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MONTHLY REVIEW o f C r e d it a n d B u s in e s s C o n d it io n s S e c o n d Federal Reserve Agent F e d e r a l R e s e r v e Federal Reserve Bank, New York RO D U C TIO N o f basic commodities and factory em ployment showed further increases in October, and distribution o f merchandise was in large volume. The general level o f wholesale prices advanced, reflecting largely a rise in the prices o f agricultural products. P P roduction The Federal Reserve B oa rd ’s index of production in basic industries, adjusted to allow fo r seasonal varia tions, increased 6 per cent, in October, and was 16 per cent, above the low point of midsummer, though still considerably below the level of the early months o f this year. Output of iron and steel, cotton and woolen textiles, lumber, and bituminous coal was substantially larger than the month before. F actory employment in creased 2 per cent, in October, reflecting larger working forces in most o f the m anufacturing industries. B uild ing contract awards increased and were 14 per cent, above a year ago. Crop estimates by the Department o f A griculture in November showed increases in the expected yields o f corn, cotton, tobacco, and potatoes. The movement o f crops to market in October reached the largest volume in five years and exports o f grain and cotton were in greater volume than in the corresponding month o f any recent year. PERCENT. Index of 22 Basic Commodities Corrected for Seasonal Variation but not for year to year growth. (1919 = 100 Per cent. Latest figure, October.) December 1,1924 T rade B u s in e s s C o n d it io n s in t h e U n i t e d S ta te s D is t r ic t Railroad freight shipments were larger in October than in any previous month, owing to exceptionally heavy loadings o f miscellaneous merchandise and grain. Wholesale trade increased 3 per cent., but was 2 per cent, less than in October 1923. Sales o f dry goods, shoes, and hardware were considerably smaller than a year ago, while sales o f groceries and drugs were larger. Department store sales showed a seasonal increase but were 4 per cent, less than last year, and sales o f mail order houses and chain stores also increased and were in greater volume than in 1923. In preparation fo r Christmas trade merchandise stocks at department stores increased substantially and were 2 per cent, larger than a year ago. P rices The wholesale price index o f the Bureau o f Labor Statistics rose 2 per cent, in October as a result o f con siderable advances in the prices o f farm products and foods, and slight increases in the prices o f clothing and chemicals. Fuel and metal prices declined and prices o f building materials and house furnishings were prac tically unchanged. D uring the first half o f November quotations on all grains, cotton, silk, copper, and rubber advanced, while prices o f raw sugar and bituminous coal declined. PER CENT. Index of U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (1913 = 100 Per cent, base adopted by Bureau. Latest figure, October) MONTHLY REVIEW, DECEMBER 1, 1924 2 Member Bank Credit— Weekly Figures for Member Banks in 101 Leading Cities (Latest Figures, November 12.) B a n k C redit Loans fo r commercial purposes at member banks in leading cities, which had increased rapidly from the beginning o f September to the middle of October, ad vanced only slightly in the follow ing fou r weeks. The growth of loans secured by stocks and bonds was also relatively small, notwithstanding great activity in the securities market. H oldings of investments by these banks continued the increase which began in the early months o f the year. A large part of the increase in demand deposits during the fou r weeks ended November 12, when they were higher than at any previous time, was in bankers’ balances indicating a continued move ment o f funds to the large centers. A t the Reserve Banks an increase in earning assets was the result o f larger offerings o f acceptances, reflect ing firmer money conditions. W hile discounts and hold ings o f United States securities remained practically unchanged during the fou r weeks ended November 19, the increase in acceptances carried total earning assets to the highest point since the early part o f the year. Money in circulation increased in October fo r the third successive month and the total on November 1 was $215,000,000 larger than in August. M oney rates continued to show a firmer tendency and by November 23 were generally from ^ to % o f one per cent, higher than in October. October. The volume o f total loans secured by stocks and bonds has also been fairly constant, notwithstanding the activity and rising prices in the stock markets, but banks have continued to increase their holdings o f in vestments, so that on November 19 both their holdings o f United States Government securities and o f other types o f stocks and bonds stood at the highest levels o f the year. The follow ing diagram indicates, through Novem ber 12, the recent course o f loans and deposits o f report ing member banks in this district and in all other sections o f the country. On that date, loans and invest ments o f these banks in the Second D istrict were $834,000,000 higher than on June 4, while deposits in the same period showed an increase o f $936,000,000. OBILLIONS FDOLLARS 1£| BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ALL REP ORTING- &ANKS EXCEPT' 2.NO- DfS'TRICT 1 TOTAL LOAIUS & ALL REP ORTING BANKS SECOf'ID DISTRliCT a J / v / / -a A f f t t f TOTAL I-OANS & INVESTl A S * / i rOTAL DE.POSITS TOTAL 1DEPOSITS B a n k in g C o n d i t io n s in t h e S e c o n d D i s t r i c t The volume o f bank credit outstanding in this district showed some further increase in November and both the total loans and investments and the total deposits o f the weekly reporting member banks reached levels somewhat higher than any previously touched this fall. The ex pansion, however, was not as rapid as during the summer and early fall, due partly to the termination o f the seasonal increase in commercial loans. These loans re mained close to the high point o f the year, whereas ordi narily they decline considerably after the middle of IANFEBM ARAPRM AYJUNJU LAU G5EPOCTN O VD EC 192.4 JANFEBM ARAPRM AYJW t JU LAU GSEPOCTN O VDEC 192.4Total Loans and Investments and Total Loans and Investments and Total Deposits of 636 Report Total Deposits of 108 Report ing Member Banks in Prin ing Member Banks in the cipal Cities Outside the Second District. (Latest Second District. (Latest figures, November 12.) figures, November 12.) D uring the latter part o f October and in November, the total earning assets o f the New Y ork Reserve Bank fluctuated about a fa irly constant level, and at $303,000,000 on November 26, were approxim ately $70,000,000 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT NEW YORK below the highest point reached in October. This decline occurred in all form s of earning assets, including loans to member banks, and holdings of purchased bills and United States securities. Reflecting a larger demand fo r currency and some reduction o f gold certificates in cir culation, the volume of Federal Reserve notes in circula tion increased and on November 26 was the largest since early in the year. M o n e y R a tes The slightly firmer money conditions apparent dur ing the early fall became somewhat more marked during November, notwithstanding the completion o f the har vesting and m ajor marketing o f the crops. Rates generally showed a further small advance, due to more active business conditions, a larger absorption o f funds by the stock market, and an increase in currency in cir culation. In the bill market, firmer conditions were manifested by higher rates and a substantial increase in sales to the Reserve Bank. A t 2 % per cent, on purchases and 2 % per cent, on sales of 90-day bills, dealers’ open market rates at the end of the month were approximately y 2 of 1 per cent, above the summer low point. Yields offered on Government short term securities also showed con siderable increases over the summer levels. The open market rate on commercial paper advanced about ^ o f 1 per cent, to 3 % per cent,, or slightly higher than at any time since July. W hile demand in New Y ork City decreased, supplies o f paper were reported larger than at the end o f October when the amount out standing by 26 dealers stood practically at the high level since 1920. In the Stock Exchange money market rates fo r 60-90 day time loans advanced to 3-3y2 per cent., compared with 2%-S per cent, during most of October, and 2y2% per cent, at the summer low point. Call loan re newals continued to be typically 2y2 per cent., but late in the month the rate for new loans touched 4 per cent, fo r the first time since May. S e c u r it y M a r k e t s A ccom panying the most active trading since 1901, price averages o f railway and industrial stocks rose after the election 6x/ 2 to 7 points, and in the latter part of November stood at the highest levels in recent years. In the case o f railway stocks, averages reached the highest points since 1917, but industrial stocks, despite large advances, remained generally about 10 points be low the 1919 high levels. On 11 days trading exceeded 2 million shares, and the number o f separate issues traded in during the month was larger than ever before. The bond market follow ing the election was also active and strong, particularly in the railway group, and cor poration issues generally sold fo r a brief period at the highest level since 1922. Later in the month, however, as money conditions grew firmer, prices showed a reac tion which was especially marked in United States securities. The follow ing diagram shows the monthly average movement o f 50 stocks, both railway and industrial com bined, since 1916, together with the movement o f bond prices and the volume o f stock market transactions. P R IC E •1201---------------- ---------------- ------------------------ ---------------- 2 ■RATE Average Prices of 50 Stocks, both Railway and Industrial, and 40 Bonds, and number of Shares Sold on the New York Stock Exchange by Months. (November sales estimated) The volume o f new securities offered declined during the first part o f November, but again became large later in the month, when the offerings included an issue o f $100,000,000 25 year 7 per cent, bonds o f the French Government, sold at a price to yield about i y 2 per cent. Noteworthy among the offerings also were several domestic railway common stock issues, which have been rare in recent years, and the appearance o f which re flects increased confidence in railway securities on the part o f investors. F o r e ig n E x c h a n g e Call Loan Renewal Rates, Open Market Rates for 4-6 Months Commercial Paper and 90-Day Bankers Acceptances, and the Federal Reserve Bank Rediscount Rate by Weeks. (Latest figures, week of November 22) Increased confidence with regard to European polit ical and economic conditions, further Am erican invest ment in foreign securities, and some transfer o f balances overseas to take advantage o f higher money rates there were m ajor factors in a rising market fo r the principal exchanges except those o f France, Belgium, Italy, and Austria. MONTHLY REVIEW, DECEMBER I, 1924 4 Sterling advanced about 13 cents to $4.64, the highest level since M ay 1923. Swedish exchange sold slightly above par, Dutch guilders reached par fo r the first time in five years, and Swiss francs were only slightly below parity. Rupees continued to establish new high levels since 1920, and substantial advances occurred also in Spanish, Norwegian, and Danish cur rencies. Japanese exchange, on the other hand, after a slight recovery, fell again practically to the October low point. On October 29 trading was begun in New Y ork in the new German reichsmark at its par value o f 23.80 cents, and this quotation has since been maintained. The new unit is officially reckoned as equivalent in value to the form er gold mark, to one rentenmark, or to one trillion paper marks. The accom panying diagram, com paring a number of leading exchanges in per cent, depreciation from par in November this year with the depreciation existing last November and at the 1920-1924 low points, indicates the return of fou r exchanges to, or practically to, par. In addition to those represented in the diagram, a number of exchanges, including those o f Austria, Italy, H un gary, and Czecho-slovakia, have been substantially stabilized, and currencies of Germany, Poland, Russia, and Latvia have been revaluated and held at the new par. LOW 1920r 1924 SWEDEN CANADA SWITZER LIND HOLLAND ENGLAND ARGENTINA JAPAN SPAIN INDIA DENMARK NORWAY B R A Z IL FRANCE BELGIUM ITALY Foreign Exchange Rates in Per cent. Depreciation from Par in November 1924, November 1923, and at the 1920-1924 Low Points Compared. British shipments to this country have fallen off rapidly and in October there were no such shipments fo r the first time since January 1920. F or the first three weeks o f November imports at the port o f New Y ork alone totaled $14,000,000, represent ing about the same daily rate as in October. E xports totaling $5,500,000, chiefly to England and South America, were at a somewhat higher rate than in October. The follow ing diagram indicates the balance o f trade in gold fo r the entire country by months through October. 191 4 1915 1917 1916 1919 192.0 19£1 19£2 1 9 ? -3 192.4 (Latest figure, F o r e ig n S h ip m e n t s o f U n it e d S t a t e s C u r r e n c y The return flow o f United States currency from circulation abroad continued in September and October with but little diminution, according to reports to this bank from 14 large banks in New Y ork City which ordi narily handle a large part o f this business. A feature o f the movement lately, has been the large increase in the receipts from Germany, accom panying the stabilization o f German currency. Such receipts in October amounted to over $5,000,000, or more than two-thirds the total, compared with $2,300,000 in June, and negligible amounts in the early months o f the year. The follow ing table gives com parative figures o f shipments and receipts for all countries since May 1923. G o ld M o v e m e n t Im ports o f gold, after declining to $6,600,000 in September, increased in October to $20,000,000, due chiefly to the receipt of $13,000,000 from the Netherlands. A s exports aggregated $4,000,000, the excess of imports was $16,000,000, an amount larger than in September, but otherwise the smallest since A p ril 1923. October imports from the Netherlands brought the total from that country fo r the first ten months o f the year to $48,000,000, or the largest amount from any country except Great Britain. D uring recent months 1916 United States Net Imports and Exports of Gold. October.) May9to3Dec (monthly av.) j an..1924... ^eb.............. June!'/.!;.;;;: Aug. oot.V.V.V.V.'.; Total (1924) __________ Shipments Receipts $3,645,000 $2,910,000 $5,694,000 6,989,000 2,095,000 940,000 292,000 681,000 199,000 117,000 251,000 247,000 $1,374,000 1,463,000 2,074,000 2,601,000 5,206,000 6,969,000 9,234,000 7,817,000 7,393,000 7,248,000 $4,320,000 5,526,000 $17,505,000 $51,379,000 $9,867,000 Net Shipments Net Receipts 21,000 $1,661,000 4.914.000 6.288.000 9.035.000 7.700.000 7.142.000 7.001.000 $43,741,000 FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT NEW YORK F o r e ig n T r a d e F or the second successive month merchandise exports in October increased by about $100,000,000, and at $527,000,000 were $128,000,000 above October last year and the largest since January 1921. As imports increased by only $23,000,000 to $310,000,000, the excess of exports was $217,000,000, likewise the largest since 1921. H eavy exports o f wheat and cotton continue to ac count in large part fo r the larger export totals. W heat shipments increased $24,000,000 over September and $58,000,000 over October last year, to the highest value o f any month, excepting one, since 1920. Cotton exports rose $25,000,000 over September, and were $7,000,000 greater than in October 1923, notwithstanding that prices were lower this year. There was also a moderate increase in the shipments o f m anufactured goods ready fo r consumption. Am ong the imports, those o f rubber increased 28 per cent, in tonnage, and were near the largest in recent years. Silk imports declined as com pared with Sep tember, but remained 21 per cent, larger than October last year. I n d e x e s o f B u s in e s s A c t i v i t y Most o f this bank’s available indexes o f distribution and general business activity reflect a continued expan sion o f trade in October. R ailway carloading o f revenue freight reached in the week o f October 25 the largest total ever recorded, due partly to new high levels reached in the movement o f merchandise and miscellaneous freight, and in grain and grain products. The accom panying diagram in dicates that the amount o f wheat marketed prior to November 1 this year has been fa r in excess o f that in any corresponding period in seven years. This heavy marketing has been reflected also in the greatly increased exports, the liquidation o f much farm indebtedness, and a substantial gain of mail order sales in agricultural districts. 518 481 OATS 32.3, 94 CORN m) \ 238 \ . m CD oo WHEAT 94 1918 1919 1920 192.1 1922 1923 1924 Receipts of Wheat, Corn, and Oats at) 14 Interior Markets between July 1 and November 1 of Seven Years. (In Millions of Bushels) Bank debits in 140 centers, excluding New Y ork City, in October were the largest fo r any month since early 1920, when prices were much higher. Increases occurred also in the indexes of factory employment and wholesale trade in October, but the index o f department store sales was somewhat lower. The follow ing table gives this bank’s indexes o f business activity in percentages o f the computed trend, after allowance fo r seasonal variation and, where necessary, fo r price changes. (Computed trend of past years=100 Per cent.) 1924 1923 Oct. Aug. Sept. Oct. Grain Exports ............................................. Panama canal traffic.................................. 107 101 113 85 106 58 132 100 97 94 98 92 84 116 103 100 102 106 106 86 125 108 98 103 lllp 106p 201 Distribution to Consumer Department store sales, Second Dist ict. Chain store sales.......................................... Mail order sales............................................ Life insurance paid for............................... Magazine advertising.................................. Newspaper advertising............................... 100 97 100 113 107 98 87 95 81 100 92 89 101 92 103 110 99 93 96 93 103 112 100 101 92 101 116 99 111 105p 105 98 95 101 111 103 104 98 109 96 106 89 103 92 103 100 108 90 87 94 92 101 Prim ary Distribution Car loadings, merchandise and misc. . . . Car loadings, other...................................... Wholesale trade, Second District............. General Business Activity Bank debits, outside of New York City. Bank debits, New York City. ................. Velocity of bank deposits, outside of New York City.................................... Velocity of bank deposits, New York City Postal receipts.............................................. Employment, N. Y. State factories........ Business failures........................................... 91 105 p=Preliminary P r o d u c tio n The expansion o f industrial activity in progress since midsummer continued during October and the first three weeks o f November. Increases o f output occurred in most o f the m ajor industries, but particularly in textile and iron and steel manufacturing. Cotton consumption in October rose nearly 100,000 bales to 91 per cent, o f normal, as measured by this ban k’s index, and in November some o f the more im por tant mills announced preparations fo r resuming fu ll time operations. In the woolen industry many o f the mills reported fu ll time and in some cases overtime operations in October, and this ban k ’s index o f woolen m ill activity rose above the com puted trend, or normal, fo r the first time since November 1923. Iron and steel production increased 10 to 20 per cent, in October to a point averaging about 50 per cent, above the July low point, and unfilled orders o f the Steel Corporation at the end o f the month showed the third successive increase. D uring the first three weeks o f November total purchases o f p ig iron were said to have reached the unusually high figure o f 1,000,000 tons, and more furnaces were put into blast. Bituminous coal output in October amounting to 47.000.000 tons exceeded the September figure by 6.000.000 tons, and was the largest since January. Cement production was only 2 per cent, below the high MONTHLY REVIEW, DECEMBER 1, 1924 6 record reached in August, while copper mining was the largest since 1918. In the automobile industry, the out put of passenger cars was slightly smaller than in September, and nearly one-fourth smaller than a year ago, but truck production was somewhat larger than in September, and in both cases the indexes o f production show a slight increase, after allowance fo r seasonal varia tion. The table gives the index numbers o f production in recent months in percentages of the com puted trend, after allowance fo r seasonal variation. (Computed trend of past years==100 Per cent.) 1923 Producers' Goods Pig iron........................................................... Steel ingots.................................................... Bituminous coal........................................... Copper, U. S. mines.................................... Tin deliveries................................................ Zinc*............................................................... Petroleum...................................................... Gas and fuel oil............................................ Cotton consumption................................... Woolen mill activity*................................. Cement........................................................... Lumber........................................................... Leather, sole................................................. 1924 Oct. Aug. Sept. Oct. 98 101 99 106 98 73 142 99 65 82 88 104 85 66 124p 94 78 75 86 94 n ip 88 69 102 135 137 58 72 74 112 84 68 126 97 63 74 149 104 91 72 148 113 78 100 140 103 130 87 126 105 114 104 142 87 127 131 125 94 87r 9 i’ 102p 147 123p 81p Consumers' Goods Cattle slaughtered....................................... Calves slaughtered...................................... Sheep slaughtered........................................ Hogs slaughtered......................................... Sugar meltings, U. S. ports....................... Wheat flour................................................... Cigars............................................................. Cigarettes...................................................... Tobacco, manufactured.............................. Gasoline......................................................... Tires*.............................................................. Newsprint...................................................... Paper, total................................................... Boots and shoes............................................ Anthracite coal............................................. Automobile, all............................................. Automobile, passenger................................ Automobile, truck........................................ *=Seasonal variation not allowed for 77 139 137 104 95 88 96 107 12(5 107 90 98 95 159 171 113 84 78 97 116 168 104 87 75 91 82 107 183 110 92 83 89 91 118 78 p=Preliminary 122 99 ii.s ’ 95 Per cent. Change from July to October Industry 96p 83 120 124 104 r=Revised E m p lo y m e n t a n d W a g e s F actory employment in New Y ork State showed a further increase o f 1.2 per cent, in the month ended October 15, and on that date was nearly 5^2 per cent, above the summer low point. W hile average weekly earnings of workers and total wage payments in the State were somewhat smaller than in September, due to the observance o f religious holidays and Columbus Day, an upw ard tendency generally throughout the country, due to less part time operations, was indicated by increases o f 2 per cent, in per capita wage earnings, and 3.7 per cent, in total wage payments reported by the Federal Department o f Labor. The diagram below indicates the recent changes in factory employment, average weekly wage earnings, and total pay rolls o f reporting firms in New Y ork State. The October increase in factory employment in this State was due partly to seasonal activity in the produc tion of holiday articles, such as confectionery, neckwear, and leather goods, but was caused also by further gains in working forces o f basic industries, such as the metals and textiles. In food products, clothing, and some branches o f the building materials industries, on the other hand, employment showed a seasonal decrease. The follow ing table indicates the changes in employment conditions in a number o f basic industries o f the State since the summer low point. 119 110 118 105p 161p S4p IlOp 114 n ip 86 78 102 Changes in Employment, in Total Wage Payments, and Average Weekly Wage Earnings in New York State Factories. (June 1914 = 100 Per cent. Latest figures, October.) Automobiles................... ...................................................... Machinery.............................................................................. Cotton goods......................................................................... Woolens and worsteds................................... ..................... Knit goods................................................. ........................... Shoes....................................................................................... Men’s clothing...................................................................... Women’s clothing................................................................ Carpets and rugs.................................................................. Cement................................................................................... Brick....................................................................................... Number of Employees +34 +17 + 3 +81 Total Wage Payments +10 + 49 + 27 + +106 + 13 + 29 + 9 — 7 4 + 14 + 17 — — 37 +19 + 5 — 1 +63 + 7 + 7 _ — 29 1 +102 10 Notwithstanding these increases and some further gains in the first part o f November, factory employment remained substantially below the high levels o f the early months o f the year, and State employment offices continue to report some surplus o f labor, chiefly among unskilled and clerical workers, but, in some localities, among skilled workers as well. W hile employment in building and road construction has been unusually well maintained, due to the m ild weather, com pletion o f fru it picking released considerable labor from the farms. The prevailing level o f wage rates remains little changed, although scattered instances o f decreases con tinue to occur, principally in the metals and textile in dustries. In New England, wage reductions by textile mills, accom panying the resumption o f more active operations were a frequent, though not general, occur rence. FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT NEW YORK 7 B u ild in g M easured either b y perm its issued or contracts actually placed, the value of new building planned continued at high levels in October. P erm its granted in 3 3 8 cities were 1 6 per cent, large r than in Septem ber and 3 per cent, above October last year, while contracts aw arded gained 19 per cent, over Septem ber and were 1 4 per cent, greater than a y e a r ago. Com parison of the figures b y districts, however, re veals considerable change recently in the sections of the country contributing most to continued expansion. W hereas du ring the early p a rt of the y e a r the N ew Y o rk district showed considerably larger gains over 1 9 2 3 in contracts aw arded than did the country as a whole, the reverse has been true in the past fe w months. The following table based on the figures of the F . W . Dodge Corporation reflects these tendencies. Per cent. Increase 1924 over 1923 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. M ay June July Aug. New York State and Northern New Jersey. All reporting districts... 69 23 87 7 77 15 27 79 19 — 13 8 5 7 10 6 19 Sept. Oct. 9 19 1 14 In the N ew Y o rk district, the October contracts, while only sligh tly above the un usually large total of October 19 2 3 , were 3 1 per cent, large r than in Septem ber and the largest since M ay. B oth in the N ew Y o rk district, and fo r the country, a considerable facto r in the larger contracts in October w as increased totals fo r public works. Dollar Value of October Sales (October 1923=100 Per cent.) Com m odity 1920 1921 1923 1924 Machine tools.................................. 85 138 136 80 65 65 65 104 94 82 89 93 F62 r 86 169 79 80 73 75 78 81 76 85 72 70 84 61 61 106 33 103 105 96 85 93 88 98 93 85 87 76 107 '1 83 97 116 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 144 115 102 98 97 86 108 93 93 93 98 99 82 91 85 Weighted Average..................... 86 77 90 100 93 (a) C o tto n ................................... (b) Silk........................................ (a) M en’s .................................... (6) W om en’s dresses................ (c) W om en’s coats and su its .. Chain Store Sales October sales b y reporting chain store system s were the largest since Decem ber 1 9 2 3 and 1 4 per cent, larger than in October last year, due p a rtly to the opening of new stores. The volume of sales per store, however, also increased and w as sligh tly larger than a y e a r pre vious fo r the first time since A p r il. Th is w as due to increases in the sales of 10-cen t and gro cery stores. In other reporting lines, sales per store rem ained below last year, although, except in shoe stores, the percentage of decrease w as sm aller than has recently been the rule. The follow ing table indicates the changes in chain store trade in October, as com pared w ith October of previous years. Type of Store W holesale Trade W holesale trade in this district in October continued at about the same level as in Septem ber but w as sm aller than in October 19 2 3 , due to un usually large sales last y e a r in some lines, p a rticu la rly clothing. Th is b a n k ’s index of trade, a fte r allowance fo r seasonal variation and price changes, has advanced steadily since Ju n e , and in October stood at 1 0 3 per cent, of the computed trend, or normal. Sales of w om en’s coats and suits were somewhat sm aller than in Septem ber, due possibly to the m ild weather, and much below the large totals of last year, w hile business in shoes, dresses, and m en ’s clothing was also sm aller than a y e a r ago. In the ease of drugs, sales were below last October, but were otherwise the largest ever recorded, and trade in hardw are and machine tools showed an im provem ent over recent months. Sales of diamonds, stationery, and silk goods con tinued above last year, and those of je w e lry were sligh tly larger than in an y corresponding month since 19 20 . The follow ing table gives com parative figures fo r October sales w ith those of previous years. 1922 Ten cent................... Per cent. Per cent. Change Dollar Value of October Sales Change in Number (October 1923=100 Per cent.) in Sales of Stores per store October 1923 October 1923 to to October 1924 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 October 1924 + 1 6 .0 + 1 6 .7 + 8 .1 + 8 .6 + 4 .3 + 1 .7 + 2 0 .6 74 69 73 81 109 92 103 70 69 78 76 100 91 94 80 77 86 81 92 92 87 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 118 114 113 107 104 102 101 + 4 .4 r 'I i — 2 .6 + 4 .4 — 1.3 — 0 .3 — 0 .2 — 16.5 ’ + 1 3 .8 77 76 83 100 114 + 0 .5 Departm ent Store Sales October sales of departm ent and apparel stores in this district were 3 per cent, larger than in October last year, whereas in Septem ber they were 1 2 per cent, larger, and in A u g u s t 7 per cent, sm aller than a yea r previous. Sales of N ew ark and B rid gep o rt departm ent stores showed considerable increases, and sm aller gains occurred in the sales of reporting stores in Buffalo, Rochester, and N ew Y o rk C ity . In Syracu se and other localities not shown separately, October sales were sligh tly below those of a y e a r previous. A substantial increase in the sales of the large apparel stores w as due largely to an expansion of store facilities. MONTHLY REVIEW, DECEMBER 1, 1924 F u rn itu re and cotton goods showed the largest in creases in sales over a y e a r ago, but sm aller gains ap peared in home furnishings, hosiery, m en ’s clothing, shoes, w om en’s ready-to-w ear accessories, and woolen goods. Sales of wom en’s clothing and silk goods were somewhat sm aller than in October 19 2 3 . The average amount of each sales check w as $3.2 6 , com pared with $ 3 .2 9 last year. Net Sales during October (October 1923=100 Per cent.) 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 New Y o r k .................................. B uffalo........................................ N ewark....................................... R ochester................................... Syracuse..................................... Bridgeport.................................. Elsewhere, 2d D ist................... A pparel....................................... All stores....................... .. M ail order houses.................... Furniture................................................ C otton good s......................................... Home furnishings................................. H osiery................................................... Mens’ and B oys’ w ear........................ Shoes................................................. W om en’s ready-to-wear accessories. W oolen goods........................................ W om en’s and Misses’ ready-to-wear Silk good s............................................... M iscellaneous........................................ Stocks of goods on hand on Novem ber 1 w ere 4 per cent, la rg e r than a y e a r ago, p a rtly due to the retard in g effect of m ild w eather on sales of apparel, and to the store expansion previously referred to. E x clu d in g the apparel stores, stocks of merchandise were little changed from a y e a r ago. Th e percentage of outstand in g orders fo r m erchandise to total purchases of the stores du rin g the previous y e a r shows a seasonal decline from 8.2 per cent, on October 1 to 6.8 per cent, on Novem ber 1 , a figure p ra ctica lly the same as that on November 1 , 1 9 2 3 . M ail order sales increased about one-third from Se p tember to October, or approxim ately the usual seasonal amount, and were 6 per cent, above October last year. Th is b a n k ’s index of m ail order sales, in w hich allow ance is made fo r seasonal variation and price changes, w as 3 per cent, above normal, as determined b y the trend of past years. PERCENT. Stock on hand N ov. 1 (N ov. 1, 1923=100 Per cent.) 84 87 87 88 82 SO 86 90 96 89 108 95 98 104 83 89 85 76 87 66 90 96 88 92 92 98 94 95 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 101 104 90 102 115 100 89 105 107 88 103 120 92 99 138 105 11S 100 98 96 98 81 114 89 91 82 100 100 103 106 105 90 87 100 92 100 86 100 85 100 90 100 100 100 89 100 87 100 88 100 106 105 101 100 99 90 137 100 104 D epartm ent Store Sales Since 1900 Th rough the courtesy of five large departm ent stores located in N ew Y o rk or nearby cities this bank has been able to secure a continuous annual record of dep art ment store sales extending back to 1900. The figures supplied include the sales of five stores from 1 9 1 1 to 19 2 4 , of fo u r stores from 19 0 2 to 19 10 , and of three stores fo r 19 00 and 19 0 1 . These figures adjusted fo r price changes and reduced to percentages of 19 2 0 sales, have been plotted in the accom panying diagram , together with the sales of the 64 departm ent stores rep orting in this district since 1 9 1 9 , and grow th of population in N ew Y o rk C ity over the 24 years. In general, it is clear that the long term trend of de partm ent store grow th has conformed fa ir ly closely to the rate of grow th of the population, w hich has ran ged from 2 to 4 per cent, a year. W h ile the period of gen e rally increasing p rosperity and risin g w ages extending from 19 0 0 to 19 0 7 witnessed a relatively ra p id grow th in departm ent store business, this w as followed b y a long period d u rin g which sales fe ll below the population trend. B egin n in g again in 1 9 1 9 , and corresponding w ith a period of high real wages, departm ent store trade has experienced another v e ry ra p id expansion, ap pro x im ating 8 per cent, a y e a r in this district. I t is notice able, however, that d u rin g the past two yea rs the curve of this increase has tended to flatten out somewhat.