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MONTHLY REVIEW o f C r e d it a n d S e c o n d Federal Reserve Agent B u s in e s s F e d e r a l R e s e r v e C o n d itio n s D is t r ic t April 1, 1925 Federal Reserve Bank, New York Business Conditions in the United States RO D U CTION in basic industries declined in F eb ruary from the high rate of output in January, but continued above the level of a year ago. Not withstanding a decline in prices o f agricultural com modities, the average o f wholesale prices rose slightly owing to a further advance in prices o f certain other commodities. P P r o d u c t io n The Federal Reserve B oa rd ’s index of production in 22 basic industries, which is adjusted to allow fo r d if ferences in the number of working days and for seasonal variations, declined 3 per cent, in February, but con tinued to be higher than at any time since the peak reached in M ay 1923. Average daily output o f iron and steel was exceptionally heavy, and copper produc tion per day was the largest since 1918. There was a slight decline in activity in the woolen industry, and more considerable reductions in the output of lumber, cement, bituminous coal, and crude petroleum. P ro duction of automobiles increased 19 per cent, in F eb ruary, the largest monthly increase in nearly two years, but the output was still over 25 per cent, smaller than a year ago. Factory employment increased by 2 per cent, in February, considerable increases being reported for the automobile, iron and steel, and clothing indus tries, while the number of workers in the packing and cement industries declined. Earnings of industrial workers in February were larger than in January, reflecting in part the resumption o f full-tim e work after the inventory period. Reports to the Department o f A griculture of inten tions to plant in 1925 indicate that the acreage of practically all grains and o f tobacco will be larger, and that o f white potatoes smaller than in 1924. T r ad e Total railroad freight movements continued at ap proxim ately the same daily rate in February as in January, and shipments o f merchandise increased in recent weeks and were much larger than a year ago. Wholesale and retail sales were smaller during February than a year ago, owing partly to the fact that this year February had one less business day. Department store sales were one per cent, smaller in February than in the corresponding month of 1924. Wholesale trade in all lines, except meats and hardware, was less than a year ago, and showed in February about the usual seasonal changes. Sales o f groceries, meats, and drugs decreased, while sales of dry goods and shoes increased. PfE? CENT. Index of 22 Basic Commodities Corrected for Seasonal Variation(1919 = 100 Per cent. Latest figure, February.) Index of U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (1913 = 100 Per Cent, base adopted by Bureau. Latest figure, February.) 2 MONTHLY REVIEW, APRIL 1, 1925 6IUJOW5 Of DOLLARS Index of Employment in Manufacturing Industries (1919 average = 100 Per cent. Latest figure, February.) P r ic e s The slight rise in the wholesale price index o f the Bureau o f Labor Statistics was due to advances in the fuel and lighting group, largely in petroleum, and in building materials, while prices o f all the other com m odity groups declined. In the first three weeks o f March prices o f hogs, cotton goods, and rubber in creased, while prices o f many other commodities decreased, the largest decreases being those fo r wheat and other grains. B a n k C r e d it Loans of member banks in principal cities continued to increase between the middle of February and the middle o f March and on M arch 11 were larger than at any time in the past fou r years. The volume o f loans fo r commercial purposes has been at a high and almost constant level since last autumn, and loans on stocks and bonds, which have increased continuously since the summer of 1924, reached in March the largest amount on record. Increases in loans were accompanied by further reduction in the holdings of securities to the lowest point since last September. A t the Reserve Banks demand for credit increased between the end o f January and the middle o f March, chiefly as the result o f the export demand fo r gold and the growth in domestic currency requirements, with the consequence that earning assets increased. A fte r March 15, however, tem porary abundance of funds arising out o f Treasury operations resulted in a sharp reduction in member bank borrowings. Somewhat firmer conditions in the money market in the latter part o f February and the early weeks of March were indicated by a rise o f the rate on 4-6 months prime commercial paper from 3 % to 4 per cent. Banking Conditions in the Second D istrict The chief banking developments in this district dur ing March were the usual Treasury transactions which occur at the quarterly tax period, and a decrease late Member Bank Credit. Weekly Figures for Member Banks in 101 Leading Cities. (Latest figures, March 11.) in the month in the amount o f funds employed in the security markets. Commercial borrow ing showed no in crease, notwithstanding a generally high level o f produ c tion and trade. The Treasury security redemptions and interest payments on M arch 14 and 16 of approxim ately $290,000,000 were considerably in excess o f income tax receipts and other collections in this district, resulting in a temporary abundance o f funds in this market which enabled member banks to reduce their borrow ings at the Reserve Bank. A s the tax checks were collected and funds were transferred to other districts money rates late in the month again became firmer and there was an increase in member bank borrow ing at the Reserve Bank. Despite the increased borrow ing late in the month loans o f the Reserve bank remained substantially below the levels prevailing in late February and early March. This followed a decrease during the month of approxi mately $120,000,000 in the loans, discounts, and invest ments o f the New Y ork City Clearing House banks. This decrease apparently reflects in large part a decline in loans on securities, accom panying the decline in stock prices. Commercial borrow ing tended to decline some what, contrary to the usual tendency towards an in crease at this season o f the year, and contrary to the tendency in other districts. M o n ey M arket F ollow ing further advances in the latter part o f February and first few days o f March, m oney rates held generally steady until after the 15th, when the market was eased, chiefly by the Treasury disbursements on tax days. Other factors making fo r easier conditions late in the month were liquidation in securities, the moderate character of seasonal commercial demands, and falling off in exports o f gold. FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT NEW YORK A fte r advancing to 4 per cent, early in the month follow ing the increase in the discount rate, commercial paper rates held steady. Dealers reported extreme scarcity of paper owing to lack o f demand fo r money on the part o f their customers. Reflection o f this scarc ity appeared in the outstandings o f 26 dealers, which, as indicated in the accom panying diagram, showed at the end of February much less than the usual seasonal increase from the first of the year. In the bill market supplies were also small and as demand increased, particularly for short maturities, fo l lowing the advance in rates of late February dealers’ portfolios fell to close to the lowest o f the year. Rates held unchanged at 3 % per cent, on dealers’ purchases of 90-day bills and 3% per cent, on their sales. The March Treasury combined offering o f approx imately $450,000,000 nine months 3 per cent, certificates, and additional 4 per cent. Treasury bonds o f 1944-54 at 100% , compared with par on the first offering o f this issue in December, was oversubscribed. In stock exchange time money rates fo r 60-90 day loans advanced from 4 to 4-4*4 early in the month, com pared with 2-2% per cent, at the summer low point. Call loan renewals during the first half of M arch were gener ally 4 per cent, or higher, so that notwithstanding declines to 3 y2 per cent, in the latter half, the average was the highest since A pril. M ILLIONS . OF DOLLARS 3 Wz 10 9 9 Q'AI 8 8 7 7 6/2 6 6 5k 5H I 5 5 4 4 y/z 5 Z °T < Z < ii 5 < & R- -J w o Z O c. x Rediscount Rates of Banks of Issue in Twenty Countries. Security M arkets Commercial Paper Outstanding—26 Dealers. (Latest figvrt. February 28.) Follow ing intense activity and rapid advances in prices since last November, stocks declined sharply under heavy liquidation in March. Averages o f representative railway and industrial issues fell from 6 to 9 points from their high levels, and at the close o f the month were back practically to the levels o f November and December. In the bond market semi-speculative and convertible issues reacted with the decline in stocks. H igh grade corporation bonds, however, held com paratively close to the y e a r’s high levels, and United States securities were generally firm. M o n e y R ates in the U .S . and Abroad Comparison of money rates in the principal financial markets o f leading countries indicates that despite the small advances here since last summer, New Y ork re mains one o f the lowest money markets o f the world. The accom panying diagram com paring the rediscount rate o f the Federal Reserve Bank of New Y ork with the rates of other central banks reflects the great scarcity o f capital existing in many other parts o f the world, and particularly in the countries of E urope where inflation has practically wiped out large amounts o f liquid capital or caused it to seek investment in countries o f more stable currencies. The scarcity o f working capital has consti tuted a serious handicap to commercial and financial recovery. D uring the past year, however, corrective tendencies have been at work, largely in the form o f short and long term, credits extended by banks and investors mainly in England and the United States. Low money rates in this market have facilitated this movement. £.710 2,505 MISCELLANEOUS LANDjBUlLDlNG.ETC OIL 1326 MANUFACTURING R A i-R O A D S PUBLIC UTILITIES 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 New Capital Issues Each Year by Types of Companies. (Refunding Issues Excluded.) In Millions of Dollars. 4 MONTHLY REVIEW, APRIL 1, 1925 The volume of new securities was large and offerings were generally rapidly sold. W hile the volume of foreign issues was not as large as in recent months, the total sold here thus fa r this year continues larger than a year ago. Public utility issues continued to constitute an important share of the domestic offerings. The dia gram on page 3, com paring new capital issues, exclusive o f refunding issues, by years, reflects the steady expan sion of public utility capitalization. Railroads have likewise been using increased amounts of new capital, and new capital has also gone into land and building enterprises. In the cases of m anufacturing and oil com panies, however, the volume of new capital has fallen off considerably from the totals reached in 1919 and 1920. Foreign Exchange F eb ru a ry ’s reaction in foreign exchange rates was follow ed by a generally rising tendency in March. Sterl ing rose from $4.74 to $4.78, Norwegian and Danish ex changes advanced strongly to new high levels since 1923, and French, Italian, and Swiss exchanges were slightly firmer. Swedish and German rates were little changed at par or above, and Dutch guilders held steady some what under par. A m ong F ar Eastern rates the Japanese yen continued to advance and at 42 cents on March 16 was nearly 4 cents above the low point reached last December. Indian rupees were likewise strong, but Chinese ex changes declined accom panying a reaction in silver to approxim ately the January low point of 67 cents. In South America, Argentine rates showed a further reces sion from their recent high levels, but Brazilian exchange was somewhat firmer. Austria, after maintaining the stabilized value o f the krone since August 1922, introduced the schilling, a new unit of currency fo r which the conversion rate was 10,000 krone. This was quoted in the New Y ork market at 14.125 cents. Other revaluated currencies created in Europe have been the Russian chervonetz, the Polish zloty, the German reichsmark, the Latvian lat and the Lithuanian lit. Poland, H olland, and England. O f imports of $3,600,000, approxim ately two-thirds came from Canada. F or the three months from December 1 to February 28 the net gold export was $145,000,000. Foreign Trade Both imports and exports o f merchandise fell off in February largely from seasonal causes, but the decline in exports was $74,000,000 while that o f imports was only $12,000,000, so that the export balance was reduced further to $39,000,000, com pared with $216,000,000 at the high point o f the cotton and grain movement last fall. The accom panying diagram showing recent foreign trade tendencies o f this country reflects the large in crease in the export balance last fa ll and compares it with the even sharper rise in the im port balance shown by the British trade figures. In both cases these move ments reflect heavy trade in cotton and grain at high prices, and it is notable that despite this heavy debit balance o f merchandise sterling should have made so strong a recovery during the year. One explanation apparently lies in Great Britain ’s large invisible exports in the form of income from investments abroad and profits on shipping, banking, and other services, which are estimated by the British B oard o f Trade to have more than covered the merchandise im port excess in 1924. A further highly im portant influence in the strength o f sterling has been the heavy European loans in this market which have tended to lighten the burden of financing heretofore resting on the pound. O j-------- r IS---------- exports! A. 554 H JMPORT5 nl SIS , / ? 397 1 \1 ,73 J ittpor . fV fN .A • V ' ' tEXPO K T5 G old M o vem en t A decrease in the outward movement of gold during March was indicated by shipments of $19,000,000 from the P ort o f New Y ork during the first 25 days o f the month. Of this amount, $5,000,000 represented a ship ment to Argentina and $12,500,000 withdrawals by Germany from deposits which had been earmarked for some time at the Reserve Bank. There were practically no shipments to India, follow ing the heavy movement o f recent months, but substantial exports o f silver con tinued to be made to that country. A s imports o f gold at the P ort of New Y ork in the 25 days of March were about $3,000,000, chiefly from England, the net export balance fo r the period was $16,000,000. Final figures on the February gold movement fo r the United States showed total exports o f $51,000,000, in cluding $17,000,000 to Australia, $16,000,000 to British India, $12,500,000 to Germany, and $1,000,000 each to o UNITED STATES . . 1922. 1 9X3 ' 192.4- 19X5 GREAT15RITAIN 0 ........ i ... . 1922 1923 5924 1925 United States and British Exports and Imports (Pounds converted to Dollars at the Current Rates of Exchange). Latest figures, February. Production Most o f this ban k ’s indexes o f basic production in individual lines continued at high levels in February, though in some industries there was little further expan sion, and in others some decrease in activity. The daily rate o f p ig iron production increased an additional 5 % per cent, in February, but the rate o f steel output was little changed from that of January, and in March a slight reduction in m ill operations occurred. Much o f the m ill activity was reported to be the result o f calls fo r delivery against orders already placed, and FEDERAL RESERVE ACCENT AT NEW YORK new buying was said to be considerably below produc tion. W hile unfilled orders of the Steel Corporation showed an unexpectedly large increase at the end of February, unfilled orders of independent mills were gen erally believed to be smaller. Cotton consumption in February was the largest for that month o f any year excepting 1923, and silk mill operations were apparently close to or above all previous high levels. W oolen mill activity, while somewhat lower than in January, continued at a rate close to estimated normal as measured by the trend of past years. Production of automobiles increased substantially and was larger in the case of trucks than in any previous February, though smaller in the case of passenger cars than in February o f either 1923 or 1924. Copper p ro duction was exceptionally heavy, and increases occurred in the indexes for production o f wheat flour, newsprint paper, and boots and shoes. In bituminous coal mining, on the other hand, activity fell rapidly, and by the middle of March the daily rate was nearly 32 per cent, below the January high point. Cement production was likewise curtailed, and fo r the first time in recent years fell below the corresponding month o f the year previous. The follow ing table gives this bank’s indexes of pro duction as percentages o f estimated normal, after allow ance fo r seasonal variation. (Computed trend of past years=100 Per cent.) 1924 Producers’ Goods Pig iron........................................................... Steel ingots.................................................... Bituminous co a l........................................... Copper, U. S. m ines.................................... Tin deliveries................................................ Z in c................................................................. Petroleum ...................................................... Gas and fuel oil............................................ Cotton consum ption................................... W oolen mill activity*................................. Cement........................................................... Lum ber........................................................... Leather, sole................................................. 1925 Feb. Dec. 105 118r 113 107r 151 95r 134 112 r 98 102 r 75 111 95 96 129r 145 84 92 105r 116 107 92 100 126r 122 87 C onsum ers ’ Goods Cattle slaughtered....................................... Calves slaughtered...................................... Sheep slaughtered........................................ H ogs slaughtered......................................... Sugar meltings, U. S. p orts....................... W heat flou r................................................... C igars.............................................................. Cigarettes....................................................... T obacco, m anufactured............................. Gasoline.......................................................... Tires*.............................................................. Newsprint...................................................... Paper, to ta l................................................... Boots and shoes........................................... Anthracite co a l............................................. Automobile, a ll............................................. Automobile, passenger................................ Automobile, tru ck ........................................ 105 148 92 118 120 r 107r 101 79 106 130 149 115 107 94 109 151 155 137 109 174 81 119 85r r 101 100 84 98 133 165 106 102 79 86 97 92 118 Jan. 102 113r 109 109r 130 97r 122 111 96 98 145r 146 78 110 112 116r 103r 102 90 111 138 149 83 169 109 105 76 90 Feb. 106 113r 96 lllr 119 97r io i 97 p 119r 139p 102 158 ________________ (Computed trend of past years=100 Per cent.) 1924 Primary Distribution Car loadings, merchandise and misc....... Car leadings, other...................................... Wholesale trade, Second D istrict............ E xports........................................................... Im ports........................................................... Grain e x p o r ts ............................................... Panama Canal tra ffic.................................. Distribution to Consumer Department store sales, Second D is t.. . . Chain store sales.......................................... Mail order sales............................................ Life insurance paid fo r ............................... Magazine advertising.................................. Newspaper advertising............................... General Business Activity Bank debits, outside of New York C ity. Bank debits, New Y ork C it y ................... Velocity of bank deposits, outside of New York C ity .................................... Velocity of bank deposits, New York _ C it y ... ................................................... Postal^ receipts.......................................... Electric pow er.......................................... Employment, N. Y . State fa ctories.. . Business failures...................................... Building perm its...................................... 1925 Feb. Dec. Jan. Feb. Ill 119 103 104 113 96 94 112 109 102 111 95 117 64 147 110 93 89 108 93 110 90p 109p 120 67 95 102 103 99 104 125 98 92 97 92 98 98 92 91 107 95 95 96 98 109 118 104 118 112 122 111 100 r 101 10lr lllr 104 108 99 94 207r 92r lO lr 107r 103 107 91 lllr 98 106 92 98 159r 111 171r 101 99 98 93 127 1198.2r ’ 92 96 181r p =Preliminary r=R evised 85 103 E m ploym ent and W ages i04r 95 78 103 A fte r a slight seasonal decline in January, factory employment in New Y ork State increased nearly 2 per cent, in February to a point 8 per cent, above the low point o f the summer. Em ploym ent in the iron and steel industry, which has accounted fo r much o f the gain in past months, was practically unchanged at the high levels recently attained, but increases were rather general in other lines, including particularly clothing, shoes, auto mobiles, and textiles other than cotton goods which were affected by a strike against wage reductions. In cement and brick plants, on the other hand, employment fell to the lowest level in three years, accom panying reduc tion in building operations within the district. A part from the wage decreases announced in some branches o f the cotton goods industry, no important wage changes were made within the district during the past month. Over the past year, however, a review of iii 100 94 ‘ 9 ip 102 110 106 123r 126 *=Seasonal variation not allowed for p=Preliminary r —Revised Indexes of Business A ctivity Indexes of distribution of goods and general business activity generally showed trade in February and early March proceeding at an exceptionally high level. Bank debits were larger than in corresponding weeks of any previous year, and even excluding New Y ork City, where speculative activity was intense, averaged 10 to 13 per cent, above estimated normal as measured by the trend of past years. Railway carloadings of merchandise and miscellaneous freigh t likewise con tinued larger than ever before at this season, but loadings of other freight, while at high levels, tended during the latter part of February and first two weeks of March to fall below a year ago. Evidence also o f active trade appeared in advances in the indexes fo r wholesale trade, department store and chain store sales, and sales by mail order houses. The follow ing table reflects these changes, and gives also other indexes o f business in percentages of the com puted trend, after allowance fo r seasonal variation and, where necessary, for price changes. MONTHLY REVIEW, APRIL 1, 1925 6 the figures indicates that in almost every month since last May there have been more persons affected by wage reductions than by wage increases. The accompanying diagram shows this, but indicates also that the number included in reductions has been small com pared with the general movement towards higher wages in 1923. A pparently manufacturers thus fa r at least have been meeting high labor costs in a large measure by increas ing industrial efficiency, rather than by cutting wages, a conclusion which is supported by other evidences of increased output o f goods per worker. THOUSANDS OF EMPLOYEES Wage Changes in New York State by Months. (Latest figure, February.) PERCENT. 100 i g kL A fK B W/// 80 77777//W//A ■7/7/77/ 60 Despite the prevailing high level o f wages, figures recently made public from the 1923 Census o f M anufac tures indicate no im portant change in recent years in the proportion o f the total value o f m anufactured prod ucts represented by wages. W hile considerable varia tions have occurred in individual industries, due to special conditions within those industries, it seems apparent that fo r m anufacturing as a whole the higher wage rates have been largely offset by increased output o f goods per worker, so that few er workers have been required, and the aggregate wage bill in consequence kept down. The diagram at the foot o f the page shows fo r census years since 1899 the percentages o f the total value of m anufactured products paid out in wages and compares them with the percentages paid fo r materials, and with the balance left fo r salaries, interest, selling expense, profit, etc., both fo r all m anufacturing industries and fo r various selected industries. It w ill be seen that, fo r all industries combined, wages come second to materials as a m ajor item o f cost. The proportion varies, however, in the separate industries; it is com paratively high in industries involving relatively skilled labor, such as jew elry, glass, and furniture, and low in industries requiring a large amount o f unskilled labor, such as meat packing, and iron and steel making. These proportions likewise often vary considerably within the same indus try over a period o f years, as is indicated in the diagram, particularly by the figures fo r the automobile, cement, and glass industries. STEEL W ORKS & R O L L IN G M IL L 5 ALL M A N U F A C T U R IN G y /77/m W M W a g e s a n d O t h e r C o s t s in P r o d u c t i o n m i i i i S L A U G H T E R IN G f r M E A T P A C K IN G * CEMENT iH■ jfBlglil C O S T OF MAT E R IA L :5 40 20 m m A G - I -7 7 v/ m < w M 01 1399 '04 percent . 100 if '0 9 - ’14 ■ HIB B l I '19 21*23 1999 ’04 M OTOR V E H IC L E S WMW/A ICE^ 80 8 7////7/M i f W /i 60 m i *09 '14 ’19*21 23 1899 '04 S IL K G O O D S *09 *14 *19 *2t *23 1899 ’04 *09 *14 ‘ 19 '21 *25 ‘04 F U R N IT U R E '09 *M ’ 19 '21 '2? JE W E LR Y W/, ! 11 c O ST' OF M/0 “ EF UALs 40 20 1 fA G J il■ 1899 ’04- '09 '14 ‘f'- 1 '19 *21‘25 1899 '04 '09 '14 *19 ’2175 1899 '04 '09 '14 *19 *21*23 1899 ‘04 *09 '14 Percentages of Total Value of Manufactured Products Represented by Wages and Cost of Materials. Remaining for Interest, Dividends, Taxes, Selling Expenses, etc. ‘ 19’21’23 1899 '04 *09 '14 *19 ‘2r23 Balance Represents Percentage FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT AT NEW YORK B u ild in g B uilding figures fo r February show a substantial fall ing off in contracts awarded in the New Y ork district, but due to increases elsewhere the total figures fo r the country continued close to the high levels o f a year ago. As shown by the diagram below, contracts placed in this district were the smallest fo r any month in two years and more than 40 per cent, below February 1924. This decline was due chiefly to a decrease in residential con tracts in New Y ork City, where the volume o f such build ing has been unusually large fo r the past two years. in many individual lines. The break was particularly sharp in wheat, which at the low point of $1.51 a bushel at Chicago fo r the May delivery was down 50 cents from the high point. Later, however, there was a re covery to $1.66. Corn prices on March 27 showed a net decline o f 29 cents, and there were decreases during the month in a large number o f industrial raw materials. Both the pig iron and finished steel price indexes main tained by the Iron A ge reverted to the levels o f last December, copper at 13% cents was down over a cent from the high point, while silk, wool, lead, hides, lumber, and petroleum all showed decreases o f varying amounts. P artly offsetting these declines were advances aver aging over a cent a pound in cotton, and a rise in hog prices to the highest level since 1920. Cattle prices remained generally steady, and rubber continued its recovery to new high levels fo r recent years. Due largely to these advances, this ban k ’s weekly index of 20 basic commodities, while 1.9 per cent, lower on March 21 than at the beginning o f the month, continued at relatively high levels. The accom panying diagram shows the course o f this index and compares it with a similar index fo r Great Britain, which in the last two months is shown to be below the Am erican index for the first time since March 1923. Value of Building Contracts Awarded in New York State and Northern New Jersey and in other Reporting States. (Latest figures, February.) Figures fo r the first two months o f the year reflect a change since last year in the type of construction. Decline in residential and industrial building fo r all reporting States was practically offset by an increase in commercial buildings, public works and utilities, and miscellaneous projects. The follow ing table com paring contracts fo r the New Y ork district and all districts in January and February by types o f construction, reflects these tendencies. JAN FEB-MAR APR MAYJUN-JUL- AU&-5EP OCT- NOV-DEO JAM- FIB* MARAPR MAY Jlffl \JUl- AUS-SfP OCT-NCV-DfC- ___________________________________(000 omitted)___________________________________ New York State and Northern New Jersey- Type First 2 mos. 1925 Change from 1924 1925 Price Indexes of 20 Basic Commodities in the United States and in England. 1913 = 100 Per cent. (Latest figures, March 21.) 36 States First 2 mos. 1925 Change from 1924 Residential........................................ C om m ercial....................................... Public W orks and U tilities........... Industrial........................................... Educational....................................... All other............................................. $ 77,208 — $66,059 43,195 + 13,283 17,813 + 6,966 26 8,836 — 9,216 — 4,643 18,084 + 8,203 $263,175 — $49,090 106,197 + 20,680 88,327 + 21,991 40,222 — 3,607 35,617 — 14,057 62,115 + 17,855 T o ta l............................................... $174,352 — $42,276 $595,653 — $ 6,228 Com m odity Prices The symptoms o f irregularity which appeared in many o f the com modity markets at the high points reached in January and February were followed in M arch by a reactionary tendency which was pronounced 1924 This bank’s index of the general price level, which includes not only wholesale prices but retail prices, rents, and wages, stood in February at 185 per cent, o f the 1913 average, the same as in January, com pared with 182 per cent, in February o f last year. W h o le s a le T r a d e February sales o f representative wholesale dealers in this district averaged 4 per cent, smaller than a year ago, when sales were large partly because o f one more selling day in the month due to leap year. This ban k’s index, which measures trade in percentages o f estimated normal as shown by the general trend o f past years, advanced from 96 in January to 102 in February and was the highest since October 1924. MONTHLY REVIEW, APRIL 1, 1925 Sales o f silk goods and commission house sales o f cot ton goods continued to make the best showing as com pared with a year previous. M en ’s clothing, diamonds, drugs, and shoes, however, also showed increases, but in other lines losses occurred ranging from 1 per cent, in the case of stationery to 27 per cent, in the case of machine tools. Available figures on wholesale stocks showed fo r the second month decreases as com pared with the year pre vious in the cases o f shoes, hardware, silks, and cotton goods in job b ers’ hands, but increases in the stocks of groceries, jew elry, and diamonds. The follow in g table gives detailed comparisons on sales and stocks in Feb ruary o f this year and last year. Net Sales Percentage Change Stock at end of month Percentage Change Com m odity Groceries................................. M en’s clothing....................... W om en’s dresses................... W om en’s coats and suits. .. C otton-Jobbers..................... Cotton-Commission houses. Silk g o o d s ............................... Shoes........................................ D rugs....................................... Hardware................................ Machine to o ls ........................ Stationery............................... P ap er....................................... D iam onds............................... Jewelry.................................... W eighted Average. Jan. 1925 to Feb. 1925 Feb. 1924 to Feb. 1925 Jan. 1925 to Feb. 1925 Feb. 1924 to Feb. 1925 —11.6 — 7.4 + 8.4 — 13.2 — 9.4 — 18.8 + 18.4 +15.7 + 4 .2 + 1 9 .8 + 6.0 — 2.2* +10.2 — 17.3 +69.7 — 15.9 +54.7 +38.0 — 6.2 + 5.3 + 5.3 + 0.8 + 1.1 — 2.0 — 27.4 — 0.8 — 2.1 + 2.4 — 1.5 + 2.0 — 10.5 — 2.3 + 4.2 — 7.5* — 16.4 + 7.8 — 11.4 + 5.1 —10.8 +10.1 + 1 4 .8 + 2 6 .4 — 4 .4 *Stock at first of month— quantity not value Chain Store Sales February combined sales by reporting chain store sys tems show an increase of nearly 14 per cent, over a year previous. A s the number of stores increased by approx imately the same amount, sales are shown to have kept pace with store expansion despite the shorter month this year than last. This has been due largely, however, to increases in sales per store of 10-cent, grocery, and drug chains, which offset substantial decreases in sales per store of shoe and tobacco chains. In the cases o f dry goods and candy chains, sales per store also showed de creases, but these were small enough to be accounted fo r by the shorter month. Percentage Change February 1924 to February 1925 T ype of Store Number of Stores Total Sales Sales per Store G rocery..................................................................... D ry g ood s................................................................ Ten C en t.................................................................. S hoe............................................... ....................... C an dy........................................................................ D rug.......................................................................... T o b a cco .................................................................... + 1 5 .8 + 1 9 .0 + 7 .5 + 2 2 .8 + 4 .8 — 0 .7 + 4 .1 + 1 7 .9 + 1 5 .9 + 1 1 .5 + 7 .1 + 1.4 + 1.0 — 4 .2 + 1 .7 — 2 .6 + 3 .7 — 12.8 — 3 .2 + 1 .7 — 8 .0 T o ta l..................................................................... + 1 3 .7 + 1 3 .6 — 0 .1 D e p a r t m e n t S t o r e B u s in e s s Department store sales in this district were 4 per cent, larger in February than a year ago, notwithstand ing the fact that there was one less selling day this year than last. A pparel stores continued to report a substantial increase, due partly to store expansion, and mail order sales throughout the country were nearly 10 per cent, above February last year. Department store stocks o f merchandise on hand at the end o f the month were 3 per cent, larger than at the end o f February 1924, the largest increase over a year previous since last A pril. Owing, however, to the increase in sales, the ratio o f sales to average stocks valued at selling price was practically the same as last year, or 28 per cent. The average amount o f the indi vidual sales transaction was $2.75, com pared with $2.60 in Februarv 1924. Net Sales Percentage Change February 1924 to February 1925 Elsewhere..................................................... Northern New York State ................. Central New Y ork S tate...................... Southern New York S tate................... Hudson River Valley D istrict............. Capital D istrict...................................... Westchester D istrict.............................. + + + — + — + — — + + + — All department stores................................ + 4 .0 + 3 .3 Apparel stores............................................. Mail order house*....................................... + 2 1 .3 + 9 .8 + 4 2 .9 B uffalo........................................................... R ochester..................................................... Syracuse........................................................ N ewark......................................................... 3 .8 3 .9 8 .2 5 .2 8 .6 3 .8 1.3 8 .9 1 .6 0 .3 1.6 8 .6 6 .7 Stock on Hand Percentage Change February 29, 1924 to February 28, 1925 + — + + + + — 4 .1 3 .2 2 .5 7 .2 7 .4 4 .0 3 .7 Comparison of sales by m ajor departments indicated large increases in the sales o f furniture and of m en ’s and w om en’s apparel. Sales of radio also showed a large increase after running somewhat below a year previous in January, Changes in sales and stocks of various m ajor departments, as com pared with a year ago, are shown in the follow ing table. Furniture...................................................... M en’s and B oys’ wear............................... H osiery.......................................................... W om en’s and Misses’ ready-to-wear. . . Linens and handkerchiefs......................... Cotton good s ............................................... M en's furnishings....................................... Shoes.............................................................. W om en’s accessories.................................. Home furnishings....................................... Silverware and jew elry.............................. Toilet articles and drugs........................... W oolen good s............................................... Miscellaneous............................................... Net Sales Percentage Change February 1924 to February 1925 Stock on Hand Percentage Change February 29, 1924 to February 28, 1925 + 2 2 .5 + 1 3 .2 + 1 1 .3 + 8 .6 + 6 .7 + 5 .3 + 5 .2 + 4 .8 + 4 .3 + 3 .7 + 2 .6 + 1.7 + 1.1 — 0 .6 + 8 .4 — 2 .7 + 9 .0 — 8 .8 — 2 .5 + 2 .9 — 4 .3 + 1 1 .0 — 7 .0 — 1.9 — 0 .3 + 0 .6 + 2 .5 + 1 3 .6 — 4 .2 — 1.4
@FedFRASER