Full text of Economic Indicators : September 1952

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82d Congress, 2d Session

Economic Indicators
SEPTEMBER I9S2
Prepared for the joint Committee on the Economic Report




by the Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1952

JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, Chairman
EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Vice Chairman
JOHN J. SPARKMAN, Alabama
PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois
WILLIAM BENTQN, Connecticut
ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio
RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont
ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah

WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas
RICHARD BOLLING, Missouri
CLINTON D. McKINNON, California
JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan
CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts
J. CALEB BOGGS, Delaware
GROVBR W. ENSLBY, Staff Director
JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
(Created pursuant to Sec. 4 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
LEON H. KEYSERLING, Chairman
JOHN D. CLARK
ROBERT C. TURNER

[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sx CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [3. J. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives 0f the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint
Committee on the Economic Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators/'
and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the
Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two
copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint
Committee on the Economic Report; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for
distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed
for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949Charts draivn by Graphics Unit, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce

11




Contents
THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY

Pjige

The Nation's Economic Accounts
Gross National Product

1
2

PRICES
Consumers' Prices
Wholesale Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
Stock Prices.

3
4
5
6

EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
Civilian Labor Force
Nonagricultural Employment—Selected Industries
Average Weekly Hours—Selected Industries
Average Hourly Earnings—Selected Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries

*

'. .

7
8
9
10
11

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production
.
Weekly Production—Selected Indicators
Production of Selected Manufactures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
New Construction
New Housing Starts
„
Inventories and Sales
Merchandise Exports and Imports

...

12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

PURCHASING POWER
National Income. . .
Corporate Profits
Personal Income
Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving
Per Capita Disposable Income
Farm Income

21
22
23
24
25
26

CREDIT, MONEY, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
Bank Loans and Investments
Consumer Credit
Bond Yields and Interest Rates
Money Supply
Federal Budget Receipts and Expenditures
Federal Cash. Receipts From and Payments to the Public




27
28
29
30
31
32

in

THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS
On the basis of the income and product accounts, the approximate balance between government expenditures and
receipts in the first quarter changed to an excess of expenditures of $3 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in
the second quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

ANNUAL TOTALS

CONSUMERS

DISPOSABLE INCOME

EXPENDITURES

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

!

I

I

BUSINESS

INVESTMENT-^

OSS RETAINED
EARNINGS2/

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

GOVERNMENT-FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL
EXPENDITURES FOR GOODS
AND SERVICES

^EXCESS OF RECEIPTS

2

3

1952

1953

I/ INCLUDES NET FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN ADDITION TO GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT.
2/ INCLUDES UNDISTRIBUTED CORPORATE PROFITS AND CORPORATE INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT, AND CAPITAL CONSUMPTION ALLOWANCES.
NOTE: THE SUM OF THE THREE INCOME AND RECEIPT ITEMS SHOWN IN THIS CHART IS NOT EQUAL TO THE SUM OF THE EXPENDITURES, OR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT, BECAUSE OF
STATISTICAL DISCREPANCIES. FOR EXPLANATION AND USE OF THIS ARRANGEMENT, SEE SENATE REPORT NO. 1295, JOINT ECONOMIC REPORT, PR 92-93, 99-106, AND THE
MIDYEAR ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JULY 1952, APPENDIX A.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE




COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
In the second quarter of 1952, gross national product was almost $4 billion higher (seasonally adjusted annual rate)
than in the previous quarter. National security expenditures increased about $4 billion, while the rise of about
$2 billion in personal consumption was approximately offset by a decrease in other government expenditures and in
investment (domestic and foreign).
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1940

42

44

BILLIONS OF DOLL

46

48

50

52

3

4

1953
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COM MERGE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
Total gross
national
product

Period

1939
1944 .
1946
1947
1948- ._ ...
1949
1950
1951_. _ _. „ _

„ .

91.3
213.7
211. 1
233.3
259. 0
258.2
284. 2
329. 2

Personal
private Net foreign
consump- Gross
domestic
investment
tion expend- investment
itures
67.5
111.6
146. 9
165.6
177. 9
180. 6
194.3
208. 0

9.9
7.7
28.7
30.2
42. 7
33.5
50. 3
58.5

0.9
— 2. 1
4.6
8.9
1. 9
.5
-2.3
.2

Government purchases of goods and
services
Total
13. 1
96.5
30.9
28.6
36.6
43.6
41.9
62.6

National
security l

Other

2

1.2
87.5
18. 5
12.0
15.5
18.9
18. 3
36.7

11.9
9.0
12.4
16.6
21. 1
24. 7
23.6
25.9

22. 1
27.3
34.5
41. 1
43.8
46.0
49,9

23.8
24. 6
25.3
26.2
27.4
28.4
28.1

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1950: Fourth quarter
1951: First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter _ _
Fourth quarter
1952: First quarter,
Second quarter

304.2
319.6
329. 3
330.9
337. 1
339.4
343.2

199.4
210.5
204.5
206. 4
210.5
213.2
214.9

61.6
59.8
65.2
56.2
52.9
50.0
49. 3

-2.7
-2.7
-.2
1. 1
2.6
1.9
.9

45.9
51.9
59.8
67.3
71.2
74.4
78.0

i Includes) xpenditures for military services, international security and foreign relations (except foreign loans), atomic energy, merchant marine, promotion of
defense production and economic stabilization, and civil defense; excludes Federal Government sales. For further detail, see Midyear Economic Report of the
President.
July 1952 (p. 139), and Survey of Current Business, July 1952 (p. 12).
3
Residual; expenditures by the Federal Government for other than "national security" and total expenditures by State and local governments.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add tp totals bepaus,e o,f rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce,




PRICES
CONSUMERS' PRICES
Consumers1 prices advanced 0.6 percent from June 1 5 to July 1 5. All major categories of the index except apparel
and housefurnishings increased, with average food prices rising 11/2 percent.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
250

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

250

J F M A M J J A S O N D

F M A M J J A S O N D

1952

1947

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1935-39=100]
Period
1939
1943
1944
1945
1946
1948
1949
1950

monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
June 15
1951 monthly average
1951: June 15
July 15
August 15 ._ -.
September 15
October 15
November 15
December 15
1952: January 15
February 15
March 15
April 15
May 15
June 15
July 15 _ > _ _ _

All items

99.4
123.7
125. 7
128. 6
139.5
171. 9
170. 2
171. 9
170. 2
185.6
185 2
185. 5
185. 5
186. 6
187. 4
188. 6
189. 1
189. 1
187. 9
188. 0
188. 7
189 0
189. 6
190. 8

Food

95. 2
138.0
136. 1
139. 1
159.6
210. 2
201. 9
204. 5
203. 1
227. 4
226 9
227. 7
227. 0
227 3
229. 2
231. 4
232. 2
232. 4
227. 5
227. 6
230. 0
230 8
231. 5
1
234. 9

Apparel

100. 5
129.7
138. 8
145. 9
160.2
198. 0
190. 1
187. 7
184 6
204 5
204 0
203 3
203 6
209 0
208 9
207. 6
206 8
204 6
204. 3
203 5
202 7
202 3
202 0
201 4

Rent

Fuel, electricity, and
refrigeration

104. 3
108.7
109. 1
109.5
110. 1
121.2
126. 4
131.0
130 9
136.2
135 7
136 2
136 8
137 5
138. 2
138. 9
139 2
139 7
140. 2
140 5
140. 8
141 3
141. 6
141. 9

i Based on a special survey, the food index for August 15 is estimated at 235.6, or 0.3 percent above July 15,
NOTE.—Revised index of prices for moderate-income families in large cities.
Source: Department of Labor*




99.0
107. 7
109. 8
110. 3
112.4
133. 9
137. 5
140.6
139 1
144. 1
143. 6
144. 0
144. 2
144. 4
144. 6
144. 8
144. 9
145. 0
145. 3
145. 3
145. 3
144 6
144. 8
146. 4

Housefurnishings

101. 3
125.6
136.4
145.8
159.2
195. 8
189.0
190.2
184. 8
210. 9
212. 5
212.4
210. 8
211. 1
210. 4
210. 8
210. 2
209. 1
208. 6
207. 6
206. 2
205. 4
204. 4
^204. 2

Miscellaneous

100. 7
115.8
121. 3
124. 1
128.8
149.9
154. 6
156.5
154 6
165.4
164 8
165 0
165 4
166 0
166 6
168. 4
169 1
169 6
170. 2
170 7
171. 1
171 4
172 5
173. 0

WHOLESALE PRICES
In July, average wholesale prices rose 0,5 percent reflecting increases of 2.8 and 1.4 percent in farm products and
processed foods respectively/ industrial prices were unchanged. Weekly indexes for August indicate a continuance
of the upward trend in food prices.
PERCENT OF 1947-49 AVERAGE
120

PERCENT OF 1947-49 AVERAGE
120

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1947-49=100]
Period
1942 monthly average
_____
1946 monthly average „
_ _ __ _
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
. _ __ _
1949 monthly average
1950 monthly average
.
June
1951 monthly average
1951: June
„__ _
July
August-- _
September
OctoberNovember. _ _ _
December
1952: January
February __
_
March _
April
May_.
June
July .
Week ended:
1952: August 5
12 . _ _
«
19
26

All commodities

Farm
products

64 2
78. 7
96 4
104. 4
99 2
103 1
100 2
114. 8
115. 1
114 2
113. 7
113 4
113. 7
113. 6
113 5
113 0
112. 5
112 3
111. 8
111. 6
111. 2
111. 8

59. 2
83. 2
100 0
107. 3
92 8
97 5
94 5
113 4
113. 9
111 1
110. 4
109 9
111 5
112. 0
111 3
110 0
107. 8
108 2
108. 7
107. 9
107. 2
110. 2

111 9
112. 0
112. 2
111.9

110 1
110.0
110. 1
108. 8

i Not available.
NOTE.—Revised index. For description of the revision see The Monthly Labor Review, February 1952,
Source: Department of Labor.




98. 2
106. 1
95. 7
99. 8
96. 8
111. 4
111. 3
110 7
111. 2
110 9
111. 6
111. 0
110. 7
110 1
109. 5
109. 2
108. 0
108. 6
108. 5
110. 0

Other than
farm products
and foods
(industrial)
68 3
78. 3
95. 3
103. 4
101 3
105. 0
102 2
115. 9
116. 2
115. 7
114. 9
114 8
114. 6
114. 5
114. 6
114 3
114.2
113. 8
113.3
113. 0
112. 6
112. 6

110. 4
110. 8
111. 1
110.9

112. 7
112. 7
112. 8
112. 8

Processed
foods
C1)
«

PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received by farmers were unchanged from July 15 to August 1 5. Although the index of prices paid advanced
1 point, the increase was not sufficient to change the parity ratio from the July level of 103.
PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE

350

S_xPARITY INDEX)
(PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES,
AND WAGE RATES)

I i

\ i iii ii i it i
1952

f950

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.

[1910-14=100]
Prices
received
by farmers

Period

1939 monthly average
:
1942 monthly average
1944 monthly average _ _ _ _ - _ _ _
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average _ _
_ _
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average _
_ _
1950 monthly average
June 15
1951 monthly average-,
1951: July 15
August 15
September 15 _
October 15
November 15_
_
December 15
...
1952: January 15
February 1 5 . _ _
March 15
April 15
_
May 15
.
June 15___ _ _ .
July 15
" August 15
_
1
J

_ _

'.

2
2

_:

__

_ _ - _

.

__-

__ _
_
_ _ _ _ _ _
_ __
__
__
___
_

__

__

Parity index
(prices paid,
interest, taxes, Parity ratio *
and wage
rates)

275
285
249
256
247
302
294
292
291
296
301
305

281
282
282
282
283
284
284

78
105
108
113
115
110
100
100
97
107
104
104
103
105
106
107

300
289
288
290
293
292
295
295

287
288
288
289
289
286
286
287

105
100
100
100
101
102
103
103

95
158

196
234

122
151
182
207
239
259
250
255

254 '

Eatio of index of prices received by farmers to parity index..
Includes wartime subsidy payments paid on beef cattle, sheep, lambs, milk, and butterfat between October 1943 and June 1946.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
23922—52
2




STOCK PRICES
During August, the weekly indexes of stock prices fluctuated around the peak July averages, but the composite index
for the month as a whole was unchanged. .
PERCENT OF 1939 AVERAGE

1940 41

PERCENT OF 1939 AVERAGE

42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

50

51

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION.

Compositel
index

Period
Weekly average:
1940
.
1942
1946
1949
... -1950
June
1951
_ ...
1951: August
September
October
November _
December
1952: January
February
March
April .
May__
June
July
_ _ _ _
August
Week ended;
1952: August 1 __
8— _ _ _
15
22

29
1

[1939=100]
Manufacturing
Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable
goods

Transportation Utilities

Trade,
finance,
and
service

Mining

90.6
74.9
149. 6
127.6
154. 1
158. 3
184.7
189. 1
194.0
191. 4
185.0
190.2
195.3
193. 1
192. 5
191. 1
190. 4
196. 0
198.7
198. 7

93.4
75.5
146. 6
132. 1
165.7
171. 1
206.6
214.0
219. 9
215.8
207.5
2145
221.5
218. 1
216.3
214.5
213.7
221. 6
225. 3
225. 2

92.5
73.7
138. 8
116. 0
150.4
156. 0
178.3
177.7
184.5
185. 1
178. 4
182. 1
185. 2
182. 6
181. 5
181.3
181.7
187. 1
191. 7
194. 3

94.2
77. 1
154.4
147.2
180. 2
185. 0
233.0
248. 0
252. 8
244.3
234.6
244. 6
255. 1
251. 1
248.4
245. 0
243.3
253.4
256. 3
253. 6

99. 1
90.8
202.6
138.8
159.9
149.5
199. 2
195. 1
202. 3
203.3
194.0
203.6
210. 6
208. 6
214. 0
217. 1
215.9
224.6
226.3
227.9

97.7
69.8
121.0
98. 1
107.2
114.8
112. 5
113.9
114.9
114. 3
113.8
115.0
116.4
116. 8
116. 7
116. 0
116. 7
116.8
116.8
119. 8

86.7
71.3
204.3
160. 5
183.8
182.4
208.0
205.5
213. 1
214.0
207.8
209.0
209. 1
206. 0
202. 9
202. 5
201. 3
203. 8
208.3
209.5

75.9
59.7
125.5
129.2
143.5
143.0
204.9
217. 4
229.4
243.6
238.8
238. 1
245.8
258.0
294. 9
298. 4
283.2
290.5
288. 8
278.2

200. 7
200. 7
"198. 2
196. 6
197. 2

228.2
227. 7
224. 6
222. 4
222. 9

195. 6
196. 4
194. 7
192. 1
192. 9

258. 4
256. 6
252.2
250.4
250. 6

229.9
230. 8
228. 3
225. 1
225. 6

119.2
120. 1
119. 5
119. 8
120. 4

210.0
212. 0
210. 1
207.5
207.7

285.9
281.0
271.4
273.4
279.3

Includes 265 common stocks, distributed as follows: 14 for mining, 98 for durable goods manufacturing, 72 for nondurable goods manufacturing, 21 for
transportation,28 for utilities, and 32 for trade, finance, and service.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.




EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE
Total civilian employment rose slishtly in August to almost 62.4 million with nonagricultural employment increasing
about 750,000 to an all-time record level. Unemployment declined more than 300,000, largely because of the
seasonal withdrawal of summer workers from the labor force.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS
70

MILLIONS OF PERSONS'
.TOTAL CIVILIAN
^LABOR FORCE

I NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT!

..J

L...I j T...

i_1 t J

3

UN EK IPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE

—

_ n
1939

1944

1947

1950

n
1951

n-v-r-

TV

• r~rn,. ..

. , e

>»T^_^

:Tl:m nTr~

, . . . . i.

rm rT

r—-L

rrn n , , ,

* 14 YEARS OF AGE AND OViR.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Period

1939 monthly average - _ _
1944 monthly average.
1947 monthly average. _
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average. _
1950 monthly average.
June
1951 monthly average
1951: June
July.
August
September _
October.
November
December
1952: January
February .,
March
April
May
June
July
August
_
1

__ _

...

_ _

_

Civilian labor force
UnemEmployment 1
Total
ployNonagriAgriculTotal
ment
tural
cultural
Thousands of persons, 14 years of age and over
9,480
9, 610
45, 750
36, 140
55, 230
53, 960
670
8,950
54, 630
45, 010
2, 142
8,266
58, 027
49,761
60, 168
2,064
59, 378
61, 442
7,973
51, 405
62, 105
58, 710
3,395
50, 684
8, 026
7,507
59, 957
52, 450
3, 142
63, 099
61, 482
64, 866
3,384
52, 436
9,046
62, 884
7, 054
1,879
53, 951
61,005
1,980
61,803
63, 783
8,035
53, 768
64, 382
62, 526
1, 856
7,908
54, 618
62, 630
54, 942
64, 208
7,688
1,578
1,606
63, 186
7,526
54,054
61, 580
63,452
1,616
54, 168
7,668
61, 836
54, 314
7, 022
63, 164
61, 336
1,828
1,674
61,014
62, 688
54,636
6,378
2,054
59, 726
53,540
6,186
61, 780
6,064
59, 752
2,086
61, 838
53, 688
6,012
1, 804
59, 714
53, 702
61, 518
6,412
60, 132
53,720
1,612
61, 744
61, 176
6,960
54, 216
62, 778
1, 602
62, 572
54, 402
64, 390
1, 818
8, 170
1,942
62, 234
54, 636
7,598
64, 176
1,604
6, 964
62, 354
63, 958
55, 390

Unemployment as percent of total
civilian
labor force
17.2
1.2
3.6
3.4
5. 5
5.0
5.2
3.0
3. 1
2. 9
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.9
2.7
3.3
&4
2.9
2.6
2. 6
2.8
3.0
2. 5

Includes part-time workers and those who had jobs but were not at work for such reasons as vacation, illness, bad weather, temporary lay-off,
and industrial disputes.
Nom—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.




NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
Seasonal increases in employment in construction, food processing, and several other industries in July were more than
offset by the number of workers who were off the payrolls because of the steel strike.
MILLIONS OF WAGE
AND SALARY WORKERS
9.5

MILLIONS OF WAGE
AND SALARY WORKERS

DURABLE MANUFACTURING

NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING

N950

0 f~

I

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I

I

I

I

I

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0 I—

I

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CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION

J

F

M

A

A

M

S

. 0

N

D

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR,

[Thousands of wage and salary workers
Manufacturing
Period
Total
1939 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average _ _
1950 monthly average
June
1951 monthly average
1951: June
July
August
September
October
1
November
December
1952* Januarv
-February _ _
March
April2
Mav
June 22
July

10, 078
17, 381
14, 461
15, 286
14, 146
14, 884
14, 666
15, 931
15, 956
15, 813
16, 008
16, 039
15, 965
15, 890
15, 913
15, 776
15, 859
15, 869
15, 795
15, 680
15, 487
15, 104

Durable Nondugoods rable goods
4,683
11, 077
7, 739
8,315
7, 465.
8,008
7,964
8,926
8, 998
8,839
8,878
8,913
8,942
8,976
9, 000
8,946
9,010
9,035
9,054
9,012
8,689
8,251

5,394
6,304
6,722
6, 970
6,681
6, 876
6, 702
7,005
6,958
6,974
7, 130
7,126
7, 023
6,914
6,913
6, 830
6,849
6,834
6,741
6,668
6,798
6, 853

Contract
construction

1, 150
1,567
1,661
2, 165
2, 156
2,318
2, 414
2,569
2,686
2,754
2,809
2,768
2,761
2,633
2, 518
2,316
2,308
2,296
2,416
2,520
2,663
2, 729

Trade

6, 612
7, 189
8,602
9,491
9,438
9, 524
9, 411
9, 804
9,732
9,667
9,641
9,781
9,893
10, 109
10, 660
9,720
9,643
9, 668
9,845
9,773
9,836
9,781

Finance
and
service
4,703
5, 320
6,207
6, 515
6,545
6,573
6,653
6, 641
6,728
6,760
6, 753
6, 729
6,668
6,641
6, 614
6, 580
6, 586
6, 618
6, 700
6, 753
6,817
6,855

Government
(Federal,
State,
local)

3, 987
6, 049
5,607
5, 613
5,811
5,910
5,832
6,390
6,377
6,356
6,401
6,544
6,532
6, 497
6,881
6,509
6,490
6, 528
6,551
6,602
6, 585 '
6;558

Transportation
and
public
utilities

2, 912
3, 619
4,023
4, 151
3,979
4,010
4,023
4, 144
4,161
4, 176
4,190
4, 178
4,166
4,165
4,161
4, 103
4, 111
4, 118
4,096
4, 134
4, 163
4, 124

Mining

845
917
852
981
932
904
946
920
927
906
922
917
917
917
916
909
902
904
896
893
827
790

1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagrieultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending nearest
the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 7) which include proprietors, selfemployed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on an
enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
* Preliminary estimates.
Source: Department of Labor.

8



AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
The average manufacturing workweek declined about a half-hour in July, due in part to widespread vacation shutdownsf Many metalworking plants scheduled shorter workweeks because of diminishing steel supplies.
HOURS PER WEEK

HOURS PER WEEK

NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING

DURABLE MANUFACTURING

,,,,i

o IT111 n

>£

1 ! II

1 1 1 1 i 1
1949

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
L^

1951

RETAIL TRADE

,L

uJ
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

[Hours per week, selected industries*]
Manufacturing •
Period

Total

1939
1943
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950

monthly average _ _ _
monthly average - monthly average
monthly average.
monthly average
monthly average
._
monthly average
June
:
1951 monthly average ..
1951: June
-.
July
_ .
August
September
October _ _ _ _ _ - _
__
November
December __..__
1952: January
February
March
April 4
May
June 44
July .
. __
1
3

For production and related workers.
Not strictly comparable with previous data.




Durable
goods

37 7
44 9
40 4
40. 4
40 1
39. 2
40 5
40. 5
40. 7
40 7
40 2
40 3
40 6
40. 5
40 5
41. 2
40. 8
40 7
40 7
39. 8
40. 2
40. 4
39. 9
2
4

Not available.
Preliminary estimates.

38 0
46 6
40 2
40 6
40 5
39 5
41 2
41 3
41. 7
41 8
40 9
41 3
41 6
41. 7
41 5
42 2
41. 8
41 7
41 7
40. 8
41. 1
41. 1
40. 2

Nondurable construction Retail trade
goods
37. 4
42 5
40. 5
40. 1
39. 6
38. 8
39 7
39. 5
39.5
39.4
39. 3
39 1
39. 4
38. 9
39. 2
39. 9
39. 5
39. 5
39. 3
38. 4
38. 9
39. 5
39. 5

32. 6
38. 4
38. 1
37. 6
3
37. 3
36. 7
36.3
37.0
37.3
37.7
38. 1
38.2
38. 2
38. 5
36. 4
37.7
37.5
37. 9
36. 9
37.6
38.1
38. 9

(2)

2
((2)
)

M

(2)

40.3
40.3
40.4
40.5
40. 9
40. 1
40.4
40. 8
40.8
40.0
39.8
39.4
40.1
39.8
39.8
39.8
39.7
39.6
40.2

Source: Department of Labor.

AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
Average hourly earnings in manufacturing declined almost 1 cent in July, primarily as a result of decreased overtime
in metalworking industries. The 1-cent-an-hour increase in nondurable goods manufacturing reflected a sizable
jump in wage rates in the petroleum products industry.
DOLL ARS PER HOUR

DOLLARS PER HOUR

1.90

NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING

DURABLE MANUFACTURING
1.60

1.80

LI

—xi

LI

1.70

1951 PRICES-s^
*^^"~
4 .-— '"*}
/
» ^*— v /

1951 PRICES
V

^^^/

*/
*

CURRENT PRICES
1.50

^\ ^*»«*.—-

> — ^s- V^"**-*^-1

^'

X^"""

1.60

\
r^^

1.50

^/^

*~*^S

-^.dRRENT

PRICES

1.30

*—m*r

1.40

0

rr, , , , i , , , , ,

,,,,,!,,,,,

1949

I95O

. . . , , i . ; . . . , , , , , i - , , i,,r
1951

0

i ,,,,i

T, , , , 1 , , , , ,
1949

1952

2.40

i . . , . i , . ,,,

1950

1951

. . , . , 1 , . . iT
1952

1.40

RETAIL TRADE

BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
2.30

u

1.30

2.20

2.10

Ll
1951 PR-ICES IV
^
^*~\^JT
/

S*~*

-J

"^Nf*^— ^P=^

'

1.20

f^
/

/- —'j^""^
/

'

1951 PRICES "s^

s+J
fr
J**~>*

/^

f*1-^^

^CURRENT PRICES

^~^

URRENT PRICES
2.00

I.OO

y^r-r

1.90

0

^^

rr, , , , i , , , , ,
1949

^
1 ,,',,,

.....

1950

If EARNINGS IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY

.90

1 .....
1951

, , , , , i , , , rr

0

1952

r, , , , i , , , , ,
1949

, . , . , I , . « . .-..-... 1 .....
1950

1951

. . . , , i . , , .r 1
1952

CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX ON BASE issui DO.

[Production and related workers in selected industries]
All manufacturing
Period

Durable goods
manufacturing

Nondurable goods
manufacturing

Building
construction

Current
prices

1951
prices 1

Current
prices

1951
prices 1

Current
prices

1951
prices 1

Current
1951
prices prices J

1939 monthly average
$0. 633
1943 monthly average
.961
1946 monthly average,
1,086
1947 monthly average _ _
1.237
1948 monthly average..
1.350
1949 monthly average
1. 401
1950 monthly average
1.465
June
„
1.453
1951 monthly average
1. 594
1951: June
_
1.599
July
... 1.598
August _
1. 596
September
1.613
October
1. 615
November.
1.626
December.
.
1. 636
1952: January
1.640
February
1. 644
March
1. 656
April 4 - .
1.655
May 4
1. 657
June4
__
1. 658
Julv
1.650

$1. 181
1. 443
1. 444
1.438
1. 458
1.528
1.582
1.585
1. 594
1.602
1. 600
1. 598
1.605
1. 599
1.600
1. 605
1.609
1. 625
1.635
1.627
1.628
1. 622
1. 605

$0. 698
1. 059
. 1. 156
1. 292
1. 410
1. 469
1. 537
1.522
1. 678
1.681
1.682
1. 684
1.707
1.705
1.712
1.723
1.726
1. 731
1. 746
1. 742
1.746
1.747
1. 733

$1. 302
1. 590
1.537
1.502
I.' 523
1.602
1. 660
1.660
1. 678
1.684
1. 684
1. 686
1. 699
1. 688
1.685
1. 691
1. 694
1. 710
1. 724
1.713
1. 715
1. 709
1.686

$0. 582
. 803
1.015
1. 171
1.278
1.325
1.378
1. 365
1. 481
1.484
1.488
1. 481
1. 489
1. 491
1.507
1.515
1. 520
1.522
1. 530
1.529
1. 530
1.541
1.551

$1. 086
1.206
1.350
1.362
1.380
1. 445
1.488
1. 489
1. 481
1.487
1.489
1. 482
1.482
1.476
1. 483
1.487
1.492
1. 504
1.510
1. 503
1. 503
1. 508
1. 509

$0. 932
1. 252
1. 478
1.681
3
1. 848
1.935
2. 031
1.995
2.201
2. 194
2. 195
2. 207
2.236
2. 239
2.260
2.253
2.276
2. 285
2. 292
2. 285
2. 279
2. 271
(2)

1 Earnings in current prices divided by consumers' price index on base 1951=100.
21Not available.
Not strictly comparable with previous data.
4
Preliminary estimates.

10




$1. 739
1.880
1. 965
1. 955
3
1. 996
2. 110
2. 193
2. 176
2.201
2. 198
2. 197
2. 209
2. 225
2. 217
2. 224
2.211
2. 234
2.258
2. 263
2. 247
2. 239
2. 222
0

Retail trade
Current
prices

8
(2)

$1. 009
1.. 088
1. 137
1. 176
1. 175
1. 253
1.256
1. 262
1.259
1. 270
1.267
1.267
1. 245
1.287
1. 281
1.279
1. 284
1. 308
1.321
(2)

1951
prices 1
(2)
(22)
()
$1. 173
L 175
1.240
1. 270
1.281
1. 253
1. 259
1.263
1. 260
1.264
1.254
1.247
1.222
1.263
1.266
1.263
1.263
1.285
1.293
(2)

Source: Department of Labor,

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
Because of the shorter workweek and decreased hourly earnings, average weekly earnings for all manufacturing
declined by more than $1.00 in July.
DOLLARS PER WEEK

DOLLARS PER WEEK

DURABLE MANUFACTURING

v^VP"
T1111 1111111T 1 1 1 1 1
1

1 9 5 1 I

i n 11 n

M

RETAIL TRADE

i iT i i i i i I i i i i G
I
' EARNINGS IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY CONSUMERS

1952

.1 i i i i I i i i i n

i n i 111 11 i i i
1949

PRICE INDEX ON BASE 1951 «IOO

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Production and related workers in selected industries]
All manufacturing
Period

1939
1943
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950

1951
Current
prices prices 1

monthly average
$23. 86
monthly average. __ _ 43. 14
43. 82
monthly average
monthly average
49.97
monthly average
54. 14
monthly average
54.92
monthly average
59.33
June.
58. 85
1951 monthly average
64.88
1951: June
65.08
July _^
64.24
August
64. 32
September
65.49
October
65.41
November
65.85
December
67.40
1952: January _ .._ _
66. 91
February
66.91
March
67.40
April 4
___«.
65.87
May
66. 61
June 4
66.98
July ^
65.84

$44. 51
64. 77
58.27
58. 10
58. 47
59.89
64. 07
64. 18
64.88
65. 21
64.30
64. 38
65. 16
64. 76
64.81
66. 14
65.66
66. 12
66.54
64. 77
65.43
65. 54
64.05

Durable goods
manufacturing

Building
construction

Retail trade

1951
Current
Current
prices prices 1 prices

1951
prices 1

Current
prices

1951
prices l

Current
prices

1951
prices 1

$21. 78
34. 12
41. 14
46.96
50. 61
51. 41
54. 71
53. 92
58. 50
58.47
58.48
57.91
58. 67
58. 00
59.07
60.45
60.04
60. 12
60. 13
58. 71
59. 52
60.87
61.26

$40. 63
51. 23
54. 71
54. 60
54.65
56.06
59.08
58.80
58.50
58.59
58.54
57.97
58. 38
57.43
58. 14
59. 32
58.92
59.41
59.36
57.73
58. 47
59.56
59.59

$30. 39
48. 13
56.24
63. 30
3
68. 85
70. 95
73.73
73.82
82. 10
82. 71
83. 63
84.31
85.42
86.20
82.26
84.94
85. 35
86. 60
84.57
85. 92
86. 83
88.34
(2)

$56. 70
72.27
74.79
73.60
3
74. 35
77.37
79. 62
80. 50
82. 10
82. 88
83. 71
84. 39
85. 00
85. 35
80. 96
83.36
83.76
85. 57
83.48
84.48
85.29
86.44
(2)

(22)
()
(2)
$40. 66
43. 85
45. 93
47.63
48.06
50.25
50. 74
51.49
51.37
50.80
50.43
49.92
49.92
51.22
50. 98
50.90
50.97
51.80
53.2 10
()

•8

$26. 50
49.30
46. 49
52.46
57. 11
58.03
63. 32
62. 86
69.97
70.27
68.79
69.55
71.01
71. 10
71.05
72.71
72. 15
72. 18
72.81
71.07
71.76
71. 80
69.67

$49. 44
74.02
61. 82
61.00
61. 67
63.28
68.38
68.55
69.97
70.41
68.86
69. 62
70. 66
70.40
69.93
71.35
70. 80
71.32
71.88
69.88
70. 49
70.25
67.77

i Earnings in current prices divided by consumers' price index on base 1951= 100.
> Not available.
Source: Department of Labor.




Nondurable goods
manufacturing

(2)

$47. 28
47.35
50.09
51.44
52. 41
50.25
50. 84
51.54
51.42
50.55
49.93
49. 13
48.99
50.26
50.38
50. 25
50. 12
50.88
51.96
(2)

3 Not strictly comparable with previous data.
* Preliminary estimates.

11

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Following the settlement of the steel dispute late in July, industrial activity showed marked recovery during August.
Total industrial production rose 11 percent, reflecting an increase of almost 1 8 percent in the output of durable goods
and smaller but substantial advances in the output of nondurable goods and minerals.
D

ERCEM OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9

AVERAGE

PERCENT OF

1935-39 AVERAGE

400

400

1952
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES.
SOURCE:

BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Total
industrial
production

* J
Period

TJ

1943 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average.
1949 monthly average
1950 monthly average..
June
1951 monthly average
1951: July
August
September
October _ •„
November
December _
1952: January
February,.
March, _ _
April^ .
May
June
.._
July i l
August i Preliminary estimates.

12



.
„
__

__

239
170
187
192
176
200
199
220
212
217
218
218
219
218
221
222
221
216
211
203
191
212

IManufacture s

Total
258
177
194
198
183
209
208
229
222
226
228
226
228
228
231
232
231
225
224
213
200
223

Durable
goods
360
192
220
225
202
237
237
273
265
267
271
274
277
282
282
284
284
277
277
247
224
264

Nonduraable goods
176
165
172
177
168
187
184
194
187
193
192
188
188
185
189
190
188
183
180
187
180
189

Minerals
132
134
149
155
135
148
151
164
156
165
167
174
170
163
167
167
164
166
140
147
143
157

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System.

WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORS
Steel production climbed rapidly during August and reached the full capacity level the first week in September. By
the end of August, motor vehicle production returned to the rate prevailing before the steel strike, while coal production, before the miners1 holiday, rose to the highest level since January. Electric power output continued to rise.
MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS (DAILY AVERAGE)

MILLIONS OF TONS

3

3

I

J

F

M

M

J

J

S

O

I

I

I

I

I

Steel i

Weekly average:
1950_
June_
1951
1951: July___
__
August
September.
October
November
December
1952: January _
February _
March
April

Thousands of
net tons

___

_

_

May

June
July 3
August ~.
Week ended:
1952: August 2

9

16. _

23
30_

September 6

_

I

I

I

I

N

SOURCE: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE. AND WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS.

Period

I

Percent of
theoretical
capacity

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Electric power, Bituminous
by utilities
coal
(thousands of
(millions of
kilowatt-hours) short tons) 2

Cars and
trucks
(number)

1,857
1,898
2, 018
1, 965
1, 973
2,023
2,059
2,051
2,011
2,062
2,091
2, 123
1,863
1, 852
382
363
1, 972

96. 9
99.6
100.9
98.3
98.7
101. 2
103. 0
102. 6
100. 6
99.3
100. 7
102.2
89. 7
89.2
18.4
17.5
95.0

6, 183
6,038
6,958
6,760
7, 114
7,012
7,204
7,340
7, 464
7,509
7,443
7,382
7, 158
7,018
7, 176
7,076
7,622

1, 687
1, 707
1,777
1,688
1, 748
1,790
1, 918
1,990
1, 765
1, 919
1,751
1,580
1,553
1,383
1, 322
1, 186
1,354

154, 214
192, 825
129, 828
112, 786
120, 311
115, 721
112, 300
103, 362
90, 476
82, 195
104, 161
115, 014
119,700
114, 870
118,361
44, 587
73, 837

891
1,866
1,938
2,019
2,069
2, 077

42.9
89.8
93.3
97.2
99.6
100. 0

7,405
7,495
7, 627
7, 718
7,646

1, 392
1, 590
1, 650
1,848
328

18, 760
43, 874
32, 612
101, 607
117,256

1
Weekly data are scheduled rates of operation; monthly figures are for actual output except latest month which is an average of the weekly estimates. Percent
of capacity based on weekly net ton capacity of 1,843,516 for 1949, 1,906,268 for the first half of 1950, 1,928,721 beginning July 1, 1950,1,999,034 beginning January
1, 1951, and 2,077,040 beginning January 1, 1952.
2 Daily average for week.
3 Preliminary estimates.
Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Automotive Reports.

23922—52-




13

PRODUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURES
Output of all major categories of durable and nondurable manufactures, except petroleum and coal products, declined
in July. Sizable decreases in production occurred in the steel-producing and -consuming industries. Vacation schedules were primarily responsible for the lower output of most nondurable goods.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE (ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION)

1940 42 44 46 48

50

I95Q

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE (ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION)
300

1951

1951

1952

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.

[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Durable manufactures
Period

1943 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average.
1950 monthly average
.lime _

....
...

1951 moil (,hly average
J U f i ! : .) ma
.! i l v

A t i p u 1.

tf •!»»«'
1 ot.nl
1K u v t i
1 ft^i

.-

.

n!.nr
«T
nlii-r
<Un|

IU.SV. ,!M'«W t v
t ' t . J M I M,i V
MMfi'll
AjMll

MHV

,

_

Iron and
steel

Lumber
and
products

208
150
195
208
188
229
231
259
261
253
254
258
261
261
203
2(U
2(>1

129
131
143
145
130
160
155
157
153
141
146
146
149
157
154
159
162
158

2(\ \
2-\ »
2-\ i

JlllH'

i :is

.Inly ' .

127

• Preliminary estimates.

14



1 52

142
1 40

139

Nondurable manufactures

Nonferrous Textiles
Machinery metals and
and
products products

443
240
276
277
234
270
262
336
338
328
328
336
340
347
358
359
360
359
354
353
352
334

267
157
187
193
160
206
207
207
205
199
197
196
201
209
207
216
217
218
219
218
212
207

153
162
163
170
147
182
173
174
185
160
170
163
154
157
152
157
160
152
144
151
154
144

Petroleum Manufacand coal tured food
products products

185
173
193
218
209
229
222
268
263
262
265
266
269
276
281
281
281
278
263
211
252
258

145
149
157
159
163
164
164
165
165
164
166
167
163
160
160
162
165
166
163
160
167
162

Chemical
products

384
236
251
254
241
264
261
298
302
305
306
301
298
299
298
300
297
294
292
291
297
294

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System.

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
The small decline in total investment from the first to the second quarter was due to a drop in the rate of business
inventory accumulation, as other components remained stable.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1 70

70
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

PRODUCERS' DURABLE EQUI

/V
/ ^*«CHANGE

IN BUSINESS
INVENTORIES

I

I

I

i

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

J

I

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

[Billions of dollars]
Total gross
private
domestic
investment

Period

1939
1944
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951

__

9. 9
7. 7
28. 7
30. 2
42. 7
33. 5
50.3
58. 5

New construction
Residential
nonfarm

Total
4. 9
2. 8
10. 3
13. 9
17. 7
17.2
22. 9
23. 3

2.7
.8
4.0
6. 3
8. 6
8. 3
12.6
11.0

Other

Producers'
durable
equipment

2.2
2.0
6. 3
7.6
9. 1
9.0
10.3
12.3

Change in
business
inventories

4.6
5. 7
12. 3
17. 1
19.9
.18. 7
22.0
24. 9

0.4
-.8
6. 1
-.8
5.0
-2.5
5. 5
10. 3

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1950: Fourth quarter. _

61.6

24.2

13. 1

11.2

23.8

13. 6

1951: First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

59.8
65. 2
56. 2
52. 9

24.7
23.5
22. 4
22.4

12.8
10. 9
9.9
10. 3

11. 9
12.6
12. 5
12. 1

24. 8
25.4
24. 9
24. 7

10.3
16.3
8. 9
5.8

1952: First quarter
Second quarter _

50. 0
49.3

23.7
23.6

11. 0
11.0

12. 7
12.6

25. 7
25.7

.6
.1

NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding,
Source: Department of Commerce.




15

EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
Seasonally adjusted outlays for new plant and equipment planned by manufacturing industries as a whole for the third
quarter of 1952 indicate moderate expansion above the rate of the first half of the year, according to revised estimates.
Among the nonmanufacturing industries, electric power and mining companies are scheduled to increase.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
30
ANNUAL TOTALS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

COMMERCIAL AND
MISCELLANEOUS

^TRANSPORTATION AND:
PUBLIC UTILITIES

MANUFACTUR NG AND M NING

J
1939

1948

1950

1951

I

2

3

2

1

3

1951

I960
•i'SEE NOTE 4 ON TABLE BELOW.

SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
Manufacturing
Total *

Period

Total

1939_
1945
1948- _
1949
1950 _
1951

___.
_

_.

5.51
8.69
22.06
19.28
20. 60
26.33

1.94
3. 98
9. 13
7. 15
7. 49
11. 13

Transportation

Durable Nondurgoods able goods
0.76°
1.59
3. 48
2.59
3. 14
5. 17

1. 19
2. 39
5. 65
4.56
4. 36
5. 96

Mining

0. 33
.38
.88
.79
. 71
. 91

Commercial and
miscellaneous 2

Railroads

Other

Public
utilities

0.28
. 55
1.32
1.35
1. 11
1.47

0.36
.57
1. 28
.89
1. 21
1. 49

0. 52
.50
2. 54
3. 12
3.31
3.86

2.08
2. 70
6. 90
5.98
6. 78
7.47

1.30
1.43
1.45
1.50
1. 50
1. 50
1.47
1. 46
1. 30

3. 24
3.70
3.70
3.86
3. 97
3.85
4. 14
4. 18
4.46

6. 97
7.35
7.57
7.48
7.49
7.40
7.27
7. 03
6. 75

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1950: Third quarter
Fourth quarter. _ _
1951: First quarter
__ __
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter _
1952: First quarter _ 4 _
Second quarter _ _ _
Third a uar t er 4 _ _

21.04
23. 30
24.29
26.40
27. 07
27. 30
27.43
27.32
27.69

7.68
8.92
9.46
11.08
11. 72
12. 02
12.04
12.24
12. 74

(3)
(3)
(3)
(33)
(3)
()
(33)
(3)
()

(33)
()
(3)
(33)
()
(3)
(33)
(3)
()

.67
.75
.82
.95
.93
. 93
.93
.94
.96

1. 19
1. 15
1.28
1. 53
1. 46
1.60
1.57
1.47
1.47

i Excludes agriculture.
* Commercial and miscellaneous composed of trade, service, finance, and communication.
8
Not available.
4
Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business as reported in a survey made during the second quarter of 1952.
NOTE.—Revised series; see Survey of Current Business, August 1952. These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged
to current expense.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce.

16




NEW CONSTRUCTION
During July, new construction expenditures, seasonally adjusted, continued the moderate decline which had begun
in April. All of the drop was accounted for by public construction.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1 3,500

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
3,500
ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION

3,000

3,000

2,500

2,500

2,000

2,000
i TOTAL PRIVATE

1,500

1,500

• PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL
(NONFARM)

1,000

1,000

OTHER PRIVATE •

FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

1952

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

[Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Period

Total new
construction

1939 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1944 roonthly average
1946 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1949 monthly average
1950 monthly average
June
1951 monthly average.
1951' June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1952: January
February
March
April

683
1,173
438
1,000
1, 806
1,899
2,396
2,389
2,585
2, 551
2, 502
2,505
2, 523
2,561
2, 577
2,607
2,609
2,743
2,854
2,811
2,743
2, 722
2,686

ivj.a>j_
Mav

June
July 2
1
1

_-

»

_ __

Includes public residential construction.
Preliminary estimates




Private construction
Total
Residential
Other
private
(nonfarm)
366
223
143
142
285
143
182
114
68
803
335
468
1,404
715
689
1,365
689
676
1,801
1, 050
751
1,072
1, 808
736
914
1,807
893
1, 766
850
916
1,749
834
915
1, 724
812
912
1,722
821
901
1,732
855
877
" 1, 734
864
870
1,734
862
872
1,739
837
902
1, 813
912
901
1,920
1,011
909
1,859
954
905
1,801
904
897
1,775
882
893
1,784
, 883
901

Federal,
State, and
local *
317
888
256
197
402
534
595
581
778
785
753
781
801
829
843
873
870
930
934
952
942
947
902

Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.

17

NEW HOUSING STARTS
New housing starts continued at a high level in July with construction begun on 104,000 units. This number was 15
percent above a year ago and, with the exception of 1950, higher than any other July on record.
THOUSANDS OF UNITS

THOUSANDS OF UNITS

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

New nonfarm units started
TVT/\T»4-Vi

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

39, 300
42, 800
56 000
67, 100
72, 900
77, 200
81, 100
86, 300
93, 800
94 000
79, 700
58, 800

53 500
50, 100
76 400
99 500
100, 300
97, 800
95, 000
86 700
82, 300
73 400
63, 700
52, 900

50 000
50, 400
69 400
88, 300
95, 400
95, 500
96, 100
99, 000
102, 900
104 300
95, 500
78, 300

78, 700
82, 900
117, 300
133, 400
149, 100
144, 300
144, 400
141, 900
120, 600
102. 500
87, 300
93, 600

85, 900
80, 600
93, 800
96, 200
101, 000
132, 500
90. 500
89, 100
96, 400
90, 000
74, 500
60, 800

64, 900
77, 700
103, 900
106 200
1
107, 000
1
106, 000
1
104, 000

849, 000

931, 600

1, 025, 100

1, 396, 000

1, 091, 300

70, 750

77, 600

85, 425

116, 300

90, 900

1947
January
February
March
April
--- ..
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
.
December ..
Total

....

Monthly average
i Preliminary estimates.
Source: Department of Labor.

18




INVENTORIES AND SALES
During July, total business sales and inventories, seasonally adjusted, decreased for the third consecutive month.
Retail sales declined over 3% percent, and sales by manufacturers dropped slightly. However, sales at the wholesale level increased 4 percent.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1940 42

44

46 48

50

I960

PERCENT OF 1947-49 AVERAGE

1940 42 44 46 48 50
*

1952

1950

1940 42 44 46 48 50

1951

1950

1952

WHOLESALE, MANUFACTURING, AND RETAIL.

SOURCE: DEPARfMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOAR

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Total business l
InvenSales *
tories 2

Period

Manufacturing

Retail
Inven- 1
tories2 |

gales
bales 3

Inventories 2

Sales *

Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
1939
1943
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950

-_ _
__

_ -__
-. _ - _

June
1951
______
1951: June -- -July__.
August
September
October
November
December
1952: January
February
March
April 7
_
May 7
June 7
July

20, 051
31, 343
42, 942
50, 605
55, 647
50, 921
60, 434
52, 828
70, 107
69, 442
70, 268
70, 124
69, 965
70, 068
69, 991
70, 107
70, 219
69, 899
69, 972
70, 185
69, 914
69,541
69, 299

10,803
21, 920
27, 151
33, 157
36, 438
34, 467
39, 109
39, 239
43, 455
43, 052
41, 691
42, 930
41, 215
44, 175
43, 648
41, 609
43, 989
45, 144
42, 627
44, 807
44, 637
43, 357
43, 084

5, 534
7,561
11, 852
14, 060
15,828
14, 502
17, 793
15, 574
18, 093
20, 282
20, 045
19, 429
18,761
18, 545
18, 280
18, 093
18, 061
17, 980
17, 887
18, 010
17, 997
17, 847
17, 766

3,504
5,270
8, 541
9,967
10, 877
10, 893
11, 974
12, 059
12, 549
12, 240
12, 058
12, 429
12, 258
12, 551
12, 492
12, 318
12, 650
12, 862
12, 399
12,711
13, 098
13, 039
12, 555

11,465
20, 098
24, 498
28, 920
31, 734
28, 690
33, 253
29, 123
42, 014
39, 009
39, 908
40, 621
41, 132
41, 424
41, 676
42, 014
42, 206
42, 192
42, 332
42, 513
42, 450
42, 213
42, 128

5, 112
12, 820
12, 617
15, 918
17, 630
16, 339
19, 064
19, 271
22, 036
22, 133
21, 249
21, 677
20,591
22, 463
22, 214
20, 761
22, 484
23, 334
21, 914
23, 324
23, 105
21, 848
21, 700

Department stores
Inven-5
New
Sales »
tories
orders
(millions of Index 1947-49=100,
dollars) « seasonally adjusted
(66)
()
13, 694
15, 622
17, 337
15, 791
20, 731
20, 922
23, 991
24, 054
22, 556
22, 962
21, 536
24, 289
22, 627
20,767
22, 565
22, 071
23, 133
23, 113
21, 674
24, 772
21, 300

35
55
77
93
107
100
110
105
129
135
137
134
128
121
117
119
118
116
115
116
118
118
120

35
56
90
98
104
98
105
103
109
105
105
109
107
108
113
109
108
106
105
103
108
111
105

8
Index of book value, end of period, except annual data, which are averages of
i Also includes wholesale, not shown eparately in this table.
monthly figures.
»Book value, end of period.
1
Not available.
» Monthly average for year and total for month.
* Preliminary estimates.
< Data for new orders not adjusted for seasonal variation.
Source?: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of tjae Federal Reserve System.
*v




MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
The sharp drop in June exports caused the export surplus to fall to less than 50 percent of the May level. Preliminary
estimates of July exports indicate about a 10-percent decline from June.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,600

1,600

1,200

1,200

-!/RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, AND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AREAS.
2/RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY.

[Millions of dollars]
Period
1936—38 monthly average
1 943 monthl v average
- -- - -1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
_
_ _
- 1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average
1950 monthly average _ _ .
-~
June
-- - - 1951 monthly average
1951: May
-_
....
June
.
July
._•
August
_ September
-_
October
November
December
1952* January
- February
_
March _ _
April
May . -'
---June
_~
Julv 3

Exports *
247

1, 080
812

1,278
1,054
1,003
856
877

1, 252
1,354
1, 297
1, 186
1,269
1,232
1,152
1, 387
1, 438
1, 252
1,335
1, 421
1, 337
1,466
1, 162
1,053

Imports 2

Excess of
exports (+ ),
imports (— )

207
282
412
480
594
552
738
687
914

1,018
930
894
881
721
834
818
801
922
892
963
933
835
860

i Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and Department of Defense shipments under the Mutual Security Program.
* Recorded general merchandise imports.
' Preliminary estimate.
NOTE: Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy.




20

+ 40
4-799
+ 400
+ 799
+ 461
+ 452
+ 119
+ 190
+ 339
+ 336
+ 366
+ 292
+ 388
+ 510
+ 318
+ 568
+ 637
+ 331
+ 443
+ 458
+ 404
+ 631
+ 302

PURCHASING POWER
NATIONAL INCOME
National income rose about $K billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) during the second quarter. Compensation of employees rose by an equal amount, while a small decrease in proprietors1 income was offset by an increase
in net interest. Corporate profits after adjustment for inventory valuation were unchanged from the first quarter level.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
350 I

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

ANNUAL TOTALS

TOTAL NATIONAL INCOME-*

CORPORATE PROFITS AND
INVENTORY VALUATION
ADJUSTMENT

1939

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1951

1950

1952

1953

•^PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED). -

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]

Period

1939.. _ — ... __
1944
1946
.. _
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951 _ _ _ _ _

Corporate profits and inventory
valuation adjustment

Compensation of
employees

Proprietors'
(business,
professional,
farm)
and rental
income

Net interest

72.5
183.8
180. 3
198.7
223. 5
216. 3
239. 2
277.6

47. 8
121. 2
117. 1
128. 0
140. 2
139. 9
153.4
178. 9

14.7
35.5
42.0
42.4
47.3
42. 1
45. 2
50.6

4.2
3. 1
2.9
3.5
4.3
5.0
5.8
6.4

259. 4
269. 6
274. 8
280.2
285. 6
288.
0
1
288. 4

165. 4
172. 9
178.2
181.0
183. 4
186. 5
186. 9

Total
national
income

Total
5.8
24.0
18. 3
24.7
31.7
29. 2
34.8
41. 6

Profits
before
taxes
6.5
24.3
23.5
30. 5
33.8
27. 1
39. 6
42. 9

Inventory
valuation
adjustment
-0.7
-.3
-5.2
-5.8
— 2. 1
+ 2.1
-4.8
— 1. 3

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1950: Fourth quarter
1951: First quarter
Second quarter,
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1952* First quarter
Second quarter

48.0
49. 7
49. 0
50.8
53.1
52. 1
51.9

6. 2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.9

39.8
40. 7
41. 2
41. 9
42.5
42.7
1
42. 7.

48. 4
50. 1
43.3
38. 6
59.5
42. 7
*41. 0

-8.6
-9.4
-2. 1
+ 3.2
+ 3.0
-. 1
+ 1.7

1

Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).




21

CORPORATE PROFITS
The annual rate of corporate profits before taxes declined about $1% billion from the first to the second quarter of this
year, according to preliminary estimates. Dividend payments increased, while undistributed profits fell.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

60

60

2j

NO ALLOWANCE FOR INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT.
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED).

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
Corporate . Corporate
profits
tax
before taxes
liability

Period

1939
1944
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951

_ _.

6.5
24.3
23.5
30.5
33.8
27. 1
39. 6
42. 9

.

_____

1. 5
13. ,5
9.6
11.9
13. 0
10.8
18.4
24. 2

Corporate profits after taxes
Total
5. 0
10.8
13.9
18.5
20.7
16.3
21. 2
18. 7

Dividend
payments
3.8
4.7
5.8
6.6
7.2
7.5
9.0
9.0

Undistributed
profits
1.2
6. 1
8. 1
12. 0
13.5
8. 8
12.3
9. 6

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1950: Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
1951: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter _ _ 1952: First quarter 1
Second quarter

___

44.3
48. 4
50. 1
43.3
38.6
39. 5
42.7
41.0

* Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers.
See p. 21 for profits before taxes and inventory valuation adjustment.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted)

22




20.6
22. 5
28.4
24.5
21. 8
22.2
24.7
23.7

23.7
26.0
21.7
18.8
16. 9
17. 3
18.1
17.3

9.3
10.7
8. 6
9.0
9.2
9.3
8. 9
9.6

14.4
15. 3
13. 1
9.8
7.7
8.0
9.2
7.7

PERSONAL INCOME
The most significant change in personal income in July was the sharp decrease in labor income due to the steel strike.
The wage losses in the steel and steel-consuming industries were partially offset by a payment of retroactive wage
increases to railroad workers.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

300

300

1953
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.

[Billions of dollars]

Period

1939
1944
1948
1949
1950
1951
1950: June
1951: June
July
_
August
September
October
November
December
1952: JanuaryFebruary
March
April _
May__
June 3
July

Proprietors' income1
Dividends
Business,
and personal
professional,
Farm
interest
and rental
income
4. 5
45. 7
9.2
10. 3
116.2
11.8
23.7
10. 6
134. 9
29. 6
16.0
17.7
134.3
28.4
13.0
17. 1
146. 5
31. 9
13.3
19. 5
15. 6
170. 7
35.0
20. 4
Seasonally adjusted annual rates

Labor income
(salaries,
Total per- wages,
and
sonal income other labor
income)1

____

-__

72.6
165. 9
209.5
205.-9
226.3
254. 1
221. 0
254. 3
254. 5
256. 7
257.3
261.7
260.9
263.4
263.4
263. 5
261. 9
262. 5
264. 5
' 266. 7
264. 2

144. 9
172. 4
171.5
172. 1
173.0
174. 8
175.5
176.9
177.4
178. 8
178.2
177.8
179.0
180.3
178.3

12. 1
14.2
15.4
16.2
15. 8
17.4
16. 4
17. 1
16. 6
15.2
14.4
14. 4
14. 6
15. 5
15. 4

31.7
34.6
34.7
35. 3
35. 1
36. 0
36. 1
36.2
36. 5
36.6
35.9
36.5
36.8
37.0
36. 8

Transfer
payments

18.7
20. 4
20.4
20. 5
21.0
20. 8
20. 5
21. 1
20. 1
20. 5
21.0
21.5
21. 5
21.4
21. 3

i Excludes employee contributions for social insurance, and self-employed contributions (which became effective January 1952).
* Includes $2.7 billion National Service Life Insurance dividend, most of which was paid in the first half of the year.
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.

2

3.0
3.6
11.3
12.4
15. 1
12. 4
13. 6
12.7
12.5
12.6
12.4
12.7
12.4
12. 1
12.8
12.4
12.4
12. 3
12.6
12.5
12. 3

3




23

CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING
Personal consumption expenditures rose slightly more than disposable income in the second quarter, according to
preliminary estimates. Consequently, there was a slight decline in the rate of saving.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250

1940

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250

41

1953

PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.

Disposable persona]
income l

Period

Less: Personal consumption expenditures
Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable goods

Services

Equals:
Personal
net
saving

Net saving
as percent
of disposable
income

2.7
9.8
25.6
35.4
12. 0
3.9
10.5
6.7
11.2
17. 0

3.8
10.7
21. 9
24. 1
7.6
2.3
5. 6
3. 6
5.5
7. 6

16. 6
7.5
18.7
20. 7
21. 1
17.3
16. 5

7.7
3.4
8.4
9. 1
9. 1
7.5
7. 1

Billions of dollars
1939.— 1941
1942
1944_.
1946
«
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951— .

.

_•_

.

70.2
92.0
116.7
147.0
158. 9
169.5
188.4
187.2
205.5
225. 0

67. 5
82.3
91. 2
111. 6
146. 9
165. 6
177. 9
180. 6
194.3
208. 0

6.7
9.8
7. 1
7. 1
16. 6
21.4
22.9
23. 8
29.2
27. 1

'35.3
44.0
52.9
67. 1
85.8
95. 1
100.9
99.2
102.8
113. 5

25. /5
28.5
31.2
37.4
44. 5
49. 1
54. 1
57. 5
62. 4
67.3

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1950: Fourth quarter. _ _
1951: First quarter
Second quarter, .__
Third quarter _ _
Fourth quarter _ _
1952: First quarter
Second quarter
1

_ _

216.0
218. 0
223. 2
227. 1
231.5
230. 5
231.5

199.4
210. 5
204.5
206.4
210. 5
213. 2
214.9

Income less taxes.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totalfrfoeeauso of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.

24




29.7
31.3
26. 3
25.5
25.3
25. 2
26.4

105.3
113. 3
111.3
113.2
116.2
118. 0'
117. 8

64.4
65.9
66.9
67. 6
69.0
70.0
70.8

PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE INCOME
Per capita disposable income, adjusted for price changes, has remained remarkably stable since 1950.

ANNUAL AVERAGES

DOLLARS
1,600

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

1951 PRICES''

1,200

1,200

CURRENT PRICES

J

J_

1953

I960

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: D E P A R T M E N T OF C O M M E R C E

Total disposable personal Per capita disposable personal income (dollars)1
income (billions of dollars)1

Period

Current
prices

1939 __
1941
1942
1944
1946
1947
_
1948
_
1949
1950
1951 _ _ _ _

___ _ ___ .
_ _

.

_

70.2
92.0
116. 7
147.0
158. 9
169.5
188. 4
187. 2
205. 5
225.0

1951
prices *
135. 5
166. 1
187.3
205.9
200. 4
194. 4
204.8
205. 7
220. 7
225. 0

Current
prices
536
690
866
1,062
1, 124
1, 176
1, 285
1,255
1,355
1,458

1951
prices 2
I', 035
1, 245
1,390
1, 487
1, 417
1,349
1,397
1, 379
1, 455
1, 458

Population
(thousands)8

130, 880
133,377
134,831
138, 390
141, 398
144, 129
146, 621
149, 149
151. 689
154, 353

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1950: Fourth quarter.

_ _

1951: First quarter _ _
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter.
1952: First quarter __
Second quarter

_ _ _ _ _
_
_ _

_

_
__

216. 0

226. 2

1,414

1, 481

152, 774

218. 0
223. 2
227. 1
231. 5

219. 8
223. 6
227. 3
229. 0

1,421
1,449
1,468
1,489

1, 432
1,452
1,469
1,473

153, 396
154, Oil
154, 724
155, 466

230. 5
231. 5

227. 5
228. 1

1, 477
1, 477

1,458
1,455

156, 098
156, 700

* Income less taxes.
J
Dollar estimates in current prices divided by the price index of personal consumption expenditures. This price index was based on the Department of Commerce data, shifted from 1939 base.
.
;.
> Provisional intercensal estimates of the population of the United States including Armed Forces overseas, taking into account the final 1950 Census total population count. Annual data as of July 1; quarterly data centered in the middle of the period, interpolated from monthly figures.
Source: Department of Commerce.




25

FARM INCOME
Farm income increased seasonally from June to July, reflecting growth in the volume of crop marketings. Although
the increase was smaller than a year ago, the level of income in both current and constant prices was higher.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS.
5

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
5

M INCOME IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY PARITY INDEX ON BASE 1951 = IOO.
NOTE: FARM INCOME INCLUDES CASH RECEIPTS FROM. MARKETINGS AND GOVERNMENT PAYMENTS.
SOURCE'- DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

Period
1939 monthly average.-1941 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average
1950 monthly average
June
__ _ _ . 1951 monthly average ™«.
1951: June
July
August
__
September
October
November
December
1952* January
February
_
March
„
April
__>.
.
Mav 3 _
June3 ... _
Julv

.

_

-

.

- _ ..
_ _ _ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _
-

_„

_ _

..._
-

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Parity index
Farm income
Farm income
(prices paid,
(millions of
(millions of
interest, taxes,
current
and wage rates) 1951 dollars) *
dollars)
1951 = 100!
1, 663
715
43
2, 060
47
968
2, 712
65
1, 763
2,851
74
2, 110
2, 761
92
2 540
2, 640
89
2, 350
2, 660
91
2, 421
2, 094
90
1 885
2, 756
100
2, 756
2, 169
100
2, 169
2, 652
2,652
100
2,992
100
2, 992
3, 395
100
3, 395
4, 312
101
4, 355
101
3,565
3, 601
3, 084
101
3, 115
102
2, 590
2, 642
102
2, 003
2, 043
2, 080
102
2, 122
2, 039
2 100
103
2,113
103
2, 176
2, 334
102
2, 381
102
2, 718
2,772

i Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1951=100.
* Farm income in current dollars divided by parity index on base 1951=100.
»Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Farm income includes cash receipts from marketings and Government payments,,
Source: Department of Agriculture.

26




CREDIT, MONEY, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS
Bank investments expanded $1.8 billion during July, with increased holdings of U. S. Government securities accounting
for almost 90 percent of the rise. Loans remained at the all-time high reached in June.
BlLL|ONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

150

150

•INVESTMENT IN^"\ v t
U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES

1939

1945

1949

1950

N D

1951

1951

END OF. YEAR

1952

END OF MONTH
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE : BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.

[Billions of dollars]
All commercial banks
End of period

Investments

Total
loans and
investments

Bank loans

40. 7
124. 0
116.3
114. 3
120. 2
126. 7
121.8
132. 6
126. 1
127.0
128. 6
130.5
131. 9
132.6
132.8
132. 2
132. 5
132. 3
133. 1
134. 8
136. 6

17.2
26. 1
38. 1
42.5
43.0
52. 2
44. 8
57.7
54.6
55.2
56. 0
56.8
57. 3
57.7
57.5
57. 6
57.8
58. 2
58. 5
59. 6
59.6

1939
1945
1947
1948
1949
1950

June _
_
1951
1951: JulyAugust
September
October
November
December.
1952: January
February
March.
April
.
May
__
June 2
July __ _ _
_ _ _ _
August
i Commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans.

NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.


Total

23.4
97.9
78.2
71.8
77.2
74.4
77. 0
74.9
71.5
71.9
72.6
73.7
74.6
74.9
75.3
74.6
74.7
74. 1
74.5
75. 2
77.0

U.S.
Government
securities
16.3
90.6
69.2
62. 6
67.0
62.0
65.8
61.5
58.7
59. 1
59. 7
60.9
61.6
61.5
62.0
61.3
61.1
60.4
60.7
61. 2
62.8

Other
securities

Weekly
reporting
member
banks—
Business
loans *

7. 1
7.3
9.0
9.2
10.2
12.4
11.2
13.3
12. 8
12.7
12. 9
12.9
13.0
13.3
13.3
13.4
13. 6
13. 7
13.8
14. 0
14.2

> Preliminary estimates.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,

4.4
7.3
14. 6
15.6
13. 9
17.8
13.6
21.6
19.0
19.5
20. 1
20.6
20.9
21.6
21. 2
21.2
21.4
20.9
20. 5
20.8
20. 6
20.9

27

CONSUMER CREDIT
Total consumer credit outstanding increased about $250 million during July, the rise of more than $325 million in
instalment credit being partly offset by a seasonal decline in charge accounts.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25

1951

1952

END OF MONTH
SOURCE:

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.

[Millions of dollars]

End of period

1939
1943 1946
1949 . ..
1950
June
1951.. ...
1951: June
July.
August
September
October
November
December. _
1952: Januarv
February
March
April
Mav

June 33
July

__

__ _

Instalment credit

Total
consumer
credit
outstanding

Total
instalment
credit

7, 031
4, 600
8,677
16, 809
20, 097
17, 651
20, 644
19, 256
19, 132
19, 262
19, 362
19, 585
19, 989
20, 644
20, 126
19, 717
19, 565
19, 788
20,293
20, 958
21, 200

4,424
2,001
4, 000
10, 890
13, 459
12, 105
13, 510
12, 955
12, 903
13, 045
13, 167
13, 196
13, 271
13, 510
13, 314
13, 185
13, 156
13, 319
13, 806
14, 405
14, 732

Sale credit
Total
2, 792
882
1,648
6, 240
7,904
6, 995
7,546
7,234
7,173
7,247
7, 327
7,355
7, 400
7,546
7,322
7,158
7,047
7,099
7,421
7,813
8,021

Automobile sale
credit
1,267
175
544
3, 144
4, 126
3, 790
4, 039
4,041
4,061
4, 138
4. 175
< 134
4, 100
4,039
3, 962
3, 927
3, 891
3, 946
4, 171
4, 446
4, 602

Other sale
credit
1, 525
707
1, 104
3, 096
3, 778
3,205
3, 507
3, 193
3, 112
3, 109
3, 152
3, 221
3,300
3,507
3, 360
3,231
3, 156
3, 153
3,250
3,367
3,419

Loans

1

1, 632
1, 119
2, 352
4,650
5, 555
5, 110
5, 964
5,721
5, 730
5, 798
5,840
5,841
5,871
5, 964
5,992
6,027
6, 109
6,220
6, 385
6, 592
6, 711

Charge
accounts

Other
consumer
credit 2

1,544
1,498
3, 054
3, 909
4,239
3,392
4, 587
3,804
3, 743
3, 724
3, 696
3,868
4, 190
4, 587
4.253
^ 967
3, 855
3,913
3, 921
3, 980
3, 891

i Includes repair and modernization loans insured by Federal Housing Administration.
'Includes loans by pawnbrokers, service credit, and unclassified single-payment loans under $3,000 made by commercial banks.
•Preliminary estimates.
NOTB.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




28

1,063
1, 101
1, 623
2,010
2,399
2, 154
2,547
2, 497
2, 486
2,493
2,499
2,521
2,528
2, 547
2.559
2,565
2,554
2,556
2, 566
2,573
2, 577

BOND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES
During August, average yields on new issues of Treasury bills climbed to a new postwar high. Yields on Government
bonds also advanced. The commercial paper rate and yields on corporate bonds remained unchanged.
PERCENT PER ANNUM

PERCENT PER A N N U M

3.5

1947

1948

1951

1949

1952
COUNCIL

SOUPCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.

OF

ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Corporate
Aaa bonds
(Moody's)

Prime
commercial
paper,
4-6 months

[Percent per annum]
U. S. Government security
yields
Period

3-month
Treasury
bills i

Average :
1939
1946.
1947
1948
1949
1950

June
1951
1951: July __
August
SeptemberOctober
November
December
1952: January
February
March _ _ _
April
Mav
i».i.a,j
June ..
August.

_ _ _ _
_

______
_

_

_ _
_

-

__ _ _ _

_
_

- - -_ • .-

0.023
.375
.594
1. 040
1. 102
1. 218
1. 174
1.552
1. 593
1. 644
1. 646
1. 608
1. 608
1. 731
1. 688
1.574
1. 658
1. 623
1. 710
1.700
1. 824
1.876

Taxablea
bonds

2. 19
2.25
2. 44
2.31
2.32
2.33
2.57
2. 63
2.57
2. 56
2. 61
2.66
2.70
2.74
2.71
' 2. 70
2.64
2. 57
2. 61
2. 61
2.70

3.01
2.53
2. 61
2. 82
2.66
2. 62
2. 62
2.86
2. 94
2.88
2. 84
2.89
2.96
3.01
2.98
2.93
2. 96
2. 93
2. 93
2.93
2.95
2. 95

0.59
. 81
1.03
1. 44
1.48
1.45
1.31
2. 17
2.31
2.26
2. 19
2.21
2.25
2.31
2.38
2.38
2.38
2.35
2. 31
2.31
2. 31
2.31

1

Rate on new issues within period.
*1 15 years and over prior to April 1952; 12 years and over beginning in April.
Bonds in this classification were first issued in March 1941.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




29

MONEY SUPPLY
The total money supply climbed $2.1 billion during July.
deposits.

About 60 percent of tne increase was in Government

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
225

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
225

TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY

TOTAL EXCLUDING U. S. GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS
(PRIVATELY-HELD MONEY SUPPLY)

DEMAND DEPOSITS ADJUSTED

TIME DEPOSITS v

CURRENCY OUTSIDE BANKS

U.S. GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS

T-r I I I "I "T1940 41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

END OF YEAR

1950

SOURCE: BOARI

Total deposits and
currency

_ _ _ _ _ _
- - ___
- -June_

1951
1951: June
July
August
September
October
November
T)ecember
1952: January..
February _ _
March
April
Mav __ _ _
June__-_
July 4

I95I
END OF MONTH
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

End of period

1939
1945
1946
1948
1949
1950

J F M A M J J A

__

64.7
176. 4
167.5
172.7
173. 9
180.6
174. 7
189. 8
181.3
180. 8
181.6
183.8
185.8
187. 1
189.8
188.2
188. 0
188.7
188. 7
189.3
191. 4
193. 5

[Billions of dollars]
Total excluding U. S. Government deposits
(privately-held money supply)
U.S.
Government
Currency
Demand
Time
deposits *
deposits
Total
outside
deposits 3
adjusted 2
banks
27. 1
6.4
29.8
63.3
1.5
48.5
75.9
150.8
26.5
25.6
54.0
164.0
26. 7
83.3
3.5
57. 5
26. 1
85.5
169. 1
3.6
58. 6
85.8
25.4
169.8
4. 1
59.2
92.3
176.9
25. 4
3.7
59.7
85.0
25. 2
170.0
4.8
61.4
98.2
186.0
26. 3
3.9
59.9
89.0
25.8
174.7
6.6
60. 1
90.7
25. 1
175.8
5.0
60.4
91.4
25. 3
177.0
4.6
92. 0
60. 5
25.4
177. 9
5.9
95.0
60.9
25.7
181.6
4.2
60.6
96. 3
182. 7
25.8
4. 4
61.4
98.2
3.9
186. 0
26. 3
97.9
61.7
25.6
185.2
3.0
62. 0
95.7
25. 6
4.6
183. 4
62.5
25.7
94.8
182. 9
5.8
62. 8
95. 1
25. 9
4.9
183. 8
63.0
26. 0
95.3
184. 4
4.9
26. 0
95.8
63. 5
6. 1
185. 3
26. 2
96.0
63. 8
7.4
186. 1

1 Includes U. 8. Government deposits at Federal Reserve banks and commercial and savings banks, and U. S. Treasurer's time deposits,
open2 account.
Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. 8. Government, less cash items in process of collection.
* Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System, but excludes interbank deposits.
«Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Digitized for 30
FRASER


FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES
A decline in national security expenditures during August was mairily responsible for d Idrge drop in total budget
outlays. Nevertheless, expenditures remained above receipts and the cumulative budget deficit for the fiscal year
rose to $4.4 billion at the end of August.
BILLJONS OF DOLLARS'

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
75

75

TOTAL BUDGET EXPENDITURES

- -

50

- - - - - -

. - - _ . ,

-

NET BUDGET RECEIPTS

-

..^

50

S*
FISCAL YEAR 1952

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MAJOR NATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAMS

BUDGET SURPLUS (+)

OR DEFICIT (-)

(MAGNIFIED SCALE)

+5
50

FISCAL YEAR 1951

0

FISCAL YEAR 1952

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FISCAL YEARS -CUMULATIVE TOTALS

sc

[Billions of dollars]

Period

Fiscal
FiS'Cal
Fiscal
Fiscal
Fiscal
Fiscal
1951:

year 1939
vear 1944
year 1948
year 1950
year 1 951
year 1952
July
August
September.
October
November
December
1952: January .
February.
March
_ _
April
May _ _ . . .
June
July
August _ _

surplus (+)
Net budget receipts Budget
Budget expenditures
or deficit (— )
Public
Major national r
debt
Total
Cumulasecurity programs
Cumula- Total for tive fiscal (end of
Total
for
Cumula- Total for Cumula- period tive fiscal period
period)2
year
Total for tive
year
totals
tive
fiscal
fiscal
totals
period year totals period year totals
9.0
95.3
33.8
40. 2
44. 6
66. 1
4.7
5. 1
5.2
5.5
5.2
5.6
5.5
5. 1
5.7
6.0
5.7
6.9
6. 7
5.0

4.7
9. 8
15.0
20. 5
25.6
31.3
36.7
41. 8
47.5
53. 6
59.2
66. 1
6.7
11.8

1. 1
88.2
16. 4
17. 8
26. 4
3
46. 3
3.4
3. 6
3. 1
3.7
3. 6
3.7
3.9
3. 8
4. 1
4. 5
4. 5
4.3
4.9
4
3. 6

3.4
7.0
10. 1
13. 8
17.4
21. 1
25-0
28. 8
32.8
37.3
41.9
46.2
.4.9
4
8.5

5. 1
43.9
42. 2
37.0
48. 1
62. 1
2.6
3.6
6.2
2.6
3.5
5.3
5.0
5. 6
9.9
4.3
3.8
9.8
3.3
4.0

2.6
6. 2
12.4
15.0
18.5
23.8
28.8
34.3
44.2
48.5
52. 3
62. 1
3.3
7.4

-3.9
-51.4
+ 8.4
-3. 1
+ 3.5
-4.0
-2.2
-1.5
+ 1.0
-2.8
-1.7
-.3
-.5
+.4
+4.2
-1.7
-1. 9
+ 2.9
-3.4
-1.0

-2. 2
-3.7
-2.6
-5.5
-7. 1
-7.5
-8.0
-7.5
-3.3
-5.0
-6.9
-4.0
-3.4
-4.4

45.9
202. 6
252.4
257. 4
255.3
259. 2
255.7
256.7
257.4
258. 3
259. 6
259.5
259.8
260.4
258. 1
258.3
260.0
259. 2
263. 1
263. 2

1 Includes expenditures for military services, international security and foreign relations, development and control of atomic energy, promotion of the merchant
marine, promotion of defense production and economic stabilization, and civil defense.
2 Includes guaranteed securities, except those held by the Treasury.
* Preliminary estimates.
« Data for fiscal year not strictly comparable with monthly
figures.
31
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget.
^ •*•




FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM
AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC
The $0.7 billion excess of cash receipts over payments in the second quarter, which was the closing quarter for fiscal
year 1952, was sufficient to bring about a small cash surplus for the fiscal year.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25

I

2

3

4

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

1952

EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS

EXCESS OF CASH PAYMENTS

1950
CALENDAR YEARS
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT.

[Millions of dollars]
Federal cash
receipts from
the public

Calendar year
Calendar year total:
1946
__. _
_
1947
1948
1949
1950
.
1951
Quarterly total, not adjusted for seasonal variation:
1950: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1951: First quarter.
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1952: First quarter
Second Quarter _ _

__

_

_

___

__

Federal cash
payments to
the public

Excess of receipts ( + ) or
payments ( —)

41, 441
44, 282
44, 922
41, 346
42, 419
59, 276

41, 399
38, 616
36, 897
42, 642
41, 969
58, 034

+42
+ 5, 666
4-8,027
— 1, 295
+ 450
+ 1,245

12, 235
9, 303
10, 494
10, 387
18, 051
14, 462
13, 993
12, 770
21, 874
19, 389

10, 760
11, 105
9,351
10, 754
11, 179
14, 521
15, 270
17,064
16, 921
18,701

+ 1, 475
— 1,803
+ 1,143
— 367
+ 6,874
-59
- 1, 277
— 4, 295
+ 4, 953
+ 688

NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget.

32

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