Full text of Economic Indicators : September 1948
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80th Congress, 2d Session
Joint Committee Print
Economic Indicators
SEPTEMBER
1948
Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report
by the Council of Economic Advisers
and printed for the use of
the Joint Committee on the Economic Report
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1948
80772
JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio, Chairman
JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan, Vice Chairman
JOSEPH H. BALL, Minnesota
RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont
ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah
JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming
FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania
JOHN SPARKMAN, Alabama
GEORGE H. BENDER, Ohio
CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts
ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania
EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey
WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas
WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio
CHARLES O. HARDYJ Staff Director
FRED E. BERQUIST, Assistant Staff Director
JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk
WILLIAM H. MOORE, Economist
To the Members of Congress:
From the time the Joint Committee on the Economic
Report was established, its members realized that one of
its basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of
current economic trends and developments.
Fortunately, the Joint Committee finds that Economic
Indicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiled
monthly by the Council of Economic Advisers, admirably
fills this need. While this material was prepared primarily for the use of the President, the Council and other
officials in the executive offices, the Council has made it
available to the Joint Committee.
Other Members of Congress have also expressed an
interest in being able to obtain a quick picture of current
economic facts without having to go through voluminous and specialized documents. In addition,
businessmen, farm leaders, labor organizations, and representatives of the press and radio have indicated their
desire for this information. Since nothing contained
Digitized for11
FRASER
in these charts and tables is of a confidential nature they
have urged that the material be made available to the
general public.
Accordingly, the Joint Committee has for the past
several months provided the Congress and the public
with a limited number of copies of Economic Indicator
The response to these issues has indicated such widespread interest that the Committee has arranged to
release Economic Indicators each month as a committee
print until action can be taken on authorizing the pul>
lication on a more permanent basis.
Comments or suggestions with respect to possibl
improvements in this presentation will always I
welcome.
Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report.
Letter of Transmitted
Hon. ROBERT A. TAFT, Chairman,
Joint Committee on the Economic Report,
United States Congress, Washington, D. C.
DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the
Joint Committee on the Economic Report in your plans to make Economic Indicators
available to the Congress as a whole and to the general public.
In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has
found it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts
showing current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a better
position to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the
improvement and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services.
We have realized, of course, that this material has a potential usefulness not only to
the President, the Council and the executive departments, but also to the Congress.
Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly
by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and consumer organizations with
whom we regularly consult.
We believe the Joint Committee will perform a service of real value by giving wide
circulation
to this material.
?
Sincerely yours,
Chairman.
Vice Chairman.
Qp
/
in
Contents
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
Page
The Nation's Economic Budget
1
PRICES
Consumers' Prices
Wholesale Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers. . . .
Stock Prices
2
3
4
5
EMPLOYMENT
Labor Force
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours
Work Stoppages
:
6
7
8
9
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production
Production of Selected Durable Manufactures
Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures
New Construction
New Housing Starts
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
New Corporate Security Issues
Inventories and Sales
Exports and Imports
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
PURCHASING POWER
National Income
Corporate Profits
Personal Income
Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving
Per Capita Income
Average Hourly Earnings
Average Weekly Earnings
Farm Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Consumer Credit
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
Bank Loans and Investments
Money Supply
Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public
Digitized IV
for FRASER
29
30
31
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
Consumer saving and the Government surplus increased between
1947 and first half of 1948, also ; the excess of business and
foreign investment increased.
EXCESS OF
EXPENDITURES (-), RECEIPTS (+)
- '
0
+
1948, FIRST HALF (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) *
CONSUMERS
EXPENDITURES
CONSUMER
SAVING
185.5
INCOME
'///f/s
173.5
BUSINESS
21.5
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
37.8
INTERNATIONAL
i
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
GOVERNMENT
CASH
SURPLUS
64.0
1947, CALENDAR Y E A R * (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
CONSUMERS
INCOME
//////,
EXPENDITURES
CONSUMER
SAVING
173.6
164.8
BUSINESS
19.4
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
30.0
INTERNATIONAL
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
1
8.9
GOVERNMENT
59.9
CASH
SURPLUS
53.2
* A NNUA L PA TES, SEA SON A LLY ADJUSTED.
NOTE: THE COMPONENTS DO NOT ADD TO THE GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT BECAUSE OF CERTAIN ADJUSTMENTS.
SEE MIDYEAR ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JULY 1948, APPENDIX A\
SOURCE: SEE MIDYEAR ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JULY 1948, APPENDIX A.
PRICES
CONSUMERS' PRICES
Food prices advanced further in July, thus pushing consumers' prices to new highs.
prices showed little change.
Other retail
P E R C E N T OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
225
225
200
200 -
175
150
125
- 125
100
100
75 I i • I < i I - . 1 i - I ' i I < i I . . I . . I . . I . . I i i I . . I . . I . , 1 i . 1 . . 1 . . I . . 1 . . 1 i . 1 i . I . , 1 . . I . . 1 . . 1 . . I . . 1 . . 1 . . I i . I i i I . . I . . I . . I . i I i . 1 . . I i . I i i h . I TK
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
* ALSO INCLUDES HOUSEFURNISHINGS, FUEL, ELECTRICITY^ ICE,
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
AND, MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES, NOT SHOWN ON CHART.
[1935-39=100]
All items l
Period
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average. _
monthly average
monthly average.. _
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
... . ^
Food
Clothing
Rent
99.4
100. 2
105.2
116.5
123. 6
125.5
128.4
139. 3
159.2
95.2
96.6
105.5
123.9
138.0
136. 1
139. 1
159.6.
193.8
100.5
101.7
106.3
124.2
129.7
138.8
145.9
160. 2
185.8
104.3
104.6
106.2
108.5
108.0
108. 2
108.3
108.6
111.2
1947: June
July
August.
September
October
November
December
157. 1
158.4
160.3
163.8
163. 8
164. 9
167.0
190.5
193. 1
196.5
203.5
201.6
202.7
206.9
185.7
184.7
185.9
187.6
189.0
190.2
191.2
109.2
110.0
111.2
113. 6
114.9
115.2
115.4
1948; January
February.
March
April....
May
June
July
168.8
167.5
166.9
169.3
170.5
171.7
173. 7
209.7
204.7
202.3
207.9
210.9
214. 1
216.8
192. 1
195. 1
196.3
196.4
197.5
196.9
197. 1
115. 9
116.0
116.3
116.3
116.7
117.0
117. 3
1
__
_
.
Also includes housefurnishings, fuel, electricity, ice, and miscellaneous goods and services.
NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities.
Source: Department of Labor.
WHOLESALE PRICES
Wholesale prices, after advancing to new all-time highs, have fluctuated around that level for several
weeks. Farm and food prices showed a downward trend while other prices continued their creeping
advance.
PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE
220
220
200
200
180
160
140
....-• \
OTHER THAN FARM AND FOODS
120
I 00
100
SOURCE? DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
[1926=100]
All commodities
Week ended—
1946: Jan. 5...
June 29
Sept. 28..
Dec. 28
1947: Mar. 29. _.
June 28
Sept. 27
Dec. 27
1948: Jan. 17
Feb. 14
Mar. 20
Apr. 17
May 29....
June 5
12
19.
26
July 3
10
17
24
31
Aug. 7
14
21
28
_
__
^
1
-
_
.
-.
._
_
_
_
Source: Department of Labor.
_
106. 8
112.7
124.4
139.6
149. 4
147.6
156. 2
163.0
165.5
159.7
161.5
162.9
164.4
164.2
164.9
165. 3
166. 7
166.7
166.8
168.9
168.2
168.3
169.2
169.0
169.2
168.4
Farm
products
131.3
140. 3
156. 6
167.7
183.8
179. 0
184.7
197.0
201.5
180.9
187.6
189.2
193.0
192.4
193.5
194. 5
198.4
197.2
196. 1
198.1
194. 6
192.2
193. 6
190.4
191.0
189. 3
Foods
108.0
113.4
133.0
159. 1
166.5
162.2
177.6
177.8
181.2
173.3
176.4
178.8
178. 0
178.0
180. 1
180.7
183.0
184. 1
185.3
191.2
190.4
187.7
190.0
190. 3
185.9
187. 8
Other than
farm and
foods
100.6
105.4
112.4
123.9
131.9
132.0
138.2
146.0
147.4
147. 5
147. 3
148.3
149.3
149.3
149. 3
149. 5
149.9
149.8
149.9
150.4
150. 6
152. 1
152.4
152. 9
153. 1
153. 2
PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received in Aug. fell 3 percent, reflecting a decrease in the prices of most crops.
Prices paid by farmers remained stable.
PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE
350
PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE
350
MONTHLY AVERAGE
300
300
250'
250
200
200
PRICES PAID
(INCL. INTEREST, TAXES)
150
150
100
100
PARITY RATIO
50
50
1 1 1 1 t
1939
40
41
42
43
44
i
1
1 1 1 1
1 1
1 1
J . F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
45
1946
1947
1948
SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[1910-14=100]
Prices paid by
Prices
(includreceived farmers
interest Parity ratio *
by farmers * ing
and taxes)
Period
1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1 943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: June.
July...
August.
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February...
March
April
May
June
_
July
August..,.
.
Z^fcTZ » • < M+'
1
8
_
.
__ _ _
_
..
__ .
..
.
95
100
124
159
192
195
202
233
278
124
125
132
150
162
169
172
193
231
77
80
94
106
119
115
117
121
120
271
276
276
286
289
287
301
230
230
234
238
239
241
245
118
120
118
120
121
119
123
307
279
283
291
289
295
301
293
251
248
247
249
250
251
251
251
122
112
115
117
116
118
120
117
August 1909-July 1914=100.
Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and taxes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
STOCK PRICES
Stock prices continued their downward trend in August. Security markets were
sluggish.
PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 AVERAGE
175
MONTHLY AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
175
I 50
150
125
125
100
100
75
50
1939
40
41
42
44
43
J F
45
M
A M
J
J
1946
SOURCE :
STANDARD
AND POOR'S
CORPORATION.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[1935-39 = 100]
Combined
index 1
Period
1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
-
-
—
94.2
88. 1
80.0
69.4
91.9
99. 8
121.5
139.9
123.0
119. 1
126.0
124.5
123. 1
125. 1
123.6
122.4
120.1
114.2
116.4
124.6
130.2
135. 1
131.9
127. 1
Industrials l
94.8
87.9
80.4
71.3
94.1
101.7
123.3
143.4
128.0
124. 1
131.7
130.2
128.4
131. 1
130.3
129.2
126.0
119.2
121.8
130.8
136.9
142.7
138.9
133.5
Railroads *
74.7
71. 1
70.6
66. 1
88.7
101.0
136.9
143.0
105.3
97.6
108.2
105.2
103.6
104.2
100. 1
103.9
106.5
101.9
105.2
115.2
122.6
125. 6
124.7
119.7
Utilities *
98.6
95.8
81.0
61.3
82.1
89.9
106.1
120.2
102.9
100.8
102*2
101.4
102.0
101.0
97.2
94.0
95.1
92.6
93.0
96.2
99.2
100.6
99.1
97.3
1
Combined index prior to June 23, 1948, was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials,
20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads,
and 31 utilities.
Source: Standard & Poor's Corp.
80772—48
2
EMPLOYMENT
LABOR FORCE
Civilian employment remained above 61 million in July as a large number of youths entering the summer
labor market were absorbed by agriculture and industry. Due primarily to vacations, the number employed
but not at work increased greatly. Unemployment continued at a low level.
75
— MILLIONS OF PERSONS
50
25
25
MONTHLY A V E R A G E
J
F M ' A M J
J
A
S
0
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A. SON
D O
F
M_ A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
UNEM PLO YEC
i—i E 1
1941
SOURCE:
1944
1945
..L
t
1
1946
1
\
1
I
I
\ } \ } } \ i i {..MS...! * * t L..'.'I 1.. i i i i i I o
I
1947
1946
1948
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
COUNCIL
[Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over]
Total labor
force, including
armed
forces
Period
1941 monthly
1944 monthly
1945 monthly
1946 monthly
1947 monthly
average
average. __
average
average...
average
1947: June
July
August
September.
October.
November
December
1948: January.
February
March
April
May
June
July...
August l
1
_
_
C] vilian employ*3d
Total
In nonagricultural
industries
In agri-
Armed
forces
Unemployed
57,
65,
65,
60,
61,
380
890
140
820
608
50, 350
53, 960
52, 820
55, 250
58, 027
41,
45,
44,
46,
49,
250
010
240
930
761
9, 100
8,950
8,580
8,320
8,266
1,470
11, 260
11, 280
3,300
1,440
5,560
670
1,040
2,270
2, 141
64,
64,
63,
62,
62,
61,
60,
007
035
017
130
219
510
870
60,
60,
59,
58,
59,
58,
57,
49,
50,
50,
50,
50,
50,
50,
678
013
594
145
583
609
985
10, 377
10, 066
8,975
8,727
8,622
7,985
6,962
1,398
1,371
1,352
1,346
1,327
1,294
1,280
2,555
2,584
2,096
1,912
1,687
1,621
1,643
50, 089
50, 368
50, 482
50, 883
50, 800
51, 899
52, 452
52, 801
7, 060
6, 771
6, 847
7,448
7,861
9,396
9,163
8,444
1, 242
1, 226
1,236
1,237
1,238
1,260
1,293
1, 325
2,065
2,639
2, 440
2, 193
1,761
2,184
2,227
1,941
60, 455
61, 004
61, 005
61, 760
61, 660
64, 740
65, 135
64, 511
055
079
569
872
204
595
947
57, 149
57, 139
57, 329
58, 330
58, 660
61, 296
61, 615
61, 245
Data became available after chart was prepared.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
OF ECONOMIC AOVI
NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
Nonagricultural
employment continued at peak levels in July.
MILLIONS OF EMPLOYEES
MILLIONS OF EMPLOYEES
60
60
30
®mmFEDERAL,
STATE, AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT:;•:•:
•WrWS&Wft:^
20
I0
I0
1939
*
1941
1944
1945
SEE TABLE, FOOTNOTE I.
SOURCE:
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
[Thousands of employees]
Total wage
and salary
workers l
Period
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: June
July
. ___
August
September
October
November
December
1948 : January
February
March
April
May
June
July 2
-_
_
---- --
30, 287
36, 164
41, 480
40, 069
41, 494
43, 970
43, 816
43, 686
44, 125
44, 513
44, 758
44, 918
45, 618
44, 603
44, 279
44, 599
44, 295
44, 626
45, 046
45, 059
Manufacturing
10, 078
12, 974
17, 111
15, 302
14, 515
15, 901
15, 672
15, 580
15, 962
16, 175
16, 209
16, 256
16, 354
16, 267
16, 183
16, 269
15, 945
15, 604
16, 161
16, 181
Trade
6,705
7,567
7,399
7,685
8,820
9, 450
9,324
9, 316
9,356
9, 471
9, 684
9,886
10, 288
9,622
9, 520
9,599
9,574
9,617
9,671
9,638
Federal,
State, and
local government
3,987
4,622
6, 026
5,967
5,607
5,450
5,454
5, 341
5,318
5,403
5,414
5,387
5, 638
5,498
5,492
5,546
5,577
5, 624
5,607
5,596
Other
9,517
11,001
10, 944
11, 115
12, 552
13, 170
13, 366
13, 449
13, 489
13, 464
13, 451
13,389
13, 338
13, 216
13, 084
13, 185
13, 202
13, 481
13, 607
13, 644
- Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or
received pay during the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed
persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 6) which include
proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not
at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates
in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
2
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.
I ;i?jBL(3E W EEKLY HOUR15
/ \f E
Tlie we>rl<W<36K in manufactur ing and mos>t nonmanufcacturing iiid ust rieIS (3P 0)dmated 40 hours in
P'
Ju n<*, Vvit h pr<•Hi m inary data indicating o small decnBase in VJu ly 1fo r ITia nu fcacturing inclustries.
HOUF s PE
HOUFIS PEF? \VEE K
\\
VEE:K
A LL. N4A,N UFACTURINi3 INDUSTRI ES
B IT UMINOUS CO AL MINING
50
50
N OK IHl.Y
ftVE
'TT~
-v
4f- -If
RA 3E
%^
/I
F!tt
»wn*
40
40
m
30
30
20
20
1 0
1 0
i
* 1111 111111 1 11 11 111 ' '' 1 11111 11 111
0
93 9 41
44
PF*IVAlFE
50
MON THL Y t
1946
45
1947
n
V
1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 11 ,,,,.!,,,..
0
939 41
1948
/X IS
44
1946
45
BUILDING CONSTRUCT!noN
i i i i i 1 i i i tt
1947
1948
RETAIL T RADE
50
VER AGE
•PI
40
40
x—+•
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1i i 1 1 11 111 i11
;:;•
IS33S 41
44
45
1947
1946
I1 1 11 1 1 1 1 11
1948
0
F^H
r*i
— •"~^.i
44
45
1946
"^ 11!.•*•.*»
,,,,,, ,,,,,l,i,,.
I93*3
41
1947
1948
<SO'JRC,E : C EP ART MEN T OF LABOR
8 FRASER
Digitized for
[Hours per week, selected industries]
All manufacturing
industries
Period
1939
1941
1944
1945
1946
1947
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
1947: June
July
August
September
October
November..
December
1948: January
February
March
April
May
June 3
July*..
1
?
8
.
. .
_
__
;
„
Bituminous
coal mining
Private
building 1
construction
Retail trade
37.7
40.6
45.2
43.4
40.4
40.3
27. 1
31. 1
43.4
42.3
41.6
40.7
32.6
34.8
39. 6
39.0
38. 1
37.8
43.0
42.5
40.3
40.3
40.5
40.2
40.2
39.8
39.8
40.4
40.6
40.4
41.2
43.7
31.8
39. 1
39. 1
39.9
38.5
41.2
37.7
37.9
39.7
38.0
38.0
36.6
37.9
40.8
41. 1
41.0
40.0
40.0
39. 5
39.7
40.5
40.2
40.4
40. 1
39.9
40. 2
39.8
40.9
38.7
40. 6
27.0
40.3
40.3
37.2
36.7
37. 1
37.0
37. 1
37. 9
39.8
40.0
39. 8
39.8
39. 9
40. 3
2
Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.
1 I 1 1 I |j I 1 1 1
WORK STOPPAGES
About 2 million workdays were lost in July because of work stoppages. This represents only a
slight increase over the June loss.
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE
25
25
20
15
10
10
PEAK MONTH
\
1939 40
41 42
43
44
45
J F M A M J
J
A S
1946
* PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
COUNCIL-OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Man-days
idle
(thousands)
Period
1939: Monthly average
April*—peak month
1940: Monthly average
1941: Monthly average
April—peak month
1942: Monthly average
1943: Monthly average
J une—peak month
1944: Monthly average
1945: Monthly average.
October—peak month
1946: Monthly average
1947: Monthly average
1947: June
July
August
—
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April
May
June 1
July
—.
Preliminary estimate.
1,484
4,902
Principal stoppage
Coal.
559
1,921
7,113
Coal.
349
1,125
4,699
Coal.
727
-
3,168
8,610
9,672
2,908
4,000
4,000
2,500
2,000
1,900
700
500
1,000
725
6,000
8,000
4, 100
2,000
2,200
Source: Department of Labor.
Coal.
Coal, meat packing.
Coal, meat packing.
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Industrial production increased about 2 percent in August, thus regaining most of the loss in July
when there were many plant-wide vacations.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
Points in Total Index
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
1935-39
AVERAGE
1943
AVERAGE
1945
AVERAGE
A
M
J
J
1946
* PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
SOURCE: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve S y s t e m
[1935-39 = 100, seasonally adjusted]
Point 3 in total inclex,
1935-39 a^rerage for total=100
Inde^ces, 1935-39=100
Period
Mining
100
176
166
165
172
168
163
169
172
176
179
173
178
180
177
177
178
178
171
176
100
132
137
134
149
148
140
150
153
155
155
156
154
155
142
147
162
159
154
160
1935-39 monthly average!
1943 monthly average...
1945 monthly average...
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: June.
July
August
September
October
November „
December
1948: January
February
March.
April
May
June
July i l
August
10
ManufcEictures
Manufact ures
Total
industrial
Nonduraproduction Total Durable
goods ble goods
Preliminary estimate.
100
239
203
170
187
184
176
182
187
190
192
192
193
194
191
188
191
192
187
191
100
258
214
177
194
191
183
188
192
197
199
198
200
201
200
195
197
198
193
197
100
360
274
192
220
219
207
210
217
223
224
229
229
226
229
217
220
222
219
222
Durable
goods
38
136
104
73
83
83
79
80
83
84
85
87
87
86
87
82
83
84
83
84
Nondurable goods
47
83
78
77
81
79
76
79
80
83
84
81
83
84
83
83
83
84
80
83
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Mining
15
20
21
21
23
23
21
23
23
24
24
24
23
24
22
22
25
24
24
24
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE
MANUFACTURES
Production of transportation equipment in July increased more than 5 percent above the June rate as the
number of passenger cars and trucks assembled reached a new postwar peak. Lumber production
increased more than seasonally. The output of iron and steel decreased about 3 percent.
PERCENT OF 1935- 39 A V E R A G E
PERCENT OF 1935-39 A V E R A G E
TRANSPORTATION
EQUIPMENT
LUMBER AND PRODUCTS
800
400
MONTHLY AVERAGE
700
300
600
200
500
100
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
1935-39 1943 1945
1946
1947
1948
1935-39 1943 1945
1946
1947
1948
1935-39 1943 1945
1946
1947
1948
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Transportation
equipment
Period
._
1947: June
July.
August
September
October
November.December
1948: January
February
March
April
May
June
July *
1
-
-—
-
_.
'•
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal^Reserve System.
100
208
183
150
230
144
195
233
217
213
142
133
142
193
181
188
234
243
150
153
227
232
244
232
240
-
Iron and steel
100
130
110
130
100
734
487
232
1935-39 monthly average.
1943 monthly average..
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
Lumber and
products
237
218
223
235
140
143
195
204
156
150
151
203
203
207
145
142
140
143
202
205
177
207
207
201
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE
MANUFACTURES
The July output of textile industries was about 9 percent below the June level. The output of
most other nondurable industries continued steady.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS
300
PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS
300
MONTHLY AVERAGE
200
200
100
100
1935-39
43
45
1946
1947
1935-39
1948
43
1947
1948
CHEMICAL PRODUCTS
IVIA NlIR&CTURED FO OD PRODUC TS
400
MC>NTHU AV
1946
45
400
:R« 6E
300
300
200
200
tn
—
100
I 00
i M i i 1 1 1 1 1 i , , , , , ) , . , , , ,, , , , ! , , , , ,
1935-39
43
45
1946
1947
1935-39
1948
43
1946
45
1947
1948
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Textiles and
products
Period
1935-39 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February _
March
April
May
June.
July i
1
._
:
_
„
_
_
_
12
Manufactured food
products
Chemical
products
100
153
146
162
163
100
185
235
173
193
100
145
151
150
157
100
384
284
236
251
155
142
154
160
164
172
163
191
195
201
203
204
205
208
154
155
157
158
156
158
157
250
251
249
248
248
251
255
178
179
175
174
176
172
157
214
214
211
213
220
221
220
158
160
159
158
159
164
163
255
252
250
249
249
256
255
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Gpvernors of the Federal Reserve System,
Petroleum
and coal
products
NEW CONSTRUCTION
Construction of $ 1.8 billion in August exceeded the previous postwar record volume reached
in July.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2,000
2,000
MONTHLY AVERAGE
TOTAL
NEW CONSTRUCTION
1,500
1,500
i FEDERALii
ESTATE, AND!
LOCAL*:ii!
1,000
1,000
OTHER PRIVATE
500
-
;-
500
RESIDENTIAL NONFARM
1939 1942 1944 1945 1946 1947
J
F M A M J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
COUNCIL
OF
A
S
O
N
O
INCLUDES PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
ECONOMIC ADVISERS
] Millions of dollars]
Private construction
Total new
construction
Period
1939 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: June
July..
August
September
October
November
December
1948 : January
February
March
April
May
June__
_ _ _ _
July 2
August
1
__
__
526
1,118
345
401
871
1, 165
1, 162
1,264
1,364
1,423
1,497
1,432
1,320
1, 157
1,009
1, 166
1,311
1,461
1,616
1,719
1,785
Total
private
Residential
(nonfarm)
317
251
152
226
688
908
885
966
1,042
1, 086
1, 129
1, 141
1,097
948
837
940
1,024
1, 120
1,235
1,320
1,355
Includes public residential construction.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.
176
110
45
57
265
438
405
455
500
540
590
630
610
500
400
475
525
585
635
675
690
OtVuvn
141
141
107
169
422
469
480
511
542
546
539
511
487
448
437
466
499
535
600
645
665
Federal,
State, and
local *
208
867
193
174
184
257
277
298
322
337
368
291
223
209
172
226
287
341
381
399
430
13
NEW HOUSING STARTS
The number of new houses started in July was 2,000 below the June number, but 13,000
above that of a year ago.
THOUSANDS
THOUSANDS OF UNITS
UNITS
40
- 40
20
- 20
•H- NEW NONFARM FAMILY DWELLING UNITS.
SOURCE:
DEPARTMENT
OF
LABOR.
New nonfarm units (conveiJ itional and
prefabricated)
Period
Total
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: January
February.
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1 948 : January.
February
March
April
May
June
July
1
__
_
__>_
_ _
....
_
..
_.
_
Urban
Rural nonfarm
64, 683
71, 125
41, 164
40, 125
23, 520
31, 000
39, 300
42, 800
56, 700
67, 900
73, 100
79, 400
81, 100
86, 800
93, 800
94, 000
79, 800
58, 800
24, 200
25, 000
32, 300
38, 000
39, 300
43, 000
44, 500
47, 400
50, 300
53, 200
48, 000
36, 300
15, 100
17, 800
24, 400
29, 900
33, 800
36, 400
36, 600
39, 400
43, 500
40, 800
31, 800
22, 500
50, 000
47, 200
70, 000
92, 000
97, 000
96, 000
94, 000
30, 400
28, 800
41, 800
54, 300
56, 400
52, 900
53, 000
19, 600
18, 400
28, 200
37, 700
40, 600
43, 100
41, 000
New nonfarn* family dwelling units. Temporary units are excluded after 1947 when the program ended.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Labor.
14
OF
100
100
EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT
AND EQUIPMENT
Plans of nonagricultural business for spending $18.3 billion (annual rate) on new plant and equipment
in 3rd quarter 1948, are at about the same level as 2nd quarter, and $1.7 billion more than actual expenditures
a year ago. The anticipated increase over a year ago reflects mainly the upward movement of prices.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25
25
ANN UAL TOTALS
20
15
TRANSPORTATION AND
ELECTRIC AND GAS
::::
''^
10
MANUFACTURING
AND
MINING
1939
*
1945
1941
NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL
VARIATION.
SOURCES; SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
[Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal]
Transp ortation
Total i
Period
Manufacturing
Mining
Railroad
1939
1941
1945
1946
1947
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter 8
Second quarter
Third quarter 3
._
Electric and Commercial
gas utilities and miscel-
Other
5,200
8, 190
6,630
12, 040
16, 180
1,930
3,400
3,210
5, 910
7,460
380
680
440
560
690
280
560
550
570
910
280
340
320
660
800
480
710
630
1,040
1,900
1,850
2,490
1,480
3,300
4,430
12, 640
15, 760
16, 560
19, 760
5,800
7,400
7,480
9,160
600
640
720
840
640
880
920
1,200
720
920
800
760
1,320
1,800
2,000
2,480
3,600
4,120
4,640
5,360
16, 680
18, 760
18, 280
7,200
8,040
7,400
720
720
720
1,080
1,400
1,520
720
840
680
2,000
2,440
2,600
4,960
5,320
5,360
1
2
3
Excludes agriculture.
Includes trade, service, finance, and communication.
Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business.
NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to
current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other
data.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted).
15
NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES
New issues in 2nd quarter 1948 were slightly higher than in the previous quarter. The proportion of
proceeds earmarked for plant and equipment continued to increase.
BILLIONS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
OF DOLLARS
3.0
3 .0
QUARTERLY
AVERAGE
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.0
.5
1939
SOURCE:
1943
1945
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE C O M M I S S I O N .
[Millions of dollars]
1Droposed uses of net proceed 3
Estimated
net proceeds
Period
New money
Total
1939 quarterly
1943 quarterly
1945 quarterly
1946 quarterly
1947 quarterly
average..
average
average
average „
average
__
1
529
287
1,476
1,689
1,528
1947: First quarter. __
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
.
__ _
16
Working
capital
81
77
270
820
39
42
111
291
261
1,206
1,068
43
35
159
529
806
673
932
797
396
636
649
278
296
148
325
344
672
469
354
845
555
274
214
309
1,018
1,605
1,266
2,223
1,867
1,542
1, 614
1,663
1,400
1,353
1,080
Includes small amount for other purposes.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.
Plant and
equipment
Retirement
of debt and
stock l
448
210
869
460
1
INVENT OKIES 1IND SAILiES
1Manufacturing
sa les in July were 10 percent below June b ecause of plant-wide vacations in many
Depar tment store sales showed a slight increa se.
i ndustries.
BILL IONS
OF DOLLARS
BILL IONS OF DOLLARS
WHOLESALE
MANUFACTURING
30
30
NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEAS 3NAL VARIATION
*~\
^«.^*
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
INVENTORIES*
+ ~'
20
20
yv<s-A^
—/7—S
^->^!!S—^^i
„ ^~^^
^
— *~
SALES*
x/^"*^
10
0
1
\
1 1 \
|
1 0
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 i 1I 1 I i I i i
i i i i i 1i i i i j
1947
1948
1946
BILL.IONS
11111111111 i* 111* 1 1111
0
1946
1 1
!
I !
1 1 1 1 1 1
1948
1947
PERCE NT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
OF DOLLARS
RETAIL
DEPARTMENT STORE S
30
4OO
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
20
s~%***
SALES"*
300
^y^^/^s*^^^ /
\l--f\
INVENTORIES^
X^.» — «*..^— — *****"
r
' ' '""" **
1
S ALES*
1 0
X^~
200
INVENTORIES**
—-J-^X——-*'"'
0
!
1 1 1 I 1 I
1 1 1 1
'*'
i t i I i 1 i t i i i
I I 1 I I 1 t I 1 I 1
1947
1948
1946
1 00
i i 11 i i I i i 1 t
i i 1 1 .1 1 1 i I i I
1946
1947
x SALES ARE TOTAL FOR ¥ONTH AND INVENTORIES ARE BOOK VALUE, END OF MONTH.
Manufa< Bturing *
Sales <
1948
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISER 5
Ret ail
Whol(jsale *
Inventories *
Sales
4
Inventories *
3
Departnujnt stores
Sales *
^
...
_
18, 775
19, 472
21, 502
23, 435
25, 398
25, 853
26, 440
26, 479
26, 846
27, 051
27, 055
27, 397
27, 627
28, 020
28, 501
28, 768
29, 064
29, 161
29, 437
29, 738
30,100
10, 712
11, 131
13, 055
14, 635
15, 546
15, 398
15, 048
15, 063
14, 361
15, 257
16, 597
18, 082
16, 554
17, 523
16,552
16, 225
18, 117
17, 229
16, 777
17, 866
16, 000
4,304
4,578
5,131
5,994
6,611
6, 778
6,737
6,864
6,726
6,886
6,997
6,943
7,349
7,577
7,618
7,754
8,054
8,049
8,071
8,239
9,691
10, 370
11, 402
13, 052
12, 627
12, 218
12, 369
12, 541
12, 403
12, 523
13, 263
13, 615
14, 333
13, 697
14, 096
13, 993
13, 426
13, 684
13, 847
13, 740
Inventories
Sales
1935-39=10 0, seasonally
ad jus ted«
Millions (Df dollars
1946: March......
June
September
December...
1947: March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April
May
June 0
July'....
1 1 1 I I ! 1 1
*K INDEXES COMPUTED FROM DATA ON RETAIL VALUE OF SALES FOf 7 MOUTH AND RETAIL
BOOK VALUE OF INVENTORIES, END OF MONTH
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF <COMMERCE AND BOARD OF 60 VERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RICSERVE SYS1PEM.
Period
1 1 f
8,023
8,917
9,995
11, 049
11, 832
11, 974
11, 772
11, 948
11, 925
11, 944
12, 073
12, 435
12, 621
12, 953
13, 384
13, 751
14, 040
13, 907
13, 951
14, 168
7,783
8, 101
8,811
9,205
9, 399
9,610
9,681
9,743
9,730
9,621
10, 162
10, 258
10, 485
10, 653
10, 445
10, 381
10, 565
10, 841
10, 599
10, 715
177
210
226
274
273
264
252
242
231
227
231
251
273
283
288
303
312
308
296
283
255
275
272
276
272
278
290
288
287
284
294
279
302
303
286
286
285
306
310
312
315
6
Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for
month
and retail book value of inventories, end of month.
8
Preliminary estimate.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
1
Not adjusted
1
for seasonal variation.
Adjusted for seasonal variation.
8
4
Book value, end of month.
Total for month.
17
EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
Imports increased again in June. The value of exports continued down.
MILLIONS
OF
DOLLARS
MILLIONS
OF
DOLLARS
1,600
1,600
1,400
-
—
1,200
1,000
- 1,200
— 1,000
-
800
800
- 600
600 -
400
400
200 -
—
1936-38
*
RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, AND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES. FOR OCCUPIED. AREAS
*X RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY
[Millions of dollars]
Period
Exports *
1936-38 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April
May
June
Julys
1
Recorded
2
Recorded
3
'
^
Excess of
exports
877
849
1,281
207
282
346
409
478
40
798
531
440
803
1,503
1, 320
1, 265
1,265
1,183
1,303
1,195
1, 199
474
463
450
400
481
492
455
601
1,029
1,091
1,086
1,141
1,122
1, 103
1,013
1,022
546
582
666
527
549
616
559
545
504
475
595
554
397
463
247
1,080
.
Imports s
merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas,
general merchandise imports.
Data became available after chart was prepared.
Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy.
18
1,400
857
815
865
702
811
740
598
200
PURCHASING POWER
NATIONAL INCOME
National income increased very little in 2nd quarter, the only significant increase being in
business and professional income (part of proprietors' income as shown on the chart).
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
250
ANNUAL TOTALS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
TOTAL NATIONAL
INCOME
200
200
CORPORATE PROFITS AND
INVENTORY VALUATION
ADJUSTMENT.
PROPRIETORS AND RENTAL
88S& INCOME
I 50
I 00
I 00
100
I COMPENSATION OF
EMPLOYEES
50
50
1944
1939
1
1945
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1947
1946
1948
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
[Billions of dollars]
Total
National
Income
Period
1939
1944
1945
1946
1947
-
72.5
182.4
181.7
179.3
202.5
Compensation of
employees
47.8
121.1
122.9
117.3
127.5
Corporate profProprietors'
its and invenand rental Net interest tory
valuation
income
adjustment
14.7
34.1
36.0
41.8
46.0
4.2
3. 1
3.0
3.4
4.3
5.8
24.0
19.8
16.8
24.7
Annual i•ates, seasonall y adjusted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
197.3
199.3
200.6
212.8
125.0
125.3
127.6
132.2
46.4
44.6
44.4
48.6
4. 1
4.2
4.4
4.5
21.8
25.2
24.3
27.5
1948: First quarter1 1
Second quarter
215. 1
217.4
133.7
133.9
50.6
51.9
4.6
4.7
26.2
26.9
1
Revised.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
19
CORPORATE PROFITS
Corporate profits for 1st. quarter of this year were just below the peak reached in 4th. quarter 1947.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
40
40
ANNUAL TOTALS
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
3 0
30
2 0
2 0
«• »:<•[""PlYiV'
I 0
^,(Ii/l1^
~
•:.'« .'fflfli'V!:^:*^^ ".•'•,
. .
.. L!.' !!5 .
..5. If!..
. i. r
..
.
5.
\ PROFITS
> AFTER
TAXES
I0
s
^{UNDISTRIBUTED ! « „
PROFITS!; t^hi'i'i'i;,,
VjWJSm&lK^
^hiiB^M''!1''!!.'..''/!'!.'!.",
''I '.'! ill' iril. i'H ii •."•• •::l.ll: :.. ::. »i!>
Ji
1929
1939
1943
2 .
2
3
*
2
3
1947
1946
3
A0 ALLOWANCE FOR INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT.
SOURCE:
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Corporate
profits
before taxes
Period
1929
1939
1943
1946
1947
9.8
6.5
24.5
21.8
29.8
Corporate
tax
liability
1.4
1.5
14.2
9.0
11.7
Corporate profits af1ter taxes
Total
8.4
5.0
10.4
12.8
18.1
Dividend
payments
5.8
3.8
4.5
5.6
6.9
Undistributed
profits
2.6
1.2
5.9
7.2
11.2
Annual i•ates, seasonal!y adjusted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter.
„
28.9
28.8
29. 1
32.4
11.4
11.3
11.4
12.7
17.5
17.5
17.7
19.7
6.4
6.7
6.9
7.1
11.1
10.8
10.8
12.6
31.4
12.2
19.2
7.3
11.9
NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventoryjvaluation adjustment. See p. 19 for profits after
taxes and inventory valuation adjustment.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
ao
4
1948
PERSONAL INCOME
Wage increases and a further rise in farm income (part of proprietors1 income shown on chart) pushed personal
income in June to the record level of $211.9 billion (annual rate)—$4.7 billion higher than the May rate.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
250
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
200
200
I 50
150
100
100
J
1939 1944 1945
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
1946
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
1947
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
1948
' TERMINAL LEAVE BOND CASHING STARTED IN SEPTEMBER, 1947
SOURCE:
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
[Billions of dollars]
Total
personal
income
Period
1939...
1944
1945
1946
1947
72.6
164.5
170.3
178.1
195.2
-
Salaries, wages, Proprietors1 Dividends Social security
and rental and interest and GI payand other
ments
income
labor income
45.6
116. 1
116.8
111. 4
121.9
14.7
34. 1
36.0
41.8
46.0
9.2
10.6
11.4
13.5
15.6
3.0
3.6
6.2
11.4
11.7
Annual nites, seasonal!}r adjusted
1947: May
June
July-.
August
September
October.. _
November
December
1948: January
February. _.
March
April
May
June
_
188.6
192. 4
193.2
190.8
206.2
200.0
201.4
207.7
118.8
121.4
121. 2
121.9
123.8
124. 6
127.4
129.3
44.2
45. 1
45.3
42. 8
45.0
47.5
47. 1
51.3
15.3
15.4
15. 6
15.6
16.2
15.9
16.1
16.2
10.3
10.5
11. 1
10.5
21. 2
12.0
10.8
10.9
209.4
206.8
205.6
207.4
207.2
211.9
129.4
128.9
127.6
127.0
128.8
131.3
52.4
50.0
49.3
51.9
50.7
53.0
16. 5
16.6
16.6
16.7
16.8
16.8
11. 1
11.3
12. 1
11.8
10.9
11.0
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
21
CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING
Consumption income increased more than expenditures in the 2nd quarter, according to revised data
There was a small increase in the rate of saving.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
250
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
200
200
I 50
I 50
DISPOSABLE
PERSONAL INCOME
f 00
I 00
CONSUMPTION
EXPENDITURES
1939
1940
* PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES
** PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
SOURCE:
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
[Billions of dollars]
Disposable
personal
income J
Period
1939.
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944.
1945
1946.
1947
.
_
70.2
75. 7
92.0
116.2
131.6
145.6
149. 4
159.2
173.6
...
_
Less: Personal
consumption
expenditures
Equals: Personal saving
67.5
72. 1
82.3
90.8
101.6
111.4
122.8
147.4
164.8
2.7
3. 7
9. 8
25.4
30. 0
34,2
26. 6
11. 8
8.8
Annual ]rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
2
1948: First quarter 2
Second quarter
.
_
169.7
168.2
175.0
180.9
158.1
164. 2
165.6
171.1
11. 6
4. 1
9. 4
183.7
187.3
172.0
175. 1
11.7
12.2
1
Income less taxes.
* Revised.
NOTE.—-Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
22
9.7
PER CAPITA INCOME
Real purchasing power per capita has been almost stationary for a year.
DOLLARS
DOLLARS
1,600
1,600
SEASONALLY
ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
1947 DOLLARS**
1,200
1,200
800
800
CURRENT DOLLARS
400
400
I
1939
1940
1944
1943
1942
1941
I
2
3
1946
1945
* PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES,
4
1
2 3
1947
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
Per capita disposable personal
mcome *
Period
Current
dollars
—
1947 dollars *
$536
$859
1,054
1,070
1,127
1,205
1,045
1,179
1,242
1,338
1,326
1,288
1,205
574
691
863
964
.
-
-
-
913
Annual rate s, seasonally
adju isted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter..
1948: First quarter 8 3
Second quarter
..»
...
1948
*## PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES.
#* CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE 1947*100
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945..
1946
1947
2***3
Consumers'
price index,
1947=100
62.4
62.9
66. 1
73.2
77. 6
78.8
80.7
87.5
100.0
Not adjusted
for seasonal
variation
1,186
1,170
1, 212
1,246
1,224
1, 191
1,200
1,200
96.9
98.2
101.0
103.8
1,261
1,280
1,198
1,195
105.3
107.0
1
Income
8
Current
1
less taxes.
dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base 1947=100.
Revised.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.
23
AVERAC3E HOU]RLY
EA:RNINGS
1
^Average hourly ecirnings continued to increase geneirally in June as further wage- increase <agreements
:
\were reached. P reliminary data 1 or manufacturin g Industries indicate a continuation of this trend
1n July.
DOLLA RS PER HOUR
OOLLA RS PER HOUR
RETAIL TRADE
MANUFACTURING
1.50
1.50
—
1947 DOLLARS*
ajSU**---1"™
-**"*
*-"*„.
-
1.00
19 47
K"""
1.00
-«•--— V
DOLLARS*
iSSBl^-*—"^••*^S
^
•
•*
CUR RENT DOLLARS
\)UF
.50
.50
0
i i i t i 1 t i i i i
i i i i i 1 i i i i i
1946
1947
0
. , I . . i . ! 1 . I
i i i i i i i i i i i
,.,,,!,,...
1946
1947
1948
1948
PRIVATE: BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
BITU MINOUS COAL Ml NING
2.00
2.00
1947
1.50
***+ ^ • — " "
CUF
~***J
rr^i
1947
DOLLARS*^x?-|
— %-^y
DOLLARS*
^^^ •
*~
1.50
^__^^
\
CUF RENT DOLLARS
RENT DOLLARS
1.0.0
1. 00
.50
.50
0
RENT DOLLARS
i i i i i 1 i i i i i
i | i i i 1 i i i i i
1946
1947
!
1
1
1
1
1
I
1
1
1
I
0
i t i i i 1 i i i i i
i
, , . , , ! . , , . ,
1946
1947
1948
1948
# CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX Ot V THE BASE 1947*100
SOURCE:
DEPARTMENT OF
COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS
LABOR.
[Selected industries]
Manufa icturing
Retail trade
Bituminous coal mining
Private building construetion *
Period
Current
dollars
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average.
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: May
June
July
August.
_
September
October
_
November
December
1948: January
February
__
March
April
May 4
June4
July
1
8
_
$0. 633
.729
1. 019
1.023
1.084
1.221
1.207
1.226
1.230
1.236
1.249
1.258
1.268
1.278
1.285
1.287
1.289
1.292
1.302
1.317
1.330
1947
dollars 8
$1.014
1. 103
1.293
1.268
1.239
1.221
1.232
1.242
1.236
1.227
1.214
1.223
1.224
1.218
1.212
1.223
1.230
1.215
1.216
1.221
1.212
Current
dollars
$0. 536
.568
.724
.773
.878
.991
.985
.996
1.003
1.003
1.012
1. 013
1.025
1.016
1.044
1.050
1.044
1. 055
1.064
1.070
Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
Current dollars divided by consumers1 price index on the base 1947=100.
Source: Department of Labor.
24
1947
dollars 8
$0. 859
.859
.919
.958
1. 003
.991
1.005
1.009
1.008
.996
.983
.986
.989
.969
.985
.998
.996
.992
.993
.992
Current
dollars
$0. 886
.993
1.186
1.240
1. 401
1.644
1.470
1.489
1.740
1.787
1.819
1.798
1.851
1.826
1.847
1.826
1.842
* 1. 821
1. 841
1.848
1947
dollars *
$1. 420
1.502
1.505
1.537
1.601
1.644
1.500
1.509
1.749
1.775
1.768
1.747
1.787
1.741
1.742
1.736
1.758
» 1. 713
1.719
1. 713
Current
dollars
$0. 932
1.010
1.319
1.379
1.478
1.676
1.656
1.661
1.669
1.689
1.718
1.738
1.765
1.774
1.781
1.806
1.805
1.818
1.835
1.858
1947
dollars J
$1. 494
1.528
1.674
1.709
1.689
1.676
1.690
1.683
1.677
1.677
1.670
1.689
1.704
1.691
.680
.717
.722
,710
.713
,722
* Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
* Preliminary estimate.
AVERACJE WEEKLY EA.RN3INGS
1
Average weekly <Darnings rose ag ain m June refle cting b oth wage increo*>es and a slight y lengthened
workweek. Prelim inary data show that a shorter workwe ek kept manufaicturing earnings stable
n July.
>
DOLL.ARS PER WEEK
DOLL ARS
PER WEEK
MANUFACTURING
RETAIL TRADE
60
60
'
CURRENT DOLLARS
!•
CUR RENT
—-~*~
40
«*x*""
J.
/
1947 DOLLARS*
"
40
U.M
DOLLARS
„_
\
^-X»>»^
*
.
*~
/
1947 DOLLARS
20
0
1
1
I
!
1
1
1
1
!
!
1
i i i i i 1 i i i i i
. , , , . ! , , , , .
1947
1948
1946
0
1 1 1 I 1 1 1 t 1 1 1
t t i t i 1 i i i t i
1946
1947
BITU MINOUS COAL Ml NING
( I 1 I I 1 1 t 1 t 1
1948
PRIVATEI BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
100
100
80
80
CUR RENT DOLLARS
"'*'~^
f\
•N
^*—-^
^'"* 7
60
*
CUR RENT DOLLARS
\£*~
:
60
^^\
•- _-^~^^
1947 DOLLARS * *
40
40
20
20
0
KM
20
,,,,,!
1 1 1 1 1 1 I I 1 1 1
i i i t i 1 i t i i i
1947
1948
1946
* EARNINGS
SOURCE:
DATA DISTORTED
DURING THESE MONTHS
DEPARTMENT OF
BECAUSt " OF WORK STOPPAGES
0
OR VAC AT IONS.
X- *
_^
~^
- 5 ^ y/ ^
1947 DOLLARS* *
1 1 f 1 I 1 t I 1 1 1
1 1 1 t 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
i i i i i 1 i i i ii
1946
1947
1948
CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED 8 ' CONSUMER'S
PRICE INDEX 01V BASE OF 1947 = 100
c.OUNCIU
LABOR.
OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Selected industries]
Manuffi icturing
jrenoa
Bituminous coal mining
Retail trade
Private bu ilding construc tion *
TJA_J-. J
1939 monthly average..
1941 monthly average..
1944 monthly average..
1945 monthly average..
1946 monthly average..
1947 monthly average..
1947: May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April..
May 4
June 4
July
Current
dollars
$23. 86
29.58
46.08
44.39
43.74
49.25
48.44
49.33
48.98
49. 17
50.47
51.05
51.29
52.69
52.07
51.75
52.07
51. 79
51.86
52.95
52.96
1947 dollars »
$38. 24
44.75
58.48
55.01
49.99
49.25
49.43
49.98
49.23
48.83
49.05
49. 61
49.51
50.23
49. 12
49. 19
49. 69
48.72
48. 42
49.07
48.54
Current
dollars
$21. 17
21.94
26.58
28.31
32.55
36.67
36.50
37.82
37.99
38. 14
37.06
36.74
37. 14
37.51
37.62
38.33
38.89
39.27
39.84
40.52
1947 dollars*
$33. 93
33. 19
33.73
35.08
37.20
36.67
37.24
38.32
38. 18
37.87
36.02
35.70
35.85
35.76
35.49
36. 44
37. 11
36. 94
37.20
37.55
1
Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
* Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1947=100.
Source: Department of Labor.
Current
dollars
$23. 88
30.86
51.27
52.25
58.03
66. 86
65.51
67.09
54.87
70.23
71. 19
71.91
71.77
75.22
75.78
70.54
74.84
3 49. 53
74.09
74.53
1947 dollars *
$38. 27
46.69
65.06
64.75
66.32
66.86
66.85
67.97
55. 15
69.74
69. 18
69.88
69.28
71.71
71.49
67.05
71.41
3
46. 59
69. 18
69.07
Current
dollars
$30. 39
35.14
52. 18
53.73
56.24
63.30
62.38
62.68
63.30
66.97
65.22
66. 14
64. 55
67.31
66.28
66.31
66.89
67.31
68. 13
70.51
1947 dollars *
$48. 70
53. 16
66.22
66.58
64.27
63.30
63.65
63.51
63.62
66.50
63.38
64.28
62.31
64.17
62.53
63.03
63.83
63.32
63.61
65.35
* Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
Preliminary estimate.
4
25
FARM INCOME
Income of farmers in July rose 10 percent over June as the peak of wheat harvesting was
reached. Farm income in August is expected to be just below the July level,
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1939
40
41
42
43
44
M
45
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D J
F M A M J
1946
J A S O N O J F M A M J
J A S 0 N 0
1948
1947
* CASH RECEIPTS FROM MARKETING AND GOVERNMENT PAYMENTS.
** FARM INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE INDEX OF PRICES .PAID, INTEREST, AND TAXES ON THE BASE 1939'
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Period
1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average. .1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: June
July
August
September
October
November
December.
1948 : January
.
February
March
*
April
May
June4
July
1
2
8
4
.
_
__
_
._
Farm income
(millions of
current
dollars) »
Prices paid by
farmers (incl.
interest and
taxes) 1939=
100 3
723
761
981
100.0
100.8
106.5
121.0
130.6
136.3
138. 7
155.6
186.3
185.5
185.5
188.7
191.9
192.7
194. 4
197.6
202.4
200.0
199.2
200.8
201.6
202.4
202.4
1,340
1,678
1,753
1,857
2,110
2,543
2,211
2,662
2,517
3,060
3, 773
3, 109
2,927
2,581
1,866
2,001
2,096
2,103
2,413
2,655
Farm income
(millions of
1939 dollars)8
Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments.
Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1939=100.
Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1939= = 100.
Preliminary.
Source: Department!©! Agriculture.
723
755
921
1, 107
1,285
1,286
1,339
1,356
1,365
1,192
1,435
1,334
1,595
1,958
1,599
1,481
1,275
933
1,005
1,044
1,043
1,192
1,312
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
In 2nd quarter, durable purchases more than recovered from their 1st quarter drop; services and
nondurables continued up.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
200
200
ANNUAL
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
TOTALS
TOTAL
EXPENDITURES
150
150
100
100
NONDURABLE
GOODS:
50
50
1939
1944
1945
2
1
3
2
3
4
I
2"
1947
1946
3
4
1948
* PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
SOURCE:
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
[Billions of dollars]
Per sonal consump>tion expenditiires
Period
Nondurable
goods
Total
1939
1944
1945
1946
1947
„
-_
67.5
111.4
122. 8
147.4
164.8
35.3
67.5
75.4
87.5
96.5
Durable
goods
6.7
6.9
8.3
16.2
21.0
Services
25.5
37.0
39.2
43.6
47.3
An nual rates, se£isonally adjust ed
1947: First quarter.
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1
1948: First quarter
Second quarter »..J
_
_
+.
158.1
164. 2
165.6
171.1
92.5
96.3
96.8
100.2
19. 6
21.1
21.1
22.1
46.0
46.7
47.7
48.8
172.0
175.1
101.0
102.4
21.4
22.3
49.6
50.4
1
Revised.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
27
CONSUMER CREDIT
An increase in instalment credit in July was about offset by a drop in charge accounts.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
16
BJLLIONS OF DOLLARS
16
14
12
10
1929
1939
1941
J F
1943
END OF YEAR
M J J A S O N ' D J F M A M J J A S O N D J
M A M J J A S O N D
1947
1946
1948
END OF MONTH
*SINGLE PAYMENT LOANS AND SERVICE CREDIT
SOURCE: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve S y s t e m
Council of
[Billions of dollars]
Total
consumer
credit
outstanding
End of period
1929.
1939.
1941.
1943.
1945.
1946.
1947.
1947: June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April
May
June
July 3
28
7.6
8.0
9.9
5.3
6.6
_
_
10.2
13.4
11.2
11.3
11.5
11.7
12. 1
12.7
13.4
13. 1
13.0
13.4
13.6
13.8
14. 1
14.2
Instalment
credit 1
3.2
4.4
5.9
2.0
2.4
3.9
6.2
4.9
Charge
accounts
Other
consumer
credit 2
1.7
1.5
1.8
1.5
2.0
2.7
2.0
2.2
1.9
2.3
3.6
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.3
3.6
3.2
3. 1
3. 1
5.2
5.3
5.5
5.8
6.2
6.2
6.3
6.5
3.3
3.6
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
7.3
3.4
3.2
3.7
3.7
5. 1
6.7
7.0
7. 1
3. 1
3.3
3.3
3.6
3.6
1
Includes automobile and other sale credit and repair and modernization loans insured by Federal Housing Administration.
2
Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit.
3
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Economic Advisers
MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS
Commercial bank loans increased significantly from June to July. Government security holdings were
somewhat higher.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S
125
125
TOTAL (All commercial banks)
100
100
75
50
25
I
1929
1939
J
1945
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J* A
I
I
S
I
0
I
N
1
D
I
J
I
F
I
M
1
A
I
M
I
J
I
J
I
A
I
S
I
0
1
N
D
1948
END OF YEAR
END OF MONTH
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
SOURCE: Boord of Governors of the Federal R e s e r v e S y s t e m
C o u n c i l of Economic Advisers
[Billions of dollars]
Investments
Total
loans and
investments
Bank loans
49.5
40. 7
124.0
114.0
116.4
36.0
17.2
26. 1
31.1
38.1
13.5
23.4
97.9
82.9
78,3
16.3
90.6
74.8
69.3
8. 1
112.8
113.4
114.0
115.2
116.3
116.6
116.3
33.7
34.0
34.9
35.5
36.8
37.6
38. 1
79.1
79.4
79. 1
79.7
79.5
79.0
78.2
70.5
70.7
70.3
70.8
70.5
70.1
69.2
8. 7
8. 8
8.9
9.0
38.2
116.6
1948: January
38.7
115. 5
February
38.9
113,6
March .
38.8
114.3
ApriL
39.4
114.5
May .
39.7
113.7
June
40.0
114.6
July 1
1
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily adcfto totals because of rounding,
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
78.4
76.9
74.7
75.5
75. 1
74.0
74.7
69.4
67.9
65.5
66.3
65.9
64.8
65.3
End of period
1929
1939
1945
1946
1947
1947: June
July
August
September
October
November
December
—
-
-
Total
U. S.
Government
securities
4.8
Other
securities
8.7
7. 1
7.3
9.0
8.5
8.9
9.0
9.0
9.0
9.3
9.2
9.2
9.2
9.4
29
MONEY SUPPLY
Total money supply increased in July chiefly "as a result of a rise in private demand deposits.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
150
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
150
125
125
U.S. GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS
100
100
75
50
25
m
1929
1939
1941
1943
1946
END OF Y E A R
1946
1945
1948
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
END OF MONTH
Council of Econom'ic Advisers
SOURCE: Board of Governors of the Federal R e s e r v e S y s t e m
[Billions of dollars]
Total money
supply
End of period
1929.
1939..
1941.
1943.
1945.
1946.
1947.
1947: June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April
May
June
July 3
._
_.
..
..
__
_.
_
_
26.5
37.0
50.5
90. 1
126. 9
113. 1
115. 1
109. 8
110.6
111. 3
112.5
113.5
114.4
115. 1
113.7
112.0
109.6
110.9
111.0
110.8
111. 5
Currency
outside
banks
3.6
6.4
9.6
18.8
26.5
26.7
26.5
26.3
26.0
26.2
26.4
26.3
26.6
26.5
25.8
25.7
25.6
25.4
25.4
25.6
25.4
Adjusted
demand
deposits l
22.8
29.8
39.0
60.8
75.9
83.3
87. 1
82. 1
83.2
83.4
84.2
85 4
85. 9
87. 1
86.6
84.6
81.6
83.0
83.2
83.0
83. 7
U.S.
Government
deposits 3
0.2
.8
1.9
10.4
24.6
3.1
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.7
1.9
1.8
1.9
1.5
1.3
1.8
2.4
2.5
2.4
2.2
2.4
1
Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection.
2
Beginning December 1938, includes U. S. Treasurer's time deposits, open account.
* Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
30
FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND
PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC
The excess of Federal cash receipts over cash payments for the 1st half of 1948 was §7.6 billion. Preliminary
estimates for the last half of 1948 indicate a close balance.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
20
20
QUARTERLY TOTALS, NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL
15
15
10
10
I
I
I
2
2
3
1946
2*
3
3
1948
1947
SOURCE: TREASURY DEPARTMENT
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars]
Federal cash
receipts from
the public
Federal cash
payments to
the public
1946: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
14, 153
11, 089
10, 375
9,868
13, 648
13, 590
9, 104
8,907
+ 505
-2, 501
+ 1,271
+ 961
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
14, 962
11, 429
10, 468
10, 008
9,772
12, 197
10, 501
8,665
+ 5, 190
-768
15, 732
11, 390
9, 322
10, 159
+ 6,410
+ 1,231
Calendar year by quarters
1948: First quarter l
Second quarter
_
Excess of receipts (4-) or
payments (— )
-33
+ 1,343
1
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Treasury Department.
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Price 15 cents
31
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