Full text of Economic Indicators : October 2004
The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
108th Congress, 2d Session Economic Indicators OCTOBER 2004 (Includes data available as of November 5, 2004) Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 2004 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) ROBERT F. BENNETT, Utah, Chairman JIM SAXTON, New Jersey, Vice Chairman SENATE SAM BROWNBACK (Kansas) JEFF SESSIONS (Alabama) JOHN SUNUNU (New Hampshire) LAMAR ALEXANDER (Tennessee) SUSAN M. COLLINS (Maine) JACK REED (Rhode Island) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland) JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico) HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES PAUL RYAN (Wisconsin) JENNIFER DUNN (Washington) PHIL ENGLISH (Pennsylvania) RON PAUL (Texas) PETE STARK (California) CAROLYN B. MALONEY (New York) MELVIN L. WATT (North Carolina) BARON P. HILL (Indiana) JEFFREY L. SCHLAGENHAUF, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS N. GREGORY MANKIW, Chairman HARVEY S. ROSEN, Member KRISTIN J. FORBES, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—81ST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—1ST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled ‘‘Economic Indicators’’ Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled ‘‘Economic Indicators,’’ and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts prepared under the direction of the Printing and Procurement Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $3.00 a single copy ($3.75 foreign), or by subscription at $33.00 per year ($41.25 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 For sale by the U.S. Government Printing Office Superintendent of Documents, Mail Stop: SSOP, Washington, DC 20402–9328 ii TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT In the third quarter of 2004, according to advance estimates, current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) rose 5.1 percent (annual rate), real GDP (GDP in chained 2000 dollars) rose 3.7 percent, and the implicit price deflator rose 1.3 percent. [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1994 ...................... 1995 ...................... 1996 ...................... 1997 ...................... 1998 ...................... 1999 ...................... 2000 ...................... 2001 ...................... 2002 ...................... 2003 ...................... 2001: I ................ II ............... III ............. IV .............. 2002: I ................ II ............... III ............. IV .............. 2003: I ................ II ............... III ............. IV .............. 2004: I ................ II ............... III p ............ 1 GDP Exports and imports of goods and services Personal Gross Gross conprivate domestic sumption domestic product expendi- investtures ment Net exports Exports 7,072.2 7,397.7 7,816.9 8,304.3 8,747.0 9,268.4 9,817.0 10,128.0 10,487.0 11,004.0 10,021.5 10,128.9 10,135.1 10,226.3 10,338.2 10,445.7 10,546.5 10,617.5 10,744.6 10,884.0 11,116.7 11,270.9 11,472.6 11,657.5 11,803.5 ¥93.6 ¥91.4 ¥96.2 ¥101.6 ¥159.9 ¥260.5 ¥379.5 ¥367.0 ¥424.9 ¥498.1 ¥392.9 ¥361.7 ¥361.9 ¥351.6 ¥376.3 ¥415.4 ¥431.1 ¥476.6 ¥503.3 ¥497.6 ¥488.8 ¥502.8 ¥546.8 ¥591.3 ¥627.8 720.9 812.2 868.6 955.3 955.9 991.2 1,096.3 1,032.8 1,005.0 1,046.2 1,100.7 1,060.5 1,003.5 966.6 975.0 1,008.1 1,023.4 1,013.5 1,019.8 1,018.1 1,047.7 1,099.2 1,134.3 1,167.6 1,188.2 4,743.3 4,975.8 5,256.8 5,547.4 5,879.5 6,282.5 6,739.4 7,055.0 7,376.1 7,760.9 6,955.8 7,017.5 7,058.5 7,188.4 7,236.9 7,339.3 7,428.0 7,500.0 7,609.8 7,696.3 7,822.5 7,914.9 8,060.2 8,153.8 8,269.7 1,097.1 1,144.0 1,240.3 1,389.8 1,509.1 1,625.7 1,735.5 1,614.3 1,579.2 1,665.8 1,675.3 1,647.7 1,613.0 1,521.4 1,568.5 1,577.0 1,581.3 1,589.9 1,596.6 1,611.1 1,696.6 1,758.8 1,819.7 1,920.7 1,962.2 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Imports Total Total less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. 814.5 903.6 964.8 1,056.9 1,115.9 1,251.7 1,475.8 1,399.8 1,429.9 1,544.3 1,493.7 1,422.2 1,365.3 1,318.2 1,351.3 1,423.5 1,454.5 1,490.1 1,523.0 1,515.7 1,536.4 1,602.0 1,681.2 1,758.9 1,816.0 1,325.5 1,369.2 1,416.0 1,468.7 1,518.3 1,620.8 1,721.6 1,825.6 1,956.6 2,075.5 1,783.3 1,825.4 1,825.6 1,868.2 1,909.2 1,944.9 1,968.3 2,004.2 2,041.4 2,074.2 2,086.4 2,100.0 2,139.5 2,174.3 2,199.4 519.1 519.2 527.4 530.9 530.4 555.8 578.8 612.9 680.8 752.2 596.2 610.9 614.3 630.1 654.2 676.6 684.4 708.2 723.4 761.1 756.7 767.5 793.3 804.4 816.6 National defense 353.7 348.7 354.6 349.6 345.7 360.6 370.3 392.6 437.4 496.4 383.5 388.3 393.0 405.6 418.5 431.7 438.5 461.0 467.4 506.7 498.1 513.6 534.1 541.2 555.8 Nondefense 165.5 170.5 172.8 181.3 184.7 195.2 208.5 220.3 243.4 255.7 212.7 222.6 221.3 224.5 235.8 244.9 245.9 247.2 256.0 254.4 258.7 253.9 259.1 263.2 260.8 State and local 806.3 850.0 888.6 937.8 987.9 1,065.0 1,142.8 1,212.8 1,275.8 1,323.3 1,187.2 1,214.5 1,211.2 1,238.1 1,255.0 1,268.3 1,283.9 1,296.0 1,318.0 1,313.1 1,329.7 1,332.6 1,346.3 1,369.9 1,382.8 Final sales of domestic product Gross domestic purchases 1 Addendum: Gross national product 7,008.4 7,366.5 7,786.1 8,232.3 8,676.2 9,201.5 9,760.5 10,159.7 10,475.9 11,005.3 10,031.4 10,136.0 10,166.9 10,304.5 10,347.2 10,431.7 10,527.4 10,597.1 10,734.0 10,899.3 11,120.4 11,267.4 11,436.4 11,598.5 11,756.0 7,165.8 7,489.0 7,913.1 8,405.9 8,906.9 9,528.9 10,196.4 10,495.0 10,911.9 11,502.2 10,414.4 10,490.6 10,497.0 10,577.9 10,714.6 10,861.2 10,977.6 11,094.1 11,247.8 11,381.6 11,605.5 11,773.7 12,019.4 12,248.8 12,431.3 7,098.4 7,433.4 7,851.9 8,337.3 8,768.3 9,302.2 9,855.9 10,171.6 10,514.1 11,059.2 10,060.2 10,173.5 10,151.8 10,300.9 10,361.7 10,461.6 10,571.7 10,661.2 10,781.3 10,929.0 11,168.3 11,358.1 11,546.1 11,693.6 .............. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT [Billions of chained (2000) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross private domestic investment Period 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2001: ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... I .... II ... III IV .. 2002: I .... II ... III IV .. 2003: I .... II ... III IV .. 2004: I .... II ... III p Gross domestic product 7,835.5 8,031.7 8,328.9 8,703.5 9,066.9 9,470.3 9,817.0 9,890.7 10,074.8 10,381.3 9,875.6 9,905.9 9,871.1 9,910.0 9,993.5 10,052.6 10,117.3 10,135.9 10,184.4 10,287.4 10,472.8 10,580.7 10,697.5 10,784.7 10,883.4 Personal conNonresi- Resi- Change sumption dential dential in priexpendifixed fixed vate tures invest- invest- invenment ment tories 5,290.7 5,433.5 5,619.4 5,831.8 6,125.8 6,438.6 6,739.4 6,910.4 7,123.4 7,355.6 6,853.1 6,870.3 6,900.5 7,017.6 7,049.7 7,099.2 7,149.9 7,194.6 7,242.2 7,311.4 7,401.7 7,466.8 7,543.0 7,572.4 7,658.9 689.9 762.5 833.6 934.2 1,037.8 1,133.3 1,232.1 1,180.5 1,075.6 1,110.8 1,234.4 1,190.2 1,169.3 1,128.2 1,099.8 1,072.4 1,069.5 1,060.9 1,060.5 1,090.6 1,131.1 1,161.0 1,173.0 1,207.9 1,241.7 364.8 353.1 381.3 388.6 418.3 443.6 446.9 448.5 470.0 511.2 444.0 450.1 452.1 447.8 457.8 470.3 473.6 478.5 487.3 497.9 523.8 535.9 542.5 563.6 567.9 63.6 29.9 28.7 71.2 72.6 68.9 56.5 ¥31.7 11.7 ¥.8 ¥7.8 ¥2.5 ¥29.9 ¥86.7 ¥7.4 7.9 22.7 23.8 9.6 ¥17.6 ¥3.5 8.6 40.0 61.1 48.1 Exports and imports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total ¥79.4 ¥71.0 ¥79.6 ¥104.6 ¥203.7 ¥296.2 ¥379.5 ¥399.1 ¥472.1 ¥518.5 ¥398.2 ¥385.2 ¥398.4 ¥414.5 ¥444.9 ¥458.1 ¥469.8 ¥515.4 ¥511.7 ¥525.2 ¥508.7 ¥528.3 ¥550.1 ¥580.3 ¥598.0 706.5 778.2 843.4 943.7 966.5 1,008.2 1,096.3 1,036.7 1,012.3 1,031.8 1,097.2 1,060.6 1,008.7 980.3 991.6 1,017.8 1,025.5 1,014.5 1,010.6 1,006.5 1,033.8 1,076.2 1,095.4 1,114.8 1,128.8 785.9 849.1 923.0 1,048.3 1,170.3 1,304.4 1,475.8 1,435.8 1,484.4 1,550.3 1,495.4 1,445.8 1,407.1 1,394.9 1,436.5 1,475.9 1,495.3 1,529.8 1,522.3 1,531.7 1,542.5 1,604.5 1,645.5 1,695.1 1,726.8 1,541.3 1,549.7 1,564.9 1,594.0 1,624.4 1,686.9 1,721.6 1,780.3 1,857.9 1,909.4 1,749.6 1,783.0 1,776.1 1,812.7 1,833.5 1,853.4 1,863.1 1,881.6 1,882.5 1,915.3 1,916.0 1,923.7 1,935.8 1,946.5 1,953.1 1 GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2000) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Total National defense Nondefense 596.4 580.3 573.5 567.6 561.2 573.7 578.8 601.4 646.6 689.6 588.5 601.4 601.5 614.2 626.4 645.5 650.1 664.5 665.0 699.0 693.1 701.2 713.3 718.1 726.1 404.6 389.2 383.8 373.0 365.3 372.2 370.3 384.9 414.6 451.8 377.9 381.9 384.1 395.6 401.3 412.3 415.8 429.2 426.2 462.3 453.1 465.7 477.6 479.9 490.6 191.7 191.0 189.6 194.5 195.9 201.5 208.5 216.5 232.0 237.6 210.6 219.5 217.3 218.6 225.2 233.2 234.3 235.3 238.8 236.5 239.9 235.2 235.4 237.9 235.1 State and local 943.3 968.3 990.5 1,025.9 1,063.0 1,113.2 1,142.8 1,179.0 1,211.4 1,219.8 1,161.1 1,181.6 1,174.6 1,198.5 1,207.2 1,208.0 1,213.1 1,217.3 1,217.7 1,216.3 1,222.9 1,222.5 1,222.4 1,228.3 1,226.9 Final sales of domestic product Gross domestic purchases 1 Addendum: Gross national product 7,777.8 8,010.2 8,306.5 8,636.6 8,997.6 9,404.0 9,760.5 9,920.9 10,063.2 10,379.9 9,883.2 9,908.7 9,899.9 9,992.3 10,000.4 10,044.9 10,095.2 10,112.5 10,173.3 10,302.5 10,473.9 10,569.6 10,655.8 10,722.3 10,833.9 7,911.3 8,098.4 8,405.7 8,807.6 9,272.5 9,767.7 10,196.4 10,290.1 10,544.6 10,895.7 10,273.2 10,291.3 10,270.1 10,325.6 10,437.7 10,508.9 10,584.8 10,646.7 10,692.0 10,808.1 10,978.3 11,104.3 11,241.9 11,358.1 11,474.0 7,864.2 8,069.8 8,365.3 8,737.5 9,088.7 9,504.7 9,855.9 9,933.6 10,101.7 10,433.9 9,913.6 9,949.8 9,887.7 9,983.1 10,017.2 10,068.9 10,142.4 10,178.4 10,220.3 10,330.8 10,521.7 10,663.3 10,766.7 10,818.7 .............. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT [Index numbers, 2000=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Personal consumption expenditures Period 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2001: ................. ................. ................. ................. ................. ................. ................. ................. ................. ................. I ............ II ........... III ......... IV .......... 2002: I ............ II ........... III ......... IV .......... 2003: I ............ II ........... III ......... IV .......... 2004: I ............ II ........... III p ........ Gross domestic product 90.259 92.106 93.852 95.414 96.472 97.868 100.000 102.399 104.092 105.998 101.478 102.252 102.675 103.191 103.450 103.911 104.243 104.752 105.500 105.799 106.148 106.523 107.246 108.093 108.454 Total 89.654 91.576 93.547 95.124 95.979 97.575 100.000 102.094 103.547 105.510 101.499 102.143 102.289 102.434 102.656 103.382 103.890 104.245 105.076 105.265 105.685 106.000 106.856 107.679 107.976 Durable goods Nondurable goods 109.978 110.672 109.507 107.068 104.152 101.625 100.000 98.113 95.475 92.244 99.155 98.390 97.689 97.298 96.349 95.749 95.255 94.588 93.720 92.826 91.799 90.788 90.783 90.767 90.047 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2 89.605 90.629 92.566 93.835 93.821 96.174 100.000 101.531 102.097 104.153 101.257 102.123 101.898 100.855 100.861 102.190 102.517 102.810 104.104 103.516 104.418 104.560 105.909 107.611 107.861 Gross private domestic investment Services 85.748 88.320 90.844 93.304 95.318 97.393 100.000 103.256 106.084 109.237 102.145 102.994 103.509 104.365 104.957 105.686 106.518 107.146 108.153 108.988 109.525 110.263 111.080 111.663 112.241 Nonresidential fixed 106.008 106.239 105.011 103.696 101.421 100.057 100.000 99.683 98.913 98.547 99.607 99.744 99.817 99.561 99.238 98.957 98.643 98.801 98.668 98.354 98.431 98.728 98.792 99.220 99.474 Exports and imports of Government consumption expenditures goods and services and gross investment Federal Residential fixed 82.754 85.770 87.609 89.843 92.239 95.780 100.000 104.633 107.246 111.952 102.628 103.885 105.631 106.366 106.156 106.699 107.110 108.959 110.748 111.214 112.054 113.630 115.133 117.664 119.643 Exports Imports Total 102.034 104.376 102.987 101.233 98.905 98.313 100.000 99.625 99.275 101.396 100.322 99.988 99.482 98.597 98.325 99.050 99.795 99.903 100.911 101.149 101.343 102.133 103.550 104.732 105.261 103.634 106.411 104.529 100.816 95.354 95.960 100.000 97.497 96.326 99.615 99.885 98.365 97.034 94.504 94.068 96.450 97.272 97.401 100.051 98.956 99.607 99.840 102.165 103.763 105.166 87.037 89.479 91.957 93.533 94.512 96.883 100.000 101.908 105.288 109.082 101.306 101.582 102.135 102.579 104.433 104.804 105.268 106.585 108.795 108.887 109.180 109.449 111.205 112.022 112.457 National defense Nondefense State and local 87.412 89.598 92.379 93.716 94.643 96.886 100.000 102.002 105.489 109.876 101.488 101.673 102.306 102.515 104.286 104.698 105.445 107.413 109.676 109.608 109.917 110.283 111.830 112.795 113.287 86.309 89.282 91.146 93.192 94.269 96.880 100.000 101.738 104.932 107.632 100.981 101.419 101.834 102.696 104.695 104.991 104.944 105.088 107.191 107.577 107.839 107.919 110.097 110.616 110.934 85.480 87.785 89.717 91.414 92.935 95.667 100.000 102.868 105.318 108.485 102.243 102.785 103.117 103.311 103.961 104.997 105.834 106.466 108.235 107.958 108.736 109.007 110.130 111.523 112.707 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES: INDEXES AND PERCENT CHANGES [Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Percent change from preceding period 1 Index numbers, 2000=100 Real GDP (chain-type quantity index) Period 1994 ...................................................................................... 1995 ...................................................................................... 1996 ...................................................................................... 1997 ...................................................................................... 1998 ...................................................................................... 1999 ...................................................................................... 2000 ...................................................................................... 2001 ...................................................................................... 2002 ...................................................................................... 2003 ...................................................................................... 2000: I ................................................................................ II ............................................................................... III ............................................................................. IV .............................................................................. 2001: I ................................................................................ II ............................................................................... III ............................................................................. IV .............................................................................. 2002: I ................................................................................ II ............................................................................... III ............................................................................. IV .............................................................................. 2003: I ................................................................................ II ............................................................................... III ............................................................................. IV .............................................................................. 2004: I ................................................................................ II ............................................................................... III p ............................................................................ 1 Quarterly 79.816 81.814 84.842 88.658 92.359 96.469 100.000 100.751 102.626 105.749 98.764 100.315 100.200 100.721 100.597 100.906 100.551 100.948 101.798 102.400 103.059 103.249 103.743 104.792 106.681 107.780 108.969 109.858 110.863 GDP chain-type price index 90.265 92.115 93.859 95.415 96.475 97.868 100.000 102.402 104.097 106.003 99.292 99.780 100.241 100.687 101.507 102.290 102.690 103.122 103.470 103.853 104.280 104.786 105.490 105.780 106.158 106.586 107.314 108.169 108.510 percent changes are at annual rates. GDP implicit price deflator GDP (current dollars) 90.259 92.106 93.852 95.414 96.472 97.868 100.000 102.399 104.092 105.998 99.317 99.745 100.259 100.666 101.478 102.252 102.675 103.191 103.450 103.911 104.243 104.752 105.500 105.799 106.148 106.523 107.246 108.093 108.454 6.2 4.6 5.7 6.2 5.3 6.0 5.9 3.2 3.5 4.9 4.7 8.3 1.6 3.8 2.8 4.4 .2 3.6 4.5 4.2 3.9 2.7 4.9 5.3 8.8 5.7 7.4 6.6 5.1 Real GDP (chain-type quantity index) GDP chain-type price index 4.0 2.5 3.7 4.5 4.2 4.5 3.7 .8 1.9 3.0 1.0 6.4 ¥.5 2.1 ¥.5 1.2 ¥1.4 1.6 3.4 2.4 2.6 .7 1.9 4.1 7.4 4.2 4.5 3.3 3.7 GDP implicit price deflator 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.4 2.2 2.4 1.7 1.8 3.4 2.0 1.9 1.8 3.3 3.1 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.7 1.1 1.4 1.6 2.8 3.2 1.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.4 2.2 2.4 1.7 1.8 3.6 1.7 2.1 1.6 3.3 3.1 1.7 2.0 1.0 1.8 1.3 2.0 2.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 2.7 3.2 1.3 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS–GROSS VALUE ADDED AND PRICE, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Price per unit of real gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business (dollars) 1 2 Gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars)1 Unit nonlabor cost Period Current dollars 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2001: ........................................................ ........................................................ ........................................................ ........................................................ ........................................................ ........................................................ ........................................................ ........................................................ ........................................................ ........................................................ I ................................................... II ................................................. III ................................................ IV ................................................ 2002: I ................................................... II ................................................. III ................................................ IV ................................................ 2003: I ................................................... II ................................................. III ................................................ IV ................................................ 2004: I ................................................... II ................................................. Chained (2000) dollars 3,669.5 3,879.5 4,109.5 4,401.8 4,655.0 4,950.8 5,272.2 5,293.5 5,377.7 5,606.8 5,315.8 5,321.3 5,279.1 5,257.7 5,309.6 5,375.6 5,392.8 5,432.9 5,443.0 5,547.8 5,669.0 5,767.5 5,839.4 5,947.9 3,832.0 3,999.1 4,222.3 4,493.0 4,735.5 5,009.9 5,272.2 5,229.7 5,306.6 5,520.2 5,295.0 5,259.0 5,199.6 5,165.2 5,237.8 5,299.7 5,330.5 5,358.4 5,366.5 5,463.8 5,579.6 5,670.7 5,711.5 5,763.5 Total Compensation of employees (unit labor cost) 0.958 .970 .973 .980 .983 .988 1.000 1.012 1.013 1.016 1.004 1.012 1.015 1.018 1.014 1.014 1.012 1.014 1.014 1.015 1.016 1.017 1.022 1.032 1 Estimates for nonfinancial corporate business for 2000 and earlier periods are based on the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC); later estimates are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). 2 The implicit price deflator for gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business divided by 100. 0.621 .628 .623 .626 .643 .652 .672 .688 .679 .670 .683 .685 .690 .692 .682 .680 .677 .675 .676 .671 .666 .665 .668 .672 Total 0.227 .230 .225 .226 .226 .229 .237 .257 .256 .253 .248 .254 .260 .263 .259 .256 .254 .254 .257 .252 .252 .250 .249 .249 Consumption of fixed capital Taxes on production and imports 3 Net interest and miscellaneous payments 0.102 .104 .103 .104 .104 .105 .108 .124 .124 .123 .116 .121 .131 .126 .124 .123 .123 .124 .125 .123 .122 .121 .118 .118 0.099 .097 .096 .094 .092 .092 .093 .094 .098 .099 .094 .094 .089 .098 .098 .098 .098 .098 .100 .098 .099 .099 .100 .100 0.026 .029 .026 .028 .030 .032 .036 .039 .034 .031 .038 .039 .040 .039 .037 .035 .033 .032 .032 .031 .031 .030 .031 .031 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments 4 Total 0.109 .113 .124 .128 .114 .107 .090 .068 .079 .094 .073 .072 .066 .063 .074 .078 .079 .084 .082 .092 .098 .102 .106 .111 Taxes on corporate income 0.035 .035 .036 .036 .033 .034 .032 .021 .017 .024 .024 .024 .021 .016 .014 .016 .018 .019 .022 .022 .024 .026 .026 .029 Profits after tax 5 0.074 .078 .088 .092 .080 .073 .058 .047 .062 .070 .048 .048 .044 .047 .060 .062 .062 .065 .060 .070 .074 .076 .080 .083 3 Less subsidies plus business current transfer payments. profits from current production. inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4 Unit 5 With 3 NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Proprietors’ income 1 Period 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2001: ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ I ....... II ...... III .... IV ..... 2002: I ....... II ...... III .... IV ..... 2003: I ....... II ...... III .... IV ..... 2004: I ....... II ...... III p ... National income 6,122.3 6,453.9 6,840.1 7,292.2 7,752.8 8,236.7 8,795.2 8,979.8 9,225.4 9,679.6 8,987.6 9,001.5 8,890.3 9,039.9 9,136.5 9,222.3 9,241.6 9,301.3 9,407.7 9,568.8 9,771.1 9,971.1 10,128.1 10,251.4 .................. Compensation of employees Farm 3,997.2 4,193.3 4,390.5 4,661.7 5,019.4 5,357.1 5,782.7 5,942.1 6,069.5 6,289.0 5,946.2 5,944.6 5,939.3 5,938.3 6,010.2 6,068.3 6,086.0 6,113.4 6,179.1 6,245.6 6,324.7 6,406.7 6,489.4 6,568.0 6,641.9 Nonfarm 33.9 22.7 37.3 34.2 29.4 28.6 22.7 19.7 9.7 21.8 21.9 19.2 17.7 20.0 10.8 10.4 8.7 8.8 13.8 24.1 24.8 24.7 17.9 18.9 10.7 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment 439.4 469.5 505.9 541.8 598.4 649.7 705.7 752.2 759.9 812.3 747.5 751.5 755.7 754.1 751.4 758.6 761.7 767.9 780.2 801.6 827.2 840.0 854.2 882.5 892.5 119.7 122.1 131.5 128.8 137.5 147.3 150.3 167.4 170.9 153.8 155.3 161.7 176.4 176.2 179.7 184.7 165.4 153.8 155.5 144.1 148.8 167.1 172.8 172.6 150.8 Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total Total 600.3 696.7 786.2 868.5 801.6 851.3 817.9 767.3 874.6 1,021.1 778.7 783.1 714.5 793.0 838.2 868.4 876.2 915.4 912.0 986.2 1,057.1 1,129.1 1,165.6 1,173.9 ............ Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment 564.6 656.0 736.1 812.3 738.5 776.8 759.3 719.2 756.8 860.4 750.5 756.0 689.1 681.3 711.7 747.5 761.2 806.8 798.7 823.5 877.2 941.9 925.4 940.6 ............ 577.1 674.3 733.0 798.2 718.3 775.9 773.4 707.9 758.0 874.5 754.6 755.0 671.1 650.9 695.8 745.9 773.0 817.4 826.1 824.5 881.0 966.2 962.4 988.3 ............ ¥12.4 ¥18.3 3.1 14.1 20.2 1.0 ¥14.1 11.3 ¥1.2 ¥14.1 ¥4.1 1.1 18.0 30.4 15.9 1.6 ¥11.8 ¥10.6 ¥27.4 ¥1.0 ¥3.8 ¥24.3 ¥37.0 ¥47.8 .............. Capital consumption adjustment 35.7 40.7 50.1 56.2 63.1 74.5 58.6 48.1 117.8 160.8 28.2 27.1 25.4 111.7 126.6 121.0 115.0 108.6 113.3 162.7 179.9 187.2 240.2 233.3 224.7 Net interest and miscellaneous pay ments Taxes on production and imports 366.4 367.1 376.2 415.6 487.1 495.4 559.0 566.3 532.9 543.0 565.2 569.9 565.5 564.8 549.2 527.3 526.8 528.3 541.3 542.8 542.8 545.3 554.5 548.5 547.0 545.6 558.2 581.1 612.0 639.8 674.0 708.9 728.6 762.6 798.1 725.1 726.3 725.6 737.6 747.3 760.1 771.2 771.8 783.5 792.9 802.0 813.9 823.3 835.7 845.5 Less: Subsidies Busness current transfer payments Current surplus of government enterprises 32.2 34.0 34.3 32.9 35.4 44.2 44.3 55.3 38.2 46.7 52.3 58.4 67.3 43.1 38.9 36.8 38.4 38.7 42.8 55.2 44.5 44.4 40.4 39.4 39.0 43.3 46.9 53.1 49.9 64.7 67.4 87.1 92.8 80.9 77.7 98.3 104.8 65.7 102.5 89.6 81.3 78.0 74.6 74.8 76.9 78.9 80.1 82.7 83.5 78.2 8.6 11.4 12.7 12.6 10.3 10.1 5.3 ¥1.4 2.8 9.5 1.7 ¥1.1 ¥2.9 ¥3.4 ¥.9 ¥.1 6.0 6.0 10.3 9.8 9.3 8.7 8.1 7.4 6.5 1 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of chained (2000) dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Durable goods Period 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Total personal consumption expenditures Total durable goods Motor vehicles and parts Furniture and household equipment Nondurable goods Other Total nondurable goods Food Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil Services Fuel oil and coal Other Total services 1 Housing Medical care Retail sales of new passenger cars and light trucks (millions of units) ............... ............... ............... ............... ............... ............... ............... ............... ............... ............... 5,290.7 5,433.5 5,619.4 5,831.8 6,125.8 6,438.6 6,739.4 6,910.4 7,123.4 7,355.6 529.4 552.6 595.9 646.9 720.3 804.6 863.3 900.7 959.6 1,030.6 276.2 272.3 285.4 304.7 339.0 372.4 386.5 405.8 428.7 452.1 156.8 173.3 193.4 216.3 244.7 280.7 312.9 331.8 360.7 393.5 104.2 111.2 119.6 127.3 137.6 151.7 163.9 163.2 170.9 186.5 1,603.9 1,638.6 1,680.4 1,725.3 1,794.4 1,876.6 1,947.2 1,986.7 2,037.4 2,112.4 821.8 827.1 834.7 845.2 865.6 893.6 925.2 940.2 958.4 995.1 218.5 227.4 238.7 246.0 263.1 282.7 297.7 303.7 316.7 330.2 151.7 154.5 157.9 162.8 170.3 176.3 175.7 178.3 180.7 182.0 18.2 18.7 18.4 16.9 16.0 16.4 15.8 15.2 15.4 15.4 397.7 414.1 432.9 456.6 481.1 508.6 532.9 549.2 566.3 589.6 3,176.6 3,259.9 3,356.0 3,468.0 3,615.0 3,758.0 3,928.8 4,023.2 4,128.6 4,220.3 869.3 887.5 901.1 922.5 948.8 978.6 1,006.5 1,033.7 1,062.0 1,076.1 887.1 906.4 922.5 942.8 970.7 989.0 1,026.8 1,075.2 1,139.3 1,184.3 15.0 14.7 15.1 15.1 15.5 16.9 17.3 17.1 16.8 16.6 2001: I .......... II ......... III ....... IV ........ 2002: I .......... II ......... III ....... IV ........ 2003: I .......... II ......... III ....... IV ........ 2004: I .......... II ......... III p ...... 6,853.1 6,870.3 6,900.5 7,017.6 7,049.7 7,099.2 7,149.9 7,194.6 7,242.2 7,311.4 7,401.7 7,466.8 7,543.0 7,572.4 7,658.9 879.5 878.9 885.6 958.7 937.8 947.8 979.3 973.4 973.2 1,020.0 1,059.6 1,069.7 1,075.5 1,074.7 1,117.3 392.6 388.6 392.7 449.4 415.1 418.6 447.1 433.9 428.0 451.3 465.6 463.5 456.7 449.6 477.5 323.8 328.1 332.2 343.0 354.4 360.1 361.2 367.2 369.3 385.2 405.0 414.6 425.6 433.3 444.1 163.3 162.6 161.2 165.6 169.2 170.3 170.9 173.2 177.0 184.4 190.5 194.0 196.9 196.8 200.0 1,975.2 1,974.7 1,986.5 2,010.3 2,029.3 2,033.2 2,030.2 2,056.8 2,082.0 2,090.1 2,125.3 2,152.0 2,187.3 2,188.0 2,209.3 937.1 938.3 940.6 945.0 951.4 958.4 958.0 965.8 981.4 988.0 1,002.2 1,008.6 1,028.4 1,034.3 1,041.3 300.5 301.8 302.9 309.8 316.4 316.2 312.9 321.2 320.6 327.1 334.9 338.2 351.2 346.5 350.6 180.4 173.5 176.1 183.1 183.3 178.4 178.0 183.0 184.5 177.8 179.1 186.4 186.0 179.0 181.9 16.0 14.9 15.0 14.7 14.6 15.3 15.4 16.3 15.0 14.3 15.5 16.9 16.1 16.1 16.4 540.8 546.0 551.7 558.4 564.4 564.7 565.5 570.7 579.9 582.8 593.6 602.1 606.6 613.4 620.1 3,997.9 4,016.0 4,027.8 4,051.2 4,084.1 4,119.7 4,143.8 4,166.9 4,188.7 4,207.7 4,227.9 4,256.7 4,291.7 4,320.0 4,348.4 1,024.4 1,031.2 1,036.5 1,042.8 1,052.8 1,060.8 1,065.5 1,068.7 1,071.6 1,074.3 1,078.1 1,080.3 1,086.0 1,091.5 1,097.9 1,053.5 1,065.7 1,082.7 1,099.1 1,117.1 1,132.5 1,147.0 1,160.5 1,170.0 1,179.7 1,189.3 1,198.3 1,207.9 1,221.0 1,235.5 17.2 16.7 16.1 18.5 16.6 16.5 17.4 16.6 16.1 16.4 17.2 16.8 16.5 16.5 17.1 1 Includes other items, not shown separately. NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2000) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. 4 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $15.1 billion (annual rate) in September, following an increase of $25.3 billion in August. Wages and salaries rose $20.3 billion in September, following an increase of $16.9 billion in August. [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Compensation of employees, received Period 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2003: ................. ................. ................. ................. ................. ................. ................. ................. ................. ................. Sept ....... Oct ........ Nov ....... Dec ........ 2004: Jan ........ Feb ........ Mar ....... Apr ........ May ....... June ...... July r ...... Aug r ...... Sept p ..... 1 With 2 With Total personal income 5,842.5 6,152.3 6,520.6 6,915.1 7,423.0 7,802.4 8,429.7 8,724.1 8,878.9 9,161.8 9,243.7 9,276.6 9,337.9 9,375.3 9,404.1 9,445.9 9,484.9 9,542.3 9,592.1 9,615.7 9,632.9 9,658.2 9,673.3 Total 3,979.6 4,177.0 4,386.9 4,664.6 5,020.1 5,352.0 5,782.7 5,942.1 6,069.5 6,289.0 6,349.4 6,377.9 6,421.0 6,421.2 6,461.1 6,490.3 6,512.4 6,544.3 6,579.6 6,584.4 6,618.7 6,640.8 6,666.1 Wage and salary disbursements 3,232.1 3,419.3 3,619.6 3,877.6 4,183.4 4,466.3 4,829.2 4,942.8 4,976.3 5,103.6 5,145.3 5,167.1 5,202.4 5,197.3 5,221.4 5,241.3 5,254.8 5,282.6 5,312.5 5,313.6 5,342.7 5,359.6 5,379.9 inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. capital consumption adjustment. mainly of social insurance benefits to persons. Supplements to wages and salaries 747.5 757.7 767.3 787.0 836.7 885.7 953.4 999.3 1,093.2 1,185.5 1,204.2 1,210.8 1,218.6 1,223.9 1,239.8 1,249.0 1,257.6 1,261.7 1,267.1 1,270.7 1,276.0 1,281.1 1,286.2 Proprietors’ income 1 Farm 33.9 22.7 37.3 34.2 29.4 28.6 22.7 19.7 9.7 21.8 24.9 24.8 24.7 24.5 18.5 17.8 17.5 18.3 19.0 19.5 13.4 10.4 8.2 Nonfarm 439.4 469.5 505.9 541.8 598.4 649.7 705.7 752.2 759.9 812.3 833.1 835.6 838.8 845.7 844.3 852.2 866.0 875.3 882.2 889.9 891.8 893.6 892.1 Personal income receipts on assets Rental income of persons 2 119.7 122.1 131.5 128.8 137.5 147.3 150.3 167.4 170.9 153.8 152.8 158.9 166.5 175.7 174.1 172.6 171.8 172.0 172.8 172.9 170.3 154.9 127.2 Total 950.8 1,016.4 1,089.2 1,181.7 1,283.2 1,264.2 1,387.0 1,380.0 1,334.6 1,322.7 1,310.4 1,317.4 1,325.7 1,334.4 1,335.5 1,337.0 1,338.8 1,345.4 1,352.2 1,359.4 1,362.9 1,366.3 1,369.9 Personal interest income 716.8 763.2 793.0 848.7 933.2 928.6 1,011.0 1,011.0 946.7 929.9 918.6 925.0 932.1 939.0 937.6 936.2 934.8 938.2 941.7 945.1 945.1 945.0 945.0 Personal dividend income 234.0 253.2 296.2 333.0 349.9 335.6 376.1 369.0 387.9 392.8 391.8 392.4 393.5 395.3 397.9 400.8 404.0 407.1 410.6 414.3 417.8 421.3 424.9 Personal current transfer receipts 3 827.3 877.4 925.0 951.2 978.6 1,022.1 1,084.0 1,193.9 1,282.7 1,335.4 1,352.1 1,343.9 1,348.1 1,360.2 1,371.7 1,380.5 1,384.7 1,396.6 1,400.6 1,404.1 1,394.3 1,413.4 1,433.9 Less: Contributions for government social insurance 508.2 532.8 555.2 587.2 624.2 661.4 702.7 731.1 748.3 773.2 779.2 781.9 786.9 786.3 801.1 804.4 806.3 809.5 814.3 814.6 818.5 821.2 824.2 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 3 Consists 5 DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME According to advance estimates, per capita disposable personal income in chained (2000) dollars rose at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the third quarter of 2004. Period Personal income Less: Personal current taxes Equals: Disposable personal income Less: Personal outlays 1 Equals: Personal saving Disposable personal income in billions of chained (2000) dollars Per capita disposable personal income Current dollars Billions of dollars 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 5,842.5 6,152.3 6,520.6 6,915.1 7,423.0 7,802.4 8,429.7 8,724.1 8,878.9 9,161.8 690.7 744.1 832.1 926.3 1,027.0 1,107.5 1,235.7 1,237.3 1,051.2 1,001.9 5,151.8 5,408.2 5,688.5 5,988.8 6,395.9 6,695.0 7,194.0 7,486.8 7,827.7 8,159.9 Chained (2000) dollars Per capita personal consumption expenditures Current dollars Chained (2000) dollars Dollars 4,902.4 5,157.3 5,460.0 5,770.5 6,119.1 6,536.4 7,025.6 7,354.5 7,668.5 8,049.3 249.5 250.9 228.4 218.3 276.8 158.6 168.5 132.3 159.2 110.6 5,746.4 5,905.7 6,080.9 6,295.8 6,663.9 6,861.3 7,194.0 7,333.3 7,559.5 7,733.8 19,555 20,287 21,091 21,940 23,161 23,968 25,472 26,237 27,157 28,033 Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population, including Armed Forces overseas (thousands) 2 Percent 21,812 22,153 22,546 23,065 24,131 24,564 25,472 25,699 26,227 26,569 18,004 18,665 19,490 20,323 21,291 22,491 23,863 24,723 25,590 26,662 20,082 20,382 20,835 21,365 22,183 23,050 23,863 24,216 24,713 25,269 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.3 4.6 1.8 3.7 .9 2.1 1.3 4.8 4.6 4.0 3.6 4.3 2.4 2.3 1.8 2.0 1.4 263,455 266,588 269,714 272,958 276,154 279,328 282,425 285,358 288,240 291,085 25,620 25,450 26,082 25,641 26,249 26,363 26,178 26,120 26,175 26,389 26,842 26,865 26,967 27,067 27,090 24,469 24,627 24,704 25,091 25,202 25,498 25,738 25,919 26,239 26,476 26,840 27,088 27,524 27,781 28,103 24,108 24,110 24,151 24,495 24,550 24,664 24,774 24,864 24,972 25,152 25,397 25,555 25,758 25,800 26,027 0.3 ¥2.6 10.3 ¥6.6 9.8 1.7 ¥2.8 ¥.9 .8 3.3 7.0 .3 1.5 1.5 .3 1.9 1.2 3.4 .5 2.7 2.7 1.6 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.9 1.3 1.0 1.2 .4 284,265 284,952 285,726 286,490 287,156 287,840 288,605 289,360 290,016 290,689 291,445 292,190 292,838 293,505 294,262 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 2001: I ......... II ....... III ...... IV ...... 2002: I ......... II ....... III ...... IV ...... 2003: I ......... II ....... III ...... IV ...... 2004: I ......... II ....... III p .... 8,688.7 8,719.9 8,733.1 8,754.8 8,803.6 8,897.1 8,895.7 8,919.2 9,002.2 9,105.7 9,209.3 9,330.0 9,445.0 9,583.4 9,654.8 1,296.6 1,312.3 1,110.3 1,230.0 1,065.8 1,052.1 1,046.7 1,040.3 1,025.7 1,030.7 941.7 1,009.4 1,006.6 1,029.0 1,047.4 7,392.1 7,407.6 7,622.8 7,524.8 7,737.8 7,845.0 7,849.0 7,878.8 7,976.5 8,075.0 8,267.6 8,320.5 8,438.4 8,554.4 8,607.4 7,253.5 7,318.8 7,361.2 7,484.4 7,528.5 7,635.0 7,722.9 7,787.6 7,897.0 7,982.9 8,107.8 8,209.4 8,351.6 8,448.7 8,572.5 138.6 88.7 261.6 40.5 209.3 210.0 126.1 91.2 79.5 92.1 159.8 111.1 86.8 105.7 35.0 7,283.0 7,252.1 7,452.2 7,346.0 7,537.6 7,588.4 7,555.1 7,558.0 7,591.2 7,671.1 7,822.9 7,849.6 7,897.0 7,944.3 7,971.6 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, personal interest payments (nonmortgage), and personal current transfer payments. 6 26,004 25,996 26,679 26,266 26,946 27,255 27,196 27,228 27,504 27,779 28,368 28,476 28,816 29,146 29,251 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME According to the preliminary forecast issued in February 2004, gross farm income in 2004 is forecast at $255.1 billion, and net farm income at $47.6 billion. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from farming Gross farm income Period Cash marketing receipts Total 1 Total 1994 ................................ 1995 ................................ 1996 ................................ 1997 ................................ 1998 ................................ 1999 ................................ 2000 ................................ 2001 ................................ 2002 ................................ 2003 ................................ 2004 p* ............................. 2002: I .......................... II ......................... III ........................ IV ........................ 2003: I .......................... II ......................... III ........................ IV ........................ 2004: I p* ....................... II p* ...................... III p* ..................... IV p* ..................... 216.1 210.8 235.8 238.2 232.4 234.5 241.3 248.3 230.7 256.9 255.1 229.4 227.0 226.5 239.9 269.3 254.9 242.2 261.1 268.4 252.9 248.3 250.8 181.4 188.2 199.4 207.9 196.4 187.7 192.1 200.1 195.1 211.6 215.0 184.5 197.9 196.9 201.0 208.9 218.8 206.8 212.1 217.9 218.8 214.2 209.1 Livestock and products 88.3 87.2 92.9 96.5 94.2 95.7 99.6 106.7 93.8 105.5 100.7 89.5 92.4 96.2 97.2 106.6 108.1 106.5 100.7 100.0 101.8 102.4 98.6 1 Cash marketing receipts, Government payments, value of changes in inventories, other farm related cash income, and nonmoney income produced by farms including imputed rent of operator residences. 2 Crop receipts include proceeds received from commodities placed under Commodity Credit Corporation loans. 3 Physical changes in beginning and ending year inventories of crop and livestock commodities valued at weighted average market prices during the period. Crops 2 93.1 101.0 106.5 111.4 102.2 92.1 92.5 93.4 101.3 106.2 114.3 95.0 105.5 100.7 103.8 102.3 110.7 100.3 111.4 117.9 116.9 111.8 110.4 Value of inventory changes 3 8.3 ¥5.0 7.9 .6 ¥.6 ¥.2 1.6 1.1 ¥3.3 .8 2.0 ¥3.1 ¥3.4 ¥3.3 ¥3.4 .8 .8 .8 .8 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 Direct Government payments 4 7.9 7.3 7.3 7.5 12.4 21.5 22.9 20.7 11.0 15.9 10.3 21.6 4.1 4.7 13.5 31.4 5.9 6.8 19.7 20.2 3.8 4.4 12.7 Production expenses 164.8 171.2 177.9 186.9 185.9 187.4 193.4 197.7 193.4 197.6 207.5 182.9 196.2 195.2 199.3 195.1 204.3 193.1 198.1 210.3 211.2 206.8 201.8 Net farm income 51.3 39.6 57.9 51.3 46.5 47.1 47.9 50.6 37.3 59.2 47.6 46.5 30.7 31.2 40.6 74.1 50.6 49.1 63.1 58.0 41.7 41.5 48.9 4 Includes only Government payments made directly to farmers. *Annual and quarterly data for 2004 are forecast data available as of February 2004. Updated forecast data for 2004 are scheduled for release in November 2004. Source: Department of Agriculture. 7 CORPORATE PROFITS In the second quarter of 2004, according to current estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $25.9 billion (annual rate) and profits after tax rose $11.2 billion. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment 1 Profits after tax Domestic industries Period Profits before tax Nonfinancial Total 2 Total Financial Total 3 Manufacturing Utilities Wholesale Retail Taxes on corporate income Total Net dividends Undistributed profits Inventory valuation adjustment 564.6 656.0 736.1 812.3 738.5 487.6 563.2 634.2 701.4 635.5 119.9 162.2 172.6 193.0 165.9 367.7 401.0 461.6 508.4 469.6 147.0 173.7 188.8 209.0 173.5 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ 30.9 27.3 39.8 47.6 52.3 46.2 43.1 51.9 64.2 73.4 577.1 674.3 733.0 798.2 718.3 193.7 218.7 231.7 246.1 248.3 383.3 455.6 501.4 552.1 470.0 234.7 254.2 297.6 334.5 351.6 148.6 201.4 203.8 217.6 118.3 ¥12.4 ¥18.3 3.1 14.1 20.2 ........... .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 738.5 776.8 759.3 719.2 756.8 860.4 635.5 655.3 613.6 549.5 599.0 683.4 165.4 194.3 200.2 227.6 276.2 299.8 470.1 461.1 413.4 322.0 322.8 383.6 157.0 150.6 144.3 52.6 50.7 67.3 32.7 33.1 24.4 24.7 11.4 18.8 53.2 55.5 59.7 52.1 51.0 47.9 66.4 65.2 59.6 71.0 78.1 77.7 718.3 775.9 773.4 707.9 758.0 874.5 248.3 258.6 265.2 204.1 183.8 234.9 470.0 517.2 508.2 503.8 574.2 639.6 351.6 337.4 377.9 370.9 390.0 395.3 118.3 179.9 130.3 132.9 184.1 244.2 20.2 1.0 ¥14.1 11.3 ¥1.2 ¥14.1 2001: I ......... II ....... III ...... IV ...... 2002: I ......... II ....... III ...... IV ...... 2003: I ......... II ....... III ...... IV ...... 2004: I ......... II ....... III p .... 750.5 756.0 689.1 681.3 711.7 747.5 761.2 806.8 798.7 823.5 877.2 941.9 925.4 940.6 ............ 590.4 585.0 542.5 480.2 556.6 596.2 606.1 637.1 641.8 662.2 703.8 726.1 720.0 755.2 ............ 230.8 224.0 211.8 243.7 274.7 279.9 277.1 272.9 292.5 295.4 306.1 305.3 313.7 306.4 ............ 359.6 361.0 330.8 236.5 281.9 316.2 329.0 364.2 349.2 366.8 397.6 420.7 406.4 448.8 ............ 87.8 79.8 49.1 ¥6.3 33.0 46.4 57.5 65.6 54.8 54.1 66.8 93.4 81.5 94.8 ................ 27.2 29.3 26.1 16.2 8.2 10.8 12.9 13.5 17.1 15.3 18.6 24.3 23.2 21.5 ................ 46.7 47.8 53.8 60.2 51.3 57.0 46.5 49.3 43.1 45.1 53.1 50.1 46.0 52.2 .............. 66.7 66.3 72.3 78.6 76.3 79.8 78.7 77.7 74.7 82.6 78.9 74.7 80.0 73.1 .............. 754.6 755.0 671.1 650.9 695.8 745.9 773.0 817.4 826.1 824.5 881.0 966.2 962.4 988.3 ............ 222.5 217.9 197.6 178.6 168.9 183.5 188.3 194.7 224.0 224.6 238.7 252.3 256.5 271.2 ............ 532.1 537.1 473.6 472.4 526.9 562.4 584.8 622.7 602.1 600.0 642.3 713.9 705.9 717.1 .............. 379.2 370.1 366.0 368.4 378.7 389.2 395.3 396.9 396.0 394.7 394.1 396.4 403.4 413.2 424.0 152.9 167.0 107.5 104.0 148.2 173.2 189.4 225.7 206.1 205.3 248.1 317.5 302.5 303.9 .............. ¥4.1 1.1 18.0 30.4 15.9 1.6 ¥11.8 ¥10.6 ¥27.4 ¥1.0 ¥3.8 ¥24.3 ¥37.0 ¥47.8 ............ 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 4 1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. rest of the world, not shown separately. 3 Includes industries not shown separately. 2 Includes 8 4 Data by industry beginning 1998 are based on the 1997 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) and are not directly comparable with data for prior years shown, which are based on the 1987 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC). Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. REAL GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT In the third quarter of 2004, according to advance estimates, nonresidential fixed investment in chained (2000) dollars rose $33.8 billion (annual rate) and residential investment rose $4.3 billion. There was an increase of $48.1 billion in inventories following an increase of $61.1 billion in the second quarter. [Billions of chained (2000) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Fixed investment Period 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Gross private domestic investment Change in private inventories Nonresidential Total Total Equipment and software Residential Structures Total Nonfarm ................................................................................. ................................................................................. ................................................................................. ................................................................................. ................................................................................. ................................................................................. ................................................................................. ................................................................................. ................................................................................. ................................................................................. 1,099.6 1,134.0 1,234.3 1,387.7 1,524.1 1,642.6 1,735.5 1,598.4 1,560.7 1,628.8 1,042.3 1,109.6 1,209.2 1,320.6 1,455.0 1,576.3 1,679.0 1,629.4 1,548.9 1,627.3 689.9 762.5 833.6 934.2 1,037.8 1,133.3 1,232.1 1,180.5 1,075.6 1,110.8 232.3 247.1 261.1 280.1 294.5 293.2 313.2 306.1 251.6 237.4 467.2 523.1 578.7 658.3 745.6 840.2 918.9 874.2 826.5 879.2 364.8 353.1 381.3 388.6 418.3 443.6 446.9 448.5 470.0 511.2 63.6 29.9 28.7 71.2 72.6 68.9 56.5 ¥31.7 11.7 ¥.8 52.0 41.3 21.7 68.5 71.2 71.5 57.8 ¥31.8 13.5 ¥1.1 2001: I ............................................................................ II ........................................................................... III ......................................................................... IV .......................................................................... 2002: I ............................................................................ II ........................................................................... III ......................................................................... IV .......................................................................... 2003: I ............................................................................ II ........................................................................... III ......................................................................... IV .......................................................................... 1,670.3 1,637.4 1,592.6 1,493.4 1,552.5 1,553.7 1,569.2 1,567.3 1,564.0 1,577.6 1,659.4 1,714.1 1,678.2 1,640.5 1,621.9 1,577.0 1,559.6 1,545.9 1,546.6 1,543.5 1,552.7 1,593.4 1,660.6 1,702.7 1,234.4 1,190.2 1,169.3 1,128.2 1,099.8 1,072.4 1,069.5 1,060.9 1,060.5 1,090.6 1,131.1 1,161.0 313.8 310.6 315.1 284.9 270.7 253.9 243.0 238.9 230.7 238.7 237.9 242.4 920.8 879.2 852.9 843.8 830.1 820.6 829.8 825.5 834.6 856.7 899.7 925.6 444.0 450.1 452.1 447.8 457.8 470.3 473.6 478.5 487.3 497.9 523.8 535.9 ¥7.8 ¥2.5 ¥29.9 ¥86.7 ¥7.4 7.9 22.7 23.8 9.6 ¥17.6 ¥3.5 8.6 ¥13.5 ¥1.1 ¥31.1 ¥81.7 ¥11.9 16.1 24.6 25.3 9.6 ¥15.7 ¥2.7 4.6 2004: I ............................................................................ II ........................................................................... III p ........................................................................ 1,764.5 1,842.9 1,866.3 1,721.4 1,778.3 1,815.0 1,173.0 1,207.9 1,241.7 237.7 241.7 242.5 943.7 975.5 1,009.9 542.5 563.6 567.9 40.0 61.1 48.1 34.5 58.8 47.8 NOTE.—See p. 10 for further detail on fixed investment by type. Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2000) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9 REAL PRIVATE FIXED INVESTMENT BY TYPE [Billions of chained (2000) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nonresidential Residential Equipment and software Period Total fixed investment Structures Information processing equipment and software Total nonresidential Structures Total Computers and peripheral equipment 1 Software Total Transportation equipment Other equipment Total residential Total 2 Single family Other Industrial equipment Equipment 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2001: ........................... ........................... ........................... ........................... ........................... ........................... ........................... ........................... ........................... ........................... I ...................... II ..................... III ................... IV .................... 2002: I ...................... II ..................... III ................... IV .................... 2003: I ...................... II ..................... III ................... IV .................... 1,042.3 1,109.6 1,209.2 1,320.6 1,455.0 1,576.3 1,679.0 1,629.4 1,548.9 1,627.3 1,678.2 1,640.5 1,621.9 1,577.0 1,559.6 1,545.9 1,546.6 1,543.5 1,552.7 1,593.4 1,660.6 1,702.7 689.9 762.5 833.6 934.2 1,037.8 1,133.3 1,232.1 1,180.5 1,075.6 1,110.8 1,234.4 1,190.2 1,169.3 1,128.2 1,099.8 1,072.4 1,069.5 1,060.9 1,060.5 1,090.6 1,131.1 1,161.0 232.3 247.1 261.1 280.1 294.5 293.2 313.2 306.1 251.6 237.4 313.8 310.6 315.1 284.9 270.7 253.9 243.0 238.9 230.7 238.7 237.9 242.4 467.2 523.1 578.7 658.3 745.6 840.2 918.9 874.2 826.5 879.2 920.8 879.2 852.9 843.8 830.1 820.6 829.8 825.5 834.6 856.7 899.7 925.6 155.7 182.7 218.9 269.9 328.9 398.5 467.6 459.0 439.6 492.4 485.7 461.4 447.3 441.7 434.1 435.5 446.5 442.2 460.0 475.7 507.1 526.6 ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. 65.1 71.6 84.1 108.8 129.4 157.2 176.2 173.8 163.6 171.2 181.4 174.1 172.3 167.4 163.8 162.9 165.9 161.7 164.9 166.8 174.6 178.5 99.4 107.0 117.2 127.3 143.2 158.0 190.0 181.7 164.3 179.4 193.7 182.9 177.8 172.2 163.7 164.9 165.4 163.2 169.6 173.7 183.9 190.4 122.9 134.9 139.9 143.0 148.1 147.9 159.2 145.7 137.4 137.6 159.3 147.3 140.6 135.4 141.5 136.0 136.6 135.4 137.9 137.3 138.4 136.8 111.4 120.6 125.4 135.9 145.4 167.7 160.8 142.8 125.6 121.6 145.3 144.5 137.6 144.0 134.1 124.3 121.9 121.9 113.9 120.5 124.3 127.8 96.5 101.7 105.6 115.8 125.7 126.7 131.2 126.9 124.5 131.2 130.9 126.3 127.6 122.8 120.4 125.1 125.7 126.7 125.2 126.1 134.0 139.3 364.8 353.1 381.3 388.6 418.3 443.6 446.9 448.5 470.0 511.2 444.0 450.1 452.1 447.8 457.8 470.3 473.6 478.5 487.3 497.9 523.8 535.9 358.6 346.8 375.1 382.4 411.9 436.6 439.5 441.1 462.5 503.0 436.6 442.7 444.8 440.4 450.3 462.7 466.0 470.9 479.5 489.8 515.3 527.2 198.9 180.6 197.3 196.6 218.1 234.2 236.8 237.1 246.3 274.2 234.6 239.1 240.3 234.5 237.7 246.0 249.5 252.0 260.3 264.1 278.3 294.1 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.4 7.0 7.4 7.4 7.6 8.3 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.6 7.7 8.1 8.5 8.7 2004: I ...................... II ..................... III p .................. 1,721.4 1,778.3 1,815.0 1,173.0 1,207.9 1,241.7 237.7 241.7 242.5 943.7 975.5 1,009.9 547.0 565.4 571.5 ............. ............. ............. 185.6 189.5 191.4 200.2 206.2 207.5 139.0 139.7 149.2 122.7 130.0 138.0 142.1 147.5 155.9 542.5 563.6 567.9 533.6 554.6 558.7 299.3 305.7 309.0 9.0 9.1 9.2 1 For details on this component, see Survey of Current Business, Tables 5.3.6, 5.3.1 for growth rates, 5.3.2 for contributions, and 5.3.3 for quantity indexes. 2 Includes other items, not shown separately. NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2000) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. BUSINESS INVESTMENT [Billions of dollars] Capital expenditures By industry Period Total capital expenditures Total by industry Forestry, fishing Con- Manuand Min- Utili- strucfacagriing ties turtion culing tural services ProFor Real fesscomTransesional, Health panies portaFiWhole- Retail tion Infor- nance tate scien- care Other withand tific, and out sale and maand 1 and emtrade trade waretion insur- rental tech- social and assisployhousance leas- nical tance ees ing ing services For companies with employees 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 .............................. ............................. .............................. ............................. ............................. ............................. ............................. 807.1 .............. ........... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ .......... ............ .......... .......... .......... .......... ........... .......... .......... 871.8 .............. ........... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ .......... ............ .......... .......... .......... .......... ........... .......... .......... 970.9 896.5 0.9 40.4 36.0 26.9 203.6 29.2 57.3 51.3 96.5 118.2 85.2 22.3 47.1 81.7 74.4 1,047.0 974.6 1.7 30.6 42.8 23.1 196.4 32.4 64.1 57.3 122.8 130.1 100.6 29.5 51.3 91.8 72.3 1,161.0 1,089.9 1.5 42.5 61.3 25.0 214.8 33.6 69.8 59.9 160.2 133.7 92.5 34.1 52.2 108.9 71.2 1,109.0 1,052.3 1.5 51.3 82.8 24.8 192.8 30.0 66.9 57.8 144.8 131.1 82.7 30.5 52.9 102.5 56.7 1,008.5 928.0 1.9 42.3 67.1 25.4 163.3 27.9 59.4 47.8 88.9 125.7 96.7 26.6 59.1 96.0 80.4 1 Includes the following industries: Management of companies and enterprises; administrative and support and waste management; educational services; arts, entertainment, and recreation; accommodation and food services; and other services (except public administration). Also includes an item for structure and equipment expenditures serving multiple industry categories. 10 NOTE.—Data from Annual Capital Expenditures. Industry data are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS): 1997. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE In October, employment rose by 298,000 and unemployment rose by 69,000. [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Civilian employment Period 1994 2 .................... 1995 ...................... 1996 ...................... 1997 3 .................... 1998 3 .................... 1999 3 .................... 2000 3 .................... 2001 ..................... 2002 ...................... 2003 ...................... 2003: Oct ............ Nov ............ Dec ............ 2004: Jan 3 .......... Feb ............ Mar ........... Apr ............ May ........... June .......... July ........... Aug ........... Sept ........... Oct ............ Civilian noninstitutional population NSA Civilian labor force 196,814 198,584 200,591 203,133 205,220 207,753 212,577 215,092 217,570 221,168 222,039 222,279 222,509 222,161 222,357 222,550 222,757 222,967 223,196 223,422 223,677 223,941 224,192 131,056 132,304 133,943 136,297 137,673 139,368 142,583 143,734 144,863 146,510 146,892 147,187 146,878 146,863 146,471 146,650 146,741 146,974 147,279 147,856 147,704 147,483 147,850 Percent 1 Unemployment Total Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over Both sexes 16–19 years 123,060 124,900 126,708 129,558 131,463 133,488 136,891 136,933 136,485 137,736 138,095 138,533 138,479 138,566 138,301 138,298 138,576 138,772 139,031 139,660 139,681 139,480 139,778 63,294 64,085 64,897 66,284 67,135 67,761 69,634 69,776 69,734 70,415 70,726 70,964 71,099 71,329 70,969 71,128 71,118 71,162 71,570 71,847 71,870 71,677 71,882 53,606 54,396 55,311 56,613 57,278 58,555 60,067 60,417 60,420 61,402 61,524 61,597 61,521 61,260 61,456 61,373 61,571 61,721 61,629 61,918 61,870 61,925 61,998 6,161 6,419 6,500 6,661 7,051 7,172 7,189 6,740 6,332 5,919 5,846 5,972 5,859 5,977 5,875 5,797 5,888 5,888 5,832 5,896 5,941 5,877 5,898 1 Civilian labor force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population; and unemployment as percent of civilian labor force. 2 Data beginning January 1994 reflect a major redesign of the household survey questionnaire. 3 Not strictly comparable with earlier data. Total 7,996 7,404 7,236 6,739 6,210 5,880 5,692 6,801 8,378 8,774 8,797 8,653 8,398 8,297 8,170 8,352 8,164 8,203 8,248 8,196 8,022 8,003 8,072 Men 20 years and over 3,627 3,239 3,146 2,882 2,580 2,433 2,376 3,040 3,896 4,209 4,216 4,224 3,945 3,842 3,828 3,890 3,753 3,886 3,802 3,730 3,768 3,766 3,740 Women 20 years and over Both sexes 16–19 years 3,049 2,819 2,783 2,585 2,424 2,285 2,235 2,599 3,228 3,314 3,375 3,320 3,326 3,255 3,172 3,314 3,215 3,092 3,264 3,204 3,033 3,064 3,105 1,320 1,346 1,306 1,271 1,205 1,162 1,081 1,162 1,253 1,251 1,205 1,109 1,128 1,200 1,170 1,148 1,197 1,225 1,181 1,262 1,220 1,173 1,226 Not in labor force 65,758 66,280 66,647 66,837 67,547 68,385 69,994 71,359 72,707 74,658 75,147 75,093 75,631 75,298 75,886 75,900 76,016 75,993 75,916 75,565 75,973 76,458 76,342 Labor force participation rate Employment/ population ratio Unemployment rate 66.6 66.6 66.8 67.1 67.1 67.1 67.1 66.8 66.6 66.2 66.2 66.2 66.0 66.1 65.9 65.9 65.9 65.9 66.0 66.2 66.0 65.9 65.9 62.5 62.9 63.2 63.8 64.1 64.3 64.4 63.7 62.7 62.3 62.2 62.3 62.2 62.4 62.2 62.1 62.2 62.2 62.3 62.5 62.4 62.3 62.3 6.1 5.6 5.4 4.9 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.7 5.8 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 NOTE.—Beginning January 2004 data reflect revised population controls and are not strictly comparable with earlier data. See Employment and Earnings for details on breaks in series. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In October, the unemployment rate rose to 5.5 percent from 5.4 percent in September. [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) By race or ethnicity 1 By sex and age Period All civilian workers Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over Both sexes 16–19 years White By selected groups Black or African American Asian (NSA) Hispanic or Latino ethnicity Married men, spouse present Women who maintain families (NSA) Full-time workers Part-time workers 1994 2 ....................... 1995 ......................... 1996 ......................... 1997 ......................... 1998 ......................... 1999 ......................... 2000 ........................ 2001 ........................ 2002 ........................ 2003 ........................ 6.1 5.6 5.4 4.9 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.7 5.8 6.0 5.4 4.8 4.6 4.2 3.7 3.5 3.3 4.2 5.3 5.6 5.4 4.9 4.8 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.6 4.1 5.1 5.1 17.6 17.3 16.7 16.0 14.6 13.9 13.1 14.7 16.5 17.5 5.3 4.9 4.7 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.5 4.2 5.1 5.2 11.5 10.4 10.5 10.0 8.9 8.0 7.6 8.6 10.2 10.8 .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... 3.6 4.5 5.9 6.0 9.9 9.3 8.9 7.7 7.2 6.4 5.7 6.6 7.5 7.7 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.7 3.6 3.8 8.9 8.0 8.2 8.1 7.2 6.4 5.9 6.6 8.0 8.5 6.1 5.5 5.3 4.8 4.3 4.1 3.8 4.7 5.9 6.1 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.5 2003: Oct ............... Nov .............. Dec ............... 2004: Jan ............... Feb ............... Mar .............. Apr ............... May .............. June ............. July .............. Aug .............. Sept .............. Oct ............... 6.0 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.2 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.0 4.8 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.8 17.1 15.7 16.1 16.7 16.6 16.5 16.9 17.2 16.8 17.6 17.0 16.6 17.2 5.1 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.9 5.1 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 11.4 10.4 10.3 10.5 9.8 10.2 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.9 10.4 10.3 10.7 6.1 5.2 5.3 5.2 4.7 4.2 4.4 4.2 5.0 4.3 3.6 4.3 4.8 7.3 7.4 6.6 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.2 7.0 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.1 6.7 3.8 3.7 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 8.4 8.3 8.4 8.3 8.1 8.4 7.5 7.4 8.2 9.0 8.3 8.2 7.8 6.1 6.1 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.0 5.5 1 Beginning in 2003, persons who selected this race group only. Prior to 2003, persons who reported more than one race were included in the group they identified as the main race. Persons whose ethnicity is identified as Hispanic or Latino may be of any race. 2 See footnote 2, p. 11. 12 NOTE.—Data relate to persons age 16 years and over. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In October, the percentage of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks fell; the percentages for 5–14 weeks, for 15–26 weeks, and for 27 weeks and over rose. The mean duration of unemployment was unchanged at 19.6 weeks; the median duration was also unchanged, at 9.5 weeks. [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment (thousands) Percent distribution Less than 5 weeks 5–14 weeks 15–26 weeks Reason for unemployment: percent distribution State programs Number of weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Median Job losers 1 Job leavers Reentrants New entrants Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) 2 Weekly average, thousands 1994 3 ...................................... 1995 ........................................ 1996 ........................................ 1997 ........................................ 1998 ........................................ 1999 ........................................ 2000 ........................................ 2001 ........................................ 2002 ........................................ 2003 ........................................ 2003: Oct .............................. Nov .............................. Dec .............................. 2004: Jan .............................. Feb .............................. Mar ............................. Apr .............................. May .............................. June ............................ July ............................. Aug .............................. Sept ............................. Oct .............................. 7,996 7,404 7,236 6,739 6,210 5,880 5,692 6,801 8,378 8,774 8,797 8,653 8,398 8,297 8,170 8,352 8,164 8,203 8,248 8,196 8,022 8,003 8,072 34.1 36.5 36.4 37.7 42.2 43.7 44.9 42.0 34.5 31.7 31.1 30.3 31.0 31.2 30.3 31.1 34.3 33.2 33.0 34.4 32.4 34.9 34.0 30.1 31.6 31.6 31.7 31.4 31.2 31.9 32.3 30.8 29.8 29.4 29.5 28.9 28.6 29.6 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.5 30.3 31.4 28.2 28.3 15.5 14.6 14.6 14.8 12.3 12.8 11.8 14.0 16.3 16.4 16.6 16.7 17.8 17.5 17.2 16.0 14.4 15.8 16.0 14.8 15.4 15.1 15.5 20.3 17.3 17.4 15.8 14.1 12.3 11.4 11.8 18.3 22.1 22.9 23.5 22.3 22.7 22.9 23.9 22.1 21.9 21.6 20.4 20.7 21.8 22.2 1 Beginning January 1994, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs. 2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), and Federal (UCFE). Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Railroad (RR) program, Federal supplemental compensation or Emergency Unemployment Compensation programs. 3 See footnote 2, p. 11. 18.8 16.6 16.7 15.8 14.5 13.4 12.6 13.1 16.6 19.2 19.4 20.0 19.6 19.8 20.3 20.1 19.7 20.0 19.9 18.6 19.0 19.6 19.6 9.2 8.3 8.3 8.0 6.7 6.4 5.9 6.8 9.1 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.7 10.3 10.3 9.5 10.0 10.8 8.9 9.4 9.5 9.5 47.7 46.9 46.6 45.1 45.5 44.6 44.2 51.1 55.0 55.1 55.2 54.2 54.6 52.3 52.4 54.2 53.8 51.3 50.8 51.7 49.4 50.3 50.5 9.9 11.1 10.7 11.8 11.8 13.3 13.7 12.3 10.3 9.3 8.9 10.7 9.3 9.6 10.0 9.8 10.1 10.3 11.2 11.1 11.1 10.4 10.2 34.8 34.1 34.7 34.7 34.3 34.1 34.5 29.9 28.3 28.2 28.5 28.0 28.0 30.0 29.4 28.5 28.3 29.7 30.2 28.8 30.7 30.6 30.0 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.4 8.4 8.0 7.6 6.8 6.4 7.3 7.4 7.1 8.2 8.1 8.2 7.4 7.9 8.7 7.9 8.4 8.7 8.7 9.3 2,670 2,572 2,595 2,323 2,222 2,188 2,110 2,974 3,585 3,533 3,491 3,379 3,289 3,172 3,139 3,028 2,970 2,928 2,921 2,888 2,884 2,856 .............. 340 357 356 323 321 298 301 404 407 402 383 369 362 356 356 339 342 342 341 340 340 345 p 342 2,739 2,633 2,650 2,366 2,257 2,219 2,141 3,007 3,619 3,571 2,799 3,203 3,544 3,703 3,976 3,571 2,971 2,844 2,869 2,724 2,915 2,402 ................. NOTE.—Data relate to persons age 16 years and over (except for insured unemployment and initial claims). Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 337,000 in October. [Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 monthly data seasonally adjusted] Goods-producing industries Period Total nonagricultural employment Total 2 Construction Manufacturing Service-providing industries Total Trade, transportation, and utilities Total 3 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2003: ..................................... ..................................... ..................................... ..................................... ..................................... ..................................... ..................................... ..................................... ..................................... ..................................... Oct ............................ Nov ........................... Dec ........................... 2004: Jan ........................... Feb ........................... Mar ........................... Apr ........................... May ........................... June .......................... July .......................... Aug r .......................... Sept r ......................... Oct p .......................... 114,291 117,298 119,708 122,776 125,930 128,993 131,785 131,826 130,341 129,931 129,944 130,027 130,035 130,194 130,277 130,630 130,954 131,162 131,258 131,343 131,541 131,680 132,017 22,774 23,156 23,410 23,886 24,354 24,465 24,649 23,873 22,557 21,817 21,674 21,686 21,668 21,696 21,684 21,778 21,822 21,894 21,891 21,906 21,939 21,935 22,000 5,095 5,274 5,536 5,813 6,149 6,545 6,787 6,826 6,716 6,722 6,754 6,771 6,774 6,812 6,791 6,853 6,872 6,909 6,911 6,916 6,936 6,945 7,016 17,021 17,241 17,237 17,419 17,560 17,322 17,263 16,441 15,259 14,525 14,351 14,344 14,324 14,314 14,321 14,344 14,365 14,396 14,393 14,398 14,412 14,398 14,393 91,517 94,142 96,299 98,890 101,576 104,528 107,136 107,952 107,784 108,114 108,270 108,341 108,367 108,498 108,593 108,852 109,132 109,268 109,367 109,437 109,602 109,745 110,017 1 Data from the establishment survey. Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who received pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, unpaid family workers, and private household workers. Data from the household survey shown on p. 11 include those workers and also count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off. In the series shown here, persons who work at more than one job are counted each time they appear on a payroll, in contrast to the series shown on p. 11 where persons are counted only once—as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force. See Employment and Earnings for details. 14 Retail trade 23,128 23,834 24,239 24,700 25,186 25,771 26,225 25,983 25,497 25,275 25,272 25,261 25,211 25,312 25,331 25,415 25,448 25,477 25,497 25,499 25,516 25,530 25,566 13,491 13,897 14,143 14,389 14,609 14,970 15,280 15,239 15,025 14,912 14,948 14,922 14,876 14,945 14,963 15,013 15,037 15,048 15,055 15,038 15,049 15,043 15,064 Financial activities 6,867 6,827 6,969 7,178 7,462 7,648 7,687 7,807 7,847 7,974 7,990 7,985 7,981 7,981 7,989 8,003 8,015 8,029 8,049 8,044 8,053 8,077 8,094 Profes- Educasional tion Leisure and and and busihealth hospiness services tality services 12,174 12,844 13,462 14,335 15,147 15,957 16,666 16,476 15,976 15,997 16,070 16,114 16,159 16,172 16,196 16,237 16,363 16,432 16,457 16,490 16,518 16,562 16,659 12,807 13,289 13,683 14,087 14,446 14,798 15,109 15,645 16,199 16,577 16,678 16,705 16,731 16,746 16,764 16,813 16,854 16,871 16,897 16,901 16,965 16,984 17,046 10,100 10,501 10,777 11,018 11,232 11,543 11,862 12,036 11,986 12,125 12,147 12,178 12,192 12,218 12,229 12,271 12,303 12,331 12,339 12,344 12,341 12,351 12,364 Other services 4 Government Total 7,166 7,415 7,630 7,909 8,194 8,506 8,799 8,887 8,767 8,591 8,553 8,554 8,549 8,542 8,545 8,560 8,577 8,584 8,600 8,587 8,580 8,568 8,574 19,275 19,432 19,539 19,664 19,909 20,307 20,790 21,118 21,513 21,575 21,560 21,544 21,544 21,527 21,539 21,553 21,572 21,544 21,528 21,572 21,629 21,673 21,714 Federal 3,018 2,949 2,877 2,806 2,772 2,769 2,865 2,764 2,766 2,756 2,736 2,723 2,720 2,715 2,716 2,710 2,727 2,712 2,716 2,710 2,712 2,710 2,704 2 Includes natural resources and mining, not shown separately. 3 Includes wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, and utilities, not shown separately. 4 Other services and information. NOTE.—Data classified by industry based on the 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). For details see Employment and Earnings,June 2003. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Average weekly hours Average gross hourly earnings Manufacturing Period 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2003: ..................... ..................... .................... .................... ..................... ..................... .................... ..................... ..................... ..................... Sept .......... Oct ............ Nov ........... Dec ........... 2004: Jan ........... Feb ........... Mar ........... Apr ........... May ........... June .......... July ........... Aug r .......... Sept r ......... Oct p .......... Total private nonagricultural 1 34.5 34.3 34.3 34.5 34.5 34.3 34.3 34.0 33.9 33.7 33.6 33.7 33.8 33.6 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.7 33.8 33.6 33.8 33.7 33.8 33.8 Total 41.7 41.3 41.3 41.7 41.4 41.4 41.3 40.3 40.5 40.4 40.4 40.5 40.8 40.6 41.0 41.0 40.9 40.7 41.1 40.8 40.8 40.9 40.8 40.7 Average gross weekly earnings Total private nonagricultural 1 Overtime 5.0 4.7 4.8 5.1 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 Current dollars $11.32 11.64 12.03 12.49 13.00 13.47 14.00 14.53 14.95 15.35 15.41 15.43 15.46 15.45 15.49 15.52 15.55 15.59 15.63 15.66 15.71 15.76 15.78 15.83 1982 dollars 2 $7.53 7.53 7.57 7.68 7.89 8.00 8.03 8.11 8.24 8.27 8.25 8.28 8.32 8.30 8.27 8.27 8.24 8.25 8.21 8.20 8.23 8.26 8.25 .............. Total private nonagricultural 1 Manufacturing Current dollars $12.04 12.34 12.75 13.14 13.45 13.85 14.32 14.76 15.29 15.74 15.84 15.83 15.89 15.93 15.94 15.99 16.01 16.08 16.08 16.13 16.16 16.23 16.30 16.27 1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. 2 Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI–W) (on a 1982=100 base). Percent change from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural Current dollars 1982 dollars 2 Manufacturing Construction Retail trade $390.73 399.53 412.74 431.25 448.04 462.49 480.41 493.20 506.07 517.36 517.78 519.99 522.55 519.12 523.56 524.58 525.59 525.38 528.29 526.18 531.00 531.11 533.36 535.05 $259.97 258.43 259.58 265.22 271.87 274.64 275.62 275.38 278.83 278.75 277.33 278.96 281.09 278.80 279.68 279.48 278.53 277.98 277.61 275.63 278.30 278.21 278.95 .............. $502.12 509.26 526.55 548.22 557.12 573.17 590.65 595.19 618.75 636.07 639.94 641.12 648.31 646.76 653.54 655.59 654.81 654.46 660.89 658.10 659.33 663.81 665.04 662.19 $558.53 571.57 588.48 609.48 629.75 655.11 685.78 695.89 711.82 727.11 731.52 731.90 733.81 725.42 735.74 738.43 739.96 733.44 735.36 731.14 738.05 733.43 738.42 740.34 $265.77 272.56 282.76 295.97 310.34 321.63 333.38 346.16 360.81 367.28 368.95 369.26 369.87 368.06 370.45 370.18 369.29 368.71 370.24 369.05 370.87 373.31 374.53 374.53 Current dollars 3.3 2.3 3.3 4.5 3.9 3.2 3.9 2.7 2.6 2.2 1.5 1.9 2.2 1.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.5 2.4 1.8 2.6 2.6 3.0 2.9 1982 dollars 0.7 ¥.6 .4 2.2 2.5 1.0 .4 ¥.1 1.3 ¥.0 ¥.7 .0 .6 ¥.5 .2 .5 .4 .5 ¥.6 ¥1.3 ¥.3 .0 .6 .............. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY Index (June 1989 = 100) Percent change from 3 months earlier Period Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits 1 Total compensation Wages and salaries 12 months earlier Benefits 1 Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits 1 Not seasonally adjusted 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: 2003: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec .................................................................. ................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. 123.5 126.7 130.6 135.1 139.8 144.6 150.9 157.2 162.3 168.8 119.7 123.1 127.3 132.3 137.4 142.2 147.7 153.3 157.5 162.3 2001: Mar ................................................................. June ............................................................... Sept ................................................................ Dec ................................................................. 2002: Mar ................................................................. June ............................................................... Sept ................................................................ Dec ................................................................. 2003: Mar ................................................................. June ............................................................... Sept ................................................................ Dec ................................................................. 2004: Mar ................................................................. June ............................................................... Sept ................................................................ 152.7 154.2 155.7 157.4 158.8 160.5 161.5 162.8 165.0 166.4 168.2 169.5 171.3 173.0 174.5 149.4 150.8 152.0 153.5 154.8 156.2 156.9 157.7 159.3 160.3 161.7 162.5 163.5 164.4 165.8 133.0 135.9 138.6 141.8 145.2 150.2 158.6 166.7 174.6 185.8 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. 1.0 .9 .8 1.0 .8 .9 .4 .5 1.0 .6 .9 .5 .6 .6 .9 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.4 .8 1.4 1.1 1.4 2.1 1.4 1.5 1.4 2.6 1.7 1.0 Seasonally adjusted 1 Employer costs for employee benefits. NOTE.—The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries. 160.7 162.5 164.7 167.0 168.4 170.8 172.6 175.0 178.6 181.1 183.8 186.3 191.2 194.5 196.4 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 .9 1.1 .6 .8 1.4 .8 1.1 .8 1.1 1.0 .9 3.1 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.4 4.4 4.2 3.2 4.0 2.8 2.8 3.4 3.9 3.9 3.5 3.9 3.8 2.7 3.0 3.7 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.4 3.4 5.6 5.1 4.7 6.4 Not seasonally adjusted 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.2 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.2 3.8 3.5 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.6 3.2 2.7 3.0 2.6 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.6 5.0 4.8 4.9 5.1 4.8 5.1 4.8 4.7 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.4 7.0 7.3 6.8 Data exclude farm and household workers. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output per hour of all persons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Output 1 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Hours of all persons 2 Business sector Compensation per hour 3 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real compensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit labor costs Implicit price deflator 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 102.3 104.3 104.8 106.1 109.6 111.6 116.1 118.0 116.6 116.2 118.7 117.9 118.2 117.0 116.7 117.2 116.3 116.3 116.8 116.4 115.6 116.0 115.7 116.1 116.6 102.2 103.8 104.5 106.0 109.4 111.4 116.0 117.7 116.5 116.1 118.6 117.6 117.8 116.8 116.4 117.1 116.2 116.1 116.6 116.3 115.5 115.9 115.4 115.7 116.2 103.9 105.7 107.4 109.0 109.7 110.7 112.7 114.9 116.0 117.4 114.1 114.9 115.2 115.6 115.5 115.9 116.1 116.5 117.1 117.3 117.5 117.8 118.4 119.4 119.6 104.0 105.8 107.3 109.1 109.9 111.1 113.3 115.4 116.6 117.9 114.6 115.4 115.6 116.0 116.0 116.5 116.8 117.2 117.7 117.8 118.0 118.1 118.7 119.6 120.0 0.5 1.6 .7 1.4 3.2 1.8 4.2 1.5 ¥1.1 ¥.4 16.7 ¥6.0 9.1 ¥1.3 7.2 ¥3.1 .6 ¥3.3 ¥1.4 2.3 ¥2.9 ¥.3 1.6 ¥1.0 ¥2.7 1.2 ¥1.6 1.0 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.5 .6 .9 1.8 2.0 .9 1.3 3.4 1.8 1.3 1.4 2.7 3.0 1.0 1.3 ¥.3 1.4 .7 1.4 2.1 .8 .7 .8 2.1 3.3 .9 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.7 .7 1.1 1.9 1.9 1.0 1.1 3.3 1.8 1.4 1.3 2.6 2.7 .7 1.5 ¥.3 1.8 1.0 1.3 1.9 .5 .6 .3 2.0 2.9 1.6 Indexes, 1992=100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2001: ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ I ................... II ................. III ................ IV ................ 2002: I ................... II ................. III ................ IV ................ 2003: I ................... II ................. III ............... IV ................ 2004: I ................... II r ................ III p* ............ 101.5 101.6 104.6 106.5 109.4 112.6 115.9 118.8 123.9 129.5 117.0 118.4 118.8 120.9 122.7 123.2 124.7 125.0 126.2 128.6 131.2 132.0 133.3 134.2 135.0 101.5 102.0 104.8 106.5 109.3 112.3 115.5 118.3 123.5 129.0 116.5 118.1 118.5 120.4 122.4 122.8 124.1 124.6 125.8 127.8 130.6 131.7 132.8 134.1 134.7 108.2 111.4 116.5 122.7 128.6 135.2 140.5 141.0 143.5 149.0 141.1 141.4 140.3 141.0 142.2 142.9 144.3 144.7 145.5 147.5 150.8 152.3 154.3 155.8 157.4 108.3 111.8 116.8 122.8 128.9 135.6 140.8 141.3 143.9 149.4 141.4 141.9 140.8 141.2 142.6 143.2 144.5 145.0 145.9 147.8 151.1 152.8 155.0 156.5 158.1 106.7 109.6 111.4 115.1 117.6 120.1 121.3 118.7 115.8 115.1 120.7 119.4 118.1 116.6 115.9 116.0 115.7 115.7 115.3 114.7 114.9 115.4 115.8 116.1 116.6 106.6 109.5 111.5 115.4 117.9 120.7 121.9 119.4 116.5 115.8 121.4 120.2 118.9 117.3 116.5 116.7 116.4 116.4 116.0 115.6 115.7 116.1 116.7 116.7 117.4 103.8 106.0 109.6 113.1 119.9 125.6 134.5 140.1 144.5 150.5 138.8 139.7 140.4 141.5 143.2 144.4 145.0 145.5 147.4 149.6 151.7 153.2 154.2 155.9 157.3 103.8 105.9 109.5 112.9 119.6 125.1 134.0 139.3 143.8 149.7 138.1 138.9 139.6 140.7 142.6 143.8 144.3 144.7 146.6 148.7 150.9 152.5 153.3 155.2 156.5 99.2 98.9 99.6 100.6 105.1 107.9 111.8 113.3 115.0 117.1 113.0 112.8 113.2 114.2 115.2 115.2 115.0 114.8 115.3 116.8 117.7 118.7 118.4 118.3 118.9 99.1 98.8 99.5 100.4 104.9 107.5 111.4 112.7 114.5 116.5 112.5 112.2 112.5 113.5 114.7 114.7 114.4 114.3 114.7 116.1 117.1 118.2 117.7 117.8 118.3 Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2000: 2001: 2002: 2003: 2004: ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ I ................... II ................. III ................ IV ................ I ................... II ................. III ................ IV ................ I ................... II ................. III ................ IV ................ I ................... II ................. III ............... IV ................ I ................... II r ................ III p* ............ 1 Output 1.1 .2 2.9 1.9 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.5 4.3 4.5 ¥1.4 8.0 ¥.9 4.2 ¥.5 5.1 c 1.4 7.2 5.9 1.7 4.8 1.2 3.9 7.6 8.5 2.4 3.9 2.9 2.3 1.2 .5 2.7 1.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.5 4.4 4.4 ¥1.7 7.4 ¥.8 3.7 ¥.4 5.5 c 1.5 6.6 6.9 1.1 4.5 1.6 3.7 6.7 9.0 3.1 3.7 3.9 1.9 5.0 2.9 4.6 5.3 4.8 5.1 3.9 .3 1.8 3.8 .3 7.5 ¥.8 2.0 ¥1.1 .8 ¥3.1 1.8 3.5 2.1 3.8 1.2 2.2 5.6 9.3 4.2 5.3 3.9 4.2 4.8 3.2 4.5 5.2 5.0 5.2 3.8 .4 1.8 3.8 ¥.1 7.5 ¥.8 2.2 ¥1.1 1.2 ¥2.9 1.2 4.0 1.7 3.6 1.4 2.4 5.3 9.3 4.6 5.7 4.2 4.1 3.8 2.7 1.6 3.4 2.1 2.2 1.0 ¥2.1 ¥2.4 ¥.7 1.7 ¥.5 .1 ¥2.1 ¥.6 ¥4.1 c ¥4.4 ¥5.0 ¥2.3 .4 ¥1.0 .0 ¥1.6 ¥1.9 .7 1.7 1.3 1.0 1.9 3.6 2.7 1.8 3.5 2.2 2.3 1.0 ¥2.0 ¥2.5 ¥.6 1.6 .1 .0 ¥1.5 ¥.7 ¥4.1 ¥4.3 ¥5.1 ¥2.7 .6 ¥.9 ¥.2 ¥1.3 ¥1.4 .3 1.4 2.0 .3 2.1 refers to real gross domestic product originating in the sector. 2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers’ contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed. 4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI– U) for recent quarters. The trend from 1978–2003 is based on the consumer price index research series (CPI–U–RS). 5 Current dollar gross domestic output divided by the output index. 16 1.6 2.0 3.4 3.2 6.0 4.8 7.1 4.2 3.2 4.1 14.5 c 1.7 8.1 2.9 6.8 2.5 2.2 3.1 4.9 3.4 1.6 1.3 5.5 6.1 5.6 4.0 2.8 4.3 3.8 1.7 2.1 3.4 3.1 5.9 4.6 7.1 4.0 3.3 4.1 14.7 1.0 8.2 2.4 c 6.7 2.2 2.1 c 3.1 5.5 3.4 1.5 1.2 c 5.3 5.7 6.1 4.4 2.0 4.9 3.6 ¥0.5 ¥.4 .7 1.0 4.6 2.6 3.6 1.3 1.5 1.8 10.3 ¥1.6 4.2 .0 3.1 ¥.8 1.2 3.7 3.5 ¥.1 ¥.7 ¥.6 1.7 5.4 3.1 3.3 ¥.8 ¥.4 2.0 ¥0.4 ¥.3 .7 .9 4.5 2.5 3.6 1.1 1.6 1.7 10.5 ¥2.2 4.3 ¥.5 3.0 ¥1.0 1.1 3.7 4.1 ¥.1 ¥.8 ¥.6 1.5 5.0 3.6 3.6 ¥1.6 .2 1.7 0.4 1.9 .5 1.3 3.3 1.8 4.0 1.6 ¥1.1 ¥.4 16.0 ¥5.9 9.1 ¥1.2 7.4 ¥2.5 .8 ¥3.8 ¥1.0 1.7 ¥3.1 .0 1.6 ¥1.4 ¥2.6 1.6 ¥1.1 1.4 1.5 NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Data prior to 2004:II reflect corrections released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. For details see, Productivity and Costs, release dated October 13, 2004. * Data based on GDP data released on October 29, 2004. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose in September; capacity utilization was unchanged. [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Total industrial production 1 Percent Period 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Index, 1997=100 From preceding month Industry production indexes, 1997=100 change 2 From year earlier Capacity utilization rate (output as percent of capacity) 1 Manufacturing Total 1 Durable Nondurable Other (nonNAICS) 1 Mining Utilities Total industry Total manufacturing ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... 85.2 89.3 93.1 100.0 105.9 110.6 115.4 111.5 110.9 111.1 .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 5.4 4.8 4.3 7.4 5.9 4.4 4.4 ¥3.4 ¥.6 .2 83.6 88.0 92.1 100.0 106.8 112.1 117.4 112.7 111.8 112.2 75.4 81.9 89.0 100.0 110.7 119.9 129.5 123.5 122.9 125.3 94.6 96.2 96.5 100.0 101.5 102.2 102.8 99.8 99.2 97.0 92.8 92.9 92.1 100.0 106.5 109.9 112.2 105.6 102.0 105.8 96.6 96.4 98.1 100.0 98.2 94.0 96.3 96.8 93.0 93.1 93.9 97.2 100.0 100.0 102.5 105.5 108.6 108.1 111.3 110.9 83.4 83.6 82.4 83.6 83.0 82.4 82.6 77.4 75.6 74.8 82.6 82.7 81.1 82.6 82.0 81.4 81.1 75.4 73.9 73.4 2003: Sept ........... Oct ............. Nov ............ Dec ............ 111.5 111.8 112.9 113.1 0.6 .3 1.0 .2 .1 .7 1.5 2.3 112.7 112.9 114.2 114.2 127.1 127.2 128.8 129.3 96.6 96.7 97.6 97.4 104.7 105.8 106.6 105.4 93.5 93.7 93.6 93.5 109.9 111.0 111.9 114.2 74.9 75.0 75.7 75.8 73.6 73.6 74.4 74.4 2004: Jan ............ Feb ............ Mar ............ Apr ............. May ........... June r ......... July r .......... Aug r ........... Sept p .......... 113.8 114.8 114.7 115.3 116.2 115.9 116.7 116.5 116.7 .6 .8 ¥.1 .5 .8 ¥.3 .7 ¥.1 .1 2.4 2.8 3.5 4.7 5.6 5.3 5.3 5.1 4.6 114.5 115.8 116.3 117.1 117.9 117.7 118.8 119.0 118.7 130.1 132.0 132.4 133.0 133.8 133.8 135.4 135.7 135.7 97.2 97.6 98.2 98.9 99.6 99.4 100.0 99.7 99.2 105.8 109.1 109.6 111.4 113.6 112.0 113.3 115.8 115.2 93.6 93.2 92.8 93.1 92.7 92.0 93.3 92.6 90.4 118.2 117.9 113.4 112.9 116.0 114.5 112.6 110.0 115.9 76.2 76.7 76.6 76.8 77.4 77.0 77.4 77.2 77.2 74.5 75.3 75.5 75.9 76.3 76.0 76.6 76.6 76.3 1 Total industry and total manufacturing series include manufacturing as defined in the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) plus those industries—logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory-publishing—that have traditionally been included in manufacturing. 2 Percent changes based on unrounded indexes. NOTE.—Data based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) except series as defined in footnote 1. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1997=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Products and nonindustrial supplies Final products Consumer goods Equipment Durable goods Business equipment Period Total Total 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 ............................................................ ............................................................ ............................................................ ............................................................ ............................................................ ............................................................ ............................................................ ............................................................ ............................................................ ............................................................ Materials Nonindustrial supplies Nondurable goods Total 1 Defense and space equipment Total Construction supplies Business supplies Total 1 Energy 86.8 90.4 93.9 100.0 105.7 108.3 111.6 109.1 107.6 107.5 91.6 94.5 96.5 100.0 103.6 105.3 107.5 105.9 106.8 106.1 85.4 89.7 93.5 100.0 107.0 113.5 117.5 110.4 115.7 118.3 94.2 96.5 97.8 100.0 102.2 102.1 103.7 104.0 103.4 101.6 78.0 82.8 88.9 100.0 110.0 114.2 119.7 115.1 108.1 109.6 73.5 79.4 86.9 100.0 111.2 117.1 125.5 117.6 109.5 110.4 108.9 106.0 102.0 100.0 104.1 101.4 91.0 102.6 105.7 111.9 87.0 90.3 93.8 100.0 105.7 109.9 114.4 109.8 108.6 109.0 89.5 91.4 95.5 100.0 105.2 107.9 110.3 105.2 103.1 102.0 86.2 89.9 93.2 100.0 105.9 110.7 116.0 111.6 110.7 111.7 83.0 87.9 92.2 100.0 106.2 113.1 119.8 114.6 115.1 115.7 97.0 98.5 100.0 100.0 100.2 100.2 101.6 100.4 100.5 100.4 ................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. 107.8 107.7 108.9 109.1 106.1 106.0 107.1 107.3 120.8 119.8 121.3 121.2 100.9 101.0 102.1 102.3 110.6 110.3 111.8 112.0 111.2 110.8 112.7 113.2 113.7 113.7 113.3 112.4 108.7 109.6 110.4 110.8 102.3 103.1 104.4 104.1 111.3 112.1 112.8 113.4 116.4 116.9 117.9 118.2 100.4 100.9 100.9 101.4 2004: Jan .................................................. Feb .................................................. Mar ................................................. Apr ................................................... May ................................................. June r ............................................... July r ................................................ Aug r ................................................ Sept p ............................................... 109.8 110.8 110.7 111.0 111.9 111.4 112.5 112.4 112.7 108.1 108.8 108.5 108.6 109.2 108.3 108.6 108.9 109.2 122.7 123.8 122.9 123.1 122.0 119.8 120.6 122.3 121.9 102.9 103.5 103.4 103.4 104.6 104.1 104.2 104.1 104.6 112.7 114.4 114.6 115.6 117.2 117.7 121.1 119.9 120.3 114.4 116.2 116.2 117.3 119.1 119.8 123.4 122.0 122.3 111.7 113.2 114.4 115.0 116.3 115.9 118.9 119.0 119.7 111.3 112.1 112.2 113.8 114.9 114.9 115.4 115.1 115.5 104.1 104.3 105.1 106.0 106.9 106.4 107.1 107.4 107.1 114.1 115.3 115.1 116.9 118.1 118.3 118.7 118.1 118.9 118.9 119.8 119.7 120.2 121.2 120.9 121.4 121.2 121.1 102.6 102.2 100.9 101.0 102.1 100.5 100.8 99.3 99.5 2003: Sept Oct Nov Dec 1 Includes other items, not shown separately. [1997=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Durable manufactures Primary metal Period Total 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 ............................................................ ............................................................ ............................................................ ............................................................ ............................................................ ............................................................ ............................................................ ............................................................ ............................................................ ............................................................ Iron and steel products Nondurable manufactures Computer and electronic products Fabricated metal products Machinery Total Selected hightechnology 1 Transportation equipment Total Motor vehicles and parts Apparel Printing and support Chemical Food 92.6 93.7 95.9 100.0 102.3 101.7 98.5 89.0 86.5 84.6 93.3 94.8 97.1 100.0 100.3 99.9 99.0 87.7 89.5 89.9 87.0 92.3 95.8 100.0 103.0 103.8 107.9 100.1 97.4 94.4 85.5 91.5 94.9 100.0 102.6 100.4 105.8 93.8 86.8 86.7 44.2 57.5 73.8 100.0 129.1 169.0 224.0 226.1 234.7 266.5 33.2 47.3 66.7 100.0 140.2 201.3 286.7 291.1 311.4 368.5 89.9 90.1 91.7 100.0 108.8 114.5 109.5 105.9 108.0 108.7 89.4 92.0 92.7 100.0 105.2 116.4 116.2 105.6 114.5 117.5 104.1 104.1 101.3 100.0 94.6 90.7 87.3 77.9 70.8 62.3 95.9 97.3 98.0 100.0 101.0 101.9 102.3 96.9 93.7 89.3 91.3 92.7 94.6 100.0 101.8 103.8 105.5 103.9 105.3 105.5 96.8 99.3 97.4 100.0 104.3 105.2 106.8 106.9 107.1 106.2 ................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. 83.0 84.7 86.7 88.0 88.5 91.1 93.1 99.7 94.4 94.6 95.3 95.6 87.3 86.3 89.7 89.6 277.1 282.9 285.3 285.3 388.1 397.4 402.8 404.7 112.1 110.4 111.0 111.6 122.7 119.9 120.5 121.3 59.1 60.2 60.6 60.3 88.7 88.3 87.0 87.6 106.1 106.4 108.3 107.8 105.9 105.5 106.3 106.8 2004: Jan .................................................. Feb .................................................. Mar ................................................. Apr .................................................. May ................................................. June r ............................................... July r ................................................ Aug r ................................................ Sept p ............................................... 87.3 90.3 89.0 87.7 87.6 89.1 90.9 89.9 90.0 98.8 101.1 97.7 94.3 93.1 94.2 97.3 97.5 98.1 95.6 96.3 96.9 97.8 98.2 98.8 98.8 98.9 99.0 91.1 93.5 94.1 95.4 97.0 96.9 100.2 97.4 97.7 290.1 296.6 301.0 302.5 310.8 313.4 318.6 319.7 321.7 416.7 428.7 434.4 440.9 452.2 457.9 460.7 464.1 468.9 112.3 114.4 112.9 113.1 111.6 109.8 110.6 113.1 112.7 122.6 125.1 122.7 122.6 120.1 117.6 117.7 121.7 121.2 60.5 61.3 61.9 62.8 61.5 60.7 58.9 58.8 59.2 88.5 87.9 88.9 88.6 89.8 91.2 90.6 90.0 89.3 107.3 108.2 109.4 110.7 111.1 111.1 111.8 113.2 112.0 106.7 107.3 107.6 107.5 109.1 108.2 108.9 107.9 107.9 2003: Sept Oct Nov Dec 1 Computers and office equipment, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 18 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. NEW CONSTRUCTION [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Private Period 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2003: Total new construction expenditures Residential Total Total 1 Federal and State and local Nonresidential New housing Total Lodging Commercial (including farm) Office Manufacturing Other 2 .................................... .................................... .................................... .................................... .................................... .................................... .................................... .................................... .................................... .................................... Sept ......................... Oct ........................... Nov .......................... Dec .......................... 539.2 557.8 615.9 653.4 705.7 766.1 828.2 858.3 871.3 915.7 930.8 942.2 947.7 948.9 419.0 427.9 476.6 502.7 551.4 596.3 642.6 652.5 651.7 690.0 701.2 714.1 721.1 727.0 258.6 247.4 281.1 289.0 314.6 350.6 374.5 388.3 421.9 476.1 487.6 495.6 504.2 511.3 176.4 171.4 191.1 198.1 224.0 251.3 265.0 279.4 298.8 345.9 358.2 366.4 375.6 381.7 160.4 180.5 195.5 213.7 236.8 245.8 268.2 264.2 229.8 213.9 213.6 218.6 216.9 215.7 4.7 7.1 10.9 12.9 14.8 16.0 16.3 14.5 10.5 9.9 9.6 10.0 9.4 9.3 20.4 23.0 26.5 32.8 40.4 45.1 52.4 49.7 35.3 30.4 30.5 32.5 32.1 31.5 39.6 44.1 49.4 53.1 55.7 59.4 64.1 63.6 59.2 57.7 57.9 58.1 57.0 56.7 28.8 35.4 38.1 37.6 40.5 32.6 31.8 29.5 16.4 14.2 14.8 14.9 14.4 13.6 66.9 70.9 70.6 77.3 85.4 92.8 103.6 106.8 108.4 101.6 100.8 103.0 104.0 104.6 120.2 129.9 139.3 150.7 154.3 169.7 185.5 205.8 219.6 225.7 229.5 228.0 226.6 222.0 2004: Jan .......................... Feb .......................... Mar .......................... Apr .......................... May ......................... June ........................ July r ........................ Aug r ......................... Sept p ........................ 946.5 952.2 973.9 986.4 992.8 996.4 1,005.1 1,014.0 1,013.9 724.0 732.1 738.7 747.5 756.4 758.9 767.1 778.4 777.5 513.9 516.4 522.2 525.9 535.5 538.5 543.3 553.0 551.6 383.5 384.9 391.1 397.8 407.5 409.8 411.7 420.5 417.6 210.1 215.7 216.5 221.6 220.9 220.4 223.8 225.4 225.8 8.7 10.1 11.1 11.4 11.2 11.9 12.3 12.1 12.7 29.2 32.0 32.2 33.1 32.4 33.1 32.8 32.8 31.9 56.9 56.8 56.4 58.9 60.0 61.3 63.5 64.4 63.2 13.8 13.8 13.9 13.4 14.3 13.0 14.3 14.3 14.8 101.6 102.9 103.0 104.8 103.1 101.1 100.9 101.8 103.2 222.6 220.1 235.2 238.9 236.3 237.4 238.0 235.6 236.4 1 Includes residential improvements, not shown separately. 2 Includes health care, educational, communication, and power, among other categories not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or houses, except as noted] New private housing units Period Total 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 ...................................... ...................................... ...................................... ...................................... ...................................... ...................................... ...................................... ...................................... ...................................... ...................................... New private houses Units started, by type of structure 1,457.0 1,354.1 1,476.8 1,474.0 1,616.9 1,640.9 1,568.7 1,602.7 1,704.9 1,847.7 1 unit 1,198.4 1,076.2 1,160.9 1,133.7 1,271.4 1,302.4 1,230.9 1,273.3 1,358.6 1,499.0 2–4 units 1 5 units or more 35.2 33.8 45.3 44.5 42.6 31.9 38.7 36.6 38.5 33.5 223.5 244.1 270.8 295.8 302.9 306.6 299.1 292.8 307.9 315.2 Units authorized 1,371.6 1,332.5 1,425.6 1,441.1 1,612.3 1,663.5 1,592.3 1,636.7 1,747.7 1,889.2 Units completed Houses sold Houses for sale at end of period 2 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 3 1,346.9 1,312.6 1,412.9 1,400.5 1,474.2 1,604.9 1,573.7 1,570.8 1,648.4 1,678.7 670 667 757 804 886 880 877 908 973 1,086 336 370 322 281 294 308 298 308 339 370 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.0 8.4 8.9 9.8 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 2003: Sept ........................... Oct ............................. Nov ............................ Dec ............................ 1,922 1,983 2,054 2,067 1,537 1,644 1,670 1,657 45 29 37 29 340 310 347 381 1,943 2,015 1,920 1,979 1,697 1,731 1,709 1,736 1,127 1,141 1,086 1,120 350 360 365 370 9.9 ...................... ...................... 10.2 2004: Jan ............................ Feb ............................ Mar ............................ Apr ............................ May ........................... June .......................... July r .......................... Aug r ........................... Sept p ......................... 1,934 1,895 2,000 1,963 1,979 1,817 1,985 2,020 1,898 1,565 1,521 1,624 1,615 1,654 1,520 1,661 1,678 1,540 30 30 33 36 56 25 64 69 30 339 344 343 312 269 272 260 273 328 1,913 1,913 1,975 2,006 2,097 1,945 2,066 1,969 1,998 1,714 1,729 1,782 1,944 1,928 1,865 1,876 1,909 1,791 1,155 1,165 1,270 1,176 1,244 r 1,198 1,101 1,165 1,206 374 373 379 384 385 383 395 399 404 ...................... ...................... 10.4 ...................... ...................... 10.2 ...................... ...................... 10.1 1 Derived; seasonally adjusted monthly data for 2–4 housing units started are no longer published. 2 Seasonally adjusted. 3 Revised series. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. NOTE.—Units authorized are for 19,000 places. Beginning 1999, housing starts, completions, and sales are not directly comparable with earlier data due to new estimation methods. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade In August, according to preliminary estimates, manufacturing and trade sales rose 0.7 percent and inventories rose $9.3 billion. According to advance estimates, retail sales rose 1.5 percent in September. Retail and food services sales also rose 1.5 percent. [Millions of dollars, except ratios; seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Manufacturing and trade 1 Period Sales 2 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2003: ................................................................ ................................................................ ................................................................ ................................................................ ................................................................ ................................................................ ................................................................ ................................................................ ................................................................ ................................................................ Aug r ..................................................... Sept r .................................................... Oct ....................................................... Nov ...................................................... Dec ...................................................... 610,669 655,227 687,472 724,126 743,702 787,531 835,194 819,061 822,013 856,998 861,750 866,217 873,519 879,925 891,329 Inventories 3 930,681 989,067 1,008,623 1,049,527 1,081,988 1,142,277 1,200,666 1,146,151 1,163,690 1,185,477 1,166,882 1,173,444 1,177,496 1,181,735 1,185,477 Inventorysales ratio 4 1.47 1.48 1.46 1.42 1.44 1.41 1.41 1.44 1.40 1.37 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.34 1.33 Wholesale Sales 2 Inventories 3 161,133 176,227 186,649 194,541 198,319 211,631 228,630 225,123 228,524 240,442 239,756 241,527 246,430 247,737 251,526 218,119 234,268 237,186 254,763 267,689 284,396 301,618 287,913 288,990 295,435 288,848 291,248 292,549 293,534 295,435 Retail Inventory sales ratio 4 1.29 1.30 1.28 1.27 1.32 1.30 1.29 1.32 1.25 1.21 1.20 1.21 1.19 1.18 1.17 2004: Jan ...................................................... 894,394 1,187,402 1.33 253,664 296,016 1.17 Feb ...................................................... 902,285 1,197,124 1.33 259,109 299,712 1.16 Mar ...................................................... 931,224 1,205,977 1.30 266,509 301,311 1.13 Apr ...................................................... 930,732 1,214,579 1.30 269,017 301,989 1.12 May ...................................................... 938,211 1,222,744 1.30 269,823 306,229 1.13 June ..................................................... 940,345 1,236,066 1.31 270,235 309,744 1.15 r .................................................... July 948,939 1,248,260 1.32 272,479 314,354 1.15 p .................................................... r 955,282 Aug 1,257,537 1.32 275,812 317,211 1.15 Sept p .................................................... ................ .................. ................ ................ ................ ................ 1 See page 21 for manufacturing. data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. 3 Seasonally adjusted, end of period. 2 Annual 20 4 Annual Sales 2 Inventories 3 179,693 189,028 201,058 210,027 220,399 239,910 255,849 263,063 269,177 283,295 290,318 287,092 287,264 290,734 291,318 312,227 329,582 340,621 350,960 365,068 394,235 417,652 406,002 430,512 451,458 438,402 443,902 446,267 450,075 451,458 Inventory sales ratio 4 Retail and food services sales 2 1.66 1.72 1.67 1.64 1.62 1.59 1.59 1.58 1.56 1.56 1.51 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 198,496 208,496 221,299 231,530 243,119 263,733 281,385 289,667 296,965 313,057 320,843 316,937 318,064 321,798 322,342 292,253 451,357 1.54 295,019 454,614 1.54 301,790 460,087 1.52 299,146 465,891 1.56 303,683 466,569 1.54 301,306 472,012 1.57 304,355 475,225 1.56 r 303,933 478,351 1.57 308,612 ................ ................ 323,918 326,996 333,818 331,131 335,920 333,543 336,944 r 336,354 341,273 data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In September, manufacturers’ shipments and new orders fell; inventories and unfilled orders rose. Manufacturers’ shipments 1 Manufacturers’ inventories 2 Manufacturers’ new orders 1 Durable goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, nondefense Manufacturers’ unfilled orders 2 Manufacturers’ inventory— shipments ratio 3 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2003: .................................................... .................................................... .................................................... .................................................... .................................................... .................................................... .................................................... .................................................... .................................................... .................................................... Sept .......................................... Oct ........................................... Nov .......................................... Dec ........................................... 269,843 289,973 299,766 319,558 324,984 335,991 350,715 330,875 324,313 333,260 337,598 339,825 341,454 348,485 147,005 158,568 164,883 178,949 185,966 193,895 197,807 181,201 177,617 179,220 182,379 183,740 184,074 187,978 122,838 131,405 134,883 140,610 139,019 142,096 152,908 149,674 146,696 154,041 155,219 156,085 157,380 160,507 400,335 425,217 430,816 443,804 449,231 463,646 481,396 452,236 444,188 438,584 438,294 438,680 438,126 438,584 253,444 267,696 272,787 281,249 290,874 296,645 306,682 283,722 271,789 262,947 261,678 262,351 261,414 262,947 146,891 157,521 158,029 162,555 158,357 167,001 174,714 168,514 172,399 175,637 176,616 176,329 176,712 175,637 266,641 285,542 297,282 314,986 317,345 329,770 346,789 322,944 316,744 329,167 333,957 341,856 338,726 344,868 143,803 154,137 162,399 174,377 178,327 187,674 193,881 173,270 170,048 175,126 178,738 185,771 181,346 184,361 45,175 51,011 54,066 60,697 62,133 64,392 69,278 58,336 53,991 57,445 60,225 61,672 57,862 60,219 434,594 447,338 488,815 513,166 496,471 505,941 550,005 517,590 485,816 506,298 492,006 500,307 503,869 506,298 1.44 1.44 1.43 1.37 1.39 1.35 1.35 1.42 1.37 1.33 1.30 1.29 1.28 1.26 2004: Jan ........................................... Feb ........................................... Mar .......................................... Apr ........................................... May .......................................... June ......................................... July .......................................... Aug r ......................................... Sept p ........................................ 348,477 348,157 362,925 362,569 364,705 368,804 372,105 375,537 371,302 186,115 188,798 197,139 195,512 194,389 196,708 197,698 201,398 198,923 162,362 159,359 165,786 167,057 170,316 172,096 174,407 174,139 172,379 440,029 442,798 444,579 446,699 449,946 454,310 458,681 461,975 463,262 263,276 264,550 265,607 267,206 269,308 271,849 274,834 277,119 278,186 176,753 178,248 178,972 179,493 180,638 182,461 183,847 184,856 185,076 341,868 345,778 363,146 359,124 360,561 364,818 370,838 369,574 368,254 179,506 186,419 197,360 192,067 190,245 192,722 196,431 195,435 195,875 58,564 60,967 64,726 63,908 62,996 63,934 69,879 65,015 65,512 506,184 510,535 517,585 521,211 524,365 527,537 533,792 535,310 539,342 1.26 1.27 1.22 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.25 1 Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. Shipments are the same as sales. 2 Seasonally adjusted, end of period. 3 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. NOTE.—Manufacturers’ nondurable new orders (not shown) are the same as nondurable shipments. Also, there are no unfilled nondurable orders; data shown for total unfilled orders are durable unfilled orders. Total and durable shipments and inventories include data on semiconductors; new and unfilled orders do not. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES The producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.1 percent in September. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 0.1 percent, while prices of other finished consumer goods were unchanged. Capital equipment prices rose 0.4 percent. [1982=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Finished goods Period Total finished goods Finished goods excluding consumer foods Consumer foods Consumer goods Total Total 1994 ........................... 1995 ........................... 1996 ........................... 1997 ........................... 1998 ........................... 1999 .......................... 2000 ........................... 2001 ........................... 2002 .......................... 2003 .......................... 2003: Sept ............... Oct ................. Nov ................ Dec ................ 2004: Jan ................ Feb ................ Mar ................ Apr ................ May r .............. June ............... July ................ Aug ................. Sept ................ 1 Intermediate 22 125.5 127.9 131.3 131.8 130.7 133.0 138.0 140.7 138.9 143.3 143.8 144.7 144.5 144.8 145.7 145.8 146.7 147.7 148.6 148.4 148.5 148.4 148.5 Intermediate materials 126.8 129.0 133.6 134.5 134.3 135.1 137.2 141.3 140.1 145.9 147.5 150.5 150.1 150.4 148.4 149.0 151.2 153.1 155.4 154.3 151.8 151.5 151.6 125.1 127.5 130.5 130.9 129.5 132.3 138.1 140.4 138.3 142.4 142.6 143.0 142.8 143.1 144.8 144.8 145.3 146.0 146.7 146.6 147.4 147.3 147.4 materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 121.6 124.0 127.6 128.2 126.4 130.5 138.4 141.4 138.8 144.7 145.0 145.4 145.0 145.6 148.0 148.1 148.6 149.6 150.4 150.0 151.1 151.0 151.0 Durable 130.9 132.7 134.2 133.7 132.9 133.0 133.9 134.0 133.0 133.1 132.8 133.9 134.0 133.5 133.8 133.7 134.5 134.2 135.1 135.8 135.8 134.9 135.5 Nondurable 116.2 118.8 123.3 124.3 122.2 127.9 138.7 142.8 139.8 148.4 149.0 149.0 148.5 149.5 152.9 153.1 153.5 155.1 155.8 154.8 156.5 156.8 156.4 Capital equipment 134.1 136.7 138.3 138.2 137.6 137.6 138.8 139.7 139.1 139.5 139.6 140.0 140.1 139.9 140.2 139.9 140.4 140.5 140.9 141.6 141.7 141.6 142.1 Total finished consumer goods 123.3 125.6 129.5 130.2 128.9 132.0 138.2 141.5 139.4 145.3 146.0 147.1 146.7 147.2 148.4 148.6 149.6 150.9 152.1 151.4 151.6 151.4 151.4 Crude materials Total Foods and feeds 1 Other Total Foodstuffs and feedstuffs Other 118.5 124.9 125.7 125.6 123.0 123.2 129.2 129.7 127.8 133.7 134.0 134.4 134.4 134.9 136.1 137.4 138.5 140.4 141.8 142.4 143.5 144.9 145.1 114.8 114.8 128.1 125.4 116.2 111.1 111.7 115.9 115.5 125.9 127.8 131.3 134.7 134.3 132.5 134.2 137.5 143.9 148.0 144.8 142.8 135.4 133.1 118.7 125.5 125.6 125.7 123.4 123.9 130.1 130.5 128.5 134.2 134.4 134.6 134.5 135.0 136.4 137.6 138.6 140.4 141.7 142.4 143.7 145.5 145.8 101.8 102.7 113.8 111.1 96.8 98.2 120.6 121.0 108.1 135.3 134.1 137.9 137.9 142.6 148.4 150.7 153.1 155.9 160.9 161.3 161.0 159.8 153.1 106.5 105.8 121.5 112.2 103.9 98.7 100.2 106.1 99.5 113.5 117.7 127.7 126.9 127.3 118.7 123.8 132.3 136.6 139.5 135.4 128.9 123.0 120.4 94.8 96.8 104.5 106.4 88.4 94.3 130.4 126.8 111.4 148.2 142.8 141.4 142.1 150.1 167.1 167.1 164.6 166.2 172.6 176.5 181.3 183.7 174.0 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In September, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.2 percent both seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted. The index was 2.5 percent above its year-earlier level. [1982–84=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] All items 1 Housing Transportation Shelter Period Not season- Seasonally ally adjust- adjusted ed (NSA) Food Total 1 Rent of primary residence Total 1 Owners’ equivalent rent (12/82= 100) Fuels and utilities Apparel Total 1 New cars Motor fuel Medical care Energy 2 All items less food and energy Rel. imp.3 ......................... 1994 ................................. 1995 ................................. 1996 ................................. 1997 ................................. 1998 ................................. 1999 ................................. 2000 ................................. 2001 ................................. 2002 ................................. 2003 ................................. 100.0 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.2 177.1 179.9 184.0 ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. 14.4 144.3 148.4 153.3 157.3 160.7 164.1 167.8 173.1 176.2 180.0 42.1 144.8 148.5 152.8 156.8 160.4 163.9 169.6 176.4 180.3 184.8 32.9 160.5 165.7 171.0 176.3 182.1 187.3 193.4 200.6 208.1 213.1 6.2 154.0 157.8 162.0 166.7 172.1 177.5 183.9 192.1 199.7 205.5 23.4 165.8 171.3 176.8 181.9 187.8 192.9 198.7 206.3 214.7 219.9 4.7 122.8 123.7 127.5 130.8 128.5 128.8 137.9 150.2 143.6 154.5 4.0 133.4 132.0 131.7 132.9 133.0 131.3 129.6 127.3 124.0 120.9 16.9 ............ 134.3 136.0 139.1 139.0 143.0 141.4 144.3 141.7 141.6 140.7 144.4 139.6 153.3 139.6 154.3 138.9 152.9 137.3 157.6 134.7 3.2 98.5 100.0 106.3 106.2 92.2 100.7 129.3 124.7 116.6 135.8 6.1 211.0 220.5 228.2 234.6 242.1 250.6 260.8 272.8 285.6 297.1 7.1 104.6 105.2 110.1 111.5 102.9 106.6 124.6 129.3 121.7 136.5 78.5 156.5 161.2 165.6 169.5 173.4 177.0 181.3 186.1 190.5 193.2 2003: Sept ..................... Oct ....................... Nov ...................... Dec ...................... 185.2 185.0 184.5 184.3 185.1 184.9 184.6 184.9 180.9 181.8 182.6 183.5 185.5 185.8 185.7 186.1 214.0 214.7 214.9 215.3 206.7 207.0 207.4 207.8 220.8 221.3 221.6 221.9 156.5 155.4 154.3 155.0 120.9 121.2 120.6 120.2 159.9 157.7 155.6 155.3 134.2 134.1 133.9 133.8 146.9 137.9 130.9 130.9 299.6 300.3 301.3 302.7 142.8 137.8 133.7 134.1 193.7 194.0 194.0 194.1 2004: Jan ....................... Feb ....................... Mar ...................... Apr ....................... May ...................... June ..................... July ...................... Aug ....................... Sept ...................... 185.2 186.2 187.4 188.0 189.1 189.7 189.4 189.5 189.9 185.8 186.3 187.2 187.6 188.8 189.4 189.3 189.4 189.7 183.5 183.8 184.1 184.4 186.1 186.4 186.9 187.0 187.0 186.8 187.1 187.7 188.4 189.1 189.6 190.0 190.3 190.7 215.6 215.8 217.1 218.1 218.6 218.8 219.3 219.5 220.4 208.1 208.6 209.0 209.7 210.4 210.9 211.4 212.1 212.4 222.2 222.7 223.3 224.1 224.6 225.0 225.3 225.9 226.1 157.5 158.9 157.1 157.9 159.7 162.7 163.3 164.6 163.7 119.8 119.7 120.8 120.8 121.2 121.4 120.4 120.1 120.1 157.9 159.0 160.8 160.9 163.7 165.0 163.6 163.1 163.4 133.7 134.2 134.0 133.9 134.3 134.6 133.8 133.4 132.9 141.5 145.1 153.1 152.7 164.9 169.9 163.1 160.7 160.9 303.4 305.3 307.0 308.1 309.0 309.9 310.9 311.6 312.6 140.4 142.8 145.5 145.7 152.4 156.4 153.4 153.0 152.4 194.4 194.8 195.5 196.0 196.4 196.6 196.8 196.9 197.5 1 Includes items not shown separately. fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc. excluded beginning 1983. 2 Household 3 Relative importance, December 2003. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Change from preceding period Period Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate Consumer goods Consumer goods Total finished goods Excluding foods Foods Capital equipment Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Consumer goods Total finished goods Foods Excluding foods Capital equipment Total finished goods Foods Excluding foods Capital equipment 2.0 2.2 .4 ¥.6 0 .3 1.2 0 ¥.6 .8 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. ¥0.1 .3 .1 ¥.1 .2 ¥.2 .4 .1 .3 r .5 .1 ¥.1 .4 3.1 5.4 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.6 5.4 5.6 7.9 4.7 2.2 r ¥.5 .3 6.8 17.0 12.3 8.1 ¥5.5 ¥2.9 2.1 13.3 18.3 8.5 ¥3.4 r ¥9.7 ¥6.8 2.8 3.1 0 1.7 7.3 8.8 8.5 4.4 6.4 3.8 4.1 r 1.6 2.7 1.2 1.7 1.2 .9 .6 ¥.6 1.4 .9 2.9 3.5 3.5 r 2.0 1.4 ¥1.1 3.1 3.7 3.0 4.1 3.2 4.1 4.2 5.8 5.0 3.9 3.6 2.5 6.1 8.8 7.9 7.4 5.2 4.4 5.1 3.5 7.2 5.3 4.6 3.4 .5 ¥4.1 2.0 3.1 2.2 5.2 4.3 5.0 5.9 7.6 6.1 4.2 4.0 3.3 Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 ..................... ..................... ..................... ..................... ..................... ..................... ..................... ..................... ..................... ..................... 1.7 2.3 2.8 ¥1.2 0 2.9 3.6 ¥1.6 1.2 4.0 1.1 1.9 3.4 ¥.8 .1 .8 1.7 1.8 ¥.6 7.7 2.0 2.3 3.7 ¥1.5 ¥.1 5.1 5.5 ¥3.9 2.9 4.1 0.6 1.9 2.7 .4 ¥.8 1.8 3.8 2.0 ¥1.3 3.2 Change, month to month 2003: Sept .......... Oct ............ Nov ........... Dec ........... 2004: Jan ............ Feb ........... Mar ........... Apr ............ Mayr .......... June ......... July ........... Aug ........... Sept ........... 0.2 .6 ¥.1 .2 .6 .1 .6 .7 .6 r ¥.1 .1 ¥.1 .1 1.2 2.0 ¥.3 .2 ¥1.3 .4 1.5 1.3 1.5 r ¥.7 ¥1.6 ¥.2 .1 0 .3 ¥.3 .4 1.6 .1 .3 .7 .5 r ¥.3 .7 ¥.1 0 ¥0.3 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.2 .3 1.1 .7 1.1 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.4 3.5 3.4 3.4 4.0 3.3 2.1 1.5 3.7 4.9 4.0 4.0 3.4 3.3 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Housing Transportation Shelter Period All items 1 Food Total 1 Total 1 Rent of Ownpriers’ mary equivaresilent dence rent Fuels and utilities Apparel Total 1 New cars Motor fuel Medical care Energy 2 All items less food and energy Addendum: All items, percent change (annual rate) From previous quarter 3 From From 3 6 months months earlier earlier From year earlier NSA Change, December to December, NSA 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... 2.7 2.5 3.3 1.7 1.6 2.7 3.4 1.6 2.4 1.9 2.9 2.1 4.3 1.5 2.3 1.9 2.8 2.8 1.5 3.6 2.2 3.0 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.2 4.3 2.9 2.4 2.2 3.0 3.5 2.9 3.4 3.3 2.5 3.4 4.2 3.1 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.1 4.0 4.7 3.1 2.7 3.3 3.7 2.8 3.1 3.2 2.4 3.4 4.5 3.3 2.0 0.2 1.4 4.6 .5 ¥2.6 2.4 12.1 ¥2.1 1.4 6.5 ¥1.6 .1 ¥.2 1.0 ¥.7 ¥.5 ¥1.8 ¥3.2 ¥1.8 ¥2.1 3.8 1.5 4.4 ¥1.4 ¥1.7 5.4 4.1 ¥3.8 3.8 .3 3.2 1.6 1.6 ¥1.0 ¥.1 ¥.8 .3 0 ¥2.0 ¥2.1 5.9 ¥4.0 12.7 ¥6.2 ¥15.4 30.2 13.9 ¥24.8 24.6 6.8 4.9 3.9 3.0 2.8 3.4 3.7 4.2 4.7 5.0 3.7 2.2 ¥1.3 8.6 ¥3.4 ¥8.8 13.4 14.2 ¥13.0 10.7 6.9 2.6 3.0 2.6 2.2 2.4 1.9 2.6 2.7 1.9 1.1 .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.3 1.6 2.2 3.4 2.8 1.6 2.3 ¥0.5 ¥.1 ¥.1 ¥.1 ¥.1 .4 ¥.1 ¥.1 .3 .2 ¥.6 ¥.3 ¥.4 6.5 ¥6.1 ¥5.1 0 8.1 2.5 5.5 ¥.3 8.0 3.0 ¥4.0 ¥1.5 .1 0.4 .2 .3 .5 .2 .6 .6 .4 .3 .3 .3 .2 .3 3.3 ¥3.5 ¥3.0 .3 4.7 1.7 1.9 .1 4.6 2.6 ¥1.9 ¥.3 ¥.4 0.1 .2 0 .1 .2 .2 .4 .3 .2 .1 .1 .1 .3 2.4 .......... .......... .7 .......... .......... 3.5 .......... .......... 4.8 .......... .......... 1.9 3.5 2.4 .2 ¥.4 2.0 3.7 5.1 3.9 5.5 4.8 3.7 1.3 .6 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.5 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.9 4.6 4.9 3.8 3.4 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 2.3 3.1 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.5 Change, month to month 2003: Sept .............. Oct ................ Nov ............... Dec ............... 2004: Jan ............... Feb ................ Mar ............... Apr ................ May ............... June .............. July ............... Aug ................ Sept ............... 1 Includes 0.3 ¥.1 ¥.2 .2 .5 .3 .5 .2 .6 .3 ¥.1 .1 .2 0.2 .5 .4 .5 0 .2 .2 .2 .9 .2 .3 .1 0 0.1 .2 ¥.1 .2 .4 .2 .3 .4 .4 .3 .2 .2 .2 0.1 .3 .1 .2 .1 .1 .6 .5 .2 .1 .2 .1 .4 0.2 .1 .2 .2 .1 .2 .2 .3 .3 .2 .2 .3 .1 0.2 .2 .1 .1 .1 .2 .3 .4 .2 .2 .1 .3 .1 0.3 ¥.7 ¥.7 .5 1.6 .9 ¥1.1 .5 1.1 1.9 .4 .8 ¥.5 0.2 .2 ¥.5 ¥.3 ¥.3 ¥.1 .9 0 .3 .2 ¥.8 ¥.2 0 items not shown separately. fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc., excluded beginning 1983. 2 Household 24 0.9 ¥1.4 ¥1.3 ¥.2 1.7 .7 1.1 .1 1.7 .8 ¥.8 ¥.3 .2 3 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS In October, prices received by farmers fell 3.5 percent, while prices paid by farmers were unchanged. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) [1990–92=100; not seasonally adjusted] Prices received by farmers Period 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 All farm products Prices paid by farmers Livestock and products Crops All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates 1 Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates Production items Ratio 2 ............................... ............................... ............................... .............................. .............................. ............................... .............................. .............................. .............................. .............................. 100 102 112 107 102 96 96 102 98 107 105 112 127 115 107 97 96 99 105 111 95 92 99 98 97 95 97 106 90 103 106 109 115 118 115 115 120 123 124 128 106 108 115 118 114 113 118 122 121 126 106 108 115 119 113 111 116 120 119 124 94 93 98 90 89 83 80 83 79 83 2003: Oct ..................... Nov .................... Dec .................... 2004: Jan .................... Feb .................... Mar .................... Apr .................... May .................... June .................. July .................... Aug .................... Sept r .................. Oct ...................... 113 116 114 r 112 116 121 125 129 128 124 120 115 111 111 115 116 113 121 120 123 124 r 123 120 118 112 106 116 117 112 110 112 121 126 133 133 128 123 118 117 129 129 129 130 131 132 133 r 135 r 135 r 135 134 134 134 127 128 127 129 129 130 132 133 133 133 132 132 132 126 126 126 126 127 r 129 131 132 132 r 133 r 132 131 131 88 90 88 r 86 89 92 94 96 r 95 r 92 90 86 83 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910–14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1990–92=100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK AND DEBT MEASURES In September, M2 and M3 rose. [Averages of daily figures, except debt end-of-period basis; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] M1 M2 M3 Debt Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers’ checks, and other checkable deposits (OCDs) M1 plus retail MMMF balances, savings deposits (including MMDAs), and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, RPs, Eurodollars, and institutional MMMF balances Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors1 ........................................................ ........................................................ ........................................................ ........................................................ ........................................................ ........................................................ ........................................................ ........................................................ ........................................................ ........................................................ 1,150.5 1,127.0 1,079.3 1,072.5 1,096.1 1,124.0 1,087.9 1,179.3 1,217.2 1,293.4 3,497.7 3,641.4 3,817.0 4,031.9 4,384.1 4,649.0 4,932.7 5,448.6 5,794.5 6,062.5 4,364.8 4,630.9 4,978.8 5,453.5 6,044.6 6,544.7 7,112.9 8,025.0 8,552.4 8,845.6 12,989.9 13,674.2 14,390.7 15,156.9 16,198.2 17,253.2 18,105.9 19,229.7 20,552.9 22,272.2 1.8 ¥2.0 ¥4.2 ¥.6 2.2 2.5 ¥3.2 8.4 3.2 6.3 0.4 4.1 4.8 5.6 8.7 6.0 6.1 10.5 6.3 4.6 1.9 6.1 7.5 9.5 10.8 8.3 8.7 12.8 6.6 3.4 4.6 5.3 5.2 5.3 6.9 6.3 4.9 6.2 6.9 8.1 2003: Sept ...................................................... Oct ........................................................ Nov ....................................................... Dec ........................................................ 1,281.4 1,284.1 1,283.4 1,293.4 6,083.9 6,069.1 6,065.8 6,062.5 8,879.6 8,856.8 8,844.4 8,845.6 21,882.2 ...................... ...................... 22,272.2 6.6 6.1 4.1 3.5 6.5 4.6 2.7 1.2 5.7 4.3 2.7 1.6 7.0 ............ ............ 6.3 1,287.5 6,070.1 6,120.3 6,167.9 6,216.9 6,289.6 6,299.1 6,292.0 6,300.8 6,330.2 8,905.3 ...................... ...................... 22,780.9 ...................... ...................... 23,220.1 ...................... ...................... ...................... 2.2 4.0 7.0 6.1 6.1 6.6 5.7 5.2 2.7 .1 .4 2.8 4.9 7.4 7.8 7.3 5.9 5.3 1.3 2.0 4.3 6.6 9.1 9.8 7.9 6.7 5.4 ............ ............ 9.1 ............ ............ 7.7 ............ ............ ............ Period 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: 2003: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 2004: Jan ........................................................ Feb ........................................................ Mar ....................................................... Apr r ...................................................... May r ...................................................... June r ..................................................... July r ...................................................... Aug r ...................................................... Sept ...................................................... r 1,307.0 1,326.3 1,323.5 1,322.6 1,335.8 1,324.0 1,341.1 1,344.5 1 Quarterly data; shown in last month of quarter. End-of-year data are for fourth quarter. Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a simple annual rate. 26 r 8,977.9 9,068.6 9,148.1 9,249.0 9,279.0 9,257.3 9,280.6 9,311.7 Percent change From year or 6 months earlier2 M1 M2 M3 From previous period3 Debt 3 Annual changes are from fourth quarter to fourth quarter. Quarterly changes are from previous quarter at an annual rate. NOTE.—See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: 2003: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Currency Nonbank travelers checks Demand deposits Savings deposits, including money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) Other checkable deposits (OCDs) Small denomination time deposits 1 Money market mutual fund balances Large denomination time deposits 1 Institutional Retail Overnight and term Overnight repurand term chase Euroagreedollars ments (net) (RPs) (net) ........................................... ........................................... ........................................... ........................................... ........................................... ........................................... ............................................ ............................................ ........................................... ........................................... 354.0 372.1 394.1 424.6 459.9 517.7 531.6 582.0 627.4 663.9 8.6 9.1 8.8 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.3 8.0 7.8 7.7 383.9 389.3 401.0 394.2 378.4 354.9 310.3 332.5 303.4 312.6 403.9 356.6 275.5 245.3 249.3 242.8 237.8 256.8 278.6 309.2 1,149.4 1,133.9 1,273.1 1,399.1 1,603.6 1,738.2 1,876.2 2,308.9 2,769.5 3,158.4 816.3 931.3 946.8 967.9 951.5 954.0 1,044.2 972.7 892.0 809.1 381.4 449.1 517.7 592.4 732.9 832.7 924.5 987.6 915.9 801.5 210.1 263.3 321.7 395.1 539.0 635.6 789.4 1,193.6 1,245.3 1,113.2 374.4 433.6 515.0 624.8 677.5 752.7 830.3 794.0 803.0 867.9 196.4 198.6 210.6 254.2 294.0 337.0 366.0 378.9 480.9 513.4 86.3 94.0 114.6 147.4 150.0 170.4 194.5 210.0 228.6 288.7 2003: Sept .......................................... Oct ............................................ Nov ........................................... Dec ........................................... 654.1 658.3 661.3 663.9 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.7 313.4 312.2 308.6 312.6 306.3 305.9 305.8 309.2 3,125.6 3,141.2 3,156.2 3,158.4 824.8 818.9 812.9 809.1 852.1 824.9 813.3 801.5 1,175.6 1,154.1 1,131.7 1,113.2 837.9 835.5 847.2 867.9 502.1 511.4 513.3 513.4 280.1 286.8 286.4 288.7 2004: Jan ........................................... Feb ........................................... Mar ........................................... Apr ............................................ May ........................................... June r ......................................... July r ......................................... Aug r .......................................... Sept .......................................... 664.9 665.8 666.8 668.7 671.8 676.7 684.8 687.7 691.7 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.6 301.8 314.3 327.1 323.8 318.9 322.7 306.3 318.4 323.7 313.0 3,190.0 3,234.3 3,278.6 3,340.6 3,411.0 3,414.9 3,432.4 3,429.5 3,458.3 806.6 804.6 802.3 797.9 r 791.6 788.3 789.7 792.6 795.9 786.1 774.4 760.7 754.9 764.5 760.1 745.9 737.5 731.4 1,116.4 1,104.0 1,112.7 1,121.6 1,119.6 1,112.9 1,096.2 1,098.9 1,088.0 901.6 905.4 928.1 956.9 976.5 988.2 1,006.3 1,012.6 1,016.6 515.1 536.3 539.3 523.0 535.5 556.4 538.4 543.9 551.4 302.1 311.9 320.5 329.7 327.7 322.4 324.4 324.4 325.5 r 319.1 324.5 323.1 324.1 328.7 325.4 327.4 321.6 1 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE [Averages of daily figures 1;millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements Period Total 2 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: 2003: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal Reserve (NSA) Reserves of depository institutions Nonborrowed 3 Required Excess (NSA) Monetary base Total Primary Secondary Seasonal Adjustment 4 .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. 59,369 56,430 50,149 46,848 45,254 41,928 38,677 41,411 40,442 42,843 59,160 56,173 49,994 46,523 45,138 41,607 38,467 41,344 40,362 42,797 58,209 55,140 48,733 45,163 43,741 40,631 37,249 39,760 38,433 41,804 1,159 1,290 1,416 1,685 1,514 1,297 1,427 1,651 2,009 1,039 418,196 434,388 451,904 479,826 513,894 593,709 585,104 635,936 682,151 720,978 209 257 155 324 117 320 210 67 80 46 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ 17 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ 0 100 40 68 79 15 67 111 33 45 29 109 217 87 245 101 179 99 34 35 ................ 2003: Sept ................................. Oct .................................. Nov ................................. Dec .................................. 44,289 43,394 43,034 42,843 44,109 43,287 42,966 42,797 42,779 41,921 41,545 41,804 1,510 1,473 1,489 1,039 712,123 715,834 718,968 720,978 181 107 68 46 23 13 25 17 0 0 0 0 158 94 43 29 ................ ................ ................ ................ 2004: Jan .................................. Feb .................................. Mar ................................. Apr r ................................. May r ................................ June r ............................... July r ................................ Aug r ................................ Sept ................................. 43,204 42,994 44,713 45,676 45,386 45,933 45,743 44,757 46,248 43,098 42,952 44,662 45,590 45,275 45,753 45,498 44,506 45,913 42,314 41,805 42,951 43,935 43,798 44,099 44,067 43,206 44,685 891 1,189 1,762 1,741 1,588 1,834 1,676 1,552 1,563 722,605 724,169 725,761 728,824 732,302 737,802 745,606 748,197 753,379 106 42 51 86 112 180 245 251 335 93 28 23 29 9 40 42 18 97 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 14 28 57 103 140 203 233 238 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ 1 Data are prorated averages of biweekly (maintenance period) averages of daily figures. Reserves and monetary base incorporate adjustments for discontinuities, or ‘‘breaks,’’ associated with changes in reserve requirements. 2 Seasonally adjusted break-adjusted required reserves plus unadjusted excess reserves. 3 Seasonally adjusted break-adjusted total reserves less unadjusted total borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal Reserve. 4 Discontinued after January 8, 2003. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK CREDIT AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS Total commercial bank loans and leases rose 1.2 percent in September; commercial and industrial loans rose 0.3 percent. [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1] Securities in bank credit Period 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: 2003: 2003: Dec ........... Dec ........... Dec ........... Dec ........... Dec r .......... Dec r .......... Dec r .......... Dec r .......... Dec r .......... Dec r .......... Sept r ......... Oct r .......... Nov r ......... Dec r .......... 2004: Jan r .......... Feb r .......... Mar r ......... Apr r .......... May r ......... June r ........ July r ......... Aug r ......... Sept .......... Total bank credit 3,318.2 3,601.0 3,756.9 4,099.4 4,532.9 4,763.1 5,216.4 5,427.6 5,885.5 6,249.5 6,185.0 6,161.5 6,198.0 6,249.5 6,320.7 6,440.7 6,517.6 6,536.4 6,544.7 6,587.9 6,600.9 6,629.8 6,696.1 Total securities U.S. Treasury and agency securities 939.9 984.0 984.4 1,098.7 1,237.0 1,282.8 1,348.2 1,493.5 1,721.1 1,850.9 1,788.9 1,804.8 1,832.0 1,850.9 1,855.3 1,930.5 1,980.3 1,952.4 1,929.2 1,933.9 1,906.6 1,913.7 1,924.8 721.6 701.1 702.6 755.6 797.6 815.6 792.4 853.0 1,029.1 1,104.5 1,071.1 1,081.2 1,097.1 1,104.5 1,105.9 1,170.5 1,205.0 1,199.8 1,188.8 1,189.5 1,180.8 1,182.9 1,178.2 Loans and leases in bank credit Real estate CommerOther Total loans cial and securities and leases 2 industrial 218.3 282.9 281.8 343.1 439.5 467.2 555.8 640.5 692.0 746.4 717.8 723.6 734.9 746.4 749.4 760.0 775.3 752.6 740.4 744.4 725.8 730.8 746.6 2,378.3 2,617.0 2,772.6 3,000.7 3,295.9 3,480.3 3,868.2 3,934.1 4,164.4 4,398.6 4,396.1 4,356.7 4,366.0 4,398.6 4,465.4 4,510.2 4,537.3 4,584.0 4,615.5 4,654.0 4,694.3 4,716.2 4,771.3 1 Data are prorated averages of Wednesday values for domestically chartered commercial banks, branches and agencies of foreign banks, New York State investment companies (through September 1996), and Edge Act and agreement corporations. Data are adjusted for breaks caused by reclassifications of assets and liabilities. 28 650.3 723.8 784.7 854.1 947.4 998.6 1,086.8 1,027.0 962.9 891.5 907.9 893.6 888.4 891.5 889.2 888.0 878.4 874.2 874.0 878.6 883.3 889.9 892.7 Total 1,010.7 1,089.5 1,140.1 1,242.7 1,332.9 1,471.1 1,650.5 1,779.7 2,021.2 2,215.6 2,245.3 2,227.6 2,206.8 2,215.6 2,240.9 2,262.7 2,303.8 2,361.4 2,395.7 2,409.4 2,417.3 2,433.1 2,456.8 Revolving home equity 80.5 84.5 90.9 105.0 103.9 101.5 130.0 155.8 213.5 280.8 258.5 265.5 273.2 280.8 291.2 297.6 308.1 318.0 327.9 337.6 347.0 358.3 369.6 Consumer Security Other Other 930.2 1,004.9 1,049.2 1,137.7 1,229.0 1,369.6 1,520.5 1,623.9 1,807.7 1,934.9 1,986.8 1,962.1 1,933.6 1,934.9 1,949.7 1,965.2 1,995.7 2,043.4 2,067.8 2,071.8 2,070.3 2,074.8 2,087.2 448.2 491.4 512.9 502.6 496.9 490.6 539.1 555.8 586.4 629.5 601.6 596.9 625.9 629.5 631.9 634.0 639.1 639.8 641.4 643.9 672.2 672.7 674.3 75.8 83.2 75.3 94.4 145.3 149.8 177.3 146.0 190.2 215.2 212.2 220.1 228.7 215.2 233.7 243.2 243.0 237.6 232.6 248.2 243.7 238.9 254.5 193.3 229.1 259.6 306.9 373.3 370.2 414.4 425.6 403.6 446.8 429.2 418.6 416.3 446.8 469.8 482.2 473.0 470.9 471.7 473.9 477.9 481.6 493.0 2 Excludes Federal funds sold to, reverse repurchase agreements (RPs) with, and loans to commercial banks in the United States. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External (Net increase in liabilities) Funds raised in markets Period Total 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2002: .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. I ............. II ........... III .......... IV .......... 2003: I ............. II ........... III .......... IV .......... 2004: I ............. II p .......... 796.8 997.4 1,066.4 1,004.2 1,307.0 1,730.9 1,973.3 867.5 952.9 1,239.8 637.3 948.5 892.0 1,334.0 1,096.2 1,360.7 1,194.7 1,307.4 1,472.5 1,310.2 Internal 1 555.2 606.6 667.9 720.7 691.0 743.3 735.9 772.3 841.8 940.1 822.8 834.2 831.7 878.6 838.4 928.1 965.0 1,028.7 1,023.6 1,013.5 Credit market instruments Total 241.6 390.8 398.5 283.5 616.0 987.6 1,237.4 95.2 111.1 299.7 ¥185.5 114.3 60.3 455.4 257.8 432.6 229.7 278.7 448.9 296.7 Capital expenditures 3 Total Total net funds raised Net new equity issues Total 81.6 168.8 135.4 214.4 182.5 263.4 239.0 180.7 ¥7.4 97.5 66.9 20.2 ¥191.6 74.8 107.1 218.8 33.0 31.3 153.6 ¥13.6 ¥44.9 ¥58.3 ¥47.3 ¥77.4 ¥215.5 ¥110.4 ¥118.2 ¥47.4 ¥41.6 ¥57.8 ¥10.6 15.5 ¥140.8 ¥30.5 ¥67.0 ¥50.2 ¥44.9 ¥69.0 ¥82.6 ¥159.5 126.5 227.1 182.8 291.8 398.0 373.7 357.2 228.2 34.2 155.3 77.5 4.7 ¥50.8 105.3 174.1 269.0 77.9 100.3 236.2 145.9 1 Profits before tax (book) less taxes on corporate income, less net dividends, plus capital consumption allowance (consumption of fixed capital plus capital consumption adjustment), foreign earnings retained abroad, inventory valuation adjustment, and net capital transfers. 2 Includes trade payables, taxes payable, and miscellaneous liabilities (foreign direct investment in the U.S., pension fund contributions payable, and other). Securities and mortgages 32.2 102.2 129.2 187.2 243.3 268.8 195.2 411.9 178.9 239.3 302.9 233.6 3.8 174.8 242.8 391.3 182.9 140.3 217.7 117.0 Loans and shortterm paper Other 2 94.3 124.9 53.7 104.6 154.9 104.9 162.0 ¥183.8 ¥144.7 ¥84.0 ¥225.4 ¥228.9 ¥54.6 ¥69.6 ¥68.7 ¥122.2 ¥105.0 ¥40.0 18.6 28.9 160.0 222.1 263.1 69.0 433.4 724.3 998.5 ¥85.4 118.6 202.1 ¥252.3 94.1 252.0 380.6 150.7 213.7 196.6 247.4 295.3 310.4 841.2 1,064.6 1,108.3 1,024.2 1,343.7 1,828.8 2,137.7 987.7 912.3 1,267.3 596.2 872.1 856.1 1,324.8 1,129.3 1,364.0 1,234.4 1,341.4 1,479.5 1,370.6 566.1 638.2 654.3 751.8 773.8 858.9 928.5 810.1 761.7 764.9 764.5 759.3 766.8 756.2 743.7 736.9 772.8 806.2 843.5 891.8 Increase in financial assets 275.1 426.4 454.0 272.4 569.9 969.9 1,209.2 177.6 150.6 502.4 ¥168.3 112.8 89.3 568.6 385.6 627.1 461.6 535.2 636.0 478.8 Discrepancy (sources less uses) ¥44.4 ¥67.1 ¥41.9 ¥20.1 ¥36.8 ¥97.9 ¥164.5 ¥120.2 40.7 ¥27.5 41.2 76.4 36.0 9.2 ¥33.0 ¥3.4 ¥39.8 ¥34.0 ¥7.0 ¥60.3 3 Nonresidential fixed investment plus residential fixed investment, inventory change with inventory valuation adjustment, and nonproduced nonfinancial assets. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER CREDIT [Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Consumer credit outstanding (end of period) Period Total 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: 2003: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Revolving Nonrevolving 2 Net change in consumer credit outstanding 1 Total Revolving Nonrevolving 2 ............................................................................... ............................................................................... ............................................................................... ............................................................................... ............................................................................... ............................................................................... ............................................................................... ............................................................................... ............................................................................... ............................................................................... 997.1 1,140.6 1,242.2 1,310.6 1,412.2 1,519.9 1,692.6 1,828.8 1,905.0 1,986.7 365.6 443.1 498.9 527.3 574.3 597.1 665.2 708.9 719.1 734.1 631.6 697.5 743.2 783.4 837.8 922.8 1,027.4 1,119.9 1,185.9 1,252.6 131.4 143.5 101.6 68.4 101.6 107.7 172.7 136.2 76.2 81.7 55.7 77.5 55.8 28.4 47.0 22.8 68.1 43.7 10.2 15.0 75.9 65.9 45.7 40.2 54.4 85.0 104.6 92.5 66.0 66.7 2003: Sept .............................................................................. Oct ............................................................................... Nov ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... 2004: Jan r .............................................................................. Feb r .............................................................................. Mar r ............................................................................. Apr r .............................................................................. May r ............................................................................. June r ............................................................................ July r ............................................................................. Aug r ............................................................................. Sept .............................................................................. 1,975.7 1,982.7 1,982.1 1,986.7 2,012.7 2,013.0 2,017.5 2,019.5 2,023.8 2,027.9 2,041.3 2,043.5 2,053.3 730.7 733.1 735.8 734.1 745.2 745.6 744.3 739.3 738.8 738.7 744.2 742.1 748.3 1,245.0 1,249.7 1,246.3 1,252.6 1,267.5 1,267.4 1,273.3 1,280.1 1,285.0 1,289.2 1,297.1 1,301.4 1,305.0 10.1 7.0 ¥.6 4.6 26.0 .3 4.5 2.0 4.3 4.1 13.4 2.2 9.8 3.1 2.4 2.7 ¥1.7 11.1 .4 ¥1.3 ¥5.0 ¥.5 ¥.1 5.5 ¥2.1 6.2 7.1 4.7 ¥3.4 6.3 14.9 ¥.1 5.9 6.8 4.9 4.2 7.9 4.3 3.6 1 Change based on data in billions of dollars as shown here. For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month. 2 Includes automobile loans and all other loans not included in revolving credit, such as loans for mobile homes, education, boats, trailers, or vacations. These loans may be secured or unsecured. NOTE.—Effective October 7, 2003 data beginning 1977 include student loans extended by the Federal Government and by SLM Holding Corporation, the parent company of Sallie Mae. See Federal Reserve release, G. 19 Consumer Credit, for details. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates were mixed in October. [Percent per annum] U.S. Treasury security yields Constant Period 1994 ....................... 1995 ....................... 1996 ....................... 1997 ....................... 1998 ....................... 1999 ....................... 2000 ....................... 2001 ....................... 2002 ....................... 2003 ....................... 2003: Oct .............. Nov ............. Dec .............. 2004: Jan ............. Feb .............. Mar ............. Apr .............. May ............. June ............ July ............. Aug ............. Sept ............. Oct .............. Week ended: 2004: Oct 9 ........ 16 ....... 23 ....... 30 ....... Nov 6 ........ 1 Bank-discount 3-month bills (new issues) 1 3-year maturities 2 10-year 30-year Highgrade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor’s) 3 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody’s) 30 Primary credit 4.29 5.51 5.02 5.07 4.81 4.66 5.85 3.45 1.62 1.02 0.93 0.94 0.90 0.89 0.92 0.94 0.94 1.04 1.27 1.35 1.48 1.65 1.75 6.27 6.25 5.99 6.10 5.14 5.49 6.22 4.09 3.10 2.10 2.26 2.45 2.44 2.27 2.25 2.00 2.57 3.10 3.26 3.05 2.88 2.83 2.85 7.09 6.57 6.44 6.35 5.26 5.65 6.03 5.02 4.61 4.01 4.29 4.30 4.27 4.15 4.08 3.83 4.35 4.72 4.73 4.50 4.28 4.13 4.10 7.37 6.88 6.71 6.61 5.58 5.87 5.94 5.49 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 6.19 5.95 5.75 5.55 5.12 5.43 5.77 5.19 5.05 4.73 4.84 4.74 4.65 4.53 4.48 4.39 4.84 5.03 5.00 4.82 4.65 4.49 4.43 7.96 7.59 7.37 7.26 6.53 7.04 7.62 7.08 6.49 5.67 5.70 5.65 5.62 5.54 5.50 5.33 5.73 6.04 6.01 5.82 5.65 5.46 5.47 .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 2.12 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.25 2.50 2.75 2.75 1.69 1.68 1.77 1.86 1.95 2.95 2.80 2.81 2.83 2.91 4.20 4.08 4.03 4.05 4.12 * * * * * 4.54 4.43 4.36 4.37 4.41 5.54 5.46 5.43 5.42 5.50 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 basis. on actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Discount window borrowing for primary credit and discount rate (adjustment credit). The rate for primary credit replaced the rate for adjustment credit under an amendment to the Federal Reserve Board’s Regulation A, effective January 9, 2003. 5 Average effective rate for year; rate in effect at end of month or week. 2 Yields Discount window (N.Y. F.R. Bank) 4 5 6 Daily Discount rate 3.60 5.21 5.02 5.00 4.92 4.62 5.73 3.40 1.17 Prime rate charged by banks 5 Federal funds rate 6 Newhome mortgage yields (FHFB) 7 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 7.15 8.83 8.27 8.44 8.35 8.00 9.23 6.91 4.67 4.12 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75 4.75 4.21 5.83 5.30 5.46 5.35 4.97 6.24 3.88 1.67 1.13 1.01 1.00 0.98 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.03 1.26 1.43 1.61 1.76 7.49 7.87 7.80 7.71 7.07 7.04 7.52 7.00 6.43 5.80 5.92 5.92 5.59 5.48 5.72 5.42 5.49 5.77 5.81 5.96 5.88 5.72 .............. * * * * * 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.75 1.82 1.73 1.76 1.74 1.78 .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. effective rate; weighted average of rates on brokered trades. 7 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. *Series no longer published or discontinued. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Housing Finance Board, Moody’s Investors Service, and Standard & Poor’s. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices were mixed in October. Common stock prices 1 Period New York Stock Exchange indexes 2 3 (December 31, 2002=5,000) Dow Jones industrial average 4 Common stock yields (percent) 7 Standard & Poor’s composite index (1941– 43=10) 5 Nasdaq composite index (Feb. 5, 1971=100) 6 Dividendprice ratio Earningsprice ratio Composite Financial Energy Health Care ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... 2,687.02 3,078.56 3,787.20 4,827.35 5,818.26 6,546.81 6,805.89 6,397.85 5,578.89 5,447.93 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ 5,583.00 .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. 5,273.90 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ 5,288.67 3,793.77 4,493.76 5,742.89 7,441.15 8,625.52 10,464.88 10,734.90 10,189.13 9,226.43 8,993.59 460.42 541.72 670.50 873.43 1,085.50 1,327.33 1,427.22 1,194.18 993.94 965.23 751.65 925.19 1,164.96 1,469.49 1,794.91 2,728.15 3,783.67 2,035.00 1,539.73 1,647.17 2.82 2.56 2.19 1.77 1.49 1.25 1.15 1.32 1.61 1.77 5.83 6.09 5.24 4.57 3.46 3.17 3.63 2.95 2.92 3.84 2003: Oct ............................................. Nov ............................................. Dec .............................................. 5,894.39 5,989.42 6,244.68 6,187.33 6,282.53 6,475.68 5,552.99 5,474.84 5,973.31 5,428.31 5,521.85 5,751.14 9,682.46 9,762.20 10,124.66 1,038.73 1,049.90 1,080.64 1,907.89 1,939.25 1,956.98 1.71 1.69 1.67 .................. .................. 4.38 2004: Jan .............................................. Feb .............................................. Mar ............................................. Apr .............................................. May ............................................. June ............................................ July ............................................. Aug ............................................. Sept ............................................. Oct .............................................. 6,569.76 6,661.38 6,574.75 6,600.77 6,371.44 6,548.06 6,443.45 6,352.83 6,551.90 6,608.98 6,827.35 6,978.62 6,914.60 6,792.05 6,495.19 6,683.10 6,569.52 6,566.19 6,773.95 6,792.44 6,323.29 6,337.87 6,455.53 6,638.65 6,572.79 6,780.86 6,971.57 6,866.75 7,270.08 7,593.71 6,000.57 6,134.16 5,908.76 6,028.53 6,022.12 6,063.65 5,823.34 5,733.68 5,890.05 5,668.02 10,540.05 10,601.50 10,323.73 10,418.40 10,083.81 10,364.90 10,152.09 10,032.80 10,204.67 10,001.60 1,132.52 1,143.36 1,123.98 1,133.08 1,102.78 1,132.76 1,105.85 1,088.94 1,117.66 1,118.07 2,098.00 2,048.36 1,979.48 2,021.32 1,930.09 2,000.98 1,912.42 1,821.54 1,884.73 1,938.25 1.62 1.63 1.68 1.68 1.74 1.70 1.77 1.81 1.78 1.79 .................. .................. 4.62 .................. .................. 4.92 .................. .................. .................. .................. Week ended: 2004: Oct 9 16 23 30 Nov 6 6,673.01 6,576.98 6,545.41 6,629.69 6,796.82 6,860.94 6,807.83 6,693.17 6,797.65 7,001.35 7,665.46 7,560.30 7,561.44 7,589.40 7,621.38 5,774.91 5,627.04 5,586.40 5,647.26 5,768.40 10,162.95 9,997.86 9,872.89 9,934.50 10,185.89 1,132.90 1,114.27 1,104.63 1,117.79 1,146.42 1,949.48 1,917.80 1,932.23 1,952.71 2,006.31 1.75 1.79 1.81 1.79 1.77 .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 Average ..................................... ..................................... ..................................... ..................................... ..................................... of daily closing prices. all the stocks (nearly 3,000) listed on the NYSE. January 9, 2003, the NYSE relaunched the composite index with changes in methodology, definitions, and based on Dec. 31, 2002=5,000. Effective January 8, 2004 new indexes for Financial, Energy, and Health Care were introduced by the NYSE. Previous indexes shown for Industrial, Transportation, Utility, and Finance were discontinued. 4 Includes 30 stocks. 2 Includes 3 Effective 5 Includes 500 stocks. over 5,000 stocks. & Poor’s series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. 6 Includes 7 Standard Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones & Company, Inc., Standard & Poor’s, and Nasdaq Stock Market. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In fiscal 2004, there was a deficit of $412.6 billion, compared with a deficit of $377.1 billion a year earlier. [Billions of dollars] Total On-budget Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (¥) Receipts 854.4 909.3 991.2 1,032.0 1,055.0 1,091.3 1,154.4 1,258.6 1,351.8 1,453.1 1,579.3 1,721.8 1,827.5 2,025.2 1,991.2 1,853.2 1,782.1 1,879.8 2,091.4 1,004.1 1,064.5 1,143.6 1,253.2 1,324.4 1,381.7 1,409.5 1,461.9 1,515.8 1,560.5 1,601.3 1,652.6 1,701.9 1,788.8 1,863.8 2,011.0 2,159.2 2,292.4 2,422.6 ¥149.7 ¥155.2 ¥152.5 ¥221.2 ¥269.3 ¥290.4 ¥255.1 ¥203.3 ¥164.0 ¥107.5 ¥22.0 69.2 125.6 236.4 127.4 ¥157.8 ¥377.1 ¥412.6 ¥331.2 641.0 667.8 727.5 750.3 761.2 788.9 842.5 923.6 1,000.8 1,085.6 1,187.3 1,306.0 1,383.0 1,544.6 1,483.7 1,337.9 1,258.3 1,345.1 1,513.7 Fiscal year or period 1987 ...................................... 1988 ...................................... 1989 ...................................... 1990 ...................................... 1991 ...................................... 1992 ...................................... 1993 ...................................... 1994 ...................................... 1995 ...................................... 1996 ...................................... 1997 ...................................... 1998 ...................................... 1999 ...................................... 2000 ...................................... 2001 ...................................... 2002 ...................................... 2003 1 ..................................... 2004 1 .................................... 2005 (estimates) .................... 1 Data from Final Monthly Treasury Statement for fiscal 2004 released October 14, 2004. NOTE.—Data for fiscal 2005 are from Mid-Session Review of the FY 2005 Budget issued July 30, 2004. Other data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2005, issued February 2, 2004. 32 Outlays 810.2 861.8 932.7 1,028.1 1,082.7 1,129.3 1,142.9 1,182.5 1,227.1 1,259.6 1,290.6 1,336.0 1,381.1 1,458.0 1,516.9 1,655.3 1,796.2 1,912.8 2,025.4 Off-budget Surplus or deficit (¥) ¥169.3 ¥194.0 ¥205.2 ¥277.8 ¥321.5 ¥340.5 ¥300.4 ¥258.9 ¥226.4 ¥174.1 ¥103.3 ¥30.0 1.9 86.6 ¥33.4 ¥317.5 ¥538.0 ¥567.8 ¥511.7 Receipts 213.4 241.5 263.7 281.7 293.9 302.4 311.9 335.0 351.1 367.5 392.0 415.8 444.5 480.6 507.5 515.3 523.8 534.7 577.7 Outlays 193.8 202.7 210.9 225.1 241.7 252.3 266.6 279.4 288.7 300.9 310.6 316.6 320.8 330.8 346.8 355.7 363.0 379.5 397.2 Federal debt (end of period) Surplus or deficit (¥) 19.6 38.8 52.8 56.6 52.2 50.1 45.3 55.7 62.4 66.6 81.4 99.2 123.7 149.8 160.7 159.7 160.8 155.2 180.5 Gross Federal 2,346.0 2,601.1 2,867.8 3,206.3 3,598.2 4,001.8 4,351.0 4,643.3 4,920.6 5,181.5 5,369.2 5,478.2 5,605.5 5,628.7 5,769.9 6,198.4 6,758.7 7,352.0 8,016.1 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. Held by the public 1,889.8 2,051.6 2,190.7 2,411.6 2,689.0 2,999.7 3,248.4 3,433.1 3,604.4 3,734.1 3,772.3 3,721.1 3,632.4 3,409.8 3,319.6 3,540.4 3,913.3 4,293.0 4,664.7 FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In fiscal 2004, receipts were $97.7 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $133.2 billion higher. [Billions of dollars] On-budget and off-budget receipts Fiscal year or period Total 1987 ............................................... 1988 ............................................... 1989 ............................................... 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... 2000 ............................................... 2001 .............................................. 2002 .............................................. 2003 2 ............................................. 2004 2 ............................................. 2005 (estimates) ............................ Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes Social insurance and retirement receipts On-budget and off-budget outlays National defense Other Total Total 854.4 909.3 991.2 392.6 401.2 445.7 83.9 94.5 103.3 303.3 334.3 359.4 74.6 1,004.1 79.3 1,064.5 82.8 1,143.6 1,032.0 1,055.0 1,091.3 1,154.4 1,258.6 1,351.8 1,453.1 1,579.3 1,721.8 1,827.5 466.9 467.8 476.0 509.7 543.1 590.2 656.4 737.5 828.6 879.5 93.5 98.1 100.3 117.5 140.4 157.0 171.8 182.3 188.7 184.7 380.0 396.0 413.7 428.3 461.5 484.5 509.4 539.4 571.8 611.8 91.5 93.1 101.4 98.9 113.7 120.1 115.4 120.2 132.7 151.5 2,025.2 1,004.5 1,991.2 994.3 1,853.2 858.3 1,782.1 793.7 1,879.8 809.0 2,091.4 913.1 207.3 151.1 148.0 131.8 189.4 229.6 652.9 694.0 700.8 713.0 733.4 795.0 160.6 151.8 146.0 143.7 148.1 153.7 Department of Defense, military 1 International affairs Health Medicare Income Social security security Net interest Other 282.0 290.4 303.6 273.9 281.9 294.8 11.6 10.5 9.6 40.0 44.5 48.4 75.1 78.9 85.0 124.1 130.4 137.4 207.4 219.3 232.5 138.6 151.8 169.0 125.3 138.7 158.2 1,253.2 1,324.4 1,381.7 1,409.5 1,461.9 1,515.8 1,560.5 1,601.3 1,652.6 1,701.9 299.3 273.3 298.4 291.1 281.6 272.1 265.8 270.5 268.5 274.9 289.7 262.3 286.8 278.5 268.6 259.4 253.1 258.3 256.1 261.3 13.8 15.9 16.1 17.2 17.1 16.4 13.5 15.2 13.1 15.2 57.7 71.2 89.5 99.4 107.1 115.4 119.4 123.8 131.4 141.1 98.1 104.5 119.0 130.6 144.7 159.9 174.2 190.0 192.8 190.4 148.7 172.4 199.5 209.9 217.1 223.7 229.7 235.0 237.7 242.4 248.6 269.0 287.6 304.6 319.6 335.8 349.7 365.3 379.2 390.0 184.3 194.4 199.3 198.7 202.9 232.1 241.1 244.0 241.1 229.8 202.6 223.7 172.2 158.0 171.7 160.3 167.3 157.5 188.8 218.1 1,788.8 1,863.8 2,011.0 2,159.2 2,292.4 2,422.6 294.5 305.5 348.6 404.9 455.5 467.9 281.2 291.0 332.0 388.9 437.1 448.0 17.2 16.5 22.4 20.7 26.4 38.2 154.5 172.3 196.5 219.4 239.8 255.0 197.1 217.4 230.9 249.4 269.4 295.1 253.6 269.6 312.5 334.4 334.7 348.6 409.4 433.0 456.0 474.7 495.6 517.8 223.0 206.2 171.0 153.1 160.5 180.5 239.5 243.4 273.2 302.6 310.5 319.6 1 Data for fiscal 2003, 2004, and 2005 for Department of Defense, military include a small amount classified as international affairs, and not included in national defense. 2 Data from Final Monthly Treasury Statement for fiscal 2004 released October 14, 2004. NOTE.—Data for fiscal 2005 are from Mid-Session Review of the FY 2005 Budget issued July 30, 2004. Other data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2005, issued February 2, 2004. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the third quarter of 2004, according to advance estimates, Federal current expenditures rose $9.1 billion (annual rate); receipts data are incomplete. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Government current receipts Current tax receipts Period Total Total1 Personal current taxes Taxes on production and imports Taxes on corporate income Contributions for government social insurance Federal Government current expenditures Income receipts on assets Current transfer receipts Current surplus of government enterprises Total 2 Consumption expenditures Current transfer payments Interest payments Subsidies Net Federal Government saving Calendar year: 1994 ................ 1995 ................ 1996 ................ 1997 ................ 1998 ................ 1999 ................ 2000 ................ 2001 ................ 2002 ................ 2003 ................ 2001: I ............... II ............. III ............ IV ............ 2002: I ............... II ............. III ............ IV ............ 2003: I ............... II ............. III ............ IV ............ 1,320.8 1,406.5 1,524.0 1,653.1 1,773.8 1,891.2 2,053.8 2,016.2 1,847.3 1,877.0 2,089.2 2,080.5 1,895.4 1,999.6 1,844.6 1,850.5 1,847.9 1,846.2 1,888.6 1,902.5 1,816.4 1,900.6 781.9 845.1 932.4 1,030.6 1,116.8 1,195.7 1,313.6 1,252.2 1,069.0 1,064.5 1,323.0 1,315.6 1,132.0 1,238.1 1,070.4 1,074.1 1,066.6 1,064.8 1,089.7 1,094.2 999.3 1,074.9 542.7 586.0 663.4 744.3 825.8 893.0 999.1 994.5 831.2 775.8 1,047.3 1,045.7 881.0 1,004.1 846.9 835.6 824.4 817.7 809.6 811.6 709.2 772.5 79.4 75.9 73.2 78.2 81.1 83.9 87.8 85.8 87.3 89.4 87.6 86.9 84.2 84.6 85.1 87.8 88.2 88.0 90.3 89.6 88.0 89.6 156.7 179.3 190.6 203.0 204.2 213.0 219.4 164.7 143.4 191.4 180.7 176.6 159.7 141.6 131.4 143.2 146.9 152.2 183.1 183.1 194.3 204.9 493.7 519.2 542.8 576.4 613.8 651.6 691.7 717.5 733.8 758.2 716.4 718.1 717.9 717.6 731.3 734.6 734.3 734.9 747.7 754.0 761.6 769.5 23.4 23.7 26.9 25.9 21.5 21.5 25.2 24.9 20.3 23.0 26.4 25.2 24.4 23.5 21.3 20.2 19.9 19.8 19.4 22.8 24.3 25.5 22.3 19.1 23.1 19.9 21.5 22.7 25.7 27.1 24.8 25.5 27.2 27.3 27.1 26.6 25.4 24.9 24.7 24.3 25.1 25.4 25.8 25.6 ¥0.4 ¥.6 ¥1.2 .3 .1 ¥.3 ¥2.3 ¥5.5 ¥.6 5.8 ¥3.8 ¥5.7 ¥6.1 ¥6.2 ¥3.7 ¥3.3 2.4 2.3 6.6 6.0 5.5 5.0 1,533.1 1,603.5 1,665.8 1,708.9 1,734.9 1,787.6 1,864.4 1,969.5 2,101.8 2,241.6 1,932.6 1,956.9 1,984.0 2,004.3 2,053.1 2,102.1 2,103.1 2,148.8 2,170.2 2,266.9 2,249.4 2,279.8 440.8 440.5 446.3 457.7 454.6 475.1 499.3 531.9 592.7 658.6 518.4 528.0 532.7 548.4 570.7 586.3 593.4 620.3 634.3 665.7 663.0 671.3 799.2 839.0 888.3 918.8 946.5 986.1 1,038.1 1,131.4 1,243.0 1,322.5 1,095.4 1,121.2 1,135.5 1,173.4 1,216.9 1,243.2 1,246.9 1,264.8 1,280.8 1,327.5 1,331.1 1,350.6 261.3 290.4 297.3 300.0 298.8 282.7 283.3 258.6 229.0 214.1 274.5 263.7 253.3 242.8 228.5 236.5 226.2 224.7 213.9 217.7 210.1 214.7 31.8 33.7 34.0 32.4 35.0 43.8 43.8 47.6 37.2 46.4 44.3 44.0 62.5 39.7 37.0 36.1 36.6 39.0 42.5 54.6 45.3 43.2 ¥212.3 ¥197.0 ¥141.8 ¥55.8 38.8 103.6 189.5 46.7 ¥254.5 ¥364.5 156.6 123.6 ¥88.6 ¥4.7 ¥208.5 ¥251.6 ¥255.1 ¥302.7 ¥281.6 ¥364.4 ¥433.0 ¥379.2 2004: I ............... II ............. III p .......... 1,915.3 1,946.2 .............. 1,073.9 1,096.9 .............. 768.3 779.9 793.1 89.0 89.3 89.5 207.9 219.5 .............. 787.9 796.4 804.5 22.9 22.2 22.8 26.1 26.2 26.5 4.6 4.5 4.4 2,306.3 2,329.1 2,338.2 691.1 700.3 713.0 1,365.9 1,367.9 1,366.9 211.1 220.7 220.0 39.7 38.7 38.3 ¥391.0 ¥382.9 .................... 1 Includes 2 Includes 34 taxes from the rest of the world, not shown separately. a subtraction for wage accruals less disbursements, not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Industrial production (1997=100; seasonally adjusted) Period United States 1994 .................................... 1995 .................................... 1996 .................................... 1997 .................................... 1998 .................................... 1999 .................................... 2000 .................................... 2001 ..................................... 2002 .................................... 2003 p ................................... 2003: June ......................... July .......................... Aug .......................... Sept ......................... Oct ........................... Nov .......................... Dec .......................... 2004: Jan .......................... Feb .......................... Mar .......................... Apr .......................... May .......................... June ......................... July p ........................ Aug p ......................... Sept p ........................ Canada Japan France Germany Italy Consumer prices (1982–84=100; NSA) United Kingdom United States 1 85.2 89.4 91.5 94.3 96.2 92.6 95.7 89.3 93.5 94.4 96.1 96.8 98.0 97.3 93.1 94.7 96.6 95.8 97.0 96.3 98.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 105.9 103.5 93.5 103.3 103.8 101.2 101.0 110.6 109.5 93.8 105.7 104.9 101.1 102.3 115.4 118.5 99.0 110.1 110.7 105.3 104.2 111.5 115.0 92.7 111.3 111.0 104.0 102.6 110.9 117.3 91.7 109.9 109.9 102.7 100.0 111.1 117.5 94.5 109.6 110.3 102.2 99.9 110.0 115.8 93.1 108.6 108.7 101.5 99.9 110.8 116.6 93.0 109.3 111.2 103.1 100.4 110.9 115.8 92.6 109.0 108.6 103.1 99.6 111.5 117.9 96.1 110.0 108.4 102.3 99.8 111.8 118.6 97.0 110.8 111.3 102.4 100.6 112.9 118.7 98.0 110.0 112.0 102.7 99.8 113.1 119.7 97.5 110.0 111.9 102.7 99.9 113.8 119.5 100.4 109.7 112.5 102.3 99.8 114.8 118.7 96.6 110.9 112.0 102.3 99.3 114.7 119.8 97.2 111.2 111.9 102.1 99.6 115.3 120.2 100.2 110.9 113.3 102.5 100.4 116.2 121.0 101.3 111.3 114.4 102.2 100.7 r 115.9 121.7 100.0 111.5 112.7 101.5 100.4 r 116.7 .............. 100.3 ............ .............. .............. .............. r 116.5 .............. ............ ............ .............. .............. .............. 116.7 .............. ............ ............ .............. .............. .............. 1 Data relate to all urban consumers. NOTE.—See Note, p. 17, for information on U.S. industrial production series. Canada Japan Germany France United Kingdom Italy 148.2 148.2 119.3 145.8 131.1 195.3 169.3 152.4 151.4 119.2 148.4 133.3 205.6 175.2 156.9 153.8 119.3 151.4 135.3 213.8 179.4 160.5 156.3 121.5 153.2 137.8 218.2 185.1 163.0 157.8 122.2 154.2 139.1 222.5 191.4 166.6 160.5 121.8 155.0 140.0 226.2 194.3 172.2 164.9 121.0 157.6 142.0 231.9 200.1 177.1 169.1 120.1 160.2 144.8 238.3 203.6 179.9 172.9 119.0 163.3 146.7 244.3 207.0 184.0 177.7 118.7 166.7 148.3 250.8 213.0 183.7 177.4 118.8 166.5 148.2 250.7 213.0 183.9 177.5 118.5 166.4 148.5 251.1 213.0 184.6 178.0 118.8 166.7 148.5 251.7 213.4 185.2 178.3 118.9 167.3 148.3 252.1 214.4 185.0 177.8 118.9 167.8 148.3 252.3 214.5 184.5 178.3 118.3 167.9 148.1 252.9 214.7 184.3 178.4 118.4 168.1 149.2 253.1 215.6 185.2 178.5 118.2 168.1 149.3 253.5 215.1 186.2 179.0 118.2 168.8 149.6 254.1 216.0 187.4 179.6 118.4 169.5 150.0 255.0 216.9 188.0 180.0 118.4 169.9 150.5 255.6 218.2 189.1 181.6 118.5 170.5 150.8 256.2 219.1 189.7 181.7 118.8 170.5 150.8 256.6 219.5 189.4 181.6 118.4 170.2 151.2 256.8 219.5 189.5 .............. ............ 170.7 151.5 257.4 220.2 189.9 .............. ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Trade Administration, Office of Trade and Economic Analysis). U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES [Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Goods: Exports (f.a.s. value) Goods: Imports (customs value) Census basis (by end-use category) Services (BOP basis) Balance of trade (exports minus imports) Census basis (by end-use category) BOP basis Period BOP basis Total, Census basis 1 Auto- ConIndusmo- sumer Foods, trial Capital tive goods feeds, supgoods vehi- (nonand plies except cles, food) bevand auto- parts except erages mate- motive and autorials enmogines tive BOP basis IndusAutoFoods, trial Capital motive Total, feeds, supgoods vehiCensus and plies except cles, basis 1 bevand auto- parts erages mate- motive and enrials gines Consumer goods (nonfood) except automotive Exports Imports Goods, Census basis Goods Services Goods and services ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. 502.9 575.2 612.1 678.4 670.4 684.0 772.0 718.7 681.8 713.1 512.6 584.7 625.1 689.2 682.1 695.8 781.9 729.1 693.1 724.8 42.0 50.5 55.5 51.5 46.4 46.0 47.9 49.4 49.6 55.0 121.4 146.2 147.7 158.2 148.3 147.5 172.6 160.1 156.8 173.0 205.0 233.0 253.0 294.5 299.4 310.8 356.9 321.7 290.4 293.6 57.8 61.8 65.0 74.0 72.4 75.3 80.4 75.4 78.9 80.7 60.0 64.4 70.1 77.4 80.3 80.9 89.4 88.3 84.4 89.9 668.7 749.4 803.1 876.5 917.1 1,030.0 1,224.4 1,145.9 1,164.7 1,260.7 663.3 743.5 795.3 869.7 911.9 1,024.6 1,218.0 1,141.0 1,161.4 1,257.1 31.0 33.2 35.7 39.7 41.2 43.6 46.0 46.6 49.7 55.8 162.1 181.8 204.5 213.8 200.1 221.4 299.0 273.9 267.7 313.8 184.4 221.4 228.1 253.3 269.5 295.7 347.0 298.0 283.3 295.8 118.3 123.8 128.9 139.8 148.7 179.0 195.9 189.8 203.7 210.2 146.3 159.9 172.0 193.8 217.0 241.9 281.8 284.3 307.8 333.9 200.4 219.2 239.5 256.3 263.1 282.5 299.0 287.9 294.1 307.4 132.9 141.3 152.4 166.3 181.3 199.7 224.9 223.4 232.9 256.3 ¥150.6 ¥158.8 ¥170.2 ¥180.5 ¥229.8 ¥328.8 ¥436.1 ¥411.9 ¥468.3 ¥532.4 ¥165.8 ¥174.2 ¥191.0 ¥198.1 ¥246.7 ¥346.0 ¥452.4 ¥427.2 ¥482.9 ¥547.6 67.5 77.9 87.1 89.9 81.8 82.8 74.1 64.5 61.2 51.0 ¥98.4 ¥96.3 ¥103.9 ¥108.2 ¥164.9 ¥263.3 ¥378.3 ¥362.7 ¥421.7 ¥496.5 2003: Aug ... Sept .. Oct .... Nov ... Dec ... 58.2 59.9 61.2 63.1 62.6 59.3 61.0 61.9 64.2 63.4 4.5 4.7 4.8 5.0 4.9 14.1 14.2 14.6 14.6 15.1 24.1 24.8 25.5 26.8 26.0 6.4 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.9 7.5 7.7 7.6 8.0 7.8 102.6 105.5 107.3 107.8 111.1 102.2 105.2 107.1 107.6 110.9 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 26.0 26.1 26.0 25.8 28.1 24.2 25.1 25.4 25.6 26.7 16.3 17.5 18.0 18.1 18.3 27.4 27.8 28.9 29.1 28.9 25.9 26.1 26.9 27.1 27.5 21.7 21.8 22.3 22.3 22.9 ¥42.9 ¥44.2 ¥45.1 ¥43.4 ¥47.5 ¥44.4 ¥45.6 ¥46.2 ¥44.7 ¥48.5 4.2 4.3 4.7 4.7 4.5 ¥40.2 ¥41.3 ¥41.5 ¥40.0 ¥44.0 2004: Jan ... Feb ... Mar ... Apr ... May .. June July r Aug p 61.7 64.9 67.3 65.9 68.7 64.7 67.5 67.4 62.7 65.9 68.5 66.9 69.6 65.7 68.2 68.2 4.6 4.7 4.9 4.7 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.2 15.1 16.0 16.7 16.3 17.3 16.1 17.3 16.9 25.9 27.2 27.7 27.1 28.7 26.4 27.8 27.8 6.7 7.0 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.0 7.6 7.8 7.7 8.2 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.2 8.6 111.3 114.7 118.7 118.9 120.2 123.8 122.2 124.8 111.0 114.5 118.4 118.7 119.9 123.5 122.0 124.5 4.8 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1 28.3 31.2 31.8 30.9 31.9 35.1 33.9 36.3 26.7 26.3 27.2 27.8 28.0 29.4 29.2 29.0 17.8 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.4 18.7 19.1 19.3 29.4 28.9 31.2 31.7 31.0 31.0 30.5 30.5 26.9 27.3 27.9 28.4 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 23.1 23.3 23.6 23.6 23.8 24.3 24.2 25.2 ¥48.4 ¥48.6 ¥49.9 ¥51.8 ¥50.3 ¥57.8 ¥53.7 ¥56.3 ¥49.6 ¥49.8 ¥51.4 ¥53.0 ¥51.5 ¥59.1 ¥54.8 ¥57.4 3.8 4.0 4.4 4.8 4.4 4.1 4.2 3.4 ¥45.8 ¥45.8 ¥47.1 ¥48.2 ¥47.1 ¥55.0 ¥50.5 ¥54.0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 Total includes ‘‘other’’ exports or imports, not shown separately. NOTE.—BOP refers to balance of payments on international transactions basis. BOP data shown here are consistent with figures shown on pp. 36 and 37. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis). 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the second quarter of 2004, the goods deficit rose to $163.6 billion, from $150.8 billion in the first quarter. The current account deficit rose to $166.2 billion in the second quarter from $147.2 billion in the first quarter. [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits (¥)] Goods 1 Period Exports Imports Services Balance on goods Net military transactions 2 ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. 502,859 575,204 612,113 678,366 670,416 683,965 771,994 718,712 681,833 713,122 ¥668,690 ¥749,374 ¥803,113 ¥876,470 ¥917,103 ¥1,029,980 ¥1,224,408 ¥1,145,900 ¥1,164,728 ¥1,260,674 ¥165,831 ¥174,170 ¥191,000 ¥198,104 ¥246,687 ¥346,015 ¥452,414 ¥427,188 ¥482,895 ¥547,552 2001: III ..... IV ..... 172,648 167,058 ¥277,881 ¥268,409 ¥105,233 ¥101,351 ¥341 ¥1,349 2002: I ........ II ....... III ..... IV ..... 165,123 172,034 174,371 170,305 ¥273,520 ¥291,395 ¥296,778 ¥303,035 ¥108,397 ¥119,361 ¥122,407 ¥132,730 2003: I ........ II ....... III ..... IV ..... 173,459 174,554 178,251 186,858 ¥311,402 ¥310,087 ¥312,886 ¥326,299 2004: I ........ II p ..... 193,920 199,315 ¥344,688 ¥362,895 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 Adjusted Net travel and transportation 36 Other services, net Receipts Payments Balance on income Unilateral current transfers, net 3 Balance on current account 48,577 51,533 56,658 62,806 66,389 73,085 71,267 70,046 71,769 73,973 ¥98,379 ¥96,265 ¥103,942 ¥108,178 ¥164,868 ¥263,252 ¥378,344 ¥362,692 ¥421,735 ¥496,508 166,521 210,244 226,129 256,804 261,308 293,222 350,449 286,692 266,799 294,385 ¥149,375 ¥189,353 ¥203,811 ¥244,195 ¥257,554 ¥280,037 ¥329,864 ¥263,120 ¥259,626 ¥261,106 17,146 20,891 22,318 12,609 3,754 13,185 20,585 23,572 7,173 33,279 ¥36,799 ¥34,104 ¥38,583 ¥40,410 ¥48,443 ¥46,755 ¥55,684 ¥46,581 ¥59,382 ¥67,439 ¥118,032 ¥109,478 ¥120,207 ¥135,979 ¥209,557 ¥296,822 ¥413,443 ¥385,701 ¥473,944 ¥530,668 ¥719 ¥2,563 17,017 18,193 ¥89,276 ¥87,070 67,465 62,008 ¥68,367 ¥48,425 ¥902 13,583 ¥1,719 ¥16,087 ¥91,897 ¥89,574 ¥1,574 ¥1,882 ¥1,537 ¥2,165 ¥802 ¥1,073 ¥901 ¥675 17,014 ¥93,759 18,943 ¥103,373 17,929 ¥106,916 17,882 ¥117,688 63,455 67,306 69,542 66,496 ¥62,490 ¥68,260 ¥68,199 ¥60,677 965 ¥954 1,343 5,819 ¥17,411 ¥13,562 ¥13,427 ¥14,980 ¥110,205 ¥117,889 ¥119,000 ¥126,849 ¥137,943 ¥135,533 ¥134,635 ¥139,441 ¥2,905 ¥3,215 ¥3,047 ¥3,459 ¥2,745 ¥3,183 ¥3,088 ¥1,287 18,207 18,551 18,520 18,693 ¥125,386 ¥123,380 ¥122,250 ¥125,494 67,677 68,893 73,785 84,030 ¥63,682 ¥63,019 ¥66,524 ¥67,879 3,995 5,874 7,261 16,151 ¥16,815 ¥16,369 ¥16,639 ¥17,617 ¥138,206 ¥133,875 ¥131,628 ¥126,960 ¥150,768 ¥163,580 ¥3,534 ¥3,191 ¥2,668 ¥1,950 18,368 ¥138,602 18,435 ¥150,286 83,528 86,883 ¥71,364 ¥84,240 12,164 2,643 ¥20,726 ¥18,534 ¥147,164 ¥166,177 2,570 16,305 4,600 21,772 5,385 25,015 4,968 22,152 5,220 10,210 2,593 7,085 317 2,486 ¥2,296 ¥3,254 ¥7,158 ¥3,451 ¥12,626 ¥10,303 from Census data for differences in timing and coverage; excludes military. under U.S. military agency sales contracts (exports) minus direct defense expenditures (imports). 2 Transfers Income receipts and payments Balance on goods and services 3 Includes transfers of goods and services under U.S. military grant programs. See p. 37 for continuation of table. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the financial account, U.S. claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $30.9 billion in the second quarter of 2004, following an increase of $187.1 billion in the first quarter. U.S. liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $30.9 billion in the second quarter, following an increase of $140.8 billion in the first quarter. [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits (¥)] Financial account Period Capital account transactions, net U.S.-owned assets abroad, net [increase/financial outflow (¥)] Total U.S. official reserve assets 4 Other U.S. Government assets Statistical discrepancy Foreign-owned assets in the U.S., net [increase/financial inflow (+)] U.S. private assets Total Foreign official assets Other foreign assets Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy U.S. official reserve assets, net 4 (unadjusted, end of period) .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. ¥1,723 ¥927 ¥654 ¥1,044 ¥740 ¥4,843 ¥809 ¥1,083 ¥1,260 ¥3,079 ¥178,937 ¥352,264 ¥413,409 ¥485,475 ¥347,829 ¥503,640 ¥569,798 ¥366,768 ¥198,014 ¥283,414 5,346 ¥9,742 6,668 ¥1,010 ¥6,783 8,747 ¥290 ¥4,911 ¥3,681 1,523 ¥390 ¥984 ¥989 68 ¥422 2,750 ¥941 ¥486 345 537 ¥183,893 ¥341,538 ¥419,088 ¥484,533 ¥340,624 ¥515,137 ¥568,567 ¥361,371 ¥194,678 ¥285,474 305,989 438,562 551,096 706,809 423,569 740,210 1,046,896 782,859 768,246 829,173 39,583 109,880 126,724 19,036 ¥19,903 43,543 42,758 28,059 113,990 248,573 266,406 328,682 424,372 687,773 443,472 696,667 1,004,138 754,800 654,256 580,600 ¥7,297 24,107 ¥16,826 ¥84,311 134,557 65,095 ¥62,846 ¥29,307 ¥95,028 ¥12,012 .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. 74,335 85,832 75,089 69,954 81,761 71,516 67,647 68,654 79,006 85,938 2001: III .......................... IV ........................... 2002: I ............................. II ............................ III .......................... IV ........................... 2003: I ............................. II ............................ III .......................... IV ........................... 2004: I ............................. II p .......................... ¥297 ¥257 ¥281 ¥271 ¥361 ¥347 ¥406 ¥1,552 ¥821 ¥300 ¥396 ¥321 37,302 ¥108,601 ¥34,144 ¥133,373 21,574 ¥52,069 ¥102,665 ¥110,962 ¥8,138 ¥61,647 ¥306,729 ¥118,455 ¥3,559 ¥199 390 ¥1,843 ¥1,416 ¥812 83 ¥170 ¥611 2,221 557 1,122 77 143 133 42 ¥27 197 53 310 483 ¥309 727 ¥41 40,784 ¥108,545 ¥34,667 ¥131,572 23,017 ¥51,454 ¥102,801 ¥111,102 ¥8,010 ¥63,559 ¥308,013 ¥119,536 22,936 219,902 165,989 229,135 150,075 223,047 246,105 218,553 134,202 230,311 445,348 265,246 15,653 11,038 12,801 53,312 17,720 30,157 48,986 65,245 50,663 83,679 127,864 73,877 7,283 208,864 153,188 175,823 132,355 192,890 197,119 153,308 83,539 146,632 317,484 191,369 31,956 ¥21,470 ¥21,359 22,398 ¥52,288 ¥43,782 ¥4,828 27,836 6,385 ¥41,404 8,941 19,707 ¥9,618 5,541 10,292 ¥1,206 ¥14,052 4,963 11,091 ¥3,121 ¥13,418 5,449 11,839 ¥5,301 70,963 68,654 67,574 74,696 75,860 79,006 80,049 81,660 84,431 85,938 85,192 82,652 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 4 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDRs), foreign currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents Page TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Gross Domestic Product .......................................................................................................................................................................................... Real Gross Domestic Product .................................................................................................................................................................................. Implicit Price Deflators for Gross Domestic Product .............................................................................................................................................. Gross Domestic Product and Related Price Measures: Indexes and Percent Changes .............................................................................................. Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Gross Value Added and Price, Costs, and Profits ............................................................................................. National Income ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... Real Personal Consumption Expenditures ............................................................................................................................................................... Sources of Personal Income ...................................................................................................................................................................................... Disposition of Personal Income ............................................................................................................................................................................... Farm Income ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ Corporate Profits ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... Real Gross Private Domestic Investment ................................................................................................................................................................ Real Private Fixed Investment by Type .................................................................................................................................................................. Business Investment ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force ......................................................................................................................................................................................... Selected Unemployment Rates ................................................................................................................................................................................ Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs ...................................................................................................... Nonagricultural Employment .................................................................................................................................................................................. Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries ................................................................. Employment Cost Index—Private Industry ............................................................................................................................................................. Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector ...................................................................................................................................................... 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization ....................................................................................................................................................... Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures .............................................................................................................. New Construction .................................................................................................................................................................................................... New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates ............................................................................................................................................................... Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade ..................................................................................................................................... Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders ................................................................................................................................................. 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers ................................................................................................................................................................ Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods ...................................................................................................................................................... Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers ............................................................................................................................................. Prices Received and Paid by Farmers ...................................................................................................................................................................... 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock and Debt Measures ............................................................................................................................................................................. Components of Money Stock ................................................................................................................................................................................... Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base ................................................................................................................................................................... Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks .................................................................................................................................................................... Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business .................................................................................................................. Consumer Credit ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... Interest Rates and Bond Yields ............................................................................................................................................................................... Common Stock Prices and Yields ............................................................................................................................................................................ 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt ....................................................................................................................................................................... Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function .............................................................................................................................................. Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis ..................................................................................................................................................... 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries ............................................................................................................... U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services ...................................................................................................................................................... U.S. International Transactions ................................................................................................................................................................................ 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: p Preliminary. r Revised. c Corrected. … Not available (also, not applicable). NSA not seasonally adjusted. 38 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Price $3.00 (single copy) ($3.75 foreign). Subscription price: $33.00 per year; $41.25 for foreign mailing. U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 2004 96–663