Full text of Economic Indicators : October 1978
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95th Congress, 2d Session Economic Indicators October 1378 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1978 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) RICHARD BOLLING, Missouri, Chairman LLOYD BENTSEN, Texas, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES HENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin) WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania) LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana) GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana) PARREN 1. MITCHELL (Maryland) CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio) GARRY BROWN (Michigan) MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts) JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California) SENATE JOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama) WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) ABRAHAM RIBICOFF (Connecticut) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) GEORGE McGOVERN (South Dakota) JACOB K. JAVITS (New York) WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) JAMES A. McCLURE (Idaho) ORRIN G. HATCH (Utah) JOHN R. STARK, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS CHARLES L. SCHULTZE, Chairman LYLE E. GRAMLEY WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—1st SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION fSJ. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled. That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk. Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23: 1949. Charts draun by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $1.30 a single copy or by subscription at $15.00 per year ($3.75 additional for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to preliminary estimates for the third quarter, gross national product rose $53.6 billion or 10.7 percent, both at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) increased 3.4 percent from the second quarter level and the implicit price deflator rose at a 7.0 percent annual rate. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 2,400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 2,400 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 2,200 2,200 2,000 2,000 1,800 1,800 GNP IN CURRENT DOLLARS 1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400 '" \GNP- 1,200 1,200 IN 1972 DOLLARS 1,000 1972 1971 1973 1976 1975 1974 1977 SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1,000 1979 1978' COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS IBillions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures 1967 1968 1969. 1970 1971__ 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 796. 3 490. 4 868. 5 535. 9 935.5 579. 7 982. 4 618. 8 1, 063. 4 668.2 1. 171. 1 733. 0 1, 306. 6 809. 9 1,412.9 889.6 1, 528. 8 979. 1 1, 700. 1 1, 090. 2 1, 887. 21, 206. 5 1977:1 II... III__ IV___ 1, 806. 1, 867. 1, 916. 1, 958. 8 1, 167. 7 0 1, 188. 6 8 1, 214. 5 1 1, 255. 2 1, 992. 0 1, 276. 7 1978:1 II... 2, 087. 5 1, 322. 9 III p. 2, 141. 11, 354. 5 Gross private domestic investment Export s gooc Is Net exports and imj3orts of and ser vices services Federal National defense l State and local Final sales Exports Imports Total 40.6 47. 7 52.9 58. 5 64. 0 75.9 94. 4 131. 9 126. 9 155.7 186. 6 180.2 198. 7 207. 9 218. 9 233. 7 253. 1 269. 5 302. 7 338. 4 359. 5 394.0 90. 9 98. 0 97. 5 95.6 96.2 102. 1 102. 2 111. 1 123. 1 129.9 145. 1 71. 5 . 76. 9 76. 3 73.5 70. 2 73. 5 73. 5 77. 0 83.7 86.8 94.3 19. 5 21. 2 21. 2 22. 1 26.0 28. 6 28.7 34. 1 39. 4 43. 1 50.8 89. 3 100. 7 110. 4 123.2 137. 5 151. 0 167.3 191. 5 215.4 229. 6 248.9 786.2 860. 8 926.2 978. 6 1, 057. 1 1, 161. 7 1, 288. 6 1, 404. 0 1, 539. 6 1, 689. 9 1, 871. 6 Total Nondefense 120. 8 131. 5 146.2 140.8 160.0 188. 3 220.0 214. 6 190. 9 243. 0 297.8 — 11. 1 45.6 49. 9 54. 7 62. 5 65. 6 72. 7 101. 6 137. 9 147.3 163. 2 175. 5 272. 5 295. 6 309. 7 313.5 -8.5 -5.9 -7.0 -23. 2 170.9 178. 1 180. 8 172. 1 179.4 184.0 187. 8 195.2 375.0 388.8 399. 5 412. 5 138.3 142. 9 146. 8 152.2 91.9 93. 7 94. 4 97. 1 46.4 49. 3 52.4 55. 1 236. 7 245. 9 252. 7 260.3 1, 796. 5 1, 850. 0 1, 894. 9 1, 945. 0 322. 7 345. 4 351. 7 -24. 1 -5.5 -6. 5 181.7 205.4 210. 9 205.8 210. 9 217. 3 416. 7 424. 7 441. 3 151.5 147. 2 156. 1 97.9 98. 6 100. 2 53.6 48. 6 55. 9 265.2 277. 6 285. 2 1, 975. 3 2, 067. 4 2, 123. 4 4.9 2. 3 1. 8 3.9 1. 6 -3. 3 7. 1 6. 0 20.4 7.4 1 This category eorrespor ds closely iwith budget outlays for n ational defenise, shown on p. 33. Go vernment purchases of goods and Source: Depart ment of Conimerce, Bure au of Econonlie Analysis. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS [Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Exf >orts of gc>ods and service!S Gross private dc mestic iiivestment Personal conGross national sumption product expenditures Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed 1, 007. 7 1, 051. 8 1, 078. 8 1, 075. 3 1, 107. 5 1, 171. 1 1, 235. 0 1, 217. 8 1, 202. 3 1, 271. 0 1, 332. 7 603.2 633.4 655.4 668.9 691.9 733.0 767.7 760.7 774.6 819.4 857.7 103.5 108.0 114.3 110. 0 108.0 116.8 131.0 130.6 113.6 118.9 129.8 37.2 42.8 43.2 40.4 52.2 62.0 59.7 45.0 38.8 47.8 57.7 12.0 8.7 10.6 4.3 6.6 9.4 16.5 8.0 -9.8 6.7 8.9 1977:1—. 1, 306. 7 II__. 1, 325. 5 III.. 1, 343. 9 IV... 1, 354. 5 846.6 849.5 858.0 876.6 126.8 129. 1 130.8 132.5 53.5 58.0 58.8 60.3 1978: 1_... 1, 354. 2 II___ 1, 382. 6 III*. 1, 394. 3 873.5 886.3 893.7 133. 8 140.5 140.4 59.5 59.9 59.7 Period 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 Change in busiNT*kf iNet Exports Imports ness in- exports ventories Governinent pure bases of good s and ser vices Total Federal State and local Final sales 9.5 54.2 58.5 62.2 67. 1 67.9 72.7 87.4 93.0 90. 0 95.9 98.2 50.7 58.9 63.5 65.7 68.5 75.9 79.9 77. 1 67.5 80.5 88.7 248.3 259.2 256.7 250.2 249. 4 253. 1 252.5 257. 7 262.6 262.8 269.2 125.3 128.3 121.8 110.7 103.9 102. 1 96.6 95.8 96.5 96.6 101. 6 123. 1 130.9 134.9 139.5 145.5 15LO 155.9 161.8 166. 1 166. 2 167. 6 995.7 1, 043. 1 1, 068. 2 1, 071. 0 1, 100. 9 1, 161. 7 1, 218. 5 1, 209. 9 1, 212. 1 1, 264. 4 1, 323. 8 5.8 10.0 12.2 7.5 11.2 11.0 12.5 3. 1 97. 1 98.9 100.8 96.0 85.9 87.9 88.2 92.9 262.8 267.9 271.7 274.5 98.7 101.3 102.9 103.6 164. 1 166.6 168.8 170.9 1, 300. 9 I , 315. 5 1, 331. 7 1, 347. 1 12.3 12.7 10.7 11.3 12.0 2.9 99. 1 108.4 109.5 96.2 97. 1 97.5 272. 1 271.9 277.8 101.2 97.1 101.9 170.8 174.8 175.9 1, 341. 8 1, 369. 9 1, 383. 5 3.5 -.4 ~1.3 1.4 -.6 -3.3 7.6 15.9 22.6 15.4 IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1972=100] Gross national product Period Personal consump tion expe nditures Total 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 Gross ]private dom estic invest,ment NonresNonDurable durable Services idential fixed goods Residential fixed Expor ts and imports of goods and se rvices Governnlent purchases <>f goods and sc>r vices Exports Imports Federal State and local 79.02 82.57 86.72 91.36 96. 02 100. 00 105. 80 116. 02 127. 15 133. 76 141. 61 81.3 84.6 88.5 92.5 96.6 100. 0 105.5 116.9 126.4 133. 1 140.7 87.4 90.7 93. 1 95.5 99.0 100.0 101.6 108. 4 117.7 124.4 129.5 81.9 85.3 89.4 93.6 96.6 100. 0 107.9 123.8 133.4 138. 2 145.0 78.8 82.0 86. 1 90.5 95. 8 100.0 104.7 113.6 123. 2 131. 6 141.0 79.3 82.6 86.6 91. 3 96.4 100.0 103.8 115.3 132.2 138.4 146.7 77.0 80.7 87.7 90.6 94.9 100. 0 110.8 122.3 132.8 142.5 159.4 84.0 85.3 87.9 93. 1 96.6 100.0 116.2 148.3 163.6 170. 1 178.7 80. 1 80.9 83.3 89. 1 93.5 100.0 118.2 171.0 188. 0 193.5 210.3 72.6 76.4 80.0 86.4 92.6 100.0 105.8 115.9 127.5 134.4 142.7 72.5 76.9 81.9 88.3 94.5 100.0 107.3 118.4 129.7 138. 1 148.5 1977:1 II III IV_ 138. 140. 142. 144. 27 86 63 56 137.9 139.9 141.6 143.2 128.4 128.9 129.5 130.9 142.4 144.7 145.7 147.0 137.4 139.7 142.3 144.4 142.5 145. 0 147.9 151.2 152.3 157. 6 160. 6 166. 1 176. 1 180.0 179.4 179.2 208.9 209. 3 212.9 210.2 140. 1 141. 1 142.7 146.9 144.3 147.6 149.7 152.3 1978:1 II III*>__ 147. 10 150. 98 153. 56 146.2 149.3 151.6 133. 1 135.7 137.8 150.4 154.4 156. 1 147. 1 149.9 152.7 153. 6 156.7 160. 5 168.6 175.7 182.2 183.3 189.4 192. 6 213.8 217. 2 222. 9 149. 6 151.5 153. 3 155. 2 158.8 162. 1 __ Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross <domestic |product Gross national p>roduet Period 1967 1968 . 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 _ 1975. 1976 1977 Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars . 1977: I II...—.... III IV 1978: I .... II Ill* ___ . Implicit price deflator Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) Chain price index Current dollars Implicit price deflator Constant (1972) dollars Chain price index Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) as 9. 1 7.7 5.0 8.2 10. 1 11.6 8. 1 8.2 11.2 11.0 2.7 4.4 2.6 -.3 3.0 5.7 5.5 -1.4 -1.3 5.7 4.9 2.9 4.5 5.0 5.4 5. 1 4.1 5.8 9.7 9.6 5.2 5.9 3.0 4.4 5.0 5.3 5.0 4. 1 6. 0 9.9 9.4 5.6 6.2 3.0 4.3 5.0 5.2 4.9 4.0 6.0 10.2 9.3 5.6 6.3 5.7 9. 1 7.8 5.0 8. 1 10. 1 11.5 7.9 8. 5 11.0 10.9 2.7 4.4 2.6 -.3 2.8 5.8 5.4 -1.3 -1. 1 5.6 4.8 3.0 4.5 5. 1 5.3 5. 1 4. 1 5.7 9.3 9.7 5.2 5.8 3. 1 4.4 5.0 5.3 5.0 4. 1 5.9 9.6 9.4 5.7 6. 1 3.0 4.4 5.0 5.2 4.9 4.0 5.9 9.9 9.3 5.7 6.3 13.7 14.0 11. 1 8.9 7.3 5.9 5.7 3.2 6.0 7.7 5. 1 5.5 6.6 7.3 4.6 6.5 7.0 7.4 4.7 6.8 13.3 13.9 11.2 9.5 7. 1 5.8 5.8 3.5 5.7 7.7 5. 1 5.8 6.4 7.4 4.5 6.7 6.8 7.5 4.6 7.0 7.1 20.6 10.7 -. 1 8.7 3.4 7.2 11.0 7.0 7. 1 10.8 7. 1 7.0 11.0 7.2 6.7 20. 1 10.7 —.4 8. 3 3.5 7. 1 10.9 7.0 7. 1 10.9 7.0 7.0 11.0 7.2 NOTE.—Annual changes from previous year and quarterly changes from previous quarter. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS Period Gross d omestic produict of nonfin ancial corpc>rate busi ness (billic ns of doll ars) [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Cijrrent-dollar cost a nd profit per unit of outpu t (dollars) i Capital consumption ComTotal penallowNet cost ances Indirect sation and 2 with business of incapital taxes * employ- terest profit conees sumption adjustment Profits after4 tax 0.535 0.016 0. 123 . 124 .553 .017 .022 . 109 .589 . 028 .086 .628 .095 .645 .029 .661 . 107 .028 . 032 . 105 .699 .086 .043 .796 . 113 .848 .045 .042 .891 . 139 . 148 .952 .044 0.051 .058 .055 .045 .048 .050 .055 .061 .060 .073 .077 0.072 .066 .055 .041 .046 .057 .050 .024 .053 .066 .071 6.873 7. 105 7. 139 7. 132 7.374 7.595 7.780 7.504 7.777 8.045 8. 190 3.676 3.929 4. 198 4.478 4757 5.024 5.440 5.971 6.597 7. 166 7.794 .043 .043 . 044 .045 . 134 . 148 . 158 . 151 .075 .078 .076 .077 .059 .070 .082 .074 8.097 8. 152 8.257 8.252 7.550 7.709 7.884 8.027 .046 .045 . 129 .157 .071 .086 .057 .071 8. 198 8.280 8.264 8.434 1972 dollars 452.9 498.4 541. 8 560.6 602.5 671.0 752.0 808.8 874. 1 988. 5 1, 103. 2 545.8 581.6 607.3 600.6 619.3 671.0 720.4 695.0 680.0 730.0 769.3 0.830 .857 .892 .933 .973 1.000 1. 044 1. 164 1.285 1.354 1.434 1, 048. 5 1977:1 II— 1, 093. 3 III.. 1, 124. 6 IV... 1, 146. 3 750.2 766.9 776.7 783.6 1.398 1. 426 1.448 1.463 . 149 . 149 . 151 . 152 , 140 . 139 . 140 . 142 .932 .946 .955 .973 1978: 1 1, 161. 6 IL___ 1, 233. 0 783.6 811.9 1.482 1. 519 . 155 . 153 .145 . 145 1. 008 1.017 0.072 0.084 .074 .089 .094 .079 .088 . 103 .094 . 110 .093 . 110 .095 . 112 . 116 . 123 . 142 . 136 . 146 . 136 . 150 . 140 i Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinaocial corporate business in 1972 dollars. * This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. » Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. ComOutput penper sation hour per of all hour employ- of all ees employ(1972 ees dollars) (dollars) Profits tax liability Current dollars 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 Corpc rate profi ts with invents3ry valuat ion and capit al consuniption £idjustmen ts Total * With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Compensation of employees l National income Period Propr etors' mcom e with inventor y valuation anc capital consurnption adjust ments Farm 1967 1968 1969_ _ 1970 1971_ _ 1972_ 1973 1974___ 1975 1976_ „ 1977_ _ _ _ 1 Profits > with inv entory valualbion ad justment and ^without c£tpital consum ption adjiistment Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment Total Total Capital consumption adjustment Net interest 12. 1 12. 0 13. 9 13. 9 14. 3 18. 0 32. 0 25.4 23. 5 18.4 20. 2 48. 9 51.4 52. 3 51.2 53. 4 58. 1 60.4 60.9 63. 5 70.2 79. 5 19. 4 18. 6 18. 1 18. 6 20. 1 21. 5 21. 6 21.4 22.4 22. 5 22. 5 79.3 85.8 81. 4 67.9 77.2 92. 1 99. 1 83.6 95.9 127. 0 144. 2 75. 6 82. 1 77.9 66.4 76.9 89. 6 97.2 86. 5 107. 9 141. 4 159. 1 77.3 85. 6 83.4 71.5 82. 0 96. 2 115.8 126.9 120. 4 155. 9 173. 9 -1.7 -3.4 -5.5 5. 1 -5.0 -6.6 -18.6 -40.4 -12. 4 -14. 5 -14.8 2.5 1.9 -2.9 -12.0 -14. 4 -14. 9 24. 3 26.8 30.8 37.5 42.8 47.0 52.3 69. 0 78. 6 84. 3 95.4 107. 9 140. 5 165. 8 199. 7 19.4 20. 0 16. 5 25. 1 76. 1 78.9 80. 8 82. 3 22. 5 22. 4 22.4 22.7 129.9 143.7 154. 8 148. 2 144. 5 158. 5 169.9 163.5 164.8 175. 1 177. 5 178. 3 -20. 3 -16. 6 -7.7 -14.8 -14. 6 -14.8 -15.0 -15. 3 91.7 93. 7 97.3 99.0 _ _ 1, 603. 1 1, 241. 0 1, 688. 1 1, 287. 8 1, 314. 7 21. 9 24.0 23. 5 83. 1 86. 1 89. 7 22.8 22. 2 24. 4 132. 6 163.4 148.7 180. 6 172. 1 205. 5 -23.5 -24. 9 -20.9 -16. 1 -17.2 -19. 3 101.7 104.6 107. 0 _ 1, 447. 5 1, 499. 3 1, 537. 6 I, 576. 9 IV in> Corpor ate profit 3 with inv entory va luation and capital co nsumptio n adjustm ents 471.9 655.8 714. 4 519. 8 571.4 767.9 798.4 609. 2 650. 3 858. 1 715. 1 951. 9 799.2 1, 064. 6 875.8 1, 136. 0 931. 1 1, 215. 0 1, 359. 2 1, 036. 8 15 515. 3 1, 153. 4 _ _ 1977: I II_ III 1978:1 II Nonfarm Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment 1, 1, 1, 1, Includes employer contributions for social Insurance. (See also p. 5.) 3. 7 3.7 3.5 1.5 .3 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nondura ble goods Durable goo ds Total personal consumption expenditures Total durablel goods Motor vehicles and parts 1967____ 490.4 1968 535.9 1969 579. 7 1970 618.8 1971 668.2 1972 733.0 1973 809. 9 1974___ _ _ 889.6 1975 979. 1 1976 1, 090, 2 1977 1, 206. 5 69.6 80.0 85. 5 84. 9 97. 1 111. 2 123. 7 122. 0 132. 6 156. 6 178. 4 29. 7 35.8 37. 7 34.9 43. 8 50.6 55. 2 48. 0 53.4 69. 7 81. 5 29. 5 32. 6 35. 0 36. 7 39.4 44. 8 50. 7 54.9 58. 0 63. 9 71. 3 212. 6 230.4 247. 0 264. 7 277. 7 299.3 333.8 376. 3 408. 9 442. 6 479.0 1, 167. 7 1, 188. 6 1, 214. 5 1, 255. 2 173.2 175. 6 177.4 187.2 81. 3 81. 2 79. 5 84. 0 68. 0 69.9 72. 0 75. 3 1978:1 1, 276. 7 II 1, 322. 9 III *_ _ 1, 354. 5 183. 5 197.8 199. 3 84. 1 92.5 90. 0 72. 1 76. 5 78. 6 Period 1977:1 II !!!____ IV 1 Total Includes other items not shown separately. Furniture and household equipment Total nondurablel goods Retail sales of new pa ssenger cars(nlillions of uilits) Services Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil 109. 6 118. 3 126. 1 136.3 140.6 150. 4 168. 1 189.8 209. 6 225.8 245.2 38.2 41.8 45. 1 46. 6 50.5 55. 1 61. 3 65. 3 70. 1 75.7 81. 5 17. 0 18.4 20. 4 22. 0 23.4 24.9 27.8 36. 4 39. 5 42. 8 46. 5 208. 1 225.6 247.2 269. 1 293. 4 322. 4 352.3 391.3 437. 5 491. 0 549.2 465.9 473. 6 479. 7 496. 9 237. 244. 246. 252. 5 5 4 6 78.5 79. 3 81. 4 86.7 46. 1 46. 2 46. 0 47. 5 528. 6 539.4 557. 5 571. 1 9. 2 8.9 9. 0 2.3 2.0 2.0 501. 4 519. 3 529. 4 257. 7 267.8 272. 0 82.9 87.5 90.2 48. 3 49. 1 50. 8 591.8 605. 8 625.8 8. 7 10. 0 9. 3 2. 1 2. 1 2. 0 Food Domestics 7. 6 8.6 8. 5 7. 1 8.7 9.3 9. 7 7. 5 7. 1 8. 6 9. 1 9.4 Imports 0.8 1. 0 1. 1 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.8 1. 4 1. 6 1.5 2. 1 1. 9 Source : Department of Commerce. Bureau of Economic Analysis. SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $8.3 billion (annual rate) in September following revised increases of $8.5 billion in August and $23.1 billion in July. Wages and salaries rose $4.3 billion in September, compared with $1.9 billion in August. Farm proprietors' income was unchanged from its revised August level, while all other major types of income rose. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,000 1,800 1,600 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 600 400 400 OTHER INCOME „„„„„.«»>' ,„..•••*""' ,„„,»««*"" 200 200 TRANSFER PAYMENTS 100 •100 80 80 60 60 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1976 1975 t i..t i t ( t i* t 1 1 1977 M M t.. I t t i LI 1978 *SEASONAUY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Wage Rental Total Other Proprietc)rs* income s income and Transfer Divi- Personal labor 1 2 personal salary interest payof dends income disburseincome income ments 5 Nonfarm persons 4 Farm l ments Less: PerNonsonal confarm tributions personal for social income 6 insurance 801.3 859. 1 _ . 942.5 1, 052. 4 1, 154. 9 1, 255. 5 1, 380. 9 1, 529. 0 546. 5 579.4 633.8 701.3 764.6 805. 9 890. 1 983.6 32.0 36.2 42.0 48.7 55.6 65. 1 77.0 90.4 13. 9 14.3 18.0 32.0 25.4 23. 5 18.4 20. 2 51.2 53.4 58. 1 60.4 60. 9 63. 5 70.2 79.5 18.6 20. 1 21. 5 21. 6 21.4 22.4 22. 5 22. 5 22.9 23.0 24.6 27.8 31.0 31. 9 37.9 43. 7 64.3 69.3 74. 6 84. 1 103.0 115.5 126. 3 141.2 79.9 94. 1 104. 1 118.9 140.8 178.2 193.9 208. 8 28. 0 30.8 34.2 42.2 47.7 50. 5 55. 5 61.0 780.7 838.0 917.3 1, Oil. 9 1, 119. 3 1, 220. 8 1, 349. 5 1, 494. 4 1, 556. 9 1, 577. 0 1, 592. 7 1, 609. 2 1, 000. 4 1, 014. 1 1, 022. 3 1, 027. 3 93.5 94.8 96. 1 97.3 18.5 22. 1 24. 6 28.5 81.0 81. 4 82.2 83.2 22. 4 22. 4 22.6 22. 9 44. 4 45. 1 45. 5 48.3 145. 1 145.3 145. 5 147. 3 213.3 214. 2 216.5 217. 2 61. 6 62. 4 62. 6 62. 8 1, 523. 9 1, 540. 1 1, 553. 1 1, 565. 5 1, 615. 5 1978: Jan 1, 625. 0 Feb Mar 1, 646. 3 1, 669. 4 Apr 1, 682. 1 May June 1, 695. 7 July— 1, 718. 8 Aug* — 1, 727. 3 Sept*__ 1, 735. 6 1, 038. 3 1, 047. 4 1, 066. 6 1, 083. 9 1, 088. 4 1, 098. 4 1, 108. 2 1, 110. 1 1, 114. 4 98. 7 100.0 101. 3 102.7 104. 0 105. 4 106.7 107.9 109. 1 25.6 21. 5 18. 6 22.0 24. 8 25. 3 24. 0 23.3 23. 3 82.0 83. 0 84. 4 85.5 86. 1 86.7 88.4 90. 1 90. 5 23.0 22. 8 22. 6 22. 3 22. 1 22. 1 24. 3 24. 4 24. 5 46.8 47.0 47. 2 47. 4 48.0 49.0 49.2 50. 3 50.7 149.6 151. 4 153.3 154. 8 156. 5 157.6 159. 2 160.9 162.5 218. 1 219. 0 220. 3 219. 7 221. 3 220.8 229.0 230. 5 231. 1 66.5 67.0 68. 0 68. 9 69. 0 69.6 70.3 70.3 70.5 1, 574. 7 1, 588. 3 1, 612. 5 1, 631. 9 1, 641. 8 1, 654. 7 1, 679. 0 1, 688. 0 1, 696. 2 1970 1971 1972___ 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1977: Sept___ Oct Nov Dec 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. a Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workmen's compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items. s With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. * With capital consumption adjustment. s Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. 8 Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Recs! per disposable Income OF again in the third quarter. (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RXllO SCALEJ 1,600 1,600 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE INCOME 3,000 2,000 2,000 1970 1978 1971 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE | Period COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS T ,£kC<5 * Personal Pertax sonal and income nontax payments Equals : Disposable persona] income Less: Personal outlays 1 Per ccapita dispc>sable persona J income Equals : Personal saving Current dollars Bi lions of d ollars 1969 1970 1971__ 1972__ 1973^ 1974 1975__ 1976__ 1977 1972 dollars Per ca]>ita per&3nsumption exp enditures Current dollars 1972 dollars Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of disposable personal income 1.5 3.0 2.6 3.3 5.9 -2. 2 1.3 2.8 3.3 5.6 7.4 7. 7 6.2 7.8 7.3 7. 7 5. 7 5. 1 202, 677 204, 878 207, 053 208, 846 210, 410 211, 945 213, 566 215, 191 216, 856 Population (thou-2 sands) Do] lars 630. 4 745.8 115. 4 595. 3 801.3 115. 3 685.9 635. 4 859. 1 116.3 742.8 685. 5 .._ 942. 5 141. 2 801. 3 751. 9 1, 052. 4 150. 8 901.7 831. 3 1, 154. 9 170. 3 984.6 913. 0 1, 255. 5 168.8 1, 086. 7 1, 003. 0 __ 1, 380. 9 196. 5 1, 184. 4 1, 116. 3 1, 529. 0 226. 0 1, 303. 0 1, 236. 1 35. 1 50.6 57. 3 49. 4 70.3 71. 7 83. 6 68. 0 66. 9 3, 111 3,348 3, 588 3 ? 837 4,285 4, 646 5,088 5, 504 6,009 3,515 3,619 3,714 3,837 4,062 3,973 4,025 4, 136 4,271 2, 860 3,020 3,227 3,510 3,849 4, 197 4, 584 5, 066 5,564 3,234 3,265 3,342 3,510 3,648 3, 589 3,627 3,808 3,955 Seas onally ad; usted anrmal rates !____ 1, 470. 7 222.7 II— 1, 508. 6 223. 3 III.. 1, 543. 7 224, 6 IV. _ 1, 593. 0 233. 3 1, 248. 0 1, 285. 3 1, 319. 1 1, 359. 6 1, 195. 8 1, 217. 8 1, 244. 8 1, 285. 9 1978:1.... 1, 628. 9 237. 3 1, 391. 6 1, 309. 2 II... 1, 682. 4 249. 1 1, 433. 3 1, 357. 0 III*. 1, 727. 2 262.5 1, 464. 7 1, 390. 2 52. 2 67. 5 I 74. 3 73.7 5,772 5,934 6,077 6,250 4, 185 4,241 4,293 4, 365 5,401 5,487 5,595 5,770 3, 916 | 3, 922 3, 953 4,030 1. 1 5. 5 5. 0 6.9 4. 2 5. 3 5. 6 5.4 216, 216, 217, 217, 82.4 76.3 74.4 6,387 6, 566 6,696 4,370 4, 399 4,418 5,859 6,060 6, 192 4,009 4, 060 4, 086 .5 2. 7 1.7 5. 9 5. 3 5. 1 217, 897 218, 290 218, 745 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). 2 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1 through 1973 a nd are of quarterly data beginning 1974. Quarterly data are average for the period. 206 603 073 541 Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the third quarter, according to preliminary estimates, net farm income before inventory adjustment fell $1.5 billion (annual rate) while income after inventory adjustment fell $0.5 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* {RATIO SCALE) 120 120 100 100 GROSS FARM INCOME BEFORE INVENTORY ADJUSTMENT 80 80 60 60 NET INCOME AFTER INVENTORY ADJUSTMENT 40 40 \ f 20 20 V 10 10 1971 1970 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Personsil income received by tota ! farm population Income r(jceived fix>m farmin g Gross income beJ 'ore inven tory adjustnlent Period 58.6 60.6 70. 1 95.5 100. 0 96.9 104. 1 108. 1 108. 1 106.7 102.7 114.8 Gas b. receipts from inarketings Livestock Total Crops and products Billioiis of dolla rs 50.5 29.6 21. 0 52.9 30.6 22.3 35. 7 61. 2 25.5 87. 1 41. 1 45.9 92.4 41.4 51. 1 88.2 43. 0 45. 1 46. 2 94.5 48.3 96. 1 47.6 48.5 97.6 51.3 46.3 95. 7 46. 6 49. 1 91.3 47.8 43. 5 99.6 49.5 50. 1 115.8 122.5 121. 0 102.2 109.0 108. 0 From From From all farm nonfarm m i I Ji sources sources sources lotal 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1977:1 _ _ _ II III___ IV— 27.5 28.8 34.6 48.9 45. 2 44.5 41.2 43.0 1978:1 II III* 1 13.0 13.5 16.9 29. 2 23.4 21.9 16.9 18.3 14.5 15.3 17.8 19.7 21.8 22. 7 24. 4 24. 7 Cash receipts from marketings, Government payments, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. *1 Inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year. Based on Census of Agriculture definition of a farm. The number of farms is held constant within a year. 34-990 O—T8 52. 7 57.5 58. 5 49.5 51.5 49.5 4 Net t<3 farm oper ators Production expenses Net incc>me per farm zifter iiiventory ad justme ttt3 Before inventory adjustment, After inventory adjust-2 ment 44.4 47.4 52.3 65.6 72.2 75.9 83.0 88.0 87.5 87.0 86.0 91.4 14. 1 13.2 17.8 29.9 27. 7 21. 1 21. 1 20. 1 20.6 19.7 16.7 23.4 14. 2 14.6 18.7 33. 3 26. 1 24.5 18.8 20.6 19.6 20.2 16.8 25.5 4,800 5,040 6, 530 11, 810 9, 350 8,850 6,850 7,590 7,240 7,460 6,210 9,420 93. 5 96.0 96.0 22. 3 26.5 25.0 22. 3 24.5 24.0 9S 140 Current 1967 dollars dollars 4 Do! lars 8, 320 8,950 Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index. Source: Department of Agriculture. 4, 130 4, 160 5,210 8,870 6,330 5, 490 4,020 4, 180 4,090 4, 130 3,390 5,080 4,410 4, 730 4 ? 530 CORPORATE PROFITS In the second quarter, profits before tax rose $33.4 billion while after-tax profits rose $18.4 billion. About one-fourth of the increase was due to a rebound from the effects of the severe weather and coal strike in the first quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 240 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 240 40 40 - 1971 1979 SOURCE.- DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] )ry vakuition Profit ,s (before tax) wit i invent( adjustn lent l Profits after tax Dome 3tic indu stries Period IS onfinan*3ial Total 2 Total 1967 1968 1969 1970 _ _ 1971 1972 __ 1973___ _ _ _ 1974 _ _ 1975 1976 1977 1977: I II III IV 1978: I_ _ II III*>__ 75.6 82. 1 77.9 66.4 76.9 89. 6 97.2 86.5 107.9 141.4 159. 1 144. 5 158. 5 169. 9 163.5 148. 7 180.6 72.6 78.9 74.2 62.6 72.4 84. 7 90. 4 76.9 101. 8 133. 2 149.5 134. 8 148. 1 159.5 155.6 139.2 168.9 Financial Total3 Manufacturmg Wholesale and retail trade 63.6 68. 5 62. 9 50. 1 58. 2 69. 3 74. 1 62.5 88.9 115.6 128.6 115. 1 128. 1 137. 6 133.7 116.6 144. 6 37.9 41. 2 36. 8 27. 1 32. 4 40. 6 44. 1 36. 6 48. 3 65.6 74.7 66.4 77.4 74.7 80.2 69.8 87. 8 8. 9 10. 1 10. 1 9.4 11.7 13. 3 14.7 12.9 20.7 24. 0 24.0 20.6 22. 8 30. 6 22. 1 16.7 22. 0 9. 0 10. 4 11. 3 12. 6 14. 1 15. 4 16. 2 14. 4 13.0 17.5 20.9 19. 7 19. 9 21. 9 21. 9 22.7 24.3 1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 8 1 Includes 1 Profits before tax Tax liability Total Dividends Undistributed profits 77.3 85.6 83. 4 71.5 82.0 96. 2 115.8 126.9 120. 4 155.9 173.9 164.8 175. 1 177.5 178.3 172. 1 205. 5 32. 5 39. 4 39.7 34.5 37.7 41.5 48.7 52. 4 49.8 64.3 71. 8 68. 3 72.3 72.8 73. 9 70.0 85.0 44.9 46. 2 43.8 37.0 44. 3 54.6 67. 1 74. 5 70.6 91.7 102. 1 96. 5 102.8 104.8 104.4 102. 1 120.5 _ 20. 1 21.9 22.6 22. 9 23.0 24.6 27. 8 31. 0 31.9 37.9 43. 7 41.5 42. 7 44. 1 46. 3 47.0 48. 1 50. 1 24. 7 24.2 21. 2 14. 1 21.3 30.0 39. 3 43.6 38. 7 53. 8 58.4 55.0 60. 1 60.6 58. 1 55. 1 72.4 rest of the world, not shown separately. Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Inventory valuation adjustment -1.7 -3.4 -5.5 -5. 1 — 5. 0 -6.6 -18.6 -40.4 -12.4 -14. 5 -14. 8 -20.3 -16.6 -7.7 -14.8 -23.5 -24.9 — 20 9 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to preliminary estimates for the third quarter, business fixed investment rose $5.3 billion (annual rate) as nonresidential construction outlays rose $2.9 billion and producers' durable equipment purchases increased $2.4 billion. Residential investment outlays increased $3.5 billion. Inventory investment amounted to $17.6 billion, down $2.5 billion from the second quarter level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 180 380 -GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT- -NONRESlDEhtflAL FIXED INVESTMENT - 1XA 340 140 300 PRODUCERS' DURAB LE EQUIPMENT 19ft 260 - ^>* ^ r^^ - inn 220 S^ - - 200 180 QA 130 RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTAdENT 1*5 A. /* STRUCTURES _ BILLIONS OF DOLLARS11'(RATIO SCALE) /** ZA 110 1 Art 100 90 y *s ^ I *l _ r on 70 - y < i i. 1975 I I I I I I - 1 1 1 i l l BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 40 -CHANGE IN BUSINESS INN'ENTORIES - <"~Xis~^ -/" 20 _ -20 i i i I ^—* * — ACl I l 1 I* 1 I I I I 1978 1977 1976 1 1979 I I 1975 1 1 f 1976 \ i i i 1977 1 I 1 1 I 1979 1978 * SEASON ALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Noriresidential fixed investmc3nt Gross private domestic investment Period 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 _ ___ _ _ _ _ ___ 1977:1 II III IV __ 1978:1 II _ _ nil* Struc tures Total Total Nonfarm Total Nonfarm Prn Total Nonfarm struc— tures Farm ducers* durstrucable tures equipment Change in business inv entories Total Nonfarm 120.8 131.5 146.2 140.8 160. 0 188.3 220. 0 214. 6 190.9 243.0 297.8 82. 1 89.3 98.9 100.5 104. 1 116.8 136.0 150. 6 150.2 164. 6 190.4 29. 5 31. 6 35.7 37. 7 39. 3 42.5 49.0 54. 5 53.8 57.3 63.9 28. 2 30. 4 34.3 36. 1 37. 8 41. 1 46.9 51. 8 51.3 54.7 61.0 52. 6 57.7 63.3 62.8 64. 7 74.3 87. 0 96. 2 96.4 107. 3 126. 5 48.0 53. 4 58.9 58. 1 59.9 69. 1 80. 1 88. 2 87.4 97.5 116. 7 28.6 34.5 37. 9 36. 6 49.6 62.0 66. 1 55, 1 51.5 68.2 91. 9 27.2 33. 1 36.3 35. 1 47.9 60.3 64. 3 52.7 49.5 65.8 88.9 0.7 .6 .7 .6 .7 .7 .6 1.2 .9 1. 1 1. 5 0.7 .8 .9 .9 1. 0 1. 1 1. 2 1.2 1. 1 1. 3 1. 5 10. 1 7.7 9.4 3.8 6.4 9.4 17. 9 8.9 -10. 7 10. 2 15. 6 9.4 7.6 9.2 3. 7 5. 1 8. 8 14. 7 10. 8 -14. 3 12. 2 15. 0 272.5 295. 6 309.7 313. 5 180. 187. 193. 200. 6 2 5 3 59.3 63.4 65. 4 67.4 56.4 60.4 62. 7 64.5 121.4 123.8 128. 1 132.8 111.0 113. 8 118. 6 123.4 81. 6 91.4 94.3 100.2 78. 6 88.4 91.2 97. 5 1. 6 1. 6 1. 6 1. 2 1. 4 1. 4 1. 5 1. 6 10. 3 17. 0 21.9 13. 1 11. 1 16. 5 22.0 10.4 322. 7 345.4 351.7 205. 6 220. 1 225.4 68. 5 76. 6 79.5 65. 2 73.4 76.6 137. 1 143.5 145.9 127. 2 132.9 134.9 100.3 105. 3 108. 8 97.3 102. 1 105. 5 1. 3 1. 4 1. 5 1.7 1.8 1.7 16.7 20. 1 17.6 16.9 22. 1 18.6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Prodiicers' dur able equip ment Resid ential fix ed inves tment EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Business plans to increase capital spending 12.3 percent in 1978, according to the Commerce Department survey conducted in late July and August. Spending in 1977 was 12.7 percent above the 1976 level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 180 BILUONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALQ 180 SEASONAL!* ADJUSTED ANNUAl RATES 160 160 140 140 TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 X""" Himit**** •-+» MANUFACTURING 40 20 40 20 1970 1972 1971 1974 1973 1975 1976 1977 1978 V $EE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Starts (3f plant and eqilipment proi<3CtS* E3Ependiturcjs for plan t and equipment Total1 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 4 1978 N<mmanuf acturing Mi inufaeturi ng Period 81. 21 88.44 99.74 112. 40 112. 78 120. 49 135. 80 Total Durable goods 29.99 31.35 38.01 46.01 47.95 52.48 60. 16 14. 15 15.64 19.25 22.62 21.84 23.68 27.77 Nondurable goods Total 8.00 15.30 17.00 18.71 20.55 20. 14 22. 28 25.80 28.95 17.71 Commercial and 2 other 18.05 20. 07 21.40 22.05 20.60 20. 99 22.97 25.07 Trans- Public Mining porta- utilition ties 51.22 57.09 61.73 66.39 64.82 68.01 75.64 84.49 4.76 Communication Public utilities Manufacturing 28. 00 35.21 47. 57 52. 49 48. 24 51. 05 66.73 22.22 28. 60 38. 13 45. 74 34. 50 29. 66 32.54 __ 162. 60 68.01 31. 66 15.84 15.72 18.76 23.39 26. 11 28.81 32. 39 36.35 1977:1 II III IV 130. 16 134.24 140. 38 138. 11 56.43 59.46 63. 02 61.41 26.30 27.26 29. 23 28.19 30. 13 32. 19 33.79 33.22 73.74 74.78 77.36 76.70 4.24 4.49 4.74 4.50 7.29 6.96 6. 85 6.88 25.35 25.29 26. 22 26.23 14. 19 15.32 16.40 15.82 22.67 22.73 23. 14 23.27 15.26 15. 15 19.81 16.54 9.76 3. 79 10. 23 7.99 1978: I II _ _ III * _ _ _ IV*____ 144. 25 150. 76 61.57 67.20 68.66 73.62 28.72 31.40 32. 86 35. 80 36.54 82.68 83.56 86.47 85.36 4.45 4.81 8.46 7.40 27.92 28. 46 29.26 17.07 18. 18 24.76 24.71 17.41 18. 10 7.98 7.78 165. 13 158. 98 32. 11 33.89 39. 72 i Excludes agricultural business; real estate operators; medical, legal, educational, and cultural service; and nonprofit organizations. These figures do not agree precisely with the nonresidentiaf fixed investment data in gross national product estimates, mainly because those data include investment by farmers, professionals, nonprofit institutions, and real estate firms, and certain outlays charged to current account. 10 2. 16 2.42 2.74 3. 18 3.79 4.00 4.50 4. 80 5.07 4.93 5.72 6.03 6.66 7.57 7.45 6.93 8.98 7. 18 30. 22 10.77 11.89 12.85 13.96 12.74 13.30 15.45 43. 44 42. 90 2 Includes trade, service, construction, finance, and insurance. * Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during given period. * Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late July and August 1978. Plans are adjusted when necessary for systematic bias. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE Seasonally adjusted employment increased by 287,000 in September while unemployment increased by 34,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 100 100 CIVILIAN LABOR 90 EMPLOYMENT 80 80 10' UNEMPLOYMENT \ I I t M I I M M t I t I t I t I M I I M MI I t I t t 1970 1971 1972 i IT t i I i i i 1.1 I.I M I I I M I t L.t.i ( I t 1 t t 1974 1973 1975 i it MI ( 1976 1977 *16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Period Noninstitutional population 148, 263 150, 827 153, 449 156, 048 158, 559 1977: Sept.. Oct.. Nov.. Dec.. 159, 114 159, 334 159, 522 159, 736 1978: Jan*__ Feb__ Mar__ Apr.. MayJune.. JulyAug__ Sept- 159, 937 160, 128 160, 313 160, 504 160, 713 160, 928 161, 148 161, 348 161, 570 Civilian Unememploy- ployment ment Total labor force Civilian (includ- labor force ing Armed Forces) Unempl<Dyment Civilian eiuploymerit Total Agricultural N onagri cultural Part-time ecoTotal for nomic 1 reasons Total 15 weeks and over Labor force participation rate (perx\ 2o cent) 91, 040 93, 240 94, 793 96, 917 99, 534 88, 714 91, Oil 92, 613 94, 773 97, 401 84, 409 85, 935 84, 783 87, 485 90, 546 3,452 80, 957 2,311 2,709 3,492 82, 443 3,490 3,380 81, 403 3,272 3,297 84, 188 3,244 87, 302 3,297 Seascmally adj usted 4,304 5,076 7,830 7,288 6, 855 812 937 2,483 2,339 1,911 61.4 61.8 61.8 62. 1 62.8 91, 247 92, 230 92f 473 92, 623 6,437 99, 887 6,221 100, 205 6,346 101, 009 5,880 101, 048 97,756 98, 071 98, 877 98, 919 91, 91, 92, 92, 088 383 214 609 3, 199 3,243 3,357 3,323 87, 889 88, 140 88, 857 89, 286 3,306 3,263 3,285 3,220 6,668 6, 688 6,663 6,310 1,834 1,848 1,829 1,797 62.8 62.9 63.3 63. 3 91, 053 91, 185 91, 964 93, 180 93, 851 95, 852 96, 202 96, 116 95, 041 6,897 6,739 6,479 5,685 5,457 6,326 6,438 5,931 5,797 101, 228 101, 217 101, 536 101, 902 102, 374 102, 671 102, 734 102, 671 102, 993 99, 107 99, 093 99, 414 99, 784 100, 261 100, 573 100, 618 100, 549 100, 870 92, 881 93, 003 93, 266 93, 801 94, 112 94, 819 94, 425 94, 581 94, 868 3,354 3,242 3,310 3,275 3,235 3,473 3,387 3,360 3,411 89, 527 89, 761 89, 956 90, 526 90, 877 91, 346 91, 038 91, 221 91, 457 2, 986 3,193 3, 164 3,327 3,243 3,458 3,330 3,294 3,231 6, 226 6,090 6, 148 5,983 6, 149 5,754 6, 193 5, 968 6,002 1,688 1,568 1,463 1, 384 1,358 1,231 1,292 1,215 1,293 63.3 63.2 63.3 63.5 63.7 63.8 63.8 63.6 63.7 4,304 5,076 7,830 7,288 6,855 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find full-time work, etc. 2 Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over. 1978 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 84, 409 85, 935 84, 783 87, 485 90, 546 Uiaad justed 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 i (t i i ii * Beginning 1978, data not strictly comparable with earlier data because of revisions in the household survey, which added about 250,000 to labor force and to employment. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In September, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased slightly to 6.0 percent. Unemployment among blacks fell to 11.2 percent, a new low for the year. •PERCENT* (SEASONALLY PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) ADJUSTED) 10 ^UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Total (all civilian workers) Period 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1977: Sept Oct Nov Dec 1978: Jan __ 6. 1 Feb Mar Apr __ May_ June July Aug___ Sept___ 4.9 5.6 8.5 7.7 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.4 6.3 _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ 1 6.2 6.0 Unernployme at rate ( percent c>f civiliaii labor f<>rce in g roup) I3y select ed group s By s>ex and abge By race Men 20 years and over 3.2 3.8 6.7 5. 9 5.2 4.7 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.5 4.5 6. 1 4. 2 4. 2 6. 2 4. 1 4. 1 5.7 5.9 6.0 3.9 4.0 Women 20 years and over 4.8 5.5 8.0 7.4 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.6 6. 1 5.7 5.8 5.8 6.3 6. 1 6.5 6. 1 6.0 Both sexes 16-19 years 14.5 16.0 19.9 19. 0 17.7 18.3 17. 3 17.2 15.6 16.0 17.4 17.3 16.9 16. 5 14.2 16. 3 15. 6 16.6 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. 12 White 4.3 5.0 7.8 7.0 6.2 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.2 5. 2 4.9 5.3 5. 2 5.3 ExpeFullBlack rienced wage Housetime hold and and other salary heads workers workers 8.9 9.9 13.9 13. 1 13. 1 13. 1 13. 7 13.7 12.7 12.7 11. 8 12.4 11. 8 12. 3 11.9 12.5 11. 7 11.2 4. 5 5.3 8.2 7.3 6.6 6.3 6.5 6.3 6. 0 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.5 5. 6 5.4 5.7 5. 5 5.6 2.9 3.3 5.8 5. 1 4.5 4.4 4. 4 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.6 3. 9 3.7 3.7 4.3 5. 1 8. 1 7.3 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.2 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.4 5. 6 5.2 5.7 5. 5 5.5 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Parttime workers 7.9 8. 6 10.3 10. 1 9. 8 Labor rorce time lost (per-1 cent) 5.2 6. 1 9. 1 8.9 8.6 9.6 9.6 9.2 8.8 8.8 8.3 7.6 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.3 6.6 6.4 6.8 8.8 6.5 9.7 9.6 9.6 8. 9 8. 6 6. 6 SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS The increase in unemployment in September was accompanied by a sharp increase in the proportion of unemployed persons who were reentrants to the labor force and a decrease in the proportion of new entrants and job losers. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT 60 60 LESS THAN 5 WEEKS 40 40 5-14 WEEKS \ REENTRANTS Vs^*// 20 27 WEEKS >AND OVER 20 JOB LEAVERS NEW ENTRANTS 1975 1976 15-26 WEEKS 1977 1975 1978 1976 1977 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. Period Unemployment (thousands) 1978 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] ri j j Percen t distrib ution of unemPerceri t distribution of unemotate pirograms Insured unemplo yment b y duraticm 1 pl oyment 1 Dy reasori i ployment, all 27 Insured Less regular unem5-14 Initial weeks 15-26 Reen- New Job Job than 5 weeks weeks enproand losers leavers trants trants ploy- claims weeks grams2 over ment (unadjusted) Special unemployment benefit claims * (unadjusted) We<;kly aver age, thoussands 1973 4,304 1974 5,076 1975 7,830 1976 7,288 1977 6,855 1977: Sept.. 6,668 Oct___ 6,688 Nov.. 6,663 Dec._. 6,310 1978: Jan. _. 6,226 Feb__. 6,090 Mar_. 6, 148 Apr— - 5,983 May__ 6, 149 June. . 5,754 July... 6, 193 Aug*. 5, 968 Sept*. 6,002 38.7 43.4 55.4 49.8 45.3 45. 3 45. 5 44. 7 43. 4 42.9 41.6 40.3 41.2 42. 5 40.6 41.3 42.4 40. 1 15.7 14.9 10. 4 12.2 13.0 12. 9 13. 1 13.3 13. 9 13.6 14.7 13.9 14. 5 13.5 14.7 14. 1 14. 0 14.2 30.7 28.4 23. 8 26.0 28. 1 27. 9 28.6 28.5 29.8 29.0 29.4 30.9 28. 9 29. 2 30. 6 30.4 28.8 32.2 14. 9 13.3 10.4 12. 1 13.7 13.9 12. 8 13.6 13.0 14. 5 14.2 14. 9 15.4 14.8 14. 1 14.2 14.8 13. 5 51.0 50.6 37. 0 38.3 41.7 41. 1 41.4 42.4 41.3 43. 2 43.3 45.8 46.8 48. 1 46. 4 49. 0 46.8 46.4 i Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding. i Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UGFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include FSB (Federal supplemental benefits) and SUA (special unemployment assistance). 30. 1 31. 0 31. 3 29.6 30.5 31. 8 31. 3 30. 3 30.4 29.8 30.5 30. 5 29.9 29.6 32.6 30. 0 33. 0 "32. 1 11.0 11. 1 16. 5 13. 8 13. 1 13.4 13. 6 13.9 14.8 13. 8 15.0 12.4 12.0 11.2 11. 1 10.8 10.5 11. 4 7.8 7. 3 15.2 18.3 14.8 13.7 13.7 13.3 13.5 13.2 11.2 11.3 11.2 11. 1 9.9 10.2 9.7 10. 1 1,632 2,262 3,992 2,968 2,473 2,664 2, 624 2,602 2,516 2,461 2,524 2,406 2,210 2, 167 2, 194 2,392 2, 550 2,361 246 363 478 382 375 368 361 354 346 344 369 326 330 331 348 377 361 330 1,793 2,558 4,943 3, 822 3, 112 2,643 2, 649 2,853 3,226 3,781 3,638 3,212 2,659 2,369 2,297 2,581 2,394 2,063 1,173 1, 152 572 412 364 315 259 192 143 102 60 36 21 s FSB and SUA. These programs started January 1975 and regular reporting began March 1975. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagrieultural employment as measured by the payroll survey dropped by 58,000 in September. The largest decline occurred in State and local government employment, which fell by 84,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS9 90 MILLIONS OF "PERSONS' (ENLARGED SCALE) •—' ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE 18 80 SERVICES 16 70 60 GOVERNMENT ,,..••••**'"' 14 SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 22 MANUFACTURING 50 . \ 18 40 1 1 i 1 1 j } j i j i i i I i 1 1 1 1 1 i i j i i iii i i GOODS^PRODUCING „ INDUSTRIES 30 p>—; i ,„„„,»«»"«' MUItM«M»tl*t"1*' ^ 20 ; JLJ4j4 1975 1977 1976 [M I 1 1 l l 1 M 1 1979 1978 1 I I 1 f ] 1 I 1 y 1 1 1 t i ( 1 11 1 1 1975 1976 1977 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LA8OR J Feriod 1973 . 1974 „ 1975--. 1976... 1977 1977: Sept- _ Oet___ Nov__ Dec— 1978: Jan. __ Feb... Mar__ Apr May__ June.. July- _ Aug ®Sept ^_ Total nonagricultural employ- Total 2 meat Construction 24, 893 24, 794 22, 600 23, 352 24, 288 24, 441 24, 507 24, 617 24, 626 24, 648 24, 724 24, 927 25, 313 25, 341 25, 473 25, 501 25, 453 25, 442 4,097 4,020 3,525 3,576 3,833 3,896 3,905 3, 928 3, 955 3, 905 3,901 3, 999 4, 164 4, 175 4, 278 4, 317 4,295 4,275 76, 790 78', 265 76, 945 79, 382 82, 256 82, 973 83, 199 83, 549 83, 719 83, 871 84, 188 84, 726 85, 418 85, 618 85, 996 86, 033 86, 164 86, 106 1979 Service-pi oducing Industrie5S Trans- Whole- Finance, Gover nment insurportasale ance, Services tion and Non- Total State and and retail durable Federal and Total Durable real public trade goods goods local estate utilities 'Ma nufactur ing 20, 154 20, 077 18, 323 18, 997 19, 647 19, 715 19, 769 19, 849 19, 984 20, 065 20, 139 20, 230 20, 282 20, 297 205 316 20, 302 203 272 20, 282 11, 891 11, 925 10, 688 11, 077 11, 573 11, 637 11, 693 11, 746 11, 851 11,917 11, 986 12, 041 12, 07612, 093 12, 109 12, 138 12, 143 12, 167 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagrieultural establishments who worked during cr received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, sell-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagrieultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they 14 1978 workers;1 seasonally adjusted] CJoods-prc>dueing industries » f ! I Ii i I ! JJX ( f i l l 1 1 1 ! 1 U COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage •Q - COSSJSTRUCTION 262 152 635 920 074 078 076 103 133 148 153 189 206 204 207 164 129 115 51, 897 53, 471 54, 345 56, 030 57, 968 58, 532 58, 692 58, 932 59, 093 59, 223 59, 464 59, 799 60, 105 60, 277 60, 523 60, 532 60, 711 60, 664 4, 656 4,725 4,542 4,582 4,696 4,727 4,721 4,736 4,749 4,758 4,782 4,817 4,847 4,847 4,881 4,827 4, 844 4, 852 16, 607 16, 987 17, 060 17, 755 18, 492 18, 672 18, 733 18, 830 18, 911 18, 991 19, 071 19, 169 19, 252 19, 335 19] 412 19, 469 19, 525 19, 509 4,046 4, 148 4, 165 4,271 4 ? 452 4,487 4,508 4,535 4, 547 4,563 4, 591 4,605 4,623 4, 637 4,670 4,690 4, 711 4, 723 12, 857 13, 441 13, 892 14, 551 15, 249 15, 442 15, 510 15, 568 15, 618 15, 597 15, 670 15, 773 15, 866 15, 896 15, 963 15, 989 16, 072 16, 104 2,663 2,724 2,748 2,733 2,727 2,725 2,728 2,727 2,723 2, 736 2,736 2,739 2,745 2,753 2,772 2,765 2,765 2,766 11, 068 11, 446 11, 937 12, 138 12, 352 12, 479 12, 492 12, 536 12, 545 12, 578 12, 614 12, 696 12, 772 12, 809 12, 825 12, 792 12, 794 12, 710 are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. 2 Includes mining, not shown separately. NOTE.—Series revised. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAIi INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Total private nonagncultural l Period Manufi icturing Total Adjusted h ourly earnirj gs indexa —t Dtal private nonagricjultural Averagje gross hourly <earnings Aver age weekly hours Overtime Percent chtange from a year earlier 4 Index, 1' 367=100 Total private nonagneultural l Manufacturing $3. 19 3.35 3.57 3.82 4.09 4.43 4.83 5.22 5.67 113.2 120.7 129.2 137.5 146.0 157.5 170.7 183.0 196.8 103. 1 103.8 106.5 109.7 109.7 106.6 105.9 107.3 108.4 6.6 6.6 7.0 6.4 6.2 7.9 8.4 7.2 7.5 Current dollars 1967 dollars 8 Current dollars 1967 dollars 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 37.7 37. 1 36.9 37.0 36.9 36.5 36. 1 36. 1 36.0 40.6 39.8 39.9 40.5 40.7 40.0 39.5 40.1 40.3 3.6 3.0 2.9 3.5 3.8 3.3 2.6 3.4 $3.04 3.23 3.45 3.70 3.94 4.24 4.53 4.86 5.24 1977: Sept Oct Nov Dec 35.9 36.1 36.0 35.9 40.3 40.5 40.5 40.5 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 5.31 5.36 5.39 5.41 5.77 5.82 5.85 5.88 199.6 201.5 202. 4 203.5 108.6 109. 2 109.3 109.4 7.3 7.6 7.4 7.4 .6 1.0 .6 .6 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug* Sept* 35.5 35.7 36.0 36. 1 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.8 35.8 39.8 40. 1 40.6 40.8 40.4 40.5 40.5 40.4 40.4 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.6 5.46 5.49 5.54 5.61 5.62 5.66 5.71 5.72 5.75 5.93 5.98 6.01 6.05 6.08 6. 12 6. 18 6.20 6.25 206.0 206.6 208.3 210.3 211.0 212.3 214. 1 214.2 215.4 109.9 109.5 109.5 109.6 109.0 108.7 109.0 108.5 108.3 7.8 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.0 1.0 3. 1 8. 1 8.2 8. 1 7.9 1.7 .6 2.2 3.0 0 -2.8 -.7 1.3 1.0 1. 1 1.2 1.4 .9 .6 .6 .2 -.2 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS—PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average gross weekly earnings Total pri vate nonagricu Itural * Period Current dollars Manufacturing 1967 dollars s Constru ction $104. 38 103. 04 104. 95 109. 26 109. 23 104. 78 101. 45 102. 90 103. 93 $129. 51 133. 33 142. 44 154. 71 166. 46 177. 20 190. 79 209. 32 228. 50 1977: Sept Oct Nov Dec 190. 63 193. 50 194. 04 194. 22 103. 72 104. 93 104. 77 104. 42 232. 53 235. 71 236. 93 238. 14 295. 297. 298. 298. 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug* Sept* 193. 83 195. 99 199. 44 202. 52 201. 76 203. 19 204. 99 204. 78 205. 85 103. 38 103. 86 104. 86 105. 59 104. 21 104. 04 104. 43 103. 74 103. 55 236. 239. 244. 246. 245. 247. 250. 250. 252. 1 Also includes s other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing. 1 Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index. Kevised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978. 34-990 O—78 3 01 80 01 84 63 86 29 48 50 Percent ch*inge from a year e arlier, total prii/ate nonagricu Itural » Current dollars {Durrent dollars\ $114. 61 119. 83 127. 31 136. 90 145. 39 154. 76 163. 53 175. 45 188. 64 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 Wholesale and retail trade 1967 dollars $91. 39 96.02 101. 09 106. 45 111. 76 119. 02 126. 45 133. 79 142. 19 6.4 4.6 6.2 7.5 6.2 6.4 5.7 7.3 7.5 -0.3 -1.3 03 30 48 29 143. 76 145. 62 145. 31 146. 30 7.7 8.3 7.6 7.4 1. 1 284. 69 297. 26 312. 54 315. 93 314. 39 322. 65 323. 02 323. 14 321. 77 147. 48 147. 15 150. 15 151. 80 151. 34 151. 86 153. 64 153. 83 154. 02 7.3 .5 -.2 1.3 1.7 .4 .5 .3 .4 -.4 $181. 54 195. 45 211. 67 221. 19 235. 89 249. 25 266. 08 283. 36 295. 29 6. 1 7.8 8.3 7.5 7.9 8. 1 8.3 7.8 1.9 4. 1 -.0 -4.1 -3.2 1.4 1.0 1.7 .8 .5 4 Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places. * Based on unadjusted data. NOTE.-—Series revised. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, PRIVATE BUSINESS ECONOMY Hours oi 2all pers ons Out][Hit* Period Output per hour of all F)ersons Unit labor CO sts Compe nsation per ] lour 3 Implici t price deflai bor 4 PriPriNonNonPriNonNonNonPrivate Private NonPrivate vate farm farm vate vate farm farm farm farm business business business business business business business business business business business business sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector 1967 == 100; qua rterly dat a season.ally adjus ted 1966___ 1967___ 1968 1969— 98.0 100. 0 105. 1 108. 3 98. 1 100. 0 105. 4 108. 6 100. 3 100.0 101. 7 104.5 100.0 100. 0 102. 1 105.3 97.8 100. 0 103. 3 103.7 98. 1 100.0 103. 2 103. 1 94. 7 100.0 107. 6 115. 1 94. 5 100.0 107. 3 114. 3 96.8 100. 0 104. 1 111. 0 96. 4 100. 0 104. 0 110. 9 97. 2 100.0 103.9 108.8 96. 8 100. 0 104. 0 108. 6 1970 1971 1972 1973___ 1974 107. 3 110.3 117. 6 124.5 121. 5 107.4 110. 2 117. 8 125. 0 121. 9 102.8 102. 3 106. 0 110. 3 110.7 104. 0 103. 7 107. 6 112. 4 112. 9 104.4 107. 8 110.9 112. 8 109. 7 103. 2 106. 3 109. 5 111. 1 108.0 123. 3 131. 5 138.9 150. 0 164. 1 121. 9 129.9 137. 4 147. 8 161.8 118. 1 121. 9 125.2 132. 9 149. 5 118. 1 122. 2 125. 5 133. 0 149.8 113.9 118. 9 123. 1 130. 2 143. 0 114. 0 119. 1 122. 8 127.9 141. 3 1975 1976 1977 118.8 126.5 133.2 118.8 127. 0 133. 6 106. 1 109.0 112. 7 108. 0 111. 4 115.4 112. 0 116. 1 118. 2 110. 0 114. 0 115.8 180. 3 196. 3 213.0 177.8 192.9 209. 3 161. 1 169.2 180. 2 161.6 169.2 180.7 157. 4 165.4 174.9 156.3 164.8 174. 6 1976:111 IV 127. 1 127. 6 127. 7 128. 1 108.8 109. 3 " 111. 3 112. 0 116. 8 116.8 114.7 114.4 198. 5 202.7 194.9 198.8 170.0 173. 6 169.9 173.8 166. 3 168.5 165.7 168. 2 1977: I II III IV 130.5 132. 5 134.2 135. 5 131. 0 133. 0 134. 6 135.8 110.7 112. 9 112. 9 113. 9 113. 4 115. 5 115. 9 116.7 117. 9 117.4 118.9 119. 0 115. 6 115.2 116. 2 116. 4 207. 5 210.4 215.3 218. 8 203.9 207. 1 211. 2 215. 1 176.0 179. 3 181. 1 183.9 176.4 179.8 181. 7 184. 8 170. 6 174.0 176.3 178.4 170. 0 173. 6 176. 4 178. 1 1978: I II III*— 135. 3 138. 7 140.0 136. 1 139.8 141. 0 115. 0 117. 6 117. 4 117. 8 120.6 120.5 117.6 118. 0 119.3 115.5 115. 9 117. 0 225. 1 229. 6 235. 0 221. 4 225. 8 230.6 191. 4 194. 6 197. 0 191.7 194. 7 197. 1 181.3 186.6 189. 9 180. 6 185. 3 188. 9 Perce nt change ; quarter!;y data at seasonal y ad juste d annual rates 5. 5 6. 0 1.9 5. 4 3.0 2. 3 -. 3 1. 7 2.7 3. 3 -.0 2. 1 3.2 3.2 2.3 3. 3 .3 2.5 1.9 3.2 -. 2 7.0 5. 6 7. 6 7.0 6.0 5.8 7.3 6. 5 3.7 3.3 4. 1 6.6 3.4 3. 8 4.0 6.7 3.2 2.9 3.9 4. 7 2.9 3.3 4.0 4. 5 2.8 6.6 -1. 1 2.6 6.9 6. 0 -2.5 -1. 6 -. 4 3.6 4. 1 .4 -1.2 -.3 3.7 4.5 .4 .7 3.2 2.9 1.7 -2.8 .2 2. 9 3. 1 1. 5 -2.8 7.2 6.6 5.7 8.0 9.4 6. 7 6. 6 5.8 7.5 9.5 6.4 3. 2 2.7 6. 1 12. 5 6. 5 3. 5 2.7 6. 0 12. 7 4.7 4. 4 3. 6 5.8 9.8 4.9 4.5 3. 1 4. 1 10.5 -2. 3 6. 5 -2.5 6.9 5. 2 -4. 2 2.7 3.7 -4. 3 3.2 3.9 2.0 3.7 1.6 1.9 3. 6 1.3 9.9 8. 9 8. 1 9.9 8.5 8. 1 7.7 5. 0 6.4 7.9 4. 7 6. 7 10. 1 5. 1 5. 7 10.6 5.4 5.9 1976: III IV 2. 8 2.5 1. 2 0 1.6 1.7 .3 2.3 3.2 __. 1 2. 2 -1. 0 9. 1 8.7 8.4 ' 8. 3 5.8 8.8 6. 1 9.4 4.4 5.4 5.8 6. 1 1977:1 II III IV__,_. 9. 3 6. 5 5. 0 4. 0 9.4 6. 2 5. 0 3. 5 6. 6 8.3 ___, 1 3. 7 6.8 7.7 1.3 3.0 2. 5 -1. 7 5. 1 .4 2. 4 -1. 4 3.7 .5 7.9 5. 8 9. 5 6.7 8.3 6. 5 8. 1 7.6 5.3 7. 6 4.2 6.3 5.8 8. 0 4. 2 7. 1 5.2 8. 2 5.2 4.9 4. 4 8.7 6. 5 4. 0 1978:1 II !!!>___ 10.5 3. 8 -.6 .7 11. 6 3.3 4.0 9. 2 -. 6 3.9 9. 8 -.4 -4. 5 1.2 4.5 -3. 1 1.7 3.7 12. 1 8. 1 9.8 12. 2 8. 2 8.9 17. 4 6. 8 5. 1 15.7 6. 4 5.0 6.7 12. 1 7.3 5.8 10. 8 8. 1 1966___ 1967.. 1968 1969 1970 1971 — 1972___ 1973 1974___ 1975 1976 1977 2.0 5. 1 3.0 -. 9 5. 9 -2.4 5.3 1 2 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars. Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in production, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily -on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed. 4 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. 16 NOTE.—Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Data revised for 1977 and 1978; revised data for earlier periods not yet available. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose 0.5 percent in September, the same as in August. The index for September was 6.5 percent above a year earlier. INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE) 180 JNDBC, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE) 160 UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 160 140 140 UTILITIES 120 120 v\ *"*"»*A MINING 100 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 PERCENT (RATIO SCALE) 100 MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE 90 80 120 70 100 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period 1967 proportion 1972 1973 1974_ 1975. 1976 .. 1977 Total in dustrial produ stion Percent Index, change 1967= from 100 year earlier _ 100. 00 9.2 _ 119.7 8.4 129.8 -.4 129. 3 -8.9 117.8 10.2 129.8 5.6 137. I COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Seasonally adjusted] Indusstry prodiiction indc?xes, 1967 = 100 Miinufacturi ng Utilities Manufa cturing aipacityl ut ilization rate, p«jrcent Federal Reserve ser les ComWharTotal merce2 ton Mate- series manuseries 3 facturrials ing Total Durable Nondurable 87. 95 118.9 129. 8 129. 4 116. 3 129. 5 137. 1 51. 98 113.7 127. 1 125.7 109.3 121.7 129.5 85.97 126.5 133.8 134.6 126. 4 140.9 148. 1 6.86 113. 1 114. 7 115.3 112.8 114.2 117. 8 5.69 139.4 145.4 143.7 146. 0 151.0 156.5 83. 1 87.5 84.2 73. 6 80.2 82. 4 88.0 92. 4 87.7 73.6 80.4 81.9 83 86 83 77 81 83 91.8 97. 1 92.9 80.4 87.5 90.2 82 90.9 82 91. 1 84 90. 1 84 92.5 Mining 1977: Sept Oct Nov Dec 138.5 138.9 139.3 139.7 6.0 6.7 5.9 5.0 139.0 139.4 139.9 140.5 131.7 132.4 132.7 133.4 149.5 149.6 150. 1 150.9 . 118.0 119. 6 118.8 113.4 154. 1 154. 0 154.2 156.7 82.9 82.9 82.9 83.0 82.0 82.4 82.3 81.9 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug * Sept * 138. 8 139.2 140.9 143. 2 143. 9 144. 9 145.9 146.7 147.5 4.9 4.5 4.1 5.2 5. 0 5.2 5.2 6.2 6.5 138. 7 139.4 141.4 143.5 144. 3 145.5 146.6 147.4 148.2 131. 1 131. 5 134.4 136.9 137.6 139. 0 140.8 142. 0 142. 7 149.8 150.6 151.4 153. 2 154. 0 154.9 155.0 155. 3 156. 0 115.0 114.4 119.3 127.2 126.7 128.0 127.3 126. 2 125.4 162.3 163. 5 159.5 156.0 157.0 158.6 159.9 160.6 161. 4 81.7 81.9 82.7 83.7 83.9 84. 3 84.7 84.9 85. 0 81.9 81. 3 81. 9 84.0 84. 5 85. 1 85.7 85.6 86.0 1 Output 1 3 Annual _ as percent of capacity. data are averages of four monthly indexes. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Annual data are averages of quarterly data. 93.6 Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), and Wharton School of Finance. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1967=100, seasonally adjusted] Prod ucts Final I roducts 3 Equip>ment Coiisumer goods Period Total Total Interrrlediate prod ucts NonDurable durable goods goods 7.89 19. 79 110. 1 106. 1 113. 1 118.8 133.8 120.6 146.2 125.6 126.3 135.3 125. 1 121.4 141.4 134. 1 153. 1 139.6 Total Business Total 20.14 100. 1 94.7 103.8 114.5 120.0 110.2 1146 123.2 12.63 107.0 104.1 118.0 134.2 142.4 128.2 136.3 149.2 12.89 112.9 116.7 126.5 137.2 135.3 123. 1 137.2 145.1 Construction supplies 6.42 111. 0 116.8 128.4 139.8 134.5 116.3 132.6 140.8 1967 proportion 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 47.82 105.3 106.3 115.7 124.4 125. 1 118.2 127.2 134.9 27.68 109.0 114.7 124.4 131.5 128.9 124.0 136.2 143.4 1977: Sept Oct Nov Dec 136.8 136. 5 137.0 137.6 144.9 144.9 145.2 145.8 155.6 156.8 155.2 155.8 140.7 140. 1 141.2 141.8 125.6 125.0 125.8 126.2 152.1 152.6 153.5 154.0 146.5 147.8 148.4 150.4 134.9 136.4 138.9 140.5 140.5 141. 1 141.9 143.0 143.4 141.8 143.8 145.9 147.5 147.0 147.0 147.5 148.2 148. 3 146.5 151.2 157.5 161.8 160.2 160.6 160.6 161. 2 160.0 139.9 140.8 141.3 141.8 141.7 141.6 142.3 143.0 143.5 125.4 126.2 129. 1 130.8 131.6 133.0 134.4 135.9 136.7 152.6 154.2 157.4 159.3 160.2 161.8 163.5 165. 2 166.2 151.6 151.4 151.4 152. 1 152.6 154.7 155.5 156.4 157.3 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug*__ Sept 9 . — - _ _ __ Materials Supplementary group: Energy total 109.2 111. 3 122.3 133.9 132.4 115.5 130.6 136.9 12. 23 117.0 119.5 125.2 128.3 125.5 125.5 128.8 132.5 143.2 144.9 146. 5 148.3 137.9 138.9 139.0 138.8 132. 5' 133.0 132.3 129.7 149.2 148.6 147.9 148.5 150.4 152. 1 153.6 155.3 155.9 139.2 138.6 139.9 143.7 145.1 146.4 147.8 148.0 149. 2 132.5 130.0 129.8 133. 1 134.2 135.9 136.3 136.2 136.8 89. 29 [1967=100, seasonally adjusted] Diurable m anufactu res Primarir metals Non- Total Iron and steel Fabricated metal products 1967 proportion 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 6.67 106.6 100.2 112. 1 126.7 123. 1 96.4 108.9 110.2 4. 21 104.7 96. 1 107. 1 122.3 119.8 95.8 104.9 103.4 5.93 102. 4 103.5 112. 1 124.7 124.2 109.9 123.3 130.9 9.16 104.4 100.2 116.0 133.7 140. 1 125. 1 135. 0 144.8 1977: Sept Oct Nov Dec 109. 0 113.5 111.2 111.0 104.6 107.7 104.3 103.8 133.6 133.8 135.8 136.4 107.4 106.2 __ 106. 1 114.3 115.5 117.5 123.0 124. 4 _ 125. 1 99.5 96.3 96.4 109. 0 110.5 114.5 119. 0 120.7 136.9 136.9 138. 1 139.5 140.4 142.3 144.0 145. 4 146.7 Period 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug 9 Sept 9 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System. 18 trical machin— ery Electrical machinery Nomiurable rnanufact ures Transp<srtation equip ment Lumber and products F Apparel products 1.64 Print- Cheming icals Foods and and pub- prodlishing ucts Total Motor vehicles and parts 108. 1 107.7 122.2 143. 1 143.8 116. 5 131. 6 141.9 9.27 89.5 97.9 108.2 118.3 108.7 97.4 110.6 121. 1 4.60 92.3 118.6 135.8 148.8 128.2 111. 1 140.7 159.7 105.6 113. 8 120.8 126. 0 116.2 107.6 125. 1 133.4 3.31 101.4 104.7 109.4 117. 3 114.3 107.6 122.2 124.2 4.72 107.0 107. 1 112. 7 118.2 118.2 113.3 120.6 124.7 7.74 120.4 125.9 143.6 154.5 159.4 147.2 169.3 180.7 8.75 108.9 112.8 116.8 120.9 124.0 123.4 132.3 137.9 147.4 148.9 149.7 151.7 144. 6 144.2 146. 0 147.3 125.5 124.3 122.0 122.2 165.6 168. 4 163.0 161.8 137. 1 135.7 137.5 138. 1 127.7 129.0 125. 1 125.8 124.2 125.7 126.2 127.5 181.3 182.3 183. 1 183.0 138.3 137.3 139.4 140.4 150. 1 150. 1 151. 5 152.2 152.9 154.6 156. 1 157. 2 158.5 144. 0 146.4 149.5 152.3 152.9 154. 1 156.4 157. 1 157.8 116.2 118.4 126. 5 130.5 130. 1 130.4 132. 1 133. 7 133.2 146.6 153. 1 165. 1 171.7 168.3 167.7 169.7 171.0 168.0 138.5 135.5 136.5 136.9 136.5 138.7 138.4 138.6 118.6 121. 1 122.8 126. 1 125.8 126.8 124.6 129.9 128.3 129.1 128.6 128. 2 128.7 130.4 129.8 129.7 184.4 183. 7 185.2 185.5 188. 1 191. 1 192.0 191.8 139.3 140.8 141.1 143. 1 142.8 141.8 142.8 143. a 8.06 NEW CONSTRUCTION Constructio n contracts2 Private Total new const ruc~ tion expenditures Period Resic ential Total Commercial and industrial New housing Total J Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1967= 100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) BOlions of doll ars 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 110.0 124. 1 137.9 138.5 134.5 148.8 172.6 43.3 54.3 59.7 50.4 46.5 60.5 81.0 80. 1 93.9 105.4 100.2 93.7 110.5 134.7 17.0 18. 1 21.7 23.8 20.8 19.9 22.5 35. 1 44.9 50. 1 40.6 34.4 47.3 65.7 19.8 21.5 24.0 25.9 26.4 30.0 31.3 Seasonally adjusted Seasonally / adjusted atinual rates 176.4 177.8 176.7 178. 1 179.0 171.4 177.6 185.4 195.3 201.6 205.8 208.3 205.4 1977: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1978: Jan Feb__ Mar Apr May June July Aug 9 137.6 138.3 139.2 140.6 142.3 134.9 141.9 147.7 153.7 156.5 160.6 159.9 157. 7 82.9 83.0 84. 2 85. 2 87.4 79.4 85.3 88. 1 92.4 94.5 94.9 94.0 92.7 23.8 24.2 24. 1 24.3 22.8 22.4 22.8 25.4 26.4 27.3 30.6 30.6 30.2 67. 1 67.6 69.3 70.7 72.8 65.0 70.9 72.5 74.4 75. 1 76.6 77.7 77.4 1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. 2 F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971 for floor space. 145.4 165.3 179.5 169.7 167.9 199.4 252.2 29.9 30.2 32.5 38.3 40.9 38.3 37.8 30.9 31.2 30.9 31. 1 32. 1 33.2 33.8 34. 1 34.9 34.6 35. 1 35.3 34.7 38.8 39.4 37.4 37.4 36.8 36.4 35.7 37.7 41.5 45. 1 45.2 48.4 47.8 267 279 244 258 299 283 266 254 279 332 249 286 289 727 854 1,010 840 555 592 738 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 853 813 757 847 864 996 814 863 921 1,061 999 898 951 NCTI.—New construction expenditure? data prior to 1973 not comparable with later data. Data revised beginning Juanuary 1978. • Sources: Department oi Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New priv ate homes Jew private housing unilbs * Units started, by type of striicture Period 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 Total 1 unit 1, 433. 6 2, 052. 2 2, 356. 6 2, 045. 3 1, 337. 7 1, 160. 4 1, 537. 5 1, 987. 1 812.9 1, 151. 0 1, 309. 2 1, 132. 0 888. 1 892.2 1, 162. 4 1, 450. 9 2-4 units 84. 8 120.3 141.3 118.3 68. 1 64.0 85.9 121.7 5 or more units 535.9 780.9 906.2 795.0 381.6 204.3 289.2 414.4 Units authorized 1, 351. 5 1, 924. 6 2, 218. 9 1, 819. 5 1, 074. 4 939.2 1, 296. 2 1, 690. 0 Units completed Homes sold 1, 418. 4 1, 706. 1 2, 003. 9 2, 100. 5 1, 728. 5 1, 317. 2 1, 377. 2 1, 657. 1 485 656 1,875 1,665 1,769 1,641 1,759 1,696 1,821 1,943 1,854 1, 890 1,942 1,950 Homes for sale at end of1 period Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent)2 634 519 549 646 819 220 287 409 418 346 313 354 403 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.0 5.6 5.2 845 870 819 857 813 774 793 827 846 824 791 757 389 398 401 403 405 404 404 410 412 418 420 423 5.4 71-8 Seasonally adjusted arinual rates 1977: Sept Oct Nov Dec 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June" July 9 Aug* Sept 9 1 2 _ 2,012 2, 139 2,096 2,203 1,548 1,569 2,047 2, 165 2,054 2,124 2, 119 2,044 2,073 1,508 1,532 1,544 1,574 1,156 1,103 1,429 1,492 1,478 1,441 1,453 1,454 1,451 Seasonally adjusted Quarterly data entcjred in last mon th of quarter. 124 127 134 153 101 79 126 142 89 148 135 142 110 380 480 418 476 291 387 492 531 487 535 531 448 512 1,695 1,781 1,822 1,778 1,526 1,534 1,647 1,740 1,597 1,821 1,632 1,563 1,707 5. 1 5.0 5. 1 5.0 Source: Depart ment of Comm arce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—TOTAL AND TRADE Business sales rose 2% percent in August while inventories rose nearly $3 billion. According to the advance survey, retail sales rose 11A percent in September, following an increase of 1 % percent in August. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 100 400 90 350 TOTAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES RETAIL INVENTORIES \ .80 300 70 250 RETAIL SALES 50 200 TOTAL BUSINESS SALES 40 150 RATIO* 1.80 INVENTORY-SALES RATIO 100 1974 1975 1976 1977 1974 1978 1977 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Total b usiness l Retail Who!esale Sales Period bales2 OJ -I n Inventories3 2 Durable goods stores Milli ons of d ollars, se asonally Inven-3 CJ 1 Sales *2 tories Tn-f al In ventorie 3 Nondurable goods stores TVvf al Invento ry-4 sales ratio DurNonable durable goods goods stores stores Total business 1 Retail adjusted 116, 351 130, 049 151, 647 175, 200 __ 179, 621 200, 760 223, 793 188, 508 203, 088 233, 749 285, 064 283, 614 309, 238 334, 785 26, 257 29, 584 36, 822 45, 836 44, 633 48, 408 53, 509 35, 823 39, 786 46, 254 56, 537 55, 113 61, 307 67, 998 34, 169 37, 422 41, 871 44, 543 48, 370 53, 542 59, 029 10, 827 12, 369 14, 091 13, 820 14, 907 17, 544 19, 901 23, 342 25, 054 27, 781 30, 723 33, 463 35, 998 39, 127 50, 063 55, 079 62, 950 70, 716 70, 623 78, 045 87, 073 21, 687 24, 238 28, 072 32, 394 32, 119 36, 417 40, 534 28, 376 30, 841 34, 878 38, 322 38, 504 41, 628 46, 539 1.58 1. 50 1.44 1.47 1.58 1.48 1.44 1.39 1.40 1.41 1.48 1.43 1.39 1.40 225, 305 228, 450 231, 550 237, 017 330, 345 330,832 333, 186 334, 785 53, 307 53, 639 55, 558 57, 266 66, 119 66, 209 67, 047 67, 998 59, 412 60, 720 61, 650 61, 813 20, 161 20, 837 20, 795 20, 674 39, 251 39, 883 40, 855 41, 139 85, 215 85, 322 86, 299 87, 073 39, 559 39, 589 40, 087 40, 534 45, 656 45, 733 46, 212 46, 539 1.47 1.45 1. 44 1.41 1.43 1.41 1.40 1.41 _ _ 230, 294 238, 165 242, 627 250, 606 251, 869 _ _ 252, 639 250, 853 257, 747 _ 337, 676 340, 396 345, 839 350, 545 354, 226 356, 920 359, 301 362, 100 55, 985 57, 635 58, 877 62, 152 64, Oil 63, 235 63, 404 64, 371 68, 991 70, 361 72, 882 74, 867 75, 474 75, 820 75, 664 75, 538 59, 987 61, 548 62, 649 63, 917 64, 292 64, 565 64, 343 65, 505 66, 502 19, 914 40, 073 20, 445 41, 103 20, 897 41, 752 21, 807 42, 110 21, 821 42, 471 22, 092 42, 473 21, 844 42, 499 22, 755 42, 750 23, 226. 43, 276 87, 708 87, 642 89, 097 89, 963 91, 063 91, 543 92, 470 93,680 41, 060 41, 369 41, 521 41, 881 42, 300 42, 036 42, 359 42, 640 46, 648 46, 273 47, 576 48, 082 48, 763 49, 507 50, 111 51, 040 1.47 1.43 1.43 1. 40 1. 41 1.41 1.43 1.41 1. 46 1.42 1.42 1.40 1.42 1. 42 1.44 1.43 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975_ 1976 1977 1977: Sept Oct Nov Dec 1978: Jan— Feb Mar Apr May June__ July Aug* Sept*_ 1978 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISEES 1 The term "business" also includes manufacturing 2 Monthly average for year and total for month. 3 Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. 4 (see page 21). For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month. 20 Note.—Total lousiness and retail sales revised beginning January 1977. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND NEW ORDERS Manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders rose in August. According to advance data, durable goods shipments and new orders were unchanged in September. BILLIONS OF.DOLLARS* (RATIOSCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) INVENTORIES 240 200 TOTAL 160 120 100 40 80 ,,H.IIIIHI,,,HI«»"«|WI" 60 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 140 NONDURABLE GOODS 40 NEW ORDERS 120 100 80 RATIO* INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO 60 DURABLE GOODS ^. 40 -NONDURABLE GOODS— 1975 1974 1974 1978 1977 1976 1975 1977 1976 1978 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Manufae turers' sh ipments 1 Manufact urers' inv entories * Manu faeturers ; new orders 1971 1972__._ 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 55, 925 63, 043 72, 954 84, 821 86, 616 98, 809 111,256 29, 34, 39, 44, 43, 50, 58, 973 043 704 253 678 697 266 25, 952 28, 999 33, 250 40, 568 42, 939 48, 112 52, 990 Durab e goods Capital Nongoods Durable Total Total durable indusgoods Total goods tries, nondefense Millio ns of dollsirs, season ally adjus ted 102, 622 66, 271 36, 351 56, 016 30, 030 7,535 108, 223 70, 244 37, 979 64, 201 35, 098 8, 832 124, 545 81, 333 43, 212 76, 224 42, 894 11, 114 157, 811 101, 790 56, 021 87, 200 46, 783 12, 691 157, 878 101, 580 56, 298 85, 058 41, 933 10, 781 169, 886 108, 968 60, 918 99, 134 50, 997 12, 501 179, 714 115,424 64, 290 112, 842 59, 795 15, 201 1977: Sept.. Oct___ Nov_. Dee__. 112, 114, 114, 117, 586 091 342 938 59, 60, 60, 62, 285 316 228 130 53, 53, 54, 55, 301 775 114 808 179, 179, 179, 179, Oil 301 840 714 114,467 114,448 115, 212 115, 424 64, 64, 64, 64, 1978: Jan___ 114, Feb... 118, Mar.— 121, 124, Apr May... 123, June__ 124, July___ 123, Aug p._ 127, Sept *>__ 322 982 101 537 566 839 106 871 59, 973 63, 077 64, 457 66, 493 65, 417 66, 293 65, 222 68, 684 68, 783 54, 349 55, 905 56, 644 58, 044 58, 149 58, 546 57, 884 59, 187 180, 182, 183, 185, 187, 189, 191, 192, 977 393 860 715 689 557 167 882 116,278 117, 511 118, 725 119, 848 121, 471 122, 688 123, 830 125, 206 64, 699 64, 882 65, 135 65, 867 66, 218 66, 869 67, 337 67, 676 Period Total 1 1 Monthly average for year and Book value, end of period. 8 End of period. 4 NonDurable durable goods goods total for month. Shipments are the same as sales. For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. 544 853 628 290 l ManuManu- fac- Nonturers' durable unfilled goods orders 3 fac- turers' inventoryshipments4 ratio 25, 986 29, 104 33, 329 40, 417 43, 125 48, 137 53, 047 107, 121, 161, 189, 170, 174, 193, 657 709 194 678 686 553 659 1. 83 1.67 1. 58 1. 65 1.83 1. 66 1.58 53, 316 53, 775 54, 203 55, 963 183, 186, 189, 193, 113, 680 117, 331 117,024 122, 128 60, 364 63, 556 62, 821 66, 165 16, 16, 16, 16, 547 787 469 659 1.59 1.57 1. 57 1.52 117, 122, 125, 128, 128, 127, 123, 130, 63, 66, 69, 70, 70, 68, 65, 71, 71, 16,511 54, 564 197, 235 1.58 1.53 1. 52 1.49 1. 52 1.52 1.55 1. 51 899 544 801 175 450 580 279 952 335 681 016 033 045 840 187 582 522 124 097 090 988 17, 882 17, 507 17, 409 18, 124 18, 155 17, 074 19, 344 19,492 55, 863 56, 785 58, 142 58, 405 58, 740 58, 092 59, 370 200, 798 205, 500 209, 133 214, 010 216, 754 216, 922 219, 999 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRODUCER PRICES PRICES In September, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished consumer foods increased 1.7 percent, and prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0.5 percent. Prices of capital equipment increased 0.6 percent. ^ . INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) CONSUMER GOODS EXCLUDING FOODS 120 120 100 100 1979 1971 SOURCEi DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] ]?inishec . goods In1bermedi ate Crud e materials rnaterial s Total Total Conconfin- sumer Foodsumer Congjumer g oods ished foods Capi- finstuffs Foods goods Total tal ished Total and Other Total and Other NonTh-ir 2 feedTotal dur- equip-l goods feeds stuff able ment F] nished goods exeludiniy cons umer f o ods Period 1970 1971 1972 _ 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1977: Sept. Oct Nov Dec 1978: Jan _ Feb Mar Apr __ May... _ _ June_ July_. _ _ „ _ _ _ _ Aug _ Sept 1 110.3 113.7 117.2 127.9 147.5 163. 4 170.3 180.6 182. 1 183.2 184.5 185.3 186.6 188.6 189.6 192. 0 193.4 194.7 195.7 195. 5 197.2 113. 5 115.3 121.7 146.4 166. 9 181.0 180.2 189. 1 189. 2 189.5 191. 9 192. 6 194. 8 200. 7. 202. 1 205.8 206.7 209. 1 208.4 205.2 208. 6 Formerly called producer finished goods. 22 109. 1 113. 1 115.4 120.2 139.4 156.2 165 5 176.2 178.2 179.5 180.3 181.2 182.2 183. 0 183.9 185. 8 187.3 188. 3 189. 8 190.6 191.7 107.7 111. 4 113.4 118.5 138.6 153. 1 161.8 172. 1 174. 1 174.8 175.4 176. 1 177. 1 177. 6 178.4 180.8 182.3 182.9 184.8 185.6 186.6 106.9 110. 8 113. 2 115.4 125.9 138. 2 144. 4 152.2 154. 0 154. 9 155. 5 156. 1 157.4 157.7 158.7 163. 2 165.5 165.5 168 4 169. 6 170.3 108.3 111.7 113. 6 120.5 146.8 163. 0 173. 3 185.4 187.5 188. 1 188.8 189.5 190.3 190.9 191.5 192. 4 193. 3 194.3 195.4 195. 9 197. 1 112.0 116.6 119.5 123. 5 141. 0 162.5 173. 2 184.5 186.4 188.9 189. 9 191.3 192. 3 193. 5 194.6 195.7 197. 3 198.9 199.9 200. 6 201. 8 109.9 112.9 116.6 129. 2 149. 3 163.6 169.0 178.9 180.3 180.8 182. 1 182. 7 184.2 186. 4 187.5 190.4 191. 6 192.9 193.9 193.4 195. 1 109.9 114. 1 118.7 131.6 162.9 180. 0 189.3 201.7 203.5 204.3 205. 2 206.0 207.9 209. 7 211.3 212. 4 213.7 214.3 215. 4 216. 4 217.9 109. 1 111.7 118.5 168.4 200.2 195.3 186.6 191.0 172.9 172.8 185.4 183.3 187.2 191.0 201. 1 201.2 206.4 201. 0 204. 1 197. 1 201.5 109.9 114.3 118.9 128. 1 159. 5 178.6 189. 5 202.4 205. 3 206. 1 206.4 207.4 209. 2 210. 9 212. 0 213. 1 214.2 215. 1 216.0 217.5 218. 9 112. 3 115. 1 127.6 174.0 196. 1 196.9 205. 1 214. 3 205.7 207.4 214.4 217.2 221. 6 228. 7 231.7 238.5 238. 9 243. 1 241. 7 238. 6 242.3 112.0 114.2 127.5 180.0 189.4 191.8 190. 1 190.9 179.8 182.2 189.9 191. 1 196.4 205.6 208. 0 217.0 217. 1 221. 3 215. 7 211.9 215.9 112.7 117.0 128. 0 162. 5 208.9 206.9 233.6 258.4 254. 4 254.9 260.9 266. 3 269.4 272. 1 276. 5 278. 8 279.8 284.4 291. 0 289. 6 292.5 2 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and manufactured animal feeds. NOTE.—Data revised for May 1978. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES In September, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.8 percent (also 0.8 percent seasonally adjusted). Food prices increased 0.1 percent (0.5 percent seasonally adjusted). Nonfood commodity prices rose 0.9 percent (also 0.9 percent seasonally adjusted) and services prices were up 1.0 percent (0.8 percent seasonally adjusted). INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 220 INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 200 120 120 100 100 1970 1971 1972 1974 1973 1975 1977 1976 1978 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [1967=100] All items Food Commodities less food _ 118. 3 121. 3 125.3 133. 1 147. 7 161. 2 170. 5 181. 5 114. 9 118. 4 123.5 141.4 161. 7 175. 4 180.8 192. 2 112.5 116. 8 119. 4 123. 5 136. 6 149. 1 156.6 165. 1 Period 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 Comnlodities le ss food Food All Services Services commodities All Food at home Food away from home All Durable Nondurable 121.6 128. 4 133.3 139. 1 152. 1 166.6 180.4 194. 3 113.5 117.4 120. 9 129.9 145. 5 158.4 165.2 174. 7 114. 9 118. 4 123. 5 141. 4 161. 7 175.4 180.8 192. 2 113. 7 116.4 121. 6 141. 4 162.4 175.8 179.5 190.2 119.9 126. 1 131. 1 141. 4 159.4 174.3 186. 1 200. 3 112. 5 116. 8 119.4 123. 5 136. 6 149. 1 156.6 165. 1 111.8 116. 5 118. 9 121. 9 130. 6 145. 5 154. 3 163.2 113. 1 117. 0 119. 8 124.8 140.9 151. 7 158. 3 166. 5 121. 6 128.4 133.3 139. 1 152. 1 166.6 180.4 194. 3 Seasonal y adjust ed Unac [justed 1977:Sept___ Oct Nov Dec 184. 0 184. 5 185.4 186. 1 194.5 194. 4 195.6 196.3 166. 7 167.4 168. 1 168.4 197.7 198. 5 199.5 200. 5 176.2 176. 7 177. 5 178.3 194. 7 195.0 196.0 196.7 192. 3 192. 5 193.5 194. 2 203. 8 204.5 205. 1 206. 1 166.2 166.8 167. 6 168. 4 163.9 164.4 165. 1 166. 0 167.8 168. 6 169. 4 169.9 197.9 198.7 199. 5 200.3 1978: Jan Feb____ Mar Apr May___ June July Aug Sept___ 187.2 188.4 189.8 191. 5 193. 3 195. 3 196.7 197.8 199.3 199.2 202. 0 204. 2 207.5 210.3 213.8 215. 0 215. 4 215.6 168.6 168.8 170.0 171.3 173.0 174. 4 175.4 176.3 177.8 202. 0 203. 5 204. 9 206.5 208. 0 209.9 211. 7 213.4 215.6 179. 9 180.8 182.3 184. 0 185. 6 187. 2 187.9 188. 7 190. 1 199. 2 201, 6 204.3 208. 1 211. 2 214. 0 213. 9 214.5 215.6 197.0 199.5 202. 5 207.3 211. 1 214. 0 213.2 213.3 214. 1 208. 4 210. 5 212.5 214. 0 215. 8 218. 2 219. 9 221. 7 223. 2 169. 5 169.9 170.9 171. 8 172. 8 173. 9 174. 9 175. 7 177.2 167. 6 168. 7 169.5 170. 4 171.8 173. 2 174. 4 175. 2 176.7 170.6 170. 1 171.2 172. 1 172.8 173. 5 174.4 175.2 176. 6 201.5 203.0 204. 7 206.6 208.7 210. 5 212.2 214.0 215.7 NOTE.—Beginning January 1078 data relate to all urban consumers. Earlier data relate to urban wage earners and clerical workers. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS Percen 3 change from pr<^ceding perioc 1; season ally adji] sted 1 Percen t change from 3 inonths earlie r; seasorlally adjilisted annua L rates Percen t change from 6 inonths earlie r; seasorlally adjijsted annua I rates Consum er goods Consum er goods Consum er goods Period Total finished goods 1969 1970 _ —_ _ 1971 _ 1972 ___ __ 1973__ 1974 1975 1976 _ _ 1977 1977: Sept Oct Nov Dec _ 1978: Jan Feb Mar _ _ Apr__ May June _ _ July Aug __ _ Sept __ 4.8 2. 2 3.2 3.8 11.8 18.3 6.6 3.3 6.6 .3 .6 .7 .4 .7 1. 1 .5 1.3 .7 .7 .5 —.1 .9 Capital Total finequipished Exclud- ment goods ing Foods foods 8.2 -2.5 5.9 8.0 22. 5 ]3. 0 5.5 -2.5 6.6 -. 1 .2 1.3 .4 1. 1 3.0 .7 1.8 .4 1.2 -.3 -1.5 1.7 2.9 3.9 2.0 2.0 7.4 20.5 6.7 4.9 6. 1 .5 .4 .3 .4 .6 .3 .5 1.3 .8 .3 1.0 .4 .5 4.6 4.9 2.4 2.0 5.3 22. 6 8.2 6.4 7.2 .5 1.3 .5 .7 .5 .6 .6 .6 .8 .8 .5 .4 .6 2.9 4.7 6.8 7.2 7.6 9.2 9.6 12. 1 10.6 11.2 7.9 4.4 5.2 Capital Total finequipished Exclud- ment ing goods Foods foods -2.3 -.8 5.6 7. 4 11.7 19. 6 21.2 24. 6 12.5 14.6 5.2 -2.9 1.0 4.0 5.2 5.2 4.7 5.4 5. 1 5.3 8. 6 11.0 10. 5 9. 1 7.4 8.3 6.0 9.9 10. 1 10.9 7.4 7.8 7. 1 7.3 8. 1 9. 1 8.9 6.9 6.0 4.7 4.5 4.4 5.0 6.2 8.0 8.4 9.8 9.9 10. 4 10.0 7.5 8.2 Capital equipExclud- ment Foods ing foods 1.0 ^ -.3 2.4 5.2 12.4 14. 1 17. 9 16.0 17.9 14. 5 4.5 6.5 5.9 4.9 4.6 4.3 5. 3 5. 1 5.0 7.0 8.0 7.9 8.9 9. 2 9.4 6.4 8. 1 7.9 8.4 8.6 8.9 9.0 7.3 7.9 8. 1 8. 1 7.5 7.5 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. * Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted). NOTE.—Based on revised data for May 1978. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES Percen t change from pre ceding perio i; seasortally adju sted 1 Period All items Food Commodities less food Services 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1977: Sept___ Oet__Nov___ Dec___ 6. 1 5.5 3.4 3.4 8. 8 12.2 7.0 4.8 6.8 .4 .3 .4 .4 7.2 2. 2 4. 3 4.7 20. 1 12. 2 6.5 .6 8.0 .2 .2 .5 .4 4.5 4.8 2.3 2.5 5.0 13.2 6.2 5. 1 4. 9 .3 .4 .5 .5 7.4 8.2 4. 1 3.6 6.2 11.3 8. 1 7.3 7.9 .6 .4 .4 .4 1978: Jan. _ _ Feb__. Mar__ _ Apr — May__ June__ July_._ Aug___ Sept_._ .8 .6 .8 .9 .9 .9 .5 .6 .8 1.3 1. 2 1. 3 1.9 1.5 1.3 -.0 .3 .5 .7 .6 .7 .8 .9 1. 0 .9 .8 .8 .8 .2 .6 .5 .6 .6 .6 .5 .9 Percent c lange f re>m 3 mont tis earlier ; Percent c lange f re>m 6 mont tis earlier ; seasonsilly adju sted annu al rates seasonailly ad jus5ted annu al rates All items Services All items Food Commodities less food Services 1.9 3. 1 3.5 4.2 2. 7 3. 4 4.7 "5.4 7. 6 6.3 5.6 4.9 6. 1 5. 1 4.8 4.7 6.6 3.7 3.6 3.0 3.5 3. 3 3. 7 4.0 8.5 7.8 7.0 6.3 8.9 6. 7 7. 5 11.9 16.4 9.3 19.1 10.0 11. 3 " 20. 5 11.4 20. 4 9.7 11.6 6.4 8. 3 7.8 3.0 6.6 5.6 6. 1 5.5 7.0 7.2 7.4 6.9 7.8 5.8 7.2 9. 1 10. 5 11. 7 11.8 11.3 10.6 10.3 5.6 6. 1 7. 1 8.3 9.4 10. 4 9.8 9.8 9.6 6.0 7.7 10. 1 13.9 16. 1 18.4 15.3 13.2 11.4 5. 0 5. 1 5. 7 6. 1 6.3 6.6 6.5 6.9 7.5 6.0 6.4 7.0 8.1 9.4 10.4 10.9 11.1 11.0 4.5 4. 5 4.7 4.9 1 Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted). NOTE.—Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. Earlier data relate to urban wage earners and clerical workers. 24 Food Commodities less food Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers rose 2 percent in September. Contributing most to the increase were higher prices for cattle, grapefruit, oranges, and milk Partially offsetting were lower prices for potatoes, corn, lemons, and rice. Prices paid by farmers rose 1 percent in the month ended September 15. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) PRICES RECEIVED (ALL FARM PRODUCTS) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES, ON 1910-14="lOO BASE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Prices received by farmers Period 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 _ All farm products _ _ _ _ 1977: Sept Oct Nov Dec . 1978: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June. July Aug Sept_ _ _ _ _ _ _ Crops Prices paid by farmers All items, Livestock interest, Family Production and living taxes, and items items products wage rates Index, 1 967 = 100 Actual Adjusted2 110 113 125 179 192 185 186 183 100 108 114 175 224 201 197 192 118 118 136 183 165 172 177 175 112 118 125 144 164 180 191 202 114 118 123 133 151 166 176 (3) 108 113 121 146 166 182 193 200 72 71 74 91 86 76 71 66 77 75 79 94 87 76 72 68 174 177 178 181 170 178 184 183 177 176 174 180 201 201 202 203 (33) (3) (3) () 197 198 199 199 63 65 65 66 65 66 66 67 186 193 200 208 215 217 215 210 214 188 190 198 208 212 216 212 202 202 185 196 204 209 217 219 217 217 225 209 211 214 216 219 220 220 220 222 (3) (*) (33) () (33) () (33) (3) () 203 206 211 214 217 218 218 217 220 65 67 69 71 72 73 72 70 71 67 69 71 73 74 75 74 72 73 1 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by fanners to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates on 1910-14=100 base. 9 The adjusted parity ratio reflects Government payments made directly to farmers. Parity ratio l 3 Index discontinued. Consumer price index (Department of Labor) substituted in calculating total prices paid beginning January 1977. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK Growth in all of the monetary aggregates was unusually rapid in September. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO i BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 200 200 1978 "SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE; BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEOIRAl RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Over all measiires 1 Deposi ;s at coimmercia banks Period Mi M2 M3 Currency Tim e and savings Demand Total 1972: 1973: 1974: 1975: 1976: 1977: 1977: Dec— Dec... Dec— Dec... Dec— Dec— Sept.. Oct.__ Nov Dec 1978: Jan... Feb... Mar Apr May__ June__ July... Aug... Sept *_ 255.3 270.5 282. 9 295.2 313. 5 338.5 333.0 335.9 336. 2 338.5 341, 7 341.8 342.9 348.5 350.6 352.8 354. 2 356.7 360.9 525.3 571.4 612. 2 664.7 740.5 809. 5 795. 1 801.4 805.4 809.5 815.9 819. 1 822.6 830.3 835.2 840.6 846.2 853.5 862.3 844.4 919.2 981.2 1, 092. 5 1, 236. 5 1, 376. 1 1, 344. 9 1, 357. 9 1, 367. 1 1, 376. 1 1, 386. 6 1, 393. 1 1, 400. 3 1, 411. 4 1? 419. 9 1, 429. 8 1, 440, 9 1, 455. 1 1, 471. 8 56.8 61. 5 67.8 73.7 80. 7 88.6 86.3 87. 1 87.7 88.6 89.4 90. 1 90.7 91. 2 92. 1 92.8 93.3 94.0 95.2 198.4 209. 0 215. 1 221.5 232. 8 249.9 246.6 248.7 248.5 249,9 252.2 251.7 252.3 257. 3 258.5 259.9 260. 9 262.8 265.7 313.5 363.9 418. 3 450.9 489.7 545.0 525.9 531.9 540. 1 545.0 550.6 556.7 561.7 565.2 571.6 574.5 579.4 583.0 589.6 1 MI is currency plus demand deposits; Mz is Mi plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large certificates of deposit (CDs); and Ma is Mz plus deposits at nonbank thrift institutions. 26 Percsent2 cha nge Compon ents and related ii .ems Large CDs 43.5 63.0 89. 0 81.3 62.7 74.0 63.8 66.4 70.9 74.0 76.3 79.4 82.0 83.4 87. 1 86.7 87.4 86.3 88. 1 Other 270.0 300.9 329.3 369.6 427.0 471.0 462. 1 465.5 469.2 471.0 474.3 477.3 479.7 481.8 484. 5 487. 8 492.0 496. 7 501.5 Deposits at nonbank thrift institutions U.S. Government demand deposits (unadjusted) 319. 2 347.8 369. 1 427. 8 496. 0 566.6 549.8 556.5 561.7 566. 6 570.7 574. 0 577.7 581.2 584.7 589.2 594.7 601. 6 609.5 7. 4 6.3 4.9 4. 1 4. 4 5. 1 5. 0 3.7 3.5 5. 1 4.3 4. 3 4. 8 5.0 4. 0 t\2 4.5 3. 6 6.2 M, M2 9. 1 6.0 4.6 4.3 6.2 8.0 8.6 8.0 7.9 8. 1 8. 1 7.0 6.0 7.6 8.7 8. 6 7.5 8.9 10.8 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly chang from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 11.3 8.8 7. 1 8.6 11.4 9.3 9.7 9.4 9.5 9.0 8.2 7.7 7.0 7.3 7.5 7.8 7.6 8.6 9.9 PRIVATE LIQUID ASSET HOLDINGS— NONFINANCIAL INVESTORS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Currency and cleposits U.S. Tireasury secuiities ShortNonbank term Savings marketthrift institu- bonds able setions curities Timed eposits Negotiable certificates of deposit Other private money market instruments Total liquid assets Total 1970: Dec 1971: Dec 1972: Dec 1973: Dec 1974: Dec 1975: Dec 1976: Dec 1977: Dec 769.7 852.5 967.2 1, 085. 3 1, 170. 2 1, 290. 6 1, 424. 6 1, 591. 0 632.7 719.0 816.6 887. 7 945.0 1, 055. 3 1, 195. 2 1, 328. 3 49. 1 52.6 56.8 61. 5 67.8 73.7 80.7 88.6 152.0 161.8 176.1 183.7 187. 1 192.4 200. 0 213.9 198.9 233.6 264.3 294.4 321. 1 360.6 417.3 459.2 232.7 271. 1 319.3 348. 1 369. 1 428.6 497. 3 566. 6 52.0 54. 3 57.6 60. 4 63. 3 67.2 71.9 76.6 41. 9 31.5 34.3 43.4 47. 1 66.3 66.5 77.6 21.8 27. 6 36. 2 53.8 70.4 58.4 43.2 52.3 21.3 20. 1 22.5 40.0 44.4 43.3 47.8 56.3 1977: Sept Oct Nov Dec 1, 542. 7 1, 561. 2 1, 576. 5 1, 591. 0 1, 297. 8 1, 311. 2 1, 319. 2 1, 328. 3 86.3 87. 1 87.7 88.6 210.3 213.0 212. 1 213.9 451.4 454.6 457.6 459.2 549.8 556.5 561. 7 566. 6 75.3 75.8 76.2 76.6 73.3 75.5 77. 1 77.6 44.0 46.1 50.0 52.3 52. 1 52.6 54.0 56.3 1978:Jan___ Feb Mar „ Apr_ _ May_ „__ _ _ June- _ July Aug _ _ _ Sept *_ _ 1, 607. 7 1, 619. 2 1, 631. 0 1, 647. 4 1, 662. 3 1, 674. 2 1, 687. 0 1, 699. 6 1, 719. 2 1, 339. 1 1, 345. 6 1, 352. 8 1, 363. 5 1, 371. 5 1, 381. 6 1, 393. 9 1, 407. 9 1, 424. 4 89.4 90. 1 90.7 91.2 92. 1 92.8 93.3 94.0 95.2 216.6 216. 0 216.3 221.5 222. 1 223. 1 224.7 226.5 229. 2 462.4 465.5 468. 1 469.6 472.5 476.5 481.2 485.9 490.7 570.7 574. 0 577.7 581.2 584.7 589.2 594.7 601.4 609.3 77.0 77.4 77.8 78.2 78.6 78.9 79. 3 79.5 79.8 79.5 80. 1 79.8 80.7 81.6 81.7 80.0 79.6 80.6 53.4 54.8 56.5 58.6 62.3 61.7 62.4 60.9 62.4 58.7 61.4 64. 1 66.4 68.3 70.4 71.4 71.6 72. 1 Period Currency Demand deposits Commercial banks Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. NOTE.—Data revised beginning January 1972. CONSUMER INSTALMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Instalm ent credit e:ttended Period Total l 1970 1971 1972 _ _ 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1977: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1978: Jan Feb Mar __ _ Apr_ _ May June July Aug. _ Total l Automobile Bank credit cards Total * Automobile Bank credit cards 30, 094 35, 820 42, 700 48, 399 45, 429 51, 413 62, 988 72, 888 6,768 8,377 10, 390 13, 863 17, 098 20, 428 25, 862 31, 761 107, 444 113, 784 121, 926 138, 156 147, 920 156, 665 172, 795 194, 555 30, 440 31, 614 37, 188 42, 642 44, 929 48, 406 52, 750 59, 652 5,615 7,679 9,472 12, 433 15, 655 19, 208 24, 012 28, 851 4,852 10, 043 15, 191 19, 707 9,280 7,504 20, 533 31, 090 19, 204 19, 164 19, 787 19, 680 20, 138 6,158 6, 109 6,083 6,330 6,721 2,711 2,847 2,973 2, 828 2,973 16, 553 16, 814 17, 160 16, 826 17, 402 5, 104 5,005 5,234 5,089 5,424 2,396 2,567 2,687 2,585 2 S 723 2,651 2,351 2,626 2,853 2,736 1,054 1, 105 1,241 1,297 850 315 279 287 243 250 19, 586 20, 179 21, 595 22, 117 22, 336 22, 680 22, 332 22, 632 6,263 6,400 6,822 7,248 7,387 7, 241 7,156 7,399 2,948 3, 143 3,231 3,255 3,245 3,482 3,466 3,499 17, 162 17, 518 17, 527 18, 398 18, 479 18, 888 19, 031 19, 646 5,078 5,296 5,300 5, 520 5,598 • 5, 698 5,636 5,953 2,788 2,858 2,783 2,944 2, 982 3, 120 3,068 3, 219 2,424 2,661 4,068 3,719 3,857 3, 792 3,301 2,986 1,185 1, 104 1,522 1,728 1,789 1,543 1,520 1,446 160 285 448 311 263 362 398 280 i Includes some items not shown separately. Bank credit cards Net change5 in amount outstanding 296 826 117 863 200 169 328 645 112, 123, 137, 157, 157, 164, 193, 225, _ Automobile Instalmc3nt credit liejuidated -347 4,207 5,512 5,758 500 3,007 10, 238 13, 235 1,153 699 918 1,430 1,443 1,220 1,850 2,911 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES Growth in commercial and industrial loans remained moderately strong in September. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 1,000 -ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS- 1,000 TOTAL —= LOANS AND INVESTMENTS - 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 INVESTMENT IN OTHER SECURITIES „,„«.«• ••«*"' Minrti*"" 100 100 80 80 INVESTMENT IN U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 60 60 40 1970 1971 1972 1975 1974 1973 1977 1976 *"SEASONAUY ADJUSTED, END OF MONTH SOURCE.- BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM T> 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] All member ban ks All c ommercial I>anks l Borrowiiigs (milL<Dans Investn lents £teserves 2 3 lions of dollars, Total unadji isted) 2 loans and Total exU.S. Gov- Other invest- cluding CommerReNonSeacial and ernment secuTotal Total ments inter- industrial borrowed quired sonal securities rities bank • 435.5 485.7 558. 0 633.4 691. 1 721. 8 785. 1 870.6 292.0 320.9 378. 9 449. 0 500.2 496.9 538.9 617.0 1977: Sept Oct Nov Dec 850. 8 860.0 866.2 870.6 593.9 602.7 611.6 617.0 1978: J a n » _ _ _ __ Feb» Mar".__ Apr p ___ May * _ June p July *>__ Aug* . _„ Sept » 880.6 886. 6 892.2 906. 0 917.9 922.4 935.2 939. 2 947. 1 624.9 628.2 636.5 646.3 657.9 661.2 672.0 677.2 684.4 _ i i 1 1 i i i i ij 40 1978 _ _ _ 1 Data are 2 Averages 3 _ 4 5 6 6 110. 0 116. 2 130.4 156.6 183.5 176. 2 179. 7 201. 4 57.8 60.6 62. 6 54.5 51. 1 80. 1 98.0 95.6 85. 7 104. 2 116. 5 129.9 139.8 144.8 148. 2 158.0 29. 11 31. 17 31.34 34. 91 36.57 34.68 34.93 36.14 28.78 31.04 30.29 33. 61 35.84 34. 55 34. 88 35.57 28.86 30.98 31.06 34.61 36.31 34.42 34. 65 35.95 321 107 1,049 1,298 703 127 62 558 41 32 13 12 54 196.0 198.7 200. 2 201. 4 100.7 99.4 96.3 95.6 156. 2 157.9 158.3 158.0 35. 52 35.81 35.96 36. 14 34. 89 34.50 35. 10 35.57 35.31 35.60 35. 71 35.95 634 1,319 840 558 112 114 83 54 203.9 206. 1 210.3 213. 3 219. 2 220.4 222.3 224.4 226. 3 96.3 99. 0 95.6 97.6 97. 1 98.4 99.7 97. 0 96.3 159.4 159.4 160. 1 162. 1 162.9 162.8 163. 5 165.0 166.4 36.61 36.93 36. 67 36.95 37.26 37.73 38. 19 37. 91 38. 17 36. 12 36.52 36. 34 36. 39 36.05 36.63 36. 88 36. 77 37. 11 36.34 36. 69 36.47 36. 80 37.04 37.55 38.00 37. 74 37.97 481 405 344 539 1,227 1, 111 1,286 1, 147 1,067 32 52 47 43 93 120 143 188 191 lor end of period. of daily figures. Annual data are for December. Member bank reserves series reflects actual reserve requirement percentages with no adjustment to eliminate the effect of changes in Regulations D and M. 28 4 During 1974, total loans and investments were increased $0.6 billion due to a bank merger and were reduced $1.5 billion due to liquidation of a large bank. 5 Loan reclassifications reduced these loans by $1.2 billion as of March 31, 1976. 8 Loan reclassifications reduced these loans by $0.2 billion in December 1977. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adiusted annual rates] Sources Uses Total Purchase of physical assets 4 crease in financial assets External Period Total Internal 1 Credilj market i unds Total Tntal 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975___ 1976 1977 „ _ __ _ _ 1977: I II III IV 1978: I II _ 9 Longterm 2 Short-3 term Other In- Discrepancy ( sources less uses) 104. 3 127. 1 161.7 199. 7 190. 8 143.8 205.0 238. 9 58.9 68. 6 80.8 83.8 75. 7 106. 8 124. 7 135. 3 45. 5 58.5 80. 9 115.9 115. 1 37. 0 80. 3 103. 6 40. 7 44.5 58.3 72. 7 81. 8 37.0 58.2 78. 7 32. 1 40. 6 40. 6 37. 1 39. 1 49. 2 48. 7 46. 2 8. 6 3. 9 17. 6 35. 6 42. 6 -12. 2 9. 4 32. 5 14. 1 22. 7 43. 3 33. 4 .0 22. 1 25. 0 95. 9 119.6 145. 9 185.6 179. 1 131.9 184.9 212.4 80. 3 86. 0 100. 3 123. 3 134. 7 99. 9 141. 2 164. 6 15.6 33. 6 45. 6 62. 3 44. 4 32. 0 43. 7 47.8 7. 5 15. 9 14.2 11.8 11. 9 20. 1 26. 7 244.3 198.6 266. 1 247.2 123.8 134.9 145. 5 137. 3 120. 5 63.7 120.6 109. 9 75.9 63. 7 80. 1 95.2 34. 5 35. 2 53.4 61. 6 41. 4 28. 5 26. 7 33. 6 44. 5 .0 40. 5 14. 7 214. 177. 234. 222. 6 3 6 7 152. 5 162. 4 175.2 168. 0 62. 1 14. 9 59. 4 54. 7 29.6 21. 3 31.4 24. 4 282. 2 266. 6 125. 6 140. 5 156. 6 126. 1 107. 0 101. 3 40. 3 46. 7 66. 7 54. 6 49. 6 24. 8 260. 5 245. 8 180. 3 198. 3 80. 2 47. 5 21. 6 20.8 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), c apital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits. 1 Stocks, bond s, and mortgages. 3 Bank loans, commercial paper, finance company loans, tankers' acceptances, and Governmen t loans. 4.8 8.4 * Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars, except as noted] Cur rent liabil ities Curreiit assets End of period Total SEC series: 2 1970 ___ 1971 1972_ __ 1973 1974 FTC-FRB series: 3 1974___ _ _ 1975 1976 1977___ Cash Notes U.S. governand ment acsecuri- counts payable ties Inventories Other current assets Total Net Notes and accounts payable Other current liabilities working capital Current ratio 1 492. 529. 599. 697. 790. 3 6 3 8 7 50. 2 53. 3 59.0 66. 3 71. 1 7. 7 11.0 10.6 12. 8 12. 3 206. 221. 248. 288. 322. 1 1 2 5 1 193. 3 200.4 225. 7 263. 9 313. 6 35. 0 43. 8 55. 8 66.4 71. 7 304.9 326. 0 375. 6 450. 9 530. 4 211. 3 220. 5 282. 9 340. 3 402.3 93. 6 105. 5 92. 7 110. 7 128. 1 187.4 203.6 223. 7 246. 9 260. 3 1. 615 1.625 1. 595 1. 548 1.491 734. 756. 823. 900. 6 3 1 1 73. 0 80.0 86.8 94. 2 11. 3 19. 6 26.0 20. 9 265. 5 272. 1 292. 4 325.7 318.9 314. 7 341. 4 375. 0 65.9 69. 9 76. 4 84. 3 451. 8 446. 9 487. 5 543. 2 272. 261. 273. 306. 179. 5 185. 7 214. 2 236. 3 282.8 309. 5 335. 6 357. 0 1.626 1.693 1. 688 1. 657 1977: I __ II III IV 842. 0 856.4 880.3 900. 1 80.8 83. 1 83. 4 94. 2 26. 8 22. 1 21. 5 20. 9 304. 1 312.8 326. 9 325. 7 352. 1 358. 8 367. 5 375. 0 78. 3 79. 6 81.0 84. 3 502.6 509. 5 528.9 543. 2 280. 2 286.8 297.8 306. 8 222. 222. 231. 236. 339. 346. 351. 357. 5 9 4 0 1.675 1. 681 1. 664 1.657 1978: I 921.8 88.3 20.8 336.8 389. 5 86.4 564. 6 316.3 248. 3 357. 2 1. 633 1 2 3 Total current assets divided by total current liabilities. Based on data from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury. Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations, Federal Trade Commission. 3 2 2 8 4 7 1 3 NOTE.—SEC series not available after 1974. See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series. Data revised beginning 1977. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Trade Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Virtually all interest rates rose further during October. PERCENT PER'ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM 1970 1978 SOURCE.- SEE TABLE BELOW COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum) Period 1972 __ 1973. _ _ _ _ 1974_ __ 1975_ 1976_ 1977 1977: Oct Nov__ _ _ Dec 1978: Jan_ .. Feb Mar Apr. ~ _ May__ June_ . July Aug. Sept__ _ Oct Week ended: 1978: Sept 30 Oct 7 14 _ 21 28*>_ 1 2 U.S. Tre asury securi ty yields Constant rmaturities 2 3-month bills i 3-year 10-year High-grade Corporate Prime com- Discount mercial rate municipal Aaa (N.Y. paper, bonds F.R. 4-6 (Standard Bank)4 & Poor's)3 (Moody's) months 4. 071 7. 041 7. 886 5.838 4. 989 5. 265 6. 188 6. 160 6. 063 6. 448 6. 457 6.319 6. 306 6.430 6. 707 7.074 7.036 7.836 8. 132 5.72 6. 95 7.82 7.49 6.77 6.69 7. 19 7.22 7.30 7.61 7.67 7.70 7.85 8.07 8.30 8. 54 8.33 8.41 6. 21 6.84 7.56 7. 99 7.61 7.42 7.52 7.58 7.69 7.96 8.03 8. 04 8. 15 8.35 8.46 8.64 8.41 8.42 5. 27 5. 18 6. 09 6. 89 6. 49 5.56 5. 53 5. 38 5. 48 5. 60 5.51 5.49 5.71 5. 97 6. 13 6. 18 5.98 5. 93 7. 21 7. 44 8. 57 8. 83 8.43 8. 02 8. 04 8. 08 8. 19 8.41 8.47 8.47 8.56 8.69 8.76 8. 88 8. 69 8.69 4. 69 8. 15 9. 87 6. 33 5. 35 5. 60 6. 55 6. 59 6. 64 6. 79 6.80 6. 80 6. 86 7. 11 7. 63 7.91 7.90 8. 44 8. 106 8. 161 8.256 8.209 7. 900 8.49 8. 50 8.47 8. 57 8.67 8.55 8.58 8. 54 8.62 8.69 5.91 5.87 5.90 5. 97 6. 05 8.77 8.81 8. 85 8.88 8.92 8.60 8. 75 8.97 9.07 9. 19 Rate on new issues within period. Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. 4s Weekly data are Wednesday figures. Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 30 4. 50 6.45 7. 83 6.25 5. 50 5. 46 5JH3 6-6 6-6 6-6H 6&-6H 6H-6H 6*2-6% 6H-7 7-7 7-7 1 7 /4-7% 7%-8 8-8 8-8 8-8 8-8^ 8^2- Prime rate charged by banks 4 5. 25 8. 03 10.81 7.86 6. 84 6. 83 731/i-733/4 7 /4-7 /4 73/4-73/4 73/4-8 8-8 8-8 8-8 8-8H 8H-9 9-9 9 -9K 9&-9Ji 934- Newhome mortgage yields (FHLBB)s 7. 60 7.95 8.92 9. 01 8. 99 9.01 9.07 9. 07 9.09 9. 15 9. 18 9. 26 9.30 9. 37 9.46 9. 57 9. 70 9.73 9^-9% 93/4-9M 934-10 10-10 10-10^ s Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgage15, reflectini fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repaymed at end of 10 years. Rates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable wit! prior rates. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan B*ank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices were extremely erratic in October. INDEX, DEC.31,1965=50 80 INDEX, DEC 31,1965 =50 80 COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX (NYSE) 20 EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS - 15 - 10 - 5 1978 1970 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION Comimon stock p rices Period New York Stock Exerlange indexes(Dec. 31. 1965=50) * Composite Industrial Transportation 1972 1973_ 1974_ 1975 1976 1977 1977: Sept Oct Nov Deo__. __ 1978: Jan— ...... Feb Mar_ Apr___ May _ __ June_ _ July Aug. Sept _ _ _ _ Week ended: 1978: Sept 30 Get 7_ _ 14____ 21___ 28 _ Utility 65. 73 63.08 48.08 50. 52 60.44 57.86 56.41 54. 99 55. 62 53. 55 53. 45 52. 80 52. 77 55. 48 59. 14 59. 63 59. 35 64.07 64. 23 50. 17 37. 74 31.89 31. 10 39. 57 41.09 39.99 38. 33 39.30 39. 75 39. 15 38. 90 38. 95 41. 19 44.21 44. 19 44. 74 49.45 50. 19 38.48 37.69 29.79 31.50 36. 97 40.92 40.93 40.38 40.33 40.36 39. 06 39.02 39. 26 39, 69 39.47 39.41 39.28 40.20 39. 82 78. 35 70. 12 49.67 47. 14 52. 94 55.25 55. 33 53.24 54.04 53. 85 50. 91 50. 60 51.44 55.04 57.95 58. 31 57. 97 63. 28 63. 22 57.55 58. 07 59.00 56.31 53.92 62.94 63. 55 64. 63 61. 46 58.70 48.62 49. 13 50. 09 46.31 43.44 39. 78 40. 02 40.43 39.45 38.58 61. 91 62.36 63.60 60. 62 57.33 the NYSE. Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. Finance 60.29 57.42 43. 84 45.73 54.46 53. 69 52. 66 51.37 51.87 51. 83 49. 89 49.41 49. 50 51.75 54.49 54.83 54.61 58.53 58. 58 1 Averages of daily closing prices. 1 Includes all the stocks (more4 than 1,500) listed on 3 Includes 30 stocks. Includes 500 stocks. 5 Common stock 5 yields (percent) * * Standard & Poor's Dowcomposite Dividend- EarningsJones index industrial3 ratio ratio = average (1941-43 10) 4 2.84 5.50 109. 20 950. 71 7. 12 3.06 107. 43 923. 88 4.47 82. 85 11. 59 759. 37 4.31 9. 15 802. 49 86. 16 8.90 102. 01 3.77 974. 92 4. 62 98.20 10.79 894. 63 4.82 11.09 853. 30 96. 23 4.97 823. 96 93. 74 5. 02 94.28 828. 51 93.82 5. 11 818. 80 11.45 5.32 90. 25 781. 09 5.49 763. 57 88.98 5.62 12.25 88.82 756. 37 5.42794. 66 92. 71 5,20 838. 56 97.41 840. 26 5. 19 97. 66 831. 72 5. 25 97. 19 4. 93 887. 93 103. 92 4.97 878. 64 103. 86 863 57 873. 94 896. 01 855. 91 825. 92 102. 13 103. 18 104. 80 100. 34 96.72 5.08 5. 02 4. 91 5. 16 5.33 NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBT In fiscal year 1978 the budget deficit was $48.7 billion, compared with $45.0 billion in fiscal 1977. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 500 RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 500 400 400 OUTLAYS 300 300 RECEIPTS 200 200 50 50 SURPLUS (+) OR DEFICIT (-) 0 0 -50 -50 _L -100 1970 1971 1972 1973 -100 1974 1976 1975 1977 1978 1979 FISCAL YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Period Fiscal year or period: 1969__ _ 1970 1971 1972 _ _ _ 1973 ____^. 1974 1975 - _ __ _ 1976 __ _ _ Transition quarter _ 1977 1978 2 __ 1979 (estimates) : Statement, October 1978 2 Second Concurrent Resolution, September 1978 3 1 2 Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit ( — ) 187.8 193. 7 188.4 208. 6 232.2 264.9 281. 0 300.0 81.8 357.8 402. 0 184. 5 196.6 211.4 232. 0 247. 1 269. 6 326. 1 366. 4 94. 7 402.8 450. 7 3.2 -2. 8 -23.0 -23. 4 -14. 8 -4.7 -45. 1 -66. 4 13.0 -45. 0 -48. 7 452. 7 491. 6 —38.9 448. 7 487. 5 -38. 8 Federal debt ( end of period) Tntal 1 367. 1 382. 6 409. 5 437. 3 468. 4 486. 2 544. 1 631. 9 646. 4 709. 1 780.4 Held by the public 279.5 284.9 304. 3 323.8 343. 0 346. 1 396.9 480.3 498. 3 551.8 610.9 Excludes non-interest-bearing public debt securities held by IMF. NOTE.—See Note, p. 33. Data from Joint Statement of Secretary of the Treasury and Director, Office Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget, of Management and Budget, October 27, 1978. except as noted. s Second Concurrent Resolution on the Budget—Fiscal Year 1979, September 21 1978. 32 tTEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In fiscal year 1978 budget receipts were $44.2 billion higher than in fiscal 1977 and outlays were $47.9 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 -RECEIPTS- 200 100 100 CORPORATION INCOME TAXES .V OTHER RECEIPTS 400 400 OUTLAYS 300 300 NONDEFENSE 200 200 100 100 I v 1970 I 1971 I 1972 1974 1973 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 M FISCAL YEARS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Nationa . defense Period Fiscal year or period: 1969_ 1970 1971_ 1972 _ 1973 1974_ 1975 1976_ _ Transition quarter 1977 1978 i 1979 (estimates) l Total 187. 8 193.7 188.4 208. 6 232.2 264. 9 281. 0 300. 0 81.8 357. 8 402. 0 452. 7 Indi- Corpovidual ration Other income income taxes taxes 87. 2 90. 4 86.2 94. 7 103. 2 119.0 122. 4 131. 6 38.8 157. 6 181. 0 202.7 36. 7 32. 8 26.8 32. 2 36. 2 38. 6 40. 6 41. 4 8. 5 54.9 60. 0 68. 0 63. 9 70. 5 75. 4 81. 7 92.8 107. 4 118. 0 127. 0 34. 5 145. 2 161. 1 182. 0 1 Data from Joint Statement of Secretary of the Treasury and Director, Office f Management and Budget, October 27, 1978. NOTE.—Earned income credit payments in excess of an individual's tax liability are classified as outlays for all periods. Total Total 184.5 196. 6 211. 4 232. 0 247. 1 269. 6 326. 1 366.4 94. 7 402. 8 450.7 491. 6 79. 4 78. 6 75.8 76. 6 74.5 77.8 85. 6 89.4 22. 3 97. 5 105. 2 114. 5 Interna- Health In- Other and Depart- tional income ment of affairs security terest Defense, military 77.9 77. 2 74. 5 75.2 73.3 77. 6 85. 0 88.0 21. 9 95. 7 103. 1 112. 0 4. 6 4.3 4. 1 4. 7 4. 0 5. 6 6.9 5. 5 2. 2 4. 8 5. 9 6. 3 49.0 56. 1 70. 1 81.4 91. 8 106. 5 136. 3 160. 9 41. 5 176. 7 189. 9 209. 1 15. 8 18. 3 19. 6 20. 6 22. 8 28. 1 31. 0 34. 6 7. 2 38. 1 43. 9 52. 1 35. 7 39.3 41.8 48.8 53.9 51. 7 66. 5 76.0 21.5 85.7 105. 8 109. 6 Source: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS in the second quarter, Federal receipts rose $28.6 billion (annual rate) and expenditures fell slightly, yielding a deficit of $23.6 billion, less than half the deficit in the first quarter. In the third quarter, according to preliminary estimates, expenditures rose $17.8 billion/ receipts data are incomplete. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 550 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 500 150 50 50 SURPLUS mm m ^ DEFICIT .^n-I ^ -50 I \I \ PH % 1rtA 1970 1971 1973 1972 V-?75 1974 CALENDAR YEAR' r. 0 I -50 ^ — 100 1977 1976 1978 COUNCIL OF, ECONOMIC'ADVISERS SOURCE! DEPARTMENT OF COMMiRCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal (jovernm ent receipts Period Fe3deral G<jvernmeiit expen ditures Subsidies Less: Grantsless Wage Purin-aid Indirect ContriPersonal Corpochases Trans- to State Net current accruals rate business butions tax and Total nontax profits tax and for Total of goods fer pay- and interest surplus of less tax nontax social inpaid Govern- disand ments local receipts accruals services government en- burseaccruals surance ments terprises ments Surplus or deficit (-), national income and product accounts Fiscal year: 271.8 1974 1975..... 283.5 1976.. .... 313. 9 365.3 1977 Calendar year: 1974__»___ 288.6 286.2 1975 331.4 1976 374.5 1977 122. 6 127. 1 136.9 165.9 43.7 42. 1 51.9 58.8 21.4 22.2 24.2 24.5 84.2 92. 1 100.9 116. 1 278.8 328.7 371.5 412. 0 104.6 118.0 126.2 140.7 104. 7 134.3 156.5 169.6 41. 6 48.4 57.5 66.2 19.8 21.9 25.2 28.4 8.0 5.7 6.2 7.0 -0.2 -.4 .0 .0 -7.0 -45.3 -57.6 -46.7 131. 1 125.4 146.8 169.4 45.9 42. 8 54.8 61.3 21. 7 23.9 23.4 25.0 89.9 94. 2 106.4 118.7 299,3 356. 8 385.2 422.6 111. 1 123. 1 129.9 145. 1 117.6 149. 1 161.6 172.7 43.9 54.6 61. 1 67.4 20.9 23.2 26.8 29. 1 5.3 6.8 5.8 8.3 -.5 .0 .0 .0 -10.7 -70.6 -53. 6 -48. 1 366.6 1977: I !!___ 371.4 III.. 374.3 !¥„__ 385.5 168.3 167.0 167. 6 174.8 58.4 61.8 62.0 62. 9 24.4 24.8 25.4 25.6 115.5 117.7 119.3 122.2 403.9 411.7 430.7 444. 1 138.3 142.9 146.8 152.2 168.6 168.2 175.7 178.3 62. 1 65.4 70.9 71. 1 28. 1 28.8 28.9 30.7 6.7 6.4 8.4 11.8 .0 .0 .0 .0 -37.3 -40.3 -56.4 -58.6 396.2 1978: I IL.__ 424.8 III*>_ 176.8 186.7 199. 1 59. 6 72.6 26.5 27.9 28.2 133.3 448.8 137.6 448.3 139.9 466. 1 151. 5 147.2 156. 1 180.2 180.7 188.9 73.9 75.9 77.7 33.2 34.6 36.0 10.0 10.0 7.5 .0 .0 .2 -52.6 -23.6 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget. 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES [1967=100] Iridustria i produ ction (se asonally ad juste d) United States Canada Japan France Germany Italy United Kingdom 1971 - 109.6 119.7 1972 129. 8 1973 129.3 1974 117.8 1975 129.8 1976 137.0 1977 1977: Dec—- 139.7 1978: Jan____ 138.8 Feb... 139.2 Mar__- 140. 9 Apr — 143.2 May __ 143.9 June vp _ 144.9 July - 145. 9 Aug *>-. 146.7 Sept" 147.5 121. 5 130. 7 143. 0 147.5 139. 6 146. 7 152. 6 155.4 153.3 156.7 157.5 158.2 156. 7 US. 4 159.8 158.3 155. 8 167. 2 190. 5 183. 1 163.9 182.0 189.5 193. 3 194. 9 195.4 199.5 199.7 200. 3 200.5 199. 7 201.3 128 135 145 148 139 149 152 149 154 152 156 160 155 154 /155 133. 6 138. 7 147. 7 145. 1 137. 1 149. 1 152.7 156 157 152 151 152 151 155 157 155 117.5 122.7 134.6 140. 6 127.6 143. 5 144.8 137.3 143. 4 148. 0 146.6 143. 1 145. 1 143.8 144.9 142.4 110. 6 113. 2 123. 0 120.0 114.3 117.4 123. 1 122.9 123. 6 124.4 123.9 127. 4 125.8 127.9 127. 3 128.0 Period 1 __!-— Con sumer Drices (u n ad juste D GerUnited CanStates1 ada Japan France many 121.3 125. 3 133. 1 147. 7 161. 2 170.5 181.5 186. 1 187.2 188.4 189. 8 191. 5 193.3 195. 3 196. 7 197.8 199.3 126.5 132. 3 147. 9 184.0 205. 8 224.9 243.0 245. 1 246. 1 247. 1 249. 4 252. 1 253. 5 252. 1 253. 1 253.3 115. 6 121. 2 130.3 144.5 160. 1 172. 1 185.9 193.3 194.0 195.3 197. 5 197.9 200.7 202. 4 205. 4 205.5 205. 2 123.5 131. 1 140.7 160. 0 178. 9 196. 1 213. 9 221. 7 222. 8 224.4 226. 4 228. 9 231. 1 232. 8 235.7 237. 1 112.7 119. 0 127. 2 136. 1 144. 2 150. 7 156.6 157.9 158.9 159.7 160.3 160.7 161. 1 161. 5 161. 5 161.0 160.6 Italy 114.4 12L 0 134. 1 159.7 186.8 218. 1 257.6 272.0 274. 6 277.4 280.3 283. 3 286.4 288.8 291. 0 292. 3 296.2 United Kingdom 128.5 137. 6 150.3 174.4 216.5 252. 4 292.4 302. 6 304.4 306.2 308. 1 312.6 314.4 316. 8 318.2 320.3 321. 6 Source: Rational sources as reported by Department of Commerce, Bureau of International Economic Policy and Besearch, Office of International Economic Research, in International Economic Indicators. Beginning January 1978 data relate to all uitan consumers. U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Mere!landise e xports Merc landise i mports Ge neral im ports Domesti 3 exports Period Total domestic and foreign Total 1 2 exports Food, Crude Food, Crude bever- matebever- mate- Manufac2 rials ages, rials ages, tured Total and to- and and to- and goods bacco bacco fuels fuels F.a.s. valu e 5 Monthly average : 1973 1974 1974 1975 1976 1977 1977: Sept___ Oct Nov Dec 1978: Jan Feb__Mar Apr___ May___ June___ July___ Aug___ Sept___ Manufactured goods Total (c.i.f. value) 4 3,750 4, 684 6, 131 9,000 4,602 4, 257 5, 398 6,379 6, 844 6,767 6, 140 7,556 7,264 8, 464 8, 043 8,636 8, 247 8,020 8, 864 8, 195 8,748 9,000 8,654 10, 825 13, 130 13, 813 13, 432 13, 203 14, 370 13, 157 15, 381 14, 570 15, 436 14, 894 14, 607 15, 748 15, 030 16, 144 Men?handise trade balance ExExports (f.a.s.) ports Exports (f.a.s.) (f.a.s.) less less imless imports imports ports (cus(c.i.f.) /1 \ toms (f.a.s.) value) Custon is value 5, 902 8, 159 5,811 8, 045 1,078 1,269 895 1,317 3,728 5,294 5, 790 8,416 8, 159 8,966 9,596 10, 096 11, 039 9, 357 9,478 10, 999 10, 014 9,922 10, 912 11, 635 11,754 12, 126 11, 793 12, 469 13, 429 8,045 8,842 9,456 9, 915 1, 269 1, 399 1,436 1, 332 1, 466 1,023 1, 135 1,472 1,281 1,531 1,604 1,693 1,897 1,963 1, 844 2,008 1,851 1, 317 1,266 1,341 1, 548 1,531 1,466 1,500 1,493 1,402 1, 282 1,483 1,699 1,781 1, 930 1, 636 1,758 1,881 5,294 5, 913 6,437 6,681 7,518 6,277 6,382 7,463 6, 739 6,674 7, 145 7,562 7, 548 7, 751 7,859 8, 232 8,720 8 ? 354 8, 048 10, 084 12, 307 12, 942 12, 587 12, 407 13, 474 12, 381 14, 440 13, 699 14, 496 13, 992 13, 723 14, 779 14, 090 15, 120 Total excludes Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program. 3 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. 3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. 4 C.i.f. (cost, insurance, and freight) import value at first port of entry in the United States. Data for 1973 are estimates. 3 770 892 F.a.s. 892 827 991 1, 186 1, 115 998 962 1, 442 1,276 1,363 1,370 1, 370 1,313 1, 135 1,323 1, 141 1,298 1, 120 2,653 value 3 2,672 2, 718 3,457 4,463 4,571 4, 680 4,771 3,900 3,912 4, 362 3,928 4, 139 4, 461 4,221 4, 147 4,414 4,666 112 ~~* *<o / -195 —257 —195 918 853 —581 —488 —2, 297 2,211 -1, 967-1, 903 -3, 314 -3,230 -3,011 -2, 929 -2, 581 -2, 475 -2,455 -2, 367 -4, 649-4,518 -2, 915 -2, 787 -2, 983-2,861 -2,358 -2,238 -1, 702 -1, 597 -3, 082-2,987 -1,706 -1,621 -1, 824 -1, 691 -229 -841 —841 312 — 1, 229 3,034 -2, 775 -4, 074 -3,725 -3, 371 -3, 143 -5,459 -3, 658 -3, 801 -3, 141 -2,482 -3, 956 -2, 561 -2, 715 « F.a.s. (free alongside ship) value basis: at U.S. port of exportation for exports and at foreign port of exportation for imports. NOTE,—Data beginning 1975 not strictly comparable with earlier data. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the second quarter, the current account deficit fell to $3.3 billion, down from $6.9 billion in the first quarter, as the merchandise trade deficit fell $3.4 billion to $7.8 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES -10 1970 .1973 1972 1971 1974 1976 '1975 1977 1978 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC 'ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted] M erehandise Inve;stment in come3 12 Net Period Ex- ports 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 Im- ports Net Hal u<ti— ance 43, 319 -45,579 -2,260 49, 381 -55,797 -6,416 71, 410 -70,499 911 98, 306 - 103, 649 -5,343 9,047 107, 088 -98, 041 114, 694 -124,047 -9,353 120, 555 -151,658 -31,103 -36,496 -7,017 -37,258 -6,628 -38,265 -7,253 -39,639 -10,205 1977:1--II.__ III__ IV_. 29, 479 30, 630 31, 012 29, 434 1978: !___ II p_ 30, 664 -41, 865 -11,201 35, 067 -42, 869 -7, 802 1 2 Re- ceipts Payments and transportation receipts Other services, net 3 Balance on goods and serv-3 ices Remittances, pensions, and other uni— lateral transfers l Balance on current account 7,252 8,150 12, 042 15, 457 12, 795 15, 933 17, 507 -2,893 -3,621 -2,287 -2,080 -876 -3,197 -3,601 -3,610 -4, 185 4,599 4,487 4,610 3,812 568 295 467 5 -907 -759 -677 -701 1,136 1, 171 1,260 1,183 9,381 -4, 503 9,917 -5,297 4,878 4,620 210 575 -823 -630 1,361 -5, 576 -1,282 -6, 858 1,329 -1,908 -1,353 -3,261 12, 688 -5,436 14, 694 -6,544 21, 697 — 9, 655 27, 541 -12,084 25, 359 - 12, 564 29, 244 -13, 311 32, 100 -14,593 7,796 8,088 8,220 7,997 Excludes military grants. Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. * Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. 36 NA+ 131 tJu military transactions Nettravel -2,315 -3,028 -3,086 -3,105 -2, 522 312 -2,245 1,334 -3,044 2,509 2,294 2,789 -2, 125 3, 185 10, 766 3,975 8,905 4,617 23, 060 4,714 9,361 4,749 -10,558 -1,622 -1,434 -1,594 -5,905 -3,701 -1,407 -3,854 -5,979 -3,881 6,885 -7, 186 1,719 -4,615 18, 445 -5, 022 4,339 -4, 708 -15,265 -1, 126 -1,243 -1,277 - 1, 064 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. -2, 748 -2, 677 -2, 871 -6, 969 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued Foreign official assets in the U.S. fell by $4.9 billion in the second quarter of 1978, almost offsetting the accumulation of other foreign assets in the U.S./ accumulation of U.S. assets abroad was $5.0 billion, led by only a $4.1 accumulation of U.S. private assets abroad in the wake of the declining value of the dollar. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 130 BILLIONS OP DOLLARS 301 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 20 20 CHANGE IN FOREIGN ASSETS IN THE U.S., NET A 10 \ 10 /\ -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 1970 1978 1971 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF'COMMERCE Period [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] 1 Stati stical U. S. assets abroad, net Fore ign assets in the U. S., net [merease/eapita 1 outflow (-)] discre pancy [inci*ease/capi1;al inflow ( + ) ] « AllocaForeigri official tions Of ass ets of Total which : special (sum of Seasonal U.S. Other U.S. Assets of Other drawing the adjustTotal official U.S. private2 Total rights foreign foreign items ment reserve assets Govern(SDR) official assets with sign discrepTotal assets 1 2 ment reserve reversed) ancy assets agencies 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 - 12, 475 2,348 - 1, 884- 12, 939 22, 987 32 - 1, 568- 12, 925 21, 696 -14,461 - 22, 823 209 -2,644 -20, 388 18, 663 -34, 712 - 1, 434 366 -33,643 34, 677 __ 3^ 444 -607 -3,470 -35,368 15, 550 -50,608 -2,530 -4,213 -43,865 36, 969 -34,650 -231 -3, 679 -30,740 50, 869 26, 895 10, 705 6,299 10, 981 6,907 18, 073 37, 124 27, 405 -3,907 10, 322 10, 991 5, 145 12, 364 10, 257 23, 696 5,259 8,643 13, 080 18, 897 35, 480 13, 746 1977: I II III___ IV____ - 1, 334 - 12, 003 -6,615 - 14, 700 5,451 7,884 8,246 15, 543 4,946 -2,962 7,467 6,180 7,914 6,005 4,522 15, 153 1978: I -15,036 II *_ -4,966 -388 -949 3 2,490 6 -795 -11,214 14, 064 151 -1,098 -5,668 14, 251 -838 - 13, 862 20, 065 246 -896 -14,386 18, 095 15, 760 14, 956 329 -1, 151 -4, 144 229 -4, 924 -4,614 1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDR), convertible currencies, and ihe2 U.S. reserve position in the IMF. Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. 2,336 5, 152 717 -9,822 710 - 1, 966 -2, 725 - 1, 684 5,449 9,300 -954 U.S. official reserve assets, net * ( unadjusted, end of period) 12, 167 13, 151 14, 378 15, 883 16, 226 18, 747 19, 312 1,592 131 19, 120 616 -178 19, 156 -4,766 -2,230 18, 988 1,604 2,276 19, 312 3,798 7,998 160 19, 192 12 18, 864 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE POSTAGE AND FEES PAID U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 375 DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS WASHINGTON, D.C. 2O4O2 OFFICIAL BUSINESS First-Class Mail Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, Page Gross National Product , Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income. , • • Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 , EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates •••• Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries , Productivity and Related Data, Private Business Economy 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 • PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade Manufacturers* Shipments, Inventories, and New Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices Changes in Producer Prices Changes in Consumer Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY Money Stock Private Liquid Asset Holdings—Nonfinancial Investors Consumer Instalment Credit Bank Loans, Investments, and Reserves Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields , 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402 Price $1.30 (single copy). 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