Full text of Economic Indicators : October 1954

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83d Congress, 2d Session

Economic Indicators
OCTOBER 1954

Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report




by the Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1954

JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan, Chairman
RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont, Vice Chairman
RICHARD M. SIMPSON (Pennsylvania)
HENRY O. TALLE (Iowa)
GEORGE H. BENDER (Ohio)
EDWARD J. HART (New Jersey)
WRIGHT PATMAN (Texas)
RICHARD BOLLING (Missouri)

ARTHUR V. WATKINS (Utah)
BARRY GOLDWATER (Arizona)
FRANK CARLSON, (Kansas)
JOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama)
PAUL H. DOUGLAS (Illinois)
J. WILLIAM FULBRIGHT (Arkansas)

GROVER W. ENSLEY, Staff Director
JOHH W. LEHMAN, Clerk

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
ARTHUR F. BURNS, Chairman
NEIL H. JACOBY
WALTER W. STEWART

[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [S. J. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled. That the Joint
Committee on the Economic Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators,"
and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the
Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two
copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint
Committee on the Economic Report; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for
distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed
for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
Charts drawn by Graphics Unit, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce

11



Contents
THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY

Page.

The Nation's Economic Accounts
Gross National Product

1
2

PRICES
Consumer Prices
Wholesale Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
Stock Prices

3
4
5
6

EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
Labor Force
Nonagricultural Employment—Selected Industries
Average Weekly Hours—Selected Industries
Average Hourly Earnings—Selected Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries

7
8
9
10
11

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production
Weekly Production—Selected Indicators
Production of Selected Manufactures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
New Construction
New Housing Starts
Inventories and Sales
Merchandise Exports and Imports

12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

PURCHASING POWER
National Income
Corporate Profits
Personal Income
Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving
Per Capita Disposable Income
Farm Income

21
22
23
24
25
26

CREDIT, MONEY, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
Bank Loans and Investments
Consumer Credit.
Bond Yields and Interest Rates
Money Supply
Federal Budget Receipts and Expenditures
Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public




„

27
28
29
30
31
32

ill

THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS
Preliminary estimates of total income and expenditures in the third quarter reflect the continued stability of over-ail
economic activity since the early part of the year.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
ANNUAL TOTALS

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

CONSUMERS
300

250
SAVING

DISPOSABLE INCOME

_*—

f

EXPENDITURES

J

100

J

I

1

BUSINESS

_G^OVERNMENT- FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL
EXPENDITURES FOR GOODS
AND SERVICES

EXCESS OF RECEIPTS

RECEIPTS
(LESS TRANSFER PAYMENTS)

I

1942

I

1944

I

1946

I

I

I

1948

I

I

1950

I

I/ 1

I

1952

1954

195!

1952

1953

1954

>-S NET FOREIGN INVESTMENT AND GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT.
gj INCLUDES UNDISTRIBUTED CORPORATE PROFITS AND CORPORATE INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT, AND CAPITAL CONSUMPTION ALLOWANCES.
I/ PRELIMINARY ESTIMATESNOTE: THE SUM OF THE THREE INCOME AND RECEIPT ITEMS SHOWN IN THIS CHART IS NOT EQUAL TO THE SUM OF THE EXPENDITURES, OR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT,
BECAUSE OF STATISTICAL DISCREPANCIES. FOR EXPLANATION AND USE OF THIS ARRANGEMENT, SEE SENATE REPORT NO. 1295, JOINT ECONOMIC REPORT,
PP. 92-93, 99-105, AND THE ANNUAL ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JANUARY 1953, APPENDIX A.
SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC AD'




GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
The gross national product remained unchanged between the second and third quarters, according to preliminary
estimates. A further decline in Federal expenditures was offset by increases in consumer expenditures and investment.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

400
ANNUAL TOTALS

350

300

7
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES
OF GOODS AND SERVICES

I
1946

1948

1950

I

I
1951

1952

1954

-^PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED).

[Billions of dollars]
Government purchases of goods and services
Personal Gross
Total
Federal
conNet
private
gross
sump- domestic foreign
State
Less:
national
tion
investGovernand
Total
Other
1
Total National
product expend- investment
local
ment
security
ment
itures
sales

Period

1939
1944
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953

COUNCIL Of ICONOMIC ADVISERS

_

1953: First quarter
Second quarter. _ _ _
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1954: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter 2

91. 1
211. 4
209.2
232. 2
257.3
257.3
285. 1
328. 2
346. 1
364. 9

67.6
109. 8
146. 6
165. 0
177. 6
180. 6
194. 0
208. 3
218.4
230. 1

9.3
7. 1
27. 1
29. 7
41. 2
32. 5
51.2
56. 9
50. 7
51.4

361. 8
369.9
367. 2
360. 5
355. 8
356. 0
356. 0

228. 6
230. 8
231.2
229. 7
230. 5
233. 1
234. 0

51. 9
55. 9
52.4
45.5
44. 5
45.6
46. 0

5.2
0.9
13.3
1.3
96. 5
88. 6
-2. 1
89. 0
21.2
20. 9
30. 9
4. 6
15. 8
13.3
8.9
28. 6
16. 0
36. 6
21. 0
2. 0
25.4
19.3
43. 6
.5
42. 0
22. 1
18. 5
-2.2
37.3
62. 8
41. 0
.2
77. 2
48. 5
54. 0
—.2
52. 0
85. 2
60. 1
-1.9
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
58. 1
83. 0
51. 0
-1.8
62. 2
86. 6
54.3
-3.3
52. 3
85. 4
60. 3
-1. 8
59. 8
50. 6
86. 0
-.6
46. 9
55. 0
— 1. 1
81. 9
44. 7
78.3
51. 3
-1.0
76. 5
49. 3
43. 3
-.5

3.9
1. 6
2.5
3.8
5. 6
6.6
3.9
4. 2
5.8
8. 5

0.0
1.2
2. 7
1.3
.5
.4
.3
.4
.4
.4

8.2
7.5
10.0
12.8
15. 6
18. 2
19.9
21. 8
23. 2
25. 1

7. 7
8.3
8.4
9. 6
8.4
6.9
6. 3

.5
.4
.4
.3
.3
.3
.3

24 9
24. 4
25. 1
26. 2
26. 9
27.0
27. 2

i iueJuut* expenditures for military services, international security and foreign relations (except foreign loans), development and control of atomic energy, promotion of the merchant marine, promotion of defense production and economic stabilization, and civil defense. For further details, see Annual Economic Report of the
Presifffnf, January 1054 (p. 167), and Survey of Current Pusivess, July 1953 (p. 10). These expenditures are not comparable with the "national security" category in
The JRitdott of tht U. S. Onvernment for the Fiscal Year Ending June 80,1966, and shown on p. 31 of Economic Indicators.
• Pn'HmiriHry estimates by Council-of Economic Advisers,
NOTE.—The national income and expenditure series have been revised by the Department of Commerce. For details see Survey of Current Business, July 1954.
Detail will noi necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).




PRICES

CONSUMER PRICES

Consumer prices declined 0.2 percent in August, largely because of a drop of 0.6 percent in food prices—the first
decline in the food index since March.
I N D E X , 1947-49 = 100

INDEX, 1 9 4 7 - 4 9 = 100

140

140

SOURCE:

DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISEES

[1947-49=100]
Period
1939 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average
1950 monthly average
1951 month Iv average
1952 monthly average
1953 monthly average.
1953: July
August
September
October
November
December
1954" January
February
March
April
_
Mav
Jm.r
July
- - AlHlUBt . .

> Not




_

..

__

__

All
items

Food

59.4
69.7
76.9
83.4
102.8
101.8
102. 8
111.0
113.5
114. 4
114.7
115.0
115. 2
115.4
115.0
114. 9
115.2
115.0
114. 8
114. 6
115. 0
115. 1
115. 2
1 1 5. 0

47. 1
61.3
68.9
79.0
104. 1
100.0
101. 2
112.6
114.6
112. 8
113.8
114. 1
113. 8
113.6
112. 0
112. 3
113. 1
112. 6
112. 1
112. 4
113. 3
113. 8
114. 6
113. 9

Housing
Total

Rent

C11)
C1)
C)
C1)
101.7
103.3
106. 1
112. 4
114. 6
117. 7
117. 8
118. 0
118. 4
118. 7
118.9
118.9
118.8
118. 9
139. 0
118. 5
118. 9
118. 9
119.0
119. 2

86.6
90.4
90.9
91.4
100.7
105.0
108. 8
113. 1
117. 9
124. 1
123.8
125. 1
126.0
126.8
127.3
127.6
127. 8
127. 9
128.0
128.2
128.3
128. 3
128. 5
128. 6

Apparel

Transportation

52.5
64.9
76.3
83. 7
103.5
99.4
98. 1
106. 9
105.8
104. 8
104.4
104.3
105. 3
105.5
105. 5
105. 3
104.9
104. 7
104.3
104. 1
104. 2
104. 2
104. 0
103.7

C1)
0)
0)1
C)
100.9
108.5
111. 3
118. 4
126. 2
129. 7
129.7
130.6
130. 7
130.7
130. 1
128. 9
130.5
129.4
129. 0
129. 1
129. 1
128. 9
126.7
126. 6

Source: Department of Labor.

Reading Other
and
goods
Medical Personal
and
recreacare
care
tion
services
C1)
C11)
C)
C1)
100.9
104. 1
106.0
111. 1
117.2
121.3
121. 5
121.8
122.6
122.8
123.3
123.6
123.7
124. 1
124. 4
124. 9
125. 1
125. 1
125.2
125.5

C1)
(')1
C)
C1)
101.3
101. 1
101. 1
110. 5
111. 8
112.8

112.6
112.7
112.9
113.2
113.4
113.6
113. 7
113.9
114. 1
112.9
113.0
112. 7
113.3
113.4

C1)
C1)
P)

P)

100.4
104. 1
103.4
106.5
107.0
108.0
107.4
107.6
107.8
108.6
108. 9
108.9
108.7
108. 0
108.2
106.5
106.4
106.4
107.0
106. 6

C1)
C11)
C)
C1)
100.5
103.4
105.2
109.7
115.4
118.2
118.3
118.4
118. 5
119.7
120.2
120.3
120.3
120. 2
120. 1
120.2
120. 1
120. 1
120.3
120.2

WHOLESALE PRICES
The average level of wholesale prices declined somewhat in September, due to a drop in the prices of farm products
and processed foods.
INDEX, 1947-49* 100

120

1950

1952

1951

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1947-49=100]

1942 monthly average..
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average
1950 monthly average
1951 monthlv average
1952 monthlv average.
1953 monthlv average
1953: August.
_.
September
October
November
December
1 954 : January
February
March
April
».
May
_
June
July..
August
September
Week ended:
1954: October 5.
Source: Department of Labor.




64. 2
104 4
99. 2
103 1
114. 8
111. 6
110. 1
110. 6
111. 0
110. 2
109. 8
110. 1
110. 9
110. 5
110. 5
111. 0
110. 9
110. 0
110. 4
110. 5
110. 0

59.2
107. 3
92. 8
97. 5
113. 4
107. 0
97.0
96.4
98. 1
95.3
93. 7
94.4
97.8
97.7
98.4
99. 4
97. 9
94. 8
96.2
95. 8
93.6

59. 1
106. 1
95.7
99. 8
111. 4
108. 8
104. 6
104.8
106.6
104.7
103. 8
104.3
106.2
104. 8
105. 3
105. 9
106. 8
105. 0
106. 5
106.4
105. 5

Other than
farm products
and foods
(industrial)
68.3
103.4
101.3
105.0
115.9
113.2
114.0
114.9
114. 7
114. 6
114. 5
114.6
114. 6
114.4
114. 2
114. 5
114.5
114.2
114. 3
114.4
114.4

109. 6

91.4

104. 0

114.6

All commodities

Period

.

.

.

_.

Farm
products

Processed
foods

PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received by farmers declined 2 percent during the month ended September 15. Lower prices for hogs, eggs,
chickens, soybeans, and potatoes more than offset the higher prices for cattle, milk, cotton, wheat, and tobacco.
Prices paid by farmers decreased 1 percent and the parity ratio dropped 1 point to 88.
NDEX, 1910H4 MOO

325

275

I949

1954

• R / r r i O OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO PARITY INDEX.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1910-14=1001
Prices paki for items
use d i n

Period

Family living
1939 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1946 monthly average,
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average._
1950 monthly average
1951 monthly average
1952 monthly average.
1953 monthly average
1953: August 15
September 15
October 15
November 15
December 15
.
1954: January 15
February 15
March 15
April 15..
..
May 15
.. .
June 15
J u l v 15
August 15 .
September 15

- . --

120
149
175
202
251
243
246
268
271
270
273
270
270
270
270
271
271
272
273
276
276
277
277
274

Production
121
148
173
191
250
238
246
273
274
253
248
247
246
248
250
254
255
255
256
256
252
247
250
251

Parity index
(prices paid,
and wage rates
123
152
182
208
260
251
256
282
287
279
279
277
276
277
278
282
282
283
283
284
282
280
282
280

Prices
received
by farmers

Parity ratio l

95
159
197
2236
287
250
258
302
288
258
255
257
249
249
254
259
258
256
257
258
248
247
251
246

77
105
108
113
110
100
101
107
100
92
91
93
90
90
91
92
91
90
91
91
88
88
89
88

2

» Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to parity index.
»Includes wartime subsidy payments paid on beef cattle, sheep, lambs, milk, and butterfat between October 1943 and Jane 1946.
Bonrce: Department of Agriculture.
2
 53683—54



STOCK PRICES
In September, stock prices continued to increase.
INDEX, 1939 = 100

INDEX, 1939 = 100
WEEKLY AVERAGE

WEEKLY INDEX

AA/

/

TRANSPORTATION *^NV

*

/•"
MANUFACTURING

*A/A

f*

Jf

\/

"H^JT

p^

COMPOSITE INDEX

1941 42 43 44 45 46 47

48 49 50

51

52 53

I 1 1 1 1 1

I I
i i
J F M A M J J A S O N D

F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J

1952

I I 1
J A S O N D

1954

1953

COUNCIt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE. SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION.

[1939=100]

Compositel
index

Period
Weekly average:
1940
1946
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953

._ ._

1953: August
September
October _ _ _ .
November
Peeem ber
1954: January . . . .
February
March
April
May
«.
June _
July
August
September
Week ended:
1954: September 3
10
17
24
October
12
S

Manufacturing
Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable
goods

Transportation

Utilities

Trade,
finance,
and
service

Mining

942
149. 4
127. 7
154. 1
184.9
195.0
193.3

93.4
146.6
132. 1
165 7
206. 8
220.2
220. 1

92.5
138. 6
116. 0
150. 2
178.5
188.8
192.6

94.2
154.5
147.2
180.2
233. 1
249.3
245. 2

99.2
202. 4
136.0
160.0
199.0
220. 6
218. 7

99.9
121.0
98. 1
108.9
112.6
117.9
121. 5

90.4
204. 3
160.7
183.8
207.7
206.0
207. 1

75.6
125.5
129.4
143. 5
204.9
275.7
240.5

190.2
181.0
187.1
191.2
193. 4
198.4
203. 1
207. 1
215.8
223.2
223.9
233.0
237. 1
240. 4

216. 6
205.0
213. 5
218.7
221. 8
228. 4
233. 9
239. 8
252. 9
262. 9
263. 4
275.3
280. 0
285. 6

185.9
175.2
184. 4
190.4
192. 1
198. 8
204.2
209. 6
223. 2
232. 5
236.6
254.3
257.0
260.2

244. 7
232.2
240.2
244.8
249. 1
255.5
261.2
267.5
280.3
290.8
288.0
294. 4
301.0
308. 8

217.2
198. 9
202. 4
203.8
200. 0
206.2
214. 6
212. 3
211.6
220.6
225. 4
233. 5
237. 1
236.0

120. 7
118.8
121.4
123.2
124.5
126. 1
128.4
130.4
131. 8
134.2
134.3
138. 6
140.8
139. 8

206. 3
198.0
201. 2
207.0
209.2
213.0
216.0
214.6
219.8
225.6
228.3
236.0
243. 1
247.2

236. 3
219.2
218. 8
231.4
229. 6
238.6
250.3
259.2
265.9
269. 6
266. 3
257. 2
262. 6
267. 8

235. 1
237.4
242. 2
246.9
245. 7
247.4

277. 7
281. 1
288. 5
295. 3
293. 6
296.2

253. 3
256. 5
262. 6
268. 5
268. 0
271. 1

299. 9
303.5
312. 1
319. 7
317. 1
319.0

231. 1
234.2
236. 8
241. 8
237.4
239.0

139. 7
139. 4
139.8
140. 2
140.3
140.2

242. 1
245.4
247.9
253.2
250. 6
253.6

266. 3
268. 6
267.8
268. 6
270. 0
275.3

i Includes 265 common stocks: 98 for durable goods manufacturing, 72 for nondurable goods manufacturing, 21 for transportation, 29 for utilities, 31
for trade, finance, and service, and 14 for mining. Indexes are for weekly closing prices.
i Data became available after chart was prepared.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.




EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
LABOR FORCE
Unemployment declined between early August and early September, as is usual for this time of the year.
was also a fall in employment, but it was smaller than the normal seasonal amount.

\

1940

AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT •—**

42

44

46

48

50

There

""""""

52

* 14 Y E A R S OF ASE AND OVER.

Period

68-area sample : 6
1939 monthly average. _
1944 monthly average..
1949 monthly average..
1950 monthly average.^
1953 monthly average..
1953: August
September
October
November
December
1954: January
February __ .
230-area sample:fi
1954: January
-February
M arch
April
M av
June
.July
AugustSeptember

Total
labor
force (including
armed
forces)

Civilian
labor
force

55, 600
66, 040
63, 721
64, 749
67, 001
68, 238
67, 127
66, 954
66, 874
66, 106
65, 589
66, 905

55, 230
54, 630
62, 105
63, 099
63, 453
64, 648
63, 552
63, 404
63, 353
62, 614
62, 137
63,491

45, 750
53, 960
58, 710
59, 957
61, 929
63, 408
62, 306
62, 242
61, 925
60, 764
59, 778
60, 106

9,610
8, 950
8,026
7, 507
6,683
7,474
7,262
7, 159
6, 651
5,438
5,345
5,626

36, 140
45, 010
50, 684
52, 450
55, 245
55, 934
55. 044
55; 083
55, 274
55, 326
54, 433
54, 480

185
92
142
170
141
133
183
195
273
177

9,480
670
3,395
3, 142
1,524
1,240
1,246
1, 162
1,428
1, 850
2,359
3,385

66, 292
67, 139
67,218
67, 438
67, 786
68, 788
68, 824
68, 850
68, 565

62, 840
63, 725
63, 825
64, 063
64, 425
65, 445
65, 494
65, 522
65, 244

59,
60,
60,
60,
61,
62,
62,
62,
62,

5,284
5,704
5,875
6,076
6,822
7, 628
7,486
6,928
7,527

54, 469
54, 351
54, 225
54, 522
54, 297
54, 470
51 661
55, 349
54, 618

427
216
236
216
294
229
298
143
198

3,087
3,671
3,725
3, 465
3,305
3, 347
3.346
3, 245
3, 099

Employment
Total

Agricultural

l

Temporary s
Nonagri- layoffs
cultural

Unemployment 8
Insured
unemploy%of
ment
(thousands4
Number civilian
labor of
persons)
force

Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over

753
055
100
598
119
098
148
276
145

17.2
1.2
5.5
5.0
2.4
1.9
2. 0
1.8
2. 3
3.0
3.8
5.3
4.9
5. 8
5.8
5. 4
5. 1
5. 1
5. 1
5. 0 I
4. 8 1

2,470
1,599
1 } 058
868
830
897
1, 198
1,632
2,205
2, 362
2,205
2, 362
2, 389
2, 383
2,247
2,082
2, 037
1,871
6
1,768

1
Includes parr-time workers and those with jobs but not at work for such reasons as vacation, illness, bad weather, temporary layoff, and industrial disputes.
2 Thenumhor of temporary layoffs, which the Census Bureau includes in the employment figure (see footnote
l), is shown separately so as to afford a basis for fur3
ther analysis of employment and'unemployment.
See footnote 2.
« All programs. Weekly average for period. For description of series, see Labor Market and Employment Security, April 1954,
» Pertains la labor force'data only. Data prior to 1953 not compaiable with subsequent data.
« Preliminary estimate.
tj
Sources: Department of Commerce (labor force) and Department of Labor (insured unemployment).
*
*




NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
Employment in nonagricultural establishments, taken as a whole, increased by more than the normal seasonal
amount between the middle of August and the middle of September. In manufacturing, employment rose seasonally in the durable goods sector and more than seasonally in the nondurable goods sector.
MILLIONS OF WAGE
AND SALARY WORKERS

MILLIONS OF WAGE
AND SALARY WORKERS

DURABLE MANUFACTURING

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING

A

S

O

N

D

J

CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

!

[Thousands of wage and salary workers
Period

Manufacturing

Total
Total

1939
1948
1949
1950
1951.
1952
1953
1953: August
SeptemberOctober
NovemberDecember.
1954: January
February __
March
April

30, 287
44, 382
43, 295
44, 696
47, 289
48, 306
49, 660
49, 962
50, 200
50, 180
49, 851
50, 197
48, 147
47, 880
47, 848
48, 068
May
47, 935
June
48, 137
Julv.. 2
47, 808
August __ 2_ 48, 031
September 48,511

10, 078
15, 321
14, 178
14, 967
16, 104
16,334
17,259
17,537
17, 510
17,301
16, 988
1 6, 765
16,434
16, 322
16,234
16,000
15, 836
15, 888
15, 627
15, 860
16,007

Durable Nondugoods rable goods
5,394
4,683
8,312
7,010
7,473
6, 705
6,882
8,085
7,024
9,080
9,340
6,994
10, 129
7,131
7,345
10, 192
10, 145
7,365
10, 072
7,229
7,091
9,897
9,773
6,992
9,591
6,843
9,480
6,842
6,845
9,389
9,260
6, 740
9, 152
6,684
9, 123
6,765
8,863
6,764
8,879
6,981
8,922
7,085

Contract Wholesale Finance,
construc- and retail service,
trade
etc.
tion
1, 150
2,169
2, 165
2,333
2, 603
2, 634
2,644
2,825
2,866
2,889
2,789
2,632
2,349
2, 356
2,415
2, 535
2,634
2, 729
2,795
2,840
2, 807

6,612
9,519
9,513
9,645
10,012
10, 281
10, 533
10, 392
10, 523
10, 669
10, 828
11,361
10, 421
10,310
10, 305
10, 496
10, 375
10, 414
10, 377
10, 353
10, 483

4, 703
6,636
6,736
6,894
7, 140
7,380
7,511
7, 668
7,607
7, 546
7,501
7,475
7,410
7,424
7,463
7,581
7,644
7,705
7,764
7,760
7, 716

Govern- Transportation
ment
and
(Federal,
public
State,
utilities
local)
2,912
3,987
4,141
5,614
3,949
5, 837
5,992
3,977
6, 348
4, 166
6,609
4,185
6,645
4,224
6,422
4,274
4,265
6,590
6, 692
4,257
6,700
4,216
6,955
4,187
6,659
4,069
6,639
4,039
6,667
3,992
6,699
4,008
6,701
4,008
4,032
6, 625
6,467
4,043
6, 454
4,028
6, 744
4,028

Mining
845
982
918
889
916
885
844
844
839
826
829
822
805
790
772
749
737
744
735
7£6
726

1
Includes all full and part-time wage and salary workers in nonaerieultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period
enninp nearest the 1Mb (<f the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this
tahle n »i comparable with estimates of nonapricultnral employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 7) which include pro, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are
i fin enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
•liminfiry estimates
JS'c TK.— Beginning with 195J .data have been adjusted to first quarter 1953 benchmark levels.
Source: Department of Labor.

8



AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
The average workweek of factory production workers in September was 39.7 hours, the same as in August.
slight increase is usual at this time of the year.
HOURS PER WEEK

A very

HOURS PER WEEK

DURABLE MANUFACTURING

NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING

I I I l II

M i l l

11 I 1 \ I t I I I I I

o l l I I I I I I I

BUILDING CONSTRUCTION

RETAIL TRADE

SOURCE^ DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

CRUNCH Of FCONOMIC ADVISERS

[Hours per week, for production workers or nonsupervisory employees]
Manufacturing r
Period

1939
1943
1946
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1953: August
September..
October
November „
December
1954* January
February .
March
April
May
June .
July 2
August
September 2

_

Total

„.

_

.

.....
._
_--

.. . ...

...
.

_.

...
. .
. . . .

. _

-.

37.7
44. 9
40. 4
40. 1
39. 2
40. 5
40. 7
40. 7
40. 5
40. 5
39. 9
40. 3
40. 0
40. 2
39. 4
39. 6
39. 5
39.0
39. 3
39. 6
39. 4
39. 7
39. 7

Durable
goods

38.0
46.6
40. 2
40.5
39. 5
41.2
41. 6
41. 5
41.3
41. 1
40.6
41. 0
40. 6
40. 8
40. 1
40. 2
40. 0
39. 7
39. 9
40. 0
39. 7
40. 1
40. 1

Nondurable
goods

37.4
42.5
40. 5
39. 6
38. 8
39. 7
39. 5
39.6
39.5
39.6
39.0
39.3
39. 1
39.3
38. 5
38. 8
38. 8
38.0
38.5
38.9
39. 0
39.3
39. 1

T%iiil/4vn<r
-DUiicung
construction Retail trade

32.6
38.4
38. 1
137.3
36.7
36.3
37.2
38. 1
37.0
37.6
36. 1
37.7
36.7
36.3
33.9
36.0
36.4
36.5
36.7
37. 1
36 9
36.9

(3)

i Data beginning with January 1948 are not strictly comparable with tbose for earlier periods.
* Not available.
» PreliinUoi ry estimates
NOTE.—Brpinuinp with 1951, data have been revised as tbe result of adjusting employment series to & more recent benchmark.
Source: Department of Labor.




42.7
40. 3
40.7
40. 3
40.4
40.5
40. 2
39.9
39.3
39.8
39. 1
38.9
38.8
39.2
39.0
39. 1
39. 1
39. 1
3R9

(8)

39.3
39. 8
39; 8

AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
Hourly earnings of production workers in manufacturing industries averaged $1.81 in September, 2 cents more than
in both August of this year and September of last year.
DOLLARS PER HOUR

DOLLARS PER HOUR

2.00

2.60

onii
1953

RETAIL TRADE

NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING

i/

CURRENT PRICES

otLL

i i rp

F^

f

.1953 PRICES^

*

CURRENT PRICES

T

iTi i i i i 1 i [ i i fTi i i l i I i l i i il
1954
1953

o r.i 1 1 1 1951
' 1111

•^EARNINGS IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ON BASE i9S3«ioo.

-^

1 1 1 1 1 1 rTi 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 iTi 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 n

^

1952

1953

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

^

1954

COUNCIl Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[For production workers or nonsupervisory employees]
Building
Durable goods Nondurable goods
Retail trade
manufacturing
construction
manufacturing
Current
1953
Current
Current
1953
Current
1953
1953
1953
prices l
prices * prices prices 1 prices prices * prices
prices
prices l
$1. 044
$1. 220 $0. 698 $1. 345 $0. 582 $1. 121 $0. 932 $1. 796 $0. 542
1.252
.679
1.049
1.241
1. 935
. 803
1. 637
1. 059
1.485
1.392
2.027
1. 225
. 893
1.478
1.015
1.586
1. 156
1. 490
1.402 2 1. 681
1.009
2. 013
1.208
1.547
1.292
1. 171
1.481
1.422
1. 210
1.088
1. 848 2 2. 056
1.278
1. 568
1. 502
1. 410
2. 174
1. 137
1.489
1.278
1. 935
1. 325
1. 651
1. 469
1.574
2.259
1. 176
2.031
1. 308
1.710
1. 533
1.378
1. 537
1. 630
1.30
L 26
1. 53
2. 19
2. 26
1.72
1.48
1. 64
1.67
1. 33
1. 32
2.33
1.55
2.31
1.78
1. 54
1. 77
1. 68
1.61
1.40
1.40
2.48
2. 48
1.61
1.87
1.87
1. 77
1. 41
1. 40
1.60
2. 48
2. 49
1. 61
1.87
1.76
1.88
1.42
1.41
2.52
1. 62
2. 50
1. 89
1.63
1. 78
1. 90
2.52
1.42
1. 41
1. 62
2. 54
1. 61
1.88
1.90
1. 77
1.42
1.62
1.41
2.55
2. 54
1. 63
1. 88
1.89
1.78
1. 39
1. 38
2.56
2.57
1. 64
1. 63
1.89
1.79
1. 90
1. 64
2. 56
1.43
1.42
2.58
1.90
1. 65
1.91
1. 79
1.43
1.42
1. 64
2.58
2.59
1.65
1. 89
1. 90
1. 79
1.43
1.43
2. 59
2. 58
1. 65
1.90
1. 65
1.89
1. 78
2.57
1.43
1.43
2. 58
1.90
1. 65
1.65
1.90
1.80
2. 58
2. 57
1.45
1. 44
1. 65
1. 66
1. 90
1. 91
1. 80
1. 46
2. 58
2. 56
1. 65
1.45
1. 66
1.91
1. 90
1. 80
2. 58
2. 56
1. 47
1. 46
1. 66
1. 65
1. 90
1. 91
1. 79
1. 46
2. 59
2.58
1. 64
1. 63
1. 45
1. 91
1.4 90
1. 78
4
(4)
1. 66
1. 92
f)
C)

All manufacturing
Period

Current
prices
1939 __
_ _ _. $0. 633
1943
.961
1946
._
1. 086
1947
1.237
1948
1. 350
1. 401
1949
_
1950
1.465
1951
_
_ _ _ . __
1. 59
1952
1.67
1953
1.77
1.77
1953: August
1. 79
September
1.79
October
November . .
1.79
1.80
December
1954: January
1.80
February
1. 80
March
1. 79
April
1.80
May
_
1. 81
June
1. 81
July
1.80
1. 79
August3 3
September
. . 1. 81
1
En r u i n ps
:

in current prices divided by consumer price index on base 1953=100.
Duia beginning with January 1948 are not strictly comparable with those for

z

Preliminary estimates.
* Not available.

rlic,' iMTJmiv

NOTE.—Beginning with 1951, data have been revised as the result of adjusting employment series to a more recent benchmark.

10



Source: Department of Labor.

AVERAGE WEEKLY EAKJM1JMUH - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
Average weekly earnings of factory production workers rose 80 cents in September to $71.86, reflecting the increase
in the average hourly rate. Average earnings were 44 cents more than a year earlier.
DOLLARS PER WEEK

DOLLARS PER WEEK

85

100

NONDURABLE

1951

I

MANUFACTURING

1952

1953

I

I

1954

•^EARNINGS IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ON BASE 1953 = 100
SOURCE:DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISER.

[For production workers or nonsupervisory employees]
All manufacturing
Period

1939
1943
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1953:

1954:

Current
prices
$23. 86
43. 14
43.82
49. 97
. . ..
54. 14
._ . _ > .. ... .
54. 92
....
59.33
-.. -.
64.71
__
67.97
. .. .
71.69
August
...
71.69
Septem ber
71.42
October . .
72. 14
November
71. 60
December. _ _ .. .
72.36
January
.
70.92
February
71.28
March
70.71
April
70. 20
May
71. 13
June
. _
71. 68
Julv _ 3
70, 92
August
71.06
3
September
71. 86

1953
prices J
$45. 97
66. 68
60. 11
59.84
60.22
61.71
66.00
66.71
68. 52
71. 69
71.33
70.92
71. 50
71.24
72.07
70. 43
70. 93
70. 50
70.06
70. 78
71. 25
70.43
70.71
4

r)

Durable goods
manufacturing
Current
1953
prices
prices l
$26. 50
49.30
46. 49
52. 46
57. 11
58. 03
63.32
69.47
73.46
77.23
77.27
77. 14
77.90
76.73
77. 52
76. 59
76.38
76.00
75.43
76. 21
76. 40
75. 83
76. 59
76. 99

$51. 06
76. 20
63.77
62. 83
63. 53
65. 20
70. 43
71. 62
74. 05
77.23
76. 89
76.60
77.21
76. 35
77.21
76.06
76.00
75.77
75. 28
75. 83
75.94
75. 30
76.4 21

c)

Building
.Nondurable goods
Retail trade
construction
manufacturing
1953
Current
Current
Current
1953
1953
prices l
prices
prices * prices
prices l
prices
$44. .59
$21. 78 $41. 97 $30. 39 $58. 55 $23. 14
42. 29
27.36
74. 39
34. 12
52. 74
48. 13
49. 86
36.35
77. 15
41. 14
56. 24
56.43
48.69
40.66
56. 24 2 63. 30 2 75.81
46. 96
48. 78
43. 85
76. 59
68. 85
50.61
56.30
51. 61
79.72
45. 93
57. 76
70. 95
51. 41
52. 98
47.63
82.01
60.86
73. 73
54.71
52.22
50. 65
83.99
81.47
58. "6
60.27
53. 09
52. 67
88. 72
88. 01
60. 98
61. 47
55. 02
55. 02
91.76
91. 76
63.60
63.60
55. 84
56. 12
93. 15
63.44
93. 62
63.76
55.52
55. 13
90. 34
90. 97
63.57
63. 13
54. 75
55. 24
94.91
63. 67
63. 10
95. 76
54. S3
55. 10
93. 12
93.59
63.73
63.41
54. 49
54. 27
92.92
93. 29
64. 19
64.45
55. 38
55.77
86. 85
87.46
63.09
63. 53
55. 03
55. 91
92. 78
93.24
64.02
63.70
55. 74
55.91
94.00
64.02
63.83
94. 28
55. 80
55.91
93.98
94. 17
62.74
62.87
56. 41
56. 13
94.22
94. 69
63. 59
63. 91
57. 04
57. 38
95. 72
95. 15
64. 57
64. 18
58. 10
58. 51
94. 54
95. 20
64. 74
64.29
57. 82
58.4 11
95.09
95. 57
64. 13
64.45
C1
(«)
(«)
64. 91
(4)
f«)

1
2

8
Earnings in current prices divided by consumer price index on base 1953=100.
Preliminary estimates.
Data beginning with January 1948 are not strictly comparable with those for
* Not available.
earlier periods.
NOTE.—Beginning with 1951, data have been revised as the result of adjusting employment series to a more recen; benchmark.




Source: Department of Labor.

11

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
The industrial production index in September (seasonally adjusted) continued at the Ausust level of 1 24 (1947-49=
100).
I N D E X , 1947 -49

I N D E X , I947- 49 = I 00
175

= 100
175

150

125

100

1942

44

46

50

48

52

54

J F M A .M J J A S 0 N D l j F M A M J J A S O N D i J F M A M J J A S * O N D

1952

1953

1954

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES.
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE

FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

f 1947-49=100, seasonally adjusted]
Manufactures
Total
PA-rinH

production

1939
1943
1946
1947
1948
1949
I960
1951..
1952
1953
1953: August
September
October
November
December
1954: January
February.
March
April
May
June
Julv
August
September l
i Preliminary estimates.

12



.

.

.

...
_.

. . .. ..

. .
.....
...

.

....
..

58
127
90
100
104
97
112
120
124
134
136
133
132
129
126
125
125
123
123
125
124
123
124
121

Durable

Total
57
133
90
100
103
97
113
121
125
136
138
135
134
131
127
127
126
125
125
126
125
124
125
125

49
162
86
101
104
95
116
128
136
153
157
152
151
146
142
141
139
135
134
136
135
134
135
135

Nondurable
66
103
95
99
102
99
111
114
114
118
119
117
117
115
112
113
114
114
116
117
116
114
115
116

Source: Board of Governors of tfce Federal .Reserv

68
87
91
100
106
94
105
115
114
116
119
118
114
111
113
113
113
112
109
111
114
112
109
109

WEEKLY PORDUCTION - SELECTED IND1UATOKS
Stc j < I ptoductioM tcnc* !) prKcnt in September Auto assemblies were much lower than in August, due to model
c hongcovi'iN. lU'ctnc powc-t diMiibution decieased a bit, as is usual in September.

Of

f.HO»1 TONS (DAILV A V E R A G E )

COUNCIl OF ECONOMtL,ADVJSE8S

SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON SHU STEEL INSTITUTE. DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, AND W**D*S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS.

Period
Weeklv average:
1950 -_.
1951
. _1952 1953
1953: August
September
._ _
October
November
December
1954: Januarv
_ _Februarv
March
April
Mav
June
Julv
August _ .
Septem ber 3
Week ended:
1954- September 4
11
JS
25s
October
2
9s

Electric power,
Steel
by utilities
Percent
of
(millions of
Thousands theoretical
of net tons capacity 1 kilowatt-hours)

1,857
2,018
1,782
2, 141
2, 123
2,076
2, 136
2,026
1, 79S
] , 795
], 771
1, 646
] , 625
1 , 687
1, 716
1, 490
1 , 505
1,582
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,

525
502
583
637
67S
692

Bituminous
coal
(thousands of
short tons) 2

Cars and trucks (number)
Total

Cars

Trucks

96. 9
100. 9
85.8
94. 9
94. 2
92. 1
94. 7
89. 9
79. 7
75. 3
74. 3
69. 0
68. 1
70. 7
72. 0
62. 9
63. 1
66. 3

6,183
6, 958
7, 451
8, 244
8,488
8, 352
8, 331
8, 352
S, 502
8, 018
8, 576
S, 526
Si 347
8, 406
8, 684
8. 841
0, 122
9,040

1,687
1,772
1,548
1,507
1,549
1,640
1,503
1,496
1, 466
1,346
1,226
1, 146
1, 109
1, 142
1,314
1, 182
1,271
1,357

154,215
129,826
106, 837
141, 122
147, 542
129, 605
141, 796
103, 576
103, 511
138, 387
132, 416
136, 951
144, 140
144, 496
128, 247
117, 611
116, 350
82, 786

128, 364
102, 670
83, 413
117,972
123, 289
107, 966
121,547
85, 570
82, 959
114,057
110,922
115,011
122, 035
122, 338
109,078
100, 341
99, 832
67, 473

25, 851
27, 157
23, 424
23, 151
24, 253
21, 639
20, 249
18, 006
20, 552
24, 330
21, 493
21, 940
22, 105
22; 158
19, 168
17, 270
16,518
15,313

64. 0
63. 0
66. 4
68. 7
70. 4
71.0

0. 087
8, 808
9, 074
9, 072
9, 158

1, 283
1,329
1, 322
1, 356
1,332

108, 854
82; 747
71,358
69, 944
81,027
79, 858

92, 035
69, 741
57, 716
53, 760
64, 115
64, 017

16,819
13, 006
13, 642
16, 184
16,912
15, 841

• Percent of capacity based on weekly net ton capacity ot 1,906,268 for the first half nf 1950,1.&28.721 beginning July 1,1950,1,999,034 beginning January 1,1951,
2.077.040
beginning January 1,1952, 2,254.459 bepinning January 1, 1953, and 2,384.549 bepinning January 3,1954.
5
Daily average for week.
» Preliminary estimates.
Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Automotive Reports.




13

PRODUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURES
In September, there were significant but offsetting changes in output among the individual industries.
INDEX, 1947-49= 100, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

INDEX, 1947-49=100, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

150

^PRIMARY METALS

LUMBER AND
PRODUCTS

1111i I

50

50 I

I

I

I

I

I I

TRANSPORTATION
EQUIPMENT

CHEMICALS AND
ALLIED PRODUCTS

150

50 I 1
1947

1 I
49

I

I
51

I

I
53

I I I I I I I I I I I I I
1952

I I I I I I I I I I I
1953

I I I I I I I I I I I I
1954

50

I I I I
1947 49

I

I

I

51

I
53

1954

1952

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.

11947-49=100, seasonally adjusted]
Durable manufactures
Period

1939
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953

.. ..

1953: August.. _
September October . . !
November
December
1 954 '. January
February .
March .
April
Mav
August. 2
September

80
101
106
93
113
113
111
118

38
103
104
93
114
130
147
160

137
130
128
122
113
111
109
103
103
106
108
103
106 |
108

116
114
117
115
110
115
120
116
113
120
108
96
97 !

165
161
159
152
146
143
141
138
138
138
139
141
145
144

191
186
189
180
182
185
179
173
174
178
170
170
167
162

Primary
metals

. ... _

June
Julv

53
103
107
90
115
126
116
132

Transportation
equipment
48
96
102
102
120
135
154
189

_

Lumber
and
Machinery
products

' Dntn been me available after chart was prepared.
Preliminary estimates.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Syiten

1

14



Nondurable manufactures
and Chemicals
Textiles Petroleum Food
and coal beverage
and
and allied
manuproducts factures
apparel
products
63
66
80
45
97
101
99
97
104
99
103
103
99
100
97
101
110
103
110
121
122
105
106
136
123
105
137
105
130
107
107
147
106
102
102
98
95
97
98
99
1
100
1
101
J
99
1
100
199
198

132
131
129
129
128
124
126
122
124
125
124
122
121
124

108
109
108
108
103
105
106
106
107
110
108
1
105
1
106
U06

148
147
146
145
145
143
146
146
146
148
148
148
149
151

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
Gross private domestic investment increased by $400 million (seasonally adjusted annual rate) from the second to
the third quarter, according to preliminary estimates. Residential construction increased $900 million, while investment in producers' durable equipment decreased.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

70

1 7C
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

PRIVATE
DOMESTIC INVESTMENT

NEW CONSTRUCTION

PRODUCERS'DURABLE EQUIPMENT

Vx-'V
CHANGE IN BUSINESS*
INVENTORIES

1942

1944

1946

1948

1950

1952

1954

1952

1951

1954

1953

^PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED).

COUNCIL OF tCONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
Total gross
private
domestic
investment

Period

1 939.
1944
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951.
1952
1953

9.3
7. 1
27. 1
29.7
41.2
32.5
51.2
56. 9
50.7
51.4

.

- ..

New construction
Residential
nonfarm

Total

4. 8
2.7
10. 3
14. 0
17.9
17. 5
22.7
23. 3
23. 7
25.5

2. 7
.8
4.0
6.3
8.6
8.3
12. 6
11.0
11. 1
11. 9

Other

Producers'
durable
equipment

2. 1
1.9
6.3
7.7
9.3
9.2
10.1
12.4
12. 6
13.6

Change in
business
inventories

4.2
5.4
10.7
16.7
19. 1
17.8
21. 1
23.2
23. 3
24. 4

0.4
-1.0
6. 1
-1.0
4. 2
-2.7
7. 4
10. 4
3. 6
1. 5

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1 953 : First quarter.. . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . i
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter. _
__J

51.9
55. 9
52. 4
45.5

25.
25
25.
25.

0
q
6
i

11. 7
12. ?
12. 1
11. 7

13. 3
13. 7
13. 5
13. 9

24. 1
24. 4
24. 6
24. 0

2. 8
5 4
2. 0
— 4. 2

1954: First quarter _
Second quarter1
Third quarter

44. 5
45. 6
46. 0

26. 0
27 0
28 0

11. 7
12 8
13. 7

14. 3
14. ?
14. 3

22. 7
22. 4
22. 0

— 4. 2

_

!
;

38
- 40

i Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers.
NOTE.—The national in come and eipendlture series have been revised by the Department of Commerce. For details see Survey of Current Business, J u l y 1
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).




15

EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PliANT AND EQUIPMENT
According to a survey made in August, business expenditures for new plant and equipment in 1954 are expected
to total $26.7 billion, or $1.7 billion less than in 1953. Business firms anticipate spending $26.8 billion and $26.0
billion (seasonally adjusted annual rates) in the third and fourth quarters of this year, respectively.
3ILLIONS OF DOLLARS

I945

1947

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1949

1951

1954

1953

i/ SEE
SOURCE

[Billions of dollars]
M anuf aeturing
Period
1939
1945
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953...
.
1954 3 4

Total i
5.51
a 69
22.06
19.28
20. 60
25.64
26. 49
28. 39
26. 69

Total
1. 94
3.98
9. 13
7. 15
7. 49
10. 85
11. 63
12.28
11. 33

Transportation
Mining
Durable NonduraRailroads Other
goods ble goods
0.76
1. 59
3.48
2.59
3. 14
5. 17
5. 61
5.82
5. 20

1. 19
2. 39
5. 65
4.56
4. 36
5.68
6. 02
6. 46
6. 13

0.33
.38
.88
.79
. 71
.93
. 98
1. 01
1.01

0.28
.55
1.32
1.35
1. 11
1.47
1. 40
1.31
. 85

Public
utilities

Commercial and
other a

0.36
.57
1.28
.89
1. 21
1.49
1.50
1. 46
1. 40

0. 52
.50
2. 54
3. 12
3.31
3.66
3. 89
4. 55
4.27

2.08
2,70
6. 9D
5.98
6.78
7.24
7.09
7.78
7.82

1. 59
1.52
1.47
1. 36
1. 39
]. 38

4. 72
4. 46
4.29
4. 43
4. 30
4. 11

7. 94
8. 00
7.84
8. 05
7. 98
8. 03

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1953: Third quarter _ _
Fourth quarter
_>
1954: First quarter
Secon d q uarter
Third quarter 4 4
Fourth quarter _ _
1
Excludes agriculture.
1
Commercial and other
1

28. 92
28. 56
27.48
27. 19
26. 75
25. 96

12. 30
12. 22
11. 87
11. 37
11.23
10. 74

5. 76
5. 69
5. 50
5. 29
5. 22
4. 75

6. 54
6.53
6.37
6. 08
6.01
5. 99

1.06
1. 10
.95
1.06
1. 05
1. 05

1. 30
1. 26
1.06
. 92
. 80
. 65

includes trade, service, finance, communications, and construction.
Annual total is sum of seasonally unadjusted quarterly expenditures; it does not necessarily coincide with average of seasonally adjusted figures, in part
because of adjustments when necessary lor systematic tendencies in anticipatory data.
« Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures as reported by business in August 1954.
NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the
laltt-r cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Corcmeret

16



NEW CONSTRUCTION
Expenditure for new construction, seasonally adjusted, reached a new record level in September. In that month, it
was 8 percent above a year earlier.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1 3.5
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

^TOTAL CONSTRUCTION

2,5

1.5
PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL
(NONFARM3

OTHER PRIVATE

FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL

J

J

1953

1952

1954

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

."COUNCIL -OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Period
1939 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1944 monthly average 1946 moDthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthlv average
1950 monthly average
1951 monthly average
.
1952 monthly average
1953 monthly average
.- _1953: August
September
>
October
November
December
1954i January
February .
March
..
April
A»J.«,J
May
.
June
July
August
- September 2

Total new
construction
683
1, 173
438
1,000
1,806
1. 899
2, 371
2,598
2,751
2,938
2,883
2, 925
2,880
2, 936
2, 955
2,956
3,050
3,001
3,025
3,066
3,070
3,084
3, 123
3, 160

i Includes public residential construction.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.




Private construction
Residential
Total
Other
(nonfarm)
private
142
223
366
142
143
285
114
182
68
469
335
803
689
1,404
715
676
689
1,365
738
1,050
1,788
914
899
1,814
917
1,842
925
996
994
1,990
995
2,000
1,005
999
1,994
995
1,003
1,982
979
1,026
2,002
976
1,011
1,992
981
1,021
1,992
971
1,032
972
2, 004
1,036
2, 017
981
,031
1,032
2,063
,035
2, 116
1,081
,028
2, 113
1,085
,033
2, 161
1,128
,039
2, 199
1, 160
,032
2,210
1, 178

Federal,
State, and
local »
317
888
256
197
402
534
583
785
908
948
883
931
898
934
963
964
1,046
984
962
950
957
923
924
950

3 Preliminary estimates.

17

NEW HOUSING STARTS
In August, nonfarm housing starts totaled 111,000; or 19 percent higher than last year.
basis, private starts in August were at an annual rate of close to 1.2 million units.

On a seasonally adjusted

THOUSANDS OF UNITS
150

THOUSANDS OF UNITS
1 I 50
NEW NONFARM DWELLING UNITS

IOO

50

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISfRS

All new nonfarm housing units started
Period
Total
Annual totals: 1949
1950
1951 ...
1952
1953
Monthlv average: 1949
. . .
1950
1951 _.
1952
1953
1953: July
August
...
.
September
October. _ ..
N o vember
December.
1954: Januarv
February
March
April
Mav
....
June 2
.
Julv 2
2
Aueust

18

. ..

.

.

....

1, 025, 100
1, 396, 000
1, 091, 300
1, 127, 000
1, 103, 800
85, 400
116, 300
90, 900
93, 900
92, 000
96, 700
93, 200
95, 100
90, 100
81, 500
65, 800
66, 400
75, 200
95, 200
107, 700
108, 500
120, 000
112,000
111, 000

Public
36, 300
43, 800
71, 200
58, 500
35, 500
3, 000
3,600
5,900
4, 900
3,000
300
1,000
3,000
(J)
1,600
1,300
1,300
1, 300
2,000
1,200
1, 100
4,400
3, 000
1,200

Private
988, 800
1, 352, 200
1, 020, 100
1, 068, 500
1, 068, 300
82, 400
112, 700
85, 000
89, 000
89, 000
96, 400
92, 200
92, 100
90, 100
79, 900
64, 500
65, 100
73, 900
93, 200
106, 500
107, 400
115, 600
109, 000
109, 800

Seasonally adjusted annual
rates: private

1, 015, 000
988, 000
1, 014, 000
1, 050, 000
1, 077, 000
1, 060, 000
1, 056, 000
1, 152,000
1, 130, 000
1, 102,000
1, 083, 000
1, 206, 000
1, 147, 000
1. 176. 000

i Less than 50.
* Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.— Data beginning with January 3954 are based upon a revised method of estimating housing starts. In addition, revised seasonal indexes have been
applied in computing seasonally adjusted annual rates of private bousing starts from January 1946 forward.
Source: Department of Labor.




INVENTORIES AND SALES
Total sales were about $500 million (seasonally adjusted) lower in Au$ust than in July.
in manufacturing continued. Manufacturers' new orders increased.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, SEASONALLY

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, SEASONALLY

ADJUSTED

The inventory decumulation

ADJUSTED

RETAIL

TOTAL* AND MANUFACTURING

__

INVENTORIES***"^
x^T*
SALES***^

* TOTAL INVENTORIES*

TOTAL

Period

1 I1 ! 1 1M 1 1 !

J 1 J _[ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1951

1952

'INDEX, 1947-49« 100, SEASONALLY

SALES*

Manufacturing
and trade 1
InvenSales 3
tories 2

Retail
Inventories 2

Sales a

Mill

I 1 1 11

ADJUSTED

Manufacturing
Inventories 2

Sales 2

Department stores
New
orders 3

InvenSales 3
tories *
Index 1947-49=100,
seasonally adjusted

Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
1939
1946 - ...
1948
1949 .
1950
1951
1952
1953
1953: July
August
September
October
November
December
1954: January
February.
March
April
Mav
June
July
August 6
September e

20, 051
42, 892
55, 612
52, 111
64, 721
5
75', 268
77, 109
_ _ 81, 072
81, 116
81,586
82, 000
81, 805
81, 276
81,072
80, 688
80; 390
80, 093
79,516
79, 372
79, 000
_. 78. 349
78, 087

10, 802
27, 150
36, 438
34, 664
39, 917
5
44, 821
46, 080
48, 817
50, 398
48, 138
48, 652
48, 284
47, 518
47, 209
46, 450
46, 714
47, 094
47, 636
46, 014
47, 779
47,417
46, 905

5, 534
11, 852
15, 828
15,311
18,652
5
21, 239
21, 592
22, 661
22, 743
22, 775
22, 924
22, 720
22, 437
22, 661
22, 521
22, 421
22, 563
22, 690
22, 80 1
22, 600
22, 403
22. 451

3, 503
8, 541
10, 877
10, 893
13, 974
• 13, 185
13, 674
14,234
14, 469
14, 073
13,982
14, 040
14, 104
13, 932
13, 622
13,972
1 3, 900
14,242
14, 044
14,439
14,272
14, 170

11,465
24, 457
31, 693
28, 800
34, 314
42, 904
44, 190
46,722
46, 485
46, 888
47,087
47, 044
46, 909
46, 722
46,382
46, 115
45, 774
45, 183
44, 798
44, 535
44, 194
43, 878

| 1 II ! I M 11 1

IS53

5, 112
12,617
17, 630
16,416
19, 285
22, 205
23, 046
25, 271
26, 366
25, 067
25, 379
25,010
24, 256
24, 126
23, 902
23, 620
24, 064
24,418
23, 97S
24, 260
24, 055
23, 651

5, 354
33, 694
17, 350
15.903
20, 980
24. 391
23i 710
23. 846
24, 525
22, 339
22, 661
22, 163
21, 594
22, 026
20, 749
22, 016
22, 859
23,017
22, 819
22, 876
22, 551
22, 713

35
77
107
100
109
129
118
126
130
131
128
128
127
123
120
119
121
120
121
122
124
124
I

35
90
104
98
105
109
110
112
113
112
107
110
113
112
107
109
105
111
108
112
111
112
108

» Also includes wholesale. Dot shown separately In this table
* New series on retail trade beginning with 1951; not comparable with previous
' Book value, end of period.
data.
Bee &un>ry o/ Current Business, September and November 1952, for detail.
6
*4 Monthly average for year and total for month.
Preliminary estimates.
Book value, end of period, except annual data, which are monthly averages.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




19

MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
Commercial exports declined in August, while imports rose slightly. However, for the first 8 months of this year,
commercial exports were 4 percent above, and imports were 7 percent below, their levels in the corresponding period
last year. The export surplus decreased in August.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
I,60O

M I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS

1,600

1,200
MERCHANDISE EXPORTS
EXCLUDING GRANT-AID
SHIPMENTSJ/

1954

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

{Millions of dollars|
Excess of exports
(+)
4.— /
( )S
or impo rts

Merchandise exports
Period
Total *
1936-38 monthly average..
1946 monthly average.
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average
1950 monthly average
1951 monthly average
1952 monthlv average
1953 monthly average
1953: July
August
.
September
October
.
November
December
1954: January
February
March
April
.
May
June
Jnlv _ 3
A ue nsf,
1
1

...

247
812
1,054
1, 003
856
1,253
1,266
1,315
1,358
1, 186
1,256
1,259
1, 253
1,353
1,092
1, 182
1,124
1,426
1,399
1,474
1,290
1, 177

Grant-aid
shipments 2

Excluding
grant-aid
shipments

54

757

24
89
166
293
398
275
205
234
216
215
169
184
203
167
264
359
268
203

833
1, 164
1, 100
1,022
960
911
1,051
1,026
1,037
1, 137
922
998
921
1,258
1, 135
1, 114
1,022
974

Merchandise
imports

207
412
594
552
738
914
893
906
908
840
926
814
849
907
833
809
858
957
829
945
821
835

Total

-4-40
4-400
+ 460
+ 452
+ 118
+ 339
+ 373
+ 409
+ 450
+ 346
+ 330
+ 446
+ 404
+ 446
+ 258
+ 373
+ 266
+ 468
+ 570
+ 529
+ 468
+ 342

Excluding
grant-aid
shipments
+ 345
+ 95
+ 250
+ 207
+ 116
+ 52
+ 71
+ 126
+ 212
+ 188
+ 231
+ 89
+ 189
+ 63
+ 301
+ 306
+ 169
+ 201
+ 139

ImincJi's shipments under the various grant-aid programs; for some of these programs separate data are not available.
))<>i!inninp with 1950, figures include only Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Mutual Security
oprnm.
Shipments (or the first 6 months of the program (July-December 1960) amounted to 282 million dollars.
1
Preliminary estimates.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Defense.
OH
K om— Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.




NATIONAL INCOME
According to preliminary estimates, employee compensation rose $1/2 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate)
during the third quarter, while farm income declined $1 billion. Other major components showed very little change.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
350

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

350
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

300

300

*TOTAL NATIONAL
INCOME

250

200
-COMPENSATION
OF EMPLOYEES

150

150

100

100

PROPRIETORS'AND
RENTAL INCOME

CORPORATE PROFITS AND
INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT

1942

1944

1946

1946

i960

1952

1954

1951

1952

I

INTEREST

1954

1953

-'PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE! DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE lEXCEPT AS NOTED).

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISIRS

[Billions of dollars]

Period

1939
1944
1946
__
1947
1948
. _
1949
1950 _ .
1951
1952
1953

Total
national
income

Compensation
of employees *

Proprietors' income
Farm

72.8
182.6
179. 6
197. 2
221.6
216. 2
240.0
277. 0
291. 0
305.0

48. 1
121. 3
117. 7
128.8
140. 9
140. 9
154. 3
180. 4
195. 4
209. 1

4. 3
11. 5
13.9
14. 5
16. 7
12. 7
13. 3
16. 0
14.2
12. 2

305. 9
308.2
306.2
299. 9
298. 9
2
299.
6
<3)

206. 2
210. 0
211. 4
208. 8
206.4
206. 6
207. 1

13. 4
12. 1
11. 1
12.3
13.0
12. 2
11. 2

Business
and professional

Rental
income
of
persons

7. 3
18.0
21.3
19. 9
21. 6
21.4
22. 9
24. 8
25. 7
26. 2

2. 7
5.4
6. 2
6. 5
7.2
7.9
8.5
9. 1
10.0
10.6

Net
interest

4. 6
3.3
3. 1
3.8
4.5
5.2
5.9
6.8
7.4
8. 4

Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment
Total

Profits Inventory
before valuation
taxes adjustment

5. 7
23.0
17.3
23. 6
30. 6
28. 1
35. 1
39.9
38.2
38. 5

6.4
23.3
22.6
29.5
32. 8
26. 2
40. 0
41.2
37.2
39. 4

41.4
41. 0
38.3
33. 1
34. 1
2
34.
9
(3)

42.4
41. 9
40.9
32.5
34.5
2
34.5
(3)

-0. 7
Q

-sis

-5. 9
-2. 2
1.9
-4. 9
-1.3
1. 0
-1.0

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1953: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1954: First quarter .
Second quarter2
Third Quarter

26. 5
26.3
26. 1
25. 9
25. 6
25. 9
26. 1

10.5
10.5
10. 6
10.8
10.8
10.9
10. 9

7.9
8. 3
8. 6
8.9
9.0
9. 1
9.2

-0. 9
_. 9
-2. 6
.6
-.4
.4
.0

1
2

Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 23.)
a
Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers.
Not available.
NOTE.— The national in come and expenditure series have been revised by the Department of Commerce. For details see Survey o/ Current Business, July 1954.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).




21

CORPORATE PROFITS
Corporate profits, both before and after taxes, in the first half of this year were well below a year ago.
of the excess profits tax contributed to the relatively favorable showing of profits after taxes.

Abolition

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
60

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

60

-'NO ALLOWANCE FOR INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT.
^PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED).

COUNCIl OF ICONOMIC ADVISf RS

[Billions of dollars]
Corporate
profits
before taxes

Period

1939
1944___
1946
1947.
1948
1949. _
1950
1951
1952
1953

__ ..

..

6.4
23. 3
22.6
29. 5
32. 8
26. 2
40.0
41. 2
37.2
39.4

Corporate profits after taxes
Corporate
tax
liability

1. 4
12.9
9. 1
11. 3
12. 5
10. 4
17.8
22. 5
20.0
21. 1

Total

5.0
10. 4
13.4
18. 2
20.3
15. 8
22. 1
18. 7
17.2
18.3

Dividend
payments

3. 8
4. 7
5.8
6. 5
7.2
7. 5
9.2
9. 1
9. 1
9.4

Undistributed
profits

1. 2
5. 7
7. 7
11. 7
13. 0
8.3
12. 9
9. 6
8. 1
8.9

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1953: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1954: First quarter
Second quarter
1

l

42. 4
41. 9
40.9
32. 5

22. 7
22. 5
21. 9
17.4

19.7
19. 5
19. 0
15. 1

9. 1
9.3
9. 5
9.6

10.6
10. 2
9. 5
5. 5

34. 5
34.5

17. 0
17. 0

17. 5
17.5

9.6
9.6

7.9
7.9

Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers.
NOTE.— Pro p. 21 for profits before taxes and inventory valuation aijustment.
The national income and expenditure series have been revised by the Department of Commerce. For details see Survey of Current Business,
.
Source: Department of Commerce (eicept as noted)
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.

22



PERSONAL INCOME
Total personal income in August was slightly below the July level.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

300

1 300

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME

.250

250

LABOR INCOME*

200

150

150

100
BUSINESS, PROFESSIONAL,
AND RENTAL INCOME
FARM PROPRIETORS'
INCOME

1942

1944

1946

1948

1950

1952

1954

195!

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE,

1954

1952

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]

Period

Total
personal
income

1939
1944
1948
1949
1950
1952
1953

72.9
165. 7
208.7
206. 8
227. 1
271.2
286. 1

1953: July _
August
September
October.
November
December
1954: January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August 4

288.2
286.4
287.7
287. 8
287.2
287. 0
284.9
285.0
285. 0
284.4
286. 2
286. 5
285. 7
285.4

Labor income Proprietors' income
Rental
(wage and
Personal
salary disBusiness income Diviinterest
of
bursements
dends
and proFarm
income
and other 1
fessional persons
labor income)
2. 7
46.6
3.8
5.8
4.3
7.3
5. 4
4. 7
6.2
118.5
11. 5
18. 0
7.2
21.6
7.2
137.9
16. 7
9.0
21.4
7. 9
137.4
12.7
7.5
9.8
22.9
9.2
8.5
10.6
150.3
13.3
14.2
10. 0
190.6
25. 7
9. 1
12.3
26. 2
10.6
204.4
9.4
12. 2
13.5
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
11. 2
10. 5
9.4
13.6
26. 3
207.8
26. 1
10. 5
10. 1
207. 1
13.7
9.5
12. 1
26. 0
10. 8
13.9
9.5
205. 7
10. 8
9.5
14. 0
11.3
25. 9
205. 7
12.2
14. 1
26. 1
10.8
9.6
204.5
13.4
10. 9
14. 1
202. 7
9.6
25. 8
9.7
14.2
25. 5
10.9
201. 3
13. 2
10. 8
9.6
13. 2
25. 6
201.3
14.3
9.6
12. 5
10. 8
201. 1
25. 6
14.3
25.9
10.8
9.6
14.4
11. 5
200.9
12. 6
9.6
14.4
11.0
201. 6
25. 8
10.9
14. 4
202. 1
12. 2
26.0
9.6
9.7
11. 1
10. 8
26.0
14.5
202.3
10. 8
202. 1
9.8
11. 6
25. 9
14.5

3.0
3.6
11.3
12.4
3
15. 1
13. 1
13. 8

Less: Personal contributions
for social
insurance 2
0. 6
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.9
3. 8
4. 0

13. 6
13.6
13. 7
14. 6
13. 9
14.4
14. 8
15. 0
15. 8
15.9
15. 8
15. 8
15. 8
15. 5

4. 1
4. 1
4. 0
4. 0
4.0
4. 1
4. 7
4,8
4. 7
4. 6
4. 6
4. 7
4. 5
4.7

Transfer
payments

1
2

Excludes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 21.)
Social insurance contributions of employees and, bepinninp January 1952, of self-employed persons.
a Includes $2.7 billion National Service Life Insurance dividend, most of which was paid in the first half of the year.
< Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—The national income and expenditure series have been revised by the Department of Commerce. For details see Survey of Current Business, July 1954.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.




23

CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING
Disposable personal income fell slightly between the second and third quarters, according to preliminary estimates.
Consumer spending rose to a record level of $234 billion. As a result, the personal saving rate was reduced from
7.8 percent to 7.3 percent.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

200

1944

1946

1948

1954

1950

•^PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS,
SOURCE:. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED).

Less:

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Equals:

Personal
Disposincome Personal able
taxes * personal
income

Period

Less: Personal consumption
expenditures
Total

Durable
goods

Equals:

Net saving
as percent
of disPersonal
Nonnet
posable
durable Services saving
income
goods

Billions of dollars

1939
1944
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
195]
1952
1953

_

72.9
165.7
178. 0
190. 5
208. 7
206.8
227. 1
255. 3
271.2
286. 1

_

2.4
18.9
18. 8
21. 5
21. 1
18.7
20. 9
29.3
34. 4
36.0

70. 4
146.8
159.2
169. 0
187.6
188. 2
206. 1
226. 1
236.9
250. 1

67. 6
109.8
146. 6
165. 0
177. 6
180.6
194.0
208. 3
218.4
230. 1

6. 7
6.8
15. 9
20. 6
22. 2
23. 6
28. 6
27. 1
26.8
29. 7

35. 1
65. 4
84. 5
93. 1
98. 7
96.9
100.4
111. 1
116.0
118. 9

25. 8
37. 7
46. 2
51. 3
56. 7
60. 1
65.0
70. 1
75. 6
81. 4

2. 9
36. 9
12. 6
4. 0
10. 0
7. 6
12. 1
17. 7
18. 4
20.0

4. 1
25.2
7.9
2. 4
5.3
4. 0
5.9
7. 8
7.8
8.0

19. 2
19. 6
20. 0
21.5
21. 8
19.7
1 8. 5

7. 7
7.8
8.0
8. 6
8. 6
7.8
7. 3

Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rates
1953" First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1 Q54 " First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter 2

..
_ __

283.3
286.4
287.5
287.3
285. 1
285.7
285. 5

35. 5
35.9
36.3
36. 1
32.8
32.9
32. 9

247.8
250.4
251. 2
251.2
252.3
252.9
252. 5

228. 6
230.8
231. 2
229. 7
230. 5
233. 1
23-1. 0

30.4
30.3
30. 3
28.0
28.0
28.8
28. 5

118.8
119.6
118. 6
118.7
118.8
120.0
120.5

79. 4
80. 9
82. 3
83.0
83. 6
84. 3
85. 0

i Includes such items as fines, penalties, and donations.
J I'lvliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers.
Not) .—Tin- national income and expenditure series have been revised by the Department of Commerce. For details see Survey of Current Pitsinegg, July 1954.
Dctutl will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).

24



PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE INCOME
Per capita disposable income declined slightly in the third quarter, according to preliminary estimates.
DOLLARS
2,000

DOLLARS
1 2,000
ANNUAL AVERAGES

SEASONALLY 'ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

, 1953 PRICES1'

/-<

1,500

1,500

CURRENT PRICES

1,000

1,000

500

I
1942

1948

1944

1950

J/ SEE NOTE 2 ON TABLE BELOW.
A PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND

I
1952

I

I
1954

1951

1952

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISfRS

Total disposable personal Per capita disposable personal income (dollars)1
income (billions of dollars)*

Period

Current
prices
1939
1944
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953

1954

1953

1953
prices a

70.4
146.8
159.2
169. 0
187.6
188.2
206. 1
226. 1
236. 9
250. 1

-. ..^..
..
-

135. 6
223.4
218.4
202. 4
208.7
211.5
229. 3
233. 1
238. 8
250. 1

Current
prices
537
1,061
1, 126
1, 173
1,279
1,261
1, 359
1,465
1, 509
1,567

1953
prices *

Population
(thousands) 3

1,035
1, 615
1,545
1,405
1,423
1,417
1, 512
1,510
1, 521
1,567

131,
138,
141,
144,
146,
149,
151,
154,
157,
159,

028
397
389
126
631
188
683
360
022
629

714
306
022
764

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1953: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1954 1 First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter 4

.>

- -

. ..

247. 8
250.4
251. 2
251.2

249.5
251.2
250. 0
249.7

1. 561
1, 572
1, 570
1,563

1,572
1,577
1,562
1,554

158,
159,
160,
160,

252. 3
252.9
252. 5

251. 0
251. 9
251.0

1,563
1,560
1, 551

1,555
1, 554
1, 542

161,436
162, 078
162, 808

1
Income less taies.
2 Dollar estimates in current prices divided by consumer price index on base 1953=100.
»Includes armed forces overseas. Annual data as of July 1; quarterly data centered in the middle of the period, interpolated from monthly figures.
* Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—The national income and expenditure series have been revised by tbe Department of Commerce. For details see Survey of Current Business, July 1964.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Council of Economic Advisera




25

FARM INCOME
During the first 8 months of 1954, farmers received an average of $2.2 billion per month from cash marketings and
Government payments, about 3 percent below the same period of 1953. Livestock receipts were down 2 percent,
and crop receipts 6 percent.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
5

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
5

I954
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Parity index
(prices paid,
Cash receipts from marketings interest, taxes,
and
wage rates),
Livestock and
Crops
1953=100!
products
275
44
377
537
754
54
753
65
945
903
75
1, 144
1, 095*
1,423
93
1,049
90
1,280
92
1,029
1,331
1,099
101
1,634
1, 187
1, 537
103
1, 179
100
1,439
1, 036
100
1, 387
1, 136
100
1,420
1,742
99
1,475
2,309
1,572
99
99
1,559
1,811
1,466
100
1,461
1, 195
101
1,416
643
101
1,303
1,452
538
101
494
101
1,387
102
589
1,444
793
101
1, 344
977
100
l!251
1,207
101
1, 365

Farm income (millions of dollars, current prices)
Cash receipts
and Government
payments

Period

1039 monthly average
1 042 monthly average
1044 rnontn.lv average
1046 monthly average
_
1948 monthlv average
1940 monthly average
]050 monthly average
1951 monthly average
1 052 monthlv average
1053 monthlv average
__
1053- Julv
August
September _ >
October
'November
December
1054* January
February
March
..
April
May
-__
,} M I X *

Jnlv
Aninist
• 11
» I']

:i

-

_ -

715
1, 345
1, 763
2, 111
2,539
2,344
2,384
2, 757
2, 747
2, 636
2, 437
2, 564
3,222
3,888
3,374
2,939
2, 629
1, 960
2,014
1,914
2,062
2, 176
2,246
2,584

i-rir-1 from t h e reported base, 1910-14 = 100, to the base 1953=100.
, iiM'onu- in current dollar* divided by parity index on base 1953=100.
m i n a i y e'-tinmU-s.
. lJ»i>uriJiieiu of Aj'rieuJlun .

26



Farm income
(millions of
dollars,
1953 prices) 2

1, 625
2, 491
2,712
2, 815
2,730
2,604
2,591
2,730
2, 667
2,636
2, 437
2,564
3,255
3, 927
3,408
2, 939
2,603
1,941
1, 994
1, 895
2,022
2, 154
2, 24 fi
2, 558

CREDIT, MONEY, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS
Bank

Loans by commercial banks decreased $900 million in August, but appear to have increased in September,
holdings of U. S. Government securities rose $3 billion in August.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

75

175

1939

1945

1950

1951

195?
END OF MONTH

1952

END OF YEAR

COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

End of period

1939
1945
1947
1949
I960.
1952
_
1953
1953: July. _.
August
SeptemberOctober
November
December..
1954: January
February
March. ..
April
.
May
June
Julv 2
August . 2
Rent ember

Total
loans and
investments

..
.

..

40.7
124.0
116.3
120.2
126.7
141.6
146.4
143.2
143. 1
143. 0
144. 0
145. 5
145.7
145.3
144.9
142.8
144. 1
145. 7
146.4
147. 3
149.5

[Billions of dollars]
All commercial banks
Investments
Loans

17.2
26. 1
38. 1
43. 0
52.2
64. 2
68. 3
65.6
66.0
66.3
67. 1
67.2
67.6
66. 5
66.9
67.0
66. 8
67. 1
67.3
67. 3
66. 4

Total

23. 4
97. 9
78. 2
77.2
74.4
77.5
78. 1
77.6
77. 1
76.7
76.8
78.3
78. 1
78.9
78.0
75. 7
77.4
78. 6
79.0
80.0
83.0

U. S.
Government
securities

16.3
90.6
69. 2
67.0
62.0
63. 3
63.6
63.2
62.6
62.2
62.3
63.7
63.4
64.2
63.0
60. 6
62. 1
63.3
63.5
64.3
67.3

Other
securities

Weekly
reporting
member
banks —
business
loans l

7. 1
7.3
9.0
10. 2
12.4
14. 1
14. 6
14.3
14. 5
14. 5
14.5
14.6
14. 7
14.7
15.0
15. ]
15.2
15. 3
15. 5
15. 6
15. 7

' Commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans; revised series beginning January 1952.
* Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




4.7
7.2
14.7
13.9
17.9
23. 4
23.4
22.6
22.9
23. 1
23.3
23.2
23.4
22.5
22.4
22. 8
22. 2
21.9
21. 9
21.5
20. 8
21.0

27

CONSUMER CREDIT
Total consumer credit outstandins increased in August for the fifth consecutive month.
.LIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

30

1950
195!
END OF YEAR

1952

1954

1953
END OF MONTH

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars]
Total
consumer
credit
outstanding

End of period

1939
1945
1950
1951
1952
1953
-1953: Julv
August
September
October . .
November
December
1954" JanuEry
February
March ..
April
M av
.
June
Julv
A u crust

--

7,222
5,665
20,813
21,468
25, 827
28, 896
27, 581
27, 810
27, 979
28, 166
28, 252
28, 896
28, 125
27, 478
27, 151
27, 330
27, 520
27, 791
27, 835
27, 922

Instalment credit

Total
4,503
2,462
14, 490
14, 837
18, 684
21, 807
21, 004
21,218
21, 347
21, 486
21, 586
21, 807
21, 444
21, 151
20, 900
20, 909
20, 932
21, 122
21, 246
21,310

Automobilel
paper

1,497
455
6,342
6, 242
8,099
10,289
9, 973
10, 136
10, 232
10, 337
10, 358
10, 289
10, 084
9,915
9, 800
9, 798
9, 838 '
9, 980
10, 103
10, 158

Noninstalment credit

Other Repair and
consumer moderni- Personal
zation
loans
goods
loans 2
paper l

1,620
816
4,337
4,270
5,328
5,605
5, 351
5,362
5, 352
5, 366
5, 406
5, 605
5,495
5,377
5,220
5, 188
5, 142
5, 134
5. 094
5, 069

298
182
1,006
1,090
1,406
1,606
1, 516
1,534
1,562
1,585
1, 604
1,606
1,587
1,570
1,554
1, 554
1,565
1,563
1,566
1, 569

1,088
1,009
2,805
3,235
3,851
4,307
4, 164
4, 186
4,201
4, 198
4,218
4,307
4,278
4,289
4,326
4,369
4,387
4, 445
4,483
4,514

Total

2,719
3,203
6,323
6,631
7, 143
7,089
6, 577
6,592
6,632
6,680
6, 666
7,089
6,681
6,327
6,251
6,421
6,588
6, 669
6, 589
6,622

Charge
accounts

1,414
1,612
3,006
3,096
3,342
3,249
2,705
2,668
2,716
2,811
2,840
3,249
2,893
2,550
2,438
2,566
2,639
2,679
2, 614
2,642

i Includes all consumer credit extended for the purpose of purchasing automobiles and other consumer goods and secured by the items purchased.
»Includes only such loans held by financial institutions; those held by retail outlets are included in "other consumer goods paper."
Single-payment loans and service credit.
NOTE.—Detail will Dot necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of tbe Federal Reserve System.

1

28



Other «

1,305
1,591
3,317
3,535
3,801
3,840
3,872
3,924
3,916
3,869
3,826
3,840
3,788
3,777
3,813
3,855
3,949
3,990
3, 975
3, 980

BOND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES
Yields on 3-month Treasury bills averaged higher during September than in August. Yields on long-term Government and private securities rose slightly. The prime commercial paper rare continued at the level reached early
in August.
PERCENT PER ANNUM
3.5

PERCENT PER ANNUM
3.5

1954

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Percent per annum]
U. S. Government security yields
Period

1939
1946
1950
1951
1952
1953
1953- August
September
October
November
December
1ft54: January
February
M arch
April..
May
June .
..
July
August
September ..
Week ended:
1954: September 4
11
18
25
October
2
9

_ ..

....

-_.
.

.-

.
_

_ _ __
_

..

3-month
Taxable bonds 3
Treasury
Old series1 New series4
bills »
0.023
2. 19
. 375
2. 32
1.218
2.57
1. 552
2.68
1. 766
3. 16
2.93
1. 931
3.22
3.00
2.088
3. 19
2. 97
1.876
3.06
2. 83
1. 402
3.04
2.85
1. 427
2.79
2. 96
1. 630
2. 68
2.90
1.214
2.85
2. 60
.984
2. 73
2.51
1. 053
2. 70
2.47
1. O i l
2.72
2. 52
.782
2.70
2.54
. 650
2.62
2. 47
.710
2. 60
. 892
2.48
2. 64
2. 51
i. oo ;
1. 023
1. 016
1.024
. 986
. 984
. 966

2.
2.
2.
2.
2.
2.

50
51
51
51
51
51

2.63
2.64
2. 64
2.65
2. 65
2.64

Corporate
Aaa bonds
(Moody 's)

3.01
2.53
2.62
2.86
2.96
3. 20
3.24
3.29
3. 16
3. 11
3. 13
3.06
2.95
2.86
2. 85
2.88
2.90
2. 89
2. 87
2.89

0.59
.81
1.45
2. 17
2.33
2.52
2.75
2.74
2. 55
2.32
2. 25
2. 13
2.00
2.00
1. 77
1.59
1.56
1.43
1.33
1.31

2.88
2. 89
2.89
2. 89
2. 89
2.89

1.31
1.31
1.31
1.31
1.31
1. 31

2
i Kate on new issues within period.
Bonds in this classification were first issued in March 1941.
• 2JHrpereent bonds first callable after 12 vears. Prior to April 1952, only bonds due or callable after 15 years were Included.
'3^-percent bonds of 1978-83, issued May 1, 1953.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




Prime
commercial
paper,
4-6 months

OQ
«w

MONEY SUPPLY
The privately held money supply in August was unchanged from its July level.
billion higher.

Government deposits were $1.6

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1 225

225
TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY

TOTAL EXCLUDING U.S. GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS

DEMAND DEPOSITS ADJUSTED

TIME DEPOSITS

NCY OUTSIDE BANKS

U.S. GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS

1S4I 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 5! 52 53
END OF YEAR

I952

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

Total deposits and
currency

End of period
1939
1945
1946
194-8
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953

.

_>_
. __ .

1953: July
August .
September
OctoberNovember
December
1954: January
February -_ - M aTcru
April
Mav.

June
Julv. 4
Aucufit __
1

-__

64.7
176. 4
167.5
172.7
173.9
180.6
189.8
200.4
205.8
201.3
201. 1
201. 1
201. 7
203. 7
205.7
203.5
202.5
201.3
202.3
203.6
205. 3
204.9
206. 3

I953
END OF MONTH

I954
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
Totai excluding U. S. Government deposits
(privately held money supply)
U.S.
Government
Currency
Demand
l
Time
deposits
deposits
Total
outside
deposits 3
banks
adjusted 2
27. 1
6.4
29.8
63.3
1.5
48. 5
75.9
26.5
25.6
150. 8
54.0
26.7
83 3
164. 0
3.5
57.5
26. 1
85.5
169. 1
3.6
58.6
169.8
85. 8
25. 4
4. 1
59.2
25.4
92. 3
176.9
3.7
98.2
186.0
61. 4
3.9
26.3
101. 5
65 8
27.5
5.6
194.8
70. 1
103.3
201. 3
27.8
4.5
68.4
27. 2
97.4
193.0
8,3
97.5
68. 7
27.3
193. 4
7.7
69.1
97.7
27.5
194.3
6.8
69. 6
100. 3
27.4
4.4
197.3
69.3
27. 9
197.4
100. 2
6.2
70.4
102.5
200.9
28. 1
4.8
70.6
102.3
26. 9
199.8
3.7
71.0
26.9
99.6
197.4
5.0
96. 7
71. 7
26.9
195. 2
6. 1
72.0
26. 7
98. 6
197.3
5.0
72. 5
26. 8
198.0
98. 7
5.6
73.3
27. 1
98. 1
198.5
6.8
73. 7
26. 8
100.0
200. 4
4.4
74. 0
99.4
26.9
6.0
200. 3

Includes U. S. Government deposits at Federal Reserve banks and commercial and savings banks, and U. S. Treasurer's time deposits,
open account.
2 Includes demand deposits, otber than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection.
«Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System, but excludes interbank deposits.
* Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

30



FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES
Total budget expenditures increased almost $2 billion in August, largely due to repurchases from private banks of
Commodity Credit Corporation loans. Budget receipts rose by about $1 billion. The cumulative budget deficit
for the first 2 months of the current fiscal year was $4.8 billion, reflecting to a considerable degree the reduced receipts of the Treasury in the first half of the fiscal year.
BILLIONS Of DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

TOTAL BUDGET EXPENDITURES

NET BUDGET RECEIPTS

50

-

25

I950

I95I

1952

1953

1954

1955

1952

NATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAMS

1953

BUDGET SURPLUS (+) OR DEFICIT (-)
(MAGNIFIED SCALE)

75

FIRST 2

MONTHS

25

-5

1950

1951

1952

1953

1954

1950

1953

1951

1954

FISCAL YEARS

* ESTIMATED
SOURCES: TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND BUREAU OF THE BUDGET.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
surplus (-f)
Net budget receipts Budget
or deficit ( — )

Budget expenditures
Period

Actual:
Fiscal vear 1944
Fiscal vear 1947
_
Fiscal year 1948
Fiscal vear 1950 ..
Fiscal vear 1951
Fiscal year 1952s
Fiscal vear 19538
Fiscal vear 1954
Estimated:
Fiscal vear 19558 . ..
Actual: *
1953: ApriL.
May
June
July
August
1954: FebruaryMarch
April
Mav.
June.
July
Au crust

Public
Total
National security l
debt
CumulaCumulaTotal for tive fiscal Total for tive fiscal (end of3
CumulaCumulaperiod)
Total for tive fiscal Total for tive fiscal period year totals period
year
totals
period year totals period year totals
95. 1
39. 0
33. 1
39. 6
44. 1
65.4
74.3
67. 6

75.8
14. 4
11.7
13. 0
22.3
43. 8
50. 3
46.2

43.6
39. 8
41.5
36.5
47.6
61.4
64.8
64.6

-51-4
+ .8
+ 8.4
-3. 1
+ 3.5
-4.0
-9.4
-3.0

202. 6
258.4
252. 4
257.4
255.3
259. 1
266. 1
271.3

64.0

41.9

59.3

-4.7

274.5

6.5
6.5
9. 0
5. 1
6. 0
4.7
5.6
5.3
5.2
7. 1
4. 8
6. 7

58.8
65.3
74. 3
5. 1
11. 1
44. 4
50. 0
55.3
60. 5
67. 6
4. 8

n. fi

4.6
4. 6
5. 5
3. 6
3. 9
3.6
3.9
3.7
3. 3
4.2
3.2
3. 4

40.2
44, 8
50.3
3. 6
7. 6
31.2
35.0
38.7
42.0
46.2
3.2
6. 6

2.8
4.2
9.8
3.4
4.4
5.4
11. 4
2.8
3.6
10.5
2. 8
3.9

50.9
55. 1
64.8
3.4
7. 7
36.2
47.7
50.4
54. 0
64.6
2.8
6. 7

-3.7
-2.3
+ .8
— 1. 7
-1. 6
+.7
+ 5. 9
-2.5
— 1. 6
+ 3.4
-2. 0
— 2, 8

-7.9
-10.3
-9.4
-1. 7
-3.4
-8.2
-2.3
-4.8
-6.5
-3.0
-2. 0
-4. 8

264.6
266. 6
266. 1
272. 7
273.3
274.9
270.3
271. 1
273. 6
271. 3
271.0
275. 0

i Revised to include the items classified a? "national security" in The Pudget of The United States Government for the Fiscal Year Ending June SO, 1955. These
expenditure items are: Military services, foreign military assistance, development and control of atomic energy, and allocation of critical and strategic materials.
3 Includes guaranteed securities, except those held by t h e Treasury. Not all of total shown is subject to statutory debt limitation.
» Beginning with February 1954, the reporting of budget receipts and expenditures has been changed to a basis consistent with that used in preparing budget
fjfitimates. For comparative purposes, figures for fiscal 1953 are shown on a like basis.
NOTE.—Pnta for earlier months have not been published by the Treasury Department.
Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget.
01
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
*•'•*




FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM
AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC
The cash deficit for the fiscal year ending in June was one-half billion dollars.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25

5 —m^: —

— H — EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS-

m
EXCESS OF CASH PAYMENTS-

1951
CALENDAR YEARS
-'PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES.
SOURCES- BUREAU OF THE BUDGET A N D TREASURY DEPARTMENT.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars]
Calendar year
Calendar year total:
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
Quarterly totals, not adjusted for seasonal variation:
1952: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1953: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

_

1954: First quarter 1 1
Second quarter

...

Federal cash
receipts from
the public

Federal cash
payments to
the public

41,441
44,282
44,922
41,346
42,419
59, 278
71,339
70,382

41, 399
38, 616
36, 897
42, 642
41, 969
58, 034
72, 980
76, 541

+42
+ 5,666
+ 8,027
-1,295
+ 450
+ 1.244
-1, 641
-6, 159

21,874
19, 389
15, 354
14, 722

16, 921
18, 701
17, 921
19, 436

+ 4,953
+ 688
-2,567
-4, 715

22, 539
18, 674
15, 502
13,667

18, 166
21,049
19, 015
18,311

+ 4,373
-2,375
-3,513
-4, 644

23, 353
18, 987

16,358
18, 342

+ 6,995
+ 645

Excess of receipts ( + ) or
payments (—)

1
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE — Detail wju not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Bureau of the Budget and Treasury Department.

32

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