Full text of Economic Indicators : November 2003
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108th Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators NOVEMBER 2003 (Includes data available as of December 5, 2003) Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 2003 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) ROBERT F. BENNETT, Utah, Chairman JIM SAXTON, New Jersey, Vice Chairman SENATE SAM BROWNBACK (Kansas) JEFF SESSIONS (Alabama) JOHN SUNUNU (New Hampshire) LAMAR ALEXANDER (Tennessee) SUSAN M. COLLINS (Maine) JACK REED (Rhode Island) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland) JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico) HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES PAUL RYAN (Wisconsin) JENNIFER DUNN (Washington) PHIL ENGLISH (Pennsylvania) ADAM H. PUTNAM (Florida) RON PAUL (Texas) PETE STARK (California) CAROLYN B. MALONEY (New York) MELVIN L. WATT (North Carolina) BARON P. HILL (Indiana) DONALD B. MARRON, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS N. GREGORY MANKIW, Chairman HARVEY S. ROSEN, Member KRISTIN J. FORBES, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—81ST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—1ST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled ‘‘Economic Indicators’’ Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled ‘‘Economic Indicators,’’ and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts prepared by the Art Production Section, Design and Graphics Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $3.00 a single copy ($3.75 foreign), or by subscription at $33.00 per year ($41.25 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 For sale by the U.S. Government Printing Office Superintendent of Documents, Mail Stop: SSOP, Washington, DC 20402–9328 ii TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT In the third quarter of 2003, according to revised estimates, current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) rose 10.0 percent (annual rate), real GDP (GDP in chained 1996 dollars) rose 8.2 percent, and the implicit price deflator rose 1.7 percent. [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1993 ...................... 1994 ...................... 1995 ...................... 1996 ...................... 1997 ...................... 1998 ...................... 1999 ...................... 2000 ...................... 2001 ...................... 2002 ...................... 2000: I ................. II ................ III .............. IV ............... 2001: I ................. II ................ III .............. IV ............... 2002: I ................. II ............... III ............. IV .............. 2003: I ................. II ............... III r ............ 1 GDP Exports and imports of goods and services Personal Gross Gross conprivate domestic sumption domestic product expendi- investtures ment Net exports Exports 6,642.3 7,054.3 7,400.5 7,813.2 8,318.4 8,781.5 9,274.3 9,824.6 10,082.2 10,446.2 9,649.5 9,820.7 9,874.8 9,953.6 10,028.1 10,049.9 10,097.7 10,152.9 10,313.1 10,376.9 10,506.2 10,588.8 10,688.4 10,802.7 11,063.4 ¥60.5 ¥87.1 ¥84.3 ¥89.0 ¥89.3 ¥151.7 ¥249.9 ¥365.5 ¥348.9 ¥423.6 ¥330.6 ¥353.2 ¥384.9 ¥393.2 ¥372.7 ¥365.7 ¥312.6 ¥344.5 ¥360.1 ¥425.6 ¥432.9 ¥476.0 ¥487.2 ¥504.6 ¥489.6 658.0 725.1 818.6 874.2 966.4 964.9 989.3 1,101.1 1,034.1 1,014.9 1,055.9 1,098.0 1,130.9 1,119.8 1,100.0 1,059.7 1,005.8 971.1 977.5 1,018.1 1,038.6 1,025.4 1,031.8 1,031.5 1,063.1 4,454.7 4,716.4 4,969.0 5,237.5 5,529.3 5,856.0 6,246.5 6,683.7 6,987.0 7,303.7 6,552.2 6,638.7 6,736.1 6,808.0 6,904.7 6,959.8 6,983.7 7,099.9 7,174.2 7,254.7 7,360.7 7,425.4 7,512.5 7,598.6 7,760.8 955.1 1,097.1 1,143.8 1,242.7 1,390.5 1,538.7 1,636.7 1,755.4 1,586.0 1,593.2 1,711.4 1,786.3 1,766.4 1,757.4 1,671.1 1,597.2 1,574.9 1,500.7 1,559.4 1,588.0 1,597.3 1,628.1 1,611.2 1,616.5 1,687.9 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Imports Total Total less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. 718.5 812.1 902.8 963.1 1,055.8 1,116.7 1,239.2 1,466.6 1,383.0 1,438.5 1,386.5 1,451.1 1,515.8 1,513.0 1,472.8 1,425.3 1,318.4 1,315.6 1,337.5 1,443.7 1,471.5 1,501.4 1,519.0 1,536.1 1,552.8 1,293.0 1,327.9 1,372.0 1,421.9 1,487.9 1,538.5 1,641.0 1,751.0 1,858.0 1,972.9 1,716.5 1,748.8 1,757.2 1,781.4 1,825.0 1,858.5 1,851.7 1,896.8 1,939.5 1,959.8 1,981.1 2,011.3 2,052.0 2,092.2 2,104.3 527.3 521.1 521.5 531.6 538.2 539.2 565.0 589.2 628.1 693.7 575.7 598.5 589.7 592.9 613.3 624.8 627.4 646.9 672.0 688.2 697.7 716.9 735.2 779.8 780.9 National defense 364.9 355.1 350.6 357.0 352.6 349.1 364.3 374.9 399.9 447.4 365.5 379.1 375.0 380.0 391.4 395.2 400.3 412.8 431.7 442.1 451.2 464.7 471.1 518.6 518.0 Nondefense 162.4 165.9 170.9 174.6 185.6 190.1 200.7 214.3 228.2 246.3 210.2 219.4 214.7 213.0 221.9 229.6 227.2 234.1 240.3 246.1 246.5 252.2 264.1 261.1 263.0 State and local 765.7 806.8 850.5 890.4 949.7 999.3 1,076.0 1,161.8 1,229.9 1,279.2 1,140.8 1,150.3 1,167.4 1,188.5 1,211.7 1,233.7 1,224.3 1,249.8 1,267.5 1,271.6 1,283.3 1,294.4 1,316.8 1,312.5 1,323.4 Final sales of domestic product Gross domestic purchases 1 Addendum: Gross national product 6,621.2 6,991.8 7,367.5 7,783.2 8,255.5 8,708.4 9,214.8 9,761.1 10,142.5 10,442.4 9,602.6 9,731.5 9,813.6 9,896.6 10,055.3 10,107.0 10,158.3 10,249.4 10,343.0 10,373.5 10,488.7 10,564.3 10,688.0 10,821.2 11,078.0 6,702.8 7,141.4 7,484.8 7,902.1 8,407.7 8,933.3 9,524.2 10,190.1 10,431.0 10,869.9 9,980.1 10,173.9 10,259.7 10,346.8 10,400.8 10,415.5 10,410.4 10,497.4 10,673.1 10,802.4 10,939.1 11,064.8 11,175.6 11,307.3 11,553.0 6,666.7 7,071.1 7,420.9 7,831.2 8,325.4 8,778.1 9,297.1 9,848.0 10,104.1 10,436.7 9,670.5 9,846.4 9,892.5 9,982.8 10,038.0 10,081.0 10,109.3 10,188.1 10,314.9 10,356.8 10,495.3 10,579.7 10,678.2 10,799.1 11,056.7 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT [Billions of chained (1996) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1993 ........... 1994 ........... 1995 ........... 1996 ........... 1997 ........... 1998 ........... 1999 ........... 2000 ........... 2001 ........... 2002 ........... 2000: I ...... II ..... III ... IV .... 2001: I ...... II ..... III ... IV .... 2002: I ...... II .... III ... IV .... 2003: I ...... II .... III r Gross domestic product 7,062.6 7,347.7 7,543.8 7,813.2 8,159.5 8,508.9 8,859.0 9,191.4 9,214.5 9,439.9 9,097.4 9,205.7 9,218.7 9,243.8 9,229.9 9,193.1 9,186.4 9,248.8 9,363.2 9,392.4 9,485.6 9,518.2 9,552.0 9,629.4 9,821.2 Personal consumption expenditures 4,748.9 4,928.1 5,075.6 5,237.5 5,423.9 5,683.7 5,964.5 6,223.9 6,377.2 6,576.0 6,151.9 6,198.2 6,256.8 6,288.8 6,326.0 6,348.0 6,370.9 6,464.0 6,513.8 6,542.4 6,609.9 6,637.9 6,670.9 6,733.9 6,838.4 Gross private domestic investment Exports and imports of goods and services Nonresidential fixed investment Residential fixed investment Change in private inventories Net exports Exports 683.6 744.6 817.5 899.4 1,009.3 1,135.9 1,228.4 1,324.2 1,255.1 1,183.4 1,297.1 1,329.1 1,340.7 1,329.9 1,311.4 1,261.0 1,241.7 1,206.4 1,188.4 1,181.1 1,178.7 1,185.3 1,172.1 1,193.0 1,232.8 276.0 302.7 291.7 313.3 319.7 345.1 368.3 372.4 373.5 388.2 379.1 376.2 367.2 367.2 374.5 374.0 374.3 371.0 383.6 386.1 387.1 395.9 405.5 412.0 433.7 20.0 66.8 30.4 30.0 63.8 76.7 62.8 65.0 ¥61.4 5.2 45.3 91.5 63.1 59.9 ¥26.9 ¥58.3 ¥61.8 ¥98.4 ¥28.9 4.9 18.8 25.8 4.8 ¥17.6 ¥14.1 ¥59.1 ¥86.5 ¥78.4 ¥89.0 ¥113.3 ¥221.1 ¥320.5 ¥398.8 ¥415.9 ¥488.5 ¥368.8 ¥394.6 ¥413.1 ¥418.5 ¥404.5 ¥414.8 ¥419.0 ¥425.3 ¥446.6 ¥487.4 ¥488.0 ¥532.2 ¥510.3 ¥546.1 ¥524.2 672.7 732.8 808.2 874.2 981.5 1,002.4 1,036.3 1,137.2 1,076.1 1,058.8 1,095.8 1,133.9 1,165.5 1,153.7 1,135.8 1,098.8 1,048.0 1,021.8 1,030.6 1,065.5 1,077.7 1,061.6 1,058.1 1,055.5 1,083.5 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Imports Total Total 731.8 819.4 886.6 963.1 1,094.8 1,223.5 1,356.8 1,536.0 1,492.0 1,547.4 1,464.6 1,528.5 1,578.6 1,572.2 1,540.3 1,513.6 1,467.0 1,447.2 1,477.1 1,552.9 1,565.7 1,593.8 1,568.4 1,601.7 1,607.7 1 GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1996) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. 1,398.8 1,400.1 1,406.4 1,421.9 1,455.4 1,483.3 1,540.6 1,582.5 1,640.4 1,712.8 1,568.3 1,586.1 1,582.2 1,593.4 1,615.7 1,638.0 1,633.3 1,674.5 1,697.3 1,703.3 1,715.6 1,735.0 1,736.7 1,772.6 1,778.3 National defense 572.0 551.3 536.5 531.6 529.6 525.4 537.7 544.4 570.6 613.3 533.8 554.0 543.7 546.4 559.0 567.2 568.9 587.2 597.8 608.7 615.1 631.4 632.5 669.5 668.8 394.7 375.9 361.9 357.0 347.7 341.6 348.8 348.7 366.0 400.0 341.3 353.4 347.9 351.9 359.0 361.4 365.5 378.0 388.5 395.8 402.5 413.2 409.7 450.2 448.3 Nondefense 177.3 175.5 174.6 174.6 181.8 183.8 188.8 195.6 204.4 213.3 192.3 200.3 195.6 194.3 199.8 205.6 203.2 209.1 209.3 212.9 212.7 218.3 222.8 219.7 220.9 State and local 827.0 848.9 869.9 890.4 925.8 957.7 1,002.4 1,037.4 1,069.4 1,099.7 1,033.8 1,031.8 1,037.8 1,046.3 1,056.2 1,070.2 1,064.1 1,087.1 1,099.3 1,094.7 1,100.6 1,104.0 1,104.6 1,104.1 1,110.4 Final sales of domestic product Gross domestic purchases 1 Addendum: Gross national product 7,043.8 7,285.8 7,512.2 7,783.2 8,095.2 8,431.8 8,793.9 9,121.1 9,258.4 9,424.4 9,042.9 9,111.1 9,150.4 9,179.8 9,243.8 9,234.3 9,230.5 9,324.9 9,379.4 9,377.9 9,457.2 9,483.1 9,536.2 9,631.1 9,818.7 7,120.6 7,434.2 7,621.8 7,902.1 8,271.7 8,721.3 9,160.2 9,561.2 9,600.7 9,889.8 9,440.8 9,571.9 9,600.9 9,631.0 9,604.6 9,577.1 9,575.8 9,645.3 9,778.2 9,840.8 9,934.7 10,005.5 10,020.7 10,129.4 10,302.9 7,087.8 7,364.3 7,564.0 7,831.2 8,168.1 8,508.4 8,883.7 9,216.2 9,237.3 9,433.5 9,119.7 9,233.0 9,238.2 9,274.0 9,241.7 9,224.3 9,199.8 9,283.5 9,367.5 9,376.7 9,477.9 9,512.1 9,544.7 9,628.0 9,816.9 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT [Index numbers, 1996=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Personal consumption expenditures Period 1993 .................. 1994 .................. 1995 .................. 1996 .................. 1997 .................. 1998 ................. 1999 ................. 2000 ................. 2001 ................. 2002 .................. 2000: I ............ II ........... III ......... IV .......... 2001: I ............ II ........... III ......... IV .......... 2002: I ............ II ........... III ......... IV ........... 2003: I ............ II ........... III r ........ Gross domestic product 94.05 96.01 98.10 100.00 101.95 103.20 104.69 106.89 109.42 110.66 106.07 106.68 107.12 107.68 108.65 109.32 109.92 109.78 110.14 110.48 110.76 111.25 111.90 112.18 112.65 Total 93.81 95.70 97.90 100.00 101.94 103.03 104.73 107.39 109.56 111.07 106.51 107.11 107.66 108.26 109.15 109.64 109.62 109.84 110.14 110.89 111.36 111.86 112.62 112.84 113.49 Durable goods Nondurable goods Services 99.06 100.56 101.06 100.00 97.75 95.40 93.03 91.46 89.70 87.20 91.91 91.74 91.24 90.96 90.70 89.91 89.31 88.97 88.02 87.38 86.96 86.48 85.66 84.84 84.05 96.14 96.83 97.93 100.00 101.34 101.31 103.69 107.59 109.17 109.62 106.48 107.28 108.04 108.53 109.00 109.80 109.42 108.45 108.52 109.75 109.92 110.26 111.51 110.97 111.96 91.56 94.16 97.25 100.00 103.12 105.53 107.81 110.85 114.32 117.45 109.75 110.44 111.15 112.02 113.42 114.08 114.40 115.38 116.14 117.00 117.88 118.74 119.64 120.57 121.44 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2 Gross private domestic investment Exports and imports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed 99.81 100.54 100.93 100.00 99.02 96.95 95.53 95.59 95.73 94.42 95.33 95.43 95.73 95.85 95.95 95.96 95.68 95.31 94.81 94.47 94.16 94.25 94.14 93.79 93.84 91.23 94.48 97.91 100.00 102.68 105.58 109.59 114.40 119.09 121.58 112.89 113.98 114.87 115.91 117.49 118.78 119.51 120.60 120.61 121.40 121.38 122.88 125.10 125.23 125.80 Exports Imports Total 97.82 98.94 101.28 100.00 98.47 96.26 95.47 96.83 96.10 95.85 96.36 96.83 97.03 97.06 96.85 96.44 95.97 95.03 94.85 95.55 96.38 96.59 97.52 97.72 98.12 98.18 99.12 101.83 100.00 96.44 91.27 91.33 95.49 92.70 92.97 94.67 94.94 96.02 96.24 95.61 94.17 89.87 90.91 90.55 92.97 93.98 94.20 96.85 95.91 96.58 92.18 94.51 97.21 100.00 101.63 102.63 105.08 108.23 110.09 113.12 107.87 108.04 108.48 108.52 109.72 110.15 110.29 110.18 112.41 113.06 113.43 113.54 116.23 116.47 116.76 National defense Nondefense State and local 92.45 94.49 96.88 100.00 101.41 102.22 104.44 107.53 109.27 111.86 107.09 107.26 107.80 107.96 109.02 109.35 109.50 109.22 111.14 111.70 112.11 112.47 114.98 115.20 115.53 91.58 94.55 97.90 100.00 102.06 103.41 106.29 109.55 111.63 115.45 109.34 109.52 109.77 109.59 111.06 111.67 111.79 111.97 114.79 115.60 115.89 115.52 118.54 118.84 119.04 92.59 95.04 97.77 100.00 102.58 104.34 107.33 111.98 115.01 116.33 110.35 111.49 112.49 113.59 114.72 115.28 115.06 114.97 115.29 116.16 116.60 117.24 119.21 118.88 119.18 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES: INDEXES AND PERCENT CHANGES [Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Percent change from preceding period 1 Index numbers, 1996=100 Period 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Real GDP (chain-type quantity index) GDP (current dollars) GDP chain-type price index GDP implicit price deflator GDP (current dollars) Real GDP (chain-type quantity index) GDP chain-type price index GDP implicit price deflator ............................................................. ............................................................. ............................................................. ............................................................. .............................................................. ............................................................. ............................................................. ............................................................. ............................................................. ............................................................. 85.01 90.29 94.72 100.00 106.47 112.39 118.70 125.74 129.04 133.70 90.39 94.04 96.55 100.00 104.43 108.91 113.39 117.64 117.94 120.82 94.05 96.01 98.10 100.00 101.95 103.20 104.69 106.89 109.42 110.66 94.05 96.01 98.10 100.00 101.95 103.20 104.69 106.89 109.42 110.66 5.1 6.2 4.9 5.6 6.5 5.6 5.6 5.9 2.6 3.6 2.7 4.0 2.7 3.6 4.4 4.3 4.1 3.8 .3 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.4 2.1 2.4 1.1 2.4 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.4 2.1 2.4 1.1 1999: I ........................................................ II ....................................................... III ..................................................... IV ...................................................... 2000: I ........................................................ II ....................................................... III ..................................................... IV ...................................................... 2001: I ........................................................ II ....................................................... III ..................................................... IV ...................................................... 2002: I ......................................................... II ....................................................... III ..................................................... IV ...................................................... 2003: I ........................................................ II ....................................................... III r .................................................... 116.38 117.39 119.24 121.80 123.50 125.69 126.39 127.40 128.35 128.63 129.24 129.95 132.00 132.81 134.47 135.53 136.80 138.26 141.60 111.78 112.32 113.74 115.70 116.44 117.82 117.99 118.31 118.13 117.66 117.58 118.37 119.84 120.21 121.41 121.82 122.26 123.25 125.70 104.12 104.52 104.84 105.28 106.08 106.69 107.13 107.68 108.66 109.32 109.92 109.78 110.14 110.48 110.76 111.25 111.90 112.18 112.65 104.12 104.51 104.83 105.27 106.07 106.68 107.12 107.68 108.65 109.32 109.92 109.78 110.14 110.48 110.76 111.25 111.90 112.18 112.65 4.9 3.5 6.5 8.9 5.7 7.3 2.2 3.2 3.0 .9 1.9 2.2 6.5 2.5 5.1 3.2 3.8 4.3 10.0 3.0 2.0 5.2 7.1 2.6 4.8 .6 1.1 ¥.6 ¥1.6 ¥.3 2.7 5.0 1.3 4.0 1.4 1.4 3.3 8.2 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.7 3.1 2.3 1.6 2.1 3.7 2.5 2.2 ¥.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.8 2.4 1.0 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.7 3.1 2.3 1.6 2.1 3.7 2.5 2.2 ¥.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.8 2.4 1.0 1.7 1 Percent changes based on unrounded data. Quarterly percent changes are at annual rates. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS–OUTPUT, PRICE, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross product of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars) Period Current dollars 1993 ........................................................ 1994 ........................................................ 1995 ........................................................ 1996 ........................................................ 1997 ......................................................... 1998 ........................................................ 1999 ......................................................... 2000 ........................................................ 2001 ........................................................ 2002 ........................................................ 2000: I ................................................... II ................................................. III ................................................ IV ................................................ 2001: I ................................................... II ................................................. III ................................................ IV ................................................ 2002: I ................................................... II ................................................. III ................................................ IV ................................................ 2003: I ................................................... II ................................................. III p .............................................. 1 The Chained (1996) dollars 3,457.6 3,737.2 3,945.9 4,159.5 4,435.1 4,707.1 4,981.0 5,295.0 5,354.2 5,493.1 5,228.7 5,275.1 5,335.5 5,340.7 5,318.6 5,340.9 5,365.7 5,391.6 5,423.8 5,489.0 5,504.8 5,554.7 5,590.4 5,668.7 5,800.0 3,573.8 3,801.5 3,960.1 4,159.5 4,404.2 4,658.1 4,902.1 5,148.3 5,141.8 5,301.9 5,109.2 5,129.2 5,180.2 5,174.4 5,131.4 5,125.2 5,121.3 5,189.3 5,231.3 5,298.7 5,320.7 5,357.1 5,382.1 5,464.9 5,582.8 Price, costs, and profits per unit of real output (dollars) Price per unit of real gross product of nonfinancial corporate business 1 Compensation of employees (unit labor cost) 0.967 .983 .996 1.000 1.007 1.011 1.016 1.029 1.041 1.036 1.023 1.028 1.030 1.032 1.037 1.042 1.048 1.039 1.037 1.036 1.035 1.037 1.039 1.037 1.039 0.641 .639 .645 .641 .644 .656 .667 .688 .695 .680 .682 .683 .690 .697 .699 .699 .698 .684 .682 .680 .679 .678 .678 .671 .661 deflator for gross product of nonfinancial corporate business divided by 100. business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. profits from current production. 4 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments 3 Unit nonlabor cost Total 0.236 .238 .239 .236 .237 .240 .243 .250 .267 .270 .245 .250 .252 .256 .262 .266 .272 .268 .268 .269 .271 .271 .269 .265 .262 Consumption of fixed capital Indirect business tax, etc.2 Net interest 0.108 .109 .110 .111 .112 .112 .113 .116 .127 .129 .114 .116 .117 .119 .122 .125 .134 .127 .128 .129 .130 .130 .129 .127 .124 0.098 .101 .100 .099 .098 .098 .098 .099 .102 .104 .098 .099 .099 .100 .102 .103 .099 .103 .103 .103 .104 .104 .104 .102 .103 0.030 .028 .029 .026 .027 .030 .032 .035 .038 .037 .033 .035 .036 .037 .038 .038 .039 .038 .037 .037 .037 .037 .036 .036 .035 Total 0.091 .106 .112 .122 .126 .114 .106 .090 .079 .086 .096 .096 .088 .079 .075 .077 .079 .087 .086 .087 .084 .089 .090 .102 .115 Profits tax liability 0.029 .034 .035 .036 .036 .033 .034 .033 .024 .025 .036 .036 .033 .030 .026 .027 .025 .018 .023 .025 .025 .027 .028 .028 .031 Profits after tax 4 0.062 .072 .077 .086 .090 .081 .072 .056 .055 .062 .060 .060 .055 .050 .049 .050 .053 .068 .064 .062 .059 .062 .062 .074 .083 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2 Indirect 3 Unit 3 NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] National income Period 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2000: ...................................... ...................................... ...................................... ...................................... ...................................... ...................................... ...................................... ...................................... ...................................... ...................................... I ................................. II ............................... III .............................. IV .............................. 2001: I ................................. II ............................... III .............................. IV .............................. 2002: I ................................. II ............................... III .............................. IV .............................. 2003: I ................................. II ............................... III r ............................. 1 Includes Compensation of employees1 5,251.9 5,556.8 5,876.7 6,210.4 6,618.4 7,041.4 7,468.7 7,984.4 8,122.0 8,340.1 7,860.2 7,954.5 8,048.3 8,074.8 8,092.1 8,110.1 8,089.1 8,196.8 8,268.5 8,328.0 8,349.9 8,413.9 8,495.5 8,618.0 8,796.1 Proprietors’ income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Farm 3,814.4 4,016.2 4,202.5 4,395.6 4,651.3 4,989.6 5,308.8 5,723.4 5,874.9 5,969.5 5,627.3 5,670.5 5,773.1 5,822.7 5,878.9 5,879.3 5,880.4 5,860.9 5,908.4 5,963.9 5,988.4 6,017.4 6,064.5 6,094.5 6,131.0 Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Nonfarm 30.1 31.9 22.2 34.3 29.7 25.6 27.7 22.6 19.0 12.9 22.3 25.0 21.7 21.2 19.3 18.4 19.3 19.2 21.7 7.5 10.7 11.7 14.2 15.4 20.4 431.7 444.6 475.5 510.5 551.5 598.2 650.7 692.2 708.8 743.7 680.2 693.8 696.9 698.1 701.9 708.2 713.1 712.1 726.7 740.0 748.0 759.9 770.2 789.1 814.0 90.9 110.3 117.9 129.7 128.3 138.6 149.1 146.6 137.9 142.4 151.4 146.7 144.9 143.5 137.0 134.3 140.8 139.3 141.3 153.5 144.1 130.6 126.9 115.3 121.0 employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total Profits before tax Total 510.5 573.2 668.8 754.0 833.8 777.4 805.8 788.1 731.6 787.4 807.6 807.3 787.7 749.7 706.5 721.4 687.2 811.4 797.6 785.0 771.0 796.1 816.5 897.1 1,002.6 Inventory valuation adjustment 510.4 573.4 668.5 726.3 792.4 721.1 762.1 782.3 670.2 665.2 796.9 800.5 780.6 751.1 707.0 720.2 654.3 599.1 639.4 657.9 668.5 694.9 728.1 700.2 778.4 ¥4.0 ¥12.4 ¥18.3 3.1 8.4 18.3 ¥4.2 ¥15.0 5.0 ¥6.9 ¥22.6 ¥16.4 ¥8.3 ¥12.5 ¥10.1 ¥6.2 8.9 27.2 1.9 ¥5.7 ¥15.1 ¥8.5 ¥26.9 ¥2.2 ¥5.6 506.4 561.0 650.2 729.4 800.8 739.4 757.9 767.3 675.1 658.3 774.3 784.2 772.3 738.6 696.9 714.0 663.2 626.3 641.3 652.2 653.4 686.4 701.2 698.1 772.7 Capital consumption adjustment Net interest 4.1 12.2 18.6 24.6 32.9 38.0 47.9 20.8 56.5 129.1 33.4 23.1 15.4 11.1 9.6 7.3 23.9 185.1 156.3 132.8 117.6 109.7 115.3 199.0 229.9 374.3 380.5 389.8 386.3 423.9 511.9 526.6 611.5 649.8 684.2 571.3 611.1 624.0 639.6 648.5 648.6 648.3 653.9 672.8 678.1 687.6 698.3 703.3 706.6 707.1 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of chained (1996) dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Durable goods Period 1993 ............... 1994 ............... 1995 ............... 1996 ............... 1997 ............... 1998 ............... 1999 ............... 2000 ............... 2001 ............... 2002 ................ 2000: I .......... II ......... III ....... IV ........ 2001: I .......... II ......... III ....... IV ........ 2002: I .......... II ......... III ....... IV ........ 2003: I .......... II ......... III r ...... Total personal consumption expenditures 4,748.9 4,928.1 5,075.6 5,237.5 5,423.9 5,683.7 5,964.5 6,223.9 6,377.2 6,576.0 6,151.9 6,198.2 6,256.8 6,288.8 6,326.0 6,348.0 6,370.9 6,464.0 6,513.8 6,542.4 6,609.9 6,637.9 6,670.9 6,733.9 6,838.4 Total durable goods 518.3 557.7 583.5 616.5 657.3 726.7 812.5 878.9 931.9 999.9 879.5 871.3 888.5 876.5 900.6 912.4 922.6 992.0 975.9 980.7 1,032.4 1,010.6 1,005.4 1,061.5 1,125.7 Motor vehicles and parts 242.2 255.1 253.4 256.3 264.8 292.0 322.1 338.4 361.9 382.4 347.3 333.8 343.6 329.1 345.1 349.5 352.8 400.4 370.0 369.1 407.6 382.8 374.9 403.0 437.0 Furniture and household equipment 177.4 196.3 215.4 236.9 261.9 293.3 335.1 374.0 398.0 438.1 366.0 372.2 377.1 380.6 386.0 392.8 399.5 413.6 428.2 435.2 441.4 447.5 447.8 466.6 489.9 Nondurable goods Other 100.7 107.6 115.0 123.3 130.8 141.8 156.5 169.6 175.3 185.8 167.8 168.6 170.7 171.3 173.1 174.2 175.0 178.9 184.2 184.1 187.0 188.1 191.3 199.1 204.9 Total nondurable goods 1,430.3 1,485.1 1,529.0 1,574.1 1,619.9 1,686.4 1,765.1 1,833.8 1,869.8 1,929.5 1,809.7 1,831.6 1,840.9 1,853.1 1,863.7 1,862.3 1,868.3 1,885.0 1,921.4 1,920.9 1,925.8 1,950.0 1,978.9 1,985.6 2,022.2 Food 745.1 764.9 777.0 786.0 794.5 819.4 846.8 879.0 887.0 902.3 870.8 880.5 880.7 883.9 889.1 887.4 884.3 887.1 901.4 899.2 897.9 910.7 929.7 931.4 946.8 1 Includes other items, not shown separately. NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1996) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. 4 Clothing and shoes 218.5 231.6 244.3 258.6 271.6 290.4 312.1 329.4 337.7 357.0 322.3 327.9 332.3 335.1 334.3 334.7 337.1 344.8 355.8 355.1 355.3 361.8 364.0 369.3 377.6 Gasoline and oil 115.4 117.4 120.2 124.2 128.1 131.8 136.4 135.7 138.8 145.1 134.4 135.9 136.1 136.3 137.6 136.2 139.9 141.4 145.1 144.7 145.4 145.1 146.2 145.2 147.3 Services Fuel oil and coal 14.0 15.0 15.7 15.6 15.0 14.3 14.7 14.0 12.6 12.7 13.3 14.2 14.0 14.5 13.9 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.4 12.1 12.4 14.0 13.3 12.1 13.0 Other 338.5 356.8 372.0 389.8 410.8 430.8 455.7 477.0 495.5 515.8 469.8 474.1 479.2 484.7 490.0 493.5 496.5 502.0 510.1 513.1 518.0 521.9 528.9 532.2 542.5 Total services 1 2,802.5 2,886.2 2,963.4 3,047.0 3,147.0 3,273.4 3,395.4 3,524.5 3,594.9 3,675.6 3,477.7 3,508.2 3,541.7 3,570.6 3,576.3 3,589.3 3,597.5 3,616.6 3,642.2 3,666.2 3,687.0 3,707.0 3,714.9 3,728.0 3,747.2 Housing 728.1 749.1 763.7 772.6 787.2 808.7 835.0 851.3 866.0 880.1 844.7 849.5 853.4 857.5 862.0 865.1 867.1 869.6 874.0 878.5 882.1 885.8 889.9 893.8 898.2 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Medical care 775.4 783.1 797.7 814.4 835.4 857.7 875.6 900.1 938.3 978.6 888.5 896.2 903.2 912.5 921.4 932.7 944.3 954.9 963.4 974.7 984.4 992.0 1,002.1 1,012.7 1,023.4 Retail sales of new passenger cars and light trucks (millions of units) 13.9 15.0 14.7 15.0 15.1 15.4 16.8 17.2 17.0 16.7 18.1 17.1 17.4 16.3 16.9 16.5 16.2 18.4 16.3 16.3 17.6 16.5 15.8 16.2 17.6 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $35.1 billion (annual rate) in October, following an increase of $28.6 billion in September. Wages and salaries rose $9.3 billion in October, following an increase of $6.5 billion in September. [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1993 ................................................................. 1994 ................................................................. 1995 ................................................................. 1996 ................................................................. 1997 ................................................................ 1998 ................................................................ 1999 ................................................................ 2000 ................................................................ 2001 ................................................................ 2002 ................................................................ 2002: Oct ....................................................... Nov ...................................................... Dec ....................................................... 2003: Jan ....................................................... Feb ....................................................... Mar ...................................................... Apr ....................................................... May ...................................................... June ..................................................... July r ..................................................... Aug r ..................................................... Sept r .................................................... Oct p ...................................................... Total personal income 5,610.0 5,888.0 6,200.9 6,547.4 6,937.0 7,426.0 7,786.5 8,406.6 8,685.3 8,922.2 8,983.1 9,007.1 9,047.4 9,058.3 9,080.2 9,102.0 9,119.8 9,155.4 9,192.9 9,219.4 9,248.9 9,277.5 9,312.6 Wage and salary disbursements 1 3,085.2 3,236.7 3,424.7 3,626.5 3,888.9 4,192.8 4,470.4 4,836.3 4,950.6 4,996.4 5,009.7 5,020.1 5,039.5 5,039.4 5,057.2 5,064.9 5,064.3 5,077.6 5,095.6 5,097.3 5,109.5 5,116.0 5,125.3 Proprietors’ income 3 Other labor income 1 2 482.8 507.5 497.0 490.0 475.4 490.6 510.2 544.2 570.4 610.6 625.9 630.1 634.4 637.0 639.4 641.1 642.8 645.2 646.9 648.0 649.8 651.2 653.0 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. 2 Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds. Farm 30.1 31.9 22.2 34.3 29.7 25.6 27.7 22.6 19.0 12.9 13.0 11.8 10.2 12.3 14.4 15.9 15.8 15.1 15.2 19.0 21.0 21.2 27.6 Nonfarm 431.7 444.6 475.5 510.5 551.5 598.2 650.7 692.2 708.8 743.7 756.7 758.6 764.4 771.0 767.9 771.7 778.9 788.4 800.1 810.5 812.5 818.8 822.1 Rental income of persons 4 90.9 110.3 117.9 129.7 128.3 138.6 149.1 146.6 137.9 142.4 133.2 130.6 127.9 127.5 126.9 126.2 121.3 115.2 109.4 115.0 121.1 127.0 135.0 Personal dividend income 203.0 234.7 254.0 297.4 334.9 348.3 328.0 375.7 409.2 433.8 441.6 443.8 446.0 448.6 451.2 453.7 456.4 459.1 461.5 463.9 466.5 469.1 471.6 Personal interest income 725.5 742.4 792.5 810.6 864.0 964.4 969.2 1,077.0 1,091.3 1,078.5 1,078.8 1,080.9 1,083.1 1,079.4 1,075.8 1,072.2 1,076.8 1,081.5 1,086.1 1,084.1 1,082.0 1,079.9 1,084.1 Transfer payments 5 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance 798.6 833.9 885.9 928.8 962.2 983.7 1,018.5 1,070.3 1,170.4 1,288.0 1,309.9 1,317.6 1,329.8 1,333.9 1,339.6 1,348.9 1,356.3 1,367.2 1,373.2 1,377.1 1,383.0 1,391.4 1,391.9 237.8 254.1 268.8 280.4 297.9 316.3 337.4 358.4 372.3 384.0 385.7 386.6 388.0 390.8 392.1 392.7 392.9 393.9 395.2 395.6 396.6 397.2 397.9 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. capital consumption adjustment. mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4 With 5 Consists 5 DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME According to revised estimates, per capita disposable personal income in chained (1996) dollars rose at an annual rate of 6.2 percent in the third quarter of 2003. Period Personal income Less: Personal tax and nontax payments Equals: Disposable personal income Less: Personal outlays 1 Equals: Personal saving Disposable personal income in billions of chained (1996) dollars Per capita disposable personal income Current dollars Billions of dollars 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. 5,610.0 5,888.0 6,200.9 6,547.4 6,937.0 7,426.0 7,786.5 8,406.6 8,685.3 8,922.2 674.6 722.6 778.3 869.7 968.8 1,070.4 1,159.1 1,286.4 1,292.1 1,111.9 4,935.3 5,165.4 5,422.6 5,677.7 5,968.2 6,355.6 6,627.4 7,120.2 7,393.2 7,810.3 Chained (1996) dollars Per capita personal consumption expenditures Current dollars Chained (1996) dollars Dollars 4,584.5 4,849.9 5,120.2 5,405.6 5,715.3 6,054.1 6,453.3 6,918.6 7,223.5 7,524.5 350.8 315.5 302.4 272.1 252.9 301.5 174.0 201.5 169.7 285.8 5,261.3 5,397.2 5,539.1 5,677.7 5,854.5 6,168.6 6,328.4 6,630.3 6,748.0 7,032.2 18,981 19,626 20,361 21,072 21,887 23,037 23,749 25,237 25,957 27,170 Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population, including Armed Forces overseas (thousands) 2 Percent 20,235 20,507 20,798 21,072 21,470 22,359 22,678 23,501 23,692 24,463 17,133 17,920 18,657 19,438 20,277 21,226 22,384 23,690 24,531 25,408 18,264 18,724 19,058 19,438 19,891 20,601 21,373 22,061 22,390 22,877 0.1 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.9 4.1 1.4 3.6 .8 3.3 7.1 6.1 5.6 4.8 4.2 4.7 2.6 2.8 2.3 3.7 260,011 263,194 266,327 269,448 272,687 275,891 279,062 282,128 284,822 287,456 23,234 23,451 23,637 23,680 23,624 23,537 24,071 23,537 24,296 24,479 24,527 24,551 24,591 24,685 25,060 23,311 23,562 23,847 24,039 24,330 24,468 24,491 24,834 25,040 25,271 25,579 25,740 25,985 26,217 26,701 21,887 21,998 22,150 22,206 22,291 22,317 22,342 22,609 22,735 22,790 22,969 23,010 23,074 23,234 23,528 7.3 3.8 3.2 .7 ¥.9 ¥1.5 9.4 ¥8.6 13.5 3.0 .8 .4 .7 1.5 6.2 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.4 1.9 4.0 .8 3.5 4.0 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.4 281,076 281,758 282,476 283,202 283,794 284,442 285,154 285,898 286,507 287,072 287,770 288,475 289,109 289,834 290,653 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 2000: I ............. II ........... III .......... IV .......... 2001: I ............. II ........... III .......... IV .......... 2002: I ............. II ........... III .......... IV .......... 2003: I ............. II ........... III r ........ 8,211.6 8,350.2 8,487.8 8,576.6 8,658.1 8,676.2 8,706.2 8,700.9 8,803.4 8,914.0 8,958.9 9,012.5 9,080.2 9,156.0 9,248.6 1,256.3 1,273.0 1,299.6 1,316.7 1,340.6 1,336.1 1,181.9 1,309.7 1,136.8 1,121.8 1,099.0 1,090.1 1,073.6 1,082.6 982.5 6,955.3 7,077.2 7,188.2 7,259.8 7,317.5 7,340.0 7,524.2 7,391.2 7,666.7 7,792.2 7,859.9 7,922.5 8,006.6 8,073.4 8,266.1 6,775.9 6,869.8 6,976.7 7,052.1 7,143.9 7,198.5 7,222.0 7,329.6 7,396.3 7,477.9 7,583.0 7,640.7 7,727.6 7,813.7 7,982.4 179.4 207.5 211.5 207.7 173.7 141.6 302.2 61.5 270.4 314.3 276.9 281.8 278.9 259.7 283.7 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by persons, and personal transfer payments to rest of the world (net). 6 6,530.4 6,607.6 6,676.8 6,706.2 6,704.3 6,694.8 6,864.0 6,729.1 6,961.0 7,027.2 7,058.1 7,082.3 7,109.6 7,154.7 7,283.7 24,745 25,118 25,447 25,635 25,785 25,805 26,387 25,853 26,759 27,144 27,313 27,463 27,694 27,855 28,440 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME According to the forecast for 2003, gross farm income is expected to rise $31.0 billion and net farm income, $20.5 billion. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from farming Gross farm income Period Cash marketing receipts Total 1 Total 1993 ................................ 1994 ................................ 1995 ................................ 1996 ................................ 1997 ................................ 1998 ................................ 1999 ................................ 2000 ................................ 2001 ................................ 2002 ................................ 2003 p .............................. 2001: I .......................... II ......................... III ........................ IV ........................ 2002: I .......................... II ......................... III ........................ IV ........................ 2003: I .......................... II ......................... III p ...................... IV p ....................... 205.1 216.2 210.9 235.9 238.3 232.3 234.5 241.4 248.4 228.2 259.2 242.3 243.1 254.0 254.2 228.9 223.2 225.7 234.9 253.2 252.2 257.6 273.9 178.3 181.4 188.2 199.5 207.9 196.2 187.6 192.0 199.8 192.9 209.9 196.0 204.2 198.9 200.1 183.7 195.5 196.5 196.1 184.6 215.2 219.8 220.1 Livestock and products 90.5 88.3 87.2 92.9 96.5 94.1 95.6 99.5 106.4 93.5 104.3 105.2 105.8 105.9 108.8 89.4 92.2 95.9 96.4 89.1 100.2 114.6 113.2 1 Cash marketing receipts, Government payments, value of changes in inventories, other farm related cash income, and nonmoney income produced by farms including imputed rent of operator residences. 2 Crop receipts include proceeds received from commodities placed under Commodity Credit Corporation loans. Crops 2 87.7 93.1 101.0 106.5 111.4 102.1 92.0 92.4 93.4 99.5 105.6 90.8 98.3 93.0 91.4 94.3 103.3 100.6 99.7 95.6 115.0 105.1 106.9 Value of inventory changes 3 ¥4.2 8.3 ¥5.0 7.9 .6 ¥.6 ¥.2 1.6 1.2 ¥3.1 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.0 .8 ¥3.7 ¥3.6 ¥2.7 ¥2.2 1.1 1.1 .9 .7 Direct Government payments 4 13.4 7.9 7.3 7.3 7.5 12.4 21.5 22.9 20.7 11.0 19.7 18.1 10.9 27.5 26.4 21.6 4.1 4.7 13.5 38.8 7.3 8.4 24.3 Production expenses 158.3 164.8 171.2 178.1 187.1 186.0 187.7 193.6 197.8 192.8 203.5 197.7 204.8 198.5 190.4 188.7 198.0 193.9 190.7 191.5 208.2 205.5 208.7 Net farm income 46.8 51.4 39.7 57.8 51.3 46.2 46.8 47.8 50.6 35.3 55.8 44.5 38.4 55.5 63.8 40.1 25.1 31.8 44.2 61.7 44.0 52.1 65.2 3 Physical changes in beginning and ending year inventories of crop and livestock commodities valued at weighted average market prices during the period. 4 Includes only Government payments made directly to farmers. Note.—Data for 2003 are forecast. Source: Department of Agriculture. 7 CORPORATE PROFITS In the third quarter of 2003, according to preliminary estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $78.2 billion (annual rate) and profits after tax rose $49.5 billion. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment 1 Profits after tax Domestic industries Period Profits before tax Nonfinancial Total 2 Total Financial Total 3 Manufacturing Transportation4 Wholesale Tax liability Total Dividends Undistributed profits Inventory valuation adjustment Retail .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 506.4 561.0 650.2 729.4 800.8 739.4 757.9 767.3 675.1 658.3 429.6 483.7 558.2 628.6 690.2 637.2 637.6 624.0 524.4 539.0 127.9 114.7 154.3 165.3 185.7 158.4 181.7 201.0 190.6 217.3 301.7 369.0 403.8 463.3 504.5 478.8 455.9 423.0 333.7 321.7 108.4 139.6 166.1 181.2 195.2 164.3 157.5 159.8 83.4 92.6 69.6 82.9 85.8 91.4 85.0 79.1 57.2 36.6 27.7 16.7 28.2 33.1 29.4 42.6 49.2 55.9 54.4 62.1 44.8 47.3 39.7 46.6 44.1 52.9 63.9 73.8 75.6 73.4 79.1 81.2 510.4 573.4 668.5 726.3 792.4 721.1 762.1 782.3 670.2 665.2 165.4 186.7 211.0 223.6 237.2 238.8 247.8 259.4 199.3 213.3 345.0 386.7 457.5 502.7 555.2 482.3 514.3 522.9 470.9 451.9 203.1 234.9 254.2 297.7 335.2 348.7 328.4 376.1 409.6 434.3 141.9 151.8 203.3 205.0 220.0 133.6 185.9 146.8 61.2 17.6 ¥4.0 ¥12.4 ¥18.3 3.1 8.4 18.3 ¥4.2 ¥15.0 5.0 ¥6.9 2000: I ......... II ....... III ...... IV ...... 2001: I ......... II ....... III ...... IV ...... 2002: I ......... II ....... III ...... IV ...... 2003: I ......... II ....... III p .... 774.3 784.2 772.3 738.6 696.9 714.0 663.2 626.3 641.3 652.2 653.4 686.4 701.2 698.1 772.7 642.7 642.7 626.9 583.6 560.8 553.6 521.4 461.6 509.3 537.1 537.3 572.3 594.7 589.9 663.1 201.7 193.1 204.5 204.9 208.2 191.6 162.7 200.1 218.2 218.5 216.1 216.5 230.3 226.6 242.7 441.0 449.7 422.4 378.8 352.6 362.0 358.7 261.5 291.1 318.6 321.2 355.8 364.4 363.3 420.4 167.6 176.1 160.7 134.6 92.3 99.2 91.1 50.9 68.9 91.9 100.5 108.9 122.0 106.9 ................ 43.6 35.7 34.4 32.8 36.6 34.3 33.3 6.5 15.0 17.1 13.2 21.5 20.1 33.8 ................ 57.3 66.7 67.1 57.4 45.2 41.0 45.9 46.9 41.2 44.8 44.5 58.9 51.4 57.3 .............. 77.7 74.1 74.0 67.9 75.7 77.8 82.6 80.5 81.4 86.0 82.5 75.1 74.8 85.9 .............. 796.9 800.5 780.6 751.1 707.0 720.2 654.3 599.1 639.4 657.9 668.5 694.9 728.1 700.2 778.4 270.8 267.3 257.4 241.9 217.3 213.1 196.2 170.6 202.4 213.7 214.7 222.4 237.8 234.3 262.9 526.1 533.3 523.2 509.2 489.7 507.1 458.1 428.5 437.0 444.3 453.8 472.5 490.2 465.9 515.4 351.1 369.7 386.1 397.6 402.9 406.5 411.4 417.7 424.2 430.8 437.7 444.3 451.6 459.5 467.0 174.9 163.6 137.1 111.6 86.8 100.7 46.7 10.8 12.8 13.5 16.1 28.2 38.6 6.4 48.4 ¥22.6 ¥16.4 ¥8.3 ¥12.5 ¥10.1 ¥6.2 8.9 27.2 1.9 ¥5.7 ¥15.1 ¥8.5 ¥26.9 ¥2.2 ¥5.6 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. rest of the world, not shown separately. industries not shown separately. 2 Includes 3 Includes 8 4 Transportation and public utilities. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. REAL GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT In the third quarter of 2003, according to revised estimates, nonresidential fixed investment in chained (1996) dollars rose $39.8 billion (annual rate) and residential investment rose $21.7 billion. There was a decrease of $14.1 billion in inventories following a decrease of $17.6 billion in the second quarter. [Billions of chained (1996) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Fixed investment Period 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Gross private domestic investment Change in private inventories Nonresidential Total Total Equipment and software Residential Structures Total Nonfarm ................................................................................. ................................................................................. ................................................................................. ................................................................................. ................................................................................. ................................................................................. ................................................................................. ................................................................................. ................................................................................. ................................................................................. 977.9 1,107.0 1,140.6 1,242.7 1,393.3 1,558.0 1,660.5 1,762.9 1,574.6 1,589.6 958.4 1,045.9 1,109.2 1,212.7 1,328.6 1,480.0 1,595.2 1,691.9 1,627.4 1,577.3 683.6 744.6 817.5 899.4 1,009.3 1,135.9 1,228.4 1,324.2 1,255.1 1,183.4 198.9 200.5 210.1 225.0 245.4 262.2 258.6 275.5 270.9 226.4 487.1 544.9 607.6 674.4 764.2 875.4 975.9 1,056.0 988.2 971.1 276.0 302.7 291.7 313.3 319.7 345.1 368.3 372.4 373.5 388.2 20.0 66.8 30.4 30.0 63.8 76.7 62.8 65.0 ¥61.4 5.2 28.6 53.6 42.6 22.1 60.6 75.0 64.1 67.2 ¥63.2 4.1 2000: I ............................................................................ II ........................................................................... III ......................................................................... IV .......................................................................... 2001: I ............................................................................ II ........................................................................... III ......................................................................... IV .......................................................................... 2002: I ............................................................................ II ........................................................................... III ......................................................................... IV .......................................................................... 2003: I ............................................................................ II ........................................................................... III r ........................................................................ 1,727.8 1,798.1 1,770.3 1,755.2 1,661.8 1,583.5 1,562.7 1,490.3 1,554.0 1,583.9 1,598.0 1,622.4 1,600.4 1,608.3 1,676.8 1,673.6 1,700.9 1,701.7 1,691.3 1,682.1 1,633.5 1,615.7 1,578.4 1,576.4 1,572.6 1,571.6 1,588.5 1,587.9 1,615.3 1,679.0 1,297.1 1,329.1 1,340.7 1,329.9 1,311.4 1,261.0 1,241.7 1,206.4 1,188.4 1,181.1 1,178.7 1,185.3 1,172.1 1,193.0 1,232.8 267.0 272.3 280.2 282.7 280.4 274.4 276.3 252.7 243.2 231.7 218.2 212.6 211.0 213.2 213.3 1,038.0 1,065.3 1,067.7 1,053.1 1,036.1 989.9 966.4 960.3 953.7 961.4 977.2 992.1 979.9 999.5 1,042.7 379.1 376.2 367.2 367.2 374.5 374.0 374.3 371.0 383.6 386.1 387.1 395.9 405.5 412.0 433.7 45.3 91.5 63.1 59.9 ¥26.9 ¥58.3 ¥61.8 ¥98.4 ¥28.9 4.9 18.8 25.8 4.8 ¥17.6 ¥14.1 58.9 88.6 64.6 56.8 ¥32.6 ¥54.9 ¥63.6 ¥101.5 ¥35.1 4.2 20.8 26.5 3.8 ¥17.1 ¥14.4 NOTE.—See p. 10 for further detail on fixed investment by type. Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1996) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9 REAL PRIVATE FIXED INVESTMENT BY TYPE [Billions of chained (1996) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nonresidential Residential Structures Period 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2000: ............................... ............................... ............................... ............................... ............................... ............................... ............................... ............................... ............................... ............................... I .......................... II ......................... III ....................... IV ........................ 2001: I .......................... II ......................... III ....................... IV ........................ 2002: I .......................... II ......................... III ....................... IV ........................ 2003: I .......................... II ......................... III r ...................... Total nonresidential 683.6 744.6 817.5 899.4 1,009.3 1,135.9 1,228.4 1,324.2 1,255.1 1,183.4 1,297.1 1,329.1 1,340.7 1,329.9 1,311.4 1,261.0 1,241.7 1,206.4 1,188.4 1,181.1 1,178.7 1,185.3 1,172.1 1,193.0 1,232.8 Total 1 198.9 200.5 210.1 225.0 245.4 262.2 258.6 275.5 270.9 226.4 267.0 272.3 280.2 282.7 280.4 274.4 276.3 252.7 243.2 231.7 218.2 212.6 211.0 213.2 213.3 Structures Equipment and software Information processing equipment and software Nonresidential buildings, including farm Utilities 131.7 137.2 147.6 161.7 177.0 188.3 185.5 192.3 178.7 145.6 188.4 192.4 194.5 193.9 193.8 183.2 174.2 163.5 157.1 148.2 139.1 137.8 136.5 137.2 138.0 38.4 36.1 36.8 36.0 35.3 42.7 45.7 50.4 50.3 47.3 48.3 49.3 51.1 52.9 50.6 51.5 49.7 49.3 50.8 48.4 45.6 44.6 43.2 40.5 38.4 Mining exploration, shafts, and wells Total 2 20.5 19.8 18.2 21.1 26.2 25.1 21.6 27.0 34.0 29.2 24.5 25.0 28.6 30.1 30.9 34.6 35.9 34.8 30.2 30.3 29.9 26.5 28.4 32.7 33.7 487.1 544.9 607.6 674.4 764.2 875.4 975.9 1,056.0 988.2 971.1 1,038.0 1,065.3 1,067.7 1,053.1 1,036.1 989.9 966.4 960.3 953.7 961.4 977.2 992.1 979.9 999.5 1,042.7 Total 1 Includes other structures, not shown separately. other items, not shown separately. equipment, not shown separately. 4 Includes multifamily and other structures, not shown separately. Computers and peripheral equipment 183.4 206.6 242.8 287.3 349.8 429.3 508.1 583.3 548.5 563.1 561.3 585.5 591.9 594.3 578.9 549.8 533.4 531.8 540.4 557.0 575.2 579.7 594.5 620.7 653.1 26.4 32.6 49.2 70.9 102.9 147.7 207.4 246.4 239.9 283.7 226.7 249.2 255.9 253.9 253.0 239.0 224.5 243.3 262.1 271.6 297.6 303.2 319.1 354.9 391.0 Software Other Industrial equipment 66.8 74.3 82.0 95.1 119.0 147.1 169.3 184.4 182.0 185.7 181.8 184.3 185.8 185.6 185.5 181.7 180.5 180.6 179.0 184.3 189.4 190.3 192.5 196.8 205.0 96.4 104.9 113.1 121.3 129.8 143.5 157.5 187.4 163.9 158.2 180.2 188.2 189.1 192.2 180.2 165.7 158.6 151.2 154.1 158.5 159.7 160.7 165.3 171.6 178.2 109.6 119.6 131.3 136.4 140.0 145.6 147.5 160.8 153.8 146.9 156.0 159.3 164.5 163.4 164.8 156.4 149.2 144.7 148.3 145.6 147.9 145.9 143.9 143.6 145.0 Transportation equipment Total residential 3 103.4 120.4 128.2 138.9 150.5 168.2 193.2 186.6 163.6 147.0 193.9 192.5 186.9 173.0 167.6 161.6 160.0 165.4 151.5 143.4 141.7 151.4 135.8 133.7 137.8 276.0 302.7 291.7 313.3 319.7 345.1 368.3 372.4 373.5 388.2 379.1 376.2 367.2 367.2 374.5 374.0 374.3 371.0 383.6 386.1 387.1 395.9 405.5 412.0 433.7 Total 4 Single family 269.4 295.8 284.4 305.6 311.8 336.8 359.4 363.0 364.0 378.5 369.7 366.8 357.8 357.8 365.1 364.6 365.0 361.5 373.9 376.4 377.4 386.1 395.6 401.7 422.9 148.0 163.2 147.7 159.1 158.6 175.9 189.0 191.0 192.6 200.5 198.0 193.8 186.5 185.8 192.0 193.1 194.1 191.3 197.2 198.4 199.8 206.5 214.7 216.2 227.1 NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (1996) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2 Includes 3 Includes BUSINESS INVESTMENT [Billions of dollars] Capital expenditures By industry Period Total capital expenditures Total by industry Forestry, fishing Con- Manuand Min- Utili- strucfacagriing ties turtion culing tural services ProFor Real fesscomTransesional, Health panies portaFiWhole- Retail tion Infor- nance tate scien- care Other withand tific, and out sale and maand 1 and emtrade trade waretion insur- rental tech- social and assisployhousance leas- nical tance ees ing ing services For companies with employees 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 .............................. ............................. .............................. ............................. ............................. .............................. 807.1 .............. ........... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ .......... ............ .......... .......... .......... .......... ........... .......... .......... 871.8 .............. ........... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ .......... ............ .......... .......... .......... .......... ........... .......... .......... 970.9 896.5 0.9 40.4 36.0 26.9 203.6 29.2 57.3 51.3 96.5 118.2 85.2 22.3 47.1 81.7 74.4 1,047.0 974.6 1.7 30.6 42.8 23.1 196.4 32.4 64.1 57.3 122.8 130.1 100.6 29.5 51.3 91.8 72.3 1,161.0 1,089.9 1.5 42.5 61.3 25.0 214.8 33.6 69.8 59.9 160.2 133.7 92.5 34.1 52.2 108.9 71.2 1,109.9 1,053.2 1.5 51.1 82.8 24.8 192.4 29.7 66.8 57.5 146.3 131.1 83.1 30.5 52.9 102.6 56.7 1 Includes the following industries: Management of companies and enterprises; administrative and support and waste management; educational services; arts, entertainment, and recreation; accommodation and food services; and other services (except public administration). Also includes an item for structure and equipment expenditures serving multiple industry categories. 10 NOTE.—Data from Annual Capital Expenditures. Industry data are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS): 1997. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE In November, employment rose by 589,000 and unemployment fell by 105,000. [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Civilian employment Period 1993 ...................... 1994 2 .................... 1995 ...................... 1996 ...................... 1997 3 .................... 1998 3 .................... 1999 3 .................... 2000 3 .................... 2001 ..................... 2002 ...................... 2002: Nov ............ Dec ............ 2003: Jan 3 .......... Feb 3 .......... Mar ............ Apr ............. May ............ June ........... July ............ Aug ............ Sept ........... Oct ............. Nov ............ Civilian noninstitutional population NSA Civilian labor force 194,838 196,814 198,584 200,591 203,133 205,220 207,753 212,577 215,092 217,570 218,548 218,741 219,897 220,114 220,317 220,540 220,768 221,014 221,252 221,507 221,779 222,039 222,279 129,200 131,056 132,304 133,943 136,297 137,673 139,368 142,583 143,734 144,863 145,180 145,150 145,838 145,857 145,793 146,473 146,485 147,096 146,540 146,530 146,545 146,793 147,277 Percent 1 Unemployment Total Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over Both sexes 16–19 years 120,259 123,060 124,900 126,708 129,558 131,463 133,488 136,891 136,933 136,485 136,542 136,439 137,536 137,408 137,348 137,687 137,487 137,738 137,478 137,625 137,573 138,014 138,603 62,355 63,294 64,085 64,897 66,284 67,135 67,761 69,634 69,776 69,734 69,617 69,600 69,967 70,293 70,293 70,364 70,144 70,130 70,193 70,203 70,610 70,665 70,978 52,099 53,606 54,396 55,311 56,613 57,278 58,555 60,067 60,417 60,420 60,697 60,676 61,443 61,073 61,227 61,401 61,436 61,753 61,462 61,470 61,120 61,519 61,621 5,805 6,161 6,419 6,500 6,661 7,051 7,172 7,189 6,740 6,332 6,228 6,164 6,125 6,042 5,829 5,923 5,907 5,855 5,823 5,952 5,842 5,830 6,003 1 Civilian labor force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population; and unemployment as percent of civilian labor force. 2 Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods because of a major redesign of the household survey questionnaire. 3 Not strictly comparable with earlier data. Total 8,940 7,996 7,404 7,236 6,739 6,210 5,880 5,692 6,801 8,378 8,637 8,711 8,302 8,450 8,445 8,786 8,998 9,358 9,062 8,905 8,973 8,779 8,674 Men 20 years and over 4,287 3,627 3,239 3,146 2,882 2,580 2,433 2,376 3,040 3,896 4,153 4,145 4,026 3,962 3,944 4,207 4,362 4,562 4,388 4,357 4,295 4,195 4,274 Women 20 years and over Both sexes 16–19 years 3,288 3,049 2,819 2,783 2,585 2,424 2,285 2,235 2,599 3,228 3,224 3,360 3,035 3,237 3,250 3,276 3,297 3,395 3,357 3,361 3,434 3,384 3,298 1,365 1,320 1,346 1,306 1,271 1,205 1,162 1,081 1,162 1,253 1,261 1,206 1,241 1,251 1,251 1,303 1,339 1,401 1,317 1,187 1,243 1,200 1,102 Not in labor force 65,638 65,758 66,280 66,647 66,836 67,547 68,385 69,994 71,359 72,707 73,369 73,591 74,059 74,257 74,524 74,067 74,283 73,918 74,712 74,977 75,234 75,246 75,002 Labor force participation rate Employment/ population ratio Unemployment rate 66.3 66.6 66.6 66.8 67.1 67.1 67.1 67.1 66.8 66.6 66.4 66.4 66.3 66.3 66.2 66.4 66.4 66.6 66.2 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.3 61.7 62.5 62.9 63.2 63.8 64.1 64.3 64.4 63.7 62.7 62.5 62.4 62.5 62.4 62.3 62.4 62.3 62.3 62.1 62.1 62.0 62.2 62.4 6.9 6.1 5.6 5.4 4.9 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 5.7 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.4 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 Data beginning 2000 reflect new population controls based on Census 2000, an additional population adjustment in January 2003, and other changes. Data for February 2003 are not directly comparable with earlier data due to a weighting difference. For details, see The Employment Situation, January 2003 and February 2003. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. NOTE.—See Employment and Earnings for details on breaks in series. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In November, the unemployment rate fell to 5.9 percent from 6.0 percent in October. [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) By race or ethnicity 1 By sex and age Period 1993 ......................... 1994 2 ....................... 1995 ......................... 1996 ......................... 1997 ......................... 1998 ......................... 1999 ......................... 2000 ........................ 2001 ........................ 2002 ........................ 2002: Nov .............. Dec ............... 2003: Jan ............... Feb ............... Mar ............... Apr ............... May ............... June .............. July ............... Aug ............... Sept .............. Oct ............... Nov ............... All civilian workers 6.9 6.1 5.6 5.4 4.9 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 5.7 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.4 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over 6.4 5.4 4.8 4.6 4.2 3.7 3.5 3.3 4.2 5.3 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.9 5.4 4.9 4.8 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.6 4.1 5.1 5.0 5.2 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.1 Both sexes 16–19 years 19.0 17.6 17.3 16.7 16.0 14.6 13.9 13.1 14.7 16.5 16.8 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.7 18.0 18.5 19.3 18.4 16.6 17.5 17.1 15.5 White 6.1 5.3 4.9 4.7 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.5 4.2 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.2 1 Beginning in 2003, persons who selected this race group only. Prior to 2003, persons who reported more than one race were included in the group they identified as the main race. Persons whose ethnicity is identified as Hispanic or Latino may be of any race. 2 Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods. 12 By selected groups Black or African American Asian (NSA) Hispanic or Latino ethnicity 13.0 11.5 10.4 10.5 10.0 8.9 8.0 7.6 8.6 10.2 10.8 11.2 10.3 10.5 10.2 10.9 10.8 11.8 11.1 10.9 11.2 11.5 10.2 .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... 3.6 4.5 5.9 5.6 5.9 5.6 6.0 6.5 5.8 5.1 7.8 6.2 5.9 6.2 6.1 5.2 10.8 9.9 9.3 8.9 7.7 7.2 6.4 5.7 6.6 7.5 7.8 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.5 8.2 8.4 8.2 7.8 7.5 7.2 7.4 Married men, spouse present Women who maintain families (NSA) Full-time workers Part-time workers 9.7 8.9 8.0 8.2 8.1 7.2 6.4 5.9 6.6 8.0 8.0 7.9 8.0 9.0 8.4 8.5 8.3 8.7 9.0 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.3 6.9 6.1 5.5 5.3 4.8 4.3 4.1 3.8 4.7 5.9 6.1 6.1 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.1 7.2 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.9 5.5 5.3 5.8 5.5 5.0 4.4 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.7 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.9 4.4 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 NOTE.—Data relate to persons age 16 years and over. See Note, p. 11. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In November, the percentage of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks fell; the percentages for 5–14 weeks, for 15–26 weeks, and for 27 weeks and over rose. The mean duration of unemployment rose to 20.1 weeks and the median duration rose to 10.4 weeks. [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment (thousands) Percent distribution Less than 5 weeks 5–14 weeks 15–26 weeks Reason for unemployment: percent distribution State programs Number of weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Median Job losers 1 Job leavers Reentrants New entrants Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) 2 Weekly average, thousands 1993 ........................................ 1994 3 ...................................... 1995 ........................................ 1996 ........................................ 1997 ........................................ 1998 ........................................ 1999 ........................................ 2000 ........................................ 2001 ........................................ 2002 ........................................ 2002: Nov .............................. Dec .............................. 2003: Jan ............................... Feb .............................. Mar .............................. Apr ............................... May .............................. June ............................. July .............................. Aug .............................. Sept ............................. Oct .............................. Nov .............................. 1 Beginning 8,940 7,996 7,404 7,236 6,739 6,210 5,880 5,692 6,801 8,378 8,637 8,711 8,302 8,450 8,445 8,786 8,998 9,358 9,062 8,905 8,973 8,779 8,674 36.5 34.1 36.5 36.4 37.7 42.2 43.7 44.9 42.0 34.5 33.9 32.9 32.6 32.5 33.3 32.2 34.3 31.6 30.3 30.7 30.3 31.1 30.1 28.9 30.1 31.6 31.6 31.7 31.4 31.2 31.9 32.3 30.8 29.5 29.3 30.4 30.3 29.6 30.1 29.2 30.9 29.9 29.2 30.8 29.4 29.5 14.5 15.5 14.6 14.6 14.8 12.3 12.8 11.8 14.0 16.3 15.3 16.0 17.2 15.1 15.7 15.9 14.8 16.1 18.1 18.4 15.7 16.5 16.7 20.1 20.3 17.3 17.4 15.8 14.1 12.3 11.4 11.8 18.3 21.3 21.9 19.8 22.1 21.4 21.8 21.7 21.4 21.7 21.8 23.2 23.0 23.7 January 1994, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs. 2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), and Federal (UCFE). Railroad (RR) programs included through 1993. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation or Emergency Unemployment Compensation programs. 3 Data beginning January 1994 are not directly comparable with data for earlier periods. 18.0 18.8 16.6 16.7 15.8 14.5 13.4 12.6 13.1 16.6 17.9 18.4 18.4 18.6 18.0 19.6 19.2 19.8 19.3 19.0 19.7 19.1 20.1 8.3 9.2 8.3 8.3 8.0 6.7 6.4 5.9 6.8 9.1 9.4 9.6 9.8 9.4 9.6 10.2 10.1 12.3 10.0 9.6 10.1 10.3 10.4 54.2 47.7 46.9 46.6 45.1 45.5 44.6 44.2 51.1 55.0 55.9 55.8 54.9 55.9 54.8 54.2 56.5 54.2 55.4 55.6 55.9 55.3 54.2 10.9 9.9 11.1 10.7 11.8 11.8 13.3 13.7 12.3 10.3 9.6 9.9 9.9 9.1 9.4 9.4 8.6 9.7 8.9 8.8 9.4 8.8 10.8 24.6 34.8 34.1 34.7 34.7 34.3 34.1 34.5 29.9 28.3 27.7 28.2 27.9 28.2 28.4 29.1 27.8 29.1 28.3 28.6 26.9 28.5 28.1 10.3 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.4 8.4 8.0 7.6 6.8 6.4 6.8 6.1 7.4 6.8 7.4 7.3 7.1 7.0 7.5 7.1 7.8 7.3 6.9 2,751 2,670 2,572 2,595 2,323 2,222 2,188 2,110 2,974 3,585 3,486 3,478 3,361 3,429 3,514 3,622 3,716 3,726 3,625 3,630 3,626 3,515 .............. 341 340 357 356 323 321 298 301 404 407 390 409 388 409 423 443 432 427 406 402 403 r 382 p 363 2,845 2,739 2,633 2,650 2,366 2,257 2,219 2,141 3,007 3,618 3,081 3,905 3,968 4,172 4,348 3,708 3,270 3,674 r 3,449 3,379 r 3,227 2,814 ................. NOTE.—Data relate to persons age 16 years and over (except for insured unemployment and initial claims). Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 57,000 in November. [Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 monthly data seasonally adjusted] Goods-producing industries Period Total nonagricultural employment Total 2 Construction Manufacturing Service-providing industries Trade, transportation, and utilities Total Total 3 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2002: ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ Nov ...... Dec ...... 2003: Jan ...... Feb ...... Mar ...... Apr ...... May ..... June .... July ...... Aug ...... Sept r .... Oct r ..... Nov p .... 110,844 114,291 117,298 119,708 122,776 125,930 128,993 131,785 131,826 130,376 130,409 130,198 130,356 130,235 130,084 130,062 129,986 129,903 129,846 129,881 129,980 130,117 130,174 22,219 22,774 23,156 23,410 23,886 24,354 24,465 24,649 23,873 22,619 22,409 22,323 22,288 22,191 22,159 22,119 22,098 22,061 22,001 21,982 21,978 21,970 21,963 4,779 5,095 5,274 5,536 5,813 6,149 6,545 6,787 6,826 6,732 6,745 6,731 6,738 6,700 6,720 6,760 6,786 6,800 6,804 6,825 6,841 6,846 6,856 16,774 17,021 17,241 17,237 17,419 17,560 17,322 17,263 16,441 15,306 15,091 15,020 14,982 14,922 14,874 14,795 14,746 14,692 14,631 14,592 14,573 14,559 14,542 88,625 91,517 94,142 96,299 98,890 101,576 104,528 107,136 107,952 107,757 108,000 107,875 108,068 108,044 107,925 107,943 107,888 107,842 107,845 107,899 108,002 108,147 108,211 Retail trade 22,378 23,128 23,834 24,239 24,700 25,186 25,771 26,225 25,983 25,493 25,406 25,378 25,376 25,346 25,338 25,321 25,282 25,238 25,211 25,217 25,243 25,276 25,258 13,021 13,491 13,897 14,143 14,389 14,609 14,970 15,280 15,239 15,047 15,014 15,006 15,009 14,987 14,995 15,000 14,979 14,964 14,958 14,975 14,987 15,015 14,987 1 Data from the establishment survey. Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who received pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, unpaid family workers, and private household workers. Data from the household survey shown on p. 11 include those workers and also count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off. In the series shown here, persons who work at more than one job are counted each time they appear on a payroll, in contrast to the series shown on p. 11 where persons are counted only once—as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force. See Employment and Earnings for details. 14 2 Includes 3 Includes Financial activities 6,709 6,867 6,827 6,969 7,178 7,462 7,648 7,687 7,807 7,843 7,880 7,889 7,902 7,916 7,930 7,956 7,971 7,972 7,981 7,980 7,986 7,974 7,969 Professional Educa- Leisure and tion and and hosbusihealth ness services pitality services 11,495 12,174 12,844 13,462 14,335 15,147 15,957 16,666 16,476 16,010 16,014 15,972 16,015 16,043 15,980 15,989 16,002 16,006 16,063 16,054 16,107 16,133 16,153 12,303 12,807 13,289 13,683 14,087 14,446 14,798 15,109 15,645 16,184 16,357 16,373 16,405 16,430 16,452 16,483 16,509 16,503 16,487 16,541 16,570 16,626 16,660 9,732 10,100 10,501 10,777 11,018 11,232 11,543 11,862 12,036 11,969 12,069 12,019 12,132 12,084 12,050 12,043 12,026 12,039 12,051 12,051 12,056 12,081 12,102 Other services 4 Government Total 7,018 7,166 7,415 7,630 7,909 8,194 8,506 8,799 8,887 8,768 8,734 8,688 8,662 8,637 8,628 8,625 8,614 8,608 8,594 8,586 8,584 8,576 8,581 18,989 19,275 19,432 19,539 19,664 19,909 20,307 20,790 21,118 21,489 21,540 21,556 21,576 21,588 21,547 21,526 21,484 21,476 21,458 21,470 21,456 21,481 21,488 Federal 3,063 3,018 2,949 2,877 2,806 2,772 2,769 2,865 2,764 2,767 2,782 2,778 2,786 2,791 2,789 2,769 2,761 2,749 2,747 2,745 2,742 2,732 2,723 natural resources and mining, not shown separately. wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, and utilities, not shown sepa- rately. 4 Other services and information. Note.—Data classified by industry based on the 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). For details see Employment and Earnings, June 2003. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Average weekly hours Average gross hourly earnings Manufacturing Period 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2002: ..................... ..................... ..................... .................... .................... ..................... ..................... .................... ..................... ..................... Oct ............ Nov ........... Dec ........... 2003: Jan ........... Feb ........... Mar ........... Apr ........... May ........... June .......... July ........... Aug ........... Sept r ......... Oct r ........... Nov p .......... Total private nonagricultural 1 34.3 34.5 34.3 34.3 34.5 34.5 34.3 34.3 34.0 33.9 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.7 33.8 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.6 33.7 33.7 33.8 33.9 Total 41.1 41.7 41.3 41.3 41.7 41.4 41.4 41.3 40.3 40.5 40.3 40.4 40.5 40.4 40.4 40.4 40.1 40.2 40.3 40.1 40.2 40.5 40.6 40.8 Average gross weekly earnings Total private nonagricultural 1 Overtime 4.4 5.0 4.7 4.8 5.1 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 Current dollars $11.03 11.32 11.64 12.03 12.49 13.00 13.47 14.00 14.53 14.95 15.10 15.14 15.20 15.22 15.29 15.29 15.30 15.35 15.38 15.43 15.45 15.44 15.45 15.46 1982 dollars 2 $7.52 7.53 7.53 7.57 7.68 7.89 8.00 8.03 8.11 8.24 8.26 8.27 8.30 8.28 8.26 8.22 8.27 8.31 8.30 8.32 8.30 8.27 8.29 .............. Total private nonagricultural 1 Manufacturing Current dollars $11.70 12.04 12.34 12.75 13.14 13.45 13.85 14.32 14.76 15.29 15.45 15.48 15.55 15.59 15.63 15.64 15.63 15.68 15.72 15.73 15.79 15.83 15.80 15.83 1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. 2 Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI–W) (on a 1982=100 base). Percent change from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural Current dollars 1982 dollars 2 Manufacturing Construction Retail trade $378.40 390.73 399.53 412.74 431.25 448.04 462.49 480.41 493.20 506.22 510.38 511.73 513.76 514.44 515.27 516.80 515.61 517.30 518.31 518.45 520.67 520.33 522.21 524.09 $258.12 259.97 258.43 259.58 265.22 271.87 274.64 275.62 275.38 278.91 279.05 279.63 280.44 279.89 278.52 277.85 278.56 279.92 279.87 279.64 279.63 278.70 280.16 .............. $480.80 502.12 509.26 526.55 548.22 557.12 573.17 590.65 595.19 618.87 622.64 625.39 629.78 629.84 631.45 631.86 626.76 630.34 633.52 630.77 634.76 641.12 641.48 645.86 $539.81 558.53 571.57 588.48 609.48 629.75 655.11 685.78 695.89 711.61 712.81 710.22 718.54 730.15 708.38 728.72 716.31 729.58 728.06 726.17 733.01 730.37 730.75 730.00 $256.89 265.77 272.56 282.76 295.97 310.34 321.63 333.38 346.16 360.53 363.69 363.13 364.36 364.98 364.72 366.17 364.36 366.52 367.14 365.98 368.37 368.95 370.45 369.56 Current dollars 2.9 3.3 2.3 3.3 4.5 3.9 3.2 3.9 2.7 2.6 3.4 3.0 2.9 3.3 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.1 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.3 2.4 1982 dollars 0.1 .7 ¥.6 .4 2.2 2.5 1.0 .4 ¥.1 1.3 1.5 .9 .4 .6 ¥.2 ¥.3 .4 .6 .0 .5 .1 ¥.3 .4 .............. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY Index (June 1989 = 100) Percent change from 3 months earlier Period Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits 1 Total compensation Wages and salaries 12 months earlier Benefits 1 Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits 1 Not seasonally adjusted 1993: 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec .................................................................. .................................................................. ................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. 119.8 123.5 126.7 130.6 135.1 139.8 144.6 150.9 157.2 162.3 116.4 119.7 123.1 127.3 132.3 137.4 142.2 147.7 153.3 157.5 2000: Mar ................................................................. June ............................................................... Sept ................................................................ Dec ................................................................. 2001: Mar ................................................................. June ............................................................... Sept ................................................................ Dec ................................................................. 2002: Mar ................................................................. June ............................................................... Sept ................................................................ Dec ................................................................. 2003: Mar ................................................................. June ................................................................ Sept ................................................................. 146.6 148.2 149.7 151.1 152.8 154.2 155.7 157.4 158.8 160.5 161.5 162.7 164.9 166.3 168.0 143.9 145.4 146.7 147.9 149.4 150.8 152.0 153.4 154.8 156.2 156.9 157.7 159.3 160.3 161.7 128.3 133.0 135.9 138.6 141.8 145.2 150.2 158.6 166.7 174.6 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. 1.1 1.0 .9 .8 1.0 .9 .8 .9 .9 .9 .4 .5 1.0 .6 .9 2.0 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.2 2.4 1.3 1.4 Seasonally adjusted 1 Employer costs for employee benefits. NOTE.—The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries. 153.2 155.1 157.0 158.7 160.8 162.5 164.7 166.8 168.6 170.8 172.6 174.7 178.9 181.3 183.8 1.3 1.1 1.0 .9 1.1 .9 1.0 1.1 .9 1.1 .6 .7 1.4 .8 1.0 3.6 3.1 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.4 4.4 4.2 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.8 3.4 3.9 3.9 3.5 3.9 3.8 2.7 5.0 3.7 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.4 3.4 5.6 5.1 4.7 Not seasonally adjusted 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.2 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.2 3.8 3.5 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.6 3.2 2.7 3.0 2.6 3.0 5.5 5.7 6.0 5.6 5.0 4.8 4.9 5.1 4.8 5.1 4.8 4.7 6.1 6.1 6.5 Data exclude farm and household workers. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output per hour of all persons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Output 1 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Hours of all persons 2 Business sector Compensation per hour 3 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real compensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit labor costs Implicit price deflator 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Indexes, 1992=100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ 100.5 101.7 102.3 105.1 107.4 110.2 113.0 116.5 118.8 125.1 100.5 101.8 102.7 105.3 107.4 110.2 112.8 116.1 118.3 124.7 103.1 108.1 111.5 116.4 122.5 128.5 134.5 140.0 139.8 143.5 103.3 108.2 111.8 116.7 122.7 128.8 134.8 140.2 140.1 143.9 102.6 106.3 108.9 110.7 114.0 116.6 119.0 120.1 117.6 114.7 102.9 106.3 108.9 110.8 114.2 116.9 119.6 120.7 118.4 115.4 102.4 104.4 106.5 109.9 113.2 119.4 124.8 133.5 138.6 142.5 102.2 104.3 106.5 109.8 113.0 119.1 124.3 133.0 137.8 141.7 99.9 99.7 99.4 99.8 100.7 104.8 107.2 111.0 112.1 113.5 99.7 99.6 99.4 99.7 100.5 104.5 106.8 110.6 111.4 112.8 101.9 102.6 104.1 104.6 105.4 108.4 110.4 114.6 116.7 113.9 101.7 102.5 103.7 104.3 105.2 108.1 110.3 114.6 116.5 113.6 102.2 104.0 106.0 107.7 109.7 110.6 111.6 113.5 115.8 116.3 102.2 104.1 106.1 107.6 109.8 110.8 112.1 114.1 116.3 116.9 2000: I ................... II ................. III ................ IV ................ 2001: I ................... II ................. III ................ IV ................ 2002: I ................... II ................. III ................ IV ................ 2003: I ................... II ................. III r * ............ 114.8 116.6 116.8 117.5 117.4 117.8 118.8 121.3 123.9 124.1 125.9 126.4 127.2 129.5 132.2 114.6 116.1 116.4 117.0 116.9 117.4 118.3 120.7 123.4 123.7 125.5 126.0 126.7 128.9 131.8 138.4 140.3 140.4 140.7 140.4 139.4 139.1 140.3 142.3 142.5 144.4 145.0 145.5 147.1 150.7 138.7 140.5 140.6 141.0 140.7 139.7 139.4 140.4 142.5 142.9 144.7 145.3 145.8 147.5 151.1 120.6 120.3 120.2 119.7 119.6 118.3 117.1 115.6 114.9 114.8 114.6 114.7 114.3 113.6 114.0 121.0 121.0 120.8 120.5 120.3 119.0 117.8 116.3 115.5 115.5 115.3 115.3 115.1 114.4 114.7 131.1 131.9 134.6 135.9 137.4 138.2 139.1 139.8 141.0 142.4 143.1 143.7 144.8 146.3 147.1 130.8 131.4 134.2 135.3 136.7 137.4 138.2 138.9 140.2 141.5 142.2 142.8 143.7 145.0 146.1 110.3 110.1 111.4 111.7 111.9 111.6 112.1 112.8 113.4 113.5 113.5 113.4 113.3 114.2 114.2 110.1 109.7 111.0 111.2 111.3 111.0 111.4 112.1 112.8 112.9 112.8 112.7 112.4 113.2 113.4 114.1 113.1 115.3 115.6 117.1 117.3 117.1 115.2 113.8 114.7 113.6 113.7 113.8 112.9 111.3 114.2 113.1 115.3 115.6 117.0 117.1 116.8 115.1 113.6 114.4 113.3 113.3 113.4 112.5 110.8 112.8 113.4 113.7 114.3 115.2 115.8 116.4 115.9 116.0 116.2 116.3 116.8 117.2 117.5 118.0 113.4 113.9 114.3 114.8 115.7 116.3 116.8 116.5 116.4 116.8 116.9 117.3 117.7 117.9 118.3 1.7 .8 1.2 .5 1.0 2.7 2.0 3.9 1.7 ¥2.4 4.9 1.3 .0 ¥.6 15.1 ¥3.6 7.9 1.1 4.7 .3 ¥.9 ¥5.7 ¥5.2 2.9 ¥3.7 ¥.1 .4 ¥3.2 ¥5.8 2.2 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.8 .8 1.0 1.7 2.0 .4 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.1 2.4 2.2 1.1 1.9 3.4 2.2 1.8 ¥1.6 .3 .7 .5 1.5 1.6 1.0 1.7 2.2 1.9 2.0 1.4 2.1 .9 1.2 1.8 1.9 .5 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 2.7 1.9 1.4 1.6 3.3 2.0 1.7 ¥1.0 ¥.2 1.4 .1 1.4 1.4 .8 1.5 Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: 2003: ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ ........................ I ................... II ................. III ................ IV ................ I ................... II ................. III ................ IV ................ I ................... II ................. III ................ IV ................ I ................... II ................. III ................ IV ................ I ................... II ................. III r * ............ 1 Output 0.5 1.2 .6 2.7 2.2 2.6 2.5 3.1 2.0 5.3 3.1 ¥.8 3.6 5.8 .5 6.3 .7 2.6 ¥.5 1.5 3.3 8.7 8.7 .8 5.9 1.5 2.7 7.4 8.6 0.5 1.3 .9 2.5 2.0 2.6 2.3 3.0 1.9 5.4 2.4 ¥.9 3.5 6.3 .3 5.7 .8 2.2 ¥.4 1.6 3.4 8.3 9.3 1.0 5.9 1.7 2.1 7.0 9.4 3.1 4.9 3.1 4.4 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.1 ¥.2 2.7 3.4 2.1 5.9 8.4 2.2 5.4 .4 .9 ¥1.0 ¥2.8 ¥.9 3.5 5.9 .6 5.3 1.7 1.4 4.5 10.2 3.3 4.7 3.4 4.3 5.1 5.0 4.6 4.0 ¥.1 2.7 3.3 1.9 6.0 8.3 1.9 5.4 .2 1.1 ¥.9 ¥2.7 ¥.8 2.9 6.2 .9 5.2 1.7 1.4 4.6 10.3 2.6 3.6 2.5 1.6 3.0 2.2 2.1 .9 ¥2.1 ¥2.5 .3 3.0 2.2 2.4 1.7 ¥.8 ¥.3 ¥1.7 ¥.5 ¥4.3 ¥4.1 ¥4.8 ¥2.6 ¥.2 ¥.6 .2 ¥1.2 ¥2.7 1.4 2.9 3.3 2.4 1.7 3.1 2.4 2.3 1.0 ¥2.0 ¥2.5 .9 2.8 2.4 1.9 1.6 ¥.2 ¥.6 ¥1.0 ¥.5 ¥4.3 ¥4.1 ¥5.0 ¥2.9 .0 ¥.6 .0 ¥.7 ¥2.2 .8 refers to real gross domestic product originating in the sector. 2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers’ contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed. 4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI– U) for recent quarters. The trend from 1978–2002 is based on the consumer price index research series (CPI–U–RS). 5 Current dollar gross domestic output divided by the output index. 16 2.4 1.9 2.1 3.1 3.0 5.5 4.5 6.9 3.8 2.8 8.3 .2 3.5 4.9 15.2 2.6 8.5 3.9 4.6 2.3 2.5 2.1 3.5 4.0 2.1 1.6 3.2 4.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 3.1 2.9 5.4 4.3 7.0 3.6 2.8 7.5 .3 3.5 5.7 15.4 1.9 8.8 3.3 4.3 2.0 2.4 2.1 3.7 3.9 2.0 1.6 2.6 3.6 3.0 ¥0.1 ¥.2 ¥.3 .4 .9 4.0 2.4 3.5 1.0 1.2 6.8 ¥2.7 .4 1.9 11.0 ¥.8 4.7 .9 .8 ¥.9 1.6 2.7 2.2 .4 .0 ¥.4 ¥.6 3.5 .0 ¥0.3 .0 ¥.3 .4 .8 3.9 2.2 3.6 .8 1.2 5.9 ¥2.6 .4 2.6 11.3 ¥1.4 5.0 .4 .5 ¥1.2 1.5 2.7 2.4 .3 ¥.2 ¥.4 ¥1.2 3.0 .7 1.9 .7 1.5 .4 .8 2.8 1.9 3.7 1.8 ¥2.3 5.1 1.1 ¥.1 ¥.8 14.6 ¥3.5 7.8 1.2 5.1 .8 ¥.8 ¥6.1 ¥4.8 3.1 ¥3.6 .1 .5 ¥3.1 ¥5.8 NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. * Data based on GDP data released November 25, 2003. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production and capacity utilization rose in October. (Series revised.) [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Total industrial production 1 Percent Period 1993 r 1994 r 1995 r 1996 r 1997 r 1998 r 1999 r 2000 r 2001 r 2002 r Index, 1997=100 From preceding month Industry production indexes, 1997=100 change 2 From year earlier Capacity utilization rate (output as percent of capacity) 1 Manufacturing Total 1 Durable Nondurable Other (nonNAICS) 1 Mining Utilities Total industry Total manufacturing ..................... ..................... ..................... ..................... ..................... ..................... ..................... ..................... ..................... ..................... 80.8 85.2 89.3 93.1 100.0 105.9 110.6 115.4 111.5 110.9 .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 3.3 5.4 4.8 4.3 7.4 5.9 4.4 4.4 ¥3.4 ¥.6 78.8 83.6 88.0 92.1 100.0 106.8 112.1 117.4 112.7 111.8 69.3 75.4 81.9 89.0 100.0 110.7 119.9 129.5 123.5 122.9 91.4 94.6 96.2 96.5 100.0 101.5 102.2 102.8 99.8 99.2 93.5 92.8 92.9 92.1 100.0 106.5 109.9 112.2 105.6 102.0 94.4 96.6 96.4 98.1 100.0 98.2 94.0 96.3 96.8 93.0 92.0 93.9 97.2 100.0 100.0 102.5 105.5 108.6 108.1 111.3 81.3 83.4 83.6 82.4 83.6 83.0 82.4 82.6 77.4 75.6 80.3 82.6 82.7 81.1 82.6 82.0 81.4 81.1 75.4 73.9 2002: Oct r ........... Nov r ........... Dec r ........... 2003: Jan r ........... Feb r ........... Mar r ........... Apr r ........... May r .......... June r ......... July r .......... Aug r ........... Sept r .......... Oct p ........... 111.0 111.2 110.6 111.2 111.6 110.8 110.1 110.0 110.0 110.8 111.0 111.5 111.8 ¥0.3 .1 ¥.5 .5 .4 ¥.7 ¥.6 ¥.1 .0 .8 .2 .5 .2 1.0 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.5 .4 ¥.6 ¥.8 ¥1.5 ¥.6 ¥.4 .2 .6 111.9 111.9 111.3 112.0 112.1 111.8 111.1 111.0 111.2 111.8 111.8 112.6 112.7 123.5 124.5 123.6 124.8 124.5 123.6 122.8 122.8 123.6 124.8 124.9 126.8 126.8 98.5 97.8 97.4 97.5 97.5 97.5 97.0 96.8 96.3 96.7 96.6 96.6 96.5 102.8 101.6 100.5 103.7 106.0 107.0 106.0 106.1 107.0 105.0 105.1 104.6 106.2 91.8 93.8 94.2 93.4 93.3 93.1 93.4 92.7 93.2 93.4 93.0 94.0 93.2 113.4 112.8 112.8 112.3 116.4 110.8 109.4 110.2 107.9 111.3 113.3 111.0 113.2 75.4 75.4 74.9 75.2 75.4 74.8 74.2 74.1 74.0 74.5 74.6 74.9 75.0 73.7 73.6 73.1 73.6 73.5 73.3 72.7 72.6 72.7 73.0 73.0 73.5 73.5 1 Total industry and total manufacturing series include manufacturing as defined in the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) plus those industries—logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory-publishing—that have traditionally been included in manufacturing. 2 Percent changes based on unrounded indexes. Note.—Data based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) except series as defined in footnote 1. Data revised to reflect annual revisions. See Federal Reserve release G.17 (419) Annual Revision, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, released November 10, 2003, for details on the revisions. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1997=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Products and nonindustrial supplies Final products Consumer goods Equipment Durable goods Business equipment Period Total Total 1993 r 1994 r 1995 r 1996 r 1997 r 1998 r 1999 r 2000 r 2001 r 2002 r Materials Nonindustrial supplies Nondurable goods Total 1 Defense and space equipment Total Construction supplies Business supplies Total 1 Energy .......................................................... .......................................................... .......................................................... .......................................................... .......................................................... .......................................................... .......................................................... .......................................................... .......................................................... .......................................................... 83.2 86.8 90.4 93.9 100.0 105.7 108.3 111.6 109.1 107.6 87.4 91.6 94.5 96.5 100.0 103.6 105.3 107.5 105.9 106.8 76.6 85.4 89.7 93.5 100.0 107.0 113.5 117.5 110.4 115.7 91.9 94.2 96.5 97.8 100.0 102.2 102.1 103.7 104.0 103.4 75.3 78.0 82.8 88.9 100.0 110.0 114.2 119.7 115.1 108.1 69.7 73.5 79.4 86.9 100.0 111.2 117.1 125.5 117.6 109.5 115.6 108.9 106.0 102.0 100.0 104.1 101.4 91.0 102.6 105.7 83.0 87.0 90.3 93.8 100.0 105.7 109.9 114.4 109.8 108.6 83.4 89.5 91.4 95.5 100.0 105.2 107.9 110.3 105.2 103.1 82.9 86.2 89.9 93.2 100.0 105.9 110.7 116.0 111.6 110.7 77.9 83.0 87.9 92.2 100.0 106.2 113.1 119.8 114.6 115.1 95.5 97.0 98.5 100.0 100.0 100.2 100.2 101.6 100.4 100.5 2002: Oct r ................................................. Nov r ................................................ Dec r ................................................. 107.5 107.5 106.9 106.7 106.6 105.6 115.9 118.8 116.8 103.2 102.1 101.5 107.9 108.3 108.4 108.8 109.6 109.2 107.9 107.1 109.7 109.3 108.7 108.4 103.2 102.8 102.1 111.7 111.0 110.9 115.3 115.9 115.3 99.8 100.9 101.0 2003: Jan r ................................................. Feb r ................................................. Mar r ................................................ Apr r ................................................. May r ................................................ June r ............................................... July r ................................................ Aug r ................................................ Sept r ................................................ Oct p ................................................. 107.7 108.2 107.6 106.5 106.7 106.5 107.1 107.3 107.8 107.4 106.6 107.0 106.3 105.3 105.5 105.0 105.8 105.9 106.2 105.8 119.4 117.2 116.4 115.5 115.3 116.2 118.2 117.3 120.6 119.1 101.9 103.2 102.6 101.4 101.8 100.9 101.3 101.7 101.1 101.1 108.9 109.7 109.1 108.0 108.3 108.5 108.9 109.5 110.2 109.9 109.8 110.6 110.0 108.7 108.6 109.0 109.3 110.0 110.8 110.2 110.3 111.0 111.0 110.3 111.8 111.8 112.1 112.8 113.3 113.8 109.2 109.5 108.8 108.1 108.1 107.8 108.7 109.0 108.8 109.9 102.7 101.9 101.2 100.6 100.8 100.8 101.5 101.9 102.2 103.2 111.8 112.6 111.9 111.1 111.0 110.6 111.5 111.8 111.5 112.6 115.5 115.8 114.7 114.5 114.1 114.4 115.4 115.5 116.5 116.9 100.6 101.7 99.8 100.2 99.6 99.6 100.9 101.0 101.1 101.1 1 Includes other items, not shown separately. [1997=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Durable manufactures Primary metal Period Total 1993 r 1994 r 1995 r 1996 r 1997 r 1998 r 1999 r 2000 r 2001 r 2002 r Iron and steel products Nondurable manufactures Computer and electronic products Fabricated metal products Machinery Total Selected hightechnology 1 Transportation equipment Total Motor vehicles and parts Apparel Printing and support Chemical Food .......................................................... .......................................................... .......................................................... .......................................................... .......................................................... .......................................................... .......................................................... .......................................................... .......................................................... .......................................................... 86.2 92.6 93.7 95.9 100.0 102.3 101.7 98.5 89.0 86.5 86.5 93.3 94.8 97.1 100.0 100.3 99.9 99.0 87.7 89.5 80.0 87.0 92.3 95.8 100.0 103.0 103.8 107.9 100.1 97.4 78.1 85.5 91.5 94.9 100.0 102.6 100.4 105.8 93.8 86.8 37.1 44.2 57.5 73.8 100.0 129.1 169.0 224.0 226.1 234.7 25.6 33.2 47.3 66.7 100.0 140.2 201.3 286.7 291.1 311.4 85.9 89.9 90.1 91.7 100.0 108.8 114.5 109.5 105.9 108.0 77.8 89.4 92.0 92.7 100.0 105.2 116.4 116.2 105.6 114.5 102.0 104.1 104.1 101.3 100.0 94.6 90.7 87.3 77.9 70.8 94.9 95.9 97.3 98.0 100.0 101.0 101.9 102.3 96.9 93.7 89.0 91.3 92.7 94.6 100.0 101.8 103.8 105.5 103.9 105.3 96.3 96.8 99.3 97.4 100.0 104.3 105.2 106.8 106.9 107.1 2002: Oct r ................................................. Nov r ................................................ Dec r ................................................. 87.9 88.8 84.3 93.9 96.7 86.4 97.7 96.5 96.6 86.1 86.5 85.6 242.4 246.5 248.9 325.8 332.5 334.7 107.7 109.6 107.0 115.1 118.9 114.6 70.2 71.1 69.2 92.6 92.7 93.0 104.7 104.3 104.0 106.8 105.9 106.3 2003: Jan r ................................................. Feb r ................................................. Mar r ................................................ Apr r ................................................. May r ................................................ June r ............................................... July r ................................................ Aug r ................................................ Sept r ................................................ Oct p ................................................. 88.3 88.0 83.5 83.8 82.2 82.7 82.9 82.5 83.9 87.3 97.2 93.1 84.4 91.2 83.8 87.3 87.2 84.5 88.4 96.7 96.2 95.7 95.0 94.0 93.2 93.3 94.2 93.2 94.1 94.5 85.2 86.5 86.3 85.4 86.2 86.3 85.9 86.5 87.1 86.3 251.1 253.6 254.6 254.6 258.0 260.5 266.7 272.4 274.2 279.9 335.7 344.0 345.9 348.3 352.9 359.6 369.1 380.1 383.2 392.7 109.6 107.6 106.7 105.6 105.2 106.3 107.9 107.2 111.7 108.9 118.7 116.0 114.4 113.0 112.0 113.8 116.6 115.0 122.5 117.9 67.6 66.2 65.2 63.4 63.6 61.8 60.9 59.1 59.1 60.3 92.7 92.3 90.3 90.3 88.8 88.8 89.0 88.7 89.5 89.8 104.5 105.3 105.0 105.6 104.4 103.5 104.5 105.6 106.3 105.9 106.5 106.2 106.5 106.1 106.1 106.4 106.5 105.5 105.6 104.6 1 Computers and office equipment, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 18 Note.—See Note, p. 17. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. NEW CONSTRUCTION [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Private Period 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2002: Total new construction expenditures Residential Total Total 1 Federal and State and local Nonresidential New housing Total Lodging Commercial (including farm) Office Manufacturing Other 2 .................................... .................................... .................................... .................................... .................................... .................................... .................................... .................................... .................................... .................................... Oct ........................... Nov .......................... Dec .......................... 491.0 539.2 557.8 615.9 653.4 705.7 766.1 828.8 852.6 860.9 861.9 870.0 872.1 375.1 419.0 427.9 476.6 502.7 551.4 596.3 642.6 652.5 650.5 651.1 656.4 658.2 225.1 258.6 247.4 281.1 289.0 314.6 350.6 374.5 388.3 421.5 429.9 434.4 441.5 150.9 176.4 171.4 191.1 198.1 224.0 251.3 265.0 279.4 298.5 305.7 310.0 315.6 150.0 160.4 180.5 195.5 213.7 236.8 245.8 268.2 264.2 229.0 221.2 222.0 216.8 4.6 4.7 7.1 10.9 12.9 14.8 16.0 16.3 14.5 10.3 9.7 9.0 8.9 20.0 20.4 23.0 26.5 32.8 40.4 45.1 52.4 49.7 35.1 33.5 33.2 32.1 34.4 39.6 44.1 49.4 53.1 55.7 59.4 64.1 63.6 58.2 57.4 56.9 52.3 23.4 28.8 35.4 38.1 37.6 40.5 32.6 31.8 29.5 16.6 14.6 14.6 13.9 67.7 66.9 70.9 70.6 77.3 85.4 92.8 103.6 106.8 108.7 106.1 108.2 109.6 116.0 120.2 129.9 139.3 150.7 154.3 169.7 186.1 200.1 210.4 210.8 213.6 213.8 2003: Jan .......................... Feb .......................... Mar .......................... Apr .......................... May ......................... June ......................... July ......................... Aug r ......................... Sept r ........................ Oct p ......................... 883.2 876.5 875.2 871.9 871.9 878.8 892.6 901.4 913.5 922.0 667.6 665.1 668.8 662.8 660.9 661.5 674.3 681.2 691.5 697.4 450.0 448.5 447.1 443.9 444.9 444.4 457.1 466.8 473.6 484.1 323.6 322.8 321.7 320.3 324.2 326.3 333.4 342.1 348.8 356.9 217.6 216.5 221.6 218.9 216.1 217.1 217.2 214.4 217.9 213.3 9.2 9.3 10.1 10.4 10.8 10.3 9.2 9.5 10.0 9.9 30.8 29.7 29.7 29.3 28.6 29.3 28.5 29.1 29.2 29.4 56.8 54.8 55.6 54.7 55.3 56.9 58.2 58.4 57.0 55.6 14.0 13.6 14.0 13.9 14.2 14.5 13.6 14.1 14.7 13.7 106.7 109.2 112.2 110.6 107.2 106.0 107.6 103.4 106.9 104.6 215.6 211.4 206.5 209.1 210.9 217.2 218.3 220.2 222.0 224.7 1 Includes residential improvements, not shown separately. 2 Includes health care, educational, communication, and power, among other categories not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or houses, except as noted] New private housing units Units started, by type of structure Period Total 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 ...................................... ...................................... ...................................... ...................................... ...................................... ...................................... ...................................... ...................................... ...................................... ...................................... New private houses 1,287.6 1,457.0 1,354.1 1,476.8 1,474.0 1,616.9 1,640.9 1,568.7 1,602.7 1,704.9 1 unit 1,125.7 1,198.4 1,076.2 1,160.9 1,133.7 1,271.4 1,302.4 1,230.9 1,273.3 1,358.6 2–4 units 1 5 units or more 29.4 35.2 33.8 45.3 44.5 42.6 31.9 38.7 36.6 38.5 132.6 223.5 244.1 270.8 295.8 302.9 306.6 299.1 292.8 307.9 Units authorized 1,199.1 1,371.6 1,332.5 1,425.6 1,441.1 1,612.3 1,663.5 1,592.3 1,636.7 1,747.7 Units completed Houses sold Houses for sale at end of period 2 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 3 1,192.7 1,346.9 1,312.6 1,412.9 1,400.5 1,474.2 1,604.9 1,573.7 1,570.8 1,648.4 666 670 667 757 804 886 880 877 908 973 293 336 370 322 281 294 308 298 308 339 3 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.0 8.4 9.0 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 2002: Oct ............................. Nov ............................ Dec ............................ 1,653 1,760 1,815 1,366 1,403 1,462 33 34 35 254 323 318 1,813 1,764 1,907 1,591 1,706 1,674 1,005 1,022 1,052 336 338 339 ...................... ...................... 9.3 2003: Jan ............................ Feb ............................ Mar ............................ Apr ............................ May ........................... June ........................... July ........................... Aug r ........................... Sept r .......................... Oct p ........................... 1,828 1,640 1,742 1,627 1,745 1,844 1,890 1,831 1,905 1,960 1,509 1,312 1,393 1,357 1,389 1,499 1,533 1,490 1,530 1,617 41 30 36 31 27 28 36 32 46 24 278 298 313 239 329 317 321 309 329 319 1,777 1,786 1,688 1,724 1,803 1,823 1,800 1,901 1,875 1,981 1,647 1,672 1,621 1,680 1,742 1,663 1,678 1,573 1,715 1,727 1,009 935 1,008 1,004 1,081 1,200 r1,145 1,167 1,145 1,105 343 343 341 341 344 343 r341 344 345 360 ...................... ...................... 9.4 ...................... ...................... 9.6 ...................... ...................... 9.9 ...................... 1 Derived; seasonally adjusted monthly data for 2–4 housing units started are no longer published. 2 Seasonally adjusted. 3 Revised series beginning 1994; data for 1993 reflect the revision. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. NOTE.—Beginning 1994, units authorized are for 19,000 places. For other data shown, units authorized are for 17,000 places. Beginning 1999, housing starts, completions, and sales are not directly comparable with earlier data due to new estimation methods. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade In September, according to current estimates, manufacturing and trade sales rose 0.7 percent and inventories rose $4.2 billion. According to advance estimates, retail sales fell 0.5 percent in October. Retail and food services sales fell 0.3 percent. [Millions of dollars, except ratios; seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Manufacturing and trade 1 Period Sales 2 1993 ................................................................. 1994 ................................................................. 1995 ................................................................. 1996 ................................................................. 1997 ................................................................. 1998 ................................................................. 1999 ................................................................. 2000 ................................................................. 2001 ................................................................. 2002 ................................................................. 2002: Sept r .................................................... Oct r ...................................................... Nov ...................................................... Dec ...................................................... 568,073 610,669 655,227 687,472 724,126 743,716 787,656 835,239 819,373 824,013 828,278 834,135 835,360 834,194 Inventories 3 868,067 931,353 989,989 1,009,196 1,050,132 1,082,701 1,143,124 1,201,677 1,145,363 1,169,352 1,159,217 1,160,224 1,163,611 1,169,352 Inventorysales ratio 4 1.50 1.47 1.48 1.46 1.42 1.44 1.41 1.41 1.44 1.40 1.40 1.39 1.39 1.40 Wholesale Sales 2 Inventories 3 150,833 161,133 176,227 186,649 194,541 198,319 211,797 228,549 225,722 229,250 231,752 232,465 235,263 233,732 201,939 218,856 235,128 237,828 255,427 268,385 285,167 302,495 287,556 288,847 287,186 285,719 286,419 288,847 Retail Inventory sales ratio 4 1.31 1.30 1.30 1.28 1.27 1.32 1.31 1.30 1.32 1.25 1.24 1.23 1.22 1.24 2003: Jan ...................................................... 844,999 1,172,045 1.39 236,978 288,705 1.22 Feb ...................................................... 837,850 1,179,647 1.41 238,193 289,680 1.22 Mar ...................................................... 851,680 1,183,281 1.39 240,547 290,938 1.21 Apr ...................................................... 836,843 1,183,557 1.41 234,634 290,092 1.24 May ...................................................... 838,547 1,179,925 1.41 234,049 288,962 1.23 June ..................................................... 849,696 1,180,343 1.39 237,735 288,919 1.22 July ..................................................... 863,732 1,178,142 1.36 238,919 289,061 1.21 Aug r ..................................................... 861,312 1,173,573 1.36 239,515 288,717 1.21 p .................................................... r867,699 Sept 1,177,742 1.36 240,739 289,777 1.20 p ..................................................... ................ .................. ................ ................ ................ ................ Oct 1 See page 21 for manufacturing. data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. 3 Seasonally adjusted, end of period. 2 Annual 20 4 Annual Sales 2 Inventories 3 165,533 179,693 189,028 201,058 210,027 220,413 239,869 255,974 262,776 270,451 270,361 272,321 273,570 277,100 286,026 312,162 329,644 340,552 350,901 365,085 394,311 417,786 405,571 436,317 428,436 430,960 434,693 436,317 Inventory sales ratio 4 Retail and food services sales 2 1.68 1.66 1.72 1.67 1.64 1.62 1.59 1.59 1.58 1.56 1.58 1.58 1.59 1.57 183,537 198,496 208,496 221,299 231,530 243,133 263,696 281,497 289,300 298,334 298,239 300,048 301,707 305,816 278,356 439,120 1.58 274,066 443,879 1.62 280,369 447,163 1.59 279,601 448,258 1.60 280,578 446,914 1.59 283,318 448,758 1.58 287,565 448,314 1.56 290,121 445,224 1.53 r289,362 449,671 1.55 287,835 ................ ................ 307,045 302,741 309,567 308,675 310,214 313,142 317,512 320,703 r319,438 318,490 data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In October, manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and new and unfilled orders rose. Manufacturers’ shipments 1 Manufacturers’ inventories 2 Manufacturers’ new orders 1 Durable goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, nondefense Manufacturers’ unfilled orders 2 Manufacturers’ inventory— shipments ratio 3 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2002: .................................................... .................................................... .................................................... .................................................... .................................................... .................................................... .................................................... .................................................... .................................................... .................................................... Oct ........................................... Nov .......................................... Dec ........................................... 2003: Jan ........................................... Feb ........................................... Mar .......................................... Apr ........................................... May .......................................... June ......................................... July .......................................... Aug .......................................... Sept r ........................................ Oct p .......................................... 251,708 269,843 289,973 299,766 319,558 324,984 335,991 350,715 330,875 324,313 329,349 326,527 323,362 329,665 325,591 330,764 322,608 323,920 328,643 337,248 331,676 337,598 339,857 133,712 147,005 158,568 164,883 178,949 185,966 193,895 197,807 181,201 177,617 179,936 177,483 172,894 177,331 173,992 175,475 173,512 173,783 176,782 181,761 177,187 182,379 183,541 117,996 122,838 131,405 134,883 140,610 139,019 142,096 152,908 149,674 146,696 149,413 149,044 150,468 152,334 151,599 155,289 149,096 150,137 151,861 155,487 154,489 155,219 156,316 380,102 400,335 425,217 430,816 443,804 449,231 463,646 481,396 452,236 444,188 443,545 442,499 444,188 444,220 446,088 445,180 445,207 444,049 442,666 440,767 439,632 438,294 438,483 1 Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. Shipments are the same as sales. 2 Seasonally adjusted, end of period. 3 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. 239,040 253,444 267,696 272,787 281,249 290,874 296,645 306,682 283,722 271,789 270,836 269,774 271,789 270,964 270,765 269,454 269,285 268,449 266,154 264,638 262,949 261,678 262,280 141,062 146,891 157,521 158,029 162,555 158,357 167,001 174,714 168,514 172,399 172,709 172,725 172,399 173,256 175,323 175,726 175,922 175,600 176,512 176,129 176,683 176,616 176,203 246,668 266,641 285,542 297,282 314,986 317,345 329,770 346,789 322,944 316,744 320,000 317,869 316,944 322,157 320,664 325,614 317,095 318,144 324,098 330,551 329,401 333,957 341,216 128,672 143,803 154,137 162,399 174,377 178,327 187,674 193,881 173,270 170,048 170,587 168,825 166,476 169,823 169,065 170,325 167,999 168,007 172,237 175,064 174,912 178,738 184,900 40,681 45,175 51,011 54,066 60,697 62,133 64,392 69,278 58,336 53,991 54,829 54,439 53,807 55,261 53,417 54,838 55,845 55,367 57,351 58,188 57,229 60,225 61,952 425,665 434,594 447,338 488,815 513,166 496,471 505,941 550,005 517,590 485,816 490,267 487,009 485,816 483,871 484,649 485,178 485,534 485,829 487,360 485,959 490,036 492,006 499,649 1.51 1.44 1.44 1.43 1.37 1.39 1.35 1.35 1.42 1.37 1.35 1.36 1.37 1.35 1.37 1.35 1.38 1.37 1.35 1.31 1.33 1.30 1.29 NOTE.—Manufacturers’ nondurable new orders (not shown) are the same as nondurable shipments. Also, there are no unfilled nondurable orders; data shown for total unfilled orders are durable unfilled orders. Total and durable shipments and inventories include data on semiconductors; new and unfilled orders do not. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES The producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.8 percent in October. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 2.2 percent, while prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0.3 percent. Capital equipment prices rose 0.6 percent. [1982=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Finished goods Period Total finished goods Finished goods excluding consumer foods Consumer foods Consumer goods Total Total 1993 ........................... 1994 ........................... 1995 ........................... 1996 ........................... 1997 ........................... 1998 ........................... 1999 .......................... 2000 ........................... 2001 ........................... 2002 .......................... 2002: Oct ................. Nov ................ Dec ................ 2003: Jan ................. Feb ................. Mar ................ Apr ................ May ............... June r ............. July ................ Aug ................. Sept ................ Oct ................. 1 Intermediate 22 124.7 125.5 127.9 131.3 131.8 130.7 133.0 138.0 140.7 138.9 140.1 139.7 139.3 141.2 142.8 144.8 142.4 141.8 142.5 142.8 143.4 143.8 144.9 Intermediate materials 125.7 126.8 129.0 133.6 134.5 134.3 135.1 137.2 141.3 140.1 138.8 139.3 139.8 142.4 142.9 143.2 144.4 144.5 145.0 144.7 145.7 147.4 150.7 124.4 125.1 127.5 130.5 130.9 129.5 132.3 138.1 140.4 138.3 140.2 139.6 139.0 140.6 142.6 144.9 141.6 140.9 141.7 142.1 142.6 142.6 143.2 materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 121.7 121.6 124.0 127.6 128.2 126.4 130.5 138.4 141.4 138.8 141.5 140.7 139.9 142.2 145.3 148.4 143.8 142.7 143.8 144.1 144.8 144.9 145.4 Durable 128.0 130.9 132.7 134.2 133.7 132.9 133.0 133.9 134.0 133.0 133.5 132.7 132.1 132.8 132.6 134.3 132.3 132.6 132.2 132.5 132.7 132.6 134.1 Nondurable 117.6 116.2 118.8 123.3 124.3 122.2 127.9 138.7 142.8 139.8 143.5 142.7 141.9 144.9 149.4 153.2 147.4 145.6 147.5 147.9 148.7 148.8 149.0 Capital equipment 131.4 134.1 136.7 138.3 138.2 137.6 137.6 138.8 139.7 139.1 139.3 139.1 138.8 139.2 139.0 139.8 139.0 139.1 139.1 139.7 139.8 139.7 140.5 Total finished consumer goods 123.0 123.3 125.6 129.5 130.2 128.9 132.0 138.2 141.5 139.4 141.0 140.5 140.1 142.5 144.8 147.2 144.2 143.4 144.4 144.5 145.3 145.8 147.2 Crude materials Total Foods and feeds 1 Other Total Foodstuffs and feedstuffs Other 116.2 118.5 124.9 125.7 125.6 123.0 123.2 129.2 129.7 127.8 129.8 129.7 129.6 131.2 133.8 136.6 133.4 132.5 133.2 133.3 134.0 133.8 134.3 112.7 114.8 114.8 128.1 125.4 116.2 111.1 111.7 115.9 115.5 117.2 117.8 119.0 120.8 121.7 121.3 121.4 122.7 124.9 124.4 124.6 127.5 131.5 116.4 118.7 125.5 125.6 125.7 123.4 123.9 130.1 130.5 128.5 130.5 130.4 130.2 131.8 134.4 137.4 134.1 133.0 133.7 133.8 134.6 134.2 134.6 102.4 101.8 102.7 113.8 111.1 96.8 98.2 120.6 121.0 108.1 112.6 116.8 119.1 128.2 134.9 152.4 128.3 130.1 135.8 132.1 130.3 134.7 138.2 108.4 106.5 105.8 121.5 112.2 103.9 98.7 100.2 106.1 99.5 99.6 100.7 102.0 107.4 108.2 106.3 107.6 109.7 109.3 105.6 109.5 117.2 127.6 94.7 94.8 96.8 104.5 106.4 88.4 94.3 130.4 126.8 111.4 119.1 125.8 128.7 140.6 151.8 184.4 140.5 142.0 152.5 148.9 142.6 144.2 142.0 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In October, the consumer price index for all urban consumers was unchanged seasonally adjusted; it fell 0.1 percent not seasonally adjusted. The index was 2.0 percent above its year-earlier level. [1982–84=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] All items 1 Housing Transportation Shelter Period Not season- Seasonally ally adjust- adjusted ed (NSA) Food Total 1 Rent of primary residence Total 1 Owners’ equivalent rent (12/82= 100) Fuels and utilities Apparel Total 1 New cars Motor fuel Medical care Energy 2 All items less food and energy Rel. imp.3 ......................... 1993 ................................. 1994 ................................. 1995 ................................. 1996 ................................. 1997 ................................. 1998 ................................. 1999 ................................. 2000 ................................. 2001 ................................. 2002 ................................. 100.0 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.2 177.1 179.9 ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. 14.6 140.9 144.3 148.4 153.3 157.3 160.7 164.1 167.8 173.1 176.2 40.9 141.2 144.8 148.5 152.8 156.8 160.4 163.9 169.6 176.4 180.3 31.7 155.7 160.5 165.7 171.0 176.3 182.1 187.3 193.4 200.6 208.1 6.5 150.3 154.0 157.8 162.0 166.7 172.1 177.5 183.9 192.1 199.7 22.2 160.5 165.8 171.3 176.8 181.9 187.8 192.9 198.7 206.3 214.7 4.5 121.3 122.8 123.7 127.5 130.8 128.5 128.8 137.9 150.2 143.6 4.2 133.7 133.4 132.0 131.7 132.9 133.0 131.3 129.6 127.3 124.0 17.3 ............ 130.4 131.5 134.3 136.0 139.1 139.0 143.0 141.4 144.3 141.7 141.6 140.7 144.4 139.6 153.3 139.6 154.3 138.9 152.9 137.3 3.1 98.0 98.5 100.0 106.3 106.2 92.2 100.7 129.3 124.7 116.6 6.0 201.4 211.0 220.5 228.2 234.6 242.1 250.6 260.8 272.8 285.6 6.7 104.2 104.6 105.2 110.1 111.5 102.9 106.6 124.6 129.3 121.7 78.7 152.2 156.5 161.2 165.6 169.5 173.4 177.0 181.3 186.1 190.5 2002: Oct ....................... Nov ...................... Dec ...................... 181.3 181.3 180.9 181.2 181.4 181.6 176.6 177.0 177.3 181.6 181.8 182.2 209.9 210.3 210.8 201.3 201.9 202.3 216.8 217.1 217.7 144.6 144.7 145.3 123.5 123.2 122.9 155.2 154.9 154.5 137.4 137.3 136.8 125.0 123.8 122.1 289.7 291.2 292.3 126.2 125.6 125.1 191.6 191.8 192.1 2003: Jan ...................... Feb ....................... Mar ...................... Apr ....................... May ..................... June ..................... July ...................... Aug ....................... Sept ...................... Oct ....................... 181.7 183.1 184.2 183.8 183.5 183.7 183.9 184.6 185.2 185.0 182.2 183.3 183.9 183.3 183.3 183.6 183.9 184.5 185.0 185.0 177.0 178.2 178.5 178.3 178.9 179.7 179.8 180.4 180.8 181.8 182.9 183.4 184.1 184.0 184.7 184.8 185.1 185.3 185.4 185.9 211.4 211.5 211.4 211.6 212.8 212.7 213.3 213.7 214.0 214.9 203.1 203.5 203.9 204.5 205.1 205.4 205.8 206.3 206.8 206.9 218.3 218.7 218.9 218.9 219.3 219.3 219.9 220.4 220.7 221.4 147.4 150.3 156.9 155.4 155.7 156.4 156.1 156.2 156.5 155.2 121.8 121.6 121.1 120.4 120.0 120.5 120.5 120.6 121.2 121.5 156.2 159.3 160.9 158.2 156.2 156.6 156.9 158.6 160.0 157.5 135.7 135.4 135.6 135.0 134.8 134.5 134.2 134.8 134.3 134.2 130.2 143.0 148.7 136.5 127.3 128.9 130.8 138.6 147.2 137.2 292.6 293.0 293.5 294.1 295.2 296.1 297.5 298.1 299.5 300.5 130.1 137.8 144.2 137.5 133.3 134.4 135.0 138.7 142.9 137.3 192.3 192.5 192.5 192.5 193.0 193.0 193.4 193.6 193.7 194.1 1 Includes items not shown separately. fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc. excluded beginning 1983. 2 Household 3 Relative importance, December 2002. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Change from preceding period Period Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate Consumer goods Consumer goods Total finished goods Excluding foods Foods Capital equipment Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Consumer goods Total finished goods Foods Excluding foods Capital equipment Total finished goods Foods Excluding foods Capital equipment 1.8 2.0 2.2 .4 ¥.6 0 .3 1.2 0 ¥.6 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. 0.2 ¥.1 ¥.2 .3 ¥.1 .6 ¥.6 .1 0 .4 .1 ¥.1 .6 4.4 3.2 .9 3.2 9.2 16.8 3.4 ¥2.8 ¥6.2 1.1 4.6 r 3.7 6.0 ¥1.7 1.4 4.7 10.8 10.7 10.1 5.7 4.6 5.1 .8 3.4 6.8 17.6 8.6 5.0 .3 2.0 13.7 26.6 4.6 ¥7.0 ¥11.8 .8 6.0 r 3.1 3.7 1.4 1.5 ¥.6 ¥.3 ¥.3 2.9 ¥.6 .3 ¥2.0 2.0 2.0 r 1.7 2.3 1.6 1.9 1.0 3.8 6.2 8.5 3.3 3.0 4.6 2.3 .8 ¥1.4 3.5 ¥1.1 .1 .4 4.4 6.0 7.4 8.2 7.6 7.6 3.3 4.0 6.0 8.9 3.3 3.7 2.0 5.3 9.3 12.7 3.3 2.9 5.7 2.7 ¥.7 ¥4.7 2.2 Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 ..................... ..................... ..................... ..................... ..................... ..................... ..................... ..................... ..................... ..................... 0.2 1.7 2.3 2.8 ¥1.2 0 2.9 3.6 ¥1.6 1.2 ¥1.4 2.0 2.3 3.7 ¥1.5 ¥.1 5.1 5.5 ¥3.9 2.9 2.4 1.1 1.9 3.4 ¥.8 .1 .8 1.7 1.8 ¥.6 1.2 .6 1.9 2.7 .4 ¥.8 1.8 3.8 2.0 ¥1.3 Change, month to month 2002: Oct ............ Nov ........... Dec ........... 2003: Jan ........... Feb ........... Mar ........... Apr ............ May .......... June r ........ July .......... Aug ........... Sept ........... Oct ............ 0.8 ¥.3 ¥.3 1.4 1.1 1.4 ¥1.7 ¥.4 .5 r.2 .4 .3 .8 0.4 .4 .4 1.9 .4 .2 .8 .1 .3 ¥.2 .7 1.2 2.2 1.2 ¥.6 ¥.6 1.6 2.2 2.1 ¥3.1 ¥.8 .8 r.2 .5 .1 .3 0.1 0 ¥.6 .6 .6 1.2 ¥.4 0 .4 .7 1.2 ¥.1 2.2 0.7 1.0 1.2 2.5 3.3 4.0 2.4 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.5 3.4 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Housing Transportation Shelter Period All items 1 Food Total 1 Total 1 Rent of Ownpriers’ mary equivaresilent dence rent Fuels and utilities Apparel Total 1 New cars Motor fuel Medical care Energy 2 All items less food and energy Addendum: All items, percent change (annual rate) From previous quarter 3 From From 3 6 months months earlier earlier From year earlier NSA Change, December to December, NSA 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... 2.7 2.7 2.5 3.3 1.7 1.6 2.7 3.4 1.6 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.1 4.3 1.5 2.3 1.9 2.8 2.8 1.5 2.7 2.2 3.0 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.2 4.3 2.9 2.4 3.0 3.0 3.5 2.9 3.4 3.3 2.5 3.4 4.2 3.1 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.1 4.0 4.7 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.7 2.8 3.1 3.2 2.4 3.4 4.5 3.3 2.5 .2 1.4 4.6 .5 ¥2.6 2.4 12.1 ¥2.1 1.4 0.9 ¥1.6 .1 ¥.2 1.0 ¥.7 ¥.5 ¥1.8 ¥3.2 ¥1.8 2.4 3.8 1.5 4.4 ¥1.4 ¥1.7 5.4 4.1 ¥3.8 3.8 2.8 3.2 1.6 1.6 ¥1.0 ¥.1 ¥.8 .3 0 ¥2.0 ¥5.4 5.9 ¥4.0 12.7 ¥6.2 ¥15.4 30.2 13.9 ¥24.8 24.6 5.4 4.9 3.9 3.0 2.8 3.4 3.7 4.2 4.7 5.0 ¥1.4 2.2 ¥1.3 8.6 ¥3.4 ¥8.8 13.4 14.2 ¥13.0 10.7 3.2 2.6 3.0 2.6 2.2 2.4 1.9 2.6 2.7 1.9 .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... 3.0 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.3 1.6 2.2 3.4 2.8 1.6 0.3 ¥.1 ¥.4 ¥.8 ¥.2 .1 ¥.4 ¥.1 ¥.2 ¥.2 .4 ¥.4 ¥.1 2.5 ¥1.0 ¥1.4 6.6 9.8 4.0 ¥8.2 ¥6.7 1.3 1.5 6.0 6.2 ¥6.8 0.6 .5 .4 .1 .1 .2 .2 .4 .3 .5 .2 .5 .3 1.4 ¥.5 ¥.4 4.0 5.9 4.6 ¥4.6 ¥3.1 .8 .4 2.7 3.0 ¥3.9 0.1 .1 .2 .1 .1 0 0 .3 0 .2 .1 .1 .2 .......... .......... 2.0 .......... .......... 3.8 .......... .......... .7 .......... .......... 2.4 .......... 2.5 2.0 1.6 2.2 4.3 5.2 2.4 0 ¥.7 1.3 2.6 3.1 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.3 3.1 3.3 2.3 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 3.0 3.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.0 Change, month to month 2002: Oct ................ Nov ............... Dec ............... 2003: Jan ............... Feb ................ Mar ............... Apr ................ May ............... June .............. July .............. Aug ............... Sept ............... Oct ................ 1 Includes 0.2 .1 .1 .3 .6 .3 ¥.3 0 .2 .2 .3 .3 0 0.1 .2 .2 ¥.2 .7 .2 ¥.1 .3 .4 .1 .3 .2 .6 0.3 .1 .2 .4 .3 .4 ¥.1 .4 .1 .2 .1 .1 .3 0.2 .2 .2 .3 0 0 .1 .6 0 .3 .2 .1 .4 0.2 .3 .2 .4 .2 .2 .3 .3 .1 .2 .2 .2 0 0.3 .1 .3 .3 .2 .1 0 .2 0 .3 .2 .1 .3 0.3 .1 .4 1.4 2.0 4.4 ¥1.0 .2 .4 ¥.2 .1 .2 ¥.8 ¥0.2 ¥.2 ¥.2 ¥.9 ¥.2 ¥.4 ¥.6 ¥.3 .4 0 .1 .5 .2 items not shown separately. fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc., excluded beginning 1983. 2 Household 24 0.5 ¥.2 ¥.3 1.1 2.0 1.0 ¥1.7 ¥1.3 .3 .2 1.1 .9 ¥1.6 3 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS In November, prices received by farmers rose 3.5 percent while prices paid by farmers were unchanged. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) [1990–92=100; not seasonally adjusted] Prices received by farmers Period 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 All farm products Prices paid by farmers Livestock and products Crops All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates 1 Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates Production items Ratio 2 ............................... ............................... ............................... ............................... .............................. .............................. ............................... .............................. .............................. .............................. 101 100 102 112 107 101 96 96 102 98 102 105 112 127 115 107 97 96 99 105 100 95 92 99 98 97 95 97 106 90 104 106 109 115 118 115 115 120 123 124 103 106 108 115 118 114 113 118 122 121 104 106 108 115 119 113 111 116 120 119 97 94 93 98 90 89 83 80 83 79 2002: Nov .................... Dec .................... 2003: Jan .................... Feb ..................... Mar ..................... Apr ..................... May .................... June ................... July .................... Aug ..................... Sept ................... Oct ...................... Nov ..................... 97 100 100 99 99 101 106 107 105 109 110 113 117 104 107 103 103 106 111 116 117 109 113 111 111 116 89 91 96 95 93 94 97 99 101 106 110 116 118 125 125 126 127 128 128 127 128 127 127 129 130 130 123 123 125 126 126 126 125 126 125 125 127 128 128 120 121 122 123 124 124 123 123 123 123 125 r 126 126 78 80 79 78 77 79 83 84 83 86 85 87 90 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910–14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1990–92=100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK AND DEBT MEASURES In October, M2 and M3 fell. [Averages of daily figures, except debt end-of-period basis; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] M1 Period Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers’ checks, and other checkable deposits (OCDs) M2 M3 Debt M1 plus retail MMMF balances, savings deposits (including MMDAs), and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, RPs, Eurodollars, and institutional MMMF balances Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors1 Percent change From year or 6 months earlier2 M1 M2 M3 From previous period3 Debt Dec ........................................................ Dec ........................................................ Dec ........................................................ Dec ........................................................ Dec ........................................................ Dec r ...................................................... Dec r ...................................................... Dec r ...................................................... Dec r ...................................................... Dec r ...................................................... 1,129.3 1,149.9 1,126.7 1,078.4 1,071.4 1,094.8 1,121.5 1,084.7 1,172.9 1,210.4 r 3,483.3 3,496.2 r 3,640.0 r 3,815.3 r 4,031.5 4,384.4 4,650.2 4,932.1 5,445.1 5,792.9 4,277.6 4,360.0 4,625.2 4,972.0 5,446.5 6,036.6 6,535.4 7,100.5 8,006.2 8,525.8 12,413.1 12,992.9 13,862.6 14,412.3 15,198.9 16,240.8 17,306.5 18,171.0 19,286.0 20,655.2 10.3 1.8 ¥2.0 ¥4.3 ¥.6 2.2 2.4 ¥3.3 8.1 3.2 1.5 .4 4.1 4.8 5.7 8.8 6.1 6.1 10.4 6.4 1.5 1.9 6.1 7.5 9.5 10.8 8.3 8.6 12.8 6.5 4.8 4.6 5.3 5.3 5.5 6.9 6.3 4.9 6.1 7.1 2002: Oct r ....................................................... Nov r ...................................................... Dec r ...................................................... 1,202.6 1,202.2 1,210.4 5,737.0 5,777.3 5,792.9 8,346.9 8,470.0 8,525.8 ...................... ...................... 20,655.2 5.1 3.2 3.6 8.8 7.9 7.3 6.5 7.8 8.4 ............ ............ 7.6 2003: Jan r ...................................................... Feb r ...................................................... Mar r ...................................................... Apr r ...................................................... May r ...................................................... June r ..................................................... July r ...................................................... Aug r ...................................................... Sept r ..................................................... Oct ........................................................ 1,212.8 1,233.4 1,236.7 1,236.9 1,257.8 1,271.9 1,277.8 1,285.7 1,288.0 1,286.9 5,821.8 5,875.0 5,887.1 5,910.0 5,998.7 6,047.5 6,099.5 6,143.6 6,122.4 6,091.9 8,526.0 8,572.9 8,599.3 8,617.6 8,711.7 8,780.2 8,915.0 8,950.8 8,943.0 8,882.3 ...................... ...................... 20,966.0 ...................... ...................... 21,597.0 ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... 2.9 8.3 7.6 5.7 9.2 10.2 10.7 8.5 8.3 8.1 6.6 7.1 6.6 6.0 7.7 8.8 9.5 9.1 8.0 6.2 7.3 6.7 6.3 6.5 5.7 6.0 9.1 8.8 8.0 6.1 ............ ............ 6.0 ............ ............ 12.0 ............ ............ ............ ............ 1993: 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: 1 Quarterly data; shown in last month of quarter. End-of-year data are for fourth quarter. Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a simple annual rate. 26 3 Annual changes are from fourth quarter to fourth quarter. Quarterly changes are from previous quarter at an annual rate. NOTE.—See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period Currency Nonbank travelers checks Demand deposits Savings deposits, including money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) Other checkable deposits (OCDs) Small denomination time deposits 1 Money market mutual fund balances Large denomination time deposits 1 Institutional Retail Dec ........................................... Dec ........................................... Dec ........................................... Dec ........................................... Dec ........................................... Dec ........................................... Dec ........................................... Dec ........................................... Dec ........................................... Dec r .......................................... 321.6 354.0 372.1 394.1 424.6 459.9 517.7 531.5 581.9 627.3 7.5 8.0 8.5 8.3 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.0 7.8 7.5 385.5 383.6 389.3 400.3 393.1 377.1 r 352.2 306.9 326.1 297.0 414.8 404.2 356.8 275.7 245.7 249.5 243.4 238.2 257.2 278.6 1,219.3 1,149.8 1,134.1 1,274.0 1,400.6 1,605.2 1,740.8 1,877.2 2,307.0 2,762.8 782.0 816.3 931.4 946.9 968.0 951.6 954.1 1,044.3 973.3 893.2 r 352.6 r 217.0 r 380.1 r 211.3 r 447.7 r 264.6 r 516.2 r 322.9 r 591.5 r 395.8 r 732.7 r 539.3 2002: Oct r ........................................... Nov r .......................................... Dec r .......................................... 620.9 623.6 627.3 7.7 7.5 7.5 299.7 294.5 297.0 274.4 276.6 278.6 2,699.6 2,743.6 2,762.8 902.2 898.1 893.2 2003: Jan r .......................................... Feb r .......................................... Mar r .......................................... Apr r .......................................... May r .......................................... June r ......................................... July r ......................................... Aug r .......................................... Sept r ......................................... Oct ............................................ 631.0 636.2 640.3 643.2 645.8 646.5 646.2 649.2 653.0 658.2 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.9 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.6 295.6 305.9 304.1 304.0 315.0 322.2 322.5 322.4 317.3 313.6 278.6 283.7 284.8 282.3 289.6 295.3 300.9 306.2 310.0 307.4 2,807.4 2,851.6 2,871.4 2,914.1 2,981.8 3,029.7 3,096.6 3,148.1 3,142.1 3,147.5 888.3 882.1 877.3 871.7 863.6 854.9 843.0 832.0 823.9 817.0 1993: 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: 1 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. Overnight and term Overnight repurand term chase Euroagreedollars ments (net) (RPs) (net) r 926.0 r 789.4 r 992.0 r 1,191.7 926.5 1,236.8 331.8 369.8 428.1 508.7 617.7 669.4 744.1 r 821.2 r 785.8 793.6 932.5 933.4 926.5 1,145.8 1,211.4 1,236.8 818.8 811.6 793.6 423.4 443.4 474.6 221.8 226.4 227.9 913.3 907.8 901.7 887.4 895.4 890.9 882.0 877.7 868.2 840.4 1,201.0 1,181.2 1,168.5 1,146.8 1,127.9 1,147.6 1,188.4 1,170.4 1,179.6 1,149.1 802.9 800.5 805.1 804.8 808.1 805.7 865.7 871.0 876.4 865.8 466.3 480.9 499.4 509.3 517.5 520.2 496.2 494.3 498.5 505.9 234.0 235.2 239.3 246.6 259.5 259.1 265.2 271.5 266.1 269.7 r 833.9 634.8 172.6 196.4 198.5 210.5 254.0 293.4 335.7 363.5 375.0 474.6 72.8 86.3 94.0 114.7 147.5 150.2 170.5 194.3 208.6 227.9 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE [Averages of daily figures 1; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements Reserves of depository institutions Period Total 2 1993: 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal Reserve (NSA) Nonborrowed 3 Required Monetary base Excess (NSA) Total Primary Secondary Seasonal Adjustment .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. 60,460 59,369 56,430 50,149 46,848 45,141 41,809 38,537 41,243 40,217 60,378 59,160 56,173 49,994 46,523 45,024 41,488 38,327 41,177 40,138 59,390 58,209 55,140 48,733 45,163 43,627 40,512 37,110 39,595 38,208 1,070 1,159 1,290 1,416 1,685 1,514 1,297 1,427 1,649 2,009 386,462 418,194 434,400 451,921 479,838 513,708 593,155 584,765 635,617 r 681,899 82 209 257 155 324 117 320 210 67 80 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ 31 100 40 68 79 15 67 111 33 45 51 109 217 87 245 101 179 99 34 35 2002: Oct .................................. Nov ................................. Dec .................................. 39,171 39,760 40,217 39,028 39,489 40,138 37,636 38,122 38,208 1,535 1,638 2,009 674,250 r 677,611 143 272 80 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ 120 60 45 23 211 35 2003: Jan .................................. Feb .................................. Mar ................................. Apr .................................. May ................................. June ................................ July ................................. Aug ................................. Sept r ............................... Oct .................................. 40,731 40,820 40,973 40,806 40,986 42,795 43,927 46,282 44,963 43,992 40,704 40,795 40,951 40,777 40,931 42,634 43,796 45,954 44,783 43,885 39,024 38,855 39,337 39,274 39,367 40,942 42,003 42,519 43,458 42,524 1,707 1,965 1,636 1,532 1,619 1,854 1,924 3,763 1,505 1,468 27 25 22 29 55 161 130 329 181 107 12 21 14 8 3 87 21 168 23 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 13 5 8 21 53 74 110 146 158 94 2 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ 1 Data are prorated averages of biweekly (maintenance period) averages of daily figures. Reserves and monetary base incorporate adjustments for discontinuities, or ‘‘breaks,’’ associated with changes in reserve requirements. 2 Seasonally adjusted break-adjusted required reserves plus unadjusted excess reserves. r 681,899 r 685,725 r 691,300 r 695,141 r 698,221 r 701,177 703,172 r 703,534 r 709,233 r 711,231 715,779 3 Seasonally adjusted break-adjusted total reserves less unadjusted total borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal Reserve. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK CREDIT AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS Total commercial bank loans and leases fell 1.1 percent in October; commercial and industrial loans fell 1.3 percent. [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1] Securities in bank credit Period 1993: 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: 2002: Dec ........... Dec ........... Dec ........... Dec ........... Dec ........... Dec ........... Dec ........... Dec ........... Dec ........... Dec r .......... Oct r .......... Nov r ......... Dec r .......... 2003: Jan r .......... Feb r .......... Mar r ......... Apr r .......... May r ......... June r ........ July r ......... Aug r ......... Sept r ......... Oct ........... Total bank credit 3,116.0 3,322.4 3,605.1 3,757.2 4,101.3 4,537.4 4,769.2 5,223.9 5,432.9 5,890.9 5,756.1 5,834.7 5,890.9 5,884.9 5,961.7 5,991.8 6,026.4 6,138.1 6,193.3 6,198.3 6,185.8 6,192.1 6,173.7 Total securities U.S. Treasury and agency securities 917.9 942.6 986.7 981.9 1,096.6 1,236.1 1,281.4 r 1,346.8 1,491.6 1,717.1 1,645.2 1,687.4 1,717.1 1,712.1 1,755.4 1,767.4 1,780.0 1,838.7 1,863.3 1,814.2 1,772.6 1,777.3 1,805.4 733.1 724.2 703.7 701.8 755.2 797.6 814.6 791.8 852.3 1,028.4 981.8 1,012.5 1,028.4 1,030.9 1,059.4 1,072.2 1,104.4 1,135.2 1,152.0 1,115.8 1,077.2 1,060.6 1,076.3 Loans and leases in bank credit Real estate CommerOther Total loans cial and securities and leases 2 industrial 184.8 218.4 283.0 280.1 341.4 438.5 466.8 555.0 639.3 688.7 663.3 674.9 688.7 681.2 696.0 695.2 675.6 703.6 711.3 698.4 695.3 716.7 729.2 2,198.1 2,379.9 2,618.4 2,775.3 3,004.7 3,301.3 3,487.8 3,877.0 3,941.3 4,173.8 4,110.9 4,147.3 4,173.8 4,172.8 4,206.2 4,224.4 4,246.4 4,299.3 4,330.0 4,384.1 4,413.2 4,414.8 4,368.3 1 Data are prorated averages of Wednesday values for domestically chartered commercial banks, branches and agencies of foreign banks, New York State investment companies (through September 1996), and Edge Act and agreement corporations. Data are adjusted for breaks caused by reclassifications of assets and liabilities. 28 590.3 650.3 723.8 784.6 854.1 947.7 999.4 1,088.0 1,028.5 964.7 968.0 967.0 964.7 958.1 951.8 946.1 945.2 937.0 924.2 922.9 915.0 903.8 892.2 Total 948.3 1,012.1 1,091.0 1,142.7 1,245.8 1,336.6 1,475.8 1,656.4 1,783.8 2,027.7 1,970.7 2,005.7 2,027.7 2,046.7 2,080.0 2,095.1 2,111.3 2,134.2 2,157.1 2,195.1 2,240.2 2,256.2 2,235.6 Revolving home equity 78.0 80.5 84.4 90.8 104.9 103.8 101.5 130.0 155.5 213.4 204.7 208.7 213.4 217.6 222.7 230.5 234.8 238.4 244.8 248.9 253.2 258.5 265.1 Consumer Security Other Other 870.3 931.7 1,006.5 1,052.0 1,140.9 1,232.8 1,374.4 1,526.4 1,628.3 1,814.3 1,766.1 1,797.0 1,814.3 1,829.1 1,857.3 1,864.6 1,876.5 1,895.8 1,912.3 1,946.1 1,987.0 1,997.7 1,970.5 387.6 448.3 491.5 513.2 503.0 497.3 491.2 540.1 557.4 588.1 584.7 585.5 588.1 591.9 591.8 586.9 584.6 594.5 600.4 600.9 601.4 606.7 603.1 86.5 75.9 83.3 75.4 94.6 145.8 150.4 177.2 r 145.6 188.9 183.1 185.9 188.9 171.6 177.9 190.0 187.1 206.8 208.6 211.2 203.4 198.6 205.8 185.3 193.3 228.7 259.5 307.2 373.9 r 370.8 415.3 426.0 404.5 404.4 403.2 404.5 404.6 404.8 406.2 418.2 426.9 439.8 454.0 453.2 449.4 431.5 2 Excludes Federal funds sold to, reverse repurchase agreements (RPs) with, and loans to commercial banks in the United States. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External (Net increase in liabilities) Funds raised in markets Period Total 1993 .................. 1994 .................. 1995 .................. 1996 .................. 1997 .................. 1998 .................. 1999 .................. 2000 .................. 2001 ................... 2002 ................... 2001: I ............. II ............ III .......... IV ........... 2002: I ............. II ............ III .......... IV ........... 2003: I ............. II p .......... 728.6 808.2 1,010.7 1,074.5 1,011.1 1,332.8 1,743.9 1,978.4 962.8 1,006.6 1,172.0 923.8 816.5 938.9 973.8 1,070.3 884.5 1,097.6 1,056.8 1,255.1 Internal 1 510.7 566.6 619.9 676.0 727.6 716.8 756.3 741.0 777.1 799.9 710.3 748.3 789.7 860.1 815.4 797.2 783.8 803.1 790.7 862.7 Credit market instruments Total 217.9 241.6 390.8 398.5 283.5 616.0 987.6 1,237.4 185.7 206.7 461.7 175.5 26.8 78.8 158.4 273.1 100.7 294.5 266.1 392.4 Capital expenditures 3 Total Total net funds raised Net new equity issues 55.7 81.6 168.8 135.4 214.4 192.8 266.8 261.9 187.9 18.2 218.6 254.6 50.6 227.6 36.3 104.0 ¥144.1 76.7 54.1 253.9 21.3 ¥44.9 ¥58.3 ¥47.3 ¥77.4 ¥215.5 ¥110.4 ¥118.2 ¥47.4 ¥41.9 ¥19.0 ¥57.9 ¥108.6 ¥4.2 ¥11.0 15.5 ¥141.2 ¥30.9 ¥80.1 ¥57.6 Total Securities and mortgages 34.4 126.5 227.1 182.8 291.8 408.4 377.2 380.1 235.3 60.1 237.6 312.5 159.2 231.8 47.3 88.5 ¥2.9 107.6 134.2 311.5 1 Profits before tax (book) less profit tax accruals and dividends plus consumption of fixed capital, foreign earnings retained abroad, inventory valuation adjustment, and net capital transfers. 2 Includes tax liabilities, trade debt, pension fund liabilities, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. 56.6 32.2 102.2 129.2 187.2 257.8 255.5 199.0 394.8 176.3 456.9 460.9 262.2 399.3 264.8 242.1 5.4 192.8 212.0 381.8 Loans and shortterm paper Other 2 ¥22.2 94.3 124.9 53.7 104.6 150.7 121.6 181.2 ¥159.6 ¥116.2 ¥219.3 ¥148.3 ¥103.1 ¥167.5 ¥217.5 ¥153.7 ¥8.3 ¥85.2 ¥77.8 ¥70.2 162.2 160.0 222.1 263.1 69.0 423.1 720.9 975.5 ¥2.1 188.4 243.1 ¥79.2 ¥23.8 ¥148.9 122.1 169.2 244.8 217.8 212.0 138.5 841.5 850.7 1,065.1 1,116.7 1,032.6 1,396.4 1,854.9 2,166.4 984.0 982.7 1,271.1 952.2 786.4 926.3 954.6 1,061.5 851.9 1,063.1 1,013.7 1,223.4 508.8 575.6 638.7 662.7 760.2 826.5 885.0 957.2 794.2 802.6 866.3 812.2 781.2 717.1 773.6 796.3 816.4 824.2 790.7 783.3 Increase in financial assets 332.7 275.1 426.4 454.0 272.4 569.9 969.9 1,209.2 189.8 180.1 404.8 140.0 5.2 209.2 181.0 265.2 35.4 238.9 223.0 440.1 Discrepancy (sources less uses) ¥112.8 ¥42.5 ¥54.4 ¥42.2 ¥21.5 ¥63.6 ¥111.0 ¥188.1 ¥21.2 23.8 ¥99.1 ¥28.4 30.2 12.5 19.1 8.7 32.7 34.6 43.1 31.7 3 Nonresidential fixed investment plus residential fixed investment, inventory change with inventory valuation adjustment, and access rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER CREDIT [Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Consumer credit outstanding (end of period) Period Total 1993: 1994: 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: 2002: Dec ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Oct ............................................................................... Nov ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... 2003: Jan ............................................................................... Feb ............................................................................... Mar .............................................................................. Apr r .............................................................................. May r ............................................................................. June r ............................................................................ July r ............................................................................. Aug r ............................................................................. Sept r ............................................................................. Oct p .............................................................................. Revolving 865.7 997.1 1,140.6 1,242.2 1,314.4 1,399.9 1,518.8 1,692.9 1,817.2 1,895.4 1,897.8 1,894.2 1,895.4 1,914.9 1,922.3 1,919.0 1,930.4 1,944.3 1,941.9 1,949.5 1,959.3 1,976.3 1,977.3 1 Change based on data in billions of dollar as shown here. For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month. 2 Includes automobile loans and all other loans not included in revolving credit, such as loans for mobile homes, education, boats, trailers, or vacations. These loans may be secured or unsecured. 309.9 365.6 443.1 498.9 531.0 562.5 598.0 667.4 701.3 712.0 717.1 716.1 712.0 714.9 718.8 720.6 723.0 727.4 726.0 727.1 729.1 733.1 735.3 Nonrevolving 2 555.7 631.6 697.5 743.2 783.4 837.5 920.9 1,025.5 1,115.9 1,183.4 1,180.7 1,178.1 1,183.4 1,200.0 1,203.6 1,198.5 1,207.4 1,216.9 1,216.0 1,222.4 1,230.1 1,243.2 1,241.9 Net change in consumer credit outstanding 1 Total 59.6 131.4 143.5 101.6 72.2 85.5 118.9 174.1 124.3 78.2 .4 ¥3.6 1.2 19.5 7.4 ¥3.3 11.4 13.9 ¥2.4 7.6 9.8 17.0 1.0 Revolving 31.5 55.7 77.5 55.8 32.1 31.5 35.5 69.4 33.9 10.7 ¥.5 ¥1.0 ¥4.1 2.9 3.9 1.8 2.4 4.4 ¥1.4 1.1 2.0 4.0 2.2 Nonrevolving 2 28.0 75.9 65.9 45.7 40.2 54.1 83.4 104.6 90.4 67.5 .9 ¥2.6 5.3 16.6 3.6 ¥5.1 8.9 9.5 ¥.9 6.4 7.7 13.1 ¥1.3 Note.—Effective October 7, 2003 data beginning 1977 include student loans extended by the Federal Government and by SLM Holding Corporation, the parent company of Sallie Mae. See Federal Reserve release, G. 19 Consumer Credit, for details. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates were mixed in November. [Percent per annum] U.S. Treasury security yields Constant Period 1993 ....................... 1994 ....................... 1995 ....................... 1996 ....................... 1997 ....................... 1998 ....................... 1999 ....................... 2000 ....................... 2001 ....................... 2002 ....................... 2002: Nov ............. Dec .............. 2003: Jan .............. Feb .............. Mar ............. Apr .............. May ............. June ............ July ............. Aug ............. Sept ............. Oct .............. Nov ............. Week ended: 2003: Nov 8 ....... 15 ...... 22 ...... 29 ...... Dec 6 ........ 1 Bank-discount 3-month bills (new issues) 1 3-year maturities 2 10-year 30-year Highgrade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor’s) 3 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody’s) 30 Primary credit 4 3.02 4.29 5.51 5.02 5.07 4.81 4.66 5.85 3.45 1.62 1.26 1.20 1.17 1.16 1.13 1.14 1.08 0.95 0.90 0.96 0.95 0.93 0.94 4.44 6.27 6.25 5.99 6.10 5.14 5.49 6.22 4.09 3.10 2.32 2.23 2.18 2.05 1.98 2.06 1.75 1.51 1.93 2.44 2.23 2.26 2.45 5.87 7.09 6.57 6.44 6.35 5.26 5.65 6.03 5.02 4.61 4.05 4.03 4.05 3.90 3.81 3.96 3.57 3.33 3.98 4.45 4.27 4.29 4.30 6.59 7.37 6.88 6.71 6.61 5.58 5.87 5.94 5.49 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 5.63 6.19 5.95 5.75 5.55 5.12 5.43 5.77 5.19 5.05 4.98 4.91 4.88 4.80 4.72 4.71 4.35 4.32 4.71 5.08 4.91 4.84 4.74 7.22 7.96 7.59 7.37 7.26 6.53 7.04 7.62 7.08 6.49 6.31 6.21 6.17 5.95 5.89 5.74 5.22 4.97 5.49 5.88 5.72 5.70 5.65 .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 2.49 2.51 2.35 2.47 2.58 4.41 4.36 4.18 4.25 4.36 * * * * * 4.79 4.80 4.70 4.68 4.78 5.74 5.70 5.56 5.60 5.67 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 basis. on actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 The rate for primary credit replaces the rate for adjustment credit under an amendment to the Federal Reserve Board’s Regulation A, effective January 9, 2003. 5 Average effective rate for year; rate in effect at end of month or week. 2 Yields Discount window (N.Y. F.R. Bank) 4 6 Daily Discount rate 5 3.00 3.60 5.21 5.02 5.00 4.92 4.62 5.73 3.40 1.17 0.75 0.75 Prime rate charged by banks 5 Federal funds rate 6 Newhome mortgage yields (FHFB) 7 * * * * * * * * * * * 6.00 7.15 8.83 8.27 8.44 8.35 8.00 9.23 6.91 4.67 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 3.02 4.21 5.83 5.30 5.46 5.35 4.97 6.24 3.88 1.67 1.34 1.24 1.24 1.26 1.25 1.26 1.26 1.22 1.01 1.03 1.01 1.01 1.00 7.20 7.49 7.87 7.80 7.71 7.07 7.04 7.52 7.00 6.43 6.08 6.04 6.12 5.82 5.75 5.92 5.75 5.51 5.53 5.77 5.97 5.92 .............. * * * * * 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 1.01 0.99 0.99 0.99 1.00 .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. effective rate; weighted average of rates on brokered trades. 7 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. *Series no longer published or discontinued. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Housing Finance Board, Moody’s Investors Service, and Standard & Poor’s. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices rose in November. Common stock prices 1 Common stock yields (percent) 8 New York Stock Exchange indexes 2 Period Standard & Poor’s composite index (1941– 43=10) 6 Nasdaq composite index (Feb. 5, 1971=100) 7 3,522.06 3,793.77 4,493.76 5,742.89 7,441.15 8,625.52 10,464.88 10,734.90 10,189.13 9,226.43 451.41 460.42 541.72 670.50 873.43 1,085.50 1,327.33 1,427.22 1,194.18 993.94 715.16 751.65 925.19 1,164.96 1,469.49 1,794.91 2,728.15 3,783.67 2,035.00 1,539.73 2.78 2.82 2.56 2.19 1.77 1.49 1.25 1.15 1.32 1.61 4.46 5.83 6.09 5.24 4.57 3.46 3.17 3.63 2.95 2.92 523.50 519.72 8,625.72 8,526.66 909.93 899.18 1,409.15 1,387.15 1.73 1.77 .................. 3.14 236.43 214.63 211.45 221.06 238.33 254.16 244.67 238.06 243.37 245.96 248.01 522.51 485.33 486.71 522.05 549.91 579.48 588.81 582.20 593.10 616.46 624.02 8,474.59 7,916.18 7,977.73 8,332.09 8,623.41 9,098.07 9,154.39 9,284.78 9,492.54 9,682.46 9,762.20 895.84 837.62 846.62 890.03 935.96 988.00 992.54 989.53 1,019.44 1,038.73 1,049.90 1,389.56 1,313.26 1,348.50 1,409.83 1,524.18 1,631.75 1,716.85 1,724.82 1,856.22 1,907.89 1,939.25 1.80 1.95 1.93 1.83 1.75 1.66 1.71 1.78 1.73 1.71 1.69 .................. .................. 3.57 .................. .................. 3.55 .................. .................. 3.88 .................. .................. 249.16 248.27 245.33 249.60 252.54 629.71 625.97 615.28 625.41 632.59 9,836.98 9,789.95 9,654.68 9,768.44 9,883.92 1,055.07 1,052.20 1,037.83 1,055.66 1,066.54 1,966.43 1,948.62 1,893.36 1,950.94 1,967.35 1.69 1.68 1.71 1.69 1.68 .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. Dow Jones industrial average 5 December 31, 1965=50 Composite (Dec. 31, 2002=5,000) 3 Industrial ......................... ......................... ......................... ......................... ......................... ......................... ......................... ......................... ......................... ......................... 2,638.96 2,687.02 3,078.56 3,787.20 4,827.35 5,818.26 6,546.81 6,805.89 6,397.85 5,578.89 299.99 315.25 367.34 453.98 574.52 681.57 774.78 810.63 748.26 657.37 242.49 247.29 269.41 327.33 414.60 468.69 491.60 413.60 443.59 431.10 228.90 209.06 220.30 249.77 283.82 378.12 473.73 477.65 377.30 260.85 216.42 209.73 238.45 303.89 424.48 516.35 530.86 553.13 595.61 555.27 2002: Nov ............... Dec ............... 5,104.89 5,075.76 597.75 593.15 405.03 401.39 229.41 233.38 2003: Jan ............... Feb ............... Mar ............... Apr ............... May ............... June .............. July .............. Aug ............... Sept .............. Oct ................ Nov ............... 5,055.78 4,738.56 4,724.22 4,977.45 5,269.96 5,583.42 5,567.94 5,580.87 5,748.42 5,894.39 5,989.42 587.78 553.90 558.10 583.74 613.26 649.25 648.00 651.19 670.18 678.51 689.30 394.84 367.55 366.90 395.85 425.12 441.81 445.29 451.31 464.61 477.99 497.44 Week ended: 2003: Nov 8 ......... 15 ........ 22 ........ 29 ........ Dec 6 ......... 5,982,58 5,991.67 5,947.33 6,047.77 6,141.31 688.23 689.35 684.94 696.00 703.89 500.87 501.72 490.49 496.47 500.42 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Transportation 1 Average of daily closing prices. 2 Includes all the stocks (nearly 3,000) listed on the NYSE. 3 Effective January 9, 2003, the NYSE relaunched the composite Utility 4 Finance Dividendprice ratio Earningsprice ratio 6 Includes index with changes in methodology, definitions, and based on Dec. 31, 2002=5,000. 4 Dec. 31, 1965=100. Effective April 27, 1993 the NYSE doubled the value of the utility index to facilitate trading of options and futures on the index. 5 Includes 30 stocks. 500 stocks. over 4,000 stocks. & Poor’s series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. 7 Includes 8 Standard Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones & Company, Inc., Standard & Poor’s, and Nasdaq Stock Market. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first month of fiscal 2004, there was a deficit of $69.5 billion, compared with a deficit of $54.1 billion a year earlier. [Billions of dollars] Total On-budget Off-budget Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (¥) Receipts 854.4 909.3 991.2 1,032.0 1,055.0 1,091.3 1,154.4 1,258.6 1,351.8 1,453.1 1,579.3 1,721.8 1,827.5 2,025.2 1,991.2 1,853.2 1,782.3 1,797.4 1,004.1 1,064.5 1,143.6 1,253.2 1,324.4 1,381.7 1,409.5 1,461.9 1,515.8 1,560.5 1,601.3 1,652.6 1,701.9 1,788.8 1,863.9 2,011.0 2,156.5 2,272.4 ¥149.7 ¥155.2 ¥152.5 ¥221.2 ¥269.3 ¥290.4 ¥255.1 ¥203.3 ¥164.0 ¥107.5 ¥22.0 69.2 125.6 236.4 127.3 ¥157.8 ¥374.2 ¥475.0 641.0 667.8 727.5 750.3 761.2 788.9 842.5 923.6 1,000.8 1,085.6 1,187.3 1,306.0 1,383.0 1,544.6 1,483.7 1,337.9 1,258.5 1,251.2 810.2 861.8 932.7 1,028.1 1,082.7 1,129.3 1,142.9 1,182.5 1,227.1 1,259.6 1,290.6 1,336.0 1,381.1 1,458.0 1,517.1 1,655.3 1,793.5 1,890.2 ¥169.3 ¥194.0 ¥205.2 ¥277.8 ¥321.5 ¥340.5 ¥300.4 ¥258.9 ¥226.4 ¥174.1 ¥103.3 ¥30.0 1.9 86.6 ¥33.4 ¥317.5 ¥535.1 ¥639.0 213.4 241.5 263.7 281.7 293.9 302.4 311.9 335.0 351.1 367.5 392.0 415.8 444.5 480.6 507.5 515.3 523.8 546.3 193.8 202.7 210.9 225.1 241.7 252.3 266.6 279.4 288.7 300.9 310.6 316.6 320.8 330.8 346.8 355.7 363.0 382.3 19.6 38.8 52.8 56.6 52.2 50.1 45.3 55.7 62.4 66.6 81.4 99.2 123.7 149.8 160.7 159.7 160.8 164.0 2,346.0 2,601.1 2,867.8 3,206.3 3,598.2 4,001.8 4,351.0 4,643.3 4,920.6 5,181.5 5,369.2 5,478.2 5,605.5 5,628.7 5,769.9 6,198.4 6,759.8 7,586.3 1,889.8 2,051.6 2,190.7 2,411.6 2,689.0 2,999.7 3,248.4 3,433.1 3,604.4 3,734.1 3,772.3 3,721.1 3,632.4 3,409.8 3,319.6 3,540.4 3,914.5 4,473.5 124.6 135.8 178.6 205.4 ¥54.1 ¥69.5 88.1 98.4 146.6 171.7 ¥58.5 ¥73.3 36.5 37.5 32.0 33.7 4.5 3.8 6,253.0 6,848.3 3,573.5 3,979.1 Fiscal year or period 1987 ...................................... 1988 ...................................... 1989 ...................................... 1990 ...................................... 1991 ...................................... 1992 ...................................... 1993 ...................................... 1994 ...................................... 1995 ...................................... 1996 ...................................... 1997 ...................................... 1998 ...................................... 1999 ...................................... 2000 ...................................... 2001 ...................................... 2002 ...................................... 2003 1 ..................................... 2004 (estimates) .................... First month: 2 Fiscal year 2003 ................ Fiscal year 2004 ................ 1 Data from Final Monthly Treasury Statement, October 2003, issued October 20, 2003. 2 Data from current issue Monthly Treasury Statement. NOTE.—Data for fiscal 2002 and 2004 are from Mid-Session Review of the FY 2004 Budget 32 Outlays Surplus or deficit (¥) Federal debt (end of period) Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (¥) Gross Federal Held by the public issued July 15, 2003. Other data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2004, issued February 3, 2003. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first month of fiscal 2004, receipts were $11.2 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $26.8 billion higher. [Billions of dollars] On-budget and off-budget receipts Fiscal year or period Total 1987 ............................................... 1988 ............................................... 1989 ............................................... 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... 2000 ............................................... 2001 .............................................. 2002 .............................................. 2003 1 ............................................. 2004 (estimates) ............................ First month: 3 Fiscal year 2003 ........................ Fiscal year 2004 ........................ 1 Data Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes Social insurance and retirement receipts On-budget and off-budget outlays National defense Other Total 854.4 909.3 991.2 392.6 401.2 445.7 83.9 94.5 103.3 303.3 334.3 359.4 1,032.0 1,055.0 1,091.3 1,154.4 1,258.6 1,351.8 1,453.1 1,579.3 1,721.8 1,827.5 466.9 467.8 476.0 509.7 543.1 590.2 656.4 737.5 828.6 879.5 93.5 98.1 100.3 117.5 140.4 157.0 171.8 182.3 188.7 184.7 380.0 396.0 413.7 428.3 461.5 484.5 509.4 539.4 571.8 611.8 91.5 93.1 101.4 98.9 113.7 120.1 115.4 120.2 132.7 151.5 2,025.2 1,004.5 1,991.2 994.3 1,853.2 858.3 1,782.3 793.7 1,797.4 786.7 207.3 151.1 148.0 131.8 144.1 652.9 694.0 700.8 713.0 748.6 ¥4.5 3.7 50.3 51.7 124.6 135.8 67.7 67.6 Total 74.6 1,004.1 79.3 1,064.5 82.8 1,143.6 International affairs Health Medicare Income Social security security Net interest Other 282.0 290.4 303.6 274.0 281.9 294.9 11.6 10.5 9.6 40.0 44.5 48.4 75.1 78.9 85.0 124.1 130.4 137.4 207.4 219.3 232.5 138.6 151.8 169.0 125.3 138.7 158.2 1,253.2 1,324.4 1,381.7 1,409.5 1,461.9 1,515.8 1,560.5 1,601.3 1,652.6 1,701.9 299.3 273.3 298.4 291.1 281.6 272.1 265.8 270.5 268.5 274.9 289.8 262.4 286.9 278.6 268.6 259.4 253.2 258.3 256.1 261.4 13.8 15.9 16.1 17.2 17.1 16.4 13.5 15.2 13.1 15.2 57.7 71.2 89.5 99.4 107.1 115.4 119.4 123.8 131.4 141.1 98.1 104.5 119.0 130.6 144.7 159.9 174.2 190.0 192.8 190.4 148.7 172.4 199.5 209.9 217.1 223.7 229.7 235.0 237.7 242.4 248.6 269.0 287.6 304.6 319.6 335.8 349.7 365.3 379.2 390.0 184.3 194.4 199.3 198.7 202.9 232.1 241.1 244.0 241.1 229.8 202.6 223.7 172.2 158.0 171.7 160.3 167.3 157.5 188.8 218.1 160.6 151.8 146.0 143.9 118.1 1,788.8 1,863.9 2,011.0 2,156.5 2,272.4 294.5 305.5 348.6 404.2 411.0 281.2 291.0 332.0 2 388.9 2 390.3 17.2 16.5 22.4 20.6 28.2 154.5 172.3 196.5 219.2 248.9 197.1 217.4 230.9 249.4 263.2 253.6 269.6 312.5 336.1 336.8 409.4 433.0 456.0 474.7 495.9 223.0 206.2 171.0 153.0 164.5 239.5 243.5 273.2 299.3 323.9 11.0 12.8 178.6 205.4 30.4 39.3 28.7 37.8 2.2 2.3 19.5 21.2 21.7 25.1 26.1 28.3 38.2 39.8 14.6 13.9 26.0 35.6 from Final Monthly Treasury Statement, October 2003, issued October 20, 2003. fiscal 2003 and 2004, outlays for Department of Defense, Military include a small amount classified as international affairs and not included in national defense. 3 Data from current issue Monthly Treasury Statement. 2 For Department of Defense, military NOTE.—Data for fiscal 2002 and 2004 are from Mid-Session Review of the FY 2004 Budget issued July 15, 2003. Other data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2004, issued February 3, 2003. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the third quarter of 2003, according to preliminary estimates, Federal current receipts fell $77.1 billion (annual rate), while Federal current expenditures fell $16.0 billion. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Government current receipts Federal Government current expenditures Contributions for social insurance Total Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Calendar year: 1993 .............................. 1994 .............................. 1995 .............................. 1996 .............................. 1997 .............................. 1998 .............................. 1999 .............................. 2000 .............................. 2001 .............................. 2002 .............................. 1,197.3 1,293.7 1,383.7 1,499.1 1,625.5 1,749.7 1,867.2 2,033.9 2,008.4 1,873.3 509.9 547.8 591.8 670.0 751.9 834.9 903.3 1,009.0 1,010.9 845.8 138.5 156.7 179.3 190.6 203.0 204.2 213.0 223.8 170.2 179.8 85.3 95.2 93.0 95.1 93.7 97.4 100.2 109.1 110.3 110.6 463.7 493.9 519.6 543.3 577.0 613.1 650.7 692.1 716.9 737.1 2000: I ............................. II ........................... III .......................... IV .......................... 2001: I ............................. II ........................... III .......................... IV .......................... 2002: I ............................. II ........................... III .......................... IV .......................... 2003: I ............................. II ........................... III r ......................... 2,009.6 2,022.9 2,049.1 2,054.1 2,072.9 2,072.3 1,896.0 1,992.3 1,884.7 1,883.7 1,864.1 1,860.8 1,865.0 1,871.3 1,794.2 984.5 997.2 1,020.5 1,033.6 1,057.9 1,059.8 900.4 1,025.5 874.8 856.6 831.3 820.5 800.7 806.7 703.3 233.7 230.5 222.1 208.9 186.9 183.2 168.0 142.9 170.5 180.2 181.1 187.5 200.7 196.5 220.1 107.0 109.5 109.8 110.1 112.3 112.2 109.5 107.3 108.4 110.2 112.4 111.5 111.2 111.9 110.4 684.5 685.7 696.6 701.5 715.8 717.1 718.1 716.6 731.1 736.7 739.3 741.4 752.5 756.2 760.4 Period Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 34 Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Current surplus or deficit (¥), national income and product accounts Consumption expenditures Transfer payments Grantsin-aid to State and local governments 1,471.5 1,506.0 1,575.7 1,635.9 1,678.8 1,705.9 1,755.3 1,827.1 1,936.4 2,075.5 442.6 439.7 439.2 445.3 456.9 453.1 471.6 493.3 528.4 586.5 597.9 618.6 652.1 691.6 717.5 730.6 745.8 779.5 842.2 931.7 162.6 174.5 184.5 190.4 196.8 210.3 231.0 247.5 277.4 305.7 230.2 239.6 267.5 273.6 276.2 278.5 263.8 263.0 238.1 207.8 38.2 33.6 32.4 35.1 31.5 33.4 43.0 43.8 50.3 43.7 0.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 ¥274.1 ¥212.3 ¥192.0 ¥136.8 ¥53.3 43.8 111.9 206.9 72.0 ¥202.1 1,786.4 1,825.7 1,835.9 1,860.3 1,899.1 1,927.8 1,947.7 1,971.0 2,030.5 2,079.3 2,074.6 2,117.4 2,145.1 2,261.5 2,245.5 480.0 758.5 501.3 774.6 494.2 781.3 497.7 803.5 517.3 816.3 524.9 832.2 527.9 849.3 543.6 870.9 566.3 916.9 581.0 927.6 589.8 934.1 608.9 948.5 626.6 970.7 664.3 990.9 662.8 1,000.4 239.4 242.2 253.8 254.6 266.8 281.9 271.4 289.4 292.3 309.6 305.0 315.8 313.0 351.4 341.6 264.2 264.1 263.0 260.5 254.1 243.1 233.6 221.6 208.5 214.9 205.8 202.1 192.7 194.9 188.8 44.2 43.5 43.6 44.0 44.6 45.6 65.5 45.5 46.6 46.3 39.9 42.1 43.5 58.6 51.9 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 1.4 ¥1.4 .0 223.2 197.2 213.2 193.8 173.8 144.4 ¥51.7 21.3 ¥145.8 ¥195.6 ¥210.5 ¥256.6 ¥280.1 ¥390.2 ¥451.3 Total INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Industrial production (1997=100; seasonally adjusted) Period United States Consumer prices (1982–84=100; NSA) Germany Italy 143.4 145.8 148.4 151.4 153.2 154.2 155.0 157.6 160.2 163.3 127.6 131.1 133.3 135.3 137.8 139.1 140.0 142.0 144.8 146.7 187.7 195.3 205.6 213.8 218.2 222.5 226.2 231.9 238.3 244.3 r 111.3 r 103.5 2002: Sept ......................... 118.2 93.6 r 111.5 112.0 99.8 181.0 174.5 119.2 163.9 r 111.0 r 102.9 Oct ........................... 118.5 93.7 r 110.4 111.8 99.3 181.3 175.1 118.9 164.2 r 111.2 r 111.5 Nov ........................... 118.1 93.5 113.5 103.3 99.2 181.3 175.5 118.9 164.2 r 110.6 Dec .......................... 118.3 93.3 r 110.2 110.5 102.9 99.5 180.9 174.9 118.9 164.5 r 111.2 2003: Jan .......................... 118.9 95.0 111.1 112.7 102.7 98.6 181.7 176.4 118.5 164.8 r 111.6 r 118.2 Feb .......................... 93.2 r 111.6 113.1 102.8 99.5 183.1 177.7 118.2 165.9 r 110.8 Mar .......................... 118.0 93.4 r 110.9 112.5 102.4 99.0 184.2 178.4 118.5 166.7 r 110.1 r 117.1 Apr .......................... 92.1 r 110.1 112.4 102.4 99.0 183.8 177.1 118.9 166.4 r 110.0 r 116.7 May .......................... 94.2 r 108.7 111.6 101.1 99.1 183.5 177.2 119.2 166.2 r110.0 r115.5 June ......................... 93.1 r 109.4 110.7 101.7 99.8 183.7 177.4 118.8 166.5 r110.8 r 116.4 r 103.4 r 99.6 July .......................... 92.9 r 109.6 113.9 183.9 177.5 118.5 166.4 r 111.0 r 115.5 r 103.5 r 98.7 Aug .......................... 92.8 r 109.0 109.9 184.6 178.0 118.8 166.7 r 111.5 r 96.4 Sept ......................... 117.8 109.4 108.2 102.8 98.7 185.2 178.3 118.9 167.3 Oct p ......................... 111.8 .............. 96.9 ............ .............. .............. .............. 185.0 177.8 118.9 167.8 Nov p ......................... .............. .............. ............ ............ .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ............ ............ 146.8 146.6 146.2 147.6 147.6 148.3 148.5 148.1 147.8 148.2 148.5 148.5 148.3 148.3 148.1 245.3 208.7 245.9 209.0 246.7 209.4 247.0 209.7 248.0 209.6 248.4 210.7 249.2 211.4 249.8 212.9 250.4 213.3 250.7 213.0 251.1 213.0 251.7 213.4 252.1 214.4 252.3 214.5 252.9 .............. 1993 .................................... 1994 .................................... 1995 .................................... 1996 .................................... 1997 .................................... 1998 .................................... 1999 .................................... 2000 .................................... 2001 ..................................... 2002 p ................................... Canada 80.8 84.2 89.4 93.5 94.7 100.0 103.5 109.5 118.5 115.0 117.3 r 85.2 r 89.3 93.1 100.0 r 105.9 r 110.6 r 115.4 r 111.5 r 110.9 Japan 90.4 91.5 94.4 96.6 100.0 93.5 93.8 99.0 92.7 r 91.7 France 89.5 93.2 95.4 96.3 100.0 105.2 107.2 111.0 r 112.3 r 111.2 Germany United Kingdom Italy 92.1 95.0 95.8 96.5 100.0 104.2 105.7 112.3 112.8 111.6 87.5 92.6 98.0 96.4 100.0 101.3 101.2 105.3 104.1 102.7 1 Data relate to all urban consumers. NOTE.—See Note, p. 17, for information on U.S. industrial production series. United States 1 90.7 95.6 97.3 98.6 100.0 101.0 102.2 104.2 102.5 99.8 Canada 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.2 177.1 179.9 Japan 147.9 148.2 151.4 153.8 156.3 157.8 160.5 164.9 169.1 172.9 118.5 119.3 119.2 119.3 121.5 122.2 121.8 121.0 120.1 119.0 France United Kingdom 165.3 169.3 175.2 179.4 185.1 191.4 194.3 200.1 203.6 207.0 Data are as available through November 28, 2003. Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Trade Administration, Office of Trade and Economic Analysis). U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES [Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Goods: Exports (f.a.s. value) Goods: Imports (customs value) Census basis (by end-use category) Services (BOP basis) Balance of trade (exports minus imports) Census basis (by end-use category) BOP basis Period BOP basis Total, Census basis 1 Auto- ConIndusmo- sumer Foods, trial Capital tive goods feeds, supgoods vehi- (nonand plies except cles, food) bevand auto- parts except erages mate- motive and autorials enmogines tive BOP basis IndusAutoFoods, trial Capital motive Total, feeds, supgoods vehiCensus and plies except cles, basis 1 bevand auto- parts erages mate- motive and enrials gines Consumer goods (nonfood) except automotive Exports Imports Goods, Census basis Goods Services Goods and services ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. 456.9 502.9 575.2 612.1 678.4 670.4 684.0 772.0 718.7 681.9 465.1 512.6 584.7 625.1 689.2 682.1 695.8 781.9 729.1 693.1 40.6 42.0 50.5 55.5 51.5 46.4 46.0 47.9 49.4 49.6 111.8 121.4 146.2 147.7 158.2 148.3 147.5 172.6 160.1 156.8 181.7 205.0 233.0 253.0 294.5 299.4 310.8 356.9 321.7 290.5 52.4 57.8 61.8 65.0 74.0 72.4 75.3 80.4 75.4 78.9 54.7 60.0 64.4 70.1 77.4 80.3 80.9 89.4 88.3 84.4 589.4 668.7 749.4 803.1 876.5 917.1 1,030.0 1,224.4 1,145.9 1,164.7 580.7 663.3 743.5 795.3 869.7 911.9 1,024.6 1,218.0 1,141.0 1,161.4 27.9 31.0 33.2 35.7 39.7 41.2 43.6 46.0 46.6 49.7 145.6 162.1 181.8 204.5 213.8 200.1 221.4 299.0 273.9 267.7 152.4 184.4 221.4 228.1 253.3 269.5 295.7 347.0 298.0 283.3 102.4 118.3 123.8 128.9 139.8 148.7 179.0 195.9 189.8 203.7 134.0 146.3 159.9 172.0 193.8 217.0 241.9 281.8 284.3 307.9 185.4 199.8 218.5 238.8 255.5 262.1 281.5 298.1 288.9 292.2 122.1 131.1 139.4 150.6 164.4 178.6 196.7 221.0 219.5 227.4 ¥115.6 ¥150.6 ¥158.8 ¥170.2 ¥180.5 ¥229.8 ¥328.8 ¥436.1 ¥411.9 ¥468.3 ¥132.5 ¥165.8 ¥174.2 ¥191.0 ¥198.1 ¥246.7 ¥346.0 ¥452.4 ¥427.2 ¥482.9 63.3 68.6 79.1 88.1 91.1 83.5 84.8 77.0 69.4 64.8 ¥69.2 ¥97.2 ¥95.1 ¥102.9 ¥107.0 ¥163.2 ¥261.2 ¥375.4 ¥357.8 ¥418.0 2002: Sept .. Oct .... Nov ... Dec ... 57.8 57.3 57.8 55.8 58.7 58.3 58.7 56.7 4.1 3.9 4.3 4.4 13.3 13.2 13.5 13.6 24.8 24.5 24.4 22.5 6.7 6.7 6.5 6.5 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.0 99.7 97.9 101.9 103.2 99.4 97.6 101.6 103.0 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.5 23.5 24.5 23.8 24.3 23.8 22.3 24.4 24.7 17.7 17.1 17.6 17.7 26.2 25.5 27.5 27.7 24.5 24.9 25.2 25.3 19.2 19.4 19.6 20.2 ¥40.8 ¥39.3 ¥42.9 ¥46.3 ¥41.9 ¥40.6 ¥44.1 ¥47.4 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.1 ¥36.7 ¥35.2 ¥38.6 ¥42.3 2003: Jan ... Feb ... Mar ... Apr ... May .. June July .. Aug r .. Septp 57.1 57.9 58.3 57.2 57.8 59.3 60.4 57.7 59.8 57.9 58.8 59.3 58.3 58.6 60.1 61.2 58.6 60.6 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.3 4.6 14.1 14.0 14.4 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.8 14.0 14.1 23.0 24.1 23.7 23.0 23.3 24.2 24.8 23.9 24.7 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.8 6.6 6.8 6.1 6.7 7.3 7.0 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.7 102.0 101.6 105.8 103.6 104.4 104.3 105.4 102.4 106.3 101.8 101.4 105.6 103.3 104.1 103.9 105.2 101.9 106.0 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.8 25.0 26.0 28.4 26.1 25.6 25.9 26.8 26.8 27.0 24.5 23.2 23.2 24.1 24.5 24.4 24.5 24.0 25.5 17.0 16.8 17.3 16.9 17.8 18.2 18.0 15.6 17.2 26.9 26.9 28.0 27.7 27.7 26.7 27.3 27.2 27.6 24.9 24.8 24.3 24.1 24.7 25.2 25.7 26.1 26.3 20.1 19.7 19.8 19.6 19.7 20.2 20.7 20.9 21.1 ¥43.9 ¥42.6 ¥46.3 ¥45.1 ¥45.4 ¥43.7 ¥44.0 ¥43.3 ¥45.4 ¥44.9 ¥43.7 ¥47.5 ¥46.4 ¥46.7 ¥45.1 ¥45.0 ¥44.7 ¥46.5 4.8 5.0 4.5 4.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 ¥40.0 ¥38.6 ¥43.0 ¥41.9 ¥41.6 ¥40.0 ¥40.0 ¥39.5 ¥41.3 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1 Total includes ‘‘other’’ exports or imports, not shown separately. NOTE.—BOP refers to balance of payments on international transactions basis. BOP data shown here are consistent with figures shown on pp. 36 and 37. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis). 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the second quarter of 2003, the goods deficit rose to $138.0 billion, from $136.0 billion in the first quarter. The current account deficit in the second quarter was about unchanged from the first quarter at $138.7 billion. [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits (¥)] Goods 1 Period Exports Imports Services Balance on goods ................... ................... ................... ................... ................... ................... ................... ................... ................... ................... 456,943 502,859 575,204 612,113 678,366 670,416 683,965 771,994 718,712 681,874 ¥589,394 ¥668,690 ¥749,374 ¥803,113 ¥876,485 ¥917,112 ¥1,029,987 ¥1,224,417 ¥1,145,927 ¥1,164,746 2000: III ........... IV ........... 198,821 196,830 ¥314,622 ¥315,531 ¥115,801 ¥118,701 2001: I .............. II ............. III ........... IV ........... 194,145 184,457 172,526 167,584 2002: I .............. II ............. III ........... IV ........... 2003: I .............. II p ........... 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1 Adjusted Net military transactions 2 ¥132,451 1,385 ¥165,831 2,570 ¥174,170 4,600 ¥191,000 5,385 ¥198,119 4,968 ¥246,696 5,220 ¥346,022 2,593 ¥452,423 317 ¥427,215 ¥2,436 ¥482,872 ¥7,302 Net travel and transportation 36 Other services, net Receipts Payments Balance on income Unilateral current transfers, net 3 Balance on current account 19,714 16,305 21,772 25,015 22,152 10,210 7,085 2,486 ¥3,254 ¥3,781 42,185 49,767 52,729 57,731 63,952 68,113 75,143 74,236 75,086 75,917 ¥69,166 ¥97,189 ¥95,069 ¥102,869 ¥107,047 ¥163,153 ¥261,201 ¥375,384 ¥357,819 ¥418,038 134,545 165,838 211,920 226,271 261,026 258,648 290,198 346,861 277,362 255,542 ¥110,255 ¥148,744 ¥186,880 ¥201,743 ¥240,371 ¥251,751 ¥273,088 ¥327,256 ¥266,673 ¥259,512 24,290 17,094 25,040 24,528 20,655 6,897 17,110 19,605 10,689 ¥3,970 ¥37,113 ¥37,583 ¥35,188 ¥38,862 ¥41,292 ¥48,435 ¥46,755 ¥55,679 ¥46,615 ¥58,853 ¥81,989 ¥117,678 ¥105,217 ¥117,203 ¥127,684 ¥204,691 ¥290,846 ¥411,458 ¥393,745 ¥480,861 ¥225 107 ¥75 213 18,161 18,783 ¥97,940 ¥99,598 85,791 91,000 ¥82,938 ¥82,721 2,853 8,279 ¥13,480 ¥17,435 ¥108,567 ¥108,754 ¥306,871 ¥291,627 ¥278,847 ¥268,582 ¥112,726 ¥772 ¥107,170 101 ¥106,321 ¥376 ¥100,998 ¥1,389 1,182 ¥1,157 ¥719 ¥2,563 18,876 18,770 18,373 19,068 ¥93,440 ¥89,456 ¥89,043 ¥85,882 79,087 72,607 65,701 59,967 ¥78,157 ¥71,794 ¥69,038 ¥47,683 930 813 ¥3,337 12,284 ¥11,494 ¥11,321 ¥11,256 ¥12,542 ¥104,004 ¥99,964 ¥103,636 ¥86,140 165,298 171,421 174,315 170,840 ¥271,331 ¥292,707 ¥297,627 ¥303,081 ¥106,033 ¥121,286 ¥123,312 ¥132,241 ¥1,609 ¥1,917 ¥1,572 ¥2,204 ¥597 ¥1,322 ¥1,118 ¥746 18,182 ¥90,057 19,637 ¥104,888 19,022 ¥106,980 19,075 ¥116,116 60,632 63,920 66,124 64,864 ¥61,365 ¥68,378 ¥67,871 ¥61,898 ¥733 ¥4,458 ¥1,747 2,966 ¥15,938 ¥13,481 ¥13,997 ¥15,436 ¥106,728 ¥122,827 ¥122,724 ¥128,586 173,346 174,034 ¥309,364 ¥312,013 ¥136,018 ¥2,847 ¥137,979 ¥2,977 ¥2,339 ¥2,536 19,575 ¥121,629 20,084 ¥123,408 62,901 63,011 ¥62,710 ¥61,332 191 1,679 ¥17,269 ¥16,942 ¥138,707 ¥138,671 from Census data for differences in timing and coverage; excludes military. under U.S. military agency sales contracts (exports) minus direct defense expenditures (imports). 2 Transfers Income receipts and payments Balance on goods and services 3 Includes transfers of goods and services under U.S. military grant programs. See p. 37 for continuation of table. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the financial account, U.S. claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $60.6 billion in the second quarter of 2003, following an increase of $27.8 billion in the first quarter. U.S. liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $33.2 billion in the second quarter, following an increase of $16.7 billion in the first quarter. [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits (¥)] Financial account Period Capital account transactions, net U.S.-owned assets abroad, net [increase/financial outflow (¥)] Total U.S. official reserve assets 4 Other U.S. Government assets Statistical discrepancy Foreign-owned assets in the U.S., net [increase/financial inflow (+)] U.S. private assets Total Foreign official assets Other foreign assets Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy U.S. official reserve assets, net 4 (unadjusted, end of period) .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. ¥1,299 ¥1,723 ¥927 ¥654 ¥1,044 ¥740 ¥4,843 ¥799 ¥1,062 ¥1,285 ¥200,552 ¥176,056 ¥352,376 ¥413,923 ¥487,599 ¥347,829 ¥503,640 ¥569,798 ¥349,939 ¥178,985 ¥1,379 5,346 ¥9,742 6,668 ¥1,010 ¥6,783 8,747 ¥290 ¥4,911 ¥3,681 ¥351 ¥390 ¥984 ¥989 68 ¥422 2,750 ¥941 ¥486 ¥32 ¥198,822 ¥181,012 ¥341,650 ¥419,602 ¥486,657 ¥340,624 ¥515,137 ¥568,567 ¥344,542 ¥175,272 282,040 305,989 438,562 551,096 706,809 423,569 740,210 1,026,139 765,531 706,983 71,753 39,583 109,880 126,724 19,036 ¥19,903 43,543 37,724 5,104 94,860 210,287 266,406 328,682 424,372 687,773 443,472 696,667 988,415 760,427 612,123 1,799 ¥10,532 19,958 ¥19,316 ¥90,482 129,691 59,119 ¥44,084 ¥20,785 ¥45,852 .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. 73,442 74,335 85,832 75,089 69,954 81,761 71,516 67,647 68,654 79,006 2000: III .......................... IV ........................... 2001: I ............................. II ............................ III .......................... IV ........................... 2002: I ............................. II ............................ III .......................... IV ........................... 2003: I ............................. II p .......................... ¥218 ¥192 ¥267 ¥260 ¥286 ¥249 ¥277 ¥286 ¥364 ¥358 ¥388 ¥325 ¥86,485 ¥160,602 ¥192,224 ¥92,213 37,353 ¥102,853 ¥35,227 ¥128,567 29,712 ¥44,902 ¥101,331 ¥106,665 ¥346 ¥1,410 190 ¥1,343 ¥3,559 ¥199 390 ¥1,843 ¥1,416 ¥812 83 ¥170 114 ¥358 77 ¥783 77 143 133 42 ¥27 ¥180 ¥70 ¥323 ¥86,253 ¥158,834 ¥192,491 ¥90,087 40,835 ¥102,797 ¥35,750 ¥126,766 31,155 ¥43,910 ¥101,344 ¥106,172 240,954 298,194 313,923 213,471 24,084 214,051 146,813 221,242 141,478 197,448 242,004 255,273 12,952 ¥4,318 4,290 ¥21,197 16,702 5,309 6,106 47,552 8,992 32,210 40,978 57,580 228,002 302,512 309,633 234,668 7,382 208,742 140,707 173,690 132,486 165,238 201,026 197,693 ¥45,684 ¥28,646 ¥17,428 ¥21,034 42,485 ¥24,809 ¥4,581 30,438 ¥48,102 ¥23,602 ¥1,578 ¥9,612 ¥8,423 3,241 6,244 799 ¥8,244 1,200 8,579 2,091 ¥12,409 1,744 9,479 702 66,256 67,647 64,222 64,847 70,963 68,654 67,574 74,696 75,860 79,006 80,049 81,660 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 4 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDRs), foreign currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents Page TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Gross Domestic Product .......................................................................................................................................................................................... Real Gross Domestic Product .................................................................................................................................................................................. Implicit Price Deflators for Gross Domestic Product .............................................................................................................................................. Gross Domestic Product and Related Price Measures: Indexes and Percent Changes .............................................................................................. Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Price, Costs, and Profits ...................................................................................................................... National Income ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... Real Personal Consumption Expenditures ............................................................................................................................................................... Sources of Personal Income ...................................................................................................................................................................................... Disposition of Personal Income ............................................................................................................................................................................... Farm Income ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ Corporate Profits ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... Real Gross Private Domestic Investment ................................................................................................................................................................ Real Private Fixed Investment by Type .................................................................................................................................................................. Business Investment ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force ......................................................................................................................................................................................... Selected Unemployment Rates ................................................................................................................................................................................ Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs ...................................................................................................... Nonagricultural Employment .................................................................................................................................................................................. Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries ................................................................. Employment Cost Index—Private Industry ............................................................................................................................................................. Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector ...................................................................................................................................................... 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization ....................................................................................................................................................... Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures .............................................................................................................. New Construction .................................................................................................................................................................................................... New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates ............................................................................................................................................................... Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade ..................................................................................................................................... Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders ................................................................................................................................................. 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers ................................................................................................................................................................ Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods ...................................................................................................................................................... Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers ............................................................................................................................................. Prices Received and Paid by Farmers ...................................................................................................................................................................... 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock and Debt Measures ............................................................................................................................................................................. Components of Money Stock ................................................................................................................................................................................... Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base ................................................................................................................................................................... Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks .................................................................................................................................................................... Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business .................................................................................................................. Consumer Credit ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... Interest Rates and Bond Yields ............................................................................................................................................................................... Common Stock Prices and Yields ............................................................................................................................................................................ 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt ....................................................................................................................................................................... Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function .............................................................................................................................................. Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis ..................................................................................................................................................... 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries ............................................................................................................... U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services ...................................................................................................................................................... U.S. International Transactions ................................................................................................................................................................................ 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: p Preliminary. r Revised. c Corrected. … Not available (also, not applicable). NSA not seasonally adjusted. 38 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Price $3.00 (single copy) ($3.75 foreign). Subscription price: $33.00 per year; $41.25 for foreign mailing. U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 2003 90–768
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