Full text of Economic Indicators : November 1986
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99tb Congress, 2d Session Economic Indicators NOVEMBER 1986 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1986 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) DAVID R. OBEY, Wisconsin, Chairman JAMES ABDNOR, South Dakota, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana) PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland) AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California) JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York) FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) DAN LUNGREN (California) OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine) BOBBI FIEDLER (California) SENATE WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho) MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia) ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York) PETE WILSON (California) LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland) SCOTT LILLY, Executive Director ROBERT J. TOSTERUD, Deputy Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS BERYL W. SPRINKEL, Chairman THOMAS G. MOORE, Member MICHAEL L. MUSSA, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—BIST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce, Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.50 a single copy ($3.13 foreign), or by subscription at $27.00 per year ($33.75 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to revised estimates for the third quarter, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 6.4 percent (annual rate) or $65.5 billion. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 2.9 percent and the implicit price deflator rose 3.6 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 4,400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 4,400 SEAS ONALLY ADJUSTED A *JNUAL RATES 4,000 GN P 3,600 IN CURRENT DOLLARS S A 3,200 '- , = . — — "1 4,000 ' 3,600 5^ 3,200 ^j --1 — "' -—-1 GNP IN 1982 DOLLARS ,^^ J 2,800 2,800 ^^ 2,400 2,400 -^ ^ 2,000 2,000 1,600 \ \ 1 1978 OURCE: DEPARTMEN \ \ 1 1 1979 1 1 1980 1 1 1981 1 1 1 1 1 1982 1 L 1983 111 1 1 1 ^985 1984 OF COMMERCE 1 1 1,600 1 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISER s [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment 2,249.7 2,508.2 2,732.0 3,052.6 3,166.0 3,405.7 3,765.0 3,998.1 1,403.5 1,566.8 1,732.6 1,915.1 2,050.7 2,234.5 2,428.2 2,600.5 416.8 454.8 437.0 515.5 447.3 502.3 662.1 661.1 Gross national product Govern]ment purch ases of gooii s and services Exports i nd imports of goods e nd services Federal Net exports and Exports Imports 18.8 32.1 33.9 26.3 -6.1 -58.7 -78.9 227.5 291.2 351.0 382.8 361.9 352.5 382.7 369.8 223.4 272.5 318.9 348.9 335.6 358.7 441.4 448.6 425.2 467.8 530.3 588.1 641.7 675.0 733.4 815.4 161.8 178.0 208.1 242.2 272.7 283.5 311.3 354.1 108.9 121.9 142.7 167.5 193.8 214.4 235.0 259.4 52.9 56.1 65.4 74.8 78.9 69.1 76.2 94.7 263.4 289.9 322.2 345.9 369.0 391.5 422.2 461.3 2,221.0 2,495.2 2,740.3 3,028.6 3,190.5 3,412.8 3,700.9 3,987.0 4.1 Total National defense Nondefense 1982: IV 3,212.5 2,117.0 409.6 14.1 335.9 321.9 671.8 293.2 205.4 87.7 378.7 3,272.4 1983: I 3,265.8 3,367.4 3,443.9 3,545.8 2,146.6 2,213.0 2,262.8 2,315.8 428.3 481.3 519.7 579.8 22.7 -2.1 — 19.3 -25.8 343.6 344.1 357.7 364.7 320.9 346.2 376.9 390.5 668.1 675.2 680.7 676.1 285.5 287.7 284.9 276.1 208.5 213.3 214.3 221.5 77.0 74.4 70.6 54.6 382.7 387.5 395.8 400.0 3,308.4 3,378.6 3,449.4 3,514.8 3,670.9 3,743.8 3,799.7 3,845.6 2,363.8 2,416.1 2,445.6 2,487.2 659.5 657.5 670.3 661.1 -45.6 63.2 -60.0 -66.1 373.4 382.1 389.2 386.2 419.0 445.3 449.1 452.2 693.2 733.3 743.8 763.4 283.4 315.2 317.2 329.1 227.1 233.7 234.5 244.9 56.3 81.6 82.7 84.2 409.8 418.1 426.6 434.3 3,575.4 3,683.9 3,735.3 3,808.9 3,909.3 3,965.0 4,030.5 4,087.7 2,530.9 2,576.0 2,627.1 2,667.9 650.6 667.1 657.4 669.5 -49.4 -77.1 -83.7 -105.3 378.4 370.0 362.3 368.2 427.9 447.1 446.0 473.6 777.3 799.0 829.7 855.6 333.7 340.9 360.9 380.9 248.9 255.1 265.5 268.0 84.8 85.8 95.5 112.9 443.5 458.1 468.8 474.7 3,883.9 3,945.9 4,027.4 4,090.8 4,149.2 4,175.6 4,241.1 2,697.9 2,732.0 2,795.9 708.3 687.3 674.8 -93.7 -104.5 -108.2 374.8 363.0 368.0 468.5 467.5 476.1 836.7 860.8 878.5 355.7 367.6 372.7 266.4 278.4 286.5 89.3 89.2 86.3 480.9 493.3 505.7 4,105.4 4,161.2 4,249.0 n m IV 1984: I n m rv 1985: I II m IV 1986: I nm r Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS [Billions of 1982 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Gross privat e dome stic invest!nent Govern nent purch ases of good s and services Exi orts of go ods a nd service Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed Change in business invento- Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total Total National defense Nondefense State and local Final sales 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 3,115.2 3,192.4 3,187.1 3,248.8 3,166.0 3,279.1 3,489.9 3,585.2 1,961.0 2,004.4 2,000.4 2,024.2 2,050.7 2,146.0 2,246.3 2,324.5 362.1 389.4 379.2 395.2 366.7 361.2 422.2 461.4 178.0 170.8 137.0 126.5 105.1 149.3 170.6 177.2 36.8 15.0 -6.9 23.9 -24.5 -6.4 59.2 9.0 -26.8 3.6 57.0 49.4 26.3 -19.9 -83.6 -108.2 312.6 356.8 388.9 392.7 361.9 348.1 369.7 362.3 339.4 353.2 332.0 343.4 335.6 368.1 453.2 470.5 604.1 609.1 620.5 629.7 641.7 649.0 675.2 721.2 233.7 236.2 246.9 259.6 272.7 275.1 291.7 323.6 160.7 164.3 171.2 180.3 193.8 206.9 219.4 235.7 73.0 71.9 75.7 79.3 78.9 68.2 72.3 87.8 370.4 373.0 373.6 370.1 369.0 373.9 383.5 397.6 3,078.4 3,177.4 3,194.0 3,225.0 3,190.5 3,285.5 3,430.7 3,576.2 1982: IV 3,159.3 2,078.7 352.3 115.8 -59.3 11.7 336.0 324.3 660.1 289.5 201.4 88.2 370.6 3,218.6 1983: I 3,186.6 3,258.3 3,306.4 3,365.1 2,094.2 2,135.1 2,163.0 2,191.9 341.6 348.8 363.9 390.4 127.8 147.4 161.9 159.9 -42.3 9.3 -1.0 27.0 16.1 -14.6 -35.0 -46.2 342.5 341.7 352.8 355.5 326.4 356.3 387.8 401.6 649.2 650.9 653.6 642.2 278.2 278.5 277.6 266.0 203.2 206.3 206.5 211.6 75.1 72.2 71.1 54.4 371.0 372.4 376.0 376.2 3,228.9 3,267.6 3,307.4 3,338.1 3,444.7 3,487.1 3,507.4 3,520.4 2,213.8 2,246.3 2,253.3 2,271.7 394.4 419.5 427.1 447.6 169.7 173.2 171.2 168.3 85.1 57.0 60.6 33.9 -68.6 -87.2 -85.7 -92.7 361.3 367.0 375.5 375.0 429.9 454.2 461.2 467.7 650.2 678.2 681.0 691.5 271.2 296.3 295.6 303.8 214.4 219.0 218.4 225.9 56.8 77.3 77.1 77.9 379.0 381.8 385.4 387.7 3,359.6 3,430.0 3,446.8 3,486.4 3,547.0 3,567.6 3,603.8 3,622.3 2,292.3 2,311.9 2,342.0 2,351.7 442.7 463.0 463.1 476.9 172.4 175.1 180.0 181.5 23.2 17.4 .7 5.2 -78.8 -108.1 -113.8 -132.0 369.4 361.2 355.8 362.9 448.2 469.3 469.6 494.8 695.3 708.3 731.8 749.4 305.8 311.4 329.9 347.2 228.0 233.5 242.2 239.3 77.8 77.9 87.6 107.9 389.5 396.9 401.9 402.2 3,523.9 3,550.2 3,603.1 3,627.5 3,655.9 3,661.4 3,687.3 2,372.7 2,408.4 2,446.8 457.8 456.8 456.7 186.3 192.7 197.2 39.9 15.1 -5.7 -125.9 153.9 -163.6 369.2 359.8 367.9 495.1 513.6 531.5 725.2 742.2 756.0 320.4 328.9 335.4 238.7 249.3 258.8 81.7 79.5 76.6 404.8 413.3 420.6 3,616.1 3,646.3 3,693.1 n m IV 1984: I n m IV 1985: I n m IV 1986: I nr m Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1982 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Personal c onsumption expenditures Period 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 national product Total Durable goods Gross i rivate domestic urvestment Services 76.9 82.1 89.2 95.7 100.0 102.1 103.8 104.5 71.9 80.0 89.4 96.9 100.0 102.1 105.0 107.5 69.8 75.6 83.9 92.6 100.0 106.2 111.7 117.3 71.5 77.8 85.1 93.4 100.0 98.8 98.7 99.3 72.2 78,6 85.7 94.0 100.0 103.9 107.9 111.5 71.6 78.2 86.6 94.6 100.0 104.1 108.1 111.9 1982: IV 101.7 101.8 100.7 101.0 102.7 1983: I 102.5 103.3 104.2 105.4 102.5 103.6 104.6 105.7 101.3 101.6 102.3 103.1 100.6 101.9 102.6 103.1 104.2 105.5 106.8 108.3 1984: I 106.6 107.4 108.3 109.2 106.8 107.6 108.5 109.5 103.3 103.9 104.1 104.1 104.4 104.5 105.1 106.0 1985: I 110.2 111.1 111.8 112.8 110.4 111.4 112.2 113.4 104.6 104.5 104.5 104.3 1986: I 113.5 114.0 115.0 113.7 113.4 114.3 104.5 104.7 105.8 n rn rv n m rv n m rv n r m 1 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Nonresidential Nondurable goods Exports an . imports of goods an 1 services Gove irment pure mses of goo ds and sernces Federal Residential fixed Exports Imports National defense Nondefense 72.4 78.0 86.4 94.3 100.0 101.4 105.5 107.9 State and local 71.1 77.7 86.2 93.4 100.0 104.7 110.1 116.0 72.6 81.4 89.4 96.6 100.0 102.2 106.3 108.2 72.8 81.6 90.2 97.5 100.0 101.3 103.5 102.1 65.8 77.1 96.0 101.6 100.0 97.4 97.4 95.4 69.2 15.4 84.3 93.3 100.0 103.1 106.7 109.4 67.8 74.2 83.4 92.9 100.0 103.6 107.1 110.0 100.7 99.1 100.0 99.3 101.3 102.0 99.5 102.2 99.8 98.8 98.4 98.3 101.9 100.3 103.2 103.1 100.3 100.7 101.4 102.6 98.3 97.2 97.2 97.2 102.6 103.3 102.6 103.8 102.6 103.4 103.8 104.7 102.6 103.0 99.3 100.3 103.1 104.1 105.3 106.3 109.6 110.9 112.4 113.6 98.4 98.5 98.8 99.0 103.6 106.4 107.5 107.8 103.4 104.1 103.6 103.0 97.5 98.0 97.4 96.7 104.5 106.4 107.3 108.3 105.9 106.7 107.3 108.4 99.2 105.5 107.3 108.2 108.1 109.5 110.7 112.0 106.5 107.2 107.5 108.9 115.0 116.6 118.0 119.5 99.4 99.2 99.3 99.4 107.6 107.8 108.1 109.4 102.4 102.4 101.8 101.5 95.5 95.3 95.0 95.7 109.1 109.5 109.4 109.7 109.2 109.3 109.6 112.0 109.0 110.2 108.9 104.6 113.9 115.4 116.6 118.0 108.0 105.8 106.6 120.6 121.8 122.7 100.3 100.2 100.9 110.2 111.7 112.5 101.5 100.9 100.0 94.6 91.0 89.6 111.0 111.8 111.1 111.6 111.7 110.7 109.2 112.1 112.6 118.8 119.4 120.2 CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Grt ss national prc duct Period Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars -0.2 8.9 1980 1.9 11.7 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982: IV 1983: I 3,7 7.6 -2.5 3.6 6.4 2.7 .6 3.5 9.3 6.0 7.3 9.8 5.0 2.3 1.5 3.1 2.3 4.1 2.1 3.8 .6 2.9 10.5 6.2 4.2 6.8 n in 13.0 9.4 12.4 14.9 IV 1984: I n m 8.2 6.1 4.9 6.8 5.8 6.8 5.8 6.2 2.6 6.4 IV 1985: I n m IV 1986: I n r m Implicit price deflator Personal consumption ej penditures Chain price index 9.0 9.7 9.0 6.4 3.9 3.8 3.3 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.5 4.7 4.6 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.3 2.5 3.6 2.5 1.8 3.6 6.3 4.1 4.0 3.6 4.1 3.7 3.6 4.1 3.9 4.8 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.9 3.5 2.5 3.9 1.9 1.5 2.4 NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. 9.4 Fixedweighted price index (1982 wsights) Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars 9.3 9.3 6.2 4.1 4.0 3.7 4.0 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.0 4.7 3.6 3.5 3.6 4.2 3.6 2.8 4.0 2.5 1.7 2.4 10.6 10.5 7.1 9.0 8.7 7.1 10.3 5.7 13.0 9.3 9.7 8.6 9.1 5.0 7.0 7.2 7.3 8.2 6.4 4.6 5.2 9.7 Implicit price deflator -0.2 1.2 1.3 4.6 4.7 3.5 5.3 3.0 8.0 5.3 5.5 4.1 6.0 1.3 3.3 3.7 3.5 5.3 1.7 3.6 6.2 6.5 Chain price index 10.7 9.2 5.7 4.1 3.8 3.5 4.4 2.8 4.4 3.9 4.3 4.2 3.0 3.4 3.7 3.3 3.7 2.9 4.3 1.1 — 1.1 3.2 10.9 9.2 5.7 4.2 4.0 3.6 4.8 2.8 4.6 4.0 4.1 4.5 3.0 3.7 3.7 3.5 4.0 2.8 4.7 1.4 -.3 3.2 Fixedweighted price index (1982 weights) 10.5 9.0 5.6 4.2 4.0 3.7 4.8 2.8 4.6 4.1 4.1 4.7 3.0 3.8 3.8 3.6 4.2 3.0 4.7 1.5 — .4 3.1 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Curren t-dollar cos t and profit per unit o output (do liars) ' Gross <3 omestic produ ct of nonfin ancial corporate business (billions o f dollars) Period Current 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982: IV 1983: I n m IV 1984: I n m IV 1985: I n ffl IV 1986: I n m" 1 1,540.8 1,738.4 1,782.2 1,914.2 2,143.7 2,275.1 1,779.4 1,816.0 1,883.9 1,944.5 2,012.5 2,081.7 2,135.9 2,160.3 2,196.8 2,226.0 2,259.1 2,301.3 2,314.1 2,343.6 2,341.5 2,368.1 1982 1,807.9 1,837.2 1,782.2 1,866.0 2,030.8 2,105.5 1,760.2 1,790.7 1,844.7 1,887.9 1,940.5 1,993.8 2,031.6 2,038.4 2,059.4 2,075.7 2,094.4 2,124.6 2,127.3 2,141.0 2,135.3 2,142.5 Total cost and profit 2 0.852 .946 1.000 1.026 1.056 1.081 1.011 1.014 1.021 1.030 1.037 1.044 1.051 1.060 1.067 1.072 1.079 1.083 1.088 1.095 1.097 1.105 Indirect business taxes 3 0.095 .109 .125 .123 .118 .120 .131 .127 .124 .123 .120 .118 .117 .118 .119 .119 .120 .119 .121 .121 .123 .123 0.077 .090 .094 .098 .100 .103 .096 .097 .099 .099 .098 .099 .100 .101 .101 .102 .104 .103 .104 .106 .103 .107 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1982 dol- lars. 2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. Corpc>rate profits with inventory valuation a nd capital consuniption adjustments Capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment 3 4 Compensation of employees 0.581 .632 .676 .679 .690 .708 .685 .682 .676 .676 .680 .683 .684 .694 .699 .704 .708 .705 .716 .721 .724 .727 Net interest Total 0.031 .037 .043 .037 .041 .043 .042 .039 .037 .037 .037 .037 .039 .042 .043 .044 .043 .042 .042 .042 .041 .041 0.068 .078 .063 .089 .107 .106 .057 .069 .086 .095 .103 .107 .111 .104 .104 .103 .104 .113 .105 .105 .106 .107 Profits tax liability 0.037 .035 .026 .032 .037 .032 .023 .023 .031 .036 .036 .041 .040 .034 .032 .031 .029 .033 .033 .029 .031 .033 Profits after tax 4 0.031 .044 .037 .057 .070 .075 .034 .046 .055 .059 .066 .067 .071 .070 .072 .073 .075 .080 .072 .076 .075 .075 Output per hour of all employees (1982 dollars) Compensation per hour of all employees (dollars) 17.096 17.194 17.318 17.867 18.224 18.436 17.383 17.634 17.865 17.936 18.027 18.172 18.275 18.201 18.250 18.285 18.384 18.604 18.472 18.449 18.449 18.450 9.939 10.861 11.699 12.124 12.574 13.060 11.915 12.031 12.073 12.126 12.259 12.406 12.498 12.630 12.758 12.878 13.011 13.121 13.229 13.294 13.347 13.407 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. With inventory valuation and capita! consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period National income Compensation of employ- Proprietor s' income with inirentory valuation a nd capital consuniption adjust nents Farm 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982: IV 1983: I n ra IV 1984: I n m rv 1985: I n m rv 1986: I n mr. 1 Profits wi .h inventory valuation adjustmer t and withoiit capital consulmption adjus ment Total tion adjustment Nonfarm 2,443.5 2,518.4 2,719.5 3,032.0 3,222.3 2,548.2 2,599.1 2,685.5 2,741.8 2,851.5 2,963.2 3,010.3 3,052.3 3,102.0 3,157.0 3,201.4 3,243.4 3,287.3 1,807.4 1,907.0 2,020.7 2,214.7 2,368.2 1,931.1 1,958.8 1,995.0 2,036.3 2,092.7 2,153.7 2,195.4 2,234.7 2,275.0 2,316.3 2,352.1 2,380.9 2,423.6 30.7 24.6 12.4 31.5 29.2 28.5 18.1 15.9 -3.5 19.3 44.5 26.4 24.7 30.4 32.9 33.0 21.6 29.4 156.1 150.9 178.4 205.3 225.2 159.8 165.9 176.4 183.0 188.6 198.0 203.2 209.9 210.3 217.8 222.5 227.7 232.7 13.3 13.6 13.2 8.3 7.6 15.8 13.8 15.4 11.2 12.4 12.1 8.4 7.1 5.6 6.8 8.1 7.3 8.3 3,340.7 3,376.4 3,396.7 2,461.5 2,480.2 2,507.3 24.4 39.5 21.4 240.9 249.6 258.0 12.8 16.3 15.9 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. {See also p. 5.) Corpora e profits wil i inventory valuation an( . capital consufl flption adjust ments Rental income of persons with capital Total ' Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment Capital eonsump- Net interest adjust- 188.0 150.0 213.7 264.7 280.7 146.1 170.6 207.0 228.9 248.5 262.5 271.7 259.8 265.0 266.4 274.3 296.3 285.6 202.3 159.2 196.7 230.2 222.6 150.7 163.9 191.2 208.5 223.4 235.7 241.5 223.3 220.3 213.3 215.4 235.3 226.4 226.5 169.6 207.6 235.7 223.2 164.1 169.7 201.8 227.5 231.5 249.3 246.5 225.1 221.9 213.8 213.8 229.2 235.8 24.2 -10.4 -10.9 5.5 -.6 -13.4 -5.9 -10.6 19.0 -8.1 -13.6 4.9 -1.8 -1.6 -.5 1.6 6.1 9.4 -14.4 -9.2 17.0 34.5 58.1 -4.5 6.7 15.8 20.5 25.1 26.7 30.2 36.5 44.7 53.2 58.9 61.0 59.2 248.1 272.3 281.0 307.4 311.4 266.9 272.1 275.8 285.9 290.2 292.5 305.2 316.1 315.7 316.8 311.4 309.7 307.6 296.4 293.1 299.6 240.8 241.9 249.4 224.3 231.3 241.3 16.5 10.6 8.0 55.6 51.3 50.2 304.9 297.7 294.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nondurable g< ods Durablt goods Period 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982: IV 1983: I n ra IV 1984: I n ra IV 1985: I n m IV 1986: I n mr consumption expendi- Total durable goods 1,915.1 2,050.7 2,234.5 2,428.2 2,600.5 2,117.0 2,146.6 2,213.0 2,262.8 2,315.8 2,363.8 2,416.1 2,445.6 2,487.2 2,530.9 2,576.0 2,627.1 2,667.9 239.9 252.7 289.1 331.2 359.3 263.8 266.7 284.5 295.2 310.0 321.2 331.3 331.8 340.4 347.7 354.0 373.3 362.0 100.5 108.9 130.4 154.5 169.2 115.7 115.0 128.5 133.7 144.4 150.4 155.8 154.4 157.6 162.3 165.3 182.8 166.4 92.7 95.7 107.1 118.9 126.8 99.1 101.6 105.3 109.2 112 .4 115.6 118.3 119.2 122.3 123.5 125.9 126.8 130.9 46.6 48.1 51.6 57.8 63.3 49.0 50.2 50.6 52.3 53.2 55.2 57.2 58.3 60.4 61.9 62.8 63.7 64.7 740.6 771.0 816.7 870.1 905.1 786.6 791.0 810.9 827.0 837.9 855.7 870.3 873.9 880.3 888.2 902.3 907.4 922.6 2,697.9 2,732.0 2,795.9 360.8 373.9 410.7 163.5 172.0 201.7 132.1 135.8 140.2 65.3 66.0 68.9 929.7 928.4 932.2 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Motor vehicles and parts Furniture and household equipment Other Total nondurable ° Serv- Betail =ales of new pa ssenger cars (mi lions of un ts) Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil 376.5 398.8 421.9 449.9 469.3 407.0 411.1 418.8 426.8 430.8 440.4 447.9 454.3 456.9 461.2 468.3 470.4 477.4 119.9 124.4 135.1 147.2 155.2 126.5 128.7 134.5 136.0 141.1 144.4 148.2 146.6 149.7 151.7 155.0 155.4 158.7 92.7 89.1 90.2 90.7 91.9 89.8 87.0 89.4 92.5 91.9 92.0 91.7 89.4 89.9 89.6 92.8 92.4 93.0 934.7 151.6 158.7 1,027.0 169.5 1,128.7 182.2 1,227.0 188.7 1,336.1 163.4 1,066.5 164.3 1,088.9 168.2 1,117.6 171.7 1,140.6 174.0 1,167.9 178.8 1,186.9 182.5 1,214.5 183.6 1,239.9 183.8 1,266.5 185.8 1,294.9 186.2 1,319.7 189.1 1,346.4 193.5 1,383.2 6.2 5.8 6.8 8.0 8.2 6.0 6.0 6.9 6.9 7.4 8.1 8.1 7.9 7.7 8.3 8.1 9.4 7.0 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.2 484.6 490.3 493.2 161.3 165.0 166.6 87.6 78.1 74.3 196.2 194.9 198.1 1,407.4 1,429.8 1,453.0 7.8 8.1 9.7 2.8 3.1 3.5 Food Other Domestics Imports — SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $12,7 billion (annual rate) in October, following a rise of $11.1 billion in September. The increases were affected by two special factors: changes in subsidy payments to farmers (which fell in October and rose in September) and bonus payments to auto industry employees in October. Excluding the effect of these factors, personal income increased $10.3 billion in October and $6.6 billion in September. BILLIONS OF DOUARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOUARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,800 3,800 ~ 3,200 3,200 1,600 1,600 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 800 800 OTHER INCOME 400 400 \ TRANSFER PAYMENTS 200 1 1 I 1 1 I 1 1 i i i 1978 i I 11 1 1 1 1979 in I ii i M 11 i 1 1 I i i i 1 1 1980 1981 'iiiiiiiiii 1983 1982 I i i i ii 1984 200 I I I 1 ! i I 1985 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1978 ; 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Total personal income Wage an ments n Proprietors ' income 3 , income Farm Nonfarm Kental income of persons 4 Personal dividend income Personal interest income Transfer payments 5 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance Nonfarm personal income 6 1,812.4 2,033.9 2,258.4 2,520.9 2,670.8 2,838.6 3,110.2 3,314.5 1,119.3 1,252.1 1,372.0 1,510.3 1,586.1 1,676.6 1,836.8 1,966.1 107.7 122.7 138.4 150.3 163.6 173.6 184.5 196.9 27.0 31.7 20.5 30.7 24.6 12.4 31.5 29.2 149.2 160.1 160.1 156.1 150.9 178.4 205.3 225.2 9.3 5.6 6.6 13.3 13.6 13.2 8.3 7.6 43.0 48.1 52.9 61.3 63.9 68.7 74.7 76.4 182.5 221.4 271.9 335.4 369.7 393.1 446.9 476.2 244.0 273.1 324.7 368.1 410.6 442.6 455.6 487.1 69.8 81.0 88.6 104.5 112.3 120.1 133.5 150.2 1,769.3 1,983.1 2,215.8 2,465.6 2,618.7 2,799.0 3,052.2 3,261.0 1985: Get Nov Dec 3,358.3 3,372.3 3,418.0 1,996.7 2,010.5 2,031.1 200.8 201.7 202.6 24.0 26.0 38.2 230.8 232.4 234.9 10.4 2.9 11.7 76.4 76.8 76.9 478.7 481.0 482.2 492.7 493.5 494.5 152.1 152.7 154.0 3,311.0 3,323.2 3,356.9 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July r. Aug r Sepf Oct" 3,417.4 3,435.3 3,445.1 3,486.8 3,481.3 3,481.9 3,492.9 3,500.5 3,511.6 3,524.3 2,035.7 2,044.8 2,051.8 2,054.9 2,058.4 2,063.2 2,072.0 2,083.4 2,087.8 2,102.1 203.6 204.5 205.5 206.4 207.3 208.2 209.5 210.4 211.3 212.1 23.4 26.9 22.8 53.0 38.1 27.5 20.3 20.9 23.2 19.9 237.9 241.0 243.8 247.5 249.1 252.2 255.4 257.4 261.3 262.7 12.2 12.7 13.5 15.1 16.6 17.1 16.4 15.8 15.4 15.4 78.0 79.2 80.0 80.8 81.1 81.5 81.7 82.1 82.3 82.4 481.4 480.7 480.4 480.5 480.1 479.8 477.5 475.0 472.8 471.1 503.4 504.2 506.5 507.9 510.7 511.8 520.3 516.5 518.6 520.5 158.0 158.7 159.1 159.2 159.9 159.3 160.2 160.9 161.1 162.0 3,371.1 3,385.6 3,399.5 3,411.0 3,420.5 3,431.7 3,449.8 3,456.7 3,465.5 3,481.5 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements.. —----- of -t employer - - -i - contributions —i-iu-.i:— . :—i. -3 health, and welfare funds; workers' injury ns j oni health, ^Consists to private pension, compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 4 With capital consumption adjustment. Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments, Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. 5 6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Per capita disposable personal income fell in the third quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 1,000 DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 14,000 — PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 12,000 DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 14,000 12,000 10,000 10,000 1982'DOLLARS 8,000 8,000 6,000 6,000 I 4,000 1978 I I 1979 I I I 1980 I I 1981 I I I 1982 I I 1983 I I I I 1984 I I I I I 4,000 1985 ' SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period .L ersonal income Less: Personal tax and nontax payments Equals: Disposable personal income Equals: Personal saving Less: Personal outlays * Disposable personal mco e in 1982 dollars (billions) Per CE pita disposable personal inco me Current dollars 1,812.4 2,033.9 2,258.4 2,520.9 2,670.8 2,838.6 3,110.2 3,314.5 261.1 304.7 340.5 393.3 409.3 410.5 439.6 486.5 1,551.2 1,729.3 1,917.9 2,127.6 2,261.4 2,428.1 2,670.6 2,828.0 Current dollars 1982 dollars 110.2 118.0 136.8 159.4 153.9 130.6 168.7 143.3 1,441.1 1,611.3 1,781.1 1,968.1 2,107.5 2,297.4 2,501.9 2,684.7 2,167.4 2,212.6 2,214.3 2,248.6 2,261.5 2,331.9 2,470.6 2,528.0 6,968 7,682 8,421 9,243 9,724 10,340 11,265 11,817 9,735 9,829 9,722 9,769 9,725 9,930 10,421 10,563 6,304 6,960 7,607 8,320 8,818 9,515 10,243 10,866 [ Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of Population, including Armed able personal income abroad (thousands) 2 Perct nt Dol ars Billi ons of dollars 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982 dollars Per capita personal consul!nption expenc itures 8,808 8,904 8,783 8,794 8,818 9,139 9,475 9,713 3.8 1.0 -1.1 .5 -.5 2.1 4.9 1.4 6.8 7.1 7.5 6.8 5.4 6.3 5.1 222,629 225,106 227,754 230,182 232,549 234,829 237,067 239,317 7.1 Seasonally adjusted ann ual rates 1982: IV 1983: I n m.... IV 1984: I n m.... IV 1985: I n m... IV 1986: I nr m . 2,729.2 411.1 2,318.1 2,174.9 143.1 2,276.1 9,929 9,749 9,068 8,904 1.2 6.2 233,466 2,753.1 2,812.6 2,846.8 2,941.8 407.4 417.1 403.6 413.9 2,345.7 2,395.4 2,443.2 2,527.9 2,206.2 2,274.4 2,326.7 2,382.5 139.5 121.1 116.4 145.4 2,288.4 2,311.1 2,335.4 2,392.7 10,025 10,215 10,391 10,725 9,780 9,855 9,933 10,151 9,174 9,437 9,624 9,825 8,950 9,105 9,200 9,299 1.3 3.1 3.2 9.1 5.9 5.1 4.8 5.8 233,981 234,509 235,117 235,707 3,034.2 3,077.4 3,139.7 3,189.6 421.5 431.2 445.9 460.0 2,612.7 2,646.3 2,693.8 2,729.6 2,433.5 2,488.7 2,520.9 2,564.6 179.2 157.6 172.9 165.0 2,446.9 2,460.3 2,481.9 2,493.1 11,060 11,178 11,350 11,471 10,358 10,392 10,457 10,477 10,007 10,206 10,304 10,452 9,372 9,488 9,494 9,547 8.4 1.3 2.5 .8 6.9 6.0 6.4 6.0 236,222 236,742 237,347 237,953 3,253.1 3,298.7 3,323.2 3,382.9 497.7 456.4 491.2 500.7 2,755.4 2,842.3 2,832.0 2,882.2 2,611.3 2,658.7 2,712.4 2,756.4 144.1 183.6 119.6 125.8 2,495.7 2,550.8 2,524.7 2,540.7 11,555 11,893 11,819 11,999 10,466 10,674 10,537 10,577 10,613 10,779 10,964 11,107 9,613 9,674 9,774 9,790 — .4 8.2 -5.0 1.5 5.2 6.5 4.2 4.4 238,469 238,985 239,605 240,206 3,432.6 3,483.3 3,501.6 497.5 504.8 518.9 2,935.1 2,978.5 2,982.7 2,789.4 2,825.5 2,892.3 145.6 153.1 90.4 2,581.2 2,625.8 2,610.3 12,193 12,348 12,336 10,723 10,886 10,796 11,208 11,326 11,564 9,857 9,984 10,120 5.6 6.2 -3.3 5.0 5.1 3.0 240,709 241,215 241,782 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to busine: , and persort1 transfer payments to foreigners (net). 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the second quarter of 1986, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income rose $19.4 billion (annual rate) and net farm income rose $21.0 billion. BILL ONS OF DOLL/\RS * (RATIO S CALE) BILLIC)NS OF DOLLA ?S * (RATIO SC ALE) 240 200 240 160 x ^-^ 120 r_^1CT~H \ I •=^_ 160 ^^ SX" ' ^=^ 120 GR DSS FARM INC OWE 80 An 60 40 40 20 20 10 10 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from farming (Jross farm incom Period Cas ti marketing rece pts Total J Total 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985" 1983: I n m 1984: IV I n m IV 1985: I n m IV 1986: I n" 128.4 150.7 149.3 166.3 163.4 152.4 174.4 166.6 154.9 148.3 155.5 151.1 174.4 168.0 173.8 181.4 170.7 164.7 157.4 173.5 146.1 165.5 112.4 131.5 139.7 141.6 142.6 136.5 142.2 142.1 143.1 137.1 142.9 122.8 136.5 141.2 144.1 146.8 137.3 135.1 139.8 156.2 131.4 129.6 Livestock and products Crops 59.2 69.2 53.2 62.3 71.7 68.0 69.2 70.2 69.5 72.9 69.4 70.9 69.2 68.2 69.5 75.6 71.4 71.6 73.1 69.2 67.8 68.0 72.6 68.5 68.2 1 Caah marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. Net farai 72.5 72.4 67.0 69.2 72.7 72.2 67.9 74.8 53.2 60.9 69.8 72.5 73.8 68.1 67.4 71.8 83.6 62.9 61.4 3 Value of inventory changes 2 1.9 5.0 -6.3 6.5 -1.8 10.9 6.3 -1.1 -11.6 — 13.5 -11.6 -6.8 1.7 7.0 9.0 7.5 3.0 .3 -2.6 -4.5 -4.2 3.7 Production expenses Current dollars 103.2 123.3 133.1 139.4 140.7 139.5 141.7 136.1 139.3 139.0 139.3 140.2 141.6 142.2 142.0 140.9 139.0 137.1 135.2 133.2 131.2 129.6 income 1982 dollars 3 25.2 27.4 16.1 26.9 22.7 13.0 32.7 30.5 34.9 34.9 18.8 28.6 22.7 12.5 30.2 27.3 15.6 9.3 16.1 10.9 15.2 9.0 15.5 10.3 32.7 25.8 31.8 40.5 30.7 23.9 31.7 27.6 22.2 40.3 29.3 36.9 28.7 24.8 19.8 35.7 14.9 35.9 13.1 31.3 Income in current dollars divided by the GNP implicit price deflator (1982= 100). NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Corporation loans and operator households. Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce. CORPORATE PROFITS In the third quarter of 1986, according to preliminary estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $10.0 (annual rate) and after-tax profits rose $6.0 billion billion. B1LLI DNS OF DOLLA RS 320 BIL IONS OF DOL ARS 320 SEASO NALLY ADJUSTED AN •JUAL RATES - — 280 280 PROFITS 5EFORE TAX /n — -^-^^ 240 V /^\ \ / —' —-~-— — — 111 0 —\ / — *""* -~v.._ 160 -'' —v ' TAX LIABILH Y, 'N-te^. — 120 \ \ ' \ v--"~""^n 200 PRC5FITS AFTER TA X [ ^ * K - ^ ^ -\ 160 40 r^" /^ V „„---"""-- 80 240 \ s \ \ 80 S / \_ ^.. — . X . — •~ / -• UNC ISTRIBUTED PR OFITS 1 1 1 1079 1978 i i i 1980 1 1 1 1 1981 1 1 1 — 1 1 1983 1982 1 1 1 1 1 I 1984 1985 1 COUNCIL OF DOURCE: DEPARTMEN OF COMMERCE 1 1 1986 0 CONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Prc fits (before t ix) with inve ntory valuati 3n adjustmen t 1 Profits after taX Dornestic industiies Total 2 Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982: IV 1983: I n m IV 1984: I n m rv 1985: I n m rv 1986: I n mp 1 2 194.0 202.3 159.2 196.7 159.6 173.8 131.2 208.5 223.4 166.6 199.2 190.8 121.6 135.7 163.0 176.8 190.7 235.7 205.2 241.5 211.5 191.3 188.8 182.6 183.8 230.2 222.6 150.7 163.9 191.2 223.3 220.3 213.3 215.4 235.3 226.4 205.3 240.8 241.9 202.4 208.9 249.4 215.4 191.3 Financial 21.0 16.5 11.8 18.1 15.4 21.0 18.7 19.4 20.3 17.2 15.5 16.6 15.4 13.4 16.1 18.2 21.1 21.7 23.2 28.4 30.2 31.3 Total 3 138.6 157.3 119.4 148.5 183.8 169.7 102.9 116.3 142.7 159.6 175.2 188.6 196.1 177.8 172.6 164.4 162.7 183.6 168.1 174.0 178.7 184.1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. Profits before tax Nonfinancial Period Manufacturing sale and retail trade 77.1 88.5 21.6 32.5 34.6 237.1 38.9 49.7 49.7 33.6 32.5 41.0 39.0 43.1 46.2 51.1 51.0 50.7 48.8 51.1 54.2 45.0 52.5 47.1 207.6 235.7 223.2 58.0 70.1 87.4 73.0 46.8 51.2 63.2 77.7 88.6 95.0 94.6 81.3 78.9 70.4 68.2 79.0 74.5 67.1 77.6 226.5 169.6 164.1 169.7 201.8 227.5 231.5 249.3 246.5 225.1 221.9 213.8 213.8 229.2 235.8 224.3 231.3 241.3 Tax liability 84.8 81.1 63.1 77.2 95.4 91.8 59.8 59.1 75.3 86.5 88.1 102.9 101.6 89.3 87.8 87.8 87.1 95.8 96.4 89.1 93.3 97.4 Total 152.3 145.4 106.5 130.4 140.3 131.4 104.3 110.6 126.6 141.0 143.4 146.4 144.8 135.8 134.1 126.0 126.7 133.4 139.4 135.2 138.0 144.0 Dividends 54.7 63.6 66.9 71.5 78.3 81.6 68.5 69.8 70.4 72.0 73.9 76.0 78.1 79.0 80.1 80.9 81.4 81.6 82.5 85.2 87.5 88.8 3 Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Undistributed profits 97.6 81.8 39.6 58.9 62.0 49.8 35.8 40.8 56.1 69.0 69.5 70.4 66.7 56.8 54.0 45.1 45.3 51.8 57.0 50.0 50.4 55.2 Inventory valuation adjustment -43.1 -24.2 — 10.4 -10.9 -5.5 -.6 -13.4 -5.9 -10.6 -19.0 -8.1 -13.6 -4.9 -1.8 -1.6 -.5 1.6 6.1 -9.4 16.5 10.6 r 8.0 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to revised estimates for the third quarter, nonresidential fixed investment rose $3.5 billion (annual rate) from its second quarter level while residential investment outlays rose $6.6 billion. There was an $8.0 billion decrease in inventories following an increase of $14.5 billion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 800 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 800 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 700 700 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 600 600 500 500 400 400 -^.--'•r'\ NONRESIDENTIALFIXED INVESTMENT 300 300 RESIDENTIAL . FIXED INVESTMENT . 200 200 100 100 CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES j_ -100 1978 1979 J_J L 1981 1980 I I I J 1982 1983 L J I L 1984 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE J_J 1985 I 1-100 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] ]nixed Investmen t Change iii business mven tories Nonresidential Period domestic investment 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982: IV 1983: I n in IV 1984: I n m IT 1985: I n rn rv 1986: I n r m Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, 454.8 437.0 515.5 447.3 502.3 662.1 661.1 409.6 428.3 481.3 519.7 579.8 659.5 657.5 670.3 661.1 650.6 667.1 657.4 669.5 708.3 687.3 674.8 Total Total 441.9 445.3 491.5 471.8 509.4 598.0 650.0 469.5 471.0 492.5 525.2 548.8 564.0 597.6 605.8 624.4 625.2 648.0 654.3 672.6 664.4 672.8 682.8 302.8 322.8 369.2 366.7 356.9 416.5 458.2 354.9 340.8 344.7 358.1 383.9 388.2 413.3 421.8 442.9 439.8 459.2 459.8 474.0 459.2 457.5 461.0 Structures 99.5 113.9 138.5 143.3 124.0 139.3 154.8 137.6 126.4 119.8 122.7 127.4 129.7 139.1 141.4 146.7 150.7 156.1 155.0 157.2 154.6 141.5 140.0 Producers' durable equipment Residential 203.3 208.9 230.7 223.4 139.1 122.5 122.3 105.1 232.8 277.3 303.4 217.3 214.4 224.9 235.5 256.5 258.4 274.1 280.4 296.2 289.1 303.1 304.7 316.8 304.6 316.0 321.0 152.5 181.4 191.8 114.7 130.2 147.8 167.1 164.9 175.8 184.4 184.0 181.5 185.4 188.8 194.5 198.6 205.3 215.3 221.9 Total 13.0 8.3 24.0 -24.5 -7.1 64.1 11.1 -59.9 -42.6 -11.2 5.5 31.0 95.5 59.9 64.4 36.7 25.4 19.1 3.1 3.1 43.8 14.5 -8.0 Nonfarm 7.9 -2.4 18.3 -23.1 .4 56.6 12.2 -51.1 33.2 -2.3 15.8 21.3 71.5 56.8 62.1 35.9 18.5 10.4 3.2 16.7 41.2 10.5 10.1 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT According to the Commerce Department July-August 1986 survey, business spending for new plant and equipment for the year 1986 is expected to be 1.9 percent below the 1985 level. Spending in 1985 was 9.2 percent above the 1984 level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 400 400 ALL INDUSTRIES 300 300 200 200 NONMANUFACTUR NG -^ 100 -MANUFACTURING 100 80 60 60 40 40 1 I 1978 I I I I I 1979 1 I 1 I I 1982 1981 1980 I 1 I I 1983 I I 1984 I I I I 1985 _l/jSURVEYED QUARTERLY 2/SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE I .£/ .£/ I 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Addenda Industries surveyed quarterly M inufacturii ie Period 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 4 1986 1984: I n m IV 1985: I n m IV 1986: I n4 m IV 1 All industries Total Durable goods NOTunanufactui ing Nondurable goods Total ' Mining Public utilities Commercial and other 245.34 284.94 314.47 349.26 347.47 343.35 398.99 431.94 Nonmanufactu ring Manufacturing 78.58 95.92 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.48 144.01 Total 166.76 189.02 202.15 222.72 226.79 227.15 260.16 278.46 Surveyed quarterly 139.18 159.04 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.65 235.58 217.76 254.96 282.80 315.22 310.58 304.78 354.44 387.13 379.59 78.58 95.92 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.48 144.01 39.46 48.50 55.36 59.81 55.35 53.08 66.24 73.27 68.23 39.13 47.42 56.96 66.73 65.33 63.12 72.58 80.21 75.78 139.18 159.04 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.65 235.58 11.22 12.81 15.99 21.39 20.05 15.19 16.86 15.88 11.29 13.36 16.05 16.60 15.84 14.79 13.97 16.52 18.02 18.35 31.50 35.63 37.74 41.21 45.43 44.96 47.48 48.81 46.22 83.09 94.56 100.14 110.24 109.63 114.45 134.75 150.94 159.72 339.32 349.43 361.27 367.78 130.64 135.66 142.46 146.52 61.49 64.18 68.26 71.01 69.15 71.48 74.21 75.51 208.69 213.76 218.81 221.25 17.41 16.41 16.81 16.84 15.67 16.91 17.22 16.29 47.01 47.98 48.17 46.77 128.61 132.46 136.61 141.36 130.64 135.66 142.46 146.52 208.69 213.76 218.81 221.25 373.56 387.86 389.23 397.88 146.94 154.25 154.47 158.26 70.29 74.34 72.99 75.47 76.64 79.91 81.48 82.79 226.62 233.61 234.76 239.61 15.81 16.56 15.89 15.25 16.70 17.45 18.81 19.15 48.44 48.61 48.44 49.79 145.68 150.99 151.62 155.42 146.94 154.25 154.47 158.26 226.62 233.61 234.76 239.61 377.94 375.92 380.52 383.99 144.03 141.68 142.72 147.60 68.01 68.33 66.30 70.28 76.02 73.35 76.43 77.32 233.90 234.24 237.79 236.39 12.99 11.23 10.80 10.16 18.22 18.28 18.74 18.15 47.03 46.55 46.08 45.24 155.67 158.18 162.18 162.84 144.03 141.68 142.72 147.60 233.90 234.24 237.79 236.39 Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May 1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nonmanufacturing surveyed annually") for data for these industries. 2 "All industries" plus the part of nonmanufacturing that is surveyed annually. 10 Transportation Total nonfarm busi-2 ness Surveyed annual- ly" 27.58 29.98 31.68 34.04 36.89 38.56 44.55 44.81 3 Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate. 4 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in July-August 1986, corrected for biases. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE In October, seasonally adjusted civilian employment rose 349,000 and unemployment fell 87,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 120 *16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Noninstitutional population Period 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan*... Feb Mar Apr May June.... July Aug Sept.... Oct including resident Armed Forces NSA 166,460 169,349 171,775 173,939 175,891 178,080 179,912 180,470 180,642 180,810 181,361 181,512 181,678 181,843 181,998 182,183 182,354 182,525 182,713 182,935 T h f |F|1 Armed Forces NSA resident Armed Forces 1,597 1,604 1,645 1,668 1,676 1,697 1,706 1,700 1,702 1,698 1,691 1,691 1,693 1,695 1,687 1,680 1,672 1,697 1,716 1,749 106,559 108,544 110,315 111,872 113,226 115,241 117,167 117,814 117,832 117,927 118,477 118,779 118,900 118,929 119,351 119,796 119,744 119,879 119,936 120,231 Employment including resident Armed Forces Nonagricultural Civilian labor force 100,421 100,907 102,042 101,194 104,962 106,940 108,670 110,204 102,510 106,702 108,856 109,513 109,671 109,904 110,646 110,252 110,481 110,587 110,797 111,353 111,554 111,852 111,607 111,989 111,550 113,544 115,461 116,114 116,130 116,229 116,786 117,088 117,207 117,234 117,664 118,116 118,072 118,182 118,220 118,482 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find full, time work, etc. 2 Labor aor force orce as percent o oi nonnsttutona noninstitutional popuaton population (both ot including n c u n resident Armed Forces). 3 Civilian labor force as percent ercent of civilian noninstitutional poulation. population. Unempl syment Civilian ernployment Resident Total 98,824 99,303 100,397 99,526 100,834 105,005 107,150 107,813 107,969 108,206 108,955 108,561 108,788 108,892 109,110 109,673 109,882 110,155 109,891 110,240 Agricultural 3,347 3,364 3,368 3,401 3,383 3,321 3,179 3,058 3,070 3,151 3,299 3,096 3,285 3,222 3,160 3,165 3,112 3,048 3,121 3,149 Total 95,477 95,938 97,030 96,125 97,450 101,685 103,971 104,755 104,899 105,055 105,655 105,465 105,503 105,670 105,950 106,508 106,769 107,107 106,770 107,091 Part-time for economic reasons 1 3,373 4,064 4,499 5,852 5,997 5,512 5,334 5,241 5,295 5,294 5,275 5,158 5,301 5,621 5,673 5,320 5,191 5,259 5,298 5,501 Total 6,137 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,301 8,161 8,023 7,831 8,527 8,419 8,342 8,554 8,443 8,190 8,027 8,329 8,242 15 weeks and over 1,241 1,871 2,285 3,485 4,210 2,737 2,305 2,277 2,205 2,188 2,056 2,340 2,258 2,135 2,209 2,320 2,256 2,295 2,405 2,167 Labor force partici] ation rate (pe rcent) Total 2 64.0 64.1 64.2 64.3 64.4 64.7 65.1 65.3 65.2 65.2 65.3 65.4 65.4 65.4 65.6 65.8 65.7 65.7 65.6 65.7 Civilian 3 63.7 63.8 63.9 64.0 64.0 64.4 64.8 65.0 64.9 64.9 65.0 65.1 65.1 65.1 65.3 65.4 65.3 65.4 65.3 65.4 'Data beginning January 1986 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of estimation procedures. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In October, the seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate was 6.9 percent, unchanged from its September level; the civilian unemployment rate was also unchanged at 7.0 percent. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 25 A /*""•"' /v i- n * " V \ TEENAGERS \ \ (16-19) v 20 * ~\\, * .~'« ( »o " V ^A 15 10 10 ;=; <^_/" w OME N 20 YEA R S ' AND OVER ^A^i \ ^cxn=>£*%- \ • /AEN 20 YEAR s AND OVER iniilniii Minium liinhiiii 1982 1986 ||||!llllll IIMlllllil 1985 1986 1984 1983 'UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE iN GROUP SPECIFIED. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemp oyment ra te (percent of civilia n labor force in group) Period Unemployment rate, all workers 1 By sex and a ge civilian workers By s elected grou )S By race Black Experienced wage and salary workers 5.5 6.9 7.3 9.3 9.2 7.1 6.8 2.8 4.2 4.3 6.5 17.8 14.4 13.7 12.3 14.3 15.6 18.9 19.5 15.9 15.1 6.5 4.6 4.3 Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over 5.7 6.4 6.8 8.3 8.1 6.8 6.6 17.8 19.6 23.2 22.4 18.9 18.6 5.1 6.3 6.7 8.6 8.4 6.5 6.2 11.3 13.1 14.2 17.3 7.5 7.2 4.2 5.9 6.3 8.8 8.9 6.6 6.2 Both sexes 16-19 years White Black and other Married men, spouse present Women who maintain families Labor force time lost (percent) 2 Fulltime workers Parttime workers 8.8 8.8 9.4 6.3 7.9 8.5 10.5 10.4 11.0 10.9 10.3 10.4 5.3 6.9 7.3 9.6 9.5 7.2 6.8 9.3 9.3 8.6 8.1 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 5.8 7.0 7.5 1985: Oct Nov Dec 7.0 6.9 6.8 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.1 6.0 5.9 6.4 6.4 6.2 19.8 18.4 18.8 6.1 5.9 5.9 13.5 14.1 13.4 14.9 15.6 14.9 6.7 6.6 6.5 4.2 4.3 4.3 10.4 10.0 9.4 6.8 6.7 6.6 9.6 8.8 9.0 7.9 7.9 7.8 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May 6.6 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.9 6.9 6.7 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.3 7.1 6.9 6.8 7.0 7.0 5.7 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.4 6.2 6.2 5.9 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.1 18.4 19.0 18.2 19.6 19.0 19.1 17.5 17.7 18.7 17.6 5.7 6.4 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.8 6.0 6.0 12.8 13.3 13.3 13.6 13.6 13.7 12.6 13.1 13.3 12.8 14.4 14.8 14.7 14.8 14.8 15.1 14.0 14.6 14.8 14.4 6.3 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.4 6.5 6.6 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.6 9.9 9.9 10.1 9.4 10.2 10.1 9.2 10.3 10.1 8.8 6.4 6.9 6.9 6.7 7.0 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.7 6.6 8.4 9.4 9.1 9.6 9.2 9.1 9.0 9.3 9.3 9.2 7.6 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.3 8.1 7.7 7.7 8.0 7.9 9.5 9.5 7.4 7.1 June.... July Aug Sept Oct 5.8 7.1 7.6 9.7 9.6 16.1 1 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces. 2 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic rea: cent of potentially available labor force hours. 12 8.3 9.2 10.4 11.7 12.2 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In October, the percentages of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 5-14 weeks rose, and the percentages out of work for 15-26 weeks and for 27 weeks and over fell. The mean and the median duration of unemployment fell. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 70 DURATIC>N OF UNE WLOYMEfs T REASON FOR UNEA\PLOYMEN r A4 60 60 *~' v \ V •\^ 50 — \ V'^-i— 50 LESST HAN \ k__ . „ ' A -V 40 * "V, X * 30 — ./•/ r-- A ,A >,- V' V .-\ \'*^ 40 5-14 WEEKS V / "" v REENTRANTS 30 *--«. />>-.^—-A' PCj -'V ^' 27 WEEKS -AND OVER- 20 tf^ \/ 20 "V-s/~-^- ^J^sf-- 15-26 WEEKS iiillilllU IiillilllU iillilUlli llUtltllil iiillilllU 1985 1984 t NEW ENTRAN1 s \ 1983 •'-'-'"• •-'v' " ,^~ ^~VJ-~A A — 1982 /* V JOB LOSERS 5 WE EKS ItlllllllU mniiini —AA /— JOB LEAVERS lUiilmtl 1983 1982 1986 ''"" k^ 1984 ntnltiiii mulmu 1985 1986 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Dur ition of tmemplo}™ent Period Unemployment (thousands) F ercent di stributio i Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks Be as on for memployment: percent distributi >n Stat e progra ms Number of ks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Medi- Job losers Job leavers Eeentrants New entrants Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) 1 Weekly av erage, th ousands 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 7.9 6.8 51.7 51.6 58.7 58.4 51.8 49.8 11.7 11.2 7.9 7.7 9.6 10.6 25.2 25.4 22.3 22.5 25.6 27.1 11.4 11.9 11.1 11.3 13.0 12.5 3,350 3,047 4,061 3,396 2,476 2,616 488 460 583 438 377 397 3,837 3,410 4,594 3,775 2,561 2,692 15.4 15.7 15.4 7.0 6.9 6.9 49.1 50.0 48.8 11.1 9.9 10.9 27.2 27.2 27.6 12.7 12.9 12.8 2,535 2,560 2,564 380 382 391 2,227 2,468 2,884 14.9 15.3 14.4 14.3 14.4 15.2 15.0 15.8 15.6 15.2 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.5 6.6 7.3 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.0 48.0 48.7 50.3 48.1 50.3 51.2 48.3 47.6 49.0 48.8 12.7 11.7 11.9 13.2 11.4 12.0 12.7 12.2 12.6 12.2 26.3 26.8 26.0 26.1 25.9 24.4 27.2 27.8 25.7 27.3 13.0 12.8 11.8 12.6 12.4 12.5 11.8 12.4 12.7 11.7 2,591 2,610 2,654 2,612 2,666 2,681 2,698 2,705 2,691 2,596 370 392 393 380 382 381 380 387 370 354 3,370 3,295 3,144 2,799 2,556 2,474 2,632 2,486 2,334 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 43.1 41.7 36.4 33.3 39.2 42 .1 32.3 30.7 31.0 27.4 28.7 30.2 13.8 13.6 16.0 15.4 12.9 12.3 10.7 14.0 16.6 23.9 19.1 15.4 11.9 13.7 15.6 20.0 18.2 15.6 1985: Oct Nov Dec 8,301 8,161 8,023 41.6 42.7 42.1 30.8 30.2 30.7 12.8 11.0 12.1 14.8 16.1 15.1 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct 7,831 8,527 8,419 8,342 8,554 8,443 8,190 8,027 8,329 8,242 42.4 41.8 42.3 42.9 42.8 40.2 41.7 42.3 40.8 31.3 30.8 31.1 31.8 31.6 32.2 30.6 29.4 30.4 31.6 12.4 13.5 13.0 11.9 12.4 12.3 13.1 13.9 14.0 13.7 13.4 13.1 15.3 14.6 14.9 15.5 15.2 1 41.8 13.4 13.4 11.4 Includes State (50 States, District of Coiumbia, Puerto Rico, anc Virgin Is ands), ex servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs Also inC' udes Fede ral and S ate extended benefit programs. Does not include F deral supplemen ,al compen sation pro Tarn. 6.5 6.9 8.7 10.1 Source : Departir ent of Lai or (Bureai of Labor Statistics anc Employment and Trair ing Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 298,000 in October. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 24 100 .-"'- ^-——•_-——"" .**" 22 SERVICES .---^ -_--|r"\ ~s^~ —\ 90 , ^•' — \--" ..-- 20 ALL NONAGRICUL TURAL ES TABLISHMEr> TS ^ __. 80 — . —.--" _ 18 RETAIL TRADE 1 — "" 70 16 1--T"" SER\'ICE-PRODUC:ING INDUSTRIES 60 — 14 |i|lllllllll 40 GOVERNMEr- T Illllllllll 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 h 1 ^^- ^r^~~ r^~\ iii mini ii HIM|ll||||||||||ii|ll llllll||l|| 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i( III Illllll^ lyiUUIIIII —1 6 CONSTRUCTIO •4 V ~ — GOC5DS-PRODUC ING INDUSTRIES 30 *" "~ MANHFATTIIRI sir, ""X. 18 ^~ ^ iiiii!iiiii|iiiiilinii 20 50 \ 'T*~**^ 4 —1—^—" 2 ylWllWL Illllllllll Illllllllll — .—. 1 —•— \ Imilmii 20 1982 1983 Illllllllll Illllllllll l l l l l l l M I U 1985 1984 1982 1986 1983 1984 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Illllllllll 1985 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 seasonally adjusted] Period 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 f i T otal nonagricultural employment Se rvice-produ ring industn es Goods-] reducing in dus tries M anufacturin g Total 2 C rtn onstruction Total Durable goo s Nondurable goods Total Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Ketau trade Government Finance, insurance, and real estate Services Total Federal 89,823 90,406 91,156 89,566 90,200 94,496 97,614 26,461 25,658 25,497 23,813 23,334 24,727 24,930 4,463 4,346 4,188 3,905 3,948 4,383 4,687 21,040 20,285 20,170 18,781 18,434 19,378 19,314 12,760 12,187 12,109 11,039 10,732 11,505 11,516 8,280 8,098 8,061 7,741 7,702 7,873 7,798 63,363 64,748 65,659 65,753 66,866 69,769 72,684 5,136 5,146 5,165 5,082 4,954 5,159 5,242 5,204 5,275 5,358 5,278 5,268 5,555 5,740 14,989 15,035 15,189 15,179 15,613 16,545 17,360 4,975 5,160 5,298 5,341 5,468 5,689 5,953 17,112 17,890 18,619 19,036 19,694 20,797 21,974 15,947 16,241 16,031 15,837 15,869 16,024 16,415 2,773 2,866 2,772 2,739 2,774 2,807 2,875 1985: Oct 98,428 Nov .... 98,666 Dec 98,910 24,903 24,931 24,977 4,754 4,765 4,787 19,236 19,259 19,289 11,447 11,453 11,461 7,789 7,806 7,828 73,525 73,735 73,933 5,260 5,272 5,277 5,796 5,796 5,809 17,543 17,589 17,622 6,038 6,070 6,095 22,313 22,415 22,501 16,575 16,593 16,629 2,895 2,904 2,913 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May.... June .. July.... Aug r.. Sept r.. Oct "... 25,101 25,038 24,945 25,038 24,965 24,854 24,869 24,888 24,850 24,882 4,901 4,864 4,838 4,972 4,974 4,947 4,980 5,012 5,008 5,010 19,303 19,294 19,255 19,245 19,201 19,135 19,121 19,123 19,099 19,126 11,466 11,455 11,418 11,415 11,378 11,307 11,294 11,302 11,275 11,290 7,837 7,839 7,837 7,830 7,823 7,828 7,827 7,821 7,824 7,836 74,195 74,391 74,539 74,745 74,953 74,989 75,236 75,395 75,598 75,864 5,286 5,277 5,280 5,266 5,265 5,167 5,288 5,255 5,309 5,314 5,830 5,843 5,841 5,864 5,872 5,829 5,849 5,863 5,858 5,871 17,734 17,795 17,828 17,851 17,911 17,944 17,992 18,030 18,030 18,109 6,123 6,157 6,184 6,228 6,261 6,295 6,334 6,364 6,383 6,399 22,585 22,638 22,707 22,825 22,924 23,072 23,176 23,255 23,275 23,368 16,637 16,681 16,699 16,711 16,720 16,682 16,597 16,628 16,743 16,803 2,918 2,918 2,923 2,914 2,899 2,875 2,866 2,875 2,899 2,895 99,296 99,429 99,484 99,783 99,918 99,843 100,105 100,283 100,448 100,746 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial dis- 14 putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. * Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAli INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] iAverage weekly Average gr oss hourly earn ings hours Period Manufa cturing Total private nonagricultural ' Total 1978 1979 1980 1981 35.8 35.7 35.3 35.2 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: Got Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug r Sepf Oct" 34.8 35.0 35.2 34.9 34.9 34.8 34.9 35.0 34.9 34.9 34.8 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.7 34.6 Total private nonagncultural ' Overtime 40.4 40.2 3.6 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.6 39.7 39.8 38.9 40.1 40.7 40.5 40.7 40.7 40.9 40.8 40.7 40.7 40.7 40.7 40.6 40.6 40.8 40.8 40.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.4 Manufacturing $6.17 6.70 7.27 7.99 8.49 8.83 9.19 9.53 9.61 9.63 9.68 9.65 9.68 9.70 9.68 9.72 9.71 9.73 9.76 9.74 9.78 $5.69 6.16 6.66 7.25 7.68 8.02 8.32 8.57 8.63 8.65 8.70 8.68 8.71 8.73 8.72 8.73 8.74 8.73 8.77 8.77 8.82 Adjuste d hourly earnin ;s index — total private nonagnc altural 2 Percent chang e from a year earlie r 4 5 Ind ex, 1977 == 100 1977 dollars 3 Current dollars 108.2 116.8 127.3 138.9 148.5 155.4 160.3 165.2 166.2 166.8 167.7 167.3 168.2 168.5 168.4 168.7 169.2 168.9 169.3 169.6 170.3 Current dollars 100.5 97.4 93.5 92.6 93.4 94.9 94.6 94.1 94.0 93.9 94.0 93.5 94.4 95.1 95.4 95.4 95.2 95.1 95.1 95.0 95.3 8.2 7.9 9.0 9.1 6.9 4.6 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.5 1977 dollars 0.5 -3.1 -4.0 1.0 .9 1.6 -.3 .5 .1 ^ -.5 g -.2 .9 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.1 .6 1.3 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Percent change from a year earlier, total private n<magricultural 5 Avera *e gross weekly ea rnings Period Total ]mvate nonagnc ultural ' Current dollars 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug r Sept r Oct" $203.70 219.91 235.10 255.20 267.26 280.70 292.86 299.09 301.19 301.02 303.63 303.80 303.98 304.68 303.46 303.80 303.28 302.93 305.20 304.32 305.17 Manufacturing Construction Retail trade Current dollars 1977 dollars 3 $189.31 183.41 172.74 170.13 168.09 171.26 172.78 170.42 170.45 169.49 170.20 169.72 170.58 171.94 171.93 171.83 170.67 170.57 171.46 170.49 170.68 $249.27 269.34 288.62 318.00 330.26 354.08 374.03 385.97 391.13 391.94 395.91 393.72 393.98 394.79 393.98 395.60 394.23 395.04 398.21 397.39 397.07 1 4 2 8 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing. Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners Lnd clerical workers (on a 1977 = 100 base). 1977 dollars Current dollars $318.69 342.99 367.78 399.26 426.82 442.97 458.51 464.09 467.31 461.52 461.28 470.40 448.59 450.06 465.22 464.25 461.15 463.76 467.37 468.61 470.25 $130.20 138.62 147.38 158.03 163.85 171.05 174.33 174.64 174.63 174.92 175.78 175.51 175.51 176.09 174.91 174.91 174.60 175.20 176.08 176.95 176.64 7.8 8.0 6.9 8.5 4.7 5.0 4.3 2.1 2.7 2.3 2.5 3.1 2.5 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.6 0.2 -3.1 -5.8 1.5 -1.2 1.9 .9 1.4 -.2 -1.1 -1.1 -.6 .5 .4 .9 .7 -.2 .5 .6 -.0 .4 Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places. Based on seasonally unadjusted data. 3 65-498 0 - 8 6 - 2 Source; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output pe r hour of all pe rsons Outp u t 1 Compens ation per hou r 3 Hours of all perso ns 2 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector 1978 1979 100.8 99.6 100.8 99.3 105.8 107.9 106.0 107.9 104.9 108.3 105.1 108.7 108.5 119.1 108.6 118.9 100.8 99.4 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 99.3 100.7 100.3 103.0 105.3 98.8 99.8 99.2 102.4 104.3 106.7 108.9 105.5 109.9 118.8 106.7 108.5 104.9 110.1 118.8 107.5 108.2 105.2 106.7 112.8 108.0 108.7 105.7 107.5 114.0 131.5 143.7 154.9 161.5 168.1 131.3 143.6 154.8 161.5 167.9 1985 106.4 104.8 122.7 122.5 115.3 116.9 175.3 1982: TV 101.0 99.7 105.0 104.2 103.9 104.5 1983: I 101.9 103.5 103.0 103.8 100.9 102.7 102.9 103.3 106.2 109.2 110.8 113.6 105.8 109.2 111.4 114.1 104.2 105.5 107.5 109.4 104.8 106.3 108.3 110.5 1984: I 104.9 105.6 105.5 105.5 103.9 104.6 104.4 104.3 116.9 119.0 119.5 120.2 116.9 119.1 119.5 120.2 111.4 112.7 113.3 114.0 1985: I 105.7 106.4 107.3 106.4 104.4 104.9 105.4 104.5 121.3 122.3 123.5 123.8 121.1 122.1 123.3 123.6 107.3 107.4 107.4 105.6 105.7 105.8 125.3 125.4 126.2 125.1 125.3 126.2 Period Unit labor costs Real com pensation 4 per h our Implic t price defla tor 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 100.9 99.2 107.6 119.5 107.7 119.7 107.3 117.0 107.0 116.5 96.7 95.7 97.3 98.2 98.1 96.6 95.7 97.2 98.2 98.0 132.5 142.7 154.5 156.8 159.7 132.9 144.0 156.0 157.7 161.0 127.6 139.8 127.8 148.1 153.0 158.5 140.3 149.2 154.3 159.3 174.6 98.8 98.4 164.8 166.7 163.0 164.6 158.3 158.2 97.9 97.8 156.8 158.7 150.2 151.4 159.9 160.9 161.5 163.6 159.9 160.9 161.7 163.4 98.8 98.4 97.7 98.0 98.8 98.4 97.8 97.9 156.8 155.5 156.8 157.7 158.5 156.6 157.1 158.2 151.2 152.3 153.4 155.2 152.5 153.6 155.0 156.2 112.5 113.8 114.5 115.2 165.9 167.1 169.0 170.6 165.6 166.9 168.7 170.4 98.1 97.9 98.1 98.2 97.9 97.8 98.0 98.1 158.2 158.3 160.2 161.7 159.4 159.5 161.5 163.3 156.7 157.7 159.0 160.3 157.2 158.4 160.0 161.4 114.8 115.0 115.2 116.4 116.0 116.4 116.9 118.2 172.3 174.5 176.4 178.0 172.1 174.0 175.4 177.0 98.4 98.7 99.1 99.0 98.2 98.4 98.5 98.4 163.1 164.0 164.4 167.3 164.8 165.9 166.3 169.3 161.4 162.6 163.4 164.6 162.7 164.1 165.2 166.2 116.8 116.7 117.4 118.5 118.5 119.3 179.1 180.4 181.7 178.3 179.3 180.4 99.2 100.3 100.4 98.8 99.8 99.7 167.0 168.0 169.1 168.8 169.6 170.5 165.3 165.8 167.2 167.1 167.5 168.9 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 197 7 = 100; ( uarterly c ata seasor ally adjus ted n m IV n m rv n m IV 1986: I n mr.... Pe •cent chan ge; quarte rly data at seasonal] y adjusted annual rates 1978 1979 0.8 -1.2 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1.4 -.4 2.7 2.3 £ 0.8 -1.6 5.8 2.0 6.0 1.9 4.9 3.2 5.1 3.5 8.5 9.7 8.6 9.5 0.8 -1.4 0.9 -1.6 7.6 11.1 7.7 11.2 7.3 9.0 7.0 8.9 -.4 1.0 -.6 3.3 1.8 -1.1 2.1 -3.1 4.2 8.1 -1.2 1.7 -3.3 4.9 8.0 -.8 .7 -2.8 1.5 5.7 -.7 .7 -2.7 1.6 6.0 10.5 9.2 7.8 4.2 4.1 10.5 9.4 7.8 4.3 4.0 -2.7 -1.0 1.6 1.0 -.1 2.7 -.9 1.5 1.1 -.3 10.9 7.7 8.3 1.5 1.8 11.0 8.3 8.4 1.1 2.1 9.0 9.6 5.9 3.3 3.5 9.7 9.7 6.3 3.5 3.2 2.6 4.3 4.0 .7 .4 3.2 3.5 2.9 3.3 4.5 5.1 2.9 3.4 1.5 2.6 2.4 3.0 1985 1.0 .5 3.3 1982: IV 3.0 2.4 5 39 6.1 -1.6 2.8 5.0 7.3 .8 1.3 4.9 11.7 5.9 10.4 6.3 13.4 8.5 9.8 1.0 5.3 7.7 7.3 1.2 5.7 7.6 8.4 3.9 2.6 1.6 5.3 4.4 2.3 2.0 4.4 3.7 -1.6 -2.6 1.1 4.1 1.9 -2.2 .1 .1 -3.3 3.3 2.4 -.6 -4.7 1.2 3.0 2.5 3.1 2.8 4.8 2.9 2.8 3.7 3.1 4.4 2.6 -.3 -.1 2.4 2.9 -.7 — .4 12.2 7.5 1.7 2.5 10.2 7.7 1.6 2.2 7.4 4.8 2.1 2.6 7.6 4.7 2.3 2.6 5.7 2.8 4.6 3.8 5.4 3.2 4.3 4.2 .5 -.8 .8 .1 .3 -.4 .4 .5 1.2 .2 5.0 3.9 3.0 .3 5.1 4.6 4.0 2.6 3.4 3.2 2.7 3.1 4.0 3.7 .9 2.7 3.4 -3.2 .3 1.8 2.2 -3.5 3.6 3.3 4.1 1.0 3.2 3.0 4.0 1.0 2.6 .6 .7 4.3 2.9 1.2 1.8 4.6 4.2 5.1 4.4 3.8 3.9 4.6 3.2 3.7 1.0 1.0 1.8 -.5 .7 .5 .7 3.3 2.4 1.0 7.2 3.6 2.7 1.0 7.4 2.7 3.0 1.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 2.6 2.4 3.3 .5 .2 4.3 .5 .2 4.7 .3 2.5 5.1 .6 3.0 1.4 -.2 2.3 .8 .1 2.8 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.1 2.3 2.3 1.0 4.5 .3 -.7 2.3 2.7 -1.2 1.8 2.2 1.8 1.2 3.4 2.3 1.0 3.3 1983: I n in IV 1984: I n m IV 1985: I n m IV 1986: I nr m .... 1 3.0 -1.2 2.2 -3.4 -3.5 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1982 dollars. Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plhm. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed. 2 16 4 -.6 1.6 4.0 2 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers. 5 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are hased on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes hased on indexes shown here. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production was unchanged in October, following a rise of 0.1 percent in September. The index for October was 1.3 percent above its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) 220 INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) 140 TOTAL INDUSTRIA L PRODUC riON FINAL P RODUCTS 200 rx_~— .,"—' 120 s*'' 180 ,^^ 100 — 160 < ^ V 1 1 M i i 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 | | | | 1 1 1 1 T IM 1 M 1 1| 1 1 I 1 11 M 1 1M 1 M r^\— 120 ''~~J\ ,''' / -i' -'- 100 ^^^^^^^^— -^ 120 ,--—c ^^._^>'"" CONSUMER _ GOODS 100 // Illllllllll t t 111 1111 M 1 iiiiihiiii 1 1 1 1 I 1i I 1M ,S PER CENT* ^-| | 1 1 \ 1 1 t I 1 1l l l l l l l l l l 1 | | | II 1 M 1 I E1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 I! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 90 -MANUF/\CTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATIC N RATE 140 _ UTILITIE S ANDMINJING PROD UCTION 120 .~~. ^"^•^ ~"^^^ . | „-- NONDURA 3LE "^ BUSINESS EQUIPMENT s .-' X ION . .-•- '"- 140 MANU ACTURINC; PRODUCT DURABLE -- — —— -^^faf ~x-C_ .3: ~ : ^—•j^j»i»-«^ DE FENSE AND SPACE EQUIPMENT - .s^ UTILITIES "X , "*~NO\_^ ~^ 100 in nllllll iiiiiliin i 1982 1983 •—- 80 s~* \ f^"^^" Y<** A >-'—^*y_ •''/^ \~'-Z/ | — 70 ""^ \ " ^ — M1N1NGJ | | ( 1111t M1 1 M 11 11 1 111 II 1 II 1 1 M 1 1 1984 1985 1986 60 | f t M 1 1 1 1 11 1982 Illllllllll 1983 M 1 M 1 1 II t 1 1 f 1 1 1 1 1 1! 1 I 1985 1984 •SEASONALLY AD USTED SOURCE: BOARD C}F GOVERNORS O THE FEDERAL RES RVE SYSTEM 1 I 1 E 11 11 M 1 1986 COUNCIL OF EC 3NOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Total indu trial produ ction Period Index, 1977 = 100 1977'proportion 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July r Aug r . Sepf Oct" 1 Output as percent of capacity. 100.0 106.5 110.7 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.4 123.8 123.6 124.8 125.6 126.2 125.3 123.6 124.7 124.2 124.2 124.9 125.1 125.2 125.2 Industry pro .uction indexe. , 1977 = 100 Capacity utilization rate, p ?rcent * Manufacturing Percent change from year earlier 6.5 3.9 1.9 2.2 -7.1 5.9 11.2 2.0 1.2 1.7 2.3 2.9 1.7 .2 1.2 .5 .5 1.2 .5 .8 1.3 Muling Durable Total 84.21 107.1 111.5 108.2 110.5 102.2 110.2 123.4 126.4 126.3 127.8 128.2 129.4 128.7 127.2 128.7 128.2 128.3 129.2 129.5 129.5 129.5 49.10 108.2 113.9 109.1 111.1 99.9 107.7 124.2 127.3 126.7 128.2 128.7 129.5 128.7 126.8 128.1 127.0 126.2 127.4 127.5 127.6 127.4 Utilities Nondurable 35.11 105.5 108.2 107.0 109.7 105.5 113.7 122.3 125.1 125.8 127.2 127.5 129.3 128.7 127.7 129.6 129.9 131.2 131.7 132.4 132.2 132.4 9.83 103.6 106.4 112.4 117.5 109.3 102.9 111.1 108.8 106.9 106.9 107.4 108.1 105.1 103.0 101.0 99.8 98.9 97.1 96.8 95.8 95.6 5.96 103.1 105.9 107.3 107.1 104.8 105.2 110.7 111.9 111.8 111.9 114.8 112.5 109.7 109.3 109.4 108.5 108.6 109.7 108.3 111.1 112.1 Manufacturing Industrial materials 84.2 84.6 79.3 86.3 87.1 81.1 81.1 71.7 75.3 82.0 80.2 79.1 79.4 80.3 80.1 79.6 78.5 78.7 78.1 78.0 78.3 78.0 78.1 77.9 78.3 70.3 74.0 80.5 80.1 79.4 80.1 80.2 80.8 80.2 79.1 79.9 79.4 79.3 79.7 79.8 79.6 79.4 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1977=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Mate rials Produc ts Internlediate pro( ucts Final product s G itnsumer go ads ]Equipment Period Defense Total Total Durable goods Nondurable goods 18.63 104.5 105.4 108.1 109.3 108.3 113.3 120.1 122.9 19.25 110.3 120.4 124.7 129.9 120.2 121.7 139.6 145.4 14.34 112.2 124.7 125.1 127.6 113.6 115.4 134.2 139.6 123.5 125.3 126.3 126.6 125.8 125.3 127.7 128.1 128.1 128.4 128.6 128.1 128.1 144.9 147.0 146.4 138.3 140.8 140.0 141.5 140.5 137.7 138.6 137.9 136.6 137.9 139.2 139.7 139.6 1977 proportion 44.77 26.52 6.89 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: 106.9 111.0 112.2 115.2 109.5 114.7 127.3 131.1 131.0 133.1 133.2 133.9 132.8 130.6 132.1 131.6 131.1 132.0 132.5 132.9 132.7 104.3 103.9 102.7 104.1 101.4 109.3 118.0 120.2 103.7 99.9 88.4 89.7 82.9 98.5 112.2 112.9 112.3 115.4 115.3 116.0 116.6 112.4 115.9 113.8 114.3 116.3 115.5 117.0 115.1 1986: Get Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July r Aug r Sept r. Oct" 1 120.5 122.7 123.3 123.8 123.3 121.8 124.5 124.3 124.4 125.2 125.1 125.1 124.6 and Total ' 147.5 145.4 142.3 142.3 141.2 140.0 141.0 142.4 143.1 143.5 Business Total space equipment 3.67 101.2 105.6 115.4 119.8 133.0 143.1 156.4 170.6 174.8 177.2 178.5 178.7 176.3 176.2 178.0 178.0 178.4 179.5 181.0 182.4 183.6 12.94 106.9 110.8 106.9 107.3 101.7 111.2 124.7 130.0 131.2 131.8 132.0 134.2 133.4 133.3 134.5 135.1 137.0 137.3 137.8 137.2 137.7 Construction supplies 5.95 106.9 108.7 100.6 98.6 88.3 100.6 114.0 118.3 120.2 120.5 119.8 124.0 122.6 122.6 123.6 123.5 124.1 124.0 125.1 124.8 125.2 Busi- Total Energy 42.28 11.69 105.9 110.3 105.3 107.7 96.7 102.8 114.2 114.2 113.4 113.9 115.4 101.1 104.1 105.5 104.7 101.2 98.4 103.9 103.4 supplies 6.99 106.9 112.7 112.3 114.7 113.1 120.3 133.8 140.0 140.5 141.5 142.4 142.9 142.6 142.5 143.8 145.0 147.9 148.6 148.7 147.7 115.5 114.8 113.3 113.8 113.0 113.1 113.6 113.2 113.5 113.5 101.5 101.8 104.5 103.0 102.1 101.4 100.4 100.5 100.8 99.9 98.3 98.9 98.5 Includes rigs and prefabs, not shown separately. [1977=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] No ndurable inanufactui es Durable ma nufactures Transp*>rtation equipment Primary metals Period Total 1977 proportion 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: 1986: Oct Nov Dee Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July r. Aug r Sept r Oct" 5.33 107.0 108.5 90.4 95.0 65.8 73.0 82.3 80.5 81.9 82.9 81.7 82.4 80.3 76.3 78.1 74.8 71.4 73.6 73.4 72.8 73.7 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 Iron and steel 3.49 107.5 108.0 86.3 92.5 57.5 66.1 73.4 70.4 72.4 73.9 71.6 72.2 69.5 64.3 65.6 60.2 58.3 61.7 60.8 59.2 Fabricated metal products 6.46 105.7 109.4 101.8 101.6 86.6 89.1 102.6 107.3 107.9 107.6 108.2 109.2 108.5 107.6 108.2 106.5 106.6 105.7 105.8 105.9 106.0 Nonelectrical machinery 9.54 111.7 122.6 123.3 129.8 115.6 118.3 141.8 145.3 141.7 144.8 146.2 144.9 143.9 141.7 140.8 141.3 140.4 142.6 143.0 141.3 142.0 Electrical machinery 7.15 112.9 125.7 130.3 134.1 128.4 143.8 170.5 168.4 164.2 166.9 168.7 166.1 164.8 165.2 166.8 166.0 163.2 166.8 167.1 166.8 167.3 Total 9.13 106.3 108.3 96.9 95.1 87.6 99.2 112.2 121.4 123.3 124.8 124.0 128.2 127.5 122.6 126.2 124.1 125.1 125.6 125.1 127.8 125.2 Motor vehicles and parts 5.25 104.6 95.9 71.1 71.6 66.8 85.8 104.4 111.5 111.4 112.6 111.4 116.5 116.4 108.1 112.6 108.7 110.6 111.2 108.2 112.3 107.2 Lumber and products Appar- el products 3.30 2.79 102.4 102.0 92.9 90.1 82.8 100.2 109.1 113.4 116.2 115.0 116.1 120.5 120.3 120.7 121.3 121.6 120.9 120.8 123.1 103.1 98.3 97.3 96.1 87.3 95.3 102.7 100.9 102.1 103.8 104.5 105.5 102.8 102.8 103.1 102.6 101.7 102.5 102.2 103.0 Printing and publishing Chemicals and products 4.54 107.8 112.7 115.1 118.6 120.2 129.8 146.5 153.9 154.5 156.8 157.6 160.9 156.7 157.8 161.6 161.9 164.0 165.4 165.0 164.0 164.5 106.8 111.4 106.4 112.6 103.8 114.0 121.6 127.1 127.3 128.2 128.1 131.7 132.0 130.2 132.8 131.5 134.2 134.1 134.4 134.7 8.05 Foods 7.96 104.3 106.7 111.4 113.7 114.9 120.4 126.9 130.2 129.4 131.5 132.1 132.0 132.9 132.2 133.1 133.7 134.6 134.3 135.4 134.8 NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Constructio n contracts 3 / Private Total new Period construction expenditures Resi .ential Total Commercial and industrial z New housing Total i Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1977 = 100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) I illions of dollars 1978 244.4 279.2 327.2 355.6 179.0 201.5 194.0 204.4 193.6 228.5 272.0 292.8 110.4 117.2 101.1 100.0 85.4 126.6 155.1 158.8 374.0 357.6 365.6 373.4 373.9 368.0 373.9 374.5 375.4 376.6 381.4 380.3 386.5 312.0 294.4 300.6 305.4 305.7 298.9 303.3 302.6 304.6 304.2 308.8 306.9 312.8 174.8 158.2 161.8 163.4 164.7 165.6 170.5 172.5 174.5 174.3 176.5 176.4 178.7 224.7 250.3 249.0 257.8 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug ' Sept r Oct" 86.2 90.1 70.4 70.2 57.7 95.7 115.1 116.0 30.7 42.0 46.7 55.0 58.7 53.8 68.6 82.7 37.9 42.3 46.2 49.4 49.5 48.1 48.2 51.3 45.6 48.8 55.0 84.1 85.0 88.2 88.4 87.5 81.4 81.8 78.7 78,3 79.2 81.2 79.6 81.2 53.0 51.2 50.6 53.5 53.5 51.8 51.0 51.3 51.8 50.8 51.1 50.9 52.9 62.1 63.2 64.9 68.0 68.3 69.2 70.6 71.9 70.8 72.4 72.5 73.3 73.7 114.0 121.0 108.0 112.0 111.0 138.0 53.3 50.8 50.7 55.2 62.8 150.0 161.0 690 756 955 1,064 Annual rates Annual rates 117.2 117.5 118.7 122.8 124.7 126.5 129.4 132.4 135.2 137.0 138.0 138.4 141.2 1 Includes the following categories of private construction not shown separately; residential improvements, railroads, electric light and power, gas, petroleum pipelines, and farm nonresidential. 2 Includes hotels and motels. 977 1,059 904 919 168 162 162 154 174 163 186 171 169 171 168 158 170 1,104 1,111 951 848 941 840 1,011 921 911 877 949 970 861 3 F, W. Dodge series. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, P. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New priv ate homes New private housing units Period Units started, by type of structure Total 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1 unit 2,020.3 1,745.1 1,292.2 1,084.2 1,062.2 1,703.0 1,749.5 1,741.8 1,433.3 1,194.1 852.2 705.4 662.6 1,067.6 1,084.2 1,072.4 1,653 1,784 1,654 1,882 2,034 2,001 1,960 2,019 1,853 1,852 1,782 1,795 1,652 1,648 1,006 1,118 1,006 1,098 1,335 1,202 1,221 1,242 1,241 1,230 1,137 1,186 1,100 1,106 2-4 units 5 or more units 125.0 122.0 109.5 91.1 80.0 113.5 121.4 462.0 429.0 93.4 330.5 287.7 319.6 522.0 544.0 576.1 Units authorized 1,800.5 1,551.8 1,190.6 985.5 1,000.5 1,605.2 1,681.8 1,733.3 Units completed Homes sold 1,867.5 1,870.8 1,501.6 1,265.7 1,005.5 1,390.3 1,652.2 1,703.3 817 709 545 436 412 623 1,778 1,541 1,721 1,762 1,778 1,725 1,806 1,693 1,829 1,620 r 1,761 1,769 1,730 681 637 722 729 639 688 Vacancy rate Homes for sale at end of period * 3 414 398 336 272 251 300 356 349 housing units (percent/ 2 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.3 5.7 5.9 6.5 Seasonal y adjusted annu al rates 1985: Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug ' Sept ' Oct* 85 80 76 83 107 115 84 79 83 80 81 89 56 80 562 586 572 701 1,846 1,703 1,668 1,839 592 684 655 698 529 542 564 520 496 462 1,861 1,808 1,834 1,885 1,788 1,792 1,759 1,673 1,603 1,565 1 Seasonally adjusted. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. I with earlier data. 3 New series beginning March 1979. 2 tginning 1979 not strictly comparable 735 741 924 880 787 722 695 624 690 350 353 353 349 352 352 338 336 336 340 349 354 357 6.8 6.7 6.9 7.3 7.5 NOTE.—Beginning 1984, units authorized are for 17,000 permit-issuing places and for 1978-83 data are for 16,000 places. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturing and trade sales rose 2.9 percent in September and inventories fell $2.0 billion. According to advance data, retail sales fell 5.0 percent in October following an increase of 5.3 percent in September. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 600 200 190 — _ 500 " ^C " 400 ff* 170 160 150 — . - ^' 130 -'-r" \ W ANUFACTUF ING A ND TRADE S ALES :*-—-->,., - • —_— 1 "~1 MA NUFACTURIr-4G AND Tl ADE INVENT ORIES 450 350 . 300 — \ -~ •\ -- '""'\ "' — N./ 90 -.'^--'" 250 /-r ,"• /-^ R ETAIL INVEN TORIES • 110 - -n RETAIL SAL ;s -•''' — 70 1 1111 | 11 1 ! 1 1 1M 1 111 ! t 1 1 [ 1 It 1 1 1 1 I I 1 1 1M 111 1 11 1 1 111 1!i: M RATIC * 200 1.80 - INVENTORY-SALES RATIO 1.60 150 - - 1.40 ^^, \—. RETA L ^ r--. . 1 I1 I 11 M 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 t 1 1 1 11 1 M 111111t 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 11 1984 1985 1983 1982 1.00 M I 1 | | 1 M II <KU||MM Mlllllllll 1986 1983 1982 1984 Sales Inventories 3 1985 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 17 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Inventory-s ales ratio 4 Re tail Wholesaie Inventories 3 Sales 2 Period 2 _ MANUFACTURI MG AND TRADE 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Manufact iring and trax e 1 /-* ,'~*^—^ -•«... ,'—^ 1.20 100., - Sales 2 Inventories Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Manufacturing Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally idjusted 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 260,805 298,334 328,058 356,919 344,656 368,724 410,737 424,091 399,608 451,460 494,105 528,105 509,555 520,328 575,098 583,148 66,669 79,472 93,704 102,013 96,290 100,424 113,404 114,494 86,405 99,262 113,478 118,259 118,149 120,265 131,544 135,940 Sept r Oct Nov Dec 427,201 ""425,834 431,326 432,797 579,519 581,516 582,381 583,148 114,473 113,675 115,762 116,852 134,496 134,810 134,831 135,940 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug ' Sept" Get" 431,713 426,854 420,230 428,455 421,613 425,475 427,473 429,310 441,584 584,968 585,176 588,178 588,599 586,727 588,908 591,895 590,141 588,137 115,648 113,380 112,495 114,608 109,870 112,873 114,375 114,482 117,300 136,624 136,561 137,056 137,083 137,506 138,793 139,753 139,742 139,907 1985: 1 2 3 See page 21 for manufacturing. Monthly average for year and total for month. Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. 20 r 118,499 114,930 115,433 116,861 117,349 117,200 116,684 117,715 118,675 118,960 119,804 121,523 r 128,003 121,587 43,863 49,397 55,049 59,688 61,279 64,817 68,939 71,645 102,694 111,098 116,346 127,201 126,497 139,381 157,845 165,324 50,136 54,108 55,117 60,327 58,952 66,928 77,142 82,875 52,558 56,990 61,229 66,874 67,545 72,453 80,703 82,449 1.44 1.43 1.45 1.44 1.51 1.38 1.34 1.37 1.43 1.44 1.42 1.41 1.41 1.34 1.39 1.40 72,381 72,398 72,802 72,979 160,993 164,262 165,557 165,324 79,274 81,668 83,056 82,875 81,719 82,594 82,501 82,449 1.36 1.37 1.35 1.35 1.36 1.43 1.43 1.41 73,162 73,251 73,405 72,841 73,121 73,364 73,492 73,611 r 73, 487 73,679 167,987 169,379 171,551 172,158 170,869 171,705 173,529 172,926 171,656 84,755 85,863 88,132 88,263 87,198 88,281 90,271 89,380 86,810 83,232 83,516 83,419 83,895 83,671 83,424 83,258 83,546 84,846 1.35 1.37 1.40 1.37 1.39 1.38 1.38 1.37 ' 1.33 1.43 1.45 1.47 1.46 1.44 1.44 1.45 1.42 1.34 23,368 25,529 24,914 27,089 28,059 33,041 38,817 42,851 67,231 74,926 79,963 86,777 89,339 97,858 107,755 114,495 r 46,118 42,532 42,631 43,882 44,187 43,949 43,279 44,874 45,554 45,596 46,312 47,912 r 54,516 47,908 r 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In September, manufacturers' shipments and orders rose and inventories fell. In October, according to advance data, durable goods shipments rose and new orders fell. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 240 200 , SHIPME NTS •*^_— -^ _^o 160 120 — 1 360 320 — 740 — TOTAL 200 -_.. i~ - .-'-..s_.["-•' — ^-^\—"^i •—— 280 DU RABLE GOOC>S 80- , INVENlTORIES - _-'~': NOh>(DURABLE G JODS •— • ~"\" " . DU (ABLE GOO 35 ^ - - - _ . . _ - -,_ "V" NONDURABLE GC3ODS U i n l i i in 40 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) r~^~ NEWO RDERS 00 ----r--'" ^ ^-' 60 n ,i,l,,,,, _,=»•*•—" '~~-j -~- -\- .. .V--.. " ,,,,,, ,,,,,!,,,,, - -, NON )URABLE GC ODS 1 ! I I 1 1 t 1 ! 1 1 I [ 1 | ! 1 1 ! ! MM 40 ::iiilii,n INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO DU RABLE GOO IS s~ * , l t t t l ! f , t — TOTAL — 1983 1982 1984 1 1 ;1 : 1 Mi M 1 Tt 1 ! 1 1 M 1986 1986 1985 "SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNOL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Manufa cturers' shiprnents l It Manufacturers new orders i Manufa*3turers' inven tones 2 Durabl l goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Durable goods Total Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, nondefense Nondurable goods Manufacturers' unfilled orders 3 Manufacturers' inventory — shipments ratio 4 M llions of do lars, seaso lally adjust 3d 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 126,905 143,936 154,391 168,129 159,027 170,441 189,578 195,102 67,848 76,060 77,550 83,872 76,693 84,951 98,502 103,649 59,057 67,876 76,841 84,257 82,334 85,491 91,076 91,452 210,509 241,100 264,281 282,645 264,909 260,682 285,709 281,884 137,891 160,533 174,620 186,347 175,103 171,629 191,109 189,164 72,618 80,567 89,661 96,298 89,806 89,053 94,600 92,720 131,546 147,403 156,161 167,752 157,255 173,259 191,634 195,803 72,339 79,451 79,360 83,553 74,996 87,631 100,611 104,305 19,458 23,231 23,259 24,050 20,681 22,764 27,017 27,215 59,207 67,953 76,801 84,199 82,260 85,627 91,024 91,499 259,770 302,145 323,393 319,094 296,918 330,924 355,640 363,809 1.57 1.57 1.66 1.64 1.73 1.52 1.45 1.46 1985: Oct Nov Dec 197,229 200,131 199,084 106,479 107,007 105,777 90,750 93,124 93,307 282,444 281,993 281,884 190,508 190,284 189,164 91,936 91,709 92,720 195,381 196,865 201,213 104,495 103,796 107,531 27,092 25,788 30,566 90,886 93,069 93,682 364,946 361,680 363,809 1.43 1.41 1.42 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept" Oct" 198,716 196,274 191,051 196,132 193,068 193,642 193,294 193,305 196,281 105,631 105,545 102,693 106,592 103,672 104,553 104,980 104,154 r 106,027 106,740 93,085 90,729 88,358 89,540 89,396 89,089 88,314 89,151 90,254 280,357 279,236 279,571 279,358 278,352 278,410 278,613 277,473 276,574 188,518 187,644 188,333 188,031 187,637 187,148 186,858 186,045 186,102 91,839 91,592 91,238 91,327 90,715 91,262 91,755 91,428 90,472 201,133 198,559 192,996 193,151 192,122 191,795 194,560 192,836 199,399 108,194 107,545 104,682 103,747 102,624 102,730 106,220 103,845 r 108,723 102,233 24,288 28,637 26,540 26,179 26,145 26,421 27,387 26,325 r 28,222 26,130 92,939 91,014 88,314 89,404 89,498 89,065 88,340 88,991 90,676 366,226 368,511 370,456 367,475 366,529 364,682 365,948 365,479 368,597 1.41 1.42 1.46 1.42 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.41 1 2 3 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sal Book value, end of period. End of period. 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In October, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.3 percent, seasonally adjusted. The index for finished consumer foods rose 0.9 percent while the index for other finished consumer goods was unchanged. The index for capital equipment rose 0.5 percent. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) J40 INDEX, 1967 =100 (RATIO SCALE) 340 bEASONAUV ADJUSTS D FINISHED GOODS 320 C<.3NSUMER GOCDOS E)(CLUDING FOC)DS 300 280 \ '^ / ^ I-^l^-—' "^" ^f***^ r7 ^ _'•> t' N \ 180 wn 240 L>''~! -• ' //'' /* 220 tf'' 7 / '"' J t'"'^ / i s\S ,• / 300 260 ~ CONSUMER HOOUb /' )\CAPITALEQ JIPMENT ^ '' f's / " "" ip. <«^' .-/ x/cx r j / '\J //^_,-'' 260 r" \ \ *^ /~t s ^ / ~> . .y«-~£J3 --,.•_, ^/ v _^'^ TO "AL FINISHED GOODS ff 200 .'~' [j-rmiini 1978 IMI , I l l l l l l l II Illllll III I l l l l l l l l l 1980 1979 1982 1981 I l l l l l l l II 1 Illllllll 1983 1984 180 Ill M i l 1 1985 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF IABOR [1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Intern ediate ma terials Pirn shed goods Pinished goc ds excluding consumer foo(Is Period Total finished goods Consumer foods Total Foods and feeds ' Other Total Foodstuffs and feedstuffs Other 203.1 226.1 252.6 250.3 239.4 247.9 253.1 232.8 216.5 244.4 282.3 310.1 315.7 317.1 325.0 325.0 234.4 274.3 304.6 329.0 319.5 323.6 330.8 306.1 216.2 247.9 259.2 257.4 247.8 252.2 259.5 235.0 272.3 330.0 401.0 482.3 473.9 477.4 484.5 459.2 Total finished Consumer gc ods Nondurable Capital equipment Total Total Durable Cnide matenals consumer goods 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 195.9 217.7 247.0 269.8 280.7 285.2 291.1 293.7 207.2 226.2 239.5 253.6 259.3 261.8 273.3 271.2 190.7 213.3 247.8 273.3 285.8 290.8 294.8 299.0 186.7 211.5 250.8 276.5 287.8 291.4 294.1 297.3 166.9 183.2 206.2 218.6 226.7 233.1 236.8 241.5 200.0 231.3 283.9 319.6 333.6 335.3 337.3 339.3 199.2 216.5 239.8 264.3 279.4 287.2 294.0 300.5 194.9 217.9 248.9 271.3 281.0 284.6 290.3 291.8 215.6 242.2 280.3 306.0 310.4 312.3 320.0 318.7 1985: Get Nov Dec 294.4 296.4 298.3 270.8 273.7 276.5 300.1 301.7 303.3 298.0 300.0 301.9 243.0 243.8 243.6 339.3 342.3 346.0 302.7 303.4 303.8 292.1 294.5 296.7 317.5 318.6 319.9 229.4 232.3 233.9 324.0 325.0 326.2 302.2 308.0 307.0 231.0 240.8 239.7 455.4 453.1 452.4 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct 296.1 291.3 288.5 287.0 288.5 288.8 287.3 288.2 289.3 290.3 274.9 270.3 270.7 271.1 274.7 274.6 279.9 283.6 283.1 285.7 300.9 296.1 292.2 290.0 290.7 291.2 287.2 287.0 288.8 289.2 298.8 291.8 286.0 282.5 283.4 283.8 278.1 277.7 279.8 279.7 242.3 242.9 243.7 245.9 245.5 246.1 246.5 246.7 248.2 251.6 341.3 328.7 317.9 310.1 312.1 312.3 301.9 301.1 303.6 301.0 303.3 303.7 304.3 305.3 305.4 306.0 306.3 306.6 307.7 309.2 294.1 287.8 284.1 281.9 283.7 283.9 281.9 282.9 284.1 285.0 318.4 313.8 310.1 307.1 306.2 306.1 304.4 304.2 305.8 304.9 232.8 229.5 229.0 227.1 228.6 228.4 228.9 231.9 232.8 231.0 324.7 320.0 316.1 312.9 311.9 311.8 310.0 309.5 311.2 310.4 302.9 286.6 280.2 270.7 276.4 275.0 276.4 275.9 277.3 281.8 233.8 225.4 223.3 216.3 225.8 224.2 230.8 236.5 234.7 240.8 451.8 418.7 403.1 388.4 386.0 385.2 375.1 360.9 369.3 370.0 1 r Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 22 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In October, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted (0.1 percent not seasonally adjusted). The index was 1.5 percent above its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 340 340 320 320 300 300 280 280 260 260 240 240 220 220 200 200 I I II I I 180 1979 1978 II I I I I I I I 1980 I I II HIM 180 1983 1982 1981 1985 1984 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967 = 100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Hou sing Tr ansportation She Her Period All items 1 Total a Renters' 1982 = 100) Homeowners' costs (Dec. 1982=100) NSA Rel. imp.3 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct 1 100.0 195.4 217.4 246.8 272.4 289.1 298.4 311.1 322.2 325.5 326.6 327.4 328.4 327.5 326.0 325.3 326.3 327.9 328.0 328.6 330.2 330.5 Apparupkeep Total ' New cars Motor fuel 5.0 159.6 166.6 178.4 186.9 191.8 196.5 200.2 206.0 207.7 208.4 208.3 207.7 206.6 206.3 206.9 206.5 205.8 206.2 207.7 209.4 209.9 21.4 185.5 212.0 249.7 280.0 291.5 298.4 311.7 319.9 320.5 322.6 323.9 325.5 320.9 311.8 304.0 304.9 307.4 303.6 300.8 302.0 302.3 3.4 153.8 166.0 179.3 190.2 197.6 202.6 208.5 215.2 217.0 217.7 218.4 218.6 219.5 219.9 221.2 223.0 224.4 225.2 225.8 226.3 228.0 5.5 196.3 265.6 Medical care Ener- gy 2 All items less food, energy, and shelter NSA 18.5 211.4 234.5 254.6 274.6 285.7 291.7 302.9 309.8 311.1 313.2 315.2 315.9 313.8 314.1 315.0 316.4 316.7 319.5 322.5 323.9 325.0 37.9 202.8 227.6 263.3 293.5 314.7 323.1 336.5 349.9 353.3 355.2 356.2 357.1 356.8 357.5 358.5 358.2 360.1 360.2 361.1 361.9 361.8 22.3 210.4 239.7 281.7 314.7 337.0 344.8 361.7 382.0 387.9 390.5 391.9 393.3 394.8 397.3 400.7 401.0 401.8 403.6 404.8 406.7 408.3 7.3 103.0 108.6 115.4 117.5 118.2 118.5 118.8 119.2 119.8 121.1 121.2 121.7 122.5 122.7 123.2 123.6 14.4 102.5 107.3 113.1 114.9 115.7 116.2 116.6 117.0 118.0 118.9 119.1 119.1 119.6 119.9 120.6 121.1 Includes items not shown separately. Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc. also included through 1982. 3 Relative importance, December 1985. 2 Fuel Mainteand nance other and repairs utilities 0.5 233.0 256.4 285.7 314.4 334.1 346.3 359.2 368.9 368.5 372.7 373.7 379.1 379.6 367.5 367.6 367.1 366.6 369.2 376.4 376.2 379.0 8.1 216.0 239.3 278.6 319.2 350.8 370.3 387.3 393.6 393.7 395.4 396.5 397.2 392.4 388.4 385.7 382.3 388.9 383.4 383.6 381.8 377.1 369.1 410.9 389.4 376.4 370.7 373.8 374.3 377.4 379.4 380.1 357.2 314.8 279.5 286.4 295.0 275.5 262.7 269.2 262.9 6.5 219.4 239.7 265.9 294.5 328.7 357.3 379.5 403.1 410.9 413.0 415.7 417.5 420.4 424.5 427.2 429.8 432.8 435.0 437.4 440.1 442.6 11.3 220.4 275.9 361.1 410.0 416.1 419.3 423.6 426.5 425.8 428.4 430.3 430.8 414.3 387.5 365.2 366.2 374.8 359.6 352.7 355.0 347.3 48.0 179.1 191.5 208.3 228.1 245.6 258.4 271.2 281.6 284.1 285.4 286.2 287.5 288.0 288.6 289.1 289.4 290.4 291.3 292.1 292.7 293.9 NOTE.—Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Chs nge from pr seeding perk d Change from 3 month s earlier, ann aal rate Change from 6 month s earlier, ann lal rate Constim r goods Consume r goods Consum r goods r Period Total finished goods Excluding foods Foods Capital equipment Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Cha ige, Dec. o Dec., N 3A 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 9.2 12.8 11.8 7.1 3.7 .6 1.7 1.8 11.7 7.4 7.5 8.5 17.5 1.4 8.5 4.2 -.8 .8 2.0 2.1 2.3 3.5 .5 7.8 7.9 11.1 8.8 11.4 9.2 3.9 1.9 1.8 2.7 14.2 13.5 9.2 4.0 1.6 2.1 .9 Oh ange, mon th to mont b 1985: Oct NOT Dec 1988: Jan Fob Mar Apr May June r July ' Aug Sept ' Oct 0.9 .7 .6 1.7 1.1 1.0 0.6 1.0 0.1 .7 2 .1 4.2 9.2 -0.1 7.2 16.0 — .7 -1.6 -1.0 -.5 .5 .1 -.5 .3 -.6 -1.7 .1 .1 1.3 -.0 1.9 1.3 -.2 .9 -1.0 -2.3 -2.0 — 1.2 .3 .1 o 2.3 -6.7 -12.5 -11.7 -3.8 .4 .4 -.4 .7 4.2 6.2 -4.9 -8.1 -5.4 6.7 5.9 13.6 13.6 13.0 8.5 .4 .3 .6 .1 .2 .3 .0 _2 .1 .1 -2.0 1 .8 -.0 .4 .5 2.8 5.6 0.6 1.5 3.2 0 3.8 6.1 0.3 3.4 7.8 1.1 -10.5 -19.5 -20.1 -11.0 -3.0 -6.1 -7.8 -5.5 2.3 .8 .4 .7 2.7 2.3 2.3 1.3 1.6 2.2 3.8 1.2 -1.4 -2.2 -5.0 -5.3 -6.3 -5.9 -2.1 • .6 2.3 3.0 1.0 3.3 .2 .7 — 1.4 3.7 10.1 9.4 11.1 .3 -0.5 2.7 2.1 2.3 2 2.4 2.3 1.7 1.6 3.1 1.7 1.3 1.5 2.0 1.9 2.2 2.6 -3.8 -6.8 -10.1 -10.8 -11.6 -13.4 -9.4 -4.3 -2.0 1.1 1.4 1.8 1.3 -.2 -1.4 -2.0 -1.8 -1.6 -2.3 -1.8 -.9 -1.4 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Tr nsportati an Housing Period All items * Fuel and Food Total ' Total ' pare! and Total ' Renters' costs costs utilities New Adden [um: All iterns, percent hange (annw rate) All Ap- Shelter Motor Medical cars Energy2 items less food, From previ- and shelter From 3 months earlier 6 months earlier From year earlier NSA c lange, December 9.0 13.3 12.4 8.9 3.9 3.8 4.0 3.8 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 11.8 :o.2 10.2 4.3 3.1 2.6 3.8 2.7 9.9 15,2 13.7 10.2 3.6 3.5 4.2 4.3 11.5 17.4 15.1 9.9 2.4 4.7 5.2 6.0 5.1 5.9 6.3 4.5 5.1 5.9 5.9 16.0 13.6 14.5 9.7 1.8 4.2 1.9 to Dec mber, Is SA 3.2 5.5 6.8 3.6 1.6 2.9 2.0 2.9 7.7 18.2 14.7 11.0 1.7 3.9 3.1 2.6 6.2 7.4 7.5 6.8 1.6 3.4 2.4 3.5 8.5 52.2 18.9 9.4 -6.5 -1.7 -2.4 3.0 0.4 .3 .3 -0.2 8.8 10.1 10.0 12.5 11.0 6.4 6.1 6.7 8.0 37.4 18.1 11.9 1.3 — .5 .2 1.8 6.5 7.7 7.2 9.9 9.4 6.1 5.0 4.4 3.7 11.3 13.5 10.4 6.1 3.2 4.3 3.6 Cha nge, mo nth to nlonth 1885: 198S: Oct Nov Dec 0.4 .6 .4 0.1 .7 .6 0.3 .5 .3 0.5 .7 .4 0.7 .6 .3 0.3 .7 .4 Jan Feb Mar .3 -.4 2 -.7 .1 .3 .4 .1 .9 .9 .4 .3 .3 -.1 .4 .4 .6 .9 ,1 .3 .3 .5 1.1 .1 .4 _7 2 .4 .3 .3 .3 .9 .8 _2 Apr May June July Aug Sent Oct -.4 -.3 .2 .0 .0 .2 .3 _2 1 .2 .3 -.1 .5 .0 2 2 -.0 2 .4 .3 .5 .4 0 .4 .3 .6 .4 -0.2 .4 .3 .2 -1.2 -1.0 — .7 -.9 1.7 -1.4 .1 -.5 -1.2 0.4 .3 -.0 24 .4 .5 -.3 -.5 -.1 .3 -1.4 -2.8 -.3 .3 .8 -1.2 -.9 2 .2 .7 .8 .2 Includes items not shown separately. Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc., also included through 1982. 3 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. 2 0.4 .7 -2.5 .4 .1 .8 .5 0.5 .5 .7 2 .1 .4 -6.0 .2 -11.9 .6 -11.2 2.5 .8 3.0 .6 .4 -6.6 .3 -4.6 2 2.5 .8 -2.3 .4 .7 1.0 .6 .6 .7 .5 .6 .6 .6 -0.2 .6 .4 .1 -3.8 -6.5 -5.8 .3 2.3 -4.1 -1.9 .7 — 2.2 0.5 .5 .3 .5 .2 .2 .2 .1 .3 .3 .3 .2 .4 4.3 1.5 -1.7 2.6 3.1 4.5 5.3 2.9 3.6 3.8 3.2 3.6 3.8 5.1 1.2 -1.9 -4.3 -2.1 1.5 2.7 2.7 2.2 2.7 4.1 2.9 1.6 .3 -.4 -.2 -.8 .3 1.8 2.7 3.9 3.2 2.3 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.5 NOTE.—Data beginning January 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs and therefore are not strictly comparab.e with data for earlier periods. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers in November rose 3.3 percent from their October level. Prices paid by farmers in October (the latest data available) fell 0.6 percent from their July level. INDEX, 1977 =100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1977 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) 180 — PRIC ES PAID 160 i \ ^ 140 A 120 kvl V. /•"""Vx^, .---''""' — _~^ , 180 ---. 140 \_ ^\/-^-^AV/ -^F'RICES RECEIVE D 120 — — 80 1 11 11i 11 1n 60 II 1 II 1 II I II I l l l l l l l 1 II H I M | H I M 1 1 II 1 1 1 II 1 1 |l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1111111 11111111111 1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 60 RA TIO^ RATI D^ 140 140 120 120 . RATIO . 100 100 80 80 60 11 mm in 1978 1979 mm 1981 1980 1982 1985 1984 1983 60 1986 I/RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE [1977 = 100] Pri Period 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: 1986: All farm products Nov Dec Jan Peb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept r. Oct Nov 1 Livestock and products Crops 115 132 134 139 133 135 142 128 127 128 124 122 122 121 123 121 125 125 122 121 125 P rices es received by farm ers 105 116 125 134 121 128 139 120 114 118 113 111 111 114 114 109 105 101 97 97 103 Includes items not shown separately. Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, ind wage rates. 3 Not available. 2 124 147 144 143 145 141 146 136 138 137 135 133 132 127 131 133 143 149 146 145 145 4 paid by farmer s All commodities, sen-ices, interest, taxes, and wage rates 1 Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates 108 123 109 138 151 157 161 164 163 162 162 163 163 (3) 161 (3) (3) 161 (3) (3) 160 (3) 125 139 151 156 159 161 157 155 155 156 155 (3) 153 (3) (3) 153 (3) (3) 152 (3) Ratio Production Hems 108 125 138 148 150 153 155 151 149 149 150 149 (3) 146 (3) (3) 145 (3) (3) 143 (3) z 106 107 97 92 85 84 86 79 78 79 76 75 75 75 76 75 78 78 76 76 *78 Derived using prices paid index for October. NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1977 = 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES In October, growth in Ml and M2 accelerated, while growth in M3 slowed a little. BILLIO ^IS OF DOLLAR S'fRATIO SCA E) B LLIONS OF DC LLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,600 — 3,600 3,200 . 2,800 • T ^---^~~— I^=j 2,400 _____^ 2,000 _—--"" ^_ - - 1 _ 2,400 ~-~~~ 2,000 M2 1,600 [.'-'"\ 1,200 1,200 800 800 700 — ^— 600 —-^~ 400 Illllllllll [ i i n h n i ! 1978 700 600 ^-—' 500 — 300 3,200 ~" -~~ 1,600 -"--" •""" -_,.,-- '- """I Z ^~-^" — 2,800 r^^" Ml — 500 k^-"""" 1 400 iiiiiiiiiii 300 1979 I I M l l l l l l l Illllllllll I I M l l l l l l l Illllllllll I l l l l l l l l l l IIMlllllll 1982 1983 1986 1984 1985 1981 1 1980 AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES: SEASONAL V ADJUSTED OURCE BOARD OF G OVERNORS OF THE FE DERAL RESERVE SYSTE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Ml Period 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1985: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July 7 ; Aug r Sept r Oct". M2 Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCDs) Ml plus overnight EPs and Eurodollars, MMMP balances (general purpose and broker/dealer), savings and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, term RPs, term Eurodollars, and institution-only MMMP balances 363.0 388.7 414.2 441.1 479.9 527.1 558.5 626.6 614.2 620.1 626.6 1,388.9 1,497.5 1,630.3 1,792.8 1,952.6 2,186.0 2,373.8 2,566.5 2,538.9 2,551.4 2,566.5 1,646.4 1,803.2 1,987.4 2,233.6 2,443.5 2,697.3 2,986.5 3,201.2 627.2 631.0 638.4 646.1 658.7 666.8 676.0 687.6 693.1 701.2 2,569.9 2,577.7 2,592.4 2,622.1 2,649.6 2,670.6 2,698.9 2,723.8 2,740.2 2,764.8 3,224.5 3,241.5 3,262.5 3,293.7 3,315.3 3,338.9 3,375.2 3,400.2 3,424.8 3,444.2 1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. 26 L M3 3,165.8 3,181.3 3,201.2 M3 plus other liquid assets 1,909.0 2,114.8 2,323.3 2,593.7 2,850.1 3,163.5 3,532.3 3,839.5 3,762.8 3,800.5 3,839.5 3,862.2 3,881.2 3,895.0 3,918.3 3,950.5 ' 3,972.9 4,003.1 4,031.2 4,061.9 Debt Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors (monthly average) * 3,172.6 3,556.6 3,898.6 4,278.1 4,662.3 5,197.6 5,950.3 6,769.0 ' 6,560.9 6,643.5 6,769.0 r 6,867.6 6,911.2 6,954.7 r 7,012.0 r 7,078.9 r 7, 145.1 7,209.3 7,284.5 7,353.9 r r Perce nt change from year or 6 months aarlier 2 Ml 8.3 7.1 6.6 6.5 8.8 9.8 6.0 12.2 13.8 13.3 12.4 10.7 8.9 9.0 10.7 12.8 13.2 16.2 18.7 17.9 17.8 NOTE,—See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. M2 8.0 7.8 8.9 10.0 8.9 12.0 8.6 8.1 8.8 8.3 7.2 6.0 5.0 5.0 6.7 7.8 8.3 10.3 11.7 11.7 11.2 M3 11.8 9.5 10.2 12.4 9.4 10.4 10.7 7.2 7.6 7.4 6.8 7.3 7.2 7.2 8.3 8.6 8.8 9.6 10.0 10.2 9.3 Debt 13.3 12.1 9.6 9.7 9.0 11.5 14.5 13.8 12.8 13.1 14.9 15.8 14.9 14.4 14.2 r !3.5 11.4 10.2 11.1 11.8 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Period Demand deposits Currency Other checkable deposits (OCDs) Overnight repurchase agreements (RPs), net, plus overnight Eurodollars NSA 1978: Dec 1979: Dec 1980: Dec 1981: Dec 1982: Dec 1983: Dec 1984: Dec 1985: Dec 1985: Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July r Aug r Sepf Oct" Money market mutua fund bala nces General purpose and broker/ dealer NSA Institution only Money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) Savings deposits Small denomination time deposits ' NSA NSA 265.3 234.6 237.9 148.3 242.7 158.5 248.4 170.6 271.5 8.5 17.4 28.0 78.0 103.4 131.3 146.3 178.6 20.3 21.2 28.3 35.9 38.8 53.8 56.3 70.3 6.4 33.4 61.6 150.6 185.2 138.2 167.5 176.5 3.1 9.5 15.2 38.0 51.1 43.2 62.7 64.6 0.0 .0 .0 .0 43.2 379.2 417.0 512.0 482.0 423.9 401.4 344.8 357.9 306.6 289.7 303.6 521.5 635.3 730.2 825.1 852.8 785.2 887.5 880.3 168.7 266.0 169.8 267.8 170.6 271.5 173.7 176.7 178.6 65.2 66.4 70.3 177.0 176.8 176.5 63.3 64.5 64.6 504.1 509.5 512.0 302.3 303.7 303.6 268.9 269.2 273.2 275.7 281.6 284.9 288.3 291.8 292.2 293.2 180.5 183.1 185.3 189.9 195.1 199.0 203.8 210.4 214.8 220.4 68.9 68.5 67.6 68.5 69.0 66.2 71.7 74.0 72.1 76.5 177.7 181.0 186.2 191.4 193.2 197.3 199.7 200.5 202.2 206.7 67.3 67.7 70.2 74.1 76.1 75.0 77.5 80.8 84.4 84.5 515.7 516.3 520.5 525.2 530.8 540.4 546.1 553.1 558.3 563.8 304.0 304.9 306.9 311.4 318.5 325.0 331.2 337.6 344.4 353.8 97.6 106.4 116.7 124.1 134.3 171.9 172.9 173.9 174.4 175.8 176.7 177.5 179.0 179.7 181.2 253.5 261.1 Large denomination time deposits 1 1 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. Term repurchase agreements (EPs) Term Eurodollars (net) NSA NSA av Sav- , m £? Shortterm Treasury securities Bankers' Commercia acceptances P r 301.8 327.8 329.9 413.9 436.5 26.6 29.5 34.0 36.0 34.5 51.8 62.2 66.0 31.8 44.7 50.3 67.5 81.7 91.5 83.1 76.7 80.3 79.6 72.3 67.8 68.0 71.2 74.3 79.5 133.4 149.6 184.4 214.9 266.0 308.4 44.3 44.5 43.6 41.1 79.2 97.0 98.1 102.8 109.9 135.6 161.8 209.5 875.7 876.0 880.3 429.8 432.9 436.5 59.8 63.3 66.0 78.2 78.4 76.7 78.5 79.0 79.5 282.1 300.7 308.4 43.9 43.1 41.1 192.5 196.4 209.5 885.9 891.0 894.7 895.9 891.2 885.6 883.7 877.2 871.3 862.1 447.9 451.3 450.5 452.1 446.4 445.1 445.9 448.0 447.3 443.4 68.8 70.6 71.6 71.5 74.2 75.5 75.2 75.8 78.4 78.5 76.0 79.2 82.7 81.5 79.8 80.1 78.8 78.2 80.7 77.5 79.9 305.5 80.5 307.7 81.1 300.2 81.8 298.8 82.6 305.7 83.4 '299.6 84.3 292.0 85.3 289.1 86.4 290.8 41.6 42.4 41.7 41.0 40.1 40.3 39.4 37.2 37.2 210.6 209.2 209.5 203.0 206.7 210.6 212.3 219.3 222.7 195.1 222.1 259.0 81.1 107.8 22.0 27.2 32.1 39.9 Travelers checks are a component of money stock but are not shown here. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. NOTE.—See note p. 26. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Net change in in stallment ere dit outstandir> g ' Ins tallment credit onts landing (end of perio » Period Total 1976: 1977: 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1985: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug r Sept" 187,782 221,475 261,976 296,483 297,667 314,321 327,173 376,239 453,580 535,098 516,420 522,978 528,621 535,098 542,753 547,852 550,939 555,810 562,267 567,652 573,216 576,610 584,977 1 For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly month. Automobile Revolving 66,821 80,948 16,595 36,689 45,202 53,357 54,894 60,750 66,007 78,369 98,514 118,296 113,850 115,218 117,050 118,296 119,682 120,724 122,131 123,442 124,545 124,721 125,577 125,915 126,426 98,739 112,475 112,255 120,020 125,369 145,908 173,122 206,482 198,656 201,994 203,766 206,482 210,661 213,342 214,361 215,814 218,965 222,606 226,235 228,813 236,551 data, change fr- om preceding Mobile home 15,738 16,362 16,921 18,207 19,119 20,382 20,998 22,194 24,184 25,461 25,341 25,320 25,315 25,461 25,371 25,573 25,584 25,513 25,561 25,480 25,398 25,215 24,949 Other 88,628 87,476 101,114 112,444 111,399 113,169 114,799 129,768 157,760 184,859 178,573 180,446 182,490 184,859 187,039 188,212 188,863 191,041 193,196 194,847 196,007 196,665 197,050 Total 20,739 33,693 40,501 34,507 1,184 16,654 12,852 49,066 77,341 81,518 10,330 6,558 5,643 6,477 7,655 5,099 3,087 4,871 6,457 5,386 5,564 3,393 8,367 Automobile 9,832 14,127 17,791 13,736 -220 7,765 5,349 20,539 27,214 33,360 5,733 3,338 1,772 2,716 4,179 2,682 1,019 1,452 3,151 3,642 3,628 2,579 7,738 Revolving 2,088 20,094 8,513 8,155 1,537 5,856 5,257 12,362 20,145 19,782 1,477 1,368 1,832 1,246 1,386 1,042 1,407 1,311 1,103 175 857 338 511 Mobile home 350 624 559 1,286 912 1,263 616 1,196 1,990 1,277 168 -21 5 146 -90 203 11 -71 48 -81 -81 -183 266 Other 8,469 -1,152 13,638 11,330 -1,045 1,770 1,630 14,969 27,992 27,099 2,952 1,873 2,044 2,369 2,180 1,173 651 2,178 2,155 1,650 1,160 659 385 Source: ] oard of Goverr ors of the Fedt ral Reserve Sv stem. 27 BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES, AND RESERVES Commercial and industrial loans rose 0.4 percent in October. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 -ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS - 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 -LOANS AND LEASES- 600 600 400 400 U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES -v 200 200 160 160 "V 120 120 OTHER SECURITIES - Illllllllll 80 1978 1979 1982 1981 1980 80 1986 1985 1984 1983 ' SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Depo itory institutio n s 3 Al commercial ban k s 1 Period 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1985: 1986: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Oct Nov Dee Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct" Total loans and securities 2 1,014.4 1,136.2 1,240.5 1,308.2 1,401.1 1,553.5 1,722.6 1,900.4 1,855.5 1,876.0 1,900.4 1,930.0 1,935.5 1,944.6 1,947.9 1,957.5 1,963.7 1,985.0 2,007.7 2,027.1 2,031.6 Total 2 747.5 849.9 915.4 968.4 1,033.9 1,123.7 1,319.7 1,449.7 1,424.0 1,436.8 1,449.7 1,469.3 1,473.7 1,491.8 1,495.8 1,501.5 1,505.3 1,513.4 1,524.5 r 1,532.5 1,535.6 Commercial and industrial loans 246.2 291.3 327.4 355.9 392.5 414.0 472.9 499.5 492.7 495.7 499.5 502.1 502.4 506.1 507.8 506.7 508.7 508.7 510.4 r 510.7 512.8 U.S. Government securities Total 137.6 144.4 170.6 179.2 201.9 259.7 260.9 273.1 274.2 276.0 273.1 268.2 273.6 269.5 270.0 274.1 274.8 285.4 290.9 294.1 299.4 1 Data are prorated averages of Wednesday figures for domestically chartered banks and averages of month-end data for foreign-related institutions. Data beginning January 1984 are not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods, largely because beginning January 1984 certain obligations of States and political subdivisions are included in loans rather than in other securities. 28 Borr swings (millions of dollars, unad usted) E sserves adjust 3d for changes iii res erve reqmrem 3nts Loans and leases 129.3 142.0 154.5 160.6 165.3 170.1 142.1 177.6 157.3 163.3 177.6 192.5 188.1 183.3 182.1 181.9 183.6 186.1 192.3 200.5 196.5 2 3 27.85 29.15 30.99 32.19 34.41 36.16 39.51 45.61 44.24 44.85 45.61 45.88 46.37 46.87 47.28 48.58 49.45 50.49 51.32 51.81 52.40 borrowed 26.99 27.67 29.30 31.55 33.78 35.38 36.32 44.29 43.06 43.11 44.29 45.11 45.49 46.10 46.38 47.70 48.64 49.75 50.45 50.80 51.56 Required 27.62 28.70 30.48 31.87 33.91 35.59 38.66 44.55 43.49 43.92 44.55 44.77 45.27 45.97 46.47 47.74 48.51 49.58 50.58 51.08 51.66 Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. Data are averages of daily figures. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Total 868 1,473 1,690 636 634 774 3,186 1,318 1,187 1,741 1,318 770 884 761 893 876 803 741 872 1,008 841 Seasonal 135 81 116 54 33 96 113 56 172 107 56 36 56 68 73 94 108 116 144 137 99 SOURCES AND ES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Uses Sources External Period Total Ci edit market funds Internal 1 Total Total 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984.. 1985 1985: I n ffl IV 1986: I n* Securities and mortgages Other 2 Capital expenditures 3 Increase in financial Discrepancy (sources less uses) assets 70.9 36.6 30.3 126.5 63.2 61.3 67.2 53.2 49.3 4.7 58.1 60.7 48.4 309.3 362.8 343.2 349.1 292.0 399.1 469.1 448.0 216.9 238.3 244.1 286.3 256.3 274.8 371.2 362.6 92.4 124.5 99.1 62.8 35.7 124.3 97.9 85.4 19.2 -10.1 4.4 33.3 35.6 32.2 34.3 31.5 -10.2 29.7 16.9 24.8 74.3 42.7 23.5 112.3 25.8 29.5 73.4 65.2 421.3 409.0 431.3 530.1 351.3 359.8 359.7 379.3 70.0 49.2 71.6 150.8 7.9 43.1 47.8 27.3 51.2 50.5 44.6 __2.0 -34.5 49.7 404.0 419.7 390.0 361.8 14.0 57.9 25.0 39.5 328.6 352.7 347.6 382.5 327.6 431.3 503.4 479.5 197.6 200.1 239.5 242.3 285.7 326.3 352.5 146.3 155.1 147.5 143.0 85.3 145.6 177.1 127.0 85.0 87.8 94.3 93.7 80.6 87.6 116.4 78.5 33.2 20.9 53.1 22.8 44.0 57.3 10.1 15.3 429.3 452.1 479.0 557.4 339.4 350.3 365.2 355.1 89.9 101.8 113.8 202.3 64.1 72.4 40.4 137.1 429.1 459.3 367.7 361.1 61.4 98.2 95.8 48.5 182.3 Loans and short-term paper Total 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained abroad. 2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. 51.8 66.9 41.2 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars, except as noted] Curren assets TT Q End of period Total Cash Governsecurities QFR-PEB series: 2 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1983: IV 1984: I n ra IV 1985: I n ra IV 1986: I" 1 1,043.7 1,214.8 1,328.3 1,419.6 1,437.1 1,575.9 1,703.0 1,784.6 1,575.9 1,619.5 1,650.0 1,685.9 1,703.0 1,722.7 1,734.6 1,763.0 1,784.6 1,795.7 105.5 118.0 127.0 135.6 147.8 171.8 173.6 189.2 171.8 167.6 164.9 161.3 173.6 167.5 167.1 176.3 189.2 195.3 17.2 16.7 18.7 17.7 23.0 31.0 36.2 33.0 31.0 35.4 37.2 33.0 36.2 35.7 35.4 32.6 33.0 31.0 Notes and accounts receivable Current liahiliti€ s Invento- 388.0 459.0 507.5 532.5 517.4 583.0 633.1 671.5 583.0 606.4 622.6 639.1 633.1 650.3 654.1 661.0 671.5 663.4 Total current assets divided by total current liabilities. Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations. Effective mid-1982, responsibility for the Quarterly Financial Report was transferred to 2 431.8 505.1 543.0 584.0 579.0 603.4 656.9 666.0 603.4 622.2 632.5 659.3 656.9 665.7 666.7 675.0 666.0 679.6 Other current assets 101.1 116.0 132.1 149.7 169.8 186.7 203.2 224.9 186.7 187.9 192.9 193.2 203.2 203.5 211.2 218.2 224.9 226.3 Total 669.5 807.3 890.6 971.3 986.0 1,059.6 1,163.6 1,233.6 1,059.6 1,093.1 1,126.3 1,155.0 1,163.6 1,174.1 1,182.9 1,211:9 1,233.6 1,222.3 Notes and accounts payable 383.0 460.8 514.4 547.1 550.7 595.7 647.8 682.7 595.7 601.9 623.4 642.2 647.8 636.9 651.7 670.4 682.7 668.4 Other current liabilities 286.5 346.5 376.2 424.1 435.3 463.9 515.8 550.9 463.9 491.2 502.9 512.9 515.8 537.1 531.2 541.5 550.9 553.9 Net working capital 374.3 407.5 437.8 448.3 451.1 516.3 539.5 551.0 516.3 526.5 523.7 530.8 539.5 548.6 551.7 551.1 551.0 573.4 ratio 1 1.559 1.505 1.492 1.462 1.458 1.487 1.464 1.447 1.487 1.482 1.465 1.460 1.464 1.467 1.466 1.455 1.447 1.469 the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census from the Federal Trade Commission. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census), and Federal Trade Commission. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Short-term interest rates rose a little in November, while longer-term rates fell slightly. PERCENT PER ANNUM 16 PERCENT PER ANNUM [Percent per annum] U.S. T reasury security yields Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: Nov Dec 1986: Jan Peb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct r Nov Week ended: 1986: Nov 8 15 22 29 Dec 6 3-month bills (new issues) * 11.506 14.029 10.686 8.63 9.58 7.48 Constant rr aturities 3-year 11.55 14.44 12.92 10.45 11.89 9.64 2 10-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor's) 3 11.46 13.91 13.00 11.10 12.44 8.51 11.23 11.57 9.47 10.15 10.62 Prime commercial paper, 6 months 1 Discount rate (N.Y. P.E. Bank) 5 11.77 13.41 11.02 8.50 Prime rate charged by banks 5 15.27 12.29 14.76 11.89 8.89 10.16 8.18 11.94 14.17 13.79 12.04 12.71 11.37 8.01 8.80 7.69 18.87 14.86 10.79 12.04 9.93 7.20 7.07 7.04 7.03 6.59 6.06 6.12 6.21 5.84 5.57 5.19 5.18 5.35 8.88 8.40 8.41 8.10 7.30 6.86 7.27 7.41 6.86 6.49 6.62 6.56 6.46 9.78 9.26 9.19 8.70 7.78 7.30 7.71 7.80 7.30 7.17 7.45 7.43 7.25 8.64 8.51 8.06 7.44 7.07 7.32 7.67 7.98 7.62 7.31 7.14 7.12 6.86 10.55 10.16 10.05 9.67 9.00 8.79 9.09 9.13 8.88 8.72 8.89 8.86 8.68 7.69 7.62 7.62 7.54 7.08 6.47 6.53 6.63 6.24 5.83 5.61 5.61 5.69 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.00 7.00-6.50 6.50-6.50 6.50-6.50 6.50-6.00 6.00-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 9.50- 9.50 9.50- 9.50 9.50- 9.50 9.50- 9.50 9.50- 9.00 9.00- 8.50 8.50- 8.50 8.50- 8.50 8.50- 8.00 8.00- 7.50 7.50- 7.50 7.50- 7.50 7.50- 7.50 5.23 5.41 5.39 5.35 5.40 6.48 6.55 6.44 6.39 7.31 7.34 7.21 7.14 6.96 6.91 6.82 6.73 8.73 8.77 8.65 8.55 5.62 5.71 5.72 5.72 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50 7.50- 7.50 7.50- 7.50 7.50- 7.50 7.50- 7.50 7.50 1 Bank-discount basis. 2 Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Series excludes public utility issues for January 17, 1984 through October 11, 1984 due to lack of appropriate issues. 30 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) 4 New-home mortgage yields (FHLBB) 6 12.66 14.70 15.14 12.57 12.38 11.55 11.01 10.94 10.89 10.68 10.50 10.27 10.22 10.15 10.30 10.26 r 10.17 10.03 5 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices rose in November. INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 160 160 140 140 120 120 COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX (NYSE) 100 100 80 80 60 60 HIM 40 1978 1979 1980 40 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 PERCENT PERCENT 20 20 EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) 15 15 10 10 5 1982 1983 1984 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION 1985 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Cmnmon stock price s 1 Nevi York Stock Exc hange indexes (E ec. 31, 1965-5 3) Common st ock yields (perce n t ) 5 2 Period Composite 68.10 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct r Nov Industrial Transportation 1986 Utility Finance Dow-Jones industrial average 3 Standard & Poor's composite index (194143 = 10)4 Dividendprice ratio 89.36 85.63 104.11 37.35 38.91 39.75 47.00 46.44 56.75 64.25 73.52 71.99 95.34 89.28 114.21 891.41 932.92 884.36 1,190.34 1,178.48 1,328.23 118.78 128.05 119.71 160.41 160.46 186.84 5.26 5.20 5.81 4.40 4.64 4.25 130.53 136.77 108.61 113.52 59.07 61.69 122.83 128.86 1,432.88 1,517.02 197.45 207.26 4.06 3.88 120.16 126.43 133.97 137.27 137.37 140.82 138.32 140.91 137.06 136.74 140.84 137.13 144.03 152.75 157.30 158.59 163.15 158.06 160.10 156.52 156.56 162.10 115.72 124.18 128.66 126.17 122.21 120.65 112.03 111.24 114.06 120.04 122.27 62.46 65.18 68.06 69.46 68.65 70.69 74.20 77.84 74.56 73.38 75.77 132.36 142.13 153.94 155.07 151.28 151.73 150.23 152.90 145.56 143.89 142.97 1,534.86 1,652.73 1,757.35 1,807.05 1,801.80 1,867.70 1,809.92 1,843.45 1,813.47 1,817.04 1,883.65 208.19 219.37 232.33 237.97 238.46 245.30 240.18 245.00 238.27 237.36 245.09 3.90 3.72 3.50 3.43 3.42 3.36 3.43 3.36 3.43 3.49 3.40 138.99 141.59 141.30 138.59 142.16 159.32 162.71 162.71 159.49 163.83 121.90 123.64 122.63 120.43 122.42 74.61 75.99 75.82 74.82 76.60 145.14 145.46 143.46 139.99 142.94 1,859.05 1,892.77 1,883.55 1,851.72 1,912.30 241.33 246.04 245.47 241.11 248.40 3.44 3.36 3.37 3.50 74.02 68.93 92.63 92.46 108.09 78.70 85.44 78.18 107.45 108.01 123.79 113.93 119.33 60.61 72.61 60.41 Earningsprice ratio 12.66 11.96 11.60 8.03 10.02 8.12 6.91 6.08 5.88 Week ended: 1986: Nov 1 8 15 22 29 1 Average of dailv closing prices. Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. Includes 30 stocks. Includes 500 stocks. 5 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings- 2 3 4 3.35 price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation, 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first month of fiscal 1987, there was a deficit of $25.3 billion compared with a deficit of $27.1 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,000 RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS ^ 1,000 900 900 -OUTLAYS: 800 800 700 700 600 600 RECEIPTS 500 500 400 400 SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-)!/ -100 -100 -200 -200 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 FISCAL YEARS i/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] On-budget Total Fiscal year or period Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit Receipts Outlays 914.3 1,003.9 1,147.0 1,381.9 1,576.7 715.1 794.4 929.4 1,141.8 1,312.6 176.8 183.5 193.6 9.4 16.7 22.3 1,827.5 2,129.5 2,354.9 1,509.9 1,745.6 1,888.1 15.4 15.5 -1.3 -.3 1,836.2 2,143.0 1,521.2 1,751.5 403.9 469.1 474.3 453.2 500.4 476.6 543.0 594.3 661.2 686.0 -72.7 73.9 - 120.0 208.0 -185.6 113.2 130.2 143.5 147.3 166.1 114.3 135.2 151.4 147.1 165.8 -212.3 -220.7 -143.9 547.9 568.9 615.2 769.5 806.3 781.4 -221.6 -237.4 -166.2 186.2 200.2 216.0 -27.1 -25.3 43.8 43.9 69.6 68.8 25.8 -24.9 14.1 15.1 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 851.8 1985 1986p 1987 (estimates) * 734.1 769.1 831.2 57.9 59.0 271.9 302.2 76.6 328.5 314.2 365.3 73.8 -78.9 -127.9 -207.8 185.3 946.3 989.8 975.1 85.0 84.3 53.6 -59.2 40.2 1 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1987 Budget, Office of Management and Budget, August 6, 1986. Held by the public 5.0 -7.9 .2 .3 369.1 403.5 216.6 231.7 63.2 278.7 Total 396.9 480.3 498.3 551.8 610.9 644.6 18.0 76.8 85.4 98.0 -53.2 73.7 -14.7 Surplus or deficit 544.1 631.9 646.4 709.1 780.4 833.8 60.4 69.6 19.4 80.7 89.7 100.0 332.3 371.8 96.0 409.2 458.7 503.5 Surplus of deficit 62.5 66.4 279.1 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 32 Outlays 55.3 -70.5 13.3 -49.7 54.9 -38.2 1975 1976 Transition quarter 1977 1978 1979 First month: Fiscal year 1986 Fiscal year 1987 Receipts Gross Fe eral debt (end of period) Off-budget 2.0 3.2 -1.4 3.9 -4.3 2.0 -1.1 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first month of fiscal 1987, receipts were $1.1 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $0.7 billion lower. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS Of DOLLARS 400 400 RECEIPTS!/ INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES 300 300 SOCIAL INSURANCE TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS 200 200 CORPORATION INCOME TAXES 100 100 BOTHER RECEIPTS | 0 0 OUTLAYS-^ 700 700 .NONDEFENSE 600 600 500 500 400 400 NATIONAL DEFENSE- 300 300 200 200 100 100 1978 1979 1981 1980 1982 1984 1983 1985 1987 1986 FISCAL YEARS 2j INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] 0n-budget Fiscal year Total Individual taxes On-bud ^et and oi -budget o tlays a nd off-bu( £et receip s Corporation taxes Social insurance Nationa 1 defense Other Depart- Total and Inter- Health Income 1976 1977 1978 1979 298.1 S55.6 399.6 463.3 131.6 157.6 181.0 217.8 41.4 54.9 60.0 65.7 90.8 106.5 121.0 138.9 34.3 371.8 36.6 37.7 40.8 409.2 458.7 503.5 89.6 97.2 104.5 116.3 88.1 95.3 102.3 113.7 6.4 6.4 7.5 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 244.1 285.9 297.7 288.9 298.4 64.6 61.1 49.2 37.0 56.9 157.8 182.7 201.5 209.0 239.4 50.6 69.5 69.3 65.6 71.8 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 851.8 134.0 157.5 185.3 209.9 227.4 1985 1986" 1987 (estimates) l 734.1 769.1 831.2 334.5 349.0 381.7 61.3 63.1 75.0 265.2 283.9 304.6 73.0 73.1 69.9 946.3 989.8 975.1 57.9 59.0 30.6 31.1 1.2 .5 19.6 21.2 6.5 6.2 85.0 84.3 1 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1987 Budget, Office of Management and Budget, August 6, 1986. Social Net Other ty Deferse, military butions First month: Fiscal year 1986 Fiscal year 1987 Medi- 66.4 73.9 85.1 93.9 104.1 26.7 29.9 35.4 42.6 82.8 93.0 114.7 119.6 32.1 39.1 46.6 52.6 57.5 86.5 99.7 107.7 122.6 112.7 118.5 139.6 156.0 170.7 178.2 52.5 68.7 85.0 89.8 111.1 131.4 133.5 125.4 122.3 118.6 33.5 35.9 35.9 65.8 70.2 67.1 128.2 120.7 120.7 188.6 198.8 207.5 129.4 135.3 139.1 131.8 3.1 4.3 6.1 7.0 9.3 9.4 15.7 16.7 11.4 10.0 14.9 12.5 15.8 19.3 7.5 15.7 17.3 18.5 20.5 22.8 26.5 131.0 153.8 180.7 204.4 220.8 12.7 13.1 12.3 11.8 15.9 23.2 26.9 27.4 28.6 30.4 252.7 273.4 282.2 245.4 265.6 274.4 16.2 14.5 15.8 21.9 23.2 21.2 22.5 2.4 1.3 60.8 61.0 61.5 141.1 106.8 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. NOTE.—Data shown here exclude the transition quarter. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the third quarter of 1986, according to preliminary estimates. Federal receipts rose $18.4 billion (annual rate) and expenditures fell $13.8 billion, yielding a deficit of $205.8 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 -200 " 1,200 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES i- -200 1982 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal G overnment expenditure s Federal Governmeiit receipts Period Total Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Contributions for social insurance Total Purchases of goods and Transfer payments Grantsin-aid to State and local govern- Subsidies Net interest paid current surplus of Government or deficit Wage accruals less disburse- national income and product pnses 1983 1984 1985 1982: IV 1983: I n m IV 1984: I n rn IV 1985: I n m IV 1986: I n mr 659.9 726.5 786.8 633.1 636.5 666.0 661.6 675.5 711.2 721.7 729.2 743.9 793.3 755.8 792.6 805.8 800.0 807.7 826.1 294.5 309.3 345.6 303.0 297.1 303.3 285.4 291.9 295.9 301.7 314.3 325.5 360.7 316.6 349.6 355.6 350.3 355.5 365.8 61.3 75.9 73.6 46.4 46.7 59.7 68.8 70.2 81.9 80.9 71.0 69.9 70.5 69.9 76.8 77.2 71.2 74.3 77.4 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 34 51.6 55.7 56.1 47.6 46.3 52.9 53.7 53.6 54.6 55.8 56.3 55.9 55.1 59.3 53.9 56.0 52.7 50.7 53.4 252.5 285.5 311.5 236.1 246.4 250.1 253.7 259.8 278.8 283.3 287.6 292.6 306.9 310.0 312.2 317.0 325.8 327.2 329.5 835.9 896.5 984.9 835.7 822.7 837.4 838.9 844.7 865.2 885.6 901.1 934.0 955.4 970.6 990.1 1,023.4 1,001.5 1,045.7 1,031.9 283.5 311.3 354.1 293.2 285.5 287.7 284.9 276.1 283.4 315.2 317.2 329.1 333.7 340.9 360.9 380.9 355.7 367.6 372.7 348.6 355.0 380.3 347.4 344.2 351.1 346.6 352.5 350.1 351.7 356.0 362.1 374.2 377.2 384.1 385.9 389.3 396.7 399.9 86.2 93.6 99.0 84.5 86.0 86.1 86.8 86.0 91.5 93.4 92.6 96.9 95.7 98.3 100.2 101.6 103.5 106.9 108.0 94.3 115.6 130.5 87.2 88.1 91.1 96.8 101.0 107.3 110.4 119.7 124.9 127.6 130.9 129.8 133.9 135.0 138.1 134.4 22.9 21.3 20.7 23.4 18.9 20.2 23.4 29.1 32.9 15.0 15.6 21.5 24.4 22.3 15.1 21.1 18.0 36.5 16.9 -0.4 .2 -176.0 -170.0 -.2 -198.0 -202.6 -186.2 -171.4 -177.3 -169.2 -154.0 -163.9 -171.9 -190.1 -162.2 -214.8 -197.5 -217.6 -201.6 -238.1 -205.8 .0 .0 -1.3 — .4 .0 .2 .2 .0 .6 .1 -1.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Industrial Jroduction (1977=1 X); seasonal] V adjusted Period United States Canada Japan France 109.8 108.1 113.7 118.9 120.1 1979 110.7 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985". 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.4 123.8 108.6 98.9 104.1 112.7 118.2 120.6 124.7 138.4 144.8 1985: Oct Nov Dec 123.6 124.8 125.6 119.9 119.3 121.2 144.8 144.2 144.6 126.2 125.3 123.6 124.7 124.2 124.2 124.9 125.1 r !25.2 125.2 120.3 120.3 117.1 r 120.2 117.7 r l!6.6 ' 118.0 r 116.3 115.8 144.6 145.2 144.5 144.6 145.1 145.3 144.7 141.6 145.3 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct". 1 Germany Italy 107 106 103 101 107 107 105 102 108.7 114.7 112.1 107 100 96 102 105 106 103 106 112 109.6 103.9 107.1 108.4 116 116 lll 113 113 l!3 117 112 116 117 117 112 107 109 104 r 104 r !07 r !04 r Consumer prices (J 967=100) United Kingdom 110 103 !08 109 109 r United States ' Canada Japan France Germany Italy United Kingdom 259.1 98 101 103 108 221.0 243.5 273.9 303.5 321.0 335.0 348.3 261.3 246.8 272.4 289.1 298.4 311.1 322.2 282.3 296.2 304.1 309.7 316.6 323.0 294.2 332.7 373.1 407.9 439.5 465.1 166.9 175.8 186.9 196.8 203.3 208.2 212.7 328.5 398.0 472.4 549.4 631.8 698.8 764.7 359.0 423.6 473.9 514.7 538.3 565.1 599.4 106.9 110.9 106.6 108 110 107 325.5 326.6 327.4 351.7 353.1 354.7 328.4 325.0 325.2 470.6 471.5 472.1 212.9 213.3 213.5 780.6 786.1 791.6 605.8 607.9 608.7 108.0 111.0 114.5 116.2 108.5 113.7 r 110.6 105.6 108 110 110 r lll 108 107 110 110 328.4 327.5 326.0 325.3 326.3 327.9 328.0 328.6 330.2 330.5 356.3 357.7 358.5 359.1 360.7 361.3 363.9 365.1 365.1 366.9 325.8 324.4 323.5 324.7 326.9 325.2 324.4 323.8 325.4 472.6 471.7 472.9 474.7 475.6 477.0 477.5 478.0 479.9 213.8 213.3 212.8 212.6 212.6 212.9 211.9 211.4 211.7 211.0 795.6 801.2 804.4 806.8 809.9 813.1 813.1 814.7 817.1 822.0 610.0 612.2 613.0 619.0 620.1 619.8 618.0 619.9 623.0 623.9 Data relate to all urban consumers. 217.4 Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Trade Administration). U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data for statistical month, not seasonally adjusted*] Mer handise expo rts 1 Me chandise imp orts Food, 2 foreign exports Total 121,232 119,024 141,142 tobacco Crude materials and fuels Merch andise trade b ilance G eneral import s 3 Domesti exports Food, tured goods Total 2 tobacco Crude materials and fueis tured goods Total (c.i.f. value) Exports (f.a.s.) less Exports {f.a.s.) less -29,158 -31,076 -27,599 — 24,241 — 39,179 -42,364 -40,368 -36,354 (customs value) <\a.s. value 1977 1978 1979 1980 143,681 181,860 220,630 178,633 216,515 15,963 20,604 24,587 30,407 18,579 20.957 28,222 33,719 80,151 94,473 116,587 143,891 150,390 174,757 209,458 244,871 14,227 15,743 17,735 18,551 53,554 51,901 71,390 93,973 76,554 100,317 112,226 125,122 186,045 222,228 256,984 273,352 -27,305 254,885 -31,759 269,878 -57,562 341,177 -107,861 361,626 — 132,129 160,411 Customs v alue 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 -39,675 -42,691 -69,392 -123,312 - 148,480 233,677 212,193 200,486 217,865 213,146 228,899 207,076 195,917 212,034 206,925 33,206 26,977 26,979 27,312 22,226 33,022 33,518 29,555 31,482 28,344 154,283 139,716 132,409 143,142 145,384 260,982 243,952 258,048 325,726 345,276 18,350 17,817 18,819 21,626 22,376 92,873 74,404 68,037 72,758 64,981 142,475 144,022 163,449 221,515 246,778 1985: Oct* Nov' Dec* 17,618 17,721 16,994 17,122 17,227 16,479 1,836 2,128 1,907 2,285 2,559 2,459 12,102 11,688 11,221 28,429 30,010 30,728 1,598 1,865 2,138 5,656 5,657 6,011 20,271 21,557 21,654 29,695 31,371 32,141 — 10,811 -12,290 -13,734 -12,077 -13,651 -15,146 1986: Jan* Feb* Mar* Apr* May* June** July** Aug* Sept* Oct* 17,006 17,735 18,913 17,965 17,431 19,070 17,707 17,604 17,518 19,330 16,501 17,164 18,349 17,376 16,691 16,427 15,911 16,831 16,860 18,594 1,797 1,689 1,706 1,475 1,395 1,438 1,648 2,467 2,367 2,349 2,436 2,228 1,776 1,764 2,035 1,988 2,287 11,393 12,182 13,325 12,615 12,274 12,298 11,623 12,042 12,253 13,367 32,005 28,895 31,972 28,762 30,272 31,764 34,121 29,476 28,695 30,018 2,215 1,908 2,100 2,018 2,329 1,886 2,143 1,931 1,963 1,935 6,234 4,741 4,284 3,176 3,659 4,163 3,963 3,413 3,874 3,514 22,477 21,289 24,261 22,226 23,001 23,971 26,609 23,106 21,849 23,537 33,465 30,225 33,435 30,036 31,638 33,240 35,745 30,925 30,078 31,389 - 14,999 -11,161 -13,059 -10,797 -12,842 -12,694 — 16,414 -11,871 -11,177 -10,688 -16,459 -12,491 -14,522 -12,071 - 14,208 -14,170 -18,037 -13,321 — 12,560 -12,059 1,814 1,672 1,866 1 Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded through 1984 and included beginning 1985. £ Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. 3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. NOTE.—Imports on c.i.f. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods. Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Islands exports are reflected in the figures for domestic and foreign exports combined and trade bal- * Beginning with data released in March 1986, the Bureau of the Census no longer publishes these data on a seasonally adjusted basis. For further information and for details regarding revised statistical mouth and monthly carryover data, see Bureau of the Census release FT 900. "Foreign exports (not shown separately) include $2,050 million of nonmonetary gold bullion for June and $1,250 million for July. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the second quarter of 1986 the current account deficit was $34.7 billion, up from $34.0 billion in the first quarter. The merchandise trade deficit fell to $36.0 billion from $36.5 billion in the first quarter. BILL ONS OF DOLL/\RS* BILL ONS OF DOLL/\RS* BALANCE ON G OODS AND SERVIC ES 5 /'--_• x Auxxl --,_ \/ ^^ ^,/y /'./ Q 5 f ' /f^s --—' S \ f / \ x --^"* 5 *"\ >K' E ALANCE ON CUR RENT ACCOUN IT ^ *» \ o \\ V--.X ^'. v / \\ \ ^^ ''\ \ 5 \\ % 10 * 15 MFR CHANDISE TRA HF \ . ' \ /"" 10 \\ ^ V\ \ \ Vi \ \ BALANCE -15 \ \ . 20 \\ A \\ % \\ \ \ \\ A' \ * 'A. ^ \ \ \ V^^A -:~***^/ 25 V 30 ^•A **—*"" \ ^~ \ —- OK V• -40 1 1 I 1 1 1 1978 \ 1979 \ \ 1980 1 1 1 ! 1981 1 1 1 1 1 1983 1982 \ 1 j 1 1984 i I 19«5 1 I 1 40 1986 'SEASONALLY ADJUS TED SOURCE; OEPARTMEN T OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits ( + ), debits ( —)] Merchandise Period Exports 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 184,473 224,269 237,085 211,198 201,820 219,900 214,424 1983: I II In vestment inconie 3 1 f Imports ' Net -212,009 -27,536 -249,749 -25,480 -265,063 -27,978 -247,642 -36,444 -268,900 -67,080 -332,422 -112,522 -338,863 - 124,439 Net Net Net travel and transac- tation receipts Receipts Payments 64,132 72,506 86,411 83,549 77,251 86,221 89,991 -32,960 -42,120 -52,329 -54,883 -52,410 67,469 -64,803 31,172 30,386 34,082 28,666 24,841 18,752 25,188 -1,778 -2,237 -1,183 -274 -369 -1,827 -2,917 -2,935 997 144 -992 -4,227 -8,593 11,128 Other services, net 3 Balance on goods and services * Remittances, pensions, and other unilateral transfers 1 Balance on current account 6,128 991 5,138 6,214 1,873 -7,593 9,466 7,793 7,425 6,339 13,764 8,699 8,829 -214 -8,917 -9,131 9,711 -37,123 -9,481 -46,604 9,881 94,308 -12,157 - 106,466 10,603 - 102,694 -14,983 -117,677 49,642 49,216 50,351 52,611 -59,476 -64,798 -70,740 -73,886 -9,834 -15,582 -20,389 -21,275 18,077 18,732 20,684 19,758 -12,228 -12,807 -13,536 -13,839 5,849 5,925 7,148 5,919 492 32 -131 -762 -588 -916 -1,226 -1,497 2,238 2,486 2,436 2,552 -1,843 -8,055 -12,162 -15,063 -1,752 -2,021 -2,375 -3,333 -3,595 -10,076 -14,537 - 18,396 53,614 54,590 55,691 56,005 -79,415 -83,684 -84,144 -85,179 -25,801 -29,094 -28,453 -29,174 22,860 21,104 21,396 20,861 - 15,446 -17,208 -17,991 -16,823 7,414 3,896 3,405 4,038 -281 -615 -234 -696 -1,834 -2,052 -2,332 -2,375 2,630 2,471 2,448 2,333 -17,872 -25,394 -25,166 -25,874 -2,368 -2,439 -3,107 -4,243 -20,240 -27,833 -28,273 -30,117 n m 55,324 53,875 52,498 52,727 -80,369 -84,242 -84,173 -90,079 -25,045 -30,367 -31,675 -37,352 18,726 22,253 24,502 24,509 -16,507 - 16,804 - 16,240 -15,254 2,219 5,449 8,262 9,255 -246 -729 -619 -1,322 -2,201 -2,863 -3,030 -3,034 2,442 2,552 2,609 2,999 -22,831 -25,958 -24,453 -29,454 -3,280 -3,458 -4,001 —4,244 -26,111 -29,416 -28,454 -33,698 1986: I p 53,661 54,795 -90,120 -90,818 -36,459 -36,023 24,216 22,198 -17,699 -16,908 6,517 5,290 -1,066 -704 -2,701 -2,324 2,694 3,077 -31,015 -30,684 -3,023 -4,047 -34,038 -34,731 in IV 1984: I n m IV 1985: I IV n 1 Excludes military grants. Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. 2 3 36 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $10.7 billion in the second quarter compared to a decrease of $6.3 billion in the first quarter. Liabilities to foreigners and international financial institutions reported by U.S. banks increased $5.0 billion in the second quarter compared to an increase of $8.4 billion in the first quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* CHANGE IN U.S. ASSETS ABROAD.NET -20 -20 -40 -40 -60 -60 1986 [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] U.S. assets abroad, net Foreign assets in the 1 J.S., net [increase /capital inflov' (+)]2 [ ncrease/capit il outflow ( — ) ] Period Total 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 U.S. official reserve assets l 2 Other U.S. Government assets U.S. private assets Total Foreign official assets Other foreign assets 38,752 58,112 83,322 94,078 85,496 102,767 127,106 -13,665 15,497 4,960 3,593 5,968 3,037 -1,324 52,416 42,615 78,362 90,486 79,527 99,730 128,430 Statistical < iscrepancy Allocations of special drawing rights (SDKs) Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy assets, net -1 (unadjusted, end of period) -64,331 -86,118 -111,031 -121,273 -50,022 -23,639 -32,436 -1,133 -8,155 -5,175 -4,965 -1,196 -3,131 -3,858 -23,691 -523 -8,621 -17,186 -787 16 529 -953 -1,134 -1,263 — 1,171 -1,436 -21,770 724 -7,979 -14,797 16,200 15,756 19,531 34,009 38 1,591 -2,662 7,002 16,162 14,165 22,194 27,007 11,086 -5,157 3,626 1,573 -88 -176 -3,155 3,417 34,261 33,876 33,066 33,747 -3,571 -20,171 16,443 -16,338 -657 -566 799 -1,110 -2,029 -1,386 -1,388 717 -885 -18,220 18,630 -14,512 22,251 41,963 2,668 35,885 -2,947 -157 -765 6,906 25,198 42,120 3,433 28,979 1,560 6,040 9,162 10,570 940 -962 -3,561 3,577 34,975 34,547 34,306 34,934 n m -510 -2,793 -5,867 -23,266 -233 -356 -121 -3,148 -807 -1,055 -422 -540 530 -1,382 -5,324 -19,579 14,247 25,358 35,665 51,837 -11,066 8,486 2,577 -1,322 25,313 16,872 33,088 53,158 12,374 6,851 — 1,344 5,128 1,093 -1,175 -3,688 3,774 35,493 36,088 38,295 43,186 1986: I p -12,898 -17,749 -115 16 -250 181 -12,533 -17,584 36,620 46,504 2,469 13,766 34,151 32,738 10,316 5,976 1,216 -1,464 44,919 46,595 1983: I n m IV 1984: I n in IV 1985: I IV n .... -3,746 -59,453 -5,162 -72,802 -5,097 -100,758 -6,131 -110,177 -43,821 -5,005 -5,523 -14,986 -2,824 25,754 1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDRs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. resen position in the IMF. 2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. 1,139 1,152 1,093 25,431 24,982 20,276 36,325 11,130 27,338 23,006 18,956 26,756 30,074 33,958 33,747 34,934 43,186 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets Consumer Installment Credit Bank Loans and Securities, and Reserves Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. 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