Full text of Economic Indicators : November 1984
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98th Congress, 2d Session Economic Indicators NOVEMBER 1984 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1984 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) ROGER W. JEPSEN, Iowa, Chairman LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Vice Chairman SENATE WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) JAMES ABDNOR (South Dakota) STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho) MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia) ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York) LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland) HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana) PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland) AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California) DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin) JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) MARJORIE S. HOLT (Maryland) DAN LUNGREN (California) OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine) DAN C. ROBERTS, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS WILLIAM A. NISKANEN, Member WILLIAM POOLE, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—SlST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce, Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.50 a single copy ($3.13 foreign), or by subscription at $27.00 per year ($33.75 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to revised estimates for the third quarter of 1984, gross national product (GNF) rose $50.5 biHion or 5.7 percent, both at annual rates. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 1.9 percent (annual rate) and the implicit price deflator, 3.7 percent (annual rate). In the second quarter, GNP rose 10.7 percent, real GNP rose 7.1 percent, and the deflator rose 3.3 percent. BILLIOhJS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 4,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO S>CALE) 4,000 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES ^. E3,600 x^ 3,600 3,200 2,800 E = --——' ^ 3,200 — x-^H __ __ 2,800 GNP IN CURRENT DOLLARS E V--1r-~^ 2,400 2,400 — 2,000 2,000 1,600 ~-^C — IK GNP 1972 DOLLAR 1,600 ^^ U \ J «»**"*"" 1,200 "MI 1976 i i i 1977 1 1 1 1978 1 1 1 1 1 1 1980 1979 I 1 1981 I I I 1982 \ \ 1 \ i 1,200 1 1984 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1982: I II m IV 1983- I II III IV 1984- I II IIP Gross national product ,185.9 ,326.4 ,434.2 ,549.2 ,718.0 ,918.3 2,163.9 2,417.8 2,631.7 2,957.8 3,069.3 3,304.8 3,026.0 3,061.2 3,080.1 3,109.6 3,173.8 3,267.0 3,346.6 3,431.7 3,553.3 3,644.7 3,695.2 Personal consumption expenditures 737.1 812.0 888.1 976.4 1,084.3 1,204.4 1,346.5 1,507.2 1,668.1 1,849.1 1,984.9 2,155.9 1,931.3 1,960.9 2,001.3 2,046.1 2,070.4 2,141.6 2,181.4 2,230.2 2,276.5 2,332.7 2,360.8 Gross private domestic investment 195.0 229.8 228.7 206.1 257.9 324.1 386.6 423.0 401.9 484.2 414.9 471.6 436.2 431.2 415.9 376.2 405.0 449.6 491.9 540.0 623.8 627.0 662.3 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Government purchases of goods and services Exports and imports of goods and services Federal Net exports 0.7 14.2 13.4 26.8 13.8 40 — 1.1 13.2 23.9 28.0 19.0 -8.3 27.7 35.5 6.6 6.3 19.6 -6.5 164 -29.8 51 5 -58.7 -89.9 Exports Imports Total Total 77.5 109.6 146.2 154.9 170.9 182.7 218.7 281.4 338.8 369.9 348.4 336.2 359.4 366.3 346.3 321.7 328.5 328.1 342.0 346.1 358.9 362.4 369.3 76.7 95.4 132.8 128.1 157.1 186.7 219.8 268.1 314.8 341.9 329.4 344.4 331.7 330.8 339.7 315.4 308.9 334.5 358.4 375.9 410.4 421.1 459.2 253.1 270.4 304.1 339.9 362.1 393.8 431.9 474.4 537.8 596.5 650.5 685.5 630.9 633.7 656.3 681.0 678.8 682.2 689.8 691.4 704.4 743.7 762.0 101.7 102.0 111.0 122.7 129.2 143.4 153.6 168.3 197.0 228.9 258.9 269.7 249,8 245.0 261.6 279.4 273.0 270.5 269.2 266.3 267.6 296.4 302.8 National defense 73.1 72.8 77.0 83.0 86.0 92.8 100.3 111.8 131.2 153.7 179.5 200.5 168.4 175.3 183.3 191.0 194.7 199.3 200.9 207.2 213.4 220.8 220.4 Nondefense 28.5 29.1 33.9 39.7 43.2 50.6 53.3 56.5 65.9 75.2 79.4 69.3 81.4 69.7 78.2 88.4 78.3 71.3 68.3 59.1 54.2 75.6 82.4 State and local 151.4 168.5 193.1 217.2 232.9 250.4 278.3 306.0 340.8 367.6 391.5 415.8 381.1 388.7 394.7 401.6 405.8 411.6 420.6 425.1 436.8 447.4 459.3 Final sales 1,175.7 1,307.9 1,420.1 1,556.1 1,706.2 1,895.3 2,137.4 2,403.5 2,641.5 2,931.7 3,095.4 3,318.3 3,043.1 3,072.1 3,095.5 3,170.8 3,216.8 3,286.4 3,350.9 3,419.0 3,479.5 3,594.1 3,626.8 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS [Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1982: I n m IV 1983: I n. m IV 1984- I n mr Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed 1,185.9 1,254.3 1,246.3 1,231.6 1,298.2 1,369.7 1,438.6 1,479.4 1,475.0 1,512.2 1,480.0 1,534.7 737.1 767.9 762.8 779.4 823.1 864.3 903.2 927.6 931.8 950.5 963.3 1,009.2 121.0 138.1 135.7 119.3 125.6 140.3 158.3 169.9 165.8 175.0 166.9 171.0 63.8 62.3 48.2 42.2 51.2 60.7 62.4 59.1 47.1 44.5 37.9 53.7 10.2 17.2 11.6 -6.7 1,483.5 1,480.5 1,477.1 1,478.8 953.7 958.9 964.2 976.3 175.2 166.9 163.9 161.5 1,491.0 1,524.8 1,550.2 1,572.7 982.5 1,006.2 1,015.6 1,032.4 1,610.9 1,638.8 1,646.5 1,044.1 1,064.2 1,065.6 Gross national product Government purchases of goods and services Exports of goods and services Gross private domestic investment Personal consumption expenditures Federal Change in business inventories Net exports Exports Total Imports Total National defense Nondefense State and local Final sales 7.8 13.3 16.0 7.3 44 11.3 104 -3.6 0.7 15.5 27.8 32.2 25.4 22.0 24.0 37.2 50.3 43.8 29.7 12.6 77.5 97.3 108.5 103.5 110.1 112.9 126.7 146.2 159.1 160.2 147.6 139.5 76.7 81.8 80.7 71.4 84.7 90.9 102.7 109.0 108.8 116.4 118.0 126.9 253.1 253.3 260.3 265.2 265.2 269.2 274.6 278.3 284.3 287.0 292.7 291.9 101.7 95.9 96.6 97.4 96.8 100.4 100.3 102.1 106.4 110.3 117.0 116.2 73.1 68.3 66.9 66.4 64.9 65.4 65.7 67.4 70.0 73.5 79.1 84.7 28.5 27.6 29.7 31.0 31.8 35.0 34.7 34.8 36.4 36.7 37.9 31.5 151.4 157.4 163.6 167.8 168.4 168.8 174.3 176.2 177.9 176.8 175.7 175.7 1,175.7 1,237.1 1,234.7 1,238.4 1,290.4 1,356.4 1,422.6 1,472.2 1,479.4 1,500.9 1,490.4 1,538.3 36.2 37.6 36.8 40.8 -6.7 -4.0 -6.4 -24.6 34.9 34.1 25.7 24.1 152.2 155.1 146.6 136.7 117.3 121.0 120.9 112.6 290.2 287.0 292.8 300.6 114.8 111.0 117.2 124.8 75.7 78.1 80.6 81.9 39.1 32.9 36.6 42.9 175.4 176.0 175.7 175.8 1,490.3 1,484.5 1,483.5 1,503.4 161.6 165.3 172.6 184.5 46.2 53.4 57.2 57.8 -16.5 -6.1 .9 7.2 22.9 13.6 11.9 2.0 138.2 137.0 141.6 141.0 115.3 123.4 129.7 139.1 294.3 292.4 292.0 288.8 119.0 117.2 115.6 113.0 83.3 84.8 84.4 86.3 35.7 32.3 31.2 26.7 175.3 175.2 176.4 175.8 1,507.5 1,530.9 1,549.3 1,565.4 193.3 202.9 210.5 60.6 60.8 60.1 31.6 20.3 30.0 -8.3 -11.4 -26.6 144.9 144.7 147.8 153.2 156.2 174.4 289.5 302.1 306.8 112.2 123.2 125.4 87.1 89.6 89.1 25.2 33.6 36.3 177.3 178.9 181.4 1,579.3 1,618.5 1,616.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1972=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Personal consumption expenditures Period Gross national product Total Gross private domestic investment Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Exports and imports of goods and services Government purchases of goods and services Federal Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed Exports Imports Total National defense Nondefense State and local 100.00 105.75 115.08 125.79 132.34 140.05 150.42 163.42 178.42 195.60 207.38 215.34 100.0 105.7 116.4 125.3 131.7 139.3 149.1 162.5 179.0 194.5 206.0 213.6 100.0 101.7 108.2 117.3 123.9 129.2 136.4 145.0 156.2 167.1 174.5 177.7 100.0 108.5 123.4 132.5 137.2 143.6 153.4 169.9 • 188.1 202.5 208.7 213.0 100.0 104.7 113.0 121.6 129.6 139.3 150.0 162.3 178.8 196.8 213.6 226.0 100.0 103.8 115.4 132.2 138.6 146.3 157.2 170.8 186.2 202.2 209.5 206.4 100.0 109.1 120.3 131.0 140.7 158.0 178.3 200.5 218.5 234.1 241.3 246.4 100.0 112.7 134.8 149.6 155.3 161.9 172.6 192.5 212.9 230.9 236.0 241.0 100.0 116.7 164.6 179.6 185.6 205.5 214.1 246.1 289.4 293.8 279.3 271.5 100.0 106.3 114.9 126.0 133.5 142.8 153.1 164.8 185.2 207.6 221.4 232.1 100.0 106.6 115.1 124.9 132.4 141.9 152.7 166.0 187.5 209.1 227.0 236.6 100.0 105.6 114.2 128.2 135.7 144.6 153.8 162.5 180.8 204.7 209.8 220.0 100.0 107.0 118.0 129.4 138.3 148.4 159.7 173.7 191.5 208.0 222.8 236.7 n .. in 203.98 206.77 208.53 210.27 202.5 204.5 207.6 209.6 172.8 174.0 175.5 175.6 207.1 207.4 209.6 210.5 207.9 211.4 215.6 219.4 208.7 210.4 208.8 210.1 241.7 241.8 241.8 240.0 236.2 236.2 236.2 235.3 282.9 273.3 280.9 280.1 217.6 220.7 223.2 223.8 222.5 224.5 227.4 233.1 208.2 211.7 213.9 206.2 217.2 220.8 224.7 228.4 1983: I II III. IV 212.87 214.25 215.89 218.21 210.7 212.8 214.8 216.0 176.6 176.8 178.0 179.3 210.2 212.6 214.5 214.8 221.9 224.9 227.3 229.7 207.1 205.2 205.1 208.1 245.2 243.0 248.7 248.3 237.7 239.4 241.5 245.4 267.8 271.0 276.3 270.3 229.4 230.8 232.8 235.6 233.7 234.8 237.9 240.0 219.4 220.3 219.1 221.4 231.5 234.9 238.4 241.8 1984: I II r Ill 220.58 222.40 224.44 218.0 219.2 221.5 179.0 179.5 179.3 217.4 216.4 217.8 232.6 236.0 239.8 206.3 207.4 208.3 249.4 255.9 258.6 247.7 250.4 249.8 267.9 269.6 263.3 238.5 240.6 241.4 245.1 246.4 247.3 215.5 225.1 227.1 246.4 250.0 253.J 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1982: I IV Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Personal consumption expenditures Gross national product Period 10.1 11.8 8.1 8.0 10.9 11.7 12.8 11.7 8.8 12.4 3.8 7.7 -.2 4.7 2.5 3.9 8.5 12.3 10.1 10.6 14.9 10.7 5.7 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976... 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1982: I n m IV 1983- I II rn Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars „... , IV 1984: I n .r ni 5.7 5.8 -.6 -1.2 5.4 5.5 5.0 2.8 3 2.5 -2.1 3.7 -4.6 -.8 -.9 .5 3.3 9.4 6.8 5.9 10.1 7.1 1.9 Implicit price deflator Chain price index 4.2 5.8 8.8 9.3 5.2 5.8 7.4 8.6 9.2 9.6 6.0 3.8 4.6 5.6 3.4 3.4 5.0 2.6 3.1 4.4 4.4 3.3 3.7 Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) 4.1 6.0 9.1 9.2 5.7 6.1 7.6 8.9 8.9 9.5 6.6 4.3 6.0 5.3 5.8 5.0 3.4 4.3 4.4 4.1 4.9 4.1 3,9 NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. 9.6 10.2 9.4 9.9 11.0 11.1 11.8 11.9 10.7 10.9 7.3 8.6 8.6 6.3 8.5 9.3 4.8 14.5 7.6 9.2 8.6 10.2 4.9 4.0 6.0 9.4 9.1 5.8 6.3 7.8 9.5 9.8 9.7 6.4 4.2 5.6 4.7 5.8 4.6 3.3 4.1 4.7 3.9 5.0 4.3 4.0 Implicit price deflator Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars 5.8 4.2 -.7 2.2 5.6 5.0 4.5 2.7 .5 2.0 1.4 4.8 2.9 2.2 2.2 5.1 2.6 10.0 3.8 6.8 4.6 7.9 .6 Chain price index 3.7 5.7 10.1 7.6 5.1 5.8 7.0 9.0 10.2 8.7 5.9 3.7 5.5 4.0 6.1 4.0 2.2 4.1 3.7 2.3 3.8 2.2 4.3 Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) 3.6 6.1 10.4 7.7 5.3 6.0 7.3 9.3 10.7 9.2 6.1 4.1 5.7 4.2 6.3 5.0 2.5 4.4 3.7 3.6 4.7 3.3 3.9 3.5 6.1 10.4 7.8 5.3 6.2 7.4 9.7 11.1 9.4 5.9 4.0 5.4 3.7 6.6 4.9 1.9 4.5 3.9 3.4 4.9 3.1 4.0 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollars) 1 Gross domestic product of aonfinaneial corporate business (billions of dollars) Period Current dollars 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 „ 1982: III.. IV W83: I II Ill IV 19S4- I II Ill p 1 1972 dollars 678.0 759.4 678.0 818.9 708.2 694.2 745.5 795.8 846.3 890.0 1,001.3 1,128.4 1,276.2 1,416.8 1,540.7 1,739.2 1,778.4 1,917.7 1,787.8 1,772.4 1,812.3 1,887.6 1,956.6 2,014.2 2,084.2 2,146.9 2,169.1 731.9 876.1 859.5 883.3 857.4 896.4 858.5 846.5 855.7 886.2 912.4 931.1 956.9 979.5 980.9 Total cost and profit 2 1.000 1.038 1.156 1.2.82 1.343 1.418 1.508 1.617 1,793 1.969 2.074 2.139 2.083 2.094 2.118 2.130 2.144 2.163 2.178 2.192 2.211 Capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment 0.092 .093 .112 .137 .141 .145 .155 .171 .198 .217 .245 .243 .247 .254 .250 .243 .241 .239 .236 .234 .238 Indirect business taxes ® 0.113 .114 .127 .140 .141 .141 .144 .149 .172 .201 .210 .219 .211 .217 .218 .222 .220 .219 .217 .218 .220 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1972 dol- lars. 2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. Compensation of employees 0:659 .692 .786 .837 .878 .928 .998 1.094 1.218 1.307 1.397 1.409 1.404 1.419 1.421 1.408 1.400 1.408 1.415 1.414 1.432 3 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Net interest Total 0.028 .031 ,042 .044 .040 .040 .044 .050 .065 .076 .©84 ,077 .080 .081 .079 .076 .077 .077 .078 .081 .083 0.107 .107 .090 .124 .144 .163 .168 .154 .140 .167 .138 .191 .141 .123 .151 .182 .206 .221 .233 .246 .238 Profits tax liability 0.049 .055 .059 .059 .071 .075 .079 .079 .078 .072 .052 ,065 .052 .043 .049 .064 .073 .072 .078 .079 .067 Profits after tax 4 0.058 .053 .030 .065 .073 .088 .089 .075 .062 .095 .086 .126 .089 .080 .102 .118 .133 ,149 .155 .167 .171 Output per hour of all employees (1972 dollars) Compensation per hour of all employees (dollars) 7.664 7.849 7.555 7.774 7.998 8.141 8.209 8.194 8.118 8.271 8.357 8.634 8.406 8.398 8.464 8.617 8.728 8.725 8.801 8.863 8.817 5.052 5.429 5.937 6.507 7.021 7.555 8.191 8.961 9.884 10.811 11.677 12.166 11.801 11.913 12.027 12.131 12.224 12.283 12.454 12.528 12.630 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 4 NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period National income Compensation of employees1 Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Farm 1972 1973 1974.. 1975 1976 . 1977 1978 1979 ... . 1980 1981 1982 1983 1982- I H in 1983: IV I II m IV 1984- I H Ill" 1 718.0 801.3 877.5 931.4 ,036.3 ,152.1 ,301.1 ,458.1 ,599.6 ,765.4 ,864.2 ,984.9 ,834.2 ,857.7 ,876.3 ,888.7 1,921.3 1,962.4 2,000.7 2,055.4 2,113.4 2,159.2 r 2,191.9 963.6 1,086.2 1,160.7 1,239.4 1,379.2 1,550.5 1,760.3 1,966.7 2,116.6 2,363.8 2,446.8 2,646.7 2,422.3 2,443.9 2,452.4 2,468.6 2,527.0 2,609.0 2,684.4 2,766.5 2,873.5 2,944.8 2,983.4 Nonfaim 58.1 61.0 62.2 65.4 75.0 84.8 92.2 100.2 95.6 93.7 89.2 107.9 86.8 88.5 89.5 92.1 98.3 106.8 112.1 114.6 122.5 126.3 127.5 18.7 32.8 26.5 24.6 19.1 19.1 26.3 31.9 21.8 31.5 21.8 13.8 30.0 19.2 12.7 25.4 16.4 10.1 11.2 17.3 32.5 23.4 r 27.0 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Total 96.6 108.3 94.9 110.5 138.1 167.3 192.4 194.8 175.4 189.9 159.1 225.2 159.9 161.7 163.3 151.6 179.1 216.7 245.0 260.0 277.4 291.1 281.5 Inventory valuation adjustment Profits before tax Total 21.0 22.6 23.5 23.0 23.5 24.8 26.6 27.9 31.5 42.3 51.5 58.3 47.8 48.3 52.9 57.0 57.7 59.0 56.2 60.4 61.0 62.0 63.0 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment 100.6 125.6 136.7 132.1 166.3 194.7 229.1 252.7 234.6 221.2 165.5 203.2 167.6 169.8 168.9 155.8 161.7 198.2 227.4 225.5 243.3 246.0 223.7 94.0 105.6 96.7 120,6 151.6 178.5 205.1 209.6 191.7 197.6 156.0 192.0 161.3 160.9 158.8 143.2 157.3 186.1 208.1 216.3 229.8 238.7 223.3 Capital consumption adjustment -6.6 -20.0 -40.0 -11.6 -14.7 -16.2 -24.0 -43.1 -42.9 -23.6 9.5 -11.2 -6.3 -8.9 -10.1 -12.6 -4.3 -12.1 193 -9.2 -13.5 -7.3 r -A 2.7 2.7 -1.8 -10.1 -13.5 11.3 -12.7 -14.8 -16.3 -7.6 3.1 33.2 -1.4 .8 4.5 8.4 21.7 30.6 36.9 43.6 47.6 52.3 r 58.2 Net interest 51.2 60.2 76.1 84.5 87.2 102.5 121.7 153.8 192.6 241.0 260.9 256.6 263.6 268.5 257.7 253.8 254.2 254.2 259.2 258.9 266.8 282.8 292.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 .. . .. 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1982: I II HI IV 1983: I II III IV 1984: I II III"... Total personal consumption expenditures 737.1 812.0 888.1 976.4 1,084.3 1,204.4 1,346.5 1,507.2 1,668.1 1,849.1 1,984.9 2,155.9 1,931.3 1,960.9 2,001.3 2,046.1 2,070.4 2,141.6 2,181.4 2,230.2 2,276.5 2,332.7 2,360.8 Durable goods Total durable goods 111.1 123.3 121.5 132.2 156.8 178.2 200.2 213.4 214.7 235.4 245.1 279.8 239.4 241.6 244.5 255.0 259.4 276.1 284.1 299.8 310.9 320.7 318.5 Motor vehicles and parts Furniture and household equipment 52.4 57.1 50.4 55.8 72.6 84.8 95.7 96.6 90.7 101.9 108.7 129.3 106.2 105.1 108.1 115.3 115.3 128.4 132.0 141.7 147.7 152.3 150.0 41.7 47.1 50.6 53.5 59.1 65.7 72.8 81.8 86.3 92.3 94.4 104.1 92.1 94.4 94.5 96.6 99.1 102.4 105.2 109.8 113.0 116.6 116.4 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Retail sales of new passenger cars (millions of units) Nondurable goods Other 16.9 19.2 20.5 22.9 25.2 27.7 31.7 35.1 37.7 41.2 42.1 46.4 41.2 42.1 41.9 43.1 45.0 45.3 46.9 48.2 50.3 51.7 52.1 Total nondurable goods 300.6 333.4 373.4 407.3 441.7 478.8 528.2 600.0 668.8 730.7 757.5 801.7 746.4 750.6 762.5 770.6 775.2 796.9 811.7 823.0 841.3 858.3 861.1 Food 154.9 172.1 193.7 213.6 230.6 249.8 275.9 311.6 345.1 373.9 392.8 416.5 384.2 390.6 396.0 400.3 406.7 413.6 420.5 425.1 433.9 442.1 448.4 Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil 55.4 61.4 64.8 69.6 75.3 82.6 92.4 99.1 104.6 114.3 118.8 127.0 118.0 118:0 119.0 120.0 121.6 127.1 126.8 132.5 136.1 142.2 139.3 25.4 28.6 36.6 40.4 44,0 48.1 51.2 66.6 84.8 94.6 90.4 90.0 93.4 88.6 89.9 89.6 86.7 89.5 92.1 91.7 92.0 92.8 90.1 Other 64.9 71.2 78.2 83.7 91.9 98.2 108.8 122.8 134.3 147.9 155.6 168.2 150.8 153.4 157.6 160.6 160,3 166.7 172.2 173.6 179.3 181.2 183.4 Services 325.3 355.2 393.2 437.0 485.7 547.4 618.0 693.7 784.5 883.0 982.2 1,074.4 945.4 968.6 994.2 1,020.6 1,035.8 1,068.6 1,085.7 l,10f.5 1,124.4 1,153.7 1,181.2 Domestics Imports 9.3 9.6 7.4 7.0 8.5 9.0 9.2 8.2 6.6 6.2 5,8 6.8 5.8 5.7 5.6 6.0 6.0 6.9 6.9 7.4 8.2 8.3 8.0 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.6 1 2.1 2.3 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income increased $17.7 billion (annual rate) in October, following a rise of $22.5 billion in September. Wages and salaries rose $4.2 billion in October compared to a rise of $12.3 biflion in September. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,200 2,800 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RAT!O SCALE) 3,200 2,800 TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 600 "\ OTHER INCOME 400 400 -"X TRANSFER PAYMENTS 200 200 160 160 111 120 U 1976 1977 I I 11 1 1 1 I 1978 ninli 1979 I II I ill 11| I 1981 1980 ILL 1982 1983 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 120 1984 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Total personal income Wage and salary disbursements J Proprietors' income 3 Other labor income l 2 Farm Nonfarm Rental income of persons 4 Personal dividend income Personal interest income Transfer payments 5 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance Nonfarm personal income 6 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1,168.6 1,265.0 1,391.2 1,540.4 1,732.7 1,951.2 2,165.3 2,429.5 2,584.6 2,744.2 765.7 806.4 889.9 983.2 1,106.3 1,237.6 1,356.7 1,493.1 1,568.7 1,659.2 55.8 64.5 75.9 89.4 102.5 114.9 128.0 140.0 155.5 173.1 26.5 24.6 19.1 19.1 26.3 31.9 21.8 31.5 21.8 13.8 62.2 65.4 75.0 84.8 92.2 100.2 95.6 93.6 89.2 107.9 23.5 23.0 23.5 24.8 26.6 27.9 31.5 42.3 51.5 58.3 29.1 29.9 36.5 39.6 45.3 50.8 56.8 64.3 66.5 70.3 112.4 123.2 132.5 152.8 179.4 218.7 266.0 331.8 366.6 376.3 141.2 178.3 194.3 207.9 223.8 250.3 297.6 337.3 376.1 405.0 47.9 50.4 55.5 61.1 69.8 81.1 88.7 104.5 111.4 119.6 1,131.8 1,229.1 1,359.3 1,506.5 1,689.7 1,899.3 2,119.5 2,371.2 2,532.1 2,701.1 1983- Oct Nov Dec 2,814.9 2,834.2 2,860.4 1,706.0 1,712.2 1,727.9 180.1 182.1 184.3 14.8 15.8 21.4 114.7 114.6 114.5 58.9 60.9 61.3 72.2 72.9 73.3 387.5 387.8 389.4 403.3 410.8 412.2 122.6 122.9 123.9 2,771.0 2,789.4 2,810.1 1984: 2,897.4 2,923.5 2,940.6 2,968.5 2,978.8 3,006.5 3,027.0 3,045.4 3,067.9 3,085.5 1,747.6 1,755.1 1,764.6 1,785.3 1,789.8 1,804.3 1,812.4 1,816.9 1,829.2 1,833.4 186.3 188.1 189.9 191.7 193.5 195.3 196.7 198.1 199.5 201.0 30.1 36.5 30.9 25.4 21.4 23.5 25.5 27.4 28.2 28.6 120.7 122.9 123.8 125.7 126.2 127.1 127.1 127.1 128.2 128.3 61.1 60.8 61.2 61.6 62.0 62.4 62.6 62.9 63.3 63.7 74.0 75.0 76.0 76.9 77.1 77.6 78.0 78.2 79.4 79.8 396.6 403.8 411.4 418.4 425.6 432.9 440.6 448.1 455.2 462.0 410.2 410.9 412.8 414.9 414.8 415.9 417.1 419.9 418.8 423.1 129.1 1,29.5 130.1 131.3 131.5 132.5 133.0 133.3 134.1 134.4 2,838.3 2,857.9 2,880.5 2,913.8 2,928.1 2,953.5 2,971.8 2,988.1 3,009.6 3,026.6 Jan Feb Mar May June July r Sept r Oct p 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. ^ Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workers' injury compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 4 With capital consumption adjustment. Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. 8 6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable income rose again in the third quarter of 1984. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 2,800 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 2,800 DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 12,000 11,000 — PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 10,000 9,000 8,000 DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 CURRENT DOLLARS 8,000 7,000 7,000 6,000 6,000 1972 DOLLARS 5,000 5,000 4,000 4,000 I i i 3,000 1976 1977 I 1979 1978 I I 1980 I 1981 1982 I | I 3,000 1984 1983 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Personal income Less: Personal tax and nontax payments Equals: Disposable personal income Less: Personal outlays 1 Equals: Personal saving Per capita disposable personal income Current dollars 1972 dollars Billions of dollars 1972 1973 1974 1975. 1976 1977 . .. 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 951.4 1 065 2 1,168.6 1 2650 1,391.2 1 5404 1,732.7 1 951 2 2,165.3 24295 2,584.6 2,744.2 141 0 150 7 170.2 168 9 196.8 2264 258.7 301 0 336.5 387 7 404.1 404.2 8103 914 5 9983 1 096 1 1 1944 1 3140 1,474 0 1 650 2 1,828.9 2 041 7 2,180.5 2,340.1 Per capita personal consumption expenditures Current dollars 1972 dollars Dollars 757 7 835 5 913 2 1 001 8 1 111 9 1 236 0 1 3846 1 553 5 1,718 7 1 904 7 2,044 5 2,222.0 52 6 79 0 85 1 94 3 82 5 78 0 894 96 7 110 2 137 4 1360 118.1 3 860 4 315 4667 5 075 5477 5 965 6 621 7 331 8 032 8 874 9385 9,977 3 860 4 080 4009 4051 4 158 4 280 4441 4 512 4487 4561 4555 4,670 Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population (thousands) 2 Percent 3,511 2.9 4 521 4972 5468 6048 6 695 7,326 8 037 8,543 9,192 3 623 3,566 3 609 3,774 3 924 4,057 4 121 4,092 4 131 4,146 4,303 57 — 1.7 10 3 511 3 831 4 152 2.6 29 3.8 1.6 — .6 16 —.a 2.5 6.5 8.6 8.5 8.6 6.9 5.9 6.1 5.9 6.0 6.7 6.2 5.0 209,924 211,939 213,898 215,981 218,086 220,289 222,629 225,106 227,694 230,068 232,351 234,542 231,513 232,027 232,634 233,230 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1982: I II 404.4 411.4 398.5 402.0 2,132.0 2,156.8 2,195.8 2,237.5 1 9895 2,020.1 2,061.3 2,107.3 142 6 136.7 134.5 130.2 9 209 9,295 9,439 9,593 4548 4,546 4,548 4,578 8342 8,451 8,603 8,773 4 119 4,133 4,145 4,186 — 2.1 2 Ill IV 2,536.5 2,568.2 2,594.3 2,639.5 .2 2.7 6.7 6.3 6.1 5.8 1983: I II Ill IV 2,662.8 2,714.4 2,763.3 2,836.5 401.4 411.6 395.8 407.9 2,261.4 2,302.9 2,367.4 2,428.6 2,133.4 2,206.1 2,248.4 2,300.0 128.0 96.7 119.0 128.7 9,675 9,832 10,082 10,318 4,591 4,619 4,694 4,776 8,858 9,143 9,290 9,475 4,203 4,296 4,325 4,386 1.1 2.5 6.7 7.2 5.7 4.2 5.0 5.3 233,742 234,230 234,811 235,385 1984: I II Ill r.... 2,920.5 2,984.6 3,046.7 418.3 430.3 440.6 2,502.2 2,554.3 2,606.1 2,349.6 2,409.5 2,441.8 152.5 144.8 164.3 10,608 10,806 10,999 4,865 4,930 4,965 9,651 9,869 9,963 4,426 4,502 4,497 7.7 5.5 2.9 6.1 5.7 6.3 235,875 236,369 236,945 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). 2 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are averages of quarterly 9ata, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the second quarter of 1984, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income fell $1.9 billion (annual rate) and net farm income fell $4.6 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 200 200 — 160 • _^-"*— __^1 1OA 100 — 120 inn — — 80 160 — AROSS PA CM iwr OME ^ -* i ^•'*- ^^ fin — — 60 XA — — 40 40 **"% +* ^ ^ y >•— ' ***"J "\ I § f % * 1 1 L \/ \/ i i i 1976 \ \ i 1977 1 1 1978 1 1 1 1979 1 i i i \ 1980 1 1 1981 1 j 1 1 f% % I % % I %f t 10 /\ - V /** / 1 %^ * % §** • § ^^% 20 NET FARM INCOME / N^ ,.-' A 1 . \ / \ \ \ V 1 1982 20 X * ^ I I 1 1983 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 1 1 1 10 1984 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from farming Net farm income Gross farm income Period Cash marketing receipts Total1 Total Livestock and products Crops Value of inventory2 changes Production expenses Current dollars 1967 dollars 3 1976 1977 1978 ... 1979 1980 .... 1981 1982 1983 102.9 108.7 127.2 150.4 150.2 167.9 161.8 151.4 95.4 96.2 112.9 131.8 140.5 142.6 144.8 138.7 46.3 47.6 59.2 68.6 67.8 69.2 70.1 69.2 49.0 48.6 53.7 63.2 72.7 73.3 74.6 69.5 -1.5 1.1 .8 4.9 -5.5 7.9 -2.6 -11.7 82.7 88.9 99.5 118.1 128.9 136.9 139.5 135.3 20.1 19.8 27.7 32.3 21.2 31.0 22.3 16.1 11.8 10.9 14.2 14.9 8.6 11.4 7.7 5.4 1982: I 169.9 160.9 153.3 163.2 146.7 143.0 141.2 148.1 69.8 70.8 70.7 69.2 76.9 72.2 70.5 78.9 4.0 -.7 52 -8.3 140.0 141.4 140.1 136.4 29.9 19.5 13.2 26.8 10.6 6.8 4.5 9.1 1983: I II HI IV.. 153.3 147.3 148.5 156.6 144.6 138.3 143.7 128.3 70.4 68.7 67.6 70.1 74.2 69.6 76.1 58.2 -11.4 144 -16.8 -4.4 135.6 135.2 134.7 135.8 17.7 12.1 13.8 20.8 6.0 4.1 4.6 6.9 1984: 171.3 169.4 134.1 141.7 73.3 71.4 60.8 70.3 3.8 8.9 140.5 143.2 30.8 26.2 10.0 8.5 H. m IV I IIp. 1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventor}' of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. 3 Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index (Department of Labor). Source: Department of Agriculture, except as noted. CORPORATE PROFITS In the third quarter, according to preliminary estimates, corporate profits before tax fell $22.3 billion (annual rate) and after-tax profits fell $10.9 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320 BILLIONS OF DOLL ARS 320 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 280 280 ^ PROFITS BEFORE TAX , »^s /I 240 — f f\ \ V^ 200 s 160 - "^N PR OFITS AFTER L M ^ \ V „«»*' ./'' — 120 \ JIT**** **•—-—. % \V-C>"*^ 160 '""X _ 120 ^/ TAX LIABILITY 80 / / —' 7"^"\ PROFITS' "^ £>-""~ 200 — / \ \^»—-^ on 240 \ _ u^ / ""**" **\\ 4 ."-''' r' ^ " \— UNDISTRIBlJTED 40 40 0 \ \ 1 \ 1976 1 1 1977 ! 1 1 1 I 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1981 1980 1979 1978 1 I I i 1982 1983 1 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1 1 0 1984 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment l Profits after tax Domestic industries Total 2 Total 1972 ... 1973 1974 .... 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1982: I. ... II Ill IV 1983- I II Ill IV 1984: I II III" 1 2 94.0 105.6 96.7 120.6 151.6 178.5 205.1 209.6 191.7 197.6 156.0 192.0 161.3 160.9 158.8 143.2 157.3 186.1 208.1 216.3 229.8 238.7 223.3 85.3 92.0 80.4 107.6 137.4 163.4 185.4 179.0 161.9 173.2 133.6 167.2 139.8 138.6 136.5 119.7 134.9 162.4 180.6 190.8 204.1 217.5 202.7 Financial 15.3 15.9 15.0 11.8 17.1 23.1 31.0 30.3 26.9 19.5 19.6 29.6 13.6 19.0 21.0 24.9 28.4 32.0 29.5 28.5 28.7 28.9 26.9 Total 3 70.0 76.0 65.4 95.8 120.3 140.3 154.4 148.6 134.9 153.7 114.0 137.6 126.2 119.6 115.5 94.8 106.5 130.4 151.1 162.3 175.4 188.6 175.8 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. Profits before tax Nonfinancial Period Manufacturing 40.7 45.5 39.0 52.6 69.2 78.3 86.9 85.6 72.9 84.9 54.5 65.2 58.0 57.4 60.4 42.4 44.9 59.3 73.8 82.9 89.8 92.3 Tax liability Wholesale and retail trade 13.4 13.9 12.5 21.3 22.4 26.6 26.9 27.1 23.6 31.8 25.9 33.4 30.2 25.3 24.0 24.1 25.3 33.0 35.9 39.5 40.6 47.0 3 100.6 125.6 136.7 132.1 166.3 194.7 229.1 252.7 234.6 221.2 165.5 203.2 167.6 169.8 168.9 155.8 161.7 198.2 227.4 225.5 243.3 246.0 223.7 Total 41.6 49.0 51.6 50.6 63.8 72.7 83.2 87.6 84.8 81.1 60.7 75.8 62.9 62.9 61.9 55.0 59.1 74.8 84.7 84.5 92.7 95.8 84.4 58.9 76.6 85.1 81.5 102.5 122.0 145.9 165.1 149.8 140.0 104.8 127.4 104.7 106.9 107.0 100.8 102.6 123.4 142.6 141.1 150.6 150.2 139.3 Dividends Undistributed profits 24.4 27.0 29.9 30.8 37.4 40.8 47.0 52.7 58.6 66.5 69.2 72.9 69.2 68.6 69.0 70.2 71.1 71.7 73.3 75.4 77.7 79.9 81.3 34.5 49.6 55.2 50.7 65.1 81.2 98.9 112.4 91.2 73.5 35.6 54.5 35.5 38.2 38.1 30.6 31.4 51.7 69.3 65.6 72.9 70.2 58.0 Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Inventory valuation adjustment -6.6 -20.0 -40.0 -11.6 -14.7 -16.2 -24.0 -43.1 -42.9 23 6 -9.5 -11.2 -6.3 -8.9 -10.1 12 6 -4.3 -12.1 -19.3 -9.2 -13.5 r71 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to revised estimates for the third quarter, business fixed investment rose $17.7 billion (annual rate) and residential investment outlays fell $0.2 billion. There was a $68.5 billion increase in inventories following an increase of $50.6 billion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 700 700 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 600 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT V 500 600 > / / 500 h-/ ^ N, ^-r^-^T\ A ^ONRESIDENTI AL ^"^ XED INVESTME NT I *•** 400 f 300 VJ s \X ^ 300 *•** 200 RESIDENTIAL FIX ED INVESTMEh41 — L.-..\ 100 ,'"""^ \*--/ 1 \ \ \ 1 \ 1 1 1978 1977 1976 1 1 1 1979 1 1 1 I 1 1 — 100 CHANGE 1 M BUSINESS S^'-' /' INVEh TORIES % "X _ >'" i i i 1 1982 1981 1980 • .'-"' \ """"" 1 400 _ — ****** 200 100 f,,<'' , "* -" — <,*** 1 1 1 1 1 1983 -100 1984 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross private domestic investment Period 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 ,.. . 1980 1981 1982 1983.... ..... . 1982- I n in IV 1983: I n m .., . IV.... 1984- I . II HIr , , Total Total Nonfarm structures Farm structures Producers' durable equipment Total Nonfarm 195.0 529.8 ,228.7 206.1 257.9 324.1 386.6 423.0 401.9 484.2 414.9 471.6 121.0 143.3 156.6 157.7 174.1 205.2 248,9 290.2 308.8 353.9 349.6 352.9 44.1 51.0 55.9 55.4 58.8 64.4 78.7 98.3 110.9 135.3 142.1 129.7 76.9 92.3 100.7 102.3 115.3 140.8 170.2 191.9 197.9 218.6 207.5 223.2 63.8 68.0 57.9 55.3 72.0 95.8 111.2 118.6 102.9 104.3 91.4 132.2 61.5 65.6 54.8 52.4 68.8 92.0 107.0 114.0 98.1 99.8 86.6 127.6 0.7 .7 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.5 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.6 10.2 18.5 14.1 -6.9 11.8 23,0 26.5 14.3 -9.8 26.0 -26.1 -13.5 9.6 15.2 16.0 -10.5 13.9 21.9 25.4 8.6 45 18.2 240 -3.1 436.2 431.2 415.9 376.2 365.7 351.2 342.2 339.3 148.8 142.7 138.4 138.4 216.9 208.5 203.8 201.0 87.5 90.9 89.0 97.9 83.4 85.9 84.5 92.5 1.0 1.7 1.3 2.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 17 0 -10.9 153 -61.1 20 9 -9.5 -11.1 405.0 449.6 491.9 540.0 334.6 339.3 353.9 383.9 130.4 125.6 126.2 136.6 204.2 213.6 227.8 247.3 113.3 129.8 142.3 143.4 108.9 125.3 137.7 138.7 1.0 .9 .9 .9 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.8 42 9 -19.4 4.3 12.7 -32.6 54 11.6 14.1 623.8 627.0 662.3 398.8 420.8 438.5 142.2 150.0 153.3 258.7 270.7 .-285.1 151.2 155.6 155.4 146.4 150.5 150.1 .9 1.0 1.2 3.9 4.1 4.0 73.8 50.6 68.5 60.6 47.0 59.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Structures Producers' durable equipment Change in business inventories Residential fixed investment Nonresidential fixed investment EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT According to tJie Commerce Department July-August survey, business spending for new plant and equipment for the year 1984 is expected to be 14.3 percent above the 1983 level; spending for 1983 was 4.8 percent below the 1982 level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 500 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 400 400 ALL INDUSTRIES 300 200 300 200 NONMANUFACTURING (Surveyed Quarterly) MANUFACTUR NG 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 I I 1976 1977 1978 I 1979 I I 1982 1981 1980 1984 1983 JL/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Addenda Industries surveyed quarterly Manufacturing Period All industries 1976 150.91 1977 . . 174.68 203.54 1978 1979. .. . 240.22 1980 264.44 1981 .. 289.37 1982 •282.71 1983 . 269.22 1984 4 307.60 1982: III... 279.61 rv... 269.80 1983: I 261.71 II 261.16 III... 270.05 IV... 283.96 1984: I 293.15 II 4 302.70 HI4 . 316.22 IV . 318.33 Total Durable goods 59.95 69.22 79.72 98.68 115.81 126.79 119.68 111.53 130.39 28.47 34.04 40.43 51.07 58.91 61.84 56.44 51.78 62.73 118.26 110.23 56.61 50.51 50.74 48.48 53.06 54.85 58.94 60.20 64.82 66.98 109.86 108.79 111.12 116.36 122.78 127.67 134.46 136.67 Nonmanufacturing Nondurable goods 31.47 35.18 39.29 47.61 56.90 64.95 63.23 59.75 67.66 61.65 59.72 59.12 60.31 58.06 61.50 63.84 67.46 69.64 69.69 Total l 90.96 105.4§ 123.82 141>54 148.63 162.58 163.03 157.69 177.21 161.36 159.58 151.85 152.38 158.93 167.60 170.37 175.03 181.76 181.66 Mining 7.44 9.24 10.21 11.38 13.51 16.86 15.45 11.83 13.11 14.57 13.41 12.03 10.91 11.93 12.43 13.95 12.13 13.24 13.14 1 Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May 1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nonmanufacturing surveyed annually") for data for these industries. 2 "All industries" plus the part of nonmanufacturing that is surveyed annually. 3 Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; 10 Transportation 8.89 9.40 10.68 12.35 12.09 12.05 11.95 11.20 12.46 11.29 12.33 11.04 10.88 11.00 11.86 11.46 12.95 12.86 12.58 Public utilities Commercial and other 1 22.37 26.79 29.95 33.96 35.44 38.40 41.95 42.00 44.33 52.27 60.03 72.99 83.85 87.59 95.27 93.68 92.67 107.30 43.02 43.00 92.48 90.83 41.61 41.48 42.22 42.69 43,62 44.61 44.06 45.02 87.17 89.10 93.79 100.62 101.35 105.35 111.60 110.92 Total nonfarm business2 171.45 198.08 231.24 270.46 295.63 321.49 316.43 302.50 Nonmanufacturing Manufacturing 59.95 69.22 79.72 98.68 115.81 126.79 119.68 111.53 130.39 118.26 11023 10986 108.79 111 12 116.36 122.78 127.67 13446 136.67 Total 111.50 128.87 151.52 171.77 179.81 194.70 196.75 190.97 Surveyed quarterly Surveyed annually 3 90.96 105.46 123.82 141.54 148.63 162.58 163.03 157.69 177.21 20.54 23.40 27.70 30.24 31.18 32.12 33.72 33.28 161.36 159.58 151.85 152.38 158.93 167.60 170.37 175.03 181.76 181.66 social services and membership organizations; and real estate. 4 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late July and August 1984, corrected for biases. NOTE.—For details about the reduced industry coverage of the plant and equipment survey, see Suroey of Current Business, January 1984. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE Seasonally adjusted civilian employment rose 347,000 in October and unemployment fell 29,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 116 MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 116 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 112 112 108 108 104 104 100 100 V CIVILIAN 96 96 EMPLOYMENT 92 92 88 88 12 12 8 UNEMPLOYMENT Illll Illll Illll 1976 1977 INI l l l l l l l l l l l I l l l l 1979 1978 4 mi Illll INI II I M I I 1983 1982 1981 1980 1984 *16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted] Period 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983: Oct Nov Dec...... 1984: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Noninstitutional population including resident Armed Forces NSA Resident Armed Forces NSA 163,541 166,460 169,349 171,775 173,939 175,891 176,474 176,636 176,809 177,219 177,363 177,510 177,662 177,813 177,974 178,138 178,295 178,483 178,661 1,631 1,597 1^604 1,645 1368 1,676 1,695 1,685 1,688 1,686 1,684 1,686 1,693 1,690 1,690 1,698 1,712 1,720 1,705 f including resident Armed Forces 103,882 106,559 108^544 110,315 111^872 113,226 113,561 113,720 113,824 113,901 114,377 114,598 114,938 115,493 115,567 115,636 115,206 115,419 115,722 Employment including resident Armed Forces Nonagricultural Civilian labor force 97,679 100,421 102,251 104,962 100^907 102,042 101494 102,510 103,665 104,291 104,629 104,876 105,576 105,826 106,095 106,978 107,438 107,093 106,681 106,959 107,291 106*940 108*670 Ho',204 111,550 111,866 112,035 112,136 112,215 112,693 112,912 113,245 113,803 113,877 113,938 113,494 113,699 114,017 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc. 2 Labor force as percent of noninstitutional population (both including resident Armed Forces). 40-363 O - 84 - 2 Unemployment Civilian employment T nH Total 96,048 98,824 99^303 100,397 99^526 100*834 101,970 102,606 102,941 103,190 103,892 104,140 104,402 105,288 105,748 105,395 104,969 105,239 105,586 Agricultural 3,387 3,347 3364 3,368 3401 3,383 3,240 3,257 3,356 3,271 3,395 3,281 3,393 3,389 3,403 3,345 3,224 3,315 3,114 Total 92,661 95,477 95*938 97^030 96425 97,450 98,730 99,349 99,585 99,918 100,496 100,859 101,009 101,899 102,344 102,050 101,744 101,923 102,472 Part-time for economic reasons l 3,298 3,373 4^064 4,499 5',852 5,997 5,724 5,848 5,712 5,943 5,808 5,463 5,593 5,353 5,491 5,300 5,324 5,496 5,479 Total 6,202 6,137 7337 8,273 10378 10,717 9,896 9,429 9,195 9,026 8,801 8,772 8,843 8,514 8,130 8,543 8,526 8,460 8,431 15 weeks and over 1,414 1,241 l'871 2,285 3^485 4,210 3,655 3,527 3,369 3,201 2,984 2,873 2,855 2,851 2,619 2,689 2,606 2,600 2,530 Labor force participation rate (percent) Total 2 63.5 64.0 64! 1 64.2 64.3 64.4 64.3 64.4 64.4 64.3 64.5 64.6 64.7 65.0 64.9 64.9 64.6 64.7 64.8 Civilian 3 63.2 63.7 63.8 63.9 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 63.9 64.1 64.2 64.4 64.6 64.6 64.6 64.3 64.3 64.4 3 Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population. NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES The seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate, which includes resident Armed Forces in the labor force, wa| unchanged in October at 7.3 percent. The unemployment rate for all civilian workers also was unchanged, at 7.J percent. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 25 BLACK 20 AND OTHER" V s 15 - ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS 10 10 WHITE 5 ^ 1980 1981 1984 1984 1983 1982 'UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) Period Unemployment rate, all workers 1 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 By sex and age All civilian workers By selected groups By race Black and other Experienced wage and salary workers Married men, spouse present Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over 16.4 16.1 17.8 19.6 23.2 22.4 5.2 5.1 6.3 6.7 8.6 8.4 11.9 11.3 13.1 14.2 17.3 17.8 12.8 12.3 14.3 15.6 18.9 19.5 5.6 5.5 6.9 7.3 9.3 9.2 2.8 2.8 4.2 6.0 5.8 7.0 7.5 9.5 9.5 6.1 5.8 7.1 7.6 9.7 9.6 4.3 4.2 5.9 6.3 8.8 8.9 6.0 5.7 6.4 6.8 8.3 8.1 Both sexes 16-19 years White Black Total Women who maintain families Labor force time lost (percent) 2 Fulltime workers Parttime workers 4.3 6.5 6.5 8.5 8.3 9.2 10.4 11.7 12.2 5.6 5.3 6.9 7.3 9.6 9.5 9.0 8.8 8.8 9.4 10.5 10.4 6.5 6.3 7.9 8.5 11.0 10.9 1983: Oct.... Nov... Dec... 8.7 8.3 8.1 8.8 8.4 8.2 8.2 7.8 7.4 7.5 7.2 7.1 21.6 20.2 20.1 7.7 7.3 7.1 16.7 16.1 16.3 18.3 17.7 17.8 8.5 8.1 7.9 5.7 5.5 5.2 11.4 10.5 10.9 8.7 8.2 8.0 10.0 9.8 9.8 10.0 9.7 9.4 1984: Jan... Feb ... Mar... Apr ... MayJune.. July .. Aug... Sept .. Oct.... 7.9 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.4 7.0 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.3 8.0 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.5 7.1 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.8 6.9 6.5 6.3 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.3 7.1 6.9 6.9 7.0 6.8 6.4 6.9 7.1 6.7 6.9 19.4 19.3 19.9 19.4 19.0 17.6 18.3 18.4 19.3 18.8 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.4 6.1 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 15.6 14.9 15.1 15.1 14.2 13.4 15.1 14.4 13.9 13.8 16.7 16.2 16.6 16.8 15.8 15.0 16.9 16.0 15.1 15.4 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.3 6.9 6.6 7.1 7.1 7.1 6.9 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.6 4.6 10.7 11.0 11.0 10.5 9.8 9.6 9.6 10.5 10.0 10.5 7.8 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.2 6.7 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 9.2 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.3 10.3 9.6 9.6 9.4 9.1 9.2 8.9 8.8 8.9 8.5 8.3 8.7 8.5 8.5 8.6 1 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces. Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. 2 12 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS m October, the percentages of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 1526 weeks rose, while the percentages out of work for 5-14 weeks and for 27 weeks and over fell. Both the mean and the median duration of unemployment fell. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT 60 JOB LOSERS — 50 40 40 - 30 30 — REENTRANTS > 4 M 20 20 NEW ENTRANTS — 10 — 1980 10 1984 1983 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Reason for unemployment: percent distribution 1 Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment (thousands) Percent distribution l Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks State programs Number of weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Median Job losers Job leavers Reentrants New entrants Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) 2 Special unemployment benefit claims (unadjusted) 3 Weekly average, thousands 6,137 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 48.1 43.1 41.7 36.4 33.3 31.7 32.3 30.7 31.0 27.4 11.5 13.8 13.6 16.0 15.4 8.7 10.7 14.0 16.6 23.9 10.8 11.9 13.7 15.6 20.0 5.4 6.5 6.9 8.7 10.1 42.9 51.7 51.6 58.7 58.4 14.3 11.7 11.2 7.9 7.7 29.4 25.2 25.4 22.3 22.5 13.3 11.4 11.9 11.1 11.3 2,434 3,350 3,047 4,061 3,396 388 488 460 583 438 2,592 3,837 3,410 4,594 3,775 1983- Oct Nov Dec 9,896 9,429 9,195 35.5 35.1 36.5 27.6 27.6 27.1 13.9 14.1 13.9 23.1 23.1 22.5 20.1 20.2 19.6 9.5 9.4 9.0 56.5 55.0 54.1 8.7 9.1 9.2 23.4 23.7 24.2 11.4 12.1 12.4 2,797 2,734 2,636 389 388 389 2,478 2,620 2,915 522 901 731 1984- Jan Feb. Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct 9,026 8,801 8,772 8,843 8,514 8,130 8,543 8,526 8,460 8,431 36.0 38.1 38.5 39.1 38.0 39.2 40.1 41.9 39.0 41.0 28.4 28.1 28.9 28.4 28.6 28.4 28.8 27.5 30.1 28.7 13.0 13.3 12.7 12.6 13.9 12.5 12.7 13.1 12.9 13.2 22.6 20.5 20.0 19.8 19.5 19.9 18.4 17.6 18.0 17.1 20.5 18.8 18.8 18.5 18.4 18.6 18.1 17.3 17.1 16.5 9.2 8.3 8.3 8.1 8.7 7.2 7.6 7.5 7.6 7.2 53.6 54.1 52.5 51.3 50.9 51.9 52.7 49.8 50.1 52.0 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.8 9.5 9.8 10.1 9.9 10.1 9.7 24.4 24.6 25.1 26.1 25.6 24.2 24.4 27.4 27.3 25.4 13.1 12.5 13.8 13.8 14.0 14.0 12.8 12.9 12.5 12.8 2,615 2,528 2,498 2,449 2,369 2,335 2,361 2,326 2,370 2,612 368 349 354 361 350 354 373 365 374 434 3,374 3,174 2,958 2,613 2,290 2,166 2,327 2,184 2,083 584 489 444 401 374 352 342 322 307 309 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1 ^ E . . Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding. Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Eico, and Virgin Islands), ex-service(UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes Federal and State exed benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program. 3 Federal supplemental compensation program. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 441,000 in October. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 22 90 ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 80 70 SERVICE-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 60 IllllIllllllllllllllllllllllltllll 50 40 -•GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 30 20 Lllilhliil 1980 iiiiilmii iiiiilniii iniihini uiuliin 1981 1982 1983 1984 1980 1984 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers; l seasonally adjusted] •p • J .renou 1V»*ol lotai nonagricultural employment Goods-producing industries Service-producing industries Manufacturing Total2 Construction Total TliiT-nMo isurauie -___j_ goods Nondurable goods 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 86,697 89,823 90,406 91,156 89,566 90,138 25,585 26,461 25,658 25,497 23,813 23,394 4,229 4^463 4^346 4488 3,905 3,940 20,505 21,040 20^285 20470 18,781 18^497 12,274 12,760 12487 12409 11,039 10J74 8,231 8,280 sio98 1983: Oct 91,345 Nov.... 91,688 Dec 92,026 23,895 24,058 24,198 4,044 4,073 4,086 18,886 19,018 19,143 1984: Jan Feb Mar Apr May.... June ... July.... Aug '.. Septpr.. 24,383 24,577 24,595 24,760 24,851 24,974 25,059 25,098 25,005 25,071 4,154 4,226 4,151 4,246 4,286 4,343 4,356 4,356 4,374 4,388 19,254 19,373 19,466 19,530 19,570 19,629 19,696 19,725 19,611 19,667 92,391 92,846 93,058 93,449 93,786 94,135 94,350 94,523 94,754 Get ... 95,195 Wholesale trade lie tan trade Retail Government Finance, insurance, and real estate Services Total Federal 8,061 7,741 7,724 61,113 63,363 64^ 748 65^659 65,753 66J44 4,923 5,136 5446 5*165 5,082 4^958 4,969 5,204 5^275 5^358 5,278 5^259* 14,573 14 989 15*035 15489 15^179 15^545 4,724 4,975 5460 5^298 5,341 5*,467 16,252 17,112 17390 is',619 19,036 19^665 15,672 15,947 16,241 16f031 15^837 15351 2,753 2,773 2366 2'772 2,739 2,152 11,071 11,170 11,266 7,815 7,848 7,877 67,450 67,630 67,828 5,053 5,043 5,055 5,322 5,344 5,371 15,737 15,805 15,857 5,512 5,530 5,546 19,962 20,034 20,130 15,864 15,874 15,869 2,760 2,759 2,762 11,343 11,440 11,513 11,551 11,598 11,652 11,702 11,758 11,690 11,748 7,911 7,933 7,953 7,979 7,972 7,977 7,994 7,967 7,921 7,919 68,008 68,269 68,463 68,689 68,935 69,161 69,291 69,425 69,749 70,124 5,095 5,105 5,112 5,129 5,144 5,163 5,175 5,202 5,211 5,238 5,406 5,438 5,457 5,473 5,492 5,502 5,528 5,544 5,585 5,612 15,914 15,980 16,030 16,095 16,166 16,245 16,283 16,295 16,339 16,477 5,573 5,593 5,613 5,640 5,662 5,676 5,676 5,679 5,684 5,712 20462 20,278 20,378 20,449 20,549 20,681 20,701 20,748 20,870 20,998 15,858 15,875 15,873 15,903 15,922 15,894 15,928 15,957 16,060 16,087 2,760 2,763 2,770 2,771 2,785 2,777 2,779 2,785 2,785 2,772 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial dis- 14 Total Transportation and public utilities putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. * Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average gross hourly earnings Average weekly hours Period 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983: Oct Nov Dec 1984: Jan Feb.... Mar Apr May June July Augr. Sept r Oct11 Manufacturing Total private nonagrieultural 1 Total 36.1 36.1 36.0 35.8 35.7 35.3 35.2 34.8 35.0 35.2 35.2 35.2 35.4 35.3 35.3 35.4 35.3 35.3 35.2 35.2 35.3 35.1 Total private nonagricultural l Overtime 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.3 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.4 39.5 40.1 40.3 40.4 40.2 39.7 39.8 38.9 40.1 40.6 40.6 40.6 40.9 40.9 40.7 41.1 40.6 40.6 40.5 40.5 40.6 40.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 Manufacturing $4.53 4.86 5.25 5.69 6.16 6.66 7.25 7.68 8.02 $4.83 5.22 5.68 6.17 6.70 7.27 7.99 8.49 8.83 8.13 8.14 8.17 8.21 8.23 8.25 8.31 8.29 8.33 8.35 8.34 8.41 8.40 8.93 8.97 8.99 9.03 9.06 9.09 9.11 9.12 9.15 9.17 9.20 9.21 9.26 Adjusted hourly earnings index — total private nonagricultural 2 Percent change 4from a year earlier 5 Index, 1977 = 100 Current dollars Current dollars 1977 dollars 3 86.7 92.9 100.0 108.2 116.8 127.3 138.9 148.5 155.3 157.1 157.2 157.8 158.4 158.5 159.1 159.9 159.6 160.3 160.8 160.6 161.7 161.6 97.6 99.0 100.0 100.5 97.4 93.5 92.6 93.4 94.8 94.7 94.6 94.9 94.8 94.8 95.1 95.4 94.9 95.2 95.2 94.1 94.3 94.1 8.4 7.2 7.6 8.2 7.9 9.0 9.1 6.9 4.6 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.5 2.9 1977 dollars -0.7 1.4 1.0 .5 -3.1 40 -1.0 .9 1.5 1.4 1.0 .4 -.0 -.6 .0 .6 .1 .3 .2 -.3 -.3 -.7 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Percent change from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural s Average gross weekly earnings Period Current dollars 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983: Oct Nov ... . Dec 1984: Jan Feb Mar Apr May . June July Aug r . Sept r Octp 1 Manufacturing Total private nonagricultural 1 3 Retail trade Current dollars 1977 dollars 3 1977 dollars Current dollars $163.53 175.45 189.00 203.70 219.91 235.10 255.20 267.26 280.70 $184.16 186.85 189.00 189.31 183.41 172.74 170.13 168.09 171.37 $190.79 209.32 228.90 249.27 269.34 288.62 318.00 330.26 354.08 $266.08 283.73 295.65 318.69 342.99 367.78 399.26 426.82 443.42 $108.86 114.60 121.66 130.20 138.62 147.38 158.03 163.85 171.05 286.18 286.53 287.58 172.61 172.40 172.93 362.56 364.18 364.99 440.59 441.41 441.32 174.00 174.60 176.65 7.7 7.8 8.0 6.9 8.5 4.7 5.0 6.4 5.6 5.7 290.63 290.52 291.23 294.17 292.64 294.05 293.92 293.57 296.87 294.84 173.93 173.65 174.08 175.52 173.98 174.61 173.92 171.98 173.10 171.62 369.33 370.55 369.96 374.42 370.27 371.49 371.39 372.60 373.93 375.03 451.27 456.49 442.89 453.53 455.04 457.45 451.50 454.29 458.28 451.13 175.78 175.20 176.69 176.70 176.69 177.88 176.11 175.81 176.71 176.12 5.5 6.3 5.4 6.2 4.7 4.8 4.8 5.0 4.4 2.6 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing. Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index on a 1977 = 100 base. Revised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978. 2 Construction 5.7 7.3 -3.1 1.5 1.2 .2 -3.1 58 -1.5 12 2.0 3.7 2.6 2.4 1.8 2.5 1.8 3.0 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.3 .6 -1.0 4 Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places. 5 Based on seasonally unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output per hour of all persons Period Output Hours of 2all persons 1 Compensation per hour 3 Implicit price deflator 5 Unit labor cost Real compensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 91.5 93.6 96.6 97.9 96.5 67.5 69.5 71.5 75.3 84.4 67.6 69.7 71.7 75.3 84.5 66.0 69.0 71.3 75.3 82.4 66.3 69.3 71.3 74.0 81.6 96.4 98.9 100.0 100.8 99.1 96.9 99.0 100.0 100.8 98.8 90.5 95.1 100.0 108.0 119.5 90.8 95.1 100.0 108.0 119.5 90.4 94.7 100.0 107.5 117.2 90.0 94.6 100.0 107.1 116.5 130.6 143.1 154.5 162.0 96.4 95.5 97.3 98.4 96.0 95.3 97.0 98.6 132.6 142.4 153.6 156.0 132.8 143.5 154.5 156.6 128.1 140.4 147.9 152.4 128.1 140.6 148.6 153.4 156.7 158.4 156.0 157.9 97.3 98.0 96.9 97.7 155.3 155.9 155.6 157.1 148.7 149.3 149.3 150.2 105.1 106.5 108.2 110.3 160.2 161.0 161.8 164.2 160.1 161.5 162.4 164.0 99.0 98.5 98.0 98.4 99.0 98.8 98.3 98.2 156.8 155.4 155.1 156.8 157.6 155.9 155.9 157.1 151.0 151.7 152.7 154.2 151.9 152.7 153.8 155.2 112.3 113.6 114.1 166.7 167.5 169.4 166.5 168.0 169.5 98.6 98.2 98.4 98.5 98.5 98.5 157.7 156.5 157.9 158.3 157.6 159.4 155.6 156.7 158.0 156.3 157.3 158.8 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector 86.2 89.3 92.4 94.8 92.5 86.8 89.7 93.0 95.3 92.9 78.4 80.7 86.1 91.7 89.9 78.0 80.3 85.8 91.7 89.8 90.9 90.4 93.2 96.8 97.2 89.8 89.4 92.2 96.2 96.6 58.2 62.0 66.1 71.4 78.1 58.7 62.5 66.7 71.8 78.5 90.8 92.8 95.7 97.3 95.9 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 94.6 97.6 100.0 100.5 99.3 94.8 97.8 100.0 100.6 99.0 88.2 93.8 100.0 105.5 107.8 87.8 93.7 100.0 105.7 108.0 93.2 96.0 100.0 104.9 108.6 92.6 95.8 100.0 105.1 109.0 85.6 92.9 100.0 108.5 118.7 86.1 93.0 100.0 108.6 118.4 1980 1981 1982 1983 .. 98.8 100.7 100.9 103.7 98.3 99.8 100.0 103.4 106.5 109.2 106.3 111.0 106.5 108.7 105.9 111.2 107.8 108.4 105.4 107.1 108.3 109.0 106.0 107.5 131.1 143.4 155.0 161.7 1982: HI IV 100.9 101.6 100.3 100.5 106.1 105.8 106.0 105.2 105.1 104.1 105.-7 104.7 1983: I II in 102.2 103.6 104.3 104.7 101.6 103.6 104.1 104.4 106.9 110.1 112.5 114.7 106.7 110.4 112.7 115.2 104.7 106.2 107.9 109.5 1984: I II r 105.7 107.0 107.3 105.2 106.6 106.4 117.8 121.0 121.6 118.0 121.0 121.3 111.4 113.0 113.3 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 1977 = 100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 1970 1971 1972 .. 1973 1974 .. IV m .... Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 0.8 3.6 3.5 2.6 -2.4 0.3 3.3 3.7 2.4 -2.5 -0.8 3.0 6.6 6.6 -2.0 -1.0 2.9 6.9 6.8 20 16 -.5 3.0 3.9 .4 13 — .4 3.1 4.3 .5 7.3 6.6 6.5 8.0 9.4 7.0 6.6 6.7 7.6 9.4 1.3 2.2 3.1 1.6 -1.4 1.0 2.2 3.3 1.3 14 6.4 2.9 2.9 5.3 12.1 6.6 3.1 2.8 5.0 12.2 4.5 4.4 3.4 5.5 9.5 4.8 4.5 3.0 3.8 10.2 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 2.2 3.3 2.4 .5 -1.2 2.0 3.2 2.2 .6 -1.5 -2.0 6.4 6.6 5.5 2.3 22 6.7 6.7 5.7 2.2 41 3.0 4.1 4.9 3.5 -4.1 3.4 4.4 5.1 3.7 9.6 8.5 7.7 8.5 9.4 9.6 8.1 7.5 8.6 9.0 .5 2.6 1.2 .8 -1.7 .4 2.2 1.0 .8 -2.0 7.3 5.1 5.1 8.0 10.7 7.5 4.7 5.2 8.0 10.7 9.8 4.7 5.6 7.5 9.0 10.3 5.1 5.7 7.1 8.8 1980 . 1981 1982 1983 -.5 1.9 .2 2.7 -.7 1.5 .2 3.5 -1.2 2.5 -2.6 4.4 14 2.1 26 5.0 -.7 .6 -2.8 1.7 -.6 .6 -2.8 1.5 10.4 9.4 8.1 4.3 10.3 9.6 8.0 4.9 -2.7 -.9 1.9 1.1 28 -.7 1.7 1.6 11.0 7.3 7.9 1.6 11.1 8.0 7.7 1.4 9.3 9.6 5.3 3.0 10.0 9.8 5.7 3.2 1982: III IV 2.4 2.7 3.6 1.1 -1.3 -1.2 -3.6 -3.8 -3.6 -4.0 7.5 4.5 7.5 5.1 .3 2.9 .3 3.5 5.0 1.7 3.7 4.0 2.3 1.8 2.0 2.4 1983- I II .., III IV 2.1 5.9 2.8 1.4 4.4 8.1 2.1 1.0 4.4 12.4 9.3 7.8 6.0 14.3 8.7 9.1 2.2 6.1 6.4 6.2 1.5 5.7 6.5 8.0 4.4 2.2 2.0 6.1 5.7 3.5 2.2 4.1 4.1 -2.1 -2.1 1.6 5.4 -.8 -1.9 -.3 2.2 -3.5 -.8 4.6 1.3 -4.2 .1 3.0 4.6 1.9 2.5 4.1 4.6 2.2 2.7 3.7 1984: I II Ill r.... 4.0 4.9 .9 2.9 5.5 -.7 11.4 11.2 2.0 10.3 10.6 1.0 7.2 6.0 1.1 7.2 4.8 1.7 6.2 1.9 4.5 6.1 3.7 3.8 1.2 -1.8 .9 1.0 0 .2 2.1 -2.9 3.6 3.1 -1.7 4.5 3.7 2.9 3.3 2.8 2.8 3.8 1 — .1 -3.0 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars, Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed. 4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers. 2 16 5 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production was unchanged in October following a decline of 0.5 percent in September. The index for October was 6.6 percent above its year earlier level. _^__^_ INDEX, 1967 = 100* (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967 = 100* (RATIO SCALE) 180 —TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 180 -UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCT1O 160 160 UTILITIES 140 140 MINING 120 120 1980 1981 1982 1984 1983 100 180 160 140 MANUF ACTURING PRODUCT!QN "N \s *.'lr -\ ^*^-N \ _— *.• +* NONDURA BLE ,'' s / '^^J~*~ * ^—x \y A DURABLE 120 ^-\./ lllllhlill Illllllllll Illllllllll 1980 1981 1982 1980 PERCENT* 1981 1982 1983 1984 90 .MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE ^~^ - 80 \S 70 n ml .111 ii Illllllllll 1983 60 1984 \r-_ Illllllllll Illllllllll 1980 1981 / Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 1982 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 1983 1984 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Period Index, 1967 = 100 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983- Oct Nov Dec 1984- Jan Feb Mar Apr May ... ... .. June July r Auff r Sept r Oet p 1 Manufacturing Percent change from year earlier Output as percent of capacity. ... . 129.3 117.8 130.5 138.2 146.1 152.5 147.0 151.0 138.6 147.6 155.0 155.3 156.2 158.5 160.0 160.8 162.1 162.8 164.4 165.9 166.1 165.2 165.2 Mining Total 87.95 100.00 1967 pTOpOTtion Capacity utilization rate, percent (Federal Reserve series) * Industry production indexes, 1967 = 100 Total industrial production -0.4 -8.9 10.8 5.9 5.7 4.4 -3.6 2.7 -8.2 6.5 14.2 15.1 15.5 15.4 15.9 14.9 13.7 12.7 12.3 10.8 9.4 7.4 6.6 129.4 116.3 130.3 138.4 146.8 153.6 146.7 150.4 137.6 148.2 156.2 156.4 156.8 159.5 161.4 162.1 163.4 164.2 165.7 167.3 167.8 166.9 167.2 Durable 51.98 125.7 109.3 122.3 130.0 139.7 146.4 136.7 140.5 124.7 134.5 142.8 143.6 145.0 148.6 150.5 151.4 152.6 153.3 154.9 157.2 158.1 157.2 157.3 Utilities Nondurable 35.97 134.6 126.4 141.8 150.5 156.9 164.0 161.2 164.8 156.2 168.1 175.6 174.8 173.9 175.2 177.2 177.6 179.1 179.9 181.3 181.8 181.7 180.8 181.4 6.36 115.3 112.8 114.2 118.2 124.0 125.5 132.7 142.2 126.1 116.6 118.3 121.1 123.7 124.8 124.1 123.8 123.3 125.0 127.0 129.9 128.5 128.4 123.7 5.69 143.7 146.0 151.7 156.5 161.4 166.0 168.3 169.1 168.7 172.4 176.5 176.3 182.5 181.0 176.5 180.0 182.7 182.3 184.3 181.8 180.6 180.2 180.3 Manufacturing Industrial materials 83.7 72.9 79.6 87.0 73.3 81.1 82.6 85.6 87.6 80.4 80.7 70.1 75.2 79.5 79.6 79.6 80.6 81.9 82.2 82.5 82.7 82.9 83.1 83.3 82.4 81.9 82.2 84.7 86.0 79.6 79.4 71.1 75.2 78.9 78.8 78.9 80.1 80.9 81.0 81.5 81.7 82.2 82.8 82.8 82.2 82.1 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Products Final products Consumer goods Period Total Durable goods Total 1967 proportion 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 . 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983- Oct Nov Dec 1984- Jan Peb Mar Apr May June r Julv . Aur rr Sept Oct p. Intermediate products 47.82 125J. 118.2 127,6 135.9 142.2 147.2 145.3 149.5 141.5 147.1 152.7 153.2 155.2 157.5 158.0 158.6 160.2 161.1 163.1 165.2 165.2 164.9 165.3 27.68 128.9 124.0 137.1 145.3 149,1 150.8 145.4 147.9 142.6 151.7 156.9 156.1 157.1 159.5 159.4 160.2 161.4 161.7 163.0 163.8 162,5 161.6 161.9 7.89 135.3 121.4 141.9 154.0 159.2 155.8 136.7 140.5 129.2 147.5 156.7 155.9 158.6 163.4 162.5 163.1 162.2 161.4 163.6 163.7 162.8 160.2 160.1 Nondurable goods 19.79 126.3 125.1 135.2 141.9 145.1 148.8 148.9 150.9 148.0 153.4 157.1 156.1 157.3 157.9 158.2 159.1 161.1 161.8 162.7 163.9 162.4 162.2 162.7 Total 20.14 120.0 110.2 114.6 123.0 132.8 142.2 145.2 151.8 139.8 140.8 147.0 149.1 151.8 154.9 156.1 156.4 158.5 160.3 163.3 167.0 168.8. 169;3 170.0 Business 12.63 142.4 128.2 135.4 147.8 160.3 171.3 173.2 181.1 157.9 153.3 161.3 164.1 167.3 170.7 171.9 172.1 173.5 176.5 181.1 185.5 187.8 i8mo 188.5 Defense and space equipment 7.51 82.4 80.0 79.8 81.3 86.5 93.4 98.2 102.7 109.4 119.9 122.9 124.0 125.7 128.3 129.5 130.1 133.2 133.1 133.5 135.9 136.8 138.0 139.0 Total 12.89 135.3 123.1 137.2 145.1 154.1 160.5 151.9 154.4 143.3 156.6 166.5 165.5 165.4 167.8 169.0 170.2 171.0 171.6 173.5 175.8 175.2 174.3 173.8 SupplCe Materials Equipment Construction supplies Business supplies 6.42 134.5 116.3 132.6 140.6 151.7 158:0 140*9 141.9 124.3 142.5 152.3 151.6 151.5 155.5 156.6 159.1 159.6 159.5 160.9 16k9 161.2 15917 158.3 6.47 136.0 129.7 141.7 149.5 156;5 163.1 162.8 166.7 162.1 170.7 180,6 179.4 179.3 180.1 181.3 181.3 182.3 183.5 186.1 189.5 189.0 188,8 39.29 132% 115.5 131.7 138.6 14S.3 156.4 147.6 151.6 133.7 145.2 154;0 154.5 154.5 156.6 159.4 160.4 161.5 162.0 162.9, 163.5 164.3 162.8 162.1 mentary 12.23 125.5 125.5 129.1 132.9 135.4 137.9 137.7 137.4 135.7 135.9 137.7 138.5 141.1 141.6 141.4 141.9 142.8 143.3 144,5 144.0 143.0 142.5 140.4 [1967=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Durable manufactures Period Total 1967 proportion 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983- Oct Nov Dec 1984- Jan Feb Mar Apr May T * June r July Aug rr Septp . Oct 6.57 123.1 96.4 109.7 111.1 119.9 121.3 102.3 107.9 75.3 85.4 95.3 92.2 90.4 93.2 98.4 97.5 99.3 98.2 97.9 94.5 95.3 93.3 94.0 Iron and steel Fabricated metal products 4.21 119.8 95.8 104.8 103.8 113.2 113.2 92.4 99.8 61.7 71.5 84.3 79.2 74.1 80.7 86.0 84.4 84.0 83.5 83.5 76.5 77.5 75.5 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 5.93 124.2 109.9 123.9 131.0 141.6 148.5 134.1 136.4 114.8 120.2 126.9 128.5 129.2 131.7 132.8 134.9 135.5 136.5 138.7 140.6 140.2 139.6 139.9 Nonelectrical machinery 9.15 140.1 125.1 134.5 143.6 153.6 163.7 162.8 171.2 149.0 150.6 159.2 161.8 164.3 169.5 170.9 171.9 174.9 178.8 182.0 186.9 189.6 189.7 190.9 Nondurable manufactures Transportation equipment Primary metals Electrical machinery Total 8.05 143.8 116,5 134.8 145.4 159.4 175.0 172.8 178.4 169.3 185.5 198.4 200.1 201.5 206.2 209.9 212.0 214.6 214.5 216.0 221.5 221.4 222.3 221.5 9.27 108.7 97.4 111.1 122.2 132.5 135.4 116.9 116.1 104.9 117.8 125.5 127.3 130.8 134.9 135.2 135.8 134.5 135.0 137.2 140.6 141.2 137.0 136.6 Motor vehicles and parts 4.50 128.2 111.1 142.0 161.1 169.9 159.9 119.0 122.3 109.8 137.1 150.9 152.9 158.9 166.3 164.4 165.8 161.9 163.0 165.3 169.0 169.9 160.6 159.0 Lumber and products 1.64 116.2 107.6 123.2 131.2 136.3 136.9 119.3 119.1 112.6 137.2 14L7 141.0 143.8 146.0 145.6 149.3 151.2 146.3 148.5 146.0 148.8 150.4 Apparel products 3.31 114.3 107.6 125.7 134.2 134.2 134.4 127.0 120.4 Printing and publishing Chemicals and products 4.72 118.2 7.74 159:4 147.2 170.9 185.7 197.4 211.8 207.1 215.6 196.1 215.0 228.4 225.6 221.1 m.3 122.5 127.6 131.5 136.9 139.6 144.2 144.1 152L5 162:7 162:0 161.7 163.4 164.8 165.2 166.3 167.5 169.0 172.6 174.1 173.8 174.0 221.5 224.8 225.0 228.3 227.9 231.0 232.0 231.5 230.0 Foods 8.75 124.0 123.4 133.0 138.8 142.7 147.5 149.6 152.1 151.1 156,4 157.6 157.1 157.7 159.4 160.0 161.2 163.1 164.2 165.1 164.9 164.6 NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Construction contracts 2 Private Total new construction expenditures Period Residential Total Commercial and industrial New housing units Total » Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1977 = 100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) Billions of dollars 1976 . 1977. 1978 1979 1980 1981 . 1982 1983.. 151.1 173.8 205.6 230.4 230.7 239.1 230.1 262.2 112.0 135.7 159.7 181.6 175.7 185.8 179.1 211.4 1983: Sept Oct. Nov Dec. 1984: Jan Feb Mar..... . Apr y May June July Aug " Sept". Oct p . 281.7 267.9 267.0 263.9 280.9. 300.4 309.7 308.6 316.4 315.3 311.0 311.9 315.3 229.6 219.2 217.4 213.3 230.0 248.1 255.0 254.1 261.2 257.8 254.8 255.3 257.8 60.5 81.0 93.4 99.0 87.3 86.6 74.8 111.7 128.6 118.6 113.5 109.7 121.9?' 137.4 141.1 136.6 138.4 136.4 135.3 134.0 132.8 47.3 65.7 75.8 78.6 63.1 62.7 51.9 86.1 19.9 22.5 29.6 39J 43.8 51.3 54.6 48.7 31,5 32.2 36.7 42.7 44.7 47.9 49.7 51.0 39.1 38.2 45.9 48.8 55.0 53.3 51.0 50.8 79.0 100.0 114.0 122.0 107.0 110.0 112.0 138.0 49.8 47.8 49.8 49.6 53.9 56.0 59.6 61.0 64.9 63.0 61.8 64.6 68.2 51.3 52.8 54.2 54.0 54.1 54.7 54.2 56.5 57.9 58.4 57.6 56.7 56.8 52.1 48.8 49.6 50.6 50.9 52.3 54.8 54.5 55.2 57.5 56.2 56.6 57.5 143 r !37 145 134 150 150 144 145 165 148 152 151 144 146 Annual rates Annual rates , 93.8 94.2 94.9 95.0 96.9 102.3 102.4 102.7 106.4 105.0 105.0 105.2 104,7 1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alteration 5, not shown separately, 2 F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971 592 739 977 1,059 904 919 690 750 830 856 884 803 931 751 884 960 1,013 888 957 1,011 901 937 for floor space. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Informatiore*Systems Company, P. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New private homes New private housing units Period Units started, by typ»of structure Total 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 .. 1981 1982 1983 ~.. 1,537.5 1,987.1 2,020.3 1,745.1 1,292.2 1,084.2 1,062.2 1,703.0 1 unit 1,162.4 1,450.9 1,433.3 1,194.1 852.2 705.4 662.6 1,067.6 2-4 units 85.9 121.7 125.0 122.0 109.5 91.1 80.0 113.5 5 or more units Units authorized 289.2 414.4 462.0 429.0 330.5 287.7 319.6 522.0 Units completed Homes sold Homes for sale at end1 of period ,296.2 ,690.ft ,800.5 ,551.8 ,190.6 985.5 ,000.5 ,605.2 ,377.2 ,657.1 ,867.5 ,870.8 ,501.6 ,265.7 1,005.5 1,390.3 646 819 817 709 545 436 412 623 353 402 414 3 398 336 272 251 300 ,650 ,649 ,602 ,799 ,902 1,727 1,758 1,745 1,768 1,565 1,506 1,440 1,418 1,567 1,445 1,489 1,606 1,565 1,590 1,654 1,756 1,739 r l,718 1,684 1,642 624 636 755 681 712 682 649 616 635 611 557 679 301 304 300 302 303 320 328 333 339 342 346 345 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) *5.6 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.3 5.7 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1983: Oct Nov. . Dec 1984- Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug r Sept r Oct" 1 .. 1,672 1,730 1,694 1,980 2,262 1,662 2,015 1,794 1,877 1,754 1,554 1,679 1,515 1,017 1,074 1,021 1,301 1,463 1,071 1,196 1,131 1,084 990 932 1,020 925 96 130 133 114 148 137 169 116 107 118 113 103 116 559 526 540 565 651 454 650 547 686 646 509 556 474 Seasonally adjusted. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable with earlier data. 3 New series beginning March 1979. 2 5.5 5.6 5.5 6.0 NOTE.—Units authorized beginning 1978 relate to 16,000 permit-issuing places; data for 1913-77 are for 14,000 places. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturing and trade sales fell 0.4 percent in September and inventories rose $3.5 billion. According to advance data, retail sales fell 0.1 percent in October following a rise of 1.2 percent in September. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 600 550" — sS^~"~ 500 450 1 1 / MAN! JFACTUR1NCJAND TRA DE INVENTO RIES S~^ - 400 350 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) I6U 150 140 L INVENTOR ES 130 ^^^" """" 120 ^** *110 ^ ^^ s — ^/"^-"~ 100 x"* ~" - j~* — -T" 80 MA NUFACTURI NG AN D TRADE SA LES 300 ** 90 — DETAIL SALE* _ 70 — 250 ~~ — 60 50 _ 200 lllllllllll lllllllllll lllllllllll lllllllllll lllllllllll 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 RATIO* 150 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE 1.40 100 l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l 1980 1981 lllllllllll 1982 1983 1.20 1980 1984 1984 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE" Manufacturing and trade 1 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Sales Inventories 3 Inventories 3 Sales 2 Period 2 Inventory-sales ratio 4 Retail Wholesale Sales 2 Invento-3 ries Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Manufacturing and trade 1 Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 204,277 229,624 260,263 297,565 327,113 355,762 343,504 367,096 318,544 351,055 398,457 449,542 491,431 523,623 505,546 514,336 50,694 55,987 66,117 78,680 92,658 100,673 94,765 98,649 64,078 72,311 85,568 98,008 111,792 115,854 115,563 118,067 54,781 60,435 67,242 74,948 80,064 86,960 89,547 97,831 18,150 20,724 23,211 25,179 24,365 26,306 27,041 32,095 36,631 39,711 44,031 49,770 55,699 60,654 62,506 65,735 79,273 89,530 102,504 110,592 115,550 125,710 125,384 135,843 37,841 43,135 49,858 53,413 53,952 58,559 56,748 63,447 41,432 46,395 52,646 57,179 61,598 67,151 68,636 72,396 1.48 1.46 1.44 1.43 1.45 1.43 1.50 1.37 1.38 1.40 1.43 1.44 1.41 1.39 1.39 1.33 1983: Sept.. . Oct Nov Dec 379,229 382,457 386,564 395,682 506,984 509,171 511,453 514,336 102,171 104,210 103,793 106,892 115,674 116,825 116,958 118,067 99,537 100,923 101,896 102,438 32,905 33,882 34,641 35,532 66,632 67,041 67,255 66,906 132,142 132,777 134,622 135,843 60,627 61,048 62,441 63,447 71,515 71,729 72,181 72,396 1.34 1.33 1.32 1.30 1.33 1.32 1.32 1.33 1984: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug r Sept* Get" 401,133 398,815 401,905 405,880 412,725 414,124 411,410 411,176 409,476 518,062 527,216 532,766 541,060 545,912 546,834 551,366 556,519 559,981 110,125 108,328 109,553 111,043 115,112 114,401 113,310 112,564 111,454 119,201 120,411 121,477 123,785 124,368 123,994 126,227 126,676 127,568 106,602 105,482 103,873 107,505 108,237 109,322 107,442 106,606 r 107,871 107,717 37,127 36,909 35,306 37,436 37,912 38,687 37,452 36,781 r 36,666 37,630 69,475 68,573 68,567 70,069 70,325 70,635 69,990 69,825 r 7 1,205 70,087 137,977 142,731 143,910 146,883 146,951 145,359 145,120 146,318 147,041 63,749 66,513 66,946 69,010 68,277 66,896 66,141 66,602 67,445 74,228 76,218 76,964 77,873 78,674 78,463 78,979 79,716 79,596 1.29 1.32 1.33 1.33 1.32 1.32 1.34 1.35 1.37 1.29 1.35 1.39 1.37 1.36 1.33 1.35 1.37 1.36 1976 1977 1 2 3 See page 21 for manufacturing. Monthly average for year and total for month. Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. 20 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In September, manufacturers' shipments and orders fell while inventories rose. In October, according to advance data, durable goods shipments rose and new orders fell. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 240 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 320 - INVENTC>RIES 280 240 200 160 r*-—1^——— ^..—-' - 7 ^^ """!r 1OTAL '-'— — / DU ?ABLE GOOt )S 120 100 pjpnc 200 - NEW OR 40 . ,^-n ^y^ r 1 r~ r-^1 TOTAL 120 100 80 Kir^Kj )URABLE GC 60 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 160 ^ — --• 80 40 DURABLE GOODS Jl_ ^% _ «—.«* -\/*~ "~^ S HZ: /-] tr^t NONDURAI JLE GOODS iiiiiiiini Illllllllll Illllllllll iniiiinii iniiiiiiii RATIO* 2.2 INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO 2.0. 1.8 1.6 60 1.4 40 liiiiliiin Illllllllll I l l l l l l l l l l I N l l i l M I I I l l l l l l l l l l 1980 1983 1982 1984 1981 1.2 1980 1981 1982 *SEASONALtY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1983 Manufacturers' shipments l Manufacturers' new orders l Manufacturers' inventories 2 Durable goods Period Total Durable goods 1984 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Nondurable goods Durable goods Total Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, nondefense Nondurable goods Manufacturers' unfilled3 orders Manufacturers' inventory shipments ratio 4 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983: Sept Oct Nov Dec 1984- Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Ausr Sept T Oct p 1 2 3 98,802 113,202 126,905 143,936 154,391 168,129 159,193 170,617 50,689 59,267 67,848 76,060 77,550 83,872 76,859 85,126 48,113 53,935 59,057 67,876 76,841 84,257 82,334 85,491 175,193 189,214 210,385 240,942 264,089 282,059 264,599 260,426 112,581 121,601 137,825 160,451 174,552 186,053 175,009 171,571 62,612 67,613 72,560 80,491 89,537 96,006 89,590 88,855 99,543 115,032 131,546 147,403 156,161 167,761 157,389 173,433 51,398 61,082 72,339 79,451 79,360 83,562 75,129 87,806 12,799 15,291 19,458 23,231 23,259 24,050 20,681 22,764 48,145 53,950 59,207 67,953 76,801 84,199 82,260 85,627 182,499 203,475 259,755 301,982 323,312 318,794 296,147 330,122 177,521 177,324 180,875 186,352 88,963 89,181 92,311 96,351 88,558 88,143 88,564 90,001 259,168 259,569 259,873 260,426 170,084 170,219 170,656 171,571 89,084 89,350 89,217 88,855 180,336 182,911 186,606 188,374 91,509 94,776 97,991 98,444 25,295 25,499 24,680 24,893 88,827 88,135 88,615 89,930 316,782 322,369 328,099 330,122 1.69 1.61 1.57 1.57 1.66 1.64 1.73 1.52 1.46 1.46 1.44 1.40 184,406 185,005 .. . 188,479 187,332 189,376 190,401 190,658 192,006 190,151 95,283 96,297 96,990 95,697 97,944 99,042 98,390 101,035 98,943 99,324 89,123 88,708 91,489 91,635 91,432 91,359 92,268 90,971 91,208 260,884 264,074 267,379 270,392 274,593 277,481 280,019 283,525 285,372 171,549 173,203 175,751 177,993 180,578 182,452 184,559 187,142 188,915 89,335 90,871 91,628 92,399 94,015 95,029 95,460 96,383 96,457 188,671 191,336 196,477 189,715 193,680 190,620 194,037 192,578 189,817 99,439 102,345 105,183 98,317 102,256 99,171 101,704 102,015 98,676 94,647 25,093 27,018 26,860 25,885 28,958 28,029 27,648 26,499 27,835 24,777 89,232 88,991 91,294 91,398 91,424 91,449 92,333 90,563 91,141 334,385 340,725 348,717 351,099 355,398 355,625 358,990 359,564 359,232 1.41 1.43 1.42 1.44 1.45 1.46 1.47 1.48 1.50 Monthly average for year and total for month. Book value, end of period. End of period. mts are the same as sales. 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In October, the producer price index for oH finished goods fell 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 0.1 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods fell 0.1 percent. Prices of capital equipment fell 0.6 percent. INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 320 FINISHED GOODS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ^5UMER GOOD? FYfl UDING FOODS 300 INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 320 300 ^-?i»_ ^~m* "* 280 — 260 280 *••* TOTAL FINISHED ttOODS > *\ *%^ CAPITAL E 3UIPMENT ,*"X.'-— _ '260 ' \ CONSUMER F OODS """ 240 240 — .& +* „ — 220 220 ^^^/ — f^Sy 200 200 s'^2 — 180 S^ ,'~' — 180 *>*"** — *&£^160 140 160 Illllllilll Illllllilll 1976 1977 Illllllilll Illllllilll 1978 1979 Illllllilll 1980 1 1 1 l l l l l I I Illllllilll Illllllilll 1982 1981 1983 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 140 1984 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Intermediate materials Finished goods Total finished consumer goods Total Foods and feeds l Other Total Foodstuffs and feedstuffs Other Nondurable Capital equipment Finished goods excluding consumer foods Period Total finished goods Consumer foods Consumer goods Total Total 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983- Oct Nov Dec 1984: Jan Feb Mar Anr May June July Auer Sept T Oct 1 170.6 181.7 195.9 217.7 247.0 269.8 280.7 285.2 180.4 189.9 207.2 226.2 239.5 253.6 259.3 261.8 166.1 177.7 190.7 213.3 247.8 273.3 285.8 290.8 162.6 174.3 186.7 211.5 250.8 276.5 287.8 291.4 144.5 152.8 166.9 183.2 206.2 218.6 226.7 233.1 174.8 189.3 200.0 231.3 283.9 319.6 333.6 335.3 173.4 184.6 199.2 216.5 239.8 264.3 279.4 287.2 169.7 180.7 194.9 217.9 248.9 271.3 281.0 284.6 189.1 201.5 215.6 242.2 280.3 306.0 310.4 312.3 185.3 190.5 203.1 226.1 252.6 250.3 239.4 247.9 189.4 202.3 216.5 244.4 282.3 310.1 315.7 317.1 202.7 209.2 234.4 274.3 304.6 329.0 319.5 323.6 190.2 192.1 216.2 247.9 259.2 257.4 247.8 252.2 228.5 245.0 272.3 330.0 401.0 482.3 473.9 477.4 287.1 286.9 287.4 264.8 263.9 265.8 292.3 292.5 292.4 292.8 292.9 292.4 233.0 233.8 234.0 338.1 337.5 336.5 288.6 289.0 289.8 286.6 286.3 286.7 258.4 258.9 257.8 320.6 321.0 321.5 329.2 330.4 333.6 258.2 259.6 263.6 482.3 483.1 484.4 289.1 290.2 291.4 291.4 291.1 291.1 292.2 291.9 291.4 290.9 272.8 274.5 276.4 274.4 271.4 270.3 274.1 273.7 272.5 272.7 292.3 293.1 294.0 294.8 295.4 295.8 295.9 295.7 295.4 294.8 292.0 292.7 293.6 294.0 295.0 295.5 295.2 294.5 294.0 293.8 234.0 235.2 237.3 237.2 236.8 237.1 237.3 238.1 237,7 235.5 335.7 336.1 336.0 336.7 338.9 339.5 338.8 336.9 336.2 337.7 290.5 291.7 292.5 294.3 293.9 294.2 295.2 296.2 296.3 294.6 288.7 289.8 291.0 290.6 290.3 290.2 291.3 290.7 290.0 289.9 316.2 316.6 317.1 317.0 317.6 319.3 319.5 261.1 256.5 259.8 260.3 259.8 257.7 253.0 250.1 246.2 243.8 321.2 322.2 323.8 323.9 324.9 326.4 326.1 325.7 325.6 326.2 336.0 330.9 337.1 336.9 333.8 330.9 331.3 327.2 327.0 324.0 269.4 261.1 271.5 268.3 260.9 255.4 256.8 252.3 252.2 249.4 479.9 481.4 479.0 485.0 490.8 493.5 491.8 488.6 488.0 484.3 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 22 Durable Crude materials 320.3 321.6 321.0 320.5 320.1 320.5 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES In October, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.4 percent seasonally adjusted (0.3 percent not seasonally adjusted). The index was 4.2 percent above its level in October 1983. INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO S<:ALE) INDE,K, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 320 "320 UNADJUSTED r- 300 —* 300 P/--1 280 280 / 260 260 S 240 220 f 200 /I 240 ALL ITEMS 220 200 ,, 180 180 _^- ^ ^ 160 140 Illllllllll M nil in ii 1976 Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 1977 SEE NOTE ON TABLE EiELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENr OF LABOR 160 1978 Illllllllll 1980 1979 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1981 Illllllllll 1983 1982 . 140 1984 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967 = 100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Transportation Housing Shelter Period All items 1 Food* Total* Total Renters' costs2 NSA- ReL imp.5 1976 1977 V . . .. 1978 1979 . . 1980...... 1981 1982 1983 1983: Oct Nov Dec 1984: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct 100.0 18.7 170.5 180.8 181 5 192 2 195.4 211.4 2174 234.5 246.8 254.6 2724 274.6 289.1 ; 285.7 298.4 291.7 302.6 293.5 303.1 294.1 303.5 295.4 305.2 300.2 306.6 302.2 307.3 301.8 308.8 301.7 309.7 300.9 310.7 301.3 311.7 302.2 313.0 304.1 314.5 303.8 315.3 304.9 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 December 1982=100. 3 Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol 4 37.6 174.6 186.5 202.8 227.6 263.3 293.5 314.7 323.1 326.0 327.4 328.1 329.6 331.1 331.2 333.3 334.1 334.9 336.7 338.7 340.2 340.5 21.5 179.0 191 1 210.4 239.7 281.7 314.7 337.0 344.8 349.3 350.7 351.8 353.0 353.8 355.3 357.6 358.7 360.0 362.5 364.3 366.1 367.4 7.0 103.0 104.6 105.0 105.3 105.7 106.0 106.5 107.4 107.8 108.2 108.9 109.5 110.0 110.5 Homeowners' costs 2 Maintenance and repairs NSA NSA 14.0 102.5 103.9 104.3 104.5 104.9 105.1 105.6 106.2 106.5 106.8 107.6 108.1 108.7 109.1 0.5 199.6 214.7 233.0 2564 285.7 314.4 334.1 346.3 351.1 353.4 354.7 356,7 353.5 355.3 356.3 357.3 358.9 360.3 360.1 362.7 361.6 beginning September 1981. Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc.5 also included through 1982. Relative importance, December 1983. Fuel and another utilities Apparel and upkeep Total1 New cars Motor8 fuel Medical care Ener- gy 4 All items less food, energy, and shelter 8.2 5.2 21.8 3.5 5.9 6.1 11.9 47.9 182.7 202.2 216.0 239.3 278.6 319.2 350.8 370.3 372.2 374.4 373.8 378.2 384.8 380.9 383.9 384.6 385.4 388.6 391.7 392.9 389.9 147.6 154.2 159.6 166.6 178.4 186.9 191.8 196.5 198.2 198.5 198.5 199.0 198.5 198.6 198.5 198.6 198.1 199.0 200.8 202.1 203.2 165.5 177.2 185.5 212.0 249:7 280.0 291.5 298.4 304.4 305.5 306.1 306.7 306.6 309.4 311.2 312.7 312.1 311.1 311.2 312.7 314.9 135.7 142.9 153.8 166.0 179.3 190.2 197.6 202.6 205.5 205.3 205.7 205.6 206.4 207.4 207.6 207.2 207.3 208.3 209.4 210,5 210.9 177.9 188.2 196.3 265.6 369.1 410.9 389.4 376.4 383.2 381.6 379.8 375.9 370.5 374.0 375.4 376.1 370.4 364.0 361.2 365.2 371.6 184.7 202.4 219.4 239.7 265.9 294.5 328.7 357.3 362.9 364.7 366.0 368.6 371.5 373.5 375.3 377.3 379.0 381.1 382.2 383.4 385.4 189.3 207.3 220.4 275.9 361.1 410.0 416.1 419.3 424.2 424.5 423.3 159.9 169.5 179.1 191.5 208.3 228.1 245.6 258.4 262.2 263.5 264.2 265.8 266.7 267.8 269.1 270.0 270.7 271.6 272.7 273.9 274.8 421.7 422.7 421.8 424.7 425.4 422.6 421.2 421.8 424.4 425.6 NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers. Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Period Change from preceding period Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate Consumer goods Consumer goods Consumer goods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Poods Total finished goods Excluding foods Foods Capital equipment Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 5.5 25 6.9 11.7 7.4 7.5 1.4 2.1 2.3 6.6 3.7 6.9 9.2 12.8 11.8 7.1 3.7 .6 6.7 6.0 6.7 8.5 17.5 14.2 8.5 4.2 -.8 10.8 4.4 6.5 7.8 11.1 13.5 9.2 4.0 1.6 8.2 6.4 7.3 7.9 8.8 11.4 9.2 3.9 1.9 Change, month to month 1983: Oct Nov Dec 1984- Jan Feb Mar Apr May J T r June r July . "v Aug Sept r Oct „ 0.2 — .1 .2 1.0 3 .7 .6 .4 .4 0 — .1 0 .4 -.1 2 2.6 .6 .7 -.7 11 -.4 1.4 -.1 4 .1 -.2 -0.2 .0 -.2 0.0 .1 .3 2.7 .8 1.1 8.8 5.8 5.8 -.1 .2 .3 .1 .3 .2 I -.2 2 j .2 .4 .3 .6 i .1 .3 .3 .0 -.6 2.8 4.7 5.7 3.2 1.2 -.4 1.1 1.1 .4 -1.8 12.6 17.1 16.9 2.4 -4.4 -8.5 -.4 3.4 3.3 -2.0 NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. 0.4 -.8 -1.4 -1.1 3 1.7 2.8 3.2 2.6 1.6 — .7 20 -1.9 1.5 .3 1.8 2.7 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.5 4.1 3.6 2.4 .2 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.2 .7 .6 2.7 3.8 3.8 5.3 3.1 2.3 1.2 3.2 2.9 -.8 2.8 2.7 3.4 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.2 1.2 0 -.3 10.7 11.3 11.2 7.4 5.8 3.4 1.0 -.6 -2.8 -1.2 -.3 -.5 2.1 2.0 2.8 4.0 3.4 3.1 3.3 3.1 2.6 .2 2.0 2.3 2.8 2.9 2.4 2.1 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.4 .8 1.4 2.1 2.2 1.2 .3 — .1 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Transportation Housing Shelter Period All items * Food Total 1 Total i Homeowners' costs Renters' costs Fuel and other utilities Appare! and upkeep Total x New cars Motor fuel 2 Medical care Ener- gy 3 All items less food, energy, and shelter Addendum: All items, percent change (annual rate) From previous quarter 4 From 3 months earlier From 6 months earlier From year earlier NSA NSA Change, December to December, NSA 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 7.0 4.8 6.8 9.0 13.3 12.4 8.9 3.9 3.8 6.5 .6 8.0 11.8 10.2 10.2 4.3 3.1 2.6 7.5 5.4 7.6 9.9 15.2 13.7 10.2 3.6 3.5 7.3 4.2 8.7 11.5 17.4 15.1 9.9 2.4 4.7 5.T 4.5" 11.2 9.0 8.1 5.9 16.0 13.6 14.5 9.7 1.8 2.3 4.5 4.2 3.2 5.5 6.8 3.6 1.6 2.9 9.8 8.8 4.3 7.7 18.2 14.7 11.0 1.7 3.9 7.3 4.8 7.2 6.2 7.4 7.5 6.8 1.6 3.4 11.0 2.6 4.9 8.5 52.2 18.9 9.4 -6.5 -1.7 9.9 10.1 8.8 8.8 10.1 10.0 12.5 11.0 6.4 0.3 j .2 01 — .4 5 0.3 .5 .4 -1.0 14 .9 .4 .2 -1.5 — 1.7 8 1.1 1.8 .7 .8 .5 .5 .5 .5 .6 .3 .3 .5 11.6 6.9 7.2 8.0 37.4 18.1 11.9 1.3 .5 9.1 5.8 6.5 7.7 11.3 13.5 10.4 6.1 3.2 6.4 7.0 5.2 6.5 7.2 9.9 9.4 6.1 5.0 Change, month to month 1983: 1984: Oct Nov Dec 0.4 .4 .2 0.4 .2 .4 0.2 .4 .2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct .6 .4 .2 .5 .2 .2 .3 .5 .4 .4 1.6 .7 -.1 -.0 -.3 .1 .3 .6 — .1 .4 .5 .5 .0 .6 .2 .2 .5 .6 .4 .1 0.4 .4 .3 0.4 .4 .3 0.4 .4 .2 .3 .2 .4 .6 .3 .4 .7 .5 .5 .4 .4 .3 .5 .8 .4 .4 .6 .6 .5 .5 .4 .2 .5 .6 .3 .3 .7 .5 .6 .4 1 2 3 02 .6 2 1.2 1.7 -1.0 .8 .2 .2 .8 .8 .3 -.8 0 .2 0 0.5 .4 .2 .3 -.3 .1 — .1 .1 -.3 .5 .9 .6 .5 .2 -.0 .9 .6 .5 -.2 -.3 .0 .5 .7 Includes items not shown separately. Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981. Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc., also included through 1982. 4 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. 24 -.0 .4 .5 .1 -.2 .0 .5 .5 .5 .2 -0.2 .1 -.3 0.5 .5 .3 __.4 .2 -.2 .7 .2 -.7 -.3 .1 .6 .3 .6 .3 .4 .5 .3 .3 .3 .4 .4 .3 4.5 5.0 3.7 3.5 4.6 4.6 4.0 4.4 4.2 4.3 2.9 3.2 3.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.3 3.6 3.3 2.6 3.7 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.6 4.3 4.1 3.4 3.6 3.9 3.7 4.1 4.6 4.7 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 Data beginning January 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers. Data beginning January 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs and therefore are not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers fell 0.7 percent in November and prices paid by farmers were unchanged. INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 180 180 160 160 PRICES PAID 140 140 120 120 PRICES RECEIVED 100 100 80 80 60 RATIO^ 140 mill III 1 1 1 1 1 I I I I I 60 RATIO^ 140 120 120 - RATIO • 100 100 80 80 60 1976 1977 1978 1979 1981 1980 1982 60 JHD illl 1983 1984 V RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1977 = 100] Prices paid by farmers Prices received by farmers Period All farm products Livestock and products Crops All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates 1 Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates Production items Ratio 2 102 100 115 132 134 139 133 134 102 100 105 116 125 134 121 127 101 100 124 147 144 143 145 141 95 100 108 123 138 150 157 161 95 100 109 125 139 151 155 159 97 100 108 125 138 148 150 153 107 100 106 107 97 93 85 84 Nov Dec 135 140 134 136 136 143 162 163 160 161 154 155 83 86 1984- Jan Feb Mar Apr May 144 144 145 146 144 144 144 143 139 138 137 138 137 139 140 144 145 142 144 136 138 131 150 151 151 151 145 143 145 143 141 r !39 142 164 165 165 166 166 166 165 165 165 164 164 162 163 164 164 164 163 162 162 161 160 160 156 156 157 158 157 157 156 155 154 153 153 88 87 88 88 87 87 87 87 84 84 84 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983: June July Aug Sept Oct Nov 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by have been converted to a 1977 = 100 base to facilitate comparison with other index Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES Ml declined in October while growth in the broader monetary aggregates was little changed. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,200 3,200 2,800 [2,800 2,400 2,000 |2,000 1,600 1,600 M2 *• 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 600^ 600 500 500 Ml 400 400 300 linn- 300 1976 1977 1978 1979 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 * AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period 1976: 1977: 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: 1983- Dec Dec. Dec Dec. Dec r Dec r Decr Decr Oct r Nov r Dec r 1984: Jan r Feb r Mar r . Apr r May 7 " June r July r Aug r Septp r Oct Ml M2 M3 Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCDs) Ml plus overnight RPs and Eurodollars, MMMF balances (general purpose and broker /dealer), MMDAs, and savings and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, term RPs, term Eurodollars, and institution-only MMMF balances 310.4 335.4 363.] 389.1 414.9 441.9 480.5 525.4 521.7 523.1 525.4 530.1 533.0 535.3 535.5 541.2 546.3 545.8 546.7 548.9 545.5 1,163.6 1,286.7 1,389.1 1,498.5 1,632.6 1,796.6 1,965.4 2,196.3 2,167.3 2,182.2 2,196.3 2,206.8 2,222.6 2,230.0 2,242.9 2,258.6 2,272.1 2,281.9 2,291.1 2,305.8 2,317.2 1,311.9 1,472.9 1,647.1 1,804.8 1,990.0 2,238.2 2,462.5 2,710.4 2,658.9 2,689.3 2,710.4 2,723.8 2,747.0 2,767.8 2,792.4 2,818.3 2,839.5 2,860.5 2,872.2 2,890.6 2,917.3 1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. NOTE.—The nontransactions portion of M2 is now being seasonally adjusted as a whole to reduce distortions caused by substantial portfolio shifts arising from regulatory and financial changes in 26 L M3 plus other liquid assets 1,516.6 1,704.7 1,910.6 2,117.1 2,326.2 2,599.8 2,870.8 3,178.7 3,116.4 3,147.2 3,178.7 3,201.4 3,231.6 3,273.6 3,299.3 3,330.3 3,371.3 3,407.0 Debt Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors (monthly average) l 2,513.4 2,829.1 3,200.0 3,583.6 3,926.2 4,311.9 4,710.0 5,224.6 5,124.7 5,170.5 5,224.6 5,282.8 5,341.7 5,396.7 5,455.9 5,517.6 5,571.7 5,632.2 5,694.0 5,742.8 Percent change from year or 6 months earlier 2 Ml 6.6 8.1 8.3 7.2 6.6 6.5 8.7 9.3 9.8 6.6 5.7 6.0 6.1 6.4 5.4 7.0 8.1 6.0 5.2 5.1 3.8 M2 13.7 10.6 8.0 7.9 8.9 10.0 9.4 11.7 8.4 7.7 7.6 7.7 8.3 7.8 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.3 6.9 6.7 M3 11.9 12.3 11.8 9.6 10.3 12.5 10.0 10.1 8.5 9.2 9.1 9.2 10.0 10.0 10.3 9.8 9.8 10.3 9.3 9.1 9.1 recent years, especially shifts to MMDAs in 1983. A similar procedure is being used to adjust the remaining nontransactions balances in M3. See p. 27 for components. Money stock series revised beginning 1980. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Debt 10.7 12.6 13.1 12.0 9.6 9.8 9.2 10.9 11.5 11.7 11.7 11.9 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.9 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.2 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Period Demand deposits Currency Other checkable deposits (OCDs) Overnight repurchase agreements (RPs), net, plus overnight Eurodollars NSA 1976: 1977: 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: Dec.... Dec .... Dec .... Dec .... Dec .... Dec.... Dec .... Dec .... 1983: Oct Nov Dec ... 1984: Jan Feb .. Mar Anr May June July Aug Sept r Oct r 80.5 88.5 97.4 106.3 116.7 124.0 134.1 148.0 224.4 239.6 253.8 261.9 266.5 236.2 239.7 243.7 2.7 4.2 8.5 17.1 27.6 77.4 102.4 r 128.9 146.0 243.6 147.2 242.8 148.0 243.7 r 149.9 150.2 150.9 151.8 152.9 154.2 155.0 156.0 156.7 157.2 r 244.5 243.8 244.0 245.3 245.2 248.2 247.1 245.5 246.4 243.8 127.3 128.3 r 128.9 r 130.8 134.0 r 135.4 r 133.3 r 138.0 r 138.8 r 138.5 r 139.9 140.8 139.6 r Money market mutual fund balances General purpose and broker/ dealer Institution only NSA NSA 10.6 14.7 20.3 21,2 28.3 35.9 44.1 56.2 2.4 2.4 6.4 33.4 61.6 150.6 185.2 138.2 0.6 .9 3.1 9.5 r !5.2 57.0 55.2 56.2 137.5 138.8 138.2 r 58.6 59.5 58.3 57.5 59.1 56.5 r 56.9 r 58.8 56.8 56.8 137.8 142.1 144.8 145.9 146.5 148.9 150.5 150.5 151.9 155.5 r Money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) 51.1 43.2 42.8 43.5 r 43.2 r 43.5 44.6 r 45.0 r 45.0 r 45.3 r 45.7 r r 46.1 r 46.2 46.9 52.2 Large denomination time deposits l Term repurchase agreements (EPs) Term Eurodollars (net) NSA NSA Savings bonds 43.0 376.0 452.8 491.3 480.8 423.1 401.4 345.7 362.1 312.9 391.0 446.0 521.9 635.8 731.4 827.3 856.9 793.1 118.1 145.1 195.2 222.1 r 258.4 r 301.3 r 327.4 r 325.4 14.1 19.4 27.0 30.1 34.7 37.0 40.2 56.0 14.8 20.2 31.8 44.7 50.3 67.5 81.7 93.4 71.8 76.4 80.3 79.5 72.3 67.7 67.9 71.0 370.5 372.9 376.0 317.1 315.4 312.9 773.0 r315.1 785.5 r 320.3 793.1 r 325.4 47.3 53.4 56.0 86.8 91.7 93.4 70.7 70.8 71.0 380.3 386.0 392.5 396.4 394.6 392.9 r 389.2 r 383.8 383.4 386.8 309.9 306.6 305.5 305.5 305.5 r 305.1 r 303.3 r 299.8 298.9 297.4 53.3 54.5 55.9 59.8 61.6 59.6 59.6 63.4 64.7 67.3 90.6 90.7 93.9 93.3 93.3 r 88.2 r 86.7 r 84.6 83.3 79.6 71.2 71.7 72.2 72.5 72.8 73.0 73.2 38.0 r Small denomination time deposits l NSA r r Savings deposits 1 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. NOTE.—See note p. 26. Travelers checks are a component of money stock but are not shown here. 797.0 800.9 803.4 808.3 816.7 829.0 r 845.2 r 862.0 874.5 885.0 r 333.0 339.9 r 347.9 r 355.5 r 367.3 r 378.8 r 389.0 r 391.9 392.9 401.1 r Shortterm Treasury securities Bankers' acceptances Commercial paper 70.4 78.4 82.0 108.6 133.8 149.9 187.8 223.3 10.8 14.1 22.0 27.1 32.0 39.8 r 43.8 r 43.3 51.7 62.9 79.2 97.0 98.1 104.2 108.8 130.8 42.8 42.9 43.3 125.7 126.9 130.8 r 218.4 217.2 223.3 226.6 231.7 245.8 241.8 240.0 r 252.0 262.8 r r r r 42.7 41.6 42.4 r 43.1 r 45.3 r 46.9 r 47.3 r r 137.1 139.6 145.4 149.5 154.0 159.9 163.2 NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Series revised beginning 1980. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Net change in installment credit outstanding * Installment credit outstanding (end of period) Period Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 1983- Sept Oct Nov Dec 1984: Jan Feb Mar Anr May June . . July Ausr Sept , „ Revolving Mobile home Other Revolving 190,725 226,646 269,392 307,115 309,694 330,218 348,944 388,718 67,798 82,890 101,863 116,523 116,808 125,323 129,799 141,876 16,505 36,427 45,004 53,174 54,900 60,309 65,453 75,564 14,530 14,897 15,199 16,843 17,302 17,879 22,119 23,460 91,892 92,432 107,326 120^575 120,684 126,707 131,573 147,818 21,338 35,921 42,746 37,723 2,579 20,524 18,726 39,774 10,519 15,092 18,973 14,660 285 8,515 4,476 12,077 2,038 19,922 8,577 8,170 1,726 5,409 5,144 10,111 148 367 302 1,644 459 577 4,240 1,341 8,633 540 14,894 13,249 109 6,023 4,866 16,245 373,024 378,117 382,936 388,718 137,431 139,140 140,408 141,876 71,209 72,447 73,874 75,564 23,553 23,523 23,459 23,460 140,831 143,007 145,195 147,818 2,553 5,093 4,819 5,782 295 1,709 1,268 1,468 579 1,238 1,427 1,690 255 -30 64 1 1,424 2,176 2,188 2,623 393,187 399,795 405,665 412,073 422,306 430,131 437,237 443,235 447,518 143,982 146,781 147,107 149,265 152,954 155,851 159,273 161,050 162,367 76,069 77,342 80,304 82,172 84,989 86,558 87,198 88,512 89,836 23,368 23,241 23,526 23,811 24,113 24,567 25,029 25,602 25,920 149,768 152,430 154,728 156,825 160,250 163,155 165,737 168,071 169,395 4,469 6,608 5,870 6,408 10,233 7,825 7,106 5,998 4,283 2,106 2,799 326 2,158 3,689 2,897 3,422 1,777 1,317 505 1,273 2,962 1,868 2,817 1,569 640 1,314 1,324 -92 -127 285 285 302 454 462 573 318 1,950 2,662 2,298 2,097 3,425 2,905 2,582 2,334 1,324 1 For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month. Automobile Automobile Total 1976: 1977: 1978: 19791980: 19811982: 1983- Mobile home Other Total Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES Commercial and industrial loans rose again in October. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 1,800 1,600 — ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 1/400 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 LOANS AND LEASES 600 600 400 400 INVESTMENT IN OTHER SECURITIES 200 200 160 160 JS 120 INVESTMENT IN U.S. TREASURY SECURITIES 80 40 120 mi 11111111 Mill 1977 1976 1979 1978 80 III 1980 III 1982 1981 I III ill I 40 1984 1983 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AVERAGES OF WEDNESDAY FIGURES COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Depository institutions 3 All commercial banks l Loans and leases Period Total loans and investments 19761977: 19781979: 19801981: 19821983: 1983: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Oct Nov .. Dec 1984- Jan Feb..._ Mar Apr May " y ""June July Am? Sept r Octp Total 2 804. G 891.5 1,013.5 1,135.9 1,239.6 1,316.3 1,412.0 1,568.1 . 1 1,532.9 1,548.9 1,568.1 1,585.3 1,604.6 1,621.2 1,630.0 1,649.5 1,652.6 1,664.7 1,675.5 4 1,685.6 1,694.2 4 555.0 632.5 747.0 849.9 915.1 973.9 1,042.0 1,132.6 1,104.1 1,115.7 1,132.6 1,144.7 1,164.1 1,181.0 1,193.5 1,213.4 1,222.7 1,234.2 1,241.1 1,251.0 1,260.5 Commercial and industrial loans U.S. Treasury securities 190.9 210.9 245.9 291.2 326.8 358.0 392.3 413.7 404.7 407.8 413.7 418.4 423.9 434.1 437,2 447.6 453.2 456.6 459.7 4 46L2 465.0 100.8 99.8 93.8 94.5 110.0 111.0 130.9 188.0 182.3 186.2 188.0 188.7 188.2 186.9 185.6 186.1 181.7 182.8 184.8 183.7 182.8 Data are averages of Wednesday figures. Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. Data are averages of daily figures. 4 Beginning September 26, 1984 a transfer of loans from Continental Illinois National Bank to the FDIC reduced total loans and investments and total loans by $1.9 billion, commercial and industrial loans by $1.4 billion, and real estate loans (not shown here) by $0.4 billion. 2 3 28 Borrowings (millions of dollars, unadjusted) Reserves adjusted for changes in reserve requirements Investments Other securities 148.8 159.3 172.8 191.5 214.4 231.4 239.2 247.5 246.5 247.1 247.5 252.0 252.2 253.2 250.8 250.0 248.2 247.7 249.6 250.9 250.8 Total 25.62 26.65 27.93 29.12 31.07 32.14 34.34 r 36.14 r 36.16 r 36.10 r 36.14 r 36.36 r 37.03 r r37.10 si.n r 37.45 r 38.28 r 38.23 38.38 38.14 37.75 r r Nonborrowed 25.57 26.08 27.07 27.64 29.38 31.51 33.70 r 35.36 r 35.31 r 35.20 r 35.36 r 35.64 r 36.46 r 36.15 r 35.88 r 34.46 r 34.98 r 32Jl r 30.36 r 30.89 31.73 Eequired 25.35 26.46 27.70 28.79 30.55 31.82 33.84 r 35.58 r 35.65 r 35.57 r 35.58 r 35.74 r 36.08 r 36.39 r 36.62 r 36.87 r S?.52 r 37,63 r 37.70 r 37J2 37.14 Total Seasonal 53 569 868 1,473 1,690 636 634 774 844 906 '774 13 55 135 81 116 54 33 96 142 121 96 715 567 952 1,234 2,988 3,300 5,924 8,017 7,242 6,017 86 103 133 139 196 264 308 346 319 299 NOTE.—Beginning Dec. 1981, bank loans and investments and reserves aggregates have beer reduced because of shifts from U.S. banking offices to International Banking Facilities (IBFs). Reserves data revised beginning October 1983; revised data for earlier periods are not yet avail able. " I Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Uses Sources External Period Total Internal Credit market funds l Total Total 190.3 157.0 211.0 254.1 317.5 345.2 335.2 364.2 309.3 436.4 333.9 449.2 443.2 519.1 516.2 500.6 448.8 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 . 1983: I n m IV 1984- I r r np m 85.6 119.7 134.2 157.4 175.7 188.8 189.5 230.4 234.3 280.5 250.4 269.7 292.5 309.3 319.6 331.7 337.5 104.7 37.3 76.8 96.7 141.8 156.4 145.7 133.8 75.0 155.9 83.5 179.5 150.7 209.8 196.6 168.9 111.3 70.2 30.8 54.7 72.4 80.5 88.2 90.9 91.5 81.4 87.8 68.7 86.5 66.6 129.4 112.6 81.3 65.0 Securities and mortgages Loans and short-term paper 26.3 38.7 38.2 35.8 32.8 20.9 52.4 21.8 43.9 56.4 67.0 85.9 37.0 35.8 23 7 -76.9 -7.4 43.9 -7.9 16.5 36.6 47.7 67.3 38.5 69.7 37.5 31.4 1.7 .6 29.6 93.6 136.3 158.2 72.4 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained abroad. 2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. Total Other 2 34.6 6.5 22.1 24.3 61.3 68.2 54.8 42.3 64 68.1 14.8 93.1 84.1 80.5 84.0 87.6 46.3 190.1 150.9 201.8 237.6 293.6 343.7 317.7 334.2 258.0 384.3 282.3 390.4 395.4 468.9 483.5 458.3 443.0 Capital expenditures 3 137.9 109.7 148.3 175.1 201.6 219.4 221.2 271.3 229.6 256.2 206.9 255.3 270.6 291.9 354.5 364.3 386.8 Increase in financial assets 52.2 41.2 53.5 62.5 92.0 124.3 96.5 62.9 28.4 128.1 75.4 135.1 124.8 177.0 129.0 94.0 56.2 Discrepancy (sources less uses) 0.2 6.0 9.2 16.5 23.8 1.5 17.6 30.0 51.3 52.1 51.5 58.7 47.8 50.3 32.7 42.2 5.8 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars, except as noted] Current liabilities Current assets End of period Total SEC series: 2 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 QFR-FRB series: 3 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 .... 1983 1983- I n HI IV 1984- F HP Cash U.S. Government securities 492.3 529.6 599.3 697.8 790.7 50.2 53.3 59.0 66.3 71.1 7.7 11.0 10.6 12.8 12.3 735.4 759.0 827.4 912.7 1,043.7 1,214.8 1,327.0 1,418.4 1,432.7 1,557.3 1,444.2 1,468.0 1,522.8 1,557.3 1,600.6 1,630.8 73.2 82.1 88.2 97.2 105.5 118.0 126.9 135.5 147.0 165.8 143.1 147.9 150.5 165.8 159.3 155.5 11.1 19.0 23.5 18.2 17.2 16.7 18.7 17.6 22.8 30.6 26.0 28.2 27.0 30.6 35.1 36.8 Notes and accounts receivable Inventories Other current assets Total Notes and accounts payable Other current liabilities Net working capital Current ratio 1 248.2 288.5 322.1 193.3 200.4 225.7 263.9 313.6 35.0 43.8 55.8 66.4 71.7 304.9 326.0 375.6 450.9 530.4 211.3 220.5 282.9 340.3 402.3 93.6 105.5 92.7 110.7 128.1 187.4 203.6 223.7 246.9 260.3 1.615 1.625 1.595 1.548 1.491 265.8 272.1 292.9 330.3 388.0 459.0 506.8 532.0 519.2 577.8 525.3 r 539.3 565.0 577.8 596.9 612.6 319.5 315.9 342.5 376.9 431.8 505.1 542.8 583.7 578.6 599.3 577.6 576.2 597.3 599.3 623.1 633.3 65.9 69.9 80.3 90.1 101.1 116.0 131.8 149.5 165.2 183.7 172.1 176.4 183.0 183.7 186.3 192.5 453.4 451.6 495.1 557.1 669.5 807.3 889.3 970.0 976.8 1,043.0 983.4 990.2 1,026.6 1,043.0 1,079.0 1,111.5 269.8 264.2 282.1 317.6 383.0 460.8 513.6 546.3 543.0 577.9 530.9 536.6 559.4 577.9 584.1 606.0 183.6 187.4 213.0 239.6 286.5 346.5 375.7 423.7 433.8 465.2 452.6 453.6 467.2 465.2 495.0 505.5 282.0 307.4 332.4 355.5 374.3 407.5 437.8 448.4 455.9 514.3 460.8 477.8 496.3 514.3 521.6 519.3 1.622 1.681 1.671 1.638 1.559 1.505 1.492 1.462 1.467 1.493 1.469 1.483 1.483 1.493 1.483 1.467 206.1 221.1 1 Total current assets divided by total current liabilities. Based on data from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury. Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations, Effective mid-1982, responsibility for the Quarterly Financial Report was transferred to the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census from the Federal Trade Commission. 2 3 NOTE.—SEC series not available after 1974. See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census), Federal Trade Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates fell in November. PERCENT PER ANNUM i f: 16 3 I l\ 14 r : ! \ i 1 \ 1 LL k itKt*= /f DISCOUNT r- »*"' RATE I/ ' FEDERAL I l RESERVE X^P BANK OF Ji 1" NEW YORK \j ' 12 / 10 4 \ -x" ^'1 /-P ^•/X «i i i i i i i i i i i ' 1ll A :1 IL I J \: ' \ 14 \ A ^ *""\ \ f] t "* 12 **4 ^ i'l U ,A / / L : H \• nI \ „. ; •' / •\ / \ ; 10 / \ \ J 1 / ...--• g / (5 „.• •* i M . I hi" .77 M 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 11 1979 1978 1977 1976 /• • < =/" 4 Lz XJ '1 F 1i TREASURY -^^^ BILLS y : /^ '.U/ / \\ \ /i V 's ': CORPORATE Aaa BONDS 1 k-^NJ-S' v (MOODY'S) „ )f/ ^ 1 < / If 1 ' •* 1 \H . :": ?.,^ • : • ) lv r. 1 1 1 1 1111M 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 I 1 II 1 1980 11111111111 M i l l 1 i 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 l|l 4 1 11 i 1 1982 1981 1984 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW [Percent per annum] U.S. Treasury security yields Period 3-month bills 1 Constant maturities 3-year 1978 7.221 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 10.041 11.506 14.029 10.686 1983: 2 10-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor's) 3 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) 4 Prime commercial paper, 6 months 5 5 Discount rate (N.Y. F.R. Bank) 6 May... . June July... Aug Sent Oct Nov P 9.06 12.67 15.27 18.87 14.86 10.79 8.63 8.29 9.72 11.55 14.44 12.92 10.45 8.41 9.44 11.46 13.91 13.00 11.10 5.90 6.39 8.51 11.23 11.57 9.47 8.73 9.63 11.94 14.17 13.79 12.04 8.71 8.96 8.93 9.03 9.44 9.69 9.90 9.94 10.13 10.49 10.41 9.97 8.79 10.96 11.13 10.93 11.05 11.59 11.98 12.75 13.18 13.08 12.50 12.34 11.85 10.90 11.69 11.83 11.67 11.84 12.32 12.63 13.41 13.56 13.36 12.72 12.52 12.16 11.57 9.79 9.90 9.61 9.63 9.92 9.98 10.55 10.71 10.50 10.03 10.17 10.34 10.27 12.41 12.57 12.20 12.08 12.57 12.81 13.28 13.55 13.44 12.87 12.66 12.63 12.30 9.09 9.50 9.18 9.31 9.86 10.22 10.87 11.23 11.34 11.16 10.94 10.16 9.06 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-9.00 9.00-9.00 9.00-9.00 9.00-9.00 9.00-9.00 9.00-9.00 9.00-9.00 9.00-8.50 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.50 11.50-12.00 12.00-12.50 12.50-13.00 13.00-13.00 13.00-13.00 13.00-12.75 12.75-12.00 12.00-11.25 9.98 9.54 9.38 8.82 8.73 8.59 8.43 11.88 11.48 11.33 11.06 11.05 10.75 10.67 12.19 11.85 11.76 11.71 11.75 11.44 11.39 10.35 10.13 10.22 10.23 10.37 10.35 10.11 12.82 12.54 12.50 12.43 12.42 12.20 12.02 10.18 9.63 9.61 9.20 9.19 9.04 8.69 9.00-9.00 9.00-9.00 9.00-9.00 9.00-9.00 9.00-9.00 9.00-8.50 8.50-8.50 12.75-12.50 12.50-12.50 12.50-12.00 12.00-11.75 11.75-11.75 11.75-11.75 11.75-11.25 7.99 10.91 12.29 14.76 11.89 8.89 7.46 10.28 11.77 13.41 11.02 8.50 Open-close Nov Dec 1984- Jan. Feb Mar Apr Prime rate charged by banks 6 New-home mortgage yields (FHLBB) 7 9.56 10.78 12.66 14.70 15.14 12.57 Open-close 12.34 12.42 12.29 12.23 12.02 12.04 12.18 12.10 12.50 12.43 12.53 12.77 Week ended: 1984: Get 20 27 Nov 3 10 17 24 Dec 1 p 1 Rate on new issues within period; bank-discount basis. Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Series excludes public utility issues for January 17, 1984 through October 11, 1984 due to lack of appropriate issues. 8 Bank-discount basis. Prior to November 1, 1979, data are for 4-6 months paper. 2 30 6 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 7 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Rates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock price indexes rose in November. INDEX, DEC 31, 1965=50 INDEX, DEC. 31,1965=50 __ 1001 —1100 90 90 COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX (NYSE) EARNINGS-PRiCE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Common stock prices 1 New York Stock Exchange indexes (I)ec. 31, 1965 — 5 O) Common stock yields (percent) 5 2 Period Composite 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983: Nov Dec 1984- Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Au.fr Sept Oct Nov p Week ended: 1984: Nov 3 10 17 24 Dec 1 P 1 Industrial Transportation Utility Dividendprice ratio 53.70 58.32 68.10 74.02 68.93 92.63 95.36 94.92 96.16 90.60 90.66 90.67 90.07 88.28 87.08 94.49 95.68 95.09 95.85 58.23 64.76 78.70 85.44 78.18 107.45 110.77 110.65 112.16 105.44 105.92 106.56 105.94 104.04 102.29 111.20 112.18 110.44 110.91 43.50 47.34 60.61 72.61 60.41 89.36 97.68 98.79 97.98 86.33 86.10 83.61 81.62 79.29 76.72 86.86 86.88 86.82 87.37 39.22 38.20 37.35 38.91 39.75 47.00 48.50 47.00 47.43 45.67 44.83 43.86 44.22 43.65 44.17 46.49 47.47 49.02 49.93 56.65 61.42 64.25 73.52 71.99 95.34 94.48 94.25 95.79 89.95 89.50 88.22 85.06 80.75 79.03 87.92 91.59 92.94 95.28 820.23 844.40 891.41 932.92 884.36 1,190.34 1,250.01 1,257.64 1,258.89 1,164.46 1,161.97 1,152.71 1,143.42 1,121.14 1,113.27 1,212.82 1,213.51 1,199.30 1,211.30 96.02 103.01 118.78 128.05 119.71 160.41 165.23 164.36 166.39 157.25 157.44 157.60 156.55 153.12 151.08 164.42 166.11 164.82 166.27 5.28 5.47 5.26 5.20 5.81 4.40 4.31 4.32 4.27 4.59 4.63 4.64 4.72 4.86 4.93 4.62 4.54 4.62 4.61 95.98 97.33 95.68 94.90 95.04 111.38 112.80 110.80 109.76 109.64 87.62 88.94 87.04 86.04 86.84 49.44 50.21 49.68 49.67 50.19 94.78 96.99 95.11 93.99 94.67 1,211.97 1,230.85 1,205.36 1,200.56 1,204.07 166.52 168.89 165.86 164.68 164.87 4.58 4.49 4.61 4.67 4.66 Average of daily closing prices. * Includes 30 Socks"** ^^ **""* ^^ ^^ °" ^ ^^ 4 lncludes 500 stocks 8 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings- Finance Dow-Jones industrial average 3 Standard & Poor's composite index (194143 = 10)4 Earnings price ratio 12.03 13.46 12.66 11.96 11.60 8.03 8.51 r 9.58 10.58 price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. NOTE.— All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Bow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first month of fiscal year 1985 there was a budget deficit of $28.8 billion, compared to a budget deficit of $25.1 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 \- BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS 900 800 800 700 700 - BUDGET OUTLAYS V- 600 600 500 500 400 400 BUDGET SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-) i nn 0 _— L__ ~-—~^__ , _-— ^^ -TOO "\__-~— — Oftfi 1 1976 1 1977 i 1978 i 1979 1 1980 1 1981 1 1982 1 1983 - -200 ! 1984 1985 FISCAL YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Budget receipts Period Fiscal year or period: 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Transition quarter 1977 1978 1979 . 1980 1981 1982 1983 . . . . . 1984" 1985 (estimates): Mid-Session Review * First Concurrent Resolution First month: Fiscal year 1984 Fiscal year 1985 .... . 230.7 245.6 267.9 324.2 364.5 94.2 400.5 448.4 491.0 576.7 657.2 728.4 796.0 841.8 23.4 -14.8 4.7 -45.2 66.4 -13.0 -44.9 -48.8 -27.7 -59.6 -57.9 110.6 - 195.4 175.3 763.8 750.9 930.6 932.1 166.9 -181.2 45.2 52.3 70.2 81.0 -25.1 -28.8 1 Mid-Session Review of the 1985 Budget, Office of Management and Budget, August 15, 1984. First Concurrent Resolution on the 1985 budget, October 1, 1984. Budget surplus or deficit (— ) 207.3 230.8 263.2 279.1 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 2 32 Budget outlays Off-budget surplus or deficit (— ) 0.1 -1.4 8.1 -7.3 -1.8 -8.7 — 10.4 -12.5 14.2 -21.0 -17.3 -12 A -10.0 Total surplus or deficit (-) 23.4 -14.9 6.1 -53.2 73.7 -14.7 -53.6 -59.2 -40.2 -73.8 -78.9 127.9 -207.8 185.3 Federal debt (end of period) Gross Held by the public 437.3 468.4 486.2 544.1 631.9 646.4 709.1 780.4 833.8 914.3 1,003.9 1,147.0 1,381.9 1,576.7 323.8 343.0 346.1 396.9 480.3 498.3 551.8 610.9 644.6 715.1 794.4 929.4 1,141.8 1,312.6 -13.3 180.2 1,806.9 1,823.8 1,480.8 1.4 .8 -23.6 -28.0 1,389.2 1,616.0 1,153.5 1,333.3 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget, except as noted. FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first month of fiscal year 1985 budget receipts were $7.1 billion higher than a year earlier and budget outlays were $10.8 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BUDGET RECEIPTS 300 INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES, rt— ^-—^^^ 200 s& "" «**ss^ l f " ^---—" "" \ ~" I 1 1 1 200 ~~" _ 100 T " i I 300 OTHER RECEIPTS CORPORATION l» MCOME TAXES 100 0 •ssss*5*88**" " r i 0 700 700 BUDGET OUTLAYS 600 600 NONDEFENSE 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 1976 1977 1978 1979 1982 1980 1981 1984 1983 1985 FISCAL YEARS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Budget outlays Budget receipts National defense Period Total Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes Other Total Total Department of Defense, military International affairs Social securi- ty and medicare Health and income security Net inter- Other est Fiscal year or period: 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 p 1985 (estimates) l First month: Fiscal year 1984 Fiscal year 1985 279.1 298.1 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 „ 600.6 666.5 763.8 45.2 52.3 341.8 40.6 41.4 54.9 60.0 65.7 64.6 61.1 49.2 37.0 56.9 74.3 23.2 25.6 .5 .9 122.4 131.6 157.6 181.0 217.8 244.1 285.9 297.7 288.9 296.0 85.9 88.1 95.3 102.3 113.7 131.0 153.8 180.7 930.6 209.9 227.4 266.2 204.4 220.8 258.6 7.1 5.7 5.0 6.1 6.3 10.9 11.3 10.1 9.0 13.3 17.2 70.2 81.0 18.7 20.6 15.6 18.7 1.1 2.0 324.2 364.5 400.5 448.4 208.4 252.2 270.8 274.6 576.7 657.2 728.4 796.0 313.6 841.8 347.7 21.5 25.7 1 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1985 Budget, Office of Management and Budget, August 15, 1984. Note.—Starting in 1985 military retired pay will be financed from a trust fund in the income security function. The national defense function will include accrual charges to pay for retirement benefits earned by currently active duty personnel, and these will be offset in the undistributed offsetting receipts (employer share, employee retirement). 86.5 89.6 97.2 104.5 116.3 134.0 157.5 185.3 116.1 125.0 143.0 158.6 179.8 491.0 258.1 63.0 76.5 78.3 80.0 86.8 109.6 126.1 134.5 150.8 142.8 144.1 23.2 26.7 29.9 35.4 42.6 52.5 68.7 85.0 89.8 111.0 130.2 66.9 76.2 85.7 105.7 108.4 119.1 114.9 111.0 113.2 111.5 114.8 19.5 21.5 9.2 13.4 7.7 9.5 14.0 14.1 77.5 89.7 104.4 116.6 130.6 150.6 178.7 202.5 223.3 235.8 The Social Security Amendments of 1983 require that social security and medicare be shown in the budget as a separate function. In previous budgets social security was in the income security function and medicare was in the health function. Data for all periods in this table are shown on as comparabk a basis as is feasible. Data shown here exclude the transition quarter. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the third quarter, according to preliminary estimates, Federal receipts rose $3.1 billion (annual rate) and expenditures rose $16.3 billion, yielding a deficit of $176.9 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 900 800 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 -100 -100 -200 -200 1976 1980 1984 CALENDAR YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Government expenditures Federal Government receipts Period Total Fiscal year: 1979 1980 . 1981 1982 1983 Calendar year: 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1982: I II III IV 1983: I II Ill IV 1984- I ... II r m Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect biiiiness tax and nontax accruals Contributions for social insurance Total Purchases of goods and services Transfer payments Grantsin-aid to State and local governments Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Surplus or deficit Less: Wage accruals less disbursements 480.8 525.9 609.2 626.4 627.1 222.6 250.4 289.4 311.4 294.1 76.1 69.9 69.3 50.9 53.8 29.1 35.5 53.5 50.3 51.0 153.1 170.0 197.0 213.9 228.3 495.6 576.5 668.2 740.0 816.4 f64.1 189.3 218.4 250.6 273.2 201.8 239.4 279.5 310.6 344.6 79.1 86.7 90.1 83.4 85.7 40.6 50.7 67.7 82.3 90.3 9.9 10.4 12.5 13.0 22.2 -0.0 .0 .1 493.6 540.9 624.8 616.7 641.1 622.9 625.9 609.9 608.3 619.8 649.3 640.2 655.0 686.4 704.3 707.4 230:6 257.7 298.7 306.2 295.2 310.1 315.2 298.8 300.9 298.2 304.7 284.6 293.3 301.6 310.7 319,7 74.2 70.3 65.7 46.6 59.8 48.6 48.4 47.5 42.0 46.9 59.2 66.7 66.5 13.Q 75.6 66.4 29.4 39.0 56.4 48.4 52.4 50.6 47.3 47.5 48.2 47.1 53.8 54.0 54.5 54.1 55.9 56.2 159.5 173.9 204.1 215.5 233.7 213.7 214.9 216.1 217.1 227.6 231.7 234.9 240.7 257.6 262.0 265.2 509.7 602.1 689.1 764.9 819.7 729.3 737.9 773.6 818.9 805.6 816.7 821.1 835.5 847.6 868.0 884.3 £168.3 197.0 228.9 258.9 269.7 249.8 245.0 261.6 279.4 273.0 270.5 269.2 266.3 267.6 296.4 302.8 209.2 251.5 286.8 321.6 345.6 303.0 311.8 327.0 344.4 340.9 348.1 343.4 350.1 347.7 350.1 351.8 80.5 88.7 87.9 83.9 86.3 82.7 85.1 83.0 84.6 85.5 86.3 86.7 86.5 90.6 93.2 92.1 42.4 53.4 73.3 84.4 94.2 80.1 83.0 87.5 87.0 87.7 90.0 97.3 102.0 107,6 110.9 121.9 9.2 11.5 12.3 16.1 23.4 13.5 12.9 14.5 23.5 18.5 20.5 24.1 30.6 34.4 17.7 15.3 -.0 .0 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget. 34 -.0 — .4 .1 -.0 — .4 — .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 -1.3 — .4 .0 .2 .2 national income and product accounts -14.8 -50.7 -58.9 -113.6 -189.3 -16.1 -61.2 -64.3 - 148.2 -178.6 - 106.3 — 112.0 -163.7 -210.6 -185.7 -167.3 - 180.9 -180.5 -161.3 -163.7 -176.9 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES [1967 = 100] Consumer prices (unadjusted) Industrial production (seasonally adjusted) Period United States Canada Japan France Germany United Kingdom Italy United States l Canada Japan France Germany Italy United Kingdom 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 p 138.2 146.1 152.5 147.0 151.0 138.6 147.6 152.7 157.8 167.6 165.1 165.9 149.5 157.6 189.7 201.1 215.3 225.2 227.5 228.4 236.5 152 155 163 161 160 158 159 152.0 154.1 161.5 162.0 159.1 154.5 155.7 145.1 147.9 157.6 166.5 162.7 159.1 150.7 124.2 127.8 132.9 124.1 119.6 121.7 125.7 181.5 195.4 217.4 246.8 272.4 289.1 298.4 185.9 202.5 221.0 243.5 273.9 303.5 321.0 243.0 252.3 261.3 282.3 296.2 304.1 309.7 214.5 233.9 259.1 294.2 332.7 373.1 407.9 156.0 160.2 166.9 175.8 186.9 196.8 203.3 255.2 286.2 328.5 398.0 472.4 549.4 631.8 292.4 316.6 359.0 423.6 473.9 514.7 538.3 1983: Oct Nov Dec 155.0 155.3 156.2 164.5 165.9 169.0 241.4 246.4 248.2 155 161 160 158.0 160.1 161.2 148.6 152.8 146.0 127.7 128.2 129.3 302.6 303.1 303.5 326.5 326.5 327.5 314.2 312.2 311.4 419.2 420.9 422.4 204.9 205.2 205.7 660.4 667.0 670.3 547.3 549.2 550.7 158.5 160.0 160.8 162.1 162.8 164.3 165.9 166.1 r 165.2 1652 170.2 165.0 167.1 167.4 r 168.9 r 170.1 r !76.1 175.2 250.2 257.0 254.1 255.4 261.5 262.8 264.0 266.0 263.5 161 160 162 157 162 159 166 166 160 161.2 163.8 159.4 158.0 160.0 143.9 164.6 r 162.3 162.5 128.2 127.7 126.6 r 125.6 r 124.2 r 124.9 r 123.3 r 123.4 125.1 305.2 306.6 307.3 308.8 309.7 310.7 311.7 313.0 314.5 315.3 329.2 331.1 331.9 332.7 333.3 334.7 336.6 336.6 336.9 337.5 312.3 314.2 315.1 315.9 318.2 315.6 316.2 313.4 318.5 425.4 428.0 431.0 433.6 436.2 438.4 441.5 443.7 445.9 206.6 207.1 207.3 207.7 207.8 208.6 208.2 207.8 208.0 678.3 685.8 690.6 695.4 699.6 703.8 705.9 708.0 713.0 720 1 550.4 552.6 554.4 561.8 563.9 565.3 564.7 570.0 571.1 1984- Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug . Sept p Oct p 1 Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. r Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, Office of Trade and Industry Information, Trade Statistics Division, in International Economic Indicators. U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Merchandise exports 1 Period Total domestic and foreign exports Total 2 Food, beverages, and tobacco Crude materials and fuels Merchandise trade balance Merchandise imports General imports 3 Domestic exports Manufactured goods Food, beverages, and tobacco Total 2 Crude materials and fuels Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (customs value) Manufactured goods Total (c.i.f. value) 4,257 5,398 6,379 8,360 9,352 10,427 8,823 11,042 13,368 15,504 18,519 21,415 11,873 12,002 13,621 13,754 15,107 15,124 15,478 17,948 17,652 17,827 18,766 17,402 16,889 22,376 18,326 20,994 22,779 -2,275 21,240 -2,647 22,490 -4,797 23,477 -5,195 25,465 -7,300 24,185 -6,052 24,033 -5,678 27,794 -8,260 27,305 -8,935 27,992 -9,044 29,711 -10,847 26,789 -7,619 26,543 -7,723 33,503 -12,440 27,895 -8,531 30,824 -11,253 27,567 Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (f.a.s.) Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (c.i.f.) 762 -688 -2,430 -2,590 -2,300 -2,020 148 — 1,440 -3,265 -3,530 -3,364 -3,030 F.a.s. value Monthly average: 1975* 1976* 1977* 1978* 1979* 1980 8,971 9,602 10,103 11,973 15,155 18,386 8,847 9,462 9,919 11,762 14,886 18,043 1,399 1,436 1,330 1,717 2,049 2,534 1,266 1,341 1,548 1,746 2,352 2,810 1981 1982 1983 1983- Sept Oct Nov Dec 1984- Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Julv Augr Sept Oct 19,473 17,683 16,707 17,257 17,033 17,063 17,298 18,327 17,212 17,727 17,522 17,950 17,633 19,442 18,036 18,177 18,387 19,075 17,256 16,326 16,892 16,580 16,664 16,895 17,848 16,786 17,212 17,072 17,464 17,178 18,963 17,578 17,676 17,862 2,767 2,248 2,248 2,314 2,452 2,605 2,449 2,402 2,103 2,457 2,184 2,162 1,847 2,195 2,100 2,637 2,315 2,752 2,793 2,463 2,691 2,345 2,270 2,532 2,664 2,532 2,791 2,523 2,833 2,603 2,740 2,642 2,378 2,243 5,913 6,437 6,679 7,873 9,716 11,991 8,209 10,290 12,533 14,563 17,455 20,406 827 991 1,186 1,312 1,478 1,546 2,716 3,457 4,463 4,325 5,949 7,831 Customs value 12,857 11,643 11,034 11,147 11,241 11,277 11,407 12,097 11,372 11,147 11,560 11,628 11,837 12,988 11,766 11,924 12,436 21,748 20,329 21,504 22,451 24,333 23,115 22,976 26,586 26,147 26,771 28,368 25,569 25,356 31,883 26,567 29,430 1 Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginning January 1978. 2 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. 3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. NOTE. — Imports on c.i.f. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with ear ier periods. 1,529 1,485 1,568 1,466 1,747 1,565 1,591 1,759 1,773 1,865 2,028 1,761 1,576 2,002 1,711 1,803 7,739 6,200 5,670 6,465 6,855 5,891 5,360 6,063 6,039 6,308 6,636 5,618 6,071 6,494 5,788 5,809 -3,306 -3,558 -5,783 -6,221 -8,432 -7,122 -6,735 -9,468 - 10,093 - 10,264 -12,190 -8,839 -8,910 -14,061 -9,859 -12,647 -9,180 Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Islands exports are reflected in the figures for domestic and foreign exports combined and trade balance. *Data for 1975-79 for domestic and foreign exports combined, total general imports, and trade ba ance include trade of the Virgin Islands. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the third quarter the merchandise trade deficit rose to $33.3 billion, from $25.7 btHion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOHA^RS* 10 BILLI ONS OF DOLLARS* 10 BALANCE ON GOODS 5 5 0 /^ /^^"^ J BALANCE ON CURREIW ACCOUNT \S ^ *=\ ^ f \\ \^ \ in Pt \ Vi'A +'\ ^* \ /' ~~~"' % s,/ N 0 nn ^V MER CHANDISE TRA DE -15 BALANCE \ -10 1e \\ \\ \ N ^ \ -20 A \ OK «.^^ OK % ^i on -30 -35 -35 1 40 1 1 1 1 1 1977 1976 i l l 1 1 1 1 1 I l l l 1978 1979 1980 1981 1 1 1 1982 1 1 i 1 1 i -40 1984 1983 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits (—)] Merchandise l 2 Period Exports 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1982: I n ffl TV 1983- I n TTT IV 1984: I HP m '. Imports Investment income3 Net balance Net Net military transactions Receipts Payments -12,564 13 311 -14,217 21 680 -32,914 42063 -52,359 56059 -53,495 12,787 15,975 17,962 20,565 31,218 30,443 34,052 27,803 23,508 -746 559 1,528 621 -I,ll8 -2,237 -1,115 195 515 Net travel and transportation receipts c -2,812 -2,558 -3,565 -3,573 -2,935 -997 144 -1,008 -4,584 Other services, net 3 Balance on goods and services * 4,598 c- 22,729 4,711 9,205 5,272 -9,894 6,013 - 10,340 5,735 4,686 7,277 8,975 8,048 13,128 8,339 -1,141 8,704 -32,912 Remittances, pensions, and other unilateral transfers l Balance on current account -4,613 c 18,116 4,207 -4,998 -4,617 -14,511 -5,106 -15,446 -964 -5,649 1,898 -7,077 6,294 -6,833 -8,058 -9,199 -8,651 -41,563 107,088 114,745 120,816 142,054 184,473 224,269 237,085 211,198 200,257 -98,185 -124,228 -151,907 -176,020 -212,028 -249,781 -265,086 247 667 -261,312 8,903 9483 -31,091 -27,555 -25,512 -28,001 -36,469 -61,055 25,351 29,286 32,179 42,245 64,132 72,506 86,411 83,862 77,003 55,482 55,118 52,079 48,519 -62,546 -60,921 -64,442 -59,758 -7,064 -5,803 -12,363 -11,239 20,889 22,307 21,505 19,162 -13,653 -14,772 -14,390 -13,243 7,236 7,535 7,115 5,919 52 239 -2 94 -114 -247 -99 -548 49,246 48,745 50,437 51,829 -58,523 -63,615 -67,938 -71,236 -9,277 14 870 -17,501 -19,407 17,618 18,973 20,802 19,609 -12,380 -12,995 -13,630 - 14,490 5,238 5,978 7,172 5,119 790 53 -55 -273 -263 -1,131 -1,426 -1,764 2,142 -1,370 2,258 -7,712 2,107 -9,703 2,198 -14,127 -1,573 -2,943 -1,848 -9,560 -2,143 -11,846 -3,086 -17,213 53,935 54,597 54,990 79790 -80,333 -88,268 -25,855 -25,736 33 278 23,300 20,618 -15,552 -16,956 7,748 3,662 -370 -282 -1,400 -2,238 2,351 -17,526 2,293 -22,301 -2,147 -19,673 -2,101 -24,402 1 Excludes military grants. 2 Adjusted from Census data 3 OQ QOf* — OO,l/OO c for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. 36 2,160 2,005 2,118 2,054 2,270 3,729 -3,231 -3,908 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. -2,105 -1,802 -1,745 -2,406 ~~1651,927 -4,976 -6,314 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, U.S. claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $24.2 billion in the second quarter compared with a $2.0 billion decrease in the first quarter. Liabilities to foreigners and international financial institutions reported by U.S. banks (including U.S. Treasury securities) increased $28.2 billion in the second quarter compared with a $10.1 billion increase in the first quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 60 CHANGE IN FOREIGN ASSETS IN THE U.S.,NET -20 CHANGE IN U.S. ASSETS A BROAD, NET -40 -60 -60 1984 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] U.S. assets abroad, net [increase /eapit Period Total 1975. 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1982: I n m IV 1983: I n in IV 1984: I n*.... U.S. official reserve assets 1 2 Other U.S. Government assets Foreign assets in the U.S., net [increase /capital inflow (+)] 2 1 U.S. private assets Total Foreign official assets Other foreign assets Allocations of special drawing rights (SDRs) Statistical discrepancy Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy C U.S. official reserve assets, net 1 (unadjusted, end of period) -39,703 -51,269 -34,785 -61,130 -64,331 -86,118 -110,976 -118,898 -49,490 -849 -2,558 -375 732 -1,133 -8,155 -5,175 -4,965 -1,196 -3,474 -35,380 -4,214 44498 -3,693 -30,717 -4,660 57 202 3 746 -59,453 -5,162 72 802 -5,107 - 100,694 -6,143 107 790 5013 -43,281 15,670 36,518 51,319 64,036 38,752 58,086 81,313 95,181 81,722 7,027 17,693 36,816 33,678 - 13,665 15,497 5,003 3,318 5,339 8,643 18,826 14,503 30,358 52,416 42,589 76,310 91,863 76,383 -31,960 -41,409 -26,216 19 314 1 089 -1,132 -794 -1,950 803 -1,700 2 555 -1,086 -30,068 -38,577 -22,867 -16,279 28,344 33,772 18,384 14,680 -3,221 1,399 2,477 2,664 31,565 32,373 15,907 12,017 3,450 5,710 12,808 10,947 964 487 2 276 2,752 29,944 30,671 30,993 33,958 -24,364 -1,060 -9,223 - 14,843 -787 16 529 -953 -1,130 1 251 -1,204 1 429 -22,447 175 -8,548 12 461 15,888 12,452 19,578 33,804 -252 1,739 -.2,703 6,555 16,139 10,714 22,281 27,249 11,420 -1,833 1,491 -1,748 -579 439 -2,518 2,657 34,261 33,876 33,066 33,747 1 989 -24,860 657 -566 2 037 -1,222 705 -23,073 15,660 35,934 -2,784 -571 18,444 36,505 6,002 13,328 154 -91 34,975 34,547 1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDRs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve position-in the IMF. 2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. 1,139 1,152 1,093 5,917 10,544 -2,023 12,540 25,404 24,982 22,275 32,916 9,331 16,226 18,747 19,312 18,650 18,956 26,756 30,074 33,958 33,747 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates... Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 , MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets Consumer Installment Credit Bank Loans and Investments, and Reserves Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function, Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis.. 32 33 34 T , INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. 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