Full text of Economic Indicators : November 1980
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96th Congress, 2d Session Economic Indicators NOVEMBER 1980 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1980 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) LLOYD BENTSEN, Texas, Chairman RICHARD BOLLING, Missouri, Vice Chairman SENATE WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) ABRAHAM RIBICOFF (Connecticut) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) GEORGE McGOVERN (South Dakota) PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland) JACOB K. JAVITS (New York) WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) JAMES A. McCLURE (Idaho) ROGER W. JEPSEN (Iowa) HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES HENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin) WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania) LEE H HAMILTON (Indiana) GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana) PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland) CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio) MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts) JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) JOHN M. ALBERTINE, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS CHARLES L. SCHULTZE, Chairman GEORGE C. EADS STEPHEN M. GOLDFELD [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—1st SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $1.30 a single copy or by subscription at $15.00 per year ($3.75 additional for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 11 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to revised estimates for the third quarter, gross national product rose $65.2 billion or 10.8 percent, both at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 0.9 percent from the second quarter level and the implicit price deflator rose at a 9.8 percent annual rate. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 2,600 2,600 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 2,400 2,400 2,200 2,200 2,000 2,000 GNP IN CURRENT DOLLARS 1,800 1,800 1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 GNP IN 1972 DOLLARS 1,000 1,00) 1975 1974 1972 1976 1977 1978 1980 1979 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS (Billions of current' dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Exports and imports of goods and services Government purchases of goods and services Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total 102 2 111 1 123 1 129 7 144 4 152 6 m fi 110.4 123. 2 137. 5 151 0 167. 3 191. 5 215. 4 231. 6 251. 8 283. 0 309 8 926. 2 978. 6 1, 057. 1 1 161 7 1, 288. 6 1 404. 0 1 539. 6 1 692. 1 1 877. 6 2 105. 2 2 350 6 460. 1 466. 6 477.8 501.2 163.6 161.7 162.9 178.4 103.4 106.0 109.0 114.6 60.2 55.7 53.9 63.8 296.5 304.9 314.9 322. 8 2, 272. 9 2, 296. 4 2, 381. 9 2, 451. 4 517. 2 528. 3 533. 6 186.2 193.3 191.4 119.6 124. 1 129. 1 66.6 69.2 62.3 331.0 335.0 342.2 2, 516. 1 2, 509. 9 2, 603. 3 1. 8 3 9 16 3 3 7 1 6 0 20 4 8 0 —9 9 — 10 3 4 6 54. 7 62 5 65 6 72 7 101 6 137 9 147 3 163 3 175 9 207 2 257 5 52 9 58 5 64 0 7^ Q 94. 4 131 9 126 9 155 4 185 8 217 5 2fi9 1 207 218 233 253 269 302 338 361 396 435 47fi 9 9 7 1 5 7 4 3 2 6 4 1979: I 2, 292. 1 1, 454. 2 II-. .2, 329. 8 1, 475. 9 III_. 2, 396. 5 1, 528. 6 IV._. 2, 456. 9 1, 580. 4 373.8 395.4 392.3 387.2 4.0 -8. 1 -2.3 -11.9 238.5 243.7 267.3 280.4 234.4 251.9 269.5 292.4 1980: I 2, 520. 8 1, 629. 5 II__- 2, 521. 3 1, 626. 6 III*. 2, 586. 5 1, 683. 3 387. 7 368.5 348.4 -13.6 -2.2 21.3 308. 1 307.0 313.2 321. 7 309.2 291.9 Final sales 21. 2 22. 1 26. 0 28 6 28. 7 34 1 39 4 43 3 50. 6 53 6 58 4 146. 2 140 8 160 0 188 3 220. 0 214 6 190 9 243 0 303. 3 351 5 387 2 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Nondefense State and local 76. 3 73 5 70 2 73 5 73 5 77 0 83 7 86 4 93. 7 99 o 108 3 935. 5 579. 7 982. 4 618 8 1, 063. 4 668. 2 1 171 1 733 0 1, 306. 6 809. 9 1, 412. 9 889 6 1, 528. 8 979. 1 1 702. 2 1 089 9 1, 899. 5 1, 210. 0 2 127. 6 1 350 8 2 368 8 1 509 8 1969-__ 1970 1971__, 1972 1973___ 1974 1975. _ _ 1976 . 1977 1978 1979 Total National defense 97 5 95 6 96 2 109 1 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS (Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Exports of goods Gross private domestic and services investment Personal conGross Change national sumpNonResi- in busition product Wot £Neii resiExports Imports dential ness in- exports expendfixed ventoitures dential fixed ries Period Total Federal State and local Final sales 9.4 -3.3 8.0 -9.8 6. 6 13. 1 14. 1 15.9 22.6 15.8 10.3 11. 0 17.6 62.2 67. 1 67.9 72.7 87.4 93. 0 90.0 96. 1 98.4 108.9 119.9 57.7 56.7 56.5 55.8 12.3 18. 1 7. 1 17.0 13.2 20. 1 20. 1 117.0 116.0 122.2 124 3 100.0 102.9 102. 1 104 1 2747 272.4 273. 1 277. 1 101. 1 98. 1 97.4 101. 1 173.6 174.3 175.6 176.0 1, 418. 4 1, 404 1 1, 426. 2 1, 439. 0 51.7 40.7 42.2 .3 2.6 25.0 28.3 32.2 131.7 128.3 127.6 106.7 99.9 95.4 280.0 280.9 278.0 104.3 106.7 103.9 175.7 174.3 174 1 1, 444 4 1, 406. 0 1, 417. 8 1, 078. 8 1969 . 1, 075. 3 1970 1, 107. 5 1971 . 1, 171. 1 1972 1, 235. 0 1973 . 1, 217. 8 1974 1, 202. 3 1975 1, 273. 0 1976 1977-- __ 1, 340. 5 1, 399. 2 1978 1, 431. 6 1979 655.4 668.9 691.9 733.0 767. 7 760.7 774 6 820.6 861.7 900.8 9245 114 3 110. 0 108. 0 116.8 131. 0 130. 6 113. 6 119. 0 129. 3 140. 1 148. 8 43.2 40.4 52.2 62.0 59. 7 45.0 38.8 47. 8 57.7 60. 1 56.7 1, 430. 6 1, 422. 3 1, 433. 3 1, 440. 3 921.8 915.0 925.9 935.4 147.2 146.9 150.7 150.5 1, 444. 7 1980:1 !!_._ 1, 408. 6 III*_ 1, 411. 7 936.5 910.8 921.9 151.2 145.3 143.5 1979: III III— IV — Government purchases of goods and services 10.6 43 6. 6 16. 5 9.7 1.4 — 6.2 -1.3 1.4 -.6 7.6 63.5 65.7 68.5 75.9 79.9 77.1 67.5 80.4 88.2 97.9 102. 3 256.7 250. 2 249.4 253. 1 252. 5 257.7 262. 6 263. 3 268.5 273.2 2743 121.8 110.7 103. 9 102. 1 96. 6 95. 8 96. 5 96. 4 100. 6 98. 6 99. 4 134 9 1, 068. 2 139. 5 1, 071. 0 145. 5 1, 100. 9 151. 0 1, 161. 7 155. 9 1, 218. 5 161. 8 1, 209. 9 166. 1 1, 212. 1 166. 9 1, 266. 4 167.9 1, 327. 4 174 6 1, 385. 1 174 9 1, 421. 9 IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1972=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Gross national product Period Personal consumption expenditures Total 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 . __ _- 1979: I... II. Ill IV 1980: I II III 9 NonresNonDurable durable Services idential goods fixed goods Residential fixed Exports and imports of goods and services Government purchases of goods and services Exports Imports Federal State and local 86.72 91.36 96.02 100. 00 105. 80 116. 02 127. 15 133. 71 141. 70 152. 05 165. 46 88.5 92.5 96.6 100. 0 105.5 116.9 126.4 132.8 140.4 150.0 163.3 93. 1 95.5 99.0 100.0 101.6 108.4 117.7 1243 129.4 136.5 1448 89.4 93.6 96.6 100. 0 107.9 123. 8 133.4 138. 1 144.7 1546 171.0 86. 1 90.5 95.8 100. 0 1047 113. 6 123.2 131.2 140.7 150.9 163.4 86. 6 91. 3 96.4 100. 0 103.8 115.3 132.2 138. 5 146.6 157. 8 171. 3 87.7 90.6 949 100. 0 110.8 122. 3 132.8 142. 5 159. 3 179.7 201.4 87.9 93. 1 96.6 100. 0 116.2 148. 3 163.6 169.9 178.7 190.3 2148 83.3 89. 1 93.5 100. 0 118.2 171.0 188.0 193. 3 210. 7 222. 1 256.2 80.0 86.4 92. 6 100. 0 105. 8 115. 9 127.5 134 6 143. 6 154 8 167.6 81.9 88.3 945 100. 0 107.3 118.4 129.7 138. 8 150.0 162. 1 177. 1 160. 22 163. 81 167. 20 170. 58 157.8 161.3 165. 1 169.0 142.4 144 1 145. 3 147.4 164 1 168.9 173.2 177.6 158.0 161.0 165.3 169.2 165.4 169.6 173.8 176.2 192.6 199.2 205.5 208.7 203.9 210. 1 218.7 225.7 2345 244.9 264 0 280.8 161.9 1648 167. 2 176.4 170.8 174.9 179. 3 183.5 174 48 178. 99 183. 23 174.0 178. 6 182.6 151.5 153. 6 156.9 184.1 188. 1 191.8 173.3 178.3 183.0 180.3 1846 188. 8 213.4 218.8 223. 3 2340 239.4 245. 4 301.5 309.5 306. 0 178.5 181.2 1842 188.4 192.3 196.6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Gross private domestic investment CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross national product Period 196g 1969 1970 —1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1979: I II III IV 1980: 1 II HI v Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars 9.1 7.7 5.0 8.2 10.1 11.6 8.1 8.2 11.3 11.6 12.0 11.3 10.6 6.7 11.9 10.5 10.8 .1 10.8 ' .». 44 2.6 -.3 3.0 5.7 5.5 -1.4 -1.3 5.9 5.3 4.4 2.3 1.1 -2.3 3.1 2.0 1.2 -9.6 .9 Implicit price deflator Gross domestic product Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) Chain price index 45 5.0 5.4 5.1 41 5.8 9.7 9.6 5.2 6.0 7.3 8.8 9.3 9.3 8.5 8.4 9.5 10.7 9.8 NOTE.—Annual changes from previous year and quarterly changes from previous quarter. 44 5.0 5.3 5.0 41 6.0 9.9 9.4 5.6 6.3 7.4 8.9 9.7 8.8 8.9 8.5 9.6 9. 1 9.8 43 5.0 5.2 49 40 6.0 10.2 9.3 5.6 6.4 7.5 9.3 9.9 9.5 10.0 9.4 10.9 9.7 9.5 Current dollars 9.1 7.8 5.0 8.1 10.1 11.5 7.9 8.5 11.2 11.5 12.0 11.2 10.1 6.9 11.5 10.7 10.5 10.9^ Constant (1972) dollars 44 2.6 -.3 2.8 5.8 5.4 -1.3 -1.1 5.7 5.3 4.4 2.3 .9 -2. 1 3.2 2.4 1.4 -9.7 .8 Implicit price deflator 45 5.1 5.3 5.1 41 5.7 9.3 9.7 5.1 5.9 7.3 8.7 9.1 9.2 8.0 8.1 9.0 10.7 10.0 Chain price index 44 5.0 5.3 5.0 41 5.9 9.6 9.4 5.6 6.2 7.4 8.8 9.6 8.7 8.4 8.1 9.2 9. 1 9.8 Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) 44 5.0 5.2 4.9 40 5.9 9.9 9.3 5.6 6.4 7.5 9.3 9.9 9.4 9.6 9. 1 10.6 9.7 9.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars) Period Current dollars 498.4 1968 541.8 1969 560.6 1970 602.5 1971 671.0 1972 752.0 1973 808.8 1974 8741 1975 988.0 1976 1, 106. 3 1977 1, 246. 9 1978 1, 387. 7 1979 1, 346. 4 1979:1 II..- 1, 370. 4 III... 1, 401. 3 IV.... 1, 432. 9 1980: I ... 1, 470. 1 !!_._ 1, 467. 4 III*. 1, 503. 5 [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollars)1 Total cost and profit 2 1972 dollars 581.6 607.3 600.6 619. 3 671.0 720.4 695.0 680.0 730.4 770.7 818. 7 8441 846.6 841.0 842.4 846.3 848.0 822.5 823.7 0.857 .892 .933 .973 1.000 1.044 1. 164 1.285 1.353 1.436 1.523 1.644 1.590 1. 629 1.664 1.693 1.734 1.784 1.825 Capital consumption Compenallowances Indirect sation Net with business of in3 employ- terest capital taxes ees consumption adjustment 0.074 0.089 .094 .079 . 103 .088 .094 . 110 .093 . 110 .095 . 112 . 116 . 123 . 136 .142 . 137 . 146 . 140 .151 .143 .155 . 150 .167 . 145 .158 . 165 . 148 . 151 . 170 . 154 .175 .159 .179 : 190 . 173 . 182 . 196 1 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1972 dollars. 2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. a Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Total Profits tax liability 0.553 0.017 0. 124 0.058 .022 .589 .109 .055 .628 .028 .086 .045 .645 .095 .029 .048 .661 .028 .107 .050 .032 .699 .105 .055 .796 .086 .043 .061 .848 .045 . 113 .060 .890 .042 . 138 .072 .951 .043 . 151 .077 1.020 .048 . 157 .084 1. 115 .056 . 157 .089 1.075 .052 . 161 .088 1. 104 .054 . 159 .085 1. 127 .057 .157 .091 1. 152 .060 .092 . 153 1. 182 .064 . 148 .098 .068 1.220 . 133 .071 1.234 .072 . 142 .082 Profits after tax* 0.066 .055 I .041 .046 .057 .050 .024 .053 .066 .074 .073 .068 .072 .074 .066 .061 .051 .062 .060 ComOutput penper sation hour per of all hour employ- of all ees employ(1972 ees dollars) (dollars) 7. 110 7. 137 7. 139 7.377 7.608 7.767 7.480 7.720 7.967 8.052 8. 122 8.088 8. 125 8.071 8.065 8.056 8.055 8.017 8. 110 3.931 4 197 4.482 4.758 5.032 5.431 5.951 6.549 7.092 7.654 8.281 9.014 8.734 8.909 9.093 9.279 9.524 9.778 10. 005 * With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] National income Period Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Compensation of employees J Farm Nonfarm Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment Total Capital consumption adjustment Net interest 1969 1970 1971 -_ 1972 1973 1974 _ 1975 1976. 1977 19781979 767.9 798.4 858. 1 951.9 1, 064. 6 1, 136. 0 1, 215. 0 1, 359. 8 1, 525. 8 1, 724. 3 1, 924. 8 571.4 609.2 650.3 715. 1 799. 2 875.8 931. 1 1, 037. 8 1, 156. 9 1, 304. 5 1, 459. 2 13.9 13. 9 14.3 18.0 32.0 25.4 23.5 18.3 19.6 27.7 32.8 52.3 51.2 53.4 58. 1 60.4 60. 9 63.5 71.0 80. 5 89. 1 98.0 18.1 18.6 20. 1 21.5 21.6 21.4 22. 4 22. 1 24.7 25. 9 26.9 81.4 67.9 77.2 92. 1 99. 1 83.6 95. 9 126.8 150.0 167.7 178.2 77.9 66.4 76.9 89.6 97.2 86.5 107.9 141.3 162. 0 180.8 194.9 83.4 71.5 82.0 96.2 115. 8 126.9 120.4 156.0 177. 1 206. 0 236.6 -5.5 -5. 1 -5.0 -6.6 -18.6 — 40. 4 -12.4 -14.6 — 15. 2 -25.2 -41. 8 3.5 1.5 .3 2.5 1.9 -2.9 -12.0 — 14. 5 -12.0 — 13. 1 -16.7 30.8 37.5 42. 8 47.0 52. 3 69.0 78.6 83.8 94. 0 109.5 129.7 1979: I IIIII - . IV 1, 869. 0 1, 897. 9 1, 941. 9 1, 990. 4 1,411.2 1, 439. 7 1, 472. 8 1, 513. 2 34.2 33.7 30.9 32.5 94.8 95.5 99.4 102. 1 27.3 26.8 26.6 27.0 178.9 176. 6 180.8 176.4 193.3 191.3 198.3 196.5 233.3 227.9 242.3 243.0 — 39. 9 -36. 6 -44.0 -46.5 -14.5 -14.7 -17.6 -20. 1 122. 6 125.6 131.5 139.2 1980:1 II III 9 2, 035. 4 1, 555. 2 2, 024. 6 1, 567. 2 2, 068. 6 1, 591. 5 27.7 23. 1 24. 1 102.3 97.4 101.5 27.0 27.3 27. 8 175.0 152.8 158.3 197.2 177.4 186. 6 260.4 204.8 222.4 -63.2 -27.4 -35.9 -22.2 -24.6 -28.2 148.1 156.8 165.3 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. »Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Total personal consumption expenditures Total durablel goods Motor vehicles and parts Retail sales of new passenger cars (millions of units) Nondurable goods Durable goods Furniture and household Total nondurable goods l Food Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil Services Domestics Imports ment 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 . 1974 1975 1976 1977 . 1978 1979 ... 579.7 618.8 668,2 733.0 809.9 889.6 979. 1 1, 089. 9 1,210.0 1, 350. 8 1, 509. 8 85.5 849 97. 1 111.2 123.7 122. 0 132.6 157.4 178.8 200.3 213.0 37.7 349 43.8 50.6 55.2 48.0 53.4 70.0 81.6 91. 2 91.5 35.0 36.7 39.4 448 50.7 549 58.0 64.0 70.9 77. 6 85.6 247.0 264.7 277.7 299. 3 333.8 376.3 408.9 443. 9 481.3 530. 6 596.9 126. 1 136. 3 140.6 150.4 168. 1 189.8 209.6 227. 1 246. 7 271.7 302.0 45.1 46.6 50.5 55. 1 61.3 65.3 70. 1 75. 9 82.4 91.2 99.2 20.4 22.0 23.4 249 27.8 36.4 39.5 42. 9 46.7 50.9 65.1 247.2 269. 1 293.4 322.4 352.3 391.3 437.5 488. 5 549.8 619.8 699.8 8.5 7. 1 8.7 9.3 9.7 7.5 7. 1 8. 6 9. 1 9.3 8.3 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.4 1. 6 1.5 2. 1 2.0 2.3 1979: I II III ..__ IV .... 1, 454 2 1, 475. 9 1, 528. 6 1, 580. 4 213.8 208.7 213.4 216.2 97.7 89.1 89.8 89.4 82. 1 84.2 87.3 88.9 571. 1 581. 2 604.7 630.7 292. 9 296.7 303. 1 315.6 95.5 96.9 101.0 103. 6 58.4 60.2 68.3 73.4 669.3 686.0 710.6 733.5 9.3 8.0 8.6 7.5 2.3 2. 5 2.2 2.4 1980: 1 II 1, 629. 5 1, 626. 6 1, 683. 3 220.2 195. 7 208.5 92.9 71.8 79.7 88.2 86.0 89.9 652.0 654 1 665. 8 322.6 325. 8 3349 103.9 104 1 107.3 83.6 83.6 79.2 757.3 776.9 808. 9 7.9 5.5 6.5 2.8 2.2 2.2 1 Total includes other items not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $23.4 billion (annual rate) in October, following a revised rise of $23.5 billion in September. Wages and salaries were up $18.5 billion in October/ of this very large increase, about $5.2 billion was due to a pay raise for Federal government employees and about $1.6 billion was due to a retroactive pay increase to communication workers. Excluding these special factors, wages and salaries were up $11.7 billion in October, compared with an increase of $12.8 billion in September. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 2,400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,00) 1,000 800 800 600 600 .,.."""* OTHER INCOME 400 400 TRANSFER PAYMENTS 200 200 160 160 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 II 1972 1973 1974 1975 1977 1976 1978 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE.- DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period 1980 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Wage Rental Total and Other Proprietors' income s income Transfer Divi- Personal personal salary labor 1 2 payinterest of dends 4 income disburseincome income ments 5 Farm Nonfarm persons 1 ments 1972 942.5 633.8 1973 1, 052. 4 701.3 1974 1, 154. 9 764.6 1975 1, 255. 5 805.9 1976— 1, 381. 6 890.0 1977... 1, 531. 6 984.0 1978 1, 717. 4 1, 103. 3 1979 1, 924. 2 1, 227. 6 1979: Oct 1, 981. 2 1, 257. 4 Nov.... 2, 005. 5 1, 271. 3 Dec 2, 028. 3 1, 282. 9 1980: Jan 2, 046. 5 1, 293. 0 Feb .. 2, 055. 7 1, 304. 2 Mar 2, 070. 0 1, 314. 0 Apr 2, 072. 0 1, 309. 0 May 2, 079. 0 1, 309. 7 June 2, 090. 4 1, 312. 5 July.... 2, 124. 2 1, 314. 9 Aug 2, 143. 0 1, 329. 9 Sept*___ 2, 166. 5 1, 342. 7 Oct 9 2, 189. 9 1, 361. 2 42.0 48.7 55.6 65. 1 77.4 91.8 106.5 122.7 128.0 129.6 131.2 132.8 134.4 136.0 137.4 138.7 139.9 141. 0 142.2 143.4 144.6 18.0 32.0 25.4 23.5 18.3 19.6 27.7 32.8 31.0 33.0 33.4 31.3 27.9 24.0 23.2 22.8 23.4 24.3 24. 1 23.8 23.9 58. 1 60.4 60.9 63.5 71.0 80.5 89. 1 98.0 101. 1 102. 1 103. 0 103.9 102.3 100.8 98.9 96.7 96.5 99.3 101.0 104.2 105. 1 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer eontributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. 1 Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare f itemS ™&nv?nt«y^^ ' 1 With capital consumption adjustment. 60 1979 21.5 21.6 21.4 22.4 22. 1 24.7 25.9 26.9 26.8 27.0 27.2 27. 2 26.6 27.2 27.4 27. 1 27.4 27. 6 27.8 28. 0 28. 2 24.6 27.8 31.0 31. 9 37.5 42. 1 47.2 52.7 53.6 54.2 55.2 55.8 56. 6 57.5 58. 1 58.5 59.2 59.3 59.8 59.9 60.2 74.6 84 1 103.0 115.5 127.0 141.7 163.3 192. 1 200.7 205.4 210.3 214. 1 217.2 220.3 225. 1 229. 1 232i 2 234.5 236.2 238.5 241.2 1041 118.9 140.8 178. 2 193.8 208.4 224 1 252.0 2648 265.9 268. 8 275.0 273.5 276.1 278.0 283.2 286.2 311.0 310. 5 315. 1 315.7 Less: Personal con- Nonfarm tributions personal a for social insurance income 342 42.2 47.7 50.5 55.6 61. 3 69. 6 80.7 82.2 83.0 83.6 86.7 87. 1 85.9 85. 1 86.8 87.0 87.5 88.5 89. 1 90.2 917.3 1, Oil. 9 1, 119. 3 1, 220. 8 1, 350. 6 1, 498. 1 1, 674 2 1, 873. 4 1, 931. 8 1, 953. 9 1, 976. 1 1, 995. 9 2, 008. 3 2, 026. 2 2, 028. 8 2, 036. 0 2, 046. 6 2, 079. 5 2, 098. 1 2, 121. 6 2, 144 7 * Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments, • Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysi, _ DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable income rose in the third quarter. 'BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,000 SCALE) 10,000 9,000 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 4,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 1972 1980 * SEASONALLY .ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS .Less: T «OCT . Ppr Period sonal Pertax sonal and income nontax payments Equals: Disposable persona] income Less: Personal outlays1 Per capita disposable personal income Equals : Personal saving Current dollars Billions of dollars 1971 1972______ 1973 ___ 1974 1975 1976— 1977 1978- _ 1979 859. 1 942.5 1, 052. 4 1, 154. 9 1, 255. 5 1, 381. 6 1, 531. 6 1, 717. 4 1, 924. 2 116. 3 141.2 150. 8 170 3 168 8 197. 1 226 4 259 0 299.9 742. 8 801.3 901 7 984. 6 1 086 7 1 184. 5 1 305 1 1 458 4 1, 624. 3 1972 dollars Per capita personal consumption expenditures Current dollars 1972 dollars Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of Population dispos(thou-2 able sands) perincome DoEars 685. 5 751.9 831 3 913 0 1 003 0 1 115 9 1 240 2 1 386 4 1, 550. 5 57. 3 49.4 70 3 71 7 83 6 68 6 65 0 72 0 73.8 3 588 3,837 4 285 4 646 5 088 5 504 6 017 6 672 7,367 3 714 3^837 4 062 3 973 4 025 4 144 4 285 4 449 4,512 3 227 3,510 3 849 4 197 4 584 5 064 5 579 6 179 6,848 3 342 3,510 3 648 3 589 3 627 3 813 3 973 4 121 4,193 9 A 1.4 ^ n 4 9 4.5 207 053 208, 846 210 410 211 945 213 56(1 215 203 91 fi RQR 218 594 220, 464 3.3 a cj o o 1 1 a a a n A Q 7 7 6.2 7 8 7 'I 7 7 58 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1979: !__„„ I, 852. 6 IL__ I , 892. 5 III... 1, 946. 6 IV... 2, 005. 0 280.4 290.7 306.6 321.9 1, 572. 2 1, 601. 7 1, 640. 0 1, 683. 1 1, 493. 0 1, 515. 8 1,569.7 1, 623. 4 79.2 85.9 70.3 59.7 7,157 7,275 7,430 7,606 4,536 4,510 4,501 4,502 6,619 6,704 6,926 7,142 4,196 4, 156 4, 195 4,227 1.2 -2.3 -.8 .1 5.0 5.4 4.3 3.5 219, 690 220, 166 220, 715 221, 285 1980: L _ « _ 2, 057. 4 320.0 1, 737. 4 1, 672. 9 II.... 2, 080. 5 324.6 755. 9 1, 669. 5 ro>_ 2, 144. 6 334.0 1,1, 810. 7 1, 725. 7 64.4 86.3 84.9 7,834 7,900 8,121 4,502 4,423 4,448 7,348 7,318 7,550 4, 223 4,098 4, 135 0 -6.8 2.3 3.7 4.9 4.7 221, 768 222, 277 222, 948 * Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). 2 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1 through 1973 and are averages of quarterly data beginning 1974. Quarterly data are average tor the period. 6 Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the third quarter, gross farm income rose $2.8 billion (annual rate) while net farm income was virtually unchanged from its second quarter level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) "1200 100 100 GROSS FARM INCOME 80 80 60 60 40 40 NET FARM INCOME 20 20 10 10 1974 1973 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 1981 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from farming Gross farm income Period Net farm income Cash marketing receipts Total l Total Livestock and products Crops Value of inventory2 changes Production expenses Current dollars 1967 dollars 3 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 71.0 98.9 98. 3 100.3 101.8 108. 1 126.9 149.6 61.2 87. 1 92.4 88.2 94.8 95.8 112.5 131.5 35.7 45.9 41.4 43.0 46. 1 47.4 59.0 68.6 25.5 41. 1 51. 1 45. 1 48.7 48.3 53.5 62.8 0.9 3.4 -1.6 3.4 -2.4 .6 .4 4. 1 52.3 65.6 72.2 75.9 83. 1 90.3 100.8 118.6 18.7 33.3 26. 1 24.5 18.7 17.8 26. 1 31.0 14.9 25. 1 17.7 15.2 11.0 9.8 13.3 14.2 1979: I II III IV____ 145.5 149. 1 149.9 154. 1 128.9 130.9 130.6 135.4 69.7 68.2 66.9 69.7 59.2 62.7 63.7 65.7 3.2 3.9 5.4 3.9 114.2 116.3 119.6 124.2 31.3 32.8 30. 3 29.9 15. 1 15.3 13.7 13.1 152.0 152.4 155.2 135.9 134.5 142. 7 69.1 63.4 70.9 66.8 71.1 71.8 4.0 2.0 -3.5 127.4 129.6 132.5 24.6 22.8 22.7 10.4 9.3 9. 1 1980: I _ _ _ II. Ill 1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. 69-700 0 - 8 0 - 2 s Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index (Department of Labor). Source: Department of Agriculture, except as noted. CORPORATE PROFITS In the third quarter, according to preliminary estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $17.6 billion (annual rate) while after-tax: profits prori rose $10.1 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 280 280 240 80 40 1980 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment 1 Profits after tax Domestic industries Nonfinaneial Period 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 .. 1977 1978 -1979 1979: I II- _ III IV 1980: I II III* Total 2 „ 77.9 66. 4 76. 9 89.6 97.2 86.5 107. 9 141.3 162.0 180.8 194.9 193.3 191.3 198. 3 196.5 197.2 177. 4 186.6 Total 74.2 62.6 72.4 84.7 90.4 76. 9 101.8 133. 1 152. 1 170.6 181.6 181.4 179. 6 182. 5 183.0 181. 1 164. 1 173.8 Financial 11. 3 12.6 14. 1 15. 4 16.2 14. 4 13.0 17. 8 23.8 29.7 33.2 31.9 32.0 33.8 35.0 34.7 31. 6 30.9 Total3 Manufacturing Wholesale and retail trade 62. 9 50. 1 58.2 69.3 74. 1 62. 5 88. 9 115. 3 128.3 140. 9 148.5 149. 6 147.7 148.7 148.0 146.5 132. 6 142. 9 36. 8 27. 1 32.4 40. 6 44. 1 36.6 48.3 65.7 73.5 81. 7 88.8 94. 1 90.6 86.4 84.0 93. 0 73.4 10. 1 9. 4 11.7 13. 3 14.7 12.9 20. 7 23.3 24. 1 23.0 23.7 18. 6 22. 4 26.5 27. 1 16.5 21. 7 1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 8 Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. 8 s Profits before tax Tax liability Total Dividends 83.4 71.5 82.0 96.2 115.8 126.9 120.4 156.0 177. 1 206.0 236.6 233. 3 227.9 242.3 243.0 260.4 204. 8 222.4 39.7 34. 5 37.7 41.5 48.7 52.4 49.8 63.8 72.6 84.5 92.5 91.3 88.7 94.0 96.1 102.4 77. 6 85.2 43.8 37. 0 44.3 54.6 67. 1 74.5 70.6 92.2 104.5 121. 5 144.1 142.0 139.3 148.3 146. 9 158.0 127. 1 137.2 22. 6 22. 9 23.0 24. 6 27.8 31.0 31.9 37.5 42. 1 47.2 52.7 51.5 52.3 52.8 54.4 56.7 58. 6 59.7 Undistributed profits 21. 2 14. 1 21. 3 30. 0 39.3 43. 6 38.7 54.7 62.4 74.3 91.4 90. 5 87.0 95.5 92.5 101. 3 68.5 77.6 Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Inventory valuation adjustment -5. 5 -5. 1 — 5.0 -6.6 -18.6 — 40. 4 -12.4 -14.6 -15.2 -25.2 -41.8 -39.9 -36.6 -44.0 -46.5 -63.2 -27.4 -35.9 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to revised estimates for the third quarter, business fixed investment rose $2.7 billion (annual rate) as nonresidential construction outlays fell $1.7 billion and producers' durable equipment purchases rose $4.4 billion. Residential investment outlays rose $5.3 billion. There was a $16.8 billion reduction of inventories following an $11.4 billion increase in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 450 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 -50 -50 1980 1972 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars ; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nonresidential fixed investment Period 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973.. 1974 1975 1976 1977__. 1978 1979 . 1979: I II. . III___ IV. 1980: I II... . III* Gross private domestic investment 146.2 140.8 160.0 188.3 220.0 214. 6 190.9 243.0 303.3 351.5 387.2 373.8 395. 4 392.3 387.2 387.7 368.5 348.4 Structures Total 98.9 100.5 104. 1 116.8 136. 0 150.6 150.2 164.9 189. 4 221.1 254.9 243.4 249. 1 261.8 265.2 272.6 268.2 270.9 Producers1 durable equipment Total Nonfarm Total Nonfarm 35.7 37.7 39.3 42.5 49.0 54.5 53.8 57.3 62.6 76.5 92.6 849 90.5 95.0 100.2 103.3 103.7 102.0 34.3 36. 1 37.8 41. 1 46.9 51. 8 51.3 54.7 59.8 73.3 88.9 81.2 86.8 91. 4 96.3 99.6 100.0 98.3 63.3 62.8 64 7 743 87.0 96.2 96.4 107.6 126.8 1446 162.2 158.5 158. 6 166.7 165. 1 169.4 164.5 168.9 58.9 58. 1 59.9 69. 1 80. 1 88.2 87.4 97.4 116.3 132.6 147.8 146.1 1445 150.0 150.4 155.9 151.3 155.4 Residential fixed investment Total 37.9 36.6 49.6 62.0 66. 1 55. 1 51.5 68. 1 91.9 108.0 114 1 111.2 112.9 116.0 116.4 110.4 88.9 94.2 Nonfarm structures 36.3 35. 1 47.9 60.3 643 52.7 49.5 65.7 88.8 1044 110.2 107.8 109.1 112.0 112. 1 105.9 85.3 90.8 ProFarm ducers* struc- durable tures equipment 0.7 .6 .7 .7 .6 1.2 .9 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.3 1.8 1. 6 0.9 .9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1. 1 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.9 Change in business inventories Total Nonfarm 9.4 3.8 6.4 9.4 17.9 8.9 m7 10.0 21.9 22.3 18.2 19.1 33.4 145 5.6 47 11.4 -16. 8 9.2 3.7 5.1 8.8 147 10.8 -143 12.1 20.7 21.3 16.5 18.8 32.6 12.6 2.1 4.4 12.3 -10.7 Source: Department of Commerce. Bureau of Economic, Analysis. 9 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Business plans to increase capital spending 8.7 percent in 1980, according to the Commerce Department survey conducted in late July and August. The planned increase in spending is 1.2 percentage points lower than the 9.9 percent reported in June and 2.4 percentage points lower than the 11.1 percent reported in March. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT 60 40 40 30 30 1973 1976 1975 1974 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 J/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Starts of plant and equipment projects * Expenditures for plant and equipment Total * 1972. _ . 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 4 1980 _ ___ 1979: I II.. III— _ IV 1980: I !!___ I I I 44_ _ _ IV Nonmanufaeturing Manufacturing Period 88.44 99.74 112. 40 112. 78 120. 49 135. 80 153. 82 177. 09 192. 51 165. 94 173. 48 179. 33 186. 95 191. 36 193. 89 191. 24 193. 17 Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total 31.35 38.01 46.01 47.95 52.48 60. 16 67.62 78.92 88.19 71.56 76.42 80.22 85. 19 87.32 88.78 87. 25 88. 88 15. 64 19.25 22.62 21.84 23.68 27.77 31.66 38.23 41. 71 34.00 36.86 39.72 41.30 42.30 42.80 40.35 41.55 15. 72 18.76 23.39 26. 11 28.81 32.39 35.96 40. 69 46. 48 37.56 39.56 40.50 43.88 45.01 45. 98 46.90 47.33 57.09 61.73 66.39 64.82 68.01 75.64 86. 19 98. 17 104.31 94.38 97.06 99. 12 101. 76 104. 04 105. 11 103. 99 104.30 i Excludes agricultural business; real estate operators; medical, legal, educational, and cultural service; and nonprofit organizations. These figures do not agree precisely with the nonresidential fixed investment data in gross national product estimates, mainly because those data include investment by farmers, professionals, nonprofit institutions, and real estate firms, and certain outlays charged to current account. 10 Commercial and 2 other Manufacturing 11.89 20.07 12.85 21.40 13.96 22.05 12.74 20.60 IS. 30 20. 99 15.45 22.97 18. 16 25. 71 20. 56 29.35 22. 11 32.26 18.75 27. 73 20.29 28.51 20.41 29. 66 22. 71 30.72 22.48 30.86 22. 65 31.80 54. 87 54. 60 35.21 47.57 52.49 48.24 51. 05 66.73 72.44 87.30 28.60 38. 13 45.74 34.50 29.66 32. 54 34.93 21. 70 21.98 19.56 20.87 24.71 25. 52 23. 21 3.27 5.75 8.00 4. 13 12.20 13.43 Trans- Public ComMining porta- utili- munication tion ties 2.42 2.74 3. 18 3.79 4.00 4.50 4.78 5. 56 6. 43 5.46 5.31 5.42 6.06 6.02 6.56 6. 40 6. 75 5.71 6.03 6.66 7.56 7.44 6.93 8.06 10. 13 10. 74 10.08 9.71 10.29 10.74 10. 32 10.81 10.56 11. 22 17.00 18.71 20.55 20. 14 22.28 25.80 29.48 32.56 32. 77 32.35 33.24 33. 33 31.52 34.35 33.29 32. 16 31. 74 Public utilities * Includes trade, service, construction, finance, and insurance. 1 Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during given period. * Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late July and August 1980. Plans are adjusted when necessary for systematic bias. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE Seasonally adjusted employment fell slightly in October while unemployment rose 178,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 110 MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 110 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 100 10) CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE „.,-"•" 90 90 IX Y EMPLOYMENT 80 10' UNEMPLOYMENT 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 *16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER. SOURCE.- DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Nonincii-Hi Sl/HU- Period 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978* 1979 tional population 150, 827 153,449 156, 048 158, 559 161, 058 163, 620 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted] Unemployment Civilian employment Total labor Nonagricultural 15 Oivilian Unem- force Civilian Part-time Total weeks Agriemploy- ploy- (includ- labor Total ecoand culment ment ing force Total for nomic l over tural Armed reasons Forces) 85, 935 84, 783 87, 485 90, 546 94, 373 96, 945 5, 076 93, 240 91 oil 7, 830 94, 793 92, 613 7, 288 96, 917 94, 773 6, 855 99*, 534 97, 401 6,047 102, 537 100, 420 5, 963 104, 996 102, 908 85. 935 84, 783 87, 485 90, 546 94, 373 96, 945 1979: Oct.. 164, 468 Nov. 164, 682 Dec. 164, 898 98, 158 97, 943 98, 047 5,781 105, 688 103, 595 5,776 105,744 103, 652 5,836 106, 088 103, 999 1980: Jan.. Feb.. Mar.. Apr__ may. June. July. Aug_. Sept.. Oct.. 96, 145 96, 264 96, 546 96, 566 96, 709 97, 776 98, 587 98, 115 97, 256 97, 933 7,043 6,993 6,805 6,846 7,318 8,291 8,410 8,011 7,464 7,482 106, 310 106, 346 106, 184 106, 511 107, 230 106,634 107, 302 107, 139 107, 155 107, 301 97, 474 97, 608 97, 912 104, 229 97, 804 104, 260 97, 953 104, 094 97, 656 104, 419 97, 154 ? 105, 142 96, 988 104, 542 96, 537 105, 203 96, 996 105, 025 97, 006 105, 034 97, 207 105, 180 ^97, 176 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find full-time work, etc. * Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over. •Data beginning 1978 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of 3,492 3,380 3,297 3,244 3,342 3,297 82, 443 81, 403 84, 188 87, 302 91, 031 93, 648 2,709 3,490 3,272 3,297 3,216 3,281 Labor force participation rate fni*!*— Vpei2 f»Ant\ Ucilli/ 5,076 7,830 7,288 6. 855 6,047 5,963 937 2,483 2,339 1,911 1,379 1,202 61. 8 61. 8 62. 1 62.8 63. 7 64. 2 Seasonally adjusted Unadjusted 165, 101 165, 298 165, 506 165, 693 165, 886 166, 105 166, 391 166, 578 166, 789 167, 005 1980 94, 180 94, 223 94, 553 3,315 3,392 3,519 6,121 6,044 6,087 1,195 1,191 1,230 64.3 64.2 64.3 3,270 94, 534 3,326 94, 626 3,358 94, 298 3,242 93, 912 3,379 93, 609 3,191 93, 346 3,257 93, 739 3, 180 93, 826 3,442 93, 765 3,324 *93, 851 3,513 3,406 3,418 3,816 4,349 3,999 4, 113 4,148 4,204 4,261 6,425 6,307 6,438 7,265 8,154 8,006 8, 207 8,019 7,827 8,005 1,334 1,286 1,363 1,629 1,722 1,766 1,915 2,184 2,326 2,318 64.4 64.3 64.2 64.3 64.6 64.2 64.5 64.3 64.2 64.3 3,294 3,385 3,359 revisions in the household survey, which added about 250,000 to labor force and to employment. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In October the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose slightly to 7.6 percent from 7.5 percent in September. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 20 15 TEENAGERS (16-19) 10 10 WOMEN 20 YEARS AND OVER MEN 20 YEARS AND OVER 1980 1976 1977 1978 * UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1980 1979 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Total (all civilian workers) Period Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) By selected groups By sex and age By race Men Women Both 20 20 sexes years years 16-19 and and over over years White ExpeFullBlack rienced time wage Household and and other salary heads workers workers 3.3 5.1 9.9 5.3 8.1 8.2 13.9 5.8 7.3 13. 1 5. 1 7.3 6.5 4.5 13. 1 6.6 5.5 5.6 11.9 3.7 5.3 5.4 3.6 11.3 5.6 8.5 7.7 7.0 6.0 5.8 3.8 6.7 5.9 5.2 4.2 4. 1 5.5 8.0 7.4 7.0 6.0 5.7 16.0 19.9 19.0 17.7 16.3 16. 1 5.0 7.8 7.0 6.2 5.2 5. 1 1979: Oct Nov Dec 5.9 5.8 5.9 4.2 4.3 4.2 5.7 5.6 5.7 16.4 15.9 16.0 5. 1 5.1 5. 1 11.5 10.9 11.3 5.6 5.5 5.5 3.8 3.8 3.7 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug _ _ Sept Oct 6.2 6.0 6.2 7.0 7.8 7.7 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.6 4.7 4.6 4.9 5.9 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.4 5.8 5.7 5.7 6. 3 6.6 6.5 6.7 6.5 6. 1 6.8 16.3 16.5 15.9 16.2 19.2 18.5 19.0 19.1 17.5 18.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 6.2 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.5 6.7 11.8 11.5 11.8 12.6 13.9 13.6 14.2 13.6 14.2 14. 3 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.7 7.6 7.4 7.5 7.4 7.2 7.4 4.2 4.0 4.3 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.2 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 . _ * Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. 12 Labor force time Partlost time (per-l work- cent) ers 8.6 10.3 10. 1 9.8 9.0 8.7 6.1 9. 1 8.3 7.6 6.5 6.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 8.9 8.3 8.5 6.4 6.4 6.4 5.7 5.6 5.8 6.6 7.5 7.4 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.3 8.7 8.9 8.3 8.9 9.3 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.6 9.4 6.7 6.6 6.8 7.5 8.8 8.3 8.5 8.3 8.2 8.4 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In October the percentage of unemployed persons who were job losers fell, while the percentage who were job leavers, reentrants, and new entrants rose. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION * REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT 60 60 JOB LOSERS 40 40 REENTRANTS "V- 20 NEW ENTRANTS 20 - 15-26 WEEKS f*v«n JOB LEAVERS 27 WEEKS AND OVER l Ii 1976 i i Ii 1977 1979 1978 0U 1980 ill 1976 1977 1978 ill 1979 1980 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Percent distribution "of unemployment by reason l Period Unemployment (thousands) ReenJob Job losers leavers trants Percent distribution of unemployment by duration * New Less enthan 5 trants weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks 27 weeks and over State programs Insured unemployment, aU Insured unem- Initial regular proploy- claims frams 2 ment unadjusted) Special unemployment benefits claims (unadjusted) Weekly average, thousands 1975 7,830 1976 7,288 1977 . 6,855 1978 6,047 1979 5,963 1 979: Oct.. . 6,121 Nov.. 6,044 Dec... 6,087 1980: Jan... 6,425 Feb... 6,307 Mar.. 6,438 Apr... 7,265 May.. 8,154 June.. 8,006 July.. 8,207 Aug__ 8,019 Sept.. 7,827 Get— 8,005 55.4 49.8 45.2 41.5 42.8 44.5 45.4 44.3 46.9 45.9 47.3 49.8 52.5 56.3 55.5 54.4 56.0 52.7 10.4 12.2 13.0 14.1 14.3 13.6 141 13.0 12.2 12.8 12.2 12.8 12. 1 10.9 10.4 11.2 10.5 10.8 23.8 26.0 28. 1 30.0 29.5 28.7 28.3 28.8 28.2 28.2 28.0 27. 1 24.6 22.2 22.7 23.6 22.7 25.5 10.4 12. 1 13.7 143 13.4 13.1 12.3 13.9 12.7 13. 1 12.5 10.3 10.8 10.5 11.3 10.8 10.7 11.0 37.0 38.3 41.7 46.2 48.1 48.3 48.8 47.7 49.6 47. 1 45.9 45. 1 46.7 41.6 42. 2 41. 2 37.4 39.8 » Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding. 8 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico), ex-servicemen (tJCX), Federal (TJCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include FSB (Federal supplemental benefits) and SU A (special unemployment assistance). 31.3 29.6 30.5 31.0 31.7 32. 1 31.3 32.2 29.7 32.7 33.2 32.6 32.5 36.4 33.8 31.3 33. 1 31.2 16.5 13.8 13. 1 12.3 11.5 11. 1 11.0 11.6 12.4 12.4 11.9 13.0 12. 2 12.8 13.2 15.9 17.7 15.8 15.2 18.3 148 10.5 8.7 8.5 8.9 8.5 8.4 7.8 9.0 9.2 8.5 9.2 10.8 11. 6 11.8 13.2 3,986 2,991 2,655 2,359 2,434 2,540 2,643 2,631 2,729 2,685 2,857 3,204 3,717 4,009 3,880 3,778 3,802 3,589 478 386 375 346 388 402 405 416 414 389 455 574 642 617 530 506 494 446 4,937 3,846 3,308 2,645 2,592 2,236 2,559 3,047 3,740 3,730 3,652 3,629 3,680 3,790 4,140 3,908 3,961 3,662 1,173 1,152 572 s FSB and SUA. These programs started January 1975 and regular reporting began March 1975. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 257,000 in October. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 22 90 WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 80 70 SERVICE-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 60 MANUFACTURING 50 40 GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 30 .,....«•«««'"""" i IIIIIi i II I 20 1976 _ 2 Ml M I I I I I I I I 1977 1979 1978 I I I I I I I I I II I II I I | I I III I II I I I I 1 I I I 1978 1979 1976 1980 MM I I I II 1980 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of wage and salary workers;1 seasonally adjusted] Service-producing industries Goods-producing industries Period 1974 1975 19761977 ... 1978_ _ 1979- _ _ Total nonagricultural employ- Total 2 ment 78, 76, 79, 82, 86, 89, 265 945 382 471 697 886 24, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 794 600 352 346 585 504 C*f*in Uonstruction 4, 3, 3^ 3, 4, 4, 020 525 576 851 229 483 Trans- Whole- Finance, Government Manufacturing insurporta__|_ sale ance, tion and State Non- Total and Services and retail Federal and durable Total Durable real public goods goods trade local estate utilities 20, 077 18, 323 18, 997 19, 682 20, 505 21, 062 11, 925 10 688 11* 077 11, 597 12, 274 12, 772 1979: Oct___ 90, 441 Nov__ 90, 552 Dec___ 90, 678 26, 554 26, 504 26, 590 4,529 21, 043 12, 764 4,553 20, 966 12, 693 4,615 20,983 12, 706 1980: Jan___ Feb___ Mar__ Apr___ May__ June__ July__ Aug__ Sept p. Oct *>._ 26, 26, 26, 26, 25, 25, 25, 25, 25, 25, 4,745 4,659 4, 529 4,467 4,436 4,379 4, 322 4, 359 4, 397 4,437 91, 91, 91, 90, 90, 90, 89, 90, 90, 90, 031 186 144 951 468 047 867 142 365 622 715 623 476 121 745 422 163 312 470 611 20, 971 20, 957 20, 938 20, 642 20, 286 20, 014 19, 828 19, 940 20, 046 20, 139 12, 681 12, 715 12, 707 12, 442 12, 140 11,947 11, 819 11,860 11, 955 12, 038 8, 152 7 635 7' 920 8, 086 8, 231 8, 290 471 345 030 125 113 382 8, 279 63, 887 8, 273 64, 048 8,277 64, 088 8,290 8,242 8,231 8,200 8, 146 8,067 8,009 8,080 8,091 8, 101 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they 14 53, 54, 56', 58^ 61, 63^ 64, 316 64, 563 64, 668 64, 830 64, 723 64, 625 64, 704 64, 830 64, 895 65, Oil 13,441 13, 892 14, 551 15, 303 16, 252 17, 078 2,724 2, 748 2, 733 2, 727 2, 753 2, 773 11,446 11,937 12, 138 12, 399 12, 919 13, 147 5,203 20, 414 5,216 20, 479 5,212 20, 448 5,033 17, 264 5,049 17, 308 5,064 17, 362 2,769 2,773 2,773 13,204 13, 223 13, 229 5,202 5, 198 5, 202 5, 178 5, 167 5, 134 5, 114 5, 129 5, 122 5, 136 5,091 5,101 5, 115 5, 119 5, 137 5, 150 5, 167 5, 180 5, 188 5,200 17, 462 17, 540 17, 580 17, 618 17, 659 17, 652 17, 760 17, 788 17, 851 17, 908 2,791 2,826 2,886 3, 115 2,960 2,951 2,893 2,828 2,765 2,754 13, 241 13, 261 13, 275 13, 269 13, 313 13, 279 13, 264 13, 316 13, 354 13, 374 4, 725 4, 542 4 582 4, 713 4, 923 5^ 141 16, 987 17 060 17' 755 18, 516 19, 542 20, 269 20, 20, 20, 20, 20, 20, 20, 20, 20, 20, 529 637 610 531 487 459 506 589 615 639 4, 148 4 165 4' 271 4,467 4, 724 4, 974 are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments, a Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Average gross hourly earnings Average weekly hours Total private nonagricultural l Period Overtime Total private nonagricultural 1 Manufacturing Manufacturing Total Adjusted hourly earnings index2 —total private nonagricultural Percent change from a year earlier 4 Index, 1967=100 Current dollars 1967 dollars 8 Current dollars 1967 dollars 36.9 37.0 36.9 36.5 36. 1 36. 1 36.0 35.8 35.6 39.9 40.5 40.7 40.0 39.5 40. 1 40.3 40.4 40.2 2.9 3.5 3.8 3.3 2.6 3. 1 3.5 3.6 3.3 $3. 45 3.70 3.94 4.24 4.53 4.86 5.25 5.69 6.16 $3.57 3.82 4.09 4.42 4.83 5.22 5.68 6. 17 6.69 129.2 137.5 146.0 157. 5 170.6 183.0 196.8 212.9 229.8 106. 5 109.7 109.7 106.7 105.9 107.3 108.4 109.0 105.6 7.0 6.4 6.2 7.9 8.3 7.3 7.5 8.2 7.9 2.6 3.0 0 -2.7 -.7 1.3 1.0 .6 -3.1 _ _ 35.6 35.6 35.7 40.1 40. 1 40.2 3.2 3.3 3.2 6.28 6.34 6.39 6.82 6.87 6.91 235.0 237.3 239.4 104.2 104.1 103.8 7.7 8.2 8.3 -4.2 -4.1 -4.5 1980: Jan. Feb Mar Apr May June.. July Aug Sept v _ _ Oct* __ 35.6 35.5 35.4 35.3 35. 1 35.0 34. 9 35. 1 35.2 35. 1 40.3 40. 1 39.8 39.8 39.3 39.1 39.0 39. 4 39.5 39.6 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 6.41 6.45 6.51 6.54 6.57 6.62 6.67 6.71 6.76 6.81 6.93 6.99 7.06 7.11 7. 15 7.22 7.30 7.36 7.41 7.48 240.3 242.4 245.2 246.2 248.3 250.9 252. 1 2540 255. 1 257.2 102.7 102.2 102.0 101.4 101.4 101.5 102. 0 102.0 101.4 101.3 7.9 8. 2 8.9 8.6 9. 1 9.4 9.2 9.3 8.9 9.4 -5.3 -5.2 -5.0 -5.2 -4.6 -4.2 -3.4 -3.0 -3.3 -2.8 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 __. _ _ - 1979: Oct Nov Dec AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS—PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average gross weekly earnings Total private nonagricultural l Period Current dollars 1971 1972 1973. 1974 _ 1975 1976 1977-. 197819791979: OctNov Dec___ __ 1980: Jan Feb_> * Mar Apr__ •May.. *t. J — ~~ June July j Aug Sept ^ Oet»__ 1 2 ._ $127. 31 136. 90 145. 39 154.76 163. 53 175. 45 189. 00 203. 70 219. 30 223. 57 225. 70 228. 12 228. 20 228.98 230. 45 230. 86 230. 61 231. 70 232. 78 235. 52 237. 95 239. 03 Manufacturing 1967 dollars 3 $104. 95 109. 26 109. 23 104. 78 101. 45 102. 90 104. 13 10430 100.73 99. 10 99.03 98.88 97.52 96.53 95.82 95.08 94.16 93. 77 94. 17 9462 9461 94. 11 $142. 44 154. 71 166. 46 176. 80 190. 79 209. 32 228. 90 249. 27 268. 94 273. 48 275. 49 277. 78 279. 28 280. 30 280. 99 282. 98 281. 00 282. 30 284 70 289. 98 292. 70 296. 21 $211. 67 221. 19 235. 89 249. 25 266. 08 283. 73 295. 65 318. 69 342. 99 345. 92 350. 76 355. 26 352. 86 357.64 356. 85 359. 29 361. 74 366. 92 365. 79 366. 46 376. 50 373. 06 Percent change from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural 5 Current dollars Current dollars Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Adjusted for interindustry employment "shifts and for overtime in manufacturing. ' Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index. Revised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978. Construction Wholesale and retail trade $101. 09 106. 45 111. 76 119.02 126. 45 133. 79 142. 52 153. 64 164 96 167. 89 169. 52 170. 50 172. 13 172. 04 173. 45 172. 16 173. 98 173. 86 174 90 176. 96 178. 16 178. 24 6.2 7.5 6.2 6.4 5.7 7.3 7.7 7.8 7.7 6.9 7.2 7.4 6.9 6.8 6'6 8.2 6.5 6.4 5.7 6.6 6.3 6.9 1967 dollars 1.9 4.1 -. 0 -41 -3.2 1.4 1.2 .2 -3.4 -4.9 -4.9 -5.3 -6.2 -6.5 -7.0 -5.6 -6.9 -6.9 -6. 5 -5.4 -5.6 -5. 1 4 Monthly 5 changes based on indexes to two decimal places. Based on unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, PRIVATE BUSINESS SECTOR Hours of 2all persons Output i Period Output per hour of all persons Compensation per hour 3 Unit labor costs Implicit price deflator 4 PriPriNonNonPriNonNonPrivate NonPrivate Private vate farm farm vate farm farm farm vate business business business business business business business business business sector business sector business sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector Nonfarm business sector 1967=100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 1967 1968 1969 100. 0 105. 1 108.3 100. 0 105.3 108.5 100.0 101.7 104.5 100.0 102.0 105.4 100. 0 103. 3 103.6 100.0 103.2 103.0 100.0 107.6 115.0 100.0 107.4 114.2 100. 0 104. 1 111.0 100.0 104.0 110. 9 100.0 103.9 108.8 100.0 104.0 108.7 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 107.3 110.3 117.5 124.4 121.4 107.4 110.2 117.8 124.9 121.8 102.8 102. 3 105.4 109.5 110.2 104.0 103. 6 107.0 111.5 112.2 104.4 107.8 111.5 113.6 110.2 103.2 106.4 110. 1 112.0 108.6 123.3 131.6 139.8 151.3 165.2 121.9 130. 1 138.4 149.2 163.0 118. 2 122.0 125.4 133. 2 149.8 118. 1 122.3 125.7 133.2 150. 1 113.9 118.9 123.2 130.3 143. 1 114.0 119.2 122.9 127.9 141.4 1975 1976 1977 1978 _ 1979 118.7 126.4 133.8 140.7 144. 1 118.8 126.9 134.3 141.5 144.9 105.4 108.4 112.7 118.0 121.8 107.2 110.8 115.4 121. 0 125.3 112.6 116.6 118.7 119.3 118.3 110.7 114.6 116.4 116.9 115.7 181.7 197.6 213. 3 231.4 253. 1 179.3 194. 2 209.6 227.5 247. 9 161.3 169.5 179.7 194.0 214.0 161. 9 169.5 180. 1 194.6 214.4 157.5 165.5 174.8 187.2 203.8 156.4 164.8 174.5 186. 1 202.1 1979: I_ - _ _ II III IV 144.4 143.4 143.8 144.8 145.5 144.2 144.6 145.5 121. 5 121. 3 122.0 123.0 124.8 124.9 125.7 126.2 118. 9 118.3 117.8 117.7 116.6 115.4 115.0 115.2 244.8 250. 4 255.7 260.3 240. 2 244.9 249.9 255.6 205.9 211.7 217.0 221. 1 206.0 212. 1 217.3 221.8 197.2 202. 0 206. 1 209.7 195. 1 200.3 204.7 208.4 1980- I IIIII ».— 144. 8 140.3 140.0 145.6 140.9 140.9 123. 1 120. 0 119.7 126.7 123.8 123.3 117.7 116.8 116.9 114.9 113.8 114.3 267.6 275.3 281. 1 262.2 269.0 274.7 227.5 235.6 240.4 228.2 236. 3 240.5 214.5 220. 6 226.4 213.7 220.4 225. 8 Percent change ; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 1967— 1968 1969 2.0 5. 1 3.0 1.9 5.3 3.0 -0.0 1.7 2.7 0.3 2.0 3.3 2.0 3.3 .2 1.6 3.2 -.2 5.3 7.6 6.9 5.4 7.4 6.4 3.3 4. 1 6.6 3.8 4.0 6.7 2.9 3.9 4.7 3.3 4.0 4.5 1970 1971 — 1972 1973 1974 -.9 2.8 6.6 5. 9 -2.4 -1. 1 2.6 6.9 6.0 -2.5 -1.6 -.5 3. 1 3.9 .6 -1.3 3.2 4.2 .6 .7 3.3 3.4 1.9 -3.0 .2 3.0 3.6 1.7 -3.1 7.2 6.7 6.2 8.2 9.2 6.8 6.7 6.4 7.8 9.2 6.4 3.3 2.8 6.2 12.5 6.5 3.5 2.7 6.0 12.7 4.7 4.4 3.6 5.8 9.8 4.9 4.5 3. 1 4. 1 10.5 1975 1976 1977__ 1978 1979 _ -2.3 6.5 5.8 5.2 2. 4 -2.5 6.9 5.8 5.4 2.4 -4.3 2.9 3.9 4.7 3.3 -4.4 3.3 4.2 4.9 3.5 2.1 3.5 1.8 .5 -.8 2.0 3.5 1.5 .5 -1.1 10.0 8.8 8.0 8.5 9.4 10.0 8.3 7.9 8.6 9.0 7.7 5.0 6.0 8.0 10.3 7.9 4.7 6.3 8.0 10.2 10. 1 5.0 5.6 7. 1 8.9 10.6 5.4 5.9 6.6 8.6 1979: I II III IV 1.2 -2.9 1. 1 2.8 1.2 -3.6 1.2 2.5 4.5 -.9 2.5 3. 1 4.7 .4 2.7 1.7 -3.3 -3.9 -1.5 .8 11.0 9.5 8.7 7.5 10.2 8. 1 8. 5 9.5 14.6 11.8 10.3 7.8 14.0 12.5 10.1 8.6 9.3 10. 1 8.3 7.2 8. 1 11.0 9.0 7.4 .2 1980: I II — 12. 0 -.8 III *__. .2 — 12.3 .1 .5 -9.6 -1.0 1.3 -8.9 -1.4 -3. 1 -2.0 -1.4 -.3 g -2.7 .3 -1. 1 -3.7 1.5 11.7 12. 0 8.7 10.7 10.8 8.8 12. 1 15. 1 8.4 12.0 15.0 7.2 9.4 11.9 11.0 10.6 13.2 10.0 "— . 4 1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars. 2 Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed. * Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. 16 NOTE.—Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose 1.6 percent in October, following revised increases of 1.3 percent in September and 1.0 percent in August. INDEX, 1967=10)* 160 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967 = 100 * -TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION- (RATIO SCALE) -UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION - 160 140 ILITIE: UTILITIES 140 120 120 II I I I I t i l l 1976 100 180 1977 1979 1978 «.J\ MINI!ING 1980 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION 100 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 >% NONDURABLE 160 v / I IIIIIM II I ,»«.«»%* *^*'"1 \k PERCENT* (RATIO SCALE) 100 140 MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE 90 80 120 70 1QQI..i.il 1976 1980 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period 1967 VTO'DOTtiOH 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977_ 1978 _ _ 1979 1979- Oct Nov Dec 1980* Jan Feb Mar Arjr IVTflv June July Ancr Septp Get* Total industrial production Percent Index, 1967= change from 100 year earlier 100 00 8.4 129.8 129.3 ^ 117.8 -8.9 130.5 10.8 138.2 5.9 146. 1 5.7 44 152. 5 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Seasonally adjusted] Industry production indexes, 1967=100 Manufacturing Total Durable Nondurable 87. 95 129. 8 129.4 116.3 130.3 138.4 146.8 153. 6 51.98 127. 1 125.7 109.3 122. 3 130.0 139.7 146.4 85.97 133.8 134.6 126.4 141.8 150.5 156.9 1640 6.S6 1147 115.3 112.8 114 2 118.2 1240 125.5 5. 69 145.4 143.7 146.0 151.7 156. 5 161.4 166.0 91.8 87. 1 73.4 81. 1 82. 7 85.6 87.4 87.6 83.8 72.9 79.5 81.9 84.4 85.7 86 83 77 81 83 84 83 92.9 90.2 79.4 85.5 88. 1 90.9 92. 7 81 91. 8 80 91.3 76 85. 7 Mining 152. 7 152.3 152.5 2.0 1. 1 .5 153.7 153.3 153.2 146.0 145.2 144 8 1648 165. 0 165.3 127.8 129.9 131.4 165.7 167.2 166.9 86.6 86.2 86. 1 848 84 4 84 1 152. 7 152. 6 152. 1 148. 3 144 0 141.5 140.4 141.8 143.7 146. 0 .5 .1 -.9 -1.9 -5.7 -7.5 -8.2 6 8 -5^9 -4.4 153.4 153.0 152. 1 147.9 143. 4 140.3 139. 1 140.4 142.8 145.3 144.7 144 1 143.4 138.4 133. 3 129.9 128.3 129.3 131. 5 134. 6 166.0 165.9 1647 161. 6 158.0 155. 3 154.7 156.4 159. 3 160. 9 133.5 132.9 133. 0 133. 1 133.4 132. 9 130. 6 130.5 130.9 132.0 1648 167. 1 172.0 169. 1 167. 7 169.3 171.8 174.0 171.9 172.0 86. 1 85.6 847 82. 1 78.3 75. 7 73.7 74.6 76. 1 77.9 83.9 83.5 82.8 80.3 77.6 75.7 749 75.4 76.5 77.6 > Output as percent of capacity. Annual data are averages of four monthly indexes. «Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Annual data are averages of quarterly data. 1 Utilities Capacity utilization rate, percent * Manufacturing Materials (Federal WharComReserve Federal ton series) Reserve merce2 series series series 3 83.5 Sources- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), and Wharton School of Finance. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1967=100, seasonally adjusted] Products Final Products Total NonDurable durable goods goods Total 1967 proportion 1970 1971 -_.. 1972 1973 1974 1975 . 1976 1977 1978_ _. 1979 1979: Oct Nov Dec 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July . J __ Aug Sept v Oet» Equipment Consumer goods Period 47.82 _ _ - _— - _- _ - 105.3 106.3 115. 7 124.4 125. 1 118.2 127.6 135.9 142.2 147.2 147.3 147. 1 147.2 147.0 147.7 147.7 145.4 143. 1 142.3 142.4 142.9 143.7 145. 1 27. 68 109.0 114.7 124.4 131.5 128.9 124.0 137.1 145.3 149. 1 150.8 150.0 149. 1 148.6 147.9 148.4 148.6 145. 3 142.4 142. 1 142.0 142. 8 143.8 145.5 7.89 19.79 106. 1 118.8 133.8 146.2 135.3 121.4 141.9 154.0 159.2 155.8 153. 1 149.6 146.7 142.3 144.5 144. 1 136.3 128.8 128.2 128.3 128.7 133.0 138.6 110. 1 113. 1 120.6 125. 6 126.3 125. 1 135.2 141.9 145.1 148.8 148.8 149.0 149. 3 150. 1 150.0 150. 3 148.8 147.7 147.6 147.4 148.4 148. 1 148.3 Intermediate products Materials Construction supplies Total Business Total 20.14 100. 1 94.7 103.8 114.5 120.0 110.2 114.6 123.0 132.8 142. 2 143.6 144. 2 145.2 145.8 146.6 146.6 145.6 144. 0 142. 6 142.9 143. 1 143.4 144. 6 12.63 12.89 6.42 107.0 104. 1 118. 0 134.2 142.4 128. 2 135.4 147.8 160.3 171.3 172.3 172. 6 174. 1 174.9 176.0 176. 1 174.2 171.9 169.8 170. 1 170.5 170.5 171.7 112.9 116.7 126.5 137.2 135.3 123. 1 137.2 145. 1 154. 1 160.5 160.6 160.2 159.6 160.8 159.2 158.3 150.8 146.2 143.5 144. 5 147. 4 149. 8 150.9 111. 0 116.8 128.4 139.8 134.5 116.3 132.6 140.6 151.7 158.0 157.9 157.4 155. 7 156.4 153.8 152.3 139.4 133.0 128.5 128.6 132.7 136.9 139.2 89. 29 109.2 111.3 122.3 133.9 132. 4 115.5 131. 7 138.6 148.3 156. 4 156.6 156.2 156.6 157.0 156.5 155. 3 151.0 144.3 140.0 136. 5 138.7 141. 8 145.5 Supplementary group: Energy total 12. 2S 117.0 119.5 125.2 128.3 125.5 125.5 129. 1 132. 9 135. 4 137.9 136.9 138.3 138.4 138.6 139. 4 139.6 139. 1 137.9 138.4 139.2 139.6 138.4 138. 3 [1967=100, seasonally adjusted] Durable manufactures Primary metals Period Total 1967 proportion 1970 1971 1972_ _ 1973 1974 „ 1975___ 1976___ 1977 1978 1979___ 1979: Oct Nov_ Dec 1980: Jan__ Feb Mar Apr May_ June _ July A J Aug._ Sept f Oct" Iron and steel Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery 9. 15 104.4 100.2 116. 0 133.7 140. 1 125. 1 134.5 143.6 153. 6 163.7 162.9 162. 9 163. 0 167. 1 167.0 166. 5 163. 2 162. 1 158.3 158.5 158.8 159. 0 160. 1 6.57 4.21 5.93 106. 6 100.2 112. 1 126.7 123. 1 96.4 109.7 111. 1 119.9 121.3 118. 4 117. 1 115.3 116.4 111.9 113. 7 106. 4 96. 1 90.4 81. 7 86.2 90.3 98. 5 104.7 96. 1 107. 1 122.3 119.8 95.8 104.8 103. 8 113.2 113.2 108. 8 108. 1 106.6 107.2 103.4 105.9 97.4 84.4 75.4 68. 1 75.3 80.0 102.4 103.5 112. 1 124.7 124. 2 109.9 123.9 131.0 141. 6 148. 5 147.5 146. 9 146.2 145.0 145.7 145.5 141. 4 133.2 126. 1 123. 8 125.3 127.0 128.3 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 Nondurable manufactures Transportation equipment Total Motor vehicles and parts 8.05 9. 27 4.50 108. 1 107.7 122. 2 143. 1 143.8 116.5 134.8 145.4 159.4 175.0 177.3 179.5 181.6 181.7 179.2 179.2 177. 0 171.4 166.6 165.0 166.7 167. 1 169.7 89.5 97.9 108.2 118.3 108.7 97.4 111. 1 122.2 132.5 135.4 133.3 128.3 127.3 122. 1 125.7 123. 8 115. 1 109.8 110.0 110.7 108. 3 113. 1 118. 9 92.3 118.6 135.8 148.8 128.2 111. 1 142.0 161. 1 169. 9 159.9 150. 1 139.3 137. 1 126.2 133.9 130. 1 114. 7 105. 9 106.7 107.9 104.4 113.6 124.5 Lumber and products Apparel products 1.64 105.6 113. 8 120.8 126. 0 116.2 107.6 123. 2 131. 2 136.3 136.9 138.7 135.9 132.4 131.6 130.2 125. 3 105. 2 104.5 109.7 112.8 120.5 124.0 3. SI 101.4 104.7 109.4 117.3 114. 3 107.6 125.7 134. 2 134.2 134.4 131.5 133.5 131. 1 131.5 133.8 136. 1 131.3 128.6 127.2 121. 5 123.8 Print- Cheming icals and and pubprodlishing ucts 4.72 107.0 107. 1 112.7 118.2 118. 2 113.3 122.5 127. 6 131.5 136.9 137.2 136.2 137.8 138.9 139.9 139.2 136. 5 135.5 135.4 138.6 139.8 141. 1 140. 9 7.74 120.4 125. 9 143.6 154. 5 159. 4 147.2 170. 9 185.7 197.4 211. 8 212. 9 215. 3 216.8 218. 0 217.4 213.6 209. 1 199.2 191.. 1 190.3 196.3 205. 1 Foods 8. 75 108.9 112.8 116.8 120. 9 124.0 123.4 133.0 138.8 142.7 147.5 147.7 147.9 148.4 148.5 149.0 149.3 147.8 149.5 149. 0 148.9 148. 2 148. 7 NEW CONSTRUCTION Construction contracts1 Private Period Total new construction expenditures Residential Total Total 1 Commercial and industrial New housing units Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1972= 100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) Billions of dollars 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979. — — 137. 9 138.5 134.5 151. 1 174.0 205.5 229.0 105.4 100.2 93.7 111.9 135.8 159.6 179.9 59.7 50.4 46.5 60.5 81.0 93.4 99.0 50.1 40.6 34.4 47.3 65.7 75.8 78.6 21. 7 23.8 20.8 19.9 22.5 29.6 39.9 24.0 25.9 26.4 31.5 32.4 36.6 41.0 32.5 38.3 40.9 39. 1 38.2 45.9 49.0 Seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1979: Sept Oct Nov Dec 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr May . June July Aug 9 Sept 9 235.3 239.9 239.4 244. 0 259. 6 248.8 237.1 225.8 218.9 215.0 214.2 215. 1 222. 0 184.3 187.3 187.4 191.2 198. 1 191.7 180.6 171.5 164.8 161.3 158.9 162. 5 167.7 80.4 79.9 79.0 78.5 80.7 75. 1 68.4 60.7 55.2 51.9 52. 2 56. 0 60.4 100.4 101.5 101.8 102. 1 105.8 101.5 94.0 83.5 77.0 73.4 75.0 79.8 85.5 * Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. * F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971 for floor space. 41. 1 42. 9 43.5 45.3 47.4 46.4 43.8 44.5 44.3 44.6 41.3 41.0 40.2 109.2 103.0 101.9 121.0 153.6 1741 185.6 42.9 42. 9 42.0 43.8 44.9 43.8 42.8 43.5 43.5 43.4 42. 6 41.8 42.0 50.9 52.6 52.0 52.9 61.5 57.0 56.5 54.3 54.1 53.7 55.3 52.5 54.2 185 171 172 183 190 171 155 130 125 145 148 192 163 1,010 840 555 592 739 977 1,050 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1, 106 1,118 1,010 969 1,253 1,026 994 875 753 854 867 792 797 NOTE.—New construction expenditures data prior to 1973 not comparable with later data. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New private housing units Period 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 Units started, by type of structure Total 1 unit 2, 356. 6 2, 045. 3 1, 337. 7 1, 160. 4 1, 537. 5 1, 987. 1 2, 020. 3 1, 745. 1 1, 309. 2 1, 132. 0 888. 1 892.2 1, 162. 4 1, 450. 9 1, 433. 3 1, 194. 1 2-4 units 141.3 118.3 68.1 640 85.9 121.7 125.0 122. 0 5 or more units 906.2 795.0 381.6 2043 289.2 414.4 462.0 429.0 New private homes Homes for sale at end of period * Units authorized Units completed 2, 218. 9 1, 819. 5 1, 074 4 939.2 1, 296. 2 1, 690. 0 1, 800. 5 1, 551. 8 2, 003. 9 2, 100. 5 1, 728. 5 1, 317. 2 1, 377. 2 1, 657. 1 1, 867. 5 1, 870. 8 718 634 519 549 646 819 817 709 409 418 346 313 353 402 414 8 398 1,819 1,831 1,880 1,787 1,832 1,669 1,897 1,536 1,469 1,502 1,402 1,215 674 617 571 584 548 458 345 458 544 650 643 554 407 399 398 396 384 377 364 351 340 333 329 335 Homes sold Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent)2 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.0 5.6 5.2 5.0 5.3 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1979: Oct __ Nov ....... Dec 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr May__ June July. Aug 9 Sept 9 Oct '9 1 Seasonally adjusted. 1 8 Quarterly data entered 1,710 1, 522 1,548 1,419 1, 330 1, 041 1,030 906 1,223 1,265 1,429 1,545 1,569 1, 139 980 1,055 1,002 786 617 628 628 757 869 1,003 1,058 1,011 in last month of quarter. New series beginning March 1979. 129 114 110 127 101 91 100 80 75 80 136 131 129 442 428 383 290 443 333 302 198 391 316 290 356 429 1,478 1,287 1,247 1,271 1, 168 968 789 825 1,078 1,236 1,361 1, 564 1,333 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.5 NOTE.—Units authorized beginning 1978 relate to 16,000 permit-issuing places; data for 1972-77 are for 14,000 places and for 1971, for 13,000 places. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—TOTAL AND TRADE Business sales rose 3% percent in September while inventories rose $1% billion. According to the advance survey, retail sales fell slightly in October following increases of 11/2 percent in September and % percent in August. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* WyJONS_OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 600 (RATIO SCALE) 550 50) TOTAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES 450 400 350 300 250 200 INVENTORY-SALES RATIO 150 100 1976 1977 1978 1980 1980 1979 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCltxOF ECONOMIC ADVISERS, Total business 1 Wholesale Retail Sales Period Sales 2 Inventories 3 Inven-3 Sales 2 tories 2 Inventories DurNonable durable Total goods goods stores stores Total 3 Inventory-4sales ratio Non- Total Durable durable busigoods goods ness 1 stores stores Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1972130, 049 1973 152, 237 1974 175, 741 1975 180, 263 1976. _ 202, 001 1977 224, 786 1978254, 297 1979 _ 288, 388 1979: Sept 296, 760 Get 298, 45^ Nov 298, 949 Dec. 302 117 1980: Jan 312, 458 Feb 310 181 Mar 305, 165 Apr 294, 998 May 292, 478 June 294, 203 July. _. _ „ 304, 154 Aug_ 308, 019 Sept v 318 685 Oct *_ _ _ 203, 161 234, 162 285, 518 285, 035 310,736 337, 432 380, 643 426, 796 418, 461 422, 710 425, 952 426, 796 431, 420 435, 155 439, 114 445, 170 445, 801 447, 031 449, 510 451, 951 453, 673 29, 584 36, 822 45, 836 44, 633 48, 408 53, 509 62, 842 73, 551 76, 480 77, 322 78, 203 78, 678 80, 906 79, 299 78, 550 76, 391 76, 376 76, 629 80, 189 82, 606 85, 939 39, 786 46, 254 56, 537 55, 113 61, 307 67, 998 80, 771 89, 676 8"8, 372 88, 819 89, 086 89, 676 90, 690 91, 342 91, 497 92, 378 92, 562 93, 633 94, 619 97, 111 97, 186 37, 422 42, 461 45, 083 49, 013 54, 784 60, 435 66, 741 73, 837 76, 666 75, 583 76, 421 77, 150 79, 464 77, 993 76, 534 75, Oil 74, 587 76, 001 78, 287 78, 770 79, 987 79, 868 »The term "business" also includes manufacturing (see page 21). J3 Monthly average for year and total for month. Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. « For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month. 20 12, 369 14. 409 14, 118 15, 247 18, 150 20, 724 23, 458 25, 680 27, 048 25, 656 25, 679 25, 943 27, 268 26, 369 24, 296 22, 821 22, 537 23, 212 25, 076 24, 821 25, 795 25, 519 25, 054 28, 052 30, 965 33, 766 36, 633 39, 711 43, 283 48, 158 49, 618 49, 927 50, 742 51, 207 52, 196 51, 624 52, 238 52, 190 52, 050 52, 789 53, 211 53, 949 54, 192 54, 349 55, 079 24, 238 63, 237 28, 418 71, 067 32, 861 71, 744 33, 356 79, 273 37, 841 89, 210 42, 970 101, 538 50, 100 108, 862 53, 087 108,748 54, 068 110,415 54,523 110,383 54, 415 108,862 53, 087 108, 436 52, 130 108, 717 52, 232 109, 095 52, 276 110, 252 52, 490 109, 837 51, 792 109, 768 51, 645 110, 786 51, 531 111, 323 52, 383 112,872 52, 287 30, 841 34, 819 38, 206 38, 388 41, 432 46, 240 51, 438 55, 775 54,680 55,892 55,968 55,775 56, 306 56, 485 56, 819 57, 762 58, 045 58, 123 59, 255 58, 940 60, 585 1. 50 1.43 1.47 1.58 1.48 1.44 1. 41 1.41 1.41 1.42 1.43 1.41 1.38 1.40 1. 44 1.51 1. 52 1. 52 1.48 1.47 1.43 1. 40 1.40 1.48 1. 44 1.38 1.39 1.43 1.45 1.42 1. 46 1.44 1.41 1.36 1.39 1.43 1.47 1.47 1. 44 1.42 1.41 1. 41 Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS Manufacturers* orders, shipments, and inventories rose in September. According to advance data, durable goods new orders and shipments rose further in October. BILLIONS OF DOLLAR^* (RATIO SCALE) 180 160 =-SHIPME NTS IN 5 ' TOTAL 140 , r^\^^ —s V "" 3-^1 120 M^ - 100 - " " _ - ~~1 - DURABLE GO DDS 80 -'V— ;;>*V— «* ..xv—' \" 60 ,** ff i* £T-— —"•*""**** ^ " - NONDURA JLE GOODS 40 i t i i i 1 i i i ii (I 1 1 1 1 I I 1 \ \ 1 1 11 11 11 1 11 i ii1 111 1 1 11 1 1111i 11111 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 280 240 - INVENTORIES TOTAL ^^~^~ ^ 200 _1—--—'—""" — _—-]! 160 ..-120 \ 100 DURABLE GC ODS 80 _. ••**' * --' _.*..»-*—""'""" 60 \ NONDUR/ ^BLE GOODS - - - 40 I«U 160 ~ NFW ORDFR^ TOTAL ^j^^^^ —-1^^ " ^ \—^^ - 140 120 ^xi 100 80' _^- - DURABLE C OODS \ " v-- *-,-/"-•''' ,-X~ ^•v" ^—^ * ^ - 60' ^ /* - *\S - -"" \~ 1 -/•—•"* "^l-" ^ - " NONDURABL E GOODS JA— • 40: i i i i i 1 i i i ii i i i i 1977 1976 RATI0* 2.2 i i iii Iiii ii i iiii tiiii 1 1111111111 1980 1978 I 1979 INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO 2.0 1.8 r\ 1.6 1.4 ,, , , , 1 1976 | I, , , , , 1977 1 1978 I 1979 I 1.2 1976 1980 1977. .1978 ^SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Total Manufacturers' new orders1 NonDurable durable goods goods Durable goods ManufacCapital NonNonturers1 goods Durable Total Total indus- durable unfilled goods durable Total goods goods orders3 tries, nondefense Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 72, 954 84, 821 86, 617 98, 810 110,842 124, 714 141, 000 39, 703 44, 253 43, 678 50, 697 58, 010 66, 505 73, 981 33, 251 40, 568 42, 939 48, 113 52, 832 58, 210 67, 019 124, 672 157, 915 158, 178 170, 156 180, 224 198, 334 228, 258 81, 426 101, 866 101, 766 109, 095 115, 751 129, 456 151, 689 43, 245 76, 183 42, 853 56, 048 87, 157 46, 740 56, 412 85, 082 41, 957 61, 061 99, 184 51, 047 64, 472 112, 451 59, 562 68, 878 128, 488 70, 145 76, 569 144, 335 77, 215 1979: Sept.- 143,614 Oct___ 145, 547 Nov., 144, 326 Dee___ 146, 289 74, 201 75, 544 73, 751 74, 191 69, 414 70, 003 70, 574 72, 098 221, 223, 226, 228, 341 476 483 258 146, 148, 150, 151, 048 136 476 689 75, 293 75, 340 76, 007 76, 569 147, 146, 146, 149, 378 610 996 232 77, 647 76, 521 75, 903 77, 199 152, 088 152, 889 150, 081 143, 596 141, 515 41, 573 145, 678 146, 643 152, 759 77, 948 79, 159 75, 925 72, 207 69, 443 69, 056 72, 544 72, 057 76, 566 79, 166 74, 140 73, 730 74, 156 71, 389 72, 072 72, 517 73, 134 74, 586 76, 193 232, 235, 238, 242, 243, 243, 244, 243, 243, 294 096 522 540 402 630 105 517 615 154, 155, 157, 159, 160, 160, 160, 161, 160, 043 78, 251 314 79, 782 127 81, 395 877 82, 663 607 82, 795 404 83, 226 875 83, 230 081 82, 436 691 82, 924 155, 154, 152, 143, 138, 138, 147, 147, 155, 588 603 065 313 920 582 104 180 675 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980: Jan___ Feb___ Mar__ Apr___ May__ June__ July__ Aug_._ Sept*_ Oct"__ i Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales. value, end of period. End of period. • For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly 1 Book 1 1980 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturers' shipments l Manufacturers' inventories2 Period 1979 Manufacinventory — shipments ratio4 11, 089 12, 737 10, 772 12, 501 15, 084 18, 308 21, 643 33, 330 40, 417 43, 125 48, 137 52, 889 58, 344 67, 120 159, 187, 169 173, 193, 239, 279, 468 574 126 646 561 321 710 1. 58 1. 65 1 83 1 66 1.59 1 52 1. 52 21, 578 21, 073 21, 754 22, 285 69, 731 70, 089 71, 092 72, 033 273, 274, 276, 279, 033 097 767 710 1.54 1.54 1.57 1.56 81, 467 23, 859 81, 021 21, 480 77, 546 22, 590 72, 416 22, 162 67, 328 19, 589 66, 454 19, 954 74, 228 21, 608 72, 229 19, 371 79, 373 21, 273 80, 380 20, 796 74, 121 73, 582 74, 519 70, 897 71, 592 72, 128 72, 876 74, 951 76, 302 283, 284, 286, 286, 284, 281, 282, 282, 285, 211 924 907 629 033 044 463 997 915 1.53 1.54 1.59 1.69 1.72 1. 72 1.68 1.66 1.59 shipments," for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In October the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 0.5 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0.6 percent. Prices of capital equipment rose 1.4 percent. INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) TOTAL FINISHED QQ0DS ••'" / 140 120 100 1980 1972 SOURCE-. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Finished goods Finished goods excluding consumer foods Period 1972 . 1973 1974 1975. _ 1976 1977 1978. 1979__ 1979: Sept. Get . Nov Dec. 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr__ May June July Aug. Sept Get »«ijr 1 Total finConished sumer goods foods Total 117.2 127.9 147.5 163.4 170.3 180.6 194.6 216.1 221.5 223.9 226.6 228.5 232.2 235.5 238.8 240.3 241. 0 242. 7 246.4 250.2 249.8 251.9 121.7 146.4 166.9 181.0 180.2 189.1 206.7 226.3 229.3 229. 1 233.5 234. 1 232.0 231.0 233.4 226.9 227.0 228.7 237.4 247.9 247. 4 248.7 115.4 120.1 139.3 156.2 165.5 176.2 188.9 210.8 216.9 220.1 222.2 224.6 230.0 234.6 238.2 242.0 243. 0 244.6 246.7 248. 4 248. 1 250.4 Consumer goods Total Durable 113.4 118.5 138.6 153. 1 161.8 172.1 183.7 208.2 216.4 220.4 222.9 225.5 232.0 238.6 243.0 246.7 248.0 249. 6 251.2 252.6 252.3 253.9 113.2 115.8 126.3 138.2 144.4 152.2 165.8 181.9 184.7 187.7 189.4 191.6 19ai 202. 1 200.5 201. 2 201.0 203. 7 205.7 207.3 207.0 209. 5 Nondurable 113.6 120.5 146.8 163.0 173.3 185.4 195.4 225.9 237.8 242.6 245.5 248.4 255.0 263.2 272.0 277.7 280.2 281.0 282.2 283.4 283.3 284.0 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and manufactured animal 22 Intermediate materials Total finished Foods Capicontal sumer Total and Other feeds* equip- goods ment 119.5 116.6 118.7 118.5 118.9 123.5 129.2 131.6 168.4 128. 1 141.0 149.3 162.9 200.2 159.5 162.5 163.6 180.0 195.3 178.6 173.2 169.0 189.3 186. 6 189.5 184.5 178.9 201. 7 191.0 202.4 199. 1 192.6 215.5 201.0 216.4 216.7 215.7 242.8 223.2 2440 219.5 222.2 250.7 230.4 251. 9 221.4 224.8 255.0 231.2 256.5 222.9 227. 9 257.3 230.5 258.9 224.8 229.9 260.2 231. 1 262.0 228.4 233.6 267.3 225.1 269.9 230.0 237.6 272.6 237.6 274.7 232.0 241.4 273.9 230.2 276.5 236. 2 241.7 2743 223. 9 277.4 236.6 242. 6 275.4 237.6 277.7 238.3 244.3 277.6 237.7 280. 0 241.3 248.2 279.3 245.4 281.4 243.5 252.7 282. 1 269.2 282.9 243. 2 252.3 283.7 271.6 2844 246. 6 253.8 286.3 288.0 286.2 Crude materials Foodstuffs Total and Other feedstuffs 127.6 127.5 128.0 174.0 180.0 162.5 196. 1 189.4 208.9 196.9 191.8 206.9 205. 1 190. 1 233. 6 2143 190.9 258.4 240. 1 215.3 286.7 282.2 247.2 348.3 291.4 252.3 365.4 2945 252.6 373.7 298.4 255.2 380.2 301.7 255.8 388.5 299.5 246.0 400.9 307.5 251.3 4142 300.9 2444 408.2 290.4 229. 5 406.2 294 1 235. 1 406.2 295.2 237.7 4042 313.6 259.0 417.2 331.6 282.4 4248 335.8 281.4 439.0 342.3 285. 5 449. 9 NOTE.—Data revised for June 1980. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES In October, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 1.0 percent seasonally adjusted (0.9 percent unadjusted). Food prices rose 0.8 percent (0.5 percent unadjusted) and nonfood commodity prices were up 0.8 percent (also 0.8 percent unadjusted). Services prices were up 1.2 percent (1.1 percent unadjusted). INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 300 INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 300 140 140 120 120 110 110 1972 1980 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [1967=100] Period 1972 1973 1974 1975 _ 1976 1977__ _ 1978 1979 _ _ All items Food Commodities less food 125. 3 133. 1 147. 7 161 2 170. 5 181. 5 195. 4 217. 4 123. 5 141. 4 161 7 175 4 180. 8 192. 2 211. 4 234 5 119. 4 123. 5 136 6 149 1 156. 6 165. 1 174. 7 195. 1 Services commodities All Food at home Food away from home 133. 3 139. 1 152. 1 166 6 180.4 194. 3 210. 9 234. 2 120 9 129. 9 145 5 158 4 165. 2 174. 7 187. 1 208. 4 123. 5 141. 4 161 7 175. 4 180. 8 192. 2 211. 4 234. 5 121. 6 141. 4 162 4 175 8 179. 5 190. 2 210. 2 232. 9 131. 1 141. 4 159 4 174. 3 186. 1 200. 3 218. 4 242. 9 225.4 227.5 229.9 233. 2 236.4 239.8 242. 5 244.9 247.6 247.8 249. 4 251. 7 253. 9 238. 2 239. 1 241.7 243.8 244. 9 247.3 249. 1 250.4 252. 0 254.8 258. 7 261. 1 262. 4 203.4 205.4 207.2 210.4 213. 8 216.7 218.6 220. 2 221. 4 222.2 224.2 226.6 228.3 243.6 246.2 249.3 ! 253. 1 i 256.8 261.3 265.3 269.2 274. 2 272.4 272. 5 274.8 277.9 215.8 217.9 220. 4 223. 5 226. 1 228. 8 230.0 230.8 231. 6 233. 0 235. 8 238.7 240. 7 NOTE.—Data beginning January 1978 relate to all urban consumers. Earlier data relate to urban wage earners and clerical workers. All 119. 4 123. 5 136. 6 149. 1 156. 6 165. 1 174. 7 195. 1 Services Durable Nondurable 118. 9 121. 9 130. 6 145. 5 154. 3 163.2 173. 9 191. 1 119. 8 124. 8 140. 9 151. 7 158. 3 166. 5 174. 3 198. 7 133. 3 139. 1 152. 1 166. 6 180. 4 194. 3 210. 9 234. 2 195.7 198. 4 200. 3 202.5 203. 5 204.0 205. 1 206. 3 207.4 208.5 211. 8 215. 1 217.7 210.3 212. 0 215. 0 221. 8 228.4 233.8 235. 1 235.5 235. 8 236.6 237. 6 238. 1 238. 4 243. 5 246. 1 249.5 252. 9 256.8 261. 6 265. 6 269.8 274. 7 272. 5 272. 3 274. 3 277. 6 Seasonally adjusted Unadjusted 1979: Oct Nov Dec 1980: Jan Feb___ Mar Apr May___ June. _ July___ Aug__ Sept___ Oct__ Commodities less food Food All All 239.8 241.4 244.8 244.8 244.7 247. 1 248. 4 249. 2 250. 5 252.9 257. 5 261. 6 263. 6 237. 1 238.5 242. 3 241. 8 240.9 243.5 244. 5 245. 1 246.0 248. 9 254. 7 259. 6 261. 7 249.9 252. 0 254.4 202.9 205. 1 207.3 256.9 258.6 260. 6 262. 5 263.8 266. 1 267. 3 269. 0 271. 4 273.4 211. 5 215.2 217.9 219.0 219.8 220. 4 221.4 223. 5 226. 0 227. 8 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS Period Percent change from preceding period; seasonally adjusted * Percent change from 3 months earlier; seasonally adjusted annual rates Percent change from 6 months earlier; seasonally adjusted annual rates Consumer goods Consumer goods Consumer goods Total finished goods 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1979: Oct Nov Dec 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June » _ _ July Aug Sept Oct Capital Total finequipished Exclud- ment goods ing Foods foods Capital Total equipfinExclud- ment ished ing Foods goods foods Capital equipExclud- ment ing Foods foods 3.2 3.8 11.8 18.3 6. 6 3.3 6.6 9.2 12.5 5.9 8.0 22.5 13.0 5.5 -2.5 6.6 11.9 7.5 2.0 2.0 7.4 20.5 6.7 4.9 6.1 8.4 17.8 2.4 2.0 5.3 22.6 8.2 6.4 7.2 8.0 8.7 1.1 1.2 .8 -.1 1.9 .3 1.8 1.1 1.2 .9 .7 .9 15.7 16.1 13.3 11.8 13.5 8.6 244 21.5 17.9 6.0 9.5 10.0 12.5 14.1 147 2.9 9.1 11.9 21.8 21.3 20.6 7.0 7.5 7.9 1.6 1.4 1.4 .6 .3 .7 1.5 1.5 — .2 .8 -.9 B 4. LO -2.8 .0 .7 3.8 4.4 -.2 .5 2.9 2.8 1.8 1.5 .5 .6 .6 .6 — .1 .6 1.6 .7 .9 1.8 .2 .7 1.3 .9 -. 1 1.4 15.7 16.7 19.3 14.7 9.7 6.7 10.5 16.2 12.2 9.2 5.2 4. 2 -1.2 -8.5 -6.7 -7.8 19.8 42.2 36.9 20.4 22.8 31.3 34.8 27. 9 16.7 11.3 7.5 7.6 4.4 4.4 13.3 13.4 13.4 144 12.0 11.3 8.9 12.2 8.5 9. 1 15.7 16.4 16.2 15.2 13. 1 12.8 12.6 12. 9 9.4 9.9 8.4 4.3 3.6 -1.9 -5.5 -46 47 15.2 12.4 20.1 23.6 26.3 26.1 25.3 23.8 22.5 17.2 12. 1 7.8 5.9 9.6 11.4 11.7 13.8 12.7 12.4 11.6 12. 1 9.9 9.0 * Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted). NOTE.—Based on revised data for June 1980. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES Percent change from preceding period ; seasonally adjusted * Period All items Food Commodities less food Services Percent change from 3 months earlier; Percent change from 6 months earlier; seasonally adjusted annual rates seasonally adjusted annual rates All items Food Commodities less food Services All items Food Commodities less food Services 1971 1972 1973 . 1974 1975 1976 — . 1977 „__ 1978 1979 3.4 3. 4 8.8 12.2 7. 0 48 6.8 9. 0 13. 3 43 47 20. 1 12.2 6. 5 .6 8. 0 11.8 10. 2 2. 3 2. 5 5. 0 13. 2 6. 2 5. 1 49 7. 7 14 3 41 3. 6 6.2 11.3 8. 1 7. 3 7.9 9.3 13. 7 1979: Oet._. Nov.. Dec... 1.0 1.0 1.2 .8 .7 1.4 .8 1. 1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1-4 13.4 13.5 13.7 7.9 10.4 12.1 144 13.5 12.7 15.1 149 15.8 13.4 13.3 13.8 6.8 6.9 9.3 15.1 15.2 145 146 143 15.1 1980: Jan.__ Feb Mar Apr May__ June__ July__ Aug__. Sept... Oct__. 1.4 1.4 1.4 .9 .9 1.0 0 .7 1.0 1.0 0 -.0 1.0 .5 .3 .5 1.0 1.8 1.6 .8 2.0 1.7 1.3 .5 .4 .3 .5 .9 1. 1 .8 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.8 -.8 —.1 .7 1.2 15.6 17.2 18.1 15.9 13.6 11.6 7.6 6.9 7.0 11.3 8.6 5.6 3.8 6.0 7.6 5.6 7.4 14.0 18.9 18.0 18.1 21.2 22.1 15.0 8.8 47 45 6.9 10.6 12.1 16.4 18.6 20.9 21.7 21.8 21.6 10.8 3.8 -.6 7.7 145 15.3 15.9 15.7 15.4 148 11.7 10. 2 9.3 9.4 8.2 8.0 7.9 7.3 6.6 47 6.7 10.7 12. 1 12.6 16.2 17.3 17.3 16.5 14.8 13.0 9.6 7.9 7.6 8.2 15.7 16.7 18.3 19.0 20.2 21.2 16.1 12.4 9.9 9.2 1 Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted). NOTE.—Data beginning January 1978 relate to all urban consumers. Earlier data relate to urban wage earners and clerical workers. 24 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers rose 0.4 percent in October and prices paid by farmers rose 0.7 percent in the month ended October 15. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 320 300 320 300 280 280 260 260 240 240 ^•7 PRICES RECEIVED (ALL FARM PRODUCTS) 220 200 \^ 180 220 200 7 180 PRICES PAID (ALL ITEMS, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES) 160 160 140 140 120 120 100 I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i M I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I Ii ii i i I I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I ii i i iI i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I 100 RATIO I/1 140 80 80! 1980 J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967=100] Prices received by farmers Period All farm products Crops Livestock and products Prices paid by farmers Production items, All items, Production interest, interest, items taxes, taxes, andl and wage wage rates rates Parity ratio2 1972 1973 1974 1975__ 1976 1977 1978 1979 125 179 192 185 186 183 210 241 114 175 224 201 197 192 203 223 136 183 165 172 177 175 217 257 125 144 164 180 192 202 219 250 125 149 169 186 198 208 227 261 121 146 166 182 193 200 217 248 101 124 117 103 97 91 96 97 1979: Oct Nov. Dec 236 238 239 224 226 222 247 251 255 257 258 260 267 267 270 256 256 258 92 92 92 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr_ _ May June July. Aug Sept Oct_ _ 236 238 234 224 227 232 247 256 261 262 220 220 220 217 223 226 242 250 259 260 252 255 247 232 232 237 252 262 263 265 269 271 274 274 275 278 280 283 286 288 281 283 287 285 285 287 290 294 297 299 263 266 270 268 268 270 273 278 282 284 88 88 85 82 83 83 88 90 91 91 1 2 Includes items not shown separately. Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prii interest, taxes, and wage rates. NOTE. — The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required bylaw. The indexes have been converted to a 1967=100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. _ Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS The narrow measures of money decelerated further in October, but the growth of M-2 and M-3 picked up slightly. M-1B and M-2 remained above the FOMCs longer run ranges. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL R COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Ml-A Ml-B M2 L M3 Period 1973: 1974: 1975: 1976: 1977: 1978: 1979: 1979: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec__ Dec Oct... Nov Dec 1980: Jan. Feb Mar Apr May June. _ _ July.. j «_ ... Aug.__ Sept Oct Currency plus demandl deposits ... 264. 1 275.3 287.9 305.0 328. 4 351.6 369. 7 366.6 368.0 369.7 370.8 373.7 373. 1 367.6 367.8 371.3 373.7 379. 7 383.7 386.6 Ml-A plus other checkable deposits at banks and thrift institutions 264.4 275.7 289.0 307.7 332.5 359.9 386.4 382.9 384.2 386.4 388. 1 391.3 391.2 386.6 386.2 390. 9 394.5 401.6 406.9 410.7 Ml-B plus overnight RPs and M2 plus Eurodollars, large time MMMF deposits shares, and and term M3 plus savings and other liquid Ml-A Ml-B M2 RPs at small time commercial assets deposits at banks and commercial thrift banks and institutions thrift institutions 2 7.0 5.5 858. 1 976. 1 1, 137. 2 5.4 4.3 5.6 906.2 4.2 1, 242. 8 1, 058. 6 4.8 12.8 1, 022. 4 1, 369. 6 4.6 1, 161. 0 6.5 14. 1 5.9 1, 166. 7 1, 299. 7 1, 523. 5 8. 1 10.9 1, 294. 1 1, 715. 5 7.7 1, 460. 3 8.3 8.2 7. 1 1, 927. 7 1, 401. 5 1, 623. 6 8.8 1, 525. 5 2, 141. 1 5. 1 7.4 1, 775. 5 7.3 9.8 6.0 1, 510. 1 2, 120. 4 1, 757. 8 9.4 7.2 8.3 2, 126. 4 1, 516. 4 1, 765. 4 8.3 6.8 1, 525. 5 2, 141. 1 5. 8 1, 775. 5 7.7 5.8 1, 534. 5 2, 155. 2 4.9 1, 786. 9 7.5 5.4 6. 1 2, 175. 9 1, 546. 7 1, 804. 5 6.8 4.8 2, 190. 1 4.0 1, 553. 1 1,811. 1 5.3 1.9 .5i 2, 200. 7 1, 549. 9 1, 811. 1 1.0 6. 1 1, 562. 1 2, 216. 6 1, 824. 2 8.0 2.3 .*9 2, 229. 3 1, 844. 5 1, 585. 7 3.3 10.0 1. 6 2, 245. 0 1, 865. 1 1, 609. 7 3.2 5. 3 11.0 1, 629. 2 2, 271. 8 1, 886. 2 8.2 11. 6 5.8 1, 640. 7 1, 900. 5 10.6 12. 9 13.8 1, 653. 3 1, 917. 7 1 Net cf demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions. 3 Total M2 excludes demand deposits held by thrift institutions at commerical banks, not shown separately in components. 3 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. 26 Percent change 3 NOTE.—See page 27 for components. See Federal Reserve Bulletin, February 1980, for details on series. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. M3 11.2 8.5 9.7 11.9 12.4 11.2 9.4 10.9 10.5 9.7 9.3 9.3 7.7 6.2 6.8 7.9 8.9 9.3 10. 1 12. 1 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Overnight Money Over- market SavDe- Other repurnight chase Cur- mand check- agree- Euro- mutual ings dePeriod rency de- l able ments dollars fund shares posits posits deposits (RPs) frtt*4^net/\ Dec: 1973. 61.6 1974_ 67.8 1975. 73.8 1976. 80.7 1977. 88.7 1978. 97.6 1979- 106.3 Small denomination time deposits 2 Large denomination time deposits 2 Term Shortrepur- Term term chase Euro- Sav- TreasBank- Comagree- dollars ings ury ers' merments (net) bonds secuaccept- cial (RPs) rities ances paper NSA NSA NSA NSA NSA NSA 0.3 .4 6.8 7.2 7.5 0.0 .0 .0 .0 1.0 2.0 3.6 0. 1 322. 2 2. 3 333.9 3.6 383.9 3.4 447.7 3.8 486.5 10.3 476. 1 43. 6 416.7 266.4 288.9 340.4 396.6 454.9 533.8 656.5 110.9 144. 0 129.6 118. 0 145.2 194. 7 219.4 15.0 21.0 27. 3 30.5 60.4 63.2 67.3 10.3 71.8 13.7 76.6 22.8 80.6 31.9 80.0 7.1 49.8 4.7 53.4 10. 7 76.8 8.5 80.7 9.0 89.5 12.3 98.7 22. 6 127.5 28.9 41.9 50. 1 48. 1 51.8 63. 1 79.4 97.3 202. 5 207.4 214. 1 224.4 239.7 253.9 263.4 16.7 8.4 13.6 17.6 21. 9 21.7 1979: Oct__ 105.5 261. 1 Nov. 105.9 262. 1 Dec- 106.3 263.4 16. 3 16.2 16.7 25.3 22. 5 21. 7 3.5 3.2 3.6 36.9 436.0 40.4 421.3 43.6 416.7 628.4 647.8 656.5 214. 8 218.5 219.4 33.0 30.5 30.5 33.2 34.0 31.9 82.2 80.3 80.0 123.7 27. 1 96.4 122. 1 28.6 96.0 127.5 28.9 97.3 1980: Jan__ 107.3 Feb.. 108. 1 Mar- 108. 9 Apr. _ 109.0 May- 110. 1 June. 111.0 July. 112. 0 Aug.. 113.4 Sept. 113. 9 Oet*_ 115. 1 17.3 17.6 18.0 19. 0 18.4 19. 6 20.8 21.9 23.2 24. 1 22. 6 23. 0 21. 0 17.6 18.5 19. 6 23.0 25.2 26.4 26.0 4. 1 4. 1 49. 1 56.7 60.9 60.4 66.8 74.2 80.6 80.7 78. 2 77.4 411.8 403. 1 391. 9 377.3 372.7 381.4 393.7 403.8 407.8 410. 1 661.8 671.4 687.6 708.3 718.0 719.6 717.2 717.2 720. 9 727.8 222. 5 228. 6 230.7 234. 2 235. 0 230. 7 226.2 225.3 229. 0 232. 1 29.9 29.2 27.2 27. 1 27.1 28. 1 29.3 31.7 30. 9 32.3 341 79.2 78.1 76.8 75.2 74.0 73.3 72.8 72.6 127.6 128.8 136.3 146. 3 151.8 148.7 145.2 149.7 263.5 265. 6 264.2 258.6 257. 7 260. 3 261. 6 266.3 269. 8 271. 6 1. 1 2.7 4. 1 3.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.6 3.7 3. 7 4.4 8.4 9.0 4.4 6.7 7.9 37.5 37.4 37.9 37.8 36.0 36.0 37.0 28.4 27.6 28.8 29.5 29.4 30. 2 30. 1 29. 6 99.0 99.3 99.8 100.6 99.5 96.5 95.8 96.6 NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. See also page 26. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. * Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions. 2 SmaE denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Installment credit extended Period Total » 1972.. 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977.. 1978 1979 Automobile Installment credit liquidated Revolving Total * Automobile Revolving Net change in amount outstanding Total * Automobile Revolving _ 152, 275 173, 035 172, 765 180, 441 211, 046 254, 057 298, 351 322, 558 43, 702 49, 606 46, 514 52, 420 63, 743 75, 641 88, 987 91, 847 24, 671 28, 714 33, 225 36, 968 43, 946 86, 756 104, 587 120, 728 136, 787 152, 817 163, 276 172, 676 189, 384 218, 794 253, 541 287, 067 38, 081 43, 696 46, 019 49, 444 53, 278 60, 437 69, 430 79, 293 23, 497 26, 711 31,255 35, 628 41, 776 80, 508 96, 811 112, 449 15, 488 20, 218 9,489 7,765 21, 662 35, 263 44, 810 35, 491 5,621 5,910 495 2,976 10, 465 15, 204 19, 557 12, 554 1, 174 2,003 1,970 1,340 2, 170 6,248 7,776 8,279 1979: Sept Oct.. Nov Dec__ 28, 634 27, 695 26, 464 25, 671 8,430 7,676 7,066 7,131 10, 699 10, 424 10, 613 10, 196 24, 188 25, 509 24, 057 24, 322 6,607 7,189 6,533 6,449 9,642 9,760 9,814 9,764 4,446 2,186 2,407 1,349 1,823 487 533 682 1,057 664 799 432 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr. May.. June July Aug Sept 26, 702 27, 076 26, 620 22, 548 21, 239 20, 698 24, 497 25, 601 27, 308 7,780 7,659 7,240 5,725 5,192 4,770 6,609 6,964 7,718 10, 475 10, 458 11, 038 10, 293 10, 089 9,635 10, 522 10, 652 10, 897 25, 24, 25, 24, 24, 24, 25, 25, 25, 6,808 6,778 6,845 6,370 6,535 6,508 6,702 6,790 7,275 10, 186 9,883 10, 427 10, 681 10, 577 10, 383 10, 508 10, 510 10, 551 1,372 2,295 1,437 -1,985 -3, 434 — 3,463 -609 15 1,450 972 881 395 -645 -1,343 -1,738 -93 174 443 289 575 611 -388 -488 -748 14 142 346 . i Includes "mobile home" and "other," not shown separately. 330 781 183 533 673 161 106 586 858 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES Bank credit growth in October moderated slightly from the previous month's robust pace. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 60 60 40 40 1972 1973 1980 1974 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AVERAGES OF WEDNESDAY FIGURES COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period 1973: 1974: 1975: 1976: 1977: 1978: 1979: Total loans and investments Dec 647.8 Dec 713.6 Dec... . _ 744.6 Dec 804.3 Dec . 891. 1 Dec 1, 014. 3 Dec 1, 132. 5 [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] All member banks 3 All commercial banks * Borrowings (millions of dollars, Reserves Loans and leases Investments unadjusted) CommerOther U.S. SeaNonRecial and Total Total Total 2 industrial Treasury secusonal borrowed quired securities rities loans 460.3 519.9 516.9 554.8 632. 1 747.8 847.2 165. 6 197.3 189.8 191.2 211.2 246.5 290.5 58.7 53.7 82. 1 100.6 99.5 93.4 93.8 128.8 140.0 145.7 149.0 159. 6 173. 1 191.5 3498 36.66 3467 3490 36.00 41. 16 43.57 33.68 35.94 3454 3485 35.43 40.29 42. 10 3468 36.41 3440 3463 35.81 40.93 43.13 1,298 703 127 62 558 874 1,473 41 32 13 12 54 134 82 1979: Oct Nov Dec 1, 129. 1 1, 128. 6 1, 132. 5 845.0 843.8 847.2 288.6 288.3 290.5 95.3 94.3 93.8 188.8 190.5 191.5 42.20 43.06 43.57 40. 18 41.15 42. 10 41.93 42.81 43. 13 2,022 1,906 1,473 161 146 82 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr. _. May June July... Aug Sept.4 Oct .. 1, 144. 8 1, 162. 7 1, 165. 2 1, 161. 0 1, 154. 9 1, 152. 0 1, 160. 0 1, 177. 2 1, 191. 0 1, 204. 5 858.5 872.7 874.7 871.6 860.6 853.5 855.0 865.8 876.4 886.2 295.6 301.1 302.8 301.2 297. 7 295.4 296.2 301.4 306.0 312.0 93.2 948 945 93.2 946 97.0 100.9 104 4 106.6 107.9 193. 1 195.2 196.0 196.2 199. 7 201.5 204.2 207.0 208.0 210.3 43.44 43.35 43.67 4485 4445 43.96 42.78 40.75 41. 54 41.74 42.20 41.70 40.85 42. 39 43.43 43.58 42.39 40.09 40.23 40.43 43. 19 43. 14 43.48 4465 4427 43.76 42. 50 40.45 41. 27 41.52 1,241 1,655 2,824 2,455 1,018 365 390 687 1,244 1,335 75 96 150 155 63 12 5 9 24 63 1 Data are averages of Wednesday figures. «Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. »Data are averages of daily figures. Member bank reserves series reflects actual reserve requirement percentages with no adjustment to eliminate the effect of changes in Regulations D and M. 28 * Data for loans and investments are estimates. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses Pur- External Period Total Internal i Crediib market i"unds Total Total Longterm Shortterm Other Total of physical assets 2 Increase in financial assets TV*. LJIS- crepancy (sources less uses) . 104.4 127.8 161. 6 200. 0 191.3 150. 0 . . — . 209. 7 242. 3 295. 7 341. 3 58. 9 68. 6 80. 8 83. 8 75. 7 106. 8 125. 3 139. 9 148. 8 158. 3 45. 5 59.3 80. 8 116.2 115.6 43. 2 84.4 102. 3 146. 9 183. 0 40. 7 45.2 58. 2 73. 0 82. 1 37. 9 60.7 79. 9 94. 7 114. 3 34.2 41.9 45. 3 49. 2 SI. 6 44. 1 49. 1 53. 0 61.5 70. 5 6.5 3.3 12. 9 23. 8 30.6 6.3 11.6 26. 9 33. 2 43. 8 4. 9 14 1 22. 6 43. 1 33.4 5.3 23.8 22.4 52.2 68. 7 95.9 119. 6 145. 8 185.6 179.0 133. 0 183.3 216. 8 274.3 319. 5 80. 3 86. 0 100. 3 123. 3 134 7 99. 9 139. 0 169. 9 195. 9 221. 3 15. 6 33. 5 45 6 62. 3 444 33. 2 44 3 46. 9 78. 3 98. 2 8. 5 8. 2 15 8 144 12. 2 16 9 26.4 25 5 21.4 21. 9 1978: III IV 303.5 322. 1 153.8 155. 9 149.7 166.2 90.4 101. 1 63. 1 66.5 27.3 34.6 59.3 65. 1 2844 298.9 199. 9 203.6 84 4 95.2 19. 1 23. 2 1979: I II III IV- 350. 2 323. 3 377. 3 314. 9 154. 4 159. 0 161. 6 158. 2 195. 8 164. 3 215. 7 156. 7 113.4 123. 9 126. 7 93. 0 66. 7 74.4 76. 6 64. 3 46. 7 49. 5 50. 1 28. 7 82. 3 40. 3 89. 1 63. 6 324. 8 294. 7 360. 5 298. 3 213. 0 228. 6 226. 6 216. 9 111. 8 66. 1 133. 9 81. 4 25. 5 28. 7 16. 8 16. 6 1980: I UP 323. 9 256. 8 153. 7 162. 2 170. 2 94. 6 119. 4 70. 7 71. 1 61. 0 48. 3 9. 7 50. 8 23. 9 305. 4 233. 4 224. 5 222. 2 80. 9 11. 2 18. 5 23. 3 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979_ — * Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits. * Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars, except as noted] Current liabilities Current assets End of period Total Cash U.S. Notes governand Invenment actories securi- counts ties receivable Other current assets Total Notes Other and current accounts liabilities payable Net working capital Current ratio l SEC series:2 492. 3 1970 1971. __ 529.6 1972 . 599. 3 1973 697.8 1974 790.7 3 FTC-FRB series: 1974 .. 735.4 1975 759.0 1976— 826. 3 1977 900.9 1978__1,028.0 1979 1, 197. 7 50.2 53. 3 59.0 66. 3 71. 1 7.7 11.0 10.6 12.8 12.3 206.1 221. 1 248.2 288.5 322. 1 193.3 200.4 225.7 263. 9 313.6 35.0 43.8 55. 8 66.4 71.7 304. 9 326.0 375. 6 450. 9 530.4 211.3 220. 5 282.9 340.3 402.3 93.6 105. 5 92.7 110.7 128. 1 187.4 203.6 223.7 246.9 260.3 1. 615 1.625 1.595 1.548 1.491 73.2 82. 1 87.3 943 103.7 115.8 11. 1 19.0 23.6 18.7 17.8 17.6 265.8 272. 1 293.3 325. 0 381.9 451.8 319.5 315.9 342.9 375.6 428.3 503.0 65.9 69. 9 79.2 87.3 96.3 109. 5 453.4 451.6 492.7 546.8 661. 9 801.7 269.8 2642 282.0 313.7 375. 1 460.5 183.6 187.4 210.6 233. 1 286.8 341.2 282.0 307.4 333.6 354 1 366. 1 396.0 1.622 1.681 1.677 1.648 1. 553 1.494 1978: III ... IV 992. 6 1, 028. 0 91.7 103.7 16. 1 17.8 376.4 381.9 415.5 428.3 92.9 96.3 626. 0 661.9 356.2 375. 1 269.7 286.8 366.6 366. 1 1.586 1.553 1979: III___ III IV _ 1, 079. 1 1, 106. 7 1, 165. 3 1, 197. 7 102. 1 99.7 103. 3 115.8 19. 1 20.7 17. 7 17.6 405.6 418. 1 447.8 451.8 453.0 466.9 490.3 503. 0 99.3 101.3 106. 1 109. 5 701.3 720.4 770. 0 801. 7 393.4 409.2 441. 6 460.5 307.9 311. 2 328.3 341. 2 377.8 386.3 395.3 396.0 1. 539 1.536 1.513 1. 494 1980: IP 1, 233. 2 110.5 17.2 465.9 521.2 118.4 831.4 473.3 358. 1 401. 8 1.483 i Total current assets divided by total current liabilities. Based on data from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury. Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing»Mining, and Trade Corporations, Federal Trade Commission. 1 1 NOTE.—SEC series not available after 1974. See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Trade Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Market interest rates continued to rise in November, reaching levels near, or in some cases above, the March/April peaks. PERCENT PER ANNUM 14 1972 1979 SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW 1980 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] U.S. Treasury security yields Period 1974 _ 1975 1976 1977 . 1978 1979 1979: Oct.. Nov Dec 1980: Jan.. Feb _._ Mar Apr May June . July Aue:_ Sept Oct Nov Week ended: 1980: Oct 25 Nov 1 8 15 22 29 3-month bills * Constant maturities 2 3-year 10-year 7.886 5.838 4.989 5. 265 7.221 10. 041 11. 472 11. 868 12. 071 12. 036 12. 814 15. 526 14. 003 9. 150 6. 995 8. 126 9.259 10. 321 11. 580 13. 888 7.82 7.49 6.77 6.69 8.29 9.71 10.95 11. 18 10.71 10.88 12.84 14.05 12. 02 9. 44 8.91 9. 27 10. 63 11.57 12.01 7.56 7.99 7.61 7.42 8.41 9.44 10.30 10.65 10.39 10.80 12.41 12.75 11.47 10. 18 9.78 10.25 11. 10 11.51 11.75 11. 413 12. 331 13. 344 13. 514 14. 309 14. 384 12. 08 12.82 13.27 12.99 13. 33 11. 76 12.37 12.69 12.63 12.69 NewPrime High-grade Corporate Prime com- Discount home rate municipal mercial rate Aaa charged mortgage (N.Y. paper, bonds bonds yields (Standard3 ( Moody F.R. 5 4-6 4 i>y 5 's) (FIILBB)« banks Bank) months & Poor's) 8.92 10.81 6.09 8.57 7. 83 9.87 9.01 7. 86 8.83 6.25 6. 89 6.33 8.99 6.84 8.43 5.50 6.49 5.35 9.01 6.83 8. 02 5.46 5. 56 5. 60 9.54 9. 06 5.90 8.73 7.46 7.99 4 10.77 12.67 10.28 9.63 6.39 10. 91 11.21 11-12 13H-15 6.98 10.13 13.23 4 11.37 12-12 7.19 10.76 13. 26 15J4-15H 11. 64 15'/2-15% 12-12 10.74 7.09 12.80 11.87 15J4-15W 12-12 7.21 11.09 12.66 11.93 8.04 12-13 15}i-16» 12.38 13.60 12.62 9.09 16.50 13-13 12.96 16%-19K 13.03 12. 04 13-13 8.40 14.93 19J4-19J4 l 13.68 13-12 *18 /2-14 7.37 10.99 9.29 12. 66 14-12 12-11 7.60 10. 58 8.03 12.48 12-11 8.08 11-10 11.07 8.29 12.25 10-10 8. 62 11-11H 11. 64 9. 61 12.35 12.02 10-11 8.95 11. 04 11^-13 12.60 9. 11 11-11 12.31 12. 32 13^-14^ uy21114-14 9.08 11-11 12.27 12. 15 U14^ 12.72 11 11 9.48 13.28 9.65 11-11 uy2-uy2 12.96 14.34 9.51 11-11 15M-15M 12.93 14. 12 9.44 11 12 15>£ 17 12. 96 14.91 1712- 1 Rate on new issues within period. 1 Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. * Weekly data are Wednesday figures. « Beginning November 1,1979, data are for 6 months paper. * Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 30 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Rates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates. Sources;0 Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK AND YIELDS Stock prices resumed their upward trend in mid-November after some hesitation early in the month. The broadly based stock indexes moved to new records, and the Dow topped 1,000 on November 20. INDEX, DEC 31 1965=50 80 INDEX, DEC 31,1965=5 70 - 60 COMPOSITE PRICE INDEX STOCK (NYSE) EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS 10 10 5 - - 5 1972 1980 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Common stock 5 yields (percent) Common stock prices l New York Stock Exchange indexes (Dec. 31, 1965=50) 2 Period Composite Industrial Transportation 1974 1975.. 1976 1977 1978 1979 1979: Oct _ Nov Dec 1980' Jan Feb Mar Apr May . June July Aug Sept Oct Week ended: Oct 1 8 _ _ _ _ 25.... Nov 1 8 15 22 43.84 45. 73 5446 53.69 53.70 58.32 59.27 59. 02 61.75 63.74 66.06 59.52 58.47 61. 38 65. 43 68.56 70.87 73. 12 75. 17 48.08 50. 52 60.44 57. 86 58.23 64. 76 66.68 66.45 69.83 72.67 76. 42 68.71 66.31 69. 39 74.47 78.67 82. 15 84. 92 88.00 31.89 31. 10 39.57 41. 09 43.50 47.34 48.09 47.61 50. 59 52.61 57.92 51.77 48.62 51.07 54.04 59. 14 62.48 65.89 70.76 29.79 31.50 36.97 40.92 39.22 38.21 36.58 36. 55 37.29 37.08 36. 22 33.38 35.29 37.31 38. 53 38.77 38. 18 38. 77 38.44 49.67 47. 14 52.94 55. 25 56.65 61. 42 61.64 60.64 63.21 64.22 61.84 54.71 57.32 61.47 65. 16 66.76 67.22 69. 33 68.29 76.43 75.61 73.57 74. 66 77.03 80.21 89. 64 88. 58 " 86. 05 87.73 90.77 95. 10 70.34 73. 25 71.72 72.20 75.01 79.99 38.80 38.47 37.69 37.59 38.26 38.70 69.62 67.92 66.03 65.89 67.36 67.89 1 Average of daily closing prices. 1 Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed 8 Includes 30 stocks. * Includes 500 stocks. 1 on the NYSE. Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. Finance Utility Standard & Poor's DowEarningscomposite DividendJones price price index industrial3 ratio ratio average (1941-43= 4 10) 11. 59 4.47 82. 85 759. 37 9. 15 4.31 802. 49 86. 16 8.90 3.77 974. 92 102. 01 10,79 4.62 894. 63 98.20 12.03 5.28 96.02 820. 23 13.46 5.45 844. 40 103. 01 5.56 104. 47 840. 39 5.71 815. 78 103. 66 13.77 5.53 836. 14 107. 78 5.41 860. 74 110.87 5.24 115. 34 878. 22 14. 98 5.87 104. 69 803. 56 6.05 102. 97 786. 33 5.77 107. 69 828. 19 13. 09 5.39 114. 55 869. 86 5.20 119. 83 909. 79 5.06 123. 50 947. 33 4.90 126. 51 946. 67 4.80 130. 22 949. 17 961. 88 950. 70 927. 15 939. 55 962. 30 993. 07 132. 30 131. 15 127. 52 129. 62 133. 79 139. 20 4.69 4.76 4.91 4.79 4.68 4.54 NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. gJ FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBT In the first month of fiscal 1981, there was a budget deficit of $17.4 billion, compared to a deficit of $14.6 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS 600 600 500 500 400 403 OUTLAYS RECEIPTS 300 300 200 200 50 50 SURPLUS M OR DEFICIT (-) -50 -50 -100 -100 1972 1974 1973 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 FISCAL YEARS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND Of F1CE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Period Receipts Fiscal year or period: 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976... Transition quarter 1977..... 1978 .. 1979 1980" 1981 (estimates) : First Concurrent Resolution, June 12, 1980_-> Mid-Session Review July 1980 1 First month: Fiscal year 1980 Fiscal year 19811 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the I98t Budget, Office of Management and Budget, July 21,1980. 32 Outlays Surplus or deficit ( — ) 193.7 188.4 208.6 232. 2 264.9 281.0 300.0 81.8 357.8 402.0 466. 0 520. 0 196.6 211.4 232.0 247. 1 269.6 326.2 366.4 94.7 402.7 450.8 493. 6 579. 0 -2.8 -23.0 -23.4 -14.8 -4.7 -45.2 -66.4 -13.0 -45.0 -48.8 -27.7 -59. 0 613.8 604. ,0 613.6 633.8 .2 -29.8 33. 1 38.9 47.7 56. 3 -14.6 -17.4 Federal debt ( end of period) Gross Held by the public 382.6 409. 5 437.3 468.4 486.2 544. 1 631.9 646.4 709.1 780.4 833.8 914.3 2849 304.3 323.8 343.0 34&1 39% 9 480.3 498.3 551.8 610.9 644.6 715. 1 834.0 914. 8 646.8 716.9 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget except as noted. FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first month of fiscal 1981, budget receipts were $5.8 billion higher than a year earlier and budget outlays were $8.6 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 300 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 100 500 500 OUTLAYS 400 400 300 300 NONDEFENSE 200 200 NATIONAL DEFENSE 100 100 1972 1973 1974 1976 1975 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 FISCAL YEARS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Receipts Outlays National defense Period Total Fiscal year or period : 1970 1971 1972. 1973 1974 1975__ 1976 Transition quarter 1977. _ 1978 1979. 1980 *>_ 1981 (estimates) l First month: Fiscal year 1980_ Fiscal year 1981- _ IndiCorpovidual ration Other income income taxes taxes Total Interna- Health In- Other and Depart- tional income ment of affairs security terest Defense, military 193.7 188.4 208.6 232. 2 264. 9 281.0 300.0 81.8 357.8 402.0 466. 0 520. 0 604.0 90. 4 86.2 94. 7 103.2 119.0 122. 4 131.6 38.8 157. 6 181.0 217. 8 244. 1 278.2 32. 8 26.8 32.2 36. 2 38.6 40.6 41. 4 8.5 54.9 60. 0 65. 7 64. 6 66.4 70.5 75.4 81.7 92.8 107.4 118. 0 127.0 34.5 145.2 161. 1 182.4 211. 4 259.4 196.6 211.4 232.0 247. 1 269.6 326.2 366.4 94.7 402.7 450.8 493. 6 579.0 633.8 78.6 75.8 76.6 74.5 77.8 85. 6 89.4 22.3 97.5 105.2 115. 8 135.9 157.5 77. 1 74.5 75. 1 73.2 77. 6 84.9 87.9 21.9 95.6 103. 0 115.0 132. 8 153.9 4.3 4. 1 4.7 4. 1 5.7 6. 9 5.6 2.2 4.8 5.9 5.9 10. 5 10.3 56. 1 70. 1 81.4 91.8 106. 5 136.3 160.9 41.5 176. 7 189.9 210. 1 250. 3 293.8 18. 3 19.6 20.6 22. 8 28.0 30.9 34.5 7.2 38.0 44.0 52.6 64.6 67.6 39. 3 41.8 48.8 53.9 51.6 66.5 76. 1 21.5 85.7 105. 9 109.2 117.8 104. 6 33. 1 38. 9 18.7 21. 2 1.5 1.3 12. 9 16.5 47.7 56.3 10.4 13.0 10.2 12.7 1.2 1. 0 19. 1 23.8 4. 1 5.3 12.9 13. 1 1 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1981 Budget, Office of Management and Budget, July 21,1980. Total Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office oi Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the third quarter, according to preliminary estimates, Federal receipts rose $20.1 billion (annual rate) and expenditures rose $29.3 billion, yielding a deficit of $58.4 billion, $9.2 billion higher than in the second quarter. 1 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 50 50 SURPLUS DEFICIT -50 -50 -100 -100 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976. 1977 1979 1978 1980 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Personal Corpoand rate Total tax nontax profits tax receipts accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Surplus or deficit Federal Government expenditures Federal Government receipts Subsidies Less: GrantsWage less PurContriin-aid current accruals national butions chases Trans- to State Net income for Total of goods fer pay- and interest surplus of less and paid Govern- disments local social inand ment en- burse- product services governsurance terprises ments accounts ments (->, Fiscal year: 313. 9 1976 1977 . . 366.0 1978 _ 414.7 1979.. 483. 7 137. 0 166.0 186. 3 223. 5 51. 7 59. 1 67.7 78. 4 24. 3 24. 5 27.2 29. 4 100. 9 116. 4 133.5 152. 4 371. 1 411.4 450. 1 493. 6 125. 7 140. 3 150. 7 162. 4 156. 5 169. 6 182. 0 201. 7 57. 6 66.3 74 7 79. 3 25. 2 28.4 33. 1 40. 4 6.2 6.9 9.6 9. 8 0.0 .0 .0 .0 — 57.3 —45.5 -35.4 —9.9 Calendar year: 1976.. 331. 4 1977 375.4 1978.. 432. 1 1979 497. 6 1979:1 475.0 II._. 485.8 III- 504.8 IV... 524.7 1980: I 538.4 !!___ 529.9 III»_. 550.0 147. 2 169. 6 194 9 230. 0 213.0 223.4 235.2 248.5 246. 1 249.5 256.2 54. 6 61. 8 72. 0 78. 2 77.2 74.9 79.4 81.4 86.8 65. 6 71.9 23.4 25. 1 28. 1 30. 0 29.4 29.9 30.0 30.7 33.8 43.0 48.4 106. 3 118. 9 137. 0 159. 3 155.5 157. 5 160.2 1641 171.7 171.8 173.5 385. 0 421. 7 459. 8 509. 0 486.8 492.9 516. 1 540.4 561.3 579.1 608.4 129. 7 144 4 152. 6 166. 6 163.6 161.7 162.9 178.4 186.2 193.3 191.4 161. 7 172. 7 185. 4 209. 8 196.8 201.9 217.6 222.7 230.0 235.7 264 1 61. 1 67. 5 77. 3 80.4 77.8 77.7 81.8 84.3 86.0 86.0 87.0 26. 8 29. 0 34 8 43. 1 40.0 42.6 43.5 46.2 50.2 543 53.8 5.8 8. 1 9. 7 9. 1 8.3 9.0 10.2 8.8 8.9 9.8 12. 2 .0 .0 .0 .0 -.2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 — 53.6 —46.3 —27.7 -11.4 -11.7 -7.0 -11.3 -15.7 -22. 9 -49.2 -58.4 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget. 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES [1967=100] Consumer prices (unadjusted) Industrial production (seasonally adjusted) Period United States Canada Japan 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 - 1979: Dec 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June _— July *»_Aug *-_ Sept»__ Oct p 129.8 129.3 117.8 130.5 138.2 146. 1 152.5 152.5 152.7 152.6 152. 1 148.3 144. 0 141.5 140.4 141. 8 143.7 146 0 143. 0 147.5 139.6 147.3 150.5 156.7 164. 0 162.6 162.7 162.9 166.0 162.3 158.9 157. 7 157.8 159.2 190.5 183. 1 163.9 182. 0 189.7 201. 1 217.7 226.6 229.0 241.3 233. 1 236.9 234.4 232. 1 233. 1 222. 1 231. 1 France Germany Italy 145 148 139 149 152 154 161 166 165 166 166 166 160 160 165 165 157 147.7 145. 1 137. 1 149. 1 152.7 155.3 163.2 166 168 169 169 168 164 163 166 164 134. 6 140.6 127.6 143. 5 145. 1 147.9 157.6 165. 6 167.8 174.9 174.2 176.6 162.5 167. 1 165. 2 142.7 160.6 United United CanKing- States1 ada Japan France Germany dom 123. 0 120.0 114.3 117.4 123.0 126.8 131.4 130.3 130. 1 128.4 126.5 123.7 123.0 124. 0 122.8 118.5 116. 1 133. 1 147. 7 161.2 170. 5 181.5 195.4 217. 4 229. 9 233.2 236.4 239.8 242.5 244.9 247. 6 247.8 249.4 251. 7 253.9 130.3 144.5 160. 1 172. 1 185.9 202.4 221.0 230. 1 231. 3 233.3 235.8 237.2 240.0 242.7 244.5 246. 8 249. 0 251.2 147.9 184.0 205.8 224.9 243.0 252.3 261. 3 268.3 270. 8 273.3 275. 5 280.2 282.7 283. 5 284.2 283.7 288. 1 140.7 160.0 178.9 196. 1 214. 5 233.9 259. 1 272.0 277.2 280.2 283.4 286.7 289.3 291. 1 295.5 298.4 301.0 127.2 136. 1 144.2 150.4 155.9 160.2 166.6 170. 1 171.0 172.8 173.8 174.9 175. 6 176.5 176.8 177.0 177. 0 177.3 Italy 134.0 159. 7 186.8 218. 1 255.2 286.2 328. 5 356.6 367.9 374.3 378.2 384.3 388.2 391.7 398.4 402. 4 410. 9 417.9 United Kingdom 150.2 174.3 216.5 252.4 292.4 316.6 359.0 3846 394. 1 399. 7 405.1 419. 0 422.8 426.8 430.4 431.3 434. 1 436. 8 Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, Bureau of International Economic Policy and Research, Office of International Economic Research, in International Economic Indicators. » Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Merchandise exports 1 Merchandise imports General imports 8 Domestic exports Period Total domestic and foreign Total exports 2 Food, Crude Food, Crude bever- matebever- mate- Manu2 facrials rials ages, ages, tured Total and to- and and to- and goods bacco fuels bacco fuels F.a.s. value s Monthly average: 1973 1974 Customs value 5,902 8,167 5,811 8,053 1,078 1,269 895 1,317 3,728 5,294 5,790 8,450 1974 ... _„ 8, 167 1975 8f 966 1976 9,596 1977 10, 096 1978 11,965 1979 15, 136 1979: Sept___ 15, 822 Oct 16, 680 Nov 16, 928 Dec___ 16, 742 1980: Jan 17, 348 F e b _ _ _ 17, 233 Mar . 18, 534 Apr 18, 468 May— _ 17, 678 June___ 18,642 July... 18, 075 Aug 19, 103 Sept.__ 18, 701 8,053 8,842 9,456 9,912 11, 753 14, 868 15, 569 16, 396 16, 575 16, 419 17, 018 16, 950 18, 165 18, 137 17, 303 18, 267 17, 765 18, 788 18, 400 1,269 1,399 1,436 1,330 1,717 2,049 2,296 2,374 2,299 2,413 2,331 2,296 2, 538 2,410 2, 190 2, 366 2,471 2,489 2,779 1,317 1,266 1,341 1,548 1,746 2,351 2,583 2,534 2, 686 2,732 2,854 2,826 2,991 2,867 2,816 2, 921 2^821 3, 181 2,782 5,294 5,913 6,437 6, 679 7,873 9,715 10, 055 10, 444 10, 418 10, 719 11, 173 11, 373 11, 802 11, 745 11, 612 12, 277 12, 015 12, 477 12, 277 8,387 8,048 10, 084 12, 307 14, 332 17, 194 18, 407 19, 037 18, 548 19, 665 20, 945 21, 640 20, 607 19, 308 20, 528 19, 893 18, 995 19, 236 19, 465 1 Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equippment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periodsolaand from monthly detail beginning January 1978. . s ;L * includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. 4 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. C.i.f. (cost, insurance, and freight) import value at first port of entry in the united btates. Data for 1973 are estimates. Manu- Total fac(c.i.f. 4 tured value) goods Merchandise trade balance ExExports (f.a.s.) ports Exports less (f.a.s.) (f.a.s.) imless less imimports ports (c.i.f.) ports (customs (f.a.s.) value) 770 1,120 892 2,653 F.a.s. value 5 892 2,672 827 2,716 991 3,457 1, 186 4,463 1,312 4,325 1,478 5,954 1,402 7,044 •1, 404 7,479 1,689 6,379 1,712 7,775 1,652 7,590 1,406 8,788 1, 544 8,421 1,503 7,284 1,531 7,774 1,584 7,834 1, 600 6, 655 1,468 7,043 1,402 6,667 3,750 4,684 4, 602 4,257 5,398 6,379 8,360 9,353 9,505 9,663 9,950 9,632 11, 183 10, 829 10, 176 9, 969 10, 628 9,951 10, 187 10, 192 10, 485 6, 131 9,033 112 -283 -221 — 229 -866 —866 9,033 —283 —221 8,654 312 918 853 10, 825 581 —488 —1, 229 13, 130 —2, 297 —2,211 —3, 034 15, 258 -2, 473-2, 367 -3,293 18, 244 -2, 125 -2, 057 -3, 108 19, 503 -2,585 -3,681 -2, 357 -3,469 20, 149 -1,620 -2,732 19, 660 -2, 923 -4, 068 20, 809 22, 100 -3, 597 -4, 752 22, 806 — 4,407 -5,573 -2, 073 -3, 138 21, 673 -840 -1,816 20, 284 -2, 850 -3,852 21, 530 20, 922 -1,251 -2, 280 -920 -1,852 19, 927 -132 -1,061 20, 165 -764 -1,644 20, 345 s F.a.s. (free alongside ship) value basis: at U.S. port of exportation for exports and at foreign port of exportation for imports. NOTE.—Data beginning 1975 not strictly comparable with earlier data. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the third quarter, the merchandise trade deficit fell sharply to $2.7 billion from $7.6 billion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 10 10 -15 -15 1972 1980 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted] Merchandise Period Exports 1972__ 1973 1974_ 1975 1976 19771978 1979 Imports Investment income 3 12 Net h»lUtH— ance Receipts Payments NW i\ t? u Net military transactions Nettravel and transportation receipts Other services, net 8 Balance on goods and serv-1 ices Remittances, pensions, and other unilateral transfers l Balance on current account 766 — 1, 941 -3,854 -5, 795 7, 140 184 11, 021 -3,881 2, 124 9, 309 — 7, 186 986 598 22, 893 -4, 613 18, 280 4, 384 9, 382 — 4, 998 711 086 — 9) 464 — 4, 605 - 14, 068 959 — 9, 204 — 5, 055 - 14, 259 -788 4, 878 — 5, 666 806 14, 764 — 6, 572 21, 808 -9, 655 27, 587 — 12, 084 25, 351 -12, 564 29, 286 — 13, 311 32J 587 — 14, 598 42, 972 -22,073 65, 970 — 33, 460 8, 192 12, 153 15, 503 12, 787 15, 975 17^ 989 20, 899 32, 510 1978: III.. IV_. 36, 828 -44, 336 -7,508 10, 557 -5,717 38, 900 -45, 715 -6,815 12, 851 -6, 343 4,840 6,508 139 3 -910 -774 1, 506 -1,933 -1, 233 -3, 166 -820 493 -1,313 1,571 1979: ! _ _ _ II_._ III.. IV_. 41, 42, 47, 50, -7,225 -7,980 -8, 731 -9, 524 7,038 7,270 9,319 8,883 -29 -102 -443 -700 -611 -637 -834 -613 1,448 1,428 1,524 1,405 1980: I.... II *_ III". 54, 708 — 65, 558 -10,850 20, 846 -10,752 54, 710 -62,265 — 7, 555 16, 772 -10,417 56, 419 -59, 145 -2,726 10, 094 -922 6, 355 -1,074 -690 -318 -823 -1,812 -2,635 1,570 1, 422 -1,258 -1,242 -2, 500 49, 381 — 55, 71,410 — 70, 98, 306 — 103, 107, 088 — 98, 114, 745 — 124, 120, 816 — 15l) 142, 054 — 175, 182, 055 — 211, 1 2 805 815 198 237 797 — 6, 416 911 499 649 — 5, 343 041 9, 047 051 9 306 689 — 30[ 873 813 -33, 759 524 — 29, 469 -46, 919 — 50, 885 -54, 258 -59,462 -5, 114 -8, 070 -7,060 -9,225 14, 263 15, 250 18, 050 18, 407 Excludes military grants. Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. * Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. 36 — 3, — 2, — 1, — 420 070 653 746 559 1, 628 886 — 1, 275 — 3, — 3, — 3, — 2, —2 — 3J — 3, — 2, 063 158 18 I 792 558 293 188 695 2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5' 5, 5, 2,732 -110 2, 506 -250 - 1, 324 1,408 -1,383 -1,493 - 1, 407 1, 099 — 1, 552 -1,802 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the second quarter, net recorded private capital outflows totalled $27.6 billion, as compared to a recorded inflow of $6.4 billion in the first quarter. These outflows were largely offset by unrecorded flows of over $23 billion, as captured in the statistical discrepancy. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 40 -10 -30 -40 -40 1972 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] U.S. assets abroad, net [increase/capital outflow (— )] Period U.S. official reserve assets l 2 Other U.S. Government assets U.S. private2 assets Total Foreign official assets Other foreign assets - 14, 497 -4 -22, 874 158 -34, 745 -1,467 -39,703 -849 -51,269 — 2, 558 -35,793 375 -61, 191 732 -61,748 -1, 133 -1,568 -2,644 366 3 474 —4, 214 —3, 693 —4, 644 -3,783 -12,925 —20, 388 33 643 —35, 380 44 498 -31, 725 —57, 279 56 858 21, 461 18, 388 34, 241 15, 670 36, 518 50, 741 64, 096 37, 575 10, 475 6,026 10, 546 7,027 17, 693 36, 575 33, 293 14 271 10, 986 12, 362 23, 696 8,643 18, 826 14, 167 30, 804 51,845 -1,386 8,706 -991 -29, 609 -3, 585 -1,102 -3, 081 322 991 14 631 2,779 — 766 -27, 228 -649 925 — 11,918 — 3, 268 -1,467 -7, 976 502 -1,280 -25, 554 -1,109 17, 069 28,048 4,777 18, 368 12, 292 9,680 Total 1972__I 1973____ 1974 1975___ 1976 1977___ 1978___ 1979_ _ 1978: III___ -9, 977 IV___ -30, 418 1979: I !!___ III___ IV_ Foreign assets in the U.S., net [increase/capital inflow (+)] 2 -7,768 -15,279 — 25, 215 -13,487 1980: I -12,689 II * _ -26, 361 II1>_ 115 182 2,201 -8, 744 6,407 — 10,095 24, 941 5,789 4,025 -1,221 7, 194 5,760 1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDR), convertible currencies, and the2 U.S. reserve position in the IMF. Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. -7, 215 7,816 f Statistical discrepancy Allocations of special drawing rights (SDR) 710 1,139 10, 945 16, 502 19, 152 5,246 1,139 14, 409 -2, 056 1,152 U.S. official reserve assets, Of Total net 1 which: (unad(sum of Seasonal justed, the adjust- end of items with sign ment reversed) discrep- period) ancy -1,879 — 2, 654 — 1, 620 5,753 10, 367 -880 11, 354 23, 822 13, 151 14, 378 15, 883 16, 226 18, 747 19, 312 18, 650 18, 928 -3, 926 -2,850 1,998 3, 190 74 3,020 1,167 10, 364 -825 -3, 641 2,400 11, 264 18, 850 18, 650 21, 658 21, 246 18, 534 18, 928 — 101 1,473 21, 448 21, 921 6,978 23, 100 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and De partment of the Treasury. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars. Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product. Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures. Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits......... National Income. Personal Consumption Expenditures........ Sources of Personal Income. Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income. Corporate Profits. . Gross Private Domestic Investment. Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment. Page . . 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force. Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment. Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries. Productivity and Related Data, Private Business Sector. 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization. Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction. New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade Manufacturers* Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices. Consumer Prices. Changes in Producer Wees Changes in Consumer Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stocks Measures and Liquid Assets Components of Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets Consumer Installment Credit Bank Loans, Investments, and Reserves. Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations Interest Rates and Bond Yields. Common Stock Prices and Yields. . 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt. Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlaws by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries. U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, B.C. 20402 Price $1.30 (single copy). Subscription price: $15.00 per year; $3.75 additional tor foreign maOtog. 00 a ° US. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1980 O—89-700