Full text of Economic Indicators : November 1973
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93d Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators November 1973 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1973 ECONOMIC (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas, Chairman WILLIAM PROXMIRE, Wisconsin, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES RICHARD BOLLING (Missouri) HENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin) MARTHA W. GRIFFITHS (Michigan) WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania) HUGH L. CAREY (New York) WILLIAM B. WIDNALL (New Jersey) BARBER B. CONABLE, Jr. (New York) CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio) BEN B. BLACKBURN (Georgia) SENATE JOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama) J. W. FULBRIGHT (Arkansas) ABRAHAM RIBICOFF (Connecticut) HUBERT H. HUMPHREY (Minnesota) LLOYD M. BENTSEN, Jr. (Texas) JACOB K. JAVITS (New York) CHARLES H. PERCY (Illinois) JAMES B. PEARSON (Kansas) RICHARD S. SCHWEIKER (Pennsylvania) JOHN R. STARK, Executive Director LOUGHLIN F. McHuGH, Senior Economist COUNCIL OF HERBERT STEIN, Chairman WILLIAM J. FELLNER GARY L. SEEVERS Economic Indicators prepared under supervision of FRANCES M. JAMES [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—Isr SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to Issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce* Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at 5 5 cents a single copy or by subscription at $6.50 per year ($1.75 additional for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C 20402 Subscribers who wish to receive it at an earlier date after release may take advantage of provisions for airmail subscriptions. The domestic airmail subscription price is $3.60 additional per year. TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING THE NATION'S INCOME, EXPENDITURE, AND SAVING Gross national product increased $32.5 billion in the third quarter to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,304.5 billion, according to revised estimates. The increase for the second quarter was $29,5 billion and for the first quarter $43.3 billion. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Government Persons Disposable personal income Net receipts Expenditures PerLess: Equals: Less: Less: sonal Tax Interest Total Personal saving Trans- Equals: TransPurpaid and exclud- consumpand fers, fers, or tion Equals: Total nontax transfer ing chases Net disinterest expend- saving receipts interest, receipts expend- interest, of goods payand itures and itures or and and ments sub- 2 services subaccruals sidies 2 transto forsidies fers eigners Period Total 1 Surplus or deficit <—), income and product accounts 196719681969_ 19701971_ 1972_ 546.3 591. 0 634.4 691. 7 746. 0 797. 0 13.9 15. 1 16.7 17.9 18.7 20. 7 532. 4 575. 9 617.7 673.8 727.3 776. 2 492. 1 536. 2 579. $ 617. 6 667. 2 726. 5 40. 4 39.8 38.2 56. 2 60. 2 49. 7 228. 9 263. 5 296.7 302. 5 322. 0 368. 2 62.8 70.7 77.9 93. 2 105. 9 115. 9 166.2 192.7 218.8 209. 4 216. 2 252. 2 242.9 270. 3 287.9 312.7 340. 2 370. 9 62. 8 70. 7 77.9 93.2 105. 9 115.9 180. 1 199. 6 210.0 219. 5 234. 3 255. 0 1972: I 772.8 785.4 800. 9 828. 7 19. 8 20.3 21. 0 21. 8 753.0 765. 1 779. 9 806. 9 700. 2 719. 2 734. 1 752. 6 52. 45. 45. 54. 9 9 8 4 356.9 363.3 370. 5 382. 0 111. 8 113. 0 114. 0 125. 1 245. 1 250. 3 256. 5 256. 9 362. 2 367.2 368.5 385. 8 111. 8 113. 0 114.0 125. 1 250. 254. 254 260. 3 2 7 7 -5.4 -3.9 2.0 -3.8 1973: I II 851.5 869.7 891. 1 22. 1 23. 0 24. 1 829. 4 846. 7 867. 0 779. 4 795. 6 816. 0 50. 0 51.0 51. 1 402. 7 414. 7 425. 4 125. 3 127. 8 131. 6 277.4 286. 9 293. 8 393. 9 403. 1 410. 8 125. 3 127.8 131.6 268. 6 275. 3 279. 0 8.9 1L6 14.7 Net Net exports of goods and services StatisExcess of Total Gross Excess transfers to fortransfers income Gross tical of private or retained domestic invest- eigners or discrepof net earnby ancy ment sons per- Exports Less: Equals: exports receipts investings 3 and Net ment 4 Imports exports Government Gross national product or expenditure Business Period International 1967. 19681969. 197019711972_ 93.0 95. 4 97. 0 97.0 111.8 124. 4 116. 6 126. 0 139.0 136.3 153.2 178.3 -23. 5 -30. 6 -42. 0 -39.3 -41.4 -53. 9 3. 0 2. 9 2.9 3. 2 3.6 3.7 46. 2 50. 6 55.5 62. 9 66.3 73.5 41. 0 48. 1 53. 6 59.3 65.5 78. 1 5. 2 2. 5 1.9 3.6 .8 4.6 1972: !_ 117. 3 124. 1 124. 5 131.6 167. 5 174. 7 181. 5 189. 4 -50. 2 -50. 6 -57. 0 -57. 8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3. 5 70.3 69. 9 74. 0 79. 7 75.8 75. 6 77.7 83. 2 5.5 5. 7 3. 8 3. 5 1973: I II 131.5 132.0 137. 0 194. 5 198.2 202. 0 -63.0 -66. 2 -65.0 3. 0 3.3 3.5 89.7 94.4 97. 0 .0 2. 8 7.6 1 89.7 97.2 104. 5 Personal income (p. 5) less personal tax and nontax payments (fines, penalties, etc.). 2 Government transfer payments to persons, foreign net transfers by Government, net interest paid by government, subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises, and disbursements less wage accruals, s Capital consumption allowances, corporate inventory valuation adjustment, undistributed corporate profits, and private wage accruals less disbursements. Does not include retained earnings of unincorporated business, which are included in disposable personal income. -13.9 -6.8 8.8 -10. 1 -18. 1 -2. 8 -2.2 74 6 9. 866. 9 .4 1. 0 936. 3 983. 5 -.4 2.8 1, 058. 8 1, 156. 6 -0. 7 -2.7 -6. 1 -6.4 -3.4 -1.5 793.9 864.2 930.3 977. 1 1, 055. 5 1, 155. 2 1, 119. 3 1, 143. 3 1, 164. 7 1, 198. 9 -6. 7 -1. 0 1. 6 ,2 1, 112. 5 1, 1 2 4 4. 1, 166. 5 1, 199. 2 3.0 1, 241. 3 .5 1, 26a 9 -4.0 1, 301. 3 a2 1. 1 1, 242. 5 1, 272, 0 1, 304, 5 9.4 9.4 7.6 7.0 3,3 « Private business investment, purchases of capital goods by private nonprofit institutions, and residential housing. 8 Net foreign investment less capital grants received by United States, with sign changed. Source: Department of Commerce. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OR EXPENDITURE In the third quarter, gross national product (seasonally adjusted) rose at an annual rate of 10.6 percent, reflecting an inflation rate of 7.0 percent and an expansion of 3.4 percent in real GNP. The rise in real GNP was somewhat higher and the price rise somewhat lower than in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,400 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 300 800 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES 600 600 GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES 200 200 T""\ NET EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES J 1967 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT I I 1968 1969 I I COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Total Personal Gross conTotal gross private sump- domestic national gross tion product national investin 1958 product expend- ment itures dollars Billions <3f dollars; quarterly Period 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970__ 1971_ 1972^ 1972: I II III IV 1973: I II III _ 551.0 581. 1 617. 8 658. 1 675.2 706.6 725. 6 722. 5 745.4 790. 7 768. 0 785. 6 796. 7 812. 3 829. 8 834. 3 841.3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 590. 5 632, 4 684. 9 749. 9 793. 9 864. 2 930. 3 977. 1 055. 5 155. 2 112. 5 142. 4 166. 5 199. 2 242. 5 272. 0 304. 5 375. 0 401.2 432. 8 466. 3 492. 1 536. 2 579. 5 617. 6 667. 2 726.5 700. 2 719. 2 734. 1 752. 6 779. 4 795. 6 816.0 87. 1 94. 0 108. 1 121. 4 116. 6 126. 0 139. 0 136. 3 153. 2 178. 3 167.5 174. 7 181. 5 189. 4 194. 5 198. 2 202.0 1 This category corresponds closely with budget outlays for national defense, shown on p. 36. 2 Gross national product in current dollars divided by gross national product in 1958 dollars. 1973 1972 1971 1970 Net exports of goods and services Government • Durchases of good s services Federal Total Total National Other defense1 and Implicit price deflator State for total and GNP, local 1958=1002 data at s easonall;y ad juste>d annual rates 5.9 8.5 6.9 5. 3 5. 2 2. 5 1.9 3. 6 .8 -4.6 -5.5 -5. 7 -3. 8 -3. 5 .0 2. 8 7.6 122. 5 128. 7 137.0 156. 8 180. 1 199. 6 210. 0 219. 5 234. 3 255. 0 250. ? 254. 2 254. 7 260. 7 268. 6 275. 3 279.0 64. 2 65.2 66. 9 77.8 90.7 98. 8 98. 8 96. 2 98. 1 104. 4 106. 0 106. 7 102. 3 102. 7 105. 5 107. 3 106.8 Source: Department of Commerce. 50. 8 50.0 50. 1 60. 7 72.4 78. 3 78,4 74. 6 71. 6 74. 4 76. 5 76.6 71. 9 72. 4 74. 3 74. 2 74.2 13. 5 15.2 16. 8 17. 1 18. 4 20. 5 20. 4 21. 6 26. 5 30. 1 29. 5 30. 1 30.4 30. 3 31. 2 33. 1 32.7 58. 2 63. 5 70. 1 79. 0 89. 4 100. 8 111. 2 123. 3 136. 2 150. 5 144. 3 147. 5 152. 4 158. 0 163. 0 168. 0 172.2 107. 17 108. 85 110. 86 113. 95 117. 59 122. 30 128. 20 135. 24 141. 60 146. 10 144. 85 145. 42 146. 42 147. 63 149. 81 152. 46 155. 06 NATIONAL INCOME A $30 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) rise in national income in the third quarter reflected larse increase in employee compensation, farm proprietors1 income, and corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,100 1,100 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1,000 1,000 900 900 800 800 700 700 COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES 600 600 500 500 CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT PROPRIETORS' AND RENTAL INCOME 100 100 1967 1971 1972 1973 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF CO/AMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Total national income Compensation of employees 1 Proprieto rs? income Farm 2 Business and professional Rental income of per- Net interest Corpora }e profits and inventory va luation acIjustment Total Profits before taxes Inventory valuation adjustment 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 481. 9 518. 1 564.3 620. 6 653. 6 711. 1 766. 0 800. 5 859. 4 941. 8 341.0 365.7 393.8 435. 5 467. 2 514. 6 566. 0 603. 9 644. 1 707. 1 13. 1 12.1 14.8 16. 1 14. 8 14. 7 16.7 16. 9 16. 8 20. 2 37. 9 40.2 42.4 45. 2 47. 3 49. 5 50. 5 50. 0 51. 9 54. 0 17. 1 18.0 19.0 20. 0 21. 1 21. 2 22. 6 23.9 24. 5 24. 1 13. 8 15.8 18.2 21. 4 24. 4 26. 9 30. 5 36. 5 42. 0 45. 2 58. 9 66.3 76. 1 82. 4 78. 7 84. 3 79. 8 69. 2 80. 1 91. 1 59. 4 66.8 77.8 84. 2 79. 8 87. 6 84. 9 74. 0 85. 1 98. 0 -0.5 — .5 — 1. 7 — 1. 8 — 1.1 -3.3 -5. 1 -4. 8 -4. 9 -6. 9 1972: III— III IV 911. 928. 949. 978. 0 3 2 6 684. 3 699. 6 713. 1 731. 2 19. 5 19. 9 19. 8 21. 8 53. 1 53. 3 54. 3 55. 3 24. 1 22. 6 24. 9 24. 9 43. 9 44. 8 45. 7 46. 6 86. 2 88. 0 91. 5 98. 8 92. 8 94. 8 98. 4 106. 1 -6.6 -6. 7 -6. 9 -7. 3 1973: I II III v 1, 015. 0 1, 038. 2 1, 067. 8 757. 4 774. 9 794.0 24. 3 24. 4 27. 1 56. 3 57. 1 57.9 24. 7 24. 6 25. 3 47. 9 49. 4 51. 1 104. 3 107.9 112. 4 119. 6 128. 9 129.4 -15. 4 -21. 1 -17.0 1 2 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 4.) Excludes farm profits of corporations engaged in farming and therefore differs from net farm income (including net inventory change) on p. 6 which includes such profits. Source: Department of Commerce. SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $9.2 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in October, somewhat less than the rise in August and September. Wages and salaries rose $6.3 billion, of which $1.5 billion reflected the pay increase for Federal workers (military and civilian) that went into effect in early October. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1,000 1,000 TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME 800 800 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS — \ . JL 600 - 600 400 400 OTHER INCOME 18,«»IHH»»» ,IUlll»»»tf«»tUH! l, , , , ,. . . . i " ' " t , , , . i . . \ .« "" ' 200 200 uiBtnemitmotiiii TRANSFER PAYMENTS l i i t i I I i ill 1967 1968 f ! M 1 I 1 ] \ I1 1969 I ! \ 1 \ || i ! ! 1 1970 SOURCE.- DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Total personal income 1965 538.9 1966 587. 2 1967 629. 3 1968 688. 9 1969 750.9 1970 808. 3 863. 5 1971 1972 939.2 1972: Sept 951. 3 Oct 967. 0 Nov 977.6 Dec 983.6 1973: Jan 989. 1 Feb 997. 4 Mar 1, 003. 3 Apr 1, Oil. 6 May. _ _ 1, 018. 7 June 1, 02a 6 July 1, 035. 6 Aug 1, 047. 3 Sept 1, 058. 5 Oct *»___ 1, 067. 7 ! t t t I I 1 t I f 1 I ! I I t I I !\ I 1 1972 1973 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] 7 Wage Rental Other Propriet ors income income and Divi- Persona] Transfer salary labor 2 Business paydends interest ments of disburse- income * Farm and pro- persons income ments * fessional 18.7 358.9 14.8 42.4 19.0 38.7 19.8 39.9 45.2 394.5 16. 1 44. 1 20.7 20. 0 20. 8 43. 6 22. 3 21. 1 47. 3 21.4 423. 1 14.8 51. 8 48. 0 21. 2 25. 4 14.7 464. 9 49. 5 23. 6 52. 9 59. 6 28.4 16.7 22. 6 509. 7 50.5 24. 3 59. 3 65. 8 32.2 542. 0 50. 0 24. 7 16. 9 23. 9 67. 5 79.1 573. 3 36. 6 16. 8 51. 9 24.5 25. 1 73. 0 93. 2 20.2 24. 1 40. 7 54. 0 627. 8 26. 0 103. 0 78. 0 41. 6 20. 3 638.7 54.3 25. 1 26. 2 78. 9 101. 4 42. 0 20. 8 643. 8 55. 1 25. 1 79. 6 109. 7 26. 3 648.4 42. 3 22. 4 55. 1 24. 7 80. 4 113. 7 26. 3 654. 0 42. 7 22. 3 55. 6 24. 9 112. 6 26.5 81. 1 661.7 43. 0 24. 0 56. 1 24. 8 112. 5 26.8 81. 9 667.2 43. 3 24. 3 56. 3 24. 8 82. 6 113. 8 26. 9 24. 6 671. 1 43.6 56. 4 24. 6 27. 0 83. 4 114. 5 24. 2 43. 9 677.6 56. 8 24. 3 27. 3 84. 5 115. 3 44. 2 24. 4 682. 0 57. 1 24. 6 27. 3 85. 7 115. 9 44. 5 68a 2 24. 6 57. 3 24. 9 116. 0 27. 4 86. 5 693.2 44. 8 25. 9 57. 8 25. 0 116. 9 27. 6 87. 8 58. 0 698. 9 45. 3 27. 1 89.0 25. 3 28. 2 119. 0 706.0 45. 8 28. 3 58. 1 25. 5 120. 2 28. 3 90. 3 712. 3 58. 2 46. 2 28. 3 91. 2 121.4 28. 5 25. 6 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 3) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. 2 Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; compensation for injuries; directors' fees; military reserve pay; and a few other minor items. 4 1971 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance 13.4 17. 7 20. 5 22. 8 26. 3 28. 0 30. 9 34. 7 35. 2 35. 4 35. 7 35. 9 41. 7 41. 9 42. 0 42. 4 42. 5 42. 8 43. 4 43. 6 43. 9 44.0 N onagricultural personal income 3 519.5 566. 3 609. 4 668. 8 728. 3 784.8 839. 8 911. 5 923. 6 938. 8 947. 7 953. 6 957. 4 965. 3 970. 9 979. 5 986. 4 994. 2 1, 001. 8 1, 012. 1 1, 021. 8 1, 030. 8 Personal income exclusive of net income of unincorporated farm enterprises farm wages, agricultural net interest, and net dividends paid by acricultura corporations. Source: Department of Commerce. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME In the third quarter, disposable personal income (seasonally adjusted) rose by the same amount as personal outlays, resulting in almost no change in personal saving. Real per capita disposable income also increased a little, and was 4.4 percent above a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 500 400 I/I/—! I L DOLLARS 4,500 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME DOLLARS 4,500 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1967 1973 1968 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURC& DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Less: PerPersonal sonal tax and income nontax payments Per cap ita disL ess: Perso nal outlayfS posable personal Equals: Persorlal consuroption Equals: incc>me Disex penditure s 2 Personal posable Total saving personal personal Durable NonCurrent 1958 durable Services income outlays 1 dollars dollars goods Billions of dollars 1965_ 1966 1967 1968 _ _ _ 1969_ 1970 1971 1972 538. 9 587. 2 629. 3 688. 9 750. 9 808. 3 863. 5 939. 2 65.7 75.4 83. 0 97. 9 116. 5 116. 6 117.5 142. 2 473. 2 511. 9 546. 3 591. 0 634. 4 691. 7 746. 0 797. 0 444. 8 479. 3 506. 0 551. 2 596. 2 635. 5 685. 8 747.2 66.3 70. 8 73. 1 84. 0 90. 8 91. 3 103. 6 117. 4 Saving as percent of disposable personal Population (thousands) 3 ( percent) Dol [ars 191. 206. 215. 230. 245. 263. 278. 299. 1 9 0 8 9 8 7 9 28.4 32. 5 40. 4 39. 8 38. 2 56. 2 60. 2 49.7 2,436 2,604 2,749 2,945 3, 130 3,376 3,603 3, 816 2, 239 2, 335 2,403 2,486 2, 534 2, 610 2,680 2, 767 6.0 6.4 7.4 6. 7 6.0 8. 1 8. 1 6. 2 194, 196, 198, 200, 202, 204, 207, 208, 303 560 712 706 677 879 045 842 0 2 6 0 52. 9 45. 9 45. 8 54. 4 3, 711 3,765 3, 831 3, 955 2, 2, 2, 2, 716 740 771 841 6. 8 5. 8 5. 7 6. 6 208, 208, 209, 209, 259 634 058 514 325. 0 332. 6 341. 6 50.0 51. 0 51. 1 4, 057 4, 137 4, 231 2, 878 2, 877 2, 894 5. 9 5. 9 5.7 209, 871 210, 221 210, 618 175.5 188. 6 204. 0 221. 3 242. 7 262. 6 284. 9 309. 2 Seasc nally adjiisted annu a I rates 1972: I _ _ . II__ III.. IV.. 910. 926. 943. 976. 8 1 7 1 1973: I.... 996. 6 II... 1,019.0 III- 1,047.1 138. 140. 142. 147. 0 7 8 4 145. 1 149. 3 156.0 772. 785. 800. 828. 8 4 9 7 851. 5 869. 7 891. 1 720. 739. 755. 774. 0 5 1 3 111. 5 115. 1 120. 2 122. 9 288. 297. 302. 310. 801. 5 818. 7 840. 1 132. 2 132. 8 132. 8 322. 2 330.3 341. 6 includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers, and personal transfer payments to foreigners. » See p. 2 for total personal consumption expenditures. 8 9 3 7 300. 306. 311. 319. 8 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1; quarterly data are for middle of period, Interpolated from monthly data. _ _ ^ A , Source: Department of FARM INCOME In the third quarter, net farm income excluding inventory change (seasonally adjusted) rose 4 percent and including inventory change 10 percent. Real net income per farm was 24 percent higher than a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 100 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 100 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 80 80 REALIZED GROSS FARM INCOME 60 60 40 40 NET FARM INCOME INCLUDING NET INVENTORY CHANGE 20 20 J 1968 1969 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE ]'ncome re ceived fro m farmingr Net t(3 farm oper ators Realize d gross 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1974 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Personal income re ceived by total i arm popu lation Period L 1973 1972 1971 1970 From all sources From farm sources 23. 6 24. 9 24. 0 25. 1 27. 6 28. 3 29. 2 34. 0 13. 5 14. 4 13. 1 13. 2 14. 9 15. 1 15. 2 18. 1 From nonfarm sources Net inc ome per farm incl uding net inventor3r change 3 ProducCash tion ex- Exclud- Includreceipts penses ing net in- ing net in- Current 1967 from Total l ventory ventory dollars dollars 4 2 marketchange change ings Billions c)f dollars Dollars 1| 10. 0 10. 5 10. 9 11. 9 12. 7 13. 2 14. 0 15.9 44. 9 49.7 49. 0 50. 9 55. 6 57. 8 59. 7 68. 9 39.3 43.3 42. 7 44. 1 48. 1 50. 5 52. 8 60. 7 30.9 33. 4 34. 8 36. 2 38. 8 41. 0 44. 5 49. 2 14. 0 16. 3 14. 2 14. 7 16. 8 16.8 15.2 19.7 15. 0 16. 3 14. 9 14. 8 16. 9 16. 9 16. 9 20.3 4,465 4, 990 4, 707 4,828 5,620 5, 725 5, 817 7, 089 4, 700 5,092 4, 707 4,642 5, 156 5,022 4, 888 5, 717 19. 6 20. 0 19. 9 21. 9 24. 4 24. 7 27. 2 6, 6, 6, 7, 8, 8, 9, 5, 600 5, 620 5, 540 6, 060 6, 580 6,410 6, 860 Seaso natly adju $ted annii ai rates 1972: I !!___ III IV 1973: I II III 1 Cash receipts irom marketings, Government payments, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year. Also, see footnote 2, p. 3. 3 Based on Census of Agriculture definition of a farm. The number of farms is held constant within a year. 65. 8 68. 1 68. 7 72. 8 79.8 82. 5 91. 4 57. 8 59. 8 60. 5 64. 6 72. 4 75.5 84. 5 47. 0 48. 8 49. 4 51. 5 55. 8 58. 0 65. 9 18. 8 19. 3 19. 3 21. 3 24. 0 24. 5 25. 5 830 970 930 630 620 720 610 * Income in current dollars divided by the index of prices paid by farmers for family living items on a 1967 base. Source: Department of Agriculture. CORPORATE PROFITS Although corporate profits before taxes rose only $% billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter, the rise including inventory valuation adjustment came 'o $4% billion, according to preliminary estimates. A leveling out in after-tax profits brought to a halt 10 straight quarters of increases. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 160 160 40 40 20 20 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Con)orate pr ofits Period All Industries (befc)re taxes) and inveritory valuation adjustme at TransM anufactui ing portation, comNonDurable durable muniAll goods cation, other 1 goods Total indusand tries public tries utilities 39. 3 22. 8 16. 6 25.6 11. 1 42.6 24. 0 18. 6 27.9 11. 9 38. 7 20. 7 18. 0 29. 1 10. 8 41.7 22. 4 19. 3 32. 0 10. 6 36. 6 18.8 17.7 33. 1 10. 1 27.8 10.5 17. 3 33. 7 7.8 32.5 14.7 17.8 39. 1 8. 6 40. 1 20.2 20.0 41.7 9. 3 1965 1966 1967 1968 _ ___ 1969___ _ _ 1970 1971 1972 ___ 76. 1 82.4 78.7 84. 3 79.8 69. 2 80. 1 91. 1 1972: I 86. 2 88. 0 91. 5 98.8 37.3 38.7 39.9 44. 7 18. 7 20.2 19.5 22. 3 18. 6 18.5 20. 4 22.4 8.5 8. 9 9.8 9.9 1973: !.___ 104. 3 II. - 107. 9 49.7 52. 4 26.9 28. 5 22.8 23. 9 9.2 8. 5 II III.. IV__ III*>_ 112.4 Corpo- Corporate rate tax profits before liabiltaxes ity Total DiviUndend distributed payments profits Corporate capital consumption allow-2 ances Profits plus capital consumption allowances 3 77. 8 842 79. 8 87. 6 84. 9 74. 0 85. 1 98. 0 31. 3 34.3 33.2 39.9 40. 1 34. 8 37.4 42. 7 46. 5 49. 9 46. 6 47. 8 44. 8 39.3 47.6 55. 4 19. 8 20.8 21.4 23. 6 24. 3 24. 7 25. 1 26. 0 26. 7 29. 1 25.3 24. 2 20. 5 14. 6 22. 5 29. 3 36. 4 39. 5 43. 0 46. 8 51.9 56. 0 60. 4 65. 9 82.9 89. 5 89. 6 94. 6 96.8 95. 2 108. 0 121. 3 40. 4 40. 4 41. 7 44. 3 92. 8 94. 8 98.4 106. 1 40. 6 41. 4 42. 9 45. 9 52. 2 53.4 55. 6 60. 3 25.7 25. 9 26. 2 26. 4 26.5 27. 5 29. 4 33. 9 63. 4 66. 2 66. 0 68. 0 115. 6 119. 6 121. 6 128. 3 45. 4 47.0 119. 6 128. 9 129. 4 52. 7 57. 4 57.9 66. 9 71.6 71.5 26. 9 27. 3 28. 1 40. 0 44. 2 43.5 69. 3 70. 5 71.8 136.2 142. 1 143. 3 1 Includes all other industries and financial institutions. 2z Includes depreciation and accidental damages. Corporate profits after taxes plus corporate capital consumption allowances. 24-444°—73- CoriDerate pr ofits a fter taxe s Source: Department of Commerce. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT Gross private domestic investment rose moderately in the third quarter mainly because of the rise in nonresidentsa! fixed investment. Residential construction outlays edged down for the first time in over 3 years while inventory investment was unchanged, according to revised estimates. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 200 50 50 1967 SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVIScf [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Fixed im/estment Period Total gross private domestic investment Resid ential struc tures N<mresident ial Total Struc tures Total Total Nonfarm Produce rs? durable equ ipment Total Nonfarm Total Nonfarm Change in business in\ entories Total Nonfarm 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 87. 1 94.0 108. 1 121. 4 116. 6 126. 0 139.0 136. 3 153. 2 178. 3 81. 3 88. 2 98. 5 106. 6 108. 4 118. 9 131. 1 131.7 147. 1 172. 3 54. 3 61. 1 71.3 81. 6 83. 3 88. 8 98. 5 100. 6 104.4 118.2 19. 5 21.2 25. 5 28. 5 28. 0 30. 3 34.2 36. 1 37.9 41.7 18. S 20.5 24. 9 27. 8 27. 3 29. 6 33.5 35.3 37.0 40.8 34.8 39. 9 45. 8 53. 1 55. 3 58. 5 64. 3 64. 4 66.5 76. 5 31. 2 36.3 41. 6 48. 4 50. 0 53. 6 59. 2 58.9 60. 9 69. 8 27.0 27. 1 27. 2 25. 0 25. 1 30. 1 32. 6 31. 2 42.7 54. 0 26. 4 26. 6 26. 7 24. 5 24. 5 29. 5 32. 0 30. 7 42. 2 53. 5 1972: I II III IV 167. 5 174. 7 181. 5 189. 4 165. 8 169. 2 172. 9 181. 2 114. 0 116. 3 118. 3 124. 3 41. 0 41. 5 41. 3 43. 0 40. 1 40. 6 40. 4 42. 1 73. 1 74. 9 77. 0 81. 2 67. 3 68. 9 69. 8 73. 4 51. 8 52. 8 54. 5 56. 9 51. 2 52. 3 53. 9 56. 4 5. 5 8. 7 8. 2 4.8 8.4 1973:1 II III 194. 5 198. 2 202. 0 189. 9 193.7 197.3 130.9 134. 1 138.0 45. 3 47.2 49. 5 44. 4 46. 3 48. 5 85. 5 86. 9 88. 6 77. 8 78. 4 80. 0 59. 0 59. 6 59. 2 58.4 59. 1 58.6 4.6 4.5 47 4. 4 3. 2 Source: Department ©f Commerce. 8 5. 9 5.8 9. 6 14. 8 8. 2 7. 1 7.8 4. 5 6. 1 6. 0 1.7 5.1 6.4 8. 6 15.0 7. 5 6. 9 7. 7 4. 3 4. 5 5. 6 1. 4 7. 9 4.4 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Businessmen in the July-August survey projected a 13 percent rise in plant and equipment expenditures from 1972 to 1973. Outlays were expected to show a strong rise from the first to the second half of this year. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AhMJAL RATES 100 100 TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT 80 30 60 60 NONMANUFACTURING 40 40 MANUFACTURING t I . I 1970 20 1968 1967 1969 t t y \ y A 20 1973 1972 1971 V SEE FOOTNOTE 3 BELOW. SOURCE' DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nronman ufacturki g M a-nufactur ing Period Trarisportat ion Total * Total 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 3 1972: I II III IV 1973: I II III» IV 3 54. 42 63. 51 65.47 67. 76 75.56 79.71 81. 21 88. 44 100. 20 86.79 87. 12 87.67 91.94 96. 19 97. 76 101. 88 104. 36 23. 44 28. 20 28. 51 28. 37 31.68 31. 95 29. 99 31. 35 37. 44 30.09 30. 37 30. 98 33. 64 35. 51 36. 58 38. 18 39.05 Durable goods Nondurable goods Total 11.50 14.06 14.06 14. 12 15.96 15. 80 14. 15 15. 64 19.07 15. 06 14. 77 15. 67 16.86 17. 88 18.64 19.52 19.98 11. 94 14. 14 14. 45 14. 25 15. 72 16. 15 15. 84 15. 72 18.38 15.02 15. 60 15. 31 16. 78 17.63 17.94 1R66 19.08 30. 98 35. 32 36. 96 39.40 43. 88 47. 76 51. 22 57. 09 62. 75 56. 70 56. 75 56. 70 58.30 60.68 61. 18 63.70 65.30 1 Excludes agricultural business; real estate oper itors; medic.*lf legal, edu cationalj and cultural service and nonpro fit organizati DBS. 2 Includes trade, service, construction , finance, am3 insurance, 3 Estimates based on ex]Dected capiteil expenditur es as report ed by busin ess in late July and August 1 973. Includes adjustmen ;s when necc ssary for sys tematie tendencies in expecta tions data. Mining 1. 46 1. 62 1. 65 1.63 1. 86 1. 89 2. 16 2. 42 2.83 2.42 2. 38 2. 40 2.46 2. 59 2.77 3.00 2,94 Railroad Air 1. 99 2. 37 1. 86 1. 45 1. 86 1. 78 1. 67 1. 80 2. 01 2. 10 1. 88 1. 50 1. 71 2. 11 L75 2. 03 2. 16 1. 22 1.74 2. 29 2. 56 2.51 3.03 1. 88 2. 46 2. 34 1.96 2. 89 2. 67 2. 33 2. 21 2. 72 2. 37 2. 05 ComPublic muni- Comutilities cation mercial and Other other 2 1.68 1. 64 1.48 1. 59 1. 68 1. 23 1. 38 1. 46 1. 54 1. 48 1. 53 1. 41 1. 42 1.53 1. 62 1. 72 1. 33 6. 13 7.43 & 74 10. 20 11. 61 13. 14 15. 30 17. 00 19. 36 16.92 16.60 17. 01 17. 53 18. 38 18. 08 19. 84 20. 96 5. 30 13. 19 14. 48 6. 02 6. 34 14. 59 6.83 15. 14 8. 30 16. 05 10. 10 16. 59 10. 77 18. 05 20. 07 11. 89 13. 24 21. 4.4 20. 10 11.71 11. 59 19. 88 11.56 20. 16 12. 63 20. 21 12. 34 21. 53 21. 55 ^12. 70 34/ 74 35. 86 N OTE. — Anrniial total is the sum of unadjtisted expeiiditures; it does not nece ssarily coliicide with 1 he averag e of season?illy adjuste d figures. Tlaese figures do not agre<a with the totals inclu ded in the p-oss natioilal product estiinates, printripally beesrase the 1?itter cover agricultura [ investmerit and also certejan equipm snt and con struction outlays chjirged to cu rrent expen se. fin nrr>.<v Op.na rt.mfin t of C 1 rim m p.rp.p EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE Civilian employment (seasonally adjusted) increased by 568,000 to 85.7 million in October. Employment increased in the nonagricultural sector (467,000) and, reversing a 2-month decline, increased in the agricultural sector (101,000). Unemployment declined by 207,000, to 4.1 million, the lowest level since June 1970. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 90 PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE uNE/^ LoY^A ENIT 3 t E;kS Dh•4A LL r R/aE AC)JL 51 ED - - ~ - -- ; 19<:>7 i 1 95C) 96?\ 97:I 9 71 19,7Q t *16 YEARS OF AGE AMD OVER. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Period 1969___ 1970___ 1971 __ 1972*__ Total labor force (including Armed Forces) 84, 85, 86, 88, 240 903 929 991 77, 78, 79, 81, 902 627 120 702 Nonagricul- Unemployment Thous ands of 74, 296 2,832 75, 165 4, 088 75, 732 4, 993 78, 230 4, 840 Total labor force (including Armed Forces) oersons 16 84, 240 85, 903 86, 929 88, 991 Unadji ^sted 1972: Sept* Oct.. Nov_ Dec__ 1973: Jan__ Feb__ Mar* Apr__ May. June_ July_ Aug_ Sept__ Oct.. 89, 89, 89, 89, 098 591 400 437 88, 122 89, 075 89, 686 89, 823 89, 891 92, 729 93, 227 92, 436 91, 298 92, 046 82, 82, 82, 82, 034 707 703 881 81, 043 81, 838 82, 814 83, 299 83, 758 85, 567 86, 367 85, 921 84, 841 85, 994 Civilein emplc yment Civilian labor force Total Agricultural Nonagricul- years of age and o ver 80, 734 77, 902 3, 606 74, 296 82, 715 78, 627 3, 462 75, 165 84, 113 79, 120 3,387 75, 732 86, 542 81, 702 3,472 78, 230 <.Seasonally adjusted b 19 73 Labor Unem- Unemp] oyrnent force rcent of ploy- rate (pen labor particicivilia ment pation for ce) rate1 i Percent 2,832 4, 088 4,993 4, 840 3. 5 4. 9 5. 9 5. 6 Unadjusted 4,810 4, 839 5. 4 5. 1 4. 9 4.7 5. 5 5. 5 5.2 5. 1 61. 2 61. 2 61. 0 61. 1 5.5 5. 6 5.2 4. 8 4.3 5. 4 5. 0 4. 7 4. 7 4. 2 5.0 5. 1 5. 0 5. 0 5. 0 60. 7 61. 1 376 986 340 719 4, 4, 4, 4, 658 470 266 116 89, 471 89, 651 89, 454 89, 707 87, 87, 87, 87, 066 236 023 267 82, 256 82, 397 82, 525 82, 780 3, 579 8, 658 3, 556 3, 650 78, 677 78, 739 78, 969 79, 130 78, 088 78, 882 79, 683 80, 004 80, 291 81, 514 82, 201 82, 095 81, 406 82, 469 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 675 845 512 174 799 847 550 208 165 763 89, 325 89, 961 90, 629 90, 700 90, 739 91, 247 91, 121 90, 958 91, 694 92, 053 86, 921 87, 569 88, 268 88, 350 88, 405 88, 932 88, 810 88, 651 89, 403 89, 764 82, 555 83, 127 83, 889 83, 917 84, 024 84, 674 84, 614 3, 501 3,424 3,480 3, 311 3, 275 3,403 3,516 3,443 3, 370 3, 471 79, 054 79, 703 80, 409 80, 606 A, 379 81, 271 81, 098 80, 991 81, 757 82, 224 4, 381 4, 258 4, 196 4, 217 4, 276 4, 069 78, 78, 79, 79, 1 Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over. Source: Department of Labor, 10 r COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Civiligin employ nient Total -, 84, 434 85, 127 85, 695 so, 749 4, 498 4,487 4, 366 4,442 4, 433 i 61. 1 61. 3 61. 0 61.0 Seasc nally adju sted 4. 8 4. 7 4.8 4.8 4.5 61. 4 61. 4 61.3 61. 6 61. 4 61. 2 61. 6 61. 8 *Data beginning January 1972 not strictly comparable with prior data because \ of adjustment to 1970 Census data, which added 333,000 to the civilian labor force and 301,000 to civilian employment. A further adjustment in March 1973 added 60,000 to the labor force and to employment. SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND PART-TIME EMPLOYMENT In October fhe unemploymenf rate (seasonally adjusted) declined by 0.3 percentage point to 4.5 percent. This is a decline of 1.0 percentage points since October 1972. The unemployment rate for married men was 2.1 percent for the fourth consecutive month. Labor force time lost again declined by 0.1 percentage point, to a level of 5.0 percent. PERCENT PERCENT 10 110 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED LABOR FORCE TIME LOST / // UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, EXPERIENCED WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS 1973 1967 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Onernploymen t rate (percen t of civili an labor for ce in groiip) Period Experi- Married Labor force enced All time lost ] wage and men (wife workers salary workers present) Per cent 1969 1970 1971. . 1972 3.5 __ 1972: Sept Oct Nov Dec 1973: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept _ . Oct 1 4. 9 5. 9 5. 6 3. 3 1. 5 4.8 2.6 5. 7 3. 2 5. 3 2. 8 Seasonal! ?/ adjusted 5. 2 2. 8 5.6 2. 8 5. 5 5. 2 2.5 5. 2 4.9 4.8 5. 1 2.4 5.0 5. 1 5. 0 5. 0 5. 0 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.6 4. 7 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.4 4.4 4. 5 4.2 2.4 2.4 2. 5 2.4 2. 3 2. S 2. 1 2. 1 2. 1 2. 1 3. 9 5. 3 6. 4 6.0 5. 8 5. 8 5.4 5. 3 5. 8 5.4 5. 2 5. 3 5. 3 5. 1 5. 2 5. 2 5. 1 5. 0 Persons at work i n nonagri cultural iridustries bv hours worked j)er week 2 Uiider 35 he urs Part-ti me for Part-ti me for economi c reasons economi c reasons Over 40 35-40 hours Total hours Usually Usually Usually Usually fullpartfullparttime 4 time 3 time 4 time 3 T ho us ands of pers ons 16 ye ars of age and over 20, 608 34, 201 15. 210 855 955 18, 925 33, 537 18, 222 995 1, 201 19, 095 35, 752 16, 298 1, 184 1, 256 20, 320 36, 794 16, 549 1, 327 1, 081 I Jnadjustec I Seasonall il adjusted 21,881 37? 409 15, 176 1} 107 1, 136 1, 070 1,277 20, 735 33, 864 20, 979 980 1, 086 1,237 1,027 21, 404 37, 566 17, 379 946 1, 065 1, 025 1, 192 1, 073 21, 740 37, 483 17, 543 917 1,213 968 19, 527 35, 819 18, 557 951 948 893 1, 130 1,020 20, 311 35, 844 19, 305 1,068 1, 020 1,254 21, 485 37, 537 17, 378 967 1, 096 940 1,258 20, 968 37, 983 18, 000 962 987 966 1, 149 37, 904 17, 239 1, 031 21, 966 949 1, 216 1,04® 1,772 21,467 38, 306 15,714 1, 195 1,083 1,420 1, 192 20, 424 37, 040 14, 283 1,129 1,886 1,222 20, 503 37, 125 14, 326 1, 315 1, 567 1, 190 1, 109 22, 631 38, 451 16, 172 5 1, 126 5 1, 092 1,090 1,228 21, 797 34, 956 22, 136 1, 046 1, 108 1,098 1,263 Man-hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for economic reasons as a percent of potentially available labor force man-hours. 2 Differs from total nonagricultural employment (p. 10), which includes persons with jobs but not at work for such reasons as vacation, illness, bad weather, and industrial disputes. 3 Includes persons who worked part-time because of slack work, material shortages or repairs, new job started, or jeb terminated. 4 Primarily 6 includes persons who could find only part-time work. Average hours worked: usually full-time, 23.7; usually part-tune, 19,1. Source: Department of Labor. 11 UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In October, insured unemployment under State programs averaged 65,000 lower than a year earlier. The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.7 percent for the seventh month in a row. MILLIONS OF PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS WEEKLY INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT JSTATE PROGRAMS! JAR MAR. APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. SOURCE* DEPARTMENT Of lABOt Not charted. 12 Stiate progrsims Insured Total unem- benefits Insured Covered ploypaid unememploy- ment (milployment (weekly lions ment averof dolage) lars) Period 1 DEC COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS A 11 prograrns 1969 1970 1971 9 1972^ 1972: Sept" Oct 9 Nov* _ ' Dee* 1973: Jan * _ _ _ Peb* Mar » •' Apr355.. • May • • June v ' •• • July *___ __ • Aug **__ Sept* Oct *L_ • Week ended: 1973: Oct 13 20 ___« 27 Nov 3 » _ _ _ • .. < 10» NOV. Thou sands 59, 999 1, 177 59, 526 2, 070 59, 375 2, 313 2, 185 1,554 1,512 1,692 1, 994 2, 332 2,250 2,075 1,828 1, 610 1,522 1,645 1,563 1,439 1,428 ' 1, 469 1,435 1,489 1 S 496 2, 298. 6 4, 179. 1 5, 498. 2 5, 000. 0 313. 5 311. 4 338.7 372. 1 522. 1 458. 9 459.4 401. 6 378. 0 334. 7 320. 1 324. 6 312. 1 309. 3 Initial claims InsurecI unemploymerit as perExhaus- cent of covered emplo yment tions Unad- Seasonjusted ally adjusted Weekly iaverage, t tiousands 1, 101 200 16 1,805 296 25 2, 150 295 38 1,850 265 37 1, 388 29 190 1, 357 214 26 1, 507 253 28 1, 801 324 28 2, 124 331 33 2,069 32 249 1,898 213 33 1, 669 216 33 1,465 193 30 206 1, 383 29 1,505 274 30 216 31 1, 436 1,299 185 29 1,292 210 31 Per cent 2. 1 3. 4 4. 1 3.5 2.6 2. 5 2.7 3.3 3.8 3.7 3.4 2. 9 2. 5 2. 4 2.5 2.4 2. 1 2. 1 1,302 1, 283 1,332 1 1, 338 2. 1 2. 1 2. 1 2.1 207 208 201 230 278 Source: Department of Labor. 3.4 3.4 3.3 S.O 2. 7 2.8 2. 8 2. 7 2. 7 2. 7 2. 7 2. 7 2. 7 3.7 Benefi ts paid Total Average (milweekly lions of check dollars) (dollars) 2, 127. 9 3, 848. 5 4, 957. 0 4, 550. 0 280. 1 280.3 307. 2 342. 0 465. 3 415. 0 440. 9 361. 6 337.5 316. 9 298. 7 301. 4 289. 1 287.6 46. 17 50.34 54.02 57.00 60. 16 56.95 57.59 58. 35 58. 69 59.08 59. 09 58. 96 58.06 57.26 57. 31 58. 61 58. 63 58. 66 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 305,000 (seasonally adjusted) to 76.3 million in October. This is an increase of 751,000 since June 1973. Employment increased in October in the private manufacturins sector (105,000) and the private nonmanufacturing sector (175,000). MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS {SEASONALLY ADJUSTED} MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 76 16 (ENLARGED SCALE) 72 14 WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE -ALL NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS 68 i 44 12 i SERVICES NONMANUFACTURING (PRIVATE) 40 \ DURABLE MANUFACTURING 12 36 10 24" NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING MANUFACTURING 20 16 GOVERNMENT CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION 12 1970 SOURCE; 1971 1972 1970 1973 1972 1971 1973 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of wage and salary workers;1 seasonally adjusted] N onmanu facturing 5 (private) Manufac ;turing ( private) | Period Total 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1972: Sept. Oct.. Nov. • Dec.. 1973: Jan.. Feb__ Mar. Apr MayJune_ Juiy__ Aug.. ' Sept* Oct». 65, 857 67, 915 70, 284 70, 593 70, 645 72, 764 73, 268 73, 584 73, 835 74, 002 74, 252 74,715 74, 914 75, 105 75, 321 75, 526 75? 493 75, 747 75, 972 76? 277 Total 19, 447 19, 781 20, 167 19, 349 18, 529 18, 933 19, 069 19, 210 19, 312 19, 402 19, 463 19, 586 19, 643 19, 727 19, 782 19, 856 19, 804 19, 861 19, 876 19, 981 NonDurable durable goods goods 11, 439 11, 626 11, 895 11, 195 10, 565 10, 884 11,003 11, 112 11, 194 11, 270 11, 326 11, 421 11, 463 11, 534 11,602 11,654 11, 646 11, 692 11, 707 11, 793 8,008 8, 155 8,272 8, 154 7,964 8, 049 8, 066 8, 098 8, 118 8, 132 8, 137 8, 165 8, 180 8, 193 8, 180 8, 202 8, 158 8, 169 8, 169 8, 188 Total Con- Trans- Whole- Finance, insursale tract portation ance, Services Federal State Mining conand and and and local strue- public retail i real tion utilities trade estate 35, 012 36, 288 37, 915 38, 709 39, 261 40, 541 40, 814 40, 968 41, 070 41, 098 41, 311 41, 596 41, 697 41, 764 41, 897 42, Oil 42, 079 42, 249 42, 425 42, 600 k 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in n onagri cultural 'establishments who worked during or received pay for any part ol the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 10, which include proprietors, self-employed Cover nment 613 3, 208 606 3, 285 619 3, 435 623 3, 381 602 3,411 607 3, 521 606 3, 551 608 3, 561 608 3, 524 607 3, 459 610 3, 498 612 3, 594 610 3,604 608 3, 571 608 3, 620 629 3, 654 631 3, 680 634 3, 676 633 3, 694 638 3,689 4,261 4,310 4,429 4,493 4,442 4, 495 4, 507 4, 540 4, 549 4, 558 4,574 4, 580 4,580 4,591 4,593 4, 597 4, 598 4, 617 4, 632 4, 666 13, 606 14, 084 14, 639 14, 914 15, 142 15, 683 15, 794 15, 839 15, 911 15, 946 16, 013 16, 114 16, 163 16, 217 16, 256 16, 262 16, 294 16, 352 16, 393 16, 468 3, 225 3, 382 3, 564 3,688 3, 796 3, 927 3, 953 3,969 3, 981 3, 991 3, 995 4,014 4, 024 4,031 4,044 4, 049 4,048 4, 064 4, 077 4, 086 10, 099 10, 623 11, 229 11, 612 11, 869 12, 309 12, 403 12, 451 12, 497 12, 537 12, 621 12, 682 12, 716 12, 746 12, 776 12, 820 12, 828 12, 906 12, 996 13, 053 2,719 2,737 2,758 2,705 2, 664 2,650 2,633 2,639 2,644 2, 650 2, 634 2, 628 2, 631 2, 628 2, 641 2, 613 2, 603 2, 599 2, 609 2,608 8, 679 9, 109 9, 444 9, 830 10, 191 10, 640 10, 752 10, 767 10, 809 10, 852 10, 844 10, 905 10, 943 10, 986 11, 001 11, 046 11, 007 11,038 11, 062 11, 088 persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. Source: Department of Labor. 13. WEEKLY HOURS OF WORK - SELECTED INDUSTRIES The average workweek (seasonally adjusted) of private nonagricultural production workers declined by 0.2 hour tc 37.0 hours in October. The average workweek has fluctuated in the range 36.9 to 37.2 hours since November 1972 The small changes in hours in manufacturing, contract construction, and retail trade in October resulted in approximately the same hours of work as prevailed in August 1973. HOURS PER WEEK {SEASONALLY ADJUSTED} HOURS PER WEEK (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 46 461 MANUFACTURING TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL PRIVATE 44 42 40 38 36 34 1970 1971 1972 1970 1973 42 CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION 1971 1972 1973 RETAIL TRAE)E ^n oo oz 14 ***ff'M— *X^ •70 30 1970 1971 1972 •1 I ! f 1 I 11 ! ! ! ! 1970 1973 . i . , . I . . ! . 1. 1971 1 1 ! ! ! 1 ! 1 1 1 ! 1 1 I t 1 I ! ! 1 1 1K 1972 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF IABOR 1973 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 1 [Average hours per week ] Total nonagricultural private 2 Period Manufacturing 38. 7 38. 8 38.6 38. 0 37. 8 37. 7 37. 1 37.0 37. 2 37.4 37.3 37. 1 37.2 36. 6 36.8 36.9 36. 9 37.0 37.4 37. 6 37. 5 37. 3 37.0 40.7 41. 2 41. 3 40. 6 40. 7 40.6 39. 8 39.9 40.6 41.0 40.8 41.0 41.2 40. 0 40.6 40.8 40. 7 40.7 40.9 40. 5 40.5 41.0 40.7 Contract construction Unad justed 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 _ 1972: Sept Oct Nov.. Dec__ 1973: Jan Feb Mar Apr__ May June.. July Aug _ Sept* Oct ^ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _____ _ __ __ ___ *Data relate to production workers or nonsupervisory employees. includes other private industry groups shown on p. 13. Includes eating and drinking places. 2 Also 8 14 37. 2 37. 4 37. 6 37.7 37.4 37. 9 37.4 37. 3 37.0 38. 2 38.2 36.0 35. 2 34. 8 34. 9 36.6 36. 8 37. 5 38.1 38. 4 38. 3 38.0 37.9 Total nonagricultural private £ Retail trade 3 Contract construction Retail trade 3 Seasonally? adjusted i 37. 0 36.6 35. 9 35. 3 34.7 34. 2 33. 8 33. 7 33.6 33.6 33. 3 33.2 33.9 32. 9 32. 9 32. 9 33. 0 33.0 33.8 34. 3 34. 1 33.2 32.8 Manufacturing 37.3 37. 3 37.2 37. 0 36. 9 37. 2 37.1 37. 2 37.2 37. 1 37. 2 37. 0 37. 2 37,0 Source: Department of Labor. 40. 8 40. 7 40.8 40. 7 40. 3 41.0 40.9 40. 9 40. 7 40.6 40. 7 40.6 40.8 40.6 36. 9 37. 4 36.9 35.8 36. 1 36. 2 37.0 37.0 37.5 37. 4 37. 5 37. 1 36. 8 37.1 33. 6 33.5 33. 5 33. 6 S3. 4 33. 5 33. 4 33. 4 33. 4 33.5 33. 2 33. 0 33. 2 33.0 AVERAGE HOURLY AND WEEKLY EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES Average hourly earnings (not seasonally adjusted) of private nonfarm production workers increased by 1 cent in October to $3.99. This is an increase of 25 cents (6.7 percent) in the past year. Average weekly earnings declined In October by $0.82 (0.6 percent) to $147.63. This is an increase of $8.13 (5.8 percent) since October 1972. DOLLARS DOLLARS AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS 2ao 7.00 CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION 240 400 A/ CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION <s^ 200 5.0.0 MANUFACTURING 160 4,00 TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAl PRIVATE TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAl PRIVATE 120 3,00 _„,«—4 "T RETAfL TRADE RETAIL TRADE 2.0.0 80 1972 1974 1973 1971 1972 1973 .SOURCE- DIPAKTMENT OF IABOI 1974 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [For produetkm workers or nonsupervisory em ployees] Average h ourly earni ngs— curre nt dollars Average ^weekly earn ings— curr ent dollars Period Total nonagricultural private! Manufacturing Contract construction 1964 1965 . . 1967__ 1963 1969 1970. 1971__ __„___ ... .___ $2. 36 2.45 2. 56 2,68 2.85 3. 04 3. 22 $2.53 2. 61 2.72 2. 83 3. 01 3. 19 3. 36 3. 56 3. 81 3. 86 3. 86 3.89 3. 95 3,98 3. 97 3. 98 4. 01 4. 02 4. 04 4. 06 4. 06 4 13 4. 13 $3. 55 3. 70 3.89 4. 11 4. 41 4. 79 5. 24 5. 69 6.06 6. 15 6.22 6.23 6.32 6.42 6. 31 6.28 6. 31 6. 34 6. 35 6. 40 6. 46 6. 63 6. 66 Sept Oct Nov ..._ Dec _ _ _ _ Jan Feb- — — Mar.__ — _ Apr___.____ May...... __ _ Julv__ _ _ 1 Ana " Oct 9 a 43 3.65 3.72 3. 74 3.74 3. 74 3.77 3. 78 3. 80 3. 83 3. 85 3. 87 3.90 3. 91 3. 98 3. 99 1 Also includes other 2 8 Includes eating and Retail trade 2 $L75 1. 82 1.91 2. 01 2. 16 2.30 2. 44 2.57 2.70 2. 73 2.74 2.75 2.75 2. 78 2. 80 2, 81 2. 83 2. 84 2. 86 2. 86 2.87 2. 91 2. 92 private industry groups shown on p. 13. drinking places. time Adjusted to exclude the effects of overtin and interindustry shifts. 24-444°—73—•—3 Total nonagricultural private 1 Manufacturing $9L 33 95. 06 98. 82 101. 84 107. 73 114. 61 119. 46 126. 91 135. 78 139. 13 139. 50 138. 75 139. 13 137. 98 139. 10 140. 22 141. 33 142. 45 144. 74 146. 64 146. 63 148. 45 147. 63 97 107. 53 112. 34 114. 90 122. 51 129. 51 133. 73 142. 04 154. 69 158. 26 157. 49 159. 49 162. 74 159. 20 161. 18 162. 38 163. 21 163. 61 165. 24 164. 43 164. 43 1C9. 33 168. 09 Contract construction 06 138. 38 146. 26 154. 95 164. 93 181. 54 195. 98 212. 24 224. 22 234. 93 237. 60 224. 28 222. 46 223. 42 220. 22 229. 85 232. 21 237. 75 241. 94 245. 76 247. 42 251. 94 252. 41 j Retail trade 2 $64. 75 66.61 68. 57 70. 95 74. 95 78. 66 82. 47 86. 61 90.72 91. 73 91. 24 91. 30 93.23 91.46 92. 12 92. 45 93. 39 93. 72 96. 67 98. 10 97. 87 93. 61 95. 78 * Earnings in current dollars divided by Source: Department of Labor. Manufg icturing induvstries Adjusted Average weekly hourly earnearnings^ ingSj 1 f|£>'7 lybi — 1967 100s dollars 4 90. 3 84 92. 6 113. 79 95. 7 115. 58 100. 0 114. 90 106. 2 117. 57 112. 6 117. 95 119. 6 114. 99 127. 5 117. 10 135.4 123. 46 136. 7 125. 40 137. 0 124. 40 137. 7 '25. 68 139.2 127. 84 140. 1 124. 67 140. 1 • 25. 33 140. 7 125. 10 141.4 124. 87 142. G " 24. 42 142. 4 124. 80 143. 3 ' 23. 91 143. 9 121.71 145. 2 124. 97 1 145. 7 L23. 05 consumer price indes IIV 0,6 a dip In August. In the the groups/ in October groups^ the a rise of 0.5 rise to rise while In In of down. Index, 1967=100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED? index, 1967=100 {SEASONALLY ADJUSTED} 140 160 1973 1970 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISE2S SOUSCfc BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Total industrial production Period 1965_ 1967 1968 1970 1971 1972 1972: Sept Oct__ Nov_ Dec 1973: Jan Feb Mar Apr_ May _ June_July Aug Sept" Oct » [1967=100, seasonally adjusted] industry — Total 89.2 97.9 100. 0 105. 7 110. 7 106. 0 106. 8 115. 2 117. 6 119.2 120. 2 121. 1 122. 2 123. 4 123. 7 124. 1 124.9 125. 6 126. 7 126. 5 127. 1 127. 8 89. 1 98.3 100. 0 105, 7 110. 5 105.2 105.2 114. 0 117. 0 118.5 119. 5 120. 4 121. 4 122. 7 123. 4 123. 8 124. 9 125.6 126. 5 126. 5 126. 5 127. 1 M,Mnifacturi ^g NonDurable durable 88. 5 99. 0 100. 0 105. 5 110. 0 101.4 99.4 108.4 111. 6 113.8 115. 3 116. 3 117. 5 na 7 119.9 120. 6 121. 9 123.0 123. 8 123. 0 123. 5 124. 5 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 16 90. 0 97.3 100. 0 106. 0 111. 1 110. 6 113. 5 122, 1 124. 8 125. 2 125. 6 126. 2 127. 0 128.4 128. 6 128. 4 129.2 129. 3 130. 5 131.2 131.0 131. 1 iviarKet Firial produ BtS Mining Utilities Total 9a 9 98. 4 100. 0 103.9 107.2 109. 7 107. 0 108.8 110.8 110. 2 109. 7 108.2 108. 5 110.2 109. 5 109. 0 109. 1 109. 5 111. 0 112.3 112. 9 nar 86. 9 93. 6 100. 0 109. 4 119. 5 128. 3 133. 9 143.4 146.4 147. 1 148. 2 148. 5 151. 0 150. 5 149. 6 148. 7 149. 5 151. 6 154.8 154.8 155.8 157.6 86. 8 96. 1 100. 0 105. 8 109.0 104. 5 104.7 111. 9 113. 6 115. 3 116. 3 116. 8 118. 6 119. 3 119.6 120. 0 120. 8 121. 3 122. 1 121. 3 122. 0 123.6 Consumer goods Equipment 9a o 9a e 78. 7 93. 0 100.0 104.7 106. 1 96. 3 89.4 95.5 97.7 100.0 106. 6 111. 1 110. 3 115. 7 123. 6 125. 2 127. 0 127. 4 127. 7 129. 8 130.2 130. 8 130. 9 131. 7 131. 9 132.8 131. 1 131. 7 133.3 9a 9 100. 7 101. 5 102.9 104. 1 104. 1 104. 7 105. 7 106.6 107.3 107.7 108.5 110. 1 Intermediate products 93, 0 99.2 100. 0 105. 7 112. 0 111. 7 112. 5 121. 1 122. 8 1247 127. 6 127. 7 128. 4 129. 5 129. 4 129.3 130. 5 132. 0 132. 5 132. 2 130.6 131. 9 "R/r 4- rials 91. 0 99,8 100. 0 105.7 112. 4 107. 7 107.4 117. 4 120. 9 122. 3 122. 8 124 4 124 5 126. 7 127.0 127.7 i2a 3 129. 0 130. 9 131. 5 132.0 131.7 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED (seasonally in the chemicals, petroleum, the In by a decline in nonouroo,2Sj prinrirg; re her Index, 1967=100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 160 Index, 1967=100 {SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 140 140 ; CHEMICALSf PETROLEU Mr AND RUBBER I ^ / f _^BS38« 120 tin no TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT I I M II 100 I I I I ! t I I I I ! I1 DRAPER AND PRINTING \ \ ^^- ! 4#<*^ ^ ^ r ****~* *+t.+ *\ ^/--^ 1 I ! f f I 1 ?! !1 f I f 1 f.f I f F ! ! 1970 1971 i f ! r f 1r i1 i r f f ? ?f I f 1 f f ! j 1973 1972 110 300 1970 1973 1970 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC-ADVISERS [1967=100, seasonally adjusted] Durat le manuff:ictures Ncendurable manufactu res FabriTranspor- Lumber Textiles, Paper Primary cated Machin- tation and and apparel. metals ery metal prodand equipprintproducts ment ing leather ucts Period 1965 Chemicals, Foods petroleum j and tobacco rubber 104. 0 108. 8 100. 0 103. 2 114. 1 106. 9 100. 9 na i 1969 1970 1971 1972 Sept Oct No v Dec Peb Apr Mav ___ _ Julv - _9 -_ Oct » of of the 84. 1 98. 6 100. 0 101. 9 106. 8 100. 3 96. 2 107. 5 91. 3 101. 2 100. 0 109.7 107. 6 90.4 92. 9 99. 0 94 7 98. 4 100. 0 104. 8 108. 6 106. 3 113. 9 122. 4 97.8 101. 7 100. 0 104. 9 105. 9 100. 2 100. 7 108. 1 90.5 98. 9 100. 0 104 2 109. 1 107.8 107. 8 116. 1 83. 8 94 1 100. 0 109. 6 118. 4 118. 2 124 7 137. 8 92. 6 97. 0 100. 0 103. 6 107. 5 110.8 113. 7 117. 6 119. 7 122. 1 122. 9 125.4 1967 92. 6 100. 5 100. 0 106. 3 113. 6 109. 4 107. 4 114. 8 118. 0 120. 4122.2 122. 3 111. 8 114. 0 115. 7 116. 8 99. 5 102. 7 105. 0 106. 6 123. 127. 126. 122. 6 3 8 7 111. 2 112. 1 113. 0 113. 2 117. 7 119. 9 120. 0 120. 3 142. 2 141. 6 142. 0 143. 8 _L ^S. 5 ' ", o r. IIS. c 123. 1 124 7 123. 5 125. 8 126. i 124 5 128. I 127. 3 129. 5 130. 2 125. 7 126. 2 128. 4 128. 9 130. 3 133. 4 133. 5 133. 9 130. 5 ISO, 0 118. 4 119. 1 121. 4 122. 6 124. 7 126. 9 127.6 128. 5 129. 5 130. 9 107. 6 110. 0 110. 3 110. 0 111. 0 112. 2 112, 1 105. 8 107. 9 109. 2 125. 8 128. 5 129. 5 129. I 127. 5 126. 8 125. 4 128.4 130. 0 113. 4. 114. 4 114. 6 114. 0 113. 3 1 15. 0 114. 5 115. 2 116. 9 117. 0 120. 0 121. 5 122. 4 120. 8 121. 9 122. 8 123. 8 125. 3 124. 5 124. 0 145. 5 146. 3 146. 3 147. 9 150. 2 149. 8 151.8 152. 0 150.8 151. 5 ' System.. •7-7 A i icx 5 T -72 r« T 2^, 5 7 29, 7 1 21, .3 "1C " 1 ii "• . 3 121. o ; 21. 9 \'2\ 6 WEEKLY INDICATORS OF PRODUCTION Most weekly indicators of production, particularly cars and trucks assembled, increased in October, MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS 16 MILLIONS OF TONS STEEL •^^'% 1972 1971 1 /J i i I i t i I I t i i 1 I t i I i 1 i I M t I I M I I/ M I i t M I M M* 1 M I M t yJ J F M A M J J A S O N 6 fy M I M I I I t M 1 M I I M I I M MJJ M 1 M t I t M Ml t M I MM I M I y> D OF KILOWATT HOURS J F M A M J J A S O N D THOUSANDS 501 300 200 100 20 Ml 1 1 1 l i t , ] ! ;,!,J , { , | . ; , ! I ! M I Ll I j j j j J_l_l 1 I I M 1 l,,| M I I t ! t I ! I I .1 J F M A M J J A S O N D 0 LlJ I I M. » I t m I I M I ! M i M M I M i l I tJ-IJ^jJLaJjJ-t-LjJj-U l J F M A M J J SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, iDlSON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, AND WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS Steel piroduced Thousands Index (1967= of net tons 100) Period Weekly average: 1966 1969... 1970___ 1971.. v 1972: Sept ___ Oct Nov Dec. Jan Feb Mar Apr ___ May June_ July Aug _ Sept Oct " Week ended: Oct 6_ 13__ 20 27 _ Nov 3 _ 10. 17. 1 Includes 2 data for Alaska Not charted. 18 _ 2,572 2, 440 2,515 2 ? 709 2,522 2,310 2,549 2,550 2, 631 2,657 2, 687 2,793 2,906 2, 954 2,981 2,974 2,911 2, 781 2, 750 2, 857 2,896 2, 890 2, 882 2, 915 2, 915 2, 929 2,932 2 2, 907 105.4 100.0 103. 1 111. 0 103.4 94. 7 104.5 104.5 107.9 108.9 110. 2 1145 119. 1 121. 1 122. 2 121.9 119. 3 1140 112. 7 117. 1 118. 7 118. 5 118. 1 119. 5 119. 5 120. 1 120. 2 119. 2 A S O N D COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Electric Bituminous Freight Paperboarc Car s and triicks power coal ruined loaded produced distributed (thousands (thousands (thousands assembled (thoiisands) of short (millions of of cars) of tons) Total Cars Trucks kilowatt-hours) tons) l 21, 971 23, 169 25, 244 27, 588 29, 317 30, 923 33, 540 34, 360 32, 547 33, 674 35, 264 35, 861 35, 800 33, 643 33, 164 33,543 38, 061 39, 417 39, 783 367 572 34, 762 10, 267 10, 627 10, 485 10, 779 11, 595 10, 619 11, 346 11, 625 11, 721 11,211 9, 964 10, 598 11, 059 11, 116 10, 945 11,493 10, 498 9,621 12, 090 12, 054 12, 175 570 540 543 543 522 486 501 527 553 524 471 491 509 515 518 543 545 504 543 543 564 446 439 479 507 489 501 548 529 576 564 498 512 583 593 584 589 583 518 591 548 589 199.3 172.9 207.6 195.8 158. 9 2048 217. 2 226. 8 257. 6 257. 1 202. 5 261. 3 277. 6 276. 1 262. 0 269.9 280. 1 216. 6 151. 5 234 3 269. 2 165. 4 142. 4 170.1 158. 1 125. 9 165. 0 169.6 180. 9 203. 1 200. 9 157. 7 201. 5 213. 3 212. 1 200.8 207.3 216.7 164 4 106. 5 179. 0 208.8 59. 8 64 3 64 1 61.2 62. 6 63.3 52. 2 45.0 55. 3 60. 5 35, 505 35, 318 34, 236 33, 998 34, 752 35, 780 12, 150 12, 250 12, 200 ! 12, 280 11, 995 2 12, 395 558 558 569 564 571 558 570 595 588 589 605 2644 256.4 278. 4 268. 6 278. 4 273. 7 265.8 204 194 214 211. 219. 210. 208. 60. 2 61. 5 64 4 57. 4 58.8 63.3 57.2 2 9 0 3 7 4 6 33.9 30. 5 37.5 37.8 33.0 39. 8 47.5 45. 9 545 56. 3 447 NEW CONSTRUCTION According to preliminary estimates^ expenditures for new construction (seasonally adjusted) declined 2 September. Both public and private construction contributed to the decline. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 160 In BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 160 ALL OTHER PRIVATE •••.••M......!.!."""""""1"1 20 1967 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Total new construction expenditures Period 1967 77.5 86. 6 93.4 94. 2 109. 2 123. 8 1969 1970 1971 1972___ COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total 52. 0 59. 0 65. 4 66. 1 79.4 93.6 Resic ential CommerNew cial Other housing industrial Total i units Bi llions of doll .ars 19. 0 25.6 2€ '. 4 24. 0 30.6 13. 8 14 7 33.2 25. 9 16. 2 16. 0 24. 3 16. 3 17. 9 31. 9 19. 1 17.0 43. 3 35. 1 21,3 54.2 18.1 44.7 Federal, State, and local Constructio]Q contracts 2 CommerTotal value cial and index, industrial (1967= floor space 100) (millions of square feet) 100. 0 113. 2 123. 7 123. 1 145. 4 165.3 25. 5 27. 6 28. 0 28. 1 29.9 30.2 Seasonally adjusted Seasonally j adjusted ai inual rates \ 1972: July Oct Nov Dec 1973: Jan Feb Mar.. Apr May JuneJuly- _ _ Aug yy_ _ 121. 6 123.0 125. 1 128. 5 126. 8 131. 6 135. 5 136. 1 138.0 135. 5 136. 5 135. 9 138. 4 138. 1 134. 9 92.4 93. 9 94. 5 96. 2 97. 5 98. 5 101. 8 103. 9 104. 3 103.0 104. 1 104. 9 106. 9 107.0 104. 2 53. 8 54. 5 55. 5 56. 4 57.2 57. 5 59. 1 61. 2 61. 2 59. 9 59. 8 60. 1 60. 2 60. 0 58. 7 44. 1 44. 7 45. 9 46. 9 47. 8 48. 0 48. 1 49. 4 49. 6 48. 9 49. 2 49. 5 49. 5 49. 2 48. 0 17.8 18. 1 18. 0 18. 1 18. 2 18. 6 20. 3 20. 1 20. 6 20. 8 21. 5 21. 6 22. 5 22. 5 21. 4 20.8 21.3 21. 0 21. 8 22. 1 22. 3 22. 4 22. 6 22. 5 22. 3 22. 8 23. 2 24. 3 24. 5 24, 1 29.2 29. 2 30. 6 32. 3 29. 3 33. 1 33. 7 32. 3 33. 6 32. 6 32. 3 31. 0 31. 5 31. 1 30.8 155 694 779 883 743 727 858 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 813 908 896 895 992 946 180 187 171 177 163 181 191 193 177 1, 031 1,037 1,012 1, 006 183 177 206 182 1,014 1, 196 1, 155 1,025 1 /o 915 Sources: Department of Commerce and McGraw-Hill Information System; Company, F. W. Dodge Division. 19 8% in October below 2 In October to an in a row. for for the of 18 MILLIONS OF UNITS 3,0 MILLIONS Of TOTAL PRIVATE HOUSING STARTS 1967 1968 1 1969 1970 1972 1971 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF HOUSfNG AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT, AND VETERANS ADMINISTRATION i Total I private Total private and public (includ! (including ing farm) farm) Period 1967.-.196S_ 1969 1971. _ . 1, 1, 321. 9 291. 6 -.1,545.4 1, 507. 6 1,499.5 1, 466. 8 __ 1,469.0 1, 433. 6 2, 084. 5 2, 052. 2 12,378.5 2, 356. 6 . Oct __ _ _ __ __ _ Nov .1 Dec __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ Peb___ _ Apr _ _ June___ _ July... __ Aug___ „ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ * Oct" _._| 1 2 218. 2 187. 1 152. 7 139. 5 201. 1 205. 4 234. 2 199. 9 145. 7 203. 0 216.5 185.7 150. 5 146.6 138. 0 200. 0 205. 0 234.0 202. 6 202. 6 197.2 145. 2 144. 3 jThoiisands o " units] Hou sing star ts Private Total (including5 farm) One unit Prop ossd home constriiction 3 1 New Gover nment home p rograms (non; "arm) Two or more FHAi VA units 52. 5 1, 291. 6 843.9 447. 7 141. 9 147. 7 56. 1 1, 507. 6 899.4 608. 2 1, 466. 8 810. 6 656. 2 153. 6 51. 2 1, 433. 6 812. 9 620. 7 233. 5 61. 0 2, 052. 2 1, 151. 0 901. 2 301. 2 94. 0 2, 356. 6 1, 309. 21, 047. 5 198. 4 104. 0 Seasona lly ad jus ted al 1,045 2, 426 1, 382 175 106 2,446 1, 315 1, 131 149 98 1,071 92 2 ? 395 1, 324 125 2, 369 1, 207 1, 162 106 86 1,047 87 2,497 1,450 96 111 1, 084 2, 456 1, 372 105 92 2,260 1, 245 1,015 101 921 74 2, 123 1. 202 100 1, 142 A, 971 81 111 2,413 1 A t 1 1, 004 80 2, 128 1. 124 88 944 80 2, 191 1. 247 87 969 69 2, 094 1, 125 91 784 68 977 71 1, 761 62 1 945 668 1, 613 Total 1973 private housing units authorized 2 Applica- Requests tions for for VA FHA commit- appraisals ments 1 1, 141. 0 1, 353. 4 1, 323. 7 1, 351. 5 1, 924. 6 2, 218. 9 rates 2, 366 2, 318 2, 226 2,399 2,233 2, 209 2, 129 1,939 1, 838 2, 030 1, 780 1, 750 1,596 1, 310 a Units ap plications or ap Units are for 1- to 4-family housing. by n by issuance of local building per mit: in 14,00 0 permit-issiling fa 01ne construct!on. and 10 S000 prior to 1963. 13,000 for 1967-71; 12,000 for 1 g otirees: Dep of Commerce , Deoartment of De velopment, a ad Veterans Administr ation. 20 167. 2 168. 9 187. 6 315. C 366. 8 225. 2 124. 3 131.7 138.2 143. 7 '"17 Q 209. 4 166 147 162 131 124 100 93 68 89 103 93 70 94 192 189 207 194 222 217 201 169 161 166 135 143 133 141 for INVENTORIES—TOTAL AND TRADE trade $1.5 (seasonally of $1.9 billion In August and $1,6 billion In July, Combined reports for retailers a rise In October* OF DOLLARS ISEASONALLY ADJUSTED) to BILLIONS OF DOLLARS In an In September, ISEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 240 | (ENLARGED SCALE) 30 h-DURABLE GOODS STORES 220 | TOTAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES 200 160 TOTAL BUSINESS SALES 140 120 100 80 30 RETAIL INVENTORIES 60 25 20 1971 1972 1973 1974 1971 1974 SOURC& DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE CGUNOl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total Imsiness l Re3tail Wholesale Sales2 Period 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970__ 1971 1972 1972: Aug Sept Oct Nov. Dec 1973: Jan Feb Mar Apr Mav June__ July Aug.. Sept » Oct 9 Sales 2 80, 276 87, 178 89, 698 97, 100 103, 104 104, 708 112, 267 124, 680 126, 792 127, 656 130, 336 131, 918 133, 483 136, 863 138, 910 141, 010 141, 274 142, 694 __ _ 142, 323 146, 469 _ 146, 076 146, 042 Inventories 3 Sales2 120, 900 136, 729 145, 164 155, 376 166, 813 174, 875 183, 622 194, 151 189, 093 190, 486 191, 583 192, 921 194, 151 196, 295 198, 172 199, 525 200, 787 202, 896 205, 252 206, 813 208, 668 210, 211 15, 595 16, 979 17, 099 18, 329 19, 726 20, 554 22, 280 24, 850 25, 137 25, 407 25, 779 26, 212 26, 962 27, 755 28, 423 29, 312 29, 621 29, 675 29, 528 30, 443 30, 692 30, 508 1 The term '"business" also includes manufacturing 2 Monthly average for year and total for month. 8 Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. (see page 22). Inventories 3 JMillions of 18, 274 20, 691 21, 557 22, 528 24, 363 26, 604 28, 916 31, 732 30, 164 30, 657 31, 032 31, 289 31, 732 32, 582 33, 051 33, 245 33, 574 33, 986 34, 148 34, 653 34, 964 35, 286 NonDurable durable goods Total goods stores stores dollars, seasonally a djusted 23, 677 7,849 15, 828 34,405 8, 192 17, 138 38, 073 25, 330 26, 151 8,348 17, 803 38, 952 9, 268 19, 222 41, 973 28, 490 29, 824 9,626 20, 197 45, 376 9, 524 21, 770 46, 626 31, 294 34, 071 10, 985 23, 086 52, 261 37, 365 12, 472 24, 893 54, 700 37, 969 12, 842 25, 127 53, 107 37, 746 12, 614 25, 132 53, 661 39, 106 13, 168 25, 938 53, 934 38, 713 13, 173 25, 540 54, 658 39, 417 13, 640 25, 777 54, 700 40, 707 14, 234 26, 473 55, 526 41, 242 14, 405 26, 837 56, 039 41, 979 14, 612 27, 367 56, 106 41, 185 14, 339 26, 846 56, 636 41, 735 14, 299 27, 436 57, 285 41, 179 13, 731 27, 448 58, 079 42, 778 14, 409 28, 369 58, 250 42, 363 14, 481 27, 882 58, 797 427 474 14, 200 28, 274 58, 811 43, 351 14, 504 28, 847 Total Inventories Durable goods stores 15, 253 17, 258 17, 277 19, 167 20, 647 20, 345 23, 808 24, 442 23, 037 23, 608 23, 675 24, 235 24, 442 24, 472 24, 638 24, 538 24, 624 25, 094 25, 454 25, 797 25, 850 25, 790 3 Nondurable goods stores 19, 152 20, 815 21, 675 22, 806 24, 729 26, 281 28, 453 30, 258 30, 070 30, 053 30, 259 30, 423 30, 258 31, 054 31, 401 31, 568 32, 012 32, 191 32, 625 32, 453 32, 947 33, 021 Source: Department of Commerce. 21 New orders of durable goods manufacturers rose 2.8 percent, seasonally adjusted/ In October after a decline the summer months. October shipments were also up 2.8 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS [SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) BILUONS OF DOLLARS {SEASONALLY AKJUSTEDJ INVENTORIES 120 TOTAL 100 DURABLE GOODS 80 NONDURABLE GOODS I I I ! I I I I 1 1 I I II ! 1 I I II 1 I 40 T NONDURABLE GOODS 20 RATIO 2.00 i l I i I i i i i i I t ! f r• r I i .t_t_i ? ff,.?,„LI t - t t-.-LJ.-' INVENTORY-SHtPMENTS RATIO 40 1974 1971 1971 1974 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufac turers* sh ipments1 1 Manufac turers5 krv entories2 j Ma nufaeture rs? new ordc;rs l . 1 Total NonDurable durable goods goods NonTotal I Durable durable goods goods )le goods NonCapital durable goods Total industries, goods nondefense Total Manufacturers' inventoryshipments 3 Millions of dollars, seasonal y ad justed 1967 1968 1970___ Aug_ _ Oct.. Nov Dec Feb Mar Ar..„ p.. July __ _ _ * Oct *__ 1 44, 869 46, 449 50, 282 53, 555 52, 860 55, 917 62, 466 63, 686 64, 503 65? 451 66, 993 67, 104 68, 401 6% 245 69, 719 70, 468 71, 284 71, 616 73, 248 73, 021 73, 060 24, 633 20, 236 77, 965 49, 818 25, 212 21, 236 84, 655 54, 931 27, 694 22, 588 90, 875 59, 112 29, 459 24, 096 97, 074 63, 371 28, 231 24, 629 101, 645 66, 768 29, 948 25, 969 102, 445 66, 050 33, 892 28, 573 107, 719 70, 218 34, 687 28, 999 105, 822 68, 568 35, 249 29, 254 106, 168 68, 875 36, 302 29, 149 106, 617 69, 308 36, 870 30, 123 106, 974 69, 613 36, 614 30, 490 107, 719 70, 218 37, 773 30, 628 108, 187 70, 590 38. 122 31, 123 109, 082 71, 136 38, 064 31, 655 110, 174 71, 873 387 651 31, 817 110, 577 72, 213 39, 284 32, 000 111, 625 72, 867 39, 257 32, 359 113, 025 73, 801 40, 779 323 469 113, 810 74 278 39, 633 33, 388 114, 907 72, 513 40, 162 32, 898 116, 114 76, 249 41, 302 1 Monthly for year and total for month. s Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. 2 3Por annual periods, ratio of weighted average to 28, 147 29, 724 31, 763 33, 703 34, 877 36, 395 37, 501 37, 254 37, 293 37? 309 37, 361 37, 501 37, 597 37, 946 38, 301 38, 364 38, 758 39? 224 39, 632 39, 694 39, 865 45, 944 46, 763 50, 243 53, 646 52, 063 55, 732 63, 514 64, 809 66, 620 66, 355 67, 726 68, 908 70, 016 71, 022 72, 806 73, 325 74, 535 75, 361 75, 145 76, 113 75, 129 25, 720 25, 526 27, 666 29, 549 27, 431 29, 751 34, 867 35, 772 37, 292 37, 127 37, 462 38, 325 39, 218 39, 765 41, 021 41, 341 42, 449 43, 016 42, 697 42, 689 42, 259 43, 427 20, 224 21, 238 6,971 22, 577 7,694 24, 097 7, 021 24, 632 7,339 25, 981 8, 983 28, 648 8, 899 29, 037 9, 727 29, 328 9,625 29, 228 9, 699 30, 264 9, 991 30, 583 10, 277 30, 798 10, 105 31, 257 10, 572 31, 785 10, 619 31, 984 10, 919 32, 086 11, 415 32, 345 11, 404 32, 448 11. 032 33, 424 j 11, 267 32, 870 11, 322 shipments; for monthly data, of inventories at end of month to for month. Source: Department of Commerce. 1, 62 1. 76 1. 74 1. 76 189 1. 82 1. 67 1. 66 1. 65 1. 63 1. 60 1. 61 1. 58 1. 58 1. 58 1. 57 1. 57 1. 58 1. 56 1. 57 1. 59 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS The U.S. merchandise trade balance on a seasonally adjusted basis jumped from a deficit of $17 million in August to a surplus of $873 million in September. This large shift was equally the result of an increase in exports and a decline of imports. While a shift of this magnitude was unusual, it was a dramatic indication of the trend toward a net surplus in U.S. trade. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1967 ]/$EE NOTE BELOW. SOURCE.- DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] B^lerehandise expor jS Period Total (including ree xports) l Season- Unadally ad- justed justed Monthly average: 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 197] 1972 Domesti e exports Food, Crude bever- mate- ManuTotal i 2 ages, facrials and to- and tured goods bacco fuels 2,229 2,458 2,586 2, 839 3, 111 3, 555 3,629 4, 102 2, 201 2,421 2, 554 2,802 3,066 3, 502 3,576 4,035 3,934 3, 963 4,441 4,583 4,691 4, 747 4,864 5, 923 5, 561 6,023 5,858 5, 322 5, 779 5, 959 3,864 3,893 4,380 4,497 4,617 4, 678 4,795 5,826 5,456 5, 927 5, 755 5,240 5, 675 5, 880 377 432 392 383 370 422 423 547 356 367 394 405 417 558 537 591 1, 453 1, 602 1,737 1, 985 2,232 2,445 2,537 2, 813 549 478 672 761 730 736 815 2, 709 2, 745 3,007 2,927 3,040 3, 114 3, 140 3,829 3,583 3,943 3,726 3, 384 3, 522 3,811 Merch andise iinports Gen<3ral impc>rts 3 2 Food, Crude Total bever- mateSeasonrials ages, ally ad- Unad- and to- and justed justed bacco fuels 1,786 2, 135 2, 241 2, 769 3,004 3, 329 3,797 4, 632 4,197 4,176 4,316 4,4^3 4,558 4,977 5,065 5,380 5,487 5, 603 5, 778 5, 869 6, 004 6,448 536 594 636 711 749 752 744 881 843 903 1,023 974 1, 285 1,284 1,023 898 975 873 755 773 694 1 Total excludes Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program. 2 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. 453 476 447 503 533 545 606 737 937 1, 204 1, 313 1, 719 1,918 2, 159 2,535 3, 147 444 323 345 70 107 226 -168 -530 Unad, usted Uinad juste i 1972: Aug Sept. _ _ _ Oct Nov__ Dec 1973: Jan Feb Mar__ Apr May June July Aug___ _ Sept 334 382 392 447 442 519 534 615 Grossmerchandise trade Manu- surplus, seasonfactured ally adjusted goods 4,726 4,612 4,738 5,148 5,002 5,281 5,641 5, 432 5,291 5, 761 5, 794 5,762 6,021 5,575 4,727 4,491 5,009 5,201 4,796 5, 423 4,945 5, 5, 6, 5, 596 347 032 901 5,652 5, 997 5,286 632 628 692 662 639 726 645 714 757 835 724 693 788 707 728 756 775 810 822 930 853 994 914 1,070 1, 077 1,005 1,209 1, 103 3,232 2,976 3, 394 3,585 3, 190 3,604 3,318 3,737 3, 535 3, 996 3, 938 3,800 3, 845 3,332 -530 -436 -421 -675 -444 -304 -476 -53 196 -158 -16 106 -17 873 NOTE.—Data adjusted to include silver ore and bullion reported separately prior to 1969. U.S. BALANCES ON GOODS, SERVICES, AND TRANSFERS The surplus on goods and services rose from $0.6 billion in the second quarter to $1.8 billion in the third quarter, on a seasonally adjusted basis. This is the fifth quarter in a row that the balance on goods and services has improved. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -3 1973 1967 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCEi DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars] M erchandis<3 l 2 Period Exports 1967 1968 1969 1970__ 1971. 1972 30, 666 33, 626 36, 400 41, 964 42, 768 48, 769 Imports Net balance Net iiivestment income Milit*iry trans actions Direct expenditures Sales -26, 866 3,800 -4, 378 1, 240 -32,991 635 -4, 535 1, 392 -35,807 593 -4, 856 1, 512 -39, 788 2, 176 — 4, 852 1,478 — 45, 466 -2,698 -4, 829 1, 912 -55, 681 -6,912 -4, 724 1, 166 Net balance Private 3 -3, 138 -3, 143 -3,344 -3, 374 -2, 918 -3, 558 U.S. Government Kemittances, Balpenance sions, on and curother rent uniaclateral count transfers 1 5, 132 -3,081 2, 051 2,465 -2,909 -443 1,891 -2, 941 — 1, 050 3, 630 -3,214 416 807 -3, 598 -2, 790 -4,610 -3, 744 -8, 353 Net Baltravel and Other ance on trans- serv- goods portaices, and tion net servexpendices 1 4 itures 5,848 40 -1, 751 6, 157 63 — 1, 548 5,820 155 - 1, 782 6, 374 — 115 -2, 013 8,929 -957 -2,288 9, 751 - 1, 889— 2, 853 335 302 449 581 739 851 Seasonalh7 adjusted 1972: 1 11, 655 -13,475 - 1, 820 1, 222 I . . 11, 539 — 13, 313 I.. -1,774 - 1, 242 I I . 12, 362 -13,935 — 1, 573— 1, 108 I.. I . . 13, 213 - 14, 958 1, 745— 1, 151 V.. — 1973: I 15, 320 -16,280 -960 — 1, 168 I. I . 16, 747 -16, 977 -230 -1, 184 Ill ».. 18, 220 -17,437 783 1 Excludes 2 Adjusted s 328 288 262 287 -894 -954 -846 -864 2,290 2, 252 2, 447 2, 763 -399 -461 -497 -531 -755 -691 -679 -730 343 457 -825 -727 2, 954 2,871 -645 -800 -608 -742 military grants. from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. Includes fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct, Investments in the United States. 24 204 1,374 202 - 1, 426 209 -939 237 -870 234 150 244 616 1,800 -2, 343 -2, 364 — 1, 893 -1, 751 -742 -592 -314 -930 -969 -938 -954 -881 4 Equal to net exports of goods and services in the national income and product accounts of the United States when converted to an annual rates basis. Source: Department of Commerce. U.S. OVERALL BALANCES ON INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS The U.S. balance of payments on an official reserve transactions basis was in surplus by $2.1 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis in the third quarter. This surplus reflects fairly large-scale intervention by the Bank of Japan as well as central banks in Europe to slow the decline of their currencies relative to the dollar. In comparison, the U.S. balance of payments on a net liquidity basis was in surplus by only $1.1 billion, indicating an increase in net foreign private holdings of dollars. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 5 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 5 BALANCE ON CURRENT ACCOUNT AND LONG-TERM CAPITAL OFFICIAL RESERVE TRANSACTIONS BALANCE -15 -15 1973 1967 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADV1SS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars] NonLong-ter m capital Balance liquid on flows net 3, current shortterm account private U.S. and long- capital Govern- Private 2 term flows capital ment 1 net 2 Period 1967 1969 1970 1971 1972 -2, 423 -2, 932 -3,304 _ -2, 158 1, 191 -1,411 -1,926 -70 -3,046 -522 231 -640 -2, 018 -1,429 -3,031 -482 -2, 359 -4,401 -9, 550 -2, 347 _ — 1, 339 -152 -9,843 -1,637 Allocations of special drawing rights Errors and omissions, net _Net liquidity balance Liquid private capital flows, net 2 Official reserve transactions balance Changes in liabilities to foreign official agencies, net 3 Changes in U.S. official reserve assets, net 4 -857 -4, 683 52 1,265 3,418 3, 366 -431 -1,611 1,641 3, 252 -880 -761 -2, 395 -6, 081 8, 820 2,739 - 1, 552 -1, 187 867 — 1, 205 -3, 851 -5, 988 -9, 839 7, 362 2,477 717 - 10, 784-21, 965 -7, 788 -29,753 27, 405 2,348 710 -3, 112 -13, 882 3, 542 -10, 340 32 10, 308 IV. _ _ 1973: I* II*— III*. 1 2 -289 - 1, 143 -3, 775 -535 604 -1,855 -95 310 -393 -2, 652 -430 -366 -586 781 -1,556 -982 -19 -336 -947 - 1, 793 -562 94 -782 -1,054 178 944 -3, 188 178 -940 -2, 307 177 -1,626 -4, 531 177 -1,490 -3, 851 -3, 921 6,689 229 -1, 549 Excludes liabilities to foreign official reserve agencies. Private foreigners exclude the IMF, but include other international and regional organizations. a Includes liabilities to foreign official agencies reported by U.S. Government land U.S. banks and U.S. liabilities to the IMF arising from reversible gold sales 'to, and gold deposits with, the United States. 4 Official reserve assets include gold, special drawing rights, convertible currencies, and the U.S. gold tranche position in the IMF. 8 Includes gain of $67 million resulting from revaluation of the German mark In October 1969. 1, 057 14, 15, 16, 14, 6 12, 13, 5 830 710 964 487 167 151 Unadjusted Sea sonally ac justed 1972:1 II III— U.S. official reserve assets, net (end of period) 3, 047 -288 -3,476 1,456 -851 1, 082 7 -4, 524 4, 579 1, 595 2, 367 - 1, 484 3,810 -10, 499 10, 279 -373 1, 905 356 2, 146 -2, 133 1, 089 429 12, -231 7 13, -55 13, -111 13, 8 220 8 12, 17 12, -13 s 12, 270 339 217 151 931 914 927 6 Includes $28 million increase in dollar value of foreign currencies revalued to reflect market exchange rates as of Dec. 31,1971. 7 Includes increase of $1,016 million resulting from change in par value of the U.S. dollar on May 8. 8 Dollar equivalents not revalued to reflect de facto conversion rates. * Overall balances revised; detail to be revised in December. Sources: Department of Commerce and Treasury Department. 25 PRICES CONSUMER PRICES In October, the consumer price index rose 0.8 percent (also 0.8 percent seasonally adjusted). Food prices were up 0.1 percent (0.5 percent seasonally adjusted) while nonfood commodity prices increased 0.9 percent (0.5 percent seasonally adjusted.) Services prices rose 1,1 percent, almost half of which was due to an increase in mortgage interest costs. Index, 1967 = 1.00 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LA&OR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967 = 100] Period 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 ___ 1970_ 1971 1972 1972: Sept __ Oct___ Nov Dec__ 1973: Jan Feb Mar Apr May _ June July Aug Sept Oct ___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Source: Department of Labor. 26 All items 92. 9 94. 5 97.2 100. 0 104. 2 109. 8 116. 3 121. 3 125. 3 126. 2 126.6 126. 9 127. 3 127. 7 128. 6 129. 8 130. 7 131. 5 132. 4 132. 7 135. 1 135.5 136.6 All commodities 94.6 95.7 98.2 100. 0 103. 7 108.4 113. 5 117. 4 120. 9 122. 0 122.3 122. 7 122. 9 123.4 124.5 126. 1 127.4 128. 3 129. 4 129.7 132.8 132. 8 133.5 Services Co mmoditie 3 Comm odities leg>s food Services All Food Rent less NonAll Durable durable services rent 92. 4 94. 4 99. 1 100. 0 103. 6 108. 9 114. 9 118. 4 123. 5 124.8 124. 9 125.4 126. 0 128. 6 131. 1 134. 5 136.5 137. 9 139. 8 140. 9 149. 4 148. 3 148. 4 95. 6 96. 2 97.5 100. 0 103. 7 108. 1 112. 5 116. 8 119. 4 120. 3 120.8 121. 0 121. 1 120. 5 120.9 121. 5 122. 3 123.0 123. 7 123. 5 123.8 124. 3 125.4 98.8 98.4 98. 5 100. 0 103. 1 107. 0 111. 8 116. 5 118. 9 119.8 120. 1 120. 3 120. 3 119. 9 119. 9 120. 2 121.0 121.8 122. 3 122.4 122. 6 122.6 123. 2 93. 5 94. 8 97. 0 100. 0 104. 1 108. 8 113. 1 117.0 119. 8 120.8 121.3 121.7 121. 7 120. 9 121. 6 122.4 123.3 124.0 124. 7 124.4 124. 7 125,5 127.0 90.2 92. 2 95.8 100. 0 105. 2 112. 5 121. 6 128.4 133. 3 134. 1 134.6 134.9 135.4 135.7 136.2 136.6 137.1 137.6 138. 1 138.4 139.3 140.6 142.2 95. 9 96. 9 98. 2 100.0 102. 4 105. 7 110. 1 115. 2 119.2 119. 9 120. 3 120. 5 121. 0 121. 8 122. 3 122.8 123. 2 123. 7 124.0 124. 4 125. 0 125.4 125.9 89.2 91. 5 95.3 100.0 105. 7 113. 8 123. 7 130.8 135. 9 136. 7 137. 2 137. 6 138. 0 138. 3 138.7 139. 2 139.6 140. 1 140. 7 141.0 141.9 143. 4 145. 2 WHOLESALE PRICES The wholesale price index declined 0.5 percent in October (0.3 percent after adjustment for seasonal factors). The decrease was due to prices of farm products and processed foods and feeds, which fell 3.9 percent (3.3 percent seasonally adjusted). Industrial commodity prices were up 1.2 percent (1.1 percent seasonally adjusted). Index, 1967 =100 Index, 1967-100 200 200 180 180 160 160 140 140 FARM PRODUCTS AND PROCESSED FOODS AND FEEDS 120 120 100 100 1974 1968 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF IABOS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS All commodities Period 1964 1965 196G 1967 _ 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1972: Sept __ . Oct Nov Dec 1973: Jan Feb Mar Apr^ Mav June Julv Aup SeptOct___ 1 . __ _ _ _ _ _ 94.7 96. 6 99. 8 100. 0 102. 5 106. 5 110. 4 113. 9 119. 1 120. 2 120. 0 120. 7 122. 9 124. 5 126. 9 129.7 130. 7 133. 5 136. 7 134. 9 142. 7 140. 2 139. 5 [1967-100] Farni products3 and _ processe d foods a nd feeds ProcAll inFarm essed dustriTotal prodfoods als1 and ucts feeds 95. 2 94. 6 92. 3 93. 2 96. 4 97. 1 98. 7 95. 5 98.5 105. 9 103. 5 101.2 100. 0 100. 0 100. 0 100. 0 102. 5 102. 5 102. 4 102. 2 108.0 109. 1 106. 0 107.3 111. 6 111. 0 112. 0 110. 0 112. 9 114. 0 114. 3 113.8 122.4 125. 0 117. 9 120. 8 124. 5 118. 7 128. 6 121. 8 123. 3 118. 8 125. 5 121. 8 125. 3 128. 8 119. 1 123. 1 132. 6 119. 4 137. 5 129. 4 137. 0 144. 2 132.4 120. 0 142. 4 121. 3 150. 9 137. 0 160.9 149. 0 141. 4 122.7 147. 9 160. 6 124. 4 139. 8 154. 9 170. 4 145. 0 125. 8 163. 6 182. 3 126. 9 151. 8 173. 3 156. 9 146. 5 126. 9 184. 5 213. 3 166. 2 127. 4 200. 4 173. 5 156.3 128. 1 188. 4 129. 6 153. 1 166. 8 Coverage of the subgroups does nc)t corresrom1 exactly to coverage of this Index. 2 Excludes crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs, plant ai id animal fib ers, oilseeds, lild leaf tobacco. II idustrial Crude materials 2 97. 1 100. 9 104. 5 100. 0 102. 0 110. 6 118. 8 122. 7 131. 1 132.6 133. 8 136. 3 136. 8 139. 1 142. 3 142.5 146. 8 149. 6 152. 8 153. 5 156. 0 161. 0 164. 7 c ommoditi es Inter- Producmediate er finmateished rials 3 goods 95.6 96. 9 98.9 100. 0 102. 6 106. 1 110. 0 114. 3 118. 9 119. 8 120. 1 120. 3 120.5 121. 2 122. 6 124.8 126. 6 128. 0 128. 9 128. 7 129. 5 130. 3 131. 2 93. 3 94. 4 96.8 100. 0 103. 5 106. 9 111. 9 116. 6 119. 5 119. 9 119. 7 119. 9 120. 3 120. 6 121. 2 121. 7 122. 3 123. 1 123. 4 123. 5 123. 9 124. 2 125. 1 Consurjaer finished g(>ods exeluding5 foods DurNondurable able 94. 8 98. 2 97. 9 95. 9 98.5 97. 8 100. 0 100. 0 102.2 102. 2 104, 0 105. 0 108. 2 107. 1 110. 9 111. 3 113. 2 113. 6 114. 5 113.7 112. 7 114. 7 112. 8 115. 0 113. 7 115.2 113. 8 115. 4 114. 0 117. 4 114.5 117.8 115. 3 119.8 121. 6 115. 7 124. 7 115. 9 124. 5 116. 1 116. 3 124. 5 124. 8 115. 8 116. 7 128. 2 3 E xcludes intermediate ma terials for fo od manufact uring and m anufactured anim al feeds; includes, in part , grain prodilets for furth er processing „ Soiirce: Depart ment of Lab 3r. 27 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS In the month ended October 1 5, prices received by farmers declined 4 percent following a drop of 8 percent in September. Contributing most to the October decline were lower prices for cattle, hogs, wheat, broilers, and eggs. The index of prices paid was unchanged. Both the actual and adjusted parity ratios declined 4 points. Index, 1967 =100 Index, 1967 =100 220 220 200 200 180 180 PRICES RECEIVED (ALL FARM PRODUCTS) 160 160 PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES 140 140 120 120 100 100 RATIO V 120 RATIO J/ 120 PARITY RATIO (ACTUAL) 100 90 xv '* on 70 100 TV" x% 90 -- **—•-*» , . . f . . , . > . , . ,, . , . X ".....^""l \. , , .^ «,t ,„ . , _ '•"««..p*'n 1 1 1 1 ! 1 f 1 ! 1 1 1968 f 1 f t t 1 1 f ! 1 ! 1 f ! I 1 6 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 y 1 1 1 7 9 0 1 80 -X 70 * 1 1 ? 1 1 1 f ! I t 1 1971 t t 1 f f 1 t |! I ? . , t . . 1 i . . , . . . . . . I . t . i i 60 1973 1 7 9 2 1974 J/RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES, ON 1910-14=100 BASE. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS Prices paid by farmers Prices Jreceived by farmers Period 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1972 _________ 1972: Sept 15. Oct 15Nov 15Dec 15__ 1973: Jan 15 _ Febl5_. Mar 15 _ Apr 15_ _ May 15_ June 15 _ July 15.. Aug 15.. Sept 15.. Oct 15__ 1 All farm products 93 98 105 100 103 108 110 112 126 129 130 131 137 144 149 159 157 163 172 172 207 191 184 Crops 106 103 105 100 101 97 100 107 115 117 117 120 127 131 133 140 143 154 170 164 195 183 182 Livestock All items, interest, and taxes, and products wage rates Index, 1967=100 85 94 105 100 104 117 118 116 134 138 139 138 145 153 161 174 168 169 173 179 217 198 187 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by fanners to index oi prices paid, Interest, taxes, and wage rates on 1910-14=100 base. 28 92 94 98 100 104 109 114 120 127 128 129 130 131 134 136 138 140 143 146 146 151 150 150 Family living items Parity Production items Actual 93 95 98 100 104 109 114 119 124 94 96 99 100 102 106 110 115 122 76 77 80 74 73 74 72 69 74 126 125 127 127 129 131 132 134 136 138 138 141 142 142 124 125 126 129 132 134 138 139 143 149 148 157 154 153 75 75 75 78 80 82 86 83 85 87 88 102 95 91 ! ! Adjusted 2 80 82 86 79 79 80 77 74 79 80 80 80 83 83 85 89 87 89 91 92 107 99 95 2 The adjusted parity ratio reflects Government payments made directly to farmersSource: Department of Agriculture. MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK The seasonally adjusted money stock increased at an annual rate of 4.7 percent in October. From January to October it also grew at a 4.7 percent annual rate. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 280 240 200 200 160 160 1968 COUNCIL Or ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE.- BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Averages of daily figures, billions of dollars] Ivloney stoc k li^loney stoc k Period Total 1967: 1968: 1969: 1970: 1971: 1972: 1972: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Sept Get Nov Dec 1973: Jan Feb Mar__ Apr May~_ June July Aug Sept » Oct » _ _ Deposits at commercial banks. 187. 0 201. 6 208. 8 221. 3 236. 0 255. 5 250. 1 251. 6 252. 7 255. 5 255.4 256. 7 256. 6 258. 2 260. 5 263. 2 264. 3 263. 9 263.4 264.4 CurDerency mand outdeside posits l banks SeasonallyT adjusted 40. 4 146.6 43.4 158.2 46. 1 162.7 172. 2 49. 1 52. 6 183. 4 56.8 198. 7 55. 3 194. 8 55. 7 195. 9 56. 2 196. 5 56. 8 198. 7 57. 0 198. 4 57. 5 199. 3 57. 9 198. 7 58.7 199.5 59. 0 201. 6 59. 4 203. 9 59. 5 204.9 204. 2 59. 7 203. 3 60. 1 204. 1 60. 3 Time and savings deposits l 183. 1 204.2 194.4 229. 2 270.9 312. 8 301.9 304.8 308.4 312.8 316. 9 322. 6 330. 9 336. 7 341. 8 344. 1 347. 7 353. 6 355.6 356.3 Total 192. 7 207. 7 214. 9 227.7 242. 8 262. 9 248. 7 251.2 254.3 262. 9 262. 6 254. 0 254. 1 259. 5 256. 0 261. 2 263. 2 260. 7 261. 9 264. 0 Currency outside banks 41. 2 44. 3 46. 9 50.0 53. 5 57.8 55.2 55.7 56.7 57.8 56.7 56. 7 57. 3 58.2 58. 7 59. 4 59. 9 60.0 60. 1 60. 3 Time De- mand deposits1 Unadjustec i 151. 4 163. 4 167.9 177. 8 189.2 205.0 193.5 195.5 197.7 205.0 205. 9 197. 3 196. 7 201. 3 197. 3 201. 8 203. 2 200. 8 201. 8 203. 7 and savings deposits 1 182. 1 203. 2 I 193. 2 228. 1 269. 8 i 311,7 302.7 305.9 307. 7 311.7 316.6 322. 5 i 331. 4 I 336. 1 340. 9 342. 7 345. 8 354. 7 357. 2 358. 3 U.S. Government demand deposits l 5.0 5. 0 5.6 7.3 6.9 7.3 5.9 6.6 6.2 7.3 8. 0 9. 6 10. 1 8. 2 8.4 6. 9 6. 3 4.0 5. 1 5.8 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 PRIVATE LIQUID HOLDINGS - NONFINANCIAL INVESTORS Private nonfinancial investors increased their holdings of liquid assets in October by $3.7 billion (seasonally adjusted). The sharp decline of $3.5 billion in negotiable certificates of deposit was more than offset by increases in commercial bank time deposits. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 100 1,100 1,000 1,000 500 400 400 300 300 1973 1967 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Cum3ncy and deposits Period 1966: 1967: 1968: 1969: 1970: 1971: 1972: Dec Dec Dec_ _ _ _ Dec_ _ _ Dec__ Dec Dec_ „ 1972: Sept Oct Nov.. Dec__ 1973: Jan Feb__ Mar.. _ _ Apr May June July Ano/-iiig Sept Oct v Total liquid assets Time c deposits Total Currency Commercial banks ShortNonbank term Savings marketthrift institubonds able setions curities Negotiable certificates of deposit Commercial paper 590. 6 640. 7 699. 1 730. 9 781. 5 865. 7 975.8 473.7 520. 4 563. 2 582. 2 630. 7 719. 3 814. 6 38. 3 40.4 43. 4 46. 1 49. 1 52. 6 56. 8 121. 1 129. 4 139. 4 143. 6 151. 5 161. 3 174. 7 136. 156. 174. 177. 198. 233. 264. 9 3 4 2 7 4 8 177. 3 194. 2 205. 9 215. 4 231. 4 272. 0 318. 2 50. 1 51. 0 51. 4 51. 1 51. 3 53.7 57.0 43. 6 39. 9 47. 2 65. 3 53.8 41.5 43. 4 14. 5 19. 1 22. 4 9. 0 23. 0 29. 8 39.2 8. 8 10.4 14. 9 23.4 22. 6 21. 5 21. 6 944. 953. 963. 975. 790. 799. 805. 814. 9 1 9 6 55. 3 55.7 56. 2 56. 8 171. 2 172. 1 172.7 174. 7 257.0 259. 8 262. 2 264. 8 307.4 311. 5 314. 9 318. 2 56. 1 56. 4 56.7 57. 0 39. 4 40. 2 42. 1 43. 4 36.7 36. 6 37. 5 39. 2 21. 3 21. 0 21. 5 21. 6 821. 2 827.5 832. 6 839. 0 845. 5 853. 1 857. 1 859. 8 862. 1 868. 9 57. 0 57. 5 57. 9 58.7 59. 0 59. 4 59.5 59. 7 60. 1 60. 3 173. 174. 174. 175. 177. 179. 179. 179. 177. 178. 267. 6 268. 9 271. 0 272. 8 274. 8 276.9 278.1 281.4 283. 6 287. 3 322. 7 326. 6 329. 5 332.3 334. 6 337.7 339. 6 339. 7 340. 5 342.4 57. 2 57. 6 57. 9 58.2 58. 5 58.8 59. 1 59. 2 59.3 59.5 41. 5 40. 9 42. 2 42. 6 44. 2 45. 0 45.7 47. 2 48.8 48. 6 39.9 44. 0 49. 8 53. 6 56.4 56.4 59.0 61. 5 61. 2 57.7 21. 6 20. 5 19. 4 18.8 18. 8 19. 4 20.3 21. 5 22.7 23. 2 4 3 8 8 981. 4 990. 5 1, 002. 0 1, 012. 2 1, 023. 4 1, 032. 6 1, 041. 1 1, 049. 2 1, 054. 2 [, 057. 9 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 30 Demand deposits U.S. Crovernment S€;curities 9 6 2 3 1 2 9 0 9 9 BANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, DEBITS, AND RESERVES Total loans and investments (seasonally adjusted) at all commercial banks increased at an annual rate of 7.0 percent in October, up from a revised 4.4 percent annual rate in September. Net borrowed reserves declined by $336 million during the month. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 700 700 ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 600 500 TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS 400 — 300 200 100 1974 1968 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADV-SERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM All commercial banks (seaso nally adjust ed data) End of period Investnaents L aaiis Total loans Total, Comand Other mercial U.S. Gov- securiinvest- excludernment ments ing inter- and indus- securities ties bank trial Bank debits outside New York City (232 centers) , seasonally adjusted annual rates 1 \ 2 AJl membe r banks Total reserves Billions of dollars 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1972: Oct Nov Dec 1973: Jan Feb MarApr May June_ July » Aug ' Sept*_ Oct » 352. 0 390. 2 3 401. 7 435. 5 484. 8 556. 4 540. 4 549. 9 556. 4 564. 7 575. 4 583. 6 589. 6 597. 7 602. 0 608. 2 616. 0 618. 2 621. 7 231. 3 258. 2 3 279. 1 291. 7 4 320. 3 377. 8 365. 7 372. 9 377. 8 385. 8 397. 2 405. 8 411. 1 417. 4 420. 3 427. 3 435. 3 438. 1 440. 0 86. 2 95. 9 3 105. 7 110. 0 115. 9 129. 7 126.3 128. 2 129. 7 133. 3 138. 1 141. 8 143. 9 146. 8 148. 2 151. 4 153. 6 154. 0 154. 0 59. 4 60. 7 3 51. 5 57. 9 60. 1 61. 9 60. 3 60. 9 61. 9 61. 8 60. 6 60. 4 61. 0 61. 0 61. 6 59. 6 57.7 56. 3 54. 9 1 Debits during period to demand deposit accounts except interbank and U.S. Government. 2 Averages of daily figures. Annual data are for December. 8 Beginning June 1969, data include all bank-premises subsidiaries: and other significant majority-owned domestic subsidiaries; earlier data include commercial banks only. 4 As of June 1971, Farmers Home Administration notes totaling at out $0.7 MlHnn ar/i Hn.cclfiArl SMS nt.hm- sAp.nrit.1fis rnt.hpr than as loans. Borrowings at Excess Federal Free reserves Reserve reserves Banks Millions of dollars 61. 3 71. 3 3 71. 1 85. 9 4 104. 4 116. 7 114.4 116. 1 116. 7 117. 1 117.6 117. 4 117. 5 119. 3 120. 1 121. 3 123. 0 123. 8 126. 8 3, 755 4,360 5, 150 5,717 6,443 7,530 7, 748 8, 175 S, 179 8, 589 8, 842 9, 110 9, 039 9, 270 9, 410 9, 834 10, 141 9, 890 25, 260 27, 221 28, 031 29, 265 31, 329 5 31, 353 33, 803 5 31, 774 31, 353 32, 962 31, 742 31,973 32, 277 32, 393 32, 028 33, 542 33, 785 34, 019 J4, 899 345 455 257 272 165 5 219 247 5 314 219 342 205 295 152 118 59 343 246 237 180 238 765 1, 086 321 107 1, 049 574 606 1, 049 1, 165 1, 593 1,858 6 1, 721 1, 786 1, 789 2,051 2, 143 1, 861 1, 468 107 -310 -829 -49 58 5 -830 -327 5 -292 -830 -823 -1, 388 — 1, 563 — 1, 569 ~l, 668 -1, 730 - 1, 708 - 1, 897 -1, 624 -1,288 5 Beginning November 9, 1972 adjusted to include certain reserve deficiencies on which penalties can be waived for a transition period in connection with adaptation to Regulation J. 6 Beginning April 1973, includes seasonal borrowings. Note.—Commercial bank data revised beginning 1959. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER AND REAL ESTATE CREDIT Consumer credit (seasonally unadjusted) rose $1.1 billion during September, compared to a $1.3 billion increase a year earlier. Consumer instalment credit (seasonally adjusted) increased $1.4 billion in September. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 180 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 180 20 20 P* 16 SEASON,MLY ADJUSTED (ENLARGED SCALE) /"V INSTALMENT CREDIT EXT!ENDED 12 ^s^s^ ^ \—-~^1 _/^^T^ 10 __^—1 A1 ! ! ! ! f ! 1 ! 1 1 V in INSTALMENT C REDIT REPAID | | 1 I I I ! I I 1 ! 1968 ! ! 11 1 I I | ! I ! 1969 ! I t I 1 1 ! ! ! ! 1 I 1 I 1 1 ! 1 f 1 ! I 1 ! 1 I f I ! t t f f 1972 1971 1970 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 _ _ 1971 1972 1972: Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1973: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept 1 [Millions of dollars] Consumter instalm*mt credit e xtended Consu mer credit outstandin g (end of p>eriod; imad justed") and r epaid (seas onally adjiisted) To tal Instalment Automoh>ile paper NonAutomoTotal instal- Extended Repaid Extended Repaid bile Total * Personal ment 2 paper loans 80, 268 89, 883 96, 239 100, 783 110, 770 121, 146 127, 163 138, 394 157} 564 147, 631 148, 976 150, 576 152, 968 157, 564 157, 227 157, 582 159, 320 161, 491 164, 277 167, 083 169, 148 171, 978 173, 035 62, 692 70, 893 76, 245 79, 428 87, 745 97, 105 102, 064 111,295 127, 332 119, 911 121, 193 122, 505 124, 325 127, 332 127, 368 127, 959 129, 375 131, 022 133, 531 136, 018 138, 212 140, 810 142, 093 24, 934 28, 437 30, 010 29, 796 32, 948 35, 527 35, 184 38, 664 44, 129 42, 323 42, 644 43, 162 43, 674 44, 129 44, 353 44, 817 45, 610 46, 478 47, 518 48, 549 49, 352 50, 232 50, 557 6 N COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 17, 848 20, 237 21, 662 23, 235 25, 932 28, 652 30, 345 32, 865 36, 922 35, 450 35, 755 36, 003 36, 413 36, 922 36, 870 37, 108 37, 486 37, 695 38, 376 38, 928 39, 440 40, 064 40, 397 Also Includes other consumer goods paper, and repair and modernization loans, not shown separately. " Consists of single-payment loans, charge accounts, and service credit. 32 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 IN 1974 1973 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period 12 -"" 17, 576 18, 990 19, 994 21, 355 23, 025 24, 041 25, 099 27, 099 30, 232 27, 720 27, 783 28, 071 28, 643 30, 232 29, 859 29, 623 29, 945 30, 469 30, 746 31, 065 30, 936 31, 168 30, 942 s 70, 670 78, 661 82, 832 87, 171 99, 984 109, 146 112, 158 124, 281 142, 951 12, 484 11, 953 12, 404 12, 846 12, 627 13, 304 13, 434 13, 852 13, 465 13, 932 13, 646 14, 542 14, 294 13, 691 63, 470 70, 463 77, 480 83, 988 91, 667 99, 786 107, 199 115, 050 126, 914 10, 841 10, 667 10, 908 11, 128 10, 964 11, 355 11, 437 .11, 808 12, 061 11, 941 12, 034 12, 544 12, 399 12, 332 24, 046 27, 208 27, 192 26, 320 31, 083 32, 553 29, 794 34, 873 40, 194 3,491 3,368 3,504 3, 620 3,763 4, 006 3,972 4, 001 3, 822 3, 989 3, 762 3, 930 3, 968 3, 939 21, 369 23, 706 25, 619 26, 534 27, 931 29, 974 30, 137 31, 393 34, 729 2, 896 2, 873 3, 041 3, 023 2, 977 3, 097 3, 145 3, 225 3,218 3, 261 3, 253 3, 334 3, 293 3,406 End of period, unadjusted. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Mortgage debt outstanding, nonfarm, 1 1- to 4famiiy houses 3 197, 600 212, 900 223, 600 236, 100 251, 200 266, 800 280, 200 307, 800 346, 100 335, 800 346, 100 " 353, 700 " 365, 800 » 376, 600 BOND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES Short-term Interest rates increased and long-term rates edged upward in early November. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM CORPORATE Aaa BONDS (MOODY'S) 1973 1967 SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW Period 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972_ 1972: Oct Nov Dec 1973: Jan Feb__. Mar Apr _ May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Week ended : 1973: Oct 19__ 26- _ Nov 2__ 9__ 16— 23__l 1 3 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] High-grade U.S. Gov<^rnment secujrity yields municipal 3-month bonds 3—5 year Taxable 2 Treasury 3 (Standard4 & issues bonds bills * Poor's) 4. 321 3. 98 5.07 4. 85 5.339 4.51 5.59 5.25 6. 677 5. 81 6. 85 6. 10 6. 458 6. 51 7. 37 6. 59 4. 348 5. 70 5. 77 5. 74 4.071 5.27 5.85 5. 63 4. 719 5. 20 6.11 5. 69 4. 774 5. 03 6.03 5. 50 5.03 5.061 6.07 5. 63 5.307 5. 05 6.29 5. 94 5. 12 5. 558 6.61 6. 14 6. 054 5. 30 6. 85 6. 20 6. 289 5. 16 6. 74 6. 11 5. 12 6. 348 6. 22 6.78 5. 15 7. 188 6. 32 6. 76 8.015 7. 49 6. 53 5. 39 5.47 8. 672 7. 75 6. 81 5. 11 6. 42 8.478 7. 16 5.05 7. 155 6. 81 6. 26 7. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6 7. 188 959 196 098 636 704 6. 80 6.80 6.83 7. 03 7. 16 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 27 28 27 33 35 2 Rate on new issues within period. Selected note and bond issues. April 1953 to date, bonds due or callable 10 years and after. 6 * Weekly data are Wednesday figures. Not charted. 8 Data for first of the month, based on the maximum permissible interest rate >i percent beginning August 25, 1973) and 30-year mortgages paid in 15 years. 5.03 5. 09 5. 15 5. 15 5. 24 Prime commercial paper, 4_6 Baa months 6. 23 5. 10 6.94 5.90 7. 83 7. 81 7.72 9. 11 8. 56 5. 11 8. 16 4. 69 8. 06 5. 30 7.99 5. 25 7. 93 5.45 7. 90 5.78 7.97 6. 22 8. 03 6.85 7. 14 8. 09 7.27 8. 06 7. 99 8. 13 8. 24 9. 18 10. 21 8. 53 10.23 8. 63 8.41 8. 92 Corpora te bonds (Moc dy's) Aaa 5.51 6.18 7. 03 8. 04 7.39 7. 21 7.21 7. 12 7.08 7. 15 7. 22 7. 29 7. 26 7. 29 7. 37 7. 45 7. 68 7. 63 7.60 7.58 7. 64 7. 65 7. 67 7. 69 8.40 8. 41 8. 43 8. 43 8. 42 FHA new home mortgage yields 6 6. 55 7. 13 8. 19 9. 05 7. 78 7. 53 7. 56 7.57 7.57 7.56 7. 55 7.56 7. 63 7.73 7. 79 7. 89 8. 19 9. 18 8. 97 9.03 8. 56 8. 28 8.69 9. 08 Sources: Department of Housing and Urban Development, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 33 COMMON STOCK PRICES, YIELD, AND EARNINGS The stock market declined from mid-October to mid-November. Index, 1941-43=10 Index, 1941-43=10 120 120 COMPOSITE PRICE INDEX FOR 500 COMMON STOCKS 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 I i. i i i i I 60 I I i I t 1 ! ! 1 | 1 I I I I I I I I I | I I I I I I 1 I I LJI 1 ! I I t I I I 1 l i t PER CENT 5 PERCEf WEEKLY MOhfTHLY DIVIDENl> YIELD ON COMMCDN STOCKS 4 3 "- 2 1J ~"~ "™ *" 1 II 1 1 1 I! M I t | 1 I 1 1 1 \^—^ 1 1 ! 1 ! 1 I I 1 1 I 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 f I — ^— *^^ ^t****"^ ~~ 1 1 1 f t ! 1 t ! ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 i ! f ! 1 ! f ! M l f f M 1 Jfs RATIO RATIO 25 PRICE/ EARNIN 3S RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS \ 20 ——-1*^^——" — r p—-_ Xx 15 10 /^y ^ _ _ _ ^x. ^ 1 / i l l ! ! 1967 1 ! 1968 ! ! 1 1969 1 ! 1 1 — f 1970 . f ! 1971 ^x. i i i 1967 1968 __ 1969 _ 1970 1971 1972 1972: Oct Nov Dec 1973: Jan Feb Mar Apr _._ _ Total 91. 93 98.69 97. 84 83. 22 98. 29 109. 20 109. 56 115. 05 117. 50 118. 42 114. 16 112. 42 110. 27 107. 22 104. 75 105. 83 103. 80 105. 61 109. 84 99. 18 107. 49 107. 13 91. 29 108. 35 121. 79 122. 39 128. 29 131. 08 132. 55 127. 87 126. 05 123. 56 119. 95 117. 20 118. 65 116. 75 118. 52 123. 42 108. 81 110. 42 110.09 110. 21 108. 71 105. 72 103. 51 122. 02 124. 01 123. 76 123. 97 122. 22 118. 77 116. 36 Public utilities Railroads Dividend yield 2 (percent) 1941-<13 = 10 96. 96 79. 18 105. 77 86.33 103. 75 87. 06 80. 22 87. 87 102. 80 99. 78 113. 91 119. 39 112. 94 119. 50 122. 11 119. 51 124. 57 122. 26 127. 04 122. 57 125. 56 117. 54 124. 53 116. 41 120. 38 111. 24 107. 44 116. 48 114. 75 104. 83 116. 31 105. 94 115. 98 104. 35 116. 60 105. 16 122. 30 106. 58 68. 10 66.42 62. 64 54. 48 59. 33 56. 90 56. 66 61. 16 61.73 60. 01 57. 52 55. 94 55. 34 55. 43 54.37 53. 31 50. 14 52.31 53. 22 46. 72 48.84 45. 95 32. 13 41.94 44. 11 41. 20 42. 41 44. 62 42. 87 40.61 39. 29 38. 88 36. 14 34. 35 35. 22 33. 76 35.49 38.24 3. 20 3.07 3. 24 3. 83 3. 14 2. 84 2. 82 2. 73 2. 70 2. 69 2. 80 2. 83 2. 90 3. 01 3. 06 3. 04 3. 16 3. 13 3. 05 118. 33 122. 16 124. 13 124. 77 122. 12 118. 57 116. 88 54. 21 53. 93 52. 87 52. 46 51. 88 50. 38 48. 61 37. 50 38. 13 38. 39 38. 58 38.73 40. 03 40.46 ^ 10 Price/ earnings ratio a 3. 06 3. 05 3. 03 3. 03 3. 10 3. 17 3. 31 Capital goods i Includes 500 common stocks: 425 industrials, 65 public utilities, and 20 railroads. Weekly indexes for capital and consumer goods are Wednesday figures; all2 other weekly indexes are averages of daily figures. Aggregate cash dividends (based on latest known annual rate) divided by the aggregate monthly market value of the stocks in the group. Annual yields ! COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total __ ! 1973 Price i ndex 1 Industrials May__ _ _ June July Aug _ _ _ __ Sept Oct Week ended : 1973: Oct 5 12 19 26 Nov 2 9 16 34 1 1972 SOURCE: STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION Period . 15 r^ Consumers' goods 106. 86 106. 96 107. 26 106. 79 105. 02 102. 68 97.82 17.48 17.66 16.48 15. 69 18.50 18.20 18.39 16.40 14. 40 are averages of monthly data. WTeekly data are Wednesday figures. 3 Ratio of price index for last day of quarter to earnings for 12 months ending with that quarter. Annual ratios are averages of quarterly data. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation. FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBT In the first 3 months of fiscal 1974 there was a deficit of $1.1 billion; a year earlier the deficit was $1.9 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 260 260 220 220 -20 -40 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1970 1969 FISCAL YEARS' 1971 1972 1973 1974 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Federal debt ( end of period) Period Fiscal year: 1962 1983 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 _ _ _ _ Receipts _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _. 1970 1971 1972 1973_ 19742 Cumulative totals for first 3 months: Fiscal year 1973 _ _ _ Fiscal year 1974 __ 1 Excludes non-interest-bearing public debt securities held by IMF. * Estimates as revised November 15,1973. Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) Total i Held by the public 99. 7 106. 6 112. 7 106. 8 111. 3 118. 6 -7. 1 -4.8 -5. 9 303. 3 310.8 316.8 248.4 254, 5 257. 6 116. 8 130. 9 149. 6 153. 7 187.8 118. 4 134. 7 158. 3 178. 8 184. 5 -1.6 323. 2 329.5 341. 3 369. 8 367. 1 261. 6 264. 7 267.5 290. 6 279. 5 193.7 188.4 208. 6 232.2 270.0 196. 6 211. 4 231.9 246.5 270.0 8 0 2 3 .0 382. 6 409. 5 437. 3 468.4 481.1 284. 9 304. 3 323. 8 343.0 340.2 55. 7 64.4 57.6 65. 5 -1.9 — 1. 1 444. 6 472. 1 328.8 342.3 3.8 -8. 7 -25. 2 3. 2 -2. -23. -23. -14. Sources: Treasury Department and Office of Management and Budget. 35 FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 3 months of fiscal 1974 budget receipts were $8.7 billion higher than a year earlier and budget outlays were $7.9 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 120 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 180 180 OUTLAYS 160 160 140 140 120 120 NONDEFENSE 100 100 80 NATIONAL DEFENSE 60 _L 40 1963 J_ 1964 1965 60 _L J_ 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 40 1973 1974 FISCAL YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES. TREASURY DS>ARTMBtf AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] (Dutlays Recei pts National defense Period Fiscal year: 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 * Cumulative totals for first 3 months: Fiscal year 1973—Fiscal year 1974___ Total Other Total Department of Total Defense, military 33.6 37.4 40. 5 42. 6 45. 3 54. 1 56. 3 63. 9 70.5 75.4 81. 7 92.8 109.0 106.8 111.3 118. 6 118.4 134.7 158. 3 178. 8 184.5 196.6 211. 4 231. 9 246. 5 270.0 51. 1 52. 3 53. 6 49.6 56.8 70. 1 80. 5 81. 2 80. 3 77.7 78. 3 76.1 81.0 46.9 48. 1 49.6 46. 0 54. 2 67.5 77.4 77.9 77. 2 74.5 75. 2 73. 3 78. 2 6.7 22.3 27. 3 57. 6 65. 5 16.4 17.7 16. 1 17.7 99.7 106. 6 112.7 116. 8 130.9 149.6 153.7 187. 8 193.7 1SS.4 208.6 232.2 270.0 48.8 55.4 61. 5 68. 7 87.2 90.4 86. 2 94.7 103.3 117.0 20.5 21.6 23.5 25.5 30. 1 34. 0 28.7 36.7 32. 8 26.8 32.2 36. 1 44.0 55; 7 64.4 26.7 29.8 7; 3 i Estimates as revised November 15,1973. 36 Individual Corporation income income taxes taxes 45. 6 47.6 4&7 Interna- Health tional and Inaffairs income terest Other and security 4. 1 23.7 25. 5 26. 8 27. 4 31. 5 37.8 43.7 49. 3 56.7 70.6 81.5 91. 2 105. 8 10. 4 11.3 12. 6 13. 7 15. 8 18. 3 19. 6 20. 6 22. 8 27.7 .8 .8 20.0 24. 0 6.7 4.5 4. 1 4. 1 4. 3 4. 5 4. 5 4.6 3. 8 3.6 3. 1 3.8 3.2 8.3 9. 2 9.8 5. 3 Sources: Treasury Department and Office of Management and Budget. 19. 2 20.3 24. 2 26. 7 30.6 33. 2 36. 2 34.4 37. 7 40.5 47. 6 53.4 51. 4 15. 1 16. 1 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS According to current estimates for the third quarter, Federal receipts increased $7.4 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rates) and expenditures rose $3.2 billion, yielding a surplus of $4.3 billion—the first surplus since the last quarter of 1969. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 140 140 120 120 +20 +20 SURPLUS P I P I j!! li P&l Ii i Psi i I i i ^ 1 ~ I i 11 -20 1 \ 1i DEFICIT 1 -40 f f f ! ! 1968 1967 f f ! 1969 1 ! } ! f | f 1971 1970 p/^ m M f -20 \ ! f f -40 1973 } 972 CALENDAR YEA RS cou NC!L SOURCE-. DEPARTMENT Of CC)MMERCE OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Feeleral Go1^emmenl; expend]tures Federal (jovernm ent receipts Period Personal Corpo- Indirect rate business Total tax and profits tax and nontax tax nontax receipts accruals accruals GrantsContriPurin-aid chases Trans- to State Net butions for Total of goods fer pay- and interest and ments local paid social ingovernservices surance ments Surplus or Subsidies Less: rl^fipit less Wage UtJIlL'll) .(-)' current accruals income surplus of less and Govern- disment en- burse- product terprises ments Fiscal year : 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 Calendar year: 1969 1970 1971 1972 190. 4 195.2 192. 6 213.7 242.9 90.0 93.6 87.4 100. 1 107. 1 37.4 33.3 32.2 34.7 44.0 18. 6 19.2 20. 1 19.9 20.6 44.4 49. 1 52. 9 59.0 71. 1 185. 7 99. 4 195.9 98.0 212. 6 95.9 233. 2 103.2 255. 0 105. 0 50. 7 56.8 69.7 78.6 89. 1 19.2 22. 6 26.8 32. 9 40.2 12. 3 14.0 14.3 13.4 14.3 197. 3 192.0 198. 9 228.7 94. 8 92. 2 89.9 107.9 36. 6 31.0 33.3 37.8 19. 0 19. 3 20.4 19.9 46. 9 49.5 55.2 63. 0 189. 2 98. 8 203. 9 96.2 221.0 98. 1 244. 6 104.4 52.4 63.2 74.9 82.9 20. 3 24.4 29. 1 37.7 13. 1 14.6 13.6 13.5 5.5 5.3 1972: I II—. III.. IV... 222. 9 225. 4 229. 6 236. 9 105. 6 106. 6 108. 1 111.3 36. 0 36. 7 38.0 40. 7 19.7 19.7 19. 9 20.3 61. 5 62. 4 63.6 64.6 236. 6 244.4 237.0 260. 3 106. 0 106. 7 102. 3 102. 7 79.7 80. 1 80.8 91.0 32.2 38. 0 34.4 46. 1 13.1 13. 6 13.4 13.7 5.5 5.9 6.2 6.7 1973: I 253.6 II... 262.4 IH». 269.8 108. 5 111.4 116.9 46.6 50.8 51.3 20. 7 21.2 20.8 77.8 79.1 80.8 258.6 105.5 262.4 107.3 265.6 106.8 91.8 93.8 96.6 41. 1 40.5 40.5 14.7 15.6 16.2 5.5 5.1 5.3 4. 1 4. 7 5.8 5.2 6.3 4. 6 6. 1 0.0 4.7 .1 ^ !o -. 7 -19. 9 -19. 5 -12. 1 .0 8. 1 -11. 9 -22. 2 -15. 9 — .1 .0 -13.8 — 19. 0 -7.4 -23. 4 o —a I . -5.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 4.3 Source: Department of Commerce. 37 UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE POSTAGE AND FEES PAID U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE D I V I S I O N OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS WASHINGTON, D.C. 2O4O2 OFFICIAL BUSINESS First-Class Mall Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, IMCOME, SPENDING Page The Nation's Income, Expenditure, and Saving Gross National Product or Expenditure National Income Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profi ts Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Measures of Unemployment and Part-Time Employment Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Weekly Hours of Work—Selected Industries Average Hourly and Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Production of Selected Manufactures Weekly Indicators of Production New Construction New Housing Starts and Applications for Financing Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and New Orders Merchandise Exports and Imports „ U.S. Balances on Goods, Services, and Transfers U.S. Overall Balances on International Transactions . 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 PRICES Consumer Prices _ Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers MONEY, CREDIT, Money Stock Private Liquid Asset Holdings—Nonfinancial Investors Bank Loans, Investments, Debits, and Reserves Consumer and Real Estate Credit Bond Yields and Interest Rates Common Stock Prices, Yield, and Earnings 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 35 36 37 NOTE.—Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. 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