Full text of Economic Indicators : November 1951

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82d Congress, 1st Session

Economic Indicators
1951
Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report




by the Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1951

JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, Chairman
EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Vice Chairman
JOHN J. SPARKMAN, Alabama
PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois
WILLIAM BENTON, Connecticut
ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio
RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont
ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah

WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas
RICHARD W. BOLLING, Missouri
CLINTON D. McKINNON, California
JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan
CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts
J. CALEB BOGGS, Delaware
GB.OVER W. ENSLEY, Staff Director
JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
(Created pursuant to Sec. 4 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
LEON H. KEYSERLING, Chairman
JOHN D. CLARK
ROY BLOUGH

[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [S. J. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives pf the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint
Committee on the Economic Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators,"
and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the
Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two
copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint
Committee on the Economic Report; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for
distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed
for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
Charts drawn by Graphics Unit, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce

11



Contents
THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY
The Nation's Economic Budget
Gross National Product

Page

1
2

PRICES
Consumers' Prices
Wholesale Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
Stock Prices

* 3
4
5
6

EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
Civilian Labor Force
Nonagricultural Employment—Selected Industries
Average Weekly Hours—Selected Industries
Average Hourly Earnings—Selected Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries

7
8
9
10
11

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production
Weekly Production—Selected Indicators
Production of Selected Manufactures
New Construction
New Housing Starts
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
New Corporate Security Issues
Inventories and Sales
Merchandise Exports and Imports

12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

PURCHASING POWER
National Income
Corporate Profits
Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving
Per Capita Disposable Income
Farm Income

21
22
23
24
25
26
27

CREDIT, MONEY, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
Bank Loans and Investments
Consumer Credit. .
Bond Yields and Interest Rates
Money Supply
Federal Cash. Receipts From and Payments to the Public




28
29
30
31
32

THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
In the third quarter, consumer income and expenditures rose at about the same rate, thus maintaining the high savings
ratio of the second quarter. With much smaller inventory accumulation, business investment dropped $6K billion at
a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Government cash receipts rose by $4 billion, while payments rose by $5 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES,SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

150
TCONSUMERS
1951
SECOND QUARTER

"Transfer-^
* payments

1951
THIRD QUARTER

BUSINESS
1951
SECOND QUARTER

1951
THIRD QUARTER

INTERNATIONAL

1951
SECOND QUARTER

1951
THIRD QUARTER

GOVERNMENT (Federal, State,and local)

1951
SECOND QUARTER
Transfer payments"

195!
THIRD QUARTER

EXCESS OF RECEIPTS (+}, EXPENDITURES (-)
1951, SECOND QUARTER
-25
0
25

1951, THIRD QUARTER
-25

0

25

CONSUMERS

BUSINESS

INTERNATIONAL
GOVERMENT (-Federal,State,and local)

TRANSFER PAYMENTS ARE INCLUDED IN RECEIPTS OR EXPENDITURES OF THE SEPARATE ACCOUNTS BUT NOT IN THE TOTAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT.
NOTE: SEE PAGE 2 FOR THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET TOTAL {GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT).
SOURCE; MIDYEAR ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JULY 1951, APPENDIX A.




COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
The gross national product rose by less than 1 percent between the second and third quarters of this year.
ment security expenditures increased by more than 1 5 percent, and consumer expenditures rose moderately.
investment dropped 10 percent as the rate of inventory accumulation declined.

GovernBusiness

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

350

350
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY

1940

42

44

ADJUSTED

46

'- 1952

1949
•^PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES-BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED)

[Billions of dollars]

Personal
Total gross
consump- Gross private Net foreign
national
domestic
tion expend- investment investment
product
itures

Period

1939
1944
1946
1947
1948
1949__
1950

.

91.3
213.7
211. 1
233.3
259. 0
257.3
282.6

67.5
111.6
146.9
165.6
177. 9
180. 2
193.6

9.9
7.7
28.7
30.2
42.7
33. 0
48.9

0.9
o i

^^ •&• X

4.6
8.9
1. 9
.5 -2. 3

Government purchases of goods and
services
Total

13.1
96.5
30.9
28.6
36. 6
43 6
42. 5

National
security 1

Other *

1.3
87. 5
18. 5
12.9
15. 2
18. 5
18.8

11.8
9.0
12.4
15. 7
21.4
25. 1
23.7

16.4
16.2
17. 1
23.2
28.3
'84: 8
40.7

24. 9
23.9
23. 7
24. 6
24.6
25.2
25.3

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1950:
;
;
;
1951:

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter^ - _.
First quarter
Second quarter. _
Third quarter 3

264.4
275.0
287.4
303. 7
318.5
325.6
328.0

184.7
188.7
202. 5
198.4
208.2
201.7
204. 0

40. I
47.9
47.3
60.2
59.6
63.5
57.0

-1.7
-1. 6
-3.2
-2.7
-2.3
.5
1.0

41.3
40. 1
40.8
47.8
52. 9
60.0
66.0

» Based on Treasury Bulletin break-down of Federal budgetary expenditures adjusted to the concept of purchases of goods and services; Includes "national defense
and 3related activities," Atomic Energy, Mutual Defense Assistance, and other unilateral transfers since 1947; excludes Federal Government sales.
Residual; expenditures by the Federal Government for other than "national defense" and total expenditures by State and local governments.
* Estimates based on incomplete data; by Council of Economic A.dvisers.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).




PRICES

CONSUMERS' PRICES

Heavily influenced by a 2.7 percent rise in the price of apparel as winter clothing entered the market, the consumer's
price index increased 0.6 percent between August and September. All components of the index advanced.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

J F M A M J J A S O N O J F M A M J J A S O N D

1946

1950

1949

1948

1947

1951
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

[1935-39=100]
Period
1939
1943
1944
1945
1946
1948
1949
1950

monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
June 15
September 15-.
October 15
November 15
December 15
1951: January 15
February 15March 15
April 15
May 15
June 15
July 15
._
August 15
1
September 15

All items
99. 4
123.7
125.7
128. 6
139.5
171.9
170.2
171.9
170. 2
174. 6
175 6
176. 4
178. 8
181 5
183. 8
184 5
184. 6
185. 4
185. 2
185. 5
185. 5
186.6

Food

95.2
138.0
136. 1
139. 1
159.6
210.2
201.9
204.4
203. 1
210. 0
210 6
210. 8
216 3
221. 9
226. 0
226. 2
225. 7
227. 4
226. 9
227. 7
227. 0
227.3

Apparel

100. 5
129.7
138.8
145.9
160.2
198.0
190. 1
187. 7
184 6
189. 8
193 0
194. 3
195 5
198 5
202. 0
203. 1
203. 6
204. 0
204. 0
203. 3
203 6
209.0

Rent

104. 3
108.7
109. 1
109. 5
110. 1
121. 2
126. 4
131.0
130 9
131 8
132 0
132 5
132 9
133 2
134. 0
134. 7
135. 1
135. 4
135. 7
136. 2
136 8
137.5

Fuel, electricity, and
refrigeration

99.0
107.7
109. 8
110. 3
112.4
133. 9
137.5
140. 6
139. 1
141. 2
142 0
142. 5
142. 8
143. 3
143. 9
144. 2
144. 0
143. 6
143. 6
144. 0
144. 2
144. 4

Housefurnishings

101.3
125.6
136.4
145.8
159.2
195.8
189.0
190.2
184. 8
194.2
198. 7
201. 1
203.2
207. 4
209. 7
210.7
211.8
212.6
212. 5
212.4
210. 8
211. 1

Miscellaneous

100.7
115.8
121.3
124. 1
128.8
149.9
1546
156.5
154.6
157.8
158.3
159.2
160. 6
162. 1
163.2
164.3
164.6
165.0
164.8
165.0
165.4
166. 0

i A special survey of food prices indicated a rise of 1.0 percent between September 15 to October 15.
NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities.
Source: Department of Labor.
The index has been revised, beginning with January 1940, to correct the downward bias resulting from the failure to take account of the .differentials in rent between
newly built housing and comparable existing dwellings. Certain changes, starting with January I960, to commodity coverage and weighting were linked into the index
providing an improved and consistent series.




WHOLESALE PRICES
During October, the all commodity index of wholesale prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Farm prices rallied
and food prices averaged a 1 percent increase over the September level. There was little change in the average price
of industrial products.
PERCENT

PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE

OF 1926 AVERAGE

220

2EO

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J

1946

1947

1948

J A S O N D J

F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J

1949

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

J A S O N D

1951

1950

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1926=100]

1942 monthly average——-1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average-1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average
1950 monthly average
June
-.
September
.
October .
November
December
1951: January ^
___>
February
March
*
April „--

.

- -

-

-.- _ - .

_..-

.

...

.

May___

'June
-_•
July
August
September - - - - October 1 — Week ended:
1951: October 2 _ •
9
16

23
30
1

.

.

_ _ - _ - _ -...«.*.
--

Estimates based on change IB weekly data,




98 8
121 1
152 1
165 I
155 0
161 5
157. 3
169 5
169. 1
171. 7
175. 3
180 1
183. 6
184 0
183 6
182. 9
181. 7
179. 4
178 0
177. 6
178. 1

105 9
148 9
181 2
188 3
165. 5
170 4
165. 9
180. 4
177. 8
183. 7
187.4
194. 2
202. 6
203. 8
202. 5
199. 6
198. 6
194. 0
190. 6
189. 2
192. 4

99. 6
130 7
168. 7
179. 1
161. 4
166. 2
162. 1
177. 2
172. 5
175. 2
179.0
182. 2
187. 6
186. 6
185. 8
187.3
186. 3
186.0
187. 3
188. 0
190. 1

Other than
farm products
and foods
95. 5
109. 5
135. 2
151.0
147. 3
153. 2
148. 7
159. 2
161. 5
163.7
166.7
170.3
171. 8
172. 4
172.3
171.7
170.5
168. 6
167. 2
166.9
166.6

177. 1
177. 4
177. 7
177. 1
177. 0

191. 1
193. 1
195. 2
192. 3
192. 1

189.5
191.2
191. 6
190. 1
189.9

165.2
165. 0
165. 1
165. 1
165. 1

All commodities

Period

...

Farm
products

Source: Department o! Labor.

Foods

PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
After dropping for seven months, prices received by farmers rose 5 points, or about 1 % percent, between mid-September and mid-October. This was more than enough to offset a slight rise in prices paid by farmers, resulting in an
increase in the parity ratio from 103 to 105.
PERCENT OF I9IO-I4 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF I9IO-I4 AVERAGE

350

350

I946

194?

1948

1950

1949

1951

* RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES AND WAGE RATES.
SOURCE! DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1910-14=100]
Prices paid by
farmers (includPrices
ing interest, Parity ratio l
received
taxes, and
by farmers
wage rates)

Period

1939 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average
1950 monthly average
June 15 __
September 15
October 15
November 15
December 15
1951: January 15
February 15
March 15
April 15
May 15
June 15
July 15
August 15
September 15
October 15
1
Ratio
1

...

. . ..
1

.
.

-

-_

.
«

-

..
..
.

__

2
2

95
158

196
234

275
285
249
256
247
272
268
276
286
300
313
311
309
305
301
294
292
291
296

123
152
182
207
239
259
250
255
254
260
261
263
265
272
276
280
283
283
282
282
282
282
283

of index of prices received to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates.
Includes wartime subsidy payments paid on beef cattle, sheep, lambs, milk, and butterfat between October 1943 and June 1946.
Source: Department of Agriculture.

9148T—51



2

77
104
108
113
115
110
100
100
97
105
103
105
108
110
113
111
109
108
107
104
104
103
105

STOCK PRICES
Stock prices suffered a substantial break in the last half of October,
PERCENT OF 1939 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1939 AVERAGE

250

260

1940 41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48 49 SO

I960

1949
SOURCE:

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SECURITIES AND EXCHANSE "COMMISSION.

Composite
index *

Period

[1939=100]
Manufacturing
Total

Weekly average:

1940 — „ . _-_.
1942.
;
1944
_
1946
...
1948
1949.
.... .
1950

June
_ - _ - ._
September
October
November
T^ec^fnhsr
1951: January
February
March
April

May

June
July
August
September
October
Week ended:
1951: October 6

13 ...

:

20 - -

! - 27November 3

1951

Durable
goods

Nondurable
goods

Transportation

Utilities

Trade,
finance,
and
service

Mining

90.6
749
108.0
149. 6
132.3
127.6
154 1
158.3
159.3
164 9
165. 9
165.2
176.7
1840
179. 9
183.1
181.6
178.8
181.8
189. 7
194. 4
191. 4

93.4
75.5
108.9
146. 6
136.2
132.1
165.7
171. 1
173.3
180.3
181.8
180.4
1942
203.0
198.4
203.8
202.6
199.9
2044
2148
220. 4
215. 8

92.5
73.7
104 5
13&8
1244
116.0
150.4
156.0
157.5
166. 0
166.0
161.7
1748
181.6
178. 2
181.2
175.3
168.9
170.3
178.5
185.2
185. 1

942
77.1
109. 1
154.4
147.0
147.2
180.2
185.0
187.9
193.7
196. 5
197.9
212.3
222. 8
217.0
224.8
228. 1
228. 7
236.2
248.8
253.0
244.3

99. 1
90.8
140. 5
202.6
158. 1
138.8
159.9
149.5
168.2
171. 4
. 171. 1
1844
202.0
213. 1
200.0
201. 9
196.7
188.3
187.9
195.5
203. 6
203.3

97.7
69.8
100.8
121.0
99.4
98. 1
107.2
1148
107.1
107. 8
107.4
106.5
110.3
112. 1
112.9
111.'4
110.4
109.9
111.2
114 1
115. 0
114 3

86.7
75.9
71.3
59.7
117.1
93.2
204. 3
125.5
156.9
isa2
160.5
129.2
183.8
143.5
182.4
143.0
187.8
150.3
19a3
1545
200.8
157.6
195.7
159.7
205. 1
175.9
213.2
184.2
209.7
176.7
207.8 . 183 4
206. 0
187.7
200.9
186.0
202.2
195:2
206.0
21&6
214 4
230. 9
2140
243.6

196. 1
195. 9
189. 9
183.7
185.5

221.8
221.5
214.0
205.8
208.3

189.7
190. 6
183.3
176.8
177.3

251. 8
250. 2
242. 5
232.8
237.2

211. 1
209.5
200.3
192.2
192. 4

115. 1
115. 5
113.9
112.8
113.5

218.7
217.6
213.5
206.2
207.4

238. 6
247. 9
243. 1
244.7
246.4

> Includes 285 common stocks, distributed as follows: 14 for mining, 98 tor durable goods manufacturing, 72 for nondurable goods manufacturing, 21 for
transportation, 28 f&f utilities; and 32 tor trade, finance, and service.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.




EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE
The civilian labor force and employment showed little change in October as both moved upward by only about
250,000. Unemployment was practically unchanged at 1.6 million, or 2.5 percent of the civilian labor force of
63.5 million.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

70

70

_

I

PERCENT

•

20

UNEMF
UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE

—

,I

™ Hi 1 1
1 1
1939

1944

1948

1949

1951
* 14 Y E A R S OF AGE AND OVER.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

1939 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average.June
September
October
November
December

-

_-

195 It January
February. - _
March
April
May •
„_
June
July
August
September... _ _
October2 _ _ „ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

Civilian labor force
UnemEmployment *
Total
ployAgricul- NonagriTotal
ment
tural
cultural
Thousands of persons, 14 years of age and over
55, 230
45, 750
9, 610
36, 140
9,480
54, 630
53, 960
8,950
45, 010
670
60, 168
58, 027
8,266
49, 761
2,142
61, 442
59, 378
7,973
51, 405
2,064
62, 105
58, 710
8,026
50, 684
3,395
63, 099
59, 957
7,507
52, 450
3, 142
64, 866
61, 482
9,046
52, 436
3,384
63, 567
61, 226
7,811
53, 415
2, 341
63, 704
61, 764
8,491
53, 273
1,940
63, 512
61,271
7,551
53, 721
2,240
62, 538
60,308
6,234
54, 075
2,229
61,514
61, 313
62, 325
61, 789
62, 803
63, 783
64, 382
64, 208
63, 186
63,452

59, 010
58, 905
60, 179
60, 044
61, 193
61,803
62, 526
62, 630
61, 580
61, 836

6,018
5,930
6,393
6,645
7,440
8,035
7,908
7,688
7,526
7,668

52, 993
52, 976
53, 785
53, 400
53, 753
53, 768
54, 618
54, 942
54, 054
54, 168

2,503
2, 407
2, 147
1,744
1,609
1,980
1,856
1, 578
1,606
1,616

Unemployment as percent of total
civilian
labor force

17.2
1.2
3.6
3.4
5.5
5.0
5. 2
3.7
3.0
3.5
3.6
4. 1
3.9
3.4
2.8
2.6
3. 1
2.9
2.5
2.5
2.5

1
Includes part-time workers and those who had jobs but were not at work for such reasons as vacation, illness, bad weather, temporary lay-off,
and industrial disputes.
'
2 Data became available after chart was prepared.
NOT*.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.




NONAGRIGULTURAIi EMPLOYMENT - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
Manufacturing employment showed little change in September with increases in durable goods being offset by declines in ndndurables. The number of persons employed in trade and government rose considerably.
MILLIONS .OF WASE
AND SALARY WORKERS
8.5 I

MILLIONS Of W«0£
AND SALARY WORKERS
9.3

NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING

DURABLE MANUFACTURING
9.0

8.5

^1949

e.o

M95Q

\ -X
a t~

I
J

I
F

I
M

l
A

I .
M

I
J

I
J

I

1

A

5

A

I
0

I
N

I

ol~

I

I
F

D

S

M

F

M

A

I

AM

I

I

I

0

,1

J

J

A

I

AS

I

I

a

N

0

0

N

0

.CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION

^—1949

r

i
J

F

M

A

MM

J

J

M

5

COUNCIL OF-gCOHQMIC ADVISERS

SOUHC&s QEPARTUCNT OF LABOR.

[Thousands of wage and salary workers l]
Manufacturing
Period
Total
1939 monthly average
1943 monthly average. _« »
1946 monthly average »
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average.
1950 monthly averageJune
L
August
, •
September .
.
October
November.. „
December. _..
1951: January
_
February _„ •
March , :
April
May
June
Julys
_
August 2 2 i. .
September

Contract
construcDurable Nondution
goods rable gooda

4,683
10, 078
11, 077
17, 381
7,739
14, 461
8,315
15, 286
7, 465
14, 146
8,008
14, 884
7, 964
14, 666
15, 450 . 8, 294
8, 423
15,685
8,618
15, 827
8,664
15, 765
8,717
15, 789
8,742
15, 784
8, 877
15,978
8,969
16, 022
9,003
15, 955
8, 975
15, 853
8,998
15, 856
8,859
15, 837
8, 885
16, 010
8, 940
16, 026

5,394
6,304
6,722 .
6,970
6,681
6,876
6,702
7,156
7,262
7,209
7, 101
7,072
7,042
7,101
7,053
6, 952
6, 878
6,958
6, 978,
7,125
7, 086

1, 150
1, 567
1,661
2, 165
2, 156
2,318
2,414
2,629
2,626
2, 631
2,571
2,403
2,281
2,228
2,326
2,471
2, 598
2,686
2,747
2,791
2,703

Trade

6,612
7, 189
. 8, 612
9, 491
9,438
9,524
9,411
9,474
9, 641
9,752
9, 896
10,443
9,592
9,554
9,713
9,627
9,683
9,732
9,653
9,623
9,777

Finance
and
service

Government
(Federal,
State,
local)

4,703
5,320
6,207
6, 515
6,545
6,573
6,653
6,664
6,643
6,578
6,543
6,522
6, 497
6, 496
6,536
6,610
6,673
6, 728
6,758
6,748
6,714

3,987
6,049
5,607
5,613
5,811
5,910
5,832
5,793
6,004
6,039
6,037
6,376
6,088
6,122
6,217
6,292
6,377
6,377
6,356
6,400
6,545

Transportation
and
Mining
public
utilities

2,912
" 3, 619
4,023
4,151
3,979
4,010
4,023
4,120
4,139
4,132
4,123
4, 125
4,072
4,082
,4, 112
4,132
.4, 137
4,161
4,177
4,189
4,180

845
917
852
981
932
904
946
950
946
939
938
937
932
930
924
911
915
927
909
928
925

1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagrioultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending nearest
the 16th of the mouth. Eioludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this table not comparable wife estimates of nonagrieultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 7) which include proprietors, selfemployed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which, are baaed on an
enumeration of population, whereas fie estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
' Preliminary estimates.
Source: Department of Labor,

8



AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
The workweek in manufacturing industries averaged 40K hours in September, about the same as in August, and % hour
less than in September of last year.
HOUF?S

HOU RS

PER WEEK

PER WEEK

NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING

DURABLE MANUFACTURING
44

44

42

^V^A^

40

\^x^

^X^

42

^V

40

38

r

KX^

38

e>

.x-^-

V

36

36

:

0

^ ,,, i,,,, ;
1948

I

::

1 ~-'
1950

1949

rf

0

?,„.,„,,:=

1951

1948

i",,,,,,
1949

::

1950

77
1951

RETAIL TRADE

BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
42

42

40

40

38

38

\/*s

^y

36

34
0

xvVW—-^-^^XV ^^-

7i , , , i , , , , r
1948

V/""X

L

/ N

/' ^ i\f

V
I

34

J

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 ! 1 I 1 1 1 1 1

1949

36

V

1950

1 1 1 1 1 1 t 1 1 11

0

1 1 1 1 1 J 1 1 ] 1I

1951

1948

t 111l i 1111 1
1949

i i i ii1 ii iii
1950

i i i I l t l I 1 i if
1951

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE : DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

[Hours per week, selected industries l ]
Manufacturing •
Period

1939 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1946 monthly average _•
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average
..
1950 monthly average
June
August
*
September
October
- *November,
December.
1951: January
_.
February
March _
April
_ .„
May«
June3
July 3
.
-. .
August _ _ 3 _
September
3

For production and related workers.




Durable
goods

Total

37. 7
44 9
40. 4
40 4
40. 1
39 2
40 5
40. 5
41. 2
41. 0
41 3
41. 1
41. 4
41. 0
40. 9
41. 1
41 0
40. 7
40.7
40. 2
40. 4
40. 5
J

38 0
46 6
40 2
40 6
40 5
39 5
41 2
41.3
41 8
41 7
42 1
41 8
42 2
41 5
41. 6
41 9
42 0
41 8
41. 8
41 0
41. 4
41 5

Not available.

•D.-fl J ' _ _ .
-DUiiQing
Nondurable construction Retail trade
goods

37 4
42 5
40 5
40 1
39 6
38 8
39 7
39. 5
40. 5
40 1
40 3
40. 3
40. 5
40.2
40. 0
40. 0
39 7
39. 3
39.4
39. 3
39. 1
39. 2

(3)
2

(2)
2

(2)
(2)

(2)

()

37. 3
36. 7
36. 3
37.0
37.6
36. 7
37. 4
37. 3
36.7
36.7
35.3
35.8
36. 8
37.5
37.7
38. 0
38. 1
(2)

()

(2)

40.3
40.3
40. 4
40. 5
40.9
41. 1
40.4
40. 3
40.0
40.7
40. 3
40. 1
39.7
39.9
39.8
40.4
40.9
40.8

Preliminary estimates.
Source: Department of Labor.

AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
The increase in average hourly earnings in manufacturing of almost 1 % cents in September was one of the largest
gains this year. This increase brought the September average to $1.61 an hour, about 1 3 cents above the average
of a year ago.
DOLLARS PER HOUR

1948

DOLLARS PER HOUR
1.70

1950-

1949

1951

* CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX ON BASE OF 1950*100,
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Production and related workers in selected industries]
All manufacturing
Period

$1. 095
1.335
1.337
1.333
1.350
1.415
1.465
1.468
1.451
1.456
1.469
1.476
1.484
1.473
1. 460
1.464
1.469
1.470
1. 485
1.483
1. 481
1. 484

$0. 698
1.059
1. 156
1.292
1.410
1.469
1.537
1. 522
1.539
1.562
1.577
1.587
k619
1. 630
1.639
1. 654
1. 659
1. 665
1. 681
1. 684
1. 685
1.702

Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on base J950a=100,
Not available.
........
* Preliminary estimates.
Source: Department of J^bor,

in



Nondurable goods
manufacturing

Building
construction

Retail trade

1950
Current
1950
1950
Current
1950
Current
Current
1950
Current
dollars dollars * dollars dollars l dollars dollars l dollars dollars l dollars dollars *

1939 monthly average
\
$0.633
1943 monthly average
.961
1946 monthly average
1.086
1947 monthly average „_
1. 237
1948 monthly average
1. 350
1949 monthly average
1.401
1950 monthly average.
1.465
June
1. 453
August__
1. 464
September
1.479
October
. ..
1.501
November
1.514
December
.
1.543
1951: January
1. 555
February
_. 1.561
March
1.571
April
1.578
May
1. 586
June 3 _ „ _ _
1. 599
July 3
1..600
August
1. 598
3
September
„ _ _ 1.612
1
2

Durable goods
manufacturing

$1. 208
1.471
1.424
1.392
1.410
1.484
1.537
1. 537
1.525
1.537
1.543
1.547
1.557
1.544
1. 533
1. 541
1. 545
1.543
1. 561
1. 561
1. 562
1.567

$0. 582
.803
1.015
1. 171
1.278
1.325
1.378
1.365
1.374
1. 379
1.404
1. 419
1.443
1.456
1.458
1.460
1.465
1.474
1.484
1. 490
1. 483
1.490

$1. 007
1. 115
1.250
1.262
1.278
1.338
1.378
1. 379
1.362
1.357
1.374
1.383
1.338
1.379
1. 364
1.361
1.364
1.366
1.378
1. 381
1.374
1. 372

8
(2)
(2)

$1. 848
1.935
2.031
1. 995
2.021
2.067
2. 082
2.093
2. 120
2. 135
2. 157
2. 163
2. 167
2. 182
2. 194
2. 195
2.222
(2)

(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
$1. 848
1. 955
2. 031
2.015
2.003
2.034
2.037
2. 040
2.038
2.022
2. 018
2.016
2.018
2.022
2.037
2.034
2.058
(2)

',8
(2)

$1. 009
1.088
1. 137
1. 176
1. 175
1. 192
1. 200
1. 199
1. 198
1. 187
1. 237
1.236
1.233
1. 249
1.252
1. 256
1. 260
1. 261
(2)

2
(2)
(2)
()
$1. 087
1.088
1. 148
1. 176
1. 187
1.181
1. 181
L 173
1. 168
1. 141
1. 171
1. 156
1. 149
1. 163
1. 160
1. 166
1. 168
1. 169
(2)

AVERAGE

EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES

Average weekly earnings of $65.29 in September in manufacturing industries were about 73 cents higher than in
August, reflecting the rise in the hourly rates.
DOLLARS PER WEEK

DOLLARS PER W E E K

"?i i i i I I i i i I T i i i i i 1 i i I i iT i i i i i I i i i . iT i i • . i 1 i

Ti 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 T 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M t T 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 iT 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1948

1949

1950

rr....i.....T

I.....T. ..,.i.... .T.....I.

, , , i ..... T ...... , , , , , , , ; . , i ..... ........ -,,^1

1951

* CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY CONSUMERS* PRICE INDEX ON BASE 1950*100.
SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Production and related workers in selected industries]
All manufacturing

Durable goods
manufacturing

Nondurable goods
manufacturing

Building
construction

Retail trade

Period

1950 Current
1950 1
1950 Current
1950 Current
1950 Current
Current
dollars dollars » dollars dollars * dollars dollars * dollars dollars * dollars dollars
1939 monthly average
$23. 86
43. 14
1943 monthly average
43. 82
1946 monthly average1947 monthly average
49. 97
1948 monthly average - _- 54. 14
54. 92
1949 monthly average
59.33
1950 monthly average
58.85
June
60.32
August
September
.
60.64
October
61. 99
November
62.23
TlArtArnhfir r
63.88
63. 76
1951: January
February
..
63.84
March
64.57
64. 70
April
64.55
May 65.08
June 3
64. 32
July _3
__.
64. 56
August
September 3 _ _
65.29

$41. 28
59.92
53.97
53.85
54. 14
55.47
59. 33
59.44
59.78
59. 69
60. 66
60. 65
61.42
60.38
59.72
60. 18
60.24
59. 82
60. 43
59. 61
59. 83
60. 12

$26. 50 $45. 85
68.47
49.30
46.49
57.25
52.46
56.53
57. 11
57. 11
58.03
58. 62
63.32
63.32
62.86
63. 49
64. 33
63.76
64. 11
65. 14
66. 39
64. 96
66.34
64. 66
68.32
65.69
67. 65
64.06
68. 18
63. 78
69.30
64.59
69. 68
64. 88
69.60
64.50
70.27
65.25
69. 04
63. 99
69.76
64.65
70. 63 • 65. 04

i Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on base 1950-100.
«Not available.
* Preliminary estimates.
Source: Department of Labor.




$21. 78
34. 12
41. 14
46. 96
50.61
51.41
54.71
53.92
55.65
55.30
56. 58
57. 19
58.44
58. 53
58.32
58.40
58. 16
57.93
58.47
58. 56
57. 99
58.41

$37. 68
47.39
50.67
50.60
50.61
51.93
54.71
54. 46
55. 15
54.43
55. 36
55.74
56. 19
55.43
54. 56
54.43
54. 15
53. 69
54.29
54.27
53.74
53.78

g

(3)

8

(2)
(*)
(2)
$68.85 $68. 85
71.67
70. 95
73. 73
73.73
74.57
73.82
75.31
75. 99
74.67
75.86
76. 19
77. 87
76.09
78.07
74.81
77. 80
74.20
78.35
71. 23
76. 14
72. 17
77.44
74.26
79.75
81. 83^ 75. 84
76.80
82. 71
77. 30
83. 41
78.42
84. 62
(2)
(2)

8
(3)

$40. 66
43.85
45.93
47.63
48.06
48.99
48.48
48. 32
47. 92
48.31
49.85
49.56
48.95
49.84
' 49. 83
50. 74
51.53
51.45
(2)

?!
(8)

$43. 81
43.85
46.39
47. 63
48. 55
48.55
47.72
47. 28
46.71
46.45
47. 21
46.36
45.62
46.41
46. 18
47. 11
47.76
47. 68
(2)

11

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Industrial production in October was estimated at 220 percent of the 1935-39 average, as a substantial increase in
machinery output was primarily responsible for the estimated 1% percent advance in the durable goods index, Nondurable goods production dropped about 1 percent, with further curtailment in the textile mills, to about the vacation
shut-down level of July.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
400

1940 41

42

43

44

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
400

45

46

47

48

49

50

J95I

1950

1949
^PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE. BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.

[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
* J
Period

1943 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average.
1949 monthly average
1950 monthly average
June
September
October
.
November- .
December ,.
1951: January
February „
March
, _
April
".
..
May
. .
June
July......
August _ 1
September
October * . .

Total
industrial
production
239
170
187
192
176
200
199
211
216
215
218
221
221
222
223
222
221
212
217
219
220

1Manufactures
Total
258
177
194
198
183
209
208
220
225
224
229
231
232
234
234
233
231
222
227
228
229

Durable
goods
360
192
220
225
202
237
237
251
262
260
268
268
271
277
279
276
274
266
268
273
277

Nonduraable goods
176
165
172
177
168
187
184
194
196
195
197
201
201
199
198
198
197
187
193
192
190

Minerals
132
134
149
155
135
148
151
163
166
160
157
164
158
158
164
165
165
156
166
169
168

Source: Board of Go vergers of tfce Federal ReseryrSystem,

12



WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORS
Steel mills, increasing their scheduled output during October, reached an all-time high rate of production in the week
ended November 3. In October, both electric power and bituminous coal output advanced above September levels.
Motor vehicles assemblies, after the first week of October, continued steady at almost 11 5,000 units.
MILLIONS OF TONS

MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS (DAILY AVERAGE)

3

3

STEEL - Scheduled output

I

I

I

1

1

1

I

I

I

BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

THOUSANDS

200

8

CARS AND TRUCKS

f"\

M if
4f-4f-

yjM

?

o r~

i
J

i

F

i
M

l
A

M

l

i
J

l
J

SOURCE: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, AND WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS.

Period
Weekly average:
1947
1948
1949
1950
June
- September
.
October
November
December.. . «. . ' _ „
1951: January
February
March
April »
May
June
July
_.
August- _
September October 3
Week ended:
1951: October 6
13
20_ .
27
November 3
10
_

Steel »
Percent of
Thousands of
theoretical
net tons
capacity

\ : s\
2
•

i

l
A

S

t
O

t
N

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Electric power, Bituminous
coal
by utilities
(thousands of
(millions of
kilowatt-hours) short tons) 2

Cars and
trucks
(number)

1,628
1,695
1,496
1,857
1, 898
1,917
1,976
1,870
1,890
1,996
1,941
2,048
2,061
2,053
2,018
1,964
1,971
2,020
2,046

93.0
94. 1
81.0
96.9
99.6
99.4
102.4
97.0
98.0
99.9
97. 1
102.4
103. 1
102.7
100.9
98.2
98.6
101.0
102.4

4,821
5, 300
5,500
6,183
6,038
6,360
6,522
6,615
6,852
6,866
6,948
6,827
6,722
6,557
6,804
6,699
7,092
7,012
7,175

2,058
1,948
1,427
1,673
1,762
1,892
1,976
1,820
1,900
1,980
1,685
1,662
1,734
1,638
1,726
1,706
1,747
1,779
1,864

92, 163
82, 340
120, 350
153, 546
192, 825
169, 631
174, 346
141,002
149, 905
133, 950
151, 052
170, 253
152, 948
140, 461
147, 582
112, 166
119, 302
115,721
112,430

2,051
2,035
2,041
2, 057
2,089
2, 019

102.6
101. 8
102. 1
102.9
104. 5
101.0

7, 156
7,160
7, 149
7,234

1,811
1,828
1,893
1,923

106, 359
114, 433
114, 347
114, 579
112,047

1
Weekly data are scheduled rates of operation; monthly figures are for actual output except latest month which is an average of the weekly estimates. Percent
of capacity based on weekly net ton capacity of 1,749,928 for 1947,1,802,476 for 1948, 1,843,516 for 1949, 1,906,268 for the first half of 1950,1,928,721 beginning July
2
3
1,1950, and 1,999,034 beginning January 1,1951.
Daily average for week.
Preliminary estimates.

Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Automotive Reports.
91487—51




3

13

PRODUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURES
Most durable goods production in September was somewhat higher than in August.
other nondurables continued at about the rates of a month ago.

Textile manufactures declined;

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERA6E (ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION)
300

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE (ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION)
300

eoo

1940 .42 44 46 48 SO

1949

1951

I95O

I94O 42

44

46

48 SO

1949

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.

I9SO

I9SI

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1935-39= 100, seasonally adjusted]
Durable manufactures
Iron and - Lumber
and
steel
products

Period

1943 monthly average
1946 monthly average- _
1947 monthly average1948 monthly average.
1949 monthly average.
1950 monthly average.
June
August
September
October
November
December
1951: January
February
March
April
;
May
..
June
July
AugustSeptember '
1

Preliminary estimate*.

14



.._

208
150
195
208
188
229
231
236
245
253
246
253
255
252
263
264
263
261
253
254
257

129
131
143
145
130
159
155
165
166
166
169
173
171
169
169
170
163
153
141
146
147

Nondurable manufactures

Nonferrous Textiles
Machinery metals and
and
products products

443
240
276
277
234
270
262
279
283
303
311
321
322
328
335
337
336
338
327
328
336

267
157
187
193
160
207
207
212
216
223
227
227
224
217
209
211
206
205
199
198.
201

153
162
163
170
147
182
173
189
191
197
193
194
194
194
188
185
190
185
160
170
165

Petroleum Manufacand coal tured food
products
products

185
173
193
218
209
229
222
238
243
251
253
263
272
269
269
255
263
263
262
265
264

145
149
157
159
163
164
164
168
167
162
161
165
168
166
167
168
167
165
165
164
163

Chemical
producta

384
236
251
254
241
263
261
269
271
277
280
283
287
288
292
296
298
302
305
307
307

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeservo System.

NEW CONSTRUCTION
Total new construction (seasonally adjusted) decreased by more than $50 million in October/despite a 3K percent
increase in residential nonfarm construction. During each of the past two months, total construction has been below
corresponding months of last year, although the total for the ten months of 1951 exceeds that for the same period of
1950 by almost 10 percent.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
3,000

MILLIONS Of DOLLARS
3,000
ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION

2,500

2,500

2,0 OO

2.OOO

1,500

1,500

PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL
(NONFARM)

N

UOOO

OTHER PRIVATE

1,000

___..

FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL

900

500

195!

I960

1949

SOURCES; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR •

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Total new
construction

Period
1939 monthly average
_.
1942 monthly average.
1944 monthly average
-- - _
1946 monthly average
1 948 monthly average
1949 monthly average
1950 monthly average >
June
September
..
October
November
«
...--..
December
1951: January
February. _
March
April
May

'June
July
.
August
September
October 2

.„

1
Includes public residential construction.
* Preliminary estimates.




683
1,173
438
1, 000
1, 798
1,883
2, 325
2, 316
2,461
2,479
2,498
2,439
2,501
2,572
2,672
2,645
2,523
2,495
2,455
2,452
2,453
2,395

Total
private

Private construction
Residential
Other
(nonfarm)

366
285
182
803
1,389
1,350
1,732
1,737
1,860
1, 860
1,833
1,807
1,825
1, 908
1,916
1,846
1,733
1,717
1,705
1,685
1,669
1,632

223
X43
68
335
715
691
1,050
1,072
1, 161
1, 134
1,078
1, 055
1,049
1,103
1,078
991
864
846
831
814
812
841

142
142
114
469
674
659
682
665
699
726
755
752
776
805
§38
855
869
871
874
871
857
791

Federal,
State, and
local 1
317
888
256
197
409
532
593
579
601
619
665
632
676
664
756
799
790
778
750
767
784
763

Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.

15

NEW HOUSING STARTS
New housing starts increased by 6,000 in September to 91,000 but remained well below a year ago.

THOUSANDS OF UNITS

THOUSANDS OF UNITS

300

ZOO

SOURCE* DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

New nonfarm units started
. Month
1947

January
«._
February
March
.
April
May
June
July
August
September .. . .
October
November
..
.
December

„ .

~ .
»

Total

.

Monthly average -

-

»Preliminary estimates.

16



4.

..

.„

1949

39, 300
42, 800
56, 000
67, 100
72, 900
77, 200
81, 100
86, 300
93, 800
94, 000
79, 700
58, 800

.

-

1950

1948
53, 500
50, 100
76, 400
99, 500
100, 300
97, 800
95,000
86, 700
82,300
73, 400
63, 700
52, 900

50, 000
50, 400
69, 400
88, 300
95, 400
95, 500
96, 100
99, 000
102, 900
104, 300
95, 500
78, 300

78, 700
82, 900
117, 300
133, 400
149, 100
144, 300
, 144, 400
141, 900
120, 600
102, 500
87, 300
93, 600

849, 000

931, 600

1, 025, 100

1, 396, 000

70, 750

77, 600

85, 425

1951

116, 300

85, 900
80, 600
93, 800
96, 200
101, 000
132, 500
* 86, 000
i 85, 000
» 91, 000

Source: Department of Labor.

EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
Nonfarm plant and equipment expenditures in the third quarter of 1951 are estimated at an all-time high, 45 percent
above the third quarter of 1950, with manufacturing facilities outlays 78 percent above those of the third quarter
last year.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25

I95I
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCES : SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

[Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal variation]
Period

1939
.
1941
"...
1945 . . . .
1948
1949
1950 3
1951
1949: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1950: First quarter
Second Quarter. „_
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1951: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter 3 3
Fourth quarter

Total *

_

'.

5,200
8,190
6,630
19, 230
18, 120
18, 560
24, 830
17, 850
18, 640
17, 470
18, 530
14, 800
17, 310
18, 800
23, 330
20, 660
25, 010
27, 200
26, 440

Manufacturing

1,930
3,400
3,210
8,340
7,250
8,220
12, 830
7,410
7, 520
6,770
7, 300
6,100
7,440
8,190
11, 160
9,820
12, 560
14, 610
14, 320

Mining

Transportation
Bailroad

380
680
440
800
740
680
870
760
770
720
700
580
640
720
790
730
810
980
940

280
560
550
1,320
1,350
1, 140
1,580
1,420
1,530
1,240
1,210
930
1,190
1,140
1,280
1,210
1,650
1,600
1,860

Other

280
340
320
700
520
440
520
520
550
540
480
320
360
490
580
500
540
470
540

Electric and Commercial
gas utilities and miscellaneous *

480
710
630
2,680
3,140
3,170
3,680
2,710
3,120
3,180
3,550
2,610
3,030
3,280
3,740
3, 010 .
3,570
4, 100
4,030

1,850
2, 490
1,480
5, 390
5,120
4,920
5,360
5, 020
5,150
5,030
5,280
4,260
4,650
4,980
5,780
5,380
5,870
5,430
4,740

i Excludes agriculture.
i Commercial and miscellaneous composed of trade, service, finance, and communication.
* Estimates for third and fourth quarters based on anticipated capital expenditures of business as reported in a survey made in late July and during August.
NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the
latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Figures for 1938^44 are Federal Keserve
Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other data.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000.
Sources; Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted).




17

NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES
In the third quarter of 1951, total net proceeds from new security issues declined seasonally. The total, however,
was almost 25 percent above the corresponding period of a year ago.
BILLIONS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

OF D O L L A R S

3.0

3.0

1939

SOURCE:

1943

1948

1949

1950

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION.

[Millions of dollars]
IProposed uses of net proceeds

Estimated
net proceeds

Period

New money
Total

1939 quarterly average
1943 quarterly average
1946 quarterly average
1947 quarterly average 1948 quarterly average
1949 quarterly average
1950 quarterly average 1949: Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
1950* First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1951* First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter 2

-

......
....

»Includes small amount for other purposes.
* Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.

18



529
287

1 689
1, 617
1, 740
1, 490
1, 565
1, 009
1, 299
1, 325
2,222
1, 145
1, 569
1, 730
2, 361
1 413

81
77
820

1, 148
1, 482
1, 152
1, 002
789
862
941

1, 251
1,
1,
1,
1,

771

044
461
987
260

Plant and
equipment
43
35
529
852

1, 055

931
741
669
596
759
948
571
687

1, 167
1, 422
970

Working
capital
39
42
291
296
427
220
260
120
265
182
302
200
356
293
565
290

Retirement
of debt and
stock *
448
210
869
469
258
338
564
219
438
384
971
374
525
270
374
153

INVENTORIES AND SALES
Sales, when adjusted for seasonal variation, declined at the manufacturing, wholesale, and retail levels during September. Inventories held by manufacturers, showed one of the smallest increases of recent months.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

TOTAL AND MANUFACTURING
MONTHLY AVERAGE

RETAIL

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

MONTHLY AVERAGE

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
INVENTORIES .

b*

*"

TOTAL INVENTORIES

n I I M

TOTAL SALES*
./

1950

1951

i i i i I i i i i
1952

I960

1951

I95E

I il l Iili ii

I I I I I I ! I I I i i i l i I i i i i

1940 42 44 46 48 50
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

-A

MANUFACTURING
INVENTORIES

IUFACTURING
SALES

Ml 1 ! 1 I 1 1I1
1940 42 44 46 48 50
*

I I i i i 1i i I i I 1 1 1 1 1
i
1950

1951

WHOLESALE, MANUFACTURING, AND RETAIL.

UJ
19! i l
&^

"**kf »'-M I I I I I I I

1940 42 44 46 48 50

V

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL

Total business l
Period

Inventories 2

Sales »

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Retail
InvenSales1
tories 2

Manufacturing

£SS -a—

Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted

1939
1943 _ _
1945
1946 _ __
1947
1948
_
_1949
1950
_
June
Aii gust _ _
September
October
November
December
1951" January
February _ _
March
April__ _ _ _
May___ __ _
June. _ _ _
July 7 7 , _ _ _
August _ _ _ _ _
September ?

6
(6)
(6)
()
(6)
(6)
55, 647
50, 921
60, 434
52, 828
53, 619
55, 146
57, 112
58, 954
60, 434
62, 050
63, 416
65, 240
67,361
68, 981
69, 442
70, 254
70, 073
69, 777

10, 803
21, 920
23, 852
27, 151
33, 157
36, 438
34, 467
39, 096
39, 229
43, 419
40, 800
41, 197
40, 611
42, 246
45, 899
44, 796
44, 205
43, 440
44, 737
43, 073
41, 798
43,090
41, 470

(6)
(6)
6
(6)
(6)
()
15, 828
14, 502
17, 793
15, 574
16, 130
16,599
17, 390
17, 704
17,793
18, 455
19, 044
19, 743
20, 346
20, 643
20, 282
20, 045
19, 429
18, 810

3, 504
5,270
6,503
8,541
9,967
10, 877
10, 893
11, 962
12, 059
12, 940
12, 362
12, 032
11, 767
12, 603
13, 578
13, 313
12, 616
12, 277
12, 420
12, 261
12, 090
12, 468
12, 292

11, 465
20, 098
18, 390
24, 498
28, 920
31, 734
28, 690
33, 253
29, 123
29, 253
30, 123
30, 947
32, 245
33, 253
34, 120
34, 657
35, 557
36, 908
38, 068
39, 009
39, 894
40, 576
40, 900

Department stores

InvenNew
Sales 3
tories 8
orders
(millions of Index 1935-39=100,
dollars) * seasonally adjusted

5, 112
12, 820
12,873
12, 617
15, 918
17, 630
16, 339
10, 069
19, 271
21, 413
20, 101
20, 684
20, 524
21, 048
22, 560
2£, 261
22, 605
2*2, 479
2,3, 434
22, 133
2,1, 324
fcl, 798
20, 800

(6)
(6)
(6)

13, 694
15, 622
17, 337
15, 791
20, 643
20, 698
26, 752
23, 485
23, 744
21,367
22, 792
27,940
25, 554
28, 220
23, 517
22, 830
22, 361
20, 790
22, 797
21, 300

102
155
166
213
255
291
270
295
276
283
309
329
332
329
338
349
368
377
365
353
353
342
335

106
168
207
264
286
302
286
304
298
335
320
291
290
325
362
326
291
302
301
302
309
319
312

1 Also includes wholesale, not shown separately in this table.
* Index of book value, end of period,
8
Not available.
2 Book value, end of period. Revised trade data not available prior to 1948.
* Preliminary estimates.
3 Monthly average for year and total for month.
* Data for new orders not adjusted for seasonal variation.
Source: Department of Commerce an4 Boarcl of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




19

MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
August exports increased 6 percent above July levels, ending a, three months1 decline. Exports under the Mutual
Defense Assistance Program were $115 million. Imports, which have been falling since March, suffered a further,
though slight, decline and the export surplus reached its highest level since 1949.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,600

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,600

1,200

1,200

400

RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, AND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIEn
*•* RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS.
^

AREAS.

SOURCES; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF ?°*E NAVY.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Minions of dollars]

Exports *

Period
1936—38 monthly average
1 943 monthlv average
1 946 monthly average
»
1947 monthly average
1 948 monthly average
1 949 monthly average
~ -.
1 950 monthly average
._June
•
August
September
- October
~>
December
1951* January
March
April

June

-

. -. »
•—

_
--

---..
-

-----

-_-_-

'
;.

'

August ~ _

-

-

--

--

May

July

-

'•
.

"----I

—

'

~-

247
1,080
812
1,278
1,054
1, 003
856
878
762
911
906
978
1,065
974
1, 076
1, 284
1,372
1, 355
1,293
1, 190
1,264

i Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas.
* Recorded general merchandise imports.
NOTE: Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy.

20



Imports *

Excess of
exports (+),
imports (— )
+40
+798
+400
+ 799
+461
+451
+ 119
+ 191

207
282
411
480
594
552
738
687
820
862
923
854
867

+ 124
+ 199

1,024
909
1,099
1,033
1, 018
929
893
879

+ 167
+ 185
+ 340
+ 337
+363
+296
+ 384

— 59
+49
— 17

—50

PURCHASING POWER
NATIONAL INCOME
National income advanced about 2 percent to almost $280 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) between the
second and third quarters under the impetus of increased wages and salaries and entrepreneurial income. Corporate
profits before taxes declined somewhat but when adjusted for inventory valuation changes increased slightly.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1939

1944

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1949
If PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.
SOURCE :

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED).

[Billions of dollars]
Total
national
income

Period

1939
1944
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950

-

. __

72.5
183.8
180.3
198.7
223.5
216.7
239. 0

Compensation of
employees

47.8
121.2
117.1
128.0
140. 2
139.9
153.3

Proprietors1
(business,
professional, Net interest
farm)
and rental
income

14.7
35.5
42.0
42.4
47.3
41.4
44.0

42
3. 1
2.9
3.5
4.3
4.9
5.4

Corporate profits and inventory
valuation adjustment
Total
5.8
24.0
18.3
24.7
31.7
30.5
36. 2

Profits
before
taxes

Inventory
valuation
adjustment

6.5
24.3
23.5
30.5
33.8
28.3
41.4

-0.7
-.3
-5.2
5 8
-2. 1
+ 2.1
-5. 1

31.9
37.5
45.7
50.3
51.8
45.4
41.5

-1.4
-2.7
-8.3
-8.2
-8.9
-2.3
+ 3.3

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1950* First quarter Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1951t First quarter _
Second quarter
Third quarter *_ _ _ _

219.3
230.6
245.8
260. 1
269.4
274. 3
279.6

142.2
148.6
157.3
165.2
172. 1
177.4
179.5

41. 4
41.8
45. 6
47.2
48.8
48. 1
49. 5

5.2
5.3
5. 5
5.6
5. 6
5.7
5.8

30.5
34.8
37.4
42.2
42. 9
43. 1
44.8

i Estimates based on Incomplete data; by Council of Economic Advisers. Data became available after chart was prepared.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).




21

CORPORATE PROFITS
After reaching an all-time peak in the first quarter of 1951, corporate profits before taxes (and before adjustment for
inventory valuation changes), according to preliminary indications, turned downward in the second and third quarters.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
60

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
60

SOURCE:DEPARTMENT Or COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED).

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
Corporate
profits
before taxes

Period

1939.
1944
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950

-.

1950: First quarter
Second quarter , „ . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter1951: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter *..

__

...

6.5
24.3
23.5
30.5
33.8
28.3
41.4

31.9
37.5
45. 7
.50. 3
51.8
45.4
41.5

Corporate
tax
liability

Corporate profits after taxes
Total

Dividend
payments

5.0
1.5
3.8
10.8
47
13.5
13.9
9.6
5.8
18.5
11.9
6.6
7.2
13.0
20. 7
7.6
17.3
11.0
9.2
22.8
18.6
Annual rates> seasonally adjusted

14.4
16.9
20.5
22.5
31. 1
27.0
24.5

17.5
20.6
25.2
27. 8
20.7
18.4
17.0

7.8
8.4
9.4
11. I
8.8
9. 7
9.5

Undistributed
profits
1.2
6. 1
8.1
12.0
13.5
9,8
13.6
9.7
12.2
15:8
16.7
11.9
8.7
7. 5

1
Estimates based on incomplete data; by Council of Economic Advisers. Data became available after chart was prepared.
NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment. See p. 21 for profits before taxes and Inventory valuation adjustment.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).

22



PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income declined from the seasonally adjusted annual rate of almost $254 billion in August to $253.3
in September, the first monthly decline since February. Decreases in proprietors' income and transfer payments
were partly offset by increases in dividends and labor income.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
300

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
300

1949

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
Period
1939
1944
1947
1948
1949
1950

Proprietors' income
Dividends
Business,
professional, and personal
Farm
interest
and rental
income
4.5
45.7
9.2
10.2
116.2
11.8
23.7
10. 6
122.3
15.6
26.8
14.5
134.9
29.6
17.7
16.0
134.2
13.0
2a4
17.1
146.4
13. 7
19.3
30.3
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
144. 6
30.2
12.3
18.4
14.5
31.6
150.8
ia9
153.3
14.3
21.6
31.0
156.0
15. 1
31.2
19.7
157.9
16.0
31.2
19.5
159.6
16.3
31. 8
25.0
161.7
33.0
17.5
18.8
15.9
163. 8
19.2
32.3
166.0
31.9
15.8
19.7
168.6
16.4
31.7
20.2
168.9
16.2
20.2
31.8
170. 2
16.2
20.0
31. 8
170.9
17.3
31.9
19.7
171.2
17.6
20. 1
32. 1
171.7
16.9
31.5
20. 7

Labor income
(salaries,
Total per- wages, and
sonal income other labor
income)

—
---

1950: June__
August
September
October- November
December. _ „
1951: January
February
March
April
May_ -- - __
June
July
August
September 2 _

72.6
165.9
191. 0
209.5
205. 1
224.7
219.0
227.7
231.5
234. 1
236.4
244.4
243.6
243.3
245.5
249.0
249. 8
251 0
252.4
253.7
253. 3

i Includes $2.7 billion National Service Life Insurance dividend, most of which was paid In the first half of the year.
> Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.




Transfer
payments
3.0
3.6
11.8
11.3
12.4
'15. 1

13.5
11.9
11.3
12.1
11.8
11.7
12.6
12. 1
12. 1
12. 1
12.7
12. 8
12.6
12.7
12.5

23

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Consumption expenditures gained $2.3 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) between the second and the third
quarterSj as a result of some recovery in nondurable goods sales and a rise in service expenditures, particularly rents.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

25O

250

1939

1944

1948

1949

1950

3

1951

4

I

Z

3"

4

1

2

J/ PRELtHINARY ESTIMATES BY COUHCH. OF £CO«OMJC APWSESS.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED].

[Billions of dollars]
Personal consumption expenditures
Period

Nondurable
goods

Total

1939
1944
1946
1947
1948_
1949.
1950-

67.5
111.6
14&9
165.6
177.9
180.2
193.6

35.3
67.1
85.8
95. 1
100.9
98. 7
102.3

Durable
goods

6.7
7.1
16.6
21.4
22.9
23.9
29.2

Services

25.5
37.4
44.5
49. 1
54 1
57.6
62. 1

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted

1950: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1951: First quarter
Second quarter—. ,
Third quarter * '
1

184.7

.
;_
_
__
.
_

isa 7

_

202.5
19a4

_

201.7
204. 0

2oas

Estimates based on incomplete data; by Council of Economic Advisers.
NOIK.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).

24



98.4
100.4
105.5
1049
111.5
109.5

in. 2

26.3
26.6
34.3
29.4
31.5
25.9
25.5

60.1
61.6
62.7
64. 0
65.2
66.2
67.3

CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING
According to preliminary estimates/ disposable personal income and spending rose about 1 percent between the
second and third quarters/ resulting in little change in the high saving ratio of about 9K percent.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

250

250

DISPOSABLE
PERSONAL INCOME-^

1952

If PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES.
?/ PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.
MMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED)

Disposable
personal
income l

Period

1939
1941
1942
1944.
1946.
1947
1948
1949
1950
1950: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1951: First quarter
Second quarter2
Third quarter

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

-

70.2
92.0
116.7
147.0
158.9
169. 5
188.4
186.4
204.3

.

197.3
197.5
207. 1
215.2
217.5
222.8
225. 7

_

.

Less: Personal Equals: Per- Net saving as
sonal net
percent of disconsumption
saving
expenditures
posable income
Billions of dollars
3.8
2.7
67.5
10.7
9.8
82.3
21. 9
25.6
91.2
24. 1
35. 4
111.6
12.0
7.6
146. 9
2.3
3.9
165.6
5. 6
10.5
177.9
3.4
6.3
180.2
5. 2
10. 7
193.6
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted

184.7
188.7
202.5
198.4
208.2
201. 7
204.0

12.5
8.9
4. 6
16.8
9.3
21. 1
21.7

6.3
4.5
2. 2
7.8
4.3
9.5
9.6

* Income less taxes.
* Estimates based on incomplete data; by Council of Economic Advisers.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because.of_rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as "noted.)




25

PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE INCOME
The advance in per capita disposable income was less than 1 percent in both current and constant prices in the third
quarter.
DOLLARS

DOLLARS

1,600

1,600
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

ANNUAL AVERAGES

I960 DOLLARS

1,200

1,200

CURRENT DOLLARS

400

I
1940

t

I
1941

1942

I
(943

|_
1944

1945

I
1946

I
I
!
1
_1
1947 1948 1949 1950 1951

£

»949

E NOTE 2 ON TABLE BELOW.

3

1951

i960

SOURCE! DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED).

OOUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Total disposable personal Per capita disposable perincome (billions of dollars)1
sonal income (dollars)1

Period

Current
prices

1939 .
1941
1942.- 19441946
._
1947
1948
1949
1950 ,

_ _
...

.

.

1952

'

.

-.
_.
. _
. . .

•

.

•

70.2
92.0
116.7
147.0
158.9
169.5
188.4
186.4
204.3

1950
prices 2
124.9
152.6
172.6
190.4
184.3
179.2
189.0
189.4
204.3

Current
prices

536
690
866
1,062
1, 124
1, 176
1, 285
1,250
1, 347

1950
prices 3
954
1, 144
1,280
1,376
1,303
1,243
1,289
1,270
1,347

Population
(thousands)8

130, 880
133, 377
134, 831
138, 390
141, 398
144, 129
146,621
149, 149
151, 689

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1950: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter .„
Fourth quarter
1951: First quarter.
Second quarter4
Third quarter

„ _

197.3
197.5
207. 1
215.2
217.5
222. 8
225. 7

202.4
200.7
204. 2
209.7
204. 2
208. 8
210.9

1,308
1,305
1,362
1,409
1,418
1, 447
1,459

1, 342
1,326
1,343
1,373
1,331
1,356
L 363

150, 847
151, 390
152, 068
152, 774
153,396
154, 010
154, 724

i Income less taxes.
» Dollar estimates in current prices divided by the price index of personal consumption expenditures. This price index was based on the Department of Commerce data, shifted from 1939 base.
.
» Provisional intercensal estimates of the population of the United States including Armed Forces overseas, taking into account the final 1950 Census total population count. Annual data as of July 1; quarterly data centered in the middle of the period, interpolated from monthly figures.
* Estimates based on incomplete data; by Council of Economic Advisers.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).

26



FARM INCOME
In current dollars, farm income is running about 15 percent above that of a year ago. Part of this increase goes to
pay higher prices for things bought by farmers; when adjusted for these higher prices farm income in September was
6 percent above that of September 1950, although marketings increased less than seasonally.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

J

A S 0 N 0

1951
r

**

INCLUDES CASH FARM INCOME FROM MARKETING AND GOVERNMENT PAYMENTS.
FARM INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY PRICES PAID BY FARMERS, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES, I950MOO.
COUNCIL

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.

Period
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1944 monthly average-,
1946 monthly average
,1 948 monthly average
1949 monthly average
1950 monthly average
June
August - - -«
September
--October „ _
November
1951* January
February
March
April
May
June

-

-

.

-

-« «. «
«

«---

-

-

-

•--.-

-

July

August 4 4
SeDtember

--

-

- --

-

-

-----

;

-

-

OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Farm income Prices paid by Farm income
farmers (incl.
(millions of
(millions of
interest, taxes,
current
and wage rates) 1950 dollars) 8
2
dollars) »
1950= 100
1, 508
724
48
1,887
52
981
2,484
71
1,764
2,637
81
2, 136
2,542
101
2, 567
2,407
98
2,359
2,349
100
2, 349
1,359
100
1,859
2,526
101
2,551
2,856
102
2,913
3,514
102
3, 584
3, 182
103
3,277
2, 588
104
2, 692
2,373
107
2,539
1,758
108
1,899
1,883
2,071
110
1,925
111
2, 137
1,940
111
2, 153
1,954
111
2, 169
2,389
2,652
111
111
2,992
2, 695
111
3,025
3,358

i Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments.
> Converted from the reported base, 1910-14 -100, to the base 1950-100.
> Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by fanners, interest, taxes, and wage rates, 1060—100.
* Preliminary estimates.
Source: Department of Agriculture.




27

CREDIT, MONEY, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS
Total loans and investments expanded $1.6 billion during September. This was the largest monthly rise since Ausust
1949. Loans increased about $800 million, compared with $600 million during August,
BILL'IONS OF DOLLARS
iso

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

ISO

TOTAL
(ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS)

INVESTMENT IN
' '
U S GOVERNMENT SECURITIES r

1939

1945
1948 1949
END OF YEAR

I95O

1949

1951

1950
END OF MONTH

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars)
All commercial banks
Total
loans and
investments

End of period

1939
.1945 _ _
-1947
1948
_ _
1949
_I960
June
August
September
October _ _ _
November _
December
1951* January
February _
March
__
April
May
June
July
August
September ^
October

__
-_-

Investments

- -

_ .- _
__--

_-

Bank loans

40.7
124. 0
116. 3
114. 3
120. 2
126. 7
121. 8
123. 3
123. 6
124.4
125. 4
126.7
125.0
125.0
125.7
125.4
125. 1
126.0
126. 1
127.0
128. 6

17.2
26. 1
38. 1
42.5
43.0
52.2
44.8
47.3
48. 9
49.8
51. 5
52.2
52.7
53.5
54. 4
54.4
54.5
54.8
54.6
55.2
56.0

' Commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans.
NOTI.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Oovemori of the Federal Reserve System.




Total

U. S.
Government
securities

23.4
97.9
78. 2
71.8
77.2
74. 4
77.0
76.0
74.6
746
73. 9
74.4
72.3
71.5
71.3
71.0
70.6
71.2
71.5
71.9
72.6
' Preliminary estimates.

16. 3
90.6
69. 2
62. 6
67.0
62. 0
65.8
64.2
62.5
62.5
61,7
62.0
60.0
59. 1
58.8
58. 5
58. 1
58.5
58.7
59. 1
59.7

Other
securities
7. 1
7.3
9.0
9.2
10.2
12.4
.11. 2
11.8
12. 1
12. 1
12. 1.
12.4
12.4
12.4
12.6
12.6
12.5
12.7
12.8
12.7
12.9

Weekly
reporting
member
banks—
Business
loans *
4.4
7.3
14.6
15.6
13.9
17.8
13.6
14.7
15.7
16.3
17.1
17.8
18.1
18.7
19.2
19. 1
19.0
19.2
19.0
19.5
20. 1
20.6

CONSUMER CREDIT
Consumer credit outstanding expanded about $100 million during September, compared with $130 million during
August. The increase was more than accounted for by a rise in instalment credit.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

25

25

OTHER CONSUMER
CREDIT

1939

1943

1948

1949

1950

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D i J F M A M J J A S O N D

END OF MONTH
SOURCE : BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars]
Total
* consumer
credit
outstanding

End of period

1939 1943
.
1946
1948
1949
1950
June
August .
September
October
November
December
1951: January
February
March
April
May
June.
July. 2_
August
September 2 .

. ..

.. ...
-_

-

__ __

7,031
4,600
8,677
14, 366
16, 809
20, 097
17, 651
18, 842
19, 329
19, 398
19, 405
20, 097
19, 937
19, 533
19, 379
19, 126
19, 207
19, 256
19, 132
19, 262
19, 356

Instalment credit
Total
4,424
2,001
4,000
8,600
10, 890
13, 459
12, 105
13, 009
13, 344
13, 389
13, 306
13, 459
13, 252
13, 073
12, 976
12, 904
12, 920
12, 955
12, 903
13, 044
13. 156

Automobile
sale credit

Other sale
credit and
loans

1,267
175
544
1,961
3, 144
4, 126
3,790
4, 107
4,213
4,227
4, 175
4, 126
4,056
3,990
3,946
3,934
3,980
4,041
4,061
4, 138
4, 171

3,157
1,826
3, 456
6,639
7, 746
9,333
8,315
8,902
9, 131
9, 162
9, 131
9, 333
9,196
9,083
9,030
8,970
8,940
8,914
8,842
8", 906
8,985

Charge
accounts
1,544
1,498
3,054
3,854
3,909
4,239
33 392
3,636
3,741
3,703
3,739
4,239
4,248
4,010
3, 938
3, 744
3,793
3,804
3,743
3,724
3,700

Other
consumer
credit l
1,063
1, 101
1,623
1,912
2,010
2,399
2, 154
2, 197
2,244
2,306
2,360
2,399
2,437
2,450
2, 465
2,478
2,494
2,497
2,486
2, 494
2.500

* Includes loans by pawnbrokers, service credit, and single-payment loans under $3,000 made by commercial banks. The single-payment loan item was
revised in November to exclude loans over $3,000. See Federal Reserve Bulletin for November 1950, pages 1465-6.
a Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




29

BOND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES
Yields in Treasury bills and long-term Government bonds declined slightly during October, while yields on corporate
bonds and interest rates on commercial paper showed small increases.
PERCENT PER A N N U M
3.5

PERCENT PER ANNUM
3.5

2.5

J F M A M J J A S O N D

1951
SOURCE

BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Percent per annum]
U. S. Government security
yields
Taxable
3-month
bonds,
Treasurv
15 years
bills * "
and over

\

Period

Average :
1939
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950

June
•
August
September
October
November
December
1951: January
February
March
April •
May
June
July
*
August
September October. _ _

1
2

- __ _ _

--- -

-

--

_

~~
_ _ ~~

- --- -

Rate on new issues within period.
Bonds in this classification were first issued in March 1941.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

30



0.023
.375
. 375
. 595
1.040
1. 102
1.218
1. 174
1.211
1. 315
1. 329
1. 364
1.367
1. 387
1.391
1.422
1. 520
1. 578
1. 499
1.593
1.644
1.646
1. 608

(2)

2.37
2. 19
2.25
2. 44
2. 31
2.32
2.33
2.33
2.36
2.38
2.38
2.39
2. 39
2.40
2.47
2.56
2. 63
2.65
2. 63
2. 57
2. 65
2. 61

Corporate
Aaa bonds
(Moody's)

3.01
2. 62
2. 53
2. 61
2.82
2. 66
2. 62
2. 62
2. 61
2. 64
2. 67
2.67
2. 67
2. 66
2. 66
2. 78
2.87
2. 88
2. 94
2. 94
2.88
2.84
2. 89

Prime
commercial
paper,
4-6 months
0. 59
.75
.81"
1.03
1.44
1.48
1.45
1.31
1.44
1. 66
1. 73
1.69
1.72
1.86
1. 96
2. 06
2. 13
2.17
2.31
2.31
2. 26
2. 19
2. 21

MONEY SUPPLY
The privately held money supply rose $900 million during September, At the same time U. S. Government deposits
expanded $1.3 billion, with the result that total deposits and currency showed the largest monthly gain since December
1950.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

200

200

TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY

175

r

TOTAL DEPOSITS ADJUSTED AND CURRENCY
(PRIVATELY-HELD MONEY SUPPLY)

150

125

125

DEMAND DEPOSITS ADJUSTED

TIME DEPOSITS

CURRENCY OUTSIDE B A N K S

U.S. GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS

TTT, 7 T i
1940 41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

A

50

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

O

F

M

A

M

1950

1949

END OF Y E A R

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

1951

END OF MONTH
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]

End of period

1939 ... _.
.
1945
....
1946 _- . >
1948
1949 1950
June
August
September _ ..
October. „ .
November December. . .
1951: January
February
March
April
May.
t*j
June
July
„
August
September 5

Total deposits and
currency

64.7
176.4
167. 5
172.7
173.9
180.6
174.7
175.5
176.3
176.3
177.4
180. 6
178.8
178.9
179. 9
179.8
179. 2
181.3
180.8
181. 6
183.8

U. S. Government
deposits *
1.5
25. 6
3.5
3.6
4. 1
3.7
4.8
4. 5
4.8
3.5
3.5
3.7
3. 6
4. 7
7.4
6. 5
5. 4
6.6
5.0
4. 6
5.9

Deposits adjusted and currency
(privately-held money supply)3
Total

63.3
150. 8
164.0
169. 1
169 8
176 9
170. 0
171. 0
171.6
172.8
173. 9
176.9
175. 2
174. 2
172.5
173. 3
173.7
174.7
175. 8
177. 0
177.9

Currency
outside
banks

6. 4
26.5
26. 7
26. 1
25.4
25.4
25. 2
24. 5
24. 5
24. 6
24.9
25.4
24. 6
24. 6
24.4
24. 6
24. 9
25.8
25. 1
25. 3
25.4

Adjusted
demand
deposits 8

29.8
75. 9
83.3
85. 5
85.8
92.3
85.0
87.4
88.0
89 2
90 3
92 3
91.6
90.6
89.0
89. 5
89.5
89.0
90.7
91.4
92.0

Time
deposits 4

27. 1
48. 5
54.0
57. 5
58. 6
59.2
59.7
59. 1
59.0
59. 0
58.7
59.2
59 0
59 0
59 1
59.2
59. 3
59.9
60. 0
60.3
60.5

' Includes U. 8. Government deposits at Federal Reserve banks, commercial and savings banks, and TJ. 8. Treasurer's time deposits, open
account.
a Includes deposits and currency held by State and local governments.
»Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection.
«Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System, but excludes interbank deposits.
• Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Syitem.



31

FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM
AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC
The cash deficit in the third quarter resulted from a seasonal decline in cash receipts and a counter-seasonal rise in
payments. The dominant influence on the payments side was the expansion in the national security programs.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

20

20

3*

1948

4

+8

t8
EXCESS

OF CASH RECEIPTS

u

in
EXCESS

-4

OF CASH

I

PAYMENTS

I
1948

2

4

3

I

I

I960

1949
CALENDAR YEARS

* PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT.

[Millions of dollars]
Federal cash
receipts from
the public

Calendar year
Calendar year total:
1946
1947
_
1948
1949
.
1950
Quarterly total, not adjusted for seasonal variation:
1949: First quarter
_~
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1950: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1951: First quarter
.
Second quarter „_
__ __
Third quarter * _
_
1

Preliminary estimates based on incomplete data.
Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget.

..

-

Federal cash
payments to
the public

41,441
44, 282
44, 922
41, 346
42, 419

41, 399
38, 616
36, 897
42, 642
41, 969

+42
+ 5, 666
+ 8, 027
— 1,295
+450

13, 122
8,814
10, 143
9,267
12, 235
9, 303
10, 494
10, 387
18, 051
14, 462
14, 100

9, 964
11, 389
10, 528
10, 762
10, 760
11, 105
9, 351
10, 754
11, 179
14, 521
15, 300

+ 3, 159
—2, 574
— 386
— 1,495
+ 1,475
— 1, 803
+ 1, 143
—367
+ 6,874
— 59
- 1, 200

Excess of receipts (+) or
payments (—)

NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.

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