Full text of Economic Indicators : May 1986
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99th Congress, 2d Session Economic Indicators MAY 1986 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1986 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) DAVID R. OBEY, Wisconsin, Chairman JAMES ABDNOR, South Dakota, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana) PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland) AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California) JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York) FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) DAN LUNGREN (California) OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine) BOBBI FIEDLER (California) SENATE WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho) MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia) ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York) PETE WILSON (California) LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland) SCOTT LILLY, Executive Director ROBERT J. TOSTERUD, Deputy Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS BERYL W. SPRINKEL, Chairman THOMAS G. MOORE, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.50 a single copy ($3.13 foreign), or by subscription at $27.00 per year ($33.75 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 11 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to revised estimates for the first quarter, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 6.3 percent (annual rate) or $62.0 billion. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 3.7 percent and the implicit price deflator rose 2.5 percent. BILLIO sIS OF DOLLAR S (RATIO SCAL E) 4,400 B LLIONS OF DO LLARS (RATIO S CALE) '4,400 SEASONA LY ADJUSTED ANNU/ I R A T E S ^* 4,000 4,000 —| ^--"1 ™~ GhIP ^— IN CURREN F DOLLARS —? 3,600 - **" „. 3,600 .«* '•-"-• . - V ^x— ^,' 3,200 •^""\ ---| ~*--^»-«s»«— ,"j-' ,. ,'"" 3,200 Gh IP IN 1982E)OLLARS .X— - /^^ 2,800 2,800 ^ 2,400 -/ 2,400 ^ 2,000 2,000 1,600 I 1 1 1978 1 1 \ 1 1 ! 1980 1979 \ 1 1 1 1981 1 1 1982 1 1 1 1983 1 1 \ 1 \ \ 1985 1984 council o SOURCE DEPARTMEN OF COMMERCE i \ \ 1,600 1986 ECONOMIC ADVISER [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982: HI IV 1983: I II Ill IV 1984: I II Ill IV 1985: I 11 1986: Gross national product 2,249.7 2,508.2 2,732.0 3,052.6 3,166.0 3,401.6 3,774.7 3,988.5 3,179.4 3,212.5 3,268.7 3,365.1 3,437.5 3,535.0 Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment 1,403.5 1,566.8 1,732.6 1,915.1 2,050.7 2,229.3 2,423.0 2,582.3 416.8 454.8 437.0 515.5 447.3 501.9 674.0 669.3 2,065.6 2,117.0 452.2 409.6 425.0 483.7 521.2 577.6 3,676.5 3,757.5 3,812.2 3,852.5 2,146.0 2,210.1 2,254.9 2,306.3 2,358.6 2,414.4 2,439.0 2,480.1 m IV 3,917.5 3,960.6 4,016.9 4,059.3 I' 4,121.3 Federal Net exports Exports Imports 4.1 18.8 32.1 33.9 26.3 -5.3 -59.2 -78.5 227.5 291.2 351.0 382.8 361.9 354.1 384.6 369.9 223.4 272.5 318.9 348.9 335.6 359.4 443.8 448.4 425.2 467.8 530.3 588.1 641.7 675.7 736.8 815.4 161.8 178.0 208.1 242.2 272.7 284.8 312.9 355.4 108.9 121.9 142.7 167.5 193.8 215.7 237.0 261.9 52.9 56.1 65.4 74.8 78.9 69.2 76.0 93.6 263.4 289.9 322.2 345.9 369.0 390.9 423.9 460.0 14.5 14.1 359.9 335.9 647.1 671.8 275.3 293.2 197.3 205.4 78.0 87.7 371.8 378.7 28.4 -2.6 -19.7 -27.4 344.6 345.0 358.0 368.8 375.4 382.3 391.4 389.5 345.4 321.9 316.2 347.5 377.6 396.2 669.3 673.8 681.1 678.6 287.1 287.0 286.0 279.2 209.4 214.5 215.8 222.9 77.8 72.5 70.2 56.2 382.2 386.9 395.1 399.4 412.8 447.6 453.3 461.7 228.3 235.8 236.2 247.5 249.5 256.0 269.9 272.1 410.9 420.3 428.8 435.5 84.9 81.7 95.0 112.6 442.8 457.1 467.7 472.5 3,899.0 3,945.0 4,016.7 4,063.6 477.2 836.6 285.6 314.8 318.5 332.9 334.4 337.8 364.8 384.7 357.8 57.3 79.0 82.2 85.4 421.9 439.5 451.0 481.2 696.5 735.1 747.3 768.4 777.2 794.8 832.5 857.2 3,311.4 3,370.6 3,440.3 3,509.5 3,584.4 3,688.7 3,743.9 3,813.5 269.0 88.7 478.8 4,083.9 -37.4 -65.3 -61.9 — 72.2 2,525.0 2,563.3 2,606.1 2,634.8 658.8 673.3 687.9 676.2 657.6 672.8 666.1 680.7 -42.3 -70.3 -87.8 -113.4 2,669.1 715.4 -99.8 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Govern ment pure] ases of goo s and senaces Exports ind imports of goods ind services 379.6 369.2 363.2 367.8 377.4 Total National defense Nondefense and 2,221.0 2,495.2 2,740.3 3,028.6 3,190.5 3,408.0 3,707.6 3,981.1 3,188.4 3,272.4 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS [Billions of 1982 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross privat e dome stic investrnent Ex sorts of goods 8 nd service Govern ment purch ases of gooc s and serv ices Personal consumption expenditures Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed Change in business invento- , 3,115.2 3,192.4 3,187.1 3,248.8 3,166.0 3,277.7 3,492.0 3,570.0 1,961.0 2,004.4 2,000.4 2,024.2 2,050.7 2,145.9 2,239.9 2,313.0 362.1 389.4 379.2 395.2 366.7 360.1 430.3 472.0 178.0 170.8 137.0 126.5 105.1 148.7 168.3 171.2 36.8 15.0 -6.9 23.9 24.5 -5.5 62.7 5.7 -26.8 3.6 57.0 49.4 26.3 -19.4 -85.0 -108.4 312.6 356.8 388.9 392.7 361.9 349.4 370.9 359.9 339.4 353.2 332.0 343.4 335.6 368.8 455.9 468.3 604.1 609.1 620.5 629.7 641.7 647.8 675.9 716.4 233.7 236.2 246.9 259.6 272.7 275.5 292.5 322.6 160.7 164.3 171.2 180.3 193.8 207.3 220.3 235.7 73.0 71.9 75.7 79.3 78.9 68.3 72.3 86.9 370.4 373.0 373.6 370.1 369.0 372.2 383.3 393.8 3,078.4 3,177.4 3,194.0 3,225.0 3,190.5 3,283.1 3,429.3 3,564.3 1982: HI IV 3,154.5 3,159.3 2,051.8 2,078.7 358.0 352.3 100.1 115.8 -9.4 -59.3 11.7 11.7 359.5 336.0 347.8 324.3 642.5 660.1 273.8 289.5 197.0 201.4 76.9 88.2 368.6 370.6 3,164.0 3,218.6 1983: I 3,190.6 3,259.3 3,303.4 3,357.2 2,096.4 2,137.2 2,161.8 2,188.1 337.5 346.9 363.4 392.9 127.2 145.8 161.6 160.4 -42.2 -3.7 1.4 22.6 22.5 -15.0 -36.2 -48.9 342.8 342.4 353.1 359.1 320.3 357.4 389.3 408.0 649.1 648.2 651.5 642.2 279.2 277.6 277.4 267.9 203.8 206.9 206.5 211.8 75.4 70.6 70.9 56.1 369.9 370.6 374.1 374.3 3,232.8 3,263.0 3,302.1 3,334.6 3,449.4 3,492.6 3,510.4 3,515.6 2,210.9 2,243.0 2,243.4 2,262.0 398.8 426.8 437.6 457.8 166,6 170,0 170.8 166.0 83.6 66.0 64.9 36.1 -60.6 — 90.4 -88.7 - 100.2 362.7 366.6 376.9 377.3 423.3 457.0 465.6 477.5 650.1 677.1 682.4 693.9 271.4 294.8 296.7 307.3 214.1 219.6 219.6 227.9 57.3 75.2 77.1 79.5 378.6 382.4 385.7 386.6 3,365.7 3,426.6 3,445.5 3,479.5 1985: I n m rv 3,547.8 3,557.4 3,584.1 3,590.8 2,288.6 2,303.5 2,329.6 2,330.4 457.2 470.9 473.7 486.5 166.7 169.6 173.1 175.5 15.8 15.1 -1.8 -6.3 -71.8 -101.1 -119.8 - 140.8 368.7 358.2 353.5 359.2 440.5 459.3 473.3 500.0 691.4 699.4 729.2 745.5 304.3 305.9 331.1 349.0 226.7 231.5 243.3 241.3 77.6 74.3 87.9 107.7 387.1 393.6 398.1 396.5 3,532.0 3,542.3 3,585.8 3,597.1 1986: I r 3,623.5 2,354.3 469.8 177.8 33.0 -130.3 368.4 498.6 718.8 319.7 239.1 80.7 399.1 3,590.5 Period 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 n Ill IV 1984: I n m IV Gross national product Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total Total National defense Nondefense State and local Final sales Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1982 — 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Gross ]Jrivate domestic i ivestment Personal c onsumption expenditures Period national product Exports an imports of goods am services Gove -nment pure lases of goo ds and sernces Federal Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Services dential Residential fixed Exports Imports National defense Nondefense State and local 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 72.2 78.6 85.7 94.0 100.0 103.8 108.1 111.7 71.6 78.2 86.6 94.6 100.0 103.9 108.2 111.6 76.9 82.1 89.2 95.7 100.0 102.1 103.9 104.7 71.9 80.0 89.4 96.9 100.0 102.0 105.4 107.7 69.8 75.6 83.9 92.6 100.0 105.7 111.5 116.8 71.5 77.8 85.1 93.4 100.0 98.9 99.4 100.9 72.6 81.4 89.4 96.6 100.0 102.2 106.4 108.4 72.8 81.6 90.2 97.5 100.0 101.4 103.7 102.8 65.8 77.1 96.0 101.6 100.0 97.5 97.4 95.8 69.2 75.4 84.3 93.3 100.0 103.4 107.0 110.2 67.8 74.2 83.4 92.9 100.0 104.0 107.6 111.1 72.4 78.0 86.4 94.3 100.0 101.3 105.1 107.7 71.1 77.7 86.2 93.4 100.0 105.0 110.6 116.8 1982: HI IV 100.8 101.7 100.7 101.8 100.4 100.7 100.5 101.0 100.9 102.7 100.8 100.7 100.4 99.1 100.1 100.0 99.3 99.3 100.5 101.3 100.2 102.0 101.5 99.5 100.9 102.2 1983: I 102.4 103.2 104.1 105.3 102.4 103.4 104.3 105.4 101.3 101.6 102.4 103.1 100.7 101.9 102.4 103.1 103.9 105.0 106.2 107.8 100.1 98.9 98.3 98.4 102.0 100.3 103.2 103.1 100.5 100.8 101.4 102.7 98.7 97.2 97.0 97.1 102.8 103.4 103.1 104.2 102.7 103.7 104.5 105.3 103.1 102.6 99.0 100.1 103.3 104.4 105.6 106.7 1984: I 106.6 107.6 108.6 109.6 106.7 107.6 108.7 109.6 103.4 103.9 104.1 104.2 104.5 104.8 105.5 106.6 109.2 110.8 112.5 113.5 98.8 99.2 99.6 100.1 103.6 106.5 107.6 107.9 103.5 104.3 103.8 103.2 97.5 98.0 97.3 96.7 105.2 106.8 107.3 108.3 106.6 107.4 107.6 108.6 99.9 105.0 106.7 107.5 108.5 109.9 111.2 112.7 1985: I n Ill IV 110.4 111.3 112.1 113.0 110.3 111.3 111.9 113.1 104.9 104.8 104.6 104.4 106.7 107.5 107.6 109.1 114.7 116.1 117.4 118.7 100.5 100.7 101.0 101.2 107.7 107.9 108.2 109.7 102.9 103.1 102.7 102.4 95.8 95.7 95.3 96.2 109.9 110.4 110.2 110.2 110.1 110.6 110.9 112.8 109.4 110.0 108.1 104.5 114.4 116.1 117.5 119.2 1986: l r 113.7 113.4 105.0 108.2 119.9 102.2 111.2 102.4 95.7 111.9 112.5 110.0 120.0 n m IV n in rv Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gr< SB national pr duct Period Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars 11.5 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982: III IV 1983: I II Ill IV 1984: I II 2.5 _ 2 8.9 9.0 11.7 1.9 3.7 7.4 -2.5 3.5 11.0 5.7 2.5 6.5 22 9.7 6.4 3.8 4.1 3.3 5.8 3.6 2.8 3.2 3.5 8.9 -3.2 4.2 .6 7.2 12.3 4.0 8.9 5.5 6.7 11.4 5.1 8.9 11.8 17.0 9.1 6.0 4.3 6.9 4.5 5.8 4.3 6.3 m IV 1985: I II Ill IV 1986: I r Implicit price deflator 2.1 .6 3.7 1.1 3.0 .7 3.7 Personal consumption e penditures Chain price index 8.7 9.0 9.4 6.3 4.0 4.3 3.5 5.6 4.1 3.3 3.5 4.0 4.1 5.2 4.4 3.8 3.4 3.5 3.5 2.6 3.7 2.0 4.7 5.0 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.0 3.3 2.9 3.3 2.5 NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. Fixedweighted price index (1982 weights) Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars 11.6 10.6 10.5 7.1 8.7 8.7 6.6 8.5 10.3 5.6 12.5 8.5 9.3 9.3 6.2 4.0 4.3 3.6 5.5 4.0 3.2 3.8 4.0 4.3 5.1 4.3 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.6 2.7 3.9 2.3 8.4 9.4 9.4 9.8 4.1 6.9 7.4 6.2 6.8 4.5 5.3 Implicit price deflator 8.8 10.5 9.0 5.6 4.0 4.3 3.4 6.3 2.4 4.0 3.5 4.3 2.2 4.2 5.0 3.4 5.1 3.7 4.0 3.6 2.7 3.7 2.4 4.6 1.3 2.3 4.2 3.8 4.4 5.2 3.8 4.2 3.6 2.7 3.8 2.6 4.6 1.4 9.2 10.7 9.2 1.3 4.6 5.7 3.3 2.1 5.3 3.4 8.0 4.7 5.0 4.2 5.9 .1 3.4 Fixedweighted price index (1982 weights) 9.2 10.9 9.2 5.7 4.0 4.3 3.4 6.3 4.8 2.2 -.2 1.2 4.4 Chain price index 3.9 4.1 3.1 6.2 4.4 4.2 3.4 4.8 2.6 4.6 .1 4.4 4.2 1.1 2.6 3.7 2.2 4.8 3.7 4.4 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Curren .-dollar cos and profit per unit o output {doliars) 1 Gross d omestic produ ct of nonfin ancial corporate business (billions o f dollars) Period Current 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982: HI IV 1983: I II m IV 1984: I n m IV 1985: I n HI IV 1986: I " 1 1,274.1 1,417.4 1,540.8 1,738.4 1,782.2 1,915.9 2,153.1 2,280.4 1,789.0 1,779.4 1,820.0 1,884.9 1,946.5 2,012.2 2,088.0 2,147.0 2,172.5 2,205.2 2,237.0 2,265.8 2,301.6 2,317.1 2,348.9 1982 1,789.8 1,840.4 1,807.9 1,837.2 1,782.2 1,866.9 2,039.3 2,095.8 1,777.8 1,760.2 1,793.1 1,842.5 1,891.2 1,940.8 2,005.0 2,043.0 2,048.2 2,061.0 2,077.3 2,087.2 2,106.9 2,111.7 2,127.3 Total cost and profit 2 Capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment 0.712 .770 .852 .946 1.000 1.026 1.056 1.088 1.006 1.011 1.015 1.023 1.029 1.037 1.041 1.051 1.061 1.070 1.077 1.086 1.092 1.097 1.104 0.073 .082 .095 .109 .125 .124 .119 .121 .127 .131 .128 .125 .124 .121 .119 .118 .119 .120 .120 .121 .121 .123 .123 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1982 dol- lars. 2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. Corpc rate profits with inventory valuation a nd capital consurr ption adjus tments Indirect business taxes 3 0.064 .066 .077 .090 .094 .098 .099 .102 .094 .096 .096 .099 .099 .098 .098 .099 .100 .100 .100 .103 .102 .102 .105 3 4 Compensation of employees Net interest 0.473 .523 .581 .632 .676 .679 .687 .710 .679 .685 .682 .678 .676 .680 .679 .682 .691 .697 .703 .709 .709 .719 .722 0.020 .024 .031 .037 .043 .039 .042 .041 .041 .042 .040 .039 .039 .039 .039 .041 .043 .044 .043 .042 .040 .039 .038 Total 0.082 .076 .068 .078 .063 .086 .108 .114 .065 .057 .070 .082 .092 .099 .106 .111 .107 .109 .111 .111 .120 .114 .117 Profits tax liability 0.037 .038 .037 .035 .026 .031 .035 .029 .026 .023 .023 .030 .035 .034 .038 .038 .032 .032 .029 .028 .030 .029 .025 Profits after tax 4 0.044 .038 .031 .044 .037 .055 .073 .085 .038 .034 .047 .053 .057 .065 .068 .073 .075 .077 .081 .083 .090 .085 .092 Output per hour of all employees (1982 dollars) Compensation per hour of all employees (dollars) 17.358 17.221 17.096 17.194 17.318 17.940 18.323 18.283 17.375 17.402 17.699 17.899 18.046 18.113 18.321 18.416 18.308 18.260 18.266 18.255 18.382 18.272 18.260 8.219 9.002 9.939 10.861 11.699 12.179 12.593 12.985 11.804 11.928 12.069 12.138 12.191 12.315 12.448 12.552 12.645 12.733 12.839 12.950 13.040 13.138 13.180 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor iureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period National income Compensation of employees1 Proprietor s' income with in rentory valuation a nd capital consurnption adjust ments Farm 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982: m IV 1983: I II Ill IV 1984: I n m rv 2,203.5 2,443.5 2,518.4 2,718.3 3,039.3 3,211.3 2,528.4 2,548.2 2,603.6 2,678.9 2,747.4 2,843.5 2,967.7 3,021.1 3,064.2 3,104.4 3,155.3 3,192.2 3,228.0 3,269.9 1,638.2 1,807.4 1,907.0 2,025.9 2,221.3 2,372.5 1,918.4 1,931.1 1,962.4 2,001.5 2,041.8 2,097.6 2,160.9 2,204.8 2,241.2 2,278.5 2,320.4 2,356.9 2,385.2 2,427.5 1986: I" 3,315.6 ' 2,462. 8 n m rv 1985: I 1 160.1 156.1 150.9 178.0 201.6 221.0 151.7 159.8 167.2 175.5 182.3 187.1 195.9 199.7 204.5 206.3 212.9 218.1 225.3 227.6 !5.6 ' 235.7 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Profits wi th inventory valuation adjustmei it and witho it capital consu nption adjus tment Total tion adjustment Nonfarm 20.5 30.7 24.6 14.3 32.1 21.2 22.9 28.5 18.7 11.8 6.6 20.0 44.4 29.4 27.8 26.6 26.5 22.8 12.2 23.3 r Corpora e profits wit i inventory valuation anc capital consunnption adjust ments Rental income of persons with capital Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment -43.1 -24.2 -10.4 -10.0 -5.4 -.6 -10.0 -13.4 -3.4 -9.3 -18.1 -8.9 -13.0 -5.6 -1.3 -1.6 .7 2.2 4.7 -10.1 6.6 13.3 13.6 12.8 10.8 13.8 12.0 15.8 13.3 14.8 11.9 11.0 11.6 11.9 10.0 9.7 11.0 13.8 14.5 15.9 177.2 188.0 150.0 213.8 273.3 295.5 154.3 146.1 173.4 205.9 228.4 247.6 268.0 277.8 271.2 276.2 281.7 288.1 309.1 303.1 194.0 202.3 159.2 195.0 232.3 224.6 161.6 150.7 163.7 190.5 207.3 218.7 234.4 241.8 226.5 226.3 220.6 220.9 233.2 223.7 237.1 226.5 169.6 205.0 237.6 225.3 171.6 164.1 167.1 199.8 225.4 227.6 247.4 247.4 227.7 228.0 220.0 218.7 228.6 233.8 !8.9 314.2 235.3 218.0 r r Capital consumption adjust- !7.3 Net interest -16.8 -14.4 -9.2 18.8 41.0 70.9 -7.3 -4.5 9.7 15.5 21.0 28.9 33.5 36.0 44.8 49.8 61.1 67.2 75.9 79.4 r 78.9 200.9 248.1 272.3 273.6 300.2 287.4 269.1 266.9 268.5 269.4 276.4 280.3 286.9 297.6 309.5 307.0 302.9 292.4 281.8 272.6 r 268.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Non durable g( ods Durablf goods Period con- Motor vehicles and parts Furniture Total nondurable expendi- Total durable goods IV 1,732.6 1,915.1 2,050.7 2,229.3 2,423.0 2,582.3 2,065.6 2,117.0 2,146.0 2,210.1 2,254.9 2,306.3 2,358.6 2,414.4 2,439.0 2,480.1 2,525.0 2,563.3 2,606.1 2,634.8 219.3 239.9 252.7 289.6 331.1 361.5 252.8 263.8 268.5 285.3 295.3 309.4 321.6 330.2 331.1 341.5 351.5 356.5 376.0 362.0 90.3 100.5 108.9 130.6 153.8 168.4 108.3 115.7 115.9 129.2 134.0 143.1 150.1 154.1 153.6 157.4 163.1 165.4 183.0 162.2 86.2 92.7 95.7 107.4 119.4 129.0 96.4 99.1 102.1 105.4 109.0 113.0 116.1 118.8 119.3 123.5 125.7 127.6 128.6 134.1 42.8 46.6 48.1 51.7 57.9 64.1 48.1 49.0 50.4 50.7 52.2 53.3 55.4 57.3 58.2 60.6 62.7 63.4 64.4 65.7 681.4 740.6 771.0 817.0 872.4 912.2 776.7 786.6 792.4 811.7 826.5 837.2 856.6 873.2 876.6 883.1 895.7 910.2 914.5 928.3 1986: I r 2,669.1 364.1 162.8 135.0 66.3 936.0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982: III IV 1983: I n in IV 1984: I II Ill IV 1985: I II m Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. household equipment Other Serv- Retail ales of new pa ssenger cars (mi lions of un ts) Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil 349.1 376.5 398.8 422.0 451.7 474.0 402.7 407.0 413.1 419.0 426.0 430.0 440.0 449.9 457.1 459.6 465.5 472.1 475.9 482.5 109.0 119.9 124.4 135.2 147.4 156.0 125.0 126.5 129.4 135.0 135.5 140.9 144.4 149.1 146.4 149.7 152.8 156.3 155.7 159.4 83.7 92.7 89.1 90.1 90.7 91.8 88.6 89.8 86.5 89.4 92.5 92.1 92.0 91.9 89.1 89.8 89.3 92.9 92.2 93.0 139.5 151.6 158.7 169.6 182.6 190.3 160.4 163.4 163.3 168.3 172.6 174.1 180.2 182.3 184.0 184.1 188.2 188.9 190.7 193.4 831.9 934.7 1,027.0 1,122.7 1,219.6 1,308.6 1,036.1 1,066.5 1,085.2 1,113.0 1,133.1 1,159.6 1,180.4 1,211.1 1,231.3 1,255.4 1,277.8 1,296.6 1,315.6 1,344.6 6.6 6.2 5.8 6.8 8.0 8.2 5.6 6.0 6.0 6.9 6.9 7.4 8.1 8.2 7.0 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.3 488.3 162.0 87.7 197.9 1,369.0 7.9 2.8 Food Other Domestics 7.9 7.6 8.5 8.2 9.4 Imports 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.8 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $39.4 billion (annual rate) in April, following a rise of $5.8 billion in March. The large increase in April was due to unusually large subsidy payments to farmers. Excluding these subsidy payments, personal income rose $8.1 billion in April and $11.6 billion in March. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,800 3,200 BILMONS OF DOLIARS*(RAT!O SCAIE) 3,800 3,200 1,600 1,600 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 800 800 " \ OTHER INCOME 400 400 ~.-—<T \ TRANSFER PAYMENTS 200 1978 1980 1979 11 1 1 1 11 1983 Ml I II 1982 1981 200 1984 ' SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1985 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] r Period 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan r. Feb r. Mar r Apr" Total personal income Proprietor ' income 3 age an Oth disbursements 1,812.4 2,033.9 2,258.4 2,520.9 2,670.8 2,836.4 3,111.9 3,293.5 1,119.3 1,252.1 1,372.0 1,510.3 1,586.1 1,675.8 1,834.9 1,960.5 3,288.6 3,271.2 3,280.5 3,290.0 3,295.5 3,309.9 3,330.8 3,347.9 3,384.3 1,940.5 1,946.8 1,958.5 1,959.8 1,969.3 1,981.2 1,991.5 2,003.6 2,022.2 3,386.3 3,401.7 3,407.5 3,446.9 2,027.0 2,034.4 2,043.9 2,048.1 income 107.7 122.7 138.4 150.3 163.6 179.5 193.4 206.4 203.5 204.8 206.1 207.3 208.5 209.5 210.5 211.5 212.4 213.3 214.3 215.3 216.2 27.0 31.7 20.5 30.7 24.6 14.3 32.1 21.2 40.4 14.4 13.8 12.2 11.6 12.9 17.5 21.0 31.4 15.7 19.1 12.0 44.4 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. 2 Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workers' injury compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Less: Persona] contributions for social insurance Nonfarm Persona! dividend income Persona] interest income 149.2 160.1 160.1 156.1 150.9 178.0 201.6 221.0 9.3 5.6 6.6 13.3 13.6 12.8 10.8 13.8 43.0 48.1 182.5 221.4 271.9 335.4 369.7 385.7 442.2 456.3 244.0 273.1 324.7 368.1 410.6 442.2 454.7 484.5 69.8 81.0 88.6 104.5 112.3 119.8 132.4 149.1 1,769.3 1,983.1 2,215.8 2,465.6 2,618.7 2,795.3 3,053.3 3,246.1 216.9 218.6 218.8 222.1 224.8 228.9 227.2 226.9 228.7 12.8 13.9 14.9 15.5 16.2 11.7 16.0 13.9 17.8 18.3 18.9 19.6 20.3 462.7 461.0 457.9 453.3 449.8 448.6 450.1 451.7 452.4 480.9 481.2 480.9 490.0 486.0 488.4 489.8 491.4 492.5 147.6 148.1 149.1 149.1 3,221.9 3,230.5 3,240.5 3,251.9 3,258.1 3,271.2 3,287.5 3,301.0 3,326.9 452.5 451.7 450.7 449.7 501.8 502.1 503.8 504.7 12 Farm Transfer pay- ^ ments 5 Bental income of persons 4 1 h 233.8 236.4 236.9 237.6 52.9 61.3 63.9 68.0 74.6 78.9 78.6 78.7 78.8 78.9 79.1 79.2 79.4 79.9 80.1 80.9 82.3 83.1 84.0 4 149.7 150.4 151.1 151.9 153.1 157.0 157.4 157.9 158.1 Nonfarm personal income 6 3,344.5 3,356.5 3,369.2 3,376.1 With capital consumption adjustment. Consists mainlv of sociaJ insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. 5 6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable personal income rose again in the first quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 6,000 6,000 4,000 4,000 1986 1978 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RAIf SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS , Period Personal income Equals: Disposable personal income Personal tax and nontax payments Less: Personal outlays l Equals: Personal saving Per capita disposable personal incc me Current dollars 1982 dollars 1,812.4 2,033.9 2,258.4 2,520.9 2,670.8 2,836.4 3,111.9 3,293.5 1983 1984 1985 261.1 304.7 340.5 393.3 409.3 411.1 441.8 492.7 1,551.2 1,729.3 1,917.9 2,127.6 2,261.4 2,425.4 2,670.2 2,800.8 Current dollars 1982 dollars Do lars B .llions of doL ars 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Per capita personal consurnption expemlitures 1,441.1 1,611.3 1,781.1 1,968.1 2,107.5 2,292.2 2,497.7 2,671.8 110.2 118.0 136.8 159.4 153.9 133.2 172.5 129.0 6,968 7,682 8,421 9,243 9,724 10,328 11,263 11,703 9,735 9,829 9,722 9,769 9,725 9,942 10,412 10,483 ercen real per capita disposable personal income „ . percent of disposable personal income Population, including Armed Forces abroad (thousands) 2 Per cent 6,304 6,960 7,607 8,320 8,818 9,493 10,221 10,790 8,808 8,904 8,783 8,794 8,818 9,138 9,448 9,665 3.8 1.0 -1.1 .5 — .5 2.2 4.7 .7 7.1 6.8 7.1 7.5 6.8 5.5 6.5 4.6 222,629 225,106 227,754 230,182 232,549 234,829 237,067 239,317 Seas onally adju sted annual rates 1982: III IV 1983: I II HI IV 1984: I II 2,683.6 2,729.2 405.0 411.1 2,278.6 2,318.1 2,122.6 2,174.9 156.0 143.1 9,786 9,929 9,720 9,749 8,871 9,068 2,752.8 2,805.7 2,852.4 2,934.8 407.4 418.0 404.4 414.4 2,345.5 2,387.7 2,447.9 2,520.4 2,205.2 2,271.3 2,319.0 2,373.3 140.3 116.4 129.0 147.1 10,024 10,182 10,412 10,693 9,793 9,846 9,982 10,145 9,172 9,424 9,591 9,785 9,114 9,195 9,283 1.8 2.2 5.6 6.7 3,033.8 3,083.5 3,144.2 3,186.2 423.6 433.6 447.5 462.4 2,610.2 2,649.9 2,696.7 2,723.8 2,428.7 2,487.4 2,515.2 2,559.4 181.6 162.6 181.5 164.5 11,050 11,193 11,362 11,447 10,358 10,399 10,451 10,441 9,985 10,198 10,276 10,423 9,359 9,474 9,452 9,506 1985: I H Ill IV 1986: I r 3,240.9 3,280.1 3,298.5 3,354.3 501.7 462.4 498.2 508.5 2,739.2 2,817.7 2,800.2 2,845.9 2,608.4 2,650.6 2,697.6 2,730.6 130.9 167.2 102.6 115.2 11,487 11,790 11,687 11,847 10,411 10,595 10,447 10,479 10,588 10,726 10,877 10,969 3,398.5 504.0 2,894.5 2,768.2 126.3 12,025 10,607 11,089 m rv 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). 2 232,851 233,466 8.7 1.6 2.0 — .4 6.8 6.2 6.0 4.9 5.3 5.8 7.0 6.1 6.7 6.0 9,597 9,639 9,723 9,702 -1.1 7.3 -5.5 1.2 4.8 5.9 3.7 4.0 238,469 238,985 239,605 240,207 9,781 5.0 4.4 240,706 8,812 8,904 8,960 -0.7 1.2 233,981 234,509 235,117 235,707 236,222 236,742 237,349 237,953 Annua! data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the first quarter of 1986, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income fell $20.9 billion (annual rate) and net farm income fell $18.4 billion. BILLIC NS OF DOLLAFiS * (RATIO SC ALE) BILL ONS OF DOLL ARS * (RATIO S CALE) 240 240 200 200 160 ---x>— ^-— ^\ ^^ ,„ v 1 ^ ~—^ r^.^ 1 -^ — \ S\ "1"-— X ""— GRC)SS FARM INC(DME 80 80 60 60 40 40 1 \ /\ / 1-*"~"""S "*-»^_ - \ t * i 20 (\ V / i / •i i/ \ ; ' 1 \ \ I \ I / \ ' 20 i * \l 1 \ \t r*'~ \ 1 1 t i *i N \ \ "*--s. ' / . \V i 1 S . NET FARM vICOME 1 ( *i V 10 \ 1 r i i U 1 1 1 1978 1 1 i 1 1 1 1979 1980 ! l l 1981 I ! 1 1983 1982 ! 1 ! 1984 ' SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMEN FOP AGRICULTURE 1 ! 1 1 1985 1 1 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] In come of farm ope rators from farmi ng (jross farm incom Period Total l Total 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1983: 1 n Ill IV 1984: I n in IV 1985: Ir n rr m TV 1986: I" 1 r Livestock and products Crops inventory changes 2 Production expenses Current dollars 1982 dollars 3 7.8 101.0 119.0 129.4 138.1 136.9 135.6 139.5 27.4 31.7 20.2 29.8 24.6 15.0 34.5 38.0 40.3 23.6 31.8 24.6 14.5 31.9 72.2 64.1 73.3 57.6 -10.6 -13.9 -12.9 -4.9 135.1 134.9 135.5 136.9 17.8 8.7 16.2 17.3 17.4 15.5 16.4 75.5 70.8 71.2 73.5 63.8 68.2 70.3 74.2 2.0 8.7 10.3 10.2 139.2 140.2 140.0 138.5 36.5 27.0 33.6 41.2- 34.2 25.1 30.9 37.6 140.1 134.0 134.3 164.2 71.7 66.8 68.0 72.1 68.4 67.2 66.3 92.1 -1.6 — 4.1 -5.2 137.0 134.9 132.8 130.6 32.9 27.0 16.1 45.9 29.8 24.2 14.4 40.6 132.6 69.5 63.1 -4.2 128.2 27.5 24.2 128.4 150.7 149.6 166.0 161.6 150.6 174.0 112.2 131.5 139.8 142.1 142.9 136.3 141.8 59.2 69.2 68.0 69.2 70.3 69.4 72.7 53.0 62.3 71.8 72.9 72.7 66.8 69.1 152.9 143.6 151.7 154.3 143.2 133.0 141.2 127.6 71.0 68.9 67.9 70.0 175.7 167.3 173.7 179.8 139.3 139.0 141.5 147.6 169.9 161.9 148.9 176.5 155.6 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. Net farni income Cas h marketing rece pts 3 2.1 5.0 -5.9 5.8 -1.4 -10.6 2.8 Income in current dollars divided by the GNP implicit price deflator (1982=100). NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Corporation loans and operator households. Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce. 8.5 CORPORATE PROFITS In the first quarter of 1986, according to preliminary estimates, corporate profits before tax fell $15.8 billion (annual rate) and after-tax profits fell $7.2 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320 SEASON ALLY ADJUSTED ANN JAL RATES - - 280 280 r--""'^ /I A - S' \ r^ PROFITS BEFC3RE \ ^-/ 7 - ^ Hi "\ 160 _S'^ V^"" '\ ^-—--^ - PROFITS AF rER TAX 1 ,.-- , ^-""'s' •s. _y , TAX LIABILITY ,\\ ,, \ " _. ^ •* ' ^"^X.--. -\ ~—-~ . / \_ *"\ 160 \, - ~ - ^ \ ,''" 80 \ \f ^N \ ^-~~~- X ». \ TAX^_y \ \V x ' '--' \ ""*"""*"»«, h"' 40 " y"' / \ \_ / "• _ UNDISTRIBUT ED PROFITS 1 0 I i \ 1 1 1979 1978 aOURCE: DEPARTMEN ! I I 1 1 1 1 1981 1980 1 1 1 1982 1 1 1983 1 1 1 1984 1 l 1 1 1985 OF COMMERCE I ! 40 0 1986 COUNCIL OF CONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Prt fits (before t ax) with inve ntory valuati on adjustraen t 1 Profits after ta X Do nestic indust ies T Nonfinancial Period Total 2 Total 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982: III IV 1983: I II m IV 1984: I II Ill IV 1985: I n m IV 1986: I" 1 2 214.1 194.0 202.3 159.2 195.0 232.3 224.6 161.6 150.7 163.7 190.5 207.3 218.7 234.4 241.8 226.5 226.3 220.6 220.9 233.2 223.7 235.3 180.4 159.6 173.8 131.2 164.2 200.1 192.7 133.0 121.6 136.2 161.1 174.4 185.1 201.0 212.3 193.3 193.7 189.4 189.3 203.0 189.1 199.0 Financial 27.8 21.0 16.5 11.8 22.7 19.2 22.5 12.4 18.7 22.0 25.0 22.4 21.2 20.8 20.4 17.2 18.4 19.2 22.5 23.8 24.7 27.4 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption t Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. Total 3 152.6 138.6 157.3 119.4 141.6 180.9 170.1 120.6 102.9 114.2 136.1 152.0 163.9 180.2 191.9 176.1 175.3 170.2 166.7 179.2 164.5 171.6 Manufacturing 87.5 77.1 88.5 58.0 71.3 88.5 76.6 64.3 46.8 52.3 64.6 78.9 89.2 94.2 94.9 82.2 82.7 77.3 73.4 79.7 76.1 69.7 Profits before tax Tax liability 257.2 237.1 226.5 169.6 205.0 237.6 225.3 88.0 84.8 169.2 152.3 81.1 63.1 75.2 93.6 85.0 64.3 59.8 58.9 73.8 84.1 84.0 99.1 100.6 87.4 87.4 83.4 82.3 87.4 87.1 78.5 145.4 106.5 129.8 144.0 140.2 107.3 104.3 108.2 126.0 141.3 143.6 148.3 146.7 140.3 140.6 136.6 136.4 141.1 146.7 139.5 Total Dividends sale and retail trade 28.7 21.6 32.5 34.6 39.1 50.7 49.4 32.9 33.6 32.6 40.8 39.9 43.1 46.8 52.7 51.5 51.8 48.7 50.6 53.6 44.6 51.0 3 171.6 164.1 167.1 199.8 225.4 227.6 247.4 247.4 227.7 228.0 220.0 218.7 228.6 233.8 218.0 50.1 54.7 63.6 66.9 70.8 78.1 83.5 66.6 68.5 69.3 69.6 71.1 73.1 75.3 77.5 78.9 80.7 82.0 83.1 83.9 85.0 87.6 Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. . Undistributed profits valuation adjustment 119.1 97.6 81.8 -43.2 -43.1 -24.2 -10.4 -10.0 -5.4 39.6 59.0 65.9 56.7 40.7 35.8 38.9 56.4 70.3 70.6 73.1 69.2 61.3 60.0 54.6 53.3 57.3 61.7 52.0 -.6 -10.0 -13.4 -3.4 -9.3 -18.1 -8.9 -13.0 -5.6 -1.3 -1.6 .7 2.2 4.7 -10.1 17.3 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to revised estimates for the first quarter, business fixed investment fell $12.2 billion (annual rate) from its fourth quarter level while residential investment outlays rose $5.3 billion. There was a $37.4 billion increase in inventories following a decrease of $4.3 billion in the fourth quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 800 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ,800 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 700 700 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES j \J f -100 | 1 1978 1 1 \ 1 1 1979 1980 ! 1 1 1981 1 1 ! I 1982 1983 1 1984 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1 i 1985 1986 -100 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] P . Period investment 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982: III IV 1983: I H Ill IV 1984: I II m IV 1985: I n in IV 1986: I r Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Anaivsis. 1^Ixed investmen t Change i i business inven Tories Nonresident! al T Total Total 454.8 437.0 515.5 447.3 501.9 674.0 669.3 441.9 445.3 491.5 471.8 508.3 607.0 661.8 302.8 322.8 369.2 366.7 356.3 427.9 476.2 452.2 409.6 461.2 469.5 360.7 354.9 425.0 483.7 521.2 577.6 467.7 489.2 524.0 552.1 338.0 343.0 357.3 386.8 658.8 673.3 687.9 676.2- 566.7 604.5 619.5 637.2 394.1 423.4 435.9 458.1 657.6 672.8 666.1 680.7 639.1 657.3 665.9 685.0 459.6 474.2 478.5 492.5 715.4 678.0 480.3 Structures 99.5 113.9 138.5 143.3 126.1 147.6 170.2 140.2 137.6 127.6 121.5 124.7 130.5 135.0 147.0 151.3 157.2 166.1 169.7 170.4 174.5 171.1 Producers' durable equipment Residential Nonfarm Total 203.3 208.9 230.7 223.4 230.2 280.2 306.0 139.1 122.5 122.3 105.1 152.0 179.1 185.6 13.0 -8.3 24.0 -24.5 -6.4 67.1 220.5 217.3 100.5 114.7 -9.0 -59.9 210.4 221.5 232.6 256.3 129.7 146.2 166.7 165.4 -42.7 -5.5 -2.8 25.5 259.1 276.5 284.5 300.9 172.6 181.0 183.7 179.1 92.1 68.9 68.3 39.0 293.5 304.5 308.1 318.0 179.4 183.1 187.4 192.5 18.5 15.5 309.2 197.8 7.5 .2 -4.3 37.4 7.9 -2.4 18.3 -23.1 .8 58.0 11.8 -12.4 -51.1 -33.7 1.8 15.5 19.4 71.6 61.2 62.8 36.4 14.2 10.8 3.1 19.0 39.1 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT According to the Commerce Department January-March 1986 survey, business spending for new plant and equipment for the year 1986 is expected to be 2.3 percent above the 1985 level. Spending in 1985 was 9.0 percent above the 1984 level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 500 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 400 400 ALL INDUSTRIES 300 300 200 200 r NONMANUFACTURING MANUFACTURING 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 1978 1979 1980 1982 1981 1984 1983 1985 1986 'Second Half _i/ SURVEYED QUARTERLY _i/SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADvrSERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Addenda Industries surveyed quarterly Nor manufactui ing M anufacturi ig All industries Total 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986* 217.76 254.96 282.80 315.22 310.58 304.78 354.44 386.41 395.13 78.58 95.92 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.15 151.84 39.46 48.50 55.36 59.81 55.35 53.08 66.24 73.14 70.99 39.13 47.42 56.96 66.73 65.33 63.12 72.58 80.01 80.86 1984: I II Ill IV 337.95 349.97 361.48 368.29 129.91 135.96 142.44 146.96 61.23 64.03 68.26 71.43 1985: m rv I II 371.16 387.83 388.90 397.74 145.65 154.33 154.04 158.57 1986: I 4 II 4 2nd half 4 390.66 400.68 394.58 150.28 153.76 151.67 Period Nonmanufactu ring Surveyed quarterly Mining Transportation Public utilities 139.18 159.04 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.26 243.28 11.22 12.81 15.99 21.39 20.05 15.19 16.86 15.88 13.89 13.36 16.05 16.60 15.84 14.79 13.97 16.52 17.97 19.02 31.50 35.63 37.74 41.21 45.43 44.96 47.48 48.74 48.50 83.09 94.56 100.14 110.24 109.63 114.45 134.75 150.67 161.88 68.68 71.93 74.18 75.53 208.04 214.01 219.04 221.33 17.24 16.38 16.82 17.00 15.29 17.01 17.49 16.28 47.08 47.94 47.92 46.92 128.42 132.67 136.80 141.13 129.91 135.96 142.44 146.96 208.04 214.01 219.04 221.33 69.87 73.96 72.85 75.87 75.78 80.36 81.19 82.70 225.51 233.51 234.86 239.16 15.66 16.51 15.94 15.40 16.22 17.50 19.09 19.06 48.46 48.47 48.14 49.89 145.17 151.02 151.69 154.81 145.65 154.33 154.04 158.57 225.51 233.51 234.86 239.16 71.11 72.71 70.06 79.17 81.04 81.61 240.38 246.93 242.92 14.11 14.30 13.57 18.90 18.95 19.11 48.62 48.80 48.29 158.74 164.88 161.94 150.28 153.76 151.67 240.38 246.93 242.92 Durable goods Nondurable goods Total 1 1 Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional sen-ices; social services and membership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May 1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nonmanufacturing surveyed annually") for data for these industries. 2 "All industries" plus the part of nonmanufacturing that is surveyed annually. 10 Total nonfarm business 2 Commercial and other 245.34 284.94 314.47 349.26 347.47 343.35 398.99 Manufacturing 78.58 95.92 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.15 151.84 Total 166.76 189.02 202.15 222 72 226.79 227.15 260.16 139.18 159.04 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.26 243.28 Surveyed annually a 27.58 29.98 31.68 34.04 36.89 38.56 44.55 3 Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate. 4 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in January-March 1986, corrected for biases. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE In April, seasonally adjusted civilian employment rose 104,000 and unemployment fell 77,000. MILL! DNS OF PERSO NS* 120 MILL ONS OF PERSC3NS* 120 EASONALLY ADJUSTE 3 '— . 116 ^ — — ^~1 •^n — 110 — ^"S—^-] _ 108 C^/ILIAN LABOR =ORCE -~ -_- 104 •'"' _ ^/ 104 — /,'-'' •-S 100 ^^ 100 ^"'" «•--*'*'"' — .- w- ^^| ^—_X"^^ — CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT 96 96 _ 92 X"X 12 - — ^-r^ "A 8 ——~~_^_ 4 ^ 12 — ^^ —, ^ IJNEMPLOYME^JT ' -^——^_ r- — 4 — Illllllllll Illllllllll 1979 1978 0 8 Illllllllll 1980 I l l l l l l l l l l I l l l l l l l l l l I l l l l l l l l l l Illllllllll Illllllllll lll|llll||l 1983 1986 1984 1985 1982 1981 0 •16 YEARS OF AGE A ND OVER COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Period 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: Apr May June.... July .... Aug Sept .... Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan *... Peb Mar Apr Noninstitutional population including resident Armed Forces NSA 166,460 169,349 171,775 173,939 175,891 178,080 179,912 179,501 179,649 179,798 179,967 180,131 180,304 180,470 180,642 180,810 181,361 181,512 181,678 181,843 T hor force . Forces NSA Armed Forces 1,597 1,604 1,645 1,668 1,676 1,697 1,706 1,702 1,705 1,702 1,704 1,726 1,732 1,700 1,702 1,698 1,691 1,691 1,693 1,695 106,559 108,544 110,315 111,872 113,226 115,241 117,167 116,958 117,044 116,726 116,976 117,069 117,522 117,814 117,832 117,927 118,477 118,779 118,900 118,929 ., ° Employment including resident Armed Forces 100,421 100,907 102,042 101,194 102,510 106,702 108,856 108,574 108,644 108,303 108,575 108,936 109,251 109,513 109,671 109,904 110,646 110,252 110,481 110,587 Nonagricultural Civilian labor force 104,962 106,940 108,670 110,204 111,550 113,544 115,461 115,256 115,339 115,024 115,272 115,343 115,790 116,114 116,130 116,229 116,786 117,088 117,207 117,234 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc. 2 Labor force as percent of noninstitutiona! population (both including resident Armed Forces). 3 Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population. Unempl >yment Civilian ernployment Resident Total 98,824 99,303 100,397 99,526 100,834 105,005 107,150 106,872 106,939 106,601 106,871 107,210 107,519 107,813 107,969 108,206 108,955 108,561 108,788 108,892 Agricultural 3,347 3,364 3,368 3,401 3,383 3,321 3,179 3,353 3,284 3,140 3,120 3,095 3,017 3,058 3,070 3,151 3,299 3,096 3,285 3,222 Total 95,477 95,938 97,030 96,125 97,450 101,685 103,971 103,519 103,655 103,461 103,751 104,115 104,502 104,755 104,899 105,055 105,655 105,465 105,503 105,670 Part-time for economic reasons 1 3,373 4,064 4,499 5,852 5,997 5,512 5,334 5,402 5,550 5,278 5,328 5,413 5,299 5,241 5,295 5,294 5,275 5,158 5,301 5,621 Total 6,137 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,384 8,400 8,423 8,401 8,133 8,271 8,301 8,161 8,023 7,831 8,527 8,419 8,342 15 weeks and over Labor force partici mtion rate (pe rcent) Total 2 Civilian 3 1,241 1,871 2,285 3,485 4,210 64.0 64.1 64.2 64.3 64.4 2,737 2,305 2,374 2,274 2,328 2,329 2,274 2,307 2,277 2,205 2,188 2,056 2,340 2,258 2,135 64.7 65.1 65.2 65.2 64.9 65.0 65.0 65.2 65.3 65.2 65.2 65.3 65.4 65.4 65.4 63.7 63.8 63.9 64.0 64.0 64.4 64.8 64.8 64.8 64.6 64.7 64.7 64.8 65.0 64.9 64.9 65.0 65.1 65.1 65.1 * Data beginning January 1986 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of change in estimation procedures. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In April, the seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate fell slightly to 7.0 percent and the civilian unemployment rate fell slightly to 7.1 percent. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 25 25 \ e \ ,-'\ 20 ,"*" / * f~ \"'\ v 20 I t BLACK / \ V* \y» TEENAGERS (16-19) >"\ \ \ t S'" V \'\ 15 * S / " ' BLACK Ah D OTHER 10 * 15 .' » V ~V,," ^ ^ ' V ' ^ 10 -?'•'" "'^ " lllllllllll 1982 ll!!!lllll! 1983 WOMEN 20 YEARS AND OVER ALL CIVILE N WORKERS WHIIE MEN 20 YEARS AND OVER , ninliiui mniiiiii iniilmn 1984 1985 lUliLLli 1982 1986 1984 1983 1985 1986 'UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemp' oyment ra te (percen t of civilian labor force in group) Period 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Unemployment rate, all workers 1 By sex and age • ]i All civilian workers Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over By s elected gron s By race Both sexes 16-19 years White Black and other Black Experienced wage and salary workers Married men, spouse present Women who maintain families Pulltime workers Parttime workers 8.8 8.8 9.4 10.5 10.4 9.3 9.3 6.3 7.9 8.5 11.0 10.9 8.6 8.1 5.8 7.0 7.5 9.5 9.5 7.4 7.1 5.8 7.1 7.6 9.7 9.6 7.5 7.2 4.2 5.9 6.3 8.8 8.9 6.6 6.2 5.7 6.4 6.8 8.3 8.1 6.8 6.6 16.1 17.8 19.6 23.2 22.4 18.9 18.6 5.1 6.3 6.7 8.6 8.4 6.5 6.2 11.3 13.1 14.2 17.3 17.8 14.4 13.7 12.3 14.3 15.6 18.9 19.5 15.9 15.1 5.5 6.9 7.3 9.3 9.2 7.1 6.8 2.8 4.2 4.3 6.5 6.5 4.6 4.3 8.3 9.2 10.4 11.7 12.2 10.4 5.3 6.9 7.3 9.6 9.5 7.2 6.8 io'.3 Labor force time lost (percent) 2 1985: Apr May June .... July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 6.9 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.8 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.3 6.1 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.4 6.4 6.2 17.9 18.8 18.6 19.3 17.5 18.1 19.8 18.4 18.8 6.3 6.2 6.4 6.3 6.1 6.1 6.1 5.9 5.9 13.8 13.9 13.2 13.5 12.8 13.7 13.5 14.1 13.4 15.2 15.4 14.4 15.0 14.1 15.2 14.9 15.6 14.9 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 4.3 4.0 4.6 4.4 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 10.7 10.8 9.9 10.3 10.8 11.3 10.4 10.0 9.4 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 9.7 10.0 9.5 9.4 9.0 9.3 9.6 8.8 9.0 8.2 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.1 7.9 7.9 7.8 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr 6.6 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.7 7.3 7.2 7.1 5.7 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.1 6.7 6.6 6.4 18.4 19.0 18.2 19.6 5.7 6.4 6.2 6.1 12.8 13.3 13.3 13.6 14.4 14.8 14.7 14.8 6.3 6.8 6.7 6.7 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.2 9.9 9.9 10.1 9.4 6.4 6.9 6.9 6.7 8.4 9.4 9.1 9.6 7.6 8.1 8.1 8.1 1 Unemployed as percent of total iabor force including resident Armed Forces. Aggregate hours lost by (he unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. 2 12 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In April, the percentage of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 5-14 weeks rose, while the percentages out of work for 15-26 weeks and for 27 weeks and over fell. The mean and the median duration of unemployment fell. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 REASO N FOR UNEMPLOYMEr- PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* n DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT A 60 V^ A/ \ x. — 50 JOB LOSERS ~*A .S"*^ \ A ~ 40 40 — 30 - iEENTRANTS 30 _ f f N w 20 20 , -'V N' «*v N! W ENTRANT i ^yS^S- 10 — - 10 k^.—/Vv~ •^ »*c""**'** ^-N/~^- JOB LEAVER! Illllllllll Illllllllll 1982 1983 1984 Illlllllll! 1985 iiiiiliini 1986 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] He ason for iineniployment: percent distributi m Dur ation of imemplojnnent Period Unemployment (thousands) I'ercent d stributio i State prograuns Numberof ks Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Medi- Job losers 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 43.1 41.7 36.4 33.3 39.2 42.1 32.3 30.7 31.0 27.4 28.7 30.2 13.8 13.6 16.0 15.4 12;9 12.3 10.7 14.0 16.6 23.9 19.1 15.4 11.9 13.7 15.6 20.0 18.2 15.6 6.5 6.9 8.7 10.1 7.9 6.8 51.7 51.6 58.7 58.4 51.8 49.8 1985: Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 8,384 8,400 8,423 8,401 8,133 8,271 8,301 8,161 8,023 41.9 42.6 41.6 42.1 41.7 42.0 41.6 42.7 42.1 29.9 30.6 30.4 30.0 30.6 30.2 30.8 30.2 30.7 12.2 12.5 12.4 12.9 12.8 12.5 12.8 11.0 12.1 16.0 14.3 15.5 14.9 15.0 15.3 14.8 16.1 15.1 16.1 15.0 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.7 15.4 6.8 6.7 6.8 7.1 7.2 6.9 7.0 6.9 6.9 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr 7,831 8,527 8,419 8,342 42.4 41.8 42.3 42.9 31.3 30.8 31.1 31.8 12.4 13.5 13.0 11.9 13.9 14.0 13.7 13.4 14.9 15.3 14.4 14.3 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.5 Job leavers Insured unemployment Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) 1 Reentrants New entrants 11.7 11.2 7.9 7.7 9.6 10.6 25.2 25.4 22.3 22.5 25.6 27.1 11.4 11.9 11.1 11.3 13.0 12.5 3,350 3,047 4,061 3,396 2,476 2,616 488 460 583 438 377 397 3,837 3,410 4,594 3,775 2,545 3,671 50.3 47.6 49.6 50.2 50.8 50.2 49.1 50.0 48.8 10.1 10.4 11.7 10.7 10.7 10.3 11.1 9.9 10.9 27.1 28.4 26.6 26.1 26.9 28.3 27.2 27.2 27.6 12.5 13.6 12.1 13.1 11.5 11.1 12.7 12.9 12.8 2,575 2,562 2,581 2,609 2,585 2,560 2,535 2,560 2,564 390 389 398 391 386 384 380 382 391 2,766 2,455 2,337 2,523 2,361 2,212 2,227 2,468 2,884 48.0 48.7 50.3 48.1 12.7 11.7 11.9 13.2 26.3 26.8 26.0 26.1 13.0 12.8 11.8 12.6 2,591 2,610 2,654 2,612 370 392 393 380 3,370 3,295 3,144 Initial claims Weekly average, th ousands 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFB), and railroad (EE) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 206,000 in April. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) MILLIONS OF PERSONS* /4 — 100 22 ^-^^ .^—r 90 ^ _-••"' SERV ICES ^\^ \ . ALL ^lONAGRICU LTURAL ESTABLISHME NTS _,-^~ .—1• L f^-~ ^' 20 .^•-•^ 80 — — 18 RET AIL TRADE V ^ •" 70 U- r--' \ h*"""" 16 — 14 yiii|||ii|i .s- ~V --^ _ L^-^ L -'"' GOVERN/<\ENT ~~" SERV ICE-PRODUC ING INDUSTRIES 60 — X Illllllllll Illllllllll ll|lll|llll LLLLLLLLUIJjI MA NUFACTURII'gc 20 50 ^X-1 18 — 40 ^^ ^ r^ iiiihini lll|||lll|| llllllll||l Illllllllll I I I I I 1 1 1 1 I it " T 6 CON STRUCTION \ GOC DS-PRODUC NG 30 NDUSTRIES yiiiiliii?j" lTf| 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 20 ' 1982 l||llllllll Illllllllll llllllllll|j 1983 1985 1984 4 "~~~~=ip=» 2 (|iili||iii| ' 1982 1986 f —a- = Illllllllll L seasonally adjusted] Se rvice-produ< ing industn es Goods-] roducing in dustries M amifacturin g Total 2 Construction 4,463 4,346 4,188 89,566 90,196 94,461 97,699 26,461 25,658 25,497 23,813 23,334 24,730 25,057 1985: Apr May.... June... July.... Aug.... Sept.... Oct Nov.... Dec 97,120 97,421 97,473 97,707 97,977 98,217 98,559 98,801 99,086 25,090 25,066 25,010 24,980 25,015 24,962 25,051 25,089 25,155 1986; Jan Feb '... Mar r .. Apr".. 99,496 99,656 99,834 100,040 25,300 25,251 25,161 25,182 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 89,823 90,406 91,156 Total i/urable goods Nondurable goods Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade 5,136 5,146 5,165 5,204 5,275 5,358 7,890 7,860 5,082 4,954 5,171 5,300 11,608 11,586 11,560 11,509 11,519 11,449 11,493 11,512 11,534 7,859 7,840 7,838 7,842 7,843 7,830 7,845 7,869 7,899 72,030 72,355 72,463 72,727 72,962 73,255 73,508 73,712 73,931 11,541 11,527 11,480 11,470 7,906 7,912 7,909 7,892 74,196 74,405 74,673 74,858 18,434 19,412 19,426 8,280 8,098 8,061 7,741 7,702 4,641 4,658 4,638 4,660 4,688 4,721 4,753 4,754 4,770 19,467 19,426 19,398 19,351 19,362 19,279 19,338 19,381 19,433 4,906 4,883 4,870 4,954 19,447 19,439 19,389 19,362 3,905 3,948 4,345 4,662 Total 63,363 64,748 65,659 65,753 66,862 69,731 72,643 12,760 12,187 12,109 11,039 10,732 11,522 11,566 21,040 20,285 20,170 18,781 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial dis- 14 ' 1986 1985 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers; Period '^ Illllllllll ll|llll|lll l|lll||lllh 1984 1983 "SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Total nonagricultural employment 'f— ' tail trade Finance, insurance, and real estate 4,975 5,160 5,298 5,278 5,268 5,550 5,769 14,989 15,035 15,189 15,179 15,613 16,584 17,425 5,278 5,301 5,295 5,302 5,282 5,317 5,327 5,342 5,350 5,733 5,748 5,768 5,773 5,791 5,805 5,830 5,833 5,848 5,357 5,344 5,348 5,345 5,872 5,886 5,897 5,920 Gover nment Services Total Federal 5,341 5,468 5,682 5,924 17,112 17,890 18,619 19,036 15,947 16,241 16,031 15,837 2,773 2,866 19,694 20,761 21,930 15,869 15,984 16,295 2,772 2,739 2,774 2,807 2,875 17,280 17,392 17,425 17,453 17,514 17,539 17,610 17,640 17,702 5,858 5,888 5,906 5,932 5,959 5,987 6,011 6,048 6,068 21,723 21,813 21,856 21,926 22,073 22,155 22,244 22,365 22,450 16,158 16,213 16,213 16,341 16,343 16,452 16,486 16,484 16,513 2,859 2,873 2,872 2,878 2,886 2,904 2,892 2,904 2,914 17,825 17,904 17,986 18,019 6,098 6,131 6,159 6,206 22,540 22,592 22,744 22,827 16,504 16,548 16,539 16,541 2,918 2,915 2,917 2,921 putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. * Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] \verage weekly hours Period Manufa during Total private nonagricultural s 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 35.8 35.7 35.3 35.2 34.8 35.0 35.3 35.1 1985: Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb r Mar r Apr". Average g!ross hourly earn ings Total Total private nonagricultural ' Overtime $5.69 39.8 38.9 40.1 40.7 40.5 3.6 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.3 35.0 35.1 35.1 35.0 35.1 35.1 35.1 35.0 35.1 40.2 40.4 40.4 40.3 40.6 40.7 40.7 40.7 41.0 3.4 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.6 35.2 35.0 35.0 35.0 41.0 40.6 40.7 40.6 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.5 40.4 40.2 39.7 Adjustc d hourly earnin gs index — total private nonagnc ultural 2 Percent chang e from a year Ind ex, Manufacturing $6.17 6.70 7.27 Current dollars 108.2 7.99 8.49 8.83 9.18 9.52 116.8 127.3 138.9 148.5 155.4 160.7 165.6 8.54 8.55 8.59 8.57 8.60 8.65 8.64 8.67 8.74 9.48 9.49 9.51 9.53 9.56 9.56 9.58 9.61 9.66 8.67 8.72 8.74 8.74 9.62 9.66 9.68 9.70 6.16 6.66 7.25 7.68 8.02 8.33 8.58 Current dollars 1977 dollars 3 8.2 100.5 97.4 93.5 92.6 93.4 94.9 94.8 1977 dollars 0.5 -3.1 -4.0 -1.0 .9 1.6 94.3 7.9 9.0 9.1 6.9 4.6 3.4 3.0 164.8 164.9 165.7 165.4 165.7 166.7 166.4 167.1 168.4 94.4 94.3 94.5 94.2 94.2 94.6 94.1 94.1 94.4 2.9 3.1 3.2 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 -1.2 -.9 -.8 -1.0 .0 .4 .1 -.4 -.5 167.4 168.5 168.9 168.8 93.5 94.6 95.3 95.6 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.5 -1.0 -.2 .7 1.3 1 -.5 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Percent ct ange from a year earlier, total private n onagricultura! 5 Avera ge gross weekly ea rnings Period Total arivate nonagnc ultural ' Current dollars 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb r Mar r . Apr" Manufacturing $203.70 219.91 235.10 255.20 $189.31 183.41 172.74 170.13 267.26 280.70 294.05 301.16 1977 dollars Current dollars 367.78 399.26 426.82 442.97 456.92 462.20 $130.20 138.62 147.38 158.03 163.85 171.05 176.40 177.31 7.8 8.0 6.9 8.5 4.7 5.0 4.8 2.4 0.2 -3.1 5.8 -1.5 1.2 1.9 1.3 — 1.1 381.10 383.40 384.20 384.06 388.14 389.09 389.91 391.13 396.06 465.88 460.60 454.96 459.85 459.75 466.17 464.65 459.27 458.56 176.42 178.20 177.61 176.72 176.42 177.60 176.71 177.00 177.56 394.42 392.20 393.98 393.82 469.32 443.95 449.07 465.50 177.00 176.99 177.58 176.68 2.1 2.4 2.8 1.8 2.6 2.4 3.0 2.4 2.6 3.0 2.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 -1.5 -1.2 -1.9 -.4 -.3 .1 -1.0 1.0 .7 $318.69 342.99 168.09 171.26 173,48 171.60 $249.27 269.34 288.62 318.00 330.26 354.08 373.63 385.56 298.90 300.11 301.51 299.95 301.86 303.62 303.26 303.45 306.77 171.19 171,69 172.00 170.81 171.61 172.32 171.62 170.86 171.96 305.18 305.20 305.90 305.90 170.49 171.27 172.63 173.31 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing. Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index for urban i and clerical workers (on a 1977=100 base). 3 Retail trade Current dollars 1977 dollars 3 1 2 Construction 5 9 .0 .9 Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places. Based on seasonally unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output pe r hour of all pe rsons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Hours of zall persons Outp ut ' Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Compens ition per hou r 3 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real com pensation 4 Unit lab ;>r costs per h aur Business sector Nonfarm business sector Implici t price defla o r 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 197 7 = 100; t uarterly ( ata seascm ally adjus ted 1978 1979 100.8 99.6 100.8 99.2 105.8 107.8 105.9 107.9 104.9 108.3 105.1 108.7 108.5 119.1 108.6 118.9 100.8 99.4 100.9 99.2 107.7 119.6 107.7 119.8 107.3 117.0 107.0 116.5 1980 1981 99.2 100.7 100.3 103.2 105.2 98.8 99.8 99.2 102.6 104.1 106.6 108.9 105.5 110.1 119.0 106.7 108.5 104.9 110.3 118.9 107.5 108.2 105.2 106.8 113.1 108.0 108.7 131.5 143.7 154.9 161.9 168.2 131.3 143.6 154.8 162.1 168.0 96.7 95.7 97.3 98.5 98.2 96.6 95.7 97.2 98.6 98.0 132.6 142.7 154.5 157,0 159.9 132.9 144.0 156.0 158.0 161.4 127.6 139.8 148.1 152.8 158.7 127.8 140.3 149.2 154.1 159.6 1986: lr 105.3 100.3 101.0 102.3 103.5 103.5 103.6 104.9 105.5 105.3 105.0 105.3 105.5 105.9 104.9 105.5 103.9 99.1 99.7 101.3 102.8 103.3 103.0 104.0 104.5 104.2 103.8 104.1 104.2 104.3 103.2 104.1 122.1 105.1 105.0 106.6 109.3 111.3 113.4 117.1 119.2 119.6 120.1 121.2 121.9 122.6 122.8 124.0 98.6 174.2 115.9 117.5 166.2 98.1 175.0 122.0 97.2 105.5 97.0 156.3 104.8 104.5 156.2 156.6 104.5 156.7 97.8 97.9 158.2 103.9 104.2 158.3 160.1 99.1 99.0 160.4 104.2 104.8 106.2 156.6 98.8 98.7 105.6 106.3 109.3 156.0 161.6 161.5 162.1 108.2 98.2 107.5 156.6 98.1 162.3 111.8 98.2 164.1 109.5 110.5 158.4 98.3 164.0 113.8 166.1 117.1 158.4 98.1 98.3 165.9 111.6 112.6 114.0 158.7 98.1 98.2 167.4 113.0 119.2 167.5 98.0 98.2 169.1 113.6 114.7 119.5 160.6 168.8 97.9 170.1 114.4 115.6 120.0 98.1 170.4 162.3 172.1 116.3 98.3 98.5 172.4 115.1 121.1 163.8 98.2 98.5 173.7 115.6 116.9 121.8 165.2 174.3 98.3 98.9 175.0 176.1 115.8 117.5 122.6 166.3 98.0 98.7 176.4 117.1 118.9 122.7 169.3 177.6 98.2 177.3 L__9jTL 178.2 119.2 124.1 ^iil^L 168.9 Pe "cent chan ge; quarte rly data at seasonal!y adjusted annual ra tes 167.7 157.6 158.6 158.3 157.2 157.1 159.1 159.6 160.1 162.0 163.9 165.3 166.8 167.8 170.9 170.3 163.1 149.3 150.2 151.1 152.0 153.1 154.9 156.6 158.0 159.4 160.8 161.6 162.7 163.5 164.6 165.4 164.8 150.3 151.4 152.3 153.6 154.2 156.1 157.1 158.8 160.5 161.9 163.0 164.5 165.5 166.3 167.4 1978 1979 0.8 -1.2 0.8 -1.6 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 -.3 1.5 ^ 2.9 2.0 1.0 -.6 3.4 1.5 1985 1982: IH IT 1983: I II Ill IV 1984: I .1 .3 3.0 5.1 4.9 .0 .4 5.1 2.5 -.8 -.3 .0 2.4 6.5 6.1 2.0 -1.1 3.6 2.2 -1.3 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982: m IV 1983: I n in IV 1984: I II m IV 1985: I n in IV n in IV 1985: I n m IV 1986: I r -1.3 1.0 .8 1.6 -3.9 2.5 ^. -1.3 1.0 .2 .4 -4.1 3.6 105.8 107.5 114.2 5.8 1.9 5.9 1.8 4.9 3.2 5.1 3.5 8.5 9.7 8.6 9.5 0.8 — 1.4 0.9 -1.6 7.7 11.1 7.7 11.2 7.3 9.1 7.0 8.9 -1.1 2.1 3.1 4.4 8.1 -1.1 1.7 -3.3 5.1 7.9 -.8 .7 — .7 10.5 9.2 7.8 4.5 3.9 10.5 9.4 7.7 4.7 3.7 -2.7 -1.0 1.6 1.3 .3 -2.7 10.8 7.7 8.2 1.6 1.9 11.0 8.3 8.4 1.2 2.2 9.0 9.6 5.9 3.2 3.9 9.7 9.7 6.3 3,3 3.6 2.6 -3.1 — .4 6.3 10.5 7.4 7.9 13.6 7.5 1.3 1.7 3.6 2.3 2.5 .4 4.2 2.6 -3.4 -1.2 7.6 12.2 9.6 7.3 12.1 7.2 1.2 1.8 3.6 2.3 2.6 .6 4.5 4.0 7.5 4.5 4.7 3.4 1.5 5.1 4.9 3.3 4.1 3.1 4.8 4.4 4.2 3.4 1.4 3.7 7.5 5.0 5.6 3.1 1.8 4.0 4.9 3.6 3.4 3.2 4.7 3.8 2.8 3.2 2.2 .4 .1 2.9 4.4 -.9 -2.6 .8 2 -.3 .2 -.6 1.5 .4 1.6 -.9 .0 .1 .2 3.4 5.3 -1.1 -2.3 -.2 _^2 .0 — .4 -.4 1.4 -.2 .3 -1.0 3.9 7.2 1.5 -.3 -1.4 1.5 4.7 -.2 .8 4.9 4.5 3.7 3.5 2.5 7.5 -1.0 3.9 7.6 2.6 -.9 2.8 _ 2 5.2 1.2 1.3 4.8 4.6 3.6 3.6 2.4 7.6 — 1.4 2.8 5.6 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.8 4.9 4.4 3.7 3.6 3.5 2.1 2.8 2.0 2.7 1.9 3.3 5.7 3.0 2.4 3.3 1.7 5.1 2.4 4.4 4.4 3.6 2.7 3.7 2.6 1.8 2.6 -2.7 1.5 6.0 2.5 -3.4 -3.3 1.1 5.3 7.4 7.5 8.1 4.9 2.1 3.1 2.5 1.5 .9 4.5 1.7 .7 -2.7 1.6 6.3 2.9 -3.4 -3.5 1.1 5.8 7.5 8.6 8.2 4.9 2.5 3.1 2.6 2.1 2.1 4.8 .9 1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector m 1982 dollars. 2 Hours of aJl persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed. 16 4 .9 1.5 1.5 -.6 •7 Hourly compensation divided bv the consumer price index for all urban consumers. Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 5 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose 0.2 percent in April, following a decline of 0.7 percent in March. The index for April was 0.8 percent above its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) 140 MV TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 200 __ FINAL P RODUCTS 120 DEF ENSE AND- 180 160 • 100 Illllllllll I""1' Illlltlllll 140 -~^- 140 — MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION DURABLE 120 ^X"*^1^ •"BUSINESS ^"""1 EQUIPMEN1 SPACE EC3UIPMENT - r *&* +<^ .X j ^s~- ' ' *"•»* CONSUMER GOODS ./* 120 ^•w 100 H-iiH,,,, 1 1 IM l l T M 1 ,,,„,,„„ 100 miilmn MUM 1 1 1 in PERCENT* 90 -MANUFACTURING CAPACITY JTILIZATIO N RATE _ SXB 80 70 100 ~~\ 60 1982 1 982 1986 I iitnlfii|i 1 983 1984 IIMlilflil 1985 I f t If } til f B 1986 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE; BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] To tal Industry proc uction indexes , 1977 = 100 indus trial produ ction Period Index, 1977 = 100 1977 proportion 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan r Feb T Mar r Apr" 1 Output as pert'ent of capacity. 100,0 106.5 110.7 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.8 124.5 124.1 124.1 124.3 124.1 125.2 125.1 124.4 125.4 126.4 126.7 125.7 124.9 125.1 Capacity utilization rate, pt rcent J Manufacturing Percent change from year earlier 6.5 3.9 -1.9 2.2 -7.1 5.9 11.5 2.2 2.8 2.3 1.6 .7 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.6 2.5 2.5 1.6 .7 .8 Mining Durable Total 84.21 107.1 111.5 108.2 110.5 102.2 110.2 123.9 127.1 126.6 126.6 126.7 126.9 128.2 127.7 127.2 128.4 129.1 129.8 129.0 128.1 128.7 49.10 108.2 113.9 109.1 111.1 99.9 107.7 124.8 128.2 128.2 127.9 127.6 127.9 129.4 128.3 127.7 129.2 129.9 130.4 129.3 127.8 128.8 Utilities Nondurable 35.11 105.5 108.2 107.0 109.7 105.5 113.7 122.5 125.6 124.3 124.7 125.5 125.6 126.6 126.9 126.4 127.3 128.0 129.1 128.7 128.4 128.6 9.83 103.6 106.4 112.4 117.5 109.3 102.9 110.9 109.0 109.6 109.8 110.6 108.7 108.3 108.4 108.4 106.9 107.4 107.4 105.3 103.2 102.0 5.96 103.1 105.9 107.3 107.1 104.8 105.2 110.9 113.4 113.6 113.7 113.4 110.7 110.3 113.2 112.4 112.2 116.5 114.6 112.4 114.2 114.0 Manufacturing Industrial materials 84.2 84.6 86.3 79.3 78.3 70.3 74.0 80.8 80.3 80.5 80.3 80.1 80.1 80.7 80.1 79.6 80.2 80.4 80.7 80.0 79.2 79.4 87.1 81.1 81.1 71.7 75.3 82.3 80.2 80.9 80.1 80.1 79.5 79.9 79.5 79.3 79.2 80.1 80.2 79.7 79.1 79.0 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1977=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Produ ts Mate rials ?inal produc ts Internlediate pro lucts C onsumer goods Equipment Period Total Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total » 1977 proportion 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 44.77 106.9 111.0 112.2 115.2 109.5 114.7 127.8 132.0 25.52 104.3 103.9 102.7 104.1 101.4 109.3 118.2 120.7 6.89 103.7 99.9 88.4 89.7 82.9 98.5 112.6 112.9 18.63 104.5 105.4 108.1 109.3 108.3 113.3 120.2 123.6 19.25 110.3 120.4 1985: Apr Mav June Julv Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 131.3 131.7 131.6 131.8 133.3 133.3 131.9 133.7 134.4 119.5 120.0 120.4 120.1 121.5 121.8 120.8 122.7 124.2 111.5 111.8 112.0 111.3 114.0 112.9 111.4 115.5 116.8 122.5 123.1 123.5 123.4 124.2 125.1 124.3 125.4 127.0 146.9 147.1 146.6 147.3 149.0 148,6 146.6 148.3 1986: Jan ' Feb r . Mar r Apr " 134.4 132.9 131.6 132.1 123.9 123.2 122.2 123.0 116.6 116.3 113.2 115.5 126.5 125.7 125.5 125.8 148.4 145.8 144.2 144.2 1 124.7 129.9 120.2 121.7 140.5 147.0 147,9 Business Defense and space equipment 14.34 112.2 124.7 125.1 127.6 113.6 115.4 134.9 141.2 3.67 101.2 105.6 115.4 119.8 133.0 143.1 157.9 173.6 12.94 106.9 110.8 106.9 107.3 101.7 111.2 142.0 141.9 140.7 141.3 143.0 142.2 139.6 141.7 141.4 142.9 141.5 140.2 141.1 Total Construction supplies Busi- Total Energy supphcs 124.9 130.6 5.95 106.9 108.7 100.6 98.6 88.3 100.6 114.0 118.9 6.99 106.9 112.7 112.3 114.7 113.1 120.3 134.2 140.5 42.28 105.9 110.3 105.3 107.7 96.7 102.8 114.6 114.7 11.69 101.1 104.1 105.5 104.7 101.2 98.4 104.0 104.4 170.1 171.2 173.4 173.9 175.5 177.5 178.7 180.7 180.7 129.3 130.3 131.4 130.7 132.0 132.3 131.5 132.7 132.9 117.4 118.1 119.2 119.4 121.5 121.3 120.0 120.9 120.7 139.4 140.7 141.7 115.0 114.2 114.3 113.8 114.5 179.3 176.7 178.5 179.5 134.4 134.0 134.3 134.2 124.0 123.5 123.7 123.9 141.2 114.2 114.2 142.7 143.3 114.3 115.9 105.3 105.3 105.1 103.5 102.7 103.4 104.2 102.5 105.8 143.2 116.2 115.5 114.8 114.9 104.1 103.9 104.5 104.2 140.3 140.9 141.7 143.0 143.3 Includes rigs and prefabs, not shown separately. [1977=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Durable m inufactures Nonelectrical machinery Iron and steel Fabricated metal products 5.33 107.0 108.5 90.4 95.0 65.8 73.0 82.4 80.6 3.49 107.5 108.0 86.3 92.5 57.5 66.1 73.5 70.6 6.46 105.7 109.4 101.8 101.6 86.6 89.1 102.8 107.9 9.54 111.7 122.6 123.3 129.8 115.6 118.3 142.0 146.4 7.15 112.9 125.7 130.3 134.1 128.4 143.8 1985: Apr Mav June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 81.4 76.4 78.3 79.0 82.0 80.3 83.1 83.6 81.7 71.9 65.4 67.6 68.7 71.6 69.7 109.1 108.3 107.4 107.3 107.8 107.5 108.4 107.9 108.8 148.9 149.1 145.6 147.5 149.2 146.5 143.0 145.6 146.0 1986: Jan r Feb r Mar 1 " Apr" 84.9 81.9 78.3 78.8 75.5 71.2 66.7 109.3 109.4 109.0 109.5 146.2 145.3 Period Total 1977 proportion 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 74.4 75.3 72.0 144.1 144.3 No ndurable inanufactu es Transp station equipment Primary metals Electrical machinery Total Motor vehicles and parts Lumber and products Apparel products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Foods 169.3 9.13 106.3 108.3 96.9 95.1 87.6 99.2 113.6 123.2 5.25 104.6 95.9 71.1 71.6 66.8 85.8 105.6 112.8 2.30 102.4 102.0 92.9 90.1 82.8 100.2 109.1 112.9 2.79 103.1 98.3 97.3 96.1 87.3 95.3 102.8 101.8 4.54 107.8 112.7 115.1 118.6 120.2 129.8 147.9 155.2 8.05 106.8 111.4 106.4 112.6 103.8 114.0 121.7 127.1 7.96 104.3 106.7 111.4 113.7 114.9 120.4 127.1 131.0 168.9 169.3 169.5 165.7 166.1 165.1 165.1 168.9 171.9 120.7 120.9 121.8 123.7 126.8 126.2 124.5 126.5 126.8 110.9 110.5 110.5 112.8 116.8 115.3 111.7 114.5 115.4 110.9 112.2 113.5 113.0 114.8 115.9 116.5 115.6 116.5 100.2 100.3 99.2 100.6 100.4 101.8 102.6 103.9 105.0 154.2 155.4 156.7 154.3 156.3 156.2 157.0 159.0 158.4 125.8 126.7 126.4 126.4 128.2 129.0 127.9 128.0 128.5 130.8 131.4 131.8 132.2 132.6 132.5 130.7 131.4 132.6 167.9 165.5 165.4 165.5 128.9 128.1 123.9 127.1 117.8 117.8 110.1 115.1 119.9 118.2 105.8 103.6 103.7 158.9 157.1 156.6 158.6 130.5 130,8 131.2 133.2 133.8 133.3 172.4 NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Constructio n contracts 2 Private Period Total new construction expenditures Resi iential Total Commercial and industrial New housing Total i Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1977=100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) I 'illions of dollars 1978 1979 1980 1981 215.9 241.9 238.0 246.7 236.9 268.7 313.0 342.4 1982 1983 1984 1985 170.0 193.1 183.0 193.3 186.1 218.0 257.8 280.0 103.8 110.5 94.5 94.1 80.6 121.3 145.1 148.2 86.2 90.1 70.4 70.2 57.7 95.7 114.6 113.4 29.6 39.9 43.8 51.3 54.6 48.7 61.9 75.S 36.7 42.7 44.7 47.9 50.9 48.1 50.9 56.0 45.9 48.8 55.0 53.3 50.8 50.7 55.2 62.3 114.0 121.0 108.0 112.0 111.0 138.0 150.0 74.0 78.5 76.5 73.5 73.3 75.0 76.8 76.4 77.4 81.9 80.1 79.5 74.7 73.6 54.4 56.9 57.7 58.3 57.5 57.5 56.8 54.9 54.2 54.4 54.9 55.5 54.6 54.1 59.1 59.9 63.5 64.9 64.7 63.9 63.6 62.4 62.6 64.8 68.4 68.6 69.0 69.4 167 163 161 154 164 164 167 168 162 162 146 162 149 176 161.0 Annual rates Annual rates 1985: Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan r Feb r Mar" Aprp 333.7 341.9 339.9 343.8 344.2 343.2 346.1 344.5 343.8 351.7 274.6 282.0 276.4 278.9 279.5 279.4 282.5 282.1 281.3 286.9 146.2 146.5 142.3 147.2 148.7 146.9 148.9 150.9 149.7 150.7 110.8 112.6 112.0 112.2 112.8 113.4 113.8 115.6 115.2 116.6 355.1 358.8 353.9 356.7 286.7 290.2 284.8 287.3 151.7 155.2 155.5 159.6 118.7 121.9 122.9 127.0 3 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. 2 F. W. Dodge series. 977 1,059 904 919 690 756 955 1,064 1,049 1,104 1,008 836 1,103 1,097 1,118 1,104 1,111 951 848 941 840 1,011 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New priv ate homes New private housing units Period Units started, by type of structure Total 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 2,020.3 1,745.1 1,292.2 1,084.2 1,062.2 1,703.0 1,749.5 1,741.8 1 unit 1,433.3 1,194.1 852.2 705.4 662.6 1,067.6 1,084.2 1,072.4 2-4 units 125.0 122.0 109.5 91.1 80.0 113.5 121.4 93.4 5 or more units 462.0 429.0 330.5 287.7 319.6 522.0 544.0 576.1 Units authorized 1,800.5 1,551.8 1,190.6 985.5 1,000.5 1,605.2 1,681.8 r l,733.3 Units completed Homes sold Homes for sale at end1 of period 1,867.5 1,870.8 1,501.6 1,265.7 1,005.5 1,390.3 1,652.2 1,703.3 817 709 545 436 412 623 639 688 1,691 1,659 1,635 1,758 1,722 1,720 1,778 1,541 1,721 1,762 698 648 684 710 745 708 681 637 722 729 356 355 355 354 351 348 350 353 353 349 1,778 1,721 1,822 735 740 893 862 352 354 340 336 3 414 398 336 272 251 300 356 349 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 2 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.3 5.7 5.9 6.5 Seasonal !y adjusted annu al rates 1985: Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan r Feb T Mar r. Apr p 1 1,849 1,851 1,684 1,693 1,673 1,737 1,653 1,784 1,654 1,882 2,034 2,001 1,930 2,009 1,147 1,129 1,041 1,036 1,068 1,071 1,006 1,118 1,006 1,098 1,335 1,202 1,207 1,256 103 106 105 95 86 97 85 80 76 83 107 115 82 90 599 616 538 562 519 569 562 586 572 701 592 684 641 663 Seasonally adjusted. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable with earlier data. 3 New series beginning March 1979. 2 r 1,754 1,694 l,727 r l,717 r 1,709 r 1,782 r 1,846 T 1,703 r 1,668 r 1,839 1,861 1,808 1,834 1,885 r r 6.3 6.2 6.8 6.7 6.9 NOTE.—-Beginning 1984, units authorized are for 17,000 permit-issuing places and for 1978-83 data are for 16,000 places. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturing and trade sales fell 1.7 percent in March and inventories rose $2.8 billion. According to advance data, retail sales rose 0.5 percent in April following a decline of 0.9 percent in March. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 63U 200 190 180 170 160 150 600 550 _ - __^_^ 500 - 450 ^^ -"I\ MANUF/kCTURING A ND TRADE INVENTORY S 140 RETAIL INVENTORIES 130 400 350 ,x p.- 120 MANUFAC TURING AND TRAD E SALES ' \ 110 — 100 300 250 -RETAIL SALES - 90 80 - - 70 RATIO* 1.80 1.60 - 150 - _ INVENTC3RY-SALES RATIO t^n RETAIL 1 1 1 1 1 ( 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 II 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 | 11 1 1 1 II 1 M 1 ' H M 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1985 1984 1983 1982 1.00 MANUFACTURI •JG AND TRADE miil'MM M i n i u m i i | | i | i i m M i n i u m LI 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1982 1986 1983 Sales Inventories 3 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Whol esale Inventorv-s ales ratio 4 Re tail Sales 2 Period 2 1985 1984 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE and Manufact iring trad e J f. */ 1 20 100 - Sales 2 Inventoe Total Durable goods stores Inventories 3 Nondurable goods stores Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Manufacturing Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally idjusted 1978 1979 1980 1981 260,805 298,334 328,058 356,919 344,656 368,724 410,737 424,091 399,608 451,460 494,105 528,105 509,555 520,328 575,098 583,148 66,669 79,472 93,704 102,013 96,290 100,424 113,404 114,494 86,405 99,262 113,478 118,259 118,149 120,265 131,544 135,940 420,346 424,413 425,582 418,543 421,524 428,015 427,691 425,689 431,326 432,797 578,370 579,256 578,037 580,137 580,318 578,635 578,742 581,516 582,381 583,148 114,044 116,588 116,712 111,073 113,301 115,146 114,344 113,675 115,762 116,852 133,135 133,203 133,667 134,931 134,949 134,869 134,410 134,810 134,831 135,940 431,713 426,854 419,494 584,968 585,176 587,937 115,648 113,380 112,278 136,624 136,561 137,019 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: Mar r Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov r Dec 1986: 1 2 3 Jan Feb r Mar" Apr" r See page 21 for manufacturing, Monthly average for year and total for month. Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. 20 23,368 25,529 24,914 27,089 28,059 33,041 38,817 42,851 67,231 74,926 79,963 86,777 89,339 97,858 107,755 114,495 111,999 !14,316 114,232 113,599 114,430 116,276 119,118 114,785 115,433 116,861 41,498 42,822 42,787 42,444 42,768 44,209 46,748 42,355 42,631 43,882 r r 117,349 117,200 r l!6,165 116,788 44,187 43,949 r 42, 976 44,197 43,863 49,397 55,049 59,688 61,279 64,817 68,939 71,645 102,694 111,098 116,346 127,201 126,497 139,381 157,845 165,324 50,136 54,108 55,117 60,327 58,952 66,928 77,142 82,875 52,558 56,990 61,229 66,874 67,545 72,453 80,703 82,449 1.44 1.43 1.45 1.44 1.51 1.38 1.34 1.37 1.43 1.44 1.42 1.41 1.41 1.34 1.39 1.40 70,501 7 1,494 71,445 71,155 71,662 72,067 72,370 72,430 72,802 72,979 159,064 160,004 159,470 159,528 160,333 159,078 160,302 164,262 165,557 165,324 78,455 79,071 78,679 79,143 79,205 78,042 78,425 81,668 83,056 82,875 80,609 80,933 80,791 80,385 81,128 81,036 81,877 82,594 82,501 82,449 1.38 1.36 1.36 1.39 1.38 1.35 1.35 1.37 1.35 1.35 1.42 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.37 1.35 1.43 1.43 1.41 73,162 73,251 73,189 72,591 167,987 169,379 171,347 84,755 85,863 88,007 83,232 83,516 83,340 1.35 1.37 1.40 1.43 1.45 1.48 r r 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In April, manufacturers' shipments rose, inventories and new orders were little changed, and unfilled orders fell. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* {RATIO SCALE) 240 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 360 320 ~~ INVENT DRIES 280 ' — • :^*— " ' 1 —— 240 — TOTAL • ~ "'7/ DU RABLE GOO OS "7 NONDU (ABLE GOO 3S 60 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 200 - NEWO RDERS *— _-^*^1 160 -=^> DURA 120 MIMlMIM — TOTAL 2.2 3LE GOODS ,- - ~|[•^.x rf— -^ /' - 1.8 S. 1.6 ^^1 vIONDURABL f f 1 11 1t i 111 imillmi 1982 1983 1.2 1985 1984 Illllllllll INVENTCDRY-SHIPMENTS RATKD X p--"^ 1.4 40 i.HlLmii 2.0 ^•~: :,-.-\ \ t E GOODS •*~~s .m.1,.,1. ,,,,,!,,,,, RATIO* 1 1 1 1 1 1 j 1 1 1 1 1 f 1 ,1 1 1 1 1 , 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 , , , 1 1 1 1 , 1 1 1 1 1 1 , , 1 1 1 1 , i 1986 1982 1984 1983 "SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1985 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufa cturers' shiprnents 1 M anufacturers new orders i , Manufai turers' inven tones 2 D r bl ° Period Durable goods Total Nondurable goods Durable goods Total Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, nondefense Nondurable goods Manufacturers' unfilled orders 3 Manufacturers' inventory — shipments ratio 4 Millions of do .lars, seasoi\ally adjust id 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 126,905 143,936 154,391 168,129 159,027 170,441 189,578 195,102 67,848 76,060 77,550 83,872 76,693 84,951 98,502 103,649 59,057 67,876 76,841 84,257 82,334 85,491 91,076 91,452 210,509 241,100 264,281 282,645 264,909 260,682 285,709 281,884 137,891 160,533 174,620 186,347 175,103 171,629 191,109 189,164 72,618 80,567 89,661 96,298 89,806 89,053 94,600 92,720 131,546 147,403 156,161 167,752 157,255 173,259 191,634 195,803 72,339 79,451 79,360 83,553 74,996 87,631 100,611 104,305 19,458 23,231 23,259 24,050 20,681 22,764 27,017 27,215 59,207 67,953 76,801 84,199 82,260 85,627 91,024 91,499 259,770 302,145 323,393 319,094 296,918 330,924 355,640 363,809 1.57 1.57 1985: Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 193,509 194,638 193,871 193,793 196,593 194,229 197,229 200,131 199,084 102,068 102,718 102,657 102,478 105,311 103,656 106,479 107,007 105,777 91,441 91,920 91,214 91,315 91,282 90,573 90,750 93,124 93,307 286,049 284,900 285,678 285,036 284,688 284,030 282,444 281,993 281,884 192,475 191,546 192,239 192,163 192,037 191,930 190,508 190,284 189,164 93,574 93,354 93,439 92,873 92,651 92,100 91,936 91,709 92,720 191,081 195,019 198,261 195,793 198,782 197,332 195,381 196,865 201,213 99,839 102,971 106,780 104,370 107,661 106,641 104,495 103,796 107,531 25,461 25,594 27,984 26,685 27,554 29,240 27,092 25,788 30,566 91,242 92,048 91,481 91,423 91,121 90,691 90,886 93,069 93,682 354,731 355,112 359,502 361,502 363,691 366,794 364,946 361,680 363,809 1.48 1.46 1.47 1.47 1.45 1.46 1.43 1.41 1.42 1986: Jan r Feb r Mar" Apr" 198,716 196,274 191,051 194,916 105,631 105,545 102,693 106,073 93,085 90,729 88,358 88,843 280,357 279,236 279,571 279,195 188,518 187,644 188,333 187,788 91,839 91,592 91,238 91,407 201,133 198,559 192,996 193,177 24,288 28,637 26,540 26,075 92,939 91,014 88,314 88,670 366,226 368,511 370,456 368,717 1.41 1.42 1.46 1.43 1 2 3 r Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales. Book value, end of period. End of period. r 108,194 107,545 104,682 104,507 r 1.66 1.64 1.73 1.52 1.45 1.46 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. Source; Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In April, the producer price index for all finished goods fell 0.6 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 0.1 percent, while prices of other finished consumer goods fell 1.4 percent. Prices of capital equipment rose 0.3 percent. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 340 340 320 300 240 220 200 180 180 1985 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Fin shed goods Period Total finished goods 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 ' 195.9 217.7 247.0 269.8 280.7 285.2 Consumer foods Finished go( ds excluding consumer foo Is Consumer gc ods Total Total Durable Nondurable Capital equipment Total finished consumer goods Other Total 234.4 274.3 304.6 329.0 319.5 323.6 330.8 306.1 216.2 247.9 259.2 257.4 247.8 252.2 259.5 235.0 272.3 330.0 401.0 482.3 473.9 477.4 484.5 459.2 271.3 281.0 284.6 290.3 291.8 253.1 232.8 299.6 300.0 300.4 300.7 301.3 299.7 302.7 303.4 303.8 291.9 292.6 291.6 292.5 291.2 289.6 292.1 294.5 296.7 319.3 320.0 318.5 317.8 317.4 317.2 317.5 318.6 319.9 235.4 231.5 230.7 229.7 226.5 224.9 229.4 232.3 233.9 325.4 326.5 325.0 324.3 324.1 323.9 324.0 325.0 326.2 307.3 305.6 303.8 303.0 296.1 293.1 302.2 308.0 307.0 235.1 231.6 230.6 229.5 221.6 217.7 231.0 240.8 239.7 462.9 464.9 461.2 461.1 456.1 454.9 455.4 453.1 452.4 303.3 303.5 304.3 305.3 294.3 288.3 284.1 281.5 318.3 313.8 310.0 307.0 232.6 229.2 228.8 226.9 324.6 320.0 316.0 312.9 303.2 288.1 279.9 269.7 233.5 225.1 222.9 216.1 453.4 424.1 403.3 385.8 200.0 231.3 283.9 319.6 333.6 335.3 337.3 339.3 199.2 216.5 239.8 264.3 279.4 287.2 294.0 300.5 194.9 217.9 248.9 291.1 293.7 166.9 183.2 206.2 218.6 226.7 233.1 236.8 241.5 1985: Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec r 293.5 294.2 293.6 294.3 293.4 291.8 294.4 296.4 298.3 270.8 268.6 268.4 270.9 269.0 266.4 270.8 273.7 276.5 298.9 300.6 299.7 299.8 299.3 298.0 300.1 301.7 303.3 297.5 299.7 298.4 298.4 297.5 296.3 298.0 300.0 301.9 240.9 241.4 242.1 242.1 242.3 239.8 243.0 243.8 243.6 340.1 343.8 340.7 340.7 339.0 338.9 339.3 342.3 346.0 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr 296.3 291.7 288.6 286.8 274.8 270.5 271.2 271.6 301.2 296.5 292.1 289.5 299.2 292.4 285.8 281.7 242.4 242.6 243.9 245.6 342.0 330.0 317.5 308.9 Other Total Foodstuffs and feedstuffs 216.5 244.4 282.3 310.1 315.7 317.1 325.0 325.0 186.7 211.5 250.8 276.5 287.8 291.4 294.1 297.3 22 Foods and feeds l 203.1 226.1 252.6 250.3 239.4 247.9 190.7 213.3 247.8 273.3 285.8 290.8 294.8 299.0 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. Cnide maten als 215.6 242.2 280.3 306.0 310.4 312.3 320.0 318.7 207.2 226.2 239.5 253.6 259.3 261.8 273.3 271.2 1 Intern ediate ma terials Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In April, the consumer price index for all urban consumers fell 0.3 percent, seasonally adjusted (0.2 percent not seasonally adjusted). The index was 1.6 percent above its year-earlier level. INDE)(, 1967=100 (FJATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967 == 100 (RATIO S<:ALE) 340 340 UNADJUSTED 320 320 ^^ ^—\ ^^ 300 300 1-^ x— •=4 280 280 ALL ITEMS -7 260 260 -/— 240 240 220 220 200 X f— 200 X 180 'IMlllll" MHllllMI 1979 1980 1978 1 ' 1 M 1 1 ' ' Mimilmn 1982 1981 \ |\l|1 M 11 1 ,,,,,,,,,, , \ 11 ' * ' ' ' M 1 1983 1985 1984 EE NOTE ON TABLE B LOW OURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR |MMI 180 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967 = 100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Tr ansportati on Hou sing SheHer All items l Total ' Renters' costs (Dec. 1982 = 100) NSA Rel. imp.z 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr 100.0 195.4 217.4 246.8 272.4 289.1 298.4 311.1 322.2 320.1 321.3 322.3 322.8 323.5 324.5 325.5 326.6 327.4 328.4 327.5 326.0 325.3 Homeowners' costs (Dec. 1982=100) repairs Fuel and other utilities upkeep Total l 5.0 159.6 166.6 178.4 186.9 191.8 196.5 200.2 206.0 205.4 205.3 205.9 205.6 205.9 206.8 207.7 208.4 208.3 207.7 206.6 206.3 206.9 21.4 185.5 212.0 249.7 280.0 291.5 298.4 311.7 319.9 320.9 320.2 320.2 320.3 319.8 319.3 320.5 322.6 323.9 325.5 320.9 311.8 304.0 New cars Motor fuel 3.4 153.8 166.0 179.3 190.2 197.6 202.6 208.5 215.2 214.1 214.5 215.0 215.2 215.7 216.2 217.0 217.7 218.4 218.6 219.5 219.9 221.2 5.5 196.3 265.6 369.1 410.9 389.4 376.4 370.7 373.8 374.3 377.7 378.8 379.1 377.4 375.2 374.3 377.4 379.4 380.1 357.2 314.8 279.5 Medical care Ener- 6.5 219.4 239.7 265.9 294.5 328.7 357.3 379.5 403.1 397.5 399.8 402.6 404.3 406.6 409.0 410.9 413.0 415.7 417.5 420.4 424.5 427.2 11.3 220.4 275.9 361.1 410.0 416.1 419.3 423.6 426.5 428.0 429.7 430.3 429.4 427.6 426.8 425.8 428.4 430.3 430.8 414.3 387.5 365.2 gy 2 All items less food, energy, and shelter NSA 18.5 211.4 234.5 254.6 274.6 285.7 291.7 302.9 309.8 308.7 308.4 309.1 309.2 309.6 310.7 311.1 313.2 315.2 315.9 313.8 314.1 315.0 37.9 202.8 227.6 263.3 293.5 314.7 323.1 336.5 349.9 346.5 348.4 349.4 350.3 351.7 352.2 353.3 355.2 356.2 357.1 356.8 357.5 358.5 22.3 210.4 239.7 281.7 314.7 337.0 344.8 361.7 382.0 376.4 379.7 381.1 383.1 385.3 386.1 387.9 390.5 391.9 393.3 394.8 397.3 400.7 7.3 103.0 108.6 115.4 113.7 114.7 115.3 115.8 116.3 116.7 117.5 118.2 118.5 118.8 119.2 119.8 121.1 14.4 102.5 107.3 113.1 111.5 112.6 112.9 113.6 114.3 114.5 114.9 115.7 116.2 116.6 117.0 118.0 118.9 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oi!, coolant, etc. also included through 1982. 3 Relative importance, December 1985. Maintenance Appar- 0.5 233.0 256.4 285.7 314.4 334.1 346.3 359.2 368.9 368.0 366.2 367.6 367.8 370.6 368.7 368.5 372.7 373.7 379.1 379.6 367.5 367.6 8.1 216.0 239.3 278.6 319.2 350.8 370.3 387.3 393.6 392.8 392.8 394.7 394.2 393.6 394.4 393.7 395.4 396.5 397.2 392.4 388.4 385.7 48.0 179.1 191.5 208.3 228.1 245.6 258.4 271.2 281.6 280.3 280.2 280.9 281.4 282.1 282.6 284.1 285.4 286.2 287.5 288.0 288.6 289.1 NOTE.—Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Period Cha nge from pr seeding perk d Change from 3 montl s earlier, aim jal rate Change from 6 mont] s earlier, ann jal rate Consum r goods Consum r goods Consum r goods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding food? Foods Total finished goods Capita! equipment Excluding foods Foods Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Cha age, Dec. o Dec., N 3A 9.2 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 8.5 11.7 12.8 11.8 7.1 .9.7 .6 1.7 1.8 7.9 8.8 7.4 7.5 17.5 14.2 1.4 2.1 2.3 3.0 8.5 4.2 -.8 .8 9.2 2.0 2.7 r r .5 7.8 11.1 13.5 11.4 3.9 9.2 4.0 1.6 2.1 .9 - 1.9 1.8 Ch ange, mon th to mont b 1985: 1986: 0.5 Apr Mav June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec r -.8 -.1 .9 .7 -.4 0 — ./ -1.0 -.3 — .5 .9 .7 .6 1.7 1.1 1.0 .6 7 .6 ~ .1 -1.6 -1.1 -.6 -.9 2 .2 .3 Jan r Feb Mar r. Apr 1.2 -0.6 2 — .4 -2.3 -2.3 -1.4 -1.6 .3 -.6 -1 0.1 .1 .1 .1 2 -.5 1.0 .2 •1 -4.2 -7.1 2.2 3.2 2.2 1.1 -1.1 8.9 8.1 .1 .6 -2.4 -.2 .1 .3 .3 4.7 -5.7 1.2 -2.9 -2.8 — .5 -2.9 .1 4.2 -.1 7.2 9.2 16.0 3.4 7.8 6.0 2.6 1.7 — 2.1 2.8 1.6 1.0 1.7 1.0 -.1 .6 1.5 3.2 -3.8 -4.5 — 2.0 -3.3 -4.4 3.6 .8 .1 1.4 2.9 1.1 3.6 .6 1.6 -4.6 -7.4 -6.2 -12.4 -12.2 3.8 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.7 -.9 2.7 2.8 5.6 -9.8 -19.7 -21.4 -4.6 .7 2.7 2.6 2.9 2.8 1.6 .3 2 0 3.8 6.1 -1.2 29 -5.1 2.4 .5 -3.4 -7.0 -10.6 3.1 2.8 3.3 2.6 1.8 .3 2.1 2.3 2.3 .7 1.0 1.1 .9 .8 .2 1.1 1.7 1.5 3.1 1.7 1.4 -.1 1.4 1.8 -1.4 -2.1 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted hv NSA] Housing Tr. nsportati m f Shelter Period Fuel All Food Total ' Total l Renters' Homeowners' other utili- parel and upkeep Total ' cars Adden lum: All ite ns, percent hange (annua rate) All items less food, energy, and Ap- Medical care fuel Energy2 From OlIS From 3 months From 6 months year earlier NSA C mnge, D ecember to Dec imber, !N SA 9.0 1978 1979 13.3 12.4 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 8.9 3.9 3.8 4.0 3.8 11.8 10.2 10.2 4.3 3.1 2.6 3.8 2.7 9.9 15.2 13.7 10.2 3.6 3.5 4.2 4.3 11.5 17.4 15.1 9.9 2.4 4.7 5.2 6.0 5.1 5.9 6.3 4.5 5.1 5.9 5.9 3.2 7.7 6.2 16.0 13.6 14.5 5.5 6.8 3.6 1.6 2.9 2.0 2.9 18.2 14.7 11.0 7.4 7.5 9.7 1.8 4.2 1.9 1.7 3.9 3.1 2.6 6.8 1.6 3.4 2.4 8.5 52.2 18.9 9.4 -6.5 -1.7 -2.4 3.5 3.0 0.6 0.2 1.7 — .2 .2 2 .1 o .9 .3 .1 — .4 8.8 10.1 10.0 12.5 11.0 8.0 37.4 18.1 11.9 1.3 7.7 6.5 7.2 11.3 13.5 9.9 9.4 6.1 5.0 6.4 g 6.1 6.7 .2 1.8 4.4 0.5 .6 1.1 .4 .1 10.4 6.1 3.2 4.3 3.6 3.7 Clu nge, mo nth to nloflth 1985: Apr Mav June 0.0 -.1 _2 .0 .1 .4 .1 .7 .6 0.3 .5 .3 .3 .4 .1 .3 .5 .3 0.5 .9 .4 .5 .6 2 .0 .7 .3 .2 .3 -.4 -.7 .1 .3 .4 .4 0.3 .2 9 .2 .2 .2 .4 .6 Julv Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr .4 -A -.S i 2 .3 .4 .6 .9 0.4 .9 .5 .4 .4 .3 1 .6 .3 0 .3 .5 1.1 .4 0.1 -.0 .3 -.1 .1 .4 .4 .3 4 .3 — .0 .3 .3 .9 .8 .2 -.3 .o — 1.2 -1.0 — .5 ~1.4 -.1 .3 -2.8 -2.5 0.5 1.0 .3 .8 .6 .2 .3 .7 0.4 0 .5 — .\ -.2 2 — 9 — .7 0 .0 -.2 -.2 .2 -.6 .4 .4 — 2 .7 .3 .3 .8 .5 .4 .2 -6.0 2 -11.9 .6 -11.2 .4 .4 2 .6 .6 .n .5 -.4 .7 .4 0.3 -.0 .2 .2 .2 _2 .5 .0 .3 .4 .1 .5 .7 1.0 .6 -3.8 -6.5 -5.8 2 ./ -.2 .6 .2 .2 1 2 Includes items not shown separately. Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oi!, coolant, etc.,3 also included through 1982. Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. 24 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 4.0 4.6 4.2 3.3 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.4 3.1 4.5 4.3 5.3 5.1 1.2 1.5 -1.9 -4.3 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.8 4.1 2.9 1.6 .3 3.9 3.2 2.3 1.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.4 2.8 2.9 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers in May were 2.5 percent above their April level. Prices paid by farmers in April were 1.8 percent below their February level. INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 60 60 1986 I/RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE- DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE [1977 = 100] P rices paid by farmer S Pri :es received by farm ers Period 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar r. Apr May All commodities, All farm products products 115 132 134 139 133 135 142 129 130 128 127 122 121 123 127 128 124 122 122 121 124 105 116 125 134 121 128 139 121 126 123 123 115, 112 111 116 118 113 111 111 114 116 interest, taxes, and wage rates l 124 147 144 143 145 141 146 136 134 134 130 128 128 134 138 137 135 133 132 127 131 4 Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates 108 123 109 125 138 150 157 160 164 163 164 164 163 162 162 162 162 162 163 163 (3) 160 (3) 139 151 155 159 161 157 159 158 156 156 155 154 155 155 156 155 (3) 152 (3) Production items 108 125 138 148 150 153 155 151 152 151 150 149 148 148 149 149 150 149 (3) 145 (3) Ratio 2 106 107 97 93 85 84 86 79 79 78 78 75 75 76 78 79 76 75 75 76 * 78 Derived using prices paid index for Apri. NOTE,—The official indexes are p ave been converted to a 1977 = 100 Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES Growth in Ml was little changed in April, but growth in M2 and M3 accelerated. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,400 3,200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,400 3,200 2,800 2,800 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 \ "M2- 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 800 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 300 300 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 - AVERAGES Of DAILY FIGURES; SEASONAUY ADJUSTED 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] M2 Ml Period 1978: 197.9: 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1985: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Apr Mav June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr* Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OODs) 363.0 388.7 414.2 441.1 479.9 527.1 558.5 626.6 575.7 582.5 590.9 596.2 604.8 611.5 614.2 620.1 626.6 627.2 631.1 638.4 646.1 M3 Ml plus overnight RPs and Eurodollars, MMMF balances (general purpose and broker/dealer), savings and small time deposits 1,388.9 1,497.5 1,680.3 1,792.8 1,952.6 2,186.0 2,373.8 2,565.8 2,434.4 2,451.9 2,479.0 2,496.1 2,515.4 2,529.5 2,538.4 2,550.8 2,565.8 2,569.1 2,576.8 2,591.3 2,621.6 1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and Jocal governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and month])' changes are from 6 montjjs earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. 26 M2 plus large time deposits, term RPs, term Eurodollars, and institution-only MMMF balances 1,646.4 1,803.2 1,987.4 2,233.6 2,443.5 2,697.3 2,986.6 * 3,200,1 3,052.0 3,069.9 3,098.0 3,113.3 3,131.4 3,151.5 3,166.0 3,180.9 3,200.1 3,222.9 3,239.5 3,259.2 3,288.8 L M3 plus other liquid assets 1,909.0 2,114.8 2,323.3 2,593.7 2,850.1 3,163.5 3,532.3 ' 3,836.8 '3,618.9 '3,638.2 ' 3,667 .4 '3,685.2 '3,713.1 '3,741.1 3,762.3 3,798.8 3,836.8 3,858.8 3,878.4 3,891.2 Debt Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors (monthlv average) * 3,169.5 3,554.5 3,894.6 4,269.6 4,661.1 5,191.9 5,951.9 r 6,801.0 6,194.5 6,259.0 6,323.5 '6,392.6 '6,462.4 '6,527.2 6,593.6 6,679.1 6,801.0 6,904.3 6,961.9 7,013.9 Perce nt change from year or 6 months earlier 2 Ml 8.3 7.1 6.6 6.5 8.8 9.8 6.0 12.2 9.7 10.5 11.9 12.2 12.9 14.2 13.8 13.3 12.4 10.7 8.9 9.0 10.7 NOTE.—See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. M2 8.0 7.8 8.9 10.0 8.9 12.0 8.6 8.1 9.8 9.0 9.1 8.2 7.9 8.4 8.7 8.2 7.1 5.9 4.9 4.9 6.7 MS 11,8 9.5 10.2 12.4 9.4 10.4 10.7 r 7.1 8.8 7.9 7.6 6.7 6.5 7.0 7.6 7.4 6.7 7.2 7.0 7.0 7.9 Debt 13.3 12.1 9.6 9.6 9.2 11.4 14.6 14.3 14.2 13.5 12.9 12.8 '13.2 13.3 13.3 13.9 15.7 16.5 16.1 15.5 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Period Demand deposits Currency Other checkable depos- its (OCDs) Overnight repurchase agreements (RPs), net, plus overnight Eurodollars NSA 1978: Dec 1979: Dec 1980: Dec 1981: Dec 1982: Dee 1983: Dec 1984: Dec 1985: Dec r .. 1985: Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 253.5 261.1 265.3 234.6 237.9 148.3 242.7 158.5 248.4 97.6 106.4 116.7 124.1 134.3 8.5 Money market mutua fund balaiices General purpose and broker/ dealer NSA Institution only NSA 3.1 9.5 20.3 21.2 28.3 35.9 38.8 53.8 56.3 69.6 33.4 61.6 150.6 185.2 138.2 167.5 176.5 15.2 38.0 51.1 43.2 62.7 64.6 6.4 Money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) Savings deposits Small denomination tune deposits 1 Large denomination time deposits l NSA 0.0 .0 .0 .0 Term repurchase agreements (RPs) Term Eurodollars (net) NSA NSA Savings bonds Shortterm Treas- ury securities 26.6 29.5 34.0 36.0 34.5 51.8 62.2 65.5 31.8 44.7 50.3 67.5 81.7 91.5 83.1 77.0 80.3 79.6 825.1 852.8 785.2 887.5 880.3 195.1 222.1 259.0 301.8 327.8 329.9 413.9 436.5 72.3 67.8 68.0 71.2 74.3 79.5 81.1 107.8 133.4 149.6 184.4 214.9 266.0 306.7 521.5 635.3 730.2 43.2 379.2 417.0 512.0 482.0 423.9 401.4 344.8 357.9 306.6 289.7 303.6 170.6 271.5 17.4 28.0 78.0 103.4 131.3 146.3 178.6 161.9 163.2 164.4 165.3 166.9 167.7 168.7 169.8 170.6 251.8 255.4 259.0 260.4 263.1 266.4 266.0 267.8 271.5 156.5 158.4 161.8 164.8 169.0 171.5 173.7 176.7 178.6 57.8 61.3 60.8 60.7 63.6 r 64.2 r 64.7 65.8 r 69.6 176.2 172.2 175.4 175.8 176.8 176.7 177.0 176.8 176.5 59.6 63.5 67.1 65.0 63.6 62.3 63.3 64.5 64.6 462.5 466.4 478.1 487.2 495.2 499.8 504.1 509.5 512.0 289.0 290.8 293.6 296.7 299.7 300.3 302.3 303.7 303.6 887.6 889.5 890.3 888.0 880.9 878.3 875.7 876.0 880.3 425.9 425.0 422.7 418.3 421.0 425.6 429.7 432.9 436.5 59.8 57.7 57.1 55.7 57.1 r 58.4 r 59.4 r 62.8 r 65.5 80.9 81.4 79.2 78.8 80.0 80.2 r 79.3 r 79.1 r 77.0 75.7 76.1 76.5 76.7 77.2 78.0 78.5 79.0 79.5 276.0 277.4 282.6 279.9 278.1 281.3 281.4 299.5 306.7 171.9 172.9 173.9 174.4 268.9 269.2 273.2 275.6 180.5 183.1 185.2 189.9 68.0 67.5 66.4 67.3 177.7 181.0 186.2 191.8 67.3 67.7 70.2 74.1 515.7 516.4 520.5 525.1 304.0 305.0 306.9 311.5 886.0 891.0 894.7 896.2 447.9 451.2 450.4 451.9 68.2 69.8 70.6 68.7 75.9 78.9 81.6 80.3 79.9 80.5 81.1 303.9 307.2 299.9 Bankers' acceptances Cornpaper 22.0 27.2 32.1 39.9 44.3 44.5 43.6 41.1 79.2 97.0 98.1 102.8 109.9 135.6 161.8 209.5 47.5 46.3 44.5 r 43.7 r 43.6 r 43.2 43.9 43.1 41.1 167.7 168.6 165.7 171.6 182.9 187.2 192.5 196.4 209.5 41.5 42.1 41.6 210.6 209.2 209.5 r r r 1986: Jan r Feb r Mar r Apr*1 1 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. Travelers checks are a component of money stock but are not shown here. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. NOTE.—See note p. 26. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Net change in in staUment ere dit outstandii] g 1 Ins bailment credit outstanding !end of perio i) Period 1976: 1977: 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1985: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb r Mar" 1 Other Total Automobile Revolving Revolving 187,782 221,475 261,976 296,483 297,667 314,321 327,173 376,239 453,580 535,098 66,821 80,948 98,739 112,475 112,255 120,020 125,369 145,908 173,122 206,482 16,595 36,689 45,202 53,357 54,894 60,750 66,007 78,369 98,514 118,296 15,738 16,362 16,921 18,207 19,119 20,382 20,998 22,194 24,184 25,461 88,628 87,476 101,114 112,444 111,399 113,169 114,799 129,768 157,760 184,859 20,739 33,693 40,501 34,507 1,184 16,654 12,852 49,066 77,341 81,518 9,832 14,127 17,791 13,736 -220 7,765 5,349 20,539 27,214 33,360 2,088 20,094 8,513 8,155 1,537 5,856 5,257 12,362 20,145 19,782 474,989 482,532 488,862 493,253 500,039 506,090 516,420 522,978 528,621 535,098 181,514 184,526 187,533 189,459 191,201 192,923 198,656 201,994 203,766 206,482 105,297 107,417 108,372 109,260 110,904 112,373 113,850 115,218 117,050 118,296 24,468 24,570 24,670 24,768 25,015 25,173 25,341 25,320 25,315 25,461 163,710 166,019 168,287 169,766 172,919 175,621 178,573 180,446 182,490 184,859 8,299 7,543 6,330 4,391 6,786 6,051 10,330 6,558 5,643 6,477 3,263 3,012 3,007 1,926 1,742 1,722 5,733 3,338 1,772 2,716 2,924 2,120 542,753 547,761 551,474 210,661 213,343 214,431 119,682 120,724 122,190 25,371 25,483 25,714 187,039 188,212 189,139 7,655 5,008 3,713 4,179 2,682 1,088 1,386 1,042 1,467 For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change fr om preceding month. Mobile home Automobile Total 955 888 1,644 1,469 1,477 1,368 1,832 1,246 Mobile home Other 350 624 559 1,286 912 1,263 616 1,196 1,990 1,277 108 102 100 98 247 158 168 -21 r 146 -90 112 232 8,469 -1,152 13,638 11,330 1,045 1,770 1,630 14,969 27,992 27,099 2,004 2,309 2,268 1,479 3,153 2,702 2,952 1,873 2,044 2,369 2,180 1,173 926 Source: 1 oard of Goverr ors of the Fed ral Reserve Sj stem. 27 BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES, AND RESERVES Commercial and industrial loans rose 0.4 percent in April. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 2,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 2,000 1986 - SEASONAUY ADJUSTED. SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Al commercial ban k s 1 Depo itory institutio n s 3 B sserves adjust ad for changes \ n res erve requirem ents Loans a nd leases Period Total loans i and securities Total 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1985: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr" 1,013.8 1,135.4 1,239.7 1,307.4 1,400.5 1,553.0 1,716.8 1,895.5 1,768.8 1,788.5 1,802.7 1,819.0 1,828.8 1,841.3 1,844.4 1,869.6 1,895.5 1,919.6 1,926.2 1,941.5 1,944.1 2 746.9 849.1 914.5 967.4 1,032.8 1,122.7 1,316.5 1,450.3 1,367.1 1,380.0 1,391.0 1,402.1 1,409.2 1,416.9 1,419.7 1,433.9 1,450.3 1,465.4 1,470.5 1,493.0 1,500.2 Commercial and industrial loans 246.1 291.1 326.9 355.1 391.5 412.8 469.0 493.9 481.9 484.3 484.3 484.1 485.7 487.2 487.0 490.6 493.9 494.2 495.3 502.1 504.3 U.S. Government securities 28 securities Total 137.6 144.4 170.9 179.6 202.7 260.8 260.3 270.7 129.2 141.9 154.4 160.4 165.0 169.6 140.0 174.5 140.2 142.2 144.5 145.4 148.2 261.4 266.3 267.1 271.6 271.4 273.1 270.0 275.0 270.7 264.6 270.8 268.0 264.7 1 Data are prorated averages of Wednesday figures for domestically chartered hanks and averages of month-end data for foreign-related institutions. Data beginning January 1984 are not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods, largely because beginning January 1984 certain obligations of States and political subdivisions are included in loans rather than in other securities. 2 Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. Borr wings (millions of dollars, unad usted) 151.3 154.8 160.7 174.5 189.6 184.9 180.5 179.2 3 27.91 29.20 31.04 32.10 34.28 36.14 39.08 r 45.61 r 41.15 r 41.86 r 42.67 r 43.08 r 43.65 r 43.88 r 44.24 ' 44.85 r 45.61 r 45.88 r 46.37 r 46.87 47.27 borrowed 27.04 27.73 29.35 31.46 33.65 35.36 35.90 r 44.29 ''39.83 r 40.52 r 41.46 r 41.98 r 42.58 r 42.59 r 43.06 r 43.11 r 44.29 r 45.11 r 45.49 r 46.10 46.38 Required 27.67 28.76 30.52 31.78 33.78 35.58 38.23 r 44.55 r 40.41 r 41.05 r 41.76 r 42.23 r 42.83 r 43.22 r 43.49 r 43.92 ' 44.55 r 44.77 r 45.27 r 45.97 46.47 Total 868 1,473 1,690 636 634 774 3,186 1,318 1,323 1,334 1,205 1,107 1,073 1,289 1.187 1,741 1,318 770 884 761 893 Data are averages of daily figures. NOTE.—Reserves series revised; revised data prior to ApriS 1985 not yet available. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Seasonal 135 81 116 54 33 96 113 56 135 165 151 167 221 203 172 107 56 36 56 68 73 SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External Period Or edit market fu nds Internal 1 Total Total Total Securities and mortgages Loans and short-term paper Other 2 Total Capital expenditures 3 Increase in financial assets Discrepancy (sources less uses) 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985* 324.5 354.0 348.6 380.8 329.4 435,1 511.3 473.5 182.3 197.6 200.1 239.5 242.3 288.1 338.1 370.4 142.2 156.5 148.5 141.3 87.1 147.0 173.1 103.1 81.0 88.2 93.0 92.2 83.5 84.7 115.4 75.3 33.3 21.0 52.1 21.8 44.0 57.3 -11.2 11.7 47.7 67.3 40.9 70.4 39.5 27.4 126.5 63.6 61.3 68.2 55.5 49.2 3.6 62.3 57.8 27.8 309.0 362.5 341.6 349.6 283.6 395.1 457.6 430.9 216.9 238.3 244.1 286.3 256.3 271.4 376.3 367.2 92.0 124.3 97.5 63.3 27.3 123.8 81.4 63.7 15.5 -8.5 7.0 31.2 45.8 40.0 53.6 42.6 1984: I II Ill IV 532.6 521.1 462.7 528.7 324.8 334.4 343.9 349.6 207.8 186.7 118.8 179.1 113.9 92.5 85.2 169.8 -27.8 -57.6 .5 40.3 141.7 150.1 84.7 129.5 93.8 94.3 33.6 9.4 491.9 468.1 394.5 476.0 356.6 381.8 385.5 381.1 135.3 86.3 9.0 94.9 40.7 53.0 68.2 52.6 1985: I II 423.9 462.9 481.5 525.5 358.3 364.6 382.7 376.1 65.6 98.3 98.8 149.4 64.8 74.2 56.0 106.3 -13.4 31.6 11.2 17.5 78.2 42.6 44.8 88.8 .7 24.0 42.9 43.1 390.5 418.8 441.8 472.2 356.7 366.0 365.5 380.8 33.8 52.8 76.3 91.4 33.5 44.0 39.7 53.3 m IV 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained abroad. 2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstem. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars, except as noted] C urrent liabilitit s Curren assets End of period QFK-FRB series: z 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985" 1983: in IV 1984: I II m IV 1985: I r r n ni r IV Total 1,043.7 1,214.8 1,328.3 1,419.6 1,437.1 1,575.9 1,703.0 1,778.5 1,537.3 1,575.9 1,619.5 1,650.0 1,685.9 1,703.0 1,718.4 1,729.8 1,756.7 1,778.5 Cash 105.5 118.0 127.0 135.6 147.8 171.8 173.6 188.0 155.0 171.8 167.6 164.9 161.3 173.6 166.7 168.0 174.6 188.0 U.S. Government securities 17.2 16.7 18.7 17.7 23.0 31.0 36.2 32.3 27.5 31.0 35.4 37.2 33.0 36.2 35.0 34.8 31.9 32.3 Notes and accounts receivable 388.0 459.0 507.5 532.5 517.4 583.0 633.1 671.2 567.5 583.0 606.4 622.6 639.1 633.1 649.5 652.4 658.6 671.2 Inventories 431.8 505.1 543.0 584.0 579.0 603.4 656.9 663.9 600.8 603.4 622.2 632.5 659.3 656.9 666.1 666.6 674.7 663.9 Other current assets 101.1 116.0 132.1 149.7 169.8 186.7 203.2 223.2 186.6 186.7 187.9 192.9 193.2 203.2 201.0 208.0 217.0 223.2 Total 669.5 807.3 890.6 971.3 986.0 1,059.6 1,163.6 1,232.7 1,040.2 1,059.6 1,093.1 1,126.3 1,155.0 1,163.6 1,173.2 1,179.4 1,209.1 1,232.7 Notes and accounts payable 383.0 460.8 514.4 547.1 550.7 595.7 647.8 683.1 571.0 595.7 601.9 623.4 642.2 647.8 636.4 649.8 668.1 683.1 Other current liabilities 286.5 346.5 376.2 424.1 435.3 463.9 515.8 549.7 469.2 463.9 491.2 502.9 512.9 515.8 536.8 529.7 541.0 549.7 Net working capital 374.3 407.5 437.8 448.3 451.1 516.3 539.5 545.7 497.1 516.3 526.5 523.7 530.8 539.5 545.2 550.3 547.6 545.7 Current ratio l 1.559 1.505 1.492 1.462 1.458 1.487 1.464 1.443 1.478 1.487 1.482 1.465 1.460 1.464 1.465 1.467 1.453 1.443 the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census from the Federal Trade Commission. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census), and Federal Trade Commission. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Most interest rates rose in May. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNU 1 CORPORATE Aaa BONDS \ > (MOODY'S) v /^ / ' \ \ [Percent per annum] U.S. T reasury security jdelds Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 3-month bills (new issues) * 11.506 14.029 10.686 8.63 9.58 7.48 1984 1985 1985: May June July Aug Sept Get ~Sov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Constant Hlaturities 2 3-year 11.55 14.44 12.92 10.45 11.89 9.64 10-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor's) 3 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) * Prime commercial paper, 6 months l Discount rate (N.Y. F.K. Bant)5 11.46 13.91 13.00 11.10 12.44 10.62 8.51 11.23 11.57 9.47 10.15 8.18 11.94 14.17 13.79 12.04 12.71 11.37 12.29 14.76 11.89 8.89 10.16 8.01 11.77 13.41 11.02 8.00-7.50 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.50 7.56 7.01 7.05 7.18 7.08 7.17 7.20 7.07 7.04 7.03 6.59 6.06 6.12 9.75 9.05 9.18 9.31 9.37 9.25 8.88 8.40 8.41 8.10 7.30 6.86 7.27 10.85 10.16 10.31 10.33 10.37 10.24 9.78 9.26 9.08 8.78 8.90 9.18 9.37 9.24 8.64 8.51 11.72 10.94 10.97 11.05 11.07 11.02 10.55 10.16 9.19 8.70 7.78 7.30 7.71 8.06 7.44 7.07 7.32 7.67 10.05 9.67 9.00 r 8.79 9.09 7.88 7.38 7.57 7.74 7.86 Y.79 7.69 7.62 7.62 7.54 7.08 6.47 6.53 6.08 6.07 6.07 6.22 6.15 6.33 7.07 6.98 7.28 7.45 7.47 7.44 7.44 7.75 7.90 7.88 7.43 7.44 7.61 7.90 7.74 8.97 8.98 9.12 9.17 9.14 6.44 6.42 6.52 6.63 6.61 Prime rate charged by banks 5 15.27 18.87 14.86 10.79 12.04 9.93 8.50 8.80 7.69 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.00 7.00-6.50 6.50 6.50 10.50-10.00 10.00- 9.50 9.509.509.509.509.509.509.509.509.509.008.50- 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.00 8.50 8.50 New-home mortgage yields (FHLBB)6 12.66 14.70 15.14 12.57 12.38 11.55 12.01 11.75 11.34 11.24 11.17 11.09 11.01 10.94 10.89 10.68 ' 10.50 10.28 Week ended: 1986: May 3 10 17 24 31 June 7 1 Bank-discount basis. 2 Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Series excludes public utility issues for January 17, 1984 through October 11, 1984 due to lack of appropriate issues. 30 6.50-6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50-6.50 6.50-6.50 6.50-6.50 6.50- 8,50- 8.50 8.50- 8.50 8.50- 8.50 8.50- 8.50 8.50- 8.50 8.50- 5 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 8 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Overall, stock prices rose slightly in May. INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX (NYSE) PERCENT PERCENT 20 20 EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) 15 15 10 10 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION Co nrnon stock price S ' New • York Stock Exc hange indexes (E ec. 31, 1965-5 3) 2 Period Composite 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: 1986: Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr r May Week ended: 1986: Apr 26 May 3 10 17 24 31 1 Industrial Transportation 3 Standard & Poor's composite index (194143 = 10)4 Dividendprice ratio 68.10 74.02 68.93 92.63 92.46 108.09 78.70 85.44 78.18 107.45 108.01 123.79 60.61 72.61 60.41 89.36 85.63 104.11 37.35 38.91 39.75 47.00 46.44 56.75 64,25 73.52 71.99 95.34 89.28 114.21 891.41 932.92 884.36 1,190.34 1,178.48 1,328.23 118.78 128.05 119.71 160.41 160.46 186.84 5.26 5.20 5.81 4.40 4.64 4.25 104.66 107.00 109.52 111.64 109.09 106.62 107.57 113.93 119.33 119.93 121.88 124.11 126.94 124.92 122.35 123.65 130.53 136.77 96.47 99.66 105.79 111.67 109.92 104.96 103.72 108.61 113.52 109,39 115,31 118.47 119.85 114.68 110.21 112.36 122.83 128.86 1,266.36 1,279.40 1,314.00 1,343.17 1,326.18 1,317.95 1,351.58 1,432.88 1,517.02 180.62 184.90 188.89 192.54 188.31 184.06 186.18 197.45 207.26 4.37 4.31 4.21 4.14 4.23 4.32 4.28 120.16 126.43 133.97 137.27 137.37 137.13 144.03 152.75 157.30 158.59 115.72 124.18 128.66 126.17 122.21 55.51 57.32 59.61 59.68 56.99 55.93 55.84 59.07 61.69 62.46 65.18 68.06 69.46 68.65 132.36 142.13 153.94 155.07 151.28 1,534.86 1,652.73 1,757.35 1,807.05 1,801.80 208.19 219.37 232.33 237.97 238.46 4.06 3.88 3.90 3.72 3.50 3.43 3.42 139.85 136.97 136.73 135.98 136.69 141.72 160.59 157.81 157.70 157.05 157.88 163.84 127.19 124.35 122.71 120.37 121.39 124.48 70.51 68.65 68.45 68.22 68.28 70.16 156.89 151.55 150.89 148.74 150.21 157.13 1,836.76 1,801.22 1,786.53 1,783.09 1,789.38 1,872.59 242.64 237.81 237.21 235.74 237.25 246.68 3.38 3.47 3.46 3.44 3.47 3.32 r Average of daily closing prices, Includes al! the" stocks {more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. Includes 30 stocks, 4 Includes 500 stocks. 5 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings2 Finance Utility Dow-Jones industrial average 3 Common st ock 5yields (peree u t ) Earningsprice ratio 12.66 11.96 11.60 8.03 10.02 8.15 8.12 r 8.35 7.07 price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first 7 months of fiscal 1986, there was a deficit of $126.4 billion compared with a deficit of $118.6 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,000 RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS V 1,000 900 900 800 800 "OUTLAYS 1 700 700 600 600 RECEIPTS 500 500 400 400 -100 -200 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1986 1985 1987 FISCAL YEARS IX INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES; DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Fiscal year or period Receipts Outlays Off-budget On-budget Total Surplus or deficit Receipts Outlays (-) Surplus of deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) 1975 1976 Transition quarter 1977 1978 1979 279.1 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 332.3 371.8 96.0 409.2 458.7 503.5 53.2 -73.7 -14.7 -53.6 -59.2 -40.2 216.6 231.7 63.2 278.7 314.2 365.3 271.9 302.2 76.6 328.5 369.1 403.5 -55.3 -70.5 -13.3 -49.7 -54.9 38.2 62.5 66.4 18.0 76.8 85.4 98.0 60.4 69.6 19.4 80.7 89.7 100.0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 851.8 -73.8 -78.9 -127.9 -207.8 -185.3 403.9 469.1 474.3 453.2 500.4 476.6 543.0 594.3 661.2 686.0 72.7 -73.9 120.0 -208.0 -185.6 113.2 130.2 143.5 147.3 166.1 114.3 135.2 151.4 147.1 165.8 -1.1 -5.0 -7.9 734.1 777.1 850.4 946.3 979.9 994.0 -212.3 -202.8 -143.6 547.9 579.2 636.1 769.5 795.2 795.4 -221.6 -216.0 -159.3 186.2 197.9 214.3 434.9 448.3 553.5 574.7 -118.6 -126.4 327.7 331.5 451.1 472.4 -123.4 -140.9 107.1 116.8 1985 1986 1987 1 1 Cumulative total, first 7 months: Fiscal year 1985 Fiscal year 1986 1 Estimates. NOTE.—Data from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1987, Office of Management and Budget, except cumulative monthly totals from Monthly Treasury Statement. 32 Gross Fee eral debt (end of period) Total Held by the public 544.1 631.9 646.4 709.1 780.4 833.8 396.9 480.3 498.3 551.8 610.9 644.6 .3 914.3 1,003.9 1,147.0 1,381.9 1,576.7 715.1 794.4 929.4 1,141.8 1,312.6 176.8 184.7 198.6 9.4 13.2 15.7 1,827.5 2,112.0 2,320.6 1,509.9 1,714.0 1,855.7 102.4 102.4 4.8 14.4 1,737.1 2,012.6 1,435.6 1,651.7 2.0 -3.2 -1.4 -3.9 -4.3 2.0 .2 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 7 months of fiscal 1986, receipts were $13.4 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $21.2 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 400 — 400 INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES RECEIPTS!/ 300 300 ^^•"*""" 200 Qri(-|Al INSURANCE IMQIIDi SOCIAL TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS 200 CORPORATION INCOME TAXES_ 100 100 0 0 700 700 -OUTLAYS^/ - " 600 NONDEFENSE 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 NATIONAL DEFENSE 200 200 100 100 1978 1979 1982 1981 1980 1983 1984 1985 1987 1986 FISCAL YEARS _l/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] 0n-budget a nd off-buc £et receip s Fiscal year Total Individual Corporation On-bud wet and of -budget on tlays Nationa defense Social insurance Other Depart- Total contributions 1976 1977 1978 1979 298.1 88.1 97.2 104.5 116.3 95.3 102.3 113.7 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 134.0 157.5 185.3 131.0 153.8 180.7 209.0 239.4 50.6 69.5 69.3 65.6 71.8 851.8 209.9 227.4 61.3 70.9 86.7 265.2 280.4 302.8 73.0 72.1 74.9 946.3 979.9 994.0 35.4 35.1 149.2 161.9 41.7 42.8 553.5 574.7 34.3 36.6 37.7 40.8 244.1 285.9 297.7 288.9 298.4 64.6 61.1 49.2 37.0 56.9 157.8 182.7 201.5 850.4 334.5 353.7 386.0 434.9 448.3 208.6 208.4 1985 1986 * 1987 l 734.1 777.1 1 89.6 90.8 106.5 121.0 138.9 517.1 Cumulative total, first 7 months: Fiscal year 1985 Fiscal year 1986 371.8 409.2 458.7 503.5 41.4 54.9 60.0 65.7 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 Health Medi- Income securi- Social securi- Net inter- tv ty est Other military 131.6 157.6 181.0 217.8 355.6 399.6 463.3 International Total and Estimates. 6.4 6.4 7.5 7.5 15.7 17.3 18.5 20.5 15.8 19.3 22.8 26.5 60.8 61.0 61.5 66.4 73.9 85.1 93.9 104.1 35.4 42.6 82.8 93.0 114.7 119.6 86.5 99.7 107.7 122.6 52.5 68.7 85.0 89.8 111.1 131.4 133.5 125.4 122.3 118.6 26.7 29.9 23.2 204.4 220.8 12.7 13.1 12.3 11.8 15.9 28.6 30.4 32.1 39.1 46.6 52.6 57.5 112.7 118.5 139.6 156.0 170.7 178.2 252.7 265.8 282.2 245.4 258.4 274.3 16.2 17.1 18.6 33.5 35.7 35.0 65.8 68.7 70.2 128.2 118.1 118.4 188.6 200.1 212.2 129.4 142.7 148.0 131.8 131.7 109.3 142.4 138.0 157.0 152.5 9.8 7.5 19.3 20.4 38.0 40.0 81.1 73.4 107.6 112.9 75.2 81.1 80.1 82.4 26.9 27.4 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. NOTE.—Data shown here exclude the transition quarter. Data from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1987, Office of Management and Budget, except cumulative monthly totals from Monthly Treasury Statement. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the first quarter of 1986, according ;o preliminary estimates. Federal receipts fell $0.6 billion (annual rate) and expenditures fell $17.0 billion, yielding a deficit of $210.5 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 600 400 1982 1978 1986 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal G overnment expenditure s Federal Governmeiit receipts Period Total Fiscal year: 1983 1984 1985 Calendar year: 1983 1984 1985 1982: HI IT 1983: I n m IV 1984: I n Ill IV 1985: I n m IV 1986: I r Personal tax and nontax receipts 644.6 710.1 773.1 292.9 658.1 725.1 784.7 630.3 633.1 636.3 665.2 659.7 671.1 709.4 721.8 727.1 742.1 789.7 754.9 790.7 803.5 802.9 295.0 311.3 350.7 298.1 303.0 297.1 304.2 286.2 292.5 297.8 303.9 315.7 327.8 363.9 321.3 355.4 362.1 356.0 304.0 345.2 299.5 342.2 347.4 352.2 373.0 85.7 90.7 97.8 90.6 109.7 128.7 21.2 23.5 21.4 0.4 — .1 .1 -188.9 -165.5 -190.1 284.8 312.9 355.4 275.3 293.2 287.1 287.0 286.0 279.2 285.6 314.8 318.5 332.9 334.4 337.8 364.8 384.7 357.8 348.5 355.1 379.8 329.1 347.4 344.4 350.8 346.6 352.3 350.5 351.9 356.2 361.9 374.1 376.7 383.5 384.8 388.5 86.2 93.6 99.0 83.3 84.5 85.8 85.8 87.1 86.2 91.3 93.0 93.0 97.3 95.7 97.6 100.6 102.0 111.0 94.3 115.5 129.2 87.1 87.2 88.0 91.1 96.8 101.2 107.2 110.4 119.5 124.8 126.4 130.1 127.1 133.0 135.1 23.2 21.1 21.1 — .4 .2 -.2 -179.4 -172.9 14.3 23.4 .0 .0 18.8 19.8 22.5 31.6 .0 -1.3 — .4 54.5 73.6 67.6 50.2 247.0 277.6 304.0 833.5 288.2 875.6 963.2 59.3 74.4 51.6 55.8 57.0 47.1 47.6 46.3 52.8 53.7 53.6 54.6 55.8 56.7 56.2 55.5 60.2 55.4 56.9 62.1 252.2 283.6 837.5 898.0 984.7 789.1 835.7 824.2 835.8 839.4 850.6 867.2 884.9 905.2 934.7 952.4 964.0 992.0 1,030.4 1,013.4 67.1 50.1 46.4 46.5 58.2 66.4 66.1 78.9 80.1 69.4 69.2 65.9 65.0 68.9 68.5 61.3 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 34 Net interest paid Contributions for social insurance 54.9 56.4 309.9 235.0 236.1 246.5 250.1 253.4 258.8 278.1 282.0 285.4 288.9 304.4 308.4 311.0 315.9 323.5 or deficit Transfer payments Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Total Subsidies less current surplus of Government enter- Grantsin-aid to State and local governments Purchases of goods and services Corporate profits tax accruals 32.7 15.1 18.0 18.5 21.9 20.9 15.9 25.9 21.0 Less: Wage accruals less disbursements .0 .2 .2 .0 .6 .1 -1.0 .0 .0 .0 national income and product accounts -200.0 -158.8 -202.6 -187.9 -170.6 -179.7 -179.5 -157.8 -163.0 -178.1 -192.7 -162.6 -209.1 -201.3 -226.9 -210.5 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Consume r prices (] 967 = 100) Industrial reduction (1977=1 X); seasonal] ' adjusted Period United States Canada Japan France 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985" 110.7 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.8 124.5 109.8 108.1 109.0 97.4 102.9 112.0 116.8 113.7 118.9 120.1 120.6 124.7 1985: Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 124.1 124.1 124.3 124.1 125.2 125.1 124.4 125.4 126.4 115.0 115.0 116.4 118.1 118.1 118.0 119.1 ' 120.1 ' 120.3 144.5 148.2 145.1 147.8 146.0 144.6 145.7 144.1 145.1 r r 144.4 144.5 r 1979 ,. ' 126.7 125.7 ' 124.9 125.1 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr p 1 120.2 121.0 Germany Italy 107 107 105 102 108.7 114.7 107 106 103 101 102 105 106 103 106 112 112.1 109.6 103.9 107.1 108.4 105 104 108 108 105 107 109 104 110 111 113 116 112 112 116 117 110 ' 107.6 ' 108.5 r lll.l ' 107.3 ' 105.8 ' 110.6 ' 106.9 ' 110.9 ' 106.6 !04 113 113 r 138.4 144.8 !05 105 Data relate to all urban consumers. United Kingdom United States ' 107 217.4 246.8 272.4 289.1 298.4 311.1 322.2 221.0 243.5 273.9 303.5 108.3 111.2 100 96 98 101 103 108 109 109 108 108 108 r !09 !08 r 110 108 r !08 110 Canada Italy United Kingdom Japan France Germany 321.0 335.0 348.3 261.3 282.3 296.2 304.1 309.7 316.6 323.0 259.1 294.2 332.7 373.1 407.9 439.5 465.1 166.9 175.8 186.9 196.8 203.3 208.2 212.7 328.5 398.0 472.4 549.4 631.8 698.8 764.7 359.0 423.6 473.9 514.7 538.3 565.1 599.4 320.1 321.3 322.3 322.8 323.5 324.5 325.5 326.6 327.4 345.7 346.5 348.3 349.5 350.1 350.5 351.7 353.1 354.7 321.9 323.3 323.5 323.8 320.7 323.8 328.4 325.0 325.2 462.2 464.5 466.4 468.2 468.7 469.2 470.6 471.5 472.1 212.9 213.1 213.3 212.9 212.2 212.6 212.9 213.3 213.5 756.1 760.6 764.4 766.7 768.2 771.3 780.6 786.1 791.6 600.6 603.4 604.7 603.5 605.1 604.8 605.8 607.9 608.7 328.4 327.5 326.0 325.3 356.3 357.7 358.5 359.1 325.8 324.4 323.5 472.6 471.7 472.9 213.8 213.3 212.8 795.6 801.2 804.4 610.0 612.2 613.0 619.0 Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Trade Administration). U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data for statistical month, not seasonally adjusted*] Merc landise imports Merc landise expo ts ' Total foreign exports Total 2 Food, beverages, and tobacco Crude materials and fuels Mercha ndise trade lalance Ger era! import a 3 Domestic exports factored goods Total 2 Food, beverages, and tobacco Crude materials and fuels Exports „ factured goods value) 6,379 8,360 9,352 10,427 13,368 15,504 18,519 21,415 less imports (customs value) Exports Exports imports (f.a.s.) imports (c.i.f.) I .a.s. valu e Monthly average: 1977 1978 1979 1980 10,103 11,973 15,155 18,386 9,919 11,762 14,886 18,043 1,330 1,717 2,049 2,534 1,548 1,746 2,352 2,810 6,679 7,873 9,716 11,991 12,533 14,563 17,455 20,406 1,186 4,463 1,312 1,478 1,546 4,325 5,949 7,831 2,430 -2,590 2,300 -2,020 -3,265 3,530 -3,364 3,030 Customs value 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: Mar* Apr* May* June* July* Aug* Sept* Oct* Nov* Dec* 1986: Jan* Feb* Mar* Apr* .-. 19,473 17,683 16,707 18,155 17,762 19,075 17,256 16,326 17,670 17,244 2,767 2,248 2,248 2,276 1,852 2,752 2,793 2,463 2,624 2,362 12,857 11,643 11,034 11,929 12,115 21,748 20,329 21,504 27,144 28,773 1,529 1,485 1,568 1,802 1,865 7,739 6,200 5,670 6,063 5,415 11,873 12,002 13,621 18,460 20,565 22,779 -2,275 2,647 21,240 22,490 -4,797 8,988 28,431 30,136 -11,011 3,306 -3,558 -5,783 - 10,276 -12,373 20,330 17,973 18,337 18,012 16,727 16,584 17,034 17,618 17,721 16,994 19,765 17,492 17,816 17,433 16,172 16,106 16,543 17,122 17,227 16,479 1,973 1,913 1,603 1,614 1,604 1,783 1,709 1,836 2,128 1,907 2,562 2,441 2,261 2,122 2,033 2,258 2,115 2,285 2,559 2,459 14,245 12,228 12,992 12,759 11,556 11,233 11,700 12,102 11,688 11,221 28,725 28,572 29,302 30,136 27,000 26,247 31,349 28,429 30,010 30,728 2,128 1,804 1,919 1,912 1,641 1,719 1,903 1,598 1,865 2,138 4,383 5,772 5,700 6,054 5,085 4,851 5,562 5,656 5,657 6,011 21,301 20,080 20,725 21,268 19,286 18,916 22,887 20,271 21,557 21,654 30,107 29,907 30,712 31,596 28,312 27,512 32,860 29,695 31,371 32,141 -8,395 -10,599 -10,965 — 12,124 -10,274 -9,663 -14,315 — 10,811 12,290 -13,734 9,777 -11,935 -12,375 -13,584 -11,585 -10,927 -15,826 -12,077 -13,651 -15,146 17,006 17,735 18,913 17,965 16,501 17,164 18,349 17,376 1,797 1,689 1,706 1,475 2,467 2,367 2,349 2,436 11,393 12,182 13,325 12,615 32,005 28,895 31,972 2,215 1,908 2,100 6,234 4,741 4,284 22,477 21,289 24,261 33,465 -14,999 30,225 — 11,161 33,435 -13,059 30,036 -16,459 -12,491 -14,522 -12,071 1 Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginning January 1978. 2 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. 3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intranait shipments. NOTE.—Imports on c.i.f- basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods. Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Is- lands exports are reflected in the figures for domestic and foreign exports combined and trade balance. "Beginning with data released in March 1986, the Bureau of the Census no longer publishes these data on a seasonally adjusted basis. For further information and for details regarding revised statistical month and monthly carryover data, see Bureau of the Census release FT 900. Source; Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the fourth quarter of 1985 the current account deficit rose to $36.6 billion from $29.3 billion in the third quarter. The merchandise trade deficit rose to $39.5 billion from $33.0 billion in the third quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 10 10 BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES BALANCE ON ' CURRENT ACCOUNT V\ -^/ -5 —5 -10 MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE -10 \ _,,'' *' -15 -15 -20 -20 -25 -25 -30 -30 -35 -35 -40 1 1 1 -40 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1985 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits ( + ), debits { —)] 1 Inivestment incon,e 3 Merchandise ° Net Period Exports 184,473 224,269 237,085 211,198 201,712 219,916 213,990 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985" Imports N«* et balance -212,009 -27,536 — 249,749 -25,480 -265,063 -27,978 -247,642 -36,444 -268,928 -67,216 -334,023 -114,107 -338,279 -124,289 Receipts Payments 64,132 72,506 86,411 84,768 78,023 87,609 90,456 -32,960 -42,120 -52,329 -55,273 — 52,621 -68,500 -65,772 31,172 30,386 34,082 29,495 25,402 19,109 24,684 Net military transactions Net travel and transportation receipts -1,778 -2,935 -997 — 2,237 144 -1,183 -992 -318 -4,721 -162 -8,974 -1,765 -2,045 -11,741 Other services, net3 Balance on goods and services 1 Remittances, pensions, and other unilateral transfers 1 Balance on current account -991 4,659 -5,649 5,735 1,873 8,950 -7,077 7,277 6,339 -6,847 13,186 8,121 -8,051 -8,135 84 8,345 -45,994 9,557 -37,141 -8,852 -95,945 -11,413 -107,358 9,791 10,512 -102,880 — 14,784 -117,664 1983: I II HI IV 49,535 49,048 49,992 53,137 -58,418 -64,928 -70,689 -74,893 -8,883 -15,880 -20,697 -21,756 17,935 19,172 20,985 19,932 -12,283 -12,856 -13,588 -13,893 5,652 6,316 7,397 6,039 703 -71 -126 -669 -448 -1,116 -1,422 -1,735 2,260 2,462 2,290 2,544 -716 -8,289 -12,558 -15,577 -1,606 -1,875 -2,204 -3,166 — 2,322 -10,164 -14,762 -18,743 1984: 53,469 54,556 55,649 56,242 -78,091 — 84,181 -84,626 -87,127 — 24,622 -29,625 -28,977 -30,885 23,502 20,895 21,769 21,445 -15,268 -17,277 -18,513 -17,442 8,234 3,618 3,256 4,003 -346 -593 -250 -575 -1,753 -2,050 -2,574 -2,597 2,582 2,412 2,452 2,344 -15,905 -26,238 -26,093 — 27,710 -2,212 -2,232 -2,876 -4,095 — 18,117 — 28,470 -28,969 -31,805 55,198 53,530 52,276 52,986 -78,563 -82,017 -85,231 -92,468 -23,365 -28,487 -32,955 -39,482 18,861 22,270 24,896 24,428 -16,331 -16,892 -16,245 -16,304 2,530 5,378 8,651 8,124 -212 -586 -429 -818 -2,389 -3,090 -3,112 -3,150 2,425 2,587 2,541 2,956 -21,011 -24,198 -25,304 -32,370 -3,172 -3,428 -3,996 -4,189 -24,183 -27,626 -29,300 -36,559 I II m IV 1985: I II Ill TV P.... United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 36 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $8.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 1985 compared with an increase of $1.5 billion in the third quarter. Liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $20.5 billion, compared to an increase of $6.5 billion in the third quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 60 60 CHANGE IN FOREIGN ASSETS IN THE U.S..NET 40 40 l\ I \ 20 20 CHANGE IN U.S. ASSETS A BROAD, NET -20 -20 -40 -40 -60 -60 1977 1983 1982 1981 1980 1984 1985 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] U.S. assets Foreign assets in the 1 T.S., net [increase /capital inflox • ( + ) ] 2 abroad, net [ ncrease/capitiil outflow ( — ) Period U.S. Total 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985" official reserve assets 1 2 Other U.S. Government assets Total Foreign official assets Other foreign assets -59,453 -3,746 5,162 -72,802 -5,097 -100,758 108,122 6,131 -5,006 -48,843 -11,800 5,516 -2,628 -31,697 38,752 58,112 83,322 94,447 84,322 97,319 123,108 -13,665 15,497 4,960 3,672 5,795 3,424 -1,908 52,416 42,615 78,362 90,775 78,526 93,895 125,016 U.S. private assets Statistical c iscrepaney Allocations of special drawing rights (SDRs) 1,139 1,152 1,093 Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy U g official reserve assets, net l (unadjusted, end of period) 18,956 26,756 30,074 33,958 33,747 34,934 43,186 25,431 24,982 20,276 32,821 16,717 30,486 32,739 -64,331 -86,118 -111,031 -119,218 -55,045 — 20,447 — 38,183 -1,133 -8,155 5,175 -4,965 -1,196 -3,131 -3,858 1983: I II Ill -26,127 -1,128 -9,814 -17,976 -787 16 529 -953 -1,135 -1,263 -1,171 -1,436 -24,205 119 -9,172 — 15,587 15,158 15,608 19,539 34,017 -161 1,706 -2,666 6,916 15,319 13,902 22,205 27,101 13,291 -4,316 5,037 2,702 -680 83 -2,953 3,547 34,261 33,876 33,066 33,747 1984: I II -4,976 -18,988 18,364 -14,846 -657 -566 -799 -1,110 -2,059 -1,353 -1,369 -734 -2,260 — 17,070 20,532 13,003 19,277 41,592 3,140 33,310 -2,786 -224 -686 7,119 22,063 41,816 3,825 26,191 3,816 5,866 7,466 13,341 -455 -573 -3,274 4,305 34,975 34,547 34,306 34,934 -462 -2,551 -12,748 -22,421 -233 -356 -121 -3,148 -850 -853 -392 -532 621 -1,342 12,235 -18,742 13,711 26,313 34,548 48,536 -11,204 8,465 2,435 -1,604 24,915 17,849 32,113 50,140 10,934 3,863 7,500 10,444 -425 -597 -3,650 4,674 35,493 36,088 38,295 43,186 rv ni IV 1985: I II m TV... 1 Consists of go d, special drawi ng rights (SDRs , convertible cu rencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the IMt Sources: D epartment of C ammerce {Burea u of Economic ^ nalvsis) and De partment of the Treasurv. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures Nonfmancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force , Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices—AH Urban Consumers Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets Consumer Installment Credit Bank Loans and Securities, and Reserves Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfmancial Corporations Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless other-wise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: p Preliminary. r Revised. ' Corrected. ... Not available (also, not applicable). NSA not seasonally adjusted. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, B.C. 20402. Price $2.50 (single copy) ($3.13 foreign). Subscription price: $27.00 per year; $33.75 for foreign mailing. 38 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1986 0—60-724