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99th Congress, 2d Session

Economic Indicators
MAY 1986
Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the




Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1986

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
DAVID R. OBEY, Wisconsin, Chairman
JAMES ABDNOR, South Dakota, Vice Chairman
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana)
PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland)
AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California)
JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York)
FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California)
CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio)
DAN LUNGREN (California)
OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine)
BOBBI FIEDLER (California)

SENATE
WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)
STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho)
MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia)
ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York)
PETE WILSON (California)
LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas)
WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin)
EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)
PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland)

SCOTT LILLY, Executive Director
ROBERT J. TOSTERUD, Deputy Director

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
BERYL W. SPRINKEL, Chairman
THOMAS G. MOORE, Member
[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the
Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that
a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant
at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two
copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the
Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for
distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies
printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.
Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.50 a single copy
($3.13 foreign), or by subscription at $27.00 per year ($33.75 for foreign
mailing) from:

SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402

11




TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
According to revised estimates for the first quarter, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 6.3 percent
(annual rate) or $62.0 billion. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 3.7 percent and the implicit price
deflator rose 2.5 percent.
BILLIO sIS OF DOLLAR S (RATIO SCAL E)
4,400

B LLIONS OF DO LLARS (RATIO S CALE)
'4,400

SEASONA LY ADJUSTED ANNU/ I R A T E S

^*

4,000

4,000

—|
^--"1

™~

GhIP
^— IN CURREN F DOLLARS —?

3,600
-

**"

„. 3,600

.«*
'•-"-•

.

-

V ^x— ^,'

3,200

•^""\

---|
~*--^»-«s»«—

,"j-'

,
.

,'""

3,200

Gh IP
IN 1982E)OLLARS

.X—

-

/^^

2,800

2,800

^
2,400

-/

2,400

^
2,000

2,000

1,600

I

1 1
1978

1

1

\

1

1 !
1980

1979

\

1

1

1

1981

1

1

1982

1

1

1

1983

1

1

\

1

\

\

1985

1984

council o

SOURCE DEPARTMEN OF COMMERCE

i \ \

1,600

1986
ECONOMIC ADVISER

[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1982: HI
IV
1983: I
II
Ill
IV
1984: I
II
Ill
IV
1985: I
11

Gross
national
product

2,249.7
2,508.2
2,732.0
3,052.6
3,166.0
3,401.6
3,774.7
3,988.5
3,179.4
3,212.5
3,268.7
3,365.1
3,437.5
3,535.0

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Gross
private
domestic
investment

1,403.5
1,566.8
1,732.6
1,915.1
2,050.7
2,229.3
2,423.0
2,582.3

416.8
454.8
437.0
515.5
447.3
501.9
674.0
669.3

2,065.6
2,117.0

452.2
409.6
425.0
483.7
521.2
577.6

m
IV

1986:

3,676.5
3,757.5
3,812.2
3,852.5

2,146.0
2,210.1
2,254.9
2,306.3
2,358.6
2,414.4
2,439.0
2,480.1

3,917.5
3,960.6
4,016.9
4,059.3

I'

4,121.3




Federal
Net
exports

Exports

Imports

4.1
18.8
32.1
33.9
26.3
-5.3
-59.2
-78.5

227.5
291.2
351.0
382.8
361.9
354.1
384.6
369.9

223.4
272.5
318.9
348.9
335.6
359.4
443.8
448.4

425.2
467.8
530.3
588.1
641.7
675.7
736.8
815.4

161.8
178.0
208.1
242.2
272.7
284.8
312.9
355.4

108.9
121.9
142.7
167.5
193.8
215.7
237.0
261.9

52.9
56.1
65.4
74.8
78.9
69.2
76.0
93.6

263.4
289.9
322.2
345.9
369.0
390.9
423.9
460.0

14.5
14.1

359.9
335.9

647.1
671.8

275.3
293.2

197.3
205.4

78.0
87.7

371.8
378.7

28.4
-2.6
-19.7
-27.4

344.6
345.0
358.0
368.8
375.4
382.3
391.4
389.5

345.4
321.9
316.2
347.5
377.6
396.2

669.3
673.8
681.1
678.6

287.1
287.0
286.0
279.2

209.4
214.5
215.8
222.9

77.8
72.5
70.2
56.2

382.2
386.9
395.1
399.4

412.8
447.6
453.3
461.7

228.3
235.8
236.2
247.5
249.5
256.0
269.9
272.1

410.9
420.3
428.8
435.5

84.9
81.7
95.0
112.6

442.8
457.1
467.7
472.5

3,899.0
3,945.0
4,016.7
4,063.6

477.2

836.6

285.6
314.8
318.5
332.9
334.4
337.8
364.8
384.7
357.8

57.3
79.0
82.2
85.4

421.9
439.5
451.0
481.2

696.5
735.1
747.3
768.4
777.2
794.8
832.5
857.2

3,311.4
3,370.6
3,440.3
3,509.5
3,584.4
3,688.7
3,743.9
3,813.5

269.0

88.7

478.8

4,083.9

-37.4
-65.3
-61.9
— 72.2

2,525.0
2,563.3
2,606.1
2,634.8

658.8
673.3
687.9
676.2
657.6
672.8
666.1
680.7

-42.3
-70.3
-87.8
-113.4

2,669.1

715.4

-99.8

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Govern ment pure] ases of
goo s and senaces

Exports ind imports of goods
ind services

379.6
369.2
363.2
367.8
377.4

Total

National
defense

Nondefense

and

2,221.0
2,495.2
2,740.3
3,028.6
3,190.5
3,408.0
3,707.6
3,981.1
3,188.4
3,272.4

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS
[Billions of 1982 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gross privat e
dome stic investrnent

Ex sorts of goods
8 nd service

Govern ment purch ases of
gooc s and serv ices

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Nonresidential
fixed

Residential
fixed

Change
in
business
invento-

,

3,115.2
3,192.4
3,187.1
3,248.8
3,166.0
3,277.7
3,492.0
3,570.0

1,961.0
2,004.4
2,000.4
2,024.2
2,050.7
2,145.9
2,239.9
2,313.0

362.1
389.4
379.2
395.2
366.7
360.1
430.3
472.0

178.0
170.8
137.0
126.5
105.1
148.7
168.3
171.2

36.8
15.0
-6.9
23.9
24.5
-5.5
62.7
5.7

-26.8
3.6
57.0
49.4
26.3
-19.4
-85.0
-108.4

312.6
356.8
388.9
392.7
361.9
349.4
370.9
359.9

339.4
353.2
332.0
343.4
335.6
368.8
455.9
468.3

604.1
609.1
620.5
629.7
641.7
647.8
675.9
716.4

233.7
236.2
246.9
259.6
272.7
275.5
292.5
322.6

160.7
164.3
171.2
180.3
193.8
207.3
220.3
235.7

73.0
71.9
75.7
79.3
78.9
68.3
72.3
86.9

370.4
373.0
373.6
370.1
369.0
372.2
383.3
393.8

3,078.4
3,177.4
3,194.0
3,225.0
3,190.5
3,283.1
3,429.3
3,564.3

1982: HI
IV

3,154.5
3,159.3

2,051.8
2,078.7

358.0
352.3

100.1
115.8

-9.4
-59.3

11.7
11.7

359.5
336.0

347.8
324.3

642.5
660.1

273.8
289.5

197.0
201.4

76.9
88.2

368.6
370.6

3,164.0
3,218.6

1983: I

3,190.6
3,259.3
3,303.4
3,357.2

2,096.4
2,137.2
2,161.8
2,188.1

337.5
346.9
363.4
392.9

127.2
145.8
161.6
160.4

-42.2
-3.7
1.4
22.6

22.5
-15.0
-36.2
-48.9

342.8
342.4
353.1
359.1

320.3
357.4
389.3
408.0

649.1
648.2
651.5
642.2

279.2
277.6
277.4
267.9

203.8
206.9
206.5
211.8

75.4
70.6
70.9
56.1

369.9
370.6
374.1
374.3

3,232.8
3,263.0
3,302.1
3,334.6

3,449.4
3,492.6
3,510.4
3,515.6

2,210.9
2,243.0
2,243.4
2,262.0

398.8
426.8
437.6
457.8

166,6
170,0
170.8
166.0

83.6
66.0
64.9
36.1

-60.6
— 90.4
-88.7
- 100.2

362.7
366.6
376.9
377.3

423.3
457.0
465.6
477.5

650.1
677.1
682.4
693.9

271.4
294.8
296.7
307.3

214.1
219.6
219.6
227.9

57.3
75.2
77.1
79.5

378.6
382.4
385.7
386.6

3,365.7
3,426.6
3,445.5
3,479.5

1985: I

n
m
rv

3,547.8
3,557.4
3,584.1
3,590.8

2,288.6
2,303.5
2,329.6
2,330.4

457.2
470.9
473.7
486.5

166.7
169.6
173.1
175.5

15.8
15.1
-1.8
-6.3

-71.8
-101.1
-119.8
- 140.8

368.7
358.2
353.5
359.2

440.5
459.3
473.3
500.0

691.4
699.4
729.2
745.5

304.3
305.9
331.1
349.0

226.7
231.5
243.3
241.3

77.6
74.3
87.9
107.7

387.1
393.6
398.1
396.5

3,532.0
3,542.3
3,585.8
3,597.1

1986: I r

3,623.5

2,354.3

469.8

177.8

33.0

-130.3

368.4

498.6

718.8

319.7

239.1

80.7

399.1

3,590.5

Period

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

n

Ill
IV
1984: I

n
m
IV

Gross
national
product

Federal
Net
exports

Exports

Imports

Total
Total

National
defense

Nondefense

State
and
local

Final
sales

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
[1982 — 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]
Gross ]Jrivate
domestic i ivestment

Personal c onsumption
expenditures
Period

national
product

Exports an imports of
goods am services

Gove -nment pure lases of goo ds and
sernces
Federal

Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable goods

Services

dential

Residential fixed

Exports

Imports

National
defense

Nondefense

State
and local

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

72.2
78.6
85.7
94.0
100.0
103.8
108.1
111.7

71.6
78.2
86.6
94.6
100.0
103.9
108.2
111.6

76.9
82.1
89.2
95.7
100.0
102.1
103.9
104.7

71.9
80.0
89.4
96.9
100.0
102.0
105.4
107.7

69.8
75.6
83.9
92.6
100.0
105.7
111.5
116.8

71.5
77.8
85.1
93.4
100.0
98.9
99.4
100.9

72.6
81.4
89.4
96.6
100.0
102.2
106.4
108.4

72.8
81.6
90.2
97.5
100.0
101.4
103.7
102.8

65.8
77.1
96.0
101.6
100.0
97.5
97.4
95.8

69.2
75.4
84.3
93.3
100.0
103.4
107.0
110.2

67.8
74.2
83.4
92.9
100.0
104.0
107.6
111.1

72.4
78.0
86.4
94.3
100.0
101.3
105.1
107.7

71.1
77.7
86.2
93.4
100.0
105.0
110.6
116.8

1982: HI
IV

100.8
101.7

100.7
101.8

100.4
100.7

100.5
101.0

100.9
102.7

100.8
100.7

100.4
99.1

100.1
100.0

99.3
99.3

100.5
101.3

100.2
102.0

101.5
99.5

100.9
102.2

1983: I

102.4
103.2
104.1
105.3

102.4
103.4
104.3
105.4

101.3
101.6
102.4
103.1

100.7
101.9
102.4
103.1

103.9
105.0
106.2
107.8

100.1
98.9
98.3
98.4

102.0
100.3
103.2
103.1

100.5
100.8
101.4
102.7

98.7
97.2
97.0
97.1

102.8
103.4
103.1
104.2

102.7
103.7
104.5
105.3

103.1
102.6
99.0
100.1

103.3
104.4
105.6
106.7

1984: I

106.6
107.6
108.6
109.6

106.7
107.6
108.7
109.6

103.4
103.9
104.1
104.2

104.5
104.8
105.5
106.6

109.2
110.8
112.5
113.5

98.8
99.2
99.6
100.1

103.6
106.5
107.6
107.9

103.5
104.3
103.8
103.2

97.5
98.0
97.3
96.7

105.2
106.8
107.3
108.3

106.6
107.4
107.6
108.6

99.9
105.0
106.7
107.5

108.5
109.9
111.2
112.7

1985: I

n
Ill
IV

110.4
111.3
112.1
113.0

110.3
111.3
111.9
113.1

104.9
104.8
104.6
104.4

106.7
107.5
107.6
109.1

114.7
116.1
117.4
118.7

100.5
100.7
101.0
101.2

107.7
107.9
108.2
109.7

102.9
103.1
102.7
102.4

95.8
95.7
95.3
96.2

109.9
110.4
110.2
110.2

110.1
110.6
110.9
112.8

109.4
110.0
108.1
104.5

114.4
116.1
117.5
119.2

1986: l r

113.7

113.4

105.0

108.2

119.9

102.2

111.2

102.4

95.7

111.9

112.5

110.0

120.0

n
m
IV

n
in
rv

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND
RELATED PRICE MEASURES
[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gr< SB national pr duct

Period

Constant
(1982)
dollars

Current
dollars

11.5

1979

Implicit
price
deflator

2.5
_ 2

1.9

3.7
7.4

-2.5
3.5

11.0
5.7
2.5

6.5
22
-3.2

4.2

.6

7.2
12.3

4.0

8.9
5.5
6.7
11.4
5.1

8.9
11.8
17.0
9.1
6.0
4.3
6.9
4.5
5.8
4.3
6.3

IV
1985: I
II
Ill
IV
1986: I r

8.7
9.0
9.4
6.3
4.0
4.3
3.5
5.6
4.1
3.3
3.5
4.0
4.1
5.2
4.4
3.8
3.4
3.5
3.5
2.6
3.7
2.0

9.7
6.4
3.8
4.1
3.3
5.8
3.6
2.8
3.2
3.5

8.9

m

Chain price
index

8.9
9.0

11.7

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1982: III
IV
1983: I
II
Ill
IV
1984: I
II

Personal consumption e penditures

2.1

.6
3.7
1.1
3.0
.7
3.7

4.7
5.0

3.8
3.8
3.7
3.0
3.3
2.9
3.3
2.5

NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter.

Fixedweighted
price index
(1982
weights)

Constant
(1982)
dollars

Current
dollars

11.6
10.6
10.5
7.1
8.7
8.7
6.6
8.5
10.3
5.6
12.5

8.5
9.3
9.3
6.2
4.0
4.3
3.6
5.5
4.0
3.2
3.8
4.0
4.3
5.1
4.3
3.7
3.5
3.5
3.6
2.7
3.9
2.3

8.4
9.4
9.4

9.8
4.1
6.9
7.4
6.2
6.8
4.5
5.3

Implicit
price
deflator

Chain price
index

9.2
10.9
9.2
5.7
4.0
4.3
3.4
6.3
4.8

8.8
10.5
9.0
5.6
4.0
4.3
3.4
6.3

2.4
4.0
3.5
4.3

2.2
4.2

5.0
3.4

5.1
3.7
4.0
3.6
2.7
3.7
2.4
4.6
1.3

2.3
4.2
3.8
4.4
5.2
3.8
4.2
3.6
2.7
3.8
2.6
4.6
1.4

2.2
-.2
1.2

9.2
10.7
9.2

1.3
4.6

5.7

4.4

3.3
2.1
5.3
3.4
8.0
4.7
5.0
4.2
5.9
.1
3.4

Fixedweighted
price index
(1982
weights)

3.9
4.1

3.1
6.2
4.4

4.2
3.4

4.8
2.6
4.6
.1

4.4

4.2

1.1

2.6

3.7
2.2

4.8

3.7
4.4

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND
PROFITS
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Curren .-dollar cos and profit per unit o output {doliars) 1

Gross d omestic
produ ct of
nonfin ancial
corporate business
(billions o f dollars)
Period
Current

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1982: HI
IV
1983: I
II

m

IV
1984: I

n
m

IV
1985: I

n

HI
IV
1986: I "
1

1,274.1
1,417.4
1,540.8
1,738.4
1,782.2
1,915.9
2,153.1
2,280.4
1,789.0
1,779.4
1,820.0
1,884.9
1,946.5
2,012.2
2,088.0
2,147.0
2,172.5
2,205.2
2,237.0
2,265.8
2,301.6
2,317.1
2,348.9

1982

1,789.8
1,840.4
1,807.9
1,837.2
1,782.2
1,866.9
2,039.3
2,095.8
1,777.8
1,760.2
1,793.1
1,842.5
1,891.2
1,940.8
2,005.0
2,043.0
2,048.2
2,061.0
2,077.3
2,087.2
2,106.9
2,111.7
2,127.3

Total
cost
and
profit 2

Capital
consumption
allowances
with
capital
consumption
adjustment

0.712
.770
.852
.946
1.000
1.026
1.056
1.088
1.006
1.011
1.015
1.023
1.029
1.037
1.041
1.051
1.061
1.070
1.077
1.086
1.092
1.097
1.104

0.073
.082
.095
.109
.125
.124
.119
.121
.127
.131
.128
.125
.124
.121
.119
.118
.119
.120
.120
.121
.121
.123
.123

Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1982 dol-

lars.
2

This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with
the decimal point shifted two places to the left.




Corpc rate profits with
inventory valuation a nd capital
consurr ption adjus tments
Indirect
business
taxes 3

0.064
.066
.077

.090
.094

.098
.099
.102
.094
.096
.096
.099
.099
.098
.098
.099
.100
.100
.100
.103
.102
.102
.105
3
4

Compensation of
employees

Net
interest

0.473
.523
.581
.632
.676
.679
.687
.710
.679
.685
.682
.678
.676
.680
.679
.682
.691
.697
.703
.709
.709
.719
.722

0.020
.024
.031
.037
.043
.039
.042
.041
.041
.042
.040
.039
.039
.039
.039
.041
.043
.044
.043
.042
.040
.039
.038

Total

0.082
.076
.068
.078
.063
.086
.108
.114
.065
.057
.070
.082
.092
.099
.106
.111
.107
.109
.111
.111
.120
.114
.117

Profits
tax
liability

0.037
.038
.037
.035
.026
.031
.035
.029
.026
.023
.023
.030
.035
.034
.038
.038
.032
.032
.029
.028
.030
.029
.025

Profits
after
tax 4

0.044
.038
.031
.044
.037
.055
.073
.085
.038
.034
.047
.053
.057
.065
.068
.073
.075
.077
.081
.083
.090
.085
.092

Output
per hour
of all
employees
(1982
dollars)

Compensation
per hour
of all
employees
(dollars)

17.358
17.221
17.096
17.194
17.318
17.940
18.323
18.283
17.375
17.402
17.699
17.899
18.046
18.113
18.321
18.416
18.308
18.260
18.266
18.255
18.382
18.272
18.260

8.219
9.002
9.939
10.861
11.699
12.179
12.593
12.985
11.804
11.928
12.069
12.138
12.191
12.315
12.448
12.552
12.645
12.733
12.839
12.950
13.040
13.138
13.180

Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies.
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor
iureau of Labor Statistics).

NATIONAL INCOME
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

National
income

Compensation of
employees1

Proprietor s' income
with in rentory
valuation a nd capital
consurnption
adjust ments

Farm

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1982: m
IV
1983: I
II
Ill
IV
1984: I

n
m
rv

2,203.5
2,443.5
2,518.4
2,718.3
3,039.3
3,211.3
2,528.4
2,548.2
2,603.6
2,678.9
2,747.4
2,843.5
2,967.7
3,021.1
3,064.2
3,104.4
3,155.3
3,192.2
3,228.0
3,269.9

1,638.2
1,807.4
1,907.0
2,025.9
2,221.3
2,372.5
1,918.4
1,931.1
1,962.4
2,001.5
2,041.8
2,097.6
2,160.9
2,204.8
2,241.2
2,278.5
2,320.4
2,356.9
2,385.2
2,427.5

1986: I"

3,315.6

' 2,462. 8

n
m
rv

1985: I

1

Total
Profits
before tax

!5.6

Inventory
valuation
adjustment

177.2
188.0
150.0
213.8
273.3
295.5
154.3
146.1
173.4
205.9
228.4
247.6
268.0
277.8
271.2
276.2
281.7
288.1
309.1
303.1

194.0
202.3
159.2
195.0
232.3
224.6
161.6
150.7
163.7
190.5
207.3
218.7
234.4
241.8
226.5
226.3
220.6
220.9
233.2
223.7

237.1
226.5
169.6
205.0
237.6
225.3
171.6
164.1
167.1
199.8
225.4
227.6
247.4
247.4
227.7
228.0
220.0
218.7
228.6
233.8

!8.9

' 235.7

314.2

235.3

218.0

r

Capital
consumption
adjust-

-43.1
-24.2
-10.4
-10.0
-5.4
-.6
-10.0
-13.4
-3.4
-9.3
-18.1
-8.9
-13.0
-5.6
-1.3
-1.6
.7
2.2
4.7
-10.1

6.6
13.3
13.6
12.8
10.8
13.8
12.0
15.8
13.3
14.8
11.9
11.0
11.6
11.9
10.0
9.7
11.0
13.8
14.5
15.9

160.1
156.1
150.9
178.0
201.6
221.0
151.7
159.8
167.2
175.5
182.3
187.1
195.9
199.7
204.5
206.3
212.9
218.1
225.3
227.6

Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.)

Profits wi th inventory valuation
adjustmei it and witho it capital
consu nption adjus tment

tion
adjustment

Nonfarm

20.5
30.7
24.6
14.3
32.1
21.2
22.9
28.5
18.7
11.8
6.6
20.0
44.4
29.4
27.8
26.6
26.5
22.8
12.2
23.3
r

Corpora e profits wit i inventory valuation anc capital
consunnption adjust ments

Rental
income of
persons
with
capital

r

!7.3

Net
interest

-16.8
-14.4
-9.2
18.8
41.0
70.9
-7.3
-4.5
9.7
15.5
21.0
28.9
33.5
36.0
44.8
49.8
61.1
67.2
75.9
79.4
r

78.9

200.9
248.1
272.3
273.6
300.2
287.4
269.1
266.9
268.5
269.4
276.4
280.3
286.9
297.6
309.5
307.0
302.9
292.4
281.8
272.6
r

268.5

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION

EXPENDITURES

[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Non durable g( ods

Durablf goods

Period

con-

Motor
vehicles
and
parts

Furniture

Total
nondurable

expendi-

Total
durable
goods

IV

1,732.6
1,915.1
2,050.7
2,229.3
2,423.0
2,582.3
2,065.6
2,117.0
2,146.0
2,210.1
2,254.9
2,306.3
2,358.6
2,414.4
2,439.0
2,480.1
2,525.0
2,563.3
2,606.1
2,634.8

219.3
239.9
252.7
289.6
331.1
361.5
252.8
263.8
268.5
285.3
295.3
309.4
321.6
330.2
331.1
341.5
351.5
356.5
376.0
362.0

90.3
100.5
108.9
130.6
153.8
168.4
108.3
115.7
115.9
129.2
134.0
143.1
150.1
154.1
153.6
157.4
163.1
165.4
183.0
162.2

86.2
92.7
95.7
107.4
119.4
129.0
96.4
99.1
102.1
105.4
109.0
113.0
116.1
118.8
119.3
123.5
125.7
127.6
128.6
134.1

42.8
46.6
48.1
51.7
57.9
64.1
48.1
49.0
50.4
50.7
52.2
53.3
55.4
57.3
58.2
60.6
62.7
63.4
64.4
65.7

681.4
740.6
771.0
817.0
872.4
912.2
776.7
786.6
792.4
811.7
826.5
837.2
856.6
873.2
876.6
883.1
895.7
910.2
914.5
928.3

1986: I r

2,669.1

364.1

162.8

135.0

66.3

936.0

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1982: III
IV
1983: I

n
in

IV
1984: I
II
Ill
IV
1985: I
II

m

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




household
equipment

Other

Serv-

Retail ales of
new pa ssenger
cars (mi lions of
un ts)

Clothing and
shoes

Gasoline
and oil

349.1
376.5
398.8
422.0
451.7
474.0
402.7
407.0
413.1
419.0
426.0
430.0
440.0
449.9
457.1
459.6
465.5
472.1
475.9
482.5

109.0
119.9
124.4
135.2
147.4
156.0
125.0
126.5
129.4
135.0
135.5
140.9
144.4
149.1
146.4
149.7
152.8
156.3
155.7
159.4

83.7
92.7
89.1
90.1
90.7
91.8
88.6
89.8
86.5
89.4
92.5
92.1
92.0
91.9
89.1
89.8
89.3
92.9
92.2
93.0

139.5
151.6
158.7
169.6
182.6
190.3
160.4
163.4
163.3
168.3
172.6
174.1
180.2
182.3
184.0
184.1
188.2
188.9
190.7
193.4

831.9
934.7
1,027.0
1,122.7
1,219.6
1,308.6
1,036.1
1,066.5
1,085.2
1,113.0
1,133.1
1,159.6
1,180.4
1,211.1
1,231.3
1,255.4
1,277.8
1,296.6
1,315.6
1,344.6

6.6
6.2
5.8
6.8
8.0
8.2
5.6
6.0
6.0
6.9
6.9
7.4
8.1
8.2

7.0

2.2
2.5
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.6
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.7
2.4
2.7
3.0
3.3

488.3

162.0

87.7

197.9

1,369.0

7.9

2.8

Food

Other
Domestics

7.9
7.6

8.5
8.2
9.4

Imports

2.4

2.3
2.2
2.4
2.4
2.8

SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income rose $39.4 billion (annual rate) in April, following a rise of $5.8 billion in March. The large
increase in April was due to unusually large subsidy payments to farmers. Excluding these subsidy payments,
personal income rose $8.1 billion in April and $11.6 billion in March.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
3,800
3,200

BILMONS OF DOLIARS*(RAT!O SCAIE)
3,800
3,200

1,600

1,600

WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS

800

800

"

\

OTHER INCOME

400

400

~.-—<T
\

TRANSFER
PAYMENTS

200

1978

1980

1979

11 1 1 1 11
1983

Ml I II
1982

1981

200

1984

' SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1985

1986

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
r

Period

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982

1983
1984
1985
1985: Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan r.
Feb r.
Mar r
Apr"

Total
personal
income

Proprietor ' income 3

age an
Oth

disbursements

1,812.4
2,033.9
2,258.4
2,520.9
2,670.8
2,836.4
3,111.9
3,293.5

1,119.3
1,252.1
1,372.0
1,510.3
1,586.1
1,675.8
1,834.9
1,960.5

3,288.6
3,271.2
3,280.5
3,290.0
3,295.5
3,309.9
3,330.8
3,347.9
3,384.3

1,940.5
1,946.8
1,958.5
1,959.8
1,969.3
1,981.2
1,991.5
2,003.6
2,022.2

3,386.3
3,401.7
3,407.5
3,446.9

2,027.0
2,034.4
2,043.9
2,048.1

income

107.7
122.7
138.4
150.3
163.6

179.5
193.4
206.4
203.5
204.8
206.1
207.3
208.5
209.5
210.5
211.5
212.4
213.3
214.3
215.3
216.2

27.0
31.7
20.5
30.7
24.6
14.3

32.1
21.2
40.4
14.4
13.8
12.2
11.6
12.9
17.5
21.0
31.4
15.7
19.1
12.0
44.4

1
The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of
employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of
wage accruals over wage disbursements.
2
Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workers' injury
compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items.
3
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.




Less:
Persona]
contributions
for social
insurance

Nonfarm

Persona!
dividend
income

Persona]
interest
income

149.2
160.1
160.1
156.1
150.9
178.0
201.6
221.0

9.3
5.6
6.6
13.3
13.6
12.8
10.8
13.8

43.0
48.1

182.5
221.4
271.9
335.4
369.7
385.7
442.2
456.3

244.0
273.1
324.7
368.1
410.6
442.2
454.7
484.5

69.8
81.0
88.6
104.5
112.3
119.8
132.4
149.1

1,769.3
1,983.1
2,215.8
2,465.6
2,618.7
2,795.3
3,053.3
3,246.1

216.9
218.6
218.8
222.1
224.8
228.9
227.2
226.9
228.7

12.8
13.9
14.9
15.5
16.2
11.7
16.0
13.9
17.8
18.3
18.9
19.6
20.3

462.7
461.0
457.9
453.3
449.8
448.6
450.1
451.7
452.4

480.9
481.2
480.9
490.0
486.0
488.4
489.8
491.4
492.5

147.6
148.1
149.1
149.1

3,221.9
3,230.5
3,240.5
3,251.9
3,258.1
3,271.2
3,287.5
3,301.0
3,326.9

452.5
451.7
450.7
449.7

501.8
502.1
503.8
504.7

12

Farm

Transfer
pay- ^
ments 5

Bental
income of
persons 4

1 h

233.8
236.4
236.9
237.6

52.9
61.3
63.9
68.0
74.6
78.9
78.6
78.7
78.8
78.9
79.1
79.2
79.4
79.9
80.1
80.9
82.3
83.1
84.0

4

149.7
150.4
151.1
151.9
153.1
157.0
157.4
157.9
158.1

Nonfarm
personal
income 6

3,344.5
3,356.5
3,369.2
3,376.1

With capital consumption adjustment.
Consists mainlv of sociaJ insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments.
Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income,
and agricultural net interest.
5

6

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME
Real per capita disposable personal income rose again in the first quarter.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)

6,000

6,000

4,000

4,000
1986

1978
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RAIf
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

,

Period

Personal
income

Equals:
Disposable
personal
income

Personal
tax and
nontax
payments

Less:
Personal
outlays l

Equals:
Personal
saving

Per capita
disposable personal
incc me

Current
dollars

1982
dollars

1,812.4
2,033.9
2,258.4
2,520.9
2,670.8
2,836.4
3,111.9
3,293.5

1983
1984
1985

261.1
304.7
340.5
393.3
409.3
411.1
441.8
492.7

1,551.2
1,729.3
1,917.9
2,127.6
2,261.4
2,425.4
2,670.2
2,800.8

Current
dollars

1982
dollars

Do lars

B .llions of doL ars

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982

Per capita personal
consurnption
expemlitures

1,441.1
1,611.3
1,781.1
1,968.1
2,107.5
2,292.2
2,497.7
2,671.8

110.2
118.0
136.8
159.4
153.9
133.2
172.5
129.0

6,968
7,682
8,421
9,243
9,724
10,328
11,263
11,703

9,735
9,829
9,722
9,769
9,725
9,942
10,412
10,483

ercen
real per
capita
disposable
personal
income

„ .

percent of
disposable
personal
income

Population,
including
Armed
Forces
abroad
(thousands) 2

Per cent

6,304
6,960
7,607
8,320
8,818
9,493
10,221
10,790

8,808
8,904
8,783
8,794

8,818
9,138
9,448
9,665

3.8
1.0
-1.1
.5
— .5
2.2
4.7
.7

7.1

6.8
7.1
7.5
6.8
5.5
6.5
4.6

222,629
225,106
227,754
230,182
232,549
234,829
237,067
239,317

Seas onally adju sted annual rates

1982: III
IV
1983: I
II
HI
IV
1984: I
II

2,683.6
2,729.2

405.0
411.1

2,278.6
2,318.1

2,122.6
2,174.9

156.0
143.1

9,786
9,929

9,720
9,749

8,871
9,068

2,752.8
2,805.7
2,852.4
2,934.8

407.4
418.0
404.4
414.4

2,345.5
2,387.7
2,447.9
2,520.4

2,205.2
2,271.3
2,319.0
2,373.3

140.3
116.4
129.0
147.1

10,024
10,182
10,412
10,693

9,793
9,846
9,982
10,145

9,172
9,424
9,591
9,785

9,114
9,195
9,283

1.8
2.2
5.6
6.7

3,033.8
3,083.5
3,144.2
3,186.2

423.6
433.6
447.5
462.4

2,610.2
2,649.9
2,696.7
2,723.8

2,428.7
2,487.4
2,515.2
2,559.4

181.6
162.6
181.5
164.5

11,050
11,193
11,362
11,447

10,358
10,399
10,451
10,441

9,985
10,198
10,276
10,423

9,359
9,474
9,452
9,506

1985: I
H
Ill
IV
1986: I r

3,240.9
3,280.1
3,298.5
3,354.3

501.7
462.4
498.2
508.5

2,739.2
2,817.7
2,800.2
2,845.9

2,608.4
2,650.6
2,697.6
2,730.6

130.9
167.2
102.6
115.2

11,487
11,790
11,687
11,847

10,411
10,595
10,447
10,479

10,588
10,726
10,877
10,969

3,398.5

504.0

2,894.5

2,768.2

126.3

12,025

10,607

11,089

m
rv

1

Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net).




2

232,851
233,466

8.7
1.6
2.0
— .4

6.8
6.2
6.0
4.9
5.3
5.8
7.0
6.1
6.7
6.0

9,597
9,639
9,723
9,702

-1.1
7.3
-5.5
1.2

4.8
5.9
3.7
4.0

238,469
238,985
239,605
240,207

9,781

5.0

4.4

240,706

8,812
8,904
8,960

-0.7
1.2

233,981
234,509
235,117
235,707
236,222
236,742
237,349
237,953

Annua! data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).

FARM INCOME
In the first quarter of 1986, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income fell $20.9 billion (annual rate)
and net farm income fell $18.4 billion.
BILLIC NS OF DOLLAFiS * (RATIO SC ALE)

BILL ONS OF DOLL ARS * (RATIO S CALE)

240

240
200

200
160

---x>—

^-—
^\
^^

,„
v
1 ^ ~—^

r^.^
1

-^

—

\

S\

"-—
"1

X

""—

GRC)SS FARM INC(DME

80

80

60

60

40

40

1 \

/\
/

1-*"~"""S

"*-»^_ -

\
t

*

i
20

(\

V /

i

/

•i i/
\ ;

'

1

\
\

I

\
I

/

\

'

20

i

*

\l

1

\

\t

r*'~

\

1

1

t i
*i

N

\

\

"*--s. '

/

.

\V

i
1
S

. NET FARM vICOME
1

(

*i
V

10

\ 1

r i i
U

1

1 1
1978

1 1 i

1 1 1

1979

1980

!

l l
1981

I

! 1

1983

1982

!

1

!

1984

' SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMEN FOP AGRICULTURE

1

!

1

1

1985

1

1

1986

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
In come of farm ope rators from farmi ng
(jross farm incom

Period
Total l
Total

Ir

n rr
m
TV

1986: I"
1

r

Current
dollars

1982 dollars 3

7.8

27.4
31.7
20.2
29.8
24.6
15.0
34.5

38.0
40.3
23.6
31.8
24.6
14.5
31.9

72.2
64.1
73.3
57.6

-10.6
-13.9
-12.9
-4.9

135.1
134.9
135.5
136.9

17.8
8.7
16.2
17.3

17.4

15.5
16.4

75.5
70.8
71.2
73.5

63.8
68.2
70.3
74.2

2.0
8.7

10.3
10.2

139.2
140.2
140.0
138.5

36.5
27.0
33.6
41.2-

34.2
25.1
30.9
37.6

140.1
134.0
134.3
164.2

71.7
66.8
68.0
72.1

68.4
67.2
66.3
92.1

-1.6
— 4.1
-5.2

137.0
134.9
132.8
130.6

32.9
27.0
16.1
45.9

29.8
24.2
14.4
40.6

132.6

69.5

63.1

-4.2

128.2

27.5

24.2

59.2
69.2
68.0
69.2
70.3
69.4
72.7

53.0
62.3
71.8
72.9
72.7
66.8
69.1

143.2
133.0
141.2
127.6

71.0
68.9
67.9
70.0

139.3
139.0
141.5
147.6

169.9
161.9
148.9
176.5
155.6

Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash
income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms.
2
Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average
prices during the year.




inventory
changes 2

Production
expenses

101.0
119.0
129.4
138.1
136.9
135.6
139.5

112.2
131.5
139.8
142.1
142.9
136.3
141.8

175.7
167.3
173.7
179.8

I

n
in
IV

1985:

Crops

152.9
143.6
151.7
154.3

1

n
Ill
IV

1984:

Livestock and
products

128.4
150.7
149.6
166.0
161.6
150.6
174.0

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1983:

Net farni income

Cas h marketing rece pts

3

2.1
5.0

-5.9
5.8

-1.4
-10.6

2.8

Income in current dollars divided by the GNP implicit price deflator (1982=100).

NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Corporation loans and operator households.
Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce.

8.5

CORPORATE PROFITS
In the first quarter of 1986, according to preliminary estimates, corporate profits before tax fell $15.8 billion
(annual rate) and after-tax profits fell $7.2 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
320

SEASON ALLY ADJUSTED ANN JAL RATES

-

-

280

280

r - "^
- " '

/I

A

-

S'

\

r^

PROFITS BEFC3RE

\

^-/

7
-

^

Hi

"\

160

_S'^

V^""

'\
^-—--^

-

PROFITS AF rER TAX

1

,.--

,

^-""'s'

• .
s

_y
,

TAX LIABILITY

,\\ ,
,
\ " _. ^ •* ' ^"^X.--.
-\

~—-~

.

/

\_

*"\

160

\, - ~ - ^

\

,''"
80

\

\f

^
N

\

^-~~~-

X

».

\

TAX^_y

\

\ x ' '--'
V
\

""*"""*"»«, h"'

40

"

y"'
/

\
\_

/

"•

_

UNDISTRIBUT ED PROFITS

1

0

I i

\

1

1

1979

1978
aOURCE: DEPARTMEN

!

I I

1

1

1

1

1981

1980

1

1 1
1982

1

1

1983

1

1 1
1984

1

l

1 1
1985

OF COMMERCE

I !

40

0

1986

COUNCIL OF

CONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Prt fits (before t ax) with inve ntory valuati on adjustraen t 1

Profits after ta X

Do nestic indust ies
T

Total

2

Total

1979
1980
1981
1982

1983
1984
1985
1982: III
IV
1983: I
II

m

IV
1984: I
II
Ill
IV
1985: I

n
m

IV
1986: I"
1
2

Profits
before tax

Nonfinancial

Period

214.1
194.0
202.3
159.2
195.0
232.3
224.6

161.6
150.7
163.7
190.5
207.3

218.7
234.4

241.8
226.5
226.3
220.6
220.9
233.2
223.7
235.3

180.4

159.6
173.8
131.2
164.2
200.1
192.7
133.0
121.6
136.2
161.1
174.4
185.1
201.0
212.3
193.3
193.7
189.4
189.3
203.0

189.1
199.0

Financial

27.8
21.0
16.5
11.8
22.7
19.2
22.5
12.4
18.7
22.0
25.0
22.4
21.2
20.8
20.4
17.2
18.4
19.2
22.5
23.8
24.7
27.4

See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption t
Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.




Total 3

152.6
138.6
157.3
119.4
141.6

180.9
170.1
120.6
102.9
114.2
136.1
152.0
163.9
180.2
191.9
176.1
175.3
170.2
166.7
179.2
164.5
171.6

Manufacturing

87.5
77.1
88.5
58.0
71.3
88.5
76.6
64.3
46.8
52.3
64.6
78.9
89.2
94.2
94.9
82.2
82.7
77.3
73.4
79.7
76.1
69.7

Tax
liability

257.2
237.1
226.5
169.6
205.0
237.6
225.3

88.0
84.8

169.2
152.3

81.1
63.1
75.2
93.6
85.0
64.3
59.8
58.9
73.8
84.1
84.0
99.1
100.6
87.4
87.4
83.4
82.3
87.4
87.1
78.5

145.4
106.5
129.8
144.0
140.2
107.3
104.3
108.2
126.0
141.3
143.6
148.3
146.7
140.3
140.6
136.6
136.4
141.1
146.7
139.5

Total

Dividends

sale and
retail
trade

28.7
21.6

32.5
34.6
39.1
50.7
49.4
32.9
33.6
32.6
40.8
39.9
43.1
46.8
52.7
51.5
51.8
48.7
50.6
53.6
44.6
51.0
3

171.6
164.1
167.1
199.8
225.4
227.6
247.4
247.4
227.7
228.0
220.0
218.7
228.6
233.8
218.0

50.1
54.7
63.6
66.9
70.8
78.1
83.5
66.6
68.5
69.3
69.6
71.1
73.1
75.3
77.5
78.9
80.7
82.0
83.1
83.9
85.0
87.6

Includes industries not shown separately.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

.

Undistributed
profits

valuation
adjustment

119.1
97.6
81.8

-43.2
-43.1
-24.2
-10.4
-10.0
-5.4

39.6
59.0
65.9
56.7
40.7
35.8
38.9
56.4
70.3
70.6
73.1
69.2
61.3
60.0
54.6
53.3
57.3
61.7
52.0

-.6

-10.0
-13.4

-3.4
-9.3
-18.1
-8.9
-13.0
-5.6
-1.3
-1.6
.7
2.2
4.7

-10.1
17.3

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
According to revised estimates for the first quarter, business fixed investment fell $12.2 billion (annual rate) from
its fourth quarter level while residential investment outlays rose $5.3 billion. There was a $37.4 billion increase in
inventories following a decrease of $4.3 billion in the fourth quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
800

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
,800

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

700

700

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC
INVESTMENT

600

600

500

500

400

400

300

300

200

200

100

100

CHANGE IN BUSINESS
INVENTORIES
j
\J

f

-100

|

1

1978

1

1

\ 1 1

1979

1980

!

1 1
1981

1 1

! I
1982

1983

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1

i

1985

1

1984

1986

-100

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

1^Ixed investmen t
.

Period
investment

1979
1980
1981
1982

1983
1984
1985
1982: III
IV
1983: I
H
Ill
IV
1984: I
II

m
IV

1985:

I

n
in

IV
1986: I r

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Anaivsis.




Change i i business
inven Tories

Nonresident! al

P

T

Total
Total

454.8
437.0
515.5
447.3
501.9
674.0
669.3

441.9
445.3
491.5
471.8
508.3
607.0
661.8

302.8
322.8
369.2
366.7
356.3
427.9
476.2

452.2
409.6

461.2
469.5

360.7
354.9

425.0
483.7
521.2
577.6

467.7
489.2
524.0
552.1

338.0
343.0
357.3
386.8

658.8
673.3
687.9
676.2-

566.7
604.5
619.5
637.2

394.1
423.4
435.9
458.1

657.6
672.8
666.1
680.7

639.1
657.3
665.9
685.0

459.6
474.2
478.5
492.5

715.4

678.0

480.3

Structures

99.5
113.9
138.5
143.3
126.1
147.6

170.2
140.2
137.6
127.6
121.5
124.7
130.5
135.0
147.0
151.3
157.2
166.1
169.7
170.4
174.5
171.1

Producers'
durable
equipment

Residential

Nonfarm

Total

203.3
208.9
230.7
223.4
230.2
280.2
306.0

139.1
122.5
122.3
105.1
152.0
179.1
185.6

13.0
-8.3
24.0
-24.5
-6.4
67.1

220.5
217.3

100.5
114.7

-9.0
-59.9

210.4
221.5
232.6
256.3

129.7
146.2
166.7
165.4

-42.7
-5.5
-2.8
25.5

259.1
276.5
284.5
300.9

172.6
181.0
183.7
179.1

92.1
68.9
68.3
39.0

293.5
304.5
308.1
318.0

179.4
183.1
187.4
192.5

18.5
15.5

309.2

197.8

7.5

.2

-4.3
37.4

7.9

-2.4
18.3
-23.1
.8

58.0
11.8
-12.4
-51.1
-33.7
1.8
15.5
19.4
71.6
61.2
62.8
36.4
14.2
10.8
3.1
19.0
39.1

EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
According to the Commerce Department January-March 1986 survey, business spending for new plant and
equipment for the year 1986 is expected to be 2.3 percent above the 1985 level. Spending in 1985 was 9.0
percent above the 1984 level.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

500

500

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

400

400
ALL INDUSTRIES

300

300

200

200

r

NONMANUFACTURING

MANUFACTURING

100

100

80

80

60

60

40

40

1978

1979

1980

1982

1981

1984

1983

1985

1986

'Second Half

_i/ SURVEYED QUARTERLY
_i/SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW
SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADvrSERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Addenda

Industries surveyed quarterly

Nor manufactui ing

M anufacturi ig
All
industries

Total

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986*

217.76
254.96
282.80
315.22
310.58
304.78
354.44
386.41
395.13

78.58
95.92
112.33
126.54
120.68
116.20
138.82
153.15
151.84

39.46
48.50
55.36
59.81
55.35
53.08
66.24
73.14
70.99

39.13
47.42
56.96
66.73
65.33
63.12
72.58
80.01
80.86

1984: I
II
Ill
IV

337.95
349.97
361.48
368.29

129.91
135.96
142.44
146.96

61.23
64.03
68.26
71.43

1985:

m
rv

I
II

371.16
387.83
388.90
397.74

145.65
154.33
154.04
158.57

1986: I 4
II 4
2nd half 4

390.66
400.68
394.58

150.28
153.76
151.67

Period




Nonmanufactu ring

Surveyed
quarterly

Mining

Transportation

Public
utilities

139.18
159.04
170.47
188.68
189.89
188.58
215.61
233.26
243.28

11.22
12.81
15.99
21.39
20.05
15.19
16.86
15.88
13.89

13.36
16.05
16.60
15.84
14.79
13.97
16.52
17.97
19.02

31.50
35.63
37.74
41.21
45.43
44.96
47.48
48.74
48.50

83.09
94.56
100.14
110.24
109.63
114.45
134.75
150.67
161.88

68.68
71.93
74.18
75.53

208.04
214.01
219.04
221.33

17.24
16.38
16.82
17.00

15.29
17.01
17.49
16.28

47.08
47.94
47.92
46.92

128.42
132.67
136.80
141.13

129.91
135.96
142.44
146.96

69.87
73.96
72.85
75.87

75.78
80.36
81.19
82.70

225.51
233.51
234.86
239.16

15.66
16.51
15.94
15.40

16.22
17.50
19.09
19.06

48.46
48.47
48.14
49.89

145.17
151.02
151.69
154.81

145.65
154.33
154.04
158.57

225.51
233.51
234.86
239.16

71.11
72.71
70.06

79.17
81.04
81.61

240.38
246.93
242.92

14.11
14.30
13.57

18.90
18.95
19.11

48.62
48.80
48.29

158.74
164.88
161.94

150.28
153.76
151.67

Surveyed
annually a

208.04
214.01
219.04
221.33

240.38
246.93
242.92

Durable
goods

Nondurable
goods

Total 1

1
Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional sen-ices;
social services and membership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May
1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nonmanufacturing surveyed annually") for data for these industries.
2
"All industries" plus the part of nonmanufacturing that is surveyed annually.

10

Total
nonfarm
business 2

Commercial
and
other

245.34
284.94
314.47
349.26
347.47
343.35
398.99

Manufacturing

78.58
95.92
112.33
126.54
120.68
116.20
138.82
153.15
151.84

Total

166.76
189.02
202.15
222 72
226.79
227.15
260.16

139.18
159.04
170.47
188.68
189.89
188.58
215.61
233.26
243.28

27.58
29.98
31.68
34.04
36.89
38.56
44.55

3
Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services;
social services and membership organizations; and real estate.
4
Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in January-March 1986, corrected for
biases.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE
In April, seasonally adjusted civilian employment rose 104,000 and unemployment fell 77,000.
MILL! DNS OF PERSO NS*
120

MILL ONS OF PERSC3NS*
120

EASONALLY ADJUSTE 3

'—
.

116

^

—

—
^
~1

•^n

—

110

—

^"S—^-]

_

108

C^/ILIAN LABOR =ORCE

-~

-_-

104

•'"'

_

^/

104

—

/,'-''

•-S

100 ^^

100

^"'"

«•--*'*'"'

—

.-

w-

^ |
^
^—_X"^^

—

CIVILIAN
EMPLOYMENT

96

96
_
92

X"X

12

-

—

^-r^
"A

8
——~~_^_
4

^
— 12
^^
—,

^
I
JNEMPLOYME^JT

'

-^——^_

r-

— 4

—

Illllllllll Illllllllll
1979
1978

0

8

Illllllllll

1980

I l l l l l l l l l l I l l l l l l l l l l I l l l l l l l l l l Illllllllll Illllllllll lll|llll||l
1983
1986
1984
1985
1982
1981

0

•16 YEARS OF AGE A ND OVER
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA]

Period

1979

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985: Apr
May
June....
July ....
Aug
Sept ....
Oct
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan *...
Peb
Mar
Apr

Noninstitutional
population
including
resident
Armed
Forces
NSA

166,460
169,349
171,775
173,939
175,891
178,080
179,912
179,501
179,649
179,798
179,967
180,131
180,304
180,470
180,642
180,810
181,361
181,512
181,678
181,843

T hor force
.

Forces
NSA

Armed
Forces

1,597
1,604
1,645
1,668
1,676
1,697
1,706
1,702
1,705
1,702
1,704
1,726
1,732
1,700
1,702
1,698
1,691
1,691
1,693
1,695

106,559
108,544
110,315
111,872
113,226
115,241
117,167
116,958
117,044
116,726
116,976
117,069
117,522
117,814
117,832
117,927
118,477
118,779
118,900
118,929

.,

°

Employment
including
resident
Armed
Forces

100,421
100,907
102,042
101,194
102,510
106,702
108,856
108,574

108,644
108,303
108,575
108,936
109,251
109,513
109,671
109,904
110,646
110,252
110,481
110,587

Nonagricultural
Civilian
labor force

104,962
106,940
108,670
110,204
111,550
113,544

115,461
115,256
115,339
115,024
115,272
115,343
115,790
116,114
116,130
116,229
116,786
117,088
117,207
117,234

1
Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc.
2
Labor force as percent of noninstitutiona! population (both including resident Armed Forces).
3
Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population.




Unempl >yment

Civilian ernployment

Resident

Total

98,824
99,303
100,397
99,526
100,834
105,005
107,150
106,872
106,939
106,601
106,871
107,210
107,519
107,813
107,969
108,206
108,955
108,561
108,788
108,892

Agricultural

3,347
3,364

3,368
3,401
3,383
3,321
3,179
3,353
3,284
3,140
3,120
3,095
3,017
3,058
3,070
3,151
3,299
3,096
3,285
3,222

Total

95,477
95,938
97,030
96,125
97,450
101,685
103,971
103,519
103,655
103,461
103,751
104,115
104,502
104,755
104,899
105,055
105,655
105,465
105,503
105,670

Part-time
for
economic
reasons 1
3,373
4,064
4,499
5,852

5,997
5,512
5,334
5,402
5,550
5,278
5,328
5,413
5,299
5,241
5,295
5,294
5,275
5,158
5,301
5,621

Total

6,137
7,637

8,273
10,678
10,717
8,539
8,312
8,384
8,400
8,423
8,401
8,133
8,271
8,301
8,161
8,023
7,831
8,527
8,419
8,342

15
weeks
and
over

Labor force
partici mtion
rate (pe rcent)
Total 2

Civilian 3

1,241
1,871
2,285
3,485
4,210

64.0
64.1
64.2
64.3
64.4

2,737
2,305
2,374
2,274
2,328
2,329
2,274
2,307
2,277
2,205
2,188
2,056
2,340
2,258
2,135

64.7
65.1
65.2
65.2
64.9
65.0
65.0
65.2
65.3
65.2
65.2
65.3
65.4
65.4
65.4

63.7
63.8
63.9
64.0
64.0
64.4
64.8
64.8
64.8
64.6
64.7
64.7
64.8
65.0
64.9
64.9
65.0
65.1
65.1
65.1

* Data beginning January 1986 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of change in
estimation procedures.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

11

SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
In April, the seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate fell slightly to 7.0 percent and the civilian unemployment rate fell slightly to 7.1 percent.
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

25

25

\

e

\ ,-'\

20
,"*"

/

*

f~ \"'\

v

20

I
t

BLACK
/

\
V*

\y»

TEENAGERS
(16-19)

>"\ \

\

t

S'"

V

\'\

15
*

S

/
" '
BLACK
Ah D OTHER
10

*

15

.
'

»

V

~V,," ^ ^ '
V

'

^

10

-?'•'" "'^
"

lllllllllll
1982

ll!!!lllll!
1983

WOMEN 20 YEARS
AND OVER

ALL CIVILE N WORKERS

WHIIE

MEN 20 YEARS
AND OVER ,

ninliiui mniiiiii iniilmn
1984

1985

lUliLLli
1982

1986

1984

1983

1985

1986

'UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Unemp' oyment ra te (percen t of civilian labor force in group)

Period

1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

Unemployment
rate,
all
workers 1

By sex and age
• ]i
All
civilian
workers

Men
20 years
and over

Women
20 years
and
over

By s elected gron s

By race
Both
sexes
16-19
years

White

Black
and
other

Black

Experienced
wage and
salary
workers

Married
men,
spouse
present

Women
who
maintain
families

Pulltime
workers

Parttime
workers

8.8
8.8
9.4
10.5
10.4
9.3
9.3

6.3
7.9
8.5
11.0
10.9
8.6
8.1

5.8
7.0
7.5
9.5
9.5
7.4
7.1

5.8

7.1
7.6
9.7
9.6
7.5
7.2

4.2
5.9
6.3
8.8
8.9
6.6
6.2

5.7
6.4
6.8
8.3
8.1
6.8
6.6

16.1
17.8
19.6
23.2
22.4
18.9
18.6

5.1
6.3
6.7
8.6
8.4
6.5
6.2

11.3
13.1
14.2
17.3
17.8
14.4
13.7

12.3
14.3
15.6
18.9
19.5
15.9
15.1

5.5
6.9
7.3
9.3
9.2
7.1
6.8

2.8
4.2
4.3
6.5
6.5
4.6
4.3

8.3
9.2
10.4
11.7
12.2

10.4

5.3
6.9
7.3
9.6
9.5
7.2
6.8

io'.3

Labor
force
time lost
(percent) 2

1985:

Apr
May
June ....
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

7.2
7.2
7.2
7.2
6.9
7.0
7.0
6.9
6.8

7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.0
6.9

6.3
6.1
6.4
6.2
6.0
6.1
6.1
6.0
5.9

6.7
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.6
6.7
6.4
6.4
6.2

17.9
18.8
18.6
19.3
17.5
18.1
19.8
18.4
18.8

6.3
6.2
6.4
6.3
6.1
6.1
6.1
5.9
5.9

13.8
13.9
13.2
13.5
12.8
13.7
13.5
14.1
13.4

15.2
15.4
14.4
15.0
14.1
15.2
14.9
15.6
14.9

6.8
6.8
6.9
6.9
6.7
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.5

4.3
4.0
4.6
4.4
4.1
4.3
4.2
4.3
4.3

10.7
10.8
9.9
10.3
10.8
11.3
10.4
10.0
9.4

6.9
6.9
6.9
7.0
6.8
6.8
6.8
6.7
6.6

9.7
10.0
9.5
9.4
9.0
9.3
9.6
8.8
9.0

8.2
8.3
8.2
8.2
8.1
8.1
7.9
7.9
7.8

1986:

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr

6.6
7.2
7.1
7.0

6.7
7.3
7.2
7.1

5.7
6.2
6.2
6.0

6.1
6.7
6.6
6.4

18.4
19.0
18.2
19.6

5.7
6.4
6.2
6.1

12.8
13.3
13.3
13.6

14.4
14.8
14.7
14.8

6.3
6.8
6.7
6.7

4.3
4.5
4.5
4.2

9.9
9.9
10.1
9.4

6.4
6.9
6.9
6.7

8.4
9.4
9.1
9.6

7.6
8.1
8.1
8.1

1

Unemployed as percent of total iabor force including resident Armed Forces.
Aggregate hours lost by (he unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours.
2

12




Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE PROGRAMS
In April, the percentage of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 5-14
weeks rose, while the percentages out of work for 15-26 weeks and for 27 weeks and over fell. The mean and
the median duration of unemployment fell.

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*
70
REASO N FOR UNEMPLOYMEr-

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*

n

DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT

A

60

V^

A/

\

x.

—

50
JOB LOSERS

~*A .S"*^
\

A

~

40

40

—

30 -

iEENTRANTS

30

_ f
f

N

w

20

20

,

-'V N'

«*v

N! W ENTRANT i
^yS^S-

10

—

-

10

k^.—/Vv~ •^
»*c""**'**

^-N/~^-

JOB LEAVER!
Illllllllll

Illllllllll

1982

1983

1984

Illlllllll!
1985

iiiiiliini
1986

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

He ason for iineniployment:
percent distributi m

Dur ation of imemplojnnent

Period

Unemployment
(thousands)

I'ercent d stributio i

State
prograuns

Numberof
ks

Less
than
5
weeks

5-14
weeks

15-26
weeks

27
weeks
and
over

Average
(mean)

Medi-

Job
losers

7,637
8,273
10,678
10,717
8,539
8,312

43.1
41.7
36.4
33.3
39.2
42.1

32.3
30.7
31.0
27.4
28.7
30.2

13.8
13.6
16.0
15.4
12;9
12.3

10.7
14.0
16.6
23.9
19.1
15.4

11.9
13.7
15.6
20.0
18.2
15.6

6.5
6.9
8.7
10.1
7.9
6.8

51.7
51.6
58.7
58.4
51.8
49.8

1985: Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

8,384
8,400
8,423
8,401
8,133
8,271
8,301
8,161
8,023

41.9
42.6
41.6
42.1
41.7
42.0
41.6
42.7
42.1

29.9
30.6
30.4
30.0
30.6
30.2
30.8
30.2
30.7

12.2
12.5
12.4
12.9
12.8
12.5
12.8
11.0
12.1

16.0
14.3
15.5
14.9
15.0
15.3
14.8
16.1
15.1

16.1
15.0
15.5
15.5
15.5
15.5
15.4
15.7
15.4

6.8
6.7
6.8
7.1
7.2
6.9
7.0
6.9
6.9

1986: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr

7,831
8,527
8,419
8,342

42.4
41.8
42.3
42.9

31.3
30.8
31.1
31.8

12.4
13.5
13.0
11.9

13.9
14.0
13.7
13.4

14.9
15.3
14.4
14.3

6.8
6.9
6.8
6.5

Job
leavers

Insured
unemployment

Insured
unemployment,
all
regular
programs
(unadjusted) 1

Reentrants

New
entrants

11.7
11.2
7.9
7.7
9.6
10.6

25.2
25.4
22.3
22.5
25.6
27.1

11.4
11.9
11.1
11.3
13.0
12.5

3,350
3,047
4,061
3,396
2,476
2,616

488
460
583
438
377
397

3,837
3,410
4,594
3,775
2,545
3,671

50.3
47.6
49.6
50.2
50.8
50.2
49.1
50.0
48.8

10.1
10.4
11.7
10.7
10.7
10.3
11.1
9.9
10.9

27.1
28.4
26.6
26.1
26.9
28.3
27.2
27.2
27.6

12.5
13.6
12.1
13.1
11.5
11.1
12.7
12.9
12.8

2,575
2,562
2,581
2,609
2,585
2,560
2,535
2,560
2,564

390
389
398
391
386
384
380
382
391

2,766
2,455
2,337
2,523
2,361
2,212
2,227
2,468
2,884

48.0
48.7
50.3
48.1

12.7
11.7
11.9
13.2

26.3
26.8
26.0
26.1

13.0
12.8
11.8
12.6

2,591
2,610
2,654
2,612

370
392
393
380

3,370
3,295
3,144

Initial
claims

Weekly average, th ousands

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

1
Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFB), and railroad (EE) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program.




Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration).

13

NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 206,000 in April.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

/4

—

100

22

^-^^

.^—r

90 ^

_-••"'
SERV ICES

^\^
\
.
ALL ^lONAGRICU LTURAL
ESTABLISHME NTS

_,-^~

•
.—1

L f^-~

^'

20
.^•-•^

80 —

—

18
RET AIL TRADE

V

^ •"

70

U- r--'
\

h*""""

16

—

14

yiii|||ii|i

.s-

~
V

--^

_

L
^ ^
-

L

-'"'

GOVERN/<\ENT

~~"

SERV ICE-PRODUC ING
INDUSTRIES

60 —

X

Illllllllll Illllllllll ll|lll|llll LLLLLLLLUIJjI
MA NUFACTURII'gc

20
50

^X-1

18
—

40

^^
^ r^
iiiihini lll|||lll||

llllllll||l Illllllllll

I I I I I 1 1 1 1 I it
"
T

6
CON STRUCTION
\

GOC DS-PRODUC NG

30

NDUSTRIES

yiiiiliii?j" lTf| 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

20

' 1982

4

l||llllllll Illllllllll llllllllll|j

1983

1985

1984

2

(|iili||iii|

f —a-

"~~~~=ip=»

' 1982

1986

=

Illllllllll

L

seasonally adjusted]

Se rvice-produ< ing industn es

Goods-] roducing in dustries

M amifacturin g

Total 2

Construction

4,463
4,346
4,188

89,566
90,196
94,461
97,699

26,461
25,658
25,497
23,813
23,334
24,730
25,057

1985: Apr
May....
June...
July....
Aug....
Sept....
Oct
Nov....
Dec

97,120
97,421
97,473
97,707
97,977
98,217
98,559
98,801
99,086

25,090
25,066
25,010
24,980
25,015
24,962
25,051
25,089
25,155

1986; Jan
Feb '...
Mar r ..
Apr"..

99,496
99,656
99,834
100,040

25,300
25,251
25,161
25,182

1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

89,823
90,406
91,156

Total

i/urable
goods

Nondurable
goods




Transportation
and
public
utilities

Wholesale
trade

5,136
5,146
5,165

5,204
5,275
5,358

7,890
7,860

5,082
4,954
5,171
5,300

11,608
11,586
11,560
11,509
11,519
11,449
11,493
11,512
11,534

7,859
7,840
7,838
7,842
7,843
7,830
7,845
7,869
7,899

72,030
72,355
72,463
72,727
72,962
73,255
73,508
73,712
73,931

11,541
11,527
11,480
11,470

7,906
7,912
7,909
7,892

74,196
74,405
74,673
74,858

18,434
19,412
19,426

8,280
8,098
8,061
7,741
7,702

4,641
4,658
4,638
4,660
4,688
4,721
4,753
4,754
4,770

19,467
19,426
19,398
19,351
19,362
19,279
19,338
19,381
19,433

4,906
4,883
4,870
4,954

19,447
19,439
19,389
19,362

3,905
3,948
4,345
4,662

Total

63,363
64,748
65,659
65,753
66,862
69,731
72,643

12,760
12,187
12,109
11,039
10,732
11,522
11,566

21,040
20,285
20,170
18,781

1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who
worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month.
Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces.
Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the
civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic
servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial dis-

14

'

1986

1985

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of wage and salary workers;

Period

'^

Illllllllll ll|llll|lll l|lll||lllh
1984

1983

"SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

Total
nonagricultural
employment

'—
f

'

tail
trade

Finance,
insurance,
and real
estate
4,975
5,160
5,298

5,278
5,268
5,550
5,769

14,989
15,035
15,189
15,179
15,613
16,584
17,425

5,278
5,301
5,295
5,302
5,282
5,317
5,327
5,342
5,350

5,733
5,748
5,768
5,773
5,791
5,805
5,830
5,833
5,848

5,357
5,344
5,348
5,345

5,872
5,886
5,897
5,920

Gover nment
Services
Total

Federal

5,341
5,468
5,682
5,924

17,112
17,890
18,619
19,036

15,947
16,241
16,031
15,837

2,773
2,866

19,694
20,761
21,930

15,869
15,984
16,295

2,772
2,739
2,774
2,807
2,875

17,280
17,392
17,425
17,453
17,514
17,539
17,610
17,640
17,702

5,858
5,888
5,906
5,932
5,959
5,987
6,011
6,048
6,068

21,723
21,813
21,856
21,926
22,073
22,155
22,244
22,365
22,450

16,158
16,213
16,213
16,341
16,343
16,452
16,486
16,484
16,513

2,859
2,873
2,872
2,878
2,886
2,904
2,892
2,904
2,914

17,825
17,904
17,986
18,019

6,098
6,131
6,159
6,206

22,540
22,592
22,744
22,827

16,504
16,548
16,539
16,541

2,918
2,915
2,917
2,921

putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample
of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
* Includes mining, not shown separately.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
\verage weekly
hours
Period

Manufa during

Total
private
nonagricultural s

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

34.8
35.0
35.3
35.1

1986: Jan
Feb r
Mar r
Apr".

Total

35.8
35.7
35.3
35.2

1985: Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

Average g!ross hourly
earn ings
Total
private
nonagricultural '

Overtime

35.0
35.1
35.1
35.0
35.1
35.1
35.1
35.0
35.1

40.2
40.4
40.4
40.3
40.6
40.7
40.7
40.7
41.0

3.4
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.6

35.2
35.0
35.0
35.0

41.0
40.6
40.7
40.6

3.6
3.4
3.4
3.5

Percent chang e from a year

Ind ex,

Manufacturing

$5.69

39.8
38.9
40.1
40.7
40.5

3.6
3.3
2.8
2.8
2.3
3.0
3.4
3.3

40.4
40.2
39.7

Adjustc d hourly earnin gs index — total private
nonagnc ultural 2

$6.17
6.70
7.27

Current
dollars
108.2

7.99
8.49
8.83
9.18
9.52

116.8
127.3
138.9
148.5
155.4
160.7
165.6

8.54
8.55
8.59
8.57
8.60
8.65
8.64
8.67
8.74

9.48
9.49
9.51
9.53
9.56
9.56
9.58
9.61
9.66

8.67
8.72
8.74
8.74

9.62
9.66
9.68
9.70

6.16
6.66
7.25
7.68
8.02
8.33
8.58

Current
dollars

1977
dollars 3

8.2

100.5
97.4
93.5
92.6
93.4
94.9
94.8

1977 dollars
0.5
-3.1
-4.0
-1.0
.9
1.6

94.3

7.9
9.0
9.1
6.9
4.6
3.4
3.0

164.8
164.9
165.7
165.4
165.7
166.7
166.4
167.1
168.4

94.4
94.3
94.5
94.2
94.2
94.6
94.1
94.1
94.4

2.9
3.1
3.2
2.7
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.1

-1.2
-.9
-.8
-1.0
.0
.4
.1
-.4
-.5

167.4
168.5
168.9
168.8

93.5
94.6
95.3
95.6

2.7
2.8
2.7
2.5

-1.0
-.2
.7
1.3

1

-.5

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Percent ct ange from
a year earlier,
total private n onagricultura! 5

Avera ge gross weekly ea rnings
Period

Total arivate
nonagnc ultural '
Current dollars

1978
1979
1980
1981

1982
1983
1984
1985
1985: Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan
Feb r
Mar r .
Apr"

Manufacturing

$203.70
219.91
235.10
255.20

$189.31
183.41
172.74
170.13

267.26
280.70
294.05
301.16




1977 dollars

Current dollars

367.78
399.26
426.82
442.97
456.92
462.20

$130.20
138.62
147.38
158.03
163.85
171.05
176.40
177.31

7.8
8.0
6.9
8.5
4.7
5.0
4.8
2.4

0.2
-3.1
5.8
-1.5
1.2
1.9
1.3
— 1.1

381.10
383.40
384.20
384.06
388.14
389.09
389.91
391.13
396.06

465.88
460.60
454.96
459.85
459.75
466.17
464.65
459.27
458.56

176.42
178.20
177.61
176.72
176.42
177.60
176.71
177.00
177.56

394.42
392.20
393.98
393.82

469.32
443.95
449.07
465.50

177.00
176.99
177.58
176.68

2.1
2.4
2.8
1.8
2.6
2.4
3.0
2.4
2.6
3.0
2.7
2.0
2.0

2.0
-1.5
-1.2
-1.9
-.4
-.3
.1
-1.0
1.0
.7

$318.69
342.99

168.09
171.26
173,48
171.60

$249.27
269.34
288.62
318.00
330.26
354.08
373.63
385.56

298.90
300.11
301.51
299.95
301.86
303.62
303.26
303.45
306.77

171.19
171,69
172.00
170.81
171.61
172.32
171.62
170.86
171.96

305.18
305.20
305.90
305.90

170.49
171.27
172.63
173.31

Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.
Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing.
Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index for urban i
and clerical workers (on a 1977=100 base).
3

Retail trade
Current dollars

1977 dollars 3

1

2

Construction

5

9

.0
.9

Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places.
Based on seasonally unadjusted data.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

15

PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR
Output pe r hour of
all pe rsons
Period
Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Hours of zall
persons

Outp ut '
Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Compens ition per
hou r 3

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Real com pensation
4

Unit lab ;>r costs

per h aur

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Implici t price
defla o r 5

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

197 7 = 100; t uarterly ( ata seascm ally adjus ted

1978
1979

100.8
99.6

100.8
99.2

105.8
107.8

105.9
107.9

104.9
108.3

105.1
108.7

108.5
119.1

108.6
118.9

100.8
99.4

100.9
99.2

107.7
119.6

107.7
119.8

107.3
117.0

107.0
116.5

1980
1981

99.2
100.7
100.3
103.2
105.2

98.8
99.8
99.2
102.6
104.1

106.6
108.9
105.5
110.1
119.0

106.7
108.5
104.9
110.3
118.9

107.5
108.2
105.2
106.8
113.1

108.0
108.7

131.5
143.7
154.9
161.9
168.2

131.3
143.6
154.8
162.1
168.0

96.7
95.7
97.3
98.5
98.2

96.6
95.7
97.2
98.6
98.0

132.6
142.7
154.5
157,0
159.9

132.9
144.0
156.0
158.0
161.4

127.6
139.8
148.1
152.8
158.7

127.8
140.3
149.2
154.1
159.6

1986: lr

105.3
100.3
101.0
102.3
103.5
103.5
103.6
104.9
105.5
105.3
105.0
105.3
105.5
105.9
104.9
105.5

103.9
99.1
99.7
101.3
102.8
103.3
103.0
104.0
104.5
104.2
103.8
104.1
104.2
104.3
103.2
104.1

122.1
105.1
105.0
106.6
109.3
111.3
113.4
117.1
119.2
119.6
120.1
121.2
121.9
122.6
122.8
124.0

98.6
174.2
115.9
117.5
166.2
98.1
175.0
122.0
97.2
105.5
97.0
156.3
104.8
104.5
156.2
156.6
104.5
156.7
97.8
97.9
158.2
103.9
104.2
158.3
160.1
99.1
99.0
160.4
104.2
104.8
106.2
156.6
98.8
98.7
105.6
106.3
109.3
156.0
161.6
161.5
162.1
108.2
98.2
107.5
156.6
98.1
162.3
111.8
98.2
164.1
109.5
110.5
158.4
98.3
164.0
113.8
166.1
117.1
158.4
98.1
98.3
165.9
111.6
112.6
114.0
158.7
98.1
98.2
167.4
113.0
119.2
167.5
98.0
98.2
169.1
113.6
114.7
119.5
160.6
168.8
97.9
170.1
114.4
115.6
120.0
98.1
170.4
162.3
172.1
116.3
98.3
98.5
172.4
115.1
121.1
163.8
98.2
98.5
173.7
115.6
116.9
121.8
165.2
174.3
98.3
98.9
175.0
176.1
115.8
117.5
122.6
166.3
98.0
98.7
176.4
117.1
118.9
122.7
169.3
177.6
98.2
177.3 L__9jTL
178.2
119.2
124.1 ^iil^L
168.9
Pe "cent chan ge; quarte rly data at seasonal!y adjusted annual ra tes

167.7
157.6
158.6
158.3
157.2
157.1
159.1
159.6
160.1
162.0
163.9
165.3
166.8
167.8
170.9
170.3

163.1
149.3
150.2
151.1
152.0
153.1
154.9
156.6
158.0
159.4
160.8
161.6
162.7
163.5
164.6
165.4

164.8
150.3
151.4
152.3
153.6
154.2
156.1
157.1
158.8
160.5
161.9
163.0
164.5
165.5
166.3
167.4

1978
1979

0.8
-1.2

0.8
-1.6

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

-.3
1.5
^
2.9
2.0

1.0
-.6
3.4
1.5

1985
1982: IH
IT
1983: I
II
Ill
IV
1984: I

.1
.3
3.0
5.1
4.9
.0
.4
5.1
2.5
-.8

-.3
.0
2.4
6.5
6.1
2.0
-1.1
3.6
2.2
-1.3

1982
1983
1984
1985
1982: m
IV
1983: I

n
in

IV
1984: I
II

m

IV
1985: I

n
in
IV

n
in

IV
1985: I

n
m

IV
1986: I r

-1.3
1.0
.8

1.6
-3.9
2.5

^.

-1.3
1.0
.2
.4
-4.1
3.6

105.8
107.5
114.2

5.8
1.9

5.9
1.8

4.9
3.2

5.1
3.5

8.5
9.7

8.6
9.5

0.8
— 1.4

0.9
-1.6

7.7
11.1

7.7
11.2

7.3
9.1

7.0
8.9

-1.1
2.1
3.1
4.4
8.1

-1.1
1.7
-3.3
5.1
7.9

-.8
.7

— .7

10.5
9.2
7.8
4.5
3.9

10.5
9.4
7.7
4.7
3.7

-2.7
-1.0
1.6
1.3
.3

-2.7

10.8
7.7
8.2
1.6
1.9

11.0
8.3
8.4
1.2
2.2

9.0
9.6
5.9
3.2
3.9

9.7
9.7
6.3
3,3
3.6

2.6
-3.1
— .4
6.3
10.5
7.4
7.9
13.6
7.5
1.3
1.7
3.6
2.3
2.5
.4
4.2

2.6
-3.4
-1.2
7.6
12.2
9.6
7.3
12.1
7.2
1.2
1.8
3.6
2.3
2.6
.6
4.5

4.0
7.5
4.5
4.7
3.4
1.5
5.1
4.9
3.3
4.1
3.1
4.8
4.4
4.2
3.4
1.4

3.7
7.5
5.0
5.6
3.1
1.8
4.0
4.9
3.6
3.4
3.2
4.7
3.8
2.8
3.2
2.2

.4
.1
2.9
4.4
-.9
-2.6
.8
2
-.3
.2
-.6
1.5
.4
1.6
-.9
.0

.1
.2
3.4
5.3
-1.1
-2.3
-.2
_^2
.0
— .4
-.4
1.4
-.2
.3
-1.0

3.9
7.2
1.5
-.3
-1.4
1.5
4.7
-.2
.8
4.9
4.5
3.7
3.5
2.5
7.5
-1.0

3.9
7.6
2.6
-.9
2.8
_ 2
5.2
1.2
1.3
4.8
4.6
3.6
3.6
2.4
7.6
— 1.4

2.8
5.6
2.4
2.3
2.6
2.8
4.9
4.4
3.7
3.6
3.5
2.1
2.8
2.0
2.7
1.9

3.3
5.7
3.0
2.4
3.3
1.7
5.1
2.4
4.4
4.4
3.6
2.7
3.7
2.6
1.8
2.6

-2.7

1.5
6.0
2.5
-3.4
-3.3

1.1
5.3
7.4
7.5
8.1
4.9
2.1
3.1
2.5
1.5
.9
4.5
1.7

.7
-2.7

1.6
6.3
2.9
-3.4
-3.5

1.1
5.8
7.5
8.6
8.2
4.9
2.5
3.1
2.6
2.1
2.1
4.8
.9

1
Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector m 1982 dollars.
2
Hours of aJl persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family
workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data.
3
Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private
benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed.

16




4

.9
1.5
1.5
-.6

•7

Hourly compensation divided bv the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.
NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector.
Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may
differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
5

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY

UTILIZATION

Industrial production rose 0.2 percent in April, following a decline of 0.7 percent in March. The index for April was
0.8 percent above its year-earlier level.
INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE)

INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE)

140

MV

TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

200 __ FINAL P RODUCTS

120
DEF ENSE AND-

180
160 •

100
Illllllllll

I""1'

Illlltlllll

140
-~^-

140 — MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION
DURABLE

120

^X"*^1^
•"BUSINESS
^ " 1
" "
EQUIPMEN1

SPACE
EC3UIPMENT -

r

*&*

+<^

.X

j

^s~-

'

'

*"•»*

CONSUMER
GOODS

./*

120

^•w

100

H-iiH,,,, 1 1 IM l l T M 1 ,,,„,,„„

100

miilmn

MUM

1 1 1 in

PERCENT*
90 -MANUFACTURING CAPACITY JTILIZATIO N RATE _
SXB

80

70
100

~~\

60
1982

1 982

1986

I

iitnlfii|i
1 983

1984

IIMlilflil

1985

I f t If } til f B

1986

'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SOURCE; BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

To tal

Industry proc uction indexes , 1977 = 100

indus trial
produ ction
Period
Index,
1977 = 100

1977 proportion

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985: Apr
May
June
July

Aug
Sept

Oct
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan r
Feb T
Mar r
Apr"
1

Output as pert'ent of capacity.




100,0
106.5
110.7
108.6
111.0
103.1
109.2
121.8
124.5
124.1
124.1
124.3
124.1
125.2
125.1
124.4
125.4
126.4
126.7
125.7
124.9
125.1

Capacity utilization
rate, pt rcent J

Manufacturing

Percent
change
from year
earlier

6.5
3.9
-1.9
2.2
-7.1

5.9

11.5
2.2
2.8
2.3
1.6
.7
1.3
1.5
1.4
1.6
2.5
2.5
1.6
.7
.8

Mining
Durable

Total

84.21
107.1
111.5
108.2
110.5
102.2
110.2
123.9
127.1
126.6
126.6
126.7
126.9
128.2
127.7
127.2
128.4
129.1
129.8
129.0
128.1
128.7

49.10
108.2
113.9
109.1
111.1
99.9
107.7
124.8
128.2
128.2
127.9
127.6
127.9
129.4
128.3
127.7
129.2
129.9
130.4
129.3
127.8
128.8

Utilities

Nondurable

35.11
105.5
108.2
107.0
109.7
105.5
113.7
122.5
125.6
124.3
124.7
125.5
125.6
126.6
126.9
126.4
127.3
128.0
129.1
128.7
128.4
128.6

9.83
103.6
106.4
112.4
117.5
109.3
102.9
110.9
109.0
109.6
109.8
110.6
108.7
108.3
108.4
108.4
106.9
107.4
107.4
105.3
103.2
102.0

5.96
103.1
105.9
107.3
107.1
104.8
105.2
110.9
113.4
113.6
113.7
113.4
110.7
110.3
113.2
112.4
112.2
116.5
114.6
112.4
114.2
114.0

Manufacturing

Industrial
materials

84.2
84.6

86.3

79.3
78.3
70.3
74.0
80.8
80.3
80.5
80.3
80.1
80.1
80.7
80.1
79.6
80.2
80.4
80.7
80.0
79.2
79.4

87.1
81.1
81.1
71.7
75.3
82.3
80.2
80.9
80.1
80.1
79.5
79.9
79.5
79.3
79.2
80.1
80.2
79.7
79.1
79.0

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

17

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND
SELECTED MANUFACTURES
[1977=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Produ ts

Mate rials

?inal produc ts

Internlediate pro lucts

C onsumer goods

Equipment

Period
Total

Durable
goods

Total

Nondurable goods

Total »

1977 proportion
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

44.77
106.9
111.0
112.2
115.2
109.5
114.7
127.8
132.0

25.52
104.3
103.9
102.7
104.1
101.4
109.3
118.2
120.7

6.89
103.7
99.9
88.4
89.7
82.9
98.5
112.6
112.9

18.63
104.5
105.4
108.1
109.3
108.3
113.3
120.2
123.6

19.25
110.3
120.4

1985: Apr
Mav
June
Julv
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

131.3
131.7
131.6
131.8
133.3
133.3
131.9
133.7
134.4

119.5
120.0
120.4
120.1
121.5
121.8
120.8
122.7
124.2

111.5
111.8
112.0
111.3
114.0
112.9
111.4
115.5
116.8

122.5
123.1
123.5
123.4
124.2
125.1
124.3
125.4
127.0

146.9
147.1
146.6
147.3
149.0
148,6
146.6
148.3

1986: Jan '
Feb r .
Mar r
Apr "

134.4
132.9
131.6
132.1

123.9
123.2
122.2
123.0

116.6
116.3
113.2
115.5

126.5
125.7
125.5
125.8

148.4
145.8
144.2
144.2

1

124.7
129.9

120.2
121.7
140.5

147.0

147,9

Business

Defense
and
space
equipment

14.34
112.2
124.7
125.1
127.6
113.6
115.4
134.9
141.2

3.67
101.2
105.6
115.4
119.8
133.0
143.1
157.9
173.6

12.94
106.9
110.8
106.9
107.3
101.7
111.2

142.0
141.9
140.7
141.3
143.0
142.2
139.6
141.7
141.4
142.9
141.5

140.2
141.1

Total

Construction
supplies

Busi-

Total

Energy

supphcs

124.9
130.6

5.95
106.9
108.7
100.6
98.6
88.3
100.6
114.0
118.9

6.99
106.9
112.7
112.3
114.7
113.1
120.3
134.2
140.5

42.28
105.9
110.3
105.3
107.7
96.7
102.8
114.6
114.7

11.69
101.1
104.1
105.5
104.7
101.2
98.4
104.0
104.4

170.1
171.2
173.4
173.9
175.5
177.5
178.7
180.7
180.7

129.3
130.3
131.4
130.7
132.0
132.3
131.5
132.7
132.9

117.4
118.1
119.2
119.4
121.5
121.3
120.0
120.9
120.7

139.4
140.7
141.7

115.0
114.2
114.3
113.8
114.5

179.3
176.7
178.5
179.5

134.4
134.0
134.3
134.2

124.0
123.5
123.7
123.9

141.2

114.2
114.2

142.7
143.3

114.3
115.9

105.3
105.3
105.1
103.5
102.7
103.4
104.2
102.5
105.8

143.2

116.2
115.5
114.8
114.9

104.1
103.9
104.5
104.2

140.3

140.9
141.7

143.0
143.3

Includes rigs and prefabs, not shown separately.

[1977=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Durable m inufactures

Nonelectrical
machinery

Iron and
steel

Fabricated
metal
products

5.33
107.0
108.5
90.4
95.0
65.8
73.0
82.4
80.6

3.49
107.5
108.0
86.3
92.5
57.5
66.1
73.5
70.6

6.46
105.7
109.4
101.8
101.6
86.6
89.1
102.8
107.9

9.54
111.7
122.6
123.3
129.8
115.6
118.3
142.0
146.4

7.15
112.9
125.7
130.3
134.1
128.4
143.8

1985: Apr
Mav
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

81.4
76.4
78.3
79.0
82.0
80.3
83.1
83.6
81.7

71.9
65.4
67.6
68.7
71.6
69.7

109.1
108.3
107.4
107.3
107.8
107.5
108.4
107.9
108.8

148.9
149.1
145.6
147.5
149.2
146.5
143.0
145.6
146.0

1986: Jan r
Feb r
Mar 1 "
Apr"

84.9
81.9
78.3
78.8

75.5
71.2
66.7

109.3
109.4
109.0
109.5

146.2
145.3

Period
Total

1977 proportion
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

18




74.4

75.3
72.0

144.1
144.3

No ndurable inanufactu es
Transp station
equipment

Primary metals
Electrical
machinery

Total

Motor
vehicles
and
parts

Lumber
and
products

Apparel
products

Printing and
publishing

Chemicals
and
products

Foods

169.3

9.13
106.3
108.3
96.9
95.1
87.6
99.2
113.6
123.2

5.25
104.6
95.9
71.1
71.6
66.8
85.8
105.6
112.8

2.30
102.4
102.0
92.9
90.1
82.8
100.2
109.1
112.9

2.79
103.1
98.3
97.3
96.1
87.3
95.3
102.8
101.8

4.54
107.8
112.7
115.1
118.6
120.2
129.8
147.9
155.2

8.05
106.8
111.4
106.4
112.6
103.8
114.0
121.7
127.1

7.96
104.3
106.7
111.4
113.7
114.9
120.4
127.1
131.0

168.9
169.3
169.5
165.7
166.1
165.1
165.1
168.9
171.9

120.7
120.9
121.8
123.7
126.8
126.2
124.5
126.5
126.8

110.9
110.5
110.5
112.8
116.8
115.3
111.7
114.5
115.4

110.9
112.2
113.5
113.0
114.8
115.9
116.5
115.6
116.5

100.2
100.3
99.2
100.6
100.4
101.8
102.6
103.9
105.0

154.2
155.4
156.7
154.3
156.3
156.2
157.0
159.0
158.4

125.8
126.7
126.4
126.4
128.2
129.0
127.9
128.0
128.5

130.8
131.4
131.8
132.2
132.6
132.5
130.7
131.4
132.6

167.9
165.5
165.4
165.5

128.9
128.1
123.9
127.1

117.8
117.8
110.1
115.1

119.9
118.2

105.8
103.6
103.7

158.9
157.1
156.6
158.6

130.5
130,8
131.2

133.2
133.8
133.3

172.4

NEW CONSTRUCTION
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Constructio n contracts 2

Private
Period

Total new
construction
expenditures

Resi iential
Total

Commercial
and industrial

New housing

Total i

Other

Federal,
State, and
local

Total value
index
(1977=100)

Commercial
and industrial
floor space
(millions of
square feet)

I 'illions of dollars

1978
1979
1980
1981

215.9
241.9
238.0
246.7
236.9
268.7
313.0
342.4

1982
1983
1984
1985

170.0
193.1
183.0
193.3
186.1
218.0
257.8
280.0

103.8
110.5
94.5
94.1
80.6
121.3
145.1
148.2

29.6
39.9
43.8
51.3
54.6
48.7
61.9
75.S

36.7
42.7
44.7
47.9
50.9
48.1
50.9
56.0

45.9
48.8
55.0
53.3
50.8
50.7
55.2
62.3

114.0
121.0
108.0
112.0
111.0
138.0
150.0

74.0
78.5
76.5
73.5
73.3
75.0
76.8
76.4
77.4
81.9
80.1
79.5
74.7
73.6

86.2
90.1
70.4
70.2
57.7
95.7
114.6
113.4

54.4
56.9
57.7
58.3
57.5
57.5
56.8
54.9
54.2
54.4
54.9
55.5
54.6
54.1

59.1
59.9
63.5
64.9
64.7
63.9
63.6
62.4
62.6
64.8
68.4
68.6
69.0
69.4

167
163
161
154
164
164
167
168
162
162
146
162
149
176

161.0

Annual rates

Annual rates

1985: Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan r
Feb r
Mar"
Aprp

333.7
341.9
339.9
343.8
344.2
343.2
346.1
344.5
343.8
351.7

274.6
282.0
276.4
278.9
279.5
279.4
282.5
282.1
281.3
286.9

146.2
146.5
142.3
147.2
148.7
146.9
148.9
150.9
149.7
150.7

110.8
112.6
112.0
112.2
112.8
113.4
113.8
115.6
115.2
116.6

355.1
358.8
353.9
356.7

286.7
290.2
284.8
287.3

151.7
155.2
155.5
159.6

118.7
121.9
122.9
127.0

3

Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately.
2
F. W. Dodge series.

977
1,059
904
919
690
756
955
1,064

1,049
1,104
1,008
836

1,103
1,097
1,118
1,104
1,111
951
848
941
840

1,011

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company, F. W. Dodge Division.

NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES
[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]
New priv ate homes

New private housing units
Period

Units started, by type of structure
Total

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982

1983
1984
1985

2,020.3
1,745.1
1,292.2
1,084.2
1,062.2
1,703.0
1,749.5
1,741.8

1 unit
1,433.3
1,194.1
852.2
705.4
662.6
1,067.6
1,084.2
1,072.4

2-4 units
125.0
122.0
109.5
91.1
80.0
113.5
121.4
93.4

5 or more units
462.0
429.0
330.5
287.7
319.6
522.0
544.0
576.1

Units
authorized
1,800.5
1,551.8
1,190.6
985.5
1,000.5
1,605.2
1,681.8
r
l,733.3

Units
completed

Homes sold

Homes for
sale at end of
period 1

1,867.5
1,870.8
1,501.6
1,265.7
1,005.5
1,390.3
1,652.2
1,703.3

817
709
545
436
412
623
639
688

1,691
1,659
1,635
1,758
1,722
1,720
1,778
1,541
1,721
1,762

698
648
684
710
745
708
681
637
722
729

356
355
355
354
351
348
350
353
353
349

1,778
1,721
1,822

735
740
893
862

352
354
340
336

3

414

398
336
272

251
300
356
349

Vacancy rate
for rental
housing units
(percent) 2
5.0
5.4
5.4
5.0
5.3
5.7
5.9
6.5

Seasonal !y adjusted annu al rates

1985: Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan r
Feb T
Mar r.
Apr p
1

1,849
1,851
1,684
1,693
1,673
1,737
1,653
1,784
1,654
1,882
2,034
2,001
1,930
2,009

1,147
1,129
1,041
1,036
1,068
1,071
1,006
1,118
1,006
1,098
1,335
1,202
1,207
1,256

103
106
105
95
86
97
85
80
76
83
107
115
82
90

599
616
538
562
519
569
562
586
572
701
592
684
641
663

Seasonally adjusted.
Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable
with earlier data.
3
New series beginning March 1979.
2




r

1,754
1,694
l,727
r
l,717
r
1,709
r
1,782
r
1,846
T
1,703
r
1,668
r
1,839
1,861
1,808
1,834
1,885
r
r

6.3
6.2
6.8
6.7

6.9

NOTE.—-Beginning 1984, units authorized are for 17,000 permit-issuing places and for 1978-83
data are for 16,000 places.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

19

BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade
Manufacturing and trade sales fell 1.7 percent in March and inventories rose $2.8 billion. According to advance
data, retail sales rose 0.5 percent in April following a decline of 0.9 percent in March.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

63U

200
190
180
170
160
150

600
550

_

-

__^_^

500

-

450

^^
- I
"\

MANUF/kCTURING A ND
TRADE INVENTORY S

140

RETAIL INVENTORIES

130
400
350

,x
p.-

120

MANUFAC TURING
AND TRAD E SALES

' \

110

—

100
300

250

-RETAIL SALES -

90
80

-

-

70
RATIO*
1.80

1.60

-

150

-

_ INVENTC3RY-SALES RATIO

t^n

RETAIL

1 1 1 1 1 ( 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 II 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 | 11 1 1 1 II 1 M 1 ' H M 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1

1985

1984

1983

1982

1.00

MANUFACTURI •JG
AND TRADE

miil'MM

M i n i u m i i | | i | i i m M i n i u m LI 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1982

1986

1983

Sales

Inventories 3

1986

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Whol esale

Inventorv-s ales ratio 4

Re tail

Sales 2

Period
2

1985

1984

'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Manufact iring and
trad e J

f.

*/

1 20
100

-

Sales

2

Inventoe

Total

Durable
goods
stores

Inventories 3
Nondurable goods
stores

Total

Durable
goods
stores

Nondurable goods
stores

Manufacturing

Retail

Millions of dollars, seasonally idjusted
1978
1979
1980
1981

260,805
298,334
328,058
356,919
344,656
368,724
410,737
424,091

399,608
451,460
494,105
528,105
509,555
520,328
575,098
583,148

66,669
79,472
93,704
102,013
96,290
100,424
113,404
114,494

86,405
99,262
113,478
118,259
118,149
120,265
131,544
135,940

420,346
424,413
425,582
418,543
421,524
428,015
427,691
425,689
431,326
432,797

578,370
579,256
578,037
580,137
580,318
578,635
578,742
581,516
582,381
583,148

114,044
116,588
116,712
111,073
113,301
115,146
114,344
113,675
115,762
116,852

133,135
133,203
133,667
134,931
134,949
134,869
134,410
134,810
134,831
135,940

431,713
426,854
419,494

584,968
585,176
587,937

115,648
113,380
112,278

136,624
136,561
137,019

1982
1983
1984
1985
1985:

Mar r
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov

r

Dec
1986:

1
2
3

Jan
Feb r
Mar"
Apr"

r

See page 21 for manufacturing,
Monthly average for year and total for month.
Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted.

20




23,368
25,529
24,914
27,089
28,059
33,041
38,817
42,851

67,231
74,926
79,963
86,777
89,339
97,858
107,755
114,495
111,999
!14,316
114,232
113,599
114,430
116,276
119,118
114,785
115,433
116,861

41,498
42,822
42,787
42,444
42,768
44,209
46,748
42,355
42,631
43,882

r

r

117,349
117,200
r
l!6,165
116,788

44,187
43,949
r
42, 976
44,197

43,863
49,397
55,049
59,688
61,279
64,817
68,939
71,645

102,694
111,098
116,346
127,201
126,497
139,381
157,845
165,324

50,136
54,108
55,117
60,327
58,952
66,928
77,142
82,875

52,558
56,990
61,229
66,874
67,545
72,453
80,703
82,449

1.44
1.43
1.45
1.44
1.51
1.38
1.34
1.37

1.43
1.44
1.42
1.41
1.41
1.34
1.39
1.40

70,501
7 1,494
71,445
71,155
71,662
72,067
72,370
72,430
72,802
72,979

159,064
160,004
159,470
159,528
160,333
159,078
160,302
164,262
165,557
165,324

78,455
79,071
78,679
79,143
79,205
78,042
78,425
81,668
83,056
82,875

80,609
80,933
80,791
80,385
81,128
81,036
81,877
82,594
82,501
82,449

1.38

1.36
1.36
1.39
1.38
1.35
1.35
1.37
1.35
1.35

1.42
1.40
1.40
1.40
1.40
1.37
1.35
1.43
1.43
1.41

73,162
73,251
73,189
72,591

167,987
169,379
171,347

84,755
85,863
88,007

83,232
83,516
83,340

1.35
1.37
1.40

1.43
1.45
1.48

r

r

4
For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly
data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
In April, manufacturers' shipments rose, inventories and new orders were little changed, and unfilled orders fell.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* {RATIO SCALE)
240

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

360
320

~~ INVENT DRIES

280

'

—
• :^*—

" ' 1

——

240

—

TOTAL
•

~

"'7
/
DU RABLE GOO OS
"7

NONDU (ABLE GOO 3S
60
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

200 -

NEWO RDERS

*—

_-^*^1
160

-=^>

DURA

120

MIMlMIM

—

TOTAL

2.2

3LE GOODS

,- - ~|[•^.x

rf—

-^

/'

-

1.8

^ S.
1
1.6 ^

vIONDURABL

f f 1 11 1t i 111

imillmi

1982

1983

1.2

1985

1984

Illllllllll

INVENTCDRY-SHIPMENTS RATKD

X

p - ^
- "

1.4

40

i.HlLmii

2.0

^•~: :,-.-\
\
t
E GOODS

•*~~s

.m.1,.,1. ,,,,,!,,,,,

RATIO*

1 1 1 1 1 1 j 1 1 1 1 1 f 1 ,1 1 1 1 1 , 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 , , , 1 1 1 1 , 1 1 1 1 1 1 , , 1 1 1 1 , i

1986

1982

1984

1983

"SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1985

1986

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Manufa cturers' shiprnents 1

M anufacturers new orders i
,

Manufai turers' inven tones 2

D r bl °

Period

Durable
goods

Total

Nondurable goods

Durable
goods

Total

Nondurable goods

Total
Total

Capital
goods
industries,
nondefense

Nondurable goods

Manufacturers'
unfilled
orders 3

Manufacturers'
inventory —
shipments
ratio 4

Millions of do .lars, seasoi\ally adjust id
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

126,905
143,936
154,391
168,129
159,027
170,441
189,578
195,102

67,848
76,060
77,550
83,872
76,693
84,951
98,502
103,649

59,057
67,876
76,841
84,257
82,334
85,491
91,076
91,452

210,509
241,100
264,281
282,645
264,909
260,682
285,709
281,884

137,891
160,533
174,620
186,347
175,103
171,629
191,109
189,164

72,618
80,567
89,661
96,298
89,806
89,053
94,600
92,720

131,546
147,403
156,161
167,752
157,255
173,259
191,634
195,803

72,339
79,451
79,360
83,553
74,996
87,631
100,611
104,305

19,458
23,231
23,259
24,050
20,681
22,764
27,017
27,215

59,207
67,953
76,801
84,199
82,260
85,627
91,024
91,499

259,770
302,145
323,393
319,094
296,918
330,924
355,640
363,809

1.57
1.57

1985: Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

193,509
194,638
193,871
193,793
196,593
194,229
197,229
200,131
199,084

102,068
102,718
102,657
102,478
105,311
103,656
106,479
107,007
105,777

91,441
91,920
91,214
91,315
91,282
90,573
90,750
93,124
93,307

286,049
284,900
285,678
285,036
284,688
284,030
282,444
281,993
281,884

192,475
191,546
192,239
192,163
192,037
191,930
190,508
190,284
189,164

93,574
93,354
93,439
92,873
92,651
92,100
91,936
91,709
92,720

191,081
195,019
198,261
195,793
198,782
197,332
195,381
196,865
201,213

99,839
102,971
106,780
104,370
107,661
106,641
104,495
103,796
107,531

25,461
25,594
27,984
26,685
27,554
29,240
27,092
25,788
30,566

91,242
92,048
91,481
91,423
91,121
90,691
90,886
93,069
93,682

354,731
355,112
359,502
361,502
363,691
366,794
364,946
361,680
363,809

1.48
1.46
1.47
1.47
1.45
1.46
1.43
1.41
1.42

1986: Jan r
Feb r
Mar"
Apr"

198,716
196,274
191,051
194,916

105,631
105,545
102,693
106,073

93,085
90,729
88,358
88,843

280,357
279,236
279,571
279,195

188,518
187,644
188,333
187,788

91,839
91,592
91,238
91,407

201,133
198,559
192,996
193,177

24,288
28,637
26,540
26,075

92,939
91,014
88,314
88,670

366,226
368,511
370,456
368,717

1.41
1.42
1.46
1.43

1
2

3

r

Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales.
Book value, end of period.

End of period.




r

108,194
107,545
104,682
104,507

r

1.66
1.64
1.73
1.52
1.45
1.46

4
For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for
monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month.

Source; Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

21

PRICES
PRODUCER PRICES
In April, the producer price index for all finished goods fell 0.6 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished
consumer foods rose 0.1 percent, while prices of other finished consumer goods fell 1.4 percent. Prices of capital
equipment rose 0.3 percent.
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)

INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)

340

340

320

300

240

220

200

180

180
1985

1986

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Intern ediate ma terials

Fin shed goods
Period

Total
finished

goods

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 '

195.9
217.7
247.0
269.8
280.7
285.2

Consumer
foods

Finished go( ds excluding consumer foo Is
Consumer gc ods
Total
Total

Durable

Nondurable

Capital
equipment

Total
finished
consumer
goods

Total

234.4
274.3
304.6
329.0
319.5
323.6
330.8
306.1

216.2
247.9
259.2
257.4
247.8
252.2
259.5
235.0

272.3
330.0
401.0
482.3
473.9
477.4
484.5
459.2

271.3
281.0
284.6
290.3
291.8

253.1
232.8

299.6
300.0
300.4
300.7
301.3
299.7
302.7
303.4
303.8

291.9
292.6
291.6
292.5
291.2
289.6
292.1
294.5
296.7

319.3
320.0
318.5
317.8
317.4
317.2
317.5
318.6
319.9

235.4
231.5
230.7
229.7
226.5
224.9
229.4
232.3
233.9

325.4
326.5
325.0
324.3
324.1
323.9
324.0
325.0
326.2

307.3
305.6
303.8
303.0
296.1
293.1
302.2
308.0
307.0

235.1
231.6
230.6
229.5
221.6
217.7
231.0
240.8
239.7

462.9
464.9
461.2
461.1
456.1
454.9
455.4
453.1
452.4

303.3
303.5
304.3
305.3

294.3
288.3
284.1
281.5

318.3
313.8
310.0
307.0

232.6
229.2
228.8
226.9

324.6
320.0
316.0
312.9

303.2
288.1
279.9
269.7

233.5
225.1
222.9
216.1

453.4
424.1
403.3
385.8

200.0
231.3
283.9
319.6
333.6
335.3
337.3
339.3

199.2
216.5
239.8
264.3
279.4
287.2
294.0
300.5

194.9
217.9
248.9

291.1
293.7

166.9
183.2
206.2
218.6
226.7
233.1
236.8
241.5

1985: Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec r

293.5
294.2
293.6
294.3
293.4
291.8
294.4
296.4
298.3

270.8
268.6
268.4
270.9
269.0
266.4
270.8
273.7
276.5

298.9
300.6
299.7
299.8
299.3
298.0
300.1
301.7
303.3

297.5
299.7
298.4
298.4
297.5
296.3
298.0
300.0
301.9

240.9
241.4
242.1
242.1
242.3
239.8
243.0
243.8
243.6

340.1
343.8
340.7
340.7
339.0
338.9
339.3
342.3
346.0

1986: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr

296.3
291.7
288.6
286.8

274.8
270.5
271.2
271.6

301.2
296.5
292.1
289.5

299.2
292.4
285.8
281.7

242.4
242.6
243.9
245.6

342.0
330.0
317.5
308.9




Other

216.5
244.4
282.3
310.1
315.7
317.1
325.0
325.0

186.7
211.5
250.8
276.5
287.8
291.4
294.1
297.3

22

Other

Total

Foodstuffs
and
feedstuffs

203.1
226.1
252.6
250.3
239.4
247.9

190.7
213.3
247.8
273.3
285.8
290.8
294.8
299.0

Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds.

Foods
and
feeds l

215.6
242.2
280.3
306.0
310.4
312.3
320.0
318.7

207.2
226.2
239.5
253.6
259.3
261.8
273.3
271.2

1

Cnide maten als

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
In April, the consumer price index for all urban consumers fell 0.3 percent, seasonally adjusted (0.2 percent not
seasonally adjusted). The index was 1.6 percent above its year-earlier level.
INDE)(, 1967=100 (FJATIO SCALE)

INDEX, 1967 == 100 (RATIO S<:ALE)

340

340

UNADJUSTED

320

320

^
^
^—\
^^

300

300

1-^

x—

•=4

280

280

ALL ITEMS

-7

260

260

-/—

240

240

220

220

200

X

f—

200

X

'IMlllll"

180

MHllllMI

1979

1980

1978

1

' 1 M 1 1 ' ' Mimilmn
1982
1981

\ |\l|1 M 11 1

,,,,,,,,,, , \ 11 ' * ' ' ' M 1

1983

1985

1984

EE NOTE ON TABLE B LOW
OURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

|MMI 180
1986

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1967 = 100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]

Tr ansportati on

Hou sing
SheHer

All
items l

Total '

Renters'
costs (Dec.
1982 = 100)

NSA
Rel. imp.z
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985: Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr

100.0
195.4
217.4
246.8
272.4
289.1
298.4
311.1
322.2
320.1
321.3
322.3
322.8
323.5
324.5
325.5
326.6
327.4
328.4
327.5
326.0
325.3

Homeowners'
costs (Dec.
1982=100)

repairs

Fuel
and
other
utilities

upkeep

Total l

5.0
159.6
166.6
178.4
186.9
191.8
196.5
200.2
206.0
205.4
205.3
205.9
205.6
205.9
206.8
207.7
208.4
208.3
207.7
206.6
206.3
206.9

21.4
185.5
212.0
249.7
280.0
291.5
298.4
311.7
319.9
320.9
320.2
320.2
320.3
319.8
319.3
320.5
322.6
323.9
325.5
320.9
311.8
304.0

New
cars

Motor
fuel

3.4
153.8
166.0
179.3
190.2
197.6
202.6
208.5
215.2
214.1
214.5
215.0
215.2
215.7
216.2
217.0
217.7
218.4
218.6
219.5
219.9
221.2

5.5
196.3
265.6
369.1
410.9
389.4
376.4
370.7
373.8
374.3
377.7
378.8
379.1
377.4
375.2
374.3
377.4
379.4
380.1
357.2
314.8
279.5

Medical
care

Ener-

6.5
219.4
239.7
265.9
294.5
328.7
357.3
379.5
403.1
397.5
399.8
402.6
404.3
406.6
409.0
410.9
413.0
415.7
417.5
420.4
424.5
427.2

11.3
220.4
275.9
361.1
410.0
416.1
419.3
423.6
426.5
428.0
429.7
430.3
429.4
427.6
426.8
425.8
428.4
430.3
430.8
414.3
387.5
365.2

gy 2

All items
less
food,
energy,
and
shelter

NSA

18.5
211.4
234.5
254.6
274.6
285.7
291.7
302.9
309.8
308.7
308.4
309.1
309.2
309.6
310.7
311.1
313.2
315.2
315.9
313.8
314.1
315.0

37.9
202.8
227.6
263.3
293.5
314.7
323.1
336.5
349.9
346.5
348.4
349.4
350.3
351.7
352.2
353.3
355.2
356.2
357.1
356.8
357.5
358.5

22.3
210.4
239.7
281.7
314.7
337.0
344.8
361.7
382.0
376.4
379.7
381.1
383.1
385.3
386.1
387.9
390.5
391.9
393.3
394.8
397.3
400.7

7.3

103.0
108.6
115.4
113.7
114.7
115.3
115.8
116.3
116.7
117.5
118.2
118.5
118.8
119.2
119.8
121.1

14.4

102.5
107.3
113.1
111.5
112.6
112.9
113.6
114.3
114.5
114.9
115.7
116.2
116.6
117.0
118.0
118.9

1
Includes items not shown separately.
2
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oi!, coolant,
etc. also included through 1982.
3
Relative importance, December 1985.




Maintenance

Appar-

0.5
233.0
256.4
285.7
314.4
334.1
346.3
359.2
368.9
368.0
366.2
367.6
367.8
370.6
368.7
368.5
372.7
373.7
379.1
379.6
367.5
367.6

8.1
216.0
239.3
278.6
319.2
350.8
370.3
387.3
393.6
392.8
392.8
394.7
394.2
393.6
394.4
393.7
395.4
396.5
397.2
392.4
388.4
385.7

48.0
179.1
191.5
208.3
228.1
245.6
258.4
271.2
281.6
280.3
280.2
280.9
281.4
282.1
282.6
284.1
285.4
286.2
287.5
288.0
288.6
289.1

NOTE.—Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs
and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

23

CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]
Cha nge from pr seeding perk d

Period

Change from 3 montl s earlier, aim jal rate

Change from 6 mont] s earlier, ann jal rate

Consum r goods

Consum r goods

Consum r goods

Total
finished
goods

Capital
equipment

Excluding foods

Foods

Total
finished
goods

Capital
equipment

Excluding
food?

Foods

Total
finished
goods

Capita!
equipment

Excluding
foods

Foods

Change
from
year
earlier,
total
finished

goods
NSA

Cha age, Dec. o Dec., N 3A
9.2

1978

1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

8.5

11.7

7.9
8.8

7.4
7.5

7.1
.9.7

.6
1.7
1.8

17.5
14.2

1.4
2.1
2.3
3.0

12.8
11.8

8.5
4.2
-.8
.8

9.2

2.0

7.8

2.7

r

r

.5

11.1

13.5

11.4

3.9

9.2
4.0
1.6
2.1
.9

-

1.9

1.8

Ch ange, mon th to mont b
1985:

1986:

0.5

Apr
Mav
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec r

1.2

-0.6

2

-.8
-.1
.9

.7
-.4
0

— ./
-1.0

-.3

— .5

.9
.7
.6

1.7
1.1
1.0

.6
7
.6

~ .1
-1.6
-1.1

-.6

-.9

2
.2
.3

Jan r
Feb
Mar r.
Apr

— .4

-2.3
-2.3
-1.4

-1.6

.3

-.6

-1

0.1
.1
.1
.1
2
-.5
1.0
.2
•1

-4.2
-7.1

2.2
3.2
2.2

1.1
-1.1
.1
4.2

-.1
7.2

9.2

-.2
.1
.3
.3

1.2

-2.9
-2.8
— .5

-2.9
16.0

3.4
7.8

6.0

2.6

— 2.1

2.8

1.6
1.0
1.7
1.0
-.1
.6
1.5
3.2

-3.8
-4.5
— 2.0
-3.3
-4.4

3.6

1.4

2.9
1.1
3.6
.6

1.6

-4.6
-7.4

-6.2
-12.4
-12.2

1.7

.8
.1

8.9
8.1
.1
.6

-2.4

3.8
1.9
1.5
1.5
1.7
-.9
2.7
2.8
5.6

4.7

-5.7

-9.8
-19.7
-21.4

-4.6

.7
2.7

-5.1

2.4

.5
-3.4
-7.0
-10.6

.7
1.0
1.1
.9
.8
.2
1.1

1.7
1.5
3.1
1.7

1.6
.3
2

0
3.8
6.1

-1.2
29

3.1
2.8
3.3
2.6
1.8
.3
2.1
2.3
2.3

2.6
2.9
2.8

1.4
-.1

1.4

1.8

-1.4
-2.1

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted hv NSA]
Housing

Tr. nsportati m
f

Shelter
Period

Fuel

All

Food
Total '
Total

l

Renters'

Homeowners'

other
utili-

parel
and
upkeep

Total '

cars

Adden lum: All ite ns, percent hange
(annua rate)

All
items
less
food,
energy,
and

Ap-

Medical
care

fuel

Energy2

From
OlIS

From
3
months

From
6
months

year
earlier
NSA

C mnge, D ecember to Dec imber, !N SA

9.0

1978
1979

13.3
12.4

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

8.9
3.9
3.8
4.0
3.8

11.8
10.2
10.2
4.3

3.1
2.6
3.8
2.7

9.9
15.2
13.7
10.2

3.6
3.5
4.2
4.3

5.9

9.9
2.4
4.7
5.2
6.0

5.1
5.9
6.3

4.5
5.1
5.9

3.2

7.7

6.2

16.0
13.6
14.5

11.5
17.4
15.1

5.5
6.8
3.6
1.6
2.9
2.0
2.9

18.2
14.7
11.0

7.4
7.5

9.7
1.8
4.2
1.9

1.7
3.9
3.1
2.6

6.8
1.6
3.4
2.4

8.5

52.2
18.9

9.4
-6.5
-1.7
-2.4

8.8

10.1
10.0
12.5
11.0

8.0

37.4

18.1
11.9

1.3

6.4

3.5

3.0

0.6

0.2

1.7

— .2

.2
2
.1
o

.9
.3
.1
— .4

7.7

6.5
7.2

11.3
13.5

9.9
9.4
6.1
5.0

g

6.1
6.7

.2
1.8

1.1
.4
.1

6.1

4.4

0.5
.6

10.4
3.2
4.3
3.6

3.7

Clu nge, mo nth to nloflth
1985:

Apr
Mav
June

0.0
-.1
_2
.0
.1
.4
.1
.7
.6

0.3
.5
.3
.3
.4
.1
.3
.5
.3

0.5
.9
.4
.5
.6
2
.0
.7

.3

.2

.3

-.4

-.7
.1
.3

.4
.4

0.3
.2
9

.2
.2
.2
.4
.6

Julv

Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

1986:

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr

.4

-A
-.S

i

2

.3

.4

.6
.9

0.4
.9
.5
.4
.4

.3
1

.6
.3
0

.3
.5
1.1

.4

0.1
-.0
.3
-.1
.1
.4
.4
.3

4

.3

— .0

.3
.3
.9
.8

.2

-.3

.o

— 1.2
-1.0

— .5

~1.4

-.1
.3

-2.8
-2.5

0.5
1.0
.3
.8
.6
.2
.3
.7

0.4
0
.5
— .\

-.2
2
— 9

— .7

0
.0
-.2
-.2

.2

-.6

.4

.4

— 2

.7

.3
.3

.8
.5

.4

.2
-6.0
2 -11.9
.6 -11.2

.4

.4

2

.6
.6
.n
.5

-.4

.7

.4

0.3
-.0
.2
.2
.2
_2
.5
.0
.3

.4

.1

.5

.7
1.0
.6

-3.8
-6.5
-5.8

2

./

-.2
.6

.2
.2

1
2

Includes items not shown separately.
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oi!, coolant,
etc., also included through 1982.
3
Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter.

24




Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

4.0

4.6
4.2
3.3
2.6

2.6
2.6

2.4

3.1
4.5
4.3

5.3
5.1
1.2

1.5

-1.9
-4.3

3.6
3.8

3.7
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.6
3.8

4.1
2.9
1.6
.3

3.9
3.2
2.3
1.6

3.6

3.6
3.6
3.6
3.4
2.8
2.9

PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received by farmers in May were 2.5 percent above their April level. Prices paid by farmers in April were
1.8 percent below their February level.
INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE)

INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE)

60

60
1986
I/RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE- DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

[1977 =

100]

P rices paid by farmer S

Pri :es received by farm ers

Period

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985:

May
June
July

Aug
Sept

Oct
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan
Feb
Mar r.
Apr
May




All commodities,
All farm
products

products

115
132
134
139
133
135
142
129
130
128
127
122
121
123
127
128
124
122
122
121
124

105
116
125
134
121
128
139
121
126
123
123
115,
112
111
116
118
113
111
111
114
116

interest, taxes,
and wage rates l

124
147
144
143
145
141
146
136
134
134
130
128
128
134
138
137
135
133
132
127
131
4

Production
items, interest,
taxes, and wage
rates

108
123

109
125

138
150
157
160
164
163
164
164
163
162
162
162
162
162
163
163
(3)
160
(3)

139
151
155
159
161
157
159
158
156
156
155
154
155
155
156
155
(3)
152
(3)

Production
items

108

125
138
148
150
153
155
151
152
151
150
149
148
148
149
149
150
149
(3)
145
(3)

Ratio

2

106
107
97
93
85
84
86
79
79
78
78
75
75
76
78
79
76
75
75
76
* 78

Derived using prices paid index for Apri.

NOTE,—The official indexes are p
ave been converted to a 1977 = 100
Source: Department of Agriculture.

25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES
Growth in Ml was little changed in April, but growth in M2 and M3 accelerated.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
3,400
3,200

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
3,400
3,200
2,800

2,800

2,400

2,400

2,000

2,000

\
"M2-

1,600

1,600

1,200

1,200

800

800

700

700

600

600

500

500

400

300

300

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

- AVERAGES Of DAILY FIGURES; SEASONAUY ADJUSTED

1986
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

[Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
M2

Ml

Period

1978:
197.9:
1980:
1981:
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
1985:

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Apr
Mav
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr*

Sum of currency,
demand deposits,
travelers' checks,
and other
checkable
deposits (OODs)

363.0
388.7
414.2
441.1
479.9
527.1
558.5
626.6
575.7
582.5
590.9
596.2
604.8
611.5
614.2
620.1
626.6
627.2
631.1
638.4
646.1

M3

Ml plus overnight
RPs and
Eurodollars,
MMMF balances
(general purpose
and broker/dealer),
savings and small
time deposits
1,388.9
1,497.5
1,680.3
1,792.8
1,952.6
2,186.0
2,373.8
2,565.8
2,434.4
2,451.9
2,479.0
2,496.1
2,515.4
2,529.5
2,538.4
2,550.8
2,565.8
2,569.1
2,576.8
2,591.3
2,621.6

1
Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and Jocal governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts.
2
Annual changes are from December to December and month])' changes are from 6 montjjs earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.

26




M2 plus large
time deposits,
term RPs, term
Eurodollars, and
institution-only
MMMF balances

1,646.4
1,803.2
1,987.4
2,233.6
2,443.5
2,697.3
2,986.6
* 3,200,1
3,052.0
3,069.9
3,098.0
3,113.3
3,131.4
3,151.5
3,166.0
3,180.9
3,200.1
3,222.9
3,239.5
3,259.2
3,288.8

L

M3 plus
other liquid
assets

1,909.0
2,114.8
2,323.3
2,593.7
2,850.1
3,163.5
3,532.3
' 3,836.8
'3,618.9
'3,638.2
' 3,667 .4
'3,685.2
'3,713.1
'3,741.1
3,762.3
3,798.8
3,836.8
3,858.8
3,878.4
3,891.2

Debt

Debt of
domestic
nonfinancial
sectors
(monthlv
average) *

3,169.5
3,554.5
3,894.6
4,269.6
4,661.1
5,191.9
5,951.9
r
6,801.0
6,194.5
6,259.0
6,323.5
'6,392.6
'6,462.4
'6,527.2
6,593.6
6,679.1
6,801.0
6,904.3
6,961.9
7,013.9

Perce nt change from year or 6
months earlier 2

Ml

8.3
7.1
6.6
6.5
8.8
9.8
6.0
12.2
9.7
10.5
11.9
12.2
12.9
14.2
13.8
13.3
12.4
10.7
8.9
9.0
10.7

NOTE.—See p. 27 for components.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

M2

8.0
7.8
8.9
10.0
8.9
12.0
8.6
8.1
9.8
9.0
9.1
8.2
7.9
8.4
8.7
8.2
7.1
5.9
4.9
4.9
6.7

MS

11,8
9.5
10.2
12.4
9.4
10.4
10.7
r
7.1
8.8
7.9
7.6
6.7
6.5
7.0
7.6
7.4
6.7
7.2
7.0
7.0
7.9

Debt

13.3
12.1
9.6
9.6
9.2
11.4
14.6
14.3
14.2
13.5
12.9
12.8
'13.2
13.3
13.3
13.9
15.7
16.5
16.1
15.5

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]

Period

Demand
deposits

Currency

Other
checkable
depos-

its

(OCDs)

Overnight
repurchase
agreements
(RPs),
net, plus
overnight
Eurodollars
NSA

1978: Dec
1979: Dec
1980: Dec
1981: Dec
1982: Dee
1983: Dec
1984: Dec
1985: Dec r ..
1985:
Apr
May
June
July

Aug
Sept

Oct
Nov
Dec

253.5
261.1
265.3
234.6
237.9
148.3 242.7
158.5 248.4

97.6
106.4
116.7
124.1
134.3

8.5

Money market
mutua fund
balaiices
General
purpose
and
broker/
dealer
NSA

Institution
only

NSA

3.1
9.5

20.3
21.2
28.3
35.9
38.8
53.8
56.3
69.6

33.4
61.6
150.6
185.2
138.2
167.5
176.5

15.2
38.0
51.1
43.2
62.7
64.6

6.4

Money
market
deposit
accounts
(MMDAs)

Large
denomination
time
deposits l

Small
denomination
tune
deposits 1

NSA

0.0
.0
.0
.0

Term
repurchase
agreements
(RPs)

Term
Eurodollars
(net)

NSA

Savings
deposits

NSA

Savings
bonds

Shortterm
Treas-

ury
securities

26.6
29.5
34.0
36.0
34.5
51.8
62.2
65.5

31.8
44.7
50.3
67.5
81.7
91.5
83.1
77.0

80.3
79.6

825.1
852.8
785.2
887.5
880.3

195.1
222.1
259.0
301.8
327.8
329.9
413.9
436.5

72.3
67.8
68.0
71.2
74.3
79.5

Bankers'
acceptances

22.0
27.2
32.1
39.9
44.3
44.5
43.6
41.1

79.2
97.0
98.1
102.8
109.9
135.6
161.8
209.5

47.5
46.3
44.5
r
43.7
r
43.6
r
43.2
43.9
43.1
41.1

167.7
168.6
165.7
171.6
182.9
187.2
192.5
196.4
209.5

41.5
42.1
41.6

210.6
209.2
209.5

81.1
107.8
133.4
149.6
184.4
214.9
266.0
306.7

521.5
635.3
730.2

43.2
379.2
417.0
512.0

482.0
423.9
401.4
344.8
357.9
306.6
289.7
303.6

170.6

271.5

17.4
28.0
78.0
103.4
131.3
146.3
178.6

161.9
163.2
164.4
165.3
166.9
167.7
168.7
169.8
170.6

251.8
255.4
259.0
260.4
263.1
266.4
266.0
267.8
271.5

156.5
158.4
161.8
164.8
169.0
171.5
173.7
176.7
178.6

57.8
61.3
60.8
60.7
63.6
r
64.2
r
64.7
65.8
r
69.6

176.2
172.2
175.4
175.8
176.8
176.7
177.0
176.8
176.5

59.6
63.5
67.1
65.0
63.6
62.3
63.3
64.5
64.6

462.5
466.4
478.1
487.2
495.2
499.8
504.1
509.5
512.0

289.0
290.8
293.6
296.7
299.7
300.3
302.3
303.7
303.6

887.6
889.5
890.3
888.0
880.9
878.3
875.7
876.0
880.3

425.9
425.0
422.7
418.3
421.0
425.6
429.7
432.9
436.5

59.8
57.7
57.1
55.7
57.1
r
58.4
r
59.4
r
62.8
r
65.5

80.9
81.4
79.2
78.8
80.0
80.2
r
79.3
r
79.1
r
77.0

75.7
76.1
76.5
76.7
77.2
78.0
78.5
79.0
79.5

276.0
277.4
282.6
279.9
278.1
281.3
281.4
299.5
306.7

171.9
172.9
173.9
174.4

268.9
269.2
273.2
275.6

180.5
183.1
185.2
189.9

68.0
67.5
66.4
67.3

177.7
181.0
186.2
191.8

67.3
67.7
70.2
74.1

515.7
516.4
520.5
525.1

304.0
305.0
306.9
311.5

886.0
891.0
894.7
896.2

447.9
451.2
450.4
451.9

68.2
69.8
70.6
68.7

75.9
78.9
81.6
80.3

79.9
80.5
81.1

303.9
307.2
299.9

Cornpaper

r

r
r

1986:

Jan r
Feb r

Mar r

Apr*1

1
Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than
$100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively.

Travelers checks are a component of money stock but are not shown here.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

NOTE.—See note p. 26.

CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT
[Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted]
Net change in in staUment ere dit outstandii] g 1

Ins bailment credit outstanding !end of perio i)

Period

1976:
1977:
1978:
1979:
1980:
1981:
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
1985:

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Mar
Apr
May
June
July

Aug
Sept

Oct
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan

Feb r

Mar"
1

Other

Total

Automobile

Revolving

Revolving

187,782
221,475
261,976
296,483
297,667
314,321
327,173
376,239
453,580
535,098

66,821
80,948
98,739
112,475
112,255
120,020
125,369
145,908
173,122
206,482

16,595
36,689
45,202
53,357
54,894
60,750
66,007
78,369
98,514
118,296

15,738
16,362
16,921
18,207
19,119
20,382
20,998
22,194
24,184
25,461

88,628
87,476
101,114
112,444
111,399
113,169
114,799
129,768
157,760
184,859

20,739
33,693
40,501
34,507
1,184
16,654
12,852
49,066
77,341
81,518

9,832
14,127
17,791
13,736
-220
7,765
5,349
20,539
27,214
33,360

2,088
20,094
8,513
8,155
1,537
5,856
5,257
12,362
20,145
19,782

474,989
482,532
488,862
493,253
500,039
506,090
516,420
522,978
528,621
535,098

181,514
184,526
187,533
189,459
191,201
192,923
198,656
201,994
203,766
206,482

105,297
107,417
108,372
109,260
110,904
112,373
113,850
115,218
117,050
118,296

24,468
24,570
24,670
24,768
25,015
25,173
25,341
25,320
25,315
25,461

163,710
166,019
168,287
169,766
172,919
175,621
178,573
180,446
182,490
184,859

8,299
7,543
6,330
4,391
6,786
6,051
10,330
6,558
5,643
6,477

3,263
3,012
3,007
1,926
1,742
1,722
5,733
3,338
1,772
2,716

2,924
2,120

542,753
547,761
551,474

210,661
213,343
214,431

119,682
120,724
122,190

25,371
25,483
25,714

187,039
188,212
189,139

7,655
5,008
3,713

4,179
2,682
1,088

1,386
1,042
1,467

For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change fr om preceding
month.




Mobile
home

Automobile

Total

955
888
1,644
1,469
1,477
1,368
1,832
1,246

Mobile
home

Other

350
624

559
1,286

912
1,263

616
1,196
1,990
1,277

108
102
100
98
247
158
168
-21
r

146
-90
112
232

8,469
-1,152
13,638
11,330
1,045
1,770
1,630
14,969
27,992
27,099
2,004
2,309
2,268
1,479
3,153
2,702
2,952
1,873
2,044
2,369

2,180
1,173

926

Source: 1 oard of Goverr ors of the Fed ral Reserve Sj stem.

27

BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES, AND RESERVES
Commercial and industrial loans rose 0.4 percent in April.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
2,000

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
2,000

1986
- SEASONAUY ADJUSTED.
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Al commercial ban k s 1

Depo itory institutio n s 3

B sserves adjust ad
for changes \ n
res erve requirem ents

Loans a nd leases
Period

Total loans

i

and

securities
Total

1978:
1979:
1980:
1981:
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
1985:

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr"

1,013.8
1,135.4
1,239.7
1,307.4
1,400.5
1,553.0
1,716.8
1,895.5
1,768.8
1,788.5
1,802.7
1,819.0
1,828.8
1,841.3
1,844.4
1,869.6
1,895.5
1,919.6
1,926.2
1,941.5
1,944.1

2

746.9
849.1
914.5
967.4
1,032.8
1,122.7
1,316.5
1,450.3
1,367.1
1,380.0
1,391.0
1,402.1
1,409.2
1,416.9
1,419.7
1,433.9
1,450.3
1,465.4
1,470.5
1,493.0
1,500.2

Commercial
and industrial
loans
246.1
291.1

326.9
355.1
391.5
412.8
469.0
493.9
481.9
484.3
484.3
484.1
485.7
487.2
487.0
490.6
493.9
494.2
495.3
502.1
504.3

U.S.
Government
securities

28




securities
Total

137.6
144.4
170.9
179.6
202.7
260.8
260.3
270.7

129.2
141.9
154.4
160.4
165.0
169.6
140.0
174.5
140.2
142.2
144.5
145.4
148.2

261.4
266.3
267.1
271.6
271.4
273.1
270.0
275.0
270.7
264.6
270.8
268.0
264.7

1
Data are prorated averages of Wednesday figures for domestically chartered hanks and averages
of month-end data for foreign-related institutions. Data beginning January 1984 are not strictly
comparable with data for earlier periods, largely because beginning January 1984 certain obligations
of States and political subdivisions are included in loans rather than in other securities.
2
Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States.

Borr wings
(millions of dollars,
unad usted)

151.3
154.8
160.7
174.5
189.6
184.9
180.5
179.2
3

27.91
29.20
31.04
32.10
34.28
36.14
39.08
r
45.61
r
41.15
r
41.86
r
42.67
r
43.08
r
43.65
r
43.88
r
44.24
' 44.85
r
45.61
r
45.88
r
46.37
r
46.87
47.27

borrowed
27.04
27.73
29.35
31.46

33.65
35.36
35.90
r
44.29
''39.83
r
40.52
r
41.46
r
41.98
r
42.58
r
42.59
r
43.06
r
43.11
r
44.29
r
45.11
r
45.49
r
46.10
46.38

Required

27.67
28.76
30.52
31.78
33.78
35.58
38.23
r
44.55
r
40.41
r
41.05
r
41.76
r
42.23
r
42.83
r
43.22
r
43.49
r
43.92
' 44.55
r
44.77
r
45.27
r
45.97
46.47

Total

868

1,473
1,690
636

634
774
3,186
1,318
1,323
1,334
1,205
1,107
1,073
1,289
1.187
1,741
1,318
770
884
761
893

Data are averages of daily figures.

NOTE.—Reserves series revised; revised data prior to ApriS 1985 not yet available.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,

Seasonal

135
81

116
54
33
96
113
56
135
165
151
167
221
203
172
107
56
36
56
68
73

SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL
CORPORATE BUSINESS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Sources

Uses
External

Period

Or edit market fu nds

Internal 1

Total

Total
Total

Securities
and
mortgages

Loans and
short-term
paper

Other 2

Total

Capital
expenditures 3

Increase in
financial
assets

Discrepancy
(sources less
uses)

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985*

324.5
354.0
348.6
380.8
329.4
435,1
511.3
473.5

182.3
197.6
200.1
239.5
242.3
288.1
338.1
370.4

142.2
156.5
148.5
141.3
87.1
147.0
173.1
103.1

81.0
88.2
93.0
92.2
83.5
84.7
115.4
75.3

33.3
21.0
52.1
21.8
44.0
57.3
-11.2
11.7

47.7
67.3
40.9
70.4
39.5
27.4
126.5
63.6

61.3
68.2
55.5
49.2
3.6
62.3
57.8
27.8

309.0
362.5
341.6
349.6
283.6
395.1
457.6
430.9

216.9
238.3
244.1
286.3
256.3
271.4
376.3
367.2

92.0
124.3
97.5
63.3
27.3
123.8
81.4
63.7

15.5
-8.5
7.0
31.2
45.8
40.0
53.6
42.6

1984: I
II
Ill
IV

532.6
521.1
462.7
528.7

324.8
334.4
343.9
349.6

207.8
186.7
118.8
179.1

113.9
92.5
85.2
169.8

-27.8
-57.6
.5
40.3

141.7
150.1
84.7
129.5

93.8
94.3
33.6
9.4

491.9
468.1
394.5
476.0

356.6
381.8
385.5
381.1

135.3
86.3
9.0
94.9

40.7
53.0
68.2
52.6

1985: I
II

423.9
462.9
481.5
525.5

358.3
364.6
382.7
376.1

65.6
98.3
98.8
149.4

64.8
74.2
56.0
106.3

-13.4
31.6
11.2
17.5

78.2
42.6
44.8
88.8

.7
24.0
42.9
43.1

390.5
418.8
441.8
472.2

356.7
366.0
365.5
380.8

33.8
52.8
76.3
91.4

33.5
44.0
39.7
53.3

m
IV

1

Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital
consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained
abroad.
2
Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S.

3
Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S.
Government.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstem.

CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL
CORPORATIONS
[Billions of dollars, except as noted]

C urrent liabilitit s

Curren assets
End of period

QFK-FRB series: z
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985"
1983: in
IV
1984: I
II

m

IV
1985: I r r

n
ni r
IV




Total

1,043.7
1,214.8
1,328.3
1,419.6
1,437.1
1,575.9
1,703.0
1,778.5
1,537.3
1,575.9
1,619.5
1,650.0
1,685.9
1,703.0
1,718.4
1,729.8
1,756.7
1,778.5

Cash

105.5
118.0
127.0
135.6
147.8
171.8
173.6
188.0
155.0
171.8
167.6
164.9
161.3
173.6
166.7
168.0
174.6
188.0

U.S.
Government
securities

17.2
16.7

18.7
17.7
23.0
31.0
36.2
32.3
27.5
31.0
35.4
37.2
33.0
36.2
35.0
34.8
31.9
32.3

Notes and
accounts
receivable

388.0
459.0
507.5
532.5
517.4
583.0
633.1
671.2
567.5
583.0
606.4
622.6
639.1
633.1
649.5
652.4
658.6
671.2

Inventories

431.8
505.1
543.0
584.0
579.0
603.4
656.9
663.9

600.8
603.4
622.2
632.5
659.3
656.9
666.1
666.6
674.7
663.9

Other
current
assets

101.1

116.0
132.1
149.7
169.8
186.7
203.2
223.2
186.6
186.7
187.9
192.9
193.2
203.2
201.0
208.0
217.0
223.2

Total

669.5
807.3
890.6
971.3
986.0
1,059.6
1,163.6
1,232.7
1,040.2
1,059.6
1,093.1
1,126.3
1,155.0
1,163.6
1,173.2
1,179.4
1,209.1
1,232.7

Notes and
accounts
payable

383.0
460.8
514.4
547.1
550.7
595.7
647.8
683.1
571.0
595.7
601.9
623.4
642.2
647.8
636.4
649.8
668.1
683.1

Other
current
liabilities

286.5
346.5
376.2
424.1
435.3

463.9
515.8
549.7
469.2
463.9
491.2
502.9
512.9
515.8
536.8
529.7
541.0
549.7

Net
working
capital

374.3
407.5
437.8
448.3
451.1
516.3

539.5
545.7
497.1
516.3
526.5
523.7
530.8
539.5
545.2
550.3
547.6
545.7

Current
ratio l

1.559
1.505
1.492
1.462
1.458
1.487
1.464
1.443
1.478
1.487

1.482
1.465
1.460
1.464
1.465
1.467
1.453
1.443

the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census from the Federal Trade Commission.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau
of the Census), and Federal Trade Commission.

29

INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS
Most interest rates rose in May.
PERCENT PER ANNUM

PERCENT PER ANNU

1

CORPORATE Aaa BONDS

\
>

(MOODY'S)
v

/^
/
'

\
\

[Percent per annum]

U.S. T reasury security jdelds
Period

1980
1981
1982
1983

3-month bills
(new issues) *
11.506
14.029
10.686

8.63
9.58
7.48

1984
1985
1985: May
June
July

Aug
Sept

Get
~Sov

Dec
1986: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May

Constant Hlaturities 2
3-year
11.55
14.44
12.92
10.45
11.89

9.64

10-year

High-grade
municipal
bonds
(Standard &
Poor's) 3

Corporate
Aaa bonds
(Moody's) *

Prime
commercial
paper,
6 months l

Discount rate
(N.Y. F.K.
Bant)5

11.46
13.91
13.00
11.10
12.44
10.62

8.51
11.23
11.57
9.47
10.15
8.18

11.94
14.17
13.79
12.04
12.71
11.37

12.29
14.76
11.89
8.89
10.16
8.01

15.27
18.87
14.86
10.79
12.04
9.93

11.77
13.41
11.02

8.00-7.50
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.50

Prime rate
charged by
banks 5

7.56
7.01
7.05
7.18
7.08
7.17
7.20
7.07
7.04
7.03
6.59
6.06
6.12

9.75
9.05
9.18
9.31
9.37
9.25
8.88
8.40
8.41
8.10
7.30
6.86
7.27

10.85
10.16
10.31
10.33
10.37
10.24
9.78
9.26

9.08
8.78
8.90
9.18
9.37
9.24
8.64
8.51

11.72
10.94
10.97
11.05
11.07
11.02
10.55
10.16

9.19
8.70
7.78
7.30
7.71

8.06
7.44
7.07
7.32
7.67

10.05
9.67
9.00
r
8.79
9.09

7.88
7.38
7.57
7.74
7.86
Y.79
7.69
7.62
7.62
7.54
7.08
6.47
6.53

6.08
6.07
6.07
6.22
6.15
6.33

7.07
6.98
7.28
7.45
7.47

7.44
7.44
7.75
7.90
7.88

7.43
7.44
7.61
7.90
7.74

8.97
8.98
9.12
9.17
9.14

6.44
6.42
6.52
6.63
6.61

8.50
8.80
7.69

7.50-7.50
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.00
7.00-6.50

6.50 6.50

10.50-10.00
10.00- 9.50

9.509.509.509.509.509.509.509.509.509.008.50-

9.50
9.50
9.50
9.50
9.50
9.50
9.50
9.50
9.00
8.50
8.50

New-home
mortgage
yields
(FHLBB)6
12.66

14.70
15.14
12.57
12.38
11.55
12.01
11.75
11.34
11.24
11.17
11.09
11.01
10.94
10.89
10.68
' 10.50
10.28

Week ended:

1986: May 3
10
17
24
31
June 7
1

Bank-discount basis.
2
Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department.
3
Weekly data are Wednesday figures.
4
Series excludes public utility issues for January 17, 1984 through October 11, 1984 due to lack
of appropriate issues.

30




6.50-6.50

6.50 6.50
6.50-6.50
6.50-6.50
6.50-6.50

6.50-

8,50- 8.50
8.50- 8.50
8.50- 8.50
8.50- 8.50
8.50- 8.50
8.50-

5
Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week.
8
Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as
well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years.

Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS
Overall, stock prices rose slightly in May.
INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50

INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50

COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX
(NYSE)

PERCENT

PERCENT

20

20
EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS
(S&P)

15

15

10

10

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1986
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION

Co nrnon stock price S '
New • York Stock Exc hange indexes (E ec. 31, 1965-5 3)

2

Period
Composite

1986:

Transportation

Finance

Utility

Standard &
Poor's
composite
index (194143 = 10)4

Dividendprice ratio

68.10
74.02
68.93
92.63
92.46
108.09

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

1985
1985:

Industrial

Dow-Jones
industrial
average 3

Common st ock 5yields
(peree u t )

Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr r
May

Week ended:
1986: Apr 26
May 3
10
17
24
31
1

78.70
85.44
78.18
107.45
108.01
123.79

60.61
72.61
60.41
89.36
85.63
104.11

37.35
38.91
39.75
47.00
46.44
56.75

64,25
73.52
71.99
95.34
89.28
114.21

891.41
932.92
884.36
1,190.34
1,178.48
1,328.23

118.78
128.05
119.71
160.41
160.46
186.84

5.26
5.20
5.81
4.40
4.64
4.25

104.66
107.00
109.52
111.64
109.09
106.62
107.57
113.93
119.33

119.93
121.88
124.11
126.94
124.92
122.35
123.65
130.53
136.77

96.47
99.66
105.79
111.67
109.92
104.96
103.72
108.61
113.52

109,39
115,31
118.47
119.85
114.68
110.21
112.36
122.83
128.86

1,266.36
1,279.40
1,314.00
1,343.17
1,326.18
1,317.95
1,351.58
1,432.88
1,517.02

180.62
184.90
188.89
192.54
188.31
184.06
186.18
197.45
207.26

4.37
4.31
4.21
4.14
4.23
4.32
4.28

120.16
126.43
133.97
137.27
137.37

137.13
144.03
152.75
157.30
158.59

115.72
124.18
128.66
126.17
122.21

55.51
57.32
59.61
59.68
56.99
55.93
55.84
59.07
61.69
62.46
65.18
68.06
69.46
68.65

132.36
142.13
153.94
155.07
151.28

1,534.86
1,652.73
1,757.35
1,807.05
1,801.80

208.19
219.37
232.33
237.97
238.46

4.06
3.88
3.90
3.72
3.50
3.43
3.42

139.85
136.97
136.73
135.98
136.69
141.72

160.59
157.81
157.70
157.05
157.88
163.84

127.19
124.35
122.71
120.37
121.39
124.48

70.51
68.65
68.45
68.22
68.28
70.16

156.89
151.55
150.89
148.74
150.21
157.13

1,836.76
1,801.22
1,786.53
1,783.09
1,789.38
1,872.59

242.64
237.81
237.21
235.74
237.25
246.68

3




12.66
11.96
11.60
8.03
10.02
8.15

3.38
3.47
3.46
3.44
3.47
3.32

r

Average of daily closing prices,
Includes al! the" stocks {more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE.
Includes 30 stocks,
4
Includes 500 stocks.
5
Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings2

Earningsprice ratio

8.12
r

8.35

7.07

price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.
NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

31

FEDERAL FINANCE
FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT
In the first 7 months of fiscal 1986, there was a deficit of $126.4 billion compared with a deficit of $118.6 billion
a year earlier.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,000
RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS V

1,000
900

900
800

800

"OUTLAYS 1

700

700

600

600
RECEIPTS

500

500

400

400

-100

-200
1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1986

1985

1987

FISCAL YEARS
IX INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCES; DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

[Billions of dollars]

Fiscal year or period

Receipts

Outlays

Off-budget

On-budget

Total

Surplus
or deficit

Receipts

Outlays

(-)

Surplus
of deficit
(-)

Receipts

Outlays

Surplus
or deficit
(-)

1975
1976
Transition quarter
1977
1978
1979

279.1
298.1
81.2
355.6
399.6
463.3

332.3
371.8
96.0
409.2
458.7
503.5

53.2
-73.7
-14.7
-53.6
-59.2
-40.2

216.6
231.7
63.2
278.7
314.2
365.3

271.9
302.2
76.6
328.5
369.1
403.5

-55.3
-70.5
-13.3
-49.7
-54.9
38.2

62.5
66.4
18.0
76.8
85.4
98.0

60.4
69.6
19.4
80.7
89.7
100.0

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

517.1
599.3
617.8
600.6
666.5

590.9
678.2
745.7
808.3
851.8

-73.8
-78.9
-127.9
-207.8
-185.3

403.9
469.1
474.3
453.2
500.4

476.6
543.0
594.3
661.2
686.0

72.7
-73.9
120.0
-208.0
-185.6

113.2
130.2
143.5
147.3
166.1

114.3
135.2
151.4
147.1
165.8

-1.1
-5.0
-7.9

734.1
777.1
850.4

946.3
979.9
994.0

-212.3
-202.8
-143.6

547.9
579.2
636.1

769.5
795.2
795.4

-221.6
-216.0
-159.3

186.2
197.9
214.3

434.9
448.3

553.5
574.7

-118.6
-126.4

327.7
331.5

451.1
472.4

-123.4
-140.9

107.1
116.8

1985
1986
1987

1
1

Cumulative total, first 7
months:
Fiscal year 1985
Fiscal year 1986
1

Estimates.

NOTE.—Data from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1987, Office of Management and Budget, except cumulative monthly totals from Monthly Treasury Statement.

32




Gross Fee eral debt
(end of period)
Total

Held by
the public

544.1
631.9
646.4
709.1
780.4
833.8

396.9
480.3
498.3
551.8
610.9
644.6

.3

914.3
1,003.9
1,147.0
1,381.9
1,576.7

715.1
794.4
929.4
1,141.8
1,312.6

176.8
184.7
198.6

9.4
13.2
15.7

1,827.5
2,112.0
2,320.6

1,509.9
1,714.0
1,855.7

102.4
102.4

4.8
14.4

1,737.1
2,012.6

1,435.6
1,651.7

2.0

-3.2
-1.4
-3.9
-4.3
2.0

.2

Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND
OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
In the first 7 months of fiscal 1986, receipts were $13.4 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $21.2
billion higher.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

400
—

400

INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES

RECEIPTS!/

300

300
^^•"*"""

200

Qri(-|Al IMQIIDi
SOCIAL INSURANCE TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS

200

CORPORATION INCOME TAXES_

100

100

0

0

700

700

-OUTLAYS^/ -

"

600

NONDEFENSE

600

500

500

400

400

300

300
NATIONAL DEFENSE

200

200

100

100
1978

1979

1982

1981

1980

1983

1984

1985

1987

1986

FISCAL YEARS
_l/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]

0n-budget a nd off-buc £et receip s

Fiscal year
Total

Individual

Corporation

On-bud wet and of -budget on tlays
Nationa defense

Social
insurance
Other
contributions

1976
1977
1978
1979

298.1

88.1

97.2
104.5
116.3

95.3
102.3
113.7

590.9
678.2
745.7
808.3

134.0
157.5
185.3

131.0
153.8
180.7

209.0
239.4

50.6
69.5
69.3
65.6
71.8

851.8

209.9
227.4

61.3
70.9
86.7

265.2
280.4
302.8

73.0
72.1
74.9

946.3
979.9
994.0

35.4
35.1

149.2
161.9

41.7
42.8

553.5
574.7

34.3
36.6
37.7
40.8

244.1
285.9
297.7
288.9
298.4

64.6
61.1
49.2
37.0
56.9

157.8
182.7
201.5

850.4

334.5
353.7
386.0

434.9
448.3

208.6
208.4

1985
1986 *
1987 l

734.1
777.1

1

89.6

90.8
106.5
121.0
138.9

517.1

Cumulative total, first 7 months:
Fiscal year 1985
Fiscal year 1986

371.8
409.2
458.7
503.5

41.4
54.9
60.0
65.7

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

599.3

617.8
600.6
666.5

Health

Medi-

Social
securi-

Net
inter-

ty

est

Other

military

131.6
157.6
181.0
217.8

355.6
399.6
463.3

International

Total

Income
securitv

Depart-

Total

and

Estimates.

6.4
6.4
7.5
7.5

15.7
17.3
18.5

20.5

15.8

19.3
22.8
26.5

60.8
61.0
61.5
66.4

73.9
85.1
93.9
104.1

35.4
42.6

82.8
93.0
114.7
119.6

86.5
99.7
107.7
122.6

52.5
68.7
85.0
89.8
111.1

131.4
133.5
125.4
122.3
118.6

26.7
29.9

23.2

204.4
220.8

12.7
13.1
12.3
11.8
15.9

28.6
30.4

32.1
39.1
46.6
52.6
57.5

112.7

118.5
139.6
156.0
170.7
178.2

252.7
265.8
282.2

245.4
258.4
274.3

16.2
17.1
18.6

33.5
35.7
35.0

65.8
68.7
70.2

128.2
118.1
118.4

188.6
200.1
212.2

129.4
142.7
148.0

131.8
131.7
109.3

142.4

138.0

157.0

152.5

9.8
7.5

19.3
20.4

38.0
40.0

81.1
73.4

107.6
112.9

75.2
81.1

80.1
82.4

26.9
27.4

Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

NOTE.—Data shown here exclude the transition quarter.
Data from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1987, Office of Management
and Budget, except cumulative monthly totals from Monthly Treasury Statement.




33

FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS
In the first quarter of 1986, according ;o preliminary estimates. Federal receipts fell $0.6 billion (annual rate) and
expenditures fell $17.0 billion, yielding a deficit of $210.5 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,200

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1,200

1,000

1,000

800

800

600

600

400

1982

1978

1986

CALENDAR YEARS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Federal G overnment expenditure s

Federal Governmeiit receipts

Period

Total

Fiscal year:
1983
1984
1985
Calendar year:
1983
1984
1985
1982: HI
IT
1983: I

n
m

IV
1984: I

n
Ill

IV
1985: I

n
m

IV
1986: I r

Personal
tax and
nontax
receipts

644.6
710.1
773.1

292.9

658.1
725.1
784.7
630.3
633.1
636.3
665.2
659.7
671.1
709.4
721.8
727.1
742.1
789.7
754.9
790.7
803.5
802.9

295.0
311.3
350.7
298.1
303.0
297.1
304.2
286.2
292.5
297.8
303.9
315.7
327.8
363.9
321.3
355.4
362.1
356.0

304.0
345.2




299.5
342.2

347.4
352.2
373.0

85.7
90.7
97.8

90.6
109.7
128.7

21.2
23.5
21.4

0.4
— .1
.1

-188.9
-165.5
-190.1

284.8
312.9
355.4
275.3
293.2
287.1
287.0
286.0
279.2
285.6
314.8
318.5
332.9
334.4
337.8
364.8
384.7
357.8

348.5
355.1
379.8
329.1
347.4
344.4
350.8
346.6
352.3
350.5
351.9
356.2
361.9
374.1
376.7
383.5
384.8
388.5

86.2
93.6
99.0
83.3
84.5
85.8
85.8
87.1
86.2
91.3
93.0
93.0
97.3
95.7
97.6
100.6
102.0
111.0

94.3

115.5
129.2
87.1
87.2
88.0
91.1
96.8
101.2
107.2
110.4
119.5
124.8
126.4
130.1
127.1
133.0
135.1

23.2
21.1
21.1

— .4
.2
-.2

-179.4
-172.9

14.3
23.4

.0
.0

18.8
19.8
22.5
31.6

.0
-1.3
— .4

54.5
73.6
67.6

50.2

247.0
277.6
304.0

833.5

288.2

875.6
963.2

59.3
74.4

51.6
55.8
57.0
47.1
47.6
46.3
52.8
53.7
53.6
54.6
55.8
56.7
56.2
55.5
60.2
55.4
56.9
62.1

252.2
283.6

837.5
898.0
984.7
789.1
835.7
824.2
835.8
839.4
850.6
867.2
884.9
905.2
934.7
952.4
964.0
992.0
1,030.4
1,013.4

67.1
50.1
46.4
46.5
58.2
66.4
66.1
78.9
80.1
69.4
69.2
65.9
65.0
68.9
68.5
61.3

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

34

Net
interest
paid

Contributions for
social
insurance

54.9
56.4

309.9
235.0
236.1
246.5
250.1
253.4
258.8
278.1
282.0
285.4
288.9
304.4
308.4
311.0
315.9
323.5

or deficit

Transfer
payments

Indirect
business
tax and
nontax
accruals

Total

Subsidies
less
current
surplus of
Government
enter-

Grantsin-aid to
State
and
local
governments

Purchases
of goods
and
services

Corporate
profits
tax
accruals

32.7
15.1
18.0
18.5
21.9
20.9
15.9
25.9
21.0

Less:
Wage
accruals
less
disbursements

.0
.2
.2
.0
.6
.1
-1.0

.0
.0
.0

national
income
and
product
accounts

-200.0
-158.8
-202.6
-187.9
-170.6
-179.7
-179.5
-157.8
-163.0
-178.1
-192.7
-162.6
-209.1
-201.3
-226.9
-210.5

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
Consume r prices (] 967 = 100)

Industrial reduction (1977=1 X); seasonal] ' adjusted

Period

United
States

Canada

Japan

France

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985"

110.7
108.6
111.0
103.1
109.2
121.8
124.5

109.8
108.1
109.0
97.4
102.9
112.0
116.8

113.7
118.9
120.1
120.6
124.7

1985: Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

124.1
124.1
124.3
124.1
125.2
125.1
124.4
125.4
126.4

115.0
115.0
116.4
118.1
118.1
118.0
119.1
' 120.1
' 120.3

144.5
148.2
145.1
147.8
146.0
144.6
145.7
144.1
145.1

r

144.4
144.5

Germany

Italy

107
107
105
102

r

,.

' 126.7
125.7
' 124.9
125.1

1986: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr p
1

120.2
121.0

United
States '

107

217.4
246.8
272.4
289.1
298.4
311.1
322.2

221.0
243.5
273.9
303.5

108.7
114.7

r

1979

United
Kingdom

107

106
103
101
102
105
106

103
106
112

105
104
108
108
105
107
109
104

110
111
113
116
112
112
116
117
110

' 107.6
' 108.5
r
lll.l
' 107.3
' 105.8
' 110.6
' 106.9
' 110.9
' 106.6

!04

113
113

r

100
96
98
101
103
108

112.1
109.6
103.9
107.1
108.4

138.4
144.8

!05

105

Data relate to all urban consumers.

108.3
111.2

109
109
108
108
108
r

!09
!08

r

110
108
r

!08
110

Canada

Italy

United
Kingdom

Japan

France

Germany

321.0
335.0
348.3

261.3
282.3
296.2
304.1
309.7
316.6
323.0

259.1
294.2
332.7
373.1
407.9
439.5
465.1

166.9
175.8
186.9
196.8
203.3
208.2
212.7

328.5
398.0
472.4
549.4
631.8
698.8
764.7

359.0
423.6
473.9
514.7
538.3
565.1
599.4

320.1
321.3
322.3
322.8
323.5
324.5
325.5
326.6
327.4

345.7
346.5
348.3
349.5
350.1
350.5
351.7
353.1
354.7

321.9
323.3
323.5
323.8
320.7
323.8
328.4
325.0
325.2

462.2
464.5
466.4
468.2
468.7
469.2
470.6
471.5
472.1

212.9
213.1
213.3
212.9
212.2
212.6
212.9
213.3
213.5

756.1
760.6
764.4
766.7
768.2
771.3
780.6
786.1
791.6

600.6
603.4
604.7
603.5
605.1
604.8
605.8
607.9
608.7

328.4
327.5
326.0
325.3

356.3
357.7
358.5
359.1

325.8
324.4
323.5

472.6
471.7
472.9

213.8
213.3
212.8

795.6
801.2
804.4

610.0
612.2
613.0
619.0

Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis
and International Trade Administration).

U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
[Millions of dollars; monthly data for statistical month, not seasonally adjusted*]
Merc landise imports

Merc landise expo ts '
Total
foreign
exports

Total 2

Food,
beverages, and
tobacco

Crude
materials and
fuels

Mercha ndise trade lalance

Ger era! import a 3

Domestic exports
factored
goods

Total 2

Food,
beverages, and
tobacco

Crude
materials and
fuels

Exports
„

factured
goods

value)

6,379
8,360
9,352
10,427

less
imports
(customs
value)

13,368
15,504
18,519
21,415

Exports

Exports

imports
(f.a.s.)

imports
(c.i.f.)

I .a.s. valu e

Monthly average:
1977
1978
1979
1980

10,103
11,973
15,155
18,386

9,919
11,762
14,886
18,043

1,330
1,717

2,049
2,534

1,548
1,746
2,352
2,810

6,679
7,873
9,716
11,991

12,533
14,563
17,455
20,406

1,186

4,463

1,312
1,478
1,546

4,325
5,949
7,831

2,430

-2,590
2,300
-2,020

-3,265
3,530
-3,364
3,030

Customs value

1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985: Mar*
Apr*
May*
June*
July*
Aug*
Sept*
Oct*
Nov*
Dec*
1986: Jan*
Feb*
Mar*
Apr*

19,473
17,683
16,707
18,155
17,762
.-.

19,075
17,256
16,326
17,670
17,244

2,767
2,248
2,248
2,276
1,852

2,752
2,793
2,463
2,624
2,362

12,857
11,643
11,034
11,929
12,115

21,748
20,329
21,504
27,144
28,773

1,529
1,485
1,568
1,802
1,865

7,739
6,200
5,670
6,063
5,415

11,873
12,002
13,621
18,460
20,565

22,779 -2,275
2,647
21,240
22,490 -4,797
8,988
28,431
30,136 -11,011

3,306
-3,558
-5,783
- 10,276
-12,373

20,330
17,973
18,337
18,012
16,727
16,584
17,034
17,618
17,721
16,994

19,765
17,492
17,816
17,433
16,172
16,106
16,543
17,122
17,227
16,479

1,973
1,913
1,603
1,614
1,604
1,783
1,709
1,836
2,128
1,907

2,562
2,441
2,261
2,122
2,033
2,258
2,115
2,285
2,559
2,459

14,245
12,228
12,992
12,759
11,556
11,233
11,700
12,102
11,688
11,221

28,725
28,572
29,302
30,136
27,000
26,247
31,349
28,429
30,010
30,728

2,128
1,804
1,919
1,912
1,641
1,719
1,903
1,598
1,865
2,138

4,383
5,772
5,700
6,054
5,085
4,851
5,562
5,656
5,657
6,011

21,301
20,080
20,725
21,268
19,286
18,916
22,887
20,271
21,557
21,654

30,107
29,907
30,712
31,596
28,312
27,512
32,860
29,695
31,371
32,141

-8,395
-10,599
-10,965
— 12,124
-10,274
-9,663
-14,315
— 10,811
12,290
-13,734

9,777
-11,935
-12,375
-13,584
-11,585
-10,927
-15,826
-12,077
-13,651
-15,146

17,006
17,735
18,913
17,965

16,501
17,164
18,349
17,376

1,797
1,689
1,706
1,475

2,467
2,367
2,349
2,436

11,393
12,182
13,325
12,615

32,005
28,895
31,972

2,215
1,908
2,100

6,234
4,741
4,284

22,477
21,289
24,261

33,465 -14,999
30,225 — 11,161
33,435 -13,059
30,036

-16,459
-12,491
-14,522
-12,071

1
Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginning
January 1978.
2
Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.
3
Total arrivals of imported goods other than intranait shipments.
NOTE.—Imports on c.i.f- basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods.
Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Is-




lands exports are reflected in the figures for domestic and foreign exports combined and trade balance.
"Beginning with data released in March 1986, the Bureau of the Census no longer publishes
these data on a seasonally adjusted basis. For further information and for details regarding revised
statistical month and monthly carryover data, see Bureau of the Census release FT 900.
Source; Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

35

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
In the fourth quarter of 1985 the current account deficit rose to $36.6 billion from $29.3 billion in the third
quarter. The merchandise trade deficit rose to $39.5 billion from $33.0 billion in the third quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*
10

10

BALANCE ON GOODS
AND SERVICES

BALANCE ON
'
CURRENT ACCOUNT

V\ -^/
-5

—5

-10

MERCHANDISE TRADE
BALANCE

-10

\ _,,''
*'

-15

-15

-20

-20

-25

-25

-30

-30

-35

-35

-40

1

1

1

-40

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1985

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits ( + ), debits { —)]
1

Inivestment incon,e 3

Merchandise °

Net

Period
Exports

184,473
224,269
237,085
211,198
201,712
219,916
213,990

1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985"

Imports

N«*
et

balance

-212,009 -27,536
— 249,749 -25,480
-265,063 -27,978
-247,642 -36,444
-268,928 -67,216
-334,023 -114,107
-338,279 -124,289

Receipts

Payments

64,132
72,506
86,411
84,768
78,023
87,609
90,456

-32,960
-42,120
-52,329
-55,273
— 52,621
-68,500
-65,772

31,172
30,386
34,082
29,495
25,402
19,109
24,684

Net

military
transactions

Net
travel and
transportation
receipts

-1,778 -2,935
-997
— 2,237
144
-1,183
-992
-318
-4,721
-162
-8,974
-1,765
-2,045 -11,741

Other
services,
net3

Balance on
goods and
services 1

Remittances,
pensions,
and other
unilateral
transfers 1

Balance
on current
account

-991
4,659 -5,649
5,735
1,873
8,950 -7,077
7,277
6,339
-6,847
13,186
8,121
-8,051
-8,135
84
8,345
-45,994
9,557 -37,141 -8,852
-95,945 -11,413 -107,358
9,791
10,512 -102,880 — 14,784 -117,664

1983: I
II
HI
IV

49,535
49,048
49,992
53,137

-58,418
-64,928
-70,689
-74,893

-8,883
-15,880
-20,697
-21,756

17,935
19,172
20,985
19,932

-12,283
-12,856
-13,588
-13,893

5,652
6,316
7,397
6,039

703
-71
-126
-669

-448
-1,116
-1,422
-1,735

2,260
2,462
2,290
2,544

-716
-8,289
-12,558
-15,577

-1,606
-1,875
-2,204
-3,166

— 2,322
-10,164
-14,762
-18,743

1984:

53,469
54,556
55,649
56,242

-78,091
— 84,181
-84,626
-87,127

— 24,622
-29,625
-28,977
-30,885

23,502
20,895
21,769
21,445

-15,268
-17,277
-18,513
-17,442

8,234
3,618
3,256
4,003

-346
-593
-250
-575

-1,753
-2,050
-2,574
-2,597

2,582
2,412
2,452
2,344

-15,905
-26,238
-26,093
— 27,710

-2,212
-2,232
-2,876
-4,095

— 18,117
— 28,470
-28,969
-31,805

55,198
53,530
52,276
52,986

-78,563
-82,017
-85,231
-92,468

-23,365
-28,487
-32,955
-39,482

18,861
22,270
24,896
24,428

-16,331
-16,892
-16,245
-16,304

2,530
5,378
8,651
8,124

-212
-586
-429
-818

-2,389
-3,090
-3,112
-3,150

2,425
2,587
2,541
2,956

-21,011
-24,198
-25,304
-32,370

-3,172
-3,428
-3,996
-4,189

-24,183
-27,626
-29,300
-36,559

I
II

m
IV

1985: I
II
Ill
TV P....

United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

36




U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $8.6 billion in the fourth quarter of
1985 compared with an increase of $1.5 billion in the third quarter. Liabilities to private foreigners reported by
U.S. banks increased $20.5 billion, compared to an increase of $6.5 billion in the third quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*

60

60
CHANGE IN
FOREIGN ASSETS
IN THE U.S..NET

40

40

l\
I \
20

20

CHANGE IN
U.S. ASSETS
A BROAD, NET

-20

-20

-40

-40

-60

-60
1977

1983

1982

1981

1980

1984

1985

'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
U.S. assets

Foreign assets in the 1 T.S., net
[increase /capital inflox • ( + ) ] 2

abroad, net

[ ncrease/capitiil outflow ( — )
Period

U.S.

Total

1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985"

official
reserve
assets 1 2

Other U.S.
Government
assets

Total

Foreign
official
assets

Other
foreign
assets

-59,453
-3,746
5,162
-72,802
-5,097 -100,758
108,122
6,131
-5,006 -48,843
-11,800
5,516
-2,628 -31,697

38,752
58,112
83,322
94,447
84,322
97,319
123,108

-13,665
15,497
4,960
3,672
5,795
3,424
-1,908

52,416
42,615
78,362
90,775
78,526
93,895
125,016

U.S.
private
assets

Statistical c iscrepaney
Allocations
of special
drawing
rights
(SDRs)

1,139
1,152
1,093

Total (sum
of the items
with sign
reversed)

Of which:
Seasonal
adjustment
discrepancy

U g official
reserve
assets, net l
(unadjusted,
end of
period)
18,956
26,756
30,074
33,958
33,747
34,934
43,186

25,431
24,982
20,276
32,821
16,717
30,486
32,739

-64,331
-86,118
-111,031
-119,218
-55,045
— 20,447
— 38,183

-1,133
-8,155
5,175
-4,965
-1,196
-3,131
-3,858

1983: I
II
Ill

-26,127
-1,128
-9,814
-17,976

-787
16
529
-953

-1,135
-1,263
-1,171
-1,436

-24,205
119
-9,172
— 15,587

15,158
15,608
19,539
34,017

-161
1,706
-2,666
6,916

15,319
13,902
22,205
27,101

13,291
-4,316
5,037
2,702

-680
83
-2,953
3,547

34,261
33,876
33,066
33,747

1984: I
II

-4,976
-18,988
18,364
-14,846

-657
-566
-799
-1,110

-2,059
-1,353
-1,369
-734

-2,260
— 17,070
20,532
13,003

19,277
41,592
3,140
33,310

-2,786
-224
-686
7,119

22,063
41,816
3,825
26,191

3,816
5,866
7,466
13,341

-455
-573
-3,274
4,305

34,975
34,547
34,306
34,934

-462
-2,551
-12,748
-22,421

-233
-356
-121
-3,148

-850
-853
-392
-532

621
-1,342
12,235
-18,742

13,711
26,313
34,548
48,536

-11,204
8,465
2,435
-1,604

24,915
17,849
32,113
50,140

10,934
3,863
7,500
10,444

-425
-597
-3,650
4,674

35,493
36,088
38,295
43,186

rv

ni
IV

1985: I
II

m

TV...
1

Consists of go d, special drawi ng rights (SDRs , convertible cu rencies, and the U.S. reserve
position in the IMt




Sources: D epartment of C ammerce {Burea u of Economic ^ nalvsis) and De partment of the
Treasurv.

37

Contents
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING

Page

Gross National Product
Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product
Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures
Nonfmancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits
National Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Sources of Personal Income
Disposition of Personal Income
Farm Income
Corporate Profits
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment

1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
Status of the Labor Force
,
Selected Unemployment Rates
Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector

11
12
13
14
15
15
16

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures
New Construction
New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates
Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

17
18
19
19
20
21

PRICES
Producer Prices
Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers
Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods
Changes in Consumer Prices—AH Urban Consumers
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers

22
23
24
24
25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures
Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets
Consumer Installment Credit
Bank Loans and Securities, and Reserves
Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business
Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfmancial Corporations
Interest Rates and Bond Yields
Common Stock Prices and Yields

26
27
27
28
29
29
30
31

FEDERAL FINANCE
Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt
Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function
Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis

32
33
34

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries
U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports
U.S. International Transactions

35
35
36

General Notes
Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.
Unless other-wise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.
Symbols used:
p
Preliminary.
r
Revised.
' Corrected.
... Not available (also, not applicable).
NSA not seasonally adjusted.
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, B.C. 20402. Price $2.50 (single copy) ($3.13 foreign).
Subscription price: $27.00 per year; $33.75 for foreign mailing.
38




U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

:

1986

0—60-724


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102