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Joint Committee Print
Economic Indicators
MAY 1949
Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report
by the Council of Economic Advisers
and printed for the use of
the Joint Committee on the Economic Report
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1949
90364
JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, Chairman
EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Vice Chairman
FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania
WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas
JOHN J. SPARKMAN, Alabama
PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois
WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio
FRANK BUCHANAN, Pennsylvania
JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan
ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania
ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio
RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont
ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah
CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts
FRED E. BERQUIST, Acting Staff Director
JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk
WILLIAM H. MOORE, Economist
To the Members of Congress:
As has been stated in previous issues of Economic Indicators, from the time the Joint Committee on the Economic Report was established its members realized that
one of its basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture
of current economic trends and developments.
Fortunately, the Joint Committee finds that Economic
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Other Members of Congress have also expressed an
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Accordingly, the Joint Committee has, since last July,
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Comments or suggestions with respect to possible
improvements in this presentation will always be
welcome.
u ss:
-
Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report.
Letter o£ Transmitted
Hon. JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Chairman,
Joint Committee on the Economic Report,
United States Congress, Washington, D. C.
DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the
Joint Committee on the Economic Report in your plans to make Economic Indicators
available to the Congress as a whole and to the general public.
In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has
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improvement and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services.
We have realized, of course, that this material has a potential usefulness not only to
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Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly
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whom we regularly consult.
We believe the Joint Committee will perform a service of real value by giving wide
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Sincerely yours,
j££<>*x^y^^^
0
Vice Chairman.
Contents
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
The Nation's Economic Budget
Page
1
PRICES
Consumers' Prices
Wholesale Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
Stock Prices
2
3
4
5
EMPLOYMENT
Labor Force
Employment in Business and Government
Average Weekly Hours
Work Stoppages
6
7
8
9
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production
Production of Selected Durable Manufactures
Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures
Weekly Production—Selected Indicators
New Construction
New Housing Starts
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
New Corporate Security Issues
Inventories and Sales
Merchandise Exports and Imports
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
PURCHASING POWER
National Income
Corporate Profits
Personal Income
Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving
Per Capita Income
Average Hourly Earnings
Average Weekly Earnings
Farm Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Consumer Credit
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
Bank Loans and Investments
Money Supply
Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
IV
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
30
31
32
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
A general decline in economic activity during the 1st quarter resulted in about $6 billion (annual rate)
decline in gross national product from the level of the 4th quarter. Consumer expenditures and business
investment shared in the decline.
1948 , 4 t h Quarter
TOTAL
(Gross National
EXCESS OF
EXPENDITURES (-), RECEIPTS ( + )
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
Product)
CONSUMERS
•Transfer payments
CONSUMER
SAVING
BUSINESS
ZG. 8
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
I
INTERNATIONAL
EXCESS OF
RECEIPTS
GOVERNMENT
(Federal, state and local)
56.4-^
CASH
DEFICIT
*"•— Transfer payments-^
1949,
TOTAL
1st
Quarter
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
(Gross National Product)
$&88&&8
sSSSoQOooc
CONSUMERS
Transfer payments -
;iiiij;!!jiiiiijiji;!;iii;ijii!iii!:ij;ji£^
Tj?y^ss-'$i^^
'£;.'::W:':z.y%%%zj,j>.tf,^
CONSUMER
SAVING
'78.o
BUSINESS
EXCESS OF.
INVESTMENT
INTERNATIONAL
EXCESS OF
RECEIPTS
GOVERNMENT
(Federal, state and local)
57. 3 2/
56.3
£/ TRANSFER PAYMENTS ARE INCLUDED IN RECEIPTS OR E X P E N D I T U R E S OF THE SEPARATE ACCOUNTS BUT NOT IN THE TOTAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT.
SOURCE: SEE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JANUARY 1949, APPENDIX A , AND Jj ABOVE.
CASH
SURPLUS
PRICES
CONSUMERS' PRICES
Consumers' prices rose slightly in March, thus reversing the trend of the previous 5 months. The
rise in food prices accounted for roost of the increase.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
180
160
160
120
120
100
1941
1940
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1949
1948
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
[1935-39=100]
Period
All items
1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average _ _
_ _
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average _ _ _
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: March
___
April
May
_
June
Julv
September
October. _
November
December
1949: January
February _
March
_
__
__ _
__ _
_
99.4
100.2
105. 2
116. 5
123. 6
125. 5
128. 4
139. 3
159. 2
171. 2
166. 9
169. 3
170. 5
171. 7
173. 7
174. 5
174. 5
173. 6
172. 2
171. 4
170. 9
169. 0
169. 5
Food
95. 2
96. 6
105. 5
123. 9
138. 0
136. 1
139. 1
159. 6
193. 8
210. 2
202. 3
207. 9
210. 9
214. 1
216. 8
216 6
215. 2
211. 5
207. 5
205. 0
204. 8
199. 7
201. 6
NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities.
Source: Department of Labor.
Apparel
100. 5
101. 7
106. 3
124. 2
129. 7
138. 8
145. 9
160. 2
185. 8
198. 0
196. 3
196. 4
197. 5
196. 9
197. 1
199. 7
201. 0
201. 6
201. 4
200. 4
196. 5
195. 1
193. 9
Rent
104. 3
104. 6
106.2
108. 5
108. 0
108. 2
108. 3
108. 6
111. 2
117.4
116.3
116. 3
116. 7
117.0
117.3
117. 7
118. 5
118. 7
118. 8
119. 5
119. 7
119. 9
120. 1
Fuel, electricity, and
refrigeration
House furnishings
99.0
99. 7
102.2
105. 4
107. 7
109. 8
110. 3
112.4
121. 1
133. 9
130.3
130. 7
131. 8
132. 6
134. 8
136. 8
137. 3
137. 8
137. 9
137.8
138.2
138. 8
138. 9
101.3
100. 5
107.3
122.2
125. 6
136.4
145. 8
159.2
184.4
195.8
194.9
194.7
193. 6
194. 8
195. 9
196. 3
198. 1
198. 8
198.7
198. 6
196. 5
195. 6
193. 8
Miscellaneous
100.7
101. 1
104.0
110.9
115. 8
121.3
124. 1
128.8
139. 9
149.9
146.2
147.8
147.5
147.5
150.8
152.4
152.7
153.7
153.9
154.0
154. 1
154. 1
154. 4
WHOLESALE PRICES
Wholesale prices declined during April, primarily because of the fall in industrial prices. Farm
and food prices showed little change during the month.
PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE
220
220
120
100
1942
SOURCE:
1944
1943
1945
1948
DEPARTMENT OF L A B O R .
[1926=100]
All commodities
Period
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1946 monthly average
June _ _1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: March
April __ _
May
June_ _ _ _ _ _
July
August
_
September
October
November
December
1949: January
February
March
Week ended:
Apr. 5
12
__ .. .
_ __
__
___
_ _
__ _ _
87 3
98. 8
121 1
112. 9
152. 1
165.0
161. 4
162. 8
163. 9
166. 2
168 7
169. 5
168. 7
165. 2
164. 0
162. 3
160. 6"
158 1
158. 4
Farm products
82 4
105. 9
148. 9
140. 1
181. 2
188. 3
186. 0
186. 7
189. 1
196. 0
195. 2
191.0
189. 9
183. 5
180. 8
177. 3
172. 5
168. 3
171. 3
Foods
82. 7
99. 6
130. 7
112. 9
168. 7
179. 1
173. 8
176. 7
177. 4
181. 4
188. 3
189. 5
186. 9
178. 2
174. 3
170. 2
165. 8
161. 5
162. 9
Other than
farm products and foods
89. 0
95. 5
109. 5
105. 6
135. 2
150. 7
147. 7
148. 7
149. 1
149. 5
151. 1
153. 1
153. 3
153. 1
153. 5
153. 0
152. 9
151. 4
150. 8
164. 7
171. 5
149. 7
158. 0
164. 2
149. 4
171. 1
157. 6
163. 4
148. 4
171. 1
156. 9
19
162. 4
147. 9
169, 4
26 __ _ _ _
156. 1
161. 8
147. 1
155.2
168.3
May 3
NOTE.—The weekly index presented here is a revised index which permits direct comparison with the
monthly index. It is not comparable with the old weekly index which does not permit such a comparison.
Source: Department of Labor.
PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Neither prices received nor prices paid by farmers showed much change from March 15 to April 15.
PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 19(0-14 AVERAGE
350
350
MONTHLY AVERAGE
PRICES RECEIVED
300
300
250
250
PRICES PAID
(INCL. INTEREST,TAXES)
200
200
150
150
100
PARITY R A T I O *
50
I
1939
40
41
42
43
44
45
I
I
M
I
I
I
I
I I
I I I I I
1947
1948
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.
1949
Prices paid by
Prices
(includ- Parity ratio 3
received 1 farmers
ing interest2
by farmers
and taxes)
95
124
159
192
195
202
233
278
287
124
132
150
162
169
172
193
231
249
1948: March
April. _„
May
June.
July
August
September
October
November.
December
283
291
289
295
301
293
290
277
271
268
247
249
250
251
251
251
250
249
247
248
1949: January
February
March
April
268
258
261
260
248
245
246
246
1
i August 1909-July 1914=100.
100.
Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, ancl taxes,
Source: Department of Agriculture,
2
1910-14=
3
J F M A M J
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Period
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
M M !
F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
46
77
94
106
119
115
117
121
120
115
115
117
116
118
120
117
116
111
110
108
108
105
106
106
STOCK PRICES
During April, industrial and utilities' stock prices registered further slight gains.
PERCENT
PERCENT OF 1935 - 39 AVERAGE
OF 1935-39
AVERAGE
175
175
125
100
1939
40
41
SOURCE •. S T A N D A R D
42
AND
43
POOR S
44
45
46
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
CORPORATION.
A
S
O
N
COUNCIL
D
J F M A M J
OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[1935-39 = 100]
Combined
index l
Period
1939 monthly average
_»
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average.. - _
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average.
1948 monthly average
1948: March .
. _>
April
Mav-June
'
July
August
September __ _ _
October
November
December
1949: January
February
March
April
J.O, J
_
-
»
- -
94. 2
80. 0
69.4
91. 9
99. 8
121. 5
139. 9
123.0
124.4
116.4
124. 6
130.2
135. 1
131.9
127. 1
125.7
127. 8
120. 4
119. 4
121. 0
117.2
118. 0
118. 5
Industrials
94. 8
80. 4
71.3
94. 1
101. 7
123. 3
143. 4
128. 0
130. 6
121.8
130.8
136.9
142. 7
138.9
133. 5
131. 7
134. 3
126. 4
125. 5
127. 3
122. 7
123. 7
124, 2
P^ailroads
74. 7
70. 6
66. 1
88. 7
101.0
136. 9
143. 0
105. 3
114. 8
105. 2
115.2
122.6
125. 6
124. 7
119. 7
120.4
120. 9
108. 8
105. 8
105. 9
99.6
97. 4
97. 1
Utilities
98. 6
81 0
61. 3
82. 1
89. 9
106. 1
120 2
102. 9
96. 3
93. 0
96.2
99. 2
100. 6
99.5
97 3
97.3
97. 4
94:2
92. 9
94. 2
94. 4
95. 3
96. 1
1
Combined index prior to June 23, 1948, was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials,
20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads,
and 31 utilities.
Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.
EMPLOYMENT
LABOR FORCE
Unemployment dropped slightly in April for the second straight month. Nonagricultural employment
declined and agricultural employment increased less than seasonally.
M I L L I O N S OF PERSONS
MILLIONS OF PERSONS
70
70
UNEMPLOYMENT
60
40
CIVILIAN
—
EMPLOYMENT
30
NONAGRICULTURAL
_
UNEMPLOYMENT—MAGNIFIED SCALE
E
_
-
1946
1947
4
f-^^-___^^
^•jv>xjy;\Yi^\^^^^^
ww$$£i--£^
1944
?
1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1
1948
MONTHLY A V E R A G E
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE : DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
[Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over]
Period
Total labor
force, including
armed
forces
Civilian employment
Total
In nonagricultural
industries
In agriculture
Armed
forces
Unemployment
1941 monthly average___
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average...
1948 monthly average..-
57,
65,
65,
60,
61,
62,
380
890
140
820
608
748
50, 350
53, 960
52, 820
55, 250
58, 027
59, 378
41, 250
45, 010
44, 240
46, 930
49, 761
51, 405
9, 100
8, 950
8,580
8, 320
8, 266
7,973
1,470
11, 260
11, 280
3, 300
1,440
1, 307
5,560
670
1,040
2,270
2, 141
2,064
1948: March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November _.
December
61, 005
61, 760
61, 660
64, 740
65,135
64, 511
63, 578
63, 166
63, 138
62, 828
57, 329
58, 330
58, 660
61,296
61,615
61, 245
60, 312
60, 134
59, 893
59, 434
50, 482
50, 883
50, 800
51, 899
52, 452
52, 801
51, 590
51,506
51, 932
52, 059
6,847
7,448
7,861
9,396
9, 163
8,444
8,723
8. 627
7,961
7,375
1,236
1,236
1,238
1,261
1,293
1,325
1,366
1,391
1,414
1,453
2,440
2, 193
1,761
2, 184
2,227
1,941
1,899
1,642
1,831
1,941
1949: January
February _ _
March,
April
61,
61,
62,
62,
57,
57,
57,
57,
50,
50,
50,
49,
6,763
6, 993
7,393
7,820
1,468
1, 508
1, 491
1,492
2,664
3, 221
3, 167
3,016
546
896
305
337
8
6
—
1939
10
414
168
647
819
651
174
254
999
NOTE.-—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
0
EMPLOYMENT IN BUSINESS AND GOVERNMENT
Manufacturing employment, particularly in durable goods industries, declined again in March.
Employment in other major industry groups changed slightly.
MILLIONS OF WAGE
AND S A L A R Y WORKERS
MILLIONS OF WAGE
AND S A L A R Y W O R K E R S
12
12
A
10
NONDURABLE
MANUFACTURING'
FINANCE AND SERVICE
GOVERNMENT
TRANSPORTATION AND
PUBLIC UTILITIES
CONTRACT C O N S T R U C T I O N -
V
/
^"""-MINING'
I
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
j
1946
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
1947
SOURCE:
Deportment
1948
'
1949
o f Laboi
[Thousands of wage and salary workers J
Durable
manufacturing
Period
1939
1943
1946
1947
1948
monthly
monthly
monthly
monthly
monthly
average _ _ _ _
average
average
average
average.
__
1948: February
March
AprilMay
June_
July
August _
September
October
November
December..
1949: January 2 2
February
March 2 ,
1
_ „ _ _
_ _
_ _
__ _
_ __ _
-
__
_
_
_
_ _
_
_ -
. _ __
__
___
_ _ _
Nondurable
manufacturing
Trade
Finance and Government
(Federal,
service
State, local)
Transportation and
public
utilities
Contract
construction
Mining
4, 357
10, 297
7, 180
8, 0,55
8, 214
5, 720
7,084
7,335
7,846
8,063
6,
7,
8,
9,
9,
705
322
820
450
746
4,
5,
6,
6,
6,
610
187
016
278
400
3,987
6, 049
5, 607
5, 450
5, 658
2,912
3, 619
4,023
4, 059
4, 065
1, 150
1,567
1,661
1,921
2,063
845
917
852
911
925
8, 167
8,258
8, 164
8, 114
8, 122
8, 165
8, 188
8,294
8, 318
8,303
8, 222
8,016
8,011
7, 786
7, 778
7,993
8,007
8,253
8, 403
8, 279
8, 158
8, 061
9,
9,
9,
9,
9,
9,
9,
9,
9,
10,
10,
520
598
576
617
670
646
660
733
889
034
381
6, 420
6.426
6,472
6, 454
6, 389
6,399
6,383
6, 379
6, 364
6, 364
6, 346
5,492
5, 546
5, 577
5, 624
5, 607
5, 604
5, 650
5, 801
5,789
5, 714
5, 994
4,019
4,032
3,974
4,042
4, 105
4, 136
4, 139
4,092
4, 091
4,066
4, 066
1, 731
1,805
1,933
2,052
2, 173
2,219
2,253
2,239
2,206
2, 162
2,079
914
924
817
935
950
922
952
948
941
938
939
8,005
7, 891
7, 762
7, 885
7, 865
7,787
9, 625
9, 513
9,529
6, 257
6, 266
6,331
5, 761
5, 759
5, 762
3,977
3, 957
3, 938
1,906
1,824
1,824
924
922
915
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending
nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-ernployed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this
table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 6) which include
proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and
which are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
2
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS
The overage workweek in manufacturing industries fell to a postwar low of 38.9 hours in March, as further
cutbacks were made in overtime.
HOUR S PER WEEK
HOURS PER WEEK
RETAIL TRADE
ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
50
50
MONTHLY
MONTHLY A V E R A G E
45
45
40
/\
—i
—*^~~\—*^r
—\
r— *
40
~"
J
35
30
25
.
\
42
44
25
_
i i i i i t i i i
.40
46
1 1 l i 1l 1l I 1 11
48
1947
1 1 1 l 11 I 1 1 l l
1 1111111111
1948
1949
0
1
1
40
1
1
42
1
1
44
1 1 1111 1 1 111 1 11 11 1 111 11
I I
1
46
48
1947
1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1948
1949
BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
50
50
\
45
/x.
/ ^
/
40
35
45
v
s
\ j ,.
ifr ^v*
1
\l\^
30
40
\
35
11
25
'™T7. , , , ,
40
42
44
46
48
0
1947
1948
^ —*.
/^-
^~"
>/]
^
•S
30
25
0
^
35
30
0
AVERAGE
_
____^--_______
4O
1949
1 1 1 111 11111
i i i i i i i i i
42
44
46
48
1947
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
1 i
1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1948
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Period
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average.
„.
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average .
1947 monthly average 2
1948 monthly average *
1948: February _ . .
_.
March
April
May__
June
July
August
__
-_
September
October
_
„
._ _
November
December 2
1949: January 2 2
._
. . .. .
February
_ _
2
March
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
8
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1 1 1 1
1949
[Hours per week, selected industries]
1
2
3
1 1 1 1 1 i 1
All manufacturing
industries
Retail trade
37. 7
40. 6
45. 2
43. 4
40. 4
40. 3
40. 1
40. 2
40. 4
40. 1
39. 9
40. 2
39.8
40. 1
39. 8
40. 0
39. 8
40. 0
39. 4
39. 4
38 9
Data prior to 1948 not exactly comparable with later data.
Preliminary estimate.
Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
Source: Department of Labor.
43.0
42. 5
40. 3
40. 3
40. 5
40.2
40. 1
40. 0
39. 8
39. 8
39. 9
40. 3
40.8
41.0
40.2
39.7
39. 5
40. 2
40. 0
40.0
Bituminous
coal mining
27. 1
31. 1
43.4
42.3
41. 6
40.6
37. 7
38. 7
40. 6
3
27. 0
40.3
39.9
34.2
39.4
37. 9
38.6
37. 1
38. 5
39. 3
38.0
Building
construction l
32. 6
34. 8
39. 6
39.0
38. 1
37.6
37. 3
36. 4
36. 9
36. 7
37.0
37. 9
37.8
37.8
37. 6
37.3
36. 4
37. 8
37. 0
36.4
WORK STOPPAGES
The rise in man-days lost in March was caused chiefly by the coal miners1 "two-week holiday". Other minor
disputes also contributed to the increase.
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE
I5
15
1939
1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 194
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
1947
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
"COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
Man-days
idle
(thousands)
Period
average
average
average
average
average.
average
average
average l
average
1948: February _
March
_ __
April
May _
June
July
August
September
October
November,
December
1 484
1 921
_
.
1949: January 1
February
March l _
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.
_ _
0 3
3
.1
727
.1
1 125
3
9
2
2
Man-days idle
as percent of
estimated available working
time
349
169
667
883
842
913
1
1
N
1949
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
1939 monthly
1941 monthly
1942 monthly
1943 monthly
1944 monthly
1945 monthly
1946 monthly
1947 monthly
1948 monthly
O
1948
6 440
7 410
4 080
2 220
2 670
2 100
2, 540
2 060
1 910
713
800
650
3 600
2
5
1. 4
.4
4
1
.8
1 0
.6
.3
.4
.3
.3
.3
.3
.1
.1
.1
.5
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Industrial production was down about 3% in March as a result of lower output of nondurable manufactures
and curtailed mining activities. Preliminary April data indicate declines in both durables and nondurables and
some recovery in mining.
250 -
250
200 -
200
150 -
150
SOURCE: BOARD OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE F E D E R A L RESERVE SYSTEM
[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Points in total index,
1935-39 average for total =100
Indexes, 1935-39=100
Period
1935-39 monthly average.
1943 monthlv average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthlv average
1947 monthly average.
1948 monthly average
1948- March
April
__ __
May
June
July
August
September _
October
November
December _ _ _ _
1949* January
February
March * __
April *
Preliminary estimate.
Manufactures
Total
industrial
Nondura- Minerals
production Total Durable
ble goods
goods
_
-
Manufactures
Durable
goods
Nondura- Minerals
ble goods
100
239
203
170
187
192
100
258
214
177
194
198
100
360
274
192
220
225
100
176
166
165
172
177
100
132
137
134
149
155
38
136
104
73
83
85
47
83
78
77
81
83
15
20
21
21
23
24
191
188
192
192
186
191
192
195
195
192
200
195
197
198
192
197
199
202
201
199
229
217
221
222
219
223
225
231
229
231-
177
177
178
179
169
177
178
179
178
173
142
147
162
159
153
159
156
158
161
156
87
82
84
84
83
84
85
87
87
87
83
83
83
84
79
82
83
84
83
81
22
22
25
24
23
24
24
24
25
24
191
189
184
179
198
196
193
186
227
226
223
216
175
173
168
161
149
148
133
143
86
86
84
82
82
81
80
75
23
22
20
22
-
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE
MANUFACTURES
Iron and steel output reached a new all-time high in March. Lumber production also increased but
machinery production dropped sharply.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
IRON AND STEEL
LUMBER AND PRODUCTS
250
MONTHLY AVERAGE
MONTHLY AVERAGE
150
100 1 i i I I i I i i i
40
42 44- 46 48
40
1949
42 44 46 48
MACHINERY
NONFERROUS METALS AND PRODUCTS
SEASONALLY
ADJUSTED
MONTHLY
AVERAGE
300
250
200
I 0 * 1 * 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
40 42
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
44 46 48
1947
1948
100 1
I I t I I I I I
40 42
1949
44 46
48
SOURCE: B O A R D OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE F E D E R A L R E S E R V E S Y S T E M .
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
1939 monthly
1940 monthly
1941 monthly
1942 monthly
1943 monthlv
1944 monthly
1945 monthly
1946 monthly
1947 monthly
1948 monthly
average
average
average
average
average
average
average
average
average
average
_
1Q48* February
March
April
June
_
July
August _
September
October
November
December
1
_ _
__
_ _ _ _ _ _
__
__
__
_
May
1949: January 1
Februarv
March l _
__
_
___
__
__
_
Preliminary estimate.
_
_ _
Nonferrous
metals and
products
Lumber and
products
Machinery
114
147
186
199
208
206
183
150
195
208
106
116
134
134
129
125
109
131
143
145
104
136
221
340
443
439
343
240
276
277
113
139
191
214
267
259
204
157
187
193
203
207
177
208
208
201
207
214
221
223
222
150
151
145
142
140
142
148
143
147
145
143
284
283
275
273
277
269
271
273
277
277
275
199
201
200
196
194
185
186
192
192
187
184
228
232
234
129
123
128
268
262
251
183
186
187
Iron and
steel
Period
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE
MANUFACTURES
D
roduction of textiles and products, chiefly wool and rayon, decreased about 10% in Marchj industrial
chemicals also declined.
PERCEf IT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS
PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS
300
300
200
200
j~^
-^p~•N
100
0
100
i I i i' i i i i i
40
42
44
46
1
1 1 1 I I 1 1 It
48
.1
II ! 1 1 1 ! ! I ! 1
1 1
1 l'l I 1 1 1 ! 1 ! 1
1948.
1947
0
s
A/
J^
^x^1
i i i i j 1 i t i
40
1949
K»
42
44
46
1 ! 1 I1 1 1 1 1 11
48
MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS
1947
SEASONALLY
1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1
1948
1949
CHEMICAL PRODUCTS
MONTHLY JL
AVERAGE j\
ADJUSTED
300
300
""*
i..
X
• •*—*> •*- •
200
200
0
1 1 1 II
400
400
100
^
s~i i i i i t i i i
40 42
44
46
/
100
1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 I
1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 I ! 1
1947
1948
1949
48
0
1
1
1
I I I
1
I I
40 42 44 46 48
1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1947
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
II
1 1 1 1 1 1 II
1948
1949
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Period
Textiles and
products
Manufactured food
products
Chemical
products
1935—39 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average .
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average _
100
153
146
162
163
169
100
185
235
173
193
218
100
145
151
150
157
159
100
384
284
236
251
254
1948: February
March
April
May
June
July .
August
September .
October
November _
December _ _
179
175
174
176
174
154
166
168
167
164
156
215
211
213
220
221
217
222
207
217
227
230
160
158
157
159
163
160
154
163
161
159
158
252
250
249
249
256
251
259
257
255
257
257
1949: January ]
February
March 1
160
157
142
228
222
220
159
161
162
257
250
242
_ __
_
1
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
12
Petroleum
and coal
products
1 1 1
WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORS
Steel production in April dropped just below the all-time peak rate reached in March while motor vehicles
reached the highest rate since 1937.
MILLIONS OF TONS
BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS
3
7.0
STEEL
ELECTRIC POWER
1949
1949
'1947
I
F
M
I
A
M
l
I
J
A
I
S
I
I
I
0
N
F
D
MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS
THOUSANDS
3.0
160
M
A
i
M
|
J
|
J
I
A
S
O
N
A
S
0
N
120
SOURCES: AMERICAN
IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, WARD'S
Steel
(thousands of
net tons)
Period
Weekly average:
1947
1948
Week ended:
1948- Apr
-
3
10
17
May
24
1
1949- Apr
2
9
- - __ __
8
,
_
May
30
7
_
90, 860
100, 670
5, 037
5,033
5, 087
5,027
5, 042
5 087
355
413
_____
1, 592
1, 521
1, 285
1,442
1, 561
1, 640
1, 306
1,952
2, 335
2, 122
99, 901
97, 311
99. 567
101, 661
97, 409
79, 785
-
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
5 378
5, 360
5, 343
5, 326
5, 304
1, 932
1,880
1, 908
1, 893
1,922
113, 784
126, 165
126, 521
134, 706
129, 457
121, 845
_ _ _ _ _
_-
_--
-- -
Cars and
trucks
(number)
2,008
1,906
16
23
Electric power, Bituminous
coal
by utilities
(thousands of
(millions of
kilowatt-hours) short tons) l
4, 821
5, 300
_ _ _ _ _ _ _
_
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
1, 637
1, 700
-
_ _-
AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS.
840
821
829
814
797
794
D
1
Daily average for week.
Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Automotive Reports.
1Q
NEW CONSTRUCTION
Construction activity continued its seasonal increase in April, reaching a total ot $1.4 billion. Public
construction increased more than private, bringing the two categories back into more normal
relationship.
MILLIONS
OF DOLLARS
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2,OOO
2,000
1,500
—.
\I I
1939
1942
\
1,000
\
1944
1946
1947
M
1948
A M
J
J
O N D J
F M A
1948
M
J
J
A
S
1949
^INCLUDES PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
C O U N C I L OF E C O N O M I C ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars]
Private construction
Total new
construction
Period
1939 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: Februarv
March
April
May__
j -- June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1949: January
February
March 2
ADH12
1
2
_ _
_ _
__
_ -
_ _. _ _
-
_ _
_ _
. _ _
526
1, 118
345
871
1, 194
1, 565
1,049
1, 226
1,378
1, 572
1,754
, 874
,934
, 901
,814
, 646
,447
1,269
1, 148
1,248
1,368
Total
private
Residential
(nonfarm)
317
251
152
688
932
1,214
875
1,001
1,099
1, 222
1,348
1,423
1,454
1,427
1,355
1, 256
1, 129
977
880
928
987
Includes public residential construction.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.
176
110
45
265
438
602
410
490
550
625
682
707
720
707
670
615
547
450
375
400
440
Other
141
141
107
422
493
612
465
511
549
597
666
716
734
720
685
641
582
527
505
528
547
Federal,
State, and
local 1
208
867
193
184
262
351
174
225
279
350
406
451
480
474
459
390
318
292
268
320
381
NEW HOUSING STARTS
About 62,000 new permanent dwelling units were started in March. While this is 12,000 less than
March 1948, it represents a normal seasonal increase from the lower level at which the year started.
THOUSANDS OF UNITS
125
THOUSANDS OF UNITS
125
50
25
M
A
M
SOURCE'- DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
New nonfarm units started
Month
1947
January
February _ _
_
March
April _ _ _ _ _ _
__
_
____
May
June
July
August
September. _
October- _
November _
December.
_ _ _
_
Total _ _
__
__„
_ _
_
__ _
Monthly average
1948
39, 300
42, 800
56, 000
67, 100
72, 900
77, 200
81, 100
86, 300
93, 800
94, 000
79, 700
58, 800
53, 500
50, 100
76, 400
99, 500
100, 300
97, 800
95, 000
86, 600
82, 200
73, 400
63, 600
52, 900
849, 000
931, 300
70,750
77, 600
1949
1
50, 000
1
46, 000
1
62, 000
1
Preliminary.
Source: Department of Labor.
15
EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT
AND EQUIPMENT
SEC-Commerce survey made in January shows that nonagricultural business expenditures for plant and equipment in
2nd quarter of 1949 are expected to be slightly lower than in same quarter of 1948. It also shows that substantial
declines in all fields except electric and gas utilities and mining are anticipated in 2nd half of this year.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25
ANN UAL TOTALS
TRANSPORTATION AND
ELECTRIC AND GAS
I
FUTILITIES
10
1939
*
1941
NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL
1945
VARIATION.
SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE C O M M I S S I O N AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
[Millions of dollars, annual rates', not adjusted for seasonal]
Period
Total i
Manufacturing
Transportation
Mining
Railroad
Other
Electric and Commercial
miscelgas utilities and
laneous 2
280
480
280
1939
1,850
1,930
380
5,200
340
1941
2,490
710
560
680
3,400
8, 190
320
1,480
630
550
1945
_
_
3,210
440
6,630
3,300
1,040
570
660
1946
560
5,910
12, 040
800
1,900
910
4,430
1947. . _ _
690
7,460
16, 180
700
2,680
1,320
5,390
1948 3
800
8,340
19, 230
3, 130
650
1,450
5,010
1949 _
__
7,240
820
18, 310
1,320
720
1947: First quarter
3,600
640
5,800
600
12, 640
880
1,800
Second quarter. _
.
4, 120
920
7,400
640
15, 760
2,000
800
Third quarter
4, 640
920
720
7,480
16, 560
Fourth quarter _ _
,
2,480
760
5,360
1,200
840
9,160
19, 760
2,000
1,080
720
1948: First quarter _ _
4,960
7,200
720
16, 680
1,240
760
Second quarter
_ _
2,560
800
5,360
8,560
19, 280
1,320
Third quarter
680
2,760
8,360
5,440
800
19, 320
3,400
680
Fourth quarter
_ ..
1, 640
5, 760
880
9,280
21, 640
1949: First quarter 3 3 _
2,880
640
1,560
5, 160
720
7,760
18, 720
Second quarter
_
3, 160
720
1, 640
5,440
760
7,440
19, 120
3
3,240
620
1, 300
Second half
.
__
4,720
6,880
900
17, 700
1
Excludes agriculture.
2
Includes trade, service, finance, and communication.
3
Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business.
NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to
current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other
data.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted).
NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES
Total proceeds from new corporate security issues fell heavily in the 1st quarter reflecting a decline in both
fixed and working capital financing.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S
3.0
3.O
QUARTERLY AVERAGE
2.5
i
11
1939
SOURCE:
1943
SECURITIES
1946
1947
1948
COUNCIL OF E C O N O M I C A D V I S E R S
AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION.
[Millions of dollars]
Proposed uses of net proceeds
Estimated
net proceeds
Period
New money
Total
1939 quarterly
1943 quarterly
1945 quarterly
1946 quarterly
1947 quarterly
1948 quarterly
average
average
average
average
average 2
average
1947: Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter ..
Second quarter.Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter 2
1
2
_
_ _ _ _
__
_
Working
capital
529
287
1,475
1,689
1,617
1,604
81
77
270
820
1, 148
1, 392
43
35
159
529
852
1,035
39
42
111
291
296
357
448
210
1, 206
869
469
212
1, 374
2,311
884
2,000
692
1,654
192
347
490
310
1,614
1,663
1,267
1,873
1,400
1,353
1,045
1,767
845
1,080
764
1,451
555
274
281
316
214
309
221
105
1,057
851
699
152
206
Includes small amount for other purposes.
Preliminary (estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source; Securities and Exchange Commission.
Plant and
equipment
Retirement
of debt and
stock *
INVENTORIES AND SALES
The book value of manufacturers' inventories showed the first sizeable decrease since the war,
as sales rose seasonally. Department store sales on a seasonally adjusted basis declined again,
though less rapidly than in January or February.
BILL ONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
WHOLESALE
RETAIL
20
20
MONTHLY
sEASONALLY ADJUSTED
AVERAGE
INVEI^ T()RIES
y _\
j?°
/r
1 0
1 0
L ES
i i i i i i i i i
40
42
'^y\t
''
i Ii li1lliii
44 46 48
I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1t I 1i 1 1 1 1
1947
1948
L
i i i | | i | | i
0
40
1949
BILL IONS OF DOLLARS
42
44
46
1 1 1 II ! M I 1 1
1 1 M 1 I 1 1 1
1947
1948
48
1 I 1
1949
400
MONTHLY AVERAGE
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
INVEf JT
30
DRIES
\
). ......I
y
1
/y- ^LE:sv
300
.--vr^-s^
Jy—Vr- w \
,v X
//INVEt^ TC)RIES
,/7x
/
s/
/
200
V
^~
L IS
iiiiiiiii
0
40
42
44
46
,M l . l l l , , ,
48
{&*
1 00
l . . I l l . . 1 II
1947
! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1
1948
1
0
1
40
1949
1 1 1 1 1
42
44
I
46
1
48
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II
1I I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1947
1948
50URCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
Wholesale 1
Period
Inventories
8
Retail 2
Sales
4
Inventories
3
Manufacturing *
Sales
4
1939
1941
1943
1945
1946
1947
1948
1948- March .
April
Mav«June
July.
August
September _
October c . .
November
T)p,r,fvrr\bfir
_ .
.
_ _
_ . _
6
1949 1 January 6 6
February
March 6 _
3,200
4, 151
3,577
4,216
5,823
7,545
8,315
7,869
7,777
7,801
7,953
7,930
8, 100
8,243
8,400
8,507
8,315
8,527
8,567
8,453
5,502
7,620
7, 350
7,502
11,049
12, 953
14, 556
14, 040
13, 907
13, 951
14, 065
14, 080
14, 145
14, 531
14, 576
14, 779
14, 556
14, 085
13, 934
14, 049
3,504
4,624
5,310
6,387
8, 399
9,860
10, 784
10, 658
10, 891
10, 620
10, 862
10, 857
10, 893
10, 968
10, 894
10, 771
11, 062
10, 615
10, 588
10, 608
1949
Inventories
3
Sales
Department stores
4
Inventories
Sales
1935-39=100, seasonally
adjusted 6
11,516
17, 024
19, 897
17, 924
23, 435
28, 020
31, 766
29, 064
29, 161
29, 437
29, 727
30, 236
30, 429
30, 710
30, 848
31,225
31, 766
31, 998
32, 065
31, 700
5, 112
8, 172
12, 603
12, 371
12, 020
15, 671
17, 593
18, 117
17, 229
16, 777
17, 871
16, 403
18, 169
18, 781
18, 807
17, 987
18, 195
16, 859
16, 427
17, 700
102
131
155
166
213
255
292
312
308
297
285
275
268
275
283
303
305
285
286
293
106
133
168
207
264
286
302
284
306
311
312
316
312
312
306
287
310
287
274
270
5
Book value, end of period.
Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for
Monthly average for year and total
month
and retail book value of inventories, end of period.
1
for month.
Preliminary estimate.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Not adjusted for seasonal variation.
Adjusted for seasonal variation.
3
4
2, 505
3,650
4,330
4,777
6, 138
7,304
7,867
7,726
7,652
7,389
7,766
7,796
8,161
8,286
8,376
8,242
8, 196
7, 163
6,802
7,483
1 1 11 1 1 11 t 11
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Millions of dollars
1
1
1 1 1 M 1 II
DEPARTMENT STORES
40
1 0
II
PERCE IT OF 1935-1939 AVERAGE
MANUFACTURING
20
•"" >
—.
INVEf T( JRIES
jjj^*-*^....-^
0
y
SX*
ixT"-***
....,
7
•' s
MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
Both exports and imports increased about 12 percent in March, exceeding average 1948 levels.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,600
1600
1,400 -
-
1,200
1,400
1,200
1,000 -
- 1,000
800
800
- 600
600 -
400
400
~ 200
200 -
J
1943
1936-38
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J A
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
1949
*
RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, AND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AREAS.
** RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY
[Millions of dollars]
Period
Exports 1
Imports *
Excess of
exports
1936-38 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
247
1 080
877
849
1 278
1, 051
207
282
346
410
478
589
40
798
531
439
801
461
1948: January
February _
March—
April
May~.
June
July,
August
—
September
October
November
December. .
1,092
1, 086
1, 138
1, 120
1, 102
1, 014
1,020
986
926
1, 020
819
1, 284
545
582
666
528
549
616
558
598
558
597
550
721
546
504
473
592
553
398
461
387
368
423
269
563
1 086
1 029
1 152
589
568
632
497
461
520
1949: Januarv _ „_
February
March
_______
-__
_
1
1
Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas.
Recorded general merchandise imports.
Souroeg: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy.
19
PURCHASING POWER
NATIONAL INCOME
National income declined in the 1st quarter of 1949 but was still above the rates for the first three
quarters of 1948.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
ANNUAL TOTALS
CORPORATE PROFITS AND
INVENTORY VALUATION
ADJUSTMENT
200
150
100.
1939
1944
1946
1947-
1948
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (except as noted).
[Billions of dollars]
Total
national
income
Period
1939
1944
1945
1946
1947__
1948 l
_
___
72. 5
182.4
181.7
179.3
202. 5
224.9
_ _
_
Corporate profits and inventory
valuation adjustment
Compensation of
employees
Proprietors'
and rental
income
Net interest
47. 8
121. 1
122. 9
117. 3
127. 5
139. 4
14.7
34. 1
36.0
41.8
46.0
50. 9
4.2
3. 1
3.0
3.4
4.3
4. 9
Total
5.8
24.0
19. 8
16. 8
24. 7
29.8
Profits
before
taxes
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
6.5
24.3
20.4
21. 8
29.8
32.8
-0.7
-.3
-.6
-5.0
-5. 1
-3.0
29. 1
32.4
30.5
32. 1
34.0
2
( ) 34. 4
29. 6
-4.8
-4. 9
-5.3
-2.5
-3.9
-.4
4-2.0
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: Third quarter
Fourth quarter _
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter,
Fourth quarter *
1949: First Quarter 2 _ _
1
2
_
_____
200.6
212.8
213. 9
222. 3
228. 2
2
( ) 235.3
229.0
127. 6
132.2
134.0
136.3
142.4
144. 7
142. 5
44.4
48.6
49. 9
51.6
50. 6
51.4
49.6
Preliminary estimates.
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).
4. 4
4.5
4. 7
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.3
24. 3
27. 5
25.3
29.6
30.2
2
( ) 34.0
31. 6
CORPORATE PROFITS
Corporate profits dropped in the 1st quarter of 1949, reflecting a decline
in sales and prices.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
PROFITS BEFORE TAXES"
DIVIDEND PAYMENTSXX#:*
PROFITS
> AFTER
TAXES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED).
[Billions of dollars]
Corporate
profits
before taxes
Period
1929. .
1939
1943
1946
1947 .
1948
_—
. . . _.
9.8
6. 5
24.5
21.8
29.8
32.2
Corporate
tax
liability
1.4
1.5
14.2
9.0
11.7
12.5
Corporate profits after taxes
Total
8.4
5.0
10.4
12.8
18.1
19.7
Dividend
payments
5.8
3.8
4.5
5.6
6.9
7.8
Undistributed
profits
2.6
1.2
5.9
7.2
11.2
11.9
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: Third quarter
Fourth quarter
-
•__ __
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter 1. _ _ _ _. _
1949: First quarter l
29. 1
32.4
11.4
12.7
17.7
19.7
6.9
7.1
10.8
12.6
30. 5
32. 1
34.0
34. 4
29. 6
11. 8
12.5
13.3
13. 6
11,8
18. 7
19.6
20. 8
20. 8
17.8
7.4
7.4
7.7
8. 3
8.7
11.3
12.2
13. 1
12. 5
9. 1
1
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data.
NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment, See p. 20 for profits before
taxes and inventory valuation adjustment.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).
21
PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income dropped in February as a result of decreased employment and lower farm income.
March data indicate that income from salaries and wages dropped again.
Preliminary
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
250
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
2 00
PROPRIETORS AND RENTAL INCOME
I
50
SAL ARIES, WAGES, ETC.
I
939
J F . M
946 1947 1948
944
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
I
J
I
J
!
A
1 ! I
S
O
N
D
TERMINAL LEAVE BOND CASHING STARTED IN SEPTEMBER.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[Billions of dollars]
Total
personal
income
Period
1939
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
_« _ .
. _
_ __
72. 6
164. 5
170.3
178. 1
195. 2
213. 6
Salaries, wages,
and other
labor income
Proprietors'
and rental
income
Dividends
and interest
45.7
116. 1
116.8
111. 4
121.9
134. 3
14. 7
34. 1
36.0
41.8
46. 0
50. 9
9.2
10.6
11.4
13.5
15. 6
17.2
Social security
and GI payments
3.0
3. 6
6.2
11.4
11.7
11. 1
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: January
February. _ _
March
April
May
June__ _ _ _ _
July
August-September
October _
November
December
1949; January..
February
.__ _
March l
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
9.9.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1
_
_
_ _
__
__ _ _
208. 8
206. 4
205.7
208. 6
209. 2
214. 4
214. 8
216. 7
217. 3
218. 5
219. 9
221. 0
219. 2
216.3
214. 3
129. 3
128. 8
128. 5
128. 8
131.0
133. 4
135. 5
138.0
138. 8
139. 6
140. 1
139. 8
138.4
136. 8
134. 5
51.8
49. 6
48. 4
51. 2
50.4
53. 0
51.2
50. 3
50.4
50. 7
51.4
52. 1
51.4
49.7
49.0
Preliminary estimates. Data became available after chart was prepared.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
16. 5
16. 6
16. 6
16.7
16.8
16. 9
17.0
17.3
17.5
17.8
18. 1
18.4
18.3
18.3
18.3
11.2
11.4
12.2
11.9
11.0
11. 1
11. 1
11. 1
10. 6
10. 4
10. 3
10.7
11. 1
11.5
12.5
CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING
In the 1st quarter of 1949, consumer spending declined for the first time since the war period.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
ANNUAL RATES,SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
200
150
* PERSONAL II
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
[Billions of dollars]
Disposable
personal
income l
Period
1939
1940.
1941_
1942
1943_._
1944...
1945
1946...
1947
1948
__
_
._
.
_
._
.
70.2
75. 7
92.0
116.2
131. 6
145.6
149. 4
159.2
173.6
192. 6
Less: Personal
consumption
expenditures
Equals: Personal saving
67.5
72. 1
82.3
90. 8
101. 6
111.4
122. 8
147.4
164.8
177. 7
2.7
3. 7
9.8
25. 4
30.0
34.2
26.6
11.8
8.8
14. 9
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: Third quarter
Fourth quarter. _
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter 2 _ _
1
2
_____
____
_
175.0
180.9
165.6
171. 1
9.4
9.7
183. 9
190. 2
196.2
199.4
172. 5
177. 3
180. 1
181.0
11.4
12. 9
16. 1
18.4
198.0
178.0
20.0
Income less taxes.
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).
PER CAPITA INCOME'
A decrease in prices during the 1st quarter of 1949 more than offset the decrease in per capita
income. This resulted in a small increase in the real purchasing power of consumers.
400
1939
**
1940
1941
1942
1943 1944 1945
1946 1947
2
1948
2
3
1948
3
1947
2
3
1949
CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE CONSUMERS PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE 1948 *IOO.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT
OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR (EXCEPT AS NOTED).
Per capita disposable personal
income *
Period
Current
dollars
$536
574
691
863
964
1,054
1,070
1, 127
1,205
1,313
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944_
1945
1946
1947
1948
1948 dollars 8
$923
981
, 125
,256
,306
,391
,374
,351
,294
1,313
Annual rates, seasonally
adjusted
•
1947: Third quarter
Fourth quarter.
1948: First quarter _
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter 4 _
1
2
.
„
_.
_
___
_ _
_
_ _
__
$1,212
1,246
1,263
1,286
1,318
1,351
1,336
$1, 291
1,291
1,289
1, 291
1,295
1,342
1,347
Consumers'
price index8
1948 = 100
58. 1
58.5
61.4
68.7
73.8
75.8
77.9
83.4
93. 1
100.0
Not adjusted
for seasonal
variation
93.9
96.5
98.0
99. 6
101.8
100. 7
99.2
Income less taxes.
Current dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base 1948=100.
The consumers' price index has been roughly adjusted to take account of the understatement from
December 1941-February 1947. This adjustment is in line with the report of the Mitchell Committee. The
unadjusted
index will be found on page 2.
4
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor (except as noted).
3
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS
Average hourly earnings in manufacturing industries continued to drop in March, and were about 1 cent below
the postwar peak reached in January.
DOLL ARS PER HOUR
.
DOLLARS PER HOUR
RETAIL TRADE
ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
2.00
MONTHLY
1.50
1. 00
2.00
AVERAGE
1.50
1948 (DO LLARS*
— **
<2r
•Mi
1948 C )0 _LARS*
i
^^
X^
.50
,50
nTTTTTTTTI rTTTTfTmT H I M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 iTTTtTT
40
42
44 46
48
1947
1948
0
^
i' i i i i i i i n 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1
40
1949
42 44
46
1948/f )0
Vl
rf~
2.00
•«•
X**"1
x"»**^.IC^A
1948
1949
^CZ******"
,-^J
~^ L ~r
-*
1.50
S^
CURF EhJT DOLLARS
.
1.00
-S
.50
.50
0 ~TTTTTTTT~P
40
X
1947
1948 D OL LARS*
J CUF !R ENT DOLLARS
1. 00
48
BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
2.OO
1.50
*•
REINT DOLLARS
Cuf
^S
0
!••• m
p
1.00
CURRE NT DOLLARS
42
44 46
1 1 1 1 1
48
1 I11 1
i 1I11
1947
11 Ml
1 1 M 1 ! ! 1 ! ! 1
1948
0
1 I 1 1
40
1949
1 | ) |
42 44
46
j
1 1 ! 1 1 11 1 ! 1 1
48
INN
1947
MM!
Mill
1948
M
II
1949
CUFi
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOUR(;E: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
[Selected industries]
Manufacturing
Period
1939
1941
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
Current
dollars
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average 3
monthly average
1948* February
March
-«
April
May
June
July
_
August
September _ _
October
November _ _
December ^
1949" January 3 3
February
March 3
._ _ _
;
_ __
_._
_
__ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _ _
1
2
3
4
1948
dollars 2
Current
dollars
1948
dollars 2
$0. 633
.729
1.019
1.023
1.084
1. 221
1.327
$1. 090
1. 187
1.381
1.313
1.230
1.311
1.327
$0. 536
.568
.724
.773
.878
.991
1.067
$0, 923
.925
.981
.992
1.053
1.064
1.067
1.287
1.289
1.292
1.301
1.316
1. 332
1.349
1.362
1. 366
1.372
1.376
1.316
1.322
1. 306
1.306
1. 312
1.312
1. 324
1.337
1.347
1.364
1. 375
1.050
1.044
1.055
1.064
1.070
1.077
1.080
1.086
1.080
1.084
1.072
1.074
1.071
1.067
1.068
1.067
1. 061
1.060
1.066
1.065
1.078
1. 071
1. 381
1. 377
1. 372
1. 384
1. 395
1. 386
1. 110
1. 104
1. 112
1. 119
Data prior to 1948 not exactly comparable with later data.
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1948= 100.
Preliminary estimate.
Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
Digitized forSource:
FRASER
Department of Labor.
Bituminous coal mining
Retail trade
Current
dollars
$0. 886
.993
1. 186
1.240
1.401
1. 633
1.897
4
1.826
1.842
1. 821
1. 841
1.850
1. 936
1.967
1.970
1.959
1. 951
1.960
1. 949
1. 964
1948
dollars 2
Building construction l
Current
dollars
1948
dollars 2
$1. 525
1. 617
1.607
1.592
1. 680
1. 754
1.897
$0. 932
1.010
1.319
1. 379
1.478
1.681
1.848
$1. 604
1. 645
1.787
1.770
1.772
1. 806
1.848
1.867
1.889
1. 841
1.848
1. 844
1.907
1. 930
1.933
1. 932
1.939
1. 958
1.791
1.786
1.804
1.815
1.836
1.862
1.874
1.895
1.892
1.906
1.915
1.831
1.832
1.824
1.822
1. 830
1.834
1.839
1.860
1.866
1.895
1.913
1. 953
1. 990
1. 920
1. 934
1.924
1. 959
4
See note 3 to table on page 24.
25
AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS
I
The combination of shorter hours and lower hourly earnings reduced average weekly earnings in
manufacturing industries in March to $ 5 3 . 3 7 - $1.64 below the all-time peak of last December.
DOL _ A R S PER WEEK
DOLLARS PER WEEK
^
60
/
40
RETAIL TRADE
MANUFACTURING
60
\I948 C0 LLARS**
/
%.-^~^~*-~^
-''' r*
*m\m~**r~~
«•»•»
1948 D 0 .LARS**
CURREN" " CJOLLARS
/
\^^
40
+*--++*
^•^^CURREN' • [)OLLARS
20
20
p*
•
0
, , , , , , , , ,
40
42
44
46
Miii1i ii ii
48
1 M
1947
M
1 1 M
I M
1 1
1948
1 1 1 M
1 1 1
0
I
i
40
1949
i i
i
42
44
i i i |
46
100
1948 D
J
.LARS**
01
-i.,;^vy"v
,-'V\
J
/CURREN
0
1 1 1 1 1
1948
1949
80
1948 D 01.LARS**
60
^f^^***"*^
/^/
^--^
^^^"^
'
/
""X
/ CURREN"
r )OLLARS
«•
t
I)OLLARS
40
40
20
I 1 1 1 1
MONTHLY AVERAGE
*«
f 7 y-
60
1 1 1 1 1
1947
BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
100
80
Mill
48
s
S
20
i i i i i i i i i
40
42
44
46
1 M
48
1 1 1M
1 II
1 1 M
1947
1 1 1 1 1 1 t
1948
0
II 1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1
* EARNINGS DATA DISTORTED DURING THESE MONTHS BECAUSE OF WORK STOPPAGES OR VACATIONS.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
i i i | i t i i i
40
1949
42
* * C URRENT DOLLAF s DIVIDED
ABLE.
44
46
M
I 1 1 1 , M I.
48
1 1 II 1 1 I 1 M
1947
1
1 I M
1948
1 i M
1 1 1
1949
er CONSUMERS' PRICE NDEX ON BASE OF 1948=100
[Selected industries]
Manufacturing
Period
Current
dollars
1948
dollars 2
Retail trade
Current
dollars
1948
dollars 2
Bituminous coal mining
Current
dollars
$21. 17
$36. 44
$23. 88
$41. 07
$23, 86
1939 monthly average
30.86
21.94
35.73
48. 18
29. 58
1941 monthly average. _
36.02
51.27
62.44
26. 58
46.08
1944 monthly average
36.34
52. 25
28. 31
56.98
44. 39
1945 monthly average __
39.03
58.03
32. 55
43.74
52. 45
1946 monthly average
_
66.86
39.
39
36.
67
49.25
52.
90
1947 monthly average 3
39.83
72.06
39. 83
53. 15
53. 15
1948 monthly average __ __
70. 54
38.33
39. 19
51.75
52.91
1948: February _
__
74.84
39.89
53.41
38.89
52.07
March
4
49. 5339.71
39.27
52.37
51.79
April
_____ _
40.00
74.08
39. 84
52.07
51. 86
iVJ.O,J
Mav
73. 87
40.40
40. 52
52. 69
52.85
June
_ -67. 62
40.58
41.
19
52.95
52.
17
July
41. 19
40. 42
78. 10
53.04
54.05
August
39.73
75. 52
40. 48
53. 17
54. 18
September
76.40
39.76
40. 32
53. 90
54. 65
October
___
39.43
73.52
54.56
54. 23
39. 67
November 3
40.62
75. 79
40.58
54.96
55.03
December
76.84
41. 87
41. 79
54.41
. 54.52
1949* January 3 3
42. 11
75. 65
41. 56
54. 96
54. 25
Februarv
3
53. 37
53. 91
March _ _
_ _ _
1
Data prior to 1948 not exactly comparable with later data.
2
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1948=100. See note 3 to table on page 24.
3
Preliminary estimate.
4
Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
Department of Labor.
Digitized forSource:
FRASER
26
1948
dollars 2
$41. 10
50.26
69. 47
67.07
69. 58
71.81
72.06
72. 13
76. 76
4
50. 08
74.38
73. 65
66. 62
76. 64
74. 11
75.34
73.08
75.71
76.99
76. 65
Building construction 1
Current
dollars
$30. 39
35. 14
52. 18
53.73
56. 24
63.30
68. 85
65. 16
65.87
66.45
67.22
69. 53
70.47
70.91
71.29
70. 59
69.39
72.33
70.96
70. 38
1948
dollars 2
$52. 31
57.23
70. 70
68.97
67.43
67.99
68.85
66.63
67. 56
67. 19
67. 49
69.32
69.43
69.59
69.96
69.62
68. 98
72.26
71. 10
71. 31
FARM INCOME
Cosh farm income increased seasonally in March, and was about equal to that in March 1948.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4
0
I
I
1939
I
40
I
I
41
42
I
43
I
44
I
45
I
46
I
47
I
I
48
I
I
J
I
F
M
I
A
I
M
I
J
I
J
I
A
I
S
I
O
I
N
I
D
I
J
I
F
I
M
I
A
I
M
•1947
I
J
I
J
I
A
I
S
I
O
I
N
I
D
I
J
_ _
I
A
I
M
I
J
I
J
I
A
I
S
I
O
I
N
D
1949
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
Farm income
(millions of
current
dollars) l
Period
ivj.a,j
Mav
I
M
1948
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average _
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: February
__
March
April _ _
__
I
F
_
_ _ _ _
__
_
____
_
_
_
_
_
_
__
_
__
_ _ _
_ __
_ _ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _
June
_
_ _ _ _ _
July
August
_____
September
October
__
_
November
December
_
1949: January 4 4
_ _ _ _
_
February
_
4
March _ _ _ _ _ _
_ __
___
_
_ _ _ _
_
_
_ _ _ _
_
_
723
981
1, 340
], 678
1, 753
1, 857
2, 136
2, 542
2, 609
1, 862
1, 932
2,075
2, 119
2,437
2, 693
2, 722
3, 132
3,714
3, 314
2,740
2,383
1, 783
1, 940
Prices paid by
farmers (incl. Farm income
interest and
(millions of
taxes) 1948
= 1948 dollars) 3
100 2
49. 8
53 0
60. 2
65. 1
67. 9
69. 1
77. 5
92. 8
100. 0
99. 6
99. 2
100. 0
100. 4
100. 8
100. 8
100. 8
100. 4
100. 0
99. 2
99. 6
99. 6
98.4
98. 8
1, 452
1 851
2, 226
2, 578
2, 582
2, 687
2, 756
2, 739
2, 609
1, 869
1, 948
2,075
2, 111
2,418
2, 672
2, 700
3, 120
3,714
3, 341
2,751
2,393
1,812
1, 964
1
2
3
4
Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments.
Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1948 = 100.
Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1948=100.
Preliminary.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
27
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION
EXPENDITURES
The decrease in expenditures for nondurable goods more than accounted for the drop in total consumption
expenditures in the 1st quarter of 1949.
BILLIONS
OF D O L L A R S
BILLIONS
OF DOLLARS
200
200
150
100
^ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS; BASED ON PRELIMINARY DATA.
SOURCE:
DEPARTMENT
OF
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
COMMERCE ( E X C E P T A S N O T E D ) . -
[Billions of dollars]
Personal consumption expenditures
Period
Nondurable
goods
Total
1939
1944
19451946
1947_
1948
67.5
111.4
122.8
147.4
164. 8
177. 7
35.3
67.5
75.4
87.5
96.5
103. 6
Durable
goods
6.7
6.9
8.3
16.2
21.0
22. 7
Services
25.5
37.0
39.2
43.6
47.3
51.4
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: Third quarter
Fourth quarter
._
1948: First quarter
Second quarter.,
Third quarter _ _ _ _ _ _
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter *_ __
1
28
_
-__ __
__
165. 6
171. 1
96.8
100.2
21.1
22.1
47.7
48.8
172. 5
177.3
180. 1
181.0
101.4
103.7
104. 3
105. 1
21.3
22. 8
23. 7
22. 9
49.8
50.8
52. 1
53.0
178.0
102.0
22. 5
53. 5
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).
CONSUMER CREDIT
Consumer credit increased $43 million in March. Some expansion in instalment credit (loan and
automobile sale) was offset in part by small declines in charge accounts and other consumer credit.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2 0
20
I8
1943
1946
M
1947
J
J
A
S
1948
END OF MONTH
1947
END OF YEAR
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL R E S E R V E SYSTEM.
[Millions of dollars]
Total
consumer
credit
outstanding
End of period
1939
1943
1946
1947
1948
_ _ __
-_
_ __ _ _
__---
_ _
1948' February
March
April
May _
June
July
August _
September
October
November
December
1949* January
February
March 2
1
2
2
_ _
_
_
_ __ _
_
Instalment credit
Total
Automobile
sale
credit
Other sale
credit arid
loans
Other
consumer
credit l
7,969
5, 378
10, 191
13, 673
16, 319
4,424
2,001
4,000
6,434
8,600
1, 267
175
544
1, 151
1, 961
3, 157
1,826
3,456
5,283
6, 639
1, 544
1, 498
3, 054
3, 612
3,854
2,001
1,879
3, 137
3, 627
3,865
13, 302
13, 805
14, 059
14,311
14, 669
14, 723
14, 916
15, 231
15, 518
15, 739
16, 319
6, 548
6, 821
7,094
7, 318
7,533
7,738
7,972
8, 190
8,233
8, 322
8,600
1, 254
1, 367
1,468
1, 536
1,602
1,689
1,781
1, 858
1,889
1, 922
1, 961
5, 294
5,454
5,626
5, 782
5,931
6, 049
6, 191
6, 332
6, 344
6,400
6, 639
3,061
3, 275
3,236
3,245
3,352
3, 185
3, 130
3,227
3,457
3, 557
3,854
3, 693
3, 709
3,729
3,748
3,784
3,800
3, 814
3,814
3,828
3, 860
3,865
15, 749
15, 336
15, 379
8,425
8, 340
8,447
1, 965
1, 996
2, 113
6, 460
6,344
6,334
3,457
3, 176
3, 141
3, 867
3,820
3, 791
Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit.
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Charge
accounts
MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS
After o contraction in January and February, bank loans increased in March.
ONS OF D O L L A R S
125 -
125
100 __
-
100
INVESTMENT
U. S. GOVERNMENT
IN
SECURITIES
75 -
50 -
1
25 -
W"
XXx*
1929
END
1939
if -
I
1945
1948
OF YEAR
1949
END OF MONTH
PR EL I Ml NARY £5 TIM A TE
SOURCE: Board of Governors of the Federal R e s e r v e S y s t e m
[Billions of dollars]
TP *-./-! f^t -r^^^^A
ii<ii
a of period
1929
1939
1945_ „
_
1946
1947
_ __
1948
1948: February .
March
ApriL _ _ _
M<*J
Mav
^
June
__
July
August
September
October
November
December
1949: January
February
March l _
_
_
_
_
-__ _
__
_
__
___
_
___
_
- _
Investments
Total
loans and
investments
Bank loans
49. 5
40. 7
124. 0
114, 0
116. 4
114. 3
115. 5
113. 6
114. 3
114. 5
113. 9
114. 8
115. 1
113. 6
114. 1
114. 2
114. 3
114. 4
113. 4
112.4
36. 0
17.2
26. 1
31. 1
38. 1
42. 7
38.7
38.9
38.8
39.4
39.9
40. 1
40.6
41.7
41. 6
42.3
42. 7
42. 4
42. 0
42. 3
Total
_ __
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding,
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
1
13.5
23. 4
97.9
82.9
78.3
71.6
76.9
74.7
75.5
75. 1
74.0
74.6
74.5
71.9
72. 5
71.9
71. 6
72.0
71. 4
70. 1
U.S.
Government
securities
4.8
16. 3
90.6
74.8
69.3
62. 5
67.9
65. 5
66.3
65.9
64.8
65.3
65. 1
62.5
63.3
62.8
62. 5
63.0
62. 2
60. 9
Other
securities
8. 7
7. 1
7.3
8. 1
9.0
9. 1
9.0
9.3
9.2
9.2
9.2
9.3
9.4
9.4
9.2
9.1
9. 1
9. 1
9. 1
9. 2
MONEY SUPPLY
Money supply declined again in March by about $2 billion, chiefly as a result of reduced demand deposits.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS
200
200
TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY
( EXCLUDING U.S. GOV'T. DEPOSITS)
I 50
TIME DEPOSITS
liADJUSTED DEMAND DEPOSITS:
CURRENCY OUTSIDE BANKS *
B
1939
1943
1946
1947
1948
J
F
M
A
M
END OF YEAR
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
"9^7
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE
M
J
J
"
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
1948
END OF MONTH
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
1949
SYSTEM.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Total money
supply
End of period
1929
1939 ..
1941
1943
1945 .
_ .
1946
1947
__ . _
19481948: February
March. .
April
May
June
.
July. . . . . _ - _
August
September
October
November
December
1949: January
February
_ _ __
March 3
_
__
. ...
...
-
_ _ _ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ __ _ _
_
._ _
. ..
-.
_ _
_
54.6
63.3
76.3
112. 3
150. 9
164.0
170. 0
168. 7
167. 1
164.0
165.0
165. 2
165. 7
166.2
166.7
166. 9
168.0
167. 9
168.7
168.0
166. 1
164.0
Currency
outside
banks
3. 6
6.4
9.6
18.8
26. 5
26.7
26. 5
25. 7
25.7
25.6
25.4
25.4
25. 6
25.5
25. 6
25.7
25.7
25. 9
25. 7
25. 2
25. 1
25.0
Adjusted
demand
deposits l
22. 8
29. 8
39. 0
60. 8
75. 9
83.3
87. 1
85. 8
84.6
81.5
82.7
82.8
82. 7
83.4
83.8
83. 9
85.0
85.0
85. 8
85.3
83. 3
81.0
Time
deposits 2
28. 2
27. 1
27. 7
32.7
48. 5
54.0
56. 4
57.3
56. 8
56.9
56. 9
57.0
57.4
57.3
57. 3
57. 3
57. 3
57. 0
57. 3
57.6
57. 7
58.0
1
Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection.
2
Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System.
8
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
31
FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM
AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC
The cash surplus of about $3 billion during the first quarter, which includes the seasonally high
March tax receipts, was less than half as great as during the same quarter of 1948.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
I6
16
1947
1946
1949
1948
EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS
LJ
1:1 EXCESS OF CA'SH
1946
1947
1948
CALENDAR
PREL.
1949
EST.
YEARS
C O U N C I L OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT.
[Millions of dollars]
Calendar year total:
1946
1947
1948
_
- _
Federal cash
payments to
the public 1
41, 426
44, 279
44, 920
41, 372
38, 584
36, 954
+ 54
+ 5,695
+ 7,967
12,
9,
9,
9,
632
462
702
630
12, 244
12, 008
8,449
8, 671
+ 388
— 2 547
+ 1 252
+ 959
___
_ _ _
14,
9,
10,
9,
345
847
220
869
9, 163
10, 628
10, 257
8 536
+ 5 182
— 781
— 37
+ 1 331
_ _ _ _ _
15,
10,
10,
9,
037
238
085
560
8 637
9,033
8, 798
10, 486
+ 6 400
+ 1 205
+ 1 287
— 925
_
_
_
_
_
-
Quarterly total, not adjusted for seasonal:
1946: First quarter
_ _
. _ _ _ - -_Second quarter
Third quarter
_ __
_ _ _ _
__
Fourth quarter
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948- First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter.
_ __
_
_
_
__
___
_
_
Excess of receipts ( + ) or
payments (— )
Federal cash
receipts from
the public 1
Calendar years
_ _ _ _
2
1949: First Quarter _ _ _ _ _ _
_ __
9,931
13, 122
+ 3. 191
Payments of refunds of Government receipts are now reported as deductions from total receipts; previously,
they were reported as expenditures.
2
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.,—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget.
1
o
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