Full text of Economic Indicators : March 1986
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99th Congress, 2d Session Economic Indicators MARCH 1986 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1986 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) DAVID R. OBEY, Wisconsin, Chairman JAMES ABDNOR, South Dakota, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana) PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland) AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California) JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York) FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) DAN LUNGREN (California) OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine) BOBBI FIEDLER (California) SENATE WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho) MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia) ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York) PETE WILSON (California) LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland) SCOTT LILLY, Executive Director ROBERT J. TOSTERUD, Deputy Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS BERYL W. SPRINKEL, Chairman THOMAS G. MOORE, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res, 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.50 a single copy ($3.13 foreign), or by subscription at $27.00 per year ($33.75 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to revised estimates, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 4.3 percent (annual rate) or $42.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 1985. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 0.7 percent and the implicit price deflator rose 3.3 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 4,400 4 000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 4,400 SEASO MAILY ADJUSTED ANN UAL RATES i— — — — ~ 4000 — 3,600 IN 1982 DOLLARS — _ 3 200 » i-«s . i-*... — «- — •" — 2800 x-"~1 GNP ^--*1 / ~" ^s^ — •^~- — ~~ S^~' ^f^"*** ~_^>»-*ir_- , ^— ^^ 3200 — •~ 2,800 "Y ~ 2,400 3,600 .*•"* __ —- GNP ^ INC!JRRENT DOILA RS - 2,400 , / — — ^ ^ 2000 - \ 1,600 1 1 1977 1 2,000 1 1 1 1978 1 1979 1 1 1 1 1 1980 1 1 1 1 1 1982 1981 i ii 1 1 1 1983 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1 1 1 1,600 1985 1984 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Govern ment purch ases of gooc s and services Exports ind imports of goods ind services Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment 2,249.7 2,508.2 2,732.0 3,052.6 3,166.0 3,401.6 3,774.7 3,988.5 1,403.5 1,566.8 1,732.6 1,915.1 2,050.7 2,229.3 2,423.0 2,582.3 416.8 454.8 437.0 515.5 447.3 501.9 674.0 669.3 4.1 18.8 32.1 33.9 26.3 -5.3 -59.2 -78.5 227.5 291.2 351.0 382.8 361.9 354.1 384.6 369.9 223.4 272.5 318.9 348.9 335.6 359.4 443.8 448.4 425.2 467.8 530.3 588.1 641.7 675.7 736.8 815.4 161.8 178.0 208.1 242.2 272.7 284.8 312.9 355.4 108.9 121.9 142.7 167.5 193.8 215.7 237.0 261.9 52.9 56.1 65.4 74.8 78.9 69.2 76.0 93.6 263.4 289.9 322.2 345.9 369.0 390.9 423.9 460.0 2,221.0 2,495.2 2,740.3 3,028.6 3,190.5 3,408.0 3,707.6 3,981.1 III TV 3,179.4 3,212.5 2,065.6 2,117.0 452.2 409.6 14.5 359.9 335.9 345.4 321.9 647.1 671.8 275.3 293.2 197.3 205.4 78.0 87.7 371.8 378.7 3,188.4 3,272.4 1983: I II UI IV 3,268.7 3,365.1 3,437.5 3,535.0 2,146.0 2,210.1 2,254.9 2,306.3 425.0 483.7 521.2 577.6 -19.7 -27.4 344.6 345.0 358.0 368.8 316.2 347.5 377.6 396.2 669.3 673.8 681.1 678.6 287.1 287.0 286.0 279.2 209.4 214.5 215.8 222.9 77.8 72.5 70.2 56.2 382.2 386.9 395.1 399.4 3,311.4 3,370.6 3,440.3 3,509.5 1984: 3,676.5 3,757.5 3,812.2 3,852.5 2,358.6 2,414.4 2,439.0 2,480.1 658.8 673.3 687.9 676.2 -37.4 -65.3 -61.9 -72.2 375.4 382.3 391.4 389.5 412.8 447.6 453.3 461.7 696.5 735.1 747.3 768.4 285.6 314.8 318.5 332.9 228.3 235.8 236.2 247.5 57.3 79.0 82.2 85.4 410.9 420.3 428.8 435.5 3,584.4 3,688.7 3,743.9 3,813.5 3,917.5 3,960.6 4,016.9 4,059.3 2,525.0 2,563.3 2,606.1 2,634.8 657.6 672.8 666.1 680.7 -42.3 -70.3 -87.8 -113.4 379.6 369.2 363.2 367.8 421.9 439.5 451.0 481.2 777.2 794.8 832.5 857.2 334.4 337.8 364.8 384.7 249.5 256.0 269.9 272.1 84.9 81.7 95.0 112.6 442.8 457.1 467.7 472.5 3,899.0 3,945.0 4,016.7 4,063.6 Period 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 ' 1982: I II m IV 1985: I n Ill IV Gross national product Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Federal Net exports 14.1 28.4 -2.6 Exports Imports Total National defense Nondefense and GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS [Billions of 1982 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Personal Period 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 T Gross national product consumption expenditures Exj)0rts of go ods a nd service Gross privat e dome stic investrnent Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed Change in business inventories Govern nent purcb ases of gooc s and sen ices Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total Total National defense Nondefense State and local Final sales 3,115.2 3,192.4 3,187.1 3,248.8 3,166.0 3,277.7 3,492.0 3,570.0 1,961.0 2,004.4 2,000.4 2,024.2 2,050.7 2,145.9 2,239.9 2,313.0 362.1 389.4 379.2 395.2 366.7 360.1 430.3 472.0 178.0 170.8 137.0 126.5 105.1 148.7 168.3 171.2 36.8 15.0 -6.9 23.9 -24.5 -5.5 62.7 5.7 -26.8 3.6 57.0 49.4 26.3 -19.4 -85.0 -108.4 312.6 356.8 388.9 392.7 361.9 349.4 370.9 359.9 339.4 353.2 332.0 343.4 335.6 368.8 455.9 468.3 604.1 609.1 620.5 629.7 641.7 647.8 675.9 716.4 233.7 236.2 246.9 259.6 272.7 275.5 292.5 322.6 160.7 164.3 171.2 180.3 193.6 207.3 220.3 235.7 73.0 71.9 75.7 79.3 78.9 68.3 72.3 86.9 370.4 373.0 373.6 370.1 369.0 372.2 383.3 393.8 3,078.4 3,177.4 3,194.0 3,225.0 3,190.5 3,283.1 3,429.3 3,564.3 1982: III IV 3,154.5 3,159.3 2,051.8 2,078.7 358.0 352.3 100.1 115.8 -9.4 -59.3 11.7 11.7 359.5 336.0 347.8 324.3 642.5 660.1 273.8 289.5 197.0 201.4 76.9 88.2 368.6 370.6 3,164.0 3,218.6 1983: I II Ill IV 3,190.6 3,259.3 3,303.4 3,357.2 2,096.4 2,137.2 2,161.8 2,188.1 337.5 346.9 363.4 392.9 127.2 145.8 161.6 160.4 -42.2 -3.7 1.4 22.5 -15.0 -36.2 -48.9 342.8 342.4 353.1 359.1 320.3 357.4 389.3 408.0 649.1 648.2 651.5 642.2 279.2 277.6 277.4 267.9 203.8 206.9 206.5 211.8 75.4 70.6 70.9 56.1 369.9 370.6 374.1 374.3 3,232.8 3,263.0 3,302.1 3,334.6 1984: I II Ill IV 3,449.4 3,492.6 3,510.4 3,515.6 2,210.9 2,243.0 166.6 170.0 170.8 166.0 83.6 66.0 64.9 36.1 -60.6 -90.4 -88.7 -100.2 362.7 366.6 376.9 377.3 423.3 457.0 465.6 477.5 650.1 677.1 682.4 693.9 271.4 294.8 2P6.7 307.3 214.1 219.6 219.6 227.9 57.3 75.2 2,243.4 2,262.0 398.8 426.8 437.6 457.8 79.5 378.6 382.4 385.7 386.6 3,365.7 3,426.6 3,445.5 3,479.5 I II.... Ill IV '. 3,547.8 3,557.4 3,584.1 3,590.8 2,288.6 2,303.5 2,329.6 2,330.4 457.2 470.9 473.7 486.5 166.7 169.6 173.1 175.5 15.8 15.1 -1.8 -6.3 -71.8 -101.1 -119.8 -140.8 368.7 358.2 353.5 359.2 440.5 459.3 473.3 500.0 691.4 699.4 729.2 745.5 304.3 226.7 231.5 243.3 241.3 77.6 74.3 87.9 107.7 387.1 393.6 398.1 396.5 3,532.0 3,542.3 3,585.8 3,597.1 1985: 22.6 305.9 331.1 349.0 77.1 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1982—100; quarterly data arc seasonally adjusted] Personal c onsumption Gross private domestic i nvestment expert ditures Period 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 r national product Exports an 1 imports of goods an i services Gove rnment pure lases of goo ds and ser vices Federal Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Services dential Residential fixed Exports Imports National defense Nondefense State and local 72.2 78.6 85.7 94.0 100.0 103.8 108.1 111.7 71.6 78.2 86.6 94.6 100.0 103.9 108.2 111.6 76.9 82.1 89.2 95.7 100.0 102.1 103.9 104.7 71.9 80.0 89.4 96.9 100.0 102.0 105.4 107.7 69.8 75.6 83.9 92.6 100.0 105.7 111.5 116.8 71.5 77.8 85.1 93.4 100.0 98.9 99.4 100.9 72.6 81.4 89.4 96.6 100.0 102.2 106.4 108.4 72.8 81.6 90.2 97.5 100.0 101.4 103.7 102.8 65.8 77.1 96.0 101.6 100.0 97.5 97.4 95.8 69.2 75.4 84.3 93.3 100.0 103.4 107.0 110.2 67.8 74.2 83.4 92.9 100.0 104.0 107.6 111.1 72.4 78.0 86.4 94.3 100.0 101.3 105.1 107.7 71.1 77.7 86.2 93.4 100.0 105.0 110.6 116.8 1982: III IV 100.8 101.7 100.7 101.8 100.4 100.7 100.5 101.0 100.9 102.7 100.8 100.7 100.4 99.1 100.1 100.0 99.3 99.3 100.5 101.3 100.2 102.0 101.5 99.5 100.9 102.2 1983: I II Ill IV 102.4 103.2 104.1 105.3 102.4 103.4 104.3 105.4 101.3 101.6 102.4 103.1 100.7 101.9 102.4 103.1 103.9 105.0 106.2 107.8 100.1 98.9 98.3 98.4 102.0 100.3 103.2 103.1 100.5 100.8 101.4 102.7 98.7 97.2 97.0 97.1 102.8 103.4 103.1 104.2 102.7 103.7 104.5 105.3 103.1 102.6 99.0 100.1 103.3 104.4 105.6 106.7 1984: I II Ill IV 106.6 107.6 108.6 109.6 106.7 107.6 108.7 109.6 103.4 103.9 104.1 104.5 104.8 105.5 106.6 109.2 110.8 112.5 113.5 98.8 99.2 99.6 100.1 103.6 106.5 107.6 107.9 103.5 104.3 103.8 103.2 97.5 98.0 97.3 96.7 105.2 106.8 107.3 108.3 106.6 107.4 107.6 108.6 99.9 105.0 106.7 107.5 108.5 109.9 111.2 112.7 1985: I II Ill IV ' 110.4 111.3 112.1 113.0 110.3 111.3 111.9 113.1 104.9 104.8 104.6 106.7 107.5 107.6 109.1 114.7 116.1 100.5 100.7 101.0 101.2 107.7 107.9 108.2 109.7 102.9 103.1 102.7 102.4 95.8 95.7 95.3 96.2 109.9 110.4 110.2 110.2 110.1 110.6 110.9 112.8 109.4 110.0 108.1 104.5 114.4 116.1 117.5 119.2 104.2 104.4 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 117.4 118.7 CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gr ss national pr duct Period Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars 1978 13.0 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 " 1982: HI IV 1983: I II HI IV 1984: I II UI IV 1985: I II Ill IV. 11.5 8.9 11.7 3.7 7.4 11.0 5.7 25 5.3 2.5 -.2 1.9 -2.5 3.5 6.5 r 2.2 -3.2 .6 4.0 8.9 5.5 6.7 11.4 5.1 2.1 .6 3.7 1.1 3.0 .7 4.2 7.2 12.3 8.9 11.8 17.0 9.1 6.0 4.3 6.9 4.5 5.8 4.3 Implicit price deflator 7.3 8.9 9.0 9.7 6.4 3.8 4.1 3.3 5.8 3.6 2.8 3.2 3.5 4.7 5.0 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.0 3.3 2.9 3.3 NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. Personal consumption e tpenditures Chain price index Fixedweighted price index (1982 weights) 6.9 8.0 9.1 9.5 6.4 3.9 4.2 3.5 5.7 3.8 3.2 11.6 11.6 6.2 8.5 9.3 9.3 6.2 4.0 4.3 3.6 5.5 4.0 3.2 3.8 4.0 4.3 5.1 4.3 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.6 2.7 3.9 2.8 4.7 2.9 4.8 6.1 3.8 3.9 3.5 3.6 2.5 2.9 Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars Implicit price deflator 4.1 2.2 io.e — .2 10.5 7.1 8.7 8.7 6.6 8.5 10.3 5.6 12.5 8.4 1.2 1.3 4.6 4.4 3.3 2.1 5.3 3.4 8.0 4.7 5.0 4.2 5.9 .1 3.4 4.8 9.4 9.4 9.8 4.1 6.9 7.4 6.2 2.6 4.6 .1 6.8 4.5 7.3 9.2 10.7 9.2 5.7 3.9 4.1 3.1 6.2 4.4 2.4 4.0 3.5 4.3 5.0 3.4 4.2 3.4 2.6 3.7 2.2 4.4 Chain price index Fixedweighted price index (1982 weights) 7.2 9.2 10.9 9.2 5.7 4.0 4.2 3.4 6.3 4.8 2.2 4.2 3.7 4.4 5.1 3.7 4.1 3.6 2.7 3.7 2.4 4.5 7.0 8.8 10.5 9.0 5.6 4.0 4.3 3.4 6.3 4.8 2.3 4.2 3.8 4.4 5.2 3.8 4.2 3.6 2.7 3.8 2.6 4.6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Current-dollar cos and profit per unit o output (do liars) » Gross c omestic produ ct of nonfin ancial corporate business (billions c f dollars) Tote! Period Current dollars 1982 dollars Corp irate profits with inventory valuation a nd capital consuniption adjus tments Capital consumption and profit 2 ances with capital consump- Indirect business taxes 3 Compenemployees Net interest Total Profits tax Profits after Output per hour of all employees (1982 dollars) Compensation 17.358 17.221 17.096 17.194 17.318 17.940 18.323 18.299 8.219 9.002 9.939 10.861 11.699 12.179 22.593 12.989 17.375 17.402 17.699 17.899 18.046 18.113 18.321 18.416 18.308 18.260 18.266 18.255 18.382 11.804 11.928 12.069 12.138 12.191 12.315 12.448 12.552 12.645 12.733 12.839 12.950 13.040 of all employees (dollars) adjustment 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 '. 1982: 1983: m IV I 1984: IV I 1985: n m n m IV I n m IV" 1 1,274.1 1,417.4 1,540.8 1,738.4 1,782.2 1,915.9 2,153.1 2,281.9 1,789.8 1,840.4 1,807.9 1,837.2 1,782.2 1,866.9 2,039.3 2,097.1 0.712 .770 .852 .946 1.000 1.026 1.056 1.088 0.073 .082 .095 .109 .125 .124 .119 .121 0.064 .066 .077 .090 .094 .098 .099 .102 0.473 .523 .581 .632 .676 .679 .687 .710 0.020 .024 .031 .037 .043 .039 .042 .041 0.082 .076 .068 .078 .063 .086 .108 .115 0.037 .038 .037 .035 .026 .031 .035 .029 0.044 .038 .031 1,789.0 1,779.4 1,820.0 1,884.9 1,946.5 2,012.2 2,088.0 2,147.0 2,172.5 2,205.2 2,237.0 2,265.8 2,301.6 2,323.1 1,777.8 1,760.2 1,793.1 1,842.5 1,891.2 1,940.8 2,005.0 2,043.0 2,048.2 2,061.0 2,077.3 2,087.2 2,106.9 2,117.1 1.006 1.011 1.015 1.023 1.029 1.037 1.041 1.051 1.061 1.070 1.077 1.086 1.092 1.097 .127 .131 .128 .125 .124 .121 .119 .118 .119 .120 .120 .121 .121 .122 .094 .096 .096 .099 .099 .098 .098 .099 .100 .100 .100 .103 .102 .102 .679 .685 .682 .678 .676 .680 .679 .682 .691 .697 .703 .709 .709 .717 .041 .042 .040 .039 .039 .039 .039 .041 .043 .044 .043 .042 .040 .039 .065 .057 .070 .082 .092 .099 .106 .111 .107 .109 .111 .111 .120 .117 .026 .023 .023 .030 .035 .034 .038 .038 .032 .032 .029 .028 .030 .031 .038 .034 .047 .053 .057 .065 .068 .073 .075 .077 .081 .083 .090 .086 Output is measured by gross domestic prod uct of nonfin ncial corpora te business in 1982 dol- lars. 2 This is equal to the deflator for gross dome stic product c f nonfinancia corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. .044 .037 .055 .073 .085 'Indir ect business t ix and nontiLX liability ph s business tr insfer paymer, ts less subsid es. «With inventory va uation and c apital consuniption adjustnnents. Source s: Department of Comm erce (Bureau of Economi z Analysis) a nd Departme nt of Labor (Bureau c f Labor Stati tics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period National income Compensation of emplov- Proprietoi s' income with in -entorv valuation t nd capital consurnption adjust nents Farm 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 r 2,047.3 2,203.5 2,443.5 2,518.4 2,718.3 3,039.3 3,212.8 2,528.4 2,548 2 2,603.6 2,678.9 2,747.4 2,843.5 2,967.7 3,021.1 3,064.2 3,104.4 3,155.3 3,192.2 3,228.0 3,275.9 1982: III IV 1983: I II Ill IV 1984: I II Ill IV 1985: I II Ill IV 1 1,491.4 1,638.2 1,807.4 1,907.0 2,025.9 2,221.3 2,372.5 1,918.4 1,931.1 1,962.4 2,001.5 2,041.8 2,097.6 2,160.9 2,204.8 2,241.2 2,278.5 2,320.4 2,356.9 2,385.2 r 2,427.5 tion adjustment Nonfarm 31.7 20.5 30.7 24.6 Corpora tc profits \vi h inventorv valuation an i capital con.surnption adjus ments Profits w th inventory valuation adjustme H and witho ut capital consn mption adjus :ment Total Total Capital consump- Net interest Inventorv valuation adjustment Profits heiore tax 160.1 160.1 156.1 150.9 178.0 201.6 221.0 5.6 6.6 13.3 13.6 12.8 10.8 13.8 200.1 177.2 188.0 150.0 213.8 273.3 297.0 214.1 194.0 202.3 159.2 195.0 232.3 226.1 237.1 226.5 169.6 205.0 237.6 226.8 -43.2 -43.1 — 24.2 -10.4 -10.0 -5.4 -.6 -14.0 -16.8 -14.4 -9.2 18.8 41.0 70.9 272.3 273.6 300.2 287.4 151.7 159.8 12.0 15.8 154.3 146.1 161.6 150.7 171.6 164.1 -10.0 - 13.4 -7.3 -4.5 266.9 167.2 175.5 182.3 187.1 13.3 14.8 11.9 11.0 173.4 205.9 228.4 247.6 163.7 190.5 207.3 218.7 167.1 199.8 225.4 227.6 -3.4 -9.3 -18.1 -8.9 9.7 15.5 21.0 28.9 268.5 269.4 276.4 280.3 195.9 199.7 204.5 206.3 11.6 11.9 10.0 9.7 268.0 277.8 234.4 271.2 276.2 241.8 226.5 226.3 247.4 247.4 227.7 228.0 -13.0 -5.6 -1.3 -1.6 33.5 36.0 44.8 49.8 286.9 297.6 309.5 307.0 212.9 218.1 225.3 r 227.6 11.0 13.8 14.5 281.7 288.1 309.1 309.1 220.6 220.9 233.2 229.8 220.0 .7 2.2 4.7 '-10.1 61.1 67.2 75.9 '79.4 302.9 292.4 14.3 32.1 21.2 22.9 28.5 18.7 11.8 6.6 20.0 44.4 29.4 27.8 26.6 26.5 22.8 12.2 r 23.3 Rental income of persons with capita! Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) r lo.9 257.2 218.7 228.6 239.8 1 58.3 200.9 248.1 269.1 281.8 r 272.6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Durabl i Period consumption expendi- Total durable goods Motor vehicles and parts 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 r. 1982: III IV 1983: I II Ill IV 1984: I II Ill IV 1985: I II Ill IV r . 1,566.8 1,732.6 1,915.1 2,050.7 2,229.3 2,423.0 2,582.3 2,065.6 2,117.0 2,146.0 2,210.1 2,254.9 2,306.3 2,358.6 219.0 219.3 239.9 252.7 289.6 331.1 361.5 96.9 90.3 100.5 108.9 130.6 153.8 168.4 252.8 263.8 108.3 115.7 268.5 285.3 295.3 309.4 115.9 129.2 134.0 143.1 2,414.4 2,439.0 2,480.1 321.6 330.2 331.1 341.5 150.1 154.1 153.6 157.4 2,525.0 2,563.3 2,606.1 2,634.8 351.5 356.5 376.0 362.0 163.1 165.4 183.0 162.2 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Noil durable g goods Furniture and household equipment 82.1 86.2 92.7 95.7 107.4 119.4 129.0 96.4 99.1 102.1 105.4 109.0 113.0 116.1 118.8 119.3 123.5 125.7 127.6 128.6 134.1 Total Other 40.0 42.8 46.6 48.1 51.7 57.9 64.1 48.1 49.0 50.4 50.7 52.2 53.3 55.4 57.3 58.2 60.6 62.7 63.4 64.4 65.7 durable 613.2 681.4 740.6 771.0 817.0 872.4 912.2 776.7 786.6 792.4 811.7 826.5 837.2 856.6 873.2 876.6 883.1 895.7 910.2 914.5 928.3 Food 317.3 349.1 376.5 398.8 422.0 451.7 474.0 402.7 407.0 413.1 419.0 426.0 430.0 440.0 449.9 457. 1 459.6 465.5 472.1 475.9 482.5 Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil 102.2 109.0 119.9 124.4 135.2 66.1 83.7 92.7 89.1 90.1 90.7 91.8 88.6 89.8 86.5 89.4 92.5 92.1 92.0 91.9 89.1 89.8 89.3 92.9 92 2 93.0 147.4 156.0 125.0 126.5 129.4 135.0 135.5 140.9 144.4 149.1 146.4 149.7 152.8 156.3 155.7 159.4 Other Services Retail sales of new pa ssenger cars (mi iions of un ts) Domestics 127.6 139.5 151.6 158.7 169.6 182.6 190.3 160.4 163.4 163.3 168.3 172.6 174.1 180.2 182.3 184.0 184.1 188.2 188.9 190.7 193.4 734.6 831.9 934.7 1,027.0 1,122.7 1,219.6 1,308.6 1,036.1 1,066.5 1,085.2 1,113.0 1,133.1 1,159.6 1,180.4 1,211.1 1,231.3 1,255.4 1,277.8 1,296.6 1,315.6 1,344.6 8.2 6.6 6.2 5.8 6.8 8.0 8.2 5.6 6.0 6.0 6.9 6.9 7.4 8.1 8.2 7.9 7.6 8.5 8.2 9.4 7.0 Imports 2.3 2.4 2.3 22 2.4 2.4 2.8 22 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.3 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $19.2 billion (annual rate) in February, following a rise of $2.8 billion in January. The changes were affected by special factors involving military pay, cost-of-living adjustments, tax rates and the taxable wage base for social security, and subsidy payments for farmers. Excluding these special factors, personal income rose $13.8 billion in February and $12.4 billion in January. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,800 3,800 3,200 3,200 1,600 1,600 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 800 800 OTHER INCOME 400 400 TRANSFER PAYMENTS U200 200 1978 1979 1980 1982 1981 1983 1986 1985 1984 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 r 1985: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct r Nov r Dec r 1986: Jan r. Feb" Total personal income 1,812.4 2,033.9 2,258.4 2,520.9 2,670.8 2,836.4 3,111.9 3,293.5 3,247.2 3,258.2 3,288.6 3,271.2 3,280.5 3,290.0 3,295.5 3,309.9 3,330.8 3,347.9 3,384.3 3,387.1 3,406.3 Wage and salarj Proprietors ' income 3 Other labor Farm ments 1,119.3 1,252.1 1,372.0 1,510.3 1,586.1 1,675.8 1,834.9 1,960.5 1,916.5 1,930.9 1,940.5 1,946.8 1,958.5 1,959.8 1,969.3 1,981.2 1,991.5 2,003.6 2,022.2 2,028.6 2,038.9 107.7 122.7 138.4 150.3 163.6 179.5 193.4 206.4 200.9 202.2 203.5 204.8 206.1 207.3 208.5 209.5 210.5 211.5 212.4 213.3 214.3 27.0 31.7 20.5 30.7 24.6 14.3 149.2 160.1 160.1 156.1 150.9 178.0 32.1 21.2 32.9 23.8 40.4 14.4 13.8 12.2 11.6 12.9 17.5 21.0 31.4 16.0 18.2 201.6 221.0 213.1 215.2 216.9 218.6 218.8 222.1 224.8 228.9 227.2 226.9 228.7 233.0 236.0 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the^excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. 2 Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workers' injury compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items. 3 With inventor,- valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Nonfarm Rental income of persons 4 Personal dividend income 9.3 5.6 6.6 13.3 13.6 12.8 10.8 13.8 43.0 48.1 52.9 61.3 63.9 68.0 10.9 11.7 12.8 13.9 14.9 15.5 16.2 11.7 16.0 13.9 17.8 18.1 18.2 74.6 78.9 77.9 78.3 78.6 78.7 78.8 78.9 79.1 79.2 79.4 79.9 80.1 80.9 82.3 Personal interest income 182.5 221.4 271.9 335.4 369.7 385.7 442.2 456.3 463.0 463.8 462.7 461.0 457.9 453.3 449.8 448.6 450.1 451.7 452.4 452.9 453.2 Transfer payments 5 244.0 273.1 324.7 368.1 410.6 442.2 454.7 484.5 478.2 479.5 480.9 481.2 480.9 490.0 486.0 488.4 489.8 491.4 492.5 501.5 503.0 4 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance 69.8 81.0 88.6 104.5 112.3 119.8 132.4 149.1 146.2 147.2 147.6 148.1 149.1 149.1 149.7 150.4 151.1 151.9 153.1 157.2 157.8 Nonfarm personal income 6 1,769.3 1,983.1 2,215.8 2,465.6 2,618.7 2,795.3 3,053.3 3,246.1 3,188.0 3,208.2 3,221.9 3,230.5 3,240.5 3,251.9 3,258.1 3,271.2 3,287.5 3,301.0 3,326.9 3,345.0 3,362.0 With capital consumption adjustment. Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor incom and agricultural net interest. 5 6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analvsis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable personal income rose in the fourth quarter of 1985, after a decline in the third quarter. The decline in the third quarter to a large extent reflected the delay and catchup in income tax refunds in the first and second quarters. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 3,000 3,000 6,000 6,000 4,000 4,000 1985 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE , Period Personal income Equals: Disposable personal income Personal tax and nontax Less: Personal outlays l Equals: Personal saving Per c apita disposable personal mcc me Current dollars 1982 dollars Billions of dol ars 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 r. 1,812.4 2,033.9 2,258.4 2,520.9 2,670.8 2,836.4 3,111.9 3,293.5 261.1 304.7 340.5 393.3 409.3 411.1 441.8 492.7 1,551.2 1,729.3 1,917.9 2,127.6 2,261.4 2,425.4 2,670.2 2,800.8 Per capitii personal consulnption expen itures Current dollars 1982 dollars 110.2 118.0 136.8 159.4 153.9 133.2 172.5 129.0 6,968 7,682 8,421 9,243 9,724 10,328 11,263 11,703 9,735 9,829 9,722 9,769 9,725 9,942 10,412 10,483 Q real per capita disposable . percent of disposable personal Population, including Armed Forces abroad (thousands) 2 Per cent Do lars 1,441.1 1,611.3 1,781.1 1,968.1 2,107.5 2,292.2 2,497.7 2,671.8 ercen 6,304 6,960 7,607 8,320 8,818 9,493 10,221 10,790 8,808 8,904 8,783 8,794 8,818 9,138 9,448 9,665 3.8 1.0 — 1.1 .5 -.5 2.2 4.7 .7 7.1 6.8 7.1 7.5 6.8 5.5 6.5 4.6 222,629 225,106 227,754 230,182 232,549 234,829 237,067 239,317 Seas anally adju sted annual rates 1982: HI IV 2,683.6 2,729.2 405.0 411.1 2,278.6 2,318.1 2,122.6 2,174.9 156.0 143.1 9,786 9,929 9,720 9,749 8,871 9,068 8,812 8,904 -0.7 1.2 6.8 6.2 232,851 233,466 1983: 2,752.8 2,805.7 2,852.4 2,934.8 407.4 418.0 404.4 414.4 2,345.5 2,387.7 2,447.9 2,520.4 2,205.2 2,271.3 2,319.0 2,373.3 140.3 116.4 129.0 147.1 10,024 10,182 10,412 10,693 9,793 9,846 9,982 10,145 9,172 9,424 9,591 9,785 8,960 9,114 9,195 9,283 1.8 2.2 5.6 6.7 6.0 4.9 5.3 5.8 233,981 234,509 235,117 235,707 3,033.8 3,083.5 3,144.2 3,186.2 423.6 433.6 447.5 462.4 2,610.2 2,649.9 2,696.7 2,723.8 2,428.7 2,487.4 2,515.2 2,559.4 181.6 162.6 181.5 164.5 11,050 11,193 11,362 11,44,7 10,358 10,399 10,451 10,441 9,985 10,198 10,276 10,423 9,359 9,474 9,452 9,506 8.7 1.6 2.0 -.4 7.0 6.1 6.7 6.0 236,222 236,742 237,349 237,953 3,240.9 3,280.1 3,298.5 3,354.3 501.7 462.4 498.2 508.5 2,739.2 2,817.7 2,800.2 2,845.9 2.608.4 2,650.6 2,697.6 2,730.6 130.9 167.2 102.6 115.2 11,487 11,790 11,687 11,847 10,411 10,595 10,447 10,479 10,588 10,726 10,877 10,969 9,597 9,639 9,723 9,702 -1.1 7.3 -5.5 1.2 4.8 5.9 3.7 4.0 238,469 238,985 239,605 240,207 I II m IV 1984: I n HI IV 1985: I n mr IV .... 1 Indiides persona1 consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In tKe third quarter of 1985, according to revised estimates, gross farm income fell $12.9 billion (annual rate) and net farm income fell $10.8 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 240 240 200 200 160 ••••». S r -^ 1r--— " ^^^^«- -^ f^" 1 160 ^ GRO SS FARM ^ INCC ME 120 120 —^ ^ 80 80 60 60 NE ' FARM INCOrv\E 40 V / *• _ / **^« ' — ss / N •- s \ -•• \ ~s 1 \ \t t * t \ \ \ 1977 1 1 1 1978 1 1 1979 1 / / \ 40 / \ / \ / \N S \ \ \ \ \ / \ / *•- '/ / 1 1 \ | I'M 1 1 1 1980 1981 1 1 1982 1 \ i t .•' \ / * i \ / \ t \ I \i 10 1 . /^' "*'' « 1 N / 20 l\ / X / » 1 |V| 1 1983 20 10 1 1 1 1 1984 1 1 1985 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS * SEASONALLY ADJUS TED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from farmiig (jross farm incom 3 Net farai income Cas h marketing rece pts Total l Total 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1983: I n m IV 1984: I n m TV 1985: I rr nr m 128.4 150.7 149.6 166.0 161.6 150.6 174.0 112.2 131.5 Livestock and products inventory changes 2 53.0 139.8 142.1 142.9 136.3 141.8 59.2 69.2 68.0 69.2 70.3 69.4 72.7 62.3 71.8 72.9 72.7 66.8 69.1 2.1 5.0 -5.9 5.8 -1.4 -10.6 7.8 101.0 119.0 129.4 152.9 143.6 151.7 154.3 143.2 133.0 141.2 127.6 71.0 68.9 67.9 70.0 72.2 64.1 73.3 57.6 -10.6 -13.9 -12.9 -4.9 175.7 167.3 173.7 179.8 139.3 139.0 141.5 147.6 75.5 70.8 71.2 73.5 63.8 68.2 70.3 74.2 170.1 162.5 149.6 140.7 134.7 134.9 72.3 67.5 68.7 68.4 67.2 66.2 1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms, 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. Crops Production expenses 3 Current dollars 1982 dollars 3 136.1 136.9 135.6 139.5 31.7 20.2 29.8 24.6 15.0 34.5 38.0 40.3 23.6 31.8 24.6 14.5 31.9 135.1 134.9 135.5 136.9 17.8 8.7 16.2 17.3 17.4 8.5 15.5 16.4 2.0 8.7 10.3 10.2 139.2 140.2 140.0 138.5 36.5 27.0 33.6 41.2 34.2 25.1 30.9 37.6 2.4 -1.7 -4.0 137.1 135.1 133.0 32.9 27.4 16.6 29.8 24.6 14.8 27.4 Income in current dollars divided bv the GNP implicit price deflator (1982 = 100). NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Corporation loans and operator households. Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce. CORPORATE PROFITS In the fourth quarter of 1985, according to preliminary estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $11.2 billion (annual rate) and after-tax profits rose $8.4 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320 280 240 200 40 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Prc fits (before t ix) with inve ntory valuati }n adjustmen t 1 Profits after ta X Doinestie indust les Nonfinancial Period Total 2 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 r 1982: HI IV 208.2 214.1 194.0 202.3 159.2 195.0 232.3 226.1 161.6 150.7 1983: I 163.7 190.5 207.3 218.7 234.4 241.8 226.5 226.3 220.6 220.9 233.2 229.8 n m IV 1984: I n in IV 1985: I n m IV 1 2 Total 186.0 180.4 159.6 173.8 131.2 164.2 200.1 194.2 133.0 121.6 136.2 161.1 174.4 185.1 201.0 212.3 193.3 193.7 189.4 189.3 203.0 195.1 Financial Total 3 29.1 27.8 21.0 156.8 152.6 138.6 16.5 11.8 22.7 19.2 22.5 12.4 18.7 22.0 25.0 22.4 21.2 157.3 119.4 141.6 180.9 171.7 120.6 102.9 114.2 136.1 152.0 163.9. 180.2 191.9 176.1 175.3 170.2 166.7 179.2 170.5 20.8 20.4 17.2 18.4 19.2 22.5 23.8 24.7 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. Manufacturing 88.7 87.5 77.1 88.5 58.0 71.3 88.5 78.2 64.3 46.8 52.3 64.6 78.9 89.2 94.2 94.9 82.2 82.7 77.3 73.4 79.7 Profits before tax Tax liability 233.5 257.2 237.1 226.5 169.6 205.0 237.6 226.8 83.5 88.0 84.8 81.1 63.1 75.2 93.6 85.9 64.3 59.8 58.9 73.8 84.1 84.0 99.1 100.6 87.4 87.4 83.4 82.3 87.4 90.4 Whole sale and retail trade 27.3 28.7 21.6 32.5 34.6 39.1 50.7 49.5 32.9 33.6 32.6 40.8 39.9 43.1 46.8 52.7 51.5 51.8 48.7 50.6 53.6 3 171.6 164.1 167.1 199.8 225.4 227.6 247.4 247.4 227.7 228.0 220.0 218.7 228.6 239.8 Total 150.0 169.2 152.3 145.4 106.5 129.8 144.0 140.9 107.3 104.3 108.2 126.0 141.3 143.6 148.3 146.7 140.3 140.6 136.6 136.4 141.1 149.5 Dividends 44.7 50.1 54.7 63.6 66.9 70.8 78.1 83.5 66.6 68.5 69.3 69.6 71.1 73.1 75.3 77.5 78.9 80.7 82.0 83.1 83.9 85.0 Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Undistributed profits 105.2 119.1 97.6 81.8 39.6 59.0 65.9 57.4 40.7 35.8 38.9 56.4 70.3 70.6 73.1 69.2 61.3 60.0 54.6 53.3 57.3 64.5 Inventory valuation adjustment -25.3 -43.2 -43.1 -24.2 — 10.4 -10.0 -5.4 -.6 -10.0 -13.4 -3.4 -9.3 -18.1 -8.9 -13.0 -5.6 -1.3 -1.6 .7 2.2 4.7 * 10.1 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to revised estimates for the fourth quarter of 1985, business fixed investment rose $14.0 billion (annual rate) from its third quarter level while residential investment outlays rose $5.1 billion. There was a $4.3 billion decrease in inventories following an increase of $0.2 billion in the third quarter. BULK3NS OF DOLLA RS 800 BIL LIONS OF DOL .ARS SEASON* UY ADJUSTED ANNU AL RATES I 700 700 — 600 — - '"H GROSS 'RIVATE DOME STIC 1 MVESTMENT 1600 — \ f***1^ ^"xX, . vy/ ""-"I ^ ~/* -- 300 \. r\ r-—' ! >*. f / J h L - """" — "~*~\" _'•-" * NONRES|[5ENTIAL — FIXED INVE STMENT ,''' '400 s"" ~ *. — — " 300 __-- ___,~~- — ' 200 ^-.— -—• _.—-—— 100 *v._--*^" -"•».. o 1 i 1 1977 ^,. \ \ \ 1978 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1981 1980 1979 V"--—N CHANGE N BUSINESS , INVEf JTORIES / \ \ \ , ++ \''' 1 1 1 1982 \ 1 200 _ _,.-- ••** *--.... , **• -100 ! RESIDENTIAL FIX ED INVESTMEN T _ 500 ^ ** * 1 1983 SOURCE: DEPARTMEN T OF COMMERCE inn v ' ». ^ n • 1 ! 1 1984 | | | -100 1985 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Inixed investmen t private domestic investment 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 r. 1982: HI rv 1983: I n HI TV 1984: I n m TV 1985: I n mr IV . Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Change iri business mven .ones Nonresidential Total Total 416.8 454.8 437.0 515.5 447.3 501.9 674.0 669.3 452.2 409.6 425.0 483.7 521.2 577.6 658.8 673.3 687.9 676.2 388.2 441.9 445.3 491.5 471.8 508.3 607.0 661.8 461.2 469.5 467.7 489.2 524.0 552.1 566.7 604.5 619.5 637.2 259.0 302.8 322.8 369.2 366.7 356.3 427.9 476.2 657.6 672.8 666.1 680.7 639.1 657.3 665.9 685.0 459.6 474.2 478.5 492.5 360.7 354.9 338.0 343.0 357.3 386.8 394.1 423.4 435.9 458.1 Structures 81.0 99.5 113.9 138.5 143.3 126.1 147.6 170.2 140.2 137.6 127.6 121.5 124.7 130.5 135.0 147.0 151.3 157.2 166.1 169.7 170.4 174.5 Producers' durable equipment 178.0 203.3 208.9 230.7 223.4 230.2 280,2 306.0 220.5 217.3 210.4 221.5 232.6 256.3 259.1 276.5 284.5 300.9 293.5 304.5 308.1 318.0 Eesidential 129.2 139.1 122.5 122.3 105.1 152.0 179.1 185.6 100.5 114.7 129.7 146.2 166.7 165.4 172.6 181.0 183.7 179.1 179.4 183.1 187.4 192.5 Total 28.6 13.0 -8.3 24.0 24.5 -6.4 67.1 7.5 -9.0 59.9 42.7 -5.5 2.8 25.5 92.1 68.9 68.3 39.0 18.5 15.5 .2 -4.3 Nonfarm 26.5 7.9 -2.4 18.3 -23.1 .8 58.0 11.8 12.4 -51.1 -33.7 1.8 15.5 19.4 71.6 61.2 62.8 36.4 14.2 10.8 3.1 19.0 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT According to the Commerce Department October-November 1985 survey, business spending for new plant and equipment for the year 1986 is expected to be 2.4 percent above the 1985 level. Spending in 1985 is expected to be 8.4 percent above the 1984 level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 400 400 ALL INDUSTRIES 300 300 200 200 r NONMANUFACTURING -^ t>4- -MANUFACTURING 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 -2/1-2/1 1978 1979 1980 1982 1981 1984 1983 1986 1985 _i//SURVEYED QUARTERLY J/'SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Industries surveyed quarterly No imanufactu •ing M anufacturi !g Period 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 19854 19864 1983: I n m rv 1984: I n m IV 1985: I TJ 4 m4 IV 1986: I 44 U All industries Total Durable Nondurable Total > Mining Transportation Public utilities Commercial and other 31.50 35.63 37.74 41.21 45.43 44.96 47.48 48.23 46.13 83.09 94.56 100.14 110.24 109.63 114.45 134.75 149.96 161.58 44.69 105.58 110.37 117.79 124.09 128.42 132.67 136.80 141.13 145.17 151.02 151.69 151.96 164.30 164.57 217.76 254.96 282.80 315.22 310.58 304.78 354.44 384.22 393.52 78.58 95.92 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 152.42 152.30 39.46 48.50 55.36 59.81 55.35 53.08 66.24 72.53 70.76 39.13 47.42 56.96 66.73 65.33 63.12 72.58 79.89 81.54 139.18 159.04 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 231.79 241.23 11.22 12.81 15.99 21.39 20.05 15.19 16.86 15.84 14.85 13.36 16.05 16.60 15.84 14.79 13.97 16.52 17.77 18.67 289.36 295.24 308.79 325.75 337.95 349.97 361.48 368.29 371.16 387.83 388.90 388.98 402.13 405.99 111.32 112.73 116.70 124.05 129.91 135.96 142.44 146.96 145.65 154.33 154.04 155.68 154.74 159.16 50.67 50.12 53.96 57.58 61.23 64.03 68.26 71.43 69.87 73.96 72.85 73.46 71.95 74.55 60.65 62.61 62.74 66.48 68.68 71.93 74.18 75.53 75.78 80.36 81.19 82.22 82.79 84.60 178.04 182.51 192.09 201.70 208.04 214.01 219.04 221.33 225.51 233.51 234.86 233.30 247.39 246.83 14.69 14.17 15.59 16.34 17.24 16.38 16.82 17.00 15.66 16.51 15.94 15.24 15.30 15.75 13.08 13.51 14.04 15.24 15.29 17.01 17.49 16.28 16.22 17.50 19.09 18.25 18.80 18.98 1 Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May 1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nonmanufacturing surveyed annually") for data for these industries. 2 "AH industries" plus the part of nonmanufacturing that is surveyed annually. 10 Addenda 44.46 44.68 46.02 47.08 47.94 47.92 46.92 48.46 48.47 48.14 47.85 48.99 47.53 Total nonfarm busi- 245.34 284.94 314.47 349.26 347.47 343.35 398.99 Non manufactu ring Manufacturing 78.58 95.92 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 152.42 152.30 111.32 112.73 116.70 124.05 129.91 135.96 142.44 146.96 145.65 154.33 154.04 155.68 154.74 159.16 Total 166.76 189.02 202.15 222.72 226.79 227.15 260.16 Surveyed quarterly 139.18 159.04 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 231.79 241.23 Surveyed annual- ly 3 27.58 29.98 31.68 34.04 36.89 38.56 44.55 178.04 182.51 192.09 201.70 208.04 214.01 219.04 221.33 225.51 233.51 234.86 233.30 247.39 246.83 3 Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate. 4 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late October and November 1985, corrected for biases. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE In February, seasonally adjusted civilian employment fell 400,000, following an increase of the same magnitude in January (after adjustment for a change in estimation procedures effective with January 1986 data). Unemployment rose 700,000 in February. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 120 — 4 1978 *16 YEARS Of AGE AND OVER SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Pprinrl enou 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: Feb Mar Apr May June.... July Aug Sept .... Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan*... Feb Noninstitutional population including resident Armed Forces NSA 166,460 169,349 171,775 173,939 175,891 178,080 179,912 179,219 179,368 179,501 179,649 179,798 179,967 180,131 180,304 180,470 180,642 180,810 181,361 181,512 rril i NSA 1,597 1,604 1,645 1,668 1,676 1,697 1,706 1,703 1,701 1,702 1,705 1,702 1,704 1,726 1,732 1,700 1,702 1,698 1,691 1,691 T h f ? | *0rce resident Armed Forces 106,559 108,544 110,315 111,872 113,226 115,241 117,167 116,685 117,036 116,958 117,044 116,726 116,976 117,069 117,522 117,814 117,832 117,927 118,477 118,779 Employment including resident Armed Forces 100,421 100,907 102,042 101,194 102,010 106,702 108,856 108,290 108,652 108,574 108,644 108,303 108,575 108,936 109,251 109,513 109,671 109,904 110,646 110,252 Nonagricultural Civilian labor force 104,962 106,940 108,670 110,204 111,550 113,544 115,461 114,982 115,335 115,256 115,339 115,024 115,272 115,343 115,790 116,114 116,130 116,229 116,786 117,088 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc. 2 Labor force as percent of noninstitutional population (both including resident Armed Forces). 3 Civilian labor force as percent of civilian rioninstUntional population. Unempk>yment Civilian ernployment Resident Armed Total 98,824 99,303 100,397 99,526 100,834 105,005 107,150 106,587 106,951 106,872 106,939 106,601 106,871 107,210 107,519 107,813 107,969 108,206 108,955 108,561 Agricultural 3,347 3,364 3,368 3,401 3,383 3,321 3,179 3,325 3,314 3,353 3,284 3,140 3,120 3,095 3,017 3,058 3,070 3,151 3,299 3,096 Total Part-time for economic reasons 1 95,477 95,938 97,030 96,125 97,450 101,685 103,971 3,373 4,064 4,499 5,852 5,997 5,512 5,334 103,262 103,637 103,519 103.655 103,461 103,751 104,115 104,502 104,755 104,899 105,055 105,655 105,465 5,098 5,421 5,402 5,550 5,278 5,328 5,413 5,299 5,241 5,295 5,294 5,275 5,158 Total 6,137 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,395 8,384 8,384 8,400 8,423 8,401 8,133 8,271 8.301 8,161 8,023 7,831 8,527 15 weeks and over 1,241 1,871 2,285 3,485 4,210 2,737 2,305 2,413 2,400 2,374 2,274 2,328 2,329 2,274 2,307 2,277 2,205 2,188 2,056 2,340 Labor force partici ation rate (pe rcent) „ Civilian J 64.0 64.1 64.2 64.3 64.4 64.7 65.1 65.1 65.2 65.2 65.2 64.9 65.0 65.0 65.2 65.3 65.2 65.2 65.3 65.4 63.7 63.8 63.9 64.0 64.0 64.4 64.8 64.8 64.9 64.8 64.8 64.6 64.7 64.7 64.8 65.0 64.9 64.9 65.0 65.1 iotal * Data beginning January 1986 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of change in estimation procedures. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In February, the seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate rose to 7.2 percent (from 6.6 percent in January) and the civilian unemployment rate rose to 7.3 percent (from 6.7 percent in January). PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 25 25 ,\ \ 20 TEENAGERS (16-19) 20 BLACK ^?A..,A 15 15 BLACK AND OTHER 10 MEN 20 YEARS AND OVER _ 10 ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS J . WOME N 20 YEARS AND OVER WHITE iimlnm imiliim I t l l l l l l l l l Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982 1986 1983 1984 1985 1986 'UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unempl oyment ra te (percen t Period Unemployment rate, all workers 1 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 5.8 7.0 7.5 9.5 1985: Feb Mar Apr May June .... July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb B v sex and age of civilia n labor force in group) By s elected grou )S By race \n All civilian workers 5.8 7.1 7.6 9.7 9.6 7.5 Men 20 years and over 4.2 Women 20 years and over Both sexes 16-19 years White Black Experienced wage and salary workers Married men, spouse present 12.3 14.3 15.6 18.9 19.5 15.9 15.1 5.5 6.5 6.2 11.3 13.1 14.2 17.3 17.8 14.4 13.7 6.9 7.3 9.3 9.2 7.1 6.8 2.8 4.2 4.3 6.5 6.5 4.6 4.3 6.8 8.3 8.1 6.8 6.6 16.1 17.8 19.6 23.2 22.4 18.9 18.6 5.1 6.3 6.7 8.6 8.4 5.7 6.4 Black and other Women who maintain families 8.3 9.2 Fulltime workers Parttime workers 5.3 6.9 7.3 9.6 9.5 7.2 6.8 8.8 8.8 9.4 10.5 10.4 9.3 8.8 9.5 9.7 7.2 5.9 6.3 8.8 8.9 6.6 6.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 6.9 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.8 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.3 6.2 6.3 6.1 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.4 6.4 6.2 18.4 18.2 17.9 18.8 18.6 19.3 17.5 18.1 19.8 18.4 18.8 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.4 6.3 6.1 6.1 6.1 5.9 5.9 14.4 13.8 13.8 13.9 13.2 13.5 12.8 13.7 13.5 14.1 13.4 16.0 15.2 15.2 15.4 14.4 15.0 14.1 15.2 14.9 15.6 14.9 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.0 4.6 4.4 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 10.9 10.3 10.7 10.8 9.4 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.6 7.2 6.7 7.3 5.7 6.2 6.1 6.7 18.4 19.0 5.7 6.4 12.8 13.3 14.4 14.8 6.3 6.8 4.3 4.5 9.9 9.9 6.4 6,9 9.5 7.4 7.1 1 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces. Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. 2 10.4 11.7 12.2 10.3 10.4 9.9 10.3 10.8 11.3 10.4 10.0 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 9.3 Labor force time lost (percent) 2 6.3 7.9 8.5 11.0 10.9 8.6 8.1 9.5 9.4 9.0 9.3 9.6 8.8 9.0 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.1 7.9 7.9 7.8 8.4 9.4 7.6 8.1 10.0 SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In February, the percentages of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 5-14 weeks fell, while the percentages out of work for 15-26 weeks and for 27 weeks and over rose. The mean and the median duration of unemployment rose. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT A ^ 60 60 "\ 50 50 JOB LOSERS 40 ^~ LESS THAN 5 WEEKS V^ V A.-* 40 5-14 WEEKS 30 30 REENTRANTS 27 WEEKS AND OVER 20 NEW ENTRANTS 10 10 15-26 WEEKS iim 1982 JOB LEAVERS Illllllllll 1983 1985 1984 Illllllllll Illllllllll 1986 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Be ason for inemploy ment: percent distributi }n Dur ation of i nemplojTnent I'ercent d stributioii Unemploy- Stat e progra ms Numb er of wee ks Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) ' Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Medi- Job losers Job leavers Reentrants New entrants 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 43.1 41.7 36.4 33.3 39.2 42.1 32.3 30.7 31.0 27.4 28.7 30.2 13.8 13.6 16.0 15.4 12.9 12.3 10.7 14.0 16.6 23.9 19.1 15.4 11.9 13.7 15.6 20.0 18.2 15.6 6.5 6.9 8.7 10.1 7.9 6.8 51.7 51.6 58.7 58.4 51.8 49.8 11.7 11.2 7.9 7.7 9.6 10.6 25.2 25.4 22.3 22.5 25.6 27.1 11.4 11.9 11.1 11.3 13.0 12.5 3,350 3,047 4,061 3,396 2,480 488 460 583 438 378 3,837 3,410 4,594 3,775 2,565 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 8,395 8,384 8,384 8,400 8,423 8,401 8,133 8,271 8,301 8,161 8,023 41.7 42.1 41.9 42.6 41.6 42.1 41.7 42.0 41.6 42.7 42.1 29.6 29.5 29.9 30.6 30.4 30.0 30.6 30.2 30.8 30.2 30.7 12.7 12.6 12.2 12.5 12.4 12.9 12.8 12.5 12.8 11.0 12.1 16.0 15.9 16.0 14.3 15.5 14.9 15.0 15.3 14.8 16.1 15.1 16.0 15.9 16.1 15.0 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.7 15.4 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.8 7.1 6.9 7.0 6.9 6.9 50.4 49.6 50.3 47.6 49.6 50.2 50.8 50.2 49.1 50.0 48.8 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.4 11.7 10.7 10.7 10.3 11.1 9.9 10.9 26.6 27.4 27.1 28.4 26.6 26.1 26.9 28.3 27.2 27.2 27.6 12.6 12.8 12.5 13.6 12.1 13.1 11.5 11.1 12.7 12.9 12.8 2,646 2,620 2,575 2,562 2,581 2,609 2,585 2,560 2,535 2,560 2,564 411 394 390 389 398 391 386 384 380 382" 391 3,339 3,113 2,766 2,455 2,337 2,523 2,361 2,212 2,227 2,468 2,884 Jan Feb 7,831 8,527 42.4 41.8 31.3 30.8 12.4 13.5 13.9 14.0 14.9 15.3 6.8 6.9 48.0 48.7 12.7 11.7 26.3 26.8 13.0 12.8 2,591 2,610 370 392 (thousands) Insured unemployment Initial claims Weekly average, th ousands 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: 1986: 1 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program. 7.2 Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Adir tration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 226,000 in February. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 00 rrr^ — 1 p — - ~ ALL NONAGRIClJLTURAL E STABLISHME NTS " " 80 _„.—• — ~""SERV ICE-PRODUC ING INDUSTRIES 60 — — 40 — GOC5DS-PRODUC ING INDUSTRIES \^_ 30 iiiiliniT ITTriTiiiii ?0 1982 1983 Illllllllll Illllllllll lllllllillh 1984 1986 ' 1985 1986 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of wage and salary workers; l seasonally adjusted] Se rvice-produ ing industr es Goods-] roducing in dustries Total nonagricultural employment Period 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985r 1985: 89,823 90,406 91,156 :... 89,566 90,196 94,461 97,699 Feb Mar Apr May.... June ... July.... Aug.... Sept.... Oct Nov .... Dec r .. M anufacturin g Total 2 26,461 25,658 25,497 23,813 23,334 24,730 25,057 Construction Nondurable goods Durable goo s 4,463 4,346 4,188 3,905 3,948 4,345 4,662 21,040 20,285 20,170 18,781 18,434 19,412 19,426 12,760 12,187 12,109 11,039 10,732 11,522 11,566 8,280 8,098 8,061 7,741 7,702 7,890 7,860 63,363 64,748 65,659 65,753 66,862 69,731 72,643 11,675 11,651 11,608 11,586 11,560 11,509 11,519 11,449 11,493 11,512 11,534 7,886 7,875 7,859 7,840 7,838 7,842 7,843 7,830 7,845 7,869 7,899 71,529 71,854 72,030 72,355 72,463 72,727 72,962 73,255 73,508 73,712 73,931 5,272 5,269 5,278 5,327 5,342 5,350 11,546 11,521 7,914 7,910 74,190 74,484 5,360 5,350 25,062 25,056 25,090 25,066 25,010 24,980 25,015 24,962 25,051 25,089 25,155 4,525 4,553 4,641 4,658 4,638 4,660 4,688 4,721 4,753 4,754 4,770 19,561 19,526 19,467 19,426 19,398 19,351 19,362 19,279 19,338 19,381 19,433 1986: Jan r... 99,507 Feb".. 99,733 25,317 25,249 4,909 4,884 19,460 19,431 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in mmagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this tahie not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p, 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as emploved when they are not at work because of industrial dis- Transportation and public utilities Total 96,591 96,910 97,120 97,421 97,473 97,707 97,977 98,217 98,559 98,801 99,086 14 Total 5,136 5,146 5,165 5,082 4,954 5,171 5,300 5,301 5,295 5,302 5,282 5,317 Wholesale trade Retail trade Finance, insurance, and real estate 2,773 2,866 2,772 2,739 2,774 2,807 2,875 6,048 6,068 21,480 21,644 21,723 21,813 21,856 21,926 22,073 22,155 22,244 22,365 22,450 16,111 16,143 16,158 16,213 16,213 16,341 16,343 16,452 16,486 16,484 16,513 2,834 2,850 2,859 2,873 2,872 2,878 2,886 2,904 2,892 2,904 2,914 6,100 6,128 22,535 22,654 16,481 16,495 2,910 2,914 4,975 5,697 5,805 5,830 5,833 5,848 17,160 17,249 17,280 17,392 17,425 17,453 17,514 17,539 17,610 17,640 17,702 5,809 5,835 5,858 5,888 5,906 5,932 5,959 5,987 5,874 5,900 17,840 17,957 5,791 Federal 15,947 16,241 16,031 15,837 15,869 15,984 16,295 14,989 15,035 15,189 15,179 15,613 16,584 17,425 5,733 5,748 5,768 5,773 Total 17,112 17,890 18,619 19,036 19,694 20,761 21,930 5,204 5,275 5,358 5,278 5,268 5,550 5,769 5,714 Gover nment Services 5,160 5,298 5,341 5,468 5,682 5,924 6,011 putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from emploving establishments. ^ Includes mining, not shown separately, Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average gi oss hourlv earn ings Average weekh hours Period Manufa cturing Total private nonagricultural ' Total Total private nonagricultural ' Overtime 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 35.8 35.7 35.3 35.2 34.8 35.0 35.3 35.1 40.4 40.2 39.7 39.8 38.9 40.1 40.7 40.5 3.6 3.3 1985: Feb Mar Apr Mav June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec r. 35.1 35.2 35.0 35.1 35.1 35.0 35.1 35.1 35.1 35.0 35.1 40.1 40.4 40.2 40.4 40.4 40.3 40.6 40.7 40.7 40.7 41.0 Jan r Feh" 35.2 35.0 40.9 40.8 1986: Manufacturing $5.69 6.16 6.66 Adjust d hourlv earnings index — total private nonagric ultural 2 Ind ex, 1977 = 100 1977 dollars 3 Current dollars 7.25 7.68 8.02 8.33 8.58 $6.17 6.70 7.27 7.99 8.49 8.83 9.18 9.52 108.2 116.8 127.3 138.9 148.5 155.4 160.7 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.6 8.49 8.52 8.54 8.55 8.59 8.57 8.60 8.65 8.64 8.67 8.74 9.41 9.43 9.48 9.49 9.51 9.53 9.56 9.56 9.58 9.61 9.66 3.5 3.4 8.68 8.72 9.62 9.66 2.8 2.8 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.3 Percent chang e from a vear earlie r 4 5 Current dollars 1977 dollars 8.2 7.9 9.0 9.1 165.5 100.5 97.4 93.5 92.6 93.4 94.9 94.8 94.3 6.9 4.6 3.4 3.0 0.5 -3.1 -4.0 -1.0 .9 1.6 -.1 -.5 164.0 164.4 164.8 164.9 165.7 165.4 165.7 166.7 166.4 167.1 168.4 94.7 94.5 94.4 94.3 94.5 94.2 94.2 94.6 94.1 94.1 94.4 3.3 3.2 2.9 3.1 3.2 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 -.2 -.7 -1.2 -.9 -.8 -1.0 .0 .4 .1 -.4 5 167.5 168.5 93.6 94.6 2.8 2.8 -1.0 -.2 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Percent cr ange from a year earlier, total private n onagricultural 5 Avera ge gross weekly ea rnmgs Period Current dollars 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Manufacturing Total jrivate nonagnc ultural ' Construction Retail trade Current dollars 1977 dollars 3 1977 dollars Current dollars $203.70 219.91 235.10 255.20 267.26 280.70 294.05 301.16 $189.31 183.41 172.74 170.13 168.09 171.26 173.48 171.60 $249.27 269.34 288.62 318.00 330.26 354.08 373.63 385.56 $318.69 342.99 367.78 399.26 426.82 442.97 456.92 462.20 $130.20 138.62 147.38 158.03 163.85 171.05 176.40 177.31 7.8 8.0 6.9 8.5 4.7 5.0 4.8 2.4 0.2 -3.1 -5.8 -1.5 -1.2 1.9 1.3 — 1.1 1985: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec r . 298.00 299.90 298.90 300.11 301.51 299.95 301.86 303.62 303.26 303.45 306.77 172.15 172.46 171.19 171.69 172.00 170.81 171.61 172.32 171.62 170.86 171.96 377.34 380.97 381.10 383.40 384.20 384.06 388.14 389.09 389.91 391.13 396.06 463.81 465.58 465.88 460.60 454.96 459.85 459.75 466.17 464.65 459.27 458.56 177.01 177.31 176.42 178.20 177.61 176.72 176.42 177.60 176.71 177.00 177.56 2.1 3.3 2.1 2.4 2.8 1.8 2.6 2.4 3.0 2.4 2.6 -1.3 -.6 -2.0 -1.5 -1.2 -1.9 -.4 -.3 .1 -1.0 -1.0 1986: Jan r Feb p . 305.54 305.20 170.69 171.27 393.46 392.20 471.75 444.68 177.30 176.69 3.1 2.6 -.6 -.4 1 4 2 5 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing. Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (on a 1977=100 base). Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places. Based on seasonally unadjusted data. 3 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output pt r hour of all pe rsons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Outj ut ' Business sector Hours of all pers HIS 2 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Compens ation per hoi r 3 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real com pensation per b our 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit lab or costs Implic t price defla tor 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 107.0 19rf7 = 100; ( quarterly c ata seasoiial!y adjusted 1978 1979 1980 100.8 99.6 99.2 100.8 99.2 98.8 105.8 107.8 106.6 105.9 107.9 106.7 104.9 108.3 107.5 105.1 108.7 108.0 108.5 119.1 131.5 108,6 118.9 131.3 100.8 99.4 96.7 100.9 99.2 96.6 107.7 119.6 132.6 107.7 119.8 132.9 107.3 117.0 127.6 116.5 127.8 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 100.7 100.3 103.1 105.2 105.4 99.8 99.2 102.5 104.1 104.0 108.9 105.5 110.0 119.0 122.2 108.5 104.9 110.2 118.9 122.1 108.2 105.2 106.8 113.1 115.9 108.7 105.8 107.5 114.2 117.4 143.7 154.9 161.9 168.2 175.1 143.6 154.8 162.1 168.0 174.3 95.7 97.3 98.5 98.2 98.6 95.7 97.2 98.6 98.0 98.2 142.7 154.5 157.1 159.9 166.1 144.0 156.0 158.1 161.4 167.6 139.8 148.1 153.0 158.7 163.1 140.3 149.2 154.2 159.6 164.8 1982: in IV 100.3 101.0 99.1 99.7 105.1 105.0 104.5 104.2 104.8 103.9 105.5 104.5 156.6 158.3 156.3 158.2 97.2 97.9 97.0 97.8 156.2 156.7 157.6 158.6 149.3 150.2 150.3 151.4 1983: I II 102.3 103.5 103.1 103.6 101.3 102.8 102.9 103.0 106.6 109.3 110.8 113.4 106.2 109.3 111.4 113.8 104.2 105.6 107.5 109.5 104.8 106.3 108.2 110.5 160.1 161.5 162.1 164.1 160.4 161.6 162.3 164.0 99.0 98.7 98.1 98.3 99.1 98.8 98.2 98.2 156.6 156.0 157.2 158.4 158.3 157.2 157.7 159.1 151.1 152.0 153.7 154.9 152.3 153.6 154.8 156.1 104.9 105.5 105.3 105.0 104.0 104.5 104.2 103.8 117.1 119.2 119.6 120.1 117.1 119.2 119.5 120.0 111.6 113.0 113.6 114.4 112.6 114.0 114.7 115.6 166.1 167.5 169.1 170.4 165.9 167.4 168.8 170.1 98.3 98.2 98.2 98.1 98.1 98.1 98.0 97.9 158.4 158.7 160.6 162.3 159.6 160.1 162.0 163.9 156.6 158.0 159.4 160.8 157.1 158.8 160.5 161.9 105.3 105.5 105.9 105.1 104.1 104.2 104.3 103.4 121.2 121.9 122.6 123.0 121.1 121.8 122.6 123.0 115.1 115.6 115.8 117.0 116.3 116.9 117.5 118.9 172.4 174.3 176.1 177.6 172.1 173.7 175.0 176.4 98.5 98.5 98.9 98.7 98.3 98.2 98.3 98.1 163.8 165.2 166.3 169.0 165.3 166.8 167.8 170.5 161.6 162.7 163.5 164.5 163.0 164.5 165.5 166.1 m IV 1984: I II in IV 1985: I II in IV Pel cent change; quarte rly data a seasonal! y adjusted annual ra tes 1978 1979 1980 0.8 -1.2 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1.5 -.4 2.8 2.1 .2 Q 0.8 -1.6 -.4 5.8 1.9 -1.1 5.9 1.8 -1.1 4.9 3.2 -.8 5.1 3.5 -.7 8.5 9.7 10.5 8.6 9.5 10.5 0.8 -1.4 -2.7 0.9 -1.6 -2.7 7.7 11.1 10.8 7.7 11.2 11.0 7.3 9.1 9.0 7.0 8.9 9.7 1.0 2.1 3.1 4.3 8.2 2.7 1.7 -3.3 5.0 8.0 2.7 .7 -2.7 1.5 6.0 2.4 .7 2.7 1.6 6.3 2.8 9.2 7.8 4.5 3.9 4.1 9.4 7.7 4.7 3.7 3.7 -1.0 1.6 1.3 -.3 .5 -.9 i.5 1.5 -.6 .1 7.7 8.2 1.7 1.8 3.8 8.3 8.4 1.3 2.1 3.9 9.6 5.9 3.3 3.8 2.8 9.7 6.3 3.4 3.5 3.3 -3.4 -1.2 -3.4 -3.3 7.5 4.5 7.5 5.0 .1 2.9 .2 3.4 7.2 1.5 7.6 2.6 5.6 2.4 5.7 3.0 Q 3.3 1.6 O -3.4 -3.5 .3 3.0 .0 2.4 -3.1 -.4 in IV 5.1 4.9 -1.5 1.9 6.5 6.1 .4 .4 6.3 10.5 5.8 9.5 7.6 12.2 7.9 9.0 1.1 5.3 7.4 7.5 1.1 5.8 7.5 8.6 4.7 3.4 1.5 5.1 5.6 3.1 1.8 4.0 4.4 -.9 -2.6 .8 5.3 -1.1 -2.3 -.2 -1.4 3.1 3.1 g -2.8 1.4 3.6 2.3 2.6 4.4 3.3 2.4 3.3 3.3 3.4 1984: I II HI IV 5.1 2.5 -.8 -1.3 3.6 2.2 -1.3 j3 13.6 7.5 1.3 1.7 12.1 7.2 1.2 1.8 8.1 4.9 2.1 3.1 8.2 4.9 2.5 3.1 4.9 3.3 4.1 3.1 4.9 3.6 3.4 3.2 -.2 -.3 .2 -.6 2 .0 -.4 -.4 -.2 .8 4.9 4.5 1.2 1.3 4.8 4.6 4.4 3.7 3.6 3.5 2.4 4.4 4.4 3.6 1985: 1.0 .8 1.6 -3.1 1.0 .2 .4 -3.1 3.6 2.3 2.5 1.1 3.6 2.3 2.6 1.5 2.5 1.5 .9 4.3 2.6 2.1 2.1 4.7 4.8 4.4 4.2 3.4 4.7 3.8 2.8 3.3 1.5 .4 1.6 -.8 1.4 2 3.7 3.5 2.5 6.7 3.6 3.6 2.4 6.6 2.1 2.8 2.0 2.4 2.7 3.7 2.6 1.4 1982: III IV 1983: I II I n m IV 1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1982 dollars. Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed. 2 16 4 .3 -1.0 0 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers. Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production fell 0.6 percent in February, following a rise of 0.1 percent in January. The index for February was 1.6 percent above its year-earlier level. INDE X, 1977=100* (RATIOS CALE) 140 INDE X, 1977=100* (RATIOS CALE) 220 TOTAL INDUSTRIA L PRODUCT ION —"~ 120 >^ 100 ^^ 200 _ FINAL PFJODUCTS DEFEf vISE AND 180 S PACE " EQUIPMENT -^ 5 _ BUSINES 160 V S*^ EQUIPMEI •JT p» J __ ^^^^ I iimliiiiilmiiliim Minium Illllllllll lltllllllll 120 J-NT- f *^—5^— NONDl RABLE '*S /*** I ^^ .. ^*>M^^ \^^ >».-- ^ ^' CONSUME*t GOODS 100 lll|i|l|Ui 100 k^ l—-^' ^-X^^***" ^*g£ " r< f __^»^"NjU x^"" PRODUCTIC5N 140 ^MANUFACTURING DURABLE 120 .-•••""'""" 140 • ||lll||llll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 1 PER CENT* Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 90 140 _ MANUFACTURING CAPACITY JTILIZATIO N RATE _ UTILITIE 5ANDMIN ING PROD UCTION UTILITIES 120 \ . \ / '^taS'^S *"v"* "\^ *«M*rj" 100 Illllllllll lllllllllli Illllllllll 1982 1983 80 x-v. 1984 fc... j,* ^ •*~~^' -'1 \ I— MINING- \ T^ 70 Illllllltll Illllllllll 1985 60 iimlmiilmiiliim Illllllllll 1982^ | 1983 1986 1984 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM l|l|lllllll Illllllllll 1985 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] To tal indu trial produ ction Period Index, 1977=100 1977 proportion 100.0 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: 106.5 110.7 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.8 124.5 123.7 124.0 124.1 124.1 124.3 124.1 125.2 125.1 124.4 125.4 126.3 126.5 125.7 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov r . 1986: 1 Dec ' Jan * Feb" Output as percent of capacity. Industry prot uction indexes , 1977 = 100 Capacity utilization rate, pc rcent l Manufacturing Percent change from year earlier 6.5 3.9 -1.9 2.2 -7.1 5.9 11.5 2.2 3.7 3.3 2.8 2.3 1.6 .7 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.6 2.4 2.3 1.6 Mining Total Durable Utilities Nondurable 84.21 49.10 35.11 9.83 5.96 107.1 111.5 108.2 110.5 102.2 110.2 123.9 127.1 125.8 126.3 126.6 126.6 126.7 126.9 128.2 127.7 127.2 128.4 129.2 129.7 128.8 108.2 113.9 109.1 111.1 99.9 107.7 124.8 128.2 127.2 128.0 128.2 127.9 127.6 127.9 129.4 128.3 127.7 129.2 129.8 129.8 128.8 105.5 108.2 107.0 109.7 105.5 113.7 122.5 125.6 123.8 123.9 124.3 124.7 125.5 125.6 126.6 126.9 126.4 127.3 128.3 129.4 128.9 103.6 106.4 112.4 117.5 109.3 102.9 110.9 109.0 109.5 110.5 109.6 109.8 110.6 108.7 108.3 108.4 108.4 106.9 107.5 107.5 104.3 103.1 105.9 107.3 107.1 104.8 105.2 110.9 113.2 115.8 113.9 113.6 113.7 113.4 110.7 110.3 113.2 112.4 112.2 114.6 112.8 114.4 Manufacturing Industrial materials 84.2 84.6 79.3 78.3 86.3 87.1 81.1 81.1 71.7 75.3 82.3 80.2 81.5 81.4 80.9 80.1 80.1 79.5 79.9 79.5 79.3 79.2 80.0 79.6 79.0 70.3 74.0 80.8 80.3 80.4 80.5 80.5 80.3 80.1 80.1 80.7 80.1 79.6 80.2 80.4 80.5 79.9 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1977 — 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Produ -ts Mate rials ^inal produe s Internlediate pro lucts C onsumer go tds Equipment Period Total Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total > Business Defense and space equipment Total Construction supplies Total Energy supplies 1977 proportion 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 r 44.77 10(5.9 111.0 112.2 115.2 109.5 114.7 127.8 132.0 25.52 104.3 103.9 102.7 104.1 101.4 109.3 118.2 120.7 6.89 18.63 19.25 14.34 3.67 12.94 5.95 6.99 103.7 99.9 88.4 89.7 82.9 98.5 112.6 112.9 104.5 105.4 108.1 109.3 108.3 113.3 120.2 123.6 110.3 120.4 124.7 129.9 120.2 121.7 140.5 147.0 112.2 124.7 125.1 127.6 113.6 115.4 134.9 141.2 101.2 105.6 115.4 119.8 133.0 143.1 157.9 173.6 106.9 110.8 106.9 107.3 101.7 111.2 124.9 130.6 106.9 108.7 100.6 98.6 88.3 100.6 114.0 118.9 106.9 112.7 112.3 114.7 113.1 120.3 134.2 140.6 42.28 105.9 110.3 105.3 107.7 96.7 102.8 114.6 114.7 101.1 104.1 105.5 104.7 101.2 98.4 104.0 104.4 1985: Feb Mar Apr Mav June Julv Aug Sept Oct Nov r Dec ' 130.4 130.8 131.3 131.7 131.6 131.8 133.3 133.3 131.9 133.7 134.2 119.1 119.8 119.5 120.0 120.4 120.1 121.5 121.8 120.8 122.7 124.0 112.8 113.5 111.5 111.8 112.0 111.3 114.0 112.9 111.4 115.5 116.9 121.4 122.1 122.5 123.1 123.5 123.4 124.2 125.1 124.3 125.4 126.7 145.3 145.4 146.9 147.1 146.6 147.3 149.0 148.6 146.6 148.3 147.8 140.0 140.2 142.0 141.9 140.7 141.3 143.0 142.2 139.6 141.7 141.2 167.3 169.0 170.1 171.2 173.4 173.9 175.5 177.5 178.7 180.7 180.7 127.7 128.6 129.3 130.3 131.4 130.7 132.0 132.3 131.5 132.7 133.7 115.7 116.9 117.4 118.1 119.2 119.4 121.5 121.3 120.0 120.9 120.7 137.9 138.6 139.4 140.7 141.7 140.3 140.9 141.7 141.2 142.7 144.9 115.4 115.5 1 15.0 114.2 1 14.3 113.8 114.5 114.2 114.2 114.3 115.7 104.9 106.2 105.3 105.3 105.1 103.5 102.7 103.4 104.2 102.5 105.8 1986: Jan r. Feb" 134.6 133.6 124.3 124.4 116.7 117.6 127.2 126.9 148.1 145.9 142.4 141.3 179.5 177.6 134.8 134.8 123.3 122.5 144.7 115.4 114.5 104.0 1 11.69 104.0 Includes rigs and prefabs, not shown separate. [1977—100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Ni ndurable nanufaetu res Durable m mufactures Transp ortation equip ment Priman metals Period Total 1977 proportion 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 ' Iron and steel Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinerv Electrical machinery Total Motor vehicles and parts Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Foods 7.96 3.49 6.46 9.54 7.15 9.13 5.25 2.30 2.79 4.54 107.5 108.0 86.3 92.5 57.5 66.1 73.5 70.5 105.7 109.4 101.8 101.6 86.6 89.1 102.8 107.9 111.7 122.6 123.3 129.8 115.6 118.3 142.0 146.4 112.9 125.7 130.3 134.1 128.4 143.8 172.4 169.3 106.3 108.3 96.9 95.1 87.6 99.2 113.6 123.2 104.6 95.9 71.1 71.6 66.8 85.8 105.6 112.8 102.4 102.0 92.9 90.1 82.8 100.2 109.1 112.9 103.1 98.3 97.3 96.1 87.3 95.3 102.8 101.9 107.8 112.7 115.1 118.6 120.2 129.8 147.9 155.4 8.0.5 106.8 111.4 106.4 112.6 103.8 114.0 121.7 127.1 104.3 106.7 111.4 113.7 114.9 120.4 127.1 131.0 109.1 109.5 110.9 112.2 113.5 113.0 114.8 115.9 116.5 115.6 116.5 103.1 101.3 100.2 100.3 99.2 100.6 100.4 101.8 102.6 103.9 106.5 150.3 152.6 154.2 155.4 156.7 154.3 156.3 156.2 157.0 159.0 161.7 125.8 126.5 125.8 126.7 126.4 126.4 128.2 129.0 127.9 128.0 128.3 129.4 128.5 130.8 131.4 131.8 132.2 132.6 132.5 130.7 131.4 132.1 107.8 162.4 161.4 129.4 133.5 Feb Mar Apr Mav June Julv Aug Sept Oct Nov r Dec1: 80.2 81.8 81.4 76.4 78.3 79.0 82.0 80.3 83.1 83.6 81.4 68.5 73.2 71.9 65.4 67.6 68.7 71.6 69.7 74.4 75.3 71.9 107.6 108.6 109.1 108.3 107.4 107.3 107.8 107.5 108.4 107.9 108.8 144.9 146.5 148.9 149.1 145.6 147.5 149.2 146.5 143.0 145.6 145.9 173.2 173.1 168.9 169.3 169.5 165.7 166.1 165.1 165.1 168.9 171.9 120.5 120.8 120.7 120.9 121.8 123.7 126.8 126.2 124.5 126.5 126.8 112.5 111.3 110.9 110.5 110.5 112.8 116.8 115.3 111.7 114.5 115.4 1986: Jan r Feb" 83.4 81.5 73.5 109.7 109.0 144.6 143.5 167.9 166.6 129.0 128.4 118.1 118.8 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Apparel products ,5.33 107.0 108.5 90.4 95.0 65.8 73.0 82.4 80.6 1985: 18 Lumber and products NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Constructio n contracts 2 Private Period Total newconstruction expenditures Resi iential Total New housing Total J Commercial and industrial Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1977=100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) I iillions of dollars 215.9 241.9 238.0 246.7 236.9 268.7 313.0 342.8 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 170.0 193.1 183.0 193.3 186.1 218.0 257.8 280.5 103.8 110.5 94.5 94.1 80.6 121.3 145.1 148.2 36.7 42.7 44.7 47.9 50.9 48.1 50.9 56.4 29.6 39.9 43.8 51.3 54.6 48.7 61.9 75.8 86.2 90.1 70.4 70.2 57.7 95.7 114.6 113.4 114.0 121.0 108.0 112.0 111.0 138.0 150.0 161.0 45.9 48.8 55.0 53.3 50.8 50.7 55.2 62.4 1986: 1,064 Annual rates Annual rates 1985: 977 1,059 904 919 690 756 955 Jan Feb Mar Apr Mar June Julv Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 341.0 334.3 333.7 341.9 339.9 343.8 344.2 343.2 346.1 346.1 345.1 354.0 283.7 276.5 274.6 282.0 276.4 278.9 279.5 279.4 282.5 283.3 282.5 289.5 155.3 146.0 146.2 146.5 142.3 147.2 148.7 146.9 148.9 151.1 149.7 150.6 113.0 110.3 110.8 112.6 112.0 112.2 112.8 113.4 113.8 115.8 115.3 116.5 73.7 74.7 74.0 78.5 76.5 73.5 73.3 75.0 76.8 76.4 77.2 82.5 54.7 55.7 54.4 56.9 57.7 58.3 57.5 57.5 56.8 55.8 55.7 56.4 57.4 57.8 59.1 59.9 63.5 64.9 64.7 63.9 63.6 62.8 62.5 64.5 Jan". Feb". 357.3 290.6 152.8 119.3 81.5 56.3 66.7 163 161 154 164 164 167 168 162 162 974 990 ,049 ,104 ,008 836 ,103 ,097 ,118 ,104 1,111 951 !46 162 848 941 153 152 167 r NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New pri\ ate homes New private housing units Units started, In tvpe of structure Period Total 2,020.3 1,745.1 1,292.2 1,084.2 1,062.2 1,703.0 1,749.5 1,741.8 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985r 1 unit 1,433.3 1,194.1 852.2 705.4 662.6 1,067.6 1,084.2 1,072.4 2-4 units 5 or more units 125.0 122.0 109.5 462.0 429.0 330.5 91.1 80.0 113.5 121.4 93.4 287.7 319.6 522.0 544.0 576.1 Units authorized 1,800.5 1,551.8 1,190.6 985.5 1,000.5 1,605.2 1,681.8 1,740.8 Units completed Homes sold 1,867.5 1,870.8 1,501.6 1,265.7 1,005.5 1 ,390.3 1,652.2 1,702.6 817 709 545 436 412 623 639 687 Vacancv rate Homes for sale at end of period l 3 414 398 336 272 251 300 356 354 housing units (percent) 2 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.3 5.7 5.9 Seasonal y adjusted annu al rates 1985: 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr Mar June Julv Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec r. 1,804 1,632 1,849 1,851 1,684 1,693 1,673 1,737 1 ,653 1,784 1,654 1,882 1,039 1,111 1,147 1,129 1,041 1,036 1,068 1,071 1,006 1,118 1,006 1,098 105 96 103 106 105 95 86 97 85 80 76 83 660 425 599 616 538 562 519 569 562 586 572 701 1,635 1,624 1,741.. 1,704 1,778 1,712 1,694 1,784 1,808 1,688 1,661 1,873 Jan T Feb p. 2,056 1,985 1,357 1,208 110 113 589 664 1,907 1,803 ' 1,702 l,771 r l,691 r 1,659 T 1,635 r 1,758 r 1,722 r 1,720 r l,778 r l,541 r l,721 1,757 629 676 r 698 648 684 710 r 745 708 681 r 637 r 719 721 r r r 1,782 r r r 753 355 359 356 r 355 r 355 354 351 348 350 r 353 r 354 354 r 358 6.3 6.2 6.8 6.7 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturing and trade sales fell 0.4 percent in January and inventories rose $2.8 billion. According to revised data, retail sales fell 0.1 percent in February following a rise of 0.1 percent in January. BILLIC)NS OF DDL ARS* (RATIC) SCALE) BILLIC )NS OF DOL1 650 200 1 190 — 180 170 — 600 "" ^*~1 550 — — " 500 ^^. "1t= 400 0f -=T- — 130 ^_^ ^1 ^_/^ 1 {ETAIL INVEh4TORIES ^-^x- — 120 S* M ^NUFACTUR NG 350 5" •"•••«*... „-' — x\ {—\- 140 -'-*'—* SCALE) /~\ * 160 150 ™~ e=] -\ MANUFA CTURING AhID TRADE NVENTORIEJ 450 — ARS* (RATIC) ^*"** 110 — M *ID TRADE SA LES ^* 100 300 "^ _,-**^~~ RETAIL SA Lfcb =f 90 —-s^''"~ 80 — 250 ^— — ll|||llllll lllllllllll 70 llll||lllll iiiiiluiii lllllllllll RATIC 3* 200 1.80 _ INVENT DRY-SALES> RATIO 1.60 R ETAIL ^^~~ — - 150 1.40 ^ 1983 1 1982 ! 1984 1985 -V-3S£ V* AND TRADE lllllllllll 1.00 1982 1986" lllllllllll llll||||lll lllllllllll lllllllllll 1983 Sales Inventories 3 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Sales 2 Inventory-s ales ratio 4 He tail Whol esale Sales 2 11985 ' 1984 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Manufact iring and trac e ' r ^7^ ^— ^Sr \ M/ NUFACTURI •4G 1.20 ||||llll||| lllllllllll ||l|lllllll lllllllllll ||llllllll| — Invento- Total 2 Durable goods stores inventories 3 Nondurable goods stores Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Manufacturing Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally iidjusted r r 1978 1979 1980 r 1981 r 1982 r 1983 r 1984 r 1985 r 1985: Jan T Feb r Mar r. Apr r May r June r July r Aug ' Sept ' Ocf Nov r Dec r 1986: Jan" Feb" 1 260,810 298,344 328,074 356,927 344,656 368,747 411,404 424,993 399,645 451,546 494,250 528,284 509,696 520,539 575,762 583,615 66,674 79,481 93,721 102,021 96,290 100,448 114,071 115,396 86,442 99,348 113,623 118,438 118,290 120,476 132,208 136,407 67,231 74,926 79,963 86,777 89,339 97,858 107,755 114,495 23,368 25,529 24,914 27,089 28,059 33,041 38,817 42,851 43,863 49,397 55,049 59,688 61,279 64,817 68,939 71,645 102,694 111,098 116,346 127,201 126,497 139,381 157,845 165,324 50,136 54,108 55,117 60,327 58,952 66,928 77,142 82,875 52,558 56,990 61,229 66,874 67,545 72,453 80,703 82,449 1.44 1.43 1.45 1.44 1.51 1.38 1.34 1.36 1.43 1.44 1.42 1.41 1.41 1.34 1.39 1.40 416,889 418,531 420,779 425,640 427,623 418,247 422,496 429,716 428,578 425,958 431,989 434,246 576,985 579,993 579,721 580,021 578,384 580,685 581,210 579,266 579,299 582,237 582,665 583,615 114,654 114,310 114,619 117,612 118,753 110,777 114,273 116,847 115,231 113,944 116,425 118,301 132,247 133,631 133,865 133,968 134,014 135,479 135,841 135,500 134,967 135,531 135,115 136,407 110,511 111,960 111,857 114,519 114,232 113,599 114,430 116,276 119,118 114,785 115,433 116,861 40,644 41,310 41,283 42,980 42,787 42,444 42,768 44,209 46,748 42,355 42,631 43,882 69,867 70,650 70,574 71,539 71,445 71,155 71,662 72,067 72,370 72,430 72,802 72,979 158,953 160,216 159,685 160,004 159,470 159,528 160,333 159,078 160,302 164,262 165,557 165,324 78,149 78,642 79,033 79,071 78,679 79,143 79,205 78,042 78,425 81,668 83,056 82,875 80,804 81,574 80,652 80,933 80,791 80,385 81,128 81,036 81,877 82,594 82,501 82,449 1.38 1.39 1.38 1.36 1.35 1.39 1.38 1.35 1.35 1.37 1.35 1.34 1.44 1.43 1.43 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.37 1.35 1.43 1.43 1.41 432,681 586,426 116,739 138,250 72,704 72,554 167,819 84,720 83,099 1.36 1.43 r 116,982 116,812 See page 21 for manufacturing. Monthly average for year and total for month. Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. For annua! periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month. 2 3 4 20 r 44,278 44,258 T Note.—Retail trade data revised beginning 1978; therefore, total manufacturing and trade data revised beginning 1978, Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In January, manufacturers' shipments and inventories fell, and new and unfilled orders rose. In February, according to advance data, durable goods shipments and new orders fell. BILLKDNS OF DOL LARS* (RATIC3 SCALE) BULK )NS OF DOL ARS* (RATIC) SCALE) 240 360 320 SHIPME NTS 200 ^x"1 ? '— ^-"^ - TOTAL — 160 — 280 240 — nil RABLE GOOC•>s 120 — INVENT ORIES — as^ » p-T^ TOTAL —-— — 200 •• 5X1 80 160 •*£ =^ NONDL RABLE GOO DS D URABLE GO<DOS 120 60 Illllllllll 40 "7 80 Illllllllll NON DURABLE GC)ODS Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 60 BILLIC3NS OF DOL .ARS* (RATIC) SCALE) 240 40 NEWC)RDERS 200 I—V ^—*"1 160 Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll RATI O* 2.2 TOTAL DU RABLE GOOI)S 120 s~ 80 ~~^ -^ *"' .-A— V/"C"— INVENT ORY-SHIPW\ENTS RAT 0 2.0 V.x-«^' 1.8 1 h— \ NC NDURABLE (300DS ^"^-^^ 1.6 '•v 60 ^^ 1.4 — llllll|||ll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 40 1982 s 1983 1984 1985 r^.-i_ _^ ls 1986 1982 ir r'—-^—^ > 1.2 Illllllllll Illllllllll 1985 1984 1983 SEASONALLY ADJ STED OURCE: DEPARTM NT OF COMMERC U anufac turers new orders i Manufa turers' inven tones 2 Durabl goods Total Durable goods 1986 COUNCIL OF ECC3NOMIC ADVISERS Manufa cturers' shiprnents * Period — Illllllllll Illllllllll Nondurable goods Durable goods Total Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, nondefense Nondurable goods Manufacturers' unfilled orders 3 Manufacturers' inventory — shipments ratio 4 M llions of do lars, seasoilally adjust)?d 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985r 126,905 143,936 154,391 168,129 159,027 170,441 189,578 195,102 67,848 76,060 77,550 83,872 76,693 84,951 98,502 103,649 59,057 67,876 76,841 84,257 82,334 85,491 91,076 91,452 210,509 241,100 264,281 282,645 264,909 260,682 285,709 281,884 137,891 160,533 174,620 186,347 175,103 171,629 191,109 189,164 72,618 80,567 89,661 96,298 89,806 89,053 94,600 92,720 131,546 147,403 156,161 167,752 157,255 173,259 191,634 195,803 72,339 79,451 79,360 83,553 74,996 87,631 100,611 104,305 19,458 23,231 23,259 24,050 20,681 22,764 27,017 27,215 59,207 67,953 76,801 84,199 82,260 85,627 91,024 91,499 259,770 302,145 323,393 319,094 296,918 330,924 355,640 363,809 1.57 1.57 1985: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Get Nov Dec r 191,724 192,261 194,303 193,509 194,638 193,871 193,793 196,593 194,229 197,229 200,131 199,084 101,966 101,724 102,116 102,068 102,718 102,657 102,478 105,311 103,656 106,479 107,007 105,777 89,758 90,537 92,187 91,441 91,920 91,214 91,315 91,282 90,573 90,750 93,124 93,307 285,785 286,146 286,171 286,049 284,900 285,678 285,036 284,688 284,030 282,444 281,993 281,884 192,153 192,030 192,355 192,475 191,546 192,239 192,163 192,037 191,930 190,508 190,284 189,164 93,632 94,116 93,816 93,574 93,354 93,439 92,873 92,651 92,100 91,936 91,709 92,720 195,210 193,057 191,532 191,081 195,019 198,261 195,793 198,782 197,332 195,381 196,865 201,213 105,447 102,467 99,544 99,839 102,971 106,780 104,370 107,661 106,641 104,495 103,796 107,531 23,633 29,493 27,206 25,461 25,594 27,984 26,685 27,554 29,240 27,092 25,788 30,566 89,763 90,590 91,988 91,242 92,048 91,481 91,423 91,121 90,691 90,886 93,069 93,682 359,125 359,926 357,151 354,731 355,112 359,502 361,502 363,691 366,794 364,946 361,680 363,809 1.49 1.49 1.47 1.48 1.46 1.47 1.47 1.45 1.46 1.43 1.41 1.42 1986: Jan p Feb" 198,960 ' 105,874 105,307 93,086 280,357 188,518 91,839 201,399 24,553 28,856 92,940 366,248 1.41 1 2 3 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales. Book value, end of period, End of period. r 108,459 107,864 r 1.66 1.64 1.73 1.52 1.45 1.46 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In February, the producer price index for all finished goods fell 1.6 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished consumer foods fell 1.6 percent, while prices of other finished consumer goods fell 2.3 percent. Prices of capital equipment rose 0.1 percent. INDEX, 1967= lOOj 340 INDEX, 1967=1 320 300 280 260 260 240 240 220 200 1978 1985 1979 SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1986 COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Fin shed goods Intern ediate ma terials F nished go<)ds excluding consumer foo Is Period Total finished goods Consumer foods Cnide maten als Other Total Foodstuffs and feedstuffs 203.1 226.1 252.6 250.3 239.4 247.9 253.1 232.7 216.5 244.4 282.3 310.1 315.7 317.1 325.0 325.0 234.4 274.3 304.6 329.0 319.5 323.6 330.8 306.2 216.2 247.9 259.2 257.4 247.8 252.2 259.5 235.0 272.3 330.0 401.0 482.3 473.9 477.4 484.5 459.7 Foods Total Durable Nondurable Capital equipment 166.9 200.0 231.3 283.9 319.6 333.6 335.3 337.3 339.4 199.2 216.5 239.8 264.3 279.4 287.2 294.0 300.5 194.9 217.9 248.9 271.3 281.0 284.6 290.3 2&1.9 215.6 242.2 280.3 306.0 310.4 312.3 320.0 318.7 Consumer gc>ods Total Total Total finished consumer goods and feeds * Other 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985" 195.9 217.7 247.0 269.8 280.7 285.2 291.1 293.8 207.2 226.2 239.5 253.6 259.3 261.8 273.3 271.2 190.7 213.3 247.8 273.3 285.8 290.8 294.8 299.1 186.7 211.5 250.8 276.5 287.8 291.4 294.1 297.4 183.2 206.2 218.6 226.7 233.1 236.8 241.5 1985: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept c Ocf. Nov Dec 291.9 292.0 293.5 294.2 293.6 294.3 293.4 291.8 294.4 296.7 298.3 273.6 272.4 270.8 268.6 268.4 270.9 269.0 266.4 270.8 273.9 275.9 295.6 296.3 298.9 300.6 299.7 299.8 299.3 298.0 300.1 302.0 303.4 293.4 294.0 297.5 299.7 298.4 298.4 297.5 296.3 298.0 300.4 302.3 239.9 240.4 240.9 241.4 242.1 242.1 242.3 239.8 243.0 243.8 243.7 333.4 334.1 340.1 343.8 340.7 340.7 339.0 338.9 339.3 343.0 346.5 298.6 299.3 299.6 300.0 300.4 300.7 301.3 299.7 302.7 303.4 303.6 290.0 289.9 291.9 292.6 291.6 292.5 291.2 289.6 292.1 294.8 296.7 319.0 318.6 319.3 320.0 318.5 317.8 317.4 317.2 317.5 318.6 319.7 240.5 238.4 235.4 231.5 230.7 229.7 226.5 224.9 229.4 231.8 232.9 324.8 324.5 325.4 326.5 325.0 324.3 324.1 323.9 324.0 325.0 326.1 315.2 311.0 307.3 305.6 303.8 303.0 296.1 293.1 302.2 308.9 307.4 248.0 241.4 235.1 231.6 230.6 229.5 221.6 217.7 231.0 240.9 239.7 460.3 461.0 462.9 464.9 461.2 461.1 456.1 454.9 455.4 455.7 453.7 1986: 296.3 291.7 274.8 270.5 301.2 296.5 299.2 292.4 242.4 242.6 342.0 330.0 303.3 303.5 294.3 . 318.3 288.3 313.8 232.6 229.2 324.6 320.0 303.2 288.1 233.5 225.1 453.4 424.1 1978 1979 1980 1 Jan Feb Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 22 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In February, the consumer price index for all urban consumers fell 0.4 percent, seasonally adjusted (it fell 0.3 percent not seasonally adjusted). The index was 3.2 percent above its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 240 220 220 200 200 180 180 1986 1978 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967 — 100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Tr ansportati on Hou sing She Her Period All items * Food Total ' To till Renters' costs (Dec. 1982=100) Homeowners' costs (Dec. 1982=100) NSA Rel. imp.3 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb 1 100.0 195.4 217.4 246.8 272.4 289.1 298.4 311.1 322.2 317.4 318.8 320.1 321.3 322.3 322.8 323.5 324.5 325.5 326.6 327.4 328.4 327.5 Fuel and other utilities Apparel and upkeep Total J New cars Motor fuel Medical care Ener- gy 2 All items less food, energy, and shelter NSA 18.5 211.4 234.5 254.6 274.6 285.7 291.7 302.9 309.8 308.2 308.6 308.7 308.4 309.1 309.2 309.6 310.7 311.1 313.2 315.2 315.9 313.8 37.9 202.8 227.6 263.3 293.5 314.7 323.1 336.5 349.9 344.0 345.3 346.5 348.4 349.4 350.3 351.7 352.2 353.3 355.2 356.2 357.1 356.8 22.3 210.4 239.7 281.7 314.7 337.0 344.8 361.7 382.0 373.3 374.7 376.4 379.7 381.1 383.1 385.3 386.1 387.9 390.5 391.9 393.3 394.8 7.3 103.0 108.6 115.4 112.6 113.2 113.7 114.7 115.3 115.8 116.3 116.7 117.5 118.2 118.5 118.8 119.2 14.4 0.5 8.1 5.0 102.5 107.3 113.1 110.7 111.0 111.5 112.6 112.9 113.6 114.3 114.5 114.9 115.7 116.2 116.6 117.0 233.0 256.4 285.7 314.4 334.1 346.3 359.2 368.9 366.8 370.0 368.0 366.2 367.6 367.8 370.6 368.7 368.5 372.7 373.7 379.1 379.6 216.0 239.3 278.6 319.2 350.8 370.3 387.3 393.6 388.8 391.2 392.8 392.8 394.7 394.2 393.6 394.4 393.7 395.4 396.5 397.2 392.4 159.6 166.6 178.4 186.9 191.8 196.5 200.2 206.0 204.2 205.1 205.4 205.3 205.9 205.6 205.9 206.8 207.7 208.4 208.3 207.7 206.6 Includes items not shown separately. Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc. also included through 1982. 3 Relative importance, December 1985. 2 Maintenance and repairs 21.4 185.5 212.0 249.7 280.0 291.5 298.4 311.7 319.9 316.0 319.0 320.9 320.2 320.2 320.3 319.8 319.3 320.5 322.6 323.9 325.5 320.9 3.4 5.5 6.5 11.3 153.8 166.0 179.3 190.2 197.6 202.6 208.5 215.2 213.0 213.7 214.1 214.5 215.0 215.2 215.7 216.2 217.0 217.7 218.4 218.6 219.5 196.3 265.6 369.1 410.9 389.4 376.4 370.7 373.8 358.2 367.9 374.3 377.7 378.8 379.1 377.4 375.2 374.3 377.4 379.4 380.1 357.2 219.4 239.7 265.9 294.5 328.7 357.3 379.5 403.1 392.3 395.4 397.5 399.8 402.6 404.3 406.6 409.0 410.9 413.0 415.7 417.5 420.4 220.4 275.9 361.1 410.0 416.1 419.3 423.6 426.5 416.8 423.2 428.0 429.7 430.3 429.4 427.6 426.8 425.8 428.4 430.3 430.8 414.3 48.0 179.1 191.5 208.3 228.1 245.6 258.4 271.2 281.6 278.5 279.6 280.3 280.2 280.9 281.4 282.1 282.6 284.1 285.4 286.2 287.5 288.0 NOTE.—Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change1 from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by iYSA] Oh nge from pr ec-fding peri d Change from :} mont s earlier, ami lal rate Change from 6 monti s earlier, ann ial rate Consum er goods Consum -'t goods Consum ?r goods Period Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Total finished goods Excluding foods Foods equipment Total finished goods Exeluding foods Foods equipment Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Cha tge, Dec. o Dec., N SA 9.2 1978 8.5 11.7 7.4 7.5 1.4 2.1 2.3 3.5 .3 12.8 11.8 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985' 7.1 3.7 .6 1.7 1.8 7.9 8.8 17.5 7.8 11.1 13.5 11.4 14.2 8.5 4.2 9.2 4.0 1.6 2.1 .9 92 3.9 1.9 -.8 .8 2.1 1.8 2.7 Cl ange, mon th to mont h 0 1985: Fob Mar Apr May June Julv Aug Sept c Octr Nov ' Deo r 9 9 -.3 -.5 .9 .8 .5 — ./ -1.0 1.7 1.1 .7 .6 .8 .6 — .0 1.0 .2 .1 4 -1.0 — 2.3 -.1 .1 -1.6 0 -0.3 -3.3 2.2 3.2 -4.2 -7.1 — 5.7 -.1 .2 .1 .1 .1 .1 .2 1.2 .7 -.4 0 -.3 -.4 — .7 — 1.6 0.6 -0.2 -.4 -.6 -.8 -.1 .9 .2 ,Ian ' Feb 1986 -0.0 .0 .0 99 — 1.1 -2.4 8.9 6.1 1.2 -2.9 -2.8 9.2 -.5 7.5 4.0 2.7 2.8 15.0 8.3 5.3 1.6 .8 .1 2.6 6.0 -6.6 -4.9 -10.2 -0.1 -0.5 -1.2 -2.1 -3.8 -4.5 0.4 5.1 3.8 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.7 -.9 4.7 -2.9 — .1 .1 4.6 3.7 -.8 .1 .6 1.1 2 -1.4 .5 1.7 1.6 1.0 1.7 1.0 -.1 .6 -2.0 -3.3 -4.4 1.7 0 4.0 3.2 5.7 1.4 2.9 1.1 -1.2 2.5 2.4 3.1 2.8 3.3 2.6 .5 2.8 3.6 2.6 2.9 2.8 1.6 .3 .5 2.6 1.8 .3 2.1 2.3 .5 -3.4 .7 .2 .7 1.0 1.1 .9 .8 2 1.1 2.1 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 -.1 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted bv NSA] Tr nsportat on Housing Shelter Period All items ] Food Total ' Homeowners' eosts Renters' eosts Total ' pare] and upkeep Fuel and other utihties Total ' 9.0 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 13.3 12.4 11.8 10.2 10.2 8.9 3.9 3.8 4.0 3.8 4.3 3.1 2.6 3.8 2.7 Motor Medical car_ Energy2 and 9.9 11.5 5.9 3.2 7.7 6.2 8.5 8.8 8.0 17.4 15.1 16.0 13.6 14.5 5.5 6.8 3.6 1.6 2.9 2.0 2.9 18.2 14.7 11.0 7.4 52.2 18.9 10.1 10.0 12.5 11.0 37.4 18.1 11.9 — .5 3.0 6.4 6.1 6.7 — 1.6 0.4 2.7 1.7 .9 .3 .1 -.4 -.6 -.2 .8 .5 .8 .5 .6 .7 .4 .6 .6 .0 .0 .7 .2 .4 9.9 2.4 4.7 5.2 6.0 5.1 5.9 - 6.3 4.5 5.1 5.9 9.7 1.8 4.2 1.9 1.7 3.9 3.1 2.6 From previous (juar er From 3 months earlier From 6 months earlier From earlier NSA SA 15.2 13.7 10.2 3.6 3.5 4.2 4.3 items less food, energy, shelter C lange, D ecember to Dec( mber, P* 1978 New Adden dum: A!j ite ns, percent hange (annua rate) All Ap- 7.5 6.8 1.6 3.4 2.4 3.5 9.4 -6.5 — 1.7 -2.4 1.3 2 1.8 6.5 7.7 7.2 11.3 13.5 10.4 9.9 9.4 6.1 5.0 4.4 3.7 6.1 3.2 4.3 3.6 Chs nge, mo nth to ir onth 1985: Feb Mar Apr Mav June Julv Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb 0.3 .5 .3 -> 9 9 2 9 0.2 .1 .0 -.1 _2 .0 .1 .4 .1 0.5 .4 .3 .0 .3 .3 .4 .1 .4 .7 .6 .3 .5 .3 .3 -.4 9 — .7 .3 -.1 .4 .6 0.7 .4 .5 .9 .4 .5 .6 2 .5 0.7 .5 .4 .9 .5 .4 .4 .7 .4 .3 .7 .6 .3 .4 .4 .3 .3 l, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and mot 0.7 .3 .5 1.0 .3 .6 .6 .2 .3 .7 0.9 -0.3 .6 .4 0 .0 -.1 2 .4 .1 -.0 .3 -.1 .1 .4 .4 -0.1 .9 .6 9 0.5 .3 2 .2 9 0 .0 _ 2 2 .1 9 .4 .3 .4 .7 .3 — .0 A 2 .4 .3 .3 2 .3 .3. — 1.2 -.3 — .5 .5 .1 .4 .2 _ 9 fuel. Motor oil, coolant, -1.4 '4 -6.0 .7 -0.9 0.5 .4 .3 — .0 9 4 2 .2 2 4.0 -.2 .2 2.6 2.4 — .2 .5 .5 .3 4.3 3.1 4.5 5.3 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.4 2.8 2.9 3.6 3.8 5.1 1.2 4.1 2.9 1.5 1.1 .4 .1 .6 .4 .1 -3.8 .5 2 3.1 4.0 4.6 4.2 3.3 2.6 2.6 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.2 NOTE.—Data beginning January 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measuri for homeownership costs and therefore arc not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 24 3.2 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers fell 2.4 percent in February, while prices paid by farmers were unchanged. INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1977 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) 180 180 PRICES PAID 160 160 140 140 120 120 PRICES RECEIVED - 100 100 80 80 I l l l l l l l l l l l i m i l l l l l l l 6o 60 RATK yj 120 RA noi' 140 — —• — 100 r—^ p^7—-i^—-i_ 80 60 — —M i n i u m M i n i u m tiin|i|||i 1978 1979 , 1980 RATIO \ ^-» — 100 1 80 ~— — «i -^~^~ V ^ llllllll||I 1 111 1111111 I l l l l l l l l l l I l l l l l l f III IIIIMMIII I l l t l l l l l l l 1985 , 1981 1982 1986 1983 , 1984 I/RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1977 = 100] Prices paid by farmer s Pri ,es received by farmers Period Livestock and products All farm products 146 136 157 160 164 163 124 128 126 126 123 123 115 112 111 116 118 145 141 136 134 134 130 128 128 134 138 137 164 164 164 164 164 163 162 162 162 162 162 159 159 159 159 158 156 156 155 154 155 155 154 153 153 152 151 150 149 148 148 149 149 82 82 80 79 78 78 75 75 76 78 79 113 109 135 132 163 163 156 155 150 149 76 74 124 147 144 143 145 141 1985: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 135 134 132 130 128 127 122 121 123 127 128 1986: Jan Feb 124 121 Includes items not shown separately. Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes and wage rates. 109 106 107 97 93 85 84 86 79 105 116 125 134 121 128 139 121 1 108 123 138 150 Ratio 2 Production items 108 125 138 148 150 153 155 151 115 132 134 139 133 135 142 129 2 Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates 125 139 151 155 159 161 157 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1978 All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates * NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1977= 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES Growth in Ml and M2 accelerated in February while growth in M3 slowed. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,400 3,200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,400 3,200 2,800 2,400 2,000 1,600 1,200 400 400 300 300 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS - AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period Dec ' Dec ' Dee r Dec " Dec ' Dec r Dec ' Decr Feb ' Mar r Apr May r . June r July1; Aug Sept r Gel' Nov r Dec r 1986: Jan ' Feb" 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1985: Ml M2 M3 L Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' cbecks, and other checkable deposits (OCDs) Ml plus overnight KPs and Eurodollars, MMMF balances (general purpose and broker/dealer), MMDAs, and savings and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, term RPs, term Eurodollars, and institution-only MMMF balances M3 plus other liquid assets 363.0 388.7 414.2 441.1 479.9 527.1 558.5 626.5 569.3 572.2 575.7 582.5 590.9 596.2 604.8 611.5 614.1 620.0 626.5 627.1 630.9 1,388.9 1,497.5 1,630.3 1,792.8 1,952.6 2,186.0 2,373.8 2,565.5 2,421.8 2,429.4 2,434.4 2,451.9 2,479.0 2,496.1 2,515.4 2,529.5 2,538.3 2,550.7 2,565.5 2,568.4 2,576.1 1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. 26 1,646.4 1,803.2 1,987.4 2,233.6 2,443.5 2,697.3 2,986.6 3,200.2 3,033.8 3,046.6 3,052.0 3,069.9 3,098.0 3,113.3 3,131.4 3,151.5 3,166.1 3,181.6 3,200.2 3,222.1 3,238.6 1,909.0 2,114.8 2,323.3 2,593.7 2,850.1 3,163.5 3,532.3 3,835.3 3,588.8 3,612.7 3,618.5 3,636.5 3,664.7 3,683.3 3,710.8 3,739.8 3,761.6 3,800.0 3,835.3 Debt Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors (monthly average) ' 3,169.5 3,554.5 3,894.6 4,269.6 4,661.1 5,191.9 5,951.9 6,802.7 6,075.1 6,131.7 6,194.5 6,259.0 6,323.5 6,392.5 6,461.8 6,526.7 6,594.2 6,681.5 6,802.7 6,905.7 Perce nt change from year or 6 months earlier 2 Ml 8.3 7.1 6.6 6.5 8.8 9.8 6.0 12.2 8.2 8.0 9.7 10.5 11.9 12.2 12.9 14.2 13.8 13.3 12.4 10.6 8.8 NOTE.—See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. M2 8.0 7.8 8.9 10.0 8.9 12.0 8.6 8.1 11.7 10.6 9.8 9.0 9.1 8.2 7.9 8.4 8.7 8.2 7.1 5.9 4.9 M3 11.8 9.5 10.2 12.4 9.4 10.4 10.7 7.2 11.1 10.2 8.8 7.9 7.6 6.7 6.5 7.0 7.6 7.4 6.7 7.1 7.0 Debt 13.3 12.1 9.6 9.6 9.2 11.4 14.6 14.3 14.5 14.4 14.2 13,5 12.9 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.3 14.0 15.7 16.7 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Other • Period Demand deposits Currency checkable deposits (OCDs) Overnight repurchase agreements (RPs), net, plus overnight Eurodollars NSA 1978: Dec 97.6 1979: Dee r .. 106.4 r 1980: Dec .. 116.7 1981: Dec r .. 124.1 1982: Dec r .. 134.3 1983: Dec ''.. 148.3 1984: Dec T .. 158.5 1985: Dec 170.6 1985: Feb 160.7 Mar 161.3 Apr 161.9 163.2 May June 164.4 July 165.3 Aug 166.9 Sept 167.7 Oct 168.7 Nov 169.8 Dec 170.6 1986: Jan r. 171.9 Feb" 172.9 Money market mutua 1 fund hala nces General purpose and broker/ dealer NSA Institution only Monev market deposit accounts (MMDAs) Savings deposits NSA NSA 150.6 185.2 138.2 167.5 T 176.5 3.1 9.5 15.2 38.0 51.1 43.2 62.7 r 64.6 0.0 .0 .0 .0 43.2 379.2 417.0 512.1 482.0 423.9 401.4 344.8 253.5 261.1 265.3 234.6 237.9 242.7 248.4 271.5 8.5 17.4 28.0 78.0 103.4 131.3 146.3 178.5 20.3 21.2 28.3 35.9 38.8 53.8 56.3 r 69.2 251.2 251.4 251.8 255.4 r 259.0 260.4 263.1 266.4 266.0 267.8 271.5 152.2 154.1 156.5 158.4 161.8 164.8 169.0 171.5 173.6 176.6 178.5 64.6 63.3 57.8 61.3 60.8 60.7 r 63.6 r 64.1 r 64.6 r 65.7 r 69.2 175.1 177.6 176.2 172.2 175.4 175.8 176.8 176.7 177.0 r !76.8 r 176.5 62.2 59.5 59.6 63.5 67.1 65.0 63.6 62.3 63.3 64.5 r 64.6 268.9 269.1 180.4 183.0 67.2 67.0 177.7 180.9 66.8 67.2 6.4 33.4 61.6 Small denomination time deposits > Large denomination time deposits ' 357.9 306.6 289.7 303.6 635.3 730.2 825.1 852.8 785.2 887.5 880.3 195.1 222.1 259.0 301.8 327.8 329.9 413.9 436.4 450.5 460.2 462.5 466.4 478.1 487.2 495.2 499.8 504.2 509.6 512.1 289.9 289.7 289.0 290.8 293.6 296.7 299.7 300.3 302.3 303.7 303.6 885.2 885.0 887.6 889.5 890.3 888.0 880.9 878.3 875.7 876.0 880.3 416.9 421.0 425.9 425.0 422.7 418.3 r 421.0 r 425.6 r 429.7 432.9 436.4 515.8 516.5 304.0 304.9 886.1 891.1 447.8 451.0 1 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. 521.5 Term repurchase agreements (RPs) Term Eurodollars (net) NSA NSA 26.6 29.5 34.0 36.0 34.5 51.8 62.2 r 65.7 31.8 44.7 50.3 67.5 81.7 91.5 83.1 r 77.2 81.3 84.7 80.9 r 81.4 r 79.2 r 58.4 58.7 59.8 r 57.7 r 57.1 r 55.7 r 57.1 r 58.5 r 59.5 r 63.0 r 65.7 r r 68.5 70.4 Shortterm Treasury securities Bankers' acceptances Commercial paper 80.3 79.6 72.3 67.8 68.0 71.2 74.3 79.5 81.1 107.8 133.4 149.6 184.4 214.9 266.0 304.4 22.0 27.2 32.1 39.9 44.3 44.5 43.6 41.1 79.2 97.0 98.1 102.8 109.9 135.6 161.8 210.2 74.9 75.3 75.7 76.1 76.5 76.7 77.2 78.0 78.5 79.0 79.5 270.4 274.8 276.0 277.4 282.6 r 279.9 r 278.1 r 281.3 r 281.4 45.0 46.3 45.9 44.5 42.8 42.2 42.2 42.5 43.9 43.1 41.1 164.8 169.8 168.9 168.6 164.7 171.1 182.0 186.6 191.7 196.8 210.2 Savings bonds r r 78.8 80.0 80.2 r 79.4 r 79.8 r 77.2 r r r 299.5 304.4 75.9 78.7 Travelers checks are a component of money stock but are not shown here. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. NOTE.—See note p. 26. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Net change in in stalhnent ere dit outstandiiig Ins tallment credit outstanding (end of perio d) Period Total Automobile Revolving Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec '' 296,290 312,907 328,275 376,006 452,372 541,848 112,134 119,796 124,938 142,497 172,461 54,900 60,309 65,019 76,453 94,940 209,883 1985: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec ' 459,595 468,636 476,978 485,248 494,290 499,517 505,764 511,490 523,021 531,438 536,230 541,848 1986: Jan 548,724 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1 18,783 116,628 19,890 22,491 23,773 24,552 26,478 175,348 178,546 181,937 185,425 189,217 191,903 194,268 196,474 203,678 207,472 208,588 209,883 96,897 99,424 102,055 104,181 106,610 106,537 107,393 108,329 110,303 112,345 114,960 116,628 212,975 118,392 For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding Mobile home Other 110,473 112,912 115,827 Total 16,617 Automobile 7,662 5,142 ' 17,559 Revolving 5,409 133,283 160,419 188,859 15,368 47,731 76,366 89,476 29,964 37,422 4,710 11,434 18,487 21,688 24,393 24,675 24,664 24,882 25,068 25,264 25,588 25,787 25,955 26,136 26,137 26,478 162,957 165,991 168,322 170,760 173,395 175,813 178,515 180,900 183,085 185,485 186,545 188,859 7,223 9,041 8,342 8,270 9,042 5,227 6,247 5,726 11,531 8,417 4,792 5,618 2,887 3,198 3,391 3,488 3,792 2,686 2,365 2,206 7,204 3,794 1,116 1,295 1,957 2,527 2,631 2,126 2,429 -73 856 936 1,974 2,042 2,615 1,668 26,443 190,914 6,876 3,092 1,764 Mobile home 1,107 2,601 1,282 779 1,926 1 Other 2,439 2,915 17,456 27,136 28,440 218 186 196 324 199 168 181 1 341 2,538 3,034 2,331 2,438 2,635 2,418 2,702 2,385 2,185 2,400 1,060 2,314 -35 2,055 -159 282 — 11 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstern. 27 BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES, AND RESERVES Commercial and industrial loans were unchanged in January. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 — ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 -LOANS AND LEASES 800 800 600 — 600 400 400 U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 200 200 160 160 OTHER SECURITIES 120 120 80 80 60 I l l l l l l l l l l Illllllllll 1978 Illllllllll I l l l l l l l l l l 11111111111 1979 1982 1981 1980 1984 1983 1985 • SEASONALLY ADJUSTED. SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 60 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Al commercial ban ts 1 Depo itory institutio ns 3 Period 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1985: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan" Feb" Total loans and securities 1,013.8 1,135.4 1,239.7 1,307.4 1,400.5 1,553.0 1,716.8 1,895.5 1,726.3 1,744.8 1,761.6 1,768.8 1,788.5 1,802.7 1,819.0 1,828.8 1,841.3 1,844.4 1,869.6 1,895.5 1,919.6 Total 2 746.9 849.1 914.5 967.4 1,032.8 1,122.7 1,316.5 1,450.3 1,323.4 1,337.7 1,355.6 1,367.1 1,380.0 1,391.0 1,402.1 1,409.2 1,416.9 1,419.7 1,433.9 1,450.3 1,465.5 Commercial and industrial loans 246.1 291.1 326.9 355.1 391.5 412.8 469.0 493.9 469.2 474.2 481.2 481.9 484.3 484.3 484.1 485.7 487.2 487.0 490.6 493.9 494.1 U.S. Government securities Total 137.6 144.4 170.9 179.6 202.7 260.8 260.3 270.7 260.3 266.0 267.1 261.4 266.3 267.1 271.6 271.4 273.1 270.0 275.0 270.7 264.6 1 Data are prorated averages of Wednesday figures for domestically chartered banks and averages of month-end data for foreign-related institutions. 2 Excludes loans to commercial hanks in the United States. 3 Data are averages of daily figures. 28 Bom>wings (millions of dollars, unad usted) B. 3Serves adjust sd for changes iii res erve reqmrem ants Loans and leases 129.2 141.9 154.4 160.4 165.0 169.6 140.0 174.5 142.6 141.1 138.9 140.2 142.2 144.5 145.4 148.2 151.3 154.8 160.7 174.5 189.6 27.91 29.20 31.04 32.10 34.28 36.14 39.08 45.19 39.64 40.43 40.47 40.71 41.32 42.18 42.61 43.19 43.51 43.65 44.38 45.19 45.37 45.82 borrowed 27.04 27.73 29.3d 31.46 33.65 35.36 35.90 43.87 38.24 39.14 38.88 39.39 39.99 40.97 41.50 42.12 42.22 42.46 42.64 43.87 r 44.59 44.93 Required 27.67 28.76 30.52 31.78 33.78 35.58 38.23 44.13 38.89 39.53 39.71 39.97 40.52 41.27 41.75 42.37 42.84 42.90 43.45 44.13 44.25 44.72 Total 868 1,473 1,690 636 634 774 3,186 1,318 1,395 1,289 1,593 1,323 1,334 1,205 1,107 1,073 1,289 1,187 1,741 1,318 770 884 Seasonal 135 81 116 54 33 96 113 56 62 71 88 135 165 151 167 221 203 172 107 56 36 56 NOTE.—Data beginning January 1984 are not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods, largely because beginning January 1984 certain obligations of States and political subdivisions are included in loans rather than in other securities. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External Period Total Cr edit market ft nds Internal 1 Total Total Other 2 Total Capital expenditures 3 Increase in financial assets Discrepancy (sources less uses) Securities and mortgages Loans and short-term paper 61.3 68.2 55.5 49.2 3.6 62.3 57.8 27.8 309.0 362.5 341.6 349.6 283.6 395.1 457.6 430.9 216.9 238.3 244.1 286.3 256.3 271.4 376.3 367.2 92.0 124.3 97.5 63.3 27.3 123.8 81.4 63.7 15.5 -8.5 7.0 31.2 45.8 40.0 53.6 42.6 1978 r. 1979 '. 1980 r. 1981 r. 1982 r. 1983 ' 1984 '. 1985'' 324.5 354.0 348.6 380.8 329.4 435.1 511.3 473.5 182.3 197.6 200.1 239.5 242.3 288.1 338.1 370.4 142.2 156.5 148.5 141.3 87.1 147.0 173.1 103.1 81.0 88.2 93.0 92.2 83.5 84.7 115.4 75.3 33.3 21.0 52.1 21.8 44.0 57.3 -11.2 11.7 47.7 67.3 40.9 70.4 39.5 27.4 126.5 63.6 1984: I ' II T. III r IV '. 532.6 521.1 462.7 528.7 324.8 334.4 343.9 349.6 207.8 186.7 118.8 179.1 113.9 92.5 85.2 169.8 -27.8 -57.6 .5 40.3 141.7 150.1 84.7 129.5 93.8 94.3 33.6 9.4 491.9 468.1 394.5 476.0 356.6 381.8 385.5 381.1 135.3 86.3 9.0 94.9 40.7 53.0 68.2 52.6 1985: I ' II' III r IV 423.9 462.9 481.5 525.5 358.3 364.6 382.7 376.1 65.6 98.3 98.8 149.4 64.8 74.2 56.0 106.3 -13.4 31.6 11.2 17.5 78.2 42.6 44.8 88.8 7 24.0 42.9 43.1 390.5 418.8 441.8 472.2 356.7 366.0 365.5 380.8 33.8 52.8 76.3 91.4 33.5 44.0 39.7 53.3 3 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstem. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars, except as noted] C urrent liabiliti s Curren assets End of period Total Cash US Govern- seeurities QFE-FEB series: 2 1978 1979 1980 r 1981 r 1982 r 1983 r 1984 r 1983: III r IV 1984: I r II r III r IV 1985: l r II r Ill" 1 1,043.7 1,214.8 1,328.3 1,419.6 1,437.1 1,575.9 1,703.0 1,537.3 1,575.9 1,619.5 1,650.0 1,685.9 1,703.0 1,715.9 1,725.2 1,750.5 105.5 118.0 127.0 135.6 147.8 171.8 173.6 155.0 171.8 167.6 164.9 161.3 173.6 167.9 170.6 178.6 17.2 16.7 18.7 17.7 23.0 31.0 36.2 27.5 31.0 35.4 37.2 33.0 36.2 34.7 34.1 31.1 Notes arid accounts receivable Invento- 388.0 459.0 507.5 532.5 517.4 583.0 633.1 567.5 583.0 606.4 622.6 639.1 633.1 647.4 648.5 653.2 Total current assets divided by total current liabilities. Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations, Effective mid-1982, responsibility for the Quarterly Financial Report was transferred to the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census from the Federal Trade Commission. 2 431.8 505.1 543.0 584.0 579.0 603.4 656.9 600.8 603.4 622.2 632.5 659.3 656.9 664.7 663.7 670.1 Other current assets 101.1 116.0 132.1 149.7 169.8 186.7 203.2 186.6 186.7 187.9 192.9 193.2 203.2 201.1 208.3 217.4 Total 669.5 807.3 890.6 971.3 986.0 1,059.6 1,163.6 1,040.2 1,059.6 1,093.1 1,126.3 1,155.0 1,163.6 1,171.5 1,176.0 1,203.8 Notes and accounts payable 383.0 460.8 514.4 547.1 550.7 595.7 647.8 571.0 595.7 601.9 623.4 642.2 647.8 635.3 647.3 664.2 Other current liabilities Net working capital 286.5 346.5 376.2 424.1 435.3 374.3 407.5 437.8 448.3 451.1 463.9 515.8 469.2 463.9 491.2 502.9 512.9 515.8 536.2 528.7 539.5 516.3 539.5 497.1 516.3 526.5 523.7 530.8 539.5 544.4 549.3 546.7 Current ratio l 1.559 1.505 1.492 1.462 1,458 1.487 1.464 1.478 1.487 1.482 1.465 1.460 1.464 1.465 1,467 1.454 NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1980. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census), and Federal Trade Commission. INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates fell in March. PER CENT PER ANNU SA 16 S I /yi1 ? : i i/A ;.••/ i ,; / ; i ': : •• \ / -w// n u* --i . •; M/ ' 1 '\ /I t : • V j ' 1 j i / (MOODY'S) \ \ > X / -/ \ ' \ / \ '•-. \ A / '-\ x <•/ - L . 1 /N \/" 10 \ \ \ ; • / \ ,• .; 1 / ^' -DISCOUNT— IT /\ 8 RATE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK j—y r?" I/ ••-•' 6 4 1 t*' \ \ \ I, 12 \ \ TRE «.SURY E ILLS i, i 14 ND5 '' 5 !' J j co RPORATE Aaa K ' / i : ••/•-, / ' '. L : ' i rf J; , p/ A F* y j rPT 12 ^' \1 \ L.' —r-lrtHr f : rn jj 8 PERCENT PER ANN UM 16 t u.. - 1 '+ ' 6 •JM 1 1 1 i i i i i I 11! 1I ! I M ! i i !i i it tiill i !i ii t i 1 1 1 1980 1979 1978 198) 1 1i 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1982 mill 1 1 II 1984 1983 1 1 1 1 1 M MM,r COUNCIL C F ECONOM C SOURCE; SEE TABLE BEL DW 4 19 86 1985 ADVISERS [Percent per annum] U.S. T reasury security _irields Period 11.506 14.029 10.686 8.63 9.58 7.48 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: 1986: 3-month bills {new issues) J Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar" Week ended: 1986: Mar 1 8 15 22 29 1 8.22 8.57 • 8.00 7.56 7.01 7.05 7.18 7.08 7.17 7.20 7.07 7.04 7.03 6.59 6.96 6.92 6.55 6.52 6.36 Constant ir aturities 3-year 2 10-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard3 & Poor's) 30 Prime commercial paper, 6 months * Discount rate (N.Y. F.R. Bank)5 Prime rate charged 5by banks New-home mortgage yields (FHLBB)6 15.27 12.66 14.70 15.14 12.57 12.38 11.55 14.44 12.92 10.45 11.89 9.64 11.46 13.91 13.00 11.10 12.44 10.62 8.51 11.23 11.57 9.47 10.15 8.18 11.94 14.17 13.79 12.04 12.71 11.37 12.29 14.76 11.89 8.89 10.16 8.01 11.77 13.41 11.02 8.50 8.80 7.69 10.55 11.05 10.49 9.75 9.05 9.18 9.31 9.37 9.25 8.88 8.40 8.41 8.10 7.32 11.51 11.86 11.43 10.85 10.16 10.31 10.33 10.37 10.24 9.78 9.26 9.19 8.70 7.80 9.66 9.79 9.48 9.08 8.78 8.90 9.18 9.37 9.24 8.64 8.51 12.13 12.56 12.23 11.72 10.94 10.97 11.05 11.07 11.02 10.55 10.16 8.69 9.23 8.47 7.88 7.38 7.57 7.74 7.86 7.79 7.69 7.62 8.00-8.00 8.00-8.00 8.00-8.00 8.00-7.50 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.00 10.00- 9.50 9.50- 9.50 9.50- 9.50 9.50- 9.50 9.50- 9.50 9.50- 9.50 9.50- 9.50 8.06 7.44 7.07 10.05 9.67 9.02 7.62 7.54 7.08 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.50 7.50- 9.50- 9.50 9.50- 9.50 9.50- 7.91 7.51 7.26 7.29 8.29 8.01 7.72 7.80 6.98 6.88 6.81 7.34 7.25 9.29 9.08 8.98 9.03 7.48 7.27 7.04 7.01 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00- 9.509.509.009.00 9.00- Bank-discount basis. Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department, 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Series excludes public utility issues for January 17, 1984 through October 11, 1984 due to lack of appropriate issues. 2 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) 4 18.87 14.86 10.79 12.04 9.93 12.21 11.92 12.05 12.01 11.75 11.34 11.24 11.17 11.09 11.01 10.94 * 10.89 10.69 9.50 9.00 9.00 9.00 5 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Feder al Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices rose again in March. INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 140 INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 140 130 — 120 110 — 100 90 — 80 70 60 —i 50 50 40 40 1986 PERC ENT ENT 20 20 EARNIN<3S-PRICE RATIC3 ON COMMO N STOCKS (S &P) 15 -* /• 10 ^HX 111 V. 1 1 1 1978 1 1 ! 1979 1 1 1 1980 ^ ^^ 1982 -" *^ --^' I 1 1 1983 1 1 1 1981 15 1 1 1 1984 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE A •JD STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION Dividendprice ratio 891.41 932.92 884.36 1,190.34 1,178.48 1,328.23 118.78 128.05 119.71 160.41 160.46 186.84 5.26 5.20 5.81 4.40 4.64 4.25 53.44 53.91 55.51 57.32 59.61 59.68 56.99 55.93 55.84 59.07 61.69 109.58 107.59 109.39 115.31 118.47 119.85 114.68 110.21 112.36 122.83 128.86 1,283.23 1,268.83 1,266.36 1,279.40 1,314.00 1,343.17 1,326.18 1,317.95 1,351.58 1,432.88 1,517.02 180.88 179.42 180.62 184.90 188.89 192.54 188.31 184.06 186.18 197.45 207.26 4.30 4.37 4.37 4.31 4.21 4.14 4.23 4.32 4.28 4.06 3.88 137.13 144.03 152.51 62.46 65.18 67.98 132.36 142.13 153.74 1,534.86 1,652.73 1,754.12 208.19 219.37 231.98 3.90 3.72 3.50 145.74 147.86 147.78 152.27 154.76 155.93 126.20 126.00 125.92 128.67 129.26 130.52 66.05 66.64 66.96 68.55 68.11 68.39 144.86 146.23 149.16 154.38 156.02 155.82 1,676.89 1,702.18 1,693.24 1,748.18 1,785.49 1,798.46 222.26 225.17 224.97 232.11 235.19 236.58 3.69 3.62 3.63 3.50 3.45 3.43 Week ended: 1986: Feb 22 Mar 1 8 15 22 29 128.07 129.70 130.00 133.85 135.45 136.29 120.71 119.64 119.93 121.88 124.11 126.94 124.92 122.35 123.65 130.53 136.77 Average of daily closing prices. Includes all the" stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. Includes 30 stocks. 4 Includes 500 stocks. 5 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings- Finance Dow-Jones industrial average 3 Standard & Poor's composite index (194143=10) 4 64.25 73.52 71.99 95.34 89.28 114.21 78.70 85.44 78.18 107.45 108.01 123.79 3 CONOMIC ADVISERS 37.35 38.91 39.75 47.00 46.44 56.75 68.10 74.02 68.93 92.63 92.46 108.09 104.73 103.92 104.66 107.00 109.52 111.64 109.09 106.62 107.57 113.93 119.33 120.16 126.43 133.77 •s 1986 60.61 72.61 60.41 89.36 85.63 104.11 101.76 98.30 96.47 99.66 105.79 111.67 109.92 104.96 103.72 108.61 113.52 115.72 124.18 128.49 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Get Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar" 1 Utility 1 1 1 Common st Dck 5yields (perce n t ) Period 2 1 1 1985 ; Nevv York Stock Ex( hangc indexes (T ec. 31, 1965 — 5 O) 2 Industrial 1 COUNCIL OF Co mmon stock price S Composite . Earningsprice ratio 12.66 11.96 11.60 8.03 10.02 9.07 8.12 8.03 price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Sf,andard & Poor's Corporation. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first 5 months of fiscal 1986, there was a deficit of $106.2 billion compared with a deficit of $100.5 billion a year earlier. The deficit is estimated at $202.8 billion for fiscal 1986 and at $143.6 billion for fiscal 1987. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,000 1,000 RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS ^ 900 900 800 800 "OUTLAYS 1 700 700 600 600 RECEIPTS y 500 500 400 400 -100 -100 -200 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1986 1985 1987 FISCAL YEARS ]/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. COUNCIi OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES; DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Outlays 5.0 -7.9 .2 .3 914.3 1,003.9 1,147.0 1,381.9 1,576.7 715.1 794.4 929.4 1,141.8 1,312.6 176.8 184.7 198.6 9.4 13.2 15.7 1,827.5 2,112.0 2,320.6 1,509.9 1,714.0 1,855.7 71.0 72.1 1.9 5.1 1,702.8 1,983.4 1,405.4 1,629.0 369.1 403.5 2.0 -3.2 -1.4 -3.9 -4.3 -2.0 403.9 469.1 474.3 453.2 500.4 476.6 543.0 594.3 661.2 686.0 -72.7 -73.9 120.0 -208.0 185.6 113.2 130.2 143.5 147.3 166.1 114.3 135.2 151.4 147.1 165.8 -1.1 -212.3 -202.8 -143.6 547.9 579.2 636.1 769.5 795.2 795.4 -221.6 -216.0 -159.3 186.2 197.9 214.3 -100.5 - 106.2 217.7 230.2 320.1 341.4 -102.4 -111.3 72.9 77.1 1977 1978 1979 271.9 302.2 76.6 328.5 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 851.8 -73.8 -78.9 -127.9 -207.8 -185.3 1985 1986 * 1987 1 734.1 777.1 850.4 946.3 979.9 994.0 Cumulative total, first 5 months: Fiscal year 1985 Fiscal year 1986 290.7 307.3 391.2 413.5 1 Estimates. NOTE.—Data fron Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1987, Office of Man- Held by the public 396.9 480.3 498.3 551.8 610.9 644.6 60.4 69.6 19.4 80.7 89.7 100.0 216.6 231.7 63.2 278.7 314.2 365.3 Total 544.1 631.9 646.4 709.1 780.4 833.8 66.4 18.0 76.8 85.4 98.0 -53.2 -73.7 -14.7 -53.6 -59.2 -40.2 Receipts Surplus or deficit (-) 62.5 332.3 371.8 96.0 409.2 458.7 503.5 32 Surplus of deficit (-) 55.3 -70.5 -13.3 -49.7 -54.9 -38.2 279.1 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 1975 1976 Transition quarter Gross Fee eral debt (end of period) Off-budget On-budget Total Fiscal year or period agement and Budget, except cumulative monthly totals from Monthly Treasury Statement. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION According to the budget submitted in early February, total Federal receipts are estimated at $777.1 billion for fiscal 1986 and at $850.4 billion for fiscal 1987. Outlays are estimated at $979.9 billion for fiscal 1986 and at $994.0 billion for fiscal 1987. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 400 — 400 INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES RECEIPTS!/ 300 300 200 200 "*"""* TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS CORPORATION INCOME TAXES 100 100 0 0 700 -OUTLAYS^/ - 700 NONDEFENSE 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 NATIONAL DEFENSE 200 200 100 100 1978 1979 1981 1980 1982 1984 1983 1985 1986 1987 FISCAL YEARS J/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] 0n-budget a nd off-bu( *et receip Fiscal year Total Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes Social insurance taxes and On-bud get and of -budget o itlays s Nations 1 defense Other Total Total butions 1976 1977 1978 1979 298.1 90.8 106.5 121.0 138.9 34.3 36.6 37.7 40.8 64.6 61.1 49.2 37.0 56.9 157.8 182.7 201.5 61.3 70.9 86.7 355.6 399.6 463.3 131.6 157.6 181.0 217.8 41.4 54.9 60.0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 517.1 244.1 599.3 285.9 297.7 288.9 298.4 1985 1986 ' 1987 > 734.1 777.1 334.5 353.7 386.0 1 617.8 600.6 666.5 850.4 65.7 371.8 89.6 88.1 409.2 458.7 503.5 97.2 104.5 116.3 95.3 102.3 113.7 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 134.0 157.5 185.3 209.0 239.4 50.6 69.5 69.3 65.6 71.8 851.8 265.2 280.4 302.8 73.0 72.1 74.9 946.3 979.9 994.0 Estimates. NOTE.—Data shown here exclude the transition quarter. AH data from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1987, Office of Management and Budget. Department of Defense, military International affairs 6.4 6.4 Health 15.7 17.3 18.5 Medicare Income securi'J Social security Net interest 15.8 60.8 61.0 61.5 66.4 73.9 85.1 93.9 104.1 26.7 29.9 35.4 42.6 82.8 93.0 114.7 119.6 Other 7.5 7.5 20.5 19.3 22.8 26.5 209.9 227.4 131.0 153.8 180.7 204.4 220.8 12.7 13.1 12.3 11.8 15.9 23.2 26.9 27.4 28.6 30.4 32.1 39.1 46.6 52.6 57.5 86.5 99.7 107.7 122.6 112.7 118.5 139.6 156.0 170.7 178.2 52.5 68.7 85.0 89.8 111.1 131.4 133.5 125.4 122.3 118.6 252.7 265.8 282.2 245.4 258.4 274.3 16.2 17.1 18.6 33.5 35.7 35.0 65.8 68.7 70.2 128.2 118.1 118.4 188.6 200.1 212.2 129.4 142.7 148.0 131.8 131.7 109.3 Data for first 5 months of fiscal 1985 and fiscal 1986 not yet available on basis comparable with other data shown here. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the fourth quarter of 1985, according to preliminary estimates, Federal receipts rose $15.5 billion (annual rate) and expenditures rose $38.4 billion, yielding a deficit of $224.2 billion. BILL1O NS OF DOLLAR SEASC NALLY ADJUSTS B UIONS OF DO LLARS , ^ 1,000 ,' AN ••JUAL RATES 1,000 -^ '"' 900 — /•* 800 - EXPENDIT JRE S — \ — __-' r^T 700 400 f 500 400 1 \ 900 .*•* . — •._- — - 7" . ,,,-«- 800 / •r* ^S ---' ^ ^—' ^ 700 ,x ^^_ — — 600 RECEIPTS 500 __~> J ~"~'""\ ^cd_l 400 1 1 1 1 1 \ 1 \ 1 \ 1 •^ SURPLUS OR [DEFICIT (- ) 0 !i1 IIIIIim \ iiiI%il1%l%1 1 I mwvava "*• V^V/A 1 -100 -200 1977 1979 1978 19(J3 1982 1981 1980 19 34 0 -100 -200 1985 CALENDAR YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Governme it receipts Period Total Fiscal year: 1982 1983 1984 1985 Calendar year: 1982 1983 1984 1985 '. 1982: m IV 1983: I n m IV 1984: I n m IV 1985: I n mr TV 643.3 644.6 710.1 773.1 635.3 658.1 725.1 785.4 630.3 633.1 636.3 665.2 659.7 671.1 709.4 721.8 727.1 742.1 789.7 754.9 790.7 806.2 Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals 310.0 292.9 304.0 52.1 54.5 73.6 50.0 50.2 345.2 67.6 304.5 295.0 311.3 350.7 298.1 303.0 297.1 304.2 286.2 292.5 297.8 303.9 315.7 327.8 363.9 321.3 355.4 362.1 49.0 59.3 74.4 67.7 50.1 46.4 Personal tax and nontax receipts 48.1 51.6 55.8 57.0 47.1 47.6 46.3 52.8 53.7 53.6 46.5 58.2 66.4 66.1 78.9 80.1 69.4 69.2 54.6 55.8 56.7 56.2 65.9 65.0 68.9 71.1 55.5 60.2 55.4 56.9 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 34 54.9 56.4 Federal (government expenditur es Contributions for social insurance Total 231.1 247.0 277.6 304.0 833.5 875.6 963.2 233.7 252.2 283.6 309.9 235.0 236.1 246.5 250.1 253.4 258.8 278.1 282.0 285.4 288.9 304.4 308.4 311.0 315.9 781.2 837.5 898.0 984.7 789.1 835.7 824.2 835.8 839.4 850.6 867.2 884.9 905.2 934.7 952.4 964.0 992.0 1,030.4 755.9 Purchases of goods and services 264.4 288.2 299.5 342.2 272.7 284.8 312.9 355.4 275.3 293.2 287.1 287.0 286.0 279.2 285.6 314.8 318.5 332.9 334.4 337.8 364.8 384.7 Transfer payments 312.8 347.4 352.2 373.0 324.1 348.5 355.1 379.8 329.1 347.4 344.4 350.8 346.6 352.3 350.5 351.9 356.2 361.9 374.1 376.7 383.5 384.8 in-aid to State and local governments 83.4 85.7 90.7 97.8 83.9 86.2 93.6 99.0 83.3 84.5 85.8 85.8 87.1 86.2 91.3 93.0 93.0 97.3 95.7 97.6 100.6 102.0 Net interest paid 82.2 90.6 109.7 128.7 84.6 94.3 115.5 129.2 87.1 87.2 88.0 91.1 96.8 101.2 107.2 110.4 119.5 124.8 126.4 130.1 127.1 133.0 Subsidies less current surplus of Government enter- Less: Wage accruals less disbursements or deficit (-), national income and product accounts 13.0 21.2 23.5 21.4 0.0 .4 — .1 .1 -112.6 16.0 23.2 21.1 .0 -.4 .2 -.2 .0 .0 .0 -1.3 -.4 .0 145.9 -179.4 -172.9 199.3 -158.8 -202.6 187.9 170.6 -179.7 -179.5 157.8 -163.0 -178.1 192.7 -162.6 -209.1 -201.3 -224.2 21.1 14.3 23.4 18.8 19.8 22.5 31.6 32.7 15.1 18.0 18,5 21.9 20.9 15.9 25.9 .2 .2 .0 .6 .1 -1.0 .0 .0 188.9 -165.5 190.1 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Industrial reduction (1977 = 1 X); seasonal v adjusted Period United States Canada 1979 110.7 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985" 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.8 124.5 1985: Feb Mar Apr May June Julv Aug Sept Oct Nov Dee 123.7 124.0 124.1 124.1 124.3 124.1 125.2 125.1 1986: 1 124.4 125.4 126.3 r Jan Feb" 109.8 108.1 109.0 97.4 102.9 112.0 116.8 114.0 114.2 115.0 115.0 116.4 118.1 118.1 118.0 119.1 119.6 120.4 Japan France 113.7 118.9 107 106 120.1 120.6 124.7 138.4 103 101 102 105 106 107 105 102 103 106 112 105 107 104 105 104 108 108 105 107 109 104 109 110 110 111 113 116 112 112 116 117 111 144.8 142.8 140.8 144.5 148.2 145.1 147.8 146.0 144.6 145.7 144.1 145.2 United Kingdom Germany Italy 107 108.7 114.7 112.1 r r r 109 109 108 108 r 108 l!0.1 ' 106.5 l!0.4 106.0 106 !08 no no r 109 108 126.5 125.7 Data relate to all urban consumers. Canada Ciiited Kingdom Japan France Germany 261.3 282.3 296.2 259.1 294.2 332.7 289.1 298.4 311.1 322.2 221.0 243.5 273.9 303.5 321.0 335.0 348.3 304.1 309.7 316.6 323.0 373.1 407.9 439.5 465.1 166.9 175.8 186.9 196.8 203.3 208.2 212.7 328.5 398.0 472.4 549.4 631.8 698.8 764.7 359.0 423.6 473.9 514.7 538.3 565.1 599.4 317.4 318.8 320.1 321.3 322.3 322.8 323.5 324.5 325.5 326.6 327.4 343.5 344.3 345.7 346.5 348.3 349.5 350.1 350.5 351.7 353.1 354.7 318.7 320.2 321.9 323.3 323.5 323.8 320.7 323.8 328.4 325.0 325.2 455.8 459.0 462.2 464.5 466.4 468.2 468.7 469.2 470.6 471.5 472.1 211.9 212.6 212.9 213.1 213.3 212.9 212.2 212.6 212.9 213.3 213.5 744.2 749.4 756.1 760.6 764.4 766.7 768.2 771.3 780.6 786.1 791.6 582.7 588.1 600.6 603.4 604.7 603.5 605.1 604.8 605.8 607.9 608.7 328.4 327.5 356.3 357.7 325.8 472.6 213.8 217.4 246.8 272.4 100 96 98 101 103 108 r !11.7 r l!2.0 ' 107.2 108.3 111.3 'r 107.2 !07.6 United States ' 107 109.6 103.9 !07.1 108.4 r Consuim r prices (' 967 = 100) ... Italy 610.0 612.2 Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Trade Administration). U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data for statistical month, not seasonally adjusted*] Merc handise expo I s 1 Period foreign exports Total 2 Food, beverages, and tobacco Crude materials and fuels Mercha ndise trade 3alance Merc landise imp orts Gei eral import Domestic exports Total domestic factured goods Total 2 Food, beverages, and tobacco Crude materials and fuels 3 Exports factured goods Total (c.i.f. value) 6,379 8,360 9,352 10,427 13,368 15,504 18,519 21,415 less (customs value) Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (f.a.s.) Exports (f.a.s.) imports (c.i.f.) I .a.s. valu e Monthly average: 1977 1978 1979 1980 10,103 11,973 15,155 18,386 9,919 11,762 14,886 18,043 1,330 1,717 2,049 2,534 1,548 1,746 2,352 2,810 6,679 7,873 9,716 11,991 12,533 14,563 17,455 20,406 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 19,473 17,683 16,707 18,155 17,762 19,075 17,256 16,326 17,670 17,244 2,767 2,248 2,248 2,276 1,852 2,752 2,793 2,463 2,624 2,362 12,857 11,643 11,034 11,929 12,115 21,748 20,329 21,504 27,144 28,773 1,529 1,485 1,568 1,802 1,865 7,739 6,200 5,670 6,063 5,415 11,873 12,002 13,621 18,460 20,565 -2,275 22,779 -2,647 21,240 -4,797 22,490 -8,988 28,431 30,136 — 11,011 -3,306 -3,558 -5,783 -10,276 -12,373 18,673 17,143 20,330 17,973 18,337 18,012 16,727 16,584 17,034 17,618 17,721 16,994 18,124 16,648 19,765 17,492 17,816 17,433 16,172 16,106 16,543 17,122 17,227 16,479 2,161 1,995 1,973 1,913 1,603 1,614 1,604 1,783 1,709 1,836 2,128 1,907 2,671 2,580 2,562 ?,441 2,261 2,122 2,033 2,258 2,115 2,285 2,559 2,459 12,445 11,218 14,245 12,228 12,992 12,759 11,556 11,233 11,700 12,102 11,688 11,221 28,836 25,941 28,725 28,572 29,302 30,136 27,000 26,247 31,349 28,429 30,010 30,728 1,932 1,817 2,128 1,804 1,919 1,912 1,641 1,719 1,903 1,598 1,865 2,138 5,344 4,906 4,383 5,772 5,700 6,054 5,085 4,851 5,562 5,656 5,657 6,011 20,448 18,385 21,301 20,080 20,725 21,268 19,286 18,916 22,887 20,271 21,557 21,654 30,245 27,169 30,107 29,907 30,712 31,596 28,312 27,512 32,860 29,695 31,371 32,141 -10,163 -8,798 -8,395 -10,599 -10,965 -12,124 -10,274 -9,663 -14,315 -10,811 -12,290 -13,734 -11,572 -10,026 -9,777 -11,935 -12,375 -13,584 -11,585 -10,927 -15,826 -12,077 -13,651 -15,146 17,006 17,735 16,501 17,164 1,797 1,689 2,467 2,367 11,393 12,182 32,005 2,215 6,234 22,477 33,465 -14,999 30,225 - 16,459 -12,491 1,186 1,312 1,478 1,546 4,463 4,325 5,949 7,831 -2,430 -2,590 -2,300 -2,020 -3,265 -3,530 — 3,364 -3,030 Customs value 1985: r Jan' Feb' Mar* Apr' May* June* Julv* Aug* Sept* Oct* Nov* Dec* 1986: Jan* Feb* 1 Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginning January 1978. 2 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. 3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. NOTE.—Imports on c.i.f. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods. Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Islands exports are reflected in the figures for domestic and foreign exports combined and trade balance. Data for 1977-79 for domestic and foreign exports combined, total general imports, and trade balance include trade of the Virgin Islands. 'Beginning with data for January 1986, the Bureau of the Census no longer publishes these data on a seasonally adjusted basis. Beginning with this issue of Economic Indicators, all monthly data are therefore not seasonally adjusted. For further information and for details regarding revised statistical month and monthly carryover data, see Bureau of the Census release FT 900. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the fourth quarter of 1985 the current account deficit rose to $36.6 billion from $29.3 billion in the third quarter. The merchandise trade deficit rose to $39.5 billion from $33.0 billion in the third quarter. BILLI ONS OF DOLL/^RS* BILL! ONS OF DOLL/»RS* 10 10 BALANCE Oh-1 GOODS AND SERVICES 5 / r^ /F\^~* A ./Ov-* "^X v. "*"*\ N f \ __„•••* ^ «./' BA ^^\ LANCE ON CURRE;NT ACCOUNT ~~ ^ \ *•""" "s. o r \\ ys. *.~ \s ^^. __-/ A A Vi .*' \ \\ ~\^/ * / V -- -N. MERCHANDISE TR ADE BALANCE 5 \\ 10 \ ff* -1 5 \ V *\ \\ \ x • \\ \ \ \ 15 "^\ \ V- "V« \ 'x^ \ \t V- 20 A <A \ r\ Vn rf \^*%, -25 'VA N/ \ ^\ \ \\ \ \ \ \\ 1 1 1 -40 1 1977 1 1 1 j 1 1979 1978 -30 \ \ t 35 \ 1 1 1 1 1980 1 1 1981 1 1 1 1982 1 1 1 I 1983 1 1 1984 i i r. -40 1985 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMEN I OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits ( + ), debits ( —)] Inivestment inconie 3 l Merchandise '' Period Exports 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985" 1983: I rr ni IV 1984: I n m IV 1985: lr. rr IIK.... IV" 1 2 3 Imports Net balance 27,536 -25,480 -27,978 — 36,444 -268,928 -67,216 334,023 -114,107 -338,279 -124,289 Net Receipts Payments 64,132 72,506 86,411 84,768 78,023 87,609 90,456 -32,960 -42,120 -52,329 -55,273 -52,621 -68,500 -65,772 31,172 30,386 34,082 29,495 25,402 19,109 24,684 N eti military transactions Net travel and transportation receipts -1,778 -2,935 -2,237 -997 144 -1,183 -318 -992 -162 -4,721 -1,765 -8,974 -2,045 -11,741 Other services, net 3 Balance on goods and services l Kemittances, pensions, and other unilateral transfers J Balance on current account -991 4,659 -5,649 8,950 -7,077 7,277 1,873 8,121 13,186 -6,847 6,339 -8,051 8,345 84 -8,135 9,557 -37,141 -8,852 -45,994 9,791 -95,945 -11,413 - 107,358 10,512 -102,880 -14,784 -117,664 184,473 224,269 237,085 211,198 201,712 219,916 213,990 -212,009 -249,749 -265,063 -247,642 49,535 49,048 49,992 53,137 58,418 -64,928 -70,689 -74,893 -8,883 -15,880 -20,697 -21,756 17,935 19,172 20,985 19,932 -12,283 -12,856 -13,588 -13,893 5,652 6,316 7,397 6,039 703 -71 -126 -669 -448 -1,116 -1,422 -1,735 2,260 2,462 2,290 2,544 -716 -8,289 -12,558 -15,577 -1,606 -1,875 -2,204 -3,166 -2,322 -10,164 -14,762 -18,743 53,469 54,556 55,649 56,242 -78,091 -84,181 -84,626 -87,127 -24,622 -29,625 -28,977 -30,885 23,502 20,895 21,769 21,445 -15,268 -17,277 -18,513 -17,442 8,234 3,618 3,256 4,003 -346 -593 -250 -575 -1,753 -2,050 -2,574 -2,597 2,582 2,412 2,452 2,344 -15,905 -26,238 -26,093 -27,710 -2,212 -2,232 -2,876 -4,095 -18,117 -28,470 -28,969 -31,805 55,198 53,530 52,276 52,986 -78,563 — 82,017 -85,231 -92,468 -23,365 -28,487 -32,955 -39,482 18,861 22,270 24,896 24,428 -16,331 -16,892 - 16,245 -16,304 2,530 5,378 8,651 8,124 -212 -586 -429 -818 -2,389 -3,090 -3,112 -3,150 2,425 2,587 2,541 2,956 -21,011 -24,198 -25,304 -32,370 -3,372 -3,428 -3,996 -4,189 -24,183 -27,626 -29,300 -36,559 Excludes military grants. Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the 36 5,735 United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $8.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 1985 compared with an increase of $1.5 billion in the third quarter. Liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $20.5 billion, compared to an increase of $6.5 billion in the third quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 60 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 60 CHANGE IN FOREIGN ASSETS IN THE U.S..NET 40 40 20 20 CHANGE IN U.S. ASSETS ABROAD.NET -20 -20 -40 -40 I -60 1977 I -60 1981 1980 1982 1983 1984 1985 'SEASON, SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] U.S. assets abroad, net 1 increase/capit il outflow (— ) Period Total 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985" 1983: I n ni IV 1984: I n m IV 1985: I T nr m r ... TV p ... U.S. Other U.S. reserve assets 1 2 ment assets Foreign assets in the ' J.S., net [increas /capital inflow» ( + )] z U.S. private assets Total Other foreign assets (SDKs) Statistical discrepancy 1 Of which: Total (sum Seasonal of the items adjustment with sign reversed) discrepancy 25,431 24,982 20,276 32,821 16,717 30,486 32,739 assets, net 1 (unadjusted, end of period) -3,746 -59,453 -5,162 -72,802 -5,097 -100,758 6,131 -108,122 -5,006 -48,843 -5,516 -11,800 -2,628 -31,697 38,752 58,112 83,322 94,447 84,322 97,319 123,108 — 13,665 15,497 4,960 3,672 5,795 3,424 -1,908 52,416 42,615 78,362 90,775 78,526 93,895 125,016 -1,135 -1,263 — 1,171 -1,436 -24,205 119 -9,172 -15,587 15,158 15,608 19,539 34,017 -161 1,706 -2,666 6,916 15,319 13,902 22,205 27,101 13,291 -4,316 5,037 2,702 680 83 2,953 3,547 34,261 33,876 33,066 33,747 -657 566 -799 -1,110 -2.059 -1,353 -1,369 -734 -2,260 17,070 20,532 -13,003 19,277 41,592 3,140 33,310 -2,786 -224 -686 7,119 22.063 41,816 3,825 26,191 3,816 5,866 7,466 13,341 -455 -573 -3,274 4,305 34,975 34,547 34,306 34,934 -233 356 -121 -3,148 -850 853 -392 532 621 1,342 -12,235 -18,742 13,711 26,313 34,548 48,536 -11,204 8,465 2,435 - 1,604 24,915 17,849 32,113 50,140 10,934 3,863 7,500 10,444 -425 -597 -3,650 4,674 35,493 36,088 38,295 43,186 -64,331 -86,118 -111,031 — 119,218 -55,045 -20,447 -38,183 -1,133 8,155 -5,175 4,965 -1,196 3,131 -3,858 -26,127 -1,128 -9,814 -17,976 -787 16 529 -953 -4,976 -18,988 18,364 - 14,846 -462 -2,551 -12,748 -22,421 1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the IMF. 2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. Foreign official assets Allocations of special drawing 1,139 1,152 1,093 18,956 26,756 30,074 33,958 33,747 34,934 43,186 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING ^ Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets Consumer Installment Credit Bank Loans and Securities, and Reserves Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: p Preliminary. ' Revised. c Corrected. ... Not available (also, not applicable). NSA not seasonally adjusted. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Price $2.50 (single copy) ($3.13 foreign). Subscription price: $27.00 per year; $33.75 for foreign mailing. 38 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1986 0—58-850