Full text of Economic Indicators : March 1949
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^ongress, LST session
c LOUIS Put)»C LiDrary
V
''"
REFERENCE DEPT.
Joint Committee Print
J
Economic Indicators
MARCH 1949
Prepared for the joint Committee on the Economic Report
by the Council of Economic Advisers
and printed for the use of
the Joint Committee on the Economic Report
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1949
87505
JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, Chairman
EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Vice Chairman
FRANCIS T. MYERS, Pennsylvania
WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas
JOHN SPARKMAN, Alabama
PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois
WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio
ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio
RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont
FRANK BUCHANAN, Pennsylvania
JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan
ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania
ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah
CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts
FRED E. BERQUIST, Acting Staff Director
JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk
WILLIAM H. MOORE, Economist
To the Members of Congress:
As has been stated in previous issues of Economic Indicators from the time the Joint Committee on the Economic Report was established, its members realized that
one of its basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture
of current economic trends and developments.
Fortunately, the Joint Committee finds that Economic
Indicators^ a set of basic charts and tables compiled
monthly by the Council of Economic Advisers, admirably
fills this need. While this material was prepared primarily for the use of the President, the Council and other
officials in the executive offices, the Council has made it
available to the Joint Committee.
Other Members of Congress have also expressed an
interest in being able to obtain a quick picture of current
economic facts without having to go through voluminous and specialized documents. In addition,
businessmen, farm leaders, labor organizations, and representatives of the press and radio have indicated their
11
desire for this information. Since nothing contained
in these charts and tables is of a confidential nature they
have urged that the material be made available to the
general public.
Accordingly, the Joint Committee has, since last July,
provided the Congress and the public with a limited
number of copies of Economic Indicators as a Committee
print pending final action on authorizing the publication on a more permanent basis. Since such legislation
is still under consideration, the Committee is continuing
to issue the report on a monthly basis.
Comments or suggestions with respect to possible
improvements in this presentation will always be
welcome.
Chairman^ Joint Committee on the Economic Report.
Letter o£ Transmitted
Hon. JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Chairman,
Joint Committee on the Economic Report,
United States Congress, Washington, D. C.
DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the
Joint Committee on the Economic Report in your plans to make Economic Indicators
available to the Congress as a whole and to the general public.
In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has
found it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts
showing current trends in the Nation's economy.
Thus the Executive Office is in a better
position to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the
improvement and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services.
We have realized, of course, that this material has a potential usefulness not only to
the President, the Council and the executive departments, but also to the Congress.
Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly
by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and consumer organizations with
whom we regularly consult.
We believe the Joint Committee will perform a service of real value by giving wide
circulation to this material.
Sincerely yours,
Chairman.
Vice Chairman.
J
<J
111
Contents
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
The Nation's Economic Budget
Page
1
PRICES
Consumers' Prices
Wholesale Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
Stock Prices
2
3
4
5
EMPLOYMENT
Labor Force
Employment in Business and Government
Average Weekly Hours
Work Stoppages
6
7
8
9
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production
Production of Selected Durable Manufactures
Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures
New Construction
New Housing Starts
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
New Corporate Security Issues
Inventories and Sales
Exports and Imports
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
PURCHASING POWER
National Income
Corporate Profits
Personal Income
Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving
Per Capita Income
Average Hourly Earnings
Average Weekly Earnings
Farm Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Consumer Credit
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
Bank Loans and Investments
Money Supply
Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
IV
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
29
30
31
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
Consumers' expenditures lagged behind the rise in income from the 1st half to the 2nd half of 1948
The Government surplus declined sharply as receipts fell and payments rose.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
TOTAL (GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT)
1948, FIRST HALF
1948, SECOND HALF
1948, FIRST HALF
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
Transfer payments .
CONSUMERS
EXCESS OF
EXPENDITURES (-), RECEIPTS(-I-)
0
f
CONSUMER
SAVING
BUSINESS
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
INTERNATIONAL
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL,STATE AND LOCAL)
CASH
SURPLUS
^Transfer payments
z/
1948, SECOND HALF
CONSUMERS
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
Transfer payments •
CONSUMER
SAVING
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
INTERNATIONAL
EXCESS OF
RECEIPTS
GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL. STATE AND LOCAL)
%
£|
<*.
^
^"-Transfer payments
•
'
^ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED.
"'TRANSFER PAYMENTS ARE INCLUDED IN RECEIPTS OR EXPENDITURES OF THE SEPARATE ACCOUNTS BUT NOT
IN THE TOTAL GROSS N A T I O N A L PRODUCT.
"'INCLUDES AN ADJUSTMENT OF +- $ a.e BILLION IN FIRST HALF AND - $2.3 BILLION IN SECOND HALF.
SOURCE: SEE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT. JANUARY 1949, APPENDIX A.
CASH
SURPLUS
PRICES
CONSUMERS' PRICES
Consumers' prices declined slightly in January, bringing the level about 2 percent below the AugustSeptember peak. The January decline was due primarily to reductions in apparel and housefurnishings
as a result of clearance sales. Foods declined slightly; rents continued upward.
PERCENT Of 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 A V E R A G E
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
1942
1940
•ALSO INCLUDES HOUSEFURNISHINGS, FUEL, ELEC'
1943
1944
1947
1948
1949
', REFRIGERATION, AMD MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES, NOT SHOWN ON CHART
S O U R C E : DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
[1935-39-100]
Period
1939 monthly average
194t) monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 month Iv average
1 944 monthly average _
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average _
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average. _
1948: January
February
March
_
April
May
June
July
August
September _
October
November
December _
1949: January-- -
All items
_ _
_ _
_ ~_ _
_
_ __
_ _
__ _
_ _
_ _
__
99. 4
100. 2
105 2
116. 5
123. 6
125. 5
128. 4
139. 3
159. 2
171. 2
168. 8
167. 5
166. 9
169. 3
170. 5
171. 7
173. 7
174. 5
174. 5
173. 6
172. 2
171. 4
170. 9
Food
95. 2
96. 6
105 5
123. 9
138 0
136. 1
139 1
159. 6
193. 8
210. 2
209. 7
204. 7
202. 3
207. 9
210. 9
214. 1
216. 8
216. 6
215. 2
211. 5
207 5
205. 0
204. 8
NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities.
Source: Department of Labor.
Apparel
100. 5
101. 7
106 3
124. 2
129 7
138. 8
145 9
160. 2
185. 8
198. 0
192. 1
195 1
196. 3
196 4
197. 5
196. 9
197. 1
199. 7
201. 0
201. 6
201 4
200. 4
196. 5
Rent
104. 3
104. 6
106 2
108. 5
108 0
108. 2
108. 3
108. 6
111. 2
117. 4
115. 9
116 0
116. 3
116. 3
116. 7
117. 0
117. 3
117. 7
118. 5
118. 7
118. 8
119. 5
119. 7
Fuel, electricity, and
refrigeration
House furnishings
99. 0
99. 7
102. 2
105. 4
107. 7
109. 8
110. 3
112. 4
121. 1
133. 9
129. 5
130. 0
130. 3
130. 7
131. 8
132. 6
134. 8
136. 8
137. 3
137. 8
137. 9
137. 8
138. 2
101. 3
100. 5
107. 3
122. 2
125. 6
136. 4
145. 8
159. 2
184. 4
195. 8
192. 3
193.0
194. 9
194. 7
193. 6
194. 8
195. 9
196. 3
198. 1
198. 8
198. 7
198. 6
196. 5
Miscellaneous
100. 7
101. 1
104. 0
110. 9
115. 8
121. 3
124. 1
128. 8
139. 9
149. 9
146.4
146. 4
146. 2
147. 8
147. 5
147. 5
150. 8
152. 4
152. 7
153. 7
153. 9
154.0
154. 1
WHOLESALE PRICES
level at the end of January. Farm
rices declined a little.
and food prices fluctuated sharply during the month while industrial prices
PERCENT OF 1926 AV ERAGE
PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE
220
220
WEEKLY INDEX
200
1
>X>
//
80
~~^S^--FARM P R O D U C T S
<
160
—
T
7"
1
40
120
1 OO
80
1 1111 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11
1939
1946
1942
1941
1940
1947
1948
1949
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
i i i
I i i
i i i
DEC
1948
JAN
FEB
COUNCIL
1949
OF E C O N O M I C A D V I S E R S
[1926=100]
All commodities
Period
1939 monthly average
- _
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
1946 monthly average
June _
_
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average.
_
1948: January
_
February _
___
March
_
April
_ _
Mayjr
- - - June
July.
___
August
September
October
November
_
_ . _ _ _
December
_ __
_ _
1949: January _
_
Week ended:
Jan. 25
_
Feb. 1
8
15
22
Mar. 2 _ _ _ _ _
_
Farm products
Foods
Other than
farm and
foods
77. 1
87 3
98. 8
121 1
112. 9
152 1
165. 0
165. 7
160 9
161. 4
162 8
163 9
166 2
168 7
169 5
168 7
165 2
164 0
162. 3
160 6
65 3
82 4
105. 9
148 9
140. 1
181 2
188. 3
199. 2
185 3
186. 0
186 7
189. 1
196 0
195. 2
191 0
189. 9
183 5
180. 8
177. 3
172. 5
70. 4
82. 7
99. 6
130. 7
112. 9
168. 7
179. 1
179. 9
172. 4
173. 8
176. 7
177. 4
181. 4
188. 3
189. 5
186. 9
178. 2
174. 3
170. 2
165. 8
81. 3
89. 0
95. 5
109. 5
105. 6
135. 2
150. 7
148.3
147. 6
147. 7
148. 7
149. 1
149. 5
151. 1
153. 1
153. 3
153. 1
153. 5
153. 0
152. 9
158. 8
158 8
156. 9
158 5
158. 5
158 8
167. 9
168. 9
162. 5
168. 9
169. 6
170. 5
159. 2
158. 6
156. 9
159. 0
160. 8
161. 3
153. 6
153. 5
152. 9
152. 9
152. 2
152. 3
NOTE.—The weekly index presented here is a revised index which permits direct comparison with the
monthly index. It is not comparable with the old weekly index which does not permit such a comparison.
Source: Department of Labor.
60
MAf
*
PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received by farmers dropped 4 percent from the middle of January to the middle of February.
With prices paid down only I percent, the parity ratio fell 3 percent.
PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE
350
PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE
350
MONTHLY AVERAGE
PRICES RECEIVED
300
300
250
250
PRICES PAID
(INCL. INTEREST, TAXES)
200
100
100
PARITY RATIO
50
i
1939
40
41
42
i
43
i
I
44
45
46
J
F M A M J
I
I
I
1947
I
I
1 I
I
I
J A S O N
I
I
I I I
D J F M A M J
1948
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.
I
0 A S O N D J F M A M J
1949
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
Period
Prices paid by
Prices
(includ- Parity ratio 3
received 1 farmers
ing interest
by farmers
and taxes)2
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: January
February
March.
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
No vember.
December
95
124
159
192
195
202
233
278
287
307
279
283
291
289
295
301
293
290
277
271
268
124
132
150
162
169
172
193
231
249
77
94
106
119
115
116
120
120
115
251
248
247
249
250
251
251
251
250
249
247
248
122
112
115
117
116
118
120
117
116
111
110
108
1949: January
February
268
258
248
245
108
105
1
August 1909-July
2
1910-14=100.
3
1914=100.
Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and taxes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
STOCK PRICES
After advancing in January, stock prices declined in February to levels slightly above
March 1948. U t i l i t i e s did not.join in the decline.
PERCENT
PERCENT
OF 1935 - 39 A V E R A G E
OF
1935-39
AVERAGE
175
175
100
1939
SOURCE :
40
4\l
STANDARD
42
A\ND
43
POOR'S
44
45
46
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
1947
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
J
1948
F
M
CORPORATION.
[1935-39 = 100]
Combined
index *
Period
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average..
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October. _
November
December _ _
1949: January
February
_
_ _
_ _ __
94. 2
80.0
69. 4
91. 9
99. 8
121. 5
139. 9
123. 0
124. 4
120. 1
114. 2
116. 4
124. 6
130. 2
135. 1
131. 9
127. 1
125. 7
127. 8
120. 4
119. 4
121. 0
117. 2
Industrials
1
94. 8
80.4
71. 3
94. 1
101. 7
123. 3
143. 4
128. 0
130. 6
126. 0
119. 2
121. 8
130. 8
136. 9
142. 7
138. 9
133. 5
131. 7
134. 3
126. 4
125. 5
127. 3
122. 7
Railroads
1
74. 7
70. 6
66. 1
88. 7
101. 0
136. 9
143.0
105. 3
114. 8
106 5
101. 9
105. 2
115.2
122. 6
125. 6
124. 7
119. 7
120. 4
120. 9
108. 8
105. 8
105. 9
99. 6
Utilities »
98 6
81. 0
61. 3
82. 1
89. 9
106 1
120. 2
102. 9
96. 3
95 1
92. 6
93. 0
96. 2
99. 2
100. 6
99. 5
97. 3
97. 3
97. 4
94. 2
92. 9
94. 2
94. 4
1
Combined index prior to June 23, 1948, was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials,
20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads,
and 31 utilities.
Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
87505Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
A
1949
M
J
EMPLOYMENT
LABOR FORCE
Civilian employment in February was near the level of a year ago. Unemployment was about 3.2 million
compared with 2.6 million in February 1948.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS
MILLIONS
OF PERSONS
75
75
TOTAL
LABOR FORCE
50 -
25 -
MONTHLY
AVERAGE
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
UNEMPLOYED
-
i—i n"
1941
1944
1945
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT
1946
1947
1949
1948
OF C O M M E R C E
[Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over]
Period
Total labor
force, including
armed
forces
Civilians employed
Total
In nonagricultural
industries
In agriculture
Armed
forces
Unemployed
1941 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average__
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
57,
65,
65,
60,
61,
62,
380
890
140
820
608
748
50, 350
53, 960
52, 820
55, 250
58, 027
59, 378
41, 250
45, 010
44, 240
46, 930
49, 761
51, 405
9, 100
8,950
8, 580
8,320
8, 266
7,973
1,470
11,260
11, 280
3,300
1,440
1,307
5,560
670
1,040
2,270
2, 141
2,064
1948: January
February
_
March
April
May
June
July
August - September.
October
November „
December
60, 455
61, 004
61, 005
61, 760
61, 660
64, 740
65, 135
64, 511
63, 578
G3, 166
63, 138
62, 828
57, 149
57, 139
57, 329
58, 330
58, 660
61, 296
61, 615
61, 245
60, 312
60, 134
59, 893
59, 434
50, 089
50, 368
50, 482
50, 883
50, 800
51, 899
52, 452
52, 801
51, 590
51, 506
51, 932
52, 059
7,060
6, 771
6, 847
7,448
7,861
9,396
9, 163
8,444
8,723
8,627
7,961
7,375
1,241
1,226
1,236
1,236
1,238
1,261
1,293
1,325
1, 366
1,391
1,414
1,453
2, 065
2, 639
2,440
2, 193
1,761
2, 184
2, 227
1,941
1,899
1,642
1,831
1,941
1949: January
February
61, 546
61, 896
57, 414
57, 168
50, 651
50, 174
6, 763
6, 993
1,468
1, 508
2, 664
3, 221
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
M
J
EMPLOYMENT IN BUSINESS AND GOVERNMENT
Employment in all durable industries, except automobiles and machinery, and in most nondurables decreased
in January. Trade and post offices (part of government), showing the usual post-Christmas
declines, were near the levels of last fall.
MILLIONS OF WAGE
AND S A L A R Y WORKERS
MILLIONS OF WAGE
AND S A L A R Y W O R K E R S
12
12
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
S O N D
J f
J
1947
SOURCE:
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
1948
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
1949
D e p o r t m e n t of Labo
[Thousands of wage and salary workers *
Durable
manufacturing
Period
1939 monthly
1943 monthly
1946 monthly
1947 monthly
1948 monthly
average _
average...
average
average
average 2
__
_ __
1947: December __
1948: January
February
March
__
April.
May
June
July
August
September __ _
October
November 2 _ _
December
_
1949: January
_
___
_
_
_
2
1
___
__
__
_
Nondurable
manufacturing
Trade
4, 357
10, 297
7 180
8, 055
8, 214
5, 720
7, 084
7 335
7, 846
8,062
6, 705
7, 322
8 820
9, 450
9, 746
8, 274
8, 080
8,256
8, 167
8,258
8, 164
8, 114
8, 122
8, 165
8, 188
8,294
8, 318
8,299
8, 228
8, 033
Transportation and
Finance and Government
(Federal,
public
service
State, local)
utilities
Contract
construction
Mining
610
187
016
278
403
3, 987
6 049
5 607
5, 450
5, 658
2, 912
3 619
4 023
4, 059
4, 065
1, 150
1 567
1 661
1, 921
2,063
845
917
852
911
925
10, 288
6 364
5, 638
4, 071
1, 978
925
8, Oil
8 016
8, Oil
7 786
7, 778
7, 993
8,007
8, 253
8, 403
8,279
8, 156
8, 050
9, 622
9 520
9, 598
9 576
9, 617
9 670
9, 646
9, 660
9, 733
9, 889
10, 036
10, 380
6
6
6,
6
6,
6
6,
6
6,
6,
6,
6,
403
420
426
472
454
389
399
383
379
364
364
351
5, 498
5 492
5, 546
5, 577
5, 624
5, 607
5, 604
5, 650
5, 801
5, 789
5, 714
5, 994
4, 020
4 019
4, 032
3 974
4,042
4, 105
4, 136
4, 139
4, 092
4, 091
4, 066
4, 067
1,871
1, 731
1,805
1, 933
2,052
2, 173
2,219
2, 253
2,239
2, 206
2, 162
2, 078
922
914
924
817
935
950
922
952
948
941
938
939
7, 842
9 624
6 282
5, 761
3, 997
1, 881
926
4,
5
6
6
6,
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending
nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this
table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 6) which include
proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and
which
are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
2
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS
After a general increase in average weekly hours in. December, preliminary data for
manufacturing show a decrease in January.
HOUR S PER WEEK
HOURS PER WEEK
ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
RETAIL TRADE
50
50
45
45
40
/\
J
—»
^^^
—\
—*.
^-*
40
35
35
30
30
25
25
0
!
I
40
I
1
1
42
1
44
1
1
46
1
48
TTTTTrrrTTTrrrrTFTTTTi i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1947
1948
11111111 111
0
40
1949
42
44
MONTHLY
AVERAGE
40
//
35
30
AN
\i\MT. .ur
s
25
0
rrrrrrrrrr
40
42
44
46
1 1 1 i 1 ! I 1 1 1 1 1
48
/^35
^->—^
v^—^
</
30
25
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1947
1949
40
HF
1 1 !
1948
45
r
V
i i i i i 1 i ii i i 1 i i i i i 1 i i i i i
1947
50
\
45
48
PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
50
46
77777177777
1948
^==
0
40
1949
42
44
46
48
.
i i i i i 1 i i i i rl i i 1 i i ! i i i i i 1 i i i i i 1 i i i i i J
1947
1948
1949
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF L A B O R .
[Hours per week, selected industries]
All manufacturing
industries
Period
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average 3
1947: December
1948: January _ _
February
March __ __
April
May.
June
July.
___
August
September
October 3
November3 _
December
1949: January 3
8
1
2
3
__
_
_
_
_
__
_
37. 7
40. 6
45. 2
43. 4
40.4
40. 3
40. 1
41. 2
40. 5
40. 2
40. 4
40. 1
39. 9
40. 2
39.8
40. 1
39. 8
40. 0
39. 8
40. 0
39. 6
Bituminous
coal mining
27. 1
31. 1
43. 4
42. 3
41. 6
40. 6
37. 7
41.2
40. 9
38. 7
40. 6
2 27. 0
40. 3
39. 9
34. 2
39. 4
37. 9
38. 6
37. 1
38. 1
Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects
Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.
Private
building l
construction
32. 6
34. 8
39. 6
39. 0
38. 1
37. 6
37. 3
37. 9
37. 2
36. 7
37. 1
37. 0
37. 1
37. 9
37.8
37. 8
37. 5
37. 4
36. 7
37. 8
Retail trade
43. 0
42. 5
40. 3
40. 3
40. 5
40. 2
40. 1
39.7
39.8
40. 0
39.8
39. 8
39. 9
40. 3
40. 8
41. 0
40.2
39. 7
39. 5
40. 2
WORK STOPPAGES
Work stoppages continued at a low level in January.
MILLIONS OF M A N - D A Y S IDLE
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE
I5
15
1939
1940
1941
1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1941
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
d
A
S
O
N
D
J
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF L A B O R .
Man-days
idle
(thousands)
1939: Monthly average
April— peak month
__
1941* Monthly average
April —peak month
__
1 942 : Monthly average _
_
1 943 : Monthly average _ ~_
June—peak month
1944" Monthly average
1945: Monthly average
October—peak month
_
1946: Monthly average
February —peak month
1947: Monthly average
_ _
April—peak month
1948: Monthly average l _
_ _
__
_ -_
_ _ _ _
_
1948: July l
August 1
September
.
October1 1
Novemberl
December
_
__
1
Preliminary estimate.
349
727
_
_
_
_
_
__
_ _ _ _
1,484
4,902
1, 921
7, 113
1, 125
4, 699
__
_
_ _ _ _
_
_
_
_
_ _ _ _ _ _
x
1949: January
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
Period
1
F
___
__
_
____
_ _ _ .
_ _ _ _ _
Source: Department ofjLabor.
Man-days idle
as percent of
estimated available working
time
.3
1. 0
.3
1. 1
.1
.2
.6
.1
3, 168
8, 610
9, 672
22, 900
2, 993
8,540
2,833
.5
1.4
1.4
4.2
.4
1.2
2, 750
2, 100
2, 500
2,000
1,900
.4
.3
.3
.3
.3
.4
600
.1
800
.1
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Industrial production in January was just below the December level and somewhat below the October-November
peak. Output of durable goods decreased slightly and minerals 3 percent, while nondurables increased a little.
Preliminary data for February indicate that production was just under the January level.
250 -
250
200 -
200
150 -
150
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
IS48
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[1935-39 = 100, seasonally adjusted]
Points in total index,
1935-39 average for total =100
Indexes, 1935-39=100
Period
Manufactures
Total
industrial
Nonduraproduction Total Durable
goods ble goods
Mining
Durable
goods
Nondurable goods
Mining
1935-39 monthly average.
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 month-ty average L_
100
239
203
170
187
192
100
258
214
177
194
198
100
360
274
192
220
225
100
176
166
165
172
177
100
132
137
134
149
155
38
136
104
73
83
85
47
83
78
77
81
83
15
20
21
21
23
24
1948: January
February
March
April
May_
June
July__
August
September _
October
November
December
193
194
191
188
192
192
186
191
192
195
195
192
201
201
200
195
197
198
191
197
199
202
201
199
229
226
229
217
221
222
219
222
225
230
229
231
178
180
177
177
178
179
169
176
178
179
178
173
154
155
142
147
162
159
153
159
156
158
161
156
87
86
87
82
84
84
83
84
85
87
87
87
83
84
83
83
83
84
79
82
83
84
83
81
23
24
22
22
25
24
23
24
24
24
25
24
1949: January J!
February
191
190
198
197
229
227
174
173
151
149
87
86
81
81
23
23
1
Preliminary estimate.
10
Manufactures
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE
MANUFACTURES
Activity in machinery industries dropped about 4 percent in January, chiefly as a result of reductions in
industrial equipment and household appliances; lumber was down 5 percent, partly because of bad
weather. Steel production rising 2 percent established a new record.
PERCE NT OF 1935-39 A V E R A G E
PERCENT OF 1935-39 A V E R A G E
IRON AND STEEL
LUMBER AND
250
200
1 50
100
/"V
i i 1 I LJ. l i l
40
42
44-
46
200
V
^^P^-t-
150
1 1 1 1 1 11M
i 1 1 1 1 1I M 1 1
48
1947
M
l II 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1
1948
100
^**xv*s t
H
1
40
1949
1
1
|
42
H
250
200
1 50
1 00
1
V
42
48
INN
INN
1947
1 i 1 [ 1 i 1 1 II i
1 1 1 1 i 11 1 1 11
1948
1949
AND PRODUCTS
s
AVERAGE
300
-vX
^"\*\^S-^
^
250
200
__TL_
40
1
NONFERROUS METALS
MONTHLY
f
,'\ M I i i i i i
|
46
350
.
MONTHLY A V E R A G E
300
||
44
MACHINERY
350
s
MONTHLY A V E R A G E
/^N-n PS/
^\X
PRODUCTS
250
)
150
1 1 1 II 1 II 1 1 1
1 1 1 M 1 M 1 11
1947
1948
44 46 48
1 1 1 1 l
i M
M
100
1949
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE
A
A
// V
1 i t i | | | | |
40 42
44
46
48
^/
1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 M
1947
M i i i 1 li i 11
I I 1 1 1 1 1 1 II I
1948
1949
SYSTEM.
[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
monthly
monthly
monthly
monthly
monthly
monthly
monthly
monthly
monthly
monthly
average
average
average
average
average
average
average
average
average
average
__
_
_ _ _
_
_
__ _
_
_
___
_ _ _
_ _
1947: December
1948: January
February
March
April
Mav
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1949' January 1
_
__
_
_
___
_
_
_
_
_
_ _
_
_- - -
_
_
Machinery
Nonferrous
metals and
products
114
147
186
199
208
206
183
150
195
208
104
136
221
340
443
439
343
240
276
277
113
139
191
214
267
259
204
157
187
193
106
116
134
134
129
125
109
131
143
145
206
288
189
153
203
203
207
177
208
208
201
207
214
221
223
'222
227
285
284
283
275
273
277
269
271
273
277
277
275
267
195
199
201
200
196
194
185
186
192
192
187
185
184
155
150
151
145
142
140
142
148
143
147
145
144
136
Iron and
steel
Period
_ _
_
_
_
_
_
1
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Lumber and
products
11
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE
MANUFACTURES
Output of textile Industries increased about 4 percent in January, as a result of cotton textiles recovering
their December drop, while the output of petroleum refining and of chemical industries decreased.
PERCE NT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS
PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS
300
300
MONTHLY
AVERAGE
200
200
^T^l
*
1 00
0
J~~^
1
! 1
40
1 | | | | 1
42
44
1 ! 1 II 1 1 1 1 I i
46 48
1 1 1 1 1
1947
Mill
100
II II 1 M i l l
1948
0
1949
A/
»
J^
r-^-V^
-^^
i i i i | i | | |
40
42
44
46
MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS
\ II M i II 1 1 1
48
1947
MONTHLY
M 1 I I 1 1 II 1 1
1948
CHEMICAL
1949
PRODUCTS
MONTHLY JL
A V E R A G E j\
AVERAGE
300
300
-»*-~s
^
200
200
0
1 M 1 1 I 1 11
400
400
1 00
M
1
1
1
40 42
/
/
100
^
1
'•* •- • fe
1
1
44
j
1
46
I
i i i I I I I I II 1 MM!
48
1947
M i l l
1948
I 1 ! ] 1
M i l l
1949
0
1
I
40
I
|
42
|
|
44
| |
]__
46
48
1 1 1 1 1 I 1 M
M
1947
M M 1 1 M 1 M
M 1 1 1 11 1 1 M
1948
1949
SOURCE: BOARD OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE S Y S T E M
[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Textiles and
products
Period
1935-39 monthly average _
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
_
1946 monthly average1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
Manufactured food
products
Chemical
products
100
153
146
162
163
169
100
185
235
173
193
218
100
145
151
150
157
159
100
384
284
236
251
254
1947: December.
163
208
158
254
1948: January
February
March
April _
179
179
175
174
176
174
154
166
168
167
164
156
214
215
211
213
220
221
217
222
207
217
227
230
158
160
158
157
159
163
160
154
163
161
159
157
255
252
250
249
249
256
251
259
257
255
257
257
162
227
157
252
May
June
July
August
_
September
October
November
December
1949: January l
1
_
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
12
Petroleum
and coal
products
NEW CONSTRUCTION
Construction expenditures declined less in February 1949 than in the same month last year. Total private
construction was about 6 percent above a year ago while public construction was about 50 percent higher.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2.00O
2,000
MONTHLY AVERAGE
TOTAL
NEW CONSTRUCTION
1,500
1,500
1,000
1,000
I
FM
1939 1942 1944 1945 1946 1947
A
M
J
J
AS
I 949
INCLUDES PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
COUNCIL
OF
ECONOMIC
ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars]
Private construction
Total new
construction
Period
Total
private
1939 monthly average,
1942 monthly average,
1944 monthly average,
1945 monthly average,
1946 monthly average.
1947 monthly average.
1948 monthly average.
1948: January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1949: January 2
February
1
2
|
1
i
|
!
'
I
__j
j
!
|
526
118
345
401
871
1, 165
1,472
1,157
1, 009
1, 166
1, 311
1, 461
1, 616
1, 715
1, 799
1, 782
1,707
1, 552
1, 391
1,261
1, 146
317
251
152
226
688
908
1, 136
948
837
940
1,024
1, 120
1,235
1, 318
1,354
1, 332
1, 265
1, 178
1, 080
974
889
Residential
(nonfarm)
;
176
110
45
57
265
438
582
500
400
475
525
585
635
680
695
685
650
600
550
490
425
Other
141
141
107
169
422
469
554
448
437
466
499
535
600
638
659
647
615
578
530
484
464
Federal,
State, and
local l
208
867
193
174
184
257
336
209
172
226
287
341
381
397
445
450
442
374
311
287
257
Includes public residential construction.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.
13
NEW HOUSING STARTS
Housing starts in January were again 5 percent below a year ago.
THOUSANDS OF UNITS
125
THOUSANDS OF UNITS
125
NEW NONFARM DWELLING UNITS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
14
New nonfarm units started *
Month
1947
January r_
Februar3 _ _
_
_
March.
April
May.
j .
__
June
July
August. _ _
September _
__
October
November
_
December _ .. _ _ _
Monthly average
_
39, 300
42, 800
56, 000
67, 100
72, 900
77, 200
81, 100
86, 300
93, 800
94, 000
79, 700
58, 800
71, 125
1948
2
2
2
2
52, 600
49, 600
75, 100
98, 800
99, 400
97, 500
93, 500
86, 300
82, 200
72, 000
65, 000
56, 000
1949
2
50, 000
77, 233
1
Conventional and prefabricated units, Excludes temporary units after 1947 when'
program
ended.
2
Preliminary.
Source: Department of Labor.
EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT
AND EQUIPMENT
Nonagricultural business expenditures for plant and equipment are expected to show a seasonal decline in the
first quarter of 1949, but present estimates run above first quarter of 1948. Railroad and utility
investment continues to increase in relative importance.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25
25
ANN UAL TOTALS
TRANSPORTATION AND
ELECTRIC AND GAS
FUTILITIES
1939
*
1941
NOT ADJUSTED FOP SEASONAL
1945
VARIATION.
SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE C O M M I S S I O N
AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal]
Transportation
Total »
Period
Manufacturing
Electric and
gas utilities
Mining
Railroad
1939
1941
1945
1946___
1947
1948 3 _
-
, _
._
___
__
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter 4 _
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter 4
__
_ _
. __
_
___
_ _
_
Other
Commercial
and miscellaneous 2
5,200
8, 190
6,630
12, 040
16, 180
18, 840
1,930
3,400
3,210
5,910
7,460
8,180
380
680
440
560
690
770
280
560
550
570
910
1,310
280
340
320
660
800
690
480
710
630
1,040
1,900
2,610
1,850
2,490
1,480
3,300
4,430
5,280
12, 640
15, 760
16, 560
19, 760
5,800
7,400
7,480
9, 160
600
640
720
840
640
880
920
1,200
720
920
800
760
1,320
1,800
2,000
2,480
3,600
4, 120
4,640
5,360
16, 680
19, 280
19, 320
20, 040
7,200
8,560
8,360
8, 640
720
800
800
720
1,080
1,240
1,320
1,600
720
760
680
640
2,000
2,560
2,760
3,120
4,960
5, 360
5,440
5,320
17, 560
7, 120
720
1,480
600
2,720
4, 880
1
2
3
4
Excludes agriculture.
Includes trade, service, finance, and communication.
Based on actual expenditures for first three quarters and estimates for the fourth quarter.
Estimates based 011 anticipated capital expenditures of business.
NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to
current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other
data.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted).
15
NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES
The seasonal increase in the 4th quarter, while less than in the preceding year, brought the yearly
total of corporate security issues close to that of 1947.
BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
3 .0
3.0
QUARTERLY AVERAGE
2.5
1939
SOURCE:
1943
SECURITIES
1945
AND EXCHANGE C O M M I S S I O N .
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars]
Proposed uses of net proceeds
Estimated
net proceeds
Period
New money
Total
1939 quarterly
1943 quarterly
1945 quarterly
1946 quarterly
1947 quarterly
1948 quarterly
average
average.
average
average.
average 2
average _
1947: First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter _
1948: First quarter
Second quarter. _ _ _
Third quarter 2
Fourth quarter
1
2
_ _
529
287
_
__
-_
_
_ _ _ _ _ _
__
___
„
. _
___
__
_
_
___
_
1,475
1, 689
1, 617
1, 599
1, 148
1, 388
402
661
692
305
338
192
347
348
727
490
310
845
555
274
280
316
214
309
221
97
1,032
1, 654
1, 614
1,663
1,266
1, 852
1,400
1,353
1,046
1, 754
1,080
884
448
210
39
42
111
291
296
356
2,000
706
1,000
Working
capital
43
35
159
529
852
1,054
1, 727
1,374
2, 311
Includes small amount for other purposes.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.
16
81
77
270
820
Plant and
equipment
Retirement
of debt and
stock »
765
1,438
1, 206
869
469
210
INVENTORIES AND SALES
Retail sales (total and department stores) and manufacturers' sales, declining more than seasonally in January,
were just above those for January 1948. Manufacturers' inventories, largely nondurable,
continued 1heir previous increase.
BILL ONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
WHOLESALE
RETAIL
20
INVEr T()RIES
y
"
I0
I—.—
X
l/\
V
.L
INVENTORIES
i i i
40
42
I
44
I
I
46
I
I
I i I l I i I l l
48
0
I947
I948
I I I I I [ I I I
40
I949
42
44
46
I I M I I I I I II
48
I I III I I I I I I I I III I I I I II
I947
I948
I949
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
MANUFACTURING
DEPARTMENT STORES
400
40
MONTHLY AVERAGE
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
INVENTORIES
L
300
**•••**
J /INVEh T(DRIES
200
I 00
0 I
I I l i I
40
42
44
0
46
48
I947
I948
I949
J^
I
40
I I I I I I I |
42
44
46
48
I I I I I I I I I II i I I I I I I I IM I I I I I I I I I II
I947
I948
I949
S O U R C E : DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE FEDERAL R E S E R V E S Y S T E M
Manufacturing 1
Period
Inventories
3
Sales
Wholesale 1
4
Inventories
3
Retail 2
Sales
4
Inventories
3
Department stores
Sales
4
u
13
t5
t6
[7
[8
t8" January
February
March
April
May
June
_ _
July
August
September
October 6 .6
November
December 6
9: January 6
.
__
II, 51 0
17, 024
19, 897
17, 924
23, 435
28, 020
31, 766
28, 501
28, 768
29, 064
29, 161
29, 437
29, 727
30, 236
30, 429
30, 710
30, 848
31, 225
31, 766
32, 200
3
4
5, 112
8, 172
12, 603
12, 371
12, 020
15, 671
17, 588
16, 552
16, 225
18, 117
17, 229
16, 777
17, 871
16, 403
18, 169
18, 781
18, 807
17, 987
18, 134
17, 100
3,200
4, 151
3,577
4,216
5,823
7, 545
8,315
7,850
7,885
7,869
7,777
7,801
7,953
7, 930
8, 100
8, 243
8,400
8, 517
8, 315
8, 543
2, 505
3, 650
4, 330
4, 777
6, 138
7, 304
7,867
7,692
7, 121
7, 726
7,652
7,389
7,766
7,796
8, 161
8, 286
8,376
8, 242
8, 196
7, 192
Sales
1935-39 = 100, seasonally
adjusted 5
Millions of dollars
£9
Inventories
5,502
7, 620
7, 350
7, 502
11, 049
12, 953
14, 556
13, 384
13, 751
14, 040
13, 907
13, 951
14, 065
14, 080
14, 145
14, 531
14, 576
14, 779
14, 556
14, 291
3, 504
4, 624
5,310
6, 387
8,399
9, 860
10, 785
10, 464
10, 463
10, 658
10, 891
10, 620
10, 862
10, 857
10, 893
10, 968
10, 894
10, 771
11,074
10, 600
102
131
155
166
213
255
292
289
303
312
308
297
285
275
268
275
282
304
306
286
106
133
168
207
264
286
302
286
286
284
306
311
312
316
312
312
306
287
309
288
5
Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for
month
and retail book'; value of inventories, end of month.
8
Preliminary estimate.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
Not adjusted for seasonal variation.
Adjusted for seasonal variation.
Book value, end of month.
Total for month.
17
EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
December exports rose sharply from the November low with settlement of maritime strikes. The November December average of exports was higher than during last summer and imports the highest since March.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
MILLIONS OF
DOLLARS
1,600
1,600
MONTHLY AVERAGES
1,400
— 1,400
1,200
I,2OO
1,000
;- 1,000
800
800
600
7- 600
400
7- 200
200
1936-38
1943
1945
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
1946
*
**
RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, AND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AREAS
RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[Millions of dollars]
Exports 1
Period
1936-38 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average-.
1948 monthly average
__
1947: November
December-^,- -1948: January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November _ ,
December
1
1
-!
_
_
.
Imports *
Excess of
exports
247
1,080
877
849
1,278
1,051
207
282
346
410
478
589
40
798
531
439
801
461
1, 189
1, 172
455
603
734
569
1,092
1,086
1,138
1, 120
1, 102
1,014
1,020
986
926
1,020
819
1,284
545
582
666
528
549
616
558
598
558
597
550
721
546
504
473
592
553
398
461
387
368
423
269
563
Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas
Recorded general merchandise imports.
Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy.
PURCHASING POWER
NATIONAL INCOME
A steady rise throughout 1948 brought total national income for the year to 224
10 percent higher than for 1947
billion dollars, about
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS
250
250
ANNUAL TOTALS
200
CORPORATE PROFITS AND
INVENTORY VALUATION i
ADJUSTMENT. vXvX-Xv
1 50
COMPENSATION OF
1944
1939
1945
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
[Billions of dollars]
Period
1939
1944
1945
1946
1947 1
1948
Total
national
income
72. 5
182. 4
181. 7
179. 3
202. 5
224. 4
Corporate profits and inventory
valuation adjustment
Compensation of
employees
Proprietors'
and rental
income
Net interest
47.8
121. 1
122. 9
117.3
127. 5
139.4
14. 7
34. 1
36. 0
41. 8
46. 0
50. 9
4. 2
3. 1
3.0
3. 4
4. 3
4. 9
Total
Profits
before
taxes
5. 8
24.0
19.8
16. 8
24. 7
29.2
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
6.5
24.3
20. 4
21.8
29. 8
32.2
0 7
-.3
6
-5.0
5 1
-3.0
28. 9
28. 8
29. 1
32.4
30. 5
32. 1
34.0
— 7. 1
-3. 6
-4.8
-4.9
-5. 3
-2.5
-3. 9
-.4
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter _.__
Second quarter
Third quarter J
Fourth quarter
197.3
199. 3
200. 6
212. 8
213. 9
222. 3
228. 2
(2)
125.0
125. 3
127. 6
132. 2
134.0
136. 3
142. 4
144. 7
46.4
44. 6
44.4
48. 6
49.9
51. 6
50. 6
51.4
4. 1
4. 2
4.4
4. 5
4. 7
4. 8
5.0
5. 2
(2)
21. 8
25.2
24. 3
27. 5
25. 3
29. 6
30. 2
(2)
1
2
Preliminary estimate; includes estimate of corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment for fourth quarter.
Not available,
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarity add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except fourth quarter, _1948).
19
CORPORATE PROFITS
Corporate profits in the first 3 quarters of 1948 ran above the 1947 levels.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
40
40
ANNUAL TOTALS
1929
•*
1939
1943
JiO ALLOWANCE FOR IHVFHTOflY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT.
SOURCE:
DEPARTMENT
OF
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
COMMERCE.
[Billions of dollars]
Corporate
profits
before taxes
Period
1929
1939
1943
1946
1947
1948
9.8
6.5
24.5
21.8
29.8
32. 2
__
_
._ _ _
Corporate
tax
liability
1.4
1.5
14.2
9.0
11. 7
12.5
Corporate profits after taxes
Total
8.4
5.0
10.4
12.8
18. 1
19. 7
Dividend
payments
5.8
3.8
4.5
5.6
6.9
7.8
Undistributed
profits
2.6
1.2
5.9
7.2
11.2
11. 9
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter..
1948: First quarterSecond quarter
Third quarter _
_.
28.9
28.8
29. 1
32.4
11.4
11.3
11.4
12.7
17.5
17.5
17.7
19.7
6.4
6.7
6.9
7. 1
11. 1
10.8
10.8
12. 6
30. 5
32. 1
34. 0
11.8
12. 5
13. 3
18. 7
19. 6
20. 8
7. 4
7. 4
7. 7
11. 3
12. 2
13. 1
NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment.
taxes and inventory valuation adjustment.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
See p. 19 for profits before
PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income in January was about the same as in December. The decrease in
s a l a r i e s and wages was o f f s e t by increases in other components.
BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S
BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S
250
25 0
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
1949
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT
OF COMMERCE.
C O U N C I L OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[Billions of dollars]
Total
personal
income
Period
1939
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
_
_
_--_ _-
72. 6
164. 5
170. 3
178. 1
195. 2
213. 6
Salaries, wages, Proprietors'
and other
and rental
labor income
income
45.7
116. 1
116.8
111. 4
121. 9
134. 3
14. 7
34. 1
36.0
41. 8
46. 0
50. 9
security
Dividends SocialGI
payand interest andments
9. 2
10.6
11. 4
13. 5
15. 6
17. 2
3.0
3.6
6. 2
11.4
11.7
11. 1
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947* December
1948"
January
February
March
April
_
-- -
Mav
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1949- January
l
_ __
207. 7
129. 3
51. 3
16. 2
10. 9
208. 8
206.4
205.7
208. 6
209. 2
214. 4
214. 8
216. 7
217. 3
218. 5
219. 9
221.0
129. 3
128. 8
128. 5
128. 8
131. 0
133. 4
135. 5
138. 0
138. 8
139. 6
140. 1
139. 8
51. 8
49. 6
48. 4
51. 2
50. 4
53. 0
51. 2
50. 3
50. 4
50. 7
51.4
52. 1
16. 5
16. 6
16. 6
16. 7
16. 8
16. 9
17. 0
17. 3
17. 5
17. 8
18. 1
18. 4
11. 2
11. 4
12. 2
11. 9
11. 0
11. 1
11. 1
11. 1
10. 6
10. 4
10. 3
10. 7
220.8
138. 1
53.0
18. 6
11. 1
1
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
21
CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING
At the end of the year consumers' saving was apparently running at an annual rate of about 18 billion
dollars--considerably more than the estimates for 1946 and 1947.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
ANNUAL TOTALS
200
I 00
50
1940
1939
SOURCE:
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
[Billions of dollars]
Less: Personal
consumption
expenditures
Disposable
personal
income l
Period
70.2
75. 7
92.0
116.2
131.6
145.6
149.4
159.2
173.6
192. 6
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944.
1945
1946_
1947
1948
Equals: Personal saving
67.5
72. 1
82.3
90.8
101.6
111. 4
122.8
147.4
164.8
177. 7
2.7
3.7
9.8
25. 4
30.0
34.2
26.6
11. 8
8.8
14. 9
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
.
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
_
- _
_ _
1
_ _ _ _
„ _
_
_
169.7
168.2
175.0
180.9
158.1
164.2
165.6
171. 1
11. 6
4. 1
9.4
9.7
183.
179.
196.
199.
172.
177.
180.
181.
11. 4
12. 9
16. 1
18.4
Income less taxes.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except fourth quarter, 1948).
9
2
2
4
5
3
1
0
PER CAPITA
INCOME
The last quarter of 1948 registered a moderate gain in the real purchasing power of
consumers, reflecting a continued rise in incomes and a drop in prices.
DOLLARS
1,600
DOLLARS
1,600
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
1947 DOLLARS*
1,200
1,200
CURRENT DOLLARS
1939
#"* CURRENT
1940
1941
1942
1945
1944
1943
I
2
3
1946
I
2
3
1947
2
3
1948
DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE 1 9 4 7 = 1 0 0
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF
COMMERCE
AND DEPARTMENT
OF L A B O R .
Period
1939
1940
1941
_.
1942
1943 .
1944
1945 .
1946
1947
1948
_ .
_ _ _
.__ _-_ _ _
_ _
._
Per capita disposable
personal
income l
Current
1947 dollars *
dollars
$536
$859
574
913
691
1,047
.„
1, 169
863
964
1,217
1,054
1,295
1,070
1,280
1, 127
1,258
1,205
1,205
1,313
1, 223
Annual rates, seasonally
adjusted
1947 1 First quarter
.. >
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
_„_..
1948: First quarter _
_
Second quarter. _ _ _ _ _
Third quarter
Fourth quarter _ _
_
_
_
_ _
_ „
$1, 186
1, 170
1,212
1,246
1,262
1,300
1, 335
1,351
$1,218
1, 193
1,201
1,203
1,200
1,215
1,221
1, 249
Consumers'
price index 3
1947=100
62.4
62.9
66. 0
73.8
79.2
81.4
83. 6
89.6
100.0
107. 4
Not adjusted
for seasonal
variation
97.4
98. 1
100.9
103. 6
105. 2
107. 0
109. 3
108. 2
1
2
3
Income less taxes.
Current dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base 1947=100.
The consumers' price index has been roughly adjusted to take account of the understatement from
December 1941—February 1947. This adjustment is in line with the report of the Mitchell Committee. The
unadjusted index will be found on page 2.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor (except fourth quarter, 1948).
23
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS
Except for employees in retail trade, average hourly earnings continued to rise modestly in December. Preliminary
data for January show a further increase in manufacturing industries.
DOLL ARS PER HOUR
DOLLARS PER HOUR
RETAIL TRADE
ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
2.00
2.00
1.50
_mmm« —~**"r'
-V^,
<3r
1.00
1.50
[ )0 LLARS*
1948
1948
1.00
CURRE ^JT DOLLARS
f
i n i i i i i i
40
42
44
46
ft 1 1 (7777777
48
Mill
1947
INN
1 1 1 1 1
1948
Mill
—-;X \
0
1
1
40
1949
1
1
1
42
-X,f
1.50
/
-s
1947
1948
1949
D OL L A R S *
-V~~p;^^^^^
7
/
CURF Ef JT DOLLARS
1.00
MONTHLY
.50
i i i i i i i i i
40
48
,-'- 7
S^
.50
*
i I I I i i M I I 1 1 i iTTTTT i i i 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 i i
1
1948
J CUF*R INT DOLLARS
0
1
46
y
J*****
* ^*»%
30 LLARSȣ>* PT'ailmrnir^
,/--f
1.00
CURREINT DOLLARS
PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
2.00
1948 ;/
1
44
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
2.00
I.5O
~£*>^fl»^8tf&9fc
50
.50
0
>,
^^
f=-i
C )0l-LARS*
42
44
46
48
1 1 i i i Fi i M i 1 i 1 1 1 1 M i l l i i i i i ! 1 1 1 1 1
1947
1948
0
AVERAGE
;
i ,r 1 1 1 1 rrn
40
1949
42
44
46
,
1 I 1 i i m MI 1 1 i i i i 1 1 ! i i i 1 1 i i M I i i i i
48
1947
1948
1949
CUfk RENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY CONSUMERS'" PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE 1946 = 100
SOURC:E:
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
[Selected industries]
Manufacturing
Period
Current
dollars
1948
dollars
Retail trade
2
Current
dollars
Bituminous coal mining
1948
dollars
2
Current
dollars
1948
dollars 2
Private building
construction x
Current
dollars
1948
dollars 2
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average _ _
monthly average 3
monthly average _
0. 633
. 729
1. 019
1.023
1. 084
1. 221
1. 327
1.090
1. 187
1.381
1.313
1.230
1. 311
1.327
0. 536
.568
. 724
. 773
.878
. 991
1.067
0. 923
.925
.981
. 992
1. 053
1. 064
1.067
0. 886
.993
1. 186
1. 240
1. 401
1. 633
1. 897
1. 525
1. 617
1. 607
1. 592
1. 680
1. 754
1.897
0. 932
1.010
1. 319
1. 379
1.478
1. 681
1. 868
1. 604
1. 645
1.787
1. 770
1. 772
1. 806
1. 868
1948: January
February
March
April
_
__ _ _
May
June
_ _
July
August _
September _ _ _ _
October _3
November 3
December
_
1.285
1. 287
1. 289
1. 292
1. 301
1. 316
1. 332
I. 349
1. 362
1. 366
1. 371
1. 376
1. 303
1.316
1. 322
1.306
1. 306
1. 312
1. 312
1. 324
1.337
1. 347
1.363
1.375
1. 044
1. 050
1.044
1. 055
1.064
1.070
1. 077
1. 080
1. 086
1.080
1. 084
1.072
1.059
1. 074
1.071
1.067
1. 068
1.067
1. 061
1. 060
1. 066
1. 065
1. 078
1.071
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1. 873
1.867
1.889
1. 841
1.848
1. 844
1. 907
1.930
1. 933
1.932
1. 939
1.953
1. 781
1. 806
1. 805
1. 818
1. 835
1. 858
1. 890
1. 901
1. 919
1.919
1. 929
1. 949
1. 806
1. 847
1.851
1.838
1.842
1. 852
1. 862
1.866
1. 883
l!892
1.917
1. 947
3
1. 384
1. 387
1939
1941
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949: January
1
2
3
4
Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1948=100.
Preliminary estimate.
Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
Source: Department of Labor.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
OA
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
4
847
826
842
821
841
850
936
967
970
959
951
955
See note 3 to table on page 23.
4
AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS
1
A general increase in both hours of work and hourly earnings resulted in increases in average weekly earnings
n December. Preliminary January data show this trend altered in manufacturing industries.
DOL L A R S
PER WEEK
D O L L A R S PER. WEEK
60
40
RETAIL TRADE
MANUFACTURING
A
f
•60
\I948DOLLARS**
-.^v-^--^ *^±^&*
mmt
S r^/
-T+
1948 D 0 _L,ARS**
/
CURREN- • c)OLLARS
/
\ ,
40
^
•*»-**»*
^^^CURREN- • [COLLARS
20
20
MONTHLY AVERAGE
i ii ii ti ii ii
0
40
42
44
46
48
I I I II I I i I II
1947
1 1 1 1 1 i ! 1 1 1 1
1948
0
t
i i i i i1 i i i ii
i 1 i i i 1 i i
40
1949
42
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
44
46
48
,, I M I , M M
1947
1948
1949
PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
100
100
MONTHLY AVERAGE
1948 D OL.LARS**
80
J
r7
20
0
Spy*
I
1
y
/CURRENT " I)OLLARS
40
/
40
\3*^
60
/CURREN" r i )OLlARS.
*
40
1948 D 0 .LARS**
f'1
'-' 'X
60
80
Y*N/*V
20
I
1
42
!
44
!
1
1
46
1
I ! I I I I I ! I II
48
1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 I II
M i l l I I i I I1
1947
1948
1 1 t 1 1 I 1 1 M
0
40
1949
42
44
46
48
n i n I i MM
1
I948
1947
I I I I I I I I M I
I949
00
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC
ADVISERS
[Selected industries]
Manufacturing
Period
1939 monthly average _ _
1941 monthly average _ _
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average _
1946 monthly average.
1947 monthly average 3
1948 monthly average
1948: January
_
February
March
April
May
_ _
June
July
August
September
October 3
November
December 3
1949* January 3
Current
dollars
_
23. 86
29. 58
46. 08
44. 39
43. 74
49. 25
53. 16
52.07
51. 75
52.07
51. 79
51.86
52. 85
52.95
54. 05
54. 18
54. 65
54. 57
55. 10
54.77
1948 dollars
41. 07
48. 18
62.44
56. 98
52. 45
52. 90
53. 16
52. 81
52. 91
53.41
52.37
52. 07
52. 69
52. 17
53. 04
53. 17
53.90
54. 24
55.04
54.88
Bituminous coal mining
Retail trade
Current
dollars
21. 17
21.94
26. 58
28. 31
32. 55
36. 67
39. 80
37. 62
38. 33
38. 89
39. 27
39.84
40. 52
41. 19
41. 19
40.48
40. 32
39. 67
40. 27
1948 dollars
36. 44
35. 73
36. 02
36. 34
39. 03
39. 39
39.80
38. 15
39. 19
39. 89
39. 71
40.00
40. 40
40. 58
40. 42
39.73
39. 76
39. 43
40. 23
Current
dollars
4
1948 dollars
23. 88
30. 86
51. 27
52. 25
58. 03
66.86
72. 07
75.78
70. 54
74.84
49. 53
74.08
73.87
67. 62
78. 10
75. 52
76.40
73. 52
75. 06
4
41. 10
50. 26
69.47
67.07
69. 58
71.81
72. 07
76.86
72. 13
76. 76
50. 08
74.38
73. 65
66. 62
76. 64
74. 11
75.34
73. 08
74.98
Private building construction
Current
dollars
30. 39
35. 14
52. 18
53.73
56. 24
63. 30
69. 72
66.28
66. 31
66.89
67. 31
68. 13
70. 49
71.38
71. 89
72. 06
71. 69
70. 73
73.44
1948 dollars
52.31
57.23
70.70
68. 97
67.43
67. 99
69.72
67. 22
67.80
68. 61
68.06
68. 40
70. 28
70. 33
70.55
70. 72
70.70
70. 31
73.37
1
2
3
4
Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1948=100. See note 3 to table on page 23.
Preliminary estimate.
Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
Source: Department of Labor.
25
FARM INCOME
Cash farm income in January was at about the same level as a year previous,
measured either in current dollars or in dollars of constant purchasing power.
ILLIONS OF D O L L A R S
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4
4
MONTHLY
AVERAGE
CURRENT DOLLARS*
1939
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
MJ
NCtUDfS CASH FARM INCOME FHOM FROM
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
Farm income
(millions of
current
dollars) »
Period
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average _ _
1942 monthly average
1 943 monthly average _ _
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average__
__
_
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average _ _
1948 monthly average
1948' January
February
_ _
_
_
March
April
May _
_
__
June
July
August
September
__
October
November
_
December
1949: January 4
Prices paid by
farmers (incl. Farm income
(millions of
interest and
taxes) 1948
= 1948 dollars) 3
2
100
723
981
_ _
___
___
-_
1 340
1, 678
1 753
1, 857
2 136
2, 542
2, 609
2 571
1, 862
1, 932
2, 075
2, 119
2,437
2, 693
2, 722
3, 132
3, 714
3, 314
2, 740
2, 540
1
Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments.
2
Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1948=100.
3
Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest,
4
Preliminary.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
49 8
53. 0
60 2
65. 1
67 9
69. 1
77. 5
92. 8
100. 0
100. 8
99. 6
99. 2
100. 0
100. 4
100. 8
100. 8
100. 8
100. 4
100. 0
99. 2
99. 6
99. 6
and taxes, 1948=100.
1, 452
1, 851
2, 226
2, 578
2, 582
2, 687
2, 756
2,739
2, 609
2, 551
1, 869
1, 948
2,075
2, 111
2, 418
2,672
2, 700
3, 120
3, 714
3,341
2, 751
2, 550
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Expenditures for both durable and nondurable goods increased less in 1948 than in 1947.
for services, however, increased more than in the preceding year.
Expenditures
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
200
20O
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
ANNUAL TOTALS
1944
1939
SOURCE:
DEPARTMENT
1945
OF COMMERCE
C O U N C I L O F ECONOMIC
ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Personal consumption expenditures
Period
Nondurable
goods
Total
1939
1944
1945
1946.
1947
1948
67. 5
111.4
122.8
147. 4
164. 8
177. 7
35.3
67.5
75. 4
87. 5
96.5
103. 6
Durable
goods
6.7
. 6.9
8.3
16.2
21.0
22. 7
Services
25. 5
37.0
39.2
43. 6
47.3
51.4
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter _
Fourth quarter
_ _ _
_ _
_
158. 1
164.2
165. 6
171. 1
92.5
96.3
96.8
100. 2
19.6
21. 1
21. 1
22. 1
46.0
46.7
47.7
48.8
172. 5
177. 3
180. 1
181.0
101.4
103. 7
104. 3
105. 1
21. 3
22. 8
23. 7
22. 9
49. 8
50. 8
52. 1
53.0
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except fourth quarter, 1948).
27
CONSUMER CREDIT
Repayment of charge accounts reduced total consumer credit about $ 500 million in January.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2 0
1939
1943
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2 0
1946
1947
1948
1948
END OF YEAR
END OF MONTH
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
End of period
Total
consumer
credit
outstanding
_ _
7. 6
8. 0
9. 9
5. 3
6. 6
10, 1
13. 4
16. 0
13. 1
13. 1
13. 5
13. 8
14.0
14.3
14.4
14.5
14. 8
15. 1
15. 3
16. 0
15. 4
1929.
1939_
1941.
1943
194519461947.
1948_
1948: January
February _
March
__
April
_
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December.
1949: January 3
__
_
__
_
_ _
_ _
Instalment
credit *
3. 2
4. 4
5. 9
1. 9
2. 3
3. 9
6. 2
&2
6. 2
6. 3
6. 6
Charge
accounts
1. 7
1. 5
1. 8
1. 5
2. 0
3. 1
3. 6
3. 9
3. 2
3. 1
3. 3
3.2
3.2
3.4
3.2
6.8
7.0
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.8
7.8
7.9
8.2
3.2
3.5
3.6
3.9
8. 1
3. 5
3. 1
Other
consumer
credit 3
2.7
2.0
2.2
1. 9
2. 3
3. 1
3.6
3.9
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.9
3. 9
3.9
1
Includes automobile and other sale credit and repair and modernization loans insured by Federal Housing Administration.
2
Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit.
8
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
28
MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS
In January banks decreased their total volume of outstanding loans and increased
their holdings of Government securities.
ONS OF D O L L A R S
125 -
125
__
100 -
100
::::: INVESTMENT
IN
:j:
S . G O V E R N M E N T SECURIT ES
75 -
50 -
////
V///
25 -
25
-
^
j
I
1929
1939
1945
1947
END OF Y E A R
1948
1949
END OF MONTH
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
SOURCE: Board of Govi
[Billions of dollars]
Investments
Total
End of period
investments
1929
1939
1945
1946 .
1947
1948
_._ _ _
__ _
._ _
1948: January
FebruaryMarch
April.
May June
July
_._
August
September
October
November.
December..1949' January
___ _ _ _
1
_
_ _
._
__
_
_
Total
U.S.
Government
securities
Other
securities
49. 5
40. 7
124. 0
114,0
116.4
114. 3
36.0
17. 2
26. 1
31. 1
38. 1
42. 7
13.5
23. 4
97. 9
82.9
78. 3
71. 6
4.8
16.3
90. 6
74.8
69. 3
62. 5
8. 7
7. 1
7.3
8. 1
9.0
9. 1
116. 6
115. 5
113. 6
114. 3
114.5
113. 9
114.8
115. 1
113. 6
114. 1
114.2
114. 3
38.2
38. 7
38. 9
38.8
39.4
39. 9
40.1
40. 6
41.7
41. 6
42.3
42. 7
78.4
76.9
74. 7
75. 5
75. 1
74.0
74.6
74.5
71.9
72.5
71.9
71.6
69. 4
67.9
65.5
66.3
65.9
64.8
65. 3
65. 1
62.5
63.3
62.8
62. 5
9.0
9.0
9.3
9.2
9.2
9.2
9.3
9.4
9.4
9.2
9. 1
9. 1
114. 4
42.4
72. 0
63.0
9. 1
1
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
29
MONEY SUPPLY
The total money supply fell about $800 million in January and was less than a year ago.
BILLIONS
OF D O L L A R S
B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS
200
200
TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY
( EXCLUDING U.S.GOV'T. DEPOSITS)
TIME DEPOSITS
{ADJUSTED DEMAND DEPOSITS '
CURRENCY OUTSIDE BANKS
.!...!
1939
1943
1946
1947
1948
J
F
1
A
END OF YEAR
SOURCE:
1
i
M
M
J
J
J...I...I
1
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
I
A
1947
I. I J
M
J
J
A
(
L.i
S
O
I
N
i
D
J
F
M
'948
END OF MONTH
A
M
J
J
1
A
1
S
1949
BOARD OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE S Y S T E M .
COUNCIL OF i
[Billions of dollars]
Total money
supply
End of period
1929
1939
1941
1943
1945
1946.
19^7
1948_
1948: January
February __
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December _
1949: January 8
.
_
__ _ __
,
__ _ __
__
_ _
_ _
54. 6
63.3
76. 3
112.3
150. 9
164.0
170. 0
168.8
168.9
167. 1
164.0
165. 0
165.2
165. 7
166.2
166.7
166.9
168. 0
167.9
168. 7
168.0
Currency
outside
banks
3 6
6.4
9. 6
18. 8
26. 5
26. 7
26. 5
25. 7
25. 8
25. 7
25.6
25.4
25.4
25. 6
25. 5
25. 6
25.7
25. 7
25. 9
25. 7
25. 2
Adjusted
demand
deposits 1
22 8
29 8
39 0
60 8
75 9
83 3
87 1
85 8
86. 6
84 6
81. 5
82 7
82. 8
82 7
83 4
83.8
83. 9
85 0
85. 0
85 8
85. 3
Time
deposits 2
28 2
27 1
27 7
32 7
48 5
54 0
56 4
57 3
56 5
56 8
56 9
56 9
57 0
57 4
57 3
57. 3
57 3
57 3
57 0
57 3
57 6
1
Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection.
2
Includes
deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System.
1
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
30
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1
O
1
N
D
FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM
AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC
Cash payments during the fourth quarter exceeded receipts by nearly I billion dollars, in contrast
with a substantial cash surplus for the same quarters of the two preceding years.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
I6
16
CASH RECEIPTS
CASH PAYMENTS
I 2
1946
1947
1948
1949
E X C E S S OF CASH RECEIPTS
m
EXCESS OF CASH
1948
1947
1946
CALENDAR
1949
YEARS
SOURCE: BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT.
[Millions of dollars]
Excess of receipts ( + ) or
payments ( — )
Federal cash
receipts from
the public 1
Federal cash
payments to
the public 1
41, 426
44, 279
44, 933
41, 372
38, 584
36, 954
+ 54
+ 5, 695
+ 7, 979
12,
9,
9,
9,
632
462
702
630
12,
12,
8,
8,
244
008
449
671
+ 388
— 2 547
+ 1 252
+ 959
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
14,
9,
10,
9,
345
847
220
869
9,
10,
10,
8,
163
628
257
536
+ 5 182
— 781
— 37
+ 1 331
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
15,
10,
10,
9,
037
238
085
573
8,
9,
8,
10,
637
033
798
486
+ 6 400
+ 1 205
+ 1, 287
— 913
Calendar years
Calendar vear total:
1946*
_
1947
1948
_
__
__
Quarterly total, not adjusted for seasonal:
1946: First quarter
Second quarter
_
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
_
1
Payments of refunds of Government receipts are now reported as deductions from total receipts; previously, they were reported as expenditures.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget.
o
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31
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