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98th Congress, 2d Session

Economic Indicators
JUNE 1984
Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the




Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1984

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
ROGER W. JEPSEN, Iowa, Chairman
LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Vice Chairman
SENATE
WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)
JAMES ABDNOR (South Dakota)
STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho)
MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia)
ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York)
LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas)
WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin)
EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)
PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana)
PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland)
AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California)
DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin)
JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York)
CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio)
MARJORIE S. HOLT (Maryland)
DAN LUNGREN (California)
OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine)

DAN C, ROBERTS, tixecuiwe JJmctor

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
MARTIN FELDSTEIN, Chairman
WILLIAM A. NISKANEN, Member
WILLIAM POOLE, Member
[PUBLIC LAW 120—SlST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and Home of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the
Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication en tided " Economic Indicators/* and that
a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant
at Arms, of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two
copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the
Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for
distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies
printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.
Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $4.25 a single copy
($5.35 foreign), or by subscription at $25.00 per year ($31.25 for foreign
mailing) from:
SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402




TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
According to very preliminary ("flash") estimates for the second quarter of 1984, gross national product is
expected to rise $74.5 billion or 8.7 percent, both at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) is
expected to rise 5.7 percent (annual rate) and the implicit price deflator, 2.8 percent (annual rate).
BILLIOrsIS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
4,000 —

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO «SCALE)
4,000
—.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

3,600

3,600

3,200

E
—

—

^

__

^^"

GNP
_^_
IN CURRENT DOLLARS^X**

~

2,800

2,800

2,400

E

^

—

2,000

1,600

3,200

~-^C
III

1,200

,X]

III

1976

1977

_

2,400

^

_

2,000

E

GNP
Ih 1972 DOLLAR 5

1,600

i*
\
J
^ ^JL — "

1 1 1

i i i

I I !

1 I !

1 ! 1

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1

1

1

1

1 1

1,200

1984

1983

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Gross
national
product

Period

1972
1973

1974
1975
1976.
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
.
1983
1982- I

.

1,185.9
,326.4
,434.2
,549.2
,718.0
,918.3
2,163.9
2,417.8
2,631.7
2,954.1
3,073.0
3,310.5

n
m

3,021.4
3,070.2
3,090.7
3,109.6

n
in

3,171.5
3,272.0
3,362.2
3,436.2

IV
1983: I

IV
1984- I r
jj*

3,550.1
3 6246

'Very preliminary ("flash") estimate.




Personal
consumption
expenditures

737.1
812.0
888.1
976.4
1,084.3
1,204.4
1,346.5
1,507.2
1,668.1
1,857.2
1,991.9
2,158.0
1,938.9
1,972.8
2,008.8
2,046.9
2,073.0
2,147.0
2,181.1
2,230.9
2,286.2

Gross
private
domestic
investment

Exports and imports of goods and
services

Federal
Net
exports

195.0
229.8
228.7
206.1
257.9
324.1
386.6
423.0
401.9
474.9
414.5
471.9

0.7
14.2
13.4
26.8
13.8
-4.0
-1.1
13.2
23.9
26.3
17.4
-9.0

422.9
432.5
425.3
377.4

29.9
33.3
.9
5.6
17.0
-8.5
-18.3
-26.1
-48.2

404.1
450.1
501.1
532.5
604.6

Government purchases of
goods and services

Exports

77.5
109.6
146.2
154.9
170.9
182.7
218.7
281.4
338.8
368.8
347.6
335.4
358.4
364.5
346.0
321.6
326.9
327.1
341.1
346.5
358.8

Imports

76.7
95.4
132.8
128.1
157.1
186.7
219.8
268.1
314.8
342.5
330.2
344.4
328.5
331.2
345.0
316.1
309.9
335.6
359.4
372.6
407.0

Total

Total

253.1
270.4
304.1
339.9
362.1
393.8
431.9
474.4
537.8
595.7
649.2
689.5
629.8
631.6
655.7
679.7
677.4
683.4
698.3
699.0
707.6

101.7
102.0
111.0
122.7
129.2
143.4
153.6
168.3
197.0
229.2
258.7
274.8
249.7
244.1
261.7
279.2
273.5
273.7
278.1
274.1
271.9

National
defense

73.1
72.8
77.0
83.0
86.0
92.8
100.3
111.8
131.2
154.0
179.4
200.3
168.1
175.2
183.6
190.8
194.4
199.4
201.2
206.3
212.7

Nondefense

28.5
29.1
33.9
39.7
43.2
50.6
53.3
56.5
65.9
75.2
79.3
74.5
81.7
68.9
78.1
88.5
79.1
74.3
76.9
67.8
59.2

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

State and
local

151.4
168.5
193.1
217.2
232.9
250.4
278.3
306.0
340.8
366.5
390.5
414.7
380.0
387.5
394.0
400.5
404.0
409.7
420.2
424.9
435.7

Final
sales

1,175.7
1,307.9
1,420.1
1,556.1
1,706.2
1,895.3
2,137.4
2,403.5
2,641.5
2,935.6
3,097.5
3,316.9
3,047.1
3,081.4
3,095.6
3,165.9
3,210.9
3,286.6
3,353.7
3,416.6
3,479.1

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS
[Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1972
1973
1974.
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983.

Gross
national
product

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Gross private
domestic investment

Nonresidential
fixed

Residential fixed

n

TTT

IV

1983: I

n
ra
IY

1984: I r

n*

Change
in
business
inventories

Government purchases of
goods and services
Federal

Net
exports

Exports

Imports

Total
Total

National
defense

Nondefense

State
and local

Final
sales

0.7
15.5
27.8
32.2
25.4
22.0
24.0
37.2
50.3
43.0
28.9
11.8

77.5
97.3
108.5
103.5
110.1
112.9
126.7
146.2
159.1
159.7
147.3
138.7

76.7
81.8
80.7
71.4
84.7
90.9
102.7
109.0
108.8
116.7
118.4
126.9

253.1
253.3
260.3
265.2
265.2
269.2
274.6
278.3
284.3
286.5
291.8
293.1

101.7
95.9
96.6
97.4
96.8
100.4
100.3
102.1
106.4
110.4
116.6
117.8

73.1
68.3
66.9
66.4
64.9
65.4
65.7
67.4
70.0
73.6
78.8
84.3

28.5
27.6
29.7
31.0
31.8
35.0
34.7
34.8
36.4
36.8
37.8
33.6

151.4
157.4
163.6
167.8
168.4
168.8
174.3
176.2
177.9
176.1
175.2
175.3

1,175.7
1,237.1
1,234.7
1,238.4
1,290.4
1,356.4
1,422.6
1,472.2
1,479.4
1,505.3
,494.8
,537.4

-10.2
-3.4
-1.3
-22.7

35.2
33.4
24.0
23.0

151.8
154.5
146.4
136.5

116.6
121.1
122.4
113.5

289.4
285.8
292.2
299.7

114.5
110.3
116.9
124.4

75.5
77.8
80.4
81.4

39.1
32.5
36.5
43.0

174.9
175.4
175.3
175.2

,495.9
,492.7
,487.0
,503.4

45.5
52.6
56.8
55.8

-15.4
-5.4
3.8
8.7

20.5
12.3
11.4
2.8

137.3
136.2
140.7
140.6

116.8
123.9
129.2
137.8

292.9
292.1
295.2
292.3

118.4
117.6
118.9
116.4

82.7
84.2
84.2
85.8

35.7
33.4
34.7
30.5

174.5
174.5
176.3
175.9

,505.5
,530.5
,549.7
,563.7

59.2

30.7

144.4

151.9

291.0

113.8

87.1

26.6

177.2

1,185.9
1,254.3
1,246.3
1,231.6
1,298.2
1,369.7
1,438.6
1,479.4
1,475.0
1,513.8
1,485.4
1,535.3

1982- I ... .

Exports of goods
and services

737.1
767.9
762.8
779.4
823.1
864.3
903.2
927.6
931.8
956.8
970.2
1,011.4

121.0
138.1
135.7
119.3
125.6
140.3
158.3
169.9
165.8
174.4
166.1
168.4

1,485.8
1,489.3
1,485.7
1,480.7

961.4
968.8
971.0
979.6

173.6
167.1
163.3
160.5

36.3
37.8
36.5
40.6

1,490.1
,525.1
,553.4
,572.5

986.7
1,010.6
1,016.0
1,032.2

159.9
163.0
170.1
180.7

,609.3
,631.6

1,048.3

187.6

10.2
17.2
11.6
-6.7
7.8
13.3
16.0
7.3
-4.4
8.5
-9.4
-2.1

63.8
62.3
48.2
42.2
51.2
60.7
62.4
59.1
47.1
44.7
37.8
52.7

-7.5

'Very preliminary ("flash") estimate.

1,578.6

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
[1972=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]
Personal consumption
expenditures
Period

Gross
national
product

Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable
goods

Gross private
domestic investment

Services

Exports and imports of
goods and services

Government purchases of goods and
services
Federal

Nonresidential
fixed

Residential fixed

Exports

Imports
Total

National
defense

Nondefense

State
and local

1972
1973
1974.....
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

100.00
105.75
115.08
125.79
132.34
140.05
150.42
163.42
178.42
195.14
206.88
215.63

100.0
105.7
116.4
125.3
131.7
139.3
149.1
162.5
179.0
194.1
205.3
213.4

100.0
101.7
108.2
117.3
123.9
129.2
136.4
145.0
156.2
167.3
174.8
178.7

100.0
108.5
123.4
132.5
137.2
143.6
153.4
169.9
188.1
202.5
209.0
213.8

100.0
104.7
113.0
121.6
129.6
139.3
150.0
162.3
178.8
195.8
211.6
224.3

100.0
103.8
115.4
132.2
138.6
146.3
157.2
170.8
186.2
201.9
209.7
206.8

100.0
109.1
120.3
131.0
140.7
158.0
178.3
200.5
218.5
233.5
240.2
246.8

100.0
112.7
134.8
149.6
155.3
161.9
172.6
192.5
212.9
230.8
236.0
241.8

100.0
116.7
164.6
179.6
185.6
205.5
214.1
246.1
289.4
293.4
278.9
271.3

100.0
106.3
114.9
126.0
133.5
142.8
153.1
164.8
185.2
207.7
222.0
233.3

100.0
106.6
115.1
124.9
132.4
141.9
152.7
166.0
187.5
209.3
227.7
237.7

100.0
105.6
114.2
128.2
135.7
144.6
153.8
162.5
180.8
204.5
210.0
222.0

100.0
107.0
118.0
129.4
138.3
148.4
159.7
173.7
191.5
208.1
222.9
236.6

1982: I

203.36
206.15
208.03
210.00

201.7
203.6
206.9
209.0

172.9
174.2
176.1
176.1

206.8
207.6
210.2
211.2

206.3
209.4
213.4
217.2

208.1
211.1
209.6
209.9

240.8
240.9
240.9
238.4

236.1
236.0
236.3
235.6

281.8
273.6
281.8
278.5

218.0
221.3
223.8
224.4

222.7
225.1
228.3
234.3

209.1
212.3
213.9
205.7

217.3
220.9
224.7
228.5

212.83
214.55
216.44
218.53

210.1
212.5
214.7
216.1

177.3
177.5
179.1
180.7

210.6
213.4
215.5
215.7

219.8
223.1
225.7
228.6

207.7
206.3
206.3
207.0

244.9
243.9
249.0
248.7

238.0
240.2
242.5
246.4

265.4
270.7
278.1
270.3

230.9
232.7
233.8
235.6

234.9
236.7
238.8
240.3

221.7
222.6
221.7
222.2

231.6
234.8
238.3
241.5

220.60
222 15

218.1

181.1

217.7

231.6

205.6

249.9

248.4

268.0

239.0

244.1

222.2

245.8

n

TTT

IV

1983- I

n

TTT..
IV
1984: I r.

n*

'Very preliminary ("flash") estimate.




Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND
RELATED PRICE MEASURES
[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gross national product

Period

1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1982- I

10.1
11.8
8.1
8.0
10.9
11.7
12.8
11.7
8.8
12.2
4.0
7.7
14
6.6
2.7
2.5
8.2
13.3
11.5
9.1
13.9
8.7

„

n

TIT

IV
1983: I

n
m
IV

1984- I r

n*

.

Constant
(1972)
dollars

Current
dollars

..

5.7
5.8
-.6
-1.2
5.4
5.5
5.0
2.8
-.3
2.6
-1.9
3.4
5.5
1.0
-1.0
-1.3
2.6
9.7
7.6
5.0
9.7
5.7

Implicit
price
deflator

Personal consumption expenditures

Chain price
index

4.2
5.8
8.8
9.3
5.2
5.8
7.4
8.6
9.2
9.4
6.0
4.2
4.3
5.6
3.7
3.8
5.5
3.3
3.6
3.9
3.9
2.8

Fixedweighted
price index
(1972
weights)

4.0
6.0
9.4
9.1
5.8
6.3
7.8
9.5
9.8
9.5
6.4
4.3
5.3
4.7
5.9
4.7
3.4
4.3
4.7
4.2
4.9
3.5

4.1
6.0
9.1
9.2
5.7
6.1
7.6
8.9
8.9
9.4
6.5
4.4
5.6
5.2
5.9
5.0
3.6
4.3
4.5
4.4
4.7

Constant
(1972)
dollars

Current
dollars

9.6
10.2
9.4
9.9
11.0
11.1
11.8
11.9
10.7
11.3
7.3
8.3
7.5
7.2
7.5
7.8
5.2
15.1
6.5
9.4
10.3

Implicit
price
deflator

5.8
4.2
-.7
2.2
5.6
5.0
4.5
2.7
.5
2.7
1.4
4.2
2.4
3.1
.9
3.6
2.9
10.0
2.2
6.5
6.4

Chain price
index

3.7
5.7
10.1
7.6
5.1
5.8
7.0
9.0
10.2
8.4
5.8
3.9
5.0
4.0
6.5
4.1
2.2
4.6
4.2
2.8
3.6

Fixedweighted
price index
(1972
weights)

3.6
6.1
10.4
7.7
5.3
6.0
7.3
9.3
10.7
9.0
5.9
4.2
5.2
3.9
6.4
5.1
2.3
4.7
4.2
4.3
4.5

3.5
6.1
10.4
7.8
5.3
6.2
7.4
9.7
11.1
9.2
5.7
4.1
4.8
3.5
6.7
5.1
1.6
4.9
4.4
4.2
4.5

NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

'Very preliminary ("flash") estimates.

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND
PROFITS
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollars) *

Gross domestic
product of nonfinancial
corporate business
(billions of dollars)

Period
Current
dollars

1972
dollars

Total
cost and
profit 2

Capital
consumption
allowances
with
capital
consumption
adjustment

Indirect
business
taxes 3

Compensation of
employees

Corporate profits with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments
f Net
interest

Total

Profits
tax
liability

Profits
after
tax 4

Output
per hour
of all
employees (1972
dollars)

Compensation per
hour of
all
employees
(dollars)

1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

678.0
759.4
818.9
890.0
1,001.3
1,128.4
1,276.2
1,416.8
1,540.7
1,739.9
1,776.7
1,921.7

678.0
731.9
708.2
694.2
745.5
795.8
846.3
876.1
859.5
887.5
857.7
895.2

1.000
1.038
1.156
1.282
1.343
1.418
1.508
1.617
1.793
1.960
2.072
2.147

0.092
.093
.112
.137
.141
.145
.155
.171
.198
.217
.245
.244

0.113
.114
.127
.140
.141
.141
.144
.149
.172
.199
.209
.220

0.659
.692
.786
.837
.878
.928
.998
1.094
1.218
1.302
1.397
1.418

0.028
.031
.042
.044
.040
.040
.044
.050
.065
.074
.076
.066

0.107
.107
.090
.124
.144
.163
.168
.154
.140
.169
.145
.199

0.049
.055
.059
.059
.071
.075
.079
.079
.078
.074
.048
.063

0.058
.053
.030
.065
.073
.088
.089
.075
.062
.095
.097
.136

7.664
7.849
7.555
7.774
8.002
8.144
8.216
8.201
8.126
8.332
8.372
8.649

1982: TTT
IV

1,786.8
1,775.0

859.5
846.4

2.079
2.097

.247
.254

.209
.215

1.403
1.419

.072
.073

.148
.135

1,817.6
1,892.4
1,957.8
2,019.0

856.0
885.8
909.4
929.7

2.123
2.136
2.153
2.172

.252
.245
.241
.238

.218
.223
.221
.219

1.428
1.416
1.412
1.416

.070
.066
.065
.065

.156
.187
.214
.234

8.484
8.620
8.708
8.781

12.114
12.202
12.293
12.433

2,078.3

952.1

2.183

.235

.217

1.423

.066

.241

.099
.095
.108
.125
.144
.165
.166

8.409
8.418

1983- I

.049
.040
.049
.062
.070
.069
.075

5.052
5.429
5.937
6.507
7.024
7.558
8.198
8.969
9.894
10.850
11.700
12.260
11.795
11.947

8.824

12.570

n
m

IV

1984: I r..
1

Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1972 dol-

lars.
2

This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with
the decimal point shifted two places to the left.




3
4

Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies.
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor
(Bureau of Labor Statistics).

NATIONAL INCOME
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

National
income

Compensation of
employees1

Proprietors' income with
inventory valuation and
capital consumption
adjustments

Farm

1972
1973

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1982- I

n

TTT
IV

1983: I

n
m

IV
1984- I r
1

2,419.7
2,448.9
2,458.9
2,474.0
2,528.5
2,612.8
2,686.9
2,772.4
2,883.3

Nonfarm

58.1
61.0
62.2
65.4
75.0
84.8
92.2
100.2
95.6
89.7
87.4
107.6
83.7
88.1
87.8
90.2
98.4
106.2
111.2
114.5
121.4

18.7
32.8
26.5
24.6
19.1
19.1
26.3
31.9
21.8
30.5
21.5
20.9
27.4
16.8
15.8
26.0
22.2
21.0
15.5
25.0
47.9

718.0
801.3
877.5
931.4
1,036.3
1,152.1
1,301.1
1,458.1
1,599.6
1,769.2
1,865.7
1,990.2
1,834.2
1,859.9
1,879.5
1,889.0
1,923.7
1,968.7
2,011.8
2,056.6
2,113.4

963.6
1,086.2
1,160.7
1,239.4
1,379.2
1,550.5
1,760.3
1,966.7
2,116.6
2,373.0
2,450.4
2,650.2

Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption
adjustments

Rental
income of
persons
with
capital
consumption
adjustment

Profits with inventory valuation
adjustment and without capital
consumption adjustment

Total

Profits
before tax

21.0
22.6
23.5
23.0
23.5
24.8
26.6
27.9
31.5
41.4
49.9
54.8
47.4
49.0
50.9
52.3
54.1
54.8
53.9
56.2
57.0

96.6
108.3
94.9
110.5
138.1
167.3
192.4
194.8
175.4
192.3
164.8
229.1
162.0
166.8
168.5
161.9
181.8
218.2
248.4
268.2
281.6

94.0
105.6
96.7
120.6
151.6
178.5
205.1
209.6
191.7
203.3
165.9
198.3
167.7
170.3
168.3
157.2
168.0
192.7
210.8
222.0
231.8

Inventory
valuation
adjustment

100.6
125.6
136.7
132.1
166.3
194.7
229.1
252.7
234.6
227.0
174.2
207.5

Total

Capital
consumption
adjustment

-6.6
-20.0
-40.0
-11.6
-14.7
-16.2
-24.0
-43.1
-42.9
-23.6
-8.4
-9.2
-5.5
-8.5
-9.0
-10.3
-1.7
10.6
-18.3
-6.3
-12.5

173.2
178.8
177.3
167.5
169.7
203.3
229.1
228.2

244.3

2.7
2.7
-1.8
-10.1
-13.5
-11.3
-12.7
-14.8
-16.3
-11.0
-1.1
30.8

-5.6
-3.5
.1
4.7
13.9
25.6
37.6
46.2
49.8

Net
interest

51.2
60.2
76.1
84.5
87.2
102.5
121.7
153.8
192.6
249.9
261.1
247.5
265.0
268.3
256.4
254.7
248.3
243.8
246.1
251.9
262.0

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.)

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1972
1973
1974

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981..
1982
1983....
1982: I

n
'm
IV

1983: I

n
m
IV

1984: F......

Total
durable
goods

Motor
vehicles
and
parts

Furniture and
household
equipment

737.1
812.0
888.1
976.4
1,084.3
1,204.4
1,346.5
1,507.2
1,668.1
1,857.2
1,991.9
2,158.0

111.1
123.3
121.5
132.2
156.8
178.2
200.2
213.4
214.7
236.1
244.5
279.4

52.4
57.1
50.4
55.8
72.6
84.8
95.7
96.6
90.7
101.6
109.9
133.4

41.7
47.1
50.6
53.5
59.1
65.7
72.8
81.8
86.3
93.3
93.5
102.2

16.9
19.2
20.5
22.9
25.2
27.7
31.7
35.1
37.7
41.2
41.1
43.9

300.6
333.4
373.4
407.3
441.7
478.8
528.2
600.0
668.8
733.9
761.0
804,1

1,938.9
1,972.8
2,008.8
2,046.9

239.4
242.9
243.4
252.1

106.4
107.6
109.4
116.1

91.7
93.9
93.5
94.9

41.3
41.4
40.5
41.0

749.7
754.7
766.6
773.0

2,073.0
2,147.0
2,181.1
2,230.9

258.5
277.7
282.8
298.6

118.4
133.9
135.6
145.6

97.3
100.8
102.9
107.7

42.9
43.1
44.3
45.4

777.1
799.6
814.8
825.0

2,286.2

315.1

155.8

111.8

47.5

843.2

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




Retail sales of new
passenger cars
(millions of units)

Nondurable goods

Durable goods

Total
personal
consumption
expenditures

Other

Total
nondurable
goods

Food

154.9
172.1
193.7
213.6
230.6
249.8
275.9
311.6
345.1
375.9
396.9
422.1
388.1
394.7
400.4
404.5
411.7
419.6
426.4
430.6
439.9

Clothing
and
shoes

Gasoline
and oil

55.4
61.4
64.8
69.6
75.3
82.6
92.4
99.1
104.6
115.3
119.0
125.6
118.4
119.0
119.2
119.6
120.0
126.4
125.1
130.7
134.0

25.4
28.6
36.6
40.4
44.0
48.1
51.2
66.6
84.8
94.6
91.5
90.8
94.0
89.6
91.3
91.1
87.3
90.3
93.1
92.7
92.4

Services
Other

64.9
71.2
78.2
83.7
91.9
98.2
108.8
122.8
134.3
148.1
153.5
165.7
149.2
151.5
155.6
157.9
158.1
163.3
170.2
171.1
176.9

Domestics
325.3
355.2
393.2
437.0
485.7
547.4
618.0
693.7
784.5
887.1
986.4
1,074.5
949.7
975.2
998.9
1,021.8
1,037.4
1,069.7
1,083.5
1,107.3
1,127.9

Imports

9.3
9.6
7.4
7.0
6.5
9.0
9.2
8.2
6.6
6.2
5.8
6.8
5.8
5.7
5.6
6.0

1.6
1.8
1.4
1.6
1.5
2.1
2.0
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.4

6.1
6.9
7.0
7.2
8.2

2.2
2.0
2.2
2.5
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.7
2.3

SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income increased $17.8 billion (annual rate) in May, following a rise of $17.2 billion in April. Wages and
salaries rose $8.7 billion in May compared to a rise of $21.5 billion in April.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
3,200

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)

3,200
2,800

2,800

TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME

2,400

2,400

2,000

2,000

1,600

1,600
1,200

1,200
WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS

1,000

1,000

800

800
600

600

"T

OTHER INCOME

400

400

TRANSFER
PAYMENTS

200

200

160

160

mill

120

1976

1977

1978

1979

1981

1980

him
1982

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF CO/AMERCE

120

1984

1983

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Total
personal
income

Period

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979. ...
1980
1981
1982
1983.
1983: May
June
July
Auff

Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1984: Jan r
Feb r
Marr.
Apr r
May*

. .

1,168.6
1,265.0
1,391.2
1,540.4
1,732.7
1,951.2
2,165.3
2,435.0
2,578.6
2,742.1
2,719.3
2,732.6
2,747.6
2,756.4
2,781.6
2,812.5
2,833.5
2,859.6
2,906.8
2,928.0
2,943.7
2,961.0
2,978.8

Wage and
salary
disbursements *

765.7
806.4
889.9
983.2
1,106.3
1,237.6
1,356.7
1,493.2
1,568.1
1,664.6
1,652.2
1,660.9
1,673.5
1,680.5
1,691.8
1,710.6
1,715.3
1,726.0
1,748.7
1,757.1
1,763.4
1,784.9
1,793.5

Proprietors' income 8
Other labor
income 1 2

55.8
64.5
75.9
89.4
102.5
114.9
128.0
143.5
156.6
173.4
170.1
172.2
174.3
176.3
178.4
180.6
182.6
184.9
186.9
189.0
191.1
193.2
195.2

Farm

26.5
24.6
19.1
19.1
26.3
31.9
21.8
30.5
21.5
20.9
21.4
19.4
16.6
14.9
15.0
20.7
23.8
30.4
47.6
49.5
46.5
31.2
30.8

1
The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of
employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of
wage accruals over wage disbursements.
* Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workers' injury
compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items.
3
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.




Nonfarm

Rental
income of
persons 4

Personal
dividend
income

Personal
interest
income

62.2
65.4
75.0
84.8
92.2
100.2
95.6
89.7
87.4
107.6
106.6
109.0
109.9
110.9
113.0
114.2
114.3
115.0
119.9
121.8
122.5
124.2
124.8

23.5
23.0
23.5
24.8
26.6
27.9
31.5
41.4
49.9
54.8
54.8
55.0
55.3
50.8
55.8
56.0
56.2
56.5
56.7
57.0
57.2
57.4
57.7

29.1
29.9
36.5
39.6
45.3
50.8
56.8
62.8
66.4
70.5
69.4
69.5
70.2
70.9
71.6
72.3
72.9
73.4
74.1
75.1
76.2
77.0
77.3

112.4
123.2
132.5
152.8
179.4
218.7
266.0
341.3
366.2
366.3
356.9
359.4
364.4
370.2
375.2
378.3
380.9
384.0
389.9
396.2
402.9
408.4
413.7

Transfer
payments 5

141.2
178.3
194.3
207.9
223.8
250.3
297.6
337.2
374.5
403.6
406.7
406.7
403.5
402.2
401.9
402.0
409.8
412.4
411.3
411.1
413.1
414.9
416.5

4
5
6

Less:
Personal
contributions
for social
insurance

47.9
50.4
55.5
61.1
69.8
81.1
88.7
104.6
112.0
119.5
118.8
119.5
120.1
120.3
121.1
122.2
122.4
122.9
128.3
128.7
129.0
130.2
130.8

Nonfarm
personal
income 6

1,131.8
1,229.1
1,359.3
1,506.5
1,689.7
1,899.3
2,119.5
2,377.0
2,527.6
2,691.5
2,668.5
2,683.8
2,701.4
2,711.8
2,736.7
2,761.8
2,779.7
2,799.2
2,829.1
2,848.2
2,866.8
2,899.0
2,916.8

With capital consumption adjustment.
Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments.
Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income,
and agricultural net interest.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME
Real per capita disposable income rose again in the first quarter of 1984.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
2,800

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
2,800

DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME

PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME

5,000 —
4,000

3,000

3,000

1984

1976
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Period

Personal
income

Less:
Personal

Equals:
Disposable
personal
income

tax and

nontax
payments

Less:
Personal
outlays *

Equals:
Personal
saving

Per capita
disposable personal
income
Current
dollars

1972
dollars

1973
1974
1975...............
1976..
1977
1978
1979
1980.
1981
1982
1983

951.4
1,065.2
1,168.6
1,265.0
1,391.2
1,540.4
1,732.7
1,951.2
2,165.3
2,435.0
2,578.6
2,742.1

141.0
150.7
170.2
168.9
196.8
226.4
258.7
301.0
336.5
387.4
402.1
406.5

810.3
914.5
998.3
1,096.1
1,194.4
1,314.0
1,474.0
1,650.2
1,828.9
2,047.6
2,176.5
2,335.6

Current
dollars

1972
dollars

757.7
835.5
913.2
1,001.8
1,111.9
1,236.0
1,384.6
1,553.5
1,718.7
1,912.4
2,051.1
2,222,0

52.6
79.0
85.1
94.3
82.5
78.0
89.4
96.7
110.2
135.3
125.4
113.6

3.860
4,315
4,667
5,075
5,477
5,965
6,621
7,331
8,032
8,906
9,377
9,969

3,860
4,080
4,009
4,051
4,158
4,280
4,441
4,512
4,487
4,587
4,567
4,672

Percent
change in
real per
capita
disposable
personal
income

Saving as
percent of
disposable
personal
income

Population
(thousands)2

Percent

Dollars

Billions of dollars
1972

Per capita personal
consumption
expenditures

3,511
3,831
4,152
4,521
4,972
5,468
6,048
6,695
7,326
8,078
8,581
9,211

3,511
3,623
3,566
3,609
3,774
3,924
4,057
4,121
4,092
4,162
4,180
4,317

2.9
5.7
-1.7
1.0
2.6
2.9
3.8
1.6
-.6
2.2
-.4
2.3

6.5
8.6
8.5
8.6
6.9
5.9
6.1
5.9
6.0
6.6
5.8
4.9

209,924
211,939
213,898
215,981
218,086
220,289
222,629
225,106
227,694
229,916
232,118
234,297

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
2,528.1
2,563.2
2,591.3
2,632.0

400.2
404.2
399.8
404.1

2,127.9
2,159.0
2,191.5
2,227.8

1,997.0
2,031.9
2,068.4
2,107.0

130.8
127.1
123.0
120.8

9,199
9,315
9,430
9,562

4,562
4,574
4,558
4,576

8,382
8,511
8,644
8,785

4,156
4,180
4,178
4,204

-4.3
1.1
-1.4
1.6

6.1
5.9
5.6
5.4

231,304
231,790
232,387
232,990

n
m

IV

2,657.7
2,713.6
2,761.9
2,835.2

401.8
412.6
400.1
411.4

2,255.9
2,301.0
2,361.7
2,423.9

2,134.2
2,209.5
2,245.9
2,298.3

121.7
91.5
115.8
125.6

9,661
9,834
10,069
10,308

4,599
4,629
4,690
4,769

8,878
9,176
9,299
9,488

4,226
4,319
4,331
4,390

2.0
2.6
5.4
6.9

5.4
4.0
4.9
5.2

233,501
233,984
234,564
235,138

1984: I r

2,926.2

421.3

2,504.9

2,356.5

148.4

10,631

4,875

9,703

4,449

9.2

5.9

235,628

1982- I

n
m
IV

1983: I....

1

Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net).
2
Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages
for the period.




Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).

FARM INCOME
In the first quarter of 1984, according to preliminary estimates, gross tarm income rose $6.4 billion (annual rate)
and net farm income rose $2.1 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
200

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)

200

160

160

120

120

100

100

80

80

60

60

40

40

NET FARM INCOME ,

I
I
I

20

I

10
1976

I I
1977

I

I I
1978

I I I
1979

I

I

I I

I I
1981

1980

20

I

I I
1983

1982

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

10
1984

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Income of farm operators from farming
Net farm income

Gross farm income
Period

Cash marketing receipts
Total1
Total

Livestock and
products

Crops

Value of
inventory
changes 2

Production
expenses

Current
dollars

1967 dollars 3

102.9
108.7
127.2
150.4
150.1
167.1
162.2
156.2

1976

1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1982- I

n
m

IV

1983- I

n

m

IV

1984- P

. . .

95.4
96.2
112.9
131.8
140.5
142.3
144.6
142.6

46.3
47.6
59.2
68.6
67.8
69.2
70.2
70.9

49.0
48.6
53.7
63.2
72.7
73.1
74.4
71.7

-1.5
1.1
.8
4.9
-5.3
7.6
-1.9
-9.6

82.7
88.9
99.5
118.1
128.6
137.0
140.1
135.6

20.1
19.8
27.7
32.3
21.5
30.1
22.1
20.6

11.8
10.9
14.2
14.8
8.7
11.0
7.6
6.9

168.4
158.5
155.9
165.8

147.6
142.0
142.3
146.3

70.7
71.0
70.2
68.9

76.9
71.0
72.1
77.4

2.0
__1.7
-3.5
4.2

141.0
141.5
140.3
137.6

27.4
17.0
15.6
28.2

9.7
5.9
5.3
9.6

155.2
152.3
152.6
164.7

144.5
141.7
145.0
139.3

71.5
70.8
70.1
71.2

73.0
70.9
74.9
68.1

9.8
.—11.1
12.3
-5.2

136.0
134.7
134.9
136.8

19.2
17.6
17.7
27.9

6.5
5.9
5.9
9.2

171.1

132.0

73.0

59.0

5.9

141.2

30.0

9.8

1
Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash
income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms.
2
Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average
prices during the year.




3

Income in current dollars divided hy the consumer price index (Department of Labor).

Source: Department of Agriculture, except as noted.

CORPORATE PROFITS
In the first quarter, according to revised estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $16.1 billion (annual rate) and
after-tax profits rose $8.7 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
3201

1320

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

280

280

PROFITS BEFORE TAX

240

240

200

200

160

160

120

120

TAX LIABILITY

^<?»4v\...

80

80

—

40

40

UNDISTRIBUTED PROFITS

1 1 1

1 1 1

1976

1977

\ \

I I I

1978

I

1979

1980

I

I

1981

I

I

I

I

I

I I

1982

1983

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1984

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment 1

Profits alter tax

Domestic industries
Nonfinancial

Period
Total

Total

1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

Profits
before tax

2

94.0
105.6
96.7
120.6
151.6
178.5
205.1

Financial

Total3

Manufacturing

Tax
liability

100.6
125.6
136.7
132.1
166.3
194.7
229.1

41.6
49.0
51.6
50.6
63.8
72.7
83.2
87.6
84.8
82.8
59.2
76.9
60.3
61.4
60.8
54.0

Wholesale and
retail
trade

165.9
198.3
167.7
170.3
168.3
157.2

85.3
92.0
80.4
107.6
137.4
163.4
185.4
179.0
161.9
179.7
144.1
176.9
147.0
148.5
147.6
133.1

15.3
15.9
15.0
11.8
17.1
23.1
31.0
30.3
26.9
20.3
20.9
31.5
15.5
20.4
22.2
25.5

70.0
76.0
65.4
95.8
120.3
140.3
154.4
148.6
134.9
159.4
123.2
145.4
131.5
128.1
125.4
107.6

40.7
45.5
39.0
52.6
69.2
78.3
86.9
85.6
72.9
86.7
59.0
72.0
60.9
61.4
65.5
48.3

13.4
13.9
12.5
21.3
22.4
26.6
26.9
27.1
23.6
32.8
27.6
34.7
30.2
27.4
25.2
27.5

TTT
IV

168.0
192.7
210.8

147.8
172.2
187.4

222.0

200.3

29.8
33.8
31.9
30.6

118.0
138.4
155.5
169.6

53.7
68.1
78.2
88.1

27.8
33.9
36.7
40.2

228.2

61.5
76.0
84.9
85.3

1984: I r

231.8

209.1

31.1

178.6

92.3

41.2

244.3

92.7

1982:

209.6

191.7
203.3

I

n
in
IV

1983: I

n

1
See
2

p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.




3

252.7
234.6
227.0

174.2
207.5

173.2
178.8
177.3
167.5
169.7
203.3

229.1

Inventory
valuation
adjustment

Dividends

Undistributed
profits

58.9
76.6
85.1
81.5
102.5
122.0
145.9
165.1
149.8
144.1
115.1
130.6
112.9
117.4
116.5
113.5

24.4
27.0
29.9
30.8
37.4
40.8
47.0
52.7
58.6
64.7
68.7
73.3
67.7
67.8
68.8
70.4

34.5
49.6
55.2
50.7
65.1
81.2
98.9
112.4
91.2
79.5
46.4
57.3
45.2
49.5
47.7
43.1

108.2
127.2
144.1
142.9

71.4
72.0
73.7
75.9

36.7
55.2
70.4
67.0

-1.7
-10.6
-18.3
-6.3

151.6

78.2

73.4

-12.5

Total

Includes industries not shown separately.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

66
-20.0
400
-11.6
147
-16.2
240
-43.1
429
-23.6
-8.4
-9.2
-5.5
-8.5
-9.0
-10.3

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
According to revised estimates for the first quarter, business fixed investment rose $11.7 billion (annual rate) and
residential investment outlays rose $9.0 billion. There was a $71.0 billion increase in inventories following an
increase of $19.6 billion in the fourth quarter.
BULK3NS OF DOLLARS
600

BILLIONS OF DOL LARS
600

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

500

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC
INVESTMENT

_

^-—*-X

400

,/

"Vls/r

;

NONRESIDENT AL
IXED INVESTMI •NT

500

l < >k^

A

—

/

400

**'~~~^

—

300

300

,.'*'"'

'

*
—

200

200

RE S1DENTJAL
FIXED INVESTMENT

IT

—

100

100

.--""
^

*******

0»~~~*»*>mmmmt

0

-100

X^
1 1 1

1

1

1

1977

1976

1

1

1

1978

\

\

\

1 1 1

1979

CHANGE 1 M BUSINESS
INVEhITORIES
/

-^

\s'"

1981

1980

—

0

\

V
I i I 1 1 1

\ \ \

/

1

1

1

-100

1984

1983

1982

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENTr OF COMMERCE

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Gross
private
domestic
investment

Period

1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

Nonresidential fixed investment
Total

Structures

Producers'
durable
equipment

Residential fixed investment
Total

Nonfarm
structures

Farm
structures

Producers'
durable
equipment

Change in business
inventories
Total

Nonfarm

195.0
229.8
228.7
206.1
257.9
324.1
386.6
423.0
401.9
474.9
414.5
471.9

121.0
143.3
156.6
157.7
174.1
205.2
248.9
290.2
308.8
352.2
348.3
348.4

44.1
51.0
55.9
55.4
58.8
64.4
78.7
98.3
110.9
133.4
141.9
131.1

76.9
92.3
100.7
102.3
115.3
140.8
170.2
191.9
197.9
218.8
206.4
217.2

63.8
68.0
57.9
55.3
72.0
95.8
111.2
118.6
102.9
104.3
90.8
130.0

61.5
65.6
54.8
52.4
68.8
92.0
107.0
114.0
98.1
99.8
86.0
124.9

0.7
.7
1.3
1.0
1.1
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.3
1.5
1.5

1.5
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.2
3.6

10.2
18.5
14.1
-6.9
11.8
23.0
26.5
14.3
-9.8
18.5
-24.5
64

9.6
15.2
16.0
-10.5
13.9
21.9
25.4
8.6
45
10.9
23 1
-2.8

422.9
432.5
425.3
377.4

361.3
352.7
342.3
337.0

144.7
144.2
140.0
138.6

216.5
208.5
202.2
198.4

87.3
91.0
87.9
96.8

83.2
86.1
83.4
91.2

.9
1.6
1.3
2.3

3.2
3.3
3.3
3.3

257

-11.2
-4.9
-56.4

-27.6
-8.8
-2.3
-53.7

IV

404.1
450.1
501.1
532.5

332.1
336.3
351.0
374.0

132.9
127.4
130.9
133.3

199.3
208.8
220.2
240.7

111.3
128.4
141.5
138.8

106.7
123.3
136.3
133.5

1.3
1.5
1.6
1.6

3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7

-39.4
-14.5
8.5
19.6

390
-10.3
18.4
19.7

1984- I T

604.6

385.7

140.1

245.6

147.8

142.6

1.4

3.8

71.0

50.1

.

1982- I

n
m .
IV

1983: I

n
in

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
According to the Commerce Department April-May survey, business spending for new plant and equipment for the
year 1984 is expected to be 14.8 percent above the 1983 level; spending for 1983 was 4.8 percent below the
1982 level.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
500

500

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

400

400
ALL INDUSTRIES

300

200

300

200

NONMANUFACTURING
(Surveyed Quarterly)

MANUFACTURING.

100

100

80

80

60

60

40

40

I

1976

I

I

I

1978

1977

1979

1

i
1982

1981

1980

1984

1983

_!/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Addenda

Industries surveyed quarterly
Nonmanufaeturing

Manufacturing
Period

All
industries

1983:

Total l

Mining

Transportation

Public
utilities

Commercial
and
other *

Manufacturing

Total

Surveyed
quarter-

Surveyed
annual3

90.96
105.46
123.82
141.54
148.63
162.58
163.03
157.69
180.22

20.54
23.40
27.70
30.24
31.18
32.12
33.72
33.28

iy

28.47
34.04
40.43
51.07
58.91
61.84
56.44
51.78
61.40

31.47
35.18
39.29
47.61
56.90
64.95
63.23
59.75
67.36

90.96
105.46
123.82
141.54
148.63
162.58
163.03
157.69
180.22

7.44
9.24
10.21
11.38
13.51
16.86
15.45
11.83
13.97

8.89
9.40
10.68
12.35
12.09
12.05
11.95
11.20
11.97

22.37
26.79
29.95
33.96
35.44
38.40
41.95
42.00
44.98

52.27
60.03
72.99
83.85
87.59
95.27
93.68
92.67
109.30

m...
IV...

279.61
269.80

118.26
110.23

56.61
50.51

61.65
59.72

161.36
159.58

14.57
13.41

11.29
12.33

43.02
43.00

92.48
90.83

11826
110.23

I

261.71
261.16
270.05
283.96

109.86
108.79
111.12
116.36

50.74
48.48
53.06
54.85

59.12
60.31
58.06
61.50

151.85
152.38
158.93
167.60

12.03
10.91
11.93
12.43

11.04
10.88
11.00
11.86

41.61
41.48
42.22
42.69

87.17
89.10
93.79
100.62

109.86
108.79
111.12
116.36

151.85
152.38
158.93
16760

293.15
303.79
314.52
324.45

122.78
126.00
130.41
135.86

58.94
58.28
63.39
65.00

63.84
67.72
67.02
70.86

170.37
177.79
184.11
188.59

13.95
13.32
14.14
14.47

11.46
12.13
12.32
11.96

43.62
44.43
45.13
46.74

101.35
107.92
112.52
115.42

122.78
126.00
130.41
135.86

ly

161.36
159.58

17037
177.79
184.11
188.59

,
4

n
in...
IV...

1984:

Nondurable
goods

59.95
69.22
79.72
98.68
115.81
126.79
119.68
111.53
128.76

1984

1982:

Durable
goods

Nonmanufaeturing

150.91
174.68
203.54
240.22
264.44
289.37
282.71
269.22
308.98

1976
1977
1978
1979

1980
1981
1982
1983

Total

Total
nonfarm
business 2

I

n 44
..
m 4.
IV .

1
Excludes forestry, fisheries, and afrieultural services; medical services; professional services;
social services and membership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May
1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nonmanufacturing surveyed annually") for data for these industries.
2
"All industries" plus the part of nonmanufacturing that is surveyed annually.
3
Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services;

10



171.45
198.08
231.24
270.46
295.63
321.49
316.43
302.50

59.95
69.22
79.72
98.68
115.81
126.79
119.68
111.53
12876

111.50
128.87
151.52
171.77
179.81
194.70
196.75
190.97

social services and membership organizations; and real estate.
4
Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late April and May 1984, corrected foi
biases.
NOTE.—For details about the reduced industry coverage of the plant and equipment survey, see
Survey of Current Business, January 1984.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE
Seasonally adjusted civilian employment rose 886,000 in May and unemployment fell 329,000.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

1984
*16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISiRS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted]

Period

Noninstitutional
population
including
resident
Armed
Forces

Civilian employment
Resident
Forces

NSA

Y

•,

e

jjaoor torce
including
Armed
Forces

Employment
including
resident
Armed
Forces

Nonagricultural
Civilian
labor force

1980
1981....
1982
1983
1983: May.....
June
July
Aug
Sept
Get
Nov
Dec
1984: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May

163,541
166,460
169,349
171,775
173,939
175,891
175,622
175,793
175,970
176,122
176,297
176,474
176,636
176,809
177,219
177,363
177,510
177,662
177,813

1,631
1,597
1,604
1,645
1,668
1,676
1,669
1,668
1,664
1,682
1,695
1,695
1,685
1,688
1,686
1,684
1,686
1,693
1,690

103,882

106,559
108,544
110,315
111,872
113,226
112,619
113,573
113,489
113,799
113,924
113,561
113,720
113,824
113,901
114,377
114,598
114,938
115,493

97,679
100,421

102,251
104,962

100,907
102,042
101,194
102,510
101,431
102,411
102,889
103,166
103,571
103,665
104,291
104,629
104,876
105,576
105,826
106,095
106,978

106,940
108,670
110,204
111,550
110,950
111,905
111,825
112,117
112,229
111,866
112,035
112,136
112,215
112,693
112,912
113,245
113,803

1
Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc.
2
Labor force as percent of noninstitutional population (both including resident Armed Forces).




Labor force
participation
rate (percent)

15
Total

Agricultural

Total

NSA
1978
1979

Unemployment

96,048

3,387

98,824
99,303
100,397
99,526
100,834
99,762
100,743
101,225
101,484
101,876
101,970
102,606
102,941
103,190
103,892
104,140
104,402
105,288

3,347
3,364
3,368
3,401
3,383
3,374
3,479
3,499
3,449
3,308
3,240
3,257
3,356
3,271
3,395
3,281
3,393
3,389

92,661
95,477
95,938
97,030
96,125
97,450
96,388
97,264
97,726
98,035
98,568
98,730
99,349
99,585
99,918
100,496
100,859
101,009
101,899

Part-time
for
economic
reasons l
3,298
3,373

4,064
4,499
5,852
5,997
5,965
5,886
5,700
5,866
6,027
5,724
5,848
5,712
5,943
5,808
5,463
5,593
5,353

Total

6,202
6,137

weeks
and
over

1,414
1,241
1,871
2,285

7,637
8,273
10,678 3,485
10,717 4,210
11,188 4,510
11,162 4,486
10,600 4,398
10,633 4,078
10,353 3,889
9,896 3,655
9,429 / 3,527
9,195 3,369
9,026 3,201
8,801 2,984
8,772 2,873
8,843 2,855
8,514 2,851

Total 2

Civila

63.5
64.0
64.1
64.2
64.3
64.4
64.1
64.6
64.5
64.6
64.6
64.3
64.4
64.4
64.3
64.5
64.6
64.7
65.0

63.7
63.8
63.9
64.0
64.0
63.8
64.3
64.2
64.3
64.3
64.0
64.0
64.0
63.9
64.1
64.2
64.4
64.6

ian

63.2

3
Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population.
NOTB.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

11

SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
The seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate, which includes resident Armed Forces in the labor force, fell
0.3 percentage point in May to 7.4 percent. The unemployment rate for all civilian workers also fell 0.3
percentage point, to 7.5 percent.
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

>5

25

>0

I

20

BLACK
AND OTHER ,**

TEENAGERS

\
5

./""'

All CIVILIAN W DRKERS

VH
<<x"

0

•*
5

15

%

f**'

*./

WHITE

-^

^

^

-^-~>' WOMEN 20 YEARS
AND OVER

lllllllllll

0 llllllMIII lllllllllll lllllllllll 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II lllllllllll

1980

1981

1984

1983

1982

MEN 20 YEARS
AND OVER

10

1980

lllllllllll

Illlllillll

1982

1981

1984

1983

•UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVIUAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group)

Period

Mar...
May...
1

Total

6.7
8.6
8.4

23.0
23.6
22.7
22.8
21.8
21.6
20.2
20.1

8.8
8.6
8.2
8.2
8.0
7.7
7.3
7.1

18.5
18.6
17.9
17.9
17.3
16.7
16.1
16.3

19.4
19.3
19.9
19.4
19.0

6.9
6.7
6.7
6.7
6.4

15.6
14.9
15.1
15.1
14.2

8.5
8.6
7.9
8.0
7.8
7.5
7.2
7.1

8.0
7.8
7.8
7.8
7.5

7.3
7.0
6.8
6.9
6.5

7.1
6.9
6.9
7.0
6.8

7.9
7.7
7.7
7.7
7.4

16.4

5.2
5.1
6.3

Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces.
2
Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours.

12



Black

5.6
5.5
6.9

9.5
9.1
8.8
8.7
8.6
8.2
7.8
7.4

Jan...

White

Experienced
wage and
salary
workers

12.8
12.3
14.3
15.6
18.9
19.5

10.1
10.0
9.5
9.5
9.2
8.8
8.4
8.2

9.9
9.8
9.3
9.3
9.1
8.7
8.3
8.1

4.3
4.2
5.9
6J

Black and other

11.9
11.3
13.1
14.2
17.3
17.8

8.8
8.9

May...
JuneJuly..
Aug...
Sept ..
Oct....
Nov...
Dec...

Apr ...

Both
sexes
16-19
years

16.1
17.8
19.6
23.2
22.4

5.8
7.1
7.6
9.7
9.6

Feb ...

Women
20 years
and
over

6.0
5.7
6.4
6.8
8.3
8.1

6.1

5.8
7.0
7.5
9.5
9.5

1980
1981
1982
1983

1984:

ers

Men
20 years
and over

By selected groups

By race

By sex and age

All
civilian
work-

6.0

1978
1979

1983:

Unemployment
rate, all
workers 1

Married
men,
spouse
present

Women

who
maintain
families

Fulltune
workers

Part,time
workers

Labor
force
tune lost
(percent) 2

8.5
8.3
9.2
10.4
11.7
12.2

5.6

9.0

7.3
9.3
9.2

2.8
2.8
4.2
4.3
6.5
6.5

5.3
6.9
7.3
9.6
9.5

8.8
8.8
9.4
10.5
10.4

6.5
6.3
7.9
8.5
11.0
10.9

20.3
20.3
19.6
19.8
18.9
18.3
17.7
17.8

9.8
9.4
9.1
9.1
8.8
8.5
8.1
7.9

7.0
6.7
6.2
6.3
6.1
5.7
5.5
5.2

12.7
12.5
11.8
11.8
12.0
11.4
10.5
10.9

10.0
9.7
9.4
9.3
9.1
8.7
8.2
8.0

10.9
11.8
10.2
10.2
10.1
10.0
9.8
9.8

11.5
11.1
10.7
10.7
10.5
10.0
9.7
9.4

16.7
16.2
16.6
16.8
15.8

7.6
7.4
7.2
7.3
6.9

5.0
4.9
4.7
4.7
4.5

10.7
11.0
11.0
10.5
9.8

7.8
7.5
7.5
7.6
7.2

9.2
9.3
9.2
9.1
9.3

9.2
8.9
8.8
8.9
8.5

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE PROGRAMS
In May, the percentage of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 27 weeks
and over fell, and the percentages out of work for 5-14 weeks and for 15-26 weeks rose. The mean duration of
unemployment fell while the median rose.
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*

70

70

30 —

20

10 -r,

1984
•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Keason for unemployment:
percent distribution *

Duration of unemployment
Unemployment
(thousands)

Period

Percent distribution 1

State
programs

Number of
weeks

Less
than
5
weeks

5-14
weeks

15-26
weeks

27
weeks
and
over

Average
(mean)

Median

6,137
7,637
8,273
10,678
10,717

48.1
43.1
41.7
36.4
33.3

31.7
32.3
30.7
31.0
27.4

11.5
13.8
13.6
16.0
15.4

8.7
10.7
14.0
16.6
23.9

10.8
11.9
13.7
15.6
20.0

1983- May
June
July
a*
Aug
Scot
Oct
Nov
Dec

11,188
11,162
10,600
10,633
10,353
9,896
9,429
9,195

32.2
32.8
32.8
34.1
35.9
35.5
35.1
36.5

27.2
26.7
26.4
27.7
26.7
27.6
27.6
27.1

16.0
14.4
16.7
15.0
13.3
13.9
14.1
13.9

24.7
26.1
24.2
23.3
24.1
23.1
23.1
22.5

1984- Jan
Feb

9,026
8,801
8,772
8,843
8,514

36.0
38.1
38.5
39.1
38.0

28.4
28.1
28.9
28.4
28.6

13.0
13.3
12.7
12.6
13.9

22.6
20.5
20.0
19.8
19.5

Insured
unemployment,
all
regular
programs
(unadjusted) 2

Special
unemployment
benefit
claims
(unadjusted) 3

Job
losers

Job
leavers

Eeentrants

New
entrants

Insured
unemployment

5.4
6.5
6.9
8.7
10.1

42.9
51.7
51.6
58.7
58.4

14.3
11.7
11.2
7.9
7.7

29.4
25.2
25.4
22.3
22,5

13.3
11.4
11.9
11.1
11.8

2,434
3,350
3,047
4,061
3,396

388
488
460
583
438

2,592
3,837
3,410
4,594
3,775

20.2
21.4
21.3
19.9
20.2
20.1
20.2
19.6

11.9
10.8
10.1
9.4
9.4
9.5
9.4
9.0

60.2
58.4
58.6
57.7
57.1
56.5
55.0
54.1

7.2
7.2
7.1
7.5
8.3
8.7
9.1
9.2

21.4
21.8
22.7
23.3
22.7
23.4
23.7
24.2

11.1
12.6
11.6
11.4
11.9
11.4
12.1
12.4

3,615
3,389
3,190
3,025
2,893
2,797
2,734
2,636

460
424
408
410
386
389
388
389

3,947
3,481
3,275
2,917
2,580
2,478
2,620
2,915

1,445
1,086
849
737
655
522
901
731

20.5
18.8
18.8
18.5
18.4

9.2
8.3
8.3
8.1
8.7

53.6
54.1
52.5
51.3
50.9

9.0
8.8
8.6
8.8
9.5

24.4
24.6
25.1
26.1
25.6

13.1
12.5
13.8
13.8
14.0

2,615
2,528
2,498
2,449
2,369

368
349
354
361
350

3,374
3,174
2,958
2,610

584
489
444
401
374

Initial
claims

Weekly average, thousands

1979
1980.
1981
1982
1983

,

Mar
Apr

May
1

Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding.
Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Eico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (OCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (ER) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program.
2




3
Federal supplemental compensation program.
Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration).

13

NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
Total nonagricultura! employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 232,000 in May.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

22
90

ALL NONAGRICULTURAL
ESTABLISHMENTS
80

70

\

SERVICE-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES

60

50

40

.GOODS-PRODUCING.
INDUSTRIES

30

1

v

20
1980

1983

1982

1981

1980

1984

1981

1982

1983

1984

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 seasonally adjusted]
m , 1
lotal
nonagricultural
employment

Period

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982 r
1983 r

86,697
89,823
.. . 90,406
91,156
89,566
90,138

Service-producing industries

Goods-producing industries
Manufacturing
Total

2

nnn
Con-

struction

Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable
goods

Total

Transportation
and
public
utilities

Wholesale
trade

T?*>tnil
jLveian

trade

Finance,
insurance,
and real
estate

Services

Government
Total

Federal

25,585
26,461
25,658
25,497
23,813
23,394

4,229
4,463
4,346
4,188
3,905
3,940

20,505
21,040
20,285
20,170
18,781
18,497

12,274
12,760
12,187
12,109
11,039
10,774

8,231
8,280
8,098
8,061
7,741
7,724

61,113
63,363
64,748
65,659
65,753
66,744

4,923
5,136
5,146
5,165
5,082
4,958

4,969
5,204
5,275
5,358
5,278
5,259

14,573
14,989
15,035
15,189
15,179
15,545

4,724
4,975
5,160
5,298
5,341
5,467

16,252
17,112
17,890
18,619
19,036
19,665

15,672
15,947
16,241
16,031
15,837
15,851

2,753
2,773
2,866
2,772
2,739
2,752

1983: May r ..
June r.
July r..
Aug r ..
Sept r..
Oct r...
Nov r..
Dec r..

89,578
89,927
90,274
89,918
91,018
91,345
91,688
92,026

23,087
23,241
23,414
23,532
23,669
23,895
24,058
24,198

3,849
3,911
3,947
3,985
4,019
4,044
4,073
4,086

18,298
18,391
18,521
18,597
18,698
18,886
19,018
19,143

10,623
10,686
10,781
10,846
10,923
11,071
11,170
11,266

7,675
7,705
7,740
7,751
7,775
7,815
7,848
7,877

66,491
66,686
66,860
66,386
67,349
67,450
67,630
67,828

5,001
5,005
5,001
4,369
5,046
5,053
5,043
5,055

5,220
5,241
5,256
5,277
5,301
5,322
5,344
5,371

15,433
15,514
15,580
15,626
15,671
15,737
15,805
15,857

5,460
5,464
5,478
5,498
5,503
5,512
5,530
5,546

19,529
19,626
19,723
19,808
19,893
19,962
20,034
20,130

15,848
15,836
15,822
15,808
15,935
15,864
15,874
15,869

2,753
2,744
2,744
2,747
2,774
2,760
2,759
2,762

1984: Janr...
Feb r...
Mar r ..
Apr r...
May p..

92,391
92,846
93,058
93,456
93,688

24,383
24,577
24,595
24,763
24,856

4,154
4,226
4,151
4,247
4,306

19,254
19,373
19,466
19,531
19,557

11,343
11,440
11,513
11,553
11,590

7,911
7,933
7,953
7,978
7,967

68,008
68,269
68,463
68,693
68,832

5,095
5,105
5,112
5,131
5,141

5,406
5,438
5,457
5,474
5,496

15,914
15,980
16,030
16,094
16,117

5,573
5,593
5,613
5,640
5,650

20,162
20,278
20,378
20,449
20,538

15,858
15,875
15,873
15,905
15,890

2,760
2,763
2,770
2,773
2,767

1
Includes all Ml- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural 'establishments who
worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month.
Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces.
Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the
civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic
servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample

14



of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
* Includes mining, not shown separately.
NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning January 1979, and unadjusted beginning
April 1982.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Average weekly
hours
Period

1975
1976

1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982r
1983 r
1983: May r
June r.
July1*
Augr.
Sept1"
Oetr.
Nov r
Dec r.
1984: Janr
Feb r
Mar r
Apr r
May"

Average gross hourly
earnings

Manufacturing

Total
private
nonagrieultural *

Total

Overtime

39.5
40.1
40.3
40.4
40.2
39.7
39.8
38.9
40.1
39.9
40.1
40.2
40.3
40.7
40.6
40.6
40.6
40.9
40.9
40.7
41.2
40.7

36.1
36.1
36.0
35.8
35.7
35.3
35.2
34.8
35.0
34.9
35.0
35.0
35.0
35.2
35.2
35.2
35.2
35.4
35.3
35.3
35.5
35.3

Total
private
nonagricultural 1

2.6
3.1
3.5
3.6
3.3
2.8
2.8
2.3
3.0
2.7
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.4

Manufacturing

$4.53
4.86
5.25
5.69
6.16
6.66
7.25
7.68
8.02

$4.83
5.22
5.68
6.17
6.70
7.27
7.99
8.49
8.83

7.98
8.01
8.04
8.00
8.09
8.13
8.14
8.17
8.21
8.23
8.25
8.31
8.28

8.78
8.80
8.83
8.84
8.88
8.93
8.97
8.99
9.03
9.06
9.09
9.11
9.13

Adjusted hourly earnings index— total private
nonagricultural 2

Percent change 4from a year
earlier 5

Index,
1977 — 100

Current
dollars

1977
dollars 3

Current
dollars

86.7
92.9
100.0
108.2
116.8
127.3
138.9
148.5
155.3
154.7
155.1
155.6
155.4
156.2
157.1
157.2
157.8
158.4
158.5
159.1
159.9
159.6

8.4
7.2
7.6
8.2
7.9
9.0
9.1
6.9
4.6
4.9
4.7
4.4
3.7
4.0
4.1
3.9
3.7
3.6
3.2
3.5
3.7
3.2

97.6
99.0
100.0
100.5
97.4
93.5
92.6
93.4
94.8
94.8
94.9
94.9
94.4
94.5
94.7
94.6
94.9
94.8
94.8
95.1
95.4
94.9

1977 dollars

-0.7
1.4
1.0
.5
-3.1
-4.0
-1.0
.9
1.5
1.4
2.2
2.2
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.0
.4

o

-.6
.0
.6
.1

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Percent change from
a year earlier,
total private nonagricultural 5

Average gross weekly earnings
Period

Current dollars
1975

1976
1977. . . .
1978
1979 .
1980
1981
1982 r.
1983 r
1983: May r
June r.
July1"
Aug r
Sept1"
Octr.
Nov r .
Dee r
1984- Jan r
Peb r
Mar r
Apr1"
May p
1
2

Manufacturing

Total private
nonagricultural 1




Retail trade
Current dollars

1977 dollars 3

1977 dollars

Current dollars

$163.53
175.45
189.00
203.70
219.91
235.10
255.20
267.26
280.70

$184.16
186.85
189.00
189.31
183.41
172.74
170.13
168.09
171.37

$190.79
209.32
228.90
249.27
269.34
288.62
318.00
330.26
354.08

$266.08
283.73
295.65
318.69
342.99
367.78
399.26
426.82
443.42

$108.86
114.60
121.66
130.20
138.62
147.38
158.03
163.85
171.05

278.50
280.35
281.40
280.00
284.77
286.18
286.53
287.58

170.65
171.57
171.69
170.01
172.27
172.61
172.40
172.93

350.32
352.88
354.97
356.25
361.42
362.56
364.18
364.99

441.12
442.68
440.38
443.50
448.13
440.59
441.41
441.32

170.16
171.63
171.35
171.95
172.54
174.00
174.60
176.65

290.63
290.52
291.23
295.01
292.28

173.93
173.65
174.08
176.02
173.77

369.33
370.55
369.96
375.33
371.59

451.27
456.49
442.89
454.36
450.00

175.78
175.20
176.69
176.99
176.97

Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.
Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing.
Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index on a 1977 = 100 base.
Eevised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978.
4
Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places.
3

Construction

5.7
7.3
7.7
7.8
8.0
6.9
8.5
4.7
5.0
4.8
4.9
4.6
3.5
6.0
6.4
5.6
5.7
5.5
6.3
5.4
6.2
4.9

-3.1
1.5
1.2
.2
-3.1
-5.8
-1.5
-1.2
2.0
1.3
2.4
2.4
1.1
3.2
3.7
2.6
2.4
1.8
2.5
1.8
3.0
1.8

5
Based on unadjusted data.
Note.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning January 1979, and unadjusted beginning April
1982.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

15

PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR
Output per hour of
all persons

Period
Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Output l

Business
sector

Hours of 2all
persons

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Compensation per
hour 3

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Real compensation
per hour 4
Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Unit labor
cost

Implicit price
deflator 5

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

1977 = 100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted

86.2
89.2
92.4
94.7
92.5

86.8
89.7
93.0
95.3
92.9

78.4
80.7
86.1
91.7
89.9

78.0
80.3
85.8
91.7
89.8

91.0
90.5
93.2
96.8
97.3

89.8
89.5
92.3
96.2
96.7

58.2
62.0
66.1
71.3
78.0

58.7
62.5
66.7
71.7
78.5

90.8
92.8
95.7
97.3
95.9

91.5
93.5
96.6
97.8
96.4

67.5
69.5
71.5
75.3
84.4

67.6
69.7
71.7
75.3
84.5

66.0
69.0
71.3
75.3
82.4

66.3
69.3
71.3
74.0
81.6

94.5
97.6
100.0
100.6
99.4

94.7
97.8
100.0
100.6
99.1

88.2
93.8
100.0
105.5
107.8

87.8
93.7
100.0
105.7
108.0

93.3
96.0
100.0
104.9
108.5

92.7
95.8
100.0
105.0
109.0

85.5
92.9
100.0
108.6
118.7

86.0
93.0
100.0
108.6
118.4

96.3
98.9
100.0
100.9
99.1

96.8
99.0
100.0
100.9
98.9

90.5
95.1
100.0
108.0
119.5

90.8
95.1
100.0
108.0
119.5

90.4
94.7
100.0
107.5
117.2

90.0
94.6
100.0
107.1
116.5

98.9
101.3
101.2
103.9

98.4
100.3
100.2
103.4

106.5
109.8
106.7
111.1

106.5
109.3
106.3
111.1

107.6
108.4
105.4
107.0

108.2
109.0
106.0
107.4

131.2
143.9
155.1
163.0

130.7
143.5
154.7
163.4

96.5
95.9
97.4
99.2

96.1
95.6
97.1
99.4

132.7
142.1
153.3
156.9

132.8
143.0
154.4
157.9

128.1
140.1
147.7
153.2

128.1
140.4
148.6
154.2

101.1
100.7
101.1
101.9

100.0
99.9
100.5
100.7

107.2
106.9
106.6
106.0

106.5
106.7
106.5
105.4

106.0
106.2
105.4
104.0

106.5
106.8
106.0
104.6

151.6
154.0
156.5
158.6

151.3
153.5
156.1
158.3

97.1
97.3
97.2
98.1

96.9
97.0
97.0
97.9

149.9
152.9
154.7
155.6

151.3
153.6
155.4
157.1

145.5
147.5
148.5
149.4

146.4
148.3
149.1
150.5

n
ra
IV

102.4
103.9
104.2
105.3

101.6
103.4
104.0
104.7

107.1
110.4
112.4
114.5

106.7
110.2
112.5
114.8

104.6
106.2
107.9
108.8

105.0
106.6
108.2
109.6

160.6
162.0
163.5
166.2

160.8
162.6
164.1
165.9

99.3
99.1
99.0
99.5

99.4
99.4
99.3
99.3

156.9
156.0
156.9
157.9

158.3
157.2
157.8
158.4

151.5
152.5
153.8
155.2

152.4
153.4
154.7
156.1

I

106.3

105.6

117.8

117.8

110.7

111.6

168.6

168.3

99.8

99.6

158.6

159.4

156.3

156.9

1970
1971.....
1972
1973
1974

0.8
3.6
3.5
2.6
-2.4

0.3
3.3
3.7
2.4
-2.5

-0.8
3.0
6.6
6.6
-2.0

-1.0
2.9
6.9
6.8
-2.0

16
-.5
3.0
3.9
.4

13
-.4
3.1
4.3
.5

7.3
6.6
6.5
8.0
9.4

7.0
6.6
6.7
7.6
9.4

1.3
2.2
3.1
1.6
-1.4

1.0
2.2
3.3
1.3
-1.4

6.4
2.9
2.9
5.3
12.1

6.6
3.1
2.8
5.0
12.2

4.5
4.4
3.4
5.5
9.5

4.8
4.5
3.0
3.8
10.2

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

2.2
3.3
2.4
.6
-1.2

2.0
3.2
2.2
.6
-1.5

-2.0
6.4
6.6
5.5
2.3

-2.2
6.7
6.7
5.7
2.2

-4.1
3.0
4.1
4.9
3.5

-4.1
3.4
4.4
5.0
3.7

9.6
8.6
7.7
8.6
9.4

9.6
8.1
7.5
8.6
9.0

.5
2.6
1.2
.9
-1.7

.4
2.2
1.0
.9
-2.0

7.3
5.1
5.1
8.0
10.7

7.5
4.8
5.2
8.0
10.7

9.8
4.7
5.6
7.5
9.0

10.3
5.1
5.7
7.1
8.8

1980
1981
1982
1983

-.5
2.4
i
2.1

-.7
1.9
-.1
3.2

-1.3
3.1
-2.8
4.2

-1.4
2.7
-2.8
4.5

-.8
.7
-2.7
1.4

-.7
.7
-2.7
1.3

10.5
9.7
7.7
5.1

10.4
9.8
7.8
5.6

-2.6
-.6
1.5
1.9

-2.8
-.6
1.6
2.3

11.1
7.1
7.9
2.4

11.1
7.7
7.9
2.3

9.2
9.4
5.4
3.7

10.0
9.6
5.8
3.8

-.3
-1.6
1.6
3.2

.1
-.3
2.3
1.2

-6.3
-1.0
-1.1
-2.3

-6.2
.8
-.6
-4.1

-6.0
.6
-2.7
-5.3

-6.3
1.1
-2.8
-5.2

9.4
6.4
6.7
5.6

10.0
5.9
7.1
5.6

5.5
.9
-.5
4.0

6.0
.4
j
4.0

9.8
8.1
5.0
2.3

9.9
6.2
4.7
4.4

3.4
5.5
2.7
2.6

3.7
5.4
2.2
3.7

1.9
5.9
1.2
4.2

3.5
7.1
2.3
2.7

4.2
12.7
7.8
7.6

4.9
13.7
8.9
8.1

2.3
6.5
6.5
3.3

1.3
6.2
6.4
5.2

5.2
3.5
3.6
6.9

6.6
4.4
3.8
4.3

4.9
-.8
-.6
2.3

6.3
.0
-.3
j

3.3
-2.2
2.3
2.5

3.0
-2.6
1.5
1.6

5.5
2.8
3.3
3.7

5.3
2.7
3.3
3.7

4.1

3.5

11.8

11.1

7.3

7.3

5.9

6.0

.9

1.0

1.7

2.4

3.0

2.1

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976...
1977
1978
1979

..

1980
1981
1982
1983
1982: I

n
m
IV

1983: I

1984:

Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates

1982: I

n

ffl
IV

1983: I

n
m

IV

1984- I
1
Output
2

refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars.
Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family
workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data.
3
Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private
benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed.
* Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers.

16



5

Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.

NOTE.—Data relate to ah* persons engaged in the sector.
Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may
differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Industrial production rose 0.4 percent in May, following an increase of 1.1 percent in April. The index for May was
13.0 percent above its year earlier level.
INDEX, 1967 - 100* (RATIO SCALE)

INDEX, 1967 - 100* (RATIO SCALE)

180

TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

180 .UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTIOI

_
—

160

^\ s
140

r^\

^~

y

160

UTILITIES

—
140

^

—

MINING

—
120

120

imiiiiin

Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll
1983
1984
1982
1981

1980
180
•^

160

\

x/

*

*

6
-^^^-*
r ^\NONDURABL /I
/
,-*z^-.

.'

140
—

\s

1 )URASLE ^

120

Illllllllll

^^ /

uinhiiu

1981

1982

1980

1983

1984

PERCENT*

-

90 .MANUFA aURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE

80

—

Vi

\

70

Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll
1982
1983
1981
1984

1980

miillllll

100

MANUF/kCTURING PRODUCTKIH

60 Illllllllll Illllllllll

1980

r— /
iiiiihini

1981

1982

*SiASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE; BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

Illllllllll Illllllllll
1983
1984
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period
Index,
1967 = 100

1967 proportion
1974
1975
1976
1977
.
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982.....
1983
1983- May
June
July
Auff
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1984' Jan
Feb r
Mar r
Apr r
May p
1

'.
.

.

....
.

Output as percent of capacity.




.

100.00
129.3
117.8
130.5
138.2
146.1
152.5
147.0
151.0
138.6
147.6
144.4
146.4
149.7
151.8
153.8
155.0
155.3
156.2
158.5
160.0
160.8
162.5
163.2

Capacity utilization
rate, percent (Federal
Reserve series) *

Industry production indexes, 1967=100

Total
industrial
production

Manufacturing

Percent
change
from year
earlier

-0.4
-8.9
10.8
5.9
5.7
4.4
-3.6
2.7
-8.2
6.5
3.7
5.6
7.9
9.7
12.0
14.2
15.1
15.5
15.4
15.9
14.9
14.0
13.0

Mining
Durable

Total

87.95
129.4
116.3
130.3
138.4
146.8
153.6
146.7
150.4
137.6
148.2
145.1
147.4
150.6
152.8
155.1
156.2
156.4
156.8
159.5
161.4
162.1
164.1
164.7

51.98
125.7
109.3
122.3
130.0
139.7
146.4
136.7
140.5
124.7
134.5
131.0
133.2
136.8
138.8
141.6
142.8
143.6
145.0
148.6
150.5
151.2
153.2
154.0

Utilities

Nondurable

35.97
134.6
126.4
141.8
150.5
156.9
164.0
161.2
164.8
156.2
168.1
165.4
167.8
170.6
172.9
174.6
175.6
174.8
173.9
175.2
177.2
177.8
179.9
180.2

6.36
115.3
112.8
114.2
118.2
124.0
125.5
132.7
142.2
126.1
116.6
112.8
112.6
115.0
116.1
117.1
118.3
121.1
123.7
124.8
124.1
123.8
122.8
125.0

5.69
143.7
146.0
151.7
156.5
161.4
166.0
168.3
169.1
168.7
172.4
169.7
169.8
176.0
179.3
179.3
176.5
176.3
182.5
181.0
176.5
180.0
179.5
180.5

Manufacturing

Industrial
materials

83.7
72.9
79.6
82.2
84.7
86.0
79.6
79.4
71.1
75.2
73.8
74.9
76.4
77.3
78.4
78.9
78.8
78.9
80.1
80.9
81.0
81.8
81.9

87.0
73.3
81.1
82.6
85.6
87.6
80.4
80.7
70.1
75.2
73.5
74.4
76.5
77.4
78.6
79.5
79.6
79.6
80.6
81.9
82.2
82.9
83.3

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

17

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND
SELECTED MANUFACTURES
[1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Products
Final products
Period
Total
Total

1967 proportion

47.82

27.68

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1983:

125.1
118.2
127.6
135.9
142.2
147.2
145.3
149.5
141.5
147.1
144.5
146.4
149.0
150.7
152.1
152.7
153.2
155.2
157.5
158.0
158.6
160.3
161.0

128.9
124.0
137.1
145.3
149.1
150.8
145.4
147.9
142.6
151.7
150.4
152.4
154.8
156.3
157.3
156.9
156.1
157.7
159.5
159.4
160.0
161.7
161.7

May
June
July
Ausr
Sept

Intermediate products
Equipment

Consumer goods

. ..

Oct
Nov
Dec
1984- Jan
Feb r
Mar r
Apr r
May p

Durable
goods

7.89
135.3
121.4
141.9
154.0
159.2
155.8
136.7
140.5
129.2
147.5
145.5
149.2
152.9
154.2
157.5
156.7
155.9
158.6
163.4
162.5
163.0
162.4
162.4

Nondurable
goods

19.79
126.3
125.1
135.2
141.9
145.1
148.8
148.9
150.9
148.0
153.4
152.3
153.6
155.6
157.1
157.2
157.1
156.1
157.3
157.9
158.2
158.8
161.4
161.5

Total

20.14
120.0
110.2
114.6
123.0
132.8
142.2
145.2
151.8
139.8
140.8
136.5
138.2
141.0
143.1
144.9
147.0
149.1
151.8
154.9
156.1
156.6
158.4
159.9

Business

12.63
142.4
128.2
135.4
147.8
160.3
171.3
173.2
181.1
157.9
153.3
147.7
150.2
153.3
156.6
158.7
161.3
164.1
167.3
170.7
171.9
172.3
173.8
175.4

Defense
and space
equipment

7.51
82.4
80.0
79.8
81.3
86.5
93.4
98.2
102.7
109.4
119.9
117.6
118.0
120.4
120.2
121.8
122.9
124.0
125.7
128.3
129.5
130.0
132.7
133.8

Total

12.89
135.3
123.1
137.2
145.1
154.1
160.5
151.9
154.4
143.3
156.6
152.2
154.5
158.1
162.2
165.4
166.5
165.5
165.4

167.8
169.0
170.3
171.3
171.8

Materials

Construction
supplies

Business
supplies

6.42
134.5
116.3
132.6
140.6
151.7
158.0
140.9
141.9
124.3
142.5
138.4
142.1
145.8
149.0
151.4
152.3
151.6
151.5
155.5
156.6
159.3
160.4
160.3

6.47
136.0
129.7
141.7
149.5
156.5
163.1
162.8
166.7
162.1
170.7
166.0
166.8
170.4
175.3
179.3
180.6
179.4
179.3
180.1
181.3
181.3
182.1

39.29

132.4
115.5
131.7
138.6
148.3
156.4
147.6
151.6
133.7
145.2
141.7
143.7
147.8
149.7
152.2
154.0
154.5
154.5
156.6
159.4
160.5
162.3
163.1

Supplementary
group:
Energy
total

12.23
125.5
125.5
129.1
132.9
135.4
137.9
137.7
137.4
135.7
135.9
133.8
133.6
138.5
139.4
139.1
137.7
138.5
141.1

141.6
141.4
141.9
142.1
142.7

[1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Nondurable manufactures

Durable manufactures
Transportation
equipment

Primary metals
Period
Total

1967 proportion

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
.
1983
1983- May
June
July
Ausr
Sept

Oct
Nov
Dec
1984* Jan

Feb r
Mar r
Apr r
May*

6.57
123.1
96.4
109.7
111.1
119.9
121.3
102.3
107.9
75.3
85.4
84.9
84.8
85.5
87.5
90.6
95.3
92.2
90.4
93.2
98.4
97.6
99.9
100.9

Iron and
steel

4.21
119.8
95.8
104.8
103.8
113.2
113.2
92.4
99.8
61.7
71.5
69.5
69.7
71.8
75.1
78.2
84.3
79.2
74.1
80.7
86.0
84.4
86.7

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

18



Fabricated metal
products

Nonelectrical
machinery

Electrical
machinery

5.93
124.2
109.9
123.9
131.0
141.6
148.5
134.1
136.4
114.8
120.2
115.5
118.5
122.7
126.0
127.4
126.9
128.5
129.2

9.15
140.1
125.1
134.5
143.6
153.6
163.7
162.8
171.2
149.0
150.6
146.1
149.5
154.2
157.3
158.3
159.2
161.8
164.3

8.05
143.8
116.5
134.8
145.4
159.4
175.0
172.8
178.4
169.3
185.5
180.1
182.4
188.3
189.2
195.8
198.4
200.1
201.5

9.27
108.7
97.4
111.1
122.2
132.5
135.4
116.9
116.1
104.9
117.8
113.8
116.6
119.7
121.1
124.7
125.5
127.3
130.8

4.50
128.2
111.1
142.0
161.1
169.9
159.9
119.0
122.3
109.8
137.1
130.4
136.2
142.3
144.3
150.9
150.9
152.9
158.9

1.64
116.2
107.6
123.2
131.2
136.3
136.9
119.3
119.1
112.6
137.2
135.8
137.4
141.3
141.6
142.3
141.7
141.0
143.8

131.7
132.8
134.9
136.7
137.0

169.5
170.9
171.8
175.5
176.2

206.2
209.9
210.9
214.5
216.1

134.9
135.2
135.4
135.0
135.3

166.3
164.4
165.8
162.6
163.0

146.0
145.6
149.3
150.0

Total

Motor
vehicles
and parts

Lumber
and
products

Apparel
products

3.31
114.3
107.6
125.7
134.2
134.2
134.4
127.0
120.4

Printing
and
publishiog

Chemicals and
products

4.72
118.2
113.3
122.5
127.6
131.5
136.9
139.6
144.2
144.1
152.5
145.2
147.4
152.0
157.8
161.7
162.7
162.0
161.7

7.74
159.4
147.2
170.9
185.7
197.4
211.8
207.1
215.6
196.1
215.0
211.0
214.7
218.3
220.3
224.1
228.4
225.6
221.1

8.75
124.0
123.4
133.0
138.8
142.7
147.5
149.6
152.1
151.1
156.4
155.6
157.7
159.9
159.3
158.2
157.6
157.1
157.7

163.4
164.8
165.2
166.0
1654

221.5
224.8
225.7
228.6

159.4
160.0
161.2

Foods

NEW CONSTRUCTION
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Construction contracts 2

Private
Period

Total new
construction
expenditures

Residential
Total

Commercial
and industrial

New housing
units

Total 1

Other

Federal,
State, and
local

Total value
index
(1977 = 100)

Commercial
and industrial
floor space
(millions of
square feet)

Billions of dollars

151.1
173.8
205.6
230.4
230.7
239.4
232.0
262.7

1976
1977
1978

1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

112.0
135.7
159.7
181.6
175.7
186.1
181.0
212.3

60.5
81.0
93.4
99.0

87.3
86.6
74.8
110.7

47.3
65.7
75.8
78.6
63.1
62.7
51.9
85.2

19.9
22.5
29.6
39.9
43.8
51.3
54.6
49.4

31.5
32.2
36.7
42.7
44.7
48.2
51.5
52.2

39.1
38.2
45.9
48.8
55.0
53.3
51.1
50.4

79.0
100.0
114.0
122.0
107.0
110.0
112.0
138.0

Annual rates

1983- Apr
May
T J
June
July.
. J
AUfiT

Sept
Get
Nov
Dec
1984- Jan
Feb r
Mar r
Apr*
May

247.4
254.8
264.3
274.2
282.0
285.4
265.6
265.8
265.3
275.7
292.2
302.0
302.5

199.5
206.0
214.7
222.8
228.5
232.6
217.0
214.9
215.5
225.0
239.4
246.9
248.2

102.0
107.5
113.5
122.3
127.1
129.1
116.5
110.4
108.0
116.9
128.5
133.3
131.9

Annual rates

77.3
82.2
87.9
92.7
94.8
95.0
92.1
91.9
92.6
95.2
100.5
102.0
103.3

1
Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately.
2
F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971
for floor space.

592
739
977
1,059
904
919
690
750

46.8
46.3
49.0
48.1
50.5
50.1
46.7
50.4
51.9
54.0
56.7
59.7
60.8

50.7
52.2
52.2
52.4
50.9
53.4
53.8
54.2
55.6
54.1
54.3
53.8
55.4

47.9
48.7
49.6
51.4
53.5
52.8
48.6
50.9
49.8
50.7
52.8
55.2
54.3

129
!50
151
137
154
143
139
145
134
150
150
144
145
168

r

652
734
785
741
783
830
856
884
803
931
751
884
960
1,013

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company, F. W. Dodge Division.

NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES
[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]
New private homes

New private housing units
Units started, by type of structure

Period
Total
1976
1977

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

1,537.5
1,987.1
2,020.3
1,745.1
1,292.2
1,084.2
1,062.2
1,703.0

1 unit
1,162.4
1,450.9
1,433.3
1,194.1
852.2
705.4
662.6
1,067.6

2-4 units

5 or more units

85.9
121.7
125.0
122.0
109.5
91.1
80.0
113.5

289.2
414.4
462.0
429.0
330.5
287.7
319.6
522.0

Units
authorized
1,296.2
1,690.0
1,800.5
1,551.8
1,190.6
985.5
1,000.5
1,605.2

Units
completed

Homes sold

Homes for
sale at end of
period *

1,377.2
1,657.1
1,867.5
1,870.8
1,501.6
1,265.7
1,005.5
1,390.3

646
819
817
709
545
436
412
623

353
402
414
3
398
336
272
251
300

1,313
1,368
1,427
1,716
1,512
1,567
1,445
1,489
1,606
1,565
1,590
1,625

654
655
606
558
597
624
636
755
681
697
667
634

273
283
289
296
299
301
304
300
302
304
322
329

Vacancy rate
for rental
housing units
(percent) 2

5.6
5.2
5.0
5.4
5.4
5.0
5.3
5.7

Seasonally adjusted annual rates

1983: May
June
July...
Aucr
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1984' Jan
Feb
Mar r.
Apr r
May*
1
2

1,779
1,743
1,793
1,873
1,679
1,672
1,730
1,694
1,980
2,262
1,662
1,990
1,782

1,150
1,124
1,048
1,124
1,038
1,017
1,074
1,021
1,301
1,463
1,071
1,191
1,093

102
118
127
109
115
96
130
133
114
148
137
171
148

527
501
618
640
526
559
526
540
565
651
454
628
541

Seasonally adjusted.
Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable
with earlier data.
3
New series beginning March 1979.




1,660
1,764
1,752
1,671
1,540
1,650
1,649
1,602
1,799
1,902
1,727
1,758
1,745

5.5
5.8
5.5
5.6

NOTE.—Units authorized beginning 1978 relate to 16,000 permit-issuing places; data for
1973-77 are for 14,000 places.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

19

BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade
Manufacturing and trade sales rose 0.8 percent in April and inventories rose $8.1 billion. According to advance
data, retail sales rose 0.2 percent in May following an increase of 3.1 percent in April.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
600

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

.

550
500
450

^-~-

*~

-

/
MANUFACTURING AND
TRAC E INVENTOf IES

-

400
350
300

250

160
150
140
130
120
^
110

X

L INVENTOR ES

<~

^*"

^^

-

^^^

•W

"

100

-*•"••—-%%

-./"
"

'-"V-%..- .X"'*

—

*''

90 80

MAhJUFACTURING
AND TRADE SALE:S

"

-

tETAILSALE!

70 -

-

60

_

50

mmm

200

Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll
1981

1980

1983

1982

1984

RATIO*

-

150 -

1.80
1.60

1.40

100 Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illlllllill Illllllllll
1981

1980

1983

1982

1.20

1984

1980

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Manufacturing and
trade1

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Sales

Inventories 3

Inventories 3

Sales2

Period
2

Inventory-sales ratio 4

Retail

Wholesale

Sales

2

Inventories8

Total

Durable
goods
stores

Nondurable goods
stores

Total

Durable
goods
stores

ManufacNondurable goods
stores

and
trade1

Retail

Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

204,277
229,624
260,263
297,565
327,113
355,762
343,504
367,096

318,544
351,055
398,457
449,542
491,431
523,623
505,546
514,336

50,694
55,987
66,117
78,680
92,658
100,673
94,765
98,649

64,078
72,311
85,568
98,008
111,792
115,854
115,563
118,067

54,781
60,435
67,242
74,948
80,064
86,960
89,547
97,831

18,150
20,724
23,211
25,179
24,365
26,306
27,041
32,095

36,631
39,711
44,031
49,770
55,699
60,654
62,506
65,735

79,273
89,530
102,504
110,592
115,550
125,710
125,384
135,843

37,841
43,135
49,858
53,413
53,952
58,559
56,748
63,447

41,432
46,395
52,646
57,179
61,598
67,151
68,636
72,396

1.48
.46
.44
.43
.45
.43
.50
.37

1.38
1.40
.43
.44
.41
.39
.39
1.33

1983- Apr
May
June

351,012
360,488
368,971
370,181
373,283
379,229
382,457
386,564
395,682

500,263
501,035
500,615
501,379
504,284
506,984
509,171
511,453
514,336

92,890
96,646
98,577
99,941
100,894
102,171
104,210
103,793
106,892

114,902
113,557
113,172
114,124
114,227
115,674
116,825
116,958
118,067

95,125
97,239
98,638
98,832
98,277
99,537
100,923
101,896
102,438

30,671
31,705
32,790
32,597
31,951
32,905
33,882
34,641
35,532

64,454
65,534
65,848
66,235
66,326
66,632
67,041
67,255
66,906

127,613
129,197
129,782
129,556
130,983
132,142
132,777
134,622
135,843

58,057
58,796
59,120
58,614
59,400
60,627
61,048~
62,441
63,447

69,556
70,401
70,662
70,942
71,583
71,515
71,729
72,181
72,396

1.43
1.39
1.36
1.35
1.35
1.34
1.33
1.32
1.30

1.34
1.33
1.32
1.31
1.33
1.33
1.32
1.32
1.33

401,133
398,815
401,905
405,220

518,062
527,216
532,766
540,862

110,125
108,328
109,553
110,791

119,201
120,411
121,477
123,577

106,602
105,482
103,873
r
!07,097
107,288

37,127
36,909
35,306
r
37,319
37,395

69,475
68,573
68,567
r
69,778
69,893

137,977
142,731
143,910
146,893

63,749
66,513
66,946
68,983

74,228
76,218
76,964
77,910

1.29
1.32
1.33
1.33

1.29
1.35
1.39
1.37

July
* *

Aug
SeDt...
Oct
Nov ...
Dec

1984: Jan
Feb....
Mar1"
Apr*
May p
1
2
3

See page 21 for manufacturing.
Monthly average for year and total for month.
Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted.

20



4
For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly
data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
In April, manufacturers1 shipments and new orders fell while inventories and unfilled orders rose. In May, according
to advance data, durable goods shipments and new orders rose.
BULK 3NS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
240
SHIPMENTS
200
160

i—JH^r

—~

^>

B

-^^a

TOTAL

120

DURABLE GOODS
\f „

100

80

§*" '«*•'"• *iy^

-^Si**"

60
40 Ullilijlil

»•»*•—•»«*—, pur
/b
*""P^-X^
i ^
r
NC)NDURABLE 300DS
I——

iiliiliiili

iiiiihiiii

IHliliiiii liiiiliiiii

160

NEW ^RDER*

,-7-*—-^ —7
^s-

^^s~^

r

TOTAL

Vk^•*'j\'~

100

«tf ^0m^» '™^*'^^»,
*^i
%

-•V*

-"

._._
160

— ^ »^^_ !—_ _
r

r:|] _ r --

DL RABLE GOO )S

120
100
/*"

80

.—

NON DURABLE GC ODS

40 Illllllllll Illlllllill Illllllllll Illllllllll

NONDURAI IE GOODS

Illllllllll

RATIO*
2.2

INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO

• DURABLE GOODS

120

80

200

60

BULK 5NS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
240
200

BILLI ONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
360
INVENTORIES
320
280
f~~
•—
1
/-<!•-**————•*"""
"
240 ^
TOTAL -

2.0
1.8
1.6

60

~r\ -^

-

^V-^x

1.4

40

iliiiilliii iiiiihiiii liiiiliiiii iiiiihiiii iiiiihiiii
1980

1981

1982

1983

1.2

iiiiihiiii

1984

iiliilillii iiiiiliilii

1980

iiiiiiiiiiiliiijjhiiii

1982

1981

SEASONALLY ADJlJSTED
sOURCE: DEPARTMf NT OF COMMERC

1983

|

1984

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Manufacturers' shipments *

Manufacturers' new orders 1

Manufacturers' inventories 2

Durable goods
Period
Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable goods

Durable
goods

Total

Nondurable goods

Total
Total

Capital
goods
industries,
nondefense

Nondurable goods

Manufacturers'
unfilled
orders 8

Manufacturers'
inventory—
shipments
ratio 4

Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted

1976
1977
1978.....
1979
..
1980
1981
1982
1983

98,802
113,202
126,905
143,936
154,391
168,129
159,193
170,617

50,689
59,267
67,848
76,060
77,550
83,872
76,859
85,126

48,113
53,935
59,057
67,876
76,841
84,257
82,334
85,491

175,193
189,214
210,385
240,942
264,089
282,059
264,599
260,426

112,581
121,601
137,825
160,451
174,552
186,053
175,009
171,571

62,612
67,613
72,560
80,491
89,537
96,006
89,590
88,855

99,543
115,032
131,546
147,403
156,161
167,761
157,389
173,433

51,398
61,082
72,339
79,451
79,360
83,562
75,129
87,806

12,799
15,291
19,458
23,231
23,259
24,050
20,681
22,764

48,145
53,950
59,207
67,953
76,801
84,199
82,260
85,627

182,499
203,475
259,755
301,982
323,312
318,794
296,147
330,122

1983- Apr
May
June
July
" •>

162,997
166,603
171,756
171,408
174,112
177,521
177,324
180,875
186,352

80,124
82,011
85,594
85,076
86,730
88,963
89,181
92,311
96,351

82,873
84,592
86,162
86,332
87,382
88,558
88,143
88,564
90,001

257,748
258,281
257,661
257,699
259,074
259,168
259,569
259,873
260,426

170,368
171,065
170,154
169,679
170,283
170,084
170,219
170,656
171,571

87,380
87,216
87,507
88,020
88,791
89,084
89,350
89,217
88,855

165,869
168,090
175,877
174,451
176,360
180,336
182,911
186,606
188,374

82,865
83,286
89,460
87,878
88,820
91,509
94,776
97,991
98,444

21,960
21,849
23,827
22,060
22,887
25,295
25,499
24,680
24,893

83,004
84,804
86,417
86,573
87,540
88,827
88,135
88,615
89,930

303,067
304,554
308,675
311,718
313,967
316,782
322,369
328,099
330,122

1.69
1.61
.57
.57
.66
.64
.73
1.52
1.58
1.55
1.50
1.50
1.49
1.46
1.46
1.44
1.40

184,406
185,005
188,479
187,332

95,283
96,297
96,990
95,697
98 147

89,123
88,708
91,489
91,635

260,884
264,074
267,379
270,392

171,549
173,203
175,751
177,993

89,335
90,871
91,628
92,399

99,439
102,345
105,183
98,317
101,546

25,093
27,018
26,860
25,885
28,637

89,232
88,991
91,294
91,398

334,385
340,725
348,717
351,099

1.41
1.43
1.42
1.44

Alii?

Sept
Oct

Nov
Dec

1984: Jan

Feb
Mar
Apr r .
May p
1
2
3

Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the s
Book value, end of period.
End of period.




r

188,671
191,336
196,477
189,715

r

r

4
For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for
monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

21

PRICES
PRODUCER PRICES
In May, the producer price index for all finished goods was unchanged, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished
consumer foods fell 1.2 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0.4 percent. Prices of capital
equipment rose 0.2 percent.
INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE)
320

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

— FINISHED GOODS

/-/-SMC

^ONS UMER GOODS
DING FOODS

300

INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE)
320
—

300
x-"-;

^j

_

.'**

*•«.

_

r£2

280

#?
y?-•i-A-l

—

TOTAL FINISHED
GOODS

260

*

260

\

CAPITAL EQUIPMENT

S^* >'

240

280

"

c

ONSUMER Fa >DS

""
240

s^sAr

220

—

220

/•^S7

200

^—^

180 \W v

£****
r „-''"

.1

-^'

^--—

—

200

*

_

x

180

,'*

—

160

160

140

Minium imiliim lllllllllll
1976

lllllllllll
1980

1979

1978

1977

lllllllllll lllllllllll lllllllllll 140
1984
1983
1982

1981

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Finished goods
Period

Total
finished
goods

Consumer
foods

Finished goods excluding consumer foods
Consumer goods
Total
Total

1976

1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1983: May
June
JulyJ
\
Auff
Sept
Get
Nov
Dec
1984: Jan r.
Feb
Mar
Aw
May
1




Durable

170.6
181.7
195.9
217.7
247.0
269.8
280.7
285.2

180.4
189.9
207.2
226.2
239.5
253.6
259.3
261.8

166.1
177.7
190.7
213.3
247.8
273.3
285.8
290.8

162.6
174.3
186.7
211.5
250.8
276.5
287.8
291.4

144.5
152.8
166.9
183.2
206.2
218.6
226.7
233.1

284.1
285.2
285.2
286.3
286.6
287.1
286.9
287.4

262.0
260.5
259.3
260.2
262.1
264.8
263.9
265.8

289.3
291.3
291.8
292.8
292.6
292.3
292.5
292.4

289.5
292.1
292.5
293.5
293.4
292.8
292.9
292.4

233.1
233.8
234.1
234.7
234.4
233.0
233.8
234.0

289.1
290.2
291.6
291.6
291.5

272.8
274.5
276.7
275.1
271.9

292.3
293.1
294.3
294.8
295.7

292.0
292.6
293.8
294.1
295.2

234.0
235.3
237.3
237.2
236.8

Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds.

22

Intermediate materials

Nondurable

174.8
189.3
200.0
231.3
283.9
319.6
333.6
335.3
332.0
336.0
336.7
337.9
337.9
338.1
337.5
336.5
335.7
335.9
336.3
337.0
339.3

Crude materials

Capital
equipment

Total
finished
consumer
goods

Total

Foods
and
feeds 1

Other

Total

Foodstuffs
and
feedstuffs

Other

173.4
184.6
199.2
216.5
239.8
264.3
279.4
287.2

169.7
180.7
194.9
217.9
248.9
271.3
281.0
284.6

189.1
201.5
215.6
242.2
280.3
306.0
310.4
312.3

185.3
190.5
203.1
226.1
252.6
250.3
239.4
247.9

189.4
202.3
216.5
244.4
282.3
310.1
315.7
317.1

202.7
209.2
234.4
274.3
304.6
329.0
319.5
323.6

190.2
192.1
216.2
247.9
259.2
257.4
247.8
252.2

228.5
245.0
272.3
330.0
401.0
482.3
473.9
477.4

286.5
287.0
287.5
288.8
288.5
288.6
289.0
289.8

283.5
284.7
284.6
285.5
286.1
286.6
286.3
286.7

309.1
311.3
312.2
313.4
315.3
316.2
316.6
317.1

243.3
242.5
242.1
249.4
261.4
258.4
258.9
257.8

314.0
316.4
317.4
318.2
319.5
320.6
321.0
321.5

250.9
247.1
242.0
251.9
256.2
258.2
259.6
263.6

474.0
480.5
481.3
482.6
485.2
482.3
483.1
484.4

290.5
291.9
292.9
293.8
294.4

288.7
289.7
291.3
290.9
290.6

317.0
317.4
319.1
319.3
320.2

261.1
256.2
259.5
260.3
259.6

321.2
322.0
323.6
323.8
324.8

321.6
321.1
317.9
325.0
328.8
329.2
330.4
333.6
336.0
331.1
337.7
337.5
334.3

269.4
261.3
272.2
269.0
261.7

479.9
481.6
479.4
485.4|
490.8

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

CONSUMER PRICES
In May, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted (0.3 percent not
seasonally adjusted). The index was 4.2 percent above its level in May 1983.
INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE)

INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE)

320

320

300

300

280

280

260

260

240

240

ALL ITEMS
220

220

200

200

180

180

160

160

140

140
1977

1976

1979

1978

1980

1983

1982

1981

SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1984

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1967 = 100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Transportation

Housing
Shelter
Period

All

items 1

Food

HomeTotal1

Total

Renters'

costs 2

NSA

Rel. imp.5
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1983: May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Get
Nov
Dee
1984: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
1

100.0
170.5
181.5
195.4
217 4
246.8
2724
289.1
2984
297.1
298.1
299.3
300.3
301.8
302.6
303.1
303.5
305.2
306.6
307.3
308.8
309.7

owners' 2

costs

NSA

18.7
180.8
192.2
211.4
2345
254.6
2746
285.7
291 7
292.1
291.5
291.2
291.7
292.3
293.5
294.1
295.4
300.2
302.2
301.8
301.7
300.9

37.6
1746
186.5
2028
227 6
263 3
293 5
314.7
323 1
321.1
321.9
323.2
324.1
325.3
326.0
327.4
328.1
329.6
331.1
331.2
333.3
334.1

21.5
1790
191.1
2104
239 7
281.7
314 7
337.0
3448
342.3
343.3
345.1
346.3
348.0
349.3
350.7
351.8
353.0
353.8
355.3
357.6
358.7

7.0

103 0
102.2
102.5
103.1
103.6
104.2
104.6
105.0
105.3
105.7
106.0
106.5
107.4
107.8

14.0

102 5
102.0
102.2
102.7
103.0
103.5
103.9
104.3
104.5
104.9
105.1
105.6
106.2
106.5

Maintenance
and

repairs




Appar-

and

upkeep

other
utilities

el and

Total l

New

cars

Motor
fuel 3

Medical
care

Iner4

gy

and

shelter

NSA

0.5
1996
214.7
2330
2564
2857
3144
334.1
346 3
344.3
345.1
346.1
347.9
346.6
351.1
353.4
354.7
356.7
353.5
355.3
356.3
357.3

Includes items not shown separately.
December 1982=100.
Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981.
4
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant,
etc. also included through 1982.
8
Relative importance, December 1983.
2
3

Fuel

All
items
less
food,
energy,

8.2

5.2

182 7
202.2
2160
239 3
278.6
319 2
350.8
3703
368.4
369.3
370.7
371.9
372.9
372.2
374.4
373.8
378.2
384.8
380.9
383.9
384.6

147 6
154.2
159 6
166 6
1784
1869
191 8
1965
195.7
196.3
197.3
197.9
198.2
198.2
198.5
198.5
199.0
198.5
198.6
198.5
198.6

21.8
1655
177.2
185 5
212 0
249 7
2800
291 5
2984
296.4
297.3
298.7
300.8
302.8
304.4
305.5
306.1
306.7
306.6
309.4
311.2
312.7

3.5
1357
142.9
153 8
1660
1793
1902
197.6
202 6
201.1
201.3
201.7
203.3
204.9
205.5
205.3
205.7
205.6
206.4
207.4
207.6
207.2

5.9
1779
188.2
1963
265 6
369 1
4109
389.4
3764
379.8
381.0
382.5
383.7
383.7
383.2
381.6
379.8
375.9
370.5
374.0
375.4
376.1

6.1

184 7
202.4
2194
239 7
2659
2945
3287
357 3
354.8
356.5
358.5
360.3
361.7
362.9
364.7
366.0
368.6
371.5
373.5
375.3
377.3

11.9
189 3
207.3
2204
275 9
361 1
4100
416 1
419 3
420.5
421.6
423.2
424.6
425.1
424.2
424.5
423.3
421.7
422.7
421.8
424.7
425.4

47.9
1599
169.5
179 1
191 5
2083
228 1
245 6
2584
256.3
257.1
258.4
259.7
260.9
262.2
263.5
264.2
265.8
266.7
267.8
269.1
270.0

NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and
clerical workers.
Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs and
therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

23

CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Change from preceding period

Period

Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate

Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate

Consumer goods

Consumer goods

Consumer goods

Total
finished
goods

Total
finished
goods

Capital
equipment

Excluding foods

Foods

Excluding
foods

Poods

Capital
equipment

Total
finished
goods

Capital
equipment

Excluding
foods

Poods

Change
from
year
earner,
total
finished
goods
NSA

Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA
1975
1976
1977

6.7
6.0
6.7
8.5
17.5
14.2
8.5
4.2

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

6.6
3.7
6.9
9.2
12.8
11.8
7.1
3.7
.6

1983- May
June
July .
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

0.3
.4
0
.4
.1
.2
-.1
.2

-0.4
-.6
-.5
.3
.7
1.0
-.3
.7

0.6
.9
.1
.3
-.0
2
'.0
2

0.2
.2
.2
.5
-.1
.0
.1
.3

0.4
2.6
2.7
3.1
2.0
2.7
.8
1.1

1984: Jan r.
Feb
Mar r
Apr
May

.6
.4
.5
0
-.0

2.6
r
.6
.8
-.6
-1.2

-.1
.2
.4
.1
.4

.2
.5
.3
.3
.2

2.8
4.7
6.0
3.5
1.8

5.5
-2.5
6.9
11.7
7.4
7.5
1.4
2.1
2.3

8.2
6.4
7.3
7.9
8.8
11.4
9.2
3.9
1.9

Q

10.8
4.4
6.5
7.8
11.1
13.5
9.2
4.0
1.6

Change, month to month

-2.7
2.5
8.8
5.8
5.8

-0.6
4.5
6.8
5.6
1.8
.4
.8
-1.4

2.1
1.7
2.3
3.2
2.1
1.5
.3
1.8

-0.6
-.3
1.1
1.8
2.3
2.7
2.0
1.5

2.1
.7
.2
-.7
.8
1.3
1.5
4.1

-3.4
-2.0
1.1
2.5
3.1
3.6
2.4
.2

2.6
1.9
2.4
2.7
1.9
1.9
1.8
2.0

2.3
1.8
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.2
.7
.6

12.6
17.1
17.4
3.4
-3.7

-1.1
-.4
1.9
2.9
3.6

2.7
4.1
4.3
4.6
3.5

2.8
2.7
3.5
3.2
3.2

10.7
11.3
11.5
7.9
6.2

-.3
.6
.3
.9
1.6

2.1
2.2
3.1
3.6
3.8

2.0
2.3
2.9
2.9
2.6

1.4
-.9
5.7

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.

CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
.Transportation

Housing
Shelter
Period

All
items l

Pood

Total1
Total

1

Homeowners'
costs

Eenters'
costs

Fuel
and
other
utilities

Apparel
and
upkeep

Total1

New
cars

Motor
fuel 2

Medical
care

Energy 8

All
items
less
food,
energy,
and
shelter

Addendum: All items, percent change
(annual rate)
Prom
previous
quarter 4

Prom
3
months
earlier

Prom
6
months
earlier

Prom
year
earlier
NSA

NSA

Change, December to December, NSA

1975

1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

2.3
4.5
4.2
3.2
5.5
6.8
3.6
1.6
2.9

9.8
8.8
4.3
7.7
18.2
14.7
11.0
1.7
3.9

7.0
4.8
6.8
9.0
13.3
12.4
8.9
3.9
3.8

6.5
.6
8.0
11.8
10.2
10.2
4.3
3.1
2.6

7.5
5.4
7.6
9.9
15.2
13.7
10.2
3.6
3.5

7.3
4.2
8.7
11.5
17.4
15.1
9.9
2.4
4.7

5.1

4.5"

0.4
.2
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.2

0.2
-.2
-t
.2
.2
.4
.2
.4

0.2
.2
.4
.3
.4
.2
.4
.2

0.3
.3
.5
.3
.5
.4
.4
.3

0.5
.3
.6
.5
.6
.4
.4
.3

0.3
.2
.5
.3
.5
.4
.4
.2

0.5
.2
.4
.3
.3
-.2
.6
2

0.5
.3
.5
.3
.2
0
.2
0

0.9
.3
.5
.7
.7
.5
.4
.2

.6
.4
.2
.5
.2

1.6
.7
-.1
-.0
3

.5
.5
.0
.6
.2

.3
.2
.4
.6
.3

.4
.3
.5
.8
.4

.4
.2
.5
.6
.3

1.2
1.7
10
.8
.2

.3
g
.1
-.1
.1

.2
-.0
.9
.6
.5

11.2
9.0
8.1
5.9
16.0
13.6
14.5
9.7
1.8

11.0
2.6
4.9
8.5
52.2
18.9
9.4
-6.5
-1.7

9.9
10.1
8.8
8.8
10.1
10.0
12.5
11.0
6.4

11.6
6.9
7.2
8.0
37.4
18.1
11.9
1.3
-.5

6.4
7.0
5.2
6.5
7.2
9.9
9.4
6.1
5.0

3.0
.3
.4
.3
0
-.1
-.4
5

0.5
.5
.6
.5
.4
.3
.5
.4

1.7
.3
.4
.3
.1
-.2
.1
-.3

0.2
.3
.5
.5
.5
.5
.5
.3

-.0 -1.0
.4 -1.4
.5
.9
.1
.4
-.2 •
.2

.7
.8
.5
.5
.5

4
'.2
-.2
.7
.2

.6
.3
.4
.5
.3

7.3
4.8
7.2
6.2
7.4
7.5
6.8
1.6
3.4

9.1
5.8
6.5
7.7
11.3
13.5
10.4
6.1
3.2

Change, month to month

1983: May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct........
Nov
Dec
1984: Jan
Peb
Mar
Apr
May
1
Includes
2
Includes
3

items not shown separately.
direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981.
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant,
etc., also included through 1982.
4
Changes are shown in the middle month of the quarter.
NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.

24



-0.1
.1
.2
.8
.8
.3
-.1
.2

4.4
4.1
4.5

5.0

4.9
5.4
4.1
3.8
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.0

2.3
3.3
3.4
4.3
5.0
4.4
4.2
4.3

3.5
2.6
2.4
2.6
2.9
2.9
3.2
3.8

5.0
5.0
5.0
4.3
3.6

4.8
4.8
4.5
4.6
4.3

4.1
4.6
4.7
4.5
4.2

Data beginning January 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers.
Data beginning January 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs
and therefore are not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received by farmers fell 1.4 percent in May and prices paid by farmers were unchanged.
INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE)

INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE)

180

60
1976

1977

1984

1978

J/RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID,
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

[1977 = 100]
Prices received by farmers
Period

1976
1977
1978

All farm
products

Prices paid by farmers

Livestock and
products

Crops

All commodities,
services,
interest, taxes,
and wage rates *

Production
items, interest,
taxes, and wage
rates

Production
items

Ratio2

102
100
115
132
134
139
133
135

102
100
105
116
125
134
121
129

101
100
124
147
144
143
145
141

95
100
108
123
138
150
157
161

95
100
109
125
139
151
155
159

97
100
108
125
138
148
150
153

107
100
106
107
97
93
85
84

Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

137
134
132
139
136
134
135
140

129
127
126
139
135
134
134
137

144
141
137
139
137
135
135
143

161
161
160
161
162
161
162
163

160
159
159
159
160
159
160
161

153
153
152
153
154
153
154
155

85
83
83
86
84
83
83
86

1984: Jan
Peb
Mar
Apr
May

144
144
145
146
144

138
137
139
140
144

150
151
151
151
145

164
165
165
166
166

162
163
164
164
164

156
156
157
158
157

88
87
88
88
87

1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1983- May
June
July
A.US

1
Includes
2

items not shown separately.
Percentage ratio of index of prices received by fanners to index of prices paid, interest,
and wage rates.




NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes
have been converted to a 1977 = 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.

25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES
Growth in Ml and M2 accelerated in May while growth in M3 slowed.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATiO SCALE)
3,200

3,200

2,800

2,800
2,400
2,000

300
1976

1977

1984

1978

* AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]

Ml

Period

1976:
19771978:
1979:
1980:
1981:
1982:
1983:
1983:

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec r
Dec
May
June
July
Aug r
Sept
Oet rr
Nov
Decr.
1984- Janrr
Feb .
Mar71"
Apr ".
May p

M2

M3

Sum of currency,
demand deposits,
travelers' checks,
and other
checkable
deposits (OCDs)

Ml plus overnight
RPsand
Eurodollars,
MMMF balances
(general purpose
and broker/dealer),
MMDAs, and
savings and small
time deposits

M2 plus large
time deposits,
term RPs, term
Eurodollars, and
institution-only
MMMF balances

M3 plus
other liquid
assets

310.4
335.4
363.1
389.1
414.9
441.9
480.5
525.3
506.6
510.9
514.9
517.4
518.9
521.6
523.0
525.3
530.0
532.9
535.2
535.4
541.0

1,163.6
1,286.7
1,389.1
1,498.5
1,632.6
1,796.6
1,965.3
2,196.2
2,102.2
2,117.0
2,126.6
2,135.3
2,147.9
2,167.2
2,182.1
2,196.2
2,206.8
2,222.5
2,230.0
2,242.5
2,259.6

1,311.9
1,472.9
1,647.1
1,804.8
1,989.8
2,236.7
2,460.3
2,706.8
2,571.0
2,593.0
2,604.0
2,617.2
2,636.4
2,656.4
2,688.5
2,706.8
2,721.8
2,744.6
2,766.0
2,790.7
2,814.5

1,516.6
1,704.7
1,910.6
2,117.1
2,326.0
2,598.4
2,868.7
3,176.9
3,003.3
3,033.1
3,059.7
3,075.1
3,097.6
3,114.0
3,146.5
3,176.9
3,197.5
3,227.1
3,269.5
3,298.3

1
Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. Beginning with this issue,
data are on a monthly-average basis rather than end-of-month basis.
2
Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.

NOTE.—The nontransactions portion of M2 is now being seasonally adjusted as a whole to reduce

26



L

Debt

Debt of
domestic
nonfinancial
sectors
(monthly
average) 1

r
2,507.5
r
2,823.1
r
3, 194.2
r
3,578.1
r
3,920.8
r
4,301.3
r

4,691.7
5,203.9

r
4,877.0
r
4,931.4
r
4,984.0
r

5,025.2
5,066.4
5,109.2
5,152.5
5,203.9
5,260.3
5,317.2
5,371.2
5,430.9

Percent change from year or 6
months earlier 2

Ml

6.6
8.1
8.3
7.2
6.6
6.5
8.7
9.3
13.1
13.1
12.7
11.0
9.3
9.7
6.6
5.7
6.0
6.1
6.4
5.4
7.0

M2

M3

13.7
10.6
8.0
7.9
8.9
10.0
9.4
11.7
16.7
16.0
11.1
8.1
7.9
8.4
7.7
7.6
7.7
8.3
7.8
7.1
7.2

11.9
12.3
11.8
9.6
10.3
12.4
10.0
10.0
10.2
11.1
9.4
8.1
8.4
8.5
9.3
9.0
9.3
10.0
10.1
10.4
9.6

distortions caused by substantial portfolio shifts arising from regulatory and financial el
recent years, especially shifts to MMDAs in 1983. A similar procedure is being used to
adjust the remaining nontransactions balances in M3.
See p. 27 for components.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Debt

10.7

r
!2.6
r

!3.1
12.0
r
9.6
r
9.7
r
9.1
10.9
r
9.9
10.5
11.2
11.7
11.8
11.7
11.6
11.4
11.4
12.0
12.4
13.0

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

De-

Period

mand

Currency

de-

posits

Other
checkable
deposits
(OCDs)

Overnight
repurchase
agreements
(EPs),
net, plus
overnight
Eurodollars
NSA

805
1976' Dec
1977- Dec
885
1978: Dec .... 97.4
1979- Dec
1063
116 7
1980' Dec
1240
1981- Dec
1982: Dec .... 134.1
1983: Dec .... 148.0
1983:
140.5
May
141 6
June .
July
142.4
1435
Aug
144.8
SeDt
1460
Oct
Nov
147.2
1480
Dec
1984:
Jan r
149.9
1502
Feb r .
r
Mar
150.9
r
Apr
151 8
May*
152.9

2244
2396
253.8
261 9
2665
2362
239.7
243.7

27
42
8.5
17 1
27 6
774
102.4
128.8

241.5
2430
244.5
243 7
243.0
243 6
242.8
243 7

120.0
121.7
123.4

244.5
243 8
244.0
2453
245.2

Money market
mutuaIfund
balaiaces
General
purpose
and
broker/
dealer

Institution
only

NSA

106

NSA

NSA

Term
repurchase
agreements
(EPs)

Term
Eurodollars
(net)

NSA

43.0
376.0

391 0
446.0
521.9
635.8
731 4
827.3
856.9
793.1

118 1
145 1
195.2
222 1
2585
301 6
327.9
325.9

14 1
194
27.0
30 1
34 7
370
40.2
56.0

148
202
31.8
44 7
503
675
81.7
92.3

40.5
39.5
38.6
38.4
38.8
398
40.6
403

357.4
368.6
370.5
368.6
369.5
370.5
372.9
376.0

323.1
322.8
320.7
319.3
317.9
317.1
315.4
312.9

722.6
724.8
737.0
749.0
759.0
773.0
785.5
793.1

298.0
303.0
304.2
308.6
313.2
315.6
320.8
3259

45.6
45.5
44.3
46.9
48.0
47.3
53.4
56.0

92.3
91.9
92.1
91 9
90.4
r
868

380.3
386.0
392.5
3964
394.6

309.9
306.6
305.5
305.4
305.2

797.0
800.9
803.4
808.3
817.6

333.4
340.3
348.3
355.7
367.1

53.3
54.4
55.9
59.4
59.1

91.1
91.2
94.9

44.1
56.2

1256
126.4
127 2
128.2
1288

55.4
56.1
53.1
52.4
53.5
57.0
55.2
r
562

141.4
140.2
138.7
139 1
137.9
1375
138.8
1382

130.7
133 8
135.3
1332
137.8

58.6
59.5
58.3
56.9
59.2

137.9
142 1
144.8
1464
147.0

r

Small
denomination
time
deposits 1

452 8
491.3
480.8
423.1
401 4
345.7
362.1
312.9

61 6
1506
185.2
138.2

359

Large
denomination
time
deposits l

NSA

Savings
deposits

40.6
41 6
41.8
41 8
42.0

24
24
6.4
334

06
.9
3.1
9.5
150
36.2
48.4
40.3

14.7
20.3
21 2
28 3

Money
market
deposit
accounts
(MMDAs)

93.3
923

954

Savings
bonds

Shortterm
Treasury
securities

Bankers'

Commercial
paper

10 8
14 1
22 0
27 1
32 0

acceptances

764
784
80.3
82.0
79 5 108 6
72 3 133 8
67 7 1499
67.9 187.8
71.0 r223.3

398
43.9
43.4

51 7
62 9
792
970
98 1
1042
108.8
132.4

69.5 198.5
698 2068
70.1 219.6
703 222 9
70.5 221.6
707 2185
70.8 r217.2
710 r223 3

41 0
406
41 6
43 6
438
42 8
430
434

123.4
122 9
1244
121 0
1253
125 7
1269
1324

226.6
231 8
245.8
242 3

42.8
41 7
42.6
436

135.0
137 2
142.9
1492

704

71 8

71.2
71 7
72.2
72.5

94.3

1

Travelers cheeks are a component of money stock but are not shown here.
NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.

NOTE.—See note p. 26.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than
$100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively,

CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT
[Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted]
Net change in installment credit outstanding *

Installment credit outstanding (end of period)
Period
Total

Automobile

Kevolving

Mobile
home

Other

Total

Automobile

Bevolving

Mobile
home

Other

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec

190,725
226,646
269,392
307,115
309,694
330,218
348,944
388,718

67,798
82,890
101,863
116,523
116,808
125,323
129,799
141,876

16,505
36,427
45,004
53,174
54,900
60,309
65,453
75,564

14,530
14,897
15,199
16,843
17,302
17,879
22,119
23,460

91,892
92,432
107,326
120,575
120,684
126,707
131,573
147,818

21,338
35,921
42,746
37,723
2,579
20,524
18,726
39,774

10,519
15,092
18,973
14,660
285
8,515
4,476
12,077

2,038
19,922
8,577
8,170
1,726
5,409
5,144
10,111

148
367
302
1,644
459
577
4,240
1*341

8,633
540
14,894
13,249
109
6,023
4,866
16,245

1983: Apr
May
June
July

356,539
358,811
362,672
366,378
370,471
373,024
378,117
382,936
388,718

130,769
131,475
132,915
134,764
137,136
137,431
139,140
140,408
141,876

67,785
68,369
69,473
70,089
70,630
71,209
72,447
73,874
75,564

22,576
22,676
22,839
23,076
23,298
23,553
23,523
23,459
23,460

135,409
136,291
137,445
138,449
139,407
140,831
143,007
145,195
147,818

2,041
2,272
3,861
3,706
4,093
2,553
5,093
4,819
5,782

441
706
1,440
1,849
2,372
295
1,709
1,268
1,468

971
584
1,104
616
541
579
1,238
1,427
1,690

51
100
163
237
222
255
30
-64
1

578
882
1,154
1,004
958
1,424
2,176
2,188
2,623

393,187
399,795
405,665
412,073

143,982
146,781
147,107
149,265

76,069
77,342
80,304
82,172

23,368
23,241
23,526
23,811

149,768
152,430
154,728
156,825

4,469
6,608
5,870
6,408

2,106
2,799
326
2,158

505
1,273
2,962
1,868

-92
-127
285
285

1,950
2,662
2,298
2,097

19761977:
19781979:
19801981:
19821983:

»

AufiT

Sept
Oct.....
Nov
Dec.
1984* Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr

..

.. .

1
For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding
month.




Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

27

BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES
Growth in commercial and industrial loans accelerated in May.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

INVESTMENT IN OTHER SECURITIES

INVESTMENT IN
U.S. TREASURY SECURITIES

40

40
•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AVERAGES OF WEDNESDAY FIGURES
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAl RESERVE SYSTEM

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Depository institutions 3

All commercial* banks1
Loans and leases
Period

Total loans
and
investments

Total2

Reserves adjusted
for changes in
reserve requirements

Investments

Commercial
and industrial
loans

U.S. Treasury
securities

Other
securities

Total

Nonborrowed

Borrowings
(millions of dollars,
unadjusted)

Required

Total

Seasonal

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec

804.6
891.5
,013.5
,135.9
,239.6
,316.3
,412.0
,568.1

555.0
632.5
747.0
849.9
915.1
973.9
1,042.0
1,132.6

190.9
210.9
245.9
291.2
326.8
358.0
392.3
413.4

100.8
99.8
93.8
94.5
110.0
111.0
130.9
188.0

148.8
159.3
172.8
191.5
214.4
231.4
239.2
247.5

25.28
26.29
27.55
28.72
30.64
31.51
33.63
35.28

25.22
25.72
26.68
27.25
28.95
30.88
32.99
34.51

25.00
26.10
27.32
28.39
30.13
31.20
33.13
34.72

53
569
868
1,473
1,690
636
634
774

13
55
135
81
116
54
33
96

1983* Apr
May
June

,460.6
,474.4
1,488.0
1,499.9
1,513.2
1,520.3
1,532.9
1,548.9
1,568.1

1,059.5
1,063.3
1,070.6
1,080.9
1,091.0
1,096.3
1,104.1
1,115.7
1,132.6

392.9
392.9
395.0
399.2
402.5
402.6
404.7
407.8
413.4

157.8
166.1
171.2
172.9
174.4
176.9
182.3
186.2
188.0

243.4
245.0
246.2
246.1
247.8
247.1
246.5
247.1
247.5

34.51
34.60
35.05
35.19
35.22
35.31
35.32
35.25
35.28

33.50
33.64
33.42
33.74
33.67
33.87
34.47
34.34
34.51

34.03
34.15
34.57
34.69
34.77
34.81
34.81
34.72
34.72

1,009
952
1,636
1,453
1,546
1,441
844
906
774

82
99
122
171
198
190
142
121
96

1,585.2
1,604.9
1,622.1
1,630.6
1,650.8

1,144.6
1,164.4
1,181.9
1,194.3
1,213.6

418.2
423.7
433.8
437.0
447.3

188.7
188.3
187.1
185.9
187.4

252.0
252.2
253.1
250.5
249.7

35.50
36.07
36.10
36.10
36.43

34.79
35.50
35.15
34.87
33.44

34.89
35.12
35.40
35.61
35.85

715
567
952
1,234
2,988

86
103
133
139
196

1976:
1977197819791980:
19811982:
1983-

July
Amr
t~ue
Sept

Oct
Nov
Dec

1984- Jan r
Feb r.
Mar r

Z'P.
*

1
2
8

r

Data are averages of Wednesday figures.
Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States.
Data are averages of daily figures.

28



NOTE.—Beginning Dec. 1981, bank loans and investments and reserves aggregates have been
reduced because of shifts from U.S. banking offices to International Banking Facilities (IBFs).
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System.

SOURCES AND

ES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL
CORPORATE BUSINESS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Uses

Sources
External

Period

Total

Internal

Credit market funds

l

Total

1974 . ..
1975.....
1976
1977
1978
1979 ....
1980
1981
1982
1983
1982- I

190.1
156.9
210.8
254.1
317.5
345.7
333.2
365.8
308.6
434.4
302.8
329.9
327.4
274.5
340.0
457.3
430.4
509.9
517.1

,

n
in

IY
1983: I

n
m

IV
1984: Ip

85.6
119.7
134.2
157.4
175.7
188.8
189.5
230.6
240.5
282.4
233.5
240.2
244.0
244.3
250.7
270.3
294.1
314.4
316.6

104.4
37.2
76.6
96.7
141.8
156.9
143.7
135.2
68.1
152.0
69.3
89.7
83.4
30.2
89.3
187.0
136.3
195.5
200.5

Total

69.9
30.7
54.5
72.4
80.5
88.2
90.9
92.2
84.1
85.8
102.8
89.9
89.0
54.6
68.9
81.9
61.0
131.6
101.7

Securities
and
mortgages

Loans and
short-term
paper

26.3
38.7
38.2
35.8
32.8
20.9
52.4
22.5
45.2
55.3
24.8
38.6
39.6
77.8
63.4
85.8
35.8
36.2
-23.8

43.6
-8.0
16.3
36.6
47.7
67.3
38.5
69.7
38.9
30.5
78.0
51.3
49.4
-23.2
5.2
-3.9
25.2
95.4
125.5

1
Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital
consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained
abroad.
2
Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S.

Total

Other 2

34.5
6.5
22.1
24.3
61.3
68.8
52.8
43.0
-16.0
66.2
-33.4
-.2
5.6
-24.4
20.3
105.1
75.4
64.0
98.9

190.1
150.9
201.8
237.6
293.6
346.7
320.1
324.3
250.9
391.0
232.1
279.3
270.4
222.0
280.0
410.0
403.6
470.6
495.4

Capital
expenditures 3

137.9
109.7
148.3
175.1
201.6
219.4
221.2
261.6
231.2
259.7
242.4
242.2
240.1
200.2
202.4
252.9
282.6
301.1
347.5

Increase in
financial
assets

52.2
41.2
53.5
62.5
92.0
127.3
98.9
62.7
19.7
131.3
-10.3
37.1
30.3
21.8
77.6
157.1
121.0
169.5
147.9

Discrepancy
(sources less
uses)

0.0
6.0
9.0
16.5
23.8
-1.0
13.1
41.6
57.7
43.3
70.8
50.5
56.9
52.5
60.0
47.2
27.0
39.2
21.7

. 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S.
Government.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL
CORPORATIONS
[Billions of dollars, except as noted]
Current liabilities

Current assets

End of period
Total

SEC series: 2
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
QFB-FBB series: 3
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981 ...
1982
1983 p
1982: I

n
m

IV
1983: Ir
r

n ......
mr
IVP

1

Cash

U.S.
Government
securities

Notes and
accounts
receivable

3




Total

Notes and
accounts
payable

Other
current
liabilities

Net
working
capital

Current
ratio 1

492.3
529.6
599.3
697.8
790.7

50.2
53.3
59.0
66.3
71.1

7.7
11.0
10.6
12.8
12.3

206.1
221.1
248.2
288.5
322.1

193.3
200.4
225.7
263.9
313.6

35.0
43.8
55.8
66.4
71.7

304.9
326.0
375.6
450.9
530.4

211.3
220.5
282.9
340.3
402.3

93.6
105.5
92.7
110.7
128.1

187.4
203.6
223.7
246.9
260.3

1.615
1.625
.595
.548
.491

735.4
759.0
827.4
912.7
1,043.7
1,214.8
1,327.0
1,419.3
1,425.4
1,561.2
1,418.0
1,417.2
1,441.8
1,425.4
1,437.3
1,465.1
1,522.5
1,561.2

73.2
82.1
88.2
97.2
105.5
118.0
126.9
131.8
144.0
164.9
121.8
124.1
126.9
144.0
138.7
145.0
148.1
164.9

11.1
19.0
23.5
18.2
17.2
16.7
18.7
17.4
22.4
30.2
16.5
16.5
18.9
22.4
26.0
27.9
26.6
30.2

265.8
272.1
292.9
330.3
388.0
459.0
506.8
530.3
511.0
579.0
533.4
531.2
534.2
511.0
518.4
535.0
563.4
579.0

319.5
315.9
342.5
376.9
431.8
505.1
542.8
585.1
575.2
591.9
591.6
587.6
596.5
575.2
573.4
571.0
590.7
591.9

65.9
69.9
80.3
90.1
101.1
116.0
131.8
154.6
172.6
195.3
154.7
157.9
165.3
172.6
180.7
186.2
193.7
195.3

453.4
451.6
495.1
557.1
669.5
807.3
889.3
976.3
977.8
1,056.7
987.0
988.7
1,007.6
977.8
987.1
996.4
1,037.1
1,056.7

269.8
264.2
282.1
317.6
383.0
460.8
513.6
558.8
552.8
598.8
552.9
554.9
562.7
552.8
542.7
550.8
577.3
598.8

183.6
187.4
213.0
239.6
286.5
346.5
375.7
417.5
425.0
457.9
434.0
433.8
444.9
425.0
444.4
445.6
459.9
457.9

282.0
307.4
332.4
355.5
374.3
407.5
437.8
442.9
447.6
504.6
431.0
428.5
434.2
447.6
450.2
468.6
485.4
504.6

.622
.681
.671
.638
.559
1.505
1.492
1.454
1.458
1.477
1.437
1.433
1.431
1.458
1.456
1.470
1.468
1.477

Total current assets divided by total current liabilities.
Based on data from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury.
Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations, Effective mid-1982, responsibility for the Quarterly Financial Report was transferred to
the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census from the Federal Trade Commission.
2

Other
current
assets

Inventories

NOTE.—SIC series not available after 1974.
See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau
of the Census), Federal Trade Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission.

29

INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS
Interest rates rose in June.
PERCENT PER ANNUM

CORPORATE Aaa BONDS
(MOODVS)
.

X ^^

1983

1984

COUNCN. OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Percent per annum]
U.S. Treasury security yields
Constant maturities

Period

2

3-month bills *
3-year

10-year

High-grade
municipal
bonds
(Standard &
Poor's) 8

Corporate
Aaa bonds
(Moody's)

Prime
commercial
paper,
6 months *
4

Discount rate

(N.Y. F.E.
Bank)

5

8.63

1978
1979

8.29
9.72
11.55
14.44
12.92
10.45

8.41
9.44
11.46
13.91
13.00
11.10

5.90
6.39
8.51
11.23
11.57
9.47

8.73
9.63
11.94
14.17
13.79
12.04

8.82
9.12
9.39
9.05
8.71
8.71
8.96
8.93
9.03
9.44
9.69
9.90
9.94

10.32
10.90
11.30
11.07
10.87
10.96
11.13
10.93
11.05
11.59
11.98
12.75
13.16

10.85
11.38
11.85
11.65
11.54
11.69
11.83
11.67
11.84
12.32
12.63
13.41
13.55

9.51
9.46
9.72
9.57
9.64
9.79
9.90
9.61
9.63
9.92
9.98
10.55
10.71

11.74
12.15
12.51
12.37
12.25
12.41
12.57
12.20
12.08
12.57
12.81
13.28
13.53

9.03
9.36
9.68
9.28
8.98
9.09
9.50
9.18
9.31
9.86
10.22
10.87
11.22

8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
9.00-8.50
9.00-9.00

10.50-10.50
10.50-10.50
11.00-10.50
11.00-11.00
11.00-11.00
11.00-11.00
11.00-11.00
11.00-11.00
11.00-11.00
11.50-11.00
12.00-11.50

10.07
9.95
9.83
9.90
10.07
10.01
9.77

12.78
12.93
13.25
12.99
13.08
13.24

13.49
13.59
13.86
13.47
13.43
13.55

10.45
10.80
11.14
10.78
10.68
10.63
10.73

13.33
13.42
13.56
13.46
13.48
13.55

11.05
10.96
11.08
11.13
11.19
11.24

9.00-9.00
9.00-9.00
9.00-9.00
9.00-9.00
9.00-9.00
9.00-9.00

7.99
10.91
12.29
14.76
11.89
8.89

7.46
10.28
11.77
13.41
11.02
8.50
High-low

June
July
Aufir
Sept

Oct

Nov
Dec
1984- Jan
Feb....

Mar
Apr

May
June p,

New-home
mortgage
yields
(FHLBB)6

12.50-12.50
12.50-12.50
12.50-12.50
12.50-12.50
12.50-12.50
12.50-12.50

7.221
10.041
11.506
14.029
10.686

1980
1981
1982
1983

1983:

Prime rate
charged by
banks5

9.06
12.67
15.27

18.87
14.86
10.79

9.56
10.78
12.66
14.70
15.14
12.57

High-low

1250 12 00

12.36
12.50
12.38
12.54
12.25
12.34
12.42
12.29
12.23
12.02
r
12.04
12.17

Week ended:

1984: May 19
26
June 2
9........

16...
23
30..

1
Bate on new issues within period; bank-discount basis.
2
Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department.
3
Weekly data are Wednesday figures.
4
Bank-discount basis. Prior to November 1, 1979, data are for 4-6 months paper.
8
Average effective rate for year; high and low rate for month and week.

30



6
Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as
well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Bates beginning
January 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates.

Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Beserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS
Stock prices fell in June.
INDEX, DEC 311965=50
•

INDEX, DEC 3U965=50

1001

90
COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX
(NYSE)

70

60
50

40
Ljj

1976

1977

1978

1980

1979

1981

1982

1983

1

1984

PERCBMT

PERCENT
EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS
(S&P)

10

1976

1977

1978

1979

1984

SOURCES) NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION

COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Common stock yields
(percent) 5

Common stock prices *
New York Stock Exchange indexes (I)ec. 31, 1965—5O) 2

Standard &

Period
Composite

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1983" June
July
Aufir
Sept

Get
Nov
Dec
1984' Jan

Peb
Mar
Apr
Mav
June p
Week ended:
1984- May 26
June 2

9
16
23
1
2

Industrial

Transportation

Dow-Jones
industrial
Utility




average

Poor's
composite
index (194143=10)

4

Dividendprice ratio

53.70
58.32
68.10
74.02
68.93
92.63
96.43
96.74
93.96
96.70
96.78
95.36
94.92
96.16
90.60
90.66
90.67
90.07
88.28

58.23
64.76
78.70
85.44
78.18
107.45
112.52
113.21
109.50
112.76
112.87
110.77
110.65
112.16
105.44
105.92
106.56
105.94
104.03

43.50
47.34
60.61
72.61
60.41
89.36
92.22
92.91
88.06
94.56
95.41
97.68
98.79
97.98
86.33
86.10
83.61
81.62
79.30

39.22
38.20
37.35
38.91
39.75
47.00
46.76
46.61
46.94
48.16
48.73
48.50
47.00
47.43
45.67
44.83
43.86
r
44.22
43.67

56.65
61.42
64.25
73.52
71.99
95.34
101.22
99.60
95.76
97.00
94.79
94.48
94.25
95.79
89.95
89.50
88.22
85.06
80.75

820.23
844.40
891.41
932.92
884.36
1,190.34
1,221.47
1,213.93
1,189.21
1,237.04
1,252.20
1,250.01
1,257.64
1,258.89
1,164.46
1,161.97
1,152.71
1,143.42
1,120.57

96.02
103.01
118.78
128.05
119.71
160.41
166.39
166.96
162.42
167.16
167.65
165.23
164.36
166.39
157.25
157.44
157.60
156.55
153.12

5.28
5.47
5.26
5.20
5.81
4.40
4.26
4.21
4.35
4.24
4.25
4.31
4.32
4.27
4.59
4.63
4.64
4.72
4.86

87.91
86.95
89.00
87.36
88.58

103.39
102.36
104.94
102.90
104.33

78.18
78.02
80.78
77.93
79.14

43.64
43.16
43.74
43.47
43.94

81.95
79.84
81.58
79.55
81.22

1,113.25
1,108.26
1,130.80
1,104.24
1,123.08

152,92
151.11
154.62
151.36
153.63

Earningsprice ratio

4.83
4.93
4.79
4.89
4.82

Average of daily closing prices.
Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE.
30 stocks.
500 stocks.
Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-

3
Includes
4
Includes
5

Finance

3

12.03
13.46
12.66
11.96
11.60
8.04
7.49
8.01
8.52

price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.
NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

31

FEDERAL FINANCE
FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT
In the first 8 months of fiscal year 1984, there was a budget deficit of $140.2 billion, compared to a budget
deficit of $161.8 billion a year earlier.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS
900

900

800

800

. BUDGET OUTLAYS

700

700

600

600

500

500

400

400

BUDGET SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-)

o

__~-—-^^_

|—

_-—

^^^

-100

-100

^Sv\_^

-200

I
1976

I
1977

I
1978

I
1979

I
1980

I
1981

I
1982

i
1983

Ofln

i
1984

1985

FISCAL YEARS
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]

Period

Budget
receipts

Budget
outlays

Budget
surplus or
deficit (— )

Off-budget
surplus or
deficit (— )

Fiscal year or period:
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
Transition quarter
1977
1978
,
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984 (estimates)1
1985 (estimates)1

207.3
230.8
263.2
279.1
298.1
81.2
355.6
399.6
463.3
517.1
599.3
617.8
600.6
672.7
753.1

230.7
245.6
267.9
324.2
364.5
94.2
400.5
448.4
491.0
576.7
657.2
728.4
796.0
850.5
932.0

-23.4
-14.8
47
-45.2
-66.4
-13.0
-44.9
-48.8
-27.7
596
-57.9
-110.6
-195.4
-177.8
1790

-0.1
-1.4
-8.1
-7.3
-1.8
-8.7
-10.4
-12.5
-14.2
-21.0
17 3
-12.4
15 2
-14.8

Cumulative total first 8 months:
Fiscal year 1983
Fiscal year 1984

376.9
421.9

538.7
562.1

-161.8
-140.2

51
-3.3

1

Estimates from Current Budget Estimates, April 1984.

32



Total
surplus or
deficit (— )

Federal debt (end of period)
Gross

Held by the
public

73 7
-14.7
-53.6
-59.2
-40.2
-73.8
-78.9
1279
-207.8
1930
-193.8

437.3
468.4
486.2
544.1
631.9
646.4
709.1
780.4
833.8
914.3
1,003.9
1,147.0
1,381.9
1,587.8
1,827.8

323.8
343.0
346.1
396.9
480.3
498.3
551.8
610.9
644.6
715.1
794.4
929.4
1,141.8
1,317.8
1,509.8

1669
-143.5

1,296.1
1,501.7

1,068.2
1,253.0

23.4
-14.9
61
-53.2

Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND
OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
In the first 8 months of fiscal year 1984, budget receipts were $45.0 billion higher than a year earlier and budget
outlays were $23.4 billion higher.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

~~zzzz^

300

300

—
———^

200

inn

0

"~~

5

.jsB^s^ ^*^""*"""

"

\

JL, ,—•••"**

OTHER RECEIPTS

onn

—

CORPORATION INCOME TAXES
\
\

1

I

1

i

i

inn

1

1

1

0

70
0

700

BUDGET OUTLAYS

600

60
0
NONDEFENSE

V.----"

500

500

40
0

400

300

300

200

200

100

100

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1983

1982

1984

1985

FISCAL YEARS
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
Budget outlays

Budget receipts
National defense
Period
Total

Individual
income
taxes

Corporation
income
taxes

Other

Total
Total

Department of
Defense,
military

International
affairs

Social
securi-

ty and
medicare

Health

and
income
security

Net
inter-

Other

est

Fiscal year or period:

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

600.6
672.7

285.9
297.7
288.9
296.0

753.1

331.9

40.6
41.4
54.9
60.0
65.7
64.6
61.1
49.2
37.0
65.7
77.0

376.9
42.1.9

180.0
184.0

16.8
30,8

279.1
298.1
.

1984 (estimates) l
1985 (estimates)l
Cumulative total first 8 months:
Fiscal year 1983
Fiscal year 1984

355.6
399.6
463.3

517.1
599.3

617.8

122.4
131.6
157.6
181.0
217.8
244.1

116.1
125.0
143.0
158.6
179.8

324.2
364.5
400.5
448.4

208.4
252.2
270.8
274.6

576.7
657.2
728.4
796.0
850.5
932.0

311.0
344.2

180.1
207.1

1
Estimates from Current Budget Estimates, April 1984.
Note.—Starting in 1985 military retired pay will be financed from a trust fund in the income
security function. The national defense function will include accrual charges to pay for retirement
benefits earned by currently active duty personnel, and these will be offset in the undistributed offsetting receipts (employer share, employee retirement).
The Social Security Amendments of 1983 require that social security and medicare be shown in




491.0

538,7

562.1

86.5
89.6
97.2
104.5
116.3
134.0
157.5
185.3

85.9
88.1
95.3
102.3
113.7
131.0
153.8
180.7

209.9
237.6
272.0

204.4

138.1
149.9

264.4

7.1
5.7
5.0
6.1
6.3
10.9
11.3
10.1
9.0
13.1
17.6

134.5
145.6

6.1
8.5

231.0

202.5
223.3
239.6
259.6

63.0
76.5
78.3
80.0
86.8
109.6
126.1
134.5
150.8
125.6
145.4

23.2
26.7
29.9
35.4
42.6
52.5
68.7
85.0
89.8
109.5
123.0

66.9
76.2
85.7
105.7
108.4
119.1
114.9
111.0
113.2
125.1
114.4

147.1
155.7

104.3
98.2

59.9
72.2

83.2
77.6

77.5
89.7
104.4
116.6
130.6
150.6
178.7

the budget as a separate function. In previous budgets social security was in the income security
function and medicare was in the health function.
Data for all periods in this table are shown on as comparable a basis as is feasible.
Data shown here exclude the transition quarter.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

33

FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS
In the first quarter of 1984, according to revised estimates, Federal receipts rose $30.4 billion (annual rate) and
expenditures rose $11.4 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

900

900

800

800

700

700

1976

I

1977

1983

1980
CALENDAR YEARS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1984

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Federal Government receipts

Period
Total

Fiscal year:
1979
1980
1981 . ..
1982
1983
Calendar year:
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

1982:

I

n

TTT
IV

1983: I

n
m
jy

1984: I r

Personal
tax and
nontax
receipts

Corporate
profits
tax
accruals

Indirect
business
tax and
nontax
accruals

Federal Government expenditures

Contributions for
social
insurance

Total




Transfer
payments

Net
interest
paid

Subsidies
less
current
surplus of
Government
enterprises

Less:
Wage
accruals
less
disbursements

Surplus
or deficit
(-),
national
income
and
product
accounts

480.8
525.9
610.3
627.8
630.7

222.6
250.4
289.3
310.4
295.3

76.1
69.9
70.5
51.3
54.3

29.1
35.5
53.6
50.3
50.7

153.1
170.0
196.9
215.7
230.4

495.6
576.5
668.1
740.0
816.4

164.1
189.3
218.5
251.0
274.7

201.8
239.4
279.3
310.2
344.7

79.1
86.7
90.1
83.4
85.7

40.6
50.7
67.7
82.2
90.6

9.9
10.4
12.5
13.2
20.3

-0.0
.0
.1
-.0
-.4

-14.8
-50.7
-57.8
112 2
-185.7

493.6
540.9
627.0
617.4
644.7

230.6
257.7
298.6
304.7
295.9

509.7
602.1
689.2
764.4
826.3
728.0
735.4
773.5
820.9
806.6
818.7
832.5
847.3

80.5
88.7
87.9
83.9
86.5

-.0
.0
.1

249.7
244.1
261.7
279.2

302.5
311.2
325.9
344.8

82.5
85.1
83.0
85.0

273.5
273.7
278.1
274.1

340.3
347.0
343.5
350.9

85.8
86.7
87.2
86.4

42.4
53.4
73.2
84.9
96.5
79.7
82.3
88.6
89.1
88.4
91.8
101.0
104.6

9.2
11.5
12.4
15.8
22.6

297.7
304.2
286.9
295,0

159.5
173.9
204.5
217.9
234.4
215.8
217.6
218.9
219.3
228.5
232.6
236.2
240.3

209.2
251.5
286.6
321.1
345.4

306.5
308.5
300.6
303.0

29.4
39.0
56.4
48.3
54.0
49.5
47.7
47.9
48.3
48.6
56.0
55.5
55.8

168.3
197.0
229.2
258.7
274.8

619.5
622.2
615.2
612.6
623.3
652.6
645.2
657.5

74.2
70.3
67.5
46.5
60.3
47.6
48.4
47.8
42.1
48.6
59.8
66.6
66.4

18.6
18.2
22.3
31.3

-.4
-.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
-1.3
-.4
.0

16 1
-61.2
-62.2
-147.1
-181.6
-108.5
113 2
-158.3
208 2
1833
-166.1
-187.3
-189.8

687.9

302.5

72.5

56.0

256.9

858.7

271.9

349.7

90.4

108.0

38.9

.2

-170.7

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury,
and Office of Management and Budget.

34

Purchases
of goods
and
services

Grantsin-aid to
State
and
local
governments

13.4
12.7
14.2
22.8

o

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
[1967 = 100]
Industrial production (seasonally adjusted)

Period

United
States

1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 p

France

Italy

Germany

United
States *

Canada

Japan

France

Germany

Italy

United
Kingdom

138.2
146.1
152.5
147.0
151.0
138.6
147.6

July
. J

Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

1984: Jan
Feb

152.7
157.8
167.6
165.1
166.6
148.8
157.6

189.7
201.1
215.3
225.2
227.5
228.4
236.5

152
155
163
161
160
158
159

152.0
154.1
161.5
162.0
159.1
154.5
155.5

145.1
147.9
157.6
166.5
162.7
159.1
150.7

124.2
127.8
132.9
124.1
119.5
121.6
125.1

181.5
195.4
217.4
246.8
272.4
289.1
298.4

185.9
202.5
221.0
243.5
273.9
303.5
321.0

243.0
252.3
261.3
282.3
296.2
304.1
309.7

214.5
233.9
259.1
294.2
332.7
373.1
407.9

155.9
160.2
166.8
175.9
186.3
196.2
202.1

255.2
286.2
328.5
398.0
472.4
549.4
631.8

144.4
146.4
149.7
151.8
153.8
155.0
155.3
156.2

1983- May
June

153.5
157.1
157.8
160.8
163.8
164.4
165.9
r
167.1

231.1
233.3
234.0
241.2
244.8
241 .4
246.4
248.2

160
157
160
160
157
155
161
160

153.7
159.2
154.5
155.2
157.1
157.5
160.2
161.0

148.5
145.1
146.9
134.9
151.1
148.6
152.8
146.0

124.2
122.3
125.7
125.7
126.4
126.8
127.2
129.0

297.1
298.1
299.3
300.3
301.8
302.6
303.1
303.5

317.9
321.5
322.9
324.5
324.5
326.5
326.5
327.5

312.0
309.7
308.3
307.4
311.4
314.2
312.2
311.4

404.5
406.9
410.4
412.8
416.0
419.2
420.9
422.4

201.1
201.8
202.6
203.2
203.6
203.6
204.1
204.5

628.2
632.2
638.5
641.1
649.4
660.4
667.0
670.3

292.4
316.6
359.0
423.6
473.9
514.7
538.3
536.4
537.7
540.6
543.0
545.4
547.3
549.2
550.7

250.2
257.0
254.1
257.9

161
159
162
157

129.7
127.4
125.7

305.2
306.6
307.3
308.8
309.7

329.2 312.3
331.1 314.2
331.9 r315.1
332.7 315.9
333.3

425.4
428.0
431.0
433.6

205.6
206.2
206.3
206.8

678.3
685.8
690.6
695.4
699.6

550.4
552.6
554.4
561.8
563.9

158.5
160.0
r
160.8
r
162.5
163 2
r

Mar
Apr*
Mav p
1

Japan

Canada

Consumer prices (unadjusted)
United
Kingdom

r

!71.0
165.2
165.5

r

r

161.0
164.4
158.9
159.6

Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers.

r

Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, Office of Trade Information and Analysis, Trade Performance Division, in International
Economic Indicators.

U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Merchandise imports

Merchandise exports *
Period

Total
domestic
and
foreign
exports

Total2

Food,
beverages, and
tobacco

Crude
materials and
fuels

Merchandise trade balance

General imports 3

Domestic exports
Manufactured
goods

Total2

Exports
(f.a.8.)
less
imports
(customs
value)

Exports
(f.a.8.)
less
imports
(f.a.s.)

Exports
(f.a.s.)
less
imports
(c.Lf.)

762
-688
-2,430
-2,590
-2,300
-2,020

148
-1,440
-3,265
3530
-3,364
3,030

Food,
beverages, and
tobacco

Crude
materials and
fuels

Manufactured
goods

Total
(c.i.f.
value)

827
991
1,186
1,312
1,478
1,546

2,716
3,457
4,463
4,325
5,949
7,831

4,257
5,398
6,379
8,360
9,352
10,427

8,823
11,042
13,368
15,504
18,519
21,415

7,739
6,200
5,670

11,873
12,002
13,621

22,779 -2,275
21,240 -2,647
22,490 -4,797

-3,306
-3,558
-5,783

4,517
5,829
5,567
6,011
6,581
6,465
6,855
5,891
5,360
6,063
6,039
6,308
6,636

13,012
13,239
13,101
13,796
13,912
13,754
15,107
15,124
15,478

20,821
22,406
21,852
22,858
23,746
23,477
25,465
24,185
24,033

-3,819
-5,791
-3,957
-5,341
-6,132
-5,195
-7,300
-6,052
-5,678

-4,726
-6,751
-4,893
-6,371
-7,164
-6,221
8432
-7,122
-6,735

17,948
17,652
17,827
18,766

27,794
27,305
27,992
29,711
26,789

-8,260
-8,935
-9,044
-10,847

-9,468
-10,092
-10,264
-12,190
-8,839

F.a.s. value
Monthly average:
1975*
1976*
1977*
1978*
1979*
1980

8,971
9,602
10,103
11,973
15,155
18,386

8,847
9,462
9,919
11,762
14,886
18,043

1,399
1,436
1,330
1,717
2,049
2,534

1,266
1,341
1,548
1,746
2,352
2,810

5,913
6,437
6,679
7,873
9,716
11,991

8,209
10,290
12,533
14,563
17,455
20,406

1981
1982
1983

19,473
17,683
16,707

19,075
17,256
16,326

2,767
2,248
2,248

2,752
2,793
2,463

12,857
11,643
11,034

21,748
20,329
21,504

1983: Apr
May
June

16,095
15,655
16,959
16,486
16,582
17,257
17,033
17,063
17,298

15,743
15,275
16,602
16,158
16,195
16,892
16,580
16,664
16,895

2,079
2,003
2,142
2,063
2,046
2,314
2,452
2,605
2,449

2,483
2,332
2,425
2,388
2,745
2,691
2,345
2,270
2,532

10,632
10,375
11,515
11,028
10,882
11,147
11,241
11,277
11,407

19,914
21,446
20,916
21,828
22,714
22,451
24,333
23,115
22,976

18,326
17,213
17,727
17,522
17,950

17,847
16,787
17,212
17,072
17,464

2,402
2,103
2,457
2,184
2,162

2,664
2,532
2,791
2,523
2,833

12,097
11,372
11,147
11,560
11,628

26,586
26,147
26,771
28,368

Customs value

y
July
Aiinp

i

Sent

Oct
Nov

Dec
1984- Jan
Feb

Mar
Apr
May

1
Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginning
January 1978.
2
Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.
3
Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.
NOTE.—Imports on c.i.f. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods.




1,529
1,485
1,568
1,593
1,712
1,490
1,486
1,480
1,466
1,747
1,565
1,591
1,759
1,773
1,865
2,028

Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Islands exports are reflected in the figures for domestic and foreign exports combined and trade balance.
'Data for 1975-79 for domestic and foreign exports combined, total general imports, and trade
balance include trade of the Virgin Islands.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

35

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
In the first quarter, the current account deficit increased to a record $19.4 billion, from $17.2 billion in the fourth
quarter of 1983. The increase in the deficit was more than accounted for by a rise in the merchandise trade deficit
to $25.6 billion, from $19.4 billion in the fourth quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*
iri

10

BALANCE ON GOODS
AND SERVICES
.^Xvi

-.A

A

>y^\

0
%

\

X

c

r\

_/v

^——•
N

^\

—>\
\\

ss

sS

__ssr
/

A

f

**S

[AsV'yv ^
/
N/
V, ^J
f \

M

/

i

BALANCE ON
CURRENT ACCOUNT
/ /x ^ *•%
\

» VU •
» a
.
/

\

-10

^lL

± /

/

x

t~*

x

****~~"
f

0

\«

\\
,4
\t%_ /

^^^ i

+''**

\
l

*«

\\
f\ V

-10

\ \\

\S
MERC HANDISE TRAC E
BALANCE

15

5

v\

\»

^

\

\\
1 *5

x

\\ %VV
>
%

-20

N

20

\
\
\
\

%

25

-30

1

1 1

1

1

\ 1 1

1

1977

1976

1978

i

1 I

i

1979

1

I

1

i i i

I I !

I l l

1982

1 I
1981

1980

— 75

1983

1984

-^n

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits (—)]
Merchandise 1 ' i

In vestment ineonae 8
Net

Period
Exports

Imports

Net
balance

Receipts

Payments

107 088
114 745
120,816
142 054
184,473
224 269
237,085
211 198
200,257

—98 185
— 124 228
— 151,907
176 020
— 212,028
— 249 781
— 265,086
— 247 667
— 261,312

8903
— 9483
— 31,091
— 33966
— 27,555
— 25,512
— 28,001
— 36469
— 61,055

25 351
29 286
32,179
42 245
64,132
72506
86,411
83862
77,003

12 564
— 13 311
— 14,217
— 21 680
— 32,914

1982: I rr

55,482
55 118
52,079
48519

— 62,546
60921
-64,442
—59 758

— 7,064
5 803
-12,363
— 11 239

1983- I rr

49 246
48,745
50,437
51,829

—58 523
—63,615
-67,938
— 71,236

1975
1976
1977

1978
1979
1980 r
1981 r.
1982 r
1983 r.

nr
mr
IY
n .r
nir
rv .

1984: Ip.

r

54, 164

1
Excludes military grants.
2
Adjusted from Census data
3

r

— 79,805




Other
services,
net 8

Balance
on goods
and
services 1

Remittances,
pensions,
and other
unilateral
transfers 1

Balance
on
current
account

1,528
621
— 1,778
— 2,237
-1,115
195
515

— 2 792
— 2558
— 3,565
— 3,573
-2,935
— 997
144
— 1,008
-4,584

20,889
22 307
21,505
19 162

— 13,653
14 772
-14,390
13 243

7,236
7 535
7415
5 919

52
239
-2
—94

— 114
— 247
-99
— 548

9 277
— 14,870
-17,501
— 19,407
r

—42 063
—52,359
— 56059
—53,495

12 787
15975
17,962
20565
31,218
30443
34,052
27 803
23,508

17 618
18,973
20,802
19,609

— 12 380
— 12,995
-13,630
— 14,490

5 238
5,978
7,172
5,119

790
53
-55
-273

— 263
— 1,131
-1,426
-1,764

2 142 — 1 370
2,258 -7,712
2,107 -9,703
2,198 -14,127

— 1 573 — 2 943
-1,848 -9,560
-2,143 -11,846
-3,086 — 17,213

— 25,641

22,791

— 15,172

7,619

-284

-1,299

2,349 -17,256

-2,152 -19,408

for differences in timing and coverage.
Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the
United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net.

36

Net

military
transactions

Net
travel and
transportation
receipts

— 746

559

22 749
4598
4,711
9205
5,272 — 9,894
6,013 — 10,340
5,735
4,686
8,975
7,277
8,048
13,128
8,339 — 1,141
8,704 — 32,912

2,160
2005
2,118
2 054

2,270
3 729
-3,231
— 3 908

Note.—Data revised beginning 1980.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

18 136
—4613
4207
4998
—4,617 — 14,511
—5 106 — 15446
—964
— 5,649
— 7077
1 898
6,294
— 6,833
— 8058 —9 199
— 8,651 —41,563

— 2,105
— 1 802
-1,745
— 2406

165
1 927
-4,976
— 6314

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $0.3 billion in the first quarter
compared with an $8.2 billion increase in the fourth quarter of 1983. Liabilities to foreigners and international
financial institutions reported by U.S. banks (including U.S. Treasury securities) increased $11.3 billion compared
with a $24.0 billion increase in the fourth quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*
CHANGE IN
FOREIGN ASSETS
IN THE U.S.,NET

-20

-20

CHANGE IN
U.S. ASSETS
ABROAD, NET

-40

-40

-60

-60
1984

1976
•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Foreign assets in the U.S., net
[increase /capital inflow (+)] 2

U.S. assets abroad, net
[increase /capital outflow (— )]
Period
Total

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1982:

r
r

r

1984: Ip

Foreign
official
assets

Other
foreign
assets

(SDBs)

5,897
10,544
-2,023
12,540
25,404
24,982
22,275
32,916
9,331

16,226
18,747
19,312
18,650
18,956
26,756
30,074
33,958
33,747

7,027
17,693
36,816
33,678
-13,665
15,497
5,003
3,318
5,339

8,643
18,826
14,503
30,358
52,416
42,589
76,310
91,863
76,383

1 089
-1,132
794
-1,950

-803
-1,700
-2,555
-1,086

-30,068
-38,577
-22,867
-16,279

28,344
33,772
18,384
14,680

-3,221
1,399
2,477
2,664

31,565
32,373
15,907
12,017

3,450
5,710
12,808
10,947

-964
487
-2,276
2,752

29,944
30,671
30,993
33,958

-24,364
-1,060
-9,223
-14,843

-787
16
529
-953

-1,130
-1,251
-1,204
-1,429

—22,447
175
-8,548
-12,461

15,888
12,452
19,578
33,804

-252
1,739
-2,703
6,555

16,139
10,714
22,281
27,249

11,420
-1,833
1,491
-1,748

-579
439
-2,518
2,657

34,261
33,876
33,066
33,747

-5,927

657

-1,989

-3,281

11,803

-2,859

14,662

13,532

-172

34,978

-31,960
-41,409
Mr ... -26,216
IV .... -19,314

IV ....

Total

U.S. official
reserve
assets, net *
(unadjusted,
end of
period)

15,670
36,518
51,319
64,036
38,752
58,086
81,313
95,181
81,722

lr

n .....
rarr...

U.S.
private
assets

Of which:
Seasonal
adjustment
discrepancy

-3,474 -35,380
-4,214 -44,498
-3,693 -30,717
-4,660 -57,202
-3,746 -59,453
-72,802
-5,162
-5,107 -100,694
107 790
-6,143
-5,013 -43,281

n r.....
r

1983: I rr

Other U.S.
Government
assets

Total (sum
of the items
with sign
reversed)

-849
-2,558
-375
732
-1,133
-8,155
-5,175
-4,965
-1,196

-39,703
-51,269
-34,785
-61,130
-64,331
-86,118
-110,976
-118,898
-49,490

r

U.S.
official
reserve
assets * 2

Statistical discrepancy
Allocations
of special
drawing

1

Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDBs), convertible currencies, and tihe U.S. reserve
position in the IMP.
2
Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.




1,139
1,152
1,093

Note.—Data revised beginning 1980.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the
Treasury.

37

Contents
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
Gross National Product
Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product
Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures
Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits
National Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures......
Sources of Personal Income
Disposition of Personal Income
Farm Income
Corporate Profits
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment

Page

1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

,
,

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
Status of the Labor Force
Selected Unemployment Rates
Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector

..

11
12
13
14
15
15
16

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures
New Construction
New Private Housing and yacancy Rates
Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

17
18
19
19
20
21

PRICES
Producer Prices
Consumer Prices
Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods
Changes in Consumer Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers...

22
23
24
24
25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures
Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets
Consumer Installment Credit
Bank Loans and Investments, and Reserves
Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business
Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations
Interest Rates and Bond Yields
Common Stock Prices and Yields

26
27
27
28
29
29
30
31

FEDERAL FINANCE
Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt
Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function
Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis

32
33
34

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries
U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports
U.S. International Transactions

35
35
36

General Notes
Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.
Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.
Symbols used:
p
Preliminary.
r
Revised.
c
Corrected.
... Not available (also, not applicable).
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38




U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1984 0—36-097


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