Full text of Economic Indicators : June 1950
The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
'"• •' ' : '/ ^ '» il " ,r-. ,: Economic Indicators JUNE 1950 Prepared for the joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1950 JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT (Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304$ 79th Cong.) C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, Chairman EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Vm Chairman FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania JOHN J. SPARKMAN, Alabama PAUL H. DOUGLAS, ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas WALTER B. Ohio BUCHANAN, Pennsylvania P. WOLCOTT, Michigan ROBERT F. RICH Pennsylvania A. HERTER, Massachusetts THEODOEE J. KBEPS, Staff Director GROVES. W. ENSLEY, Associate Staff Director JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS (Created pursuant to Sec, 4 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) LEON H. KEYSERLING, Chairman JOHN D. CLARK, Vies Chairman ROY BLOUGH , - [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] |S. J. Ees. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators'* TLesolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Committee on the Economic Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators/' and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Committee on the Economic Report; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Graphics Unit, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce 11 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY The Nation's Economic Budget Gross National Product 1 2 Consumers' Prices Wholesale Prices. Prices Received and Paid by Farmers. . . Stock Prices 3 4 5 6 Labor Force Nonagricultural Employment—Selected Industries Average Weekly Hours—Selected Industries. Work Stoppages 7 8 9 10 ACTIVITY Industrial Production Weekly Production—Selected Indicators Production of Selected Manufactures New Construction New Housing Starts Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment New Corporate Security Issues Inventories and Sales Merchandise Exports and Imports National Income Corporate Profits Personal Income Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving Personal Consumption Expenditures Per Capita Income Average Hourly Earnings—Selected Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries Farm Income Consumer Credit MONEY; BANKING, •, 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 FEDERAL Bank Loans and Investments Money Supply Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public .. 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 30 31 32 iii THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET The Nation's Economic Budget total in 1st quarter of I960 was about 3 percent above 4th quarter of 1949, according to revised estimates. The payment of the National Service Life Insurance dividend to veterans resulted in a sharp rise in consumer disposable income 1949, TOTAL 4th (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)1 Quarter EXCESS OF EXPENDITURES H, RECEIPTS W (Gross National Product) - CONSUMERS icpME';i;iij;!li|i;i|:;j;:^ 0 -:=££: =jj SAVING BUSINESS INTERNATIONAL EXCESS OF I RECEIPTS GOVERNMENT (Federal, state, and local) I960, 1st Quarter (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)-^ TOTAL (Gross National Product) CONSUMERS .....,,..,,, cpN!HjljJjlji!|:jjj:|ji;jii!:l!l|^ I N C 0 M E:;::j;::j::;;;£;;:i;|:!:j:!:|:!^ •:-*::::-:::;:;:3 :-:,:::-:-:-:-:Vd 201.3 SUMER SAVING BUSINESS EXCESS OP INVESTMENT INTERNATIONAL EXCESS OF RECEIPTS GOVERNMENT (Federal, state and local) CASH DEFICIT SOURCE: SEE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JANUARY 1950, APPENDIX A COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC 4DV1SERS GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT Total gross national product rose $7.2 billion (annual rate) in 1st quarter of 1950. Personal consumption expenditures were $2.9 billion higher. Private investment increased $7.4 billion due to the peak rate of residential construction and a shift from inventory liquidation to accumulation. Government purchases and net foreign investment decreased moderately. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS . ^BILLIONS Of DOLLARS ANNUAL TOTALS ANNUAL RATES,SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NATIONAL PRODUCT AL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES R1VATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 50 \E -50 I I I I I I I I EIGN INVESTMENT J 1 46 1948 SOURCE: I 48 1949 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars] Total gross national product Period 1939 1944 1946 1947 1948-.1949. ... . ... - 91.3 213. 7 212.6 235.7 262.4 257.8 Personal private Net foreign consump- Gross domestic tion expen- investment investment ditures 67.5 111. 6 147.8 166.9 178.8 179.4 9.9 7.7 29.5 31. 1 45.0 34.7 0.9 •-2. 1 4.7 8. 9 1.9 .4 Government purchases of goods and services 13. 1 96.5 30. 7 28.8 36.7 43.4 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1948: Third quarter Fourth quarter _ ._ 1949: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter _ Fourth quarter. 1950: First quarter „. 266. 5 270.3 180.3 180.9 ,47. 1 48.0 -0. 1 39.2 40. 3 262.0 257.9 254. 6 256. 7 178.7 179.3 179.7 179.8 40. 0 33. 2 32. 1 33.7 1.0 1. 2 -'.5 42. 3 44.2 43.2 43.7 263.9 182.7 41. 1 -2. 1 42. 2 NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. i. a Q Source: Department of Commerce. PRICES CONSUMERS' PRICES Consumers' prices recorded a further slight advance in April. There were small increases in all major groups except miscellaneous goods and services, which showed a small decrease. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE 220 1939 40 41 42 43 44 PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE 22O 45 46 47 48 49 rr. . . . i . F M A M J <l A S 0 N 0 J 1948 SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF M A M J J A S 0 N 0 J F M A M J 1949 J A S 0 N D i960 LABOR [1935-39=100] Period 1940 monthly average 1941 monthly average.— 1942 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1949: March 15 „ April 15_. May 15__ June 15 July 15 August 15 September 15 ._ October 15 November 15 _ _ December 15 1950: January 15 February 15 March 15 April 15 AD items 100. 2 105. 2 116.5 123. 6 125.5 128.4 139. 3 159.2 171. 2 169. 1 169.5 169. 7 169. 2 169. 6 168. 5 168. 8 169. 6 168. 5 168. 6 167. 5 166.9 166. 5 167.0 167. 3 Food - 96.6 105.5 123. 9 138. 0 136. 1 139. 1 159.6 193. 8 210. 2 201. 9 201. 6 202.8 202. 4 204.3 201. 7 202. 6 204. 2 200. 6 200.8 197.3 196. 0 194.8 196.0 196. 6 Apparel 101. 7 106.3 124. 2 129. 7 138.8 145. 9 160. 2 185.8 198. 0 190. 1 193. 9 192. 5 191. 3 190. 3 188.5 187. 4 187. 2 186.8 186.3 185.8 185.0 184. 8 185.0 185. 1 NOTE. —Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities. Rent 104. 6 106. 2 108, 5 108.0 108. 2 108. 3 ioa 6 111. 2 117.4 120.8 120. 1 120.3 120. 4 120. 6 120.7 120. 8 121.2 121. 5 122. 0 122. 2 122. 6 122.8 122. 9 123. 1 Fuel, electricity, and refrigeration 99.7 102. 2 105.4 107.7 109. 8 110. 3 112. 4 121. 1 133.9 137.5 138. 9 137. 4 135. 4 135.6 135. 6 135.8 137.0 138. 4 139. 1 139. 7 140.0 140.3 140.9 141.4 House furnishings 100.5 107. 3 122.2 125. 6136. 4 145.8 159. 2 184. 4 195.8 189. 0 193.8 191. 9 189. 5 187. 3 186.8 184.8 185. 6 185.2 185. 4 185.4 184.7 185.3 185. 4 185.6 Miscellaneous 101. 1 104. 0 110. 9 115.8 121. 3 124. 1 128. 8 139. 9 149. 9 154. 6 154.4 154. 6 154.5 154. 2 154. 3 154.8 155. 2 155. 2 154. 9 155. 5 155. 1 155.1 155. 0 154.8 Source: Department of Labor. WHOLESALE PRICES Wholesale prices of farm products and foods increased sharply during May; industrial prices advanced steadily. PERCENT OF 1926 PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE AVERAGE 220 200 > In i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i f i i i i i I M i i t I i M i rh 1 i i i I t i .11 t I i i 1 1 1 1 i i i i t I i i n i LATEST DATA PLOTTED ; SOURCE: MONTHLY - MAY WEEKLY -MAY30 DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. COONCIt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1926=100] 1942 monthly average 1946 monthly average June 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1949: April May June July. August September October November December 1950: January February March fc April1 _ May Week ended: 1950: May 2 • . ... . ' .. „_. ._ _ _ _ 9 16_ 23 30 1 Estimate based on change in weekly data. 4 98. 8 121. 1 112. 9 152. 1 165. 1 155.0 156. 9 155. 7 154. 5 153.5 152. 9 153.6 152. 2 151.6 151.2 151. 5 152. 7 152.7 152. 9 156. 1 105. 9 148. 9 140. 1 181. 2 188. 3 165. 6 170. 5 171. 2 168. 8 166.2 162. 3 163. 1 159. 6 156.8 154.9 154. 7 159. 1 159.4 159. 3 165.5 99. 6 130. 7 112. 9 168. 7 179. 1 161. 6 162. 9 163.8 ,162. 4 161. 3 160. 6 162.0 159. 6 158.9 155.8 154.8 156. 7 155. 5 155. 3 159. 3 Other than farm products and foods 95. 5 109.5 105.6 135. 2 151.0 147. 3 148.9 146.8 145.6 145.0 145.0 145.3 145. 0 144.9 145.5 145. 8 145. 9 146.1 146. 4 147.7 154. 155. 155. 156. 156. 162. 7 162. 9 164. 7 165. 3 167. 5 159. 0 158. 7 160. 5 160.7 161.5 146.7 147. 2 147.5 147. 6 147.6 All commodities Period 5 1 9 1 8 Farm products Foods Source: Department of Labor. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers rose 2 percent from April 15 to May 15, due to a sharp rise in hog prices, together with price increases for other meat animals, cotton, wool, soybeans, and corn. Prices paid rose 1 percent. As a result, the parity ratio was 1 percent higher. PERC ENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE 350 MONTHLY AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVE RAGE 350 PRICES RECEIVED ^i^ % 3.00 s\ 'S^ // 250 200 100 ^•^ —•— PPRICES PAID 300 3 AND WAGE RATES) iiffr-**1 ^^3 250 ' 200 f^ -/^_—^ 150 1 150 N»*-+*-»-*»-«c ~x^ —' 7 •*• 100 *»*« • ••* PARITY RATIO* 50 50 1 0 1939 40 1 41 1 1 I 1 1 42 43 44 45 46 1 I 47 48 i i i i i 1 i i i i i 1 1948 iIf 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 49 1949 I960 RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, T, [1910-14=100] Prices paid by farmers (includPrices received ing interest, Parity ratio * Period taxes, and by farmers wage rates) 77 95 123 1939 monthly average 104 152 158 1942 monthly average 2 108 182 196 1944 monthly average 2 109 206 189 1945 monthly average » „. 2 207 113 234 1946 monthly average 115 240 275 1947 monthly average 110 285 259 1948 monthly average 100 250 249 1949 monthly average. 101 254 1949: April 15 _ 256 100 253 253 May 15 ___-_ 99 252 249 June 15 . 98 250 . 246 July 15 . 98 244 249 August 15 100 248 . 247 September 15 * 98 242 246 October 15 _. . __ 97 237 245 November 15 .. _> 95 246 233 December 15__ 94 249 1950: January 1 5 _ _ 235 96 248 237 February 15 .-.. .. 95 250 March 15 , 237 96 251 241 April 15 _ — .._-_ . 97 254 247 Mav 15 1 Ratio of index of prices received to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates, 2 Includes wartime subsidy payments paid on beef* cattle, sheep, lambs, milk, and butterfat between October 1943 and June 1946. Source: .Department of Agriculture. 67616—50 1 0 1 STOCK PRICES Stock prices advanced further in May and were at the highest level since August 1946. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVE RAGE 175 PERC ENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE 1 its WEEKLY AVERAGE WEEKLY AVERAGE & ^ «./ 150 INDUSTRIALS /A— 125 ,& //^A 100 *^/**NRAlLROADS | p 125 100 V " 75 COMPOSITE INDEX ISO *"* UTILITIES 1 *""' v/ 75 V 50 50 .1 19X9 i i 40 i i 41 42 43 i i i i 44 45 47 48 49 46 i i I I I I I || | || | 1948 ' II I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I 1949 SOURCE: STANDARD AND POOR'S CORPORATION 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1950 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1935-39=100] Composite index l Period Weekly average: 1939 1942 1946 1948 1949 1949: April May i»J.C*J _ _ June July _ August * ' _ September October November _ December _ _ __ 1950: January "February __ March April ' _ Mav Week end ed: 1950: May 3 __ 10 17 ' __ _-- _ -__ • 31 • 24 Industrials Railroads Utilities 94.2 69.4 139. 9 124.4 121. 3 118. 5 117. 7 112.0 117.8 121. 8 123.8 127. 3 129. 1 132.7 135. 1 136. 7 138-8 141. 6 146.9 94.8 71.3 143.4 130. 6 127. 5 124. 2 123.5 117. 0 123. 8 128.0 130. 3 134.4 136. 5 140.3 142. 6 144. 4 146. 5 150. 0 156. 1 74.7 66. 1 143.0 114. 7 96.4 97. 1 95. 8 88.4 90. 6 94.2 95. 1 97. 6 96.2 101. 0 107.8 107. 2 108. 5 109.4 109.7 98.6 61. 3 120.2 96.2 97.5 96. 1 95.3 9,3.0 95. 4 98. 5 100.0 101. 2 102.6 104. 1 105.8 107.4 109. 6 111. 1 112.8 144. 7 145. 3 147. 1 148. 4 148.8 153.4 154. 3 156. 3 157. 9 158. 4 110. 3 109. 3 109. 9 110.0 109. 2 111.9 112. 1 113. 1 113.7 113. 4 i Composite index prior to June 23,1948, was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials, 20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads, and 31 utilities. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation. Civilian employment again increased significantly. Unemployment declined by more than 500,000. During the past three months there was a decrease of over 1.6 million in the number of jobless persons. MILLIONS OF PERSONS 70 MILLIONS OF PERSONS 1 70 UNEMPLOYMENT TMCNAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT - 1 ' ' ""' PERCENT 20 I I M C M D I nVflflCMT - D f D ^ C M T AT 15 - 10 - 5 ~ - pi - I—TO • 111 ill| plf 0 1944 1947 1948 MONTHLY AVERAGE 1949 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Total labor force (including armed forces) Period 1939 monthly 1944 monthly 1947 monthly 1948 monthly 1949 monthly 1949: April average average average average average Mav T J June _ _ July August September October November December 1950: January February March April _ _ May _ _ __ _ _ 55, 600 65, 890 61, 608 62, 748 63, 571 62, 327 63, 452 64, 866 65, 278 65, 105 64, 222 64, 021 64, 363 63, 475 62, 835 63, 003 63, 021 63, 513 64, 108 Civilian labor force Total Employment 1 civilian Agricul- Nonagrilabor Total tural cultural force Thousands of persons, 14 years of age and over 370 36, 140 45, 750 9, 610 55, 230 54, 630 11,260 53, 960 8, 950 45, 010 8,266 1,440 49, 761 60, 168 58, 027 1, 307 7,973 59, 378 61, 442 51, 405 1,466 8,026 62, 105 50, 684 58, 710 1,492 57, 819 60, 835 49, 999 7, 820 8, 974 58, 694 1,469 49, 720 61, 983 9,696 59, 619 63, 398 1,468 49, 924 1,463 59, 720 9,647 63, 815 50, 073 1,468 51, 441 8, 507 63, 637 59, 947 59,411 62, 763 1,459 8, 158 51, 254 62, 576 1,445 59, 001 7, 710 51, 290 1,436 7,878 62, 927 59, 518 51, 640 58, 556 1,430 62, 045 6,773 51, 783 1,408 6, 198 56, 947 50, 749 61, 427 56, 953 1, 366 6,223 50, 730 61, 637 1,346 6, 675 57, 551 50, 877 61, 675 58, 668 7, 195 62, 183 1,330 51, 473 8, 062 1, 320 62, 788 51, 669 59, 731 Armed forces Unemployment 9,480 670 2, 142 2,064 3,395 3,016 3,289 3, 778 4,095 3,689 3,351 3, 576 3,409 3,489 4,480 4,684 4, 123 3,515 3,057 Unemployment as percent of total civilian labor force 17.2 1. 2 3.6 3.4 5. 5 5.0 5.3 6.0 6.4 5. 8 5.3 5.7 5.4 5.6 7. 3 7.6 6.7 5.7 4.9 i Includes part-time workers and those who had jobs but were not at work for such reasons as vacation, illness, bad weather, temporary lay-off, and industrial disputes. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT - SELECTED INDUSTRIES Employment in most industrial and commercial industries and in Goverment substantial gains in April. The increase in durable manufacturing was almost entirely offset by a decline in nondurables which seasonal. Construction reached an all-time April high. Government increased because of hiring of temporary Census takers. MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS 9.0 MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS 8.0 DURABLE MANUFACTURING I 4 F 1 M t A NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING 1 M I J J I 1 A S I O ! _l I N D J F M I A I M I J J I A I f I S O N O S O N 0 CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION J f M A M SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LA 80S COUNCII. OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers l] Manufacturing Period Total 1939 monthly 1943 monthly 1946 monthly 1947 monthly 1948 monthly 1949 monthly 1949: March April average average average average average average May June , July August September October November December 1 950 * January 3 February March 8 April 3 , 10, 078 17, 381 14, 461 15, 247 15, 286 14, 146 14, 475 14, 177 13, 877 13, 884 13, 757 14, 114 14, 312 13, 892 13, 807 14, 031 13, 980 13, 996 14, 094 14, 113 Durable goods (22) (2) () 8,373 8,315 7,465 7,819 7,656 7, 441 7?392 7,255 7,302 7,409 6,986 7,050 7,303 7,342 7,325 7,418 7,535 Contract construction Nondurable goods 1, 150 (22) 1,567 (2) 1, 661 () 6,874 1,982 6, 970 2, 165 6,681 2, 156 6,656 1,947 6,521 2,036 6,436 2,137 6,492 2,205 6,502 2,277 6,812 2,340 6,903 2,341 6,906 2,313 6,757 2,244 6,728 2,088 6,638 1, 919 6,671 1,860 6,676 1,898 2,042 6,578 Trade 6,705 7,322 8,815 9, 196 9,491 9,438 9,310 9,478 9,342 9,336 9,220 9,213 9,409 9,505 9,607 10, 156 9,246 9,154 9,201 9,316 Finance and service 4,610 5, 187 5, 994 6,427 6,515 6,544 6,469 6, 525 6,567 6,608 6,631 6,616 6, 604 6,561 6,534 6,508 6,473 6,473 6,498 6,556 Government (Federal, State, local) 3,987 6, 049 5, 607 5,454 5, 613 5,811 5,761 5,775 5,813 5,803 5,738 5,763 5, 893 5,866 5,783 6,041 5,777 5,742 5,769 5,902 Transportation and public utilities 2,912 3,619 4,023 4, 122 4,151 3,979 3, 975 3,991 4,021 4,031 4,007 3,992 3,959 3,871 3, 892 3,930 3, 869 3,841 3,873 3, 930 Mining 845 917 852 943 981 932 981 984 974 968 943 956 948 593 917 940 861 601 930 935 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 6) which include proprietors, selfemployed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are3 based on reports from employing establishments. 2 Not available. Preliminary estimate. Source: Department of Labor. 8 AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES The workweek in durable manufacturing industries increased sharply in April. In contrast, weekly hours in nondurable goods manufacturing dropped sharply. HOU *S PER WEEK HOURS PER WEEK DURABLE MANUFACTURING NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING 42 42 40 ^^jX ^•^VA^ 40 ^ \^/V 38 38 36 36 34 34 0 i I 1 1 I 11 1M 1 1947 1 I 1 11 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 M 1 I M 11 1 1948 1949 ! ! I 1 1 1I111 1 0 V ^ ^ l^ r ^ ^ * ^ . r\r \f 1 1 ! 1 1 1 11 1 I 1 1950 I 1 I I i 1I 1 1 1 1 I 1947 1948 r~}rx ! 1 1 1 1 II 1 1 1 - - 1 I 1 1 ! 111 1 1 I 1949 1950 RETAIL TRADE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION 42 42 40 40 _J~\ •^v^/V /iWa«i^^ . ^»*wr '^y ^%r '«*!&& 38 38 * v^N/l\/-x \ 36 36 \,v 34 0 \ M 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1947 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M i l l ! 1949 1948 34 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 0 TIi ii i, M ii i i i i i 1 i i I 1 I1 1947 1950 M i l l , .... 1949 1948 1 I 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I960 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Hours per week, selected industries l] Manufacturing r Period 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average. .. . 1949 monthly average.— 1949* February .. March April May ._ ._ June July August September October November December 1950: January 3 February 8 March April 3 Total . i For production and related workers, .... ,_ 37, 7 44. 9 40. 4 40. 4 40. 1 39. 2 39. 4 39. 1 38. 4 38. 6 38 8 38.8 39. 1 39. 6 39. 7 39 1 39. 8 39. 7 39 7 39. 7 39 7 Durable goods Nondurable goods (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) 40.6 40. 5 39. 5 39 9 39. 5 39 0 39. 0 39 2 38 8 39.3 '39. 6 39. 9 39 0 40 1 40. 0 40 1 40. 2 40 8 2 Not available. (2) 40. 1 39. 6 38. 8 38. 8 38. 6 37 6 38. 1 38 5 38 7 38. 9 39. 6 39. 6 39 3 39.5 39. 4 39 3 39 2 38 5 Building construction Retail trade (2) (2) (2) (2) 37. 3 36. 6 36 5 36. 1 36 4 37. 2 37 1 37. 1 37.2 36. 5 36.9 36. 1 35. 8 34. 8 33 6 34. 6 2 () (2) (2) (2) 40. 3 40. 3 40.4 40 2 40. 1 40 2 40. 3 40 5 40 9 40. 9 40 5 40. 4 40 1 * 40. 7 40. 4 40 3 40. 4 (2) 3 Preliminary estimate. Source: Department of Labor. WORK STOPPAGES Man-days of idleness decreased from March to April. Although the number of stoppages beginning in April increased, most of the April stoppages involved relatively small numbers of workers. MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE 20 EO MONTHLY AVERAGE 1 1939 ) 1 1 1940 1941 1942 1943 Workers involved in stoppages Beginning In effect Percent of during in estimated month period working time (thousands) (thousands) 1, 170 0.28 2, 360 .32 840 .05 1,980 . 15 2, 120 .09 3,470 .47 4,600 1.43 2, 170 .41 1,960 .37 3, 030 .59 520 490 .45 160 208 .27 231 309 .49 572 673 . 61 110 249 . 35 134 232 .27 507 603 .87 570 977 2.49 914 57 .93 46 417 . 19 300 185 .38 75 515 1.27 80 530 .49 160 300 .47 Man-days of idleness during period Period 1939 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1949: March. _ _. April May Monthly average (thousands) _ _ June _ July August * September _ October _ _ November December 1950: January 1 February ._ Marchx l April __ 10 i Preliminary estimate., 1,483 1,917 348 1,125 727 3,166 9,667 2, 883 2,842 4,208 3,460 1,880 3,430 4,470 2,350 2, 140 6,270 17, 500 6,270 1, 350 2, 600 7,850 3, 750 3,150 Number of stoppages Beginning in period 2,613 4,288 2,968 3,752 4,956 4,750 4,985 3,693 3,419 3,606 289 360 449 377 343 365 287 256 197 170 225 210 260 400 In effect during month 436 531 678 632 603 643 536 475 388 323 340 325 400 550 Source; Department of Labor, PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Industrial production rose further in April and May, reflecting higher output of durable goods. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGu 400 PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE 400 1939 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 1948 1950 * PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE COUNCIL Or ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOV! [1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted] Period 1943 monthly average _ _ _ 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average.,-. _. 1949 monthly average 1949: March April May _- _ June July August September October November December 1950* January_. FebruaryMarch Aprill1 May XUCUjr 1 Preliminary estimate. Total industrial production 239 170 187 192 176 184 179 174 169 161 170 174 166 173 179 183 180 187 189 193 IManufacture s Total 258 177 194 198 183 193 184 179 176 168 177 184 176 179 188 192 192 194 198 201 Durable goods Nondurable goods 360 192 220 225 202 223 212 201 194 185 193 199 175 181 203 209 207 212 222 228 176 165 172 177 168 168 162 161 161 154 165 173 177 177 176 179 180 180 179 180 Minerals 132 134 149 155 135 136 148 145 133 123 129 119 112 141 132 130 118 144 141 145 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Beserve System, 11 WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORS With the steel industry operating above stated capacity levels throughout May, a record number of tons were produced. Automobile production also established a new high. Electric power production continued at its April rate. Bituminous coal mining dropped. MILLIONS OF TONS BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS 3 7.0 J F M A M J J A S 0 ND 0 F M A M J J SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS. St eel Period Weekly average: 1947 1948. ... 1949._ Week ended: 1949: May 7 14. - Thousands of net tons 1 628 1,695 1,493 Percent of theoretical capacity1 93.0 94. 1 81. 0 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Electric power, Bituminous coal by utilities (thousands of (millions of kilowatt-hours) short tons) 2 4, 821 5, 300 5,500 2,058 1, 948 1,418 Cars and trucks (number) 90, 860 100, 670 120, 800 123, 577 1, 881 5, 284 97 3 1 794 112, 557 1, 857 5, 257 96 2 1 774 21 1, 869 5, 255 110, 630 95. 6 1, 762 28 1, 895 111, 285 5, 270 94 1 1 735 June 4 _ _ 5, 018 1, 868 91, 955 1 692 91. 8 11__ _ 2, 178 5, 300 130, 151 89. 1 1, 643 1950: May 6 . 1, 803 5, 872 139, 492 100 2 1 910 13 1, 662 167, 282 5, 864 100. 1 1, 908 1,602 20 167, 035 5,845 1, 931 101. 3 27 _ 5, 894 1, 700 176, 063 1, 941 101 8 3 3 5, 632 June 3_ 139, 061 101. 5 1, 935 10__^___ 101. 3 1,931 1 Based on weekly net ton capacity of 1,749,928 for 1947, 1,802,476 for 1948, 1,843,516 for 1949, and 1,906,268 for 1950. 2 Daily average for week. 8 Data became available after chart was prepared. Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edfson Electric Institute* Department of th^ Interior, and Ward's Auto* motive Reports, 12 ]PRODUCTION OF SELEC3TED MANUFACTURES Iron and steel and machinery industries further increaset* their output in April while other durable goods and most nondurable goods industries except textiles continued at their previous high levels. PERC ENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERC ENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE 250 250 STEEL IRON A NO 200 150 IOO 0 A /*\ AT //^\rL \l AND PRODUCTS' :R IOO I I 1 ' -%Xq N 200 r v^-v, 150 J 0 40 42 48 1 ^^ 150 1 f / S 100 1 11 1 1 1I I 1 U ,,,,,i,,irr 1949 0 1950 XX i i i i i 200 1948 ,,,,,i,,,m ' : j \¥/^ 1 / ! 44 46 AND ! V^.™ 250 NONFERROUS METALS AND PROD /TS \S / A ' PRODUCTS C kL PRODUCTS. *\ A ^ ^ i . i . i i i i n IT, , , . 1 1 1 . i . 1Vr ">>> Ju H Vv, ** \ 0 ~~l i \ i i i i i i j"**l fill IJ JjL J 1 1 j 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I ! 1 1 / * ' / L 300 N / M A CH I/ / 1\ y v 250 ii 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 iT K/N/I[W L jr f 35O 300 —""V **-NL * ^TEXTILES * .443 „ t ! '*"'' 150 ^vf r-r , i i i i i i i n rTTiniiiiii Illlllll 1 1 1 I 200 V J L- 350 IOO ,y f\ "V ^\ PETROLE UM AND COAL*^ >"! OC UCTS i ,/ ^"MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS " I L JIL rr i i i i i i i i n fT*> • < > i > > > > * 40 x-N. «s** ^ -—^^^> 42 44 46 48 1948 I I ! ) ll 1 1 1949 III . 1 1 1 . 1 1 1 1 rr I960 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISE* s SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted] Durable manufactures Period Iron and steel 1 943 monthly average . _ _ _ 1946 monthly average. 1947 monthly average ~ 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1949: March. _ ___ __ April May _ _ June _ _ July August_ September October. _ November December 1950: January February. March April 1 1 Preliminary estimate. 67616—50 3 208 150 195 208 188 233 219 204 177 156 178 179 102 145 201 203 201 205 222 Nondurable manufactures Lumber Nonferrous Textiles and Machinery metals and and products products products 129 131 143 145 131 129 126 126 123 115 126 132 133 147 159 144 150 156 153 443 240 276 277 234 252 240 232 225 217 216 224 226 217 227 229 237 243 251 267 157 187 193 159 183 167 145 133 127 141 157 164 163 165 179 188 199 198 153 162 163 169 147 142 129 123 126 120 140 155 169 175 173 178 179 173 163 Petroleum Manufac- Chemical and coal tured food products products products 185 173 193 218 209 213 209 207 202 198 203 208 198 205 219 211 205 206 203 145 150 157 159 163 162 162 163 165 161 166 167 165 160 160 161 161 166 162 384 236 251 254 240 245 237 234 233 228 229 236 240 243 246 248 247 247 250 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 13 NEW CONSTRUCTION New construction continued to rise rapidly in May, both in relation to the previous month and to the previous year. The rise occurred in ail categories. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2,000 1,500 1,500 1,000 I ,OOO 500 - ::•::: - 1939 1942 1944 1946 194? 1948 1948 1947 1949 1950 *iNciMoes PUBLIC aesioEHTiAi. coMsrnucriOM SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF C O M M E R C E AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Total new construction Period 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1949: April May June Julv ..... _ August September... October _ November December__ 1950: January February _ March « April 2 May ^ 1 _. _ . . .. . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ __ _ _ __ _ 526 1, 118 345 871 1, 194 1,565 1, 611 1,370 1, 576 1,735 1,833 1, 903 1,922 1,879 1,767 1,612 1,496 1, 395 1,540 1,702 1, 941 Private construction Residential Total Other (nonfarm) private 141 317 176 251 141 110 152 45 107 688 422 265 932 438 493 1,214 602 612 1, 172 585 586 989 445 544 1,108 530 578 1,229 629 600 1,301 650 651 1, 343 675 668 1,368 710 658 1,343 715 628 1, 295 715 580 1,225 690 535 1, 139 650 489 1, 068 590 478 1,155 650 505 1, 254 720 534 1,410 825 585 Federal, State, and local * 208 867 193 184 262 351 439 381 468 506 532 560 554 536 472 387 357 327 385 448 531 Includes public residential construction. Preliminary estimate. Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor. 14 NEW HOUSING STARTS With 126,000 new housing units started in April, an alt time record was established for the second successive month, indications are that the half-million mark for 1950 will be reached in May; it was reached last year in July, THOUSANDS OF UNITS THOUSANDS OF UNITS 125 125 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR New nonfarm units started j."U MontH it /r _ 1948 1949 --- --- 39, 300 42, 800 56, 000 67, 100 72, 900 77, 200 81, 100 86, 300 93, 800 94, 000 79, 700 58, 800 53, 500 50, 100 76, 400 99, 500 100, 300 97, 800 95, 000 86, 600 82, 200 73, 400 63, 600 52, 900 50, 000 50, 400 69, 400 88, 300 95, 400 95, 500 96, 100 99, 000 102, 900 104, 300 95, 500 78, 300 Total _ _ _ _ 849, 000 931, 300 1, 025, 100 Monthly average __. 70, 750 77, 600 85, 425 1947 January February March April Mav yj.a,j June July August September October November December __ __ _ _ _ __ __ _ . - _ Preliminary estimate. 1950 78, 700 80, 000 110, 000 126, 000 1 1 1 Source: Department of Labor. 15 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Plant and equipment expenditures by nonagricultural business firms in 1949 were 6 percent less than in 1948. Anticipated expenditures for 1st half of 1950 were estimated at $17 billion (annual rate) 8 percent below 1st half of 1949, according to plans reported by business in February of this year. Recent developments indicate that the expenditures will be above the earlier estimates. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 TRANSPORTATION AND : :ELECTRIC AND GAS: UTILITIES 1939 194! * ESTIMATES BASED OH PLANS REPORTED IN FEBRUARY I95O SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal variation] Period Total i Manufacturing Mining Transportation Railroad Other Electric and Commercial miscelgas utilities and laneous * 1,850 380 280 280 480 5,200 1,930 1939 -__ 2,490 680 560 340 710 8,190 3,400 1941 _ 1,480 440 550 320 630 6,630 3,210 1945. _ 5,390 1,320 700 800 2,680 8,340 19, 230 1948 1,350 520 5, 120 740 3, 140 18, 120 7, 250 1949 3 _ 4,480 650 930 350 2,940 16, 090 6,740 1950 -_ 5,440 800 680 2,760 1,320 8,360 1948: Third quarter 19, 320 880 5,760 1,640 680 3,400 Fourth quarter _ 21, 640 9,280 5,040 760 1,440 520 2,720 1949: First quarter. . 17, 840 7,400 5, 160 760 1,520 560 3,120 Second quarter 7,520 18, 640 5,040 720 1,240 560 3, 160 Third quarter _ _ _ 6, 760 17, 480 1,200 480 5,280 720 3,560 Fourth quarter 7, 320 18, 520 3 680 320 4,680 1,000 2,960 16, 440 6,760 1950: First quarter 3 360 4,720 680 1,040 3,240 Second quarter 6, 960 17, 040 1 Excludes agriculture. 3 Commercial and miscellaneous composed of trade, service, finance, and communication. 3 Figures for 1950 are based on anticipated capital expenditures reported in the February 1950 survey. Revisions based on the May survey will be published in the July issue of Economic Indicators. NOTE.,—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other data. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000. Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted). 16 NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES New corporate security issues during 1st quarter of this year rose above the seasonally high 41h quarter rate, and were substantially above 1st quarter of last year. Most of the additional proceeds from the larger security issues were used for retirement of debt and stock. B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS 3 0 1939 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3.O 1943 1946 1947 1948 SOURCE: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION. [Millions of dollars] Proposed Estimated net proceeds Period New money Plant and equipment Total 1939 1943 1946 1947 1948 1949 1948: quarterly average quarterly average quarterly average quarterly average quarterly average quarterly average First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter « 1949: First quarter Second quarter— Third quarterFourth quarter 1950: First quarter 1 . .. . _ .. - .. - . _ - ... - _„ _.______._ . „ . . . „ 529 287 1, 689 1,617 1,748 1,520 1, 769 1,817 1, 352 2,054 1, 195 2,475 1,006 1,403 1,398 81 77 820 1,148 1,491 1,209 1,511 1,493 1,087 1,874 954 2,088 834 960 1,014 Includes small amount for other purposes. .—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. of net proceeds 43 35 529 852 1, 060 948 918 1,091 774 1,459 762 1,679 677 675 777 Working capital 39 42 291 296 431 261 593 402 314 415 193 409 157 285 237 Retirement of debt and stock l 448 210 869 469 257 311 260 325 265 180 241 386 172 444 384 Source: Securities and Exchange Commission- INVENTORIES AND SALES 5sales in April, after adjusting for seasonal changes, declined moderately for manufacturers and most trade groups, [)epartment store sales rose substantially, Inventories of manufacturers and wholesalers continued to increase while t hose of retailers declined. BILL IONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RETAIL TOTAL* AND MANUFACTURING 60 20 SEASONALLY^.... .... MONTHLY AVERAGE A X,,... ..X .•*"** 50 ADJUSTED TOTAL MONTHLY AVERAGE /: ....*** INVENTORIES*^ 10 | 1 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ^-INVENTORIES , f SALES I j: ^TO TAL SALES* 40 0 !"WVv / J/A 30 / "^ ' // 1 1 1 I I f M i 40 42 44 46 48 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1i MONTHLY AVERAGE -^vv.^ 1 10 0 MANUFACT DRING STORES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED /N '" j/j 200 SALES'^ / 1 1950 400 f t'Lr r ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1949 DEPARTMENT X....... INVENTORIES 300 20 1 I M 1 1 1 1i 11 PERC ENT OF 1935-1939 AVERAGE """"••-,. "^MANUFACTUR N6 M 1948 SALES ^^f<^X INVENTORIES^ / 100 i ' M11 1 L i10 42 44 46 48 SOURCE : 1 1 M f 1 1 1 1 1 I 1948 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1949 I M i i 1 i I rl I \ i i i ( | i | j 0 M 1 I i 11 M M 40 42 44 46 48 1950 1948 1 1 1 I 1 1 11 1 1 1 1949 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Total business l Period Inventories 2 -Sales s Sales 3 Retail New orders 4 Inventories 2 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1939 1943 _ 1945 _ * _ _ _ 1946 1947 _ -_ 1948 1949 1949: March April May t J_ June July August September October November December 1950: January 7 February __ _ March7 7 April 20, 172 31, 143 30, 571 42, 709 51, 692 58, 546 53, 628 58, 216 57, 806 56, 857 56, 434 55, 320 54, 631 54, 601 54, 356 53, 996 53, 628 54, 123 53, 932 54, 513 54, 874 11, 109 22, 372 24, 181 27, 800 34, 739 38, 190 36, 008 37, 065 35, 879 36, 039 36, 392 34, 821 37, 136 37, 240 34, 603 35, 496 34, 651 35, 678 36, 463 37, 946 36, 666 11,465 20, 098 18, 390 24, 818 29, 818 34, 066 30, 899 34, 223 34, 018 33, 565 33, 250 32, 367 31, 638 31, 060 30, 744 30, 547 30, 899 31, 136 31, 098 31, 103 31, 300 5, 100 12, 822 12, 883 12, 841 17, 076 18, 998 17, 815 18, 451 17, 643 17, 741 17, 990 17, 114 18, 945 18, 866 16, 805 17, 313 16, 857 17,650 18, 035 19, 144 18, 300 * Total business includes manufacturing, retail, and wholesale (not shown separately in this table). 2 8 Book value, end of period. Monthly average for year and total for month. 4 Data for new orders not adjusted for seasonal variation. 18 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1950 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturing Inventories 2 M (6) (66) () 14, 004 16, 768 18, 694 17, 189 17, 962 15, 968 15, 734 16, 300 15, 496 18, 697 19, 441 18, 359 18, 138 16, 775 18, 646 17, 983 20, 223 18, 000 Sales 8 4 5, 532 7,361 7,543 11, 226 13, 221 14, 969 13, 698 14, 700 14, 458 14, 139 14, 182 13, 862 13, 932 14, 355 14, 475 14, 336 13, 698 13, 996 13, 800 14, 282 14, 153 3, 504 5, 277 6,315 8,358 9, 909 10, 837 10, 682 10, 724 10, 814 10, 759 10, 684 10, 549 10, 669 10, 856 10, 678 10, 630 10, 503 10, 855 11, 101 11, 125 11, 072 Department stores InvenSales 5 tories 5 1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted 102 106 155 168 166 207 264 213 286 255 302 291 270 285 282 279 278 293 273 291 265 285 280 256 283 253 263 289 270 276 277 273 271 293 272 282 279 280 285 274 286 292 § Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for month and retail book value of inventories, end of period. 6 Not available. 7 Preliminary estimates. Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS Both exports and imports fell in April from their March levels. The steeper decline in imports increased the merchandise export surplus, but this surplus remained much below a year ago. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 1946 1947 1948 1949 1948 1950 SOURCES. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OP THE NAVY [Millions of dollars] Exports * Period 1936-38 monthly average. 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average™ „.. 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1949: March April . May June Julv - - -. August-., . September October. . November « _ December 1950 1 January February March April WJ 1 1 .... - . . . „« ._ ~ - . _. -_„ . „ , ... „_ .. - - --- _ ... _ _ _ _ __ _ „ -„ 247 ._ . _ _ 1,080 849 1S278 1,054 1,000 1, 177 1S166 1,092 1, 104 899 880 906 852 837 944 745 770 867 808 Imports s 207 282 410 478 592 553 633 534 541 526 457 491 536 559 594 605 623 599 663 583' Excess of exports 40 798 439 801 462 447 544 632 551 578 442 389 370 293 243 339 122 171 204 225 Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied Eecorded general merchandise imports. Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy, 19 National income, after declining during each quarter of 1949, turned up in 1st quarter of I960, according to preliminary data. The increase represented a rise in*all major components except interest. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED TOTAL NATIONAL INCOME CORPORATE PROFITS AND : : : : INVENTORY VALUATION : : : :-:-:-:-: : :-: : :'•:'•:'•:'::': ADJUSTMENT ::,:::::::;:;;;:;:;x;x;:;: r^-Xv.•>>:•; NET INTEREST : |llPllliii|;lii|COMPENSAT! ON .OFjjjjjjjjl 3 4 1 2 3 4 I 3 Z 4 1 * 2 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE of dollars] Period Total national income Compensaof employees Proprietors5 (businesss professional, Net farm) Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Total • 1939 . .... ... 1944 1946.. . ... _ 1947 1948. _ 1949.-. ... 72.5 183.8 179.6 201.7 226. 2 221.3 47.8 121.2 117.0 127.6 140.3 141. 1 1948: Third quarter.-... Fourth quarter __._ 1949: First quarterSecond quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1950 : First quarter l 230. 4 234. S 224.7 220. 8 220. 7 219. 1 2 221. 6 143.3 1449 141. 9 140. 8 141. 1 140. 9 142. 8 14.7 35.5 41.2 45. 1 49.5 44.8 4.2 3.1 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.2 5.8 24.0 18.3 25.6 32.6 31.2 Profits before taxes Inventory valuation adjustment 6.5 24.3 23.6 31.6 34.8 28.6 -0.7 -.3 -5.2 -6.0 -2.2 + 2.6 36.6 34. 5 29.4 26. 4 28. 9 29.5 2 30. 5 -3.3 + 1.2 + 2.2 + 4.3 + 3.3 +.7 —.7 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1 2 20 49.9 49.7 47. 1 45. 1 43. 1 43.7 44. 7 3.9 4.1 4. 1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 33.3 35.7 31. 6 30.7 32. 3 30.2 2 29. 8 Preliminary estimates. Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data, NOTE.—Detail will not to of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). CORPORATE Preliminary estimates indicate that the improvement in profits continued into 1950. In the last half of has MILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3 4 I 2 1947 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF 3 4 ' I 2 3 1949 1948 OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS COMMERCE of Period 1929 1939.. 1944 1946.. . 1947. 1948 1949. .. — ... . . .... . .... , Corporate profits before 9.8 6.5 24.3 23.6 31. 6 34.8 28.6 Corporate tax liability 1.4 1.5 13.5 9.6 12.5 13.6 11.2 14.4 36.6 1948: Third quarter 13. 6 34. 5 Fourth quarter 29.4 11.5 1949: First quarter 26.4 10.6 Second quarter 11.4 28.9 Third quarter. _ » «_ 11.2 29.5 Fourth quarter 12.2 30. 5 1950: First quarter1 1 Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; on incomplete NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation taxes and inventory valuation adjustment. Detail will not necessarily add to because of rounding. Dividend payments Total Undistributed profits 8.4 5.0 10. 8 13.9 19. 1 21.2 17.4 5.8 3.8 4.7 5.8 7.0 7.9 8.4 2.6 1.2 6. 1 8.1 12.1 13.2 9.0 22.2 20. 9 17. 9 15.8 17.5 18.2 18.3 7.9 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.9 8. 6 14.3 12. 6 9.6 7.6 9.4 9.3 9.7 p. 20 for profits before of Cominerte (exeept as noted). 21 PERSONAL INCOME Personal income dropped $ 6 biilion (annual rate) from March to April, $1 billion less than the drop in transfer payments. Salaries and wages advanced; proprietors' income declined. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 250 1939 1944 1947 J 1948 A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S O N D1 J F .M A ( V . J SOURCE: J A S O N D 1949 1947 J F M A M 1950- DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars] Total personal income Period 1939 1944 . _ 1947 1948 1949 .. 1949: March April May June July._ August September October November _ _ December 1950: January February „__ March _ April 2 „ 72.6 165. 9 193.5 211. 9 209.8 ._ _ _._ __ __ _ 210.2 210. 5 210.2 209.4 207.2 209. 1 208.3 207. 0 209. 4 211.9 1 218. 1 1 219. 1 1 222. 8 1 216. 9 Proprietors' (business, Salaries, wages, professional, Dividends and other and personal farm) labor income interest and rental income 9.2 45.7 14.7 10.6 116. 2 35.5 45. 1 14.8 122.0 135. 1 16.2 49.5 17.2 44. 8 135.6 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 46.2 134. 4 17.0 45.0 17. 1. 136.0 45.2 17.0 135. 8 45. 1 17.0 135.0 42. 8 16. 9 135. 1 43.9 17. 1 135. 5 17.2 42.7 135.8 134. 8 42.9 17.3 17.4 44.9 134.7 18. 9 136.6 43.5 17.4 46.5 135.9 17.6 135. 3 44. 1 17.9 43. 5 137. 3 42. 8 18. 1 139. 1 Transfer payments 3.0 3.6 11.7 11. 1 12.2 12. 6 12.4 12.2 12. 3 12.4 12.6 12. 6 12.0 12.4 12.8 J 18. 3 *22. 1 *24. 1 U6. 9 1 Includes veterans' insurance dividend—$5.4 billion, annual rate (or $450 million, monthly total) in January, $9.5 billion, annual rate V.POUI million, monthly total) in February, $10.6 billion, annual rate ($887 million, monthly total) in March, and $4.1 billion, annual rate ($345 million, monthly total) in April. 2 Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce, 22 CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, Payment of the special insurance dividend to veterans during 1st quarter in I960 distorted disposable personal income. It accounted for ^/4 of the increase of $1! billion (annual rate). Expenditures increased by only $3 billion, indicating that the insurance dividend spent slowly. Correspondingly, consumer saving was temporarily high. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL TOTALS ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1.50 <§>X<^>%CONSUM PT!ON' EXPENDlf URES$£tt\:>"&%&&'jtt$'£ v»S^;^W4^^^ SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Disposable personal income 1 Period 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 . 1948 1949 _ - -•_. ___ ___ --_ _ _ ----_ _ „ __- -_ _ - _ _ -- -- - _- -- --- _ _ _ _ _ _ 70.2 75.7 92. 0 116.7 132.4 147.0 151. 1 158. 1 172. 0 190. 8 191. 2 195. 2 1948' Third quarter -196.2 Fourth, quarter -__ _ _ 193.4 1949: First quarter _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ 191.4 Second quarter _ __ _ _ 189.5 Third quarter 190. 7 Fourth quarter _ _ _ _ _ _ ___ 201.3 1950: First quarter 1 Income less taxes. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Less: Personal Equals: PerNet saving as sonal net consumption percent of dissaving expenditures posable income Billions of dollars 2.7 67.5 3.8 3.7 72. 1 4. 9 82. 3 9.8 10.7 25. 6 91. 2 21. 9 102.2 30. 2 22.8 35.4 111. 6 24. 1 123. 1 28. 0 18.5 147.8 10. 3 6.5 5. 1 166. 9 3.0 12. 0 178.8 6.3 11.8 179. 4 6.2 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 15.0 180. 3 7.7 15. 3 180.9 7.8 14.8 178. 7 7.7 12. 1 179.3 6. 3 9. 8 179. 7 5.2 10. 8 179. 8 5.7 182. 7 18. 6 9. 2 Source: Department of Commerce. 23 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Personal consumption expenditures in first quarter of I960 were 1 percent above the peak rate of 4th quarter of 1948, according to revised estimates. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 200 NNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE - ECONOMIC A D V I S E R ' [Billions of dollars] Personal consumption expenditures Period Nondurable goods Total 1939_ 1944_ 19461947 1948. 1949. 67.5 111.6 147. 8 166.9 178.8 179.4 35.3 67. 1 86.8 96.2 102.2 98.9 Durable goods 6.7 7. 1 16. 5 22.0 23.5 24.4 Services 25.5 37.4 44. 5 48.8 53. 1 56. 1 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1948: Third quarter Fourth quarter 1949: First quarter _ _ Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter .»_ 1950: First quarter. . _ 180.3 180. 9 178. 7 179.3 179. 7 179.8 182. 7 101.8 103.3 100. 4 99.8 97. 6 97.7 98. 1 24. 8 22.9 23.0 23.6 25.7 25.2 26. 9 53. 7 54.8 55.3 55.9 56.5 56.9 57.7 NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. 24 1 PER CAPITA INCOME11 Per capita disposable income, including veterans' insurance dividend, increased in first quarter of I960, both in terms of current dollars and in real purchasing power. Without the dividend, there was no increase. 0 DLLARS 1,600 DOLLA *S 1,600 ~" 1948 DOLLARS** ^ "^"^^ ~~ - t Z***"^ -*—*1- 1,200 --/ /^ - - ' 1,200 ' - 800 800 / CURRENT DOLLARS _ . • _ 400 400 1 0 1939 1 1940 1 1941 1942 1 1943 1 1944 1 1945 1 1946 1947 1 1948 1 1949 1 1 3 1947 # L U . LL \ 4 1 1 2 1 3 1948 0 1 4 1 2 3 1949 4 1 2 1950 A COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS Per capita disposable personal income l Current 1948 dollars * dollars $923 $536 —.. 574 981 . ----- — 691 . 1, 125 867 1,262 . - - — . — . __ 970 1,314 1,065 1, 405 1,082 - _ . .— . 1,389 1,119 1, 342 . 1,194 1, 282 1,302 1,302 1,281 1,297 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1, 328 1,305 1,328 1,319 1, 304 1,315 1,285 •1,298 1,267 1,284 , *.„ 1,269 1,292 1,334 _ _ __ 1,370 Period 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 - - - - -—_ - __ • -•- 1948: Third quarterFourth, quarter 1949: First quarter Second quarter. Third quarter Fourth quarter-. 1950: First quarter Consumers* price index3 1948 = 100 58.1 58.5 61.4 68.7 73.8 75.8 77.9 83.4 93. 1 100.0 98.8 Not adjusted for seasonal variation 101.8 100.7 99.2 99.0 98. 7 98.2 97. 4 1 Income less taxes. 2 Current dollars divided 3 by the consumers' price index on the base 1948=100, The consumers' price index has been roughly adjusted to take account of the understatement from December 1941-February 1947. This adjustment is in line with the report of the Mitchell Committee. The unadjusted index will be found on page 3. Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor. 25 AVERAGE HOURLY EAFiNIN GS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES Average hourly earnings in durable goods manufactur ng increcjsed in April. In nondurable goods manufacturing the increase was comparatively slight. DOLL/IRS 1.60 DOLL ARS PER HOUR PER HOUR 1.50 DURABLE MANUFACTURING NONDURABLE sf 1.50 1948 DOLLARS* j,*>»7* ^zix-^xy 1.40 ~*^ 1948 1.40 1.30 &r ,J .. 1.30 1.20 / CURF ENT DOLLARS* —*/r f=^4 P"" r ''~^Jc^' S^ CURRENT DOLLARS * 1.10 i iiii!iiiii 1947 2.10 _ f DOLLARS 1.20 0 MANUFACTURING 1 1 1 11 111 111 t t i i i 1 i i i |i • 1948 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1949 0 1 1 1 II 1 M M 1 1947 1950 11 1 1 i 1 | | | | | " M 1948 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1949 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 M 1 1950 1.30 ' RETAIL TRADE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION t\ ^ 2.00 1.20 J ' 1948 DOLLARS* 1.90 -^J*-^^^^*^ £ 1.10 f948 DOLLARS*' Jj S^****^ 1.80 CURRENT DOLLAF S 1.00 ** / ^ ^ CURRENT DOLLARS "^ .90 1.70 0 | II ! 1 1 1 1 1 II l l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1947 1 1 1 I I I 1 1 II 1948 ! 1949 i M i i 1r i i i i 0 1 1 i i i 1 1 i i i i i i i i i !i i i ii 1947 1950 1 1. , 1 ! 1 M 1 1 1949 1948 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1950 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Selected industries * All manufacturing Durable goods manufacturing Period Current dollars 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average __ 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average.. 1949: March _ _ _ April _ _ Mav t. J June _ July August September October November December 1950: January February 4 March 4 April 4 1 $0. 633 . 961 1, 084 1. 237 1. 350 1.401 1. 400 1. 401 1. 401 1. 405 1.408 1. 399 1. 407 1.392 _ _ _ 1. 392 _ _ _ _ 1. 408 1.418 1. 420 _ __ 1. 424 1. 433 Production and related workers. s Not available. 26 2 2 Current dollars 1948 dollars 2 $1. 090 1.302 1. 300 1. 329 1. 350 1. 418 1. 414 1. 414 1. 418 1. 418 1. 434 1. 419 1.420 1.415 1. 413 1.440 1. 454 1.459 1. 461 1. 467 (3) (3) (3) $1. 292 1.410 1. 469 1. 464 1.467 1. 467 1.475 1. 477 1. 473 1.482 1. 458 1. 457 1.476 1. 485 1. 483 1.487 1. 496 (3) (3) 1948 dollars (3) $1. 388 1.410 1. 487 1.479 1. 480 1. 485 1.488 1.504 1. 494 1.495 1.482 1.479 1.509 1. 523 1. 524 1. 525 1. 531 Nondurable goods manufacturing Building construction Retail trade Current 1948 1948 1948 Current Current dollars dollars 2 dollars dollars 2 dollars dollars 2 (33) () (3) $1. 171 1. 278 1.325 1.323 1. 321 1.323 1. 324 1. 332 1.319 1. 328 1.325 1.325 1. 334 1.343 1.350 1. 354 1.357 (33) (3) () $1. 258 1.278 1. 341 1.336 1. 333 1. 339 1.336 1.356 1. 338 1. 340 1.347 1. 345 1.364 1.377 1.387 1.389 1. 389 (33) (3) (3) () $1. 848 1. 935 1. 933 1.934 1. 930 1.924 1. 922 1. 932 1. 938 1. 944 1. 947 1.964 1. 976 2. 001 2.010 « (3a) (3) (3) () $1. 848 1.958 1. 953 1.952 1.953 1. 941 1.957 1.959 1. 956 1.976 1. 977 2. 008 2.027 2. 057 2.062 (3) (33) () (3) $1. 009 1. 088 1. 137 1. 121 1. 127 1. 141 1. 147 1. 148 1. 146 1. 150 1. 140 1. 138 1. 126 1. 153 1. 147 1. 148 (8) (33) (3) () $1. 084 1.088 1. 151 1. 132 1. 137 1. 155 1. 157 1. 169 1. 162 1. 160 1. 159 1. 155 1. 151 1. 183 1. 179 1. 177 (3) Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on base 1948=100. See note 3 to table on page 25. * Preliminary estimates. Source: Department of Labor. AVERAGE WEEKLY EA£INI& FGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES Average weekly earnings in durable manufacturing indus tries ros e $1.26 in April to a record $61.04, The increase partly reflects the overtime cur rently pi•evailing in this industrial sector, in there was a drop of $.84 due to a shorter workweek. DOL LARS PER WEEK 65 DOL LARS 60 DURABLE MANUFACTURING 60 I948 DOLLARS \ Xo,RRENT _s 50 55 *mS' 1948 DOLLARS* \^J> 55 PER WEEK NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING /**/* r n // ^^^j *~\t7^ 50 DOLLARS 45 *****^r^« CURR ENT DOLLARS . • 40 45 0 of 7,, , , ! , , , , , 1 i 1 1 I.J—1 LLL1 1947 1948 1 M M 1M M 1 M 1949 M i 11M 11 0 |iiin | M 1 | | \ | J| 1 1947 1950 ,,,,,(,,,,, 1948 1 M 1949 1 I 1 M M? 1950 50 80 RETAIL TRADE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION — »» ^ 1948 DOLLARS* aC-**^^***^^ 45 75 ^f\ *^Vk/ 70 1948 DOLLAF * s 40 V j^^ '^^^'^ ******^ ^CURRENT DOLLARS 35 65 ^CURRENT D OLLARS 30 60 0 TM , , ! , M M , Ml , 1I 1 M , 1947 * CURRENT SOURCE". i i i i | I i i i i i _L_LJL_1_1 1 M M 1 1948 1949 1950 0 1 1 1 1 ' \ \ JJ J 1 1947 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 IS48 , , , , , i , , , ,T ini|I 1949 1950 DOLLARS 0 V DEO BY CONSUMERS PR^CE INDEX ON BASE OF 1948 = 100 DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISORS [Selected industries *] All manufacturing Period 1939 monthly average _ 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average _ 1947 monthly average. _ _ 1948 month! v average 1949 monthly average 1949: March April May_ June July August _ _ September October November „ December 1950: January 4 February March 4 _ April 4 . __ _ Nondurable goods manufacturing Building construction Retail trade 1948 Current 1948 Current Current Current 1948 Current 1948 1948 dollars dollars 2 dollars dollars 2 dollars dollars 2 dollars dollars 2 dollars dollars 2 $23. 86 43. 14 43. 74 49.97 54. 14 54. 92 54.74 53. 80 54. 08 54.51 54. 63 54. 70 55.72 55. 26 54. 43 56. 04 56. 29 56. 37 56. 53 56. 89 i For production and related workers. * Not available. Durable goods manufacturing $41. 07 • 58. 46 52.45 53. 67 54. 14 55. 59 55.29 54.29 54. 74 55.00 55.63 55. 48 56.23 56. 16 55. 26 57.30 57. 73 57.93 57. 98 58. 23 (3) (3a) (3) (3) (B) () $52. 46 $56. 35 57. 11 57. 11 58.03 58. 73 57. 83 58. 41 57.21 57.73 57. 21 57.90 57. 82 58. 35 57.31 58.36 58. 71 57. 89 58. 69 59. 22 58. 17 59. 12 56. 82 57. 69 59. 19 60. 52 59. 40 60.92 59.47 61. 12 59.78 •61.31 61. 04 ' 62.48 (3) (3) (3) $46. 96 50. 61 51. 41 51. 07 49.67 50.41 50. 97 51.55 51. 31 52.59 52.47 52. 07 52. 69 52. 91 53. 06 53.08 52. 24 (33) (3) () $50. 44 50. 61 52.03 51. 59 50. 12 51. 02 51. 43 52.49 52. 04 53.07 53.32 52. 86 53.88 54. 27 54. 53 54. 44 53.47 (38) (3) () (3) $68. 85 70. 95 69.83 70.33 71. 81 71.44 71. 28 71. 95 70. 69 71.80 70. 21 70.26 68. 76 67.23 69. 55 {i) (3) (3) (3) (3) $68. 85 71.81 70. 54 70.97 72. 68 72.09 72.59 72. 97 71.33 72. 97 71. 28 71.84 70.52 69. 10 71. 33 (3) (3) (33) () $40. 66 43. 85 45.93 44. 95 45.31 45.98 46. 45 46.95 46. 87 46. 58 46.06 45. 63 45. 83 46.58 46. 22 46.38 (s) (33) () (3) $43. 67 43. 85 46.49 45. 40 45.72 46.54 46. 87 47.81 47. 54 47. 00 46.81 46. 32 46.86 47.77 47. 50 47.57 (3) 2 Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1948=100. See note 3 to table on page 25. * Preliminary estimates. Source: Department of Labor. 27 FARM INCOME hcsrmers1 cash receipts in April were 14 percent below April 1949. This brought the average for the first four months of 1950 more than 10 percent below cash receipts in the comparable period of last year; prices paid were 2 percent below. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4 I 1939 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 I 48 F I M 1 A SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. I J ' J I A 1 S I 0 1 ND itlClL Of ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S Period 1939 monthly average " 1941 monthly average.. 1942 monthly average - 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1949: March...;. . _. _ April _ May _ _. June___._ _ „ July ' August- ^ . September __ October „ _ _ _ November^ . December 1950: January February March 4 . .April 4 . I M -- -- _ 1 Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments. 2 Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1948=100. 3 paid by Farm income Prices farmers (incl. Farm income (millions of interest, taxes, (millions of current and wage rates) 1948 dollars) 8 2 dollars) * 1948= 100 724 47 1,540 981 1,924 51 1,340 2, 271 59 1,765 2, 521 70 1,857 2,544 73 2, 110 80 2, 638 2,542 2, 733 93 2,609 100 2, 609 2,309 2,380 97 1,973 98 2,013 1,850 1,888 98 1, 944 1,984 98 2,053 2, 116 97 2,244 2,177 97 2,417 96 2,518 2, 608 96 2, 717 3, 139 3,304 95 3,050 95 3,211 2,326 95 2,448 2,254 2,348 96 1,614 96 1,681 1,707 97 1,760 1, 594 97 1,643 Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, taxes, and wage rates, 1948=100. < Preliminary estimates. Source: Department of Agriculture. 28 CONSUMER CREDIT Total instalment credit continued to advance in April. B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 25 (943 1948 1949 1948 END OF YEAR 1949 1950 END OF MONTHCOUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE : BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Millions of dollars] Total consumer credit outstanding End of period 1939 1943 _ 1946 1947 1948 1949 1949* March April . - May June July. . . . August September October . November December _ 1950* January February March _ _ April 2 . _ 7,969 5,378 10, 191 13, 673 16, 319 18, 779 15, 335 15, 595 15, 843 16, 124 16, 198 16, 453 16, 803 17, 223 17, 815 . 18,779 18, 344 18, 126 18, 304 18, 629 Instalment credit Total Automobile sale credit Other sale credit and loans 1,267 175 544 1,151 1,961 3, 144 2, 105 2,241 2,386 2,499 2,610 2,761 2,876 2,986 3,085 3, 144 3, 179 3,256 3,355 3,478 3,157 1,826 3,456 5,283 6,639 7,746 6,324 6,389 6,502 6, 624 6,725 6, 861 7, 023 7, 180 7,356 7,746 7,657 7,628 7,724 7, 843 4,424 2,001 4,000 6,434 8,600 10, 890 8,429 8,630 8,888 9, 123 9,335 9,622 9,899 10, 166 10,441 10, 890 10, 836 10, 884 11,079 11,321 i Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Charge accounts 1,544 1,498 3,054 3,612 3,854 3, 909 3, 121 3, 232 3,235 3,274 3,123 3, 064 3,123 3, 197 3, 454' 3,909 3, 506 3,233 3,211 3,241 Other consumer credit * 2,001 1,879 3,137 3,627 3,865 3, 980 3,785 3, 733 3,720 3,727 3,740 3,767 3,781 3, 860 3,920 3,980 4, 002 4,009 4, 014 4,067 2 Preliminary estimates. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS Commercial bank loans again increased moderately in April, as contrasted with last year when during the single month a decline of more than $1 billion was reported. Their holdings of Government securities continued to decline. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 150 1939 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 150 1943 1948 END OF YEAR S 1949 O N D J F M A M J . J 1949 END A S O N D 1950 OF MONTH S O U R C E : BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Billions of dollars, all commercial banks] m j i lotai loans and investments End of period 1929 1939 . 1945 1947 1948. . 1949 1949' March April « May . . June July . .. August September October. November December 1950: January February March April i _ . ........ . _ . ^ . _ —. ___• . - . - . ... - '- - • . « 1 Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. 30 49. 5 40. 7 124. 0 116.3 114. 3 120. 2 112. 5 112. 5 113.4 113. 8 114. 8 117.9 118. 5 119. 5 119.7 120. 2 121.2 120. 6 120. 3 120.4 Investments Bank loans 36. 0 17. 2 26. r 38. 1 42,5 43.0 42.4 • 41.3 40.9 41. 0 40. 5 41.2 41. 7 41. 8 42. 7 43. 0 42. 9 43. 1 43. 6 43.8 Total 13. 5 23. 4 • 97. 9 78. 2 71.8 77.2 70. 1 7L 2 72.6 72.7 ! 74. 3 76. 7 76. 8 77.7 77. 0 77.2 78. 3 77.5 76.7 76. 6 U. 8. Government securities 4. 8 16. 3 90. 6 69. 2 62.6 67.0 60. 9 62.0 63.2 63. 2 64.4 66.7 66. 7 67. 6 66.9 67.0 68. 0 67. 1 65. 8 65. 6 Other securities 8. 7 7. 1 7.3 9.0 9.2 10.2 9. 2 9.2 9. 3 9.5 9. 8 10.0 10. 2 10. 1 10. 1 10. 2 10. 3 10.4 10. 8 11.0 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. MONEY SUPPLY With the end of the seasonally high tax collections in 1st quarter, the money supply began to expand again in April. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY (EXCLUDING U.S. GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS) 1939 1943 1948 1949 1949 END OF Y E A R 1950 END OF MONTH SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Adjusted Total money Currency Time demand outside deposits * supply deposits * banks 6.4 63.3 29.8 27. 1 1939 _ 1943 __ 112.4 32. 7 60. 8 18. 8 164.0 83.3 54.0 26. 7 1946 56. 4 170.0 87. 1 26.5 1947 — 169. 1 26. 1 85. 5 57. 5 1948 ' - - - - 169.8 85.8 1949 25. 4 58. 6 166. 3 1949: February - ' __ 57. 8 25. 1 83. 4 164. 2 March 25. 1 58. 0 81. 1 82.4 April - 165. 5 24.9 58. 1 165.6 82.5 25.0 May , 58. 2 165. 6 25. 3 58. 5 June 81. 9 July 166.3 24.9 83. 1 58.4 166.9 83.4 August.. »-„__ 25. 1 58. 4 September . . . 16b. 3 24. 9 83. 1 58. 4 October • 167. 6 24. 9 84. 3 58. 4 November. 168. 1 85.0 25. 1 58. 0 169. 8 25. 4 December .. 85. 8 58. 6 169.7 86. 4 1950* January.. . 24. 5 58. 7 59. o 84. 5 168. 2 24. 7 February . - _ _ - _ _ _ 24. 6 167. 1 March3 __ 83. 3 59. 3 24.6 168.5 April 84.5 59.5 4 Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection. 3 Includes deposits in commercial[ banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System. 3 NOTE .—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding, Preliminary estimates. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. End of period 31 FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC The cash surplus of about $ 1.5 billion for the 1st quarter of I960 compares with a surplus of about $ 3.2 billion for the same quarter of 1949, reflecting a decline of about $900 million in receipts and an increase of $ 800 million in payments. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS X CASH BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RECEIPTS CASH PAYMENTS 2 1947 3 EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS a — 2 4 • 1948 3 4 1949 s1 I• • H 1 # • - ii EXCESS OF CASH PAYMENTS 1 2 ,947 3 4 . 2 |94Q 3 4 1 I960 ' 2 |949 3 4 1 2 |95Q 3 4 SOURCE: BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT. [Millions of dollars] Calendar years Calendar year total: 1946 1947 1948 __ . _ --___1949 Quarterly total, not adjusted for seasonal: 1947: First quarter «. Second quarter _ _ _ _ Third quarter Fourth quarter. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1948: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter _ . , „_ Fourth quarter 1949: First quarter. _ _ _ _ _ Second quarter _ Third quarter... Fourth quarter _ _ 1950: First quarter 2_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Federal cash receipts from the public l Federal cash payments to the public 1 41, 426 44, 279 44, 920 41, 346 41, 372 38, 584 36, 954 42, 634 + 54 4-5, 695 + 7,967 — 1,288 14, 345 9, 847 10, 220 9,869 15, 037 10, 238 10, 085 9,560 13, 122 8,814 10, 143 9,267 12, 235 9, 163 10, 628 10, 257 8,536 8,637 9,033 8,798 10, 486 9, 964 11, 389 10, 528 10, 753 10, 759 + 5, 182 — 781 -37 + 1,331 + 6, 400 + 1, 205 + 1, 287 — 925 + 3, 158 —2, 575 — 385 -1,486 + 1,476 Excess of receipts (+) or payments (—) 1 Payments of refunds of Government receipts are now reported as deductions from total receipts; previously, they were reported as expend itures. NOTE.—-Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. 2 Preliminary estimates based on incomplete data. Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U. S. Gov ernment Printing Office, Washington 25, D. C. Price 15 cents per copy; $1.75 per year; $2.25 foreign 32