Full text of Economic Indicators : June 1949
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Joint Committee Print
Economic Indicators
JUNE 1949
Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report
by the Council of Economic Advisers
and printed for the use of
the Joint Committee on the Economic Report
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1949
JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, Chairman
EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Vice Chairman
FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania
WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas
JOHN J. SPARKMAN, Alabama
PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois
WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio
FRANK BUCHANAN, Pennsylvania
JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan
ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania
ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio
RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont
ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah
CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts
FRED E. BERQUIST, Acting Staff Director
JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk
WILLIAM H. MOORE, Economist
To the Members of Congress:
As has been stated in previous issues of Economic Indicators, from the time the Joint Committee on the Economic Report was established its members realized that
one of its' basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture
of current economic trends and developments.
Fortunately, the Joint Committee finds that Economic
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fills this need. While this material was prepared primarily for the use of the President, the Council and other
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Other Members of Congress have also expressed an
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Accordingly, the Joint Committee has, since last July,
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Comments or suggestions with respect to possible
improvements in this presentation will always be
welcome.
Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report.
Letter of Transmittal
Hon. JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Chairman^
Joint Committee on the Economic Report,
United States Congress, Washington, D. C.
DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the
Joint Committee on the Economic Report in your plans to make Economic Indicators
available to the Congress as a whole and to the general public.
In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has
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showing current trends in the Nation's economy.
Thus the Executive Of5.ce is in a better
position to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the
improvement and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services.
We have realized, of course, that this material has a potential usefulness not only to
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Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly
by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and consumer organizations with
whom we regularly consult.
We believe the Joint Committee will perform a service of real value by giving wide
circulation to this material.
Sincerely yours,
/
pf-t^S*^
{'
^ I
^
0
vain/ian.
Vice Chairman.
Contents
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
The Nation's Economic Budget
Page
1
PRICES
Consumers' Prices
Wholesale Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
Stock Prices
2
3
4
5
EMPLOYMENT
Labor Force
Employment in Business and Government
Average Weekly Hours
Work Stoppages
6
7
8
9
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production
Production of Selected Durable Manufactures
Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures
Weekly Production—Selected Indicators
New Construction
New Housing Starts
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
New Corporate Security Issues
Inventories and Sales
Merchandise Exports and Imports
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
PURCHASING POWER
National Income
Corporate Profits
Personal Income.
Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving
Per Capitauncome
Average Hourly Earnings
Average Weekly Earnings
Farm Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Consumer Credit
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
Bank Loans and Investments
Money Supply
Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public
30
31
32
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
A general decline in economic activity during the 1st quarter resulted in about a 3% decline in gross national
product from the level of the 4th quarter of S948, according to revised estimates. All major components of business investment declined significantly.
1948
.w-rw,
TOTAL
4
- TtI h
II
Q
v *u
wa
^ ir ti e
wr
i
{Gross Nationa
EXCESS OF
EXPENDITURES -), RECEIPTS ( + )
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
Product
CONSUMERS
Transfer payments -^v
CONSUMER
SAVING
li;
BUSINESS
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
INTERNATIONAL
EXCESS OF
RECEIPTS
GOVERNMENT
(Federal, state and local)
56.4-^
CASH
DEFICIT
Transfer p a y m e n t s -
1949,
TOTAL
1st
Quarter
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
(Gross National Product)
CONSUMERS
INCOME
~jCONSUMER
-J SAVING
BUSINESS
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
INTERNATIONAL
EXCESS OF
RECEIPTS
GOVERNMENT
(Federal, stole and
CASH
SURPLUS
L/
A N N U A L R A T E S , S E A S O N A L L Y ADJUSTED.
£/ INCLUDES AN A D J U S T M E N T OF -$ 1.8 BILLION IN THE FOURTH Q U A R T E R A N D \ $ 1 . 5 BILLION
SOURCE: SEE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JANUARY 1949, APPENDIX A.
PRICES
CONSUMERS' PRICES
Consumers' prices rose slightly in April as food prices increased seasonally and rents continued to advance.
Prices of apparel and housefurnishings continued to decline.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 AVERAGE
1941
1940
1944
1943
1945
1946
1948
1949
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR,
[1935-39=100]
Period
1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average. „
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average _ _
1948 monthly average
1948: April
All items
_ _
May
June
July
August _ _
September
_
October _
November _ _
December
1949: January
February
March _
April
99. 4
100. 2
105. 2
116. 5
123. 6
125. 5
128. 4
139. 3
159. 2
171. 2
169. 3
170 5
171. 7
173 7
174. 5
174. 5
173. 6
172. 2
171 4
170 9
169 0
169 5
169. 7
Food
95. 2
96. 6
105. 5
123. 9
138. 0
136. 1
139. 1
159. 6
193. 8
210. 2
207. 9
210 9
214. 1
216 8
216. 6
215. 2
211. 5
207. 5
205. 0
204 8
199 7
201 6
202. 8
NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities.
Source: Department of Labor.
Apparel
100. 5
101. 7
106. 3
124. 2
129. 7
138. 8
145. 9
160. 2
185. 8
198. 0
196. 4
197. 5
196. 9
197. 1
199. 7
201. 0
201. 6
201. 4
200. 4
196. 5
195. 1
193. 9
192. 5
Rent
104. 3
104. 6
106. 2
108. 5
108. 0
108. 2
108. 3
108. 6
111. 2
117. 4
116. 3
116 7
117. 0
117. 3
117. 7
118. 5
118. 7
118. 8
119. 5
119. 7
119. 9
120. 1
120. 3
Fuel, electricity, and
refrigeration
House furnishings
99. 0
99. 7
102. 2
105. 4
107. 7
109. 8
110. 3
112. 4
121. 1
133. 9
130. 7
131 8
132. 6
134 8
136. 8
137. 3
137. 8
137. 9
137. 8
138. 2
138 8
138 9
137.4
101. 3
100. 5
107. 3
122. 2
125. 6
136. 4
145. 8
159. 2
184. 4
195. 8
194. 7
193 6
194. 8
195. 9
196. 3
198. 1
198. 8
198. 7
198. 6
196. 5
195 6
193. 8
191. 9
Miscellaneous
100. 7
101. 1
104. 0
110. 9
115. 8
121. 3
124. 1
128. 8
139. 9
149. 9
147. 8
147. 5
147. 5
150. 8
152. 4
152. 7
153. 7
153. 9
154. 0
154. 1
154 1
154. 4
154. 6
WHOLESALE PRICES
Farm and food prices rose during May but industrial prices continued to drift downward.
PERCENT OF 1926 A V E R A G E
PERCENT OF 1926 A V E R A G E
220
220
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF
LABOR.
[1926=100]
All commodities
Period
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1946 monthly average
June
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: April
_.. _ ..
_
__
_ __ _ _ _
May
June
-July
._
August
September _ _
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
October
November „„ _
_ _ _ _ _
December
1949: January
February
March _ _ _
__
April
Week ended:
May 3
10
. _
17
24
31
__ _
__
Farm products
Foods
Other than
farm products and foods
87. 3
98. 8
121. 1
112. 9
152. 1
165, 0
162. 8
163 9
166. 2
168. 7
169. 5
168. 7
165. 2
164. 0
162. 3
160. 6
158. 1
158. 4
156. 9
82. 4
105. 9
148. 9
140. 1
181. 2
188. 3
186. 7
189. 1
196..0
195. 2
191. 0
189. 9
183. 5
180. 8
177. 3
172. 5
168. 3
171. 3
170. 3
82. 7
99. 6
130.7
112. 9
168.7
179. 1
176. 7
177. 4
181. 4
188. 3
189. 5
186. 9
178. 2
174. 3
170. 2
165.8
161. 5
162. 9
162. 9
89.0
95. 5
109.5
105. 6
135. 2
150. 7
148. 7
149. 1
149. 5
151. 1
153. 1
153. 3
153. 2
153. 5
153. 0
152.9
151. 8
150. 8
148. 8
155. 2
155. 9
156. 0
156. 5
156. 1
168. 3
171. 6
172. 0
174. 5
173. 7
161.8
163. 4
163.4
165. 6
165. 9
147. 1
146. 9
146. 8
146. 2
145. 8
NOTE.—The weekly index presented here is a revised index which permits direct comparison with the
monthly index. It is not comparable with the old weekly index which does not permit such a comparison.
Source: Department of La,bor.
PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received by farmers dropped I'/2 percent from April 15th to May 15th, reflecting chiefly seasonal
declines in prices of truck crops and livestock products.
PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE
MONTHLY AVERAGE
PRICES RECEIVED
V
300
^X-
PRICES PAID
(INCL. INTEREST, TAXES)
PARITY RATIO*
1
1939 40
1
1
41
1
42
1
43
44
1
45
I
46
1
47
48
J F M A M J
J A S O N D J
I I I i
F M A M J
1947
I I i I I
J A S O N D . J F M A M J
1948
1949
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Prices paid by
Prices
(includ- Parity ratio 8
received l farmers
ing interest
by farmers
and taxes) 2
Period
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthlv average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average - _
1948 monthly average
1948: April
May
„
__ _
June
_ _ _
July
August
, _ _ _
September
October. _
.. _ _
November
December
_
1949: January
February
March
April
May
1
August 1909-July
2
1910-14=100.
3
___
_ _ _
_
95
124
159
192
195
202
233
278
287
124
132
150
162
169
172
193
231
250
291
289
295
301
293
290
277
271
268
249
250
251
251
251
250
249
248
248
77
94
106
119
116
117
121
120
115
117
116
118
120
117
116
111
JOP
JOS
268
258
261
260
256
248
245
246
246
245
108
105
106
106
104
1914=100.
Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and taxes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
J A S O N D
STOCK PRICES
After remaining stable for most of May, stock prices declined in the last week.
PERCENT
PERCENT OF IS35 - 39 A V E R A G E
175
OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 AVERAGE
175
WEEKLY AVERAGE
150
125
RAILROADS
"K.
V
V
\"
: .*.*
I
193940 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
J
I I
F
M
I
A
I
M
I
J
J
I
A
I
S
I
O
I
N
UTILITIES
^ _\
V-*
1 I
D
J
F
I I I
M
A
M
I I
J
J A
!
S O N
I
I
I
D
J
I I
M
A M
I
I
J
J
1949
1948
1947
!
F
SOURCE. STANDARD AND POOR'S CORPORATION.
[1935-39=100]
Combined
index 1
Period
Weekly average:
1939
1942
1946
1948
1948: April
May
June _
Julv
August
__
September
October.
November
December
1949: January
February
March~__
April
Mav__
Week ended:
May 4
11 _„
18
_
_
25 _ ___ _ _ _ _ _ . . _
June ! _ _ _ _
_ _ _
_ _
_.
_.
_ _.|
j
Industrials
Railroads
Utilities
94 2
69. 4
1 39. 9
124. 4
124. 6
130.2
135. 1
131. 9
127. 1
125. 7
127. 8
120. 4
119. 4
121. 0
117. 2
118. 0
118. 5
117. 7
94 8
71. 3
143. 4
130. 6
130. 8
136. 9
142. 7
138. 9
133. 5
131. 7
134. 3
126. 4
125. 5
127. 3
122. 7
123. 7
124. 2
123. 4
74 7
66. 1
143. 0
114. 7
115. 2
122.6
125. 6
124. 7
119. 7
120. 4
120. 9
108. 8
105. 8
105. 9
99. 6
97. 4
97. 1
95. 8
98 6
61. 3
120. 2
96. 2
96.2
99. 2
100. 6
99. 5
97. 3
97. 3
97. 4
94. 2
92. 9
94. 2
94. 4
95. 3
96. 1
95. 3
1 1 8. 8
1 1 7. 8
118. 4
115. 9
113. 1
124, 7
123. 6
124. 2
121. 3
118. 1
96. 1
95. 1
97. 2
94. 9
90. 8
95. 7
95. 3
95. 5
94. 6
93. 8
1
Combined index prior to June 23, 1948, was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials,
20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads,
and 31 utilities.
Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.
! !
A
S
O
N
D
LABOR FORCE
Unemployment increased moderately in May, counter to the seasonal trend.
to agriculture, increased about 875,000.
Total employment, due
MILLIONS OF PERSONS
MILLIONS OF PERSONS
70
i 70
UNEMPLOYMENT
m
50
N O N A G R I CULTURAL
i
UNEMPLOYMENT— M A G N I F I E D
1944
1946
8
EMPLOYMENT
f
}
t 3
j
!
{
i
SCALE
1947
1947
MONTHLY A V E R A G E
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
SOURCE : DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
(Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over]
Period
Total labor
force, including
armed
forces
Civilian employment
Total
T
In
nonagricultural
industries
In agriculture
Armed
forces
Urieni ployrn en t
1941 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average___
57,
65,
65,
60,
61,
62,
380
890
140
820
608
748
50, 350
53, 960
52, 820
55, 250
58. 027
59, 378
4 ! , 250
4,\ OIC
44, 240
40, 930
40, 76]
51,405
9,
8,
8,
8,
fl,
7,
100
950
580
320
2f>G
973
1, 470
11, 260
11, 280
3, 300
1. 440
1,307
5, 560
670
1, 040
2, 270
2, 141
2,064
1948: April
May
June
July
_
August
September
October
November _
December
61. 760
61, 660
64, 740
65, 135
64,511
63, 578
63, 166
63, 138
62, 828
58, 330
58, 660
61,296
61, 615
61, 245
60,312
60, 134
59, 893
59, 434
50, 883
50, 800
5 1 , 899
52, 4.-";2
52, .Q0]
51, 590
51, 506
51, 932
52, 059
7, 448
7, S61
9, 396
9, 163
8,444
8,723
8. 627
7, 961
7, 375
1,236
1,238
1,261
1,293
1,325
1,366
1, 391
1,414
1,453
2,193
1,761
2, 184
2,227
1,941
1, 899
1, 642
1,831
1,941
1949: January
February
MarchApril _
May
61,
61,
62,
62,
(53,
57,
57,
57,
57,
58,
50,
50,
50,
49.
49,
6,763
6, 993
7, 393
7, 820
8, 974
1,468
1, 508
], 491
1,492
1,469
2, 664
3, 221
3, 1 67
3,016
3,289
546
896
305
337
452
414
168
647
819
694
651
174
254
999
720
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
IN
AND GOVERNMENT
Ths seasonal increases hi construction and trade employment in April practically offset the further declines
in both durable oncl nondurable manufacturing industries.
MILLIONS 0? WAGE
AND S A L A R Y VVORKF.HS
MILLIONS OF WAGE
AND S A L A R Y WORKERS
12
IE
A
NONDURABLE
MANUFACTURING'
•^ FINANCE AND SERVICE-
\ I 1-7GOVERNMENT
^7
TRAN
.NSPORTATION AMD
PUBLIC UTILITIES
CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION-
V
^""^MINING
1939
SOURCE
I94O
1942
1943
1944
/
J F M A M J J A S - O N D
1945
1947
1949
1948
Deportment
(Thousands of wage and salary workers ']
Durable
manufacturing
Period
1939
1943
1946
1947
1948
monthly average _ _ _ ~ _
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average _
monthly average
1948: March
April.
--
_.
Mav
June
July _
August
September
October,
November
December
1949: January
February
March 2 "
April 2
2
_ __ _
_ _ __
__ _
_ _
_ _ _ _
__
_
1
_ _
_
Nondurable
manufacturing
TransportaFi nance and Government
tion and
^(Federal,
service
public
State, local)
utilities
Contract
construction
Mining
720
084
335
846
063
6, 705
7, 322
8, 820
9,450
9, 746
4,
5,
6
6,
6,
610
187
016
278
400
3,
6,
5,
5,
5,
987
049
607
449
658
2, 912
3 619
4 023
4 060
4, 065
1, 150
1, 567
1 661
1/921
2,060
845
917
852
911
925
8, 258
8, 164
8, 114
8, 122
8, 165
8, 188
8, 294
8, 318
8, 303
8, 222
8,011
7, 786
7, 778
7, 993
8, 007
S, 253
8, 403
8, 279
8, 158
8, 061
9, 5Q8
9, 576
9, 617
9 670
9, 646
9, 660
9, 733
9, 889
1 0, 034
10 381
6,
6,
6,
6
6,
6
6,
6,
6.
6
426
472
454
389
399
383
379
364
364
346
5,
5,
5,
5,
5,
5,
5,
5,
5,
5
546
577
624
607
604
650
801
789
714
994
4 032
3, 974
4 042
4 105
4 136
4 139
4 092
4, 091
4 066
4 066
1, 805
1,933
2, 052
2 173
2, 219
2 253
2, 239
2, 206
2, 162
2 079
924
817
935
950
922
952
948
941
938
93£
8,
7,
7,
7,
7.
7,
7,
7,
6
6,
6,
6,
265
272
309
352
5,
5,
5,
5,
761
759
762
773
3 978
3, 956
3, 920
3, 932
1, 906
1,820
1, 838
1,965
92£
922
4,
10,
7,
8,
8,
357
297'
ISO
055
214
005
895
782
('16
5,
7,
7,
7,
8,
Trade
885
879
815
649
9
9,
9,
9,
625
513
531
f 88
$14
9!U
Includes all full- and part-time wa.ge and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending
nearest the loth of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the anned forces. Total derived from this
table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultura! employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 6) which include
proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; anc
which2 are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS
Average weekly hours in most industries continued to decline in March. Preliminary April data for manufacturing
industries show a continuation of this trend.
HOURS PER WEEK
HOURS PER WEEK
ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
RETAIL TRADE
50
50
45
45
Zl.
25
0
40
42
44
46
48
40
42
44
46
48
40
42
44
46
48
40
42
44
4G
4
* SEE NOTE ON TABLE
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF L A B O R .
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[Hours per week, selected industries]
All manufacturing
industries
Period
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
_
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average _
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: March
April
Mav__
_ _
June
July.... __ _ _
August
September
_ _
_
October.
November
December
1949: January 2
_ _ _ _ _
February
_ _
2
March2
__ _ _
April
__ _
1
2
3
_
Retail trade
37 7
40. 6
4n 2
43. 4
40 4
40 3
40 1
40. 4
40 1
39. 9
40 2
39. 8
40 1
39 8
40. 0
39. 8
40 0
39. 5
39 3
39. 0
38 3
Data prior to 1948 not exactly comparable with later data.
Preliminary estimate.
Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
Source: Department of Labor.
43. 0
42. 5
40. 3
40. 3
40. 5
40. 2
40. 1
39. 8
39. 8
39. 9
40. 3
40. 8
41. 0
40. 2
39. 7
39. 5
40. 2
40. 0
40. 0
39. 9
Bituminous
coal mining
27 1
31. 1
43 4
42. 3
41. 6
40 6
38 0
40. 6
3 27 0
40. 3
39 9
34. 2
39. 4
37. 9
38. 6
37. 1
38 5
39. 3
38. 0
36. 3
Building
construction 1
32 6
34 8
39 6
39 0
38 1
37 6
37 3
36 9
36 7
37 0
37 9
37 8
37 8
37 6
37. 3
36 4
37 8
37. 0
36 5
36 2
WORK STOPPAGES
There were no major stoppages in April to cause a loss of working time.
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE
MILLIONS OF M A N - D A Y S IDLE
I 5
15
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
1947
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF L A B O R .
Man-days
idle "
(thousands)
Period
1939
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
monthly average __ _
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average. _ _ _
monthlv average
monthly average
monthly average J
_
_ _
monthly average _ _ _ _ _
1
_ _ _
349
1, 125
_
_
_
__
3,
9,
2,
2,
727
169
667
883
842
6, 440
7,410
4, 080
2, 220
2, 670
2, 1 00
2, 540
2, 060
1, 910
1948: March
April
May
June
July
August _
September
October _ _
November
December _
1949: January 3 1 _ _
February _ _
March 1 _ _. _
April 1
1, 484
1, 921
_
713
__
_ _
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor,
J
J
1949
1948
800
650
3. 600
1 , 800
Man-days idle
as percent of
estimated available working
time
0. 3
.3
.1
.2
.1
.5
1. 4
.4
.4
.8
1.0
.6
.3
.4
.3
.3
.3
.3
.1
.1
.1
.5
m
2
A
S
O
N
D
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
industrial production continued downward in April and May. Preliminary May data indicate that Sower manufacturing output pushed the index about 3 percent b.elow the April level.
250 -
250
200 -
200
150 -
150
100 -
1947
1948
1949
SOURCE:BOARD OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE F E D E R A L RESERVE SYSTEM
[1935-39=100, seasonal!v adjusted]
Points in total index,
1935-39 average for total =100
Indexes, 1 935-30= J 00
1
Manufactures
Manufactures
Total
industrial
Minerals Durable Nondura- Minerals
production Total Durable Nondurable goods
ble goods
goods
goods
Period
192
220
225
100
176
166
> 65
172
177
100
132
137
\?A
149
155
38
1 36
104
73
83
85
47
83
78
77
81
83
15
20
21
21
23
24
195
197
198
192
197
199
202
201
1G9
217
221
222
219
223
225
231
229
231
177
178
179
1 69
177
178
170
178
173
147
162
159
153
159
156
1 58
161
1 56
82
84
84
83
84
85
87
87
87
83
83
84
79
82
.'-'3
84
83
81
22
25
24
23
24
24
24
25
24
198
1 90
193
184
179
227
226
223
213
205
175
1 73
168
201
158
149
149
1?6
M6
144 |
86
86
84
81
78
82
81
79
76
74
23
22
21
22
22
1935-39 monthly average
1943 rr\ on th 1 v a v er aj.. c
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average. _ _ _
1947 monthly average
1948 monthlv average, _ __ _ _
100
239
203
170
187
192
100
258
2-4
177
194
198
1948- April
May
June
_ _
Julv
August
September
„
October _
November
December.
188
192
192
186
191
192
195
1 95
192
191
189
184
179
174
1949: January _ _ _
February
March _ _
April l i
Mav
_
- _
_
Preliminary estimate.
100
360
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE
MANUFACTURES
The April output of oil major durable goods industries except automobiles was below their March levels. The
sharpest drops occurred in iron and steel and machinery.
PERCE NT OF 1935-39 A V E R A G E
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
IRON AND STEEL
LUMBER AND
250
PRODUCTS
250
s
MONTHLY A V E R A G E
200
1 50
100
/
s~\
/Y
/
1
|
M i l l !
40
42
44-
46
200
V
^
150
^
—^
I ! ( | | j | [ 1 j,
1 1 1 1 1 i 1 II 1 1
1 1 1 1 11i i 1 i i
1947
1948
1949
43
^1
100
1
1
40
1
42
MACHINERY
48
1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 I 1 11 1! 11 1 1
1 1i 1 1 1i l 1 1 I
1948
1947
1949
[\
—s
500
*^s^
250
A
// V
A
250
\
\
00
46
|
350
300
f
44
][
5
MONTHLY A V E R A G E
1 50
|
NONFERROUS METALS AND PRODUCTS
350
200
I
JL
200
1
150
XL i j i i i i i i
40 42
1 1 1 1 I 1 i II i 1
11 1 1I 1 1 ! 1 i 1
1947
1948
44 48 48
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II I1
1 i i i j 1| i |
100
1949
40 42
44
46
48
v/
1 1111!11111
"X
1 1 I1 1 1I1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11
1948
1947
1949
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE S Y S T E M .
[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Iron and
steel
Period
1039 monthly average
HMO monthly average
1941 monthly average _
HM2 monthly average
1 943 monthly average
1944 monthly ayerace
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1047 monthly average
1 948 monthly average
1948- March
April
IVIav
June
Julv
_ _ _
August
September
October
November
December
1 949 : January
February
March 1
April i
_
__
__
_
__
_
_ - - -
__
--
-
- __
__
_
_ _ _--
-
__
- --- --
-
-
-
- -_
. __
- -
•
Lumber and
products
Machinery
Nonferrous
metals and
products
114
147
186
199
208
206
133
150
195
208
106
116
134
134
129
125
109
131
143
145
104
136
221
340
443
439
343
240
276
277
U3
139
191
214
267
259
204
157
187
193
207
177
208
208
201
207
221
223
222
151
145
142
140
142
148
143
147
145
143
283
275
273
277
269
271
273
277
277
275
201
200
196
194
185
186
192
192
187
184
228
232
129
123
268
262
183
186
214
233
219
129
125
252
238
183
177
1
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
11
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE
MANUFACTURES
deduction of textiles again declined about 10 percent in April; chemicals also declined again. These declines
were in part seasonal influences, which have not been included in the present adjustment factor.
PERCE NT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS
PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS
300
300
200
200
100
y~-^
0
i i i i i i |_ [ |_
40
42
44
46
•^v~ —v^."\
1 1 1 I 1
48
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 ! 1 1 1 ! i 1 11
1947
1 1i 1111 i 1i1
1948
0
400
300
300
200
20O
^—
i i i i i i t I i
40
42
44
46
y
i i i i I j i i i
40
1949
MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS
o
.—^~-^vHpv
100
400
100
/>
42
44
46
1 1 M
48
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1947
CHEMICAL
»»
•'• <**
/
/
1 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1
i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1
1948
1949
PRODUCTS
— "* •**—**"^"*- -
-s
100
1 1 I 1 1 i 1 i 11 i
1 1 1 1 1 1 ! M 1 1
1947
1948
48
1 I i 1 1 I I l"l 1 l^
IS49
0
I i i i i i i i i
40
42
44
46
48
1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1
1947
1 1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1M i 1I I 111
1948
1949
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Textiles and
products
Period
Manufactured food
products
Chemical
products
1935-39 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
100
153
146
162
163
169
100
185
235
173
193
218
100
145
151
150
157
159
100
384
284
236
251
254
1948: March_
April
M ay
June
July
August
September
October
November _ _ _ _
December
.
175
174
176
174
154
166
168
167
164
15fi
211
213
220
221
217
222
207
217
227
230
158
157
159
163
160
154
163
161
159
158
250
249
249
256
251
259
257
255
257
257
160
157
142
128
228
221
214
210
160
162
163
163
257
250
246
235
1949: January.
Februarv
March 2.
April 1
1
_
_
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
12
Petroleum
and coal
products
WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORS
Steei production in May was less than in April, and during the 1st week in June was scheduled below 95 percent of
capacity for the first time this year. Automobile production in May was curtailed by the Ford strike. Output
of electric power and bituminous coal also dropped.
MILLIONS OF TONS
3
BILLIONS OF KILOV/ATT HOURS
7.0
STEEL
ELECTRIC POWER
1949
1949
1947
\
S
O
MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS
3.0
F
M
SOURCES: AMERICAN
i
r
i
I
D
THOUSANDS
160
A
M
S
J
IRON AND STEEL
Weekly average:
1947
1948
_
Steel
(thousands of
net tons)
_
Week ended:
1948: Mav 1 __
8
15 _
22
29 _
June 5
_- __
_ _ __
Mav 7
14 _
21
28 _
June 4
11
O
N
D
INSTITUTE, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, WARDS AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS.
Period
1949:
N
.
_
- _
_ _
_
__
-
_
Bituminous
Electric power,
coal
by utilities
(thousands of
(millions of
kilowatt-hours) short tons) l
Cars and
trucks
(number)
1, 637
1, 700
4, 821
5, 300
2,008
1, 906
90, 860
100, 670
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
561
640
700
720
745
730
5,
5,
5,
5,
5,
4,
042
087
109
085
076
845
2,
2,
2,
2,
2,
2,
335
122
208
285
278
361
97, 409
79, 785
79, 688
85, 855
88, 441
69, 947
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
794
774
762
735
692
643
5,
5,
5,
5,
284
257
255
270
1,
1,
1,
1,
867
844
856
886
123, 577
112, 557
110, 630
111, 285
91, 639
1
Daily average for week.
Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Automotive Reports.
13
NEW CONSTRUCTION
Both private and public construction activity rose more than seasonally in May for the 3rd consecutive month,
reaching a total of $1.6 billion. The increase in public construction was proportionately more than in private.
MILLIONS
OF DOLLARS
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2,OOO
2,000
1,500
1,500
I
1\
—
1,000
jII
I
ft
1039
1942
1944
1946
1947
1948
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
^INCLUDES PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
[Millions of dollars]
Private construction
Total new
construction
Period
1939 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average _
1948 monthly average
1948: March
April
May
_
June
July
August
September
October
November _ _
December
1949: January
February
March
April2
Mav 2 _ _ _ _ _
1
2
__ _
__
_ _
_ _
. ___
526
1, 118
345
871
1, 194
1,565
1, 226
1, 378
1,572
1, 754
1,874
1, 934
1,901
1, 814
1,646
1,447
1, 269
1, 148
1, 248
1,368
1,568
Total
private
Residential
(nonfarm)
317
251
152
688
932
1,214
1,001
1,099
1,222
1, 348
1,423
1,454
1,427
1,355
1, 256
1, 129
977
880
928
987
1, 111
Includes public residential construction.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.
176
110
45
265
438
602
490
550
625
682
707
720
707
670
615
547
450
375
400
440
530
Other
141
141
107
422
493
612
511
549
597
666
716
734
720
685
641
582
527
505
528
547
581
Federal,
State, and
local 1
208
867
193
184
262
351
225
279
350
406
451
480
474
459
390
318
292
268
320
381
457
N
D
NEW HOUSING STARTS
About 86,000 new permanent dwelling units were started in April-a gain of 24,000 units over March.
This is a 39 percent increase in comparison with the 30 percent increase which occurred in April 1948
T H O U S A N D S OF UNITS
THOUSANDS OF UNITS
125
125
75
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
CIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
New nonfarm units started
Month
1947
January
February
March
April _ _
_ _ __
_
_ _ _ _ _ _
_
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
_
_
Total
Monthly average
_
1948
39, 300
42, 800
56, 000
67, 100
72, 900
77, 200
81, 100
86, 300
93, 800
94, 000
79, 700
58, 800
53, 500
50, 100
76, 400
99, 500
100, 300
97, 800
95, 000
86, 600
82, 200
73, 400
63, 600
52, 900
849, 000
931, 300
70, 750
77, 600
1949
50, 000
1
46, 000
1
62, 000
1
86, 000
1
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.
15
EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT
AND EQUIPMENT
SEC-Commerce survey made in January shows that nonagricultural business expenditures for plant and equipment in
2nd quarter of 1949 are expected to be slightly lower than in same quarter of 1948. It also shows that substantial
declines in all fields except electric and gas utilities and mining are anticipated in 2nd half of this year.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25
25
ANNUAL TOTALS
TRANSPORTATION AND
ELECTRIC AND GAS
FUTILITIES
1939
1941
1945
SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
C O U N C I L OF E C O N O M I C ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal]
Period
Total »
Manufacturing
Mining
Transportation
Railroad
1939
1941
1945
1946
1947
1948 3
1949
1947: First quarter. _
Second quarter _ _ _
.
Third quarter
_ _
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter. ___ _
_
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter 3 3
Second quarter
_ _ _
Second half 3
_ _ _ _
_
1
Excludes agriculture.
2
Includes trade, service,
3
5,200
8, 190
6, 630
12, 040
16, 180
19, 230
18, 310
12, 640
15, 760
16, 560
19, 760
16, 680
19,280
19, 320
21, 640
18, 720
19, 120
17, 700
1,930
3,400
3,210
5,910
7,460
8,340
7, 240
5,800
7,400
7,480
9, 160
7,200
8,560
8,360
9, 280
7, 760
7,440
6, 880
380
680
440
560
690
800
820
600
640
720
840
720
800
800
880
720
760
900
280
560
550
570
910
1,320
1,450
640
' 880
920
1,200
1,080
1,240
1,320
1, 640
1,560
1,640
1,300
Electric and
gas utilities
Other
280
340
320
660
800
700
650
720
920
800
760
720
760
680
680
640
720
620
480
710
630
1,040
1,900
2,680
3, 130
1,320
1,800
2,000
2,480
2,000
2,560
2,760
3,400
2,880
3, 160
3,240
Commercial
and miscellaneous 2
1,850
2,490
1,480
3,300
4, 430
5,390
5,010
3,600
4, 120
4,640
5,360
4,960
5,360
5,440
5,760
5, 160
5, 440
4,720
finance, and communication.
Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business.
NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to
current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other
data.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted).
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
1ft
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES
Tola! proceeds-from new corporate security issues fell heavily in the 1st quarter reflecting a decline in both
fixed and working capital financing.
BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S
BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S
3.0
3. O
2. 5
1.5
1939
SOURCE:
1943
1946
1947
1948
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION.
[Millions of dollars]
Proposed uses of net proceeds
Estimated
net proceeds
Period
New money
Total
1939
1943
1945
1946
1947
1948
quarterly average,
quarterly average
quarterly average
quarterly average
quarterly average
quarterly average
__
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter 2
_ _ _
_
_ _
Working
capital
Retirement
of debt and
stock »
529
287
475
689
617
604
81
77
270
820
I, 148
I, 392
43
35
159
529
852
1,035
39
42
111
291
296
357
448
210
1,206
869
469
212
1, 374
2, 311
884
2, 000
692
1 , 654
192
347
490
310
1. 614
1, 663
1,267
1 , 873
1,400
1, 353
1, 045
1, 767
845
1, 080
764
1,451
555
274
281
316
214
309
221
105
1, 057
851
699
152
206
1,
1,
1.
1,
1947: Third quarter
Fourth quarter
Plant and
equipment
1
2
Includes small amount for other purposes.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.
17
INVENTORIES AND SALES
Vlanufacturers,' retailers', and wholesalers' inventories declined in value in April. Sales of manufacturers
and wholesalers in April were substantially below both the March 1949 and the April 1948 levels.
BILL IONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
WHOLESALE
RETAIL
20
20
INVEfv T( JRIES
\y
/*
x sy ,L :s
1 0
.*
1 0
•«•*- *-
/' "•"^y\t
•Sd"^
•**y~~
\
^
T
L
•
•*
*
\>p*-<"^"T7rr^ i NVECJT( )RIES
0
1 1 1 1 i i i i i
40
42
44
46
48
11 i i i 1 i i i 1 i
i i II i i i i i iI
1948
1949
1947
1
0
1
40
BILL IONS OF DOLLARS
1
1
42
1
I
1
44
1
111111111M
1
46
48
1 M
1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1
1947
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1948
M
1949
PERCE MT OF 1935-1939 AVERAGE
MANUFACTURING
DEPARTMENT STORES
40
400
MONTHLY AVERAGE
INVElv TI DRIES
V
30
\
1
«.
A
.•••*
U
300
^s*
s^
\
VC"
*••.••**
/\.../
20
1 0
0
/ /INVEf^ TC)RIES
rU
j
40
V^v^VA
s/
/
1 1 1
200
l ]
42
1 00
I ! 1 1
44
46
J^
/
LEIS
1 1 J L 1 I 1 1 1 1 1
48
1947
1948
1
0
1
40
1949
1
1
42
1
1
44
1
46
I
1
48
M 1 1 i 11 1i i l
! 1 1i 1 i 1 1 1 1 1
1947
1948
1 1 I 1 1 1 II
1 1 1
1949
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FE DERAL RES ERVE SYSTEM
Inventories
3
Manufacturing l
Retail 2
Wholesale 1
Period
Sales
4
Inventories
3
Sales 4
Inventories 3
Sales 4
_
_
_ _ _ _
_ _ _
_
_ _
_ _ _
_
_
__
3,200
4, 151
3, 577
4, 216
5, 823
7, 545
8,315
7,777
7, 801
7, 953
7,930
8, 100
8, 243
8, 400
8, 507
8,315
8, 527
8. 567
8, 453
S, 157
2, 505
3, 650
4, 330
4, 777
6, 1 38
7, 304
7,867
7, 652
7, 389
7,766
7,796
8, 161
8, 286
8,376
8, 242
8, 196
7, 163
6, 802
7, 489
6, 958
5, 502
7,620
7, 350
7, 502
11,049
12, 953
14, 556
13, 907
13, 951
14, 065
14, 080
14, 145
14, 531
14, 576
14, 779
14, 556
14, 107
13,952
14, 220
13, 789
3, 504
4,624
5, 310
6, 387
8, 399
9, 860
10, 784
10, 891
10, 620
10, 862
10, 857
10,893
10, 968
10, 894
10, 771
11,062
10, 615
10,588
10, 620
10, 719
Inventories
Sales
1935-39 = 100, seasonally
adjusted 5
Millions of dollars
1939
1941
_ _ _ _ _
1943
1945
1946
1947
__ __
1948
1048: April
_ „_
May
June
July
August- _
September
October
November
December ._
1949; January 6 ~February
March 6 ._
_
April 8
Department stores
11, 516
17, 024
19, 897
17, 924
23, 435
28, 020
31, 766
29, 161
29, 437
29, 727
30, 236
30, 429
30, 710
30, 848
31,225
31, 766
31, 998
32, 065
31, 793
31, 363
5, 112
8, 172
12, 603
12, 371
12,020
15, 671
17, 593
17, 229
16, 777
17, 871
16, 403
18, 169
18, 781
18, 807
17, 987
18, 195
16, 859
16, 427
18, 112
16, 737
102
131
155
166
213
255
292
306
297
285
275
268
275
283
303
305
284
285
291
2R2
106
133
168
207
264
286
302
306
311
312
316
312
312
306
287
310
287
274
270
5
Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for
month and retail book value of inventories, end of period.
The sales' figures are being revised and are not available
at this time.
Sources: Department of Commerce and BoardW Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
* Preliminary estimate.
1
1
18
Not adjusted for seasonal variation.
Adjusted for seasonal variation.
3
4
Book value, end of period.
Monthly average for]year and total
for month.
MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
Exports remained unchanged in April but imports fell 15 percent to the lowest level since April 1948.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1600
1,600
-
1,400 -
1,400
1,200
1,200
1,000 -
- 1,000
800
800
- GOO
600 -
400
400
- 200
200 ~
1936-38
1943
1946
M
1947
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
5
0
N
D
RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, AND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AREAS.
RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMEf^T OF THE NAVY
[Millions of dollars]
Period
1936-38 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: February
March
__
April
M ay
June
.
July
August
September— _
October
November
December
__ __
1949: Jamiarv..
February
March
April _
_
Exports *
40
798
531
439
801
461
1, 284
582
666
528
549
616
558
598
558
597
550
721
504
473
592
553
398
461
387
368
423
269
563
1 . 080
1. 029
1 152
1, 148
589
568
632
534
497
461
520
(U4
877
849
1, 278
1, 051
__.
_
_ _
_ _
__ _
_ _ _ _ _
Excess of
exports
207
282
346
410
478
589
247
1, 080
_ _ __
Imports *
1,
1,
1
1
1,
1,
086
138
120
102
014
020
986
926
1, 020
819
1
s
Recorded merchandise exports, including reexpoits, and civilian supplies for occupied areas.
Recorded geueial merchandise imports.
Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the'.,Army, and Deparinm:it_of t'he'.Navy..
19
PURCHASING POWER
NATIONAL INCOME
National income declined in the 1st quarter of 1949, but was still above the rates for the first half
of 1948.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
ANNUAL TOTALS
TOTAL
NATIONAL
INCOME
> PROPRIETORS 1 AND
'';• RENTAL
INCOME£'Cv/>;<>y^<</X-vX•'///.•
>-•-•--".• ,e -•• • -•••-•• • .'•- • - •VN. *v'. • yv*. *> *, •»s VvC'v' / ^V .*.'./.'.'./.._•."
CO M P ENS AT 16 N'' OF
1946
1947
2
1948
1947
3
2
1948
3
1949
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
[Billions of dollars]
Total
national
income
Period
1939
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
72. 5
182. 4
181. 7
179. 3
202. 5
224.9
__
Corporate profits and inventory
valuation adjustment
Compensation of
employees
Proprietors'
and rental
income
Net interest
47. 8
121. 1
122. 9
117. 3
127. 5
139. 4
14, 7
34. 1
36. 0
41. 8
46. 0
50. 9
4. 2
3. 1
3.0
3. 4
4. 3
4. 9
Total
5. 8
24.0
19. 8
16. 8
24. 7
29. 8
Profits
before
taxes
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
6. 5
24. 3
20. 4
21. 8
29. 8
32. S
0 7
—. 3
_. 6
-5.0
-5. 1
-3.0
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter _
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter 1 1
2
_ __
__ _
__
2
200. 6
212. 8
127. 6
1 32. 2
44. 4
48. 6
4. 4
4. 5
24. 3
27. 5
29. 1
32. 4
-4. 8
-4. 9
213. 9
222. 3
228. 2
235. 6
134. 0
13G. 3
142. 4
144. 7
49. 9
51. 6
50. 6
51. 4
4. 7
4. 8
5.0
5. 2
25. 3
29. fi
30. 2
34, 3
-5.3
-2. 5
-3. 9
— .4
228. 0
141. 9
50. 0
5.3
30. 5
32. 1
34. 0
34. 7
2
2S. 8
Preliminary estimates.
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
20 Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Federal
2
30. 7
2
+1.9
CORPORATE PROFITS
Corporate profits dropped in the 1st quarter of 1949, reflecting a decline in sales and prices.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
PROFITS BEFORE T A X E S "
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED).
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Corporate
profits
before taxes
Period
1929
1939
1943
1946
1947
1948
9.8
6.5
24.5
21. 8
29.8
32. 8
-
Corporate
tax
liability
1.4
1.5
14. 2
9.0
11.7
12. 8
Corporate profits after taxes
Total
8. 4
5. 0
10. 4
12.8
18. 1
20. 1
Dividend
payments
5.8
3.8
4. 5
5. 6
6.9
7.8
Undistributed
profits
2. 6
1.2
5. 9
7.2
11.2
12.3
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: Third quarter
Fourth quarter .
1948: First quarter.
Second quarter
Third quarter _
Fourth quarter
1949 : First quarter 1
_ _ _ _
-_
_
29. 1
32. 4
11. 4
12.7
17.7
19.7
6.9
7. 1
10.8
12.6
30. 5
32. 1
34.0
34.7
28. 8
11. 8
12. 5
13. 3
13. 5
11. 6
18.7
19. 6
20.8
21. 2
17.2
7. 4
7. 4
7.7
8.3
8.3
11.3
12. 2
13. 1
12.9
8.9
1
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on preliminary data.
NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment.
taxes and inventory valuation adjustment.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).
See p. 20 for profits before
21
PERSONAL INCOME
Personal Income declined from March to April but at a slower rate than during the 1st quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
250
ANNUAL RATES,SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
200
PROPRIETORS' AND RENTAL INCOME
I 5o
1939
1944
1346 !947
J
1948
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
3
0
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
[Billions of dollars]
Total
personal
income
Period
1939
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
__
_
_ _ ------
- --
72. 6
164. 5
170.3
178. 1
1 95. 2
213. 6
Salaries, wages, Proprietors'
and rental
and other
labor income
income
45.7
116. 1
116.8
111. 4
121. 9
134. 3
14. 7
34. 1
36. 0
41, 8
46.0
50. 9
security
Dividends SocialGI
payand interest andments
9. 2
10. 6
11. 4
13.5
15. 6
17.2
3.0
3. 6
6. 2
11. 4
11.7
11. 1
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948' February
March
April
_
_
_
-
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1949' January
February „
Marchl
April
1
-
_
__ _ _ _
_
-- _
206. 4
205.7
208. 6
209- 2
214. 4
214. 8
216. 7
217. 3
218. 5
219. 9
221. 0
219. 2
216. 3
214. 6
213. 6
128. 8
128. 5
128. 8
131. 0
133. 4
135. 5
138. 0
138. 8
139. 6
140. 1
139. 8
138.4
136. 8
134. 8
135. 3
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
49. 6
48. 4
51. 2
50. 4
53. 0
51. 2
50. 3
50. 4
50.7
51.4
52. 1
51. 4
49. 7
49. 1
48.0
16. 6
16. 6
16. 7
16. 8
16.9
17. 0
17.3
17. 5
17.8
18. 1
18.4
18.3
18. 3
18.3
18.
11. 4
12. 2
11. 9
11.0
11. 1
11. 1
11. 1
10. 6
10. 4
10. 3
10. 7
11. 1
11. 5
12.4
12. 1
S
O
N
D
CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING
In the 1st quarter of 1949, consumer spending declined for the first time since the war period.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
200
100
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
[Billions of dollars]
1939
1940
1941
1942
1 943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
Less: Personal
consumption
expenditures
Disposable
personal
income l
Period
._
._
_ _ _ _ _ _
__~.
_ _ _ _ _ - ...
. _
_
_
70. 2
75. 7
92. 0
116. 2
331. 6
145. 0
149. 4
159. 2
1 73. G
192. 6
Equals: Personal saving
67. 5
72. 1
82. 3
90. 8
101. 6
111. 4
122. 8
147. 4
164. 8
177. 7
2. 7
3. 7
9. 8
25. 4
30. 0
34. 2
26. 6
11. 8
8. 8
14. 9
Annual irates, seasonally adjusted
1947- Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948' First quarter
Second quarter
'.Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter
2
_ _
-
_
__ _
_
_
__
__
_ _ _ _ _ _ _
175. 0
180. 9
165. 6
171. 1
183.
190.
196.
199.
172.
177.
180.
181.
9
2
2
4
197. 8
9. 4
9. 7
5
3
1
0
11. 4
12. 9
16. 1
18. 4
176. 6
21 2
1
2
Income less taxes.
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
23
PER CAPITA INCOME*
A decrease in prices during the 1st quarter of 1949 more
than offset the decrease in per capita
income. This resulted in a small increase in the real purchasing power of
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
2
3
1947
1948
4
consumers,
1
2
3
1948
4
1
2
3
1949
4
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCES; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
Per capita disposable personal
income *
Period
Current
dollars
1939
1940
1941
1942
1 943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
-
-_--- --- - _ - , - _
-
_-_
.
-_
-
_ .
__-
-_ _ _.
- --
-__
_ _
_
-
-_
__
_ _ _ _ _ _ _
---------
$536
574
691
863
964
1,054
1,070
1, 127
1, 205
1,313
1948 dollars 3
$923
981
1, 125
1, 256
1, 306
1, 391
1,374
1,351
1,294
1, 313
Annual rates, seasonally
adjusted
1947' Third quarter
Fourth Quarter
1948' First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949: First Quarter 4 _ _ _
1
2
3
_
__
_ _
_ __
-
_ _ __
- -
$1,212
1,246
1,263
1, 286
1,318
I , 351
1, 334
$1, 291
1,291
1, 289
1, 291
1,295
1, 342
1, 345
Consumers'
price index 3
1948 = 100
58. 1
58. 5
61. 4
68. 7
73. 8
75. 8
77. 9
83. 4
93. 1
100. 0
Not adjusted
for seasonal
variation
93.9
96. 5
98.0
99. 6
101. 8
100. 7
99.2
Income less taxes.
Current dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base 1948—100.
The consumers' price index has been roughly adjusted to take account of the understatement from
December 1941-February 1947. This adjustment is in line with the report of the Mitchell Committee, The
unadjusted index will be found on page 2.
4
Preliminary estimates.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS
Average hourly earnings continued their decrease in March. Preliminary April data for manufacturing
industries show little change from March earnings.
DOLLARS PER HOUR
DOLLARS PER HOUR
RETAIL TRADE
ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
2.00
2.00
"1948 DOLLARS*
1948 DOLLARS*
•sotir;^:
.50
n[ I l"
0
40 42 44 46 48
40 42 44 46 48
40 42 44 46 48
40 42 44 46 48
1948
1949
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT CF LABOR
[Selected industries]
Manufacturing
Period
Current
dollars
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average _ _ _ _
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
_ _ _
1 946 monthly average
1947 monthly average _ _ _ _ _
1948 monthly average
1948- March
April
May
June
July
_.
August
September
October
November. _ _
December
1949" January 3
February
March 3
April 3 _
- -- ~
__
_~
__
_ _ _ _ _
1
2
3
4
Retail trade
1948
dollars 3
Current
dollars
Bituminous coal mining
1948
dollars 2
$0. 633
. 729
1. 019
1.023
.1.084
1.221
1. 327
$1. 090
1. 187
1.381
1.313
1. 230
1. 311
1. 327
$0. 536
. 568
. 724
.773
. 878
.991
1.067
$0. 923
. 925
. 981
. 992
1. 053
1. 064
1.067
1.289
.292
. 301
. 316
. 332
.349
. 362
.366
. 372
.376
1. 322
.306
. 306
. 312
. 312
.324
. 337
. 347
1.364
1. 375
1. 044
.055
.064
.070
1.077
,080
. 086
I. 080
1. 084
1.072
1.071
.067
.068
. 067
. 061
. 060
.066
. 065
. 078
.071
3.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1. 110
1. 104
1. 102
1. 112
1. 119
1. 113
380
377
375
374
383
395
389
386
Current
dollars
$0. 886
. 993
1. 186
1. 240
]. 401
1. 633
1. 899
4
. 842
.821
. 841
. 850
. 936
. 967
. 970
, 959
. 951
. 960
. 949
1. 964
1. 964
__ __ _
Data prior to 1948 not exactly comparable with later data.
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1948= 100. See note 3 to table on page 24.
Preliminary estimate.
Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Source: Department of Labor.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
1948
dollars 2
Current
dollars
$0.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1948
dollars 2
932
010
319
379
478
681
848
$1. 604
1. 645
1.787
1. 770
1. 772
1. 806
1. 848
1. 889
1. 841
1. 848
I. 844
1. 907
!.. 930
I. 933
1. 932
1. 939
1. 958
1.786.
1.. 804
1. 815
L 836
I. 862
1. 874
I. 895
1. 892
1. 906
1. 915
1.832
.824
.822
.830
.834
.839
.860
. 866
I. 895
1. 913
1. 953
1. 990
1. 984
1. 918
1. 930
1. 926
1.922
1. 955
1. 945
$1. 525
1. 617
1. 607
1. 592
1. 680
1. 754
1. 899
4
Building construction *
AVERAGE
EA RNIWIV^O
Because of shorter hours and lower hourly earnings, average weekly earnings in March dropped again. Manufacturing earnings were still lower in April, nearly $ 2.50 b elow the record level of $55.01 reached last
December.
DOL L A R S PER WEEK
OOL - A R S PER WEEK
MANUFACTURING
A
60
/
RETAIL T R A D E
60
\ I 9 4 8 C )0 LIARS**
/
%>">^
1948 D o L L A R S * *
1
4
4O
J
..
—j.
" C UR RET? ' [) O L L A R S
..
rr" -
40
f
:-:o
20
!
1
40
L_L J. I J.
42
44
*°**CU R R E N"' D O L L A R S
|
MONTHLY A V E R A G E
0
m^***
L 1
46
_1 ! 1 1 1
48
M i l l
! I I I I ! 1 II 1 1
1947
M i l l
1948
1 M
1 1
0
I ! ! JI
40
1949
42
44
46
48
too
1948 D 01. L A R S * *
xX
7
0
1949
*«ft
^^^^^
60
1
-'"' /-"A
/' CURRENT
40
20
1
I948 D 0 _ L A R S * *
*%C!* •*-*•/
:
/ C U R R E N " • [)OLLARS
I I M
1948
MONTHLY AVERAGE
?
J
1 i i 1 1
80
~ "rf ^^fv--J^S
\***
60
' 1. J i 1
1947
BUILDING CONSTRUCTION 1 "
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
100
80
*£*
^p«——***WW
/"
[D O L L A R S
40
S
S
. - ..
i i I i i I j I 1
40
42
44
46
1 1 M 1
48
_ L
20
II 1 ! 1 ! I I 1 II
1947
Ml)
1948
Mill
0
1949
f
40
T SEt N0i<
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
j
-
I
i
42
I
|
44
|
[
46
|
l_i M L 1 1 M i !
! 1 .' i I 1 i 1 L I 1
IS47
1948
48
1 1 II !
M M !
1949
^ T~pl---
[Selected industries]
Manufacturing
Period
Current
dollars
1948
dollars 2
Retail trade
Current
dollars
1948
dollars 2
Bituminous coal mining
Current
dollars
$21. 17
$36. 44
$23. 88
$41. 07
$23, 86
30.86
21. 94
35. 73
48. 18
29. 58
36. 02
51.27
26. 58
62. 44
46. 08
52.25
36. 34
56. 98
28. 31
44.39
58.03
39. 03
52. 45
32. 55
43. 74
66. 86
36. 67
39. 39
52. 90
49.25
72.57
39. 98
53. 15
39.98
53. 15
74.84
39. 89
38. 89
52. 07
53.41
4
39. 71
49. 53
52. 37
39.27
51.79
74.08
39. 84
40. 00
51. 86
52.07
May
73. 87
40. 40
52. 69
40.52
52.85
June _- _ _ _ _ _ _
67. 62
40. 58
41. 19
52. 95
52. 17
Julv
40.42
78. 10
53. 04
54. 05
41. 19
August _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
75.
51
39.
73
40.
48
54.
19
53.
18
September
76. 40
39.76
40. 32
53. 90
54. 65
October
_ _ _
73. 52
39. 43
54. 56
39. 67
54. 23
November
40.62
75.79
40.58
54.96
55.01
December
_ _ _ _ _ _
76.84
54.62
41. 87
41. 79
54. 51
1949" January
_
42. 11
41. 56
74.31
54. 83
54. 12
Februarv
•*
3
68. 41
54.
17
41.
90
41.48
53. 63
March3
_ _ _ _ _
53.
10
52.
62
April -_
_-_
1
Data prior io 1948 not exactly comparable \vith later data.
2
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1948=100. See note 3 to table on page 24.
3
Preliminary estimates.
4
Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
Digitized forSource:
FRASER
Department of Labor.
1939 monthly
1941 monthly
1944 monthly
1945 monthly
1946 monthly
1947 monthlv
1948 monthly
1948* March
April
average - average
average
_
average
average. _
_
average
average- _ _ _ _
_ _ _
1948
dollars 2
$41. 10
50.26
69.47
67.07
69. 58
71. 81
72. 57
76.76
4
50. 08
74. 38
73. 65
66. 62
76. 64
74. 10
75. 34
73.08
75.71
76. 99
75. 29
69. 10
Building construction l
Current
dollars
$30. 39
35. 14
52. 18
53.73
56. 24
63. 30
68.85
65.87
66.45
67.22
69. 53
70.47
70. 91
71.29
70.59
69.39
72.33
70. 88
70. 53
69.66
1948
dollars 2
$52. 31
57.23
70.70
68.97
67.43
67.99
68.85
67.56
67. 19
67.49
69.32
69. 43
69.59
69.96
69.62
68.98
72.26
71.02
71.46
70.36
FARM INCOME
Farmers' cash receipts in April were a little lower than in March and around 10 percent beSow receipts in
April of last year.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4
MONTHLY
AVERAGE
.-1948 DOLLARS
CURRENT DOLLARS*
1939
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
J F M A M J J A S O N D J - F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
Period
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average .
_ _ _ _
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average _
___
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average. _ _ _
__
1948 monthly average
1948- March
April
__„_
May
t J- - - - - - - June -___ _ _ _ _ ___
July
August
September.
_ _ __
_
October
November. _ _ _
_
December
1949: January
February
March 4 _
April 4
_
_ _
—
_
--
Farm income
(millions of
current
dollars) 1
Prices paid by
farmers (incl.
interest and
taxes) 1948=
100 2
724
981
1 310
1 , 678
1 , 765
1, 857
2, 110
2, 542
2 609
1 932
2, 075
2 119
2, 437
2 693
2 722
3, 132
3 714
3, 314
2, 740
2 383
1, 783
1, 973
1. 853
49 8
53 0
60. 2
65. 1
67. 9
69. 1
77. 5
92. 8
100. 0
99. 2
100. 0
100. 4
100. 8
100 8
100. 8
100. 4
100. 0
99. 2
99. 6
99. 6
98. 4
98. 8
98. 8
Farm income
(millions of
1948 dollars) 3
1,454
L, 851
2, 226
2, 578
2, 599
2,687
2, 723
2,739
2, 609
1, 948
2, 075
2, 111
2,418
2, 672
2, 700
3, 120
3, 714
3,341
2, 751
2,393
1,812
1, 997
1,876
1
2
3
4
Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments.
Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1948 = 100.
Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1948=100.
Preliminary estimates.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
9.7
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Expenditures for both durable and non durable goods dropped in the 1st quarter, partly as a result of a decrease in prices.
BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S
B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS
200
200
1939
SOURCE:
1944
DEPARTMENT
1946
1947
1948
OF COMMERCE
[Billions of dollars]
Personal consumption expenditures
Period
Nondurable
goods
Total
67. 5
111. 4
122. 8
147.4
164. 8
177. 7
1939
1944_.
1945
1946_.
1947
1948
35. 3
67. 5
75.4
87. 5
96.5
103. 6
Durable
goods
6. 7
6. 9
8. 3
16.2
21. 0
22. 7
Services
25. 5
37 0
39.2
43. 6
47.3
51. 4
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1 947 : Third quarter _
Fourth quarter
_ ,
165. 6
171. 1
96. 8
100.2
21. 1
22. 1
47.7
48. R
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
_ _
__
172. 5
177. 3
180. 1
181.0
.101.
103.
104.
105.
4
7
3
1
21. 3
22.8
23. 7
22. 9
49. 8
50. 8
52. 1
53. 0
176.6
101.4
21. 5
53.7
1949: First quarter
l
__
_ _ _ _
_ __
1
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).
CONSUMER CREDIT
The rise in consumer credit in April was somewhat larger than the March-April rise of 1948.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2 0
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2 0
1943
1946
1947
1947
END OF YEAR
1948
END OF MONTH
SOURCE: B O A R D OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL R E S E R V E SYSTEM.
[Millions of dollars]
Total
consumer
credit
outstanding
End of period
1
2
Other
consumer
credit 1
1, 267
175
544
1, 151
1,961
3, 1.57
1, 826
3,456
5,283
6, 639
1 , 544
1, 498
3,054
3, 612
3, 854
2, 001
1,879
3, 137
3,627
3, 865
_ ___
13, 805
14, 059
14, 311
14, 669
14, 723
14, 916
15, 231
15, 518
15, 739
16, 319
6, 821
7, 094
7, 318
7, 533
7, 738
7, 972
8, 190
8,233
8, 322
8,600
1, 367
1,468
1, 536
1, 602
1, 689
1, 781
1, 858
1, 889
1, 922
1, 961
5, 454
5, 626
5,782
5; 931
6,049
6, 191
6, 332
G, 344
6, 400
6,639
3,275
3, 236
3,245
3, 352
3, 185
3, 130
3, 227
3, 457
3,557
3,854
3,709
3,729
3,748
3,784
3, 800
3, 814
3,814
3,828
3,860
3S 865
_ _ __
15, 749
15, 332
15, 339
15, 626
8,
8,
8,
8,
1,965
1,996
2, 085
2, 231
6,460
6,343
6, 331
6,392
3,457
3, 176
3, 148
3,258
3,867
3,817
3,775
3,745
~ _ _
-
Charge
accounts
424
001
000
434
600
May
_
Other sale
credit and
loans
4,
2,
4,
6,
8,
1948: March
April
1949* January
Februarv
March 2
April 2
Total
Automobile
sale
credit
7,969
f>, 378
10, 191
13,673
16,319
1939
1943
1946
1947
1948
June
July
_
August
September
October
November
December
Instalment credit
_ ._
425
339
416
623
Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit.
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS
After a slight contraction during the first quarter of the year., bank loans fell sharply in April.
decline of SI billion was almost entirely in loans of city banks to business concerns.
The
ONS OF D O L L A R S
125 -
125
TTTTTT
100 —
100
75 -
50
25 -
1
||
111
%
9SV!x
%
1
25
>
If
|
1
1929 1939
1945
1947
END OF Y E A R
1949
1948
END OF MONTH
PR£L IMINA RY ES TIM A TE
[Billions of dollars]
End of period
1929
1939
1945.
1946
1947
1948
1948: March
ApriL
May ^
June
July _
August
September...
October
November. _ _
December...
1949: January
February
March
April i
_
1
_
_ _ _
__
_ _
_
_
_
Preliminary estimates.
__
_
__
___
.. _
_ _ _ _ _ _ _
_
_ _ _ _ _ _ _
Investments
Total
loans and
investments
Bank loans
49. 5
40. 7
124. 0
114. 0
116. 4
114 3
113. 6
114. 3
114. 5
113. 9
114, 8
115. 1
113. 6
114. 1
114. 2
114. 3
114. 4
113. 4
112. 4
112. 5
36. 0
17.2
26. 1
31. 1
38. 1
42. 7
38. 9
38. 8
39. 4
39. 9
40. 1
40. 6
41.7
41. 6
42. 3
42. 7
42.4
42. 0
42. 3
41. 3
Total
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
13. 5
23.4
97. 9
82.9
78.3
71. 6
74. 7
75.5
75. 1
74.0
74.6
74. 5
71.9
72. 5
71.9
71. 6
72.0
71. 4
70. 1
71.2
U. S.
Government
securities
4. 8
16.3
90.6
74.8
69.3
62. 5
65. 5
66.3
65. 9
64.8
65.3
65. 1
62. 5
63.3
62. 8
62. 5
63.0
62. 2
60. 9
62. 0
Other
securities
8. 7
7. 1
7.3
8. 1
9. 0
9. 1
9. 3
9. 2
9.2
9.2
9.3
9.4
9. 4
9.2
9. 1
9. 1
9. 1
9. 1
9. 2
9.2
MONIZY SUPPLY
After a size able decline during the 1<
important fa ctor, the money supply in
B I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S
200
200
TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY
( EXCLUDING U.S. GOV'T. DEPOSITS)
1 75
*******
1 50
1 25
~
^
~~
***«^
i 00
75
n
-
> \
50
:;'::'-:.:_:
£**?
J"-M*
25
CURRENCY OUTSIDE BANKS
?£
f .1
0
1939
1948
END OF YEAR
EttD OF MONTH
SOURCE
BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[Billions of dollars]
Total money
supply
End of period
1929
1939.
1941
1943_
1945_
1946.
1947_
19481948: March.
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December «
1949: January _„
February
March3
April
_
_ _ _
_
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
__
_
54. 6
63,3
76. 3
112. 3
150.9
164. 0
170.0
168.7
164.0
165. 0
165. 2
165. 7
166. 2
166.7
166. 9
168. 0
167. 9
168. 7
168. 0
166 1
164. 0
165. 4
Currency
outside
banks
3. 6
6. 4
9. 6
18.8
26. 5
26. 7
26. 5
25. 7
25. 6
25. 4
25. 4
25. 6
25. 5
25. 6
25.7
25. 7
25. 9
25. 7
25.2
25. 1
25. 0
24. 9
Adjusted
demand
deposits *
22. 8
29. 8
39. 0
60. 8
75.9
83. 3
87. 1
85. 8
81. 5
82.7
82. 8
82. 7
83. 4
83. 8
83. 9
85. 0
85.0
85. 8
85. 3
83 3
81. 0
82. 4
Time
deposits a
28. 2
27. 1
27. 7
32. 7
48. 5
54. 0
56. 4
57.3
56. 9
56. 9
57. 0
57. 4
57. 3
57. 3
57. 3
57. 3
57.0
57.3
57. 6
57. 7
58. 0
58. 1
1
Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection.
2
Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System.
* Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System.
31
FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM
AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC
The cash surplus of about $3 billion during the first quarter, which includes the seasonally high
March tax receipts, was less than half as great as during the same quarter of 1948.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
I6
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
16
EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS
LJ
EXCESS OF CA'SH PAYMENTS
1949
1948
1947
1946
CALENDAR
YEARS
SOURCE: BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT.
[Millions of dollars]
Calendar years
Calendar year total:
1946 "
1947
1948
__
_
_
.
Quarterly total, not adjusted for seasonal:
1946: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
_
1947:
First quarter _
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
__
_
_
_
_ _
__
_ -
1948- First quarter
Second quarter. _ _
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
__
__
_
_
_
_
_
_
Excess of receipts ( + ) or
payments (•— )
Federal cash
receipts from
the public l
Federal cash
payments to
the public l
41, 426
44, 279
44, 920
41, 372
38, 584
36, 954
+ 54
+ 5, 695
+ 7,967
12, 632
9 462
9, 702
9,630
12,
12
8,
8,
244
008
449
671
+ 388
— 2 547
+ 1 252
+ 959
14,
9,
10,
9,
345
847
220
869
9,
10,
10,
8,
163
628
257
536
+ 5 182
— 781
— 37
+ 1 331
15,
10,
10,
9,
037
238
085
560
8 637
9, 033
8 798
10, 486
+ 6 400
+ l' 205
+ 1 287
— 925
1949: First quarter
_
_ _
13, 122
9,931
+ 3, 191
Payments of refunds of Government receipts are now reported as deductions from total receipts; previously, they were reported as expenditures.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget.
32
1
o
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