Full text of Economic Indicators : June 1948
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80th Congress, 2d Session Joint Committee Print Economic Indicators JUNE 1948 Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers and printed for the use of the Joint Committee on the Economic Report UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1948 JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT (Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio, Chairman JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan, Vice Chairman GEORGE H. BENDER, Ohio CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio JOSEPH H. BALL, Minnesota RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania JOHN SPARKMAN, Alabama CHARLES O. HARDY, Staff Director FRED E. BERQUIST, Assistant Staff Director J O H N W. LEHMAN, Clerk WILLIAM H . MOORE, Economist This is the second issue of a set of basic charts and tables assembled by the Council of Economic Advisers and released through the Joint Committee on the Economic Report. As was said by Vice-Chairman Wolcott in transmitting the previous issue to the Members of Congress, "From the time the Joint Committee on the Economic Report was established, its members realized that one of its basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of current economic trends and developments. * * * * * "Other Members of Congress have also expressed an interest in being able to obtain a quick picture of .current economic facts. * * * In addition, businessmen, farm leaders, labor organizations, and representatives of the press and radio have indicated their desire for this information." ii Economic Indicators, which was developed by the Council of Economic Advisers for use of the President, the Council, and other officials in the Executive offices and made available to the Joint Committee on the Economic Report, seemed to fill this need admirably. Accordingly, the Committee decided to provide Congress and the public with a limited number of copies of Economic Indicators for May 1948. If the report received a favorable reaction from the Members of Congress it would be continued on a regular monthly basis. While action has not been taken on its continuing publication, response to the first issue of Economic Indicators has been so encouraging that the committee has again arranged for a committee print pending final decision. Additional comments or suggestions with respect to possible improvements in this presentation will be appreciated. Contents Section A: THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET The Nation's Economic Budget Section B: PRICES Consumers' Prices, Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers Stock Prices 2 3 4 5 Section C: EMPLOYMENT Labor Force Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours Work Stoppages 6 7 8 9 Section D: PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Production of Selected Durable Manufactures. . . . Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures. New Construction New Housing Starts Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment New Corporate Security Issues 1 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Section D: PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY—Continued Inventories and Sales 17 Exports and Imports 18 Section E: PURCHASING POWER National Income Corporate Profits Personal Income Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving Per Capita Income Average Hourly Earnings Average Weekly Earnings Farm Income Average Family Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Consumer Credit 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 Section F: MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE Bank Loans and Investments. 30 Money Supply 31 Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public 32 iii Section A: THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET Rising trend of total income and expenditures continued in 1st. quarter of 1948; business outlays, particularly inventories, showed a marked increase and net foreign investment, a decided drop. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET TOTAL* 250 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS CONSUMERS BUSINESS 250 (Gross National Product) 50 EXCESS OF EXPENDITURES - EXPENDITURES 25 RECEIPTS \ I 200 200 EXPENDITURES 1946 1947 INCOME I I 50 INTERNATIONAL 150 25 NET FOREIGN INVESTMENT V/M 100 I 100 I 1947 1948 1st Qr** EXCESS OF RECEIPTS 50 50 1946 1948 I St Or GOVERNMENT 75 50 \///A 1947 1946 1947 1946 25 1947 1946 1948 1st Or* GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IS LESS THAN THE SUM OF THE ACCOUNTS OF NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET BECAUSE OF CERTAIN ADJUSTMENTS. FOR DETAIL, SEE APPENDIX A OF THE PRESIDENT'S ECONOMIC REPORTS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BUREAU OF THE BUDGET. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A0VI3ERS [Billions of dollars] Calendar year 1946 Account Excess of Excess of Re- Expend- receipts (+) Re- Expend- receipts (+) ceipts itures or expendi- ceipts itures or expenditures (—) tures (—) Consumers: Disposable income 158.4 143.7 Expenditures Saving (+) _ ._ Business: 13.3 Undistributed profits and reserves.. _ Gross private domestic investment . 24.6 Excess of receipts (+) or investment (—) International: Net foreign investment 4.8 Excess of receipts (+) or investment (—) Government (Federal, State, and local): Cash receipts from the public -- 56.5 Cash Davments to the Dublic 55.2 Excess1 of receipts (+) or Davments (—) -22.3 -24.5 Adjustments 0 Statistical discrepancy _ -2.1 Total gross national product- _ -—. . _ . _ - Calendar year 1947 203. 7 203. 7 175.3 + 14.8 17. 6 -11.3 164. 4 27. 8 8.7 -4.8 59.3 53. 4 + 1.3 +2.1 - 1 8 . 2 - 2 4 . 7 -2. 1 -4.4 0 229. 6 229.6 Calendar year 1948, first quarter, annual rates, seasonally adjusted Receipts 186. 1 + 10.9 18.9 -10.2 62.3 0 173.2 36. 0 4.2 -8.7 +5.9 + 6.5 -4.4 Expenditures 51. 4 -17.7 -20.4 -5. 3 244.3 244.3 Excess of receipts (+) or expenditures (—) + 12.9 -17. 1 » 4 2 + 10.9 +2.7 -5.3 0 1 Adjustments must be made to insure that Nation's Economic Budget total is equal to current production of goods and services. The adjustments eliminate double counting, such as payments to social security beneficiaries and veterans' pensions, which are reflected in government account as well as in consumers' account. For detail, see Appendix A of the President's Economic Reports. * ' NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding* Sources: Department of Commerce and Bureau of the Budget. - ..,. Section B: PRICES CONSUMERS' PRICES After dropping for two months, consumers' prices turned up again and reached an all-time high in April. Food prices increased sharply. PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 PERCENT OF 1935*39 AVERAGE AVERAGE 200 200 175 150 125 100 100 75 0 H I I I 1 I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I 1 1 I I I I I I ! I 1 I 1 1 I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I 1 1 I I l l I I I I I I I I I I • 939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 I I I I I 1 I I I I I 1 I 1 I I I I I I I 1 1945 GOODS AND SERVICES, 1948 1947 ALSO INCLUDES HOUSEFURNISHINGS, FUEL, ELECTRICITY, AND MISCELLANEOUS I I 1 I I 1 I I I I I I 1946 ICE, NOT SHOWN ON CHART. SOURCE: Deportment of Labor. Council of Economic Advisers [1935-39=100] Period 1939 monthly 1940 monthly 1941 monthly 1942 monthly 1943 monthly 1944 monthly 1945 monthly 1946 monthly 1947 monthly All items» Food Clothing Rent average. average. average. average. average average. average. average average 99.4 100.2 105.2 116.5 123.6 125.5 128.4 139.3 159.2 95.2 96.6 105.5 123.9 138.0 136. 1 139. 1 159.6 193.8 100.5 101.7 106.3 124.2 129.7 138.8 145.9 160. 2 185. 8 104.3 104.6 106.2 108.5 108.0 108.2 108.3 108.6 111.2 1947: May June. -__ July. .... August. -_ September October-. -. November December 156.0 157. 1 158.4 160. 3 163.8 163.8 164.9 167.0 187. 6 190.5 193. 1 196.5 203.5 201.6 202. 7 206.9 185.0 185.7 184.7 185.9 187.6 189.0 190.2 191.2 109. 2 109.2 110.0 111.2 113.6 114.9 115. 2 115.4 1948; January February March April 168.8 167.5 166.9 169.3 209.7 204. .7 202.3 207.9 192. 1 195. 1 196.3 196.4 115.9 116.0 116.3 116.3 2 Also includes housefurnishings, fuel, electricity, ice, and miscellaneous goods and services. NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities* Source: Department of Labor. WHOLESALE PRICES Most wholesale prices fluctuated within a narrow range in May. PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE 220 PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE WEEKLY INDEX 200 200 FARM PRODUCTS- 180 180 160 160 • ••••••«#»•••••** ALL COMMODITIES 140 140 OTHER THAN FARM AND POODS t 20 120 100 ..4.«.f##7 I I O M J F SOURCE: M A I I J A I I S O 100 N 0 J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S O N COUNCIL. OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. [1926=100] All commod- Farm prodities ucts Week ended— 1946: J a n . 5 June 29 Sept 28 Dec. 28 - . - _ _.---, _ . -- 1947: Mar. 29 June 28 Sept. 27 Dec 27 - - -• - -- 1948: Jan. 17 Feb 14 21 _ Mar, 6 13 20 27 Apr. 3 10 17 24 May 1 8 15 22 29— O - - . .... -- ... _ _. Source: Department of Labor. _ _ _ ' Foods Other than farm and foods 106. 8 112. 7 124.4 139. 6 149.4 147. 6 156. 2 163. 0 165. 5 131.3 140. 3 156. 6 167.7 183.8 179. 0 184.7 197.0 201.5 108.0 113.4 133.0 159. 1 166.5. 162. 2 177.6 177.8 181.2 100. 6 105.4 112.4 123.9 131. 9 132.0 138.2 146.0 147.4 159. 7 159. 2 160.4 159. 8 161. 5 161. 1 180. 9 181. 7 187. 1 184. 9 187.6 186.2 173.3 170. 3 172.2 171.2 176.4 174.8 160. 1 160. 6 162. 9 163. 6 162.6 161. 9 163. 5 163. 5 164*4 183. 9 183. 1 189.2 188. 9 186. 9 184. 0 187. 9 189.2 173. 0 172.4 174.5 178.8 180.4 177.5 174.8 178. 9 177.2 178.0 147.5 147.5 147.3 147.3 147.3 147.4 147.7 147. 9 148.3 149.0 148.7 148.9 149.0 149.2 149.3 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers showed little change in May. Prices paid by farmers have been relatively stable since the first of the year. PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE 350 PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE 350 MONTHLY AVERAGE 300 300 PRICES RECEIVED 250 250 200 200 PRICES PAID (INCt. INTEREST, TAXES) 150 150 *»-»•-•--+" JOO 100 PARITY RATIO* 50 50 I 1939 * 40 41 42 43 44 I I I I I I I I 1I I 45 F M A M J J A S O N O I I I I I 1 I I I I i F M A M J 1946 J A S O N O J 1947 I I I I I F M A M J RATIO OP PRICES RECEIVED TO PRICES PA 10, INTEREST, AND TAXES. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1910-14=100] Period 1939 monthly 1940 monthly 1941 monthly 1942 monthly 1943 monthly 1944 monthly 1945 monthly 1946 monthly 1947 monthly averageaverageaverage . averageaverageaverage _ average _ averageaverage- Prices received * Prices paid, including inter- Parity ratio 3 est and taxes 95 100 124 159 192 195 202 233 278 124 125 132 150 162 169 172 193 231 77 80 94 106 119 115 117 121 120 1947: June July August September _ October NovemberDecember.. 271 276 276 286 289 287 301 230 230 234 238 239 241 245 118 120 118 120 121 119 123 1948: January.FebruaryMarch •April May 307 279 283 291 289 251 248 247 249 250 122 112 115 117 116 * August 1909-July 1914=100. Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and taxes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 2 0 1948 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. 4 I I 1 t I J A S O N STOCK PRICES In May, industrial and railroad stocks reached the highest level since August 1946. PERCENT OF 1935 - 39 AVERAGE 175 PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 AVERAGE 175 MONTHLY AVERAGE I 50 150 125 125 100 100 50 I 1939 * 40 AVERAGE SOURCE 41 OF WEEKLY 42 43 44 45 J F M A M J J A S O N D - J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A I I I DATA THROUGH MAY 2 6 STANDARD AND POOR'S CORPORATION. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC [1935-39 = 100] Period 'Combined in- Industrials (354 dex (402 stocks) stocks) 1939 monthly average 1940 monthly average 1941 monthly average. 1942 monthly average • 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average. 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947: June July August September October November December -- 1948: January February March April 1 May 1 Average of weekly data through May 26. Source: Standard & Poor's Corp. 76957—48 8 I I I M~J J A S O N O Railroads (20 stocks) Utilities (28 stocks) 94.2 88.1 80.0 69.4 91.9 99.8 121. 5 139.9 123.0 94.8 "87. 9 80.4 71.3 94. 1 101.7 123.3 143.4 128.0 74.7 71. 1 70.6 66. 1 88.7 101.0 136.9 143.0 105.3 98.6 95.8 81.0 61.3 82. 1 89.9 106. 1 120.2 102.9 119. 1 126.0 124.5 123. 1 125. 1 123.6 122.4 124. 1 131.7 130.2 128.4 131. 1 130.3 129.2 97.6 108.2 105.2 103.6 104.2 100. 1 103.9 100.8 102.2 101.4 102.0 101.0 97.2 94.0 120. 1 114.2 116.4 124.6 130.2 126.0 119.2 121.8 130.8 137.0 106.5 101.9 105.2 115.2 122.6 95.1 92.6 93.0 96.2 99.2 ADVISERS Section C: EMPLOYMENT LABOR FORCE While seasonal increases expanded the labor force by about 750,000 in April, the seasonal increase in employment, particularly in agriculture, reduced unemployment by more than 200,000, following a like decrease the preceding month. 75 MILLIONS OF PERSONS - - MILLIONS OF PERSONS 75 TOTAL LABOR FORCE 50 50 25 I MONTHLY AVERAGE J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J I 1 II A S 0 N D UNEMPLOYED-MAGNIFIED SCALE I 1944 1945 1946 t ...I....1 1 t.. i 1947 1946 1948 SOURCE: Oeportment of Commerce. Council of Economic Advisers [Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over] Period 1941 monthly 1944 monthly 1945 monthly 1946 monthly 1947 monthly Total labor force, including armed forces Civilian employed Total In nonagricultural industries average average average average average 57, 65, 65, 60, 61, 380 890 140 820 608 50, 53, 52, 55, 58, 1947: May ... June July . August. _^ September October November. . . , . December 61, 64, 64, 63, 62, 62, 61, 60, 760 007 035 017 130 219 510 870 58, 330 60, 055 60, 079 59, 569 58,872 59, 204 58, 595 57, 947 49, 49, 50, 50, 50, 50, 50, 50, 1948: January February March_April May 60, 61, 61, 61, 61, 455 004 005 760 660 57, 149 57, 139 57,329 58, 330 58, 660 50, 50, 50, 50, 50, NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. 350 960 820 250 027 41, 250 45, 010 44, 240 46, 930 49,761 In agriculture Armed forces Unemployed 9, 100 8, 950 8,580 8,320 8,266 1, 470 11,260 11, 280 3,300 1, 440 5,560 670 1,040 2,270 2, 142 370 678 013 594 145 583 609 985 8,960 10, 377 10, 066 8,975 8, 727 8,622 7,985 6,962 1,470 1,397 1,371 1,352 1, 346 1,327 1, 294 1, 280 1,960 2,555 2,584 2,096 1,912 1,687 1,621 1,643 089 368 482 883 800 7,060 6,771 6,847 7,448 7,861 1,242 1, 226 1,236 1,237 1, 238 2,065 2,639 2, 440 2,193 1,761 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT * The April drop in manufacturing and trade employment was partially offset by an increase in other nonagricultura! industries. MILLIONS OF EMPLOYEES MILLIONS OF EMPLOYEES 60 ,60 MONTHLY AVERAGE 50 50 TOTAL 40 40 30 30 FEDERAL,STATE,AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT 20 20 I0 10 1939w 1941 1944 1945 SEE FOOTNOTE I ON OPPOSITE PAGE. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of employees] Period 1939 monthly 1941 monthly 1944 monthly 1945 monthly 1946 monthly 1947 monthly average. average. average. average. average. average. Total wage and salary workers * 30, 36, 41, 39, 40, 42, 287 164 480 977 712 539 Manufacturing Trade Federal, State, and local government Other 10, 078 12, 974 17,111 15, 302 14, 365 15, 553 6,705 7,567 7,399 7,654 8,448 8,712 3,987 4,622 6,026 5,967 5,595 5,411 9,517 11, 001 10, 944 11, 054 12, 305 12, 863 1947: May June. July August September. October November. December. 41,919 42, 363 42, 201 42, 624 43, 039 43, 298 43, 450 44, 078 15, 15, 15, 15, 15, 15, 15, 15, 237 328 233 595 801 831 872 964 8,545 8,582 8,558 8,586 8,688 8,889 9,075 9,453 5,447 5,399 5,281 5,288 5,425 5,469 5,450 5,653 12, 690 13, 054 13, 129 13, 155 13, 125 13, 109 13, 053 13, 007 1948: January.. FebruaryMarch2 April -.. 43, 42, 42, 42, 15, 15, 15, 15, 878 785 875 531 8,821 8,727 8,806 8, 771 5,417 5,387 5,426 5,451 12, 899 12, 781 12, 873 12, 955 015 680 980 708 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Not comparable with estimates for npnagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, as reported by Department of Commerce, because latter includes self-employed, proprietors, and domestic servants, counts as employed persons not at work because of industrial disputes, and are based on population enumeration whereas estimates in this table are based on establishment reports. 2 Preliminary estimate. Source: Department of Labor. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS Weekly hours for April declined in manufacturing, largely because of steel curtailments and seasonal factors in the soft goods industries. HOURS PER WEEK HOURS PER WEEK ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES 50 BITUMINOUS COAL MINING 50 MONTHL 40 MONTHLY ftVE RAC,E .A « \ 40 \ 30 30 20 20 I 0 I 0 M M 1939 41 44 ^JjLJLJLLJL I I I I I 1 I I I I I .....1,,... 1947 1946 1946 45 U IM 1939 41 44 45 11 l i ' l " ' 1948 1947 1946 RETAIL TRADE PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION bU , JJJL 50 MONTHLY AVERAGE An 40 30 30 2 0 20 1 O «^§ 10 • 1111111111 0 1939 41 44 45 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT i 1946 I I I ! I I t 1 j | 1 1947 . . . . . 1 . . . . . I 1948 1939 41 44 . 45 . . . . . 1946 OF LABOR. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Period average. average. average. average. average. average. All manufacturing industries Bituminous coal mining Private building construction 1 27. 1 31.1 43.4 42.3 41.6 40.7 32.6 34.8 39.6 39.0 38. 1 37.8 43.0 42.5 40.3 40.3 40.5 40. 2 1947: May June July August September. October November. December. 40. 1 40.2 39.8 39.8 40.4 40.6 40.4 41.2 44.3 43.7 31.8 39. 1 39.1 39.9 38.5 41.2 37.7 37.7 37.9 39.7 38.0 38.0 36.6 37.9 40.0 40.8 41. 1 41.0 40.0 40.0 39.5 39.7 1948: 40.5 40. 1 40.3 40.0 40.9 38.7 37.2 36.7 36.5 39.8 40.0 39.5 1 8 40.4 Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects. * Preliminary estimate. 8 Based on pay period prior to coal stoppage. Source: Department of Labor, 8 Retail trade 37.7 40.6 45.2 43.4 40.4 40. 3 January._ February. March 2 .. April*.... , 1948 [Hours per week, selected industries] 1939 monthly 1941 monthly 1944 monthly 1945 monthly 1946 monthly 1947 monthly | 1 1947 WORK STOPPAGES In April, 8 million workdays were lost as work stoppages continued in bituminous coal mining and meat-packing industries. MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE MILLIONS OF MAN-OAYS (OLE 25 25 I STEEL, AUTOMOBILE 20 20 15 15 10 PEAK MONTH COAL, MEATPACKING iHiil MONTHLY AVERAGE u -I Bill iii||i ppii \ pjii Iill \P jHLJI f :V • iii tVi iiiiiiiiiiii IpljiliuJ •' 1939 40 41 42 43 44 45 M i l l I l l l l l l J F MA M J J A S O N O J F M A MJ J A S 1946 DUF M A * M J J A S O N D 1947 1948 * PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. 76957—48—^-4 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC Period Man-days idle (thousands) 1,484 4,902 559 1,921 7,113 349 1, 125 4,699 1939: Monthly average April—peak month. 1940: Monthly average 1941: Monthly average April—peak month 1942: Monthly average 1943: Monthly average June—peak month 1944: 1945: Monthly average Monthly average 1946: October—peak month. 1947: Monthly average 1947: May Monthly average June July August September. October November. December . 1948: January February.. March.. April * Preliminary estimate. ADVISERS Principal stoppage Coal. Coal. Coal. 727 3,168 8,610 9,672 2,908 6,800 4,000 4,000 2,500 2,000 1,900 700 500 1,000 725 6,000 8,000 Coal. Telephone. Coal, meat packing. Coal, meat packing. Source: Department of Labor. 9 Section D: PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Industrial production dropped again in April because of a decrease in durable goods manufacturing. Substantial recovery in May is indicated by preliminary figures. PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 250 250 200 200 150 150 § 100 100 50 50 AVERAGE AVERAGE AVERAGE J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A 1946 M J J A S O N O J F M mlJ_j_j_l A * M *J J A S 0 1947 N D 1948 * PRELIM IN AR Y E5 TIMA TE S O U R C E : Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve S y s t e m [1935-39 = 100, seasonally adjusted] Points in total index, 1935-39 average for total= 100 Indexes, 1935-39 = 100 Period 1935-39 monthly-average_ 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947: June July August September October November December 1948 January. . February. March April i . _ . May * 1 10 Preliminary estimate-. Total industrial production 100 239 203 170 187 Manufactures Total Durable goods 184 176 182 187 190 192 192 100 258 214 177 193 191 183 188 192 197 199 198 100 360 274 192 220 219 207 210 217 223 224 229 193 194 192 187 191 200 201 200 194 196 229 226 229 217 223 Manufactures Nondurable goods Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 100 176 166 165 172 168 163 169 172 176 178 173 178 180 177 176 175 Mining 100 132 137 134 149 148 140 150 153 155 155 156 154 155 142. 147 160 Durable goods 38 136 104 73 83 83 79 80 83 84 85 87 87 86 87 82 85 Nondurable goods 47 83 78 7781 79 76 79 80 83 84 81 83 84 83 83 82 Mining 15 20 2.1 21 23 23 21 23 23 24 24 24 23 24 22 22 24 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE MANUFACTURES Production of iron and steel in April was down 15 percent as a result of the coal shortage. PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 AVERAGE TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT LUMBER AND PRODUCTS 400 800 MONTHLY AVERAGE 300 700 jiSj 600 200 •*% m 500 100 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 .1 400 1935-39 1943 1945 1946 , . ii 1 . . . . . , i > . i 1 . i . i . 1948 1947 IRON AND I STEEL 300- 300 v>— 200 200 100 n 100 Mil 1935-39 1943 1945 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1946 1947 V i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1948 1935-39 1943 1945 IMMIM.,.1947 1946 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. •v- M l . . ! . 1 1 1 1948 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted] Period Transportation equipment Lumber and products Iron and steel 1935-39 monthly average_ 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 100 734 487 232 230 100 130 110 130 144 100 208 183 150 195 1947: May June July August September. October, _.. November. December.. 225 233 217 213 227 232 234 243 142 142 133 142 140 143 150 153 197 193 181 188 195 204 202 205 1948: January__ February. 244 231 242 238 156 150 151 141 203 203 207 177 March April L__. 1 Preliminary estimate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 11 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE MANUFACTURES The o u t p u t of most nondurable i n d u s t r i e s showed l i t t l e change in A p r i l . PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS 300 300 MONTHLY AVERAG E MONTHLY AVERAGE 200 200 1,00 100 II jjiij 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 II1 1 11 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1936-39 43 1946 45 1948 1947 1935-39 43 MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS 1948 1947 1946 45 CHEMICAL PRODUCTS 400 400 MONTHLY AVERAGE MONTHLY AVERAGE 300 300 200 200 --" • 100 0 I 1935-39 100 Mil 43 45 1 1 1 1 11 111 11 1 1946 1 1 1 1 1 1 1947 M . . .1 . . . . . 1948 I 1935-39 1M II 1 II 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 111 |111 111 43 45 1947 1946 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC [1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted] Period Textiles and products Chemical products 100 153 146 162 163 100 185 235 173 193 100 145 151 150 157 100 384 284 236 251 1947: May June July August September. October November. December. 164 155 142 154 160 164 172 163 184 191 195 201 203 204 205 208 155 154 155 157 158 156 158 157 253 250 251 249 248 248 251 255 1948: January.. February. March April i.... 178 179 175 172 214 214 212 210 158 160 159 160 255 251 249 248 Preliminary estimate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Manufactured food products 1935-39 monthly average. 1943 monthly average; 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1 12 Petroleum and coal products 1 \ \ 1 1 1948 ADVISERS NEW CONSTRUCTION Preliminary estimates indicate that construction continued its seasonal increase in May. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2,000 76957—18 2,000 MONTHLY AVERAGE TOTAL NEW CONSTRUCTION , 1,500 1,500 FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL* 1,000 1,000 TOTAL> PRIVATE OTHER PRIVATE 500 500 RESIDENTIAL NONFARM 1939 1942 1944 1945 1946 1947 * INCLUDES PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL J F M A M J J A S O N O J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D CONSTRUCTION SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Private construction Period Total new construction V Total private Residential (nonfarm) Other Federal, State, and local» 526 1, 118 345 401 871 1, 165 317 251 152 226 688 908 176 110 45 57 265 438 141 141 107 169 422 469 208 867 193 174 184 257 1947: June July August September _ October November December 1, 162 1,264 1, 364 1,423 1,497 1,432 1, 320 885 966 1,042 1,086 1, 129 1, 141 1,097 405 455 500 540 590 630 610 480 511 542 546 539 511 487 277 298 322 337 368 291 223 19481 January 1, 157 1,009 1, 166 1,302 1,449 948 837 940 1,015 1,111 500 400 475 525 575 448 437 466 490 536 209 172 226 287 338 1939 1942 1944 1945 1946 1947 monthly monthly monthly monthly monthly monthly March April May 2 averaee averaee average average average average _„ 1 Includes public residential construction. Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor. 2 5 13 NEW HOUSING STARTS" The 9 0 , 0 0 0 nonfarm dwelling units in April were not far below 1947 peak reached in October. During the first four months of this year, starts were about 2 5 percent above the same period a year ago. THOUSANOS OF UNITS THOUSANDS OF UNITS 100 too 80 60 40 20 20 * NEW NONFARM FAMILY DWELLING UNITS. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC AOVISERS Period and New nonfarm units (conventional prefabricated) l Total Urban Rural nonfarm 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average. 64, 683 71, 125 41, 164 40, 125 23, 520 31, 000 1947: January February... March April May June July August September. October November. December.. 39, 300 42, 800 56, 700 67, 900 73, 100 79, 400 81, 100 86, 800 93, 800 94, 000 79, 800 58,800 24, 200 25, 000 32,300 38, 000 39, 300 43, 000 44, 500 47, 400 50, 300 53, 200 48,000 36,300 15, 100 17, 800 24,400 29, 900 33, 800 36, 400 36, 600 39, 400 43, 500 40,800 31, 800 22,500 1948: January-FebruaryMarch 2_, April »-.- 50, 000 47, 200 70, 000 90,000 30,400 28, 800 41, 800 54,000 19,600 18, 400 28, 200 36, 000 1 New nonfarm family dwelling Units. Temporary units are excluded after 1947 when the program ended. Preliminary estimate. | NoTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Labor. 2 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Recent surveys indicate that business, exclusive of agriculture, expects to spend $18.6 billion on new plant and equipment in 1948, or 15 percent more than was actually spent last year. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 ANNUAL TOTALS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS . 25 ANNUAL RATES* -PLANNED- -ACTUAL- 15 TRANSPORTATION AND ELECTRIC AND GAS •UTILITIES 10 MANUFACTURE AND MINING 1939 1941 1945 2 I 3 2 * MOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL 2ND HALF 1948 1946 VARIATION. SOURCES; SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC AOVtSERS [Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal] Period Total * Manufacturing Transportation Mining Railroad Other Electric and Commercial miscelgas utilities and laneous % ..-. -_-. 5,200 8,190 6,630 12, 040 16, 200 18, 620 1,930 3,400 3,210 5,910 7,460 7,760 380 680 440 560 690 690 280 560 550 570 920 1,540 280 340 320 660 800 780 480 710 630 1,040 1,900 2,300 1,850 2,490 1,480 3,300 4,430 5,560 1947: Third quarter. _. Fourth quarter.. 16, 560 19, 840 7,480 9, 160 720 840 920 1,240 800 760 2,000 2,480 4,640 5,360 1948: First quarter 3 ... 3 Second quarter . 8 Second half 17, 920 19, 120 18, 740 7, 760 8,000 7,640 800 760 620 1,360 1,560 1,620 720 840 780 2,040 2,400 2,400 5,280 5, 600 5,680 1939 1941 1945 1946 1947 1948* --... 1 2 1 Excludes agriculture. Includes trade, service, finance, and communication. Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business. . NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other data. Detail will not necessarily add to totals becausefiguresare rounded to the nearest 10,000,000. Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted). 15 NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES In the first quarter of 1948 new issues, less than the previous quarter, were above the 1947 average. New money accounted for a larger part of the total. BILLIONS OP DOLLARS 3.0 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 30 QUARTERLY AVERAGE 2.5 2.5 20 2.0 1.5 1.5 RETIREMENT OF DEBT AMD STOCK I 1.0 I 1.0 I 1943 1939 1945 I I .5 I I* 2 3 1946 2 3 4 1948 * INCLUDES PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE FOR MARCH SOURCE: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Proposed uses of net proceeds Period 1939 quarterly 1943 quarterly 1945 quarterly 1946 quarterly 1947 quarterly average . average . average. average. average. Estimated net proceeds 81 77 270 820 1,068 448 210 1,206 869 460 1947: First quarter. _. Second quarter. Third quarter. _. Fourth quarter. 1,018 1,605 1,267 2,222 673 932 797 1,867 344 672 469 354 1948: First quarter *_. 1,613 1,400 214 1 Includes small amount for other purposes. Includes preliminary estimate for March. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Securities and Exchange Commission. Retirement of debt and stock l 529 287 1,476 1,689 1, 528 2 16 New money INVENTORIES AND SALES Inventories continued to rise slightly in value in March. Department store sales increased more than seasonally in April and preliminary sales data for May indicate a further rise. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS WHOLESALE MANUFACTURING 30 30 NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION ^ " —# SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INVENTORIES* 20 SALESJ ^^^^ SALES* 1 0 10 ^INVENTORIES* i i i i i I i i i 1946 i i II i i i I i i 1947 ti 1 . •• , . , 1948 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS i i i i i 1 i 1947 0 1946 i i t t i i i i i 1 i i i i i 1948 PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE RETAIL DEPARTMENT STORES 30 400 SEASONALLY AOJUSTED SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SALES « * 300 INVENTORIES** 200 I I I I I I I I I I 1946 1947 1, i i i 1 1 1 00 1948 1 1 1 i i i I I 1 I i i i i 11 i i i 1 i i i i i 1947 1948 1946 « SALES ARE TOTAL FOR MONTH AW INVENTORIES ARE BOOK VALUE, END Of MONTH. * K INOEXES COMPUTED FROM DATA ON RETAIL VALUE OF SALES BOOK VALUE OF INVENTORIES, ENO OF MONTH. FOR MONTH AND RETAIL SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ANO BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. Manufacturing 3 Period Inventories * Sales 4 COUNCIL O f ECONOMIC Wholesale2 Retail2 Inventories3 Inventories * Department stores Sales 4 1 1 1 4 18, 773 19, 468 21, 500 23, 432 24, 211 24, 826 25, 392 25, 847 26, 435 26, 475 26, 842 27, 048 27, 053 27, 395 27, 625 28, 016 28, 485 28, 752 29, 065 29, 100 10, 712 11, 132 13, 055 14, 634 14, 454 14, 177 15, 548 15, 398 15, 049 15, 065 14, 362 15, 258 16, 597 18, 081 16, 556 17, 524 16, 551 16, 209 18, 070 17, 300 4,304 4,578 5,131 5,994 6,248 6,444 6, 611 6,778 6,737 6,864 6,726 6,886 6,997 6,943 7,349 7,577 7,618 7,754 8,054 8,049 9,691 10, 370 11, 402 13, 052 12, 683 12, 996 12, 627 12, 218 12, 369 12, 541 12, 403 12, 523 13, 263 13, 615 14, 333 13, 697 14, 096 13, 993 13, 426 13, 701 Inventories Sales 1935-39=100 seasonally adjusted * Millions of dollars 1946: March June September. December.. 1947: January February. _ March April May June July August September. October November. December.. 1948: January February.. March fl April«_.... May* A0VI6ERS 6,522 7,043 8,216 9,141 9,337 9,582 9,715 9,703 9,502 9,440 9,574 9,838 10, 052 10, 202 10, 199 10, 352 10, 562 10, 902 11,413 7,783 8,101 8,811 9,205 9,097 9,285 9,399 9,610 9,681 9,743 9,730 9,621 10, 162 10, 258 10, 485 10, 653 10, 445 10, 381 10, 565 10, 832 177 210 226 274 268 274 273 264 252 242 231 227 231 251 273 283 288 303 312 308 255 277 271 276 265 266 272 277 291 289 286 283 292 277 302 303 284 283 284 304 308 1 Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for month and retail Not adjusted for seasonal variation. book value of inventories, end of month. Adjusted for seasonal variation* 8 Preliminary estimate. Book value, end of month. Total for month. Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 EXPORTS AND IMPORTS Exports rose in March, but were less than any month of 1947. The value of imports reached a new record. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1.6 MONTHLY AVERAGES 1.6 1.4 1 .4 1.2 I .2 EXPORTS* (.0 I .0 .8 .8 I ,2 i - J936-38 1943 i 1945 J F M A M J X RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, AND CIVILIAN * * RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AREAS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY [Millions of dollars] Period 1936-38 monthly average. 1943 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1046 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1947: 1948: 1 •ts1 247 Imports 2 1,281 207 282 346 409 478 April May June July August . September. October NovemberDecember-. 1,362 1,503 1,320 1, 265 1,265 1, 183 1, 303 1, 195 1, 199 512 474 463 450 400 481 492 455 601 January._ February. March. __ 1,091 1,086 1,141 546 582 666 1,080 877 849 Excess of Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas. Recorded general merchandise imports. Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy. 2 18 exports 40 798 531 440 803 850 1,029 857 815 865 702 811 740 598 545 504 475 O N O Section E: PURCHASING POWER NATIONAL INCOME Revised estimates for corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment raised the estimates of national income for 4th quarter of 1947 and 1st quarter of 1948 (annual rate) by $2 billion to new high levels. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 ANNUAL TOTALS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES TOTAL NATIONAL INCOME 200 - 200 \ •CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT PROPRIETORS'AND RENTAL 150 150 100 100 COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES 50 50 1939 1944 1945 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 I* 4 2 3 4 1948 1947; 1946 X PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Total National Income Period 1939 1944 1945 1946 1947 ... . . _ 72.5 182. 3 182.8 178.2 203. 1 Compensation of employees Proprietors' and rental income 47.8 121. 2 122.9 116. 8 128. 1 14.7 34. 4 37. 1 41.8 47. 8 Corporate profits and invenNet interest tory valuation adjustment 5.8 23.5 19.7 16.5 23. 6 4.2 3.2 3. 1 3.2 3.6 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1947: First quarter. Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948: First quarter 1 ,. __-.__ 194. 6 199.8 203.3 214.3 124. 7 125. 6 128.7 132. 9 46. 2 46.7 47. 0 51. 5 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.8 217,3 134.6 52.6 3. 8 20.4 23.9 23.9 26. 1 2 26,3 1 Preliminary estimate. . . * -2 Estimate at level indicated by Commerce's last tabulation of profits before inventory valuation adjustment; which was for the fourth quarter of 1947. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. 19 CORPORATE PROFITS Profits rose sharply in 4th quarter of 1947. Fragmentary information suggests continued high level of profits in 1st quarter of 1948 but official estimates are not available. BILUONS OF OOLLARS BILLIONS OF OOLLARS 40 40 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES ANNUAL TOTALS PROFITS BEFORE TAXES* 30 20 ^ PROFITS > AFTER TAXES 10 10 UNDISTRIBUTED PROFITS I 1929 1939 1943 I NO ALLOWANCE SOURCE : FOR INVENTORY VALUATION 3 1 4 I 2 3 ADJUSTMENT. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Period 1929 1939 1943 1946 1947 Corporate profits before taxes 9.8 6.5 24.5 21. 1 29.2 Corporate tax liability Corporate profits after taxes Total 8.4 5.0 10.4 12. 5 17.8 1.4 1.5 14.2 8.6 11.5 Dividend payments Undistributed profits 5.8 3.8 4.5 5.6 6.8 2.6 1.2 5.9 6.9 11.0 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1947: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1948: First quarter 28.9 27.8 28.2 32.2 O 17.4 16.9 17. 1 19.7 11.5 10.9 11. 1 12.6 0 6.3 6.5 6.8 7.3 7.5 11.1 10.4 10.3 12.4 (l) 1 Not available. NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment. add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce, 20 4 1948 1947 1946 * 2 Detail will not necessarily PERSONAL INCOME Most of the major components of personal income showed little change from February to March. The increase in Gl payments was attributed to the acceleration of veterans'bonus payments in New York State. BILLIONS, OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES ANNUAL TOTALS 200 - 200 TOTAL 150 150 PROPRIETORS AND RENTAL INCOME 100 100 SALARIES. WAGES 50 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J A S O N D J F M**A**M J J A S 0 N D TERMINAL LEAVE BOND CASHlNGS STARTED IN SEPTEMBER, 1947 ^^PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE Council of Economic Advisers SOURCE! Department of Commerce. J [Billions of dollars] Total personal income Period 1939 1944 1945 1946 ' 1947 72. 6 164. 9 171. 6 177. 2 196.8 _ Salaries, wages, Proprietors' and other and rental labor income income 45. 6 116. 2 116. 7 110. 8 122.5 14. 7 34. 4 37. 1 41. 8 47.8 security Dividends SocialGI payand interest andments 9.2 10.7 11. 6 13. 3 14.9 3.0 3.6 6.2 11. 3 11.6 Annual rates, seasonallyr adjusted 1947* May June July .- August September October November December.. 1948* January February Marchl April » _ - .« _ _ 190.5 194. 1 194. 9 193. 8 209. 9 203. 2 204. 2 210. 4 119. 1 121. 9 121. 7 123. 0 125.0 125. 6 128. 3 130. 0 46.5 47. 1 47. 4 45. 5 48. 1 50.4 49. 9 54. 0 14.4 14.6 14. 7 14.9 15.6 15. 4 15. 5 15.6 10.5 10.5 11. 1 10. 4 21.2 11.8 10. 5 10.8. 211.4 207.7 207. 7 209. 1 130. 1 129.0 126.4 125.8 54.5 51.6 51. 5 53,7 15.7 15.8 16.0 16.1 11. 1 11.3 12.0 11. 7 1 Preliminary estimate. . NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. 21 CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING Consumer income increased more than expenditures in 1st quarter of 1948. Saving estimates showed a higher rate than in any quarter of 1947 but considerably below 1946 levels. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 250 SEASONALLY AOJUSTED ANNUAL RATES ANNUAL TOTALS 200 200 DISPOSABLE * PERSONAL INCOME 150 150 100 100 CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES 50 50 J 1939 * 1940 1941 2 1942 1948 PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES # * I 3 PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC [Billions of dollars] Period 1939_._ 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944. 1945 1946. 1947 "... Disposable personal income l 70.2 75.7 92.0 116. 2 131.6 146.0 150.7 158.4 175.3 Less: Personal consumption expenditures Equals: Personal saving % 67.5 72. 1 82.3 90.8 101.6 110. 4 121.7 143.7 164.4 2.7 3.7 9.8 25.4 30.0 35.6 29.0 14.8 10.9 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1947: First quarter. _ Second quarter Third quarterFourth quarter 168.8 170. 1 177.9 183.7 156.9 162.3 165.8 172.5 11.9 7.8 12. 1 11.2 1948: First quarter 2_ 186. 1 173.2 12.9 1 Income less taxes. Preliminary estimate. Source: Department of Commerce. 2 22 ADVISERS PER CAPITA INCOME* Although per capita income increased from 4th quarter of 1947 to 1st quarter of 1948, retail prices increased more, resulting in a drop in the real purchasing power of consumers. DOLLARS DOLLARS 1,600 1,600 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS** \ 1,200 1,200 800 800 CURRENT DOLLARS 400 400 I 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 I 1 I 1945 1946 * PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES. # " * CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE CONSUMERS* PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE 1ST HALF OP 1947 * 100. I I 2 3 1947 Period . _ . _ - - -. --- 3 1948 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC Per capita disposable personal income1 _ II * * # PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 I I*** 2 Current dollars First half of 1947 dollars 2 $536 574 691 863 964 1,057 1,080 1, 122 1, 216 $838 890 1,021 1, 151 1,211 1,308 1,306 1,251 1,187 Annual rates, seasonally adji isted ADVISERS Consumers' price index, first half of 1947=100 64.0 64. 5 67. 7 75.0 79. 5 80.8 82.6 89. 6 102.4 Not adjusted for seasonal variation 1947: First quarter Second quarter. _ Third quarter Fourth quarter 1, 108 1, 184 1,232 1, 266 1, 188 1,177 1,190 1,191 99.3 100.6 103.5 106. 3 1948: First quarter *, 1,278 1,184 107. 9 1 2 8 Income lessrtaxes. Current dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base first half of 1947=100. Preliminary estimate. Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor. 23 AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS Hourly earnings in manufacturing were unchanged in April from the levels of the previous three months, the longest period without an increase since early 1946. Slight increases were registered in most nonmanufacturing industries in March. DOLLARS PER HOUR DOLLARS PER HOUR RETAIL TRADE MANUFACTURING 1.50 1.50 - 1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS* 1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS* __ 1.00 'CURRENT DOLLARS y — _ - * — \ .50 1 XURRENT DOLLARS .50 0 I I I I I I I I I i i I I i i i i i I I 1I I I I 1 1947 1946 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 i i \ 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 , ,, ,, 1 1 1 1 1948 PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION BITUMINOUS COAL MINING 2.00 2.00 1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS* 1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS* — A. 1.50 1.50 • CURRENT DOLLARS CUF RENT DOLLARS 1.00 1.00 .5 0 .50 , , I o UL 1946 ..... 1 I , ,, 1947 1948 i i i i i . i i i i 1 i i i 1946 * CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE Isf HALF OF .. i i i . i 1947 1 1948 1947*100. SOURCE'- DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Selected industries] Manufacturing Bituminous coal mining Retail trade Private building construction i Period Current dollars 1939 monthly 1941 monthly 1944 monthly 1945 monthly 1946 monthly 1947 monthly average. average. average. average. average average. 1947: May June July... August September October. November December ,. 1948: January February March 8 April *-.____-. First half of 1947 dollars 2 Current dollars Current dollars First half of 1947 dollars a Current dollars First half of 1947 dollars * $0. 633 . 729 1.019 1.023 1.084 1.221 $0. 989 1.077 1. 261 1.238 1.210 1. 192 $0. 536 . 568 .724 .773 .878 .991 $0. 838 .839 .896 .936 . 980 .968 $0. 886 .993 . 1. 186 1.240 1.401 1.644 $1. 384 1.467 1. 468 1. 501 1.564 1.605 $0. 932 1.010 1. 319 1.379 1.478 1.676 $1. 456 1.492 1. 632 1.669 1.650 1.637 1.207 1. 226 1.230 1.236 1.249 1.258 1.268 1.278 1. 202 1.213 1. 207 1. 198 1. 185 1. 194 1. 195 1. 189 .985 .996 1.003 1.003 1.012 1.013 1.025 1.016 .981 .985 .984 .972 .960 .961 .966 .945 1.470 1.489 1.740 1.787 1.819 1.798 1.851 1.826 1.464 1.473 .708 .732 1.726 1. 706 1.745 1.699 1.656 1.661 1.669 1.689 1.718 1.738 1.765 1.774 1.649 1.643 1.638 1.637 1.630 1.649 1.664 1.650 1.285 1.290 1.291 1. 290 1. 183 1. 197 1.202 1. 185 1.044 1.050 1.045 .961 .974 .973 1.847 1.826 U. 847 1.701 1.694 1. 720 1.781 1.809 1.810 1.640 1.678 1.685 1 Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects. _8a Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base, first half of 1947= Preliminary estimate. 4 Based on pay period prior to coal stoppage. Source: Department of Labor, 24 First half of 1947 dollars a aoo. AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS March weekly earnings in retail trade and building construction and April earnings (preliminary) in manufacturing showed slight decreases, reflecting a moderately shorter workweek. DOLLARS PER WEEK DOLLARS PER WEEK MANUFACTURING RETAIL TRADE 60 CURRENT DOLLARS 1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS* 1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS 20 i i t t 1 i 1946 t i i i i I i i i i i 1946 t t t 1948 1947 BITUMINOUS COAL MINING i i i t t I i i t >i 1947 t i i >i I i i i I i 1948 PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION 100 100 80 CURRENT DOLLARS 1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS 1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS* 40 40 20 20 1 1J I i 1 l I I I I I I I I I I I l I 1I I I I I I I I I I l l 1 I t I 1I I I i I I 1946 1947 1948 1946 * EARNINGS DATA DISTORTED DURING THESE MONTHS BECAUSE OF WO/tH STOPPAGES Off VACATIONS. SOURCE'- DEPARTMENT #* CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED I M, MM 1 II 1947 BY CONSUMER'S II M M 1948 PRICE INDEX ON BASE 1ST HALF OF 194? » 100 OF LABOR. COUNCIL or ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Selected industries] Manufacturing Period Current dollars 1939 1941 1944 1945 1946 1947 monthly average monthly average monthly average _monthly average monthly average monthly average 1947: May June July . August September October November - _ . December.. 1948 • January February March 8 Anril3 - «•..-..-.---.-. .... _ --« «.-- - ---- First half of 1947 dollars2 Current dollars . First half of 1947 dollars2 Current dollars First half of 1947 dollars2 Private building construction l Current dollars First half of 1947 dollars 3 $23. 86 29.58 46.08 44.39 43. 74 49.25 $37. 28 43. 69 57.03 53. 74 48. 82 48. 10 $21. 17 21.94 26.58 28.31 32.55 36.70 $33.08 32.40 32.90 34.27 36.33 35.84 $23. 88 30.86 51.27 52.25 58. 03 66.82 $37. 31 45.58 63.45 63.26 64.77 65.25 $30. 39 35.14 52. 18 53.73 56. 24 63.28 $47.48 51.91 64.58 65.05 62.77 61.80 48.44 49. 33 48. 98 49. 17 50.47 51. 05 51.29 52.69 48. 25 48.79 48.07 47.65 47.88 48.43 48.34 49.01 36.50 37.82 37.99 38. 14 37.06 36.74 37.14 37.51 36. 35 37. 41 37. 28 36. 96 35. 16 34. 86 35.00 34. 89 65. 51 67. 09 54.87 70.23 71.19 71. 91 71.77 75.22 65.25 66. 36 53.85 68.05 67.54 68.23 67.64 69. 97 62.38 62.68 63.30 66.97 65.22 66.14 64.55 67. 31 62.13 52. 07 51. 79 52.07 51.56 47. 95 48.04 48.48 47. 35 37. 62 38.33 38.02 34. 64 35. 56 35.40 69.78 65.44 -69. 47 66.28 66. 31 66. 14 1 Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects. 1 Current dollars divided by consumers? price-index* on the base first half of 1947= aoo. •4 Preliminary estimate. Based on pay period prior to coal stoppage. Source: Department of Labor. Bituminous coal-mining Retail trade 4 75.78 70.54 74. 61 4 62.60 62.12 64.89 61.88 62. 75 60.84 62. 61 61.03 61.51 61.58 FARM INCOME The purchasing power of farm income in April continued considerably below last year's level. Dollar income was slightly above a year ago while prices paid were substantially higher. BILLIONS OF OOLLARS BILLIONS OF OOLLARS 4 1939 40 M A M J J A 41 M J J A S 1948 1947 * CASH RECEIPTS FROM MARKETING AND GOVERNMENT PAYMENTS. * * FARM INCOME IN CURRENT OOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, AND TAXES ON THE BASE 1939*100. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Period 1939 monthly 1940 monthly 1941 monthly 1942 monthly 1943 monthly 1944 monthly 1945 monthly 1946 monthly 1947 monthly average average average average average average average average average 1947: June July August September October November December 1948: January February March4 April 1 2 8 4 - __. Farm income (millions of current dollars) * 723 761 981 1, 340 1,678 1,753 1,857 2, 110 2,543 2,211 2,662 2,517 3,060 3,773 3, 109 2, 927 2,581 1,866 2,001 2, 096 Prices paid, interest, and taxes, 1939 = 100* Farm income, (millions of 1939 dollars)1 100.0 100. 8 106.5 121.0 130.6 136.3 138.7 155.6 186.3 185.5 185.5 188.7 191.9 192.7 194.4 197. 6 202. 4 200. 0 199.2 200. 8 Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments. Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1939=100. Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1939= aoo. Preliminary. Source: Department of Agriculture. 26 723 755 921 1, 107 1,285 1,286 1,339 1, 356 1,365 1, 192 1,435 1,334 1,595 1, 958 1,599 1,481 1, 276 933 1,005 1,044 AVERAGE FAMILY INCOME All groups received more income in 1946 than before the war. Greatest relative increases were in the lower and middle groups. FAMILIES* MONEY INCOME BEFORE TAXES, 1946 DOLLARS 4,000 . 6,000 2,000 GROUPED FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST INCOME 8,000 10,000 LOWEST FIFTH SECOND FIFTH THIRD FIFTH FOURTH FIFTH HIGHEST FIFTH "* INCLUDES SINGLE INDIVIDUALS. COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE; THE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JANUARY 1948. Money income before taxes, 1946 dollars Percent increase Families grouped from lowest to highest income l 1935-36 Lowest fifth Second fifth Third fifth Fourth fifth Highest fifth .•_ _-._--.----_.-.---.----.-.---.__ ^ . * .___ .-. Average for all families *-. '« - . 1941 1946 1935-36 to 1946 1941 to 1946 $446 969 1, 515 2, 284 5,928 $498 1, 275 2, 243 3, 225 7,418 $835 2,023 3,050 4, 201 8,921 87 109 101 84 50 68 59 36 30 20 2, 229 2,932 3,806 71 30 1 Includes single individuals.; i _ Source: The Economic Report of the President, January 1948, p. 18. 27 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Revised estimates of consumption expenditures for 1st quarter of 1948 iaclicate that the increase in expenditures for services more than offset the decrease in expenditures for durable goods. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 200 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES ANNUAL TOTALS TOTAL EXPENDITURES \ (50 150 too 100 NONDURABLE GOODS 50 1 1939 1944 1945 2 -I I 3 50 .1, 2 4 3 I I 4 2 34 1948 1947 1946 * PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE. S O U R C E . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Personal consumption expenditures Period Nondurable goods Total 19391944. 1945. 1946. 1947- 67.5 110.4 121.7 143.7 164.4 35.3 67.2 75.3 87. 1 99.3 Durable goods 6.7 6.8 8.0 14.9 19.8 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1947: First quarter— _ Second quarterThird quarter.. Fourth quarter . 1948: First quarter 3 1 Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding* Source: Department of Commerce, 28 Services 25.5 36.5 38.4 41.7 45.3 CONSUMER CREDIT A rise in instalment credit in April pushed total consumer credit to a new peak. 4 - 2 - 1929 1939 1941 END OF YEAR J 1943 F M A M J J A S O N O J F 1946 M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M 1947 END OF MONTH . J J A S O . 1948 * SINGLE PAYMENT LOANS AND SERVICE CREDIT SOURCE: Boord of Govei [Billions of dollars] End of period 1929 1939. - 1948: January _ _ February March April 7. 6 3.2 9. 9 5. 3 6. 6 10.2 13. 4 1941_.-i -_ _ -. .__ -_. . - _ Instalment creditl 8.0 1943 1945-. 1946 1947 1947: May June « _ July August September October November December Total consumer credit outstanding _ _ _ _- _ -_ -_ __ 4. 4 5. 9 2.0 Charge accounts 1.7 1.5 1.8 1. 5 2.0 2. 4 4. 0 3. 1 10.9 11. 2 11. 3 11. 4 11. 7 12. 1 12. 6 13. 4 4.7 4. 9 2.8 2.9 5.2 5.3 5. 5 5. 7 2.8 2.9 13. 0 12.9 13.4 13.6 6.2 3.6 Other consumer credit2 2.7 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.3 3.1 3.6 5.0 2.8 6.2 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 6.2 6.2 6.5 6.7 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 1 Includes automobile and other sale credit and repair and modernization loans insured by Federal Hous* ing Administration. 2 Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. N O Section F: MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS Preliminary estimates of commercial bank loans at the end of April showed no significant change from the March figure. Investments in U.S. securities increased $ 8 0 0 million. 8ILLI0NS OF OOLLAR$ BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 125 125 T O T A L (All commercial banks) 100 100 SECURITIES 75 75 50 50 25 25 I 1929 J 1939 1945 F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A P 1947 ENO OF YEAR M J J I 1 I A S O 1 I ' N 1948 1948 I D 1 1 I J F M A 1• I M J I J 1 I A S 1 1 O N D 1949 END OF MONTH PR EL IMINA RY ES TIMA TE SOURCE: Boord of Governors Council of Economic Advisers [Billions of dollars] Loans and investments, all commercial banks Investments End of period Total Bank loans Total U. S. Government securities Other securities 1929. 19391945. 1946. 1947- 49. 5 40.7 124 0 114. 0 116.4 36.0 17.2 26. 1 31. 1 38.1 13.5 23.4 97.9 82.9 78.3 4.8 16.3 90.6 74.8 69.3 8.7 7. 1 7.3 8. 1 9.0 1947: May June July August SeptemberOctober NovemberDecember- . 112.9 112.8 113.4 114.0 115.2 116.3 116.6 116.3 33. 1 33.7 34.0 34.9 35.5 36.8 37.6 38.1 79.8 79.1 79.4 79. 1 79.7 79.5 79.0 78.2 71.5 70.5 70.7 70.3 70.8 70.5 70.1 69.2 8.3 8.5 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0 8.9 9.0 1948: January-FebruaryMarch April1--. 116.6 115.5 113.6 114. 3 38.2 38.7 38.9 38. 8> 78.4 76.9 74.7 75.5 69.4 67.9 65.5 66.3 9.0 9.0 9.3 9.2 1 30 Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. MONEY SUPPLY Private demand deposits increased slightly in April after falling steadily since December. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 150 150 .TOTAL 125 - 125 -100 100 75 75 50 50 m 25 25 w m 1929 1939 1941 1943 1 1 i 1946 J F M A M J J A S O N O J i i J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 1946 1945 END OF YEAR F M A M J 1947 1948 ^PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE END OF MONTH SOURCE: Board of Governors [Billions of dollars] Total money supply End of period 1929 1939 . 1941 __. _ 1943 1945 1946 1947 1947* Mav June July August September October November December , 1948* January February March April 3 . J _-. --_ _ _ .. ; - - „- 26. 5 37.0 50.5 90. 1 126.9 113. 1 115. 1 109. 8 109. 8 110. 6 111. 3 112. 5 113.5 114.4 115. 1 113. 7 112. 2 109.6 110.9 Currency outside banks 3.6 6.4 9.6 18. 8 26.5 26.7 26. 5 26. 1 26.3 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.3 26.6 26.5 25.8 25.7 25.6 25.5 Adjusted demand deposits * 22.8 29.8 39.0 60. 8 75.9 83.3 87. 2 81. 5 82. 1 83. 2 83. 4 84.2 85.4 85.9 87.2 86.6 84.6 81.6 83.0 U. S. Government deposits 2 0.2 .8 1.9 10.4 24.6 3. 1 1. 4 2. 2 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.8 2.4 2.4 1 Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection. 2 Beginning December 1938, includes U. S. Treasurer's time deposits, open account. 3 Preliminary estimate. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 31 FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC The excess of Federal cash receipts over cash payments in the first quarter 1948 was $ 6.4 billion as compared with $ 5.2 billion in the first quarter 1947. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF OOLLARS 20 20 QUARTERLY TOTALS, NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL 15 15 10 10 CASH PAYMENTS I 2 3 1946 2 2 3 3 1948 1947 * PR£UNINA*Y ESTIMATE SOURCE: TREASURY DEPARTMENT COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Calendar year and quarter 1946: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1947: First quarter. Second quarter Third quarter. Fourth quarter 1948: First quarter'1 Federal cash receipts from the public Federal cash payments to the public 14,153 11, 098 10, 377 9,870 14, 962 11, 430 10, 470 10,011 15, 732 13, 648 13, 599 9,106 8,909 9,772 12, 198 10, 503 8,666 9,322 Excess of receipts (4-) or payments (—) + 505 -2,501 + 1,271 + 961 + 5, 190 -768 -33 + 1,345 + 6,410 1 Preliminary estimate. Source: Treasury Department. U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE ' * • * •