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80th Congress, 2d Session

Joint Committee Print

Economic Indicators
JUNE 1948

Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council
of Economic Advisers and printed for the use of the Joint Committee on
the Economic Report




UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1948

JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio, Chairman
JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan, Vice Chairman
GEORGE H. BENDER, Ohio
CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts
ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania
EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey
WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas
WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio

JOSEPH H. BALL, Minnesota
RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont
ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah
JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming
FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania
JOHN SPARKMAN, Alabama

CHARLES O. HARDY, Staff Director
FRED E. BERQUIST, Assistant Staff Director
J O H N W. LEHMAN, Clerk
WILLIAM H . MOORE, Economist

This is the second issue of a set of basic charts and tables
assembled by the Council of Economic Advisers and released through the Joint Committee on the Economic Report. As was said by Vice-Chairman Wolcott in transmitting the previous issue to the Members of Congress,
"From the time the Joint Committee on the Economic
Report was established, its members realized that one of its
basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of current
economic trends and developments.
*
*
*
*
*
"Other Members of Congress have also expressed an interest in being able to obtain a quick picture of .current
economic facts. * * * In addition, businessmen, farm
leaders, labor organizations, and representatives of the press
and radio have indicated their desire for this information."

ii



Economic Indicators, which was developed by the Council
of Economic Advisers for use of the President, the Council,
and other officials in the Executive offices and made available to the Joint Committee on the Economic Report,
seemed to fill this need admirably. Accordingly, the Committee decided to provide Congress and the public with a
limited number of copies of Economic Indicators for May 1948.
If the report received a favorable reaction from the Members of Congress it would be continued on a regular
monthly basis. While action has not been taken on its
continuing publication, response to the first issue of Economic Indicators has been so encouraging that the committee has again arranged for a committee print pending
final decision.
Additional comments or suggestions with respect to possible improvements in this presentation will be appreciated.

Contents
Section A: THE NATION'S ECONOMIC
BUDGET
The Nation's Economic Budget
Section B: PRICES
Consumers' Prices,
Wholesale Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
Stock Prices

2
3
4
5

Section C: EMPLOYMENT
Labor Force
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours
Work Stoppages

6
7
8
9

Section D: PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS
ACTIVITY
Industrial Production
Production of Selected Durable Manufactures. . . .
Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures.
New Construction
New Housing Starts
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
New Corporate Security Issues




1

10
11
12
13
14
15
16

Section D: PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS
ACTIVITY—Continued
Inventories and Sales
17
Exports and Imports
18
Section E: PURCHASING POWER
National Income
Corporate Profits
Personal Income
Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving
Per Capita Income
Average Hourly Earnings
Average Weekly Earnings
Farm Income
Average Family Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Consumer Credit

19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29

Section F: MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
Bank Loans and Investments.
30
Money Supply
31
Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the
Public
32

iii




Section A: THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
Rising trend of total income and expenditures continued in 1st. quarter of 1948; business outlays, particularly
inventories, showed a marked increase and net foreign investment, a decided drop.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

THE NATION'S ECONOMIC
BUDGET TOTAL*
250

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

CONSUMERS

BUSINESS

250

(Gross National Product)

50
EXCESS OF
EXPENDITURES

-

EXPENDITURES

25

RECEIPTS \

I

200

200

EXPENDITURES

1946

1947

INCOME

I
I 50

INTERNATIONAL

150

25
NET FOREIGN INVESTMENT

V/M

100

I

100

I
1947

1948
1st Qr**

EXCESS OF RECEIPTS

50

50

1946

1948
I St Or

GOVERNMENT
75

50

\///A
1947

1946

1947

1946

25

1947

1946

1948
1st Or*

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IS LESS THAN THE SUM OF THE ACCOUNTS OF NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
BECAUSE OF CERTAIN ADJUSTMENTS. FOR DETAIL, SEE APPENDIX A OF THE PRESIDENT'S ECONOMIC REPORTS.

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BUREAU OF THE BUDGET.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A0VI3ERS

[Billions of dollars]
Calendar year 1946
Account

Excess of
Excess of
Re- Expend- receipts (+) Re- Expend- receipts (+)
ceipts itures or expendi- ceipts itures or expenditures (—)
tures (—)

Consumers:
Disposable income
158.4
143.7
Expenditures
Saving (+)
_ ._
Business:
13.3
Undistributed profits and reserves.. _
Gross private domestic investment
.
24.6
Excess of receipts (+) or investment (—)
International:
Net foreign investment
4.8
Excess of receipts (+) or investment (—)
Government (Federal, State, and local):
Cash receipts from the public
-- 56.5
Cash Davments to the Dublic
55.2
Excess1 of receipts (+) or Davments (—)
-22.3 -24.5
Adjustments
0
Statistical discrepancy _
-2.1
Total gross national product- _ -—. . _ . _ -

Calendar year 1947

203. 7

203. 7

175.3
+ 14.8
17. 6
-11.3

164. 4
27. 8
8.7

-4.8
59.3

53. 4

+ 1.3
+2.1 - 1 8 . 2 - 2 4 . 7
-2. 1 -4.4
0

229. 6 229.6

Calendar year 1948, first quarter, annual
rates, seasonally adjusted

Receipts

186. 1

+ 10.9
18.9

-10.2

62.3

0

173.2
36. 0
4.2

-8.7
+5.9
+ 6.5
-4.4

Expenditures

51. 4

-17.7 -20.4
-5. 3
244.3

244.3

Excess of
receipts (+)
or expenditures (—)

+ 12.9
-17. 1
» 4 2

+ 10.9
+2.7
-5.3
0

1
Adjustments must be made to insure that Nation's Economic Budget total is equal to current production of goods and services. The adjustments
eliminate double counting, such as payments to social security beneficiaries and veterans' pensions, which are reflected in government account as well as in
consumers' account. For detail, see Appendix A of the President's Economic Reports.
*
'
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding*
Sources: Department of Commerce and Bureau of the Budget.
- ..,.

Section B: PRICES
CONSUMERS' PRICES
After dropping for two months, consumers' prices turned up again and reached an all-time high in April.
Food prices increased sharply.
PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9

PERCENT OF 1935*39

AVERAGE

AVERAGE

200

200

175

150

125

100

100

75

0

H I I I 1 I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I 1 1 I I I I I I ! I 1 I 1 1 I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I 1 1 I I l l I I I I I I I I I I

• 939

1940

1941

1942

1943

1944

I I I I I 1 I I I I I

1 I 1 I I I I I I I 1

1945
GOODS AND SERVICES,

1948

1947

ALSO INCLUDES HOUSEFURNISHINGS, FUEL, ELECTRICITY,
AND MISCELLANEOUS

I I 1 I I 1 I I I I I I

1946
ICE,

NOT SHOWN ON CHART.

SOURCE: Deportment of Labor.




Council of Economic Advisers

[1935-39=100]
Period
1939 monthly
1940 monthly
1941 monthly
1942 monthly
1943 monthly
1944 monthly
1945 monthly
1946 monthly
1947 monthly

All items»

Food

Clothing

Rent

average.
average.
average.
average.
average
average.
average.
average
average

99.4
100.2
105.2
116.5
123.6
125.5
128.4
139.3
159.2

95.2
96.6
105.5
123.9
138.0
136. 1
139. 1
159.6
193.8

100.5
101.7
106.3
124.2
129.7
138.8
145.9
160. 2
185. 8

104.3
104.6
106.2
108.5
108.0
108.2
108.3
108.6
111.2

1947: May
June.
-__
July.
....
August.
-_
September
October-.
-.
November
December

156.0
157. 1
158.4
160. 3
163.8
163.8
164.9
167.0

187. 6
190.5
193. 1
196.5
203.5
201.6
202. 7
206.9

185.0
185.7
184.7
185.9
187.6
189.0
190.2
191.2

109. 2
109.2
110.0
111.2
113.6
114.9
115. 2
115.4

1948; January
February
March
April

168.8
167.5
166.9
169.3

209.7
204. .7
202.3
207.9

192. 1
195. 1
196.3
196.4

115.9
116.0
116.3
116.3

2

Also includes housefurnishings, fuel, electricity, ice, and miscellaneous goods and services.
NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities*
Source: Department of Labor.




WHOLESALE PRICES
Most wholesale prices fluctuated within a narrow range in May.

PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE
220

PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE
WEEKLY INDEX

200

200
FARM PRODUCTS-

180

180

160

160

• ••••••«#»•••••**

ALL COMMODITIES

140

140

OTHER THAN FARM AND POODS
t 20

120

100

..4.«.f##7

I

I

O

M

J

F

SOURCE:

M

A

I

I
J

A

I

I

S

O

100
N

0

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

0

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

COUNCIL. OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

[1926=100]

All commod- Farm prodities
ucts

Week ended—

1946: J a n . 5
June 29
Sept 28
Dec. 28

- . - _
_.---,
_

.
--

1947: Mar. 29
June 28
Sept. 27
Dec 27

- -

-•

- --

1948: Jan. 17
Feb 14
21

_

Mar, 6
13
20
27
Apr. 3
10
17
24
May 1

8
15
22
29—

O

-

-

.

....

--

... _
_.

Source: Department of Labor.

_

_

_
'

Foods

Other than
farm and
foods

106. 8
112. 7
124.4
139. 6
149.4
147. 6
156. 2
163. 0
165. 5

131.3
140. 3
156. 6
167.7
183.8
179. 0
184.7
197.0
201.5

108.0
113.4
133.0
159. 1
166.5.
162. 2
177.6
177.8
181.2

100. 6
105.4
112.4
123.9
131. 9
132.0
138.2
146.0
147.4

159. 7
159. 2
160.4
159. 8
161. 5
161. 1

180. 9
181. 7
187. 1
184. 9
187.6
186.2

173.3
170. 3
172.2
171.2
176.4
174.8

160. 1
160. 6
162. 9
163. 6
162.6
161. 9
163. 5
163. 5
164*4

183. 9
183. 1
189.2
188. 9
186. 9
184. 0
187. 9
189.2
173. 0

172.4
174.5
178.8
180.4
177.5
174.8
178. 9
177.2
178.0

147.5
147.5
147.3
147.3
147.3
147.4
147.7
147. 9
148.3
149.0
148.7
148.9
149.0
149.2
149.3

PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received by farmers showed little change in May. Prices paid by farmers have been relatively
stable since the first of the year.
PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE
350

PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE
350
MONTHLY AVERAGE

300

300

PRICES RECEIVED

250

250

200

200

PRICES PAID
(INCt. INTEREST, TAXES)

150

150

*»-»•-•--+"
JOO

100

PARITY RATIO*

50

50

I
1939
*

40

41

42

43

44

I I I I I I I I 1I I
45

F M A M J

J

A S O N O

I I I I I 1 I I I I i
F M A M J

1946

J A S O N O J

1947

I I I I I
F M A M J

RATIO OP PRICES RECEIVED TO PRICES PA 10, INTEREST, AND TAXES.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1910-14=100]

Period

1939 monthly
1940 monthly
1941 monthly
1942 monthly
1943 monthly
1944 monthly
1945 monthly
1946 monthly
1947 monthly

averageaverageaverage .
averageaverageaverage _
average _
averageaverage-

Prices
received *

Prices paid, including inter- Parity ratio 3
est and taxes

95
100
124
159
192
195
202
233
278

124
125
132
150
162
169
172
193
231

77
80
94
106
119
115
117
121
120

1947: June
July
August
September _
October
NovemberDecember..

271
276
276
286
289
287
301

230
230
234
238
239
241
245

118
120
118
120
121
119
123

1948: January.FebruaryMarch
•April
May

307
279
283
291
289

251
248
247
249
250

122
112
115
117
116

* August 1909-July 1914=100.
Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and taxes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
2




0

1948

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.

4

I I 1 t I
J A S O N

STOCK PRICES
In May, industrial and railroad stocks reached the highest level since August 1946.
PERCENT OF 1935 - 39 AVERAGE
175

PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 AVERAGE
175

MONTHLY AVERAGE

I 50

150

125

125

100

100

50

I
1939

*

40

AVERAGE

SOURCE

41

OF WEEKLY

42

43

44

45

J F M A M J J A S O N D - J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A

I I I

DATA THROUGH MAY 2 6

STANDARD AND POOR'S CORPORATION.

COUNCIL

OF ECONOMIC

[1935-39 = 100]

Period

'Combined in- Industrials (354
dex (402
stocks)
stocks)

1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average
1941 monthly average.
1942 monthly average
• 1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average.
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: June
July
August
September
October
November
December

--

1948: January
February
March
April 1
May
1

Average of weekly data through May 26.
Source: Standard & Poor's Corp.

76957—48




8

I I I

M~J J A S O N O

Railroads (20
stocks)

Utilities (28
stocks)

94.2
88.1
80.0
69.4
91.9
99.8
121. 5
139.9
123.0

94.8
"87. 9
80.4
71.3
94. 1
101.7
123.3
143.4
128.0

74.7
71. 1
70.6
66. 1
88.7
101.0
136.9
143.0
105.3

98.6
95.8
81.0
61.3
82. 1
89.9
106. 1
120.2
102.9

119. 1
126.0
124.5
123. 1
125. 1
123.6
122.4

124. 1
131.7
130.2
128.4
131. 1
130.3
129.2

97.6
108.2
105.2
103.6
104.2
100. 1
103.9

100.8
102.2
101.4
102.0
101.0
97.2
94.0

120. 1
114.2
116.4
124.6
130.2

126.0
119.2
121.8
130.8
137.0

106.5
101.9
105.2
115.2
122.6

95.1
92.6
93.0
96.2
99.2

ADVISERS

Section C: EMPLOYMENT
LABOR FORCE
While seasonal increases expanded the labor force by about 750,000 in April, the seasonal increase in employment,
particularly in agriculture, reduced unemployment by more than 200,000, following a like decrease the preceding month.

75

MILLIONS OF PERSONS -

- MILLIONS OF PERSONS

75

TOTAL
LABOR FORCE

50

50

25

I
MONTHLY

AVERAGE

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

I 1 II
A

S

0

N

D

UNEMPLOYED-MAGNIFIED SCALE

I

1944 1945 1946

t

...I....1 1 t..

i

1947

1946

1948

SOURCE: Oeportment of Commerce.

Council of Economic Advisers

[Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over]

Period

1941 monthly
1944 monthly
1945 monthly
1946 monthly
1947 monthly

Total labor
force, including
armed
forces

Civilian employed
Total

In nonagricultural
industries

average
average
average
average
average

57,
65,
65,
60,
61,

380
890
140
820
608

50,
53,
52,
55,
58,

1947: May
...
June
July
.
August. _^
September
October
November. . . , .
December

61,
64,
64,
63,
62,
62,
61,
60,

760
007
035
017
130
219
510
870

58, 330
60, 055
60, 079
59, 569
58,872
59, 204
58, 595
57, 947

49,
49,
50,
50,
50,
50,
50,
50,

1948: January
February
March_April
May

60,
61,
61,
61,
61,

455
004
005
760
660

57, 149
57, 139
57,329
58, 330
58, 660

50,
50,
50,
50,
50,

NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.




350
960
820
250
027

41, 250
45, 010
44, 240
46, 930
49,761

In agriculture

Armed
forces

Unemployed

9, 100
8, 950
8,580
8,320
8,266

1, 470
11,260
11, 280
3,300
1, 440

5,560
670
1,040
2,270
2, 142

370
678
013
594
145
583
609
985

8,960
10, 377
10, 066
8,975
8, 727
8,622
7,985
6,962

1,470
1,397
1,371
1,352
1, 346
1,327
1, 294
1, 280

1,960
2,555
2,584
2,096
1,912
1,687
1,621
1,643

089
368
482
883
800

7,060
6,771
6,847
7,448
7,861

1,242
1, 226
1,236
1,237
1, 238

2,065
2,639
2, 440
2,193
1,761




NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT *
The April drop in manufacturing and trade employment was partially offset by an increase in
other nonagricultura! industries.
MILLIONS OF EMPLOYEES

MILLIONS OF EMPLOYEES

60

,60
MONTHLY AVERAGE

50

50
TOTAL

40

40

30

30
FEDERAL,STATE,AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT

20

20

I0

10

1939w

1941

1944

1945

SEE FOOTNOTE I ON OPPOSITE PAGE.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

COUNCIL

OF ECONOMIC

ADVISERS

[Thousands of employees]

Period

1939 monthly
1941 monthly
1944 monthly
1945 monthly
1946 monthly
1947 monthly

average.
average.
average.
average.
average.
average.

Total wage
and salary
workers *
30,
36,
41,
39,
40,
42,

287
164
480
977
712
539

Manufacturing

Trade

Federal,
State, and
local
government

Other

10, 078
12, 974
17,111
15, 302
14, 365
15, 553

6,705
7,567
7,399
7,654
8,448
8,712

3,987
4,622
6,026
5,967
5,595
5,411

9,517
11, 001
10, 944
11, 054
12, 305
12, 863

1947: May
June.
July
August
September.
October
November.
December.

41,919
42, 363
42, 201
42, 624
43, 039
43, 298
43, 450
44, 078

15,
15,
15,
15,
15,
15,
15,
15,

237
328
233
595
801
831
872
964

8,545
8,582
8,558
8,586
8,688
8,889
9,075
9,453

5,447
5,399
5,281
5,288
5,425
5,469
5,450
5,653

12, 690
13, 054
13, 129
13, 155
13, 125
13, 109
13, 053
13, 007

1948: January..
FebruaryMarch2
April -..

43,
42,
42,
42,

15,
15,
15,
15,

878
785
875
531

8,821
8,727
8,806
8, 771

5,417
5,387
5,426
5,451

12, 899
12, 781
12, 873
12, 955

015
680
980
708

1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during
the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel
of the armed forces. Not comparable with estimates for npnagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, as reported by Department of Commerce, because latter includes self-employed, proprietors, and domestic servants, counts as employed persons not at work
because of industrial disputes, and are based on population enumeration whereas estimates in this table are based on establishment
reports.
2
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.

AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS
Weekly hours for April declined in manufacturing, largely because of steel curtailments and
seasonal factors in the soft goods industries.
HOURS PER WEEK

HOURS PER WEEK

ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
50

BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
50

MONTHL

40

MONTHLY

ftVE RAC,E

.A «

\

40

\

30

30

20

20

I 0

I 0

M M
1939

41

44

^JjLJLJLLJL

I I I I I 1 I I I I I

.....1,,...

1947

1946

1946

45

U

IM
1939 41

44

45

11

l i ' l " '
1948

1947

1946

RETAIL TRADE

PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
bU

,
JJJL

50
MONTHLY

AVERAGE

An

40

30

30

2 0

20

1 O

«^§

10

•

1111111111

0
1939

41

44

45

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT

i

1946

I I I !

I I t 1 j | 1
1947

. . . . .

1 . . . . .

I

1948

1939

41

44 . 45

. . . . .

1946

OF LABOR.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

average.
average.
average.
average.
average.
average.

All manufacturing
industries

Bituminous
coal mining

Private building construction 1

27. 1
31.1
43.4
42.3
41.6
40.7

32.6
34.8
39.6
39.0
38. 1
37.8

43.0
42.5
40.3
40.3
40.5
40. 2

1947: May
June
July
August
September.
October
November.
December.

40. 1
40.2
39.8
39.8
40.4
40.6
40.4
41.2

44.3
43.7
31.8
39. 1
39.1
39.9
38.5
41.2

37.7
37.7
37.9
39.7
38.0
38.0
36.6
37.9

40.0
40.8
41. 1
41.0
40.0
40.0
39.5
39.7

1948:

40.5
40. 1
40.3
40.0

40.9
38.7

37.2
36.7
36.5

39.8
40.0
39.5

1

8 40.4

Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
* Preliminary estimate.
8
Based on pay period prior to coal stoppage.
Source: Department of Labor,

8



Retail trade

37.7
40.6
45.2
43.4
40.4
40. 3

January._
February.
March 2 ..
April*....

,

1948

[Hours per week, selected industries]

1939 monthly
1941 monthly
1944 monthly
1945 monthly
1946 monthly
1947 monthly

|

1
1947

WORK STOPPAGES
In April, 8 million workdays were lost as work stoppages continued in bituminous coal mining and
meat-packing industries.
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE

MILLIONS OF MAN-OAYS (OLE

25

25
I STEEL, AUTOMOBILE

20

20

15

15

10
PEAK MONTH

COAL,
MEATPACKING

iHiil
MONTHLY
AVERAGE

u -I

Bill
iii||i

ppii \ pjii

Iill

\P

jHLJI

f :V •

iii tVi iiiiiiiiiiii

IpljiliuJ

•'

1939 40 41 42 43 44 45

M i l l

I l l l l l l

J F MA M J J A S O N O

J F

M A MJ J A S

1946

DUF

M A * M J J A S O N D

1947

1948

* PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

76957—48—^-4



COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC

Period

Man-days
idle
(thousands)
1,484
4,902
559
1,921
7,113
349
1, 125
4,699

1939: Monthly average
April—peak month.
1940: Monthly average
1941: Monthly average
April—peak month
1942:
Monthly average
1943:
Monthly average
June—peak month
1944:
1945: Monthly average
Monthly average
1946:
October—peak month.
1947: Monthly average
1947: May
Monthly average
June
July
August
September.
October
November.
December .
1948: January
February..
March..
April *
Preliminary estimate.

ADVISERS

Principal stoppage

Coal.
Coal.
Coal.

727

3,168
8,610
9,672
2,908
6,800
4,000
4,000
2,500
2,000
1,900
700
500
1,000
725
6,000
8,000

Coal.

Telephone.

Coal, meat packing.
Coal, meat packing.

Source: Department of Labor.

9

Section D: PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS
ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Industrial production dropped again in April because of a decrease in durable goods manufacturing.
Substantial recovery in May is indicated by preliminary figures.
PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

250

250

200

200

150

150

§

100

100

50

50

AVERAGE

AVERAGE

AVERAGE

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

1946

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

O

J

F

M

mlJ_j_j_l
A * M *J J A S 0

1947

N

D

1948
* PRELIM IN AR Y E5 TIMA TE

S O U R C E : Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve S y s t e m

[1935-39 = 100, seasonally adjusted]
Points in total index,
1935-39 average for total= 100

Indexes, 1935-39 = 100
Period

1935-39 monthly-average_
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1948 January. .
February.
March
April i . _ .
May *
1




10

Preliminary estimate-.

Total
industrial
production
100
239
203
170
187

Manufactures
Total

Durable
goods

184
176
182
187
190
192
192

100
258
214
177
193
191
183
188
192
197
199
198

100
360
274
192
220
219
207
210
217
223
224
229

193
194
192
187
191

200
201
200
194
196

229
226
229
217
223

Manufactures
Nondurable goods

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

100
176
166
165
172
168
163
169
172
176
178
173
178
180
177
176
175

Mining
100
132
137
134
149
148
140
150
153
155
155
156
154
155
142.
147
160

Durable
goods
38
136
104
73
83
83
79
80
83
84
85
87
87
86
87
82
85

Nondurable goods
47
83
78
7781
79
76
79
80
83
84
81
83
84
83
83
82

Mining
15
20
2.1
21
23
23
21
23
23
24
24
24
23
24
22
22
24

PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE
MANUFACTURES
Production of iron and steel in April was down 15 percent as a result of the coal shortage.

PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 39 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 AVERAGE

TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT

LUMBER AND PRODUCTS
400

800

MONTHLY AVERAGE

300

700
jiSj

600

200

•*%

m
500

100

I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 .1

400

1935-39 1943 1945

1946

, . ii

1 . . . . .

, i > . i 1 . i . i .

1948

1947

IRON AND I STEEL

300-

300

v>—

200

200

100

n

100

Mil

1935-39 1943 1945

1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1946

1947

V
i

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1948

1935-39

1943 1945

IMMIM.,.1947

1946

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.




•v-

M l . . ! .

1 1 1

1948

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Period

Transportation
equipment

Lumber and
products

Iron and steel

1935-39 monthly average_
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average

100
734
487
232
230

100
130
110
130
144

100
208
183
150
195

1947: May
June
July
August
September.
October, _..
November.
December..

225
233
217
213
227
232
234
243

142
142
133
142
140
143
150
153

197
193
181
188
195
204
202
205

1948: January__
February.

244
231
242
238

156
150
151
141

203
203
207
177

March
April L__.
1

Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,

11

PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE
MANUFACTURES
The o u t p u t of most nondurable i n d u s t r i e s showed l i t t l e change in A p r i l .
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS

TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS
300

300

MONTHLY AVERAG E

MONTHLY AVERAGE

200

200

1,00

100

II

jjiij

1 1 1 1 1 1 11 II1 1
11
11
1 1 1 1 1 1
1936-39

43

1946

45

1948

1947

1935-39

43

MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS

1948

1947

1946

45

CHEMICAL PRODUCTS

400

400
MONTHLY AVERAGE

MONTHLY
AVERAGE

300

300

200

200

--"
•

100

0

I

1935-39

100

Mil
43

45

1 1 1 1 11 111 11 1
1946

1 1 1 1 1 1

1947

M . . .1 . . . . .
1948

I

1935-39

1M II 1 II 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 111 |111 111

43

45

1947

1946

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC

[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]

Period

Textiles and
products

Chemical
products

100
153
146
162
163

100
185
235
173
193

100
145
151
150
157

100
384
284
236
251

1947: May
June
July
August
September.
October
November.
December.

164
155
142
154
160
164
172
163

184
191
195
201
203
204
205
208

155
154
155
157
158
156
158
157

253
250
251
249
248
248
251
255

1948: January..
February.
March
April i....

178
179
175
172

214
214
212
210

158
160
159
160

255
251
249
248

Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




Manufactured food
products

1935-39 monthly average.
1943 monthly average;
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average

1

12

Petroleum
and coal
products

1 \ \ 1 1

1948

ADVISERS

NEW CONSTRUCTION
Preliminary estimates indicate that construction continued its seasonal increase in May.

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

2,000


76957—18


2,000

MONTHLY AVERAGE

TOTAL
NEW CONSTRUCTION ,

1,500

1,500

FEDERAL,
STATE, AND
LOCAL*

1,000

1,000
TOTAL>
PRIVATE

OTHER PRIVATE
500

500

RESIDENTIAL NONFARM

1939 1942 1944 1945 1946 1947
* INCLUDES PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

O

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

CONSTRUCTION

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

COUNCIL

OF

ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars]
Private construction
Period

Total new
construction
V

Total
private

Residential
(nonfarm)

Other

Federal,
State, and
local»

526
1, 118
345
401
871
1, 165

317
251
152
226
688
908

176
110
45
57
265
438

141
141
107
169
422
469

208
867
193
174
184
257

1947: June
July
August
September _
October
November
December

1, 162
1,264
1, 364
1,423
1,497
1,432
1, 320

885
966
1,042
1,086
1, 129
1, 141
1,097

405
455
500
540
590
630
610

480
511
542
546
539
511
487

277
298
322
337
368
291
223

19481 January

1, 157
1,009
1, 166
1,302
1,449

948
837
940
1,015
1,111

500
400
475
525
575

448
437
466
490
536

209
172
226
287
338

1939
1942
1944
1945
1946
1947

monthly
monthly
monthly
monthly
monthly
monthly

March
April
May 2

averaee
averaee
average
average
average
average

_„

1

Includes public residential construction.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.

2

5

13

NEW HOUSING STARTS"
The 9 0 , 0 0 0 nonfarm dwelling units in April were not far below 1947 peak reached in October. During the first four
months of this year, starts were about 2 5 percent above the same period a year ago.
THOUSANOS OF UNITS

THOUSANDS OF UNITS
100

too

80

60

40

20

20

*

NEW NONFARM FAMILY DWELLING UNITS.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.




COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC AOVISERS

Period

and
New nonfarm units (conventional
prefabricated) l
Total

Urban

Rural nonfarm

1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average.

64, 683
71, 125

41, 164
40, 125

23, 520
31, 000

1947: January
February...
March
April
May
June
July
August
September.
October
November.
December..

39, 300
42, 800
56, 700
67, 900
73, 100
79, 400
81, 100
86, 800
93, 800
94, 000
79, 800
58,800

24, 200
25, 000
32,300
38, 000
39, 300
43, 000
44, 500
47, 400
50, 300
53, 200
48,000
36,300

15, 100
17, 800
24,400
29, 900
33, 800
36, 400
36, 600
39, 400
43, 500
40,800
31, 800
22,500

1948: January-FebruaryMarch 2_, April »-.-

50, 000
47, 200
70, 000
90,000

30,400
28, 800
41, 800
54,000

19,600
18, 400
28, 200
36, 000

1

New nonfarm family dwelling Units. Temporary units are excluded after 1947 when the program ended.
Preliminary estimate.
|
NoTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Labor.

2

EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT
AND EQUIPMENT
Recent surveys indicate that business, exclusive of agriculture, expects to spend $18.6 billion on
new plant and equipment in 1948, or 15 percent more than was actually spent last year.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25
ANNUAL TOTALS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS .

25
ANNUAL RATES*

-PLANNED-

-ACTUAL-

15

TRANSPORTATION AND
ELECTRIC AND GAS
•UTILITIES

10

MANUFACTURE
AND
MINING

1939

1941

1945

2

I

3

2

*

MOT

ADJUSTED

FOR SEASONAL

2ND HALF
1948

1946
VARIATION.

SOURCES; SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE,

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC AOVtSERS

[Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal]

Period

Total *

Manufacturing

Transportation
Mining
Railroad

Other

Electric and Commercial
miscelgas utilities and
laneous %

..-.
-_-.

5,200
8,190
6,630
12, 040
16, 200
18, 620

1,930
3,400
3,210
5,910
7,460
7,760

380
680
440
560
690
690

280
560
550
570
920
1,540

280
340
320
660
800
780

480
710
630
1,040
1,900
2,300

1,850
2,490
1,480
3,300
4,430
5,560

1947: Third quarter. _.
Fourth quarter..

16, 560
19, 840

7,480
9, 160

720
840

920
1,240

800
760

2,000
2,480

4,640
5,360

1948: First quarter 3 ...
3
Second quarter
.
8
Second half

17, 920
19, 120
18, 740

7, 760
8,000
7,640

800
760
620

1,360
1,560
1,620

720
840
780

2,040
2,400
2,400

5,280
5, 600
5,680

1939
1941
1945
1946
1947
1948*

--...

1
2
1

Excludes agriculture.
Includes trade, service, finance, and communication.
Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business.
.
NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because
the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal
Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other data. Detail will not necessarily add to totals becausefiguresare rounded
to the nearest 10,000,000.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted).




15

NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES
In the first quarter of 1948 new issues, less than the previous quarter, were above the 1947
average. New money accounted for a larger part of the total.
BILLIONS OP DOLLARS
3.0

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

30
QUARTERLY AVERAGE

2.5

2.5

20

2.0

1.5

1.5

RETIREMENT OF
DEBT AMD STOCK

I

1.0

I

1.0

I
1943

1939

1945

I

I

.5

I
I*

2
3
1946

2

3

4

1948

* INCLUDES PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE FOR MARCH

SOURCE: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars]
Proposed uses of net proceeds
Period

1939 quarterly
1943 quarterly
1945 quarterly
1946 quarterly
1947 quarterly

average .
average .
average.
average.
average.

Estimated net
proceeds

81
77
270
820
1,068

448
210
1,206
869
460

1947: First quarter. _.
Second quarter.
Third quarter. _.
Fourth quarter.

1,018
1,605
1,267
2,222

673
932
797
1,867

344
672
469
354

1948: First quarter *_.

1,613

1,400

214

1

Includes small amount for other purposes.
Includes preliminary estimate for March.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.




Retirement of
debt and
stock l

529
287
1,476
1,689
1, 528

2

16

New money

INVENTORIES AND SALES
Inventories continued to rise slightly in value in March. Department store sales increased more
than seasonally in April and preliminary sales data for May indicate a further rise.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

WHOLESALE

MANUFACTURING
30

30
NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION

^ "

—#

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

INVENTORIES*

20

SALESJ

^^^^

SALES*
1 0

10

^INVENTORIES*
i

i

i

i i

I

i i i

1946

i i

II

i i i I i i
1947

ti

1 . •• , . ,
1948

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

i i i i i 1 i
1947

0
1946

i i t t

i i i i i 1 i i i i i
1948

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

RETAIL

DEPARTMENT STORES

30

400
SEASONALLY AOJUSTED

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SALES « *

300

INVENTORIES**

200

I I I I I I I I I I

1946

1947

1,

i i i 1 1

1 00

1948

1 1 1

i i i I I 1 I i i i i

11 i i i 1 i i i i i

1947

1948

1946

« SALES ARE TOTAL FOR MONTH AW INVENTORIES ARE BOOK VALUE, END Of MONTH.

* K INOEXES COMPUTED FROM DATA ON RETAIL VALUE OF SALES
BOOK VALUE OF INVENTORIES,
ENO OF MONTH.

FOR MONTH AND RETAIL

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ANO BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.

Manufacturing 3
Period

Inventories *

Sales 4

COUNCIL O f ECONOMIC

Wholesale2

Retail2
Inventories3

Inventories *

Department stores
Sales 4

1
1
1
4

18, 773
19, 468
21, 500
23, 432
24, 211
24, 826
25, 392
25, 847
26, 435
26, 475
26, 842
27, 048
27, 053
27, 395
27, 625
28, 016
28, 485
28, 752
29, 065
29, 100

10, 712
11, 132
13, 055
14, 634
14, 454
14, 177
15, 548
15, 398
15, 049
15, 065
14, 362
15, 258
16, 597
18, 081
16, 556
17, 524
16, 551
16, 209
18, 070
17, 300

4,304
4,578
5,131
5,994
6,248
6,444
6, 611
6,778
6,737
6,864
6,726
6,886
6,997
6,943
7,349
7,577

7,618
7,754
8,054
8,049

9,691
10, 370
11, 402
13, 052
12, 683
12, 996
12, 627
12, 218
12, 369
12, 541
12, 403
12, 523
13, 263
13, 615
14, 333
13, 697
14, 096
13, 993
13, 426
13, 701

Inventories

Sales

1935-39=100 seasonally
adjusted *

Millions of dollars
1946: March
June
September.
December..
1947: January
February. _
March
April
May
June
July
August
September.
October
November.
December..
1948: January
February..
March fl
April«_....
May*

A0VI6ERS

6,522
7,043
8,216
9,141
9,337
9,582
9,715
9,703
9,502
9,440
9,574
9,838
10, 052
10, 202
10, 199
10, 352
10, 562
10, 902
11,413

7,783
8,101
8,811
9,205
9,097
9,285
9,399
9,610
9,681
9,743
9,730
9,621
10, 162
10, 258
10, 485
10, 653
10, 445
10, 381
10, 565
10, 832

177
210
226
274
268
274
273
264
252
242
231
227
231
251
273
283
288
303
312
308

255
277
271
276
265
266
272
277
291
289
286
283
292
277
302
303
284
283
284
304
308

1
Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for month and retail
Not adjusted for seasonal variation.
book
value of inventories, end of month.
Adjusted for seasonal variation*
8
Preliminary estimate.
Book value, end of month.
Total for month.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




17

EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
Exports rose in March, but were less than any month of 1947. The value of imports
reached a new record.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1.6
MONTHLY AVERAGES

1.6

1.4

1 .4

1.2

I .2

EXPORTS*
(.0

I .0

.8

.8

I
,2

i

-

J936-38

1943

i

1945

J

F

M

A

M

J

X
RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, AND CIVILIAN
* * RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS

J

A

S

O

N

D

J F M A M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AREAS

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY

[Millions of dollars]
Period

1936-38 monthly average.
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1046 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947:

1948:

1

•ts1
247

Imports 2

1,281

207
282
346
409
478

April
May
June
July
August
.
September.
October
NovemberDecember-.

1,362
1,503
1,320
1, 265
1,265
1, 183
1, 303
1, 195
1, 199

512
474
463
450
400
481
492
455
601

January._
February.
March. __

1,091
1,086
1,141

546
582
666

1,080

877
849

Excess of

Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas.
Recorded general merchandise imports.
Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy.

2




18

exports

40
798
531
440
803
850

1,029

857
815
865
702
811
740
598

545
504
475

O

N

O

Section E: PURCHASING POWER
NATIONAL INCOME
Revised estimates for corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment raised the estimates of national
income for 4th quarter of 1947 and 1st quarter of 1948 (annual rate) by $2 billion to new high levels.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
ANNUAL TOTALS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
SEASONALLY

ADJUSTED ANNUAL

RATES

TOTAL NATIONAL
INCOME
200

-

200

\

•CORPORATE PROFITS AND
INVENTORY VALUATION
ADJUSTMENT

PROPRIETORS'AND RENTAL
150

150

100

100

COMPENSATION OF

EMPLOYEES

50

50

1939

1944

1945

1

2

3

4

1

2

3

I*

4

2

3

4

1948

1947;

1946
X PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE.

SOURCE:




DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
Total
National
Income

Period

1939
1944
1945
1946
1947

... . .
_

72.5
182. 3
182.8
178.2
203. 1

Compensation of
employees

Proprietors'
and rental
income

47.8
121. 2
122.9
116. 8
128. 1

14.7
34. 4
37. 1
41.8
47. 8

Corporate profits and invenNet interest tory
valuation
adjustment
5.8
23.5
19.7
16.5
23. 6

4.2
3.2
3. 1
3.2
3.6

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: First quarter.
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter 1

,.
__-.__

194. 6
199.8
203.3
214.3

124. 7
125. 6
128.7
132. 9

46. 2
46.7
47. 0
51. 5

3.3
3.5
3.7
3.8

217,3

134.6

52.6

3. 8

20.4
23.9
23.9
26. 1
2

26,3

1
Preliminary estimate.
. .
* -2 Estimate at level indicated by Commerce's last tabulation of profits before inventory valuation adjustment;
which was for the fourth quarter of 1947.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.

19

CORPORATE PROFITS
Profits rose sharply in 4th quarter of 1947. Fragmentary information suggests continued high
level of profits in 1st quarter of 1948 but official estimates are not available.
BILUONS OF OOLLARS

BILLIONS OF OOLLARS
40

40
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

ANNUAL TOTALS

PROFITS BEFORE TAXES*

30

20

^ PROFITS
> AFTER
TAXES

10

10

UNDISTRIBUTED PROFITS

I
1929

1939

1943

I

NO ALLOWANCE

SOURCE :

FOR INVENTORY

VALUATION

3

1

4

I

2

3

ADJUSTMENT.

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]

Period

1929
1939
1943
1946
1947

Corporate
profits
before taxes

9.8
6.5
24.5
21. 1
29.2

Corporate
tax
liability

Corporate profits after taxes
Total
8.4
5.0
10.4
12. 5
17.8

1.4
1.5
14.2
8.6
11.5

Dividend
payments

Undistributed
profits

5.8
3.8
4.5
5.6
6.8

2.6
1.2
5.9
6.9
11.0

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter

28.9
27.8
28.2
32.2

O

17.4
16.9
17. 1
19.7

11.5
10.9
11. 1
12.6

0

6.3
6.5
6.8
7.3
7.5

11.1
10.4
10.3
12.4
(l)

1

Not available.
NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment.
add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce,

20



4

1948

1947

1946
*

2

Detail will not necessarily

PERSONAL INCOME
Most of the major components of personal income showed little change from February to March.
The increase in Gl payments was attributed to the acceleration of veterans'bonus payments in
New York State.
BILLIONS, OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

ANNUAL TOTALS

200

-

200
TOTAL

150

150
PROPRIETORS

AND RENTAL INCOME

100

100

SALARIES. WAGES

50

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M**A**M

J

J

A

S

0

N

D

TERMINAL LEAVE BOND CASHlNGS STARTED IN SEPTEMBER, 1947
^^PRELIMINARY
ESTIMATE
Council of Economic Advisers

SOURCE! Department of Commerce.




J

[Billions of dollars]

Total
personal
income

Period

1939
1944
1945
1946 '
1947

72. 6
164. 9
171. 6
177. 2
196.8

_

Salaries, wages, Proprietors'
and other
and rental
labor income
income
45. 6
116. 2
116. 7
110. 8
122.5

14. 7
34. 4
37. 1
41. 8
47.8

security
Dividends SocialGI
payand interest andments
9.2

10.7
11. 6
13. 3
14.9

3.0
3.6
6.2

11. 3
11.6

Annual rates, seasonallyr adjusted
1947* May
June
July

.-

August
September
October
November
December..

1948* January
February
Marchl
April

»

_
- .« _ _

190.5
194. 1
194. 9
193. 8
209. 9
203. 2
204. 2
210. 4

119. 1
121. 9
121. 7
123. 0
125.0
125. 6
128. 3
130. 0

46.5
47. 1
47. 4
45. 5
48. 1
50.4
49. 9
54. 0

14.4
14.6
14. 7
14.9
15.6
15. 4
15. 5
15.6

10.5
10.5
11. 1
10. 4
21.2
11.8
10. 5
10.8.

211.4
207.7
207. 7
209. 1

130. 1
129.0
126.4
125.8

54.5
51.6
51. 5
53,7

15.7
15.8
16.0
16.1

11. 1
11.3
12.0
11. 7

1

Preliminary estimate.
.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.

21

CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING
Consumer income increased more than expenditures in 1st quarter of 1948. Saving estimates
showed a higher rate than in any quarter of 1947 but considerably below 1946 levels.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

250

250
SEASONALLY AOJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

ANNUAL TOTALS

200

200

DISPOSABLE
*
PERSONAL INCOME

150

150

100

100

CONSUMPTION
EXPENDITURES

50

50

J
1939
*

1940

1941

2

1942

1948

PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES

# *

I
3

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL

OF ECONOMIC

[Billions of dollars]

Period

1939_._
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944.
1945
1946.
1947

"...

Disposable
personal
income l

70.2
75.7
92.0
116. 2
131.6
146.0
150.7
158.4
175.3

Less: Personal
consumption
expenditures

Equals: Personal saving

%

67.5
72. 1
82.3
90.8
101.6
110. 4
121.7
143.7
164.4

2.7
3.7
9.8
25.4
30.0
35.6
29.0
14.8
10.9

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: First quarter. _
Second quarter
Third quarterFourth quarter

168.8
170. 1
177.9
183.7

156.9
162.3
165.8
172.5

11.9
7.8
12. 1
11.2

1948: First quarter 2_

186. 1

173.2

12.9

1

Income less taxes.
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Commerce.

2

22



ADVISERS

PER CAPITA INCOME*
Although per capita income increased from 4th quarter of 1947 to 1st quarter of 1948, retail prices
increased more, resulting in a drop in the real purchasing power of consumers.
DOLLARS

DOLLARS

1,600

1,600
SEASONALLY

ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS**
\

1,200

1,200

800

800

CURRENT DOLLARS

400




400

I
1939

1940

1941

1942

1943

1944

I 1

I

1945

1946

* PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES.
# " * CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE CONSUMERS* PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE 1ST HALF OP 1947 * 100.

I
I
2 3
1947

Period

.

_ .
_
-

- -.
---

3

1948
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC

Per capita disposable
personal
income1

_

II

* * # PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES.

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947

I
I*** 2

Current dollars

First half of
1947 dollars 2

$536
574
691
863
964
1,057
1,080
1, 122
1, 216

$838
890

1,021
1, 151
1,211
1,308
1,306
1,251
1,187

Annual rates, seasonally
adji isted

ADVISERS

Consumers'
price index,
first half of
1947=100

64.0
64. 5
67. 7
75.0
79. 5
80.8
82.6
89. 6
102.4
Not adjusted
for seasonal
variation

1947: First quarter
Second quarter. _
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

1, 108
1, 184
1,232
1, 266

1, 188
1,177
1,190
1,191

99.3
100.6
103.5
106. 3

1948: First quarter *,

1,278

1,184

107. 9

1
2
8

Income lessrtaxes.
Current dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base first half of 1947=100.
Preliminary estimate.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.

23

AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS
Hourly earnings in manufacturing were unchanged in April from the levels of the previous
three months, the longest period without an increase since early 1946. Slight increases
were registered in most nonmanufacturing industries in March.
DOLLARS PER HOUR

DOLLARS PER HOUR

RETAIL TRADE

MANUFACTURING
1.50

1.50
- 1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS*
1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS*
__

1.00
'CURRENT DOLLARS

y

— _ - * —

\

.50

1

XURRENT DOLLARS

.50

0 I I I I I I I I I i i I

I i i i i i I I 1I

I I I 1

1947

1946

0

1 1 1 1 1

1 11

i i \

1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 11

1 , ,, ,,

1 1 1 1

1948

PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION

BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
2.00

2.00
1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS*

1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS*

—

A.

1.50

1.50
•

CURRENT DOLLARS

CUF RENT DOLLARS

1.00

1.00

.5 0

.50

, , I

o UL

1946

..... 1

I , ,,
1947

1948

i i i i i

. i i i i 1 i i i

1946

* CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE Isf HALF OF

..

i i i . i

1947

1

1948

1947*100.

SOURCE'- DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Selected industries]
Manufacturing

Bituminous coal mining

Retail trade

Private building construction i

Period
Current
dollars
1939 monthly
1941 monthly
1944 monthly
1945 monthly
1946 monthly
1947 monthly

average.
average.
average.
average.
average
average.

1947: May
June
July...
August
September
October.
November
December

,.

1948: January
February
March 8
April *-.____-.

First half
of 1947
dollars 2

Current
dollars




Current
dollars

First half
of 1947
dollars a

Current
dollars

First half
of 1947
dollars *

$0. 633
. 729
1.019
1.023
1.084
1.221

$0. 989
1.077
1. 261
1.238
1.210
1. 192

$0. 536
. 568
.724
.773
.878
.991

$0. 838
.839
.896
.936
. 980
.968

$0. 886
.993
. 1. 186
1.240
1.401
1.644

$1. 384
1.467
1. 468
1. 501
1.564
1.605

$0. 932
1.010
1. 319
1.379
1.478
1.676

$1. 456
1.492
1. 632
1.669
1.650
1.637

1.207
1. 226
1.230
1.236
1.249
1.258
1.268
1.278

1. 202
1.213
1. 207
1. 198
1. 185
1. 194
1. 195
1. 189

.985
.996
1.003
1.003
1.012
1.013
1.025
1.016

.981
.985
.984
.972
.960
.961
.966
.945

1.470
1.489
1.740
1.787
1.819
1.798
1.851
1.826

1.464
1.473
.708
.732
1.726
1. 706
1.745
1.699

1.656
1.661
1.669
1.689
1.718
1.738
1.765
1.774

1.649
1.643
1.638
1.637
1.630
1.649
1.664
1.650

1.285
1.290
1.291
1. 290

1. 183
1. 197
1.202
1. 185

1.044
1.050
1.045

.961
.974
.973

1.847
1.826
U. 847

1.701
1.694
1. 720

1.781
1.809
1.810

1.640
1.678
1.685

1
Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
_8a Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base, first half of 1947=
Preliminary estimate.
4
Based on pay period prior to coal stoppage.
Source: Department of Labor,

24

First half
of 1947
dollars a

aoo.

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS
March weekly earnings in retail trade and building construction and April earnings (preliminary)
in manufacturing showed slight decreases, reflecting a moderately shorter workweek.
DOLLARS PER WEEK

DOLLARS PER WEEK

MANUFACTURING

RETAIL TRADE
60
CURRENT DOLLARS

1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS*
1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS

20

i

i

t t 1 i

1946

t

i i i i I i i i i i
1946

t t t

1948

1947
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING

i i i t t I i i t >i
1947

t i i >i I i i i I i
1948

PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION

100

100

80

CURRENT DOLLARS

1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS
1st HALF OF 1947 DOLLARS*
40

40

20

20

1 1J I i 1 l I I I I

I I I I I I I l I 1I

I I I I I I I I I l l

1 I t I 1I I I i I I

1946

1947

1948

1946

* EARNINGS DATA DISTORTED DURING THESE MONTHS BECAUSE OF WO/tH STOPPAGES Off VACATIONS.
SOURCE'-

DEPARTMENT

#*

CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED

I M,

MM

1 II

1947
BY CONSUMER'S

II

M

M

1948

PRICE INDEX ON BASE 1ST HALF OF 194? » 100

OF LABOR.

COUNCIL or ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Selected industries]
Manufacturing
Period
Current
dollars
1939
1941
1944
1945
1946
1947

monthly average
monthly average
monthly average _monthly average
monthly average monthly average

1947: May
June
July
.
August
September
October
November - _ .
December..
1948 • January
February
March 8
Anril3

-

«•..-..-.---.-.
....
_ --«

«.--

-

----

First half
of 1947
dollars2

Current
dollars .

First half
of 1947
dollars2

Current
dollars

First half
of 1947
dollars2

Private building
construction l
Current
dollars

First half
of 1947
dollars 3

$23. 86
29.58
46.08
44.39
43. 74
49.25

$37. 28
43. 69
57.03
53. 74
48. 82
48. 10

$21. 17
21.94
26.58
28.31
32.55
36.70

$33.08
32.40
32.90
34.27
36.33
35.84

$23. 88
30.86
51.27
52.25
58. 03
66.82

$37. 31
45.58
63.45
63.26
64.77
65.25

$30. 39
35.14
52. 18
53.73
56. 24
63.28

$47.48
51.91
64.58
65.05
62.77
61.80

48.44
49. 33
48. 98
49. 17
50.47
51. 05
51.29
52.69

48. 25
48.79
48.07
47.65
47.88
48.43
48.34
49.01

36.50
37.82
37.99
38. 14
37.06
36.74
37.14
37.51

36. 35
37. 41
37. 28
36. 96
35. 16
34. 86
35.00
34. 89

65. 51
67. 09
54.87
70.23
71.19
71. 91
71.77
75.22

65.25
66. 36
53.85
68.05
67.54
68.23
67.64
69. 97

62.38
62.68
63.30
66.97
65.22
66.14
64.55
67. 31

62.13

52. 07
51. 79
52.07
51.56

47. 95
48.04
48.48
47. 35

37. 62
38.33
38.02

34. 64
35. 56
35.40

69.78
65.44
-69. 47

66.28
66. 31
66. 14

1
Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
1 Current dollars divided by consumers? price-index* on the base first half of 1947= aoo.
•4 Preliminary estimate.
Based on pay period prior to coal stoppage.
Source: Department of Labor.




Bituminous coal-mining

Retail trade

4

75.78
70.54
74. 61

4

62.60
62.12
64.89
61.88
62. 75
60.84
62. 61
61.03
61.51
61.58

FARM INCOME
The purchasing power of farm income in April continued considerably below last year's level.
Dollar income was slightly above a year ago while prices paid were substantially higher.
BILLIONS OF OOLLARS

BILLIONS OF OOLLARS

4

1939 40

M A M J J A

41

M J J A S

1948

1947

* CASH RECEIPTS FROM MARKETING AND GOVERNMENT PAYMENTS.
* * FARM INCOME IN CURRENT OOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, AND TAXES ON THE BASE

1939*100.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

1939 monthly
1940 monthly
1941 monthly
1942 monthly
1943 monthly
1944 monthly
1945 monthly
1946 monthly
1947 monthly

average
average
average
average
average
average
average
average
average

1947: June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1948: January
February
March4
April
1
2
8
4

-

__.

Farm income
(millions of
current
dollars) *
723
761
981
1, 340
1,678
1,753
1,857
2, 110
2,543

2,211
2,662
2,517
3,060
3,773
3, 109
2, 927
2,581
1,866
2,001
2, 096

Prices paid,
interest,
and taxes,
1939 = 100*

Farm income,
(millions of
1939 dollars)1

100.0
100. 8
106.5
121.0
130.6
136.3
138.7
155.6
186.3
185.5
185.5
188.7
191.9
192.7
194.4
197. 6
202. 4
200. 0
199.2
200. 8

Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments.
Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1939=100.
Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1939= aoo.
Preliminary.
Source: Department of Agriculture.

26



723
755
921
1, 107
1,285
1,286
1,339
1, 356
1,365
1, 192
1,435
1,334
1,595
1, 958
1,599
1,481
1, 276
933
1,005
1,044




AVERAGE FAMILY INCOME
All groups received more income in 1946 than before the war.
Greatest relative increases were in the lower and middle groups.
FAMILIES*

MONEY INCOME BEFORE TAXES, 1946 DOLLARS
4,000
.
6,000

2,000

GROUPED
FROM LOWEST
TO HIGHEST
INCOME

8,000

10,000

LOWEST
FIFTH

SECOND
FIFTH

THIRD
FIFTH

FOURTH
FIFTH

HIGHEST
FIFTH

"* INCLUDES SINGLE INDIVIDUALS.
COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE; THE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JANUARY 1948.

Money income before taxes,
1946 dollars

Percent increase

Families grouped from lowest
to
highest income l
1935-36
Lowest
fifth
Second
fifth
Third
fifth
Fourth
fifth
Highest fifth .•_

_-._--.----_.-.---.----.-.---.__
^
.
*
.___
.-.

Average for all families *-.

'« - .

1941

1946

1935-36
to 1946

1941 to 1946

$446
969
1, 515
2, 284
5,928

$498
1, 275
2, 243
3, 225
7,418

$835
2,023
3,050
4, 201
8,921

87
109
101
84
50

68
59
36
30
20

2, 229

2,932

3,806

71

30

1

Includes single individuals.;
i _
Source: The Economic Report of the President, January 1948, p. 18.

27

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Revised estimates of consumption expenditures for 1st quarter of 1948 iaclicate that the increase in
expenditures for services more than offset the decrease in expenditures for durable goods.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

200

200
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

ANNUAL TOTALS

TOTAL EXPENDITURES
\
(50

150

too

100

NONDURABLE GOODS

50

1
1939

1944

1945

2

-I

I
3

50

.1,

2

4

3

I

I

4

2

34

1948

1947

1946
* PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE.
S O U R C E . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
Personal consumption expenditures
Period
Nondurable
goods

Total

19391944.
1945.
1946.
1947-

67.5
110.4
121.7
143.7
164.4

35.3
67.2
75.3
87. 1
99.3

Durable
goods

6.7
6.8
8.0
14.9
19.8

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: First quarter— _
Second quarterThird quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1948: First quarter 3
1

Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding*
Source: Department of Commerce,

28




Services
25.5
36.5
38.4
41.7
45.3

CONSUMER CREDIT
A rise in instalment credit in April pushed total consumer credit to a new peak.

4

-

2

-

1929

1939 1941
END OF YEAR

J

1943

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

O

J

F

1946

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

1947
END OF MONTH

.

J

J

A

S

O

.

1948

* SINGLE PAYMENT LOANS AND SERVICE CREDIT
SOURCE: Boord of Govei




[Billions of dollars]

End of period

1929
1939.

-

1948: January _ _
February
March
April

7. 6

3.2

9. 9
5. 3
6. 6
10.2
13. 4

1941_.-i

-_ _

-.
.__ -_. .

- _

Instalment
creditl

8.0

1943
1945-.
1946
1947
1947: May
June « _
July
August
September
October
November
December

Total
consumer
credit
outstanding

_

_ _ _- _ -_

-_
__

4. 4
5. 9
2.0

Charge
accounts

1.7
1.5
1.8

1. 5

2.0

2. 4
4. 0

3. 1

10.9
11. 2
11. 3
11. 4
11. 7
12. 1
12. 6
13. 4

4.7
4. 9

2.8
2.9

5.2
5.3
5. 5
5. 7

2.8
2.9

13. 0
12.9
13.4
13.6

6.2

3.6

Other
consumer
credit2
2.7
2.0
2.2
1.9
2.3
3.1
3.6

5.0

2.8

6.2

3.0
3.3
3.6

3.4
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.6

6.2
6.2
6.5
6.7

3.2
3.1
3.3
3.3

3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6

1
Includes automobile and other sale credit and repair and modernization loans insured by Federal Hous*
ing Administration.
2
Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

N

O

Section F:
MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS
Preliminary estimates of commercial bank loans at the end of April showed no significant
change from the March figure. Investments in U.S. securities increased $ 8 0 0 million.
8ILLI0NS OF OOLLAR$

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

125

125
T O T A L (All commercial banks)

100

100

SECURITIES

75

75

50

50

25

25

I

1929

J

1939 1945

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

P

1947

ENO OF YEAR

M

J

J

I

1 I

A

S

O

1 I
'

N

1948
1948

I
D

1 1 I
J

F

M

A

1• I
M

J

I
J

1 I
A

S

1 1
O

N

D

1949

END OF MONTH
PR EL IMINA RY ES TIMA TE

SOURCE: Boord of Governors

Council of Economic Advisers

[Billions of dollars]
Loans and investments, all commercial banks
Investments
End of period

Total

Bank loans
Total

U. S. Government
securities

Other
securities

1929.
19391945.
1946.
1947-

49. 5
40.7
124 0
114. 0
116.4

36.0
17.2
26. 1
31. 1
38.1

13.5
23.4
97.9
82.9
78.3

4.8
16.3
90.6
74.8
69.3

8.7
7. 1
7.3
8. 1
9.0

1947: May
June
July
August
SeptemberOctober
NovemberDecember- .

112.9
112.8
113.4
114.0
115.2
116.3
116.6
116.3

33. 1
33.7
34.0
34.9
35.5
36.8
37.6
38.1

79.8
79.1
79.4
79. 1
79.7
79.5
79.0
78.2

71.5
70.5
70.7
70.3
70.8
70.5
70.1
69.2

8.3
8.5
8.7
8.8
8.9
9.0
8.9
9.0

1948: January-FebruaryMarch
April1--.

116.6
115.5
113.6
114. 3

38.2
38.7
38.9
38. 8>

78.4
76.9
74.7
75.5

69.4
67.9
65.5
66.3

9.0
9.0
9.3
9.2

1

30



Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

MONEY SUPPLY
Private demand deposits increased slightly in April after falling steadily since December.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

150

150

.TOTAL
125

-

125

-100

100

75

75

50

50

m
25

25

w
m
1929

1939

1941

1943

1 1 i
1946

J F M A M J

J

A S O N O J

i

i

J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

1946

1945

END OF YEAR

F M A M J

1947

1948
^PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE

END OF MONTH
SOURCE: Board of Governors




[Billions of dollars]
Total money
supply

End of period
1929
1939
.
1941
__.
_
1943
1945
1946
1947
1947* Mav
June
July
August
September
October
November December
,
1948* January
February
March
April 3

.

J

_-.
--_
_
_
..

;

-

- „-

26. 5
37.0
50.5
90. 1
126.9
113. 1
115. 1
109. 8
109. 8
110. 6
111. 3
112. 5
113.5
114.4
115. 1
113. 7
112. 2
109.6
110.9

Currency
outside
banks
3.6
6.4
9.6

18. 8
26.5
26.7
26. 5
26. 1
26.3
26.0
26.2
26.4
26.3
26.6
26.5
25.8
25.7
25.6
25.5

Adjusted
demand
deposits *
22.8
29.8
39.0
60. 8
75.9
83.3
87. 2
81. 5
82. 1
83. 2
83. 4
84.2
85.4
85.9
87.2
86.6
84.6
81.6
83.0

U. S. Government
deposits 2
0.2
.8
1.9

10.4
24.6
3. 1
1. 4
2. 2
1.4
1.4
1.7
1.9
1.8
1.9
1.4
1.4
1.8
2.4
2.4

1
Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection.
2
Beginning December 1938, includes U. S. Treasurer's time deposits, open account.
3
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

31

FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND
PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC
The excess of Federal cash receipts over cash payments in the first quarter 1948 was $ 6.4 billion as compared with
$ 5.2 billion in the first quarter 1947.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF OOLLARS
20

20
QUARTERLY TOTALS, NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL

15

15

10

10
CASH PAYMENTS

I

2

3
1946

2

2

3

3
1948

1947

* PR£UNINA*Y ESTIMATE

SOURCE: TREASURY DEPARTMENT




COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars]
Calendar year and quarter

1946: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1947: First quarter.
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter'1

Federal cash
receipts from
the public

Federal cash
payments to
the public

14,153
11, 098
10, 377
9,870
14, 962
11, 430
10, 470
10,011
15, 732

13, 648
13, 599
9,106
8,909
9,772
12, 198
10, 503
8,666
9,322

Excess of receipts (4-) or
payments (—)
+ 505
-2,501
+ 1,271
+ 961
+ 5, 190
-768
-33
+ 1,345
+ 6,410

1

Preliminary estimate.
Source: Treasury Department.

U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE ' * • * •