Full text of Economic Indicators : July 1989
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101st Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators JULY 1989 (Includes data available as of July 31, 1989) Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1989 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Chairman PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California) DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin) JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York) FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California) STEPHEN J. SOLARZ (New York) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine) HAMILTON FISH, JR. (New York) FREDERICK S. UPTON (Michigan) SENATE LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico) ALBERT GORE, JR. (Tennessee) RICHARD H. BRYAN (Nevada) WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) STEVE SYMMS (Idaho) PETE WILSON (California) CONNIE MACK (Florida) JOSEPH J. MINARIK, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS MICHAEL J. BOSKIN, Chairman JOHN B. TAYLOR, Member RICHARD L. SCHMALENSEE, Member-Designate [PUBLIC LAW 120—SlST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.25 a single copy ($2.81 foreign), or by subscription at $24.00 per year ($30.00 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT In the second quarter of 1989, according to advance estimates, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 6.6 percent (annual rate) or $81.8 billion. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 1.7 percent and the implicit price deflator rose 4.9 percent. (Series revised.) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 5,600 5,600 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 5,200 5,200 - •^" ^"1 4,800 4,800 fS~ — - GNP IN CURRENT CXJLLARb 4,400 4,400 ^ ^ - — >\ 4,000 4,000 v - 3,600 ,„—•-'' — 3,600 \ GNP IN 1982 DO .LARS ^ *•** - /''' f^'"* 3,200 — 3,200 ~-—^*~<~— — * — ^~ 2,800 2,800 2,400 1 1 1981 1 \ 1 1 1 1 1 1983 1982 \ 1 1 1984 \ 1 1 1 1 1 1986 1985 1 1 \ \ \ 1 1988 1987 1 1 1 2,400 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Government purchases of goods and services Exports and imports of goods and services Persona! consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment 2,732.0 3,052.6 3,166.0 3,405.7 3,772.2 4,014.9 4,231.6 4,524.3 4,880.6 1,732.6 1,915.1 2,050.7 2,234.5 2,430.5 2,629.0 2,797.4 3,010.8 3,235.1 437.0 515.5 447.3 502.3 664.8 643.1 659.4 699.9 750.3 32.1 33.9 26.3 -6.1 -58.9 -78.0 97 4 -112.6 73 7 351.0 382.8 361.9 352.5 383.5 370.9 396.5 448.6 547.7 318.9 348.9 335.6 358.7 442.4 448.9 493.8 561.2 621.3 530.3 588.1 641.7 675.0 735.9 820.8 872.2 926.1 968.9 208.1 242.2 272.7 283.5 310.5 355.2 366.5 381.6 381.3 142.7 167.5 193.8 214.4 234.3 259.1 277.8 294.8 298.0 65.4 74.8 78.9 69.1 76.2 96.0 88.7 86.8 83.3 IV IV IV IV IV ' 3,212.5 3,545.8 3,851.8 4,107.9 4,297.3 2,117.0 2,315.8 2,493.4 2,700.4 2,868.5 409.6 579.8 661.8 654.1 648.8 14.1 25 8 -67.9 103 2 -108.9 335.9 364.7 385.7 369.2 402.4 321.9 390.5 453.6 472.4 511.3 671.8 676.1 764.5 856.7 888.9 293.2 276.1 326.0 376.6 368.8 205.4 221.5 244.1 268.6 280.7 1987- III ' IV ' 4,566.6 4,665.8 3,055.9 3,083.3 692.8 749.7 1153 — 114.6 458.0 482.6 573.4 597.2 933.2 947.5 384.5 388.1 1988- I T II * IIIr IV ' 4,739.8 4,838.5 4,926.9 5,017.3 3,148.1 3,204.9 3,263.4 3,324.0 728.8 748.4 771.1 752.8 82 8 — 74.9 -66.2 708 521.6 532.5 558.8 579.7 604.3 607.5 623.0 650.5 945.7 960.1 958.6 1,011.4 1989- I ' II ' 5,113.1 5,194.9 3,381.4 3,437.9 769.6 777.9 -54.0 524 605.6 625.2 6S9.6 677.5 1,016.0 1,031.4 Gross national product Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 r 1987 '. 1988 ' 1982: 19831984: 19851986- . . Net exports 1 GNP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Note.—Series revised beginning 1986. See Surrey of Current Business, July 1989. Final sales Gross domestic purchases 1 322.2 345.9 369.0 391.5 425.3 465.6 505.7 544.5 587.6 2,740.3 3,028.6 3,190.5 3,412.8 3,704.5 4,003.6 4,224.8 4,495.0 4,850.0 2,699.8 3,018.7 3,139.7 3,411.8 3,831.1 4,092.8 4,329.0 4,636.8 4,954.3 87.7 54.6 81.9 108.0 88.1 378.7 400.0 438.5 480.1 520.1 3,272.4 3,514.8 3,806.8 4,100.7 4,309.4 3,198.5 3,571.6 3,919.7 4,211.2 4,406.2 300.2 296.8 84.3 91.3 548.7 559.4 4,557.1 4,602.5 4,681.9 4,780.4 374.1 377.1 367.5 406.4 297.4 298.0 296.1 300.5 76.7 79.1 71.4 105.9 571.6 583.0 591.0 604.9 4,709.8 4,809.2 4,882.3 4,998.7 4,822.5 4,913.4 4,993.] 5,088.1 399.0 403.9 298.7 302.4 100.4 101.5 617.0 627.5 5,085.4 5,162.4 5,167.1 5,247.2 Federal Exports Imports Total Total National defense Nondefense State and local Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS [Billions of 1982 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Exports and imports of goods and services Gross private domestic investment Government purchases of goods and services Personal consumption expenditures Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed 3,187.1 3,248.8 3,166.0 3,279.1 3,501.4 3,618.7 3,717.9 3,853.7 4,024.4 2,000.4 2,024.2 2,050.7 2,146.0 2,249.3 2,354.8 2,446.4 2,513.7 2,598.4 379.2 395.2 366.7 361.2 425.2 453.5 438.4 455.5 493.8 137.0 126.5 105.1 149.3 170.9 174.4 195.7 194.8 194.1 57.0 -6.9 49.4 23.9 26.3 -24.5 64 -19.9 840 62.3 9.1 - 104.3 129 7 5.6 23.7 -115.7 74.9 27.9 388.9 392.7 361.9 348.1 371.8 367.2 397.1 450.9 530.1 332.0 343.4 335.6 368.1 455.8 471.4 526.9 566.6 605.0 620.5 629.7 641.7 649.0 677.7 731.2 761.6 781.8 785.1 IV IV IV IV IV '. 3,159.3 3,365.1 3,535.2 3,662.4 3,733.6 2,078.7 2,191.9 2,281.1 2,386.9 2,477.8 352.3 390.4 444.4 460.9 435.7 115.8 159.9 169.6 179.4 200.3 11.7 -59.3 462 27.0 41.1 -94.8 125 3 7.7 -135.4 -20.8 336.0 355.5 376.6 367.4 406.5 324.3 401.6 411.4 492.6 541.9 1987: in ' IV ' 3,872.8 3,935.6 2,536.5 2,532.3 472.8 472.7 192.1 191.9 461.3 484.1 1988: I ' II ' 3,974.8 4,010.7 4,042.7 4,069.4 2,570.8 2,586.8 2,608.1 2,627.7 483.6 497.8 501.0 492.7 189.1 194.2 195.1 198.1 6.8 -118.9 56.6 -109.8 34.3 -78.2 72 6 21.5 37.5 -74.9 18.3 73 8 4,106.8 4,123.9 2,641.0 2,648.2 501.0 510.2 195.6 188.6 24.5 22.0 55 0 -52.6 Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 '. 1987 ' 1988 '. 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: m* IV ' 1989- I r n* 1 Gross national product Change in business inventories Federal Net exports Exports State and local Final sales Gross domestic purchases 1 National defense Nondefense 246.9 259.6 272.7 275.1 290.8 326.0 334.1 339.6 328.9 171.2 180.3 193.8 206.9 218.5 237.2 252.1 265.2 261.5 75.7 79.3 78.9 68.2 72.3 88.8 82.0 74.4 67.4 373.6 370.1 369.0 373.9 387.0 405.2 427.5 442.1 456.2 3,194.0 3,225.0 3,190.5 3,285.5 3,439.1 3,609.6 3,712.4 3,830.0 3,996.5 3,130.1 3,199.4 3,139.7 3,299.1 3,585.4 3,723.0 3,847.6 3,969.4 4,099.3 660.1 642.2 693.2 752.7 776.0 289.5 266.0 300.5 340.6 342.4 201.4 211.6 225.3 241.4 255.8 88.2 54.4 15.2 99.2 86.6 370,6 376.2 392.1 412.1 433.6 3,218.6 3,338.1 3,493.5 3,654.7 3,754.4 3,147.6 3,411.3 3,630.0 3,787.6 3,869.0 580.2 593.9 783.5 792.1 340.7 344.9 270.6 266.7 70.1 78.2 442.8 447.2 3,866.0 3,879.0 3,991.7 4,045.5 517.4 519.7 531.9 551.4 595.6 592.3 606.9 625.2 775.1 783.0 775.9 806.4 323.8 327.9 319.8 343.9 263.0 262.5 258.8 261.6 60.8 65.4 61.0 82.3 451.3 455.1 456.1 462.5 3,940.5 3,989.2 4,005.2 4,051.0 4,052.9 4,083.3 4,117.6 4,143.2 569.7 585.1 624.6 637.7 799.7 807.6 335.5 341.3 254.4 256.1 81.1 85.1 464.2 466.3 4,082.3 4,101.9 4,161.8 4,176.5 Imports Total Total Note.—Series revised beginning 1986. See Survey of Current Business, July 1989. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GNP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1982 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted} Personal consumption expenditures Period Gross national product 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 r 1987 ' 1988 ' Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Gross private domestic investment Services Nonresidential fixed Exports and imports of goods and services Government purchases of goods and services Federal Residential fixed Exports Imports Total National defense Nondefense State and local 85.7 94.0 100.0 103.9 107.7 110.9 113.8 117.4 121.3 86.6 94.6 100.0 104.1 108.1 111.6 114.3 119.8 124.5 89.2 95.7 100.0 102.1 103.8 104.8 105.6 108.1 110.1 89.4 96.9 100.0 102.1 105.0 107.5 107.3 112.1 116.3 83.9 92.6 100.0 106.2 111.6 116.8 122.4 129.0 134.9 85.1 93.4 100.0 98.8 97.9 97.7 99.3 97.5 98.7 89.4 96.6 100.0 102.2 106.0 108.3 111.1 116.2 119.7 90.2 97.5 100.0 101.3 103.2 101.0 99.8 99.5 103.3 96.0 101.6 100.0 97.4 97.1 95.2 93.7 99.0 102.7 84.3 93.3 100.0 103.1 106.8 109.0 109.7 112.4 115.9 83.4 92.9 100.0 103.6 107.2 109.2 110.2 111.1 114.0 86.4 94.3 100.0 101.4 105.5 108.2 108.1 116.7 123.6 86.2 93.4 100.0 104.7 109.9 114.9 118.3 123.2 128.8 IV IV IV IV IV ' 101.7 105.4 109.0 112.2 115.1 101.8 105.7 109.3 113.1 115.8 100.7 103.1 104.1 104.7 106.2 101.0 103.1 105.8 108.7 107.8 102.7 108.3 113.5 119.0 124.9 100.7 98.3 97.9 97.9 100.0 99.1 103.1 107.2 109.0 112.4 100.0 102.6 102.4 100.5 99.0 99.3 97.2 96.2 95.9 94.4 101.3 103.8 108.5 110.6 107.7 102.0 104.7 108.3 111.3 109.7 99.5 100.3 108.9 108.8 101.7 102.2 106.3 111.7 116.5 120.0 1987: III r. IV r 117.9 118.6 120.5 121.8 108.8 109.0 112.8 113.7 129.8 131.5 96.7 97.0 117.8 118.7 99.3 99.7 98.8 100.6 112.8 112.5 110.9 111.3 120.3 116.8 123.9 125.1 1988: I ' II " III ' IV '.. 119.2 120.6 121.9 123.3 122.5 123.9 125.1 126.5 109.3 109.6 110.2 111.2 114.0 115.9 117.1 118.2 132.7 134.2 135.6 137.3 97.7 97.8 98.4 100.6 119.5 119.5 119.6 120.4 100.8 102.5 104.7 105.1 101.5 102.6 102.7 104.0 115.5 115.0 114.9 118.2 113.1 113.5 114.4 114.9 126.2 121.0 117.1 128.7 126.7 128.1 129.6 130.8 1989: I ' 124.5 126.0 128.0 129.8 111.2 111.0 120.0 123.3 139.0 140.4 100.4 100.3 122.1 124.1 106.3 106.9 105.6 106.2 118.9 118.4 117.4 118.1 123.8 119.2 132.9 134.5 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: n* Note. — Series revised beginning 1986. See Survey of Current Business, July 1989. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Personal consumption expenditures Gross national product Period Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars -0.2 1.9 -2.5 3.6 6.8 3.4 2.7 3.7 4.4 .6 7.3 1.7 3.0 2.3 5.3 6.6 4.0 3.7 3.2 2.7 3.7 1.7 8.9 11.7 3.7 7.6 10.8 6.4 5.4 6.9 7.9 4.2 12.4 4.7 6.2 4.2 8.4 9.0 6.5 8.6 7.5 7.5 7.9 6.6 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 r 1987 T. 1988 r .. 1982: IV 1983- IV 1984: IV 1985- IV 1986- IV ' 1987- III r IV r. 1988- I *r n .r m IT '. 1989- I ' Ii" Implicit price deflator 9.0 9.7 6.4 3.9 3.7 3.0 2.6 3.2 3.3 3.6 4.7 3.0 3.3 1.8 2.8 2.4 2.0 4.8 4.4 4.7 4.0 4.9 Chain price index 9.0 9.4 6.3 4.1 3.9 3.3 2.5 3.4 3.7 4.1 3.9 3.1 3.2 2.7 3.7 3.3 3.3 4.3 4.4 4.1 4.6 5.0 NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. Fixedweighted price index (1982 weights) 9.3 9.3 6.2 4.1 4.0 3.4 2.7 3.6 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.2 3.3 3.1 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.8 5.2 4.3 4.8 5.2 Implicit price deflator Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars 10.6 10.5 7.1 9.0 8.8 8.2 6.4 7.6 7.4 10.3 9.7 7.2 6.0 6.2 9.2 3.6 8.7 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.1 6.9 Chain price index Fixedweighted price index (1882 weights) -0.2 1.2 1.3 4.6 4.8 4.7 3.9 2.8 3.4 10.7 9.2 5.7 4.1 3.8 3.2 2.4 4.8 3.9 10.9 9.2 5.7 4.2 3.9 3.5 2.7 4.7 4.1 10.5 9.0 5.6 4.2 4.0 3.5 2.7 4.7 4.3 5.3 5.5 4.3 1.9 2.2 4.4 4.3 3.0 4.0 3.9 4.8 4.1 3.1 4.2 3.9 4.8 4.1 3.2 4.3 3.9 4.7 — .7 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.5 6.2 2.5 3.3 3.0 2.3 4.7 3.9 4.6 4.8 5.7 2.6 5.0 4.3 4.8 2.6 5.1 4.6 4.9 4.7 5.9 4.8 6.4 2.0 1.1 Series revised beginning 1986. See Survey of Current Business, July 1989. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS-OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollars) l Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars) Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 '. 1987 '. 1988 ' 1982: IV... 1983- IV 1984: IV 1985: IV.. 1986- IV * 1987: III ' IV r 1988: I r... II ' 111' IV ' 1989- I 1 r Total cost and profit 2 Capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment 1982 dollars 1,540.8 1,738.4 1,782.2 1,914.2 2,146.7 2,267.1 2,367.1 2,520.7 2,731.3 1,779.4 2,012.5 2,201.8 c 2 309 4 2,408.7 2,556.2 2,598.4 2,648.1 2,705.9 2,754.9 2,816.4 1,807.9 1,837.2 1,782.2 1,866.0 2,036.5 2,117.4 2,173.9 2,282.6 2,419.5 1,760.2 1,940.5 2,069.5 2,137.7 2,198.5 2,309.2 2,343.3 2,381.8 2,408.9 2,434.1 2,453.2 0.852 .946 1.000 1.026 1.054 1.071 1.089 1.104 1.129 1.011 1.037 1.064 1.080 1.096 1.107 1.109 1.112 1.123 1.132 1.148 0.095 .109 .125 .123 .118 .119 .123 .123 .123 .131 .120 .118 .120 .124 .123 .122 .122 .122 .122 .124 0.077 .090 .094 .098 .100 .103 .106 .106 .107 .096 .098 .102 .104 .106 .107 .106 .106 .107 .108 .108 2,842.7 2,459.1 1.156 .125 .110 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1982 dol- This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. 3 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. 4 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Indirect business taxes 3 Current dollars lars. 2 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Compensation of employees Net interest 0.581 .632 .676 .679 .687 .704 .721 .730 .744 .685 .680 .694 .713 .727 .726 .734 .732 .740 .746 .756 0.031 .037 .043 .037 .039 .038 .041 .047 .052 .042 .037 .042 .037 .042 .048 .050 .050 .051 .053 .055 0.068 .078 .063 .089 .109 .106 .098 .098 .103 .057 .103 .107 .106 .096 .768 .057 .096 Total .103 .098 .102 .103 .102 .105 Output per hour of all employees (1982 dollars) * Compensation per hour of all employees (dollars) * 17.096 17.194 17.318 17.865 18.287 18.584 18.927 19.216 19.471 .041 .044 .044 .045 0.031 .044 .037 .057 .073 .073 .064 .058 .059 .034 .066 .075 .072 .058 .060 .057 .060 .059 .058 .061 17.383 18.029 18.359 18.639 19.043 19.362 19.357 19.560 19.481 19.443 19.454 9.939 10.861 11.699 12.122 12.569 13.075 13.605 14.062 14.640 11.814 12.261 12.746 13.288 13.815 14.110 14.291 14.397 14.546 14.743 14.908 .045 .051 19.392 15.097 Profits tax liability 0.037 .035 .026 .032 .036 .033 .035 .041 .044 .023 .036 .032 .033 .038 .044 .041 Profits after tax 4 Note.—Series revised beginning 1986, except as noted. See Survey of Current Business, July 1989. * Data do not reflect revisions beginning 1986 of GNP and related items published July 21, 1989. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor {Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period National income Compensation of employees1 Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Farm Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Noniarm Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total Total Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment Capital consumption adjustment Net interest 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 ' 1987 ' 1988 ' 1982- IV 1983- IV 1984- TV 1985- IV 1986- IV * 1987- III ' IV 2,518.4 2 719 5 3,028.6 3,234.0 3,412.6 3,665.4 3,972.6 2 548 2 2,851.5 3,096.1 3,312.8 3,473.1 3,694.8 3,799.9 1,907.0 2,020.7 2,213.9 2,367.5 2,511.4 2,690.0 2,907.6 1,931.1 2,092.7 2,272.7 2,426.7 2,571.2 2,709.8 2,778.7 24.6 12.4 30.5 30.2 34.7 41.6 39.8 28.5 19.3 28.1 29.2 37.2 33.6 48.4 150.9 178.4 204.0 225.6 247.2 270.0 288.0 159.8 188.6 209.7 235.0 252.0 271.6 280.3 13.6 13.2 8.5 9.2 11.6 13.4 15.7 15.8 12.4 5.6 7.8 13.5 11.5 14.3 150.0 213.7 266.9 282.3 282.1 298.7 328.6 146.1 248.5 266.9 291.4 275.2 313.0 308.2 159.2 196.7 234.2 222.6 228.3 247.8 281.8 150.7 223.4 224.6 228.4 226.1 261.5 255.8 169.6 207.6 240.0 224.3 221.6 266.7 306.8 164.1 231.5 226.1 235.0 234.1 281.0 276.2 -10.4 -10.9 -5.8 -1.7 6.7 -18.9 -25.0 -13.4 -8.1 -1.6 -6.6 -8.0 -19.4 -20.4 -9.2 17.0 32.7 59.7 53.8 50.9 46.8 -4.5 25.1 42.3 63.0 49.1 51.5 52.4 272.3 281.0 304.8 319.0 325.5 351.7 392.9 266.9 290.2 313.1 322.7 324.0 355.3 370.0 1988: I r. 3,853.6 3,933.6 4,005.7 4,097.4 2.819.4 2,878.9 2,935.1 2,997.2 44.0 45.4 37.7 32.0 279.9 286.5 289.3 296.3 15.6 14.6 16.3 16.1 318.1 325.3 330.9 340.2 268.1 276.4 284.1 298.7 288.8 305.3 314.4 318.8 -20.7 -28.8 -30.4 -20.1 49.9 48.9 46.9 41.5 376.6 383.0 396.4 415.7 4,185.2 3,061.7 3,115.7 59.0 52.6 300.3 302.6 11.8 8.7 316.3 279.7 318.0 -38.3 -21.0 36.6 31.7 436.1 458.0 III'. IV ' 1989- I r.. II" 1 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Note. — Series revised beginning 1986. See Survey of Current Business, July 1989. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nondurable goods Durable goods Period Total personal consumption expenditures Total durable goods Motor vehicles and parts Furniture and household equipment Other Total nondurable goods Food Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil Services Other Retail sales of new passenger ears (millions of units) Domestics Imports 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 ' 1987 r 1988 '. 1982- IV 1983: IV 1984- IV 1985: IV 1986- IV r 1987: HI ' IV '. 2,050.7 2,234.5 2 430 5 2,629.0 2,797.4 3,010.8 3,235.1 2,117.0 2,315.8 2,493.4 2,700.4 2,868.5 3,055.9 3,083.3 252.7 289.1 335.5 372.2 406.0 421.0 455.2 263.8 310.0 346.7 373.2 422.0 439.3 424.5 108.9 130.4 157.4 179.1 196.2 195.5 211.6 115.7 144.4 162.3 173.8 201.1 211.3 196.3 95.7 107.1 118.8 129.9 139.7 149.1 162.0 99.1 112.4 122.7 134.7 143.8 151.0 151.4 48.1 51.6 59.3 63.2 70.0 76.5 81.6 49.0 53.2 61.8 64.7 77.1 77.0 76.7 771.0 816.7 867.3 911.2 942.0 998.1 1,052.3 786.6 837.9 879.6 932.7 952.1 1,006.0 1,015.4 398.8 421.9 448.5 471.6 500.0 529.2 559.7 407.0 430.8 456.1 482.5 511.9 531.7 536.8 124.4 135.1 146.7 156.4 166.8 177.2 186.8 126.5 141.1 149.8 160.6 168.7 178.9 180.6 89.1 90.2 90.0 90.6 73.5 75.2 76.8 89.8 91.9 89.0 91.0 66.0 76.8 76.7 158.7 169.5 182.1 192.6 201.7 216.6 229.0 163.4 174.0 184.7 198.5 205.5 218.6 221.3 1,027.0 1,128.7 1,227.6 1,345.6 1,449.5 1,591.7 1,727.6 1,066.5 1,167.9 1,267.1 1,394.5 1,494.4 1,610.6 1,643.3 5.8 6.8 8.0 8.2 8.2 7.1 7.5 6.0 7.4 7.7 7.0 7.7 7.8 6.6 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.3 1988: I ' II r III r IV '. 3,148.1 3,204.9 3,263.4 3,324.0 446.4 454.6 452.5 467.4 210.3 212.5 208.4 215.3 156.9 162.2 162.7 166.1 79.2 79.9 81.4 86.0 1,022.2 1,042.4 1,066.2 1,078.4 542.5 554.5 567.8 574.1 180.8 183.6 188.9 193.9 74.3 76.9 78.3 77.6 224.5 227.5 231.2 232.8 1,679.5 1,707.9 1,744.7 1,778.2 7.7 7.5 7.4 7.5 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 1989: I ' llp 3,381.4 3,437.9 466.4 470.3 211.7 213.3 172.1 173.3 82.6 83.7 1,098.3 1,116.6 587.3 588.6 195.0 198.5 77.9 88.7 238.1 240.9 1,816.7 1,851.0 7.0 7.3 2.8 3.0 Note.—Series revised beginning 1986. See Survey of Current Business, July 1989. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $12.6 billion (annual rate) in June, following an increase of $8.2 billion in May. Wages and salaries increased $13.8 billion in June, compared with an increase of $1.0 billion in May. (Series revised.) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 5,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 5,0001 4,000: 4,000 3,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 1,400 1,400 OTHER INCOME 800 800 TRANSFER PAYMENTS 400 400 Illllllllll 1981 1982 1985 1984 1983 1986 1987 1988 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 r 1987 r 1988 r 1988: June * July T. Aug r Sept T Oct r Nov r Dec r 1989: Jan ', Feb r. Mar p Apr r May r June p. personal income 22584 2 5209 2 6708 2 8386 3 108 7 3 3253 3 526 2 3 777 6 40645 40494 4079 8 4094 2 4 118 6 4 180 4 4 168 9 4 206 3 4 273 1 4 3195 4 3607 43865 4 394 7 4407 3 Wage and salary disbursements * 1 3720 1 5103 1 586 1 1 676 6 1 838 6 1 9754 20948 2 249 4 2 4290 2420 1 2 4434 2447 7 2 465 6 2 497 1 2 501 6 2 516 7 2 5454 2 557 3 2 5794 2 601 3 2 602 3 2 616 1 Proprietors ' income 3 Other labor income 1 2 1384 150 3 163 6 173 6 182 9 187 6 199 3 212 8 228 9 227 5 229 3 231 1 232 9 234 7 236 5 238 2 239 7 241 3 242 9 244 4 246 0 247 5 Farm 205 30 7 24 6 12 4 30 5 30 2 34 7 41 6 39 8 44 7 41 0 38 6 334 47 1 19 5 29 4 48 0 65 9 63 0 57 5 56 1 44 1 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p, 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. * Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 4 With capital consumption adjustment. 8 Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. Nonfarm Rental income of4 persons 160 1 156 1 150 9 178 4 204 0 225 6 247 2 270 0 288 0 66 13 3 13 6 13 2 85 "9 2 11 6 13 4 15 7 287 9 288 5 2885 290 9 295 8 295 7 297 4 299 6 3006 300 8 303 4 302 0 302 3 14 6 15 6 16 5 16 7 16 4 16 1 16 0 13 8 11 8 99 93 86 81 Personal dividend income 52 9 61 3 63 9 68 7 75 5 78 7 85 8 92 0 102 2 101 1 102 4 103 9 104 7 105 8 106 5 106 9 108 4 1094 110 3 111 0 111 4 111 8 Personal interest income 271 9 335 4 369 7 393 1 444 7 4780 493 2 523 2 571 1 565 1 570 1 5760 583 0 590 8 598 6 606 4 616 5 628 9 641 5 648 4 655 2 661 8 Transfer payments 5 324 7 368 1 410 6 442 6 456 6 489 8 521 5 548 2 584 7 582 7 585 7 587 9 588 7 592 2 593 5 595 6 610 7 614 2 624 2 623 9 625 7 629 0 Less: contributions for social insurance Nonfarm personal income 6 886 104 5 112 3 120 1 132 7 149 3 161 9 172 9 194 9 194 3 196 1 195 9 197 2 199 5 199 1 200 1 2 215 8 2 465 6 2 618 7 2 799 0 3 052 1 3 271 3 3 469 4 3 714 7 4 003 7 3 983 6 4 017 9 4 034 6 4 064 1 4 112 3 4 128 4 4 155 9 209 0 209 8 211 3 212 6 212 6 213 4 4 204 0 4 232 4 4 276 5 4 307 7 4 317 2 4 341 8 8 Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. Note.—Series revised beginning 1986. See Survey of Current Business, July 1989. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable personal income fell slightly in the second quarter of 1989. (Series revised.) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 4,000 3,800 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 4,000 3,800 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 6,000 6,000 1989 1981 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS ' SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE . Personal income Period Less: Personal tax and nontax payments F 1 Disposable personal income Less: Personal outlays l Equals: Personal saving Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (billions) Per capita disposable personal income Current dollars Billions of dollars 1980 1981 1982.... 1983 1984 1985 1986 r.... . 1987 r 1988 '. c 2,258.5 2,520.9 2,670.8 2,838.6 3,108.7 3,325.3 3,526.2 3,777.6 4,064.5 340.5 393.3 409.3 410.5 440.2 486.6 512.9 571.7 586.6 c 1,918.0 2,127.6 2^261.4 2,428.1 2^668.6 2,838.7 3^013. 3 3,205.9 3477.8 1982 dollars Per capita personal consumption expenditures Current dollars 1982 dollars Dollars 1,781.1 1,968.1 2^107.5 2,297.4 2^504.5 2,713.3 2388.5 3,104.1 3,333.1 c 136.9 159.4 153.9 130.6 164.1 125.4 124.9 101.8 144.7 2,214.3 2,248.6 2'261.5 2,331.9 2469.8 2,542.8 2^635.3 2,676.6 2^793.2 8,421 9,243 9,724 10,340 11 ^257 11 861 12469 13,140 14J116 Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population, including Armed Forces abroad (thousands) 2 Percent 9,722 9,769 9^724 9,930 10,419 10,625 10^905 10,970 11337 7,607 8,783 8,320 8J818 9,515 10J253 10,985 11^576 12,340 isil31 8,794 8^818 9,139 9J489 9,839 10,123 10,303 10^546 i 1 — .5 7.1 7.5 6.8 2.1 4.9 2.0 2.6 .6 3.3 5.4 6.1 4.4 4.1 3.2 4.2 230,182 232^549 234,829 237J051 239,322 241J660 243,985 246^378 .5 227,754 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: IV IV IV IV IV r .. 2,729.2 2,941.8 3,188.3 3,399.1 3,597.8 411.1 413.9 459.7 499.6 534.4 2,318.1 2,527.9 2,728.6 2,899.5 3,063.4 2,174.9 2,382.5 2,571.3 2,787.7 2,961.4 143.1 145.4 157.3 111.7 102.0 2,276.1 2,392.7 2,496.3 2,562.8 2,646.2 9,929 10,725 11,467 12,068 12,629 9,749 10,151 10,491 10,667 10,909 9,068 9,825 10,479 11,240 11,825 8,904 9,299 9,587 9,935 10,214 1.2 9.1 1.7 3.3 .3 6.2 5.8 5.8 3.9 3.3 233,466 235,707 237,946 240,257 242,579 1987: HI r.. IV r... 3,795.5 3,908.7 572.0 589.2 3,223.5 3,319.4 3,149.9 3,177.6 73.6 141.8 2,675.6 2,726.2 13,196 13,552 10,953 11,130 12,510 12,588 10,384 10,339 5.6 6.6 2.3 4.3 244,274 244,936 1988: I * II r.... Ill r.. IV r... 3,948.5 4,026.6 4,097.6 4,185.2 572.2 590.7 585.9 597.8 3,376.4 3,435.9 3,511.7 3,587.4 3,244.4 3,301.9 3,362.1 3,424.0 131.9 134.0 149.6 163.4 2,757.2 2,773.3 2,806.4 2,835.9 13,754 13,966 14,235 14,504 11,232 11,273 11,377 11,466 12,824 13,028 13,229 13,439 10,473 10,515 10,573 10,624 3.7 1.5 3.7 3.2 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.6 245,476 246,008 246,685 247,343 1989: I T II"... 4,317.8 4,396.2 628.3 651.6 3,689.5 3,744.5 3,483.8 3,540.9 205.7 203.7 2,881.7 2,884.4 14,884 15,071 11,625 11,609 13,641 13,837 10,654 10,659 5.7 -.5 5.6 5.4 247,890 248,453 1 Includes persona! consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and person1 transfer payments to foreigners (net). 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1986. See Survey of Current Business, July 1989. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME n the first quarter of 1989, according to revised estimates, gross farm income rose $18.8 billion (annual rate) and let farm income rose $21.5 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 240 200 240 200 160 160 120 120 " GROSS FARM INCOME 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 NET FARM INCOME 10 10 I I I I I I 1981 1982 I I I 1 1 I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1983 • SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from fanning Net farm income Gross farm income Period Cash marketing receipts Total1 1980 1981 . 1982 1983 . .. 1984 1985 ... 1986 1987 ... 1988 r 1986- III IV 1987: I n in 1988: IV .... I' II r r . mr rv 1989: I T 149.3 166.4 163.5 153.0 174.9 166.2 159.8 169.8 177.5 158.1 162.6 173.6 162.5 168.9 173.7 175.3 182.5 174.9 177.1 195.9 Total 139.7 141.7 142.6 136.6 142.4 144.0 135.1 138.1 151.3 137.8 137.7 134.9 134.4 146.5 136.6 144.2 148.6 160.2 152.0 153.2 Livestock and products 71.7 72.5 72.3 67.1 69.5 74.2 63.6 61.9 72.5 60.5 64.7 61.6 57.4 66.9 61.5 62.5 73.4 82.0 71.8 70.2 68.0 69.2 70.3 69.4 73.0 69.8 71.5 76.2 78.8 77.3 73.0 73.3 77.0 79.6 75.1 81.7 75.2 78.2 80.2 83.0 1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. Crops 3 Value of inventory changes 2 -6.3 6.5 -1.4 -10.9 6.3 -2.4 -2.8 6 -4.3 -2.3 -1.9 -.3 .1 1.9^ -3.2 38 -4.7 5.4 4.7 Production expenses Current dollars 133.1 139.4 140.0 140.4 142.7 134.0 122.3 123.5 132.1 121.1 120.7 120.3 124.1 125.0 124.6 126.7 129.3 135.4 137.0 134.3 1982 dollars 3 16.1 26.9 23.5 12.7 32.2 32.3 37.5 46.3 45.4 37.0 41.9 53.4 38.4 43.9 49.0 48.7 53.2 39.5 40.1 61.6 Income in current dollars divided by the GNP implicit price deflator. NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Credit Corporation loans and operator households. Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce. 18.8 28.6 23.5 12.2 29.9 29.1 32.9 r 39.4 37.4 32.3 r 36.4 r 46.0 32.8 r 37.3 r 41.3 40.8 44.1 32.4 32.6 49.2 CORPORATE PROFITS In the first quarter of 1989, according to revised estimates, corporate profits before tax fell $0.8 billion (annual rate) and after-tax profits fell $2.0 billion. (Series revised.) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 360 360 320 320 /^ 280 280 // 200 ^\ V-_ 160 PRO FITS BEFORE T/ X \ 240 /^ y 200 - ^ S-, N4 80 *"\... "^ —v '<~ 120 80 -J \ - ^.ir.^-^'~ TAX LIABILITY / \ 40 .'--"- — ,..,V"N X \ 160 PR DFITS AFTER T/^X s \ 240 rJvS ' —x 120 ./ ,„--- , -- 40 1V UNDIST ?IBUTED PROFI rs '— — I 1 1 1 1 1 1981 1982 \ 1 1983 I 1 1 1 1 1 I I I 1 1986 1985 1984 I 1 1987 ! [ 1 I 1988 1 1 1 1989 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment 1 Profits after tax Domestic industries Total 2 Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 r 1987 r 1988 r 1982: 1983: 1984: 19851986: 1987: IV IV.. IV IV IV r HI r IV r.. 1988: Ir r II r mr IV 1989- I r TJ" 1 2 3 Financial Total 3 Manufacturing 198.0 206.1 207.3 222.1 21.6 32.5 34.6 38.9 51.2 44.1 44.1 41.1 40.1 33.6 43.1 51.8 38.5 41.0 43.2 41.2 42.2 37.3 39.2 41.8 203.9 96.5 34.1 159.6 173.8 131.2 166.6 203.3 191.4 195.2 208.7 238.2 21.0 16.5 11.8 18.1 13.0 22.8 32.0 30.5 29.8 138.6 157.3 119.4 148.5 190.3 168.6 163.2 178.2 208.4 150.7 223.4 224.6 228.4 226.1 121.6 190.7 193.9 193.6 193.4 18.7 15.5 13.6 26.0 28.6 102.9 175.2 180.3 167.6 164.8 261.5 255.8 222.6 211.8 30.2 29.9 192.4 181.9 268.1 276.4 284.1 298.7 225.7 235.8 239.0 252.2 27.7 29.7 31.6 30.1 279.7 233.1 29.3 Tax liability Wholesale and retail trade 77.1 88.5 58.0 70.1 88.8 79.7 59.5 76.6 98.4 46.8 88.6 79.8 83.8 64.8 87.3 84.5 94.6 98.2 95.1 105.5 194.0 202.3 159.2 196.7 234.2 222.6 228.3 247.8 281.8 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. Includes industries not shown separately. Profits before tax Nonfinancial Period Total Dividends Undistributed profits Inventory valuation adjustment 314.4 318.8 84.8 81.1 63.1 77.2 93.9 96.4 106.3 124.7 137.9 59.8 88.1 87.0 99.8 113.1 132.7 127.3 129.0 138.4 141.2 143.2 152.3 145.4 106.5 130.4 146.1 127.8 115.3 142.0 168.9 104.3 143.4 139.2 135.2 121.0 148.3 148.9 159.9 166.9 173.2 175.6 54.7 63.6 66.9 71.5 79.0 83.3 91.3 98.7 110.4 68.5 73.9 80.8 84.0 93.6 100.0 102.8 105.7 108.6 112.2 115.2 97.6 81.8 39.6 58.9 67.0 44.6 24.0 43.3 58.5 35.8 69.5 58.4 51.2 27.4 48.3 46.1 54.2 58.3 61.1 60.4 -43.1 -24.2 -10.4 -10.9 -5.8 -1.7 6.7 -18.9 -25.0 -13.4 -8.1 -1.6 -6.6 -8.0 -19.4 -20.4 -20.7 -28.8 -30.4 -20.1 318.0 144.4 173.6 118.5 120.9 55.1 -38.3 -21.0 237.1 226.5 169.6 207.6 240.0 224.3 221.6 266.7 306.8 164.1 231.5 226.1 235.0 234.1 281.0 276.2 288.8 305.3 Note.—Series revised beginning 1986. See Survey of Current Business, July 1989. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to advance estimates for the second quarter of 1989, nonresidential fixed investment rose $8.4 billion (annual rate) and residential investment fell $4.8 billion. There was a $32.4 billion increase in inventories, following an increase of $27.7 billion in the first quarter of 1989. (Series revised.) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 800 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC 1MVFSTMFNT 700 y 600 500 / --—, ^^ NONRESIDENTIA ED INVESTMEf / 400 --""" 1r-\^ f ^N """•---. /^ / r^~i i — 500 — — 600 .--""' - ' 400 ^ S* RESIDENTIAL H> ED INVESTMEI-4 1 300 - 300 ,.A- 200 . .*--' 100 700 -^" -X^-l ^-~~ 800 ^~1C~ - ~--V / — — CHA NGE IN BUSIN ESS INVENTORIES /-V_ f* 0 —— —• |-X ,•-v ^•». t r * 200 100 +*""*~. *••.+* t* -100 1 1 1 i i i 1981 1982 ^ 1 1 1 1983 1 1 1 1984 1 1 1 1 1 [ 1985 1986 1 1 1 1987 SOURCE-. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1 1 I i i i 1988 1989 -100 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Change in business inventories Fixed investment Period Gross private domestic investment Nonresidential Total Total Structures Producers' durable equipment Residential Total Nonfarm 437.0 515.5 447.3 502.3 664.8 643.1 659.4 699.9 750.3 445.3 491.5 471.8 509.4 597.1 631.8 652.5 670.6 719.6 322.8 369.2 366.7 356.9 416.0 442.9 435.2 444.3 487.2 113.9 138.5 143.3 124.0 141.1 153.2 139.0 133.8 140.3 208.9 230.7 223.4 232.8 274.9 289.7 296.2 310.5 346.8 122.5 122.3 105.1 152.5 181.1 188.8 217.3 226.4 232.4 -8.3 24.0 ^24.5 -7.1 67.7 11.3 6.9 29.3 30.6 -2.4 18.3 -23.1 .4 60.5 14.6 8.6 30.5 34.2 IV IV IV IV IV T 409.6 579.8 661.8 654.1 648.8 469.5 548.8 616.8 646.8 660.9 354.9 383.9 435.0 451.3 435.8 137.6 127.4 146.6 155.9 133.7 217.3 256.5 288.4 295.5 302.2 114.7 164.9 181.8 195.5 225.1 -59.9 31.0 45.0 7.2 -12.2 -51.1 21.3 41.3 23.7 -8.0 1987- III r IV r 692.8 749.7 683.2 686.3 457.0 458.6 137.3 138.9 319.8 319.7 226.2 227.7 9.5 63.3 14.0 61.3 1988- I r II r III r IV * 728.8 748.4 771.1 752.8 698.7 719.1 726.5 734.1 472,7 487.1 493.2 495.8 237.1 139.9 142.0 142.5 335.6 347.2 351.3 353.3 226.1 232.1 233.2 238.4 30.0 29.3 44.6 18.7 24.2 30.4 41.5 40.8 1989- I r II p 769.6 777.9 742.0 745.5 503.1 511.5 144.7 142.6 358.5 368.9 238.8 234.0 27.7 32.4 19.1 25.3 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 r 1987 r 1988 r. 19821983198419851986- NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1986. See Survey of Current Business, July 1989. Source: Department of Commeree, Bureau of Economic Analysis. EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT According to the Commerce Department April-May survey, business spending for new plant and equipment is expected to rise 9.9 percent in 1989, following a rise of 10.3 percent in 1988. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 400 1 400 r ALL INDUSTRIES 300 300 —T NONMANUFACTURING -^ 200 200 7 MANUFACTURING 100 ,100 80 80 60 60 40 40 1981 1982 1985 1984 1983 1987 1986 1988 _i/ SURVEYED QUARTERLY 2J SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Addenda Industries surveyed quarterly Nonmanufacturing Manufacturing Period All industries Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985.. 1986 1987 1988 1989 4 282.80 315.22 310.58 304.78 354.44 387.13 379.47 389.67 429.67 472.08 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.48 142.69 145.90 165.70 179.35 55.36 59.81 55.35 53.08 66.24 73.27 69.14 71.01 78.12 82.13 56.96 66.73 65.33 63.12 72.58 80.21 73.56 74.88 87.58 97.22 1987: III IV 394.54 406.82 148.20 152.21 71.96 72.28 1988: I . . II III. . IV 412.02 426.94 436.01 443.71 158.60 161.69 168.91 173.61 1989: I 4 II Ill 4 IV4 457.64 467.50 478.79 484.38 175.83 177.10 182.70 181.79 10 Nonmanufacturing Manufacturing Total Surveyed quarterly 202.15 222.72 226.79 227.15 260.16 278.46 284.54 294.77 316.70 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.65 236.78 243.78 263.97 292.72 Mining Transportation Public utilities 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.65 236.78 243.78 263.97 292.72 15.99 21.39 20.05 15.19 16.86 15.88 11.22 11.39 12.67 12.00 16.60 15.84 14.79 13.97 16.52 18.02 18.80 18.85 21.35 24.86 37.74 41.21 45.43 44.96 47.48 48.81 46.38 44.88 46.51 50.77 100.14 110.24 109.63 114.45 134.75 150.94 160.38 168.65 183.44 205.09 76.24 79.92 246.34 254.61 11.81 12.32 19.19 19.34 45.29 46.38 170.05 176.56 148.20 152.21 246.34 254.61 75.70 76.87 79.48 80.42 82.90 84.82 89.43 93.18 253.43 265.25 267.10 270.11 12.59 13.26 12.47 12.35 20.43 20.72 22.17 22.10 44.61 45.43 46.70 49.27 175.79 185.83 185.76 186.38 158.60 161 69 168.91 173.61 253.43 265 25 267.10 270.11 81.71 80.21 84.08 82.54 94.12 96.89 98.61 99.25 281.81 290.40 296.09 302.59 12.12 13.08 12.21 10.60 23.24 23.11 25.85 27.24 50.26 51.42 50.18 51.24 196.20 202.79 207.86 213.51 175.83 177 10 182.70 181.79 281.81 29040 296.09 30259 Durable goods Nondurable goods Total l 1 Excludes fores irestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; social services and md membership organizations; organisations; and »MU real rum estate, F!KT.HT.RI which, wnj'.'n, effective enecuve with-the wiui ~uie H.J.THApril-May 1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See !ast column ("nonmanufacturing surveyed i ally") for data-for these industries.' 2 "All industries" plus the part of nonmanufacturing that is surveyed annually. Total nonfarm business 2 Commercial and other 314.47 349.26 347.47 343.35 398.99 431.94 427.23 440.66 482.40 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.48 142.69 145.90 165.70 179.35 Surveyed annually" 31.68 34.04 36.89 38.56 44.55 44.81 47.75 50.99 52.73 3 Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate. 4 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in April-May 1989, corrected for biases. Source: Department of Commerce-, Bureau of the Census'. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES In June, civilian employment rose 326,000 and unemployment rose 166,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 124 124 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 120 120 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE 116 116 112 112 108 108 T 104 104 CIVILIAN " EMPLOYMENT 100 100 96 96 *S "^ ^. ** 12 12 8 8 UNEMPLOYMENT 4 4 0 IIMlllll 1982 1981 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1989 1988 • 16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Civilian employment Noninstitutional population including resident Armed Forces NSA Resident Armed Forces 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986' 1987 1988 169,349 171,775 173,939 175,891 178,080 179,912 182,293 184,490 186,322 1,604 1,645 1,668 1,676 1,697 1,706 1,706 1,737 1,709 108,544 110,315 111,872 113,226 115,241 117,167 119,540 121,602 123,378 100,907 102,042 101,194 102,510 106,702 108,856 111,303 114,177 116,677 106,940 108,670 110,204 111,550 113,544 115,461 117,834 119,865 121,669 99,303 100,397 99,526 100,834 105,005 107,150 109,597 112,440 114,968 3,364 3,368 3,401 3,383 3,321 3,179 3,163 3,208 3,169 95,938 97,030 96,125 97,450 101,685 103,971 106,434 109,232 111,800 1988: June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 186,247 186,402 186,522 186,666 186,801 186,949 187,098 1,685 1,673 1,692 1,704 1,687 1,705 1,696 123,209 123,331 123,692 123,688 123,778 124,215 124,259 116,686 116,707 116,895 117,074 117,260 117,652 117,705 121,524 121,658 122,000 121,984 122,091 122,510 122,563 115,001 115,034 115,203 115,370 115,573 115,947 116,009 3,121 3,060 3,142 3,176 3,238 3,238 3,193 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June 187,340 187,461 187,581 187,708 187,854 187,995 1,696 1,684 1,684 1,684 1,673 1,666 125,124 124,865 124,948 125,343 125,283 125,768 118,407 118,537 118,820 118,797 118,888 119,207 123,428 123,181 123,264 123,659 123,610 124,102 116,711 116,853 117,136 117,113 117,215 117,541 3,300 3,223 3,206 3,104 3,112 3,096 Period 1980 NSA Labor force including resident Armed Forces Employment including resident Armed Forces Nonagricultural Civilian labor force Agricultural Total 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc. 2 Civilian labor force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population. Unemployment Civilian Labor force participation rate (percent) 2 Employment/ population ratio (percent) * Total 15 weeks and over 4,064 4,499 5,852 5,997 5,512 5,334 5,345 5,122 4,965 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,237 7,425 6,701 1,871 2,285 3,485 4,210 2,737 2,305 2,232 1,983 1,610 63.9 64.0 64.0 64.4 64.8 65.3 65.6 65.9 59.2 59.0 57.8 57.9 59.5 60.1 60.7 61.5 62.3 111,880 111,974 112,061 112,194 112,335 112,709 112,816 5,073 5,102 4,972 4,862 4,727 4,819 5,033 6,523 6,624 6,797 6,614 6,518 6,563 6,554 1,543 1,619 1,636 1,568 1,554 1,502 1,495 65.8 65.9 66.0 66.0 66.0 66.1 66.1 62.3 62.3 62.3 62.4 62.4 62.6 62.6 113,411 113,630 113,930 114,009 114,102 114,445 4,837 4,697 4,709 4,930 4,609 4,801 6,716 6,328 6,128 6,546 6,395 6,561 1,512 1,304 1,310 1,426 1,313 1,258 66.5 66.3 66.3 66.5 66.4 66.6 62.9 62.9 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.1 Total Part time for economic reasons l 63.8 ' Data beginning January 1986 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of change in estimation procedures. gource. Department „[ Llbor, Bureau of Ubor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In June, both the overall and the civilian unemployment rates rose slightly, to 5.2 and 5.3 percent, respectively. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 25 20 ^4H ^vfc 15 TEENAGERS (16-19) 10 10 WOMEN 20 YEARS AND OVER MEN 20 YEARS AND OVER 0 lll i 1985 1989 1985 1 1986 1987 i n 1 1 1 H 'f | 1 1 n 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 (1989 1988 •UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. SOURCE- DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) Period Unemployment rate, all workers l By sex and age All civilian workers Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over By selected groups By race Both sexes 16-19 years White Black and other Black 7.1 5.9 7.6 9.7 9.6 7.5 7.2 7.0 6.2 5.5 6.3 8.8 8.9 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.4 4.8 6.4 6.8 8.3 8.1 6.8 6.6 6.2 5.4 4.9 17.8 19.6 23.2 22.4 18.9 18.6 18.3 16.9 15.3 6.3 6.7 8.6 8.4 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.3 4.7 13.1 14.2 17.3 17.8 14.4 13.7 13.1 11.6 10.4 14.3 15.6 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 7.0 7.5 9.5 9.5 7.4 7.1 6.9 6.1 5.4 1988: June.... July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.3 4.6 4.5 4.9 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.9 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 14.1 15.1 15.4 15.5 15.0 14.1 14.8 4.6 4.7 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 1989: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June .... 5.4 5.1 4.9 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.1 5.0 5.3 5.2 5.3 4.6 4.5 4.2 4.6 4.3 4.3 4.7 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 16.4 14.8 13.7 14.4 15.2 15.6 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.6 4.4 4.5 1980 1981 1982 1 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces. 2 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. 19 Experienced wage and salary workers Married men, spouse present Women who maintain families Labor force time lost (percent) 2 Fulltime workers Parttime workers 10.4 9.8 9.2 8.1 6.9 7.3 9.6 9.5 7.2 6.8 6.6 5.8 5.2 8.8 9.4 10.5 10.4 9.3 9.3 9.1 8.4 7.6 10.9 8.6 8.1 7.9 7.1 6.3 18.9 19.5 15.9 15.1 14.5 13.0 11.7 6.9 7.3 9.3 9.2 7.1 6.8 6.6 5.8 5.2 4.2 4.3 6.5 10.3 10.1 10.0 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.0 11.7 11.5 11.4 10.9 11.2 11.2 11.6 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.0 3.2 3.1 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.1 7.9 8.5 7.5 8.1 7.9 7.7 8.2 5.0 5.0 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.1 7.7 8.0 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.1 7.0 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.1 6.2 6.3 10.6 10.6 9.8 9.6 9.5 10.3 12.0 11.9 10.9 10.8 11.0 11.9 5.2 4.8 4.7 5.1 4.9 5.0 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.2 2.9 2.8 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.6 8.3 7.9 5.0 4.8 4.8 5.0 4.8 4.8 7.9 7.3 6.2 7.2 6.9 7.7 6.2 5.9 5.8 6.0 5.9 6.1 6.5 4.6 4.3 4.4 3.9 3.3 9.2 10.4 11.7 12.2 10.3 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 7.9 8.5 11.0 SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In June, the percentage of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks rose and the percentages for 5-14 weeks, for 15-26 weeks, and for 27 weeks and over fell. The mean duration of unemployment fell and the median duration rose. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 70 REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT 60 — 50 -'• 40 - 30 REENTRANTS - V--A-. 20 O$ LEAVERS 10 - - 10 N£W ENTRANTS iniiliii 1985 1985 1989 1986 1987 1988 1989 "SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment (thousands) Pereent distribution Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,237 7,425 6,701 43.1 41.7 36.4 33.3 39.2 42.1 41.9 43.7 46.0 6,523 6,624 6,797 6,614 6,518 6,563 6,554 6,716 6,328 6,128 6,546 6,395 6,561 Reason for unemployment: percent distribution Insured State programs Number of weeks 15-26 weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Median 32.3 30.7 31.0 27.4 28.7 30.2 31.0 29.6 30.0 13.8 13.6 16.0 15.4 12.9 12.3 12.7 12.7 12.0 10.7 14.0 16.6 23.9 19.1 15.4 14.4 14.0 12.1 11.9 13.7 15.6 20.0 18.2 15.6 15.0 14.5 13.5 6.5 6.9 8.7 10.1 7.9 6.8 6.9 6.5 5.9 51.7 51.6 58.7 58.4 51.8 49.8 48.9 48.0 46.1 47.3 44.9 46.8 47.4 47.4 47.6 46.2 29.2 30.7 29.0 28.8 28.5 29.5 31.1 11.4 12.4 12.3 11.8 12 2 12.0 11.5 12.1 11.9 11.9 12.1 11.9 10.9 11.2 13.2 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.4 12.6 12.8 5.9 6.2 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.8 47.0 50.6 49.4 47.2 47.7 50.4 30.7 29.1 29.4 31.1 31.7 30.4 11.2 10.4 10.5 10.5 11.0 10.0 11.1 10.0 10.7 11.3 9.6 9.1 12.7 12.1 12.4 12.7 11.8 11.1 5.7 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.3 55 Job leavers Insured unemployment ployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) 1 Reentrants New entrants 11.7 11.2 7.9 7.7 9.6 10.6 12.3 13.0 14.7 25.2 25.4 22.3 22.5 25.6 27.1 26.2 26.6 27.0 11.4 11.9 11.1 11.3 13.0 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.2 3,350 3,047 4,061 3,396 2,476 2,611 2,650 2,332 2,056 488 460 583 438 377 396 378 328 306 3,837 3,410 4,594 3,775 2,561 2,693 2,746 2,401 2,125 46.7 46.1 46.2 46.7 45.9 46.2 46.5 14.5 13.8 14.6 14.9 15.3 14.7 15.1 26.6 28.1 27.3 26.8 27.2 26.9 26.2 12.2 1L9 11.9 11.5 11.6 12.2 12.1 2,050 2,082 2,069 2,025 1,972 1,989 2,032 304 327 305 293 296 301 309 1,881 2,052 1,914 1,734 1,677 1,857 2,205 46.4 45.2 46.0 45.7 42.7 42.0 14.7 15.5 14.4 15.0 17.5 15.5 27.3 27.3 28.1 29.0 29.1 31.2 11.6 12.0 11.6 10.3 10.7 11.3 2,061 2,105 2,143 2,105 2,063 2,134 293 309 323 300 317 335 2,685 2,695 2,567 2,221 Job losers Initial claims Weekly average, thousands 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988: June July Sept Oct Dec 1989: Jan Fob Mar Mav 1 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistic and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 180,000 in June. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 7101 ."'' .XI 26 SERVICES 100 ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 24 90 s"' - V-l ~ ^. ---"" - 22 — 80 "V RETAIL TRADE — SERVICE-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 70 - 20 18 ^— - —• " r^ • ^\ 1 UOVhKNMfcN J__-A-J—--"* Timlmiiliimlmiihiiiihiiii mull mi) 60 MANUFACTURING 20 50 \ —, 18 40 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 it IIMIlltllll 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 T 1 Ilk 1 GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 30 20 Hhuili 1985 1986 1987 1988 1985 1989 1989 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers; l seasonally adjusted] -1 Penou 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 Manufacturing Total 2 Construction Total 1985 1986 1987 1988 90,406 91,156 89,566 90,200 94,496 97,519 99,525 102,200 105,584 25,658 25*497 23,813 23*334 24,727 24*859 24,558 24J708 25,249 4,346 4*,188 3,905 3348 4,383 4*373 4,816 4367 5,125 20,285 20470 18,781 18434 19,378 19*,260 18,965 19324 19,403 1988: June... July.... Aug.... Sept.... Oct Nov.... Dec 105,561 105,768 105,954 106,207 106,475 106,824 107,097 25,265 25,323 25,303 25,313 25,384 25,460 25,513 5,139 5,150 5,153 5,163 5,162 5,191 5,213 1989: 107,442 107,711 107,888 108,101 108,308 108,488 25,626 25,629 25,646 25,671 25,661 25,610 5,267 5,270 5,252 5,279 5,278 5,270 Jan Peb Mar Apr r... May r.. June p Service-producing industries Goods-producing industries T notal tn] nonagricultural employment c D m-oHlo urauie goods Nondurable goods 12,187 12*,109 11,039 10*,732 11,505 11,490 11,230 8,098 8361 7,741 Transportation and public utilities "R of oil netan trade Finance, insurance, and real estate 6,676 19,096 19,139 19,182 19,188 19,229 19,282 19,328 6,672 6,678 6,686 6,695 6,710 6,726 6,744 25,597 25,683 25,784 25,888 25,986 26,111 26,230 17,362 17,350 17,376 17,471 17,484 17,525 17,523 2,956 2,958 2,967 2,985 2,986 2,983 2,981 19,407 19,460 19,488 19,489 19,524 19,525 6,746 6,763 6,774 6,776 6,790 6,801 26,318 26,434 26,520 26,651 26,728 26,887 17,545 17,587 17,597 17,626 17,683 17,715 2,978 2,982 2,982 2,982 2,998 2,998 6,027 6,038 6,051 6,071 6,086 6,104 6,125 5,654 5,667 5,666 5,682 5,700 5,721 6,146 6,171 6,197 6,206 6,222 6,229 19,400 19,448 19,425 19,431 19,505 19,557 19,589 11,431 11,475 11,462 11,464 11,509 11,545 11,565 7,969 7,973 7,963 7,967 7,996 8,012 8,024 80,296 80,445 80,651 80,894 81,091 81,364 81,584 19,648 19,648 19,680 19,672 19,661 19,630 11,605 11,594 11,604 11,600 11,591 11,561 8,043 8,054 8,076 8,072 8,070 8,069 81,816 82,082 82,242 82,430 82,647 82,878 5,111 Federal 15337 15369 16,024 16394 16,693 17310 17,372 5,542 5,557 5,572 5,581 5,596 5,616 5,634 11*,437 5,159 5^238 5,255 5372 5,548 Total 2,866 2,772 2,739 2,774 2,807 2,875 2,899 2,943 2,971 5,753 5344 6,029 7,873 7*,770 7,734 7330 7,967 1 5,275 5,358 5,278 5,268 5,555 Government Services 17,890 18319 19,036 19J694 20,797 22*000 23,053 24*236 25,600 5,160 5J298 5,341 5J468 5,689 5355 6,283 5,146 5,165 5,082 4 954 ^IV^^ 1,102 Wholesale trade 15,035 15J189 15,179 15*613 16,545 17*356 17,930 18*483 19,110 64,748 65*659 65,753 66366 69,769 72360 74,967 77*492 80,335 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad Total 6,54:1 16,241 weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. 2 Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average gross weekly earnings Average gross hourly earnings Average weekly hours Total i rivate nonagric Manufacturing Total private nonagricultural l Period Total 35.3 35.2 34.8 35.0 35.2 34.9 34.8 34.8 34.7 34,7 34.8 34.6 34.7 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.6 34.7 34.9 34.6 34.6 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988- June July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989- Jan Feb Mar Apr ' May T. June p 39.7 39.8 38.9 40.1 40.7 40.5 40.7 41.0 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.0 41.1 41.2 41.2 41.0 41.1 41.1 41.0 41.3 41.0 40.9 Overtime 2.8 2.8 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 Total private nonagricultural 1 Manufacturing $6.66 7.25 7.68 8.02 8.32 8.57 8.76 8.98 9.29 9.27 9.31 9.32 9.37 9.43 9.42 9.45 9.49 9.52 9.54 9.61 9.61 9.62 1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (on a 1977 = 100 base). 2 $7.27 7.99 8.49 8.83 9.19 9.54 9.73 9.91 10.18 10.18 10.18 10.21 10.25 10.29 10.30 10.31 10.33 10.37 10.40 10.40 10.42 10.45 3 Current dollars Current dollars 1977 dollars " Manufacturing Construction Retail trade $235.10 $172.74 170.13 168.09 171.26 172.78 170.42 171.07 169.28 167.81 167.89 168.39 166.82 167.68 168.55 167.28 167.39 167.55 166.44 166.44 167.53 165.18 165.10 $288.62 318.00 330.26 354.08 374.03 386.37 396.01 406.31 418.40 418.40 418.40 418.61 421.28 423.95 424.36 422.71 424.56 426.21 426.40 429.52 427.22 427.41 $367.78 399.26 426.82 442.97 458.51 464.46 466.75 480.44 493.08 494.16 493.29 492.53 494.05 499.66 503.04 497.07 496.89 498.39 501.23 505.21 494.54 497.96 $147.38 158.03 163.85 171.05 174.33 174.64 176.08 178.70 183.62 183.33 185.18 183.57 185.08 186.30 185.60 187.11 187.40 186.41 186.98 189.44 187.56 188.43 255.20 267.26 280.70 292.86 299.09 304.85 312.50 322.36 321.67 323.99 322.47 325.14 328.16 326.87 327.92 330.25 329.39 331.04 335.39 332.51 332.85 Percent change from a year ear ier, total private nonagricultural 3 Current dollars 6.9 8.5 4.7 5.0 4.3 2.1 1.9 2.5 3.2 3.3 4.1 2.8 4.2 4.1 3.3 3.9 4.2 3.5 4.1 4.5 3.3 3.2 1977 dollars -5.8 15 -1.2 1.9 .9 14 .4 10 -.9 -.5 .1 -1.2 0 -.1 9 -.5 o 12 -.8 7 -2.0 19 Based on seasonally unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY [Not seasonally adjusted] Percent change from Index (June 1981 = 100) 12 months earlier 3 months earlier Period 1980: 198119821983198419851986: 19871988' 1986: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dee Dec Mar Sent Dec 1987- Mar June Sept Dec 1988- Mar June Sept Dec 1989' Mar June . .. Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits ' 94.7 104.0 110.7 117.0 122.7 127.5 131.6 136.0 142.6 128.9 129.0 130.8 131.6 132.9 133.8 135.1 136.0 138.1 139.8 141.2 142.6 144.4 146.1 95.4 103.8 110.3 115.8 120.6 125.6 129.5 133.8 139.3 126.8 129.9 128.8 129.5 130.8 131.7 133.0 133.8 135.1 136.6 137.9 139.3 140.8 142.2 93.0 104.3 111.7 120.0 127.9 132.4 136.9 141.7 151.3 134.2 134.8 136.1 136.9 138.1 139.3 140.3 141.7 146.1 148.2 149.7 151.3 154.0 156.5 1 Employer costs for employee benefits. NOTE.—The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the c t of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries. Total compensation Wages and salaries Total compensation Wages and salaries 2.1 2.0 1.3 1.2 1.3 .6 .6 .7 1.0 1.1 .8 .7 .6 2.0 1.8 1.2 1.1 1.2 .6 .5 .6 1.0 1.0 .9 .7 .5 2.2 2.3 1.5 1.3 1.4 .5 .6 1.0 1.1 1.4 .4 1.0 .6 9.8 9.8 6.4 5.7 4.9 3.9 3.2 3.3 4.9 3.8 3.8 3.2 3.2 9.0 8.8 6.3 5.0 4.1 4.1 3.1 3.3 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.1 3.1 11.8 12.2 7.1 7.4 6.6 3.5 3.4 3.5 6.8 3.2 3.5 3.3 3.4 1.0 .7 1.0 .7 1.0 .7 1.0 .6 .9 .9 .7 1.0 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.3 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 3.1 1.4 1.0 1.1 3.9 4.5 4.5 4.9 3.3 3.7 3.7 4.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.8 1.6 4.6 4.5 4.2 4.1 2.9 3.3 3.1 3.5 5.8 6.4 6.7 6.8 5.4 5.6 Benefits ' Benefits ' Data exclude farm and household workers. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output per hour of all persons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Output ' Business sector Hours of all persons z Nonfarm business sector Business sector Compensation per hour 3 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real compensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit labor costs Business sector Nonfarm business sector Implicit price deflator 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector 1977 = 100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 1983 1984 99.3 100.7 100.3 103.0 105.5 98.8 99.8 99.2 102.5 104.6 106.7 108.9 105.5 109.9 119.2 106.7 108.5 104.9 110.1 119.2 107.5 108.2 105.2 106.8 112.9 108.0 108.7 105.7 107.5 114.0 131.5 143.7 154.9 161.4 167.9 131.3 143.6 154.8 161.5 167.8 96.7 95.8 97.3 98.2 97.9 96.6 95.8 97.2 98.3 97.9 132.5 142.7 154.5 156.7 159.1 132.9 144.0 156.0 157.6 160.4 127.6 139.8 148.1 153.0 158.2 127.8 140.3 149.2 154.3 159.0 1985 1986. . 1987 1988 107.7 110.1 111.0 112.2 106.1 108.2 109.0 110.6 124.2 128.6 133.3 139.4 123.9 128.2 133.0 139.9 115.3 116.8 120.1 124.3 116.8 118.5 122.1 126.6 175.5 183.1 190.4 199.4 174.9 182.3 189.4 198.0 98.8 101.2 101.5 102.1 98.5 100.8 101.0 101.4 162.9 166.3 171.5 177.8 164.9 168.6 173.8 179.1 162.2 165.8 170.5 175.7 16&%" 167.8 172.5 177.3 IV IV IV IV 101.0 103.8 105.9 108.5 99.7 103.3 104.9 106.5 105.0 113.6 120.8 125.9 104.2 114.1 120.7 125.5 103.9 109.4 114.0 116.1 104.5 110.4 115.1 117.9 158.3 163.6 170.3 178.8 158.2 163.4 170.2 177.9 98.0 98.1 98.0 99.4 97.9 97.9 98.0 98.9 156.8 157.6 160.7 164.8 158.7 158.2 162.3 167.1 150.2 155.2 159.8 163.7 151.4 156.2 161.0 165.5 1986: HI IV 110.0 109.8 108.0 107.8 128.5 129.3 128.1 128.8 116.8 117.8 118.6 119.5 184.0 186.2 183.1 185.4 101.6 102.1 101.2 101.7 167.3 169.6 169.5 172.1 167.0 167.5 169.0 169.5 1987: I 109.9 110.6 111.7 111.8 107.8 108.6 109.6 109.9 130.5 132.2 134.3 136.2 130.1 131.9 134.1 136.0 118.8 119.5 120.3 121.8 120.7 121.5 122.3 123.8 187.3 189.0 191.1 194.0 186.4 187.9 190.0 192.9 101.4 101.1 101.3 101.9 100.9 100.5 100.7 101.4 170.5 170.8 171.1 173.5 172.9 173.0 173.3 175.6 168.7 170.1 171.2 171.9 170.9 171.9 173.2 174.0 112.8 111.8 112.3 112.0 110.8 110.1 110.7 110.9 138.0 138.8 139.8 140.9 137.9 139.2 140.5 142.1 122.3 124.1 124.5 125.8 124.4 126.4 126.9 128.1 195.8 198.1 201.1 203.2 194.6 196.6 199.4 201.9 101.9 102.0 102.4 102.3 101.3 101.3 101.5 101.7 173.5 177.1 179.0 181.4 175.7 178.6 180.2 182.0 172.3 174.7 176.8 179.0 174.2 176.2 178.0 180.6 112.5 110.6 142.7 142.9 126.8 129.2 205.9 204.6 102.3 101.7 183.0 185.0 180.5 182.0 1980 1981 1982. 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: n ni IV 1988: I n m IV 1989: I Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 1982 1983 1984 -0.3 1.4 -.4 2.7 2.5 -0.4 1.0 6 3.3 2.1 1i 2.1 -3.1 4.2 8.4 -1.2 1.7 33 5.0 8.3 -0.8 .7 -2.8 1.5 5.7 -0.7 .7 -2.7 1.6 6.0 10.5 9.2 7.8 4.2 4.1 10.5 9.4 7.8 4.3 3.9 -2.7 -1.0 1.6 .9 -.2 -2.7 -.8 1.5 1.1 -.4 10.9 7.7 8.3 1.4 1.5 11.0 8.3 8.4 1.0 1.8 9.0 9.6 5.9 3.3 3.3 9.7 9.7 6.3 3.5 3.0 1985 1986 1987 1988 2.1 2.2 .8 1.1 1.4 2.0 .8 1.5 4.2 3.5 3.6 4.6 3.9 3.5 3.8 5.2 2.1 1.3 2.8 3.5 2.5 1.5 3.0 3.7 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.8 4.2 4.2 3.8 4.6 .9 2.4 .3 .6 .6 2.3 .2 .4 2.4 2.1 3.1 3.7 2.8 2.2 3.1 3.1 2.5 2.3 2.8 3.1 3.0 2.4 2.8 2.8 IV IV IV IV 3.0 3.1 1.7 .7 2.4 1.4 1.2 .2 -.5 10.4 3.5 3.6 -1.2 9.8 3.1 3.5 -3.4 7.1 1.8 2.9 -3.5 8.2 1.9 3.4 4.5 5.5 3.8 5.4 5.0 4.3 3.9 5.1 3.2 1.4 .3 1.2 3.8 .2 .4 .9 1.5 2.3 2.1 4.7 2.6 2.8 2.7 4.9 2.4 4.8 2.7 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.3 2.1 1986: HI IV -1.4 -.8 -1.5 -.9 .9 2.5 .8 2.4 2.3 3.4 2.4 3.3 4.4 4.8 4.3 5.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.2 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.1 5.0 1.1 5.1 1.2 .3 2.7 3.9 .6 .0 3.2 3.7 .9 3.7 5.3 6.6 5.7 4.0 5.7 6.8 5.9 3.4 2.5 2.6 5.1 4.0 2.5 2.9 4.9 2.5 3.6 4.6 6.2 2.1 3.4 4.5 6.4 -2.8 -1.2 .9 2.4 -3.2 -1.4 .7 2.6 2.2 .8 .7 5.6 2.1 _2 .7 5.4 3.0 3.2 2.8 1.4 3.3 2.3 3.1 1.8 3.5 -3.4 1.7 -1.0 3.4 -2.4 2.0 1.0 5.5 2.4 2.8 3.3 5.6 4.0 3.5 4.8 1.9 6.0 1.1 4.3 2.1 6.6 1.5 3.7 3.7 4.8 6.2 4.3 3.5 4.2 5.7 5.2 .0 .3 1.4 2 ^ -.3 .9 .7 .2 8.5 4.4 5.4 .1 6.8 3.7 4.1 1.0 5.8 4.7 5.1 .6 4.7 4.1 6.0 -1.1 5.1 2.2 3.4 3.4 5.4 5.4 .0 .0 3.6 6.6 3.6 3.2 1980 1981.... 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1987: I n m IV 1988: I n m IV 1989: I 1.7 1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1982 dollars. 2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed. 4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers. 16 5 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Data do not reflect revisions beginning 1986 of GNP and related items published July 27, 1989. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production and capacity utilization fell slightly again in June. INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) 160 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 140 120 INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) 240 FINAL PRODUCTS 220 _— -* r---^ *" •v . SPACE euuiPMENl 200 180 ^-^ 100 ' " •"'" •<*.s~ -"*•"" 120 CONSUMER GOODS NONDURABLE 120 iiii;li|iii miilitm 100 100 Minium Illlillllll Illlillllll Illlillllll Illlillllll UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION 120 UTILITIES pe-,^_^ f- f''""4 -s v X A~- •^^T^~ -—' 80 -V^__-q 1985 1986 ?987 \^-^ 1988 ^~"1 - — MINING iimium nnilnm Illlillllll Minlmii Illlillllll Illlillllll IMI.IlMM /*""* V 100 ^ PERCENT* 100 CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE (TOTAL INDUSTRY) 90 140 A-»~* ^~ i DURABLE "^~=' ^ 140 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION r ^ BUSINESS EQUIPMENT Illlillllll 160 140 ~ 160 miilmn Illlillllll Illlillllll DEFEH-E AND 70 Illlillllll !989 Minium mnlmii imiliMii Illlillllll !985 1986 1987 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 1988 Illlillllll J989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Period Index, 1977=100 Mining Total Durable Utilities Nondurable Total industry Manufacturing -1.9 2.2 -7.1 5.9 11.2 1.9 1.1 3.8 5.7 84.21 108.2 110.5 102.2 110.2 123.4 126.4 129.1 134.7 142.7 49.10 109.1 111.1 99.9 107.7 124.2 127.6 128.4 133.1 141.9 35.11 107.0 109.7 105.5 113.7 122.3 124.6 130.1 136.8 143.9 9.83 112.4 117.5 109.3 102.9 111.1 108.9 100.4 100.7 103.4 5.96 107.3 107.1 104.8 105.2 110.7 111.1 108.5 110.3 114.3 80.9 79.9 72.1 74.6 81.0 80.4 79.4 80.7 83.3 79.3 78.2 70.3 73.9 80.5 80.1 79.7 81.1 83.5 Nov Dec 136.5 138.0 138.5 138.6 139.4 139.9 140.4 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.7 5.2 5.1 4.9 142.1 143.6 144.0 144.4 145.3 145.8 146.3 141.7 142.9 143.2 143.8 144.6 145.2 145.7 142.6 144.6 145.1 145.3 146.3 146.7 147.1 103.0 104.3 103.8 103.7 103.1 104.7 104.9 113.2 114.4 117.8 113.0 113.9 113.7 115.4 83.0 83.7 83.8 83.7 84.0 84.1 84.3 83.3 84.0 84.0 84.0 84.3 84.4 84.4 Jan Feb .. .. Mar r Apr ' May r June " 140.8 140.5 140.7 141.6 141.4 141.1 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.6 3.9 3.4 147.2 146.8 147.0 147.8 147.7 147.7 146.2 145.9 145.8 146.9 146.7 146.5 148.5 148.1 148.6 149.2 149.2 149.3 103.0 100.9 101.5 102.6 102.3 101.2 114.0 116.5 117.5 117.4 117.1 115.7 84.3 83.9 83.8 84.1 83.8 83.5 84.7 84.3 84.1 84.4 84.1 83.8 1988- June July Sept Oct 1 Manufacturing Percent change from year earlier 100.0 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.4 123.7 125.1 129.8 137.2 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989: Capacity utilization rate, percent l Industry production indexes, 1977 — 100 Total industrial production Output as percent of capacity. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1977= 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Products Materials Final products Intermediate products Consumer goods Equipment Period Total Total 1980 1981 1982 . . 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988- June July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989- Jan Feb Mar r Apr r... . . May r June " 44.77 25.52 112.2 115.2 109.5 114.7 127.3 131.0 132.5 136.8 144.3 144.0 145.0 145.8 145.8 146.4 146.8 147.7 148.2 148.6 148.9 150.0 149.9 149.7 102.7 104.1 101.4 109.3 118.0 119.8 124.0 127.8 133.9 133.0 134.2 135.0 134.8 136.4 136.8 138.2 138.5 138.7 138.4 139.2 138.7 138.3 Durable goods Nondurable goods 6.89 88.4 89.7 82.9 98.5 112.2 112.5 115.6 120.2 125.3 125.3 125.3 125.7 126.3 129.3 129.2 131.9 131.5 131.6 130.1 131.8 130.9 129.8 18.63 108.1 109.3 108.3 113.3 120.1 122.5 127.1 130.6 137.1 135.8 137.5 138.5 138.0 139.0 139.7 140.5 141.1 141.4 141.4 141.9 141.6 141.5 Total ' Business Defense and space equipment 14.34 125.1 127.6 113.6 115.4 134.2 140.2 139.5 144.5 157.6 3.67 115.4 119.8 133.0 143.1 156.4 171.4 182.0 188.9 185.8 12.94 106.9 107.3 101.7 111.2 124.7 129.3 136.2 143.4 151.5 158.1 159.3 160.2 160.8 160.2 161.2 162.6 163.8 165.0 166.3 167.7 168.4 168.0 184.6 184.9 184.9 184.5 184.0 182.2 180.5 150.0 151.6 152.3 152.9 154.0 154.2 155.0 180.0 179.3 178.7 179.9 180.1 180.4 156.6 155.1 156.1 156.6 156.6 156.6 19.25 124.7 129.9 120.2 121.7 139.6 145.8 143.6 148.9 158.2 158.5 159.4 160.1 160.4 159.7 159.9 160.4 161.1 161.6 162.8 164.3 164.8 164.7 Total Construction supplies 5.95 100.6 98.6 88.3 100.6 114.0 119.2 126.4 131.5 138.6 137.6 138.4 138.1 138.4 140.0 140.7 141.4 142.3 139.5 139.3 139.7 139.9 139.9 Business supplies Total Energy 6.99 112.3 114.7 113.1 120.3 133.8 137.9 144.6 153.5 162.5 160.6 162.8 164.4 165.2 165.9 165.7 166.7 168.8 168.4 170.4 171.0 170.8 42.28 11.69 105.5 104.7 101.2 98.4 103.9 103.3 99.7 99.8 101.5 101.3 102.7 103.2 101.5 101.3 102.3 102.6 100.5 100.5 101.0 102.0 101.5 100.0 105.3 107.7 96.7 102.8 114.2 114.3 113.8 118.2 125.2 124.5 126.4 126.5 126.5 127.5 128.3 128.3 128.1 127.4 127.3 128.1 127.8 127.3 well drilling and manufactured homes, not shown separately. [1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Nondurable manufactures Durable manufactures Transportation equipment Primary metals Iron and steel Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Period Total 1977 proportion.... 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 5.33 90.4 95.0 65.8 73.0 82.3 80.4 75.1 81.3 89.2 3.49 86.3 92.5 57.5 66.1 73.4 70.4 63.4 70.6 78.1 . 6.46 101.8 101.6 86.6 89.1 102.6 107.1 108.0 111.0 120.9 9.54 123.3 129.8 115.6 118.3 141.8 146.2 145.0 152.7 170.8 1988: 87.5 91 5 90.8 93.1 94.2 92.7 90.0 74.2 80.2 78.9 81.4 83.1 80.8 77.6 120.4 121.7 122.1 122.5 122.6 124.6 125.1 171.2 173.1 174.1 174.8 173.8 175.4 177.8 93.2 91.1 88.4 90.1 87.7 882 82.2 79.1 75.9 77.0 73.5 124.5 124.5 123.8 123.1 123.8 123.4 178.7 180.8 183.0 184.7 185.6 186.1 June. July Aue Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989: Jan Feb Mar r Apr r May r June p Source: Board of Go- s of the Federal Reserve System. 18 Electrical machinery 7.15 130.3 134.1 128.4 143.8 170.5 168.3 165.7 172.3 180.1 179.5 181.5 182.2 181.8 183.0 182.2 180.9 . 180.9 181.7 181.6 182.1 181.0 181.5 Total 9.13 96.9 95.1 87.6 99.2 112.2 122.8 127.5 129.2 132.1 132.8 131.9 131.8 132.7 134.8 135.2 136.8 136.7 136.4 134.8 136.4 135.1 133.4 Lumber and products Apparel products Printing and publishing cals and products Foods 5.25 71.1 71.6 66.8 85.8 104.4 111.9 111.5 111.8 117.2 2.30 92.9 90.1 82.8 100.2 109.1 114.3 124.1 130.3 137.3 2.79 97.3 96.1 87.3 95.3 102.7 100.4 103.1 107.4 109.1 4.54 115.1 118.6 120.2 129.8 146.5 151.4 160.9 172.1 184.2 8.05 106.4 112.6 103.8 114.0 121.6 126.4 132.0 140.2 151.9 7.96 111.4 113.7 114.9 120.4 126.9 130.5 134.4 137.8 142.7 119.1 116.6 117.5 118.5 121.7 122.9 125.5 136.4 136.6 133.8 133.5 137.5 139.4 143.0 109.3 109.4 108.9 109.9 109.5 110.1 108.8 182.3 184.9 186.7 188.0 188.1 188.5 188.0 141.3 143.3 143.3 143.2 144.0 145.7 145.8 124.9 123.4 120.4 122.0 119.1 116.1 139.9 132.8 133.4 134.8 134.4 110.2 110.2 109.9 110.6 193.0 194.6 198.5 200.0 199.6 200.9 150.5 153.4 154.8 155.3 156.7 157.5 158.1 159.0 158.5 159.2 159.3 158.5 Motor vehicles and parts 146.6 146.3 145.4 146.4 147.4 NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Construction contracts 3 Private Period Total new construction expenditures Residential Total New housing units Total > Commercial and industrial 2 Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1982=100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) Billions of dollars 1979 ' 1980 r 1981 r 253.0 252.8 201.3 194.3 261.3 204.7 1982 1983 ' 1984 r 1985 ' 1986 r 1987 r 1988 r 248.0 282.4 329.6 356.6 387.0 397.7 409.7 194.3 228.7 271.9 292.6 315.3 320.1 328.7 42.0 46.7 55.0 58.7 53.8 68.6 82.7 78.0 76.5 79.8 89.3 69.6 69.4 57.0 94.6 113.8 114.7 133.2 139.9 138.9 116.4 100.4 99.2 84.7 125.5 153.8 158.5 187.1 194.7 198.1 42.8 47.2 50.5 50.9 49.3 49.4 51.4 50.2 48.9 50.8 109 97" 100 51.7 58.5 56.5 53.7 53.8 57.7 64.1 71.7 77.6 80.9 100 124 136 150 158 164 161 Annual rates Annual rates 1988: May ' 408.0 408.7 July r Sept 410.7 408.1 411.5 411.1 415.4 r Oct Nov . . Dec 1989: 425.0 Jan Peb Mar 424.8 418.5 419.2 415.9 421.3 Apr May " June p 321.6 328.0 328.1 329.2 329.8 331.4 332.8 336.3 339.5 335.0 340.4 335.1 335.1 1,059 904 919 690 756 955 1,097 1,016 1,019 942 200.8 202.0 202.5 138.3 137.5 137.0 137.0 138.0 139.8 141.9 143.3 81.0 82.0 81.4 80.6 79.7 79.1 78.8 80.6 49.6 49.9 49.9 51.0 51.9 51.5 51.9 53.2 80.4 80.8 82.5 78.9 81.7 79.7 82.6 88.8 166 169 160 162 157 164 158 163 860 904 954 905 880 841 839 942 204.7 202.3 204.5 203.9 200.7 145.6 145.3 143.2 142.1 138.6 82.5 81.1 84.2 79.4 81.2 52.2 51.6 51.8 51.9 53.1 85.3 83.4 78.7 80.8 86.2 155 148 150 163 159 157 943 850 856 836 905 938 197.0 196.2 196.8 197.6 198.3 1 Includes 2 Includes 3 residential improvements, not shown separately. hotels and motels. F.W. Dodge series. NOTE.—New construction expenditures series revised beginning 1975. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New private homes New private housing units Period Units started, by type of structure Total 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1 unit 2-4 units 5 or more units Units authorized 1,745.1 1,292.2 1,084.2 1,062.2 1,703.0 1,749.5 1,741.8 1,805.4 1,620.5 1,488.1 1,194.1 852.2 705.4 662.6 1,067.6 1,084.2 1,072.4 1,119.4 1,146.4 1,081.3 1,463 1,478 1,459 1,463 1,532 1,567 1,577 1,088 1,067 1,076 1,039 1,136 1,138 1,141 62 50 59 62 63 68 65 313 361 324 362 333 361 371 1,485 1,425 1,466 1,432 1,526 1,508 1,518 1,678 1,465 1,409 1,343 1,309 1,400 1,199 1,029 981 1,029 977 975 66 62 50 62 40 53 413 374 378 252 292 372 1,486 1,403 1,230 1,334 1,347 1,308 122.0 109.5 91.1 80.0 113.5 121.4 93.4 84.0 65.3 58.8 576.1 1,551.8 1,190.6 985.5 1,000.5 1,605.2 1,681.8 1,733.3 542.0 408.7 348.0 l!534.8 1,455.6 429.0 330.5 287.7 319.6 522.0 544.0 Units completed Homes sold Homes for sale at end of period l 3 397 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 2 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.3 5.7 5.9 6.5 1.3 7.7 7.7 1,870.8 1,501.6 1,265.7 1,005.5 1,390.3 1,652.2 1,703.3 1,156.4 1,668.8 1,529.8 709 545 436 412 623 639 688 150 671 676 1,517 1,528 1,539 1,536 1,516 1,429 1,539 716 701 712 691 718 650 669 367 365 363 361 353 364 366 'i.'s 1,537 1,610 1,459 1,553 1,436 700 621 547 597 613 369 375 377 377 382 7.3 337 275 253 301 353 346 351 365 366 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1988: June.... July Sept Oct Nov. Dec 1989: Jan Feb Mar May r June * 1 Seasonally adjusted. 2 Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable with earlier data. 3 New series beginning March 1979. r 7.7 7.3 7.3 NOTE.—Beginning 1984, units authorized are-for 17,000 permit-issuing places; for 1978-88 data are for 16,000 places. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade In May, manufacturing and trade sales were about unchanged from their April level and inventories rose $5.5 billion. In June, according to advance data, retail sales fell 0.4 percent, following a decline of 0.1 percent in May. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 800 240 -" 700 __-r —^ - 220 ^— 200 MANl FACTURING AND 600 180 TRAC)E INVENTOR IES - - RETAIL INVENTORIES" 160 500 .— — — 400 140 — r'\" A/ ANUFACTUR IWfi /v 120 A gD TRADE Si UES - RETAIL SALES - 100 lllllllllll lllllllllll 300 - RATIO* 1.80 _ - Minium INVENTORY-SALES RATIO 1.60 1.40 200 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE 1.20 lllllllllll lllllllllll 1985 1986 1.00 I i i i i i f | i i n |llll{ll||l lll!l|lll« lllllllllll 1987 1988 1989 1986 1985 1987 "SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Manufacturing and trade 1 Inventories 3 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Wholesale Inventory-sales ratio 4 Be tail Inventories 3 Sales 2 Period Sales 2 1988 Sales 2 Inventories 3 Total Durable goods stores Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Manufacturing and trade * 61,093 64,754 68,985 72,434 74,802 79,077 83,384 134,468 147,377 167,159 180,825 185,224 206,981 221,242 61,469 68,984 79,257 88,608 90,477 106,271 114,994 72,999 78,393 87,902 92,217 94,747 100,710 106,248 1.67 1.56 1.53 1.55 1.55 1.51 1.50 1.49 1.44 1.49 1.53 1.56 1.56 1.57 82,118 82,764 83,378 84,119 84,324 85,117 85,599 85,035 208,346 210,824 211,534 215,396 219,297 216,724 218,093 221,242 105,757 107,064 107,443 110,146 114,303 111,689 112,904 114,994 102,589 103,760 104,091 105,250 104,994 105,035 105,189 106,248 1.50 1.49 1.50 1.50 1.51 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.55 1.56 1.56 1.58 1.62 1.57 1.56 1.59 86,225 86,357 86,630 87,512 r 87,646 87,830 222,584 224,185 224,693 226,656 228,778 115,704 116,169 115,993 117,093 117,735 106,880 108,016 108,700 109,563 111,043 1.48 1.50 1.51 1.49 1.50 1.59 1.61 1.61 1.60 1.62 Nondurable goods stores Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 574,491 590,358 644,306 655,066 653,853 700,761 753,718 96,290 100,244 113,195 114,315 115,677 123,581 132,361 128,196 130,334 142,380 146,745 152,447 162,648 178,313 478,467 486,359 486,193 492,491 492,478 498,846 501,400 506,186 718,506 724,966 729,903 737,562 744,054 743,544 746,756 753,718 128,687 132,317 133,833 134,726 135,332 138,087 137,239 136,170 170,086 172,179 174,581 176,368 176,972 177,408 177,060 178,313 511,881 507,328 507,555 517,745 517,461 759,803 763,051 765,504 771,340 776,843 140,356 139,547 139,991 142,290 143,047 179,761 140,040 179,810 139,428 179,681 139,516 181,226 141.413 182,654 ' 141, 295 140,777 1987 1988 348,747 368,813 407,869 418,151 423,700 449,536 485,756 1988: Mayr July Sept Oct Dec 1989: Jan Feb. Mar Apr r May" June p r 'See page 21 for manufacturing. Monthly average for year and total for month. End of period. 2 3 20 28,013 32,574 37,819 41,387 44,861 47,707 52,379 89,107 97,328 106,805 113,821 119,663 126,785 135,763 134,003 !35,161 135,662 136,050 135,751 137,842 139,529 139,189 r r 51,885 52,397 52,284 51,931 51,427 52,725 53,930 54,154 53,815 53,071 52,886 53,901 r 53,649 52,947 4 r Annual data are averages of monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In May, manufacturers' shipments and new orders fell, while inventories and unfilled orders rose. In June, according to advance data, durable goods shipments fell and new orders rose. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 280 240 480 440 400 360 SHIPMENT'; 200 •—^•" ^—1 •— r * 1 TOTAL 160 280 DURABLE GOODS — ^ -'- __„ .. •" . • " -i TOTAL i ^ L'— • -- —"* —-_ - . — -— £ —— -*" 200 \ mJRABLE GOC n<=, 160 — •-—' \ 80 60 ... 1 120 INVENTORIES 120 NONDURABLE G<3ODS "~\~~~ Iiuiiiiiii Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll iiuiiiiiii BILLIC3NS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) r^^ 11r^^ RATIC * TOTAL 160 2.20 DUf ABLE GOOD>5 120 A %^./ •-"_ --- v • 80 imilmii iimlnm Illllllllll Illllllllll III||I|I1II "S.—l^V — ~^ <" \ •~' 80 60 NEW ORDERS 240 9OO *—^- \ NO NDURABLE <3OODS .-•-- INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO 2.00 1.80 "~^1 1.60 vIDURABLE C - r^ 1.40 60 Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll iiuiiiiiii Illllllllll 1986 1988 1989 1985 1987 1.20 \ 1 I \ 1 1 1 1 1 11 1985 1986 ii 1 1 tl 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ii i iiuiiiiiii 1987 1989 1988 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturers' shipments 1 Manufacturers' inventories Manufacturers' new orders l 2 Durable goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Durable goods Total Nondurable goods Total Capital goods industries, nondefense Nondurable goods Manufacturers' unfilled orders 2 78,338 87,600 98,581 99,843 100,166 107,770 119,634 115,369 125,442 116,112 122,806 119,321 122,791 123,035 132,149 128,479 124,107 125,377 129,372 r 123,677 124,102 21,661 22,098 26,243 27,067 26,551 29,707 35,028 31,522 35,458 36,213 38,808 34,858 34,623 35,825 39,432 40,352 37,189 38,137 40,389 * 37,294 37,491 83,935 86,522 91,209 91,075 88,497 94,197 101,993 101,029 102,648 103,765 104,203 103,348 104,304 105,118 106,737 107,596 107,199 107,634 110,535 110,000 314,270 349,419 372,586 383,181 387,065 421,243 468,860 434,148 443,357 446,536 451,830 453,103 457,281 460,802 468,860 473,450 476,403 481,366 487,231 487,789 Total Manufacturers' inventory — shipments ratio 3 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988: May July.... 1989: 1 2 Sept... Oct Nov. Dec Jan Feb Mar. . Apr r May ". June p 163,350 171,242 187,869 190,016 188,360 199,170 217,632 215,777 218,881 216,698 221,715 221,395 222,917 224,632 230,827 231,485 228,353 228,048 234,042 233,119 79,352 84,956 96,623 99,019 99,989 105,291 115,684 114,751 116,522 113,122 117,866 118,030 118,439 119,874 124,175 123,578 120,924 120,432 123,331 r 122,943 121,587 83,998 86,286 91,246 90,996 88,371 93,879 101,948 101,026 102,359 103,576 103,849 103,365 104,478 104,758 106,652 107,907 107,429 107,616 110,711 110,176 311,827 312,647 334,767 327,496 316,182 331,132 354,163 340,074 341,963 343,788 345,798 347,785 349,412 351,603 354,163 357,458 359,056 361,130 363,458 365,411 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales End of period. 200,825 200,406 218,771 214,066 208,313 216,598 233,666 222,948 224,000 225,467 226,600 228,214 229,735 231,766 233,666 236,810 238,165 239,330 240,486 241,993 111,002 112,241 115,996 113,430 107,869 114,534 120,497 117,126 117,963 118,321 119,198 119,571 119,677 119,837 120,497 120,648 120,891 121,800 122,972 123,418 3 162,273 174,122 189,791 190,918 188,663 201,966 221,627 216,398 228,090 219,877 227,009 222,669 227,095 228,153 238,886 236,075 231,306 233,011 239,907 233,677 Annual data are averages of monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1.95 1.80 1.74 1.74 1.70 1.62 1.58 1.58 1.56 1.59 1.56 1.57 1.57 1.57 1.53 1.54 1.57 1.58 1.55 1.57 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In June, the producer price index for all finished goods fell 0.1 percent. Prices of finished consumer foods fell 0.8 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods fell 0.1 percent. Capital equipment prices rose 0.7 percent. INDEX, 1982 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1982= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 120 120 110 100 80 1981 1988 1982 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [1982 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Intermediate materials Finished goods Finished goods excluding consumer foods Period Total finished goods Consumer foods Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 .. 1988' June July Sept 1989: Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb r Mar May June 1 88.0 96.1 100.0 101.6 103.7 104.7 103.2 105.4 108.0 92.4 97.8 100.0 101.0 105.4 104.6 107.3 109.5 112.6 86.7 95.6 100.0 101.8 103.2 104.6 101.9 104.0 106.5 107.6 108.2 108.5 109.1 109.2 109.5 109.9 112.1 112.9 113.6 114.6 114.7 115.1 115.2 106.1 106.6 106.9 107.3 107.4 107.7 108.2 111.1 112.1 112.6 113.1 114.1 114.0 116.7 117.8 118.9 118.2 119.2 118.2 109.3 110.1 110.6 111.4 112.4 112.6 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 22 Nondurable Capital equipment 85.1 95.8 100.0 100.5 101.1 101.7 93.3 94.9 97.3 96.8 97.6 97.6 97.6 97.8 98.3 98.9 100.4 101.6 102.2 104.5 105.8 105.6 85.8 94.6 100.0 102.8 105.2 107.5 109.7 111.7 114.3 114.0 114.3 114.7 115.7 115.6 115.8 116.2 116.9 117.4 117.5 117.4 117.9 118.7 Consumer goods Total 87.1 96.1 100.0 101.2 102.2 103.3 98.5 100.7 103.1 102.7 103.3 103.5 103.7 103.8 104.1 104.7 106.0 107.1 107.6 109.0 110.2 110.1 Durable 91.0 96.4 100.0 102.8 104.5 106.5 108.9 111.5 113.8 113.4 113.9 114.5 115.1 115.0 115.0 115.4 116.3 116.9 117.2 116.3 117.2 117.4 Total finished consumer goods Total Foods and feeds ' Other Crude materials Total Foodstuffs and Other stuffs 88.6 96.6 100.0 101.3 103.3 103.8 101.4 103.6 106.2 90.3 98.6 100.0 100.6 103.1 102.7 99.1 101.5 107.1 105.5 104.6 100.0 103.6 105.7 97.3 96.2 99.2 109.5 89.4 98.2 100.0 100.5 103.0 103.0 99.3 101.7 106.9 95.3 103.0 100.0 101.3 103.5 95.8 87.7 93.7 96.0 104.6 103.9 100.0 101.8 104.7 94.8 93.2 96.2 106.1 84.6 101.8 100.0 100.7 102.2 96.9 81.6 87.9 85.5 105.8 106.5 106.8 107.3 107.4 107.8 108.2 107.1 107.9 108.2 108.6 108.6 109.0 109.5 110.7 115.9 114.9 115.3 115.1 113.2 112.3 107.0 107.4 107.8 108.2 108.3 108.8 109.4 96.9 96.6 97.2 97.1 96.6 94.8 97.8 106.1 108.3 110.9 113.1 113.4 108.8 110.8 86.9 85.2 84.4 83.1 82.0 82.1 85.6 109.5 110.6 111.3 112.0 113.2 112.8 110.8 111.3 112.0 112.5 112.6 112.4 115.2 114.8 116.7 115.2 113.6 111.8 110.5 111.1 111.8 112.3 112.6 112.4 101.8 101.5 103.6 104.2 105.1 103.0 113.3 111.7 115.1 111.9 112.3 109.4 90.2 90.7 91.8 94.8 96.0 94.5 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In June, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted. The index was 5.2 percent above its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1982-84= 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1982-84= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 130 130 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 120 120 . CONSUMER PRICES—ALL ITEMS . 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 1983 1982 Ulllllllll 1988 Ulllllllll Illllllllil 1981 1984 1987 1986 1985 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR LLLU 60 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1982-84—100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] All items 1 Transportation Housing Medical care Energy2 All items less food, shelter, and energy 3.1 97.4 108.5 102.8 99.4 97.9 98.7 77.1 80.2 80.9 6.0 74.9 82.9 92.5 100.6 106.8 113.5 122.0 130.1 138.6 7.3 86.0 97.7 99.2 99.9 100.9 101.6 88.2 88.6 89.3 48.7 80.6 88.3 95.1 100.0 105.0 109.0 112.7 117.0 121.9 Shelter Period Rel. imp. 3.... 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 . . .. 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988: June July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989: Feb Mar Apr May June Not seasonally adjusted (NSA) Seasonally adjusted 100.0 82 4 90.9 965 99.6 103 9 107.6 1096 113.6 1183 Food Total ' Total Renters' costs (Dec. 1982 = 100) Homeowners' costs (Dec. 1982 = 100) 7.9 19.7 Maintenance and repairs (NSA) 16.2 86.8 93.6 97.4 99.4 103.2 105.6 109.0 113.5 118.2 42.3 81.1 90.4 96.9 99.5 103.6 107.7 110.9 114.2 118.5 27.8 81.0 90.5 96.9 99.1 104.0 109.8 115.8 121.3 127.1 103.0 108.6 115.4 121.9 128.1 133.6 102.5 107.3 113.1 119.4 124.8 131.1 0.2 82.4 90.7 96.4 99.9 103.7 106.5 107.9 111.8 114.7 Fuel and other utilities Apparel and upkeep Total ' New cars Motor fuel 7.6 75.4 86.4 94.9 100.2 104.8 106.5 104.1 103.0 104.4 6.4 90.9 95.3 97.8 100.2 102.1 105.0 105.9 110.6 115.4 17.2 83.1 93.2 97.0 99.3 103.7 106.4 102.3 105.4 108.7 4.3 88.4 93.7 97.4 99.9 102.8 106.1 110.6 114.6 116.9 118.0 118.5 119.0 119.8 120.2 120.3 120.5 118.1 118.6 119.0 119.5 120.0 120.3 120.7 117.8 118.9 119.5 120.3 120.6 120.8 121.2 118.2 118.5 118.9 119.3 119.6 120.1 120.6 126.7 127.0 127.6 128.1 128.3 128.9 129.4 133.0 133.4 133.8 133.8 134.1 134.2 134.9 130.8 131.2 131.9 132.5 132.7 133.5 133.9 114.7 114.5 115.0 115.3 115.0 115.4 115.8 103.9 104.0 104.0 104.4 105.1 105.5 106.3 115.9 115.7 113.9 116.0 117.4 117.4 117.7 108.4 108.7 109.6 109.7 110.1 110.4 110.4 116.6 116.7 117.0 117.7 117.8 117.9 118.1 80.9 81.3 82.8 82.0 81.3 81.1 79.7 138.4 139.4 140.0 140.7 141.6 142.2 142.9 88.7 88.9 89.5 89.3 89.2 89.5 89.2 121.8 122.2 122.4 123.0 123.8 124.2 124.6 121.1 121.6 122.3 123.1 123.8 124.1 121.4 121.9 122.5 123.3 124.0 124.2 122.1 122.6 123.6 124.2 125.0 125.3 120.9 121.3 121.7 121.8 122.3 122.6 129.7 130.3 131.1 131.2 131.8 132.3 135.2 136.4 138.2 137.3 137.3 138.1 134.2 134.7 135.1 135.6 136.5 136.9 116.1 117.1 117.1 117.3 117.4 118.3 106.9 106.7 106.9 107.4 107.6 107.1 117.7 117.5 119.1 119.4 120.4 119.1 111.2 111.9 112.6 115.0 116.1 115.9 118.9 119.3 119.7 119.8 119.6 119.3 80.5 81.8 83.6 93.0 96.6 95.4 144.0 145.2 145.9 146.6 147.6 148.7 89.9 90.4 91.4 96.1 97.6 96.6 125.4 125.8 126.3 126.6 127.2 127.4 1 Includes items not shown separately. Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc. also included through 1982. 3 Relative importance, December 1988. 2 NOTE.—Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods. Data beginning 1987 and 1988 calculated on a revised basis. Source: Department of Labor. Bureau of Labor Statistics. «. — CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Period Change from preceding period Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate Consumer goods Consumer goods Consumer goods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Total finished goods Excluding foods Foods Capital equipment Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA 11.8 7.1 3.6 .6 1.7 1.8 -2.3 2.2 4.0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 11.4 9.2 3.9 2.0 1.8 2.7 2.1 1.3 3.6 14.1 8.6 4.2 -.9 .8 2.1 -6.6 4.1 3.1 7.5 1.5 2.0 2.3 3.5 .6 2.8 2 5.7 13.4 9.2 4.1 1.6 2.1 1.0 -1.4 2.1 2.5 .-- Change, month to month 1988: June July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989: , Jan Peb ' Mar r. 2.9 9.2 6.5 5.4 2.1 2.0 2.4 2.4 4.0 2.0 2.3 3.9 3.2 3.6 6.1 4.6 3.9 1.7 3.6 3.4 4.0 4.4 4.0 3.9 4.3 6.2 4.6 6.7 7.4 7.6 7.1 5.6 2.4 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.2 2.3 3.9 3.2 2.7 2.8 4.5 3.9 3.7 3.9 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.3 4.0 7.2 9.7 13.5 5.2 4.8 23 8.8 12.0 11.5 11.8 12.1 9.6 4.6 5.6 4.6 1.7 1.7 4.1 5.4 6.7 6.5 7.3 8.6 7.6 6.8 7.5 7.6 6.2 7.3 5.3 5.3 7.1 7.7 10.3 12.1 10.6 4.6 4.8 3.1 3.1 3.7 4.3 4.5 5.3 5.6 5.6 6.2 5.9 0.2 .6 .3 .6 .1 .3 .4 0.8 .7 .6 .9 .1 .3 .1 -0.2 .6 .2 .2 .1 .3 .6 0.3 .3 .3 .9 -.1 .2 .3 3.0 4.2 4.2 5.7 3.7 3.7 3.0 5.5 8.6 8.9 1.1 .9 .4 .4 .9 — .1 1.3 .9 .9 -.6 .8 -.8 1.2 1.0 .5 1.3 1.1 i .6 .4 .1 — .] .4 -7 7.1 9.8 10.2 7.4 7.3 5.1 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted hy NSA] Housing Transportation Shelter Period All items * Food Total ' Total ' Homeowners' costs Renters' costs Fuel and other utilities Apparel and upkeep New cars Total ' Motor fuel Addendum: All items, percent change (annual rate) All Medical care Energy2 items less food, shelter, and energy From previous quarter 3 From 3 months From 6 months earlier From year earlier NSA Change, December to December, NSA 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 12.5 8.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 1.1 4.4 4.4 10.2 4.3 3.1 2.7 3.8 2.6 3.8 3.5 5.2 13.7 10.2 36 15.0 9.9 24 3.5 4.3 4.3 1.7 3.7 4.0 4.7 5.2 6.0 4.6 4.8 4.5 5.1 5.9 6.3 5.0 3.9 3.9 4.5 5.1 5.9 4.6 5.3 4.7 0.3 .4 .3 .4 .4 .3 .3 0.6 .9 .5 .7 .2 .2 .3 0.3 .3 .3 .3 .3 .4 .4 0.4 .2 .5 .4 2 .5 .4 0.3 .3 .3 0 .2 .1 .5 0.4 .3 .5 .5 .2 .6 .3 -0.1 .1 0 .4 .7 .4 .8 -0.3 -.2 -1.6 1.8 1.2 0 .3 0.2 .3 .8 .1 .4 .3 0 .6 .4 .5 .7 .6 .2 .7 .4 .8 .5 .6 .2 .2 .3 .3 .1 .4 .2 .2 .5 .6 .1 .5 .4 .2 .9 1.3 .2 .4 .3 .4 .7 .3 .6 -.2 .2 .5 .2 -.5 0 -.2 1.4 .3 .8 -1.1 .7 .6 .6 2.1 1.0 13.8 14.4 9.7 1.8 4.2 1.8 -5.6 1.6 2.9 6.8 3.5 1.6 2.9 2.0 2.8 .9 4.8 4.7 14.6 10.9 1.8 3.9 3.1 2.6 -5.9 6.1 3.0 7.4 18.8 9.4 6.8 1.5 -6.5 3.4 -1.7 2.5 -2.4 3.4 3.1 5.9 -30.7 18.7 1.8 2.1 -2.1 9.9 12.5 11.0 6.4 6.1 6.8 7.7 5.8 6.9 18.0 11.9 1.3 -.5 _2 1.8 -19.7 8.2 .5 5.0 4.3 3.7 3.3 3.8 4.7 0.1 .1 .3 .6 .1 .1 .2 -0.6 .5 1.8 -1.0 Q -.2 -1.7 0.6 .7 .4 .5 .6 .4 .5 -0.2 .2 .7 -.2 -.1 .3 3 0.2 .3 .2 .5 .7 .3 .3 .7 .3 .3 .1 -.2 -.3 1.0 1.6 2.2 11.2 3.9 -1.2 .8 .8 .5 .5 .7 .7 .8 .6 1.1 5' 1.6 — 1.0 .6 .3 .4 2 .5 .2 13 5 10.3 6.2 3.2 4.3 3.6 1.9 3.6 4.1 9.8 9.4 6.1 Change, month to month 1988: June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989: Jan Peb Mar Apr May June 1 2 Y 0 .6 Includes items not shown separately. Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc., also included through 1982. 24 9 3 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.7 5.4 6.1 6.4 7.1 5.7 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.6 6.2 5.9 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.2 4.9 4.9 4.5 4.5 4.4 5.4 6.4 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 4.8 4.8 4.4 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.5 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers in July were 0.7 percent below their June level. Prices paid by farmers in July were 0.6 percent above their April level. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE) 180 180 160 160 PRICES PAID 140 140 120 120 PRICES RECEIVED 100 100 80 80 III 60 I l l l l l l l l l l l 120 _ _ 100 :r III 60 RATION 140 80 60 RATIO^ 140 120 ~~~\_^ mill 1981 100 KAIIO - _->_ "~"-1, —-—^-——11 \^ - 80 - - II 1 1 1 1 II 1 1 1 IIIIlllllll IIIIlllllll IIIIlllllll 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1 1987 IIIIlllllll IIIIlllllll 1988 1989 60 j/RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1977 = 100; not seasonally adjusted] Prices paid by farmers Prices received by farmers Period 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988- July Aue Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989: Jan Peb Mar Mav July All farm products Livestock and products Crops 139 133 135 142 128 123 126 138 142 144 144 143 144 145 134 121 128 138 120 107 106 126 137 136 135 133 136 136 143 145 141 146 136 138 146 150 147 152 153 152 151 154 149 148 149 147 149 147 146 140 138 136 140 141 138 134 158 158 161 154 156 157 156- 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. See also footnote 3. 3 Beginning March 1986, prices paid by farmers are available only for first month in quarter, and for each month the received/paid ratio is based on latest data available. All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates 1 Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates 150 159 161 164 162 159 161 170 172 (3) (3) 173 (3) (3) 175 (3) (3) 177 (3) (3) 178 151 158 159 161 156 150 151 160 162 (3) (3) 163 (3) (3) 166 (3) (3) 167 (3) (3) 167 Production items 148 153 152 155 151 144 147 157 159 (3) (3) 162 (3) (3) 163 (3) (3) 165 (3) (3) 165 Ratio 2 92 84 84 87 79 77 79 81 83 84 84 83 83 84 85 85 85 83 84 r 83 82 NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes ave been converted to a 1977 — 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES Ml fell again in June; the broader aggregates rose in June after falling in May. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 4,000 3,600 4,000 ,3,600 3,200 3,200 2,800 2,800 2)400 2,400 M2 2,000 2,000 1,600 ; 1,600 1,200 1,200 800 1800 600 400 400 Illllllllll I l l l l l l l l l l Illllllllll 1981 Illllllllll Illllllllll 1986 1983 1987 1988 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS • AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period 19801981: 1982: 19831984: 1985: 1986: 19871988- Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 1988- June July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989- Jan r Feb' Mar ' May r. June " Ml M2 M3 L Debt Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCDs) Ml plus overnight RPs and Eurodollars, MMIvrF balances (general purpose and broker/dealer), MMDAs, and savings and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, term KPs, term Eurodollars, and institution-only MMMF balances M3 plus other liquid assets Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors (monthly average) 1 412.2 439.1 476.4 522.1 551.9 620.5 725.9 752.3 790.3 1,633.3 1,795.9 1,954.5 2,186.0 2,367.2 2,567.4 2,811.2 2,909.9 3,069.4 1,991.1 1,236.9 2,443.8 2,694.3 2,982.3 3,201.7 3,494.9 3,677.6 '3,914.2 2,327.8 2,599.4 2,853.5 3,155.5 3,523.4 3,830.6 '4,137.1 * 4,340.2 '4,674.9 3,882.5 4,258.0 4,642.0 5,176.0 5,923.5 6,733.3 7,596.9 8,310.7 9,052.1 6.8 6.5 8.5 9.6 5.7 12.4 17.0 3.6 5.1 8.9 10.0 8.8 11.8 8.3 8.5 9.5 3.5 5.5 10.2 12.3 9.2 10.3 10.7 7.4 9.2 5.2 6.4 9.6 9.7 9.0 11.5 14.4 13.7 12.8 9.4 8.9 776.5 782.5 782.4 783.7 785.4 786.6 790.3 3,013.1 3,023.9 3,029.7 3,035.0 3,042.2 3,059.3 3,069.4 r r 4,521.1 '4,565.1 ' 4,583.6 '4,591.7 '4,612.5 r 4,638.4 '4,674.9 8,659.1 8,718.8 8,784.3 8,850.0 8,912.4 8,988.6 9,052.1 6.5 6.5 6.0 5.3 3.7 4.1 3.6 7.2 6.5 5.4 4.5 3.5 4.0 3.8 '7.7 7.5 '6.4 5.6 5.2 5.4 5.2 8.6 8.9 9.0 9.0 8.9 9.3 9.3 786.3 787.4 786.3 783.2 773.4 770.7 3,065.7 3,069.2 3,078.7 3,081.3 3,072.9 3,090.0 4,678.3 4,690.6 4,724.1 4,740.2 4,739.4 9,107.2 9,172.3 9,229.4 9,283.0 9,339.5 1.0 1.3 .7 -.6 3.3 -4.9 2.8 2.6 2.9 2.6 .9 1.3 4.2 4.0 4.7 4.2 3.0 3.1 9.1 9.0 8.8 8.5 8.0 1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earli- 26 3,816.4 ' 3,839.1 '3,851.1 ' 3,860.5 r 3,877.2 r 3,897.2 r 3,914.2 3,918.7 3,928.1 3,950.1 3,958.1 3,954.4 3,975.1 Percent change from year or 6 months earlier 2 Ml r at an annual rate. NOTE.—See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. M2 M3 Debt COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Period Currency Demand deposits Other checkable deposits (OCDs) Overnight repurchase agreements (RPs), net, plus overnight Eurodollars NSA Money market mutual fund balances General purpose and broker/ dealer NSA Institution only Money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) NSA Small denomination time deposits 1 Savings deposits Large denomination time deposits ' NSA Term repurchase agreements (RPs) Term Eurodollars (net) NSA NSA 50.3 67.5 81.7 91.5 82.9 76.1 84.9 90.8 105.8 Savings bonds Shortterm Treasury securities Bankers' acceptances Commercial paper 72.3 67.8 68.0 71.1 14.2 79.4 91.7 100.4 109.1 133.5 149.4 183.6 211.9 260.7 300.1 282.3 257.5 r 275.2 32.1 40.0 44.5 45.0 45.4 42.0 37.2 44.7 40.6 98.8 105.3 113.6 133.2 160.1 207.4 231.0 260.3 335.8 1980- Dec 1981: Dec 1982- Dec 1983- Dec 1984- Dec 1985: Dec 1986- Dec 1987- Dec .. 1988- Dec 115.2 122.5 132.6 146.3 156.1 167.8 180.5 196.4 211.8 261.5 231.5 234.2 238.7 244.2 267.3 303.2 288.3 288.6 31.3 80.8 105.3 132.2 146.4 179.5 235.8 260.4 282.3 28.3 35.9 38.8 53.8 56.3 70.2 78.3 78.3 78.3 61.6 150.6 185.2 138.2 167.5 176.5 208.0 221.1 239.4 15.2 38.0 51.1 43.2 62.7 64.5 84.4 89.6 87.6 0.0 .0 43.2 379.2 416.9 513.5 572.5 526.3 502.7 400.2 344.0 356.9 305.6 285.4 301.6 371.0 416.4 431.3 728.6 823.2 851.0 784.0 886.3 882.6 853.9 914.1 1,025.2 260.1 302.5 326.8 327.4 417.2 436.6 439.0 487.4 537.7 34.0 36.0 34.5 51.8 61.9 65.6 84.0 109.1 123.1 1988: June July.... 204.7 206.4 207.0 208.6 209.7 210.5 211.8 289.8 290.4 289.9 288.8 288.9 287.7 288.6 274.7 278.5 278.3 279.0 279.4 281.0 282.3 80.9 77.6 79.9 77.3 76.0 75.6 78.3 228.9 229.6 230.8 231.0 231.3 237.4 239.4 86.3 84.8 84.0 83.7 84.6 87.4 87.6 523.2 522.0 517.7 511.4 507.5 506.7 502.7 427.6 429.7 430.9 430.5 429.2 431.8 431.3 975.7 981.0 988.3 998.7 1,009.7 1,017.8 1,025.2 507.8 514.0 519.4 526.7 532.0 534.4 537.7 124.3 r93.9 125.6 r 97.1 123.8 ' 102.8 122.3 102.7 124.7 100.2 127.5 101.6 123.1 r 105.8 106.0 106.8 107.4 107.9 108.4 108.7 109.1 r 257.6 268.7 272.6 272.8 273.3 268.4 r 275.2 40.7 40.7 41.2 41.7 41.3 40.5 40.6 300.4 309.8 311.3 308.8 S12.S 323.7 335.8 213.4 214.3 215.6 215.9 216.4 217.4 284.0 284.8 284.3 281.5 278.3 275.1 281.3 280.9 279.1 278.5 271.5 271.0 81.6 78.8 77.2 73.9 72.6 74.7 241.7 247.2 256.0 260.2 259.9 266.2 89.3 89.6 87.6 87.7 91.6 95.1 495.2 485.3 480.3 471.3 457.0 456.9 427.8 424.6 420.8 412.9 404.8 402.3 1,035.7 1,048.3 1,061.0 1,083.2 1,106.1 1,120.0 544.4 551.6 558.8 567.7 572.0 573.2 124.1 ' 100.6 127.1 r 100.3 129.4 r 106.0 127.0 r101.8 127.6 101.4 127.9 100.5 109.7 r 274.5 110.6 r267.8 111.5 '272.1 112.3 ' 274.3 112.9 274.0 40.6 39.9 41.2 41.4 40.6 334.9 '344.2 349.2 354.2 357.4 Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989- Jan Feb Mar .. May ' Tune p 1 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. NOTE.—Travelers checks of nonbank issuers are a component of money stock but are not shown here. Source; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE [Averages of daily figures; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal Reserve (NSA) Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements Reserves of depository institutions Period Total 1980198119821983: 19841985: 198619871988: Dec Dec Dec . Dec Dec .... Dec Dec Dec ... Dec 1988- June July Sept Oct Nov. Dec 1989 Jan Feb Mar,. May June " Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Nonborrowed Nonborrowed plus extended credit Required Monetary base Total Seasonal Extended credit 33,401 35,315 37,388 39,184 42,321 48,493 58,140 58,693 60,706 31,711 34,679 36,754 38,410 39,134 47,175 57,313 57,916 58,990 31,714 34,827 36,940 38,412 41,739 47,674 57,616 58,399 60,234 32,887 34,996 36,888 38,623 41,468 47,436 56,771 57,665 59,666 152,525 161,043 173,011 188,303 201,889 219,510 241,448 257,991 275,501 1,690 636 634 774 3,186 1,318 827 777 1,716 116 54 33 96 113 56 38 93 130 3 148 186 2 2,604 499 303 483 1,244 60,576 61,058 60,903 60,824 60,862 60,853 60,706 57,493 57,618 57,663 57,985 58,562 57,991 58,990 60,047 60,157 60,316 60,043 60,343 60,314 60,234 59,688 60,051 59,950 59,852 59,800 59,733 59,666 268,205 270,308 270,979 272,420 273,659 274,380 275,501 3,083 3,440 3,241 2,839 2,299 2,861 1,716 311 376 423 421 332 186 130 2,554 2,538 2,653 2,059 1,781 2,322 1,244 60,370 60,260 59,854 59,463 58,740 58,350 58,708 58,773 58,041 57,174 57,019 56,860 59,754 59,822 59,376 58,880 58,217 57,777 59,226 59,106 58,896 58,686 57,709 57,445 276,784 2771553 278,615 278,674 278,329 279,056 1,662 1,487 1,813 2,289 1,720 1,490 76 97 139 213 345 431 1,046 1,050 1,334 1,707 1,197 917 BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES Total commercial bank loans and leases rose 0.6 percent in June; commercial and industrial loans fell 0.2 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,800 2,400 2,800 .ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS _ 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 LOANS AND LEASES 800 800 400 400 U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 200 200 T 160 160 OTHER SECURITIES • Illllllllll 120 1981 1982 120 1985 1984 1983 1986 1987 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 1989 1988 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1] All commercial hanks Loans and leases Period Total loans and securities 2 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1988: Dec 1,307.7 Dec 1,401.5 Dec 1,553.6 r Dec 1,723.7 r Dec 1,911.4 r Dec 2,094.5 r Dec 2,239.6 r Dec .... 2,417.2 July r ... 2,362.7 Aug r.... 2,377.6 Sept 2,381.5 Oct r 2,401.4 r Nov .... 2,410.2 Dec r.... 2,417.2 1989: Jan r .... 2,422.8 Feb r .... 2,451.9 Mar T.... 2,464.9 Apr r .... 2,470.9 May r.... 2,486.3 June''.. 2,496.8 U.S. Government securities 179.3 201.7 259.2 260.2 270.7 r 309.6 335.5 361.4 349.6 350.9 353.1 355.6 358.8 361.4 360.4 361.8 368.8 370.7 373.5 373.8 Other securities Total 2 160.9 967.5 165.7 1,034.1 170.6 1,123.9 142.6 r l,321.0 r 181.4 r 1,459.3 * 1 96.5 r 1,588.4 r 195.3 r 1,708. 8 194.0 1,861.9 196.8 196.5 195.2 196.8 195.9 194.0 189.6 190.4 189.7 187.2 186.4 185.7 1,816.3 1,830.1 1,833.2 1,848.9 1,855.6 1,861.9 1,872.9 1,899.7 1,906.5 1,913.1 1,926.5 1,937.3 Commercial and industrial Real estate Individual 182.5 355.4 284.1 188.2 392.6 299.8 212.9 330.8 414.1 472.9 376.3 253.8 499.7 r 425.8 ' 294.8 r 536.2 r494.0 r,315.S> r 562.7 ' 589.0 r 329.54 672.0 355.5 601.9 635.8 345.6 595.0 597.4 643.0 347.7 598.1 650.3 350.2 601.6 659.8 351.6 601.8 665.3 353.0 601.9 672.0 355.5 606.6 678.9 357.9 619.0 685.6 358.9 691.8 360.6 617.8 620.6 699.5 362.9 626.3 705.5 365.4 624.9 712.0 366.0 2 Security 21.5 25.4 28.1 34.3 42.7 40.1 34.4 38.5 38.9 39.6 36.5 38.5 38.2 38.5 37.7 44.7 43.6 40.0 38.0 41.1 Nonbank financial institutions 29.9 31.3 30.5 31.4 32.5 35.0 31.9 30.0 31.1 31.1 30.7 30.4 30.2 30.0 30.3 30.6 29.7 29.2 29.0 30.5 Agricultural 33.1 36.2 39.2 40.1 36.1 31.6 29.4 30.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.8 30.3 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.4 30.3 30.3 State and political subdivisions 0.0 .0 3.3 46.0 56.7 58.4 52.5 46.8 48.8 48.2 48.0 48.5 47.7 46.8 44.4 44.5 44.6 44.6 44.6 44.5 Foreign banks 18.1 14.8 13.4 11.1 9.7 9.6 7.5 7.6 8.1 8.0 7.2 7.6 8.1 7.6 7.8 8.5 8.1 8.3 9.3 9.2 Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 28 Foreign official institutions Lease financing receivables Other 7.2 5.9 9.4 7.9 6.0 12.7 13.3 13.7 16.0 r !9.0 22.3 r 24.5 29.2 28.0 28.1 28.5 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.8 30.0 29.9 23.1 26.6 31.8 31.2 r 36.3 39.4 42.1 44.9 50.3 52.2 49.1 47.5 47.1 44.9 44.4 42.8 45.3 43.0 43.2 44.0 5.9 5.3 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Uses Sources External Period Total Internal 1 Securities and mortgages Total Total 1979. 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1988- I n m IV 1989- I" Capital expenditures 3 Credit market funds Loans and short-term paper Total Other 2 Increase in financial assets Discrepancy (sources less uses) 326.0 324.8 375.8 298.5 420.3 492.6 459.2 519.8 482.9 467.5 197.6 200.1 239.5 242.3 285.7 336.3 352.3 357.5 352.8 366.8 128.4 124.7 136.4 56.2 134.6 156.3 106.9 162.3 130.1 100.7 60.1 70.7 90.7 49.8 77.9 95.8 50.9 121.3 68.5 63.8 9.0 34.5 29.4 10.3 52.6 -5.1 5.0 59.0 38.2 -18.2 51.1 36.2 61.2 39.5 25.3 100.9 46.0 62.3 30.3 82.0 68.2 54.0 45.7 6.4 56.8 60.5 55.9 41.0 61.6 37.0 368.1 342.1 383.6 303.5 385.8 502.7 435.3 456.7 437.3 448.3 238.3 243.7 286.5 256.5 270.7 370.6 342.3 333.9 361.7 395.7 129.8 98.4 97.0 47.0 115.1 132.1 93.0 122.8 75.6 52.6 -42.1 -17.3 -1.1 -4.9 34.5 10 1 23.9 63.0 45.5 19.1 464.4 465.8 475.8 463.5 359.9 363.6 365.3 378.3 104.5 102.2 110.5 85.2 100.5 54.0 67.5 32.8 20.5 -20.0 12.4 86 1 80.0 74.0 55.1 118.9 4.0 48.2 43.1 52.4 433.9 447.3 459.6 452.2 387.8 386.7 398.6 409.3 46.1 60.6 61.0 42.9 30.5 18.5 16.1 11.3 431.4 355.8 75.6 -5.4 75.6 80.9 425.3 406.6 18.7 6.0 81.0 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capita! consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained abroad. z Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors ol the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Net change in installment credit outstanding Installment credit outstanding (end of period) Period Total 1980: 1981: 19821983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1988: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec May June July Auer Sept Oct Dec NEW SERIES: 1989: Jan Feb Mar r Apr r May*1 Revolving 111,936 118,956 124,218 143,799 173,704 209,636 247,313 265,976 281,174 276,458 278,058 277,659 279,585 279,243 278,902 279,926 281,174 54,894 60,838 66,243 78,667 100,212 122,013 137,013 153,884 174,792 162,105 164,408 165,343 167,125 168,273 170,131 173,030 174,792 18,621 20,302 22,833 23,704 25,795 26,834 27,355 26,387 25,744 26,249 26,174 26,213 26,277 26,185 26,033 26,005 25,744 286,382 288,767 288,850 289,531 290,547 176,716 178,570 182,831 184,486 186,428 26,036 25,992 24,168 23,993 23,978 297,566 310,682 323,536 367,868 442,538 517,755 572,047 607,721 659,507 632,431 637,836 639,207 644,666 646,556 649,132 654,413 659,507 Nov r 682 ,020 687,397 691,162 693,654 697,256 r 1 For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month. 2 Because of break in series, net change not available. Mobile home Automobile Other 112,115 110,586 110,242 121,698 142,827 159,272 160,367 161,475 177,798 167,619 169,196 169,993 171,679 172,855 174,066 175,452 177,798 r 192,886 194,068 195,314 195,643 196,302 Total 1,083 13,116 12,854 44,332 74,670 75,217 54,292 35,674 51,786 3,846 5,405 1,371 5,459 1,890 2,576 5,281 5,094 r (2) 5,377 3,765 2,492 3,602 Automobile Revolving Mobile home 539 7,020 5,262 19,581 29,905 35,932 37,677 18,663 15,198 1,169 1,600 -399 1,926 342 -341 1,024 1,248 1,537 5,944 5,405 12,424 21,545 21,801 15,000 16,871 20,908 1,474 2,303 935 1,782 1,148 1,858 2,899 1,762 -31 75 39 64 -92 152 -28 -261 (2) 2,385 82 682 1,016 (2) 1,854 4,261 1,655 1,942 (2) — 44 -1,824 -174 15 r Source: Board of Governors of the Federal B*serve System. 414 1,681 2,531 871 2,091 1,039 521 -968 Q43 1 Other 329 -1,529 344 11,456 21,129 16,445 1,095 1,108 16,323 1,234 1,577 797 1,686 1,176 1,211 1,386 2,346 r (2) l,182 1,246 329 659 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rotes fell in July. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM "f\ t \ 1 , , ( *'/ v N ''\ •• ; i / \ «' V r' '• i 1 \i /A\ \ \ 'I. i \' \ I il f-S '\ 1 y/ V^ /''\ \ C ORPORATE Aaa BONDS (MOODY'S 1-'— \ il \\ \ •• '•• \ \ .A \ / \ i / ^ /\ \ 1 \ \ /• / r '' ^ TREASURY \ \ v RATE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK i— - / \/ ~! '^ '"• 1 • / r^ .-•' /'•: '• --I \| .....---•••''I //v \ 1 J ''- '•••••••"' II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! ! 1982 1981 1 1 M 1 ! I 1 1 1984 1983 M i i i i i 1 i i i li I! ! 1 i 1 1 I t 1 i 1 1 M ^iiljj_uj 1988 1987 1986 1985 1 1 1 1 1 1 U 1989 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: SEE IABIE BEIOW [Percent per annum] U.S. Treasury security yields Period 3-month bills (new issues) * Constant maturities 2 3-year 10-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard3& Poor's) Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) * Prime commercial paper, 6 months * Discount rate (N.Y. F.K. Bank)5 Prime rate charged 5by banks New-home mortgage yields (FHLBB) 6 14.029 10.686 8.63 9.58 7.48 5.98 5.82 6.69 14.44 12.92 10.45 11.89 9.64 7.06 7.68 8.26 13.91 13.00 11.10 12.44 10.62 7.68 8.39 8.85 11.23 11.57 9.47 10.15 9.18 7.38 7.73 7.76 14.17 13.79 12.04 12.71 11.37 9.02 9.38 9.71 14.76 11.89 8.89 10.16 8.01 6.39 6.85 7.68 13.41 11.02 8.50 8.80 7.69 6.33 5.66 6.20 18.87 14.86 10.79 12.04 9.93 8.33 8.22 9.32 14.70 15.14 12.57 12.38 11.55 10.17 9.31 9.19 1988: July Auff Sept. Oct Nov Dec 6.73 7.02 7.23 7.34 7.68 8.09 8.44 8.77 8.57 8.43 8.72 9.11 7.87 7.86 7.71 7.54 7.58 7.66 9.96 10.11 9.82 9.51 9.45 9.57 7.90 8.36 8.23 8.24 8.55 8.97 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.50 6.50-6.50 6.50-6.50 6.50-6.50 6.50-6.50 1989: 8.29 8.48 8.83 8.70 8.40 8.22 7.92 9.20 9.32 9.61 9.40 8.98 8.37 7.83 9.06 9.26 8.98 8.80 8.96 9.11 9.09 9.17 9.36 9.18 8.86 8.28 8.02 7.41 7.47 7.61 7.49 7.25 6.97 6.97 9.62 9.64 9.80 9.79 9.57 9.10 8.94 9.02 9.35 9.97 9.78 9.29 8.80 8.35 6.50-6.50 6.50-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 9.00- 9.50 9.50-10.00 10.00-10.00 10.00-10.00 10.00-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-11.50 11.50-11.50 11.50-11.50 11.50-11.50 11.50-11.00 11 00 1050 9.17 9.06 9.26 9.10 9.43 9.39 9.52 9.82 9.99 10.17 10.18 10.42 8.07 7.96 7.76 7.87 8.09 8.20 7.94 7.80 7.89 7.77 8.14 8.08 8.01 8.07 7.97 6.95 6.99 6.90 7.03 6.95 9.02 8.97 8.94 8.93 8.91 8.73 8.56 8.31 8.36 8.27 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-7.00 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 1 1 00 1 1 00 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Jan Feb Mar Apr.. May June r July " Week ended: 1989: July 1 r 8 15 22 29 1 Bank-discount basis. 2 Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Series excludes public utility issues for January 17, 1984 through October 11, 1984 due to lack of appropriate issues. 5 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices rose in July. INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 (RATIOS CALE) INDEX DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 (RATIO SCALE) 24Q 240 220 200 * 180 160 ( ~/\ COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX __, (NYSE) f — \ / 140 V/^-^ V, ^y ^ 160 ; 140 ,-X/ 120 100 120 100 ^^~ 80 v/~~v \S~ 60 40 1 1 n 1 1 1 \\ \] i^y 80 60 1 1 1 1 11 11 1 1 1 1 1111\ \ \ \ \ \ 1981 I 1I 1 1 11 1 1 1 \ 1 1 1 1 1 t I 1 1 I1 i ( 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 I 1 I 1 1 I 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1985 1984 1983 1982 1986 1987 1 t t 1 I 1 1I 1 1 1 1988 PERC ENT PERC ENT 20 20 15 15 EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS ^v 10 ~"^1 (s&p) -^1 .V — 1 0 1 1 I i 1 1981 1982 OURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE A 1 10 ______ r———-—•, 5 1 I 1983 1 1 1 1 1 1 I I i 1985 1984 1986 5 1 1 1 1987 1 1 1 1 New York Stock Exchange indexes (I)ec. 31, 1965 — 5O) Composite 1981 .. 1982 1983 . 1984 1985... 1986 1987 .. 1988 July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989- Jan Feb Mar May July p Week ended: 1989: July 1 r. 8 15 22 29 1 Industrial Utility 3 0 ECONOMIC ADVISERS Finance Dow-Jones industrial average 3 Standard & Poor's composite index (194143 = 10)4 Dividendprice ratio 74.02 68.93 92.63 92.46 108.09 136.00 161.70 149.91 85.44 78.18 107.45 108.01 123.79 155.85 195.31 180.95 72.61 60.41 89.36 85.63 104.11 119.87 140.39 134.12 38.91 39.75 47.00 46.44 56.75 71.36 74.30 71.77 73.52 71.99 95.34 89.28 114.21 147.20 146.48 127.26 932.92 884.36 1,190.34 1,178.48 1,328.23 1,792.76 2,275.99 2,060.82 128.05 119.71 160.41 160.46 186.84 236.34 286.83 265.79 5.20 5.81 4.40 4.64 4.25 3.49 3.08 3.64 152.12 149.25 151.47 156.36 152.67 155.35 184.09 179.72 182.18 188.58 183.79 187.75 136.49 132.53 136.27 141.93 138.60 144.07 71.50 70.67 71.83 74.19 73.83 74.81 129.99 130.77 133.15 134.66 129.61 128.83 2,104.22 2,051.29 2,080.06 2,144.31 2,099.04 2,148.58 269.05 263.73 267.97 277.40 271.02 276.51 160.40 165.08 164.60 169.38 175.30 180.76 185.15 194.62 200.00 199.20 204.81 211.51 216.75 221.74 153.09 162.66 160.14 164.32 168.88 173.47 179.32 75.87 77.84 77.66 79.69 84.07 87.95 90.40 132.26 137.19 137.91 143.26 146.60 154.08 157.78 2,234.68 2,304.30 2,283.11 2,348.91 2,439.55 2,494.90 2,554.03 285.41 294.01 292.71 302.25 313.93 323.73 331.92 3.65 3.75 3.69 3.61 3.70 3.68 3.64 3.59 3.68 3.59 3.52 3.44 3.38 180.78 179.79 183.97 186.13 188.17 216.63 215.07 219.84 223.23 225.74 174.04 174.06 176.39 180.16 183.91 88.35 88.15 90.55 90.55 91.26 153.57 153.44 157.40 158.14 159.99 2,488.16 2,464.91 2,528.61 2,513.10 2,610.36 323.70 321.58 329.48 333.79 337.95 3.43 3.49 3.39 3.33 3.31 Average of daily closing prices. Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. Includes 30 stocks. 4 Includes 500 stocks. 5 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings2 1 Common stock yields (percent) 5 2 Period Transportation 1 1989 1988 COUNCIL OF v|D STANDARD & POC R'S CORPORATION 1 Common stock prices l 1988: 40 1989 Earningsprice ratio 11.96 11.60 8.03 10.02 8.12 6.09 5.48 r 8.01 8.36 r 8.56 8.46 price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first 9 months of fiscal 1989, there was a deficit of $105.5 billion, compared with a deficit of $119.3 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 1,200 RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS^ 1,100 1,100 1,000 1,000 900 900 800 800 RECEIPTS!/ 700 700 600 600 -100 - -200 -200 1981 1983 1982 1984 1985 1986 1987 1989 1988 1990 FISCAL YEARS I/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT Or THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Fiscal year or period Receipts Outlays Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit Total Held by the public -127.9 -207.8 -185.3 66.4 18.0 76.8 85.4 98.0 113.2 130.2 143.5 147.3 166.1 69.6 19.4 80.7 89.7 100.0 114.3 135.2 151.4 147.1 165.8 -3.2 -1.4 -3.9 -4.3 -2.0 -1.1 5.0 -7.9 .2 .3 629.0 643.6 706.4 776.6 828.9 908.5 994.3 1,136.8 1,371.2 1,564.1 477.4 495.5 549.1 607.1 639.8 709.3 784.8 919.2 1,131.0 1,300.0 946.3 990.3 1,003.8 1,064.0 1,144.1 1,179.4 -212.3 -221.2 -149.7 -155.1 -148.3 -99.2 547.9 568.9 640.7 667.5 731.1 793.3 769.5 806.8 810.0 861.4 933.2 957.1 -221.6 -237.9 -169.3 -193.9 -202.1 -163.8 186.2 200.2 213.4 241.5 264.7 286.8 176.8 183.5 193.8 202.7 211.0 222.3 9.4 16.7 19.6 38.8 53.8 64.5 1,817.0 2,120.1 2,345.6 2,600.8 2,853.5 3,084.8 1,499.4 1,736.2 1,888.1 2,050.2 2,177.8 2,279.2 800.3 855.4 119 3 -105.5 499.9 549.2 649.8 699.8 149 9 -150.6 181.1 200.6 150.6 155.6 30.5 45.0 2,542.8 2,809.1 2,010.0 2,150.8 1985 1986 1987 : 1988 1989 (estimates) l 1990 (estimates) J 734.1 769.1 854.1 909.0 995.9 1,080.1 681.0 749.9 73 7 -14.7 53 6 -59.2 402 -73.8 7ft Q I O.«7 1 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the Budffet, Office of Management and Budget. July 18, 1989. Data for 1990 include asset sales. 2 Data from Monthly Treasury Statement for June 1989, issued July 1989. Surplus or deficit -70.5 -13.3 -49.7 -54.9 -38.2 -72.7 -73.9 1200 -208.0 -185.6 371.8 96.0 409.2 458.7 503.5 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 851.8 32 Outlays 302.2 76.6 328.5 369.1 403.5 476.6 543.0 594.3 661.2 686.0 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 Cumulative total, first 9 months: 2 Fiscal year 1988 Fiscal year 1989 Receipts 231.7 63.2 278.7 314.2 365.3 403.9 469.1 474.3 453.2 500.4 Transition quarter 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1976 Surplus or deficit Gross Federal debt (end of period) Off-budget On-budget Total NOTE. — Data are from Eudget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1990, January 1989, except as noted. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 9 months of fiscal 1989, receipts were $68.9 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $55.1 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 500 RECEIPTS!/ 400 IKirWinilAI INCOME TAXES " 400 \ 300 300 \ SOCIAL INSURANCE TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS 200 CORPORATION INCOME TAXES \ OTHER RECEIPTS 100 '• 200 100 ~ 1 0 | 1 1 1 1 1 | 0 900 900 OUTLAYS^ - NONDEFENSE 800 800 L. 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 . NATIONAL DEFENSE 300 300 200 200 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1989 1988 1990 FISCAL YEARS 1J INCIUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] On-budget and off-budget outlays On-budget and off-budget receipts Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes 298.1 355,6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 131.6 157.6 181.0 217.8 244.1 285.9 297.7 288.9 298.4 41.4 54.9 60.0 65.7 64.6 61.1 49.2 37.0 56.9 90.8 106.5 121.0 138.9 157.8 182.7 201.5 209.0 239.4 34.3 36.6 37.7 40.8 50.6 69.5 69.3 65.6 71.8 371.8 409.2 458.7 503.5 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 851.8 89.6 97.2 104.5 116.3 134.0 157.5 185.3 209.9 227.4 734.1 769.1 854.1 909.0 995.9 1,080.1 334.5 349.0 392.6 401.2 445.3 484.6 61.3 63.1 83.9 94.5 105.8 117.0 265.2 283.9 303.3 334.3 361.5 387.5 73.0 73.1 74.3 78.9 83.3 91.0 946.3 990.3 1,003.8 1,064.0 1,144.1 1,179.4 681.0 749.9 301.7 334.3 70.6 79.2 250.4 273.7 . J 58.4 62.6 800.3 855.4 Fiscal year Total 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982.... 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 (estimates)' 1990 (estimates) ' Cumulative total, first 9 months: 2 Fiscal year 1988 Fiscal year 1989 1 2 See footnote 1, page 32. Data from Monthly Treasury Statement for June 1989,4ssued July 1989, National defense Social insurance taxes and contributions Other Income security Social security Net interest 15.8 19.3 22.8 26.5 32.1 39.1 4«.6 52.6 57.5 60.8 61.0 61.5 66.4 86.5 99.7 107.7 122.6 112.7 73.9 85.1 93.9 104.1 118.5 139.6 156.0 170.7 178.2 26.7 29.9 35.4 42.6 52.5 68.7 85.0 89.8 111.1 93.0 114.7 119.6 131.4 133.5 125.4 122.3 118.6 33.5 35.9 40.0 44.5 49.6 56.4 65.8 70.2 75.1 78.9 86.2 97.1 128.2 119.8 123.3 129.3 136.6 USA 188.6 198.8 207.4 219.3 232.4 249.1 129.4 136.0 138.6 151.7 169.1 176.3 131.8 142.1 125.9 139.4 158.3 142.4 33.2 36.1 59.0 62.1 97.5 108.2 164.5 114.2 113.0 125.6 105.0 118.4 International affairs Health 87.9 95.1 102.3 113.6 130.9 153.9 180.7 204.4 220.9 6.4 6.4 7.5 7.5 12.7 13.1 12.3 11.8 15.9 15.7 17.3 18.5 20.5 23.2 26.9 27.4 28.6 30.4 252.7 273.4 282.0 290.4 301.2 296.3 245.2 265.5 274.0 281.9 292.7 286.9 16.2 14.2 11.6 10.5 10.7 16.4 219.4 227.7 213.3 221.3 8.7 1.5 Total Total Department of Defense, military Medicare Other 82.8 NOTE.—Data are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1990, January 1989, except as noted. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and.Budget. FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the first quarter of 1989, according to revised estimates, Federal receipts rose $41.6 billion (annual rate) and Federal expenditures rose $21.6 billion. In the second quarter, according to advance estimates, outlays rose $14.1 billion; receipts data are incomplete. (Series revised.) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 1,200 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL SATES . EXPENDITURES. 1,000 1,000 800 800 RECEIPTS 600 600 400 400 200 200 SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-) -200 -200 I I 1981 I I I I 1982 I I I 1 I 1985 1984 1983 1987 1986 I I 1988 1 I I 1989 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Government expenditures Federal Government receipts Period Total Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Contributions for social insurance 74.6 81.1 97.7 305.8 326.1 345.0 386.4 310.9 332.1 Purchases of goods and services Transfer payments Grantsin-aid to State and local governments 962,3 1,028.0 1 ',060.4 1,104.0 341.5 368.6 375.5 378.6 374.0 394.6 411.2 432.7 97.8 107.4 103.1 108.6 128.3 985.6 1,034.8 1,072.8 355.2 366.5 380.1 399.9 414.3 438.2 99.7 106.8 102.6 111.4 84.5 86.0 96.3 103.5 103.0 101.7 102.2 130.1 135.6 141.7 151.4 87.2 101.0 125.3 132.7 136.0 142.5 147.3 110.1 112.2 111.0 112.2 118.7 118.9 144.9 149.9 153.9 157.0 167.0 172.1 Total Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Surplus or deficit (-), national income and product accounts Fiscal year: 1985 1986 r 1987 r. 1988 T 776.8 815.2 897.3 958.6 340.4 357.0 408.0 108.3 55.9 50.9 53.4 55.8 788.7 827.9 911.4 972.4 346.4 76.3 83.8 101.0 111.4 46.4 70.2 69.7 78'8 88.9 107.4 103.1 55.1 50.5 53.8 56.7 47.6 53.6 56.2 53.5 50.8 53.8 54.5 104.2 111.6 114.0 115.8 117.0 55.9 55.9 57.4 57.8 58.0 58.5 401.2 134.6 138.8 149.0 20.7 22.8 — 0.1 .0 .1 — .1 — 185.5 — 212.8 -163.1 20.3 26.0 32.6 36.0 23.4 29.1 21.0 19.0 29.2 22.7 41.9 — .2 .0 .0 .0 — 196.9 .2 -.2 -143.9 -164.4 34.4 41.2 29.4 38.9 38.5 35.0 .0 .0 — 151.8 — 141.5 — 122.5 31.9 35.1 — 145.4 Calendar year: 1985 1986 1987 1988 19821983: 19841985: 1986: 1987: r r r . IV IV IV IV IV r III T IV 1988: I r ... Ill ''".'.".'.. IV " 1989: Ir II " 361.4 405.8 413.0 633.1 675.5 742.7 805.3 853.8 303.0 921.5 937.4 408.1 291.9 326.0 355.3 376.2 420.0 944.7 973.2 977.3 994.6 402.7 1,036.2 446.8 464.2 417.5 411.4 420.3 NOTE.—Series revised beginning- 1!>8«. See Survey of Current 34 350.8 391.3 236.1 381.6 381.3 276.1 347.4 352.5 326.0 376.6 368.8 385.8 405.8 293.2 337.9 835.7 844.7 930.2 1,017.5 1,042.8 352.2 359.7 1,065.5 1,101.7 382.0 388.2 394.5 400.6 1,096.5 1J14.7 1,099.8 1,162.1 367.5 406.4 433.0 434.4 438.0 447.6 414.3 419.8 1,183.7 1,197.8 399.0 403.9 460.4 467.9 259.8 290.7 317.7 384.5 388.1 374.1 377.1 362.1 414.3 421.9 Sofircc: Department of Oommerec, Bureau of Economic Analysis. .0 .0 .6 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 — 206.9 — 161.4 -145.8 — 202.6 -169.2 — 187.5 -212.2 — 189.0 -167.6 -147.5 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Consumer prices (1982-84=100) Industrial production (1977 = 100; seasonally adjusted) Period 380 981 882 983 984 985 986 987 988 988- May } July . Sept Oct Nov Dec 1989: Jan Feb Mar May June * 1 United States Canada Japan France Germany Italy 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.4 123.7 125.1 129.8 137.2 104.8 106.9 96.5 102.7 115.2 121.4 123.2 129.6 137.2 119.0 120.3 120.7 124.5 136.1 141.0 140.8 145.7 159.1 107.2 106.1 105.0 105.0 106.1 106.1 107.2 109.4 114.3 108.0 105.9 102.7 103.3 106.2 111.0 113.0 113.7 118.1 114.8 113.0 109.5 105.9 109.5 110.7 113.7 118.3 124.3 136.1 136.5 138.0 138.5 138.6 139.4 139.9 140.4 137.3 137.9 137.4 138.7 138.8 137.8 137.1 137.9 153.3 158.4 156.4 160.8 161.6 160.2 165.0 166.1 112.9 114.9 116.0 116.0 117.2 113.2 118.0 117.3 116.1 118.5 116.1 121.3 120.0 119.4 119.1 121.2 120.8 122.7 126.2 118.9 122.9 126.7 128.5 129.2 r 118.2 140.8 137.5 167.3 117.3 140.5 ' 138.2 164.5 116.2 ' 140.7 ' 137.5 172.5 ' 141.6 139.2 ' 168.3 141.4 167.8 141 1 121.2 120.5 121.3 r 124.3 119.8 Data relate to all urban consumers. United States ' United Kingdom Canada Japan 90.9 95.4 98.0 '99.9 102.1 104.2 France 99.8 96.7 98.5 102.2 102.4 107.9 110.2 114.1 r l!8.1 82.4 90.9 96.5 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 118.3 76.1 85.6 94.8 100.4 104.7 108.9 113.4 118.4 ' 123.2 72.2 81.9 91.7 100.3 108.0 114.3 '104.9 117.2 ' 105.0 121.1 105.7 ' 124.3 117.9 117.5 118.0 118.5 119.0 119.8 120.2 120.3 120.5 122.8 ' 123.0 123.7 124.1 '105.7 123.9 ' 105.5 '124.2 '105.3 124.7 '124.2 '124.8 106.4 106.9 106.5 ' 106.2 121.1 121.6 122.3 123.1 123.8 124.1 125.7 '106.0 126.5 ' 126.6 '105.7 '126.8 '127.2 '106.2 127.2 127.6 '108.1 128.0 128.9 108.7 128.5 129.6 '118.7 ' 119.0 ' 119.0 '119.6 r r 119.0 l!9.6 r 118.8 '117.6 r l!7.3 r l!7.5 118.1 116.4 125.1 125.1 '105.6 '125.0 125.3 125.6 125.8 126.0 Germany Italy 86.7 63.2 92.2 75.4 97.1 87.7 100.3 100.8 102.7 111.5 104.9 121.0 104.6 128.5 105.0 134.4 106.2 '141.1 106.2 106.3 140.0 ' 140.5 108.1 108.4 108.6 109.2 109.5 78.5 87.9 95.4 99.8 104.8 111.2 114.9 119.7 125.6 124.8 '125.2 ' 143.3 125.4 126.8 127.4 128.7 '144.5 '129.2 '106.3 ' 140.9 106.3 '141.5 106.3 '142.2 106.4 106.7 106.9 United Kingdom ' 145.0 129.6 '146.1 '147.3 '148.0 '130.4 149.0 134.3 135.1 135.6 r '149.6 150.3 131.4 '131.9 Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Trade Administration). U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Merchandise exports (f.a.s. value) 1 General merchandise imports (customs value) 3 Principal end-use commodity category 1988: May ' June ' July '.. Aug ' Sept ' Oct ' Nov '. Dec ' 1989: Jan ' Feb' Mar ' Apr '.... May 4 14.3 13.4 13.3 12.6 14.2 17.7 23.1 20.5 24.0 27.3 35.9 34.6 48.4 9.2 8.8 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.4 10.1 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.7 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.3 9.4 9.3 9.9 10.1 9.8 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.6 322.4 31.3 30.9 31.5 24.0 22.3 24.3 32.3 61.7 56.7 61.7 58.5 57.3 66.7 85.1 72.7 67.2 72.0 73.9 75.8 86.2 109.2 27.4 26.7 26.6 27.5 27.6 27.9 27.5 28.9 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.8 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 6.8 7.0 7.4 29.0 28.8 30.1 30.8 30.5 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.1 3.2 7.1 7.5 7.6 8.0 7.9 2 116.4 4 15.7 16.8 20.6 22.9 21.7 24.6 29.3 Capital goods except automotive Total 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 '... Consumer goods (nonfood) except automotive Foods, feeds, and beverages Period 1982 1983 Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines Industrial supplies and materials 205.6 224.0 218.8 227.2 254.1 1 Includes Department of Defense Military Assistance 2 Includes undocumented exports to Canada. 3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit 4 Capital goods except automotive Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines Consumer goods (nonfood) except automotive Other General merchandise imports (c.i.f. value) 112.0 107.0 123.7 113.9 101.3 111.0 118.5 35.4 40.9 59.8 65.1 71.8 84.5 101.4 33.3 40.8 53.5 66.8 78.2 85.2 81.7 39.7 44.9 60.0 68.3 79.4 88.7 95.9 6.5 6.3 7.8 9.4 10.4 12.1 12.8 254.9 269.9 346.4 352.5 382.3 424.4 459.5 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 10.4 10.2 9.7 10.2 9.3 9.9 9.8 10.2 8.3 8.8 7.9 8.9 8.7 8.2 9.1 9.1 6.8 7.3 6.6 7.2 7.6 7.7 7.5 8.0 7.7 8.0 7.9 8.1 8.0 8.1 8.3 9.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 37.7 38.8 36.5 39.2 38.2 38.6 39.6 41.3 -8.7 -10.6 -8.5 -10.1 -9.2 -9.2 -10.5 -10.8 -10.2 -12.1 -9.9 11 7 106 -10.7 -12.1 -12.5 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.2 10.7 10.0 11.0 11.3 11.8 9.0 9.3 9.3 9.1 10.0 7.4 7.6 7.7 7.3 7.2 7.7 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.4 .9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 39.5 39.7 41.2 40.7 42.4 -8.9 -9.4 95 -8.3 -10.2 -10.5 -10.9 11 2 -9.9 11 9 Foods feeds, and beverages Industrial supplies and materials 244.0 258.0 325.7 345.3 365.4 406.2 441.0 17.1 18.2 21.0 21.9 24.4 24.8 24.8 3.8 4.0 3.5 3.4 3.6 4.4 4.0 3.6 36.1 37.3 35.1 37.6 36.8 37.1 38.1 39.7 4.7 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.6 37.9 38.2 39.5 39.0 40.7 Other z 20.7 Program grant-aid shipments. shipments. Total exports are on a revised statistical month basis; end-use categories are on a statistical month basis. Trade balance Principal end-use commodity category Total Exports (f.a.s) imports (customs value) 27 5 -52.4 101 7 Exports (f.a.s) less imports (c.i.f.) 384 — 64.2 1224 -126.5 -133.6 -138.3 155 1 152 1 -170.3 -118.5 -1ST.1 NOTE.—Data shown include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands. Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1987; unadjusted data, beginning 1988. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS in the first quarter of 1989, the current account deficit rose to $30.7 billion, from $28.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 1988. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLL)\RS* 10 10 5 5 ^jH^-lJ/\V 0 -5 0 Vi v R\ •A\ "*•» •— X \\\x -5 -10 \\ vN X \ -25 \ V. ,—, x ^v 'Vvi \v ^^\ \ >\ -35 v /s / -25 \ -30 ^^^* ^^ *^^"***fc -35 ' BALANCE (DN CURRENT ACC OUNT MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANC E -40 -45 f\ VV v p\ >T x '^ ^J / i ii v-"X% -30 -20 BALANCE ON G OODS AND SERVIC ES 1 I 1 1 1 I 1 1982 1981 1 1 1983 1 1 1 1984 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1986 1985 -40 1987 1 1 1 1 1 -45 1989 1988 * SEASONALLY ADJUS TED SOURCE: OEPARTMEN OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits (—)] Merchandise * Investment inconi e3 2 Kemit- Period Exports 1980 1981 1982 C 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1986- I II m IV 1987- I n in IV 1988: I n in 1989: 1 2 3 IV I" 224 269 237 085 211 198 201 820 219 900 215 935 223 367 250 266 319 251 53 899 56,796 56,182 56,490 57 255 60,015 64,297 68,699 76,447 78,471 80,604 83,729 88,496 Imports 249 749 265 063 247 642 268 900 332 422 — 338083 368 425 409 766 446466 89 549 -90,812 -92,983 -95,081 95 916 -99,834 - 104,903 -109,113 - 109,893 -109,882 -110,943 -115,748 -116,130 Net balance Heceipts 25 480 72 506 27 978 86412 36 444 83 548 67 080 77 251 112 522 85 908 122 148 88 832 145 058 88 615 159 500 104 703 127 215 107 775 35 650 23 970 -34,016 22,078 -36,801 21,744 -38,591 20,822 38 661 25 117 -39,819 22,744 -40,606 23,578 -40,414 33,265 -33,446 26,750 -31,411 23,148 -30,339 24,720 -32,019 33,159 -27,634 26,862 Payments 42 119 30 387 52 329 34083 54 884 28 664 52 376 24 875 67 419 18 489 — 62 901 25931 66 968 21 647 82 420 22 283 2 227 105 548 6 613 17 357 -17,533 4,545 6,015 -15,729 4,472 -16,350 5 362 19 755 2,190 -20,554 1,674 -21,904 -20,207 13,058 2,795 -23,955 -25,613 -2,465 -27,310 -2,590 4,489 -28,670 -30,370 -3,508 Excludes military. Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the 36 Net Net military transactions 2 577 1 523 474 — 343 2 099 — 3 557 4 576 2 857 4 606 1 411 -1,298 -1,089 -777 176 -210 -1,031 — 1,440 -964 -1,033 -1,006 -1,604 -1,482 pensions, and other unilateral transfers 1 Balance on current account travel and transportation receipts Other services, net 3 Balance on goods and services 997 144 992 4 227 7 885 —9 832 8 031 7 324 2 633 2 452 -1,465 -1,874 -2,241 1 965 -2,088 -1,279 -1,993 -1,854 -719 -155 94 -464 7 794 11 085 11 436 12 264 12 299 12 351 18 547 17 909 20 335 4 620 4,581 4,539 4,807 4 250 4,372 4,555 4,734 4,787 5,042 5,126 5,381 5,823 1 533 7 593 9 126 8 163 7 647 15 810 6997 9 188 2 191 —44,286 — 34510 — 9776 104 186 12 468 91 718 — 97 256 — 15 426 — 112,682 133 249 15 778 117 470 143 700 14 212 129 488 14 ggg 126 548 111 892 31 348 3 068 28 280 -31,852 -27,653 -4,199 -33,586 -29,210 -4,376 -36,466 -4,136 -32,330 34327 3 137 31 190 -38,820 -35,555 -3,265 -3,225 -39,912 -36,687 -30,641 -26,055 -4,586 -3,364 -32,046 -28,682 -33,485 -30,586 -2,899 -32,340 -3,376 -28,964 -5,018 -28,677 -23,659 -27,265 -3,420 -30,685 United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $22.6 billion in the first quarter of 1989, compared with an increase of $30.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 1988. Liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $10.4 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $32.2 billion in the fourth quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* CHANGE IN FOREIGN ASSETS IN THE U.S..NET 20 20 -20 -20 -40 -40 1989 1981 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] U.S. assets abroad, net [increase /capit Period Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1986: I n rn IV 1987: I U.S. private assets -8,155 -5,175 -4,965 1 196 -3,131 3 858 312 9,149 -3,566 -5,162 -72,802 -5,097 - 100,679 -6,131 110058 -5,006 -43,576 -5,489 -13,685 -2,821 -25,950 -2,024 -97,954 997 86,363 2,999 -81,543 -15,401 -24,763 -26,078 -33,422 -115 16 280 132 1,956 3,419 32 3,742 1,503 39 -7,380 2,272 -4,000 -232 238 -1,565 11 40 195 308 843 -1,490 -885 1,961 3,413 1,012 8,759 -22,632 -25,976 -36,370 n m 4,540 -16,119 -37,886 -32,648 IV 1989: I" Other U.S. Government assets -86,118 -110,951 -121,153 -49,777 -22,304 -32,628 -99,665 -76,218 -82,110 n m IV 1988: I U.S. official reserve2 assets * Foreign assets in the U.S., net2 [increase /capital inflow ( + )] ] -31,816 Total Other foreign assets Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy U.S. official reserve assets, net 1 (unadjusted, end of period) 26,756 30,074 33,958 33,747 34,934 43,186 48,511 45,798 47,802 25,322 18,663 34,404 9,194 23,869 15,298 11,308 1,878 10 641 58,112 83,032 93,746 84,869 102,621 130,012 221,605 218,039 219,299 15,497 4,960 3,593 5,845 3,140 1 083 35J594 45,193 38,882 42,615 78,072 90,154 79,023 99,481 131,096 186,011 172,847 180,418 15054 -24,541 24 793 -33,565 39,048 50,291 69,927 62,339 36,328 34,453 54,142 61,088 7,701 6,324 -10,263 7,549 3,515 -3,306 -4,669 4,463 6,763 -25,856 26 316 -40,955 33,381 51,134 73,575 59,949 2,720 15,838 15,785 1,251 14,040 10,329 753 20,070 19,341 40,805 72,822 39,879 -7,813 10,318 -7,687 7,062 3,895 -2,559 4 501 3,166 44,919 46,595 48,087 48,511 48,824 45,140 45,070 45,798 4,528 15,273 -32,467 38,332 27,027 65,334 46,179 80,759 24,631 5,895 -2,234 10,589 2,396 59,438 48,413 70,170 479 -15,729 24,047 -19,434 3,843 -3,714 -4,556 4,431 43,186 41,028 47,786 47,802 -28,828 49,077 6,914 42,163 13,424 4,264 49,854 1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the IMF. 2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. Foreign official assets Statistical discrepancy Allocations of special drawing rights (SDKs) 1,152 1,093 Sources; Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Employment Cost Index—Private Industry Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base Bank Loans and Securities Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Consumer Installment Credit Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: p Preliminary. T Revised. c Corrected. ... Not available (also, not applicable). NSA not seasonally adjusted. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Price $2.25 (single copy) ($2.81 foreign). Subscription price: $24.00 per year; $30.00 for foreign mailing. 38 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1989 0—19-907