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97tb Longress, 2d Session

Economic Indicators
JULY

1982

Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the
Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1982
Ptliic

* STAR PRINT




Si

SEP % 1 1982
/Z313

W°'

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
HENRY S. REUSS, Wisconsin, Chairman
ROGER W. JEPSEN, Iowa, Vice Chairman
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
RICHARD BOLLING (Missouri)
LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana)
GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana)
PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland)
FREDERICK W. RICHMOND (New York)
CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio)
MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts)
JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California)
CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio)

SENATE
WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)
JAMES ABDNOR (South Dakota)
STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho)
PAULA HAWKINS (Florida)
MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia)
LtOYD BENTSEN (Texas)
WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin)
EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)
PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland)

JAMES K. GALBRAITH, Executive Director

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
MURRAY L. WEIDENBAUM, Chairman
WILLIAM A. NISKANEN
JERRY L. JORDAN
[PUBLIC LAW 120—SlsT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the
Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that
a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant
at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two
copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the
Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for
distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies
printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.

Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.75 a single copy
($3.45 foreign), or by subscription at $21.00 per year ($26.25 for foreign mailing)
from:
SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402




TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
According to preliminary estimates for the second quarter of 1982, gross national product rose $51.9 billion or 7.1
percent, both at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 1.7 percent, annual rate, and the
implicit price deflator rose at a 5.3 percent annual rate.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

(RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

3,200

3,200

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

3,000

3,000

2,800

2,800

2,600

2,600
GNP
. IN CURRENT DOLLARS _

2,400

2,400

2,200

2,200

2,000

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,600

1,400

1,400
GNP
IN 1972 DOLLARS

1,200

1,200

1

1975

1974

1

I

1

1978

1976

1979

1980

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

I

1982

1981

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

Gross
national
product

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Gross
private
domestic
investment

Federal
Net
exports

Exports

National
defense

83.0
86.0
92.8
100.3
111.8
131.4
153.7

29.1
33.9
39.7
43.2
50.6
53.3
56.5
65.8
75.2

193.3
207.0

130.5
138.1

62.8
68.9

345.2
352.8

2,664.8
2,757.1

578.1
583.2
600.2
626.3

217.0
218.2
230.0
250.5

143.1
150.5
154.4
166.9

73.9
67.7
75.7
83.6

361.1
365.0
370.1
375.7

2,852.7
2,877.2
2,949.1
2,989.9

630.1
631.9

249.7
244.1

166.2
172.2

83.5
71.9

380.4
387.8

3,031.1
3,067.0

298.2
323.2

538.5
559.8

31.2
23.7
25.9
23.5

365.4
368.9
367.2
367.9

334.2
345.1
341.3
344.4

31.3
35.6

359.9
360.9

328.6
325.3

109.6
146.2
154.9
170.9
182.7
218.7
281.4
339.2
367.3

1980: III
IV

2,643.7
2,739.4

1,682.0
1,745.8

384.1
410.3

39.0
23.5

1981: I
II

in

2,864.9
2,901.8
2,980.9
3,003.2

1,799.9
1,819.4
1,868.8
1,884.5

455.7
475.5
486.0
468.9

1982: I
II*

2,995.5
3,047.4

1,919.4
1,950.8

414.8
429.1

68.8
77.5

NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1977 for current dollars, and beginning 1973 for deflators and
1972 dollars.

64.7
76.7
95.4

State and
local

1,070.0
1,175.7
1,307.9
1,420.1
1,556.1
1,706.2
1,895.3
2,137.4
2,403.5
2,643.1
2,917.3

337.2
346.7

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

.7
14.2
13.4
26.8
13.8
4.0
-1.1
13.2
25.2
26.1

4.1

Nondefense

138.7
151.4
168.5
193.1
217.2
232.9
250.4
278.3
306.0
341.2
368.0

132.8
128.1
157.1
186.7
219.8
268.1
314.0
341.3

166.4
195.0
229.8
228.7
206.1
257.9
324.1
386.6
423.0
402.3
471.5




Total

96.2
101.7
102.0
111.0
122.7
129.2
143.4
153.6
168.3
197.2
228.9

672.2
737.1
812.0
888.1
976.4
1,084.3
1,204.4
1,346.5
1,507.2
1,667.2
1,843.2

IV

Imports

234.9
253.1
270.4
304.1
339.9
362.1
393.8
431.9
474.4
538.4
596.9

1,077.6
1,185.9
1,326.4
1,434.2
1,549.2
1,718.0
1,918.3
2,163.9
2,417.8
2,633.1
2,937.7

1971
1972
1973
1974

Goven iment purchs ses of
goc ds and servi ces

Exports ar d imports of goods and
services

70.2
73.1
72.8
77.0

26.0
28.5

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS
[Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Gross
national
product

Period

Personal
consumption
expenditures

(5ross private
dom estic investnlent
Nonresidential
fixed

Residential fixed

112.2

EJ ports of goods
and services

in
business
inventories

Net
exports

Exports

126.7
146.2
159.2
158.5

53.1
45.6

155.9
155.1

102.8
109.6

48.2
44.2
39.2
36.5

159.3
159.7
157.8
156.9

36.9
35.6

151.7
152.3

8.1
10.2
17.2
11.6
6.7
7.8
13.3
16.0
7.3
-5.0
9.0

1.6
.7
15.5
27.8
32.2
25.4
22.0
24.0
37.2
50.6
42.0

71.0
77.5
97.3
108.5
103.5
110.1
112.9

1978
1979
1980
1981

53.7
63.8
62.3
48.2
42.2
51.2
60.7
62.4
59.1
47.2
44.9

1980: m
IV

1,463.8
1,479.4

928.0
941.0

163.8
166.4

44.0
49.5

-8.5
-6.2

1981: I

1,507.8
1,502.2
1,510.4
1,490.1

951.1
944.6
951.4
943.4

169.7
170.1
173.9
174.2

49.6
47.3
42.9
39.9

1,470.7
1,476.8

949.1
956.3

172.0
168.2

38.9
39.2

1982: I
n

"

-15.4
-6.9

Federal

103.7
101.7
95.9
96.6
97.4
96.8
100.4
100.3
102.1

121.0
138.1
135.7
119.3
125.6
140.3
158.3
169.9
166.1
172.0

2.4
12.1
16.5
4.8

Total

250.1
253.1
253.3
260.3
265.2
265.2
269.2
274.6
278.3
284.6
287.1

696.8
737.1
767.9
762.8
779.4
823.1
864.3
903.2
927.6
930.5
947.6

n
m
rv

Imports

69.3
76.7
81.8
80.7
71.4
84.7
90.9
102.7
109.0
108.6
116.4

1,122.4
1,185.9
1,254.3
1,246.3
1,231.6
1,298.2
1,369.7
1,438.6
1,479.4
1,474.0
1,502.6

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977

Governm int purchases of goods
and services
State and
local

146.4
151.4
157.4
163.6
167.8
168.4

sales

106.5
110.4

168.8
174.3
176.2
178.1
176.7

1,114.3
1,175.3
1,237.1
1,234.7
1,238.4
1,290.4
1,356.4
1,422.6
1,472.2
1,479.0
1,493.7

283.4
283.2

105.5
104.8

177.9
178.4

1,472.4
1,485.7

111.1
115.5
118.7
120.4

286.8
283.9
286.4
291.3

107.9
107.0
110.7
116.0

179.0
176.9
175.7
175.3

1,505.4
1,490.1
1,493.9
1,485.3

114.7
116.8

289.2
284.5

114.4
109.4

174.9
175.0

1,486.1
1,483.7

NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1977 for current dollars, and beginning 1973 for deflators and
1972 dollars.

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
[1972 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]

Period

Gross
national
product

Personal ecmsumption
expenciitures
Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable goods

Gross private domestic
inves ment
Services

dential
fixed

159.7
173.7
191.6
208.2

187.9
190.8

221.8
223.4

216.3
223.5

290.1
294.9

183.3
197.5

194.0
197.8

189.6
193.4
198.6
203.6

194.5
200.7
203.0
206.8

229.0
231.7
235.8
239.2

229.3
230.9
232.6
234.5

300.7
298.7
287.7
286.1

201.2
204.0
207.8
216.0

201.7
206.3
210.7
214.3

207.4
210.7

207.6
210.5

240.5
241.8

237.3
237.0

286.4
278.6

218.3
223.1

217.5
221.5

95.6
100.0
104.7
113.0
121.6
129.6
139.3
150.0
162.3
178.8
196.3

96.2
100.0
103.8
115.4
132.2
138.6
146.3
157.2
170.8
186.1
201.3

1980: m

180.60
185.16

181.2
185.5

158.0
161.1

190.5
195.1

180.9
185.4

1981:

190.01
193.17
197.36
201.55

189.2
192.6
196.4
199.8

163.0
166.2
169.7
171.3

199.3
201.7
204.2
205.6

203.68
206.35

202.2
204.0

173.0
174.6

206.8
206.9

I

IV
1982:

I

n"

NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1973.




State and
local

158.0
178.3
200.5
218.5
233.6

96.6
100.0
108.5
123.4
132.5
137.2
143.6
153.4
169.9
188.4
202.7

n
m

Federal

134.8
149.6
155.3
161.9
172.6
192.5
213.1
231.8

99.0
100.0
101.7
108.2
117.3
123.9
129.2
136.4
145.0
156.3
167.5

rv

Imports

92.7
100.0
106.3
114.9
126.0
133.5
142.8
153.1
164.8
185.2
207.4

96.5
100.0
105.7
116.4
125.3
131.7
139.3
149.1
162.5
179.2
194.5

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

Exports

Governmen £ purchases
of goods aiid services

93.3
100.0
116.7
164.6
179.6
185.6
205.5
214.1
246.1
289.3
293.1

96.01
100.00
105.75
115.08
125.79
132.34
140.05
150.42
163.42
178.64
195.51

1971
1972

Residential fixed

Exports a id imports
of goods a id services

94.8
100.0
109.1
120.3
131.0
140.7

97.0
100.0
112.7

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

94.7
100.0
107.0
118.0
129.4
138.3
148.4

CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES
[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Personal consumption e xpenditures

Ore ss national pr sduct

Period

Current
dollars

Constant
(1972)
dollars

n
m
IV

19.6
5.3
11.4
3.0

0.2
3.4
5.7
5.8
.6
— 1.2
5.4
5.5
5.0
2.8
-.4
1.9
1.6
4.3
7.9
-1.5
2.2
-5.3

I
Hp

-1.0
7.1

-5.1
1.7

5.2
8.6
10.1
11.8
8.1
8.0
10.9
11.7
12.8
11.7
8.9
11.6
11.4
15.3

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1980: in
IV
1981: I

1982:

Implicit
price
deflator

Chain price
index

5.4
5.0
4.2
5.8
8.8
9.3
5.2
5.8
7.4
8.6
9.3
9.4

5.3
4.9
4.1
6.0
9.1

9.6
10.5
10.9
6.8
9.0
8.8
4.3
5.3

9.7
11.0
9.3
8.2
9.2
8.4
5.0
4.7

9.2
5.7
6.1
7.6
8.9
9.0
9.4

NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter.

Fixedweighted
price index
(1972
weights)
5.2
4.8
4.0

Fixedweighted
price index
(1972
weights)

4.6
4.3
3.7
5.7
10.1
7.6
5.1
5.8
7.0
9.0
10.3
8.6

4.6
4.3
3.6
6.1
10.4
7.7
5.3
6.0
7.3
9.3
10.7
9.1

4.5
4.2
3.5
6.1
10.4
7.8
5.3
6.2
7.4
9.7
11.2
9.3

9.6
9.8

4.4
-2.7
2.9
-3.3
2.5
3.0

9.6
10.2
9.4
9.9
11.0
11.1
11.8
11.9
10.6
10.6
15.6
16.1
13.0
4.4
11.3
3.4
7.6
6.7

10.0
8.4
8.9
8.5
4.8
4.6

Chain price
index

2.2
3.7
5.8
4.2
-.7
2.2
5.6
5.0
4.5
2.7
.3
1.8
5.4
5.7

8.3
7.3
8.2
7.0

9.8
10.0
10.3
7.4
8.0
7.2
5.2
3.5

9.8
10.1
10.9
7.7
7.6
7.1
4.8
3.0

6.9
8.1

6.0
9.4
9.1
5.8
6.3
7.8
9.5
9.9
9.6
9.4
11.2

Implicit
price
deflator

Constant
(1972)
dollars

Current
dollars

5.0
3.6

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Series revised beginning 1977 for current dollars and beginning 1973 for deflators and 1972 dollars.

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND
PROFITS
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Current-dollar cc st and profit per unit of output (dolla rs) 1

Gross ( omestic
product of lonfinaneial
corporate business
(billions c f dollars)
Period
Current
dollars

1970
1971
1972

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1980:

1972
dollars

563.7
609.9
678.0
759.4

599.6
626.8
678.0

818.9

708.2
694.2
745.5
795.8
846.3

890.0
1,001.3
1,128.4
1,276.2
1,416.8
1,537.7
1.732.3

731.9

876.1
860.3

881.3

Total
cost and
profit 2

0.940
.973
1.000
1.038

1.156
1.282
1.343
1,418
1.508
1.617
1.787
1.966
1.811
1,852
1.906
1.940
1.987

1982:

1,543.6
1,606.5

852.5
867.4

I

IV

1981:

HI
IV

n
m

1,683.3
1,715.0
1,763.6
1,767.2

883.0
884.2
887.5
870.4

2.030

I

1,756.6

858.8

2.045

1

Capital
consumption
allowances
with
capital
consumption
adjustment
0.087
.091
.092

.093
.112
.137
.141
.145
.155
.171
.200
.222
.206
.208
.211
.218
.224
.236
.242

Indirect
business
taxes 3

0.106
.113
.113
.114
.127
.140
.141
.141
.144
.149
.173
.202
.178
.186
.196
.202
.203
.208
.205

Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1972 dollars.
2
This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with
the decimal point shifted two places to the left.
3
Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies.
4
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.




Compensation of
employees

0.631
.641
.659
.692

.786
.837
.878
.928
.998
1.094
1.211
1.305
1.224
1.245
1.267
1.289
1.315
1.349
1.376

Corporate profits with inventory
valuation £md capital cc nsumption
adjustments

Net
interest
Total

0.028

.029
.028
.031
.042
.044
.040
.040
.044
.050
.061
.071
.061
.066
.062
.069
.074
.078
.082

0.088
.099

.107
.107
.090
.124
.144
.163
.168
.154
.143
.165
.143
.147
.170
.161
.171
.159
.140

Profits
tax
liability

0.045
.047
.049

.055
.059
.059
.071
.075
.079
.079
.075
.072
.075
.078
.081
.069
.074
.063
.045

Profits

0.043

.052
.058
.053
.030
.065
.073
.088
.089
.075
.068
.093
.068
.069
.089
.091
.097
.096
.095

Output
of all
employees (1972
dollars)

Compensation per
hour of
all
employees
(dollars)

7.880

4.498
4.788
5.068
5.458
5.989
6.596

8.131
8.315

7.138
7.716

7.126
7.466
7.688

7.891
7.621

8.396

8.377

8.411

9.198

8.385
8.536

10.153
11.139

8.414

10.296
10.529

8.460

8.557 *" 10.841
11.027
8.553
8.556
11.251
11.473
8.503
8.570

11.791

NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1977.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor
(Bureau of Labor Statistics).

NATIONAL INCOME
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

Compensation of
employeesl

National
income

Proprietors' income with
inventory v iluation and
capital co nsumption
adjust ments

Nonfarm

Farm

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

1981:

1982:

Profits v, ith inventory valuation
adjustme nt and withou t capital
consiimption adjust ment

-1.8
-10.1
-13.5
-11.3
-12.7
-14.8
-17.8
-16.8

177.8
181.2

197.0
200.4

238.1
245.9

-41.1
-45.5

-19.3
-19.2

190.4
203.0

34.4
34.0
33.6
33.6

200.3
185.1
193.1
183.9

217.6
202.6
210.3
199.4

253.1
225.4
233.3
216.5

-35.5
-22.8
-23.0
-17.1

-17.3
-17.5
-17.1
-15.5

217.6
231.6
244.0
249.5

33.9
34.2

157.1

167.2

171.6

-4.4
-6.3

-10.1
-5.9

258.7
267.3

1,718.0
1,750.0
1,789.1
1,813.4

21.6
22.5
27.1
24.6

101.8
101.2
100.4
99.5

1,830.8
1,849.9

17.8
15.3

98.6
100.0

n
m

I

2,293.7
2,324.4
2,387.3
2,404.5

I

2,396.9

n

"

'Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.)

2.7
2.7

-11.6
-14.7
-16.2
-24.0
-43.1
-43.0
-24.6

33.8
34.2

1,604.9
1,662.8

-4.6
-6.6
-20.0
-40.0

96.7
120.6
151.6
178.5
205.1
209.6
199.4
207.5

95.1
98.8

2,122.3
2,199.2

adjustment

46.5
51.2
60.2
76.1
84.5
87.2
102.5
121.7
153.8
187.7
235.7

20.3
19.2

m
IV

54.4
58.1
61.0
62.2

Net
interest

86.6
100.6
125.6
136.7
132.1
166.3
194.7
229.1
252.7
242.4
232.1

65.4
75.0
84.8
92.2
100.2
96.9
100.7

15.0
18.7
32.8
26.5
24.6
19.1
19.1
26.3
31.9
19.4
24.0

Inventory
valuation
adjustment

Profits

Total

96.6
108.3
94.9
110.5
138.1
167.3
192.4
194.8
181.6
190.6

652.2
718.0
801.3
877.5
931.4
1,036.3
1,152.1
1,301.1
1,458.1
1,598.6
1,767.6

Capital
consump-

Total

20.2
21.0
22.6
23.5
23.0
23.5
24.8
26.6
27.9
32.9
33.9

871.5
963.6
1,086.2
1,160.7
1,239.4
1,379.2
1,550.5
1,760.3
1,966.7
2,117.1
2,352.5

IV

1980:

Corporate profits with inv sntory valuatio n and capital consumption
adjustments

Eental
income of
persons
with
capital
consumption
adjustment

83.2

82.0
94.0
105.6

1.3

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1977.

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
durable goods
Period

Total
personal
consumption
expenditures

Total
durable
goods *

Motor
vehicles
and parts

Nondura jle goods
Furniture
and
household
equipment

672.2
737.1
812.0
888.1
976.4
1,084.3
1,204.4
1,346.5
1,507.2
1,667.2
1,843.2

97.2
111.1
123.3
121.5
132.2
156.8
178.2
200.2
213.4
214.3
234.6

45.4
52.4
57.1

37.2
41.7
47.1

50.4
55.8
72.6
84.8
95.7
96.6
89.7
98.6

m
IV

1,682.0
1,745.8

212.7
224.7

n
in

I

IV

1,799.9
1,819.4
1,868.8
1,884.5

1982: I
IP

1,919.4
1,950.8

1971
1972

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1980:
1981:

1

Total includes oth

NOTE.—Series rev'n

ms not shown separately,
inning 1977.




Total
nondurable
goods 1

Food

Clothing
and shoes

Gasoline
and oil

Services

Retail sal es of new
passeng er cars
(millions of units)
Domestics

Imports

213.6
230.6
249.8
275.9
311.6
343.7
375.3

55.4
61.4
64.8
69.6
75.3
82.6
92.4
99.1
104.7
114.6

23.9
25.4
28.6
36.6
40.4
44.0
48.1
51.2
66.6
87.0
96.8

296.2
325.3
355.2
393.2
437.0
485.7
547.4
618.0
693.7
782.5
874.1

9.3
9.6
7.4
7.0
8.5
9.0
9.2
8.2
6.6
6.2

1.6
1.6
1.8
1.4
1.6
1.5
2.1
2.0
2.3
2.4
2.3

673.7
700.5

346.4
358.0

104.8
108.9

87.0
92.8

795.6
820.6

6.4
6.7

2.3
2.5

93.1
93.3
93.8
93.3

720.6
729.6
741.3
746.5

368.8
372.1
378.0
382.3

112.3
114.0
115.9
116.0

95.2
96.7
97.7
97.5

842.4
859.4
886.3
908.3

7.2
5.7
6.8
5.2

2.6
2.3
2.2
2.2

91.0
93.6

749.1
756.5

387.9
396.4

117.5
119.5

95.3
90.5

932.4
951.6

5.8
5.5

2.2
2.0

50.6
53.5
59.1
65.7
72.8
81.8
86.3
93.4

278.8
300.6
333.4
373.4
407.3
441.7
478.8
528.2
600.0
670.4
734.5

88.1
93.7

86.0
90.4

236.9
230.4
241.2
229.6

102.1
94.2
104.0
93.9

237.9
242.6

103.2
105.0

144.2
154.9
172.1
193.7

50.6

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

8.7

SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income rose $8.7 billion (annual rate) in June following a rise of $18.4 billion in May. Wages and salaries
rose $2.1 billion in June, compared with an increase of $12.9 billion in May. Personal interest income rose $3.8
billion in June and transfer payments $0.8 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
2,800

2,800
2,400

2,400

2,000

2,000

1,600

1,600

1,400

1,400

1,200

1,200

1,000

1,000

800

800

600

600

400

400

TRANSFER
PAYMENTS

200

200

160

160

120

120

. I.ii
1976

1978

1977

1979

1980

1981

*SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1982

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Proprietor ' income 3
Period

Total
personal
income

salary
Farm

Nonfarm

Rental
income of
persons 4

Personal
dividend
income

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

1,168.6
1,265.0
1,391.2
1,540.4
1,732.7
1,951.2
2,160.4
2,415.8

765.7
806.4
889.9
983.2
1,106.3
1,237.6
1,356.1
1,493.9

55.8
64.5
75.9
89.4
102.5
114.9
127.2
140.4

26.5
24.6
19.1
19.1
26.3
31.9
19.4
24.0

62.2
65.4
75.0
84.8
92.2
100.2
96.9
100.7

23.5
23.0
23.5
24.8
26.6
27.9
32.9
33.9

29.1
29.9
36.5
39.6
45.3
50.8
55.9
62.5

1981: June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

2,398.4
2,436.3
2,459.6
2,478.6
2,487.2
2,499.0
2,497.6

1,489.6
1,501.3
1,513.6
1,522.1
1,528.9
1,534.2
1,530.5

139.4
140.9
142.2
143.5
144.7
145.8
146.9

23.2
26.1
28.2
27.2
26.3
24.7
22.8

100.5
100.5
100.4
100.3
99.0
100.1
99.5

33.6
33.4
33.4
33.9
33.6
33.6
33.6

1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May"
June p.

2,499.1
2,513.8
2,518.6
2,534.3
2,552.7
2,561.4

1,535.7
1,546.6
1,542.6
1,546.6
1,559.5
1,561.6

148.0
149.1
150.2
151.3
152.5
153.6

19.9
17.3
16.3
15.7
15.2
15.0

98.6
98.4
98.8
99.3
99.9
100.8

33.7
33.9
34.0
34.1
34.2
34.3

Personal
interest
income

1
The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of
employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of
wage accruals over wage disbursements.
^Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workmen's
compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items.
3
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
4
With capital consumption adjustment.




Transfer
pay-

ments 5

Less:
Personal
contributions
for social
insurance

Nonfarm
personal
income 6

141.2
178.3

47.9
50.4

152.8
179.4
218.7
263.4
329.0

194.3
207.9
223.8
250.3
297.2
336.3

55.5
61.1
69.8
81.1
88.7
104.9

1,131,8
1,229.1
1,359.3
1,506.5
1,689.7
1,899.3
2,117.3
2,364.1

62.4
63.6
64.2
64.7
65.0
65.2
65.4

325.2
332.1
340.0
346.9
349.7
351.1
352.1

329.2
344.1
343.9
346.5
347.1
351.5
353.6

104.6
105.6
106.2
106.3
107.0
107.2
106.8

2,347.6
2,382.2
2,403.0
2,422.7
2,431.8
2,444.6
2,444.6

65.6
65.9
65.9
66.1
66.2
66.1

355.5
359.8
363.8
368.0
371.8
375.6

352.4
353.8
357.5
363.9
365.1
365.9

110.3
110.9
110.6
110.8
111.7
111.5

2,448.6
2,465.5
2,470.8
2,486.6
2,505.1
2,513.4

112.4
123.2
132.5

5
Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments.
G
Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor
and agricultural net interest.

NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1977.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME
Real per capita disposable income rose in the second quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

2,400

800

800

DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
11,000
10,000

11,000

4,000

3,000

3,000
1982
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Period

Personal
income

Less:
Personal
tax and
nontax

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Equals:
Disposable
personal
income

Less:
Personal
outlays l

Equals:
Personal
saving

Per c apita
disposable personal
incc me

Current
dollars

1972
dollars

1,065.2
1,168.6
1,265.0
1,391.2
1,540.4
1,732.7
1,951.2
2,160.4
2,415.8

150.7
170.2
168.9
196.8
226.4
258.7
301.0
336.3
386.7

914.5
998.3
1,096.1
1,194.4
1,314.0
1,474.0
1,650.2
1,824.1
2,029.1

Current
dollars

1972
dollars

Do lars

Billions of dol ars
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

Per capitat personal
consuroption
expen litures

835.5
913.2
1,001.8
1,111.9
1,236.0
1,384.6
1,553.5
1,717.9
1,898.9

79.0
85.1

94.3
82.5
78.0
89.4
96.7
106.2
130.2

4,315
4,667
5,075
5,477
5,965

6,621
7,331
8,012
8,827

4,080
4,009
4,051
4,158
4,280
4,441
4,512
4,472
4,538

Percent
change in
real per
capita
disposable

Saving as
percent of
disposable
personal

Population
(thou-2
sands)

Per cent

3,831
4,152
4,521
4,972
5,468
6,048
6,695
7,323
8,018

3,623
3,566
3,609
3,774
3,924
4,057
4,121
4,087
4,123

5.7
-1.7
1.0
2.6
2.9
3.8
1.6
-.9
1.5

8.6
8.5
8.6
6.9
5.9
6.1
5.9
5.8
6.4

211,939
213,898
215,981
218,086
220,289
222,629
225,106
227,654
229,872

Seas jnally adju sted annual rates

1980: HI
IV

2,185.3
2,260.0

339.7
357.1

1,845.5
1,902.9

1,732.5
1,797.6

113.1
105.3

8,095
8,325

4,466
4,487

7,378
7,638

4,071
4,117

3.9
1.9

6.1
5.5

227,978
228,579

1981: I

2,330.0
2,380.6
2,458.2
2,494.6

371.2
384.2
398.1
393.2

1,958.7
1,996.5
2,060.0
2,101.4

1,852.8
1,874.5
1,925.7
1,942.7

105.9
122.0
134.4
158.6

8,551
8,698
8,951
9,107

4,519
4,516
4,557
4,559

7,858
7,926
8,120
8,167

4,152
4,115
4,134
4,088

2.9
-.3
3.7
.2

5.4
6.1
6.5
7.5

229,053
229,539
230,145
230,751

2,510.5
2,549.5

393.4
397.5

2,117.1
2,151.9

1,977.9
2,009.9

139.1

9,155
9,287

4,527
4,553

8,300
8,419

4,104
4,127

-2.8
2.3

6.6
6.6

231,246
231,715

n
m
IV

1982: I p

n

142.0

'Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners {net}.
2
Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages
for the period.




NOTE,—Series revised beginning 1977 for current dollars and beginning 1973 for deflators and
1972 dollars.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).

FARM INCOME
In the fourth quarter of 1981, gross and net farm income each declined $2.7 billion (annual rate) from their third
quarter levels. Data are not yet available for 1982.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

(RATIO SCALE)

I 200

200 I

100

100

GROSS FARM INCOME

80

80

60

60

40 NET FARM INCOME

„ t-

v

20

J

I
1973

J

L
1974

1975

L

I

I I

1980

1978

1976

20

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

1981

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVfSERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Income of farm operators from farmi ng

Net farn income

(iross farm incom 3
Cas h marketing rece pts

Total '

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

Total

Livestock and
products

98.0
101.0
101.9
108.6
127.3
151.3
150.6
166.8

1980: I

n
m
IV

1981: I

n
m
IV

92.4
88.9
95.4
96.2
112.5
131.7
139.5
143.5

41.3
43.1
46.3
47.6

148.6
145.2
153.2
155.4
161.8
164.7
171.5
168.8

V
f
inventory
changes 2

Current
dollars

1967 dollars 3

72.0
75.8
83.3
90.2

26.0
25.2
18.7
18.4

58.8
68.6
67.8
68.5

49.0
48.6
53.7
63.1
71.7
75.0

1.6
3.4
2.4
1.0
1.1
5.6
4.3
5.5

100.6
119.0
130.5
141.6

26.7
32.4
20.1
25.1

135.3
134.3
143.6
144.8

66.7
64.4
69.3
70.8

68.6
69.9
74.3
74.0

-1.4
4.2
-6.0
-5.6

125.7
128.7
132.0
135.4

22.9
16.5
21.2
20.0

9.5
6.8
8.5
7.8

142.5
142.3
146.7
142.5

67.9
69.4
71.0
65.7

74.6
72.9
75.7
76.8

2.5
5.3
7.2
7.0

139.0
141.0
143.2
143.2

22.8
23.7
28.3
25.6

8.6
8.8
10.2
9.1

'Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash
income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms.
2
Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average
prices during the year.




Crops

Production
expenses

51.1
45.8

3

Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index (Department of Labor).

NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1970.
Source: Department of Agriculture, except as noted.

17.6
15.6
11.0
10.2
13.6
14.9

8.2
9.2

CORPORATE PROFITS
In the first quarter of 1982 corporate profits before tax fell $44.9 billion (annual rate) while after-tax profits
declined $29.0 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

320

320

280

280

240

120

80

40

40

1974

1975

1981

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1982

COUNCSL Of

ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Pr ofits {before t&x) with inve ntory valuation adjustmen t >

Profits after ta X

Doinestic industi•ies
Period

Total

1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

82.2
87.8

155.9
158.1

58.7

59.6

97.3
98.5

-41.1
-45.5

161.6
146.2
150.8
144.9

61.5
64.0
66.8
68.1

100.1
82.2
84.0
76.9

~35.5

216.5

91.5
79.2
82.4
71.6

171.6

55.8

115.9

68.8
69.3

47.0

-4.4
6.3

167.0
159.0
168.5
153.3

90.3
88.9
92.2
73.7

33.0
32.1
33.0
35.7

253.1

210.3
199.4

26.8
22.7
20.8
20.4

167.2

150.3

20.0

130.4

57.7

31.9

See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption s
Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.
Includes industries not shown separately.




-6.6
-20.0
-40.0
-11.6
-14.7
-16.2
-24.0
-43.1
-43.0
-24.6

193.8
181.7
189.3
173.7

22.4
26.6
26.9
27.1
24.6
33.4

Inventory
valuation
adjustment

26.1
34.5
49.6
55.2
50.7
65.1
81.2
98.9
112.4
99.7
85.8

238.1

202.6

Undistributed
profits

22.9
24.4
27.0
29.9
30.8
37.4
40.8
47.0
52.7
58.1
65.1

24.4
27.3

217.6

Dividends

49.0
58.9
76.6
85.1
81.5
102.5
122.0
145.9
165.1
157.8
150.9

70.0
78.1

197.0

60.8
70.0
76.0

Total

37.5
41.6
49.0
51.6
50.6
63.8
72.7
83.2
87.6
84.7
81.2

140.3
146.1

1981: I

1

11.7
13.4
13.9
12.5
21.3

27.2
29.4

200.4

3

34.1
40.7

167.5
175.5

207.5

74.9

Tax
liability

sale and
retail
trade

45.5
39.0
52.6
69.2
78.3
86.9
85.6
74.5
86.3

1980: HI
IV

2

Manufacturing

65.4
95.8
120.3
140.3
154.4
148.6
140.0
162.0

199.4

1982: I
II"

Total 3

14.1
15.3
15.9
15.0
11.8
17.1
23.1
31.0
30.3
29.2
22.7

209.6

IV

Financial

85.3
92.0
80.4
107.6
137.4
163.4
185.4
179.0
169.1
184.6

82.0
94.0
105.6
96.7
120.6
151.6
178.5
205.1

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975

n
m

Profits
before tax

Nonfinancial
Total 2

86.6
100.6
125.6
136.7
132.1
166.3
194.7
229.1
252.7
242.4

232.1
245.9
225.4
233.3

NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1977.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

-4.6

-22.8
-23.0
-17.1

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
According to preliminary estimates for the second quarter, business fixed investment declined $3.0 billion (annual
rate) from its first quarter level and residential investment outlays rose $1.3 billion. There was a $19.7 billion
decrease in inventories following a $35.6 billion decrease in the first quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS Of DOLLARS

550

550
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

500

500
450

450
PRIVATE DOMESTIC
INVESTMENT

400

400

350

350

300

300
NONRESIDENTIAL
-FIXED INVESTMENT-

250

250
200

200
RESIDENTIAL
-FIXED INVESTMENT-

150

150
100

100
^CHANGE IN BUSINESS_
INVENTORIES

50
,

50

«»"*..
••'
'••,

,.--

0

, , i "»
, ." ' ,

x

0

*'*.rt,...»

-50

-50

1974

1976

1975

1978

1977

1979

1982

1981

1980

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

private
domestic
investment

Total

166.4
195.0
229.8
228.7
206.1
257.9
324.1
386.6
423.0
402.3
471.5

107.9
121.0
143.3
156.6
157.7
174.1
205.2
248.9
290.2
309.2
346.1

Structures

Producers'
durable

Total

51.0
55.9
55.4
58.8
64.4
78.7
98.3
110.5
129.7

67.4
76.9
92.3
100.7
102.3
115.3
140.8
170.2
191.9
198.6
216.4

50.9
63.8
68.0
57.9
55.3
72.0
95.8
111.2
118.6
103.2
104.9

40.5
44.1

Change ir business
mven tories

Residential fix ed investment

Nonresk ential fixed in vestment
Period

Nonfarm
structures

Farm
structures

Producers'
durable
equipment

Total

7.7

54.8
52.4
68.8
92.0
107.0
114.0
98.3
99.7

-.7
.7
1.3
1.0
1.1
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.9
2.1

1.3
1.5
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.9
3.0
3.2

10.2
18.5
14.1
-6.9
11.8
23.0
26.5
14.3
-10.0
20.5
-21.2
-17.7

48.9
61.5
65.6

0.7

Nonfarm
6.4
9.6

15.2
16.0
-10.5
13.9
21.9
25.4
8.6

57
15.0

1980:

HI
IV

384.1
410.3

307.8
317.5

109.5
112.6

198.2
204.9

97.6
110.5

93.5
105.4

1.0
2.0

3.0
3.1

1981:

I
II
Ill
IV

455.7
475.5
486.0
468.9

330.0
341.3
353.0
360.2

119.6
127.0
132.7
139.6

210.4
214.3
220.2
220.6

113.6
109.5
101.2
95.5

109.1
104.7
95.6
89.4

1.3
1.6
2.4
2.9

3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2

12.2
24.6
31.8
13.2

10.0
19.3
24.6

I
II"

414.8
429.1

357.0
354.0

141.4
143.2

215.6
210.8

93.4
94.7

87.9
88.7

2.4
2.8

3.1
3.2

-35.6
-19.7

36.0
-19.2

1982:

NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1977.




Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

-15.4
-12.3

6.0

EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT—NONFARM
BUSINESS
According to the Commerce Department April-May survey, nonfarm business spending for new plant and
equipment for the year 1982 is expected to be 2.2 percent above 1981. Spending in 1981 was 8.7 percent above
1980.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS {RATIO SCALE)
500

500

400

400

300

200

40

40

30

30
1974
V

1975

1976

1982

1981

1979

1978

SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Billions of dollars; quarterly date at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Plant and equip ment
Period

Total

Plant

a anufacturin g

Equip-

ment
Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable
goods

Total

Mining

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982 4

156.98
157.71
171.45
198.08
231.24
270.46
295.63
321.49
328.60

64.29
65.21
71.20
80.31
92.70
105.73
117.55
133.46

92.69
92.50
100.25
117.77
138.54
164.73
178.08
188.04

53.21
54.92
59.95
69.22
79.72
98.68
115.81
126.79
127.29

27.44
26.33
28.47
34.04
40.43
51.07
58.91
61.84
61.17

25.76
28.59
31.47
35.18
39.29
47.61
56.90
64.95
66.12

103.78
102.79
111.50
128.87
151.52
171.77
179.81
194.70
201.31

7.44
9.24
10.21
11.38
13.51
16.86
17.24

1981: I
II
HI
IV

312.24
316.73
328.25
327.83

128.57
131.05
136.40
136.67

183.67
185.68
191.85
191.17

124.50
125.49
130.11
126.91

61.24
63.10
62.58
60.78

63.27
62.40
67.53
66.14

187.74
191.24
198.13
200.92

1982:

327.72
323.75
328.04
334.78

139.49

188.23

128.32
125.69
128.55
127.01

60.84
60.67
61.44
61.82

67.48
65.02
67.11
65.19

199.40
198.07
199.48
207.78

I
II 4
III 4
IV4

1
Wholesale and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and personal, business, and professional services.
2
"Other" consists of construction; social services and membership organizations; and forestry,
Fisheries, and agricultural services.

10



Starts of
plant and

Nonmanu facturing
Transportation

Public
utilities

and
services l

nication
and
other 2

manufac-

10.68
12.35
12.09
12.05
12.57

19.83
19.98
22.37
26.79
29.95
33.96
35.44
38.40
39.55

47.79
46.23
49.30
56.54
68.66
79.26
81.79
86.33
88.79

23.30
21.80
23.51
26.90
32.02
34.83
36.99
41.06
43.15

61.24
56.51
59.38
77.40
88.16
112.98
123.32
135.19

16.20
16.80
17.55
16.81

11.74
11.70
11.61
13.12

36.05
37.84
39.55
39.74

83.43
85.88
87.55
88.33

40.32
39.02
41.89
42.92

35.41
32.90
33.33
33.68

17.60
16.33
16.71
18.29

11.99
12.01
12.97
13.34

40.12
40.04
38.25
40.05

87.80
87.62
88.07
91.16

41.89
42.08
43.48
44.94

27.73

4.62
6.10

8.23
8.68
8.89
9.40

3
Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during given period,
4
Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in !ate April and May 1982, corrected for
biases.
_,
_
, _,
_
,_
. , , .
source: Department of Commerce, nureau of Economic Analysis.

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE
Seasonally adjusted employment fell 353,000 in June and unemployment fell 122,000.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

112

112
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

108

108

104

104
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE

......•••"V--.......,,

100

100

96

96

,

92

88

EMPLOYMENT

92

88

„....„......•-••-.„,

84

84

80

80

1974

1982

* ] 6 Y E A R S OF AGE AND OVER.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted]
Unemp oyment

Civilian e mployment
employment

tional
population

Period

158,294
161,166
164,027
166,951
169,848
172,272

1976
1977
1978*
1979

1980
1981

88,752
92,017
96,048
98,824
99,303
100,397

Unemployment

7,406
6,991
6,202

6,137
7,637
8,273

Total labor
force
(including
Armed
Forces)

Civilian
labor force

98,302
101,142
104,368
107,050
109,042
110,812

96,158
99,009
102,251
104,962
106,940
108,670

Nonagr
Total

Part-time

AgriculTotal

88,752
92,017
96,048
98,824
99,303
100,397

Cnadjusted

3,331
3,283
3,387
3,347
3,364
3,368

Total

15 weeks

participation rate
(percent) 2

economic
reasons 1

85,421
88,734
92,661
95,477
95,938
97,030

3,334
3,369
3,298
3,373
4,064
4,499

7,406
6,991
6,202
6,137
7,637
8,273

2,366
1,942
1,414
1,241
1,871
2,285

62.1
62.8
63.6
64.1
64.2
64.3

Seas onally adjus ted

1981: June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

172,172
172,385
172,559
172,758
172,966
173,155
173,330

101,419
102,612
102,152
100,389
101,028
100,502
99,562

8,485
8,130
7,947
7,884
8,216
8,676
9,013

110,565
110,827
110,978
110,659
111,170
111,430
111,348

108,434
108,688
108,818
108,494
109,012
109,272
109,184

100,430
100,864
100,840
100,258
100,343
100,172
99,613

3,348
3,342
3,404
3,358
3,378
3,372
3,209

97,082
97,522
97,436
96,900
96,965
96,800
96,404

4,033
4,374
4,350
4,656
5,009
5,026
5,288

8,004
7,824
7,978
8,236
8,669
9,100
9,571

2,363
2,170
2,217
2,248
2,292
2,364
2,372

64.2
64.3
64.3
64.1
64.3
64.4
64.2

1982:

173,495
173,657
173,843
174,020
174,201
174,364

97,831
97,946
98,471
98,858
99,957
100,683

10,183
10,378
10,290
9,957
9,957
10,886

111,038
111,333
111,521
111,824
112,841
112,364

108,879
109,165
109,346
109,648
110,666
110,191

99,581
99,590
99,492
99,340
100,117
99,764

3,411
3,373
3,349
3,309
3,488
3,357

96,170
96,217
96,144
96,032
96,629
96,406

5,071
5,563
5,717
5,834
5,763
5,444

9,298
9,575
9,854
10,307
10,549
10,427

2,399
2,724
2,954
3,015
3,286
3,673

64.0
64.1
64.2
64.3
64.8
64.4

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June

1
Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc.
2
Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over.

96-956 O - 82 - 2




* Data beginning 1978 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of revisions in the household survey, which added about 250,000 to labor force and to employment.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

11

SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
In June the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at the May rate, 9.5 percent.
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

25

25

1*
,'
1

20
«
•

» /
^-/*\ /
»
'

1* Y*iJ

,
'

t\

/».

v

"\J\

\*

TEENAGERS
(16-19)

10

10

WOMEN 20 YEARS
AND OVER

y

N—'X.
""%«,

^S$
,.., ..- - '
...„,. • •

\
MEN 20 YEARS
Ah4D OVER

1 1111111111

i iiii Iil il1

ill
1979

1978

1982

S

J^~ ^"*'*i ••-../NX

ii

ii
1981

1980

'UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

ii

ii
1982

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
TJnemployment rate (p< rcent of civi lan labor for *e in group)

By race

B y sex and ag e
Period

1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981:

Men
20 years
and over

Women
20 years
and over

Both
sexes
16-19
years

White

% selected gro jps

Black and
other

Experienced
wage and
salary
workers

Married
men,
spouse
present

Women
who
maintain
families

Full-time
workers

Part-time
workers

Labor
force
time lost
(percent) l

5.9
5.2
4.3
4.2
5.9
6.3

7.4
7.0
6.0
5.7
6.4
6.8

19.0

13.1
13.1
11.9
11.3
13.1
14.2

7.3
6.6
5.6
5.5
6.9
7.3

10.1

3.6
2.8
2.8
4.2
4.3

9.4
8.5
8.3
9.2
10.4

7.3
6.6
5.6
5.3
6.9
7.3

10.1

17.8
16.4
16.1
17.8
19.6

7.0
6.2
5.2
5.1
6.3
6.7

4.2

7.1
6.1
5.8
7.1
7.6

9.9
9.0
8.8
8.8
9.4

8.3
7.6
6.5
6.3
7.9
8.5

7.4
7.2
7.3
7.6
8.0
8.3
8.8

6.1
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.7
7.1
7.9

6.6
6.7
6.6
6.9
7.0
7.2
7.4

19.2
18.7
19.0
19.7
20.4
21.4
21.5

6.4
6.3
6.2
6.6
7.0
7.4
7.7

14.2

13.8
14.7
14.8
15.2
15.2
15.7

7.0
6.8
6.9
7.3
7.6
8.0
8.5

4.2
3.9
4.0
4.4
4.8
5.2
5.7

10.7
11.2
10.1
10.7
10.6
10.8
10.5

7.1
6.8
6.9
7.3
7.7
8.1
8.7

9.2
9.3
9.6
9.6
9.5
10.2
9.2

7.9
7.9
7.9
8.5
9.1
9.5
10.1

8.5
8.8
9.0
9.4
9.5
9.5

7.5
7.6
7.9
8.2
8.4
8.7

7.2
7.6
7.9
8.3
8.3
8.1

21.7
22.3
21.9
23.0
23.1
22.3

7.5
7.7
7.9
8.4
8.5
8.4

15.1
15.9
16.6
16.9
17.2
17.1

8.2
8.4
8.8
9.2
9.3
9.2

5.3
5.3
5.5
6.0
6.1
6.5

10.4
10.2
10.6
11.5
11.8
12.4

8.4
8.5
8.9
9.2
9.2
9.4

9.6
10.8
10.0
10.9
10.5
9.8

10.0
9.8
10.4
10.4
11.1
10.2

7.7

June
July

Aug
Sept

Oct
Nov
Dec

1982:

Total
(all
civilian
workers)

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June

1
Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours.

12



Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE PROGRAMS
In June, the percentage of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 15 weeks fell again, and
the percentage out of work for 15 weeks and longer periods rose.
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*

FOR UNEMPLOYMENT

60
JOB LOSERS

-

50 -

40

-

REENTRANTS

30 -

V-.
20

20

JOB LEAVERS

•K'VW
fi l*v»>"'*1**""'* '

;v»i^r-*>»««'
10

10 -

-

I

m+£#£*

\

NEW ENTRANTS

1982

1978

1978

1979

1981

1980

1982

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

TJnem
,
(thousands)

Percent listribution of unemplo >rnent by
dura ion 1
Less
than 5
weeks

5-14
weeks

15-26
weeks

27
weeks
and
over

Percent distribution of unemplo yment by
rea on l

Job
losers

Job
leavers

Reentrants

New
entrants

Sta te
prop-ams
Insured
unemployment

Initial
claims

Insured
unemployment, all
regular
programs
(unadjusted) 2

Special
unemployment
benefit
claims
(unadjusted) 3

Wee kly average , thousands

6,991
6,202
6,137
7,637
8,273

1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

41.8

46.2
48.1
43.1
41.7

30.5
31.0
31.7
32.3
30.7

13.1
12.4
11.5
13.8
13.6

14.7
10.4
8.7
10.7
14.0

45.3
41.7
42.9
51.7
51.6

13.0
14.1
14.3
11.7
11.2

28.1
29.9
29.4
25.2
25.4

13.6
14.3
13.3
11.4
11.9

2,655
2,359
2,434
3,350
3,048

375
346
388
488
460

3,308
2,645
2,592
3,837
3,410

1981:

June....
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

8,004
7,824
7,978
8,236
8,669
9,100
9,571

40.8
42.6
41.5
42.2
42.7
42.3
42.8

30.0
29.6
30.8
30.9
30.9
31.7
32.0

15.2
14.0
13.5
13.7
13.4
13.5
12.6

14.0
13.8
14.2
13.2
13.0
12.5
12.6

51.6
49.5
51.4
52.8
52.4
53.6
56.1

11.1
11.9
11.0
11.0
11.2
10.0
9.7

25.2
26.6
25.5
24.6
25.0
25.5
23.5

12.0
12.0
12.2
11.7
11.5
10.9
10.7

2,897
2,767
2,844
2,961
3,159
3,428
3,583

407
397
435
482
522
541
567

2,949
3,012
2,874
2,680
2,753
3,228
3,935

1982:

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June ....

9,298
9,575
9,854
10,307
10,549
10,427

41.3
39.6
38.8
38.5
37.0
33.2

32.9
31.9
31,2
32.1
31.7
32.4

13.0
15.1
16.3
14.7
15.6
17.1

12.8
13.4
13.7
14.7
15.8
17.3

56.7
54.3
57.4
57.4
56.9
59.6

9.1
10.2
9.0
9.1
8.4
7.7

22.7
24.0
22.9
23.0
23.5
22.4

11.5
11.6
10.7
10.5
11.1
10.3

3,546
3,484
3,736
4,022
4,032
4,140

562
517
594
579
595
555

572

4,681
4,723
4,892
4,760
4,388

1
Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding.
2
Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen
(UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended
benefit programs. Does not include FSB (Federal supplemental benefits) and SUA (special unemployment assistance).




3

FSB and SUA. These programs started January 1975 and regular reporting began March 1975.

Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration).

13

NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
In June, total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey declined 141,000 from its May level.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

MILLIONS OF PERSONS' (ENLARGED SCALE)
22
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE

90
20

ALL NONAGRICULTURAL
ESTABLISHMENTS

80

.. .- '

70
GOVERNMENT
'

60

SERVICE-PRODUCING
SERVICE-PI
INDUSTRIES

22
MANUFACTURING

50

20

40 -

CONSTRUCTION
_GOODS-PRODUC1NG
.INDUSTRIES

•••-o
20
1979

1980

1981

1978

1982

1979

1980

1981

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1982

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of wage and salary workers;l seasonally adjusted]

Service-p roducing ind

Goods- >roducing inc ustries
Total
nonagri-

M anufacturing

Period
employment

Total

2

Construction

1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

82,471
86,697
89,823
90,406
91,105

24,346
25,585
26,461
25,658
25,481

3,851
4,229
4,463
4,346

1981: June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

91,286
91,396
91,322
91,363
91,224
90,996
90,642

1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May "....
June p ...

90,460
90,459
90,304
90,083
90,151
90,010

Total

Durable

goods

Nondurable
goods




Wholesale and
retail
trade

Goveroment

Finance,

insurance,
and real
estate

Services
Federal

4,467
4,724
4,975

5,157

18,516
19,542
20,192
20,310
20,551

5,160
5,301

16,252
17,112
17,890
18,592

65,630
65,678
65,685
65,780
65,831
65,820
65,734

5,162
5,168
5,168
5,181
5,162
5,150
5,128

20,590
20,620
20,650
20,660
20,654
20,623
20,524

5,302
5,311
5,319
5,328
5,325
5,324
5,331

65,776
65,828
65,854
65,794
65,889
65,957

5,125
5,115
5,100
5,094
5,101
5,076

20,630
20,670
20,655
20,584
20,658
20,643

5,326
5,326
5,336
5,335
5,340
5,349

11,597
12,274
12,760
12,187
12,117

8,086
8,231
8,280
8,098
8,056

58,125
61,113
63,363
64,748
65,625

4,713
4,923
5,136
5,146

4,176

19,682
20,505
21,040
20,285
20,173

25,656
25,718
25,637
25,583
25,393
25,176
24,908

4,185
4,175
4,146
4,124
4,101
4,071
4,026

20,334
20,379
20,311
20,267
20,097
19,903
19,676

12,246
12,266
12,228
12,184
12,059
11,901
11,724

8,088
8,113
8,083
8,083
8,038
8,002
7,952

24,684
24,631
24,450
24,289
24,262
24,053

3,966
3,974
3,934
3,938
3,994
3,952

19,517
19,454
19,319
19,169
19,114
18,971

11,622
11,575
11,490
11,375
11,337
11,254

7,895
7,879
7,829
7,794
7,777
7,717

1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who
worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month.
Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces.
Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultura! employment of the
civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic
servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial dis-

14

Total

Transportation and
public
utilities

istries

15,303

2,727
2,753
2,773

State
and
local
12,399

2,866
2,772

12,919
13,174
13,375
13,253

18,556
18,615
18,654
18,707
18,773
18,815
18,834

2,777
2,775
2,769
2,764
2,757
2,749
2,756

13,243
13,189
13,125
13,140
13,160
13,159
13,161

18,831
18,867
18,904
18,929
18,948
18,972

2,741
2,737
2,736
2,730
2,734
2,724

13,123
13,113
13,123
13,122
13,108
13,193

putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample
of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
Includes mining, not shown separately.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Average giross hourly
earn mgs

Average weekly
hours
Period

Manufa cturing

Total
private
nonagricultural *

Total
private
nonagricultural 1

Overtime

Total

1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

36.1
36.1
36.0
35.8
35.7
35.3
35.2

1981: June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

35.2
35.3
35.2
35.0
35.1
35.1
35.0

40.1
40.0
39.9
39.4
39.5
39.3
39.1

3.8
3.3
2.6
3.1
3.5
3.6
3.3
2.8
2.8
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.4

1982:

34.4
35.0
34.9
34.9
34.9
34.8

37.6
39.4
39.0
39.0
39.1
39.1

2.3
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.4

40.7
40.0
39.5
40.1

36.9
36.5

1973
1974
1975
1976

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May p
June*1

40.3
40.4
40.2
39.7
39.8

Manufacturing

Adjust* d hourly earnings index — total private
nonagric ultural 2
Percent chang e from a year
earli , r 4 5

Ind ex,
1977 = 100

Current
dollars

1977
dollars 3

$3.94
4.24
4.53
4.86
5.25
5.69
6.16
6.66
7.25

$4.09
4.42
4.83
5.22
5.68
6.17
6.70
7.27
7.99

74.1
80.0
86.7
92.9
100.0

7.23
7.27
7.34
7.37
7.40
7.45
7.46
7.52
7.53
7.54
7.59
7.65
7.66

Current
dollars

1977 dollars

108.1
116.8
127.3
138.9

98.3
97.6
99.0
100.0
100.5
97.4
93.5
92.6

7.2
7.6
8.1
8.0
9.0
9.1

-0.1
2.8
— .7
1.4
1.0
.5
-3.1
-4.0
-1.0

7.99
8.03
8.09
8.14
8.16
8.20
8.20

138.4
139.1
140.5
141.4
142.0
143.0
143.5

92.9
92.2
92.5
92.1
92.1
92.3
92.3

8.9
8.8
9.3
9.3
8.6
8.4
8.2

-.6
-1.7
— 1.4
— 1.4
-1.4
-.9
-.4

8.38
8.34
8.37
8.44
8.48
8.53

144.9
145.0
145.4
146.3
147.6
147.9

92.9
92.8
93.3
93.7
93.7
92.9

8.3
7.5
7.2
7.2
7.3
6.9

.1
.1

101.1

6.2
8.0
8.4

.6
.8
.8
.0

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Percent el ange from
a year earlier,
total private nonagricultural 5

Average gross weekly eg rmngs
Period

Total private
nonagric ultural
Current dollars

Manufacturing

I

1977 dollars 3

Construction

Wholesale and
retail trade

Current dollars

$145.39
154.76
163.53
175.45
189.00
203.70
219.91
235.10
255.20

$198.35
190.12
184.16
186.85
189.00
189.31
183.41
172.74
170.13

$166.46
176.80
190.79
209.32
228.90
249.27
269.34
288.62
318.00

$235.89
249.25
266.08
283.73
295.65
318.69
342.99
367.78
398.52

$111.76
119.02
126.45
133.79
142.52
153.64
164.96
176.46
190.95

1981: June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

254.50
256.63
258.37
257.95
259.74
261.50
261.10

170.92
170.18
170.09
168.05
168.44
168.82
167.91

320.40
321.20
322.79
320.72
322.32
322.26
320.62

391.65
400.34
401.12
386.54
407.01
416.64
415.14

189.71
191.27
192.56
193.56
192.96
194.53
194.56

1982:

258.69
263.55
263.15
264.89
266.99
266.57

165.93
168.62
168.90
169.69
169.41
167.44

315.09
328.60
326.43
329.16
331.57
333.52

405.50
420.71
420.29
421.77
432.00
422.78

193.05
195.20
195.23
195.89
198.40
198.10

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977

1978
1979
1980
1981

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May"
June p

1

4

2

5

Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.
Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing.
Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index on a 1977 = 100 t
Revised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 19783




1977 dollars

Current dollars

6.2
6.4
5.7
7.3
7.7
7.8
8.0
6.9
8.5
9.2
10.0

9.6
8.4
7.9
7.3
6.1
3.7
6.2
4.8
4.5
5.2
4.6

0.0
-4.1
3.1
1.5
1.2
.2

3.1
-5.8
-1.5

-.3
-.7
1.1
-2.2

2.0
-1.8
-2.4

4.1
-1.1

1.6
-1.7
-1.2
-2.1

Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places.
Based on unadjusted data.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

15

PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR
Period

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Compens ation per
hoi r 3

Output per hour of all
pers ons

Hours of all
perseHIS 2

Out]nit '

Honfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Implic t price
4
defla tor

Unit .abor
CO st
Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

] 977 = 100; quarterly ( ata seasonsilly adjuste<

1968
1969

76.8
79.0

76.6
78.8

90.1
92.5

88.2
91.1

85.3

85.5

86.8
86.5

50.7
54.2

51.5
54.8

59.4
63.4

59.3
63.4

60.2
63.2

60.4
63.3

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

78.4
80.7
86.1
91.8
90.1

78.0
80.3
85.8
91.7
90.0

90.9
90.5
93.1

96.8
97.3

89.8
89.5
92.3
96.2
96.7

86.2
89.2
92.4
94.9
92.6

86.8
89.7
93.0
95.4
93.1

58.2
62.0
66.1
71.4
78.0

58.7
62.5
66.7
71.7
78.5

67.5
69.5
71.5
75.2
84.2

67.6
69.7
71.7
75.2
84.3

66.0
69.0
71.3
75.2
82.2

66.3
69.3
71.3
74.0
81.4

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

88.4

93.8
100.0
105.5
107.8

88.0
93.7
100.0
105.7
108.0

93.3
96.0
100.0
104.9
108.2

92.7
95.8
100.0
105.0
108.7

94.7
97.6
100.0
100.6
99.6

94.9
97.8
100.0
100.6
99.3

85.5
92.9
100.0
108.6
119.1

86.0
93.0
100.0
108.6
118.8

90.3
95.1
100.0
108.0
119.5

90.6
95.1
100.0
108.0
119.6

90.2
94.7
100.0
107.5
117.2

89.8
94.6
100.0
107.1
116.5

1980
1981

106.2
108.9

106.3
108.6

107.4
108.2

108.0
108.7

98.9
100.7

98.5
99.9

131.4
144.1

130.9
143.6

132.9
143.1

133.0
143.8

128.3
140.4

128.3
140.8

m
IV

105.3
107.0

105.3
107.3

106.5
107.7

107.0
108.2

98.9
99.3

98.4
99.2

133.1
136.1

132.6
135.7

134.7
137.0

134.7
136.8

129.9
132.8

129.9
132.7

n
m

I

IV

109.1
109.1
109.6
107.8

109.2
109.0
109.1
107.1

108.3
108.3
108.5
107.5

108.8
109.0
109.1
108.1

100.7
100.7
101.0
100.2

100.4
100.0
100.0
99.1

140.0
142.5
145.6
148.2

139.5
142.0
145.1
147.7

139.0
141.5
144.2
147.9

139.0
141.9
145.1
149.0

136.5
138.8
141.9
144.6

136.5
138.9
142.3
145.5

I
H"

106.3
106.7

106.0
106.4

105.8
105.5

106.3
106.1

100.5
101.2

99.7
100.3

151.7
154.3

151.3
153.5

151.0
152.5

151.7
153.1

146.0
147.8

146.6
148.4

1980:
1981:

1982:

•

•

Percent ch ange; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted armual rates

1968
1969

5.1
2.9

5.3
2.9

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

-.8
3.0
6.6
6.6
-1.9

-1.0
2.9
6.9
6.9
1.9

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

•
-1.9
6.1
6.6
5.5
2.3

1980
1981
1980:
1981:

3.3
.2

3.3
-.3

7.8
7.0

7.5
6.5

4.4
6.7

4.1

6.8

4.0
4.9

4.0
4.7

.3
3.3
3.7
2.5
-2.4

7.4
6.5
6.6
8.0
9.3

7.0
6.6
6.7
7.6
9.4

6.5
2.9
2.9
5.2
11.9

6.6
3.2
2.9
4.9
12.1

4.5
4.4
3.4
5.4
9.4

4.8
4.5
3.0
3.7
10.1

.5
2.9
3.9
.5

-.4

3.1
4.3
.5

.9
3.5
3.6
2.6
-2.3

-2.2
6.5
6.7
5.7
2.2

-4.1
3.0
4.1
4.9
3.2

—4.1
3.4
4.4
5.0
3.5

2.3
3.1
2.4
.6
.9

2.0
3.0
2.2
.6
1.3

9.6
8.6
7.7
8.6
9.7

9.6
8.2
7.5
8.6
9.3

7.2
5.3
5.1
8.0
10.7

7.4
5.0
5.2
8.0
10.7

9.7
5.0
5.6
7.5
9.0

10.3
5.3
5.7
7.1
8.8

2.5

-1.5
2.2

-.7
.7

.7
.7

-.7
1.8

-.9
1.4

10.4
9.6

10.2
9.7

11.2
7.7

11.2
8.1

9.4
9.5

10.2
9.7

2.1
6.8

2.7
7.8

.5
4.7

7
4.6

2.6
2.0

3.4
3.1

10.1
9.4

10.4
9.8

7.3
7.2

6.8
6.5

10.0
9.3

8.6
8.9

7.9
— .1
1.9
-6.4

7.2
-.8
.3
-7.1

2.1
-3.6

2.2
.5
.6
3.7

5.6
.0
1.1
2.9

4.9
-1.3
-.3
-3.5

11.7
7.5
9.0
7.4

11.8
7.1
9.0
7.3

5.7
7.5
7.8
10.6

6.6
8.6
9.3
11.2

11.6
6.6
9.3
8.0

12.1
7.1
10.2
9.2

-5.5
1.7

-4.2
1.8

-6.3
-1.1

6.6
-.4

.8
2.9

2.6
2.3

9.6
7.1

10.1
6.2

8.6
4.1

7.4
3.8

3.8
5.2

3.3
5.0

| K

El
IV
I

n
m

IV....,

1982:

-1.7

2.0
3.2
1.3

1.7
2.6

I

IP

1

.8

'Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars.
2
Hours of all persons in private industry engaged m the sector, including hours of proprietors and
unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data.
Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private
benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed.
Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.

NOTE.—Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore
may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here.
Series revised beginning 1977 based on revised national income and product accounts and for
earlier periods based on revised measures of labor input.
The word "private" will no longer be used as part of the series title of the business sector measures prepared by the BLS. No change has been made in the defintion or content of the measures
affected by this change in nomeclature.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

16



PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Industrial production fell 0.7 percent in June following declines of 0.6 percent in May and 1.1 percent in April. The
index for June was 9.5 percent below the year earlier level.
INDEX, 1967=100
180

INDEX, 1967=100

(RATIO SCALE)

TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

180

160

(RATIO SCALE!

UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION

160
UTILITIES

140

MINING

120

120
1 I H 1 M

1978

1980

1979

1981

1982

1 I I I rt
1978

100
180

MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION

1980

1981

1982

PERCENT* (RATIO SCALE)

NONDURABLE

100
>

^T^~>"""'"[" \

160

1979

^"1""""""^\

MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE

140

80

120

70

1978

1979

1982

1980

1982

1978

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Seasonally adjusted]

To tal
indu itrial
prodn ction
Index,
1967=100

1967 proportion
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981: June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May "
June"
1
2
3

100.00
117.8
130.5
138.2
146.1
152.5
147.0
151.0
152.9
153.9
153.6
151.6
149.1
146.3
143.4
140.7
142.9
141.7
140.2
139.4
138.4

1tanufacturui

Manufacturing

Percent
change
from year
earlier

-8.9
10.8
5.9
5.7
4.4
-3.6
2.7
8.1
9.7
8.0
5.0
1.7
-1.9
-4.7
-7.1
-5.9
-6.8
7.7
-8.7
9.5

Mining
Total

87.95
116.3
130.3
138.4
146.8
153.6
146.7
150.4
152.4
153.2
153.2
151.1
148.0
145.0
142.0
138.5
140.9
140.1
138.7
138.2
137.3

Durable

Utilities

Nondurable

51.98

35.97

109.3
122.3
130.0
139.7
146.4
136.7
140.5
143.2
143.6
143.4
140.9
137.8
134.4
131.3
127.1
129.3
128.2
126.6
126.4
125.3

126.4
141.8
150.5
156.9
164.0
161.2
164.8
165.8
167.1
167.3
165.9
162.8
160.3
157.4
155.1
157.8
157.3
156.2
155.3
154.6

Output as percent of capacity.
Annual data are averages of four monthly indexes.
A
Q
Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Annual data are averages of quarterly data.




Cap aeity utilizati on rate, perc ent 1

Industry prot uction indexes , 1967=100

6.36
112.8
114.2
118.2
124.0
125.5
132.7
142.2
141.7
146.5
146.0
145.0
145.3
143.3
142.6
144.5
142.4
138.1
133.6
130.2
126.7

Materials
(Federal
Reserve
series)

Federal
Reserve
series

Commerce
series 2

Wharton
series 3

5.69
146.0
151.7
156.5
161.4
166.0
168.3
169.1
172.7
173.1
171.9
167.8
168.1
168.9
168.2
171.8
170.4
170.0
171.0
169.9
168.0

73.4
81.1
82.7
85.6
87.4
80.0
79.9
81.3
81.9
81.6
80.0
77.7
75.5
72.4
71.4
72.9
71.8
70.4
69.6
69.0

72.9
79.5
81.9
84.4
85.7
79.1
78.5
79.6
79.8
79.6
78.3
76.6
' 74.8
73.1
71.1
72.2
71.6
70.7
70.4
69.8

77

78.8

81
83
84
83
78
76
78

84.8
87.3
89.9
91.5
85.5

76

86.2

86.3

72

72

Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau
of Economic Analysis), and Wharton School of Finance.

17

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND
SELECTED MANUFACTURES
[1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted]
Prod ucts
Intermedia te products

Final Products
Period

Equip ment

C onsumer good s
Total
Total

Durable
goods

Materials

Nondurable
goods

Total
Total

Business

Construetion
supplies

Supplementary
group:
Energy
total

1967 proportion

47.83

27.68

7.89

19.79

20.14

12.63

12.89

6.42

39.29

12.23

1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

115.7
124.4
125.1
118.2
127.6
135.9
142.2
147.2
145.3
149.5

124.4
131.5
128.9
124.0
137.1
145.3
149.1
150.8
145.4
147.9

133.8
146.2
135.3
121.4
141.9
154.0
159.2
155.8
136.7
140.5

120.6
125.6
126.3
125.1
135.2
141.9
145.1
148.8
148.9
150.9

103.8
114.5
120.0
110.2
114.6
123.0
132.8
142.2
145.2
151.8

118.0
134.2
142.4
128.2
135.4
147.8
160.3
171.3
173.2
181.1

126.5
137.2
135.3
123.1
137.2
145.1
154.1
160.5
151.9
154.4

128.4
139.8
134.5
116.3
132.6
140.6
151.7
158.0
140.9
141.9.

122.3
133.9
132.4
115.5
131.7
138.6
148.3
156.4
147.6
151.6

125.2
128.3
125.5
125.5
129.1
132.9
135.4
137.9
137.7
137.4

151.4
152.1
151.5
150.0
148.9
147.2
146.3

150.3
150.7
149.6
147.8
146.5
144.0
142.0

147.9
146.5
142.5
140.4
136.3
129.7
123.2

151.2
152.3
152.5
150.8
150.5
149.7
149.5

153.0
154.1
154.0
152.9
152.1
151.5
152.1

183.6
184.8
184.4
182.7
180.5
179.0
179.0

154.9
156.2
156.8
154.6
151.4
148.7
145.9

143.4
144.3
144.0
139.7
135.2
130.1
127.0

154.0
155.3
155.2
152.5
148.5
144.6
139.0

138.0
141.2
140.5
136.8
136.9
137.2
136.7

142.8
144.1
143.3
142.7
142.3
141.3

139.6
141.8
141.5
142.2
143.3
143.4

120.1
125.9
128.1
130.7
133.6
135.9

147.4
148.1
146.8
146.8
147.2
146.4

147.2
147.3
145.9
143.3
140.9
138.3

172.2
171.6
169.0
164.9
160.8
156.4

USA
146.3
145.2
143.5
142.6
141.6

124.2
127.5
125.6
122.9
122.4
121.5

137.2
140.4
138.5
136.1
134.8
133.9

139.5
138.9
137.6
136.9
136.4
135.6

1981:

June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May"
June*1.

[1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted]
Durable m mufactures
Period
Total

Fabricated metal
products

Nonelectrical
machinery

Electrical
machinery
Total

Motor
vehicles
and parts

Lumber
and
products

Apparel
products

Printing
and
publishing

Chemicals and
products

Foods

1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May"
June"

6.57

4.21

5.93

9.15

8.05

9.27

4.50

1.64

3.31

4.72

7.74

8.75

112.1
126.7
123.1
96.4
109.7
111.1
119.9
121.3
102.3
107.9

1967 proportion

1981:

Iron and
steel

* ondurable nanufacture s
Transp artation
equip ment

Primary metals

107.1
122.3
119.8
95.8
104.8
103.8
113.2
113.2
92.4
99.8

112.1
124.7
124.2
109.9
123.9
131.0
141.6
148.5
134.1
136.4

116.0
133.7
140.1
125.1
134.5
143.6
153.6
163.7
162.8
171.2

122.2
143.1
143.8
116.5
134.8
145.4
159.4
175.0
172.8
178.4

108.2
118.3
108.7
97.4
111.1
122.2
132.5
135.4
116.9
116.1

135.8
148.8
128.2
111.1
142.0
161.1
169.9
159.9
119.0
122.3

120.8
126.0
116.2
107.6
123.2
131.2
136.3
136.9
119.3
119.1

109.4
117.3
114.3
107.6
125.7
134.2
134.2
134.4
127.0
120.4

112.7
118.2
118.2
113.3
122.5
127.6
131.5
136.9
139.6
144.2

143.6
154.5
159.4
147.2
170.9
185.7
197.4
211.8
207.1
215.6

116.8
120.9
124.0
123.4
133.0
138.8
142.7
147.5
149.6
152.1

107.4
109.4
113.1
108.6
102.3
96.6
89.6

98.5
99.7
105.1
99.2
92.2
87.2
79.2

139.3
140.1
140.0
136.8
133.8
130.2
126.1

174.1
176.7
176.4
173.9
169.7
167.9
167.4

180.1
180.9
182.6
180.0
179.6
175.7
170.7

123.4
119.8
115.4
114.2
110.6
106.1
103.7

137.5
130.5
123.1
120.4
113.8
105.5
100.4

122.5
122.9
119.1
113.2
109.6
104.7
104.8

121.1
122.6
122.6
122.5
117.8
113.8
114.1

143.1
144.4
146.1
145.9
145.6
143.4
145.3

218.4
221.5
219.2
216.3
208.8
204.6
199.8

151.3
151.6
151.9
150.7
151.4
153.0
152.8

89.7
88.5
83.0
76.5
74.0
70.9

79.6
78.5
73.0
65.1
62.6

120.7
121.4
121.1
119.1
117.3
115.0

160.9
160.0
157.3
153.7
151.4
148.4

168.2
172.9
172.6
172.0
170.9
170.1

96.6
102.0
104.4
105.9
110.0
111.4

90.4
98.6
105.6
110.8
119.8
124.0

99.2
104.9
103.5
103.6
108.3

145.6
146.4
145.9
144.2
143.4
142.5

196.7
201.3
200.3
198.5
195.0

151.1
151.7
150.8
149.4

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

18



NEW CONSTRUCTION
Constructio n contracts 2

Private
Period

Total new
construction
expenditures

Resi iential

r

Total

New housing

Total '

and industrial

Other

Federal,
State, and
local

Total value
index
(1977 = 100)

Commercial
and industrial
floor space
(millions of
square feet)

I illions of dollars

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

135.9
151.1
173.8
205.6
230.4
230.7
238.2

95.1
112.0
135.7
159.7
181.6
175.7
185.2

46.5
60.5
81.0
93.4
99.0
87.3
86.6

20.8
19.9
22.5
29.6
39.9
43.8
51.3

34.4
47.3
65.7
75.8
78.6
63.1
62.7

27.8
31.5
32.2
36.7
42.7
44.7
47.4

66.0
79.0
100.0
114.0
121.0
106.0
107.0

40.9
39.1
38.2
45.9
48.8
55.1
53.0

Seasonally
adjusted

Seasonal ly adjusted annu al rates

555
592
739

977
1,059
904
906
Seasonally
adjusted
annual rates

1981:

May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

240.9
237.5
238.1
235.9
233.5
230.8
230.0
228.8

189.3
185.9
186.9
185.2
182.4
180.0
178.1
176.6

92.2
89.1
87.0
84.1
80.4
78.2
76.2
75.8

69.5
66.8
64.1
60.8
57.1
53.4
50.4
49.4

49.4
50.3
52.0
53.0
53.4
53.2
54.0
53.0

47.6
46.5
47.9
48.2
48.6
48.6
47.9
47.7

51.7
51.7
51.2
50.7
51.1
50.8
51.9
52.2

102
109
99
99
100
101
92
112

1,017
972
882
944
817
891
849
848

1982:

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May p
June "

225.1
222.6
224.6
226.2
227.7
230.7

175.5
173.0
173.6
175.3
179.2
182.8

73.7
69.2
70.0
72.4
75.6
74.8

51.0
49.2
51.0
49.6
51.0
49.1

53.3
54.1
55.0
54.3
53.9
57.8

48.5
49.8
48.6
48.6
49.7
50.2

49.6
49.6
51.0
50.9
48.5
47.8

115
97
105
88
94
118

675
781
758
688
620
816

1
Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately.
2
F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971
for floor space.

NOTE.—Series on new construction expenditures revised beginning 1979.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company, F. W. Dodge Division.

NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES
[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]
New priv ate homes

New private housing units
Period

Units started, bj type of struetim
Total

1974

1,337.7
1,160.4
1,537.5
1,987.1
2,020.3
1,745.1
1,292.2
1,084.2

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

1 unit

888.1
892.2
1,162.4
1,450.9
1,433.3
1,194.1
852.2
705.4

2-4 units

5 or more units

68.1
64.0
85.9
121.7
125.0
122.0
109.5
91.1

381.6
204.3
289.2
414.4
462.0
429.0
330.5
287.7

Units
authorized
1,074.4
939.2
1,296.2
1,690.0
1,800.5
1,551.8
1,190.6
985.5

Units
completed

Homes sold

Homes for
sale at end of
period 1

Vacancy rate
for rental
housing units
(percent) 2

1,728.5
1,317.2
1,377.2
1,657.1
1,867.5
1,870.8
1,501.6
1,265.7

519
549
646
819
817
709
545
436

346
313
353
402
414
3
398
336
272

6.2
6.0
5.6
5.2
5.0
5.4
5.4

5.0

Seasonal ly adjusted annu al rates
1981:

1982:

June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

1,046
1,040
946
899
854
860
882

705
696
614
623
507
554
550

89
88
76
62
78
81
74

252
256
256
214
269
225
258

986
941
878
835
738
743
797

1,353
1,320
1,233
1,202
1,265
1,067
1,114

417
408
364
335
359
388
456

318
312
308
304
291
282
272

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr"
May *
June p

885
945
931
882
1,075
911

592
568
621
566
631
607

70
84
67
64
89
88

223
293
243
252
355
216

803
792
851
879
944
948

1,063
920
926
962
1,107

399
376
380
341
399
343

275
274
269
264
259
255

1

Seasonally adjusted.
2
Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series begins ing 1979 not strictly comparable
with earlier data.
3
New series beginning March 1979.




NOTE.—Units authorized beginning 1978 relate to 16,000
1973-77 are for 14,000 places.

5.0
5.0

5.3
5.1

ait-issuing places; data for

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

19

BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Total and Trade
Business sales rose 2% percent in May while inventories declined $4% million. According to the advance survey,
retail sales fell }l/2 percent in June following a rise of 2% percent in May.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
140

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
600

130

550

•* i '•«
_ " 1
^ "
•** "

TOTAL BUSINESS
INVENTORIES

bOO

V,-X—

450

120
110

^^^0

100

400

350

90

300

„<•250

^ #
^

^

- /\

^~

\

RETAIl SALES

70

TOTAL BlJSINESS
SAL ES

—f

-

60

f
50

200

1979

1980

1982

1980

1978

1982

RATIO*

-

150

-

inn 1 1 1 1 1 1

M 1 ! 1 I 1 1 I M

M

1 1 1 1 1 IM 1 1 1

MI

1 ! 1 ! 1 1 1 i 1

1980

1979

1978

1981

1.20

1982

1978

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Total biisiness 1

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Who esale
Sales

Period
Sales

2

Inven-

Sales

2

Inventory-s ales ratio 4

Re tail

InvenTotal

2

Durable
goods
stores

Inventories

Nondurable goods
stores

Total

Durable
goods
stores

3

Nondurable goods
stores

Total
business 1

Setail

Millions of dollars, seasonally iidjusted

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

177,625
182,230
204,277
229,623
259,046
294,573
321,504
350,622

285,807
288,375
318,544
351,175
397,090
444,132
482,571
520,024

47,748
46,623
50,694
55,987
65,036
76,109
87,931
97,839

56,948
56,697
64,078
72,311
83,891
93,870
104,441
111,179

45,082
49,012
54,781
60,435
67,057
74,529
79,325
86,566

14,118
15,247
18,150
20,724
23,313
25,401
24,716
27,216

30,964
33,765
36,631
39,711
43,744
49,128
54,609
59,350

71,067
71,744
79,273
89,530
102,520
109,228
114,114
125,693

32,861
33,356
37,841
43,135
49,914
53,265
53,747
58,835

38,206
38,388
41,432
46,395
52,606
55,963
60,367
66,858

1.45
1.57
1.48
1.46
1.44
1.43
1.45
1.43

1.48
1.44
1.38
1.40
1.43
1.44
1.41
1.39

1981: May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Get
Nov
Dec

353,398
356,277
355,070
354,594
353,419
346,619
344,913
341,106

497,736
501,382
504,744
509,959
515,387
518,458
521,645
520,024

98,964
98,027
97,445
97,359
97,440
96,249
96,738
94,920

105,349
106,756
105,768
107,516
108,802
108,708
110,243
111,179

86,361
87,299
87,292
87,961
87,823
86,413
86,733
86,572

27,488
27,725
27,759
28,098
27,810
26,354
26,436
26,206

58,873
59,574
59,533
59,863
60,013
60,059
60,297
60,366

118,191
120,010
121,993
123,341
124,376
125,364
125,618
125,693

55,560
56,764
57,865
58,545
58,761
59,014
58,907
58,835

62,631
63,246
64,128
64,796
65,615
66,350
66,711
66,858

1.41
1.41
1.42
1.44
1.46
1.50
1.51
1.52

1.37
1.38
1.40
1.40
1.42
1.45
1.45
1.45

1982:

334,710
341,414
342,339
339,385
348,410

516,440
413,797
512,766
514,882
510,636

94,367
95,854
97,580
94,977
97,035

111,154
108,714
109,369
112,722
111,769

85,320
87,418
87,242
88,294
90,682
89,301

25,316
26,696
26,958
27,984
29,267
28,037

60,004
60,722
60,284
60,310
61.415
61,264

124,131
123,395
123,332
123,175
122,418

57,807
56,957
56,803
56,663
55,925

66,324
66,438
66,529
66,512
66,493

1.54
1.50
1.50
1.52
1.47

1.45
1.41
1.41
1.40
1.35

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May*
June p

'The term "business" also includes manufacturing (see page 21).
Monthly average for year and total for month.
Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted.
4
For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly
data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month.
2
3

20



NOTE.—Total business (and manufacturing) revised beginning 1977.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).

MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
In June, manufacturers' new and unfilled orders and inventories fell, while shipments were unchanged.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE]
320
280 —INVENTORIES

DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)

240
200
160

120;
100

NONDURABLE GOODS
60

40

RATIO

22

INVENTO RY-SHIPM ENTS RAT 0
2.0
1.8
^-V.

1.6

»-,

,

V'-^"^-

—s*

1.4
40

1.2
1978

11111 11111

111111
1978

1982

1979

r^

~^\

hllll
1980

*SEASONAUY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

M

1981

Durable
goods

Nondurable goods

Durable
goods

Total

Nondurable goods

ADVISERS

Ik Manufacturers new orders i

Manufa< 3turers' inven tories 2

Durablf goods
Total

1982

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC

Manufa «turers' shipinents l

Period

1 1 EI Ei 1 i I

Total

Total

Nondurable goods

Manufacturers'
unfilled
orders 3

11,011

43,130

173,829

12,799
15,276
19,444
23,203
23,449
24,061
24,039
24,655
24,867
24,312
22,528
24,369
22,130
21,717
21,560
22,174
22,608
20,332
19,274

48,145
53,951
59,254
67,960
76,678
82,743
84,111
84,507
83,979
83,272
82,365
80,868
80,239
79,458
79,676
79,339
78,803
81,081
82,096

182,499
204,880
261,941
303,178
320,977
318,621
327,105
328,861
328,384
327,955
323,556
321,574
318,621
318,114
315,957
315,639
315,218
311,746
307,715

Capital
goods
industries,
nondefense

Manufacturers'
inventory—
shipments
ratio 4

M illions of do lars, seasoilally adjust 3d
1975

1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981: June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct

Nov

Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June p
1
2
3

86,595
98,802
113,201
126,953
143,935
154,249
166,217
170,951
170,333
169,274
168,156
163,957
161,442
159,614
155,023
158,142
157,517
156,114
160,693
160,799

43,656
50,689
59,267
67,848
76,060
77,540
83,417
86,891
85,739
85,223
84,671
81,265
80,279
79,133
75,551
77,976
78,124
77,136
79,383
78,715

42,939
48,113
53,934
59,104
67,875
76,708
82,800
84,060
84,594
84,051
83,485
82,692
81,163
80,481
79,472
80,167
79,394
78,978
81,310
82,084

159,934
175,193
189,334
210,679
241,034
264,016
283,152
274,616
276,983
279,102
282,209
284,386
285,784
283,152
281,155
281,688
280,065
278,985
276,449
275,118

Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales,
Book value, end of period.
End of period.




102,874
112,581
121,737
138,045
160,601
174,674
188,429
181,125
183,229
185,022
187,686
189,461
190,222
188,429
187,054
187,121
186,063
185,916
184,870
184,322

57,060
62,612
67,598
72,634
80,433
89,341
94,723
93,492
93,754
94,080
94,523
94,925
95,561
94,723
94,100
94,567
94,002
93,070
91,579
90,796

85,149
99,543
115,027
131,664
147,354
155,738
166,015
171,022
172,089
168,797
167,728
159,558
159,460
156,660
154,519
155,984
157,198
155,694
157,224
156,760

42,019
51,398
61,076
72,410
79,394
79,060
83,272
86,911
87,582
84,819
84,456
77,193
78,592
76,421
75,061
76,309
77,859
76,891
76,143
74,664

1.84
1.69
1.61
1.57
1.57
1.66
1.66
1.61
1.63
1.65
1.68
1.73
1.77
1.77
1.81
1.78
1.78
1.79
1.72
1.71

4
For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for
monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month.
NOTE.—-Series revised beginning 1977.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

21

PRICES
PRODUCER PRICES
In June, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 1.0 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished
consumer foods rose 0.5 percent, and prices of other finished consumer goods increased 1.4 percent. Prices of
capital equipment rose 0.8 percent from their May level.
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)

INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)
320

320

300

180

160

160

140

140

120
1982
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Fin shed goods
Period

Total
finished
goods

Consumer
foods

Consumer g >ods

147.5
163.4
170.6
181.7

1978
1979
1980
1981
1981: June
July
Aug
Sept
Get
Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Peb
Mar
Apr
May
June

195.9
217.7
247.0
269.8
270.3
271.3
272.1
272.6
274.2
275.5
276.3
277.8
277.3
276.5
276.7
276.8
279.7

1

166.9
181.0
180.4
189.9
207.2
226.2
239.5
253.6
254.5
256.6
256.8
255.5
255.0
253.2
253.0
255.9
257.1
256.7
260.8
262.7
263.9

139.3
156.2

138.6
153.1

166.1
177.7
190.7
213.3
247.8
273.3
273.7
274.3
275.2
276.4
278.6
280.9
281.9
283.0
282.0
281.1
280.1
279.6
283.0

162.6
174.3
186.7
211.5
250.8
276.5
277.1
277.4
277.9
279.3
281.4
283.8
284.6
285.6
284.7
283.0
281.1
280.1
283.9

Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds.

NOTE.—Data revised for February 1982.

22



Nondurable

Capital
equipment

146.8
163.0
174.8
189.3
200.0
231.3
283.9
319.6
320.4
321.2
321.5
323.9
325.3
328.0
329.3
331.3
330.6
327.0
324.3
321.8
326.5

141.0
162.5
173.4
184.6
199.2
216.5
239.8
264.3
264.1
265.6
267.4
267.8
270.5
272.5
274.1
275.4
274.3
275.5
276.5
277.7
279.9

Total
Total

1974
1975
1976
1977

Internlediate

F nished go ads excluding consumer foo is

Durable

125.9
138.2
144.5
152.8

166.9
183.2
206.2
218.6
218.9
218.5
219.6
219.5
222.5
224.5
224.7
224.4
223.1
223.9
223.4
224.3
226.9

Total

149.3
163.6
169.7
180.7
194.9
217.9
248.9
271.3
272.0
272.9
273.3
273.9
275.2
276.3
276.9
278.5
278.2
276.8
276.8
276.6
279.7

162.9
180.0
189.1
201.5

215.6
242.2
280.3
306.0
306.9
308.1
309.7
309.8
309.7
310.6
311.1
312.0
311.1
310.4
308.5
308.8
309.7

ma terials

Foods
and
feeds >
200.2
195.3
185.3
190.5
203.1
226.1
252.6
250.3
255.1
251.0
251.4
242.5
238.3
233.6
233.2
237.8
238.9
237.5
243.2
247.3
247.0

Cnude maten als

Other

Total

159.5
178.6
189.4

196.1
196.9
202.7
209.2
234.4
274.3
304.6
329.0
336.9
337.6
334.4
328.4
322.7
318.1
313.6
319.3
317.3
314.6
320.2
327.3
327.0

202.3
216.5
244.4
282.3
310.1
310.8
312.3
314.1
314.8
315.1
316.3
316.9
317.6
316.5
315.8
313.3
313.4
314.4

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Foodstuffs
and
feedstuffs

Other

189.4
191.8
190.2
192.1
216.2
247.9
259.2
257.4
265.0
264.9
261.9
252.0
246.1
240.8
234.1
244.5
246.1
246.7
255.4
262.2
260.5

208.9
206.9
228.5

245.0
272.3
330.0
401.0
482.3
490.8
493.2
489.7
492.2
486.9
483.9
484.6
480.3
470.6
461.0
460.3
468.0
470.7

CONSUMER PRICES
In June, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 1.0 percent, seasonally adjusted (1.2 percent
unadjusted). Food and beverages prices were up 0.6 percent, seasonally adjusted, and energy prices were up 4.1
percent, unadjusted.
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)

INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE]

320

320

300

300

280

280

260

260

240

240

220

220

200

200
ALL ITEMS

180

140

140

120
I I I I LJ-LJJ
1974

1980

1975

1981

SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1982

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1967=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

T ransportatio n

Housing
Period

All
items!

Food
and
beverages

NSA

Home
purchase

ing,
taxes,
and

NSA

Total '

Apparel
and
upkeep

All items
less food,
Medical
care

NSA

Total '

New
cars

Motor
fuel 2

Bner-

gy 3

Services

and home
purchase
and

NSA

Rel. imp.5

100.0

17.5

46.0

4.6

19.3

3.5

6.0

4.9

11.1

43.2

49.8

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

147.7
161.2
170.5
181.5
195.4
217.4
246.8
272.4

158.7
172.1
177.4
188.0
206.3
228.5
248.0
267.3

148.8
164.5
174.6
186.5
202.8
227.6
263.3
293.5

142.7
160.3
168.4
179.5
196.7
223.1
254.3
267.7

181.1
201.9
212.8
227.2
257.8
308.9
396.0
472.5

136.2
142.3
147.6
154.2
159.6
166.6
178.4
186.9

137.7
150.6
165.5
177.2
185.5
212.0
249.7
280.0

117.5
127.6
135.7
142.9
153.8
166.0
179.3
190.2

159.9
170.8
177.9
188.2
196.3
265.6
369.1
410.9

150.5
168.6
184.7
202.4
219.4
239.7
265.9
294.5

159.7
176.6
189.3
207.3
220.4
275.9
361.1
410.0

152.1
166.6
180.4
194.3
210.9
234.2
270.3
305.7

138.5
150.5
160.8
170.6
180.9
194.1
211.6
231.6

June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

271.3
274.4
276.5
279.3
279.9
280,7
281.5

266.0
267.7
269.1
270.9
271.5
271.9
272.1

291.6
296.3
299.3
303.2
303.3
304.8
305.9

266.6
271.4
272.6
274.5
272.5
270.2
270.5

467.2
480.0
488.3
501.8
501.8
505.6
506.3

186.1
187.1
188.4
189.0
189.5
189.3
189.4

276.9
279.7
281.4
284.6
288.2
290.8
292.5

192.0
192.8
192.8
193.7
194.0
194.6
196.1

406.5
404.3
404.7
408.3
414.6
418.1
420.3

292.0
295.9
299.4
302.0
305.0
308.3
310.5

414.0
415.7
416.1
417.1
414.9
414.1
414.6

303.3
308.6
312.2
316.9
318.4
321.4
322.9

230.3
232.6
234.4
236.5
238.3
239.8
241.4

1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mav
June

282.5
283.4
283.1
284.3
287.1
290.6

274.1
275.8
274.9
275.7
277.8
279.6

306.7
307.9
306,9
309.5
313.7
316.8

269.3
270.4
269.2
272.3
279.3
285.6

506.0
507.2
500.9
508.4
516.2
521.8

189.3
190.1
190.9
191.1
191.0
191.2

291.9
289.9
287.1
282.6
283.8
289.7

196.0
194.5
194.6
196.0
196.5
197.9

413.1
403.6
387.6
361.8
365.1
384.7

312.9
315.0
318.1
321.3
324.2
327.1

416.4
413.0
406.1
395.7
402.1
418.6

324.4
325.6
325.7
328.7
331.8
334.5

242.5
243.4
244.6
246.1
247.0
248.7

1981:

1

9.6

12.9

Includes items not shown separately.
Ineludes direct pricing of diesel and gasoho! beginning September 1981.
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant, etc.
4
Estimated series. Finance includes financing, taxes, and insurance.
s
Relative importance, December 1981.
2

3




NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and
clerical workers.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

23

CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS

Period

1973
1974
1975

22.5
13.0
5.5
-2.5

18.3
6.6
3.7
6.9
9.2
12.8
11.8
7.1

Oct
Nov
Dee

1982: Jan
Peb
Mar
Apr
May
June

Consum 3r goods

Total
finished

goods

Foods

6.9
11.7
7.4
7.5
1.4

.8
.6
.7
.1
1.0
.7
.6

7.1
4.7
5.0
3.4
4.3
5.1

.5

5.4
2.6
.3
-1.6

Excluding foods

Capital
equipment

Consum sr goods

Total
finished
goods

Excluding foods

Foods

Capital
equipment

5.3
22.6
8.2
6.4

.5
.8
.1
2
-.7
-.1
1.1
.5
-.2
1.6
.7
.5

7.3
7.9
8.8
11.4
9.2

.5
.1
.2
.5
.8
.9
.3

.5
-.2
-.3
.1
.0
1.0

Sept

Capital
equipment

7.4
20.5
6.7
6.0
6.7
8.5
17.5
14.2
8.5

.6
.4
.3
.2
.6
.5
.3

June
July

Aug

1

Excluding foods

Foods

11.8

1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981:

Consum sr goods

Total
finished
goods

Percen change fro Ti 6 months earlier;
seas onally adjus ted annual r ates

Percen t change fro n 3 months earlier;
seas onally adjus ted annual r Eites

Percen change fro •n preceding period;
seasonally adjusted '

.4
-.3
-.6
-.7
-.4
1.4

-.5

1.4
6.3
6.0
7.9
9.0
11.7

-.7
4.7

7.4
2.7
2.1
1.6
5.1
6.5

o 9

6.2
-6.3
1.3

11.9
9.2
7.3
5.4
4.3
6.0
5.5

4.8
3.9
2.9
1.8
.9
2.5

8.5
5.7
7.6
7.8
9.7

4.3
4.8
5.2
2.6
1.8
-.1
-1.2

10.8
9.5
9.1

5.3
4.5
5.0
4.5

10.0
8.6

6.1
1.3

6.3
5.6
1.6
-2.5
5.5
-3.9

5.5

.4
.4
.4
.4
.8

7.6
2.8
3.4
3.2
5.9
8.8
7.8

3.5

-.5
.2
.9
4.6
7.6
8.8

6.0
5.0
2.7
-.2
-2.6
-.5

7.5
5.2
5.8
4.5
3.9
4.3

9.9
8.2
7.2

7.8
8.1
8.2
7.7

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted).

NoTB.—Based on revised data for February 1982.

CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted *

Tra nsportati m

Housing

Period

All
items 2

Food
and
beverages

Total 2

Home
purchase
NSA

1974
1975
1976
1977

1981:

June
July

Aug
Sept

Oct
Nov
Dec

1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
!

and
upeep

3

24



New
cars

10.1

11.6
10.0
10.1
4.3

14.6
7.6
1.6
11.2
14.7
27.5
23.3
17.9

8.7
2.3
4.5
4.2
3.2
5.5
6.8
3.6

13.3
9.8
8.8
4.3
7.7
18.2
14.7
11.0

11.5

10.0
4.3
8.4
11.2
15.8
11.4
1.2

.7
1.1
.8
1.1
.4
.5
.4

.2
.6
.5
.7
.2
.1
.1

1.1
1.6
1.0
1.3
.0
.5
.4

1.4
1.8
.4
.7
-.7
.8
.1

1.9
2.7
1.7
2.8
0
.8
.1

.2
.5
.7
.3
.3
-.1
.1

.4
1.0
.6
1.1
1.3
.9
.6

1.1
.4
0
.5
.2
.3
.8

.3
.2
-.3
.2
1.0
1.0

.7
.6
-.3
.3
.8
.6

.3
.4

-.4
.4
-.4
1.2
2.6
2.3

-.1
.2
-1.2
1.5
1.5
1.1

-.1
.4
.4
.1
-.1
.1

2
-.7
-1.0
-1.6
.4
2.1

_.!
-.8
.1
.7
.3
.7

q

.8
1.4
1.0

cal
care

Ener-

gy"

Services

NSA

7.5
5.4
7.6
9.9
15.2
13.7
10.2

12.0
6.2
.8
7.6

Motor
fuel 3

NSA

Annual changes are from December to December, not seasonally adjusted.
Includes items not shown separately.
Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981.
4
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant, etc.
5
Estimated series. Finance includes financing, taxes, and insurance.
2

Total 2

13.4

12.2
7.0
4.8
6.8
9.0
13.3
12.4
8.9

1978
1979
1980
1981

Financing,
taxes,
and
insurance

All items
less food,
energy,
and
home
purchase
and

7.3
4.8
7.2

6.2
7.4
7.5
6.8

8.8
8.8
10.1
10.0
12.5

37.4
18.1
11.9

11.3
8.1
7.3
7.9
9.3
13.7
14.2
13.0

-.5
.1
.9
1.5
.8
.5

1.0
1.3
1.2
.9
1.0
1.1
.7

.7
.4
.1
.2
-.5
-.2
.1

1.1
1.7
1.2
1.5
.5
.9
.5

.8
1.0
.8
.9
.8
.6

-1.7
-2.3
-4.0
-6.7
.9
5.4

.8
.7
1.0
1.0
.9
.9

.4
-.8

.5
.4
.0
.9
.9
.8

.5

20.6
11.0

12.4

2.6
4.9
8.5

10.1

52.2
18.9
9.4

-1.0

9.9

21.6
11.6
6.9
7.2
8.0

-1.7
-2.6
1.6
4.1

Adde idum:
All item percent
change {annual
ra te)
From

From

months
earlier

months
earlier

8.1
11.3
11.3
12.8
9.7

8.4
5.4

8.8
9.6
9.3
10.4
10.5
9.8
9.1

4.8
3.7
1.0
.8
3.7
9.3

7.2
6.0
3.2
2.8
3.7
5.1

11.1
6.3

6.8
5.5
6.9
7.5
9.9
9.4

.7
.4
.5
.6
.4
.7

NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data beginning January 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban \
ers and clerical workers.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received by farmers were unchanged in July and prices paid by farmers rose 0.6 percent in the month ended
July 15.
INDEX, 1977=100

(RATIO SCALE]

INDEX, 1977=100

(RATIO SCALE)

180
160

120

100

80
1982
'/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID.
SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1977 = 100]
P rices paid by farmer s

Pri ces received by farm ers

Period

Livestock and
products

All farm
products

All commodities,
services,
interest, taxes, l
and wage rates

Production
items, interest,
taxes, and wage
rates

Production
items

Ratio 2

105
101
102
100
115
132
134
138

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

117
105
102
100
105
116
125
134

94
98
101
100
124
147
144
143

81
89
95
100
108
123
138
150

81
89
95
100
109
125
139
150

83
91
97
100
108
125
138
148

130
113
107
100
106
107
97
92

1981:

July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

142
138
133
130
130
128

138
130
120
120
121
122

147
146
145
140
138
133

150
151
151
150
150
150

150
150
150
149
149
148

148
148
148
147
147
145

95
91
88
87
87
85

1982:

Jan:
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July

132
133
133
135
139
137
137

126
123
120
123
125
125
125

137
142
145
147
151
149
149

154
154
155
155
155
156
157

153
153
154
154
155
155
156

148
151
150
150
150
151
151

86
86
86
87
90
88
87

1

Includes items not shown separately.
Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices
and wage rates.
2




NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes
have been converted to a 1977 = 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.

25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS
Ml declined in June and growth in the broader aggregates declined a little from the May pace.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS'(RATIO SCALE]

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE)

400

400

200

200

1982
'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]

Ml

Period

M2

M3

L

Sum of currency,
demand deposits,
travelers' checks, and
other checkable deposits

Ml plus overnight KPs
and Eurodollars,
MMMF balances
(general purpose and
broker/dealer), and
savings and small time
deposits

M2 plus large time
deposits, term RPs, and
institution-only MMMF

MS plus other liquid
assets

(OCD) '

1974:
1975:
1976:
1977:
1978:
1979:
1980:
1981:
1981:

1982:

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec

Percent Change from ^ear or 6
n onths earlier

Ml

M2

277.4

911.2

291.0
310.4

335.5
363.2
389.0
414.5
440.9

1,026.9
1,171.2
1,297.7
1,403.9
1,518.9
1,656.2
1,822.7

1,064.3
1,166.2
1,305.0
1,464.6
1,629.0
1,779.4
1,963.1
2,188.1

1,249.8
1,376.6
1,531.4
1,724.3
1,938.9
2,153.9
2,370.4
2,642.8

4.4
4.9
6.7
8.1
8.3
7.1
6.6
6.4

June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

428.4
429.4
431.1
431.2
432.9
436.4
440.9

1,740.9
1,753.7
1,772.4
1,778.3
1,789.5
1,809.9
1,822.7

2,082.1
2,102.5
2,126.0
2,138.1
2,151.1
2,174.7
2,188.1

2,506.6
2,530.4
2,559.7
2,577.2
2,600.0
2,629.3
2,642.8

6.8
5.6
5.7
3.2
.2
3.4
5.9

10.5
10.8
11.5

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June*1

448.6
447.3
448.3
452.3
451.5
451.3

1,841.3
1,848.0
1,865.2
1,880.7
1,897.5
1,907.6

2,204.3
2,215.0
2,235.8
2,258.1
2,278.7
2,295.2

2,667.4
2,689.9
2,716.8

9.1
7.7
8.1
9.2
7.0
4.8

10.2

1

Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions.
2
Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 month,
earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.

26



Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

5.6
12.7
14.1
10.8

8.2
8.2
9.0
10.1

9.3
7.8
9.1
9.6
8.7

M3

8.4
9.6
11.9
12.2
11.2

9.2
10.3
11.5
12.5
12.3
12.8
11.6
10.5
10.9
10.4

9.9
8.5
9.3

10.0
10.5

10.2

9.9
9.5

10.0

9.8

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

DePenod

Currency

mand
deposits '

Other
checkable
deposits
(OCD)

Overnight
repurchase
agreements
(RPs),
net, plus
overnight
Eurodollars

Money market
mutua Ifund
bala nces
General
purpose
and
broker/
dealer

Institution
only

NSA

Dec:
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

67.8
73.8
80.6
88.6
97.4
106.1
116.2
123.1

207.4
214.1
224.4
239.6
253.9
262.2
267.2
236.4

1981:
June
July
Aug
Sept
Get
Nov
Dee

119.7
120.5
120.7
121.1
121.3
121.8
123.1

1982:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May"
June ".

123.8
124.6
125.1
126.3
127.4
128.4

its

Small
denomination time
deposits 2

Large
denomination time
deposits 2

Term
repurchase
agreements
(KPs)

Term
Eurodollars
(net)

NSA

NSA

NSA

Savings
depos-

NSA

mgs
bonds

Shortterm
Treasury
securities

Bankers'
acceptances

53.6

10.6

8.4
8.8
11.8
21.4
26.5
31.8
39.7

79.2
97.0
98.1
104.2

r
paper

290.0
340.9
396.5
454.1
533.9
652.6
751.7
854.7

144.4
129.8

8.4
9.0

8.0
9.7

13.9
33.7

337.6
387.7
451.7
490.4
479.9
421.7
398.9
343.6

118.2
145.2
194.6
221.8
257.9
300.3

15.0
21.0
27.5
30.2
37.8
35.4

13.1
18.7
29.9
42.9
48.4
66.7

80.3
79.6
72.3
67.7

77.1
81.1
89.9
99.3
128.5
156.7
176.5

102.9
112.8
122.2
130.6
137.3
144.9
151.2

20.1
21.6
23.3
26.6
29.4
32.0
33.7

366.8
361.0
350.9
343.1
339.6
340.9
343.6

805.5
814.0
830.8
839.7
849.8
856.8
854.7

285.6
293.1
299.8
302.3
302.2
300.6
300.3

38.8
37.2
33.4
33.8
33.4
35.6
35.4

57.9
58.7
61.0
61.2
63.4
65.5
66.7

69.7
69.4
68.9
68.4
67.9
67.7
67.7

160.3
161.8
164.1
168.1
176.0
179.9
176.5

36.4
37.1
37.3
37.6
37.1
38.1
39.7

100.3
100.8
102.4
103.8
104.4
103.7
104.2

154.9
156.0
159.2
161.9
164.3
168.6

32.5
30.5
31.5
31.5
32.8
33.7

348.8
348.6
350.7
350.5
350.9
349.9

852.3
859.4
869.9
881.6
894.1
901.0

302.6
308.0
312.6
317.1
321.4
328.2

32.5
32.5
31.5
34.2
32.3
31.0

69.5
73.5
74.3

67.8
67.8
67.7

180.3
186.4
191.0

40.2
39.1
37.9

105.4
108.2
110.1

0.4
.9

7.2
7.5

2.7
4.2
8.4
16.9
26.9
77.0

13.7
18.8
24.1
26.3
35.0
38.1

34.4
61.9
151.2

237.7
236.7
236.6
234.7
235.7
235.7
236.4

66.7
68.1
69.5
71.2
71.6
74.7
77.0

42.9
42.3
43.1
39.6
36.1
36.9
38.1

239.3
234.5
233.0
233.0
232.6
231.0

81.1
83.8
85.7
88.6
87.0
87.5

43.2
42.9
43.0
40.4
42.8
42.8

2.1
3.2
2.8
2.9
7.1

0.2
.4
.6
.9
3.1
9.3

1
Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions.
2
Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than
$100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively.

63.2
67.2
71.7
76.4

50.1
48.0
51.7
62.9

NOTE.—See p. 26 for overall measures.
NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Insta Iment credit ext€ nded
Total '

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

Automobile

Net char ge in amount ou standing

Insta [ment credit liquidated

Revolving

Total

l

Automobile

Revolving

Total '

Automobile

495

172,765
180,083
210,740
257,600
297,668
324,777
306,076
336,341

46,514
52,420
63,743
75,641
87,981
93,901
83,454
94,404

33,213
36,956
43,934
87,596
105,125
120,174
128,068
140,135

163,276
172,675
189,179
222,138
254,589
286,396
304,628
316,447

46,019
49,444
53,278
60,437
69,245
79,186
82,977
84,809

31,243
35,616
41,764
81,348
96,090
111,546
126,653
135,438

9,489
7,408
21,561
35,462
43,079
38,381
1,448
19,894

1981: May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Get
NOT
Dee

28,377
29,223
28,290
28,323
29,406
26,836
27,370
26,656

7,384
7,515
8,059
8,396
9,000
7,490
8,073
7,352

11,876
12,658
11,706
11,663
12,263
11,753
11,379
11,592

26,806
27,192
26,739
25,895
26,431
25,834
26,770
26,689

7,498
7,366
7,003
6,537
6,921
6,466
7,509
7,284

11,520
11,651
11,590
11,486
11,692
11,429
11,358
11,533

1,571
2,031
1,551
2,428
2,975
1,002

600
-33

564
68

1982:

26,888
27,150
27,462
28,684
29,197

7,474
7,283
7,183
7,871
8,429

11,070
11,730
12,143
12,416
12,528

26,445
27,075
26,472
27,509
27,798

7,595
7,339
7,211
7,638
7,470

11,266
11,885
11,836
11,917
11,991

443
75
990

-121

1

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May

Includes "mobile home" and "other," not shown separately.




1,175
1,399

2,976
10,465
15,204
18,736
14,715

477
9,595

-114

149
1,056
1,859
2,079
1,024

-56
-28
233
959

Revolving
1,970
1,340
2,170
6,248
9,035
8,628

1,415
4,697

356
1,007

116
177
571
324
21
59
-196
-155

307
499
537

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

27

BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES
Commercial bank loans and investments rose again in June. Reserves also rose.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS'(RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS'(RATIO SCALE)
1,800

1,400

1,800
1,600
1,400

1,200

1,200

1,600 h-ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS

1,000

1,000

800

800

600

600

400

400

INVESTMENT IN OTHER SECURITIES

200
180
160
140
120

200
180
160
""*"""""""**

140

1

120

100

100

80

80

60

60

40

40
1974

1982

1981

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AVERAGES OF WEDNESDAY FIGURES
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
A 1 commercial ban.ks '

Period

Total loans
and
investments

Loans a nd leases

Total

1975:
1976:
1977:
1978:
1979:
1980:
1981:

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec

2

Depo

U.S. Treasury
securities

Other
securities

Total

Nonborrowed

3

Born wings
(millions of dollars,
unad usted)

E Bserves adjust d
for changes in
re serve requirenlents

Invest!nents

Commercial
and industrial
loans

itory institutio ns

Required

Total

Seasonal

745.2
804.6
891.5
1,013.5
1,135.9
1,239.6
1,316.3

517.4
555.0
632.5
747.0
849.9
915.1
973.9

189.6
190.9
210.9
245.9
291.2
326.8
358.0

82.2
100.8
99.8
93.8
94.5
110.0
111.0

145.6
148.8
159.3
172.8
191.5
214.4
231.4

31.16
31.70
33.18
35.08
36.37
39.01
40.53

31.03
31.65
32.61
34.22
34.90
37.32
39.89

30.89
31.43
32.99
34.85
36.04
38.49
40.21

127
62
558
874
1,473
1,617
636

13
12
54
134
82
116
53

1981: June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

1,295.4
1,302.8
1,312.2
1,317.8
1,324.0
1,327.5
1,316.3

957.2
964.0
972.7
979.0
982.8
986.1
973.9

345.1
350.9
356.6
360.6
363.7
363.4
358.0

116.7
116.4
115.6
113.2
112.5
110.3
111.0

221.6
222.3
223.8
225.6
228.7
231.2
231.4

39.62
39.73
39.81
40.31
40.12
40.15
40.53

37.58
38.05
38.39
38.86
38.94
39.49
39.89

39.28
39.39
39.52
39.90
39.84
39.81
40.21

2,039
1,679
1,417
1,451
1,179
661
636

291
248
220
222
152
79
53

1982:

1,320.0
1,332.4
1,342.5
1,352.6
1,361.9
1,368.7

974.5
985.2
995.0
1,002.0
1,010.7
1,017.1

360.3
365.5
370.0
373.1
378.8
383.4

114.1
115.1
114.4
116.6
116.3
115.8

231.5
232.0
233.1
234.0
234.9
235.8

41.28
40.93
41.09
41.18
41.33
41.44
41.45

39.76
39.14
39.53
39.61
40.21
40.24
40.75

40.86
40.62
40.73
40.91
40.97
41.13
41.12

1,526
1,713
1,611
1,581
1,105
1,211

75
132
174
167
237
239

1
2
3

Jan
Peb
Mar
Apr
May
June "
July"

Data are averages of Wednesday figures.
Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States.
Data are averages of daily figures.

28



e: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstem.

SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL
CORPORATE BUSINESS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Uses

Sources
External

C edit market fu nds

Period

Total

Internal *
Total
Total

165.8
208.7
202.9
167.9
223.4
264.2
320.4
366.7
336.2
377.1

n
m
IV

1981: I

n
m

80.8
117.0
117.3
48.3
89.2
108.1
148.5
176.1
139.3
147.2

57.6
72.9
82.8
41.7
64.3
84.6
93.2
104.8
106.1
107.3

40.7
36.9
39.1
49.7
48.0
48.1
45.8
39.5
66.5
34.2

16.9
36.0
43.6
-8.0
16.3
36.5

194.9
192.9
199.2
200.3

164.7
72.5
126.3
194.0

126.7
70.1
93.3
134.3

327.0
411.9

1980: I

85.0
91.7
85.6
119.7
134.2
156.1
171.9
190.6
196.8
229.9

359.6
265.4
325.4
394.3

1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

222.0
228.2
236.4
232.9

105.0
183.7
172.1
128.0

226.7

106.0

408.5
360.9
332.7

IV

1982:

Loans and
short-term
. paper

Securities
and
mortgages

I"

Other

Total

2

Increase in
financial
assets

Discrepancy
(sources less
uses)

137.9
109.7
148.3
174.1
199.2
220.9
216.9
258.7

50.1
70.5
52.2
41.2
53.0
54.4
91.7
119.7
74.9
66.1

16.7
16.7
12.9
17.0
22.0
35.7
29.5
26.2
44.5
52.2

310.6
224.8
289.1
342.4

224.1
212.0
207.1
224.3

86.5
12.8
82.0
118.2

49.0
40.7
36.3
51.9

34.5
38.5
50.7
35.8

300.1
350.8
345.8
302.5

231.6
265.4
281.8
256.1

68.5
85.4
64.0
46.4

26.8
61.1
62.7
58.3

20.3

277.6

228.4

49.2

55.1

47.4
65.3
39.7
73.1

23.2
44.0
34.5
6.5
24.9
23.5
55.3
71.4
33.2
39.9

149.1
191.9
190.1
150.9
201.4
228.5
290.9
340.6
291.7
324.8

65.9
62.3
63.5
74.1

60.8
7.8
29.8
60.2

37.9
2.4
33.0
59.6

70.4
145.3
121.3
92.2

56.2
51.7
9.4
19.3

14.2
93.6
111.9
72.9

126.3

47.7

78.6

1

Capital
expenditures 3

99.0
121.5

3

Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital
consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained

Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S.
Government.
Souree: Board of

" "Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S.

Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL
CORPORATIONS
[Billions of dollars, except as noted]

Current liabilitit s

Curren assets
End of period
Total

Cash

U.S.
Governsecurities

SEC series: 2
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

Notes and
accounts
receivable

492.3
529.6
599.3
697.8
790.7

50.2
53.3
59.0
66.3
71.1

7.7
11.0
10.6
12.8
12.3

206.1
221.1
248.2
288.5

735.4
759.0
826.8
902.1
1,030.0
1,200.9
1,281.6
1,361.4

73.2
82.1
88.2
95.8
104.5
116.1
121.0
124.5

1980: III
IV

1,254.9
1,281.6

1981: I

1,321.2
1,317.4
1,349.2
1,361.4

FTC-PEB series: 3
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981 ...-

n
in

iv :

1
Total
2
Based
3

Total

Notes and
accounts
payable

Other
current
liabilities

Net
working
capital

Current
ratio *

322.1

193.3
200.4
225.7
263.9
313.6

35.0
43.8
55.8
66.4
71.7

304.9
326.0
375.6
450.9
530.4

211.3
220.5
282.9
340.3
402.3

93.6
105.5
92.7
110.7
128.1

187.4
203.6
223.7
246.9
260.3

1.615
1.625
1.595
1.548
1.491

11.1
19.0
23.4
17.6
16.3
15.6
17.3
15.8

265.8
272.1
292.8
324.7
383.8
456.8
491.2
512.3

319.5
315.9
342.4
374.8
426.9
501.7
525.4
565.3

65.9
69.9
80.1
89.2
98.5
110.8
126.7
143.4

453.4
451.6
494.7
549.4
665.5
809.1
877.2
962.3

269.8
264.2
281.9
313.2
373.7
456.3
498.3
541.3

183.6
187.4
212.8
236.2
291.7
352.8
378.9
421.0

282.0
307.4
332.2
352.7
364.6
391.8
404.4
399.1

1.622
1.681
1.672
1.642
1.548
1.484
1.461
1.415

113.4
121.0

16.4
17.3

478.7
491.2

524.5
525.4

121.9
126.7

850.5
877.2

477.2
498.3

373.4
378.9

404.3
404.4

1.475
1.461

120.5
118.5
118.3
124.5

17.0
17.7
16.0
15.8

507.3
507.4
519.7
512.3

542.8
540.0
557.2
565.3

133.6
133.7
138.1
143.4

910.9
908.1
951.1
962.3

504.0
500.8
529.1
541.3

406.9
407.2
422.0
421.0

410.3
409.3
398.1
399.1

1.450
1.451
1.419
1.415

current assets divided by total current liabilities.
on data from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury.
Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations, Federal Trade Commission.




Other
current
assets

Inven-

NOTE.—SBC series not available after 1974.
See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Trade Commission, and
Securities and Exchange Commission.

29

INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS
Interest rates fell in July.
PERCENT PER ANNUM

CORPORATE Aaa BONDS
(MOODY'S)

'

1981

1974
SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW

1982

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Percent per annum]

U.S.I Yeasury security yields
Period

1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981:

July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Deo
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Week ended:
1982: June 12
19
26
July 3
10
17
24
31
1

3-month
bills '

;..

Constant rnatalities
3-year

High-grade
2

10-year




Prime
commercial
paper,
6 months 4

Discount rate
(N.Y. F.E.
Bank) 5

Prime rate
charged by
banks 5

4.989
5.265
7.221
10.041
11.506
14.077
14.699
15.612
14.951
13.873
11.269
10.926
12.412
13.780
12.493
12.821
12.148
12.108
11.914

6.77
6.69
8.29
9.72
11.55
14.44
15.15
16.00
16.22
15.50
13.11
13.66
14.64
14.73
14.13
14.18
13.77
14.48
14.00

7.61
7.42
8.41
9.44
11.46
13.91
14.28
14.94
15.32
15.15
13.39
13.72
14.59
14.43
13.86
13.87
13.62
14.30
13.95

6.49
5.56
5.90
6.39
8.51
11.23
11.03
12.13
12.86
12.67
11.71
12.77
13.16
12.81
12.72
12.45
11.99
12.42
12.11

8.43
8.02
8.73
9.63
11.94
14.17
14.38
14.89
15.49
15.40
14.22
14.23
15.18
15.27
14.58
14.46
14.26
14.81
14.61

"5.34
4
5.61
"7.99
10.91
12.29
14.76
16.09
16.62
15.93
14.72
11.96
12.14
13.35
14.27
13.47
13.64
13.02
13.79
13.00

5.50
5.46
7.46
10.28
11.77
13.41
14-14
14 14
14-14
14 14
14-13
13 12
12-12
12 12
12-12
12 12
12-12
12 12
12 11%

6.84
6.83
9.06
12.67
15.27
18.87
20-20%
20%-20%
20% 19%
1934-18
18 16
15%-15%
15&-15X
15% 16%
1634-1634
16% 16%
1634-1634
16% 16%
1634-1534

12.074
12.248
12.588
13.269
12.806
11.797
11.140
10.559

14.08
14.57
14.95
14.81
14.49
14.08
13.53
13.72

13.97
14.36
14.70
14.54
14.30
13.93
13.58
13.85

12.31
12.62
12.56
12.54
12.39
12.24
11.87
11.94

14.62
14.79
15.10
15.07
14.96
14.65
14.32
14.39

13.20
13.86
14.49
14.46
14.04
13.28
12.11
12.24

12 12
12-12
12 12
12-12
12 12
12-12
12 11%

New-home
mortgage
yields
(FHLBB) 6

16)4-16)4
16% 16%
16)4-16)4
16% 16%
16% 16%
16% 16%
1634-16
16-15%

Rate on new issues within period; bank-discount basis.
2
Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department,
3
Weekly data are Wednesday figures.
4
Prior to November 1, 1979, data are for 4-6 months paper.
5
Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week.

30

Corporate
Aaa bonds
(Moody's)

bonds
(Standard &
Poor's) 3

1134-1134

9.00
9.02
9.56
10.78
12.66
14.70
14.72
15.27
15.29
15.65
16.38
15.87
15.25
15.12
15.67
15.84
15.89
15.43

6

Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as
well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Rates beginning
January' 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates.
Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS
Stock prices declined in July.
INDEX, DEC 31, 1965=50

INDEX, DEC31,1965=50

80

80

50

40

30

30

PERCENT

PERCENT
20

20 I

EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS

(S&P)

10

10

1974

1975

1976

1979

1978

1977

1980

1981

Common s1 ock yields
(perce nt) s

Co mmon stock price s 1
Ne\v York Stock Ex change indexes (] )ec. 31, 1965 = 5O ) 2

Period
Composite

Industrial

1982

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION

Transportation

Finance

Utility

Dow Jones
industrial
average 3

Standard &
Poor's
composite
index (194143 = 10)4

Dividendprice ratio

1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

54.46
53.69
53.70
58.32
68.10
74.02

60.44
57.86
58.23
64.76
78.70
85.44

39.57
41.09
43.50
47.34
60.61
72.61

36.97
40.92
39.22
38.20
37.35
38.91

52.94
55.25
56.65
61.42
64.25
73.52

974.92
894.63
820.23
844.40
891.41
932.92

102.01
98.20
96.02
103.01
118.78
128.05

4.62
5.28
5.47
5.26
5.20

1981: July
Aug
Sept

74.98
75.24
68.37
69.40
71.49
71.81

86.64
86.72
78.07
78.93
80.86
81.70

74.42
73.27
63.67
65.65
67.68
68.27

38.90
40.22
38.17
38.87
40.73
40.22

74.97
73.76
69.38
72.56
76.47
74.74

947.94
926.25
853.38
853.25
860.44
878.28

129.13
129.63
118.27
119.80
122.92
123.79

5.18
5.16
5.69
5.65
5.54
5.57

67.91
66.16
63.86
66.97
67.07
63.10
62.82

76.85
74.78
71.51
75.59
75.97
71.59
71.37

62.04
59.09
55.19
57.91
56.84
53.07
53.40

39.30
38.32
38.57
39.20
39.40
37.34
37.20

70.99
70.50
69.08
71.44
69.16
63.19
61.59

853.41
833.15
812.33
844.96
846.72
804.37
818.41

117.28
114.50
110.84
116.31
116.35
109.70
109.38

5.95
6.06
6.28
5.99
5.97
6.28
6.31

62.53
62.62
62.82
61.96
63.25
63.83
62.28

70.81
71.20
71.39
70.39
71.91
72.56
70.73

52.52
52.76
53.39
53.24
54.31
53.67
52.54

37.33
36.74
36.85
36.67
37.51
37.82
36.87

62.84
62.39
62.74
60.74
61.27
62.33
61.54

796.02
803.25
807.27
804.42
826.69
830.86
816.17

108.68
108.92
109.29
107.72
110.20
111.27
108.47

Earningsprice ratio

6.35
6.26
6.29
6.43
6.24
6.19
6.38

Get

Nov
Dec

1982:

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Week ended:
1982: June 19
26
July 3
10
17
24
31
1

Average of daily closing prices.
lncludes ali the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE.
Includes 30 stocks.
Includes 500 stocks.
5
Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earningsprice ratios based on prices at end of quarter.
z

3
4




3.77

8.90
10.79
12.03
13.46
12.66
11.94

13.13
12.45

NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

31

FEDERAL FINANCE
FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBT
In the first 9 months of fiscal year 1982, there was a budget deficit of $74.4 billion, compared to a deficit of
$48.8 billion a year earlier.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

800

800
RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS

700

700

600

600

500

500

RECEIPTS

400

400

300

300

50

50
SURPLUS (+) OR DEFICIT (-}

0

0

-50

-50

-100

-100
1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

FISCAL YEARS
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

[Billions of dollars]

Period

Outlays

Receipts

Surplus or
deficit (— )

Federal debt end of period)
Held by the
public

Fiscal year or period:
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
Transition quarter
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982 1
1983 (estimates):
First Concurrent Resolution, June 23, 1982
Mid-Session Review, July 1982 *

230.8
263.2
279.1
298.1
81.2
355.6
399.6
463.3
517.1
599.3
622.1

230.7
245.6
267.9
324.2
364.5
94.2
400.5
448.4
491.0
576.7
657.2
731.0

-23.4
-14.8
-4.7
-45.2
-66.4
-13.0
-44.9
-48.8
-27.7
-59.6
-57.9
-108.9

437.3
468.4
486.2
544.1
631.9
646.4
709.1
780.4
833.8
914.3
1,003.9
1,137.1

323.8
343.0
346.1
396.9
480.3
498.3
551.8
610.9
644.6
715.1
794.4
922.4

665.9
646.5

769.8
761.5

- 103.9
-115.0

1,273.5

1,048.4

Cumulative total, first 9 months:
Fiscal year 1981
Fiscal year 1982

443.5
468.5

492.3
542.9

-48.8
— 74.4

977.4
1,084.7

776.0
871.8

1
Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1983 Budget, Office of Management and Budget,
July 30, 1982.

32



207.3

Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget, except as noted.

FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND
OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
In the first 9 months of fiscal year 1982, budget receipts were $25.0 billion higher than a year earlier and budget
outlays were $50.6 billion higher.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

400

400

RECEIPTS

300

200

200
OTHER RECEIPTS

100

CORPORATION INCOME TAXES

1

I
600

600
OUTLAYS

500

500

400

400
NONDEFENSE

300

300

200

200

100

100

1974

1975

1976

1978

1979

1983

1982

1981

1980

FISCAL YEARS
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCES; DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

[Billions of dollars]
Outlays

Recei pts
Nation al defense
Period
Total

Individual
income
taxes

Corporation

Other

Depart-

Total
Total

taxes

Defense,
military

International
affairs

Health and
income
security

Interest

20.6
22.8
28.0
30.9
34.5
7.2
38.0
44.0
52.6
64.5
82.5
99.9
111.1

48.8
53.9
51.6
66.5
76.1
21.5
85.7
105.9
107.5
117.3
112.7
109.3
79.0

62.7
77.8

86.9
79.7

Fiscal year or period:
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
Transition quarter
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982 1
1983 1

207.3
230.8
263.2
279.1
298.1
81.2
355.6
399.6
463.3
517.1
599.3
622.1
646.5

94.7
103.2
119.0
122.4
131.6
38.8
157.6
181.0
217.8
244.1
285.9
298.5
293.8

32.2
36.2
38.6
40.6
41.4
8.5
54.9
60.0
65.7
64.6
61.1
49.9
58.3

80.4
91.4
105.7
116.1
125.0
34.0
143.0
158.6
179.8
208.4
252.2
273.7
294.4

230.7
245.6
267.9
324.2
364.5
94.2
400.5
448.4
491.0
576.7
657.2
731.0
761.5

76.6
74.5
77.8
85.6
89.4
22.3
97.5
105.2
117.7
135.9
159.8
187.7
221.5

73.2
77.6
84.9
87.9
21.9
95.6
103.0
115.0
132.8
156.1
182.8
215.9

5.7
6.9
5.6
2.2
4.8
5.9
6.1
10.7
11.1
11.2
12.1

80.0
90.4
104.8
134.3
158.9
41.0
174.5
187.4
207.1
248.3
291.1
322.9
337.8

Cumulative total, first 9 months:
Fiscal year 1981
Fiscal year 1982

443.5
468.5

208.6
220.7

49.2
42.0

185.7
205.8

492.3
542.9

117.5
138.3

114.8
135.1

8.9
7.7

216.4
239.4

1
Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1983 Budget, Office of Management and Budget,
July 30, 1982.




75.1

4.7
4.1

Other

Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

33

FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS
In the first quarter, of 1982, Federal receipts fell $16.7 billion (annual rate) and expenditures rose $0.9 billion,
yielding a deficit of $119.3 billion. In the second quarter, expenditures rose $4.7 billion; receipts data are
incomplete.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
800

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
800

700

700

600

500

500

400

400

300

50

SURPLUS

0
DEFICIT
-50

-100
-150

-150

1974

1975

1977

1982

1978
CALENDAR

YEARS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Federal Governme it receipts

Period
Total

Fiscal year:
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
Calendar year:
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1980: III
IV
1981: I
II
Ill
IV
1982: I
II"




Corporate
profits
tax
accruals

Indirect
business
tax and
nontax
accruals

365.9
414.3
480.9
525.2
614.7

166.3
186.5
222.6
250.2
291.8

58.9
67.3

24.5
27.2

76.1
70.1
70.9

29.2
34.6
55.7

375.2
431.6
493.6
540.7
628.2
542.4
574.6
620.0
627.0
640.2
625.7
609.0

170.1
194.9
230.6
257.5
298.1
260.1
274.4
286.4
297.0
307.9
300.9
299.9
302.4

61.6
71.3
74.2
70.3
67.3
68.0
72.8
76.1
65.6
68.4
59.1
45.6

25.0
28.1
29.4
38.9
58.5
40.2
47.7
57.5
61.5
57.8
57.2
48.7
50.3

NOTE.—Series revised beginning 197'

34

Personal
tax and
nontax
receipts

Federal government expenditur es

Contributions for
social
insurance

Total

Purchases
of goods
and
services

Transfer
payments

in-aid to
State
and
local
governments

Net
interest
paid

Subsidies
less
current
surplus of
Government

Less:
Wage
accruals
less
disburse-

150.4
164.2
189.8
218.0

169.9
182.2
201.8
239.4
279.2

66.4
74.7
79.1
86.6
90.1

28.5
33.6
40.6
50.6
66.2

6.9
9.8
9.8
10.5
13.1

.0
.0
.0

196.3

411.2
450.3
495.6
576.9
666.6

118.5
137.2
159.5
174.1
204.3
174.0
179.8
199.9
202.8
206.1
208.4
214.9
216.1

421.1
461.0
509.7
602.1
688.2
615.4
639.9
659.7
667.5
698.2
727.4
728.3
733.0

143.4
153.6
168.3
197.2
228.9
193.3
207.0
217.0
218.2
230.0
250.5
249.7
244.1

172.8
185.6
209.2
251.4
286.6
266.3
271.9
274.0
276.7
295.1
300.7
303.2
311.6

67.5
77.3
80.5
88.7
87.7
88.9
92.7
90.2
90.6
86.3
83.6
83.0
83.1

29.1
35.2
42,4
53.1
71.9
53.3
56.0
66.3
68.3
74.0
79.0
79.6
82.6

8.2
9.5
9.2
11.7
13.1

.0
.0
.0
-.0
.0

13.6
12.3
12.2
13.7
13.0
13.6
12.7
11.5

.0
.0
.0
.0
2

116.2
133.3
153.1
170.4

139.8

.0

.1

.1
-.2
.0

or deficit
( T ),
national
income
and
product

45.4
-36.1
-14.8
51.9
-51.9

-45.9
-29.5
-16.1
— 61.4
60.0
73.1
-65.2
-39.7
40.5
-58.0
-101.7
-119,3

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
[1967 = 100]
Indu strial

Period

1975

1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981 "
1981: July

Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

1982: Jan
Peb"
Mar "
Apr"
May '
Jime p
1

United
States
117.8
130.5
138.2
146.1

152.5
147.0
151.0
153.9
153.6
151.6
149.1
146.3
143.4
140.7
142.9
141.7
140.2
139.4
138.4

Canada

140.3
148.5
152.2
157.7
166.0
162.7
164.8
167.7
164.8
162.3
160.0
157.4
155.3
153.8
153.5
151.6
149.6
151.0

Consunw r prices (l nadjusted)

prod uetion (setisonally adju sted)

Japan

France

Germany

139
149
152
154
161
160
157
157
157
160
160
160
162

137.1
149.1

163.9
182.0
189.7
201.1
217.7
232.5
239.3
241.1
234.1
243.1
246.7
246.4
244.4
244.1
244.4
245.1
240.7
236.6

156
156
157
156

152.0
154.1
161.8
162.3
160.0
161
161
161
161
160
158
161
163
164
164

United
Kingdom

Italy

United
States '

Canada

114.3
117.4
123.0
127.0
131.7
123.1
118.2

161.2
170.5
181.5
195.4
217.4
246.8
272.4

118.1
117.8
119.0
121.0
119.1
118.3
118.1
119.0
119.4
120.0
121.4

127.6
143.5
145.1
147.9

157.6
166.5
162.6
166.2
127.5
163.1
154.7
163.6
158.9
156.7
164.1
161.4
161.3
160.6

Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers-

Italy

United
Kingdom

Japan

France

Germany

160.1
172.1
185.9
202.5
221.0
243.5
273.9

205.8
224.9
243.0
252.3
261.3
282.3
296.2

178.9
196.1
214.5
233.9
259.1
294.2
332.7

144.2
150.4
155.9
160.2
166.8
175.9
186.4

186.8
218.1
255.2
286.2
328.5
398.0
472.4

216.5
252.4
292.4
316.6
359.0
423.6
473.9

274.4
276.5
279.3
279.9
280.7
281.5

276.2
278.2
280.2
283.0
285.4
286.7

296.4
294.7
299.5
300.7
299.8
299.8

334.9
339.0
342.9
347.1
350.3
352.4

187.1
187.7
188.6

477.7
481.0
487.7
497.5
506.0
511.1

477.3
480.8
483.5
487.9
493.0
496.1

282.5
283.4
283.1
284.3
287.1
290.6

288.7
292.1
295.8
297.5
301.5
304.5

300.7
299.8
300.4
302.9
303.8

356.0
359.6
363.8
368.2
371.1

517.7
524.4
529.1
533.9
539.8
545.2

499.0
499.1
503.5
513.6
517.3
518.7

189.2
190.1
190.7
192.3
192.8
193.1
194.0
195.2
197.1

Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, Office of Planning and Research, in International Economic Indicators.

U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

Domestic exports

Total
domestic
foreign
exports

Total 2

Food,
beverages, and
tobacco

Crude
materials and
fuels

Merchandise trade mlance

Merc landise imp orts

Mer Jiandise expc rts '

Geileral impon s

factured
goods

3

Exports

Pood,
beverages, and
tobacco

Total 2

Crude
materials and
fuels

factured
goods

892
827
991
1,186
1,312
1,478
1,546

2,672
2,716
3,457
4,463
4,325
5,949

4,602
4,257
5,398
6,379
8,360
9,352
10,427

9,240
8,823
11,042
13,368
15,504
18,519
21,415

Exports
(f.a.s.)

Exports
(f.a.s.)

imports
(f.a.s.)

imports
(c.i.f.)

372
762
-.688
-2,430
-2,590
-2,300
-2,020

less
imports
(customs
value)

Total
(c.i.f.
value)

- 1,065
148
-1,440
-3,265
-3,530
-3,364
-3,030

]<*.a.s. valu e

Monthly average:
1974'
1975*
1976*
1977*
1978*
1979*
1980

8,174
8,971
9,602
10,103
11,973
15,155
18,386

8,053
8,842
9,456
9,912
11,753
14,869
18,036

1,269
1,399
1,436
1,330
1,717
2,049
2,534

1,317
1,266
1,341
1,548
1,746
2,352
2,810

5,294
5,913
6,437
6,679
7,873
9,716
11,991

8,547
8,209
10,290
12,533
14,563
17,455
20,406

7,831

Customs value

1981
1981: June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct

Nov

Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June

19,473

19,075

2,767

2,752

12,857

21,748

1,529

7,739

11,873

22,779

-2,275

-3,306

19,750
19,289
19,031
19,551
19,163
19,153
18,885

19,340
18,919
18,720
19,108
18,733
18,751
18,377

2,573
2,549
2,470
2,772
2,920
2,675
2,515

2,342
2,430
2,662
2,795
2,863
2,872
2,934

13,456
13,060
12,991
12,947
12,458
12,590
12,318

22,005
20,114
23,242
21,274
23,077
22,508
19,746

1,472
1,390
1,479
1,393
1,583
1,413
1,542

8,249
6,576
7,779
7,411
7,642
7,468
6,174

11,645
11,622
13,361
11,971
13,127
12,826
11,414

23,033
21,074
24,398
22,317
24,194
23,568
20,699

-2,255
-825
-4,212
-1,724
-3,914
-3,356
-861

-3,283
-1,784
-5,367
-2,766
-5,031
-4,415
-1,814

18,737
18,704
18,602
17,843
18,218
18,822

18,350
18,341
18,127
17,441
17,807
18,386

2,279
2,482
2,673
2,506
2,478
2,421

3,076
3,434
3,151
2,898
2,912
2,797

12,463
11,876
11,822
11,428
11,837
12,563

22,829
19,090
20,349
17,387
20,558
21,310

1,340
1,154
1,529
1,435
1,569
1,567

8,269
5,845
5,717
5,033
4,906
6,198

12,584
11,527
12,402
10,337
13,219
12,899

4,092
23,870
-387
19,900
21,237 -1,747
-456
18,165
21,509 -2,340
22,259 -2,488

-5,134
-1,197
-2,635
-322
-3,291
-3,437

1
Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginning
January 1978.
2
Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.
3
Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.

NOTE.—Imports on c.i.f. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods.




Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Islands exports are reflected only in the figures for total domestic and foreign exports and trade balance.
* Data for 1974-79 for total domestic and foreign exports, total general imports, and trade balance include trade of the Virgin Islands.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

35

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
The balance on current account shifted to a surplus of $1.2 billion in the first quarter from a deficit of $0.9 billion
in the fourth quarter of 1981. A decrease in the merchandise trade deficit, to $6.1 billion from $9.2 billion, more
than accounted for the shift.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
10

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
10

5 -

1982

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

r OF COMMERCE

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits (—)]
Merchandise

J

i

In vestment incorn e 3
Net

Period
Exports

Imports

Net
balance

71,410
98,306
107,088
114,745
120,816
142,054
184,473
224,237
236,254

-70,499
-103,649
-98,041
-124,051
-151,689
-175,813
-211,819
-249,575
-264,143

1980: HI
IV

55,786
57,856

1981: I

n
m

Net

military
transactions

transportation

services,
net 3

Balance
on goods
and

Remittances,
pensions,
and other
unilateral
transfers *

Balance
on
current
account

Receipts

Payments

-5,343
9,047
-9,306
30,873
-33,759
-27,346
-25,338
-27,889

21,808
27,587
25,351
29,286
32,179
42,245
64,129
72,686
85,945

-9,655
-12,084
- 12,564
-13,311
-14,217
-21,680
-32,914
-42,776
-52,908

12,153
15,503
12,787
15,975
17,962
20,565
31,215
29,910
33,037

-2,070
-1,653
-746
559
1,528
621
-2,035
-2,471
-1,541

-3,158
-3,184
-2,792
-2,558
-3,293
-3,125
-2,429
-940
-231

3,184
3,986
4,598
4,711
5,224
5,955
5,690

7,144
7,702

11,021
9,309
22,893
9,382
-9,451
-9,743
5,095
8,303
11,079

-59,735
-63,046

-3,949
-5,190

17,848
18,877

- 10,485
-11,518

7,363
7,359

-286
-742

-114
-174

1,810
1,879

4,824
3,131

— 1,444
-2,195

3,380
936

IV

60,683
60,284
57,694
57,593

-64,995
-66,831
-65,539
-66,778

4,312
-6,547
7,845
-9,185

20,528
21,642
22,048
21,727

- 12,405
— 13,441
- 13,865
-13,198

8,123
8,201
8,183
8,529

-487
-587
61
-528

-495
-139
200
203

1,838
1,981
1,960
1,924

4,667
2,909
2,559
943

-1,422
-1,510
-1,808
-1,870

3,245
1,399
751
-927

1982: I".

55,610

-61,669

-6,059

21,188

-14,208

6,980

213

44

1,992

3,170

-1,990

1,180

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

1

911

Excludes military grants.
2
Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage.
3
Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the
United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net.

36



Net

services

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

I

7,140
-3,881
2,124
-7,186
18,280
-4,613
4,384
4,998
-4,617 -14,068
5,030 - 14,773
-466
-5,561
1,520
-6,783
4,471
-6,608

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
In the private capital accounts, U.S. claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $34.7 billion in the first
quarter of 1982, compared with a $42.7 billion increase in the fourth quarter of 1981. Much of the increase,
$25.1 billion, reflected activity of International Banking Facilities (IBFs), which were authorized in December 1981.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
60

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
60

-20

-20

-40

-40

-60

I

-60

L

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Foreign assets in the 1 J.S., net
[increas j/eapital inflo\i (+)] 2

U.S. assets abroad, net
[increase/capitall outflow (— )
Period
Total

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

U.S.
official
reserve
assets 12

Other U.S.
Government
assets

U.S.
private
assets

Total

Foreign
official
assets

Other
foreign
assets

-22,874
-34,745
-39,703
-51,269
-34,785
-61,130
-64,344
-86,026
- 109,294

158
- 1,467
§49
-2,558
-375
732
-1,133
-8,155
-5,175

-2,644
366
-3,474
-4,214
-3,693
-4,660
-3,743
-5,126
-5,137

-20,388
-33,643
-35,380
-44,498
-30,717
-57,202
-59,469
-72,746
-98,982

18,388
34,241
15,670
36,518
51,319
64,036
38,460
54,484
77,921

6,026
10,546
7,027
17,693
36,816
33,678
13,697
15,442
4,785

12,362
23,696
8,643
18,826
14,503
30,358
52,157
39,042
73,136

HI
IV

-19,635
-28,512

-1,109
-4,279

-1,390
-1,154

-17,136
-23,079

12,647
25,356

7,541
7,678

-22,796
-21,566
-17,257
-47,677

-4,529
-905
4
262

-1,375
-1,518
-1,257
-987

-16,892
-19,143
-15,996
-46,952

8,470
13,464
16,880
39,107

5,361
-2,861
-5,835
8,119

3,109
16,324
22,715
30,988

1982:

-38,223

-1,089

909

-36,225

25,828

-3,173

29,001

Total (sum
of the items
with sign
reversed)

1,139
1,152
1,093

2,654
-1,620
5,753
10,367
2,465
11,866
25,212
28,870
25,809

5,106
17,677

1981: I
II
HI
IV

Statistical discrepancy
Allocations
of special
drawing
rights
(SDKs)

1980:

I"

1

Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve
position in the IMP.
2
Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.




Of which:
Seasonal
adjustment
discrepancy

assets, net '
(unadjusted,
end of
period)
14,378
15,883
16,226
18,747
19,312
18,650
18,956
26,756
30,075

3,608
2,219

1,093

-2,754
2,605

22,994
26,756

9,988
6,703
-374
9,497

-829
503
2,144
2,474

30,410
29,582
29,716
30,075

11,214

-875

29,944

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the
Treasury.

37

Contents
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING

Page

Gross National Product
Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product
Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures
Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits
National Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Sources of Personal Income
Disposition of Personal Income
Farm Income
Corporate Profits
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment—Nonfarm Business

1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
Status of the Labor Force
Selected Unemployment Rates
Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector

11
12
13
14
15
15
16

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures
New Construction
New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates
Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

17
18
19
19
20
21

PRICES
Producer Prices
Consumer Prices
Changes in Producer Prices
Changes in Consumer Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers

22
23
24
24
25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets
Components of Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets
Consumer Installment Credit
Bank Loans and Investments, and Reserves
Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business
Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations
Interest Rates and Bond Yields
Common Stock Prices and Yields

26
27
27
28
29
29
30
31

FEDERAL FINANCE
Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt
Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function
Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis

32
33
34

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries
U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports
U.S. International Transactions

35
35
36

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O

U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

;

1982

0—96-956


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