Full text of Economic Indicators : January 2005
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109th Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators JANUARY 2005 (Includes data available as of February 10, 2005) Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 2005 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES SENATE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS N. GREGORY MANKIW, Chairman HARVEY S. ROSEN, Member KRISTIN J. FORBES, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—81ST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—1ST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled ‘‘Economic Indicators’’ Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled ‘‘Economic Indicators,’’ and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts prepared under the direction of the Printing and Procurement Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $3.00 a single copy ($3.75 foreign), or by subscription at $33.00 per year ($41.25 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 For sale by the U.S. Government Printing Office Superintendent of Documents, Mail Stop: SSOP, Washington, DC 20402–9328 ii TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT In the fourth quarter of 2004, according to advance estimates, current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) rose 5.3 percent (annual rate), real GDP (GDP in chained 2000 dollars) rose 3.1 percent, and the implicit price deflator rose 2.0 percent. [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1995 ...................... 1996 ...................... 1997 ...................... 1998 ...................... 1999 ...................... 2000 ...................... 2001 ...................... 2002 ...................... 2003 ...................... 2004 p .................... 2001: I ................ II ............... III ............. IV .............. 2002: I ................ II ............... III ............. IV .............. 2003: I ................ II ............... III ............. IV .............. 2004: I ................ II ............... III ............. IV p ............ 1 GDP Exports and imports of goods and services Personal Gross Gross conprivate domestic sumption domestic product expendi- investtures ment Net exports Exports 7,397.7 7,816.9 8,304.3 8,747.0 9,268.4 9,817.0 10,128.0 10,487.0 11,004.0 11,728.0 10,021.5 10,128.9 10,135.1 10,226.3 10,338.2 10,445.7 10,546.5 10,617.5 10,744.6 10,884.0 11,116.7 11,270.9 11,472.6 11,657.5 11,814.9 11,967.0 ¥91.4 ¥96.2 ¥101.6 ¥159.9 ¥260.5 ¥379.5 ¥367.0 ¥424.9 ¥498.1 ¥609.3 ¥392.9 ¥361.7 ¥361.9 ¥351.6 ¥376.3 ¥415.4 ¥431.1 ¥476.6 ¥503.3 ¥497.6 ¥488.8 ¥502.8 ¥546.8 ¥591.3 ¥611.8 ¥687.5 812.2 868.6 955.3 955.9 991.2 1,096.3 1,032.8 1,005.0 1,046.2 1,170.2 1,100.7 1,060.5 1,003.5 966.6 975.0 1,008.1 1,023.4 1,013.5 1,019.8 1,018.1 1,047.7 1,099.2 1,134.3 1,167.6 1,189.5 1,189.6 4,975.8 5,256.8 5,547.4 5,879.5 6,282.5 6,739.4 7,055.0 7,376.1 7,760.9 8,231.1 6,955.8 7,017.5 7,058.5 7,188.4 7,236.9 7,339.3 7,428.0 7,500.0 7,609.8 7,696.3 7,822.5 7,914.9 8,060.2 8,153.8 8,282.5 8,428.1 1,144.0 1,240.3 1,389.8 1,509.1 1,625.7 1,735.5 1,614.3 1,579.2 1,665.8 1,922.4 1,675.3 1,647.7 1,613.0 1,521.4 1,568.5 1,577.0 1,581.3 1,589.9 1,596.6 1,611.1 1,696.6 1,758.8 1,819.7 1,920.7 1,947.0 2,002.2 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Imports Total Total less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. 903.6 964.8 1,056.9 1,115.9 1,251.7 1,475.8 1,399.8 1,429.9 1,544.3 1,779.6 1,493.7 1,422.2 1,365.3 1,318.2 1,351.3 1,423.5 1,454.5 1,490.1 1,523.0 1,515.7 1,536.4 1,602.0 1,681.2 1,758.9 1,801.2 1,877.1 1,369.2 1,416.0 1,468.7 1,518.3 1,620.8 1,721.6 1,825.6 1,956.6 2,075.5 2,183.8 1,783.3 1,825.4 1,825.6 1,868.2 1,909.2 1,944.9 1,968.3 2,004.2 2,041.4 2,074.2 2,086.4 2,100.0 2,139.5 2,174.3 2,197.2 2,224.3 519.2 527.4 530.9 530.4 555.8 578.8 612.9 680.8 752.2 810.0 596.2 610.9 614.3 630.1 654.2 676.6 684.4 708.2 723.4 761.1 756.7 767.5 793.3 804.4 817.4 824.8 National defense 348.7 354.6 349.6 345.7 360.6 370.3 392.6 437.4 496.4 548.1 383.5 388.3 393.0 405.6 418.5 431.7 438.5 461.0 467.4 506.7 498.1 513.6 534.1 541.2 557.0 559.9 Nondefense 170.5 172.8 181.3 184.7 195.2 208.5 220.3 243.4 255.7 261.9 212.7 222.6 221.3 224.5 235.8 244.9 245.9 247.2 256.0 254.4 258.7 253.9 259.1 263.2 260.4 264.9 State and local 850.0 888.6 937.8 987.9 1,065.0 1,142.8 1,212.8 1,275.8 1,323.3 1,373.9 1,187.2 1,214.5 1,211.2 1,238.1 1,255.0 1,268.3 1,283.9 1,296.0 1,318.0 1,313.1 1,329.7 1,332.6 1,346.3 1,369.9 1,379.8 1,399.5 Final sales of domestic product Gross domestic purchases 1 Addendum: Gross national product 7,366.5 7,786.1 8,232.3 8,676.2 9,201.5 9,760.5 10,159.7 10,475.9 11,005.3 11,684.9 10,031.4 10,136.0 10,166.9 10,304.5 10,347.2 10,431.7 10,527.4 10,597.1 10,734.0 10,899.3 11,120.4 11,267.4 11,436.4 11,598.5 11,783.3 11,921.5 7,489.0 7,913.1 8,405.9 8,906.9 9,528.9 10,196.4 10,495.0 10,911.9 11,502.2 12,337.3 10,414.4 10,490.6 10,497.0 10,577.9 10,714.6 10,861.2 10,977.6 11,094.1 11,247.8 11,381.6 11,605.5 11,773.7 12,019.4 12,248.8 12,426.6 12,654.5 7,433.4 7,851.9 8,337.3 8,768.3 9,302.2 9,855.9 10,171.6 10,514.1 11,059.2 .............. 10,060.2 10,173.5 10,151.8 10,300.9 10,361.7 10,461.6 10,571.7 10,661.2 10,781.3 10,929.0 11,168.3 11,358.1 11,546.1 11,693.6 11,853.0 .............. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT [Billions of chained (2000) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross private domestic investment Period 1995 ......... 1996 ......... 1997 ......... 1998 ......... 1999 ......... 2000 ......... 2001 ......... 2002 ......... 2003 ......... 2004 p ........ 2001: I .... II ... III IV .. 2002: I .... II ... III IV .. 2003: I .... II ... III IV .. 2004: I .... II ... III IV p Gross domestic product 8,031.7 8,328.9 8,703.5 9,066.9 9,470.3 9,817.0 9,890.7 10,074.8 10,381.3 10,837.2 9,875.6 9,905.9 9,871.1 9,910.0 9,993.5 10,052.6 10,117.3 10,135.9 10,184.4 10,287.4 10,472.8 10,580.7 10,697.5 10,784.7 10,891.0 10,975.7 Personal conNonresi- Resi- Change sumption dential dential in priexpendifixed fixed vate tures invest- invest- invenment ment tories 5,433.5 5,619.4 5,831.8 6,125.8 6,438.6 6,739.4 6,910.4 7,123.4 7,355.6 7,634.7 6,853.1 6,870.3 6,900.5 7,017.6 7,049.7 7,099.2 7,149.9 7,194.6 7,242.2 7,311.4 7,401.7 7,466.8 7,543.0 7,572.4 7,667.8 7,755.4 762.5 833.6 934.2 1,037.8 1,133.3 1,232.1 1,180.5 1,075.6 1,110.8 1,225.6 1,234.4 1,190.2 1,169.3 1,128.2 1,099.8 1,072.4 1,069.5 1,060.9 1,060.5 1,090.6 1,131.1 1,161.0 1,173.0 1,207.9 1,245.3 1,276.3 353.1 381.3 388.6 418.3 443.6 446.9 448.5 470.0 511.2 559.6 444.0 450.1 452.1 447.8 457.8 470.3 473.6 478.5 487.3 497.9 523.8 535.9 542.5 563.6 565.9 566.3 29.9 28.7 71.2 72.6 68.9 56.5 ¥31.7 11.7 ¥.8 45.3 ¥7.8 ¥2.5 ¥29.9 ¥86.7 ¥7.4 7.9 22.7 23.8 9.6 ¥17.6 ¥3.5 8.6 40.0 61.1 34.5 45.8 Exports and imports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total ¥71.0 ¥79.6 ¥104.6 ¥203.7 ¥296.2 ¥379.5 ¥399.1 ¥472.1 ¥518.5 ¥586.4 ¥398.2 ¥385.2 ¥398.4 ¥414.5 ¥444.9 ¥458.1 ¥469.8 ¥515.4 ¥511.7 ¥525.2 ¥508.7 ¥528.3 ¥550.1 ¥580.3 ¥583.2 ¥631.9 778.2 843.4 943.7 966.5 1,008.2 1,096.3 1,036.7 1,012.3 1,031.8 1,115.3 1,097.2 1,060.6 1,008.7 980.3 991.6 1,017.8 1,025.5 1,014.5 1,010.6 1,006.5 1,033.8 1,076.2 1,095.4 1,114.8 1,131.1 1,120.0 849.1 923.0 1,048.3 1,170.3 1,304.4 1,475.8 1,435.8 1,484.4 1,550.3 1,701.7 1,495.4 1,445.8 1,407.1 1,394.9 1,436.5 1,475.9 1,495.3 1,529.8 1,522.3 1,531.7 1,542.5 1,604.5 1,645.5 1,695.1 1,714.3 1,751.9 1,549.7 1,564.9 1,594.0 1,624.4 1,686.9 1,721.6 1,780.3 1,857.9 1,909.4 1,946.7 1,749.6 1,783.0 1,776.1 1,812.7 1,833.5 1,853.4 1,863.1 1,881.6 1,882.5 1,915.3 1,916.0 1,923.7 1,935.8 1,946.5 1,949.9 1,954.5 1 GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2000) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Total National defense Nondefense 580.3 573.5 567.6 561.2 573.7 578.8 601.4 646.6 689.6 721.9 588.5 601.4 601.5 614.2 626.4 645.5 650.1 664.5 665.0 699.0 693.1 701.2 713.3 718.1 726.6 729.5 389.2 383.8 373.0 365.3 372.2 370.3 384.9 414.6 451.8 485.1 377.9 381.9 384.1 395.6 401.3 412.3 415.8 429.2 426.2 462.3 453.1 465.7 477.6 479.9 491.5 491.5 191.0 189.6 194.5 195.9 201.5 208.5 216.5 232.0 237.6 236.4 210.6 219.5 217.3 218.6 225.2 233.2 234.3 235.3 238.8 236.5 239.9 235.2 235.4 237.9 234.7 237.6 State and local 968.3 990.5 1,025.9 1,063.0 1,113.2 1,142.8 1,179.0 1,211.4 1,219.8 1,224.7 1,161.1 1,181.6 1,174.6 1,198.5 1,207.2 1,208.0 1,213.1 1,217.3 1,217.7 1,216.3 1,222.9 1,222.5 1,222.4 1,228.3 1,223.2 1,224.9 Final sales of domestic product Gross domestic purchases 1 Addendum: Gross national product 8,010.2 8,306.5 8,636.6 8,997.6 9,404.0 9,760.5 9,920.9 10,063.2 10,379.9 10,790.2 9,883.2 9,908.7 9,899.9 9,992.3 10,000.4 10,044.9 10,095.2 10,112.5 10,173.3 10,302.5 10,473.9 10,569.6 10,655.8 10,722.3 10,854.7 10,928.1 8,098.4 8,405.7 8,807.6 9,272.5 9,767.7 10,196.4 10,290.1 10,544.6 10,895.7 11,416.8 10,273.2 10,291.3 10,270.1 10,325.6 10,437.7 10,508.9 10,584.8 10,646.7 10,692.0 10,808.1 10,978.3 11,104.3 11,241.9 11,358.1 11,467.4 11,599.6 8,069.8 8,365.3 8,737.5 9,088.7 9,504.7 9,855.9 9,933.6 10,101.7 10,433.9 .............. 9,913.6 9,949.8 9,887.7 9,983.1 10,017.2 10,068.9 10,142.4 10,178.4 10,220.3 10,330.8 10,521.7 10,663.3 10,766.7 10,818.7 10,926.5 .............. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT [Index numbers, 2000=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Personal consumption expenditures Period 1995 ................. 1996 ................. 1997 ................. 1998 ................. 1999 ................. 2000 ................. 2001 ................. 2002 ................. 2003 ................. 2004 p ................ 2001: I ............ II ........... III ......... IV .......... 2002: I ............ II ........... III ......... IV .......... 2003: I ............ II ........... III ......... IV .......... 2004: I ............ II ........... III ......... IV p ........ Gross domestic product 92.106 93.852 95.414 96.472 97.868 100.000 102.399 104.092 105.998 108.220 101.478 102.252 102.675 103.191 103.450 103.911 104.243 104.752 105.500 105.799 106.148 106.523 107.246 108.093 108.482 109.033 Total 91.576 93.547 95.124 95.979 97.575 100.000 102.094 103.547 105.510 107.813 101.499 102.143 102.289 102.434 102.656 103.382 103.890 104.245 105.076 105.265 105.685 106.000 106.856 107.679 108.016 108.673 Durable goods Nondurable goods 110.672 109.507 107.068 104.152 101.625 100.000 98.113 95.475 92.244 90.414 99.155 98.390 97.689 97.298 96.349 95.749 95.255 94.588 93.720 92.826 91.799 90.788 90.783 90.767 90.049 90.089 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2 90.629 92.566 93.835 93.821 96.174 100.000 101.531 102.097 104.153 107.617 101.257 102.123 101.898 100.855 100.861 102.190 102.517 102.810 104.104 103.516 104.418 104.560 105.909 107.611 107.864 109.043 Gross private domestic investment Services 88.320 90.844 93.304 95.318 97.393 100.000 103.256 106.084 109.237 111.984 102.145 102.994 103.509 104.365 104.957 105.686 106.518 107.146 108.153 108.988 109.525 110.263 111.080 111.663 112.310 112.857 Nonresidential fixed 106.239 105.011 103.696 101.421 100.057 100.000 99.683 98.913 98.547 99.348 99.607 99.744 99.817 99.561 99.238 98.957 98.643 98.801 98.668 98.354 98.431 98.728 98.792 99.220 99.449 99.880 Exports and imports of Government consumption expenditures goods and services and gross investment Federal Residential fixed 85.770 87.609 89.843 92.239 95.780 100.000 104.633 107.246 111.952 118.245 102.628 103.885 105.631 106.366 106.156 106.699 107.110 108.959 110.748 111.214 112.054 113.630 115.133 117.664 119.627 120.422 Exports Imports Total 104.376 102.987 101.233 98.905 98.313 100.000 99.625 99.275 101.396 104.924 100.322 99.988 99.482 98.597 98.325 99.050 99.795 99.903 100.911 101.149 101.343 102.133 103.550 104.732 105.161 106.218 106.411 104.529 100.816 95.354 95.960 100.000 97.497 96.326 99.615 104.576 99.885 98.365 97.034 94.504 94.068 96.450 97.272 97.401 100.051 98.956 99.607 99.840 102.165 103.763 105.068 107.145 89.479 91.957 93.533 94.512 96.883 100.000 101.908 105.288 109.082 112.201 101.306 101.582 102.135 102.579 104.433 104.804 105.268 106.585 108.795 108.887 109.180 109.449 111.205 112.022 112.493 113.061 National defense Nondefense State and local 89.598 92.379 93.716 94.643 96.886 100.000 102.002 105.489 109.876 112.975 101.488 101.673 102.306 102.515 104.286 104.698 105.445 107.413 109.676 109.608 109.917 110.283 111.830 112.795 113.323 113.917 89.282 91.146 93.192 94.269 96.880 100.000 101.738 104.932 107.632 110.793 100.981 101.419 101.834 102.696 104.695 104.991 104.944 105.088 107.191 107.577 107.839 107.919 110.097 110.616 110.971 111.485 87.785 89.717 91.414 92.935 95.667 100.000 102.868 105.318 108.485 112.177 102.243 102.785 103.117 103.311 103.961 104.997 105.834 106.466 108.235 107.958 108.736 109.007 110.130 111.523 112.802 114.253 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES: INDEXES AND PERCENT CHANGES [Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Percent change from preceding period 1 Index numbers, 2000=100 Real GDP (chain-type quantity index) Period 1995 ...................................................................................... 1996 ...................................................................................... 1997 ...................................................................................... 1998 ...................................................................................... 1999 ...................................................................................... 2000 ...................................................................................... 2001 ...................................................................................... 2002 ...................................................................................... 2003 ...................................................................................... 2004 p .................................................................................... 2001: I ................................................................................ II ............................................................................... III ............................................................................. IV .............................................................................. 2002: I ................................................................................ II ............................................................................... III ............................................................................. IV .............................................................................. 2003: I ................................................................................ II ............................................................................... III ............................................................................. IV .............................................................................. 2004: I ................................................................................ II ............................................................................... III ............................................................................. IV p ............................................................................ 1 Quarterly 81.814 84.842 88.658 92.359 96.469 100.000 100.751 102.626 105.749 110.393 100.597 100.906 100.551 100.948 101.798 102.400 103.059 103.249 103.743 104.792 106.681 107.780 108.969 109.858 110.941 111.803 GDP chain-type price index 92.115 93.859 95.415 96.475 97.868 100.000 102.402 104.097 106.003 108.281 101.507 102.290 102.690 103.122 103.470 103.853 104.280 104.786 105.490 105.780 106.158 106.586 107.314 108.169 108.551 109.091 percent changes are at annual rates. GDP implicit price deflator GDP (current dollars) 92.106 93.852 95.414 96.472 97.868 100.000 102.399 104.092 105.998 108.220 101.478 102.252 102.675 103.191 103.450 103.911 104.243 104.752 105.500 105.799 106.148 106.523 107.246 108.093 108.482 109.033 4.6 5.7 6.2 5.3 6.0 5.9 3.2 3.5 4.9 6.6 2.8 4.4 .2 3.6 4.5 4.2 3.9 2.7 4.9 5.3 8.8 5.7 7.4 6.6 5.5 5.3 Real GDP (chain-type quantity index) GDP chain-type price index 2.5 3.7 4.5 4.2 4.5 3.7 .8 1.9 3.0 4.4 ¥.5 1.2 ¥1.4 1.6 3.4 2.4 2.6 .7 1.9 4.1 7.4 4.2 4.5 3.3 4.0 3.1 GDP implicit price deflator 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.4 2.2 2.4 1.7 1.8 2.1 3.3 3.1 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.7 1.1 1.4 1.6 2.8 3.2 1.4 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.4 2.2 2.4 1.7 1.8 2.1 3.3 3.1 1.7 2.0 1.0 1.8 1.3 2.0 2.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 2.7 3.2 1.4 2.0 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS–GROSS VALUE ADDED AND PRICE, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Price per unit of real gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business (dollars) 1 2 Gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars)1 Unit nonlabor cost Period 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2001: ........................................................ ........................................................ ........................................................ ........................................................ ........................................................ ........................................................ ........................................................ ........................................................ ........................................................ ........................................................ I ................................................... II ................................................. III ................................................ IV ................................................ 2002: I ................................................... II ................................................. III ................................................ IV ................................................ 2003: I ................................................... II ................................................. III ................................................ IV ................................................ 2004: I ................................................... II ................................................. III ................................................ Current dollars Chained (2000) dollars 3,669.5 3,879.5 4,109.5 4,401.8 4,655.0 4,950.8 5,272.2 5,293.5 5,377.7 5,606.8 5,315.8 5,321.3 5,279.1 5,257.7 5,309.6 5,375.6 5,392.8 5,432.9 5,443.0 5,547.8 5,669.0 5,767.5 5,839.4 5,955.5 6,036.7 3,797.9 3,977.4 4,196.4 4,469.3 4,725.4 5,011.0 5,272.2 5,224.5 5,275.9 5,423.0 5,285.9 5,256.7 5,197.6 5,158.0 5,225.7 5,279.7 5,294.6 5,303.5 5,294.8 5,373.1 5,471.9 5,552.0 5,598.7 5,657.4 5,731.7 Total Compensation of employees (unit labor cost) 0.966 .975 .979 .985 .985 .988 1.000 1.013 1.019 1.034 1.006 1.012 1.016 1.019 1.016 1.018 1.019 1.024 1.028 1.033 1.036 1.039 1.043 1.053 1.053 1 Estimates for nonfinancial corporate business for 2000 and earlier periods are based on the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC); later estimates are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). 2 The implicit price deflator for gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business divided by 100. 0.627 .631 .627 .629 .645 .652 .672 .688 .683 .682 .684 .686 .690 .693 .683 .683 .682 .682 .685 .683 .679 .679 .682 .686 .685 Total 0.230 .230 .228 .228 .226 .229 .237 .257 .257 .258 .249 .254 .261 .263 .259 .257 .257 .257 .259 .257 .256 .255 .253 .253 .255 Consumption of fixed capital Taxes on production and imports 3 Net interest and miscellaneous payments 0.103 .104 .104 .105 .104 .105 .108 .124 .124 .125 .117 .121 .132 .126 .124 .124 .124 .125 .126 .125 .124 .123 .120 .120 .127 0.100 .097 .097 .095 .092 .092 .093 .094 .099 .101 .094 .094 .089 .098 .098 .098 .099 .099 .101 .100 .101 .101 .102 .102 .097 0.027 .029 .027 .028 .030 .032 .036 .039 .034 .032 .038 .039 .040 .039 .037 .035 .034 .033 .032 .032 .031 .031 .031 .031 .031 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments 4 Total 0.110 .114 .125 .128 .114 .107 .090 .068 .079 .095 .073 .072 .066 .063 .074 .079 .080 .085 .083 .093 .100 .104 .108 .113 .113 Taxes on corporate income 0.035 .035 .036 .036 .034 .034 .032 .021 .017 .024 .024 .024 .021 .016 .014 .016 .018 .019 .023 .022 .024 .026 .026 .029 .029 Profits after tax 5 0.075 .078 .088 .092 .080 .073 .058 .047 .062 .071 .049 .048 .044 .047 .060 .062 .062 .066 .060 .071 .076 .078 .082 .084 .084 3 Less subsidies plus business current transfer payments. profits from current production. inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4 Unit 5 With 3 NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Proprietors’ income 1 Period 1995 ............ 1996 ............ 1997 ............ 1998 ............ 1999 ............ 2000 ............ 2001 ............ 2002 ............ 2003 ............ 2004 p ........... 2001: I ....... II ...... III .... IV ..... 2002: I ....... II ...... III .... IV ..... 2003: I ....... II ...... III .... IV ..... 2004: I ....... II ...... III .... IV p ... National income 6,453.9 6,840.1 7,292.2 7,752.8 8,236.7 8,795.2 8,979.8 9,225.4 9,679.6 .................. 8,987.6 9,001.5 8,890.3 9,039.9 9,136.5 9,222.3 9,241.6 9,301.3 9,407.7 9,568.8 9,771.1 9,971.1 10,128.1 10,262.0 10,264.7 .................. Compensation of employees Farm 4,193.3 4,390.5 4,661.7 5,019.4 5,357.1 5,782.7 5,942.1 6,069.5 6,289.0 6,616.6 5,946.2 5,944.6 5,939.3 5,938.3 6,010.2 6,068.3 6,086.0 6,113.4 6,179.1 6,245.6 6,324.7 6,406.7 6,489.4 6,578.5 6,657.4 6,741.1 Nonfarm 22.7 37.3 34.2 29.4 28.6 22.7 19.7 9.7 21.8 18.0 21.9 19.2 17.7 20.0 10.8 10.4 8.7 8.8 13.8 24.1 24.8 24.7 17.9 18.9 13.6 21.6 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment 469.5 505.9 541.8 598.4 649.7 705.7 752.2 759.9 812.3 884.4 747.5 751.5 755.7 754.1 751.4 758.6 761.7 767.9 780.2 801.6 827.2 840.0 854.2 882.5 889.3 911.6 122.1 131.5 128.8 137.5 147.3 150.3 167.4 170.9 153.8 165.6 155.3 161.7 176.4 176.2 179.7 184.7 165.4 153.8 155.5 144.1 148.8 167.1 172.8 172.6 153.8 163.1 Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total 696.7 786.2 868.5 801.6 851.3 817.9 767.3 874.6 1,021.1 ............ 778.7 783.1 714.5 793.0 838.2 868.4 876.2 915.4 912.0 986.2 1,057.1 1,129.1 1,165.6 1,173.9 1,118.0 ............ Total Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment 656.0 736.1 812.3 738.5 776.8 759.3 719.2 756.8 860.4 ............ 750.5 756.0 689.1 681.3 711.7 747.5 761.2 806.8 798.7 823.5 877.2 941.9 925.4 940.6 895.0 ............ 674.3 733.0 798.2 718.3 775.9 773.4 707.9 758.0 874.5 ............ 754.6 755.0 671.1 650.9 695.8 745.9 773.0 817.4 826.1 824.5 881.0 966.2 962.4 988.3 932.8 ............ ¥18.3 3.1 14.1 20.2 1.0 ¥14.1 11.3 ¥1.2 ¥14.1 .............. ¥4.1 1.1 18.0 30.4 15.9 1.6 ¥11.8 ¥10.6 ¥27.4 ¥1.0 ¥3.8 ¥24.3 ¥37.0 ¥47.8 ¥37.8 .............. Capital consumption adjustment 40.7 50.1 56.2 63.1 74.5 58.6 48.1 117.8 160.8 239.4 28.2 27.1 25.4 111.7 126.6 121.0 115.0 108.6 113.3 162.7 179.9 187.2 240.2 233.3 223.0 261.2 Net interest and miscellaneous pay ments Taxes on production and imports 367.1 376.2 415.6 487.1 495.4 559.0 566.3 532.9 543.0 548.2 565.2 569.9 565.5 564.8 549.2 527.3 526.8 528.3 541.3 542.8 542.8 545.3 554.5 548.5 546.7 543.0 558.2 581.1 612.0 639.8 674.0 708.9 728.6 762.6 798.1 840.1 725.1 726.3 725.6 737.6 747.3 760.1 771.2 771.8 783.5 792.9 802.0 813.9 823.3 835.7 843.1 858.1 Less: Subsidies Busness current transfer payments Current surplus of government enterprises 34.0 34.3 32.9 35.4 44.2 44.3 55.3 38.2 46.7 39.9 52.3 58.4 67.3 43.1 38.9 36.8 38.4 38.7 42.8 55.2 44.5 44.4 40.4 39.4 39.7 40.2 46.9 53.1 49.9 64.7 67.4 87.1 92.8 80.9 77.7 81.7 98.3 104.8 65.7 102.5 89.6 81.3 78.0 74.6 74.8 76.9 78.9 80.1 82.7 83.5 76.0 84.4 11.4 12.7 12.6 10.3 10.1 5.3 ¥1.4 2.8 9.5 6.7 1.7 ¥1.1 ¥2.9 ¥3.4 ¥.9 ¥.1 6.0 6.0 10.3 9.8 9.3 8.7 8.1 7.4 6.5 4.7 1 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of chained (2000) dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Durable goods Period Total personal consumption expenditures Total durable goods Motor vehicles and parts Furniture and household equipment Nondurable goods Other Total nondurable goods Food Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil Services Fuel oil and coal Other Total services 1 Housing Medical care Retail sales of new passenger cars and light trucks (millions of units) 1995 ............... 1996 ............... 1997 ............... 1998 ............... 1999 ............... 2000 ............... 2001 ............... 2002 ............... 2003 ............... 2004 p .............. 5,433.5 5,619.4 5,831.8 6,125.8 6,438.6 6,739.4 6,910.4 7,123.4 7,355.6 7,634.7 552.6 595.9 646.9 720.3 804.6 863.3 900.7 959.6 1,030.6 1,101.3 272.3 285.4 304.7 339.0 372.4 386.5 405.8 428.7 452.1 467.4 173.3 193.4 216.3 244.7 280.7 312.9 331.8 360.7 393.5 439.7 111.2 119.6 127.3 137.6 151.7 163.9 163.2 170.9 186.5 198.7 1,638.6 1,680.4 1,725.3 1,794.4 1,876.6 1,947.2 1,986.7 2,037.4 2,112.4 2,208.3 827.1 834.7 845.2 865.6 893.6 925.2 940.2 958.4 995.1 1,042.8 227.4 238.7 246.0 263.1 282.7 297.7 303.7 316.7 330.2 352.3 154.5 157.9 162.8 170.3 176.3 175.7 178.3 180.7 182.0 181.4 18.7 18.4 16.9 16.0 16.4 15.8 15.2 15.4 15.4 16.2 414.1 432.9 456.6 481.1 508.6 532.9 549.2 566.3 589.6 617.3 3,259.9 3,356.0 3,468.0 3,615.0 3,758.0 3,928.8 4,023.2 4,128.6 4,220.3 4,339.0 887.5 901.1 922.5 948.8 978.6 1,006.5 1,033.7 1,062.0 1,076.1 1,094.7 906.4 922.5 942.8 970.7 989.0 1,026.8 1,075.2 1,139.3 1,184.3 1,228.4 14.7 15.1 15.1 15.5 16.9 17.3 17.1 16.8 16.6 16.9 2001: I .......... II ......... III ....... IV ........ 2002: I .......... II ......... III ....... IV ........ 2003: I .......... II ......... III ....... IV ........ 2004: I .......... II ......... III ....... IV p ...... 6,853.1 6,870.3 6,900.5 7,017.6 7,049.7 7,099.2 7,149.9 7,194.6 7,242.2 7,311.4 7,401.7 7,466.8 7,543.0 7,572.4 7,667.8 7,755.4 879.5 878.9 885.6 958.7 937.8 947.8 979.3 973.4 973.2 1,020.0 1,059.6 1,069.7 1,075.5 1,074.7 1,118.3 1,136.6 392.6 388.6 392.7 449.4 415.1 418.6 447.1 433.9 428.0 451.3 465.6 463.5 456.7 449.6 478.9 484.5 323.8 328.1 332.2 343.0 354.4 360.1 361.2 367.2 369.3 385.2 405.0 414.6 425.6 433.3 445.4 454.6 163.3 162.6 161.2 165.6 169.2 170.3 170.9 173.2 177.0 184.4 190.5 194.0 196.9 196.8 198.5 202.4 1,975.2 1,974.7 1,986.5 2,010.3 2,029.3 2,033.2 2,030.2 2,056.8 2,082.0 2,090.1 2,125.3 2,152.0 2,187.3 2,188.0 2,213.2 2,244.7 937.1 938.3 940.6 945.0 951.4 958.4 958.0 965.8 981.4 988.0 1,002.2 1,008.6 1,028.4 1,034.3 1,045.4 1,063.0 300.5 301.8 302.9 309.8 316.4 316.2 312.9 321.2 320.6 327.1 334.9 338.2 351.2 346.5 351.6 359.9 180.4 173.5 176.1 183.1 183.3 178.4 178.0 183.0 184.5 177.8 179.1 186.4 186.0 179.0 179.8 180.6 16.0 14.9 15.0 14.7 14.6 15.3 15.4 16.3 15.0 14.3 15.5 16.9 16.1 16.1 16.6 15.8 540.8 546.0 551.7 558.4 564.4 564.7 565.5 570.7 579.9 582.8 593.6 602.1 606.6 613.4 621.4 627.7 3,997.9 4,016.0 4,027.8 4,051.2 4,084.1 4,119.7 4,143.8 4,166.9 4,188.7 4,207.7 4,227.9 4,256.7 4,291.7 4,320.0 4,352.4 4,391.8 1,024.4 1,031.2 1,036.5 1,042.8 1,052.8 1,060.8 1,065.5 1,068.7 1,071.6 1,074.3 1,078.1 1,080.3 1,086.0 1,091.5 1,097.9 1,103.4 1,053.5 1,065.7 1,082.7 1,099.1 1,117.1 1,132.5 1,147.0 1,160.5 1,170.0 1,179.7 1,189.3 1,198.3 1,207.9 1,221.0 1,236.1 1,248.5 17.2 16.7 16.1 18.5 16.6 16.5 17.4 16.6 16.1 16.4 17.2 16.8 16.5 16.5 17.1 17.2 1 Includes other items, not shown separately. NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2000) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. 4 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $360.9 billion (annual rate) in December. Excluding the payment of a special dividend by the Microsoft Corporation, personal income increased $62.7 billion in December. Wages and salaries rose $23.1 billion in December. [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Compensation of employees, received Period 1995 ................. 1996 ................. 1997 ................. 1998 ................. 1999 ................. 2000 ................. 2001 ................. 2002 ................. 2003 ................. 2004 p ................ 2003: Dec ........ 2004: Jan ........ Feb ........ Mar ....... Apr ........ May ....... June ...... July ....... Aug ....... Sept ....... Oct r ....... Nov r ...... Dec p* ..... 1 With 2 With Total personal income Total 6,152.3 6,520.6 6,915.1 7,423.0 7,802.4 8,429.7 8,724.1 8,878.9 9,161.8 9,659.1 9,375.3 9,404.1 9,445.9 9,484.9 9,550.0 9,603.8 9,624.2 9,642.6 9,679.7 9,700.7 9,776.7 9,818.1 10,179.0 4,177.0 4,386.9 4,664.6 5,020.1 5,352.0 5,782.7 5,942.1 6,069.5 6,289.0 6,616.6 6,421.2 6,461.1 6,490.3 6,512.4 6,553.0 6,593.0 6,594.1 6,630.4 6,657.5 6,684.2 6,721.1 6,737.2 6,765.1 Wage and salary disbursements 3,419.3 3,619.6 3,877.6 4,183.4 4,466.3 4,829.2 4,942.8 4,976.3 5,103.6 5,342.6 5,197.3 5,221.4 5,241.3 5,254.8 5,290.8 5,325.0 5,322.7 5,353.6 5,375.1 5,396.5 5,427.8 5,439.4 5,462.5 inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. capital consumption adjustment. mainly of social insurance benefits to persons. 3 Consists Supplements to wages and salaries 757.7 767.3 787.0 836.7 885.7 953.4 999.3 1,093.2 1,185.5 1,274.1 1,223.9 1,239.8 1,249.0 1,257.6 1,262.2 1,268.0 1,271.4 1,276.9 1,282.4 1,287.8 1,293.3 1,297.8 1,302.7 Proprietors’ income 1 Farm 22.7 37.3 34.2 29.4 28.6 22.7 19.7 9.7 21.8 18.0 24.5 18.5 17.8 17.5 18.3 19.0 19.5 15.0 13.6 12.3 18.3 22.1 24.3 Nonfarm 469.5 505.9 541.8 598.4 649.7 705.7 752.2 759.9 812.3 884.4 845.7 844.3 852.2 866.0 875.3 882.2 889.9 890.6 891.3 885.8 902.5 910.3 921.9 Personal income receipts on assets Rental income of persons 2 122.1 131.5 128.8 137.5 147.3 150.3 167.4 170.9 153.8 165.6 175.7 174.1 172.6 171.8 172.0 172.8 172.9 170.5 156.8 134.2 164.0 162.6 162.6 Total 1,016.4 1,089.2 1,181.7 1,283.2 1,264.2 1,387.0 1,380.0 1,334.6 1,322.7 1,386.6 1,334.4 1,335.5 1,337.0 1,338.8 1,345.4 1,352.2 1,359.4 1,363.6 1,367.8 1,372.1 1,381.1 1,389.9 1,696.9 Personal interest income 763.2 793.0 848.7 933.2 928.6 1,011.0 1,011.0 946.7 929.9 945.6 939.0 937.6 936.2 934.8 938.2 941.7 945.1 945.8 946.5 947.2 952.6 957.9 963.3 Personal dividend income 253.2 296.2 333.0 349.9 335.6 376.1 369.0 387.9 392.8 441.1 395.3 397.9 400.8 404.0 407.1 410.6 414.3 417.8 421.3 424.9 428.5 431.9 733.6 Personal current transfer receipts 3 877.4 925.0 951.2 978.6 1,022.1 1,084.0 1,193.9 1,282.7 1,335.4 1,406.3 1,360.2 1,371.7 1,380.5 1,384.7 1,396.6 1,400.6 1,404.1 1,392.4 1,415.7 1,438.1 1,419.9 1,428.0 1,442.8 Less: Contributions for government social insurance 532.8 555.2 587.2 624.2 661.4 702.7 731.1 748.3 773.2 818.3 786.3 801.1 804.4 806.3 810.5 815.9 815.7 819.9 823.1 826.0 830.3 831.9 834.6 * Personal income data for December 2004 reflect the payment of a special dividend by the Microsoft Corporation. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5 DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME According to advance estimates, per capita disposable personal income in chained (2000) dollars rose at an annual rate of 7.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2004. Period Personal income Less: Personal current taxes Equals: Disposable personal income Less: Personal outlays 1 Equals: Personal saving Disposable personal income in billions of chained (2000) dollars Per capita disposable personal income Current dollars Billions of dollars 1995 .............. 1996 .............. 1997 .............. 1998 .............. 1999 .............. 2000 r ............ 2001 r ............ 2002 r ............ 2003 r ............ 2004 p ............ 6,152.3 6,520.6 6,915.1 7,423.0 7,802.4 8,429.7 8,724.1 8,878.9 9,161.8 9,659.1 744.1 832.1 926.3 1,027.0 1,107.5 1,235.7 1,237.3 1,051.2 1,001.9 1,036.4 5,408.2 5,688.5 5,988.8 6,395.9 6,695.0 7,194.0 7,486.8 7,827.7 8,159.9 8,622.8 Chained (2000) dollars Per capita personal consumption expenditures Current dollars Chained (2000) dollars Dollars 5,157.3 5,460.0 5,770.5 6,119.1 6,536.4 7,025.6 7,354.5 7,668.5 8,049.3 8,532.8 250.9 228.4 218.3 276.8 158.6 168.5 132.3 159.2 110.6 90.0 5,905.7 6,080.9 6,295.8 6,663.9 6,861.3 7,194.0 7,333.3 7,559.5 7,733.8 7,997.9 20,287 21,091 21,940 23,161 23,968 25,472 26,236 27,159 28,034 29,334 Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population, including Armed Forces overseas (thousands) 2 Percent 22,153 22,546 23,065 24,131 24,564 25,472 25,698 26,229 26,570 27,208 18,665 19,490 20,323 21,291 22,491 23,862 24,723 25,592 26,663 28,002 20,382 20,835 21,365 22,183 23,050 23,862 24,216 24,715 25,270 25,973 1.6 1.8 2.3 4.6 1.8 3.7 .9 2.1 1.3 2.4 4.6 4.0 3.6 4.3 2.4 2.3 1.8 2.0 1.4 1.0 266,588 269,714 272,958 276,154 279,328 282,429 285,366 288,217 291,073 293,951 25,620 25,450 26,081 25,640 26,249 26,366 26,181 26,123 26,179 26,392 26,842 26,862 26,964 27,088 27,148 27,630 24,469 24,626 24,703 25,090 25,202 25,500 25,740 25,922 26,243 26,479 26,841 27,086 27,521 27,778 28,142 28,562 24,108 24,110 24,150 24,494 24,550 24,666 24,777 24,867 24,975 25,155 25,397 25,552 25,755 25,797 26,053 26,283 0.3 ¥2.6 10.3 ¥6.6 9.8 1.8 ¥2.8 ¥.9 .9 3.3 7.0 .3 1.5 1.9 .9 7.3 1.9 1.2 3.4 .5 2.7 2.7 1.6 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.9 1.3 1.0 1.3 .5 1.3 284,265 284,959 285,736 286,502 287,154 287,812 288,575 289,328 289,977 290,656 291,442 292,217 292,872 293,540 294,315 295,077 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 2001: I r ....... II r ...... III r .... IV r ..... 2002: I r ....... II r ...... III r .... IV r ..... 2003: I r ....... II r ...... III r .... IV r ..... 2004: I r ....... II r ...... III r .... IV p ..... 8,688.7 8,719.9 8,733.1 8,754.8 8,803.6 8,897.1 8,895.7 8,919.2 9,002.2 9,105.7 9,209.3 9,330.0 9,445.0 9,592.7 9,674.3 9,924.6 1,296.6 1,312.3 1,110.3 1,230.0 1,065.8 1,052.1 1,046.7 1,040.3 1,025.7 1,030.7 941.7 1,009.4 1,006.6 1,030.6 1,043.7 1,064.5 7,392.1 7,407.6 7,622.8 7,524.8 7,737.8 7,845.0 7,849.0 7,878.8 7,976.5 8,075.0 8,267.6 8,320.5 8,438.4 8,562.1 8,630.7 8,860.0 7,253.5 7,318.8 7,361.2 7,484.4 7,528.5 7,635.0 7,722.9 7,787.6 7,897.0 7,982.9 8,107.8 8,209.4 8,351.6 8,448.7 8,588.1 8,742.8 138.6 88.7 261.6 40.5 209.3 210.0 126.1 91.2 79.5 92.1 159.8 111.1 86.8 113.4 42.6 117.2 7,283.0 7,252.1 7,452.2 7,346.0 7,537.6 7,588.4 7,555.1 7,558.0 7,591.2 7,671.1 7,822.9 7,849.6 7,897.0 7,951.5 7,990.2 8,152.9 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, personal interest payments (nonmortgage), and personal current transfer payments. 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. 6 26,004 25,995 26,678 26,264 26,947 27,257 27,199 27,231 27,507 27,782 28,368 28,474 28,813 29,168 29,325 30,026 Note.—Per capita series reflect revised population data beginning 2000. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME According to the current forecast for 2004, gross farm income is forecast to increase $28.6 billion, and net farm income, $14.5 billion. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from farming Gross farm income Period Cash marketing receipts Total 1 Total 1994 ................................ 1995 ................................ 1996 ................................ 1997 ................................ 1998 ................................ 1999 ................................ 2000 ................................ 2001 ................................ 2002 ................................ 2003 ................................ 2004 p .............................. 2002: I .......................... II ......................... III ........................ IV ........................ 2003: I .......................... II ......................... III ........................ IV ........................ 2004: I p ........................ II p ........................ III p ...................... IV p ....................... 216.1 210.8 235.8 238.2 232.4 234.5 241.3 248.3 230.7 256.9 285.5 229.4 227.1 226.5 239.9 269.3 254.9 242.2 261.1 332.4 289.5 262.4 257.7 181.4 188.2 199.4 207.9 196.4 187.7 192.1 200.1 195.1 211.6 233.4 184.5 198.0 196.9 200.9 208.9 218.8 206.8 212.1 260.8 245.4 221.2 206.2 Livestock and products 88.3 87.2 92.9 96.5 94.2 95.7 99.6 106.7 93.8 105.5 121.5 89.4 92.4 96.2 97.2 106.6 108.1 106.5 100.7 125.9 138.9 118.2 103.0 1 Cash marketing receipts, Government payments, value of changes in inventories, other farm related cash income, and nonmoney income produced by farms including imputed rent of operator residences. 2 Crop receipts include proceeds received from commodities placed under Commodity Credit Corporation loans. 3 Physical changes in beginning and ending year inventories of crop and livestock commodities valued at weighted average market prices during the period. Crops 2 93.1 101.0 106.5 111.4 102.2 92.1 92.5 93.4 101.3 106.2 111.9 95.0 105.6 100.7 103.8 102.3 110.7 100.3 111.4 134.9 106.5 103.0 103.2 Value of inventory changes 3 8.3 ¥5.0 7.9 .6 ¥.6 ¥.2 1.6 1.1 ¥3.3 .8 6.6 ¥3.1 ¥3.4 ¥3.3 ¥3.4 .8 .8 .8 .8 7.3 6.9 6.2 5.8 Direct Government payments 4 Production expenses 7.9 7.3 7.3 7.5 12.4 21.5 22.9 20.7 11.0 15.9 15.7 21.6 4.1 4.7 13.5 31.4 5.9 6.8 19.7 30.9 5.8 6.7 19.4 164.8 171.2 177.9 186.9 185.9 187.4 193.4 197.7 193.4 197.6 211.8 182.9 196.3 195.2 199.3 195.1 204.3 193.1 198.1 236.7 222.7 200.7 187.1 Net farm income 51.3 39.6 57.9 51.3 46.5 47.1 47.9 50.6 37.3 59.2 73.7 46.5 30.8 31.2 40.6 74.1 50.6 49.1 63.1 95.7 66.8 61.7 70.6 4 Includes only Government payments made directly to farmers. NOTE.—Data for 2004 are forecasts. Source: Department of Agriculture. 7 CORPORATE PROFITS In the third quarter of 2004, according to current estimates, corporate profits before tax fell $55.5 billion (annual rate) and profits after tax fell $37.6 billion. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment 1 Profits after tax Domestic industries Period Profits before tax Nonfinancial Total 2 Total Financial Total 3 Manufacturing Utilities Wholesale Retail Taxes on corporate income Total Net dividends Undistributed profits Inventory valuation adjustment .............. .............. .............. .............. 656.0 736.1 812.3 738.5 563.2 634.2 701.4 635.5 162.2 172.6 193.0 165.9 401.0 461.6 508.4 469.6 173.7 188.8 209.0 173.5 ................ ................ ................ ................ 27.3 39.8 47.6 52.3 43.1 51.9 64.2 73.4 674.3 733.0 798.2 718.3 218.7 231.7 246.1 248.3 455.6 501.4 552.1 470.0 254.2 297.6 334.5 351.6 201.4 203.8 217.6 118.3 ¥18.3 3.1 14.1 20.2 1998 4 ........... 1999 .............. 2000 .............. 2001 .............. 2002 .............. 2003 .............. 2004 p ............ 738.5 776.8 759.3 719.2 756.8 860.4 ............ 635.5 655.3 613.6 549.5 599.0 683.4 ............ 165.4 194.3 200.2 227.6 276.2 299.8 ............ 470.1 461.1 413.4 322.0 322.8 383.6 ............ 157.0 150.6 144.3 52.6 50.7 67.3 ................ 32.7 33.1 24.4 24.7 11.4 18.8 ................ 53.2 55.5 59.7 52.1 51.0 47.9 .............. 66.4 65.2 59.6 71.0 78.1 77.7 .............. 718.3 775.9 773.4 707.9 758.0 874.5 ............ 248.3 258.6 265.2 204.1 183.8 234.9 ............ 470.0 517.2 508.2 503.8 574.2 639.6 .............. 351.6 337.4 377.9 370.9 390.0 395.3 443.9 118.3 179.9 130.3 132.9 184.1 244.2 .............. 20.2 1.0 ¥14.1 11.3 ¥1.2 ¥14.1 ............ 2001: I ......... II ....... III ...... IV ...... 2002: I ......... II ....... III ...... IV ...... 2003: I ......... II ....... III ...... IV ...... 2004: I ......... II ....... III ...... IV p ..... 750.5 756.0 689.1 681.3 711.7 747.5 761.2 806.8 798.7 823.5 877.2 941.9 925.4 940.6 895.0 ............ 590.4 585.0 542.5 480.2 556.6 596.2 606.1 637.1 641.8 662.2 703.8 726.1 720.0 755.2 706.3 ............ 230.8 224.0 211.8 243.7 274.7 279.9 277.1 272.9 292.5 295.4 306.1 305.3 313.7 306.4 237.6 ............ 359.6 361.0 330.8 236.5 281.9 316.2 329.0 364.2 349.2 366.8 397.6 420.7 406.4 448.8 468.7 ............ 87.8 79.8 49.1 ¥6.3 33.0 46.4 57.5 65.6 54.8 54.1 66.8 93.4 81.5 94.8 105.0 ................ 27.2 29.3 26.1 16.2 8.2 10.8 12.9 13.5 17.1 15.3 18.6 24.3 23.2 21.5 21.1 ................ 46.7 47.8 53.8 60.2 51.3 57.0 46.5 49.3 43.1 45.1 53.1 50.1 46.0 52.2 61.1 .............. 66.7 66.3 72.3 78.6 76.3 79.8 78.7 77.7 74.7 82.6 78.9 74.7 80.0 73.1 64.7 .............. 754.6 755.0 671.1 650.9 695.8 745.9 773.0 817.4 826.1 824.5 881.0 966.2 962.4 988.3 932.8 ............ 222.5 217.9 197.6 178.6 168.9 183.5 188.3 194.7 224.0 224.6 238.7 252.3 256.5 271.2 253.3 ............ 532.1 537.1 473.6 472.4 526.9 562.4 584.8 622.7 602.1 600.0 642.3 713.9 705.9 717.1 679.5 .............. 379.2 370.1 366.0 368.4 378.7 389.2 395.3 396.9 396.0 394.7 394.1 396.4 403.4 413.2 424.0 534.7 152.9 167.0 107.5 104.0 148.2 173.2 189.4 225.7 206.1 205.3 248.1 317.5 302.5 303.9 255.5 .............. ¥4.1 1.1 18.0 30.4 15.9 1.6 ¥11.8 ¥10.6 ¥27.4 ¥1.0 ¥3.8 ¥24.3 ¥37.0 ¥47.8 ¥37.8 ............ 1995 1996 1997 1998 1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. rest of the world, not shown separately. industries not shown separately. 2 Includes 3 Includes 8 4 Data by industry beginning 1998 are based on the 1997 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) and are not directly comparable with data for prior years shown, which are based on the 1987 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC). Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. REAL GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT In the fourth quarter of 2004, according to advance estimates, nonresidential fixed investment in chained (2000) dollars rose $31.0 billion (annual rate) and residential investment rose $0.4 billion. There was an increase of $45.8 billion in inventories following an increase of $34.5 billion in the third quarter. [Billions of chained (2000) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Fixed investment Period Gross private domestic investment Change in private inventories Nonresidential Total Total Equipment and software Residential Structures Total Nonfarm 1995 ................................................................................. 1996 ................................................................................. 1997 ................................................................................. 1998 ................................................................................. 1999 ................................................................................. 2000 ................................................................................. 2001 ................................................................................. 2002 ................................................................................. 2003 ................................................................................. 2004 p ................................................................................ 1,134.0 1,234.3 1,387.7 1,524.1 1,642.6 1,735.5 1,598.4 1,560.7 1,628.8 1,839.1 1,109.6 1,209.2 1,320.6 1,455.0 1,576.3 1,679.0 1,629.4 1,548.9 1,627.3 1,790.4 762.5 833.6 934.2 1,037.8 1,133.3 1,232.1 1,180.5 1,075.6 1,110.8 1,225.6 247.1 261.1 280.1 294.5 293.2 313.2 306.1 251.6 237.4 239.7 523.1 578.7 658.3 745.6 840.2 918.9 874.2 826.5 879.2 996.6 353.1 381.3 388.6 418.3 443.6 446.9 448.5 470.0 511.2 559.6 29.9 28.7 71.2 72.6 68.9 56.5 ¥31.7 11.7 ¥.8 45.3 41.3 21.7 68.5 71.2 71.5 57.8 ¥31.8 13.5 ¥1.1 41.7 2001: I ............................................................................ II ........................................................................... III ......................................................................... IV .......................................................................... 2002: I ............................................................................ II ........................................................................... III ......................................................................... IV .......................................................................... 2003: I ............................................................................ II ........................................................................... III ......................................................................... IV .......................................................................... 1,670.3 1,637.4 1,592.6 1,493.4 1,552.5 1,553.7 1,569.2 1,567.3 1,564.0 1,577.6 1,659.4 1,714.1 1,678.2 1,640.5 1,621.9 1,577.0 1,559.6 1,545.9 1,546.6 1,543.5 1,552.7 1,593.4 1,660.6 1,702.7 1,234.4 1,190.2 1,169.3 1,128.2 1,099.8 1,072.4 1,069.5 1,060.9 1,060.5 1,090.6 1,131.1 1,161.0 313.8 310.6 315.1 284.9 270.7 253.9 243.0 238.9 230.7 238.7 237.9 242.4 920.8 879.2 852.9 843.8 830.1 820.6 829.8 825.5 834.6 856.7 899.7 925.6 444.0 450.1 452.1 447.8 457.8 470.3 473.6 478.5 487.3 497.9 523.8 535.9 ¥7.8 ¥2.5 ¥29.9 ¥86.7 ¥7.4 7.9 22.7 23.8 9.6 ¥17.6 ¥3.5 8.6 ¥13.5 ¥1.1 ¥31.1 ¥81.7 ¥11.9 16.1 24.6 25.3 9.6 ¥15.7 ¥2.7 4.6 2004: I ............................................................................ II ........................................................................... III ......................................................................... IV p ........................................................................ 1,764.5 1,842.9 1,853.9 1,895.1 1,721.4 1,778.3 1,816.1 1,845.7 1,173.0 1,207.9 1,245.3 1,276.3 237.7 241.7 241.0 238.5 943.7 975.5 1,015.6 1,051.5 542.5 563.6 565.9 566.3 40.0 61.1 34.5 45.8 34.5 58.8 30.4 43.3 NOTE.—See p. 10 for further detail on fixed investment by type. Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2000) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9 REAL PRIVATE FIXED INVESTMENT BY TYPE [Billions of chained (2000) dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nonresidential Residential Equipment and software Period Total fixed investment Structures Information processing equipment and software Total nonresidential Structures Total Computers and peripheral equipment 1 Software Total Transportation equipment Other equipment Total residential Total 2 Single family Other Industrial equipment Equipment 1995 ........................... 1996 ........................... 1997 ........................... 1998 ........................... 1999 ........................... 2000 ........................... 2001 ........................... 2002 ........................... 2003 ........................... 2004 p .......................... 2001: I ...................... II ..................... III ................... IV .................... 2002: I ...................... II ..................... III ................... IV .................... 2003: I ...................... II ..................... III ................... IV .................... 1,109.6 1,209.2 1,320.6 1,455.0 1,576.3 1,679.0 1,629.4 1,548.9 1,627.3 1,790.4 1,678.2 1,640.5 1,621.9 1,577.0 1,559.6 1,545.9 1,546.6 1,543.5 1,552.7 1,593.4 1,660.6 1,702.7 762.5 833.6 934.2 1,037.8 1,133.3 1,232.1 1,180.5 1,075.6 1,110.8 1,225.6 1,234.4 1,190.2 1,169.3 1,128.2 1,099.8 1,072.4 1,069.5 1,060.9 1,060.5 1,090.6 1,131.1 1,161.0 247.1 261.1 280.1 294.5 293.2 313.2 306.1 251.6 237.4 239.7 313.8 310.6 315.1 284.9 270.7 253.9 243.0 238.9 230.7 238.7 237.9 242.4 523.1 578.7 658.3 745.6 840.2 918.9 874.2 826.5 879.2 996.6 920.8 879.2 852.9 843.8 830.1 820.6 829.8 825.5 834.6 856.7 899.7 925.6 182.7 218.9 269.9 328.9 398.5 467.6 459.0 439.6 492.4 571.9 485.7 461.4 447.3 441.7 434.1 435.5 446.5 442.2 460.0 475.7 507.1 526.6 ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. 71.6 84.1 108.8 129.4 157.2 176.2 173.8 163.6 171.2 192.4 181.4 174.1 172.3 167.4 163.8 162.9 165.9 161.7 164.9 166.8 174.6 178.5 107.0 117.2 127.3 143.2 158.0 190.0 181.7 164.3 179.4 205.0 193.7 182.9 177.8 172.2 163.7 164.9 165.4 163.2 169.6 173.7 183.9 190.4 134.9 139.9 143.0 148.1 147.9 159.2 145.7 137.4 137.6 144.5 159.3 147.3 140.6 135.4 141.5 136.0 136.6 135.4 137.9 137.3 138.4 136.8 120.6 125.4 135.9 145.4 167.7 160.8 142.8 125.6 121.6 135.3 145.3 144.5 137.6 144.0 134.1 124.3 121.9 121.9 113.9 120.5 124.3 127.8 101.7 105.6 115.8 125.7 126.7 131.2 126.9 124.5 131.2 151.1 130.9 126.3 127.6 122.8 120.4 125.1 125.7 126.7 125.2 126.1 134.0 139.3 353.1 381.3 388.6 418.3 443.6 446.9 448.5 470.0 511.2 559.6 444.0 450.1 452.1 447.8 457.8 470.3 473.6 478.5 487.3 497.9 523.8 535.9 346.8 375.1 382.4 411.9 436.6 439.5 441.1 462.5 503.0 550.4 436.6 442.7 444.8 440.4 450.3 462.7 466.0 470.9 479.5 489.8 515.3 527.2 180.6 197.3 196.6 218.1 234.2 236.8 237.1 246.3 274.2 304.6 234.6 239.1 240.3 234.5 237.7 246.0 249.5 252.0 260.3 264.1 278.3 294.1 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.4 7.0 7.4 7.4 7.6 8.3 9.2 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.6 7.7 8.1 8.5 8.7 2004: I ...................... II ..................... III ................... IV p .................. 1,721.4 1,778.3 1,816.1 1,845.7 1,173.0 1,207.9 1,245.3 1,276.3 237.7 241.7 241.0 238.5 943.7 975.5 1,015.6 1,051.5 547.0 565.4 575.6 599.4 ............. ............. ............. ............. 185.6 189.5 192.7 201.6 200.2 206.2 206.8 206.9 139.0 139.7 148.5 150.6 122.7 130.0 141.0 147.5 142.1 147.5 155.2 159.6 542.5 563.6 565.9 566.3 533.6 554.6 556.7 556.9 299.3 305.7 307.9 305.7 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.4 1 For details on this component, see Survey of Current Business, Tables 5.3.6, 5.3.1 for growth rates, 5.3.2 for contributions, and 5.3.3 for quantity indexes. 2 Includes other items, not shown separately. NOTE.—Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained (2000) dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chained-dollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. BUSINESS INVESTMENT [Billions of dollars] Capital expenditures By industry Period Total capital expenditures Total by industry Forestry, fishing Con- Manuand Min- Utili- strucfacagriing ties turtion culing tural services ProFor Real fesscomTransesional, Health panies portaFiscien- care withWhole- Retail tion Infor- nance tate and tific, and Other out sale and maand rental and 1 trade social emtrade waretion insur- and assisployhousance leas- technical tance ees ing ing services For companies with employees 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 .............................. ............................. .............................. ............................. ............................. ............................. ............................. 807.1 .............. ........... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ .......... ............ .......... .......... .......... .......... ........... .......... .......... 871.8 .............. ........... ........ ......... .......... ........... ............ .......... ............ .......... .......... .......... .......... ........... .......... .......... 970.9 896.5 0.9 40.4 36.0 26.9 203.6 29.2 57.3 51.3 96.5 118.2 85.2 22.3 47.1 81.7 74.4 1,047.0 974.6 1.7 30.6 42.8 23.1 196.4 32.4 64.1 57.3 122.8 130.1 100.6 29.5 51.3 91.8 72.3 1,161.0 1,089.9 1.5 42.5 61.3 25.0 214.8 33.6 69.8 59.9 160.2 133.7 92.5 34.1 52.2 108.9 71.2 1,109.0 1,052.3 1.5 51.3 82.8 24.8 192.8 30.0 66.9 57.8 144.8 131.1 82.7 30.5 52.9 102.5 56.7 1,008.5 928.0 1.9 42.3 67.1 25.4 163.3 27.9 59.4 47.8 88.9 125.7 96.7 26.6 59.1 96.0 80.4 1 Includes the following industries: Management of companies and enterprises; administrative and support and waste management; educational services; arts, entertainment, and recreation; accommodation and food services; and other services (except public administration). Also includes an item for structure and equipment expenditures serving multiple industry categories. 10 NOTE.—Data from Annual Capital Expenditures. Industry data are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS): 1997. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE In January, employment was 140.2 million and unemployment was 7.7 million. (Series revised.) [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Civilian employment Period 1995 ...................... 1996 ...................... 1997 2 .................... 1998 2 .................... 1999 2 .................... 2000 2 .................... 2001 ..................... 2002 ...................... 2003 2 .................... 2004 2 .................... 2004: Jan 2 r ......... Feb r ........... Mar r .......... Apr r ........... May r .......... June r ......... July r .......... Aug r .......... Sept r .......... Oct r ........... Nov r .......... Dec ............ 2005: Jan 2 .......... Civilian noninstitutional population (NSA) Civilian labor force 198,584 200,591 203,133 205,220 207,753 212,577 215,092 217,570 221,168 223,357 222,161 222,357 222,550 222,757 222,967 223,196 223,422 223,677 223,941 224,192 224,422 224,640 224,837 132,304 133,943 136,297 137,673 139,368 142,583 143,734 144,863 146,510 147,401 146,785 146,529 146,737 146,788 147,018 147,386 147,823 147,676 147,531 147,893 148,313 148,203 147,979 Percent 1 Unemployment Total Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over Both sexes 16–19 years 124,900 126,708 129,558 131,463 133,488 136,891 136,933 136,485 137,736 139,252 138,481 138,334 138,408 138,645 138,846 139,158 139,639 139,658 139,527 139,827 140,293 140,156 140,241 64,085 64,897 66,284 67,135 67,761 69,634 69,776 69,734 70,415 71,572 71,283 71,014 71,158 71,158 71,226 71,575 71,830 71,847 71,701 71,895 72,134 72,020 72,029 54,396 55,311 56,613 57,278 58,555 60,067 60,417 60,420 61,402 61,773 61,237 61,456 61,424 61,591 61,723 61,731 61,902 61,877 61,939 62,024 62,145 62,208 62,295 6,419 6,500 6,661 7,051 7,172 7,189 6,740 6,332 5,919 5,907 5,962 5,864 5,825 5,897 5,896 5,853 5,907 5,934 5,887 5,908 6,014 5,927 5,917 1 Civilian labor force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population; and unemployment as percent of civilian labor force. 2 Not strictly comparable with earlier data. NOTE.—Beginning January 2005 data reflect revised population controls and are not strictly comparable with earlier data. Total 7,404 7,236 6,739 6,210 5,880 5,692 6,801 8,378 8,774 8,149 8,303 8,195 8,330 8,143 8,172 8,228 8,184 8,018 8,005 8,066 8,020 8,047 7,737 Men 20 years and over 3,239 3,146 2,882 2,580 2,433 2,376 3,040 3,896 4,209 3,791 3,856 3,840 3,877 3,751 3,869 3,786 3,737 3,768 3,761 3,736 3,733 3,733 3,565 Women 20 years and over Both sexes 16–19 years 2,819 2,783 2,585 2,424 2,285 2,235 2,599 3,228 3,314 3,150 3,238 3,179 3,299 3,185 3,080 3,259 3,183 3,032 3,069 3,102 3,099 3,051 3,023 1,346 1,306 1,271 1,205 1,162 1,081 1,162 1,253 1,251 1,208 1,209 1,175 1,154 1,207 1,223 1,184 1,265 1,217 1,175 1,227 1,188 1,262 1,150 Not in labor force 66,280 66,647 66,837 67,547 68,385 69,994 71,359 72,707 74,658 75,956 75,377 75,828 75,812 75,969 75,950 75,809 75,599 76,001 76,410 76,299 76,109 76,437 76,858 Labor force participation rate Employment/ population ratio Unemployment rate 66.6 66.8 67.1 67.1 67.1 67.1 66.8 66.6 66.2 66.0 66.1 65.9 65.9 65.9 65.9 66.0 66.2 66.0 65.9 66.0 66.1 66.0 65.8 62.9 63.2 63.8 64.1 64.3 64.4 63.7 62.7 62.3 62.3 62.3 62.2 62.2 62.2 62.3 62.3 62.5 62.4 62.3 62.4 62.5 62.4 62.4 5.6 5.4 4.9 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.7 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.2 See Employment and Earnings for details on breaks in series. Data reflect annual revisions released on January 7, 2005; seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 2000. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In January, the unemployment rate fell to 5.2 percent from 5.4 percent in December. (Series revised.) [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) By race or ethnicity 1 By sex and age Period 1995 ......................... 1996 ......................... 1997 ......................... 1998 ......................... 1999 ......................... 2000 ........................ 2001 ........................ 2002 ........................ 2003 ........................ 2004 ......................... 2004: Janr .............. Feb r .............. Mar r ............. Apr r .............. May r ............. June r ............ July r ............. Aug r ............. Sept r ............ Oct r .............. Nov r ............. Dec ............... 2005: Jan ............... All civilian workers 5.6 5.4 4.9 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.7 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.2 Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over 4.8 4.6 4.2 3.7 3.5 3.3 4.2 5.3 5.6 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.2 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.6 4.1 5.1 5.1 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.1 4.9 4.8 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 Both sexes 16–19 years 17.3 16.7 16.0 14.6 13.9 13.1 14.7 16.5 17.5 17.0 16.9 16.7 16.5 17.0 17.2 16.8 17.6 17.0 16.6 17.2 16.5 17.6 16.3 White 4.9 4.7 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.5 4.2 5.1 5.2 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.4 1 Beginning in 2003, persons who selected this race group only. Prior to 2003, persons who reported more than one race were included in the group they identified as the main race. Persons whose ethnicity is identified as Hispanic or Latino may be of any race. 12 By selected groups Black or African American Asian (NSA) Hispanic or Latino ethnicity 10.4 10.5 10.0 8.9 8.0 7.6 8.6 10.2 10.8 10.4 10.4 9.7 10.2 9.8 10.0 10.3 11.0 10.5 10.4 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.6 .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... 3.6 4.5 5.9 6.0 4.4 5.2 4.7 4.2 4.4 4.2 5.0 4.3 3.6 4.3 4.8 4.2 4.1 4.2 9.3 8.9 7.7 7.2 6.4 5.7 6.6 7.5 7.7 7.0 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.0 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.1 Married men, spouse present Women who maintain families (NSA) Full-time workers Part-time workers 8.0 8.2 8.1 7.2 6.4 5.9 6.6 8.0 8.5 8.0 8.3 8.1 8.4 7.5 7.4 8.2 9.0 8.3 8.2 7.8 7.7 7.1 8.2 5.5 5.3 4.8 4.3 4.1 3.8 4.7 5.9 6.1 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.2 6.0 5.8 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.0 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.7 3.6 3.8 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 NOTE.—Data relate to persons age 16 years and over. See Note, p. 11. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In January, the percentages of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 15– 26 weeks fell; the percentages for 5–14 weeks and for 27 weeks and over rose. The mean duration of unemployment was unchanged at 19.3 weeks and the median duration fell to 9.4 weeks. (Series revised.) [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment (thousands) Percent distribution Less than 5 weeks 5–14 weeks 15–26 weeks Reason for unemployment: percent distribution State programs Number of weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Median Job losers 1 Job leavers Reentrants New entrants Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) 2 Weekly average, thousands 1995 ........................................ 1996 ........................................ 1997 ........................................ 1998 ........................................ 1999 ........................................ 2000 ........................................ 2001 ........................................ 2002 ........................................ 2003 ........................................ 2004 ........................................ 2004: Jan r ............................. Feb r ............................. Mar r ............................ Apr r ............................. May r ............................ June r ........................... July r ............................ Aug r ............................ Sept r ............................ Oct r ............................. Nov r ............................ Dec ............................... 2005: Jan .............................. 7,404 7,236 6,739 6,210 5,880 5,692 6,801 8,378 8,774 8,149 8,303 8,195 8,330 8,143 8,172 8,228 8,184 8,018 8,005 8,066 8,020 8,047 7,737 36.5 36.4 37.7 42.2 43.7 44.9 42.0 34.5 31.7 33.1 31.4 30.2 31.4 34.2 33.4 33.3 34.4 32.4 34.9 34.1 32.7 35.4 33.5 31.6 31.6 31.7 31.4 31.2 31.9 32.3 30.8 29.8 29.2 28.7 29.8 28.9 29.3 29.1 29.4 30.2 31.3 28.1 28.4 29.6 28.0 30.2 14.6 14.6 14.8 12.3 12.8 11.8 14.0 16.3 16.4 15.9 17.3 17.0 15.9 14.4 15.6 15.9 14.7 15.4 15.3 15.6 16.2 16.4 15.5 17.3 17.4 15.8 14.1 12.3 11.4 11.8 18.3 22.1 21.8 22.6 23.0 23.8 22.1 21.8 21.5 20.7 20.9 21.7 21.9 21.5 20.2 20.9 1 Beginning January 1994, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs. 2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), and Federal (UCFE). Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Railroad (RR) program, Federal supplemental compensation or Emergency Unemployment Compensation programs. NOTE.—Data relate to persons age 16 years and over (except for insured unemployment and initial claims). 16.6 16.7 15.8 14.5 13.4 12.6 13.1 16.6 19.2 19.6 19.8 20.2 19.9 19.7 19.8 19.8 18.5 19.2 19.6 19.7 19.8 19.3 19.3 8.3 8.3 8.0 6.7 6.4 5.9 6.8 9.1 10.1 9.8 10.6 10.2 10.2 9.4 9.9 10.8 8.9 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.8 9.5 9.4 46.9 46.6 45.1 45.5 44.6 44.2 51.1 55.0 55.1 51.5 52.3 52.2 53.5 53.2 51.1 50.9 51.9 49.7 50.4 50.5 50.5 50.9 51.8 11.1 10.7 11.8 11.8 13.3 13.7 12.3 10.3 9.3 10.5 9.6 10.2 10.1 10.3 10.4 11.2 11.0 11.1 10.4 10.3 10.9 11.1 10.5 34.1 34.7 34.7 34.3 34.1 34.5 29.9 28.3 28.2 29.5 30.0 29.5 28.9 28.5 29.7 30.0 28.6 30.5 30.4 29.9 29.6 29.2 29.7 7.8 8.0 8.4 8.4 8.0 7.6 6.8 6.4 7.3 8.4 8.1 8.2 7.5 8.0 8.8 7.9 8.4 8.7 8.8 9.3 9.0 8.8 8.0 2,572 2,595 2,323 2,222 2,188 2,110 2,974 3,585 r 3,531 2,950 3,172 3,139 3,028 2,970 2,928 2,921 2,888 2,884 2,856 2,803 2,755 2,750 .............. 357 356 323 321 298 301 404 407 r 404 345 356 356 339 342 342 341 340 340 345 342 339 335 p 332 2,633 2,650 2,366 2,257 2,219 2,141 3,007 3,619 r 3,569 2,995 3,703 3,976 3,571 2,971 2,844 2,869 2,724 2,914 2,401 2,426 2,621 2,693 ................. Seasonally adjusted total unemployment and unemployment by duration and reason reflect annual revisions beginning 2000. See Note, p. 11. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 146,000 in January. (Series revised.) [Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 monthly data seasonally adjusted] Goods-producing industries Period 1995 ...................... 1996 ...................... 1997 ...................... 1998 ...................... 1999 ...................... 2000 ...................... 2001 ...................... 2002 ...................... 2003 r ..................... 2004 p ..................... 2004: Jan r ........... Feb r ........... Mar r ........... Apr r ........... May r ........... June r .......... July r ........... Aug r ........... Sept r .......... Oct r ............ Nov r ........... Dec p ........... 2005: Jan p ........... Total nonagricultural employment 117,298 119,708 122,776 125,930 128,993 131,785 131,826 130,341 129,999 131,481 130,372 130,466 130,786 131,123 131,373 131,479 131,562 131,750 131,880 132,162 132,294 132,427 132,573 Total 2 23,156 23,410 23,886 24,354 24,465 24,649 23,873 22,557 21,816 21,885 21,703 21,699 21,773 21,825 21,888 21,890 21,902 21,946 21,947 21,982 21,996 22,006 21,975 Construction 5,274 5,536 5,813 6,149 6,545 6,787 6,826 6,716 6,735 6,965 6,845 6,841 6,897 6,913 6,949 6,955 6,965 6,985 6,998 7,043 7,060 7,074 7,065 Manufacturing 17,241 17,237 17,419 17,560 17,322 17,263 16,441 15,259 14,510 14,329 14,283 14,281 14,291 14,323 14,347 14,344 14,341 14,366 14,352 14,344 14,337 14,330 14,305 Service-providing industries Total 94,142 96,299 98,890 101,576 104,528 107,136 107,952 107,784 108,182 109,597 108,669 108,767 109,013 109,298 109,485 109,589 109,660 109,804 109,933 110,180 110,298 110,421 110,598 Trade, transportation, and utilities Total 3 Retail trade 23,834 24,239 24,700 25,186 25,771 26,225 25,983 25,497 25,287 25,511 25,348 25,367 25,441 25,481 25,511 25,536 25,536 25,537 25,555 25,581 25,621 25,628 25,682 13,897 14,143 14,389 14,609 14,970 15,280 15,239 15,025 14,917 15,034 14,962 14,977 15,021 15,038 15,052 15,061 15,048 15,043 15,038 15,057 15,081 15,073 15,093 1 Data from the establishment survey. Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who received pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, unpaid family workers, and private household workers. Data from the household survey shown on p. 11 include those workers and also count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off. In the series shown here, persons who work at more than one job are counted each time they appear on a payroll, in contrast to the series shown on p. 11 where persons are counted only once—as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force. See Employment and Earnings for details. 14 Information 2,843 2,940 3,084 3,218 3,419 3,631 3,629 3,395 3,188 3,138 3,139 3,143 3,136 3,142 3,146 3,151 3,144 3,135 3,127 3,131 3,133 3,135 3,139 Financial activities 6,827 6,969 7,178 7,462 7,648 7,687 7,807 7,847 7,977 8,052 7,989 7,997 8,005 8,021 8,037 8,051 8,043 8,058 8,083 8,093 8,107 8,127 8,148 Profes- Educasional tion Leisure and and and busihealth hospiness services tality services 12,844 13,462 14,335 15,147 15,957 16,666 16,476 15,976 15,987 16,413 16,138 16,153 16,184 16,305 16,384 16,415 16,453 16,470 16,514 16,614 16,611 16,650 16,675 13,289 13,683 14,087 14,446 14,798 15,109 15,645 16,199 16,588 16,955 16,766 16,787 16,833 16,871 16,913 16,936 16,963 17,010 17,019 17,081 17,108 17,155 17,190 10,501 10,777 11,018 11,232 11,543 11,862 12,036 11,986 12,173 12,479 12,351 12,367 12,412 12,443 12,474 12,486 12,497 12,508 12,522 12,546 12,571 12,580 12,600 Other services Government Total 4,572 4,690 4,825 4,976 5,087 5,168 5,258 5,372 5,401 5,431 5,405 5,402 5,420 5,428 5,434 5,443 5,438 5,441 5,436 5,434 5,441 5,447 5,453 19,432 19,539 19,664 19,909 20,307 20,790 21,118 21,513 21,583 21,619 21,533 21,551 21,582 21,607 21,586 21,571 21,586 21,645 21,677 21,700 21,706 21,699 21,711 Federal 2,949 2,877 2,806 2,772 2,769 2,865 2,764 2,766 2,761 2,728 2,729 2,731 2,730 2,745 2,729 2,731 2,726 2,730 2,730 2,723 2,728 2,713 2,724 2 Includes natural resources and mining, not shown separately. 3 Includes wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, and utilities, not shown separately. NOTE.—Data classified by industry based on the 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). For details see Employment and Earnings,June 2003. Data reflect annual revisions released on February 4, 2005; unadjusted data revised beginning April 2003, seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 2000. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Average weekly hours Average gross hourly earnings Manufacturing Period 1995 ..................... 1996 .................... 1997 .................... 1998 ..................... 1999 ..................... 2000 .................... 2001 ..................... 2002 ..................... 2003 r .................... 2004 p .................... 2004: Jan r .......... Feb r .......... Mar r .......... Apr r .......... May r ......... June r ........ July r ......... Aug r .......... Sept r ......... Oct r ........... Nov r .......... Dec p .......... 2005: Jan p .......... Total private nonagricultural 1 34.3 34.3 34.5 34.5 34.3 34.3 34.0 33.9 33.7 33.7 33.8 33.8 33.7 33.7 33.8 33.6 33.7 33.7 33.8 33.8 33.7 33.8 33.7 Total 41.3 41.3 41.7 41.4 41.4 41.3 40.3 40.5 40.4 40.8 41.0 41.0 40.9 40.8 41.0 40.7 40.8 40.9 40.8 40.7 40.5 40.6 40.7 Average gross weekly earnings Total private nonagricultural 1 Overtime 4.7 4.8 5.1 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 Current dollars $11.64 12.03 12.49 13.00 13.47 14.00 14.53 14.95 15.35 15.67 15.48 15.51 15.54 15.58 15.62 15.64 15.70 15.74 15.77 15.81 15.82 15.85 15.88 1982 dollars 2 $7.53 7.57 7.68 7.89 8.00 8.03 8.11 8.24 8.27 8.23 8.27 8.26 8.24 8.24 8.21 8.19 8.23 8.25 8.25 8.21 8.21 8.23 .............. Total private nonagricultural 1 Manufacturing $12.34 12.75 13.14 13.45 13.85 14.32 14.76 15.29 15.74 16.14 15.94 15.98 16.01 16.07 16.08 16.12 16.16 16.22 16.29 16.27 16.29 16.34 16.35 1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. 2 Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI–W) (on a 1982=100 base). Percent change from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural Current dollars Current dollars 1982 dollars 2 Manufacturing Construction Retail trade $399.53 412.74 431.25 448.04 462.49 480.41 493.20 506.07 517.30 528.56 523.22 524.24 523.70 525.05 527.96 525.50 529.09 530.44 533.03 534.38 533.13 535.73 535.16 $258.43 259.58 265.22 271.87 274.64 275.62 275.38 278.83 278.72 277.61 279.50 279.30 277.53 277.80 277.44 275.28 277.30 277.86 278.78 277.60 276.52 278.16 .............. $509.26 526.55 548.22 557.12 573.17 590.65 595.19 618.75 635.99 658.49 653.54 655.18 654.81 655.66 659.28 656.08 659.33 663.40 664.63 662.19 659.75 663.40 665.45 $571.57 588.48 609.48 629.75 655.11 685.78 695.89 711.82 726.83 735.70 732.29 734.21 739.19 733.44 734.98 729.22 735.74 733.43 738.04 738.79 739.57 739.97 722.30 $272.56 282.76 295.97 310.34 321.63 333.38 346.16 360.81 367.15 371.21 368.95 369.87 368.98 369.91 370.83 366.93 370.26 372.39 374.53 374.53 373.32 376.68 377.92 Current dollars 2.3 3.3 4.5 3.9 3.2 3.9 2.7 2.6 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.5 2.5 2.6 2.0 2.3 2.5 3.0 2.9 2.1 3.2 2.3 1982 dollars ¥0.6 .4 2.2 2.5 1.0 .4 ¥.1 1.3 ¥.0 ¥.4 .1 .4 .0 .4 ¥.3 ¥1.1 ¥.6 ¥.0 .6 ¥.4 ¥1.6 ¥.2 .............. Note.—See Note, p. 14. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY Index (June 1989 = 100) Percent change from 3 months earlier Period Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits 1 Total compensation Wages and salaries 12 months earlier Benefits 1 Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits 1 Not seasonally adjusted 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: 2003: 2004: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec ................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. .................................................................. 126.7 130.6 135.1 139.8 144.6 150.9 157.2 162.3 168.8 175.2 123.1 127.3 132.3 137.4 142.2 147.7 153.3 157.5 162.3 166.2 2001: Mar ................................................................. June ............................................................... Sept ................................................................ Dec ................................................................. 2002: Mar ................................................................. June ............................................................... Sept ................................................................ Dec ................................................................. 2003: Mar ................................................................. June ............................................................... Sept ................................................................ Dec ................................................................. 2004: Mar ................................................................. June ............................................................... Sept ................................................................ Dec ................................................................. 152.7 154.2 155.7 157.4 158.8 160.5 161.5 162.8 165.0 166.4 168.2 169.5 171.3 173.0 174.5 175.8 149.4 150.8 152.0 153.5 154.8 156.2 156.9 157.7 159.3 160.3 161.7 162.5 163.5 164.4 165.8 166.4 135.9 138.6 141.8 145.2 150.2 158.6 166.7 174.6 185.8 198.7 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. 1.0 .9 .8 1.0 .8 .9 .4 .5 1.0 .6 .9 .5 .6 .6 .9 .4 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.4 .8 1.4 1.1 1.4 2.1 1.4 1.5 1.4 2.6 1.7 1.0 1.5 Seasonally adjusted 1 Employer costs for employee benefits. NOTE.—The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries. 160.7 162.5 164.7 167.0 168.4 170.8 172.6 175.0 178.6 181.1 183.8 186.3 191.2 194.5 196.4 199.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 .9 1.1 .6 .8 1.4 .8 1.1 .8 1.1 1.0 .9 .7 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.4 4.4 4.2 3.2 4.0 3.8 2.8 3.4 3.9 3.9 3.5 3.9 3.8 2.7 3.0 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.4 3.4 5.6 5.1 4.7 6.4 6.9 Not seasonally adjusted 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.2 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.2 3.8 3.5 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.6 3.2 2.7 3.0 2.6 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.4 5.0 4.8 4.9 5.1 4.8 5.1 4.8 4.7 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.4 7.0 7.3 6.8 6.9 Data exclude farm and household workers. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output per hour of all persons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Output 1 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Hours of all persons 2 Business sector Compensation per hour 3 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real compensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit labor costs Implicit price deflator 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 104.3 104.8 106.1 109.6 111.6 116.1 118.0 116.6 116.2 116.5 118.7 117.9 118.2 117.0 116.7 117.2 116.3 116.3 116.8 116.4 115.6 116.0 115.7 116.4 116.8 117.3 103.8 104.5 106.0 109.4 111.4 116.0 117.7 116.5 116.1 116.2 118.6 117.6 117.8 116.8 116.4 117.1 116.2 116.1 116.6 116.3 115.5 115.9 115.4 115.9 116.4 117.1 105.7 107.4 109.0 109.7 110.7 112.7 114.9 116.0 117.4 119.4 114.1 114.9 115.2 115.6 115.5 115.9 116.1 116.5 117.1 117.3 117.5 117.8 118.4 119.4 119.7 120.3 105.8 107.3 109.1 109.9 111.1 113.3 115.4 116.6 117.9 119.8 114.6 115.4 115.6 116.0 116.0 116.5 116.8 117.2 117.7 117.8 118.0 118.1 118.7 119.6 120.1 120.7 1.6 .7 1.4 3.2 1.8 4.2 1.5 ¥1.1 ¥.4 .1 7.2 ¥3.1 .6 ¥3.3 ¥1.4 2.3 ¥2.9 ¥.3 1.6 ¥1.0 ¥2.7 1.2 ¥1.6 1.9 1.6 2.3 1.8 1.6 1.5 .6 .9 1.8 2.0 .9 1.3 1.7 2.7 3.0 1.0 1.3 ¥.3 1.4 .7 1.4 2.1 .8 .7 .8 2.1 3.3 1.1 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.7 .7 1.1 1.9 1.9 1.0 1.1 1.6 2.6 2.7 .7 1.5 ¥.3 1.8 1.0 1.3 1.9 .5 .6 .3 2.0 2.9 1.8 2.0 Indexes, 1992=100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 1995 ........................ 1996 ........................ 1997 ........................ 1998 ........................ 1999 ........................ 2000 ........................ 2001 ........................ 2002 ........................ 2003 ........................ 2004 p* .................... 2001: I ................... II ................. III ................ IV ................ 2002: I ................... II ................. III ................ IV ................ 2003: I ................... II ................. III ............... IV ................ 2004: I ................... II ................. III r ............... IV p* ............. 101.6 104.6 106.5 109.4 112.6 115.9 118.8 123.9 129.5 134.7 117.0 118.4 118.8 120.9 122.7 123.2 124.7 125.0 126.2 128.6 131.2 132.0 133.3 134.2 135.0 135.8 102.0 104.8 106.5 109.3 112.3 115.5 118.3 123.5 129.0 134.2 116.5 118.1 118.5 120.4 122.4 122.8 124.1 124.6 125.8 127.8 130.6 131.7 132.8 134.1 134.7 135.0 111.4 116.5 122.7 128.6 135.2 140.5 141.0 143.5 149.0 156.6 141.1 141.4 140.3 141.0 142.2 142.9 144.3 144.7 145.5 147.5 150.8 152.3 154.3 155.8 157.5 158.8 111.8 116.8 122.8 128.9 135.6 140.8 141.3 143.9 149.4 157.2 141.4 141.9 140.8 141.2 142.6 143.2 144.5 145.0 145.9 147.8 151.1 152.8 155.0 156.5 158.2 159.3 109.6 111.4 115.1 117.6 120.1 121.3 118.7 115.8 115.1 116.3 120.7 119.4 118.1 116.6 115.9 116.0 115.7 115.7 115.3 114.7 114.9 115.4 115.8 116.1 116.6 116.9 109.5 111.5 115.4 117.9 120.7 121.9 119.4 116.5 115.8 117.1 121.4 120.2 118.9 117.3 116.5 116.7 116.4 116.4 116.0 115.6 115.7 116.1 116.7 116.7 117.4 118.0 106.0 109.6 113.1 119.9 125.6 134.5 140.1 144.5 150.5 156.9 138.8 139.7 140.4 141.5 143.2 144.4 145.0 145.5 147.4 149.6 151.7 153.2 154.2 156.2 157.7 159.3 105.9 109.5 112.9 119.6 125.1 134.0 139.3 143.8 149.7 156.0 138.1 138.9 139.6 140.7 142.6 143.8 144.3 144.7 146.6 148.7 150.9 152.5 153.3 155.5 156.8 158.0 98.9 99.6 100.6 105.1 107.9 111.8 113.3 115.0 117.1 118.9 113.0 112.8 113.2 114.2 115.2 115.2 115.0 114.8 115.3 116.8 117.7 118.7 118.4 118.6 119.1 119.3 98.8 99.5 100.4 104.9 107.5 111.4 112.7 114.5 116.5 118.2 112.5 112.2 112.5 113.5 114.7 114.7 114.4 114.3 114.7 116.1 117.1 118.2 117.7 118.0 118.5 118.4 Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 1995 ........................ 1996 ........................ 1997 ........................ 1998 ........................ 1999 ........................ 2000 ........................ 2001 ........................ 2002 ........................ 2003 ........................ 2004 p* .................... 2001: I ................... II ................. III ................ IV ................ 2002: I ................... II ................. III ................ IV ................ 2003: I ................... II ................. III ............... IV ................ 2004: I ................... II ................. III r ............... IV p* ............. 1 Output 0.2 2.9 1.9 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.5 4.3 4.5 4.0 ¥.5 5.1 1.4 7.2 5.9 1.7 4.8 1.2 3.9 7.6 8.5 2.4 3.9 2.9 2.4 2.5 0.5 2.7 1.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.5 4.4 4.4 4.1 ¥.4 5.5 1.5 6.6 6.9 1.1 4.5 1.6 3.7 6.7 9.0 3.1 3.7 3.9 1.8 .8 2.9 4.6 5.3 4.8 5.1 3.9 .3 1.8 3.8 5.1 ¥1.1 .8 ¥3.1 1.8 3.5 2.1 3.8 1.2 2.2 5.6 9.3 4.2 5.3 3.9 4.5 3.3 3.2 4.5 5.2 5.0 5.2 3.8 .4 1.8 3.8 5.3 ¥1.1 1.2 ¥2.9 1.2 4.0 1.7 3.6 1.4 2.4 5.3 9.3 4.6 5.7 4.2 4.2 2.8 2.7 1.6 3.4 2.1 2.2 1.0 ¥2.1 ¥2.4 ¥.7 1.0 ¥.6 ¥4.1 ¥4.4 ¥5.0 ¥2.3 .4 ¥1.0 .0 ¥1.6 ¥1.9 .7 1.7 1.3 1.0 2.0 .8 2.7 1.8 3.5 2.2 2.3 1.0 ¥2.0 ¥2.5 ¥.6 1.1 ¥.7 ¥4.1 ¥4.3 ¥5.1 ¥2.7 .6 ¥.9 ¥.2 ¥1.3 ¥1.4 .3 1.4 2.0 .3 2.4 1.9 refers to real gross domestic product originating in the sector. 2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers’ contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed. 4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI– U) for recent quarters. The trend from 1978–2003 is based on the consumer price index research series (CPI–U–RS). 5 Current dollar gross domestic output divided by the output index. 16 2.0 3.4 3.2 6.0 4.8 7.1 4.2 3.2 4.1 4.3 6.8 2.5 2.2 3.1 4.9 3.4 1.6 1.3 5.5 6.1 5.6 4.0 2.8 5.2 3.8 4.2 2.1 3.4 3.1 5.9 4.6 7.1 4.0 3.3 4.1 4.2 6.7 2.2 2.1 3.1 5.5 3.4 1.5 1.2 5.3 5.7 6.1 4.4 2.0 5.9 3.5 3.1 ¥0.4 .7 1.0 4.6 2.6 3.6 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.6 3.1 ¥.8 1.2 3.7 3.5 ¥.1 ¥.7 ¥.6 1.7 5.4 3.1 3.3 ¥.8 .5 1.9 .8 ¥0.3 .7 .9 4.5 2.5 3.6 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.5 3.0 ¥1.0 1.1 3.7 4.1 ¥.1 ¥.8 ¥.6 1.5 5.0 3.6 3.6 ¥1.6 1.1 1.6 ¥.3 1.9 .5 1.3 3.3 1.8 4.0 1.6 ¥1.1 ¥.4 .3 7.4 ¥2.5 .8 ¥3.8 ¥1.0 1.7 ¥3.1 .0 1.6 ¥1.4 ¥2.6 1.6 ¥1.1 2.3 1.3 1.7 NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. * Data based on GDP data released on January 28, 2005. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production and capacity utilization rose in December. [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Total industrial production 1 Percent Period Index, 1997=100 From preceding month Industry production indexes, 1997=100 change 2 From year earlier Capacity utilization rate (output as percent of capacity) 1 Manufacturing Total 1 Durable Nondurable Other (nonNAICS) 1 1995 ...................... 1996 ...................... 1997 ...................... 1998 ...................... 1999 ...................... 2000 ...................... 2001 ...................... 2002 ...................... 2003 ...................... 2004 p .................... 89.4 93.2 100.0 105.8 110.6 115.4 111.3 111.0 110.9 115.5 .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 4.8 4.3 7.3 5.8 4.5 4.3 ¥3.6 ¥.3 .0 4.1 88.1 92.2 100.0 106.6 112.2 117.3 112.3 111.9 111.9 117.2 82.1 89.1 100.0 110.5 120.1 129.4 123.1 122.8 124.4 133.1 96.2 96.4 100.0 101.5 102.2 102.8 99.4 99.6 98.1 100.1 93.0 92.3 100.0 106.5 109.9 112.2 105.7 100.5 99.5 103.3 2003: Dec ............ 112.9 0.2 2.0 113.9 128.4 98.3 2004: Jan ............ Feb ............ Mar ............ Apr ............ May ........... June .......... July ........... Aug ............ Sept r .......... Oct r ........... Nov r ........... Dec p .......... 113.2 114.4 114.1 114.7 115.5 115.1 115.9 116.0 115.7 116.6 116.8 117.8 .3 1.1 ¥.3 .5 .7 ¥.4 .7 .1 ¥.3 .8 .2 .8 2.1 3.1 3.2 4.7 5.4 4.7 4.8 5.0 3.9 4.5 3.7 4.4 114.1 115.5 115.6 116.4 117.1 116.9 117.8 118.3 117.7 118.8 118.9 119.7 129.0 130.7 130.8 131.6 132.4 132.3 133.7 134.4 134.1 135.7 135.9 137.1 98.1 98.9 99.1 99.8 100.3 100.2 100.7 100.7 100.2 101.0 100.9 101.2 1 Total industry and total manufacturing series include manufacturing as defined in the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) plus those industries—logging and newspaper, periodical, book and directory-publishing—that have traditionally been included in manufacturing. 2 Percent changes based on unrounded indexes. Mining Utilities Total industry Total manufacturing 96.7 98.3 100.0 98.5 93.6 95.8 96.7 92.6 92.2 91.5 97.2 100.0 100.0 102.6 105.5 108.6 108.1 111.4 111.9 114.9 83.7 82.7 83.7 82.9 82.2 82.0 76.6 75.3 75.5 78.0 82.8 81.4 82.8 81.8 81.1 80.6 74.5 73.5 73.7 76.7 99.8 92.2 114.9 76.8 75.0 99.8 102.9 102.6 103.4 104.5 103.5 104.0 105.9 104.0 103.7 103.8 105.0 92.9 92.1 92.1 92.2 91.6 91.2 92.3 91.9 89.4 89.5 91.4 91.8 115.8 117.7 113.1 113.3 116.2 113.8 113.3 111.1 114.8 114.5 114.4 117.5 76.9 77.7 77.4 77.7 78.2 77.8 78.3 78.3 78.0 78.5 78.6 79.2 75.1 75.9 75.9 76.3 76.7 76.5 77.0 77.2 76.8 77.4 77.4 77.8 NOTE.—Data based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) except series as defined in footnote 1. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1997=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Products and nonindustrial supplies Final products Consumer goods Equipment Durable goods Business equipment Period Total Total Nondurable goods Materials Nonindustrial supplies Total 1 Defense and space equipment Total Construction supplies Business supplies Total 1 Energy 1995 ............................................................ 1996 ............................................................ 1997 ............................................................ 1998 ............................................................ 1999 ............................................................ 2000 ............................................................ 2001 ............................................................ 2002 ............................................................ 2003 ............................................................ 2004 p .......................................................... 90.6 94.0 100.0 105.6 108.4 111.7 109.1 107.7 108.6 113.3 94.6 96.6 100.0 103.5 105.5 107.7 106.5 108.0 108.3 112.2 90.0 93.7 100.0 106.9 114.1 117.8 112.7 118.8 121.4 124.9 96.5 97.7 100.0 102.2 102.2 103.8 103.9 103.9 103.3 106.0 83.2 89.2 100.0 109.6 114.2 119.7 113.9 105.6 107.9 117.2 79.9 87.3 100.0 110.9 117.4 125.8 116.8 107.6 108.9 119.2 105.8 101.8 100.0 103.7 100.7 90.1 98.1 99.2 106.4 111.3 90.3 93.8 100.0 105.7 109.9 114.3 109.5 108.6 107.6 112.6 91.4 95.5 100.0 105.2 107.9 110.2 105.1 104.2 101.8 107.1 89.9 93.2 100.0 105.8 110.6 115.8 111.1 110.3 109.9 114.7 88.0 92.3 100.0 106.1 113.1 119.6 114.1 115.2 114.6 118.8 98.6 100.1 100.0 100.5 100.2 101.6 100.4 100.4 99.8 99.6 2003: Dec r ................................................. 110.5 109.7 124.6 104.1 111.1 112.6 107.0 109.4 104.3 111.4 116.6 100.3 2004: Jan .................................................. Feb .................................................. Mar ................................................. Apr .................................................. May ................................................. June ................................................ July ................................................. Aug .................................................. Sept r ................................................ Oct r ................................................. Nov r ................................................ Dec p ................................................ 110.8 112.3 111.7 112.3 113.1 112.4 113.7 113.8 113.5 114.8 114.8 115.7 109.9 111.3 110.4 110.7 111.3 110.2 110.8 111.4 110.7 111.9 111.9 112.7 126.0 126.8 125.5 125.6 124.8 123.1 123.0 125.4 123.5 126.1 125.9 126.6 103.9 105.6 104.8 105.1 106.2 105.3 106.1 106.1 105.8 106.6 106.6 107.5 111.8 113.2 113.5 115.0 116.3 116.6 119.6 118.6 119.2 120.6 120.7 121.9 113.7 115.2 115.3 116.7 118.2 118.7 121.9 120.7 121.1 122.8 122.5 123.6 106.0 107.1 108.2 109.9 111.1 110.7 112.8 112.7 113.5 114.0 115.2 116.6 110.1 111.5 111.3 112.1 112.8 112.6 113.0 113.0 112.8 113.3 113.2 114.2 104.6 104.9 105.8 106.5 107.3 107.0 107.9 108.3 107.6 108.4 108.2 108.6 112.3 114.1 113.5 114.3 114.9 114.7 114.9 114.8 114.9 115.2 115.2 116.4 116.8 117.6 117.6 118.1 118.9 118.8 119.2 119.3 118.9 119.5 120.1 121.2 100.9 100.5 99.3 99.8 100.8 99.6 99.6 98.6 98.2 98.3 99.4 100.7 1 Includes other items, not shown separately. [1997=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Durable manufactures Primary metal Period Total Iron and steel products Nondurable manufactures Computer and electronic products Fabricated metal products Machinery Total Selected hightechnology 1 Transportation equipment Total Motor vehicles and parts Apparel Printing and support Chemical Food 1995 ............................................................ 1996 ............................................................ 1997 ............................................................ 1998 ............................................................ 1999 ............................................................ 2000 ............................................................ 2001 ............................................................ 2002 ............................................................ 2003 ............................................................ 2004 p .......................................................... 93.8 96.0 100.0 101.6 101.4 98.1 88.7 90.3 87.4 92.6 94.8 97.1 100.0 99.8 100.5 99.5 90.0 92.0 93.3 101.5 92.3 95.8 100.0 103.1 104.0 108.1 100.0 97.6 93.5 96.5 91.5 94.8 100.0 102.5 100.3 105.4 93.1 88.3 86.4 96.5 58.1 74.3 100.0 128.5 169.7 224.9 227.3 222.2 251.5 288.2 48.0 67.3 100.0 139.2 202.2 288.4 293.6 289.9 340.8 405.9 90.0 91.7 100.0 108.9 114.7 109.4 105.2 109.3 111.1 115.5 92.0 92.7 100.0 105.2 116.7 115.9 105.7 115.7 119.9 124.4 104.2 101.3 100.0 94.6 90.6 86.2 73.9 62.1 52.4 48.8 97.3 98.0 100.0 101.2 102.0 102.7 96.4 91.1 87.3 87.8 92.5 94.4 100.0 101.7 103.7 105.3 103.4 107.9 107.2 110.2 99.3 97.3 100.0 104.4 105.5 107.3 107.4 109.4 109.6 111.3 2003: Dec .................................................. 92.9 104.4 94.5 90.0 263.5 362.3 114.7 124.5 50.0 87.2 107.5 110.3 2004: Jan .................................................. Feb .................................................. Mar ................................................. Apr .................................................. May ................................................. June ................................................ July ................................................. Aug .................................................. Sept r ................................................ Oct r ................................................. Nov r ................................................ Dec p ................................................ 87.9 90.7 91.5 90.0 90.8 92.1 93.4 93.2 94.2 94.9 94.5 97.3 96.3 99.9 100.6 96.4 97.5 98.9 100.7 100.7 104.9 106.3 104.5 110.3 95.0 95.3 95.1 96.2 96.6 96.9 97.1 97.6 96.9 97.2 97.0 97.1 91.5 94.3 94.1 95.2 96.5 96.4 99.1 96.6 97.3 98.6 98.9 99.7 266.9 272.4 276.0 278.5 285.1 288.7 292.9 295.4 298.0 300.9 303.1 306.7 370.7 381.1 385.9 392.6 401.9 406.8 411.5 415.7 418.4 421.7 429.0 436.3 115.0 116.4 115.4 115.6 114.5 113.0 113.2 115.8 114.7 117.8 117.8 118.8 125.2 127.0 125.3 125.0 123.1 121.0 120.5 124.5 123.1 127.4 126.3 126.9 49.8 50.2 50.5 50.9 50.0 49.3 47.9 47.5 47.7 47.2 47.2 47.9 87.7 87.9 88.2 87.8 87.1 87.9 87.0 86.9 88.8 87.6 87.8 88.0 106.8 107.5 108.6 110.0 110.3 110.3 110.9 111.8 110.5 120.0 111.6 111.5 110.0 110.4 110.8 110.8 112.1 111.3 111.9 111.9 111.5 111.9 112.0 112.3 1 Computers and office equipment, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. 18 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. NEW CONSTRUCTION [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Private Period Total new construction expenditures Residential Total Total 1 Federal and State and local Nonresidential New housing Total Lodging Commercial (including farm) Office Manufacturing Other 2 1995 .................................... 1996 .................................... 1997 .................................... 1998 .................................... 1999 .................................... 2000 .................................... 2001 .................................... 2002 .................................... 2003 .................................... 2004 p .................................. 2003: Dec .......................... 557.8 615.9 653.4 705.7 766.1 828.2 858.3 871.3 915.7 998.4 948.9 427.9 476.6 502.7 551.4 596.3 642.6 652.5 651.7 690.0 764.9 727.0 247.4 281.1 289.0 314.6 350.6 374.5 388.3 421.9 476.1 542.7 511.3 171.4 191.1 198.1 224.0 251.3 265.0 279.4 298.8 345.9 408.8 381.7 180.5 195.5 213.7 236.8 245.8 268.2 264.2 229.8 213.9 222.2 215.7 7.1 10.9 12.9 14.8 16.0 16.3 14.5 10.5 9.9 11.8 9.3 23.0 26.5 32.8 40.4 45.1 52.4 49.7 35.3 30.4 32.2 31.5 44.1 49.4 53.1 55.7 59.4 64.1 63.6 59.2 57.7 61.1 56.7 35.4 38.1 37.6 40.5 32.6 31.8 29.5 16.4 14.2 14.6 13.6 70.9 70.6 77.3 85.4 92.8 103.6 106.8 108.4 101.6 102.6 104.6 129.9 139.3 150.7 154.3 169.7 185.5 205.8 219.6 225.7 233.5 222.0 2004: Jan .......................... Feb .......................... Mar .......................... Apr .......................... May ......................... June ........................ July .......................... Aug .......................... Sept r ........................ Oct r ......................... Nov p ........................ Dec p ......................... 946.5 952.2 973.9 986.4 992.8 996.4 1,005.1 1,007.9 1,013.6 1,017.4 1,020.8 1,031.8 724.0 732.1 738.7 747.5 756.4 758.9 767.1 777.0 782.2 784.3 782.3 789.0 513.9 516.4 522.2 525.9 535.5 538.5 543.3 552.7 557.3 556.2 555.8 559.8 383.5 384.9 391.1 397.8 407.5 409.8 411.7 419.5 418.0 419.3 418.4 420.9 210.1 215.7 216.5 221.6 220.9 220.4 223.8 224.3 224.9 228.0 226.5 229.2 8.7 10.1 11.1 11.4 11.2 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.3 12.9 12.9 29.2 32.0 32.2 33.1 32.4 33.1 32.8 32.3 31.6 32.2 32.0 32.4 56.9 56.8 56.4 58.9 60.0 61.3 63.5 63.6 63.3 63.6 63.2 63.2 13.8 13.8 13.9 13.4 14.3 13.0 14.3 14.4 14.5 15.8 16.0 17.0 101.6 102.9 103.0 104.8 103.1 101.1 100.9 101.2 102.5 103.2 102.5 103.7 222.6 220.1 235.2 238.9 236.3 237.4 238.0 231.0 231.4 233.1 238.4 242.8 1 Includes residential improvements, not shown separately. 2 Includes health care, educational, communication, and power, among other categories not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or houses, except as noted] New private housing units Period Total 1995 ...................................... 1996 ...................................... 1997 ...................................... 1998 ...................................... 1999 ...................................... 2000 ...................................... 2001 ...................................... 2002 ...................................... 2003 ...................................... 2004 p .................................... New private houses Units started, by type of structure 1,354.1 1,476.8 1,474.0 1,616.9 1,640.9 1,568.7 1,602.7 1,704.9 1,847.7 1,953.4 1 unit 1,076.2 1,160.9 1,133.7 1,271.4 1,302.4 1,230.9 1,273.3 1,358.6 1,499.0 1,608.4 2–4 units 1 5 units or more 33.8 45.3 44.5 42.6 31.9 38.7 36.6 38.5 33.5 41.4 244.1 270.8 295.8 302.9 306.6 299.1 292.8 307.9 315.2 303.7 Units authorized 1,332.5 1,425.6 1,441.1 1,612.3 1,663.5 1,592.3 1,636.7 1,747.7 1,889.2 2,018.2 Units completed Houses sold Houses for sale at end of period 2 1,312.6 1,412.9 1,400.5 1,474.2 1,604.9 1,573.7 1,570.8 1,648.4 1,678.7 1,844.3 667 757 804 886 880 877 908 973 1,086 1,183 370 322 281 294 308 298 308 339 370 432 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 3 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.0 8.4 8.9 9.8 10.2 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 2003: Dec ............................ 2,067 1,657 29 381 1,979 1,736 1,120 370 10.2 2004: Jan ............................ Feb ............................ Mar ............................ Apr ............................ May ........................... June .......................... July ............................ Aug ............................ Sept ........................... Oct r ........................... Nov r ........................... Dec p ........................... 1,934 1,895 2,000 1,963 1,979 1,817 1,985 2,018 1,905 2,065 1,807 2,004 1,565 1,521 1,624 1,615 1,654 1,520 1,661 1,685 1,549 1,662 1,483 1,678 30 30 33 36 56 25 64 67 31 41 38 35 339 344 343 312 269 272 260 266 325 362 286 291 1,913 1,913 1,975 2,006 2,097 1,945 2,066 1,969 1,998 2,018 2,028 2,032 1,714 1,729 1,782 1,944 1,928 1,865 1,876 1,914 1,777 1,833 1,730 1,946 1,155 1,165 1,270 1,176 1,244 1,198 1,095 1,158 r 1,211 1,263 1,097 1,098 374 373 379 384 385 383 399 405 r 411 413 421 432 ...................... ...................... 10.4 ...................... ...................... 10.2 ...................... ...................... 10.1 ...................... ...................... 10.0 1 Derived; seasonally adjusted monthly data for 2–4 housing units started are no longer published. 2 Seasonally adjusted. 3 Revised series. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. NOTE.—Units authorized are for 19,000 places. Beginning 1999, housing starts, completions, and sales are not directly comparable with earlier data due to new estimation methods. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade In December, according to preliminary estimates, manufacturing and trade sales rose 1.0 percent. According to current estimates, manufacturing and trade sales rose 0.4 percent in November and inventories rose $13.8 billion. According to advance estimates, retail sales rose 1.3 percent in December. Retail and food services sales rose 1.2 percent. [Millions of dollars, except ratios; seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Manufacturing and trade 1 Period Sales 2 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2003: Inventories 3 Inventorysales ratio 4 Wholesale Sales 2 Inventories 3 Retail Inventory sales ratio 4 Sales 2 Inventories 3 Inventory sales ratio 4 Retail and food services sales 2 ................................................................ ................................................................ ................................................................ ................................................................ ................................................................ ................................................................ ................................................................ ................................................................ ................................................................ ................................................................ Nov r ..................................................... Dec r ..................................................... 655,227 989,067 1.48 687,472 1,008,623 1.46 724,126 1,049,527 1.42 743,702 1,081,988 1.44 787,531 1,142,277 1.41 835,194 1,200,666 1.41 819,061 1,146,151 1.44 822,013 1,163,690 1.40 r 856,998 1,185,268 1.37 948,069 .................. ................ 881,130 1,181,672 1.34 890,783 1,185,268 1.33 176,227 186,649 194,541 198,319 211,631 228,630 225,123 228,524 240,442 273,565 248,767 251,821 234,268 237,186 254,763 267,689 284,396 301,618 287,913 288,990 r 295,226 328,267 292,968 295,226 1.30 1.28 1.27 1.32 1.30 1.29 1.32 1.25 1.21 1.15 1.18 1.17 189,028 329,582 1.72 201,058 340,621 1.67 210,027 350,960 1.64 220,399 365,068 1.62 239,910 394,235 1.59 255,849 417,652 1.59 263,063 406,002 1.58 269,177 430,512 1.56 283,295 451,458 1.56 305,396 ................ ................ 290,909 450,578 1.55 290,477 451,458 1.55 208,496 221,299 231,530 243,119 263,733 281,385 289,667 296,965 313,057 337,983 321,973 321,470 2004: Jan ...................................................... Feb ...................................................... Mar ...................................................... Apr ...................................................... May ...................................................... June ..................................................... July ..................................................... Aug ...................................................... Sept ..................................................... Oct r ...................................................... Nov p ..................................................... Dec p ..................................................... 894,394 1,187,402 1.33 902,285 1,197,124 1.33 931,224 1,205,977 1.30 930,732 1,214,579 1.30 938,211 1,222,744 1.30 940,345 1,236,066 1.31 948,939 1,248,260 1.32 954,299 1,257,121 1.32 957,635 1,257,095 1.31 971,108 1,262,619 1.30 975,397 1,276,421 1.31 985,586 .................. ................ 253,664 259,109 266,509 269,017 269,823 270,235 272,479 275,213 277,498 281,832 284,223 286,843 296,016 299,712 301,311 301,989 306,229 309,744 314,354 317,681 319,510 323,091 327,081 328,267 1.17 1.16 1.13 1.12 1.13 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.14 292,253 451,357 1.54 295,019 454,614 1.54 301,790 460,087 1.52 299,146 465,891 1.56 303,683 466,569 1.54 301,306 472,012 1.57 304,355 475,225 1.56 303,549 477,465 1.57 308,658 475,208 1.54 311,819 473,142 1.52 312,027 478,463 1.53 316,052 ................ ................ 323,918 326,996 333,818 331,131 335,920 333,543 336,944 336,059 341,461 345,033 345,259 349,436 1 See page 21 for manufacturing. data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. 3 Seasonally adjusted, end of period. 2 Annual 20 4 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In December, manufacturers’ shipments and new and unfilled orders rose; inventories fell. Manufacturers’ shipments 1 Manufacturers’ inventories 2 Manufacturers’ new orders 1 Durable goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, nondefense Manufacturers’ unfilled orders 2 Manufacturers’ inventory— shipments ratio 3 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted 1995 .................................................... 1996 .................................................... 1997 .................................................... 1998 .................................................... 1999 .................................................... 2000 .................................................... 2001 .................................................... 2002 .................................................... 2003 .................................................... 2004 p ................................................... 2003: Dec ........................................... 289,973 299,766 319,558 324,984 335,991 350,715 330,875 324,313 333,260 369,108 348,485 158,568 164,883 178,949 185,966 193,895 197,807 181,201 177,617 179,220 197,711 187,978 131,405 134,883 140,610 139,019 142,096 152,908 149,674 146,696 154,041 171,397 160,507 425,217 430,816 443,804 449,231 463,646 481,396 452,236 444,188 438,584 470,553 438,584 267,696 272,787 281,249 290,874 296,645 306,682 283,722 271,789 262,947 282,318 262,947 157,521 158,029 162,555 158,357 167,001 174,714 168,514 172,399 175,637 188,235 175,637 285,542 297,282 314,986 317,345 329,770 346,789 322,944 316,744 329,167 365,731 344,868 154,137 162,399 174,377 178,327 187,674 193,881 173,270 170,048 175,126 194,334 184,361 51,011 54,066 60,697 62,133 64,392 69,278 58,336 53,991 57,445 65,327 60,219 447,338 488,815 513,166 496,471 505,941 550,005 517,590 485,816 506,298 552,557 506,298 1.44 1.43 1.37 1.39 1.35 1.35 1.42 1.37 1.33 1.24 1.26 2004: Jan ........................................... Feb ........................................... Mar .......................................... Apr ........................................... May .......................................... June ......................................... July .......................................... Aug .......................................... Sept .......................................... Oct r .......................................... Nov r ......................................... Dec p ......................................... 348,477 348,157 362,925 362,569 364,705 368,804 372,105 375,537 371,479 377,457 379,147 382,691 186,115 188,798 197,139 195,512 194,389 196,708 197,698 201,398 199,341 200,030 200,500 205,193 162,362 159,359 165,786 167,057 170,316 172,096 174,407 174,139 172,138 177,427 178,647 177,498 440,029 442,798 444,579 446,699 449,946 454,310 458,681 461,975 462,377 466,386 470,877 470,553 263,276 264,550 265,607 267,206 269,308 271,849 274,834 277,119 278,013 280,101 282,599 282,318 176,753 178,248 178,972 179,493 180,638 182,461 183,847 184,856 184,364 186,285 188,278 188,235 341,868 345,778 363,146 359,124 360,561 364,818 370,838 369,574 369,578 372,953 378,047 379,085 179,506 186,419 197,360 192,067 190,245 192,722 196,431 195,435 197,440 195,526 199,400 201,587 58,564 60,967 64,726 63,908 62,996 63,934 69,879 65,015 67,076 64,911 69,919 68,747 506,184 510,535 517,585 521,211 524,365 527,537 533,792 535,310 540,244 542,976 549,184 552,557 1.26 1.27 1.22 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.23 1 Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. Shipments are the same as sales. 2 Seasonally adjusted, end of period. 3 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. NOTE.—Manufacturers’ nondurable new orders (not shown) are the same as nondurable shipments. Also, there are no unfilled nondurable orders; data shown for total unfilled orders are durable unfilled orders. Total and durable shipments and inventories include data on semiconductors; new and unfilled orders do not. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES The producer price index for all finished goods fell 0.7 percent in December. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 0.1 percent, while prices of other finished consumer goods fell 1.3 percent. Capital equipment prices rose 0.1 percent. [1982=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Finished goods Period Total finished goods Finished goods excluding consumer foods Consumer foods Consumer goods Total Total 1995 ........................... 1996 ........................... 1997 ........................... 1998 ........................... 1999 .......................... 2000 ........................... 2001 ........................... 2002 .......................... 2003 .......................... 2004 p ........................ 2003: Dec ................ 2004: Jan ................ Feb ................ Mar ................ Apr ................ May ............... June .............. July ............... Aug r ............... Sept ................ Oct ................. Nov ................. Dec ................. 1 Intermediate 22 127.9 131.3 131.8 130.7 133.0 138.0 140.7 138.9 143.3 148.5 144.8 145.7 145.8 146.7 147.7 148.6 148.3 148.3 148.3 148.5 151.0 151.8 150.8 129.0 133.6 134.5 134.3 135.1 137.2 141.3 140.1 145.9 152.6 150.4 148.4 149.0 151.2 153.1 155.4 154.8 152.0 151.6 151.6 154.1 154.7 154.8 127.5 130.5 130.9 129.5 132.3 138.1 140.4 138.3 142.4 147.2 143.1 144.8 144.8 145.3 146.0 146.7 146.4 147.0 147.3 147.4 150.0 150.8 149.5 materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 124.0 127.6 128.2 126.4 130.5 138.4 141.4 138.8 144.7 150.9 145.6 148.0 148.1 148.6 149.6 150.4 149.8 150.8 150.9 151.0 154.5 155.6 153.6 Durable 132.7 134.2 133.7 132.9 133.0 133.9 134.0 133.0 133.1 135.1 133.5 133.8 133.7 134.5 134.2 135.1 135.7 134.7 134.7 135.5 136.0 136.4 136.5 Nondurable 118.8 123.3 124.3 122.2 127.9 138.7 142.8 139.8 148.4 156.6 149.5 152.9 153.1 153.5 155.1 155.8 154.6 156.6 156.7 156.4 161.4 162.8 159.8 Capital equipment 136.7 138.3 138.2 137.6 137.6 138.8 139.7 139.1 139.5 141.5 139.9 140.2 139.9 140.4 140.5 140.9 141.4 141.3 141.7 142.1 142.7 143.0 143.2 Total finished consumer goods 125.6 129.5 130.2 128.9 132.0 138.2 141.5 139.4 145.3 151.6 147.2 148.4 148.6 149.6 150.9 152.1 151.5 151.4 151.4 151.4 154.6 155.6 154.2 Intermediate materials Crude materials Total Foods and feeds 1 Other Total Foodstuffs and feedstuffs Other 124.9 125.7 125.6 123.0 123.2 129.2 129.7 127.8 133.7 142.5 134.9 136.1 137.4 138.5 140.4 141.8 142.5 143.2 144.8 145.1 146.4 147.5 147.0 114.8 128.1 125.4 116.2 111.1 111.7 115.9 115.5 125.9 137.0 134.3 132.5 134.2 137.5 143.9 148.0 145.0 142.0 135.7 133.1 130.6 130.6 131.7 125.5 125.6 125.7 123.4 123.9 130.1 130.5 128.5 134.2 142.9 135.0 136.4 137.6 138.6 140.4 141.7 142.5 143.4 145.4 145.8 147.3 148.4 147.8 102.7 113.8 111.1 96.8 98.2 120.6 121.0 108.1 135.3 159.0 142.6 148.4 150.7 153.1 155.9 160.9 162.1 161.5 161.3 153.1 159.7 173.6 168.5 105.8 121.5 112.2 103.9 98.7 100.2 106.1 99.5 113.5 126.9 127.3 118.7 123.8 132.3 136.6 139.5 135.4 128.8 123.0 120.4 119.4 121.5 125.0 96.8 104.5 106.4 88.4 94.3 130.4 126.8 111.4 148.2 179.2 150.1 167.1 167.1 164.6 166.2 172.6 177.8 182.2 186.4 174.0 186.4 209.3 197.4 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In December, the consumer price index for all urban consumers fell 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted; it fell 0.4 percent not seasonally adjusted. The index was 3.3 percent above its year-earlier level. [1982–84=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] All items 1 Housing Transportation Shelter Period Not season- Seasonally ally adjust- adjusted ed (NSA) Food Total 1 Rent of primary residence Total 1 Owners’ equivalent rent (12/82= 100) Fuels and utilities Apparel Total 1 New cars Motor fuel Medical care Energy 2 All items less food and energy Rel. imp.3 ......................... 1995 ................................. 1996 ................................. 1997 ................................. 1998 ................................. 1999 ................................. 2000 ................................. 2001 ................................. 2002 ................................. 2003 ................................. 2004 ................................. 100.0 152.4 156.9 160.5 163.0 166.6 172.2 177.1 179.9 184.0 188.9 ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. 14.4 148.4 153.3 157.3 160.7 164.1 167.8 173.1 176.2 180.0 186.2 42.1 148.5 152.8 156.8 160.4 163.9 169.6 176.4 180.3 184.8 189.5 32.9 165.7 171.0 176.3 182.1 187.3 193.4 200.6 208.1 213.1 218.8 6.2 157.8 162.0 166.7 172.1 177.5 183.9 192.1 199.7 205.5 211.0 23.4 171.3 176.8 181.9 187.8 192.9 198.7 206.3 214.7 219.9 224.9 4.7 123.7 127.5 130.8 128.5 128.8 137.9 150.2 143.6 154.5 161.9 4.0 132.0 131.7 132.9 133.0 131.3 129.6 127.3 124.0 120.9 120.4 16.9 ............ 139.1 139.0 143.0 141.4 144.3 141.7 141.6 140.7 144.4 139.6 153.3 139.6 154.3 138.9 152.9 137.3 157.6 134.7 163.1 133.9 3.2 100.0 106.3 106.2 92.2 100.7 129.3 124.7 116.6 135.8 160.4 6.1 220.5 228.2 234.6 242.1 250.6 260.8 272.8 285.6 297.1 310.1 7.1 105.2 110.1 111.5 102.9 106.6 124.6 129.3 121.7 136.5 151.4 78.5 161.2 165.6 169.5 173.4 177.0 181.3 186.1 190.5 193.2 196.6 2003: Dec ...................... 184.3 184.9 183.5 186.1 215.3 207.8 221.9 155.0 120.2 155.3 133.8 130.9 302.7 134.1 194.1 2004: Jan ....................... Feb ....................... Mar ...................... Apr ....................... May ...................... June ..................... July ...................... Aug ....................... Sept ...................... Oct ....................... Nov ....................... Dec ....................... 185.2 186.2 187.4 188.0 189.1 189.7 189.4 189.5 189.9 190.9 191.0 190.3 185.8 186.3 187.2 187.6 188.8 189.4 189.3 189.4 189.7 190.9 191.2 191.1 183.5 183.8 184.1 184.4 186.1 186.4 186.9 187.0 187.0 188.1 188.4 188.4 186.8 187.1 187.7 188.4 189.1 189.6 190.0 190.3 190.7 191.1 191.6 191.9 215.6 215.8 217.1 218.1 218.6 218.8 219.3 219.5 220.4 220.7 220.8 221.3 208.1 208.6 209.0 209.7 210.4 210.9 211.4 212.1 212.4 212.8 213.2 213.6 222.2 222.7 223.3 224.1 224.6 225.0 225.3 225.9 226.1 226.5 226.6 227.0 157.5 158.9 157.1 157.9 159.7 162.7 163.3 164.6 163.7 163.4 166.8 166.9 119.8 119.7 120.8 120.8 121.2 121.4 120.4 120.1 120.1 120.3 120.4 119.9 157.9 159.0 160.8 160.9 163.7 165.0 163.6 163.1 163.4 167.1 167.0 165.5 133.7 134.2 134.0 133.9 134.3 134.6 133.8 133.4 132.9 133.5 134.5 134.4 141.5 145.1 153.1 152.7 164.9 169.9 163.1 160.7 160.9 174.7 171.5 165.2 303.4 305.3 307.0 308.1 309.0 309.9 310.9 311.6 312.6 313.9 314.6 315.5 140.4 142.8 145.5 145.7 152.4 156.4 153.4 153.0 152.4 158.8 159.1 156.2 194.4 194.8 195.5 196.0 196.4 196.6 196.8 196.9 197.5 197.9 198.2 198.5 1 Includes items not shown separately. fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc. excluded beginning 1983. 2 Household 3 Relative importance, December 2003. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Period Change from preceding period Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate Consumer goods Consumer goods Total finished goods Excluding foods Foods Capital equipment Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Consumer goods Total finished goods Foods Excluding foods Capital equipment Total finished goods Foods Excluding foods Capital equipment 2.2 .4 ¥.6 0 .3 1.2 0 ¥.6 .8 2.4 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. ¥0.1 .2 ¥.2 .4 .1 .3 .4 ¥.1 .3 r .3 .4 .2 .1 2.8 2.8 3.6 5.4 5.6 7.9 4.4 1.6 ¥.8 .5 7.5 r 9.8 6.3 8.1 ¥5.5 ¥2.9 2.1 13.3 18.3 9.9 ¥2.8 ¥9.4 ¥8.0 5.6 r 8.4 8.7 1.7 7.3 8.8 8.5 4.4 6.4 3.3 3.2 1.3 3.2 10.2 r 13.1 7.1 0.9 .6 ¥.6 1.4 .9 2.9 2.9 2.3 2.3 2.0 4.0 r 3.7 3.1 3.0 4.1 3.2 4.1 4.2 5.8 4.9 3.6 3.5 2.5 4.5 4.4 3.4 7.4 5.2 4.4 5.1 3.5 7.2 5.9 4.9 3.5 .5 1.3 ¥.9 0 2.2 5.2 4.3 5.0 5.9 7.6 5.9 3.8 3.8 3.3 6.7 7.0 5.1 Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA 1995 ..................... 1996 ..................... 1997 ..................... 1998 ..................... 1999 ..................... 2000 ..................... 2001 ..................... 2002 ..................... 2003 ..................... 2004 p ................... 2.3 2.8 ¥1.2 0 2.9 3.6 ¥1.6 1.2 4.0 4.1 1.9 3.4 ¥.8 .1 .8 1.7 1.8 ¥.6 7.7 2.8 2.3 3.7 ¥1.5 ¥.1 5.1 5.5 ¥3.9 2.9 4.1 5.4 1.9 2.7 .4 ¥.8 1.8 3.8 2.0 ¥1.3 3.2 3.6 Change, month to month 2003: Dec ........... 2004: Jan ............ Feb ........... Mar ........... Apr ............ May ........... June ......... July .......... Aug r .......... Sept ........... Oct ............ Nov ........... Dec ............ 0.2 .6 .1 .6 .7 .6 ¥.2 0 0 .1 1.7 .5 ¥.7 0.2 ¥1.3 .4 1.5 1.3 1.5 ¥.4 ¥1.8 ¥.3 r0 1.6 .4 .1 0.4 1.6 .1 .3 .7 .5 ¥.4 .7 .1 r .1 2.3 .7 ¥1.3 1.0 1.2 .3 1.1 .7 1.1 2.2 1.6 2.6 2.4 3.2 3.0 2.6 4.0 3.3 2.1 1.5 3.7 4.9 4.0 3.8 3.3 3.3 4.4 5.0 4.1 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Housing Transportation Shelter Period All items 1 Food Total 1 Total 1 Rent of Ownpriers’ mary equivaresilent dence rent Fuels and utilities Apparel Total 1 New cars Motor fuel Medical care Energy 2 All items less food and energy Addendum: All items, percent change (annual rate) From previous quarter 3 From From 3 6 months months earlier earlier From year earlier NSA Change, December to December, NSA 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... .......................... 2.5 3.3 1.7 1.6 2.7 3.4 1.6 2.4 1.9 3.3 2.1 4.3 1.5 2.3 1.9 2.8 2.8 1.5 3.6 2.7 3.0 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.2 4.3 2.9 2.4 2.2 3.0 3.5 2.9 3.4 3.3 2.5 3.4 4.2 3.1 2.2 2.7 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.1 4.0 4.7 3.1 2.7 2.9 3.7 2.8 3.1 3.2 2.4 3.4 4.5 3.3 2.0 2.3 1.4 4.6 .5 ¥2.6 2.4 12.1 ¥2.1 1.4 6.5 7.9 0.1 ¥.2 1.0 ¥.7 ¥.5 ¥1.8 ¥3.2 ¥1.8 ¥2.1 ¥.2 1.5 4.4 ¥1.4 ¥1.7 5.4 4.1 ¥3.8 3.8 .3 6.5 1.6 1.6 ¥1.0 ¥.1 ¥.8 .3 0 ¥2.0 ¥2.1 .5 ¥4.0 12.7 ¥6.2 ¥15.4 30.2 13.9 ¥24.8 24.6 6.8 26.1 3.9 3.0 2.8 3.4 3.7 4.2 4.7 5.0 3.7 4.2 ¥1.3 8.6 ¥3.4 ¥8.8 13.4 14.2 ¥13.0 10.7 6.9 16.6 3.0 2.6 2.2 2.4 1.9 2.6 2.7 1.9 1.1 2.2 .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... .......... 2.8 3.0 2.3 1.6 2.2 3.4 2.8 1.6 2.3 2.7 ¥0.1 ¥.1 .4 ¥.1 ¥.1 .3 .2 ¥.6 ¥.3 ¥.4 .5 .7 ¥.1 0 8.1 2.5 5.5 ¥.3 8.0 3.0 ¥4.0 ¥1.5 .1 8.6 ¥1.8 ¥3.7 0.5 .2 .6 .6 .4 .3 .3 .3 .2 .3 .4 .2 .3 0.3 4.7 1.7 1.9 .1 4.6 2.6 ¥1.9 ¥.3 ¥.4 4.2 .2 ¥1.8 0.1 .2 .2 .4 .3 .2 .1 .1 .1 .3 .2 .2 .2 0.7 .......... .......... 3.5 .......... .......... 4.8 .......... .......... 1.9 .......... .......... 3.4 ¥0.4 2.0 3.7 5.1 3.9 5.5 4.8 3.7 1.3 .6 3.4 3.9 3.0 1.5 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.9 4.6 4.9 3.8 3.4 2.7 3.5 2.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 2.3 3.1 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.5 3.2 3.5 3.3 Change, month to month 2003: Dec ............... 2004: Jan ............... Feb ................ Mar ............... Apr ................ May ............... June .............. July ............... Aug ................ Sept ............... Oct ................ Nov ................ Dec ................ 1 Includes 0.2 .5 .3 .5 .2 .6 .3 ¥.1 .1 .2 .6 .2 ¥.1 0.5 0 .2 .2 .2 .9 .2 .3 .1 0 .6 .2 0 0.2 .4 .2 .3 .4 .4 .3 .2 .2 .2 .2 .3 .2 0.2 .1 .1 .6 .5 .2 .1 .2 .1 .4 .1 .0 .2 0.2 .1 .2 .2 .3 .3 .2 .2 .3 .1 .2 .2 .2 0.1 .1 .2 .3 .4 .2 .2 .1 .3 .1 .2 .0 .2 0.5 1.6 .9 ¥1.1 .5 1.1 1.9 .4 .8 ¥.5 ¥.2 2.1 .1 ¥0.3 ¥.3 ¥.1 .9 0 .3 .2 ¥.8 ¥.2 0 .2 .1 ¥.4 items not shown separately. fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc., excluded beginning 1983. 2 Household 24 ¥0.2 1.7 .7 1.1 .1 1.7 .8 ¥.8 ¥.3 .2 2.3 ¥.1 ¥.9 3 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS In January, prices received by farmers fell 0.9 percent, while prices paid by farmers rose 0.8 percent. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) [1990–92=100; not seasonally adjusted] Prices received by farmers Period 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 All farm products Prices paid by farmers Livestock and products Crops All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates 1 Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates Production items Ratio 2 ............................... ............................... .............................. .............................. ............................... .............................. .............................. .............................. .............................. ............................... 102 112 107 102 96 96 102 98 107 119 112 127 115 107 97 96 99 105 111 117 92 99 98 97 95 97 106 90 103 122 109 115 118 115 115 120 123 124 128 133 108 115 118 114 113 118 122 121 126 132 108 115 119 113 111 116 120 119 124 131 93 98 90 89 83 80 83 79 r 84 90 2004: Jan .................... Feb .................... Mar .................... Apr .................... May .................... June .................. July .................... Aug .................... Sept ................... Oct ..................... Nov .................... Dec .................... 2005: Jan .................... 112 116 121 125 129 128 124 r 121 115 r 114 r 116 111 110 113 121 r 121 123 124 r 122 120 118 r 113 r 111 r 112 103 100 110 112 r 122 126 133 133 128 123 118 117 r 119 120 121 130 131 132 133 135 135 135 134 134 135 134 133 134 129 129 130 132 133 133 r 134 r 133 r 133 133 132 131 132 r 127 86 89 92 94 96 95 92 90 86 84 r 87 83 82 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. 127 129 131 132 132 133 132 131 132 131 130 131 NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910–14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1990–92=100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK AND DEBT MEASURES In January, M2 and M3 rose. [Averages of daily figures, except debt end-of-period basis; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] M1 M2 M3 Debt Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers’ checks, and other checkable deposits (OCDs) M1 plus retail MMMF balances, savings deposits (including MMDAs), and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, RPs, Eurodollars, and institutional MMMF balances Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors1 Dec r ...................................................... Dec r ...................................................... Dec r ...................................................... Dec r ...................................................... Dec r ...................................................... Dec r ...................................................... Dec r ...................................................... Dec r ...................................................... Dec r ...................................................... Dec ........................................................ 1,126.9 1,079.8 1,072.2 1,094.8 1,122.4 1,087.5 1,179.1 1,216.7 1,292.8 1,362.0 3,640.9 3,817.0 4,032.0 4,384.6 4,650.2 4,934.7 5,452.4 5,803.7 6,076.6 6,417.0 4,636.0 4,985.4 5,460.5 6,051.9 6,552.0 7,120.3 8,034.8 8,571.5 8,877.4 9,426.8 13,674.5 14,391.4 15,159.4 16,201.1 17,269.9 18,118.5 19,237.1 20,554.7 22,261.0 ...................... ¥2.1 ¥4.2 ¥.7 2.1 2.5 ¥3.1 8.4 3.2 6.3 5.4 4.1 4.8 5.6 8.7 6.1 6.1 10.5 6.4 4.7 5.6 6.1 7.5 9.5 10.8 8.3 8.7 12.8 6.7 3.6 6.2 5.3 5.2 5.3 6.9 6.4 4.8 6.2 6.8 8.1 ............ 2004: Jan r ...................................................... Feb r ...................................................... Mar r ...................................................... Apr r ...................................................... May r ...................................................... June r ..................................................... July r ...................................................... Aug r ...................................................... Sept r ..................................................... Oct r ....................................................... Nov r ...................................................... Dec ........................................................ 1,289.9 1,307.7 1,320.9 1,321.3 1,324.8 1,332.6 1,325.5 1,343.4 1,347.9 1,347.8 1,362.8 1,362.0 6,089.3 6,128.1 6,166.8 6,204.3 6,262.6 6,274.7 6,277.5 6,298.0 6,333.0 6,357.8 6,394.2 6,417.0 8,936.7 9,001.1 9,078.4 9,144.7 9,234.0 9,274.6 9,277.7 9,310.3 9,358.4 9,363.3 9,386.4 9,426.8 ...................... ...................... 22,767.2 ...................... ...................... 23,165.2 ...................... ...................... 23,607.5 ...................... ...................... ...................... 2.6 3.9 6.0 5.9 6.2 6.2 5.5 5.5 4.1 4.0 5.7 4.4 1.0 .8 2.7 4.2 6.3 6.5 6.2 5.5 5.4 4.9 4.2 4.5 1.5 2.2 4.1 5.6 8.1 8.9 7.6 6.9 6.2 4.8 3.3 3.3 ............ ............ 9.1 ............ ............ 7.0 ............ ............ 7.4 ............ ............ ............ 2005: Jan p ...................................................... 1,353.5 6,430.3 9,468.1 ...................... 4.2 4.9 4.1 ............ Period 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: 2003: 2004: 1 Quarterly data; shown in last month of quarter. End-of-year data are for fourth quarter. Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a simple annual rate. 26 3 Annual Percent change From year or 6 months earlier2 M1 M2 M3 From previous period3 Debt changes are from fourth quarter to fourth quarter. Quarterly changes are from previous quarter at an annual rate. NOTE.—Data for money stock and components reflect annual seasonal adjustment revisions released on February 3, 2005. See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period Currency Nonbank travelers checks Demand deposits Savings deposits, including money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) Other checkable deposits (OCDs) Small denomination time deposits 1 Money market mutual fund balances Large denomination time deposits 1 Institutional Retail Overnight and term Overnight repurand term chase Euroagreedollars ments (net) (RPs) (net) Dec r .......................................... Dec r .......................................... Dec r .......................................... Dec r .......................................... Dec r .......................................... Dec r .......................................... Dec r .......................................... Dec r .......................................... Dec r .......................................... Dec ........................................... 372.2 394.1 424.5 459.8 517.5 531.3 581.4 626.4 662.4 697.4 9.0 8.8 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.3 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.6 389.2 401.6 393.8 376.9 353.1 309.4 331.7 302.4 311.2 327.8 356.5 275.4 245.4 249.5 243.3 238.5 258.0 280.2 311.5 329.2 1,133.8 1,272.9 1,399.5 1,605.2 1,740.9 1,878.7 2,314.1 2,781.2 3,175.7 3,529.2 931.3 946.9 968.2 951.9 954.4 1,044.5 972.7 891.8 808.7 813.1 448.8 517.4 592.1 732.6 832.5 924.0 986.5 914.0 799.4 712.8 263.6 322.0 395.6 539.7 636.3 789.9 1,194.3 1,247.1 1,117.2 1,066.4 438.9 521.0 631.1 683.7 758.7 836.4 800.5 812.5 880.7 1,071.4 198.6 210.7 254.4 293.8 335.9 363.8 375.8 476.8 509.3 509.9 94.0 114.6 147.5 150.2 170.8 195.4 211.8 231.5 293.6 362.1 2004: Jan r .......................................... Feb r .......................................... Mar r .......................................... Apr r .......................................... May r .......................................... June r ......................................... July r ......................................... Aug r .......................................... Sept r ......................................... Oct r ........................................... Nov r .......................................... Dec ........................................... 664.6 666.5 668.4 670.8 674.1 678.4 684.6 686.6 689.9 692.5 697.2 697.4 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 302.5 315.0 323.2 320.9 320.0 321.0 307.3 321.3 324.5 320.0 326.5 327.8 315.0 318.4 321.6 321.8 323.0 325.5 325.9 328.0 325.9 327.6 331.4 329.2 3,208.5 3,242.0 3,282.2 3,328.2 3,383.3 3,395.4 3,414.6 3,421.2 3,453.7 3,483.2 3,506.5 3,529.2 805.9 803.9 801.8 799.2 795.6 794.8 796.6 800.1 803.6 806.2 809.8 813.1 785.0 774.5 761.9 755.6 758.9 752.0 740.7 733.3 727.7 720.6 715.1 712.8 1,114.4 1,105.2 1,113.0 1,120.9 1,123.6 1,122.5 1,108.2 1,104.7 1,100.1 1,076.1 1,066.9 1,066.4 915.5 923.9 944.3 965.3 981.3 995.3 1,014.7 1,024.6 1,031.5 1,041.8 1,049.0 1,071.4 515.3 535.1 539.2 530.1 541.6 554.5 542.1 540.8 542.1 525.0 517.2 509.9 302.2 308.9 315.0 324.0 324.9 327.6 335.2 342.3 351.8 362.6 359.2 362.1 2005: Jan p .......................................... 700.2 7.5 320.5 325.3 3,544.2 822.3 710.4 1,056.2 1,132.0 480.6 369.0 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: 2003: 2004: 1 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. Note.—See Note, p. 26. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE [Averages of daily figures 1;millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements Borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal Reserve (NSA) Reserves of depository institutions Period Total 2 Nonborrowed 3 Required Monetary base Excess (NSA) Primary Secondary 257 155 324 117 320 210 67 80 46 63 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ 17 11 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ 0 0 40 68 79 15 67 111 33 45 29 52 217 87 245 101 179 99 34 35 ................ ................ 758,180 758,305 106 42 51 86 112 180 245 251 335 179 183 63 93 28 23 29 9 40 42 18 97 15 105 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 14 28 57 103 140 203 233 238 164 78 52 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ 761,009 62 39 0 23 ................ .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. 56,430 50,149 46,848 45,254 41,928 38,677 41,411 40,442 42,843 46,596 56,173 49,994 46,523 45,138 41,607 38,467 41,344 40,362 42,797 46,533 55,140 48,733 45,163 43,741 40,631 37,249 39,760 38,433 41,804 44,681 1,290 1,416 1,685 1,514 1,297 1,427 1,651 2,009 1,039 1,915 r 434,471 2004: Jan .................................. Feb .................................. Mar ................................. Apr .................................. May ................................. June ................................ July ................................. Aug ................................. Sept ................................. Oct .................................. Nov r ................................ Dec .................................. 43,204 42,999 44,739 45,688 45,390 45,935 45,733 44,754 46,252 46,035 45,946 46,596 43,098 42,957 44,688 45,602 45,279 45,755 45,488 44,502 45,917 45,856 45,763 46,533 42,314 41,805 42,933 43,881 43,747 44,047 44,022 43,203 44,686 44,318 44,174 44,681 891 1,194 1,806 1,807 1,643 1,888 1,711 1,551 1,566 1,717 1,772 1,915 r 722,268 2005: Jan p ................................ 47,667 47,605 45,925 1,742 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: 2003: 2004: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 1 Data are prorated averages of biweekly (maintenance period) averages of daily figures. Reserves and monetary base incorporate adjustments for discontinuities, or ‘‘breaks,’’ associated with changes in reserve requirements. 2 Seasonally adjusted break-adjusted required reserves plus unadjusted excess reserves. r 451,933 r 479,786 r 513,814 r 593,468 r 584,733 r 635,319 r 681,195 r 719,828 758,305 r 724,921 r 727,274 r 730,894 r 734,655 r 739,415 r 745,562 r 747,145 r 751,644 r 754,141 Total Seasonal Adjustment 4 3 Seasonally adjusted break-adjusted total reserves less unadjusted total borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal Reserve. 4 Discontinued after January 8, 2003. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK CREDIT AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS Total commercial bank loans and leases rose 0.3 percent in December; commercial and industrial loans rose 0.9 percent. [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1] Securities in bank credit Period 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: 2003: 2004: 2004: Dec ........... Dec r .......... Dec r .......... Dec r .......... Dec r .......... Dec r .......... Dec r .......... Dec r .......... Dec r .......... Dec ........... Jan r .......... Feb r .......... Mar r ......... Apr r .......... May r ......... June r ........ July r ......... Aug r ......... Sept r ......... Oct r .......... Nov r ......... Dec ........... Total bank credit 3,601.0 3,756.9 4,099.3 4,532.9 4,763.5 5,217.1 5,428.1 5,885.7 6,249.6 6,773.8 6,320.8 6,440.7 6,517.7 6,536.5 6,544.6 6,587.2 6,601.7 6,631.2 6,697.3 6,709.9 6,750.2 6,773.8 Total securities U.S. Treasury and agency securities 984.0 984.3 1,098.6 1,237.0 1,282.8 1,348.6 1,493.8 1,721.1 1,850.7 1,930.6 1,855.1 1,930.3 1,980.1 1,952.2 1,928.9 1,933.0 1,907.2 1,913.8 1,923.8 1,918.3 1,923.8 1,930.6 701.1 702.4 755.3 797.3 815.3 792.0 852.5 1,028.3 1,103.6 1,149.4 1,105.0 1,169.6 1,204.1 1,198.9 1,187.9 1,188.6 1,180.1 1,182.1 1,177.2 1,148.9 1,146.3 1,149.4 Loans and leases in bank credit Real estate CommerOther Total loans cial and securities and leases 2 industrial 282.9 281.9 343.3 439.8 467.5 556.6 641.2 692.8 747.2 781.2 750.1 760.7 776.0 753.3 741.0 744.4 727.0 731.8 746.7 769.4 777.6 781.2 2,617.0 2,772.6 3,000.7 3,295.9 3,480.6 3,868.5 3,934.3 4,164.6 4,398.9 4,843.2 4,465.7 4,510.5 4,537.5 4,584.3 4,615.7 4,654.2 4,694.6 4,717.4 4,773.5 4,791.6 4,826.4 4,843.2 1 Data are prorated averages of Wednesday values for domestically chartered commercial banks, branches and agencies of foreign banks, New York State investment companies (through September 1996), and Edge Act and agreement corporations. Data are adjusted for breaks caused by reclassifications of assets and liabilities. 28 723.8 784.7 854.1 947.4 998.8 1,087.0 1,027.2 963.1 891.7 908.4 889.0 887.9 878.2 874.5 874.4 878.2 882.5 890.3 893.3 894.6 900.7 908.4 Total 1,089.5 1,140.1 1,242.7 1,332.9 1,471.1 1,650.4 1,779.5 2,021.0 2,215.4 2,535.8 2,240.9 2,262.7 2,303.8 2,361.4 2,395.7 2,409.3 2,417.7 2,433.7 2,457.6 2,489.8 2,513.6 2,535.8 Revolving home equity 84.5 90.9 105.0 103.9 101.5 130.0 155.8 213.5 280.8 397.7 291.2 297.6 308.1 318.0 327.9 337.6 346.9 357.9 369.0 382.8 392.5 397.7 Consumer Security Other Other 1,004.9 1,049.2 1,137.7 1,229.0 1,369.6 1,520.3 1,623.7 1,807.5 1,934.7 2,138.1 1,949.6 1,965.1 1,995.7 2,043.4 2,067.9 2,071.7 2,070.8 2,075.8 2,088.6 2,107.0 2,121.1 2,138.1 491.4 512.9 502.6 496.9 490.6 539.3 556.0 586.7 629.8 673.9 632.2 634.3 639.4 640.1 641.7 644.2 672.4 672.7 674.2 670.9 665.7 673.9 83.2 75.3 94.4 145.3 149.8 177.3 146.0 190.2 215.2 221.5 233.7 243.2 243.0 237.6 232.6 248.1 243.5 238.8 254.4 247.5 242.7 221.5 229.1 259.6 306.9 373.3 370.2 414.4 425.6 403.6 446.8 503.6 469.9 482.4 473.2 470.7 471.2 474.5 478.5 481.9 493.9 488.9 503.7 503.6 2 Excludes Federal funds sold to, reverse repurchase agreements (RPs) with, and loans to commercial banks in the United States. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External (Net increase in liabilities) Funds raised in markets Period Total 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2002: .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. I ............. II ........... III .......... IV .......... 2003: I ............. II ........... III .......... IV .......... 2004: I ............. II ........... III p ........ 796.8 997.4 1,066.4 1,004.2 1,307.0 1,730.9 1,973.3 869.7 955.3 1,205.2 639.3 950.8 894.4 1,336.7 1,098.3 1,294.6 1,089.1 1,338.9 1,490.4 1,293.7 1,316.5 Internal 1 555.2 606.6 667.9 720.7 691.0 743.3 735.9 774.5 844.2 942.4 824.8 836.5 834.1 881.3 840.5 930.3 967.3 1,031.6 1,026.4 1,022.9 1,078.9 Credit market instruments Total 241.6 390.8 398.5 283.5 616.0 987.6 1,237.4 95.2 111.1 262.8 ¥185.5 114.3 60.3 455.4 257.8 364.3 121.8 307.3 464.0 270.8 237.6 Capital expenditures 3 Total Total net funds raised Net new equity issues Total 81.6 168.8 135.4 214.4 182.1 263.6 236.2 180.6 ¥12.7 88.8 63.3 6.5 ¥192.8 72.2 100.1 222.7 27.0 5.6 113.2 ¥67.1 ¥14.4 ¥44.9 ¥58.3 ¥47.3 ¥77.4 ¥215.5 ¥110.4 ¥118.2 ¥47.4 ¥41.6 ¥57.8 ¥10.6 15.5 ¥140.8 ¥30.5 ¥67.0 ¥50.2 ¥44.9 ¥69.0 ¥82.6 ¥159.5 ¥208.8 126.5 227.1 182.8 291.8 397.6 374.0 354.4 228.0 28.9 146.6 73.9 ¥9.0 ¥52.0 102.7 167.1 272.9 71.9 74.6 195.8 92.4 194.4 1 Profits before tax (book) less taxes on corporate income, less net dividends, plus capital consumption allowance (consumption of fixed capital plus capital consumption adjustment), foreign earnings retained abroad, inventory valuation adjustment, and net capital transfers. 2 Includes trade payables, taxes payable, and miscellaneous liabilities (foreign direct investment in the U.S., pension fund contributions payable, and other). Securities and mortgages 32.2 102.2 129.2 187.2 242.8 269.0 192.4 411.8 173.6 246.8 299.3 219.9 2.6 172.3 245.8 405.3 196.9 139.5 206.1 75.2 145.3 Loans and shortterm paper Other 2 94.3 124.9 53.7 104.6 154.9 104.9 162.0 ¥183.8 ¥144.7 ¥100.3 ¥225.4 ¥228.9 ¥54.6 ¥69.6 ¥78.7 ¥132.2 ¥125.0 ¥65.0 ¥10.4 17.2 49.1 160.0 222.1 263.1 69.0 433.8 724.1 1,001.3 ¥85.3 123.8 173.9 ¥248.8 107.8 253.2 383.1 157.7 141.5 94.9 301.7 350.8 337.9 252.0 841.2 1,064.6 1,108.3 1,024.2 1,343.7 1,828.8 2,137.7 987.7 912.3 1,235.9 596.2 872.1 856.1 1,324.8 1,129.3 1,312.0 1,128.6 1,373.8 1,517.0 1,365.3 1,412.3 566.1 638.2 654.3 751.8 773.8 858.9 928.5 810.1 761.7 764.9 764.5 759.3 766.8 756.2 743.7 736.9 772.8 806.2 843.4 895.6 893.3 Increase in financial assets 275.1 426.4 454.0 272.4 569.9 969.9 1,209.2 177.6 150.6 471.0 ¥168.3 112.8 89.3 568.6 385.6 575.1 355.8 567.6 673.6 469.7 519.0 Discrepancy (sources less uses) ¥44.4 ¥67.1 ¥41.9 ¥20.1 ¥36.8 ¥97.9 ¥164.5 ¥118.0 43.0 ¥30.7 43.2 78.7 38.4 11.9 ¥31.0 ¥17.5 ¥39.5 ¥34.9 ¥26.6 ¥71.6 ¥95.8 3 Nonresidential fixed investment plus residential fixed investment, inventory change with inventory valuation adjustment, and nonproduced nonfinancial assets. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER CREDIT [Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Consumer credit outstanding (end of period) Period Total 1995: 1996: 1997: 1998: 1999: 2000: 2001: 2002: 2003: 2004: 2003: 2004: Dec ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Jan ............................................................................... Feb ............................................................................... Mar .............................................................................. Apr ............................................................................... May r ............................................................................. June r ............................................................................ July r ............................................................................. Aug r ............................................................................. Sept r ............................................................................. Oct r .............................................................................. Nov ............................................................................... Dec ............................................................................... Revolving 1,141.0 1,242.9 1,313.1 1,416.8 1,530.4 1,705.1 1,842.2 1,924.2 2,011.3 2,103.7 2,011.3 2,037.8 2,038.2 2,043.0 2,045.2 2,048.0 2,052.6 2,064.6 2,067.5 2,084.5 2,098.6 2,100.6 2,103.7 1 Change based on data in billions of dollars as shown here. For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month. 2 Includes automobile loans and all other loans not included in revolving credit, such as loans for mobile homes, education, boats, trailers, or vacations. These loans may be secured or unsecured. 443.5 499.6 529.8 578.9 607.6 677.7 722.3 738.3 758.7 790.5 758.7 769.8 770.1 768.9 765.1 763.9 765.2 773.4 773.6 785.1 789.0 789.6 790.5 Nonrevolving 2 697.5 743.2 783.4 837.8 922.8 1,027.4 1,119.9 1,185.9 1,252.6 1,313.2 1,252.6 1,268.0 1,268.1 1,274.1 1,280.1 1,284.1 1,287.4 1,291.2 1,293.9 1,299.4 1,309.6 1,311.0 1,313.2 Net change in consumer credit outstanding 1 Total 143.9 101.9 70.2 103.7 113.6 174.7 137.1 82.0 87.1 92.4 4.6 26.5 .4 4.8 2.2 2.8 4.6 12.0 2.9 17.0 14.1 2.0 3.1 Revolving 77.9 56.1 30.2 49.1 28.7 70.1 44.6 16.0 20.4 31.8 ¥1.7 11.1 .3 ¥1.2 ¥3.8 ¥1.2 1.3 8.2 .2 11.5 3.9 .6 .9 Nonrevolving 2 65.9 45.7 40.2 54.4 85.0 104.6 92.5 66.0 66.7 60.6 6.3 15.4 .1 6.0 6.0 4.0 3.3 3.8 2.7 5.5 10.2 1.4 2.2 NOTE.—Effective October 7, 2003 data beginning 1977 include student loans extended by the Federal Government and by SLM Holding Corporation. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Short-term interest rates rose in January. [Percent per annum] U.S. Treasury security yields Constant Period 1995 ....................... 1996 ....................... 1997 ....................... 1998 ....................... 1999 ....................... 2000 ....................... 2001 ....................... 2002 ....................... 2003 ....................... 2004 ....................... 2004: Jan ............. Feb .............. Mar ............. Apr .............. May ............. June ............ July ............. Aug ............. Sept ............. Oct .............. Nov ............. Dec .............. 2005: Jan ............. Week ended: 2005: Jan 8 ........ 15 ........ 22 ........ 29 ........ Feb 5 ........ 1 Bank-discount 3-month bills (new issues) 1 3-year maturities 2 10-year 30-year Highgrade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor’s) 3 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody’s) 30 Primary credit 5.51 5.02 5.07 4.81 4.66 5.85 3.45 1.62 1.02 1.38 0.89 0.92 0.94 0.94 1.04 1.27 1.35 1.48 1.65 1.75 2.06 2.20 2.32 6.25 5.99 6.10 5.14 5.49 6.22 4.09 3.10 2.10 2.78 2.27 2.25 2.00 2.57 3.10 3.26 3.05 2.88 2.83 2.85 3.09 3.21 3.39 6.57 6.44 6.35 5.26 5.65 6.03 5.02 4.61 4.01 4.27 4.15 4.08 3.83 4.35 4.72 4.73 4.50 4.28 4.13 4.10 4.19 4.23 4.22 6.88 6.71 6.61 5.58 5.87 5.94 5.49 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 5.95 5.75 5.55 5.12 5.43 5.77 5.19 5.05 4.73 4.63 4.53 4.48 4.39 4.84 5.03 5.00 4.82 4.65 4.49 4.43 4.48 4.40 4.28 7.59 7.37 7.26 6.53 7.04 7.62 7.08 6.49 5.67 5.63 5.54 5.50 5.33 5.73 6.04 6.01 5.82 5.65 5.46 5.47 5.52 5.47 5.36 .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 2.12 2.34 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.25 2.50 2.75 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.25 2.28 2.33 2.36 2.32 2.48 3.36 3.39 3.39 3.41 3.46 4.28 4.25 4.19 4.19 4.14 * * * * * 4.33 4.30 4.25 4.23 4.15 5.47 5.40 5.30 5.28 5.20 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.50 basis. on actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Discount window borrowing for primary credit and discount rate (adjustment credit). The rate for primary credit replaced the rate for adjustment credit under an amendment to the Federal Reserve Board’s Regulation A, effective January 9, 2003. 5 Average effective rate for year; rate in effect at end of month or week. 2 Yields Discount window (N.Y. F.R. Bank) 4 5 6 Daily Discount rate 5.21 5.02 5.00 4.92 4.62 5.73 3.40 1.17 Prime rate charged by banks 5 Federal funds rate 6 Newhome mortgage yields (FHFB) 7 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 8.83 8.27 8.44 8.35 8.00 9.23 6.91 4.67 4.12 4.34 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75 4.75 5.00 5.25 5.25 5.83 5.30 5.46 5.35 4.97 6.24 3.88 1.67 1.13 1.35 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.03 1.26 1.43 1.61 1.76 1.93 2.16 2.28 7.87 7.80 7.71 7.07 7.04 7.52 7.00 6.43 5.80 5.77 5.48 5.72 5.42 5.49 5.77 5.81 5.96 5.88 5.72 5.82 5.91 6.02 .............. * * * * * 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.50 2.14 2.25 2.28 2.27 2.43 .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. effective rate; weighted average of rates on brokered trades. 7 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. *Series no longer published or discontinued. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Housing Finance Board, Moody’s Investors Service, and Standard & Poor’s. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices fell in January. Common stock prices 1 Period New York Stock Exchange indexes 2 3 (December 31, 2002=5,000) Dow Jones industrial average 4 Common stock yields (percent) 7 Standard & Poor’s composite index (1941– 43=10) 5 Nasdaq composite index (Feb. 5, 1971=100) 6 Dividendprice ratio Earningsprice ratio Composite Financial Energy Health Care ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... ....................................................... 3,078.56 3,787.20 4,827.35 5,818.26 6,546.81 6,805.89 6,397.85 5,578.89 r 5,447.46 6,612.62 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ 5,583.00 6,822.18 .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. 5,273.90 6,952.36 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ 5,288.67 5,924.80 4,493.76 5,742.89 7,441.15 8,625.52 10,464.88 10,734.90 10,189.13 9,226.43 8,993.59 10,317.39 541.72 670.50 873.43 1,085.50 1,327.33 1,427.22 1,194.18 993.94 965.23 1,130.65 925.19 1,164.96 1,469.49 1,794.91 2,728.15 3,783.67 2,035.00 1,539.73 1,647.17 1,986.53 2.56 2.19 1.77 1.49 1.25 1.15 1.32 1.61 1.77 1.72 6.09 5.24 4.57 3.46 3.17 3.63 2.95 2.92 3.84 .................. 2004: Jan .............................................. Feb .............................................. Mar ............................................. Apr .............................................. May ............................................. June ............................................ July ............................................. Aug ............................................. Sept ............................................. Oct .............................................. Nov ............................................. Dec .............................................. 6,569.76 6,661.38 6,574.75 6,600.77 6,371.44 6,548.06 6,443.45 6,352.83 6,551.90 6,608.98 6,933.75 7,134.42 6,827.35 6,978.62 6,914.60 6,792.05 6,495.19 6,683.10 6,569.52 6,566.19 6,773.95 6,792.44 7,118.40 7,354.73 6,323.29 6,337.87 6,455.53 6,638.65 6,572.79 6,780.86 6,971.57 6,866.75 7,270.08 7,593.71 7,773.26 7,843.99 6,000.57 6,134.16 5,908.76 6,028.53 6,022.12 6,063.65 5,823.34 5,733.68 5,890.05 5,668.02 5,818.20 6,006.46 10,540.05 10,601.50 10,323.73 10,418.40 10,083.81 10,364.90 10,152.09 10,032.80 10,204.67 10,001.60 10,411.76 10,673.38 1,132.52 1,143.36 1,123.98 1,133.08 1,102.78 1,132.76 1,105.85 1,088.94 1,117.66 1,118.07 1,168.94 1,199.21 2,098.00 2,048.36 1,979.48 2,021.32 1,930.09 2,000.98 1,912.42 1,821.54 1,884.73 1,938.25 2,062.87 2,149.53 1.62 1.63 1.68 1.68 1.74 1.70 1.77 1.81 1.78 1.79 1.74 1.72 .................. .................. 4.62 .................. .................. 4.92 .................. .................. 5.18 .................. .................. .................. 2005: Jan .............................................. 7,056.85 7,282.65 7,841.24 5,970.34 10,539.51 1,181.41 2,071.87 1.77 .................. Week ended: 2005: Jan 8 15 22 29 Feb 5 7,091.98 7,059.27 7,045.21 7,022.01 7,154.24 7,364.20 7,286.57 7,262.18 7,214.94 7,331.40 7,662.93 7,771.07 7,876.40 8,012.86 8,262.74 6,013.65 6,005.37 5,955.03 5,918.40 5,955.63 10,636.98 10,571.77 10,508.31 10,444.67 10,589.58 1,189.59 1,184.58 1,180.97 1,170.43 1,191.36 2,105.97 2,085.53 2,064.95 2,031.54 2,070.09 1.76 1.76 1.76 1.78 1.76 .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1 Average ...................................... ..................................... ..................................... ..................................... ...................................... of daily closing prices. all the stocks (nearly 3,000) listed on the NYSE. January 9, 2003, the NYSE relaunched the composite index with changes in methodology, definitions, and based on Dec. 31, 2002=5,000. Effective January 8, 2004 new indexes for Financial, Energy, and Health Care were introduced by the NYSE. Previous indexes shown for Industrial, Transportation, Utility, and Finance were discontinued. 4 Includes 30 stocks. 2 Includes 3 Effective 5 Includes 500 stocks. over 5,000 stocks. & Poor’s series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. 6 Includes 7 Standard Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones & Company, Inc., Standard & Poor’s, and Nasdaq Stock Market. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first 4 months of fiscal 2005, there was a deficit of $109.2 billion, compared with a deficit of $131.5 billion a year earlier. [Billions of dollars] Total Fiscal year or period Receipts 1988 ...................................... 1989 ...................................... 1990 ...................................... 1991 ...................................... 1992 ...................................... 1993 ...................................... 1994 ...................................... 1995 ...................................... 1996 ...................................... 1997 ...................................... 1998 ...................................... 1999 ...................................... 2000 ...................................... 2001 ...................................... 2002 ...................................... 2003 r ..................................... 2004 r ..................................... 2005 (estimates) r ................... Cumulative total, first 4 months: 1 Fiscal year 2004 ............... Fiscal year 2005 ............... 1 Data 32 909.3 991.2 1,032.0 1,055.0 1,091.3 1,154.4 1,258.6 1,351.8 1,453.1 1,579.3 1,721.8 1,827.5 2,025.2 1,991.2 1,853.2 1,782.3 1,880.1 2,052.8 625.9 689.4 Outlays On-budget Surplus or deficit (¥) 1,064.5 ¥155.2 r1,143.8 r¥152.6 r1,253.1 r¥221.1 r1,324.3 Receipts Outlays Off-budget Surplus or deficit (¥) r860.1 r¥192.3 r932.9 r¥205.4 1,028.1 r¥277.7 Surplus or deficit (¥) Gross Federal Held by the public r204.4 r37.1 ¥300.4 ¥258.9 ¥226.4 ¥174.1 ¥103.3 ¥30.0 1.9 r 86.3 r¥32.5 ¥317.5 ¥538.4 ¥567.4 ¥588.5 210.9 225.1 241.7 252.3 266.6 279.4 288.7 300.9 310.6 316.6 320.8 330.8 346.8 355.7 363.0 379.5 399.4 52.8 56.6 52.2 50.1 45.3 55.7 62.4 66.6 81.4 99.2 123.7 149.8 160.7 159.7 160.8 155.2 162.0 2,601.1 2,867.8 3,206.3 3,598.2 4,001.8 4,351.0 4,643.3 4,920.6 5,181.5 5,369.2 5,478.2 5,605.5 5,628.7 5,769.9 6,198.4 6,760.0 7,354.7 8,031.4 2,051.6 2,190.7 2,411.6 2,689.0 2,999.7 3,248.4 3,433.1 3,604.4 3,734.1 3,772.3 3,721.1 3,632.4 3,409.8 3,319.6 3,540.4 3,913.4 4,295.5 4,721.2 ¥196.2 ¥178.7 169.9 179.2 105.2 109.8 64.7 69.4 6,986.6 7,600.9 4,036.6 4,415.1 r1,082.6 ¥321.5 1,129.3 1,142.9 1,182.5 r1,227.2 1,259.6 1,290.6 1,336.0 1,381.1 r1,458.3 r 1,516.2 1,655.3 1,796.9 1,912.7 2,080.0 r¥340.4 1,409.5 1,461.9 1,515.8 1,560.5 r1,601.2 1,652.6 1,701.9 r 1,789.1 r 1,863.0 2,011.0 2,159.9 2,292.2 2,479.4 ¥269.3 r¥290.3 ¥255.1 r¥203.2 ¥164.0 ¥107.5 r¥21.9 69.2 r125.5 r 236.2 r 128.2 ¥157.8 ¥377.6 ¥412.1 ¥426.6 757.5 798.7 ¥131.5 ¥109.2 456.1 510.2 652.3 688.8 from current issue Monthly Treasury Statement. Outlays 241.5 263.7 281.7 293.9 302.4 311.9 335.0 351.1 367.5 392.0 415.8 444.5 480.6 507.5 515.3 523.8 534.7 561.4 667.8 727.5 750.3 761.2 788.9 842.5 923.6 1,000.8 1,085.6 1,187.3 1,306.0 1,383.0 1,544.6 1,483.7 1,337.9 1,258.5 1,345.3 1,491.5 r1,381.6 Receipts Federal debt (end of period) NOTE.—Data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2006, issued February 7, 2005. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 4 months of fiscal 2005, receipts were $63.5 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $41.2 billion higher. [Billions of dollars] On-budget and off-budget receipts Fiscal year or period Total 1988 ............................................... 1989 ............................................... 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... ............................................... 2000 ............................................... 2001 .............................................. 2002 .............................................. 2003 r ............................................. 2004 r ............................................ 2005 (estimates) r .......................... Cumulative total, first 4 months: 2 Fiscal year 2004 ........................ Fiscal year 2005 ........................ Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes Social insurance and retirement receipts On-budget and off-budget outlays National defense Other Total 909.3 991.2 401.2 445.7 94.5 103.3 334.3 359.4 1,032.0 1,055.0 1,091.3 1,154.4 1,258.6 1,351.8 1,453.1 1,579.3 1,721.8 1,827.5 466.9 467.8 476.0 509.7 543.1 590.2 656.4 737.5 828.6 879.5 93.5 98.1 100.3 117.5 140.4 157.0 171.8 182.3 188.7 184.7 380.0 396.0 413.7 428.3 461.5 484.5 509.4 539.4 571.8 611.8 91.5 93.1 101.4 98.9 113.7 120.1 115.4 120.2 132.7 151.5 2,025.2 1,004.5 1,991.2 994.3 1,853.2 858.3 1,782.3 793.7 1,880.1 809.0 2,052.8 893.7 207.3 151.1 148.0 131.8 189.4 226.5 652.9 694.0 700.8 713.0 733.4 773.7 160.6 151.8 146.0 143.9 148.3 158.9 47.6 71.0 230.1 245.0 48.8 48.7 625.9 689.4 299.5 324.7 Total Department of Defense, military 1 International affairs Health Medicare Income Social security security Net interest Other r 138.8 79.3 1,064.5 82.8 r 1,143.8 290.4 303.6 281.9 294.8 10.5 9.6 44.5 48.4 78.9 85.0 130.4 137.4 219.3 232.5 151.8 169.0 r 1,253.1 299.3 273.3 298.4 291.1 281.6 272.1 265.8 270.5 268.5 274.9 289.7 262.3 286.8 278.5 268.6 259.4 253.1 258.3 256.1 261.3 13.8 15.9 16.1 17.2 17.1 16.4 13.5 15.2 13.1 15.2 57.7 71.2 89.5 99.4 107.1 115.4 119.4 123.8 131.4 141.1 98.1 104.5 119.0 130.6 144.7 159.9 174.2 190.0 192.8 190.4 148.7 172.4 199.5 209.9 217.1 223.7 229.7 235.0 237.7 242.4 248.6 269.0 287.6 304.6 319.6 335.8 349.7 365.3 379.2 390.0 184.3 194.4 199.3 198.7 202.9 232.1 241.1 244.0 241.1 229.8 154.5 172.3 196.5 219.6 240.1 257.5 197.1 217.4 230.9 249.4 269.4 295.4 253.6 269.6 312.5 334.4 332.8 350.9 409.4 433.0 456.0 474.7 495.5 519.7 r 222.9 r 239.8 206.2 r 170.9 153.1 160.2 177.9 r 243.3 79.0 82.2 87.6 93.3 109.0 105.4 160.5 169.1 54.0 58.4 110.7 120.8 r 1,324.3 r 1,381.6 1,409.5 1,461.9 1,515.8 1,560.5 r 1,601.2 1,652.6 1,701.9 r 1,789.1 294.5 281.2 r 1,863.0 r 304.9 r 290.3 2,011.0 2,159.9 2,292.2 2,479.4 348.6 404.9 455.9 465.9 332.0 387.3 436.5 443.9 17.2 16.5 22.4 21.2 26.9 32.0 757.5 798.7 149.8 156.3 143.6 149.4 7.0 13.3 1 Cumulative data for fiscal 2004 and 2005 for Department of Defense, military include a small amount classified as international affairs, and not included in national defense. 2 Data from current issue Monthly Treasury Statement. r 158.4 202.6 r 223.6 172.2 158.0 171.7 160.3 167.3 r 157.4 188.8 218.1 273.2 302.6 311.3 380.1 NOTE.—Data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2006, issued February 7, 2005. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the fourth quarter of 2004, according to advance estimates, Federal current expenditures rose $49.9 billion (annual rate); receipts data are incomplete. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Government current receipts Current tax receipts Period Total1 Personal current taxes Total Taxes on production and imports Taxes on corporate income Contributions for government social insurance Federal Government current expenditures Income receipts on assets Current transfer receipts Current surplus of government enterprises Total 2 Consumption expenditures Current transfer payments Interest payments Subsidies Net Federal Government saving Calendar year: 1995 ................ 1996 ................ 1997 ................ 1998 ................ 1999 ................ 2000 ................ 2001 ................ 2002 ................ 2003 ................ 2004 p ............... 2001: I ............... II ............. III ............ IV ............ 2002: I ............... II ............. III ............ IV ............ 2003: I ............... II ............. III ............ IV ............ 1,406.5 1,524.0 1,653.1 1,773.8 1,891.2 2,053.8 2,016.2 1,847.3 1,877.0 .............. 2,089.2 2,080.5 1,895.4 1,999.6 1,844.6 1,850.5 1,847.9 1,846.2 1,888.6 1,902.5 1,816.4 1,900.6 845.1 932.4 1,030.6 1,116.8 1,195.7 1,313.6 1,252.2 1,069.0 1,064.5 .............. 1,323.0 1,315.6 1,132.0 1,238.1 1,070.4 1,074.1 1,066.6 1,064.8 1,089.7 1,094.2 999.3 1,074.9 586.0 663.4 744.3 825.8 893.0 999.1 994.5 831.2 775.8 788.4 1,047.3 1,045.7 881.0 1,004.1 846.9 835.6 824.4 817.7 809.6 811.6 709.2 772.5 75.9 73.2 78.2 81.1 83.9 87.8 85.8 87.3 89.4 89.7 87.6 86.9 84.2 84.6 85.1 87.8 88.2 88.0 90.3 89.6 88.0 89.6 179.3 190.6 203.0 204.2 213.0 219.4 164.7 143.4 191.4 .............. 180.7 176.6 159.7 141.6 131.4 143.2 146.9 152.2 183.1 183.1 194.3 204.9 519.2 542.8 576.4 613.8 651.6 691.7 717.5 733.8 758.2 801.8 716.4 718.1 717.9 717.6 731.3 734.6 734.3 734.9 747.7 754.0 761.6 769.5 23.7 26.9 25.9 21.5 21.5 25.2 24.9 20.3 23.0 22.8 26.4 25.2 24.4 23.5 21.3 20.2 19.9 19.8 19.4 22.8 24.3 25.5 19.1 23.1 19.9 21.5 22.7 25.7 27.1 24.8 25.5 26.3 27.2 27.3 27.1 26.6 25.4 24.9 24.7 24.3 25.1 25.4 25.8 25.6 ¥0.6 ¥1.2 .3 .1 ¥.3 ¥2.3 ¥5.5 ¥.6 5.8 4.1 ¥3.8 ¥5.7 ¥6.1 ¥6.2 ¥3.7 ¥3.3 2.4 2.3 6.6 6.0 5.5 5.0 1,603.5 1,665.8 1,708.9 1,734.9 1,787.6 1,864.4 1,969.5 2,101.8 2,241.6 2,341.7 1,932.6 1,956.9 1,984.0 2,004.3 2,053.1 2,102.1 2,103.1 2,148.8 2,170.2 2,266.9 2,249.4 2,279.8 440.5 446.3 457.7 454.6 475.1 499.3 531.9 592.7 658.6 704.8 518.4 528.0 532.7 548.4 570.7 586.3 593.4 620.3 634.3 665.7 663.0 671.3 839.0 888.3 918.8 946.5 986.1 1,038.1 1,131.4 1,243.0 1,322.5 1,378.0 1,095.4 1,121.2 1,135.5 1,173.4 1,216.9 1,243.2 1,246.9 1,264.8 1,280.8 1,327.5 1,331.1 1,350.6 290.4 297.3 300.0 298.8 282.7 283.3 258.6 229.0 214.1 219.7 274.5 263.7 253.3 242.8 228.5 236.5 226.2 224.7 213.9 217.7 210.1 214.7 33.7 34.0 32.4 35.0 43.8 43.8 47.6 37.2 46.4 39.2 44.3 44.0 62.5 39.7 37.0 36.1 36.6 39.0 42.5 54.6 45.3 43.2 ¥197.0 ¥141.8 ¥55.8 38.8 103.6 189.5 46.7 ¥254.5 ¥364.5 .................... 156.6 123.6 ¥88.6 ¥4.7 ¥208.5 ¥251.6 ¥255.1 ¥302.7 ¥281.6 ¥364.4 ¥433.0 ¥379.2 2004: I ............... II ............. III ............ IV p ........... 1,915.3 1,949.1 1,956.7 .............. 1,073.9 1,098.5 1,096.7 .............. 768.3 781.5 794.3 809.5 89.0 89.3 89.2 91.4 207.9 219.5 204.9 .............. 787.9 797.6 806.2 815.3 22.9 22.2 22.9 23.2 26.1 26.2 26.6 26.5 4.6 4.5 4.3 3.1 2,306.3 2,329.1 2,340.8 2,390.7 691.1 700.3 713.0 714.7 1,365.9 1,367.9 1,368.8 1,409.5 211.1 220.7 220.0 227.0 39.7 38.7 39.0 39.5 ¥391.0 ¥380.0 ¥384.1 .................... 1 Includes 2 Includes 34 taxes from the rest of the world, not shown separately. a subtraction for wage accruals less disbursements, not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Industrial production (1997=100; seasonally adjusted) Period United States Canada Japan France Germany Italy Consumer prices (1982–84=100; NSA) United Kingdom United States 1 Canada Japan Germany France 1995 .................................... 89.4 93.5 94.4 96.1 96.8 98.0 97.3 152.4 151.4 119.2 148.4 r 96.0 1996 .................................... 93.2 94.7 96.6 97.0 96.3 98.7 156.9 153.8 119.3 151.4 1997 .................................... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 160.5 156.3 121.5 153.2 r 103.7 1998 .................................... 105.8 103.5 93.5 r 103.5 101.2 101.0 163.0 157.8 122.2 154.2 r 109.6 r 101.2 1999 .................................... 110.6 93.8 r 106.1 104.9 102.3 166.6 160.5 121.8 155.0 r 2000 .................................... 115.4 119.0 99.0 110.1 110.7 105.3 104.2 172.2 164.9 121.0 157.6 r 114.4 r 104.2 2001 ..................................... 111.3 92.7 111.3 111.0 102.6 177.1 169.1 120.1 160.2 r 116.1 r 102.6 2002 .................................... 111.0 91.7 r 109.6 109.9 100.0 179.9 172.9 119.0 163.3 r 117.0 r 102.0 r 99.8 2003 .................................... 110.9 94.5 r 109.5 110.3 184.0 177.7 118.7 166.7 p 2004 ................................... 115.5 .............. 99.6 ............ .............. .............. .............. 188.9 181.0 118.7 170.3 2003: Nov r ......................... 112.7 118.4 98.0 110.0 112.5 102.9 99.9 184.5 178.3 118.3 167.9 r Dec ......................... 112.9 119.3 97.5 110.4 112.0 102.9 99.9 184.3 178.4 118.4 168.1 2004: Jan r ......................... 113.2 118.7 100.4 109.8 112.6 102.4 99.9 185.2 178.5 118.2 168.1 r Feb ......................... 114.4 118.1 96.6 111.0 112.2 102.6 99.5 186.2 179.0 118.2 168.8 r Mar ......................... 114.1 119.8 97.2 111.6 111.8 102.4 99.9 187.4 179.6 118.4 169.5 Apr r ......................... 114.7 119.8 100.2 111.0 113.5 102.9 100.7 188.0 180.0 118.4 169.9 May r ........................ 115.5 120.2 101.3 111.6 114.5 102.9 101.0 189.1 181.6 118.5 170.5 June r ....................... 115.1 121.4 100.0 112.3 113.4 102.2 100.8 189.7 181.7 118.8 170.5 r July ........................ 115.9 121.6 100.3 111.9 114.6 102.5 100.4 189.4 181.6 118.4 170.2 Aug r ......................... 116.0 122.8 100.1 109.6 113.8 101.9 99.3 189.5 181.3 118.5 170.7 Sept r ........................ 115.7 122.6 99.8 113.1 113.8 102.1 99.0 189.9 181.5 118.9 170.9 Oct r .......................... 116.6 122.6 98.6 112.2 114.3 101.8 98.8 190.9 181.9 119.5 171.3 Nov r ......................... 116.8 122.9 100.0 112.3 112.6 101.1 99.0 191.0 182.6 119.3 171.3 Dec p ......................... 117.8 .............. 98.8 ............ .............. .............. .............. 190.3 182.2 118.7 171.5 2005: Jan p ......................... .............. .............. ............ ............ .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ............ ............ 1 Data relate to all urban consumers. NOTE.—See Note, p. 17, for information on U.S. industrial production series. Includes data available as of February 3, 2005. United Kingdom Italy 133.3 205.6 175.2 135.3 213.8 179.4 137.8 218.2 185.1 139.1 222.5 191.4 140.0 226.2 194.3 142.0 231.9 200.1 144.8 238.3 203.6 146.7 244.3 207.0 148.3 250.8 213.0 150.8 256.3 219.4 148.1 252.9 214.7 149.2 253.1 215.6 149.3 253.5 215.1 149.6 254.1 216.0 150.0 255.0 216.9 150.5 255.6 218.2 150.8 256.2 219.1 150.8 256.6 219.5 151.2 256.8 219.5 151.5 257.4 220.2 151.0 257.4 221.0 151.3 257.4 221.6 150.8 257.6 222.1 152.3 258.3 223.1 151.7 ............ .............. Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Trade Administration, Office of Trade and Industry Information). U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES [Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Goods: Exports (f.a.s. value) Goods: Imports (customs value) Census basis (by end-use category) Services (BOP basis) Balance of trade (exports minus imports) Census basis (by end-use category) BOP basis Period BOP basis Total, Census basis 1 Auto- ConIndusmo- sumer Foods, trial Capital tive goods feeds, supgoods vehi- (nonand plies except cles, food) bevand auto- parts except erages mate- motive and autorials enmogines tive 1995 ............. 1996 ............. 1997 ............. 1998 ............. 1999 ............. 2000 ............. 2001 ............. 2002 ............. 2003 ............. 2004 p ........... 575.2 612.1 678.4 670.4 684.0 772.0 718.7 681.8 713.1 807.6 584.7 625.1 689.2 682.1 695.8 781.9 729.1 693.1 724.8 819.0 50.5 55.5 51.5 46.4 46.0 47.9 49.4 49.6 55.0 56.3 146.2 147.7 158.2 148.3 147.5 172.6 160.1 156.8 173.0 203.6 233.0 253.0 294.5 299.4 310.8 356.9 321.7 290.4 293.6 331.1 2003: Dec ... 2004: Jan r .. Feb r .. Mar r Apr r .. May r June r July r Aug r .. Sept r Oct r .. Nov ... Dec p .. 62.6 61.8 65.1 67.4 66.1 68.8 64.8 67.6 68.1 69.3 69.3 68.1 71.1 63.4 62.8 66.0 68.6 67.0 69.8 65.8 68.4 69.0 70.3 70.3 69.0 72.0 4.9 4.6 4.7 4.9 4.7 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 15.1 15.2 16.0 16.7 16.4 17.4 16.1 17.3 17.0 17.5 18.0 17.6 18.4 26.0 25.9 27.3 27.8 27.1 28.8 26.4 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.1 27.2 28.7 61.8 64.4 65.0 70.1 74.0 77.4 72.4 80.3 75.3 80.9 80.4 89.4 75.4 88.3 78.9 84.4 80.7 89.9 88.2 102.8 6.9 6.7 7.0 7.2 7.1 7.2 7.0 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.8 7.8 7.7 8.2 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.3 8.6 8.8 8.8 8.8 9.4 BOP basis IndusAutoFoods, trial Capital motive Total, feeds, supgoods vehiCensus and plies except cles, basis 1 bevand auto- parts erages mate- motive and enrials gines Consumer goods (nonfood) except automotive Exports Imports Goods, Census basis Goods Services Goods and services 749.4 803.1 876.5 917.1 1,030.0 1,224.4 1,145.9 1,164.7 1,260.7 1,473.8 743.5 795.3 869.7 911.9 1,024.6 1,218.0 1,141.0 1,161.4 1,257.1 1,470.5 33.2 35.7 39.7 41.2 43.6 46.0 46.6 49.7 55.8 62.2 181.8 204.5 213.8 200.1 221.4 299.0 273.9 267.7 313.8 412.4 221.4 228.1 253.3 269.5 295.7 347.0 298.0 283.3 295.8 343.8 123.8 128.9 139.8 148.7 179.0 195.9 189.8 203.7 210.2 228.4 159.9 172.0 193.8 217.0 241.9 281.8 284.3 307.8 333.9 373.2 219.2 239.5 256.3 263.1 282.5 299.0 287.9 294.1 307.4 338.6 141.3 152.4 166.3 181.3 199.7 224.9 223.4 232.9 256.3 290.1 ¥158.8 ¥170.2 ¥180.5 ¥229.8 ¥328.8 ¥436.1 ¥411.9 ¥468.3 ¥532.4 ¥651.5 ¥174.2 ¥191.0 ¥198.1 ¥246.7 ¥346.0 ¥452.4 ¥427.2 ¥482.9 ¥547.6 ¥666.2 77.9 87.1 89.9 81.8 82.8 74.1 64.5 61.2 51.0 48.5 ¥96.3 ¥103.9 ¥108.2 ¥164.9 ¥263.3 ¥378.3 ¥362.7 ¥421.7 ¥496.5 ¥617.7 111.1 111.5 114.9 118.9 119.2 120.4 124.0 122.5 125.2 124.4 129.5 131.6 131.7 110.9 111.3 114.7 118.6 118.9 120.1 123.8 122.2 124.9 124.1 129.2 131.3 131.4 4.9 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 28.1 28.2 31.2 31.8 30.8 31.9 35.0 33.9 36.6 35.5 38.4 40.0 39.1 26.7 26.8 26.4 27.3 27.9 28.1 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.6 29.9 29.7 30.3 18.3 17.8 18.8 19.0 19.0 19.4 18.7 19.1 19.2 19.5 19.4 19.0 19.3 28.9 29.5 29.0 31.3 31.8 31.2 31.1 30.6 30.5 30.4 32.1 32.8 32.8 27.5 26.9 27.3 27.9 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.2 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.1 22.9 23.1 23.3 23.6 23.8 24.0 24.5 24.2 25.1 24.3 24.5 24.8 24.9 ¥47.5 ¥48.5 ¥48.7 ¥50.0 ¥51.9 ¥50.4 ¥57.9 ¥53.8 ¥56.0 ¥53.8 ¥59.0 ¥62.3 ¥59.4 ¥48.5 ¥49.7 ¥49.9 ¥51.5 ¥53.1 ¥51.6 ¥59.2 ¥54.9 ¥57.1 ¥55.1 ¥60.2 ¥63.5 ¥60.6 4.5 3.8 4.0 4.4 4.6 4.2 3.8 4.2 3.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 ¥44.0 ¥45.9 ¥45.9 ¥47.1 ¥48.5 ¥47.4 ¥55.4 ¥50.7 ¥54.0 ¥51.0 ¥56.1 ¥59.3 ¥56.4 1 Total includes ‘‘other’’ exports or imports, not shown separately. NOTE.—BOP refers to balance of payments on international transactions basis. BOP data shown here are consistent with figures shown on pp. 36 and 37. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis). 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the third quarter of 2004, the goods deficit rose to $166.7 billion, from $163.6 billion in the second quarter. The current account deficit rose to $164.7 billion in the third quarter from $164.4 billion in the second quarter. [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits (¥)] Goods 1 Period Exports Imports Services Balance on goods Net military transactions 2 ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. 502,859 575,204 612,113 678,366 670,416 683,965 771,994 718,712 681,833 713,122 ¥668,690 ¥749,374 ¥803,113 ¥876,470 ¥917,103 ¥1,029,980 ¥1,224,408 ¥1,145,900 ¥1,164,728 ¥1,260,674 ¥165,831 ¥174,170 ¥191,000 ¥198,104 ¥246,687 ¥346,015 ¥452,414 ¥427,188 ¥482,895 ¥547,552 2002: I ........ II ....... III ..... IV ..... 165,123 172,034 174,371 170,305 ¥273,520 ¥291,395 ¥296,778 ¥303,035 ¥108,397 ¥119,361 ¥122,407 ¥132,730 ¥1,574 ¥1,882 ¥1,537 ¥2,165 2003: I ........ II ....... III ..... IV ..... 173,459 174,554 178,251 186,858 ¥311,402 ¥310,087 ¥312,886 ¥326,299 ¥137,943 ¥135,533 ¥134,635 ¥139,441 2004: I ........ II ....... III p .... 193,920 199,315 204,610 ¥344,688 ¥362,895 ¥371,341 ¥150,768 ¥163,580 ¥166,731 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Net travel and transportation Other services, net Receipts Payments Balance on income Unilateral current transfers, net 3 Balance on current account ¥98,379 ¥96,265 ¥103,942 ¥108,178 ¥164,868 ¥263,252 ¥378,344 ¥362,692 ¥421,735 ¥496,508 166,521 210,244 226,129 256,804 261,308 293,222 350,449 286,692 266,799 294,385 ¥149,375 ¥189,353 ¥203,811 ¥244,195 ¥257,554 ¥280,037 ¥329,864 ¥263,120 ¥259,626 ¥261,106 17,146 20,891 22,318 12,609 3,754 13,185 20,585 23,572 7,173 33,279 ¥36,799 ¥34,104 ¥38,583 ¥40,410 ¥48,443 ¥46,755 ¥55,684 ¥46,581 ¥59,382 ¥67,439 ¥118,032 ¥109,478 ¥120,207 ¥135,979 ¥209,557 ¥296,822 ¥413,443 ¥385,701 ¥473,944 ¥530,668 ¥802 ¥1,073 ¥901 ¥675 17,014 ¥93,759 18,943 ¥103,373 17,929 ¥106,916 17,882 ¥117,688 63,455 67,306 69,542 66,496 ¥62,490 ¥68,260 ¥68,199 ¥60,677 965 ¥954 1,343 5,819 ¥17,411 ¥13,562 ¥13,427 ¥14,980 ¥110,205 ¥117,889 ¥119,000 ¥126,849 ¥2,905 ¥3,215 ¥3,047 ¥3,459 ¥2,745 ¥3,183 ¥3,088 ¥1,287 18,207 18,551 18,520 18,693 ¥125,386 ¥123,380 ¥122,250 ¥125,494 67,677 68,893 73,785 84,030 ¥63,682 ¥63,019 ¥66,524 ¥67,879 3,995 5,874 7,261 16,151 ¥16,815 ¥16,369 ¥16,639 ¥17,617 ¥138,206 ¥133,875 ¥131,628 ¥126,960 ¥3,534 ¥3,475 ¥3,832 ¥2,668 ¥2,543 ¥2,922 18,368 ¥138,602 18,514 ¥151,084 18,143 ¥155,342 83,528 88,419 92,879 ¥71,364 ¥83,382 ¥87,598 12,164 5,037 5,281 ¥20,726 ¥18,344 ¥14,648 ¥147,164 ¥164,391 ¥164,709 2,570 16,305 4,600 21,772 5,385 25,015 4,968 22,152 5,220 10,210 2,593 7,085 317 2,486 ¥2,296 ¥3,254 ¥7,158 ¥3,451 ¥12,626 ¥10,303 1 Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage; excludes military. 2 Transfers under U.S. military agency sales contracts (exports) minus direct defense expenditures (imports). 36 Income receipts and payments Balance on goods and services 48,577 51,533 56,658 62,806 66,389 73,085 71,267 70,046 71,769 73,973 3 Includes transfers of goods and services under U.S. military grant programs. See p. 37 for continuation of table. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the financial account, U.S. claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $60.3 billion in the third quarter of 2004, following an increase of $37.0 billion in the second quarter. U.S. liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $46.6 billion in the third quarter, following an increase of $41.2 billion in the second quarter. [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits (¥)] Financial account Period Capital account transactions, net U.S.-owned assets abroad, net [increase/financial outflow (¥)] Total U.S. official reserve assets 4 Other U.S. Government assets Statistical discrepancy Foreign-owned assets in the U.S., net [increase/financial inflow (+)] U.S. private assets Total Foreign official assets Other foreign assets Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy U.S. official reserve assets, net 4 (unadjusted, end of period) .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. .................................. ¥1,723 ¥927 ¥654 ¥1,044 ¥740 ¥4,843 ¥809 ¥1,083 ¥1,260 ¥3,079 ¥178,937 ¥352,264 ¥413,409 ¥485,475 ¥347,829 ¥503,640 ¥569,798 ¥366,768 ¥198,014 ¥283,414 5,346 ¥9,742 6,668 ¥1,010 ¥6,783 8,747 ¥290 ¥4,911 ¥3,681 1,523 ¥390 ¥984 ¥989 68 ¥422 2,750 ¥941 ¥486 345 537 ¥183,893 ¥341,538 ¥419,088 ¥484,533 ¥340,624 ¥515,137 ¥568,567 ¥361,371 ¥194,678 ¥285,474 305,989 438,562 551,096 706,809 423,569 740,210 1,046,896 782,859 768,246 829,173 39,583 109,880 126,724 19,036 ¥19,903 43,543 42,758 28,059 113,990 248,573 266,406 328,682 424,372 687,773 443,472 696,667 1,004,138 754,800 654,256 580,600 ¥7,297 24,107 ¥16,826 ¥84,311 134,557 65,095 ¥62,846 ¥29,307 ¥95,028 ¥12,012 .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. 74,335 85,832 75,089 69,954 81,761 71,516 67,647 68,654 79,006 85,938 2002: I ............................. II ............................ III .......................... IV ........................... 2003: I ............................. II ............................ III .......................... IV ........................... 2004: I ............................. II ............................ III p ......................... ¥281 ¥271 ¥361 ¥347 ¥406 ¥1,552 ¥821 ¥300 ¥396 ¥324 ¥374 ¥34,144 ¥133,373 21,574 ¥52,069 ¥102,665 ¥110,962 ¥8,138 ¥61,647 ¥306,729 ¥105,810 ¥133,176 390 ¥1,843 ¥1,416 ¥812 83 ¥170 ¥611 2,221 557 1,122 429 133 42 ¥27 197 53 310 483 ¥309 727 ¥2 183 ¥34,667 ¥131,572 23,017 ¥51,454 ¥102,801 ¥111,102 ¥8,010 ¥63,559 ¥308,013 ¥106,930 ¥133,788 165,989 229,135 150,075 223,047 246,105 218,553 134,202 230,311 445,348 270,745 286,412 12,801 53,312 17,720 30,157 48,986 65,245 50,663 83,679 127,864 73,349 60,118 153,188 175,823 132,355 192,890 197,119 153,308 83,539 146,632 317,484 197,396 226,294 ¥21,359 22,398 ¥52,288 ¥43,782 ¥4,828 27,836 6,385 ¥41,404 8,941 ¥220 11,847 10,292 ¥1,206 ¥14,052 4,963 11,091 ¥3,121 ¥13,418 5,449 11,839 ¥5,558 ¥15,068 67,574 74,696 75,860 79,006 80,049 81,660 84,431 85,938 85,192 82,652 82,578 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 4 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDRs), foreign currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents Page TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Gross Domestic Product .......................................................................................................................................................................................... Real Gross Domestic Product .................................................................................................................................................................................. Implicit Price Deflators for Gross Domestic Product .............................................................................................................................................. Gross Domestic Product and Related Price Measures: Indexes and Percent Changes .............................................................................................. Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Gross Value Added and Price, Costs, and Profits ............................................................................................. National Income ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... Real Personal Consumption Expenditures ............................................................................................................................................................... Sources of Personal Income ...................................................................................................................................................................................... Disposition of Personal Income ............................................................................................................................................................................... Farm Income ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ Corporate Profits ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... Real Gross Private Domestic Investment ................................................................................................................................................................ Real Private Fixed Investment by Type .................................................................................................................................................................. Business Investment ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force ......................................................................................................................................................................................... Selected Unemployment Rates ................................................................................................................................................................................ Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs ...................................................................................................... Nonagricultural Employment .................................................................................................................................................................................. Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries ................................................................. Employment Cost Index—Private Industry ............................................................................................................................................................. Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector ...................................................................................................................................................... 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization ....................................................................................................................................................... Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures .............................................................................................................. New Construction .................................................................................................................................................................................................... New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates ............................................................................................................................................................... Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade ..................................................................................................................................... Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders ................................................................................................................................................. 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers ................................................................................................................................................................ Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods ...................................................................................................................................................... Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers ............................................................................................................................................. Prices Received and Paid by Farmers ...................................................................................................................................................................... 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock and Debt Measures ............................................................................................................................................................................. Components of Money Stock ................................................................................................................................................................................... Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base ................................................................................................................................................................... Bank Credit at All Commercial Banks .................................................................................................................................................................... Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business .................................................................................................................. Consumer Credit ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... Interest Rates and Bond Yields ............................................................................................................................................................................... Common Stock Prices and Yields ............................................................................................................................................................................ 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt ....................................................................................................................................................................... Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function .............................................................................................................................................. Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis ..................................................................................................................................................... 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries ............................................................................................................... U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services ...................................................................................................................................................... U.S. International Transactions ................................................................................................................................................................................ 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: p Preliminary. r Revised. c Corrected. … Not available (also, not applicable). NSA not seasonally adjusted. 38 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Price $3.00 (single copy) ($3.75 foreign). Subscription price: $33.00 per year; $41.25 for foreign mailing. U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 2005 98–633
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