Full text of Economic Indicators : January 1989
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101st Congress, 1st Session
Economic Indicators
JANUARY
1989
(Includes data available as of January 31, 1989)
Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the
Council of Economic Advisers
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1989
JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Chairman—Designate
PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland, Vice Chairman—Designate
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
MICHAEL J. BOSKIN, Chairman—Designate
THOMAS G. MOORE, Member
[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sr CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the
Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that
a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant
at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two
copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the
Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for
distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies
printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.
Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.25 a single copy
($2.81 foreign), or by subscription at $24.00 per year ($30.00 for foreign
mailing) from:
SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS
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WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
In the fourth quarter of 1988, according to advance estimates, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 6.8
percent (annual rate) or $80.9 billion. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 2.0 percent and the
implicit price deflator rose 4.7 percent.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS Of DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
5,200
5,200
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
4,8001
4,800
4400
4,400
GNP
- IN CURRENT DOLLARS .
4,000!
4,000
3,600
3,600
GNP
IN 1982 DOLLARS
3,200
3,200
2,800
2,800
2,400
2,400
2..000|I
I
I
I
I
1980
1981
I
I
1983
1982
I
1984
2,000
1986
1985
1987
SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
1988
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
Gross
national
product
Personal
consumption
tures
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 "
19821983:
1984:
1985:
1986:
IV
IV
IV
IV
IV
1987- I
II
III
IV
1988: I
II
Ill
IV
1
Gross
private
domestic
investment
Federal
Net
exports
Exports
Imports
Total
Total
National
defense
Nondefense
State
and
local
Final
sales
Gross
domestic
purchases l
2,732.0
3,052.6
3,166.0
3,405.7
3,772.2
4,014.9
4,240.3
4,526.7
4,861.8
1,732.6
1,915.1
2,050.7
2,234.5
2,430.5
2,629.0
2,807.5
3,012.1
3,226.0
437.0
515.5
447.3
502.3
664.8
643.1
665.9
712.9
765.5
32.1
33.9
26.3
-6.1
-58.9
-78.0
-104.4
-123.0
-93.2
351.0
382.8
361.9
352.5
383.5
370.9
378.4
428.0
518.7
318.9
348.9
335.6
358.7
442.4
448.9
482.8
551.1
611.9
530.3
588.1
641.7
675.0
735.9
820.8
871.2
924.7
963.6
208.1
242.2
272.7
283.5
310.5
355.2
366.2
382.0
380.2
142.7
167.5
193.8
214.4
234.3
259.1
277.5
295.3
297.5
65.4
74.8
78.9
69.1
76.2
96.0
88.7
86.7
82.7
322.2
345.9
369.0
391.5
425.3
465.6
505.0
542.8
583.4
2,740.3
3,028.6
3,190.5
3,412.8
3,704.5
4,003.6
4,224.7
4,487.5
4,813.7
2,699.8
3,018.7
3,139.7
3,411.8
3,831.1
4,092.8
4,344.7
4,649.7
4,955.0
3,212.5
3,545.8
3,851.8
4,107.9
4,304.6
2,117.0
2,315.8
2,493.4
2,700.4
2,876.0
409.6
579.8
661.8
654.1
656.4
14.1
-25.8
-67.9
-103.2
-114.3
335.9
364.7
385.7
369.2
385.2
321.9
390.5
453.6
472.4
499.4
671.8
676.1
764.5
856.7
886.5
293.2
276.1
326.0
376.6
366.7
205.4
221.5
244.1
268.6
278.1
87.7
54.6
81.9
108.0
88.7
378.7
400.0
438.5
480.1
519.7
3,272.4
3,514.8
3,806.8
4,100.7
4,306.6
3,198.5
3,571.6
3,919.7
4,211.2
4,418.9
4,391.8
4,484.2
4,568.0
4,662.8
2,921.7
2,992.2
3,058.2
3,076.3
685.5
698.5
702.8
764.9
-119.1
-122.2
-125.2
-125.7
395.3
416.8
440.4
459.7
514.4
539.0
565.6
585.4
903.8
915.7
932.2
947.3
372.7
377.5
386.3
391.4
287.3
294.8
299.8
299.2
85.4
82.6
86.4
92.2
531.1
538.2
546.0
555.9
4,354.1
4,451.5
4,553.5
4,590.7
4,510.9
4,606.3
4,693.2
4,788.4
4,724.5
4,823.8
4,909.0
4,989.9
3,128.1
3,194.6
3,261.2
3,320.1
763.4
758.1
772.5
767.9
-112.1
-90.4
-80.0
-90.3
487.8
507.1
536.1
543.8
599.9
597.5
616.0
634.1
945.2
961.6
955.3
992.2
377.7
382.2
367.7
393.2
298.4
298.8
294.3
298.4
79.3
83.4
73.4
94.9
567.5
579.4
587.6
599.0
4,659.2
4,780.1
4,859.3
4,956.3
4,836.6
4,914.2
4,989.0
5,080.2
GNP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services.
Government purchases of
goods and services
Exports and imports of goods
and services
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic An
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS
[Billions of 1982 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
Gross
national
product
Nonresidential
fixed
Residential
fixed
Government purchases of
goods and services
Exports and imports of
goods and services
Gross private
domestic investment
Personal
consumption
expenditures
Change
in
business
inventories
Federal
Net
exports
Exports
Imports
Total
Total
National
defense
Nondefense
State
and
local
Final
sales
Gross
domestic
purchases 1
1980
1981....
1982
1983 . .
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 *
3,187.1
3,248.8
3,166.0
3,279.1
3,501.4
3,618.7
3,721.7
3,847.0
3,995.0
2,000.4
2,024.2
2,050.7
2,146.0
2,249.3
2,354.8
2,455.2
2,521.0
2,591.1
379.2
395.2
366.7
361.2
425.2
453.5
433.1
445.1
487.2
137.0
126.5
105.1
149.3
170.9
174.4
195.0
195.2
192.1
-6.9
57.0
23.9
49.4
-24.5
26.3
-6.4
-19.9
62.3
-84.0
9.1 - 104.3
15.4 -137.5
34.4 -128.9
-99.1
42.5
388.9
392.7
361.9
348.1
371.8
367.2
318.4
427.8
503.7
332.0
343.4
335.6
368.1
455.8
471.4
515.9
556.7
602.8
620.5
629.7
641.7
649.0
677.7
731.2
760.5
780.2
781.2
246.9
259.6
272.7
275.1
290.8
326.0
333.4
339.0
328.1
171.2
180.3
193.8
206.9
218.5
237.2
251.4
264.9
261.0
75.7
79.3
78.9
68.2
72.3
88.8
82.0
74.1
67.1
373.6
370.1
369.0
373.9
387.0
405.2
427.1
441.2
453.1
3,194.0
3,225.0
3,190.5
3,285.5
3,439.1
3,609.6
3,706.3
3,812.6
3,952.5
3,130.1
3,199.4
3,139.7
3,299.1
3,585.4
3,723.0
3,859.3
3,975.9
4,094.1
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
1986:
IV
IV
IV
IV
IV
3,159.3
3,365.1
3,535.2
3,662.4
3,734.7
2,078.7
2,191.9
2,281.1
2,386.9
2,486.2
352.3
390.4
444.4
460.9
427.3
115.8
159.9
169.6
179.4
199.7
-59.3
27.0
41.7
7.7
-10.5
11.7
-46.2
-94.8
-125.3
-142.4
336.0
355.5
376.6
367.4
387.8
324.3
401.6
471 .4
492.6
530.2
660.1
642.2
693.2
752.7
774.5
289.5
266.0
300.5
340.6
340.5
201.4
211.6
225.3
241.4
253.1
88.2
54.4
75.2
99.2
87.4
370.6
376.2
392.7
412.1
434.0
3,218.6
3,338.1
3,493.5
3,654.7
3,745.2
3,147.6
3,411.3
3,630.0
3,787.6
3,877.2
1987- I
II
3,776.7
3,823.0
3,865.3
3,923.0
2,490.2
2,516.6
2,545.2
2,531.7
418.2
434.8
462.8
464.8
198.4
197.6
192.1
192.7
29.8
27.8
13.0
67.1
-132.8
-126.0
- 130.7
-126.0
394.9
416.4
440.9
459.2
527.7
542.3
571.6
585.2
772.9
772.2
782.9
792.6
334.0
332.1
342.1
347.7
257.0
264.8
269.5
268.2
77.0
67.3
72.6
79.5
438.9
440.1
440.8
444.9
3,746.9
3,795.2
3,852.2
3,855.9
3,909.5
3,949.0
3,996.0
4,049.0
3,956.1
3,985.2
4,009.4
4,029.2
2,559.8
2,579.0
2,603.8
2,621.9
473.4
490.2
495.0
490.4
189.5
189.6
191.6
197.4
66.0
35.3
39.5
29.2
-109.0
-92.6
-93.9
— 100.7
486.2
496.9
514.0
517.6
595.1
589.5
607.9
618.3
776.4
783.8
773.5
790.9
327.8
331.6
320.1
332.9
264.6
263.6
256.4
259.5
63.2
67.9
63.7
73.5
448.7
452.2
453.4
458.0
3,890.1
3,949.9
3,969.9
4,000.0
4,065.1
4,077.9
4,103.4
4,129.9
m
IV
1988:
I
II
m
IV
1
GNP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
[1982—100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]
Gross private
domestic investment
Personal consumption
expenditures
Period
Gross
national
product
Total
Durable
goods
ble goods
Services
Nonresidential
fixed
Exports and imports of
goods and services
Government purchases of goods and
services
Federal
Residential fixed
Exports
Imports
Total
National
defense
Nondefense
State
and local
85.7
94.0
100.0
103.9
107.7
110.9
113.9
117.7
121.7
86.6
94.6
100.0
104.1
108.1
111.6
114.3
119.5
124.5
89.2
95.7
100.0
102.1
103.8
104.8
105.6
107.9
110.1
89.4
96.9
100.0
102.1
105.0
107.5
107.3
112.1
116.4
83.9
92.6
100.0
106.2
111.6
116.8
122.4
128.5
134.8
85.1
93.4
100.0
98.8
97.9
97.7
100.2
100.4
100.1
89.4
96.6
100.0
102.2
106.0
108.3
111.1
116.2
119.6
90.2
97.5
100.0
101.3
103.2
101.0
100.0
100.0
103.0
96.0
101.6
100.0
97.4
97.1
95.2
93.6
99.0
101.5
84.3
93.3
100.0
103.1
106.8
109.0
109.8
112.7
115.9
83.4
92.9
100.0
103.6
107.2
109.2
110.4
111.5
114.0
86.4
94.3
100.0
101.4
105.5
108.2
108.2
117.0
123.3
86.2
93.4
100.0
104.7
109.9
114.9
118.2
123.0
128.8
IV
IV
IV
IV
IV
101.7
105.4
109.0
112.2
115.3
101.8
105.7
109.3
113.1
115.7
100.7
103.1
104.1
104.7
106.2
101.0
103.1
105.8
108.7
107.8
102.7
108.3
113.5
119.0
124.6
100.7
98.3
97.9
97.9
101.6
99.1
103.1
107.2
109.0
112.4
100.0
102.6
102.4
100.5
99.3
99.3
97.2
96.2
95.9
94.2
101.3
103.8
108.5
110.6
107.7
102.0
104.7
108.3
111.3
109.9
99.5
100.3
108.9
108.8
101.5
102.2
106.3
111.7
116.5
119.7
1987: I
II
Ill
IV
116.3
117.3
118.2
118.9
117.3
118.9
120.2
121.5
106.7
107.5
108.6
108.9
109.8
111.9
112.9
113.7
126.1
127.6
129.1
131.0
101.1
100.8
99.9
99.8
113.4
115.2
117.7
118.7
100.1
100.1
99.9
100.1
97.5
99.4
98.9
100.0
111.6
113.7
112.9
112.6
111.8
111.3
111.3
111.6
110.9
122.9
119.0
116.0
121.0
122.3
123.9
124.9
1988- I
II
119.4
121.0
122.4
123.8
122.2
123.9
125.2
126.6
109.1
109.6
110.4
111.3
113.8
116.0
117.3
118.3
132.2
134.0
135.6
137.3
99.6
99.5
99.7
101.5
119.5
119.5
119.6
119.7
100.3
102.1
104.3
105.1
100.8
101.4
101.3
102.5
115.2
115.3
114.9
118.1
112.8
113.4
114.8
115.0
125.5
122.7
115.2
129.1
126.5
128.1
129.6
130.8
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 '
1982:
19831984:
19851986:
in
IV
'.K, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND
RELATED PRICE MEASURES
[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
On ss national pr
Period
Constant
(19821
dollars
Current
dollars
Implicit
price
deflator
1980
1981
89
11 7
02
90
1.9
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 "
1982- IV
1983- IV
1984- IV
1985- IV
1986- IV
1987- I
II
Ill
IV
1988- I
II
Ill
IV p
37
76
108
64
56
68
74
42
124
47
62
34
25
3.6
68
3.4
28
97
64
39
37
30
27
33
34
36
3.4
38
6
7.3
17
3.0
14
46
5.0
45
6.1
3.4
3.0
25
20
84
8.7
86
5.4
87
73
68
duct
Personal consumption e qjenditures
Chain price
index
3.9
3.3
30
3.3
21
35
3.5
31
2.4
1.7
55
47
47
25
3.4
34
42
4.1
40
3.9
3.1
3.2
4.0
32
3.3
28
2.4
4.0
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.0
106
105
71
90
88
82
68
73
71
10 3
97
72
60
48
65
10.0
91
4.2
4.2
3.7
3.8
2.4
3.5
5.0
53
4.0
4.8
4.7
4.0
Constant
(1982)
dollars
Current
dollars
93
9.3
62
4.1
40
3.4
28
3.6
9.0
9.4
6.3
4.1
4.7
NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter.
Fixedweighted
price index
(1882
weights)
6.9
88
86
74
02
12
13
Implicit
price
deflator
109
10 5
92
57
41
38
32
92
57
42
90
56
42
40
35
27
45
43
48
53
55
43
19
12
6
4.3
46
-2 1
4.5
30
39
28
Fixedweighted
price index
(1982
weights)
10 7
46
47
43
27
28
Chain price
index
24
45
42
39
35
27
45
42
44
43
48
41
30
40
35
56
56
44
31
42
35
55
57
43
48
41
32
43
35
56
57
42
46
44
44
23
57
43
45
2.5
56
2.4
46
47
49
57
47
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS-OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollars) 1
Gross domestic
product of
nonfinancial
corporate business
(billions of dollars)
Period
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988"
198219831984198519861987-
IV
IV
IV
IV
IV
I
n
m
IV
1988- I
II
Ill
1
Current
dollars
1982
dollars
1,540.8
1,738.4
1,782.2
1,914.2
2,146.7
2,267.1
2,371.6
2,513.5
2,706.5
1,779.4
2,012.5
2,201.8
2,309.2
2,409.3
2,438.8
2,482.7
2,546.9
2,585.6
2,633.2
2,684.0
2,732.1
1,807.9
1,837.2
1,782.2
1,866.0
2,036.5
2,117.4
2,177.2
2,270.4
2,387.2
1,760.2
1,940.5
2,069.5
2,137.7
2,199.0
2,215.0
2,248.0
2,296.1
2,322.5
2,363.5
2,380.9
2,395.5
Total
cost
and
profit 2
0.852
.946
1.000
1.026
1.054
1.071
1.089
1.107
1.134
1.011
1.037
1.064
1.080
1.096
1.101
1.104
1.109
1.113
1.114
1.127
1.140
ances
with
capital
consumption
adjustment
0.095
.109
.125
.123
.118
.119
.121
.122
.122
.131
.120
.118
.120
.122
.122
.122
.121
.121
.121
.122
.122
Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1982 dol-
lars.
2
This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with
the decimal point shifted two places to the left.
3
Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies.
Corporate profits with
inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments
Capital
consumption
Indirect
business
taxes 3
0.077
.090
.094
.098
.100
.103
.105
.106
.107
.096
.098
.102
.104
.105
.105
.106
.106
.105
.105
.106
.108
4
Compensation of
employees
Net
interest
0.58J
.632
.676
.679
.687
.704
.719
.732
.753
.685
.680
.694
.713
.725
.730
.730
.729
.738
.736
.747
.758
0.031
.037
.043
.037
.039
.038
.039
.043
.048
.042
.037
.042
.037
.040
.041
.043
.044
.046
.045
.047
.048
Total
0.068
.078
.063
.089
.109
.106
.106
.105
.104
.057
.103
.107
.106
.104
.103
.104
.109
.103
.106
.106
.104
Profits
tax
liability
0.037
.035
.026
.032
.036
.033
.035
.044
.045
.023
.036
.032
.033
.039
.041
.043
.046
.044
.044
.046
.046
Profits
after
tax 4
0.031
.044
.037
.057
.073
.073
.071
.061
.059
.034
.066
.075
.072
.065
.061
.061
.063
.059
.062
.060
.058
Output
per hour
of all
employees
(1982
dollars)
Compensation
per hour
of all
employees
(dollars)
17.096
17.194
17.318
17.865
18.287
18.584
18.927
19.216
9.939
10.861
11.699
12.122
12.569
13.075
13.605
14.062
17.383
18.029
18.359
18.639
19.043
18.996
19.142
19.362
19.357
19.560
19.481
19.428
11.914
12.261
12.746
13.288
13.815
13.869
13.969
14.110
14.291
14.397
14.546
14.739
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor
(Bureau of Labor Statistics).
NATIONAL INCOME
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
National
income
Compensation of
employees1
Proprietors' income
with inventory
valuation and capital
consumption
adjustments
Farm
Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments
Rental
income of
persons
with
capital
consumption
adjustment
Nonfarm
Profits with inventory valuation
adjustment and without capital
consumption adjustment
Total
Total
Profits
before tax
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
Capital
consumption
adjustment
Net
interest
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988"
1982: IV
1983: IV
1984: IV
1985- IV
1986: IV
1987- I
II
UI
IV
2,518.4
2,719.5
3,028.6
3,234.0
3,437.1
3,678.7
3,964.3
2,548.2
2,851.5
3,096.1
3,312.8
3,496.6
3,573.0
3,631.8
3,708.0
3,802.0
1,907.0
2,020.7
2,213.9
2,367.5
2,507.1
2,683.4
2,904.9
1,931.1
2,092.7
2,272.7
2,426.7
2,565.8
2,608.9
2,652.0
2,702.8
2,769.9
24.6
12.4
30.5
30.2
36.4
43.0
36.4
28.5
19.3
28.1
29.2
38.4
46.7
43.0
35.2
47.0
150.9
178.4
204.0
225.6
250.3
270.0
288.3
159.8
188.6
209.7
235.0
255.8
263.5
265.9
271.5
279.0
13.6
13.2
8.5
9.2
12.4
18.4
19.6
15.8
12.4
5.6
7.8
13.4
17.4
17.8
18.1
20.5
150.0
213.7
266.9
282.3
298.9
310.4
323.6
146.1
248.5
266.9
291.4
293.9
298.3
305.2
322.0
316.1
159.2
196.7
234.2
222.6
244.7
258.7
277.8
150.7
223.4
224.6
228.4
244.1
247.5
253.6
269.9
263.7
169.6
207.6
240.0
224.3
236.4
276.7
302.0
164.1
231.5
226.1
235.0
252.1
261.8
273.7
289.4
281.9
-10.4
-10.9
-5.8
-1.7
8.3
-18.0
-24.2
-13.4
-8.1
-1.6
-6.6
-8.1
-14.4
-20.0
-19.5
-18.2
-9.2
17.0
32.7
59.7
54.2
51.7
45.8
-4.5
25.1
42.3
63.0
49.8
50.8
51.5
52.1
52.4
272.3
281.0
304.8
319.0
331.9
353.6
391.5
266.9
290.2
313.1
322.7
329.3
338.3
348.1
358.3
369.5
1988: I
11
3,850.8
3,928.8
4,000.7
2,816.4
2,874.0
2,933.2
2,996.3
44.7
43.4
30.9
26.4
279.2
285.3
290.7
298.2
20.5
19.1
19.7
19.1
316.2
326.5
330.0
266.8
278.5
284.6
286.2
305.9
313.9
-19.4
-27.4
-29.3
— 20.7
49.4
48.0
45.4
40.3
373.9
380.6
396.2
415.1
Ill
IV *
1
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.)
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION
EXPENDITURES
[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Nondurable goods
Durable goods
Total
personal
Period
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 p
19821983:
19841985:
19861987:
IV
IV.
IV
IV
IV
I
II
III.
IV
1988- 1
II. .
Ill
IV '.
sumption
expenditures
Total
durable
goods
2,050.7
2,234.5
9 430 5
2,629.0
2,807.5
3,012.1
3,226.0
2,117.0
2 315 8
2,493.4
2,700.4
2,876.0
2,921.7
2,992.2
3,058.2
3,076.3
252.7
289.1
335.5
372.2
406.5
421.9
449.9
263.8
310.0
346.7
373.2
421.8
403.5
420.5
441.4
422.0
108.9
130.4
157.4
179.1
196.4
195.8
208.0
115.7
144.4
162.3
173.8
201.0
181.7
194.5
212.9
194.0
95.7
107.1
118.8
129.9
140.0
148.3
159.0
99.1
112.4
122.7
134.7
143.3
145.9
147.8
150.2
149.4
3,128.1
3,194.6
3,261.2
3,320.1
437.8
449.8
452.9
459.3
202.2
208.7
210.2
210.9
154.7
159.5
159.5
162.4
: Department of ("ommert't 1 , Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Motor
vehicles
and
parts
Furniture
and
household
equipment
Total
nondurable
goods
Food
48.1
51.6
59.3
63.2
70.1
77.8
82.9
49.0
53.2
61.8
64.7
77.5
75.9
78.3
78.3
78.8
771.0
816.7
867.3
911.2
943.6
997.9
1,047.2
786.6
837.9
879.6
932.7
954.1
977.5
995.3
1,006.6
1,012.4
81.0
81.5
83.2
86.0
1,016.2
1,036.6
1,060.8
1,075.2
Other
Services
Retail sales of
new passenger
cars (millions of
units)
Clothing and
shoes
Gasoline
and oil
398.8
421.9
448.5
471.6
501.0
526.4
551.7
407.0
430.8
456.1
482.5
512.6
521.0
525.3
528.4
530.9
124.4
135.1
146.7
156.4
167.0
178.2
186.3
126.5
141.1
149.8
160.6
169.4
174.5
176.8
180.4
181.2
89.1
90.2
90.0
90.6
73.3
77.0
78.8
89.8
91.9
89.0
91.0
66.3
72.1
77.4
79.3
79.3
158.7
169.5
182.1
192.6
202.2
216.3
230.4
163.4
174.0
184.7
198.5
205.8
209.9
215.8
218.5
220.9
1,027.0
1,128.7
1,227.6
1,345.6
1,457.3
1,592.3
1,728.9
1,066.5
1,167.9
1,267.1
1,394.5
1,500.1
1,540.7
1,576.4
1,610.2
1,641.9
5.8
6.8
8.0
8.2
8.2
7.1
7.5
6.0
7.4
7.7
7.0
7.7
6.7
7.1
8.0
6.6
2.2
2.4
2.4
2.8
3.2
3.2
3.1
2.5
2.6
2.6
3.1
3.4
2.9
3.1
3.5
3.3
535.9
546.3
558.9
565.5
180.5
183.2
188.4
193.0
76.3
78.8
80.5
79.8
223.5
228.2
233.0
236.9
1,674.1
1,708.2
1,747.5
1,785.6
7.6
7.5
7.6
7.5
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.0
Other
Domestics
Imports
SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income rose $37.1 billion (annual rate) in December, following a decline of $8.2 billion in November. The
changes were affected by two special factors—large subsidy payments to farm proprietors in November and
December and bonus payments to employees in the automobile industry in November. Excluding the effect of these
factors, personal income increased $31.3 billion in December and $20.6 billion in November.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
4,200
4,200
3,200
3,200
1,600i
1,600
WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS
800
800
OTHER INCOME
•—Tf
400
400
"TRANSFER
PAYMENTS
illllllllll
Ulllllllll
200
1980
1981
1982
1984
1983
UiiiliiiiLl 200
1985
1986
1987
1988
COUNCIL OF ECONOMiC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Period
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 "
1987- Dec .
1988: Jan
Feb
Mar
Mav
July
Sept
Oct r
Nov r
Dec p
personal
income
2 2584
2,520.9
2 670 8
2 838.6
3,108.7
Wage and
salary
disbursements 1
Proprietor ' income 3
Other labor
ineome l 2
Farm
Nonfann
3 325.3
3 531 1
3 780.0
4,063.2
1 372 0
1 510 3
1 586 1
1 676 6
1,838 6
1 9754
2 094 0
2 248 4
2,437 1
1384
150 3
163 6
173 6
182 9
187 6
196 1
207 9
218 3
20 5
30 7
24 6
12 4
305
30 2
36 4
43 0
364
3 9390
2 353 5
213 3
41 4
156 1
1509
178 4
2040
225 6
250 3
2700
288 3
280 6
3,921.8
3 946 7
3 985.9
4001 0
4021.4
4044 9
4,075.3
4 091 8
4,114.7
4,178.2
4,170.0
4 207 1
2,342.3
2 359 0
2 374 7
2 3940
2 4084
~§ 427 5
2 451 9
2 459 1
2 475 0
2,508.1
2 515 5
2 530 1
214.0
214 6
215 2
215 8
2164
217 4
218 5
219 5
2205
221.5
222 5
223 5
35.9
41 5
56 8
44 8
45 2
40 3
34 1
31 4
27 2
41.5
13 8
23 9
278.6
279 0
279 9
283 3
285 2
287 5
289 4
290 2
292 6
296.4
297 8
3004
160 1
Less:
income of
persons 4
66
13 3
13 6
13 2
dividend
income
52 9
61 3
21 5
63 9
68 7
75 5
78 7
82 8
88 6
96 3
92 4
20.8
20 5
20 2
19 3
18 9
19 0
19 3
19 7
92.8
93 6
94 0
94 7
95 0
95 4
96 3
97 5
200
980
19.5
19 1
18 7
98.9
994
99 8
85
92
12 4
18 4
196
interest
income
271 9
335 4
369 7
393 J
444 7
4780
499 1
527 0
576 3
555 1
554.4
554 1
554 1
558 8
563 7
568 7
574 9
581 8
589 1
597.2
605 4
613 8
payments 5
324 7
368 1
410 6
442 6
4566
489 8
521 1
548 8
5860
557 9
572.2
574 6
582 2
582 8
582 0
583 6
5870
589 2
589 7
594.7
5964
597 7
contributions
for social
insurance
personal
ineome 6
88 6
104 5
112 3
120 1
132 7
149 3
161 1
172 0
195 1
2 215 8
2 465 6
2 618 7
2 799 0
3 052 1
3 271 3
3 472 5
3 7160
4005 9
176 8
189.1
190 2
191 2
192 4
193 4
194 6
196 2
196 5
197 4
199.5
200 0
200 7
3 877 1
3,865.5
3 884 7
3 908 7
3 935 4
3 955 1
3 983 3
4020 2
4 039 3
4066 3
4,115.5
4 134 9
4 162 0
DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME
Real per capita disposable personal income rose in the fourth quarter of 1988.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
4,000
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
4,000
1,400
1,400
DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
16,000
16,000
14,000
14,000
12,000
12,000
10,000
10,000
8,000
8,000
6,000
6,000
1988
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Period
Personal
Less:
Personal
tax and
nontax
payments
Disposable
income
Less:
Personal
outlays 1
Equals:
Personal
saving
Di.sposable
personal
income in
1982
dollars
(billions)
Per capita
disposable personal
income
Current
dollars
2,258.4
0
5209
2,670.8
2,838.6
3,108.7
3,325.3
3,531.1
3,780.0
4,063.2
340.5
393.3
409.3
410.5
440.2
486.6
511.4
570.3
590.3
1,917.9
2,127.6
2,261.4
2,428.1
2,668.6
2,838.7
3,019.6
3,209.7
3,472.9
Current
dollars
1982
dollars
1,781.1
1,968.1
2,107.5
2,297.4
2,504.5
2,713.3
2,898.0
3,105.5
3,325.9
136.8
159.4
153.9
130.6
164.1
125.4
121.7
104.2
147.0
2,214.3
2,248.6
2,261.5
2,331.9
2,469.8
2,542.8
2,640.9
2,686.3
2,789.4
8,421
9,243
9,724
10,340
11,257
11,861
12,496
13,157
14,107
Percent
change in
real per
capita
disposable
personal
income
Saving as
percent of
disposable
personal
income
Population,
including
Armed
Forces
abroad
(thousands) 2
Percent
Dollars
Billions of dollars
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 p
1982
dollars
Per capita personal
consumption
expenditures
9,722
9,769
9,724
9,930
10,419
10,625
10,929
11,012
11,331
7,607
8,320
8,818
9,515
10,253
10,985
11,618
12,348
13,104
8,794
8,818
9,139
9,489
9,839
10,160
10,334
10,525
— 1.1
.5
-.5
2.1
4.9
2.0
2.9
.8
2.9
7.5
6.8
5.4
6.1
4.4
4.0
3.2
4.2
227,754
230,182
232,549
234,829
237,051
239,322
241,650
243,944
246,180
8,783
7.1
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
1986:
IV
IV
IV
IV
IV
2,729.2
2,941.8
3,188.3
3,399.1
3,599.6
411.1
413.9
459.7
499.6
534.9
2,318.1
2,527.9
2,728.6
2,899.5
3,064.7
2,174.9
2,382.5
2,571.3
2,787.7
2,967.9
143.1
145.4
157.3
111.7
96.8
2,276.1
2,392.7
2,496.3
2,562.8
2,649.4
9,929
10,725
11,467
12,068
12,635
9,749
10,151
10,491
10,667
10,923
9,068
9,825
10,479
11,240
11,857
8,904
9,299
9,587
9,935
10,250
1.2
9.1
1.7
3.3
_ 2
6.2
5.8
5.8
3.9
3.2
233,466
235,707
237,946
240,257
242,557
1987: I
II
III....
IV
3,676.1
3,736.1
3,801.0
3,906.8
532.2
582.0
576.2
591.0
3,143.9
3,154.1
3,224.9
3,315.8
3,013.1
3,084.7
3,152.3
3,171.8
130.8
69.5
72.6
144.0
2,679.6
2,652.8
2,683.9
2,728.9
12,934
12,947
13,204
13,543
11,024
10,889
10,989
11,145
12,020
12,282
12,521
12,564
10,245
10,330
10,421
10,340
3.8
-4.8
3.7
5.8
4.2
2.2
2.3
4.3
243,077
243,618
244,236
244,845
1988: I
11
III....
IV "..
3,951.4
4,022.4
4,094.0
4,185.1
575.8
601.0
586.5
598.0
3,375.6
3,421.5
3,507.5
3,587.1
3,225.7
3,293.6
3,361.8
3,422.5
149.9
127.8
145.7
164.6
2,762.3
2,762.2
2,800.4
2,832.8
13,760
13,919
14,231
14,515
11,260
11,237
11,362
11,463
12,751
12,996
13,232
13,435
10,435
10,492
10,564
10,609
4.2
-.8
4.5
3.6
4.4
3.7
4.2
4.6
245,318
245,806
246,469
247,128
interest paid by consumers to business, and person-
2
Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which an.1 averages for the period.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).
FARM INCOME
In the fourth quarter of 1988, according to preliminary data, gross farm income rose $4.1 billion (annual rate) and
net farm income rose $2.4 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO S CALE)
240
200
BILLIC NS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
240
200
—
1
160
r—^_———1
~^*f'
/
160
GRO SS FARM INCOME
120
120
80
80
40
20
20
10
10
' SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Income of farm operators from farming
Net farm income
Gross farm income
PC riod
Cas i marketing receipts
Total >
Total
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
....
1987
1988 p
1986- I
II
III
IV
1987- I
II
Ill
IV
1988- I
II.
Ill
IV »..
1
. . .
Livestock and
products
149.3
166.4
163.5
153.0
174.9
166.2
159.8
169.8
170.3
139.7
141.7
142.6
136.6
142.4
144.0
135.1
138.1
148.8
68.0
69.2
70.3
69.4
73.0
69.8
71.5
76.2
79.6
150.4
168.0
158.1
162.6
134.9
129.9
137.8
137.7
68.0
67.8
77.3
73.0
173.6
162.5
168.9
173.7
176.4
184.5
158.1
162.2
134.9
134.4
146.5
136.6
145.3
157.1
151.7
140.6
73.3
77.0
79.6
75.1
78.2
75.5
85.4
79.3
fash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Governm nt payments, other farm cash
income, and nonmoney income furnished bv farms.
2
Physical changes in ciid-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average
prices during the year.
Crops
71.7
72.5
72.3
67.1
69.5
74.2
63.6
61.9
69.1
66.9
62.1
60.5
64.7
61.6
57.4
66.9
61.5
67.1
81.6
66.3
61.3
Value of
inventory
changes 2
Production
expenses
Current
dollars
1982 dollars 3
133.1
139.4
140.0
140.4
142.7
134.0
122.3
123.5
131.7
16.1
26.9
23.5
12.7
32.2
32.3
37.5
46.3
38.5
18.8
28.6
23.5
12.2
29.9
29.1
32.9
39.3
31.7
J Q
125.4
122.2
121.1
120.7
25.0
45.9
37.0
41.9
22.2
40.4
32.3
36.3
-.3
.1
-.4
-1.9
-4.0
-5.4
-10.0
-12.1
120.3
124.1
125.0
124.6
127.2
129.8
134.1
135.8
53.4
38.4
43.9
49.0
49.2
54.7
24.0
26.4
45.9
32.8
37.2
41.2
41.2
45.3
19.7
21.4
-6.3
6.5
-1.4
-10.9
6.3
-2.4
-2.8
-.6
-7.9
-3.8
-3.3
-2.3
CORPORATE PROFITS
In the third quarter of 1988, according to current estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $8.0 billion (annual
rate) and after-tax profits rose $6.4 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
320
~ 320
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
280
280
PROFITS BEFORE TAX.
240
240
200
200
160
160
PROFITS AFTER TAX
120
120
TAX LIABILITY.
80
80
40
40
UNDISTRIBUTED PROFITS
I
I
I
1
I
I
1981
1980
1
1982
1
i i i
I
1983
I
I I
1984
I
1
1985
I
I
I
I
1986
I
1987
I
I
I
I
0
1988
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment 1
Profits after tax
Domestic industries
Period
Nonfinancial
Total 2
Total
1980
1981...
1982
1983...
1984
1985...
1986
1987...
1988"
Financial
Total 3
Manufacturing
Profits
before tax
Tax
liability
Wholesale and
retail
trade
Total
Dividends
Undistributed
profits
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
194.0
202.3
159.2
196.7
234.2
222.6
244.7
258.7
277.8
159.6
173.8
131.2
166.6
203.3
191.4
212.8
222.3
240.9
21.0
16.5
11.8
18.1
13.0
22.8
31.8
30.1
31.1
138.6
157.3
119.4
148.5
190.3
168.6
180.9
192.1
209.8
77.1
88.5
58.0
70.1
88.8
79.7
79.4
96.8
111.4
21.6
32.5
34.6
38.9
51.2
44.1
46.1
42.8
38.6
237.1
226.5
169.6
207.6
240.0
224.3
236.4
276.7
302.0
84.8
81.1
63.1
77.2
93.9
96.4
106.6
133.8
141.1
152.3
145.4
106.5
130.4
146.1
127.8
129.8
142.9
160.9
54.7
63.6
66.9
71.5
79.0
83.3
88.2
95.5
104.5
97.6
81.8
39.6
58.9
67.0
44.6
41.6
47.4
56.4
-43.1
-24.2
104
-10.9
-5.8
-1.7
8.3
-18.0
— 24.2
IV
IV
IV
IV
IV
150.7
223.4
224.6
228.4
244.1
121.6
190.7
193.9
193.6
211.9
18.7
15.5
13.6
26.0
28.9
102.9
175.2
180.3
167.6
183.0
46.8
88.6
79.8
83.8
87.7
33.6
43.1
51.8
38.5
42.5
164.1
231.5
226.1
235.0
252.1
59.8
88.1
87.0
99.8
114.3
104.3
143.4
139.2
135.2
137.9
68.5
73.9
80.8
84.0
89.8
35.8
69.5
58.4
51.2
48.1
-13.4
-8.1
-1.6
-6.6
-8.1
1987: I
II
HI
IV
247.5
253.6
269.9
263.7
213.0
219.2
234.6
222.2
30.7
31.4
29.5
28.8
182.3
187.8
205.1
193.4
84.8
93.8
107.0
101.7
46.5
37.8
44.1
43.0
261.8
273.7
289.4
281.9
126.3
132.6
140.0
136.2
135.5
141.1
149.5
145.7
91.7
94.0
97.0
99.3
43.8
47.0
52.4
46.4
-14.4
-20.0
-19.5
-18.2
1988: I
II
III
IV
266.8
278.5
284.6
236.6
243.1
243.8
27.6
30.0
32.7
209.0
213.1
211.1
110.6
114.5
111.4
43.9
37,0
36.6
286.2
305.9
313.9
136.9
143.2
144.8
149.4
162.7
169.1
101.3
103.1
105.7
108.0
48.1
59.6
63.4
-19.4
-27.4
-29.3
-20.7
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
1986:
1
2
See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital c
Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.
3
Includes industries not shown separately.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of E<:i
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
According to advance estimates for the fourth quarter of 1988, nonresidential fixed investment rose $4.1 billion
(annual rate) and residential investment rose $7.3 billion. There was a $33.7 billion increase in inventories,
following an increase of $49.7 billion in the third quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
800
800
700
700
600
600
500
500
400
400
300
200
-100
1988
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Change in business
inventories
Fixed investment
Period
Gross
private
domestic
investment
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 f
19821983:
19841985:
19861987-
IV
IV
IV
IV
IV
I
II
HI
IV
1988- I
II
Ill
IV
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Nonresidential
Total
Total
437.0
515.5
447.3
502.3
664.8
643.1
665.9
712.9
765.5
445.3
491.5
471.8
509.4
597.1
631.8
650.4
673.7
717.4
322.8
369.2
366.7
356.9
416.0
442.9
433.9
446.8
487.7
409.6
579.8
661.8
654.1
656.4
469.5
548.8
616.8
646.8
658.4
354.9
383.9
435.0
451.3
434.1
685.5
698.5
702.8
764.9
647.8
665.8
688.3
692.9
422.8
438.2
462.1
464.1
763.4
758.1
772.5
767.9
698.1
714.4
722.8
734.3
471.5
487.8
493.7
497.8
Structures
113.9
138.5
143.3
124.0
141.1
153.2
138.5
139.5
142.3
137.6
127.4
146.6
155.9
134.6
132.7
134.4
143.0
147.7
140.1
142.3
143.8
142.8
Producers'
durable
equipment
Residential
Total
Nonfarm
208.9
230.7
223.4
232.8
274.9
289.7
295.4
307.3
345.5
122.5
122.3
105.1
152.5
181.1
188.8
216.6
226.9
229.7
-8.3
24.0
-24.5
-7.1
67.7
11.3
15.5
39.2
48.1
-2.4
18.3
-23.1
.4
60.5
14.6
17.4
40.7
41.8
217.3
256.5
288.4
295.5
299.4
290.1
303.8
319.1
316.3
331.3
345.5
349.9
355.1
114.7
164.9
181.8
195.5
224.4
-59.9
31.0
45.0
7.2
-2.0
-51.1
21.3
41.3
23.7
3.0
225.0
227.6
226.2
228.8
37.7
32.7
14.5
72.0
40.9
31.4
17.8
72.8
226.6
226.5
229.1
236.4
65.3
43.7
49.7
33.7
49.4
33.1
41.9
42.7
EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
According to the Commerce Department October-November survey, business spending for new plant and equipment is expected to rise 6.0 percent in 1989, following an estimated rise of 10.4 percent in 1988.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
500
500
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
400
1
400
r
ALL INDUSTRIES
300
300
200
NONMANUFACTURING-^
200
MANUFACTURING
100
100
80
60
60
40
40
1981
I
J__L
1983
1982
I I
1984
I
1985
1986
I I
1987
1988
J/ SURVEYED QUARTERLY
2J SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
1989
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Addenda
Industries surveyed quarterly
Nonmanufacturing
Manufacturing
All
industries
Total
1980
1981
1982...
1983
1984...
1985
1986...
1987
1988 4
1989 4
282.80
315.22
310.58
304.78
354.44
387.13
379.47
389.67
430.17
455.96
112.33
126.54
120.68
116.20
138.82
153.48
142.69
145.90
164.54
171.67
55.36
59.81
55.35
53.08
66.24
73.27
69.14
71.01
77.75
79.29
56.96
66.73
65.33
63.12
72.58
80.21
73.56
74.88
86.79
92.38
1987: I
II
III
IV
376.73
380.66
394.54
406.82
141.50
141.71
148.20
152.21
70.79
69.05
71.96
72.28
1988: I
II
III
IV4
412.02
426.94
436.01
445.73
158.60
161.69
168.91
168.97
1989: I 4
II4
466.76
473.55
177.81
179.48
Period
Nonmanufacturing
Surveyed
quarterly
Mining
Transportation
Public
utilities
Commercial
and
other
170.47
188.68
189.89
188.58
215.61
233.65
236.78
243.78
265.63
284.30
15.99
21.39
20.05
15.19
16.86
15.88
11.22
11.39
12.57
11.22
16.60
15.84
14.79
13.97
16.52
18.02
18.80
18.85
21.36
24.81
37.74
41.21
45.43
44.96
47.48
48.81
46.38
44.88
46.39
47.15
100.14
110.24
109.63
114.45
134.75
150.94
160.38
168.65
185.32
201.12
70.70
72.66
76.24
79.92
235.23
238.95
246.34
254.61
10.38
11.02
11.81
12.32
18.77
18.12
19.19
19.34
43.95
43.95
45.29
46.38
162.13
165.86
170.05
176.56
141 50
141.71
148 20
152 21
235 23
238.95
246 34
254 61
75.70
76.87
79.48
78.97
82.90
84.82
89.43
90.00
253.43
265.25
267.10
276.76
12.59
13.26
12.47
11.97
20.43
20.72
22.17
22.12
44.61
45.43
46.70
48.80
175.79
185.83
185.76
193.87
158.60
161 69
168.91
168 97
253.43
265.25
267.10
276.76
84.25
84.00
93.56
95.48
288.95
294.07
11.62
11.81
26.90
25.83
49.35
50.51
201.07
205.92
177 81
179.48
288 95
294.07
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Total i
1
Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services;
social services and membership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May
1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nonmanufacturing surveyed annually") for data for these industries.
2
"All industries" plus the part of nonmanufacturing that is surveyed annually.
10
Total
nonfarm
business 2
314.47
349.26
347.47
343.35
398.99
431.94
427.23
440.66
Manufacturing
112.33
126.54
120.68
116.20
138.82
153.48
142.69
145.90
164.54
171.67
Total
202.15
222.72
226.79
227.15
260.16
278.46
284.54
294.77
170.47
188.68
189.89
188.58
215.61
233.65
236.78
243.78
265 63
284.30
Surveyed
annually 3
31.68
34.04
36.89
38.56
44.55
44.81
47.75
50.99
3
Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services;
social services and membership organizations; and real estate.
4
Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in October-November 1988, corrected for
biases.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
In December, civilian employment and unemployment were about unchanged from their November levels. (Series
revised.)
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
124
124
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
r~^~"
•-'""""
120
"
,.^-—
nvi|i \N LABOR FOR i~f
116
112
^-->
108
/•"]
116
^—^
-~^-~i
112
..••**'
-^
108
.,'"—'"
104
f~
,--''
S
_-'"*•.*- v..~
100
120
-'"V"
104
CIVILIAN
EMPLOYMENT
IOC
96
96
x^
**
\
^
12
^
8
^^
-
0
8
—•—_
\
u MEMPLOYMEN r
4
\\\\\\\\\\\
! I II1 11 tI 1
t
t I1
1 \ \ \ \ 1 I 1 I I !I 1 1 I 1 1 M !J
1982
1981
1983
11 lil 1 1 1 1t
1984
1985
12
4
1 1I 1 1 1
I1 I1 1!1 I1
1986
|f |j f |
1987
1 ! I 1 1 1 | J t | tt t 1 1 I 1 t 1 1 I 1 0
1988
1989
16 YEARS OF AGE A SD OVER
COUNCIL OF CONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE; DEPARTMEN F OF LABOR
[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA]
Period
Unemployment
Resident
Armed
Forces
NSA
Labor force
including
resident
Armed
Forces
169,349
171,775
173,939
175,891
178,080
179,912
182,293
184,490
186,322
1,604
1,645
1,668
1,676
1,697
1,706
1,706
1,737
1,709
108,544
110,315
111,872
113,226
115,241
117,167
119,540
121,602
123,378
100,907
102,042
101,194
102,510
106,702
108,856
111,303
114,177
116,677
106,940
108,670
110,204
111,550
113,544
115,461
117,834
119,865
121,669
99,303
100,397
99,526
100,834
105,005
107,150
109,597
112,440
114,968
95,938
97,030
3,401 96,125
3,383 97,450
3,321 101,685
3,179 103,971
3,163 106,434
3,208 109,232
3,169 111,800
4,064
4,499
5,852
5,997
5,512
5,334
5,345
5,122
4,965
7,637
8,273
10,678
10,717
8,539
185,370
1,750
122,451
115,490
120,701
113,740
3,212 110,528
185,571
185,705
185,847
185,964
186,088
186,247
186,402
186,522
186,666
186,801
186,949
187,098
1,749
1,736
1,736
1,732
1,714
1,685
1,673
1,692
1,704
1,687
1,705
1,696
122,784
122,901
122,672
123,060
122,917
123,209
123,331
123,692
123,688
123,778
124,215
124,259
115,804
116,009
115,865
116,392
116,117
116,686
116,707
116,895
117,074
117,260
117,652
117,705
121,035
121,165
120,936
121,328
121,203
121,524
121,658
122,000
121,984
122,091
122,510
122,563
114,055
114,273
114,129
114,660
114,403
115,001
115,034
115,203
115,370
115,573
115,947
116,009
3,256 110,799
3,200 111,073
3,181 110,948
3,187 111,473
3,110 111,293
3,121 111,880
3,060 111,974
3,142 112,061
3,176 112,194
3,238 112,335
3,238 112,709
3,193 112,816
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986*
1987
1988
1987:
Dec
Civilian employment
Noninstitutional
population
including
resident
Armed
Forces
NSA
r
Employment
including
resident
Armed
Forces
Nonagricultural
Civilian
labor force
Agricultural
Total
Total
3,364
3,368
Part time
for
economic
reasons l
Total
15
weeks
and
over
Civilian
Labor
force
participation
rate
(percent) 2
Employment/
population
ratio
(percent) 2
59.2
59.0
63.8
63.9
64.0
64.0
64.4
64.8
6,701
1,871
2,285
3,485
4,210
2,737
2,305
2,232
1,983
1,610
65.3
65.6
65.9
57.8
57.9
59.5
60.1
60.7
61.5
62.3
4,979
6,961
1,781
65.7
61.9
5,113
5,101
5,087
4,953
4,676
5,073
5,102
4,972
4,862
4,727
4,819
5,033
6,980
6,892
6,807
6,668
6,800
6,523
6,624
6,797
1,728
1,732
1,693
1,582
1,614
1,543
1,619
1,636
1,568
1,554
1,502
1,495
65.8
65.9
65.7
65.9
65.7
65.8
65.9
66.0
66.0
66.0
66.1
66.1
62.0
62.1
62.0
62.2
62.0
62.3
62.3
62.3
62.4
62.4
62.6
62.6
8,312
8,237
7,425
1988:
Jan r ....
Feb r....
Mar r....
Apr r....
May r....
June r...
July r...
Aug <:...
Sept r...
Oct r.....
Nov r....
Dec
1
Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc.
2
Civilian labor force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population.
'Data beginning January 1986 not strictly eomparable with earlier data because of ehange in
6,614
6,518
6,563
6,554
estimation procedures.
Note.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1984.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
11
SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
In December, the overall unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.3 percent while the civilian unemployment rate
fell slightly, to 5.3 percent. (Series revised.)
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
ADJUSTED)
10
1989
"UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group)
Unemployment
rate,
all
workers l
Period
1980
1981 .
1982
1983 .
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988.
1987:
r
Dec ...
r
1988: Jan ....
Feb r....
Mar r....
Apr r....
May r...
June r..
July r...
Aug '...
Sept '...
r
Oct ....
Nov r ...
Dec
ers
7.0
7.5
9.5
9.5
7.4
7.1
6.9
6.1
5.4
7.1
7.6
9.7
9.6
7.5
7.2
7.0
6.2
Men
20 years
and over
Women
20 years
and
over
6.8
6.6
5.8
5.2
12.3
5.3
3.4
8.3
5.4
8.1
6.6
12.2
12.4
12.5
12.0
12.1
11.7
11.5
11.4
10.9
11.2
11.2
11.6
5.5
5.3
5.3
5.1
5.3
5.1
5.1
5.3
5.1
5.0
5.1
5.0
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.1
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.4
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.1
8.8
8.3
7.5
8.5
8.4
7.9
8.5
5.4
5.3
5.3
5.1
5.2
5.0
5.0
5.3
5.1
5.0
5.0
5.1
8.3
7.9
7.8
7.5
7.7
7.7
8.0
7.4
7.4
7.4
7.1
7.0
6.6
6.6
6.5
6.2
6.4
6.3
6.4
6.4
6.3
6.1
6.2
6.3
4.9
11.0
5.0
4.9
4.9
4.7
4.9
4.6
4.5
4.9
4.6
4.6
4.8
4.7
5.1
5.1
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
5.0
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.7
16.0
15.5
16.4
15.8
15.6
14.1
15.1
15.4
15.5
15.0
14.1
14.8
5.0
4.8
4.7
4.6
4.7
4.6
10.9
11.2
11.3
10.6
10.9
10.3
10.1
10.0
9.5
9.8
10.0
10.0
Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces.
Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours.
8.8
9.4
10.5
10.4
9.3
9.3
9.1
8.4
7.6
16.0
4.7
Parttime
workers
8.5
11.0
10.9
8.6
8.1
7.9
7.1
6.3
5.2
4.9
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.6
Fulltime
workers
6.9
7.3
9.6
9.5
7.2
6.8
6.6
5.8
5.2
4.9
5.8
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.6
5.4
5.4
5.6
5.4
5.3
5.4
5.3
Women
who
maintain
families
9.2
10.4
11.7
12.2
10.3
10.4
9.8
9.2
8.1
5.4
4.9
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.5
5,3
Married
men,
spouse
present
Labor
force
time lost
(percent) 2
4.3
6.5
6.5
4.6
4.3
4.4
3.9
3.3
6.9
7.3
9.3
9.2
7.1
5.8
12
Black
14.3
15.6
18.9
19.5
15.9
15.1
14.5
13.0
11.7
5.7
2
Black
and
other
13.1
14.2
17.3
17.8
14.4
13.7
13.1
11.6
10.4
5.5
1
White
6.3
6.7
8.6
8.4
6.5
6.2
6.0
5.3
4.7
6.4
6.8
8.3
8.1
6.8
6.6
6.2
5.5
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
Both
sexes
16-19
years
Experienced
wage and
salary
workers
17.8
19.6
23.2
22.4
18.9
18.6
18.3
16.9
15.3
5.9
6.3
8.8
8.9
6.6
6.2
6.1
5.4
4.8
5.4
By selected groups
By race
By sex and age
All
civilian
work-
4.2
7.5
8.1
7.9
7.7
8.2
NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1984.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
7.9
SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE PROGRAMS
In December, the percentages of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for
15-26 weeks fell, while the percentages for 5-14 weeks and for 27 weeks and over rose. Both the mean and the
median duration of unemployment rose. (Series revised.)
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*
70
70
REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
60
-
50
-
JOB LOSERS
40
40
-
30
20
30
REENTRANTS
-
20
JOB LEAVERS
10
-
10
NEW ENTRANTS
imitmn
1985
1989
1985
1986
illiiliini
19881
1987
1989
'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
COUNCIL OF ECONOMC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Reason for unemployment:
percent distribution
Duration of unemployment
Period
Unemployment
(thousands)
5-14
weeks
43.1
41.7
36.4
33.3
39.2
42.1
41.9
43.7
46.0
32.3
30.7
31.0
27.4
28.7
30.2
31.0
29.6
30.0
Insured
Number of
weeks
Percent distribution
Less
than
5
weeks
State
programs
15-26
weeks
27
weeks
and
over
Average
(mean)
Median
13.8
13.6
16.0
15.4
12.9
12.3
12.7
12.7
12.0
10.7
14.0
16.6
23.9
19.1
15.4
14.4
14.0
12.1
11.9
13.7
15.6
20.0
18.2
15.6
15.0
14.5
13.5
6.5
6.9
8.7
10.1
7.9
6.8
6.9
6.5
5.9
Job
losers
Job
leavers
Reentrants
New
entrants
51.7
51.6
58.7
58.4
51.8
49.8
48.9
48.0
46.1
11.7
11.2
7.9
7.7
9.6
10.6
12.3
13.0
14.7
25.2
25.4
22.3
22.5
25.6
27.1
26.2
26.6
27.0
11.4
11.9
11.1
11.3
13.0
12.5
12.5
12.4
12.2
Insured
unemployment
Initial
claims
plovment,
"all
regular
programs
(unadjusted) *
Weekly average, thousands
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
7,637
8,273
10,678
10,717
8,539
8,312
8,237
7,425
6,701
Dec
' 6,961
r
46.2
r
1988- Jan
Feb
Mar
' 6,980
' 6,892
r
6,807
r
6,668
' 6,800
' 6,523
r
6,624
r
6,797
'6,614
'6518
r
6,563
6,554
'44.2
r
44.7
r
44.9
r
46.6
r
45.5
r
47.3
r
44.9
r
46.8
r
47.4
r
47.4
r
47.6
46". 2
r
1987:
May
June
July .. .
Sept
... .
Got
Noy
Dec
28.4
31.4
r
30.2
r
30.2
r
29.6
r
30.6
r
29.2
r
30.7
r
29.0
r
28.8
r
28.5
r
29.5
31.1
r
!2.6
r
11.9
12.2
12.5
11.4
11.7
11.4
12.4
12.3
11.8
12.2
12.0
11.5
r
!2.9
!2.6
r
!2.9
r
!2.4
r
!2.4
r
!2.2
r
!2.1
r
!1.9
r
!1.9
r
!2.1
r
!1.9
r
!0.9
11.2
1
Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (TJCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad <RR) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program.
!4.2
r
M4.2
M4.1
M3.8
r
!3.5
r
!3.8
r
!3.2
r
!3.5
r
!3.5
r
!3.5
r
!3.4
r
!2.6
12.8
r
r
45.6
r
45.4
r
46.0
r
45.7
r
44.7
r
47.4
r
46.7
r
46.1
r
46.2
r
46.7
r
45.9
r
46.2
46.5
r
5.9
r
6.3
r
6.3
r
6.4
r
o.8
r
5.9
r
5.9
r
6.2
r
o.9
r
5.7
r
5.7
r
5.6
5.8
r
!3.5
!4.9
r
!4.0
' 15.5
r
!4.8
r
!3.9
r
!4.5
r
!3.8
r
!4.6
r
!4.9
r
!5.3
r
!4.7
15.1
r
28.0
r
27.2
27.7
26.1
27.2
26.7
26.6
28.1
27.3
26.8
27.2
26.9
26.2
r
3,350
3,047
4,061
3,396
2,476
2,611
2,650
2,332
488
460
583
438
377
396
378
328
3,837
3,410
4,594
3,775
2,561
2,693
2,746
2,401
!2.9
2,090
317
2,322
!2.4
r
!2.4
r
!2.7
r
!3.3
r
!2.0
r
!2.2
r
!1.9
r
!1.9
r
!1.5
'11.6
r
!2.2
12.1
2,242
2,208
2,140
2,087
2,064
2,064
2,096
2,098
2,015
1,934
1,995
2,010
356
327
308
302
313
302
328
306
289
288
294
311
2,870
2,775
2,536
2,208
1,949
1,877
2,044
1,905
1,722
1,667
1,856
NOTK.—Seasonally adjusted unemployment data revised beginning 1984.
Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration).
13
NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 279,000 in December.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
110
100 -
ALL NONAGRICULTURAL
ESTABLISHMENTS
90
80 —
SERVICE-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES
70
18
60 —
20
50
ACTURING
18
40 -
7( H l i i l l i i i i
GOODS-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES
30
l i 1 1 1 i i I : i : : i : i ; h i : 1 1 I ; :; 1 1 1 1 : : t i : i : ; 1 : : : nh
^
CONSTRUCTION
_.J_~.
20'
1985
^^
1986
1987
1988
iiiliiiil]
1989
I 1
; 111 i l ] ti 1
1985
1986
1987
•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
1 1 1 I1 1 1 !I
1988
1989
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 seasonally adjusted]
Service-producing industries
Goods-producing industries
Period
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
Total
nonagricultural
employment
Manufacturing
Total
2
90,406
91,156
25,658
25,497
89,566
90,200
94,496
97,519
99,525
102,310
106,037
23,813
23,334
24,727
24,859
24,558
24,784
25,564
1987: Dec.... 104,001
1988: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May....
June...
July....
Aug....
Sept....
1985
1986
1987
1988
p
104,262
104,729
105,020
105,281
105,489
106,057
106,271
106,425
106,737
Oct T... 106,973
Nov '.. 107,377
Dec".. 107,656
Construction
4,346
4,188
3*905
Total.
20,285
20,170
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Wholesale
trade
5,146
5,165
5^082
4^954
11,505
11,490
11,230
11,218
11,518
7^702
7,873
7J70
7,734
7^847
8,022
64,748
65,659
65',753
66,866
69,769
72,660
74,967
77,525
80,473
5,159
s',238
5,255
5385
5,581
5^278
5,268
5,555
5,717
5,753
5,872
6,156
12,187
12,109
11^039
10,732
8,098
8,061
5,275
5,358
Retail
trade
Finance,
insurance,
and real
estate
16,545
17J356
17,930
18^509
19,205
5,160
5,298
5341
5,468
5,689
5,955
6,283
6,549
6,678
15,035
15,189
15J179
15J613
Government
Services
Total
Federal
19^036
19,694
20,797
22,000
23,053
24,196
25,463
16,241
16,031
15,837
15,869
16,024
16,394
16,693
17,015
17,389
2,866
2,772
2,739
2,774
2,807
2,875
2,899
2,943
2,971
17,890
18,619
3,948
4,383
4,673
4,816
4^998
5,292
is',781
18,434
19,378
19,260
18,965
19,065
19,540
25,201
5,118
19,348
11,390
7,958
78,800
5,481
5,984
18,784
6,619
24,725
17,207'
2,980
25,180
25,271
25,330
25,435
25,466
25,592
25,663
25,639
25,648
25,743
25,844
25,893
5,083
5,150
5,192
5,238
5,237
5,308
5,330
5,340
5,365
5,366
5,405
5,418
19,369
19,390
19,405
19,460
19,490
19,544
19,593
19,560
19,549
19,648
19,718
19,752
11,393
11,404
11,411
11,459
11,477
11,515
11,566
11,547
11,537
11,595
11,638
11,668
7,976
7,986
7,994
8,001
8,013
8,029
8,027
8,013
8,012
8,053
8,080
8,084
79,082
79,458
79,690
79,846
80,023
80,465
80,608
80,786
81,089
81,230
81,533
81,763
5,499
5,513
5,530
5,543
5,556
5,582
5,598
5,605
5,618
5,631
5,648
5,650
6,010
6,035
6,061
6,089
6,115
6,148
6,174
6,192
6,219
6,246
6,276
6,303
18,927
19,045
19,050
19,093
19,130
19,205
19,261
19,279
19,291
19,327
19,387
19,439
6,633
6,636
6,651
6,650
6,656
6,679
6,684
6,689
6,692
6,708
6,724
6,733
24,795
24,975
25,078
25,163
25,216
25,472
25,561
25,662
25,737
25,826
25,938
26,064
17,218
17,254
17,320
17,308
17,350
17,379
17,330
17,359
17,532
17,492
17,560
17,574
2,973
2,972
2,970
2,963
2,957
2,951
2,951
2,956
2,989
2,989
2,988
2,993
1,14:1
1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who
received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived
from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor
force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-empioyed persons, and domestic servants;
which count persons as employed when thev are not at work because of industrial disputes, had
14
Total
Transportation
and
public
utilities
weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the
working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing
establishments.
2
Includes mining, not shown separately.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Average gross hourly
earnings
Average weekly
hours
Manufacturing
Total
private
nonagricultural '
Period
Total
Total
private
nonagricultural '
Overtime
Adjusted hourly earnings index — total private
nonagricultural 2
Percent change 4from
a year
earlier 5
Index,
Manufacturing
1977
dollars 3
Current
dollars
Current
dollars
1977 dollars
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 p
35.3
35.2
34.8
35.0
35.2
34.9
34.8
34.8
34.8
39.7
39.8
38.9
40.1
40.7
40.5
40.7
41.0
41.1
2.8
2.8
2.3
3.0
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.7
3.9
$6.66
7.25
7.68
8.02
8.32
8.57
8.76
8.98
9.29
$7.27
7.99
8.49
8.83
9.19
9.54
9.73
9.91
10.17
127.3
138.9
148.5
155.4
160.3
165.2
169.4
173.5
179.1
93.5
92.6
93.4
94.8
94.6
94.1
95.0
94.0
93.2
9.0
9.1
6.9
4.6
3.2
3.1
2.5
2.4
3.2
-4.0
-1.0
.9
1.5
-.3
5
1.0
— 1.1
-.9
1987- Dec
34.6
41.0
3.8
9.11
10.01
175.7
93.7
2.7
-1.7
1988- Jan
Feb
34.7
34.8
34.6
34.9
34.7
34.7
34.9
34.6
34.7
34.9
34.8
34.7
41.1
41.0
40.9
41.2
41.0
41.1
41.1
41.0
41.2
41.2
41.2
41.0
3.9
3.7
3.7
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
4.0
3.9
3.9
9.14
9.13
9.16
9.23
9.27
9.27
9.32
9.32
9.37
9.43
9.42
9.44
10.02
10.03
10.05
10.11
10.15
10.18
10.17
10.20
10.26
10.28
10.29
10.31
176.6
176.7
177.0
178.0
178.7
178.6
179.3
179.5
180.3
181.5
181.4
181.7
93.8
93.7
93.5
93.6
93.6
93.2
93.2
92.9
93.0
93.1
92.9
92.7
3.1
2.8
2.9
3.2
3.4
3.3
3.5
3.1
3.3
3.8
3.3
3.4
-1.0
-1.0
1980
1981
July
Sept
Oct
Nov '
Dec p
g
a
-.5
-.6
-.5
g
-.8
— .4
-.9
-1.0
AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Percent change from
a year earlier,
total private nonagricultural 5
Average gross weekly earnings
Period
Current dollars
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
. ...
p
1987' Dec
1988' Jan
Feb
Mar
July
Sept
Oct r
Dec p
. ..
Manufacturing
Total private
nonagricultural 1
1977 dollars
Current dollars
$235.10
255.20
267.26
280.70
292.86
299.09
304.85
312.50
323.29
$172.74
170.13
168.09
171.26
172.78
170.42
171.07
169.28
168.29
$288.62
318.00
330.26
354.08
374.03
386.37
396.01
406.31
417.99
$367.78
399.26
426.82
442.97
458.51
464.46
466.75
479.68
491.56
$147.38
158.03
163.85
171.05
174.33
174.64
176.08
178.41
183.33
6.9
8.5
4.7
5.0
4.3
2.1
1.9
2.5
3.5
-5.8
-1.5
-1.2
1.9
.9
-1.4
.4
-1.0
-.6
315.21
168.02
410.41
484.12
178.27
3.0
— 1.4
317.16
317.72
316.94
322.13
321.67
321.67
325.27
322.47
325.14
329.11
327.82
327.57
168.43
168.46
167.43
169.36
168.41
167.89
169.06
166.82
167.68
168.86
167.94
167.21
411.82
411.23
411.05
416.53
416.15
418.40
417.99
418.20
422.71
423.54
423.95
422.71
476.38
478.19
487.62
491.34
485.42
495.22
491.23
489.72
492.91
499.05
500.89
491.81
179.80
180.42
180.38
182.50
182.12
183.04
1S5.47
183.28
183.23
186.00
186.18
184.96
3.1
2.8
2.4
4.2
3.1
3.3
4.2
2.8
4.2
4.1
3.2
3.8
g
-1.0
-1.3
.4
-.7
-.5
.2
-1.2
-.0
-.1
-1.0
1
4
5
Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.
Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing.
Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners
and clerical workers (on a 1977 = 100 base).
Retail trade
Current dollars
1977 dollars 3
2
3
Construction
Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places.
Based on seasonally unadjusted data.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
15
PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR
Output pe r hour of
all pe
Period
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Output J
Business
sector
Compensation per
hour 3
Hours of all
persons 2
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Real compensation
per hour 4
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Unit labor costs
Implicit price
deflator 5
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
Business
sector
Nonfarm
business
sector
1977 = 100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted
1979
99.6
99.3
107.9
107.9
108.3
108.7
119.1
118.9
99.4
99.2
119.5
119.7
117.0
116.5
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
99.3
100.7
100.3
103.0
105.5
98.8
99.8
99.2
102.5
104.6
106.7
108.9
105.5
109.9
119.2
106.7
108.5
104.9
110.1
119.2
107.5
108.2
105.2
106.8
112.9
108.0
108.7
105.7
107.5
114.0
131.5
143.7
154.9
161.4
167.9
131.3
143.6
154.8
161.5
167.8
96.7
95.8
97.3
98.2
97.9
96.6
95.8
97.2
98.3
97.9
132.5
142.7
154.5
156.7
159.1
132.9
144.0
156.0
157.6
160.4
127.6
139.8
148.1
153.0
158.2
127.8
140.3
149.2
154.3
159.0
1985
1986. .
1987
107.7
110.1
111.0
106.1
108.2
109.0
124.2
128.6
133.3
123.9
128.2
133.0
115.3
116.8
120.1
116.8
118.5
122.1
175.5
183.1
190.4
174.9
182.3
189.4
98.8
101.2
101.5
98.5
100.8
101.0
162.9
166.3
171.5
164.9
168.6
173.8
162.2
165.8
170.5
163.8
167.8
172.5
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
IV
IV
IV
IV
101.0
103.8
105.9
108.5
99.7
103.3
104.9
106.5
105.0
113.6
120.8
125.9
104.2
114.1
120.7
125.5
103.9
109.4
114.0
116.1
104.5
110.4
115.1
117.9
158.3
163.6
170.3
178.8
158.2
163.4
170.2
177.9
98.0
98.1
98.1
99.4
97.9
97.9
98.1
99.0
156.8
157.6
160.7
164.8
158.7
158.2
162.3
167.1
150.2
155.2
159.8
163.7
151.4
156.2
161.0
165.5
1986:
I
II
Ill
IV
110.5
110.4
110.0
109.8
108.6
108.4
108.0
107.8
128.4
128.2
128.5
129.3
128.1
127.8
128.1
128.8
116.2
116.1
116.8
117.8
117.9
117.9
118.6
119.5
180.4
182.0
184.0
186.2
179.8
181.2
183.1
185.4
100.0
101.2
101.7
102.2
99.6
100.7
101.2
101.8
163.3
164.9
167.3
169.6
165.5
167.1
169.5
172.1
163.7
165.0
167.0
167.5
165.7
167.0
169.0
169.5
1987:
I
II
Ill
IV
109.9
110.6
111.7
111.8
107.8
108.6
109.6
109.9
130.5
132.2
134.3
136.2
130.1
131.9
134.1
136.0
118.8
119.5
120.3
121.8
120.7
121.5
122.3
123.8
187.3
189.0
191.1
194.0
186.4
187.9
190.0
192.9
101.5
101.2
101.4
102.0
101.0
100.6
100.8
101.4
170.5
170.8
171.1
173.5
172.9
173.0
173.3
175.6
168.7
170.1
171.2
171.9
170.9
171.9
173.2
174.0
1988:
I
II
Ill
112.8
111.8
112.2
110.8
110.1
110.6
138.0.
138.8
139.7
137.9
139.2
140.4
122.3
124.1
124.5
124.4
126.4
126.9
195.8
198.1
201.0
194.6
196.6
199.4
102.1
102.1
102.4
101.5
101.3
101.5
173.5
177.1
179.1
175.7
178.6
180.2
172.3
174.7
176.7
174.2
176.2
177.9
-1.2
-1.6
11.1
11.2
9.0
8.9
Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates
1979
2.0
1.9
3.2
3.5
9.7
9.5
15
17
— .7
.7
-2.7
1.6
6.0
10.5
9.2
7.8
4.2
4.1
10.5
9.4
7.8
4.3
3.9
-2.7
-1.0
1.6
.9
-.2
-2.7
-.8
1.5
1.1
-.4
10.9
7.7
8.3
1.4
1.5
11.0
8.3
8.4
1.0
1.8
9.0
9.6
5.9
3.3
3.3
9.7
9.7
6.3
3.5
3.0
4.5
4.3
4.0
4.2
4.2
3.8
.9
2.4
.3
.6
2.3
2
2.4
2.1
3.1
2.8
2.2
3.1
2.5
2.3
2.8
3.0
2.4
2.8
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
-.3
1.4
— .4
2.7
2.5
-.4
1.0
-.6
3.3
2.1
-1.1
2.1
31
4.2
8.4
-1.2
1.7
-3.3
5.0
8.3
-.8
.7
28
1985
1986.
1987
2.1
2.2
.8
1.4
2.0
.8
4.2
3.5
3.6
3.9
3.5
3.8
2.1
1.3
2.8
2.5
1.5
3.0
1.5
5.7
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
IV
IV
IV
IV
3.0
3.1
1.7
.7
2.4
1.4
1.2
2
-.5
10.4
3.5
3.6
-1.2
9.8
3.1
3.5
-3.4
7.1
1.8
2.9
-3.5
8.2
1.9
3.4
4.5
5.5
3.8
5.4
5.0
4.3
3.9
5.1
3.2
1.4
.6
1.3
3.8
.2
.7
1.0
1.5
2.3
2.1
4.7
2.6
2.8
2.7
4.9
2.4
4.8
2.7
2.6
3.0
3.1
3.3
2.1
1986:
I
II
Ill
IV
7.7
-.4
-3
8.4
-.8
-1.5
-.9
8.3
-.8
.9
2.5
8.5
-.8
.8
2.4
.6
— .4
2.3
3.4
.0
-.0
2.4
3.3
3.7
3.7
4.4
4.8
4.3
3.2
4.3
5.1
2.1
5.1
2.0
2.1
2.7
4.6
1.9
2.3
-3.7
4.1
5.8
5.7
-3.8
4.0
5.9
6.1
.1
3.2
5.0
1.1
.4
3.0
5.1
1.2
1987:
I...
II
Ill
IV
3
2.7
3.9
.6
.0
3.2
3.7
.9
3.7
5.3
6.6
5.7
4.0
5.7
6.8
5.9
3.4
2.5
2.6
5.1
4.0
2.5
2.9
4.9
2.5
3.6
4.6
6.2
2.1
3.4
4.5
6.4
2.1
.2
.7
5.4
3.0
3.2
2.8
1.4
3.3
2.3
3.1
1.8
I
II
Ill
3.5
-3.4
1.5
3.4
-2.4
1.9
5.5
2.4
2.6
5.6
4.0
3.4
1.9
6.0
1.1
2.1
6.6
1.5
3.7
4.8
6.1
3.5
4.2
5.6
.1
6.8
3.7
1.0
5.8
4.5
.6
4.7
3.8
1988:
1
Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1982 dollars.
Hours ol all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family
workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data.
3
Wages and salaries of employees phis employers' contributions for social insurance and private
benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental pavments for the selfcmploved.
z
16
4
-3.2
-1.4
.8
2.4
.6
2.6
2.2
.8
.7
5.6
.3
.0
1.3
.1
-.5
.8
.2
8.5
4.5
-2.8
-1.2
Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for ail urban consumers.
5
Current dollar gross domestic product divided bv constant dollar gross domestic product.
NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in Jhe sector.
Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore
differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Industrial production rose 0.3 percent in December, following a 0.4 percent increase in November. The index for
December was 4.7 percent above its year-earlier level.
INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE)
240
FINAL PRODUCTS
220
INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE)
160
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
140
DFFFNSF Afjfl
200
SPACE
FOillPMFMT
y--"
180
120
160
100 lllllhllll
160
MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION
Illllllllll
140
140 ^
-*".— v^~
_.-— '
1
BUSINESS"
EQUIPMENT
^
X
^_^
"^
^ — *
DURABLE"
.-.-•----"
^^
120
120
^~'
CONSUMER
GOODS
imiiimi Ilillllllll
100
lllllMnii
|llll|lllll Illllllllll
PERCENT*
100
140
120
100
UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION
~
CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE
(TOTAL INDUSTRY)
90
UTILITIES
80
701
illllllllll Illllllllll lllllilllli I l l l l l l l l i l Illllllllll
1984
1984
1988
1985
1986
'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
1987
1988
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Total
industrial
production
Period
Index,
1977 = 100
Capacity utilization
rate, percent '
Industry production indexes, 1977=100
Manufacturing
Percent
change
from year
earlier
Mining
Total
Durable
Utilities
Nondurable
Total
industry
Manufacturing
1977 proportion
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 p.
100.0
108.6
111.0
103.1
109.2
121.4
123.7
125.1
129.8
137.2
19
2.2
71
5.9
11.2
1.9
1.1
3.8
5.7
84.31
108.2
110.5
102.2
110.2
123.4
126.4
129.1
134.7
142.7
49.10
109.1
111.1
99.9
107.7
124.2
127.6
128.4
133.1
141.9
35.11
107.0
109.7
105.5
113.7
122.3
124.6
130.1
136.8
143.9
9.83
112.4
117.5
109.3
102.9
111.1
108.9
100.4
100.7
103.4
5.96
107.3
107.1
104.8
105.2
110.7
111.1
108.5
110.3
114.4
80.9
79.9
72.1
74.6
81.0
80.4
79.4
80.7
83.3
79.3
78.2
70.3
73.9
80.5
80.1
79.7
81.1
83.5
1987:
Dec
133.9
5.6
138.9
137.3
141.3
104.6
111.7
82.4
82.6
1988- Jan
Feb
Mar
134.4
134.4
134.7
135.4
136.1
136.5
138.0
138.5
138.6
139.3
139.8
140.2
6.5
5.8
5.7
6.3
6.2
5.7
5.7
5.5
5.7
5.1
5.0
4.7
139.4
139.5
140.0
140.8
141.8
142.1
143.6
144.0
144.4
145.3
145.7
146.2
137.9
138.4
138.8
139.7
141.5
141.7
142.9
143.2
143.8
144.4
145.0
145.5
141.4
141.1
141.7
142.3
142.1
142.6
144.6
145.1
145.3
146.6
146.7
147.1
103.3
101.5
102.7
104.7
102.6
103.0
104.3
103.8
103.7
102.9
104.4
104.4
115.2
115.6
113.3
111.0
111.6
113.2
114.4
117.8
113.0
114.0
114.4
115.4
82.5
82.4
82.4
82.7
82.9
83.0
83.7
83.8
83.7
84.0
84.1
84.2
82.7
82.6
82.7
82.9
83.3
83.3
84.0
84.0
84.0
84.3
84.3
84.4
May
, J
July
Sepf
Oct r . .
Nov r
Dec ". ...
1
Output as percent of capacity.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
17
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND
SELECTED MANUFACTURES
[1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Materials
Products
Intermediate products
Final products
Consumer goods
Equipment
Period
Total
Total
44.77
112.2
115.2
109.5
114.7
127.3
131.0
132 5
136.8
144 3
139.8
141.1
141.6
141.8
142.5
143.5
144.0
145.0
145.8
145.8
146.5
146 5
146.9
1980 ..
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 p
1987- Dec
1988- Jan
Feb ....
Mar
Apr
May -.f
July ....
Aug
Sept '
Oct r
Nov rp
Dec
1
25.52
102.7
104.1
101.4
109.3
118.0
119.8
124.0
127.8
133.8
129.8
131.2
131.3
131.2
131.9
132.7
133.0
134.2
135.0
134.8
136.7
136.5
137.2
Durable
goods
Nondurable goods
6.89
88.4
89.7
82.9
98.5
112.2
112.5
115.6
120.2
125.3
120.3
121.7
120.6
120.4
123.3
125.6
125.3
125.3
125.7
126.3
129.7
129.5
132.1
18.63
108.1
109.3
108.3
113.3
120.1
122.5
127.1
130.6
137.0
133.3
134.7
135.3
135.1
135.1
135.4
135.8
137.5
138.5
138.0
139.3
139.0
139.1
Total !
Business
19.25
124.7
129.9
120.2
121.7
139.6
145.8
143.6
148.9
158.1
14.34
125.1
127.6
113.6
115.4
134.2
140.2
139.5
144.5
157.4
153.1
154.3
155.3
155.9
156.5
157.7
158.5
159.4
160.1
160.4
159.5
159.8
159.8
149.8
151.2
152.4
153.3
154.6
156.9
158.1
159.3
160.2
160.8
159.9
160.9
161.1
Defense
and
space
equipment
3.67
115.4
119.8
133.0
143.1
156.4
171.4
182.0
188.9
186.2
188.9
190.6
191.0
189.9
187.9
185.5
184.6
184.9
184.9
184.5
184.0
183.3
183.2
Total
12.94
106.9
107.3
101.7
111.2
124.7
129.3
136.2
143.4
151.5
146.5
148.1
149.4
149.9
149.6
150.4
150.0
151.6
152.3
152.9
153.5
154.4
155.2
Construction
supplies
5.95
100.6
98.6
88.3
100.6
114.0
119.2
126.4
131.5
138.6
133.8
136.8
137.7
137.3
137.6
138.8
137.6
138.4
138.1
138.4
139.3
140.9
141.7
Business
supplies
6.99
112.3
114.7
113.1
120.3
133.8
137.9
144.6
153.5
157.4
157.8
159.4
160.7
159.9
160.3
160.6
162.8
164.4
165.2
165.6
165.9
Total
42.28
105.3
107.7
96.7
102.8
114.2
114.3
113.8
118.2
125.2
123.7
123.0
122.1
122.5
123.6
123.9
124.5
126.4
126.5
126.5
127.4
128.3
128.6
Energy
11.69
105.5
104.7
101.2
98.4
103.9
103.3
99.7
99.8
101.5
101.7
101.4
100.6
100.6
101.0
99.5
101.3
102.7
103.2
101.5
101.1
102.6
102.2
Includes oil and gas well drilling and manufactured homes, not shown separately.
[1977 = 100- monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Nondurable manufactures
Durable manufactures
Transportation
equipment
Primary metals
Period
Total
1977 proportion
1980.
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 p
1987: Dec
1988: Jan ..
Feb
Mar .
Apr
May
June
Aug
Sept r
Oct r
Nov r
Dec p
.
.
5.33
90.4
95.0
65.8
73.0
82.3
80.4
75.1
81.3
894
90.6
86.5
86.4
85.1
85.3
89.2
87.5
91 5
90.8
93.1
94.3
92.4
920
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
18
Iron and
steel
Fabricated
metal
products
3.49
86.3
92.5
57.5
66.1
73.4
70.4
63.4
70.6
6.46
101.8
101.6
86.6
89.1
102.6
107.1
108.0
111.0
120.9
81.9
77.8
77.4
74.2
74.5
78.6
74.2
80.2
78.9
81.4
83.1
79.7
115.8
117.1
117.6
118.8
118.8
119.8
120.4
121.7
122.1
122.5
122.6
124.2
124.5
Nonelectrical
machinery
9. 54
123.3
129.8
115.6
118.3
141.8
146.2
145.0
152.7
170.4
161.0
162.9
163.6
164.6
167.2
170.3
171.2
173.1
174.1
174.8
173.2
174.6
174.7
Electrical
machinery
7.15
130.3
134.1
128.4
143.8
170.5
168.3
165.7
172.3
180.1
175.9
177.4
177.8
176.6
178.7
179.1
179.5
181.5
182.2
181.8
182.9
182.3
181.7
Total
9.13
96.9
95.1
87.6
99.2
112.2
122.8
127.5
129.2
132.2
128.1
128.6
128.4
130.0
130.4
133.1
132.8
131.9
131.8
132.7
134.8
135.6
138.0
Motor
vehicles
and
parts
5.25
71.1
71.6
66.8
85.8
104.4
111.9
111.5
111.8
117 3
110.2
109.7
109.3
113.0
114.8
119.6
119.1
116.6
117.5
118.5
121.7
123.0
126.9
Printing
and
publishing
Lumber
and
products
Apparel
products
2.30
92.9
90.1
82.8
100.2
109.1
114.3
124.1
130.3
2.79
97.3
96.1
87.3
95.3
102.7
100.4
103.1
107.4
4.54
115.1
118.6
120.2
129.8
146.5
151.4
160.9
172.1
183 8
8.05
106.4
112.6
103.8
114.0
121.6
126.4
132.0
140.2
7.96
111.4
113.7
114.9
120.4
126.9
130.5
134.4
137.8
133.6
136.3
139.0
137.8
138.0
139.8
136.4
136.6
133.8
133.5
137.2
138.6
107.8
108.7
108.5
108.7
109.2
108.6
109.3
109.4
108.9
109.9
109.5
176.9
177.5
178.7
180.4
181.8
180.7
182.3
184.9
186.7
188.0
187.8
186.7
1861
147.9
140.1
141.2
141.9
141.1
140.3
141.0
141.3
143.3
143.3
143.2
145.2
145.5
cals
and
products
147.9
145.4
146.4
148.9
149.1
150.5
153.4
154.8
155.3
157.0
158.1
Foods
NEW CONSTRUCTION
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Construction contracts 3
Private
Period
Totai new
construction
expenditures
Federal,
State, and
local
Residential
Total
New housing
units
Total '
Commercial
and
industrial 2
Other
Total value
index
(1982 = 100)
Commercial
and industrial
floor spate
(millions of
square feet)
Billions of dollars
252.4
251.7
260.2
246.6
281.3
328.6
355.7
386.1
398.9
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984 ...
1985
1986 .
1987
1988
200.7
193.3
203.6
192.9
227.5
271.0
291.7
314.7
323.8
89.3
69.6
69.4
57.0
94.6
113.8
114.7
133.2
139.9
116.4
100.4
99.2
84.7
125.5
153.8
158.5
187.1
194.8
42.0
46.7
55.0
58.7
53.8
68.6
82.7
78.0
76.5
42.3
46.2
49.4
49.5
48.1
48.5
50.5
49.5
52.5
51.7
58.5
56.5
53.7
53.8
57.7
64.1
71.4
75.0
109
97
100
100
124
136
150
158
162
155
1,059
904
919
690
756
955
1,097
1,016
r
1,019
942
Annual rates
Annual rates
1987- Dec
410.9
331.6
195.8
142.8
77.5
58.4
79.2
157
1,012
1988' Jan
Feb
Mar
395.3
392.5
403.6
396.2
398.5
395.7
404.2
403.2
406.9
407.8
411.1
321.6
317.8
324,3
318.5
320.2
317.7
324.7
326.8
327.2
329.9
330.1
195.2
192.1
195.6
192.0
190.4
188.1
194.2
195.4
196.9
199.0
200.4
140.8
138.0
139.2
138.5
137.7
136.8
136.4
137.1
138.7
140.5
142.7
74.2
73.4
16.4
76.8
78.1
77.5
77.1
76.7
75.1
75.9
75.3
52.2
52.3
52.3
49.7
51.8
52.2
53.3
54.7
55.1
55.0
54.4
73.7
74.7
145
159
154
144
157
165
156
155
151
153
157
169
833
1,103
881
838
840
906
982
918
903
835
823
982
May
July
Sept
Oct »
Nov f
Dec
1
2
3
19.3
77.7
78.3
78.0
79.5
76.4
79.7
77.9
81.0
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Includes residential improvements, not shown separately.
Includes hotels and motels.
F.W. Dodge series.
NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES
[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]
New private homes
New private housing units
Period
Units started, by type of structure
Total
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984.
1985
1986
1987
1988 p
.. .
1,745.1
1,292.2
1,084.2
1,062.2
1,703.0
1,749.5
1,741.8
1,805.4
1,620.5
1,487.2
1 unit
1,194.1
852.2
705.4
662.6
1,067.6
1,084.2
1,072.4
1,179.4
1,146.4
1,080.2
2-4 units
122.0
109.5
91.1
80.0
113.5
121.4
93.4
84.0
65.3
59.2
5 or more units
429.0
330.5
287.7
319.6
522.0
544.0
576.1
542.0
408.7
347.8
Units
authorized
1,551.8
1,190.6
985.5
1,000.5
1,605.2
1,681.8
1,733.3
1,769.4
1,534.8
1,463.0
Units
completed
Homes sold
1,870.8
1,501.6
1,265.7
1,005.5
1,390.3
1,652.2
1,703.3
1,756.4
1,668.8
709
545
436
412
623
639
688
750
671
Homes for
sale at end of
period 1
3
Vacancy rate
for rental
housing units
(percent) 2
397
337
275
253
301
353
346
357
365
5.4
5.4
5.0
5.3
5.7
5.9
6.5
7.3
7.7
7.8
Seasonally adjusted annu al rates
1987- Dec
Feb
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov '
1,399
1,035
51
313
1,372
1,624
586
365
1,382
1,519
1,529
1,584
1,393
1,465
1,477
1,461
1,467
1,533
1,558
1,524
1,016
1,102
1,172
1,093
1,004
1,092
1,068
1,078
1,045
1,136
1,135
1,114
53
59
57
58
52
62
51
61
61
63
70
66
313
358
300
433
337
311
358
322
361
334
353
344
1,248
1,429
1,476
1,449
1,436
1,493
1,420
1,464
1,394
1,516
1,516
1,566
1,550
1,452
1,598
1,665
1,450
1,518
1,529
1,538
T
1,533
1,507
1,422
579
648
664
681
681
718
r
703
714
698
729
671
368
359
372
367
370
367
365
363
362
355
365
:
Seasonally adjusted.
2
Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable
with earlier data,
3
New series beginning March 1979.
8.0
7.7
7.8
7.3
NOTE.—Beginning 1984, units authorized are for 17,000 permit-issuing places; for 1978-83 data
are for 16,000 places.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
19
BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade
In November, manufacturing and trade sales rose 0.5 percent and inventories rose $3.5 billion. In December,
according to advance data, retail sales rose 0.2 percent, following a rise of 0.9 percent in November.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO: SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
BUO
700
^~
r \ ir
^x-—^
600
^.^
200
180
MANUFACTURING AND
TRAC E INVENTOI IES
r^~
240
—
-
—
-
220
—
^__X
—
-
^^^-wy^
-
v'
-
RETAIL INVENTORIES
160
500
." *"
140 f
-
* * / •*
400
—
~
"""\
M \NUFACTUR ING
AC-ID TRADE S^kLES
--"""'"'
A./
120
-""""
-
f — ** ** *
"",.-..-'•
—
•"
-
JETA/t SALE!
100
||M||
300
miitimi
Iltllllllll Ulllllllll Ulllllllll
RATICD*
-
1.80
_ INVENTORY-SALES RATIO
.•'•r-.
1.60
^^f*\^^f*
•^£%^**
200
RETAIL VN.
_^r~*i
^^^
1.40
MANUFACTURING
-
AND TRADE
1.20
llllllllll! imilmii umliiiii mnittm
1984
1986
1985
ItlllllllU
7987
1.00
n 111111 11 1
Ulllllllll
1984
1985
J988
'M n 'i 1 1 1 1 1 M 11 1 II
1986
'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Manufacturing and
trade '
Sales
Sales
2
Inventory-sales ratio 4
Retail
Wholesale
Sales
Inventories 3
1988
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Period
2
III 1 1 Mill 1 1 1 1
)987
Inventories 3
Total
2
Durable
goods
stores
Inventories
3
Total
Durable
goods
stores
Nondurable goods
stores
Manufacturing
and
trade *
60,937
64,783
69,046
72,529
74,907
79,290
134,468
147,581
167,517
181,524
185,996
211,100
61,469
69,066
79,431
88,998
91,085
107,948
72,999
78,515
88,086
92,526
94,911
103,152
1.67
1.56
1.53
1.55
1.55
1.51
1.49
1.44
1.49
1.53
1.56
1.59
80,298
80,586
207,568
211,100
105,800
107,948
101,768
103,152
1.51
1.52
1.63
1.64
80,080
80,413
81,779
81,298
82,415
82,908
83,588
84,502
84,544
85,362
r
85,800
85,697
209,824
208,698
208,822
209,550
211,889
213,952
214,795
218,888
222,198
220,127
221,732
106,377
104,479
103,631
104,349
106,551
107,607
108,020
111,078
114,750
112,525
113,513
103,447
104,219
105,191
105,201
105,338
106,345
106,775
107,810
107,448
107,602
108,219
1.53
1.53
1.50
1.51
1.51
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.51
1.50
1.50
1.63
1.60
1.58
1.59
1.60
1.60
1.60
1.62
1.65
1.61
1.61
Nondurable goods
stores
Retail
Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1987: Nov '
Dec
r
348,747
368,930
408,142
418,605
424,177
451,788
574,491
590,673
644,906
656,165
655,065
707,329
96,290
100,324
113,390
114,645
116,026
126,736
128,196
130,445
142,622
147,145
152,887
165,097
462,248
464,306
700,104
707,329
129,297
128,332
163,461
165,097
464,772
468,675
476,922
477,768
481,874
488,787
489,235
495,482
495,418
501,906
504,304
711,586
714,746
717,249
721,016
725,381
730,916
735,890
743,851
750,261
750,588
754,079
129,720
131,622
132,885
133,015
133,264
136,289
138,195
139,008
139,682
142,429
141,891
168,388
170,632
171,732
173,530
173,418
175,001
177,307
179,165
180,278
181,049
180,977
1988- Jan
Feb
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct r
Nov* 1
Dec p
1
2
3
See page 21 for manufacturing.
Monthly average for year and total for month.
End of period.
20
28,169
32,582
37,836
41,415
44,885
46,592
89,107
97,364
106,882
113,944
119,791
125,882
r
127,456
128,527
128,769
130,121
132,259
131,717
132,833
133,617
134,342
134,759
134,341
136,560
r
137,809
138,025
r
47,158
47,941
48,689
49,708
50,480
50,419
50,418
50,709
50,754
50,257
49,797
51,198
T
52,009
52,328
4
r
Annual data are averages of monthly ratios.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
In November, manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders rose. In December, according
durable goods shipments and new orders rose.
BILLIC)NS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
280
C|_l|pfc*CkJTC
240
200
r^
^-
—"
160
120
DU RABLE GOOI3S
—
JX-J
- -.--
80
"
BILLIC3NS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
480
440 —INVENTORIES
400
360
—A—H
—
—
120
— ---•"-•
"•-*-—\
NONDURABLE GOODS
60
IIUlllllll llllllillll llllllillll llllllillll llllllillll
BILLIC)NS OF DOLLARS1* (RATIO SCALE)
280
240 — NEWC)RDERS
60
~
llllllillll IllllllIHI llllllillll
200 .£-.
•.
»• , „>*
""
—
"
^1
-TOTAL
—
160
- \*£~~-s-
••^
80
DU RABLE GOO Ub
i _,
-. V - *
-v j
•-«*
IT
RATIO.*
iinilrin iiinliiin
^^_
INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO
120
—
DUR ABLE GOOD
160"
\
1
NOb DURABLE GOODS
j^.^S
.
2.00
"'f~' "
r^i
1.80
^._..«-
^1
_
NC NDURABLE (3OODS
1.40
'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Manufacturers' inventories 2
Manufacturers' new orders *
Durable goods
Total
Durable
goods
_
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Manufacturers' shipments 1
Period
•——
IUIAL
200!
.^--*^'
_
•
280 —
to advance data,
Nondurable goods
Durable
goods
Total
Nondurable goods
Total
Total
Capital
goods
industries,
nondefense
Nondurable goods
Manufacturers'
unfilled2
orders
21,661
22,098
26,243
27,067
26,551
29,707
30,655
33,029
33,867
33,819
31,924
33,746
31,522
35,458
36,213
38,808
34,858
34,623
35,785
38,576
83,935
86,522
91,209
91,075
88,497
94,197
97,297
96,372
97,133
97,128
98,736
100,193
101,029
102,648
103,765
104,203
103,348
104,304
105,007
314,270
349,419
372,586
383,181
387,065
421,243
419,126
421,243
425,162
429,513
429,534
433,527
434,148
443,357
446,536
451,830
453,103
457,281
460,626
Manufacturers'
inventory —
shipments
ratio 3
Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986....
1987
1987- Nov
Dec
1988: Jan
Feb
Mar
May
July
Aug
Sept... .
Oct
Nov r
Dec "
1
2
163,350
171,242
187,869
190,016
188,360
199,170
205,495
207,447
206,283
206,932
211,778
213,036
215,777
218,881
216,698
221,715
221,395
222,917
224,604
79,352
84,956
96,623
99,019
99,989
105,291
108,287
111,183
109,125
109,829
112,744
112,521
114,751
116,522
113,122
117,866
118,030
118,439
119,900
124,465
83,998
86,286
91,246
90,996
88,371
93,879
97,208
96,264
97,158
97,103
99,034
100,515
101,026
102,359
103,576
103,849
103,365
104,478
104,704
311,827
312,647
334,767
327,496
316,182
331,132
329,075
331,132
333,374
335,416
336,695
337,936
340,074
341,963
343,788
345,798
347,785
349,412
351,370
Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales.
End of period.
200,825
200,406
218,771
214,066
208,313
216,598
215,557
216,598
218,507
219,913
220,523
221,405
222,948
224,000
225,467
226,600
228,214
229,735
231,413
111,002
112,241
115,996
113,430
107,869
114,534
113,518
114,534
114,867
115,503
116,172
116,531
117,126
117,963
118,321
119,198
119,571
119,677
119,957
3
162,273
174,122
189,791
190,918
188,663
201,966
209,258
209,564
210,202
211,283
211,799
217,029
216,398
228,090
219,877
227,009
222,669
227,095
227,949
78,338
87,600
98,581
99,843
100,166
107,770
111,961
113,192
113,069
114,155
113,063
116,836
115,369
125,442
116,112
122,808
119,321
122,791
122,942
130,846
1.95
1.80
1.74
1.74
1.70
1.62
1.60
1.60
1.62
1.62
1.59
1.59
1.58
1.56
1.59
1.56
1.57
1.57
1.56
Annual data are averages of monthly ratios.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
21
PRICES
PRODUCER PRICES
In December, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.4 percent from its November level. Prices of
finished consumer foods fell 0.1 percent while prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0.7 percent. Capital
equipment prices rose 0.3 percent.
INDEX, 1982 = 100 (RATIO SCALE)
INDEX, 1982= 100 (RATIO SCALE)
120
120
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
FINISHED GOODS PRICES
CONSUMER
FOODS
.-A--:
110
no
CAPITAL EQUIPMENT
,\
f
JU -"" "* ^^.--v
100
100
CONSUMER GOODS
EXCLUDING FOODS
90
90
80
80
Illlllllll
1980
l l l l l l l l l l l
miilinn
1981
1982
iliin
miilmii
l l l l l l 1111
1985
1984
1983
1986
1987
1988
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
[1982 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Finished goods excluding consumer foods
Period
Total
finished
goods
Consumer
foods
Consumer goods
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 p.
1987: Dec
1988: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug '....
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1
88.0
96.1
100.0
101.6
103.7
104.7
103.2
105.4
108.0
105.9
106.2
106.0
106.6
107.0
107.4
107.6
108.4
108.8
109.3
109.3
109.6
110.0
92.4
97.8
100.0
101.0
105.4
104.6
107.3
109.5
112.6
108.6
110.5
109.3
110.2
110.6
111.4
112.4
113.1
113.7
115.1
115.0
115.0
114.9
86.7
95.6
100.0
101.8
103.2
104.6
101.9
104.0
106.5
104.9
104.8
104.9
105.3
105.8
106.1
105.9
106.8
107.2
107.4
107.4
107.7
108.3
Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds.
22
Nondurable
Capital
equipment
85.1
95.8
100.0
100.5
101.1
101.7
93.3
94.9
97.3
96.3
95.5
95.5
96.0
96.9
97.1
96.6
97.9
98.1
97.8
98.1
98.6
99.2
85.8
94.6
100.0
102.8
105.2
107.5
109.7
111.7
114.3
112.3
112.8
113.0
113.2
113.4
113.7
113.9
114.3
114.8
115.7
115.4
115.7
116.1
Total
Total
87.1
96.1
100.0
101.2
102.2
103.3
98.5
100.7
103.1
101.8
101.4
101.4
101.9
102.5
102.8
102.5
103.6
103.9
103.8
103.9
104.3
105.0
Durable
91.0
96.4
100.0
102.8
104.5
106.5
108.9
111.5
113.7
111.8
112.3
112.6
112.9
112.7
113.1
113.3
113.8
114.4
115.1
114.5
114.9
115.5
Crude materials
Intermediate materials
Finished goods
Total
finished
consumer
goods
88.6
96.6
100.0
101.3
103.3
103.8
101.4
103.6
106.2
104.0
104.4
104.0
104.7
105.2
105.6
105.8
106.7
107.1
107.6
107.5
107.9
108.2
Total
Foods
and
feeds '
Other
Total
Foodstuffs
and
feedstuffs
Other
90.3
98.6
100.0
100.6
103.1
102.7
99.1
101.5
107.1
103.8
104.2
104.4
104.9
105.6
106.3
107.2
108.0
108.3
108.7
108.7
109.2
109.7
105.5
104.6
100.0
103.6
105.7
97.3
96.2
99.2
109.5
101.5
102.5
102.1
102.7
103.7
104.4
111.5
116.2
115.1
116.0
115.3
113.2
112.2
89.4
98.2
100.0
100.5
103.0
103.0
99.3
101.7
107.0
103.9
104.3
104.5
105.0
105.7
106.4
107.0
107.5
107.9
108.3
108.4
109.0
109.6
95.3
103.0
100.0
101.3
103.5
95.8
87.7
93.7
95.9
94.7
93.9
94.6
94.2
95.2
96.5
97.4
96.8
97.4
97.2
97.1
94.1
97.4
104.6
103.9
100.0
101.8
104.7
94.8
93.2
96.2
106.0
96.3
97.4
99.5
100.3
100.5
103.2
107.3
108.8
111.4
113.0
114.6
107.7
110.0
84.6
101.8
100.0
100.7
102.2
96.9
81.6
87.9
85.5
89.4
87.5
87.4
86.3
87.8
88.1
86.9
85.1
84.4
83.2
82.1
81.6
85.3
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
In December, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.3 percent, seasonally adjusted (0.2 percent
not seasonally adjusted). The index was 4.4 percent above its year-earlier level.
INDEX, 1982-84= 100 (RATIO SCALE)
INDEX, 1982-84=100 (RATIO SCALE)
130
SEASONALLY
130
ADJUSTED
120
120
no
110
- CONSUMER PRICES—ALL ITEMS -
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
imilinii
l l l i l l l l l l l
1982
1981
1980
1984
1983
60
1985
1987
1986
1988
SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
[1982-84=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
All items
1
Transportation
Housing
Fuel
and
other
utilities
Apparel and
upkeep
Total *
New
cars
Motor
fuel
Medical
care
Energy 2
All
items
less
food,
shelter,
and
energy
7.7
75.4
86.4
94.9
100.2
104.8
106.5
104.1
103.0
104.4
6.3
90.9
95.3
97.8
100.2
102.1
105.0
105.9
110.6
115.4
17.5
83.1
93.2
97.0
99.3
103.7
106.4
102.3
105.4
108.7
4.4
88.4
93.7
97.4
99.9
102.8
106.1
110.6
114.6
116.9
3.3
97.4
108.5
102.8
99.4
97.9
98.7
77.1
80.2
80.9
5.8
74.9
82.9
92.5
100.6
106.8
113.5
122.0
130.1
138.6
7.6
86.0
97.7
99.2
99.9
100.9
101.6
88.2
88.6
89.3
48.5
80.6
88.3
95.1
100.0
105.0
109.0
112.7
117.0
121.9
103.3
103.2
103.7
103.5
104.0
103.9
104.0
104.0
103.8
104.2
105.2
105.5
106.3
112.2
112.3
112.0
114.2
116.5
116.5
116.1
115.4
113.5
115.8
117.9
117.6
117.4
107.4
107.3
107.1
107.2
107.5
108.2
108.4
108.8
109.8
109.9
110.2
110.5
110.6
115.7
115.5
115.8
116.2
116.2
116.4
116.6
116.6
116.9
117.8
118.0
117.8
118.2
81.6
80.4
78.9
79.2
80.1
81.5
80.8
81.3
83.6
82.2
81.4
81.2
79.9
133.5
134.6
135.4
136.0
136.8
137.7
138.3
139.3
139.9
140.7
141.4
142.0
142.7
88.9
88.3
87.8
87.8
88.5
88.9
88.7
89.0
89.8
89.3
89.4
89.6
89.4
118.9
119.5
119.8
120.4
121.1
121.5
121.8
122.2
122.4
123.0
123.8
124.1
124.6
Shelter
Period
Not
seasonally
adjusted
(NSA)
Rel. imp.3....
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
100.0
82 4
90.9
96.5
996
103 9
107 6
109.6
113 6
118.3
1987: Dec....
1988: Jan
Feb....
Mar....
Apr. ...
May ...
June ..
July...
Aug ...
Sept...
Oct
Nov....
Dec....
115.4
115.7
116.0
116.5
117.1
117.5
118.0
118.5
119.0
119.8
120.2
120.3
120.5
Seasonally
adjusted
115.5
115.9
116.1
116.7
117.2
117.6
118.0
118.5
119.0
119.4
119.9
120.2
120.6
Food
Total '
Total
Renters '
costs
(Dec.
1982 =
100)
Homeowners'
costs
(Dec.
1982 =
100)
7.9
19.7
16.1
86.8
93.6
97.4
99.4
103.2
105.6
109.0
113.5
118.2
42.5
81.1
90.4
96.9
99.5
103.6
107.7
110.9
114.2
118.5
27.8
81.0
90.5
96.9
99.1
104.0
109.8
115.8
121.3
127.1
103.0
108.6
115.4
121.9
128.1
133.6
102.5
107.3
113.1
119.4
124.8
131.1
0.2
82.4
90.7
96.4
99.9
103.7
106.5
107.9
111.8
114.7
115.3
115.6
115.3
115.7
116.5
117.0
117.7
118.9
119.6
120.5
120.7
120.8
121.2
115.9
116.4
123.8
124.5
125.1
125.7
125.8
126.2
126.7
127.2
127.9
128.1
128.4
128.8
129.3
129.5
130.9
131.5
133.0
132.6
132.8
133.3
133.8
134.4
133.6
133.9
133.8
134.6
127.9
128.4
129.0
129.3
129.6
130.0
130.6
131.2
131.8
132.5
132.8
133.5
133.9
113.3
113.7
1 14.3
113.3
115.3
114.3
114.7
114.5
115.0
115.3
115.0
115.4
115.8
116.8
117.2
117.5
117.8
118.2
118.6
118.9
119.2
119.6
120.0
120.5
1
Includes items not shown separately.
2
Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oii, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc.
also included through 1982.
3
Relative importance, December 1987.
Maintenance
and
repairs
(NSA)
NOTE.—Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs
and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods.
Data beginning 1987 and 1988 calculated on a revised basis.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
23
CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSAJ
Period
Ct ange from preceding period
Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate
Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate
Consumer goods
Consumer goods
Consumer goods
Tola]
finished
goods
Capital
equipment
Excluding foods
Foods
Total
finished
goods
Excluding
foods
Foods
Capital
equipment
Total
finished
goods
Capital
equipment
Excluding
foods
Foods
Change
from
year
earlier,
total
finished
goods
NSA
Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA
11.8
7.1
3.6
.6
1.7
1.8
-2.3
2.2
4.0
1980.
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 *
7.5
1.5
2.0
2.3
3.5
.6
2.8
-.2
5.7
13.4
9.2
4.1
1.6
2.1
1.0
-1.4
2.1
2.5
11.4
9.2
3.9
2.0
1.8
2.7
2.1
1.3
3.5
14.1
8.6
4.2
-.9
.8
2.1
-6.6
4.1
3.1
/
Change, month to month
1987- Dec
1988:
-0.3
Jan
-1.3
.3
— .2
.6
.4
.4
2
.7
.4
.5
0
.3
.4
Feb
Mar
May
July
Sept r
Oct
Novr
Dec
1.7
— 1.1
.8
.4
.9
.6
.5
1.2
-.1
0
-.1
-1.9
0.1
0.2
— .4
0
.5
.6
.3
.4
2
.2
.2
.3
.2
.4
.4
.8
-.3
.3
.3
0
1.1
.3
-.1
.1
.4
.7
.4
-.8
2.7
3.0
5.4
3.8
5.3
5.3
6.5
3.4
3.0
2.6
-5.7
-0.8
2.2
-2.5
6.0
.4
7.9
8.2
9.4
8.5
10.0
6.9
4.7
-.7
-1.6
-1.2
.4
4.4
5.6
2.4
4.4
4.3
5.2
1.2
1.5
4.7
-0.7
-3.8
1.0
.4
-.4
0
1.3
2.6
7.1
4.8
8.2
9.1
8.1
6.6
4.5
.9
2.9
3.3
3.2
2.1
2.5
2.5
3.2
3.9
6.5
3.9
3.2
1.4
0
.4
1.7
2.3
3.2
4.2
5.4
5.1
4.3
4.1
4.5
3.0
1.6
2.2
.8
-.6
-.2
1.4
2.2
1.4
4.4
5.0
3.8
2.8
2.9
4.9
2.2
2.0
1.2
2.5
2.9
2.9
2.7
3.2
4.5
3.6
3.5
3.9
2.2
1.9
1.9
1.8
2.0
2.1
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.9
3.2
4.0
iouree: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]
Housing
Transportation
Shelter
Period
All
items 1
Food
Total '
Total '
Renters'
costs
Homeowners'
costs
Fuel
and
other
utilities
Apparel
and
upkeep
New
cars
Total '
Motor
fuei
Medica!
care
Energy2
All
items
less
food,
shelter,
and
energy
Addendum: All items, percent change
(annual rate)
From
previous
quarter 3
From
3
months
earlier
From
6
months
earlier
From
year
earlier
NSA
Change, December to December, NSA
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
12.5
8.9
3.8
3.8
3.9
3.8
1.1
4.4
4.4
10.2
4.3
3.1
2.7
3.8
2.6
3.8
3.5
5.2
13.7
10.2
3.6
3.5
4.3
4.3
1.7
3.7
4.0
15.0
9.9
2.4
4.7
5.2
6.0
4.6
4.8
4.5
5.1
5.9
6.3
5.0
3.9
3.9
4.5
5.1
5.9
4.6
5.3
4.7
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.6
0.5
0.6
.3
_2
.5
.4
.3
.3
.4
.4
.3
.4
.3
.3
.3
-.3
.3
.7
.4
.6
1.0
.6
.8
.2
.4
.3
.3
.3
.3
.3
.3
.3
.3
.3
.3
.4
.6
.5
.5
.1
.3
.4
.4
.6
2
.2
.3
.4
1.1
.5
1.1
-.3
.2
.4
.4
.4
-.6
.2
— .1
.6
.4
.5
.2
.2
.3
.5
.5
.5
.5
.2
.5
.3
13.8
14.4
9.7
1.8
4.2
1.8
-5.6
1.6
2.9
6.8
3.5
1.6
2.9
2.0
2.8
.9
4.8
4.7
14.6
10.9
1.8
3.9
3.1
2.6
-5.9
6.1
3.0
7.4
18.8
6.8
9.4
1.5 -6.5
3.4 -1.7
2.5 -2.4
3.4
3.1
5.9 -30.7
18.7
1.8
21
2.1
9.9
12.5
11.0
6.4
6.1
'6.8
7.7
5.8
6.9
18.0
11.9
1.3
-.5
.2
1.8
-19.7
8.2
5
— 1.7
0.4
-0.8
-1.5
-1.9
.4
1.1
1.7
-.9
.6
2.8
-1.7
-1.0
2
-1.6
.8
.6
.4
.6
.7
.4
.7
.4
.6
.5
.4
.5
13.5
10.3
6.2
3.2
4.3
3.6
1.9
3.6
4.1
9.8
9.4
6.1
5.0
4.3
3.7
3.3
3.8
Change, month to month
1987:
Dec
1988:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1
2
.1
.3
-0.1
-.1
.5
-.2
.5
-.1
.1
0
-.2
.4
1.0
.3
.8
-0.8
-0.3
.1
-.3
2.0
2.0
0
-.3
-.6
-1.6
2.0
1.8
-.3
_2
Includes items not shown separately.
Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.--and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc.,
ftlso included through 1982.
24
0
2
.3
.3
-.1
2
.1
.3
.7
2
.4
.9
.1
.3
.3
.1
0
.2
.2
0
.3
.8
.2
-.2
.3
3
— .7
-.6
0
.8
.5
-.2
.3
.9
-.6
.1
.2
2
0
3.9
.5
.3
.5
.6
.3
.2
.3
.2
.5
.7
.2
.4
3.2
4.9
T.s
4.1
Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quartei
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
3.2
3.6
4.4
3.2
2.8
"4.2
4.6
5.3
4.5
45
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.1
4.1
3.7
3.2
3.7
3.9
4.0
4.4
4.5
5.1
4.7
4.7
4.5
4.5
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.0
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.4
PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received by farmers in January rose 1.4 percent from their December level. Prices paid by farmers in
January were 1.2 percent above their October level.
INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE)
INDEX, 1977 = 100 (RATIO SCALE)
180
180
160
160
PRICES PAID
140
140
120
120
PRICES RECEIVED
100
100
80
80
60,LUI
60
Illllilllll
RATIO^
140
60
60
1981
I/RATIO Of INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX Of PRICES PAID.
COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
[1977=100]
Prices paid by farmers
Prices received by farmers
Period
All farm
products
Livestock and
products
Crops
134
121
128
138
120
107
106
125
r
l!4
109
Dec
139
133
135
142
128
123
127
138
131
130
130
130
134
r
!38
r
!42
144
144
143
144
145
l!2
117
r
!29
r
!36
r
!36
135
133
136
136
143
145
141
146
136
138
146
150
147
149
148
148
151
147
147
152
153
152
151
154
1989- Jan
147
137
157
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1988: Jan
Feb
Mar
June
July
Sept
Oct
Nov
1
r
r
lll
Includes items not shown separately.
2
Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes,
and wage rates. See also footnote 3.
3
Beginning March 1986, prices paid by farmers are available only for first month in quarter, and
for each month the received/paid ratio is based on latest data available.
All commodities,
services,
interest, taxes,
and wage rates l
Production
items, interest,
taxes, and wage
rates
150
159
161
r
!64
r
!62
159
r
!61
170
165
' (3)
(3)
168
(3)
(3)
172
(3)
(3)
r
!73
(3)
(3)
175
151
159
159
r
!61
r
!56
150
r
!51
160
155
(3)
(3)
r
!58
(33)
()
162
(33)
()
r
!63
(33)
()
165
Production
items
148
153
152
155
151
r
!47
147
157
152
(3)
(3)
155
(3)
(3)
r
!59
(3)
(3)
162
(3)
(3)
163
Ratio
2
92
84
84
r
87
79
77
r
79
81
79
79
79
77
80
82
r
83
84
84
r
83
83
r
84
84
NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes
have been converted to a 1977 — 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
25
MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES
Growth in Ml accelerated in December, while growth in the broader aggregates slowed.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
4,000
4,000
3,600
3,600
M3
3,200
3,200
2,800
2,800
2,400
2,400
2,000
2,000
M2
1,600
1,600
1,200
1,200
600
Ml
400
imihmi
1980
1983
1982
1986
• AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
1987
1988
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE. BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
[Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Period
19801981:
19821983:
19841985:
19861987:
1988-
Dec
Dec.
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Doc *
1988: Jan
Fob
Mar
May
July
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dee "
Ml
M2
M3
Sum of currency,
demand deposits,
travelers' checks,
and other
checkable
deposits (OCDs)
Ml plus overnight
RPs and
Eurodollars,
MMMF balances
(general purpose
and broker/dealer),
MMDAs, and
savings and small
time deposits
M2 plus large
time deposits,
term RPs, term
Eurodollars, and
institution-onlv
MMMF balances
412.2
439.1
476.4
522.1
551.9
620.1
725.4
750.8
787.8
1,633.1
1,795.5
1,954.0
2,185.2
2,363.6
2,562.6
2,807.7
2,901.0
3,067.4
758.8
759.5
762.9
770.1
770.2
776.5
782.3
782.5
r
782.4
783.5
' 783.7
787.8
r
2,925.3
2,946.2
2,967.5
2,990.9
3,002.2
3,016.5
3,025.8
3,031.6
' 3,034.2
3,037.5
' 3,054.9
3,067.4
1
Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts.
2
Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at an annual rate.
26
L
M3 plus
other liquid
assets
1,990.8
2,236.5
2,443.2
2,693.2
2,978.3
3,196.4
3,490.8
' 3,664.4
3,904.8
2,327.6
2,599.0
2,852.9
3,154.4
3,519.4
3,825.9
4,134.3
r
4,329.3
T
r
3,690.7
3,722.9
3,748.3
3,772.0
3,789.4
3,814.0
3,836.1
3,848.3
3,853.6
r
3,868.8
' 3,890.6
3,904.8
4,367.3
4,398.7
4,425.5
4,469.5
4,501.9
4,518.5
4,561.6
4,582.3
r
4,589.1
r
4,608.7
4,643.6
Debt
Debt of
domestic
nonfinancial
sectors
(monthly
average) 1
Percent change from year or 6
months earlier 2
Ml
M2
3,868.2
4,244.3
4,627.9
5,161.1
5,910.1
6,719.9
7,576.8
8,282.2
6.8
6.5
8.5
9.6
5.7
12.4
17.0
3.5
4.9
8.9
9.9
8.8
11.8
8.2
8.4
9.6
3.3
5.7
8,327.5
8,386.9
8,452.1
8,513.2
8,572.0
8,631.1
r
8,690.7
'8,757.1
r
8,821.7
r
8,877.7
8,942.7
4.1
3.5
4.2
3.7
4.7
7.0
6.3
6.1
5.2
3.5
3.5
2.9
4.8
5.4
6.1
6.8
7.4
8.1
7.0
5.9
4.5
3.1
3.5
3.4
NOTE.—See p. 27 for components.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
M3
Debt
10.2
12.3
9.2
10.2
10.6
7.3
9.2
5.0
6.6
9.7
9.7
9.0
11.5
14.5
13.7
12.8
9.3
r
9.4
9.4
9.3
9.0
8.5
8.6
8.9
r
9.0
'8.9
r
8.7
8.8
5.8
6.5
7.1
7.1
7.2
8.3
8.0
6.9
5.7
5.2
r
5.4
4.8
COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]
Cur-
Period
rency
Demand
deposits
Other
checkable
deposits
(OCDs)
Overnight
repurchase
agreements
(RPs),
net, plus
overnight
Eurodollars
Money market
mutual fund
balances
General
purpose
and
broker/
dealer
NSA
NSA
1980: Dec
1981: Dec
1982: Dec
1983: Dec
1984: Dec
1985: Dec
1986: Dec
1987: Dec
1988: Dec p ..
1988:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
.r
May
June
July
V
Aug
Sept
Octr
Nov r
Dec p
115.3
122.5
132.6
146.3
156.1
167.7
180.4
196.5
211.7
261.4
231.4
234.1
238.6
244.1
267.2
303.3
288.0
31.4
80.9
105.4
132.3
146.4
179.2
235.2
259.3
288.1
280.5
28.3
35.9
38.8
53.8
56.3
70.2
78.4
77.9
79.5
198.4
199.3
200.9
202.5
203.6
204.9
206.3
207.2
208.5
209.5
210.3
211.7
289.9
287.8
287.9
290.2
287.4
289.9
290.6
290.1
288.4
288.6
286.9
288.1
263.3
265.0
266.9
270.1
271.9
274.4
278.2
278.0
278.2
278.0
279.1
280.5
82.9
78.2
75.0
76.1
80.8
81.0
77.8
80.1
77.6
76.0
74.9
79.5
r
Money
market
deposit
accounts
(MMDAs)
Institution
only
Savings
deposits
Small
denomination
time
deposits 1
Large
denomination
time
deposits !
NSA
NSA
Term
repurchase
agreements
(RPs)
Term
Eurodollars
(net)
NSA
NSA
Q,,.,
oavm
£?
bonds
Shortterm
Treasury
securities
Bankers'
acceptances
omC nm
mercia
paper
61.6
150.6
185.2
138.2
167.5
176.5
208.0
221.1
240.8
15.2
38.0
51.1
43.2
62.7
64.5
84.4
89.6
87.6
0.0
.0
43.2
379.2
416.8
513.6
572.5
525.2
502.0
400.2
728.4
343.9 822.9
356.8 850.5
305.5 783.6
285.4
883.3
301.4 879.5
370.7 853.2
414.3
913.1
431.6 1,027.1
260.0
302.5
326.7
327.1
416.9
436.4
439.2
484.7
534.8
34.0
36.0
34.5
51.8
61.9
65.6
84.0
108.9
122.8
50.3
67.5
81.7
91.5
82.9
76.1
84.9
r
90.8
103.8
72.3
67.8
68.0
71.1
74.2
79.3
91.6
100.2
133.5
149.4
183.5
211.9
260.9
301.2
284.2
260.1
32.1
40.0
44.5
45.1
45.7
42.5
37.8
45.7
113.6
133.1
160.3
206.5
229.9
258.9
225.2
231.0
234.8
235.8
231.8
228.9
229.6
230.8
230.8
231.2
238.0
240.8
94.4
98.7
97.4
91.9
90.0
86.3
84.8
84.0
83.7
84.6
87.4
87.6
524.1
522.6
524.7
523.3
519.6
522.3
521.1
517.0
510.7
506.8
505.9
502.0
414.4 924.6
416.2
941.5
419.8 953.5
422.7 964.8
425.1 972.0
429.0 974.9
432.0 978.5
434.2 985.7
997.4
433.4
431.2 1,009.9
433.6 1,019.0
431.6 1,027.1
482.6
488.6
490.3
492.1
495.4
501.7
509.1
515.0
523.7
530.6
532.0
534.8
109.6
113.9
111.7
114.3
120.6
123.8
125.0
123.1
121.5
123.9
126.6
122.8
85.4
85.5
90.0
89.1
91.8
93.1
96.2
102.3
101.4
99.1
102.2
103.8
101.4
102.6
103.5
104.6
105.4
106.1
106.9
107.4
107.7
108.3
108.4
262.5
258.3
252.8
263.5
265.1
256.6
266,5
273.1
278.0
281.3
282.9
43.6
40.9
40.6
41.2
40.9
40.6
40.6
41.1
41.9
41.3
40.8
269.0
274.1
280.3
288.2
301.1
301.2
311.5
312.5
307.9
309.2
321.0
1
Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of !ess than
$100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively.
98.8
105.3
NOTE,—-Travelers checks of nonbank issuers are a component of money stock hut are not shown
here.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE
[Averages of daily figures; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Borrowings of depository institutions
from the Federal Reserve (NSA)
Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements
Reserves of depository institutions
Period
Total
1980- Dec
1981:
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
1986:
1987:
1988:
1988-
Dec
Dec
Dec....
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec"
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec p
31,261
32,841
35,247
37,549
40,959
47,255
57,456
58,722
60,976
59,458
59,573
59,760
60,374
60,365
60,637
61,238
61,090
60,995
60,956
61,055
60,976
Nonhorrowed
Nonborrowed plus
extended
credit
Required
Monetary
base
29,571
32,204
34,613
36,775
37,773
45,937
56,629
57,944
59,261
29,574
32,353
34,799
36,777
40,377
46,436
56,932
58,428
60,505
30,747
32,521
34,747
36,988 •
40,106
46,198
56,087
57,693
59,936
150,642
158,870
171,192
187,005
200,449
218,255
240,799
257,928
274,821
58,376
59,177
58,009
57,380
57,787
57,555
57,798
57,849
58,156
58,657
58,194
59,261
58,748
59,382
59,487
60,004
59,894
60,108
60,336
60,502
60,215
60,438
60,516
60,505
58,163
58,440
58,832
59,515
59,325
59,750
60,231
60,137
60,024
59,894
59,936
59,936
260,721
262,019
263,315
265,809
266,924
268,309
270,626
271,200
272,446
273,731
274,473
275,821
Total
1,690
636
634
774
3,186
1,318
827
777
1,716
1,082
396
1,752
2,993
2,578
3,083
3,440
3,241
2,839
2,299
2,861
1,716
Seasonal
116
54
33
96
113
56
38
93
130
59
75
119
146
246
311
376
423
421
332
186
130
Extended
credit
3
148
186
2
2,604
499
303
483
1,244
372
205
1,478
2,624
2,107
2,554
2,538
2,653
2,059
1,781
2,322
1,244
Source: Board of Governors of ihc Federal Reserve Svstem.
27
BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES
Commercial and industrial loans rose 0.1 percent in December, following a decline of 0.3 percent in November.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
2,400
2,400
ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS
2,000
2,000
"TOTAL
1,600
1,600
1,200
1,200
LOANS AND LEASES
800
800
400
400
U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES
200
200
160
160
120
-
imiliim
Illlll
198C
1984
1983
1982
1981
120
OTHER SECURITIES
I II I I l l l l l III I l l i l l i l l l l l II
1985
1986
Illlll
1988
1987
" SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1]
All commercial banks
Loans and leases
Period
Total
loans and
securities 2
U.S.
Government
securities
Other
securities
Total
2
Commercial
and
industrial
Real
estate
Individual
Security
Nonbank
financial
institutions
Agricultural
1980:
1981:
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
1986:
1987:
1988:
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec"....
1,239.1
1,307.5
1,401.3
1,553.4
1,722.9
1,908.6
2,089.9
2,233.0
2,398.3
170.6
179.3
201.7
259.1
260.0
270.5
309.3
335.0
360.9
154.7
160.9
165.7
170.6
142.6
181.2
196.1
194.5
190.9
913.9
967.3
1,033.9
1,123.7
1,320.4
1,456.9
1,584.5
1,703.5
1,846.5
325.7
355.4
392.6
414.1
472.8
499.4
535.6
562.4
599.9
262.7
284.2
300.0
331.0
376.6
425.9
494.0
588.4
663.2
179.2
182.5
188.2
212.9
253.6
293.7
314.4
327.8
353.6
17.9
21.3
25.2
27.8
33.9
42.0
39.1
33.4
36.9
29.3
29.9
31.2
30.5
31.4
32.6
35.0
31.8
29.8
31.6
33.1
36.2
39.2
40.1
36.1
31.6
29.5
30.8
1988:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec"....
2,244.8
2,264.1
2,281.3
2,304.7
2,328.5
2,348.4
2,360.8
2,374.9
2,373.6
2,387.5
2,398.1
2,398.3
336.4
336.4
340.2
343.8
346.5
350.5
348.0
350.5
352.5
355.1
356.8
360.9
192.0
193.7
195.7
196.6
196.1
196.5
196.8
196.4
194.2
195.4
194.8
190.9
1,716.5
1,734.0
1,745.4
1,764.3
1,786.0
1,801.5
1,815.9
1,827.9
1,826.8
1,836.9
1,846.5
1,846.5
565.2
569.3
568.6
578.1
586.3
592.4
598.3
599.4
597.1
600.9
599.2
599.9
593.7
599.2
604.9
611.3
618.6
625.0
631.4
638.7
644.7
652.0
659.2
663.2
329.8
333.0
337.0
340.4
342.8
344.4
345.3
347.0
349.1
349.6
350.8
353.6
36.5
42.1
41.2
r
.39.7
r
40.0
r
39.5
r
38.9
r
40.3
r
36.6
r
38.5
r
37.6
36.9
31.4
31.8
31.2
30.4
30.9
30.6
31.0
30.8
29.9
29.8
29.8
29.8
29.6
29.5
29.3
29.4
29.6
r
29.6
29.6
r
29.5
r
29.5
r
29.7
r
30.3
30.8
State
and
political
subdivisions
0.0
.0
.0
3.3
45.8
56.4
58.1
52.2
46.7
Foreign
official
institutions
Lease
financing
receivables
23.8
17.9
14.6
13.3
11.1
9.6
9.6
7.5
7.3
11.5
7.2
5.9
9.4
7.9
6.0
5.9
5.3
5.6
10.9
12.7
13.3
13.7
16.1
19.0
22.4
24.6
28.1
7.6
7.4
7.8
8.3
5.4
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.0
5.0
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.4
5.6
25.1
25.3
25.4
25.7
26.0
26.5
27.2
27.3
27.7
28.1
28.1
28.1
Foreign
banks
r
51.7
51.0
r
50.1
r
49.6
r
49.4
r
49.2
r
48.9
r
48.3
r
48.1
r
48.9
r
48.2
46.7
r
r
7.9
7.9
8.2
8.1
r
7.3
r
8.1
7.6
7.3
of States and political subdivisions are included in loans rather than in other securities.
2
Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
28
Other
21.4
23.1
26.6
31.7
31.2
36.0
38.7
40.5
44.7
r
40.4
40.4
r
44.8
r
46.3
r
49.3
r
51.2
r
52.1
r
53.4
r
51.6
r
46.7
r
49.9
44.7
r
SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM
CORPORATE BUSINESS
NONFINANCIAL
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Uses
Sources
External
Period
Total
Internal
Credit market funds
l
Total
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1987: I
II
III
IV
1988- I
II
nip
Loans and
short-term
paper
Securities
and
mortgages
Total
Capital
Total
Other 2
tures 3
Increase in
financial
assets
Discrepancy
(sources less
uses)
326.0
324.8
375.8
298.5
420.3
492.6
459.2
492.2
474.1
197.6
200.1
239.5
242.3
285.7
336.3
352.3
357.5
352.8
128.4
124.7
136.4
56.2
134.6
156.3
106.9
134.8
121.3
60.1
70.7
90.7
49.8
77.9
95.8
50.9
193.1
59.8
9.0
34.5
29.4
10.3
52.6
51
5.0
35.4
29.4
51.1
36.2
61.2
39.5
25.3
100.9
46.0
57.6
30.3
68.2
54.0
45.7
6.4
56.8
60.5
55.9
41.7
61.5
368.1
342.1
383.6
303.5
385.8
502.7
435.3
454.3
436.6
238.3
243.7
286.5
256.5
270.7
370.6
342.3
331.5
361.0
129.8
98.4
97.0
47.0
115.1
132.1
93.0
122.8
75.6
-42.1
-17.3
-7.7
-4.9
34.5
-10.1
23.9
37.9
37.5
421.7
474.1
476.5
524.0
346.8
347.9
358.3
358.1
74.9
126.2
118.2
165.9
14.2
76.4
60.3
88.1
75.2
12.6
28.1
1.7
-61.0
63.8
32.2
86.4
60.7
49.7
57.8
77.8
388.0
436.0
446.4
476.0
341.1
345.6
350.9
406.3
47.0
90.5
95.4
69.7
33.7
38.1
30.1
48.1
453.7
486.8
471.2
359.9
363.6
359.7
93.8
123.2
111.5
89.9
73.9
59.1
9.8
-3.6
1.6
80.1
77.5
57.5
3.9
49.3
52.4
401.5
440.0
461.4
385.4
385.1
394.6
16.1
54.9
66.8
52.2
46.7
9.9
1
Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capita! consumption adjustments), capital
.•onsumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained
a
™
.
2 ,
Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S.
3
Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S.
Government.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT
[Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted]
Net change in installment credit outstanding 1
Installment credit outstanding (end of period)
Period
Automobile
Revolving
296,483
297,566
310,682
323,536
367,868
442,538
517,755
571,833
613,022
112,475
111,936
118,956
124,218
143,799
173,704
209,636
246,109
267,180
608,728
613,022
264,474
267,180
53,357
54,894
60,838
66,243
78,667
100,212
122,013
136,381
159,307
156,425
159,307
619,258
624,294
629,485
633,336
636,318
644,372
647,993
653,317
653,319
657,226
661,705
269,883
273,133
276,762
278,567
279,418
282,254
283,359
285,560
284,782
286,107
287,499
162,065
163,462
165,643
167,356
169,154
172,809
174,927
177,568
178,675
181,277
184,340
Total
1979:
1980:
1981:
19821983:
1984:
1985:
1986:
1987:
1987:
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Nov
Dec
1988: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct r
Nov p
1
For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for nonthly data, change frt
month.
Mobile
home
18,207
18,621
20,302
22,833
23,704
25,795
26,834
26,883
25,957
26,604
25,957
25,926
25,857
25,732
25,764
25,703
25,852
25,882
25,915
25,746
25,776
25,849
Other
Total
Automobile
112,444
112,115
110,586
110,242
121,698
142,827
159,272
162,460
160,578
34,507
1,083
13,116
12,854
44,332
74,670
75,217
54,078
41,189
13,736
-539
7,020
5,262
19,581
29,905
35,932
36,473
21,071
161,225
160,578
161,384
161,842
161,348
161,649
162,043
163,456
163,825
164,274
164,116
164,065
164,016
1,802
4,294
651
2,706
2,703
3,250
3,629
1,805
851
2,836
1,106
2,201
-779
1,325
1,392
6,236
5,036
5,191
3,851
2,982
8,054
3,621
5,324
2
3,906
4,479
Revolving
8,155
1,537
5,944
5,405
12,424
21,545
21,801
14,368
22,926
1,229
2,882
2,758
1,397
2,181
1,713
1,798
3,655
2,118
2,641
1,107
2,602
3,063
Mobile
home
1,286
414
1,681
2,531
871
2,091
1,039
49
-926
-94
-647
-31
-69
-125
32
-61
149
29
33
-169
30
73
Other
11,330
-329
-1,529
— 344
11,456
21,129
16,445
3,188
-1,882
16
-647
806
458
-494
301
394
1,413
368
449
-158
-50
-49
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstem.
29
INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS
Interest rates rose in January.
PERCENT PER ANNUM
PERCENT PER ANNUM
)UNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Percent per annum]
U.S. Treasury security yields
Period
3-month bills
(new issues) 1
Constant maturities
3-year
2
10-year
High-grade
municipal
bonds
(Standard3 &
Poor's)
Corporate
Aaa bonds
(Moody's) 4
Prime
commercial
paper,
6 months l
Discount rate
(N.Y. F.E.
5
Bank)
Prime rate
charged 5by
banks
New-home
mortgage
yields
(FHLBB) e
14.44
12.92
10.45
11.89
9.64
7.06
7.68
8.26
13.91
13.00
11.10
12.44
10.62
7.68
8.39
8.85
11.23
11.57
9.47
10.15
9.18
7.38
7.73
7.76
14.17
13.79
12.04
12.71
11.37
9.02
9.38
9.71
14.76
11.89
8.89
10.16
8.01
6.39
6.85
7.68
13.41
11.02
8.50
8.80
7.69
6.33
5.66
6.20
18.87
14.86
10.79
12.04
9.93
8.33
8.22
9.32
14.70
15.14
12.57
12.38
11.55
10.17
9.31
9.19
Nov ....
Dec
1989- Jan v
5.90
5.69
5.69
5.92
6.27
6.50
6.73
7.02
7.23
7.34
7.68
8.09
8.29
7.87
7.38
7.50
7.83
8.24
8.22
8.44
8.77
8.57
8.43
8.72
9.11
9.20
8.67
8.21
8.37
8.72
9.09
8.92
9.06
9.26
8.98
8.80
8.96
9.11
9.09
7.81
7.55
7.80
7.91
8.01
7.86
7.87
7.86
7.71
7.54
7.58
7.66
6.92
6.58
6.64
6.92
7.31
7.53
7.90
8.36
8.23
8.24
8.55
8.97
9.02
6.00-6.00
6.00-6.00
6.00-6.00
6.00-6.00
6.00-6.00
6.00-6.00
6.00-6.00
6.00-6.50
6.50-6.50
6.50-6.50
6.50-6.50
6.50-6.50
8.75-8.75
8.75-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-9.00
9.00-9.00
9.00-9.50
9.50-10.00
10.00-10.00
10.00-10.00
10.00-10.50
10.50-10.50
9.10
9.12
9.15
9.13
8.95
9.26
9.17
9.06
9.26
9.10
9.43
9.39
7.41
9.88
9.40
9.39
9.67
9.90
9.86
9.96
10.11
9.82
9.51
9.45
9.57
9.63
6.50-6.50
10.50-10.50
Week ended:
1989: Jan
7
14
21
28
Feb 4
8.24
8.36
8.30
8.26
8.33
9.30
9.27
9.14
9.11
9.24
9.18
9.02
8.97
7.54
7.45
7.34
7.29
9.66
9.69
9.61
9.56
8.99
9.04
9.04
9.02
6.50-6.50
6.50-6.50
6.50-6.50
6.50-6.50
6.50-
10.50-10.50
10.50-10.50
10.50-10.50
10.50-10.50
10.50-
14.029
10.686
8.63
9.58
7.48
5.98
5.82
6.69
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 ...
1986
1987
1988
1988: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July...
Sept..
Oct
1
!
Bank-discount basis.
Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department.
2
4
Series excludes public utility issues for January 17, 1984 through October 11, 1984 due to lack
of appropriate issues.
30
, ,urre:
;. f a,su,r>'' ° " r °
e e e r a eserve ys
Home Loan bank Hoard, Moody s Investors hervice, and standard & roor s Corporation.
COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS
Stock prices rose in January.
INDEX, DEC 31, 1965 = 50 (RATIOSCALE)
INDEX , DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 (RATIO SCALE)
240
220
200
180
^
/ \
160
COMPOSITE STOCK PRIC E INDEX
(NYSE)
140
120
240
220
200
180
160
\ s~^f~~'^'
140
120
r-^~/
100
y —|
80
60
'
/
\
.
__,,
100
^-^/"~
80
^~^}
60
^J
40
\ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \
nintnm
1982
1983
1981
\
\\
\ I 1 1 I I 1
1
iiiiiliini 1 1 1 1 \ \ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i : i
1984
1985
\\ \ \ \ \ 1 1 1 1 1
1987
1986
40
1 1 1 ! 1 I | \ \ \\
1988
1989
PERC:ENT
PERC ENT
20
20
EAR MINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS
15
10
15
(S&P)
p\ ^>~.
J_
~^~
—"
10
^
.
r
5
0
/-j
1
1
1
1 1 1
1981
1
1
1
! 1984
1983
1982
SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE A
I i>
ND STANDARD & POC
1
1
1
1
1985
1
1
1986
1
1
1
1987
—
5
1
1
1
1988
COUNCIL OF
R'S CORPORATION
1
Period
Composite
Industrial
Transportation
0
1989
Common stock5yields
(percent)
O)2
Utility
1
ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Common stock prices:
New York Stock Exchange indexes (1
1
Finance
Dow-Jones
industrial
average 3
Standard &
Poor's
composite
index (194143 = 10) 4
Dividendprice ratio
1981
1982
1983
1984....
1985
1986
1987
1988
74.02
68.93
92.63
92.46
108.09
136.00
161.70
149.91
85.44
78.18
107.45
108.01
123.79
155.85
195.31
180.95
72.61
60.41
89.36
85.63
104.11
119.87
140.39
134.12
38.91
39.75
47.00
46.44
56.75
71.36
74.30
71.77
73.52
71.99
95.34
89.28
114.21
147.20
146.48
127.26
932.92
884.36
1,190.34
1,178.48
1,328.23
1,792.76
2,275.99
2,060.82
128.05
119.71
160.41
160.46
186.84
236.34
286.83
265.79
5.20
5.81
4.40
4.64
4.25
3.49
3.08
3.64
1988: Jan
Feb
Mar ...
Apr
140.55
145.13
149.88
148.46
144.99
152.72
152.12
149.25
151.47
156.36
152.67
155.35
168.47
173.44
181.57
180.88
176.02
184.92
184.09
179.72
182.18
188.58
183.79
187.75
121.20
126.09
135.15
133.43
127.63
136.02
136.49
132.53
136.27
141.93
138.60
r
144.07
70.01
72.89
71.16
69.40
68.65
72.25
71.50
70.67
71.83
74.19
73.83
74.81
119.40
124.36
125.27
121.67
120.35
129.04
129.99
130.77
133.15
134.66
129.61
128.83
1,947.35
1,980.65
2,044.31
2,036.13
1,988.91
2,104.94
2,104.22
2,051.29
2,080.06
2,144.31
2,099.04
2,148.58
250.48
258.13
265.74
262.61
256.12
270.68
269.05
263.73
267.97
277.40
271.02
276.51
160.40
194.62
153.09
75.87
132.26
2,234.68
285.41
3.66
3.56
3.48
3.57
3.80
3.58
3.65
3.75
3.69
3.61
3.70
3.68
3.64
156.14
189.28
146.35
74.66
127.96
2,170.09
277.76
156.87
158.70
160.54
162.57
190.37
192.61
194.83
197.06
148.30
150.94
153.10
155.96
74.33
74.92
75.87
77.19
129.13
131.03
132.37
134.00
2,176.79
2,209.50
2,230.50
2,270.93
278.86
282.08
285.55
289.53
May
June
Julv
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1989: J a n "
Week ended:
1988: Dec 31
1989: Jan 1
14
21
28
1
2
3
4
5
Average of daily closing prices,
Includes all the* stocks (more than 1,.">(»()) iistei on the NYSE.
Includes .'SO stocks.
Includes 500 stocks.
Standard & Poor's scries. Dividend-price rati i based on Wednesday > ising prices. Earnings-
Earningsprice ratio
11.96
11.60
8.03
10.02
8.12
6.09
5.48
7.18
7.92
3.70
3.67
3.65
3.61
3.61
price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.
31
FEDERAL FINANCE
FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT
In the first 3 months of fiscal 1989, there was a deficit of $67.6 billion compared with a deficit of $82.2 billion a
year earlier.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,200
,200
1,100
1,100
1,000
1,000
900
800
700
600
600
SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-VS
-100
-100
—
^\
-200
/[
1^1981
I
--
1
1982
^^
1983
^^^
\
f
1984
i
1985
-200
i
1986
i
1987
i
1988
i
1989
|N
1990^
FISCAL YEARS
I/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET HEMS.
COUNOL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
[Billions of dollars]
Total
Fiscal year or period
Receipts
1976
Transition quarter
1977
1978
1979...
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985.
1986
1987
1988
1989 (estimates)
1990 (estimates)
Cumulative total, first 3
months: 1
Fiscal year 1988
Fiscal year 1989
Outlays
Receipts
Surplus
or deficit
(_)
\
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus
or deficit
(-)
298.1
81.2
355.6
399.6
463.3
517.1
599.3
617.8
600.6
666.5
371.8
96.0
409.2
458.7
503.5
590.9
678.2
745.7
808.3
851.8
-73.7
-14.7
-53.6
-59.2
-40.2
-73.8
-78.9
-127.9
-207.8
-185.3
231.7
63:2
278.7
314.2
365.3
403.9
469.1
474.3
453.2
500.4
302.2
76.6
328.5
369.1
403.5
476.6
543.0
594.3
661.2
686.0
-70.5
-13.3
-49.7
-54.9
-38.2
-72.7
-73.9
-120.0
-208.0
-185.6
66.4
18.0
76.8
85.4
98.0
113.2
130.2
143.5
147.3
166.1
69.6
19.4
80.7
89.7
100.0
114.3
135.2
151.4
147.1
165.8
-3.2
-1.4
-3.9
-4.3
-2.0
-1.1
-5.0
-7.9
.2
.3
734.1
769.1
854.1
909.0
975.5
1,059.3
946.3
990.3
r
1,003.8
r
1,064.0
1,137.0
1,151.8
-212.3
-221.2
r
- 149.7
-155.1
-161.5
-92.5
547.9
568.9
640.7
667.5
708.7
770.4
769.5
806.8
* 810.0
861.4
926.2
931.7
-221.6
-237.9
r
- 169.3
-193.9
-217.5
-161.3
186.2
200.2
213.4
241.5
266.9
288.9
176.8
183.5
193.8
202.7
210.9
220.1
9.4
16.7
19.6
38.8
56.0
68.8
204.9
221.9
287.1
289.4
-82.2
-67.6
154.3
167.6
222.2
240.7
-67.9
-73.1
50.6
54,3
64.9
48.8
-14.3
5.5
1
Data from Monthly Treasury Statement for December 1988, issued January 1989.
NOTE.—Data are from Budget of the United Slates Government, Fiscal Year 1990, January
32
Outlays
Gross Federal debt
(end of period)
Off-budget
On-budget
Surplus
or deficit
(-)
Total
* 629.0
643.6
r
706.4
r
776.6
r
828.9
r
908.5
' 994.3
* 1,136.8
r
1,371. 2
r
1,564.1
Held by
the public
r
r
l,817.0
2,120.1
2,345.6
' 2,600.8
2,868.8
3,107.2
2,426.8
2,692.7
Debt figures revised 1956-1985.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.
477.4
495.5
' 549.1
r
607.1
r
639.8
r
709.3
r
784.8
r
919.2
1,131.0
1,300.0
r
r
r
r
T
1,499.4
1,736.2
1,888.1
r
2,050.2
2,193.8
2,285.0
1,949.4
2,103.2
FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND
OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
In the first 3 months of fiscal 1989, receipts were $17.0 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $2.3
billion higher.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
500
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
500
RECEIPTS!/
400
INDIVIDIIAI INCOMFTAXFS
400
"
300
300
SOCIAL INSURANCE
TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS
200
CORPORATION
INCOME TAXES
\
OTHER RECEIPTS
100
«-•
0
i
:
r—
-i
i
i
i
i
i
200
100
i
0
OUTLAYS V .
800
800
NONDEFENSE
700
700
600
600
500
500
400
400
NATIONAL DEFENSE
300
300
200
200
100
100
1981
1982
1984
1983
1985
1986
1987
1989
1988
1990
FISCAL YEARS
_!/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
On-budget and off-budget outlays
On-budget and off-budget receipts
Individual
income
taxes
Corporation
income
taxes
298.1
355.6
399.6
463.3
517.1
599 3
617.8
600.6
666.5
131.6
157.6
181.0
217.8
244.1
285.9
297.7
288.9
298.4
41.4
54.9
60.0
65.7
64.6
61.1
49.2
37.0
56.9
90.8
106.5
121.0
138.9
157.8
182.7
201.5
209.0
239.4
34.3
36.6
37.7
40.8
50.6
69.5
69.3
65.6
71.8
734.1
769.1
854.1
909.0
975.5
1,059.3
334.5
349.0
392.6
401.2
425.2
466.7
61.3
63.1
83.9
r
94.5
107.0
117.4
265.2
283.9
303.3
334.3
363.9
391.5
204.9
221.9
94.0
100.8
21.3
25.4
69.3
73.6
Fiscal year
Total
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 ....
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989 (estimates)..
1990 (estimates)
Cumulative total, first 3
months: 1
Fiscal year 1988
Fiscal year 1989
1
National defense
Social
insurance
taxes
and
contributions
Department of
Defense,
military
371.8
409.2
458.7
503.5
590.9
678.2
745.7
808.3
851.8
89.6
97.2
104.5
116.3
134.0
157.5
185.3
209.9
227.4
87.9
95.1
102.3
113.6
130.9
r
153.9
180.7
204.4
220.9
7.5
7.5
12.7
13.1
12.3
11.8
15.9
15.7
17.3
18.5
20.5
23.2
26.9
27.4
28.6
30.4
73.0
73.1
74.3
r
78.9
79.5
83.7
946.3
990.3
r
1,003.8
r
1,064.0
1,137.0
1,151.8
252.7
273.4
282.0
r
290.4
298.3
303.0
' 245.2
265.5
274.0
281.9
289.8
293.8
16.2
14.2
11.6
10.5
10.7
17.3
33 5
35.9
40.0
44.5
49.8
52.2
20.3
22.1
287.1
289.4
76.4
79.6
74.3
77.3
1.6
.9
10.5
12.1
Data from Monthly Treasury Statement for December 1988, issued January 1989.
NOTE.—Data are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1990, January
International
affairs
Total
Other
Total
6.4
6.4
Health
Medicare
15.8
19.3
22.8
26.5
32.1
39.1
46.6
52.6
57.5
Income
security
Social
security
Net
interest
Other
60.8
61.0
61.5
66.4
86.5
99.7
107.7
122.6
112.7
73.9
85.1
93.9
104.1
118.5
139.6
156.0
170.7
178.2
26.7
29.9
35.4
42.6
52.5
68.7
85.0
89.8
111.1
82.8
93.0
114.7
119.6
131.4
133.5
125.4
J22.3
118.6
128.2 188.6
65.8
70.2 119.8 198.8
75.1 123.3 207.4
r
78.9 ' 129.3 r219.3
86.7 136.9 232.3
94.9 136.8 246.7
18.6
19.5
31.6
32.3
69.5
55.1
129.4 131.8
142.1
136.0
138.6 r 125.9
151.7 ' 139.4
165.7 156.5
130.8
170.1
36.8
39.6
42.1
50.4
1989, except as noted.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.
33
FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS
In the third quarter of 1988, Federal receipts fell $7.5 billion (annual rate) and Federal expenditures fell $17.3
billion. In the fourth quarter, according to advance data, expenditures rose $44.0 billion; receipts data are
incomplete.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,200
1,200
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
1,000
1,000
' EXPENDITURES
V"'
800
800
RECEIPTS
600
600
400
400
200
200
SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-)
A
-200
-200
J
I 1
1980
1 I 1
I
I
1
I
1982
1981
1983
1
1
I
I
I
1
1985
1984
I
1
1986
1
I
1
I
I
I
1988
1987
CALENDAR YEARS"
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Federal Government expenditures
Federal Government receipts
Period
Total
Fiscal year:
1985
1986
1987
1988
Calendar year:
1985
1986
1987
1988 "
1982- IV
1983: IV
1984- IV
1985: IV
1986: IV
1987: I
II
Ill
IV
1988: I
II
Ill
IV
Personal
tax and
nontax
receipts
Corporate
profits
tax
accruals
Indirect
business
tax and
nontax
accruals
Contributions for
social
insurance
Total
Purchases
of goods
and
services
Transfer
payments
Grantsin-aid to
State
and
local
governments
Net
interest
paid
Subsidies
less
current
surplus of
Government
enterprises
776.8
815.0
901.7
964.8
340.4
357.0
401.6
413.1
74.6
80.7
101.7
109.9
55.9
51.2
53.2
57.0
305.8
326.0
345.2
384.8
962.3
1,027.8
1,058.9
1,106.3
341.5
368.4
375.4
378.3
374.0
394.6
411.1
434.2
97.8
107.4
103.1
108.5
128.3
134.4
139.7
150.4
20.7
22.9
29.6
788.7
828.3
916.5
974.2
633.1
675.5
742.7
805.3
856.8
871,3
920.0
930.1
944.4
951.0
983.0
975.5
346.4
361.5
405.6
413.4
303.0
291.9
326.0
355.3
378.3
373.8
413.1
413.3
422.3
404.6
425.0
408.3
415.8
76.3
83.9
105.8
110.3
46.4
70.2
69.7
78.8
89.7
100.1
105.0
110.5
107.7
107.2
111.7
113.1
55.1
50.8
54.0
56.8
47.6
53.6
56.2
53.5
51.0
53.0
54.3
53.9
55.0
55.9
55.9
57.1
58.3
310.9
332.2
351.0
393.6
236.1
259.8
290.7
317.7
337.8
344.5
347.7
352.4
359.4
383.4
390.3
397.0
403.9
985.6
1,033.9
1,074.2
1,116.1
835.7
844.7
930.2
1,017.5
1,040.1
1,059.6
1,064.0
1,068.4
1,104.9
1,106.1
1,116.3
1,099.0
1,143.0
355.2
366.2
382.0
380.2
293.2
276.1
326.0
376.6
366.7
372.7
377.5
386.3
391.4
377.7
382.2
367.7
393.2
380.1
399.8
414.2
440.1
347.4
352.5
362.1
385.8
405.4
406.6
413.4
414.2
422.5
434.4
437.6
440.7
447.6
99.7
106.8
102.7
110.4
84.5
86.0
96.3
103.5
102.3
101.9
105.5
101.9
101.4
111.1
110.4
111.5
108.6
130.1
135.4
143.0
154.2
87.2
101.0
125.3
132.7
136.5
139.0
139.8
143.8
149.5
149.9
152.1
154.9
159.8
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysi
34
Less:
Wage
accruals
less
disbursements
Surplus
or deficit
(-),
national
income
and
product
accounts
34.8
-0.1
.0
.1
— .1
-185.5
-212.8
-157.2
-141.5
20.3
25.7
32.4
31.2
23.4
29.1
21.0
19.0
29.1
39.4
27.8
22.6
39.7
33.0
34.0
24.1
33.7
-.2
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.6
.0
.0
.0
.0
2
__2
.0
.0
.0
.0
-196.9
-205.6
-157.8
-141.9
-202.6
-169.2
-187.5
-212.2
-183.3
-188.3
-144.0
-138.3
-160.4
-155.1
-133.3
-123.5
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
Industrial production (1977 — 100; seasonally adjusted)
Period
United
States
Canada
Japan
France
Germany
Italy
Consumer prices (1982-84 = 100)
United
Kingdom
United
Kingdom
United
States '
Canada
Japan
France
Germany
99.8
96.4
98.2
101.7
103.1
107.9
109.4
112.9
82.4
90.9
96.5
99.6
103.9
107.6
109.6
113.6
118.3
76.1
85.6
94.8
100.4
104.7
108.9
113.4
118.4
123.1
90.9
95.4
98.0
99.8
102.1
104.2
104.8
104.9
72.2
81.9
91.7
100.3
108.0
114.3
117.2
121.1
86.7
92.2
97.1
100.3
102.7
104.9
104.6
105.0
63.2
75.4
87.7
100.8
111.5
121.0
128.5
134.4
78.5
87.9
95.4
99.8
104.8
111.2
114.9
119.7
Italy
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
108.6
111.0
103.1
109.2
121.4
123.7
125.1
129.8
137 2
108.1
108.6
97.9
104.3
116.9
123.3
125.1
131.6
119.0
120.3
120.7
124.5
136.1
141.0
140.8
145.7
106
106
104
105
105
106
106
108
108.0
106.2
103.1
104.1
107.6
112.9
114.9
115.6
114.4
112.6
108.5
105.8
109.2
110.4
113.5
118.0
1987- Dec
133.9
136.9
159.6
111
116.8
116.1
115.2
115.4
120.3
105.1
122.2
105.2
137.4
121.4
1988- Jan.
Feb
Mar
134.4
134.4
134.7
135.4
136.1
136.5
138.0
138 5
111
111
111
110
112
114
115
115
116
116.7
117.7
118.3
117.5
117.8
121.1
116.9
124.6
122.3
121.2
126.4
121.1
121.4
123.7
120.5
122.3
125.9
118.5
r
!22.5
126.4
116.3
113.8
115.6
116.4
117.1
117.5
117.7
118.3
118.7
118.3
115.7
116.0
116.5
117.1
117.5
118.0
118.5
119.0
119.8
120.2
120.3
1205
120.5
121.0
121.6
122.0
122.8
122.9
123.7
124.1
124.1
124.7
125.1
125 1
104.8
104.6
105.0
105.5
105.6
105.4
105.2
105.5
106.4
106.9
106.5
122.4
122.7
123.0
123.6
123.9
124.3
124.7
125.1
125.3
125.6
125.8
105.4
105.6
105.7
106.0
106.2
106.3
106.2
106.3
106.3
106.4
106.7
138.1
138.5
139.1
139.6
140.0
140.4
140.8
141.4
142.1
143.2
144.4
121.4
121.9
122.3
124.3
124.8
125.3
125.4
126.8
127.4
128.7
129.3
1980
1981
May
July
Sept
Oct
r
Dec *
1
138.6
139.3
!39 8
1402
137.9
153.9
157.4
137.5
138.1
158.3
138.2
157.0
139.9
153.3
158.4
140.0
156.4
139.5
r
!41.0 160.8
r
!41.0 r!61.6
140.6 ' 160.2
164.5
Data relate to all urban consumers.
Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commen s (Bureau of Economic Analysis
and International Trade Administration).
U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
[Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
General merchandise imports (customs value) 3
Merchandise exports (f.a.s. value) 1
Period
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
4
4
1987- Oct
Nov
Dec
1988' Jan . .
Feb
Mar. .
May
July
Sept
Oct
Nov
1
Automotive
vehicles,
parts,
and
engines
Consumer
goods
(nonfood)
except
automotive
Other
General
merchandise
imports
(c.i.f.
value)
244.0
258.0
325.7
345.3
365.4
406.2
17.1
18.2
21.0
21.9
24.4
24.8
112.0
107.0
123.7
113.9
101.3
111.0
35.4
40.9
59.8
65.1
71.8
84.5
33.3
40.8
53.5
66.8
78.2
85.2
39.7
44.9
60.0
68.3
79.4
88.7
6.5
6.3
7.8
9.4
10.4
12.1
3.2
3.0
3.5
36.0
35.3
36.6
2.3
2.1
2.0
10.3
9.9
9.8
7.4
7.6
8.0
7.4
7.3
7.6
7.3
7.5
8.1
3.1
2.6
3.4
3.2
3.8
4.0
3.4
3.4
3.6
4.5
4.1
34.3
37.7
36.6
34.8
35.7
37.9
34.5
38.1
37.2
36.6
38.1
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.9
2.2
2.0
2.1
2.1
9.5
10.0
9.6
9.5
10.5
10.2
9.7
10.2
9.4
9.8
9.7
7.5
8.6
8.4
7.9
8.1
9.0
7.8
8.9
8.7
8.1
9.1
6.8
7.6
7.5
7.2
6.5
7.4
6.6
7.3
7.9
7.7
7.5
7.5
8.4
7.8
7.3
7.6
8.3
7.5
8.5
8.1
r
7.7
8.4
Other z
72.7
67.2
72.0
73.9
75.8
86.2
15.7
16.8
20.6
22.9
21.7
24.6
14.3
13.4
13.3
12.6
14.2
17.7
20.7
20.5
24.0
27.3
35.9
34.6
5.5
6.1
6.5
7.5
8.1
8.2
2.1
2.5
2.3
1.5
1.6
1.6
6.6
6.6
7.7
7.3
7.1
7.0
7.1
6.9
7.3
6.6
6.8
8.7
8.6
8.7
8.8
9.3
8.5
9.1
9.4
9.4
9.4
9.4
2.1
2.4
2.7
2.3
2.4
2.2
2.0
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.6
1.6
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.1
1.9
1.9
motive
31.3
30.9
31.5
24.0
22.3
24.3
61.7
56.7
61.7
58.5
57.3
66.7
22.1
23.1
24.2
2.3
1.8
2.0
24.5
24 5
26.9
26.0
27.5
26.3
26.5
27.5
28.0
r
27.8
27.2
2.2
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.9
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.0
2.8
2.4
216.4
205.6
224.0
218.8
227. 2
254.1
Foods
feeds,
and
beverages
Capital
goods
except
automotive
Consumer
goods
(nonfood)
except
automotive
Foods,
feeds,
and
beverages
Total 2
Industrial
supplies
and
materials
Automotive
vehicles,
parts,
and
engines
Industrial
supplies
and
materials
Capital
goods
except
Includes Department of Defense Military Assistance Program grant-aid shipments.
Includes undocumented exports to Canada.
Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.
4
Total exports are on a revised statistical month basis; end-use categories are on a statistical
month basis.
2
3
Trade balance
Principal end-use commoditv category
Principal end-use commodity category
Total
Exports
(f.a.s)
less
imports
(customs
value)
Exports
(f.a.s)
less
imports
(c.i.f.)
254.9
269.9
346.4
352.5
382.3
424.4
-27.5
-52.4
-101.7
-126.5
-138.3
-152.1
-38.4
-64.2
-122.4
-133.6
— 155.1
-170.3
1.2
1.0
1.1
37.6
36.7
37.9
-13.9
-12.2
-12.4
-15.6
-13.6
-13.8
.9
.9
1.1
1.0
1.0
35.8
38.9
38.6
36.3
37.2
39.5
36.0
39.8
38.7
r
38.1
39.7
-9.8
— 13.2
-9.8
-8.8
-8.3
-11.7
-8.0
-10.6
-9.2
r
-8.8
-11.0
-11.3
— 14.4
— 11.7
-10.3
-9.8
-13.2
-9.5
-12.3
-10.7
-10.3
— 12.5
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.2
NOTE.—Data shown include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands.
See Bureau of the Census release FT900, June 1988 for information on the seasonally adjusted
eries.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
35
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
In the third quarter, the merchandise trade deficit fell to $28.5 billion from $30.2 billion in the second quarter. The
current account deficit fell to $30.9 billion in the third quarter from $33.7 billion in the second quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLL;kRS*
BILLI DNS OF DOLLARS*
10
10
5
5
0
//^fv^j-A.
B ULANU: UN CURI ENT ACCOUNT
-•"/
/
0
1 1
Y\
v
A
t \
-r
MERC HANDISE TRA[ E
BALANCE
\
'*\
A\
\\
-10
\\V
-15
\ \N\
\ \
\
-20
BALANCE ON GOODS
20
y^ \ \
-25
/**^.+ \
-25
X
^=\^
r>
V A^V
V
\
-35
***
-
x
r>^
• xvi
-30
\f/
1
35
V
"X/^* / /
-40
-45
^
(
;
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1982
1981
1980
1 1 1
1983
1 1 1
i i i
1985
1984
V^y'--/
1 1 !
1 1 1
1986
40
1
1987
i
1
-451
1988
SEASONALLY ADJUS ED
.OURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF CONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits ( + ), debits ( —)]
Merchandise
Investment income 3
12
Period
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1985: III
IV
1986: I
II
Ill
IV
1987:
I
II
Ill
IV
1988: I
II
Ill
Exports
Imports
224,269
— 249,749
— 265,063
— 247,642
— 268,900
— 332,422
— 338,083
237,085
211,198
201,820
219,900
215,935
223,969
249,570
53,434
53,237
54,113
56,946
56,268
56,642
56,791
59,864
64,902
68,013
75,300
79,606
"...
82,306
— 368,516
-409,850
-84,032
-89,438
-89,546
-90,807
-92,989
— 95,174
-96,662
-99,416
- 104,567
-109,205
-110,484
-109,757
-110,839
Net balance
Receipts
Payments
Net
— 25,480
72,506
— 42,120
— 52,329
— 54,883
30,386
34',082
— 27^978 86'411
— 36,444 83,549
— 67^080 77J251
— 112,522 85,908
— 122J148 88,837
— 144,547 90,110
- 16o',280 103,756
-30,598 24,309
-36,201 23,886
-35,433 24,352
-33,861 22,248
-36,721 21,845
-38,532 21,667
-39,871 24,791
-39,552 22,429
-39,665 23,289
— 41,192 33,248
-35,184 26,554
-30,151 23,426
-28,533 26,830
28,666
— 52,376 24^875
— 67,419 18,489
— 62^901 25^936
— 66,968 23,142
-83,381 20^375
- 16,055
8,254
-13,818 10,068
-17,357
6,995
-17,533
4,715
-15,729
6,116
— 16,350
5,317
-19,715
5,076
-20,737
1,692
-22,222
1,067
-20,709 12,539
-25,395
1,159
-25,366 -1,940
-27,167
-337
Net
military
transactions
— 2,237
— 1,183
— 274
— 243
— 2,099
— 3,431
— 4,372
-2,368
-828
-1,647
-1,408
-1,283
-1,076
-605
-78
-179
-851
-1,261
-1,033
— 914
-934
Remittances,
pensions,
and other
unilateral
transfers '
Net
travel and
transportation
receipts
Other
services,
net3
— 997
144
— 992
— 4,227
— 8,604
— 10,049
— 9,344
-10,281
-2,624
-2,678
-2,456
-2,070
-2,407
-2,410
-2,597
-2,516
-2,521
-2,648
-2,121
-1,676
-1,463
— 7,593
7,793
9,466
-7,460
14,344
9,278
9,320
278 — 8,956
9,908 — 36,766 -9,480
9,760 — 94,975 — 12,102
9,600 — 100,093 -15,010
11,600 — 123,520 — 15,308
12,035 -140,519 — 13,445
-4,036
2,278 -23,518
2,595 -27,863 -4,205
2,817 -29,485 -2,972
2,870 -29,629 -4,085
2,800 -31,288 — 4,249
3,112 -33,118 -4,003
2,813 -34,657 -2,967
2,828 -37,727 -3,125
-2,980
2,983 -38,987
3,412 -29,150 -4,373
-3,121
3,362 -33,817
3,693 -30,988 -2,751
3,491 -27,776 -3,118
Balance on
goods and
services
United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services,
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
36
Balance
on current
account
1,873
6,884
-8,679
-46,246
-107,077
-115,103
-138,828
-153,964
-27,554
-32,068
-32,457
-33,714
-35,537
-37,121
-37,624
-40,852
-41,967
-33,523
-36,938
-33,739
-30,894
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $27.0 billion in the third quarter,
compared with an increase of $13.3 billion in the second quarter. Liabilities to private foreigners and international
financial institutions reported by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $30.4 billion in the third
quarter, compared with an increase of $31.1 billion in the second quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*
80
80
l\
-
60
60
CHANGE IN
FOREIGN ASSETS
IN THE U.S..NET
40
40
20
20
-20
-20
-40
-40
-60
-60
1988
1980
•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
U.S. assets abroad, net
[increase/capit
Period
Total
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1985:
III
IV
1986: I
II
Ill
IV
1987: I
II
Ill
IV
1988: I
II
Ill "...
U.S.
official
reserve
assets * 2
Other U.S.
Government
assets
Of which:
Seasonal
adjustment
discrepancy
58,112
83,032
93,746
84,869
102,621
129,900
221,253
211,490
15,497
4,960
3,593
5,845
3,140
-1,196
35,507
44,968
42,615
78,072
90,154
79,023
99,481
131,096
185,746
166,522
-7,018
-18,102
35,044
53,292
2,450
-1,130
32,594
54,422
103
578
-3,981
3,569
38,295
43,186
-15,305
-24,320
-24,901
— 31,777
39,050
50,128
69,884
62,192
2,719
15,838
15,779
1,171
36,331
34,291
54,104
61,020
9,033
8,100
-8,133
6,565
3,006
-2,786
-3,876
3,655
44,919
46,595
48,087
48,511
9,049
-26,127
-25,576
-43,645
33,100
50,660
71,658
56,072
13,977
10,332
611
20,047
19,122
40,327
71,047
36,025
-6,547
13,071
-4,399
16,342
4,141
-2,615
-4,658
3,138
48,824
45,140
45,070
45,798
5,903
-18,210
-34,181
26,066
65,495
48,027
24,670
5,946
-2,902
1,395
59,549
50,928
4,282
-12,784
22,498
3,747
-3,585
-5,205
43,186
41,028
47,788
5 162 -72,802
100 679
-5,097
-6,131 -110,058
5 006
43 576
-5,489 -13,685
-2,829 -25,950
-2,000 -96,303
86 297
1,162
-7,593
-21,802
-121
-3,148
-15,626
— 24,515
-26,213
-31,635
-115
16
280
132
1,956
3,419
32
3,741
1,503
39
-7,380
-454
-553
-206
-211
-1,592
10
67
-170
252
1,012
-814
-801
1,931
6,591
-18,972
-39,630
Total (sum
of the items
with sign
reversed)
U.S. official
reserve
assets, net l
(unadjusted,
end of
period)
Other
foreign
assets
8 155
-5,175
4 965
-1,196
3 131
-3,858
312
9,149
11,072
-22,878
-25,292
-38,891
Statistical discrepancy
Allocations
of special
drawing
rights
(SDKs)
Foreign
official
assets
U.S.
private
assets
-86,118
-110,951
-121,153
-49,777
-22,304
-32,636
-97,991
-75,987
1
Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDRs), convertible
position in the IMF.
2
Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.
Foreign assets in the U.S., net2
[increase /capital inflow ( + )]
Total
and the U.S. reserve
Sources: Departrr
Treasurv.
1,152
1,093
26,756
30,074
33,958
33,747
34,934
43,186
48,511
45,798
24,982
19,942
36,085
11,154
26,760
17,839
15,566
18,461
(Bureau of Economic- Analysis) and Department of the
37
Contents
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
pagc
Gross National Product
Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product
Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures
Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits
National Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Sources of Personal Income
Disposition of Personal Income
Farm Income
Corporate Profits
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
Status of the Labor Force
Selected Unemployment Rates
Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector
11
12
13
14
15
15
16
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures
New Construction
New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates
Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders
17
18
19
19
20
21
:
PRICES
Producer Prices
Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers
Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods
Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
22
23
24
24
25
MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures
Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets
Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base
Bank Loans and Securities
Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business
Consumer Installment Credit
Interest Rates and Bond Yields
Common Stock Prices and Yields
26
27
27
28
29
29
30
31
FEDERAL FINANCE
Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt
Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function
Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis
32
33
34
INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries
U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports
U.S. International Transactions
35
35
36
General Notes
Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.
Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.
Symbols used:
p
Preliminary.
r
Revised.
c
Corrected.
... Not available (also, not applicable).
NSA not seasonally adjusted.
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