Full text of Economic Indicators : January 1987
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100th Congress, 1st Sessio Economic Indicators JANUARY 1987 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1987 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland, Chairman LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Vice Chairman SENATE WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) JOHN MELCHER (Montana) JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico) WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho) ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York) PETE WILSON (California) HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California) DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin) JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York) FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine) HAMILTON FISH, JR. (New York) J. ALEX McMILLAN, HI (North Carolina) JUDITH DAVISON, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS BERYL W. SPRINKEL, Chairman THOMAS G. MOORE, Member MICHAEL L. MUSSA, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—SlsT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.50 a single copy ($3.13 foreign), or by subscription at $27.00 per year ($33.75 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 11 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to preliminary estimates for the fourth quarter, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 2.6 percent (annual rate) or $27.7 billion. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 1.7 percent and the implicit price deflator rose 1.0 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 4,400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 4,400 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 4,000 4,000 3,600 3,600 3,200 3,200 GNP IN 1982 DOLLARS 2,800 2,800 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 I 1,600 1978 1979 I I I 1980 I 1 1983 1982 1981 I 1984 I 1 1985 1,600 1986 SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic ment 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 * 2,249.7 2,508.2 2,732.0 3,052.6 3,166.0 3,405.7 3,765.0 3,998.1 4,208.5 1,403.5 1,566.8 1,732.6 1,915.1 2,050.7 2,234.5 2,428.2 2,600.5 2,762.4 416.8 454.8 437.0 515.5 447.3 502.3 662.1 661.1 686.4 Government purchases of goods and services Exports and imports of goods and services Federal Net exports 4.1 18.8 32.1 33.9 26.3 -6.1 -58.7 -78.9 -105.7 14.1 Exports Imports Total Total 227.5 291.2 351.0 382.8 361.9 352.5 382.7 369.8 373.0 223.4 272.5 318.9 348.9 335.6 358.7 441.4 448.6 478.7 National defense 425.2 467.8 530.3 588.1 641.7 675.0 733.4 815.4 865.3 161.8 178.0 208.1 242.2 272.7 283.5 311.3 354.1 367.2 108.9 121.9 142.7 167.5 193.8 214.4 235.0 259.4 278.4 Nondefense 52.9 56.1 65.4 74.8 78.9 69.1 76.2 94.7 88.9 State and local 263.4 289.9 322.2 345.9 369.0 391.5 422.2 461.3 498.1 Final sales 2,221.0 2,495.2 2,740.3 3,028.6 3,190.5 3,412.8 3,700.9 3,987.0 4,197.1 1982: IT 3,212.5 2,117.0 409.6 335.9 321.9 671.8 293.2 205.4 87.7 378.7 3,272.4 1983- IV 3,545.8 2,315.8 579.8 -25.8 364.7 390.5 676.1 276.1 221.5 54.6 400.0 3,514.8 1984- I IV 3,670.9 3,743.8 3,799.7 3,845.6 2,363.8 2,416.1 2,445.6 2,487.2 659.5 657.5 670.3 661.1 -45.6 -63.2 -60.0 -66.1 373.4 382.1 389.2 386.2 419.0 445.3 449.1 452.2 693.2 733.3 743.8 763.4 283.4 315.2 317.2 329.1 227.1 233.7 234.5 244.9 56.3 81.6 82.7 84.2 409.8 418.1 426.6 434.3 3,575.4 3,683.9 3,735.3 3,808.9 1985- I II Ill IV 3,909.3 3,965.0 4,030.5 4,087.7 2,530.9 2,576.0 2,627.1 2,667.9 650.6 667.1 657.4 669.5 -49.4 -77.1 -83.7 -105.3 378.4 370.0 362.3 368.2 427.9 447.1 446.0 473.6 777.3 799.0 829.7 855.6 333.7 340.9 360.9 380.9 248.9 255.1 265.5 268.0 84.8 85.8 95.5 112.9 443.5 458.1 468.8 474.7 3,883.9 3,945.9 4,027.4 4,090.8 1986- I 4,149.2 4,175.6 4,240.7 4,268.4 2,697.9 2,732.0 2,799.8 2,819.9 708.3 687.3 675.8 674.5 -93.7 -104.5 -108.9 — 115.6 374.8 363.0 370.8 383.4 468.5 467.5 479.7 499.0 836.7 860.8 874.0 889.7 355.7 367.6 369.3 376.3 266.4 278.4 286.8 281.9 89.3 89.2 82.6 94.4 480.9 493.3 504.7 513.3 4,105.4 4,161.2 4,245.2 4,276.7 n m n m IV Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic An GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS [Billions of 1982 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product Gross private domestic investment Government purchases of goods and services Exports of goods and services Personal consumption expenditures Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed Change in business inventories 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 ' 3,115.2 3,192.4 3,187.1 3,248.8 3,166.0 3,279.1 3,489.9 3,585.2 3,676.5 1,961.0 2,004.4 2,000.4 2,024.2 2,050.7 2,146.0 2,246.3 2,324.5 2,418.6 362.1 389.4 379.2 395.2 366.7 361.2 422.2 461.4 455.0 178.0 170.8 137.0 126.5 105.1 149.3 170.6 177.2 193.9 36.8 15.0 -6.9 23.9 -24.5 -6.4 59.2 9.0 10.8 1982- IV 3,159.3 2,078.7 352.3 115.8 1983- IV 3,365.1 2,191.9 390.4 159.9 1984: I JI III IV 3,444.7 3,487.1 3,507.4 3,520.4 2,213.8 2,246.3 2,253.3 2,271.7 394.4 419.5 427.1 447.6 1985: I II Ill IV 3,547.0 3,567.6 3,603.8 3,622.3 2,292.3 2,311.9 2,342.0 2,351.7 1986- I II Ill IV 3,635.9 3,661.4 3,686.4 3,702.4 2,372.7 2,408.4 2,448.0 2,445.1 Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total Total National defense Nondefense State and local Final sales -26.8 3.6 57.0 49.4 26.3 — 19.9 -83.6 -108.2 -149.7 312.6 356.8 388.9 392.7 361.9 348.1 369.7 362.3 371.3 339.4 353.2 332.0 343.4 335.6 368.1 453.2 470.5 521.0 604.1 609.1 620.5 629.7 641.7 649.0 675.2 721.2 748.0 233.7 236.2 246.9 259.6 272.7 275.1 291.7 323.6 333.4 160.7 164.3 171.2 180.3 193.8 206.9 219.4 235.7 251.0 73.0 71.9 75.7 79.3 78.9 68.2 72.3 87.8 82.4 370.4 373.0 373.6 370.1 369.0 373.9 383.5 397.6 414.5 3,078.4 3,177.4 3,194.0 3,225.0 3,190.5 3,285.5 3,430.7 3,576.2 3,665.7 -59.3 11.7 336.0 324.3 660.1 289.5 201.4 88.2 370.6 3,218.6 27.0 -46.2 355.5 401.6 642.2 266.0 211.6 54.4 376.2 3,338.1 169.7 173.2 171.2 168.3 85.1 57.0 60.6 33.9 -68.6 -87.2 -85.7 -92.7 361.3 367.0 375.5 375.0 429.9 454.2 461.2 467.7 650.2 678.2 681.0 691.5 271.2 296.3 295.6 303.8 214.4 219.0 218.4 225.9 56.8 77.3 77.1 77.9 379.0 381.8 385.4 387.7 3,359.6 3,430.0 3,446.8 3,486.4 442.7 463.0 463.1 476.9 172.4 175.1 180.0 181.5 23.2 17.4 .7 -5.2 -78.8 -108.1 -113.8 -132.0 369.4 361.2 355.8 362.9 448.2 469.3 469.6 494.8 695.3 708.3 731.8 749.4 305.8 311.4 329.9 347.2 228.0 233.5 242.2 239.3 77.8 77.9 87.6 107.9 389.5 396.9 401.9 402.2 3,523.9 3,550.2 3,603.1 3,627.5 457.8 456.8 454.4 451.0 186.3 192.7 197.2 199.3 39.9 15.1 -.3 -11.5 -125.9 -153.9 -163.3 -155.6 369.2 359.8 371.2 385.3 495.1 513.6 534.5 540.8 725.2 742.2 750.4 774.1 320.4 328.9 330.9 353.5 238.7 249.3 259.4 256.5 81.7 79.5 71.5 97.0 404.8 413.3 419.5 420.6 3,616.1 3,646.3 3,686.7 3,713.9 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analys IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1982 — 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Gross private domestic investment Personal consumption expenditures Period Gross national product 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 " 72.2 78.6 85.7 94.0 100.0 103.9 107.9 111.5 114.5 Total Durable goods 71.6 78.2 86.6 94.6 100.0 104.1 108.1 111.9 114.2 76.9 82.1 89.2 95.7 100.0 102.1 103.8 104.5 105.3 Nondurable goods 71.9 80.0 89.4 96.9 100.0 102.1 105.0 107.5 106.9 Services Nonresidential fixed 69.8 75.6 83.9 92.6 100.0 106.2 111.7 117.3 122.4 71.5 77.8 85.1 93.4 100.0 98.8 98.7 99.3 100.8 Exports and imports of goods and services Government purchases of goods and services Federal Residential fixed 72.6 81.4 89.4 96.6 100.0 102.2 106.3 108.2 111.7 Exports Imports Total 72.8 81.6 90.2 97.5 100.0 101.3 103.5 102.1 100.4 65.8 77.1 96.0 101.6 100.0 97.4 97.4 95.4 91.9 69.2 75.4 84.3 93.3 100.0 103.1 106.7 109.4 110.1 National defense 67.8 74.2 83.4 92.9 100.0 103.6 107.1 110.0 110.9 Nondefense State and local 72.4 78.0 86.4 94.3 100.0 101.4 105.5 107.9 107.8 71.1 77.7 86.2 93.4 100.0 104.7 110.1 116.0 120.1 1982- IV 101.7 101.8 100.7 101.0 102.7 100.7 99.1 100.0 99.3 101.3 102.0 99.5 102.2 1983- IV 105.4 105.7 103.1 103.1 108.3 98.3 103.1 102.6 97.2 103.8 104.7 100.3 106.3 1984: I II III IV 106.6 107.4 108.3 109.2 106.8 107.6 108.5 109.5 103.3 103.9 104.1 104.1 104.4 104.5 105.1 106.0 109.6 110.9 112.4 113.6 98.4 98.5 98.8 99.0 103.6 106.4 107.5 107.8 103.4 104.1 103.6 103.0 97.5 98.0 97.4 96.7 104.5 106.4 107.3 108.3 105.9 106.7 107.3 108.4 99.2 105.5 107.3 108.2 108.1 109.5 110.7 112.0 1985- I 110.2 111.1 111.8 112.8 110.4 111.4 112.2 113.4 104.6 104.5 104.5 104.3 106.5 107.2 107.5 108.9 115.0 116.6 118.0 119.5 99.4 99.2 99.3 99.4 107.6 107.8 108.1 109.4 102.4 102.4 101.8 101.5 95.5 95.3 95.0 95.7 109.1 109.5 109.4 109.7 109.2 109.3 109.6 112.0 109.0 110.2 108.9 104.6 113.9 115.4 116.6 118.0 113.5 114.0 115.0 115.3 113.7 113.4 114.4 115.3 104.5 104.7 105.9 106.0 108.0 105.8 106.6 107.3 120.6 121.8 123.0 124.3 100.3 100.2 101.0 101.6 110.2 111.7 112.2 112.7 101.5 100.9 99.9 99.5 94.6 91.0 89.7 92.3 111.0 111.8 111.6 106.5 111.6 111.7 110.5 109.9 109.2 112.1 115.4 97.3 118.8 119.4 120.3 122.1 n Ill IV 1986: I n m IV Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross national product Period Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars -0.2 1.9 -2.5 3.6 6.4 2.7 2.5 .6 7.3 9.8 5.0 2.3 1.5 3.1 2.3 4.1 2.1 3.8 .6 2.8 1.7 8.9 11.7 3.7 7.6 10.5 6.2 5.3 4.2 12.4 14.9 8.2 6.1 4.9 6.8 5.8 6.8 5.8 6.2 2.6 6.4 2.6 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 * 1982: IV 1983- IV 1984- I II III IV 1985- I II m IV 1986- I II Ill IV Implicit price deflator Personal consumption expenditures Chain price index 9.0 9.7 6.4 3.9 3.8 3.3 2.7 3.6 4.7 4.6 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.3 2.5 3.6 2.5 1.8 3.6 1.0 NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. 9.0 9.4 6.3 4.1 4.0 3.6 2.5 4.1 3.9 4.8 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.9 3.5 2.5 3.9 1.9 1.5 2.5 2.3 Fixedweighted price index (1982 weights) Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars 9.3 9.3 6.2 4.1 4.0 3.7 2.8 4.0 4.0 4.7 3.6 3.5 3.6 4.2 3.6 2.8 4.0 2.5 1.7 2.6 2.6 10.6 10.5 7.1 9.0 8.7 7.1 6.2 10.3 9.7 8.6 9.1 5.0 7.0 7.2 7.3 8.2 6.4 4.6 5.2 10.3 2.9 -0.2 1.2 1.3 4.6 4.7 3.5 4.0 5.3 5.5 4.1 6.0 1.3 3.3 3.7 3.5 5.3 1.7 3.6 6.2 6.7 -.5 Implicit price deflator Chain price index 10.7 9.2 5.7 4.1 3.8 3.5 2.1 4.4 4.3 4.2 3.0 3.4 3.7 3.3 3.7 2.9 4.3 1.1 -1.1 3.6 3.2 Fixedweighted price index (1982 weights) 10.9 9.2 5.7 4.2 4.0 3.6 2.4 4.8 4.1 4.5 3.0 3.7 3.7 3.5 4.0 2.8 4.7 1.4 _ 10.5 9.0 5.6 4.2 4.0 3.7 2.5 4.8 4.1 4.7 3.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.2 3.0 4.7 1.5 -.4 3.4 3.5 Q 3.6 3.6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollars) 1 Gross domestic product of nonfmancial corporate business (billions of dollars) Period Current dollars 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 * 1982- IV 1983- IV 1984- I II in IV 1985- I II in rv 1986- I n HI 1 1982 dollars 1,540.8 1,738.4 1,782.2 1,914.2 2,143.7 2,275.1 2,361.5 1,779.4 2,012.5 2,081.7 2,135.9 2,160.3 2,196.8 2,226.0 2,259.1 2,301.3 2,314.1 2,343.6 2,341.5 2,370.0 1,807.9 1,837.2 1,782.2 1,866.0 2,030.8 2,105.5 2,144.9 1,760.2 1,940.5 1,993.8 2,031.6 2,038.4 2,059.4 2,075.7 2,094.4 2,124.6 2,127.3 2,141.0 2,135.3 2,142.2 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Total cost and profit 2 Capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment Indirect business taxes 3 0.852 .946 1.000 1.026 1.056 1.081 1.101 1.011 1.037 1.044 1.051 1.060 1.067 1.072 1.079 1.083 1.088 1.095 1.097 1.106 0.095 .109 .125 .123 .118 .120 .123 .131 .120 .118 .117 .118 .119 .119 .120 .119 .121 .121 .123 .123 0.077 .090 .094 .098 .100 .103 .106 .096 .098 .099 .100 .101 .101 .102 .104 .103 .104 .106 .103 .107 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1982 dol- lars. 3 4 Compensation of employees Net interest 0.581 .632 .676 .679 .690 .708 .725 .685 .680 .683 .684 .694 .699 .704 .708 .705 .716 .721 .724 .727 0.031 .037 .043 .037 .041 .043 .041 .042 .037 .037 .039 .042 .043 .044 .043 .042 .042 .042 .041 .040 Total 0.068 .078 .063 .089 .107 .106 .107 .057 .103 .107 .111 .104 .104 .103 .104 .113 .105 .105 .106 .109 Profits tax liability 0.037 .035 .026 .032 .037 .032 .035 .023 .036 .041 .040 .034 .032 .031 .029 .033 .033 .032 .034 .036 Profits after tax 4 0.031 .044 .037 .057 .070 .075 .072 .034 .066 .067 .071 .070 .072 .073 .075 .080 .072 .073 .072 .072 Output per hour of all employees (1982 dollars) Compensation per hour of all employees (dollars) 17.096 17.194 17.318 17.867 18.224 18.436 9.939 10.861 11.699 12.124 12.574 13.060 17.383 18.027 18.172 18.275 18.201 18.250 18.285 18.384 18.604 18.472 18.449 r 18.438 ' 18.445 11.915 12.259 12.406 12.498 12.630 12.758 12.878 13.011 13.121 13.229 13.294 13.347 ' 13.406 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. With inventon- valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 2 This is equai to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] National income Period Compensation of employees1 Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Farm Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Nonfarm Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total Total Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment Capital consumption adjustment Net interest 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 " 1982- IV 1983- IV 1984- I . II Ill IV 1985- I II III IV 2,443.5 2,518.4 2,719.5 3,032.0 3,222.3 3,387.4 2,548.2 2,851.5 2,963.2 3,010.3 3,052.3 3,102.0 3,157.0 3,201.4 3,243.4 3,287.3 1,807.4 1,907.0 2,020.7 2,214.7 2,368.2 2,498.3 1,931.1 2,092.7 2,153.7 2,195.4 2,234.7 2,275.0 2,316.3 2,352.1 2,380.9 2,423.6 30.7 24.6 12.4 31.5 29.2 26.4 28.5 19.3 44.5 26.4 24.7 30.4 32.9 33.0 21.6 29.4 156.1 150.9 178.4 205.3 225.2 252.5 159.8 188.6 198.0 203.2 209.9 210.3 217.8 222.5 227.7 232.7 13.3 13.6 13.2 8.3 7.6 15.6 15.8 12.4 12.1 8.4 7.1 5.6 6.8 8.1 7.3 8.3 188.0 150.0 213.7 264.7 280.7 299.7 146.1 248.5 262.5 271.7 259.8 265.0 266.4 274.3 206.3 285.6 202.3 159.2 196.7 230.2 222.6 242.9 150.7 223.4 235.7 241.5 223.3 220.3 213.3 215.4 235.3 226.4 226.5 169.6 207.6 235.7 223.2 236.6 164.1 231.5 249.3 246.5 225.1 221.9 213.8 213.8 229.2 235.8 -24.2 -10.4 -10.9 — 5.5 -.6 6.3 -13.4 -8.1 -13.6 -4.9 -1.8 -1.6 — .5 1.6 6.1 -9.4 -14.4 -9.2 17.0 34.5 58.1 56.8 — 4.5 25.1 26.7 30.2 36.5 44.7 53.2 58.9 61.0 59.2 248.1 272.3 281.0 307.4 311.4 294.9 266.9 290.2 292.5 305.2 316.1 315.7 316.8 311.4 309.7 307.6 1986- I .. II III . IV 3,340.7 3,376.4 3,396.1 2,461.5 2,480.2 2,507.4 2,544.2 24.4 39.5 19.6 22.2 240.9 249.6 258.0 261.6 12.8 16.3 16.2 17.0 296.4 293.1 302.0 239.0 238.3 246.5 222.5 227.7 240.4 16.5 10.6 6.1 -8.0 57.3 54.8 55.5 59.5 304.9 297.7 292.9 284.1 1 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nondurable goods Durable goods Total personal consumption expenditures Total durable goods 1985- I II III IV 1,915.1 2,050.7 2,234.5 2,428.2 2,600.5 2,762.4 2,117.0 2,315.8 2,363.8 2,416.1 2,445.6 2,487.2 2,530.9 2 5760 2,627.1 2,667.9 239.9 252.7 289.1 331.2 359.3 388.3 263.8 310.0 321.2 331.3 331.8 340.4 347.7 354.0 373.3 362.0 100.5 108.9 130.4 154.5 169.2 182.3 115.7 144.4 150.4 155.8 154.4 157.6 162.3 165.3 182.8 166.4 92.7 95.7 107.1 118.9 126.8 137.0 99.1 112.4 115.6 118.3 119.2 122.3 123.5 125.9 126.8 130.9 46.6 48.1 51.6 57.8 63.3 69.0 49.0 53.2 55.2 57.2 58.3 60.4 61.9 62.8 63.7 64.7 740.6 771.0 816.7 870.1 905.1 932.7 786.6 837.9 855.7 870.3 873.9 880.3 888.2 902.3 907.4 922.6 1986- I II HI IV 2,697.9 2,732.0 2,799.8 2,819.9 360.8 373.9 414.5 404.2 163.5 172.0 204.7 189.0 132.1 135.8 140.0 140.2 65.3 66.0 69.8 75.0 929.7 928.4 932.8 940.0 Period 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 p 1982- IV 1983- IV 1984- I II Ill rv .. . . . . Motor Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. cles and parts Furniture and household equipment Other Total nondurable goods Services Retail sales of new passenger cars (millions of units) Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil 376.5 398.8 421.9 449.9 469.3 492.8 407.0 430.8 440.4 447.9 454.3 456.9 461.2 468.3 470.4 477.4 119.9 124.4 135.1 147.2 155.2 164.8 126.5 141.1 144.4 148.2 146.6 149.7 151.7 155.0 155.4 158.7 92.7 89.1 90.2 90.7 91.9 78.7 89.8 91.9 92.0 91.7 89.4 89.9 89.6 92.8 92.4 93.0 151.6 158.7 169.5 182.2 188.7 196.5 163.4 174.0 178.8 182.5 183.6 183.8 185.8 186.2 189.1 193.5 934.7 1,027.0 1,128.7 1,227.0 1,336.1 1,441.3 1,066.5 1,167.9 1,186.9 1,214.5 1,239.9 1,266.5 1,294.9 1,319.7 1,346.4 1,383.2 6.2 5.8 6.8 8.0 8.2 8.2 6.0 7.4 8.1 8.1 7.9 7.7 8.3 8.1 9.4 7.0 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.2 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.2 484.6 490.3 494.0 502.2 161.3 165.0 166.6 166.2 87.6 78.1 74.2 74.9 196.2 194.9 198.0 196.7 1,407.4 1,429.8 1,452.4 1,475.7 7.8 8.1 9.7 7.9 2.8 3.1 3.5 3.6 Food Other Domestics Imports SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $28.2 billion (annual rate) in December, following a rise of $7.8 billion in November. The increases were affected by two special factors: large increases in subsidy payments to farmers in December and bonus payments to employees in the automobile industry in October. Excluding the effect of these factors, personal income rose $7.6 billion in December and $16.6 billion in November. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,800 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 1 3,800 3,200 3,200 1,600 1,600 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 800 800 OTHER INCOME 400 400 \ TRANSFER PAYMENTS 200 |_L 1978 1979 1983 1982 1981 1980 i Iii i ' 1984 i i i i i I i i in 1985 i i i i i I 700 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Total personal income Period Wage and salary disbursements Proprietors' income 3 Other labor income :2 Farm Nonfarm Rental income of persons 4 Personal dividend income Personal interest income Transfer payments 5 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance Nonfarm personal income 6 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 p 2,033.9 2,258.4 2,520.9 2,670.8 2,838.6 3,110.2 3,314.5 3,487.0 1,252.1 1,372.0 1,510.3 1,586.1 1,676.6 1,836.8 1,966.1 2,073.8 122.7 138.4 150.3 163.6 173.6 184.5 196.9 208.8 31.7 20.5 30.7 24.6 12.4 31.5 29.2 26.4 160.1 160.1 156.1 150.9 178.4 205.3 225.2 252.5 5.6 6.6 13.3 13.6 13.2 8.3 7.6 15.6 48.1 52.9 61.3 63.9 68.7 74.7 76.4 81.2 221.4 271.9 335.4 369.7 393.1 446.9 476.2 475.4 273.1 324.7 368.1 410.6 442.6 455.6 487.1 513.7 81.0 88.6 104.5 112.3 120.1 133.5 150.2 160.3 1,983.1 2,215.8 2,465.6 2,618.7 2,799.0 3,052.2 3,261.0 3,437.8 1985: Dec 3,418.0 2,031.1 202.6 38.2 234.9 11.7 76.9 482.2 494.5 154.0 3,356.9 1986' Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept 3,417.4 3,435.3 3,445.1 3,486.8 3,481.3 3,481.9 3,490.8 3,497.9 3,507.9 3,518.8 3,526.6 3,554.8 2,035.7 2,044.8 2,051.8 2,054.9 2,058.4 2,063.2 2,072.0 2,083.4 2,088.0 2,102.3 2,112.2 2,118.9 203.6 204.5 205.5 206.4 207.3 208.2 209.5 210.4 211.3 212.1 213.0 213.8 23.4 26.9 22.8 53.0 38.1 27.5 18.3 19.1 21.3 18.2 14.3 34.0 237.9 241.0 243.8 247.5 249.1 252.2 255.4 257.5 261.0 260.4 262.1 262.1 12.2 12.7 13.5 15.1 16.6 17.1 16.5 16.1 16.0 16.3 17.0 17.8 78.0 79.2 80.0 80.8 81.1 81.5 81.7 82.1 82.3 82.4 82.7 82.9 481.4 480.7 480.4 480.5 480.1 479.8 477.2 473.7 470.4 468.4 466.6 465.2 503.4 504.2 506.5 507.9 510.7 511.8 520.3 516.5 518.7 520.5 521.4 523.1 158.0 158.7 159.1 159.2 159.9 159.3 160.2 160.9 161.1 162.0 162.6 162.9 3,371.1 3,385.6 3,399.5 3,411.0 3,420.5 3,431.7 3,449.6 3,455.9 3,463.7 3,477.6 3,489.4 3,498.0 Get T Nov Dec r p .. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable personal income fell again in the fourth quarter of 1986. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS Of DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 1,400 1,000 DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 14,000 1,000 DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 14,000 — PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 12,000 12,000 10,000 10,000 1982 DOLLARS 8,000 8,000 6,000 6,000 I 4,000 I I 1978 I 1980 1981 1982 1984 1983 1985 I I I 4,000 1986 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE Period COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Personal income Less: Personal tax and nontax payments Equals: Disposable personal income Less: Personal outlays 1 Equals: Persona! saving Disposable persona! income in 1982 dollars (billions) Current dollars 1,812.4 2,033.9 2,258.4 2,520.9 2,670.8 2,838.6 3,110.2 3,314.5 3,487.0 261.1 304.7 340.5 393.3 409.3 410.5 439.6 486.5 513.4 1,551.2 1,729.3 1,917.9 2,127.6 2,261.4 2,428.1 2,670.6 2,828.0 2,973.7 Current dollars 1982 dollars 1982 dollars 1,441.1 1,611.3 1,781.1 1,968.1 2,107.5 2,297.4 2,501.9 2,684.7 2,857.4 110.2 118.0 136.8 159.4 153.9 130.6 168.7 143.3 116.3 2,167.4 2,212.6 2,214.3 2,248.6 2,261.5 2,331.9 2,470.6 2,528.0 2,603.7 6,968 7,682 8,421 9,243 9,724 10,340 11,265 11,817 12,312 9,735 9,829 9,722 9,769 9,725 9,930 10,421 10,563 10,780 Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population, including Armed Forces abroad (thousands) 2 3.8 1.0 — 1.1 .5 -.5 2.1 4.9 1.4 2.1 7.1 6.8 7.1 7.5 6.8 5.4 6.3 5.1 3.9 222,629 225,106 227,754 230,182 232,549 234,829 237,067 239,317 241,522 change in reai per capita disposable personal income Percent Dollars Billions of dollars 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986" Per capita personal consumption expenditures Per capita disposable personal income 6,304 6,960 7,607 8,320 8,808 8,904 8,783 8,794 8,818 9,515 8,818 9,139 10,243 10,866 11,437 9,475 10,014 9,713 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1982: IV 2,729.2 411.1 2,318.1 2,174.9 1983: IV 2,941.8 413.9 2,527.9 2,382.5 1984: I II Ill .... IV 3,034.2 3,077.4 3,139.7 3,189.6 421.5 431.2 445.9 460.0 2,612.7 2,646.3 2,693.8 2,729.6 2,433.5 2,488.7 2,520.9 2,564.6 1985: I II III.... 3,253.1 3,298.7 3,323.2 3,382.9 497.7 456.4 491.2 500.7 2,755.4 2,842.3 2,832.0 2,882.2 2,611.3 2,658.7 2,712.4 2,756.4 3,432.6 3,483.3 3,498.8 3,533.4 497.5 504.8 519.0 532.2 2,935.1 2,978.5 2,979.9 3,001.2 2,789.4 2,825.5 2,895.8 2,918.9 IV 1986: I II m.... IV.. 143.1 145.4 179.2 157.6 172.9 165.0 144.1 183.6 119.6 125.8 145.6 153.1 84.1 82.3 2,276.1 9,929 9,749 9,068 8,904 1.2 6.2 233,466 2,392.7 10,725 10,151 9,825 9,299 9.1 5.8 235,707 2,446.9 2,460.3 2,481.9 2,493.1 11,060 11,178 11,350 11,471 10,358 10,392 10,457 10,477 10,007 10,206 10,304 10,453 9,372 9,488 9,494 9,547 8.4 1.3 2.5 .8 6.9 6.0 6.4 6.0 236,222 236,742 237,347 237,953 2,495.7 2,550.8 2,524.7 2,540.7 11,555 11,893 11,819 11, §99 10,466 10,674 10,537 10,577 10,613 10,779 10,964 11,107 9,613 9,674 9,774 9,790 -.4 8.2 -5.0 1.5 5.2 6.5 4.2 4.4 238,469 238,985 239,605 240,206 2,581.2 2,625.8 2,605.5 2,602.3 12,193 12,348 12,324 12,382 10,723 10,886 10,776 10,737 9,857 9,985 10,125 10,088 5.6 6.2 -4.0 -1.4 5.0 5.1 2.8 2.7 240,709 241,215 241,789 242,376 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). r r 11,208 11,326 ll,579 11,634 r FARM INCOME In the third quarter of 1986, according to current estimates, gross farm income fell $23.4 billion (annual rate) and net farm income fell $21.7 billion, as Government payments fell sharply from their second quarter level. —-^^\ /--——- r~~^ — 40 r / _^x V X -* \ 20 \ ;-^ "\/ i i ^\ 1 1 1 1978 1 1 1 1979 1 1 1 ^ ; / ^^ X ET FARM INCOME N ""-._ "\ V ' \,s/" •• \ 1 1 1981 1 1 1 1 1982 40 -, •• v " ' \ \y • t l\ 1 \ i \ 1 \ I \ I i' | i . .". '^ \ \ \' \ , » I \ \ 20 \ \ / 1980 /• 1 x \\ ti \\ ii \i i1 1u1 u 10 1- " ^' 1 T C ROSS FARM IS COME I 1983 10 I 1 1 1984 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1 ! ! 1985 1 1 1 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from farming Net farm income Gross farm income Period Cash marketing receipts Total ' Total Livestock and products Crops 1978 1979 1980. 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 128.4 150.7 149.3 166.3 163.4 152.4 174.4 166.6 112.4 131.5 139.7 141.6 142.6 136.5 142.2 142.1 59.2 69.2 68.0 69.2 70.2 69.5 72.9 69.4 53.2 62.3 71.7 72.5 72.4 67.0 69.2 72.7 1983- I II 154.9 148.3 155.5 151.1 143.1 137.1 142.9 122.8 174.4 168.0 173.8 181.4 136.5 141.2 144.1 146.8 170.7 164.7 157.4 173.5 137.3 135.1 139.8 156.2 129.1 127.9 124.4 70.9 69.2 68.2 69.5 75.6 71.4 71.6 73.1 69.2 67.8 68.0 72.6 65.6 67.0 76.4 Ill IV 1984- I II Ill IV 1985- I II HI IV 1986- I II in 145.6 165.1 141.7 Value of inventory changes 2 Production expenses 60.9 69.8 72.5 73.8 1.7 7.0 9.0 7.5 141.6 142.2 142.0 140.9 68.1 67.4 71.8 83.6 3.0 3 -2.6 -4.5 139.0 137.1 135.2 133.2 63.5 60.9 48.0 3 103.2 123.3 133.1 139.4 140.7 139.5 141.7 136.1 72.2 67.9 74.8 53.2 1.9 5.0 -6.3 6.5 -1.3 -10.9 6.3 -1.1 -11.6 -13.5 -11.6 -6.8 -2.9 -2.8 -2.5 Current dollars 131.2 129.4 127.7 139.3 139.0 139.3 140.2 1982 dollars 3 25.2 27.4 16.1 26.9 22.7 13.0 32.7 30.5 15.6 9.3 16.1 10.9 32.7 25.8 31.8 40.5 31.7 27.6 22.2 40.3 14.4 35.7 14.0 Income in current dollars divided by the GNP implicit price deflator (1982= 100). NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Corporation loans and operator households. Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce. 34.9 34.9 18.8 28.6 22.7 12.5 30.2 27.3 15.2 9.0 15.5 10.3 30.7 23.9 29.3 36.9 28.7 24.8 19.8 35.7 12.6 31.5 12.2 CORPORATE PROFITS In the third quarter of 1986, corporate profits before tax rose $12.7 billion (annual rate) and after-tax profits rose $7.1 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320 320 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 280 280 /, PROFITS BEFORE TAX r—1\/ / I 240 _/" ±^ 200 Z \ 160 r _---' \ ^ | \ ^ '-""""" N 120 N •—^ / j — """ / . 200 160 / \ \ » ,' " / A- ~--"'--_ ~"V K / - -Nsx \+" ! 240 ^-~\ . "~v» PROF TS AFTER TAX ^ fs 80 / \ \ ,~~~ v ,,' „•"* s ^. x — 120 / \ "\\.,-— - ,""''' TAX LIABILITY ""^Vt-^ -s.---V.... V--" X ..---\ / \ 40 80 / \ --'*' 40 UNO STRIBUTED PR 3FITS \ i i \ \ 1978 1 1 1979 1 I 1 ] 1981 1980 1 1 1 1 1983 1982 i i 1 1 I 1984 1 .. . L .. I 1986 1985 COUNCIL OF CONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMEN OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment 1 Profits after tax Domestic industries Total 2 Total Financial Total 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 p 1982- IV 1983- IV 1984- I n m IV 1985- I II m rv 1986- I II mp rv 1 2 3 194.0 202.3 159.2 196.7 230.2 222.6 242.9 150.7 223.4 235.7 241.5 223.3 220.3 213.3 215.4 235.3 226.4 239.0 238.3 246.5 3 Manufacturing 138.6 157.3 119.4 148.5 183.8 169.7 178.1 77.1 88.5 58.0 70.1 87.4 73.0 73.4 21.6 32.5 34.6 38.9 49.7 49.7 50.7 237.1 121.6 190.7 18.7 102.9 15.5 175.2 16.6 15.4 13.4 16.1 188.6 196.1 177.8 172.6 18.2 21.1 21.7 23.2 27.8 29.1 28.9 164.4 162.7 183.6 168.1 172.8 176.3 182.9 33.6 43.1 46.2 51.1 51.0 50.7 48.8 51.1 54.2 45.0 52.1 46.3 53.3 164.1 231.5 205.2 46.8 88.6 95.0 94.6 81.3 78.9 70.4 68.2 79.0 74.5 66.7 76.8 75.6 207.4 211.5 191.3 188.8 182.6 183.8 205.3 191.3 200.6 205.4 211.8 Tax liability Wholesale and retail trade 21.0 16.5 11.8 18.1 15.4 21.0 29.3 159.6 173.8 131.2 166.6 199.2 190.8 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. Includes industries not shown separately. Profits before tax Nonfinancial Period 226.5 169.6 207.6 235.7 223.2 236.6 249.3 246.5 225.1 221.9 213.8 213.8 229.2 235.8 222.5 227.7 240.4 84.8 81.1 63.1 77.2 95.4 91.8 102.8 59.8 88.1 102.9 101.6 89.3 87.8 87.8 87.1 95.8 96.4 95.7 99.0 104.4 Total Dividends 152.3 145.4 106.5 130.4 140.3 131.4 133.8 54.7 63.6 66.9 71.5 78.3 81.6 87.8 104.3 68.5 143.4 73.9 146.4 144.8 135.8 134.1 76.0 78.1 79.0 80.1 126.0 126.7 133.4 139.4 126.9 128.8 135.9 Undistributed profits 80.9 81.4 81.6 82.5 85.2 87.5 88.8 89 7 NOTE.—Corporate profits and related measures for the first 3 quartei ed to reflect retroactive provisions of the Tax Reform Act of 1986. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau, of Economic Analysis. 97.6 81.8 39.6 58.9 62.0 49.8 46.0 35.8 69.5 70.4 66.7 56.8 54.0 45.1 45.3 51.8 57.0 41.7 41.2 47.2 Inventory valuation adjustment -43.1 — 24.2 -10.4 -10.9 -5.5 -.6 6.3 -13.4 -8.1 -13.6 -4.9 -1.8 -1.6 -.5 1.6 6.1 -9.4 16.5 10.6 6.1 -8.0 of 1986 have been adjust- GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to preliminary estimates for the fourth quarter of 1986, nonresidential fixed investment fell $0.9 billion (annual rate) from its third quarter level while residential investment outlays rose $3.3 billion. There was an $8.3 billion decrease in inventories following a decrease of $4.5 billion in the third quarter. BILLIC3NS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DDL .ARS 800 800 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 700 700 "~~"~^_ ^ GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 600 ' / / 600 — r^i 500 M ~^nr""—""""" 400 --^. 300 —„---" ~. ~ —— 200 100 0 -100 1978 3OURCE : DEPARTMEN 500 --- / ^--*'" \-""\ 400 — ,. NONRESIDE NTIAL FIXED INVES MENT 300 — RESIDENTIAL INVESTME MT FI <ED 200 \ — ^ 100 CHf i,NGE —\ i i i 1979 IN BUSIK ESS INVENTORIES /X -^ - /N^ " * • * * • 0 ^^ 1 1 1 ""~Y i i i 1981 1980 . 1982 1 1 ! 1983 1 I 1 1984 OF COMMERCE 1 1 1 1985 I I I -100 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Change in business inventories Fixed investment Period Gross private domestic investment 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 p 1982- IV 1983- IV 1984- I II ni IV 1985- I II TJI rv 1986- I TJ Ill rv Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 454.8 437.0 515.5 447.3 502.3 662.1 661.1 686.4 409.6 579.8 659.5 657.5 670.3 661.1 650.6 667.1 657.4 669.5 708.3 687.3 675.8 674.5 Nonresidential Total 441.9 445.3 491.5 471.8 509.4 598.0 650.0 675.1 469.5 548.8 564.0 597.6 605.8 624.4 625.2 648.0 654.3 672.6 664.4 672.8 680.3 682.7 Total 302.8 322.8 369.2 366.7 356.9 416.5 458.2 458.5 354.9 383.9 388.2 413.3 421.8 442.9 439.8 459.2 459.8 474.0 459.2 457.5 459.0 458.1 Structures 99.5 113.9 138.5 143.3 124.0 139.3 154.8 143.6 137.6 127.4 129.7 139.1 141.4 146.7 150.7 156.1 155.0 157.2 154.6 141.5 139.5 138.6 Producers' durable equipment 203.3 208.9 230.7 223.4 232.8 277.3 303.4 314.9 217.3 256.5 258.4 274.1 280.4 296.2 289.1 303.1 304.7 316.8 304.6 316.0 319.5 319.5 Residential 139.1 122.5 122.3 105.1 152.5 181.4 191.8 216.6 114.7 164.9 175.8 184.4 184.0 181.5 185.4 188.8 194.5 198.6 205.3 215.3 221.3 224.6 Total 13.0 -8.3 24.0 -24.5 -7.1 64.1 11.1 11.4 -59.9 31.0 95.5 59.9 64.4 36.7 25.4 19.1 3.1 -3.1 43.8 14.5 -4.5 -8.3 Nonfarm 7.9 -2.4 18.3 -23.1 .4 56.6 12.2 11.8 -51.1 21.3 71.5 56.8 62.1 35.9 18.5 10.4 3.2 16.7 41.2 10.5 -10.3 5.7 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT According to the Commerce Department October-November 1986 survey, business spending for new plant and equipment for the year 1986 is expected to be 1.7 percent below the 1985 level, while spending in 1987 is expected to be 0.9 percent above the 1986 level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 600 iOO 40 0 400 r—^ 300 1 -— , ^ ^ ~ H1 Al -— — ^ 1 300 J I INDUSTRIES — ,-^~ 200 ..-- ;;;: _- rr'" " " NOWMNUFACTURi go^7 200 "x -'- — ,'*• .__. _--100 AANUFACTURI 100 —- ' " — 80 80 — — 60 60 — 40 40 1 1 1 1979 1 1 1 1980 1 1 1 1 1981 1 1 1982 I I I I 1 I 1 1984 1 1 1983 1985 \ 1 2J .£/ J/ 1 1 1 _!/ SURVEYED QUARTERLY _2_/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE: 1 1987 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Addenda Industries surveyed quarterly Nonmanufacturing Manufacturing All industries Total 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 * 1987 4 217.76 254.96 282.80 315.22 310.58 304.78 354.44 387.13 380.69 384.24 78.58 95.92 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.48 144.77 141.95 1985' I 11 III IV 373.56 387.86 389.23 397.88 1986- I II Ill 4 1987' I 44 Period rv .. n Nonmanufacturing Nondurable goods Total 1 Mining Transportation Public utilities Commercial and other 39.46 48.50 55.36 59.81 55.35 53.08 66.24 73.27 69.96 69.50 39.13 47.42 56.96 66.73 65.33 63.12 72.58 80.21 74.81 72.44 139.18 159.04 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.65 235.91 242.30 11.22 12.81 15.99 21.39 20.05 15.19 16.86 15.88 11.24 10.11 13.36 16.05 16.60 15.84 14.79 13.97 16.52 18.02 18.64 18.86 31.50 35.63 37.74 41.21 45.43 44.96 47.48 48.81 46.53 44.42 83.09 94.56 100.14 110.24 109.63 114.45 134.75 150.94 159.50 168.91 146.94 154.25 154.47 158.26 70.29 74.34 72.99 75.47 76.64 79.91 81.48 82.79 226.62 233.61 234.76 239.61 15.81 16.56 15.89 15.25 16.70 17.45 18.81 19.15 48.44 48.61 48.44 49.79 145.68 150.99 151.62 155.42 146.94 154.25 154.47 158.26 377.94 375.92 374.55 394.34 144.03 141.68 139.21 154.17 68.01 68.33 69.31 74.17 76.02 73.35 69.89 80.00 233.90 234.24 235.34 240.17 12.99 11.23 10.15 10.62 18.22 18.28 19.03 19.02 47.03 46.55 45.90 46.63 155.67 158.18 160.25 163.91 144.03 141.68 139.21 154.17 233.90 234.24 235 34 240.17 386.82 393.39 141.22 145.23 67.86 72.37 73.36 72.85 245.60 248.16 10.36 10.58 19.85 18.46 46.32 46.90 169.08 172.22 141.22 145.23 Surveyed annually 3 226.62 233.61 23476 239.61 245.60 248 16 Durable goods 1 Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May 1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nonmanufacturing surveyed annually") for data for these industries. 2 "All industries" plus the part of nonmanufacturing that is surveyed annually. 10 Total nonfarm business 2 245.34 284.94 314.47 349.26 347.47 343.35 398.99 431.94 Manufacturing 78.58 95.92 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.48 144.77 141.95 Total 166.76 189.02 202.15 222.72 226.79 227.15 260.16 278.46 Surveyed quarterly 139.18 159.04 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.65 235.91 242.30 27.58 29.98 31.68 34.04 36.89 38.56 44.55 44.81 3 Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical sen-ices; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate. 4 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in October-November 1986, corrected for biases. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE In December, seasonally adjusted civilian employment rose 205,000 and unemployment fell 294,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 120 1986 1978 *16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADViSERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Period Noninstitutional population including resident Armed Forces Civilian employment Resident Armed Forces NSA T H r f including resident Armed Forces Employment including resident Armed Forces Nonagricultural Chilian labor force Total Agricultural Total NSA 1979 1980 1981 1982 ... 1983 1984 1985 1986* 1985: Dec r... 1986: Jan* r .. Feb r... Mar "... Apr T ... May r... June r.. July'.. Aug '... Sept '.. Oct \... Nov r... Dec 166,460 169,349 171,775 173,939 175,891 178,080 179,912 182,293 180,810 181,361 181,512 181,678 181,843 181,998 182,183 182,354 182,525 182,713 182,935 183,114 183,297 1,597 1,604 1,645 1,668 1,676 1,697 1,706 1,706 1,698 1,691 1,691 1,693 1,695 1,687 1,680 1,672 1,697 1,716 1,749 1,751 1,750 106,559 108,544 110,315 111,872 113,226 115,241 117,167 119,540 118,031 118,485 118,733 118,880 118,987 119,274 119,685 119,789 119,821 119,988 120,163 120,426 120,336 100,421 100,907 102,042 101,194 102,510 106,702 108,856 111,303 109,847 110,583 110,248 110,500 110,664 110,852 111,293 111,559 111,764 111,703 111,941 112,183 112,387 104,962 106,940 108,670 1 10,204 111,550 113,544 115,461 117,834 116,333 116,794 117,042 117,187 117,292 117,587 118,005 118,117 118,124 118,272 118,414 118,675 118,586 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc. 2 Labor force as percent of noninstitutional population (both including resident Armed Forces). 3 Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population. Unemployment 98,824 99,303 100,397 99,526 100,834 105,005 107,150 109,597 108,149 108,892 108,557 108,807 108,969 109,165 109,613 109,887 110,067 109,987 110,192 110,432 110,637 3,347 3,364 3,368 3,401 3,383 3,321 3,179 3,163 3,151 3,280 3,105 3,252 3,199 3,151 3,164 3,124 3,057 3,142 3,162 3,215 3,161 95,477 95,938 97,030 96,125 97,450 101,685 103,971 106,434 104,998 105,612 105,452 105,555 105,770 106,014 106,449 106,763 107,010 106,845 107,030 107,217 107,476 Part-time for economic reasons : 3,373 4,064 4,499 5,852 5,997 5,512 5,334 5,345 5,292 5,297 5,214 5,295 5,567 5,569 5,322 5,222 5,269 5,303 5,450 5,319 5,342 Total 6,137 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,237 8,184 7,902 8,485 8,380 8,323 8,422 8,392 8,230 8,057 8,285 8,222 8,243 7,949 15 weeks and over 1,241 1,871 2,285 3,485 4,210 2,737 2,305 2,232 2,209 2,117 2,332 2,243 2,130 2,232 2,299 2,250 2,272 2,373 2,168 2,217 2,171 Labor force participation rate (percent) Total 2 Civilian 3 64.0 64.1 64.2 64.3 64.4 64.7 63.7 63.8 63.9 64.0 64.0 64.4 64.8 65.3 64.9 65.0 65.1 65.1 65.1 65.2 65.4 65.4 65.3 65.3 65.4 65.4 65.3 65.1 65.6 65.3 65.3 65.4 65.4 65.4 65.5 65.7 65.7 65.6 65.7 65.7 65.8 65.7 * Data beginning January 1986 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of change in estimation procedures. Note.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1982. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In December, the seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage point to 6.6 percent; the civilian unemployment rate also fell 0.2 percentage point, to 6.7 percent. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 25 25 V '. <-( \N \ A'" 20 ..A 20 v, \ v UL BLACK v— • \v 7 •v fN v ' / / TEENAGERS (16-19) \ -v-v xA/ v A '""x-v, 15 15 -\. BLACK AND OTHER 10 10 ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS VVOME N 20 Y EARS AND OVE R <^L/ f x=^_ \ 'WHITE" AAEN20YEAR s AND OVER Illllllllll 1982 1984 1983 1985 1982 1986 Illllllllll Illllllllll llinllllll 1984 1983 1985 Illllllllll 1986 'UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CiVIUAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) Period Unemployment rate, all workers ' By sex and age By selected groups By race Ail Experienced wage and salary workers Married men, spouse present civilian workers Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over 4.2 5.9 6.3 8.8 8.9 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.7 6.4 6.8 8.3 8.1 6.8 6.6 6.2 16.1 17.8 19.6 23.2 22.4 18.9 18.6 18.3 5.1 6.3 6.7 8.6 8.4 6.5 6.2 6.0 11.3 13.1 14.2 17.3 17.8 14.4 13.7 13.1 12.3 14.3 15.6 18.9 19.5 15.9 15.1 14.5 55 9.5 9.5 7.4 7.1 6.9 5.8 7.1 7.6 9.7 9.6 7.5 7.2 7.0 6.9 7.3 9.3 9.2 7.1 6.8 6.6 2.8 4.2 4.3 6.5 6.5 4.6 4.3 4.4 5.8 7.0 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 75 Both sexes 16-19 years White Black and other Black Women who maintain families Labor force time lost (percent) 2 Fulltime workers Parttime workers 8.8 8.8 9.4 6.3 7.9 8.5 10.5 10.4 11.0 10.9 9.8 5.3 6.9 7.3 9.6 9.5 7.2 6.8 6.6 9.3 9.3 9.1 8.6 8.1 7.9 8.3 9.2 10.4 11.7 12.2 10.3 10.4 1985: Dec r ... 6.9 7.0 6.0 6.4 19.0 6.0 13.5 15.0 6.6 4.3 9.6 6.7 9.1 7.9 1986: Jan r.... Feb r.... 6.7 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.7 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.8 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.8 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.7 5.8 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.2 5.9 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.1 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.1 5.9 18.2 18.9 18.4 19.3 18.8 18.9 17.9 18.0 18.5 17.7 18.2 17.3 5.8 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.8 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.8 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.5 12.7 13.1 13.1 12.7 12.7 12.3 14.6 14.9 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.9 14.2 14.6 14.6 14.3 14.2 13.7 6.3 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.3 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.5 4.3 9.9 9.9 6.5 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.3 8.7 9.3 9.1 9.4 9.1 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.1 8.8 7.7 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.1 7.8 7.7 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6 Mar r.... Apr r.... May r... June ''.. July r... Aug '... Sept r... Oct r.... Nov r... Dec Note.—Seasonally adjusted data r Source: Department of Labor, Bu: 12 10.1 9.5 10.1 10.0 9.5 10.1 9.8 8.9 9.7 9.8 SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In December, the percentage of unemployed persons who 'iad been out of work for less than 5 weeks, for 15-26 weeks, and for 27 weeks and over rose while the percentage out of work for 5-14 weeks fell. The mean duration of unemployment and the median rose. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT — 50 JOB LOSERS 40 40 30 REENTRANTS 30 — 20 20 NEW ENTRANTS 10 — \ JOB LEAVERS 1982 1986 1983 1986 1984 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVfSERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Duration of unemployment Period Unemployment (thousands) 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks State programs Number of weeks Percent distribution Less than 5 weeks Reason for unemployment: percent distribution 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Median Job losers Job leavers Reentrants New entrants Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, 'all regular programs (unadjusted) 1 Weekly average, thousands 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,237 43.1 41.7 36.4 33.3 39.2 42.1 41.9 32.3 30.7 31.0 27.4 28.7 30.2 31.0 13.8 13.6 16.0 15.4 12.9 12.3 12.7 10.7 14.0 16.6 23.9 19.1 15.4 14.4 11.9 13.7 15.6 20.0 18.2 15.6 15.0 6.5 6.9 8.7 10.1 7.9 6.8 6.9 51.7 51.6 58.7 58.4 51.8 49.8 48.9 11.7 11.2 7.9 7.7 9.6 10.6 12.3 25.2 25.4 22.3 22.5 25.6 27.1 26.2 11.4 11.9 11.1 11.3 13.0 12.5 12.5 3,350 3,047 4,061 3,396 2,476 r 2,611 488 460 583 438 377 r 396 3,837 3,410 4,594 3,775 2,561 2,692 1985- Dec r 8,184 42.0 30.8 12.4 14.8 15.2 6.8 48.8 11.0 27.5 12.7 2,588 386 2,884 1986- Jan ' Feb r Mar ' 7,902 8,485 8,380 8,323 8,422 8,392 8,230 8,057 8,285 8,222 8,243 7,949 42.2 41.7 42.1 42.7 42.4 40.8 41.6 42.3 41.1 41.9 41.2 42.4 31.3 30.8 31.2 31.8 31.4 31.7 30.9 29.7 30.4 31.5 31.8 30.2 12.5 13.5 12.8 11.8 12.5 12.4 12.9 13.2 13.4 11.7 12.7 12.9 13.9 14.0 13.9 13.8 13.7 15.1 14.6 14.8 15.2 14.9 14.3 14.5 15.0 15.2 14.6 14.7 14.8 15.2 15.1 15.6 15.5 15.2 14.8 15.0 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.8 "2 -.1 ".1 ".1 ".0 7.0 7.1 48.2 49.0 50.1 48.4 49.9 50.6 49.1 47.6 48.9 48.7 48.1 48.9 12.4 11.6 11.8 12.8 11.6 12.0 12.4 12.3 12.6 12.6 12.9 13.0 26.4 26.7 26.1 26.2 26.1 25.0 26.6 27.4 25.9 26.8 25.8 25.4 13.0 12.7 12.0 12.6 12.4 12.4 11.9 12.6 12.6 11.9 13.1 12.8 2,583 2,592 2,630 2,598 2,655 2,678 2,699 2,713 2,707 2,621 2,565 2,515 382 388 392 379 380 378 379 388 370 357 355 357 3,370 3,295 3,144 2,799 2,556 2,474 2,632 2,483 2,335 2,296 2,478 2,841 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 . . May r July ' Sept r Oct ' Nov r Dec Note.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1982. Souree: I)epartment of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Trail ng Administralion). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 269,000 in December. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) 24 MILLIONS OF PERSONS 100 90 ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 80 70 SERVICE-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 60 50 40 — GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 30 20 ML 1982 1983 1985 1984 1982 1986 1986 "SEASONALLY ADJUSTED "SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers; l seasonally adjusted] Service-producing industries Goods-producing industries Period Total nonagrieultural employment Manufacturing Total 2 C nn onstruction Total Durable goods 12,187 90,406 91,156 89,566 90,200 94,496 97,614 100,168 25,658 25,497 4,346 4,188 23,813 23,334 24,727 24,930 24,940 3,905 3,948 4,383 4,687 4,961 20,285 20,170 18,781 18,434 19,378 19,314 19,187 1985: Dec.... 98,910 24,977 4,787 19,289 99,296 99,429 99,484 99,783 99,918 99,843 100,105 100,283 100,560 100,826 101,065 101,334 25,101 25,038 24,945 25,038 24,965 24,854 24,869 24,888 24,858 24,865 24,895 24,932 4,901 4,864 4,838 4,972 4,974 4,947 4,980 5,012 5,010 5,001 4,993 5,004 19,303 19,294 19,255 19,245 19,201 19,135 19,121 19,123 19,105 19,118 19,159 19,190 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 p 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May.... June .. July.... Aug.... Sept... Oct r.. Novr. Dec ".. Nondurable goods Total Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Services 5,160 5,298 5,341 5,468 5,689 5,953 6,304 17,890 18,619 19,036 19,694 20,797 21,974 23,073 16,241 16,031 15,837 15,869 16,024 16,415 16,738 2,739 2,774 2,807 2,875 2,899 Federal 7,873 7,798 7,841 65,753 66,866 69,769 72,684 75,228 5,278 5,268 5,555 5,740 5,853 15,035 15,189 15,179 15,613 16,545 17,360 17,976 11,461 7,828 73,933 5,277 5,809 17,622 6,095 22,501 16,629 2,913 11,466 11,455 11,418 11,415 11,378 11,307 11,294 11,302 11,271 11,266 11,283 11,298 7,837 7,839 7,837 7,830 7,823 7,828 7,827 7,821 7,834 7,852 7,876 7,892 74,195 74,391 74,539 74,745 74,953 74,989 75,236 75,395 75,702 75,961 76,170 76,402 5,286 5,277 5,280 5,266 5,265 5,167 5,288 5,255 5,316 5,316 5,348 5,358 5,830 5,843 5,841 5,864 5,872 5,829 5,849 5,863 5,859 5,864 5,864 5,855 17,734 17,795 17,828 17,851 17,911 17,944 17,992 18,030 18,065 18,143 18,186 18,187 6,123 6,157 6,184 6,228 6,261 6,295 6,334 6,364 6,388 6,409 6,431 6,466 22,585 22,638 22,707 22,825 22,924 23,072 23,176 23,255 23,300 23,359 23,444 23,586 16,637 16,681 16,699 16,711 16,720 16,682 16,597 16,628 16,774 16,870 16,897 16,950 2,918 2,918 2,923 2,914 2,899 2,875 2,866 2,875 2,901 2,896 2,899 2,901 8,098 8,061 7,741 7,702 64,748 65,659 5,275 5,358 2,866 2,772 bad weather, etc., even if thev are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this tahie Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistic; Total 5,146 5,165 5,082 4,954 5,159 5,242 5,285 12,109 11,039 10,732 11,505 11,516 11,346 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the 14 Government Finance, insurance, and real estate AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average weekly hours 1985: Total . ... .. Dec 1986' Jan Feb. Mar May July Sept... Oct Nov r Dec p 35.7 35.3 35.2 34.8 35.0 35.2 34.9 34.8 Adjusted hourly earnings index — total private nonagricultural 2 Percent change 4from a year earlier 5 Ind ex, Manufacturing 1977 1977 dollars 3 Current dollars Current dollars 116.8 127.3 138.9 148.5 155.4 160.3 165.2 169.2 97.4 93.5 92.6 93.4 94.9 94.6 94.1 94.9 3.6 40.8 40.7 40.7 40.7 40.7 40.6 40.6 40.8 40.8 40.7 40.8 40.9 7.25 7.68 8.02 8.32 8.57 8.76 $6.70 7.27 7.99 8.49 8.83 9.19 9.53 9.73 8.70 9.68 167.7 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 40.9 35.0 34.9 34.9 34.8 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.6 Total private nonagrieultural ' Overtime 40.2 39.7 39.8 38.9 40.1 40.7 40.5 40.7 34.9 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 p. Manufacturing Total private nonagricultural l Period Average gross hourlv earnings 8.68 8.71 8.73 8.72 8.73 8.74 8.73 8.77 r 8.76 8.80 8.85 8.84 9.65 9.68 9.70 9.68 9.72 9.71 9.73 9.76 9.74 9.77 9.77 9.80 167.3 168.2 168.5 168.4 168.7 169.2 168.9 169.3 169.6 170.0 170.9 170.8 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.5 $6.16 6.66 1977 dollars 7.9 9.0 9.1 6.9 4.6 3.2 3.1 2.4 -3.1 -4.0 -1.0 .9 1.6 94.0 3.1 -.5 93.5 94.4 95.1 95.4 95.4 95.2 95.1 95.1 95.0 95.1 95.4 95.1 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.3 1.9 2.3 2.4 1.8 -.9 2 '.9 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.1 .6 1.1 1.5 1.1 0 -.5 .9 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Percent change from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural5 Average gross weekly earnings Period Current dollars 1979 1980 1981.... 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 p Manufacturing Total private nonagricultural l Construction Retail trade Current dollars 1977 dollars 3 1977 dollars Current dollars $219.91 235.10 255.20 267.26 280.70 292.86 299.09 304.85 $183.41 172.74 170.13 168.09 171.26 172.78 170.42 171.07 $269.34 288.62 318.00 330.26 354.08 374.03 385.97 396.01 $342.99 367.78 399.26 426.82 442.97 458.51 464.09 465.75 $138.62 147.38 158.03 163.85 171.05 174.33 174.64 175.78 8.0 6.9 8.5 4.7 5.0 4.3 2.1 1.9 -3.1 -5.8 -1.5 -1.2 1.9 .9 -1.4 .4 1985- Dec 303.63 170.20 395.91 461.28 175.78 2.5 — 1.1 1986' Jan Feb Mar 303.80 303.98 304.68 303.46 303.80 303.28 302.93 305.20 ' 303.97 305.36 307.98 305.86 169.72 170.58 171.94 171.93 171.83 170.67 170.57 171.46 r 170.29 170.78 171.86 170.30 393.72 393.98 394.79 393.98 395.60 394.23 395.04 398.21 397.39 397.64 398.62 400.82 470.40 448.59 450.06 465.22 464.25 461.15 463.76 467.37 468.61 469.88 471.85 472.36 175.51 175.51 176.09 174.91 174.91 174.60 175.20 176.08 176.66 176.06 176.95 173.95 3.1 2.5 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.0 1.4 2.0 .7 -.6 -.5 .4 .9 .7 May July Sept Oct r Nov T Dec p 4 5 .5 .6 -.3 .2 1.1 .1 Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places. Based on seasonally unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 68-373 0 - 8 7 - 2 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output per hour of al] persons Period Business sector Nonfarm business seetor Output ' Business sector Hours of all persons 2 •• Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Compens a ion per hm r 3 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real compensation per lour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit labor eosts Implic t price defla or 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 1977—100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 1978 1979 100.8 99.6 100.8 99.3 105.8 107.9 106.0 107.9 104.9 108.3 105.1 108.7 108.5 119.1 108.6 118.9 100.8 99.4 100.9 99.2 107.6 119.5 107.7 119.7 107.3 117.0 107.0 116.5 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 99.3 100.7 100.3 103.0 105.3 98.8 99.8 99.2 102.4 104.3 106.7 108.9 105.5 109.9 118.8 106.7 108.5 104.9 110.1 118.8 107.5 108.2 105.2 106.7 112.8 108.0 108.7 105.7 107.5 114.0 131.5 143.7 154.9 161.5 168.1 131.3 143.6 154.8 161.5 167.9 96.7 95.7 97.3 98.2 98.1 96.6 95.7 97.2 98.2 98.0 132.5 142.7 154.5 156.8 159.7 132.9 144.0 156.0 157.7 161.0 127.6 139.8 148.1 153.0 158.5 127.8 140.3 149.2 154.3 159.3 1985 1986" 106.4 107.1 104.8 105.5 122.7 125.8 122.5 125.8 115.3 117.5 116.9 119.3 175.3 180.9 174.6 179.9 98.8 100.0 98.4 99.4 164.8 168.9 166.7 170.5 163.0 166.4 164.6 168.2 1982: IV 101.0 99.7 105.0 104.2 103.9 104.5 158.3 158.2 97.9 97.8 156.8 158.7 150.2 151.4 1983: IV 103.8 103.3 113.6 114.1 109.4 110.5 163.6 163.4 98.0 97.9 157.7 158.2 155.2 156.2 1984: I II III IV 104.9 105.6 105.5 105.5 103.9 104.6 104.4 104.3 116.9 119.0 119.5 120.2 116.9 119.1 119.5 120.2 111.4 112.7 113.3 114.0 112.5 113.8 114.5 115.2 165.9 167.1 169.0 170.6 165.6 166.9 168.7 170.4 98.1 97.9 98.1 98.2 97.9 97.8 98.0 98.1 158.2 158.3 160.2 161.7 159.4 159.5 161.5 163.3 156.7 157.7 159.0 160.3 157.2 158.4 160.0 161.4 1985- I II Ill IV 105.7 106.4 107.3 106.4 104.4 104.9 105.4 104.5 121.3 122.3 123.5 123.8 121.1 122.1 123.3 123.6 114.8 115.0 115.2. 116.4 116.0 116.4 116.9 118.2 172.3 174.5 176.4 178.0 172.1 174.0 175.4 177.0 98.4 98,7 99.1 99.0 98.2 98.4 98.5 98.4 163.1 164.0 164.4 167.3 164.8 165.9 166.3 169.3 161.4 162.6 163.4 164.6 162.7 164.1 165.2 166.2 1986: 107.3 107.4 107.3 106.7 105.6 105.7 105.7 105.2 125.3 125.4 126.0 126.7 125.1 125.3 126.1 126.9 116.8 116.7 117.4 118.7 118.5 118.5 119.4 120.6 179.1 180.4 181.7 182.8 178.3 179.3 180.4 181.7 99.2 100.3 100.4 100.3 98.8 99.8 99.7 99.8 167.0 168.0 169.3 171.3 168.8 169.6 170.7 172.7 165.3 165.8 167.2 167.1 167.1 167.5 169.0 169.0 I II III r.... IV.... Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 1978 1979 0.8 -1.2 0.8 -1.6 5.8 2.0 6.0 1.9 4.9 3.2 5.1 3.5 8.5 9.7 8.6 9.5 0.8 -1.4 0.9 -1.6 7.6 11.1 7.7 11.2 7.3 9.0 7.0 8.9 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 — .3 1.4 2.7 2.3 -.4 1.0 -.6 3.3 1.8 — 1.1 2.1 -3.1 4.2 8.1 -1.2 1.7 -3.3 4.9 8.0 -.8 .7 -2.8 1.5 5.7 — .7 .7 -2.7 1.6 6.0 10.5 9.2 7.8 4.2 4.1 10.5 9.4 7.8 4.3 4.0 -2.7 -1.0 1.6 1.0 — .1 — 2.7 -.9 1.5 1.1 -.3 10.9 7.7 8.3 1.5 1.8 11.0 8.3 8.4 1.1 2.1 9.0 9.6 5.9 3.3 3.5 9.7 9.7 6.3 3.5 3.2 1.0 .7 .5 .7 3.3 2.5 3.0 2.8 2.2 1.9 2.6 2.0 4.3 3.2 4.0 3.0 .7 1.3 .4 1.1 3.2 2.5 3.5 2.3 2.9 2.1 3.3 2.2 3.0 2.4 -.5 — 1.2 4.5 5.1 2.9 3.4 1.5 2.6 2.4 3.0 9.8 7.3 8.4 5.3 4.4 1.1 .1 2.4 3.0 4.8 3.1 1985 1986 1982: ..... 4. p IV -3.4 -3.5 IV 2.8 1.3 10.4 1984- I II Ill IV 4.4 2.6 ^ -.1 2.4 2.9 — .7 — .4 12.2 7.5 1.7 2.5 10.2 7.7 1.6 2.2 7.4 4.8 2.1 2.6 7.6 4.7 2.3 2.6 5.7 2.8 4.6 3.8 5.4 3.2 4.3 4.2 .5 -.8 .8 .1 .3 — .4 .4 .5 1.2 .2 5.0 3.9 3.0 .3 5.1 4.6 4.0 2.6 3.4 3.2 2.7 3.1 4.0 3.7 1985- I 11 Ill IV 9 2.7 3.4 -3.2 .3 1.8 2.2 -3.5 3.6 3.3 4.1 1.0 3.2 3.0 4.0 1.0 2.6 .6 .7 4.3 2.9 1.2 1.8 4.6 4.2 5.1 4.4 3.8 3.9 4.6 3.2 3.7 1.0 1.0 1.8 -.5 .7 .5 .7 -.6 3.3 2.4 1.0 7.2 3.6 2.7 1.0 7.4 2.7 3.0 1.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 2.6 2.4 1986: 3.3 .5 -.4 -2.3 4.3 .5 4.7 .3 2.0 2.1 5.1 .6 2.6 2.4 1.4 2 2.4 4.5 .8 .1 2.9 4.2 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.4 3.1 2.3 2.3 3.1 1.0 4.5 .3 — .4 1.6 4.0 2 .2 — .7 2.3 3.3 4.9 -1.2 1.8 2.6 4.9 1.8 1.2 3.4 -.2 2.3 1.0 3.6 .0 1983: I II Ill r.... IV.... 1 9 -1.7 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1982 dollars. Hours of a]l persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed. 2 16 4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers. 5 Current dollar gross domestic product divided bv constant dollar gross domestic product. NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; thev therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose 0.5 percent in December, following a rise of 0.6 percent in November. The index for December was 0.9 percent above its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) 220 FINAL PRODUCTS 200 INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) 140 _ TOTAL NDUSTRIA L PRODUCTION p, " 120 -^ ,_.- 180 ^_ uti-CNSE AND SPACE — S" -r""* 160 100 /"""""" 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 in 1 1 [ 111 1M 11 Mini. Ml, 11 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 V-1 140 EQUIPMENT _^_ .-"*• 140 — MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION DURABLE ^^«<[ r \ NONDURAB 120 — 100 "X/^ ^C^_ ^^ - 1- 120 100 E x_ ^ f „,.-* -~'\ ~" CONSUMER GOODS ,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,!,,,,, ,,,,,!,,,,, I II III 1 II II s ^ jii 1 1 ILL 1 1 1 1 1 1 II 1 1 1 1 f 1 ~s ^~~ PEF 1 1 1 1 1 1 II 1 1! 1 1 111 11 11 11 1 1M 1 11111 I 90 _ MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE_ 140 _ UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION 120 ,A -\ A^*<T3£, M 100 ^f ^r["MINING M, n i l , MI l i i n l i i i n i i M i | i i i n 1982 1983 1984 iinii 1985 _ 80 UIILMItb 70 ^ m.^i" 60 1982 1986 ^ 1 1 M 1 1 II 1 1 1 1984 1 I M 1 1I 1 1 11 | 1 1 M 1 I 1 1 1 I 1983 "SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 M I t 1 1 M 1f 1 \ 1 M 1985 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Period Index, 1977 = 100 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986P 1985- Dec 1986- Jan Feb Mar May Julv Sept r Oct r Nov r Dcc p .. 100.0 110.7 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.4 123.8 125.1 125.6 126.2 125.3 123.6 124.7 124.2 124.2 124.9 125.1 124.9 125.3 126.0 126.6 Capacity utilization rate, percent 1 Industry production indexes, 1977=100 To al indus trial produ ction Manufacturing Percent change from year earlier 3.9 -1.9 2.2 -7.1 5.9 11.2 2.0 1.1 2.3 2.9 1.7 .2 1.2 .5 .5 1.2 .5 .5 1.4 1.0 .9 Mining Total 84.21 111.5 108.2 110.5 102.2 110.2 123.4 126.4 129.2 128.2 129.4 128.7 127.2 128.7 128.2 128.3 129.2 129.5 129.5 129.9 130.5 131.4 Durable 49.10 113.9 109.1 111.1 99.9 107.7 124.2 127.3 128.0 128.7 129.5 128.7 126.8 128.1 127.0 126.2 127.4 127.5 128.1 128.2 128.7 129.6 Utilities Nondurable 35.11 108.2 107.0 109.7 105.5 113.7 122.3 125.1 130.9 127.5 129.3 128.7 127.7 129.6 129.9 131.2 131.7 132.2 131.4 132.3 133.1 133.8 9.83 106.4 112.4 117.5 109.3 102.9 111.1 108.8 99.6 107.4 108.1 105.1 103.0 101.0 99.8 98.9 97.1 96.4 96.2 95.9 96.6 97.0 5.96 105.9 107.3 107.1 104.8 105.2 110.7 111.9 109.7 114.8 112.5 109.7 109.3 109.4 108.5 108.6 109.7 108.3 108.3 109.5 110.9 110.6 Manufacturing 84.6 79.3 78.3 70.3 74.0 80.5 80.1 79.8 80.2 80.8 80.2 79.1 79.9 79.4 79.3 79.7 79.7 79.6 79.7 79.9 80.3 Industrial materials 87.1 81.1 81.1 71.7 75.3 82.0 80.2 78.5 80.3 80.1 79.6 78.5 78.7 78.1 78.0 78.3 77.9 78.1 77.9 78.5 78.6 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Materials Products Final products Intermediate products Consumer goods Equipment Period Total Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total ' Business Defense and space equipment Total Construction supplies Business supplies Total Energy 1977 proportion 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 p 44.77 111.0 112.2 115.2 109.5 114.7 127.3 131.1 132.4 25.52 103.9 102.7 104.1 101.4 109.3 118.0 120.2 124.5 6.89 99.9 88.4 89.7 82.9 98.5 112.2 112.9 116.0 18.63 105.4 108.1 109.3 108.3 113.3 120.1 122.9 127.6 19.25 120:4 124.7 129.9 120.2 121.7 139.6 145.4 142.9 14.34 124.7 125.1 127.6 113.6 115.4 134.2 139.6 138.8 3.67 105.6 115.4 119.8 133.0 143.1 156.4 170.6 180.2 12.94 110.8 106.9 107.3 101.7 111.2 124.7 130.0 136.3 5.95 108.7 100.6 98.6 88.3 100.6 114.0 118.3 124.6 6.99 112.7 112.3 114.7 113.1 120.3 133.8 140.0 42,28 110.3 105.3 107.7 96.7 102.8 114.2 114.2 113.9 11.69 104.1 105.5 104.7 101.2 98.4 103.9 103.4 100.0 1985- Dec 133.2 123.3 115.3 126.3 146.4 140.0 178.5 132.0 119.8 142.4 115.4 104.5 123.8 123.3 121.8 124.5 124.3 124.4 125.2 125.1 124.2 124.9 125.8 126.9 116.0 116.6 112.4 115.9 113.8 114.3 116.3 115.7 117.4 116.6 117.4 119.4 178.7 176.3 176.2 178.0 178.0 178.4 179.5 181.0 182.0 183.6 184.5 186.2 134.2 133.4 133.3 134.5 135.1 137.0 137.3 137.8 137.0 138.4 138.5 139.2 124.0 122.6 122.6 123.6 123.5 124.1 124.0 125.4 125.9 126.0 126.3 126.7 142.9 142.6 142.5 143.8 145.0 147.9 148.6 148.4 146.4 148.9 149.0 115.5 114.8 113.3 113.8 113.0 113.1 113.6 113.2 113.5 113.4 114.5 114.7 103.0 102.1 101.4 100.4 100.5 100.8 99.9 97.9 98.0 97.4 98.7 99.1 1986- Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July. . . Aug Sept r Oct r Nov r Dec p. . 1 133.9 132.8 130.6 132.1 131.6 131.1 132.0 132.6 132.2 132.7 133.4 134.2 126.6 125.8 125.3 127.7 128.1 128.1 128.4 128.6 126.7 127.9 128.9 129.7 147.5 145.4 142.3 142.3 141.2 140.0 141.0 142.5 142.8 143.1 143.5 143.9 141.5 140.5 137.7 138.6 137.9 136.6 137.9 139.3 139.3 139.2 139.2 139.3 Includes rigs and prefabs, not shown separately. [1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Nondurable manufactures Durable manufactures Transportation equipment Primary metals Period Total 1977 proportion 1979 1980 . .. 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 p Iron and steel Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery Total Motor vehicles and parts Lumber and products Apparel products Printing and publishing cals and products Foods 5.33 108.5 90.4 95.0 65.8 73.0 82.3 80.5 760 3.49 108.0 86.3 92.5 57.5 66.1 73.4 70.4 6.46 109.4 101.8 101.6 86.6 89.1 102.6 107.3 107.4 9.54 122.6 123.3 129.8 115.6 118.3 141.8 145.3 142.3 7.15 125.7 130.3 134.1 128.4 143.8 170.5 168.4 166.5 9.13 108.3 96.9 95.1 87.6 99.2 112.2 121.4 125.9 5.25 95.9 71.1 71.6 66.8 85.8 104.4 111.5 110.9 2.30 102.0 92.9 90.1 82.8 100.2 109.1 113.4 2. 79 98.3 97.3 96.1 87.3 95.3 102.7 100.9 4.54 112.7 115.1 118.6 120.2 129.8 146.5 153.9 163.5 8.05 111.4 106.4 112.6 103.8 114.0 121.6 127.1 7.96 106.7 111.4 113.7 114.9 120.4 126.9 130.2 1985- Dec 81.7 71.6 108.2 146.2 168.7 124.0 111.4 116.1 104.5 157.6 128.1 132.1 1986- Jan Feb Mar Apr 82.4 80.3 76.3 78.1 74.8 71.4 73.6 73.4 74.1 74.2 76.8 75 9 72.2 69.5 64.3 65.6 60.2 58.3 61,7 60.8 61.1 62.2 64.6 109.2 108.5 107.6 108.2 106.5 106.6 105.7 105.9 107.3 108.0 107.5 108.1 144.9 143.9 141.7 140.8 141.3 140.4 142.6 142.6 140.9 142.9 142.6 142.9 166.1 164.8 165.2 166.8 166.0 163.2 166.8 167.2 166.9 167.8 167.9 169.7 128.2 127.5 122.6 126.2 124.1 125.1 125.6 125.1 127.7 125.2 125.7 127.8 116.5 116.4 108.1 112.6 108.7 110.6 111.2 108.2 112.2 107.1 107.8 111.5 120.5 120.3 120.7 121.3 121.6 120.9 120.8 122.5 125.0 124.8 105.5 102.8 102.8 103.1 102.6 101.7 102.5 102.5 102.7 104.1 105.7 160.9 156.7 157.8 161.6 161.9 164.0 165.4 164.6 163.0 168.0 167.8 1686 131.7 132.0 130.2 132.8 131.5 134.2 134.1 134.4 133.9 134.2 134.2 132.0 132.9 132.2 133.1 133.7 134.6 134.3 135.1 134.3 133.5 134.5 June July Aue.... Sept r Oct ' Nov r Dec p Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstem 18 NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Construction contracts 3 Private Total new construction expenditures Period Residential Commercial Total and New housing units Total ' industrial z Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1977=100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) Billions of dollars 1983 1984 1985 1986 " 250.3 249.0 257.8 244.4 279.2 327.2 355.6 376.9 201.5 194.0 204.4 193.6 228.5 272.0 292.8 305.7 117.2 101.1 100.0 85.4 126.6 155.1 158.8 174.6 1985- Dec 365.6 300.6 161.8 1986: 373.4 373.9 368.0 373.9 374.5 375.4 380.7 382.6 382.6 384.3 377.9 376.0 305.4 305.7 298.9 303.3 302.6 304.6 309.0 310.2 308.6 310.7 307.3 302.6 163.4 164.7 165.6 170.5 172.5 174.5 178.8 178.8 178.5 181.9 180.9 179.0 1979 1980 1981 1982 42.3 46.2 49.4 49.5 48.1 48.2 51.3 51.3 118.7 88.2 50.6 64.9 162 951 122.8 124.7 126.5 129.4 132.4 135.2 136.6 137.8 138.5 139.7 139.9 139.0 88.4 87.5 81.4 81.8 78.7 78.3 79.3 81.1 79.3 77.5 76.1 73.0 53.5 53.5 51.8 51.0 51.3 51.8 50.9 50.3 50.9 51.3 50.3 50.6 68.0 68.3 69.2 70.6 71.9 70.8 71.7 72.4 74.0 73.6 70.6 73.5 154 174 163 186 171 169 171 168 158 170 171 175 848 941 840 1,011 921 911 877 949 970 861 1,025 940 48.8 55.0 53.3 50.8 50.7 55.2 62.8 71.2 121.0 108.0 112.0 111.0 138.0 150.0 161.0 173.0 Annual rates Jan Feb Mar Apr June July r Aug r Sept T Oct T Nov" Dec" 1,059 904 919 690 756 955 ' 1,097 996 42.0 46.7 55.0 58.7 53.8 68.6 82.7 79.9 90.1 70.4 70.2 57.7 95.7 115.1 116.0 134.0 1 Includes the following categories of private construction not shown separately: residential improvements, railroads, electric light and power, gas, petroleum pipelines, and farm nonresidential. 2 Includes hotels and motels. Annual rates 3 F. W. Dodge series. Sources: Department of Commerce (Burcai of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Svstei Company, F. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New private homes New private housing units Period Units started, hy type of structure Total 1,745.1 1,292.2 1,084.2 1,062.2 1,703.0 1,749.5 1,741.8 1,806.6 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986" 1 unit 1,194.1 852.2 705.4 662.6 1,067.6 1,084.2 1,072.4 1,179.4 2-4 units 122.0 109.5 91.1 80.0 113.5 121.4 93.4 83.7 5 or more units 429.0 330.5 287.7 319.6 522.0 544.0 576.1 543.6 Units authorized 1,551.8 1,190.6 985.5 1,000.5 1,605.2 1,681.8 1,733.3 1,761.5 Units completed Homes sold 1,870.8 1,501.6 1,265.7 1,005.5 1,390.3 1,652.2 1,703.3 709 545 436 412 623 639 688 749 Homes for sale at end of period ' 3 398 336 272 251 300 356 349 362 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 2 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.3 5.7 5.9 6.5 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1985: Nov Dec 1,654 1,882 1,006 1,098 76 83 572 701 1,668 1,839 1,721 1,762 722 729 353 349 1986: Jan Feb Mar 2,034 2,001 1,960 2,019 1,853 1,852 1,782 1,795 1,664 1,628 1,585 1,802 1,335 1,202 1,221 1,242 1,241 1,230 1,137 1,186 1,102 1,085 1,087 1,209 107 115 84 79 83 80 81 89 59 82 67 100 592 684 655 698 529 542 564 520 503 461 431 493 1,861 1,808 1,834 1,885 1,788 1,792 1,759 1,673 1,603 1,565 1,613 1,910 1,778 1,725 1,806 1,693 1,829 1,620 1,761 1,763 r 1,743 1,733 1,749 735 741 924 880 787 722 698 618 r 745 678 685 772 352 352 338 336 336 340 349 r 352 r 355 357 354 362 May June July Sept Oct r Nov r Dec" 1 Seasonally adjusted. 2 Quarterly" data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable with earlier data. 3 New series beginning March 1979. 6.7 6.9 7.3 7.5 7.7 NOTE.—Beginning 1984, units authorized are for 17,000 p Tmit-issuing places and for 1978-83 data are for 16,000 places. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturing and trade sales rose 0.1 percent in November and inventories fell $1.1 billion. According to advance data, retail sales rose 4.4 percent in December after falling 0.6 percent in November. BULK5NS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) ^UU 190 — 180 170 — 160 150 650 600 — 550 500 ' • ^ ^—-S\ MANLJFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES 450 — ~~\ 1 \ M;^NUFACTURI NG AN(D TRADE SA LES 350 r--—-..-. -'-' /**' 120 110 - ^f _ — 90 y..'^-' RETAIL SAl ES _X — i g 1 1 1 1 ii i\ i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 RATIC>* 70 200 1.80 150 1.40 RETAIL \,_ . ^*"°%—— ~ - 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1983 1982 IMMI 1 1 1 11 11 1 1 1 1 p p 1 11 1 1 1 1 1985 1984 1.00 r* X— ^_ MANUFACTURING AND TRADE 1.20 1 1 111 1I 1 1I1 ! 1 i 1t 11 1 1 1I _ INVENTORY-SALES RATIO 1.60 100 — 80 - 250 - ,-,— -''--'' -'"T" 100 300 — s^VE AIL INVENTC3RIES 130 f ,^~—c. _^ XT"" \ 140 -**-,—' "" 400 — 1 111 11 111 11 1 1 11 11 11 1 11 1 1 11 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 11 1 1 11 1 1984 1983 1986 1985 1 t 1 11i 11 t 1t 1982 1986 SEASONALLY ADJ STED c OURCE: DEPARTM NT OF COMMERC Manufacturing and trade * COUNCIL OF ECO NOMIC ADVISERS Wholesale Sales 2 Period Sales 2 Inventories 3 Inventory-sales ratio 4 Retail Sales 2 Inventories 3 Total Durable goods stores Inventories 3 Nondurable goods stores Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Manufacturing and trade ' Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 260,805 298,334 328,058 356,919 344,656 368,724 410,737 424,091 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 . . 1984 1985 1985: Nov r Dec 1986- Jan Feb Apr May July Aug Sept Oct r Nov" Dec p r 399,608 451,460 494,105 528,105 509,555 520,328 575,098 583,148 66,669 79,472 93,704 102,013 96,290 100,424 113,404 114,494 431,012 432,679 582,707 583,148 115,527 116,852 134,927 135,940 431,713 426,854 420,230 428,455 421,613 425,475 427,473 429,310 442,206 435,848 436,131 584,968 585,176 588,178 588,599 586,727 588,908 591,895 590,141 588,069 591,556 590,434 115,648 113,380 112,495 114,608 109,870 112,873 114,375 114,482 117,594 117,991 117,972 136,624 136,561 137,056 137,083 137,506 138,793 139,753 139,742 139,878 139,211 138,837 * See page 21 for manufacturing. Monthly average for year and total for month. Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. 2 3 20 r 115,354 116,743 117,349 117,200 116,684 117,715 118,675 118,960 119,804 121,523 128,331 121,655 T 120,937 126,255 43,863 49,397 55,049 59,688 61,279 64,817 68,939 71,645 102,694 111,098 116,346 127,201 126,497 139,381 157,845 165,324 50,136 54,108 55,117 60,327 58,952 66,928 77,142 82,875 52,558 56,990 61,229 66,874 67,545 72,453 80,703 82,449 1.44 1.43 1.45 1.44 1.51 1.38 1.34 1.37 72,794 73,104 165,787 165,324 83,238 82,875 82,549 82,449 1.35 1.35 73,162 73,251 73,405 72,841 73,121 73,364 73,492 73,611 73,714 73,976 r 74,231 74,808 167,987 169,379 171,551 172,158 170,869 171,705 173,529 172,926 171,617 176,338 175,181 84,755 85,863 88,132 88,263 87,198 88,281 90,271 89,380 86,578 90,134 89,432 83,232 83,516 83,419 83,895 83,671 83,424 83,258 83,546 85,039 86,204 85,749 1.35 1.37 1.40 1.37 1.39 1.38 1.38 1.37 1.33 1.36 1.35 23,368 25,529 24,914 27,089 28,059 33,041 38,817 42,851 67,231 74,926 79,963 86,777 89,339 97,858 107,755 114,495 86,405 99,262 113,478 118,259 118,149 120,265 131,544 135,940 r 42,560 43,639 44,187 43,949 43,279 44,874 45,554 45,596 46,312 47,912 54,617 47,679 T 46,706 51,447 r 1.43 1.44 1.42 1.41 1.41 1.34 1.39 1.40 r 1.44 1.42 1.43 1.45 1.47 1.46 1.44 1.44 1.45 1.42 1.34 1.45 1.45 MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In December, manufacturers' shipments and new orders rose, while inventories and unfilled orders fell. BILLIC)NS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLICDNS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 240 SHIPMENTS 200 360 320 _ ^s 160 280 TOTAL - INVEN TORIF^"— - 120 — r^ —. 240 — - TOTAL 200 •' ..-.a""4"' 80 £ .„. - ~~"N— NO —- 160 ""• -~ -"X \ — DU RABLE GOO 3S •^DURABLE G OODS 120 60 --V — 80 40 1 11111! 1111 1 1 1 11 11 1 1 M 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 M 1111 1 M NO ^DURABLE C OODS 1 1 1 I1 11 1 M 1 60 BILLIC3NS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 240 NEW OT'P''^ 200 ^ ^-p-T~ 160 . ^v 40 n 1 1 iln 1 1 1 1 1 11 il ii , , , II ii ii il , 1 1 ii 1 1 1 III 1 M 1 RATI 3* - 2.2 120 INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO JRABLE GOC 2.0 80 '^-~-^- 1.8 ^ ^H NON DURABLE G DODS '- ---x^' , h\ 1.6 60 ^ -^ N 1.4 40 1.2 1983 1982 SEASONALLY ADJU sOURCE: DEPARTME 1984 1985 H 1 1 1 1 II 1986 1t 1 1 1 1 1 1111 1 1982 It ^ 1 - -^-X 1 1 1 1 1 1 E1 1 11 1983 1 I I I 1 i t I 1 11 1984 1985 imil 1986 STED NT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECC Manufacturers' shipments 1 Manufacturers' inventories 2 Manufacturers' new orders l Durable goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Durable goods Total Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, NOMIC ADVISERS Nondurable goods Manufacturers' unfilled orders 3 non- Manufacturers' inventory — shipments ratio 4 defense Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 " 1985- Dec 1986- Jan Feb Mar May July Aug Sept Oct Nov" Dec p 1 2 3 67,953 76,801 84,199 82,260 85,627 91,024 91,499 89,943 302,145 323,393 319,094 296,918 330,924 355,640 363,809 365,437 107,531 30,566 93,682 363,809 1.42 108,194 107,545 104,682 103,747 102,624 102,730 106,220 103,845 108,723 103,569 r 108,826 109,838 24,288 28,637 26,540 26,179 26,145 26,421 27,387 26,325 28,222 26,912 r 28,442 30,116 92,939 91,014 88,314 89,404 89,498 89,065 88,340 88,991 90,676 88,933 90,628 92,075 366,226 368,511 370,456 367,475 366,529 364,682 365,948 365,479 368,597 364,897 367,129 365,437 1.41 1.42 1.46 1.42 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.41 1.41 1.40 1.35 76,060 77,550 83,872 76,693 84,951 98,502 103,649 105,745 67,876 76,841 84,257 82,334 85,491 91,076 91,452 89,891 241,100 264,281 282,645 264,909 260,682 285,709 281,884 275,846 160,533 174,620 186,347 175,103 171,629 191,109 189,164 183,822 80,567 89,661 96,298 89,806 89,053 94,600 92,720 92,024 147,403 156,161 167,752 157,255 173,259 191,634 195,803 195,777 79,451 79,360 83,553 74,996 87,631 100,611 104,305 105,833 199,084 105,777 93,307 281,884 189,164 92,720 201,213 188,518 187,644 188,333 188,031 187,637 187,148 186,858 186,045 186,102 185,358 185,496 183,822 91,839 91,592 91,238 91,327 90,715 91,262 91,755 91,428 90,472 90,649 90,920 92,024 201,133 198,559 192,996 193,151 192,122 191,795 194,560 192,836 199,399 192,502 199,454 201,913 198,716 196,274 191,051 196,132 193,068 193,642 193,294 193,305 196,281 196,202 197,222 203,605 105,631 105,545 102,693 106,592 103,672 104,553 104,980 104,154 106,027 107,443 r 106,669 111,631 93,085 90,729 88,358 89,540 89,396 89,089 88,314 89,151 90,254 88,759 90,553 91,974 280,357 279,236 279,571 279,358 278,352 278,410 278,613 277,473 276,574 276,007 276,416 275,846 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sates. Book value, end of period. End of period. 23,231 23,259 24,050 20,681 22,764 27,017 27,215 27,179 143,936 154,391 168,129 159,027 170,441 189,578 195,102 195,635 1.57 1.66 1.64 1.73 1.52 1.45 1.46 1.42 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. Souree: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In December, the producer price index for all finished goods was unchanged, seasonally adjusted. The index for finished consumer foods fell 0.4 percent while the index for other finished consumer goods rose 0.2 percent. The index for capital equipment was unchanged. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SC :ALEJ INDE,<, 1967 =100 (RATIO SCALE) 340 340 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED FINISHED GOODS 320 320 COr-JSUMER GOOD S pyr LUDING FOOD5 300 TOTAL FINISHED GOODS r—- . \ —^s~?l pC2-^"/^ .„ *~*"~ ' ^*aP ' _- -~ 300 V^: 280 280 ^^ '//\ 260 DNSUMER FO( •vrjc; 260 ,»*-' /& 240 "CAPITAL EQ JIPMENT 240 W 220 t i 200 r^A rf 200 \-t>\ i i 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 11 111 11 1 11 1978 180 220 1979 M 1 1 I t 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 !! 1980 111 1 11 i it ii 1 11 ii i M 1 1 1 1 1 I t 11 1983 1982 1981 M i l l I l| III 1 1 i \ \ 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 t 1 1 1 I I l l 180 1986 1985 1984 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE; DEPARTMEN F OF LABOR [1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Intermediate materials Finished goods Finished goods excluding consumer foods Period Total finished goods Consumer foods Total 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 " 1985: Dec 1986- Jan Feb May J u ly Aug T Sept Oct Dec 1 Durable Capital equipment Crude materials Total Foods and feeds ' Other Total Foodstuffs and feedstuffs Other 217.7 247.0 269.8 280.7 285.2 291.1 293.7 289.6 226.2 239.5 253.6 259.3 261.8 273.3 271.2 278.0 213.3 247.8 273.3 285.8 290.8 294.8 299.0 291.1 211.5 250.8 276.5 287.8 291.4 294.1 297.3 283.4 183.2 206.2 218.6 226.7 233.1 236.8 241.5 246.9 231.3 283.9 319.6 333.6 335.3 337.3 339.3 311.1 216.5 239.8 264.3 279.4 287.2 294.0 300.5 306.5 217.9 248.9 271.3 281.0 284.6 290.3 291.8 284.9 242.2 280.3 306.0 310.4 312.3 320.0 318.7 307.6 226.1 252.6 250.3 239.4 247.9 253.1 232.8 230.2 244.4 282.3 310.1 315.7 317.1 325.0 325.0 313.3 274.3 304.6 329.0 319.5 323.6 330.8 306.1 280.0 247.9 259.2 257.4 247.8 252.2 259.5 235.0 230.6 330.0 401.0 482.3 473.9 477.4 484.5 459.2 386.8 298.3 276.5 303.3 301.9 243.6 346.0 303.8 296.7 319.9 233.9 326.2 307.0 239.7 452.4 296.1 291.3 288.5 287.0 288.5 288.8 287.0 288.0 289.3 290.3 290.9 290.9 274.9 270.3 270.7 271.1 274.7 274.6 279.6 284.0 283.1 285.7 285.4 284.4 300.9 296.1 292.2 290.0 290.7 291.2 286.9 286.7 288.8 289.2 290.0 290.5 298.8 291.8 286.0 282.5 283.4 283.8 277.5 277.2 279.8 279.7 280.4 281.0 242.3 242.9 243.7 245.9 245.5 246.1 246.4 246.3 248.2 251.6 252.2 252.1 341.3 328.7 317.9 310.1 312.1 312.3 301.1 300.7 303.6 301.0 301.8 302.9 303.3 303.7 304.3 305.3 305.4 306.0 306.3 306.5 307.7 309.2 310.1 310.1 294.1 287.8 284.1 281.9 283.7 283.9 281.5 282.8 284.1 285.0 285.4 285.4 318.4 313.8 310.1 307.1 306.2 306.1 304.2 304.2 305.8 304.9 305.4 305.9 232.8 229.5 229.0 227.1 228.6 228.4 228.9 231.6 232.8 231.0 231.8 232.7 324.7 320.0 316.1 312.9 311.9 311.8 309.8 309.6 311.2 310.4 310.9 311.3 302.9 286.6 280.2 270.7 276.4 275.0 276.0 276.7 277.3 281.8 281.9 277.3 233.8 225.4 223.3 216.3 225.8 224.2 231.6 238.2 234.7 240.8 240.4 235.6 451.8 418.7 403.1 388.4 386.0 385.2 371.8 359.2 369.3 370.0 370.9 367.0 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 22 Nondurable Consumer goods Total Total finished consumer goods Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In December, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted (0.1 percent not seasonally adjusted). The index was 1.1 percent above its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX. 1967 =100 (RATIO SCALE) 340 340 320 320 300 300 280 280 ALL ITEMS 260 260 240 240 220 220 200 200 i M i ill m; 180 1979 1978 180 1980 1983 1982 1981 1985 1984 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967—100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Transportation Housing Shelter Period All items l Food Total ' Renters' Total 1982 = 100) Homeowners' costs (Dec. 1982=100) NSA Rel. imp.3 1979 1980 1981 1982 . 1983 1984 1985 1986 1985: Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 100.0 217.4 246.8 272.4 289.1 298.4 311.1 322.2 328.4 327.4 328.4 327.5 326.0 325.3 326.3 327.9 328.0 328.6 330.2 330.5 330.8 331.1 Maintenance and repairs Fuel and other utilities Apparupkeep Total J New cars Motor fuel 3.4 166.0 179.3 190.2 197.6 202.6 208.5 215.2 224.4 218.4 218.6 219.5 219.9 221.2 223.0 224.4 225.2 225.8 226.3 228.0 230.0 231.3 5.5 265.6 369.1 410.9 389.4 376.4 370.7 373.8 292.1 379.4 380.1 357.2 314.8 279.5 286.4 295.0 275.5 262.7 269.2 262.9 261.4 263.2 Medical care Ener- gy 2 All items less food, energy, and shelter NSA 18.5 234.5 254.6 274.6 285.7 291.7 302.9 309.8 319.7 315.2 315.9 313.8 314.1 315.0 316.4 316.7 319.5 322.5 323.9 325.0 326.7 327.2 37.9 227.6 263.3 293.5 314.7 323.1 336.5 349.9 360.2 356.2 357.1 356.8 357.5 358.5 358.2 360.1 360.2 361.1 361.9 361.8 361.6 362.6 22.3 239.7 281.7 314.7 337.0 344.8 361.7 382.0 402.9 391.9 393.3 394.8 397.3 400.7 401.0 401.8 403.6 404.8 406.7 408.3 409.2 410.1 7.3 103.0 108.6 115.4 121.9 118.5 118.8 119.2 119.8 121.1 121.2 121.7 122.5 122.7 123.2 123.6 124.1 124.4 14.4 102.5 107.3 113.1 119.4 116.2 116.6 117.0 118.0 118.9 119.1 119.1 119.6 119.9 120.6 121.1 121.2 121.5 0.5 256.4 285.7 314.4 334.1 346.3 359.2 368.9 373.8 373.7 379.1 379.6 367.5 367.6 367.1 366.6 369.2 376.4 376.2 379.0 377.1 380.0 8.1 239.3 278.6 319.2 350.8 370.3 387.3 393.6 384.7 396.5 397.2 392.4 388.4 385.7 382.3 388.9 383.4 383.6 381.8 377.1 374.3 374.2 5.0 166.6 178.4 186.9 191.8 196.5 200.2 206.0 207.8 208.3 207.7 206.6 206.3 206.9 206.5 205.8 206.2 207.7 209.4 209.9 210.3 210.3 21.4 212.0 249.7 280.0 291.5 298.4 311.7 319.9 307.5 323.9 325.5 320.9 311.8 304.0 304.9 307.4 303.6 300.8 302.0 302.3 303.8 304.6 6.5 239.7 265.9 294.5 328.7 357.3 379.5 403.1 433.5 415.7 417.5 420.4 424.5 427.2 429.8 432.8 435.0 437.4 440.1 442.6 444.4 447.7 11.3 275.9 361.1 410.0 416.1 419.3 423.6 426.5 370.3 430.3 430.8 414.3 387.5 365.2 366.2 374.8 359.6 352.7 355.0 347.3 344.9 346.1 48.0 191.5 208.3 228.1 245.6 258.4 271.2 281.6 291.2 286.2 287.5 288.0 288.6 289.1 289.4 290.4 291.3 292.1 292.7 293.9 294.9 295.8 NOTE.—Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS Change from preceding period I'eriod Change from :5 months earlier, amu al rate Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate Consumer goods Consumer goods Consumer goods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA 1979 12.8 11.8 7.1 3.7 .6 1.7 1.8 — 25 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986" . 17.5 14.2 8.5 4.2 -.8 .8 2.0 -6.9 7.4 7.5 1.4 2.1 2.3 3.5 .5 2.9 8.8 11.4 9.2 3.9 1.9 1.8 2.7 21 11.1 13.5 9.2 4.0 1.6 2.1 .9 -1.4 Change, month to month 1985: Dec 1986: 1.0 -1.6 -1.0 — .5 .5 .1 -.6 .3 .5 .3 2 0 May July Aug r Septr Oct Nov ' Dec 0.6 0.1 9.2 16.0 7.8 5.6 3.2 6.1 2.4 2.3 1.8 -.6 — 1.7 .1 .1 1.3 -.0 1.8 1.6 0.6 Jan Feb Mar -1.0 -2.3 -2.0 -1.2 .3 .1 22 j .9 -.0 .3 2 2 .1 2 .3 .0 .2 .1 .1 .4 .5 .3 0 2.3 -6.7 -12.5 -11.7 -3.8 .4 0 — .7 .7 4.7 4.1 2.2 6.2 -4.9 -8.1 -5.4 6.7 5.9 13.1 14.2 13.0 9.0 2.0 1.8 1.1 -10.5 -19.5 -20.1 -11.0 -3.0 -6.9 -8.5 -5.5 3.2 4.7 1.7 .8 .4 .7 2.7 2.3 2.3 1.3 1.4 22 3.8 4.8 3.2 1.2 — 1.4 — 2.2 -5.0 -5.3 -6.3 -6.1 -2.3 .6 2.3 1.7 1.5 3.0 1.0 3.3 2 .7 -1.4 3.4 10.4 9.4 11.1 7.9 7.3 .3 -3.8 -6.8 -10.1 -10.8 -11.6 -13.7 -9.8 -4.3 -2.0 -2.1 -2.0 1.7 1.6 3.1 1.7 1.3 1.5 2.0 1.9 2.2 2.6 3.1 2.7 1.3 -.2 -1.4 -2.0 -1.8 -1.6 -2.4 -1.8 -.9 -1.4 -1.9 -2.5 0 .9 -.4 Source: Department of Labor, Bui CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Housing Transportation Shelter Period All items 1 Food Total ' Total ' Renters' eosts Homeowners' costs Fuel and other utilities Appare! and upkeep Total ' New cars Motor fuel Medical care All items less food, energy, and shelter Energy2 Addendum: All iterns, percent change (annua rate) From previous quarter 3 From 3 earlier From 6 months earlier From year earlier NSA Change, December to December, NSA 13.3 12.4 8.9 39 3.8 4.0 3.8 1.1 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 10.2 10.2 4.3 31 2.6 3.8 2.7 3.8 15.2 13.7 10.2 36 3.5 4.2 4.3 1.8 17.4 15.1 9.9 24 4.7 5.2 6.0 4.6 5.1 5.9 6.3 5.0 4.5 5.1 5.9 4.6 16.0 13.6 14.0 9.7 1.8 4.2 1.9 -5.7 5.5 6.8 3.6 1.6 2.9 2.0 2.9 .9 18.2 14.7 11.0 1.7 3.9 3.1 2.6 -5.9 7.4 52.2 18.9 7.5 9.4 6.8 1.6 -6.5 3.4 -1.7 2.4 — 2.4 3.0 3.5 5.8 -30.6 10.1 10.0 12.5 11.0 6.4 6.1 6.7 7.7 37.4 18.1 11.9 1.3 — .5 2 1.8 -19.7 7.2 9.9 9.4 6.1 5.0 4.4 3.7 3.4 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.3 .2 .1 .4 -6.0 .2 -11.9 .6 -11.2 2.5 .8 3.0 .6 .4 -6.6 .3 -4.6 2.5 .2 .8 -2.3 -.6 .9 .7 .6 .4 .7 1.0 .6 .6 .7 .0 .6 .6 .6 .4 .7 .1 -3.8 -6.5 -5.8 .3 2.3 -4.1 -1.9 .7 -2.2 — .7 .3 11.3 13.5 10.4 6.1 3.2 4.3 3.6 1.9 Change, month to month 1985: Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Ang Sept Oct Nov Dec 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 .3 2 — .7 .1 .3 .4 .1 .9 .9 .4 .3 .5 .2 .3 -.1 9 .3 -.1 .5 .0 2 2 -.0 -.1 .3 .4 .4 .6 .9 .1 .3 .3 .0 .3 .3 .9 .8 2 0 .4 .3 .6 .4 .1 2 .2 j2 -1.0 — .7 -.9 1.7 -1.4 .1 — .5 -1.2 -.7 -.0 A -.4 -.3 2 .5 .0 .2 .3 2 .3 .2 0 .4 .3 .5 .4 o '.2 1.1 .1 .4 .7 2 .4 .3 .4 .2 -0.0 0.4 -.3 -.5 -.1 .3 —. 2 -.3 9 .7 .8 .2 9 0 .5 — 1.4 -2.8 — 2.5 .3 .8 -1.2 -.9 .4 .1 .5 .3 0.3 Source: Department of Labor, Bui 24 .2 2 .2 .1 .3 .3 .3 2 .4 .3 .3 4.3 1.5 -1.7 of Labor Statistics. 2.6 2.8 5.3 3.8 3.8 5.1 1.2 -1.9 -4.3 -2.1 1.5 2.7 2.7 2.2 2.7 3.1 2.7 4.1 2.9 1.6 .3 -.4 -.2 -.8 .3 1.8 2.7 2.9 2.5 3.9 3.2 2.3 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.1 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers in January fell 1.7 percent from their December level. Prices paid by farmers in January rose 0.6 percent from their October level. INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1977 =100 (RATIO SCALE) 180 180 PRICES PAID 160 160 140 140 120 120 PRICES RECEIVED " 100 100 80 80 inn! mil 60 RATIO-!' 140 linn iniiliiiii I II I I I I II I II I I I l l l l l l l l l l 60 RATION 60 60 1979 J/RATiO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAIDSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1977 = 100] Prices paid by farmers Prices received by farmers Period 1979 1980 1981 1982r 1983r 1984r 1985r 1986 1986- Jan r Feb r Mar r Mav r July r Aug r Sept/ Oct r Nov r Dec 1987- Jan All farm products Livestock and products Crops 132 134 139 133 135 142 128 123 124 122 122 121 123 122 125 125 122 121 124 121 119 116 125 134 121 128 138 120 106 113 110 111 114 115 110 106 101 97 97 103 99 99 147 144 143 145 141 146 136 138 135 133 132 127 131 133 143 149 146 145 145 141 139 All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates l Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates 123 138 151 159 161 165 163 159 161 161 (3) 159 (3) (3) 159 (3) (3) 158 (3) (3) 159 125 139 151 159 159 162 157 151 153 153 (3) 151 (3) (3) 151 (3) (3) 149 (3) (3) 149 Production items 125 138 148 153 152 155 151 146 149 148 (3) 145 (3) (3) 144 (3) (3) 142 (3) (3) 143 Ratio 2 107 97 92 84 84 86 79 77 77 76 76 76 77 77 79 79 77 77 78 77 75 Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES In December, growth accelerated in Ml and the broader aggregates. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,600 3,600 3,200 3,200 2,300 -M3- 2,800 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 _M2 1,600 1,600 1,200 1,200 800 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 1978 1982 1980 1984 • AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1985 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Ml 1979' 19801981' 19821983' 19841985' Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec.. . Dec 1986' Jan Feb Mar Mav Julv Sept T Oct ' Nov r Dec " . . MS Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCDs) Period M2 Ml plus overnight RPs and Eurodollars, MMMF balances (general purpose and broker/dealer), MMDAs, and savings and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, term RPs, term Eurodollars, and institution-only MMMF balances 388.7 414.2 441.1 479.9 527.1 558.5 626.6 730.4 627.2 631.0 638.4 646.1 658.7 666.8 676.0 687.6 693.2 701.2 713.5 730.4 1,497.5 1,630.3 1,792.8 1,952.6 2,186.0 2,373.8 2,566.5 2,804.5 2,569.9 2,577.7 2,592.4 2,622.2 2,649.7 2,670.8 2,699.2 2,724.3 2,740.8 2,765.2 2,781.4 2,804.5 1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local govei ments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months ™ cr at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. 26 1,803.2 1,987.4 2,233.6 2,443.5 2,697.3 2,986.5 3,201.2 3,488.1 3,224.5 3,241.5 '3,262.6 3,293.7 3,315.4 3,339.0 3,375.1 3,400.7 3,425.6 3,444.5 3,461.4 3,488.1 L M3 plus other liquid assets Debt Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors (monthly average) 1 2,114.8 2,323.3 2,593.7 2,850.1 3,163.5 3,532.3 3,839.5 3,556.1 3,898.9 4,279.2 4,661.7 5,210.1 5,949.8 6,778.6 3,862.2 3,881.2 '3,895.1 r 3,918.6 r 3,951.0 ' 3,973.5 r 4,003.5 T 4,03 1.1 4,059.4 4,082.3 4,112.2 6,878.5 6,923.3 6,968.5 ,029.1 ' ,101.3 ' ,172.2 ' ,238.1 r ,314.8 ,387.2 7,444.4 7,519.3 Percent change from year or 6 months earlier 2 Ml 7.1 6.6 6.5 8.8 9.8 6.0 12.2 16.6 10.7 8.9 9.0 10.7 12.8 13.2 16.2 18.7 17.9 17.8 17.3 20.0 NOTE.—See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. M2 7.8 8.9 10.0 8.9 12.0 8.6 8.1 9.3 6.0 5.0 5.0 6.7 7.9 8.3 10.3 11.7 11.8 11.2 10.2 10.3 M3 9.5 10.2 12.4 9.4 10.4 10.7 7.2 9.0 7.3 7.2 7.2 r 8.2 8.6 8.8 9.6 10.1 10.2 9.4 9.0 9.1 Debt 12.1 9.6 9.8 8.9 11.8 14.2 13.9 16.0 15.2 14.7 14.6 14.0 r !2.0 10.7 r !1.6 12.4 12.2 12.1 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, exeept as noted hv XSA] Other Demand deposits Currencv Period checkable deposits (OCDs) Overnight repurchase agreements (RPs), net, plus overnight Eurodollars NSA 1979: Dec 1980: Dec 1981: Dec 1982: Dec 1983: Dec 1984: Dec 1985: Dec 1986: Dec ".. 1986: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aue & Sept r Oct r Nov r Dec p 106.4 116.7 124.1 134.3 148.3 158.5 170.6 183.5 261.1 265.3 234.6 237.9 242.7 248.4 271.5 171.9 172.9 173.9 174.4 175.8 176.7 177.5 179.0 179.7 181.2 182.2 183.5 1 Money market mutual fund balances General purpose and broker/ dealer NSA Institution only NSA 33.4 61.6 Money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) 0.0 .0 .0 185.2 138.2 167.5 176.5 207.2 43.2 379.2 417.0 512.0 570.6 177.7 181.0 186.2 191.4 193.2 197.3 199.7 200.5 202.2 206.9 207.0 207.2 67.3 67.7 70.2 74.1 76.1 75.0 77.5 80.8 84.4 84.5 84.4 84.1 515.7 516.3 520.5 525.2 530.8 540.4 546.1 553.1 558.3 563.8 568.1 570.6 21.2 28.3 35.9 150.6 307.9 103.4 131.3 146.3 178.6 232.7 38.8 53.8 56.3 70.3 75.7 268.9 269.2 273.2 275.7 281.6 284.9 288.3 291.8 292.2 293.2 298.4 307.9 180.5 183.1 185.3 189.9 195.1 199.0 203.8 210.4 214.8 220.4 226.4 232.7 68.9 68.5 67.6 68.6 69.2 66.5 71.9 74.6 72.7 77.2 75.8 75.7 denomination time deposits ' Large denomination time deposits 1 NSA 9.5 15.2 38.0 51.1 43.2 62.7 64.6 84.1 17.4 28.0 78.0 Small 1 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. Term repurchase agreements (RPs) Term Eurodollars (net) NSA Savings deposits NSA 222.1 259.0 301.8 327.8 329.9 413.9 436.5 444.2 29.5 34.0 36.0 34.5 51.8 62.2 66.0 81.1 44.7 289.7 303.6 371.4 635.3 730.2 825.1 852.8 785.2 887.5 880.3 852.4 304.0 304.9 306.9 311.4 318.5 325.0 331.2 337.6 344.4 353.8 363.3 371.4 885.9 891.0 894.7 895.9 891.2 885.6 883.7 877.2 871.3 861.8 854.9 852.4 447.9 451.3 450.5 452.1 446.4 445.1 445.9 448.0 447.1 442.9 442.8 444.2 68.8 70.6 71.6 71.5 74.2 75.3 75.0 75.5 78.0 77.8 81.8 81.1 76.0 79.2 82.7 81.5 79.8 80.1 78.6 78.4 81.8 79.0 80.2 83.3 423.9 401.4 344.8 357.9 306.6 50.3 67.5 81.7 91.5 83.1 76.7 83.3 Shortterm Treasury securities Bankers' acceptances Commercial paper 133.4 149.6 184.4 214.9 266.0 308.4 27.2 32.1 39.9 44.3 44.5 43.6 41.1 97.0 98.1 102.8 109.9 135.6 161.8 209.5 305.6 307.8 300.3 r 299.1 r 306.2 r 300.2 r 292.5 r 288.6 289.4 287.6 298.7 41.6 42.4 41.7 41.0 40.1 40.3 39.4 r 37.3 36.7 38.1 37.8 210.6 209.2 209.5 203.0 206.7 210.6 212.3 219.3 221.1 224.3 224.3 Savings bonds 79.6 72.3 67.8 68.0 71.2 74.3 79.5 79.9 80.5 81.1 81.8 82.6 83.4 84.3 85.3 86.4 87.8 89.9 107.8 r r r Travelers checks are a component of money stock but are not shown hei Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstern. NOTE.—See note p. 26. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Net change in installment credit outstanding 1 Installment credit outstanding (end of period) Period Total 1977: 19781979: 1980198119821983198419851985- Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec.... Dec Dec ... Dec Dec Nov Dec 1986' Jan Feb Mar.... May June... July Sept ... Oct r Nov p 221,475 261,976 296,483 297,667 314,321 327,173 376,239 453,580 535,098 528,621 535,098 542,753 547,852 550,939 555,810 562,267 r 567,653 573,216 r 576,609 584,334 591,542 595,560 Automobile Revolving Mobile home Other 80,948 98,739 112,475 112,255 120,020 125,369 145,908 173,122 206,482 36,689 45,202 53,357 54,894 60,750 66,007 78,369 98,514 118,296 117,050 118,296 119,682 120,724 122,131 123,442 124,545 r 124,720 125,577 125,915 126,012 126,514 128,102 16,362 16,921 18,207 19,119 20,382 20,998 22,194 24,184 25,461 25,315 25,461 25,371 25,573 25,584 25,513 r 25,560 r 25,479 25,398 25,215 24,958 24,994 25,029 87,476 101,114 112,444 111,399 113,169 114,799 129,768 157,760 184,859 182,490 184,859 187,039 188,212 188,863 191,041 r !93,197 194,847 196,007 196,665 197,084 199,485 201,036 203,766 206,482 210,661 213,342 214,361 215,814 218,965 222,606 r 226,234 r 228,814 r 236,280 240,548 241,392 1 For year-end data, change from preceding vear-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month. Total 33,693 40,501 34,507 1,184 16,654 12,852 49,066 77,341 81,518 5,643 6,477 7,655 5,099 3,087 4,871 6,457 5,386 5,564 3,393 7,724 7,208 4,018 Automobile 14,127 17,791 13,736 -220 7,765 5,349 20,539 27,214 33,360 1,772 2,716 4,179 2,682 1,019 1,452 3,151 3,642 3,628 2,579 7,466 4,268 844 Revolving 20,094 8,513 8,155 1,537 5,856 5,257 12,362 20,145 19,782 1,832 1,246 1,386 1,042 1,407 1,311 1,103 175 857 338 97 502 1,588 Mobile home 624 559 1,286 912 1,263 616 1,196 1,990 1,277 -5 146 -90 203 11 — 71 48 -81 -81 -183 -257 37 35 Other -1,152 13,638 11,330 -1,045 1,770 1,630 14,969 27,992 27,099 2,044 2,369 2,180 1,173 651 2,178 2,155 1,650 1,160 659 419 2,401 1,551 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstem. 27 BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES, AND RESERVES Commercial and industrial loans rose 3.2 percent in December. BILLION S OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 2,200 2,000 ' 1,800 1,600 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) ,- 2,200 ALL COMMERCIAL BANK S 1,400 1,200 1,000 ^^—I _,. _ - - 1 —-| 2,000 1,800 1,600 *""" " — 1,400 1,200 ^^-—' r^---] — 800 600 -^^ r^ __ -—- -] . . 1,000 800 JANS AND LEA — — 400 600 400 ,— U.S. GC VERNMENT SE CURITIES \ 200 \ r^. 160 —" -; ^— •=-—' —•*•--- =, . • -- —x' ' 200 -• '" , \ '' — 160 1 — C JTHER SECURIT ES 120 120 1978 iiiniiiiii miilmn 1980 i i m l i n i i [ 1 1 1 1 1 i1 1 1 1 80 1981 1979 illlillllil 1982 nmlmii umlinii I l l l l l l l l l l 1984 1983 1985 • SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEW illllllllll 1986 80 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] All commercial banks Depository institutions 3 1 Reserves adjusted for changes in reserve requirements Loans and leases Period Total loans and securities 2 Total 1979: 1980: 1981: 198219831984: 19851986: 1986- Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec .. Dec Dec Dec p Jan Feb Mar Apr Mav July Aug Sept r Oct ''. Nov" Dec p 1,136.2 1,240.5 1,308.2 1,401.1 1,553.5 1,722.6 1,900.4 2,079.7 1,930.0 1,935.5 1,944.6 1,947.9 1,957.5 1,963.7 1,985.0 2,007.7 2,029.6 2,034.0 2,049.0 2,079.7 z 849.9 915.4 968.4 1,033.9 1,123.7 1,319.7 1,449.7 1,576.9 1,469.3 1,473.7 1,491.8 1,495.8 1,501.5 1,505.3 1,513.4 1,524.5 1,534.7 1,537.7 1,549.5 1,576.9 Commercial and industrial loans 291.3 327.4 355.9 392.5 414.0 472.9 499.5 536.7 502.1 502.4 506.1 507.8 506.7 508.7 508.7 510.4 512.1 514.1 520.3 536.7 U.S. Government securities securities Total 144.4 170.6 179.2 201.9 259.7 260.9 273.1 309.4 268.2 273.6 269.5 270.0 274.1 274.8 285.4 290.9 294.3 299.6 304.8 309.4 -related institutions. Data beginning January 1984 are not strict!; 28 Other Borrowings (millions of dollars, unadjusted) 142.0 154.5 160.6 165.3 170.1 142.1 177.6 193.4 192.5 188.1 183.3 182.1 181.9 183.6 186.1 192.3 200.7 196.7 194.8 193.4 29.15 30.99 32.19 34.41 36.16 39.51 45.61 55.64 45.88 46.37 46.87 47.28 48.58 49.45 50.49 51.32 51.81 52.40 r 53.82 55.64 Nonborrowed 27.67 29.30 31.55 33.78 35.38 36.32 44.29 54.81 45.11 45.49 46.10 46.38 47.70 48.64 49.75 50.45 50.80 51.56 r 53.07 54.81 Required 28.70 30.48 31.87 33.91 35.59 38.66 44.55 54.27 44.77 45.27 45.97 46.47 47.74 48.51 49.58 50.58 51.08 51.66 r 52.85 54.27 Total 1 ,473 1,690 636 634 774 3,186 1,318 827 770 884 761 893 876 803 741 872 1,008 841 752 827 Seasonal 81 116 54 33 96 113 56 38 36 56 68 73 94 108 116 144 137 99 70 38 SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External Period Credit market funds Total Internal ' Total Total Securities and mortgages Loans and short-term paper Total Other 2 Capital expenditures 3 Increase in financial assets Discrepancy (sources less uses) ' 328.5 r 352.6 347.6 382.5 327.6 431.3 503.4 483.1 182.3 197.6 200.1 239.5 242.3 285.7 326.3 352.5 146.3 155.1 147.5 143.0 85.3 145.6 177.1 130.6 85.0 87.8 94.3 93.7 80.6 87.6 116.4 82.1 51.8 66.9 41.2 70.9 36.6 30.3 126.5 66.8 61.2 67.3 53.2 49.3 4.7 r 58.0 60.7 r 48.5 r 21.0 53.1 22.8 44.0 57.3 r -10.0 15.3 309.4 362.8 343.2 r 349.2 292.0 399.1 469.1 438.5 216.9 238.3 244.1 286.3 256.3 274.8 371.2 353.1 92.4 124.5 99.1 62.8 35.7 124.3 97.9 85.4 19.2 -10.1 4.4 33.3 35.6 32.2 34.3 44.6 432.2 421.9 505.0 573.2 1978 1979 1980 1981 . 1982 1983 1984 1985 r 339.4 350.3 365.2 355.1 92.8 71.6 139.8 218.1 71.7 58.2 53.0 145.6 -10.1 29.4 17.0 24.8 81.8 28.8 36.0 120.8 21.1 13.4 86.8 72.5 r 407.8 406.6 417.3 522.3 340.1 349.8 349.0 373.5 67.8 56.8 68.3 148.8 24.3 15.3 87.7 50.9 413.5 456.0 389.6 361.7 355.6 359.6 51,8 100.3 30.0 87.5 67.1 15.4 393.0 430.9 344.7 380.2 354.4 336.3 12.8 76.4 8.4 20.6 25.1 45.0 1985: I II HI IV 1986: I n p m T r 33.3 r 51.8 50.1 17.4 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained abroad. *• Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment m the L.S. 35.7 17.0 -2.0 r r r -35.7 33.3 14.6 r 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstem. leral rights from U.S. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars, except as noted] Current liabilities Current assets End of period Total QFR-FRB series: 2 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1983: IV 1984- I II m IV 1985- I n m IV 1986- I p 1,043.7 1,214.8 1,328.3 1,419.6 1,437.1 1,575.9 1,703.0 1,784.6 1,575.9 1,619.5 1,650.0 1,685.9 1,703.0 1,722.7 1,734.6 1,763.0 1,784.6 1,795.7 Cash 105.5 118.0 127.0 135.6 147.8 171.8 173.6 189.2 171.8 167.6 164.9 161.3 173.6 167.5 167.1 176.3 189.2 195.3 U.S. Government securities 17.2 16.7 18.7 17.7 23.0 31.0 36.2 33.0 31.0 35.4 37.2 33.0 36.2 35.7 35.4 32.6 33.0 31.0 Notes and accounts receivable 388.0 459.0 507.5 532.5 517.4 583.0 633.1 671.5 583.0 606.4 622.6 639.1 633.1 650.3 654.1 661.0 671.5 663.4 Inventories 431.8 505.1 543.0 584.0 579.0 603.4 656.9 666.0 603.4 622.2 632.5 659.3 656.9 665.7 666.7 675.0 666.0 679.6 Other current assets 101.1 116.0 132.1 149.7 169.8 186.7 203.2 224.9 186.7 187.9 192.9 193.2 203.2 203.5 211.2 218.2 224.9 226.3 Total 669.5 807.3 890.6 971.3 986.0 1,059.6 1,163.6 1,233.6 1,059.6 1,093.1 1,126.3 1,155.0 1,163.6 1,174.1 1,182.9 1,211.9 1,233.6 1,222.3 Notes and accounts payable 383.0 460.8 514.4 547.1 550.7 595.7 647.8 682.7 595.7 601.9 623.4 642.2 647.8 636.9 651.7 670.4 682.7 668.4 Other current liabilities 286.5 346.5 376.2 424.1 435.3 463.9 515.8 550.9 463.9 491.2 502.9 512.9 515.8 537.1 531.2 541.5 550.9 553.9 Net working capital 374.3 407.5 437.8 448.3 451.1 516.3 539.5 551.0 516.3 526.5 523.7 530.8 539.5 548.6 551.7 551.1 551.0 573.4 Current ratio 1 1.559 1.505 1.492 1.462 1.458 1.487 1.464 1.447 1.487 1.482 1.465 1.460 1.464 1.467 1.466 1.455 1.447 1.469 the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census from the Federal Trade Commission. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census), and Federal Trade Commission. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates fell in January. PERCENT PER ANNUM 16 T PERCENT PER ANNUM 16 1985 1986 1987 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC / [Percent per annum] U.S. Treasury security yields Period 3-month hills (new issues) l Constant maturities 2 3-year 10-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standards & Poor's) Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) 4 Prime commercial paper, 6 months * Discount rate (N.Y. F.E. Bank) 5 Prime rate charged 5bv banks Ne\v-home mortgage yields (FHLBB) 6 8.63 9.58 7.48 5.98 14.44 12.92 10.45 11.89 9.64 7.06 13.91 13.00 11.10 12.44 10.62 7.68 11.23 11.57 9.47 10.15 C 9.18 7.38 14.17 13.79 12.04 12.71 11.37 9.02 14.76 11.89 8.89 10.16 8.01 6.39 13.41 11.02 8.50 8.80 7.69 6.33 18.87 14.86 10.79 12.04 9.93 8.33 14.70 15.14 12.57 12.38 11.55 10.17 7.04 7.03 6.59 6.06 6.12 6.21 5.84 5.57 5.19 5.18 5.35 5.49 8.41 8.10 7.30 6.86 7.27 7.41 6.86 6.49 6.62 6.56 6.46 6.43 9.19 8.70 7.78 7.30 7.71 7.80 7.30 7.17 7.45 7.43 7.25 7.11 8.06 7.44 7.07 7.32 7.67 7.98 7.62 7.31 7.14 7.12 6.86 6.93 10.05 9.67 9.00 8.79 9.09 9.13 8.88 8.72 8.89 8.86 8.68 8.49 7.62 7.54 7.08 6.47 6.53 6.63 6.24 5.83 5.61 5.61 5.69 5.88 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.00 7.00-6.50 6.50-6.50 6.50-6.50 6.50-6.00 6.00-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 9.50- 9.50 9.50- 9.50 9.50- 9.00 9.00- 8.50 8.50- 8.50 8.50- 8.50 8.50- 8.00 8.00- 7.50 7.50- 7.50 7.50- 7.50 7.50- 7.50 7.50- 7.50 10.89 10.68 10.50 10.27 10.22 10.15 10.30 10.26 10.17 10.02 r 9.91 9.69 5.45 6.41 7.08 6.63 8.36 5.76 5.50-5.50 7.50- 7.50 9.55 5.53 5.38 5.23 5.44 5.58 6.38 6.39 6.37 6.46 7.05 7.07 7.03 7.15 6.71 6.68 6.53 6.61 8.40 8.33 8.31 8.37 5.77 5.73 5.71 5.78 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50-5.50 5.50- 7.50- 7.50 7.50- 7.50 7.50- 7.50 7.50- 7.50 7.50- 14.029 10.686 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1986- Jan Feb Mar Apr May July Sept Oct Nov.. Dec 1987- Jan Week ended: 1987: Jan 10 17 24 31 Feb 7 1 Bank-discount basis, Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant i laturities bv the Treasurv Depart men t. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures, 4 Series'excludes public utility issues for January 17, 1984 through October 11, 1084 due to lack of appropriate issues. 2 30 5 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices rose in January. INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 160 160 140 140 120 120 COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX (NYSE) -V 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 Illlll 1979 1980 1981 1982 1984 1983 1985 1986 PERCENT 1987 PERCENT 20 20 15 - EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) 10 10 J 1979 1980 1981 1982 I 1 1984 1983 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Common stock prices 1 New York Stock Exchange indexes (E 3) Common stock5 yields (percent) z Period Composite Industrial Transportation Finance Utility Dow-Jones industrial average 3 Standard & Poor's composite index (194143=10) 4 Dividendprice ratio 74.02 68.93 92.63 92,46 108.09 136.00 85.44 78.18 107.45 108.01 123.79 155.85 72.61 60.41 89.36 85.63 104.11 119.87 38.91 39.75 47.00 46.44 56.75 71.36 73.52 71.99 95.34 89.28 114.21 147.20 932.92 884.36 1,190.34 1,178.48 1,328.23 1,792.76 128.05 119.71 160.41 160.46 186.84 236.34 5.20 5.81 4.40 4.64 4.25 3.49 Sept Oct Nov Dee 120.16 126.43 133.97 137.27 137.37 140.82 138.32 140.91 137.06 136.74 140.84 142.12 137.13 144.03 152.75 157.30 158.59 163.15 158.06 160.10 156.52 156.56 162.10 163.85 115.72 124.18 128.66 126.17 122.21 120.65 112.03 111.24 114.06 120.04 122.27 121.26 62.46 65.18 68.06 69.46 68.65 70.69 74.20 77.84 74.56 73.38 75.77 76.07 132.36 142.13 153.94 155.07 151.28 151.73 150.23 152.90 145.56 143.89 142.97 144.29 1,534.86 1,652.73 1,757.35 1,807.05 1,801.80 1,867.70 1,809.92 1,843.45 1,813.47 1,817.04 1,883.65 1,924.07 208.19 219.37 232.33 237.97 238.46 245.30 240.18 245.00 238.27 237.36 245.09 248.61 3.90 3.72 3.50 3.43 3.42 3.36 3.43 3.36 3.43 3.49 3.40 3.38 1987* Tan 151.17 175.60 126.61 78.54 153.32 2,065.13 264.51 3.17 Week ended: 1987: Jan 3 10 17 24 31 139.65 146.31 150.67 154.04 155.70 161.36 168.94 174.71 179.40 181.91 118.14 123.47 126.60 128.69 129.21 74.39 77.19 78.30 79.45 79.89 141.04 150.80 154.43 155.25 154.93 1,911.00 1,989.65 2,040.95 2,109.65 2,147.83 244.17 255.26 262.93 270.05 273.42 Earningsprice ratio 3.47 3.28 3.20 3.14 3.07 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1986' Jan Feb Mar Apr June July 11.96 11.60 8.03 10.02 8.12 6.08 r 5.87 'rice ratios based on prices at end of quarter. NOTE.—All data relate to stoeks listed on the New- York Stock Exchange (NYSE). • York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corprices. Earnings- 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first 3 months of fiscal 1987, there was a deficit of $64.3 billion compared with a deficit of $75.1 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,100 ,000 900 500 400 400 SURPLUS OF DEFICIT (-)L/ _ -100 -100 -200 -200 1979 1981 1980 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 FISCAL YEARS !/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Fiscal year or period Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Gross Federal debt (end of period) Off-budget On-budget Total Surplus or deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) Total Held by the public 1979 279.1 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 332.3 371.8 96.0 409.2 458.7 503.5 -53.2 -73.7 -14.7 -53.6 -59.2 -40.2 216.6 231.7 63.2 278.7 314.2 365.3 271.9 302.2 76.6 328.5 369.1 403.5 -55.3 -70.5 -13.3 — 49.7 -54.9 -38.2 62.5 66.4 18.0 76.8 85.4 98.0 60.4 69.6 19.4 80.7 89.7 100.0 2.0 -3.2 -1.4 -3.9 -4.3 -2.0 544.1 631.9 646.4 709.1 780.4 833.8 396.9 480.3 498.3 551.8 610.9 644.6 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 851.8 -73.8 -78.9 -127.9 -207.8 -185.3 403.9 469.1 474.3 453.2 500.4 476.6 543.0 594.3 661.2 686.0 -72.7 -73.9 -120.0 -208.0 -185.6 113.2 130.2 143.5 147.3 166.1 114.3 135.2 151.4 147.1 165.8 — 1.1 -5.0 -7.9 .2 .3 914.3 1,003.9 1,147.0 1,381.9 1,576.7 715.1 794.4 929.4 1,141.8 1,312.6 1985 1986 1987 i 1988 1 734.1 769.1 842.4 916.6 946.3 989.8 1,015.6 1,024.3 — 212.3 -220.7 -173.2 -107.8 547.9 568.9 628.4 674.5 769.5 806.3 821.1 821.9 -221.6 -237.5 -192.7 — 147.4 186.2 200.2 214.0 242.1 176.8 183.5 194.5 202.4 9.4 16.7 19.5 39.7 1,827.2 2,132.9 2,372.4 2,585.5 1,509.9 1,746.1 1,908.4 2,015.1 Cumulative total, first 3 months: Fiscal year 1986 Fiscal year 1987 177.2 190.0 252.4 254.4 -75.1 -64.3 134.3 142.7 210.5 208.0 -76.2 -65.3 42.9 47.3 41.9 46.3 1.1 1.0 1,950.3 2,218.9 1,600.4 1,814.7 1975 1976 . 1977 1978 1 Estimates from Budget of Ikr United States Gorernmeat, Fiscal Year 1988, January 1887. 32 Sources: Department o the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 3 months of fiscal 1987, receipts were $12.8 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $2.0 billion higher. BILLIC NS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DO LLARS 400 RECEIPTS!/ 300 — 400 •— "~ _ —• —' 300 7 " 200 SOCIAL INSURANCE 200 TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS ""CORPORATION INCOME TAXES 100 100 / "I 0 700 INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES , ^^r=^r. ~*^ OTHER RECEIPTS ' j ! 1 _. 1 1 0 OUTLAYS^ . 700 NONDEFENSE \ 600 '" 600 500 500 400 400 NATIONAL DEFENSE 300 300 200 200 100 100 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1985 1984 1987 1986 1988 FISCAL YEARS _L/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] On-budget and off-budget outlays On-budget and off-budget receipts Social insurance taxes National defense Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes 1979 298.1 355.6 399.6 463.3 131.6 157.6 181.0 217.8 41.4 54.9 60.0 65.7 90.8 106.5 121.0 138.9 34.3 36.6 37.7 40.8 371.8 409.2 458.7 503.5 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 517.1 599.3 617.8 600 6 666.5 244.1 157.8 182.7 201.5 298.4 64.6 61.1 49.2 37.0 56.9 50.6 69.5 69.3 65.6 71.8 1985 1986 1987 ' 1988 ' 734.1 769.1 842.4 916.6 334.5 349.0 364.0 392.8 61.3 63.1 104.8 117.2 265.2 283.9 333.2 177.2 190.0 84.2 88.8 14.9 18.0 59.4 65.2 Fiscal year Total 1976 1977 1978 Cumulative total, first 3 months: Fiscal year 1986 .. . 285.9 297.7 288 9 Department of Defense, military International affairs 89.6 97.2 104.5 116.3 88.1 95.3 102.3 113.7 6.4 6.4 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 851.8 134.0 157.5 185.3 209.9 227.4 73.0 946.3 989.8 73.) 72.2 1,015.6 73.4 1,024.3 Other Total Total and contributions 209.0 239.4 301.5 18.8 18.0 252.4 254.4 Health Medicare Income security Social security Net interest Other 7.5 7.5 15.7 17.3 18.5 20.5 15.8 19.3 22.8 26.5 60.8 61.0 61.5 66.4 73.9 85.1 93.9 104.1 26.7 29.9 35.4 42.6 82.8 93.0 114.7 119.8 131.0 153.8 180.7 204.4 220.8 12.7 13.1 12.3 11.8 15.9 23.2 26.9 27.4 28.6 30.4 32.1 39.1 46.6 52.6 57.5 86.5 99.7 107.7 122.6 112.7 118.5 139.6 156.0 170.7 178.2 52.5 68.7 85.0 89.8 111.1 131.4 133.5 1 25.4 122.3 118.6 252.7 273.4 282.2 297.6 245.4 265.6 274.2 289.3 16.2 14.2 14.6 15.2 33.5 35.9 39.7 38.9 65.8 70.2 71.6 73.0 128.2 119.8 124.9 124.8 188.6 198.8 129.4 136.0 137.5 139.0 131.8 141.7 137.2 116.5 67.8 68.5 65.9 66.2 4.5 4.4 8.7 9.4 17.4 19.2 30.4 31.1 207.9 219.4 47.3 50.1 34.8 34.3 41.5 37.4 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the third quarter of 1986, Federal receipts rose $19.6 billion (annual rate) and expenditures fell $15.2 billion, yielding a deficit of $197.4 billion. In the fourth quarter, according to preliminary estimates, expenditures rose $12.5 billion; receipts data are incomplete. BILLIO •JS OF DOLLARS 1,200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES — 1,000 1,000 _ EXPENDITURES -"' V- 800 — 800 ' \ " ^ ^,,- ,..-.., ; - — ^ \\ ' " RECEIPTS S" 600 s-~-^ 600 __--^lr°*^~~~~~~ '^^^ — 400 400 — — 200 200 — — ' —• — 0 200 1 1 I 1978 ! 1 1 JS OR DEFICIT K ~~-^_~ 1 1 1 1 1980 1979 1 1 1981 i i i 0 H — -_. — i I I 1983 1982 1 1 I 1984 -200 1 1 1 1985 1 1 1 1986 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE; DEPARTMEN T OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Government receipts Period Total Fiscal year: 1984 1985. . 1986 198V1 Calendar year: 1983 1984 1985 1986 p 1982- IV 1983: IV 1984- IV 1985- I II Ill IV 1986- I II Ill IV " Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Federal Government expenditures Contributions for social Lnsurance Purchases of goods and services Total Transfer payments Grantsin-aid to State and local governments Less: Wage accruals less disbursements 712.6 774.6 814.7 874.6 302.4 340.2 355.8 368.7 76.3 71.7 83.0 108.9 54.9 56.5 52.2 53.8 279.0 306.2 323.7 343.2 873.9 962.1 1,025.4 1,060.5 297.8 341.1 367.1 384.8 352.3 374.2 394.2 409.5 90.7 97.7 107.4 104.6 109.7 128.3 136.8 138.5 23.5 20.9 19.9 25.1 659.9 726.5 786.8 826.2 294.5 309.3 345.6 361.8 303.0 291.9 325.5 360.7 316.6 349.6 355.6 61.3 75.9 73.6 51.6 55.7 56.1 52.3 47.6 53.6 55.9 55.1 59.3 53.9 56.0 52.7 50.7 53.4 52.5 252.5 285.5 311.5 328.9 236.1 259.8 292.6 306.9 310.0 312.2 317.0 325.8 327.2 329.6 333.1 835.9 896.5 984.9 1,030.2 835.7 844.7 934.0 955.4 970.6 990.1 1,023.4 1,001.5 1,045.7 1,030.5 1,043.0 283.5 311.3 354.1 367.2 293.2 276.1 329.1 333.7 340.9 360.9 380.9 355.7 367.6 369.3 376.3 348.6 355.0 380.3 397.5 347.4 352.5 362.1 374.2 377.2 384.1 385.9 389.3 396.7 403.0 401.1 86.2 93.6 99.0 104.0 84.5 86.0 96.9 95.7 98.3 100.2 101.6 103.5 106.9 108.0 97.7 94.3 115.6 130.5 135.8 87.2 22.9 21.3 20.7 25.6 23.4 29.1 21.5 24.4 22.3 15.1 21.1 .6 .1 -1.0 .0 .0 18.0 36.5 15.4 32.5 .0 .0 .0 .0 633.1 675.5 743.9 793.3 755.8 792.6 805.8 806.6 813.5 833.1 350.3 355.5 365.8 375 6 83.2 46.4 70.2 69.9 70.5 69.9 76.8 77.2 77.8 80.1 84.3 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bum Budget. 34 Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises 101.0 124.9 127.6 130.9 129.8 133.9 135.0 138.1 134.7 135.4 0.1 -.1 .0 2.0 £ .2 _^2 .0 .0 .0 Surplus or deficit (-), national income and product accounts -161.3 -187.5 -210.7 -185.9 -176.0 -170.0 -198.0 - 204.0 -202.6 -169.2 -190.1 -162.2 -214.8 -197.5 — 217.6 -195.0 — 232.2 -197.4 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Industrial production (1977=100: seasonally adjusted) Period United States Canada Japan France Germany Consumer prices (1967 = 100) United Kingdom Italy United States 1 Canada Japan France Germany Italy United Kingdom 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.4 123.8 125 1 108.1 108.6 98.9 104.1 112.7 118.2 118.9 120.1 120.6 124.7 138.4 144.8 106 103 101 102 105 106 107 105 102 103 106 112 114.7 112.1 109.6 103.9 107.1 108.4 100 96 98 101 103 108 246.8 272.4 289.1 298.4 311.1 322.2 328.4 243.5 273.9 303.5 321.0 335.0 348.3 362.8 282.3 296.2 304.1 309.7 316.6 323.0 294.2 332.7 373.1 407.9 439.5 465.1 175.8 186.9 196.8 203.3 208.2 212.7 398.0 472.4 549.4 631.8 698.8 764.7 423.6 473.9 514.7 538.3 565.1 599.4 1985: Dec 125.6 121.2 144.6 104 111 106.6 107 327.4 354.7 325.2 472.1 213.5 791.6 608.7 1986: Jan Feb Mar 126.2 125 3 123.6 124.7 124.2 124.2 124.9 125.1 ' 124.9 ' 125.3 ' 126.0 1266 120.3 144.6 120.3 145.2 117.1 144.5 120.2 144.6 117.7 145.1 116.6 145.3 r l!8.1 144.9 116.3 141.3 r l!6.2 ' 146.3 117.5 143.5 116 5 104 107 104 110 103 108 109 109 109 109 113 113 113 117 112 116 117 116 r l!4 114 108.0 111.0 114.5 116.2 108.5 113.7 110.6 105.6 r l!0.8 110.3 109 110 110 111 109 107 110 110 111 110 328.4 327.5 326.0 325.3 326.3 327.9 328.0 328.6 330.2 330.5 330.8 331.1 356.3 357.7 358.5 359.1 360.7 361.3 363.9 365.1 365.1 366.9 368.9 369.5 325.8 324.4 323.5 324.7 326.9 325.2 324.4 323.8 325.4 325.7 324.1 472.6 471.7 472.9 474.7 475.6 477.0 477.5 478.0 479.9 480.9 481.4 213.8 213.3 212.8 212.6 212.6 212.9 211.9 211.4 211.7 211.0 210.8 795.6 801.2 804.4 806.8 809.9 813.1 813.1 814.7 817.1 822.0 610.0 612.2 613.0 619.0 620.1 619.8 618.0 619.9 623.0 623.9 629.2 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 p May July Sept Oct Nov " Dec " Source: National source? as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Trade Administration). U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data for statistical month, not seasonally adjusted*] Merchandise exports: Period Total domestic and foreign exports Merchandise imports Total 2 Food, beverages, and tobacco Crude materials and fuels Merchandise trade balance General imports3 Domestic exports Manufactured goods Total Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (customs value) Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (f.a.s.) Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (c.i.f.) -29,158 -31,076 -27,599 -24,241 -39,179 -42,364 -40,368 -36,354 Food, beverages, and tobacco z Crude materials and fuels Manufactured goods Total (c.i.f. value) 14,227 15,743 17,735 18,551 53,554 51,901 71,390 93,973 76,554 100,317 112,226 125,122 186,045 222,228 256,984 254,885 -31,759 269,878 -57,562 341,177 -107,861 361,626 -132,129 387,082 -152,657 -42,691 -69,392 -123,312 -148,480 -169,777 F.a.s. value 121,232 143,681 181,860 220,630 1977 1978 1979 1980 119,024 141,142 178,633 216,515 15,963 20,604 24,587 30,407 18,579 20,957 28,222 33,719 80,151 94,473 116,587 143,891 150,390 174,757 209,458 244,871 160,411 Customs value 212,193 200,486 217,865 213,146 217,304 1986: Jan* Feb* Mar* Apr* May* June** July** Get* Noy* Dec* 207,076 195,917 212,034 206,925 206,376 26,977 26,979 27,312 22,226 20,223 33,518 29,555 31,482 28,344 26,453 139,716 132,409 143,142 145,384 148,690 243,952 258,048 325,726 345,276 369,961 17,817 18,819 21,626 22,376 24,669 74,404 68,037 72,758 64,981 48,257 144,022 163,449 221,515 246,778 282,121 16,994 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986* 16,479 1,907 2,459 11,221 30,728 2,138 6,011 21,654 32,141 -13,734 -15,146 16,501 17,164 18,349 17,376 16,691 16,427 15,911 16,831 16,860 18,594 17,895 17,777 1,797 1,689 1,706 1,475 1,395 1,438 1,648 1,814 1,672 1,866 1 ,863 1,861 2,467 2,367 2,349 2,436 2,228 1,776 1,764 2,035 1,988 2,287 2,339 2,419 11,393 12,182 13,325 12,615 12,274 12,298 11,623 12,042 12,253 13,367 12,755 12,564 32,005 28,895 31,972 28,762 30,272 31,764 34,121 29,476 28,695 30,018 36,187 27,795 2,215 1,908 2,100 2,018 2,329 1,886 2,143 1,931 1,963 1,935 2,328 1,912 6,234 4,741 4,284 3,176 3,659 4,163 3,963 3,413 3,874 3,514 3,866 3,371 22,477 21,289 24,261 22,226 23,001 23,971 26,609 23,106 21,849 23,537 28,350 21,446 33,465 30,225 33,435 30,036 31,638 33,240 35,745 30,925 30,078 31,389 37,816 29,089 -14,999 -11,161 -13,059 -10,797 -12,842 -12,694 -16,414 -11,871 — 11,177 -10,688 -17,592 -9,364 -16,459 -12,491 -14,522 -12,071 -14,208 -14,170 -18,037 -13,321 -12,560 - 12,059 -19,221 - 10,658 17,006 17,735 18,913 17,965 17,431 19,070 17,707 17,604 17,518 19,330 18,595 18,431 1 Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded through 1984 and included beginning 1985. z Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. 3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. NOTE.—Imports on c.i.f. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods. Data beginning 1980 include trade of t'he U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Islands exports are reflected in the figures for domestic and foreign exports combined and trade balance. For further information and for details regarding revised Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the third quarter of 1986 the current account deficit was $36.3 billion, up from $34.4 billion in the second quarter. The merchandise trade deficit rose to $37.7 billion from $35.7 billion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 10 10 BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES 5 5 YC— ~s\ A 0 I BALANCE ON CURRENT ACCOUNT '"*"*'> S /' Vi * \ \ /' ^ 1 I / MER ff _e \ f 1 ' -15 n '* ". ' :HANDISE TRA BALANCE -10 A\\ \\i -15 \ -20 -20 "\ A - -25 -25 30 -30 \ \ -35 -35 1 11 -40 1 1978 1 1 1979 1 1 1 1980 I I ! 1 1 1 i i> M l I I I i l l 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 -40 * SEASONALLY ADJUS TED SOURCE: DEPARTMEN T OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISER [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits ( —)] Merchandise :2 Investment income 3 Net Period Exports 184 473 224 269 237 085 211 198 201 820 219 900 214 424 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1983- I II Imports — 212 249 — 265 247 009 749 063 642 — 268 900 — 332 422 338 863 Net balance Receipts Payments 27 536 25 480 27 978 36444 — 67*080 64 132 72 506 86411 83 549 32 960 42 120 52 329 54 883 — 52 410 112 522 124 439 77 251 86 221 89 991 Net military transactions Net travel and transportation receipts Other services, net 3 Balance on goods and services 1 5 138 9 466 9 237 1 183 274 369 1 827 2 917 2 935 997 144 6 214 7 793 8 699 67 469 64 803 31 172 30 386 34 082 28 666 24 841 18 752 25 188 992 4 227 8 593 11 128 8 829 9 711 9 881 10 603 1 778 Remittances, pensions, and other unilateral transfers 1 6 128 13 764 214 37 123 94 308 7 593 7 425 8 917 9 481 12 157 Balance on current account 991 i 070 6 339 Q 1 01 46 604 49 642 49,216 50,351 52,611 — 59476 -64,798 -70,740 -73,886 — 9 834 -15,582 -20,389 -21,275 18 077 18,732 20,684 19,758 — 12 228 — 12,807 -13,536 -13,839 5 849 5,925 7,148 5,919 492 32 -131 -762 588 -916 -1,226 -1,497 2 238 2,486 2,436 2,552 1 843 -8,055 -12,162 -15,063 1 752 -2,021 -2,375 -3,333 -10,076 -14,537 -18,396 n rn IV 53,614 54,590 55,691 56,005 -79,415 -83,684 -84,144 -85,179 — 25,801 -29,094 -28,453 -29,174 22,860 21,104 21,396 20,861 - 15,446 -17,208 -17,991 -16,823 7,414 3,896 3,405 4,038 -281 -615 -234 -696 -1,834 -2,052 -2,332 -2,375 2,630 2,471 2,448 2,333 -17,872 -25,394 -25,166 -25,874 -2,368 -2,439 -3,107 -4,243 -20,240 -27,833 -28,273 -30,117 1985' I II HI IV 55 324 53,875 52,498 52,727 80 369 -84,242 -84,173 -90,079 25 045 -30,367 -31,675 -37,352 18 726 22,253 24,502 24,509 16 507 -16,804 -16,240 -15,254 2 219 5,449 8,262 9,255 246 — 729 -619 -1,322 2 202 -2,864 -3,031 -3,031 2 442 2,552 2,609 2,999 22 832 -25,959 — 24,454 -29,451 -3,458 -4,001 -4,244 -29,417 -28,455 -33,695 1986: I 53,661 55,149 55,318 -90,120 -90,818 -92,987 -36,459 -35,669 -37,669 24,216 22,636 22,482 -17,699 -17,311 -16,973 6,517 5,325 5,509 -1,066 -695 -624 -2,701 -2,395 -2,415 2,694 3,100 3,096 -31,015 -30,334 -32,103 -3,023 -4,079 -4,177 -34,038 -34,413 -36,280 Ill IV 1984: I n III? 1 Excludes military grants. Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. 2 3 36 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Q KQK Q OOf) U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $20.5 billion in the third quarter of 1986 compared with a rise of $14.4 billion in the second quarter. Liabilities to foreigners and international financial institutions reported by U.S. banks increased $32.2 billion in the third quarter of 1986 compared to an increase of $3.6 billion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 80 80 CHANGE IN FOREIGN ASSETS IN THE U.S..NET 60 60 40 40 20 / \ ; \ / i 20 ; \ 1 / -20 \ CHANGE IN U.S. ASSETS ABROAD.NET- V -20 V -40 -40 I -60 1978 I I 1979 I 1980 I I I 1981 I I J 1 LJ_ 1983 1982 1984 I I 1985 I I I -60 1986 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Foreign assets in the U.S., net [increase /capital inflow ( + )] 2 U.S. assets abroad, net [increase/capit Period Total U.S. official reserve assets 1 2 -64,331 -86,118 -111,031 -121,273 -50,022 -23,639 -32,436 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 -1,133 -8,155 -5,175 -4,965 -1,196 -3,131 -3,858 Other U.S. Government assets U.S. private assets -3,746 -59,453 -5,162 -72,802 -5,097 -100,758 -6,131 — 110,177 -5,005 43 821 -5,523 -14,986 -2,824 -25,754 Total Foreign official assets Other foreign assets 38,752 58,112 83,322 94,078 85,496 102,767 127,106 -13,665 15,497 4,960 3,593 5,968 3,037 -1,324 52,416 42,615 78,362 90,486 79,527 99,730 128,430 Statistical discrepancy Allocations of special drawing rights (SDKs) 1,139 1,152 1,093 Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy U.S. official reserve assets, net1 (unadjusted, end of period) 18,956 26,756 30,074 33,958 33,747 34,934 43,186 25,431 24,982 20,276 36,325 11,130 27,338 23 006 1983: I II Ill IV -23,691 -523 -8,621 -17,186 -787 16 529 -953 -1,134 -1,263 -1,171 -1,436 -21,770 724 -7,979 -14,797 16,200 15,756 19,531 34,009 38 1,591 -2,662 7,002 16,162 14,165 22,194 27,007 11,086 -5,157 3,626 1,573 -88 -176 -3,155 3,417 34,261 33,876 33,066 33,747 1984: I II Ill IV -3,571 -20,171 16,443 -16,338 — 657 -566 -799 — 1,110 -2,029 -1,386 -1,388 — 717 -885 -18,220 18,630 -14,512 22,251 41,963 2,668 35,885 -2,947 -157 -765 6,906 25,198 42,120 3,433 28,979 1,560 6,040 9,162 10,570 940 -962 -3,561 3,577 34,975 34,547 34,306 34,934 1985: I II Ill IV -510 -2,793 -5,867 -23,266 -233 -356 -121 -3,148 -807 — 1,055 -422 -540 530 -1,382 -5,324 -19,579 14,247 25,358 35,665 51,837 -11,066 8,486 2,577 -1,322 25,313 16,872 33,088 53,158 12,375 6,852 -1,343 5,125 1,094 -1,174 -3,687 3,771 35,493 36,088 38,295 43,186 I -12,898 -25,550 29 082 -115 16 280 -250 -209 1 346 -12,533 -25,357 -28,016 36,620 47,526 69,133 2,469 14,704 15,839 34,151 32,822 53,294 10,316 12,437 -3,771 1,216 -1,505 -3,993 44,919 46,595 48,087 1986: n in "... its (SDKs), convertible currencies, arid the U.S. reserve Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasurv. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets Consumer Installment Credit Bank Loans and Securities, and Reserves Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. 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