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100th Congress, 1st Sessio

Economic Indicators
JANUARY 1987
Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the




Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1987

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland, Chairman
LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Vice Chairman
SENATE
WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin)
LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas)
EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)
JOHN MELCHER (Montana)
JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico)
WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)
STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho)
ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York)
PETE WILSON (California)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California)
DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin)
JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York)
FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California)
CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio)
OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine)
HAMILTON FISH, JR. (New York)
J. ALEX McMILLAN, HI (North Carolina)

JUDITH DAVISON, Executive Director

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
BERYL W. SPRINKEL, Chairman
THOMAS G. MOORE, Member
MICHAEL L. MUSSA, Member
[PUBLIC LAW 120—SlsT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the
Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that
a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant
at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two
copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the
Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for
distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies
printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.

Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.50 a single copy
($3.13 foreign), or by subscription at $27.00 per year ($33.75 for foreign
mailing) from:
SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402

11



TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
According to preliminary estimates for the fourth quarter, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 2.6
percent (annual rate) or $27.7 billion. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 1.7 percent and the implicit
price deflator rose 1.0 percent.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
4,400

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
4,400

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

4,000

4,000

3,600

3,600

3,200

3,200
GNP
IN 1982 DOLLARS

2,800

2,800

2,400

2,400

2,000

2,000

I

1,600
1978

1979

I

I

I

1980

I

1

1983

1982

1981

I
1984

I 1
1985

1,600
1986

SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

Gross
national
product

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Gross
private
domestic
ment

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986 *

2,249.7
2,508.2
2,732.0
3,052.6
3,166.0
3,405.7
3,765.0
3,998.1
4,208.5

1,403.5
1,566.8
1,732.6
1,915.1
2,050.7
2,234.5
2,428.2
2,600.5
2,762.4

416.8
454.8
437.0
515.5
447.3
502.3
662.1
661.1
686.4

Government purchases of
goods and services

Exports and imports of goods
and services

Federal

Net
exports

4.1
18.8
32.1
33.9
26.3
-6.1
-58.7
-78.9
-105.7

14.1

Exports

Imports

Total
Total

227.5
291.2
351.0
382.8
361.9
352.5
382.7
369.8
373.0

223.4
272.5
318.9
348.9
335.6
358.7
441.4
448.6
478.7

National
defense

425.2
467.8
530.3
588.1
641.7
675.0
733.4
815.4
865.3

161.8
178.0
208.1
242.2
272.7
283.5
311.3
354.1
367.2

108.9
121.9
142.7
167.5
193.8
214.4
235.0
259.4
278.4

Nondefense
52.9
56.1
65.4
74.8
78.9
69.1
76.2
94.7
88.9

State
and
local
263.4
289.9
322.2
345.9
369.0
391.5
422.2
461.3
498.1

Final
sales

2,221.0
2,495.2
2,740.3
3,028.6
3,190.5
3,412.8
3,700.9
3,987.0
4,197.1

1982: IT

3,212.5

2,117.0

409.6

335.9

321.9

671.8

293.2

205.4

87.7

378.7

3,272.4

1983- IV

3,545.8

2,315.8

579.8

-25.8

364.7

390.5

676.1

276.1

221.5

54.6

400.0

3,514.8

1984- I

IV

3,670.9
3,743.8
3,799.7
3,845.6

2,363.8
2,416.1
2,445.6
2,487.2

659.5
657.5
670.3
661.1

-45.6
-63.2
-60.0
-66.1

373.4
382.1
389.2
386.2

419.0
445.3
449.1
452.2

693.2
733.3
743.8
763.4

283.4
315.2
317.2
329.1

227.1
233.7
234.5
244.9

56.3
81.6
82.7
84.2

409.8
418.1
426.6
434.3

3,575.4
3,683.9
3,735.3
3,808.9

1985- I
II
Ill
IV

3,909.3
3,965.0
4,030.5
4,087.7

2,530.9
2,576.0
2,627.1
2,667.9

650.6
667.1
657.4
669.5

-49.4
-77.1
-83.7
-105.3

378.4
370.0
362.3
368.2

427.9
447.1
446.0
473.6

777.3
799.0
829.7
855.6

333.7
340.9
360.9
380.9

248.9
255.1
265.5
268.0

84.8
85.8
95.5
112.9

443.5
458.1
468.8
474.7

3,883.9
3,945.9
4,027.4
4,090.8

1986- I

4,149.2
4,175.6
4,240.7
4,268.4

2,697.9
2,732.0
2,799.8
2,819.9

708.3
687.3
675.8
674.5

-93.7
-104.5
-108.9
— 115.6

374.8
363.0
370.8
383.4

468.5
467.5
479.7
499.0

836.7
860.8
874.0
889.7

355.7
367.6
369.3
376.3

266.4
278.4
286.8
281.9

89.3
89.2
82.6
94.4

480.9
493.3
504.7
513.3

4,105.4
4,161.2
4,245.2
4,276.7

n
m

n
m
IV

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic An




GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS
[Billions of 1982 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

Gross
national
product

Gross private
domestic investment

Government purchases of
goods and services

Exports of goods
and services

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Nonresidential
fixed

Residential
fixed

Change
in
business
inventories

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986 '

3,115.2
3,192.4
3,187.1
3,248.8
3,166.0
3,279.1
3,489.9
3,585.2
3,676.5

1,961.0
2,004.4
2,000.4
2,024.2
2,050.7
2,146.0
2,246.3
2,324.5
2,418.6

362.1
389.4
379.2
395.2
366.7
361.2
422.2
461.4
455.0

178.0
170.8
137.0
126.5
105.1
149.3
170.6
177.2
193.9

36.8
15.0
-6.9
23.9
-24.5
-6.4
59.2
9.0
10.8

1982- IV

3,159.3

2,078.7

352.3

115.8

1983- IV

3,365.1

2,191.9

390.4

159.9

1984: I
JI
III
IV

3,444.7
3,487.1
3,507.4
3,520.4

2,213.8
2,246.3
2,253.3
2,271.7

394.4
419.5
427.1
447.6

1985: I
II
Ill
IV

3,547.0
3,567.6
3,603.8
3,622.3

2,292.3
2,311.9
2,342.0
2,351.7

1986- I
II
Ill
IV

3,635.9
3,661.4
3,686.4
3,702.4

2,372.7
2,408.4
2,448.0
2,445.1

Federal
Net
exports

Exports

Imports

Total
Total

National
defense

Nondefense

State
and
local

Final
sales

-26.8
3.6
57.0
49.4
26.3
— 19.9
-83.6
-108.2
-149.7

312.6
356.8
388.9
392.7
361.9
348.1
369.7
362.3
371.3

339.4
353.2
332.0
343.4
335.6
368.1
453.2
470.5
521.0

604.1
609.1
620.5
629.7
641.7
649.0
675.2
721.2
748.0

233.7
236.2
246.9
259.6
272.7
275.1
291.7
323.6
333.4

160.7
164.3
171.2
180.3
193.8
206.9
219.4
235.7
251.0

73.0
71.9
75.7
79.3
78.9
68.2
72.3
87.8
82.4

370.4
373.0
373.6
370.1
369.0
373.9
383.5
397.6
414.5

3,078.4
3,177.4
3,194.0
3,225.0
3,190.5
3,285.5
3,430.7
3,576.2
3,665.7

-59.3

11.7

336.0

324.3

660.1

289.5

201.4

88.2

370.6

3,218.6

27.0

-46.2

355.5

401.6

642.2

266.0

211.6

54.4

376.2

3,338.1

169.7
173.2
171.2
168.3

85.1
57.0
60.6
33.9

-68.6
-87.2
-85.7
-92.7

361.3
367.0
375.5
375.0

429.9
454.2
461.2
467.7

650.2
678.2
681.0
691.5

271.2
296.3
295.6
303.8

214.4
219.0
218.4
225.9

56.8
77.3
77.1
77.9

379.0
381.8
385.4
387.7

3,359.6
3,430.0
3,446.8
3,486.4

442.7
463.0
463.1
476.9

172.4
175.1
180.0
181.5

23.2
17.4
.7
-5.2

-78.8
-108.1
-113.8
-132.0

369.4
361.2
355.8
362.9

448.2
469.3
469.6
494.8

695.3
708.3
731.8
749.4

305.8
311.4
329.9
347.2

228.0
233.5
242.2
239.3

77.8
77.9
87.6
107.9

389.5
396.9
401.9
402.2

3,523.9
3,550.2
3,603.1
3,627.5

457.8
456.8
454.4
451.0

186.3
192.7
197.2
199.3

39.9
15.1
-.3
-11.5

-125.9
-153.9
-163.3
-155.6

369.2
359.8
371.2
385.3

495.1
513.6
534.5
540.8

725.2
742.2
750.4
774.1

320.4
328.9
330.9
353.5

238.7
249.3
259.4
256.5

81.7
79.5
71.5
97.0

404.8
413.3
419.5
420.6

3,616.1
3,646.3
3,686.7
3,713.9

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analys

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
[1982 — 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]
Gross private
domestic investment

Personal consumption
expenditures
Period

Gross
national
product

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986 "

72.2
78.6
85.7
94.0
100.0
103.9
107.9
111.5
114.5

Total

Durable
goods

71.6
78.2
86.6
94.6
100.0
104.1
108.1
111.9
114.2

76.9
82.1
89.2
95.7
100.0
102.1
103.8
104.5
105.3

Nondurable goods

71.9
80.0
89.4
96.9
100.0
102.1
105.0
107.5
106.9

Services

Nonresidential
fixed

69.8
75.6
83.9
92.6
100.0
106.2
111.7
117.3
122.4

71.5
77.8
85.1
93.4
100.0
98.8
98.7
99.3
100.8

Exports and imports of
goods and services

Government purchases of goods and
services
Federal

Residential fixed

72.6
81.4
89.4
96.6
100.0
102.2
106.3
108.2
111.7

Exports

Imports
Total

72.8
81.6
90.2
97.5
100.0
101.3
103.5
102.1
100.4

65.8
77.1
96.0
101.6
100.0
97.4
97.4
95.4
91.9

69.2
75.4
84.3
93.3
100.0
103.1
106.7
109.4
110.1

National
defense

67.8
74.2
83.4
92.9
100.0
103.6
107.1
110.0
110.9

Nondefense

State
and local

72.4
78.0
86.4
94.3
100.0
101.4
105.5
107.9
107.8

71.1
77.7
86.2
93.4
100.0
104.7
110.1
116.0
120.1

1982- IV

101.7

101.8

100.7

101.0

102.7

100.7

99.1

100.0

99.3

101.3

102.0

99.5

102.2

1983- IV

105.4

105.7

103.1

103.1

108.3

98.3

103.1

102.6

97.2

103.8

104.7

100.3

106.3

1984: I
II
III
IV

106.6
107.4
108.3
109.2

106.8
107.6
108.5
109.5

103.3
103.9
104.1
104.1

104.4
104.5
105.1
106.0

109.6
110.9
112.4
113.6

98.4
98.5
98.8
99.0

103.6
106.4
107.5
107.8

103.4
104.1
103.6
103.0

97.5
98.0
97.4
96.7

104.5
106.4
107.3
108.3

105.9
106.7
107.3
108.4

99.2
105.5
107.3
108.2

108.1
109.5
110.7
112.0

1985- I

110.2
111.1
111.8
112.8

110.4
111.4
112.2
113.4

104.6
104.5
104.5
104.3

106.5
107.2
107.5
108.9

115.0
116.6
118.0
119.5

99.4
99.2
99.3
99.4

107.6
107.8
108.1
109.4

102.4
102.4
101.8
101.5

95.5
95.3
95.0
95.7

109.1
109.5
109.4
109.7

109.2
109.3
109.6
112.0

109.0
110.2
108.9
104.6

113.9
115.4
116.6
118.0

113.5
114.0
115.0
115.3

113.7
113.4
114.4
115.3

104.5
104.7
105.9
106.0

108.0
105.8
106.6
107.3

120.6
121.8
123.0
124.3

100.3
100.2
101.0
101.6

110.2
111.7
112.2
112.7

101.5
100.9
99.9
99.5

94.6
91.0
89.7
92.3

111.0
111.8
111.6
106.5

111.6
111.7
110.5
109.9

109.2
112.1
115.4
97.3

118.8
119.4
120.3
122.1

n

Ill
IV
1986: I

n
m

IV

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND
RELATED PRICE MEASURES
[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gross national product
Period

Constant
(1982)
dollars

Current
dollars

-0.2
1.9
-2.5
3.6
6.4
2.7
2.5
.6
7.3
9.8
5.0
2.3
1.5
3.1
2.3
4.1
2.1
3.8
.6
2.8
1.7

8.9
11.7
3.7
7.6
10.5
6.2
5.3
4.2
12.4
14.9
8.2
6.1
4.9
6.8
5.8
6.8
5.8
6.2
2.6
6.4
2.6

1980
1981
1982

1983
1984
1985
1986 *
1982: IV
1983- IV
1984- I
II
III
IV
1985- I
II

m
IV

1986- I
II
Ill
IV

Implicit
price
deflator

Personal consumption expenditures

Chain price
index

9.0
9.7
6.4
3.9
3.8
3.3
2.7
3.6
4.7
4.6
3.0
3.4
3.4
3.7
3.3
2.5
3.6
2.5
1.8
3.6
1.0

NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter.

9.0
9.4
6.3
4.1
4.0
3.6
2.5
4.1
3.9
4.8
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.9
3.5
2.5
3.9
1.9
1.5
2.5
2.3

Fixedweighted
price index
(1982
weights)

Constant
(1982)
dollars

Current
dollars

9.3
9.3
6.2
4.1
4.0
3.7
2.8
4.0
4.0
4.7
3.6
3.5
3.6
4.2
3.6
2.8
4.0
2.5
1.7
2.6
2.6

10.6
10.5
7.1
9.0
8.7
7.1
6.2
10.3
9.7
8.6
9.1
5.0
7.0
7.2
7.3
8.2
6.4
4.6
5.2
10.3
2.9

-0.2
1.2
1.3
4.6
4.7
3.5
4.0
5.3
5.5
4.1
6.0
1.3
3.3
3.7
3.5
5.3
1.7
3.6
6.2
6.7
-.5

Implicit
price
deflator

Chain price
index

10.7
9.2
5.7
4.1
3.8
3.5
2.1
4.4
4.3
4.2
3.0
3.4
3.7
3.3
3.7
2.9
4.3
1.1
-1.1
3.6
3.2

Fixedweighted
price index
(1982
weights)

10.9
9.2
5.7
4.2
4.0
3.6
2.4
4.8
4.1
4.5
3.0
3.7
3.7
3.5
4.0
2.8
4.7
1.4
_

10.5

9.0
5.6
4.2
4.0
3.7
2.5
4.8
4.1
4.7
3.0
3.8
3.8
3.8
4.2
3.0
4.7
1.5
-.4
3.4
3.5

Q

3.6
3.6

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND
PROFITS
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollars) 1

Gross domestic
product of
nonfmancial
corporate business
(billions of dollars)
Period
Current
dollars

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986 *
1982- IV
1983- IV
1984- I
II

in

IV
1985- I
II

in
rv

1986- I

n
HI

1

1982
dollars

1,540.8
1,738.4
1,782.2
1,914.2
2,143.7
2,275.1
2,361.5
1,779.4
2,012.5
2,081.7
2,135.9
2,160.3
2,196.8
2,226.0
2,259.1
2,301.3
2,314.1
2,343.6
2,341.5
2,370.0

1,807.9
1,837.2
1,782.2
1,866.0
2,030.8
2,105.5
2,144.9
1,760.2
1,940.5
1,993.8
2,031.6
2,038.4
2,059.4
2,075.7
2,094.4
2,124.6
2,127.3
2,141.0
2,135.3
2,142.2

Corporate profits with
inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments

Total
cost
and
profit 2

Capital
consumption
allowances
with
capital
consumption
adjustment

Indirect
business
taxes 3

0.852
.946
1.000
1.026
1.056
1.081
1.101
1.011
1.037
1.044
1.051
1.060
1.067
1.072
1.079
1.083
1.088
1.095
1.097
1.106

0.095
.109
.125
.123
.118
.120
.123
.131
.120
.118
.117
.118
.119
.119
.120
.119
.121
.121
.123
.123

0.077
.090
.094
.098
.100
.103
.106
.096
.098
.099
.100
.101
.101
.102
.104
.103
.104
.106
.103
.107

Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1982 dol-

lars.

3
4

Compensation of
employees

Net
interest

0.581
.632
.676
.679
.690
.708
.725
.685
.680
.683
.684
.694
.699
.704
.708
.705
.716
.721
.724
.727

0.031
.037
.043
.037
.041
.043
.041
.042
.037
.037
.039
.042
.043
.044
.043
.042
.042
.042
.041
.040

Total

0.068
.078
.063
.089
.107
.106
.107
.057
.103
.107
.111
.104
.104
.103
.104
.113
.105
.105
.106
.109

Profits
tax
liability

0.037
.035
.026
.032
.037
.032
.035
.023
.036
.041
.040
.034
.032
.031
.029
.033
.033
.032
.034
.036

Profits
after
tax 4

0.031
.044
.037
.057
.070
.075
.072
.034
.066
.067
.071
.070
.072
.073
.075
.080
.072
.073
.072
.072

Output
per hour
of all
employees
(1982
dollars)

Compensation
per hour
of all
employees
(dollars)

17.096
17.194
17.318
17.867
18.224
18.436

9.939
10.861
11.699
12.124
12.574
13.060

17.383
18.027
18.172
18.275
18.201
18.250
18.285
18.384
18.604
18.472
18.449
r
18.438
' 18.445

11.915
12.259
12.406
12.498
12.630
12.758
12.878
13.011
13.121
13.229
13.294
13.347
' 13.406

Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies.
With inventon- valuation and capital consumption adjustments.

2

This is equai to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with
the decimal point shifted two places to the left.




Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor
(Bureau of Labor Statistics).

NATIONAL INCOME
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

National
income

Period

Compensation of
employees1

Proprietors' income
with inventory
valuation and capital
consumption
adjustments

Farm

Rental
income of
persons
with
capital
consumption
adjustment

Nonfarm

Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments
Profits with inventory valuation
adjustment and without capital
consumption adjustment
Total
Total

Profits
before tax

Inventory
valuation
adjustment

Capital
consumption
adjustment

Net
interest

1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986 "
1982- IV
1983- IV
1984- I .
II
Ill
IV
1985- I
II
III
IV

2,443.5
2,518.4
2,719.5
3,032.0
3,222.3
3,387.4
2,548.2
2,851.5
2,963.2
3,010.3
3,052.3
3,102.0
3,157.0
3,201.4
3,243.4
3,287.3

1,807.4
1,907.0
2,020.7
2,214.7
2,368.2
2,498.3
1,931.1
2,092.7
2,153.7
2,195.4
2,234.7
2,275.0
2,316.3
2,352.1
2,380.9
2,423.6

30.7
24.6
12.4
31.5
29.2
26.4
28.5
19.3
44.5
26.4
24.7
30.4
32.9
33.0
21.6
29.4

156.1
150.9
178.4
205.3
225.2
252.5
159.8
188.6
198.0
203.2
209.9
210.3
217.8
222.5
227.7
232.7

13.3
13.6
13.2
8.3
7.6
15.6
15.8
12.4
12.1
8.4
7.1
5.6
6.8
8.1
7.3
8.3

188.0
150.0
213.7
264.7
280.7
299.7
146.1
248.5
262.5
271.7
259.8
265.0
266.4
274.3
206.3
285.6

202.3
159.2
196.7
230.2
222.6
242.9
150.7
223.4
235.7
241.5
223.3
220.3
213.3
215.4
235.3
226.4

226.5
169.6
207.6
235.7
223.2
236.6
164.1
231.5
249.3
246.5
225.1
221.9
213.8
213.8
229.2
235.8

-24.2
-10.4
-10.9
— 5.5
-.6
6.3
-13.4
-8.1
-13.6
-4.9
-1.8
-1.6
— .5
1.6
6.1
-9.4

-14.4
-9.2
17.0
34.5
58.1
56.8
— 4.5
25.1
26.7
30.2
36.5
44.7
53.2
58.9
61.0
59.2

248.1
272.3
281.0
307.4
311.4
294.9
266.9
290.2
292.5
305.2
316.1
315.7
316.8
311.4
309.7
307.6

1986- I ..
II
III .
IV

3,340.7
3,376.4
3,396.1

2,461.5
2,480.2
2,507.4
2,544.2

24.4
39.5
19.6
22.2

240.9
249.6
258.0
261.6

12.8
16.3
16.2
17.0

296.4
293.1
302.0

239.0
238.3
246.5

222.5
227.7
240.4

16.5
10.6
6.1
-8.0

57.3
54.8
55.5
59.5

304.9
297.7
292.9
284.1

1

Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.)

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Nondurable goods

Durable goods
Total
personal
consumption
expenditures

Total
durable
goods

1985- I
II
III
IV

1,915.1
2,050.7
2,234.5
2,428.2
2,600.5
2,762.4
2,117.0
2,315.8
2,363.8
2,416.1
2,445.6
2,487.2
2,530.9
2 5760
2,627.1
2,667.9

239.9
252.7
289.1
331.2
359.3
388.3
263.8
310.0
321.2
331.3
331.8
340.4
347.7
354.0
373.3
362.0

100.5
108.9
130.4
154.5
169.2
182.3
115.7
144.4
150.4
155.8
154.4
157.6
162.3
165.3
182.8
166.4

92.7
95.7
107.1
118.9
126.8
137.0
99.1
112.4
115.6
118.3
119.2
122.3
123.5
125.9
126.8
130.9

46.6
48.1
51.6
57.8
63.3
69.0
49.0
53.2
55.2
57.2
58.3
60.4
61.9
62.8
63.7
64.7

740.6
771.0
816.7
870.1
905.1
932.7
786.6
837.9
855.7
870.3
873.9
880.3
888.2
902.3
907.4
922.6

1986- I
II
HI
IV

2,697.9
2,732.0
2,799.8
2,819.9

360.8
373.9
414.5
404.2

163.5
172.0
204.7
189.0

132.1
135.8
140.0
140.2

65.3
66.0
69.8
75.0

929.7
928.4
932.8
940.0

Period

1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986 p
1982- IV
1983- IV
1984- I
II
Ill

rv

..

. .

. .

Motor

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




cles
and
parts

Furniture
and
household
equipment

Other

Total
nondurable
goods

Services

Retail sales of
new passenger
cars (millions of
units)

Clothing and
shoes

Gasoline
and oil

376.5
398.8
421.9
449.9
469.3
492.8
407.0
430.8
440.4
447.9
454.3
456.9
461.2
468.3
470.4
477.4

119.9
124.4
135.1
147.2
155.2
164.8
126.5
141.1
144.4
148.2
146.6
149.7
151.7
155.0
155.4
158.7

92.7
89.1
90.2
90.7
91.9
78.7
89.8
91.9
92.0
91.7
89.4
89.9
89.6
92.8
92.4
93.0

151.6
158.7
169.5
182.2
188.7
196.5
163.4
174.0
178.8
182.5
183.6
183.8
185.8
186.2
189.1
193.5

934.7
1,027.0
1,128.7
1,227.0
1,336.1
1,441.3
1,066.5
1,167.9
1,186.9
1,214.5
1,239.9
1,266.5
1,294.9
1,319.7
1,346.4
1,383.2

6.2
5.8
6.8
8.0
8.2
8.2
6.0
7.4
8.1
8.1
7.9
7.7
8.3
8.1
9.4
7.0

2.3
2.2
2.4
2.4
2.8
3.2
2.5
2.6
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.6
2.4
2.7
3.0
3.2

484.6
490.3
494.0
502.2

161.3
165.0
166.6
166.2

87.6
78.1
74.2
74.9

196.2
194.9
198.0
196.7

1,407.4
1,429.8
1,452.4
1,475.7

7.8
8.1
9.7
7.9

2.8
3.1
3.5
3.6

Food

Other

Domestics

Imports

SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income rose $28.2 billion (annual rate) in December, following a rise of $7.8 billion in November. The
increases were affected by two special factors: large increases in subsidy payments to farmers in December and
bonus payments to employees in the automobile industry in October. Excluding the effect of these factors, personal
income rose $7.6 billion in December and $16.6 billion in November.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
3,800

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
1 3,800

3,200

3,200

1,600

1,600
WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS

800

800
OTHER INCOME

400

400

\
TRANSFER
PAYMENTS

200 |_L
1978

1979

1983

1982

1981

1980

i Iii i '
1984

i i i i i I i i in
1985

i i i i i I 700
1986

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Total
personal
income

Period

Wage and
salary
disbursements

Proprietors' income 3
Other labor
income :2

Farm

Nonfarm

Rental
income of
persons 4

Personal
dividend
income

Personal
interest
income

Transfer
payments 5

Less:
Personal
contributions
for social
insurance

Nonfarm
personal
income 6

1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986 p

2,033.9
2,258.4
2,520.9
2,670.8
2,838.6
3,110.2
3,314.5
3,487.0

1,252.1
1,372.0
1,510.3
1,586.1
1,676.6
1,836.8
1,966.1
2,073.8

122.7
138.4
150.3
163.6
173.6
184.5
196.9
208.8

31.7
20.5
30.7
24.6
12.4
31.5
29.2
26.4

160.1
160.1
156.1
150.9
178.4
205.3
225.2
252.5

5.6
6.6
13.3
13.6
13.2
8.3
7.6
15.6

48.1
52.9
61.3
63.9
68.7
74.7
76.4
81.2

221.4
271.9
335.4
369.7
393.1
446.9
476.2
475.4

273.1
324.7
368.1
410.6
442.6
455.6
487.1
513.7

81.0
88.6
104.5
112.3
120.1
133.5
150.2
160.3

1,983.1
2,215.8
2,465.6
2,618.7
2,799.0
3,052.2
3,261.0
3,437.8

1985: Dec

3,418.0

2,031.1

202.6

38.2

234.9

11.7

76.9

482.2

494.5

154.0

3,356.9

1986' Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept

3,417.4
3,435.3
3,445.1
3,486.8
3,481.3
3,481.9
3,490.8
3,497.9
3,507.9
3,518.8
3,526.6
3,554.8

2,035.7
2,044.8
2,051.8
2,054.9
2,058.4
2,063.2
2,072.0
2,083.4
2,088.0
2,102.3
2,112.2
2,118.9

203.6
204.5
205.5
206.4
207.3
208.2
209.5
210.4
211.3
212.1
213.0
213.8

23.4
26.9
22.8
53.0
38.1
27.5
18.3
19.1
21.3
18.2
14.3
34.0

237.9
241.0
243.8
247.5
249.1
252.2
255.4
257.5
261.0
260.4
262.1
262.1

12.2
12.7
13.5
15.1
16.6
17.1
16.5
16.1
16.0
16.3
17.0
17.8

78.0
79.2
80.0
80.8
81.1
81.5
81.7
82.1
82.3
82.4
82.7
82.9

481.4
480.7
480.4
480.5
480.1
479.8
477.2
473.7
470.4
468.4
466.6
465.2

503.4
504.2
506.5
507.9
510.7
511.8
520.3
516.5
518.7
520.5
521.4
523.1

158.0
158.7
159.1
159.2
159.9
159.3
160.2
160.9
161.1
162.0
162.6
162.9

3,371.1
3,385.6
3,399.5
3,411.0
3,420.5
3,431.7
3,449.6
3,455.9
3,463.7
3,477.6
3,489.4
3,498.0

Get T
Nov

Dec

r

p




..

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME
Real per capita disposable personal income fell again in the fourth quarter of 1986.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS Of DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)

1,400

1,000
DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
14,000

1,000
DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
14,000
—
PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME
12,000

12,000
10,000

10,000
1982 DOLLARS

8,000

8,000

6,000

6,000

I

4,000

I

I

1978

I
1980

1981

1982

1984

1983

1985

I

I

I 4,000

1986

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE

Period

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Personal
income

Less:
Personal
tax and
nontax
payments

Equals:
Disposable
personal
income

Less:
Personal
outlays 1

Equals:
Persona!
saving

Disposable
persona!
income
in
1982
dollars
(billions)

Current
dollars

1,812.4
2,033.9
2,258.4
2,520.9
2,670.8
2,838.6
3,110.2
3,314.5
3,487.0

261.1
304.7
340.5
393.3
409.3
410.5
439.6
486.5
513.4

1,551.2
1,729.3
1,917.9
2,127.6
2,261.4
2,428.1
2,670.6
2,828.0
2,973.7

Current
dollars

1982
dollars

1982
dollars

1,441.1
1,611.3
1,781.1
1,968.1
2,107.5
2,297.4
2,501.9
2,684.7
2,857.4

110.2
118.0
136.8
159.4
153.9

130.6
168.7
143.3
116.3

2,167.4
2,212.6
2,214.3
2,248.6
2,261.5
2,331.9
2,470.6
2,528.0
2,603.7

6,968
7,682
8,421
9,243
9,724
10,340
11,265
11,817
12,312

9,735
9,829
9,722
9,769
9,725
9,930
10,421
10,563
10,780

Saving
as
percent
of
disposable
personal
income

Population,
including
Armed
Forces
abroad
(thousands) 2

3.8
1.0
— 1.1
.5
-.5
2.1
4.9
1.4
2.1

7.1
6.8
7.1
7.5
6.8
5.4
6.3
5.1
3.9

222,629
225,106
227,754
230,182
232,549
234,829
237,067
239,317
241,522

change in
reai per
capita
disposable
personal
income
Percent

Dollars

Billions of dollars

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986"

Per capita personal
consumption
expenditures

Per capita
disposable personal
income

6,304
6,960
7,607
8,320

8,808
8,904
8,783
8,794

8,818
9,515

8,818
9,139

10,243
10,866
11,437

9,475
10,014

9,713

Seasonally adjusted annual rates

1982: IV

2,729.2

411.1

2,318.1

2,174.9

1983: IV

2,941.8

413.9

2,527.9

2,382.5

1984: I
II
Ill ....
IV

3,034.2
3,077.4
3,139.7
3,189.6

421.5
431.2
445.9
460.0

2,612.7
2,646.3
2,693.8
2,729.6

2,433.5
2,488.7
2,520.9
2,564.6

1985: I
II
III....

3,253.1
3,298.7
3,323.2
3,382.9

497.7
456.4
491.2
500.7

2,755.4
2,842.3
2,832.0
2,882.2

2,611.3
2,658.7
2,712.4
2,756.4

3,432.6
3,483.3
3,498.8
3,533.4

497.5
504.8
519.0
532.2

2,935.1
2,978.5
2,979.9
3,001.2

2,789.4
2,825.5
2,895.8
2,918.9

IV
1986: I
II

m....
IV..

143.1
145.4
179.2
157.6
172.9
165.0
144.1
183.6
119.6
125.8
145.6
153.1
84.1
82.3

2,276.1

9,929

9,749

9,068

8,904

1.2

6.2

233,466

2,392.7

10,725

10,151

9,825

9,299

9.1

5.8

235,707

2,446.9
2,460.3
2,481.9
2,493.1

11,060
11,178
11,350
11,471

10,358
10,392
10,457
10,477

10,007
10,206
10,304
10,453

9,372
9,488
9,494
9,547

8.4
1.3
2.5
.8

6.9
6.0
6.4
6.0

236,222
236,742
237,347
237,953

2,495.7
2,550.8
2,524.7
2,540.7

11,555
11,893
11,819
11, §99

10,466
10,674
10,537
10,577

10,613
10,779
10,964
11,107

9,613
9,674
9,774
9,790

-.4
8.2
-5.0
1.5

5.2
6.5
4.2
4.4

238,469
238,985
239,605
240,206

2,581.2
2,625.8
2,605.5
2,602.3

12,193
12,348
12,324
12,382

10,723
10,886
10,776
10,737

9,857
9,985
10,125
10,088

5.6
6.2
-4.0
-1.4

5.0
5.1
2.8
2.7

240,709
241,215
241,789
242,376

1
Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net).




r

r

11,208
11,326
ll,579
11,634

r

FARM INCOME
In the third quarter of 1986, according to current estimates, gross farm income fell $23.4 billion (annual rate) and
net farm income fell $21.7 billion, as Government payments fell sharply from their second quarter level.

—-^^\

/--——-

r~~^

—

40
r
/

_^x

V

X

-*
\

20

\

;-^ "\/
i
i

^\

1

1 1
1978

1

1 1
1979

1 1 1

^

;
/

^^

X

ET FARM INCOME

N
""-._

"\ V
' \,s/"

••

\

1 1
1981

1

1 1

1

1982

40
-,
•• v

"
' \

\y •

t

l\
1 \
i \
1 \

I

\ I
i'

|
i
.

.".
'^

\
\

\'

\ ,
»

I

\

\

20
\

\ /

1980

/•

1
x

\\ ti
\\ ii
\i i1
1u1
u

10

1-

" ^'
1
T
C ROSS FARM IS COME

I

1983

10

I 1 1
1984

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

1

!

!

1985

1

1 1
1986

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Income of farm operators from farming
Net farm income

Gross farm income
Period

Cash marketing receipts
Total '
Total

Livestock and
products

Crops

1978
1979
1980.
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

128.4
150.7
149.3
166.3
163.4
152.4
174.4
166.6

112.4
131.5
139.7
141.6
142.6
136.5
142.2
142.1

59.2
69.2
68.0
69.2
70.2
69.5
72.9
69.4

53.2
62.3
71.7
72.5
72.4
67.0
69.2
72.7

1983- I
II

154.9
148.3
155.5
151.1

143.1
137.1
142.9
122.8

174.4
168.0
173.8
181.4

136.5
141.2
144.1
146.8

170.7
164.7
157.4
173.5

137.3
135.1
139.8
156.2
129.1
127.9
124.4

70.9
69.2
68.2
69.5
75.6
71.4
71.6
73.1
69.2
67.8
68.0
72.6
65.6
67.0
76.4

Ill

IV
1984- I
II
Ill

IV
1985- I
II
HI
IV
1986- I
II

in




145.6
165.1
141.7

Value of
inventory
changes 2

Production
expenses

60.9
69.8
72.5
73.8

1.7
7.0
9.0
7.5

141.6
142.2
142.0
140.9

68.1
67.4
71.8
83.6

3.0
3
-2.6
-4.5

139.0
137.1
135.2
133.2

63.5
60.9
48.0
3

103.2
123.3
133.1
139.4
140.7
139.5
141.7
136.1

72.2
67.9
74.8
53.2

1.9
5.0
-6.3
6.5
-1.3
-10.9
6.3
-1.1
-11.6
-13.5
-11.6
-6.8

-2.9
-2.8
-2.5

Current
dollars

131.2
129.4
127.7

139.3
139.0
139.3
140.2

1982 dollars 3

25.2
27.4
16.1
26.9
22.7
13.0
32.7
30.5
15.6
9.3
16.1
10.9
32.7
25.8
31.8
40.5
31.7
27.6
22.2
40.3
14.4
35.7
14.0

Income in current dollars divided by the GNP implicit price deflator (1982= 100).

NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Corporation loans and operator households.
Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce.

34.9
34.9
18.8
28.6
22.7
12.5
30.2
27.3
15.2
9.0
15.5
10.3
30.7
23.9
29.3
36.9
28.7
24.8
19.8
35.7
12.6
31.5
12.2

CORPORATE PROFITS
In the third quarter of 1986, corporate profits before tax rose $12.7 billion (annual rate) and after-tax profits rose
$7.1 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

320

320

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

280

280

/,

PROFITS BEFORE TAX

r—1\/

/
I

240

_/"

±^

200

Z

\

160

r

_---'

\
^
|

\

^ '-"""""

N

120

N

•—^

/

j — """

/

.

200

160

/

\
\
»

,'
"

/

A-

~--"'--_

~"V

K

/

-

-Nsx

\+"

! 240

^-~\ .

"~v»

PROF TS AFTER TAX

^

fs

80

/

\
\

,~~~

v

,,'

„•"*

s

^.

x

—

120

/

\

"\\.,-— -

,""'''

TAX LIABILITY

""^Vt-^

-s.---V....

V--"

X

..---\

/

\

40

80

/

\

--'*'

40

UNO STRIBUTED PR 3FITS

\

i i

\ \
1978

1 1

1979

1

I

1

]

1981

1980

1

1

1

1

1983

1982

i i

1 1 I

1984

1 .. . L ..

I

1986

1985

COUNCIL OF CONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMEN OF COMMERCE

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment

1

Profits after tax

Domestic industries
Total

2

Total

Financial
Total

1980
1981
1982

1983
1984
1985
1986 p
1982- IV
1983- IV
1984- I

n
m

IV
1985- I
II

m
rv

1986- I

II

mp
rv
1
2
3

194.0
202.3
159.2
196.7
230.2
222.6
242.9
150.7
223.4
235.7
241.5
223.3
220.3

213.3
215.4
235.3
226.4
239.0
238.3
246.5

3

Manufacturing

138.6
157.3
119.4
148.5
183.8
169.7
178.1

77.1
88.5
58.0
70.1
87.4
73.0
73.4

21.6
32.5
34.6
38.9
49.7
49.7
50.7

237.1

121.6
190.7

18.7

102.9

15.5

175.2

16.6
15.4
13.4
16.1

188.6
196.1
177.8
172.6

18.2
21.1
21.7
23.2
27.8
29.1
28.9

164.4
162.7
183.6
168.1
172.8
176.3
182.9

33.6
43.1
46.2
51.1
51.0
50.7
48.8
51.1
54.2
45.0
52.1
46.3
53.3

164.1
231.5

205.2

46.8
88.6
95.0
94.6
81.3
78.9
70.4
68.2
79.0
74.5
66.7
76.8
75.6

207.4

211.5
191.3
188.8
182.6
183.8
205.3

191.3
200.6
205.4

211.8

Tax
liability

Wholesale and
retail
trade

21.0
16.5
11.8
18.1
15.4
21.0
29.3

159.6
173.8
131.2
166.6
199.2
190.8

See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.
Includes industries not shown separately.




Profits
before tax

Nonfinancial

Period

226.5

169.6
207.6
235.7
223.2
236.6

249.3
246.5

225.1
221.9
213.8
213.8
229.2
235.8
222.5
227.7
240.4

84.8
81.1
63.1
77.2
95.4
91.8
102.8
59.8
88.1
102.9
101.6
89.3
87.8
87.8
87.1
95.8
96.4
95.7
99.0
104.4

Total

Dividends

152.3
145.4
106.5
130.4
140.3
131.4
133.8

54.7
63.6
66.9
71.5
78.3
81.6
87.8

104.3

68.5

143.4

73.9

146.4
144.8
135.8
134.1

76.0
78.1
79.0
80.1

126.0
126.7
133.4
139.4
126.9
128.8
135.9

Undistributed
profits

80.9
81.4
81.6
82.5
85.2
87.5
88.8
89 7

NOTE.—Corporate profits and related measures for the first 3 quartei
ed to reflect retroactive provisions of the Tax Reform Act of 1986.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau, of Economic Analysis.

97.6
81.8
39.6
58.9
62.0
49.8
46.0
35.8
69.5
70.4
66.7
56.8
54.0
45.1
45.3
51.8
57.0
41.7
41.2
47.2

Inventory
valuation
adjustment

-43.1
— 24.2
-10.4
-10.9
-5.5
-.6
6.3
-13.4
-8.1
-13.6
-4.9
-1.8
-1.6
-.5
1.6
6.1
-9.4
16.5
10.6
6.1
-8.0

of 1986 have been adjust-

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
According to preliminary estimates for the fourth quarter of 1986, nonresidential fixed investment fell $0.9 billion
(annual rate) from its third quarter level while residential investment outlays rose $3.3 billion. There was an $8.3
billion decrease in inventories following a decrease of $4.5 billion in the third quarter.
BILLIC3NS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DDL .ARS

800

800

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

700

700
"~~"~^_

^

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC
INVESTMENT

600

'

/
/

600
—

r^i

500

M

~^nr""—"""""

400

--^.

300

—„---"
~.
~ ——

200

100

0

-100
1978
3OURCE : DEPARTMEN

500
---

/

^--*'" \-""\

400
—

,. NONRESIDE NTIAL
FIXED INVES MENT

300
—

RESIDENTIAL
INVESTME MT

FI <ED

200

\
—

^

100
CHf i,NGE

—\
i i i
1979

IN BUSIK ESS
INVENTORIES

/X

-^

-

/N^

" * •
* * •

0

^^
1

1

1

""~Y
i i i

1981

1980

.

1982

1

1

!

1983

1

I

1

1984

OF COMMERCE

1

1

1

1985

I

I I

-100

1986

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Change in business
inventories

Fixed investment
Period

Gross
private
domestic
investment

1979
1980
1981
1982

1983
1984
1985
1986 p
1982- IV
1983- IV
1984- I
II

ni
IV

1985- I
II
TJI

rv

1986- I
TJ
Ill

rv

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




454.8
437.0
515.5
447.3
502.3
662.1
661.1
686.4
409.6
579.8
659.5
657.5
670.3
661.1
650.6
667.1
657.4
669.5
708.3
687.3
675.8
674.5

Nonresidential
Total

441.9
445.3
491.5
471.8
509.4
598.0
650.0
675.1
469.5
548.8
564.0
597.6
605.8
624.4
625.2
648.0
654.3
672.6
664.4
672.8
680.3
682.7

Total
302.8
322.8
369.2
366.7
356.9
416.5

458.2
458.5
354.9
383.9
388.2
413.3
421.8

442.9
439.8
459.2
459.8
474.0
459.2
457.5
459.0
458.1

Structures
99.5
113.9
138.5
143.3
124.0
139.3
154.8
143.6
137.6
127.4
129.7
139.1
141.4
146.7
150.7
156.1
155.0
157.2
154.6
141.5
139.5
138.6

Producers'
durable
equipment
203.3
208.9
230.7
223.4
232.8
277.3
303.4
314.9
217.3
256.5
258.4
274.1
280.4
296.2
289.1
303.1
304.7
316.8
304.6
316.0
319.5
319.5

Residential

139.1
122.5
122.3
105.1
152.5
181.4
191.8
216.6
114.7
164.9
175.8
184.4
184.0
181.5
185.4
188.8
194.5
198.6
205.3
215.3
221.3
224.6

Total

13.0
-8.3
24.0
-24.5
-7.1
64.1
11.1
11.4
-59.9

31.0
95.5
59.9
64.4
36.7
25.4
19.1
3.1
-3.1
43.8
14.5
-4.5
-8.3

Nonfarm

7.9
-2.4
18.3
-23.1
.4
56.6
12.2
11.8
-51.1
21.3
71.5
56.8
62.1
35.9
18.5
10.4
3.2
16.7
41.2
10.5
-10.3
5.7

EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
According to the Commerce Department October-November 1986 survey, business spending for new plant and
equipment for the year 1986 is expected to be 1.7 percent below the 1985 level, while spending in 1987 is
expected to be 0.9 percent above the 1986 level.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

600

iOO
40
0

400

r—^

300

1

-—

,

^ ^ ~

H1
Al

-—

—

^
1

300

J
I INDUSTRIES

—

,-^~

200

..--

;;;:

_-

rr'"

"
"

NOWMNUFACTURi

go^7

200

"x

-'-

—

,'*• .__.

_--100

AANUFACTURI

100

—- '
"

— 80

80

—
—
60

60

—
40

40

1

1 1
1979

1

1 1
1980

1

1

1 1
1981

1 1
1982

I

I I I

1 I 1

1984

1 1
1983

1985

\

1

2J .£/ J/
1
1 1

_!/ SURVEYED QUARTERLY
_2_/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE:

1

1987

1986

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Addenda

Industries surveyed quarterly
Nonmanufacturing

Manufacturing

All
industries

Total

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986 *
1987 4

217.76
254.96
282.80
315.22
310.58
304.78
354.44
387.13
380.69
384.24

78.58
95.92
112.33
126.54
120.68
116.20
138.82
153.48
144.77
141.95

1985' I
11
III
IV

373.56
387.86
389.23
397.88

1986- I
II
Ill 4
1987' I 44

Period

rv ..

n




Nonmanufacturing

Nondurable
goods

Total 1

Mining

Transportation

Public
utilities

Commercial
and
other

39.46
48.50
55.36
59.81
55.35
53.08
66.24
73.27
69.96
69.50

39.13
47.42
56.96
66.73
65.33
63.12
72.58
80.21
74.81
72.44

139.18
159.04
170.47
188.68
189.89
188.58
215.61
233.65
235.91
242.30

11.22
12.81
15.99
21.39
20.05
15.19
16.86
15.88
11.24
10.11

13.36
16.05
16.60
15.84
14.79
13.97
16.52
18.02
18.64
18.86

31.50
35.63
37.74
41.21
45.43
44.96
47.48
48.81
46.53
44.42

83.09
94.56
100.14
110.24
109.63
114.45
134.75
150.94
159.50
168.91

146.94
154.25
154.47
158.26

70.29
74.34
72.99
75.47

76.64
79.91
81.48
82.79

226.62
233.61
234.76
239.61

15.81
16.56
15.89
15.25

16.70
17.45
18.81
19.15

48.44
48.61
48.44
49.79

145.68
150.99
151.62
155.42

146.94
154.25
154.47
158.26

377.94
375.92
374.55
394.34

144.03
141.68
139.21
154.17

68.01
68.33
69.31
74.17

76.02
73.35
69.89
80.00

233.90
234.24
235.34
240.17

12.99
11.23
10.15
10.62

18.22
18.28
19.03
19.02

47.03
46.55
45.90
46.63

155.67
158.18
160.25
163.91

144.03
141.68
139.21
154.17

233.90
234.24
235 34
240.17

386.82
393.39

141.22
145.23

67.86
72.37

73.36
72.85

245.60
248.16

10.36
10.58

19.85
18.46

46.32
46.90

169.08
172.22

141.22
145.23

Surveyed
annually 3

226.62
233.61
23476
239.61

245.60
248 16

Durable
goods

1
Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services;
social services and membership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May
1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nonmanufacturing surveyed annually") for data for these industries.
2
"All industries" plus the part of nonmanufacturing that is surveyed annually.

10

Total
nonfarm
business 2
245.34
284.94
314.47
349.26
347.47
343.35
398.99
431.94

Manufacturing

78.58
95.92
112.33
126.54
120.68
116.20
138.82
153.48
144.77
141.95

Total

166.76
189.02
202.15
222.72
226.79
227.15
260.16
278.46

Surveyed
quarterly
139.18
159.04
170.47
188.68
189.89
188.58
215.61
233.65
235.91
242.30

27.58
29.98
31.68
34.04
36.89
38.56
44.55
44.81

3
Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical sen-ices; professional services;
social services and membership organizations; and real estate.
4
Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in October-November 1986, corrected for
biases.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE
In December, seasonally adjusted civilian employment rose 205,000 and unemployment fell 294,000.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

120

1986

1978
*16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADViSERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA]

Period

Noninstitutional
population
including
resident
Armed
Forces

Civilian employment
Resident
Armed
Forces
NSA

T

H r f

including
resident
Armed
Forces

Employment
including
resident
Armed
Forces

Nonagricultural
Chilian
labor force

Total

Agricultural

Total

NSA

1979
1980
1981
1982

...

1983
1984
1985
1986*
1985: Dec r...
1986: Jan* r ..
Feb r...
Mar "...
Apr T ...
May r...
June r..
July'..
Aug '...
Sept '..

Oct \...

Nov r...
Dec

166,460
169,349
171,775
173,939
175,891
178,080
179,912
182,293
180,810
181,361
181,512
181,678
181,843
181,998
182,183
182,354
182,525
182,713
182,935
183,114
183,297

1,597
1,604
1,645
1,668
1,676
1,697
1,706
1,706
1,698
1,691
1,691
1,693
1,695
1,687
1,680
1,672
1,697
1,716
1,749
1,751
1,750

106,559
108,544
110,315
111,872
113,226
115,241
117,167
119,540
118,031
118,485
118,733
118,880
118,987
119,274
119,685
119,789
119,821
119,988
120,163
120,426
120,336

100,421
100,907
102,042
101,194
102,510
106,702
108,856
111,303
109,847
110,583
110,248
110,500
110,664
110,852
111,293
111,559
111,764
111,703
111,941
112,183
112,387

104,962
106,940
108,670
1 10,204
111,550
113,544
115,461
117,834
116,333
116,794
117,042
117,187
117,292
117,587
118,005
118,117
118,124
118,272
118,414
118,675
118,586

1
Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc.
2
Labor force as percent of noninstitutional population (both including resident Armed Forces).
3
Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population.




Unemployment

98,824
99,303
100,397
99,526
100,834
105,005
107,150
109,597
108,149
108,892
108,557
108,807
108,969
109,165
109,613
109,887
110,067
109,987
110,192
110,432
110,637

3,347
3,364
3,368
3,401
3,383
3,321
3,179
3,163
3,151
3,280
3,105
3,252
3,199
3,151
3,164
3,124
3,057
3,142
3,162
3,215
3,161

95,477
95,938
97,030
96,125
97,450
101,685
103,971
106,434
104,998
105,612
105,452
105,555
105,770
106,014
106,449
106,763
107,010
106,845
107,030
107,217
107,476

Part-time
for
economic
reasons :

3,373
4,064
4,499
5,852
5,997
5,512
5,334
5,345
5,292
5,297
5,214
5,295
5,567
5,569
5,322
5,222
5,269
5,303
5,450
5,319
5,342

Total

6,137
7,637
8,273
10,678
10,717
8,539

8,312
8,237
8,184
7,902
8,485
8,380
8,323
8,422
8,392
8,230
8,057
8,285
8,222
8,243
7,949

15
weeks
and
over

1,241
1,871
2,285
3,485
4,210
2,737
2,305
2,232
2,209

2,117
2,332
2,243
2,130
2,232
2,299
2,250
2,272
2,373
2,168
2,217
2,171

Labor force
participation
rate (percent)
Total 2

Civilian 3

64.0
64.1
64.2
64.3
64.4
64.7

63.7
63.8
63.9
64.0
64.0
64.4
64.8
65.3
64.9
65.0
65.1
65.1
65.1
65.2
65.4
65.4
65.3
65.3
65.4
65.4
65.3

65.1
65.6
65.3
65.3
65.4
65.4
65.4
65.5
65.7
65.7
65.6
65.7
65.7
65.8
65.7

* Data beginning January 1986 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of change in
estimation procedures.
Note.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1982.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

11

SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
In December, the seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage point to 6.6 percent; the
civilian unemployment rate also fell 0.2 percentage point, to 6.7 percent.
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

25

25
V '. <-(
\N
\

A'"
20
..A

20

v,

\

v

UL
BLACK

v— • \v

7

•v fN
v
'

/
/

TEENAGERS
(16-19)
\

-v-v xA/ v

A

'""x-v,

15

15

-\.

BLACK
AND OTHER
10

10

ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS

VVOME N 20 Y EARS
AND OVE R

<^L/

f

x=^_
\

'WHITE"

AAEN20YEAR s
AND OVER

Illllllllll
1982

1984

1983

1985

1982

1986

Illllllllll Illllllllll llinllllll
1984
1983
1985

Illllllllll
1986

'UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CiVIUAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group)

Period

Unemployment
rate,
all
workers '

By sex and age

By selected groups

By race

Ail

Experienced
wage and
salary
workers

Married
men,
spouse
present

civilian
workers

Men
20 years
and over

Women
20 years
and
over

4.2
5.9
6.3
8.8
8.9
6.6
6.2
6.1

5.7
6.4
6.8
8.3
8.1
6.8
6.6
6.2

16.1
17.8
19.6
23.2
22.4
18.9
18.6
18.3

5.1
6.3
6.7
8.6
8.4
6.5
6.2
6.0

11.3
13.1
14.2
17.3
17.8
14.4
13.7
13.1

12.3
14.3
15.6
18.9
19.5
15.9
15.1
14.5

55

9.5
9.5
7.4
7.1
6.9

5.8
7.1
7.6
9.7
9.6
7.5
7.2
7.0

6.9
7.3
9.3
9.2
7.1
6.8
6.6

2.8
4.2
4.3
6.5
6.5
4.6
4.3
4.4

5.8
7.0

1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986

75

Both
sexes
16-19
years

White

Black
and
other

Black

Women
who
maintain
families

Labor
force
time lost
(percent) 2

Fulltime
workers

Parttime
workers

8.8
8.8
9.4

6.3
7.9
8.5

10.5
10.4

11.0
10.9

9.8

5.3
6.9
7.3
9.6
9.5
7.2
6.8
6.6

9.3
9.3
9.1

8.6
8.1
7.9

8.3
9.2
10.4
11.7
12.2
10.3
10.4

1985:

Dec r ...

6.9

7.0

6.0

6.4

19.0

6.0

13.5

15.0

6.6

4.3

9.6

6.7

9.1

7.9

1986:

Jan r....
Feb r....

6.7
7.1
7.0
7.0
7.1
7.0
6.9
6.7
6.9
6.8
6.8
6.6

6.8
7.2
7.2
7.1
7.2
7.1
7.0
6.8
7.0
6.9
6.9
6.7

5.8
6.2
6.2
6.0
6.2
6.2
6.2
5.9
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.0

6.1
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.4
6.3
6.2
6.1
6.2
6.1
6.1
5.9

18.2
18.9
18.4
19.3
18.8
18.9
17.9
18.0
18.5
17.7
18.2
17.3

5.8
6.3
6.2
6.1
6.2
6.1
6.0
5.8
6.0
6.0
6.0
5.8

13.1
13.3
13.4
13.5
13.5
13.5
12.7
13.1
13.1
12.7
12.7
12.3

14.6
14.9
14.8
14.8
14.8
14.9
14.2
14.6
14.6
14.3
14.2
13.7

6.3
6.8
6.7
6.7
6.8
6.6
6.6
6.5
6.5
6.6
6.5
6.3

4.3
4.5
4.5
4.2
4.4
4.5
4.4
4.2
4.3
4.6
4.5
4.3

9.9
9.9

6.5
6.9
6.8
6.7
6.9
6.7
6.6
6.4
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.3

8.7
9.3
9.1
9.4
9.1
9.1
9.2
9.3
9.3
9.2
9.1
8.8

7.7
8.1
8.1
8.1
8.2
8.1
7.8
7.7
7.9
7.8
7.7
7.6

Mar r....

Apr r....
May r...

June ''..
July r...

Aug '...
Sept r...
Oct r....
Nov r...
Dec

Note.—Seasonally adjusted data r
Source: Department of Labor, Bu:

12



10.1

9.5
10.1
10.0

9.5
10.1

9.8
8.9
9.7
9.8

SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE PROGRAMS
In December, the percentage of unemployed persons who 'iad been out of work for less than 5 weeks, for 15-26
weeks, and for 27 weeks and over rose while the percentage out of work for 5-14 weeks fell. The mean duration
of unemployment and the median rose.
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*

70

REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT

—

50
JOB LOSERS

40

40

30

REENTRANTS

30

—

20

20

NEW ENTRANTS

10

—

\
JOB LEAVERS

1982

1986

1983

1986

1984

'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVfSERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Duration of unemployment

Period

Unemployment
(thousands)

5-14
weeks

15-26
weeks

State
programs

Number of
weeks

Percent distribution
Less
than
5
weeks

Reason for unemployment:
percent distribution

27
weeks
and
over

Average
(mean)

Median

Job
losers

Job
leavers

Reentrants

New
entrants

Insured
unemployment

Initial
claims

Insured
unemployment,
'all
regular
programs
(unadjusted) 1

Weekly average, thousands
7,637
8,273
10,678
10,717
8,539
8,312
8,237

43.1
41.7
36.4
33.3
39.2
42.1
41.9

32.3
30.7
31.0
27.4
28.7
30.2
31.0

13.8
13.6
16.0
15.4
12.9
12.3
12.7

10.7
14.0
16.6
23.9
19.1
15.4
14.4

11.9
13.7
15.6
20.0
18.2
15.6
15.0

6.5
6.9
8.7
10.1
7.9
6.8
6.9

51.7
51.6
58.7
58.4
51.8
49.8
48.9

11.7
11.2
7.9
7.7
9.6
10.6
12.3

25.2
25.4
22.3
22.5
25.6
27.1
26.2

11.4
11.9
11.1
11.3
13.0
12.5
12.5

3,350
3,047
4,061
3,396
2,476
r
2,611

488
460
583
438
377
r
396

3,837
3,410
4,594
3,775
2,561
2,692

1985- Dec r

8,184

42.0

30.8

12.4

14.8

15.2

6.8

48.8

11.0

27.5

12.7

2,588

386

2,884

1986- Jan '
Feb r
Mar '

7,902
8,485
8,380
8,323
8,422
8,392
8,230
8,057
8,285
8,222
8,243
7,949

42.2
41.7
42.1
42.7
42.4
40.8
41.6
42.3
41.1
41.9
41.2
42.4

31.3
30.8
31.2
31.8
31.4
31.7
30.9
29.7
30.4
31.5
31.8
30.2

12.5
13.5
12.8
11.8
12.5
12.4
12.9
13.2
13.4
11.7
12.7
12.9

13.9
14.0
13.9
13.8
13.7
15.1
14.6
14.8
15.2
14.9
14.3
14.5

15.0
15.2
14.6
14.7
14.8
15.2
15.1
15.6
15.5
15.2
14.8
15.0

6.8
6.9
6.8
6.6
6.8
"2
-.1
".1
".1
".0
7.0
7.1

48.2
49.0
50.1
48.4
49.9
50.6
49.1
47.6
48.9
48.7
48.1
48.9

12.4
11.6
11.8
12.8
11.6
12.0
12.4
12.3
12.6
12.6
12.9
13.0

26.4
26.7
26.1
26.2
26.1
25.0
26.6
27.4
25.9
26.8
25.8
25.4

13.0
12.7
12.0
12.6
12.4
12.4
11.9
12.6
12.6
11.9
13.1
12.8

2,583
2,592
2,630
2,598
2,655
2,678
2,699
2,713
2,707
2,621
2,565
2,515

382
388
392
379
380
378
379
388
370
357
355
357

3,370
3,295
3,144
2,799
2,556
2,474
2,632
2,483
2,335
2,296
2,478
2,841

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986

.

.

May r
July '

Sept r
Oct '
Nov r
Dec




Note.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1982.
Souree: I)epartment of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Trail ng Administralion).

13

NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 269,000 in December.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)
24

MILLIONS OF PERSONS
100

90

ALL NONAGRICULTURAL
ESTABLISHMENTS
80

70

SERVICE-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES
60

50

40 —

GOODS-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES

30

20 ML
1982

1983

1985

1984

1982

1986

1986

"SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
"SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of wage and salary workers;

l

seasonally adjusted]
Service-producing industries

Goods-producing industries
Period

Total
nonagrieultural
employment

Manufacturing
Total 2

C nn
onstruction

Total

Durable
goods
12,187

90,406
91,156
89,566
90,200
94,496
97,614
100,168

25,658
25,497

4,346
4,188

23,813
23,334
24,727
24,930
24,940

3,905
3,948
4,383
4,687
4,961

20,285
20,170
18,781
18,434
19,378
19,314
19,187

1985: Dec.... 98,910

24,977

4,787

19,289

99,296
99,429
99,484
99,783
99,918
99,843
100,105
100,283
100,560
100,826
101,065
101,334

25,101
25,038
24,945
25,038
24,965
24,854
24,869
24,888
24,858
24,865
24,895
24,932

4,901
4,864
4,838
4,972
4,974
4,947
4,980
5,012
5,010
5,001
4,993
5,004

19,303
19,294
19,255
19,245
19,201
19,135
19,121
19,123
19,105
19,118
19,159
19,190

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

1985
1986

p

1986: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May....
June ..
July....
Aug....
Sept...
Oct r..
Novr.
Dec "..

Nondurable
goods

Total

Transportation
and
public
utilities

Wholesale
trade

Retail
trade

Services

5,160
5,298
5,341
5,468
5,689
5,953
6,304

17,890
18,619
19,036
19,694
20,797
21,974
23,073

16,241
16,031
15,837

15,869
16,024
16,415
16,738

2,739
2,774
2,807
2,875
2,899

Federal

7,873
7,798
7,841

65,753
66,866
69,769
72,684
75,228

5,278
5,268
5,555
5,740
5,853

15,035
15,189
15,179
15,613
16,545
17,360
17,976

11,461

7,828

73,933

5,277

5,809

17,622

6,095

22,501

16,629

2,913

11,466
11,455
11,418
11,415
11,378
11,307
11,294
11,302
11,271
11,266
11,283
11,298

7,837
7,839
7,837
7,830
7,823
7,828
7,827
7,821
7,834
7,852
7,876
7,892

74,195
74,391
74,539
74,745
74,953
74,989
75,236
75,395
75,702
75,961
76,170
76,402

5,286
5,277
5,280
5,266
5,265
5,167
5,288
5,255
5,316
5,316
5,348
5,358

5,830
5,843
5,841
5,864
5,872
5,829
5,849
5,863
5,859
5,864
5,864
5,855

17,734
17,795
17,828
17,851
17,911
17,944
17,992
18,030
18,065
18,143
18,186
18,187

6,123
6,157
6,184
6,228
6,261
6,295
6,334
6,364
6,388
6,409
6,431
6,466

22,585
22,638
22,707
22,825
22,924
23,072
23,176
23,255
23,300
23,359
23,444
23,586

16,637
16,681
16,699
16,711
16,720
16,682
16,597
16,628
16,774
16,870
16,897
16,950

2,918
2,918
2,923
2,914
2,899
2,875
2,866
2,875
2,901
2,896
2,899
2,901

8,098
8,061
7,741
7,702

64,748
65,659

5,275
5,358

2,866
2,772

bad weather, etc., even if thev are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample
of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this tahie

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistic;




Total

5,146
5,165
5,082
4,954
5,159
5,242
5,285

12,109
11,039
10,732
11,505
11,516
11,346

1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who
worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month.
Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces.
Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the

14

Government

Finance,
insurance,
and real
estate

AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Average weekly
hours

1985:

Total

.

...

..
Dec

1986' Jan
Feb.
Mar
May
July
Sept...
Oct
Nov r
Dec p

35.7
35.3
35.2
34.8
35.0
35.2
34.9
34.8

Adjusted hourly earnings index — total private
nonagricultural 2
Percent change 4from a year
earlier 5

Ind ex,

Manufacturing

1977
1977
dollars 3

Current
dollars

Current
dollars

116.8
127.3
138.9
148.5
155.4
160.3
165.2
169.2

97.4
93.5
92.6
93.4
94.9
94.6
94.1
94.9

3.6

40.8
40.7
40.7
40.7
40.7
40.6
40.6
40.8
40.8
40.7
40.8
40.9

7.25
7.68
8.02
8.32
8.57
8.76

$6.70
7.27
7.99
8.49
8.83
9.19
9.53
9.73

8.70

9.68

167.7

3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.6

40.9

35.0
34.9
34.9
34.8
34.8
34.7
34.7
34.8
34.7
34.7
34.8
34.6

Total
private
nonagrieultural '

Overtime

40.2
39.7
39.8
38.9
40.1
40.7
40.5
40.7

34.9

1979
1980
1981
1982

1983
1984
1985
1986 p.

Manufacturing

Total
private
nonagricultural l

Period

Average gross hourlv
earnings

8.68
8.71
8.73
8.72
8.73
8.74
8.73
8.77
r
8.76
8.80
8.85
8.84

9.65
9.68
9.70
9.68
9.72
9.71
9.73
9.76
9.74
9.77
9.77
9.80

167.3
168.2
168.5
168.4
168.7
169.2
168.9
169.3
169.6
170.0
170.9
170.8

3.3
2.8
2.8
2.3
3.0
3.4
3.3
3.5

$6.16
6.66

1977 dollars

7.9
9.0
9.1
6.9
4.6
3.2
3.1
2.4

-3.1
-4.0
-1.0
.9
1.6

94.0

3.1

-.5

93.5
94.4
95.1
95.4
95.4
95.2
95.1
95.1
95.0
95.1
95.4
95.1

2.8
2.8
2.9
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.3
1.9
2.3
2.4
1.8

-.9
2
'.9
1.4
1.4
1.0
1.2
1.1
.6
1.1
1.5
1.1

0

-.5
.9

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Percent change from
a year earlier,
total private nonagricultural5

Average gross weekly earnings
Period

Current dollars

1979
1980
1981....
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986 p

Manufacturing

Total private
nonagricultural l

Construction

Retail trade
Current dollars

1977 dollars 3

1977 dollars

Current dollars

$219.91
235.10
255.20
267.26
280.70
292.86
299.09
304.85

$183.41
172.74
170.13
168.09
171.26
172.78
170.42
171.07

$269.34
288.62
318.00
330.26
354.08
374.03
385.97
396.01

$342.99
367.78
399.26
426.82
442.97
458.51
464.09
465.75

$138.62
147.38
158.03
163.85
171.05
174.33
174.64
175.78

8.0
6.9
8.5
4.7
5.0
4.3
2.1
1.9

-3.1
-5.8
-1.5
-1.2
1.9
.9
-1.4
.4

1985- Dec

303.63

170.20

395.91

461.28

175.78

2.5

— 1.1

1986' Jan
Feb
Mar

303.80
303.98
304.68
303.46
303.80
303.28
302.93
305.20
' 303.97
305.36
307.98
305.86

169.72
170.58
171.94
171.93
171.83
170.67
170.57
171.46
r
170.29
170.78
171.86
170.30

393.72
393.98
394.79
393.98
395.60
394.23
395.04
398.21
397.39
397.64
398.62
400.82

470.40
448.59
450.06
465.22
464.25
461.15
463.76
467.37
468.61
469.88
471.85
472.36

175.51
175.51
176.09
174.91
174.91
174.60
175.20
176.08
176.66
176.06
176.95
173.95

3.1
2.5
2.4
2.1
1.9
1.1
1.7
1.8
1.0
1.4
2.0
.7

-.6
-.5
.4
.9
.7

May
July
Sept
Oct r
Nov T
Dec p

4
5

.5
.6
-.3
.2
1.1
.1

Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places.
Based on seasonally unadjusted data.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

15
68-373 0 - 8 7 - 2



PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR
Output per hour of
al] persons
Period
Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
seetor

Output '
Business
sector

Hours of all
persons 2 ••

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Compens a ion per
hm r 3
Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Real compensation
per lour 4
Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Unit labor eosts

Implic t price
defla or 5

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

1977—100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted

1978
1979

100.8
99.6

100.8
99.3

105.8
107.9

106.0
107.9

104.9
108.3

105.1
108.7

108.5
119.1

108.6
118.9

100.8
99.4

100.9
99.2

107.6
119.5

107.7
119.7

107.3
117.0

107.0
116.5

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

99.3
100.7
100.3
103.0
105.3

98.8
99.8
99.2
102.4
104.3

106.7
108.9
105.5
109.9
118.8

106.7
108.5
104.9
110.1
118.8

107.5
108.2
105.2
106.7
112.8

108.0
108.7
105.7
107.5
114.0

131.5
143.7
154.9
161.5
168.1

131.3
143.6
154.8
161.5
167.9

96.7
95.7
97.3
98.2
98.1

96.6
95.7
97.2
98.2
98.0

132.5
142.7
154.5
156.8
159.7

132.9
144.0
156.0
157.7
161.0

127.6
139.8
148.1
153.0
158.5

127.8
140.3
149.2
154.3
159.3

1985
1986"

106.4
107.1

104.8
105.5

122.7
125.8

122.5
125.8

115.3
117.5

116.9
119.3

175.3
180.9

174.6
179.9

98.8
100.0

98.4
99.4

164.8
168.9

166.7
170.5

163.0
166.4

164.6
168.2

1982:

IV

101.0

99.7

105.0

104.2

103.9

104.5

158.3

158.2

97.9

97.8

156.8

158.7

150.2

151.4

1983:

IV

103.8

103.3

113.6

114.1

109.4

110.5

163.6

163.4

98.0

97.9

157.7

158.2

155.2

156.2

1984:

I
II
III
IV

104.9
105.6
105.5
105.5

103.9
104.6
104.4
104.3

116.9
119.0
119.5
120.2

116.9
119.1
119.5
120.2

111.4
112.7
113.3
114.0

112.5
113.8
114.5
115.2

165.9
167.1
169.0
170.6

165.6
166.9
168.7
170.4

98.1
97.9
98.1
98.2

97.9
97.8
98.0
98.1

158.2
158.3
160.2
161.7

159.4
159.5
161.5
163.3

156.7
157.7
159.0
160.3

157.2
158.4
160.0
161.4

1985- I
II
Ill
IV

105.7
106.4
107.3
106.4

104.4
104.9
105.4
104.5

121.3
122.3
123.5
123.8

121.1
122.1
123.3
123.6

114.8
115.0
115.2.
116.4

116.0
116.4
116.9
118.2

172.3
174.5
176.4
178.0

172.1
174.0
175.4
177.0

98.4
98,7
99.1
99.0

98.2
98.4
98.5
98.4

163.1
164.0
164.4
167.3

164.8
165.9
166.3
169.3

161.4
162.6
163.4
164.6

162.7
164.1
165.2
166.2

1986:

107.3
107.4
107.3
106.7

105.6
105.7
105.7
105.2

125.3
125.4
126.0
126.7

125.1
125.3
126.1
126.9

116.8
116.7
117.4
118.7

118.5
118.5
119.4
120.6

179.1
180.4
181.7
182.8

178.3
179.3
180.4
181.7

99.2
100.3
100.4
100.3

98.8
99.8
99.7
99.8

167.0
168.0
169.3
171.3

168.8
169.6
170.7
172.7

165.3
165.8
167.2
167.1

167.1
167.5
169.0
169.0

I
II
III r....
IV....

Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates

1978
1979

0.8
-1.2

0.8
-1.6

5.8
2.0

6.0
1.9

4.9
3.2

5.1
3.5

8.5
9.7

8.6
9.5

0.8
-1.4

0.9
-1.6

7.6
11.1

7.7
11.2

7.3
9.0

7.0
8.9

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

— .3
1.4
2.7
2.3

-.4
1.0
-.6
3.3
1.8

— 1.1
2.1
-3.1
4.2
8.1

-1.2
1.7
-3.3
4.9
8.0

-.8
.7
-2.8
1.5
5.7

— .7
.7
-2.7
1.6
6.0

10.5
9.2
7.8
4.2
4.1

10.5
9.4
7.8
4.3
4.0

-2.7
-1.0
1.6
1.0
— .1

— 2.7
-.9
1.5
1.1
-.3

10.9
7.7
8.3
1.5
1.8

11.0
8.3
8.4
1.1
2.1

9.0
9.6
5.9
3.3
3.5

9.7
9.7
6.3
3.5
3.2

1.0
.7

.5
.7

3.3
2.5

3.0
2.8

2.2
1.9

2.6
2.0

4.3
3.2

4.0
3.0

.7
1.3

.4
1.1

3.2
2.5

3.5
2.3

2.9
2.1

3.3
2.2

3.0

2.4

-.5

— 1.2

4.5

5.1

2.9

3.4

1.5

2.6

2.4

3.0

9.8

7.3

8.4

5.3

4.4

1.1

.1

2.4

3.0

4.8

3.1

1985
1986
1982:

..... 4.

p

IV

-3.4

-3.5

IV

2.8

1.3

10.4

1984- I
II
Ill
IV

4.4
2.6
^
-.1

2.4
2.9
— .7
— .4

12.2
7.5
1.7
2.5

10.2
7.7
1.6
2.2

7.4
4.8
2.1
2.6

7.6
4.7
2.3
2.6

5.7
2.8
4.6
3.8

5.4
3.2
4.3
4.2

.5
-.8
.8
.1

.3
— .4
.4
.5

1.2
.2
5.0
3.9

3.0
.3
5.1
4.6

4.0
2.6
3.4
3.2

2.7
3.1
4.0
3.7

1985- I
11
Ill
IV

9
2.7
3.4
-3.2

.3
1.8
2.2
-3.5

3.6
3.3
4.1
1.0

3.2
3.0
4.0
1.0

2.6
.6
.7
4.3

2.9
1.2
1.8
4.6

4.2
5.1
4.4
3.8

3.9
4.6
3.2
3.7

1.0
1.0
1.8
-.5

.7
.5
.7
-.6

3.3
2.4
1.0
7.2

3.6
2.7
1.0
7.4

2.7
3.0
1.9
3.0

3.2
3.4
2.6
2.4

1986:

3.3
.5
-.4
-2.3

4.3
.5

4.7
.3
2.0
2.1

5.1
.6
2.6
2.4

1.4
2
2.4
4.5

.8
.1
2.9
4.2

2.5
2.8
2.9
2.4

3.1
2.3
2.3
3.1

1.0
4.5
.3
— .4

1.6
4.0
2
.2

— .7
2.3
3.3
4.9

-1.2
1.8
2.6
4.9

1.8
1.2
3.4
-.2

2.3
1.0
3.6
.0

1983:

I
II
Ill r....
IV....

1

9

-1.7

Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1982 dollars.
Hours of a]l persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family
workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data.
3
Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private
benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed.
2

16



4

Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
5
Current dollar gross domestic product divided bv constant dollar gross domestic product.
NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector.
Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; thev therefore may
differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Industrial production rose 0.5 percent in December, following a rise of 0.6 percent in November. The index for
December was 0.9 percent above its year-earlier level.
INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE)
220
FINAL PRODUCTS
200

INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE)
140
_ TOTAL NDUSTRIA L PRODUCTION
p,

"

120

-^

,_.-

180

^_

uti-CNSE AND
SPACE

—

S"

-r""*

160

100

/""""""

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 in

1 1 [ 111 1M 11

Mini. Ml,

11 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1

V-1

140

EQUIPMENT

_^_

.-"*•

140

—

MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION
DURABLE
^^«<[

r \
NONDURAB

120

—
100

"X/^

^C^_

^^
-

1-

120

100

E

x_

^

f

„,.-*

-~'\ ~"
CONSUMER
GOODS

,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,!,,,,, ,,,,,!,,,,,

I II III 1 II II

s

^
jii 1 1 ILL 1 1 1 1 1 1 II 1 1 1 1 f 1

~s

^~~

PEF
1 1 1 1 1 1 II 1 1!

1 1 111 11 11 11

1 1M 1 11111 I

90 _ MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE_

140

_

UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION

120

,A

-\

A^*<T3£,

M

100

^f

^r["MINING

M, n i l , MI l i i n l i i i n i i M i | i i i n
1982

1983

1984

iinii
1985

_
80

UIILMItb

70

^

m.^i"

60

1982

1986

^
1 1 M 1 1 II 1 1 1
1984

1 I M 1 1I 1 1 11 | 1 1 M 1 I 1 1 1 I

1983

"SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

1 1 1 I 1 1 1 M I t 1 1 M 1f 1 \ 1 M

1985

1986

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period
Index,
1977 = 100

1979
1980
1981
1982

1983
1984
1985
1986P
1985- Dec
1986- Jan
Feb
Mar
May

Julv
Sept r
Oct r
Nov r
Dcc p




..

100.0
110.7
108.6
111.0
103.1
109.2
121.4
123.8
125.1
125.6
126.2
125.3
123.6
124.7
124.2
124.2
124.9
125.1
124.9
125.3
126.0
126.6

Capacity utilization
rate, percent 1

Industry production indexes, 1977=100

To al
indus trial
produ ction

Manufacturing

Percent
change
from year
earlier

3.9
-1.9
2.2
-7.1
5.9
11.2
2.0
1.1
2.3
2.9
1.7
.2
1.2
.5
.5
1.2
.5
.5
1.4
1.0
.9

Mining
Total

84.21
111.5
108.2
110.5
102.2
110.2
123.4
126.4
129.2
128.2
129.4
128.7
127.2
128.7
128.2
128.3
129.2
129.5
129.5
129.9
130.5
131.4

Durable

49.10
113.9
109.1
111.1
99.9
107.7
124.2
127.3
128.0
128.7
129.5
128.7
126.8
128.1
127.0
126.2
127.4
127.5
128.1
128.2
128.7
129.6

Utilities

Nondurable

35.11
108.2
107.0
109.7
105.5
113.7
122.3
125.1
130.9
127.5
129.3
128.7
127.7
129.6
129.9
131.2
131.7
132.2
131.4
132.3
133.1
133.8

9.83
106.4
112.4
117.5
109.3
102.9
111.1
108.8
99.6
107.4
108.1
105.1
103.0
101.0
99.8
98.9
97.1
96.4
96.2
95.9
96.6
97.0

5.96
105.9
107.3
107.1
104.8
105.2
110.7
111.9
109.7
114.8
112.5
109.7
109.3
109.4
108.5
108.6
109.7
108.3
108.3
109.5
110.9
110.6

Manufacturing

84.6
79.3
78.3
70.3
74.0
80.5
80.1
79.8
80.2
80.8
80.2
79.1
79.9
79.4
79.3
79.7
79.7
79.6
79.7
79.9
80.3

Industrial
materials

87.1
81.1
81.1
71.7
75.3
82.0
80.2
78.5
80.3
80.1
79.6
78.5
78.7
78.1
78.0
78.3
77.9
78.1
77.9
78.5
78.6

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

17

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND
SELECTED MANUFACTURES
[1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Materials

Products
Final products

Intermediate products

Consumer goods

Equipment

Period
Total
Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable goods

Total '

Business

Defense
and
space
equipment

Total

Construction
supplies

Business
supplies

Total

Energy

1977 proportion
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986 p

44.77
111.0
112.2
115.2
109.5
114.7
127.3
131.1
132.4

25.52
103.9
102.7
104.1
101.4
109.3
118.0
120.2
124.5

6.89
99.9
88.4
89.7
82.9
98.5
112.2
112.9
116.0

18.63
105.4
108.1
109.3
108.3
113.3
120.1
122.9
127.6

19.25
120:4
124.7
129.9
120.2
121.7
139.6
145.4
142.9

14.34
124.7
125.1
127.6
113.6
115.4
134.2
139.6
138.8

3.67
105.6
115.4
119.8
133.0
143.1
156.4
170.6
180.2

12.94
110.8
106.9
107.3
101.7
111.2
124.7
130.0
136.3

5.95
108.7
100.6
98.6
88.3
100.6
114.0
118.3
124.6

6.99
112.7
112.3
114.7
113.1
120.3
133.8
140.0

42,28
110.3
105.3
107.7
96.7
102.8
114.2
114.2
113.9

11.69
104.1
105.5
104.7
101.2
98.4
103.9
103.4
100.0

1985- Dec

133.2

123.3

115.3

126.3

146.4

140.0

178.5

132.0

119.8

142.4

115.4

104.5

123.8
123.3
121.8
124.5
124.3
124.4
125.2
125.1
124.2
124.9
125.8
126.9

116.0
116.6
112.4
115.9
113.8
114.3
116.3
115.7
117.4
116.6
117.4
119.4

178.7
176.3
176.2
178.0
178.0
178.4
179.5
181.0
182.0
183.6
184.5
186.2

134.2
133.4
133.3
134.5
135.1
137.0
137.3
137.8
137.0
138.4
138.5
139.2

124.0
122.6
122.6
123.6
123.5
124.1
124.0
125.4
125.9
126.0
126.3
126.7

142.9
142.6
142.5
143.8
145.0
147.9
148.6
148.4
146.4
148.9
149.0

115.5
114.8
113.3
113.8
113.0
113.1
113.6
113.2
113.5
113.4
114.5
114.7

103.0
102.1
101.4
100.4
100.5
100.8
99.9
97.9
98.0
97.4
98.7
99.1

1986- Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr

May
June
July. . .
Aug
Sept r
Oct r
Nov r
Dec p. .
1

133.9
132.8
130.6
132.1
131.6
131.1
132.0
132.6
132.2
132.7
133.4
134.2

126.6
125.8
125.3
127.7
128.1
128.1
128.4
128.6
126.7
127.9
128.9
129.7

147.5
145.4
142.3
142.3
141.2
140.0
141.0
142.5
142.8
143.1
143.5
143.9

141.5
140.5
137.7
138.6
137.9
136.6
137.9
139.3
139.3
139.2
139.2
139.3

Includes rigs and prefabs, not shown separately.

[1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Nondurable manufactures

Durable manufactures
Transportation
equipment

Primary metals
Period
Total

1977 proportion
1979
1980
. ..
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986 p

Iron and
steel

Fabricated
metal
products

Nonelectrical
machinery

Electrical
machinery

Total

Motor
vehicles
and
parts

Lumber
and
products

Apparel
products

Printing
and
publishing

cals
and
products

Foods

5.33
108.5
90.4
95.0
65.8
73.0
82.3
80.5
760

3.49
108.0
86.3
92.5
57.5
66.1
73.4
70.4

6.46
109.4
101.8
101.6
86.6
89.1
102.6
107.3
107.4

9.54
122.6
123.3
129.8
115.6
118.3
141.8
145.3
142.3

7.15
125.7
130.3
134.1
128.4
143.8
170.5
168.4
166.5

9.13
108.3
96.9
95.1
87.6
99.2
112.2
121.4
125.9

5.25
95.9
71.1
71.6
66.8
85.8
104.4
111.5
110.9

2.30
102.0
92.9
90.1
82.8
100.2
109.1
113.4

2. 79
98.3
97.3
96.1
87.3
95.3
102.7
100.9

4.54
112.7
115.1
118.6
120.2
129.8
146.5
153.9
163.5

8.05
111.4
106.4
112.6
103.8
114.0
121.6
127.1

7.96
106.7
111.4
113.7
114.9
120.4
126.9
130.2

1985- Dec

81.7

71.6

108.2

146.2

168.7

124.0

111.4

116.1

104.5

157.6

128.1

132.1

1986- Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr

82.4
80.3
76.3
78.1
74.8
71.4
73.6
73.4
74.1
74.2
76.8
75 9

72.2
69.5
64.3
65.6
60.2
58.3
61,7
60.8
61.1
62.2
64.6

109.2
108.5
107.6
108.2
106.5
106.6
105.7
105.9
107.3
108.0
107.5
108.1

144.9
143.9
141.7
140.8
141.3
140.4
142.6
142.6
140.9
142.9
142.6
142.9

166.1
164.8
165.2
166.8
166.0
163.2
166.8
167.2
166.9
167.8
167.9
169.7

128.2
127.5
122.6
126.2
124.1
125.1
125.6
125.1
127.7
125.2
125.7
127.8

116.5
116.4
108.1
112.6
108.7
110.6
111.2
108.2
112.2
107.1
107.8
111.5

120.5
120.3
120.7
121.3
121.6
120.9
120.8
122.5
125.0
124.8

105.5
102.8
102.8
103.1
102.6
101.7
102.5
102.5
102.7
104.1
105.7

160.9
156.7
157.8
161.6
161.9
164.0
165.4
164.6
163.0
168.0
167.8
1686

131.7
132.0
130.2
132.8
131.5
134.2
134.1
134.4
133.9
134.2
134.2

132.0
132.9
132.2
133.1
133.7
134.6
134.3
135.1
134.3
133.5
134.5

June
July
Aue....
Sept r
Oct '
Nov r
Dec p

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstem

18




NEW CONSTRUCTION
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Construction contracts 3

Private
Total new
construction
expenditures

Period

Residential
Commercial
Total

and

New housing
units

Total '

industrial z

Other

Federal,
State, and
local

Total value
index
(1977=100)

Commercial
and industrial
floor space
(millions of
square feet)

Billions of dollars

1983
1984
1985
1986 "

250.3
249.0
257.8
244.4
279.2
327.2
355.6
376.9

201.5
194.0
204.4
193.6
228.5
272.0
292.8
305.7

117.2
101.1
100.0
85.4
126.6
155.1
158.8
174.6

1985- Dec

365.6

300.6

161.8

1986:

373.4
373.9
368.0
373.9
374.5
375.4
380.7
382.6
382.6
384.3
377.9
376.0

305.4
305.7
298.9
303.3
302.6
304.6
309.0
310.2
308.6
310.7
307.3
302.6

163.4
164.7
165.6
170.5
172.5
174.5
178.8
178.8
178.5
181.9
180.9
179.0

1979
1980
1981
1982

42.3
46.2
49.4
49.5
48.1
48.2
51.3
51.3

118.7

88.2

50.6

64.9

162

951

122.8
124.7
126.5
129.4
132.4
135.2
136.6
137.8
138.5
139.7
139.9
139.0

88.4
87.5
81.4
81.8
78.7
78.3
79.3
81.1
79.3
77.5
76.1
73.0

53.5
53.5
51.8
51.0
51.3
51.8
50.9
50.3
50.9
51.3
50.3
50.6

68.0
68.3
69.2
70.6
71.9
70.8
71.7
72.4
74.0
73.6
70.6
73.5

154
174
163
186
171
169
171
168
158
170
171
175

848
941
840
1,011
921
911
877
949
970
861
1,025
940

48.8
55.0
53.3
50.8
50.7
55.2
62.8
71.2

121.0
108.0
112.0
111.0
138.0
150.0
161.0
173.0

Annual rates

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
June
July r

Aug r
Sept

T

Oct T
Nov"
Dec"

1,059
904
919
690
756
955
' 1,097
996

42.0
46.7
55.0
58.7
53.8
68.6
82.7
79.9

90.1
70.4
70.2
57.7
95.7
115.1
116.0
134.0

1
Includes the following categories of private construction not shown separately: residential improvements, railroads, electric light and power, gas, petroleum pipelines, and farm nonresidential.
2
Includes hotels and motels.

Annual rates

3
F. W. Dodge series.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Burcai of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Svstei
Company, F. W. Dodge Division.

NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES
[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]
New private homes

New private housing units
Period

Units started, hy type of structure
Total
1,745.1
1,292.2
1,084.2
1,062.2
1,703.0
1,749.5
1,741.8
1,806.6

1979
1980
1981
1982

1983
1984
1985
1986"

1 unit
1,194.1
852.2
705.4
662.6
1,067.6
1,084.2
1,072.4
1,179.4

2-4 units

122.0
109.5
91.1
80.0
113.5
121.4
93.4
83.7

5 or more units
429.0
330.5
287.7
319.6
522.0
544.0
576.1
543.6

Units
authorized
1,551.8
1,190.6
985.5
1,000.5
1,605.2
1,681.8
1,733.3
1,761.5

Units
completed

Homes sold

1,870.8
1,501.6
1,265.7
1,005.5
1,390.3
1,652.2
1,703.3

709
545
436
412
623
639
688
749

Homes for
sale at end of
period '
3

398
336
272
251
300
356
349
362

Vacancy rate
for rental
housing units
(percent) 2

5.4
5.4
5.0
5.3
5.7
5.9
6.5

Seasonally adjusted annual rates

1985:

Nov
Dec

1,654
1,882

1,006
1,098

76
83

572
701

1,668
1,839

1,721
1,762

722
729

353
349

1986:

Jan
Feb
Mar

2,034
2,001
1,960
2,019
1,853
1,852
1,782
1,795
1,664
1,628
1,585
1,802

1,335
1,202
1,221
1,242
1,241
1,230
1,137
1,186
1,102
1,085
1,087
1,209

107
115
84
79
83
80
81
89
59
82
67
100

592
684
655
698
529
542
564
520
503
461
431
493

1,861
1,808
1,834
1,885
1,788
1,792
1,759
1,673
1,603
1,565
1,613
1,910

1,778
1,725
1,806
1,693
1,829
1,620
1,761
1,763
r
1,743
1,733
1,749

735
741
924
880
787
722
698
618
r
745
678
685
772

352
352
338
336
336
340
349
r
352
r
355
357
354
362

May
June
July
Sept
Oct r

Nov r
Dec"

1
Seasonally adjusted.
2
Quarterly" data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable
with earlier data.
3
New series beginning March 1979.




6.7

6.9

7.3

7.5

7.7

NOTE.—Beginning 1984, units authorized are for 17,000 p Tmit-issuing places and for 1978-83
data are for 16,000 places.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

19

BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade
Manufacturing and trade sales rose 0.1 percent in November and inventories fell $1.1 billion. According to
advance data, retail sales rose 4.4 percent in December after falling 0.6 percent in November.
BULK5NS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
^UU
190 —
180
170 —
160
150

650
600

—

550
500

'

•

^

^—-S\
MANLJFACTURING AND
TRADE INVENTORIES

450

— ~~\
1
\
M;^NUFACTURI NG
AN(D TRADE SA LES

350 r--—-..-. -'-'

/**'

120
110

-

^f _

—

90

y..'^-'

RETAIL SAl ES

_X

—

i g 1 1 1 1 ii i\ i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
RATIC>*
70

200

1.80

150

1.40

RETAIL

\,_ .

^*"°%—— ~

-

1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1
1983

1982

IMMI 1 1 1 11 11 1 1 1 1 p p 1 11 1 1 1 1
1985

1984

1.00

r*

X— ^_
MANUFACTURING
AND TRADE

1.20
1 1 111 1I 1 1I1

! 1 i 1t 11 1 1 1I

_ INVENTORY-SALES RATIO

1.60

100

—

80

-

250 -

,-,—
-''--''

-'"T"

100
300

—

s^VE AIL INVENTC3RIES

130

f

,^~—c.
_^

XT""
\

140

-**-,—' ""
400

—

1 111 11 111 11 1 1 11 11 11 1 11 1 1 11 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 11 1 1 11 1
1984
1983
1986
1985

1 t 1 11i 11 t 1t

1982

1986

SEASONALLY ADJ STED

c OURCE: DEPARTM NT OF COMMERC

Manufacturing and
trade *

COUNCIL OF ECO NOMIC ADVISERS

Wholesale
Sales 2

Period
Sales 2

Inventories 3

Inventory-sales ratio 4

Retail

Sales

2

Inventories 3

Total

Durable
goods
stores

Inventories 3

Nondurable goods
stores

Total

Durable
goods
stores

Nondurable goods
stores

Manufacturing
and
trade '

Retail

Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
260,805
298,334
328,058
356,919
344,656
368,724
410,737
424,091

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982

1983 . .
1984
1985
1985: Nov r
Dec
1986- Jan
Feb
Apr
May
July
Aug
Sept
Oct r
Nov"
Dec p

r

399,608
451,460
494,105
528,105
509,555
520,328
575,098
583,148

66,669
79,472
93,704
102,013
96,290
100,424
113,404
114,494

431,012
432,679

582,707
583,148

115,527
116,852

134,927
135,940

431,713
426,854
420,230
428,455
421,613
425,475
427,473
429,310
442,206
435,848
436,131

584,968
585,176
588,178
588,599
586,727
588,908
591,895
590,141
588,069
591,556
590,434

115,648
113,380
112,495
114,608
109,870
112,873
114,375
114,482
117,594
117,991
117,972

136,624
136,561
137,056
137,083
137,506
138,793
139,753
139,742
139,878
139,211
138,837

* See page 21 for manufacturing.
Monthly average for year and total for month.
Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted.

2

3

20



r

115,354
116,743

117,349
117,200
116,684
117,715
118,675
118,960
119,804
121,523
128,331
121,655
T
120,937
126,255

43,863
49,397
55,049
59,688
61,279
64,817
68,939
71,645

102,694
111,098
116,346
127,201
126,497
139,381
157,845
165,324

50,136
54,108
55,117
60,327
58,952
66,928
77,142
82,875

52,558
56,990
61,229
66,874
67,545
72,453
80,703
82,449

1.44
1.43
1.45
1.44
1.51
1.38
1.34
1.37

72,794
73,104

165,787
165,324

83,238
82,875

82,549
82,449

1.35
1.35

73,162
73,251
73,405
72,841
73,121
73,364
73,492
73,611
73,714
73,976
r
74,231
74,808

167,987
169,379
171,551
172,158
170,869
171,705
173,529
172,926
171,617
176,338
175,181

84,755
85,863
88,132
88,263
87,198
88,281
90,271
89,380
86,578
90,134
89,432

83,232
83,516
83,419
83,895
83,671
83,424
83,258
83,546
85,039
86,204
85,749

1.35
1.37
1.40
1.37
1.39
1.38
1.38
1.37
1.33
1.36
1.35

23,368
25,529
24,914
27,089
28,059
33,041
38,817
42,851

67,231
74,926
79,963
86,777
89,339
97,858
107,755
114,495

86,405
99,262
113,478
118,259
118,149
120,265
131,544
135,940

r

42,560
43,639

44,187
43,949
43,279
44,874
45,554
45,596
46,312
47,912
54,617
47,679
T
46,706
51,447

r

1.43
1.44
1.42
1.41
1.41
1.34
1.39
1.40
r

1.44
1.42
1.43
1.45
1.47
1.46
1.44
1.44
1.45
1.42
1.34
1.45
1.45

MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
In December, manufacturers' shipments and new orders rose, while inventories and unfilled orders fell.
BILLIC)NS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLICDNS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

240

SHIPMENTS

200

360
320

_

^s

160

280

TOTAL

-

INVEN TORIF^"—

-

120

—

r^

—.

240

—

-

TOTAL

200

•'

..-.a""4"'

80

£

.„.

-

~~"N—

NO

—-

160

""•

-~

-"X
\

—

DU RABLE GOO 3S

•^DURABLE G OODS

120

60
--V —

80
40

1 11111! 1111

1 1 1 11 11 1 1 M

1 M

1 1 1 1 1 1 11

1 1 M 1111 1 M

NO ^DURABLE C OODS

1 1 1 I1 11 1 M 1

60
BILLIC3NS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

240
NEW OT'P''^

200

^

^-p-T~

160

.

^v

40
n 1 1 iln 1 1 1 1 1 11 il ii , , ,

II

ii ii il , 1 1 ii

1 1 1 III 1 M

1

RATI 3*

-

2.2

120

INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO

JRABLE GOC

2.0

80

'^-~-^-

1.8

^

^H
NON DURABLE G DODS

'- ---x^'

,

h\

1.6

60
^
-^

N

1.4

40

1.2
1983

1982
SEASONALLY ADJU

sOURCE: DEPARTME

1984

1985

H 1 1 1 1 II

1986

1t 1

1 1 1 1 1111 1

1982

It

^ 1
- -^-X

1 1 1 1 1 1 E1 1 11

1983

1 I I I 1 i t I 1 11

1984

1985

imil
1986

STED
NT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECC

Manufacturers' shipments

1

Manufacturers' inventories 2

Manufacturers' new orders

l

Durable goods

Period
Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable goods

Durable
goods

Total

Nondurable goods

Total
Total

Capital
goods
industries,

NOMIC ADVISERS

Nondurable goods

Manufacturers'
unfilled
orders 3

non-

Manufacturers'
inventory —
shipments
ratio 4

defense

Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
1979
1980
1981

1982
1983
1984
1985
1986 "
1985- Dec
1986- Jan
Feb
Mar
May
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov"
Dec p
1
2
3

67,953
76,801
84,199
82,260
85,627
91,024
91,499
89,943

302,145
323,393
319,094
296,918
330,924
355,640
363,809
365,437

107,531

30,566

93,682

363,809

1.42

108,194
107,545
104,682
103,747
102,624
102,730
106,220
103,845
108,723
103,569
r
108,826
109,838

24,288
28,637
26,540
26,179
26,145
26,421
27,387
26,325
28,222
26,912
r
28,442
30,116

92,939
91,014
88,314
89,404
89,498
89,065
88,340
88,991
90,676
88,933
90,628
92,075

366,226
368,511
370,456
367,475
366,529
364,682
365,948
365,479
368,597
364,897
367,129
365,437

1.41
1.42
1.46
1.42
1.44
1.44
1.44
1.44
1.41
1.41
1.40
1.35

76,060
77,550
83,872
76,693
84,951
98,502
103,649
105,745

67,876
76,841
84,257
82,334
85,491
91,076
91,452
89,891

241,100
264,281
282,645
264,909
260,682
285,709
281,884
275,846

160,533
174,620
186,347
175,103
171,629
191,109
189,164
183,822

80,567
89,661
96,298
89,806
89,053
94,600
92,720
92,024

147,403
156,161
167,752
157,255
173,259
191,634
195,803
195,777

79,451
79,360
83,553
74,996
87,631
100,611
104,305
105,833

199,084

105,777

93,307

281,884

189,164

92,720

201,213

188,518
187,644
188,333
188,031
187,637
187,148
186,858
186,045
186,102
185,358
185,496
183,822

91,839
91,592
91,238
91,327
90,715
91,262
91,755
91,428
90,472
90,649
90,920
92,024

201,133
198,559
192,996
193,151
192,122
191,795
194,560
192,836
199,399
192,502
199,454
201,913

198,716
196,274
191,051
196,132
193,068
193,642
193,294
193,305
196,281
196,202
197,222
203,605

105,631
105,545
102,693
106,592
103,672
104,553
104,980
104,154
106,027
107,443
r
106,669
111,631

93,085
90,729
88,358
89,540
89,396
89,089
88,314
89,151
90,254
88,759
90,553
91,974

280,357
279,236
279,571
279,358
278,352
278,410
278,613
277,473
276,574
276,007
276,416
275,846

Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sates.
Book value, end of period.
End of period.




23,231
23,259
24,050
20,681
22,764
27,017
27,215
27,179

143,936
154,391
168,129
159,027
170,441
189,578
195,102
195,635

1.57
1.66
1.64
1.73
1.52
1.45
1.46
1.42

4
For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for
monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month.

Souree: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

21

PRICES
PRODUCER PRICES
In December, the producer price index for all finished goods was unchanged, seasonally adjusted. The index for
finished consumer foods fell 0.4 percent while the index for other finished consumer goods rose 0.2 percent. The
index for capital equipment was unchanged.
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SC
:ALEJ

INDE,<, 1967 =100 (RATIO SCALE)
340

340

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

FINISHED GOODS
320

320

COr-JSUMER GOOD S
pyr LUDING FOOD5

300

TOTAL FINISHED
GOODS
r—-

.

\

—^s~?l

pC2-^"/^

.„
*~*"~

' ^*aP
'

_-

-~
300

V^:
280

280

^^

'//\

260

DNSUMER FO( •vrjc;

260

,»*-'

/&

240

"CAPITAL EQ JIPMENT
240

W

220

t
i

200

r^A

rf

200

\-t>\ i i 1 1 1 i 1 1

1 11 111 11 1 11

1978

180

220

1979

M 1 1 I t 1 1 1 11

1 1 1 !!

1980

111 1 11

i it ii 1 11 ii i

M 1 1 1 1 1 I t 11

1983

1982

1981

M i l l I l| III

1 1 i \ \ 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 t 1 1 1 I I l l 180
1986

1985

1984

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE; DEPARTMEN F OF LABOR

[1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Intermediate materials

Finished goods
Finished goods excluding consumer foods
Period

Total
finished
goods

Consumer
foods

Total
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

1984
1985
1986 "
1985: Dec
1986- Jan
Feb
May
J u ly

Aug T
Sept

Oct
Dec
1




Durable

Capital
equipment

Crude materials

Total

Foods
and
feeds '

Other

Total

Foodstuffs
and
feedstuffs

Other

217.7
247.0
269.8
280.7
285.2
291.1
293.7
289.6

226.2
239.5
253.6
259.3
261.8
273.3
271.2
278.0

213.3
247.8
273.3
285.8
290.8
294.8
299.0
291.1

211.5
250.8
276.5
287.8
291.4
294.1
297.3
283.4

183.2
206.2
218.6
226.7
233.1
236.8
241.5
246.9

231.3
283.9
319.6
333.6
335.3
337.3
339.3
311.1

216.5
239.8
264.3
279.4
287.2
294.0
300.5
306.5

217.9
248.9
271.3
281.0
284.6
290.3
291.8
284.9

242.2
280.3
306.0
310.4
312.3
320.0
318.7
307.6

226.1
252.6
250.3
239.4
247.9
253.1
232.8
230.2

244.4
282.3
310.1
315.7
317.1
325.0
325.0
313.3

274.3
304.6
329.0
319.5
323.6
330.8
306.1
280.0

247.9
259.2
257.4
247.8
252.2
259.5
235.0
230.6

330.0
401.0
482.3
473.9
477.4
484.5
459.2
386.8

298.3

276.5

303.3

301.9

243.6

346.0

303.8

296.7

319.9

233.9

326.2

307.0

239.7

452.4

296.1
291.3
288.5
287.0
288.5
288.8
287.0
288.0
289.3
290.3
290.9
290.9

274.9
270.3
270.7
271.1
274.7
274.6
279.6
284.0
283.1
285.7
285.4
284.4

300.9
296.1
292.2
290.0
290.7
291.2
286.9
286.7
288.8
289.2
290.0
290.5

298.8
291.8
286.0
282.5
283.4
283.8
277.5
277.2
279.8
279.7
280.4
281.0

242.3
242.9
243.7
245.9
245.5
246.1
246.4
246.3
248.2
251.6
252.2
252.1

341.3
328.7
317.9
310.1
312.1
312.3
301.1
300.7
303.6
301.0
301.8
302.9

303.3
303.7
304.3
305.3
305.4
306.0
306.3
306.5
307.7
309.2
310.1
310.1

294.1
287.8
284.1
281.9
283.7
283.9
281.5
282.8
284.1
285.0
285.4
285.4

318.4
313.8
310.1
307.1
306.2
306.1
304.2
304.2
305.8
304.9
305.4
305.9

232.8
229.5
229.0
227.1
228.6
228.4
228.9
231.6
232.8
231.0
231.8
232.7

324.7
320.0
316.1
312.9
311.9
311.8
309.8
309.6
311.2
310.4
310.9
311.3

302.9
286.6
280.2
270.7
276.4
275.0
276.0
276.7
277.3
281.8
281.9
277.3

233.8
225.4
223.3
216.3
225.8
224.2
231.6
238.2
234.7
240.8
240.4
235.6

451.8
418.7
403.1
388.4
386.0
385.2
371.8
359.2
369.3
370.0
370.9
367.0

Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds.

22

Nondurable

Consumer goods
Total

Total
finished
consumer
goods

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
In December, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted (0.1 percent
not seasonally adjusted). The index was 1.1 percent above its year-earlier level.
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)

INDEX. 1967 =100 (RATIO SCALE)

340

340

320

320

300

300

280

280
ALL ITEMS

260

260

240

240

220

220

200

200

i M i ill m;

180

1979

1978

180
1980

1983

1982

1981

1985

1984

SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1986

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1967—100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]
Transportation

Housing
Shelter
Period

All
items l

Food
Total '

Renters'
Total
1982 = 100)

Homeowners'
costs (Dec.
1982=100)

NSA

Rel. imp.3
1979
1980
1981
1982 .
1983
1984
1985
1986
1985: Dec
1986: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec




100.0
217.4
246.8
272.4
289.1
298.4
311.1
322.2
328.4
327.4
328.4
327.5
326.0
325.3
326.3
327.9
328.0
328.6
330.2
330.5
330.8
331.1

Maintenance
and
repairs

Fuel
and
other
utilities

Apparupkeep

Total

J

New
cars

Motor
fuel

3.4
166.0
179.3
190.2
197.6
202.6
208.5
215.2
224.4
218.4
218.6
219.5
219.9
221.2
223.0
224.4
225.2
225.8
226.3
228.0
230.0
231.3

5.5
265.6
369.1
410.9
389.4
376.4
370.7
373.8
292.1
379.4
380.1
357.2
314.8
279.5
286.4
295.0
275.5
262.7
269.2
262.9
261.4
263.2

Medical
care

Ener-

gy 2

All items
less
food,
energy,
and
shelter

NSA

18.5
234.5
254.6
274.6
285.7
291.7
302.9
309.8
319.7
315.2
315.9
313.8
314.1
315.0
316.4
316.7
319.5
322.5
323.9
325.0
326.7
327.2

37.9
227.6
263.3
293.5
314.7
323.1
336.5
349.9
360.2
356.2
357.1
356.8
357.5
358.5
358.2
360.1
360.2
361.1
361.9
361.8
361.6
362.6

22.3
239.7
281.7
314.7
337.0
344.8
361.7
382.0
402.9
391.9
393.3
394.8
397.3
400.7
401.0
401.8
403.6
404.8
406.7
408.3
409.2
410.1

7.3

103.0
108.6
115.4
121.9
118.5
118.8
119.2
119.8
121.1
121.2
121.7
122.5
122.7
123.2
123.6
124.1
124.4

14.4

102.5
107.3
113.1
119.4
116.2
116.6
117.0
118.0
118.9
119.1
119.1
119.6
119.9
120.6
121.1
121.2
121.5

0.5
256.4
285.7
314.4
334.1
346.3
359.2
368.9
373.8
373.7
379.1
379.6
367.5
367.6
367.1
366.6
369.2
376.4
376.2
379.0
377.1
380.0

8.1
239.3
278.6
319.2
350.8
370.3
387.3
393.6
384.7
396.5
397.2
392.4
388.4
385.7
382.3
388.9
383.4
383.6
381.8
377.1
374.3
374.2

5.0
166.6
178.4
186.9
191.8
196.5
200.2
206.0
207.8
208.3
207.7
206.6
206.3
206.9
206.5
205.8
206.2
207.7
209.4
209.9
210.3
210.3

21.4
212.0
249.7
280.0
291.5
298.4
311.7
319.9
307.5
323.9
325.5
320.9
311.8
304.0
304.9
307.4
303.6
300.8
302.0
302.3
303.8
304.6

6.5
239.7
265.9
294.5
328.7
357.3
379.5
403.1
433.5
415.7
417.5
420.4
424.5
427.2
429.8
432.8
435.0
437.4
440.1
442.6
444.4
447.7

11.3
275.9
361.1
410.0
416.1
419.3
423.6
426.5
370.3
430.3
430.8
414.3
387.5
365.2
366.2
374.8
359.6
352.7
355.0
347.3
344.9
346.1

48.0
191.5
208.3
228.1
245.6
258.4
271.2
281.6
291.2
286.2
287.5
288.0
288.6
289.1
289.4
290.4
291.3
292.1
292.7
293.9
294.9
295.8

NOTE.—Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs
and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

23

CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS
Change from preceding period

I'eriod

Change from :5 months earlier, amu al rate

Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate

Consumer goods

Consumer goods

Consumer goods

Total
finished
goods

Capital
equipment

Excluding foods

Foods

Total
finished
goods

Capital
equipment

Excluding
foods

Foods

Total
finished
goods

Capital
equipment

Excluding
foods

Foods

Change
from
year
earlier,
total
finished
goods
NSA

Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA

1979

12.8
11.8
7.1
3.7
.6
1.7
1.8
— 25

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986"

.

17.5
14.2
8.5
4.2
-.8
.8
2.0
-6.9

7.4
7.5
1.4
2.1
2.3
3.5
.5
2.9

8.8
11.4
9.2
3.9
1.9
1.8
2.7
21

11.1
13.5
9.2
4.0
1.6
2.1
.9
-1.4

Change, month to month

1985: Dec
1986:

1.0

-1.6
-1.0
— .5
.5
.1
-.6
.3
.5
.3
2
0

May
July

Aug r

Septr

Oct

Nov '
Dec

0.6

0.1

9.2

16.0

7.8

5.6

3.2

6.1

2.4

2.3

1.8

-.6
— 1.7
.1
.1
1.3
-.0
1.8
1.6

0.6

Jan
Feb
Mar

-1.0
-2.3
-2.0
-1.2
.3
.1
22
j
.9
-.0
.3
2

2
.1
2
.3
.0
.2
.1
.1
.4
.5
.3
0

2.3
-6.7
-12.5
-11.7
-3.8
.4
0
— .7
.7
4.7
4.1
2.2

6.2
-4.9
-8.1
-5.4
6.7
5.9
13.1
14.2
13.0
9.0
2.0
1.8

1.1
-10.5
-19.5
-20.1
-11.0
-3.0
-6.9
-8.5
-5.5
3.2
4.7
1.7

.8
.4
.7
2.7
2.3
2.3
1.3
1.4
22
3.8
4.8
3.2

1.2
— 1.4
— 2.2
-5.0
-5.3
-6.3
-6.1
-2.3
.6
2.3
1.7
1.5

3.0
1.0
3.3
2
.7
-1.4
3.4
10.4
9.4
11.1
7.9
7.3

.3
-3.8
-6.8
-10.1
-10.8
-11.6
-13.7
-9.8
-4.3
-2.0
-2.1
-2.0

1.7
1.6
3.1
1.7
1.3
1.5
2.0
1.9
2.2
2.6
3.1
2.7

1.3
-.2
-1.4
-2.0
-1.8
-1.6
-2.4
-1.8
-.9
-1.4
-1.9
-2.5

0

.9
-.4

Source: Department of Labor, Bui

CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]
Housing

Transportation

Shelter
Period

All
items 1

Food
Total '
Total '

Renters'
eosts

Homeowners'
costs

Fuel
and
other
utilities

Appare!
and
upkeep

Total '

New
cars

Motor
fuel

Medical
care

All
items
less
food,
energy,
and
shelter

Energy2

Addendum: All iterns, percent change
(annua rate)
From
previous
quarter 3

From
3
earlier

From
6
months
earlier

From
year
earlier
NSA

Change, December to December, NSA

13.3
12.4
8.9
39
3.8
4.0
3.8
1.1

1979
1980

1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986

10.2
10.2
4.3
31
2.6
3.8
2.7
3.8

15.2
13.7
10.2
36
3.5
4.2
4.3
1.8

17.4
15.1
9.9
24
4.7
5.2
6.0
4.6

5.1
5.9
6.3
5.0

4.5
5.1
5.9
4.6

16.0
13.6
14.0
9.7
1.8
4.2
1.9
-5.7

5.5
6.8
3.6
1.6
2.9
2.0
2.9
.9

18.2
14.7
11.0
1.7
3.9
3.1
2.6
-5.9

7.4
52.2
18.9
7.5
9.4
6.8
1.6 -6.5
3.4 -1.7
2.4 — 2.4
3.0
3.5
5.8 -30.6

10.1
10.0
12.5
11.0
6.4
6.1
6.7
7.7

37.4
18.1
11.9
1.3
— .5
2
1.8
-19.7

7.2
9.9
9.4
6.1
5.0
4.4
3.7
3.4

0.5

0.7

0.4

0.3

.2
.1
.4 -6.0
.2 -11.9
.6 -11.2
2.5
.8
3.0
.6
.4 -6.6
.3 -4.6
2.5
.2
.8 -2.3
-.6
.9
.7
.6

.4
.7
1.0
.6
.6
.7
.0
.6
.6
.6
.4
.7

.1
-3.8
-6.5
-5.8
.3
2.3
-4.1
-1.9
.7
-2.2
— .7
.3

11.3
13.5
10.4
6.1
3.2
4.3
3.6
1.9

Change, month to month

1985:

Dec

1986:

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Ang
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

0.4

0.6

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.3

.3

2
— .7
.1
.3
.4
.1
.9
.9
.4
.3
.5
.2

.3
-.1
9
.3
-.1
.5
.0
2
2
-.0
-.1
.3

.4
.4
.6
.9
.1

.3
.3
.0

.3
.3
.9
.8
2
0
.4
.3
.6
.4
.1
2

.2
j2
-1.0
— .7
-.9
1.7
-1.4
.1
— .5
-1.2
-.7
-.0

A

-.4
-.3
2
.5
.0
.2
.3
2
.3
.2

0

.4
.3
.5
.4
o
'.2

1.1
.1
.4
.7
2
.4
.3
.4
.2

-0.0

0.4

-.3
-.5
-.1
.3
—. 2

-.3
9
.7
.8
.2

9
0

.5
— 1.4
-2.8
— 2.5
.3
.8
-1.2
-.9
.4
.1
.5
.3

0.3

Source: Department of Labor, Bui

24




.2
2
.2
.1
.3
.3
.3
2
.4
.3
.3

4.3

1.5

-1.7

of Labor Statistics.

2.6
2.8

5.3

3.8

3.8

5.1
1.2
-1.9
-4.3
-2.1
1.5
2.7
2.7
2.2
2.7
3.1
2.7

4.1
2.9
1.6
.3
-.4
-.2
-.8
.3
1.8
2.7
2.9
2.5

3.9
3.2
2.3
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.8
1.5
1.3
1.1

PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received by farmers in January fell 1.7 percent from their December level. Prices paid by farmers in January
rose 0.6 percent from their October level.
INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE)

INDEX, 1977 =100 (RATIO SCALE)

180

180

PRICES PAID

160

160

140

140

120

120

PRICES RECEIVED "

100

100

80

80

inn! mil

60
RATIO-!'
140

linn iniiliiiii

I II I I I I II I II I I

I l l l l l l l l l l 60
RATION

60

60
1979
J/RATiO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAIDSOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1977 = 100]

Prices paid by farmers

Prices received by farmers
Period

1979
1980
1981
1982r
1983r
1984r
1985r

1986
1986- Jan r
Feb r
Mar r
Mav r
July r
Aug r
Sept/
Oct r
Nov r
Dec
1987- Jan




All farm
products

Livestock and
products

Crops

132
134
139
133
135
142
128
123
124
122
122
121
123
122
125
125
122
121
124
121
119

116
125
134
121
128
138
120
106
113
110
111
114
115
110
106
101
97
97
103
99
99

147
144
143
145
141
146
136
138
135
133
132
127
131
133
143
149
146
145
145
141
139

All commodities,
services,
interest, taxes,
and wage rates l

Production
items, interest,
taxes, and wage
rates

123
138
151
159
161
165
163
159
161
161
(3)
159
(3)
(3)
159
(3)
(3)
158
(3)
(3)
159

125
139
151
159
159
162
157
151
153
153
(3)
151
(3)
(3)
151
(3)
(3)
149
(3)
(3)
149

Production
items

125
138
148
153
152
155
151
146
149
148
(3)
145
(3)
(3)
144
(3)
(3)
142
(3)
(3)
143

Ratio 2

107
97
92
84
84
86
79
77
77
76
76
76
77
77
79
79
77
77
78
77
75

Source: Department of Agriculture.

25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES
In December, growth accelerated in Ml and the broader aggregates.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
3,600

3,600

3,200

3,200

2,300

-M3-

2,800

2,400

2,400

2,000

2,000
_M2

1,600

1,600

1,200

1,200

800

800

700

700

600

600

500

500

400

400

300

1978

1982

1980

1984

• AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1985

1986

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

[Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]

Ml

1979'
19801981'
19821983'
19841985'

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec.. .
Dec

1986' Jan
Feb
Mar
Mav
Julv
Sept T
Oct '
Nov r
Dec "

. .

MS

Sum of currency,
demand deposits,
travelers' checks,
and other
checkable
deposits (OCDs)

Period

M2
Ml plus overnight
RPs and
Eurodollars,
MMMF balances
(general purpose
and broker/dealer),
MMDAs, and
savings and small
time deposits

M2 plus large
time deposits,
term RPs, term
Eurodollars, and
institution-only
MMMF balances

388.7
414.2
441.1
479.9
527.1
558.5
626.6
730.4
627.2
631.0
638.4
646.1
658.7
666.8
676.0
687.6
693.2
701.2
713.5
730.4

1,497.5
1,630.3
1,792.8
1,952.6
2,186.0
2,373.8
2,566.5
2,804.5
2,569.9
2,577.7
2,592.4
2,622.2
2,649.7
2,670.8
2,699.2
2,724.3
2,740.8
2,765.2
2,781.4
2,804.5

1
Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local govei
ments, and private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts.
2
Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months ™
cr at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.

26




1,803.2
1,987.4
2,233.6
2,443.5
2,697.3
2,986.5
3,201.2
3,488.1
3,224.5
3,241.5
'3,262.6
3,293.7
3,315.4
3,339.0
3,375.1
3,400.7
3,425.6
3,444.5
3,461.4
3,488.1

L

M3 plus
other liquid
assets

Debt

Debt of
domestic
nonfinancial
sectors
(monthly
average) 1

2,114.8
2,323.3
2,593.7
2,850.1
3,163.5
3,532.3
3,839.5

3,556.1
3,898.9
4,279.2
4,661.7
5,210.1
5,949.8
6,778.6

3,862.2
3,881.2
'3,895.1
r
3,918.6
r
3,951.0
' 3,973.5
r
4,003.5
T
4,03 1.1
4,059.4
4,082.3
4,112.2

6,878.5
6,923.3
6,968.5
,029.1
' ,101.3
' ,172.2
' ,238.1
r
,314.8
,387.2
7,444.4
7,519.3

Percent change from year or 6
months earlier 2

Ml

7.1
6.6
6.5
8.8
9.8
6.0
12.2
16.6
10.7
8.9
9.0
10.7
12.8
13.2
16.2
18.7
17.9
17.8
17.3
20.0

NOTE.—See p. 27 for components.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

M2

7.8
8.9
10.0
8.9
12.0
8.6
8.1
9.3
6.0
5.0
5.0
6.7
7.9
8.3
10.3
11.7
11.8
11.2
10.2
10.3

M3

9.5
10.2
12.4
9.4
10.4
10.7
7.2
9.0
7.3
7.2
7.2
r
8.2
8.6
8.8
9.6
10.1
10.2
9.4
9.0
9.1

Debt

12.1
9.6
9.8
8.9
11.8
14.2
13.9
16.0
15.2
14.7
14.6
14.0
r
!2.0
10.7
r
!1.6
12.4
12.2
12.1

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, exeept as noted hv XSA]

Other
Demand
deposits

Currencv

Period

checkable
deposits
(OCDs)

Overnight
repurchase
agreements
(RPs),
net, plus
overnight
Eurodollars

NSA

1979: Dec
1980: Dec
1981: Dec
1982: Dec
1983: Dec
1984: Dec
1985: Dec
1986: Dec "..
1986:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aue
&
Sept r
Oct r
Nov r
Dec p

106.4
116.7
124.1
134.3
148.3
158.5
170.6
183.5

261.1
265.3
234.6
237.9
242.7
248.4
271.5

171.9
172.9
173.9
174.4
175.8
176.7
177.5
179.0
179.7
181.2
182.2
183.5

1

Money market
mutual fund
balances
General
purpose
and
broker/
dealer

NSA

Institution
only

NSA

33.4
61.6

Money
market
deposit
accounts
(MMDAs)

0.0
.0
.0

185.2
138.2
167.5
176.5
207.2

43.2
379.2
417.0
512.0
570.6

177.7
181.0
186.2
191.4
193.2
197.3
199.7
200.5
202.2
206.9
207.0
207.2

67.3
67.7
70.2
74.1
76.1
75.0
77.5
80.8
84.4
84.5
84.4
84.1

515.7
516.3
520.5
525.2
530.8
540.4
546.1
553.1
558.3
563.8
568.1
570.6

21.2
28.3
35.9

150.6

307.9

103.4
131.3
146.3
178.6
232.7

38.8
53.8
56.3
70.3
75.7

268.9
269.2
273.2
275.7
281.6
284.9
288.3
291.8
292.2
293.2
298.4
307.9

180.5
183.1
185.3
189.9
195.1
199.0
203.8
210.4
214.8
220.4
226.4
232.7

68.9
68.5
67.6
68.6
69.2
66.5
71.9
74.6
72.7
77.2
75.8
75.7

denomination
time
deposits '

Large
denomination
time
deposits 1

NSA

9.5
15.2
38.0
51.1
43.2
62.7
64.6
84.1

17.4
28.0
78.0

Small

1
Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than
$100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively.

Term
repurchase
agreements
(RPs)

Term
Eurodollars
(net)

NSA

Savings
deposits

NSA

222.1
259.0
301.8
327.8
329.9
413.9
436.5
444.2

29.5
34.0
36.0
34.5
51.8
62.2
66.0
81.1

44.7

289.7
303.6
371.4

635.3
730.2
825.1
852.8
785.2
887.5
880.3
852.4

304.0
304.9
306.9
311.4
318.5
325.0
331.2
337.6
344.4
353.8
363.3
371.4

885.9
891.0
894.7
895.9
891.2
885.6
883.7
877.2
871.3
861.8
854.9
852.4

447.9
451.3
450.5
452.1
446.4
445.1
445.9
448.0
447.1
442.9
442.8
444.2

68.8
70.6
71.6
71.5
74.2
75.3
75.0
75.5
78.0
77.8
81.8
81.1

76.0
79.2
82.7
81.5
79.8
80.1
78.6
78.4
81.8
79.0
80.2
83.3

423.9
401.4
344.8
357.9
306.6

50.3
67.5
81.7
91.5
83.1
76.7
83.3

Shortterm
Treasury
securities

Bankers'
acceptances

Commercial
paper

133.4
149.6
184.4
214.9
266.0
308.4

27.2
32.1
39.9
44.3
44.5
43.6
41.1

97.0
98.1
102.8
109.9
135.6
161.8
209.5

305.6
307.8
300.3
r
299.1
r
306.2
r
300.2
r
292.5
r
288.6
289.4
287.6
298.7

41.6
42.4
41.7
41.0
40.1
40.3
39.4
r
37.3
36.7
38.1
37.8

210.6
209.2
209.5
203.0
206.7
210.6
212.3
219.3
221.1
224.3
224.3

Savings
bonds

79.6
72.3
67.8
68.0
71.2
74.3
79.5

79.9
80.5
81.1
81.8
82.6
83.4
84.3
85.3
86.4
87.8
89.9

107.8

r
r

r

Travelers checks are a component of money stock but are not shown hei
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstern.

NOTE.—See note p. 26.

CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT
[Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted]
Net change in installment credit outstanding 1

Installment credit outstanding (end of period)
Period
Total

1977:
19781979:
1980198119821983198419851985-

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec....
Dec
Dec ...
Dec
Dec
Nov
Dec

1986' Jan
Feb
Mar....
May
June...
July

Sept ...
Oct r
Nov p

221,475
261,976
296,483
297,667
314,321
327,173
376,239
453,580
535,098
528,621
535,098
542,753
547,852
550,939
555,810
562,267
r
567,653
573,216
r
576,609
584,334
591,542
595,560

Automobile

Revolving

Mobile
home

Other

80,948
98,739
112,475
112,255
120,020
125,369
145,908
173,122
206,482

36,689
45,202
53,357
54,894
60,750
66,007
78,369
98,514
118,296
117,050
118,296
119,682
120,724
122,131
123,442
124,545
r
124,720
125,577
125,915
126,012
126,514
128,102

16,362
16,921
18,207
19,119
20,382
20,998
22,194
24,184
25,461
25,315
25,461
25,371
25,573
25,584
25,513
r
25,560
r
25,479
25,398
25,215
24,958
24,994
25,029

87,476
101,114
112,444
111,399
113,169
114,799
129,768
157,760
184,859
182,490
184,859
187,039
188,212
188,863
191,041
r
!93,197
194,847
196,007
196,665
197,084
199,485
201,036

203,766
206,482
210,661
213,342
214,361
215,814
218,965
222,606
r
226,234
r
228,814
r
236,280
240,548
241,392

1
For year-end data, change from preceding vear-end; for monthly data, change from preceding
month.




Total

33,693
40,501
34,507
1,184
16,654
12,852
49,066
77,341
81,518
5,643
6,477
7,655
5,099
3,087
4,871
6,457
5,386
5,564
3,393
7,724
7,208
4,018

Automobile

14,127
17,791
13,736
-220
7,765
5,349
20,539
27,214
33,360
1,772
2,716
4,179
2,682
1,019
1,452
3,151
3,642
3,628
2,579
7,466
4,268
844

Revolving

20,094
8,513
8,155
1,537
5,856
5,257
12,362
20,145
19,782
1,832
1,246
1,386
1,042
1,407
1,311
1,103
175
857
338
97
502
1,588

Mobile
home

624
559
1,286
912
1,263
616
1,196
1,990
1,277
-5
146
-90
203
11
— 71
48
-81
-81
-183
-257
37
35

Other

-1,152
13,638
11,330
-1,045
1,770
1,630
14,969
27,992
27,099
2,044
2,369
2,180
1,173
651
2,178
2,155
1,650
1,160
659
419
2,401
1,551

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstem.

27

BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES, AND RESERVES
Commercial and industrial loans rose 3.2 percent in December.
BILLION S OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
2,200
2,000
'
1,800
1,600

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)

,- 2,200
ALL COMMERCIAL BANK S

1,400
1,200
1,000

^^—I

_,. _ - -

1

—-|

2,000
1,800
1,600

*"""

"

—

1,400
1,200

^^-—'

r^---]

—

800
600

-^^

r^

__

-—-

-]

.

.

1,000
800

JANS AND LEA

—

—

400

600

400

,—
U.S. GC VERNMENT SE CURITIES
\

200

\
r^.

160

—"

-; ^— •=-—' —•*•---

=,

.

• -- —x'

'

200

-•
'"

,

\

'' —

160

1

—

C JTHER SECURIT ES

120

120

1978

iiiniiiiii

miilmn

1980

i i m l i n i i [ 1 1 1 1 1 i1 1 1 1

80

1981

1979

illlillllil
1982

nmlmii umlinii I l l l l l l l l l l
1984

1983

1985

• SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEW

illllllllll
1986

80

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
All commercial banks

Depository institutions 3

1

Reserves adjusted
for changes in
reserve requirements

Loans and leases
Period

Total loans
and
securities 2
Total

1979:
1980:
1981:
198219831984:
19851986:
1986-

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec ..
Dec
Dec
Dec p
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mav

July
Aug
Sept r
Oct ''.
Nov"
Dec p

1,136.2
1,240.5
1,308.2
1,401.1
1,553.5
1,722.6
1,900.4
2,079.7
1,930.0
1,935.5
1,944.6
1,947.9
1,957.5
1,963.7
1,985.0
2,007.7
2,029.6
2,034.0
2,049.0
2,079.7

z

849.9
915.4
968.4
1,033.9
1,123.7
1,319.7
1,449.7
1,576.9
1,469.3
1,473.7
1,491.8
1,495.8
1,501.5
1,505.3
1,513.4
1,524.5
1,534.7
1,537.7
1,549.5
1,576.9

Commercial
and industrial
loans

291.3
327.4
355.9
392.5
414.0
472.9
499.5
536.7
502.1
502.4
506.1
507.8
506.7
508.7
508.7
510.4
512.1
514.1
520.3
536.7

U.S.
Government
securities




securities
Total

144.4
170.6
179.2
201.9
259.7
260.9
273.1
309.4
268.2
273.6
269.5
270.0
274.1
274.8
285.4
290.9
294.3
299.6
304.8
309.4

-related institutions. Data beginning January 1984 are not strict!;

28

Other

Borrowings
(millions of dollars,
unadjusted)

142.0
154.5
160.6
165.3
170.1
142.1
177.6
193.4
192.5
188.1
183.3
182.1
181.9
183.6
186.1
192.3
200.7
196.7
194.8
193.4

29.15
30.99
32.19
34.41
36.16
39.51
45.61
55.64
45.88
46.37
46.87
47.28
48.58
49.45
50.49
51.32
51.81
52.40
r
53.82
55.64

Nonborrowed

27.67
29.30
31.55
33.78
35.38
36.32
44.29
54.81
45.11
45.49
46.10
46.38
47.70
48.64
49.75
50.45
50.80
51.56
r
53.07
54.81

Required

28.70
30.48
31.87
33.91
35.59
38.66
44.55
54.27
44.77
45.27
45.97
46.47
47.74
48.51
49.58
50.58
51.08
51.66
r
52.85
54.27

Total

1 ,473
1,690
636
634
774
3,186
1,318
827
770
884
761
893
876
803
741
872
1,008
841
752
827

Seasonal

81
116
54
33
96
113
56
38
36
56
68
73
94
108
116
144
137
99
70
38

SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL
CORPORATE BUSINESS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Sources

Uses
External

Period

Credit market funds
Total

Internal '
Total
Total

Securities
and
mortgages

Loans and
short-term
paper

Total

Other 2

Capital
expenditures 3

Increase in
financial
assets

Discrepancy
(sources less
uses)

' 328.5
r
352.6
347.6
382.5
327.6
431.3
503.4
483.1

182.3
197.6
200.1
239.5
242.3
285.7
326.3
352.5

146.3
155.1
147.5
143.0
85.3
145.6
177.1
130.6

85.0
87.8
94.3
93.7
80.6
87.6
116.4
82.1

51.8
66.9
41.2
70.9
36.6
30.3
126.5
66.8

61.2
67.3
53.2
49.3
4.7
r
58.0
60.7
r
48.5

r

21.0
53.1
22.8
44.0
57.3
r
-10.0
15.3

309.4
362.8
343.2
r
349.2
292.0
399.1
469.1
438.5

216.9
238.3
244.1
286.3
256.3
274.8
371.2
353.1

92.4
124.5
99.1
62.8
35.7
124.3
97.9
85.4

19.2
-10.1
4.4
33.3
35.6
32.2
34.3
44.6

432.2
421.9
505.0
573.2

1978
1979
1980
1981 .
1982
1983
1984
1985 r

339.4
350.3
365.2
355.1

92.8
71.6
139.8
218.1

71.7
58.2
53.0
145.6

-10.1
29.4
17.0
24.8

81.8
28.8
36.0
120.8

21.1
13.4
86.8
72.5

r

407.8
406.6
417.3
522.3

340.1
349.8
349.0
373.5

67.8
56.8
68.3
148.8

24.3
15.3
87.7
50.9

413.5
456.0
389.6

361.7
355.6
359.6

51,8
100.3
30.0

87.5
67.1
15.4

393.0
430.9
344.7

380.2
354.4
336.3

12.8
76.4
8.4

20.6
25.1
45.0

1985: I
II
HI
IV
1986: I

n p
m

T

r
33.3
r

51.8
50.1
17.4

1
Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital
consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained
abroad.
*• Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment m the L.S.

35.7
17.0
-2.0

r

r

r

-35.7
33.3
14.6

r

3
Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment,
Government.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstem.

leral rights from U.S.

CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL
CORPORATIONS
[Billions of dollars, except as noted]
Current liabilities

Current assets
End of period
Total

QFR-FRB series: 2
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1983: IV
1984- I
II

m

IV
1985- I

n
m

IV
1986- I p




1,043.7
1,214.8
1,328.3
1,419.6
1,437.1
1,575.9
1,703.0
1,784.6
1,575.9
1,619.5
1,650.0
1,685.9
1,703.0
1,722.7
1,734.6
1,763.0
1,784.6
1,795.7

Cash

105.5
118.0
127.0
135.6
147.8
171.8
173.6
189.2
171.8
167.6
164.9
161.3
173.6
167.5
167.1
176.3
189.2
195.3

U.S.
Government
securities

17.2
16.7
18.7
17.7
23.0
31.0
36.2
33.0
31.0
35.4
37.2
33.0
36.2
35.7
35.4
32.6
33.0
31.0

Notes and
accounts
receivable

388.0
459.0
507.5
532.5
517.4
583.0
633.1
671.5
583.0
606.4
622.6
639.1
633.1
650.3
654.1
661.0
671.5
663.4

Inventories

431.8
505.1
543.0
584.0
579.0
603.4
656.9
666.0
603.4
622.2
632.5
659.3
656.9
665.7
666.7
675.0
666.0
679.6

Other
current
assets

101.1
116.0
132.1
149.7
169.8
186.7
203.2
224.9
186.7
187.9
192.9
193.2
203.2
203.5
211.2
218.2
224.9
226.3

Total

669.5
807.3
890.6
971.3
986.0
1,059.6
1,163.6
1,233.6
1,059.6
1,093.1
1,126.3
1,155.0
1,163.6
1,174.1
1,182.9
1,211.9
1,233.6
1,222.3

Notes and
accounts
payable

383.0
460.8
514.4
547.1
550.7
595.7
647.8
682.7
595.7
601.9
623.4
642.2
647.8
636.9
651.7
670.4
682.7
668.4

Other
current
liabilities

286.5
346.5
376.2
424.1
435.3
463.9
515.8
550.9
463.9
491.2
502.9
512.9
515.8
537.1
531.2
541.5
550.9
553.9

Net
working
capital

374.3
407.5
437.8
448.3
451.1
516.3
539.5
551.0
516.3
526.5
523.7
530.8
539.5
548.6
551.7
551.1
551.0
573.4

Current
ratio 1

1.559
1.505
1.492
1.462
1.458
1.487
1.464
1.447
1.487
1.482
1.465
1.460
1.464
1.467
1.466
1.455
1.447
1.469

the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census from the Federal Trade Commission.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau
of the Census), and Federal Trade Commission.

29

INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS
Interest rates fell in January.
PERCENT PER ANNUM
16 T

PERCENT PER ANNUM

16

1985

1986

1987

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC /

[Percent per annum]
U.S. Treasury security yields
Period

3-month hills
(new issues) l

Constant maturities 2
3-year

10-year

High-grade
municipal
bonds
(Standards &
Poor's)

Corporate
Aaa bonds
(Moody's) 4

Prime
commercial
paper,
6 months *

Discount rate
(N.Y. F.E.
Bank) 5

Prime rate
charged 5bv
banks

Ne\v-home
mortgage
yields
(FHLBB) 6

8.63
9.58
7.48
5.98

14.44
12.92
10.45
11.89
9.64
7.06

13.91
13.00
11.10
12.44
10.62
7.68

11.23
11.57
9.47
10.15
C
9.18
7.38

14.17
13.79
12.04
12.71
11.37
9.02

14.76
11.89
8.89
10.16
8.01
6.39

13.41
11.02
8.50
8.80
7.69
6.33

18.87
14.86
10.79
12.04
9.93
8.33

14.70
15.14
12.57
12.38
11.55
10.17

7.04
7.03
6.59
6.06
6.12
6.21
5.84
5.57
5.19
5.18
5.35
5.49

8.41
8.10
7.30
6.86
7.27
7.41
6.86
6.49
6.62
6.56
6.46
6.43

9.19
8.70
7.78
7.30
7.71
7.80
7.30
7.17
7.45
7.43
7.25
7.11

8.06
7.44
7.07
7.32
7.67
7.98
7.62
7.31
7.14
7.12
6.86
6.93

10.05
9.67
9.00
8.79
9.09
9.13
8.88
8.72
8.89
8.86
8.68
8.49

7.62
7.54
7.08
6.47
6.53
6.63
6.24
5.83
5.61
5.61
5.69
5.88

7.50-7.50
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.00
7.00-6.50
6.50-6.50
6.50-6.50
6.50-6.00
6.00-5.50
5.50-5.50
5.50-5.50
5.50-5.50
5.50-5.50

9.50- 9.50
9.50- 9.50
9.50- 9.00
9.00- 8.50
8.50- 8.50
8.50- 8.50
8.50- 8.00
8.00- 7.50
7.50- 7.50
7.50- 7.50
7.50- 7.50
7.50- 7.50

10.89
10.68
10.50
10.27
10.22
10.15
10.30
10.26
10.17
10.02
r
9.91
9.69

5.45

6.41

7.08

6.63

8.36

5.76

5.50-5.50

7.50- 7.50

9.55

5.53
5.38
5.23
5.44
5.58

6.38
6.39
6.37
6.46

7.05
7.07
7.03
7.15

6.71
6.68
6.53
6.61

8.40
8.33
8.31
8.37

5.77
5.73
5.71
5.78

5.50-5.50
5.50-5.50
5.50-5.50
5.50-5.50
5.50-

7.50- 7.50
7.50- 7.50
7.50- 7.50
7.50- 7.50
7.50-

14.029
10.686

1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

1986
1986- Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
July
Sept

Oct
Nov..
Dec

1987- Jan
Week ended:

1987: Jan 10
17
24
31
Feb 7
1

Bank-discount basis,
Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant i laturities bv the Treasurv Depart men t.
3
Weekly data are Wednesday figures,
4
Series'excludes public utility issues for January 17, 1984 through October 11, 1084 due to lack
of appropriate issues.
2

30




5

Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week.
6
Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as
well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years.
Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS
Stock prices rose in January.
INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50

INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50

160

160

140

140

120

120

COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX
(NYSE)

-V

100

100

80

80

60

60

40

40

Illlll
1979

1980

1981

1982

1984

1983

1985

1986

PERCENT

1987

PERCENT

20

20
15

- EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS

(S&P)

10

10

J
1979

1980

1981

1982

I 1
1984

1983

SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Common stock prices 1
New York Stock Exchange indexes (E

3)

Common stock5 yields
(percent)

z

Period
Composite

Industrial

Transportation

Finance

Utility

Dow-Jones
industrial
average 3

Standard &
Poor's
composite
index (194143=10) 4

Dividendprice ratio

74.02
68.93
92.63
92,46
108.09
136.00

85.44
78.18
107.45
108.01
123.79
155.85

72.61
60.41
89.36
85.63
104.11
119.87

38.91
39.75
47.00
46.44
56.75
71.36

73.52
71.99
95.34
89.28
114.21
147.20

932.92
884.36
1,190.34
1,178.48
1,328.23
1,792.76

128.05
119.71
160.41
160.46
186.84
236.34

5.20
5.81
4.40
4.64
4.25
3.49

Sept
Oct
Nov
Dee

120.16
126.43
133.97
137.27
137.37
140.82
138.32
140.91
137.06
136.74
140.84
142.12

137.13
144.03
152.75
157.30
158.59
163.15
158.06
160.10
156.52
156.56
162.10
163.85

115.72
124.18
128.66
126.17
122.21
120.65
112.03
111.24
114.06
120.04
122.27
121.26

62.46
65.18
68.06
69.46
68.65
70.69
74.20
77.84
74.56
73.38
75.77
76.07

132.36
142.13
153.94
155.07
151.28
151.73
150.23
152.90
145.56
143.89
142.97
144.29

1,534.86
1,652.73
1,757.35
1,807.05
1,801.80
1,867.70
1,809.92
1,843.45
1,813.47
1,817.04
1,883.65
1,924.07

208.19
219.37
232.33
237.97
238.46
245.30
240.18
245.00
238.27
237.36
245.09
248.61

3.90
3.72
3.50
3.43
3.42
3.36
3.43
3.36
3.43
3.49
3.40
3.38

1987* Tan

151.17

175.60

126.61

78.54

153.32

2,065.13

264.51

3.17

Week ended:
1987: Jan 3
10
17
24
31

139.65
146.31
150.67
154.04
155.70

161.36
168.94
174.71
179.40
181.91

118.14
123.47
126.60
128.69
129.21

74.39
77.19
78.30
79.45
79.89

141.04
150.80
154.43
155.25
154.93

1,911.00
1,989.65
2,040.95
2,109.65
2,147.83

244.17
255.26
262.93
270.05
273.42

Earningsprice ratio

3.47
3.28
3.20
3.14
3.07

1981
1982
1983
1984

1985
1986
1986' Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
June
July




11.96
11.60
8.03
10.02
8.12

6.08
r

5.87

'rice ratios based on prices at end of quarter.
NOTE.—All data relate to stoeks listed on the New- York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
• York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corprices. Earnings-

31

FEDERAL FINANCE
FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT
In the first 3 months of fiscal 1987, there was a deficit of $64.3 billion compared with a deficit of $75.1 billion a
year earlier.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1,100
,000
900

500
400

400

SURPLUS OF DEFICIT (-)L/ _

-100

-100

-200

-200
1979

1981

1980

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

FISCAL YEARS
!/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]

Fiscal year or period
Receipts

Outlays

Surplus
or deficit
(-)

Receipts

Outlays

Gross Federal debt
(end of period)

Off-budget

On-budget

Total

Surplus
or deficit
(-)

Receipts

Outlays

Surplus
or deficit
(-)

Total

Held by
the public

1979

279.1
298.1
81.2
355.6
399.6
463.3

332.3
371.8
96.0
409.2
458.7
503.5

-53.2
-73.7
-14.7
-53.6
-59.2
-40.2

216.6
231.7
63.2
278.7
314.2
365.3

271.9
302.2
76.6
328.5
369.1
403.5

-55.3
-70.5
-13.3
— 49.7
-54.9
-38.2

62.5
66.4
18.0
76.8
85.4
98.0

60.4
69.6
19.4
80.7
89.7
100.0

2.0
-3.2
-1.4
-3.9
-4.3
-2.0

544.1
631.9
646.4
709.1
780.4
833.8

396.9
480.3
498.3
551.8
610.9
644.6

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

517.1
599.3
617.8
600.6
666.5

590.9
678.2
745.7
808.3
851.8

-73.8
-78.9
-127.9
-207.8
-185.3

403.9
469.1
474.3
453.2
500.4

476.6
543.0
594.3
661.2
686.0

-72.7
-73.9
-120.0
-208.0
-185.6

113.2
130.2
143.5
147.3
166.1

114.3
135.2
151.4
147.1
165.8

— 1.1

-5.0
-7.9
.2
.3

914.3
1,003.9
1,147.0
1,381.9
1,576.7

715.1
794.4
929.4
1,141.8
1,312.6

1985
1986
1987 i
1988 1

734.1
769.1
842.4
916.6

946.3
989.8
1,015.6
1,024.3

— 212.3
-220.7
-173.2
-107.8

547.9
568.9
628.4
674.5

769.5
806.3
821.1
821.9

-221.6
-237.5
-192.7
— 147.4

186.2
200.2
214.0
242.1

176.8
183.5
194.5
202.4

9.4
16.7
19.5
39.7

1,827.2
2,132.9
2,372.4
2,585.5

1,509.9
1,746.1
1,908.4
2,015.1

Cumulative total, first 3
months:
Fiscal year 1986
Fiscal year 1987

177.2
190.0

252.4
254.4

-75.1
-64.3

134.3
142.7

210.5
208.0

-76.2
-65.3

42.9
47.3

41.9
46.3

1.1
1.0

1,950.3
2,218.9

1,600.4
1,814.7

1975
1976

.

1977
1978

1

Estimates from Budget of Ikr United States Gorernmeat, Fiscal Year 1988, January 1887.

32




Sources: Department o the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND
OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
In the first 3 months of fiscal 1987, receipts were $12.8 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $2.0
billion higher.
BILLIC NS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DO LLARS

400
RECEIPTS!/

300

—

400

•— "~

_ —• —'

300

7

"

200

SOCIAL INSURANCE

200

TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS
""CORPORATION INCOME TAXES

100

100

/

"I

0

700

INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES

,

^^r=^r.

~*^ OTHER RECEIPTS

'

j

!

1

_.

1

1

0

OUTLAYS^ .

700

NONDEFENSE

\

600

'"

600

500

500

400

400
NATIONAL DEFENSE

300

300

200

200

100

100
1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1985

1984

1987

1986

1988

FISCAL YEARS
_L/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
On-budget and off-budget outlays

On-budget and off-budget receipts
Social
insurance
taxes

National defense

Individual
income
taxes

Corporation
income
taxes

1979

298.1
355.6
399.6
463.3

131.6
157.6
181.0
217.8

41.4
54.9
60.0
65.7

90.8
106.5
121.0
138.9

34.3
36.6
37.7
40.8

371.8
409.2
458.7
503.5

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

517.1
599.3
617.8
600 6
666.5

244.1

157.8
182.7
201.5

298.4

64.6
61.1
49.2
37.0
56.9

50.6
69.5
69.3
65.6
71.8

1985
1986
1987 '
1988 '

734.1
769.1
842.4
916.6

334.5
349.0
364.0
392.8

61.3
63.1
104.8
117.2

265.2
283.9
333.2

177.2
190.0

84.2
88.8

14.9
18.0

59.4
65.2

Fiscal year
Total

1976
1977
1978

Cumulative total, first 3 months:
Fiscal year 1986




.. .

285.9
297.7

288 9

Department of
Defense,
military

International
affairs

89.6
97.2
104.5
116.3

88.1
95.3
102.3
113.7

6.4
6.4

590.9
678.2
745.7
808.3
851.8

134.0
157.5
185.3
209.9
227.4

73.0
946.3
989.8
73.)
72.2 1,015.6
73.4 1,024.3

Other

Total
Total

and

contributions

209.0
239.4

301.5

18.8
18.0

252.4
254.4

Health

Medicare

Income
security

Social
security

Net
interest

Other

7.5
7.5

15.7
17.3
18.5
20.5

15.8
19.3
22.8
26.5

60.8
61.0
61.5
66.4

73.9
85.1
93.9
104.1

26.7
29.9
35.4
42.6

82.8
93.0
114.7
119.8

131.0
153.8
180.7
204.4
220.8

12.7
13.1
12.3
11.8
15.9

23.2
26.9
27.4
28.6
30.4

32.1
39.1
46.6
52.6
57.5

86.5
99.7
107.7
122.6
112.7

118.5
139.6
156.0
170.7
178.2

52.5
68.7
85.0
89.8
111.1

131.4
133.5
1 25.4
122.3
118.6

252.7
273.4
282.2
297.6

245.4
265.6
274.2
289.3

16.2
14.2
14.6
15.2

33.5
35.9
39.7
38.9

65.8
70.2
71.6
73.0

128.2
119.8
124.9
124.8

188.6
198.8

129.4
136.0
137.5
139.0

131.8
141.7
137.2
116.5

67.8
68.5

65.9
66.2

4.5
4.4

8.7
9.4

17.4
19.2

30.4
31.1

207.9

219.4

47.3
50.1

34.8
34.3

41.5
37.4

Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

33

FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS
In the third quarter of 1986, Federal receipts rose $19.6 billion (annual rate) and expenditures fell $15.2 billion,
yielding a deficit of $197.4 billion. In the fourth quarter, according to preliminary estimates, expenditures rose
$12.5 billion; receipts data are incomplete.
BILLIO •JS OF DOLLARS
1,200

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1,200

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
—

1,000

1,000
_

EXPENDITURES

-"'

V-

800

—

800

' \
" ^
^,,-

,..-.., ;

-

—

^

\\ ' "
RECEIPTS

S"

600

s-~-^

600

__--^lr°*^~~~~~~ '^^^

—

400

400

—

—

200

200

—

—

' —• —

0

200

1 1 I
1978

!

1

1

JS OR DEFICIT

K

~~-^_~

1

1

1

1

1980

1979

1

1

1981

i i i

0

H
—

-_.

—
i

I I
1983

1982

1

1 I
1984

-200

1

1

1

1985

1

1

1

1986

CALENDAR YEARS
SOURCE; DEPARTMEN T OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Federal Government receipts

Period
Total

Fiscal year:
1984
1985. .
1986
198V1
Calendar year:
1983
1984
1985
1986 p
1982- IV

1983: IV
1984- IV
1985- I
II
Ill
IV
1986- I
II
Ill
IV "

Personal
tax and
nontax
receipts

Corporate
profits
tax
accruals

Indirect
business
tax and
nontax
accruals

Federal Government expenditures

Contributions for
social
Lnsurance

Purchases
of goods
and
services

Total

Transfer
payments

Grantsin-aid to
State
and
local
governments




Less:
Wage
accruals
less
disbursements

712.6
774.6
814.7
874.6

302.4
340.2
355.8
368.7

76.3
71.7
83.0
108.9

54.9
56.5
52.2
53.8

279.0
306.2
323.7
343.2

873.9
962.1
1,025.4
1,060.5

297.8
341.1
367.1
384.8

352.3
374.2
394.2
409.5

90.7
97.7
107.4
104.6

109.7
128.3
136.8
138.5

23.5
20.9
19.9
25.1

659.9
726.5
786.8
826.2

294.5
309.3
345.6
361.8
303.0
291.9
325.5
360.7
316.6
349.6
355.6

61.3
75.9
73.6

51.6
55.7
56.1
52.3
47.6
53.6
55.9
55.1
59.3
53.9
56.0
52.7
50.7
53.4
52.5

252.5
285.5
311.5
328.9
236.1
259.8
292.6
306.9
310.0
312.2
317.0
325.8
327.2
329.6
333.1

835.9
896.5
984.9
1,030.2
835.7
844.7
934.0
955.4
970.6
990.1
1,023.4
1,001.5
1,045.7
1,030.5
1,043.0

283.5
311.3
354.1
367.2
293.2
276.1
329.1
333.7
340.9
360.9
380.9
355.7
367.6
369.3
376.3

348.6
355.0
380.3
397.5
347.4
352.5
362.1
374.2
377.2
384.1
385.9
389.3
396.7
403.0
401.1

86.2
93.6
99.0
104.0
84.5
86.0
96.9
95.7
98.3
100.2
101.6
103.5
106.9
108.0
97.7

94.3
115.6
130.5
135.8
87.2

22.9
21.3
20.7
25.6
23.4
29.1
21.5
24.4
22.3
15.1
21.1

.6
.1
-1.0
.0
.0

18.0
36.5
15.4
32.5

.0
.0
.0
.0

633.1
675.5
743.9
793.3
755.8
792.6
805.8
806.6
813.5
833.1

350.3
355.5
365.8
375 6

83.2
46.4
70.2
69.9
70.5
69.9
76.8
77.2
77.8
80.1
84.3

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bum
Budget.

34

Net
interest
paid

Subsidies
less
current
surplus of
Government
enterprises

101.0
124.9
127.6
130.9
129.8
133.9
135.0
138.1
134.7
135.4

0.1
-.1
.0
2.0
£

.2
_^2
.0
.0
.0

Surplus
or deficit
(-),
national
income
and
product
accounts

-161.3
-187.5
-210.7
-185.9
-176.0
-170.0
-198.0
- 204.0
-202.6
-169.2
-190.1
-162.2
-214.8
-197.5
— 217.6
-195.0
— 232.2
-197.4

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
Industrial production (1977=100: seasonally adjusted)
Period

United
States

Canada

Japan

France

Germany

Consumer prices (1967 = 100)
United
Kingdom

Italy

United
States 1

Canada

Japan

France

Germany

Italy

United
Kingdom

108.6
111.0
103.1
109.2
121.4
123.8
125 1

108.1

108.6
98.9
104.1
112.7
118.2

118.9
120.1
120.6
124.7
138.4
144.8

106
103
101
102
105
106

107
105
102
103
106
112

114.7
112.1
109.6
103.9
107.1
108.4

100
96
98
101
103
108

246.8
272.4
289.1
298.4
311.1
322.2
328.4

243.5
273.9
303.5
321.0
335.0
348.3
362.8

282.3
296.2
304.1
309.7
316.6
323.0

294.2
332.7
373.1
407.9
439.5
465.1

175.8
186.9
196.8
203.3
208.2
212.7

398.0
472.4
549.4
631.8
698.8
764.7

423.6
473.9
514.7
538.3
565.1
599.4

1985: Dec

125.6

121.2

144.6

104

111

106.6

107

327.4

354.7

325.2

472.1

213.5

791.6

608.7

1986: Jan
Feb
Mar

126.2
125 3
123.6
124.7
124.2
124.2
124.9
125.1
' 124.9
' 125.3
' 126.0
1266

120.3 144.6
120.3 145.2
117.1 144.5
120.2 144.6
117.7 145.1
116.6 145.3
r
l!8.1 144.9
116.3 141.3
r
l!6.2 ' 146.3
117.5 143.5
116 5

104
107
104
110
103
108
109
109
109
109

113
113
113
117
112
116
117
116
r
l!4
114

108.0
111.0
114.5
116.2
108.5
113.7
110.6
105.6
r
l!0.8
110.3

109
110
110
111
109
107
110
110
111
110

328.4
327.5
326.0
325.3
326.3
327.9
328.0
328.6
330.2
330.5
330.8
331.1

356.3
357.7
358.5
359.1
360.7
361.3
363.9
365.1
365.1
366.9
368.9
369.5

325.8
324.4
323.5
324.7
326.9
325.2
324.4
323.8
325.4
325.7
324.1

472.6
471.7
472.9
474.7
475.6
477.0
477.5
478.0
479.9
480.9
481.4

213.8
213.3
212.8
212.6
212.6
212.9
211.9
211.4
211.7
211.0
210.8

795.6
801.2
804.4
806.8
809.9
813.1
813.1
814.7
817.1
822.0

610.0
612.2
613.0
619.0
620.1
619.8
618.0
619.9
623.0
623.9
629.2

1980
1981

1982
1983
1984
1985
1986

p

May

July
Sept
Oct
Nov "
Dec "

Source: National source? as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis
and International Trade Administration).

U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
[Millions of dollars; monthly data for statistical month, not seasonally adjusted*]
Merchandise exports:

Period

Total
domestic
and
foreign
exports

Merchandise imports

Total

2

Food,
beverages, and
tobacco

Crude
materials
and fuels

Merchandise trade balance

General imports3

Domestic exports
Manufactured
goods

Total

Exports
(f.a.s.) less
imports
(customs
value)

Exports
(f.a.s.) less
imports
(f.a.s.)

Exports
(f.a.s.) less
imports
(c.i.f.)

-29,158
-31,076
-27,599
-24,241

-39,179
-42,364
-40,368
-36,354

Food,
beverages, and
tobacco

z

Crude
materials
and fuels

Manufactured
goods

Total
(c.i.f.
value)

14,227
15,743
17,735
18,551

53,554
51,901
71,390
93,973

76,554
100,317
112,226
125,122

186,045
222,228
256,984

254,885 -31,759
269,878
-57,562
341,177 -107,861
361,626 -132,129
387,082 -152,657

-42,691
-69,392
-123,312
-148,480
-169,777

F.a.s. value
121,232
143,681
181,860
220,630

1977

1978
1979
1980

119,024
141,142
178,633
216,515

15,963
20,604
24,587
30,407

18,579
20,957
28,222
33,719

80,151
94,473
116,587
143,891

150,390
174,757
209,458
244,871

160,411

Customs value
212,193
200,486
217,865
213,146
217,304

1986: Jan*
Feb*
Mar*
Apr*
May*
June**
July**
Get*
Noy*
Dec*

207,076
195,917
212,034
206,925
206,376

26,977
26,979
27,312
22,226
20,223

33,518
29,555
31,482
28,344
26,453

139,716
132,409
143,142
145,384
148,690

243,952
258,048
325,726
345,276
369,961

17,817
18,819
21,626
22,376
24,669

74,404
68,037
72,758
64,981
48,257

144,022
163,449
221,515
246,778
282,121

16,994

1982
1983
1984
1985
1986*

16,479

1,907

2,459

11,221

30,728

2,138

6,011

21,654

32,141

-13,734

-15,146

16,501
17,164
18,349
17,376
16,691
16,427
15,911
16,831
16,860
18,594
17,895
17,777

1,797
1,689
1,706
1,475
1,395
1,438
1,648
1,814
1,672
1,866
1 ,863
1,861

2,467
2,367
2,349
2,436
2,228
1,776
1,764
2,035
1,988
2,287
2,339
2,419

11,393
12,182
13,325
12,615
12,274
12,298
11,623
12,042
12,253
13,367
12,755
12,564

32,005
28,895
31,972
28,762
30,272
31,764
34,121
29,476
28,695
30,018
36,187
27,795

2,215
1,908
2,100
2,018
2,329
1,886
2,143
1,931
1,963
1,935
2,328
1,912

6,234
4,741
4,284
3,176
3,659
4,163
3,963
3,413
3,874
3,514
3,866
3,371

22,477
21,289
24,261
22,226
23,001
23,971
26,609
23,106
21,849
23,537
28,350
21,446

33,465
30,225
33,435
30,036
31,638
33,240
35,745
30,925
30,078
31,389
37,816
29,089

-14,999
-11,161
-13,059
-10,797
-12,842
-12,694
-16,414
-11,871
— 11,177
-10,688
-17,592
-9,364

-16,459
-12,491
-14,522
-12,071
-14,208
-14,170
-18,037
-13,321
-12,560
- 12,059
-19,221
- 10,658

17,006
17,735
18,913
17,965
17,431
19,070
17,707
17,604
17,518
19,330
18,595
18,431

1
Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded through 1984 and included beginning 1985.
z
Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.
3
Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.
NOTE.—Imports on c.i.f. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods.
Data beginning 1980 include trade of t'he U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Islands exports are reflected in the figures for domestic and foreign exports combined and trade balance.




For further information and for details regarding revised

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

35

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
In the third quarter of 1986 the current account deficit was $36.3 billion, up from $34.4 billion in the second
quarter. The merchandise trade deficit rose to $37.7 billion from $35.7 billion in the second quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*

10

10

BALANCE ON GOODS
AND SERVICES

5

5

YC— ~s\

A

0

I

BALANCE ON
CURRENT ACCOUNT
'"*"*'>

S

/'

Vi

*

\

\

/'

^

1
I

/

MER

ff

_e

\

f

1

'

-15

n
'*
".

'

:HANDISE TRA
BALANCE

-10

A\\
\\i

-15

\

-20

-20

"\

A -

-25

-25

30

-30

\ \
-35

-35

1 11

-40

1

1978

1

1

1979

1

1

1

1980

I I !

1 1 1

i i>

M l

I I I

i l l

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

-40

* SEASONALLY ADJUS TED
SOURCE: DEPARTMEN T OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISER

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits ( —)]
Merchandise :2

Investment income 3
Net

Period
Exports

184 473
224 269
237 085
211 198
201 820
219 900
214 424

1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

1984
1985
1983- I
II

Imports

— 212
249
— 265
247

009
749
063
642

— 268 900
— 332 422
338 863

Net
balance

Receipts

Payments

27 536
25 480
27 978
36444
— 67*080

64 132
72 506
86411
83 549

32 960
42 120
52 329
54 883
— 52 410

112 522
124 439

77 251
86 221
89 991

Net

military
transactions

Net

travel and
transportation
receipts

Other
services,
net 3

Balance on
goods and
services 1

5 138
9 466

9 237
1 183
274
369
1 827
2 917

2 935
997
144

6 214
7 793
8 699

67 469
64 803

31 172
30 386
34 082
28 666
24 841
18 752
25 188

992
4 227
8 593
11 128

8 829
9 711
9 881
10 603

1 778

Remittances,
pensions,
and other
unilateral
transfers 1
6 128

13 764
214
37 123
94 308

7 593
7 425
8 917
9 481
12 157

Balance
on current
account

991

i 070
6 339
Q 1 01

46 604

49 642
49,216
50,351
52,611

— 59476
-64,798
-70,740
-73,886

— 9 834
-15,582
-20,389
-21,275

18 077
18,732
20,684
19,758

— 12 228
— 12,807
-13,536
-13,839

5 849
5,925
7,148
5,919

492
32
-131
-762

588
-916
-1,226
-1,497

2 238
2,486
2,436
2,552

1 843
-8,055
-12,162
-15,063

1 752
-2,021
-2,375
-3,333

-10,076
-14,537
-18,396

n
rn
IV

53,614
54,590
55,691
56,005

-79,415
-83,684
-84,144
-85,179

— 25,801
-29,094
-28,453
-29,174

22,860
21,104
21,396
20,861

- 15,446
-17,208
-17,991
-16,823

7,414
3,896
3,405
4,038

-281
-615
-234
-696

-1,834
-2,052
-2,332
-2,375

2,630
2,471
2,448
2,333

-17,872
-25,394
-25,166
-25,874

-2,368
-2,439
-3,107
-4,243

-20,240
-27,833
-28,273
-30,117

1985' I
II
HI
IV

55 324
53,875
52,498
52,727

80 369
-84,242
-84,173
-90,079

25 045
-30,367
-31,675
-37,352

18 726
22,253
24,502
24,509

16 507
-16,804
-16,240
-15,254

2 219
5,449
8,262
9,255

246
— 729
-619
-1,322

2 202
-2,864
-3,031
-3,031

2 442
2,552
2,609
2,999

22 832
-25,959
— 24,454
-29,451

-3,458
-4,001
-4,244

-29,417
-28,455
-33,695

1986: I

53,661
55,149
55,318

-90,120
-90,818
-92,987

-36,459
-35,669
-37,669

24,216
22,636
22,482

-17,699
-17,311
-16,973

6,517
5,325
5,509

-1,066
-695
-624

-2,701
-2,395
-2,415

2,694
3,100
3,096

-31,015
-30,334
-32,103

-3,023
-4,079
-4,177

-34,038
-34,413
-36,280

Ill
IV

1984: I

n

III?
1

Excludes military grants.
Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage.
Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the
United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net.
2

3

36




Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Q KQK

Q OOf)

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $20.5 billion in the third quarter of
1986 compared with a rise of $14.4 billion in the second quarter. Liabilities to foreigners and international financial
institutions reported by U.S. banks increased $32.2 billion in the third quarter of 1986 compared to an increase of
$3.6 billion in the second quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*

80

80

CHANGE IN
FOREIGN ASSETS
IN THE U.S..NET

60

60

40

40

20

/
\ ;
\ /

i

20

; \

1

/

-20

\

CHANGE IN
U.S. ASSETS
ABROAD.NET-

V

-20

V

-40

-40

I

-60
1978

I I
1979

I
1980

I

I

I

1981

I

I

J

1

LJ_
1983

1982

1984

I

I

1985

I

I

I

-60

1986

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Foreign assets in the U.S., net
[increase /capital inflow ( + )] 2

U.S. assets abroad, net
[increase/capit
Period
Total

U.S.
official
reserve
assets 1 2

-64,331
-86,118
-111,031
-121,273
-50,022
-23,639
-32,436

1979

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

-1,133
-8,155
-5,175
-4,965
-1,196
-3,131
-3,858

Other U.S.
Government
assets

U.S.
private
assets

-3,746
-59,453
-5,162
-72,802
-5,097 -100,758
-6,131 — 110,177
-5,005
43 821
-5,523 -14,986
-2,824
-25,754

Total

Foreign
official
assets

Other
foreign
assets

38,752
58,112
83,322
94,078
85,496
102,767
127,106

-13,665
15,497
4,960
3,593
5,968
3,037
-1,324

52,416
42,615
78,362
90,486
79,527
99,730
128,430

Statistical discrepancy
Allocations
of special
drawing
rights
(SDKs)

1,139
1,152
1,093

Total (sum
of the items
with sign
reversed)

Of which:
Seasonal
adjustment
discrepancy

U.S. official
reserve
assets, net1
(unadjusted,
end of
period)
18,956
26,756
30,074
33,958
33,747
34,934
43,186

25,431
24,982
20,276
36,325
11,130
27,338
23 006

1983:

I
II
Ill
IV

-23,691
-523
-8,621
-17,186

-787
16
529
-953

-1,134
-1,263
-1,171
-1,436

-21,770
724
-7,979
-14,797

16,200
15,756
19,531
34,009

38
1,591
-2,662
7,002

16,162
14,165
22,194
27,007

11,086
-5,157
3,626
1,573

-88
-176
-3,155
3,417

34,261
33,876
33,066
33,747

1984:

I
II
Ill
IV

-3,571
-20,171
16,443
-16,338

— 657
-566
-799
— 1,110

-2,029
-1,386
-1,388
— 717

-885
-18,220
18,630
-14,512

22,251
41,963
2,668
35,885

-2,947
-157
-765
6,906

25,198
42,120
3,433
28,979

1,560
6,040
9,162
10,570

940
-962
-3,561
3,577

34,975
34,547
34,306
34,934

1985:

I
II
Ill
IV

-510
-2,793
-5,867
-23,266

-233
-356
-121
-3,148

-807
— 1,055
-422
-540

530
-1,382
-5,324
-19,579

14,247
25,358
35,665
51,837

-11,066
8,486
2,577
-1,322

25,313
16,872
33,088
53,158

12,375
6,852
-1,343
5,125

1,094
-1,174
-3,687
3,771

35,493
36,088
38,295
43,186

I

-12,898
-25,550
29 082

-115
16
280

-250
-209
1 346

-12,533
-25,357
-28,016

36,620
47,526
69,133

2,469
14,704
15,839

34,151
32,822
53,294

10,316
12,437
-3,771

1,216
-1,505
-3,993

44,919
46,595
48,087

1986:

n
in "...




its (SDKs), convertible currencies, arid the U.S. reserve

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the
Treasurv.

37

Contents
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING

Page

Gross National Product
Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product
Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures
Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits
National Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Sources of Personal Income
Disposition of Personal Income
Farm Income
Corporate Profits
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment

1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
Status of the Labor Force
Selected Unemployment Rates
Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector

11
12
13
14
15
15
16

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures
New Construction
New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates
Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

17
18
19
19
20
21

PRICES
Producer Prices
Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers
Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods
Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers

22
23
24
24
25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures
Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets
Consumer Installment Credit
Bank Loans and Securities, and Reserves
Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business
Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations
Interest Rates and Bond Yields
Common Stock Prices and Yields

26
27
27
28
29
29
30
31

FEDERAL FINANCE
Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt
Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function
Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis

32
33
34

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries
U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports
U.S. International Transactions

35
35
36

General Notes
Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.
Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.
Symbols used:
p
Preliminary.
' Revised.
c
Corrected.
... Not available (also, not applicable).
NSA not seasonally adjusted.
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402. Price $2.50 (single copy) ($3.13 foreign).
Subscription price: $27.00 per year; $33.75 for foreign mailing.
38




U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE •. 1987

0—68-373