Full text of Economic Indicators : January 1984
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98th Congress, 2d Session Economic Indicators JANUARY 1984 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1984 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) ROGER W. JEPSEN, Iowa, Chairman LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Vice Chairman SENATE WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) JAMES ABDNOR (South Dakota) STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho) MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia) ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York) LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland) HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana) PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland) AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California) DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin) JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) MARJORIE S. HOLT (Maryland) DAN LUNGREN (California) OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine) BRUCE R. BARTLETT, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS MARTIN FELDSTEIN, Chairman WILLIAM A. NISKANEN, Member WILLIAM POOLE, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—SlsT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authomed to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators/' and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $4.25 a single copy l$5.35 foreign), or by subscription at $25.00 per year ($31.25 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 11 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING NATIONAL PRODUCT MKUSb NATlUNAJj FKODUUT According to preliminary estimates for the fourth quarter of 1983, gross national product rose $69.8 billion or 8.6 percent, both at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 4.5 percent (annual rate) and the implicit price deflator rose at a 3.9 percent annual rate. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 3,600 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 3,600 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES , 3,200 3,200 ^^—^ ^ 2,800 __ __ ^n GNP IN CURRENT DOLLARS — ^ 2,400 X — 2,800 2,400 — ^ 2,000 2,000 : ^|' ^Xl 1,600 1,600 \-~~7 ** *" "" GNP 1N 1972 DOLLA RS + ~~~~ — «** ^ •- •"* + ~~~ •••» ^ — -~"" 1,200 1 1 1,200 1 1 1 1 1976 1975 1 1 1 1977 1 1 1978 1 1 1 1 1 1979 1 1 1980 1 1 1 1981 \ 1 1 1 1982 1 1 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1,185.9 1,326.4 1,434.2 1,549.2 1,718.0 1,918.3 2,163.9 2,417.8 2,631.7 2,954.1 3,073.0 3,309.5 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 p 1982: I n m IV 1983: I \ Gross national product n. m iv * 3,021.4 3,070.2 3,090.7 3,109.6 3,171.5 3,272.0 3,362.2 3,432.0 Personal consumption expenditures 737.1 812.0 888.1 976.4 1,084.3 1,204.4 1,346.5 1,507.2 1,668.1 1,857.2 1,991.9 2,158.6 1,938.9 1,972.8 2,008.8 2,046.9 2,073.0 2,147.0 2,181.1 2,233.1 Gross private domestic investment 195.0 229.8 228.7 206.1 257.9 324.1 386.6 423.0 401.9 474.9 414.5 471.3 422.9 432.5 425.3 377.4 404.1 450.1 501.1 529.8 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Government purchases of goods and services Exports and imports of goods and services Net exports 0.7 14.2 13.4 26.8 13.8 40 -1.1 13.2 23i9 26.3 17.4 -10.6 29.9 33.3 .9 5.6 17.0 -8.5 -18.3 -32.6 Federal Exports Imports Total Total 77.5 109.6 146.2 154.9 170.9 182.7 218.7 281.4 338.8 368.8 347.6 335.8 358.4 364.5 346.0 321.6 326.9 327.1 341.1 348.1 76.7 95.4 132.8 128.1 157.1 186.7 219.8 268.1 314.8 342.5 330.2 346.4 328.5 331.2 345.0 316.1 309.9 335.6 359.4 380.7 253.1 270.4 304.1 339.9 362.1 393.8 431.9 474.4 537.8 595.7 649.2 690.2 629.8 631.6 655.7 679.7 677.4 683.4 698.3 701.7 101.7 102.0 111.0 122.7 129.2 143.4 153.6 168.3 197.0 229.2 258.7 275.2 249.7 244.1 261.7 279.2 273.5 273.7 278.1 275.6 National defense 73.1 72.8 77.0 83.0 86.0 92.8 100.3 111.8 131.2 154.0 179.4 200.3 168.1 175.2 183.6 190.8 194.4 199.4 201.2 206.2 Nondefense 28.5 29.1 33.9 39.7 43.2 50.6 53.3 56.5 65.9 75.2 79.3 74.9 81.7 68.9 78.1 88.5 79.1 74.3 76.9 69.4 State and local 151.4 168.5 193.1 217.2 232.9 250.4 278.3 306.0 340.8 366.5 390.5 415.0 380.0 387.5 394.0 400.5 404.0 409.7 420.2 426.1 Final sales 1,175.7 1,307.9 1,420.1 1,556.1 1,706.2 1,895.3 2,137.4 2,403.5 2,641.5 2,935.6 3,097.5 3,316.4 3,047.1 3,081.4 3,095.6 3,165.9 3,210.9 3,286.6 3,353.7 3,414.3 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS [Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross national product Period 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 p 1982: I n m IV 1983- I n m IV' Personal consumption expenditures Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed Government purchases of goods and services Exports of goods and services Gross private domestic investment Change in business inventories Federal Net exports Exports Total Imports Total National defense Nondefense State and local Final sales 1,185.9 1,254.3 1,246.3 1,231.6 1,298.2 1,369.7 1,438.6 1,479.4 1,475.0 1,513.8 1,485.4 1,534.8 737.1 767.9 762.8 779.4 823.1 864.3 903.2 927.6 931.8 956.8 970.2 1,011.4 121.0 138.1 135.7 119.3 125.6 140.3 158.3 169.9 165.8 174.4 166.1 168.0 63.8 62.3 48.2 42.2 51.2 60.7 62.4 59.1 47.1 44.7 37.8 52.7 10.2 17.2 11.6 67 7.8 13.3 16.0 7.3 44 8.5 94 -2.4 0.7 15.5 27.8 32.2 25.4 22.0 24.0 37.2 50.3 43.0 28.9 11.7 77.5 97.3 108.5 103.5 110.1 112.9 126.7 146.2 159.1 159.7 147.3 138.9 76.7 81.8 80.7 71.4 84.7 90.9 102.7 109.0 108.8 116.7 118.4 127.2 253.1 253.3 260.3 265.2 265.2 269.2 274.6 278.3 284.3 286.5 291.8 293.3 101.7 95.9 96.6 97.4 96.8 100.4 100.3 102.1 106.4 110.4 116.6 118.0 73.1 68.3 66.9 66.4 64.9 65.4 65.7 67.4 70.0 73.6 78.8 84.2 28.5 27.6 29.7 31.0 31.8 35.0 34.7 34.8 36.4 36.8 37.8 33.7 151.4 157.4 163.6 167.8 168.4 168.8 174.3 176.2 177.9 176.1 175.2 175.4 1,175.7 1,237.1 1,234.7 1,238.4 1,290.4 1,356.4 1,422.6 1,472.2 1,479.4 1,505.3 1,494.8 1,537.2 1,485.8 1,489.3 1,485.7 1,480.7 961.4 968.8 971.0 979.6 173.6 167.1 163.3 160.5 36.3 37.8 36.5 40.6 -10.2 -3.4 -1.3 -22.7 35.2 33.4 24.0 23.0 151.8 154.5 146.4 136.5 116.6 121.1 122.4 113.5 289.4 285.8 292.2 299.7 114.5 110.3 116.9 124.4 75.5 77.8 80.4 81.4 39.1 32.5 36.5 43.0 174.9 175.4 175.3 175.2 1,495.9 1,492.7 1,487.0 1,503.4 1,490.1 1,525.1 1,553.4 1,570.5 986.7 1,010.6 1,016.0 1,032.2 159.9 163.0 170.1 178.9 45.5 52.6 56.8 56.1 -15.4 -5.4 3.8 7.5 20.5 12.3 11.4 2.5 137.3 136.2 140.7 141.5 116.8 123.9 129.2 139.0 292.9 292.1 295.2 293.2 118.4 117.6 118.9 116.9 82.7 84.2 84.2 85.6 35.7 33.4 34.7 31.2 174.5 174.5 176.3 176.3 1,505.5 1,530.5 1,549.7 1,563.0 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1972 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Personal consumption expenditures Gross national product Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Gross private domestic investment Services Exports and imports of goods and services Government purchases of goods and services Federal Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed Exports Imports Total National defense Nondefense State and local 1972 . 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 . 1982 1983 p 100.00 105.75 115.08 125.79 132.34 140.05 150.42 163.42 178.42 195.14 206.88 215.63 100.0 105.7 116.4 125.3 131.7 139.3 149.1 162.5 179.0 194.1 205.3 213.4 100.0 101.7 108.2 117.3 123.9 129.2 136.4 145.0 156.2 167.3 174.8 178.6 100.0 108.5 123.4 132.5 137.2 143.6 153.4 169.9 188.1 202.5 209.0 213.8 100.0 104.7 113.0 121.6 129.6 139.3 150.0 162.3 178.8 195.8 211.6 224.5 100.0 103.8 115.4 132.2 138.6 146.3 157.2 170.8 186.2 201.9 209.7 206.9 100.0 109.1 120.3 ,131.0 140.7 158.0 178.3 200.5 218.5 233.5 240.2 247.4 100.0 112.7 134.8 149.6 155.3 161.9 172.6 192.5 212.9 230.8 236.0 241.7 100.0 116.7 164.6 179.6 185.6 205.5 214.1 246.1 289.4 293.4 278.9 272.3 100.0 106.3 114.9 126.0 133.5 142.8 153.1 164.8 185.2 207.7 222.0 233.3 100.0 106.6 115.1 124.9 132.4 141.9 152.7 166.0 187.5 2d9.3 227.7 237.8 100.0 105.6 114.2 128.2 135.7 144.6 153.8 162.5 180.8 204.5 210.0 222.0 100.0 107.0 118.0 129.4 138.3 148.4 159.7 173.7 191.5 208.1 222.9 236.6 1982: I 203.36 206.15 208.03 210.00 201.7 203.6 206.9 209.0 172.9 174.2 176.1 176.1 206.8 207.6 210.2 211.2 206.3 209.4 213.4 217.2 208.1 211.1 209.6 209.9 240.8 240.9 240.9 238.4 236.1 236.0 236.3 235.6 281.8 273.6 281.8 278.5 218.0 221.3 223.8 224.4 222.7 225.1 228.3 234.3 209.1 212.3 213.9 205.7 217.3 220.9 224.7 228.5 212.83 214.55 216.44 218.53 210.1 212.5 214.7 216.3 177.3 177.5 179.1 180.4 210.6 213.4 215.5 215.5 219.8 223.1 225.7 229.1 207.7 206.3 206.3 207.5 244.9 243.9 249.0 251.2 238.0 240.2 242.5 246.0 265.4 270.7 278.1 274.0 230.9 232.7 233.8 235.8 234.9 236.7 238.8 240.7 221.7 222.6 221.7 222.2 231.6 234.8 238.3 241.6 n. . . m IV .. 1983: I . n ffl jyp Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Personal consumption expenditures Gross national product Period 1972 .. 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979.. 1980 1981 1982 .. 1983P Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars .. .. 1982- I n m IV 1983- I n mp iv Implicit price deflator Chain price index 10.1 11.8 8.1 8.0 10.9 11.7 12.8 11.7 8.8 12.2 4.0 7.7 5.7 5.8 -.6 -1.2 5.4 5.5 5.0 2.8 -.3 2.6 -1.9 3.3 4.2 5.8 8.8 9.3 5.2 5.8 7.4 8.6 9.2 9.4 6.0 4,2 -1.4 6.6 2.7 2.5 55 1.0 -1.0 -1.3 8.2 13.3 11.5 8.6 2.6 9.7 7.6 4.5 Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) Chain price index Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) 5.8 4.2 5.3 4.7 5.9 4.7 9.6 10.2 9.4 9.9 11.0 11.1 11.8 11.9 10.7 11.3 7.3 8.4 7.5 7.2 7.5 7.8 7 2^2 5.6 5.0 4.5 2.7 .5 2.7 1.4 4.2 2.4 3.1 .9 3.6 3.7 5.7 10.1 7.6 5.1 5.8 7.0 9.0 10.2 8.4 5.8 4.0 5.0 4.0 6.5 4.1 3.6 6.1 10.4 7.7 5.3 6.0 7.3 9.3 10.7 9.0 5.9 4.2 5.2 3.9 6.4 5.1 3.5 6.1 10.4 7.8 5.3 6.2 7.4 9.7 11.1 9.2 5.7 4.1 4.8 3.5 6.7 5.1 3.4 4.3 4.7 4.5 5,2 15.1 6.5 9.9 2.9 10.0 2.2 6.5 2.2 4.6 4.2 3.1 2.3 4.7 4.2 4.5 1.6 4.9 4.4 4.5 4.0 6.0 9.4 9.1 5.8 6.3 7.8 9.5 9.8 9.5 6.4 4.3 4.3 5.6 3.7 3,8 4.1 6.0 9.1 9.2 5.7 6.1 7.6 8.9 8.9 9.4 6.5 4.4 5.6 5.2 5.9 5.0 5.5 3.3 3.6 3.9 3.6 4.3 4.5 4.6 NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. Implicit price deflator Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars) Period Current dollars 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 ... 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 p.. ., 1982: I n in .. IV 1983: I n HP 1 1972 dollars Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollars) * Total cost and profit 2 Capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment Indirect business taxes 3 Total Profits tax liability Profits after tax 4 Compensation per hour of all employees (dollars) 678.0 731.9 708.2 694.2 745.5 795.8 846.3 876.1 859.5 887.5 857.7 893.9 1.000 1.038 1.156 1.282 1.343 .418 .508 .617 .793 .960 2.072 2.146 0.092 .093 .112 .137 .141 .145 .155 .171 .198 .217 .245 .244 0.113 .114 .127 .140 .141 .141 .144 .149 .172 .199 .209 .220 0.659 .692 .786 .837 .878 .928 .998 1.094 1.218 1.302 1.397 1.420 0.028 .031 .042 .044 .040 .040 .044 .050 .065 .074 .076 .066 0.107 .107 .090 .124 .144 .163 .168 .154 .140 .169 .145 .195 0.049 .055 .059 .059 .071 .075 .079 .079 .078 .074 .048 .062 0.058 .053 ,030 .065 .073 .088 .089 .075 .062 .095 .097 .134 7.664 7.849 7.555 7.774 8.002 8.144 8.216 8.201 8.126 8.332 8.373 5.052 5.429 5.937 6.507 7.024 7.558 8.198 8.969 9.894 10.850 11.700 1,764.9 1,780.2 1,786,8 1,775.0 864.3 860.5 859.5 846.4 2.042 2.069 2.079 2,097 .236 .242 .247 .254 .204 .207 .209 .215 1.374 1.394 1.403 1.419 .080 .079 .072 .073 .148 .147 .148 .135 .053 .051 .049 .040 .095 .096 .099 .095 8.342 8.330 8.409 8.421 11.463 11,614 11.795 11,952 1,817.6 1,892.4 1,957.8 856.0 885.8 909.4 2.123 2.136 2.153 .252 .245 .241 .218 .223 .221 1.428 1.416 1.412 .070 .066 .065 .156 .187 .214 .049 .062 .070 .108 .125 .144 8.492 8.627 r 8.716 12.126 12.213 r 12.304 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1.972 dol- This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. Net interest Output per hour of all employees (1972 dollars) 678.0 759.4 818.9 890.0 1,001.3 1,128.4 1,276.2 1,416.8 1,540.7 1,739.9 1,776.7 1,918.4 lars, 2 Compensation of employees Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments 3 4 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies, With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] National income Period Compensation of employees1 Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Farm 1972 1973 1974 .... 1975 1976. 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 p... 1982: I ...; n.... m IV..- ....... 1983: I n m. . 718.0 801.3 963.6 1,086.2 1,160.7 1,239.4 1,379.2 1,550.5 1,760.3 1,966.7 2,116.6 2,373.0 2,450.4 2,646.9 1,036.3 1,152.1 1,301.1 1,458.1 1,599.6 1,769.2 1,865.7 1,990.1 2,419.7 2,448.9 2,458.9 2,474.0 1,834.2 1,859.9 1,879.5 1,889.0 2,528.5 2,612.8 2,686.9 1,923.7 1,968.7 2,011.8 2,056.0 877.5 931.4 IV*... 1 Nonfarm Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total 96.6 108.3 94.9 110.5 138.1 167.3 192.4 194.8 175.4 192.3 164.8 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) 226.3 162.0 166.8 168,5 161.9 181.8 218.2 248.4 Inventory valuation adjustment Profits before tax Total 21.0 22.6 23.5 23,0 23.5 24.8 26.6 27.9 31.5 41.4 49.9 54.8 47.4 49.0 50.9 52.3 54.1 54.8 53.9 56.2 58.1 61.0 62.2 65.4 75.0 84.8 92.2 100.2 95.6 89.7 87.4 107.6 83.7 88.1 87.8 90.2 98.4 106.2 111.2 114.4 18.7 32.8 26.5 24.6 19.1 19.1 26.3 31.9 21.8 30.5 21.5 21.0 27.4 16.8 15.8 26.0 22.2 21.0 15.5 25.3 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment 94.0 105.6 96.7 120.6 151.6 178.5 205.1 100.6 125.6 136.7 132.1 166.3 194.7 229.1 209.6 252.7 234.6 227.0 191.7 203.3 174.2 165.9 195.5 167.7 170.3 168.3 157.2 168.0 192.7 210.8 205.3 173.2 178.8 177.3 167.5 169.7 203.3 229.1 Capital consumption adjustment -6.6 -20.0 -40.0 -11.6 . -14.7 -16.2 -24.0 -43.1 -42.9 -23.6 -8.4 -9.8 -5.5 -8.5 -9.0 -10.3 -1.7 -10.6 -18.3 -8.5 2.7 2.7 -1.8 -10.1 -13.5 -11.3 -12.7 -14.8 -16.3 -11.0 — 1.1 30.8 -5.6 -3.5 .1 4.7 13.9 25.6 37.6 46.3 Net interest 51.2 60.2 76.1 84.5 87.2 102.5 121.7 153.8 192.6 249.9 261.1 247.2 265.0 268.3 256.4 254.7 248.3 243.8 246.1 250.4 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1972 1973.. .. 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 . 1980 1981 . 1982 1983 p 1982: I n III............ 1983: IV,. I II. . Ill IV" Total durable goods 976.4 1,084.3 1,204.4 1,346.5 1,507.2 1,668.1 1,857.2 1.991.9 2,158.6 111.1 123.3 121.5 132.2 156.8 178.2 200.2 213.4 214.7 236.1 244.5 278.6 1,938.9 1,972.8 2,008.8 2,046.9 239.4 242.9 243.4 252.1 2,073.0 2,147.0 2,181.1 2,233.1 258.5 277.7 282.8 295.2 737.1- 812.0 888.1 Motor vehicles and parts 52.4 - '. 41.7 57.1 47.1 50.4 50.6 55.8 53.5 72.6 59.1 65.7 84.8 95.7 72.8 96.6 81.8 90.7 86.3 101.6 93.3 93.5 109.9 101.8 132.8 106.4 91.7 93.9 107.6 109.4 93.5 94.9 116.1 118.4 97.3 100.8 133.9 102.9 135.6 106.4 143.2 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Furniture and household equipment Retail sales of new passenger cars (millions of units) Nondurable goods Durable goods Total personal consumption expenditures Other Total nondurable goods Food 16.9 19.2 20.5 22.9 25.2 27.7 31.7 35.1 37,7" 41.2 41.1 44.0 300.6 333.4 373.4 407.3 441.7 478.8 528.2 600.0 668.8 733.9 761.0 804.3 154.9 172.1 193.7 213.6 230.6 249.8 275.9 311.6 345.1 375.9 396.9 422.5 41.3 41.4 40.5 41.0 749.7 754.7 766.6 773.0 388.1 394.7 400.4 404.5 42.9 43.1 44.3 45.7 777.1 799.6 814.8 825.9 411.7 419.6 426.4 432.4 Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil 55.4 61.4 64.8 69.6 75.3 82.6 92.4 99.1 104.6 115.3 119.0 125.6 118.4 119.0 119.2 119.6 120.0 126.4 125.1 130.9 25.4 28.6 36.6 40.4 44.0 48.1 51.2 66.6 84.8 94.6 91.5 90.6 94.0 89.6 91.3 91.1 87.3 90.3 93.1 91.6 Services Other 64.9 71.2 78.2 83.7 91.9 98.2 108.8 122.8 134.3 148.1 153.5 165.7 149.2 151.5 155.6 157.9 158.1 163.3 170.2 171.1 325.3 355.2 393.2 437.0 485.7 547.4 618.0 693.7 784.5 887.1 986.4 1,075.7 949.7 975.2 998.9 1,021.8 1,037.4 1,069.7 1,083.5 1,112.0 Domestics Imports 9.3 9.6 7.4 7.0 8.5 9.0 9.2 8.2 6.6 6.2 5.8 6.8 5.8 5.7 5.6 6.0 6.1 6.9 7.0 7.2 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.7 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income increased $24.1 billion (annual rate) in December, following a rise of $20.3 billion in November. Wages and salaries rose $9.9 billion in December compared to a rise of $4.4 billion in November. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,200 3,200 2,800 1983 • SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1974. 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 ... 1983 p 1982- Dec 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July AufiT Sept Oct r Nov r Total personal income Wage and salary disbursements l 1,168.6 1,265.0 1,391.2 1,540.4 1,732.7 1,951.2 2,165.3 2,435.0 2,578.6 2,741.8 765.7 806.4 889.9 983.2 1,106.3 1,237.6 1,356.7 1,493.2 1,568.1 1,664.4 2,645.0 1,591.8 2,652.6 2,650.5 2,670.1 2,689.0 2,719.3 2,732.6 2,747.6 2,756.4 2,781.6 2,812.8 2,833.1 2,857.2 1,608.9 1,606.3 1,616.8 1,632.1 1,652.2 1,660.9 1,673.5 1,680.5 1,691.8 1,710.5 1,714.8 1,724.7 Proprietors' income 3 Other labor income l 2 55.8 64.5 75.9 89.4 102.5 114.9 128.0 143.5 156.6 173.4 161.2 162.6 164.2 166.0 168.1 170.1 172.2 174.3 176.3 178.4 180.6 182.6 184.9 Farm 26.5 24.6 19.1 19.1 26.3 31.9 21.8 30.5 21.5 21.0 26.1 22.9 21.3 22.3 22.1 21.4 19.4 16.6 14.9 15.0 21.2 25.6 29.1 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. * Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workmen's compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Nonfarm 62.2 65.4 75.0 84.8 92.2 100.2 95.6 89.7 87.4 107.6 92.5 96.7 97.8 100.8 103.1 106.6 109.0 109.9 110.9 113.0 114.1 114.1 115.0 Rental income of persons 4 23.5 23.0 23.5 24.8 26.6 27.9 31.5 41.4 49.9 54.8 51.0 53.8 54.1 54.3 54.6 54.8 55.0 55.3 50.8 55.8 56.0 56.2 56.5 Personal dividend income 29.1 29.9 36.5 39.6 45.3 50.8 56.8 62.8 66.4 70.5 68.3 68.7 68.9 68.9 69.0 69.4 69.5 70.2 70.9 71.6 72.3 72.9 73.4 Personal interest income 112.4 123.2 132.5 152.8 179.4 218.7 266.0 341.3 366.2 366.3 364.3 360.0 356.0 355.7 355.0 356.9 359.4 364.4 370.2 375.2 378.3 380.9 383.7 Transfer payments 5 141.2 178.3 194.3 207.9 223.8 250.3 297.6 337.2 374.5 403.5 403.0 395.4 398.1 402.0 402.7 406.7 406.7 403.5 402.2 401.9 402.1 408.2 412.3 4 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance 47.9 50.4 55.5 61.1 69.8 81.1 88.7 104.6 112.0 119.5 113.1 116.6 116.2 116.8 117.6 118.8 119.5 120.1 120.3 121.1 122.2 122.4 122.4 Nonfarm personal income 6 1,131.8 1,229.1 1,359.3 1,506.5 1,689.7 1,899.3 2,119.5 2,377.0 2,527.6 2,691.2 2,589.4 2,600.2 2,599.7 2,618.4 2,637.5 2,668.5 2,683.8 2,701.4 2,711.8 2,736.7 2,761.6 2,777.4 2,798.0 With capital consumption adjustment. Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. 5 6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable income rose again in the fourth quarter of 1983. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,600 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,COO 1,800 1,600 4,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 1984 1976 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Personal income Period Less: Personal tax and nontax payments COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Equals: Disposable personal income Less: Personal1 outlays Equals: Personal saving Per capita disposable personal income Per capita personal consumption expenditures Current dollars Current dollars 1972 dollars Billions of dollars 1972 . 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978... 1979 1980.. 1981 1982... 1983 p. . 951.4 ,065.2 ,168.6 ,265.0 ,391.2 ,540.4 1,732.7 1,951.2 2,165.3 2,435.0 2,578.6 2,741.9 141.0 150.7 170.2 168.9 196.8 226.4 258.7 301.0 336.5 387.4 402.1 406.3 810.3 914.5 998.3 1,096.1 1,194.4 1,314.0 1,474.0 1,650.2 1,828.9 2,047.6 2,176.5 2,335.6 1972 dollars 52.6 79.0 85.1 94.3 82.5 78.0 89.4 96.7 110.2 135.3 125.4 113.1 3,860 4,315 4,667 5,075 5,477 5,965 6,621 7,331 8,032 8,906 9,377 9,968 3,860 4,080 4,009 4,051 4,158 4,280 4,441 4,512 4,487 4,587 4,567 4,671 Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population (thou-2 sands) Percent Dollars 757.7 835.5 913.2 1,001.8 1,111.9 1,236.0 1,384.6 1,553.5 1,718.7 1,912.4 2,051.1 2,222.5 Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income 3,511 3,831 4,152 4,521 4,972 5,468 6,048 6,695 7,326 8,078 8,581 9,213 3,511 3,623 3,566 3,609 3,774 3,924 4,057 4,121 4,092 4,162 4,180 4,317 2.9 5.7 -1.7 1.0 2.6 2.9 3.8 1.6 -.6 2.2 -.4 2.3 8.6 8.5 8.6 6.9 5.9 6.1 5.9 6.0 6.6 5.8 4.8 209,924 211,939 213,898 215,981 218,086 220,289 222,629 225,106 227,694 229,916 232,118 234,297 6.5 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1982: I n m IV 1983: I ... n m IV".... 2,528.1 2,563.2 2,591.3 2,632.0 400.2 404.2 399.8 404.1 2,127.9 2,159.0 2,191.5 2,227.8 1,997.0 2,031.9 2,068.4 2,107.0 130.8 127.1 123.0 120.8 9,199 9,315 9,430 9,562 4,562 4,574 4,558 4,576 8,382 8,511 8,644 8,785 4,156 4,180 4,178 4,204 -4.3 1.1 -1.4 1.6 6.1 5.9 5.6 5.4 231,304 231,790 232,387 232,990 2,657.7 2,713.6 2,761.9 2,834.2 401.8 412.6 400.1 410.6 2,255.9 2,301.0 2,361.7 2,423.6 2,134.2 2,209.5 2,245.9 2,300.1 121.7 91.5 115.8 123.5 9,661 9,834 10,069 10,307 4,599 4,629 4,690 4,764 8,878 9,176 9,299 9,497 4,226 4,319 4,331 4,390 2.0 2.6 5.4 6.5 5.4 4.0 4.9 5.1 233,501 233,984 234,564 235,138 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). 2 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the fourth quarter of 1983, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income rose $16.5 billion (annual rate) and net farm income rose $14.8 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 200 160 160 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 -NET FARM INCOME- 40 40 /N 20 % i I I % i i i i \_1 20 I %^ 10 1977 1976 I I I i i i 1979 1980 1978 I 1981 1982 I I 1983 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 10 1984 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from farming Net farm income Gross farm income Period Cash marketing receipts Total1 Total 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 * .. . 1982: I n m IV 1983: I rr n. m pr IV 1 Livestock and products Current dollars 1967 dollars 3 102.9 108.7 127.2 150.4 150.1 167.1 162.2 158.6 95.4 96.2 112.9 131.8 140.5 142.3 144.6 142.4 46.3 47.6 59.2 68.6 67.8 69.2 70.2 70.7 49.0 48.6 53.7 63.2 72.7 73.1 74.4 71.7 -1.5 1.1 .8 4.9 -5.3 7.6 -1.9 -8.8 82.7 88.9 99.5 118.1 128.6 137.0 140.1 136.0 20.1 19.8 27.7 32.3 21.5 30.1 22.1 22.6 11.8 10.9 14.2 14.8 8.7 11.0 7.6 7.6 168.4 158.5 155.9 165.8 147.6 142.0 142.3 146.3 70.7 71.0 70.2 68.9 76.9 71.0 72.1 77.4 2.0 -1.7 -3.5 -4.2 141.0 141.5 140.3 137.6 27.4 17.0 15.6 28.2 9.7 5.9 5.3 9.6 156.4 153.1 154.1 170.6 144.5 141.3 145.0 138.8 71.5 70.8 70.1 70.3 73.0 70.5 74.9 68.5 136.6 135.1 135.3 137.0 19.8 18.0 18.8 33.6 6.7 6.1 6.3 11.1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. Crops Value of inventory changes 2 Production expenses 3 -8.6 -9.9 -12.3 -4.4 Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index (Department of Labor). Source: Department of Agriculture, except as noted. CORPORATE PROFITS In the third quarter, according to current estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $25.8 billion (annual rate) from their second quarter level and after-tax profits rose $16.9 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 320 320 40 -# 40 1975 1976 1977 1983 ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment 1 Profits after tax Domestic industries Nonfinancial Period Total 2 Total 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 p 1982: I n.. m IY 1983: I n m IV p 1 2 Financial Total3 Tax liability Wholesale and retail trade Total Dividends Undistributed profits Inventory valuation adjustment 94.0 105.6 96.7 120.6 151.6 178.5 205.1 209.6 191.7 203.3 165.9 195.5 167.7 170.3 168.3 157.2 85.3 92.0 80.4 107.6 137.4 163.4 185.4 179.0 161.9 179.7 144.1 173.5 147.0 148.5 147.6 133.1 15.3 15.9 15.0 11.8 17.1 23.1 31.0 30.3 26.9 20.3 20.9 31.4 15.5 20.4 22.2 25.5 70.0 76.0 65.4 95.8 120.3 140.3 154.4 148.6 134.9 159.4 123.2 142.1 131.5 128.1 125.4 107.6 40.7 45.5 39.0 52.6 69.2 78.3 86.9 85.6 72.9 86.7 59.0 69.4 60.9 61.4 65.5 48.3 13.4 13.9 12.5 21.3 22.4 26.6 26.9 27.1 23.6 32.8 27.6 34.2 30.2 27.4 25.2 27.5 100.6 125.6 136.7 132.1 166.3 194.7 229.1 252.7 234.6 227.0 174.2 205.3 173.2 178.8 177.3 167.5 41.6 49.0 51.6 50.6 63.8 72.7 83.2 87.6 84.8 82.8 59.2 75.7 60.3 61.4 60.8 54.0 58.9 76.6 85.1 81.5 102.5 122.0 145.9 165.1 149.8 144.1 115.1 129.6 112.9 117.4 116.5 113.5 24.4 27.0 29.9 30.8 37.4 40.8 47.0 52.7 58.6 64.7 68.7 73.3 67.7 67.8 68.8 70.4 34.5 49.6 55.2 50.7 65.1 81.2 98.9 112.4 91.2 79.5 46.4 56.3 45.2 49.5 47.7 43.1 -6.6 -20.0 -40.0 -11.6 -14.7 -16.2 -24.0 -43.1 -42.9 -23.6 -8.4 -9.8 -5.5 -8.5 -9.0 -10.3 168.0 192.7 210.8 147.8 172.2 187.4 29.8 33.8 31.9 118.0 138.4 155.5 53.7 68.1 78.2 27.8 33.9 36.7 169.7 203.3 229.1 61.5 76.0 84.9 108.2 127.2 144.1 71.4 72.0 73.7 75.9 36.7 55.2 70.4 — 1.7 -10.6 -18.3 -8.5 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. Manufacturing Profits before tax 3 Includes industries not shown separately. -. _. . _, „ ._ . . , . Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to preliminary estimates for the fourth quarter of 1983, business fixed investment rose $20.2 billion ((annual rate) and residential investment outlays fell $0.7 billion. There was a $17.7 billion increase in inventories following an increase of $8.5 billion in the third quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 600 600 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 500 /L. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT 100 100 -100 -100 1975 1983 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross private domestic investment Period 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 p 1982: I n m IV 1983: I n mp IV ;. . Nonresidential fixed investment Total Change in business inventories Residential fixed investment Total Nonfarm structures Farm structures Producers' durable equipment Total Nonfarm 195.0 229.8 228.7 206.1 257.9 324.1 386.6 423.0 401.9 474.9 414.5 471.3 121.0 143.3 156.6 157.7 174.1 205.2 248.9 290.2 308.8 352.2 348.3 347.7 44.1 51.0 55.9 55.4 58.8 64.4 78.7 98.3 110.9 133.4 141.9 131.4 76.9 92.3 100.7 102.3 115,3 140.8 170.2 191.9 197.9 218.8 206.4 216.3 63.8 68.0 57.9 55.3 72.0 95.8 111.2 118.6 102.9 104.3 90.8 130.5 61.5 65.6 54.8 52.4 68.8 92.0 107.0 114.0 98.1 99.8 86.0 125.5 0.7 .7 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.7 1,7 1.8 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.6 10.2 18.5 14.1 -6.9 11.8 23.0 26.5 14.3 -9.8 18.5 -24.5 -6.9 9.6 15.2 16.0 -10.5 13.9 21.9 25.4 8.6 -4.5 10.9 -23.1 -1.2 422.9 432.5 425.3 377.4 361.3 352.7 342.3 337.0 144.7 144.2 140.0 138.6 216.5 208.5 202.2 198.4 87.3 91.0 87.9 96.8 83.2 86.1 83.4 91.2 .9 1.6 1.3 2.3 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 -25.7 -11.2 -4.9 -56.4 -27.6 8.8 -2.3 -53.7 404.1 450.1 501.1 529.8 332.1 336.3 351.0 371.2 132.9 127.4 130.9 134.5 199.3 208.8 220.2 236.8 111.3 128.4 141.5 140.8 106.7 123.3 136.3 135.6 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 -39.4 14.5 8.5 17.7 -39.0 -10.3 18.4 26.0 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Structures Producers' durable equipment EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT—NONFARM BUSINESS According to the Commerce Department October-December surveys, nonfarm business spending for new plant and< equipment for the year 1984 is expected to be nearly 10 percent above the 1983 level; spending in 1983 is expected to be 4 percent below 1982. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 400 400 TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT X 300 300 200 200 NONMANUFACTURING MANUFACTURING TOO 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 _LJ_ 1976 1977 1979 1978 1981 1980 1982 1984 1983 -I/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW SOURCE.-DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Plant and equipment Period Total Plant Nonmanufaeturing Manufacturing Equipment Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Mining Transportation Public utilities Trade and services 1 Communication and other 2 Starts of plant and equipment projects, manufacturing 3 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 ..... ... 1981 1982 1983 4 1984 4 171.45 198.08 231.24 270.46 295.63 321.49 316.43 303.20 333 32 71.12 80.19 92.63 105.75 117.57 133.35 134.58 100.33 117.89 1-38.60 164.68 178.06 188.14 181.86 59.95 69.22 79.72 98.68 115.81 126.79 119.68 111.18 125.98 28.47 34.04 40.43 51.07 58.91 61.84 56.44 51.45 59.87 31.47 35.18 39.29 47.61 56.90 64.95 63.23 59.74 66.11 111.50 128.87 151.52 171.77 179.81 194.70 196.75 192.01 207.34 7.44 9.24 10.21 11.38 13.51 16.86 15.45 12.00 13.48 8.89 9.40 10.68 12.35 12.09 12.05 11.95 11.25 10.96 22.37 26.79 29.95 33.96 35.44 38.40 41.95 42.62 44.17 49.30 56.54 68.66 79.26 81.79 86.33 86.95 88.02 96.35 23.51 26.90 32.02 34.83 36.99 41.06 40.46 38.11 42.38 59.39 77.73 88.41 113.50 123,58 135.61 104.35 1982: HE IV 313.76 303.18 134.43 127.32 179.33 175.86 118.26 110.23 56.61 50.51 61.65 59.72 195.51 192.95 14.57 13.41 11.29 12.33 43.02 43.00 86.88 84.36 39.75 39.84 25.31 23.62 1983: I II 125.40 125.60 130.59 167.62 167.86 174,12 109.86 108.79 111.12 114.97 50.74 48.48 53.06 53.52 59.12 60.31 58.06 61.45 183.17 184.67 193.59 206.62 12.03 10.91 11.93 13.14 11.04 10.88 11.00 12.10 41.61 41.48 42.22 . 45.17 82.38 85.85 91.06 92.79 36.11 35.54 37.38 43.42 23.35 27.71 29.98 IV 293.03 293.46 304.70 321.60 1984: I 44 II 323.07 325 42 119.00 120.96 57.18 58.09 61.81 62.86 204.08 204.47 12.25 13.68 10.78 11.42 41.82 42.30 96.98 95.03 42.25 42.03 in 4 1 Wholesale and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and personal, business, and prolessional services. 2 "Other" consists of construction; social services and membership organizations; and forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services. 10 3 4 Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during given period, Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late October-December 1983, corrected for biases, Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE Seasonally adjusted civilian employment rose 249,000 in January and unemployment fell 169,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 116 MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 1976 1984 *16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted] Period Resident Armed Forces NSA NSA 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1982: Dec 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1984: Jan 163,541 166,460 169,349 171,775 173,939 175,891 174,864 175,021 175,169 175,320 175,465 175,622 175,793 175,970 176,122 176,297 176,474 176,636 176,809 177,219 1,631 1,597 1,604 1,645 1,668 1,676 1,665 1,667 1,664 1,664 1,671 1,669 1,668 1,664 1,682 1,695 1,695 1,685 1,688 1,686 Labor force including . o resident Armed Forces 103,882 106,559 108,544 110,315 111,872 113,226 112,538 112,344 112,352 112,399 112,646 112,619 113,573 113,489 113,799 113,924 113,561 113,720 113,824 113,901 Employment including resident Armed Forces 97,679 100,421 100,'907 102,042 101,194 102,510 100,644 100,821 100,836 100,980 101,277 101,431 102,411 102,889 103,166 103,571 103,665 104,291 104,629 104,876 Nonagrieultural Civilian labor force 102,251 104,962 106',940 108,670 1 10^204 111,550 110,873 110,677 110,688 110,735 110,975 110,950 111,905 111,825 112,117 112,229 111,866 112,035 112,136 112,215 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find full•time work, etc. 2 * Labor force as percent of noninstitutional population (both including resident Armed Forces). 3 Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population. Unemployment Civilian employment Noninstitutional population including resident Armed Forces Total Agricultural 96,048 3,387 98,824 99,303 100,397 99,526 100,834 98,979 99,154 99,172 99,316 99,606 99,762 100,743 101,225 101,484 101,876 101,970 102,606 102,941 103,190 3,347 3,364 3,368 3,401 3,383 3,429 3,420 3,415 3,386 3,392 3,374 3,479 3,499 3,449 3,308 3,240 3,257 3,356 3,271 Total 92,661 95,477 95,938 97,030 96,125 97,450 95,550 95,734 95,757 95,930 96,214 96,388 97,264 97,726 98,035 98,568 98,730 99,349 99,585 99,918 Part-time for economic reasons 1 3,298 3,373 4,064 4,499 5,852 5,997 6,367 6,678 6,362 6,169 6,077 5,965 5,886 5,700 5,866 6,027 5,724 5,848 5,712 5,943 Total 6,202 6,137 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 11,894 11,523 11,516 11,419 11,369 11,188 11,162 10,600 10,633 10,353 9,896 9,429 9,195 9,026 15 weeks and over 1,414 1,241 1,871 2,285 3,485 4,210 4,660 4,623 4,613 4,587 4,396 4,510 4,486 4,398 4,078 3,889 3,655 3,527 3,369 3,201 Labor force participation rate (percent) Total 2 Civilian 3 63.5 64.0 64.1 64.2 64.3 63.2 63.7 64.4 64.4 64.2 64.1 64.1 64.2 64.1 64.6 64.5 64.6 64.6 64.3 64.4 64.4 64.3 63.8 63.9 64.0 64.0 64.0 63.8 63.8 63.8 63.9 63.8 64.3 64.2 64.3 64.3 64.0 64.0 64.0 63.9 NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1979. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES The seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate, which includes resident Armed Forces in the labor force, fell to 7.9 percent in January from 8.1 percent in December. The unemployment rate for all civilian workers fell to 8.0 percent in January from 8.2 percent in December. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 15 10 10 5 m* 1980 1980 1984 1981 1982 1983 1984 * UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) Period Unemployment rate, all workers l All civilian workers Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over 4.3 4.2 5.9 6.3 6.0 5.7 Both sexes 16-19 years Black and other White 7.3 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces. 2 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. 11.1 12.2 18.9 18.2 18.6 18.7 18.5 18.6 17.9 17.9 17.3 16.7 16.1 16.3 20.7 19.8 20.1 20.7 20.3 20.3 19.6 19.8 18.9 18.3 17.7 17.8 10.1 10.1 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.4 9.1 9.1 8.8 8.5 8.1 7.9 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.7 6.2 6.3 6.1 5.7 5.5 5.2 13.2 13.2 13.3 13.0 12.7 12.5 11.8 11.8 12.0 11.4 10.5 10.9 10.3 10.4 10.2 10.2 10.0 9.7 9.4 9.3 9.1 8.7 8.2 8.0 10.7 10.1 10.6 10.5 10.9 11.8 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.8 9.8 11.7 11.9 11.7 11.5 11.5 11.1 10.7 10.7 10.5 10.0 9.7 9.4 15.6 16.7 7.6 5.0 10.7 7.8 9.2 9.2 6.9 8.0 12 10.7 19.4 7.9 1 13.3 7.1 1984: Jan... May... June.. July.. Aug... Sept .. Oct.... Nov... 7.5 9.1 9.2 9.1 8.9 8.8 8.6 8.2 8.2 8.0 7.7 7.3 7.1 Dec ... Apr ... 10.5 23.1 22.7 23.6 23.4 23.0 23.6 22.7 22.8 21.8 21.6 20.2 20.1 9.7 9.8 9.6 9.7 9.5 9.1 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.2 7.8 7.4 Mar... 20.9 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.5 8.5 8.6 7.9 8.0 7.8 7.5 7.2 7.1 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.5 9.5 9.2 8.8 8.4 8.2 Feb ... 9.3 9.2 6.9 7.3 9.6 9^5 18.9 10.3 10.2 10.2 10.1 9.9 9.8 9.3 9.3 9.1 8.7 8.3 8.1 1983: Jan... 6.5 6.3 7.9 8.5 11.0 10.9 9.2 10.4 11.7 12.2 9.6 9.1 Parttime workers 9.0 8.8 8.8 9.4 10.5 10.4 24.3 10.0 10.6 Fulltime workers 5.6 5.3 8.6 8.4 10.7 1982: Dec... 1980 1981 1982 1983 Women who maintain families 8.5 8.3 5.6 5.5 6.9 7.3 8.8 8.9 5.8 7.1 7.6 9.7 9.6 Married men, spouse present Labor force time lost (percent) 2 2.8 2.8 4.2 4.3 6.5 6.5 12.8 12.3 14.3 15.6 18.9 19.5 6.4 6.8 8.3 8.1 6.1 5.8 7.0 7.5 9.5 9.5 Experienced wage and salary workers 11.9 11.3 13.1 14.2 17.3 17.8 5.2 5.1 6.3 6.7 6.0 Black Total 16.4 16.1 17.8 19.6 23.2 22.4 1978 1979 By selected groups By race By sex and age NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1979. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS |n January, the percentages of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 1526 weeks fell, and the percentages out of work for 5-14 weeks and for 27 weeks and over rose. Both measures of average duration of unemployment—the mean and the median—rose in January. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 70 DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT 60 60 JOB LOSERS AN / ""'A 50 M ±« 40 V 50 LESS THAN 5 WEEKS 5-14 WEEKS 30 % v \ / W 3 ^ 40 /^^ VA .V%w-^ 30 REENTRANTS 20 20 NEW ENTRANTS 10 10 / JOB LEAVERS Illllllllll 0 lllHll|l|l( Mlllllllll 1980 1981 1982 Illllllllll 1983 1980 1984 1981 Illllllllll Illllllllll 1982 1983 1984 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Reason for unemployment: percent distribution * Duration of unemployment Unemployment (thousands) Period Percent distribution * Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks State programs Number of weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Median Job losers Job leavers Reentrants New entrants Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) 2 Special unemployment benefit claims (unadjusted) 3 Weekly average, thousands 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 6,137 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 48.1 43.1 41.7 36.4 33.3 31.7 32.3 30.7 31.0 27.4 11.5 13.8 13.6 16.0 15.4 8.7 10.7 14.0 16.6 23.9 10.8 11.9 13.7 15.6 20.0 5.4 6.5 6.9 8.7 10.1 42.9 51.7 51.6 58.7 58.4 14.3 11.7 11.2 7.9 -J-7 29.4 25.2 25.4 22.3 22.5 13.3 11.4 11.9 11.1 11.3 2,434 3,350 3,047 r 4,061 388 488 460 583 2,592 3,837 3,410 4,590 1982- Dec 11,894 32.5 28.5 17.3 21.6 18.4 10.4 59.8 6.9 22.5 10.8 4,428 546 5,074 708 1983' Jan. . Feb.... Mar Apr May T * June July i 3 Aufir Sent Oct Nov Dec 11,523 11,516 11,419 11,369 11,188 11,162 10,600 10,633 10,353 9,896 9,429 9,195 31.2 32.4 31.3 32.3 32.2 32.8 32.8 34.1 35.9 35.5 35.1 36.5 28.8 27.5 28.8 28.2 27.2 26.7 26.4 27.7 26.7 27.6 27.6 27.1 16.9 16.7 16.5 15.2 16.0 14.4 16.7 15.0 13.3 13.9 14.1 13.9 23.1 23.3 24.1 24.3 24.7 26.1 24.2 23.3 24.1 23.1 23.1 22.5 19.4 19.1 19.2 19.2 20.2 21.4 21.3 19.9 20.2 20.1 20.2 19.6 11.3 9.8 10.4 10.8 11.9 10.8 10.1 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.4 9.0 59.8 60.3 60.2 59.8 60.2 58.4 58.6 57.7 57.1 56.5 55.0 54.1 7.3 7.3 7.8 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.5 8.3 8.7 9.1 9.2 22.4 22.0 21.6 22.0 21.4 21.8 22.7 23.3 22.7 23.4 23.7 24.2 10.5 10.4 10.4 11.0 11.1 12.6 11.6 11.4 11.9 11.4 12.1 12.4 3,941 3,907 3,894 3,832 3,586 3,329 3,110 2,991 2,896 2,848 2,799 2,729 509 485 493 484 458 411 384 414 393 403 405 397 5,459 5,437 5,134 4,642 3,947 3,481 3,275 2,917 2,580 2,478 2,620 936 953 691 1,117 1,445 1,086 849 737 655 522 901 731 9,026 36.0 28.4 13.0 22.6 20.5 9.2 53.6 9.0 24.4 13.1 . 1984- Jan 1 2 , Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding. Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program. 3 Federal supplemental compensation program. NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted unemployment data revised beginning 1979. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricurtural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 287,000 in January. MIUIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) 22 WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 90 20 ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 80 18 16 70 14 SERVICE-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 60 22 20 50 18 i mil nn i 40 CONSTRUCTION GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES I I I I I I 111 I 1980 1981 1984 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 "SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers; l seasonally adjusted] Service-producing industries Goods-producing industries Period Total nonagricultural employ- Manufacturing Total 2 Construction Total Durable goods Services Federal State and local 65?,689 66^331 4,724 4,975 5,160 5,298 5,340 5,454 16,252 17,112 17,890 18,619 19,064 19,680 2,753 2,773 2,866 2,772 2,739 2,752 12,919 13,174 13,375 13,259 13,064 12,991 7,634 65,604 5,008 20,256 5,367 19,215 2,747 13,011 10,594 10,608 10,617 10,689 10,788 10,844 10,961 11,022 11,081 11,235 11,320 11,405 7,650 7,637 7,650 7,687 7,705 7,738 7,772 7,771 7,790 7,829 7,852 7,870 65,699 65,697 65,784 65,931 66,074 66,326 66,428 65,918 66,916 66,916 67,044 67,171 4,979 4,966 4,963 4,988 4,993 4,992 4,984 4,341 5,031 5,019 5,019 5,005 20,355 20,343 20,350 20,329 20,356 20,494 20,529 20,580 20,612 20,666 20,718 20,773 5,374 5,384 5,391 5,423 5,435 5,451 5,465 5,488 5,499 5,503 5,515 5,524 19,238 19,262 19,356 19,478 19,546 19,668 19,770 19,835 19,913 19,956 20,016 20,101 2,748 2,742 2,742 2,738 2,756 2,742 2,738 2,746 2,778 2,761 2,763 2,771 13,005 13,000 12,982 12,975 12,988 12,979 12,942 12,928 13,083 13,011 13,013 12,995 11,463 7,912 67,258 5,031 20,837 5,540 20,143 2,760 - 12,948 - 25,585 26,461 25,658 25,497 23,907 23,646 4,229 4,463 4,346 4,188 3,911 3,947 20,505 21,040 20*285 20470 18,853 18,678 12,274 12J60 1982: Dec 88,665 23,061 3,815 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug . Sept Oet r . Nov r Dec* 88,885 88,746 88,814 89,090 89,421 89,844 90,152 89,748 90,851 91,084 91,355 91,583 23,186 23,049 23,030 23,159 23,347 23,518 23,724 23,830 23,935 24,168 24,311 24,412 1984: Janp..... 91,870 24,612 61,113 63,363 64J48 12,109 11,100 10^932 8,231 8,280 8^098 8,061 7,753 7J46 18,193 10,559 3,905 3,790 3,757 3,786 3,860 3,933 3,974 4,014 4,038 4,060 4,094 4,091 18,244 18,245 18,267 18,376 18,493 18,582 18,733 18,793 18,871 19,064 19,172 19,275 4,194 19,375 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces, Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial dis- Government Finance, insurance, and real estate 19,542 20,192 20^310 20,547 20,401 20,512 86,697 89,823 90406 91,156 89,596 89,977 14 Total Wholesale and retail trade 4,923 5,136 5^146 5,165 5,081 4,940 1978 1979 .. 1980 .. 1981 1982 1983 p 1 Nondurable goods Transportation and public utilities putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. ^ Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average gross hourly earnings Average weekly hours Period 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979... 1980 1981. 1982 1983 p 1982: Dec 1983: Jan. Peb Mar T Manufacturing Total private nonagrieultural 1 Total r - June July * J Auff Sept Oct r Nov r Dee p .. 1984: Jan p Overtime 34.8 39.0 35.1 34.5 34.8 34.9 35.1 35.1 35.0 35.0 35.2 35.3 35.2 35.3 39.7 39.2 39.5 40.1 40.0 40.1 40.2 40.3 40.8 40.6 40.6 40.5 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.3 3.0 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 35.6 40.9 3.4 39.5 40.1 40.3 40.4 40.2 39.7 39.8 38.9 40.1 36.1 36.1 36.0 35.8 35.7 35.3 35.2 34.8 35.0 . Total private nonagricultural 1 Manufacturing Adjusted hourly earnings index — total private nonagricultural 2 Percent change from a year earlier 4 5 Index, 1977 — 100 Current dollars 1977 dollars 3 Current dollars 8.4 7.2 7.6 8.2 7.9 9.0 9.1 6.8 4.6 1977 dollars -0.7 1.4 1.0 .5 31 -4.0 10 $4.83 5.22 5.68 6.17 6.70 7.27 7.99 8.50 8.84 86.7 92.9 100.0 108.2 116.8 127.3 138.9 148.3 155.1 97.6 99.0 100.0 100.5 97.4 93.5 92.6 93.3 94.7 7.82 8.63 151.9 94.1 6.0 .8 1.5 2.0 7.88 7.91 7.91 7.95 7.97 8.00 8.03 7.98 8.08 8.13 8.13 8.16 8.68 8.76 8.75 8.78 8.79 8.82 8.85 8.84 8.87 8.94 9.00 9.01 152.7 153.4 153.4 154.0 154.6 154.8 155.2 155.0 155.9 156.8 156.9 157.5 94.7 95.3 95.0 94.8 94.7 94.8 94.7 94.0 94.2 94.4 94.3 94.5 5.4 5.7 5.4 5.2 4.8 4.6 4.3 3.6 3.9 4.1 3.9 3.7 1.8 2.4 1.6 1.2 1.4 2.1 2.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.0 .4 9.03 158.2 $4.53 4.86 5.25 5.69 6.16 6.66 7.25 7.67 8.01 8.21 3.6 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Percent change from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural 5 Average gross weekly earnings Period Total private nonagricultural J Current dollars 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982... 1983 p 1982: Dec 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May , y June July Auff Sept Get r Nov r .. Decp 1984- Jan p 1 Manufacturing 1977 dollars 3 3 Wholesale and retail trade Current dollars 1977 dollars Current dollars $163.53 175.45 189.00 203.70 219.91 235.10 255.20 266.92 280.35 $184.16 186.85 189.00 189.31 183.41 172.74 170.13 167.87 171.15 $190.79 209.32 228.90 249.27 269.34 288.62 318.00 330.65 354.48 $266.08 283.73 295.65 318.69 342.99 367.78 399.26 426.45 441.86 $126.45 133.79 142.52 153.64 164.96 176.46 190.62 198.10 207.03 5.7 7.3 7.7 7.8 8.0 6.9 8.5 4.6 5.0 272.14 168.61 336.57 437.18 203.19 4.4 .5 276.59 272.90 275.27 277.46 279.75 280.80 281.05 279.30 284.42 286.99 286.18 288.05 171.48 169.61 170.45 170.85 171.42 171.85 171.37 169.48 171.85 172.78 171.98 172.70 344.60 343.39 345.63 352.08 351.60 353.68 355.77 356.25 361.90 362.96 365.40 364.91 461.35 439.20 438.00 443.54 441.19 440.82 440.89 440.08 448.50 435.08 435.17 439.02 202.57 200.65 202.88 203.83 205.76 207.68 207.67 207.34 207.97 211.54 210.88 213.88 6.8 3.1 4.3 4.7 4.6 4.9 4.8 3.7 6.0 6.4 5.7 5.7 3.1 -.2 .6 .7 1.2 2.4 2.5 1.3 3.2 3.7 2.8 2.4 369.33 457.30 213.84 5.8 292.28 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing. Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index on a 1977 = 100 1 Revised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978. 2 Construction -3.1 1.5 1.2 .2 -3.1 58 -1.5 -1.3 2.0 4 Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places. 5 Based on unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output per hour of all persons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Output 1 Business sector Hours of 2all persons Nonfarm business sector Business sector Compensation per hour 3 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Implicit price deflator 5 Unit labor cost Real compensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 1977 = 100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 86.2 89.2 92.4 94.7 92.5 86.8 89.7 93.0 95.3 92.9 78.4 80.7 86.1 91.7 89.9 78.0 80.3 85.8 91.7 89.8 91.0 90.5 93.2 96.8 97.3 89.8 89.5 92.3 96.2 96.7 58.2 62.0 66.1 71.3 78.0 58.7 62.5 66.7 71.7 78.5 90.8 92.8 95.7 97.3 95.9 91.5 93.5 96.6 97.8 96.4 67.5 69.5 71.5 75.3 84.4 67.6 69.7 71.7 75.3 84.5 66.0 69.0 71.3 75.3 82.4 66.3 69.3 71.3 74.0 81.6 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 94.5 97.6 100.0 100.6 99.4 94.7 97.8 100.0 100.6 99.1 88.2 93.8 100.0 105.5 107.8 87.8 93.7 100.0 105.7 108.0 93.3 96.0 100.0 104.9 108.5 92.7 95.8 100.0 105.0 109.0 85.5 92.9 100.0 108.6 118.7 86.0 93.0 100.0 108.6 118.4 96.3 98.9 100.0 100.9 99.1 96.8 99.0 100.0 100.9 98.9 90.5 95.1 100.0 108.0 119.5 90.8 95.1 100.0 108.0 119.5 90.4 94.7 100.0 107.5 117.2 90.0 94.6 100.0 107.1 116.5 1980 1981 1982 1983 p 98.9 101.3 101.2 103.8 98.4 100.3 100.2 103.4 106.5 109.8 106.7 111.0 106.5 109.3 106.3 110.9 107.6 108.4 105.4 106.9 108.2 109.0 106.0 107.3 131.2 143.9 155.1 163.1 130.7 143.5 154.7 163.5 96.5 95.9 97.4 99.2 96.1 95.6 97.1 99.4 132.7 142.1 153.3 157.1 132.8 143.0 154.4 158.1 128.1 140.1 147.7 153.2 128.1 140.4 148.6 154.1 101.1 100.7 101.1 101.9 100.0 99.9 100.4 100.8 107.2 106.9 106.6 106.0 106.5 106.7 106.5 105.4 106.0 106.2 105.4 104.0 106.5 106.8 106.0 104.6 151.6 153.9 156.5 158.7 151.3 153.5 156.1 158.3 97.1 97.4 97.1 98.0 96.9 97.1 96.9 97.8 149.9 152.9 154.7 155.6 151.3 153.6 155.4 157.1 145.5 147.5 148.5 149.4 146.4 148.3 149.1 150.5 102.5 103.9 104.2 104.8 101.7 103.5 104.0 104.3 107.1 110.4 112.4 113.9 106.7 110.2 112.5 114.2 104.5 106.2 107.9 108.7 104.9 106.5 108.2 109.5 160.7 162.1 163.6 166.4 161.0 162.7 164.2 166.0 99.4 99.2 98.9 99.5 99.5 99.6 99.3 99.3 156.9 156.0 156.9 158.8 158.3 157.2 157.8 159.2 151.5 152.5 153.8 155.2 152.4 153.4 154.7 155.9 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 0.8 3.6 3.5 2.6 -2.4 0.3 3.3 3.7 2.4 -2.5 -0.8 3.0 6.6 6.6 20 10 2.9 6.9 6.8 -2.0 16 -.5 3.0 3.9 .4 -1.3 -.4 3.1 4.3 .5 7.3 6.6 6.5 8.0 9.4 7.0 6.6 6.7 7.6 9.4 1.3 2.2 3.1 1.6 -1.4 1.0 2.2 3.3 1.3 -1.4 6.4 2.9 2.9 5.3 12.1 6.6 3.1 2.8 5.0 12.2 4.5 4.4 3.4 5.5 9.5 4.8 4.5 3.0 3.8 10.2 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 2.2 3.3 2.4 .6 -1.2 2.0 3.2 2.2 .6 -1.5 -2.0 6.4 6.6 5.5 2.3 -2.2 6.7 6.7 5.7 2.2 -4.1 3.0 4.1 4.9 3.5 -4.1 3.4 4.4 5.0 3.7 9.6 8.6 7.7 8.6 9.4 9.6 8.1 7.5 8.6 9.0 .5 2.6 1.2 .9 -1.7 .4 2.2 1.0 .9 -2.0 7.3 5.1 5.1 8.0 10.7 7.5 4.8 5.2 8.0 10.7 9.8 4.7 5.6 7.5 9.0 10.3 5.1 5.7 7.1 8.8 -.5 2.4 j 2.6 7 1.9 -.1 3.1 -1.3 3.1 -2.8 4.0 — 1.4 2.7 -2.8 4.4 -.8 .7 -2.7 1.4 -.7 .7 -2.7 1.2 10.5 9.7 7.7 5.2 10.4 9.8 7.8 5.6 -2.6 -.6 1.5 1.9 -2.8 6 1.6 2.3 11.1 7.1 7.9 2.5 11.1 7.7 7.9 2.4 9.2 9.4 5.4 3.7 10.0 9.6 5.8 3.7 -.4 -1.6 1.7 3.3 .1 -.4 2.3 1.3 -6.3 -1.0 -1.1 -2.3 62 .8 -.6 —4.1 -6.0 .6 -2.7 -5.4 -6.2 1.2 -2.9 -5.3 9.4 6.4 6.7 5.7 10.0 5.8 7.2 5.8 6.3 1.1 -1.0 3.7 6.8 .5 -.6 3.7 9.8 8.1 5.0 2.3 9.9 6.2 4.7 4.4 3.4 5.5 2.7 2.6 3.7 5.4 2.2 3.7 2.0 5.9 1.2 2.2 3.7 7.1 2.3 1.0 4.2 12.7 7.8 5.3 4.9 13.7 8.9 6.0 2.1 6.5 6.5 3.0 1.2 6.2 6.4 5.0 5.4 3.5 3.6 7.1 6.8 4.3 3.8 4.5 5.8 Y -LI 2.2 7.2 .1 -.9 2 3.3 -2.2 2.3 4.8 3.0 -2.6 1.5 3.5 5.5 2.8 3.3 3.7 5.3 2.7 3.3 3.3 1982: I n m IV 1983: I r n .r m p.... IV .... Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 1980 1981 1982 1983 p 1982- I n in IV 1983- I r n. m pr.... IV .... 1 2 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars. Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed. 4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index. 16 5 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose 0.5 percent in December, compared with a 0.7 percent increase in November. The index for December was 16.1 percent above its year earlier level. INDEX, 1967 = 100* (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967 = 100* (RATIO SCALE) 180 -TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 180 _ UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION 160 160 UTILITIES 140 140 *' / MINING 120 120 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION 1979 r\ ^+ —s / \y 1 160 *«"— NONDURABLE m -VX~ -*\ V A DURABLE 90 120 Mllllilll! imilimi III III III II 1979 1980 1981 / ^ s* 1981 I LI LI 1983 1982 MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE \ 80 70 I lillllllll lllilllllll 1982 1980 PERCENT* ++~~ ^-JL-— - i>* 140 Mill Mill 100! 180 60 1979 1983 1980 1981 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE Ff DERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 1982 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Period Index, 1967 = 100 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 . . 1981 .'. 1982 p 1983 1982- Dec 1983* ... Jan Feb Mar .. . Apr May June July Aufif Sept r Oetr Nov r Decp 1 2 129.3 117.8 130.5 138.2 146.1 152.5 147.0 151.0 138.6 147.7 135.2 137.4 138.1 140.0 142.6 144.4 146.4 149.7 151.8 153.8 155.0 156.1 156.9 Output as percent of capacity. Annual data are averages of the four monthly indexes. Manufacturing Manufacturing Percent change from year earlier Mining Total 87.95 100.00 1967 pTopoTtion Capacity utilization rate, percent Industry production indexes, 1967 = 100 Total industrial production -0.4 -8.9 10.8 5.9 5.7 4.4 -3.6 2.7 -8.2 6.6 -5.7 -2.3 -3.4 -1.2 1.7 3.7 5.6 7.9 9.7 12.0 14.2 15.7 16.1 129.4 116.3 130.3 138.4 146.8 153.6 146.7 150.4 137.6 148.5 134.5 136.7 138.2 140.4 143.1 145.1 147.4 150.6 152.8 155.1 156.4 157.2 157.8 Durable 51.98 125.7 109.3 122.3 130.0 139.7 146.4 136.7 140.5 124.7 134.6 119.9 122.5 123.9 126.3 129.1 131.0 133.2 136.8 138.8 141.6 143.0 144.0 145.0 Utilities Nondurable 35.97 134.6 126.4 141.8 150.5 156.9 164.0 161.2 164.8 156.2 168.5 155.6 157.4 159.0 160.7 163.3 165.4 167.8 170.6 172.9 174.6 175.8 176.3 176.3 6.36 115.3 112.8 114.2 118.2 124.0 125.5 132.7 142.2 126.1 116.5 118.4 121.9 115.6 112.6 111.6 112.8 112.6 115.0 116.1 117.1 118.6 120.9 123.4 5.69 143.7 146.0 151.7 156.5 161.4 166.0 168.3 169.1 168.7 172.7 164.2 163.1 162.0 165.8 169.3 169.7 169.8 176.0 179.3 179.3 176.9 178.8 183.4 Federal Reserve series 83.7 72.9 79.6 82.2 84.7 86.0 79.6 79.4 71.1 75.3 68.9 70.0 70.6 71.6 72.9 73.8 74.9 76.4 77.3 78.4 79.0 79.3 79.4 Commerce series 2 83.0 77.0 81.0 83.0 84.0 83.0 78.0 76.0 70.0 67.5 69.8 73.3 75.5 l Industrial materials (Federal Reserve series) 87.0 73.3 81.1 82.6 85.6 87.6 80.4 80.7 70.1 75.2 66.6 68.7 70.1 71.5 72.5 73.5 74.4 76.5 77.4 78.6 79.4 79.8 80.1 Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Products Intermediate products Final products Period Total Durable goods Total 1967 proportion 47.82 27.68 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 19SO 1981. 1982 1983 p 1982: Dec 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May 125.1 118.2 127.6 135.9 142.2 147.2 145.3 149.5 141.5 147.2 139.5 140.1 138.9 139.9 142.8 144.5 146.4 149.0 150.7 152.1 152.9 154.2 155.4 128.9 124.0 137.1 145.3 149.1 150.8 145.4 147.9 142.6 151.9 142.0 143.6 143.4 144.3 147.7 150.4 152.4 154.8 156.3 157.3 157.1 157.8 158.7 June July Auir Sept r.. Oet r Nov r Dec p . . . .y 7.89 135.3 121.4 141.9 154.0 159.2 155.8 136.7 140.5 129.2 147.7 125.9 131.6 134.4 136.3 140.5 145.5 149.2 152.9 154.2 157.5 157.1 156.7 159,7 Materials Equipment Consumer goods Nondurable goods 19.79 126.3 125.1 135.2 141.9 145.1 148.8 148.9 150.9 148.0 153.7 148.4 148.3 147.0 147.5 150.5 152.3 153.6 155.6 157.1 157.2 157.1 158.2 158.3 Total 20.14 120.0 110.2 114.6 123.0 132.8 142.2 145.2 151.8 139.8 140.8 136.1 135.3 132.7 133.8 136.2 136.5 138.2 141.0 143.1 144.9 147.1 149.3 150.8 Business 12.63 142.4 128.2 135.4 147.8 160.3 171.3 173.2 181.1 157.9 153.2 148.1 146.6 142.7 143.7 146.9 147.7 150.2 153.3 156.6 158.7 161.5 164.4 165.8 Defense and space equipment 7.51 82.4 80.0 79.8 81.3 86.5 93.4 98.2 102.7 109.4 119.9 115.9 116.4 116.1 117.0 118.2 117.6 118.0 120.4 120.2 121.8 122.9 123.9 125.7 Total 12.89 135.3 123.1 137.2 145.1 154.1 160.5 151.9 154.4 143.3 156.9 141.5 143.7 145.3 147.8 150.8 152.2 154.5 158.1 162.2 165.4 166.5 167.2 167.6 Construction supplies Business supplies 6.42 134.5 116.3 132.6 140.6 151.7 158.0 140.9 141.9 124.3 142.7 123.0 127.0 129.7 133.1 136.4 138.4 142.1 145.8 149.0 151.4 152.3 152.7 152.7 6.47 136.0 129.7 141.7 149.5 156.5 163.1 162.8 166.7 162.1 159.8 160.3 160.9 162.3 165.2 166.0 166.8 170.4 175.3 179.3 180.7 181.6 39.29 132.4 115.5 131.7 138.6 148.3 156.4 147.6 151.6 133.7 145.3 127.8 132.0 134.9 137.6 139.7 141.7 143.7 147.8 149.7 152.2 153.9 154.9 155.3 Supplementary group: Inergy total 12.23 125.5 125.5 129.1 132.9 135.4 137.9 137.7 137.4 135.7 136.1 132.2 132.4 131.0 131.9 133.9 133.8 133.6 138.5 139.4 139.1 137.7 139.2 141.5 [1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Nondurable manufactures Durable manufactures Primary metals Period Total 1967 proportion. 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982. 1983 p 1982: Dec 1983: Jan.... Feb Mar .. Apr May .. June July.... Aus: Sept r Oct r...... Nov r Dec" 6.57 123.1 96.4 109.7 111.1 119.9 121.3 102.3 107.9 75.3 85.4 63.5 73.1 77.9 81.2 83.1 84.9 84.8 85.5 87.5 90.6 95.1 92.0 91.1 Iron and steel Fabricated metal products 4.21 119.8 95.8 104.8 103.8 113.2 113.2 92.4 99.8 61.7 46.6 59.0 64.3 66.9 68.5 69.5 69.7 71.8 75.1 78.2 84.0 80.5 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 5.93 124.2 109.9 123.9 131.0 141.6 148.5 134.1 136.4 114.8 120.4 107.3 107.6 110.3 113.9 115.3 115.5 118.5 122.7 126.0 127.4 127.2 129.3 129.7 Nonelectrical machinery 9.15 140.1 125.1 134.5 143.6 153.6 163.7 162.8 171.2 149.0 150.6 139.2 138.0 136.2 138.6 143.1 146.1 149.5 154.2 157.3 158.3 159.5 162.9 163.0 Transportation equipment Electrical machinery Total 8.05 143.8 116.5 134.8 145.4 159.4 175.0 172.8 178.4 169.3 185.8 165.5 169.5 168.9 173.8 177.2 180.1 182.4 188.3 189.2 195.8 198.7 200.6 203.7 9.27 108.7 97.4 111.1 122.2 132.5 135.4 116.9 116.1 104.9 117.4 103.7 106.3 109.6 110.1 111.4 113.8 116.6 119.7 121.1 124.7 125.5 125.8 128.2 Motor vehicles and parts 4.50 128.2 111.1 142.0 161.1 169.9 159.9 119.0 122.3 109.8 136.9 108.8 113.9 123.0 123.2 125.5 130.4 136.2 142.3 144.3 150.9 150.9 152.5 157.1 Lumber and products 1.64 116.2 107.6 123.2 131.2 136.3 136.9 119.3 119.1 112.6 121.4 130.0 130.2 128.7 132.1 135.8 137.4 141.3 141.6 142.3 141.7 142.0 Apparel products 3.31 114.3 107.6 125.7 134.2 134.2 134.4 127.0 120.4 Printing and publishing Chemicals and products 4.72 118.2 113.3 122.5 127.6 131.5 136.9 139.6 144.2 144.1 1529 142.8 .141.3 144.0 145.9 145.7 145.2 147.4 152.0 157.8 161.7 162.7 163.1 163.2 7.74 159.4 147.2 170.9 185.7 197.4 211.8 207.1 215.6 196.1 8.75 124.0 123.4 133.0 138.8 142.7 147.5 149.6 152.1 151.1 195.9 197.6 202.3 205.7 208.5 211.0 214.7 218.3 220.3 224.1 228.1 228.3 152.8 154.4 153.0 152.0 153.7 155.6 157.7 159.9 159.3 158.2 157.6 Foods NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Construction contracts 2 Private Total new construction expenditures Period Residential Total Commercial and industrial New housing units Total 1 Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1977=100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) Billions of dollars 1976 1977 1978......... 1979. 1980 1981... 1982.. 1983 p . 151.1 173.8 205.6 230.4 230.7 239.4 232.0 264.9 112.0 135.7 159.7 181.6 175.7 186.1 181.0 214.5 60.5 81.0 93.4 99.0 87.3 86.6 74.8 112.8 47.3 65.7 75.8 78.6 63.1 62.7 51.9 85.1 31.5 32.2 36.7 42.7 44.7 48.2 51.5 52.4 52.6 52.2 49.4 131 595 53.3 51.0 49.7 46.8 46.3 49.0 48.1 50.5 50.1 46.7 50.4 51.0 52.0 49.8 49.0 50.7 52.2 52.2 52.4 50.9 53.4 54.6 55.8 55.7 52.9 48.7 47.0 47.9 48.7 49.6 51.4 53.5 52.8 48.7 50.1 50.1 127 119 131 129 148 151 137 146 143 139 145 134 803 693 632 652 734 785 741 783 830 856 884 748 79.0 100.0 114.0 122.0 107.0 110.0 111.0 138.0 39.1 38.2 45.9 48.8 55.0 53.3 51.1 50.3 Annual rates Annual rates 1982: Dec 240.2 190.8 86.0 58.6 1983: Jan leb Mar Apr y May June Julyr Aug r . . Sept r Oct r Nov r Dec" 247.9 243.0 241.9 247.4 254.8 264.3 274.2 282.0 285.4 271.7 275.5 275.0 195.0 194.3 194.9 199.5 206.0 214.7 222.8 228.5 232.6 223.0 225.4 224.9 89.7 93.6 96.1 102.0 107.5 113.5 122.3 127.1 129.1 121.7 119.2 118.2 63.4 68.8 72.3 77.3 82.2 87.9 92.7 94.8 95.0 92.1 92.0 91.9 T 1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential (Construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. 2 P. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971 for floor space. 592 739 977 1,059 904 r 919 r 690 750 19.9 22.5 29.6 39.9 43.8 51.3 54.6 49.3 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New private homes New private housing units Period Units started, hy type of structure Total 1976..... 1977.. 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 p .. 1,537.5 1,987.1 2,020.3 1,745.1 1,292.2 1,084.2 1,062.2 1,703.1 1 unit 1,162.4 1,450.9 1,438.3 1,194.1 852.2 705.4 662.6 1,066.9 2-4 units 85.9 121.7 125.0 122.0 109.5 91.1 80.0 114.9 5 or more units 289.2 414.4 462.0 429.0 330.5 287.7 319.6 521.3 Units authorized 1,296.2 1,690.0 1,800.5 1,551.8 1,190.6 985.5 1,000.5 1,593.7 Units completed Homes sold Homes for sale at end of period * Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 2 1,377.2 1,657.1 1,867.5 1,870.8 1,501.6 1,265.7 1,005.5 646 819 817 709 545 436 412 625 353 402 414 3 398 336 272 251 302 5.6 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.3 1,035 1,195 1,138 1,147 1,164 1,353 1,386 1,432 1,729 r l,476 1,588 1,430 529 611 593 611 635 665 658 594 r 544 r 589 624 629 808 251 259 262 262 266 273 284 289 296 r 298 301 310 302 5.5 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1982: Dec 1983: Jan.. .. Feb Mar Apr May . June July Augr Sept Oct r Nov r Dec* 1 1,280 1,694 1,784 1,605 1,506 1,807 1,736 1,804 1,904 1,664 1,654 1,755 1,667 842 1,126 1,103 1,008 1,001 1,183 1,127 1,032 1,135 1,031 1,002 1,097 972 79 100 117 100 117 96 123 135 110 117 90 133 151 359 468 564 497 388 528 486 637 659 516 562 525 544 Seasonally adjusted. 2 Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable vith earlier data. 3 New series beginning March 1979. 1,326 1,447 1,479 1,467 1,536 1,635 1,761 1,782 1,652 1,506 1,630 1,642 1,549 ! 5.7 5.5 5.8 5.5 NOTE.—Units authorized beginning 1978 relate to 16,000 permit-issuing places; data for 1973-77 are for 14,000 places. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturing and trade sales rose 1.1 percent in November and inventories rose $2.2 billion. According to the advance survey, retail sales rose 0.1 percent in December following an increase of 1.1 percent in November. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 600 550 160 150 140 130 120 500 450 -RETAIL INVENTORIES- no 400 100 350 90 80 MANUFACTURING " AND TRADE SALES " 300 RETAIL SALES 70 250 60 50 200 1979 1980 1982 1981 1983 RATIO* 150 100 I l l l l 1979 1.20 1980 1982 1981 1983 1979 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Manufacturing and trade * COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Wholesale Sales Period Sales2 Inventories 3 Sales 2 Inventories 3 Inventory-sales ratio 4 Eetail Total 2 Durable goods stores Inventories Nondurable goods stores Total 8 Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Manufacturing and trade l Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1976 1977 1978... 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: Nov Dec 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May T y June July.... Auar Sept . * y Oct r Nov" Dec" 1 2 3 204,277 229,624 260,307 297,663 327,284 356,099 344,179 318,544 351,036 398,890 450,736 492,885 526,152 511,942 50,694 55,987 66,117 78,680 92,658 100,673 95,363 64,078 72,311 85,685 98,394 112,341 116,986 118,790 54,781 60,435 67,286 75,047 80,235 87,298 89,640 18,150 20,724 23,218 25,196 24,401 26,335 26,739 36,631 39,711 44,067 49,850 55,834 60,963 62,901 79,273 89,530 102,790 111,229 116,430 126,833 128,250 37,841 43,135 49,987 53,717 54,400 59,095 59,597 41,432 46,395 52,803 57,512 62,030 67,738 68,653 1.48 1.46 1.44 1.43 1.45 1.44 1.51 338,722 338,391 513,888 511,942 91,912 91,389 118,349 118,790 92,492 92,459 28,721 28,723 63,771 63,736 127,619 128,250 59,417 59,597 68,202 68,653 345,337 341,490 348,009 351,100 363,925 373,572 372,434 r 374,358 r 380,089 382,209 386,567 507,550 507,665 503,222 504,796 505,658 505,521 505,826 510,430 513,883 515,999 518,220 94,790 92,245 92,943 92,586 97,529 100,479 100,315 r 100,568 r 102,297 104,578 103,502 107,218 117,564 116,417 116,591 117,498 115,855 115,630 115,745 116,813 118,410 119,882 119,454 120,341 92,308 91,164 93,263 95,449 98,431 99,173 99,521 97,801 99,202 100,841 r !01,981 102,059 28,307 27,490 29,160 30,668 32,124 32,663 32,539 30,893 32,125 33,092 r 34,lll 34,654 64,001 63,674 64,103 64,781 66,307 66,510 66,982 66,908 67,077 67,749 r 67,870 67,405 127,869 130,392 129,327 129,901 131,654 132,501 131,905 133,783 135,452 135,301 137,748 59,735 61,517 60,412 60,640 61,401 62,019 61,284 62,313 64,021 63,762 65,596 68,134 68,875 68,915 69,261 70,253 70,482 70,621 71,470 71,431 71,539 72,152 .52 .51 .47 .49 .45 .44 .39 .35 1.36 1.36 1.35 1.35 1.34 See page 21 for manufacturing. Monthly average for year and total for month. Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. 20 1.38 1.40 1.43 1.44 1.42 1.40 1.41 1.38 1.39 1.39 1.43 1.39 1.36 1.34 1.34 1.33 1.37 1.37 1.34 1.35 * For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In December manufacturers' shipments and orders rose while inventories fell. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO 1983 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturers' shipments l Manufacturers' new orders l Manufacturers' inventories 2 Durable goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Durable goods Total Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, nondefense Nondurable goods Manufacturers' unfilled3 orders 12,799 15,291 19,458 23,231 23,259 24,059 20,687 22,880 48,145 53,950 59,207 67,953 76,801 84,199 82,268 86,000 182,499 205,675 262,671 305,453 325,908 323,346 300,971 333,120 Manufacturers' inventory— shipments ratio 4 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 p 1982: Dec 1983- Jan Feb Mar Apr J May T June July " J Aufir Sept Oct Nov Dec p 1 2 3 98,802 113,202 126,905 143,936 154,391 168,129 159,177 171,064 50,689 59,267 67,848 76,060 77,550 83,872 76,843 85,206 48,113 53,935 59,057 67,876 76,841 84,257 82,334 85,857 175,193 189,195 210,415 241,113 264,114 282,333 264,902 260,667 112,581 121,575 137,834 160,554 174,547 186,222 175,200 171,169 62,612 67,620 72,581 80,559 89,567 96,111 89,702 89,498 99,543 115,061 131,616 147,466 156,142 167,924 157,371 173,750 51,398 61,111 72,409 79,513 79,341 83,725 75,103 87,750 154,543 73,495 81,048 264,902 175,200 89,702 157,382 76,180 19,679 81,202 300,971 82,355 77,449 79,951 83,101 84,456 90,905 88,234 89,978 90,996 93,366 r 96,513 96,693 20,507 19,175 20,032 22,592 22,228 24,289 21,580 23,028 25,213 26,003 r 24,575 25,125 80,516 80,308 82,636 82,924 85,418 87,584 87,221 88,324 89,965 88,436 88,960 90,552 305,599 305,268 306,053 309,015 310,922 315,488 318,348 320,664 323,032 328,041 332,431 333,120 158,239 158,081 161,803 163,065 167,965 173,920 172,598 175,989 178,590 176,790 181,084 186,556 77,744 77,769 79,595 80,241 82,669 86,582 85,646 87,918 88,970 88,228 r 92,246 95,969 80,495 80,312 82,208 82,824 85,296 87,338 86,952 88,071 89,620 88,562 88,838 90,587 262,117 260,856 257,304 257,397 258,149 257,390 258,176 259,834 260,021 260,816 261,018 260,667 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales. Book value, end of period. End of period. 172,506 171,572 169,377 169,814 170,734 169,840 169,693 170,576 170,385 170,628 170,964 171,169 89,611 89,284 87,927 87,583 87,415 87,550 88,483 89,258 89,636 90,188 90,054 89,498 162,871 157,757 162,587 166,025 169,874 178,489 175,455 178,302 180,961 181,802 185,473 187,245 1.69 1.61 1.57 1.57 1.66 1.64 1.73 1.52 1.71 1.66 1.65 1.59 1.58 1.54 1.48 1.50 1.48 1.46 1.48 1.44 1.40 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In December, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 0.7 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods were unchanged. Prices of capital equipment rose 0.2 percent. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 320 INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 320 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED — FINISHED GOODS 300 300 280 280 TOTAL FINISHED GOODS- 260 240 260 240 CONSUMER FOODS 220 -CAPITAL EQUIPMENT- 220 200 200 CONSUMER GOODS EXCLUDING FOODS 180 180 160 160 140 140 ! I I I I 120 1975 1976 1977 1979 1978 120 I I I I I 1980 1981 1982 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Intermediate materials Finished goods Period Total 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 p 1982: Dec 1983: Jan Feb.... Mar Aw May , J j une July Aug r Sept Oct Nov Dec 1 Finished goods excluding consumer foods Con- goods sumer foods Total 170.6 181.7 195.9 217.7 247.0 269.8 280.7 285.2 286.4 283.3 283.8 283.0 283.0 283.7 285.1 285.3 286.4 286.9 287.8 287.3 288.0 180.4 189.9 207.2 226.2 239.5 253.6 259.3 261.8 258.8 258.3 260.9 261.4 264.2 262.9 261.4 259.5 260.5 262.4 265.3 262.7 264.6 166.1 177.7 190.7 213.3 247.8 273.3 285.8 290.9 293.5 289.5 289.2 288.1 287.1 288.4 290.8 291.8 292.9 293.0 293.1 293.4 293.6 finished Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 22 Total 162.6 174.3 186.7 211.5 250.8 276.5 287.8 291.3 296.7 290.8 290.0 288.0 286.7 288.3 291.4 292.5 293.4 293.7 293.6 293.9 294.0 Durable 144.5 152.8 166.9 183.2 206.2 218.6 226.7 233.1 230.4 229.6 232.2 232.6 232.4 232.9 234.0 234.1 235.0 233.8 232.8 233.9 234.1 Total finished Nondurable Capital equipment consumer goods 174.8 189.3 200.0 231.3 283.9 319.6 333.6 335.3 346.4 337.3 333.7 329.7 327.4 330.0 334.7 336.7 337.6 338.9 339.6 339.3 339.4 173.4 184.6 199.2 216.5 239.8 264.3 279.4 287.3 284.4 283.9 285.0 285.8 285.6 286.2 287.0 287.5 289.3 288.8 289.6 289.6 290.1 169.7 180.7 194.9 217.9 248.9 271.3 281.0 284.6 287.0 283.1 283.4 282.2 282.3 282.9 284.5 284.7 285.6 286.4 287.3 286.6 287.3 Consumer goods Total 189.1 201.5 215.6 242.2 280.3 306.0 310.4 312.4 311.8 310.1 309.8 308.6 307.2 308.6 311.1 312.0 313.6 316.1 317.0 317.4 317.4 Foods and l feeds 185.3 190.5 203.1 226.1 252.6 250.3 239.4 247.8 234.0 236.0 239.4 239.8 246.3 245.3 243.2 242.4 250.4 260.9 258.0 256.2 255.3 Other Crude materials Total Foodstuffs and Other stuffs 189.4 202.3 216.5 244.4 282.3 310.1 315.7 317.2 317.5 315.6 315.0 313.7 311.9 313.3 316.2 317.2 318.3 320.3 321.5 322.0 322.1 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 202.7 209.2 234.4 274.3 304.6 329.0 319.5 323.6 316.6 315.8 316.8 318.9 323.9 324.1 323.6 319.7 326.7 328.0 327.2 328.3 331.8 190.2 192.1 216.2 247.9 259.2 257.4 247.8 252.3 240.3 243.0 248.8 250.5 258.0 255.0 251.0 244.4 254.0 254.6 255.2 255.1 259.5 228.5 245.0 272.3 330.0 401.0 482.3 473.9 477.2 480.6 472.6 463.3 466.4 466.5 472.9 479.9 481.9 483.5 486.1 482.3 485.9 487.7 CONSUMER PRICES In December, f+ie consumer price index for aH urban consumers rose 0.3 percent seasonally adjusted (0.1 percent not seasonally adjusted). The index was 3.8 percent above its level in December 1982. INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 320 320 300 300 280 280 260 260 240 240 220 220 200 200 180 180 160 160 140 140 120 I II IIi IIIi N IIIIi IIi i 1975 1976 SEE NOTE ON 1979 1978 1977 1980 i ii i i Ii iii t 1981 I I I I LJ I L_L1 1982 1983 TABLE BELOW COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [1967 = 100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Housing Transportation All items Shelter Period All items * Food Total * Total Renters' costs 2 NSA Rel. imp.5 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980.... 1981 1982 1983 1982: Dee 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1 2 3 4 tc, 5 100.0 170.5 181.5 195.4 217.4 246.8 272.4 289.1 2984 292.4 293.1 293.2 293.4 295.5 297.1 298.1 299.3 300.3 301.8 302.6 303.1 303.5 19.0 180.8 192 2 211.4 234.5 254.6 274.6 285.7 291 7 288.1 288.3 288.3 290.1 291.3 292.2 291.3 291.0 291.6 292.5 293.9 294.3 295.5 37.7 174.6 186 5 202.8 227 6 263.3 293 5 314.7 323 1 317.4 318.9 318.9 318.7 320.4 321.5 322.1 323.4 324.2 325.8 326.6 328.1 328.8 21.3 1790 191 1 2104 239 7 281 7 314 7 3370 344 8 336.0 338.3 339.1 339.2 341.6 342.7 343.6 345.3 346.6 348.4 349.8 351.2 352.1 6.9 103 0 100.2 100.8 101.1 101.3 101.7 102.2 102.5 103.1 103.6 104.3 104.7 105.1 105.4 Homeowners' costs 2 Maintenance and repairs NSA NSA 13.9 102 5 100.0 100.7 100.9 100.9 101.7 102.0 102.2 102.7 103.0 103.5 103.9 104.3 104.5 0.5 199 6 214 7 233 0 2564 285 7 314 4 334 1 346 3 337.8 342.9 339.4 339.9 343.6 344.3 345.1 346.1 347.9 346.6 351.1 353.4 354.7 Includes items not shown separately, December 1982=100. Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981. Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant, Relative importance, December 1982. Fuel and other utilities Apparel and upkeep Total * New cars Motor fuel 3 8.4 5.2 147 6 154 2 159 6 166 6 1784 186 9 191 8 196 5 192.7 193.2 194.2 194.1 194.5 195.8 196.5 197.7 198.4 198.4 198.4 198.5 198.4 21.8 165 5 177 2 185 5 212 0 249 7 2800 291 5 298 4 295.8 293.9 289.1 289.0 292.1 295.8 297.1 298.6 301.6 304.1 305.9 306.4 307.2 3.5 135 7 142 9 153 8 1660 179 3 190 2 197 6 202 6 199.3 199.4 201,1 202.6 201.3 200.6 200.8 200.8 202.5 204.5 205.9 206.0 206.2 6.2 177 9 188 2 1963 265 6 369 1 4109 3894 376 4 391.2 378.3 353.0 349.5 363.2 378.1 380.9 382.5 387.1 388.9 387.1 384.1 384.6 182 7 202 2 216 0 239 3 278 6 319 2 350 8 370 3 369.6 368.9 366.9 365.1 365.8 368.8 368.9 370.1 371.1 373.6 373.1 375.9 375.8 Medical care InergJ 4 6.0 184.7 2024 2194 239 7 265.9 2945 328 7 357 3 344.4 347.2 350.1 351.7 353.3 354.8 356.4 358.4 360.3 361.7 363.0 364.4 366.4 12.4 189,3 207 3 2204 275 9 361.1 4100 416 1 419 3 431.3 6 420.5 404.9 401.3 409.3 419.5 420.9 422.3 425.4 428.2 426.6 426.6 427.1 less food, energy, and shelter 47.3 159.9 169 5 179.1 191 5 2083 228 1 245.6 258 4 251.9 253.1 254.2 254.9 255.5 256.1 257.0 258.5 259.7 260.9 262.4 263.5 264.3 6 Energy excludes motor oil, coolant, etc. beginning January 1983, NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers. Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGS- IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Period Change from preceding period Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate Consumer goods Consumer goods Consumer goods Total finished goods Capital equipment Ixcluding foods Foods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Total finished Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods goods Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983" 6.6 3.7 6.9 9.2 12.8 11.8 7.1 3.7 .6 10.8 4.4 6.5 7.8 11.1 13.5 9.2 4.0 1.6 8.2 6.4 7.3 7.9 8.8 11.4 9.2 3.9 2.0 6.7 6.0 6.7 8.5 17.5 14.2 8.5 4.2 -.8 5.5 -2.5 6.9 11.7 7.4 7.5 1.4 2.1 2.2 Change, month to month 1982: Dec 1983: 0.3 Jan. . Feb Mar. .. Apr May T J -1.1 June July .. Aug r Sept . .2 -.3 0 .2 .5 .1 .4 .2 .3 -.2 .2 . Oct Nov Dec 0.2 0.5 5.2 0.8 7.8 3.6 4.7 -.2 .4 .3 •» .2 .3 .2 .6 r -.2 .3 0 .2 —.7 -2.4 -4.7 A -.1 3.0 3.3 3.9 2.5 3.6 1.3 1.5 .2 4.2 4.1 9.5 3.1 0 -6.9 -3.6 1.5 9.2 r 3.4 3.4 3.2 -7.6 -11.2 -5.5 -2.3 4.8 8.3 7.3 3.2 1.5 r .7 .4 2.7 2.7 2.0 2.4 1.7 1.7 2.7 4.4 2.5 3.0 r .4 1.8 1.5 .9 .1 _.6 -1.3 -.9 1.4 1.8 2.8 3.4 2.6 2.0 0.3 -2.0 -.2 1.0 .2 1.1 -.5 -.6 -.7 .4 .7 1.1 -1.0 .7 g -.1 -.5 .6 1.1 .4 .3 r .l -.0 .1 .0 -3.5 -.7 1.2 2.4 4.7 3.7 2.0 .9 -.3 .8 .8 ,2 2.5 8.7 3.5 3.7 1.6 -.1 _2.2 -4.4 -5.0 -3.5 1.2 2.4 4.0 4.9 3.9 1.8 2.4 1.9 2.8 2.6 2.2 1.8 2.6 3.0 2.1 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.3 .7 .6 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] All Shelter All items * Period Food Total1 Total1 Benters' costs Addendum: All items, percent change (annual rate) Transportation Housing Homeowners' costs Maintenance and repairs NSA NSA Fuel and other utilities Apparel and upkeep MediTotal1 New cars Motor fuel 2 cal care Ener- gy 3 items less food, energy, and shelter From 3 months earlier From 6 months earlier From year earlier NSA Change, December to December, NSA 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 .. 70 48 68 90 133 124 89 39 3.8 65 6 80 11 8 102 102 43 31 2.6 75 54 76 99 152 13 7 102 36 3.5 73 42 87 11 5 174 15 1 99 24 4.7 5.1 4.5 55 71 72 10 1 103 10 6 92 42 5.0 11 2 90 81 59 160 13 6 145 97 1.8 23 45 42 32 55 68 36 16 2.9 98 88 43 77 182 14 7 11 0 17 3.9 7 3 11 0 26 48 49 72 62 85 7 4 522 75 189 94 68 1 6 — 65 3.4 -1.7 11 6 64 69 70 72 5.2 65 9.1 5.8 6.5 7.7 7.2 99 9.4 11.3 13.5 10.4 61 6.1 3.2 99 10 1 88 88 10 1 100 12 5 11 0 6.4 80 374 0.8 0.3 18 1 11 9 13 5.0 Change, month to month 1982: Dec 1983: Jan....... Feb Mar....... Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dee 1 -0.3 .2 2 .1 .6 .5 .2 .4 .4 .5 .4 .3 .3 -0.0 .1 0 .6 .4 .3 -.3 -.1 .2 .3 .5 .1 .4 -0.8 .5 0 — .1 .5 .3 .2 .4 .2 .5 .2 .5 .2 -1.4 .7 .2 .0 .7 .3 .3 .5 .4 .5 .4 .4 .3 -0.4 0.6 .3 .2 .4 .5 .3 .6 .5 .7 .4 .4 .3 1.5 -1.0 .1 1.1 .2 .2 .3 .5 — .4 1.3 .7 .4 2 -.5 — .5 .2 .8 .0 .3 .3 .7 -.1 .8 -.0 Includes items not shown separately. direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981. Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant, 2 Includes 3 etc. 4 0.7 .2 .0 .8 .3 .2 .5 .3 .5 .4 .4 .2 0.7 Energy excludes motor oil, coolant, etc. beginning January 1983. NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. 24 -0.3 -0.1 .3 .5 -.1 .2 .7 .4 .6 .4 0 0 .1 i -.6 -1.6 -.0 1.1 1.3 , .4 .5 1.0 .8 .6 .2 .3 0.3 .1 .9 .7 -.6 -.3 .1 0 .8 1.0 .7 .0 .1 -0.8 -3.3 -6.7 -1.0 3.9 4.1 .7 .4 1.2 .5 — .5 -.8 .1 .8 .8 .5 .5 .4 .5 .6 .5 .4 .4 .4 .5 4-2.5 -3.7 -.9 2.0 2.5 .3 .3 .7 .7 4 0 .1 0.5 0.5 2.3 3.9 .5 .4 .3 .2 .2 .4 .6 .5 .5 .6 .4 .3 -.4' -1.2 .4 2.1 5.1 5.4 4.7 4.2 5.3 5.5 4.9 4.0 1.4 .4 .5 .8 1.9 2.9 3.4 4.7 5.4 5.1 4.6 4.7 3.8 3.5 3.6 3.9 3.5 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.8 Data beginning January 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers. Data beginning January 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers rose 2.1 percent in January and prices paid by farmers rose 0.6 percent in the month ended January 15. INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1977= TOO (RATIO SCALE) 60 1984 _!/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE [1977 = 100] Prices paid by farmers Prices received by farmers Period 1976 1977 Livestock and products Crops 102 100 115 132 134 139 133 135 102 100 105 116 125 134 121 129 101 100 124 147 144 143 145 141 Oct . Nov Dec . 128 132 134 136 137 134 r !32 139 136 134 135 140 114 118 r !22 127 129 r !27 r !26 139 r !35 r !34 r !34 137 142 146 146 145 144 141 137 139 137 135 135 143 Jan .... 143 137 150 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983: Jan Peb Mar Apr .... May June . July AufiT Sept 1984: All farm products 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates l Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates Production items Eatio 2 95 100 108 123 138 150 r !57 161 95 100 109 125 139 151 r !55 159 97 100 108 125 138 148 r !50 153 107 100 106 107 97 93 r 85 84 r !58 r r !57 157 r !58 r !59 r !60 159 r !59 159 r !60 r !59 r !60 161 150 151 152 153 r !53 r !53 152 153 154 153 154 155 r !59 159 r !60 r !61 r !61 160 r !61 r !62 161 162 163 164 162 155 81 83 84 r 85 r 85 r 83 r 83 r 86 84 83 83 86 r 87 have been converted to a 1977 = 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Series revised beginning 1982. Source: Department of Agriculture. NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS Growth in Ml accelerated in December, while growth in the broader aggregates slowed. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS'(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 400 400 200 200 1975 * SEASONALLY 1983 ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period 1976: 1977: 1978: 19791980: 1981: 1982: 19831982: 1983: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec p Dec.. Jan Feb Mar Aor May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov p Dec p Ml M2 M3 L Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCD) 1 Ml plus overnight BPs and Eurodollars, MMMF balances (general purpose and broker /dealer), MMDAs, and savings and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, term KPs, and institution-only MMMF balances M3 plus other liquid assets 310.4 335.5 363.2 389,0 414.1 440.6 478.2 521.1 478.2 482.1 491.1 497.6 496.5 507.4 511.7 515.5 516.7 517.1 517.9 518.3 521.1 1,163.5 1,286.4 1,388.5 1,497.5 1,630.3 1,794.9 1,959.5 2,184.6 1,959.5 2,010.0 2,050.8 2,069.9 2,074.8 2,096.2 2,114.4 2,126.3 2,136.9 2,145.4 r 2,161.6 2,174.6 2,184.6 1 Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at an annual rate. 26 ,296.3 ,451.8 ,613.5 ,758.4 ,936.7 2,167.9 2,377.6 2,602.9 2,377.6 2,403.3 2,430.7 2,447.1 2,453.9 2,476.2 2,498.8 2,510.3 r 2,528.8 r 2,544.9 r 2,563.2 2,588.7 2,602.9 Percent change from year or 6 months earlier 2 Ml 1,522.4 1,711.0 1,922.9 2,131.8 2,343.6 2,622.0 2,896.7 2,896.7 2,930.6 2,960.2 2,987.5 3,005.8 3,031.3 3,058.6 3,087.8 3,116.2 3,137.9 3,155.2 NOTE.—See page 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 6.6 8.1 8.3 7.1 6.5 6.4 8.5 9.0 11.2 12.6 14.8 15.4 12.2 14.6 14.5 14.3 10.7 8.0 8.8 4.3 3.7 M2 13.7 10.6 7.9 7.9 8.9 10.1 9.2 11.5 10.5 14.2 16.1 16.6 15.6 16.2 16.4 11.9 8.6 7.4 r 8.5 7.6 6.8 M3 11.6 12.0 11.1 9.0 10.1 11.9 9.7 9.5 10.7 10.8 10.0 9.9 8.9 9.1 10.5 9.1 8.2 r 8.2 r 9.1 9.3 8.5 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Period Dec: 1976...... 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 p... 1982: Dec 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June...... July Aug Sept Oct........ Nov Dee*..... Currency Demand deposits * Other checkable deposits (OCD) Overnight repurchase agreements (RPs), net, plus overnight Eurodollars General purpose and broker/ dealer Institution only NSA NSA NSA Money market mutual fund balances Money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) Savings depos.its Small denomination time deposits' 2 Large denomination time deposits 2 NSA Term repurchase agreements (RPs) Term Eurodollars (net) NSA NSA Savings bonds Shortterm Treasury securi; ties Bankers' acceptances Commercial paper 43.2 372.4 453.0 491.6 481.2 423.1 400.7 -344.4 359.3 312.3 391.0 446.0 521.8 635.9 731.7 828.6 859.1 792.1 118.2 145.2 194.9 222.2 258.9 302.6 333.8 329.0 14.2 19.5 27.1 30.1 34.8 37.2 40.3 52.6 13.1 18.4 29.0 41.5 48.0 65.3 80.0 71.7 76.4 80.2 79.5 72.3 67.7 67.9 80.8 89.7 99.3 128.7 156.9 176.3 217.6 8.8 11.8 21.6 26.7 31.6 40.6 44.9 51.7 62.9 79.2 97.0 98.1 104.2 108.8 47.6 43.2 359.3 859.1 333.8 40.3 80.0 67.9 217.6 44.9 108.8 46.1 45.2 43.5 41.0 40.4 39.2 38.6 38.4 39.1 39.9 40.6 40.2 189.1 277.7 320.5 341.2 356.8 367.3 368.4 366.3 366.9 367.4 369.1 372.4 335.1 325.7 322.7 321.5 323.1 325.0 323.5 322.1 320.6 318.8 316.4 312.3 797.4 755.1 733.8 725.7 720.1 722.1 735.1 748.0 757.7 771.0 r 784.4 792.1 310.7 297.9 296.2 300.2 299.2 304.1 305.6 311.6 317.7 319.9 r 324.8 329.0 40.6 40.8 41.7 42.7 45.3 44.5 42.8 r 45.3 r 46.1 r 45.5 r 51.6 52.6 81.1 83.5 85.9 88.4 89.9 89.8 89.6 89.8 89.5 90.4 68.1 68.5 68.8 69.2 69.6 69.8 70.0 70.2 70.4 70.6 219.3 219.3 224.5 230.5 231.4 237.2 252.1 262.9 264.5 262.1 45.3 43.2 42.0 41.2 40.8 40.2 41.4 43.5 43.3 42.3 113.5 115.1 119.2 122.5 123.4 122.9 124.4 121.0 125.3 126.6 80.6 88.6 97.5 106.3 116.2 123.2 132.8 146.0 224.4 239.7 253.8 262.0 266.8 236.4 239.8 243.1 2.7 4.2 8.4 17.0 26.9 76.6 101.3 127.1 10.6 14.7 20.3 21.2 28.4 36.1 44.3 56.1 2.4 2.4 6.4 33.4 61.4 150.9 182.2 138.0 0.6 .9 3.1 9.5 14.9 36.0 47.6 40.2 132.8 239.8 101.3 44.3 182.2 134.2 135.6 137.0 138.0 139.3 140.3 140.9 141.8 143.0 144.2 145.3 141.0 239.4 238.7 240.1 238.9 242.5 244.0 245.8 244.5 243.4 242.9 241.6 243.1 104.5 112.5 116.0 115.0 120.9 122.7 124.2 125.8 126.0 126.0 126.5 127.1 47.3 48.9 48.8 50.6 55.1 56.0 52.7 52.1 53.0 r 56.5 r 55.2 56.1 166.7 159.6 154.0 146.7 141.1 139.7 138.8 139.1 137.6 137.8 138.7 138.0 1 Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions. Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. 2 Travelers checks are a component of money stock but are not shown here. NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. NOTE.—See p. 26 for overall measures. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Installment credit extended Period 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 .... 1982: Nov Dec 1983: Jan.... Feb..... Mar Apr May June July .... Aue: Sept Oct Nov . Total 2 Automobile 210,740 257,600 297,668 324,777 306,076 334,508 344,901 31,691 30,777 63,743 75,641 87.981 93,901 83,454 93,240 95,997 10,177 9,716 Installment credit liquidated Revolving Total 2 Automobile 43,934 87,596 105,125 120,174 128,068 139,829 150,061 12,778 12,491 189,179 222,138 254,589 286,396 304,628 316,291 331,805 29,676 28,359 53,278 60,437 69,245 79,186 82,977 84,745 91,099 8,643 8,225 1 Through 1982 calculated as the difference between credit extensions and credit liquidations. Beginning 1983, calculated as change in amount outstanding. 2 Includes "mobile home" and "other," not shown separately. Revolving 41,764 81,348 96,090 111,546 126,653 135,362 145,696 12,739 11,990 Amount outstanding, end of period, seasonally adjusted Net change in amount outstanding 1 Total 2 Automobile 21,561 35,462 43,079 38,381 1,448 18,217 13,096 2,015 2,418 2,725 735 2,582 2,271 2,696 4,406 4,840 3,388 2,375 4,885 4,671 10,465 15,204 18,736 14,715 477 8,495 4,898 1,534 1,491 625 -233 1,221 689 1,313 1,973 2,421 2,521 285 1,772 1,238 Revolving 2,170 6,248 9,035 8,628 1,415 4,467 4,365 39 501 68 -135 1,177 917 514 1,210 821 313 479 1,145 1,300 Total 2 Automobile 190,725 226,646 269,392 307,115 308,137 326,274 339,316 336,897 339,316 342,041 342,776 345,358 347,629 350,325 354,731 359,571 362,959 365,334 370,219 374,890 67,798 82,890 101,863 116,523 116,808 125,323 130,235 128,824 130,235 130,860 130,627 131,848 132,537 133,850 135,823 138,244. 140,765 141,050 142,822 144,060 Revolving 16,505 36,427 45,004 53,174 54,650 58,722 62,830 62,326 62,830 62,898 62,763 63,940 64,857 65,371 66,581 67,402 67,715 68,194 69,339 70,639 NOTE.—Extensions and liquidations not available after December 1982. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES Commercial and industrial loans rose again in December. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 -ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 600 LOANS AND LEASES 400 400 INVESTMENT N OTHER SECURITIES 200 200 160 160 120 120 80 80 »NVESTMENT IN U.S. TREASURY SECURITIES III III I l l l l l 40 1975 1976 111III INI 1977 I I I I I I l l l 11 ill 1111II 1980 1979 1978 1981 1982 40 1983 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AVERAGES OF WEDNESDAY FIGURES SOURCE.- BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Depository institutions 3 All commercial banks 1 Loans and leases Period 1976: 1977: 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: Dec Dec ..... . Dec Dec .. .. Dec Dec Dec Deep... 1982- Dec 1983: Jan .. Peb Mar Apr May June July Aug. Sept Oct Nov r Dee* Total loans and investments Total 2 804.6 891.5 1,013.5 1,135.9 1,239.6 1,316.3 1,412.0 1,566.8 555.0 632.5 747.0 849.9 915.1 973.9 1,042.0 1,131.7 1,412.0 1,042.0 1,428.2 1,436.3 1,450.1 1,460.6 1,474.4 1,488.0 1,499.9 1,513.2 1,520.3 1,532.9 1,548.9 1,566.8 1,045.0 1,048.7 1,056.3 1,059.5 1,063.3 1,070.6 1,080.9 1,091.0 1,096.3 1,104.1 1,115.7 1,131.7 1984: Jan p 1 Data are 2 Excludes 3 averages of Wednesday figures. loans to commercial banks in the United States. Data are averages of daily figures. 28 Borrowings (millions of dollars, unadjusted) Keserves adjusted for changes in reserve requirements Investments Commercial and industrial loans U.S. Treasury securities 190.9 210.9 245.9 291.2 326.8 358.0 392.3 413.1 100.8 99.8 93.8 94.5 110.0 111.0 130.9 188.1 148.8 159.3 172.8 191.5 214.4 231.4 239.2 247.0 26.80 28.00 29.44 30.71 32.46 33.75 36.23 37.59 26.74 27.43 28.57 29.24 30.77 33.11 35.60 36.82 26.52 27.81 29.21 30.38 31.94 33.43 35.73 37.03 62 558 874 1,473 1,617 636 697 748 12 54 134 82 116 53 33 96 392.3 130.9 239.2 36.23 35.60 35.73 697 33 395.2 394.9 396.2 392.9 392.9 395.0 399.2 402.5 402.6 404.7 407.8 413.1 139.8 144.5 151.0 157.8 166.1 171.2 172.9 174,4 176.9 182.3 186.2 188.1 243.3 243.1 242.8 243.4 245.0 246.2 246.1 247.8 247.1 246.5 247.1 247.0 35.63 36.10 36.80 37.15 37.13 37.61 37.80 37.69 37.72 37.62 37.41 37.59 35.10 35.52 36.01 36.14 36.18 35.98 36.35 36.15 36.28 36.78 36.50 36.82 35.09 35.66 36.37 36.68 36.68 37.13 37.29 37.25 37.22 37.12 36.88 37.03 500 557 852 993 902 1,714 1,382 1,573 1,441 837 912 748 33 39 53 82 98 121 172 198 191 142 119 96 37.44 36.73 36.82 r Other securities Total Nonborrowed Required Total Seasonal NOTE.—Beginning Dec, 1981, bank loans and investments and reserves aggregates have been reduced because of shifts from U.S. banking offices to International Banking Facilities (IBFs). Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External Period Total Credit market funds Internal * Total 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: I n M IV 1983: I n TTT* Total Securities and mortgages Loans and short-term paper Total Other2 Capital expenditures 3 Increase in financial assets Discrepancy (sources less uses) 192.4 190.1 156.9 210.8 254.1 317.5 345.7 333.2 365.8 308.6 91.7 85.6 119.7 134.2 157.4 175.7 188.8 189.5 230.6 240.5 100.7 104.4 37.2 76.6 96.7 141.8 156.9 143.7 135.2 68.1 56.7 69.9 30.7 54.5 72.4 80.5 88.2 90.9 92.2 84.1 20.7 26.3 38.7 38.2 35.8 32.8 20.9 52.4 22.5 45.2 36.0 43.6 -8.0 16.3 36.6 47.7 67.3 38.5 69.7 38.9 44.0 34.5 6.5 22.1 24.3 61.3 68.8 52.8 43.0 -16.0 191.9 190.1 150.9 201.8 237.6 293.6 346.7 320.1 324.3 250.9 121.5 137.9 109.7 148.3 175.1 201.6 219.4 221.2 261.6 231.2 70.5 52.2 41.2 53.5 62.5 92.0 127.3 98.9 62.7 19.7 0.5 .0 6.0 9.0 16.5 23.8 -1.0 13.1 41.6 57.7 302.8 329.9 327.4 274.5 233.5 240.2 244.0 244.3 69.3 89.7 83.4 30.2 102.8 89.9 89.0 54.6 24.8 38.6 39.6 77.8 78.0 51.3 49.4 -23.2 -33.4 -.2 -5.6 -24.4 232.1 279.3 270.4 222.0 242.4 242.2 240.1 200.2 -10.3 37.1 30.3 21.8 70.8 50.5 56.9 52.5 323.4 396.3 387.7 250.7 270.3 291.1 72.7 126.0 96.6 69.2 77.1 80.1 64.7 84.0 33.4 4.5 69 46.7 3.5 48.8 16.4 276.2 338.7 338.4 202.4 252.9 281.5 73.8 85.8 56.9 47.2 57.6 49.3 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained abroad.. 2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government, Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars, except as noted] Current assets Ind of period SIC series: 2 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 FTC-FRB series: 3 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982- I Total Cash U.S. Government securities Notes and accounts receivable Current liabilities Other current assets Inventories Total Notes and accounts payable Other current liabilities Net working capital Current ratio l 492.3 529.6 599.3 697.8 790.7 50.2 53.3 59.0 66.3 71.1 7.7 11.0 10.6 12.8 12.3 206.1 221.1 248.2 288.5 322.1 193.3 200.4 225.7 263.9 313.6 35.0 43.8 55.8 66.4 71.7 304.9 326.0 375.6 450.9 530.4 211.3 220.5 282.9 340.3 402.3 93.6 105.5 92.7 110.7 128.1 187.4 203.6 223.7 246.9 260.3 1.615 1.625 1.595 1.548 1.491 TTT IV 735.4 759.0 827.4 912.7 1,043.7 1,214.8 1,327.0 1,419.3 1,425.4 1,418.0 1,417.2 1,441.8 1,425.4 73.2 82.1 88.2 97.2 105.5 118.0 126.9 131.8 144.0 121.8 124.1 126.9 144.0 11.1 19.0 23.5 18.2 17.2 16.7 18.7 17.4 22.4 16.5 16.5 18.9 22.4 265.8 272.1 292.9 330.3 388.0 459.0 506.8 530.3 511.0 533.4 531.2 534.2 511.0 319.5 315.9 342.5 376.9 431.8 505.1 542.8 585.1 575.2 591.6 587.6 596.5 575.2 65.9 69.9 80.3 90.1 101.1 116.0 131.8 154.6 172.6 154.7 157.9 165.3 172.6 453.4 451.6 495.1 557.1 669.5 807.3 889.3 976.3 977.8 987.0 988.7 1,007.6 977.8 269.8 264.2 282.1 317.6 383.0 460.8 513.6 558.8 552.8 552.9 554.9 562.7 552.8 183.6 187.4 213.0 239.6 286.5 346.5 375.7 417.5 425.0 434.0 433.8 444.9 425.0 282.0 307.4 332.4 355.5 374.3 407.5 437.8 442.9 447.6 431.0 428.5 434.2 447.6 1.622 1.681 1.671 1.638 1.559 1.505 1.492 1.454 1.458 1.437 1.433 1.431 1.458 1983: I HP 1,436.5 1,464.2 139.7 145.7 25.8 27.5 517.9 534.3 573.2 570.5 179.9 186.2 986.3 997.7 543.2 551.6 443.1 446.1 450.2 466.5 1.456 1.468 n 1 Total current assets divided by total current liabilities. Based on data from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury. Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations, Federal Trade Commission and Department of Commerce. 2 3 NOTE.—SIC series not available after 1974. See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce, Federal Trade Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates fell in January. 1 * I An :,* *. ;.• / \ i / \l •J / * •$K£- A' /' \l DISCOUNT r RATE If FEDERAL f / RESERVE ^XJ? BANK OF J/ /" NEW YORK L:/ .A •*: ///A• i\ ./ \\ f / \' J iiy Ak :: I n :• "-A* "• i5 L M //I / M/ iJ S/ \ * \ V : \ /Kv '" ^ / ^ \ \ i ^ n » M If II i CORPORATE Aaa BONDS |~" T^^jJ (MOODY'S) ^^ J/ ^X X ^^ s ^ ^>| C /-" /\ [ TREASURY - \ / BILLS v / I./ V rP 1 A\ i 1 i i 1 i I ! 1 1 V M M 1I M M 1 1977 1976 M M 1 I I 1I I I J 1 | | 1 | M 1 1 1 1978 1 1979 1 11 MM | M 11 1 1 1M 1 1980 1981 M M 1 1 M M 1 M M 11 M M i M M i I I i I I IK 1982 1983 1984 ^ COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: SEE TABIE BB.OW [Percent per annum] U.S. Treasury security yields Period 3-month bills l Constant maturities 3-year 2 1 0-year High-pade municipal bonds (Standard3& Poor's) Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) Prime commercial paper, 6 months 4 4 Discount rate (N.Y. F.E. Bank)5 Prime rate charged 5by banks 7.221 10.041 11.506 r 14.029 10.686 8.63 8.29 9.72 11.55 14.44 12.92 10.45 8.41 9.44 11.46 13.91 13.00 11.10 5.90 6.39 8.51 11.23 11.57 9.47 8.73 9.63 11.94 14.17 13.79 12.04 Sept Oct Nov Dec ... 1984: Jan 7.810 8.130 8.304 8.252 8.19 8.82 9.12 9.39 9.05 8.71 8.71 8.96 8.93 9.64 9.91 9.84 9.76 9.66 10.32 10.90 11.30 11.07 10.87 10.96 11.13 10.93 10.46 10.72 10.51 10.40 10.38 10.85 11.38 11.85 11.65 11.54 11.69 11.83 11.67 9.45 9.48 9.16 8.96 9.03 9.51 9.46 9.72 9.57 9.64 9.79 9.90 9.61 11.79 12.01 11.73 11.51 11.46 11.74 12.15 12.51 12.37 12.25 12.41 12.57 12.20 8.15 8.39 8.48 8.48 8.31 9.03 9.36 9.68 9.28 8.98 9.09 9.50 9.18 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 11.50-11.00 11.00-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 11.00-10.50 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 Week ended: 1984: Jan 14 21 28 Feb 4 11 8.92 8.82 8.92 8.87 9.08 10.98 10.86 10.89 10.87 11.71 11.59 11.63 11.63 9.63 9.58 9.53 9.48 12.43 12.01 11.98 11.97 9.20 9.12 9.17 9.14 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 1978 . 1979 1980 . 1981 1982 1983 7.99 10.91 12.29 14.76 11.89 8.89 7.46 10.28 11.77 13.41 11.02 8.50 High-low 1983: Jan Feb . Mar Aw May June July AufiT .. 1 Rate on new issues within period; bank-discount basis. Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Bank-discount basis. Prior to November 1, 1979, data are for 4-6 months paper. 6 Average effective rate for year; high and low rate for month and week. 2 30 9.06 12.67 15.27 18.87 14.86 10.79 New-home mortgage yields (FHLBB)6 9.56 10.78 12.66 14.70 15.14 12.57 High-low 13.49 13.16 13.41 12.42 12.67 12.36 12.50 12.38 12.54 12.25 r 12.34 12.42 12.30 6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Bates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Most stock price indexes rose in January. INDEX, DEC 31, 1965=50 100 INDEX, DEC. 31,1965=50 1100 20 EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) 10 — 10 1984 1976 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Common stock prices 1 Period New York Stock Exchange indexes (I)ec. 31, 1965 — 5O) Composite 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983- Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July AufiT Sept Get Nov Dec r 1984- Jan Week ended: 1984' Jan 14 21 28 Feb 4 1 Industrial Transportation 3 Finance Utility Dow-Jones industrial average 3 Standard & Poor's composite index (194143 = 10)4 Dividendprice ratio 53.70 58.32 68.10 74.02 68.93 92.63 83.25 84.74 87.50 90.61 94.61 96.43 96.74 93.96 96.70 96.78 95.36 94.92 96.16 58.23 64.76 78.70 85.44 78.18 107.45 95.37 97.26 100.61 104.46 109.43 112.52 113.21 109.50 112.76 112.87 110.77 110.65 112.16 43.50 47.34 60.61 72.61 60.41 89.36 75.65 79.44 83.28 85.26 89.07 92.22 92.91 88.06 94.56 95.41 97.68 98.79 97.98 39.22 38.20 37.35 38.91 39.75 47.00 45.59 45.92 45.89 46.22 47.62 46.76 46.61 46.94 48.16 48.73 48.50 47.00 47.43 56.65 61.42 64.25 73.52 71.99 95.34 85.66 86.57 93.22 99.07 102.45 101.22 99.60 95.76 97.00 94.79 94.48 94.25 95.79 820.23 844.40 891.41 932.92 884.36 1,190.34 1,064.29 1,087.43 1,129.58 1,168.43 1,212.86 1,221.47 1,213.93 1,189.21 1,237.04 1,252.20 1,250.01 1,257.64 1,258.89 96.02 103.01 118.78 128.05 119.71 160.41 144.27 146.80 151.88 157.71 164.10 166.39 166.96 162.42 167.16 167.65 165.23 164.36 166.39 5.28 5.47 5.26 5.20 5.81 4.40 4.79 4.74 4.59 4.44 4.27 4.26 4.21 4.35 4.24 4.25 4.31 4.32 4.27 97.08 96.69 95.22 93.93 113.25 112.83 111.02 109.20 99.66 99.92 95.88 91.81 47.80 47.43 47.22 47.40 97.12 96.43 94.42 93.57 1,278.29 1,266.71 1,235.78 1,213.06 167.88 167.16 164.77 162.66 4.24 4.25 4.33 4.42 Average of daily closing prices. Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. Includes 30 stocks. 4 Includes 500 stocks. 5 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings2 Common stock yields (percent) 5 2 Earningsprice ratio 12.03 13.46 12.66 11.96 11.60 8.12 7.49 7.98 price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first three months of fiscal year 1984, there was a budget deficit of $63.3 billion, compared to a budget deficit of $68.3 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS 900 900 800 800 700 700 BUDGET OUTLAYS 600 600 500 500 400 400 BUDGET SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-) _-~— -*^__ ~"~ -100 onn " ^^^^ r -100 "\__ 1 1976 1 1977 1 1978 1 1979 1 1980 1 1981 1 1982 1 1983 onn 1 1984 1985 FISCAL YEARS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Budget receipts Period Fiscal year or period: 1972 .... 1973 1974 . . 1975 1976 Transition quarter 1977 .... 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 (estimates)1 1985 (estimates)1 Cumulative total first 3 months: Fiscal year 1983 Fiscal year 1984 1 . Budget surplus or deficit (— ) Off-budget surplus or deficit (-) Total surplus or deficit (— ) Federal debt (end of period) Gross Held by the public 207.3 230.8 263.2 279.1 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 670.1 745.1 230.7 245.6 267.9 324.2 364.5 94.2 400.5 448.4 491.0 576.7 657.2 728.4 r 796.0 853.8 925.5 -14.8 -4.7 -45.2 -66.4 -13.0 -44.9 48.8 -27.7 59.6 -57.9 110.6 -195.4 183.7 -180.4 0.1 -1.4 -8.1 -7.3 -1.8 -8.7 -10.4 -12.5 -14.2 -21.0 -17.3 12.4 -16.2 -14.8 23.4 -14.9 -6.1 -53.2 -73.7 -14.7 -53.6 -59.2 -40.2 -73.8 -78.9 -127.9 r - 207.8 -199.9 -195.2 437.3 468.4 486.2 544.1 631.9 646.4 709.1 780.4 833.8 914.3 1,003.9 1,147.0 1,381.9 1,591.6 1,828.4 323.8 343.0 346.1 396.9 480.3 498.3 551.8 610.9 644.6 715.1 794.4 929.4 1,141.8 1,324.8 1,517.8 137.0 149.4 205.3 212.7 -68.3 63.3 -1.1 .9 -69.4 -62.4 1,201.9 1,415.3 991.4 1,177.9 Estimates from the Budget of the United States Government, FT 1985, February 1984. 32 Budget outlays 23.4 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION in the first three months of fiscal year budget outlays were $7.4 1984, budget receipts were $12.4 billion higher than a year earlier and billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS Of DOLLARS 300 200 - 100 CORPORATION INCOME TAXES BUDGET OUTLAYS 600 600 NONDEFENSE 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 1976 1977 1978 1979 1982 1980 1981 FISCAL YEARS 1984 1983 1985 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Budget outlays Budget receipts National defense Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes 122.4 131.6 157.6 181.0 217.8 244.1 670.1 745.1 285.9 297.7 288.9 293.3 328.4 40.6 41.4 54.9 60.0 65.7 64.6 61.1 49.2 37.0 66.6 76.5 137.0 149.4 68.2 71.5 7.0 11.9 Period Total Other Total Total Department of Defense, military International affairs Social security and medicare Health and Net income secu- inter- Other est rity Fiscal year or period: 1975 279.1 298.1 1976... 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 .. 1984 (estimates) * .. 1985 (estimates) 1 Cumulative total first 3 months: Fiscal year 1983 Fiscal year 1984 355.6 399.6 463.3 . . . 517.1 599.3 617 8 600.6 116.1 125.0 143.0 158.6 179.8 324.2 364.5 400.5 448.4 208.4 252.2 270.8 274.6 576.7 657.2 728.4 796.0 853.8 925.5 310.2 340.2 1 Estimates from Budget of the United States Government, FY 1985, February 1984. 2 Starting in 1985 military retired pay will be financed from a trust fund in the income security function. The national defense function will include accrual charges to pay for retirement benefits earned by currently active duty personnel, and these will be offset in the undistributed offsetting receipts (employer share, employee retirement). In this table the data for the earlier years have not been adjusted to be comparable to this new usage. 61.8 66.0 491.0 205.3 212.7 2 237.5 272.0 51.4 54.9 264.4 7.1 5.7 5.0 6.1 6.3 10.9 11.3 10.1 9.0 13.5 17.5 50.0 53.3 2.1 4.0 84.9 87.9 95.6 103.0 115.0 132.8 156.0 182.9 85.6 89.4 97.5 105.2 117.7 135.9 159.7 187.4 210.5 205.0 231.0 2 202.5 223.3 240.2 260.3 56.8 69.2 70.1 70.8 76.6 97.6 112.4 119.5 134.9 126.6 2 147 3 23.2 26.7 29.9 35.4 42.6 52.5 68.7 85.0 89.8 108.2 116.1 74.1 83.7 93.6 114.2 117.3 129.1 126.4 123.8 128.5 127.6 2 112.2 55.0 57.8 34.4 32.1 22.6 25.7 39.8 38.1 77.5 89.7 104.4 116.6 130.6 150.6 178.7 NOTE.—The Social Security Amendments of 1983 require that social security and medicare be shown in the budget as a separate function. In previous budgets social security was in the income security function and medicare was in the health function. The data in this table have been reconstructed to be comparable for all years shown. Data shown here exclude the transition quarter. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the third quarter of 1983, Federal receipts fell $7.4 billion (annual rate) and expenditures rose $13.8 billion, yielding a deficit of $187.3 billion. In the fourth quarter, according to preliminary estimates, expenditures rose $14.5 billion,* receipts data are incomplete. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 800 700 SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-) -100 -200 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 I 1981 1982 SOURCE-. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Government expenditures Federal Government receipts Period Total Fiscal year: 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Calendar year: 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 p 1982- I n in .. IV 1983- I n in rv f Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Contributions for social insurance Total Purchases of goods and services Transfer payments Grantsin-aid to State and local governments Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Surplus or deficit Less: Wage accruals less disbursements national income and product accounts . 480.8 525,9 610,3 627.8 630.7 222.6 250.4 289.3 310.4 295.3 76.1 69.9 70.5 51.3 54.3 29.1 35.5 53.6 50.3 50.7 153.1 170.0 196.9 215.7 230.4 495.6 576.5 668.1 740.0 816.4 164.1 189.3 218,5 251.0 274.7 201.8 239.4 279.3 310.2 344.7 79.1 86.7 90.1 83.4 85,7 40,6 50.7 67,7 82.2 90.6 9.9 10.4 12.5 13.2 20.3 -0.0 ,0 .1 -.0 — 4 -14.8 -50.7 -57.8 -112.2 -185.7 493.6 540.9 627.0 617.4 643.3 230.6 257.7 298.6 304.7 295.8 74.2 70.3 67.5 46.5 59.3 159.5 173.9 204.5 217.9 234.4 509.7 602.1 689.2 764.4 826.2 306.5 308.5 300.6 303.0 47.6 48.4 47.8 42.1 215.8 217.6 218.9 219.3 728.0 735.4 773.5 820.9 168.3 197.0 229.2 258.7 275.2 249.7 244.1 261.7 279.2 209.2 251.5 286.6 321.1 344.5 302.5 311.2 325.9 344.8 80.5 88.7 87.9 83.9 86.5 82.5 85.1 83.0 85.0 42.4 53.4 73.2 84.9 96.7 79,7 82.3 88.6 89.1 9.2 11.5 12.4 15.8 22.8 13.4 12.7 14.2 22.8 -.0 .0 619.5 622.2 615.2 612.6 29.4 39.0 56.4 48.3 53.9 49.5 47.7 47.9 48.3 -16.1 -61.2 -62.2 -147.1 -182,9 -108.5 -113.2 -158,3 -208.2 623.3 652.6 645.2 297.7 304.2 286.9 294.3 48.6 59.8 66.6 48.6 56.0 55.5 55.3 228.5 232.6 236.2 240.2 806.6 818.7 832.5 847.0 273.5 273.7 278.1 275.6 340.3 347.0 343,5 347.3 85.8 86.7 87.2 86.5 88.4 91.8 101.0 105.7 18.6 18.2 22.3 31.9 .0 -1.3 -.4 .0 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget. 34 .1 -.0 -.4 .0 .0 .0 -183.3 -166.1 -187.3 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES [1967 = 100] Consumer prices (unadjusted) Industrial production (seasonally adjusted) Period 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981... . 1982 1983: Jan Feb . Mar Am" May June July Aug Sent Oct Nov.. Dee* 1 United States Canada Japan France Germany 138.2 146.1 152.5 147.0 151.0 138.6 137.4 138.1 140.0 142.6 144.4 146.4 149.7 151.8 r 153.8 r 155.0 r !56 1 156.9 152.7 157.8 167.6 165.1 166.6 148.8 149.3 149.2 149.9 151.6 153.3 156.7 158.6 r 160.5 r 163.7 164.5 189.7 201.1 215.3 225.2 227.5 228.4 227.3 225.9 231.5 230.6 231.1 233.3 234.0 241.2 241.9 241.4 152 154 161 160 157 154 156 156 155 156 160 157 160 160 157 155 152.0 154.1 161.8 162.3 159.9 156.2 154 154 157 155 157 160 157 157 158 Italy United Kingdom United States * 124.2 127.8 132.8 124.1 119.2 121.7 123.6 124.2 122.8 123.0 123.9 121.8 125.4 125.2 125.3 181.5 195.4 217.4 246.8 272.4 289.1 293.1 293.2 293.4 295.5 297.1 298.1 299.3 300.3 301.8 302.6 303.1 303.5 145.1 147.9 157.6 166.5 162.7 159.1 150.0 148.9 148.2 141.5 148.5 145.1 146.9 134.9 150.4 r 148.6 1524 Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. Canada Japan Prance Germany 185.9 202.5 221.0 243.5 273.9 r 303.5 312.5 313.9 317.1 317.1 317.9 321.5 322.9 324.5 324.5 326.5 326.5 327.5 243.0 252.3 261.3 282.2 296.2 304.1 306.6 305.5 307.5 308.6 312.0 309.7 308.3 307.4 311.4 314.2 312.2 214.5 233.9 259.1 294.2 332.7 373.1 390.1 392.9 396.5 401.8 404.5 406.9 410.4 412.8 416.0 419.2 420.9 155.9 160.2 166.8 175.9 186.3 196.2 199.8 200.0 199.8 200.3 201.1 201.8 202.6 203.2 203.6 203.6 204.1 Italy 255.2 286.2 328.5 398.0 472.4 549.4 602.7 610.5 616.0 622.2 628.2 632.2 638.5 641.1 649.4 660.4 667.0 United Kingdom 292.4 316.6 359.0 423.6 473.9 514.7 523.5 525.8 526.7 534.1 536.4 537.7 540.6 543.0 545.4 547.3 549.2 Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, Office of Trade Information and Analysis, Trade Performance Division, in International Economic Indicators. U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Merchandise exports 1 Period and foreign exports General imports Domestic exports Total domestic Total2 Food, beverages, and tobacco Crude materials and fuels Merchandise trade balance Merchandise imports Manufactured goods Food, beverages, and tobacco Total2 Crude materials and fuels 3 Manufactured goods Total (c.i.f. value) 4,257 5,398 6,379 8,360 9,352 10,427 8,823 11,042 13,368 15,504 18,519 21,415 Ixports (f.a.s.) less imports (customs value) Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (f.a.s.) Ixports (f.a.s.) less imports (c.i.f.) 762 -688 -2,430 -2,590 -2,300 -2,020 148 -1,440 -3,265 -3,530 -3,364 -3,030 F.a.s. value Monthly average: 1975* 1976*. 1977* 1978* . 1979* 1980 8,971 9,602 10,103 11,973 15,155 18,386 8,847 9,462 9,919 11,762 14,886 18,043 1,399 1,436 1,330 1,717 2,049 2,534 1,266 1,341 1,548 1,746 2,352 2,810 5,913 6,437 6,679 7,873 9,716 11,991 8,209 10,290 12,533 14,563 17,455 20,406 827 991 1,186 1,312 1,478 1,546 2,716 3,457 4,463 4,325 5,949 7,831 Customs value 1981 1982 1983... 19,473 17,683 16,707 19,075 17,256 16,326 1982: Dec 1983: Jan . Peb Mar Apr May June 16,347 17,393 16,326 16,752 16,074 15,566 17,008 16,629 16,630 17,387 16,951 16,848 17,180 July AufiT Sept Get Nov Dec. 2,767 2,248 2,248 2,752 2,793 2,463 12,857 11,643 11,034 21,748 20,329 21,504 1,529 1,485 1,568 7,739 6,200 5,670 11,873 12,002 13,621 22,779 -2,275 21,240 -2,647 22,490 -4,797 15,913 1,966 2,420 10,648 19,154 10,988 20,002 -2,808 2,312 2,224 2,307 2,079 2,010 2,194 2,114 2,086 2,337 2,418 2,504 2,387 2,760 2,443 2,375 2,549 2,279 2,377 2,382 2,781 2,756 2,289 2,234 2,570 11,263 10,743 11,062 10,545 10,331 11,560 11,125 10,855 11,189 11,249 11,198 11,314 20,021 19,015 19,525 19,771 21,514 21,024 21,950 22,782 22,175 24,763 23,179 22,448 1,414 1,582 1,530 1,479 1,612 1,652 1,456 1,560 1,551 1,587 1,722 1,554 1,550 6,158 17,007 15,984 16,335 15,722 15,186 16,652 16,300 16,243 17,022 16,499 16,449 16,777 5,911 4,413 4,655 4,511 5,845 5,562 6,014 6,577 6,445 6,889 5,892 5,334 11,981 12,561 12,672 12,856 13,351 13,249 13,842 13,913 13,377 15,528 15,197 15,016 20,962 19,906 20,381 20,675 22,473 21,964 22,988 23,817 23,194 25,917 24,248 23,481 1 Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginning January 1978. 2 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. 3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. NOTE.—Imports on c.lf. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods. -2,628 -2,689 -2,774 -3,697 -5,948 -4,016 -5,321 -6,152 -4,788 -7,812 -6,331 -5,268 3306 -3,558 -5,783 3655 -3,569 -3,580 -3,630 -4,601 -6,907 -4,956 -6,359 -7,187 -5,807 -8,966 -7,401 6301 Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Islands exports are reflected in the figures for domestic and foreign exports combined and trade balance. 'Data for 1975-79 for domestic and foreign exports combined, total general imports, and trade balance include trade of the Virgin Islands. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS The merchandise trade deficit increased again in the fourth quarter of 1983, bringing the deficit for the whole year to $60.6 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* -15 -20 -25 -25 1984 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits (—)] Investment income 8 Merchandise l 2 Period 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 p Other services, net 3 Remittances, pensions, and other unilateral trans-1 fers Balance on current account balance Eeceipts Payments 107,088 114,745 120,816 142,054 184,473 224,237 237,019 211,217 200,009 -98,185 -124,228 151 907 -176,020 212 028 -249,781 -265,086 -247,606 -260,605 8,903 -9,483 -31,091 -33,966 -27,555 -25,544 -28,067 -36,389 -60,596 25,351 29,286 32,179 42,245 64,132 72,445 86,243 84,146 -12,564 -13,311 14 217 -21,680 32 914 -42,875 -52,760 -56,842 12,787 15,975 17,962 20,565 31,218 29,570 33,483 27,304 55,636 54,996 52,241 48,344 -61,739 -60,850 -65,319 -59,698 6 103 -5,854 13 078 -11,354 20,761 22,316 21,569 19,499 13 824 -14,779 -14,748 -13,491 6,937 7,537 6,821 6,008 -51 201 54 -26 -208 -561 -557 -769 2,050 1,914 1,906 1,951 2,625 3,236 -4,854 -4,190 -2,061 -1,802 -1,742 -2,431 r 17,697 19,027 20,622 -12,608 -13,326 -13,694 5,089 5,701 6,928 516 117 -21 -935 -1,222 -745 2,114 2,234 2,092 -2,026 -7,832 -9,915 -1,561 -3,587 -1,823 -9,655 -2,061 -11,976 TTT IV IV travel and transportation receipts Balance on goods and services * Imports n . ... n m.p. p Net Exports 1982- I 1983- I. Net Net military transactions r r r r 49,352 48,759 r 50,429 51,469 1 Excludes military grants. 2 Adjusted from Census data 3 r -58,221 - 63,470 -68,641 70 273 - 8,869 - 14,711 r - 18,212 -18,804 r for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. 36 Net -2,792 -2,558 1,528 -3,565 621 -3,573 1 778 -2,935 -2,'286 -1,434 -598 -1,355 179 -2,095 -746 559 22,749 4,598 9,205 4,711 5,272 -9,894 6,013 -10,340 4,686 5,735 7,477 7,172 11,523 8,060 7,822 -3,177 18,136 -4,613 4,207 -4,998 -4,617 -14,511 -5,106 -15,446 -964 -5,649 421 -7,056 4,592 -6,931 -8,034 -11,211 NOTE.—Merchandise data revised for 1983; other data to be revised later. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 564 1,434 -6,596 -6,621 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $0.5 billion in the third quarter compared to a decrease of $5.2 billion in the second quarter. Liabilities to foreigners and international financial institutions reported by U.S. banks increased $17.4 billion compared to a $4.0 billion increase in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 60 -20 -20 -40 40 -60 -60 1976 1984 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Foreign assets in the U.S., net [increase /capital inflow (+)] 2 U.S. assets abroad, net [increase /capitiid outflow (— ) ] Period Total 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: I n m IV 1983: I n HP.... U.S. official reserve assets l 2 Other U.S. Government assets U.S. private assets Total Other foreign assets Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy U.S. official reserve assets, net 1 (unadjusted, end of period) 16,226 18,747 19,312 18,650 18,956 26,756 30,074 33,958 -39,703 51 269 -34,785 61 130 -64,331 -86,052 -110,601 -118,045 -849 -2,558 -375 732 -1,133 -8,155 -5,175 4965 -3,474 4 214 -35,380 -44,498 -30,717 57 202 -59,453 -72,757 -100,348 -107,348 15,670 36,518 51,319 64,036 38,752 54,922 80,678 87,866 7,027 17,693 36,816 33,678 13665 15,566 5,430 3,172 8,643 18,826 14,503 30,358 52,416 39,356 75,248 84,694 -31,456 -40,934 26 099 -19,553 -1,089 -1,132 794 -1,950 -807 -29,560 1 489 38313 -2,502 -22,803 16670 934 27,124 31,612 17,613 11,517 -3,061 1,930 2,642 1,661 30,185 29,682 14,972 9,855 3,768 7,887 15,082 14,657 -729 881 -1,190 1,042 29,944 30,671 30,993 33,958 -21,699 -658 -6,429 -787 16 529 -1,053 -1,162 1 188 16,452 10,956 18,487 49 1,973 -3,235 16,403 8,983 21,722 8,833 -644 -82 -212 792 -1,355 34,261 33,876 33,066 -3,693 -4,660 -3,746 -5,140 -5,078 -5,732 19 859 488 -5,770 1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the IMF. 2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. Foreign official assets Statistical discrepancy Allocations of special drawing rights (SDBs) 5,897 10,544 — 2,023 1,139 1,152 1,093 12,540 25,404 29,556 24,238 41,390 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment—Nonfarm Business 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets Components of Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets Consumer Installment Credit Bank Loans and Investments, and Reserves Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: p Preliminary. r Revised. c Corrected. ... Not available (also, not applicable). For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, B.C. 20402. Price $4.25 (single copy) ($5.35 foreign). Subscription price: $25.00 per year; $31.25 for foreign mailing. 38 O U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1984 0—30-484