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98th Congress, 2d Session

Economic Indicators
JANUARY

1984

Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the




Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1984

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
ROGER W. JEPSEN, Iowa, Chairman
LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Vice Chairman
SENATE
WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)
JAMES ABDNOR (South Dakota)
STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho)
MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia)
ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York)
LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas)
WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin)
EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)
PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana)
PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland)
AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California)
DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin)
JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York)
CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio)
MARJORIE S. HOLT (Maryland)
DAN LUNGREN (California)
OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine)

BRUCE R. BARTLETT, Executive Director

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
MARTIN FELDSTEIN, Chairman
WILLIAM A. NISKANEN, Member
WILLIAM POOLE, Member
[PUBLIC LAW 120—SlsT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the
Joint Economic Committee be authomed to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators/' and that
a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant
at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two
copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the
Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for
distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies
printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.
Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $4.25 a single copy
l$5.35 foreign), or by subscription at $25.00 per year ($31.25 for foreign
mailing) from:
SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402

11



TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
NATIONAL PRODUCT

MKUSb NATlUNAJj FKODUUT

According to preliminary estimates for the fourth quarter of 1983, gross national product rose $69.8 billion or 8.6
percent, both at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 4.5 percent (annual rate) and the
implicit price deflator rose at a 3.9 percent annual rate.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
3,600

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
3,600

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES ,

3,200

3,200
^^—^ ^
2,800

__
__

^n

GNP
IN CURRENT DOLLARS

—

^

2,400

X

—

2,800

2,400
—

^

2,000

2,000

:

^|'

^Xl

1,600

1,600

\-~~7

** *" ""

GNP
1N 1972 DOLLA RS

+ ~~~~
— «**

^ •- •"*

+ ~~~

•••» ^

—

-~""

1,200

1

1

1,200
1

1

1

1

1976

1975

1

1

1

1977

1

1
1978

1

1

1

1

1

1979

1

1

1980

1

1

1

1981

\

1

1

1

1982

1

1

1983

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1,185.9
1,326.4
1,434.2
1,549.2
1,718.0
1,918.3
2,163.9
2,417.8
2,631.7
2,954.1
3,073.0
3,309.5

1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 p
1982: I

n
m
IV

1983: I

\

Gross
national
product

n.
m
iv *

3,021.4
3,070.2
3,090.7
3,109.6
3,171.5
3,272.0
3,362.2
3,432.0

Personal
consumption
expenditures

737.1
812.0
888.1
976.4
1,084.3
1,204.4
1,346.5
1,507.2
1,668.1
1,857.2
1,991.9
2,158.6
1,938.9
1,972.8
2,008.8
2,046.9
2,073.0
2,147.0
2,181.1
2,233.1

Gross
private
domestic
investment

195.0
229.8
228.7
206.1
257.9
324.1
386.6
423.0
401.9
474.9
414.5
471.3
422.9
432.5
425.3
377.4

404.1
450.1
501.1
529.8

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,




Government purchases of
goods and services

Exports and imports of goods and
services

Net
exports
0.7
14.2
13.4
26.8
13.8
40
-1.1
13.2
23i9
26.3
17.4
-10.6
29.9
33.3
.9
5.6
17.0
-8.5
-18.3
-32.6

Federal
Exports

Imports

Total
Total

77.5
109.6
146.2
154.9
170.9
182.7
218.7
281.4
338.8
368.8
347.6
335.8
358.4
364.5
346.0
321.6
326.9
327.1
341.1
348.1

76.7
95.4
132.8
128.1
157.1
186.7
219.8
268.1
314.8
342.5
330.2
346.4
328.5
331.2
345.0
316.1
309.9
335.6
359.4
380.7

253.1
270.4
304.1
339.9
362.1
393.8
431.9
474.4
537.8
595.7
649.2
690.2
629.8
631.6
655.7
679.7
677.4
683.4
698.3
701.7

101.7
102.0
111.0
122.7
129.2
143.4
153.6
168.3
197.0
229.2
258.7
275.2
249.7
244.1
261.7
279.2
273.5
273.7
278.1
275.6

National
defense

73.1
72.8
77.0
83.0
86.0
92.8
100.3
111.8
131.2
154.0
179.4
200.3
168.1
175.2
183.6
190.8
194.4
199.4
201.2
206.2

Nondefense
28.5
29.1
33.9
39.7
43.2
50.6
53.3
56.5
65.9
75.2
79.3
74.9
81.7
68.9
78.1
88.5
79.1
74.3
76.9
69.4

State and
local

151.4
168.5
193.1
217.2
232.9
250.4
278.3
306.0
340.8
366.5
390.5
415.0
380.0
387.5
394.0
400.5
404.0
409.7
420.2
426.1

Final
sales

1,175.7
1,307.9
1,420.1
1,556.1
1,706.2
1,895.3
2,137.4
2,403.5
2,641.5
2,935.6
3,097.5
3,316.4
3,047.1
3,081.4
3,095.6
3,165.9
3,210.9
3,286.6
3,353.7
3,414.3

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS
[Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Gross
national
product

Period

1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 p
1982: I

n
m
IV

1983- I

n
m

IV'

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Nonresidential
fixed

Residential fixed

Government purchases of
goods and services

Exports of goods
and services

Gross private
domestic investment

Change
in
business
inventories

Federal

Net
exports

Exports

Total

Imports

Total

National
defense

Nondefense

State
and local

Final
sales

1,185.9
1,254.3
1,246.3
1,231.6
1,298.2
1,369.7
1,438.6
1,479.4
1,475.0
1,513.8
1,485.4
1,534.8

737.1
767.9
762.8
779.4
823.1
864.3
903.2
927.6
931.8
956.8
970.2
1,011.4

121.0
138.1
135.7
119.3
125.6
140.3
158.3
169.9
165.8
174.4
166.1
168.0

63.8
62.3
48.2
42.2
51.2
60.7
62.4
59.1
47.1
44.7
37.8
52.7

10.2
17.2
11.6
67
7.8
13.3
16.0
7.3
44
8.5
94
-2.4

0.7
15.5
27.8
32.2
25.4
22.0
24.0
37.2
50.3
43.0
28.9
11.7

77.5
97.3
108.5
103.5
110.1
112.9
126.7
146.2
159.1
159.7
147.3
138.9

76.7
81.8
80.7
71.4
84.7
90.9
102.7
109.0
108.8
116.7
118.4
127.2

253.1
253.3
260.3
265.2
265.2
269.2
274.6
278.3
284.3
286.5
291.8
293.3

101.7
95.9
96.6
97.4
96.8
100.4
100.3
102.1
106.4
110.4
116.6
118.0

73.1
68.3
66.9
66.4
64.9
65.4
65.7
67.4
70.0
73.6
78.8
84.2

28.5
27.6
29.7
31.0
31.8
35.0
34.7
34.8
36.4
36.8
37.8
33.7

151.4
157.4
163.6
167.8
168.4
168.8
174.3
176.2
177.9
176.1
175.2
175.4

1,175.7
1,237.1
1,234.7
1,238.4
1,290.4
1,356.4
1,422.6
1,472.2
1,479.4
1,505.3
1,494.8
1,537.2

1,485.8
1,489.3
1,485.7
1,480.7

961.4
968.8
971.0
979.6

173.6
167.1
163.3
160.5

36.3
37.8
36.5
40.6

-10.2
-3.4
-1.3
-22.7

35.2
33.4
24.0
23.0

151.8
154.5
146.4
136.5

116.6
121.1
122.4
113.5

289.4
285.8
292.2
299.7

114.5
110.3
116.9
124.4

75.5
77.8
80.4
81.4

39.1
32.5
36.5
43.0

174.9
175.4
175.3
175.2

1,495.9
1,492.7
1,487.0
1,503.4

1,490.1
1,525.1
1,553.4
1,570.5

986.7
1,010.6
1,016.0
1,032.2

159.9
163.0
170.1
178.9

45.5
52.6
56.8
56.1

-15.4
-5.4
3.8
7.5

20.5
12.3
11.4
2.5

137.3
136.2
140.7
141.5

116.8
123.9
129.2
139.0

292.9
292.1
295.2
293.2

118.4
117.6
118.9
116.9

82.7
84.2
84.2
85.6

35.7
33.4
34.7
31.2

174.5
174.5
176.3
176.3

1,505.5
1,530.5
1,549.7
1,563.0

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
[1972 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]
Personal consumption
expenditures
Gross
national
product

Period

Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable
goods

Gross private
domestic investment

Services

Exports and imports of
goods and services

Government purchases of goods and
services
Federal

Nonresidential
fixed

Residential fixed

Exports

Imports

Total

National
defense

Nondefense

State
and local

1972 .
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981 .
1982
1983 p

100.00
105.75
115.08
125.79
132.34
140.05
150.42
163.42
178.42
195.14
206.88
215.63

100.0
105.7
116.4
125.3
131.7
139.3
149.1
162.5
179.0
194.1
205.3
213.4

100.0
101.7
108.2
117.3
123.9
129.2
136.4
145.0
156.2
167.3
174.8
178.6

100.0
108.5
123.4
132.5
137.2
143.6
153.4
169.9
188.1
202.5
209.0
213.8

100.0
104.7
113.0
121.6
129.6
139.3
150.0
162.3
178.8
195.8
211.6
224.5

100.0
103.8
115.4
132.2
138.6
146.3
157.2
170.8
186.2
201.9
209.7
206.9

100.0
109.1
120.3
,131.0
140.7
158.0
178.3
200.5
218.5
233.5
240.2
247.4

100.0
112.7
134.8
149.6
155.3
161.9
172.6
192.5
212.9
230.8
236.0
241.7

100.0
116.7
164.6
179.6
185.6
205.5
214.1
246.1
289.4
293.4
278.9
272.3

100.0
106.3
114.9
126.0
133.5
142.8
153.1
164.8
185.2
207.7
222.0
233.3

100.0
106.6
115.1
124.9
132.4
141.9
152.7
166.0
187.5
2d9.3
227.7
237.8

100.0
105.6
114.2
128.2
135.7
144.6
153.8
162.5
180.8
204.5
210.0
222.0

100.0
107.0
118.0
129.4
138.3
148.4
159.7
173.7
191.5
208.1
222.9
236.6

1982: I

203.36
206.15
208.03
210.00

201.7
203.6
206.9
209.0

172.9
174.2
176.1
176.1

206.8
207.6
210.2
211.2

206.3
209.4
213.4
217.2

208.1
211.1
209.6
209.9

240.8
240.9
240.9
238.4

236.1
236.0
236.3
235.6

281.8
273.6
281.8
278.5

218.0
221.3
223.8
224.4

222.7
225.1
228.3
234.3

209.1
212.3
213.9
205.7

217.3
220.9
224.7
228.5

212.83
214.55
216.44
218.53

210.1
212.5
214.7
216.3

177.3
177.5
179.1
180.4

210.6
213.4
215.5
215.5

219.8
223.1
225.7
229.1

207.7
206.3
206.3
207.5

244.9
243.9
249.0
251.2

238.0
240.2
242.5
246.0

265.4
270.7
278.1
274.0

230.9
232.7
233.8
235.8

234.9
236.7
238.8
240.7

221.7
222.6
221.7
222.2

231.6
234.8
238.3
241.6

n. . .
m
IV

..

1983: I .

n

ffl

jyp

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES
[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Personal consumption expenditures

Gross national product
Period

1972

..

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979..
1980
1981
1982 ..
1983P

Constant
(1972)
dollars

Current
dollars

.. ..

1982- I

n
m
IV

1983- I

n
mp
iv

Implicit
price
deflator

Chain price
index

10.1
11.8
8.1
8.0
10.9
11.7
12.8
11.7
8.8
12.2
4.0
7.7

5.7
5.8
-.6
-1.2
5.4
5.5
5.0
2.8
-.3
2.6
-1.9
3.3

4.2
5.8
8.8
9.3
5.2
5.8
7.4
8.6
9.2
9.4
6.0
4,2

-1.4
6.6
2.7
2.5

55
1.0
-1.0
-1.3

8.2
13.3
11.5
8.6

2.6
9.7
7.6
4.5

Fixedweighted
price index
(1972
weights)

Chain price
index

Fixedweighted
price index
(1972
weights)

5.8
4.2

5.3
4.7
5.9
4.7

9.6
10.2
9.4
9.9
11.0
11.1
11.8
11.9
10.7
11.3
7.3
8.4
7.5
7.2
7.5
7.8

7
2^2
5.6
5.0
4.5
2.7
.5
2.7
1.4
4.2
2.4
3.1
.9
3.6

3.7
5.7
10.1
7.6
5.1
5.8
7.0
9.0
10.2
8.4
5.8
4.0
5.0
4.0
6.5
4.1

3.6
6.1
10.4
7.7
5.3
6.0
7.3
9.3
10.7
9.0
5.9
4.2
5.2
3.9
6.4
5.1

3.5
6.1
10.4
7.8
5.3
6.2
7.4
9.7
11.1
9.2
5.7
4.1
4.8
3.5
6.7
5.1

3.4
4.3
4.7
4.5

5,2
15.1
6.5
9.9

2.9
10.0
2.2
6.5

2.2
4.6
4.2
3.1

2.3
4.7
4.2
4.5

1.6
4.9
4.4
4.5

4.0
6.0
9.4
9.1
5.8
6.3
7.8
9.5
9.8
9.5
6.4
4.3

4.3
5.6
3.7
3,8

4.1
6.0
9.1
9.2
5.7
6.1
7.6
8.9
8.9
9.4
6.5
4.4
5.6
5.2
5.9
5.0

5.5
3.3
3.6
3.9

3.6
4.3
4.5
4.6

NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter.

Implicit
price
deflator

Constant
(1972)
dollars

Current
dollars

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND
PROFITS
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gross domestic
product of nonfinancial
corporate business
(billions of dollars)
Period
Current
dollars

1972

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977 ...
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 p.. .,
1982: I

n
in ..
IV

1983:

I

n

HP

1

1972
dollars

Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollars) *

Total
cost and
profit 2

Capital
consumption
allowances
with
capital
consumption
adjustment

Indirect
business
taxes 3

Total

Profits
tax
liability

Profits
after
tax 4

Compensation per
hour of
all
employees
(dollars)

678.0
731.9
708.2
694.2
745.5
795.8
846.3
876.1
859.5
887.5
857.7
893.9

1.000
1.038
1.156
1.282
1.343
.418
.508
.617
.793
.960
2.072
2.146

0.092
.093
.112
.137
.141
.145
.155
.171
.198
.217
.245
.244

0.113
.114
.127
.140
.141
.141
.144
.149
.172
.199
.209
.220

0.659
.692
.786
.837
.878
.928
.998
1.094
1.218
1.302
1.397
1.420

0.028
.031
.042
.044
.040
.040
.044
.050
.065
.074
.076
.066

0.107
.107
.090
.124
.144
.163
.168
.154
.140
.169
.145
.195

0.049
.055
.059
.059
.071
.075
.079
.079
.078
.074
.048
.062

0.058
.053
,030
.065
.073
.088
.089
.075
.062
.095
.097
.134

7.664
7.849
7.555
7.774
8.002
8.144
8.216
8.201
8.126
8.332
8.373

5.052
5.429
5.937
6.507
7.024
7.558
8.198
8.969
9.894
10.850
11.700

1,764.9
1,780.2
1,786,8
1,775.0

864.3
860.5
859.5
846.4

2.042
2.069
2.079
2,097

.236
.242
.247
.254

.204
.207
.209
.215

1.374
1.394
1.403
1.419

.080
.079
.072
.073

.148
.147
.148
.135

.053
.051
.049
.040

.095
.096
.099
.095

8.342
8.330
8.409
8.421

11.463
11,614
11.795
11,952

1,817.6
1,892.4
1,957.8

856.0
885.8
909.4

2.123
2.136
2.153

.252
.245
.241

.218
.223
.221

1.428
1.416
1.412

.070
.066
.065

.156
.187
.214

.049
.062
.070

.108
.125
.144

8.492
8.627
r
8.716

12.126
12.213
r
12.304

Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1.972 dol-

This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with
the decimal point shifted two places to the left.




Net
interest

Output
per hour
of all
employees (1972
dollars)

678.0
759.4
818.9
890.0
1,001.3
1,128.4
1,276.2
1,416.8
1,540.7
1,739.9
1,776.7
1,918.4

lars,
2

Compensation of
employees

Corporate profits with inventory
valuation and capital consumption
adjustments

3
4

Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies,
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor
(Bureau of Labor Statistics).

NATIONAL INCOME
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

National
income

Period

Compensation of
employees1

Proprietors' income with
inventory valuation and
capital consumption
adjustments

Farm

1972

1973

1974 ....
1975
1976.
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 p...
1982: I

...;

n....
m
IV..- .......

1983:

I

n
m. .

718.0
801.3

963.6
1,086.2
1,160.7
1,239.4
1,379.2
1,550.5
1,760.3
1,966.7
2,116.6
2,373.0
2,450.4
2,646.9

1,036.3
1,152.1
1,301.1
1,458.1
1,599.6
1,769.2
1,865.7
1,990.1

2,419.7
2,448.9
2,458.9
2,474.0

1,834.2
1,859.9
1,879.5
1,889.0

2,528.5
2,612.8
2,686.9

1,923.7
1,968.7
2,011.8
2,056.0

877.5

931.4

IV*...
1

Nonfarm

Profits with inventory valuation
adjustment and without capital
consumption adjustment
Total

96.6
108.3
94.9
110.5
138.1
167.3
192.4
194.8
175.4
192.3
164.8

Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.)

226.3

162.0
166.8
168,5
161.9
181.8
218.2
248.4

Inventory
valuation
adjustment

Profits
before tax

Total

21.0
22.6
23.5
23,0
23.5
24.8
26.6
27.9
31.5
41.4
49.9
54.8
47.4
49.0
50.9
52.3
54.1
54.8
53.9
56.2

58.1
61.0
62.2
65.4
75.0
84.8
92.2
100.2
95.6
89.7
87.4
107.6
83.7
88.1
87.8
90.2
98.4
106.2
111.2
114.4

18.7
32.8
26.5
24.6
19.1
19.1
26.3
31.9
21.8
30.5
21.5
21.0
27.4
16.8
15.8
26.0
22.2
21.0
15.5
25.3

Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption
adjustments

Rental
income of
persons
with
capital
consumption
adjustment

94.0
105.6
96.7
120.6
151.6
178.5
205.1

100.6
125.6
136.7
132.1
166.3
194.7
229.1

209.6

252.7
234.6
227.0

191.7
203.3

174.2

165.9
195.5
167.7
170.3
168.3
157.2
168.0
192.7
210.8

205.3

173.2
178.8
177.3
167.5
169.7
203.3

229.1

Capital
consumption
adjustment

-6.6
-20.0
-40.0
-11.6
. -14.7
-16.2
-24.0
-43.1
-42.9
-23.6
-8.4
-9.8
-5.5
-8.5
-9.0
-10.3
-1.7
-10.6
-18.3
-8.5

2.7
2.7
-1.8
-10.1
-13.5
-11.3
-12.7
-14.8
-16.3
-11.0
— 1.1
30.8
-5.6
-3.5
.1
4.7

13.9
25.6
37.6
46.3

Net
interest

51.2
60.2
76.1
84.5
87.2
102.5
121.7
153.8
192.6
249.9

261.1
247.2
265.0
268.3
256.4
254.7
248.3
243.8

246.1
250.4

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1972
1973.. ..

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979 .
1980
1981 .
1982
1983 p
1982: I

n

III............

1983:

IV,.
I
II. .
Ill
IV"

Total
durable
goods

976.4
1,084.3
1,204.4
1,346.5
1,507.2
1,668.1
1,857.2
1.991.9
2,158.6

111.1
123.3
121.5
132.2
156.8
178.2
200.2
213.4
214.7 236.1
244.5
278.6

1,938.9
1,972.8
2,008.8
2,046.9

239.4
242.9
243.4
252.1

2,073.0
2,147.0
2,181.1
2,233.1

258.5
277.7
282.8
295.2

737.1-

812.0
888.1

Motor
vehicles
and
parts

52.4 - '. 41.7
57.1
47.1
50.4
50.6
55.8
53.5
72.6
59.1
65.7
84.8
95.7
72.8
96.6
81.8
90.7
86.3
101.6
93.3
93.5
109.9
101.8
132.8
106.4
91.7
93.9
107.6
109.4
93.5
94.9
116.1
118.4
97.3
100.8
133.9
102.9
135.6
106.4
143.2

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




Furniture and
household
equipment

Retail sales of new
passenger cars
(millions of units)

Nondurable goods

Durable goods
Total
personal
consumption
expenditures

Other

Total
nondurable
goods

Food

16.9
19.2
20.5
22.9
25.2
27.7
31.7
35.1
37,7"
41.2
41.1
44.0

300.6
333.4
373.4
407.3
441.7
478.8
528.2
600.0
668.8
733.9
761.0
804.3

154.9
172.1
193.7
213.6
230.6
249.8
275.9
311.6
345.1
375.9
396.9
422.5

41.3
41.4
40.5
41.0

749.7
754.7
766.6
773.0

388.1
394.7
400.4
404.5

42.9
43.1
44.3
45.7

777.1
799.6
814.8
825.9

411.7
419.6
426.4
432.4

Clothing
and
shoes

Gasoline
and oil

55.4
61.4
64.8
69.6
75.3
82.6
92.4
99.1
104.6
115.3
119.0
125.6
118.4
119.0
119.2
119.6
120.0
126.4
125.1
130.9

25.4
28.6
36.6
40.4
44.0
48.1
51.2
66.6
84.8
94.6
91.5
90.6
94.0
89.6
91.3
91.1
87.3
90.3
93.1
91.6

Services
Other

64.9
71.2

78.2
83.7
91.9
98.2
108.8
122.8
134.3
148.1
153.5
165.7
149.2
151.5
155.6
157.9
158.1
163.3
170.2
171.1

325.3
355.2
393.2
437.0
485.7
547.4

618.0
693.7
784.5

887.1
986.4
1,075.7
949.7
975.2
998.9
1,021.8
1,037.4
1,069.7
1,083.5
1,112.0

Domestics

Imports

9.3
9.6
7.4
7.0
8.5
9.0
9.2
8.2
6.6
6.2
5.8
6.8
5.8
5.7
5.6
6.0
6.1
6.9
7.0
7.2

1.6
1.8
1.4
1.6
1.5
2.1
2.0
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.2
2.0
2.2
2.5
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.7

SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income increased $24.1 billion (annual rate) in December, following a rise of $20.3 billion in November.
Wages and salaries rose $9.9 billion in December compared to a rise of $4.4 billion in November.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)

3,200

3,200
2,800

1983
• SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

1974.
1975
1976
1977

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982 ...
1983 p
1982- Dec
1983: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
AufiT

Sept
Oct r
Nov r

Total
personal
income

Wage and
salary
disbursements l

1,168.6
1,265.0
1,391.2
1,540.4
1,732.7
1,951.2
2,165.3
2,435.0
2,578.6
2,741.8

765.7
806.4
889.9
983.2
1,106.3
1,237.6
1,356.7
1,493.2
1,568.1
1,664.4

2,645.0

1,591.8

2,652.6
2,650.5
2,670.1
2,689.0
2,719.3
2,732.6
2,747.6
2,756.4
2,781.6
2,812.8
2,833.1
2,857.2

1,608.9
1,606.3
1,616.8
1,632.1
1,652.2
1,660.9
1,673.5
1,680.5
1,691.8
1,710.5
1,714.8
1,724.7

Proprietors' income 3
Other labor
income l 2

55.8
64.5
75.9
89.4
102.5
114.9
128.0
143.5
156.6
173.4
161.2
162.6
164.2
166.0
168.1
170.1
172.2
174.3
176.3
178.4
180.6
182.6
184.9

Farm

26.5
24.6
19.1
19.1
26.3
31.9
21.8
30.5
21.5
21.0
26.1
22.9
21.3
22.3
22.1
21.4
19.4
16.6
14.9
15.0
21.2
25.6
29.1

1
The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of
employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of
wage accruals over wage disbursements.
* Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workmen's
compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items.
3
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.




Nonfarm

62.2
65.4
75.0
84.8
92.2
100.2
95.6
89.7
87.4
107.6
92.5
96.7
97.8
100.8
103.1
106.6
109.0
109.9
110.9
113.0
114.1
114.1
115.0

Rental
income of
persons 4

23.5
23.0
23.5
24.8
26.6
27.9
31.5
41.4
49.9
54.8
51.0
53.8
54.1
54.3
54.6
54.8
55.0
55.3
50.8
55.8
56.0
56.2
56.5

Personal
dividend
income

29.1
29.9
36.5
39.6
45.3
50.8
56.8
62.8
66.4
70.5
68.3
68.7
68.9
68.9
69.0
69.4
69.5
70.2
70.9
71.6
72.3
72.9
73.4

Personal
interest
income

112.4
123.2
132.5
152.8
179.4
218.7
266.0
341.3
366.2
366.3
364.3
360.0
356.0
355.7
355.0
356.9
359.4
364.4
370.2
375.2
378.3
380.9
383.7

Transfer

payments 5

141.2
178.3
194.3
207.9
223.8
250.3
297.6
337.2
374.5
403.5
403.0
395.4
398.1
402.0
402.7
406.7
406.7
403.5
402.2
401.9
402.1
408.2
412.3

4

Less:
Personal
contributions
for social
insurance

47.9
50.4
55.5
61.1
69.8
81.1
88.7
104.6
112.0
119.5
113.1
116.6
116.2
116.8
117.6
118.8
119.5
120.1
120.3
121.1
122.2
122.4
122.4

Nonfarm
personal
income 6

1,131.8
1,229.1
1,359.3
1,506.5
1,689.7
1,899.3
2,119.5
2,377.0
2,527.6
2,691.2
2,589.4
2,600.2
2,599.7
2,618.4
2,637.5
2,668.5
2,683.8
2,701.4
2,711.8
2,736.7
2,761.6
2,777.4
2,798.0

With capital consumption adjustment.
Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments.
Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income,
and agricultural net interest.
5

6

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME
Real per capita disposable income rose again in the fourth quarter of 1983.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
2,600

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
2,600
2,400
2,200
2,COO
1,800
1,600

4,000

4,000

3,000

3,000
1984

1976
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Personal
income

Period

Less:
Personal
tax and
nontax
payments

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Equals:
Disposable
personal
income

Less:
Personal1
outlays

Equals:
Personal
saving

Per capita
disposable personal
income

Per capita personal
consumption
expenditures

Current
dollars

Current
dollars

1972
dollars

Billions of dollars
1972 .
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978...
1979
1980..
1981
1982...
1983 p.

.

951.4
,065.2
,168.6
,265.0
,391.2
,540.4
1,732.7
1,951.2
2,165.3
2,435.0
2,578.6
2,741.9

141.0
150.7
170.2
168.9
196.8
226.4
258.7
301.0
336.5
387.4
402.1
406.3

810.3
914.5
998.3
1,096.1
1,194.4
1,314.0
1,474.0
1,650.2
1,828.9
2,047.6
2,176.5
2,335.6

1972
dollars

52.6
79.0
85.1
94.3
82.5
78.0
89.4
96.7
110.2
135.3
125.4
113.1

3,860
4,315
4,667
5,075
5,477
5,965
6,621
7,331
8,032
8,906
9,377
9,968

3,860
4,080
4,009
4,051
4,158
4,280
4,441
4,512
4,487
4,587
4,567
4,671

Saving as
percent of
disposable
personal
income

Population
(thou-2
sands)

Percent

Dollars
757.7
835.5
913.2
1,001.8
1,111.9
1,236.0
1,384.6
1,553.5
1,718.7
1,912.4
2,051.1
2,222.5

Percent
change in
real per
capita
disposable
personal
income

3,511
3,831
4,152
4,521
4,972
5,468
6,048
6,695
7,326
8,078
8,581
9,213

3,511
3,623
3,566
3,609
3,774
3,924
4,057
4,121
4,092
4,162
4,180
4,317

2.9
5.7
-1.7
1.0
2.6
2.9
3.8
1.6
-.6
2.2
-.4
2.3

8.6
8.5
8.6
6.9
5.9
6.1
5.9
6.0
6.6
5.8
4.8

209,924
211,939
213,898
215,981
218,086
220,289
222,629
225,106
227,694
229,916
232,118
234,297

6.5

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1982: I

n
m
IV

1983: I ...

n
m

IV"....

2,528.1
2,563.2
2,591.3
2,632.0

400.2
404.2
399.8
404.1

2,127.9
2,159.0
2,191.5
2,227.8

1,997.0
2,031.9
2,068.4
2,107.0

130.8
127.1
123.0
120.8

9,199
9,315
9,430
9,562

4,562
4,574
4,558
4,576

8,382
8,511
8,644
8,785

4,156
4,180
4,178
4,204

-4.3
1.1
-1.4
1.6

6.1
5.9
5.6
5.4

231,304
231,790
232,387
232,990

2,657.7
2,713.6
2,761.9
2,834.2

401.8
412.6
400.1
410.6

2,255.9
2,301.0
2,361.7
2,423.6

2,134.2
2,209.5
2,245.9
2,300.1

121.7
91.5
115.8
123.5

9,661
9,834
10,069
10,307

4,599
4,629
4,690
4,764

8,878
9,176
9,299
9,497

4,226
4,319
4,331
4,390

2.0
2.6
5.4
6.5

5.4
4.0
4.9
5.1

233,501
233,984
234,564
235,138

1
Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net).
2
Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages
for the period.




Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).

FARM INCOME
In the fourth quarter of 1983, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income rose $16.5 billion (annual
rate) and net farm income rose $14.8 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
200

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
200

160

160

120

120

100

100

80

80

60

60

-NET FARM INCOME-

40

40

/N
20

%

i
I
I

%

i
i
i
i

\_1

20

I
%^

10
1977

1976

I I I

i i i

1979

1980

1978

I
1981

1982

I I
1983

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

10
1984

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Income of farm operators from farming
Net farm income

Gross farm income
Period

Cash marketing receipts
Total1
Total

1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 *

.. .

1982: I

n
m
IV

1983: I rr

n.
m pr
IV

1

Livestock and
products

Current
dollars

1967 dollars 3

102.9
108.7
127.2
150.4
150.1
167.1
162.2
158.6

95.4
96.2
112.9
131.8
140.5
142.3
144.6
142.4

46.3
47.6
59.2
68.6
67.8
69.2
70.2
70.7

49.0
48.6
53.7
63.2
72.7
73.1
74.4
71.7

-1.5
1.1
.8
4.9
-5.3
7.6
-1.9
-8.8

82.7
88.9
99.5
118.1
128.6
137.0
140.1
136.0

20.1
19.8
27.7
32.3
21.5
30.1
22.1
22.6

11.8
10.9
14.2
14.8
8.7
11.0
7.6
7.6

168.4
158.5
155.9
165.8

147.6
142.0
142.3
146.3

70.7
71.0
70.2
68.9

76.9
71.0
72.1
77.4

2.0
-1.7
-3.5
-4.2

141.0
141.5
140.3
137.6

27.4
17.0
15.6
28.2

9.7
5.9
5.3
9.6

156.4
153.1
154.1
170.6

144.5
141.3
145.0
138.8

71.5
70.8
70.1
70.3

73.0
70.5
74.9
68.5

136.6
135.1
135.3
137.0

19.8
18.0
18.8
33.6

6.7
6.1
6.3
11.1

Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash
income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms.
2
Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average
prices during the year.




Crops

Value of
inventory
changes 2

Production
expenses

3

-8.6
-9.9
-12.3
-4.4

Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index (Department of Labor).

Source: Department of Agriculture, except as noted.

CORPORATE PROFITS
In the third quarter, according to current estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $25.8 billion (annual rate)
from their second quarter level and after-tax profits rose $16.9 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
320

320

40 -#

40

1975

1976

1977

1983
ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment

1

Profits after tax

Domestic industries

Nonfinancial

Period
Total

2

Total

1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 p
1982:

I

n..
m
IY

1983: I

n
m

IV p
1
2

Financial

Total3

Tax
liability

Wholesale and
retail
trade

Total

Dividends

Undistributed
profits

Inventory
valuation
adjustment

94.0
105.6
96.7
120.6
151.6
178.5
205.1
209.6
191.7
203.3
165.9
195.5
167.7
170.3
168.3
157.2

85.3
92.0
80.4
107.6
137.4
163.4
185.4
179.0
161.9
179.7
144.1
173.5
147.0
148.5
147.6
133.1

15.3
15.9
15.0
11.8
17.1
23.1
31.0
30.3
26.9
20.3
20.9
31.4
15.5
20.4
22.2
25.5

70.0
76.0
65.4
95.8
120.3
140.3
154.4
148.6
134.9
159.4
123.2
142.1
131.5
128.1
125.4
107.6

40.7
45.5
39.0
52.6
69.2
78.3
86.9
85.6
72.9
86.7
59.0
69.4
60.9
61.4
65.5
48.3

13.4
13.9
12.5
21.3
22.4
26.6
26.9
27.1
23.6
32.8
27.6
34.2
30.2
27.4
25.2
27.5

100.6
125.6
136.7
132.1
166.3
194.7
229.1
252.7
234.6
227.0
174.2
205.3
173.2
178.8
177.3
167.5

41.6
49.0
51.6
50.6
63.8
72.7
83.2
87.6
84.8
82.8
59.2
75.7
60.3
61.4
60.8
54.0

58.9
76.6
85.1
81.5
102.5
122.0
145.9
165.1
149.8
144.1
115.1
129.6
112.9
117.4
116.5
113.5

24.4
27.0
29.9
30.8
37.4
40.8
47.0
52.7
58.6
64.7
68.7
73.3
67.7
67.8
68.8
70.4

34.5
49.6
55.2
50.7
65.1
81.2
98.9
112.4
91.2
79.5
46.4
56.3
45.2
49.5
47.7
43.1

-6.6
-20.0
-40.0
-11.6
-14.7
-16.2
-24.0
-43.1
-42.9
-23.6
-8.4
-9.8
-5.5
-8.5
-9.0
-10.3

168.0
192.7
210.8

147.8
172.2
187.4

29.8
33.8
31.9

118.0
138.4
155.5

53.7
68.1
78.2

27.8
33.9
36.7

169.7
203.3
229.1

61.5
76.0
84.9

108.2
127.2
144.1

71.4
72.0
73.7
75.9

36.7
55.2
70.4

— 1.7
-10.6
-18.3
-8.5

See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.




Manufacturing

Profits
before tax

3
Includes industries not shown separately.
-.
_.
. _,
„
._
. . , .
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
According to preliminary estimates for the fourth quarter of 1983, business fixed investment rose $20.2 billion
((annual rate) and residential investment outlays fell $0.7 billion. There was a $17.7 billion increase in inventories
following an increase of $8.5 billion in the third quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

600

600

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

500

/L.

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC
INVESTMENT

500

400

400

300

300

200

200

RESIDENTIAL
FIXED INVESTMENT

100

100

-100

-100
1975

1983

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gross
private
domestic
investment

Period

1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 p
1982: I

n
m
IV

1983: I

n
mp
IV

;. .

Nonresidential fixed investment
Total

Change in business
inventories

Residential fixed investment
Total

Nonfarm
structures

Farm
structures

Producers'
durable
equipment

Total

Nonfarm

195.0
229.8
228.7
206.1
257.9
324.1
386.6
423.0
401.9
474.9
414.5
471.3

121.0
143.3
156.6
157.7
174.1
205.2
248.9
290.2
308.8
352.2
348.3
347.7

44.1
51.0
55.9
55.4
58.8
64.4
78.7
98.3
110.9
133.4
141.9
131.4

76.9
92.3
100.7
102.3
115,3
140.8
170.2
191.9
197.9
218.8
206.4
216.3

63.8
68.0
57.9
55.3
72.0
95.8
111.2
118.6
102.9
104.3
90.8
130.5

61.5
65.6
54.8
52.4
68.8
92.0
107.0
114.0
98.1
99.8
86.0
125.5

0.7
.7
1.3
1.0
1.1
1.5
1.7
1,7
1.8
1.3
1.5
1.5

1.5
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.2
3.6

10.2
18.5
14.1
-6.9
11.8
23.0
26.5
14.3
-9.8
18.5
-24.5
-6.9

9.6
15.2
16.0
-10.5
13.9
21.9
25.4
8.6
-4.5
10.9
-23.1
-1.2

422.9
432.5
425.3
377.4

361.3
352.7
342.3
337.0

144.7
144.2
140.0
138.6

216.5
208.5
202.2
198.4

87.3
91.0
87.9
96.8

83.2
86.1
83.4
91.2

.9
1.6
1.3
2.3

3.2
3.3
3.3
3.3

-25.7
-11.2
-4.9
-56.4

-27.6
8.8
-2.3
-53.7

404.1
450.1
501.1
529.8

332.1
336.3
351.0
371.2

132.9
127.4
130.9
134.5

199.3
208.8
220.2
236.8

111.3
128.4
141.5
140.8

106.7
123.3
136.3
135.6

1.3
1.5
1.6
1.6

3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7

-39.4
14.5
8.5
17.7

-39.0
-10.3
18.4
26.0

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




Structures

Producers'
durable
equipment

EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT—NONFARM
BUSINESS
According to the Commerce Department October-December surveys, nonfarm business spending for new plant and<
equipment for the year 1984 is expected to be nearly 10 percent above the 1983 level; spending in 1983 is
expected to be 4 percent below 1982.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
500

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
500

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

400

400
TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT

X

300

300

200

200

NONMANUFACTURING

MANUFACTURING

TOO

100

80

80

60

60

40

40

_LJ_
1976

1977

1979

1978

1981

1980

1982

1984

1983

-I/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW
SOURCE.-DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Plant and equipment
Period

Total

Plant

Nonmanufaeturing

Manufacturing

Equipment
Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable
goods

Total

Mining

Transportation

Public
utilities

Trade
and

services 1

Communication
and

other 2

Starts of
plant and
equipment
projects,
manufacturing 3

1976
1977
1978
1979
1980 ..... ...
1981
1982
1983 4
1984 4

171.45
198.08
231.24
270.46
295.63
321.49
316.43
303.20
333 32

71.12
80.19
92.63
105.75
117.57
133.35
134.58

100.33
117.89
1-38.60
164.68
178.06
188.14
181.86

59.95
69.22
79.72
98.68
115.81
126.79
119.68
111.18
125.98

28.47
34.04
40.43
51.07
58.91
61.84
56.44
51.45
59.87

31.47
35.18
39.29
47.61
56.90
64.95
63.23
59.74
66.11

111.50
128.87
151.52
171.77
179.81
194.70
196.75
192.01
207.34

7.44
9.24
10.21
11.38
13.51
16.86
15.45
12.00
13.48

8.89
9.40
10.68
12.35
12.09
12.05
11.95
11.25
10.96

22.37
26.79
29.95
33.96
35.44
38.40
41.95
42.62
44.17

49.30
56.54
68.66
79.26
81.79
86.33
86.95
88.02
96.35

23.51
26.90
32.02
34.83
36.99
41.06
40.46
38.11
42.38

59.39
77.73
88.41
113.50
123,58
135.61
104.35

1982:

HE
IV

313.76
303.18

134.43
127.32

179.33
175.86

118.26
110.23

56.61
50.51

61.65
59.72

195.51
192.95

14.57
13.41

11.29
12.33

43.02
43.00

86.88
84.36

39.75
39.84

25.31
23.62

1983:

I
II

125.40
125.60
130.59

167.62
167.86
174,12

109.86
108.79
111.12
114.97

50.74
48.48
53.06
53.52

59.12
60.31
58.06
61.45

183.17
184.67
193.59
206.62

12.03
10.91
11.93
13.14

11.04
10.88
11.00
12.10

41.61
41.48
42.22 .
45.17

82.38
85.85
91.06
92.79

36.11
35.54
37.38
43.42

23.35
27.71
29.98

IV

293.03
293.46
304.70
321.60

1984: I 44
II

323.07
325 42

119.00
120.96

57.18
58.09

61.81
62.86

204.08
204.47

12.25
13.68

10.78
11.42

41.82
42.30

96.98
95.03

42.25
42.03

in 4

1
Wholesale and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and personal, business, and prolessional
services.
2
"Other" consists of construction; social services and membership organizations; and forestry,
fisheries, and agricultural services.

10



3
4

Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during given period,
Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late October-December 1983, corrected
for biases,
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE
Seasonally adjusted civilian employment rose 249,000 in January and unemployment fell 169,000.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
116

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

1976

1984

*16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted]

Period

Resident
Armed
Forces

NSA

NSA

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1982: Dec
1983: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1984: Jan

163,541
166,460
169,349
171,775
173,939
175,891
174,864
175,021
175,169
175,320
175,465
175,622
175,793
175,970
176,122
176,297
176,474
176,636
176,809
177,219

1,631
1,597
1,604
1,645
1,668
1,676
1,665
1,667
1,664
1,664
1,671
1,669
1,668
1,664
1,682
1,695
1,695
1,685
1,688
1,686

Labor force
including
.
o
resident
Armed
Forces

103,882
106,559
108,544
110,315
111,872
113,226
112,538
112,344
112,352
112,399
112,646
112,619
113,573
113,489
113,799
113,924
113,561
113,720
113,824
113,901

Employment
including
resident
Armed
Forces

97,679
100,421

100,'907
102,042
101,194
102,510
100,644
100,821
100,836
100,980
101,277
101,431
102,411
102,889
103,166
103,571
103,665
104,291
104,629
104,876

Nonagrieultural
Civilian
labor force

102,251
104,962
106',940
108,670
1 10^204

111,550
110,873
110,677
110,688
110,735
110,975
110,950
111,905
111,825
112,117
112,229
111,866
112,035
112,136
112,215

1
Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find full•time
work, etc.
2
*
Labor force as percent of noninstitutional population (both including resident Armed Forces).
3
Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population.




Unemployment

Civilian employment

Noninstitutional
population
including
resident
Armed
Forces

Total

Agricultural

96,048

3,387

98,824
99,303
100,397
99,526
100,834
98,979
99,154
99,172
99,316
99,606
99,762
100,743
101,225
101,484
101,876
101,970
102,606
102,941
103,190

3,347
3,364
3,368
3,401
3,383
3,429
3,420
3,415
3,386
3,392
3,374
3,479
3,499
3,449
3,308
3,240
3,257
3,356
3,271

Total

92,661
95,477
95,938
97,030
96,125
97,450
95,550
95,734
95,757
95,930
96,214
96,388
97,264
97,726
98,035
98,568
98,730
99,349
99,585
99,918

Part-time
for
economic
reasons 1
3,298
3,373

4,064
4,499
5,852
5,997
6,367
6,678
6,362
6,169
6,077
5,965
5,886
5,700
5,866
6,027
5,724
5,848
5,712
5,943

Total

6,202
6,137
7,637
8,273

10,678
10,717
11,894
11,523
11,516
11,419
11,369
11,188
11,162
10,600
10,633
10,353
9,896
9,429
9,195
9,026

15
weeks
and
over

1,414
1,241

1,871
2,285
3,485
4,210
4,660
4,623
4,613
4,587
4,396
4,510
4,486
4,398
4,078
3,889
3,655
3,527
3,369
3,201

Labor force
participation
rate (percent)

Total 2

Civilian 3

63.5
64.0
64.1
64.2
64.3

63.2
63.7

64.4
64.4
64.2
64.1
64.1
64.2
64.1
64.6
64.5
64.6
64.6
64.3
64.4
64.4
64.3

63.8
63.9
64.0
64.0
64.0
63.8
63.8
63.8
63.9
63.8
64.3
64.2
64.3
64.3
64.0
64.0
64.0
63.9

NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.
Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1979.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

11

SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
The seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate, which includes resident Armed Forces in the labor force, fell to
7.9 percent in January from 8.1 percent in December. The unemployment rate for all civilian workers fell to 8.0
percent in January from 8.2 percent in December.
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

15

10

10

5 m*

1980

1980

1984

1981

1982

1983

1984

* UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group)

Period

Unemployment
rate, all
workers l

All
civilian
workers

Men
20 years
and over

Women
20 years
and
over

4.3
4.2
5.9
6.3

6.0
5.7

Both
sexes
16-19
years

Black and other
White

7.3

Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces.
2
Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours.




11.1

12.2

18.9
18.2
18.6
18.7
18.5
18.6
17.9
17.9
17.3
16.7
16.1
16.3

20.7
19.8
20.1
20.7
20.3
20.3
19.6
19.8
18.9
18.3
17.7
17.8

10.1
10.1
10.0

9.9
9.8
9.4
9.1
9.1
8.8
8.5
8.1
7.9

7.2
7.2
7.1
7.1
7.0
6.7
6.2
6.3
6.1
5.7
5.5
5.2

13.2
13.2
13.3
13.0
12.7
12.5
11.8
11.8
12.0
11.4
10.5
10.9

10.3
10.4
10.2
10.2
10.0
9.7
9.4
9.3
9.1
8.7
8.2
8.0

10.7
10.1
10.6
10.5
10.9
11.8
10.2
10.2
10.1
10.0
9.8
9.8

11.7
11.9
11.7
11.5
11.5
11.1
10.7
10.7
10.5
10.0
9.7
9.4

15.6

16.7

7.6

5.0

10.7

7.8

9.2

9.2

6.9

8.0

12

10.7

19.4

7.9

1

13.3

7.1

1984: Jan...

May...
June..
July..
Aug...
Sept ..
Oct....
Nov...

7.5

9.1
9.2
9.1
8.9
8.8
8.6
8.2
8.2
8.0
7.7
7.3
7.1

Dec ...

Apr ...

10.5

23.1
22.7
23.6
23.4
23.0
23.6
22.7
22.8
21.8
21.6
20.2
20.1

9.7
9.8
9.6
9.7
9.5
9.1
8.8
8.7
8.6
8.2
7.8
7.4

Mar...

20.9

9.0
8.9
8.8
8.5
8.5
8.6
7.9
8.0
7.8
7.5
7.2
7.1

10.4
10.4
10.3
10.2
10.1
10.0
9.5
9.5
9.2
8.8
8.4
8.2

Feb ...

9.3
9.2

6.9
7.3
9.6
9^5

18.9

10.3
10.2
10.2
10.1
9.9
9.8
9.3
9.3
9.1
8.7
8.3
8.1

1983: Jan...

6.5
6.3
7.9
8.5
11.0
10.9

9.2
10.4
11.7
12.2

9.6

9.1

Parttime
workers

9.0
8.8
8.8
9.4
10.5
10.4

24.3

10.0

10.6

Fulltime
workers

5.6
5.3

8.6
8.4

10.7

1982: Dec...

1980
1981
1982
1983

Women
who
maintain
families
8.5
8.3

5.6
5.5
6.9
7.3

8.8
8.9

5.8
7.1
7.6
9.7
9.6

Married
men,
spouse
present

Labor
force
time lost
(percent) 2

2.8
2.8
4.2
4.3
6.5
6.5

12.8
12.3
14.3
15.6
18.9
19.5

6.4
6.8
8.3
8.1

6.1

5.8
7.0
7.5
9.5
9.5

Experienced
wage and
salary
workers

11.9
11.3
13.1
14.2
17.3
17.8

5.2
5.1
6.3
6.7

6.0

Black

Total

16.4
16.1
17.8
19.6
23.2
22.4

1978
1979

By selected groups

By race

By sex and age

NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1979.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE PROGRAMS
|n January, the percentages of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 1526 weeks fell, and the percentages out of work for 5-14 weeks and for 27 weeks and over rose. Both measures of
average duration of unemployment—the mean and the median—rose in January.
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*

70

70

DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT

REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT

60

60

JOB LOSERS

AN
/
""'A

50

M

±«

40

V

50

LESS THAN
5 WEEKS

5-14
WEEKS

30

%

v

\
/
W

3

^

40

/^^

VA .V%w-^

30

REENTRANTS

20

20

NEW ENTRANTS
10

10

/

JOB LEAVERS

Illllllllll

0 lllHll|l|l( Mlllllllll
1980

1981

1982

Illllllllll

1983

1980

1984

1981

Illllllllll

Illllllllll

1982

1983

1984

'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Reason for unemployment:
percent distribution *

Duration of unemployment
Unemployment
(thousands)

Period

Percent distribution *
Less
than
5
weeks

5-14
weeks

15-26
weeks

State
programs

Number of
weeks

27
weeks
and
over

Average
(mean)

Median

Job
losers

Job
leavers

Reentrants

New
entrants

Insured
unemployment

Initial
claims

Insured
unemployment,
all
regular
programs
(unadjusted) 2

Special
unemployment
benefit
claims
(unadjusted) 3

Weekly average, thousands

1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

6,137
7,637
8,273
10,678
10,717

48.1
43.1
41.7
36.4
33.3

31.7
32.3
30.7
31.0
27.4

11.5
13.8
13.6
16.0
15.4

8.7
10.7
14.0
16.6
23.9

10.8
11.9
13.7
15.6
20.0

5.4
6.5
6.9
8.7
10.1

42.9
51.7
51.6
58.7
58.4

14.3
11.7
11.2
7.9
-J-7

29.4
25.2
25.4
22.3
22.5

13.3
11.4
11.9
11.1
11.3

2,434
3,350
3,047
r
4,061

388
488
460
583

2,592
3,837
3,410
4,590

1982- Dec

11,894

32.5

28.5

17.3

21.6

18.4

10.4

59.8

6.9

22.5

10.8

4,428

546

5,074

708

1983' Jan. .
Feb....
Mar
Apr
May
T *
June
July
i 3
Aufir
Sent
Oct
Nov
Dec

11,523
11,516
11,419
11,369
11,188
11,162
10,600
10,633
10,353
9,896
9,429
9,195

31.2
32.4
31.3
32.3
32.2
32.8
32.8
34.1
35.9
35.5
35.1
36.5

28.8
27.5
28.8
28.2
27.2
26.7
26.4
27.7
26.7
27.6
27.6
27.1

16.9
16.7
16.5
15.2
16.0
14.4
16.7
15.0
13.3
13.9
14.1
13.9

23.1
23.3
24.1
24.3
24.7
26.1
24.2
23.3
24.1
23.1
23.1
22.5

19.4
19.1
19.2
19.2
20.2
21.4
21.3
19.9
20.2
20.1
20.2
19.6

11.3
9.8
10.4
10.8
11.9
10.8
10.1
9.4
9.4
9.5
9.4
9.0

59.8
60.3
60.2
59.8
60.2
58.4
58.6
57.7
57.1
56.5
55.0
54.1

7.3
7.3
7.8
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.1
7.5
8.3
8.7
9.1
9.2

22.4
22.0
21.6
22.0
21.4
21.8
22.7
23.3
22.7
23.4
23.7
24.2

10.5
10.4
10.4
11.0
11.1
12.6
11.6
11.4
11.9
11.4
12.1
12.4

3,941
3,907
3,894
3,832
3,586
3,329
3,110
2,991
2,896
2,848
2,799
2,729

509
485
493
484
458
411
384
414
393
403
405
397

5,459
5,437
5,134
4,642
3,947
3,481
3,275
2,917
2,580
2,478
2,620

936
953
691
1,117
1,445
1,086
849
737
655
522
901
731

9,026

36.0

28.4

13.0

22.6

20.5

9.2

53.6

9.0

24.4

13.1

.

1984- Jan
1
2

,

Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding.
Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program.




3

Federal supplemental compensation program.
NOTE.—Seasonally adjusted unemployment data revised beginning 1979.
Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration).

13

NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
Total nonagricurtural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 287,000 in January.
MIUIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)
22
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

90

20
ALL NONAGRICULTURAL
ESTABLISHMENTS

80

18

16

70

14
SERVICE-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES

60

22
20

50

18

i mil nn i

40
CONSTRUCTION
GOODS-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES

I I I I I I 111 I
1980

1981

1984

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

"SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of wage and salary workers; l seasonally adjusted]
Service-producing industries

Goods-producing industries
Period

Total
nonagricultural
employ-

Manufacturing
Total

2

Construction

Total

Durable
goods

Services
Federal

State
and
local

65?,689
66^331

4,724
4,975
5,160
5,298
5,340
5,454

16,252
17,112
17,890
18,619
19,064
19,680

2,753
2,773
2,866
2,772
2,739
2,752

12,919
13,174
13,375
13,259
13,064
12,991

7,634

65,604

5,008

20,256

5,367

19,215

2,747

13,011

10,594
10,608
10,617
10,689
10,788
10,844
10,961
11,022
11,081
11,235
11,320
11,405

7,650
7,637
7,650
7,687
7,705
7,738
7,772
7,771
7,790
7,829
7,852
7,870

65,699
65,697
65,784
65,931
66,074
66,326
66,428
65,918
66,916
66,916
67,044
67,171

4,979
4,966
4,963
4,988
4,993
4,992
4,984
4,341
5,031
5,019
5,019
5,005

20,355
20,343
20,350
20,329
20,356
20,494
20,529
20,580
20,612
20,666
20,718
20,773

5,374
5,384
5,391
5,423
5,435
5,451
5,465
5,488
5,499
5,503
5,515
5,524

19,238
19,262
19,356
19,478
19,546
19,668
19,770
19,835
19,913
19,956
20,016
20,101

2,748
2,742
2,742
2,738
2,756
2,742
2,738
2,746
2,778
2,761
2,763
2,771

13,005
13,000
12,982
12,975
12,988
12,979
12,942
12,928
13,083
13,011
13,013
12,995

11,463

7,912

67,258

5,031

20,837

5,540

20,143

2,760
-

12,948
-

25,585
26,461
25,658
25,497
23,907
23,646

4,229
4,463
4,346
4,188
3,911
3,947

20,505
21,040
20*285
20470
18,853
18,678

12,274
12J60

1982: Dec

88,665

23,061

3,815

1983: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
. Sept
Oet r .
Nov r
Dec*

88,885
88,746
88,814
89,090
89,421
89,844
90,152
89,748
90,851
91,084
91,355
91,583

23,186
23,049
23,030
23,159
23,347
23,518
23,724
23,830
23,935
24,168
24,311
24,412

1984: Janp.....

91,870

24,612

61,113
63,363
64J48

12,109
11,100
10^932

8,231
8,280
8^098
8,061
7,753
7J46

18,193

10,559

3,905
3,790
3,757
3,786
3,860
3,933
3,974
4,014
4,038
4,060
4,094
4,091

18,244
18,245
18,267
18,376
18,493
18,582
18,733
18,793
18,871
19,064
19,172
19,275

4,194

19,375

Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who
worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month.
Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces,
Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the
civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic
servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial dis-




Government

Finance,
insurance,
and real
estate

19,542
20,192
20^310
20,547
20,401
20,512

86,697
89,823
90406
91,156
89,596
89,977

14

Total

Wholesale and
retail
trade

4,923
5,136
5^146
5,165
5,081
4,940

1978
1979 ..
1980 ..
1981
1982
1983 p

1

Nondurable
goods

Transportation and
public
utilities

putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample
of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
^ Includes mining, not shown separately.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Average gross hourly
earnings

Average weekly
hours
Period

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979...

1980
1981.
1982
1983 p
1982: Dec
1983: Jan.
Peb
Mar
T

Manufacturing

Total
private
nonagrieultural 1

Total

r
-

June
July
* J
Auff
Sept
Oct r
Nov r
Dee p ..
1984: Jan p

Overtime

34.8

39.0

35.1
34.5
34.8
34.9
35.1
35.1
35.0
35.0
35.2
35.3
35.2
35.3

39.7
39.2
39.5
40.1
40.0
40.1
40.2
40.3
40.8
40.6
40.6
40.5

2.6
3.1
3.5
3.6
3.3
2.8
2.8
2.3
3.0
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.6
2.9
2.7
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.4

35.6

40.9

3.4

39.5
40.1
40.3
40.4
40.2
39.7
39.8
38.9
40.1

36.1
36.1
36.0
35.8
35.7
35.3
35.2
34.8
35.0

.

Total
private
nonagricultural 1

Manufacturing

Adjusted hourly earnings index — total private
nonagricultural 2
Percent change from a year
earlier 4 5

Index,
1977 — 100

Current
dollars

1977
dollars 3

Current
dollars

8.4
7.2
7.6
8.2
7.9
9.0
9.1
6.8
4.6

1977 dollars

-0.7
1.4
1.0
.5
31
-4.0
10

$4.83
5.22
5.68
6.17
6.70
7.27
7.99
8.50
8.84

86.7
92.9
100.0
108.2
116.8
127.3
138.9
148.3
155.1

97.6
99.0
100.0
100.5
97.4
93.5
92.6
93.3
94.7

7.82

8.63

151.9

94.1

6.0

.8
1.5
2.0

7.88
7.91
7.91
7.95
7.97
8.00
8.03
7.98
8.08
8.13
8.13
8.16

8.68
8.76
8.75
8.78
8.79
8.82
8.85
8.84
8.87
8.94
9.00
9.01

152.7
153.4
153.4
154.0
154.6
154.8
155.2
155.0
155.9
156.8
156.9
157.5

94.7
95.3
95.0
94.8
94.7
94.8
94.7
94.0
94.2
94.4
94.3
94.5

5.4
5.7
5.4
5.2
4.8
4.6
4.3
3.6
3.9
4.1
3.9
3.7

1.8
2.4
1.6
1.2
1.4
2.1
2.1
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.0
.4

9.03

158.2

$4.53
4.86
5.25
5.69
6.16
6.66
7.25
7.67
8.01

8.21

3.6

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Percent change from
a year earlier,
total private nonagricultural 5

Average gross weekly earnings
Period

Total private
nonagricultural J
Current dollars

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982...
1983 p
1982:

Dec

1983: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
, y
June
July
Auff
Sept
Get r
Nov r ..
Decp
1984- Jan

p

1

Manufacturing

1977 dollars 3

3




Wholesale and
retail trade

Current dollars

1977 dollars

Current dollars

$163.53
175.45
189.00
203.70
219.91
235.10
255.20
266.92
280.35

$184.16
186.85
189.00
189.31
183.41
172.74
170.13
167.87
171.15

$190.79
209.32
228.90
249.27
269.34
288.62
318.00
330.65
354.48

$266.08
283.73
295.65
318.69
342.99
367.78
399.26
426.45
441.86

$126.45
133.79
142.52
153.64
164.96
176.46
190.62
198.10
207.03

5.7
7.3
7.7
7.8
8.0
6.9
8.5
4.6
5.0

272.14

168.61

336.57

437.18

203.19

4.4

.5

276.59
272.90
275.27
277.46
279.75
280.80
281.05
279.30
284.42
286.99
286.18
288.05

171.48
169.61
170.45
170.85
171.42
171.85
171.37
169.48
171.85
172.78
171.98
172.70

344.60
343.39
345.63
352.08
351.60
353.68
355.77
356.25
361.90
362.96
365.40
364.91

461.35
439.20
438.00
443.54
441.19
440.82
440.89
440.08
448.50
435.08
435.17
439.02

202.57
200.65
202.88
203.83
205.76
207.68
207.67
207.34
207.97
211.54
210.88
213.88

6.8
3.1
4.3
4.7
4.6
4.9
4.8
3.7
6.0
6.4
5.7
5.7

3.1
-.2
.6
.7
1.2
2.4
2.5
1.3
3.2
3.7
2.8
2.4

369.33

457.30

213.84

5.8

292.28

Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.
Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing.
Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index on a 1977 = 100 1
Revised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978.
2

Construction

-3.1
1.5
1.2
.2
-3.1
58
-1.5
-1.3
2.0

4

Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places.
5
Based on unadjusted data.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

15

PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR
Output per hour of
all persons

Period
Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Output 1
Business
sector

Hours of 2all
persons

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Compensation per
hour 3

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Implicit price
deflator 5

Unit labor
cost

Real compensation
per hour 4

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

1977 = 100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

86.2
89.2
92.4
94.7
92.5

86.8
89.7
93.0
95.3
92.9

78.4
80.7
86.1
91.7
89.9

78.0
80.3
85.8
91.7
89.8

91.0
90.5
93.2
96.8
97.3

89.8
89.5
92.3
96.2
96.7

58.2
62.0
66.1
71.3
78.0

58.7
62.5
66.7
71.7
78.5

90.8
92.8
95.7
97.3
95.9

91.5
93.5
96.6
97.8
96.4

67.5
69.5
71.5
75.3
84.4

67.6
69.7
71.7
75.3
84.5

66.0
69.0
71.3
75.3
82.4

66.3
69.3
71.3
74.0
81.6

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

94.5
97.6
100.0
100.6
99.4

94.7
97.8
100.0
100.6
99.1

88.2
93.8
100.0
105.5
107.8

87.8
93.7
100.0
105.7
108.0

93.3
96.0
100.0
104.9
108.5

92.7
95.8
100.0
105.0
109.0

85.5
92.9
100.0
108.6
118.7

86.0
93.0
100.0
108.6
118.4

96.3
98.9
100.0
100.9
99.1

96.8
99.0
100.0
100.9
98.9

90.5
95.1
100.0
108.0
119.5

90.8
95.1
100.0
108.0
119.5

90.4
94.7
100.0
107.5
117.2

90.0
94.6
100.0
107.1
116.5

1980
1981
1982
1983 p

98.9
101.3
101.2
103.8

98.4
100.3
100.2
103.4

106.5
109.8
106.7
111.0

106.5
109.3
106.3
110.9

107.6
108.4
105.4
106.9

108.2
109.0
106.0
107.3

131.2
143.9
155.1
163.1

130.7
143.5
154.7
163.5

96.5
95.9
97.4
99.2

96.1
95.6
97.1
99.4

132.7
142.1
153.3
157.1

132.8
143.0
154.4
158.1

128.1
140.1
147.7
153.2

128.1
140.4
148.6
154.1

101.1
100.7
101.1
101.9

100.0
99.9
100.4
100.8

107.2
106.9
106.6
106.0

106.5
106.7
106.5
105.4

106.0
106.2
105.4
104.0

106.5
106.8
106.0
104.6

151.6
153.9
156.5
158.7

151.3
153.5
156.1
158.3

97.1
97.4
97.1
98.0

96.9
97.1
96.9
97.8

149.9
152.9
154.7
155.6

151.3
153.6
155.4
157.1

145.5
147.5
148.5
149.4

146.4
148.3
149.1
150.5

102.5
103.9
104.2
104.8

101.7
103.5
104.0
104.3

107.1
110.4
112.4
113.9

106.7
110.2
112.5
114.2

104.5
106.2
107.9
108.7

104.9
106.5
108.2
109.5

160.7
162.1
163.6
166.4

161.0
162.7
164.2
166.0

99.4
99.2
98.9
99.5

99.5
99.6
99.3
99.3

156.9
156.0
156.9
158.8

158.3
157.2
157.8
159.2

151.5
152.5
153.8
155.2

152.4
153.4
154.7
155.9

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

0.8
3.6
3.5
2.6
-2.4

0.3
3.3
3.7
2.4
-2.5

-0.8
3.0
6.6
6.6
20

10
2.9
6.9
6.8
-2.0

16
-.5
3.0
3.9
.4

-1.3
-.4
3.1
4.3
.5

7.3
6.6
6.5
8.0
9.4

7.0
6.6
6.7
7.6
9.4

1.3
2.2
3.1
1.6
-1.4

1.0
2.2
3.3
1.3
-1.4

6.4
2.9
2.9
5.3
12.1

6.6
3.1
2.8
5.0
12.2

4.5
4.4
3.4
5.5
9.5

4.8
4.5
3.0
3.8
10.2

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

2.2
3.3
2.4
.6
-1.2

2.0
3.2
2.2
.6
-1.5

-2.0
6.4
6.6
5.5
2.3

-2.2
6.7
6.7
5.7
2.2

-4.1
3.0
4.1
4.9
3.5

-4.1
3.4
4.4
5.0
3.7

9.6
8.6
7.7
8.6
9.4

9.6
8.1
7.5
8.6
9.0

.5
2.6
1.2
.9
-1.7

.4
2.2
1.0
.9
-2.0

7.3
5.1
5.1
8.0
10.7

7.5
4.8
5.2
8.0
10.7

9.8
4.7
5.6
7.5
9.0

10.3
5.1
5.7
7.1
8.8

-.5
2.4
j
2.6

7
1.9
-.1
3.1

-1.3
3.1
-2.8
4.0

— 1.4
2.7
-2.8
4.4

-.8
.7
-2.7
1.4

-.7
.7
-2.7
1.2

10.5
9.7
7.7
5.2

10.4
9.8
7.8
5.6

-2.6
-.6
1.5
1.9

-2.8

6
1.6
2.3

11.1
7.1
7.9
2.5

11.1
7.7
7.9
2.4

9.2
9.4
5.4
3.7

10.0
9.6
5.8
3.7

-.4
-1.6
1.7
3.3

.1
-.4
2.3
1.3

-6.3
-1.0
-1.1
-2.3

62
.8
-.6
—4.1

-6.0
.6
-2.7
-5.4

-6.2
1.2
-2.9
-5.3

9.4
6.4
6.7
5.7

10.0
5.8
7.2
5.8

6.3
1.1
-1.0
3.7

6.8
.5
-.6
3.7

9.8
8.1
5.0
2.3

9.9
6.2
4.7
4.4

3.4
5.5
2.7
2.6

3.7
5.4
2.2
3.7

2.0
5.9
1.2
2.2

3.7
7.1
2.3
1.0

4.2
12.7
7.8
5.3

4.9
13.7
8.9
6.0

2.1
6.5
6.5
3.0

1.2
6.2
6.4
5.0

5.4
3.5
3.6
7.1

6.8
4.3
3.8
4.5

5.8
Y
-LI
2.2

7.2
.1
-.9
2

3.3
-2.2
2.3
4.8

3.0
-2.6
1.5
3.5

5.5
2.8
3.3
3.7

5.3
2.7
3.3
3.3

1982: I

n
m
IV

1983: I r

n .r
m p....
IV ....

Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates

1980
1981
1982
1983 p
1982- I

n
in
IV

1983- I r

n.
m pr....

IV ....

1
2

Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars.
Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family
workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data.
3
Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private
benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed.
4
Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index.

16



5

Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.

NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector.
Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may
differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Industrial production rose 0.5 percent in December, compared with a 0.7 percent increase in November. The index
for December was 16.1 percent above its year earlier level.
INDEX, 1967 = 100* (RATIO SCALE)

INDEX, 1967 = 100* (RATIO SCALE)

180 -TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

180 _ UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION

160

160
UTILITIES

140

140

*'

/

MINING

120

120

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION

1979

r\ ^+ —s /
\y

1

160 *«"—

NONDURABLE

m

-VX~

-*\

V A
DURABLE

90

120
Mllllilll!

imilimi

III III III II

1979

1980

1981

/
^

s*

1981

I LI LI
1983

1982

MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE

\

80

70

I lillllllll lllilllllll
1982

1980

PERCENT*

++~~

^-JL-— - i>*

140

Mill

Mill

100!

180

60
1979

1983

1980

1981

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE Ff DERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

1982

1983

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period
Index,
1967 = 100

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980 . .
1981
.'.
1982
p
1983
1982- Dec
1983*

...

Jan

Feb
Mar

.. .

Apr
May
June
July
Aufif
Sept r
Oetr

Nov

r

Decp
1
2

129.3
117.8
130.5
138.2
146.1
152.5
147.0
151.0
138.6
147.7
135.2
137.4
138.1
140.0
142.6
144.4
146.4
149.7
151.8
153.8
155.0
156.1
156.9

Output as percent of capacity.
Annual data are averages of the four monthly indexes.




Manufacturing

Manufacturing

Percent
change
from year
earlier

Mining
Total

87.95

100.00

1967 pTopoTtion

Capacity utilization rate, percent

Industry production indexes, 1967 = 100

Total
industrial
production

-0.4
-8.9
10.8
5.9
5.7
4.4
-3.6
2.7
-8.2
6.6
-5.7
-2.3
-3.4
-1.2
1.7
3.7
5.6
7.9
9.7
12.0
14.2
15.7
16.1

129.4
116.3
130.3
138.4
146.8
153.6
146.7
150.4
137.6
148.5
134.5
136.7
138.2
140.4
143.1
145.1
147.4
150.6
152.8
155.1
156.4
157.2
157.8

Durable

51.98
125.7
109.3
122.3
130.0
139.7
146.4
136.7
140.5
124.7
134.6
119.9
122.5
123.9
126.3
129.1
131.0
133.2
136.8
138.8
141.6
143.0
144.0
145.0

Utilities

Nondurable

35.97

134.6
126.4
141.8
150.5
156.9
164.0
161.2
164.8
156.2
168.5
155.6
157.4
159.0
160.7
163.3
165.4
167.8
170.6
172.9
174.6
175.8
176.3
176.3

6.36
115.3
112.8
114.2
118.2
124.0
125.5
132.7
142.2
126.1
116.5
118.4
121.9
115.6
112.6
111.6
112.8
112.6
115.0
116.1
117.1
118.6
120.9
123.4

5.69
143.7
146.0
151.7
156.5
161.4
166.0
168.3
169.1
168.7
172.7
164.2
163.1
162.0
165.8
169.3
169.7
169.8
176.0
179.3
179.3
176.9
178.8
183.4

Federal
Reserve
series

83.7
72.9
79.6
82.2
84.7
86.0
79.6
79.4
71.1
75.3
68.9
70.0
70.6
71.6
72.9
73.8
74.9
76.4
77.3
78.4
79.0
79.3
79.4

Commerce
series 2

83.0
77.0
81.0
83.0
84.0
83.0
78.0
76.0
70.0
67.5
69.8
73.3
75.5

l

Industrial
materials
(Federal
Reserve
series)

87.0
73.3
81.1
82.6
85.6
87.6
80.4
80.7
70.1
75.2
66.6
68.7
70.1
71.5
72.5
73.5
74.4
76.5
77.4
78.6
79.4
79.8
80.1

Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Department of Commerce
(Bureau of Economic Analysis).

17

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND
SELECTED MANUFACTURES
[1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Products
Intermediate products

Final products
Period
Total

Durable
goods

Total

1967 proportion

47.82

27.68

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
19SO
1981.
1982
1983 p
1982: Dec
1983: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May

125.1
118.2
127.6
135.9
142.2
147.2
145.3
149.5
141.5
147.2
139.5
140.1
138.9
139.9
142.8
144.5
146.4
149.0
150.7
152.1
152.9
154.2
155.4

128.9
124.0
137.1
145.3
149.1
150.8
145.4
147.9
142.6
151.9
142.0
143.6
143.4
144.3
147.7
150.4
152.4
154.8
156.3
157.3
157.1
157.8
158.7

June
July
Auir
Sept r..
Oet r
Nov r
Dec p . . .

.y

7.89
135.3
121.4
141.9
154.0
159.2
155.8
136.7
140.5
129.2
147.7
125.9
131.6
134.4
136.3
140.5
145.5
149.2
152.9
154.2
157.5
157.1
156.7
159,7

Materials

Equipment

Consumer goods
Nondurable
goods

19.79
126.3
125.1
135.2
141.9
145.1
148.8
148.9
150.9
148.0
153.7
148.4
148.3
147.0
147.5
150.5
152.3
153.6
155.6
157.1
157.2
157.1
158.2
158.3

Total

20.14
120.0
110.2
114.6
123.0
132.8
142.2
145.2
151.8
139.8
140.8
136.1 135.3
132.7
133.8
136.2
136.5
138.2
141.0
143.1
144.9
147.1
149.3
150.8

Business

12.63
142.4
128.2
135.4
147.8
160.3
171.3
173.2
181.1
157.9
153.2
148.1
146.6
142.7
143.7
146.9
147.7
150.2
153.3
156.6
158.7
161.5
164.4
165.8

Defense
and space
equipment

7.51
82.4
80.0
79.8
81.3
86.5
93.4
98.2
102.7
109.4
119.9
115.9
116.4
116.1
117.0
118.2
117.6
118.0
120.4
120.2
121.8
122.9
123.9
125.7

Total

12.89
135.3
123.1
137.2
145.1
154.1
160.5
151.9
154.4
143.3
156.9
141.5
143.7
145.3
147.8
150.8
152.2
154.5
158.1
162.2
165.4
166.5
167.2
167.6

Construction
supplies

Business
supplies

6.42
134.5
116.3
132.6
140.6
151.7
158.0
140.9
141.9
124.3
142.7
123.0
127.0
129.7
133.1
136.4
138.4
142.1
145.8
149.0
151.4
152.3
152.7
152.7

6.47
136.0
129.7
141.7
149.5
156.5
163.1
162.8
166.7
162.1
159.8
160.3
160.9
162.3
165.2
166.0
166.8
170.4
175.3
179.3
180.7
181.6

39.29

132.4
115.5
131.7
138.6
148.3
156.4
147.6
151.6
133.7
145.3
127.8
132.0
134.9
137.6
139.7
141.7
143.7
147.8
149.7
152.2
153.9
154.9
155.3

Supplementary
group:
Inergy
total

12.23
125.5
125.5
129.1
132.9
135.4
137.9
137.7
137.4
135.7
136.1
132.2
132.4
131.0
131.9
133.9
133.8
133.6
138.5
139.4
139.1
137.7
139.2
141.5

[1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Nondurable manufactures

Durable manufactures
Primary metals
Period
Total

1967 proportion.

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982.
1983 p
1982: Dec
1983:

Jan....

Feb
Mar ..
Apr
May ..
June
July....

Aus:

Sept r
Oct r......

Nov r
Dec"

6.57
123.1
96.4
109.7
111.1
119.9
121.3
102.3
107.9
75.3
85.4
63.5
73.1
77.9
81.2
83.1
84.9
84.8
85.5
87.5
90.6
95.1
92.0
91.1

Iron and
steel

Fabricated metal
products

4.21
119.8
95.8
104.8
103.8
113.2
113.2
92.4
99.8
61.7
46.6
59.0
64.3
66.9
68.5
69.5
69.7
71.8
75.1
78.2
84.0
80.5

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

18



5.93
124.2
109.9
123.9
131.0
141.6
148.5
134.1
136.4
114.8
120.4
107.3
107.6
110.3
113.9
115.3
115.5
118.5
122.7
126.0
127.4
127.2
129.3
129.7

Nonelectrical
machinery

9.15
140.1
125.1
134.5
143.6
153.6
163.7
162.8
171.2
149.0
150.6
139.2
138.0
136.2
138.6
143.1
146.1
149.5
154.2
157.3
158.3
159.5
162.9
163.0

Transportation
equipment
Electrical
machinery
Total

8.05
143.8
116.5
134.8
145.4
159.4
175.0
172.8
178.4
169.3
185.8
165.5
169.5
168.9
173.8
177.2
180.1
182.4
188.3
189.2
195.8
198.7
200.6
203.7

9.27
108.7
97.4
111.1
122.2
132.5
135.4
116.9
116.1
104.9
117.4
103.7
106.3
109.6
110.1
111.4
113.8
116.6
119.7
121.1
124.7
125.5
125.8
128.2

Motor
vehicles
and parts

4.50
128.2
111.1
142.0
161.1
169.9
159.9
119.0
122.3
109.8
136.9
108.8
113.9
123.0
123.2
125.5
130.4
136.2
142.3
144.3
150.9
150.9
152.5
157.1

Lumber
and
products

1.64
116.2
107.6
123.2
131.2
136.3
136.9
119.3
119.1
112.6
121.4
130.0
130.2
128.7
132.1
135.8
137.4
141.3
141.6
142.3
141.7
142.0

Apparel
products

3.31
114.3
107.6
125.7
134.2
134.2
134.4
127.0
120.4

Printing
and
publishing

Chemicals and
products

4.72
118.2
113.3
122.5
127.6
131.5
136.9
139.6
144.2
144.1
1529
142.8
.141.3
144.0
145.9
145.7
145.2
147.4
152.0
157.8
161.7
162.7
163.1
163.2

7.74
159.4
147.2
170.9
185.7
197.4
211.8
207.1
215.6
196.1

8.75
124.0
123.4
133.0
138.8
142.7
147.5
149.6
152.1
151.1

195.9
197.6
202.3
205.7
208.5
211.0
214.7
218.3
220.3
224.1
228.1
228.3

152.8
154.4
153.0
152.0
153.7
155.6
157.7
159.9
159.3
158.2
157.6

Foods

NEW CONSTRUCTION
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Construction contracts 2

Private
Total new
construction
expenditures

Period

Residential

Total

Commercial
and industrial

New housing
units

Total 1

Other

Federal,
State, and
local

Total value
index
(1977=100)

Commercial
and industrial
floor space
(millions of
square feet)

Billions of dollars

1976
1977
1978.........
1979.
1980
1981...
1982..
1983 p

.

151.1
173.8
205.6
230.4
230.7
239.4
232.0
264.9

112.0
135.7
159.7
181.6
175.7
186.1
181.0
214.5

60.5
81.0
93.4
99.0
87.3
86.6
74.8
112.8

47.3
65.7
75.8
78.6
63.1
62.7
51.9
85.1

31.5
32.2
36.7
42.7
44.7
48.2
51.5
52.4

52.6

52.2

49.4

131

595

53.3
51.0
49.7
46.8
46.3
49.0
48.1
50.5
50.1
46.7
50.4
51.0

52.0
49.8
49.0
50.7
52.2
52.2
52.4
50.9
53.4
54.6
55.8
55.7

52.9
48.7
47.0
47.9
48.7
49.6
51.4
53.5
52.8
48.7
50.1
50.1

127
119
131
129
148
151
137
146
143
139
145
134

803
693
632
652
734
785
741
783
830
856
884
748

79.0
100.0
114.0
122.0
107.0
110.0
111.0
138.0

39.1
38.2
45.9
48.8
55.0
53.3
51.1
50.3

Annual rates

Annual rates

1982: Dec

240.2

190.8

86.0

58.6

1983: Jan
leb
Mar
Apr
y
May
June
Julyr
Aug r . .
Sept r
Oct r
Nov r
Dec"

247.9
243.0
241.9
247.4
254.8
264.3
274.2
282.0
285.4
271.7
275.5
275.0

195.0
194.3
194.9
199.5
206.0
214.7
222.8
228.5
232.6
223.0
225.4
224.9

89.7
93.6
96.1
102.0
107.5
113.5
122.3
127.1
129.1
121.7
119.2
118.2

63.4
68.8
72.3
77.3
82.2
87.9
92.7
94.8
95.0
92.1
92.0
91.9

T

1
Includes nonhousekeeping residential (Construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately.
2
P. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971
for floor space.

592
739
977
1,059
904
r
919
r
690
750

19.9
22.5
29.6
39.9
43.8
51.3
54.6
49.3

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company, F. W. Dodge Division.

NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES
[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]
New private homes

New private housing units

Period

Units started, hy type of structure
Total

1976.....
1977..
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 p

..

1,537.5
1,987.1
2,020.3
1,745.1
1,292.2
1,084.2
1,062.2
1,703.1

1 unit

1,162.4
1,450.9
1,438.3
1,194.1
852.2
705.4
662.6
1,066.9

2-4 units

85.9
121.7
125.0
122.0
109.5
91.1
80.0
114.9

5 or more units

289.2
414.4
462.0
429.0
330.5
287.7
319.6
521.3

Units
authorized

1,296.2
1,690.0
1,800.5
1,551.8
1,190.6
985.5
1,000.5
1,593.7

Units
completed

Homes sold

Homes for
sale at end of
period *

Vacancy rate
for rental
housing units
(percent) 2

1,377.2
1,657.1
1,867.5
1,870.8
1,501.6
1,265.7
1,005.5

646
819
817
709
545
436
412
625

353
402
414
3
398
336
272
251
302

5.6
5.2
5.0
5.4
5.4
5.0
5.3

1,035
1,195
1,138
1,147
1,164
1,353
1,386
1,432
1,729
r
l,476
1,588
1,430

529
611
593
611
635
665
658
594
r
544
r
589
624
629
808

251
259
262
262
266
273
284
289
296
r
298
301
310
302

5.5

Seasonally adjusted annual rates

1982: Dec
1983: Jan.. ..
Feb
Mar
Apr
May .
June
July
Augr
Sept
Oct r
Nov r
Dec*
1

1,280
1,694
1,784
1,605
1,506
1,807
1,736
1,804
1,904
1,664
1,654
1,755
1,667

842
1,126
1,103
1,008
1,001
1,183
1,127
1,032
1,135
1,031
1,002
1,097
972

79
100
117
100
117
96
123
135
110
117
90
133
151

359
468
564
497
388
528
486
637
659
516
562
525
544

Seasonally adjusted.
2
Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable
vith earlier data.
3
New series beginning March 1979.




1,326
1,447
1,479
1,467
1,536
1,635
1,761
1,782
1,652
1,506
1,630
1,642
1,549

!

5.7
5.5
5.8
5.5

NOTE.—Units authorized beginning 1978 relate to 16,000 permit-issuing places; data for
1973-77 are for 14,000 places.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

19

BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade
Manufacturing and trade sales rose 1.1 percent in November and inventories rose $2.2 billion. According to the
advance survey, retail sales rose 0.1 percent in December following an increase of 1.1 percent in November.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

600
550

160
150
140
130
120

500
450

-RETAIL INVENTORIES-

no

400

100

350

90
80
MANUFACTURING
" AND TRADE SALES "

300

RETAIL SALES

70

250

60
50

200

1979

1980

1982

1981

1983

RATIO*

150

100 I l l l l
1979

1.20
1980

1982

1981

1983

1979

'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Manufacturing and
trade *

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Wholesale
Sales

Period
Sales2

Inventories 3

Sales

2

Inventories 3

Inventory-sales ratio 4

Eetail

Total

2

Durable
goods
stores

Inventories
Nondurable goods
stores

Total

8

Durable
goods
stores

Nondurable goods
stores

Manufacturing
and
trade l

Retail

Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted

1976
1977
1978...
1979
1980
1981
1982
1982: Nov
Dec
1983: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
T y
June
July....
Auar
Sept .

* y

Oct r
Nov"
Dec"

1
2
3

204,277
229,624
260,307
297,663
327,284
356,099
344,179

318,544
351,036
398,890
450,736
492,885
526,152
511,942

50,694
55,987
66,117
78,680
92,658
100,673
95,363

64,078
72,311
85,685
98,394
112,341
116,986
118,790

54,781
60,435
67,286
75,047
80,235
87,298
89,640

18,150
20,724
23,218
25,196
24,401
26,335
26,739

36,631
39,711
44,067
49,850
55,834
60,963
62,901

79,273
89,530
102,790
111,229
116,430
126,833
128,250

37,841
43,135
49,987
53,717
54,400
59,095
59,597

41,432
46,395
52,803
57,512
62,030
67,738
68,653

1.48
1.46
1.44
1.43
1.45
1.44
1.51

338,722
338,391

513,888
511,942

91,912
91,389

118,349
118,790

92,492
92,459

28,721
28,723

63,771
63,736

127,619
128,250

59,417
59,597

68,202
68,653

345,337
341,490
348,009
351,100
363,925
373,572
372,434
r
374,358
r
380,089
382,209
386,567

507,550
507,665
503,222
504,796
505,658
505,521
505,826
510,430
513,883
515,999
518,220

94,790
92,245
92,943
92,586
97,529
100,479
100,315
r
100,568
r
102,297
104,578
103,502
107,218

117,564
116,417
116,591
117,498
115,855
115,630
115,745
116,813
118,410
119,882
119,454
120,341

92,308
91,164
93,263
95,449
98,431
99,173
99,521
97,801
99,202
100,841
r
!01,981
102,059

28,307
27,490
29,160
30,668
32,124
32,663
32,539
30,893
32,125
33,092
r
34,lll
34,654

64,001
63,674
64,103
64,781
66,307
66,510
66,982
66,908
67,077
67,749
r
67,870
67,405

127,869
130,392
129,327
129,901
131,654
132,501
131,905
133,783
135,452
135,301
137,748

59,735
61,517
60,412
60,640
61,401
62,019
61,284
62,313
64,021
63,762
65,596

68,134
68,875
68,915
69,261
70,253
70,482
70,621
71,470
71,431
71,539
72,152

.52
.51
.47
.49
.45
.44
.39
.35
1.36
1.36
1.35
1.35
1.34

See page 21 for manufacturing.
Monthly average for year and total for month.
Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted.

20



1.38
1.40
1.43
1.44
1.42
1.40
1.41
1.38
1.39
1.39
1.43
1.39
1.36
1.34
1.34
1.33
1.37
1.37
1.34
1.35

* For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly
data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).

MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
In December manufacturers' shipments and orders rose while inventories fell.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO

1983
*SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Manufacturers' shipments l

Manufacturers' new orders l

Manufacturers' inventories 2

Durable goods
Period
Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable goods

Durable
goods

Total

Nondurable goods

Total

Total

Capital
goods
industries,
nondefense

Nondurable goods

Manufacturers'
unfilled3
orders

12,799
15,291
19,458
23,231
23,259
24,059
20,687
22,880

48,145
53,950
59,207
67,953
76,801
84,199
82,268
86,000

182,499
205,675
262,671
305,453
325,908
323,346
300,971
333,120

Manufacturers'
inventory—
shipments
ratio 4

Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
1976
1977
1978

1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 p
1982: Dec
1983- Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
J
May
T
June
July
" J
Aufir
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec p
1
2
3

98,802
113,202
126,905
143,936
154,391
168,129
159,177
171,064

50,689
59,267
67,848
76,060
77,550
83,872
76,843
85,206

48,113
53,935
59,057
67,876
76,841
84,257
82,334
85,857

175,193
189,195
210,415
241,113
264,114
282,333
264,902
260,667

112,581
121,575
137,834
160,554
174,547
186,222
175,200
171,169

62,612
67,620
72,581
80,559
89,567
96,111
89,702
89,498

99,543
115,061
131,616
147,466
156,142
167,924
157,371
173,750

51,398
61,111
72,409
79,513
79,341
83,725
75,103
87,750

154,543

73,495

81,048

264,902

175,200

89,702

157,382

76,180

19,679

81,202

300,971

82,355
77,449
79,951
83,101
84,456
90,905
88,234
89,978
90,996
93,366
r
96,513
96,693

20,507
19,175
20,032
22,592
22,228
24,289
21,580
23,028
25,213
26,003
r
24,575
25,125

80,516
80,308
82,636
82,924
85,418
87,584
87,221
88,324
89,965
88,436
88,960
90,552

305,599
305,268
306,053
309,015
310,922
315,488
318,348
320,664
323,032
328,041
332,431
333,120

158,239
158,081
161,803
163,065
167,965
173,920
172,598
175,989
178,590
176,790
181,084
186,556

77,744
77,769
79,595
80,241
82,669
86,582
85,646
87,918
88,970
88,228
r
92,246
95,969

80,495
80,312
82,208
82,824
85,296
87,338
86,952
88,071
89,620
88,562
88,838
90,587

262,117
260,856
257,304
257,397
258,149
257,390
258,176
259,834
260,021
260,816
261,018
260,667

Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales.
Book value, end of period.
End of period.




172,506
171,572
169,377
169,814
170,734
169,840
169,693
170,576
170,385
170,628
170,964
171,169

89,611
89,284
87,927
87,583
87,415
87,550
88,483
89,258
89,636
90,188
90,054
89,498

162,871
157,757
162,587
166,025
169,874
178,489
175,455
178,302
180,961
181,802
185,473
187,245

1.69
1.61
1.57
1.57
1.66
1.64
1.73
1.52
1.71
1.66
1.65
1.59
1.58
1.54
1.48
1.50
1.48
1.46
1.48
1.44
1.40

4
For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for
monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

21

PRICES
PRODUCER PRICES
In December, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of
finished consumer foods rose 0.7 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods were unchanged. Prices of
capital equipment rose 0.2 percent.
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)
320

INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)
320
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

— FINISHED GOODS
300

300
280

280

TOTAL FINISHED
GOODS-

260

240

260

240

CONSUMER FOODS

220

-CAPITAL EQUIPMENT-

220

200

200

CONSUMER GOODS
EXCLUDING FOODS
180

180

160

160

140

140

! I I I I

120

1975

1976

1977

1979

1978

120

I I I I I

1980

1981

1982

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1983

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Intermediate materials

Finished goods
Period

Total

1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 p
1982: Dec
1983: Jan

Feb....
Mar
Aw
May
, J
j une

July

Aug r

Sept
Oct

Nov
Dec
1

Finished goods excluding consumer foods
Con-

goods

sumer
foods

Total

170.6
181.7
195.9
217.7
247.0
269.8
280.7
285.2
286.4
283.3
283.8
283.0
283.0
283.7
285.1
285.3
286.4
286.9
287.8
287.3
288.0

180.4
189.9
207.2
226.2
239.5
253.6
259.3
261.8
258.8
258.3
260.9
261.4
264.2
262.9
261.4
259.5
260.5
262.4
265.3
262.7
264.6

166.1
177.7
190.7
213.3
247.8
273.3
285.8
290.9
293.5
289.5
289.2
288.1
287.1
288.4
290.8
291.8
292.9
293.0
293.1
293.4
293.6

finished

Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds.

22



Total
162.6
174.3
186.7
211.5
250.8
276.5
287.8
291.3
296.7
290.8
290.0
288.0
286.7
288.3
291.4
292.5
293.4
293.7
293.6
293.9
294.0

Durable
144.5
152.8
166.9
183.2
206.2
218.6
226.7
233.1
230.4
229.6
232.2
232.6
232.4
232.9
234.0
234.1
235.0
233.8
232.8
233.9
234.1

Total
finished

Nondurable

Capital
equipment

consumer goods

174.8
189.3
200.0
231.3
283.9
319.6
333.6
335.3
346.4
337.3
333.7
329.7
327.4
330.0
334.7
336.7
337.6
338.9
339.6
339.3
339.4

173.4
184.6
199.2
216.5
239.8
264.3
279.4
287.3
284.4
283.9
285.0
285.8
285.6
286.2
287.0
287.5
289.3
288.8
289.6
289.6
290.1

169.7
180.7
194.9
217.9
248.9
271.3
281.0
284.6
287.0
283.1
283.4
282.2
282.3
282.9
284.5
284.7
285.6
286.4
287.3
286.6
287.3

Consumer goods

Total

189.1
201.5
215.6
242.2
280.3
306.0
310.4
312.4
311.8
310.1
309.8
308.6
307.2
308.6
311.1
312.0
313.6
316.1
317.0
317.4
317.4

Foods
and l

feeds

185.3
190.5
203.1
226.1
252.6
250.3
239.4
247.8
234.0
236.0
239.4
239.8
246.3
245.3
243.2
242.4
250.4
260.9
258.0
256.2
255.3

Other

Crude materials
Total

Foodstuffs
and

Other

stuffs
189.4
202.3
216.5
244.4
282.3
310.1
315.7
317.2
317.5
315.6
315.0
313.7
311.9
313.3
316.2
317.2
318.3
320.3
321.5
322.0
322.1

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

202.7
209.2
234.4
274.3
304.6
329.0
319.5
323.6
316.6
315.8
316.8
318.9
323.9
324.1
323.6
319.7
326.7
328.0
327.2
328.3
331.8

190.2
192.1
216.2
247.9
259.2
257.4
247.8
252.3
240.3
243.0
248.8
250.5
258.0
255.0
251.0
244.4
254.0
254.6
255.2
255.1
259.5

228.5
245.0
272.3
330.0
401.0
482.3
473.9
477.2
480.6
472.6
463.3
466.4
466.5
472.9
479.9
481.9
483.5
486.1
482.3
485.9
487.7

CONSUMER PRICES
In December, f+ie consumer price index for aH urban consumers rose 0.3 percent seasonally adjusted (0.1 percent
not seasonally adjusted). The index was 3.8 percent above its level in December 1982.
INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE)

INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)
320

320

300

300

280

280

260

260

240

240

220

220

200

200

180

180

160

160

140

140

120

I II IIi IIIi N IIIIi IIi i
1975
1976
SEE NOTE ON

1979

1978

1977

1980

i ii i i Ii iii t
1981

I I I I LJ I L_L1

1982

1983

TABLE BELOW

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[1967 = 100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Housing

Transportation

All
items

Shelter
Period

All
items *

Food
Total *
Total

Renters'
costs 2

NSA

Rel. imp.5
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980....
1981
1982
1983
1982: Dee
1983: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1
2
3
4

tc,
5

100.0
170.5
181.5
195.4
217.4
246.8
272.4
289.1
2984
292.4
293.1
293.2
293.4
295.5
297.1
298.1
299.3
300.3
301.8
302.6
303.1
303.5

19.0
180.8
192 2
211.4
234.5
254.6
274.6
285.7
291 7
288.1
288.3
288.3
290.1
291.3
292.2
291.3
291.0
291.6
292.5
293.9
294.3
295.5

37.7

174.6
186 5
202.8
227 6
263.3
293 5
314.7
323 1
317.4
318.9
318.9
318.7
320.4
321.5
322.1
323.4
324.2
325.8
326.6
328.1
328.8

21.3
1790
191 1
2104
239 7
281 7
314 7
3370
344 8
336.0
338.3
339.1
339.2
341.6
342.7
343.6
345.3
346.6
348.4
349.8
351.2
352.1

6.9

103 0
100.2
100.8
101.1
101.3
101.7
102.2
102.5
103.1
103.6
104.3
104.7
105.1
105.4

Homeowners'
costs 2

Maintenance
and
repairs

NSA

NSA

13.9

102 5
100.0
100.7
100.9
100.9
101.7
102.0
102.2
102.7
103.0
103.5
103.9
104.3
104.5

0.5
199 6
214 7
233 0
2564
285 7
314 4
334 1
346 3
337.8
342.9
339.4
339.9
343.6
344.3
345.1
346.1
347.9
346.6
351.1
353.4
354.7

Includes items not shown separately,
December 1982=100.
Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981.
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant,
Relative importance, December 1982.




Fuel
and
other
utilities

Apparel and
upkeep

Total *

New
cars

Motor
fuel 3

8.4

5.2
147 6
154 2
159 6
166 6
1784
186 9
191 8
196 5
192.7
193.2
194.2
194.1
194.5
195.8
196.5
197.7
198.4
198.4
198.4
198.5
198.4

21.8
165 5
177 2
185 5
212 0
249 7
2800
291 5
298 4
295.8
293.9
289.1
289.0
292.1
295.8
297.1
298.6
301.6
304.1
305.9
306.4
307.2

3.5
135 7
142 9
153 8
1660
179 3
190 2
197 6
202 6
199.3
199.4
201,1
202.6
201.3
200.6
200.8
200.8
202.5
204.5
205.9
206.0
206.2

6.2
177 9
188 2
1963
265 6
369 1
4109
3894
376 4
391.2
378.3
353.0
349.5
363.2
378.1
380.9
382.5
387.1
388.9
387.1
384.1
384.6

182 7
202 2
216 0
239 3
278 6
319 2
350 8
370 3
369.6
368.9
366.9
365.1
365.8
368.8
368.9
370.1
371.1
373.6
373.1
375.9
375.8

Medical
care

InergJ 4

6.0
184.7
2024
2194
239 7
265.9
2945
328 7
357 3
344.4
347.2
350.1
351.7
353.3
354.8
356.4
358.4
360.3
361.7
363.0
364.4
366.4

12.4
189,3
207 3
2204
275 9
361.1
4100
416 1
419 3
431.3
6
420.5
404.9
401.3
409.3
419.5
420.9
422.3
425.4
428.2
426.6
426.6
427.1

less
food,
energy,
and
shelter

47.3
159.9
169 5
179.1
191 5
2083
228 1
245.6
258 4
251.9
253.1
254.2
254.9
255.5
256.1
257.0
258.5
259.7
260.9
262.4
263.5
264.3

6
Energy excludes motor oil, coolant, etc. beginning January 1983,
NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and
clerical workers.
Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

23

CHANGS- IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

Change from preceding period

Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate

Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate

Consumer goods

Consumer goods

Consumer goods

Total
finished
goods

Capital
equipment

Ixcluding foods

Foods

Total
finished

goods

Capital
equipment

Excluding
foods

Foods

Total
finished

Capital
equipment

Excluding
foods

Foods

goods

Change
from
year
earlier,
total
finished

goods
NSA

Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983"

6.6
3.7
6.9
9.2
12.8
11.8
7.1
3.7
.6

10.8
4.4
6.5
7.8
11.1
13.5
9.2
4.0
1.6

8.2
6.4
7.3
7.9
8.8
11.4
9.2
3.9
2.0

6.7
6.0
6.7
8.5
17.5
14.2
8.5
4.2
-.8

5.5
-2.5
6.9
11.7
7.4
7.5
1.4
2.1
2.2

Change, month to month

1982: Dec
1983:

0.3

Jan. .
Feb
Mar. ..
Apr
May
T J

-1.1

June
July ..
Aug r
Sept .

.2
-.3
0
.2
.5
.1
.4
.2
.3
-.2
.2

.

Oct
Nov
Dec

0.2

0.5

5.2

0.8

7.8

3.6

4.7

-.2
.4
.3
•»
.2
.3
.2
.6
r
-.2
.3
0
.2

—.7
-2.4
-4.7
A
-.1
3.0
3.3
3.9
2.5
3.6
1.3
1.5

.2
4.2
4.1
9.5
3.1
0
-6.9
-3.6
1.5
9.2
r
3.4
3.4

3.2
-7.6
-11.2
-5.5
-2.3
4.8
8.3
7.3
3.2
1.5
r
.7
.4

2.7
2.7
2.0
2.4
1.7
1.7
2.7
4.4
2.5
3.0
r
.4
1.8

1.5
.9
.1
_.6
-1.3
-.9
1.4
1.8
2.8
3.4
2.6
2.0

0.3

-2.0

-.2
1.0
.2
1.1
-.5
-.6
-.7
.4
.7
1.1
-1.0
.7

g
-.1
-.5
.6
1.1
.4
.3
r
.l
-.0
.1
.0

-3.5

-.7
1.2
2.4
4.7
3.7
2.0
.9
-.3
.8
.8
,2
2.5

8.7

3.5

3.7

1.6
-.1
_2.2
-4.4
-5.0
-3.5
1.2
2.4
4.0
4.9
3.9
1.8

2.4
1.9
2.8
2.6
2.2
1.8
2.6
3.0
2.1
2.8
2.4
2.2

2.2
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.3
1.8
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.3
.7
.6

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.

CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

All

Shelter
All
items *

Period

Food

Total1

Total1

Benters'
costs

Addendum: All items, percent
change (annual rate)

Transportation

Housing

Homeowners'
costs

Maintenance
and
repairs

NSA

NSA

Fuel
and
other
utilities

Apparel
and
upkeep

MediTotal1

New
cars

Motor
fuel 2

cal

care

Ener-

gy

3

items
less
food,
energy,
and
shelter

From
3
months
earlier

From

6

months
earlier

From
year
earlier

NSA

Change, December to December, NSA

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

..

70
48
68
90
133
124
89
39
3.8

65
6
80
11 8
102
102
43
31
2.6

75
54
76
99
152
13 7
102
36
3.5

73
42
87
11 5
174
15 1
99
24
4.7

5.1

4.5

55
71
72
10 1
103
10 6
92
42
5.0

11 2
90
81
59
160

13 6
145
97
1.8

23
45
42
32
55
68
36
16
2.9

98
88
43
77
182
14 7
11 0
17
3.9

7 3 11 0
26
48
49
72
62
85
7 4 522
75 189
94
68
1 6 — 65
3.4 -1.7

11 6

64

69

70

72

5.2
65

9.1
5.8
6.5
7.7

7.2
99
9.4

11.3
13.5
10.4

61

6.1
3.2

99
10 1
88
88
10 1
100
12 5
11 0
6.4

80
374

0.8

0.3

18 1
11 9
13

5.0

Change, month to month

1982: Dec
1983:

Jan.......

Feb
Mar.......

Apr
May
June
July

Aug
Sept

Oct
Nov
Dee
1

-0.3
.2
2
.1
.6
.5
.2
.4
.4
.5
.4
.3
.3

-0.0
.1
0
.6
.4
.3
-.3
-.1
.2
.3
.5
.1
.4

-0.8
.5
0
— .1
.5
.3
.2
.4
.2
.5
.2
.5
.2

-1.4
.7
.2
.0
.7
.3
.3
.5
.4
.5
.4
.4
.3

-0.4
0.6
.3
.2
.4
.5
.3
.6
.5
.7
.4
.4
.3

1.5
-1.0
.1
1.1
.2
.2
.3
.5
— .4
1.3
.7
.4

2
-.5
— .5
.2
.8
.0
.3
.3
.7
-.1
.8
-.0

Includes items not shown separately.
direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981.
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant,

2
Includes
3

etc.

4

0.7
.2
.0
.8
.3
.2
.5
.3
.5
.4
.4
.2

0.7

Energy excludes motor oil, coolant, etc. beginning January 1983.

NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.

24



-0.3

-0.1

.3
.5
-.1
.2
.7
.4
.6
.4
0
0
.1
i

-.6
-1.6
-.0
1.1
1.3
, .4
.5
1.0
.8
.6
.2
.3

0.3
.1
.9
.7
-.6
-.3
.1
0
.8
1.0
.7
.0
.1

-0.8
-3.3
-6.7
-1.0
3.9
4.1
.7
.4
1.2
.5
— .5
-.8
.1

.8
.8
.5
.5
.4
.5
.6
.5
.4
.4
.4
.5

4-2.5
-3.7
-.9
2.0
2.5
.3
.3
.7
.7

4

0
.1

0.5

0.5

2.3

3.9

.5
.4
.3
.2
.2
.4
.6
.5
.5
.6
.4
.3

-.4'
-1.2
.4
2.1
5.1
5.4
4.7
4.2
5.3
5.5
4.9
4.0

1.4
.4
.5
.8
1.9
2.9
3.4
4.7
5.4
5.1
4.6
4.7

3.8
3.5
3.6
3.9
3.5
2.6
2.4
2.6
2.9
2.9
3.2
3.8

Data beginning January 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers.
Data beginning January 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received by farmers rose 2.1 percent in January and prices paid by farmers rose 0.6 percent in the month
ended January 15.
INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE)

INDEX, 1977= TOO (RATIO SCALE)

60
1984
_!/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

[1977 = 100]
Prices paid by farmers

Prices received by farmers
Period

1976
1977

Livestock and
products

Crops

102
100
115
132
134
139
133
135

102
100
105
116
125
134
121
129

101
100
124
147
144
143
145
141

Oct .
Nov
Dec .

128
132
134
136
137
134
r
!32
139
136
134
135
140

114
118
r
!22
127
129
r
!27
r
!26
139
r
!35
r
!34
r
!34
137

142
146
146
145
144
141
137
139
137
135
135
143

Jan ....

143

137

150

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1983: Jan
Peb
Mar
Apr ....
May
June .

July
AufiT
Sept

1984:

All farm
products

1

Includes items not shown separately.
2
Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes,
and wage rates.

All commodities,
services,
interest, taxes,
and wage rates l

Production
items, interest,
taxes, and wage
rates

Production
items

Eatio 2

95
100
108
123
138
150
r
!57
161

95
100
109
125
139
151
r
!55
159

97
100
108
125
138
148
r
!50
153

107
100
106
107
97
93
r
85
84

r
!58
r

r

!57
157
r
!58
r
!59
r
!60
159
r
!59
159
r
!60
r
!59
r
!60
161

150
151
152
153
r
!53
r
!53
152
153
154
153
154
155

r

!59
159
r
!60
r
!61
r
!61
160
r
!61
r
!62
161
162
163
164

162

155

81
83
84
r
85
r
85
r
83
r
83
r
86
84
83
83
86
r

87

have been converted to a 1977 = 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes.
Series revised beginning 1982.
Source: Department of Agriculture.

NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes




25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS
Growth in Ml accelerated in December, while growth in the broader aggregates slowed.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS'(RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

400

400

200

200
1975
* SEASONALLY

1983

ADJUSTED

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1976:
1977:
1978:
19791980:
1981:
1982:
19831982:
1983:

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec p
Dec..
Jan
Feb
Mar
Aor
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov p
Dec p

Ml

M2

M3

L

Sum of currency,
demand deposits,
travelers' checks, and
other checkable deposits
(OCD) 1

Ml plus overnight BPs
and Eurodollars,
MMMF balances
(general purpose and
broker /dealer),
MMDAs, and savings
and small time deposits

M2 plus large time
deposits, term KPs, and
institution-only MMMF
balances

M3 plus other liquid
assets

310.4
335.5
363.2
389,0
414.1
440.6
478.2
521.1
478.2
482.1
491.1
497.6
496.5
507.4
511.7
515.5
516.7
517.1
517.9
518.3
521.1

1,163.5
1,286.4
1,388.5
1,497.5
1,630.3
1,794.9
1,959.5
2,184.6
1,959.5
2,010.0
2,050.8
2,069.9
2,074.8
2,096.2
2,114.4
2,126.3
2,136.9
2,145.4
r
2,161.6
2,174.6
2,184.6

1
Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions.
2
Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months
earlier at an annual rate.

26



,296.3
,451.8
,613.5
,758.4
,936.7
2,167.9
2,377.6
2,602.9
2,377.6
2,403.3
2,430.7
2,447.1
2,453.9
2,476.2
2,498.8
2,510.3
r
2,528.8
r
2,544.9
r
2,563.2
2,588.7
2,602.9

Percent change from year or 6
months earlier 2

Ml

1,522.4
1,711.0
1,922.9
2,131.8
2,343.6
2,622.0
2,896.7
2,896.7
2,930.6
2,960.2
2,987.5
3,005.8
3,031.3
3,058.6
3,087.8
3,116.2
3,137.9
3,155.2

NOTE.—See page 27 for components.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

6.6
8.1
8.3
7.1
6.5
6.4
8.5
9.0
11.2

12.6
14.8
15.4
12.2
14.6
14.5
14.3
10.7
8.0
8.8
4.3
3.7

M2

13.7
10.6
7.9
7.9
8.9
10.1
9.2
11.5
10.5
14.2
16.1
16.6
15.6
16.2
16.4
11.9
8.6
7.4
r
8.5
7.6
6.8

M3

11.6
12.0
11.1
9.0
10.1
11.9
9.7
9.5
10.7
10.8
10.0
9.9
8.9
9.1
10.5
9.1
8.2
r
8.2
r
9.1
9.3
8.5

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

Dec:
1976......
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 p...
1982:
Dec
1983:
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June......
July
Aug
Sept
Oct........
Nov
Dee*.....

Currency

Demand
deposits *

Other
checkable
deposits
(OCD)

Overnight
repurchase
agreements
(RPs),
net, plus
overnight
Eurodollars

General
purpose
and
broker/
dealer

Institution
only

NSA

NSA

NSA

Money market
mutual fund
balances
Money
market
deposit
accounts
(MMDAs)

Savings
depos.its

Small
denomination
time
deposits' 2

Large
denomination
time
deposits 2

NSA

Term
repurchase
agreements
(RPs)

Term
Eurodollars
(net)

NSA

NSA

Savings
bonds

Shortterm
Treasury
securi; ties

Bankers'
acceptances

Commercial
paper

43.2
372.4

453.0
491.6
481.2
423.1
400.7
-344.4
359.3
312.3

391.0
446.0
521.8
635.9
731.7
828.6
859.1
792.1

118.2
145.2
194.9
222.2
258.9
302.6
333.8
329.0

14.2
19.5
27.1
30.1
34.8
37.2
40.3
52.6

13.1
18.4
29.0
41.5
48.0
65.3
80.0

71.7
76.4
80.2
79.5
72.3
67.7
67.9

80.8
89.7
99.3
128.7
156.9
176.3
217.6

8.8
11.8
21.6
26.7
31.6
40.6
44.9

51.7
62.9
79.2
97.0
98.1
104.2
108.8

47.6

43.2

359.3

859.1

333.8

40.3

80.0

67.9

217.6

44.9

108.8

46.1
45.2
43.5
41.0
40.4
39.2
38.6
38.4
39.1
39.9
40.6
40.2

189.1
277.7
320.5
341.2
356.8
367.3
368.4
366.3
366.9
367.4
369.1
372.4

335.1
325.7
322.7
321.5
323.1
325.0
323.5
322.1
320.6
318.8
316.4
312.3

797.4
755.1
733.8
725.7
720.1
722.1
735.1
748.0
757.7
771.0
r
784.4
792.1

310.7
297.9
296.2
300.2
299.2
304.1
305.6
311.6
317.7
319.9
r
324.8
329.0

40.6
40.8
41.7
42.7
45.3
44.5
42.8
r
45.3
r
46.1
r
45.5
r
51.6
52.6

81.1
83.5
85.9
88.4
89.9
89.8
89.6
89.8
89.5
90.4

68.1
68.5
68.8
69.2
69.6
69.8
70.0
70.2
70.4
70.6

219.3
219.3
224.5
230.5
231.4
237.2
252.1
262.9
264.5
262.1

45.3
43.2
42.0
41.2
40.8
40.2
41.4
43.5
43.3
42.3

113.5
115.1
119.2
122.5
123.4
122.9
124.4
121.0
125.3
126.6

80.6
88.6
97.5
106.3
116.2
123.2
132.8
146.0

224.4
239.7
253.8
262.0
266.8
236.4
239.8
243.1

2.7
4.2
8.4
17.0
26.9
76.6
101.3
127.1

10.6
14.7
20.3
21.2
28.4
36.1
44.3
56.1

2.4
2.4
6.4
33.4
61.4
150.9
182.2
138.0

0.6
.9
3.1
9.5
14.9
36.0
47.6
40.2

132.8

239.8

101.3

44.3

182.2

134.2
135.6
137.0
138.0
139.3
140.3
140.9
141.8
143.0
144.2
145.3
141.0

239.4
238.7
240.1
238.9
242.5
244.0
245.8
244.5
243.4
242.9
241.6
243.1

104.5
112.5
116.0
115.0
120.9
122.7
124.2
125.8
126.0
126.0
126.5
127.1

47.3
48.9
48.8
50.6
55.1
56.0
52.7
52.1
53.0
r
56.5
r
55.2
56.1

166.7
159.6
154.0
146.7
141.1
139.7
138.8
139.1
137.6
137.8
138.7
138.0

1

Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions.
Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than
$100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively.
2

Travelers checks are a component of money stock but are not shown here.
NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

NOTE.—See p. 26 for overall measures.

CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Installment credit extended
Period

1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982

....

1982: Nov
Dec
1983: Jan....
Feb.....
Mar
Apr
May
June
July ....
Aue:
Sept
Oct
Nov .

Total 2

Automobile

210,740
257,600
297,668
324,777
306,076
334,508
344,901
31,691
30,777

63,743
75,641
87.981
93,901
83,454
93,240
95,997
10,177
9,716

Installment credit liquidated

Revolving

Total 2

Automobile

43,934
87,596
105,125
120,174
128,068
139,829
150,061
12,778
12,491

189,179
222,138
254,589
286,396
304,628
316,291
331,805
29,676
28,359

53,278
60,437
69,245
79,186
82,977
84,745
91,099
8,643
8,225

1
Through 1982 calculated as the difference between credit extensions and credit liquidations. Beginning 1983, calculated as change in amount outstanding.
2
Includes "mobile home" and "other," not shown separately.




Revolving

41,764
81,348
96,090
111,546
126,653
135,362
145,696
12,739
11,990

Amount outstanding, end of period,
seasonally adjusted

Net change in amount
outstanding 1
Total 2

Automobile

21,561
35,462
43,079
38,381
1,448
18,217
13,096
2,015
2,418
2,725
735
2,582
2,271
2,696
4,406
4,840
3,388
2,375
4,885
4,671

10,465
15,204
18,736
14,715
477
8,495
4,898
1,534
1,491
625
-233
1,221
689
1,313
1,973
2,421
2,521
285
1,772
1,238

Revolving

2,170
6,248
9,035
8,628
1,415
4,467
4,365
39
501
68
-135
1,177
917
514
1,210
821
313
479
1,145
1,300

Total 2

Automobile

190,725
226,646
269,392
307,115
308,137
326,274
339,316
336,897
339,316
342,041
342,776
345,358
347,629
350,325
354,731
359,571
362,959
365,334
370,219
374,890

67,798
82,890
101,863
116,523
116,808
125,323
130,235
128,824
130,235
130,860
130,627
131,848
132,537
133,850
135,823
138,244.
140,765
141,050
142,822
144,060

Revolving

16,505
36,427
45,004
53,174
54,650
58,722
62,830
62,326
62,830
62,898
62,763
63,940
64,857
65,371
66,581
67,402
67,715
68,194
69,339
70,639

NOTE.—Extensions and liquidations not available after December 1982.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

27

BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES
Commercial and industrial loans rose again in December.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200

1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200

-ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS

1,000

1,000

800

800

600

600

LOANS AND LEASES

400

400

INVESTMENT N OTHER SECURITIES

200

200

160

160

120

120

80

80

»NVESTMENT IN
U.S. TREASURY SECURITIES

III III I l l l l l

40

1975

1976

111III

INI

1977

I I I I I I l l l 11

ill

1111II

1980

1979

1978

1981

1982

40
1983

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AVERAGES OF WEDNESDAY FIGURES
SOURCE.- BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Depository institutions 3

All commercial banks 1

Loans and leases
Period

1976:
1977:
1978:
1979:
1980:
1981:
1982:
1983:

Dec
Dec
..... .
Dec
Dec .. ..
Dec
Dec
Dec
Deep...

1982- Dec
1983: Jan ..
Peb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct
Nov r
Dee*

Total loans
and
investments

Total 2

804.6
891.5
1,013.5
1,135.9
1,239.6
1,316.3
1,412.0
1,566.8

555.0
632.5
747.0
849.9
915.1
973.9
1,042.0
1,131.7

1,412.0

1,042.0

1,428.2
1,436.3
1,450.1
1,460.6
1,474.4
1,488.0
1,499.9
1,513.2
1,520.3
1,532.9
1,548.9
1,566.8

1,045.0
1,048.7
1,056.3
1,059.5
1,063.3
1,070.6
1,080.9
1,091.0
1,096.3
1,104.1
1,115.7
1,131.7

1984: Jan p
1
Data are
2
Excludes
3

averages of Wednesday figures.
loans to commercial banks in the United States.
Data are averages of daily figures.

28



Borrowings
(millions of dollars,
unadjusted)

Keserves adjusted
for changes in
reserve requirements

Investments

Commercial
and industrial
loans

U.S. Treasury
securities

190.9
210.9
245.9
291.2
326.8
358.0
392.3
413.1

100.8
99.8
93.8
94.5
110.0
111.0
130.9
188.1

148.8
159.3
172.8
191.5
214.4
231.4
239.2
247.0

26.80
28.00
29.44
30.71
32.46
33.75
36.23
37.59

26.74
27.43
28.57
29.24
30.77
33.11
35.60
36.82

26.52
27.81
29.21
30.38
31.94
33.43
35.73
37.03

62
558
874
1,473
1,617
636
697
748

12
54
134
82
116
53
33
96

392.3

130.9

239.2

36.23

35.60

35.73

697

33

395.2
394.9
396.2
392.9
392.9
395.0
399.2
402.5
402.6
404.7
407.8
413.1

139.8
144.5
151.0
157.8
166.1
171.2
172.9
174,4
176.9
182.3
186.2
188.1

243.3
243.1
242.8
243.4
245.0
246.2
246.1
247.8
247.1
246.5
247.1
247.0

35.63
36.10
36.80
37.15
37.13
37.61
37.80
37.69
37.72
37.62
37.41
37.59

35.10
35.52
36.01
36.14
36.18
35.98
36.35
36.15
36.28
36.78
36.50
36.82

35.09
35.66
36.37
36.68
36.68
37.13
37.29
37.25
37.22
37.12
36.88
37.03

500
557
852
993
902
1,714
1,382
1,573
1,441
837
912
748

33
39
53
82
98
121
172
198
191
142
119
96

37.44

36.73

36.82

r

Other
securities

Total

Nonborrowed

Required

Total

Seasonal

NOTE.—Beginning Dec, 1981, bank loans and investments and reserves aggregates have been
reduced because of shifts from U.S. banking offices to International Banking Facilities (IBFs).
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL
CORPORATE BUSINESS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Sources

Uses
External

Period

Total

Credit market funds

Internal *
Total

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1982: I

n

M
IV

1983: I

n

TTT*

Total

Securities
and
mortgages

Loans and
short-term
paper

Total

Other2

Capital
expenditures 3

Increase in
financial
assets

Discrepancy
(sources less
uses)

192.4
190.1
156.9
210.8
254.1
317.5
345.7
333.2
365.8
308.6

91.7
85.6
119.7
134.2
157.4
175.7
188.8
189.5
230.6
240.5

100.7
104.4
37.2
76.6
96.7
141.8
156.9
143.7
135.2
68.1

56.7
69.9
30.7
54.5
72.4
80.5
88.2
90.9
92.2
84.1

20.7
26.3
38.7
38.2
35.8
32.8
20.9
52.4
22.5
45.2

36.0
43.6
-8.0
16.3
36.6
47.7
67.3
38.5
69.7
38.9

44.0
34.5
6.5
22.1
24.3
61.3
68.8
52.8
43.0
-16.0

191.9
190.1
150.9
201.8
237.6
293.6
346.7
320.1
324.3
250.9

121.5
137.9
109.7
148.3
175.1
201.6
219.4
221.2
261.6
231.2

70.5
52.2
41.2
53.5
62.5
92.0
127.3
98.9
62.7
19.7

0.5
.0
6.0
9.0
16.5
23.8
-1.0
13.1
41.6
57.7

302.8
329.9
327.4
274.5

233.5
240.2
244.0
244.3

69.3
89.7
83.4
30.2

102.8
89.9
89.0
54.6

24.8
38.6
39.6
77.8

78.0
51.3
49.4
-23.2

-33.4
-.2
-5.6
-24.4

232.1
279.3
270.4
222.0

242.4
242.2
240.1
200.2

-10.3
37.1
30.3
21.8

70.8
50.5
56.9
52.5

323.4
396.3
387.7

250.7
270.3
291.1

72.7
126.0
96.6

69.2
77.1
80.1

64.7
84.0
33.4

4.5
69
46.7

3.5
48.8
16.4

276.2
338.7
338.4

202.4
252.9
281.5

73.8
85.8
56.9

47.2
57.6
49.3

1

Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital
consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained
abroad..
2
Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S.

3
Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S.
Government,
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL
CORPORATIONS
[Billions of dollars, except as noted]
Current assets
Ind of period

SIC series: 2
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
FTC-FRB series: 3
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1982- I

Total

Cash

U.S.
Government
securities

Notes and
accounts
receivable

Current liabilities

Other
current
assets

Inventories

Total

Notes and
accounts
payable

Other
current
liabilities

Net
working
capital

Current
ratio l

492.3
529.6
599.3
697.8
790.7

50.2
53.3
59.0
66.3
71.1

7.7
11.0
10.6
12.8
12.3

206.1
221.1
248.2
288.5
322.1

193.3
200.4
225.7
263.9
313.6

35.0
43.8
55.8
66.4
71.7

304.9
326.0
375.6
450.9
530.4

211.3
220.5
282.9
340.3
402.3

93.6
105.5
92.7
110.7
128.1

187.4
203.6
223.7
246.9
260.3

1.615
1.625
1.595
1.548
1.491

TTT
IV

735.4
759.0
827.4
912.7
1,043.7
1,214.8
1,327.0
1,419.3
1,425.4
1,418.0
1,417.2
1,441.8
1,425.4

73.2
82.1
88.2
97.2
105.5
118.0
126.9
131.8
144.0
121.8
124.1
126.9
144.0

11.1
19.0
23.5
18.2
17.2
16.7
18.7
17.4
22.4
16.5
16.5
18.9
22.4

265.8
272.1
292.9
330.3
388.0
459.0
506.8
530.3
511.0
533.4
531.2
534.2
511.0

319.5
315.9
342.5
376.9
431.8
505.1
542.8
585.1
575.2
591.6
587.6
596.5
575.2

65.9
69.9
80.3
90.1
101.1
116.0
131.8
154.6
172.6
154.7
157.9
165.3
172.6

453.4
451.6
495.1
557.1
669.5
807.3
889.3
976.3
977.8
987.0
988.7
1,007.6
977.8

269.8
264.2
282.1
317.6
383.0
460.8
513.6
558.8
552.8
552.9
554.9
562.7
552.8

183.6
187.4
213.0
239.6
286.5
346.5
375.7
417.5
425.0
434.0
433.8
444.9
425.0

282.0
307.4
332.4
355.5
374.3
407.5
437.8
442.9
447.6
431.0
428.5
434.2
447.6

1.622
1.681
1.671
1.638
1.559
1.505
1.492
1.454
1.458
1.437
1.433
1.431
1.458

1983: I
HP

1,436.5
1,464.2

139.7
145.7

25.8
27.5

517.9
534.3

573.2
570.5

179.9
186.2

986.3
997.7

543.2
551.6

443.1
446.1

450.2
466.5

1.456
1.468

n

1

Total current assets divided by total current liabilities.
Based on data from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury.
Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations, Federal Trade Commission and Department of Commerce.
2

3




NOTE.—SIC series not available after 1974.
See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce, Federal
Trade Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission.

29

INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS
Interest rates fell in January.

1

*

I An

:,*

*.

;.• / \ i /

\l
•J
/ *
•$K£-

A'
/' \l

DISCOUNT
r
RATE
If
FEDERAL
f
/
RESERVE ^XJ?
BANK OF J/ /"
NEW YORK L:/

.A

•*: ///A• i\ ./ \\

f
/

\' J
iiy Ak
::
I
n :• "-A* "•
i5 L

M //I
/
M/ iJ

S/

\
*

\

V

:

\
/Kv '" ^
/
^

\
\
i

^

n
»

M

If
II

i

CORPORATE Aaa BONDS |~"
T^^jJ
(MOODY'S) ^^
J/

^X

X

^^ s

^

^>|

C

/-"

/\

[

TREASURY -

\

/

BILLS

v

/

I./

V

rP

1
A\ i 1 i i 1 i I ! 1 1

V

M M 1I M M 1

1977

1976

M M 1 I I 1I I I J 1 | | 1 | M 1 1 1
1978

1

1979

1

11

MM

| M 11 1 1 1M 1

1980

1981

M M 1 1 M M 1

M M 11 M M i

M M i I I i I I IK

1982

1983

1984

^

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: SEE TABIE BB.OW

[Percent per annum]
U.S. Treasury security yields
Period

3-month bills l

Constant maturities
3-year

2

1 0-year

High-pade
municipal
bonds
(Standard3&
Poor's)

Corporate
Aaa bonds
(Moody's)

Prime
commercial
paper,
6 months 4
4

Discount rate
(N.Y. F.E.
Bank)5

Prime rate
charged 5by
banks

7.221
10.041
11.506
r
14.029
10.686
8.63

8.29
9.72
11.55
14.44
12.92
10.45

8.41
9.44
11.46
13.91
13.00
11.10

5.90
6.39
8.51
11.23
11.57
9.47

8.73
9.63
11.94
14.17
13.79
12.04

Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec ...
1984: Jan

7.810
8.130
8.304
8.252
8.19
8.82
9.12
9.39
9.05
8.71
8.71
8.96
8.93

9.64
9.91
9.84
9.76
9.66
10.32
10.90
11.30
11.07
10.87
10.96
11.13
10.93

10.46
10.72
10.51
10.40
10.38
10.85
11.38
11.85
11.65
11.54
11.69
11.83
11.67

9.45
9.48
9.16
8.96
9.03
9.51
9.46
9.72
9.57
9.64
9.79
9.90
9.61

11.79
12.01
11.73
11.51
11.46
11.74
12.15
12.51
12.37
12.25
12.41
12.57
12.20

8.15
8.39
8.48
8.48
8.31
9.03
9.36
9.68
9.28
8.98
9.09
9.50
9.18

8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50

11.50-11.00
11.00-10.50
10.50-10.50
10.50-10.50
10.50-10.50
10.50-10.50
10.50-10.50
11.00-10.50
11.00-11.00
11.00-11.00
11.00-11.00
11.00-11.00
11.00-11.00

Week ended:
1984: Jan 14
21
28
Feb 4
11

8.92
8.82
8.92
8.87
9.08

10.98
10.86
10.89
10.87

11.71
11.59
11.63
11.63

9.63
9.58
9.53
9.48

12.43
12.01
11.98
11.97

9.20
9.12
9.17
9.14

8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-8.50

11.00-11.00
11.00-11.00
11.00-11.00
11.00-11.00

1978 .
1979

1980 .
1981
1982
1983

7.99
10.91
12.29
14.76
11.89
8.89

7.46
10.28
11.77
13.41
11.02
8.50

High-low

1983: Jan
Feb .
Mar
Aw
May
June
July
AufiT ..

1

Rate on new issues within period; bank-discount basis.
Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department.
3
Weekly data are Wednesday figures.
4
Bank-discount basis. Prior to November 1, 1979, data are for 4-6 months paper.
6
Average effective rate for year; high and low rate for month and week.
2

30



9.06
12.67
15.27
18.87
14.86
10.79

New-home
mortgage
yields
(FHLBB)6

9.56
10.78
12.66
14.70
15.14
12.57

High-low

13.49
13.16
13.41
12.42
12.67
12.36
12.50
12.38
12.54
12.25
r
12.34
12.42
12.30

6
Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as
well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Bates beginning
January 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates.

Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS
Most stock price indexes rose in January.
INDEX, DEC 31, 1965=50
100

INDEX, DEC. 31,1965=50
1100

20
EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS

(S&P)

10 —

10

1984

1976

SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Common stock prices 1

Period

New York Stock Exchange indexes (I)ec. 31, 1965 — 5O)
Composite

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1983- Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
AufiT

Sept
Get
Nov
Dec r
1984- Jan
Week ended:
1984' Jan 14
21
28
Feb 4
1

Industrial

Transportation

3




Finance

Utility

Dow-Jones
industrial
average 3

Standard &
Poor's
composite
index (194143 = 10)4

Dividendprice ratio

53.70
58.32
68.10
74.02
68.93
92.63
83.25
84.74
87.50
90.61
94.61
96.43
96.74
93.96
96.70
96.78
95.36
94.92
96.16

58.23
64.76
78.70
85.44
78.18
107.45
95.37
97.26
100.61
104.46
109.43
112.52
113.21
109.50
112.76
112.87
110.77
110.65
112.16

43.50
47.34
60.61
72.61
60.41
89.36
75.65
79.44
83.28
85.26
89.07
92.22
92.91
88.06
94.56
95.41
97.68
98.79
97.98

39.22
38.20
37.35
38.91
39.75
47.00
45.59
45.92
45.89
46.22
47.62
46.76
46.61
46.94
48.16
48.73
48.50
47.00
47.43

56.65
61.42
64.25
73.52
71.99
95.34
85.66
86.57
93.22
99.07
102.45
101.22
99.60
95.76
97.00
94.79
94.48
94.25
95.79

820.23
844.40
891.41
932.92
884.36
1,190.34
1,064.29
1,087.43
1,129.58
1,168.43
1,212.86
1,221.47
1,213.93
1,189.21
1,237.04
1,252.20
1,250.01
1,257.64
1,258.89

96.02
103.01
118.78
128.05
119.71
160.41
144.27
146.80
151.88
157.71
164.10
166.39
166.96
162.42
167.16
167.65
165.23
164.36
166.39

5.28
5.47
5.26
5.20
5.81
4.40
4.79
4.74
4.59
4.44
4.27
4.26
4.21
4.35
4.24
4.25
4.31
4.32
4.27

97.08
96.69
95.22
93.93

113.25
112.83
111.02
109.20

99.66
99.92
95.88
91.81

47.80
47.43
47.22
47.40

97.12
96.43
94.42
93.57

1,278.29
1,266.71
1,235.78
1,213.06

167.88
167.16
164.77
162.66

4.24
4.25
4.33
4.42

Average of daily closing prices.
Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE.
Includes 30 stocks.
4
Includes 500 stocks.
5
Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings2

Common stock yields
(percent) 5

2

Earningsprice ratio
12.03
13.46
12.66
11.96
11.60

8.12
7.49
7.98

price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.
NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

31

FEDERAL FINANCE
FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT
In the first three months of fiscal year 1984, there was a budget deficit of $63.3 billion, compared to a budget
deficit of $68.3 billion a year earlier.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS
900

900

800

800

700

700

BUDGET OUTLAYS

600

600

500

500

400

400

BUDGET SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-)
_-~— -*^__

~"~

-100

onn

"

^^^^

r

-100

"\__
1
1976

1
1977

1
1978

1
1979

1
1980

1
1981

1
1982

1
1983

onn

1
1984

1985

FISCAL YEARS
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
Budget
receipts

Period

Fiscal year or period:
1972 ....
1973
1974 . .
1975
1976
Transition quarter
1977 ....
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984 (estimates)1
1985 (estimates)1
Cumulative total first 3 months:
Fiscal year 1983
Fiscal year 1984
1

.




Budget
surplus or
deficit (— )

Off-budget
surplus or
deficit (-)

Total
surplus or
deficit (— )

Federal debt (end of period)
Gross

Held by the
public

207.3
230.8
263.2
279.1
298.1
81.2
355.6
399.6
463.3
517.1
599.3
617.8
600.6
670.1
745.1

230.7
245.6
267.9
324.2
364.5
94.2
400.5
448.4
491.0
576.7
657.2
728.4
r
796.0
853.8
925.5

-14.8
-4.7
-45.2
-66.4
-13.0
-44.9
48.8
-27.7
59.6
-57.9
110.6
-195.4
183.7
-180.4

0.1
-1.4
-8.1
-7.3
-1.8
-8.7
-10.4
-12.5
-14.2
-21.0
-17.3
12.4
-16.2
-14.8

23.4
-14.9
-6.1
-53.2
-73.7
-14.7
-53.6
-59.2
-40.2
-73.8
-78.9
-127.9
r
- 207.8
-199.9
-195.2

437.3
468.4
486.2
544.1
631.9
646.4
709.1
780.4
833.8
914.3
1,003.9
1,147.0
1,381.9
1,591.6
1,828.4

323.8
343.0
346.1
396.9
480.3
498.3
551.8
610.9
644.6
715.1
794.4
929.4
1,141.8
1,324.8
1,517.8

137.0
149.4

205.3
212.7

-68.3
63.3

-1.1
.9

-69.4
-62.4

1,201.9
1,415.3

991.4
1,177.9

Estimates from the Budget of the United States Government, FT 1985, February 1984.

32

Budget
outlays

23.4

Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND
OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
in the first three months of fiscal year
budget outlays were $7.4

1984,

budget receipts

were $12.4 billion higher than a year earlier and

billion higher.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS Of DOLLARS

300

200

- 100

CORPORATION INCOME TAXES

BUDGET OUTLAYS

600

600
NONDEFENSE

500

500

400

400

300

300

200

200

100

100

1976

1977

1978

1979

1982

1980
1981
FISCAL YEARS

1984

1983

1985

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

[Billions of dollars]
Budget outlays

Budget receipts
National defense
Individual
income
taxes

Corporation
income
taxes

122.4
131.6
157.6
181.0
217.8
244.1

670.1
745.1

285.9
297.7
288.9
293.3
328.4

40.6
41.4
54.9
60.0
65.7
64.6
61.1
49.2
37.0
66.6
76.5

137.0
149.4

68.2
71.5

7.0
11.9

Period
Total

Other

Total
Total

Department of
Defense,
military

International
affairs

Social
security

and
medicare

Health

and

Net

income
secu-

inter-

Other

est

rity

Fiscal year or period:

1975

279.1
298.1

1976...

1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

..

1984 (estimates) * ..
1985 (estimates) 1
Cumulative total first 3 months:
Fiscal year 1983
Fiscal year 1984

355.6
399.6
463.3

. . . 517.1
599.3

617 8
600.6

116.1
125.0
143.0
158.6
179.8

324.2
364.5
400.5
448.4

208.4
252.2
270.8
274.6

576.7
657.2
728.4
796.0
853.8
925.5

310.2
340.2

1
Estimates from Budget of the United States Government, FY 1985, February 1984.
2
Starting in 1985 military retired pay will be financed from a trust fund in the income security
function. The national defense function will include accrual charges to pay for retirement benefits
earned by currently active duty personnel, and these will be offset in the undistributed offsetting
receipts (employer share, employee retirement). In this table the data for the earlier years have not
been adjusted to be comparable to this new usage.




61.8
66.0

491.0

205.3

212.7

2

237.5
272.0

51.4
54.9

264.4

7.1
5.7
5.0
6.1
6.3
10.9
11.3
10.1
9.0
13.5
17.5

50.0
53.3

2.1
4.0

84.9
87.9
95.6
103.0
115.0
132.8
156.0
182.9

85.6
89.4
97.5
105.2
117.7
135.9
159.7
187.4
210.5

205.0

231.0
2

202.5
223.3
240.2
260.3

56.8
69.2
70.1
70.8
76.6
97.6
112.4
119.5
134.9
126.6
2 147 3

23.2
26.7
29.9
35.4
42.6
52.5
68.7
85.0
89.8
108.2
116.1

74.1
83.7
93.6
114.2
117.3
129.1
126.4
123.8
128.5
127.6
2
112.2

55.0
57.8

34.4
32.1

22.6
25.7

39.8
38.1

77.5
89.7
104.4
116.6
130.6
150.6
178.7

NOTE.—The Social Security Amendments of 1983 require that social security and medicare be
shown in the budget as a separate function. In previous budgets social security was in the income
security function and medicare was in the health function. The data in this table have been reconstructed to be comparable for all years shown.
Data shown here exclude the transition quarter.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

33

FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS
In the third quarter of 1983, Federal receipts fell $7.4 billion (annual rate) and expenditures rose $13.8 billion,
yielding a deficit of $187.3 billion. In the fourth quarter, according to preliminary estimates, expenditures rose
$14.5 billion,* receipts data are incomplete.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
900

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
900

800

700

SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-)

-100
-200
1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

I

1981

1982

SOURCE-. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1983
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Federal Government expenditures

Federal Government receipts

Period

Total

Fiscal year:
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
Calendar year:
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 p

1982- I

n
in

..

IV

1983- I

n
in
rv f

Personal
tax and
nontax
receipts

Corporate
profits
tax
accruals

Indirect
business
tax and
nontax
accruals

Contributions for
social
insurance

Total

Purchases
of goods
and
services

Transfer
payments

Grantsin-aid to
State
and
local
governments

Net
interest
paid

Subsidies
less
current
surplus of
Government
enterprises

Surplus
or deficit
Less:
Wage
accruals
less
disbursements

national
income
and
product
accounts

. 480.8
525,9
610,3
627.8
630.7

222.6
250.4
289.3
310.4
295.3

76.1
69.9
70.5
51.3
54.3

29.1
35.5
53.6
50.3
50.7

153.1
170.0
196.9
215.7
230.4

495.6
576.5
668.1
740.0
816.4

164.1
189.3
218,5
251.0
274.7

201.8
239.4
279.3
310.2
344.7

79.1
86.7
90.1
83.4
85,7

40,6
50.7
67,7
82.2
90.6

9.9
10.4
12.5
13.2
20.3

-0.0
,0
.1
-.0
— 4

-14.8
-50.7
-57.8
-112.2
-185.7

493.6
540.9
627.0
617.4
643.3

230.6
257.7
298.6
304.7
295.8

74.2
70.3
67.5
46.5
59.3

159.5
173.9
204.5
217.9
234.4

509.7
602.1
689.2
764.4
826.2

306.5
308.5
300.6
303.0

47.6
48.4
47.8
42.1

215.8
217.6
218.9
219.3

728.0
735.4
773.5
820.9

168.3
197.0
229.2
258.7
275.2
249.7
244.1
261.7
279.2

209.2
251.5
286.6
321.1
344.5
302.5
311.2
325.9
344.8

80.5
88.7
87.9
83.9
86.5
82.5
85.1
83.0
85.0

42.4
53.4
73.2
84.9
96.7
79,7
82.3
88.6
89.1

9.2
11.5
12.4
15.8
22.8
13.4
12.7
14.2
22.8

-.0
.0

619.5
622.2
615.2
612.6

29.4
39.0
56.4
48.3
53.9
49.5
47.7
47.9
48.3

-16.1
-61.2
-62.2
-147.1
-182,9
-108.5
-113.2
-158,3
-208.2

623.3
652.6
645.2

297.7
304.2
286.9
294.3

48.6
59.8
66.6

48.6
56.0
55.5
55.3

228.5
232.6
236.2
240.2

806.6
818.7
832.5
847.0

273.5
273.7
278.1
275.6

340.3
347.0
343,5
347.3

85.8
86.7
87.2
86.5

88.4
91.8
101.0
105.7

18.6
18.2
22.3
31.9

.0
-1.3
-.4
.0

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury,
and Office of Management and Budget.

34



.1

-.0
-.4
.0
.0
.0

-183.3
-166.1
-187.3

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
[1967 = 100]

Consumer prices (unadjusted)

Industrial production (seasonally adjusted)
Period

1977

1978
1979
1980
1981... .
1982
1983: Jan
Feb .
Mar
Am"
May
June
July
Aug
Sent
Oct
Nov..
Dee*
1

United
States

Canada

Japan

France

Germany

138.2
146.1
152.5
147.0
151.0
138.6
137.4
138.1
140.0
142.6
144.4
146.4
149.7
151.8
r
153.8
r
155.0
r
!56 1
156.9

152.7
157.8
167.6
165.1
166.6
148.8
149.3
149.2
149.9
151.6
153.3
156.7
158.6
r
160.5
r
163.7
164.5

189.7
201.1
215.3
225.2
227.5
228.4
227.3
225.9
231.5
230.6
231.1
233.3
234.0
241.2
241.9
241.4

152
154
161
160
157
154
156
156
155
156
160
157
160
160
157
155

152.0
154.1
161.8
162.3
159.9
156.2
154
154
157
155
157
160
157
157
158

Italy

United
Kingdom

United
States *

124.2
127.8
132.8
124.1
119.2
121.7
123.6
124.2
122.8
123.0
123.9
121.8
125.4
125.2
125.3

181.5
195.4
217.4
246.8
272.4
289.1
293.1
293.2
293.4
295.5
297.1
298.1
299.3
300.3
301.8
302.6
303.1
303.5

145.1
147.9
157.6
166.5
162.7
159.1
150.0
148.9
148.2
141.5
148.5
145.1
146.9
134.9
150.4
r
148.6
1524

Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers.

Canada

Japan

Prance

Germany

185.9
202.5
221.0
243.5
273.9
r
303.5
312.5
313.9
317.1
317.1
317.9
321.5
322.9
324.5
324.5
326.5
326.5
327.5

243.0
252.3
261.3
282.2
296.2
304.1
306.6
305.5
307.5
308.6
312.0
309.7
308.3
307.4
311.4
314.2
312.2

214.5
233.9
259.1
294.2
332.7
373.1
390.1
392.9
396.5
401.8
404.5
406.9
410.4
412.8
416.0
419.2
420.9

155.9
160.2
166.8
175.9
186.3
196.2
199.8
200.0
199.8
200.3
201.1
201.8
202.6
203.2
203.6
203.6
204.1

Italy
255.2
286.2
328.5
398.0
472.4
549.4
602.7
610.5
616.0
622.2
628.2
632.2
638.5
641.1
649.4
660.4
667.0

United
Kingdom
292.4
316.6
359.0
423.6
473.9
514.7
523.5
525.8
526.7
534.1
536.4
537.7
540.6
543.0
545.4
547.3
549.2

Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, Office of Trade Information and Analysis, Trade Performance Division, in International
Economic Indicators.

U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Merchandise exports 1
Period

and

foreign
exports

General imports

Domestic exports

Total
domestic
Total2

Food,
beverages, and
tobacco

Crude
materials and
fuels

Merchandise trade balance

Merchandise imports

Manufactured
goods

Food,
beverages, and
tobacco

Total2

Crude
materials and
fuels

3

Manufactured
goods

Total
(c.i.f.
value)

4,257
5,398
6,379
8,360
9,352
10,427

8,823
11,042
13,368
15,504
18,519
21,415

Ixports
(f.a.s.)
less
imports
(customs
value)

Exports
(f.a.s.)
less
imports
(f.a.s.)

Ixports
(f.a.s.)
less
imports
(c.i.f.)

762
-688
-2,430
-2,590
-2,300
-2,020

148
-1,440
-3,265
-3,530
-3,364
-3,030

F.a.s. value
Monthly average:
1975*
1976*.
1977*
1978* .
1979*
1980

8,971
9,602
10,103
11,973
15,155
18,386

8,847
9,462
9,919
11,762
14,886
18,043

1,399
1,436
1,330
1,717
2,049
2,534

1,266
1,341
1,548
1,746
2,352
2,810

5,913
6,437
6,679
7,873
9,716
11,991

8,209
10,290
12,533
14,563
17,455
20,406

827
991
1,186
1,312
1,478
1,546

2,716
3,457
4,463
4,325
5,949
7,831

Customs value

1981
1982
1983...

19,473
17,683
16,707

19,075
17,256
16,326

1982: Dec
1983: Jan .
Peb
Mar
Apr
May
June

16,347
17,393
16,326
16,752
16,074
15,566
17,008
16,629
16,630
17,387
16,951
16,848
17,180

July
AufiT

Sept
Get
Nov
Dec.

2,767
2,248
2,248

2,752
2,793
2,463

12,857
11,643
11,034

21,748
20,329
21,504

1,529
1,485
1,568

7,739
6,200
5,670

11,873
12,002
13,621

22,779 -2,275
21,240 -2,647
22,490 -4,797

15,913

1,966

2,420

10,648

19,154

10,988

20,002 -2,808

2,312
2,224
2,307
2,079
2,010
2,194
2,114
2,086
2,337
2,418
2,504
2,387

2,760
2,443
2,375
2,549
2,279
2,377
2,382
2,781
2,756
2,289
2,234
2,570

11,263
10,743
11,062
10,545
10,331
11,560
11,125
10,855
11,189
11,249
11,198
11,314

20,021
19,015
19,525
19,771
21,514
21,024
21,950
22,782
22,175
24,763
23,179
22,448

1,414
1,582
1,530
1,479
1,612
1,652
1,456
1,560
1,551
1,587
1,722
1,554
1,550

6,158

17,007
15,984
16,335
15,722
15,186
16,652
16,300
16,243
17,022
16,499
16,449
16,777

5,911
4,413
4,655
4,511
5,845
5,562
6,014
6,577
6,445
6,889
5,892
5,334

11,981
12,561
12,672
12,856
13,351
13,249
13,842
13,913
13,377
15,528
15,197
15,016

20,962
19,906
20,381
20,675
22,473
21,964
22,988
23,817
23,194
25,917
24,248
23,481

1
Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginning
January 1978.
2
Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.
3
Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.
NOTE.—Imports on c.lf. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods.




-2,628
-2,689
-2,774
-3,697
-5,948
-4,016
-5,321
-6,152
-4,788
-7,812
-6,331
-5,268

3306
-3,558
-5,783
3655
-3,569
-3,580
-3,630
-4,601
-6,907
-4,956
-6,359
-7,187
-5,807
-8,966
-7,401
6301

Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Islands exports are reflected in the figures for domestic and foreign exports combined and trade balance.
'Data for 1975-79 for domestic and foreign exports combined, total general imports, and trade
balance include trade of the Virgin Islands.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

35

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
The merchandise trade deficit increased again in the fourth quarter of 1983, bringing the deficit for the whole
year to $60.6 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*

-15

-20

-25

-25

1984
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits (—)]
Investment income 8

Merchandise l 2
Period

1975
1976

1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 p

Other
services,
net 3

Remittances,
pensions,
and other
unilateral
trans-1
fers

Balance
on

current
account

balance

Eeceipts

Payments

107,088
114,745
120,816
142,054
184,473
224,237
237,019
211,217
200,009

-98,185
-124,228
151 907
-176,020
212 028
-249,781
-265,086
-247,606
-260,605

8,903
-9,483
-31,091
-33,966
-27,555
-25,544
-28,067
-36,389
-60,596

25,351
29,286
32,179
42,245
64,132
72,445
86,243
84,146

-12,564
-13,311
14 217
-21,680
32 914
-42,875
-52,760
-56,842

12,787
15,975
17,962
20,565
31,218
29,570
33,483
27,304

55,636
54,996
52,241
48,344

-61,739
-60,850
-65,319
-59,698

6 103
-5,854
13 078
-11,354

20,761
22,316
21,569
19,499

13 824
-14,779
-14,748
-13,491

6,937
7,537
6,821
6,008

-51
201
54
-26

-208
-561
-557
-769

2,050
1,914
1,906
1,951

2,625
3,236
-4,854
-4,190

-2,061
-1,802
-1,742
-2,431

r

17,697
19,027
20,622

-12,608
-13,326
-13,694

5,089
5,701
6,928

516
117
-21

-935
-1,222
-745

2,114
2,234
2,092

-2,026
-7,832
-9,915

-1,561 -3,587
-1,823 -9,655
-2,061 -11,976

TTT
IV

IV

travel and
transportation
receipts

Balance
on goods
and
services *

Imports

n . ...
n
m.p.
p

Net

Exports

1982- I

1983- I.

Net

Net
military
transactions

r

r

r

r

49,352
48,759
r
50,429
51,469

1
Excludes military grants.
2
Adjusted from Census data
3

r

-58,221
- 63,470
-68,641
70 273

- 8,869
- 14,711
r
- 18,212
-18,804
r

for differences in timing and coverage.
Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the
United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net.

36



Net

-2,792
-2,558
1,528 -3,565
621 -3,573
1 778 -2,935
-2,'286 -1,434
-598
-1,355
179 -2,095
-746
559

22,749
4,598
9,205
4,711
5,272 -9,894
6,013 -10,340
4,686
5,735
7,477
7,172
11,523
8,060
7,822 -3,177

18,136
-4,613
4,207
-4,998
-4,617 -14,511
-5,106 -15,446
-964
-5,649
421
-7,056
4,592
-6,931
-8,034 -11,211

NOTE.—Merchandise data revised for 1983; other data to be revised later.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

564
1,434
-6,596
-6,621

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $0.5 billion in the third quarter
compared to a decrease of $5.2 billion in the second quarter. Liabilities to foreigners and international financial
institutions reported by U.S. banks increased $17.4 billion compared to a $4.0 billion increase in the second
quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
60

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*
60

-20

-20

-40

40

-60

-60

1976

1984

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Foreign assets in the U.S., net
[increase /capital inflow (+)] 2

U.S. assets abroad, net
[increase /capitiid outflow (— ) ]
Period
Total

1975
1976

1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1982: I

n
m

IV

1983: I

n
HP....

U.S.
official
reserve
assets l 2

Other U.S.
Government
assets

U.S.
private
assets

Total

Other
foreign
assets

Total (sum
of the items
with sign
reversed)

Of which:
Seasonal
adjustment
discrepancy

U.S. official
reserve
assets, net 1
(unadjusted,
end of
period)

16,226
18,747
19,312
18,650
18,956
26,756
30,074
33,958

-39,703
51 269
-34,785
61 130
-64,331
-86,052
-110,601
-118,045

-849
-2,558
-375
732
-1,133
-8,155
-5,175
4965

-3,474
4 214

-35,380
-44,498
-30,717
57 202
-59,453
-72,757
-100,348
-107,348

15,670
36,518
51,319
64,036
38,752
54,922
80,678
87,866

7,027
17,693
36,816
33,678
13665
15,566
5,430
3,172

8,643
18,826
14,503
30,358
52,416
39,356
75,248
84,694

-31,456
-40,934
26 099
-19,553

-1,089
-1,132
794
-1,950

-807
-29,560
1 489
38313
-2,502 -22,803
16670
934

27,124
31,612
17,613
11,517

-3,061
1,930
2,642
1,661

30,185
29,682
14,972
9,855

3,768
7,887
15,082
14,657

-729
881
-1,190
1,042

29,944
30,671
30,993
33,958

-21,699
-658
-6,429

-787
16
529

-1,053
-1,162
1 188

16,452
10,956
18,487

49
1,973
-3,235

16,403
8,983
21,722

8,833
-644
-82

-212
792
-1,355

34,261
33,876
33,066

-3,693
-4,660
-3,746
-5,140
-5,078
-5,732

19 859
488
-5,770

1
Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve
position in the IMF.
2
Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.




Foreign
official
assets

Statistical discrepancy
Allocations
of special
drawing
rights
(SDBs)

5,897
10,544
— 2,023

1,139
1,152
1,093

12,540
25,404
29,556
24,238
41,390

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the
Treasury.

37

Contents
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING

page

Gross National Product
Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product
Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures
Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits
National Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Sources of Personal Income
Disposition of Personal Income
Farm Income
Corporate Profits
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment—Nonfarm Business

1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
Status of the Labor Force
Selected Unemployment Rates
Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector

11
12
13
14
15
15
16

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures
New Construction
New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates
Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

17
18
19
19
20
21

PRICES
Producer Prices
Consumer Prices
Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods
Changes in Consumer Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers

22
23
24
24
25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets
Components of Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets
Consumer Installment Credit
Bank Loans and Investments, and Reserves
Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business
Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations
Interest Rates and Bond Yields
Common Stock Prices and Yields

26
27
27
28
29
29
30
31

FEDERAL FINANCE
Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt
Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function
Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis

32
33
34

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries
U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports
U.S. International Transactions

35
35
36

General Notes
Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.
Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.
Symbols used:
p
Preliminary.
r
Revised.
c
Corrected.
... Not available (also, not applicable).
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Washington, B.C. 20402. Price $4.25 (single copy) ($5.35 foreign).
Subscription price: $25.00 per year; $31.25 for foreign mailing.

38



O

U.S.

GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1984

0—30-484