Full text of Economic Indicators : January 1977
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95th Congress, 1st Session LIBRARY r F ' P ' 1077 FEDERAL: RESERVE 3ANK OF OHICAG© Economic Indicators January 1977 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1977 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) RICHARD BOLLING, Missouri, Chairman HUBERT H. HUMPHREY, Minnesota, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES HENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin) WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania) LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana) GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana) OTIS G. PIKE (New York) CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio) GARRY BROWN (Michigan) MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts) JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California) SENATE JOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama) WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) ABRAHAM RIBICOFF (Connecticut) LLOYD M. BENTSEN, JR. (Texas) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) JACOB K. JAVITS (New York) CHARLES H. PERCY (Illinois) WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) JOHN R. STARK, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS CHARLES L. SCHULTZE, Chairman Economic Indicators f refared under supervision of FRANCES M. JAMES [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sx Congress; CHAPTER 237—1st SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at 85 cents a single copy or by subscription at $10.10 per year ($2.55 additional for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON D.C. 20402 Subscribers who wish to receive it at an earlier date after release may take advantage of provisions for airmail subscriptions. The domestic airmail subscription price is $3.60 additional per year. ii TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to preliminary estimates for the fourth quarter, gross national product rose $38.7 billion or at an annual rate of 9.4 percent. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent. The implicit deflator rose at a 6.2 percent annual rate. BILLfONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 1,800 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 1968 1972 1971 1970 1969 1974 1973 1975 1976 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SQURCf; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Per- Period Gross sonal tional prod- sumption con- na- ex- uct 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 » 1975: I II___ III__ 753. 796. 868. 935. penditures 0 3 5 5 982.4 464. 8 490.4 535. 9 579.7 618.8 1, 063. 4 668.2 1, 171. 1 733.0 1, 306. 6 809. 9 1, 413. 2 887.5 1, 516. 3 973.2 1, 692. 4 1, 078. 6 1, 446. 2 933. 2 1, 482. 3 960. 3 1, 548. 7 987. 3 IV___ 1, 588. 2 1, 012. 0 1, 636. 2 1, 043. 6 1976: I II — 1, 675. 2 1, 064. 7 1, 709. 8 1, 088. 5 IV *>_ 1, 748. 5 1, 117. 5 m___ Gross private domestic investment Export& and inif >orts of gooc .s and ser vices Net ex- ports Exports services Federal Imports Total Na- Total tional de- 1 fense 124. 5 120.8 131.5 146. 2 140. 8 160. 0 188.3 220. 0 215. 0 183.7 241.2 172.4 164.4 19a 7 201. 4 229.6 239. 2 247.0 249.0 5. 1 4.9 2.3 1.8 3.9 1.6 -3.3 7. 1 7. 5 20.5 6. 9 15.0 24.4 21.4 21. 0 8. 4 9.3 4.7 5.2 42. 8 45. 6 49. 9 54.7 62. 5 65. 6 72. 7 101. 6 144. 4 148. 1 161. 9 147. 5 142. 9 148. 2 153. 7 154. 1 160. 3 167. 7 165.6 37.7 40.6 47.7 52.9 58. 5 64.0 75.9 94.4 136.9 127.6 155. 1 132. 5 118. 5 126. 8 132. 7 145. 7 151. 0 163.0 160.4 1 This category corresponds closely with budget outlays for national defense, shown on p. 33. Go^yernment purchases of goods and 158.7 180.2 198.7 207.9 218.9 233.7 253. 1 269.5 303. 3 339.0 365. 8 325. 6 333. 2 343. 2 353. 8 354. 7 362. 0 369. 6 376.8 78.8 90. 9 98.0 97.5 95.6 96.2 102. 1 102.2 111. 6 124.4 133.4 120.3 122. 4 124. 6 130. 4 129.2 131. 2 134. 5 13a9 60.3 71.5 76.9 76.3 73.5 70.2 73.5 73. 5 77.3 84.3 88. 2 82. 0 83.4 84. 6 87. 1 86.2 86.9 88.5 9L3 Nonde- fense 18. 5 19. 5 21. 2 21. 2 22. 1 26. 0 28.6 28.7 34.3 40. 1 45. 2 38. 3 39. 0 40. 0 43.2 42.9 44.2 46.0 47.6 State and local 79.8 89.3 100.7 110.4 123. 2 137.5 151. 0 167.3 191.6 214. 5 232.3 205. 3 210. 9 218.6 223. 4 225. 5 230. 9 235.0 238. 0 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Final sales 738.7 786.2 860.8 926.2 978. 6 1, 057. 1 1, 161. 7 1, 288. 6 1, 402. 5 1, 531. 0 1, 679. O 1, 468. 4 1, 512. 3 1, 550. 6 1, 592. 5 1, 621. 4 1, 659. 2 1, 694 7 1, 74a 6 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS [Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Exj>orts of gc>ods Gross private dc mestic and serviceis i avestmen fc Personal conGross Change national sumpNonResi- in busition product Net resiExports Imports expend- dential dential ness in- exports ventofixed itures fixed ries Period Total Federal State and local Final sales ai 7.6 16.5 22.6 15.9 51.6 542 58.5 62.2 67.1 67.9 72.7 87.4 97.2 90,6 95.7 47.3 50.7 58.9 63. 5 65.7 68.5 75.9 79.9 80.7 68. 1 79.8 229.3 248.3 259.2 256. 7 250.2 249.4 253. 1 252.5 256.4 261.0 2642 112.5 12&3 128.3 121.8 110.7 103.9 102. 1 96.6 95.3 95.7 96.7 116.8 123. 1 130.9 134 9 139.5 145.5 151.0 155.9 161. 1 165.2 167.5 9643 995.7 1, 043. 1 1, 068. 2 1, 071. 0 1, 100. 9 1, 161. 7 1, 218. 5 1, 205. 5 1, 203. 7 1, 255. 9 110.5 35.4 36.8 39.6 41.9 -20.5 -21.2 -1.0 -5.5 20. 1 243 22.8 23. 1 90.3 87.7 90.7 93.9 70.2 63.4 67.9 70.8 257. 1 259.1 262.4 265.2 948 95.3 95.6 97.2 162.2 163. 8 166.9 168.0 1, 181. 6 1, 198. 2 1, 210. 2 1, 224 7 112.6 1149 117.5 117.8 441 45.7 47.4 51.3 10.4 11.1 HX2 47 16.6 16.0 15.7 15.3 93.6 95.4 9&0 95.8 77.0 79.4 261.9 263.6 265.5 265.8 95.4 96.0 97.3 9& 1 166. 6 167.7 168.2 167.7 1, 235. 9 1, 248. 8 1, 262. 0 1, 276. 8 43 3.5 ^ -L3 1.4 -.6 sa4 16.7 12.0 8.7 10,6 43 6.6 9.4 16.5 8.5 -12.0 iiae na i 981.0 1, 007. 7 1, 051. 8 1, 078. 8 1, 075. 3 1, 107. 5 1, 171. 1 1, 235. 0 1, 214. 0 1, 191. 7 1, 265. 0 586. 1 603.2 633.4 655.4 668.9 691.9 733.0 767.7 759.1 770.3 812.9 106. 1 103. 5 108.0 114. 3 110.0 108.0 116. 8 131.0 128.5 111.4 115.7 3&5 37.2 42.8 43. 2 40.4 52.2 62. 0 59. 7 45.0 1, 161. 1 1975: I II___ 1, 177. 1 III- 1, 209. 3 IV._ 1, 219. 2 7546 767.5 775.3 783.9 114.4 1, 246. 3 1976:1 II__. 1, 260. 0 III.. 1, 272. 2 IV ». 1, 281. 5 800.7 808.6 815.7 826.6 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975__ 1976 » Govern:oaent pure bases of gooc s and services 47; 1 -as 82.3 80.5 IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1972=100] Personal consumj>tion expe nditures Period Gross national product Total 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976" 1975:1 II III... IV 1976: 1 II III IV' NonNonresDurable durable Services idential goods fixed goods Residential fixed Expoi ts and imports of goods and scjrvices 79.3 81.3 846 88.5 92.5 96.6 100. 0 105.5 116.9 126.3 132.7 85.7 87.4 90.7 93.1 95.5 99. 0 100.0 101.6 108.3 117.7 1244 80.1 81.9 85.3 89.4 93. 6 96. 6 100.0 107.9 1240 133.7 138.0 76.5 78. 8 82. 0 86. 1 90.5 95.8 100.0 1047 113.5 122.7 130.9 76.8 79.3 82.6 86. 6 91. 3 96.4 100.0 103.8 116. 1 132. 1 13&3 746 77.0 80.7 87.7 90.6 94.9 100.0 110. 8 122. 3 133.2 143.8 82.8 840 85. 3 87. 9 93. 1 96.6 100. 0 116.2 14&6 163.4 169. 2 124 55 125. 93 _ 128.07 130. 27 123. 7 125. 1 127.3 129. 1 115. 1 117. 1 118.2 120.2 131. 2 132. 1 135. 1 136.2 119.7 121. 5 123.6 125.9 129. 4 131. 8 132. 7 1345 131.5 132.1 132.8 135.9 163.4 163.0 163. 4 163. 7 131. 29 132. 96 13440 136. 44 130. 3 131.7 121.8 123.8 1249 127-0 136.4 136.9 138.5 13a9 12a 0 129.8 132.0 13&8 136. 2 137.5 138.7 14a5 139. 0 142.9 145.3 147.3 1646 168. 1 171.1 172.9 m.4 135. 2 Govenujaent purchases <:>f goods and s<jrvices State Exports Imports Federal and local 76.76 79. 02 82.57 86.72 91. 36 96.02 100. 00 105. 80 116. 41 127. 25 13a79 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Gross private dom estic inves tment 79.7 80. 1 80.9 83.3 89.1 93.5 100. 0 na2 169.6 187.4 1943 188. 9 18&9 186. 6 187. 3 189.2 190.4 19a 1 199.4 70. 1 72.6 76.4 80.0 86.4 92. 6 100.0 105. 8 117. 1 130.0 i3ao 68.4 72.5 76.9 81.9 88.3 945 100.0 107.3 119.0 129.8 138. 7 126.8 128.4 130.4 134 2 126.5 128.7 131.0 132.9 135.4 136.7 135.4 137.7 139.7 141.9 isa 3 141.5 CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross domestic product Gross national product 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971. 1972 1973____ 1974 1975 1976 9 - .- 1975:1 II. III IV _ __ 1976: I II . _- Ill IV Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars Period 9 Implicit price deflator Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) Chain pice index Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars Implicit price deflator ai 9.4 5.8 9.1 7.7 5.0 8.2 10.1 11.6 8.2 7. 3 11.6 5.9 2.7 4.4 2.6 -.3 3.0 5.7 5. 5 -1. 7 -1.8 6.2 3.3 2.9 4.5 5.0 5.4 5. 1 4. 1 5. 8 10. 0 9. 3 5.1 3.1 3.0 4.4 5.0 5.3 5.0 4. 1 6.0 10.0 9.2 5.3 2.9 3.0 4.3 5.0 5.2 4.9 4.0 6.0 10.0 9.2 5.4 9.6 5.7 9.1 7.8 5.0 8.1 10.1 11.5 7.8 7.7 11.5 2.7 4.4 2.6 —.3 2.8 5.8 5.4 — 1. 7 — 1.7 6.1 3.3 3.0 4.5 5.1 5.3 5.1 4,1 5.7 9.6 9.5 5.1 -.8 10.4 19. 1 10.6 -9.9 5. 6 11.4 3. 3 10. 1 4, 5 7.0 7. 1 9.2 5.4 7.3 6.4 8.9 5.4 7.3 6.6 .7 10. 1 19.1 10.8 -9.2 5.4 11.3 3.4 12.6 9.9 8.5 9.4 9.2 4.5 3.2 5.2 4.4 &2 4.3 5.4 4.6 5.8 4.2 5.2 4.6 5.8 12.2 10.1 &2 9.3 9.0 4.6 3.8 2.9 a9 3.0 NOTE.—Annual changes from previous year and quarterly changes from previous quarter. Chain price index 3.1 Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) 4.4 5.0 5.3 5.0 4.1 5.9 9.7 9.3 5.5 3.0 3.0 4.4 5.0 5.2 4.9 4.0 5.9 9.7 9.2 5.5 10.9 4. 5 7.0 7. 1 9.4 5.5 7.4 a4 9.0 5.5 7.4 a7 3.0 5.3 4.2 4.3 5.4 4.4 5.8 4.2 5.3 4,4 5.9 as ai Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 9 1975:1 !!___ III__ IV___ 1976: I II—. III— Gross d .omestic prodinet of nonfir lancial corp orate business (bfflic >ns of doU ars) Current dollars 1972 dollars 430.7 452.9 498.4 541.8 560.6 602. 5 671.0 752.0 810.0 870.4 982. 6 822. 3 851. 1 892. 0 916. 1 949. 0 972. 8 993. 8 532.9 545.8 581.6 607.3 600.6 619.3 671.0 720.4 698.7 676. 8 72a8 653. 1 668. 1 688. 9 696. 1 713. 9 725.7 731. 5 Current doliar cost and profit per unit of outpu t (dollars] * Capital consumption ComTotal penallowcost Net ances Indirect sation and with business of inprofit * capital taxes * employ- terest conees sumption adjustment 0.808 .830 .857 .892 .933 .973 1.000 1. 044 1. 159 1.286 1. 352 1.259 1.274 1. 295 1.316 1. 329 1.341 1. 359 0.067 .072 .074 .079 .088 . 094 .093 .095 . 116 . 143 . 148 . 139 . 142 . 143 . 146 . 146 .147 . 149 0.080 .084 .089 .094 . 103 . 110 . 110 . 112 . 123 . 138 .138 . 135 . 138 . 139 . 140 . 136 . 137 . 138 1 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate isiness in 1972 dollars. * This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. * Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. Corpc>rate profits with invent*Dry valualiion and capil al consuniption £idjustmen ts Total Profits tax liability 0.513 0.014 0. 134 0.055 . 123 .051 .535 .016 . 124 .553 .017 .058 . 022 .109 .589 .055 .028 .086 .628 .045 .095 .029 .645 .048 . 107 . 661 .028 . 050 .032 . 105 .699 .055 . 794 . 041 .085 . 061 . 853 .045 . 107 . 059 . 049 ; 133 .072 ;883 .863 . 046 . 076 .046 .045 . 101 .053 .847 . 842 .045 . 126 .066 . 124 .046 .860 .068 . 131 .072 .869 .047 . 132 .049 .074 .876 .884 .050 . 137 .075 Profits after tax* 0.078 .072 .066 .055 .041 .046 .057 . 050 . 024 . 048 .062 .030 .049 .059 .055 . 059 .058 .062 ComOutput penper sation hour per of all hour employ- of all ees employ(1972 ees dollars) (dollars) 6.777 6. 873 7. 141 7.211 7.242 7.531 7.798 7.985 7. 743 7. 969 3.478 a 676 3.948 4.240 4.547 4.858 5. 158 5.583 6. 147 6.795 7.678 7.958 8. 123 8. 097 8. 187 8. 289 8. 341 6.624 6.745 6.843 6.962 7. 113 7.258 7.370 «With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates! Period National income Compensation of employ1 Propr] etors' meom Q with inventor y valuation anc capital consur nption adjust ments ees 1966 1 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 -.. 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 9 1975: I II... III.. IV 1976: I.. II III IV » Farm 622. 2 439.3 471.9 655.8 714.4 519. 8 571. 4 767. 9 609. 2 798.4 650. 3 858.1 715. 1 951.9 799. 2 1, 064. 6 875. 8 1, 135. 7 928. 8 1, 207. 6 1, 349. 4 1, 028. 4 904. 0 1, 149. 7 912. 9 1, 182. 7 935. 2 1, 233. 4 963. 1 1, 264. 6 1, 304. 7 994.4 1, 337. 4 1, 017. 2 1, 362. 5 1, 037. 5 1,064,5 13. 6 12. 1 12.0 13. 9 13. 9 14. 3 18. 0 32. 0 25. 8 24. 9 22.8 17. 9 24. 1 29. 2 28. 3 21.9 27. 5 21. 7 20. 3 Nonfarm 46. 7 48. 9 51.4 52. 3 51.2 53.4 58. 1 60.4 61. 1 65.3 73.8 63. 2 62. 7 66. 3 69. 0 71. 4 72.8 74.4 76.8 Corpor ate profits with inv<3ntory va uation and capital co nsumptioii adjustments T>oTjf ol income with capital consumption adjustment 18. 2 19.4 18.6 18. 1 18.6 20. 1 21. 5 21.6 21. 0 22. 4 23. 5 21. 9 22. 3 22.4 22. 9 23. 3 23. 1 23.4 24. 3 ^Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Profits with invcjntory valualJon adjusibment and \without C9 pital consum Dtion adjiistment Inventory valua- Total Total 82.5 79. 3 85. 8 81.4 67.9 77.2 92. 1 99. 1 84. 8 91. 6 118.7 69. 0 86.6 105. 3 105. 6 115. 1 116.4 122.0 78.6 75.6 82. 1 77.9 66.4 76. 9 89. 6 97.2 87. 8 103. 1 134.2 77. 7 97.9 117. 9 119. 1 129. 6 131.8 137.6 Profits before tax adjustment 80.7 77.3 85. 6 83. 4 71. 5 82. 0 96. 2 115. 8 127. 6 114. 5 148.8 94.2 105. 8 126.9 131. 3 141. 1 146. 2 150,2 -2. 1 -1.7 -3.4 -5. 5 -.5. i _5. o — 6. 6 -18.6 -39. 8 — 11. 4 -14.6 -16. 5 -7.8 -9.0 -12.3 -11. 5 — 14.4 -12. 6 -20.0 Capital consumption adjustment Net interest 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.5 1.5 .3 2.5 1.9 -3.0 -11.5 -15. 5 -8. 6 -11.4 — 12. 6 -13.5 - 14. 5 — 15. 4 -15. 7 -16.4 21. 9 24. 3 26.8 30.8 37.5 42. 8 47.0 52.3 67. 1 74, 6 82. 1 73.7 74. 0 74.9 75.8 78.6 80. 3 83.5 86.0 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] D urable goo ds Period 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975_ 1976 9 1975: I II !!!_„_ !¥„__ 1976: I II III ._. IV'.. 1 Total personal consumption expenditures 464. 8 490.4 535.9 579.7 618. 8 668. 2 733.0 809. 9 887. 5 973. 2 1, 078. 6 933. 2 960. 3 987. 3 1, 012. 0 1, 043. 6 1, 064. 7 1, 088. 5 1, 117. 5 Total durable1 goods Motor vehicles and parts 67.7 69. 6 80. 0 85. 5 84. 9 97. 1 111. 2 123. 7 121. 6 131. 7 156.3 122. 1 127.0 136.0 141. 8 151. 4 155. 0 157. 6 161.2 30. 1 29. 7 35. 8 37. 7 34.9 43.8 50. 6 55. 2 47. 9 53. 2 70.6 47.6 49. 5 56. 3 59.2 68.0 70, 4 71.7 72.4 Total includes other items not shown separately. i | Retail sales of new pa ssenger cars (Eaillions of u nits) Nondura ble goods Furniture and household equipment 27.7 29. 5 32. 6 35. 0 36. 7 39.4 44.8 50.7 54.7 57. 6 62. 9 54. 6 57. 0 58.2 60. 6 61.2 62. 3 62.9 65.1 Total nondurable1 goods 204. 7 212. 6 230. 7 247. 0 264. 7 277. 7 299. 3 333. 8 376. 2 409. 1 440. 3 394, 4 405. 8 414. 6 421. 6 429. 1 434. 8 441.8 455.5 Food 106. 6 109. 6 118. 3 126. 1 136. 3 140. 6 150. 4 168. 1 189. 9 209. 5 224. 5 203. 2 207. 8 211. 8 215. 2 219. 2 223. 1 225. 2 230.4 Clothing Gasoline and and oil shoes 36.6 38.2 41.8 45. 1 46. 6 50. 5 55. 1 61. 3 65. 1 70. 0 75.3 66. 6 69. 3 71. 3 73.0 73.5 73. 2 75.9 78. 5 16. 0 17.0 18.4 20. 4 22. 0 23. 4 24. 9 27. 8 36. 3 38. 9 41.4 37. 9 38.6 39.2 39.9 40. 1 40. 3 41. 6 43.6 Services Domestics 192.4 208. 1 225. 6 247. 2 269. 1 293. 4 322.4 352. 3 389.6 432. 4 482. 0 416. 7 427. 4 436. 7 448.6 463. 2 474.9 489. 1 500.8 8. 4 7.6 8. 6 8. 5 7. 1 8.7 9.3 9.7 7.5 7. 1 8.6 6. 7 6. 3 7. 6 7.7 8. 9 8. 7 8. 6 8.3 Fource: Department of Comirerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Imports 0. 7 .8 1.0 1. 1 1. 3 1. 6 1.8 1.6 1. 4 1. 6 1. 5 1. 7 1. 6 1. 7 1.4 1. 3 1. 5 1. 6 1. 6 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income increased $19.3 billion in December, compared to a revised increase of $17.2 billion in November. Wages and salaries were up $8.8 billion/ fhe increase in November was $10.2 billion. Dividends rose $3.9 billion, reflecting year-end extra dividends. Farm proprietors' income increased $3.1 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALQ 1,400 1,200 1,400 1,200 TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME \ 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 400 400 OTHER INCOME 200 200 TRANSFER PAYMENTS 100 100 80 80 I|i|i)iit III 40 40 I I.! I I I I I LLJLjJ I I I i I I 1 1 1 ! 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976* 1975: 1976: Dec____ Jan Peb_._Mar Apr May June July... Aug Sept Oct Nov____ Dec * COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted 3 Wage Rental Other Proprieto rs' income income Total and Divilabor 12 personal salary of 4 dends income disburseincome Farm Nonfarm persons ments 1 Less: Per- NonPersonal Transfer sonal con- farm interest paytributions 6 income ments5 for social personal insurance Income 745.8 801.3 859. 1 942. 5 1, 052. 4 1, 153. 3 1, 249. 7 1, 375. 4 514.6 546. 5 579. 4 633. 8 701.3 765. 0 806. 7 890.4 28.2 32.0 36.2 42. 0 48. 7 55. 5 62. 5 70. 1 13.9 13. 9 14.3 18.0 32. 0 25. 8 24.9 22.8 52. 3 51. 2 53.4 58. 1 60.4 61. 1 65.3 73. 8 18. 1 18.6 20. 1 21. 5 21. 6 21. 0 22. 4 23.5 22. 6 22.9 23. 0 24. 6 27. 8 30. 8 32. 1 35. 1 55. 9 64. 3 69. 3 74.6 84. 1 101.4 110. 7 123. 1 1, 308. 2 1, 320. 8 1, 331. 4 1, 341. 9 1, 352. 5 1, 362. 9 1, 370. 4 1, 380. 8 1, 385. 5 1, 391. 7 1, 404. 2 1,421.4 1, 440. 7 844. 0 854. 2 861. 4 868. 8 876.9 883.3 883. 1 892. 7 897.4 903.5 911. 3 921. 5 930. 3 65. 8 27. 3 24. 6 21. 1 20. 0 23. 3 27. 5 31.6 26.0 21.0 18. 1 18.6 19.6 22. 7 69. 9 22. 9 23.2 23.4 23. 3 23. 3 23. 4 22. 7 23.4 23. 2 23. 6 24. 0 24. 3 24. 7 30.8 32. 9 33. 3 33. 0 33. 4 33.9 35. 9 35. 2 35.4 35.6 36. 1 36. 5 40. 5 66. 4 67. 1 67. 7 68. 4 69. 0 69. 7 70.4 71. 1 71. 7 72. 4 73. 2 74. 1 70. 6 71. 3 72. 2 72. 7 72.5 73.4 73.8 74.4 749 75.4 76.8 78.0 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs rom compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contribuions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. 2 Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare *unds; workmen's compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items. s With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. *With capital consumption adjustment. annual rates] 66. 5 79.9 94. 1 104,1 118. 9 140. 3 175. 2 191.3 26. 3 28.0 30.8 34.2 42. 2 47. 6 50.0 54. 9 725.8 780. 7 838.0 917.3 1, Oil. 9 1, 117. 3 1, 213. 4 1, 340. 1 115. 5 183.4 116. 7 117. 9 119. 3 120. 0 120.7 121. 5 123.0 125.2 126.9 127. 8 128. 7 129. 6 185. 3 189.2 191. 3 188.7 187. 1 186.8 191.3 192. 9 192.9 194. 4 197.3 198. 1 51. 4 53. 1 53.4 53.7 54. 1 54.4 54. 3 54.9 55.2 55.5 55. 9 56.7 57.3 1, 269. 1 1, 284. 4 1, 298. 6 1, 310. 1 1, 317. 3 1, 323. 3 1, 326. 6 1, 342. 5 1, 351. 8 1, 360. 8 1, 372. 7 1, 388. 6 1, 404. 6 6 Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. 6 Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable income increased slightly in the fourth quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (fcATIOSCALQ BHUONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALQ —PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME - 3,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 1968 1976 1969 *SIASONAU.Y ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE, DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE Period Less: Personal Pertax sonal and income nontax payments COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS Equals : Disposable personal income Less: Personal outlays1 Per cjapita dispc>sable persona. i. income Equals : Personal saving Current dollars Billions of d ollars 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976" 685.2 745.8 801.3 859. 1 _ 942. 5 1, 052. 4 1, 153. 3 1, 249. 7 1, 375. 4 1, 023. 8 1, 088. 2 1, 091. 5 1, 119. 9 1, 147. 6 1, 172. 5 1, 190. 2 1, 216. 9 1972 dollars Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population (thou-a sands) Dollars 2,670 2,860 3,020 3,227 3,510 3,849 4, 188 4,558 5,014 3,156 3,234 3,265 3,342 3, 510 3, 648 3,582 3,608 3,779 2.8 1.5 3.0 2.6 3.3 5.9 -2.3 1. 0 3.3 6.5 5.6 7.4 7.7 6.2 7.8 7.3 7.8 6.6 200, 706 202, 677 204, 878 207, 053 208, 846 210, 410 211, 901 213, 540 215, 118 Seas onally ad usted ann ual rates 956. 7 67. 2 4,809 3,889 983. 6 104. 5 5, 102 4, 078 5, 105 4, 009 1, Oil. 1 80. 5 1, 036. 2 83. 7 5,227 4,049 1, 068. 0 79. 5 5,347 4, 103 1, 089. 6 82. 9 5,455 4, 143 1, 114. 3 75.8 4, 142 5,526 1, 144. 0 72.9 5,639 4, 171 4, 383 4,503 4, 618 4, 724 4,863 4, 954 5,054 5,178 3, 544 3, 599 3,626 3,659 3, 731 3, 762 3,788 3,830 -3. 4 20. 9 -6.6 4. 1 5. 4 4.0 — .1 2.8 6. 6 9.6 7.4 7. 5 6. 9 7. 1 6.4 6.0 212, 897 213, 278 213, 805 214, 245 214, 599 214, 926 215, 355 215, 805 550. 1 595.3 635.4 685. 5 751. 9 831.3 910.7 996. 9 104. 0 38. 1 35. 1 50.6 57.3 49.4 70. 3 72.2 84.0 77.8 2,930 3, 111 3,348 3,588 3,837 4,285 4,639 5, 062 5,494 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). * Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1; quarterly data are lor middle of period, interpolated from monthly data. Current dollars Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income 3,464 3, 515 3,619 3,714 3,837 4, 062 3,968 4,007 4, 141 97. 1 588. 1 115.4 630. 4 115. 3 685. 9 742. 8 116. 3 141.2 801. 3 150.8 901. 7 170.4 982. 9 168.8 1, 080. 9 193.6 1, 181. 8 1, 1975: I_ 1, 203. 1 179. 3 !!_._ 1, 230. 3 142. 2 III- 1, 265. 5 174. 0 IV_. 1, 299. 7 179.8 1976: I 1, 331. 3 183. 8 II._. 1, 362. 0 189. 5 III__ 1, 386. 0 195. 8 rv» 1, 422. 1 205. 3 1972 dollars Per cap ita personal c(>nsumption exp enditures Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureai of the Census). FARM INCOME Farm income decreased sharply in the third quarter. Including inventory change the decrease was $4.8 billion and excluding inventory change $6.8 billion (both annual rates). BILUONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCAtQ WLLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALQ 120 120 100 100 80 80 REALIZED GROSS FARM INCOME 60 60 40 40 \ \ NiT FARM INCOME WCIUDING NET INVENTORY CHANGE \ I 20 ' 20 10 10 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1974 1973 1975 *SEASONAUY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCEi DEPARTMENT OF AGRICUITURE Period 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974. 1975 1976* 1976 COUNCR OF ICONOA/BC ADVISERS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Persona 1 income received [ncome received from f annin g by total farm po pulation Realiz<3d gross Net inc ome per Nettx3 farm farm incl uding net3 oper ators Casli receipts from inventorY change imarketings From From From ProducIncludExcludall farm nonfarm Total1 tion ex- ing net ing net Livesources sources sources penses inven- inven- Current 1967 4 stock Total Crops tory 2 dollars dollars tory and change change products Dollars Billioiis of dollars 26.9 13.9 4,372 12.9 4,766 56.3 48.2 14.2 42. 1 14.3 28.6 19.6 27.4 4,202 14.4 4,790 13.0 14.2 14.2 58.6 21. 0 50. 5 44.4 29.6 4,263 13.4 5,030 15.3 28. 7 60.6 13.2 14. 6 22. 3 47.4 52.9 30.6 34.4 6,504 16.8 17.6 5,288 70. 1 17.8 18.7 35.7 25.5 52.3 61. 2 48. 6 8,817 95. 5 29. 0 45.9 19. 5 41. 1 33. 3 11, 727 29. 9 87. 1 65.6 45. 1 9,371 6,206 23. 5 21. 5 100.2 41.4 51. 3 72. 4 27. 8 26. 5 92.6 5,482 45.5 9, 100 22. 8 22. 7 98.2 22. 7 25. 6 89.6 75.5 42.9 46.7 44.0 24. 0 20. 0 1975: I II III.... IV... _ 88. 4 99. 6 105. 2 99. 6 80. 0 91. 1 96.5 90.8 36.3 43.9 45. 0 46.4 43. 7 47.2 51. 5 44.4 73.4 76. 1 76.8 75.7 15. 0 23. 5 28. 4 23.9 18.5 24. 8 30. 0 29. 1 6, 590 8,830 10, 680 10, 360 4, 070 5,380 6,320 6,060 1976:1 II III__._ 101. 5 111. 1 103.3 92.4 101.8 93.8 46.6 49.6 47.2 45.8 52.2 46.6 79.0 82.5 81.5 22.5 28.6 21. 8 22.5 25. 6 20.8 8, 100 9,210 7,490 4,710 5,300 4,230 1 Cash receipts from marketings, Government payments, and nonmoney intone furnished by farms. 2 Inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year. 3 Based on Census of Agriculture definition of a farm. The number of farms is held constant within a year. 82-278°—77- 4 Income in current dollars divided by the index of prices paid by farmers for family living items on a 1967 base. Source: Department of Agriculture. CORPORATE PROFITS Pretax profits with and without inventory valuation adjustment each rose 30 percent from 1975 to 1976, according to preliminary estimates. After-tax profits were up 29 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 1968 1976 SOURCEi DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976* 1975: I . II III IV... 1976: I II III..... IV » [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally ory valuiition Profil bs (before tax) wit h invent adjustn aent 1 Dome stic industries N onfinanc ial Total * WholeManu- sale Total Finan3 faccial Total and turretail mg trade 8.5 67.4 41.6 8.0 78.6 75.9 37.9 75.6 72.6 9.0 63.6 8. 9 41.2 82.1 68.5 78.9 10.4 10. 1 74.2 62. 9 36. 8 77.9 10. 1 11.3 12.6 27. 1 66.4 62.6 50. 1 9.4 72.4 58.2 14. 1 32. 4 76.9 11. 7 84. 7 69. 3 15.4 40. 6 89.6 13.3 16.2 44. 1 97.2 90.4 74. 1 14.7 14. 1 62.6 12.4 76.7 36.9 87.8 12. 9 84. 1 97.0 103.1 46. 4 20. 9 134.2 126.8 14.3 112.5 66.3 72. 1 77.7 13.9 58. 2 29. 7 14.5 12. 5 91. 7 79. 2 97. 9 43.5 19,6 111. 4 12. 1 99.3 117. 9 57.0 24 4 12. 9 112.7 99.8 119. 1 55.3 25.0 121. 9 14. 0 107.9 129.6 29. 0 61. 2 131.8 125.0 66.4 13.8 111.2 26.6 130.5 137.6 14,4 116.0 67.2 28.8 1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 2 Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. 8 COUNCIt Of KONOM1C ADVISERS 3 adjusted annual rates] Profits after tax Profits before tax Tax liability Total Dividends 80.7 77. 3 85. 6 83.4 71. 5 82. 0 96.2 115. 8 127. 6 114. 5 148, 8 94. 2 105. 8 126. 9 131. 3 141. 1 146.2 150. 2 33. 7 32. 5 39.4 39. 7 34. 5 37.7 41. 5 48. 7 52. 4 49. 2 64. 7 40. 2 44.8 54 8 57.2 61. 4 63. 5 65. 1 47. 1 44. 9 46. 2 43. 8 37. 0 44. 3 54 6 67. 1 75. 2 65. 3 84 0 54 0 61. 0 72. 1 74 1 79.7 82.7 85. 1 19.4 20. 1 21. 9 22. 6 22. 9 23. 0 246 27.8 30. 8 32. 1 35. 1 31.7 31. 9 32, 6 32. 2 33. 1 34.4 35.4 37.7 Undistributed profits 27. 6 247 242 21. 2 14 1 21. 3 30. 0 39. 3 44 4 33.2 48.9 22. 3 29. 1 39.5 41.9 46.6 48. 3 49. 7 Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau ol Economic Analysis. Inventory valuation adjustment -2. 1 — 1,7 -3.4 -5.5 -5. 1 -5.0 -6.6 -18.6 — 39,8 -11.4 -146 -16.5 -7.8 -9.0 -12.3 -11. 5 -144 — 12.6 — 20.0 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT Business fixed investment rose at an annual rate of $2.5 billion in the fourth quarter compared to a rise of $5.1 billion in the third quarter. Residential outlays rose $6.7 billion, a larger increase than in the 3 preceding quarters of 1976. Inventory investment at $7.9 billion was down $7.2 billion from the third quarter level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* .(RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 120 300 -GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT- _ NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT 100 260 220 PRODUCERS' DURABLE EQUIPMENT 60 ^mmmt^ •> STRUCTURES 40 -rr» I I BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 80 40 -CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES -40 1975 1973 1972 ! 1972 1976 1976 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Noiiresidential fixed investingmt Gross private domestic investment Period 1966___ 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973_._ 1974 1975___ 1976* 1975: I II III IV 1976: I II III IV v- _ _ _ _ _ 124.5 120. 8 131. 5 146. 2 140. 8 160.0 188.3 220. 0 215. 0 183. 7 241. 2 172. 4 164.4 196. 7 201. 4 229. 6 239. 2 247.0 249. 0 Struc,tures Prod ncers' dur able equip ment "P7*/-\ Total Total 81.4 82. 1 89.3 98. 9 100. 5 104. 1 116. 8 136. 0 149. 2 147. 1 160.0 148. 0 145. 8 146. 1 148.7 153. 4 157. 9 163.0 165. 5 Resid ential fix ed inves tment Total Nonfarm Total Nonfarm 29.2 29. 5 31. 6 35.7 37.7 39. 3 42.5 49. 0 54. 1 52.0 55. 4 53. 1 51. 2 51. 8 52. 1 53.2 54. 9 56.0 57.5 28. 1 28. 2 30. 4 34. 3 36. 1 37. 8 41. 1 46. 9 51. 8 49. 8 53. 1 50. 9 48. 8 49 6 49. 9 51. 0 52. 5 53. 7 55. 1 52. 2 52. 6 57. 7 63. 3 62.8 64. 7 74.3 87. 0 95. 1 95. 1 104. 5 94. 9 94. 6 94. 3 96. 6 100. 2 103.0 107.0 108.0 47. 9 48. 0 53.4 58. 9 58. 1 59. 9 69. 1 80. 1 87. 2 86. 9 95. 6 86. 5 86. 2 86. 7 88. 0 91.3 94. 1 98. 0 98. 8 28. 7 28. 6 34. 5 37. 9 36. 6 49. 6 62. 0 66. 1 55. 1 51. 2 67. 8 46. 6 48. 6 52. 6 57. 0 61.3 65. 3 68.9 75.6 Nonfarm struc— tures 27. 4 27.2 33. 1 36.3 35.1 47.9 60. 3 64. 3 52.7 49. 0 65. 1 44. 9 46. 7 50.2 54.2 58.6 62.9 66.3 72.7 Farm ducers' durstrucable tures equipment 0.7 .7 .6 .7 .6 .7 .7 .6 1. 0 .8 1. 1 .5 .6 1. 0 1. 4 1. 2 .9 1. 0 1.2 0.7 .7 .8 .9 .9 1.0 1. 1 1. 2 1. 3 1. 3 1. 6 1. 2 1. 3 1. 4 1. 4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 Change in business inv entories Total Nonfarm 14. 3 10. 1 7. 7 9.4 3. 8 6. 4 9. 4 17.9 10. 7 -14. 6 13.5 -22. 2 -30.0 -2.0 -4.3 14.8 16.0 15. 1 7.9 14. 5 9. 4 7.6 9. 2 3. 7 5. 1 8. 8 14. 7 12. 2 -17. 6 13. 6 -25. 6 -31. 2 -4. 2 -9.5 12.7 17.3 15. 6 8.9 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Business plans to increase capital spending 11.3 percent in 1977, according to a survey conducted in late November and December. The rise in spending in 1976 reported last month was 7.5 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BftJJONS O*F DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT 40 40 20 20 1969 V . 1970 'SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW. SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Starts c f plant and equ ipment proje cts 3 Esipenditurejs for plan t and equipment N<snmanuf aeturing M£inufacturi ng Period Nondurable goods Total Durable goods 79.71 81.21 88.44 99.74 112.40 112. 78 121. 23 134. 95 31.95 29.99 31.35 38.01 46.01 47.95 52.98 59.58 15. 80 14. 15 15.64 19.25 22.62 21.84 23.60 26. 47 16. 15 15. 84 15. 72 18.76 23.39 26. 11 29.38 33. 11 47.76 51. 22 57.09 61.73 66.39 64,82 68.25 75. S7 1.89 a 16 2.42 2.74 3. 18 3.79 3.97 4*41 6.04 4.93 5.72 6.03 6.66 7.57 7.25 6.82 13. 14 15.30 17.00 18.71 20. 55 20. 14 22.44 25.60 10. 10 10.77 11. 89 12. 85 13. 96 12.74 13. 63 114. 72 1976: I118. 12 II III 122. 55 !¥*___„ 127. 87 129. 38 1977: I 44 II 131. 28 49.21 50.64 54.78 56.28 56.99 57.58 21. 63 22. 54 24.59 25.23 25.52 26.45 27.58 28.09 30.20 SI. 00 65.51 67.48 67.76 71.64 72.38 73. 70 a 83 6.55 8.24 7.25 6.83 6.34 21. 91 21.85 21. 67 24.05 24.57 12. 54 12. 62 13.64 Total* 1970., 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975..4 1976 1977 4 1 si. 47 31. 12 Total Excludes agricultural business; real estate operators; medical, legal, educational, and cultural service; and nonprofit organizations. These figures do not agree precisely with the nonresidential fixed investment data in gross national product estimates, mainly because those data include investment by farmers, professionals, nonprofit institutions, and real estate firms, and certain outlays charged to current account. »Includes trade, service, construction, finance, and insurance. 10 Trans- Public ComMining porta- utili- munition cation ties 3.83 4.21 4.03 4.22 Commercial and other 2 16.59 18.05 20.07 21.40 22.05 20.60 20.96 Manufacturing Public utilities 29. 18 28,00 35. 21 47. 57 52.49 48.24 17.20 22.22 28.60 38. 13 45. 74 3450 11.64 12.77 13.22 3. 43 8. 56 7. 54 38. 54 20. 68 20. 94 20.99 36. 73 87. 26 1 Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during given period. * Expenditures estimates based on expected capital expenditures as reported by business in October-December 1976. NOTE.—Annual total is the sum of unadjusted quarterly totals. Estimates (as noted in footnote 4) include adjustments when necessary for sys tematic biases in expectations data. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE The civilian labor force increased 89,000 in December, following the exceptionally large increase of 569,000 in November. Employment rose 221,000 in December and unemployment declined 132,000. MJIUONS OF PBSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 100 SEASONAUY ADJUSTED 90 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE \ EMPLOYMENT 80 80 70 70 10 So \ UNEMPLOYMENT i t i ii I n n 11 i t \! I I ; i 1969 1970 1971 i n t 11 > 1972 1974 1973 *16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER. SOURCEs DEPARTMENT OF IABOR Period 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1975: Dec 1976: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec C ivilian e tnploymerit Total labor Civilian Civilian Unem- force employ- ploy- (includ- labor ing force ment ment Armed Forces) 775 81, 702 4,840 88, 991 86, 542 263 84, 409 4,304 91, 040 88, 714 827 85, 936 5,076 93, 240 91, Oil 449 84, 783 7,830 94, 793 92, 613 048 87, 485 7,288 96, 917 94, 773 U nadjusted 154, 700 85, 536 7,195 154, 915 155, 106 155, 325 155, 516 155, 711 155, 925 156, 142 156, 367 156, 595 156, 788 156, 006 157, 176 84, 491 84, 764 85, 588 86, 584 87, 278 88, 460 89, 608 89, 367 87, 949 88, 697 88,542 88, 494 8, 174 8,033 7,525 6,890 6,304 7,655 7,577 7,323 7,026 6,833 7,095 7,022 1 Persons 2 Unempl oyment Nonagricultural Total Agricultural Part-time T^fal for eco- 3,472 78, 230 2,408 3,452 80, 957 2,311 3,492 82, 443 2,709 3,380 81, 403 3,490 3,272 3,297 84, 188 Seascmally adj usted 93, 148 85, 443 3,255 82, 188 95, 613 95, 743 96, 009 96, 520 96, 693 96, 841 97, 329 97, 498 97, 387 97, 449 98, 020 98, 106 93, 473 93, 597 93, 862 94, 376 94, 551 94, 704 95, 189 95, 351 95, 242 95, 302 95, 871 95, 960 86, 226 &86, 471 86, 845 87, 329 87, 640 87, 533 87, 783 87, 834 87, 794 87, 738 88, 220 88, 441 3,305 3,198 3,215 3,398 3,332 3, 313 3,333 3,372 3,278 3,310 3,248 3,257 82, 921 83, 273 83, 630 83, 931 84, 308 84, 220 84, 450 84, 462 84, 516 84, 428 84,972 85, 184 Total 15 weeks and over nomic reasons1 81, 702 84, 409 85, 936 84, 783 87, 485 95, 305 at work in nonagricultural industries. Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over. 1977 COUNCfc OF KONOWC ABVKStS Noninstitu"taonal population 145, 148, 150, 153, 156, i i t i t ! 1111 i 1976 1975 4,840 4,304 5,076 7,830 7,288 Labor force participation rate (per- cent)2 1,158 812 937 2,483 2,340 61.0 61.4 61.8 61.8 62. 1 3,290 7,705 2,981 61.6 3,336 7,247 2,781 2,531 7,047 2, 103 61. 7 61.7 61.8 62. 1 62.1 62. 1 62.3 62.4 62,2 62,2 62.4 62.4 3,201 3, 173 3, 194 3,287 3, 150 3, 136 3,178 3,376 3,448 3,545 3,454 7,126 7,017 2,325 6,911 2,042 7, 171 2,173 7,406 2,247 7,517 2, 341 2,311 7,651 7,519 2,517 2,514 7,448 7,564 2,360 Note,—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1972. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped 0.2 percentage point to 7.8 percent in December after rising to 8.0 percent in November. Unemployment rates for most demographic groups were lower in December than in November. PERCENT* {SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) •PERCENT* ^SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 20 15 BLACK AND / 10 0 nil 11! y|f i iji j Mn-_ rii U...1.1 |..i 1 1 _ i i 11.11 M.|i i t i_ i h• v 111 _i [ \ \ j j M 11_ 1973 1976 *UNEMPtOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1977 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] UneEciployme nt rate (]percent c f civiliarL labor fc>rce in gi oup) Total (all civilian workers) Period 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1975: Dec 1976: Jan Feb Mar_ Apr... _ May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 5.6 4.9 5.6 8.5 7.7 as _ _„ 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.6 7.8 7.9 7. 8 7. 9 8. 0 7.8 Men Women Both 20 20 sexes years years 16-19 and and years over over 4,0 3.2 3.8 6.7 5.9 6.5 5.9 5. 8 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.9 6. 1 5. 9 6. 1 6.2 6.3 6.2 5.4 4.8 5. 5 8. 0 7.4 7.9 7. 5 7.4 7.2 7.3 6.8 7.2 7.6 7. 8 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.4 1 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for < nomic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. 12 I3y select ed group)S By color By glex and ai.ge 16.2 14. 5 16. 0 19. 9 19.0 19.8 19.4 19. 1 19. 0 19. 3 18.5 18.4 18.2 19. 6 18. 8 19. 0 19.2 19.0 White 5.0 4. 3 5.0 7.8 7.0 7.6 7. 1 6.8 6.8 6.8 6. 7 6. 8 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.3 7. 1 ExpeFullBlack rienced time wage Houseand hold and other salary heads workers workers 10. 0 8.9 9.9 13. 9 13.1 13.6 13.2 13.6 12. 6 13. 0 12. 3 13.4 12. 9 13.6 12. 8 13.4 13.5 13.4 5. 3 4.5 5.3 8.2 7.3 8.0 7.5 7. 3 7. 1 7. 1 7. 1 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.4 3.3 2.9 3.3 5.8 5.1 5.6 5.2 5. 0 5.0 4.8 4.9 5. 1 5.3 5.2 5. 5 5.4 5. 3 5. 1 5.1 4.3 5. 1 8. 1 7.3 7.9 7.3 7. 1 7.0 7.0 6.9 7.2 7.3 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.5 Note.—Seasonally adjusted data revised beginning 1972. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Parttime workers ae 7.9 8.6 10.3 10. 1 10.6 10.3 10. 3 10.2 10.6 10. 1 9.2 10.6 10. 0 Labor force time lost (per-1 cent) 6.0 5.2 6. 1 9. 1 8.3 as 8.4 8. 1 8. 1 8.1 8. 1 7.9 8. 1 9.6 8.4 8.4 8.6 9.8 8.4 10. 3 10.5 8. 6 SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS The seasonally adjusted decline in unemployment of 1 32,000 in December was accompanied by a decrease in the proportion of unemployed who are reentrants to the labor force and an increase among new entrants. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT 60 JOB LOSERS 40 REENTRANTS 20 JOB LEAVERS \ NEW ENTRANTS ! 1 I f !I 1974 t i r!i i 11 1975 i I f f 1 I| f f i i i!t 1 1 1 f 1976 1974 1977 1976 I 1977 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF UBOR Period Unemployment (thousands) 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976* 1975: Dec__ 1976: Jan _ _ Feb.. Mar.. Apr__ May_ June _ July__ Aug__ Sept__ Oct___ Nov*». Dec*>_ 4,840 4,304 5, 076 7, 830 7,288 7, 705 7,247 7, 126 7, 017 7,047 6,911 7, 171 7,406 7, 517 7,448 7,564 7, 651 7, 519 [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Percer it distrib ution of unemPereenit distribution of unemState pirograms Insured ployment by duraticDn 1 pioyment by reasoii 1 unem- Special ployunemment, ployall ment 27 Insured New Less 5-14 15-26 weeks unem- Initial regular benefits ReenJob Job than 5 enproclaims and ploy- claims losers leavers trants trants weeks weeks weeks grams 2 (unadover ment (unad- justed) justed) Weejkly aver age, thou sands 43.2 12.3 45.9 11.6 1,848 261 2,192 13. 1 29.8 13.9 30.1 7.8 1, 632 14.9 51.0 11. 0 15.7 30.7 38.7 30. 1 246 1,793 7.3 2,262 11. 1 43.4 28.4 14.9 13. 3 50.6 363 31.0 2,558 15.2 3,992 10.4 55.4 37.0 16.5 31. 3 478 4,943 23. 8 10. 4 1, 173 18.3 2,968 12. 1 38.3 382 12. 2 13.8 3,822 29. 6 1,152 49. 7 26. 0 33.8 362 11.2 17.2 28. 1 25. 6 51. 9 4,461 11. 2 20.8 3,242 1,411 371 4,962 1,482 11. 9 35. 2 27. 6 15. 6 26. 6 21. 6 2,961 49. 8 11. 6 37.4 343 4,721 12. 0 13. 7 12. 0 26. 8 22. 1 2,859 1,428 26. 4 49. 5 38.3 12.7 49.8 350 1,339 12. 3 27. 9 21. 2 2,759 4, 366 26. 7 11. 1 42. 7 27. 2 10. 2 361 1,125 12. 0 12. 6 3,917 26. 2 49. 2 19. 8 2,717 12.5 398 3,564 12. 2 993 12. 7 29. 0 25. 2 41. 0 17.5 2, 862 49. 9 38.4 12.7 397 25.5 11.7 1,145 50.3 3,458 12. 6 31. 1 17. 9 2,947 403 28.8 14.6 3, 642 1,379 40. 3 25. 4 10. 7 13. 0 16. 4 3,086 50. 9 14.7 417 12.9 12. 4 1, 327 37. 5 3,446 25. 3 15. 9 3,203 31. 8 49. 3 14.7 427 32. 0 986 12. 3 49.7 37. 6 3,236 12. 5 25. 5 15. 7 3,261 38.4 30.8 14, 2 853 437 3,217 12. 5 16. 5 3, 328 25. 6 11.9 50, 0 862 32. 1 385 35.5 3,453 12. 0 15. 3 11.2 17. 1 3, 165 27. 0 49. 8 14. 9 356 903 3,883 12. 6 36. 4 30. 5 18. 2 2, 932 26. 2 11. 1 50. 0 1 Detail may not add to 130 percent I>ecause of r ounding. 2 Includes State (50 States , District o Columbia , and Puerto Rico), ex -servicemen (UCX), F ederal (IK3FE), and railroad ('.RR) prognims. Also includes Federal and Sta ;e extended[ benefit programs, DCjes not include FSB ( Federal supplemental be nefits) and SUA (spec lal unernpl jyment ass stance) . s FSB and SITA, These t>rograms st arted Janu ary 1975 an d regular resporting began March 197 5. Note.— £ easonally a djusted da ta (except State progi"ams) revise d beginning 1972. Source: Departmen t of Labor (Bureau of Labor Sta tistics and I mployment and Train ng Admin stration). 13 J.W NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 257,000 in December, bringing the over-the-year increase to 2.2 million, the largest December gains were in trade (100,000), services (53,000), and durable goods manufacturing (47,000). MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 90! 18 ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 80 WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE 16 GOVERNMENT 70 14 „,*«••'''<"""*' SERVICES 12 -SERVICE-PRODUCING " INDUSTRIES 22 MANUFACTURING 50 20 40 ^.-.•^'T'——-»•/ 18 l i t M i I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I 1I I I I I I I I M I I I I I I I I I •30 J I i 1 1 1 I t I I II -GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION 20 t I ill III I ' M i l I 1M 1 I I 1973 1974 I IM I I I I M I I M I I I I I I I I' 1975 1976 1977 1973 1974 1975 'SEASONALLY AWUSTID SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1976 1977 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers;1 seasonally adjusted] Period Service-pr oducing Industrie>s Groods-prc>ducing industriesi Total Gover nment Trans- Whole- Finance, Ma nufactur ing nonagriConporta- sale insurcultural tract tion ance, Services employ- Total * conand Non- Total State and and struc- Total Durable durable retail ment Federal and real public trade goods goods tion local utilities estate 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976" 1975:Dec___ 1976: Jan... Feb Mar.. Apr___ May.. June.. July... Aug_« Sept.. Oct Nov. Dec*.. 73, 714 76, 896 78, 413 76, 985 79, 115 77, 764 78, 142 78, 358 78, 692 79, Oil 79, 006 79, 043 79, 183 79, 278 79, 572 79, 467 79, 700 79, 957 23, 546 24, 727 24, 697 22, 549 23, 107 22, 713 22, 880 22, 920 23, 050 23, 196 23, 169 23, 140 23, 118 23, 080 23, 228 23, 081 23, 218 23, 248 3,831 4,015 3,957 3,457 3,370 3,392 3,409 3,379 3,380 3,413 3,393 3,375 3,382 3,349 3,330 3, 340 3, 353 3,349 19, 090 20, 068 20, 046 18, 347 18, 954 18, 555 18, 704 18, 774 18, 897 19, 008 19, 000 18, 984 18, 945 18, 979 19, 100 18, 941 19, 057 19, 093 11, 006 11, 839 11, 895 10, 679 11, 028 10, 709 10, 810 10, 857 10, 956 11, 016 11, 062 11,069 11, 034 11, 083 11, 146 11, 018 11, 134 11, 181 8,084 8,229 8, 151 7,668 7,926 7,846 7,894 7,917 7,941 7,992 7,938 7,925 7,911 7,896 7,954 7,923 7,923 7,912 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period j which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from ttiis table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed 14 50, 167 52, 169 53, 715 54, 436 56, 008 55, 051 55, 262 55, 438 55, 642 55, 815 55, 837 55, 903 56, 065 56, 198 56, 344 56, 386 56, 482 56, 709 4,517 4,644 4,696 4,498 4,507 4,477 4,489 4,504 4,507 4,510 4,503 4,482 4,508 4,501 4,528 4,506 4, 510 4,537 15, 975 16, 674 17, 017 16, 947 17, 490 17, 084 17, 207 17, 308 17, 399 17, 465 17, 461 17, 460 17, 531 17, 554 17, 625 17, 610 17, 585 17, 685 3,943 4,091 4,208 4,223 4,316 4,260 4,266 4,266 4,276 4,289 4,282 4,301 4,312 4,312 4,338 4,359 4,381 4,403 12, 392 2,684 13, 021 2,663 13, 617 2,724 13, 995 2,748 14, 607 2,736 14, 229 2,753 14, 307 2,749 14, 360 2,742 14, 422 2,735 14, 498 2, 733 14, 529 2,730 14, 571 2,728 14, 623 2,723 14, 709 2,732 14, 758 2,728 14, 781 2, 730 14, 844 2,734 14, 897 2,736 10, 656 11, 075 11, 453 12, 025 12, 352 12, 248 12, 244 12, 258 12, 303 12, 320 12, 332 12, 361 12, 368 12, 390 12, 367 12, 400 12, 428 12, 451 persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. 3 Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Average gross hourly €earnings Aver age weekly ] aours Total private nonagricultural l Period Overtime Total private nonagricultural 1 Manufacturing Manufa icturing Total Adjusted h ourly earnin gs index2 —tc>tal private nonagricultural Percent ch ange from a year <sarlier 4 Index, 1<)67=100 Current dollars Current dollars 1967 dollars 3 1967 dollars 37.8 37.7 37. 1 37.0 37. 1 37. 1 36. 6 36. 1 36. 2 40. 7 40. 6 39. 8 39. 9 40. 6 40. 7 40.0 39.4 40. 1 3. 6 3.6 3. 0 2. 9 3. 5 3. 8 3. 2 2.6 3.1 $2. 85 3. 04 3. 22 3.44 3. 67 3. 92 4. 22 4. 54 4.86 $3. 01 3. 19 3. 36 3. 57 3. 81 4. 08 4.41 4. 81 5. 19 106. 3 113. 3 120.8 129. 4 137.8 146.6 158.6 172.7 185.2 102.0 103. 2 103. 9 106. 7 110.0 110. 1 107.4 107. 1 108.6 6. 3 6.6 6. 6 7. 1 6.5 6. 4 8.2 8.9 7.2 2.0 1.2 .7 2.7 3. 1 .1 -2. 5 —.3 1.4 1975: Dec 36.4 40. 3 3. 0 4.68 4. 96 178.0 107.0 7.9 .8 1976: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov v Dec* 36.4 36.4 36. 2 36. 1 36. 3 36.2 36.2 36. 1 36. 0 36. 1 36. 2 36. 3 40.4 40.3 40. 3 39.4 40. 3 40. 2 40. 1 40.0 39. 7 39.9 40. 1 40. 1 3. 1 3. 1 3. 1 2.6 3.3 3.2 3. 1 3. 0 3.0 2.9 3. 1 3.2 4. 72 4.74 4.77 4.79 4.83 4. 85 4.88 4.90 4. 92 4. 95 4. 99 5. 01 5. 00 5.04 5. 08 5. 08 5. 13 5. 16 5.21 5. 25 5. 29 5. 29 5. 34 5.37 179.4 180.3 181. 1 182. 1 183. 3 184.0 185.2 186.4 187. 2 188. 2 189. 2 190. 0 107.3 107.8 108.0 108.2 108. 3 108. 1 108.4 108.5 108.5 108.7 109. 0 109. 0 8.0 7.7 7.2 7.6 7.7 7. 1 7.3 7.0 7. 1 6.8 6. 5 6.7 1. 2 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.4 1. 1 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.5 1. 6 1.9 1968 1969 1970 1971_ 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 » _ AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS—PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAII INDUSTRIES [For production of nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average gross weekly earnings Total pri vate nonagricul tural 1 Period Current dollars $107. 114. 119. 127. 136. 145. 154. 163. 175. 1967 dollars 3 73 61 46 28 16 43 45 89 93 $103. 39 104. 38 102. 72 104. 93 108. 67 109. 26 104. 57 101. 67 103. 18 1975: Dec 170. 35 1976: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July__ Aug Sept Oct Nov ^ Dec v 171. 172. 172. 172. 175. 175. 176. 176. 177. 178. 180. 181. 1968 1969__ 1970 1971__ 1972__ 1973 1974 _ 1975 1976" — 81 54 67 92 33 57 66 89 12 70 64 86 Manufacturing 3 Retail trade 5 Current dollars (Current dollars5 $122. 129. 133. 142. 154. 166. 176. 189. 208. 1967 dollars 51 51 73 44 69 06 40 51 12 $164. 49 181. 54 195. 45 211. 67 222. 51 235. 69 249. 08 265. 35 284. 56 $74. 95 78. 66 82. 47 86. 61 90. 99 95. 57 101. 04 108. 22 5.8 6.4 4.2 6.5 7.0 6.8 1. 5 1. 0 -1.6 2. 2 .5 -4. 3 — 2. 8 11431 6. 2 6. 1 7.3 1.5 102. 37 199. 89 277. 14 111. 13 7. 1 .1 102. 82 103. 13 103. 03 102. 74 103. 56 103. 22 103. 37 102. 96 102. 68 103. 24 104. 06 104. 34 202. 00 203. 11 204. 72 200. 15 206. 74 207. 43 208. 92 210. 00 210. 01 211. 07 214. 13 215. 34 281. 281. 272. 283. 284. 286. 286. 284. 276. 289. 292. 292. 112.45 112. 08 112. 06 113. 43 113. 02 112. 64 113. 96 114. 24 115. 56 116. 16 117. 12 118. 17 8.2 8.1 7.9 1. 7 1. 6 *J Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing, s Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index. * Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places. 82-278 °—77- Contract construction Percent chtmge from a year e arlier, total prii/ate nonagriciiltural 6 25 62 52 12 19 46 71 83 79 45 09 81 7. 5 8.5 7.6 7.9 7. 0 6. 6 6. 9 6.5 6.8 3.6 1.3 1.4 2. 1 1.6 2.3 1. 3 1.0 1. 5 1. 5 1.8 6 6 Includes eating and drinking places. Based on unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, PRIVATE BUSINESS ECONOMY Hours of all pers ons2 Out! Hit1 Private Total Total nonprivate private farm business business business Period Private nonfarm business Output ]per hour of all F>ersons Total private business Private non- Unit labor Compe nsation per ] lour 3 Total Private pri- non- CO sts Implic t price defla tor* Total Private pri- Total non- pri- Private non- vate vate farm vate farm farm farm business business business business business business business 1967 = 100; quairterly dat a, seasonsilly adjuslbed 92.9 98.0 100. 0 105.1 108.3 92.6 98.1 100. 0 105.4 108.6 100. 3 100. 0 101.7 104.5 9a i 96. 8 100.0 100. 0 102. 1 105. 3 94.7 97.8 100. 0 103.3 103.7 95.7 98. 1 100.0 103.2 103. 1 88.4 94.7 100.0 107.6 115. 1 89.1 94.5 100. 0 107.3 114.2 93.4 96.8 100. 0 104,1 111.0 93.2 96.4 100. 0 103.9 110.9 942 97.2 100.0 103.9 108.8 94 1 96.8 100.0 1040 108.7 107.4 110.3 117.6 124. 5 120. 8 107.4 110.3 117.9 125.0 121. 1 102. 8 102. 3 106.0 110. 1 110.6 104. 0 103.7 107. 6 112. 2 112. 7 1045 107.8 110.9 113. 1 109. 2 103.2 106.3 109.5 111.4 107.5 123. 3 131. 5 138. 9 150.3 164.3 121.9 129.9 137.4 148. 1 162.0 na i 121.9 125. 2 132. 9 150.4 118. 1 122.2 125. 5 133.0 150.8 113.9 118.9 123.2 130.3 143. 8 1140 119.2 122. 9 128.0 142.0 1975 118.1 118.0 105. 9 107.9 111.5 109.4 180. 2 177.7 161. 6 162.4 157. 5 156.4 1974: III IV 120. 6 117.7 121. 0 117.9 110. 9 109. 3 113.3 111. 5 108.7 107.6 106.7 105.7 166.7 170.7 164. 0 168. 3 153. 3 158. 6 153.6 159.3 146.0 150.4 1446 149.2 1975: I II III IV 114. 2 116. 7 120. 1 121.2 114.4 116.6 119. 9 121. 3 105.7 104.8 105.7 107.0 107.9 106.7 107.4 109.2 108. 1 111.4 113.6 113.2 106. 0 109. 2 111. 6 111.0 176. 0 179. 0 181. 3 185.0 173. 1 176. 4 179. 3 182.2 162. 9 160.7 159.5 163.4 163. 3 161. 6 160.6 164 1 154 5 155. 9 158.4 160.9 154 0 155.0 157.0 159. 3 1976: I II III 124. 2 125. 8 12a 9 124. 3 126.0 127. 1 107. 7 108.2 108. 2 110.4 110.4 110. 6 115. 3 116.3 117. 2 112. 6 114. 1 114. 9 189. 8 193. 3 196. 7 186. 4 190.4 193. 6 164. 7 166. 1 167. 8 165.5 166.9 168. 5 161.7 163. 8 165.4 161.0 162.5 164 8 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 --_ Perceiit change • quarterlyT data at seasonall y adjuste< i annual rates 1965 1966 1967 7. 1 3.1 2.3 -.3 1.7 2.7 3.7 3.3 .0 2.1 3.2 3.7 3.2 2.3 3.3 .3 3.3 2.5 1.9 3.2 -.2 3.9 7.0 5.6 7.6 7.0 — 1. 2 —.3 3.7 4,3 .4 .7 .2 7.2 6.6 1969 7.0 5.5 2.0 5. 1 3.0 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 — .9 2. 8 6.6 5.9 -3. 0 2.7 6.9 6.0 -3. 1 -1.6 —.4 3.6 3. 9 .4 1975 -2.3 -2.6 -4,2 1974: III IV -3.9 -9.4 -3.8 — 9. 9 1975: I II III IV -11. 2 &9 12. 3 3. 6 -11. 3 10.2 5.5 10.5 1968_.__ 1976: I II III... 1 J a4 6.0 1.9 5.4 3.0 -1. 1 7.9 12. 1 4.5 5.4 3.4 a2 0.2 3.7 3.3 41 6. 6 0. 1 3.4 3.8 3.9 6.6 1.6 3.2 2.9 3.9 47 1.3 2.9 3.3 40 45 5.8 7.8 9. 4 6.4 3.2 2.7 6.2 13. 2 6. 5 3.5 2.7 6.0 13.4 47 44 3.6 5. 8 10. 3 49 4.5 3. 1 41 11.0 5.8 7.3 6. 5 6.7 2.9 1.9 -3.4 2.9 3.0 1.7 5. 7 -3.5 8.2 9.3 -4.3 2.1 1.8 9.7 9.7 7.5 7. 7 9.5 10. 1 -1.4 — 5. 7 —.6 -6. 2 -2. 6 -4. 0 -3.2 -3. 9 12. 6 9.9 11. 5 10.9 15. 5 14.5 15. 2 15.5 13. 2 12. 9 13.4 13. 5 -12.7 — 3. 3 3.5 5.2 -12.4 -4.1 2.5 6. 9 1. 6 12.7 8.5 -1.5 1. 3 12. 6 13. 1 11.8 7. 9 6. 6 6.8 11.3 -5. 1 -3. 0 10.0 10.4 -4.2 -2. 2 9.0 11. 3 3.5 6.6 6. 6 13.5 2. 6 5. 3 6.2 2.6 1.6 .2 4.4 .1 .5 7.4 3.8 9.5 8.9 6.9 3.2 3.6 41 3.5 3.3 3.9 2. 1 5.2 43 3. 6 5.8 ai Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars. Bours of all persons in private industry engaged in production, including hours oi proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily onz establishment data. Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed. 16 3.4 6. 1 6.9 -2.2 5. 2 8. 3 5. 8 10.9 9.3 5.4 2.9 7.5 7.3 6. 6 a9 < Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. NOTE.—Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production increased 0.7 percent in December, following a rise of 1.2 percent in November. About onethird of the December increase was attributed to higher motor vehicle production. There were also widespread increases among final products and materials. During 1976, industrial production rose 6.8 percent, most of which occurred in the first half of the year. INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE) 180 UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 160 140 UTILITIES 120 .,--**• *vv^ 100 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION 11I I Inil 1972 MINING l_Li 1973 1974 1975 1976 PERCENT (RATIO SCALE) __ MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE 120 70 100 60 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1972 1975 1973 1976 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCEi BOARD (X GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAl RESERVE SYSTEM Total iridustrial prodiiction COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Seasonally adjusted] Indus try produ ction ind exes, 196 7=100 M mufacturi ng PerPeriod Index, 1967= 100 100. 00 1971 109. 6 1972 119. 7 1973 129. 8 1974 129. 3 117.8 1975 1976" 129. 8 124.4 1975: Dec 125.7 1976: Jan 127.3 Feb 128. 1 Mar 128.4 Apr 129.6 May 130. 1 June_ _ 130. 7 July 131. 3 Aug _ 130.8 Sept 130. 4 Oct. v _ Nov 131. 9 Dec v _ _.. 132. 8 cent change from year earlier 1. 7 9.2 8.4 —.4 -8. 9 10. 2 4.3 9. 1 13. 0 14. 7 14.0 14.0 11.8 10.4 8. 5 7. 1 6.7 6. 8 6.8 Durable Nondur- Utilities able 108.2 118. 9 129. 8 129. 4 116.3 129. 7 123.6 125.2 127. 0 127. 9 128.5 129.6 130.2 131. 0 131. 6 130. 7 130. 0 131. 8 132.6 51. 98 102. 4 113. 7 127. 1 125.7 109.3 121. 5 114. 4 115.8 117. 9 119. 0 120. 1 121.7 122. 3 124.2 125. 1 122.4 121.4 123. 8 124. 7 35.97 116.6 126. 5 133. 8 134.6 126. 4 141. 4 136. 9 138.4 140. 2 140. 7 140. 7 140. 9 141. 3 141. 1 140.9 142. 6 142. 3 143.4 144. 2 as percent of capacity. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Annual data are averages of quarterly data. 3 Quarterly data are for last month in quarter. Annual data are averages of four monthly indexes. Mining ing 87.95 1967 proportion 1 3 Output Total Manuf acturing capacity iitilization rate, p ercent l Federal Reserve 2 sern>s ComWharTotal merce ton Mate3 manuseries series 2 rials factur- 6. S6 109. 8 113. 1 114. 7 115. 3 112. 8 114. 6 112. 9 113. 6 112. 7 113. 9 113. 5 113. 0 114.4 112.5 114. 4 115.7 117. 4 116. 8 116.8 5.69 130. 5 139. 4 145.4 143.7 146. 0 151. 7 147. 2 152. 0 152. 5 151. 4 150. 8 153. 0 151.2 150. P 151. 3 150. 1 150. 8 151.9 154.4 78.0 83. 1 87.5 84. 2 73. 6 80. 1 76.8 83. 1 88. 0 92. 4 87. 7 73. 6 80. 3 77. 1 80 83 86 83 77 86. 4 91. 8 97. 1 93.0 80. 4 79 84. 0 79.0 79.0 82 86. 4 80.2 80. 6 82 87.8 80.8 81. 3 80 88. 0 80. 5 80.4 Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), and Wharton School of Finance. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1967=100, seasonally adjusted] Prociucts Final products Equif >ment Coiisumer goods Period Total Total Internlediate proc ucts NonDurable durable goods goods Total Business ConTotal struction supplies Materials Supplementary group: Energy total 1967 proportion 47.82 •ST. 68 7.89 19. 79 20. 14 12.68 12.89 6. 42 39. 29 18.83 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1975: Dec 1976: Jan Feb Mar Apr : May___ June July Aug Sept 106. 2 109.6 105.3 106. 3 115. 7 124. 4 125. 1 118. 2 123.5 123.9 125.3 126.4 126. 3 127. 3 127. 6 127.6 128.3 127.4 127. 3 129. 5 131. 2 105.9 109.8 109.0 114.7 124.4 131. 5 128.9 124. 0 132.3 133. 1 134. 9 136. 1 136. 1 137. 4 137.8 136. 8 137. 5 136.2 136. 9 138.7 141. 1 111.1 115. 0 106. 1 118.8 133.8 146.2 135.3 121,4 134.0 134. 7 137. 9 140.4 141. 1 143. 2 144.2 141. 8 143. 7 138.4 138. 6 143.7 150. 1 103.9 107.7 110.1 113. 1 120. 6 125. 6 126.3 125. 1 131.5 132. 5 133. 9 134. 4 134.0 135. 1 135. 1 134 8 134. 9 135.3 136.3 136. 8 137.4 106.5 109.3 100.1 94. 7 103. 8 114.5 120.0 110.2 111. 5 111.2 112. 1 112. 9 112. 9 113.5 113.8 114. 9 115. 7 115.2 114.4 116.7 117. 7 105. 5 112.5 107. 0 104. 1 118. 0 134. 2 142.4 128. 2 131.6 131.0 132. 6 134.0 134. 1 134.6 135.0 136. 9 137. 7 137.5 136.0 139.5 140.9 106.3 112.9 112.9 116. 7 126. 5 137. 2 135.3 123.1 129.9 133.6 135. 3 134. 9 134. 7 135,0 135.9 137. 6 137.8 138.7 138.4 139.3 140.4 106. 6 112. 3 111. 0 116.8 128.4 139.8 134. 5 116. 3 124. 1 126. 8 129.6 128.7 128. 0 130. 9 131.8 133. 1 134. 1 134. 3 134. 1 135.5 137.4 106. 5 112.5 109.2 111.3 122.3 133. 9 132.4 115. 5 123.3 125,3 127.3 105.5 111. 1 117.0 119. 5 125.2 128. 3 125. 5 125.5 126.6 128.8 127.5 128. 6 128. 2 129.3 129.7 128.4 129. 0 128.6 128.8 129.8 131.4 — _ -. _ _ _ Oct Nov » Dec » 12S.2 129. 2 130. 6 131. 1 132. 2 133. 0 132.5 131.6 132. 3 132. 3 [1967=100, seasonally adjusted] Diirable m anufactu res Primar]r metals Period 1 967 proportion 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1975: Dec 1976: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug__ _ _ _ _ Sept _„_ Oct Nov » Dec » Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery Transp ortation equip>ment Lumber and Print- ChemAping icals parel ____ j and and prodpub- products lishing ucts Total Motor vehicles and parts 105.5 111. 9 108. 1 107.7 122. 2 143. 1 143.8 116. 5 9. 27 111. 1 108.4 89.5 97. 9 108. 2 118. 3 108. 7 97.4 4.60 120.3 116. 5 92. 3 118. 6 135. 8 148.8 128.2 111.1 105. 5 107.9 105. 6 113. 8 120.8 126. 0 116.2 107. 6 102. 9 106. 7 101. 4 104.7 109.4 117.3 114. 3 107. 6 4. 72 103. 2 107.4 107. 0 107. 1 112. 7 118. 2 118. 2 113. 3 109. 5 118.4 120.4 125.9 143.6 154.5 159.4 147. 3 8. 76 102.6 106. 1 108. 9 112. 8 116.8 120.9 124.0 123.4 12a6 122.7 106.7 130. 1 116.4 121. 2 118. 4 163. 3 128.5 129.0 131. 5 132.9 133.5 134. 0 133. 5 135. 0 136. 4 136. 8 134. 4 137.2 138.0 124. 7 105. 8 126.7 126. 5 109. 0 135.2 127. 8 111. 2 140.8 130. 0 110. 6 141. 3 131.8 112.9 144. 3 132. 0 112. 6 146. 5 131. 0 113. 3 148.5 135. 3 115. 0 150.6 133.7 104. 4 130.2 134. 8 104.3 128.3 135.6 113.0 145.6 137.0 120.0 159. 3 123.5 123. 9 121. 1 122. 8 123. 0 120. 3 124.6 128. 1 128. 7 130.7 131. 7 123. 8 12a 0 126. 3 126. 1 130. 3 126.8 125.6 123. 7 122.5 126.6 120.0 121. 0 121. 0 122. 0 120. 5 119. 7 122. 0 120. 6 120.6 119.2 121.3 122.0 162.9 167. 6 170. 6 168. 7 166. 6 170.0 167.6 170. 4 170.5 170.1 172.8 129. 2 130.8 12R3 129. 2 131.2 130. 5 131. 8 13a 4 135.7 136. 1 135.8 Total Iron and steel 6.67 104.3 113.8 106.6 100. 2 112. 1 126. 7 123. 1 96.4 4.21 103.2 112.6 104.7 96. 1 107. 1 122. 3 119.8 95.8 5.98 105.6 107. 9 102.4 103.5 112. 1 124. 7 124. 2 109.9 9. 15 101.8 109.3 104. 4 100.2 116. 0 133. 7 140. 1 125. 1 92.6 89, 1 117. 3 98. 1 103. 9 101.4 105.4 113.2 111. 5 116. 9 118. 6 114. 1 109.8 106.7 100.4 92. 9 100. 9 97. 7 103. 5 110. 7 110. 0 115. 3 116. 2 110. 3 105. 1 102.7 96.6 116. 6 120. 9 120. 2 121. 5 121. 4 124. 0 124. 6 125. 8 126.6 123.5 126.2 126. 6 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System. 18 NOD durable manufac tures 8.06 products l. 64 8.81 7. 74 Foods NEW CONSTRUCTION Construction contracts 2 Private Total new construction expenditures Period Resid ential Total Total 1 Commercial and industrial New housing Other Federal, State, and local llTl'if' a CommerTotal value cial and index industrial (1967= floor space 100) (millions of square feet) Bil lions of doll ars 1969.. 1970 1971 „ 1972__ 1973 1974 1975 93.9 949 .... ... 110.0 124. 1 137. 9 138. 5 132. 0 33.2 31. 9 43. 3 54.3 59.7 50.4 46. 5 66.0 66.8 80. 1 93.9 105.4 100.2 93. 0 16.2 16. 3 17. 0 18. 1 21. 7 23.8 20.8 25.9 24. 3 35. 1 44.9 50. 1 40. 6 34.4 16.6 18.6 19.8 21.5 24 0 26. 0 25. 7 Seasonally adjusted Seasonally / adjusted armual rates 1975: Nov Dec 1976: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct»p Nov 138.0 137.8 136.7 139.0 145. 1 144. 5 143.4 145. 4 141. 1 142. 0 146. 3 146. 7 150.2 50.4 52. 1 52. 8 55. 2 58. 1 58.9 58.8 58.7 57.2 55. 4 58. 7 63. 5 66.6 97.3 98. 1 99. 3 102.6 107. 1 106. 6 107. 2 106. 5 104. 3 104,7 108. 7 112. 8 116. 3 20. 1 19. 8 19.0 20.6 21. 0 19.8 19. 3 18. 7 18.7 19. 9 19. 7 19.0 19. 0 38.9 39.9 39. 3 41. 1 43. 8 44. 2 43.9 45.4 46.9 46.5 48. 8 51. 1 52.9 1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. 2 F. W. Dodge series. Kelates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971 for floor space. 123.7 123. 1 145.4 165.3 179. 5 169. 7 166. 0 28.0 2a 1 29.9 30.2 32.5 38.3 39.0 26.8 26.2 27.6 26.8 28. 0 27.9 29. 1 29. 1 28.4 29. 4 30. 3 30.4 30.7 40.7 39.8 37.4 36.4 38. 0 37. 9 36. 2 38.9 36.8 37. 3 37. 6 34.0 33.9 148 137 186 170 185 189 205 187 186 186 182 237 186 883 743 727 854 1, 010 840 569 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 504 609 462 496 653 648 657 693 676 654 592 658 596 Note.—New construction expenditures data prior to 1973 not comparable with later data. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] Isfew private housing uni bs Period Units started, by type of striicture Total 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976* 1, 466. 8 1, 433. 6 2, 052. 2 2, 356. 6 2, 045. 3 1, 337. 7 1, 160. 4 1, 539. 7 lunit 810.6 812. 9 1, 151. 0 1, 309. 2 1, 132. 0 888. 1 892.2 1, 162. 8 2-4 units 85. 0 84. 8 120.3 141. 3 118.3 68. 1 64.0 85. 7 5 or more units 571. 2 535. 9 780. 9 906.2 795.0 381.6 204. 3 291. 3 New priv ate homes Units authorized 1, 323. 7 1, 351. 5 1, 924. 6 2, 218. 9 1, 819. 5 1, 074. 4 939. 2 1, 281. 9 Units completed Homes sold Vacancy rate for Homes for rental sale at housing end of units period * (percent) 2 1, 399. 0 1, 418. 4 1, 706. 1 1, 971. 5 2, 013. 8 1, 691. 7 1, 296. 8 448 485 656 718 620 501 544 222 220 287 409 450 402 378 1,329 1,213 1,299 1, 399 1, 266 1, 360 1, 373 1, 307 1, 401 1, 387 1, 314 1,445 641 573 679 573 628 540 589 606 640 744 729 696 378 379 384 389 394 400 406 411 406 415 419 430 5. 5 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.2 6. 0 Seasonally adjusted armual rates 1975: Dec 1976: Jan Feb Mar Apr. May June. July Aug.. Sept Oct» Nov Dec v 1 1, 283 1,236 1,547 1,417 1, 367 1,422 1, 510 1, 382 1, 537 1, 840 1, 814 1,716 1,940 962 957 1,295 1, 110 1, 055 1,065 1, 139 1, 123 1, 171 1, 280 1, 337 1,237 1,323 Seasonally adjusted. 'Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. 77 70 62 80 76 94 76 69 84 114 105 97 115 244 209 190 227 236 263 295 190 282 446 372 382 502 1,091 1, 147 1, 165 1, 188 1, 082 1, 158 1, 150 1, 215 1, 296 1,504 1, 492 1,590 1,513 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.7 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—TOTAL AND TRADE Business inventories increased $0.5 billion in November/ the revised October increase was $1.6 billion. Business sales rose $4.1 billion (2.1 percent), most of which was in manufacturers1 sales. According to the advance survey, retail sales rose 3.1 percent in December, following a 1.9 percent rise in November. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 100 90 80 TOTAL BUSINESS INVENTORIES 300 RETAIL INVENTORIES 70 60 RETAIL SALES 50 ^•vuv 200 40 TOTAL BUSINESS SALES RATIO'>* 1973 1975 1974 1976 1977 100 1.30 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1973 1977 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total biisiness 1 Re tail Whol esale Sales 2 Period 1970 1971_ 1972. _ 1973 1974 1975 1975: Nov Dec 1976: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct._____ Nov p _ Dec* 1 2 The CJ | z bales _ 104, 708 112, 323 125, 269 _. 145, 297 166, 771 172, 525 178, 119 181, 647 183, 818 186, 968 190, 224 191, 745 190, 800 193, 700 193, 704 194, 672 194, 261 _ _ 192, 963 197, 051 Inventories 3 2 175, 418 184, 756 198, 045 227, 926 278, 386 275, 484 276, 804 275, 484 277, 057 279, 008 281, 256 283, 062 285, 693 289, 138 290, 866 293, 308 296, 537 298, 179 298, 689 DurNonable durable Tntfll goods goods I stores stores Millions of doll ars, seas onally £idjusted 20, 583 27, 290 31, 294 9,524 21, 770 46, 626 22, 327 29, 695 34, 071 10, 985 23, 086 52, 571 24, 862 32, 817 37, 365 12, 472 24, 893 57, 156 30, 400 38, 302 41, 943 14, 190 27, 754 65, 229 37, 344 46, 564 44, 815 13, 943 30, 872 73, 851 36, 583 45, 115 48, 702 15, 060 33, 642 74, 676 37, 018 45, 554 50, 552 15, 904 34, 648 75, 129 37, 360 45, 115 51, 734 16, 690 35, 044 74, 676 38, 159 45, 645 51, 592 16, 730 34, 862 75, 292 38, 816 46, 307 52, 601 17, 397 35,204 76, 243 39, 094 46, 398 53, 344 17, 403 35, 941 77, 298 39, 530 46, 826 53, 696 18, 046 35, 650 78, 102 39, 386 47, 799 52, 868 17, 419 35, 449 78, 406 40, 780 48, 645 53, 983 17, 803 36, 180 79, 375 40, 616 48, 805 53, 754 17, 699 36, 055 79, 917 40, 581 49, 006 54, 643 18, 208 36, 435 81, 118 41, 381 49, 723 54, 100 17, 481 36, 619 81, 848 40, 676 49, 847 54, 634 17, 559 37, 075 81, 658 40, 827 50, 165 55, 657 18, 202 37, 455 81, 410 57, 371 19, 142 38, 229 cj i z2 Invenbales tories 3 Total term "business" also includes manufacturing (see page 21). Monthly average for year and total for month. *Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month. 4 20 In ventorie 3 s DurNonable durable goods goods stores stores 20, 345 23, 864 26, 056 29, 593 34,301 34, 474 34, 568 34, 474 34, 479 34, 592 35, 231 35, 462 35, 547 35, 863 36, 523 37, 515 37, 822 37, 518 37, 683 26, 281 28, 707 31, 100 35, 636 39, 550 40, 202 40, 561 40, 202 40, 813 41, 651 42, 067 42, 640 42, 859 43, 512 43, 394 43, 603 44, 026 44, 140 43, 727 Invent< :>ry-sales ral io 4 Total business * 1.64 1.61 1. 52 1.46 1. 51 1.60 1. 55 1. 52 1. 51 1.49 1. 48 1.48 1.50 1.49 1. 50 1. 51 1.53 1. 55 1. 52 Retail 1.47 1.47 1. 46 1.46 1. 53 1. 51 1. 49 1.44 1.46 1.45 1.45 1. 45 1. 48 1. 47 1. 49 1.48 1.51 1.49 1. 46 Note.—Total business (and manufacturing) sales and inventories revise beginning 1958. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau ol Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND NEW ORDERS Manufacturers' new orders rose 1.9 percent in November despite a sharp decline (10.0 percent) in orders for nondefense capital goods. Sales increased 3.0 percent and inventories rose $0.4 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCAlQ - INVENTORIES 200 160 120 100 80 DURABLE GOODS 60 ...,. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) NONDURABLE GOODS - - NEW OR DERS TOTAL 100 XP 80 40 "" ^ r>^^\r-u-^""" S ^ 60 DURABLE GO ODS _ /xtr""£.tf* 1.60 NONDURAB LE GOODS - ! I ! I I I I 1 1 i1 1 1 i 1 1 I1 1 1 ii 197-* M ! II } I I ! I I 1074 RATIO 1.80 L-\ «>"* INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS 200 "" >t..^*-Ab -^^- 40 RATIO* 2.20 1 t I ! 1 1 I 1 1I I 197*; 197A I 1 ! 1 I1 1 ! MI 1.40 1.20. 1977 1973 1974 1975 1976 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Manufac;turers' sb ipments 1 Manufadburers3 im^entories 2 Manu facturers ' new orelers l Durab .e goods Period Total NonDurable durable goods goods Total NonDurable durable goods goods Total Total I IMillions oi" dollars, seasonally adjusted 1970 . 52, 831 55, 925 1971 1972 _ _ 63, 042 72, 954 1973_ 84, 612 1974 87, 240 1975 1975: Nov__ 90, 549 Dec._. 92, 553 1976: Jan__. 94, 067 Feb_>_ 95, 551 Mar__ 97, 786 Apr 98, 519 May__ 98, 546 June__ 98, 937 July-- 99, 334 Aug__ 99, 448 Sept— 98, 780 Oct.. .97, 653 Nov__ 100, 567 Dec'. 28, 215 29, 973 34,042 39, 704 44, 043 43, 912 44, 548 46, 772 47, 289 48, 430 50, 382 50, 146 50, 558 50, 606 51, 090 51, 648 50, 060 49, 267 51, 427 54, 596 24, 616 25, 953 28, 999 33, 250 40, 569 43, 328 46, 001 45, 781 46, 778 47, 121 47, 404 48, 374 47, 988 48, 331 48, 244 47, 799 48, 720 48, 386 49, 140 101, 502 102, 490 108, 072 124, 395 157, 971 155, 693 156, 121 155, 693 156, 120 156, 458 157, 560 158, 134 159, 488 161, 118 162, 144 163, 184 164, 966 166, 674 167, 114 66, 648 66, 149 70, 098 81, 218 101, 780 100, 310 101, 016 100, 310 99, 980 99, 942 100, 740 101, 033 101, 502 102, 429 102, 856 103, 282 104, 117 105, 589 106, 128 1 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as ties. 2 Book value, end of period. 3 Ene of period. * For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average 1977 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS 34, 854 52, 096 36, 341 55, 937 37, 974 64, 246 43, 177 76, 217 56, 191 86, 988 55, 382 85, 673 55, 105 90, 620 55, 382 91, 816 56, 140 92, 822 56, 516 95, 044 56, 820 98, 550 57, 101 98, 756 57, 986 99, 379 58, 689 99, 476 59, 288 99, 214 59, 902 97, 924 60, 850 98, 869 61, 085 99, 702 60, 986 101, 619 27, 447 29, 951 35, 142 42, 888 46, 570 42, 164 44, 282 45, 985 45, 904 47, 930 51, 111 50, 245 51, 354 51, 249 51, 180 50, 380 50, 068 51, 078 52, 611 56, 106 ManuffacCapital Nonturers' goods durable unfilled indus- goods orders3 tries, nondefense 7,053 7,575 8, 947 11, 169 12, 656 10, 899 11, 369 11, 054 11, 663 11, 900 12, 173 12, 476 12, 666 12, 607 13, 778 12, 690 13, 468 14, 302 12, 878 24, 649 25, 986 29, 104 33,329 40, 418 43, 509 46, 337 45, 830 46, 918 47, 114 47, 439 48, 511 48, 025 48, 227 48, 033 47, 544 48, 801 48, 624 49, 008 107, 460 107, 656 122, 362 161, 766 190, 271 171, 438 172, 175 171, 438 170, 193 169, 686 170, 450 170, 687 171, 520 172, 059 171, 938 170, 414 170, 503 172, 553 173, 605 Manufacturers' inventory— shipments ratio4 1.89 1.83 1.67 1. 58 1.66 1.80 1.72 1.68 1.66 1.64 1.61 1.61 1.62 1.63 1.63 1.64 1.67 1.71 1.66 monthly shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. Note.—Data revised beginning 1958. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 21 WHOLESALE PRICES PRICES In December, the wholesale price index rose 0.8 percent (0.9 percent seasonally adjusted). Prices of farm products and processed foods and feeds increased 3.1 percent (2.7 percent seasonally adjusted). Industrial commodities prices were up 0.2 percent (0.3 percent seasonally adjusted). INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 220 INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 220 200 200 120 120 100 100 1976 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [1967=100] All commodities Period 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974__ 1975 1976 106. 5 110.4 114.0 119. 1 134.7 160. 1 174.9 182. 9 1975: Dec 1976: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June_ July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 178. 7 179.3 179. 3 179.6 181.3 181. 8 183. 1 184. 3 183.7 184.7 185.2 185. 6 187.1 1 _ Farm products Indusand trial processed commodfoods ities and feeds 108. 0 106.0 111.7 110. 0 114.1 113. 9 122. 4 117.9 159. 1 125.9 177.4 153. 8 184. 2 171. 5 182. 3 183. 1 Unadjusted 186.0 176. 1 184.6 177. 3 182.0 178.0 180. 3 178.9 183.7 180. 0 180.4 184.9 187. 5 181. 3 188. 1 182.6 181. 7 183. 6 182. 7 184. 7 179.4 186. 3 187. 0 178. 4 187.4 183.9 Special ggroupings Farm products Processed foods and feeds 109. 1 111.0 112. 9 125. 0 176. 3 187. 7 186. 7 191. 1 107. 3 112. 1 114. 5 120. 8 148. 1 170. 9 182. 6 178. 0 197.2 192. 6 187. 7 185. 9 193.8 194. 9 195. 4 193. 4 187.7 191. 2 188.9 188.0 194. 9 181. 8 178.3 175. 5 175. 9 179. 3 181. 6 182. 4 180. 8 175. 6 176.4 175. 1 176. 2 179.7 Excludes crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs, plant and animal fibers, oilseeds, and leaf tobacco. 22 Crude mate-1 rials Inter- Producmediate er finmate-2 ished rials goods 110.6 106. 1 106.9 118.9 109.9 112.0 122.7 114. 3 116. 6 131. 1 119. 5 118. 9 155. 2 128. 1 123. 5 219. 1 159. 5 141. 0 178. 6 225. 1 162.5 189.4 173.2 250.0 Seasonally ad; usted 184. 6 167. 9 235.4 236.0 185. 2 169. 1 230. 0 185. 7 170. 0 236. 5 186. 3 170. 7 242.6 171. 3 186. 7 242. 6 186. 5 171. 4 172. 1 187.8 246. 1 172. 9 255. 5 188. 7 190. 1 255.7 173. 2 174. 5 254. 5 192.0 264.7 193. 3 177.0 194. 9 177. 4 270.7 267. 1 178. 7 196. 3 Consunler finished goods ex<3luding fo ods Total 104.6 107. 7 111. 2 113. 5 118. 6 138.6 153. 1 161.7 158.9 159. 1 159.4 159. 1 159. 0 159. 0 160.0 161. 2 162. 1 163. 9 165. 1 166. 2 166. 6 NonDurable durable 104. 0 105.0 106. 9 108.3 110.8 111. 7 113. 2 113. 6 115. 8 120. 5 126. 3 146.8 138.2 163. 0 144. 3 173. 2 141. 9 142. 5 142. 8 143. 1 142. 9 142. 9 143. 5 143.5 143. 9 145.3 146. 7 147. 4 147. 5 170. 1 170.2 170.4 169. 7 169. 9 169. 6 170. 8 172.6 174.2 176.2 177.4 178.6 179. 3 2 Includes supplies and components; excludes intermediate materials for foo manufacturing and manufactured animal feeds. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES In December, the consumer price index rose 0.3 percent (0.4 percent seasonally adjusted). Food prices increased 0.3 percent (0.2 percent seasonally adjusted). Nonfood commodity prices rose 0.2 percent (0.5 percent seasonally adjusted) and services prices were up 0.4 percent (also 0.4 percent seasonally adjusted). INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 220 INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 220 200 200 120 100 100 1969 1968 1971 1970 1972 1975 1974 1973 1976 COUNCIL OF 1CONOMIC ADVISERS SOURC& DEPARTMENT OF UK* [1967=100] Period 1969 1970 1971 1972_ 1973 1974 1975 1976 All items 109.8 116.3 121.3 125.3 133.1 147.7 161.2 170.5 Food Commodities less food Services commodities 108.9 114.9 118.4 123.5 141.4 161.7 175.4 180.8 108.1 112.5 116.8 119.4 123. 5 136.6 149. 1 156.6 112. 5 121.6 128.4 133.3 139. 1 152. 1 166.6 180.4 113.5 117.4 120.9 129.9 145.5 158.4 165.2 ioa4 All Food at home Food away from home 108.9 1149 118.4 123.5 141.4 161. 7 175.4 180.8 113.7 116.4 121.6 141.4 162.4 175.8 179.5 ioa2 111.6 119. 9 126. 1 131. 1 141. 4 159.4 174.3 186. 1 165.6 166.3 166. 7 167. 1 167. 5 168.2 169.2 170. 1 171. 1 171.9 172. 6 173.3 173.8 174.3 179.8 180, 7 180.8 180.0 178.7 179.2 180.0 180.9 182. 1 182.4 181.6 181.6 181.1 181.7 152.6 152.8 152.3 152.7 153.3 154.2 155. 5 156.5 157.1 158. 0 158.9 159.6 160. 3 160.6 172.0 173. 1 174.9 176,1 177; 2 177.7 17R4 179.5 180. 7 181.8 183. 2 184. 1 185.1 185.8 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Services All Durable Nondurable 108. 1 112. 5 116.8 119.4 123.5 136.6 149. 1 156.6 107.0 111.8 116.5 118.9 121.9 130.6 145.5 154. 3 108.8 113. 1 117. 0 119.8 124.8 140.9 151.7 158.3 112.5 121.6 128.4 133. 3 139. 1 152. 1 166.6 180.4 148.5 149.2 149.7 150. 6 151.7 152.7 153.6 154. 1 155. 0 155. 7 156. 3 156. 8 157.4 158.3 154.8 155.3 155.6 155.7 155.6 155. 7 156.6 157. 4 158. 4 159. 6 160. 2 160. 8 161. 6 162.2 171.7 172.8 174.7 176.0 177.2 178.0 Seasonal ly adjust ed Unac [justed 1975: Nov.-. Dec 1976: Jan Feb ... Mar... Apr May— June July— Aug Sept___ Oct Nov-__ Dec Comnaodities less food Food All 162.2 162.9 163.1 162.7 162.4 163.1 164,3 164.9 165.6 166.4 166.8 167.3 167.6 leas 180.6 181,6 181.2 179.4 177.9 178.9 180. 6 181.0 181.2 181.8 181.8 182.3 181.9 182.3 181.2 182. 1 181.4 178.6 176.5 177.7 179.5 179. 8 179.8 180.3 180. 1 180.7 180.0 180.3 178.6 179. 5 180.9 182.4 183.4 184.0 185. 0 186. 0 187. 1 187. 8 188. 5 188. 7 189.2 190.3 152.2 152.8 153. 1 153.5 153.9 154.4 155.3 156.0 156. 9 157. 9 isas 159. 1 159.8 160.6 i7as 179. 9 181. 0 182.0 183.0 184, 0 1847 185.4 23 CHANGES IN WHOLESALE PRICES Percen t change from preceding perio d; season ally adjussted 3 Period All commodities Farm products Processed foods and feeds 4.4 8.4 -4.7 8. 1 18.7 36. 1 -1.9 5. 5 -1. 1 3.0 6.8 ,8 4.7 11.6 20.3 20. 9 -3.8 -1. 1 Industrial commodities 2.8 4.8 2.2 4. 1 6.3 15.4 20.9 4.2 4.7 1975: Dec.. .3 .6 -1.4 .6 1976: Jan... Feb Mar.. ; Apr_._ May.. June.. July.. Aug.. Sept.. Oct.. Nov. . Dec.. 2 £ 2 8 3 4 3 - 1 9 6 6 9 -2.3 -2.5 -1.0 4.2 .6 .3 -1.0 -2.9 1.9 -1. 2 -.5 3.7 -1.9 -1.6 .2 1.9 1.3 .4 —.9 -2. 9 .5 4 1 3 3 1 5 7 7 9 10 8 3 _ *7 .6 2.0 All commodities Farm products 6.5 0.6 .9 -1. 1 -1. 8 2.5 5. 5 6.6 4,5 2.7 4.7 5.8 9. 0 9.0 -13.8 -16.1 -21.0 2.5 16.2 22. 1 -.8 -14.0 -8.3 -9.0 .6 8.0 Industrial commodities All commodities -7.3 10.8 a6 14.2 1.6 9.4 — 16. 6 -17.8 -12.4 2.3 14,6 15, 6 3.4 -12,6 -12.5 -12.0 1.4 7.7 7. 3 4.4 3.2 3.0 2.9 3.6 5.2 7.8 9.6 11.0 11. 6 8.9 6.4 3.8 2.3 1.7 2,1 2.3 3.5 4. 1 5.6 5. 1 5. 8 6.8 2. 9 -5. 1 -10.9 -6. 0 -1.2 -1. 8 .8 .0 5.8 -5. 0 -7.0 —.5 -4.5 -9.8 -9.9 -7.7 -2. 9 .7 2.8 .1 .6 -4.6 -5.9 -2.9 9. 5 8. 1 6.9 5. 1 3.7 3.4 4. 1 5.3 6.6 Processed foods and feeds Farm products Processed foods and feeds Industrial commodities 2.7 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.4 10.7 25.6 6.0 6.4 ._ _ 1968 1969_ 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975-. 1976 Percent c mnge fro m 3 mont!as earlier ; Percent <change from 6 mont tis earlier; season ally adjus ted annuail rates season*illy adju sted annusil rates »Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted). ai 9. 7 9.3 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES Percenit changej from pre ceding perio d; seasoiially adju,sted1 Period AU items 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Food Commodities less food Services Percent c tiange f re>m 3 mont bs earlier; Percent c iiange f re>m 6 mont hs earlier; seasonsilly adju sted annu al rates season!illy adju sted annual rates AU items Food Commodities less food Services AU items Food Commodities less food Services 4.7 6. 1 5. 5 3.4 3. 4 8. 8 12. 2 7.0 4.8 4.3 7. 2 2.2 4.3 4.7 20. 1 12. 2 6. 5 .6 3. 7 4. 5 4.8 2.3 2.5 5. 0 13.2 6. 2 5. 1 6. 1 7. 4 8.2 4. 1 3.6 6. 2 11. 3 8. 1 7.3 1975: Nov... Dec... .6 .5 .6 .6 .3 .4 1.0 .6 6.8 7.3 7.2 8.3 4.0 4.3 10.2 9.3 7.7 7.4 9.6 8.2 5.9 5.9 8.4 8.4 1976: Jan... Feb_._ Mar Apr.._ May___ June__ July... Aug___ Sept_ _ Oct___ Nov Dee____ .4 .1 .2 .4 .6 .5 .5 .5 .4 .3 .3 .4 — .2 -1. 0 -.8 .6 1. 0 .2 .1 .3 .0 .3 -.2 .2 .2 .3 .3 .3 .6 .5 .6 .6 .4 .4 .4 .5 1. 1 .7 .7 .5 .4 .6 .6 .6 .5 .5 .4 .4 6.5 4. 4 2. 9 2.9 4. 9 6. 1 6. 3 6. 0 5. 8 5. 2 4. 3 4.2 3.6 -2. 6 -7. 9 -5.0 2. 7 7. 2 5. 2 2. 7 1. 8 2. 5 .2 1. 1 3.7 3. 5 2.9 3.4 4. 8 5. 6 6. 6 6. 9 6. 6 5.7 4. 9 5.4 11.5 10. 4 10.6 7.8 6.5 6.2 6.9 7.4 7. 1 6.8 6. 1 5.4 6. 1 5.6 5. 1 4. 7 4.6 4. 5 4. 6 5.5 5.9 5.8 5. 1 5.0 3.9 2.2 -| -.8 .0 -. 7 .0 2. 7 4.4 3.8 1.4 1.4 4. 5 3. 8 3.6 3.6 4. 1 4. 2 5. 0 5. 8 6. 1 6.2 5.9 6.0 9.6 10. 3 9. 9 9.6 8.4 8. 4 7. 3 6. 9 6. 7 6. 9 6. 7 6.2 1 Annual change& are from December to December (imadjusted). 24 Sour ce: Departm ent of Labor, Bureau of L abor Statis tics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers increased 3 percent in the month ended December 15. Contributing most to the increase were higher prices for hogs, corn, soybeans, cattle, and eggs. Partially offsetting were lower prices for oranges, milk, wheat, and commercial vegetables. Prices paid by farmers rose 1 percent. !NDD(, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 220 200 PRICES RECEIVED (ALL FARM PRODUCTS) PRICES PAID (ALL ITEMS, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES) 60 1968 i 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 ' 1974 1976 1975 J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST. TAXES, AND WAGE RATES, ON 1910-14400 BASE. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Prices received by farmers Period All farm products Crops Prices paid by farmers items, Family ProducLivestock All interest, living tion and taxes, and products wage rates items items Index, 1967=100 Parity ratio l Actual Adjusted2 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 107 110 113 125 179 192 186 186 97 100 108 114 175 224 201 198 117 118 118 136 183 165 172 177 108 112 120 125 144 166 181 194 109 114 118 123 133 151 166 176 104 108 113 121 146 166 182 196 73 72 69 74 91 85 75 71 79 77 73 79 94 86 76 71 1975: Dec 15 186 188 184 184 171 186 74 75 1976: Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 June 15__ July 15 Aug 15 Sept 15... Oct 15 _ _ Novl5_ Dec 15.. 186 187 186 189 191 196 195 187 187 178 173 179 191 193 195 193 198 211 215 201 204 195 187 191 183 183 178 186 185 184 179 175 172 165 162 169 190 191 192 193 193 195 196 195 195 194 193 195 172 172 173 174 174 175 177 177 178 179 180 181 191 193 194 197 196 199 199 198 197 195 194 196 72 72 71 72 73 74 73 71 71 68 66 68 72 72 71 72 73 74 74 71 71 68 66 68 _ _„ 1 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates on 1910-14=100 base. 2 The adjusted parity ratio reflects Government payments made directly to farmers. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK Mi increased by $2.1 billion in December after being unchanged in November. Over the past 6 months (June to December) Mi and Ms grew at annual rates of 5.8 and 12.1 percent respectively. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) (RATIO SCALE) 800 200 - 200 1968 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNOI OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Over all meas ures 1 Deposi ts at co mmercia 1 banks Total Large CDs Other Deposits at nonbank thrift institutions 313.6 364.4 419. 1 452.4 491.5 454. 1 456. 7 457. 6 460.4 460.4 465. 9 470.0 468.7 472.5 478. 0 484.2 49-1.5 43.6 63.5 89.8 82.9 63.8 79.2 75.4 73. 2 71.5 68.2 70.6 69.6 64.4 62.4 62.0 62. 1 63.8 270.0 300. 9 329. 3 369.6 427.6 374.9 381.3 384.4 388.9 392.2 395. 3 400.4 404.4 410. 1 416.0 422. 2 427.6 319.6 348.0 369. 2 428.6 496.8 433.5 438. 8 444. 0 449. 3 454. 3 458.9 464.5 471.6 478.9 485.8 491.4 496. 8 Period M, M3 M3 Currency Timie and sa vings Demand 1972: Dec___ 1973: Dec,.. 1974: Dec... 1975: Dec... 1976: Dec *>_ 1976: Jan... Feb... Mar__ Apr May__ June. July,. Aug___ Sept Oet____ Nov.. Dec »__ 255. 3 270.5 283. 1 294,8 311.9 295. 1 296. 6 298. 1 301. 8 303. 5 303. 2 304.9 306.4 306. 3 309.8 309.8 311. 9 525.3 571.4 612.4 664. 3 739.5 670. 0 677. 9 682.6 690. 8 695. 7 698.5 705.4 710.8 716.4 725. 8 732. 0 739. 5 844.9 919.5 981. 6 1, 092. 9 1, 236. 3 1, 103. 5 1, 116. 7 1, 126. 5 1, 140. 0 1, 150. 0 1, 157. 4 1, 169. 9 1, 182. 3 1, 195. 3 1, 211. 7 1, 223. 4 1, 236. 3 56.9 61.5 67. 8 73.7 80.7 74.2 75. 0 75. 7 76.7 77.3 77.6 78. 1 78.6 79. 1 79. 8 80.3 80. 7 198.4 209. 0 215. 3 221. 0 231. 2 220.9 221. 6 222.4 225.2 226. 2 225. 6 226. 8 227.8 227.2 230.0 229.5 231.2 i is currency plus demand deposits; M2 is MI plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large certificates of deposit (CDs); and MS is M2 plus deposits at nonbank thrift institutions. 26 Per sent chaiige * Comportents anc1 related iterns U.S. Government demand deposits (unadjusted) 7.4 6.3 4,9 4. 1 4.4 3.8 4.6 3. 9 3. 9 3. 8 4.8 3.4 3.6 4.9 3.8 4. 0 4.4 Mt 9.2 6.0 4.7 4. 1 5. 8 2.2 2.3 3. 1 5. 8 5.4 5. 8 6.8 6. 7 5. 6 5. 4 4. 2 5.8 M, 11.4 as 7.2 a5 11.3 7. 1 8.6 9. 3 11. 0 10.4 10. 6 10. 8 9. 9 10. 1 10. 4 10. 7 12.1 3 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. PRIVATE LIQUID ASSET HOLDINGS—NONFINANCIAL INVESTORS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Curnjncy and deposits Period 1970: 1971: 1972: 1973: 1974: 1975: 1976: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dee* 1975: Dec Currency Total Demand deposits Commercial banks Other private money market instruments 770.9 632.5 857.4 721.0 817.4 972.0 887.4 1, 083. 6 1, 175. 2 944.6 1, 301. 8 1, 053. 3 1, 445. 5 1, 195. 7 49. 1 52. 6 56.9 61. 5 67.8 73.7 80.7 151.8 161. 5 176. 5 183.3 186.6 190.6 199.5 233. 6 264.4 294.4 321. 1 360. 3 418.7 i9a9 232.7 273.4 319. 6 348. 0 369. 2 428.6 496. 8 52.0 543 57. 6 60. 4 63. 3 67. 3 71.9 42.0 31.7 345 43.2 47. 1 65. 7 71.5 23.0 30.2 39.8 58. 1 79.8 72. 9 56. 0 21.4 20.2 22.7 346 40.4 42. 7 50. 5 1, 301. 8 1, 053. 3 73.7 190.6 360.3 428. 6 67.3 65.7 72.9 42.7 74.2 75.0 75.7 76.7 77.3 77.6 78.1 78. 6 79. 1 79.8 80.3 80.7 191.0 191.8 192.0 194. 5 196.0 195.0 195. 9 19a 7 195. 7 198.3 197.5 199.5 365. 8 372.5 375. 9 381. 1 384. 6 387.4 392.7 397. 1 402. 7 407. 9 413. 8 418. 7 433.5 438.8 444 0 449. 3 454. 3 458.9 4645 471.6 478.9 485.8 491. 4 496.8 67.6 68.0 68.3 68.6 69. 0 69.4 69. 7 70. 3 70.8 71. 1 71.5 71.9 6&5 66.8 67.8 68.5 69. 1 70. 0 72. 0 71. 4 69.6 70.2 70.9 71.5 69. 5 66. 1 64 1 62.3 58.9 61. 1 60. 0 54 9 53. 4 53. 6 54 1 56,0 43.1 43. 3 43.6 444 45. 8 47.2 48. 0 48. 2 48. 3 48. 7 49. 6 50.5 1, 311. 3 1, 322. 3 1, 331. 3 1, 345. 3 _ _ _ _ 1, 355. 0 1, 366. 5 1, 380. 9 ._ — 1, 388. 7 1, 39R 3 1, 415. 5 1, 428. 9 1, 445. 5 1976: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July... Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec » Negotiable certifiShortNonbank cates of term Savings marketthrift deposit bonds able seinstitutions curities Timed eposits Total liquid assets U.S. TJreasury seeujities 1, 064. 5 1, 078. 1 1, 087. 6 1, 101. 6 1, 112. 2 1, 118. 9 1, 131. 2 1, 144. 0 1, 156. 4 1, 171. 9 1, 182. 9 1, 195. 7 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; CONSUMER INSTALMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Instalm ent credit e:^tended Period Total * 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 2 1976 1975: Dec 1976: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct___ Nov 2 Dec _ 109, 146 112, 175 123, 086 140, 072 160, 228 160, 008 163, 483 185, 900 15, 228 15, 132 15, 045 15, 521 15, 003 15, 041 15, 592 15, 240 15, 685 15, 775 16, 055 15, 763 16, 275 Automobile 32, 553 29, 965 34, 778 40, 266 46, 105 43, 209 48, 103 55, 439 4,642 4,505 4, 523 4,689 4,583 4,471 4,600 4,477 4, 712 4,769 4,587 4,632 4,820 Bank credit cards Total * 4, 398 6,768 8,377 10, 390 13, 863 17, 098 20, 428 25, 493 1,839 1, 921 2,012 2, 118 1,985 2, 103 2,088 2, 152 2, 183 2, 165 2, 198 2,181 2,245 99, 786 107, 385 113, 788 124, 513 140, 552 151, 056 156, 640 169, 463 13, 738 14, 029 13, 923 14, 048 13, 576 13, 566 14, 261 13, 937 14, 282 14, 294 14, 491 14, 520 14, 670 1 Includes some items not shown separately. a Preliminary; December by Council of Economic Advisers^ Instalmc3nt credit lieluidated Automobile 29, 974 30, 432 31, 303 34, 705 40, 137 42, 883 45, 472 48, 311 3,883 3,966 3,909 4,026 3,851 3,819 4,074 3,922 4,090 4,165 4,059 4,155 4,190 Bank credit cards 3,066 5, 615 7,679 9,472 12, 433 15, 655 19, 208 23, 754 1,832 1,815 1,881 1,926 1,846 1,911 1,990 1,981 2,097 2,000 2,074 2,110 2,105 Net change in amount outstanding Total l 9,360 4, 790 9,299 15, 559 19, 676 8,952 6,843 16, 437 1,490 1, 103 1, 123 1,473 1,427 1,474 1,330 1,303 1,403 1,481 1,564 1,243 1,605 Automobile 2,579 —468 3,476 5,561 5,968 327 2,631 7,128 759 539 614 663 732 652 526 556 621 605 528 477 630 Bank credit cards 1, 332 1, 153 699 918 1,430 1,443 1,220 1,739 6 106 132 192 139 193 98 171 86 166 123 71 140 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (except as noted). 27 BANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES Commercial and industrial loans fell slightly in December after increasing for 3 consecutive months. Bank holdings of U.S. Government securities increased by $17.1 billion in 1976 compared to a $29.0 billion increase in 1975. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS INVESTMENT IN US. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 60 40 40 1968 1969 1970 1971 '"SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, END OF MONTH SOURCE* BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period Total loans and investments 401. 7 1969 435. 5 1970 485. 7 1971 1972 558. 0 1973 633. 4 1974 * 690. 4 721. 1 1975 767. 5 1976* _ 1976: Jan » 723. 3 Feb " 726. 7 Mar * 731. 2 Apr »p 734. 5 May 737. 6 June » 738. 8 July *> 743. 1 Aug » _ .__ 748. 7 Sept *_ 752. 5 Oct*v _ 760. 3 Nov 766. 3 Dec* 767.5 1 Data 2 1973 1974 1975 1976 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] All commercial banks 1 All member banks Borrowi ngs (milL Dans IReserves 2 3 Investndents lions of dollars, unadji isted) * Total ex- Commer- U.S. Gov- Other cluding cial and ReNonSeaernment secuTotal Total inter- industrial securities borrowed quired sonal rities bank 51.2 279.4 105.7 27. 93 27. 65 26. 81 71.1 1,086 292.0 57.8 321 110.0 29. 11 28.86 85.7 28.77 320.9 104.2 31. 24 31. 12 31. 06 116. 1 60.6 107 130.2 378. 9 31.44 31. 16 30. 39 62.6 116.5 1,049 449. 0 156.4 54.5 34.98 33.69 34.68 129.9 1,298 41 500.2 50.4 183.3 36. 63 35.90 36.37 139. 8 703 32 34. 75 34.62 79.4 34. 49 496.9 176. 0 144. 8 127 13 521. 6 176.2 96.5 149.4 34.97 34.72 35.03 62 13 497.3 176.6 34. 32 34.24 34. 08 81.0 79 145.0 9 175.1 497.8 144. 5 34. 05 84.4 33. 97 33. 83 76 11 5 499. 7 171. 4 88.2 34. 00 33. 78 143.3 33. 95 58 8 500.5 170.5 34. 02 33. 98 33.87 44 90.0 144.0 11 500. 6 34. 14 170. 7 34. 02 33. 93 121 93.0 144.0 11 170.2 500.7 144. 1 34. 34 94. 0 34. 12 34.21 120 20 504.7 171. 0 92.7 145. 7 34.39 34.25 34. 15 123 24 507.6 171.0 34. 32 95.0 146. 1 34.52 104 34.42 28 511. 4 172. 0 94. 0 34. 36 34. 30 147. 1 34. 16 75 31 519.3 174.8 93.5 34. 39 147.5 34.49 34. 27 66 32 521.8 34. 88 176.7 34. 81 34. 62 94.3 150. 2 84 21 521. 6 176.2 149.4 3497 34.72 62 96.5 35.03 13 are for end of period. Averages of daily figures. Annual data are for December. 'Member bank reserves series reflects actual reserve requirement percentages with no adjustment to eliminate the effect of changes in Kegulations D and M. 28 1972 * During 1974, total loans and investments were increased $0.6 billion due to a bank merger and were reduced $1.5 billion due to liquidation of a large bank. 6 Loan ^classifications reduced these loans by $1.2 billion as of March 31,1976. Source: Board of Governor? of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [BflMons of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External Period Internal 1 Total 1967 1968 1969_. 1970_ 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 . -. 1975: I II III IV_ 1976: I II III ... Credi t market funds Total Total Longterm 2 Short-3 term Total Other Purchase of physical 4 assets Increase in financial assets Discrepancy (sources less uses) 93.3 114,5 118.6 105.1 129.0 154.0 181.7 183.0 145.5 61.3 62.3 61.7 58.9 68.6 80.8 83.8 77.6 103.4 32.0 52.2 56.9 46.2 60.4 73.2 97.8 105.4 42.1 28.9 31.9 38.4 41.5 46.4 58.8 72.9 83.1 37.1 21.0 18.9 20.8 32.6 41.6 41.4 37.4 39.6 49.8 7.9 13.0 17.7 8.9 4.7 17.3 35.5 43.5 -12.8 3.1 20.3 18.5 4.8 14.0 14.4 25.0 22.2 5.0 89.4 106.4 113.4 96.1 115.1 137.5 165. 5 169.9 130.9 72.6 77.6 85.0 80.6 86.2 101.0 124.4 134.6 95.7 16.8 28.8 28.4 15.4 28.8 36.5 41. 1 35.3 35.2 3. 9 8. 1 5.2 9.0 13. 9 16. 4 16. 1 13. 1 14.5 83.5 130.7 171.0 196.7 83.5 101.5 113.6 114.9 .0 29.2 57.4 81.8 35.0 32. 1 31.1 50.0 52. 9 54.4 37.9 54.0 -18. 0 -22. 2 -6.8 -4.0 -35.0 -2.9 26.3 31.7 68.6 115. 3 157.9 182.2 89.8 80. 9 106.8 105. 5 -21.2 34.4 51. 1 76.7 14. 9 15. 4 13.2 14. 6 200. 9 200. 1 198.5 120.6 121.3 128. 1 80.3 78.8 70.4 45.4 48. 1 38.0 48.6 43.0 37.7 -3. 1 5.0 .2 34.8 30.6 32,4 190.9 195.4 189.2 129. 3 140. 5 143.7 61.6 54.9 45. 5 9. 9 4. 6 9.3 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits. a Stocks, bonds, and mortgages. * Bank loans, commercial paper, finance company loans, bankers' acceptances! and Government loans. 4 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars] Ciirrent ass BtS Total Cash on hand and in banks i 386.2 1967 426.5 1968 473.6 1969 492. 3 1970 529. 6 1971 1972 573. 5 643.3 1973 712. 2 1974 731. 6 1975 1975: I_- .698.4 II... 703. 2 III.. 716. 5 IV... 731. 6 753. 5 1976: I II— 775.4 III*_ 791. 8 45.5 48.2 47.9 50. 2 53. 3 57. 5 61. 6 62. 7 68. 1 60.6 63.7 65. 6 68. 1 68. 4 70. 8 71.1 End of period Cur rent liab ilities U.S. Receivables Govfrom ernU.S. ment Govsecuriernties 2 ment 3 Notes and accounts receivable 5. 1 5. 1 150. 2 168.8 192. 2 201. 9 217. 6 240. 0 266. 1 289. 7 294.6 281. 9 284, 8 294.7 294. 6 307. 3 318. 1 324.2 1 Includes time certificates of deposit. : 8 Includes Federal agency issues. 10. 3 11.5 10.6 7.7 11. 0 9.3 11.0 11.7 19. 4 12. 1 12.7 14.3 19. 4 21. 7 23.3 23.9 4.8 4.2 3.5 3. 4 3. 5 3. 5 3.6 3.2 3. 3 3.3 3.6 3.6 3. 7 4.3 Other curInvenrent tories assets 4 Total 22. 0 26. 9 31. 6 35.0 43.8 48. 1 54. 4 56. 6 60. 0 55. 4 57. 3 59. 0 60.0 63. 6 63. 9 66. 3 211. 3 244. 1 287. 8 304. 9 326. 0 352. 2 401. 0 450. 6 457. 5 438. 0 434. 2 444. 7 457.5 465. 9 475. 9 484. 1 153. 1 166. 0 186.4 193. 3 200. 4 215. 2 246. 7 288. 0 285. 8 285. 2 281. 4 279. 6 285. 8 288. 8 295. 6 302. 1 Eeceivables from and payables to the TI.S, Government do not include amounts offset against each other on corporations' books or amounts arising from subcontracting which are not directly due from or to the U.S. Government. Wherever possible, adjustments have been made to include U.S. Government advances offset against inventories on corporations' books. Advances and Notes and preacpayments, counts payU.S. Govable ern- 3 ment Federal income tax liabilities Other current liabili-s ties 141. 3 162. 4 191. 9 204. 7 215. 6 230.4 261.6 287. 5 281. 6 271. 2 270. 1 273. 4 281. 6 280. 5 287. 0 284.7 13.2 14.3 12. 6 10. 0 13. 1 15. 1 18. 1 23. 2 20. 7 21. 8 17. 7 19. 4 20. 7 23. 9 22. 0 24. 9 51. 0 61. 0 76. 0 83. 6 92. 4 102. 6 117. 0 134. 8 148.8 139.8 140. 6 145.6 148.8 155. 0 160. 1 167.5 5. 8 6. 4 7. 3 6.6 4. 9 4.0 4. 3 5. 2 6. 4 5. 3 5. 8 6. 2 6.4 6. 4 6. 8 7.0 Net working capital 174. 9 182.4 185. 7 187.4 203. 6 221.3 242. 3 261. 5 274. 1 260. 4 269. 0 271.8 274. 1 287. 6 299. 4 307.7 4 Includes marketable investments (other than Government securities and time certificates of deposit) as well as sundry current assets. 6 Includes commercial paper outstanding, the portion of long-term debt due in less than 1 year, and miscellaneous current liabilities not elsewhere classified. Source: Securities and Exchange Commission. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Both short-term and Ions-term interest rates increased sharply in early January, interrupting the relatively steady decline which began in mid-1976. PIERCENT PER ANNUM PER(:ENT PER ANNUJA in 10 CORPORATE,tea BONDS {MOO Drs) X ,/-v <</\; X/ V ''X v\ fp*-' I A J f' 1 'k D1S COUNT RATE FE DERAL RE SERVE BA NK OF NE\V YORK • x/J \ I 4 \ v\ 3 --N/ /^ /\ ^ y /| M 1 /^ V ^-^fT v/ /~N*N ' v\ 1 : /J A h *• /n—i i* \ H / *•***' \V/ \' / -J ^*'"N L 1 \T\ \ * *- V lu n/'J —, TREASURY SILLS W f \\ ^ 1 / V 2 /I I I I ! I I ! I M I 1 | i | 1 I ! 1 I M1 ! 1 ! | f | I 1 I ! • 1 - 1 1 1 ! l-f'H'l I 1968 1969 1970 M 1 I 1 1 I I 1 I !f 1972 1971 1 1 1 1 !1 1 f ii 1973 f I I| 1I1 11 !1 1974 1 1 r 1 1 1 1 1 M | i i i i i ! i i i i IK 1 1975 1976 SOURC& Si£ TABli IflOW COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] U.S. Government secu rity yields Period 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1976: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug. _ _ Sept Oct Nov „ Dec 1977: Jan Week ended : 1976: Dec 31 1977: Jan 7 14 21___ 28 3-month Treasury bills1 3-5 year issues 2 4.348 4.071 7.041 7.886 5.838 4.989 4.961 4.852 5.047 4.878 5. 185 5.443 5.278 5. 153 5. 075 4.930 4. 810 4.354 4. 597* 5.77 5.85 6.92 7.81 7.55 6.94 7. 18 7. 18 7.25 6.99 7. 35 7.40 7.24 7. 04 4. 296 4. 407 4. 613 4. 668 4,700 5.98 6. 12 6.48 6.57 1 3 Rate on new issues "within period. Selected note and bond issues. 3 4 April 1953 to date, bonds due or callable Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 1 Taxable bonds 3 HighCorporate grade municipal Aaa bonds bonds (Standard (Moody's) & Poor's)4 5.74 5.63 6.30 6. 99 6. 98 6.78 6.94 6. 92 6.87 a 73 6.99 6.92 a 85 6.79 6.70 6. 65 6.62 a 84 6. 50 6. 35 5.96 a 39 6.37 6.42 a 62 6.73 5.70 5.27 5. 18 6. 09 6.89 6.49 6. 80 6.91 a 86 6.62 6.87 6.85 6.64 6.28 6.20 6.06 6. 05 7.39 7.21 7.44 8.57 8.83 469 8.40 8.58 8.62 8.56 8.45 8.38 8.32 8.25 7.98 5. 35 5.27 5.23 5.37 5.23 5.54 5. 94 5.67 5.47 5. 45 5.22 5. 05 4.70 5. 59 5. 60 5. 72 5. 72 7. 91 7. 88 7. 94 8. 02 4. 4. 4. 4. * Not charted. 10 years and after. Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 30 Prime commercial paper, 4-6 months a 43 8.60 a 55 a 52 1 5. 11 4.69 8. 15 9.87 a 33 65 63 75 75 Discount rate (N.Y. F.R. Bank)8 Prime rate charged by banks 5 4.88 4. 50 6.44 7.83 6.25 5.50 6 -5K 5#-5# 5M-5H 5H-5H 5&-5H 5H-5H 5Mr-5H 5/2-5X2 5H-5K 5K-5H 5H-5tf 5. 72 5.25 8. 03 10.81 7.86 6.84 7H-6s/4 6tf-6fc 6&-6X 6%-6% 5^H% T/i-TA, 7%-7 7 -7 7 -6% 6J4-6H 6H-6tf 5&-5K 5M-5K 5H-5K 5#-5« 6K-6K 6K-6K 6#-6# 6%-6K 6%-6% 7 -7% Newhome mortgage yields (FHLBB)« 7. 74 7.60 7. 95 8.92 9.01 a 99 8.99 8. 93 8. 93 8. 92 8. 97 8.89 8. 97 9. 02 9.08 9.07 9.05 9. 10 6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Bates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation, COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices fell in early January after rising steadily in November and December 1976. INDEX, DEC 31,1965«50 80 INDEX, DEC3X 1965=50 180 70 70 COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX (NYSE) 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 I t 11 \ I I t I M 1968 1970 1969 1972 1971 1973 1975 1974 1976 PER CB^T 20 PERC :NT 20 (S&P) 1 ! 1 1968 1 I 1 1969 1 1 1 1970 ^S ^ 1 1 1 ! 1971 1 1 1 1972 1 1 1973 \ V X^-^.——— \ .—**i r^-. 5 0 // \ in 15' /*»w I ARNlNGS-klCE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS 5 \ 1974 1 i i i 1975 SOURCES. NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION New York Stock Exch ange indexes3 (Dec. 31, 11965 = 50) a Composite Industrial Transportation 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1975: Dec 1976: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June.- — July Aug. Sept Oct Nov _ _ Dec Week ended: 1976: Dec 24 31 1977: Jan 7 14_._ 21 1 Finance Utility 54.22 60.29 57.42 43.84 45. 73 5446 46.78 51.31 53.73 54. 01 54. 28 53. 87 54. 23 55.68 55. 18 56. 29 54.43 54. 17 56. 34 57.92 65.73 63.08 48.08 50. 52 60.44 51.89 57. 00 59.79 60. 30 60. 62 60. 22 60.70 62. 11 61. 14 62.35 60.07 59.45 61.54 44.35 50. 17 37.74 31.89 31. 10 39.57 31.61 35.78 38. 53 39. 17 38. 66 39.71 40.41 42. 12 40. 63 40. 36 38.37 39.28 41.77 39.53 38.48 37. 69 29.79 31. 50 36.97 32.75 35.23 36. 12 35.43 35. 69 35.40 35. 16 36.49 37. 56 38.77 38.33 38. 85 40.61 70.38 78.35 70. 12 49.67 47. 14 52.94 43.86 48.83 52. 06 52. 61 52. 71 50.99 51. 82 54.06 54.22 54. 52 52. 74 53.25 57.45 56. 25 57.46 56. 98 56. 38 56. 14 61. 36 62. 87 62. 18 61. 46 61. 09 42.03 42. 22 42. 52 42. 10 41.75 40.77 41. 11 41. 10 40. 86 41. 02 57.33 58. 65 58. 52 58. 07 57.99 Averages of daily closing prices. s Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. *£ Includes 30 stocks. * Includes500stocks. Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. ! 1 ! 1976 0 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Common stock yields (perc ent) * Cominon stock pirices l Period 1A Standard Dow& Poor's composite Dividend- EarningsJones index industrial ratio ratio average 8 (1941-43= 10) 4 5.41 98.29 3. 14 884.76 5. 50 2.84 109. 20 950. 71 7. 12 923. 88 107. 43 3.06 11.59 759. 37 82.85 4.47 9.04 802. 49 4. 31 86. 16 974,92 102. 01 3.77 8.64 4.14 840. 80 88.70 929. 34 3.80 96.86 100. 64 3.67 971. 70 8.29 3.65 988. 55 101. 08 992. 51 3.66 101. 93 988. 82 101. 16 a 76 8. 76 985. 59 3.75 101. 77 993. 20 3.64 104.20 103. 29 3. 74 981. 63 9. 02 994. 37 105. 45 3. 71 951. 95 3.85 101. 89 944. 58 4. 04 101. 19 976. 85 3.93 104.66 980. 24 998. 97 985. 74 976. 02 963. 96 104. 36 106. 70 105. 50 104. 19 103. 44 3.93 3.87 3.93 3.98 3.97 NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 31 DEBT In the first 2 months of fiscal 1977 the deficit was $20.9 billion. October-November 1976s, the budget deficit was $20.4 billion. A year earlier WLLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 450 450 RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS 400 400 350 350 OUTLAYS 300 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 50 50 SURPLUS (+) OR DEFICIT (-} -50 -50 -100 -100 JL 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 FISCAL YEARS 1975 1976 SOURCES, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET 1977 1978 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Federal debt ( end of period) Period Fiscal year or period: 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Transition quarterOctober-November 1975 2 October-November 1976 Receipts __ ._ ._ __ __ _ _ _ . 1 Excludes non-interest-bearing public debt securities held by IMF. 2 First 2 months of fiscal year 1977. 32 Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) TVvfal 1 Held by the public 149. 6 153.7 187. 8 193. 7 188. 4 208. 6 232.2 264. 9 281. 0 300. 0 81. 8 158. 3 178. 8 184. 5 196. 6 211. 4 232. 0 247. 1 269. 6 326. 1 366. 5 94. 7 -8.7 -25. 2 3.2 -2. 8 -23. 0 -23.4 -14.8 -4.7 -45. 1 -66.5 -13. 0 341.3 369. 8 367. 1 382. 6 409. 5 437.3 468.4 486. 2 544. 1 631. 9 646. 4 267.5 290.6 279.5 284.9 304. 3 323. 8 343.0 346. 1 396.9 480. 3 498. 3 41. 2 46. 7 62. 1 67. 1 -20. 9 -20. 4 577. 7 656. 3 438. 0 509.5 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 2 months of fisca! 1977 (October-November 1976) receipts were $5.5 billion higher and expenditures $5.0 billion higher than a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 50 OUTLAYS 300 250 v- NONDEFENSE 200 200 150 150 NATIONAL DEFENSE 100 100 I 50 M 1969 1 1970 ! 1971 i ! 1972 ' 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 50 1978 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCISs DEPARTMENT OF THi TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] ()utlays Rece ipts Nation a i defense Period Total Fiscal year or period: 1967 1968_ _ _ 1969 _ _ 1970_ _ 1971 1972 1.973™ 1974 1975 1976 Transition quarter _ October-November 1975_ October-November 1976 *_ i First 2 months of fiscal year 1977. 149. 6 153. 7 187.8 193. 7 188. 4 208. 6 232. 2 264. 9 281. 0 300.0 81.8 41. 2 46. 7 Indi- Corpovidual ration Other income income taxes taxes Total 54. 1 56.3 63.9 70. 5 75. 4 81. 7 92. 8 107. 4 118. 0 127. 0 34. 5 158. 3 178.8 184. 5 196. 6 211. 4 232. 0 247. 1 269. 6 326. 1 366. 5 94. 7 61. 5 68. 7 87. 2 90. 4 86.2 94. 7 103. 2 119. 0 122. 4 131. 6 38. 8 21.0 23. 6 34. 0 28. 7 36. 7 32. 8 26. 8 32. 2 36. 2 38. 6 40. 6 41. 4 8. 5 1. 5 1.7 18. 6 21.4 Total 62. 1 67. 1 69. 1 79.4 80. 2 79. 3 76.8 77.4 75. 1 78. 6 86.6 90. 0 22. 5 15. 8 15. 0 Department of Defense, military Interna- Health Inand tional income terest Other affairs security 67. 5 77. 4 77.9 77.2 74. 5 75. 2 73. 3 77.6 85. 0 88. 0 21. 9 4.7 4. 6 3. 8 3.6 3. 1 3.9 3.5 4.8 5. 9 5. 1 2.0 4.7 43.4 49. 0 56. 1 70. 1 81.4 91. 8 106. 5 136. 3 160.9 41. 5 15. 0 15. 1 .9 .8 26.2 28.4 12. 5 13. 8 15, 8 343 18.3 19.6 20. 6 22. 8 28. 1 31.0 34.6 37. 7 35. 7 39.3 41.8 48. 8 53. 9 51. 7 66.4 76.0 21.5 6.0 13. 3 17.8 7.2 5. 1 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget, 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS According to preliminary estimates for calendar 1976, Federal receipts rose $44.1 billion and expenditures $31.1 billion, yielding a deficit of $58.3 billion, or $12.9 billion less than in 1975. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 440 400 160 SURPLUS m m~~ Ri PI K* m »i l iiiu H *| txd "^^ ""I -40 -120 II1y1I \I I 1l y 1 i -40 DEFICIT 1968 1969 1970 1972 1971 1973 1974 I 1?7r6 197 5 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCEi DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCU. OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal CTovernm snt receip ts Period Indirect Personal Corporate business Total profits tax and tax nontax receipts accruals accruals I''ederal (Jovernm ent expe uditures GrantsSubsidies Less: ContriPurin-aid less Wage butions chases Trans- to State Net current accruals for Total of goods fer pay- and interest surplus of less social inlocal and ments paid Govern- dissurance governservices ment en- bursements terprises ments Surplus or deficit (-), national income and product accounts Fiscal year: 1974 271.9 1975 283.2 1976 313.6 Calendar year: 1972 227.5 1973 258. 3 1974 288.2 1975 286.5 1976 » 330. 6 122. 6 127. 3 137.2 43. 8 41. 6 51. 0 21. 4 22. 1 24. 5 84. 1 278.9 92.2 329.5 100.9 373.0 104.8 119.0 127.2 104.7 134. 1 156.7 41. 6 48. 3 57.5 19.8 21.9 25.8 7.9 5,7 5.8 -0. 2 -.4 .0 -7.1 -46.3 — 59.4 108.2 114.6 131. 2 125.7 145.3 36. 6 43. 0 45. 6 42. 6 55. 9 20.0 21. 2 21.7 23.9 23. 5 62. 8 79.4 89.8 94.3 105. 8 244.7 265. 0 299.7 357.8 388. 9 102. 1 102.2 111.6 124.4 133.4 83.2 95.8 117.6 148. 9 162.2 37. 5 40. 6 43. 9 54.4 60.2 14.6 18.2 20.9 23. 5 27.5 7.8 8.2 5.2 6.5 5. 6 .5 .0 -.5 .0 .0 -17.3 -6.7 -11.5 -71.2 -5a3 1975: III__ 297.7 IV 306. 7 130. 5 135. 1 47.4 49.4 25. 2 25. 5 94. 7 363. 7 96.6 376.0 124.6 130.4 152. 1 154.9 56.8 58. 0 23.6 25.6 6.7 7. 1 .0 .0 -66.0 -69.4 1976: !____ 316. 5 11 324.6 III_. 333. 8 IV *>_ 137.7 141. 9 147.2 154. 5 53. 1 54.8 56.2 22. 8 23.3 23. 8 24. 1 129. 2 131.2 134.5 138.9 160. 3 158. 7 163. 1 166. 5 58. 8 56. 3 60. 1 65. 5 26. 6 27.4 27.7 28.4 5.4 5.2 5.6 6.3 .0 .0 .0 .0 — ea 8 102. 9 104.6 106.6 109. 3 380.3 378.7 391. 1 405.6 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget. 34 -54. 1 -57.4 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES [1967=100] Iiadustrial producjtion (seit-sonally <adjuste<1) Period United States Canada Japan 111 108 110 120 130 129 118 127 129 131 132 130 132 133 111 114 123 132 143 147 140 145 147 146 133 152 156 167 197 189 168 181 191 193 1969. 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976: III—. III__ IV.. Oct. Nov Dec GerFrance many Italy 127 135 137 142 153 150 142 150 152 150 111 118 115 119 134 141 128 137 142 118 124 132 142 150 154 140 150 152 156 144 Coiisumer prices (umadjusted) United United King- States dom 109 111 111 113 122 120 114 114 115 115 Canada 110 116 121 125 133 148 161 167 169 172 174 173 174 174 159 GerJapan France many Italy United Kingdom 109 112 116 121 130 145 160 168 171 173 111 120 127 133 149 183 205 217 224 225 111 117 124 131 141 160 178 189 193 197 105 109 115 121 130 136 144 149 151 152 104 109 114 121 134 160 187 202 215 221 110 118 128 138 150 174 217 241 249 255 175 176 230 232 201 152 152 231 263 Sources: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, in Business Conditions Digest. U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Merc' landise i niports 3 Genteral imp orts Mercb andise e xports Domesti(3 exports Period rr\ i -I lotal domestic and foreign Total * 2 exports Food, Crude bever- mate- Manufac- Total 2 rials ages, tured and to- and bacco fuels goods F.a.s. valu e 5 Monthly average : 1973 1974 Customis value 5,902 8,159 5,811 8,045 1,078 1,269 1,317 3,728 5,294 5,790 8,416 8,159 1974.. 8,928 1975 1975: Dec... 9,250 9, 103 1976: Jan 8,800 Feb 8,956 Mar 9,394 Apr May_ _ 9, 578 9,716 June July___ 10, 022 9,688 Aug Sept — 9,872 Oct_._ 9,728 9,625 Nov 8,045 8,803 1,269 1,399 1,409 1,510 1,337 1,305 1,521 1,427 1,439 1,563 1,615 1,437 1,598 1,257 1,317 5,294 1,266 5,913 1,222 6,291 1,223 5,971 1,138 6,035 1,165 6,088 1,284 6, 191 1,377 6,443 1,337 6,557 1,374 6,669 1,250 6, 567 1,501 6,507 1,503 6,266 1,501 6,578 8,354 8,010 8,522 9,176 8,941 9,607 9,596 9,182 10, 094 10, 849 10, 446 10, 651 10, 424 10, 531 1 895 Total excludes Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies 2 and equipment under the Military Assistance Program. Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. s Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. * C.i.f. (cost, insurance, and freight) import value at first port of entry in th« United States. Data for 1973 are estimates. Food, Crude bever- mate- Manu- Total facages, rials (c.i.f. 4 tured value) and to- and bacco fuels goods Mer<3handise trade balance Exports Ex(f.a.s.) ports Exports less (f.a.s.) (f.a.s.) less imless ports im- imports (c.i.f.) (cusports toms (f.a.s.) value) 770 1, 120 892 2,653 F.a.s. value 5 892 2,672 827 2,716 825 2,852 872 3,233 889 2,913 1,053 2,885 896 3,492 932 2,759 1,062 3,409 1,068 982 994 943 1,012 3,881 3, 758 3,724 3,760 3,909 3,750 4,684 4,602 4,257 4,582 4,714 4,782 5, 183 5,307 5, 196 5, 338 5, 722 5, 513 5,625 5,544 5,687 112 -257 -195 -229 -841 9,000 -257 852 8,616 671 9, 161 9,880 -132 9,593 -213 10, 301 -734 10, 302 -302 282 9,873 10, 889 -516 11, 650 -917 11,219 -848 11,448 -888 11, 166 -762 11, 282 -1,000 -195 918 728 -73 -141 -651 — 202 396 -377 -827 -758 -779 -696 -906 -841 312 89 -776 -793 -1,345 -908 -295 -1,173 - 1, 628 — 1, 531 - 1, 577 -1,438 -1,657 6,131 9,000 * F.a.s. (free alongside ship) value basis: at U.S. port of exportation for exports and at foreign port of exportation for imports. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the third quarter the balance on current account moved to a deficit of $1.1 billion from a surplus of $0.8 billion in the second quarter. The swing reflected sharp increases in the merchandise trade deficit and U.S. Government grants. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 6 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 6 -4 1968 1969 1971 1970 1972 1973 1974 1975 SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1976 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADV1S8JS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted] Merchandise 12 Period Exports 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1975: I II III— IV___ 36, 42, 43, 49, 71, 98, 107, 27, 25, 26, 27, Imports Net balance Direct expenditures 414 -35,807 607 -4, 856 469 -39,866 2, 603 -4, 855 319 -45, 579 -2, 260 -4, 819 381 -55, 797 -6, 416 -4, 784 410 -70,499 911 -4, 629 310 - 103,679 -5, 369 -5, 035 088 -98,058 9,030 -4, 780 018 -25,570 851 -22,568 562 -24,483 657 -25, 437 Netiiivestment i ncome Milit£iry trans actions Sales 1,528 1,501 1,926 1,163 2,342 2,952 3,897 915 807 978 Net balance Private 3 — 3, 328 -3, 355 -2, 893 -3, 621 -2, 287 -2, 083 -883 -402 — 378 — 115 -1, 317 -1, 185 -1, 093 -1, 185 1, 197 12 26, 836 -28, 510 -1,674 -1, 150 1976:1 !!____ 28, 428 -29, 771 -1,343 -1,219 Ill *_ 29, 581 -32,614 -3, 033 -1,221 1,145 1,073 1,587 —5 -146 1 3 Excludes 3 Adjusted 1,448 3,283 2, 079 2,220 military grants. from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from net investment income and included in other services, net. 36 366 U.S. Government Re- 1,833 977 2, 190 2,938 2, 509 -256 2, 789 -5, 954 3, 188 3, 905 3, 919 3, 586 4, 666 16, 316 mitBaltances, penance sions, on curand other rent uniaclateral count transfers i -2, 994 -2, 017 -3, 294 -356 -3, 701-3, 957 -3, 848-9, 802 -3, 883 22 -7, 184 -3, 598 -4, 620 11, 697 1, 125 1, 146 1, 187 1,205 -1, 179 -1, 146 - 1, 044 -1,251 Net travel Other and trans- servporta- ices, 3 net tion receipts 3,471 156 - 1, 763 3,631 -112 -2, 023 5, 659 -956 -2, 315 6, 208 - 1, 888-3,028 8, 188 — 3, 010 -3, 086 13, 461 -3,234 -3, 107 9,430 -3,423 -2, 503 2, 109 2, 349 2,487 2, 485 -985 -818 -805 -815 -687 -498 -568 -750 3,066 3, 195 3,480 -787 -735 -768 -754 1,212 -396 1,161 -485 1,309 Balance on goods and serv-1 ices 2,608 5,084 4,265 4,357 1, 429 3,938 3,221 3,106 1,058 -1, 118 -60 -920 1,736 816 869 -1,925 - 1, 056 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the third quarter foreign assets in the United States rose $8.5 billion largely due to a sharp increase in liabilities to private foreigners and international institutions reported by U.S. banks. U.S. assets abroad increased $8.9 billion, down nearly $1 billion from the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS WLUONS OF DOLLARS 15 15 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED /\ CHANGE IN FOREIGN ASSETS IN THE U.S., NET 10 -5 -10 -15 1968 1976 1969 SOURCE DEI*XRTMENT OF COMMERCE roUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] I U. 3. assets abroad, ilet [mere*ise/capita • outflow (-)] Forei gn assets in the U. S., net [incr ease/capit al inflow ( + )] Foreign official asssets Period Total U.S. official reserve1 assets Other U.S. U.S. Govern- private ment assets assets 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975__ -8,823 -1, 187 -2,200 -5,436 -6, 032 2,477 -1,589 -6,920 -9, 596 2,348 - 1, 884-10, 060 32 -1,568 -8,708 — 10, 245 -16,434 209 -2, 645-13, 998 — 33, 392 - 1, 434 365 -32, 323 -31, 593 -607 -3,463 -27, 523 1975:1 II III_.__ IV -8, 001 -7, 943 -4,411 -11,238 -325 -29 -342 89 -899 -6,777 -840 -7,074 — 772 -3, 297 -952 -10, 375 Total Total 12, 270 -1,301 -1,552 13, 571 5,923 6,907 7,362 — 984 22, 445 26, 895 27, 405 -4,450 21, 127 10, 705 10, 322 10, 422 18, 519 6, 299 5, 145 12, 220 32, 433 10, 981 10, 257 21, 452 15, 326 6,899 5, 166 8,427 3,402 2,837 2,958 3,907 2,331 1,913 2,708 — 1, 606 -1,977 5,874 2,272 2,771 1976:1 II -10,007 -773 -684 -8, 550 5,396 -9,875 -1,578 -1,009 -7, 288 7,330 III "- -8, 901 -407 -1,454 -7,040 8,471 IV *__ 1 Consists of gcId, special drawing righi s (SDR), convertible eorreneies, a nd the "U .8. reserve j*>sitioninth BlMF. Other Assets of foreign foreign assets official reserve agencies 3,942 4, 105 3, 013 2,460 3,308 1,258 Stati stical disercjpaney U.S. Allocaofficial tions reserve of rri X T Of assets, lotal special (sum of which : net 1 drawing Seasonal (unadthe rights adjust- justed, items (SDR) with ment end of sign discrepperiod) reversed) ancy - 1, 430 -402 867 717 -9,609 710 -1,790 -2, 107 4,557 4, 570 1 16,964 14,487 12, 167 13, 151 14, 378 15, 883 16, 226 3,735 -565 1, 576 4,313 3, 103 1,328 16, 256 -39 16, 242 -1, 517 -2, 561 16, 291 2,258 1,275 16, 226 1,454 3,225 5,458 4,671 1,349 16, 941 1, 729 -76 18, 477 1,485 -2, 829 18, 945 98 18 747 Sources: Depart ment of Coiamerce (Bur eau of Eeon<rniie Analysis) and BepartalentoltheTr easury; 37 UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE POSTAGE AND FEES PAID U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 375 DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS WASHINGTON, D.C. 2O4O2 OFFICIAL BUSINESS First-Class Mail Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures. Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures _ Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income -. Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment ^._.. -.._ Page -., _..~.. -. ..............._.-........-... ..-.-... -..~... 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 _. -........... _.......... ^............... .-..-.....-....... ..-..-..-..-...... 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 -._...._.._ 1", 1C , .... . _ . - - ) - EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs...Nonagrieultural Employment Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries. . Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries .. _ Productivity and Related Data, Private Business Economy PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures ... New Construction _. _... New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates......... „...........-.... -.... _. _. ....._.. Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade.........-. ^.»-. _. _. _ .-..-........-. _ Manufacturers* Shipments, Inventories, and New Orders ..-..-. » .. „ .«-...... -. -..-......... S * 20 21 .~......-. ... 22 23 24 24 25 PRICES Wholesale Prices . _ , Consumer Prices .-. _..-..-........-. _ _. _ Changes in Wholesale Prices Changes in Consumer Prices. Prices Received and Paid by Farmers . _ _. _..-. ^.».. . . MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock Private Liquid Asset Holdings—Nonfinancial Investors Consumer Instalment Credit _._.__._.. Bank Loans, Investments, and Reserves .-. _..~ .-. _._......... Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfuiancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations Interest Rates and Bond Yields , Common Stock Prices and Yields..........-..._ _ ^.. . -.._.._......... , _. , . . _ _. _. _. _. .-. _.......... 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt , Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function.-.. Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis. _.. . . - _.. 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries ^. ..-. ^. ^. ^. -. ^. _. U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports......... ^..-. _.... _. _ _ _. ^............................................ -. _. _. ^. ^. ^.. ^. _. U.S. International Transactions. ......... -.... ^..-. ^. ^..-. ^-. -................. ^.... _.»_. ^.. ^. _. ^. ^. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, TJ.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402 Price 85 cents (single copy). Subscription price: $10.10 per year; $2.55 additional for foreign mailing. 38 U.S. G O V E R N M E N T PRINTING OFFICE: 1977 35 35 36