Full text of Economic Indicators : January 1970
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91st Congress, 2nd Session Economic Indicators January 1970 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1970 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas, Chairman WILLIAM PROXMIRE, Wisconsin, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES RICHARD BOLLING (Missouri) HALE BOGGS (Louisiana) HENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin) MARTHA W. GRIFFITHS (Michigan) WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania) WILLIAM B. WIDNALL (New Jersey) W. E. BROCK 3d (Tennessee) BARBER B. CONABLE, Jr. (New York) CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio) SENATE JOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama) J. W. FULBRIGHT (Arkansas) HERMAN E. TALMADGE (Georgia) STUART SYMINGTON (Missouri) ABRAHAM RIBICOFF (Connecticut) JACOB K. JAVITS (New York) JACK MILLER (Iowa) LEN B. JORDAN (Idaho) CHARLES H. PERCY (Illinois) JOHN R. STARK, Executive Director JAMES W. KNOWLES, Director of Research COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS PAUL W. McCRACKEN, Chairman HENDRIK S. HOUTHAKKER HERBERT STEIN Economic Indicators prepared under supervision of FRANCES M. JAMES [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorize to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at 25 cents a single copy or by subscription at $3.00 per year (foreign, $4.00) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 Subscribers who wish to receive it at an earlier date after release may take advantage of provisions for airmail subscriptions. The domestic airmail subscription price is $6.10 additional per year. The 1967 edition of the Historical and Descriptive Supplement to Economic Indicators, which describes each series and gives annual data for years not shown in the monthly issues, is available at 70 cents a copy from the Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing Office. ii TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING THE NATION'S INCOME, EXPENDITURE, AND SAVING Preliminary estimates indicate that gross national product advanced $10.3 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter, about $73A billion less than in the third quarter. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Persons Government N et receipts Disposable personal income Period Total l 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 v 1968: III.. IV... 1969: I II — III.. TV v 385.3 404. 6 438. 1 473. 2 511. 9 546. 5 590. 0 629. 6 593. 4 604. 3 610. 2 622, 0 639.0 AA7 1 E xpenditur es PerLess: Equals: Personal sonal Less: Less: Tax Interest Total consump- saving Trans- Equals: Total Trans- Equals: and or tion Purpaid and excludfers, fers, nontax interest, expend- dising expend- interest, transfer Net chases saving receipts itures itures interest receipts of goods payand and or and and ments subsubaccruals sidies 2 to fortranssidies 2 services fers eigners 8.6 9. 7 10. 7 12. 0 13. 0 13. 9 15. 0 16. 0 15.2 15.5 15.7 15.9 16. 1 Ifi 9 376. 6 394. 9 427.4 461. 3 498. 9 532. 6 575. 0 613. 6 578. 2 588.8 594. 5 606. 1 622. 9 £20 Q 355. 1 375. 0 401. 2 432. 8 466. 3 492. 3 536. 6 576.0 544. 9 550.7 562. 0 572. 8 579.8 589.2 157, 0 168. 8 174. 1 189. 1 213.3 228.4 264. 2 302. 0 271. 0 279.7 294. 1 302. 0 303. 4 21.6 19. 9 26. 2 28. 4 32. 5 40. 4 38.4 37. 6 33. 2 38. 0 32.5 33. 3 43. 1 41. 6 42. 8 44. 4 46. 7 49. 9 55. 5 62. 8 70. 6 78. 3 72. 0 73. 9 75. 8 77.6 78.9 80. 9 114. 2 124. 3 127. 3 139. 2 157. 9 165. 6 193. 6 223.7 199. 1 205.8 218. 3 224.4 224.4 159.9 166.9 175.4 186. 9 212. 3 242. 9 270. 8 293. 0 274.5 280. 6 285.9 290. 6 296. 0 299. 7 42.8 44 4 46. 7 49. 9 55. 5 62.8 70. 6 78. 3 72. 0 73.9 75. 8 77. 6 78.9 80.9 117. 1 122. 5 128.7 137.0 156. 8 180. 1 200. 3 214. 7 202. 5 206.7 210. 0 212. 9 217. 0 218.9 Surplus or deficit (-), income and product accounts -2.9 1. 8 -1.4 2.2 1. 1 -14. 5 -6. 7 9.0 -3. 5 g 8.3 11.4 7. 4 Gross Statis- national tical product discrepor expendreceipts ancy iture Total income Period 1962_ 1963_ 1964_ 1965_ 1966_ 1967_ 1968_ 1969 1968: III[ IV 1969: I__ II III[ IV V private eigners of or ! retained domestic invest- by perof net earn-3 Equals: investment sons and Exports Less: exports ings Net ment 4 GovernImports exports (~)5 (-) ment 66.3 68.8 76.2 84.7 91.3 93.3 96.7 98.6 99.3 98.3 97.7 98.0 99.7 \ 83. 0 87. 1 94. 0 108. 1 121. 4 116. 0 126. 3 139. 6 125. 2 133. 9 135. 2 137.4 143.3 142.4 — 16. 8 -18. 4 -17.8 — 23. 4 -30. 1 -22. 7 — 29. 6 -41. 0 -26. 0 -35. 7 -37.5 -39. 4 -43.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2. 8 3. 0 2.9 2. 6 3. 1 3. 1 2.4 2. 8 2. 6 2. 7 30. 3 32. 3 37. 1 39.2 43. 4 46. 2 50. 6 55. 4 53.4 50. 6 47. 6 57. 1 57. 8 59. 1 ! Personal income (p. 5) less personal tax and nontax payments (fines, penalties, etc.). 2 Government transfer payments to persons, foreign net transfers by Government, net interest paid by government, and subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises. 3 Undistributed corporate profits, corporate inventory valuation adjustment, capital consumption allowances, and wage accruals less disbursements. Does not include retained earnings of unincorporated business, which are included in disposable personal income. 25. 1 26.4 28.6 32. 3 38. 1 41. 0 48. 1 53. 3 49. 7 49.4 46. 1 55. 5 55. 2 56. 4 5. 1 5. 9 8.5 6. 9 5. 3 5. 2 2. 5 2. 1 3.6 1. 2 1. 5 1. 6 2. 7 2. 6 -2.5 -3. 1 -5.7 -4. 1 -2.4 -2. 2 .3 .6 -.6 1. 9 1. 0 1.2 .0 .1 559. 8 590.8 633. 7 688. 0 750. 9 794. 5 868.2 938. 5 879. 6 895. 9 912. 9 931.3 949.7 0. 5 -. 3 -1. 3 -3. 1 — 1. 0 -1. 0 -2. 5 -6. 2 -3. 3 -3. 4 -4.2 -6.5 -6. 9 560.3 590. 5 632.4 684. 0 749. 9 793. 5 865.7 932. 3 876.4 892. 5 908. 7 924.8 942.8 953. 1 4 Private business investment, purchases of capital goods by private nonprofit institutions, and residential housing. 5 Net foreign investment with sign changed. NOTE.—Corporate profits tax and related items for 1969 reflect repeal of investment tax credit. Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. Source: Department of Commerce. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OR EXPENDITURE Gross national product (seasonally adjusted) increased at a somewhat slower rate in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter—an annual rate of about 4% percent compared with an 8 percent rate. There was a slight decline in physical output in the fourth quarter. BILLIONS. OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,000 1,000 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RAT1S 900 900 aoo 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 GOVERNMENT PURCHASES _OF GOODS AND SERVICES. 200 ,„„„„.... 200 „...••••»»•.., 100 100 NET EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES. 1963 1964 1965 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 1966 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 *_ _ _ 1968: III IV 1969: I II III IV p 1968 1969 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Goveirnment imrehases of good s and Total Personal Gross Implicit Net services congross Total price private exports national gross sump- domestic of goods Federal deflator State tion product national for total investand Total and in 1958 product expend- ment services GNP, 1 Other Total National local defense prices itures 1958= 1002 Billions <3f dollars; quarterlyr data at e easonalby adjuste d annual rates 0. 1 311. 2 475.9 483.7 75.3 46. 0 43.3 101. 6 7. 6 97. 0 53.7 487.7 4.0 503.7 46. 1 44 9 103. 3 99. 6 53. 5 8.6 325. 2 74.8 5.6 497. 2 520. 1 50.2 104. 6 57.4 335. 2 47.8 9.6 71.7 107.6 5. 1 117. 1 560. 3 63. 4 629.8 355. 1 83.0 53.7 105. 8 51.6 11.8 551. 0 5.9 122.5 590. 5 87. 1 64. 2 50. 8 13.5 58. 2 107.2 375.0 581. 1 8.5 128. 7 632. 4 401. 2 50.0 15.2 108.8 65. 2 94.0 63.5 6.9 137.0 684. 9 432. 8 617.8 108. 1 70.1 110.9 66.9 50. 1 16. 8 5.3 156.8 658. 1 749. 9 121.4 466.3 77.8 60.7 17. 1 79.0 113.9 5.2 180. 1 674-6 793. 5 72.4 18.4 492.3 116.0 117. 6 90.7 89.3 2. 5 200. 3 707. 6 865. 7 536.6 126. 3 99. 5 78.0 21.5 100.7 122. 3 2. 1 214. 7 102. 0 932. 3 727.7 576. 0 79. 3 22. 8 112.7 139. 6 128. 1 125.2 712. 8 876.4 544. 9 3.6 202. 5 100. 9 78. 8 22. 1 101. 7 122. 9 1.2 206. 7 101. 9 718. 5 892. 5 133. 9 79. 3 22. 5 104.8 550. 7 124. 2 723. 1 562. 0 908. 7 135. 2 1. 5 210.0 101. 6 79. 0 22.6 108. 5 125.7 137.4 1.6 212. 9 100. 6 726. 7 924. 8 572. 8 78.5 22. 1 112.3 127.3 942. 8 2. 7 579. 8 730. 6 80. 3 22. 9 113.8 143. 3 217. 0 103. 2 129. 0 142. 4 2. 6 218. 9 102. 7 953. 1 589.2 730. 5 116. 2 79. 2 23.5 130. 5 1 This category corresponds closely with budget expenditures for national defense, shown on p. 36. 2 Gross national product in current prices divided by gross national product In 1958 prices. 1967 NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. Source: Department of Commerce. NATIONAL INCOME National income rose 8 percent in 1969 according to preliminary estimates. Ail types of income increased, with the largest percentage gains in farm proprietors' income, employee compensation, and net interest. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 800 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 800 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 CORPORATE PROFITS AND 300 100 300 "INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT PROPRIETORS' AND - RENTAL INCOME - -V '100 NET INTEREST J 1963 1964 L 1965 J L J 1967 1966 L J I L 1969 1968 SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 » 1968: III IV 1969: I II III IV * Total national income 400. 0 414. 5 427. 3 457.7 481. 9 518. 1 564.3 620. 6 654. 0 714. 4 771. 5 724. 1 737. 3 751. 3 765.7 780.6 Compensation of em- 1 ployees 279. 1 294. 2 302. 6 323. 6 341. 0 365.7 393.8 435. 5 467. 4 513. 6 564. 2 519. 8 532. 3 546. 0 558. 2 571. 9 580. 9 Proprietoi"s; income Farm 2 11. 4 12. 0 12. 8 13. 0 13. 1 12.1 14.8 16. 1 14. 7 14.6 16. 1 14.8 14. 4 14.9 16. 4 16.8 16. 3 12 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 4.) Excludes farm profits of corporations engaged in farming and therefore differs from net farm income (including net inventory change) on p. 6 which includes such profits. Business and professional 35. 1 34. 2 35. 6 37. 1 37. 9 40.2 42.4 45. 2 47. 2 49.2 50. 2 49. 3 49.7 49. 7 50. 1 50. 5 50.4 Rental income of per- 15. 6 15. 8 16. 0 16. 7 17.1 18.0 19.0 20. 0 20. 8 21. 2 21. 6 21. 2 21.4 21. 5 21. 6 21.7 21. 8 Net interest 7. 1 8. 4 10. 0 11. 6 13. 8 15.8 18.2 21.4 24.7 28.0 30. 6 28. 4 29. 3 29.8 30. 3 30.9 31. 6 Corporal,e profits and inventory val uation ad justment 3 Total 51.7 49. 9 50. 3 55.7 58. 9 66.3 76. 1 82. 4 79. 2 87.9 88. 7 90. 6 90.3 89. 5 89.2 88.8 Profits Inventory before valuation taxes 8 adjustment 52. 1 49.7 50. 3 55. 4 59. 4 66.8 77.8 84. 2 80.3 91. 1 94. 3 91. 5 94. 5 95. 5 95. 4 92.5 s See Note p. 7. NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. Source: Department of Commerce. -0. 5 .2 -. 1 .3 —.5 -.5 1.7 -1. 8 -1. 1 — 3.2 -5. 6 Q -4. 2 -6. 1 -6.2 -3.7 -6.4 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $2.3 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in December, continuing the pattern of moderate increases evident since late summer. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 800 800 700 700 600 500 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 300 200 100 100 1963 1969 SOURCEs DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 v 1968: N o v _ _ _ Dec 1969: Jan Feb____ Mar Apr May-_. June July___ Aug Sept___ Oct Nov_-_ Dec *>__ Total 1 personal income 416.8 442.6 465. 5 497. 5 538. 9 587. 2 629. 4 687. 9 747. 1 711. 5 716. 0 718. 7 723. 9 730.7 735. 3 740. 0 746. 1 751. 4 757. 5 760. 7 763.7 767.4 769. 7 [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Wage ; Rental Transfer and Other Propriet DFS income income Divi- Personal salary labor 2 Business interest paydends of disburseincome Farm and pro- persons income ments l ments fessional 32.4 12.8 16.0 12.7 35.6 13.8 25. 0 278. 1 15.2 33.3 13.0 37.1 27.7 296. 1 13.9 16.7 13. 1 16. 5 31.4 37. 9 35. 3 311. 1 14.9 17. 1 12. 1 333. 7 17.8 34. 9 36. 7 16. 6 40. 2 18. 0 18.7 38.7 39.9 358. 9 14.8 42.4 19.0 19.8 394. 5 44. 1 16. 1 45. 2 20. 0 20. 7 43.6 20.8 22. 1 21. 5 423. 5 47.2 52. 0 20. 8 14,7 48. 3 24. 2 14. 6 54. 1 465. 0 49. 2 23. 1 59. 2 21. 2 16. 1 26. 2 50. 2 21. 6 24. 6 509. 8 59. 3 65. 5 482. 2 14. 3 21. 4 25. 0 49. 7 24. 0 56.7 61. 5 14. 4 21. 4 485. 8 25. 1 23. 6 62. 1 49. 8 57. 3 21. 4 489. 3 14.5 57.4 25. 3 49. 5 23. 6 63. 0 492. 6 14.9 21. 5 25. 5 49. 8 23. 8 57.6 63. 5 24. 1 497. 9 21. 5 25. 6 15. 3 49. 7 57. 9 64. 3 500. 8 49. 8 24. 2 25. 8 15. 8 21. 5 64.7 58. 3 21. 6 503. 8 25. 9 16. 4 24. 3 50. 1 64.9 58. 8 59.2 50.4 16. 9 508. 5 26. 1 21. 6 24. 5 65. 2 1G 8 512. 8 26. 3 21.7 24. 6 50. 5 59. 5 65. 7 , % 517.9 26. 4 16.8 21.7 24. 8 59. 8 50. 5 66. 1 26. 6 16. 8 519. 9 21.7 25. 1 60. 2 66.4 50. 5 522. 2 16. 7 26. 8 21. 8 25. 3 60. 6 66. 7 50. 6 26. 9 50. 4 21. 8 61. 1 525. 1 16. 3 67. 2 25. 4 27. 1 527. 2 50. 3 21. 9 61. 6 15. 9 25. 0 67.7 1 Compensation ol employees (see p. 3) excluding employer contributions for social insurance and wage accruals less disbursements. 2 Employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; compensation for injuries; directors' fees; military reserve pay; and a few other minor items. 4 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Less: Personal con- Nonagritributions cultural for social personal3 insurance income 400.0 9.6 425.5 10.3 448. 1 11.8 480. 9 12.5 519.5 13.4 17.7 566. 3 20. 6 609. 7 22. 6 667. 9 26. 2 725. 1 691. 5 23. 2 23. 4 695. 9 25. 3 698. 5 25.3 703. 1 709.5 25. 6 25. 7 713. 5 717. 7 25. 8 723.4 26. 1 26. 4 728. 8 26.6 734. 9 26. 7 738. 1 26.9 741.3 26.9 745. 1 27. 1 747. 7 3 Personal income exclusive of net income of unincorporated farm enterprises, farm wages, agricultural net interest, and net dividends paid by agricultural corporations. NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. Source: Department of Commerce. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME disposable income rose $8 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter after a very large rise in the third quarter. With personal outlays up $91A billion, the saving rate edged down. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 700 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 700 600 1963 i 1968 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Less : ; Personal Per| sonal tax and ! income i nontax i1 payments COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Per cap>ita disL ess: Perso nal outlajfS posable personal Equals: Persor lal consuraption Equals: iiiccmie Disex penditure s 2 Personal Total posable saving Current Nonpersonal personall Durable 1958 income outlays durable Services prices prices goods goods 1961__ _ _ _ ! 1962 ! 1963 i ; 1964 1965 j 1966 _ _ J 1967. _ _ _ ! 1968 i 1969 * ! i 1968: IIIJ IV. | 416. 8 442.6 465. 5 497. 5 538.9 587. 2 629. 4 687. 9 747. 1 52.4 57.4 60. 9 59. 4 65.7 75. 4 82. 9 97. 9 117. 5 364. 4 385.3 404. 6 438. 1 473.2 511. 9 546. 5 590. 0 629. 6 696. 1 711. 2 102. 6 107. 0 593. 4 604. 3 Billions of dollars 44.2 343. 3 135. 1 155. 9 143.0 363.7 49. 5 162.6 152. 4 384. 7 168. 6 53. 9 59. 2 178. 7 163. 3 411. 9 66.3 191. 1 175.5 444.8 206. 9 479. 3 188. 6 70. 8 204. 2 73. 0 215. 1 506. 2 230. 6 222. 8 83. 3 551. 6 242. 5 592. 0 243. 8 89. 6 Seast anally adjiisted anni lal rates 225. 8 560. 2 233. 3 85. 8 234. 3 230. 1 566. 2 86. 3 1969: !___; II. J III.j IV *\ 724. 4 740.5 756.5 766. 9 114. 2 118.5 117.5 119. 8 610. 2 622. 0 639.0 647. 1 577.7 588.8 596.0 605. 5 88. 4 90.6 89. 8 89. 6 238. 6 242. 1 245. 1 249. 4 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers, and personal transfer payments to foreigners. 2 See p. 2 for total personal consumption expenditures. s Includes armed forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1; quarterly data are for middle of period, interpolated from monthly data. 1969 235. 0 240. 1 244. 9 250. 2 Saving as percent of disposable personal 1 Population (thou-3 sands) (percent) Dol lars 183, 756 186, 656 189,417 192, 120 194, 592 196, 907 199, 114 201, 152 203, 216 21.2 21.6 19. 9 26. 2 28.4 32. 5 40. 4 38. 4 37. 6 1, 983 2,064 2,136 2, 280 2, 432 2, 599 2, 745 2, 933 3, 098 1, 909 1, 968 2,013 2, 123 2, 235 2, 331 2, 399 2, 474 2, 507 5.8 5.6 33. 2 1 1I 38.0 2, 946 2, 991 2,477 2,485 5. 6 6. 3 201, 450 202, 015 2, 2, 2, 2, 5.3 5. 3 202, 202, 203, 204, 3, 014 32.5 33.3 i 3, 065 43. 1 ! 3, 140 41. 6 1 3, 171 4. 9 6. 0 6.0 6. 4 7. 4 6. 5 6.0 i 482 494 526 521 6.7 6.4 NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. Source: Department of Commerce. 472 964 507 093 FARM INCOME According to preliminary estimates, net farm income excluding inventory change (seasonally adjusted) declined abou 2 percent in the fourth quarter. Including inventory change there was a decline of 3 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 50 50 REALIZED GROSS FARM INCOME \ 40 40 30 30 NET FARM INCOME . INCLUDING NET INVENTORY. CHANGE 20 20 \ 10 J 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCEs DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Personal rincome re ceived by total 1 arm popi.ilation ] neome re ceived fro m farming Net t o farm oper ators Realizeid gross Period 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969" 1968: III IV From all sources 19.7 20.4 20.6 20.6 23.6 24. 9 23. 9 24,9 27. 1 From From farm nonfarm sources sources 12.2 12.3 12.1 11.3 13.5 14. 4 13. 0 13. 1 14. 5 7. 5 8.2 8.5 9.3 10.0 10. 5 10. 9 11. 8 12. 6 Net inc ome per farm incl ruding net inventor} change 3 ProducCash tion ex- Exclud- Includreceipts penses ingnetm- ing net in- Current 1957-59 from Total i ventory ventory2 prices prices 4 marketchange chance ings Billions c)f dollars Dol lars 3, 399 12.6 27. 1 39.8 13.0 3,332 35. 1 13.2 41.3 3,482 3, 586 36.4 28.6 12.6 13.2 29.7 42.3 12.6 3,708 37.4 3,565 37.2 3, 564 42.6 12.3 29.5 13.1 3, 394 44.9 4,487 30.9 14.0 15.0 39.3 4,193 16. 3 16. 3 33. 4 49. 7 5, 019 43. 3 4,563 14. 2 42. 7 34. 8 14, 7 49. 0 4,683 4, 144 4, 805 14. 7 14. 8 44. 4 36. 3 51. 1 4, 107 54. 6 16. 0 16. 2 47. 4 5,468 4, 446 38. 6 Seascmally adjiisted anni tal rates 14. 9 15. 3 4, 140 51. 8 -i, 880 36. 5 45. 0 14. 7 14. 5 4, 750 37. 2 51. 9 45. 0 3,990 1969: I II III IV » _ 1 Cash receipts from marketings, Government payments, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year. Also, see footnote 2, p. 3. 8 Based on Census of Agriculture definition of a farm. The number of farms is held constant within a year. L 1969 1968 52. 9 55. 1 55. 3 55. 1 46. 0 48. 2 48. 0 47. 5 37. 9 38.8 38. 8 38. 9 15. 0 16. 3 16. 5 16. 2 15. 0 16. 5 16. 9 16. 4 5, 050 5, 550 5, 690 5,520 4, 170 4, 510 4,630 4,420 * Income in current prices divided by the index of prices paid by farmers for family living items on a 1957-59 base. NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. Source: Department of Agriculture. CORPORATE PROFITS Profits before faxes and including inventory valuation adjustment (seasonally adjusted) showed another dip in the third quarter and were about $2 billion below a year earlier. Compared with a year earlier, before tax profits excluding inventory valuation adjustment were $1 billion higher, while after tax profits were slightly lower. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 100 40 20 20 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Corj>orate pr ofits (befc>re taxes) and inveritory valuation adjustmei it TransM anufactui •ing portation comNonAll Durable durable muniAll indusgoods cation s, other * goods tries Total indusand indus- public tries tries utilities 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966__ _ _ _ 1967 1968_ _ _ 1969 * 50. 3 55. 7 58. 9 66.3 76. 1 82. 4 79. 2 87.9 88. 7 23.3 26. 6 28.8 32.7 39. 3 42. 6 39. 0 44.4 44. 0 11. 4 14. 1 15.8 17.8 22. 8 24. 0 20. 9 24. 5 23. 7 11. 9 12. 5 13.0 14.9 16. 6 18. 6 18. 1 19. 9 20. 2 1968: I I I _ _ IV___ 90. 6 90. 3 45. 4 46. 2 25. 0 25.8 1969: I II— 89.5 89.2 88. 8 45. 1 44. 9 43. 8 24. 7 23. 9 23. 8 III__ IV * 1 1 Includes Includes J Corpo- Corporate rate tax profits before liabil- Total taxes ity Corporate capital conDiviUndend distrib- sumption uted payments profits allow-2 ances Profits plus capital consumption allow-3 an ces 10. 1 11. 1 11. 9 10. 8 11.6 11. 9 19. 1 20. 5 20. 6 23.5 25. 6 27. 9 29.4 31. 9 32. 9 50. 3 55. 4 59.4 66.8 77.8 84. 2 80. 3 91. 1 94. 3 23. 1 24. 2 26. 3 28.3 31. 3 34. 3 33. 0 41. 3 43. 5 27. 2 31.2 33. 1 38.4 46. 5 49. 9 47. 3 49. 8 50. 8 13. 8 15. 2 16.5 17.8 19.8 20. 8 21.5 23. 1 24.6 13. 5 16. 0 16. 6 20.6 26. 7 29. 1 25. 9 26.7 26. 3 26. 2 30. 1 31.8 33.9 36. 4 39. 5 42. 6 45. 9 49. 1 53. 5 61. 3 64. 8 72.3 82.9 89. 5 90. 0 95. 7 99. 9 20. 4 20. 4 12. 0 11. 6 33. 1 32. 6 91. 5 94. 5 41. 4 42. 9 50. 0 51. 6 23. 6 23. 8 26. 5 27. 8 46. 2 46. 7 96. 3 98.4 20. 3 21.0 20. 0 11. 8 11. 7 11. 9 32. 6 32.6 33. 1 95. 5 95.4 92. 5 43. 9 44. 1 42. 8 51.7 51. 3 49. 7 23. 8 24. 3 24. 9 25. 2 27. 9 27.0 24.9 47.7 48.6 49. 6 50. 5 7.9 8. 5 9.5 1 nil other industries and financial institutions. depreciation and accidental damages. Corporate pro/its after taxes plus corporate capital consumption allowances. 39-GSO 0 Cor] Dorate pi*ofits a fter taxciS 99.4 100.0 99.3 NOTE.—Corporate profits tax and related items for 1969 reflect repeal of investment tax credit. Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. Source: Department of Commerce. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT Gross private domestic investment (seasonally adjusted) edged down in the fourth quarter as a decline in the rate inventory accumulation more than offset a rise in business fixed investment. BILLKDNS OF DOLLARS 160 BILLIONS OF DOC LARS 160 SEASOrslALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1/f A G *OSS PRIVATE DOM ESTIC 1OA ^^ r^1 inn ./-/I 100 on on ^^ PRODUCERS' [DURABLE EQUIPMEN r 60 ^^\ *>«•**"* 4U "" -—"""" Li ^ pr^ 20 »•-"""* 60 u— = NONRESIDE NTIAL STRUCTURES RESIDE NTIAL STRUCTURES | *, ••Ml ^ ^f^ •• •• -, 40 U=s=^ ;' t**%^^'**X / 'N V S V^t-»»** 20 .^-^v s ' [V 'T-^'-** X INVENTORIES 0 1 1 1 ! 1 1963 SOURCE: ! 1964 1 ! ! 1 1965 I 0' 1 1 1966 1 1 ! ! ! ! 1968 1967 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1 ! 1969 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Fixed imvestment T> ' ^ Total gross private domestic investment Total IV 9 75.3 74.8 71. 7 83. 0 87. 1 94. 0 108. 1 121. 4 116. 0 126. 3 139. 6 125. 2 133. 9 135. 2 137. 4 143. 3 142. 4 Total 70.5 71.3 69. 7 77. 0 81. 3 88. 2 98. 5 106. 6 108.6 119. 0 131. 5 118. 0 123. 4 128. 6 130. 5 132.5 134. 5 45. 1 48. 4 47.0 51. 7 54. 3 61. 1 71. 3 81. 6 83.7 88. 8 99. 3 88. 1 91. 5 95.3 97. 8 101. 1 103. 0 NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. 8 Produce rs' durable equ ipment Struc tures Total 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 9 1968: III IV 1969: I II III. _ Resid ential struc tures N<president ial 16. 7 18. 1 18. 4 19. 2 19.5 21.2 25. 5 28. 5 27. 9 29.3 33. 4 29. 0 30. 1 32.3 32. 1 34.7 34. 4 Nonfarm Total 15.9 17. 4 17.7 18.5 18. 8 20.5 24.9 27.8 27. 2 28. 6 32. 6 28. 3 29. 3 31.6 31.4 34. 0 33. 6 28.4 30.3 28. 6 32.5 34.8 39. 9 45. 8 53. 1 55.7 59.5 65. 9 59. 1 61. 4 63.0 65.7 66.4 68. 6 Nonfarm 25.4 27.7 25.8 29.4 31. 2 36.3 41. 6 48.4 50.9 54. 6 61. 4 54. 3 56. 7 58. 7 61.0 62.4 63. 6 Total 25. 5 22.8 22.6 25. 3 27.0 27. 1 27. 2 25. 0 25.0 30.2 32. 2 29. 9 31. 9 33.3 32.7 31.4 31. 6 Source: Department of Commerce. Nonfarm 24.8 22. 2 22. 0 24. 8 26. 4 26. 6 26. 7 24. 5 24.4 29.6 31.7 29. 4 31.4 32. 8 32. 2 30. 9 31. 0 Change in business inv entories Total Nonfarm 5. 8 9. 6 14. 8 4. 8 3. 3 1. 7 5. 3 5. 1 6. 4 8. 6 15. 0 7. 3 7. 4 4.8 3.6 2. 0 6. 0 5.9 7.4 8.0 7.2 6.8 7.8 7.5 10. 5 6. 6 6. 9 10.7 10. 7 6. 6 6. 7 10.3 7.8 7.6 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Business expenditures for new plant and equipment rose 11 percent from 1968 to 1969, accordins to preliminary estimates. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 80 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 70 70 TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT 60 50 50 40 40 NONMANUFACTURING „„... *"' 30 30 1 20 * MANUFACTURING 20 10 10 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1970 1969 SOURCESi SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS I Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period M anufacturi]Qg Total Trans po rtation l Total Durable Nonduragoods ble goods Railroads Other Public utilities Commercial and other 2 Mining 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 »_ 37. 94 31. 89 33. 55 36. 75 35. 91 38.39 40. 77 46.97 54. 42 63.51 65.47 67.76 75. 30 16.51 12. 38 12.77 15. 09 14. 33 15. 06 16. 22 19. 34 23.44 28. 20 28. 51 28.37 31. 74 7.84 5. 61 5. 81 7. 23 6. 31 6. 79 7. 53 9. 28 11. 50 14. 06 14. 06 14. 12 15. 99 8. 68 6. 77 6. 95 7.85 8. 02 8.26 8.70 10. 07 11.94 14. 14 14.45 14. 25 15. 74 1.69 1.43 1. 36 1. 30 1. 29 1.40 1. 27 1. 34 1.46 1.62 1. 65 1. 63 1. 87 1. 58 . 86 1. 02 1. 16 . 82 1.02 1. 26 1. 65 1. 99 2. 37 1. 86 1. 45 1. 83 1.71 1.43 2. 10 1. 97 1. 96 2. 17 1.98 2. 52 2.91 3. 39 3. 77 4. 15 4.20 5. 67 5. 52 5. 14 5. 24 5. 00 4. 90 4.98 5. 49 6. 13 7.43 8. 74 10. 20 11. 56 10. 79 10. 27 11. 16 11. 99 12.52 13. 84 15.06 16.63 18.49 20. 50 20.94 21.97 24. 10 1968: I_ IV III 68.09 66. 29 67.77 69. 05 28. 02 27.84 28. 86 28. 70 14. 11 13. 51 14.47 14. 39 13.91 14.33 14. 40 14. 31 1. 80 1. 66 1. 57 1. 52 1. 68 1. 49 1. 29 1.34 4. 31 3. 47 4. 34 4. 62 10.08 10. 24 9. 82 10. 63 22.20 21.59 21.89 22.24 1969: I II III 72.52 73.94 77. 84 29.99 31. 16 33.05 15.47 15.98 16. 53 14. 52 15. 18 16. 52 1. 83 1. 88 1. 89 1. 68 1. 76 2. 06 4. 76 3. 88 3.88 11. 52 11. 68 11. 48 22. 74 23. 59 25.49 II 1 Excludes agricultural business; real estate operators; medical, legal, educational, and cultural service; and nonprofit organizations. 2 Commercial and other includes trade, service, finance, communications, and construction. NOTE.—Data has been revised beginning 1947. For detail, see Survey of Current Business, January 1970. The expectations will be published in the February issue. Annual total is the sum of unadjusted expenditures; it does not necessarily coincide \vi(h the average of seasonally adjusted figures. These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE The civilian labor force (seasonally adjusted) increased by 294,000 in December. Employment rose by 282,000; unemployment rose by 1 2,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 90 85 - PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE INIEMPL C YMBsllr waE H- Tl PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE j E/£ Oh4A m( AC Jl SIID „ *r. :"*"": 19t >3 VH 4 9<!>5 1 ] 96 6 *16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Period 1965___ 1966___ 1967___ 1968___ 1969___ 1968: Nov. Dec_. 1969: Jan__ Feb.. Mar_ Apr_ Mav_ JuneJulyAug_ Sept_ Oct_ Nov. Dec. Total labor force (including armed forces) 77, 178 78, 893 80, 793 82, 272 84, 239 J i9(39 1?e>8 196 7 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Civilisin employ ment Total labor force Non- Unem(includployagning Total ment cularmed tural forces) Thousands of jjersons 16 71, 088 66, 726 3,366 77, 178 72, 895 68, 915 2,875 78, 893 74, 372 70, 527 2,975 80, 793 75, 920 72, 103 2,817 82, 272 77, 902 74, 296 2,831 84, 239 Unadji isted Civili*in employment Civilian labor force Total Agricultural years of age and o ver 74, 455 71, 088 4,361 75, 770 72, 895 3,979 77, 347 74, 372 3,844 78, 737 75, 920 3, 817 80, 733 77, 902 3,606 tSeasonally adjusted Nonagricultural Unemp] oyment rate (pe rcent of Unem- civilia n labor foi ce) ployment Unad- Seasonadjusted ally justed Labor force participation rate, unadjusted i Percent 66, 726 68, 915 70, 527 72, 103 74, 296 3,366 2,875 2,975 2,817 2, 831 3. 5 59.7 60. 1 60.6 60.7 61. 1 4. 5 3.8 3.8 3.6 76, 609 76, 700 73, 001 73, 421 2, 577 2,419 82, 559 82, 868 79, 042 79, 368 76, 388 76, 765 3, 706 3,842 72, 682 72, 923 2, 654 2, 603 3. 3 3. 1 3.4 60.6 60. 5 81, 711 75, 358 82, 579 76, 181 82, 770 76, 520 83, 137 77, 079 83, 085 77, 264 85, 880 78, 956 86, 318 79, 616 86, 046 79, 646 84, 527 78, 026 85, 038 78, 671 84, 920 78, 716 84, 856 78, 788 72, 192 72, 896 73, 193 73, 471 73, 370 74, 589 75, 460 75, 669 74, 397 75, 110 75, 395 75, 805 2, 876 2,923 2, 746 2,542 2, 299 3,400 3, 182 2, 869 2, 958 2,839 2, 710 2, 628 83, 351 83, 831 88, 999 83, 966 83, 593 83, 957 84, 277 84, 584 84, 902 85, 014 84, 788 85, 029 79, 874 80, 356 80, 495 80, 450 80, 071 80, 433 80, 756 81, 054 81, 359 81, 486 81, 295 81, 589 77, 229 77, 729 77, 767 77, 605 77, 265 77, 671 77, 874 78, 187 78, 127 78, 325 78, 497 78, 779 3,752 3,881 3, 732 3,664 3, 805 3, 705 3,551 3,634 3,458 3,332 3,429 3,505 73, 477 73, 848 74, 035 73, 941 73, 460 73, 966 74, 323 74, 558 74, 669 74, 993 75, 068 75, 274 2,645 2,627 2, 728 2,845 2,806 2, 762 2,882 2, 867 3, 282 3, 161 2, 798 2,810 3.7 3.7 3.5 0 O. 0 O. 59. 7 60. 3 60.4 60. 5 60.4 62. 4 62.6 62.3 61. 1 61.4 61. 2 6L 1 X2, 702 82, 618 1 Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population. NOTE.—Beginning 1960, data include Alaska and Hawaii. 10 Source: Department of Labor. 3. 2 2. 9 4. 1 3. 8 3.5 3. 7 3.5 3. 3 3.2 3. 3 <Z? O 0 O 8.4 3.5 3.5 8.4 3. 6 S.5 4*0 Q t/ Q O. 0 / o. & 4i 3. 4 SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND PART-TIME EMPLOYMENT The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in December remained at 3.4 percent. A slight increase in the unemployment rate occurred for married men. PERCENT 110 PERCENT 10 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED / \ UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS I UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, EXPERIENCED WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, MARRIED MEN 0 I » M I 1I 1f I I I I ! I 1 I I I 1I I 1 1963 ! I I I I I 11! 1 1 1964 1965 i i i i I i i i i i 1966 i i i i i I i i i i i 1967 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Persons at work in nonagn cultural IE idustries by hours worked p>er week 2 Urider 35 hours Experi- Married Labor force enced All time lost l and men workers wage (wife salary workers present) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 4,5 3.8 3.8 3.6 3. 5 1968: Nov Dec__ 1969: Jan. Feb Mar. Apr_ May June July_ Aug- _ _ Sept Get _ Nov Dec 3.4 3.3 3. 3 3.3 3. 4 3.5 3.5 3. 4 3.6 3. 5 4.0 3.9 3.4 3. 4 Per cent 4.3 3. 5 3.6 3.4 2.4 1. 9 1. 8 1.6 a3 1. 5 Seasonall y adjusted 3.2 1.6 3.1 1.4 3. 1 1. 4 3. 0 1. 4 1. 4 3. 1 3. 2 1. 5 1. 5 3. 1 3. 2 1.5 3.5 1. 6 3. 5 1. 5 3. 8 1. 7 1. 7 3.6 3. 3 1. 5 3. 3 1. 6 Over 40 hours 5.0 4.2 4. 2 4.0 3.9 20, 21, 20, 20, 20, 3.8 3.6 3. 6 3.6 3. 7 3. 7 3. 5 3.9 4. 1 4. 1 4. 4 4. 4 4. 0 3.8 20, 472 21, 810 20, 463 19, 519 21, 155 20, 128 21, 185 20, 914 19, 352 20, 045 21, 651 21, 370 20, 097 21, 415 1 Man-hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as a percent of potentially available labor force man-hours. 2 Differs from total nonagricultural employment (p. 10), which includes persons with jobs but not at work for such reasons as vacation, illness, bad weather, and industrial disputes. 3 Includes persons who worked part-time because of slack work, material shortages or repairs, new job started, or job terminated. I 1 I I I I I I ! I I 1969 COUNCIt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Uneniploymen : rate (percent of civilisin labor for ce in grou P) Period I I M I I I 1111 1968 788 334 920 600 608 35-40 hours Part-ti me for economi e reasons Part-ti me for economi c reasons Total Usually Usually Usually Usually partfullpartfulltime 4 time 3 time 4 time * Thousan ds of pers ons 16 yejsirs of age and over 30, 768 11, 818 1,031 897 32, 088 12, 034 871 793 32, 616 13, 290 1,060 853 32, 658 14, 785 895 820 34, 201 15, 210 955 855 1Jnadjustec 1 Seasonall y adjusted 814 30, 101 19, 844 852 753 859 33, 898 14, 987 872 835 723 801 34, 316 14, 400 707 898 800 805 32, 002 18, 433 900 730 870 768 34, 757 14, 689 754 977 979 822 34, 370 15, 650 690 823 858 812 34, 834 14, 620 806 703 862 826 35, 107 13, 42C 1, 143 1,078 1, 030 844 862 33, 545 12, 533 1,294 881 914 34, 112 12, 222 1,235 1,088 1,065 936 35, 350 13, 668 1,089 798 1, 091 891 34, 173 16, 462 790 1, 012 950 919 742 31, 868 20, 633 937 981 846 5 8 35, 974 15, 785 986 733 812 1, 029 4 Primarily includes persons who could find only part-tune work. *Average hours worked: usually full-time, 23.5; usually part-time, NOTE.—See Note, p. 10. Source: Department of Labor. 11 UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAM In December, insured unemployment under State programs averaged 206/000 higher than a year earlier. The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained at 2.3 percent. MILLIONS OF PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS WEEKLY INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT (STATE PROGRAMS) JAN. MAR. APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR A 11 progranis Period 1966 1967 _ 1968 _ 1969 * 1968: Nov. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Dec _ _. __ _ 1969: Jan Feb _ Mar Apr May _ _ _ _ June_ _ July. _ ._ _ _ Aug Sept Oct___ _ Nov vp Dec Week ended: 1969: Dec 2 0 _ _ _ __ 27 1970: Jan 3_ 10 ^ 17 p 12 St£ite Insured Total unem- benefits Insured Covered ploypaid unememploy- ment (milploy(weekly ment lions ment averof dolage) lars) Thou sands 54, 739 1, 129 "56, 342 1, 270 *57, 969 1, 187 1, 175 985 "58, 865 1,253 "59, 249 1, 585 1,551 1,385 1,163 970 912 1, 089 1,016 903 930 1, 106 1, 449 1, 360 1, 627 1, 892 1,942 1, 890. 9 2, 220. 0 2, 191. 3 2, 265. 0 134.8 185. 4 264. 6 250.8 242. 6 214. 9 164. 9 145. 7 171. 8 169.7 148. 3 153.8 147. 7 208. 5 Initial claims Exhaustions Weekly iiverage, t lousands 203 1, 061 15 17 226 1,205 201 16 1,111 197 15 1,098 913 1, 172 1,491 1,459 1,300 1, 090 906 852 1, 021 948 840 864 1, 030 1,378 1, 273 1, 534 1 1, 788 1 1, 835 1 Not charted. NOTE.—For definitions and coverage, see the 1967 Supplement to Economic indicators. Data for Alaska and Hawaii included and for Puerto Rico since 1963. DEC OCT. 189 261 275 219 173 167 144 162 246 172 146 167 213 289 289 320 345 429 387 13 14 16 17 17 19 17 17 15 14 13 13 12 13 progra ms Benefit ,s paid Insurec ; unemploymen t as percent of covered Total Average emplo yment (milweekly check Season- lions of Unad- ally dollars) (dollars) adjusted justed Per cent 2.3 2. 5 2.2 2.2 1.8 2. 3 3. 0 2. 9 2. 6 2. 2 2. 1 2. 1 2, 1 2. 1 2. 1 2. 0 1.8 2.0 1. 7 2. 1 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 2.2 2. 0 2. 7 2. 5 3. 0 3. 5 3.5 Source: Department of Labor. q> & ff> &. 2.8 2. 3 1,771.3 2, 101. 0 2, 031. 9 2, 099. 5 122. 5 170. 3 246. 1 234. 2 226. 5 200. 1 153. 0 135. 0 159. 2 156.7 136.2 140. 9 134. 7 194. 8 39.75 41. 25 43.43 46. 10 44.72 45. 34 46. 16 46. 80 46. 70 46. 03 45. 14 44.88 45. 30 46. 16 45.70 46. 17 46. 91 47. 25 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural payroll employment (seasonally adjusted) decreased in December by 14,000. The largest decreases were in wholesale and retail trade (38,000), durable goods manufacturing (26,000), and contract construction (14,000). Increases were concentrated mainly in State and local government (39,000) and in services (23,000). MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 72! 16 ( - (ENLARGED SCALE) T x"^ *^ ^^ -*-***\ ^^^ 68 64 - r-"T" - WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE S**^ ALL NONAGRICULTU RAL ESTABLISHMENTS — — 12 SERVICES 60 _ 10 36 - ^ **—""""'"" r _ --•-- 32 -*r« / _ NONMANUFA CTURING (PRIVAT E) 12 - - DURABLE MANUFACTURING - 10 24 __ NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING MANUFACTURING =1=, 20 ,,li)iltiniUie<f!!H!i!lJttt,lt 16 _ . \ 12 ! ! ! 1 ! ! 1 1 ! Al..\ Y . ! , , 1 1 , 1 1 , , 1966 1967 CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION - — GOVERNMENT ! ! t 1 1 1 I ! ! ! ! ! ! I ! ! 1 I 1 1 1U 1968 1969 ^ 1966 1967 SOURCEi DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1968 1969 COUNCIt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 seasonally adjusted] Manufac turing (iprivate) Period Total Total 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969" 1968: Nov.. Dec.. 1969: Jan.. Feb.. MarApr.. May. June. July. Aug. Sept. Oct.. Nov v Dec". 58, 331 60, 815 63, 955 65, 857 67, 860 70, 139 68, 664 68, 875 69, 199 69, 487 69, 710 69, 789 70, 013 70, 300 70, 247 70, 500 70, 390 70, 651 70, 653 70, 639 17, 274 18, 062 19, 214 19, 447 19, 768 20, 121 19, 897 19, 958 19, 999 20, 061 20, 122 20, 111 20, 118 20, 198 20, 164 20, 334 20, 197 20, 156 20, 018 19, 988 NonDurable durable goods goods 9, 816 10, 406 11, 284 11, 439 11, 624 11, 881 11, 700 11, 744 11,819 11, 839 11, 881 11, 868 11, 874 11, 931 11,912 12, 081 11, 965 11, 932 11, 758 11, 732 7,458 7, 656 7,930 8,008 8, 144 8, 240 8, 197 8, 214 8,180 8, 222 8, 241 8, 243 8, 244 8, 267 8, 252 8,253 8, 232 8, 224 8, 260 8, 256 N onmanu factoring 5 (private) Total 31, 461 32, 679 33, 950 35, 012 36, 246 37, 791 36, 818 36, 885 37, 119 37, 304 37, 456 37, 534 37, 688 37, 843 37, 852 37, 928 37, 983 38, 177 38, 278 38, 263 r* Con- Transtract portation Mining conand strue- public tion utilities 634 3, 050 3,951 632 3, 186 4,036 627 3, 275 4, 151 613 3, 208 4,261 610 3, 267 4, 313 628 3,410 4,449 622 3,313 4,352 623 3, 330 4, 360 626 3, 338 4, 353 628 3, 366 4, 373 626 3,374 4,399 624 3, 363 4,439 622 3, 407 4,444 622 3,466 4,467 629 3,434 4,483 631 3,410 4,484 631 3,420 4,480 631 3,418 4,480 632 3,460 4,488 636 3,446 4,493 des nil full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establisl incuts who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which it chides the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, do nestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this tab » not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian abor force,, shown on p.. 10,, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they Gover ament | Finance, W holeinsursale ance, Services Federal and and retail real trade estate 12, 160 2, 957 8,709 2,348 12, 716 3,023 9,087 2,378 13, 245 3, 100 9,551 2,564 13, 606 3, 225 10, 099 2,719 14, 081 3,383 10, 592 2,737 14, 644 3,558 11, 102 2,756 14, 291 3,453 10, 787 2,709 14, 271 3,463 10, 838 2,724 14, 412 3,490 10, 900 2,760 14, 468 3,502 10, 967 2,767 14, 508 3,515 11, 034 2,759 14, 533 3,531 11, 044 2,758 14, 609 3, 541 11, 065 2,754 14, 665 3, 557 11, 066 2, 790 14, 671 3, 568 11, 067 2,777 14, 702 3,581 11, 120 2, 752 14, 716 3,586 11, 150 2, 749 14, 809 3,595 11, 244 2,729 14, 823 3,610 11, 265 2,721 14, 785 3, 615 11, 288 2,713 T-JfT-I State and local 7,248 7,696 8,227 8, 679 9, 109 9,471 9, 240 9, 308 9, 321 9, 355 9,373 9,386 9,453 9,469 9,454 9,486 9,461 9,589 9,636 9,675 are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. NOTE.—Beginning 1959, data include Alaska and Hawaii. Source: Department of Labor. 13 WEEKLY HOURS OF WORK - SELECTED INDUSTRIES The average workweek for private nonfarm production workers eased slightly in December to 37.5 hours (seasonal!;, adjusted). Hours decreased in retail trade, were unchanged in contract construction, and increased in manufacturing. HOURS PER WEEK (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) HOURS PER WEEK {SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 46 A6 TOTAL NOhslAGRICULTUR/a PRIVATE MANUFACTURING 44 44 42 42 Aft 40 3$ ^ -— —^• *- *•*•" "%• •*> 38 *-* 'o/ 34 36 1 1 11 11 1 1 1 11 Al I 1 I ! I 1 1 1 1 1 ¥ i i r i i 1 i i i ii 1967 1966 1968 1 I! 1 t 1 t t i t tH 1969 34 1966 " 41 1967 1968 1969 1967 1968 1969 42 RETAIL TRADE CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION 40 38 38 36 34 34 32 32 30 30 1966 1967 1968 1969 ^— 1966 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE, DEPARTMENT Of lAftOR 1 [Average hours per week ] Total nonagricultural private 2 Period Manufacturing Contract construe- Retail trade 3 Total nonagricultural private - 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 196(5 1967 196S 1969" 38. 6 38. 6 38. 7 38. 8 38. 7 38. 8 38. 6 38. 0 37. 8 37. 7 39. 7 39. 8 40. 4 40. 5 40. 7 41. 2 41. 3 40. 6 40. 7 40. 6 36. 7 36. 9 37. 0 37. 3 37. 2 37. 4 37. 6 37. 7 37. 4 38. 0 38. 0 37. 6 37.4 37, 3 37. 0 36. 6 35. 9 35. 3 34. 7 34. 2 19CS: Nov Dec 1969: Jan Feb Alar Apr May June Julv Aug Sept Oct Nov T Dec p 37. 5 37. 8 37. 5 37. 2 37. 6 37. 5 37. 7 38. 0 38. 1 38.2 38. 0 37. 7 37. 5 37. 7 40. 9 41. 1 40. 4 40. 0 40. 7 40. 5 40. 7 40. 9 40. 5 40. 6 41. 0 40. 7 40. 6 40. 9 35. 1 37. 1 36. 7 36. 6 37. 2 37. 6 38. 2 38. 5 38.8 39.2 39. 3 38.4 37. 1 37.7 34. 1 34. 6 34. 0 33. 8 33.9 33.8 33. 9 34. 5 35. 2 35.3 34. 2 33.7 33. 6 34. 2 __ _ __ __ __ __ 1 Data relate to production workers or nonsupervisory employees. Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1959. 2 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p IS. 14 Contract construction Retail trade 3 beasonaii} adjusted Unad lusted __ Manufacturing _ 37. 6 87. 6 37. 8 37. 5 87. 8 87. 8 87. 8 37. 8 87. 8 37.8 87.8 37. 6 37.6 87.5 * Includes eating and drinking places. Source: Department of Labor. 40. 8 40. 8 40. 6 40. 1 40. 9 40. 8 40.7 40. 7 40. 7 40.6 40.8 40.5 40.5 40. 6 86. % 87. 6 38. 2 38. 0 87. 9 88. 0 38. 1 87. 6 87.6 37.9 38.1 87.5 88.2 88. 2 S4 • 5 34.3 34-4 34.2 34. 3 84.1 34. 3 34. 2 84. 2 84.3 84^ 2 88. 9 34. o S3. 9 AVERAGE HOURLY AND WEEKLY EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES Average hourly earnings of private nonfarm production workers declined slightly in December rrom $3.12 to $3.11. Average weekly earnings increased by 25 cents to $11 7.25. DOLLARS 3.00 2.50 2.00 1 SO 1966 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [For production workers or nonsupervisory employees I I Average hourly earnings—current prices Total nonagricultural private l Period 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 196S 1969 p- _ _ _ _ . 1968: Nov Dec 1969: Jan Feb Mar_ _ Apr May__ June_ _ _ July Aug Sept.. Get Novp * Dec 1 $2. 09 2. 14 2. 22 2. 28 2. 36 2. 45 2. 56 2. 68 2. 85 3. 04 2. 92 2. 92 2. 94 2. 96 2. 97 2.98 3. 01 3. 03 3. 04 3. 05 3. 10 3. 11 3. 12 3. 11 Manufacturing $2. 26 2. 32 2. 39 2.46 2. 53 2. 61 2. 72 2. 83 3. 01 3. 19 3. 08 3. 11 3. 12 3. 12 3. 13 3. 15 3. 16 3. 1'. 3. 19 3. 19 3. 24 3. 24 3. 26 3. 28 Contract construction $3. 08 3. 20 3.31 3. 41 3. 55 3. 70 3. 89 4. 11 4. 40 4.77 4. 54 4. 55 4. 58 4. 56 4. 62 4. 64 4. 71 4. 71 4. 74 4. 79 4. 91 4. 95 4. 95 4. 99 Retail trade 2 $1. 52 1. 56 1. 63 1. 68 1.75 1. 82 1. 91 2. 01 2. 16 2. 30 2. 22 2. 21 2. 24 2. 26 2. 26 2. 27 2. 29 2. 30 2. 30 2. 30 2. 33 2. 35 2. 36 2. 33 Al o includes other private industry groups shown on p. 13. ludes eating and drinking places. n^s in current prices, adjusted to exclude the effects ol overtime and Average weekly earnings—current prices Total nonagricultural private l $80. 67 82. 60 85. 91 88. 46 91.33 95. 06 98. 82 101. 84 107. 73 114. 61 109. 50 110. 38 110. 25 110. 11 111. 67 111. 75 113. 48 115. 14 115. 82 116. 51 117. 80 117. 25 117. 00 117. 25 Manufacturing Contract construction Retail trade 2 $89. 72 92. 34 96. 56 99. 63 102. 97 107. 53 112. 34 114. 90 122. 51 129. 51 125. 97 127. 82 126. 05 124. 80 127. 39 127. 58 128. 61 129. 65 129. 20 129. 51 132. 84 131. 87 132. 36 134. 15 $113. 118. 122. 127. 132. 138. 146. 154. 164. 181. 159. 168. 168. 166. 171. 174. 179. 181. 183. 187. 192. 190. 183. 188. $57. 76 58. 66 60. 96 62. 66 64. 75 66. 61 68. 57 70. 95 74. 95 78. 66 75.70 76. 47 76. 16 76. 39 76. 61 76. 73 77. 63 79. 35 80. 96 81. 19 79. 69 79. 20 79. 30 79. 69 04 08 47 19 06 38 26 95 56 26 35 81 09 90 86 46 92 34 91 77 96 08 65 12 Manufacturing industries Adjusted Average weekly hourly earnearnings, ings, 1957-59 = 1957-59 3 100 prices 4 $106. 8 109.9 112. 7 115. 5 118. 4 121. 5 125. 6 131. 5 139. 5 147. 7 142. 6 143. 6 144.4 144. 9 145. 2 146. 0 146. 6 146. 9 147. 8 148. 4 149. 5 150. 2 151.0 152. 0 $87. 02 88. 62 91. 61 93. 37 95. 25 97. 84 99. 33 98. 80 101. 08 101. 42 102. 08 103. 33 101. 57 100. 16 101.43 100. 93 101. 43 101.61 100. 78 100. 63 102, 74 101. 59 101.43 102. 17 NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1959. Source: Department of Labor. •s in current prices divided by the consumer price index. r,s«> ° 70 :; 15 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION In December, industrial production (seasonally adjusted) declined for the fifth month in a row. The index was down 0.3 percent from November and up 1.3 percent from a year earlier. Index, 1957-59=100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 200 Index, 1957-59=100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 240 TOTAL 220 180 160 140 120 i 1 , i 100 I i i i ij I i I i i i 1966 1967 | 1968 1969 200 MANUFACTURING 180 180 — " I 160 160 NONDURABLE 140 140 120 1968 1969 1966 1969 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF 1 _ _ _ [1957-59 = 100, seasonally adjusted] Industry Total industrial production Period 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 p 1968: Nov Dec 1969: Jan Feb Mar Apr May_ June. Julv Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec p COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS _ _ _ _ _ 108. 7 109.7 118. 3 124. 3 132.3 143.4 156. 3 158.1 165. 5 172. 7 167. 8 168. 7 169. 1 170. 1 171. 4 171. 7 172. 5 173. 7 174. 6 174. 3 173. 9 173. 1 171. 4 170.9 3S1 anufactur ing Total j i 1 i 108.9 109. 6 118.7 124. 9 133. 1 145. 0 158. <> 159.7 166. 9 173. 8 169. 2 170. 1 170. 2 171. S 173. 1 17:i 0 173. 8 174. 8 175. 6 175. 4 175. 2 174. 1 171. 9 171. 2 Note.—Data for 1968 have been revised. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 16 B^i]rial produi3tS NonDurable durable Mining 109.5 112.9 119. 8 125.3 132.6 140.8 150. 8 154.6 163. 3 170. 5 167. 1 167. 5 166. 7 168. 3 169. 5 169. 6 170. 3 170. o 171.8 171. 3 170. 9 170. 1 171. 1 171. 1 101. 6 102. 6 105. 0 107.9 111.5 114.8 120. 5 123.8 126.6 130. 2 126. 6 127. 8 125. 8 124. 8 126. 7 128. 8 130. 3 134. 4 133. 2 131. 2 131. 6 130. 2 132. 0 133. 9 108. 5 107.0 117.9 124, 5 133.5 148.4 164. 8 163.7 169.8 176. 4 171. 0 172. 1 173. 0 174. 5 175. 9 175. 7 176. 7 178. 3 178. 7 178.8 178. 7 177. 3 172. 5 171. 3 Mai^ket 1 Utilities 115. 6 122. 3 131. 4 140. 0 151.3 160.9 173. 9 184.9 202. 5 221. 3 207. 2 210. 6 215. 1 214. 9 215. 1 216, 3 213. 6 215. 6 222. 2 222. 6 222. 5 224. 4 224. 9 225. 5 Total 109.9 111.2 119. 7 124 9 131.8 142.5 155. 5 158. 3 165.1 170. 8 167. 6 167. 9 168. 2 169. 3 170. 8 170. 2 170. 0 170.7 172. 8 172. 7 172. 2 170. 7 168. 0 167. 6 Consumer goods 111. 0 112. 6 119. 7 125. 2 131.7 140.3 147. 5 148.5 156.9 162. 4 159. 2 160. 2 161. 0 161. 7 162. 8 161. 8 160. 7 161. 5 164. 4 164. 2 162. 8 160. 8 159. 6 159. 1 Equipment 107.6 108.3 119.6 124,2 132.0 147.0 172. 6 179.4 182.6 188.6 185. 5 184. 5 183. 5 185. 5 187. 8 188.4 190. 0 190. 4 190. 8 190. 3 192. 4 191. 8 185. 9 185. 8 Materials 107.6 108.4 117. 0 123.7 132.8 144. 2 157.0 157.8 165.8 174. 6 168. 1 168. 8 169. 6 170. 8 172. 1 172. 9 174. 5 176. 3 176. 5 175. 9 176. 0 175. 9 174. 6 174. 0 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURES Production of most durable manufactures (seasonally adjusted) declined further in December with a 5 percent decline in the motor vehicles group being the largest. On balance, nondurables showed no change. Index, 1957-59=100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 200 Index, 1957-59=100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 240 180 220 CHEMICALS, PETROLEUM, AND RUBBER 160 200 140 180 120 160. PAPER AND - PRINTING - % LUMBER AND PRODUCTS Mil 100 M i l l I I I 1 I 1 I M l II I I 1 I 1 I I I I 1 I I I I II I 140 220 200 1966 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1957-59=100, seasonally adjusted] Durab le manufstctures Period Primary metals No ndurable manufactu res FabriTranspor- Lumber Textiles, Paper cated Machin- tation and apparel, and ery metal equipand printprodproducts ment ing leather ucts Chemicals, Foods, petrobeverleum, and ages, and rubber tobacco 160.5 183.8 183.4 184.3 195. 6 108. 2 103.6 118.3 127.0 130.7 149.2 166.9 165. 7 179.5 174. 6 102. 1 101. 3 106. 1 108.9 112.6 117.4 119. 4 116.9 122. 3 107. 5 108. 4 115. 1 118. 5 125.2 135.8 141. 6 139.4 144.8 143. 9 116.7 120. 1 127.5 135.3 146. 4 149.6 155.5 164. 7 222. 4 106. 6 110.2 113. 3 116. 8 120.8 123.4 128. 1 131.7 135.3 138. 9 173. 7 175. 4 187. 4 188. 5 180.0 176.4 123. 7 132. 3 147. 3 145. 1 158. 8 160. 8 216.7 215. 9 135.0 137. 3 176.4 177. 6 178. 5 178.3 179. 2 180. 6 179. 1 180. 6 179. 1 179. 5 179.2 180 191. 8 192. 7 194. 7 194.6 196. 9 197. 2 198. 1 199. 4 201. 2 198. 9 188. 2 171.2 173. 1 174. 1 172.4 171. 8 176.6 181. 1 179. 1 178. 8 175. 7 168.2 122. 5 126. 7 130. 8 122.6 120. 7 143. 6 142. 6 144. 7 143.7 146. 3 146. 0 145. 4 143. 3 141. 1 141. 7 141. 3 142 160. 2 161. 2 162. 2 162.4 163. 8 164. 4 165. 9 166. 3 165. 8 165. 7 166. 9 214. 1 218. 0 219. 6 221.7 222. 7 223. 2 225. 2 222. 4 223. 3 224. 3 138. 0 139.5 139. 8 138.2 136.9 137.0 138. 4 141. 0 140. 4 136. 2 138. 6 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 _.. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1968 1969 *> 101.3 98.9 104.6 113. 3 129.1 137.6 142.7 132.5 137.0 149. 2 107.6 106.5 117. 1 123.4 132.7 147.8 163.0 161.9 167.9 179.8 1968: Nov Dec 127. 9 134. 8 1969: Jan_ Feb Mar _ __ Apr _ _ __ May "_ _ June __ July Aug _ Sept_ _ ___ _ ___ ___ Oct___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Nov D e c »__ _ ___ 139. 5 143. 6 146. 2 147.9 149. 3 153. 1 152. 4 151. 3 149.3 150. 4 151. 1 151 110. 8 110. 4 123. 5 129. 2 141.4 188 164 115. ~> 113. 4 114. 1 111. 1 113. 8 109. 0 112. 4 166 113. 9 118. 9 131. 2 141. 8 152.5 164.6 181. 9 190.0 207.7 224.9 224 140 Note.—Data for 1968 have been revised. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 WEEKLY INDICATORS OF PRODUCTION Most weekly indicators of production declined in December. Output of cars and trucks dropped sharply—over 25 percent. MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS (DAILY AVERAGE) MILLIONS OF TONS BITUMINOUS COAL 2.5 3.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 1.51*1 1 1 I I M I I I I I i I I I 1 . I 1 ll 1 1 I "J. F M A M BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS 35 , i , I , . . I , , , , I , , . I , . , , I . , , I . , , I , , , , I , , , I ,V. . I . . , , I , . , J J F M A M J J A S O N D* 1 11 1 I . 1 1 1 . J THOUSANDS 300 20 SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR. EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, AND WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS Period Weekly average: 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 _-_ _ 1968: Nov. Dec 1969: Jan Feb Mar _ Apr May___ __ _ _ June _ July Aug__ Sept Oct Novp Dec ~ Week ended: 1969: Dec 27 1970: Jan 3 10 17"33 24" Electric Bituminous Freight Paperboard Cars and tru cks Steel pi-oduced power coal mined produced assembl ed (thou sands) loaded Index distributed (thousands (thousands Thousands (thousands of net (1957-59= (millions of of short Total Cars Trucks of tons) of cars) 100) tons kilowatt-hours) tons) J 2, 096 2, 431 2, 521 2, 572 2, 440 2, 515 2, 705 2, 235 2, 358 2,502 2, 729 2, 799 2,830 2, 789 2, 753 2, 571 2,578 2, 692 2, 782 2,778 2, 663 112. 5 130. 5 135.3 138. 1 131. 0 135. 0 145. 2 120. 0 126.6 134. 3 146. 5 150. 3 151. 9 149. 7 147. 8 138. 0 138.4 144. 5 149. 3 149. 1 142. 9 17, 490 18, 728 20, 169 21, 971 23, 169 25, 244 27, 588 25, 319 26, 806 27, 484 27, 241 26, 584 25, 291 25, 852 27, 897 30, 053 30, 071 27, 873 26, 917 27, 308 28, 426 1, 535 1,630 1,735 1,798 1, 868 1, 827 1, 859 1, 836 1,809 1,835 1, 747 1, 693 1,854 1, 865 1,770 2, 146 1,832 1,891 1,983 1,890 1, 889 555 558 562 570 540 543 544 557 495 490 512 530 552 568 570 514 568 567 595 562 483 2, 454 2, 603 2,541 2,549 2, 520 131. 7 139. 7 136.4 136. 8 135. 3 27, 455 27, 564 30, 760 30, 052 1, 731 1,676 1, 433 1, 813 382 387 456 496 1 Daily average. Includes data for Alaska. 2 For period Dec 21-31. Not charted. * For period Jan 1-10. 3 18 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 2 4 358 384 410 446 439 479 510 505 457 474 516 527 516 534 529 474 514 489 528 526 492 175. 0 178. 8 213.7 199.3 172.9 207.6 195.7 243.8 204.7 213. 4 218.3 222. 4 199. 3 194. 6 226. 2 125. 7 122.8 208. 1 228.4 211. 5 155. 5 146.9 148. 8 179.4 165. 4 142. 4 170. 1 158. 1 203. 5 169.7 176. 1 177.7 181. 3 161. 9 161. 9 187. 7 93. 4 93.4 171. 6 185. 1 167. 9 122. 7 28. 1 30.0 34.3 33. 9 30. 5 37.5 37. 6 40.3 35. 1 37. 3 40. 5 41. 1 37.3 32. 7 38. 5 32. 3 29. 4 36. 5 43. 3 43. 6 32. 7 655 53. 5 45. 7 195. 4 176. 3 201.5 38. 7 30. 9 155. 7 138. 5 162. 0 14.8 14. 8 39. 7 37. 8 39. 6 517 518 Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, Association of American Railroads, American Paper Institute, and Ward's Automotive Reports. NEW CONSTRUCTION According to preliminary estimates, new construction (seasonally adjusted) declined 2 percent in November. Residential nonfarm and commercial and industrial construction accounted for the decline. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 20 1 969 1963 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Total new construction expenditures 66.2 72. 3 75. 1 76.2 84.7 92. 0 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 19693 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Private Total 45. 8 50. 3 51. 1 50. 6 57. 0 63. 7 Residential nonfarm Commeri New cial and 1 Total I housing industrial | units Billions of doll ars 26. 3 i 20. 4 9. 0 26. 3 1 20. 4 11. 9 24. 0 1 18. 0 13.6 23. 7 1 17. 9 13. 1 28. 8 I 22. 4 13. 9 16. 4 31. 6 1 23. 6 Other 10. 6 12. 1 13. 6 13.7 14. 2 15. 7 Constructio]neon tracts 2 CommerTotal value cial and (index, i industrial 1957-59= ! floor space 100) (millions of square feet) Federal, State, and local 20. 4 22. 1 24. 0 25. 6 27.7 28. 3 137. 142. 145. 153. 173. 189. 0 8 3 3 4 4 i Seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted ai inual rates 1968: Oct__ __ . Nov Dec I960: Jan Feb Mar. Apr May June _ July Aug __ Sept__ Oct Nov p Dec 87. 8 87. 8 88. 1 92. 0 92. 1 91.7 92. 7 92. 3 91. 5 91.8 91. 7 93. 6 93. 9 92. 0 59. 3 59. 0 58. 9 62. 9 62. 6 62. 8 63. 0 63. 6 63. 2 64. 2 64. 0 65. 6 65. 8 63. 8 29. 8 30. 2 30. 9 31. 1 31. 4 32. 4 32. 9 32. 9 31. 8 31.4 30. 9 31. 1 31. 5 31. 2 • : ; ; ; ! ; i ' ; 1 ! ; j 23. 24. 25. 25. 25. 25. 25. 24. 23. 23. 22. 22. 23. 22. ! 1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential contraction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. 2 Compiled by F. W. Dodge Company and relates to 48 States. 3 Estimates. 6 1 0 0 5 5 0 5 9 2 6 6 0 6 15. 0 14. 5 14. 0 16. 8 16. 3 15. 8 14. 9 15. 2 16. 1 16. 8 16.8 17.8 17.8 16. 1 14. 4 14. 3 14. 0 15. 0 14. 9 14. 6 15. 1 15. 5 15. 3 16. 0 16. 4 16.7 16. 5 16. 5 28. 5 28. 8 29. 2 29. 1 29. 5 29.0 29. 7 28. 7 28.3 27. 5 27.7 28.0 28.1 28. 2 200 183 179 204 205 182 183 210 186 180 216 173 195 178 218 599 680 769 694 779 883 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 956 836 858 1, 133 840 762 790 1, 027 964 884 864 790 1, 029 762 1, 039 NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1959. Sources: Department of Commerce and F. W. Dodge Company. 19 NEW HOUSING STARTS AND APPLICATIONS FOR FINANCING Private nonfarm starts declined again in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of about 1 VA million starts. Starts for the year 1969 were about 21A percent below the 1968 level. Permits fell slightly in December. MILLIONS OF UNITS MILLIONS OF UNITS 1.0 1.0 1963 SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE:. FEDERAL HOUSING ADMINISTRATION (FHA), AND VETERANS ADMINISTRATION (VA) COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of units] Hou sing start 3 I Total I private Period j and i public i (includi ing ! farm) 1964 11,561. 6 1965 ! 1,509. 6 1966__ _ _ .[I, 196. 2 1967 1,321. 9 1968 |1, 547. 7 1969 » 1,496. 6 1968: Nov.. Dec__ 1969: Jan___ Feb__ Mar Apr_ _ May__ June__ July__ Aug__ Sept__ Oct__ Nov. Decp_ 129. 5 99. 8 105. 8 94. 8 135. 6 159. 9 157. 7 150.8 126. 5 127.6 132. 9 125. 8 97.4 81. 8 Total private Private non(including farm i farm) 1, 529. 3 1, 472. 9 1, 165. 0 1, 291. 6 1, 507. 7 1, 463. 2 127. 1 96. 4 101. 5 90. 1 131. 9 159. 0 155. 5 147. 3 125. 2 124.9 129. 3 123. 4 94. 6 80. 5 1, 502. 3 1, 450. 6 1, 141. 5 1, 268. 4 1, 483. 6 1, 445. 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 125. 1 1 95. 5 100. 2 89. 2 130. 6 157. 4 154. 0 144.8 122. 9 123. 5 127. 6 i ! 122. 1 ; 9.3. 1 80. 2 Total One unit 529. 3 472. 9 165. 0 291. 6 507. 7 463. 2 971. 5 963. 8 778. 5 843.9 899. 5 809. 3 1, 733 1, 507 1, 878 1,686 1, 584 1, 563 1, 509 1,469 1,371 1, 384 1, 542 1, 392 1,297 1, 245 905 922 1,066 975 828 797 883 808 765 723 846 111 783 718 1 Authorized by issuance of local building permit; in 13,000 permit-issuing places beginning 1967; 12,000 for 1963-66; and 10,000 prior to 1963. 2 Units represented by mortgage applications for new home construction. 20 Propose d home constr uction Privs ite nonfa rm New private Goverriment housing Applica- Requests Two or home pr ograms units tions for for VA FHA appraisTotal more authorals 2 units ized l commitFHA VA ments 2 182. 1 113. 6 557. 8 1, 502. 3 154. 0 59. 2 1, 285. 8 102. 1 188. 9 509. 1 1, 450. 6 159. 9 49. 4 1, 239. 8 153. 0 971. 9 99. 2 386. 5 1, 141. 5 129. 1 36. 8 167. 2 124. 3 447.7 1, 268. 4 141. 9 52. 5 1, 141. 0 168. 9 608. 2 1, 483. 6 147. 7 56. 1 1, 341. 4 131. 7 187.6 138. 2 653. 8 1, 445. 5 153. 6 51. 2 11, 296. 2 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 212 172 158 1,425 1, 705 53 828 187 1,492 1,463 136 158 65 585 137 57 1,403 179 812 148 1,845 52 169 132 711 1, 477 1, 664 138 1,421 161 1,567 157 53 136 756 1,502 48 166 1,548 166 124 766 1,323 122 134 47 168 1, 495 626 1,340 147 175 1, 446 48 126 661 137! 46 1, 228 175 145 1,349 606 47 170 143 \ 1,370 1,245 661 151 54 193 1,522 152; 1,201 127 696 1,183 231 52 130 163' 1,379 615 239 184 53 514 1,277 1,191 59 1, 177 209 193 147 527 1,240 Private (includin g farm) m NOTE.—Data include Alaska and Hawaii. Sources: Department of Commerce, Federal Housing Administration (FHA), and Veterans Administration (VA). BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES - TOTAL AND TRADE According to advance reports, retail sales (seasonally adjusted) were unchanged in December. In November, business sales declined mainly because of a decrease in manufacturing. The rise in business inventories was much smaller in November than in October. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS {SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 22 BUSINESS SALES AND RETAIL TRADE (ENLARGED SCALE) INVENTORIES 20 (-DURABLE GOODS STORES 18 16 14 12 10 80 8 24 [-WHOLESALE TRADE (ENLARGED SCALE) - 24 INVENTORIES 22 20 18 16 14 I 1966 1969 1967 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Total business l Wholesale Sales Period Sales 2 ! Retail 5 2 [nventories 3 NonDurable durable goods goods stores stores iN* ondurable goods stores Inventories 3 o , „ Invenfeales - ! tories 3 101, 149 105, 525 111, 548 121, 140 137, 184 143, 694 153, 764 164, 992 12, 674 13, 382 14, 527 15, 595 16, 979 17, 099 18, 329 19, 776 ! 14, 936 16, 048 ' 16, 977 i 18, 274 ! 20, 691 I 21, 557 22, 528 24, 039 19, 630 20, 556 21, 823 23, 677 25, 330 26, 151 28, 277 29, 340 6, 241 6, 661 7,049 7,849 8, 192 8,348 9, 187 9,409 13, 389 13, 895 14, 773 15, 828 17, 138 17, 803 19, 090 19, 931 28, 001 29, 450 31, 201 34, 687 38, 368 39, 318 42, 657 45, 537 11, 703 12, 436 13, 189 15, 255 17, 309 17, 403 19, 461 20, 602 16, 298 17, 014 18, 012 19, 432 21, 059 21, 915 23, 196 24, 935 152, 017 152, 830 153, 764 154, 086 155, 339 156, 401 157, 477 158, 602 159, 264 160, 631 161, 659 162, 733 164,250 164, 992 18, 418 18, 788 18, 830 18, 347 18, 799 19, 516 19,612 20, 105 19,970 19, 719 20, 059 20, 210 20, 288 20, 345 22, 231 22, 395 22, 528 22, 441 22, 769 23, 080 23,341 23, 438 23,611 23, 591 23, 609 23, 716 23, 956 24, 039 28, 697 28, 806 28, 347 28, 989 29, 289 28, 916 29, 442 29, 386 29, 371 29, 090 29, 346 29, 259 29, 620 29, 548 29, 581 9, 342 9,314 9, 238 9, 446 9,597 9, 377 9,575 9,481 9, 545 19, 355 19, 492 19, 109 19, 543 19, 692 19, 539 19, 867 19, 905 19, 826 19, 949 20, 185 19, 875 20, 266 20, 297 20, 290 42, 220 42, 488 42, 657 42, 740 43, 014 43, 004 43, 11C 43, 025 43, 438 43, 874 44, 322 44, 806 45, 378 45, 537 19, 165 19, 361 19, 461 19, 622 19, 487 19, 542 19, 567 19, 044 19, 365 19, 358 19, 756 20, 079 20, 564 20, 602 23, 055 23, 127 23, 196 23, 118 23, 527 23, 462 23, 551 23, 981 24, 073 24, 516 24, 566 24, 727 24, 814 24, 935 Total Total Durable goods stores Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1962 1963 1964 196:> I960 1967 196S 196!) " IOCS: (K-,t Nov Dec 1969: ,J:m__ Fob .Mar Apr M:iv .June .l;ilv_. AuS«-|'i <>rt. X<»\ " !>,•<• '• j 65,417 1 68, 969 _ J 73,685 ' 80, 276 1 87, 184 ! 88,962 __ I 96, 915 103, 896 ; 99, 675 100, 142 98, 671 100, 137 101, 390 i 101, 510 i 102, 352 ! 103, 232 i 104, 127 104, 201 ! 104, 644 _ _ ! 105, 903 ! 106, 907 ' 106, 036 1 r I I - M I I "business" also includes manufacturing ( ' l i t h l y average lor year and total for month. < > k v a l u e , end of period, seasonally adjusted. • i n m i i i - n u l l , « l n t a i n c l u d e Alaska'and H a w a i i . 5 9, 141 9, 161 9,384 9, 354 9, 251 9, 291 Beginning 1960, data include Alaska and Hawaii. Source: Department of Commerce. 21 MANUFACTURERS5 SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND NEW ORDERS In December, new orders (seasonally adjusted) received by straight month. Shipments were off sharply. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) durable goods manufacturers BILLIONS OF DOLLARS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS declined for the third (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) MANUFACTURERS' INVENTORIES TOTAL 40 30 40 MANUFACT JRERS' NEW (ORDERS 30 40 DL RABLE GOODS y, .„.«••'*•"" ..•i.i". .„„.,„ 20 30 \ NONDU RABLE GOODS y i i i i i i i i i 1966 SOURCE: ! i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 | | ! 1 1967 .1 1 I ! ! 1968 M i l ! 1 ! 1 1 1N 1969 20 " 1966 1969 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturers' sh ipmentsl Manufact urers' inv entories2 Manufacture rs' new orders' j | Manufacturers' inventoryship- Durab le goods Period Non- Total Durable durable goods goods Non- Non- Total Durable durable goods goods Total Total Machinery durable and goods equipment i ratio 3 Millions of dollars seasonal y ad justed 1962 1963 33, 113 35, 032 1964___ 37, 335 1965. 41, 003 44, 876 1966__ 1967___ 45, 712 1968__ __ __ 50, 310 4 1969 _ _ __ _ 54, 780 52, 548 1968: Nov 51, 494 Dec 52, 801 1969: Jan 53, 302 Feb Mar 53, 078 53, 298 Apr__ 53, 741 May June _ _ 54, 786 July 55, 392 Aug 55, 239 56, 434 Sept Get 56, 999 Novp 5 56, 143 Dec _ 17, 103 18, 247 19, 634 22, 216 24, 635 24, 973 27, 579 30, 452 28, 786 27, 742 29, 325 29, 914 29, 530 29, 643 29, 573 30, 136 30, 605 30, 868 31, 742 31, 889 31, 099 30, 071 16, 010 16, 786 17, 701 18, 788 20, 240 20, 739 22, 731 24, 328 23, 762 23, 752 23, 476 23, 388 23, 548 23, 655 24, 168 24, 650 24, 787 24, 371 24, 692 25, 110 25, 044 58, 212 60, 027 63, 370 68, 179 78, 125 82, 819 88, 579 95, 416 87, 947 88, 579 88, 905 89, 556 90, 317 91, 018 92, 139 92, 215 93, 166 93, 728 94, 211 94, 916 95, 416 34, 609 35, 807 38, 433 42, 204 49, 797 53, 540 57, 422 63, 076 56, 953 57, 422 57, 879 58, 282 58, 978 59, 426 60, 222 60, 479 61, 441 61, 724 62, 036 62, 631 63, 076 23, 603 24, 220 24, 937 25, 975 28, 328 29, 279 31, 157 32, 340 30, 994 31, 157 31, 026 31, 274 31, 339 31, 592 31, 917 31, 736 31, 725 32, 004 32, 175 32, 285 32, 340 33, 005 35, 322 37, 952 17, 026 18, 522 20, 258 41,803' 22, 986 45, 938 25, 710 45, 928 25, 189 50, 597 27, 868 54, 956 30, 630 53, 100 29, 325 53, 101 29, 380 53, 119 29, 684 53, 901 30, 482 53, 283 29, 697 54, 635 30, 944 54, 133 29, 998 53, 861 29, 171 55, 793 31, 069 54, 799 30, 482 56, 829 32, 135 56, 917 31, 795 56, 103 31, 049 29, 516 3, 090 3,412 3, 935 4, 435 5, 268 5, 250 5, 804 6,402 6, 089 6, 237 6, 204 6, 511 6,414 7,099 6, 428 6, 528 6, 346 6, 245 7, 352 6, 450 6,402 15, 979 16, 800 17, 694 18, 817 20, 228 20, 739 22, 72S 24, 327 23, 775 23, 721 ; 23, 435 ; 23, 419 23, 586 ! 23, 691 24, 135 24, 690 ; 24, 724 24,317 24, 694 ! 25. 122 i 25, 054 6, 163 J Monthly average for year and total for month. * Book value, end oi period, seasonally adjusted. 3 For annual periods, ratio ol weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for monthly data, ratio ol inventories at end oi month to shipments or4month. Estimates; data for year calculated on basis of no change from November. 6 Not charted. 22 NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1958. Source: Department oi Co'.nmerce. 1. 72 1. 69 1. 64 1. 60 1. 62 ]. 77 1.70 1. 68 1.67 i. ' 2 1. 68 1. 68 1. 70 1. 71 1. 71 i. 68 1. 68 1.70 1. 67 1. 67 1. 70 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS In December, the merchandise trade balance increased to $232 million (seasonally adjusted). During 1969, the monthly surplus averaged $105 million, compared to an average monthly surplus of $70 million in 1968. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4.0 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 1970 1964 3/SEE NOTE 1 BELOW. SOURCEi DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE i I Period [Millions of dollars] Mei•chandise exports Merctlandise i nports Total ^includDomesti<3 exports Gen<2ral impc>rts 2 ing ree:•cports) l 3 Total Food, Crude Food, Crude Manubever- matematefacSeason- Unad- Total i 3 beverages, rials ages, rials Season- Unadtured ally ad- justed and and and toally ad- justed and tojusted goods fuels fuel bacco bacco justed Mont hi v average: 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 __ ]967_ 1968 1969 _ __ 1909: J a n _ _ Feb__ Mar__ Apr.. Mav_ .) i i n o _ JulvAiitf__ So |>t_ <>cl__ Nov. 1 )<HJ__ 3, 134 3, 046 289 665 312 726 349 848 123 386 377 201 432 421 392 554 802 383 064 370 U n ad juste d 418 3, 099 442 3, 007 2, 057 2, 145 3, 367 3, 507 3, 543 3, 100 2, 998 o, 165 3, 1 1 3 3, 570 3, 415 3, 363 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, J9G8: Nov.. 2, 972 Dec.. 2, 077 'Total lie^ and iTotnl 8 Total COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISEES 2, 093 2, 297 8, 196 6', 365 3, 292 8, 21 '.I 3, 172 3, 3S5 :•>, 826 V, 3(M ;•;, 8(>7 />, 239 686 749 872 153 229 458 586 839 110 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 017 112 322 458 499 052 956 112 009 526 364 312 143 LSI 37~> 39(i 437 424 386 370 392 453 462 427 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 465 444 2, 207 2, 073 2 888 2 908 2, 804 3, 010 227 253 397 511 479 400 422 418 397 524 508 476 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2 2, 2, 2, 2 2 2 3 8 8 8: i 018 655 981 177 276 188 066 ISO 2, 026 2, 401 & tj <!>0)0) &f5?-r 3,430 3 214 8 007 2, 989 excludes Department of Dofonso shipi nents of ^rant-aid military suj>equipment under the Military Assistai ico Program. arrivals of imported poods other than i utransit shipments. includes commodities and transactions not classified according io kind. 1, 230 1,372 1, 434 1, 562 1, 786 2, 135 2, 241 2, 769 322 280 315 361 356 367 394 405 437 065 139 191 377 453 602 737 985 230 627 Gf>6 491 534 547 184 115 276 222 484 294 357 3,004 ; 055 2,993 3, 3, 3, 3, 2, 3, 334 236 216 154 910 132 3,247 288 361 306 391 322 396 335 419 334 453 382 476 392 447 447 503 442 533 Unad listed 471 459 475 545 194 316 503 506 486 486 477 418 436 523 442 522 457 476 546 589 537 515 526 529 528 582 488 622 Grossmerchandise trade Manusurplus, facseasontured ally adgoods justed 545 637 672 759 937 1, 204 1, 313 1,719 1,918 455 377 438 590 444 323 345 70 105 1, 766 1, 877 89 70 1, 286 1, 523 1,847 2, 129 2, 102 2, 096 2, 030 1, 855 75 — 359 215 178 16 25 105 205 271 147 153 282 2,046 2,198 1,945 1,976 Note.—Data adjusted to include silver ore and bullion reported separately prior to 1909. Source: Department of Commerce. 23 U.S. EXPORTS AND IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES In the third quarter, the surplus on goods and services was $2.9 billion, an increase of $1.7 billion from the second quarter (seasonally adjusted annual rates). Exports of goods and services rose by $1.2 billion, while imports declined by $0.5 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES \ 30 IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES 20 20 10 1963 3969 -M=RELIMINARY. SOURCE! DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Period 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 2 1969 Total _ 37, 271 39, 399 43, 360 46, 188 50, 594 54, 275 Exports of good s and seir vices Inconle on investinents MiliMerchantary GovPridise i sales ernvate ment 25, 478 747 26, 447 830 29, 389 829 30, 681 1,240 33, 598 1,427 35, 489 1, 564 4,930 5,384 5,659 6,234 6,934 7, 887 456 509 593 638 765 951 Impor ts of good s and ser\dees Balance on Other services Total Merchan-l dise 5,659 6,230 6,891 7,394 7,871 8,384 28, 691 32, 278 38, 081 41, Oil 48, 078 52, 405 18, 647 21, 496 25, 463 26, 821 32, 972 35, 193 Mili- Other goods tary and expend- services servitures ices 2,880 7, 164 2,952 7,831 3,764 8, 854 4,378 9, 813 4, 530 10, 577 4,813 12, 399 8,580 7, 121 5, 279 5, 177 2, 516 1, 869 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1968: II III IV 50, 672 53, 376 50, 612 33, 580 1,412 35, 516 1, 624 33, 532 1,456 7, 072 7,312 7, 108 820 848 560 7 788 47, 308 8 076 49, 740 7 956 49, 408 32, 524 34, 264 33, 832 4,464 10,320 3,364 4,572 10,904 3, 636 4,676 10,900 1,204 1969: I II— 47, 652 56, 980 58, 192 29, 876 1, 672 38, 352 1, 336 38, 240 1, 684 7, 544 7,672 8,444 936 932 984 7 624 46, 200 8 688 55, 768 8 840 55, 248 30, 288 38, 364 36, 928 4,816 11, 096 1, 452 4,832 12, 572 1,212 4, 792 13, 528 2,944 III v 1 Adjusted 2 from customs data for differences in timing and coverage. Average of the first 3 quarters on a seasonally adjusted annual rates basis. 24 Source: Department of Commerce. U.S. BALANCE OF INTERNATIONAL PAYMENTS In the third quarter, the balance of payments on the liquidity basis showed a deficit of $10.2 billion, down from the extraordinary deficit of $15.5 billion in the second quarter (seasonally adjusted annual rates). The official reserve transactions balance shifted from a surplus of $4.9 billion in the second quarter to a deficit of $3.7 billion in the third quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 10 10 BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES A __ BALANCE, OFFICIAL RESERVE TRANSACTIONS BASIS SOURCi: DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Period U.S. Government grants and capital, net 1 1964... 1965___ 1966___ 1967___ 1968__1969 7 _ _ U.S. pr ivate cap] tal, net Direct investment Other longterm Shortterm BaUmce Errors Foreign and unrecorded Liquidcapital, net 1 transity actions basis 2 Official reserve transactions basis 3 Changes in gold, convertible currenTo f oreig n official cies, and 5 hold ers To other IMF gold foreign tranche holders 6 position N^on— Liquid (increase liquid Chan ges in sel Beted liabiliticjs (decrea 3e [-])* r-]) 318 1, 554 1, 075 - 3, 564 -2, 328 — 2, 103 — 2, 147 689 -1, 118 -2, 800- 1, 564 171 -18 85 131 - 3, 406 - 3, 468 -1,079 270 -576 - 1, 335- 1, 289 753 1, 222 761 2, 384 266 — 1, 595 - 3, 444 -3,639 -256 2, 531 -489 -415 — 1, 357 568 1, 346 2, 020 1, 472 3, 360 — 1, 007 - 3, 544-3,418 -4,223 -3, 154 -1, 292 -1, 209 52 3, 811 -642 8, 565 168 1,638 - 3, 099 2, 341 -3,955 — 3, 025 — 1, 082 -1,049 -880 -4, 000 -4, 107 - 1, 505 -623 3, 039 -4, 319 -10, 795 1,949 Seasonally adjusted annual rates Quarterly totals, unadjusted 1968: ; II___J-4, 220 -4, 036 -588 -1, 524 III..J-3, 872 - 5, 048 -916 - 1, 508 IV...: -3, 340 -1, 132 — 2, 280 -376 1969: !: I -3, 172 -3, 712 - 1, 024 -628 II... -4, 620 -4, 228 — 1, 708 -2, 072 832 III ".! -4, 208 -4, 380 -1, 784 6,212 -2, 190 -38 388 487 1,468 777 537 664 2, 222 1, 017 -149 6,532 -5, 040 -6, 680 4, 576 -1,708 -543 1,420 -4, 352 -15,484 4,944 1, 164 -3,564 -10,220 -3, 672 2,239 45 -360 -515 3, 031 4,654 1,370 10, 068 -1,920 7, 220 1,236 10, 752 -240 1 Includes certain special Government transactions. 2 Equals changes in liquid liabilities to foreign official holders, other foreign holders, and changes in official reserve assets consisting of gold, convertible currencies, and the U.S. gold tranche position in the IMF. J Equals changes in liquid and nonliquid liabilities to foreign official holders and changes in official reserve assets consisting of gold, convertible currencies, and the U.S. gold tranche position in the IMF. 4 Includes short-term official and banking liabilities and foreign holdings of U.S. Government bonds and notes. 5 Central banks, governments, and U.S. liabilities to the IMF arising from reversible gold sales to, and gold deposits with, the U.S. 36 -556 3, 448 — 137 — 571 -1,076 8 -48 -299 -686 15 Private holders; includes banks and international and regional organizations; excludes IMF. 7 Average of first 3 quarters on a seasonally adjusted annual rates basis. 8 On Sept. 30, U.S. reserve assets consisted of gold stock, $11,164 million (up $11 million from June 30); IMF position including gold portion of increased U.S. subscription, $1,782 million; convertible currencies, $3,797 million. NOTE.—Data exclude military grant-aid and U.S. subscriptions to IMF. Source: Department of Commerce. OS PRICES CONSUMER PRICES Consumer prices continued to advance in December with a rise of 0.6 percent. Food prices were up sharply and service prices increased somewhat more than in November. Nonfood commodities, both durable and nondurable, posted small price increases. Index, 1957-59=100 110 100 1963 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE* DEPARTMENT OF IABOR [1957-59 = 100] All items Period 1960 1961 1962 1963 _ _ _ _ _ 1964 1965 1966 1967 _ _ _ 1968 1969 1968: Nov Dec 1969: Jan Feb Mar Apr_ Mav June _ Julv Aug _ Sept _ _ _ _ Oct _ _ _ _ _ Nov Dec___ _ ___ _ _ __ __ _ _ __ _ __ Source: Department of Labor. 26 _ _ _ 103. 1 104. 2 105. 4 106. 7 108. 1 109.9 113. 1 116. 3 121.2 127. 7 123.4 123. 7 124. 1 124. 6 125. 6 126. 4 126. 8 127. 6 128. 2 128. 7 129. 3 129. 8 130. 5 131. 3 All commodities 101.7 102. 3 103.2 104. 1 105. 2 106.4 109. 2 111. 2 115.3 120. 5 117. 1 117. 2 117. 4 117. 8 118. 7 119. 3 119. 6 120. 5 121. 0 121.4 121. 7 122. 4 122. 9 123. 6 Co mmoditie s Comm odities les s food Food NonAll Durable durable 101.4 102. 6 103. 6 105. 1 106. 4 108.8 114. 2 115. 2 119.3 125. 5 120. 5 121. 2 122. 0 121. 9 122.4 123. 2 123. 7 125. 5 126. 7 127. 4 127. 5 127. 2 128. 1 129. 9 101.7 102. 0 102. 8 103. 5 104. 4 105. 1 106. 5 109. 2 113.2 118. 0 115.3 115. 2 115. 0 115. 7 116. 8 117. 2 117. 5 118. 0 118. 1 118. 2 118. 7 119. 8 120.2 120. 3 100. 9 100. 8 101. 8 102. 1 103. 0 102. 6 102. 7 104. 3 107.5 111. 6 109. 3 108. 7 108. 6 109. 7 111. 1 111. 4 111. 3 111. 7 111. 9 111. 9 111. 6 113. 2 113.5 113. 6 102.6 103. 2 103. 8 104. 8 105.7 107.2 109. 7 113. 1 117.7 123. 0 120.2 120. 3 120. 1 120. 5 121. 4 121. 9 122. 4 123. 0 123. 1 123. 3 124. 4 125. 1 125. 5 125. 7 Services All services 106. 6 108. 8 110. 9 113. 0 115. 2 117.8 122. 3 127. 7 134. 3 143. 7 137.4 138. 1 139. 0 139. 7 140. 9 142. 0 142. 7 143. 3 144. 0 145. 0 146. 0 146. 5 147. 2 148. 3 Rent 103. 1 104. 4 105. 7 106.8 107. 8 108.9 110. 4 112. 4 115. 1 118. 8 116.3 116. 7 116. 9 117. 2 117. 5 117. 8 118. 1 118. 5 118. 8 119. 3 119. 7 120. 1 120. 5 121. 0 Services less rent 107. 1 110. 0 112. 1 114. r> 117. 0 120.0 125. 0 131. 1 138. (5 149. 2 142.0 142. 9 143. 9 144. 6 146. 1 147. 4 148. I 148. 8 149. 6 150. 7 151. 7 152. 3 153. 1 154. 3 WHOLESALE PRICES Wholesale prices rose 0.3 percent in December, or about one-half of the November rise. Price increases were registered by processed foods and feeds (0.7 percent), farm products (0.5 percent), and industrial commodities (0.4 percent). Index, 1957-59=100 Index, 1957-59=100 80 80 1963 1969 SOURCE. DEPARTMENT Of LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1957-59 = 100] All commodities Farm products Processed foods and feeds 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967__ 1968 1969 100. 7 100. 3 100.6 100. 3 100. 5 102.5 105. 9 106. 1 108.7 113. 0 96. 9 96. 0 97. 7 95. 7 94. 3 98.4 105. 6 99. 7 102. 2 108. 5 100. 0 101. 6 102. 7 103. 3 103. 1 106. 7 113. 0 111. 7 114. 1 119. 8 1968: 109.8 103. 3 ! 114.7 Period 1969: Jan Fob Mar Apr. May- -- -June _ July Aug Sept Oct_ _ _ Nov Dec 110. 7 i 111. 1 : 111. 7 _ __ 111.9 -- --112.X _ 113. 2 113. 3 113. 4 113. 6 _ _ _ _ _ 114. 0 ' 114.7 _ _ 115. 1 104. 9 105. 0 106. 5 105. 6 110. 5 111. 2 110. 5 108. 9 108. 4 107. 9 111. 1 111. 7 116. 0 116. 3 116. 4 117. 3 119. 4 121. 4 122. 0 121. 5 121. 3 121. 6 121. 8 122. 6 1 Coverage of the subgroups does not correspond exactly to coverage of this Index. 2 Excludes intermediate materials for food manufacturing and manufactured animal feeds; includes, in part, grain products for further processing. Iridustrial c ommoditi es 101. 3 100. 8 100. 8 100. 7 101. 2 102. 5 104. 7 106. 3 109.0 112. 7 Inter- Producmediate er finmateished rials2 goods 98. 3 101. 4 102. 3 97. 2 102. 5 100. 1 95. 6 99. 9 102. 9 94.3 99. 6 103. 1 97. 1 100. 2 104. 1 100.9 101.5 105.4 104. 5 103. 6 108. 0 100. 0 104 8 111. 5 101.8 107.5 115.3 110. 5 111. 3 119. 3 110. 9 111. 4 112. 0 112. 1 112. 2 112. 2 112. 4 112. 8 113. 2 113. S 114. 2 114. 6 105. 0 105. 5 107. 2 109. 0 109.7 110. 2 110. 7 112. 5 113. 9 113. 7 114. 1 114. 5 All industrials 1 Crude materials 109. 7 110. 4 111. 1 111. 0 111. 1 110. 8 110. 9 111.3 111. 8 112. 2 112. 6 112. 9 117. 6 117. 8 118. 0 118. 1 118. 5 118. 7 119. 3 119. 3 119.9 120. 8 121. 5 122. 3 ConsuEner finished g<:>ods excludin g food NonDurdurable able 100.9 101. 5 100.5 101. 5 100. 0 101. 6 99. 5 101. 9 99. 9 101.6 99.6 102.8 100. 2 104. 8 101. 7 107. 2 103.9 109.4 105. 8 112. 3 105. 1 105. 1 105. 3 105. 4 105. 4 105. 5 105. 6 105. 2 105. 3 106.9 107. 1 107. 2 110. 4 110.7 111. 2 111. 5 111.4 112. 2 112. 6 113.0 113.3 113. 6 113.8 114. 1 NOTE.—Beginning 1967, the indexes incorporate a revised weighting structure reflecting 1963 values of shipments. The classification structure also changed. Source: Department of Labor. 27 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS During the month ended December 1 5, both the index of prices received and the index of prices paid by farmers were unchanged. The adjusted parity ratio was also unchanged. lnde>c, 1957-59=100130 Index, 1957-59==100 130 ^ «»*««***" PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, ANC» WAGb KAIfcS 120 /* ^**?*" 120 -^H J— V \ *' >, 100 90 ^ %r I 1 1 1 I 1 ! 1 I 1 ! /^^J / —-^T i i iii! i i i ii 1 ^^/ A^ ^ / \-/~^^ ^v \ PRICES RECEIVED (ALL FARM PRODUCT*;, 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 I 1 ^^ / •*37*\i//S\ ^ 110 1 1 1 1 ! 1 /" 110 ^r 100 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 I 1 1 ! 1 1 ! t 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 RATIOJ/ 100 90 RAT OJ/ 100 90 90 PARITY RATIO 80 \— </\ ">%-"X^ "Nrt*"«,„, ' X,,,,,,,,*'""""*,,,,., ^7"""""*^ 80 *"* ^-o- "\x—x..,.,,.-^.-A..m., 70 1 I 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 ! I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 \ \ \ 1963 ! 1964 1 1 | I I 1 1965 1 1 1 I i i:t 1 I I i i t i i ! | ! 1 1 1 1 1 t 1966 1967 1 1 f ! |J 11 ! ! I | 1 1 ? ! ! \ \ 1 1 | 11 70 60 1969 1968 J/RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES, ON 1910-14 = 100 BASE. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Prices']received by f armers Period All farm products 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1968: Nov 15 Dec 15 1969: Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15.. May 15 June 15_ July 15 Aug 15 Sept 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 __ _ 99 99 101 100 98 103 110 105 108 114 109 108 109 110 112 112 117 117 117 115 114 115 118 118 Prices paid by far mers All items, Livestock interest, Family Production and living Crops taxes, and products wage rates items items Index, 1957-59=100 102 102 101 100 98 102 102 98 101 103 104 99 103 105 103 104 107 104 107 95 91 103 107 107 105 104 105 107 110 101 114 108 106 113 110 109 116 107 101 113 111 121 103 112 117 116 100 127 123 125 112 119 103 113 123 113 119 100 123 115 124 120 113 99 116 114 117 125 120 101 102 122 115 126 119 122 116 102 120 127 117 124 128 123 106 117 128 128 123 103 116 100 129 128 123 116 123 127 99 128 116 124 127 96 128 116 124 127 128 97 117 129 125 102 129 117 133 129 125 99 'Percentage ratio of index of prices received by fanners to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates on 1910-14=100 base. 28 Parity ratio 1 Actual 80 79 80 78 76 77 80 74 74 74 73 73 72 73 73 73 75 76 75 75 74 74 76 76 Adjusted 2 81 83 83 81 80 82 86 80 79 80 79 79 78 79 79 79 82 82 82 81 79 80 82 82 2 The adjusted parity ratio reflects Government payments made directly to farmers. Source: Department of Agriculture. MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY SUPPLY The money supply, seasonally adjusted, rose $0.4 billion in December, to make the increase for the half year since June $0.7 billion. Time deposits declined slightly in December, but rose on a seasonally adjusted basis for the first time in a year. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 j BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 225 225 200 200 1969 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures, billions of dollars] M oney supr>iy Money supj>iy U.S. i| ' GovCurCurernTime Time DeDerency rency ; ment de- l demand mand ; Total outoutTotal posits posits * demand dedeside side deposits posits banks banks posits l 1Dnadjuste d Seasonall}7 ad jus tec 34.2 125.2 125. 1 _ _ _ _ _ ! 159. 3 35.0 129. 1 5.5 126.6 164.0 145.2 36.3 130.4 37. 1 134.9 ! 166.7 4.6 146.7 172.0 132. 1 38.3 156.9 39. 1 3.4 ! 170.4 158. 5 136.7 175.8 141. 3 182. 0 40. 4 41. 2 183.7 146. 2 5.0 1 181.7 187. 5 43. 4 44. 3 203. 1 151. 4 204. 9 156. 7 5.0 i 194.8 201. 0 192.4 153. 7 46. 0 194. 1 47. 0 159. 1 __ _ _ ! 199. 7 5.5 206. 0 43. 2 150. 5 202. 1 201. 3 43. 6 4. 5 151. 7 195. 3 ! 193.6 43. 4 203. 1 151. 4 204. 9 44. 3 156. 7 5.0 __ J 194. 8 201. 0 !i 43. 5 152. 3 202.8 158. 2 4.9 203. 2 43.5 195.8 201. 7 152. 5 202. 4 43.8 202. 4 6.9 194. 8 43. 4 151. 4 196.3 44, 1 152. 7 202. 9 4. 8 202. 3 43.7 151. 3 196.8 195.0 44 2 154. 0 202. 7 202. 3 155. 3 43. 8 5. 4 __ _ _ 198. 1 199. 2 202. 2 44. 5 44. 2 153. 8 150. 3 9. 2 201. 7 194. 4 _ __ 198. 3 44. 8 154. 2 44. 7 152. 3 201. 0 200. 8 6.0 199. 0 197. 0 152. 7 154. 4 45. 2 197.7 45. 0 5.6 197.7 197.8 199.3 45. 3 45. 4 4. 3 194. 5 150. 5 195. 5 153.8 195. 9 199.0 152. 4 194. 1 194. 3 45. 2 153. 7 45. 2 197. 6 5. 3 _ _ _ _ _ 199. 0 45. 6 45. 6 153. 6 153. 7 193. 7 1 199. 1 193. 5 199. 3 4.2 192. 6 153. 4 193. 4 46. 4 5. 1 45. 9 154. 7 199.3 201. 0 46. 0 153. 7 194. 1 47. 0 192.4 159. 1 206. 0 5. 5 199. 7 ; Period 1964: 1965: 1966: 1967: 1968: 1969: 1968: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec^ Nov Dec 1969: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec* __ _ 1 Deposits at all commercial banks. NOTE.—Series revised; for detail see Federal Reserve Bulletin, October 1969. Effective June 9, 1966, balances accumulated for payment of personal loans (about $1.1 billion) are excluded from time deposits and from loans at all commercial banks. Data include Alaska and Hawaii. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 SELECTED LIQUID ASSETS HELD BY THE PUBLIC Public holdings of selected liquid assets rose $81A billion (seasonally adjusted). There was a sharp rise of $11 billior. in demand deposits and currency. Most other asset holdings declined slightly. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 800 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 700 600 500 400 400 300 200 100 ¥ 1963 1964 1969 3/ASSETS OTHER.THAN DEMAND DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY. SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Total selected liquid assets End of period 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1968: Nov Dec 1969: Jan___ Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Get "v Nov Dec v ___ __ _ __ _ __ _. 495.4 530. 5 573. 1 601.5 650.4 709.6 729. 0 699.4 709.6 4 703. 7 705.7 713.2 710. 0 714. 3 713. 8 i 709. 5 713. 1 718. 0 714. 3 720. 6 729. 0 Demand deposits and currency 1 149. 6 156. 7 164. 1 168. 6 180. 7 3 199. 2 206. 2 190. 6 3 199. 2 188. 8 189. 8 192. 4 190. 8 191. 5 194. 1 1 191. 8 193. 2 194. 1 193. 6 195. 0 206. 2 Time d eposits Commercial banks 112. 9 127. 1 147. 1 159. 3 183. 1 203. 8 195. 9 204. 7 203. 8 203. 4 202. 9 201. 9 200. 6 202.7 200. 4 197. 5 195. 7 195.6 195. 4 197. 1 195. 9 1 Agrees in concept with money supply, p. 29, except for deduction ol demand deposits held by mutual savings banks and savings and loan associations. Data for last Wednesday of month. Data prior to July 1969 have not been revised to conform to the money supply revision. 2 Excludes holdings of Government agencies and trust funds, domestic commercial and mutual savings banks, Federal Reserve Banks, and beginning February 1960, savings and loan associations. 30 Mutual savings banks 44 5 49. 0 52.6 55.2 60. 3 64.7 67. 1 64.3 64.7 64. 8 65. 2 65. 5 65. 7 66. 1 66. 3 66. 3 66.4 66. 6 66.7 67.0 67. 1 Postal Savings System .5 .4 .3 .1 Savings and loan shares 90. 9 101. 4 109.8 113.4 123.9 131.0 134. 7 130.8 131.0 131. 0 132. 0 133.4 133. 3 133. 5 133. 6 133. 6 134. 1 135. 3 134.9 135. 3 134. 7 U ^ Onv ernment U.S. Gov- securities ernment maturing savings2 within bonds year 2 49. 0 49. 9 50.5 50.9 51. 9 52.5 52.4 52. 1 52.5 52.5 52. 3 52.2 52. 2 52. 2 52.2 52.2 52.1 52.0 52. 0 52.0 52.4 48. 1 46. 1 48. 6 53. 9 50.5 58.5 72. 7 57.0 58.5 4 63. 4 63.4 67.7 67.5 68.3 67.3 68.1 71.6 74.6 71. 7 74. 2 72. 7 3 Estimates for Dec. 31. * Beginning 1969 series have been adjusted to conform to the new budget concept. NOTE.—See Note, p. 29. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. BANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, DEBITS, AND RESERVES Total bank credit (seasonally adjusted) fell over $1 billion in December. Loans increased by $700 million and total investments declined by almost $2 billion. Total reserves of member banks increased almost $250 million. Borrowed reserves declined. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 500 ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 400 INVESTMENTS IN U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 100 100 1963 *SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW SOURCEi BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Bank Weekly debits reporting outside large commercial New York Total Investr nents City (232 banks Loans, End of period loans excluding centers) , and seasonally interU.S. GovOther Commercial investbank securi- and indus- adjusted ernment ments annual securities ties trial loans rates * Billions of dollars 1963 246.2 149. 6 61.7 35. 0 38. 8 2, 199 1 1964 267. 2 167. 7 42. 1 £, 706 60.7 38. 7 3 294.4 192.6 3,013 1965 57.1 44.8 53. 1 310. 5 208.2 53.6 48.7 1966 60.7 3,421 346. 5 225.4 1967 ___ 59. 7 65. 8 s, 740 61. 4 384.6 251.6 61.5 4,367 71.5 73.1 1968 398. 6 276. 2 51. 8 70.5 1969 * 81. 6 384.6 4,679 251.6 61.5 1968: Dec 73.1 71.5 253. 7 71. 4 72. 9 4,888 385. 9 60.8 1969: Jan 387. 9 4, 903 73.7 258. 4 58. 1 71. 5 Feb 386. 6 257. 3 57. 4 71. 9 Mar 75. 0 4,841 72. 1 4,982 Apr 390. 7 261. 0 76. 7 57. 7 264. 1 72. 0 392. 2 5,050 56. 1 76. 6 May 264. 3 72. 0 5,230 56. 2 78. 4 392.5 4 June_ _ _ 4 4 4 269. 2 397. 3 71. 8 June 56. 3 71. 0 397. 7 269. 9 56. 8 July _ 77.6 5,334 270. 3 70. 3 397. 5 Aiisc 56. 9 5,282 76. 6 54. 7 271. 3 70. 5 5, 426 Sept ___ . _ 396. 5 78. 1 70. 1 5, 399 273. 3 396. 8 77.6 53. 4 Get "_p 275. 5 78. 0 53. 2 399. 7 71. 0 5,277 Nov v 51. 8 276. 2 70. 5 81. 6 5,361 Dec 398. 6 All comn lercial bank s (s easonally adjusted da ta) 1 Debits during period to demand deposit accounts eicept interbank and U.S. Government. Now series beginning January 1964. 2 Averages of daily figures. Annual data are for December. 8 New series; see Federal Reserve Bulletin, March 1967. < New series; for detail sec Federal Rezcrrc Bulletin, August 1969. A11 membe r banks Total reserves 20, 746 21,609 22, 719 23, 830 25, 260 27, 221 28, 012 27, 221 28, 063 27, 291 26, 754 27, 079 27, 903 27, 317 26, 27, 26, 27, 27, 28, 980 079 971 340 764 012 2 Borrowings at Free Excess Federal reserves Reserve reserves Banks Millions o f dollars 327 536 411 243 452 454 392 557 345 238 455 765 1,087 238 455 765 217 697 824 228 217 918 152 996 300 1,402 343 1,407 116 303 236 143 253 238 1, 190 1, 249 1, 067 1, 135 1,241 1,087 209 168 —2 — 165 107 -310 -849 — 310 — 480 — 596 -701 -844 -1, 102 - 1, 064 - 1, 074 -946 -831 -992 -988 -849 NOTE.—Effective June 1966, balances accumulated for payment ot personal loans (about $1.1 billion) are excluded from loans at all commercial banks, and certain certificates of CCC and Export-Import Bank totaling about $1 billion are included in other securities rather than in loans. Data include Alaska and Hawaii. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 31 CONSUMER AND REAL ESTATE CREDIT Total consumer credit increased $2.8 billion in December. Seasonally adjusted instalment credit rose $600 millionBILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (ENLARGED SCALE) INSTALMENT CREDIT EXTENDED SOURCE, BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Consu mer credit outs tan din g (end of p eriod; Consum er instalme nt credit e stended imad jus ted) and r<3paid (seas onally adjuisted) [nstalment Automob ile paper To tal Non4.utomoJ Total instal-2 Extended Repaid Extended Repaid Total Personal bile ment paper loans 1961 57, 982 1962 63, 821 1963 71, 739 1964 80, 268 1965 90, 314 1966 97, 543 1967 102, 132 1968 4 113, 191 1969 122, 200 1968: Nov .. _ 110, 035 Dec 113, 191 1969: Jan 112, 117 Feb _ _ _ 111, 569 Mar 111, 950 113, 231 Apr__ 114, 750 May June 115, 995 July 116, 597 Aug 117, 380 Sept 118, 008 Get 118,515 Nov 4 119, 378 122, 200 Dec __ 43, 891 48, 720 55, 486 62, 692 71, 324 77, 539 80, 926 89, 890 98, 100 87, 953 89, 890 89, 492 89, 380 89, 672 90, 663 91, 813 93, 087 93, 833 94, 732 95, 356 95, 850 96, 478 98, 100 17, 135 19, 381 22, 254 24, 934 28, 619 30, 556 30, 724 34, 130 36, 800 33, 925 34, 130 34, 013 34, 053 34, 262 34, 733 35, 230 35, 804 36, 081 36, 245 36, 321 36, 599 36, 650 36, 800 11, 673 13, 414 15, 618 17, 848 20, 412 22, 187 24, 018 26, 936 30, 000 26, 429 26, 936 26, 911 27, 048 27, 230 27, 628 27, 983 28, 305 28, 541 28, 957 29, 207 29, 312 29, 529 30, 000 A Also includes other consumer goods paper, and repair and modernization loans, not shown separately. 2 Consists of single-payment loans, charge accounts, and service credit. J End of period, unadjusted. 4 Estimates. 32 14, 091 15, 101 16, 253 17, 576 18, 990 20, 004 21, 206 23, 301 24, 100 22, 082 23, 301 22, 625 22, 189 22, 278 22, 568 22, 937 22, 908 22, 764 22, 648 22, 652 22, 665 22, 900 24, 100 49, 048 56, 191 63, 591 70, 670 78, 586 82, 335 84, 693 97, 053 102, 800 8,288 8, 277 8, 371 8,414 8, 381 8,720 8,680 8, 705 8,521 8, 680 8, 669 8,661 8, 632 8,650 48, 124 51, 360 56, 825 63, 470 69, 957 76, 120 81, 306 88, 089 94, 600 7,454 7,502 7, 730 7,616 7,735 7,960 7,834 7, 910 7,899 8, 080 7,971 7,992 8,012 8, 050 16, 029 19, 694 22, 126 24, 046 27, 227 27, 341 26, 667 31, 424 32, 500 2, 681 2, 592 2,661 2,716 2,730 2,772 2,757 2,725 2, 582 2, 634 2, 794 2,808 2,683 2, 650 16, 552 17, 447 19, 254 21, 369 23, 543 25, 404 26, 499 28, 018 29, 900 2,363 2,357 2,467 2,468 2,501 2,519 2,488 2,460 2,471 2, 562 2,498 2,463 2,503 2,500 Mortgage debt outstanding nonfarm, 1- to 4family houses 3 153, 000 166, 500 182, 200 197, 600 212, 900 223, 600 236, 100 251, 200 266, 800 251, 200 254, 800 259, 500 263, 400 266, 800 NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning January and August 1959, respectively. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Home Loan Bank Board. BOND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES Interest rates rose steeply in December. Most rates were slightly lower in mid-January than earlier in the month. PERCENT PER ANNUM 10 PERCENT PER- ANNUM 10 CORPORATE Aaa BONDS (MOODY'S) / / \ 4 -^^ 1963 1969 SOURCE: SEE TABIE BELOW Period 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966_ 1967 1968 1969 1968: Nov Dec 1969: Jan. _ Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov___ Dec__ Week ended: 1969: Dec 1970: Jan COUNCIL OF 'ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] High-grade U.S. Gc>vernment secui*ity yields municipal j 3-month 1 3-5 year bonds Taxable 2 3 Treasury (Standard4 & issues bonds bills i Poors) 2. 77 8 3. 57 3. 95 3. 18 3. 72 3. 157 4. 00 3. 23 3. 54 9 4.06 4. 15 3. 22 4.21 4. 22 3. 954 3. 27 4. 88 1 5. 16 4. 65 3. 82 4.32 1 4.85 3.96 5.07 5.59 5.26 5.339 4.51 6. 85 6. 12 6.67 7 5. 81 5.36 5.49 2 5. 47 4.68 5. 916 5.99 5.66 4.91 6. 04 5. 74 4. 95 6. 17 7 6. 16 6.15 6 5. 86 5. 10 6. 08 0 6. 33 6. 05 5. 34 6.150 6. 15 5. 84 5. 29 6.33 5.47 ! 6. 077 5.85 6. 64 6. 49 3 6. 05 5. 83 7. 02 5. 84 7. 004 6. 07 6. 02 7.08 7. 00 7 6. 07 7. 58 6. 32 i 7. 12 9 6. 35 7. 47 7. 04 0 6. 27 6. 21 7.57 _ __ 7. 19 3 6. 52 6. 37 0 7. 98 7. 72 6. 81 6. 91 • ! 6. 91 4 8. 10 6. 94 26_.. 7. 80 7.00 8. 26 6. 93 2 c6 8. 09 6 6. 92 6. 82 9 7. 96 0 8. 21 16 66 7. 83 7 8. 10 6. 84 6. 73 23 7. 78 9 8.04 6.83 1 3 2 Rate on new issues within period. Selected note and bond issues. April 1953 to date, bonds due or callable 10 years and after. 6 «Weekly data are Wednesday figures. Not charted. 6 Data for first of the month, based on the maximum permissible interest rate (7H percent beginning late January 1969) and 30-year mortgages paid in 15 years. 4. 33 4. 26 4. 40 4.49 5. 13 5. 51 6. 18 7.03 6. 19 6.45 6. 59 6. 66 6. 85 6. 89 6. 79 6. 98 7. 08 6. 97 7. 14 7.33 7. 35 7. 72 Baa 5. 02 4.86 4. 83 4. 87 5.67 6.23 6.94 7.81 7.01 7.23 7. 32 7. 30 7. 51 7.54 7. 52 7. 70 7.84 7.86 8. 05 8. 22 8. 25 8. 65 Prime commercial paper, 4-6 months 3. 26 3.55 3. 97 4, 38 5. 55 5. 10 5.90 7. 83 5.92 6.17 6. 53 6. 62 6. 82 7. 04 7. 35 8. 23 8. 65 8.33 8. 48 8. 57 8. 46 8. 84 7. 84 7. 90 7. 91 7. 92 7. 90 8.80 8. 89 8. 95 8. 86 8. 79 9. 00 9.00 9. 08 8. 75 8. 70 Corporal ^e bonds (Moo dy's) Aaa FHA new home mortgage yields 5 5. 61 5.47 5. 45 5.46 6.29 6. 55 7.13 8. 19 7. 29 7.36 7.50 7. 99 8. 05 8.06 8. 06 8. 35 8. 36 8. 36 8. 40 8. 48 8. 48 Sources: Treasury Department, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Housing Administration, Standard & Poor's Corporation, and Moody's Investors Service. 33 COMMON STOCK PRICES, YIELD, AND EARNINGS The common stock price index dropped sharply in December. However, prices made a slight recovery in early January/ and then declined again. Index, 1941-43=10. Index, 1941-43=10 MONTHLY WEEKLY 110 11f) COMPOSIT E PRICE INDEX FOR 500 CO MMON STOCKS 100 on -v. Sx/./- /""I ^\S ^-O on _/-^^ 7ft 60 100 on Rn 7O I 1 1 1 11 I 1 1 M M 1 1 1 1 1 I.I PERCENT ,-,^ HA V\ \\f -^"1 1 ! M 1 1 ! I M ! M ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 M I i I I I 1 i i l l 1 i 1 I i i 1 l i i i 1i 1 1 1 1 1 II 11 1 It M PERCENT RATIO RATIO PRICE/EARNINGS RA TIO ON COMMON STOCKS -OA 10 1 ' ' 1963 / ~~~~ 1~~^--—^r^ 1 15 1 ' 1 i ! 1964 i 1965 i 1 t ! ! 1966 g 1 ! 1967 SOURCE: STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION 34 i 1968 l | Total 81.37 88.17 85.26 _ _ . ___ _ I 1969 ! K 10 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 91. 93 98.70 97. 84 106. 48 102. 04 101. 46 99. 30 101. 26 104. 62 99. 14 94. 71 94. 18 94. 51 95. 52 96. 21 91. 11 90. 29 90. 97 91. 98 92. 80 91. 55 89. 68 1 Total Consumers' goods Capital goods Public utilities Railroads Dividend yield 2 (percent) 86. 19 93.48 91. 08 99. 18 107. 49 107. 13 116.01 110. 97 110. 15 108. 20 110. 68 114. 53 108. 59 103. 68 103. 39 103. 97 105. 07 105. 86 100. 48 1941-^13 = 10 76. 35 73. 84 85. 26 81. 94 84. 86 74. 10 79. 18 96. 96 105. 77 86.33 103. 75 87. 06 111. 44 91.91 87. 69 106. 56 87. 93 105. 47 103. 76 86. 69 88.21 105. 54 91. 57 108. 66 102. 68 88. 12 83. 04 100. 55 83. 44 100. 90 102. 27 85. 26 87. 29 103. 67 104. 68 89. 84 100. 31 85. 62 69. 91 76.08 68. 21 68. 10 66.42 62. 64 70.54 68. 65 69. 24 66. 07 65. 63 66. 91 63. 29 61. 32 59.20 57. 84 58. 80 59. 46 55. 28 45. 46 46.78 46. 34 46. 72 48.84 45.95 55. 19 54. 11 54. 78 50. 46 49. 53 49. 97 46. 43 43. 00 42. 04 42. 03 41. 75 40.63 36. 69 3. 01 3.00 3. 40 3.20 3.07 3.24 2.93 3.06 3. 10 3. 17 3. 11 3. 02 3. 18 3. 34 3.37 3. 33 3. 33 3. 31 3. 52 99. 62 100. 33 101. 39 102. 18 100. 80 98. 72 98.07 100. 21 101. 67 102. 03 101. 66 99. 10 84. 32 86.07 86. 65 86. 72 86.40 85. 82 54. 68 55. 27 56. 05 57. 13 56. 33 55. 22 35. 72 36. 41 37. 37 38. 36 37. 99 37. 56 3.59 3.51 3.48 3.46 3. 50 3.56 1 Includes 500 common stocks: 425 industrials, 55 public utilities, and 20 railroads. Weekly indexes for capital and consumer goods are Wednesday figures; all2 other weekly indexes are averages of daily figures. Aggregate cash dividends (based on latest known annual rate) divided by the aggregate monthly market value of the stocks in the group. Annual yields I 15 Price index l Industrials Period 1964 __ 1965 1966 ___ 1967___ 1968___ 1969 _ 1968: Dec_ _ _ _ _ 1969: Jan _ Feb Mar Apr Mav _ _ _ June _ Julv Aug _ __ Sept __ Get _ _ _ Nov. Dec Week ended: 1969: Dec 19__ 26_ 1970: Jan 2 44 9 16 44 23 —-^_ 1""-•^•••* "" Price/ earnings ratio 3 18.08 17. 08 14. 92 17.52 17.20 17.54 17.68 16. 59 15. 70 1103 averages uvoidgoo of vi monthly .Luv.u.i/juj.j' uaua. TT coA.ipr uai>a i _ figures. ^ are data. Weekly data zuc are Wednesday Ratio of price index for last day in quarter?r to quarterly earning earnings (seasonally Adjusted annual rate). Annual ratios are aver ages a g< of" quarterly * - data. •> • * Not charted. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation. FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS, EXPENDITURES, AND NET LENDING For fiscal year 1969f there was a total surplus of just over $3 billion. In the first 5 months of fiscal 1970 there was a deficit of $9.7 billion/ a year earlier the deficit was $11.7 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 80 (ENLARGED SCALE) +20 SURPLUS (+) OR DEFICIT (-) (ENLARGED SCALE) +20 +10 +10 RECEIPT-EXPENDITURE ACCOUNT 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 1959 1960 •1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1967 1966 1968 1969 1970 FISCAL YEARS SOURCES: TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND BUREAU OF THE BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Budget receipts, expenditures, and net lending Period Receipts Fiscal year: 1959 ___ 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 Cumulative totals for first 5 months: Fiscal year 1969 Fiscal vear 1970 __ _ 1 Expenditures Surplus or deficit (-) 79.2 92. 5 94 4 99. 7 106. 6 112. 7 116. 8 130. 9 149.6 153. 7 187.8 89.5 90.3 96.6 104. 5 111. 5 118. 0 117.2 130.8 153. 2 172. 8 183. 1 -10.3 2. 2 — 2.2 — 4.8 -4. 9 -5. 4 67. 1 74. 1 77.7 82. 3 -10.7 -8.2 Excludes non-interest-bearing public debt securities held by IMF. - Surplus of $36 million. Loan account Receiplb-expenditure iiccount (2) -.3 -3.6 -19.1 4. 7 Net lending 2. 7 1. 9 1.2 2. 4 —.1 .5 1. 2 3. 8 5. 1 6. 0 1. 5 1. 0 1.5 Total surplus or deficit (-) Gross Feeleral debt (end of period) Total1 Held by the public -12. 9 .3 -3.4 — 7. 1 — 4.8 -5.9 -1.6 -3.8 -8. 7 -25. 2 3.2 287. 7 290. 9 292.9 303. 3 310. 8 316.8 323. 2 329. 5 341.3 369. 8 367. 1 235. 0 237.2 238.6 248.4 254. 5 257. 6 261. 6 264. 7 267. 5 290. 6 279. 5 -11. 7 -9.7 375. 1 381. 2 295.4 291. 3 Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget. 35 FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In fiscal year 1969, receipts were $34 billion over a year earlier while outlays were up $6 billion. In the first 5 months of fiscal 1970 receipts were $7.0 billion over a year earlier while outlays were $5.0 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 100 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 80 80 60 OTHER RECEIPTS 40 1 1 ........m,.,...""""""'""" " """" 20 CORPORATION INCOME TAXES \ j 1 J 0 120 120 20 1959 1967 1964 1965 1970 1969 FISCAL YEARS SOURCES: TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND BUREAU OF THE BUDGET. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Receipts Outlays National defense Period Total Fiscal year: 1959___. 79.2 92.5 94.4 99.7 106.6 112.7 116.8 130. 9 149.6 153. 7 I960. 1961. 1962. 1963_ 1964_ 1965. 1966_ 1967. 1968_ 1969. Cumulative totals for first 5 months: Fiscal year 1969 Fiscal year 1970 1 Expenditure account. 36 j ; j j Individual Corporation Other 36.7 40.7 41.3 45.6 47.6 48.7 17.3 25.2 21.5 21.0 20.5 21.6 23.5 187." 8 48.8 55. 4 61.5 68.7 87.2 25.5 30. 1 34.0 28.7 36.7 30.3 32.1 33.6 37.4 40.5 42. 6 45.3 54. 1 56.3 63.9 67. 1 74. 1 32.4 37.3 25. 1 28. 2 9. 6 ! 8.7 | Total Total Department of Defense, military 1 Interna- \ tional i Health affairs ! e and and j income finance ' security Other 118.6 118.4 134.7 158.3 178.8 184.6 46.6 45.9 47.4 51.1 52.3 53.6 49.6 56.8 70.1 80.5 81.2 41.5 41.5 43.3 46.9 48. 1 49.6 46.0 54.2 67.5 77.4 77.9 3. 1 3.4 4.5 4. 1 4. 1 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.6 3.8 17.7 18.7 21.8 23.3 25.2 26.6 27.2 31.3 37.6 43.5 49. 1 24.5 24.5 25.2 27.9 29.7 34.3 37. 3 42. 1 46.0 50.2 50.4 78.8 83. 8 32. 9 33.8 31.4 32. 5 1.8 1.8 19. 9 21.6 24. 1 26. 7 92. 1 92.2 97.8 106.8 111.3 3. 3 Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget. FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS According to preliminary estimates, Federal receipts rose more than $25 billion in calendar 1969 and expenditures increased almost $101/s billion, yielding a surplus of $9% billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 200 140 120 100 +20 +20 SURPLUS E&a k22l H m I! II VZA "" %A DEFICIT I -20 I 1963 I \ \ \ 1964 ! 1 1965 ! nil n m ! 1 1 1966 CALENDAR YEARS M M M j% H H ^ ii i 1 ! 1 1967 1 1 I i i i 1 1968 SOURCE! DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE — -20 1969 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Fed era1 Governrnent expeiaditures Federal (jovernme nt receipt s Period Fiscal year: 1966 1967 1968 1969 Calendar year: 1966 1967 1968 1969" 1968: III. IV. 1969: I II._ III. IV* Surplus or Subsidies GrantsPurless ill -a id (-), current Net chases Trans- to State interest surplus income of goods fer payand and local paid ments of Govt. product and enter- accounts services governprises 111 en ts Indirect ContriPersonal Corpobusiness bution s rate tax and for Total nontax profits tax and nontax social intax receipt? accruals accruals surance Total 132. 8 147. 3 160. 9 192. 7 57. 6 64. 4 71.3 90. 5 31. 0 31. 1 34. 3 40. 0 15. 7 16. 1 17.2 18. 6 28. 5 35. 8 38. 0 43. 6 131. 154. 172. 186. 9 6 4 7 71.7 85. 3 95. 3 101. 1 34. 2 39. 4 44. 5 50.3 14.8 17.6 18.9 9. 0 9. 9 10. 8 12. 3 4. 5 5. 1 4. 1 4. 1 0. 9 -7. 2 -11.5 6.0 142. 5 151. 1 176. 3 201. 6 181. 4 187. 3 198.6 202. 8 201. 3 61. 7 67. 5 79. 5 95. 6 83. 7 87. 4 93.8 96. 9 95. 0 96. 6 32. 1 30. 6 38. 3 40.4 38.4 39. 8 40. 7 41. 0 39.8 15. 7 16. 3 18. 0 18. 8 18. 3 18. 5 18. 5 18.6 19. 1 18.9 33. 0 36. 7 40. 5 46. 9 40. 9 41. 7 45. 6 46. 4 47. 5 48. 1 142.8 163. 8 181. 5 191.9 184. 2 187. 4 188. 5 189. 3 193. 6 196.2 77.8 90. 7 99. 5 102. 0 100. 9 101. 9 101. 6 100. 6 103. 2 102. 7 35.7 42.2 47.8 52.3 48.7 50. 0 50. 8 52. 1 52. 7 53. 7 14.4 15. 9 18. 3 19. 9 18.4 19. 0 19.0 19.3 19.8 21.4 9.5 10. 3 11. 6 13. 0 11.7 12. 2 12. 5 12.9 13. 1 13. 5 5.4 4. 7 4. 3 4. 6 4. 6 4. 4 4. 6 4.4 4. 6 4. 9 2 -12.7 -5. 2 9.7 -2.8 -. 1 10. 1 13.5 NOTE: Receipts for 1969 reflect repeal of investment tax credit. Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. 12. 7 7.7 Source: Department of Commerce. 37 UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE POSTAGE AND FEES PAID U.S GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS WASHINGTON, D.C. 2O4O2 OFFICIAL BUSINESS First-Class Mail Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING The Nation's Income, Expenditure, and Saving Gross National Product or Expenditure National Income Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Measures of Unemployment and Part-Time Employment Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Weekly Hours of Work—Selected Industries Average Hourly and Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Production of Selected Manufactures Weekly Indicators of Production New Construction New Housing Starts and Applications for Financing Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and New Orders Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. Exports and Imports of Goods and Services U.S. Balance of International Payments PRICES Consumer Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Supply Selected Liquid Assets Held by the Public Bank Loans, Investments, Debits, and Reserves Consumer and Real Estate Credit Bond Yields and Interest Rates Common Stock Prices, Yield, and Earnings FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Budget Receipts, Expenditures, and Net Lending Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis page 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 . 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 NOTE.—Detail in these tables will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Data for Alaska and Hawaii are not included unless specifically noted. Unless otherwise stated, all dollar figures are in current prices. P Indicates preliminary and not available. * Indicates less than $50 million. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.20402 2i Price 25 cents per copy, $3 per year ; $4 foreign. Domestic air mail, $3.60 additional per year. 38 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 U.S. G O V E R N M E N T P R I N T I N G O F F I C E : 1970