Full text of Economic Indicators : January 1952
The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
82d Congress, 2d Session Economic Indicate 1932 Prepared for the joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1952 JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT (Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, Chairman EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Via Chairman JOHN J. SPARKMAN, Alabama PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois WILLIAM BENTON, Connecticut ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas RICHARD W. BOLLING, Missouri CLINTON D. McKINNON, California JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts J. CALEB BOGGS, Delaware GSOVBB W. ENSLET, Staff Director JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS (Created pursuant to Sec. 4 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) LEON H. KEYSERLING, Chairman JOHN D. CLARK ROY BLOUGH [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S. J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives e>f the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Committee on the Economic Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Committee on the Economic Report; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949 Charts drawn by Graphics Unit, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce 11 Contents THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY Page The Nation's Economic Budget Gross National Product 1 ": PRICES Consumers' Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers Stock Prices 3 4 ^ EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES Civilian Labor Force Nonagricultural Employment—Selected Industries Average Weekly Hours—Selected Industries Average Hourly Earnings Selected I n d u s ! ries Average Weekly l'!:innfu;s Scleciol I n d u s ! D C S ,. 7 8 9 10 11 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY I ml MM i i.t 1 l ' i l i d i u I i o n W e e k l y Product ion Selected i n d i c a t o r s P r o d u c t ion ol Selected M a n u f a c t u r e s New ( . o u s t r u c t i o n New Housing Starts Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment New Corporate Security Issues Inventories and Sales Merchandise Exports and Imports 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 PURCHASING POWER National Income Corporate Profits Personal Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving Per Capita Disposable Income Farm Income 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 CREDIT, MONEY, AND FEDERAL FINANCE Bank Loans and Investments Consumer Credit Bond Yields and Interest Rates Money Supply „= „ „ Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public. . 28 29 30 31 32 111 TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONG. THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET The Government cash surplus of $6.7 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first half of 1951 was replaced by a deficit of $5.1 billion in the second half. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES,SEASONALLY A D J U S T E D CONSUMERS I95I FIRST HALF I95I SECOND HALF BUSINESS I95I FIRST HALF I95I SECOND HALF 1951 FIRST HALF I9SI SECOND HALF GOVERNMENT (Federal, Stote.and l o c a l ) 1951 FIRST HALF * T r a n s f e r payments 1951 SECONDHALF EXCESS OF RECEIPTS (t), EXPENDITURES (-) FIRST HALF -25 0 SECOND HALF 25 50 -50 -25 0 25 CONSUMERS BUSINESS INTERNATIONAL GOVERMENT (Federal,State, and local) TRANSFER PAYMENTS ARE INCLUDED IN RECEIPTS OR EXPENDITURES OF THE SEPARATE ACCOUNTS BUT NOT IN THE TOTAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT. NOTE: SEE PAGE Z FOR THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET TOTAL [GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT). SOURCE: ANNUAL ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JANUARY I9SZ, APPENDIX A. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT Gross national product rose by about $5K billion from the third to the fourth quarter of 1951. expenditures rose by $3 billion; personal consumption also expanded. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS National security BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 350 350 PRELIMINARY ESTfMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ftDVtSERS COUNCIL OF SOURCE:DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED) ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Total gross national product Period 1939 - - 1944 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 3 1951 - -- 91. 3 213.7 211. 1 233. 3 259. 0 257. 3 282. 6 326. 8 Personal consump- Gross private Net foreign domestic investment tion expend- investment itures • 67. 5 111. 6 146. 9 165. 6 177.9 180. 2 193. 6 204. 4 9.9 7.7 28. 7 30.2 42. 7 33. 0 48. 9 58. 8 0.9 0 1 &* J. 4.6 8.9 1. 9 .5 -2.3 .1 Government purchases of goods and services Total 13.1 96.5 30.9 28. 6 36.6 43. 6 42. 5 63. 5 National security ' Other ' 1.2 87. 5 18. 5 12.0 15. 5 18. 9 18. 9 37.8 11.9 9.0 12.4 16.6 21. 1 24. 7 23.6 25.7 16.7 17. 1 17.9 23. 9 28.8 35.3 42. 0 44. 9 24.6 23. 0 22. 9 23.9 24. 6 25. 1 26.2 27. 1 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1950: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1951: First quarter . _ Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 3 264. 4 275.0 287.4 303.7 319. 0 327.8 327. 6 333. 0 184. 7 188.7 202. 5 198. 4 208. 2 201.7 202. 5 205. 0 40. 1 47. 9 47. 3 60.2 60. 1 (35. 6 55. 7 54.0 -1.7 -1.6 -3.2 -2. 7 -2. 7 .0 1. 2 2. 0 1 Based on Treasury Buttftin break-down of Fede: and 1 related activities," Atomic Energy, Mutual Dei Residua]; expenditures by the Federal Governmi __ 3 Preliminary estimates based on incomplete data; fourth quarter by Council of'Economic Advisers. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. 41.3 40. 1 40. 8 47.8 53. 4 60. 4 68. 2 72.0 CONSUMERS' PRICES Consumers' prices rose another 0.6 percent between mid-October and mid-November. Apparei prir- were the only group to decline. Retail food prices, which increased 1.0 percent, advanced another 0.6 percen: end of the year. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE 24 O PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. [1935-39 = 100] Period 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June 15 November 15 December 15 1951: January 15 __ . February 15 March 15 April 15 May 15 June 15 July 15 - _-. August 15September 15 October 15- 1 Novernber 15 1 All items 99.4 123. 7 125. 7 128. 6 139. 5 171.9 170. 2 171.9 170 2 176 4 178 8 181. 5 183. 8 184 5 184. 6 185 4 185 2 185. 5 185. 5 186 6 187. 4 188. 6 Food 95. 2 138.0 136. 1 139. 1 159. 6 210. 2 201. 9 204. 5 203 1 210 8 216 3 221 9 226 0 226 2 225 7 227 4 226 9 227 7 227 0 227 3 229 2 231. 4 Apparel 100.5 129. 7 138.8 145. 9 160.2 198. 0 190. 1 187. 7 184 6 194 3 195 5 198 5 202 0 203 1 203 6 204 0 204 0 203 3 203 6 209 0 208 9 207.6 Fuel, electricity, and refrigeration 104.3 99.0 107. 7 108. 7 109.8 109. 1 109. 5 110. 3 110. 1 112.4 121.2 133.9 137. 5 126. 4 131.0 140.6 130 9 139 1 132 5 142 5 142 8 132 9 133 2 143 3 143 9 134 0 144 2 134 7 144 0 135 1 143 6 135 4 135 7 143 6 144 0 136 2 144 2 136 8 137 5 144 4 144 6 138 2 144. 8 138. 9 Rent Housefurnishings 101.3 125.6 136.4 145.8 159.2 195.8 189. 0 190. 2 184 8 201 1 203 2 207 4 209 7 210 7 211 8 212 6 212 5 212 4 210 8 211 1 210 4 210. 8 Miscellaneous 100.7 115. 8 121. 3 124. 1 128. 8 149. 9 154 6 156.5 154 6 159 2 160 6 162 1 163 2 164 3 164 6 165 0 164 8 165 0 165 4 166 0 166 6 168.4 A special survey of food prices indicated a rise of 0.2 percent between November 15 and December In and an additional increase of 0.4 by December 26. NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities. _ Source: Department of Labor. The index has been revised, beginning with January 1940. to correct the downward bias resulting from the failure to take account of the differentials in rent between newly built housing and comparable existing dwellings. Certain changes, starting with January 1950, in commodity coverage and weighting were linked into tbe index providing an improved and consistent series. WHOLESALE PRICES Aside from some minor fluctuations in farm prices, wholesale prices have been very stable since early November. Industrial prices have been especially noteworthy in this respect. PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE 220 j F PERCENT OF t926 AVERAGE 220 M A M J J A S 0 N D[J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N DJJ F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N Q J F M A M J J . 1951 1946 J947 1948 1949 1950 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. [1926=100] Period 1942 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June 1951 monthly average 1950: November December 1951: January February March April May June July August September October November 1 December Week ended: 1951: December 4111825 ~ 1952: January 1_ 1 Estimates based on change in weekly dat$, 98. 8 121.1 152. 1 165. 1 155.0 161.5 157.3 180.5 171.7 175.3 180. 1 183.6 184.0 183.6 182. 9 181.7 179.4 178. 0 177.6 178. 1 178.3 178.3 105. 9 148.9 181.2 188. 3 165.5 170.4 165.9 196.4 183.7 187.4 194.2 202. 6 203. 8 202. 5 199.6 198. 6 194.0 190.6 189. 2 192.3 195. 2 194. 2 99.6 130.7 168.7 179. 1 161.4 166.2 162. 1 186.9 175.2 179.0 182. 2 187.6 186.6 185.8 187.3 186. 3 186.0 187.3 188.0 189.4 188.8 187.5 Other than 'arm products and foods 95.5 109.5 135. 2 151.0 147. 3 153. 2 148.7 169. 4 163.7 166. 7 170.3 171.8 172.4 172.3 171.6 170.5 168.6 167. 2 167. 0 166.7 166. 9 167.4 177. 1 177. 1 177.0 177.3 177.2 177.2 193.9 193.7 193.2 195. 1 193. 7 193.9 187.5 188.4 188. 9 189.2 189.2 188.8 165.5 165. 6 165.6 165.5 165.4 165.3 All commodities Farm products Source: Department of Labor. Foods PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS In December, prices received by farmers advanced moderately and prices paid were unchanged. rose 1 point to 1 07. PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE The parity rano PERCENT OF !910->^ 350 J F 1946 * 1947 1948 RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TfiXES AND WAGE RATES. -SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1910-14=1001 Prices paid by Prices farmers (includreceived ing interest, Parity ratio ' by farmers taxes, and wage rates) Period 1939 1942 1944 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 monthly average monthly average ~ monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average _ monthly average monthly average -_ June 15 1951 monthly average 1950- November 15 December 15 1951: January 15 February 15-_ - _ -_ March 15 April 15 May 15 June 15 July 15 ... August 15 September 15 October 1 5 --_ November 1 5 _ . December 1 5 _ _ _ _ 1 3 __ _ _ _ _ - _ - - - _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ - . __ _ - _ . _ ._ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2 2 95 158 196 234 275 285 249 256 247 302 276 286 300 313 311 309 305 301 294 292 291 296 301 305 122 151 182 207 239 259 250 255 254 281 263 265 272 27 6 280 283 283 282 282 282 282 283 284 9S4 Ratio of index of prices received to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. Includes wartime subsidy payments paid on beef cattle, sheep, lambs, milk, and butterfat between October 1943 and June 1946. Source: Department of Agriculture. 93330—52 2 78 105 108 113 115 110 100 100 97 107 105 108 110 113 111 109 108 107 104 104 103 105 106 ir>7 STOCK PRICES Most stock prices moved upward in December. PERCENT OF 1939 AVERAGE 250 PERCENT OF 1939 AVERAGE 250 J J A S 0 N D 1951 SOURCE: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION. Period Weeklv average: 1940 . 1942 ._. 1946 1949 . -1950 June 1951 -_ 1950: December. _ __ _ 1951: January __ February March _ April May June July August September October November December _ _ Week ended: 1951: December 1 8 15 ___ 22 29__. 1952: January 5 12 Composite index > [1939=100] Manufacturing Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Transportation Utilities Trade, finance, and service Mining 90. 6 74.9 149. 6 127. 6 154. 1 158. 3 184.7 165. 2 176.7 184. 0 179.9 183. 1 181. 6 178. 8 181.8 189.7 194. 4 191. 4 185.0 190. 2 93.4 75. 5 146. 6 132. 1 165. 7 171. 1 206. 6 180. 4 194. 2 203.0 198.4 203. 8 202. 6 199. 9 204. 4 214.8 220. 4 215. 8 207. 5 214. 5 92. 5 73.7 138. 8 116.0 150. 4 156. 0 178.3 161. 7 174.8 181. 6 178.2 181.2 175.3 168. 9 170. 3 178. 5 185.2 185. 1 178. 4 182. 1 94. 2 77. 1 154.4 147.2 180. 2 185. 0 233.0 197.9 212. 3 222. 8 217.0 224. 8 228. 1 228. 7 236. 2 248. 8 253.0 244. 3 234. 6 244. 8 99. 1 90.8 202. 6 138.8 159. 9 149. 5 199. 2 184.4 202.0 213. 1 200. 0 201. 9 196. 7 188. 3 187. 9 195. 5 203.6 203. 3 194. 0 203.6 97.7 69. 8 121.0 98. 1 107. 2 114. 8 112. 5 106 5 110.3 112. 1 112.9 111.4 110. 4 109.9 111.2 114. 1 115.0 114. 3 113. 8 115.0 86. 7 71. 3 204.3 160. 5 183.8 182.4 208. 0 195. 7 205. 1 213.2 209. 7 207. 8 206. 0 200. 9 202. 2 206.0 214. 4 214.0 207. 8 209.0 75.9 59.7 125. 5 129.2 143. 5 143.0 204.9 159. 7 175.9 184. 2 176.7 183 4 187.7 186.0 195. 2 218.6 230.9 243. 6 238.8 238. 1 187.0 190. 9 190. 1 191. 1 192. 1 193. 5 194. 1 210.0 214. -8 214. 2 216. 2 217. 5 219. 0 219. 8 180. 1 183. 6 181. 4 181.5 183. 8 183. 9 183.8 237.8 243. 9 244. 8 248.5 248. 9 250. 9 253.3 198. 6 208. 2 204. 6 203.4 203.0 207. 0 208.6 114.2 115. 4 115. 1 114. 7 115. 4 115. 7 116.7 209. 5 211. 3 209. 2 207. 1 207.8 209. 6 208. 4 233.8 242. 7 238. 1 238. 9 237. 0 235.0 242. 3 1 Includes 265 common stocks, distributed as follows: 14 for mining, 98 for durable goods manufacturing, 72 for nondurable goods manufacturing, 21 for transportation, 28 for utilities, and 32 for trade, finance, and service. Source: Securities and Exchange Commission. EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE A total of 61 million persons were engaged in civilian employment in December. An increase of 320,0 agricultural employment was more than offset by a seasonal decline in agriculture. Unemployment dea level of about 1.7 million, or 2.7 percent of the civilian labor force. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 70 UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE 0 1939 1944 1948 1949 1950 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. Period 1939 monthly average 1944 monthly average _ _ _ 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June _ -_ 1951 monthly average 1950: November December 1951* January February March April May June _ July August September October November December I960 _ - _ -. . _ _ _ _ - -, Civilian labor force UnemEmployment 1 Total ployAgricul- NonagriTotal ment cultural tural Thousands of persons, 14 years of age and over 55, 230 9,480 36, 140 9, 610 45, 750 54, 630 670 45, 010 8, 950 53, 960 60, 168 2, 142 49, 761 58, 027 8,266 61,442 2, 064 51, 405 59, 378 7, 973 62, 105 50, 684 58, 710 3,395 8,026 63, 099 3, 142 52, 450 7,507 59, 957 64, 866 52, 436 61, 482 3, 384 9, 046 62, 884 61,005 53, 951 1,879 7,054 61,271 63, 512 53, 721 2,240 7,551 60, 308 62, 538 2,229 6,234 54, 075 59, 010 61, 514 52, 993 2, 503 6, 018 52, 976 58, 905 61, 313 5, 930 2,407 60, 179 62, 325 53, 785 6, 393 2, 147 60, 044 61,789 1,744 53, 400 6,645 62, 803 61, 193 1, 609 53, 753 7, 440 61,803 63, 783 53, 768 1,980 8,035 62, 526 64, 382 1, 856 54, 618 7, 908 62, 630 64, 208 54, 942 7, 688 1, 578 61, 580 63, 186 54, 054 1, 606 7,526 61, 836 63, 452 54, 168 7, 668 1, 616 61, 336 63, 164 7, 022 ' 54, 314 1, 828 61, 014 62, 688 54, 636 1,674 6, 378 Unemployment as percent of total civilian labor force 17.2 1. 2 3.6 3.4 5. 5 5.0 5. 2 3.0 3. 5 3.6 4. 1 3.9 3. 4 2.8 2. 6 3. 1 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.5 2. 9 2.7 1 Includes part-time workers and those who had jobs but were not at work for such reasons as vacation, illness, bad weather, temporary lay-oS and industrial disputes. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. ^ NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT - SELECTED INDUSTRIES Manufacturing employment declined about 80,000 in November, but was still above a year ago. Employment in the durable goods sector increased slightly. There was a large seasonal increase in trade employees. MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS 9.5 8.5 DURABLE MANUFACTURING 0 f i l l I I NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING I I I I I ~1 0 ~ J I I F M A M J J A S O N D CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION F ' I M I A M J J A S 0 N 0 A J S 0 N D TRADE oC_J L SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers '] Manufacturing Period Total 1939 1943 1946 1948 1949 1950 monthly average _ _ _ monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average monthly average June 1950: October November December 1951: January February March -_ April _May__ June July August September 2 October 2 2 November 10, 078 17, 381 14, 461 15, 286 14, 146 14, 884 14, 666 15, 827 15, 765 15, 789 15, 784 15, 978 16, 022 15, 955 15, 853 15, 956 15, 813 16, 008 16, 020 15, 940 15, 861 Durable Nondugoods rable goods 4, 683 11 077 7 739 8 315 7 465 8 008 7 964 8 618 8 664 8 717 8 742 8 877 8 969 9 003 8 975 8 998 8 839 8 878 8 902 8 922 8 944 5, 394 6,304 6, 722 6,970 6, 681 6,876 6,702 7,209 7, 101 7,072 7,042 7, 101 7, 053 6, 952 6,878 6, 958 6, 974 7, 130 7, 118 7,018 6, 917 Contract construction 1, 150 1,567 1, 661 2, 165 2, 156 2.318 2, 414 2, 631 2,571 2,403 2, 281 2,228 2,326 2, 471 2,598 2, 686 2,754 2, 809 2,761 2,750 2, 637 Trade 6, 612 7, 189 8, 602 9, 491 9, 438 9, 524 9, 411 9, 752 9, 896 10, 443 9,592 9, 554 9,713 9,627 9,683 9, 732 9,667 9, 641 9, 774 9,871 10, 024 Finance and service Government (Federal, State, local) Transportation and public utilities 4,703 5,320 6,207 6,515 6, 545 6. 573 6, 653 6,578 6, 543 6,522 6,497 6,496 6,536 6, 610 6, 663 6, 728 6, 760 6,753 6, 728 6,670 6, 634 3,987 6, 049 5,607 5,613 5,811 5, 910 5, 832 6,039 6,037 6,376 6,088 6, 122 6,217 6,292 6,377 6,377 6, 356 6,401 6, 544 6, 532 6,497 2,912 3, 619 4,023 4, 151 3, 979 4, 010 4,023 4, 132 4, 123 4, 125 4,072 4, 082 4, 112 4, 132 4, 137 4, 161 4, 176 4, 190 4, 178 4, 167 4, 167 Mining 845 917 852 981 932 904 946 939 938 937 932 930 924 911 915 927 906 922 916 911 916 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 7) which include proprietors, selfemployed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. 2 Preliminary estimates. , .- ' ' Source: Department of Labor. 8 AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES Average weekly hours in manufacturing industries showed practically no change in November. A slight increase nondurable manufacturing was more than offset by a small decrease in the durable goods sector. NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING DURABLE MANUFACTURING 44 44 I 42 42 ^""^ V/ 40 1 HOU RS PER W E E K HOU S PER WEEK XA/VS^V ^\^""*^ 40 " ~ ^ ~ ~ 38 38 \\J^-v ^ V 36 36 ~ •^^ '-— 0 0 1948 1950 1949 J 1 1 1 1948 1951 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! I I 1 1 1 I ! i 1949 • • " , , , , , I , , , 771 1950 195 RETAIL TRADE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION 42 42 40 40 38 36 /^\/ V v^~VNy-x ^ i 11 i i 1i i i i i 1946 SOURCE : D E P A R T M E N T 1949 38 34 V 0 S\ 36 N/ 34 ^/A^/v^-^"V/v 1950 1 1 1 1 I M i l l n "r, , , , i : : r 1948 1951 ~ ' 1949 r I ' M , 77 1950 1951 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S OF LA00R. [Hours per week, selected industries' Manufacturing • Period Total 1939 1943 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 monthly average monthly average monthly average _ monthly average monthly average _ _ _ monthly average monthly average __ June October November _ December __ 1951" January February March_ _ _ __ April _ __ May. .. June July . _ ... August . 4 September 4 October 4 . _ . _. November i For production and related workers. »Not availabe. 37 ^ 44 9 40 4 40 4 40 1 39 2 40 5 40 5 41 3 41 1 41 4 41 0 40 9 41. 1 41 0 40 7 40 7 40 2 40 3 40 6 40 4 40 3 3 Durable goods Nondurable goods 38 0 46 6 40 2 40 6 40 5 39 5 41 2 41 3 42 1 41 8 42 2 41 5 41 6 41. 9 42 0 41 8 41 8 40 9 41 3 41 5 41 6 41 3 Not strictly comparable with previous data. 37 42 40 40 39 38 39 39 40 40 40 40 40 40 39 39 39 39 39 39 38 39 4 5 5 1 6 8 7 5 3 3 5 2 0 0 7 3 4 3 1 3 9 1 Building construction Retail trade 32 6 ' 38 4 38. 1 37 6 2 ( ) 37. 3 36 7 36. 3 37 0 37 4 37 3 36. 7 36 7 35 3 35. 8 36 8 37 5 37 7 38. 1 38. 2 38 2 38 6 (2) (3) (3) (3) 40. 3 40. 3 40. 4 40. 5 40. 9 40. 3 40. 0 40. 7 40. 3 40. 1 39.7 39. 9 39. 8 40. 4 40. 8 40.8 40. 1 39. 8 (2) * Preliminary estimates. Source: Department 9 AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES Average hourly earnings in durable manufacturing industries remained at about the same level in November while there was a rise of 1 cent in the nondurables group. DOLLARS PER HOUR DOLLARS PER HOUR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Production and related workers in selected industries] All manufacturing Durable goods manufacturing Nondurable goods manufacturing Building construction Retail trade Period 1950 Current 1950 Current 1950 1950 Current 1950 Current Current dollars dollars ' dollars dollars ' dollars dollars ' dollars dollars ' dollars dollars * 1939 monthly average 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average _ 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average . June October November December 1951: January.. February March April May. June __ __ July August September 4 October 4 _ _ _ _ . November 4 $0. 633 . 961 1.086 1. 237 1.350 1. 401 1. 465 1. 453 1. 501 1. 514 1. 543 1. 555 1. 561 1. 571 1. 578 1. 586 1. 599 1. 598 1. 596 1. 612 1. 614 1. 619 $1. 095 1. 335 1.337 1. 333 1. 350 1.415 1.465 1. 468 1. 469 1.476 1. 484 1.473 1. 460 1. 464 1. 469 1. 470 1. 485 1. 481 1. 479 1. 484 1. 481 1. 476 $0. 698 .059 . 156 .292 .410 . 469 . 537 1. 522 1.577 1.587 1.619 1. 630 1. 639 1. 654 1. 659 1. 665 1. 681 1. 682 1. 684 1. 703 1. 703 1. 705 * Current dollars divirlpd by fonsn.Ttprc' n rj n e index QQ base 1350 = 100. 2 3 4 Not strictly comparable with previous data. Not available. Preliminary estimates. Source: Department of Labor. : - • - • • 10 $1. 208 1.471 1. 424 1. 392 1. 410 1.484 1. 537 1. 537 1.543 1.547 1.557 1. 544 1.533 1. 541 1. 545 1.543 1. 561 1.559 1.-561 1. 568 1. 562 1. 554 $0. 582 . 803 1.015 1. 171 1.278 1.325 1.378 1.365 1.404 1.419 1. 443 1. 456 1. 458 1. 460 1. 465 1.474 1. 484 1. 488 1.481 1. 490 1. 491 1. 501 $1. 007 1. 115 1. 250 1. 262 1. 278 1.338 1.378 1. 379 1. 374 1.383 1. 338 1.379 1. 364 1.361 1.364 1. 366 1.378 1. 379 1.373 1. 372 1. 368 1. 368 SO. 932 1. 252 1.478 1. 681 3 1. 848 1. 935 2. 031 1.995 2.082 2. 093 2. 120 2. 135 2. 157 2. 163 2. 167 2. 182 2. 194 2. 195 2.207 2. 233 2.235 (2) $1. 612 1. 739 1. 820 1. 811 2 1. 848 1.955 2. 033 2.015 2.037 2.040 2.038 2.022 2. 018 2.016 2.018 2. 022 2.037 2. 034 2. 045 2.056 2.050 (2) s (3) (3) () $1. 009 1.088 1. 137 1. 176 1. 175 1. 199 1. 198 1. 187 1.237 1. 236 1.233 1.249 1.252 1. 256 1. 262 1.259 1.269 1. 266 (2) (3) (3) (3) $1. 087 1.088 1. 148 1. 176 1. 187 1. 173 1. 168 1. 141 1. 171 1. 156 1. 149 1. 163 1. 160 1. 166 1. 170 1. 167 1. 169 1. 150 (2) AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES Average weekly earnings in durable manufacturing industries declined somewhat in November. were more than offset by increases in the nondurables segment. .DOLLARS PER WEEK DOLLARS PER WEEK • r . . . . ! . . . . . ! . . . . . ! . . . . . ! . . . . , 1 . . . . . I . . . . . i . . i rn 1946 These decreases 1949 1950 I 1 1 1 1 ! 1 I i IJ I | Lj I..1..L.I I I 1 i 1 I 1 1 I ! I I I 1 t I,1LJt 1 1 Ll I 1 Ll~l 1951 * CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY CONSUMERS* PRICE INDEX ON BASE 1950*100. SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS fProduction and related workers in selected industries] AH manufacturing Durable goods manufacturing Nondurable goods manufacturing Building construction Retail trade Period 1950 Current 1950 Current 1950 Current 1950 Current 1950 Current dollars dollars ' dollars dollars ' dollars dollars ' dollars dollars ' dollars dollars ' 1939 1943 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 monthly average $23. 86 monthly average 43. 14 43.82 monthly average. _ monthly average 49. 97 54. 14 monthly average. -54. 92 monthly average 59.33 monthly average June _ _ 58. 85 October 61. 99 November 62.23 December 63.88 63. 76 1951: January February 63. 84 64. 57 March 64.70 April 64. 55 May 65. 08 June July . ..- . _. 64. 24 August- 4_ _ __ 64. 32 September 65.45 4 65. 21 October 4- _ November 65.25 $41. 28 59.92 53.97 53.85 54. 14 55.47 59. 33 59. 44 60. 66 60. 65 61.42 60. 38 59. 72 60. 18 60. 24 59. 82 60. 43 59. 54 59. 61 60.27 59. 83 59. 48 $26. 50 49. 30 46. 49 52. 46 57. 11 58. 03 63. 32 62. 86 66. 39 66. 34 68.32 67. 65 68. 18 69. 30 69. 68 69. 60 70.27 68. 79 69. 55 70.67 70. 84 70. 42 i Current dollars divided hy. ronsjimers' "rice index on base 1950= 100. Not strictly comparable with pre«o'us data. ~• Not available. * Preliminary estimates. $45. 85 $21. 78 $37. 68 47. 39 34. 12 68.47 41. 14 50. 67 57.25 50. 60 56. 53 46. 96 50.61 57. 11 50. 61 58.62 51. 41 51. 93 54. 71 63.32 54.71 54. 46 63. 49 53. 92 55. 36 64. 96 56. 58 55.74 64. 66 57. 19 56. 19 58. 44 65. 69 55. 43 64. 06 58.53 54. 56 58. 32 63. 78 54. 43 58.40 64.59 54. 15 58. 16 64. 88 53.69 64. 50 57. 93 54. 29 65. 25 58. 47 58. 48 . 54. 20 63. 75 53. 67 57. 91 64. 46 53. 92 65.07 * 58. 56 53. 21 58. 00 64. 99 53. 50 58. 69 64. 1.9 $30. 39 48. 13 56. 24 63. 30 2 68. 85 70.95 73. 73 73. 82 77. 87 78.07 77. 80 78.35 76. 14 77.44 79.75 81. 83 82. 71 83. 63 84. 31 85. 30 86. 27 (2) $52. 58 66. 85 69. 26 68.21 2 68. 85 71.67 73.73 74.57 76. 19 76. 09 74.81 74. 20 71.23 72,17 74. 26 75. 84 76. 80 77.51 78. 14 78. 55 79.' 15 (2) (3) (3) (s) $40. 66 43.85 45. 93 47.63 48. 06 48. 32 47.92 48. 31 49.85 49. 56 48.95 49.84 49.83 50. 74 51. 49 51.37 50. 89 50. 39 (3) (3) (s3) () $43. 81 43. 85 46.39 47. 63 48. 55 47. 28 46.71 46. 45 47. 21 46. 36 45. 62 46. 41 46. 18 47. 11 47.72 47. 61 46. 86 46.23 (2) 3 a Source: Department of Labor. 11 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION In December, total industrial production remained at the November level, according to preliminary data. The manufacture of durable goods continued to rise slowly/ output of nondurables and minerals dropped. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE 400 PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE 400 ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION DURABLE MANUFACTURES 1 1940 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 1 1 ) 1 1 J F M A M ' J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J ' F M A M J J A S O N D COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. [1935-39—100, seasonally adjusted] Total industrial production Period 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average June 1951 monthly average ' 1950: November December . 1951: January February... March _ . April _ May June Julv__ . August __. September October November 1 December * > Preliminary estimates. 12 BManufacture s Total Durable goods Nonduraable goods Minerals 239 170 187 192 176 200 199 .. _ _ 258 177 194 198 183 209 208 360 192 220 225 202 237 237 176 165 172 177 168 187 184 132 134 149 155 135 148 151 219 215 229 224 273 260 194 195 165 160 218 221 221 222 223 222 221 212 217 219 218 218 218 229 231 232 234 234 233 231 222 226 228 226 227 227 268 268 271 277 279 276 274 265 267 272 274 275 276 197 201 201 199 198 198 197 187 193 163 188 188 187 157 164 158 158 164 165 165 156 165 167 174 171 168 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORS Steel production rose to an all-time high in fhe week ended December 22. Bituminous coal output reached a pea! for the year in the week ended December 1, and then declined. Motor vehicle assemblies in December averaged below the low rate of output of November. MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS (DAILY AVERAGE) MILLIONS OF TONS 3 3 SOURCE: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE. DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR. EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, AND WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS. Steel1 Percent of Thousands of theoretical net tons capacity Period Weekly average: 1949 1950 - - - - ._ June 1951 3 1950: December _ _ 1951: January February March April May — June July. . August _. _ _ September October __ _. November 3 December - Week ended: 1951: December 1 8 15 22 29 1952: January 5 12 _-- COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Electric power, by utilities (millions of kilowatt-hours) Bituminous coal (thousands of short tons) J Cars and trucks (number) 1,496 1,857 1,898 2,016 1, 890 1, 996 1, 941 2,048 2,061 2,053 2,018 1,964 1,971 2,022 2, 058 2, 050 2,010 81.0 96.9 99.6 100. 9 98.0 99.9 97. 1 102.4 103. 1 102.7 100. 9 98.2 98. 6 101.2 102. 9 102.5 100.5 5,500 6,183 6,038 6,958 6,852 6, 866 6,948 6, 827 6,722 6, 557 6,804 6,699 7, 092 7,012 7, 175 7,336 7,464 1,427 1,687 1, 762 1, 777 1, 918 1, 980 1, 685 1,662 1,734 1, 638 1,726 1,706 1, 747 1,779 1,909 1, 977 1, 753 120, 350 153, 546 192, 825 129, 308 149, 932 134, 242 151, 071 170, 253 152, 948 140, 461 147, 582 112, 166 119, 302 115, 721 112, 441 105, 037 90, 476 2, 079 2, 071 2,081 2,098 2, 020 2,039 2,041 104. 0 103. 6 104. 1 104. 9 101.5 102. 0 102. 1 7,476 7, 444 7,667 7, 824 6,922 7, 149 2, 024 1,874 1, 912 1, 783 1,571 1,825 112, 825 112, 465 111,410 102, 837 35, 193 48, 545 87, 318 ' Weekly data are scheduled rates of operation; monthly figures are for actual output except latest month which is an average of the weekly estimates. Percent of capacity based on weekly net ton capacity of 1,749,928 for 1947,1,802,476 for 1948, 1,843,516 for 1949, 1,906,268 for the first half of 1950,1,928,721 beginning July a 3 1,1950, and 1,999,034 beginning January 1,1951. Daily average for week. Preliminary estimates. Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Automotive Eeports. TO 3 93330—52 Output of lumber and nonferrous metals rose in November, although they did not regain their 1951 highs. Machinery production again surpassed previous postwar levels. Among the nondurable industries, chemicals and foods continued to decline, but petroleum and coal products rose to an all-Hme high, while textiles increased slightly for the first time since August. PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE (ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION) 300 PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE (ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION) 300 IX MACHINERY V V MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS J^bv_^ NONFERROUS METALS V / AND PRODUCTS \ / I 1940 42 I 44 I I 46 I I L 48 1 1 I! LU I I I I I I I I 1 50 1949 I960 1940 42 1951 44 46 48 M 1 1 ! 1 M ! M 1i 1 1 M I 1 M 1 50 C O U N C I L OF ECONOMIC AQVISES SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. [1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted] Nondurable manufactures Durable manufactures Period 1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average 1948 monthly average --1949 monthly average _ _ 1950 monthly average June October November December _ 1951* January February -- March April May June July August September October November : __ __ -_ ' Preliminary estimates. 14 Iron and steel 208 150 195 208 188 229 231 253 246 253 255 252 263 264 263 261 253 254 258 261 260 Lumber and products 129 131 143 145 130 159 155 166 169 173 171 169 169 170 163 153 141 146 146 149 155 Nonferrous Textiles and Machinery metals and products products 443 240 276 277 234 270 262 303 311 321 322 328 335 337 336 338 327 328 336 341 343 267 157 187 193 160 207 207 223 226 227 224 217 209 211 206 205 199 197 199 202 208 153 162 163 170 147 182 173 197 193 194 194 194 188 185 190 185 160 170 164 155 156 Petroleum Manufacand coal tured food products products 185 173 193 218 209 229 222 251 253 263 272 269 269 255 263 263 262 265 265 268 277 145 149 157 159 163 164 164 162 161 165 168 166 167 168 167 165 164165 166 163 161 Chemical products 384 236 251 254 241 263 261 277 280 284 287 288 292 296 298 302 305 306 303 299 297 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. NEW CONSTRUCTION The value of total new construction (seasonally adjusted) rose slightly in December, with a $40 million increase in public construction more than offsetting the decline in private construction. Private nonfarm residential construction fell, reversing the trend of recent months. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3.0OO 3,000 ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION 2,500 2,000 2,000 PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL \ (NONFARM] 1,000 OTHER PRIVATE X FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL _! L. I I J I L J I I 1952 SOURCES D E P A R T M E N T OF C O M M E R C E AND D E P A R T M E N T OF LABOR. [Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Total new construction Period 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average _ 1950 monthly average June _ 1951 monthly average 2 1950: November December 1951: January February. March April May__ _ June July August September October _ November,, _ December 2 _ _ 1 2 Includes public residential construction. Preliminary estimates. _ _ ._ 683 1,173 438 1,000 1,798 1,883 2, 325 2,316 2.489 2, 498 2,439 2, 506 2, 544 2,667 2,627 2,532 2,483 2, 443 2,423 2,428 2, 392 2, 406 2,412 Total private Private construction Residential Other (nonfarm) 366 285 182 803 1,389 1, 350 1,732 1, 737 1,735 1,833 1,807 1,832 1,886 1, 908 1, 845 1,763 1,717 1,708 1, 677 1,671 1, 634 1, 608 1, 574 223 143 68 335 715 691 1,050 1,072 910 1,078 1,055 1,059 1,083 1,072 991 888 849 836 808 815 837 849 828 142 142 114 469 674 659 682 665 826 755 752 773 803 836 854 875 868 872 869 856 797 759 746 Federal, State, and local ' 317 888 256 197 409 532 593 579 753 665 632 674 658 759 782 769 766 735 746 757 758 798 838 Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor. 15 NEW HOUSING STARTS New housing starts continued to decline in December, dropping to 62,000. about 22 percent less than in 1950 and 6 percent more than in 1949. Total for the year was 1,090,000, k^^i^a THOUSANDS OF UNITS THOUSANDS OF UNITS 200 200 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. New nonfarm units started Month 1948 1949 January February _ _ March April May June July August September October _ _ November December _ 39, 300 42, 800 56, 000 67, 100 72, 900 77, 200 81, 100 86, 300 93, 800 94, 000 79, 700 58, 800 53, 500 50, 100 76, 400 99, 500 100, 300 97, 800 95, 000 86, 700 82, 300 73, 400 63, 700 52, 900 50, 000 50, 400 69, 400 88, 300 95, 400 95, 500 96, 100 99, 000 102, 900 104, 300 95, 500 78, 300 Total __ _ _ ._ . . Monthly average . 78, 700 82, 900 117, 300 133, 400 149, 100 144, 300 144, 400 141, 900 120, 600 102. 500 87, 300 93, 600 849, 000 931, 600 1, 025, 100 1, 396, 000 _ _ _ 70, 750 77, 600 85, 425 * Preliminary estimates. December data became available after the chart was prepared. 16 1951 1950 1947 116, 300 85, 900 80, 600 93, 800 96, 200 101, 000 132, 500 90, 500 96, 400 1 91, 000 1 86, 000 1 76, 000 1 62, 000 1 1, 090, 000 1 90, 800 Source: Department of Labor. EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Nonfarm plant and equipment expenditures in the fourth quarter of 1951 were 18 percent higher than they had been a year previous. On the basis of reported business plans, about the same ratio would hold in the first quarter of 1952 also. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal variation] Total » Period 1939 1941-. 1945 1948 . 1949.-. 1950 3 1951 __ 1950: First quarter Second Quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1951 ' Firat quarter Second quarter Third quarter 3 Fourth quarter 1952: First quarter 3 _ _ - _ ._ -_ - . _ -- 5, 213 8, 190 7, 406 20, 032 18, 021 17, 832 23, 125 14, 476 16, 732 18, 048 22, 068 19,452 23, 652 23, 376 26, 024 22, 916 Manufacturing 1, 943 3, 400 3,983 9, 134 7, 149 7, 491 11, 141 5,776 6, 856 7,436 9, 896 8, 616 11,208 11, 364 1.3, 380 12, 040 Mining Transportation Railroad 380 680 443 802 738 684 806 584 640 720 792 732 812 796 884 832 280 560 552 1,319 1,350 1, 136 1, 564 928 1, 192 1, 140 1,280 1, 212 1, 648 1,508 1,888 1, 596 Other 280 340 321 700 525 437 517 316 360 492 580 500 544 480 544 552 Electric and Commercial gas utilities and miscellaneous a 480 710 630 2, 683 3, 140 3, 167 3, 654 2,612 3, 032 3, 284 3,740 3, 012 3, 572 3,732 4, 300 3, 536 1,850 2,490 1,477 5, 394 5, 119 4, 917 5,443 4,260 4, 652 4, 976 5,780 5,380 5,868 5, 496 5, 028 4, 360 * Excludes agriculture. 1 Commercial and miscellaneous composed of trade, service, finance, and communication. 3 Estimates for fourth quarter 1950 and first quarter 1951 based on anticipated capital expenditures of business as reported in a survey made in late October a nd during November. NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other data. Revised data for 1945 and subsequent years bccan e available after chart was prepared. . . . . . . . Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted). 17 NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES In the third quarter of 1951, total net proceeds from new security issues declined seasonally. The total, however, was almost 25 percent above the corresponding period of a year ago. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3.0 3.0 1939 1943 1948 1949 I960 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS. [Millions of dollars] Proposed uses of net proceeds Estimated net proceeds Period New money Total 1939 quarterly average- 1943 quarterly average 1946 quarterly average _ 1947 quarterly average 1948 quarterly average 1949 quarterly average- -_ 1950 quarterly average 1949- Third quarter Fourth quarter 11950' First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1951' First quarter Second quarter. Third quarter 2 1 - - -- _- _ _ - __ _ ._ Includes small amount for other purposes. ' Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because ot rounding. Source: Securities and Exchange Commission. 529 287 1,689 1, 617 1,740 1,490 1,565 1,009 1,299 1,325 2,222 1, 145 1, 569 1,730 2,361 1, 413 81 77 820 1, 148 1,482 1,152 1,002 789 862 941 1, 251 771 1,044 1,461 1,987 1,260 Plant and equipment 43 35 529 852 1,055 931 741 669 596 759 948 571 687 1,167 1, 422 970 Working capital 39 42 291 296 427 220 260 120 265 182 302 200 356 293 565 290 Retirement of debt and stock > 448 210 869 469 258 338 564 219 438 384 971 374 525 270 374 153 INVENTORIES AND SALES In November, the increase in manufacturers' inventories slowed further while trade inventories fell slightly. facturers' sales in October and November were at the highest level since the spring of 1951. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS Of DOLLARS RETAIL TOTAL AND MANUFACTURING MONTHLY AVERAGE Manu- SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONTHLY AVERAGE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INVENTORIES .-- ,.•*•••' SALE /\ / TOTAL INVENTORIES TOTAL SALES* 1940 ./ 42 44 46 48 5O PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE MANUFACTURING INVENTORIES MANUFACTURING SALES ....1.J. L_LL1J LLJ lm'!J-1i-L-UiliLiI i.l i ' ' | -- | -l' ! l i t I i t i II1940 42 44 46 4B 50 •x- 1950 1951 1952 1940 42 44 46 48 50 1951 1952 WHOLESALE, MANUFACTURING, AND RETAIL.- SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE Period Total business l InvenSales 3 tories 2 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Retail Inventories 2 Manufacturing Sales 3 Inventories a Sales » Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 20, 051 31, 343 _ 30, 893 42, 942 --- -- 50, 605 55, 647 " 50, 921 60, 434 52, 828 June October 57, 112 November 58, 954 December 60, 434 1951: January 62, 050 63, 416 February March 65, 240 67, 361 April Mav 68, 981 69, 442 Ju lie July 70, 268 70, 083 August September 7 69, 922 October 7 7 70, 008 November 69, 880 1939 1943 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 10, 802 21, 920 23, 852 27, 151 33, 156 36, 438 34, 467 39, 051 39, 239 41, 208 40, 612 42, 254 45, 933 44, 826 44, 242 43, 470 44, 748 43, 072 41, 729 43, 048 41, 348 44, 319 44, 044 5, 534 7, 561 7, 949 11, 852 14, 060 15, 828 14, 502 17, 793 15, 574 17, 390 17. 704 17, 793 18, 455 19, 044 19, 743 20, 346 20, 643 20, 282 20, 045 19, 429 18, 761 18, 545 18, 408 1 Also includes wholesale, not shown separately in this table. * Book value, end of period. Revised trade data nofavaflable prior to 1948. 3 Monthly average for year and total for month. * Data for new orders not adjusted for seasonal variation. 3, 504 5,270 6, 503 8,541 9, 9G7 10, 877 10, 893 11, 974 12, 069 12, 043 11. 768 12,611 13. 612 13, 343 12, 653 12, 307 12, 431 12, 260 12, 077 12, 448 12, 276 12, 566 12, 469 5, 112 12, 820 12, 873 12, 617 15, 918 17, 630 16, 339 19, 064 19, 271 20, 684 20, 524 21, 048 22, 560 22, 261 22, 605 22, 479 23, 434 22, 133 21, 268 21, 776 20, 706 22, 592 22, 592 1 8 Index of book value, end Not available. 7 InvenNew Sales 8 tories ' orders (millions of Index 1935-39=100, dollars) * seasonally adjusted 106 102 (6) 168 155 (6) 207 166 (6) 264 213 13, 694 286 255 15, 622 302 291 17, 337 286 270 15, 791 304 295 20, 643 298 276 20, 698 291 329 23, 744 290 332 21, 367 325 329 22, 792 362 338 27, 940 326 349 25, 554 291 368 28, 220 302 377 23,517 301 365 22, 830 302 353 22, 361 309 353 20, 790 342 319 22, 809 312 335 21, 283 303 24, 000 (6) 23, 000 (8) (6) of period. .-...., Preliminary estimates': Source: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Beserve System. 11,465 20, 098 18, 390 24, 498 28, 920 31, 734 28, 690 33, 253 29, 123 30, 947 32, 245 33, 253 34, 120 34, 657 35, 557 36, 908 38, 068 39, 009 39, 908 40, 580 41, 089 41, 354 41, 462 Department stores 19 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS Exports, after declining from September to October, increased by 18 percent in November. Imports declined slightly. Merchandise exports and the export surplus in November were the highest reached in 1951. MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,600 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,600 1,200 1,200 * RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, AND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AREAS. ** RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF. COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT. OF THE NAVY. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Period Exports ' 1, 065 1 Eecorded 1 - „__ - — 207 282 411 480 594 552 738 687 922 855 867 974 1936-38 monthly average 1943 monthly average - -1946 monthly average 1947 monthly average -1948 monthly average . .-- 1949 monthly average -1950 monthly average - _ June October November __December __-__ 1951: January.- - -February ~ March - April May. Julv August September October ._ 1,023 247 1, 080 812 1, 278 1,054 1, 003 856 877 906 977 - - _ - 1, 076 1, 285 1, 372 1, 354 1, 292 1, 189 1, 267 1, 232 1. 154 merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas. Recorded general merchandise imports. NOTE: Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Department of Commerce! Department of the Army, and Department of tfa.8 Nary, 20 Imports 2 909 1, 100 1/033 1,018 929 894 881 718 832 Excess of exports ( + ), imports (— ) + 40 + 798 + 400 + 799 + 461 + 451 + 119 + 190 — 16 + 122 + 198 -49 + 167 + 186 + 339 + 336 + 362 + 295 + 386 + 514 + 32? PURCHASING POWER NATIONAL INCOME AH principal components of national income shared in the $4 billion rise between the third and fourth quarters of 1951. BILLIONS OF DOLL BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1939 1944 . 1948 1949 1950 1951 J/ PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED) COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Total national income Period 1939 1944 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 i - - - --_ - -- 72. 5 183. 8 180. 3 198. 7 223. 5 216. 7 239. 0 276.0 Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Compensation of employees Proprietors' (business, professional, farm) and rental income Net interest 47. 8 121. 2 117. 1 128.0 140. 2 139. 9 153. 3 178. 1 14.7 35.5 42. 0 42. 4 47.3 41. 4 44. 0 49. 0 4.2 3. 1 2.9 3.5 4.3 4. 9 5.4 5.7 Total 5.8 24. 0 18. 3 24. 7 31. 7 30.5 36. 2 43. 1 Profits before taxes Inventory valuation adjustment 6.5 24. 3 23. 5 30.5 33.8 28. 3 41. 4 44. 8 —0.7 -.3 -5.2 -5.8 -2. 1 + 2.1 -5. 1 -1.7 31. 9 37.5 45.7 50.3 51. 8 45. 4 '40. 0 42. 0 -1.4 -2.7 -8.3 -8.2 -8. 9 -2.3 + 2.8 + 1.7 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1950" First quarter Second quarter Third quarter _ _ Fourth quarter 1951" First quarter Second quarter Third quarter 1 Fourth quarter 219.3 230.6 245. 8 260. 1 269.4 274. 3 »278. 1 282.0 142. 2 148. 6 157. 3 165.2 172. 1 177.4 180.4 182. 5 ' Estimates based on incomplete data: by Council of Economic Advisers. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. 41. 4 41. 9 45.6 47. 2 48. 8 48. 1 49. 1 50. 0 5.2 5.3 5-5 5.6 5.6 5.7 5. 8 5.8 30. 5 34.8 37.4 42. 2 42. 9 43. 0 1 42. 8 43. 7 Source: Department of Commerce (except us noted). 21 CORPORATE PROFITS Although corporate profits before taxes reached an all-time high in 1951, they were much lower in the second half of the year than in the first half. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 60 [Billions of dollars] Period 1939 .. 1944 .. 1946 1947 1948 1949. 1950-. 1951 1 -. . Corporate profits before taxes 6.5 24. 3 23. 5 30.5 33.8 28. 3 41. 4 44. 8 Corporate tax liability 1. 5 IS. 5 9. 6 11.9 13. 0 11.0 18. 6 26. 7 Corporate profits after taxes Total 5. 0 10.8 13. 9 18. 5 20. 7 17.3 22. 8 18. 1 Dividend payments 3.8 4.7 5.8 6. 6 7.2 7.6 9. 2 9.5 Undistributed profits 1.2 6. 1 8. 1 12. 0 13.5 9.8 13. 6 8.6 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1950: First quarter Second quarter . _ Third quarter Fourth quarter 1951: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter ' Fourth quarter * 22 31.9 37. 5 45. 7 50.3 51. 8 45. 4 40.0 42. 0 14.4 16. 9 20. 5 22.5 31. 1 27.0 23.8 25. 0 17.5 20.6 25. 2 27.8 20.7 18.4 16. 2 17.0 7.8 8.4 9.4 11. 1 8.8 9.6 9. 6 10. 1 9.7 12.2 15.8 16.7 11.9 8.8 6. 6 6.9 1 Estimates based on incomplete data; by Council of Economic Advisers. NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment. See p. 21 for profits before taxes and inventory valuation adjustment. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). PERSONAL INCOME Personal income declined somewhat in November. Wages and salaries continued to rise, particularly in the Government sector, but farm income dropped over $1 billion (annual rate) as a result of a lower physical volume of marketings. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 300 300 1949 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. Total personal income Period 1939 1944 1947 1948 1949 1950 - . __ _ _ _ _ _ __ - _- _ - - __ 1950' June October November December 1951: January February. _ __ _ March April May June July_ COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS :: August September October. 2 November 72.6 165. 9 191.0 209.5 205. 1 224.7 219.0 234. 1 236. 4 244. 4 243.6 243. 3 245. 5 249.0 249. 8 251.0 252. 4 253.7 253. 6 257. 5 256. 7 [Billions of dollars] Proprietors' income Labor income (salaries, Dividends Business, wages, and professional, and personal Farm other labor interest and rental income) income 4.5 45.7 10.2 9. 2 23. 7 11. 8 116. 2 10.6 15.6 122.3 26.8 14.5 134.9 17.7 29.6 16.0 134.2 13.0 28. 4 17. 1 146. 4 13.7 30.3 19. 3 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted .12.3 144. 6 30. 2 18. 4 156. 0 15. 1 31.2 19.7 157.9 16. 0 31. 2 19. 5 16. 3 31. 8 159. 6 25.0 33.0 161. 7 17.5 18.8 32. 3 15. 9 19.2 163. 8 166. 0 31.9 15. 8 19. 7 16.4 31.7 168. 6 20. 2 168. 9 16. 2 31. 8 20.2 16. 2 170.2 31. 8 20. 0 17. 3 170. 9 31. 9 19.7 17. 6 171. 2 20. 1 32. 1 31. 5 16.8 172. 1 20. 7 18. 2 32.3 173. 3 20.8 32. 1 174. 3 17. 0 20. 7 Transfer payments 3.0 3.6 11.8 11.3 12.4 1 15. 1 13. 5 12. 1 11.8 11.7 12.6 12. 1 12. 1 12. 1 12.7 12. 8 12. 6 12. 7 12. 5 12.9 12. 6 i Includes $2.7 billion National Service Life Insurance dividend, most of which was paid In the first half of the year. 3 Preliminary estimates. Data became available after chart was prepared. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. 23 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Consumption expenditures rose by $2.5 billion between the third and fourth quarters of last year, with the gains being almost entirely in nondurable goods and services. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 250 / PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED). "COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS. [Billions of dollars] Personal consumption expenditures Period Nondurable goods Total 1939 1944 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 » 67. 5 111.6 146. 9 165. 6 177.9 180. 2 193. 6 204. 4 35.3 67. 1 85.8 95. 1 100. 9 98.7 102. 3 110. 6 Durable goods 6.7 7. 1 16.6 21. 4 22. 9 23.9 29. 2 27. 1 Services 25.5 37.4 44. 5 49. 1 54. 1 57. 6 62. 1 66. 7 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1950: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1951: First quarter _ Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter __ __ 1 1 Estimates based on incomplete data; by Council of Economic Advisers. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). 24 184. 7 188. 7 202. 5 198.4 208.2 201. 7 202. 5 205. 0 98.4 100.4 105. 5 104. 9 111. 5 109.5 110. 0 111. 5 26.3 26.6 34. 3 29.4 31.5 25.9 25.3 25. 5 60. 1 61.6 62.7 64. 0 65.2 66.2 67.2 68.0 CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING Saving confirmed at the exceptionally high rate of about 10 percent of disposable income in the fourth quarter of 1951. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 1949 -I/ PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES. & PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [EXCEPT AS NOTED) COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Disposable personal income * Period 1939 1941 1942 1944 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 70.2 92.0 116.7 147.0 158. 9 169. 5 188. 4 186.4 204.3 222. 8 2 _ . 1950 : First quarter.. Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter . -~ _ 1951 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter 2 Fourth auarter _ __ _ .„_ - _ _ _ __ 197.3 197.5 207. 1 215.2 216. 8 221. 8 224. 7 228. 0 Less: Personal consumption expenditures Equals: Personal net saving Billions of dollars 67. 5 2.7 82.3 9.8 91.2 25. 6 35.4 111.6 • 12. 0 146.9 165.6 3.9 177.9 10.5 180. 2 6.3 193.6 10.7 204, 4 18. 5 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 184.7 188. 7 202.5 198.4 208. 2 201. 7 202.5 205. 0 12.5 8.9 4.6 16.8 8.5 20.1 22. 2 23. 0 Net saving as percent of disposable income 3.8 10.7 21. 9 24. 1 7.6 2.3 5.6 3.4 5.2 8.3 6. 3 4.5 2.2 7.8 3.9 9.1 9.9 10. 1 ' Income less taxes. 2 Estimates based on incomplete data; by Council of Economic Advisers. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals becausejof rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). 25 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE INCOME Per capita disposable income in constant prices was unchanged from the third to the fourth quarter of 1951. DOLLARS DOLLARS 1,600 1,600 ANNUAL AVERAGES ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1,200 1,200 CURRENT DOLLARS 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1943 1949 I95O 1951 1949 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED). Total disposable personal Per capita disposable perincome (billions of dollars) ' sonal income (dollars)1 Period Current prices 1939 1941 . . . . . . . . 1942 1944 . 1946. _ ' - _ 1947 - ... 1948 -- 1949_ .. - - - - - 1950 4 1951 - _ _ - _ - - ... 70.2 92. 0 116. 7 147.0 158. 9 169.5 188.4 186. 4 204.3 222. 8 1950 prices 2 124. 9 152. 6 172. 6 190. 4 184.3 179. 2 189.0 189. 6 204. 3 208. 8 Current prices 536 690 866 1,062 1, 124 1,176 1,285 1,250 1,347 1,443 1950 prices a 954 1, 144 1,280 1,376 1, 303 1,243 1, 289 1,271 1, 347 1,353 Population (thousands)3 130, 133, 134, 138, 141, 144, 146, 149, 151, 154, 880 377 831 390 398 129 621 149 689 353 150, 151, 152, 152, 153, 154, 154, 155, 847 390 068 774 396 Oil 724 469 Annual rates, seasonally adjusted 1950: First quarter Second quarter. Third quarter Fourth quarter1951: First quarter Second quarter _ Third quarter- 4_. _ Fourth quarter _ __ _ . _ ._ 197. S 197.5 207. 1 215. 2 216. 8 221. 8 224.7 228.0 202. 4 200.5 204. 2 209. 7 203. 6 207. 9 211.2 212. 1 1,308 1,305 1, 362 1,409 1, 413 1, 440 1, 452 1, 467 1,342 1, 324 1, 343 1,373 1, 327 1, 350 1, 365 1,364 1 Income less taxes. 3 Dollar estimates in current prices divided by the price index of personal consumption expenditures. This price index was based on the Department of Commerce data, shifted from 1939 base. ' Provisional intercensal estimates of the population of the United States including Armed Forces overseas, taking into account the final 1950 Census total population count. Annual data as of July l; quarterly data centered in the middle of the period, interpolated from monthly figures. * Estimates based on incomplete data; by Council of Economic Advisers. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). 26 FARM INCOME Farm income in November dropped more than seasonally, primarily because of a lower volume of marketings of meat animals. Income in current prices was 9 percent above a year ago; in real terms, it was only 1K percent higher. LLIONS OFlDOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4 1950 DOLLARS ** CURRENT * DOLLARS NCLUOES CASH fARM INCOME FROM MARKETING AND GOVERNMENT PAYMENTS. FARM INCOME IN CURRENT D O L L A R S DIVIDED BY PRICES PASD BY F A R M E R S , SNTEREST, T A X E S , AND WAGE R A T E S , I 9 6 0 = 1 0 0 , COUNCIL SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF A G R I C U L T U R E , Period 1939 monthly average 1941 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average. June October ISTnvpmh^r - - December 1951: January February March April May June July • '.. August ._ September 4 October 4 November __. _ _ _ _ - - __ - - - , _ „ _ _ _ _ - . -___ ._ _ _ OF ECONOMIC ADv _ ,-RS Farm income Prices paid by Farm income farmers (incl. (millions of (millions of interest, taxes, current and wage rates) 1950 dollars) 3 2 dollars) * 1950= 100 724 1 508 48 981 52 1, 887 71 1 764 2 484 2 637 81 2 136 2, 542 2 567 101 2 407 2 359 98 2, 349 100 2 349 1 859 1, 859 100 3, 514 3 584 102 3, 182 3 277 103 2, 692 2, 588 104 2 539 107 2, 373 1,899 1,758 108 2 071 1, 883 110 1, 925 111 2 137 1, 940 2 153 111 2 169 111 1, 954 2,389 2 652 111 2, 695 2, 992 111 3 395 111 3, 059 3, 923 4 355 111 3. 585 3,230 111 1 Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments. 3 Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1950 = 100. ! Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, taxes, and wage rates,'1950=100, * Preliminary estimates. Source: Department.o^Agrieulture. 27 IJ tfa I- JLal I". 7 an ^j**7 •& « Jhmd o£fl g BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS Bank loans expanded $1.6 billion during November and December, and holdings of Government and other securities rose by an approximately equal amount. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 150 1939 1945 1948 1949 END OF YEAR BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 150 1950 J F M A M J J A S O N D I960 END OF MONTH COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] All commercial banks End of period 1939 19451947_ 1948 1949 1950 - -. June 1951 2 1950: November December 1951: January February March April. May June July,August September October 2 November 2 December _ Investments Total loans and investments Bank loans 40. 7 124. 0 116.3 114.3 120. 2 126.7 121. 8 133.8 125. 4 126. 7 125. 1 125. 0 125.7 125. 4 125. 1 126. 0 126. 1 127. 0 128. 6 130. 5 131. 9 133. 8 17. 2 26. 1 38. 1 42. 5 43.0 52. 2 44. 8 58. 4 51. 5 52.2 52.7 53. 5 54.4 54. 4 54. 5 54.8 54. 6 55. 2 56. 0 56. 8 57.3 58. 4 Total 23.4 97. 9 78.2 71.8 77.2 74.4 77. 0 75.4 73.9 74. 4 72.3 71.5 71.3 71.0 70. 6 71.2 71.5 71. 9 72. 6 73. 7 74.6 • 75.4 U.S. Government securities 16.3 90.6 69. 2 62.6 67.0 62. 0 65.8 62. 2 61.7 62.0 60. 0 59. 1 58.8 58. 5 58. 1 58. 5 58.7 59. 1 59. 7 60. 9 61. 6 62.2 Other securities 7. 1 7.3 9. 0 9.2 10.2 12.4 11. 2 13. 2 12. 1 12.4 12.4 12.4 12. 6 12. 6 12. 5 12.7 12.8 12.7 12.9 12. 9 13.0 13. 2 Weekly reporting member banks— Business loans * 4.4 7.3 14. 6 15.6 13.9 17. 8 13. 6 21.6 17. 1 17. 8 18. 1 18. 7 19. 2 19. 1 19. 0 19. 2 19.0 19. 5 20. 1 20. 6 20. 9 21.6 2 Estimates based on incomplete data; December by Council of Economic Advisers. i Commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans. Not!.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System (exceptlasjioted). 28 CONSUMER CREDIT Total consumer credit outstanding expanded around $800 million during November and December, to reach a level about $300 million above December 1950. The growth was largely accounted for by charge accounts, which rose seasonally. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D I960 END OF MONTH UQftHO or GOVERNORS Qf THE! F£OER&t_ [Millions of dollars] Total consumer credit outstanding End of period 1939 - 1943 1946 1948 — 1949 1950 _ June 1951 2 - . _. 1950: November December 1951: January February March April May iJ-COJ - JuneJuly. . August September October 2 _ 2. November December 2 - - . _ _. __ _ __' __ . - - ... . __ . 7,031 4,600 8,677 14, 366 16, 809 20; 097 17, 651 20, 400 19,405 20, 097 19, 937 19, 533 19, 379 19, 126 19, 207 19, 256 19, 132 19, 262 19, 362 19, 586 19, 996 20, 400 Instalment credit Total 4,424 2,001 4,000 8, 600 10, 890 13, 459 12, 105 13, 300 13, 306 13, 459 13, 252 13, 073 12, 976 12, 904 12, 920 12, 955 12. 903 13, 045 13, 167 13, 199 13, 259 13, 300 Automobile sale credit Other sale credit and loans 1,267 175 544 1, 961 3, 144 4, 126 3,790 4,000 4,175 4, 126 4.056 3; 990 3,946 3,934 3,980 4, 041 4,061 4, 138 4, 175 4, 134 4, 100 4,000 3, 157 1,826 3,456 6,639 7,746 9,333 8, 315 9,300 9, 131 9,333 9, 196 9,083 9, 030 8,970 8,940 8, 914 8. 842 M07 8, 992 9,065 9,059 9, 300 Charge accounts 1,544 1,498 3, 054 3,854 3, 909 4,239 3,392 4, 500 3, 739 • 4,239 4, 248 4,010 3,938 3, 744 3,793 3, 804 3,743 3, 724 3, 696 3, 868 4, 206 4, 500 Other consumer credit * 1,063 1,101 1,623 1, 912 2,010 2,399 2,154 2,600 2,360 2,399 2,437 2,450 2,465 2,478 2,494 2, 497 2,486 2,493 2, 499 2,519 2,531 2, 600 ' Includes loans by pawnbrokers, service credit, and single-payment loans under $3,000 made by commercial banks. The single-payment loan item was revised in November to exclude loans over SS.mn. See federal Reserve Bulletin for November 1950, pages 1465-6. 2 Estimates based on incomplete data; December by Council of Economic Advisers. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (except as noted). 29 BOND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES The yield on Treasury bills climbed substantially during December, while the rate on prime commercial paper rose moderately. Yields on both Government and corporate bonds showed slight increases. PERCENT PER A N N U M PERCENT PER ANNUM 3.5 3.5 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N O 1946 1947 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Percent per annum] U. S. Government security yields Taxable 3-month bonds, Treasurv 15 years bills ' " and over Period Average: 1939 .. 1945 .. . 1946 . . 1947 1948— ... 1949 1950 . June. - _ _ 1951 1950: November. . December 1951: January February__ _ March April _ _ _ __ . _ .. ._ _ __ May June July- • August September, October November December 1 1 30 Kal.n on mnv issuos within period, Homltt in this classification were first issued in March 1941. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 0. 023 .375 . 375 . 594 1.040 1. 102 1.218 1. 174 1. 552 1. 364 1.367 1. 387 1.391 1.422 1. 520 1. 578 1.499 1. 593 1. 644 1.646 1.608 1. 608 1.731 (2) Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) Prime commercial paper, 4-6 months 2. 37 2. 19 2.25 2. 44 2.31 2. 32 2.33 2.57 3. 01 2. 62 2. 53 2. 61 2. 82 2.66 2. 62 2. 62 2. 86 0. 59 .75 .81 1. 03 1. 44 I. 48 1. 45 1.31 2. 17 2.38 2.39 2.39 2.40 2. 47 2.56 2.63 2.65 2.63 2. 57 2.65 2.61 2. 66 2. 70 2. 67 2. 67 2.66 2. 66 2.78 2. 87 2. 88 2. 94 2.94 2. 88 2. 84 2.89 2. 96 3.01 1. 69 1. 72 1.86 1. 96 2.06 2. 13 2. 17 2.31 2. 31 2. 26 2. 19 2. 21 2. 25 2. 31 ' MONEY SUPPLY Total deposits and currency, less Government deposits, jumped $4.1 billion during November and December, The factor chiefly responsible for the rise was the expansion of bank loans and investments. BILLIONS LLIONS OF DOLLARS OF D O L L A R S 200 200 TOTAL I940 41 42 43 44 45 45 47 48 49 50 J F M END OF Y E A R A M J J A S O N DEPOSITS ADJUSTED AND CURRENCY SPRIVATELY-HELD MONEY SUPPLY) D J F M I949 A M J J A S O I950 N O J F M A M J J A S O N D I95I END OF MONTH COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL 'RESERVE SYSTEM. [Billions of dollars] Total deposits and currency End of period 1939 1945 1946 _ _ 1948 1949 1950 - -_ June 1951 5 -_- --. 1950: November. December 1951: January February March April _ •__ .. Mav June July... . August.. September October-- 5 November 5 December - U. S. Government deposits ' Deposits adjusted and currency (privately-held money supply)2 Currency Adjusted Time Total demand outside deposits * banks deposits a 64.7 176. 4 167.5 172. 7 173. 9 180.6 174.7 189. 5 1.5 25. 6 3.5 3. 6 4. 1 3. 7 4. 8 3. 8 63.3 150.8 164.0 169. 1 169. 8 176.9 170.0 185. 7 6. 4 26.5 26.7 26. 1 25.4 25.4 25.2 26. 5 29. 8 75.9 83.3 85.5 85.8 92. 3 85.0 98. 2 27. 1 48. 5 54.0 57.5 58. 6 59.2 59. 7 61.0 177.4 180.6 178.8 178.9 179. 9 179.8 179. 1 181. 3 180.8 181. 6 183. 8 185.8 187. 1 189. 5 3.5 3.7 3. 6 4.7 7.4 6.5 5.4 6. 6 5.0 4. 6 5. 9 4. 2 4. 4 3. 8 173.9 176.9 175.2 174.2 172. 5 173.3 173.7 174.7 175.8 177. 0 177.9 181. 6 182. 7 185. 7 24.9 25.4 24. 6 24. 6 24. 4 24. 6 24. 9 25.8 25. 1 25.3 25. 4 25.7 25.8 26. 5 90.3 92.3 91.6 90. 6 89.0 89.5 89.5 89.0 90. 7 91. 4 92. 0 95. 0 96.3 98.2 58.7 59.2 59.0 59.0 59. 1 59.2 59.3 59.9 60. 1 60. 4 60. 5 60. 9 60. 6 61. 0 1 includes U. 8. Government deposits at Federal Reserve banks, commercial and savings banks, and U. S. Treasurer's time deposits, open account. 2 Includes deposits and currency held by State and local governments. 3 Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection, 4 Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savines hnnks. qnd Postal Savins System, but excludes interbank deposits. s Estimates based on incomplete data; December by Council of Economic Advisers. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System (except as noted). 31 FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC The rise in cash payments in the fourth quarter resulted from the continuing advance in national security expenditures. Receipts declined in response to the seasonal drop in individual income tax collections (apart from withheld taxes). The excess of cash payments was far larger than in any quarter since 1945. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS zoi 20 ^CASH RECEIPTS CASH PAYMENTS A I960 EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS Hi EXCESS OF CASH tT PAYMENTS 1949 1948. 1950 " * P REU»,».RY ESTIMATES. CALENDAR YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE': BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT. [Millions of dollars] Federal cash receipts from the public Calendar year Calendar year total: 1946._—• — „. 1947. — 1948 --1949 1950 1951 ' Quarterly total, not adjusted for seasonal variation: 1949: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1950: First quarter. Second quarter Third quarter. Fourth quarter 1951: First quarter..-. Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter ' ' Preliminary estimates based on incomplete data. Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget. 32 - - Federal cash payments to the public 41,441 44, 282 44, 922 41, 346 42, 419 59,278 41, 399 38, 616 36, 897 42, 642 41, 969 58, 064 +42 + 5,666 +8, 027 -1,295 +450 + 1,214 13,122 8, 814 10, 143 9,267 12,235 9,303 10, 494 10, 387 18,051 I'l, '1(>2 18,093 12, 772 9,964 11, 389 10, 528 10, 762 10, 760 11, 105 9, 351 10, 754 11, 179 14, 521 If), 270 17, 0<M + 3, 159 -2, 574 -386 -1,495 + 1,475 -1,803 + 1,143 -367 + 6,874 -59 -1,277 -4, 322 NOTE.—Detail will jiol. necessarily :ul<l 1.0 tolals because of rounding. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U. S. Government Printing Olllcc, WIIH! Price 20 cents per copy ; $2.00 per year ; $2.00 foreign Excess of receipts (+) or payments (—) 25, D. C.