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82d Congress, 2d Session

Economic Indicate
1932
Prepared for the joint Committee on the Economic Report




by the Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1952

JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, Chairman
EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Via Chairman
JOHN J. SPARKMAN, Alabama
PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois
WILLIAM BENTON, Connecticut
ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio
RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont
ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah

WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas
RICHARD W. BOLLING, Missouri
CLINTON D. McKINNON, California
JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan
CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts
J. CALEB BOGGS, Delaware
GSOVBB W. ENSLET, Staff Director
JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
(Created pursuant to Sec. 4 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
LEON H. KEYSERLING, Chairman
JOHN D. CLARK
ROY BLOUGH

[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [S. J. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives e>f the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint
Committee on the Economic Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators,"
and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the
Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two
copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint
Committee on the Economic Report; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for
distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed
for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949
Charts drawn by Graphics Unit, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce

11



Contents
THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY

Page

The Nation's Economic Budget
Gross National Product

1
":

PRICES
Consumers' Prices
Wholesale Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
Stock Prices

3
4
^

EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
Civilian Labor Force
Nonagricultural Employment—Selected Industries
Average Weekly Hours—Selected Industries
Average Hourly Earnings Selected I n d u s ! ries
Average Weekly l'!:innfu;s Scleciol I n d u s ! D C S

,.

7
8
9
10
11

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
I ml MM i i.t 1 l ' i l i d i u I i o n

W e e k l y Product ion Selected i n d i c a t o r s
P r o d u c t ion ol Selected M a n u f a c t u r e s
New ( . o u s t r u c t i o n
New Housing Starts
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
New Corporate Security Issues
Inventories and Sales
Merchandise Exports and Imports

12

13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

PURCHASING POWER
National Income
Corporate Profits
Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving
Per Capita Disposable Income
Farm Income

21
22
23
24
25
26
27

CREDIT, MONEY, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
Bank Loans and Investments
Consumer Credit
Bond Yields and Interest Rates
Money Supply
„= „ „
Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public. .




28
29
30
31
32
111

TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONG.
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
The Government cash surplus of $6.7 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first half of 1951 was replaced
by a deficit of $5.1 billion in the second half.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES,SEASONALLY A D J U S T E D

CONSUMERS
I95I
FIRST HALF

I95I
SECOND HALF

BUSINESS
I95I
FIRST HALF

I95I
SECOND HALF

1951
FIRST HALF

I9SI
SECOND HALF

GOVERNMENT (Federal, Stote.and l o c a l )
1951
FIRST HALF
* T r a n s f e r payments
1951
SECONDHALF

EXCESS OF RECEIPTS (t), EXPENDITURES

(-)

FIRST HALF
-25

0

SECOND HALF

25

50

-50

-25

0

25

CONSUMERS
BUSINESS
INTERNATIONAL
GOVERMENT (Federal,State, and local)

TRANSFER PAYMENTS ARE INCLUDED IN RECEIPTS OR EXPENDITURES OF THE SEPARATE ACCOUNTS BUT NOT IN THE TOTAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT.
NOTE: SEE PAGE Z FOR THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET TOTAL [GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT).
SOURCE: ANNUAL ECONOMIC




REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JANUARY I9SZ, APPENDIX A.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Gross national product rose by about $5K billion from the third to the fourth quarter of 1951.
expenditures rose by $3 billion; personal consumption also expanded.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

National security

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

350

350

PRELIMINARY ESTfMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ftDVtSERS
COUNCIL OF

SOURCE:DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED)

ECONOMIC

ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars] Total gross
national
product

Period

1939 - - 1944
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950 3
1951

-

--

91. 3
213.7
211. 1
233. 3
259. 0
257. 3
282. 6
326. 8

Personal
consump- Gross private Net foreign
domestic
investment
tion expend- investment
itures

•

67. 5
111. 6
146. 9
165. 6
177.9
180. 2
193. 6
204. 4

9.9
7.7
28. 7
30.2
42. 7
33. 0
48. 9
58. 8

0.9
0 1
&* J.

4.6
8.9
1. 9
.5
-2.3
.1

Government purchases of goods and
services
Total

13.1
96.5
30.9
28. 6
36.6
43. 6
42. 5
63. 5

National
security '

Other '

1.2
87. 5
18. 5
12.0
15. 5
18. 9
18. 9
37.8

11.9
9.0
12.4
16.6
21. 1
24. 7
23.6
25.7

16.7
17. 1
17.9
23. 9
28.8
35.3
42. 0
44. 9

24.6
23. 0
22. 9
23.9
24. 6
25. 1
26.2
27. 1

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1950: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1951: First quarter . _
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter 3

264. 4
275.0
287.4
303.7
319. 0
327.8
327. 6
333. 0

184. 7
188.7
202. 5
198. 4
208. 2
201.7
202. 5
205. 0

40. 1
47. 9
47. 3
60.2
60. 1
(35. 6
55. 7
54.0

-1.7
-1.6
-3.2
-2. 7
-2. 7
.0
1. 2
2. 0

1
Based on Treasury Buttftin break-down of Fede:
and 1
related activities," Atomic Energy, Mutual Dei
Residua]; expenditures by the Federal Governmi
__
3
Preliminary estimates based on incomplete data; fourth quarter by Council of'Economic Advisers.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.




41.3
40. 1
40. 8
47.8
53. 4
60. 4
68. 2
72.0

CONSUMERS' PRICES
Consumers' prices rose another 0.6 percent between mid-October and mid-November. Apparei prir- were the
only group to decline. Retail food prices, which increased 1.0 percent, advanced another 0.6 percen:
end
of the year.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
24 O

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

[1935-39 = 100]
Period
1939 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average
1950 monthly average
June 15
November 15
December 15
1951: January 15 __ .
February 15
March 15
April 15
May 15
June 15
July 15
- _-.
August 15September 15
October 15- 1
Novernber 15
1

All items

99.4
123. 7
125. 7
128. 6
139. 5
171.9
170. 2
171.9
170 2
176 4
178 8
181. 5
183. 8
184 5
184. 6
185 4
185 2
185. 5
185. 5
186 6
187. 4
188. 6

Food
95. 2
138.0
136. 1
139. 1
159. 6
210. 2
201. 9
204. 5
203 1
210 8
216 3
221 9
226 0
226 2
225 7
227 4
226 9
227 7
227 0
227 3
229 2
231. 4

Apparel
100.5
129. 7
138.8
145. 9
160.2
198. 0
190. 1
187. 7
184 6
194 3
195 5
198 5
202 0
203 1
203 6
204 0
204 0
203 3
203 6
209 0
208 9
207.6

Fuel, electricity, and
refrigeration
104.3
99.0
107. 7
108. 7
109.8
109. 1
109. 5
110. 3
110. 1
112.4
121.2
133.9
137. 5
126. 4
131.0
140.6
130 9
139 1
132 5
142 5
142 8
132 9
133 2
143 3
143 9
134 0
144 2
134 7
144 0
135 1
143 6
135 4
135 7
143 6
144 0
136 2
144 2
136 8
137 5
144 4
144 6
138 2
144. 8
138. 9

Rent

Housefurnishings
101.3
125.6
136.4
145.8
159.2
195.8
189. 0
190. 2
184 8
201 1
203 2
207 4
209 7
210 7
211 8
212 6
212 5
212 4
210 8
211 1
210 4
210. 8

Miscellaneous
100.7
115. 8
121. 3
124. 1
128. 8
149. 9
154 6
156.5
154 6
159 2
160 6
162 1
163 2
164 3
164 6
165 0
164 8
165 0
165 4
166 0
166 6
168.4

A special survey of food prices indicated a rise of 0.2 percent between November 15 and December In and an additional increase of 0.4 by December 26.
NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities.
_
Source: Department of Labor.
The index has been revised, beginning with January 1940. to correct the downward bias resulting from the failure to take account of the differentials in rent between
newly built housing and comparable existing dwellings. Certain changes, starting with January 1950, in commodity coverage and weighting were linked into tbe index
providing an improved and consistent series.




WHOLESALE PRICES
Aside from some minor fluctuations in farm prices, wholesale prices have been very stable since early November.
Industrial prices have been especially noteworthy in this respect.
PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE
220

j

F

PERCENT OF t926 AVERAGE
220

M A M J J A S 0 N D[J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N DJJ F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N Q J F M A M J J .
1951
1946
J947
1948
1949
1950

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

[1926=100]
Period
1942 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average
1950 monthly average
June
1951 monthly average
1950: November
December
1951: January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November 1
December
Week ended:
1951: December 4111825 ~
1952: January
1_
1

Estimates based on change in weekly dat$,




98. 8
121.1
152. 1
165. 1
155.0
161.5
157.3
180.5
171.7
175.3
180. 1
183.6
184.0
183.6
182. 9
181.7
179.4
178. 0
177.6
178. 1
178.3
178.3

105. 9
148.9
181.2
188. 3
165.5
170.4
165.9
196.4
183.7
187.4
194.2
202. 6
203. 8
202. 5
199.6
198. 6
194.0
190.6
189. 2
192.3
195. 2
194. 2

99.6
130.7
168.7
179. 1
161.4
166.2
162. 1
186.9
175.2
179.0
182. 2
187.6
186.6
185.8
187.3
186. 3
186.0
187.3
188.0
189.4
188.8
187.5

Other than
'arm products
and foods
95.5
109.5
135. 2
151.0
147. 3
153. 2
148.7
169. 4
163.7
166. 7
170.3
171.8
172.4
172.3
171.6
170.5
168.6
167. 2
167. 0
166.7
166. 9
167.4

177. 1
177. 1
177.0
177.3
177.2
177.2

193.9
193.7
193.2
195. 1
193. 7
193.9

187.5
188.4
188. 9
189.2
189.2
188.8

165.5
165. 6
165.6
165.5
165.4
165.3

All commodities

Farm
products

Source: Department of Labor.

Foods

PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
In December, prices received by farmers advanced moderately and prices paid were unchanged.
rose 1 point to 1 07.
PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE

The parity rano

PERCENT OF !910->^

350

J F

1946
*

1947

1948

RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TfiXES AND WAGE RATES.

-SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1910-14=1001
Prices paid by
Prices
farmers (includreceived
ing interest, Parity ratio '
by farmers
taxes, and
wage rates)

Period

1939
1942
1944
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950

monthly average
monthly average
~
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
_
monthly average
monthly average -_
June 15
1951 monthly average
1950- November 15
December 15
1951: January 15
February 15-_ - _ -_
March 15
April 15
May 15
June 15
July 15
...
August 15
September 15
October 1 5
--_
November 1 5
_ .
December 1 5 _ _ _ _
1
3

__ _

_ _ _
-

_

- -

-

_

_

__ _ _

_

_
_

_

-

. __
_

-

_
. _ ._

_ _
_
_

_ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _

2
2

95
158
196
234
275
285
249
256
247
302
276
286
300
313
311
309
305
301
294
292
291
296
301
305

122
151
182
207
239
259
250
255
254
281

263
265
272
27 6

280
283
283
282
282
282
282
283
284
9S4

Ratio of index of prices received to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates.
Includes wartime subsidy payments paid on beef cattle, sheep, lambs, milk, and butterfat between October 1943 and June 1946.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
93330—52
2



78
105
108
113
115
110
100
100
97
107
105
108
110
113
111
109
108
107
104
104
103
105
106
ir>7

STOCK PRICES
Most stock prices moved upward in December.
PERCENT OF 1939 AVERAGE
250

PERCENT OF 1939 AVERAGE
250

J

J A

S 0

N D

1951

SOURCE:

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION.

Period
Weeklv average:
1940
.
1942
._.
1946
1949 . -1950
June
1951
-_ 1950: December. _ __ _
1951: January
__
February
March _
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
_ _
Week ended:
1951: December 1
8
15 ___
22
29__.
1952: January
5
12

Composite
index >

[1939=100]
Manufacturing
Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable
goods

Transportation Utilities

Trade,
finance,
and
service

Mining

90. 6
74.9
149. 6
127. 6
154. 1
158. 3
184.7
165. 2
176.7
184. 0
179.9
183. 1
181. 6
178. 8
181.8
189.7
194. 4
191. 4
185.0
190. 2

93.4
75. 5
146. 6
132. 1
165. 7
171. 1
206. 6
180. 4
194. 2
203.0
198.4
203. 8
202. 6
199. 9
204. 4
214.8
220. 4
215. 8
207. 5
214. 5

92. 5
73.7
138. 8
116.0
150. 4
156. 0
178.3
161. 7
174.8
181. 6
178.2
181.2
175.3
168. 9
170. 3
178. 5
185.2
185. 1
178. 4
182. 1

94. 2
77. 1
154.4
147.2
180. 2
185. 0
233.0
197.9
212. 3
222. 8
217.0
224. 8
228. 1
228. 7
236. 2
248. 8
253.0
244. 3
234. 6
244. 8

99. 1
90.8
202. 6
138.8
159. 9
149. 5
199. 2
184.4
202.0
213. 1
200. 0
201. 9
196. 7
188. 3
187. 9
195. 5
203.6
203. 3
194. 0
203.6

97.7
69. 8
121.0
98. 1
107. 2
114. 8
112. 5
106 5
110.3
112. 1
112.9
111.4
110. 4
109.9
111.2
114. 1
115.0
114. 3
113. 8
115.0

86. 7
71. 3
204.3
160. 5
183.8
182.4
208. 0
195. 7
205. 1
213.2
209. 7
207. 8
206. 0
200. 9
202. 2
206.0
214. 4
214.0
207. 8
209.0

75.9
59.7
125. 5
129.2
143. 5
143.0
204.9
159. 7
175.9
184. 2
176.7
183 4
187.7
186.0
195. 2
218.6
230.9
243. 6
238.8
238. 1

187.0
190. 9
190. 1
191. 1
192. 1
193. 5
194. 1

210.0
214. -8
214. 2
216. 2
217. 5
219. 0
219. 8

180. 1
183. 6
181. 4
181.5
183. 8
183. 9
183.8

237.8
243. 9
244. 8
248.5
248. 9
250. 9
253.3

198. 6
208. 2
204. 6
203.4
203.0
207. 0
208.6

114.2
115. 4
115. 1
114. 7
115. 4
115. 7
116.7

209. 5
211. 3
209. 2
207. 1
207.8
209. 6
208. 4

233.8
242. 7
238. 1
238. 9
237. 0
235.0
242. 3

1 Includes 265 common stocks, distributed as follows: 14 for mining, 98 for durable goods manufacturing, 72 for nondurable goods manufacturing, 21 for
transportation, 28 for utilities, and 32 for trade, finance, and service.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.




EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE
A total of 61 million persons were engaged in civilian employment in December. An increase of 320,0
agricultural employment was more than offset by a seasonal decline in agriculture. Unemployment dea
level of about 1.7 million, or 2.7 percent of the civilian labor force.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

70

UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE

0

1939

1944

1948

1949

1950

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

Period

1939 monthly average
1944 monthly average _ _ _
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average
1950 monthly average
June
_ -_
1951 monthly average
1950: November
December
1951* January
February
March
April
May

June _
July
August
September
October
November
December

I960

_

-

_
-. .
_ _ _ _
- -,

Civilian labor force
UnemEmployment 1
Total
ployAgricul- NonagriTotal
ment
cultural
tural
Thousands of persons, 14 years of age and over
55, 230
9,480
36, 140
9, 610
45, 750
54, 630
670
45, 010
8, 950
53, 960
60, 168
2, 142
49, 761
58, 027
8,266
61,442
2, 064
51, 405
59, 378
7, 973
62, 105
50, 684
58, 710
3,395
8,026
63, 099
3, 142
52, 450
7,507
59, 957
64, 866
52, 436
61, 482
3, 384
9, 046
62, 884
61,005
53, 951
1,879
7,054
61,271
63, 512
53, 721
2,240
7,551
60, 308
62, 538
2,229
6,234
54, 075
59, 010
61, 514
52, 993
2, 503
6, 018
52, 976
58, 905
61, 313
5, 930
2,407
60, 179
62, 325
53, 785
6, 393
2, 147
60, 044
61,789
1,744
53, 400
6,645
62, 803
61, 193
1, 609
53, 753
7, 440
61,803
63, 783
53, 768
1,980
8,035
62, 526
64, 382
1, 856
54, 618
7, 908
62, 630
64, 208
54, 942
7, 688
1, 578
61, 580
63, 186
54, 054
1, 606
7,526
61, 836
63, 452
54, 168
7, 668
1, 616
61, 336
63, 164
7, 022 ' 54, 314
1, 828
61, 014
62, 688
54, 636
1,674
6, 378

Unemployment as percent of total
civilian
labor force

17.2
1. 2
3.6
3.4
5. 5
5.0
5. 2
3.0
3. 5
3.6
4. 1
3.9
3. 4
2.8
2. 6
3. 1
2.9
2.5
2.5
2.5
2. 9
2.7

1
Includes part-time workers and those who had jobs but were not at work for such reasons as vacation, illness, bad weather, temporary lay-oS
and industrial disputes.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.




^

NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
Manufacturing employment declined about 80,000 in November, but was still above a year ago. Employment
in the durable goods sector increased slightly. There was a large seasonal increase in trade employees.
MILLIONS OF WAGE
AND SALARY WORKERS

MILLIONS OF WAGE
AND SALARY WORKERS

9.5

8.5

DURABLE MANUFACTURING

0 f

i

l

l

I

I

NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING

I

I

I

I

I

~1

0 ~
J

I

I

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION

F

' I
M

I
A

M

J

J

A

S

0

N

0

A

J

S

0

N

D

TRADE

oC_J

L

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of wage and salary workers ']
Manufacturing
Period
Total
1939
1943
1946
1948
1949
1950

monthly average _ _ _
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
June
1950: October
November
December
1951: January
February
March
-_
April
_May__
June
July
August
September 2
October 2 2
November

10, 078
17, 381
14, 461
15, 286
14, 146
14, 884
14, 666
15, 827
15, 765
15, 789
15, 784
15, 978
16, 022
15, 955
15, 853
15, 956
15, 813
16, 008
16, 020
15, 940
15, 861

Durable Nondugoods rable goods
4, 683
11 077
7 739
8 315
7 465
8 008
7 964
8 618
8 664
8 717
8 742
8 877
8 969
9 003
8 975
8 998
8 839
8 878
8 902
8 922
8 944

5, 394
6,304
6, 722
6,970
6, 681
6,876
6,702
7,209
7, 101
7,072
7,042
7, 101
7, 053
6, 952
6,878
6, 958
6, 974
7, 130
7, 118
7,018
6, 917

Contract
construction
1, 150
1,567
1, 661
2, 165
2, 156
2.318
2, 414
2, 631
2,571
2,403
2, 281
2,228
2,326
2, 471
2,598
2, 686
2,754
2, 809
2,761
2,750
2, 637

Trade

6, 612
7, 189
8, 602
9, 491
9, 438
9, 524
9, 411
9, 752
9, 896
10, 443
9,592
9, 554
9,713
9,627
9,683
9, 732
9,667
9, 641
9, 774
9,871
10, 024

Finance
and
service

Government
(Federal,
State,
local)

Transportation
and
public
utilities

4,703
5,320
6,207
6,515
6, 545
6. 573
6, 653
6,578
6, 543
6,522
6,497
6,496
6,536
6, 610
6, 663
6, 728
6, 760
6,753
6, 728
6,670
6, 634

3,987
6, 049
5,607
5,613
5,811
5, 910
5, 832
6,039
6,037
6,376
6,088
6, 122
6,217
6,292
6,377
6,377
6, 356
6,401
6, 544
6, 532
6,497

2,912
3, 619
4,023
4, 151
3, 979
4, 010
4,023
4, 132
4, 123
4, 125
4,072
4, 082
4, 112
4, 132
4, 137
4, 161
4, 176
4, 190
4, 178
4, 167
4, 167

Mining

845
917
852
981
932
904
946
939
938
937
932
930
924
911
915
927
906
922
916
911
916

1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending nearest
the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 7) which include proprietors, selfemployed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on an
enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
2
Preliminary estimates.
, .- ' '
Source: Department of Labor.

8



AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
Average weekly hours in manufacturing industries showed practically no change in November. A slight increase
nondurable manufacturing was more than offset by a small decrease in the durable goods sector.

NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING

DURABLE MANUFACTURING
44

44

I

42

42
^""^

V/
40

1

HOU RS PER W E E K

HOU S PER WEEK

XA/VS^V

^\^""*^

40

" ~ ^
~ ~
38

38

\\J^-v

^

V

36

36

~

•^^

'-—

0

0
1948

1950

1949

J

1

1

1

1948

1951

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

! I I 1 1 1 I ! i

1949

• •

" , , , , , I , , , 771

1950

195

RETAIL TRADE

BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
42

42

40

40

38

36

/^\/
V

v^~VNy-x

^

i 11 i i 1i i i i i
1946

SOURCE : D E P A R T M E N T

1949

38

34

V

0

S\

36

N/

34

^/A^/v^-^"V/v

1950

1 1 1 1 I

M i l l

n

"r, , , , i

:

:

r

1948

1951

~

'

1949

r

I ' M , 77

1950

1951

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

OF LA00R.

[Hours per week, selected industries'
Manufacturing •
Period

Total

1939
1943
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950

monthly average
monthly average
monthly average _ monthly average
monthly average _ _ _
monthly average
monthly average __
June
October
November
_ December __
1951" January
February
March_
_
_ __
April
_ __
May. ..
June
July
. _ ...
August
.
4
September
4
October 4
. _ . _.
November
i For production and related workers.
»Not availabe.




37 ^
44 9
40 4
40 4
40 1
39 2
40 5
40 5
41 3
41 1
41 4
41 0
40 9
41. 1
41 0
40 7
40 7
40 2
40 3
40 6
40 4
40 3
3

Durable
goods

Nondurable
goods

38 0
46 6
40 2
40 6
40 5
39 5
41 2
41 3
42 1
41 8
42 2
41 5
41 6
41. 9
42 0
41 8
41 8
40 9
41 3
41 5
41 6
41 3

Not strictly comparable with previous data.

37
42
40
40
39
38
39
39
40
40
40
40
40
40
39
39
39
39
39
39
38
39

4
5
5
1
6
8
7
5
3
3
5
2
0
0
7
3
4
3
1
3
9
1

Building
construction Retail trade
32 6
' 38 4
38. 1
37 6
2
( ) 37. 3
36 7
36. 3
37 0
37 4
37 3
36. 7
36 7
35 3
35. 8
36 8
37 5
37 7
38. 1
38. 2
38 2
38 6
(2)

(3)
(3)
(3)

40. 3
40. 3
40. 4
40. 5
40. 9
40. 3
40. 0
40. 7
40. 3
40. 1
39.7
39. 9
39. 8
40. 4
40. 8
40.8
40. 1

39. 8

(2)

* Preliminary estimates.
Source: Department

9

AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
Average hourly earnings in durable manufacturing industries remained at about the same level in November while
there was a rise of 1 cent in the nondurables group.
DOLLARS PER HOUR

DOLLARS PER HOUR

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Production and related workers in selected industries]
All manufacturing

Durable goods
manufacturing

Nondurable goods
manufacturing

Building
construction

Retail trade

Period
1950
Current
1950
Current
1950
1950
Current
1950
Current
Current
dollars dollars ' dollars dollars ' dollars dollars ' dollars dollars ' dollars dollars *

1939 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1946 monthly average _
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average
1950 monthly average .
June
October
November
December
1951: January..
February
March
April
May.
June
__ __
July
August
September 4
October 4 _ _ _ _ .
November 4

$0. 633
. 961
1.086
1. 237
1.350
1. 401
1. 465
1. 453
1. 501
1. 514
1. 543
1. 555
1. 561
1. 571
1. 578
1. 586
1. 599
1. 598
1. 596
1. 612
1. 614
1. 619

$1. 095
1. 335
1.337
1. 333
1. 350
1.415
1.465
1. 468
1. 469
1.476
1. 484
1.473
1. 460
1. 464
1. 469
1. 470
1. 485
1. 481
1. 479
1. 484
1. 481
1. 476

$0. 698
.059
. 156
.292
.410
. 469
. 537
1. 522
1.577
1.587
1.619
1. 630
1. 639
1. 654
1. 659
1. 665
1. 681
1. 682
1. 684
1. 703
1. 703
1. 705

* Current dollars divirlpd by fonsn.Ttprc' n rj n e index QQ base 1350 = 100.

2
3
4

Not strictly comparable with previous data.
Not available.
Preliminary estimates.
Source: Department of Labor. : - • - • •

10



$1. 208
1.471
1. 424
1. 392
1. 410
1.484
1. 537
1. 537
1.543
1.547
1.557
1. 544
1.533
1. 541
1. 545
1.543
1. 561
1.559
1.-561
1. 568
1. 562
1. 554

$0. 582
. 803
1.015
1. 171
1.278
1.325
1.378
1.365
1.404
1.419
1. 443
1. 456
1. 458
1. 460
1. 465
1.474
1. 484
1. 488
1.481
1. 490
1. 491
1. 501

$1. 007
1. 115
1. 250
1. 262
1. 278
1.338
1.378
1. 379
1. 374
1.383
1. 338
1.379
1. 364
1.361
1.364
1. 366
1.378
1. 379
1.373
1. 372
1. 368
1. 368

SO. 932
1. 252
1.478
1. 681
3
1. 848
1. 935
2. 031
1.995
2.082
2. 093
2. 120
2. 135
2. 157
2. 163
2. 167
2. 182
2. 194
2. 195
2.207
2. 233
2.235
(2)

$1. 612
1. 739
1. 820
1. 811
2
1. 848
1.955
2. 033
2.015
2.037
2.040
2.038
2.022
2. 018
2.016
2.018
2. 022
2.037
2. 034
2. 045
2.056
2.050
(2)

s
(3)
(3)
()
$1. 009
1.088
1. 137
1. 176
1. 175
1. 199
1. 198
1. 187
1.237
1. 236
1.233
1.249
1.252
1. 256
1. 262
1.259
1.269
1. 266
(2)

(3)
(3)
(3)
$1. 087
1.088
1. 148
1. 176
1. 187
1. 173
1. 168
1. 141
1. 171
1. 156
1. 149
1. 163
1. 160
1. 166
1. 170
1. 167
1. 169
1. 150
(2)

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
Average weekly earnings in durable manufacturing industries declined somewhat in November.
were more than offset by increases in the nondurables segment.
.DOLLARS PER WEEK

DOLLARS PER WEEK

• r . . . . ! . . . . . ! . . . . . ! . . . . . ! . . . . , 1 . . . . . I . . . . . i . . i rn
1946

These decreases

1949

1950

I 1 1 1 1 ! 1 I i IJ I | Lj I..1..L.I I I 1 i 1 I 1 1 I ! I I I 1 t

I,1LJt

1 1 Ll I 1 Ll~l

1951

* CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY CONSUMERS* PRICE INDEX ON BASE 1950*100.
SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

fProduction and related workers in selected industries]
AH manufacturing

Durable goods
manufacturing

Nondurable goods
manufacturing

Building
construction

Retail trade

Period
1950
Current
1950
Current
1950
Current
1950
Current
1950
Current
dollars dollars ' dollars dollars ' dollars dollars ' dollars dollars ' dollars dollars '

1939
1943
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950

monthly average
$23. 86
monthly average
43. 14
43.82
monthly average. _
monthly average
49. 97
54. 14
monthly average. -54. 92
monthly average
59.33
monthly average
June
_ _ 58. 85
October
61. 99
November
62.23
December
63.88
63. 76
1951: January
February
63. 84
64. 57
March
64.70
April
64. 55
May
65. 08
June
July . ..- . _.
64. 24
August- 4_ _ __
64. 32
September
65.45
4
65. 21
October 4- _
November
65.25

$41. 28
59.92
53.97
53.85
54. 14
55.47
59. 33
59. 44
60. 66
60. 65
61.42
60. 38
59. 72
60. 18
60. 24
59. 82
60. 43
59. 54
59. 61
60.27
59. 83
59. 48

$26. 50
49. 30
46. 49
52. 46
57. 11
58. 03
63. 32
62. 86
66. 39
66. 34
68.32
67. 65
68. 18
69. 30
69. 68
69. 60
70.27
68. 79
69. 55
70.67
70. 84
70. 42

i Current dollars divided hy. ronsjimers' "rice index on base 1950= 100.
Not strictly comparable with pre«o'us data.
~•
Not available.
* Preliminary estimates.

$45. 85 $21. 78 $37. 68
47. 39
34. 12
68.47
41. 14
50. 67
57.25
50. 60
56. 53
46. 96
50.61
57. 11
50. 61
58.62
51. 41
51. 93
54. 71
63.32
54.71
54. 46
63. 49
53. 92
55. 36
64. 96
56. 58
55.74
64. 66
57. 19
56. 19
58. 44
65. 69
55. 43
64. 06
58.53
54. 56
58. 32
63. 78
54. 43
58.40
64.59
54. 15
58. 16
64. 88
53.69
64. 50
57. 93
54. 29
65. 25
58. 47
58. 48 . 54. 20
63. 75
53. 67
57. 91
64. 46
53. 92
65.07 * 58. 56
53. 21
58. 00
64. 99
53. 50
58. 69
64. 1.9

$30. 39
48. 13
56. 24
63. 30
2
68. 85
70.95
73. 73
73. 82
77. 87
78.07
77. 80
78.35
76. 14
77.44
79.75
81. 83
82. 71
83. 63
84. 31
85. 30
86. 27
(2)

$52. 58
66. 85
69. 26
68.21
2
68. 85
71.67
73.73
74.57
76. 19
76. 09
74.81
74. 20
71.23
72,17
74. 26
75. 84
76. 80
77.51
78. 14
78. 55
79.' 15
(2)

(3)
(3)
(s)
$40. 66
43.85
45. 93
47.63
48. 06
48. 32
47.92
48. 31
49.85
49. 56
48.95
49.84
49.83
50. 74
51. 49
51.37
50. 89
50. 39
(3)

(3)
(s3)
()
$43. 81
43. 85
46.39
47. 63
48. 55
47. 28
46.71
46. 45
47. 21
46. 36
45. 62
46. 41
46. 18
47. 11
47.72
47. 61
46. 86
46.23
(2)

3
a

Source: Department of Labor.




11

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
In December, total industrial production remained at the November level, according to preliminary data. The
manufacture of durable goods continued to rise slowly/ output of nondurables and minerals dropped.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
400

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
400
ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL

VARIATION

DURABLE MANUFACTURES

1
1940

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

1

1

)

1

1

J F M A M ' J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J ' F M A M J J A S O N D

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.

[1935-39—100, seasonally adjusted]
Total
industrial
production

Period
1943 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average
1950 monthly average
June
1951 monthly average '
1950: November
December .
1951: January

February...
March _ .
April
_
May

June
Julv__
.
August
__.
September
October
November 1
December *
> Preliminary estimates.

12



BManufacture s

Total

Durable
goods

Nonduraable goods

Minerals

239
170
187
192
176
200
199

..

_ _

258
177
194
198
183
209
208

360
192
220
225
202
237
237

176
165
172
177
168
187
184

132
134
149
155
135
148
151

219
215

229
224

273
260

194
195

165
160

218
221
221
222
223
222
221
212
217
219
218
218
218

229
231
232
234
234
233
231
222
226
228
226
227
227

268
268
271
277
279
276
274
265
267
272
274
275
276

197
201
201
199
198
198
197
187
193
163
188
188
187

157
164
158
158
164
165
165
156
165
167
174
171
168

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORS
Steel production rose to an all-time high in fhe week ended December 22. Bituminous coal output reached a pea!
for the year in the week ended December 1, and then declined. Motor vehicle assemblies in December averaged
below the low rate of output of November.
MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS (DAILY AVERAGE)

MILLIONS OF TONS

3

3

SOURCE: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE. DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR. EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, AND WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS.

Steel1
Percent of
Thousands of
theoretical
net tons
capacity

Period
Weekly average:
1949
1950 - - - - ._
June
1951 3
1950: December
_ _
1951: January
February
March
April
May —
June July.
.
August
_. _ _
September
October
__
_.
November 3
December
- Week ended:
1951: December 1
8

15

22
29

1952: January

5

12

_--

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Electric power,
by utilities
(millions of
kilowatt-hours)

Bituminous
coal
(thousands of
short tons) J

Cars and
trucks
(number)

1,496
1,857
1,898
2,016
1, 890
1, 996
1, 941
2,048
2,061
2,053
2,018
1,964
1,971
2,022
2, 058
2, 050
2,010

81.0
96.9
99.6
100. 9
98.0
99.9
97. 1
102.4
103. 1
102.7
100. 9
98.2
98. 6
101.2
102. 9
102.5
100.5

5,500
6,183
6,038
6,958
6,852
6, 866
6,948
6, 827
6,722
6, 557
6,804
6,699
7, 092
7,012
7, 175
7,336
7,464

1,427
1,687
1, 762
1, 777
1, 918
1, 980
1, 685
1,662
1,734
1, 638
1,726
1,706
1, 747
1,779
1,909
1, 977
1, 753

120, 350
153, 546
192, 825
129, 308
149, 932
134, 242
151, 071
170, 253
152, 948
140, 461
147, 582
112, 166
119, 302
115, 721
112, 441
105, 037
90, 476

2, 079
2, 071
2,081
2,098
2, 020
2,039
2,041

104. 0
103. 6
104. 1
104. 9
101.5
102. 0
102. 1

7,476
7, 444
7,667
7, 824
6,922
7, 149

2, 024
1,874
1, 912
1, 783
1,571
1,825

112, 825
112, 465
111,410
102, 837
35, 193
48, 545
87, 318

' Weekly data are scheduled rates of operation; monthly figures are for actual output except latest month which is an average of the weekly estimates. Percent
of capacity based on weekly net ton capacity of 1,749,928 for 1947,1,802,476 for 1948, 1,843,516 for 1949, 1,906,268 for the first half of 1950,1,928,721 beginning July
a
3
1,1950, and 1,999,034 beginning January 1,1951.
Daily average for week.
Preliminary estimates.
Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Automotive Eeports.
TO
3
93330—52



Output of lumber and nonferrous metals rose in November, although they did not regain their 1951 highs. Machinery
production again surpassed previous postwar levels. Among the nondurable industries, chemicals and foods continued to decline, but petroleum and coal products rose to an all-Hme high, while textiles increased slightly for the
first time since August.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE (ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION)
300

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE (ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION)
300

IX

MACHINERY

V

V
MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS

J^bv_^
NONFERROUS METALS V /
AND PRODUCTS
\
/

I

1940

42

I

44

I

I

46

I I L

48

1 1 I!

LU I I I I I I I I 1

50

1949

I960

1940 42

1951

44 46

48

M 1

1 ! 1 M

! M 1i

1 1 M

I

1 M 1

50
C O U N C I L OF ECONOMIC AQVISES

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.

[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Nondurable manufactures

Durable manufactures
Period

1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average --1949 monthly average _ _
1950 monthly average
June
October
November
December _
1951* January
February
-- March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November : __ __ -_
' Preliminary estimates.

14



Iron and
steel

208
150
195
208
188
229
231
253
246
253
255
252
263
264
263
261
253
254
258
261
260

Lumber
and
products

129
131
143
145
130
159
155
166
169
173
171
169
169
170
163
153
141
146
146
149
155

Nonferrous Textiles
and
Machinery metals and
products
products

443
240
276
277
234
270
262
303
311
321
322
328
335
337
336
338
327
328
336
341
343

267
157
187
193
160
207
207
223
226
227
224
217
209
211
206
205
199
197
199
202
208

153
162
163
170
147
182
173
197
193
194
194
194
188
185
190
185
160
170
164
155
156

Petroleum Manufacand coal tured food
products
products

185
173
193
218
209
229
222
251
253
263
272
269
269
255
263
263
262
265
265
268
277

145
149
157
159
163
164
164
162
161
165
168
166
167
168
167
165
164165
166
163
161

Chemical
products

384
236
251
254
241
263
261
277
280
284
287
288
292
296
298
302
305
306
303
299
297

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

NEW CONSTRUCTION
The value of total new construction (seasonally adjusted) rose slightly in December, with a $40 million increase in
public construction more than offsetting the decline in private construction. Private nonfarm residential construction
fell, reversing the trend of recent months.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
3.0OO

3,000
ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION

2,500

2,000

2,000

PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL
\
(NONFARM]

1,000

OTHER PRIVATE

X

FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL

_!

L.

I

I

J

I

L

J

I

I

1952

SOURCES

D E P A R T M E N T OF C O M M E R C E AND D E P A R T M E N T OF LABOR.

[Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Total new
construction

Period
1939 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average _
1950 monthly average
June _
1951 monthly average 2
1950: November
December
1951: January
February.
March
April
May__ _
June
July
August
September
October _
November,,
_
December 2 _
_
1
2

Includes public residential construction.
Preliminary estimates.




_ _

._

683
1,173
438
1,000
1,798
1,883
2, 325
2,316
2.489
2, 498
2,439
2, 506
2, 544
2,667
2,627
2,532
2,483
2, 443
2,423
2,428
2, 392
2, 406
2,412

Total
private

Private construction
Residential
Other
(nonfarm)

366
285
182
803
1,389
1, 350
1,732
1, 737
1,735
1,833
1,807
1,832
1,886
1, 908
1, 845
1,763
1,717
1,708
1, 677
1,671
1, 634
1, 608
1, 574

223
143
68
335
715
691
1,050
1,072
910
1,078
1,055
1,059
1,083
1,072
991
888
849
836
808
815
837
849
828

142
142
114
469
674
659
682
665
826
755
752
773
803
836
854
875
868
872
869
856
797
759
746

Federal,
State, and
local '

317
888
256
197
409
532
593
579
753
665
632
674
658
759
782
769
766
735
746
757
758
798
838

Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.

15

NEW HOUSING STARTS
New housing starts continued to decline in December, dropping to 62,000.
about 22 percent less than in 1950 and 6 percent more than in 1949.

Total for the year was 1,090,000,
k^^i^a

THOUSANDS OF UNITS

THOUSANDS OF UNITS
200

200

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

New nonfarm units started
Month

1948

1949

January
February _ _
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October _ _
November
December _

39, 300
42, 800
56, 000
67, 100
72, 900
77, 200
81, 100
86, 300
93, 800
94, 000
79, 700
58, 800

53, 500
50, 100
76, 400
99, 500
100, 300
97, 800
95, 000
86, 700
82, 300
73, 400
63, 700
52, 900

50, 000
50, 400
69, 400
88, 300
95, 400
95, 500
96, 100
99, 000
102, 900
104, 300
95, 500
78, 300

Total

__
_ _
._

.
.

Monthly average

.

78, 700
82, 900
117, 300
133, 400
149, 100
144, 300
144, 400
141, 900
120, 600
102. 500
87, 300
93, 600

849, 000

931, 600

1, 025, 100

1, 396, 000

_ _ _

70, 750

77, 600

85, 425

* Preliminary estimates. December data became available after the chart was prepared.

16




1951

1950

1947

116, 300

85, 900
80, 600
93, 800
96, 200
101, 000
132, 500
90, 500
96, 400
1
91, 000
1
86, 000
1
76, 000
1
62, 000
1

1, 090, 000
1

90, 800

Source: Department of Labor.

EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
Nonfarm plant and equipment expenditures in the fourth quarter of 1951 were 18 percent higher than they had been
a year previous. On the basis of reported business plans, about the same ratio would hold in the first quarter of
1952 also.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25

SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal variation]
Total »

Period
1939
1941-.
1945
1948 .
1949.-.
1950 3
1951 __
1950: First quarter
Second Quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1951 ' Firat quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter 3
Fourth quarter
1952: First quarter 3 _ _

- _ ._

-_
- .

_ --

5, 213
8, 190
7, 406
20, 032
18, 021
17, 832
23, 125
14, 476
16, 732
18, 048
22, 068
19,452
23, 652
23, 376
26, 024
22, 916

Manufacturing
1, 943
3, 400
3,983
9, 134
7, 149
7, 491
11, 141
5,776
6, 856
7,436
9, 896
8, 616
11,208
11, 364
1.3, 380
12, 040

Mining

Transportation
Railroad

380
680
443
802
738
684
806
584
640
720
792
732
812
796
884
832

280
560
552
1,319
1,350
1, 136
1, 564
928
1, 192
1, 140
1,280
1, 212
1, 648
1,508
1,888
1, 596

Other
280
340
321
700
525
437
517
316
360
492
580
500
544
480
544
552

Electric and Commercial
gas utilities and miscellaneous a
480
710
630
2, 683
3, 140
3, 167
3, 654
2,612
3, 032
3, 284
3,740
3, 012
3, 572
3,732
4, 300
3, 536

1,850
2,490
1,477
5, 394
5, 119
4, 917
5,443
4,260
4, 652
4, 976
5,780
5,380
5,868
5, 496
5, 028
4, 360

* Excludes agriculture.
1
Commercial and miscellaneous composed of trade, service, finance, and communication.
3
Estimates for fourth quarter 1950 and first quarter 1951 based on anticipated capital expenditures of business as reported in a survey made in late October
a nd during November.
NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the
latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve
Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other data.
Revised data for 1945 and subsequent years bccan e available after chart was prepared.
.
. . . . . .
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted).




17

NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES
In the third quarter of 1951, total net proceeds from new security issues declined seasonally. The total, however,
was almost 25 percent above the corresponding period of a year ago.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

3.0

3.0

1939

1943

1948

1949

I960

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.

[Millions of dollars]
Proposed uses of net proceeds
Estimated
net proceeds

Period

New money
Total

1939 quarterly average- 1943 quarterly average
1946 quarterly average _
1947 quarterly average
1948 quarterly average
1949 quarterly average- -_
1950 quarterly average
1949- Third quarter
Fourth quarter
11950' First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1951' First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter 2
1

- -

--

_-

_

_

- __

_
._

Includes small amount for other purposes.
' Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because ot rounding.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.




529
287
1,689
1, 617
1,740
1,490
1,565
1,009
1,299
1,325
2,222
1, 145
1, 569
1,730
2,361
1, 413

81
77
820
1, 148
1,482
1,152
1,002
789
862
941
1, 251
771
1,044
1,461
1,987
1,260

Plant and
equipment
43
35
529
852
1,055
931
741
669
596
759
948
571
687
1,167
1, 422
970

Working
capital
39
42
291
296
427
220
260
120
265
182
302
200
356
293
565
290

Retirement
of debt and
stock >
448
210
869
469
258
338
564
219
438
384
971
374
525
270
374
153

INVENTORIES AND SALES
In November, the increase in manufacturers' inventories slowed further while trade inventories fell slightly.
facturers' sales in October and November were at the highest level since the spring of 1951.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS Of DOLLARS

RETAIL

TOTAL AND MANUFACTURING
MONTHLY AVERAGE

Manu-

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

MONTHLY AVERAGE

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
INVENTORIES
.--

,.•*•••'

SALE

/\

/ TOTAL INVENTORIES

TOTAL SALES*

1940

./

42

44 46 48 5O

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

MANUFACTURING
INVENTORIES

MANUFACTURING
SALES

....1.J. L_LL1J LLJ lm'!J-1i-L-UiliLiI i.l i ' ' | -- | -l' ! l i t I i t i II1940 42 44 46 4B 50

•x-

1950

1951

1952

1940 42 44 46

48

50

1951

1952

WHOLESALE, MANUFACTURING, AND RETAIL.-

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE

Period

Total business l
InvenSales 3
tories 2

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Retail
Inventories 2

Manufacturing

Sales

3

Inventories a

Sales »

Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted

20, 051
31, 343
_
30, 893
42, 942
--- -- 50, 605
55, 647
" 50, 921
60, 434
52, 828
June
October
57, 112
November
58, 954
December
60, 434
1951: January
62, 050
63, 416
February
March
65, 240
67, 361
April
Mav
68, 981
69, 442
Ju lie
July
70, 268
70, 083
August
September 7
69, 922
October 7 7
70, 008
November
69, 880

1939
1943
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950

10, 802
21, 920
23, 852
27, 151
33, 156
36, 438
34, 467
39, 051
39, 239
41, 208
40, 612
42, 254
45, 933
44, 826
44, 242
43, 470
44, 748
43, 072
41, 729
43, 048
41, 348
44, 319
44, 044

5, 534
7, 561
7, 949
11, 852
14, 060
15, 828
14, 502
17, 793
15, 574
17, 390
17. 704
17, 793
18, 455
19, 044
19, 743
20, 346
20, 643
20, 282
20, 045
19, 429
18, 761
18, 545
18, 408

1
Also includes wholesale, not shown separately in this table.
* Book value, end of period. Revised trade data nofavaflable prior to 1948.
3
Monthly average for year and total for month.
* Data for new orders not adjusted for seasonal variation.

3, 504
5,270
6, 503
8,541
9, 9G7
10, 877
10, 893
11, 974
12, 069
12, 043
11. 768
12,611
13. 612
13, 343
12, 653
12, 307
12, 431
12, 260
12, 077
12, 448
12, 276
12, 566
12, 469

5, 112
12, 820
12, 873
12, 617
15, 918
17, 630
16, 339
19, 064
19, 271
20, 684
20, 524
21, 048
22, 560
22, 261
22, 605
22, 479
23, 434
22, 133
21, 268
21, 776
20, 706
22, 592
22, 592

1
8 Index of book value, end
Not available.
7

InvenNew
Sales 8
tories '
orders
(millions of Index 1935-39=100,
dollars) * seasonally adjusted
106
102
(6)
168
155
(6)
207
166
(6)
264
213
13, 694
286
255
15, 622
302
291
17, 337
286
270
15, 791
304
295
20, 643
298
276
20, 698
291
329
23, 744
290
332
21, 367
325
329
22, 792
362
338
27, 940
326
349
25, 554
291
368
28, 220
302
377
23,517
301
365
22, 830
302
353
22, 361
309
353
20, 790
342
319
22, 809
312
335
21, 283
303
24, 000
(6)
23, 000
(8)
(6)

of period.
.-....,

Preliminary estimates':

Source: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Beserve System.




11,465
20, 098
18, 390
24, 498
28, 920
31, 734
28, 690
33, 253
29, 123
30, 947
32, 245
33, 253
34, 120
34, 657
35, 557
36, 908
38, 068
39, 009
39, 908
40, 580
41, 089
41, 354
41, 462

Department stores

19

MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
Exports, after declining from September to October, increased by 18 percent in November. Imports declined
slightly. Merchandise exports and the export surplus in November were the highest reached in 1951.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,600

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,600

1,200

1,200

* RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, AND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AREAS.
** RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF. COMMERCE,

DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT. OF THE NAVY.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars]
Period

Exports '

1, 065

1
Eecorded
1

- „__
- —

207
282
411
480
594
552
738
687
922
855
867

974

1936-38 monthly average
1943 monthly average
- -1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
-1948 monthly average .
.-- 1949 monthly average
-1950 monthly average - _ June
October
November
__December
__-__
1951: January.- - -February
~
March
- April
May.
Julv
August
September
October ._

1,023

247

1, 080
812

1, 278
1,054
1, 003
856
877
906
977

- -

_ -

1, 076
1, 285
1, 372
1, 354
1, 292
1, 189
1, 267
1, 232
1. 154

merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas.
Recorded general merchandise imports.
NOTE: Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce! Department of the Army, and Department of tfa.8 Nary,

20




Imports 2

909

1, 100
1/033
1,018
929
894
881
718
832

Excess of
exports ( + ),
imports (— )
+ 40
+ 798
+ 400
+ 799
+ 461
+ 451
+ 119
+ 190
— 16
+ 122
+ 198
-49
+ 167
+ 186
+ 339
+ 336
+ 362
+ 295
+ 386
+ 514
+ 32?

PURCHASING POWER
NATIONAL INCOME
AH principal components of national income shared in the $4 billion rise between the third and fourth quarters of
1951.
BILLIONS OF DOLL

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1939

1944

. 1948

1949

1950

1951

J/ PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.
SOURCE:

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED)

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
Total
national
income

Period

1939
1944
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951 i

-

- - --_ - --

72. 5
183. 8
180. 3
198. 7
223. 5
216. 7
239. 0
276.0

Corporate profits and inventory
valuation adjustment

Compensation of
employees

Proprietors'
(business,
professional,
farm)
and rental
income

Net interest

47. 8
121. 2
117. 1
128.0
140. 2
139. 9
153. 3
178. 1

14.7
35.5
42. 0
42. 4
47.3
41. 4
44. 0
49. 0

4.2
3. 1
2.9
3.5
4.3
4. 9
5.4
5.7

Total

5.8
24. 0
18. 3
24. 7
31. 7
30.5
36. 2
43. 1

Profits
before
taxes

Inventory
valuation
adjustment

6.5
24. 3
23. 5
30.5
33.8
28. 3
41. 4
44. 8

—0.7
-.3
-5.2
-5.8
-2. 1
+ 2.1
-5. 1
-1.7

31. 9
37.5
45.7
50.3
51. 8
45. 4
'40. 0
42. 0

-1.4
-2.7
-8.3
-8.2
-8. 9
-2.3
+ 2.8
+ 1.7

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1950" First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter _ _
Fourth quarter
1951" First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter 1
Fourth quarter

219.3
230.6
245. 8
260. 1
269.4
274. 3
»278. 1
282.0

142. 2
148. 6
157. 3
165.2
172. 1
177.4
180.4
182. 5

' Estimates based on incomplete data: by Council of Economic Advisers.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.




41. 4
41. 9
45.6
47. 2
48. 8
48. 1
49. 1
50. 0

5.2
5.3
5-5
5.6
5.6
5.7
5. 8
5.8

30. 5
34.8
37.4
42. 2
42. 9
43. 0
1
42. 8
43. 7

Source: Department of Commerce (except us noted).

21

CORPORATE PROFITS
Although corporate profits before taxes reached an all-time high in 1951, they were much lower in the second half
of the year than in the first half.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

60

60

[Billions of dollars]

Period

1939 ..
1944 ..
1946
1947
1948
1949.
1950-.
1951 1 -.

.

Corporate
profits
before taxes
6.5
24. 3
23. 5
30.5
33.8
28. 3
41. 4
44. 8

Corporate
tax
liability
1. 5
IS. 5
9. 6
11.9
13. 0
11.0
18. 6
26. 7

Corporate profits after taxes
Total
5. 0
10.8
13. 9
18. 5
20. 7
17.3
22. 8
18. 1

Dividend
payments
3.8
4.7
5.8
6. 6
7.2
7.6
9. 2
9.5

Undistributed
profits
1.2
6. 1
8. 1
12. 0
13.5
9.8
13. 6
8.6

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1950: First quarter
Second quarter . _
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1951: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter '
Fourth quarter *

22

31.9
37. 5
45. 7
50.3
51. 8
45. 4
40.0
42. 0

14.4
16. 9
20. 5
22.5
31. 1
27.0
23.8
25. 0

17.5
20.6
25. 2
27.8
20.7
18.4
16. 2
17.0

7.8
8.4
9.4
11. 1
8.8
9.6
9. 6
10. 1

9.7
12.2
15.8
16.7
11.9
8.8
6. 6
6.9

1
Estimates based on incomplete data; by Council of Economic Advisers.
NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment. See p. 21 for profits before taxes and inventory valuation adjustment.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).




PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income declined somewhat in November. Wages and salaries continued to rise, particularly in the Government sector, but farm income dropped over $1 billion (annual rate) as a result of a lower physical volume of marketings.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

300

300

1949

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

Total personal income

Period
1939
1944
1947
1948
1949
1950

-

.

__

_ _ _ _ _
__
- _- _ - - __

1950' June
October
November
December
1951: January
February. _ __ _
March
April
May

June

July_

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS ::

August
September
October. 2
November

72.6
165. 9
191.0
209.5
205. 1
224.7
219.0
234. 1
236. 4
244. 4
243.6
243. 3
245. 5
249.0
249. 8
251.0
252. 4
253.7
253. 6
257. 5
256. 7

[Billions of dollars]
Proprietors' income
Labor income
(salaries,
Dividends
Business,
wages, and
professional, and personal
Farm
other labor
interest
and rental
income)
income
4.5
45.7
10.2
9. 2
23. 7
11. 8
116. 2
10.6
15.6
122.3
26.8
14.5
134.9
17.7
29.6
16.0
134.2
13.0
28. 4
17. 1
146. 4
13.7
30.3
19. 3
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
.12.3
144. 6
30. 2
18. 4
156. 0
15. 1
31.2
19.7
157.9
16. 0
31. 2
19. 5
16. 3
31. 8
159. 6
25.0
33.0
161. 7
17.5
18.8
32. 3
15. 9
19.2
163. 8
166. 0
31.9
15. 8
19. 7
16.4
31.7
168. 6
20. 2
168. 9
16. 2
31. 8
20.2
16. 2
170.2
31. 8
20. 0
17. 3
170. 9
31. 9
19.7
17. 6
171. 2
20. 1
32. 1
31. 5
16.8
172. 1
20. 7
18. 2
32.3
173. 3
20.8
32. 1
174. 3
17. 0
20. 7

Transfer
payments

3.0
3.6
11.8
11.3
12.4
1
15. 1
13. 5
12. 1
11.8
11.7
12.6
12. 1
12. 1
12. 1
12.7
12. 8
12. 6
12. 7
12. 5
12.9
12. 6

i Includes $2.7 billion National Service Life Insurance dividend, most of which was paid In the first half of the year.
3 Preliminary estimates. Data became available after chart was prepared.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.




23

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION

EXPENDITURES

Consumption expenditures rose by $2.5 billion between the third and fourth quarters of last year, with the gains
being almost entirely in nondurable goods and services.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

250

250

/ PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED).

"COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.

[Billions of dollars]
Personal consumption expenditures
Period

Nondurable
goods

Total

1939
1944
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951 »

67. 5
111.6
146. 9
165. 6
177.9
180. 2
193. 6
204. 4

35.3
67. 1
85.8
95. 1
100. 9
98.7
102. 3
110. 6

Durable
goods
6.7
7. 1
16.6
21. 4
22. 9
23.9
29. 2
27. 1

Services

25.5
37.4
44. 5
49. 1
54. 1
57. 6
62. 1
66. 7

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1950: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1951: First quarter _
Second quarter
Third quarter

Fourth quarter

__
__
1

1
Estimates based on incomplete data; by Council of Economic Advisers.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).

24




184. 7
188. 7
202. 5
198.4
208.2
201. 7
202. 5
205. 0

98.4
100.4
105. 5
104. 9
111. 5
109.5
110. 0
111. 5

26.3
26.6
34. 3
29.4
31.5
25.9
25.3
25. 5

60. 1
61.6
62.7
64. 0
65.2
66.2
67.2
68.0

CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING
Saving confirmed at the exceptionally high rate of about 10 percent of disposable income in the fourth quarter of 1951.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250

1949

-I/ PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES.
& PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[EXCEPT AS NOTED)

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Disposable
personal
income *

Period

1939
1941
1942
1944
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951

70.2
92.0
116.7
147.0
158. 9
169. 5
188. 4
186.4
204.3
222. 8

2

_ .
1950 : First quarter..
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter .
-~ _
1951 First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter 2
Fourth auarter _

__ _

.„_
- _ _ _

__

197.3
197.5
207. 1
215.2
216. 8
221. 8
224. 7
228. 0

Less: Personal
consumption
expenditures

Equals: Personal net
saving

Billions of dollars
67. 5
2.7
82.3
9.8
91.2
25. 6
35.4
111.6
• 12. 0
146.9
165.6
3.9
177.9
10.5
180. 2
6.3
193.6
10.7
204, 4
18. 5
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
184.7
188. 7
202.5
198.4
208. 2
201. 7
202.5
205. 0

12.5
8.9
4.6
16.8
8.5
20.1
22. 2
23. 0

Net saving as
percent of disposable income
3.8
10.7
21. 9
24. 1
7.6
2.3
5.6
3.4
5.2
8.3
6. 3
4.5
2.2
7.8
3.9
9.1
9.9
10. 1

' Income less taxes.
2 Estimates based on incomplete data; by Council of Economic Advisers.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals becausejof rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).




25

PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE INCOME
Per capita disposable income in constant prices was unchanged from the third to the fourth quarter of 1951.
DOLLARS

DOLLARS

1,600

1,600
ANNUAL AVERAGES

ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1,200

1,200

CURRENT DOLLARS

1940

1941

1942

1943

1944

1945

1946

1947

1943

1949

I95O

1951 1949

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED).

Total disposable personal Per capita disposable perincome (billions of dollars) ' sonal income (dollars)1

Period

Current
prices

1939
1941 . . . . . . . .
1942
1944
.
1946.
_
'
- _ 1947
- ...
1948
-- 1949_
..
- - - - - 1950 4
1951
- _ _ - _ - -

...

70.2
92. 0
116. 7
147.0
158. 9
169.5
188.4
186. 4
204.3
222. 8

1950
prices 2
124. 9
152. 6
172. 6
190. 4
184.3
179. 2
189.0
189. 6
204. 3
208. 8

Current
prices
536
690
866
1,062
1, 124
1,176
1,285
1,250
1,347
1,443

1950
prices a
954
1, 144
1,280
1,376
1, 303
1,243
1, 289
1,271
1, 347
1,353

Population
(thousands)3

130,
133,
134,
138,
141,
144,
146,
149,
151,
154,

880
377
831
390
398
129
621
149
689
353

150,
151,
152,
152,
153,
154,
154,
155,

847
390
068
774
396
Oil
724
469

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1950: First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter Fourth quarter1951: First quarter
Second quarter _
Third quarter- 4_.
_
Fourth quarter
_ __

_
.
_
._

197. S
197.5
207. 1
215. 2
216. 8
221. 8
224.7
228.0

202. 4
200.5
204. 2
209. 7
203. 6
207. 9
211.2
212. 1

1,308
1,305
1, 362
1,409
1, 413
1, 440
1, 452
1, 467

1,342
1, 324
1, 343
1,373
1, 327
1, 350
1, 365
1,364

1
Income less taxes.
3
Dollar estimates in current prices divided by the price index of personal consumption expenditures. This price index was based on the Department of Commerce data, shifted from 1939 base.
' Provisional intercensal estimates of the population of the United States including Armed Forces overseas, taking into account the final 1950 Census total population count. Annual data as of July l; quarterly data centered in the middle of the period, interpolated from monthly figures.
* Estimates based on incomplete data; by Council of Economic Advisers.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).

26



FARM INCOME
Farm income in November dropped more than seasonally, primarily because of a lower volume of marketings of meat
animals. Income in current prices was 9 percent above a year ago; in real terms, it was only 1K percent higher.

LLIONS OFlDOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4

1950 DOLLARS **

CURRENT

*

DOLLARS

NCLUOES CASH fARM INCOME FROM MARKETING AND GOVERNMENT PAYMENTS.
FARM INCOME IN CURRENT D O L L A R S DIVIDED BY PRICES PASD BY F A R M E R S , SNTEREST, T A X E S , AND WAGE R A T E S , I 9 6 0 = 1 0 0 ,
COUNCIL

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF A G R I C U L T U R E ,

Period
1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average
1950 monthly average.
June
October
ISTnvpmh^r

- -

December
1951: January
February
March
April
May
June
July
• '..
August
._
September
4
October 4
November

__.

_

_

_

_

-

-

__
- - -

, _

„
_ _ _ _

- .

-___
._ _

_

OF ECONOMIC ADv _ ,-RS

Farm income Prices paid by Farm income
farmers (incl.
(millions of
(millions of
interest, taxes,
current
and wage rates) 1950 dollars) 3
2
dollars) *
1950= 100
724
1 508
48
981
52
1, 887
71
1 764
2 484
2 637
81
2 136
2, 542
2 567
101
2 407
2 359
98
2, 349
100
2 349
1 859
1, 859
100
3, 514
3 584
102
3, 182
3 277
103
2, 692
2, 588
104
2 539
107
2, 373
1,899
1,758
108
2 071
1, 883
110
1, 925
111
2 137
1, 940
2 153
111
2 169
111
1, 954
2,389
2 652
111
2, 695
2, 992
111
3 395
111
3, 059
3, 923
4 355
111
3. 585
3,230
111

1

Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments.
3 Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1950 = 100.
! Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, taxes, and wage rates,'1950=100,
* Preliminary estimates.
Source: Department.o^Agrieulture.




27

IJ

tfa

I- JLal
I".

7 an ^j**7 •& « Jhmd o£fl g

BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS
Bank loans expanded $1.6 billion during November and December, and holdings of Government and other securities
rose by an approximately equal amount.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
150

1939

1945
1948
1949
END OF YEAR

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
150

1950

J F M A M J J A S O N D
I960
END OF MONTH
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
All commercial banks
End of period

1939
19451947_
1948
1949
1950

-

-.

June
1951 2
1950: November
December
1951: January
February
March
April.
May
June
July,August
September October 2
November 2
December _

Investments

Total
loans and
investments

Bank loans

40. 7
124. 0
116.3
114.3
120. 2
126.7
121. 8
133.8
125. 4
126. 7
125. 1
125. 0
125.7
125. 4
125. 1
126. 0
126. 1
127. 0
128. 6
130. 5
131. 9
133. 8

17. 2
26. 1
38. 1
42. 5
43.0
52. 2
44. 8
58. 4
51. 5
52.2
52.7
53. 5
54.4
54. 4
54. 5
54.8
54. 6
55. 2
56. 0
56. 8
57.3
58. 4

Total

23.4
97. 9
78.2
71.8
77.2
74.4
77. 0
75.4
73.9
74. 4
72.3
71.5
71.3
71.0
70. 6
71.2
71.5
71. 9
72. 6
73. 7
74.6
• 75.4

U.S.
Government
securities
16.3
90.6
69. 2
62.6
67.0
62. 0
65.8
62. 2
61.7
62.0
60. 0
59. 1
58.8
58. 5
58. 1
58. 5
58.7
59. 1
59. 7
60. 9
61. 6
62.2

Other
securities
7. 1
7.3
9. 0
9.2
10.2
12.4
11. 2
13. 2
12. 1
12.4
12.4
12.4
12. 6
12. 6
12. 5
12.7
12.8
12.7
12.9
12. 9
13.0
13. 2

Weekly
reporting
member
banks—
Business
loans *
4.4
7.3
14. 6
15.6
13.9
17. 8
13. 6
21.6
17. 1
17. 8
18. 1
18. 7
19. 2
19. 1
19. 0
19. 2
19.0
19. 5
20. 1
20. 6
20. 9
21.6

2 Estimates based on incomplete data; December by Council of Economic Advisers.
i Commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans.
Not!.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System (exceptlasjioted).

28



CONSUMER CREDIT
Total consumer credit outstanding expanded around $800 million during November and December, to reach a level
about $300 million above December 1950. The growth was largely accounted for by charge accounts, which rose
seasonally.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25

BILLIONS

OF DOLLARS

25

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

I960
END

OF MONTH

UQftHO or GOVERNORS Qf THE! F£OER&t_

[Millions of dollars]
Total
consumer
credit
outstanding

End of period

1939 - 1943
1946
1948 —
1949
1950 _ June
1951 2
- . _.
1950: November
December
1951: January
February
March
April
May
iJ-COJ

-

JuneJuly. .

August
September
October 2 _ 2.
November
December 2

-

- .

_

_. __

_ __'
__ .
-

-

... .

__ .

7,031
4,600
8,677
14, 366
16, 809
20; 097
17, 651
20, 400
19,405
20, 097
19, 937
19, 533
19, 379
19, 126
19, 207
19, 256
19, 132
19, 262
19, 362
19, 586
19, 996
20, 400

Instalment credit
Total
4,424
2,001
4,000
8, 600
10, 890
13, 459
12, 105
13, 300
13, 306
13, 459
13, 252
13, 073
12, 976
12, 904
12, 920
12, 955
12. 903
13, 045
13, 167
13, 199
13, 259
13, 300

Automobile
sale credit

Other sale
credit and
loans

1,267
175
544
1, 961
3, 144
4, 126
3,790
4,000
4,175
4, 126
4.056
3; 990
3,946
3,934
3,980
4, 041
4,061
4, 138
4, 175
4, 134
4, 100
4,000

3, 157
1,826
3,456
6,639
7,746
9,333
8, 315
9,300
9, 131
9,333
9, 196
9,083
9, 030
8,970
8,940
8, 914
8. 842
M07
8, 992
9,065
9,059
9, 300

Charge
accounts
1,544
1,498
3, 054
3,854
3, 909
4,239
3,392
4, 500
3, 739 •
4,239
4, 248
4,010
3,938
3, 744
3,793
3, 804
3,743
3, 724
3, 696
3, 868
4, 206
4, 500

Other
consumer
credit *
1,063
1,101
1,623
1, 912
2,010
2,399
2,154
2,600
2,360
2,399
2,437
2,450
2,465
2,478
2,494
2, 497
2,486
2,493
2, 499
2,519
2,531
2, 600

' Includes loans by pawnbrokers, service credit, and single-payment loans under $3,000 made by commercial banks. The single-payment loan item was
revised in November to exclude loans over SS.mn. See federal Reserve Bulletin for November 1950, pages 1465-6.
2 Estimates based on incomplete data; December by Council of Economic Advisers.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (except as noted).




29

BOND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES
The yield on Treasury bills climbed substantially during December, while the rate on prime commercial paper rose
moderately. Yields on both Government and corporate bonds showed slight increases.
PERCENT PER A N N U M

PERCENT PER ANNUM

3.5

3.5

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N O

1946

1947

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

[Percent per annum]
U. S. Government security
yields
Taxable
3-month
bonds,
Treasurv
15 years
bills ' "
and over

Period

Average:
1939
..
1945 .. .
1946
. .
1947
1948— ...
1949
1950 .
June. - _ _
1951
1950: November. .
December
1951: January
February__ _
March
April
_

_

_

__
.

_ ..

._
_

__

May

June
July- • August
September,
October
November
December
1
1

30

Kal.n on mnv issuos within period,
Homltt in this classification were first issued in March 1941.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




0. 023
.375
. 375
. 594
1.040
1. 102
1.218
1. 174
1. 552
1. 364
1.367
1. 387
1.391
1.422
1. 520
1. 578
1.499
1. 593
1. 644
1.646
1.608
1. 608
1.731

(2)

Corporate
Aaa bonds
(Moody's)

Prime
commercial
paper,
4-6 months

2. 37
2. 19
2.25
2. 44
2.31
2. 32
2.33
2.57

3. 01
2. 62
2. 53
2. 61
2. 82
2.66
2. 62
2. 62
2. 86

0. 59
.75
.81
1. 03
1. 44
I. 48
1. 45
1.31
2. 17

2.38
2.39
2.39
2.40
2. 47
2.56
2.63
2.65
2.63
2. 57
2.65
2.61
2. 66
2. 70

2. 67
2. 67
2.66
2. 66
2.78
2. 87
2. 88
2. 94
2.94
2. 88
2. 84
2.89
2. 96
3.01

1. 69
1. 72
1.86
1. 96
2.06
2. 13
2. 17
2.31
2. 31
2. 26
2. 19
2. 21
2. 25
2. 31

'

MONEY SUPPLY
Total deposits and currency, less Government deposits, jumped $4.1 billion during November and December, The
factor chiefly responsible for the rise was the expansion of bank loans and investments.
BILLIONS

LLIONS OF DOLLARS

OF D O L L A R S

200

200

TOTAL

I940

41

42

43

44

45

45

47

48

49

50

J

F

M

END OF Y E A R

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

DEPOSITS ADJUSTED AND CURRENCY
SPRIVATELY-HELD MONEY SUPPLY)

D

J

F

M

I949

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

I950

N

O

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

I95I

END OF MONTH
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL 'RESERVE SYSTEM.

[Billions of dollars]
Total deposits and
currency

End of period

1939
1945
1946 _ _ 1948
1949
1950

- -_

June

1951 5 -_- --.

1950: November.
December
1951: January
February
March
April _

•__
..

Mav

June
July... .
August..
September
October-- 5
November 5
December

-

U. S. Government
deposits '

Deposits adjusted and currency
(privately-held money supply)2
Currency
Adjusted
Time
Total
demand
outside
deposits *
banks
deposits a

64.7
176. 4
167.5
172. 7
173. 9
180.6
174.7
189. 5

1.5
25. 6
3.5
3. 6
4. 1
3. 7
4. 8
3. 8

63.3
150.8
164.0
169. 1
169. 8
176.9
170.0
185. 7

6. 4
26.5
26.7
26. 1
25.4
25.4
25.2
26. 5

29. 8
75.9
83.3
85.5
85.8
92. 3
85.0
98. 2

27. 1
48. 5
54.0
57.5
58. 6
59.2
59. 7
61.0

177.4
180.6
178.8
178.9
179. 9
179.8
179. 1
181. 3
180.8
181. 6
183. 8
185.8
187. 1
189. 5

3.5
3.7
3. 6
4.7
7.4
6.5
5.4
6. 6
5.0
4. 6
5. 9
4. 2
4. 4
3. 8

173.9
176.9
175.2
174.2
172. 5
173.3
173.7
174.7
175.8
177. 0
177.9
181. 6
182. 7
185. 7

24.9
25.4
24. 6
24. 6
24. 4
24. 6
24. 9
25.8
25. 1
25.3
25. 4
25.7
25.8
26. 5

90.3
92.3
91.6
90. 6
89.0
89.5
89.5
89.0
90. 7
91. 4
92. 0
95. 0
96.3
98.2

58.7
59.2
59.0
59.0
59. 1
59.2
59.3
59.9
60. 1
60. 4
60. 5
60. 9
60. 6
61. 0

1
includes U. 8. Government deposits at Federal Reserve banks, commercial and savings banks, and U. S. Treasurer's time deposits, open
account.
2
Includes deposits and currency held by State and local governments.
3
Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection,
4 Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savines hnnks. qnd Postal Savins System, but excludes interbank deposits.
s Estimates based on incomplete data; December by Council of Economic Advisers.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System (except as noted).




31

FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM
AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC
The rise in cash payments in the fourth quarter resulted from the continuing advance in national security expenditures.
Receipts declined in response to the seasonal drop in individual income tax collections (apart from withheld taxes).
The excess of cash payments was far larger than in any quarter since 1945.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

zoi

20

^CASH RECEIPTS

CASH PAYMENTS

A

I960

EXCESS

OF CASH RECEIPTS

Hi
EXCESS OF CASH

tT

PAYMENTS

1949

1948.

1950

"

* P REU»,».RY ESTIMATES.

CALENDAR YEARS
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE': BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT.

[Millions of dollars]
Federal cash
receipts from
the public

Calendar year
Calendar year total:
1946._—•
—
„.
1947.
—
1948
--1949
1950
1951 '
Quarterly total, not adjusted for seasonal variation:
1949: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1950: First quarter.
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
1951: First quarter..-.
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter '
' Preliminary estimates based on incomplete data.
Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget.

32

-

-

Federal cash
payments to
the public

41,441
44, 282
44, 922
41, 346
42, 419
59,278

41, 399
38, 616
36, 897
42, 642
41, 969
58, 064

+42
+ 5,666
+8, 027
-1,295
+450
+ 1,214

13,122
8, 814
10, 143
9,267
12,235
9,303
10, 494
10, 387
18,051
I'l, '1(>2
18,093
12, 772

9,964
11, 389
10, 528
10, 762
10, 760
11, 105
9, 351
10, 754
11, 179
14, 521
If), 270
17, 0<M

+ 3, 159
-2, 574
-386
-1,495
+ 1,475
-1,803

+ 1,143
-367
+ 6,874
-59
-1,277
-4, 322

NOTE.—Detail will jiol. necessarily :ul<l 1.0 tolals because of rounding.

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U. S. Government Printing Olllcc, WIIH!
Price 20 cents per copy ; $2.00 per year ; $2.00 foreign




Excess of receipts (+) or
payments (—)

25, D. C.