Full text of Economic Indicators : January 1950

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Economic Indicators
JANUARY 1950
Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report




by the Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1950

JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Coog.)
JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, Chairman
EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Vice Chairman
FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania

WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas

JOHN J. SPARKMAN, Alabama

WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio

PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois

FRANK BUCHANAN, Pennsylvania

ROBERT A, TAFT, Ohio

JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan

RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont

ROBERT F. RICH.. Pennsylvania

ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah

CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts

THEODOBE J. KEEPS, Staff Director
GROVES W. ENSLBY, Associate Staff

Director

JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk

[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sx CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [S. J. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Committee on the Economic
Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one
copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the
House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint
Committee on the Economic Report; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository
libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.

To the Members of Congress:

From the time the Joint Committee on the Economic Report was established its members realized that one of its
basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of current economic trends and developments.
Fortunately, the joint committee found that Economic Indicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiled monthly
by the Council of Economic Advisers, admirably filled this need. While this material was prepared originally for the
use of the President, the Council, and other officials in the executive offices, the Council made it available to the joint
committee.
Other Members of Congress also expressed an interest in being able to obtain a quick picture of current economic
fact$ without having to go through voluminous and specialized documents. In addition businessmen, farm leaders,
labor organizations, and representatives of the press and radio indicated their desire for this information.
Accordingly, the joint committee provided the Congress and the public with a limited number of copies of
Economic Indicators as a committee print pending final action on authorizing the publication on a more permanent basis.
As is indicated above such legislation has now been passed and the committee will issue the report on a regular monthly
basis.
Comments or suggestions with respect to possible improvements in this presentation will always be welcome.




v.

^

«.s.s;<

Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report.

Letter o£ Transmittal
Hon. JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Chairman,
Joint Committee on the Economic Report,
United States Congress, Washington, D. C.
DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the
Joint Committee on the Economic Report in making Economic Indicators available to the
Congress as a whole and to the general public, in accordance with Public Law 120, Eightyfirst Congress.
In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has found
it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts showing
current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a better position
to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the improvement
and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services.
In this undertaking the Council has the full cooperation of the several agencies of the
Federal Government that collect statistical material. In many cases these agencies supply
advance estimates for use in Economic Indicators. While the charts are drawn through the
courtesy of the Graphics Unit in the Office of the Secretary of Commerce, the Council takes
complete responsibility for the graphic presentation.
This material has proven useful to the President, the Council, the executive departments, and the Congress. Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and
consumer organizations with whom we regularly consult.
We believe that the Congress is performing a service of real value by making this
material available.
Sincerely yours,




/

I

Acting Chairman.

/

111

Contents
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
The Nation's Economic Budget

Page

1

PRICES
Consumers' Prices
Wholesale Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
Stock Prices

2
3
4
5

EMPLOYMENT
Labor Force
Nonagricultural Employment—Selected Industries
Average Weekly Hours—Selected Industries
Work Stoppages

6
7
8
9

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production
Weekly Production—Selected Indicators
Production of Selected Durable Manufactures
Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures
New Construction
New Housing Starts
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
New Corporate Security Issues
Inventories and Sales
Merchandise Exports and Imports

10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

PURCHASING POWER
National Income
Corporate Profits
Personal Income
Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving
Per Capita Income
1
Average Hourly Earnings—Selected Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries
Farm Income
,
Personal Consumption Expenditures
,
Consumer Credit

20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29

MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
Bank Loans and Investments
Money Supply
Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public

IV




30
31
32

THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
The economic decline leveled off in 4th quarter 1949, the total output of goods and services being less
than $1 billion (annual rate) below 3rd quarter, according to preliminary estimates. Allowing for the effects
of industrial disputes, the year's end found the economy moving upward.
1949,4th Quarter
TOTAL

EXCESS OF
EXPENDITURES (-), RECEIPTS (+}

(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)"

(Gross National Product)

Transfer payments^.

CONSUMERS

-

0

+
CONSUMER
SAVING

:;j;j!j;:;jijj:|;|g
I EXPENDITURES!
BUSINESS

EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
EXCESS OF
RECEIPTS

GOVERNMENT

{ Federal, state and local)
57.8

CASH
DEFICIT
Transfer payments

1949,
TOTAL

3^

(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

Quarter

(Gross National Product)

CONSUMERS

Transfer payments^
;!;i;!;!;i;l3

GONSUMER
SAVING

BUSINESS

EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT

EXCESS OF
RECEIPTS

GOVERNMENT

(Federal, state and local)
5T.3

CASH
DEFICIT
Transfer payments"''

ANNUAL RATES,

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED.

SOURCE: SEE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JANUARY 1950, APPENDIX A.




PRICES
CONSUMERS' PRICES
Overall, consumers' prices were virtually unchanged in November. Price decreases in apparel and
miscellaneous did not quite offset increases in other components. Most changes were small except
for the increase in fuel, electricity, and refrigeration.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF .935-39 AVERAGE

200

120

1940

1942

1941

1943

1944

1945

1946

1949

1947

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

11935-39=100]
Period

All items

1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average
1941 monthly average

1 942 mnnth^y fl.vfiragf»

1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average.
1947 monthly average _
1948 monthly average _
1948: November 15.
December 15
1949: January 15
March 15
April 15
May 15
June 15
July 15
-_
August 15
September 15_
October 15
November 15

.

-- --__
.

.- ._
_.

.

99.4
100. 2
105. 2
116. 5
12a 6
125. 5
12a 4
139.3
159. 2

Food
95.2

96.6
105. 5

123. 9
138.0
136. 1
139. 1

171.2
172. 2
171.4
170. 9
169. 0
169 5
169. 7

159. 6
193. 8
210. 2
207. 5
205.0
2048
199. 7
201.6
202.8
202.4

168.8

204. 3
201.7
202.6
204. 2
200. 6
200. 8

169. 2
169. 6
168. 5
169. 6
168. 5
168. 6

NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities.
Source: Department of Labor.




Apparel
100. 5
101. 7
106.3
124.2
129.7

138. 8
145. 9

160.2
185.8
198. 0

201.4
200.4
196. 5
195. 1
193. 9
192.5
191.3
199. 3
188.5
187.4
187. 2
186. 8
186. 3

Rent
104.3
104.6

106.2

ioa 5

108.0
108.2
108. 3
108.6
111. 2
117.4

na 8

119.5
119.7
119. 9
120. 1
120.3

120. 4
120. 6
120. 7
120.8
121. 2
121. 5
122.0

Fuel, electricity, and
refrigeration

House furnishings

99.0
99.7
102.2
105.4
107.7
109.8
110.3
112.4
121. 1
133.9
137.9
137.8
138. 2
138. 8
13& 9
137.4

101.3
100. 5
107.3
122. 2
125.6
136.4
145. 8
159.2
1844
195.8
198.7
198.6
196.5
195. 6
193.8
191. 9
189.5
187.3
186. 8
184.8
185. 6

135.4

135.6

135. 6

135.8
137.0
138.4

139.1

185. 2
185.4

Miscellaneous

100.7
101. 1
1040
110.9
115.8
121.3
124 1
12a8
139.9
149.9
153.9
1540
154 1
154 1
1544
154.6

154.5
154.2
1543
154.8
155.2
155. 2
1549

WHOLESALE PRICES
Wholesale prices were somewhat lower in December There was a sharp drop in wholesale food
prices and a small drop in farm prices Industrial prices rose slightly
PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE

PiRCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE

220

220

200

160

160

140

100

1942
SOURCE:

1943

1944

1945

1946

1948

DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

[1926=100]

All commodities

Period
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1946 monthly average _.
June
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average *__
...
1948: December, _ _ _ „
!949" January
February
March
A pril
May
June
Julv
August.
_ September
October
November 1_ _ _ _ _ _
December _ _
Week ended:
December 6
13
20
27

_ _ _ _
'

_ _ _

1950: January 3 22
10
1
Estimate basedlon incomplete data,
Source: Department of Labor.



Farm products

Foods

Other than
farm products and foods

87. 3
98.8
121. 1
112.9
152. 1
165. 1
154. 9
162. 4
160. 6
158. 1
158. 4
156. 9
155. 7
154. 5
153. 5
152. 9
153. 6
152. 2
151. 6
151. 2

82. 4
105. 9
148.9
140. 1
181. 2
188. 3
165. 5
177.3
172. 5
168. 3
171. 5
170. 5
171. 2
168. 8
166. 2
162. 3
163. 1
159. 6
156. 8
155. 2

82. 7
99.6
130. 7
112.9
168. 7
179. 1
161. 4
170. 2
165. 8
161. 5
162. 9
162.9
163. 8
162.4
161. 3
160. 6
162. 0
159. 6
158.9
155. 7

89.0
95. 5
109. 5
105. 6
135. 2
151. 0
147. 3
153. 1
1 52. 9
151. 8
150.7
148.9
146. 8
145. 6
1 45. 0
145.0
145. 3
145.0
145.0
145.4

151. 0
151. 1
151. 1
151. 1

154. 0
154. 2
155. 0
155. 1

156. 6
156. 5
155. 6
155. 6

145. 1
145. 3
145. 4
145. 4

154. 5
153. 2
150. 5
155. 9
154. 6
151.2
Data became available after chart was prepared.

145. 1
145. 2

PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received by farmers fell about 1 percent from November to December, continuing a decline
without significant interruption since July 1948. This brought the parity ratio below 100.
PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE

350

350

PRICES RECEIVED
300

250

250
PRICES PAID
(INCL. INTEREST, TAXES}

200

150
PARITY RATIO*

100

50

1 I I I

M i l l

1939 40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

F

M A

M J

J

A

S

O

N

I
D

J

F

1947

I
M

1 I 1
A

M

J

J

M i l l
A S O N D

I
J

F

M

A

1948

M

J

J

I I
A

S 0

I I
N D

1949

* RATIO OF PRICES RECEIVED TO PRICES PAID, INTEREST, AND TAXES.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE




Period
1939 monthly average
..
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average _ - _ _ _ » - .
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average .«
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average
1948: December 151949: January 15
„
February 15
March 15
...
April 15 .. ,.
Mav 15
_
June 15
July 15
August 15
September 15„October 15- _ _- _ _ _ _ _ _
November 15
-_ . .
December 15

Prices paid by
Prices
(includ- Parity ratio 8
received l farmers
ing interest2
by farmers
and taxes)
95
124
159
192
195
202
233
278
287
251

124
132
150
162
169
172
193
231
249
244

77
94
106
119
116
117
121
120
115
103

268

246

109

268
258
261
260
256
252
249
245
249
243
239
236

248
245
246
246
245
245
244
243
242
240
239
240

108
105
106
106
104
103
102
101
103
101
100
98

1
August 1909-July 1914=100.
31910-14=100.
8
Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and taxes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.

STOCK PRICES
Stock prices of all groups rose in December with railroads scoring the largest advances. The
combined index reached the highest level since May 1946.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 AVERAGE

175

175
WEEKLY AVERAGE

150

125

125

1 1

1

1

1

1

193940 4! 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

SOURCE: STANDARD AND POOR'S CORPORATION.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

11935-39=100]
Combined
index l

Period
Weekly average:
1939
1942
1946
.
1948 2
1949
_
1949: January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
__
September
October
November
December
Week ended:
December 7

..

-_
_

94. 2
69.4
139. 9
124. 4
121. 3
121.0
117.2
118. 0
118.5
117. 7
112. 0
117. 8
121.9
123.8
127.3
129. 1
132. 6

Industrials

94. 8
71. 3
143.4
130.6
127. 5
127.3
122.7
123. 7
124. 2
123.4
117.0
123.4
128. 2
130.3
134.4
136. 5
140. 3

Railroads

74.7
66. 1
143.0
114.7
96.4
105. 9
99.6
97.4
97.1
95.8
88.4
90.6
94.6
95. 1
97. 6
96.2
101.0

Utilities

98.6
61.3
120.2
96.2
97. 5
94. 2
94.4
95.3
96. 1
95.3
93.0
95.4
98. 5
100.0
101.2
102. 6
104. 1

104. 2
100. 0
138. 9
131. 5
104. 3
101. 2
141. 1
133. 3
103. 5
99. 6
140. 1
132. 3
104. 3
103. 3
141. 2
133. 5
105.0
107.5
142. 7
135. 0
1950: January 4 2
_
1
Combined index prior to June 23, 1948. was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials,
20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads,
and 31
utilities.
2
Data became available after chart was prepared.
Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.
14
21
28

60386-—50




EMPLOYMENT
LABOR FORCE
Total civilian employment dropped 1 million in December as farm operations were curtailed
seasonally. The labor force also declined about 1 million leaving unemployment practically unchanged.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS

MILLIONS OF PERSONS

70

70
TOTAL
LABOR FORCE

UNEMPLOYMENT

60

50

30
I NONAGRICULTURAL

EMPLOYMENT ?

20

10

UNEMPLOYMENT—MAGNIFIED SCALE

rffiffreivffPffisffii^
1939

1944

1946

1947

1948

1948

MONTHLY AVERAGE
SOURCE : DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE-




[Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over]
Total labor
force, including
armed
forces

Period

1939 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1946 monthly average. __
1947 monthly average...
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average
1948: December
1949: January
_ _ __
February
March. _ _
April
May

J une
July
August
September
October
November
December
1

_

__.

55, 600
65, 890
60, 820
61, 608
62, 748
63, 571
62, 828
61, 546
61, 896
62, 305
62, 327
63, 452
64, 866
65, 278
65, 105
64, 222
64, 021
64, 363
63, 475

Civilian employment1
Total
45, 750
53, 960
55, 250
58, 027
59, 378
58, 710
59, 434
57, 414
57, 168
57, 647
57, 819
58, 694
59, 619
59, 720
59, 947
59,411
59, 001
59, 518
58, 556

In nonagricultural
industries
36, 140
45, 010
46, 930
49, 761
51, 405
50, 684
52, 059
50, 651
50, 174
50, 254
49, 999
49, 720
49, 924
50, 073
51,441
51, 254
51, 290
51, 640
51. 783

In agriculture
9,610
8,950
8,320
8,266
7,973
8,026
7,375
6,763
6, 993
7,393
7,820
8,974
9,696
9,647
8,507
8, 158
7,710
7,878
6,773

Armed
forces

370
11, 260
3,300
1,440
1,307
1,466
1,453
1, 468
1,508
1,491
1,492
1,469
1,468
1,463
1,468
1,459
1, 445
1,436
L430

Unemployment

9,480
670
2,270
2, 142
2,064
3, 395
1,941
2,664
3,221
3,167
3,016
3, 289
3,778
4,095
3,689
3,351
3,576
3,409
3,489

Includes part-time workers and those who had jobs but were not at work for such reasons as vacation,
illness, bad weather, temporary lay-off, and industrial disputes.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.

N<DNAGRICULTURAL EMPLO1f MENT

- SELECTED INDUSTRIES

In P<Jovember, seasonal factors accounted for the deer ease in employment in nondurable manufacturing and
con struction and the increase in trade. Following cess ation o1 the coal work stoppage, mining and
tran

sportation increased. Government registered the l<jrgest d rop in employment since 1945.
MILLI ONS OF WAGE
AND SSALARY WORKERS

MILL ONS OF WAGE
AND SALARY WORKERS

8.0

9.0

NONDURABLE

DURABLE MANUFACTURING

MANUFACTURING

1947^

8.5

JT

7.5

::

O-cJC. "T^-Za,r "" ""*>••»

r-a. „--"""""""

~~~*~^^^ ^~^

7.5

1948

B^^^

6.5

"^—^\^

^^^^
—\"
mn ~

6.0

7.0

0

jy^^^^Q^

7.0

8.0

"~

1

J

1
F

1
M

i
A

1
M

1
J

1
J

1

1

A

S

1
O

1
N

^

0 " " " " I I
J

D

3.0

F

1
M

1
M

1
J

1
J

1
A

1
S

1
O

I
N

^
O

10.5

TRADE

CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION

2.5

10.0
/
/
/ /

.948^^=^^

2.0

1
A

7*\

•MMH

—rt^^*^

~""*^^

^^

/

9.5
£

^

^

'«*—<f^/*/'

^^^^^'

1.5

1947

9.0

''

1948
1947

1.0

8.5

0 ~~~
J

1

1
F

1
M

1
A

I
M

1
J

1
J

1
A

1
S

1
O

1
N

0 ~~"
D

J

1

1
F

1
M

1
A

1
M

1
J

1
J

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

I
A

I
S

1
O

1
N

O

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of wage and salary workers
Manufacturing
Period
L 939 monthly average __
1943 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: October
November ._
December _ _
1949: January
February
March
April
May
June
_
July
_ _
August
3
September
October 3 3
November

Total

~

10,078
17, 381
14, 461
15, 247
15, 286
15, 514
15, 368
15, 174
14, 782
14, 649
14, 475
14, 177
13, 877
13, 884
13, 757
14, 114
14, 312
13, 903
13, 741

Durable
goods

(22)
(2)
()
8,373
8,315
8,393
8,352
8,258
8,044
7,923
7,819
7,656
7,441
7,392
7,255
7,302
7,416
7,006
7, 019

Contract
Nondur- construction
able goods

(22)
(2)
()
6,874
6,970
7, 121
7,016
6, 916
6,738
6,726
6,656
6,521
6,436
6,492
6, 502
6,812
6,896
6,897
6,722

1, 150
1,567
1,661
1,982
2, 165
2,334
2,287
2,200
2,016
1,926
1,947
2,036
2,137
2,205
2,277
2,340
2,341
2,310
2,245

Trade
6,705
7,322
8,815
9, 196
9,491
9,654
9,807
10, 273
9,388
9,292
9,310
9,478
9,342
9,336
9,220
9,213
9,409
9,503
9,579

Finance
and
service

4, 610
5,187
5,994
6,427
6,515
6,531
6, 503
6,481
6,454
6,447
6,469
6,525
6, 567
6,608
6,631
6,616
6,602
6,559
6,524

Government Transportation and
(Federal,
public
State, local)
utilities
3,987
6,049
5,607
5,454
5, 613
5,694
5,685
5,994
5,764
5,737
5,761
5,775
5,813
5,803
5,738
5,763
5,893
5,866
5,783

2,912
3,619
4,023
4, 122
4, 151
4, 188
4, 166
4, 158
4,054
4,024
3,975
3,991
4,021
4,031
4,007
3,992
3,959
3,873
3, 896

Mining

845
917
852
943
981
1,000
999
1,002
991
986
981
984
974
968
943
956
948
593
927

1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in n on agricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending
nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this
table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 6) which include
proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and
which
are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
2
Not available.
3
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.




AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
In November, the workweek in durable manufacturing industries was approximately % hour less and in
nondurables about j/2 hour less than in October.
' HOU RS PER WEEK

HOURS PEfl WEEK

DURABLE MANUFACTURING

NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING

42

42

—vXKAA/-V

40

40

N^^^^y^y^

\^v/\
38

36

36

34

34

I 1 M I

0

I I1 1 | M

1947

1 1 1 1 1M
1948

1 1

1 1 1 I 1 1 1 M
1949

1 1

1 1 M

1 1 1 1 1

M

0

^

1 1 1 M

1 1 11 I I

1 11 1 i 1 1 1 I M

1948

i ii i i1ii i li

1949

1950

RETAIL TRADE -GENERAL MERCHANDISE
42

40

40

36

1 1 1 M

1947

BUILDING CONSTRUCTION

*

M i l l

1950

42

38

r\/^

^

38

^~M] V~v

38

34

-~/\fl^-A71^/\
A/

- - - • ^1

0. M i l l 1 1 1 1 1
1947

i ii i iIii l ll

i ii i i 1 i i i ii

1948

1949

36

***>**'

34

oi

1 1 1 1 1

M i l l

1947

_j i i i i i i i i i
1948

i i i i l 1 1 | l | | t i i 1i 1 i i 1 i1
1949
1950

*
£>OURC£: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

i i l i1 1 l l 1 1I
1950

COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Hours per week, selected industries *]
Manufacturing
Period
1939 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1946 month! v average. _
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: October
„
November
December
1949: January
February
_
March
April
May
June
July .
August- _ 3
September
October3 3
November
1
2
3

Total

.«

For production and related workers.
Not available.
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.

8



37.7
44. 9
40.4
40.4
40. 1
40.0
39.8
40. 1
39. 5
39.4
39. 1
38.4
38.6
38. 8
38.8
39. 1
39. 6
39.7
39. 2

Durable
goods
(2)
(22)
()
40. 6
40. 5
40. 7
40.4
40.7
40. 1
39. 9
39. 5
39.0
39.0
39.2
38.8
39.3
39.7
39.8
39. 1

Retail trade,
Building
general
construction
Nondurable
merchandise
goods
(22)
(2)
()

40. 1
39.6
39. 1
39.2
39. 3
38. 7
38. 8
38.6
37. 6
38. 1
38. 5
38.7
38. 9
39.6
39. 6
39.2

(22)
()
(22)
()
37.3
37.3
36.4
37.8
37.0
36. 5
36. 1
36.4
37.2
37. 1
37. 1
37.2
36.4
36.9
(2)

(2)
(22)
()

(2)

36.3
36.6
36.0
35.8
37.5
36. 5
36.3
36. 1
36.6
36.3
36.8
37.2
37.2
36. 6
36. 1

WORK STOPPAGES
With the ending of the coal and steel stoppages, man-days of idleness dropped sharply in November and
December from the high level in October
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE

MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE

1 5

15

—

1

1939 1940 1941

M

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

1939
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947 .
1948 1
1949
1948: November
December
1949: Januarv l
February
*
March l
April >
May *
June 1
July *
August *_
September *
October *• 1
November1
December
1

Workers involved in
stoppages

Beginning
Monthly
Percent of
in
average
estimated
period
(thousands) working time (thousands)
1,484
1,921
349
1,125
727
3,169
9,667
2,883
2,842
4,417
1,910
713
725
675
3,500
1,900
3, 450
4,500
2,400
2,100
6, 550
19, 000
7,500
1,200

Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.



J

A

S 0

N D

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Man-days idle during
period
Period

J

1949

1947

0.28
.32
.05
. 15
.09
.47
1.43
.41
.37
.60
.26
.09
. 10
.10
.46
.27
.49
. 61
.36
.27
.91
2.70
1.00
. 15

1, 171
2,363
840
1,981
2,116
3,467
4, 600
2, 170
1,960
3, 100
111
41
77
77
500
160
235
575
110
140
475
600
70
40

In effect
during
month
(thousands)

189
93
100
105
530
210
310
675
250
240
565
1,000
875
400

Number of stoppages
Beginning
in
period
2,613
4,288
2,968
3,752
4,956
4,750
4,985
3,693
3,419
3, 600
216
144
275
240
290
365
455
385
350
380
290
250
200
120

In effect
during
month

388
283
385
370
440
535
680
635
600
625
525
425
360
225

5

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Following resumption of activities at steel mills and coal mines, industrial production increased
about 7>]/z percent in November. Preliminary data indicate a further increase of 3 percent in
December, with a rise in durable goods output more than offsetting drops in nondurables and minerals.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
Points in Tola) Inijei

250 H

250

200

150

150

50

OVERAGE

AVERAGE

1948

1947

1949

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEJERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Points in total index,
1935-39 average for total =100

Indexes, 1935-39=100
Period

1935—39 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 Tnrmt.hly avfiragft

1 946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1 948 monthly average
1949 monthly average *
1948: December
1949: January
February
March.
A pril
Mav .
June
July.
August _
September
October
November *_
Dftr.ftmbp.r 1
1

10



Manufactures
Total
industrial
Nondura- Minerals
production Total Durable
goods ble goods
100
239
203
170
187
192
175
192
191
189
184
179
174
169
161
170
174
166
172
177

100
258
214
177
194
198
183
199
198
196
193
184
179
176
168
177
184
176
178
186

100
360
274
192
220
225
201
231
227
225
223
212
201
194
185
193
199
175
180
200

Preliminary estimate.
Source; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

100
176
166
165
172
177
168
173
175
173
168
162
161
161
154
165
172
176
176
173

100
132
137
134
149
155
134
156
149
149
136
148
145
133
123
129
119
112
138
130

Manufactures
Durable
goods
38
136
104
73
83
85
76
87
86
85
84
81
76
74
70
73
75
66
68
76

Nondura- Minerals
ble goods
47
83
78
77
81
83
79
81
82
81
79
76
75
75
72
77
81
83
82
81

15
20
21
21
23
24
21
24
23
23
21
23
22
20
19
20
18
17
21
20

WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORS
Steel ingot output in December was scheduled at 93 percent of capacity, the highest rate since last
May. Electric power continued at high levels. Coal production decreased as coal miners returned to
a reduced workweek . With progress made in model changeovers, the number of cars and trucks
being assembled increased.
MILLIONS OF TONS

BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS

ELECTRIC POWER

i
J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

i
S

O

N

D

THOUSANDS
160

SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS.

St eel

Period

Weekly average :
1947
1948
1949

Thousands of
net tons

:___

_

Week ended:
1948: December 4
11
18 _
251949: January
1__ ___ _
1949: December 3
10
17—
24__
31_2
1950: January
7

__

Cars and
trucks
(number)

93.0
94. 1
81. 0

4, 821
5,300
5, 500

2,058
1, 948
1,206

90, 860
100, 670
120, 800

804
802
802
597
754

100 1
100 0
100 0
88. 6
97. 3

5 646
5 705
5 790
5, 508
5, 562

1, 969
2, 042
1, 932
1, 956
1, 770

119,
117,
117,
89,
79,

1, 617
1, 690
1, 735
1, 742
1,716
1, 772

87 7
91 7
94. 1
94. 5
93. 1
96 1

5 743
5 881
5 997
5, 994
5, 493
5 695

1 542
1, 542
1, 453
1, 507
1, 251
937

68, 385
46, 667
79, 692
110, 594
106, 744
112, 346

1, 628
1,695
1,493
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,

__ __

Percent of
capacity

Electric power, Bituminous
coal
by utilities
(thousands of
(millions of
kilowatt-hours) short tons) 1

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

037
897
045
686
377

1
2

Daily average for week.
Data became available after chart was prepared.
Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Automotive Reports.




11

PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE
MANUFACTURES
Iron and steel production made substantial recovery in November; weekly data for December indicate
further gains. Lumber output also increased in November. Machinery, chiefly producers1 equipment,
and nonferrous metals dropped below their October rates.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

LUMBER AND PRODUCTS
250

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

200

200

I

I

I

•

100 I t I I I I I 1 I 1 I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I M I I \ \ I I I I I I I I M I I I I I m I
40 42 44- 46 48
1947
1948
1949

100 L I i i i i i i i
40 42 44 46 48

NONFERROUS METALS AND PRODUCTS

MACHINERY
350

MONTHLY AVERAGE

1949

1948

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

250

250

200

200

150

150

I 00

100

40 42
SOURCE:

44 46 48

1947

1948

BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE

1949

40 42

44 46

48
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S

SYSTEM

[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Iron and
steel

Period
1935—39 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthlv average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average..
1948 monthly average

„

1948: October
November
December _ .
1949: January
February
M arch
April
May
June
July
August
September
October 1
November
1

_
_

.

._

12

Machinery

Nonferrous
metals and
products

100
208
183
150
195
208

100
129
109
131
143
145

100
443
343
240
276
277

100
267
204
157
187
193

221
224
223

147
145
143

277
276
277

192
187
184

228
232
233
219
204
177
156
178
179
103
142

129
123
129
126
126
123
115
126
133
133
141

268
262
252
240
232
225
217
215
224
226
218

183
185

Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




Lumber and
products

lf$7
145
133
127
141
157
164
161

PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE
MANUFACTURES
Production of textiles and chemicals increased again in November. Petroleum and coal products
recovered its October drop. Manufactured food products declined somewhat.
PERCE NT OF 1935-39 A V E R A G E

PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE

TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS

PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS

300

300

200

100

0

y—^
! ( [ 1 | [ | | |
40 42 44 46 48

~^s~
1 M 1 1 1 [ 1 1 M

1947

r^-^s
1 1 M 1 1 1 1 M 1
1948

^ — r^~^r--^

I\S

200

100

11 1 1 1I 1 1 f ! I
1949

0

i i

i i i i LJ

40 42

44

46

MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS

1 M 11 11 M 1

48

1947

M i l l ! ] !

M 1 1 I 1 1i M i

1948

1949

C H E M I C A L PRODUCTS

400

400
MONTHLY Jk
AVERAGE j\

300

300

200

200

100

0

J

^—
\ i i |i i i ( |
40 42 44 46 48

—r—r~^

100

1 i i i i 1 1 1 I i I

1 ! I I 1 1 1 i 1 1 1

1947

1948

1 1 1 M

1 M M 1

0

1949

1 I I [ j r j . ..!.._ t...l._

40 42

44

46

48

II M 1 1f 11 1

1947

1 N 1111f 1

! 11 1 11M 111

1948

1949

SOURCE: BOARD OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE F E D E R A L RESERVE SYSTEM

[1935-39—100, seasonally adjusted]

Period

T

ssr 3H

,Manufae, IOOQ
m j
tjureol
products

m.
• i
v/nemicai
j ,
Products

1935-39 monlbhly average1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average.*
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average

100
153
146
162
163
169

100
185
235
173
193
218

100
145
151
150
157
159

100
384
284
236
251
254

1948: Octobe r
Novem ber .
Decem ber

167
164
156

217
227
231

161
159
158

255
257
257

1

Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
60386—50




13

NEW CONSTRUCTION
New construction again declined less than seasonally in December. Both private and public activity were
above levels of December 1948.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

Z,000

2,006

1,500

I.50O

T3

I

1,000

1,000

I Ii
\i I I i 1

1939

1942

1944

I94E

1947

500

F

1948

M

A M

J

J A

1949

1947

^INCLUDES PUBLIC RESIDEHTIAt CONSTRUCTION
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCIL OP ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars]
Private construction
Total new
construction

Period

1939 monthly average. 1942 monthly average _
1944 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average
1948' Nov6Tnrifir
December .
1949: January
February
March April
_- --- .
May
June
_,

„ _„
_ _

.

_.

____

July

August
September
October
December2
1

_.

.
..

526
1, 118
345
871
1,194
1,565
1,611
1,646
1,447
1,293
1,172
1,267
1,370
1,576
1,735
1,833
1,903
1,922
1,879
1,767
1.612

Total
private
317
251
152
688
932
1,214
1, 172
1,256
1,129
1,002
905
951
989
1,108
1,229
1,301
1,343
1,368
1,343
1,295
1.225

Includes public residential construction.
* Preliminary estimate.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.

14



Residential
(nonfarm)
176
110
45
265
438
602
585
615
547
475
400
420
445
530
600
650
675
710
715
715
690

Other
141
141
107
422
493
612
586
641
582
527
505
531
544
578
629
651
668
658
628
580
535

Federal,
State, and
local '

208
867
193
184
262
351
439
390
318
291
267
316
381
468
506
532
560
554
536
472
387

NEW HOUSING STARTS
Housing starts maintained their high levels to the end of 1949. The total for the year was 1,019,000
compared with 931,300 in 1948.
THOUSANDS OF UNITS

THOUSANDS OF UNITS

125

125

NEW NONFARM DWELLING UNITS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.




New nonfarm units started

Month
1947

January
February
March - April „ _ . . _ _
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

>

_>

k

Total.
Monthly average

1948

1949

39, 300
42, 800
56, 000
67, 100
72, 900
77, 200
81, 100
86, 300
93, 800
94, 000
79, 700
58, 800

53, 500
50, 100
76, 400
99, 500
100, 300
97, 800
95, 000
86, 600
82, 200
73, 400
63, 600
52, 900

50, 000
50, 400
69, 400
88, 300
95, 400
95, 500
96, 100
99, 000
* 102, 900
* 1100, 000
93, 000
1
79, 000

849, 000

931, 300

U, 019, 000

70, 750

77, 600

1

84, 900

1

Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.

15

EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT
AND EQUIPMENT
Plant and equipment expenditures by nonagricultural business firms in 2nd half of 1949 were estimated
at 14 percent less than those of 2nd half of 1948. Anticipated expenditures for 1st quarter of I960
are likewise reported as 14 percent below those of 1st quarter 1949. Electric and gas utilities are
the only major business group anticipating higher expenditures this quarter than a year ago
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

25
ANNUAL TOTALS

TRANSPORTATION AND
ELECTRIC AND GAS

FUTILITIES'^

1939

1941

* NO! ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL

1948
VARIATION

SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

[Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal]
Period

Total *

Manufacturing

Mining

Transportation
Railroad

1939
1941
.
1945
1947
1948.3
1949
1948: First quarter
Second quarter. _
Third quarter
Fourth quarter. _
1949: First quarter
Second quarter .
Third quarter 3 3 _ _
Fourth quarter
1950: First quarter 3

. .

___

_ __
_

1
Excludes agriculture.
2
Commercial and miscellaneous
3

. .

„

_ _

5,200
8, 190
6,630
16, 180
19, 230
17, 910
16, 680
19, 280
19, 320
21, 640
17, 840
18, 640
17, 440
17, 720
15, 280

1,930
3,400
3,210
7,460
8,340
7, 130
7,200
8,560
8,360
9,280
7,400
7, 520
6,760
6, 840
6,080

380
680
440
690
800
730
720
800
800
880
760
760
720
680
640

280
560
550
910
1,320
1,340
1,080
1,240
1,320
1,640
1,440
1,520
1,240
1,160
880

Other
280
340
320
800
700
510
720
760
680
680
520
560
520
440
320

Electric and Commercial
miscelgas utilities and
laneous *
480
710
630
1,900
2,680
3, 160
2,000
2,560
2,760
3,400
2,720
3,120
3, 160
3,600
2,960

1,850
2,490
1,480
4,430
5,390
5, 040
4,960
5,360
5,440
5,760
5,040
5,160
5,040
5,000
4, 440

composed of trade, service, finance, and communication.
Estimates for third quarter are based on preliminary estimates of business in July; figures for fourth quarter and first quarter of
1950 are based on anticipated capital expenditures.
NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultuial investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to
current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and
other data.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted).

16



NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES
After reaching the postwar peak (quarterly rate) during the 2nd quarter of this year, corporate issues fell
substantially in the 3rd quarter, reflecting the usual seasonal movement.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
3.0

BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S
3.0

2.5

2.5

2.0

2.0

1939

1943

1946

1947

SOURCE: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION,

COUNCIL OF E C O N O M I C A D V I S E R S

[Millions of dollars]
Proposed uses of net proceeds
Estimated
net proceeds

Period

New money
Total

1939
1943
1945
1946
1947
1948

quarterly average • «
quarterly average
quarterly average
quarterly average
quarterly average
quarterly average

--

1947: Third quarter _.
Fourth quarter
1948' First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter _..
1949* First quarter
Second quarter— _
Third quarter 2

_
_ _ _
-

Plant and
equipment

Working
capital

Retirement
of debt and
stock *

529
287
1,475
1,689
1,617
1,748

81
77
270
820
1, 148
1,491

43
35
159
529
852
1,060

39
42
111
291
296
431

448
210
1,206
869
469
257

1,374
2, 311

884
2,000

692
1,654

192
347

490
310

1,769
1, 817
1,352
2, 054

1,511
1,493
1,087
1,874

918
1,091
774
1,459

593
402
314
415

260
325
265
180

1,056
2,311
807

850
1,968
688

699
1,615
599

152
353
89

206
343
119

1
2

Includes small amount for other purposes.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission,




17

INVENTORIES AND SALES
Sales of manufacturers and wholesalers rebounded in November from their October dip. Retail Sales,
and inventories generally, showed little change.
BILL IONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

WHOLESALE
20

RETAIL
20-

s

S
INVEI* T( )RIES

-

INVE NT ORIES

I0

y
L

.&>*****
iiii i i i i i
40

42

44

46

y ..V ,.-"
s

\ ...
^/

0

.*

10

**"^X

SALES

•s'
1 II

1 ! I 11 1

48

II

1947

II

1 II 1 II

! 1 1

I 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 t 1

1948

0-

1949

1 1

I | 1 i t

40

42

44

I i 1 ( i | 1 1I 1 I i I II

46

48

1947

1 I111 1 1 1 1 1 1

1 1 1 ! I 1 I 1 1 1 1

1948

1949

PERCE NT OF 1935-1939 AVERAGE

BILL IONS OF DOLLARS

DEPARTMENT STORES

MANUFACTURERS
400

40
MONTHLY AVERAGE

MONTHLY AVERAGE

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

INVE NT ORIES

V

30

*****"•

\\
\..»

•---1

/s/^L -s,

%

"-...

300

f

YI

*••*

/

20

r,
J

, •T~~

x^A-

^-^^\

<**%wv

L ES

"/
40

42

1 1 1 i
44

| {
46

(SOURCE: DEPARTMENT

Period

1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 ! 1

48

1947

i ^

•

***

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1

1948

1 1 1 II 1 1 1 1 I 1
1949

0

!

s

1 1 1 1 1 J 1 1 I
40

42

44

46

1 1 1 1 1 I 11 1 11 1 1 111 i 1 1 111

48

1947

OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FE DERAL RES ERVE SYSTEM

Wholesale
Inventories 1
Sales 2

Retail
Inventories l
Sales 2

1948

Manufacturers
Inventories l
Sales 2
4

1939
5,100
5,532
3,504
11,465
3,175
2,505
1941
..
4,624
7,630
16, 960
4, 182
8, 168
3, 620
5,277
20, 098
12, 822
7,361
33684
4,273
1943
18, 390
12, 883
6,315
4,638
7,543
1945
4,983
8,358
24, 818
12, 841
6,665
11, 226
6,601
1946
9,909
29, 818
13, 221
17, 076
1947
- - 8,653
7,754
34, 066
18, 998
10, 837
14, 969
9,511
8,355
1948
- 33, 380
1948: September
10, 961
19, 902
14, 877
9,581
8,489
October
10, 899
33, 528
18, 978
9,730
14, 937
8,083
10, 763
33, 810
19, 288
November
9,714
15, 027
8,236
10, 987
34, 066
14, 969
19, 065
December
9,511
8, 158
10, 592
34, 409
1949 : January
14, 659
17, 880
9,464
7,723
February
10, 686
34, 408
18, 175
14, 479
9,479
7,680
March
'.
10,
705
34,
223
18, 451
7,890
14,
700
9,293
10, 790
34, 018
7,422
14, 458
17, 643
April
9,330
10, 738
33, 565
17, 741
14, 139
Mav
9, 153
7,539
4.VJ.C* J
10, 663
33, 250
17, 990
14, 182
9,002
June
_ 7,718
10, 521
32, 367
17, 114
13, 862
9,091
7,158
July
31, 638
10, 644
13, 932
18, 945
August „ »
.
7,522
9,061
31, 060
10, 824
18, 866
September
_
9, 186
7,518
14, 355
30, 754
• October 5
.
10, 647
16, 805
14, 475
9, 169
7, 160
November
10, 630
30, 700
18, 000
14. 262
9.228
7.466
1
Book
value,
end
of
period.
2
Monthly average for year and total for month.
*4 Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for month and retail book value <jf inventories, end of period.
All dollar figures, except for retail sales, have been revised and do not agree with data published prior to October 1949.
8
Preliminary estimates.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11
1949

COUNCIL or ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted

8

Xx

//1NVEJ JTC R1ES

200

1 00'

1 1 1

=>-"£

*+

^x....-*-.

}':..••"•

10

0

_

Department stores
Inventories 3
Sales 3
1935-39=100, seasonally
adjusted
102
106
131
133
155
168
166
207
264
213
286
255
291
302
309
291
290
309
295
290
288
303
278
295
276
281
283
277
294
280
273
292
265
285
256
280
283
253
264
289
276
270
276
273

MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
Imports rose in November for the 4th consecutive month, reaching the 1948 monthly average,
while exports continued to fall. As a result, the merchandise export surplus was cut to the lowest
level since, the maritime strike of 1946 and to about half of the monthly average for 1948.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,600

1,400

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1600

-

- 1,400

!t200

1,200

LOGO -

- 1,000

800

800

- 600

600 -

400

400

- 200

200 -

1936-38

1943

1946

M

1947

A M J

J A

S

1949

* RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, AND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AREAS.
** RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPOSTS.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY

[Millions of dollars]
Period

Exports *

1936-38 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average _
1947 monthly average..
1948 monthly average

- -.

-

1948: October
November
December
1949: Januarv
February
March.
April __
May
June
July
August
September
October, .
November
1
1

_

_„

_„
-.
__

_

-

-_

Imports *

Excess of
exports

247
1,080
877
849
1,278
1, 051

207
282
346
410
478
594

40
798
531
439
801
457

1, 021
820
1,285

600
554
720

421
266
565

1,094
1,032
1, 159
lf 148
1,077
1, 104
897
881
904
849
836

590
568
632
534
539
527
456
491
530
559
593

504
464
527
614
538
578
441
390
374
290
243

Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas.
Recorded general merchandise imports.
Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the_Army, and Department of the Navy.




PURCHASING POWER
NATIONAL INCOME
The drop in national income from 3rd to 4th quarter of 1949 was due largely to a fall in corporate
profits plus inventory valuation adjustment, although proprietors' income also fell somewhat.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

:!:::! CORPORATE PROFIT's ^NO
:•:•:•:•:INVENTORY VALUATION:
;:!:;:::!:;:;:::• ADJUSTMENT:;: <•:]

I

2

1950
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (except OS note^l).

COUNCIL Or ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]

Total
national
income

Period

1939
1944
1946
1947
1948
1949 *

_.

_._ .

72.5
183.8
179.6
201.7
226. 2
222.5

Compensation of
employees

47.8
121.2
117.0
127.6
140. 3
142. 2

Proprietors'
and rental Net interest
income

14.7
35.5
41.3
45. 1
49. 5
45.7

4.2
3.1
3.0
3.4
3.8
4.3

Corporate profits and inventory
valuation adjustment
Total
5.8
24.0
18.3
25.6
32.6
30. 3

Profits
before
taxes

Inventory
valuation
adjustment

6.5
24.3
23.6
31.6
34.8
27. 6

-0.7
-.3
-5.3
-6.0
-2.2
-2.7

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter _.
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarterSecond quarter
Third quarter 2
Fourth quarter *
1

20




1

215. 1
224.9
230.4
234.3

135. 1
137. 7
143.3
144.9

48.0
50.4
49.9
49.7

3.6
3. 7
3.9
4.1

28.5
33.0
33.3
35.7

33.0
35.0
36.6
34.5

-4.5
-2.0
-3.3
+ 1.2

226.3
223.4
222. 5
217.8

142. 5
141.8
142.2
142.3

47.8
46.5
44. 5
44.0

4. 2
4.3
4.3
4.4

31.8
30.9
'31.5
27. 1

29.4
26.4
128.0
26.5

+ 2.3
+4.5
+3.5
+.6

a
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data.
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE,—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).

CORPORATE PROFITS
Corporate profits during 3rd quarter of 1949 rose substantially from 2nd quarter levels. The
in manufacturing activity and the peak output of automobiles were largely responsible. The 4th
quarter level was affected by the work stoppages in steel and coal.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

40

ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY

4 0

ADJUSTED

10

1947
*

1948

I960

1949

NO ALLOWANCE FOR INVENTORY VALUATION A D J U S T M E N T

SOURCE' DEPARTMENT OF C O M M E R C E (EXCEPT AS NOTED)

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]

'

Corporate
profits
before taxes

Period

1929
.
—.
1939
_
1944
.
1946
_._
1947
1948 .1949 1

.-

9.8
6.5
24. 3
23.6
31.6
34.8
27. 6

Corporate
tax
liability
1.4
1.5
13. 5
9.6
12. 5
13.6
10. 9

Corporate profits after taxes
Total
8.4
5.0
10. 8
13. 9
19. 1
21.2
16. 7

Dividend
payments
5.8
3.8
4.7
5.8
7.0
7.9
8.4

Undistributed
profits
2.6
1.2
6. 1
8. 1
12. 1
13.2
8.3

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

33.0
35.0
36.6
34.5

12. 8
13.7
14.4
13.6

20.2
21.3
22.2
20.9

29.4
17.9
11. 5
1949* First quarter
26.4
10.6
15.8
Second quarter1
- ..
28.0
17.0
Third quarter l
11. 0
Fourth quarter
26, 5
10. 4
16. 1
1
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data.
NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment.
taxes and inventory valuation adjustment.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).



7.6
7.7
7.9
8.3

12.6
13. 6
14.3
12.6

8.4
8.4
8.4
8. 5

9.5
7.4
8.6
7.6

See p. 20 for profits before

21

PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income rose slightly in November with trc,
part of the increase.

payments accounting for the largest

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS DOLLARS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Billions of dollars]
Total
personal
income

Period

1939
1944.
1946 ...
1947
1948

.

_

..

72.6
165.9
176.9
193.5
211.9

Salaries, wages, Proprietors' Dividends
and rental and personal
and other
income
labor income
interest

45.7
116. 2
111.0
122.0
135. 1

14. 7
35.5
41.2
45. 1
49.5

9.2
10.6
13.2
14.8
16.2

Transfer
payments
3. 0
3.6
11.4
11.7
11. 1

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: October
November
December
1949: January
February
March . .
April
May
June.
__ _
July
August «
«
September
October 1
November
„
1

216. 3
216.6
217.0
215.7
212.9
212. 4
212.5
213. 1
211.9
209. 7
211.4
210.5
208.4
209.7

140.1
139. 5
139. 1
138.6
137. 1
135.6
136.8
137. 1
136. 1
136.3
136.6
137.0
135.3
135.9

49.0
49.8
50.3
49.0
47.2
47.3
46. 3
46.7
46.5
44.2
45.2
43. 8
43.9
44. 1

Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.

22



16.8
16.9
16. 9
17.0
17. 1
17. 1
17.2
17.3
17.2
17.1
17.3
17.4
17.5
17. 6

10.4
10.4
10.7
11. 1
11.5
12.4
12.2
12.0
12. 1
12. 1
12.3
12. 3
11.7
12. 1

CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING
Consumer expenditures in 4th quarter of 1949 were $ 178 billion (annual rate), a drop of only
$ 3 billion from the 4th quarter of 1948. During the same period, personal disposable income
dropped $ 5 billion and saving $2 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

250

200

150

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE {EXCEPT AS NOTED).

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
Disposable
personal
income!

Period

1939
1940
1941 .
1942--. ..
1943
1944
1945
1946-...
1947
1948
1949 2

_
.. _
_
__
--

__
-

70. 2
75.7
92.0
116.2
131. 6
147.0
151. 1
158. 1
172.0
190.8
192. 9

Less: Personal
consumption
expenditures

Equals: Personal saving

67.5
72. 1
82.3
90.8
101.6
111. 6
123. 1
147.8
166.9
178.8
178. 5

2.7
3. 7
9.8
25.4
30.0
35. 4
28.0
10. 3
5. 1
12.0
14. 4

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: First quarter
Second Quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter
Second quarter
Third qu arter 2
Fourth quarter _ _ __

__ _

181. 9
189. 6
195.2
196.2
194.9
193.8
191.9
191. 1

175.2
178. 7
180.3
180. 9
178.6
178.9
178.5
178.0

6.7
10. 8
15.0
15.3
16.3
14.8
13.3
13. 1

1
2

Income less taxes.
Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.



23

PER CAPITA INCOME
Per capita disposable income, in terms of real purchasing power, has declined very slowly but steadily
since the first quarter of 1949.
DOLLARS
1,600

ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1,200

800

400

j

1939

1940

1941

1942

1943

PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES

1944

1945

1946

1947

1948

1949*

3

1947

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS,

I

I

2

4

1948

I

3
1949

4*** I

2
1950

CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE CONSUMERS* PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE 1948=100
SOURCE:

DEPARTMENT

Period
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948 4
1949

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR (EXCEPT AS NOTED).

.

.

„

_ _

_
._

>.

Per capita disposable
personal
income 1
Current
1948 dollars *
dollars
$536
$923
574
981
691
1,125
1,262
867
1,314
970
1,065
1,405
1,082
1,389
1,342
1, 119
1,282
1, 194
1,302
1,302
1,309
1,293
Annual rates, seasonally
adjusted c.

1948: First quarter
Second Quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter
__ _ _ .
Second quarter.
_
_ _
Third quarter . 4_ _ _ _ _ «
Fourth Quarter _._
_ __
1
3

_
..

_

_
____

..

1,248
1,296
1, 328
1,328
1,314
1, 301
1,283
1, 271

1,273
1,301
1,305
1,319
1,325
1,314
1,300
1,294

Consumers'
price index1
1948=100
58. 1
58.5
61.4
68.7
73.8
75.8
77.9
83.4
93. 1
100.0
98. 8
Not adjusted
for seasonal
variation
98.0
99.6
101.8
100.7
99.2
99.0
98. 7
98. 2

2
Income less taxes.
Current dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base 1948=100,
The consumers' price index has been roughly adjusted to take account of the understatement from
December 1941-February 1947. This adjustment is4 in line with the report of the Mitchell Committee. The
unadjusted index will be found on page 2.
Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.

24




AVERAGE HOURLY EAE>NIN"GS

- SELECTED INDUSTRIES

Hourly earnings in both durable and nondurable man ufacturirig industries showed little change during

1November.
DOLLA RS PER HOUR

DOLL*kRS PER HOUR

1.60

1.50

DURABLE MANUFACTURING

NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING

1.50

1.40

I.4O

1.30

1948

J

^Pr^

1.30
J

CURRENT

1.20

DOLLARS*

/v

DOLLARS
CURRENT

t i i i i 1i i i i i
1947

| | i i i 1i i i i i
1948

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i i

1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1

1949

1950

0

1.20

BUILDING CONSTRUCTION

I I | 1| 1 M I t |

| 1| 1 1 1 1 | | | 1

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1 II 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1

1947

1948

1949

1950

RETAIL TRADE-GENERAL MERCHANDISE

i.l 0

2.00

sF^

1.90

1.00

1948 DOLLARS*/""/

1.80

1946

** / «*^.
/
^% CURRENT

DOLLARS

1

^/L
.80
| 1 | 1 | 1 1 | 1 | -1
1947

«/^

DOLLARS*

.90

r t

1.70

0

DOLLARS

1.10

1.20

2.1 0

xx

'""~ ';p
S^

0

^A=

^

I I I 1 I 1 1 I i 1 1 i t 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1
!948

1949

1 1 M

1 1 i 1 1 1 1

0

1950

"""""^

^-CURRENT

DOLLARS

1 I 1 t 1 1j i 1 I I

I i 1 ! 1 11 1 1 I 1

1947

1948

| I I 1 | 1I | 1 11
1949

1 1M | | 1 1 11 i

1950

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[Selected industries l]
All manufacturing
Period
Current
dollars
939 monthly average
.943 monthly average
.946 monthly average
.947 monthly average
948 monthly average
948: September. _
October _
November
December
949: January
February , __
March
April
Mav
June
July
August- 4
September
October 4 4
November
J.J.C*J

_ _
_ _

$0. 633
.961
1.084
1. 237
1.350
1.386
1. 390
1.397
1. 400
1.405
1.401
1.400
1.401
1.401
1.405
1.408
1.399
1.407
1. 392
1. 389

1948
dollars 2
$1. 090
1.302
1.300
1.329
1.350
1.360
1.371
1.389
1.399
1.408
1.419
1.414
1.414
1.418
1.418
1.431
1.419
1.420
1.415
1. 410

Durable goods manufacturing
Current
dollars
(3)
(33)
()
$1. 292
1.410
1.457
1.462
1.463
1.466
1.467
1.466
1.464
1.467
1.467
1.475
1.477
1.473
1. 482
1.458
1. 454

1948
dollars 2
(3)
(33)
()
$1. 388
1.410
1.430
1.442
1.454
1.465
1.470
1.485
1.480
1.480
1.485
1.488
1.501
1.494
1.495
1. 482
1.476

Nondurable goods
manufacturing
Current
dollars
(3)
(33)
()
$1. 171
1.278
1.304
1.302
1.317
1. 319
1.327
1.323
1.323
1.321
1.323
1. 324
1.332
1.319
1. 328
1. 326
1. 321

1948
dollars 2
(3)
(33)
()
$1. 258
1.278
1.280
1.284
1.309
1.318
1. 330
1.340
1.336
1.333
1. 339
1. 336
1. 354
1. 338
1. 340
1. 348
1. 341

Building construction
Current
dollars
(3)
(33)
()
(3)
$1. 848
1.895
1.892
1. 906
1. 915
1. 918
1. 930
1.933
1. 934
1. 930
1. 924
1. 922
1.932
1.940
1. 943
(3)

1948
dollars 2
(3)
(33)
()
(3)
$1. 848
1.360
1.866
1.895
1. 913
1. 922
1.955
1. 953
1.952
1.953
1. 941
1. 953
1.959
1.958
1. 975
(3)

General merchandise
retail trade
Current
dollars
(3)
(33)
()
$0. 853
.910
.923
.922
.918
.919
.943
.937
.933
.934
.960
.968
. 964
.961
.965
. 960
3
()

1948
dollars 2
(3)

?!

$0 916
910
906
909
913
918
945
949
942
942
972
977
980
975
974
976
3
()

1
2
3
4

Production and related workers.
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on base 1948=100. See note 3 to table on page 24.
Not available.
Preliminary estimates.
Source: Department of Labor.




25

AVERAGE WEEKLY EAFJNINfGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
Average weekly earnings in November dropped more t han a do liar for durable manufacturing and more
ifhan half a dollar for nondurables. Both decreases were att ributed to a shorter workweek.
DOLL ARS

DOLL ARS

PER WEEK

DURABLE MANUFACTURING

WEEK

NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING

*

60

DOLLARS

1948

r^

/

1

55

55

•%*^

1948

DOLLARS*
<£&

s£lf^

50

y^-ci

RRENT

DOLLARS

50

45

45

^^S/^* CURRENT

DOLLARS

40

1 1111 11 1111

0

l l 1 I I 1 i L_i_LJL

1947

1 1 I t 1 1 t i 1 1 1

1948

1949

I 1 1 1 t 1 f 1 I 1 !

0

I | } | | 1 i i i i i

,1 | l, 1 I 1 1 ! H 1 I I I I l 1 1 1 1 I I

1947

1950

80

1948

11I 1 1 I 1i 1 i l

1949

1950

•45

BUILDING CONSTRUCTION

RETAIL TRADE - GENERAL MERCHANDISE
40

75

70

x\/ W=iV

DOLLAFis

-v S*

35

/-'NF

*

1948

~

X^X

*«

1948

DOLLARS*

«*—v
4'"*~"SC"

/ \ ,^W]
/^c^/r^*

30

65
^•CURRENT C OLLARS

^~* CURRENT

DOLLARS

25

60

0

PER

60

65

=MII|

1 1i i i 1 1 i 1i i

1947
*

CURRENT

DOLtARS DIVIDED

SOURCE

DEPARTMENT

I

1948

1 I 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1

1949

1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 t 1 1

0

i l l l i 1 i I l i i

i i l i I 1 i i i ti

1947

1948

1950

t I I l l 1t I 1l l
1949

1 1 | 1 11 I I l | i
1950

BY CONSUMERS PRICE INDEX ON BASE OF 1948 MOO
OF

COUNCIL

LABOR

OF

ECONOMIC

ADVISORS

[Selected industries l]
All manufacturing

Durable goods manufacturing

Nondurable goods
manufacturing

Building construction

General merchandise
retail trade

Period
Current
dollars

1948
dollars 2

Current
dollars

1948
dollars 2

Current
dollars

1948
dollars 2

Current
dollars

$41. 07
$23. 86
1939 monthly average
(33)
(33)
(33)
(33)
(33)
58.46
43. 14
1943 monthly average
()
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
52. 45
43. 74
1946 monthly average
_ _ _
(33)
()
()
()
()
$50.
44
$52.
46
$46.
96
53.
67
$56.
35
49. 97
1947 monthly average
_
()
50. 61
$68. 85
50. 61
54. 14
57. 11
57. 11
1948 monthly average
54. 14
50. 21
70.59
50. 91
54. 83
59. 50
58. 68
55. 60
1948: October
- 69. 39
51. 63
51. 32
59. 11
58. 76
55. 27
November
55. 60
72.33
51.84
51. 79
56. 08
59. 67
59. 61
56. 14
December
- 70. 88
51. 35
51.45
58. 95
55. 50
55. 61
58. 83
1949: Januarv
52. 01
51. 33
70.53
58. 49
59. 26
55. 93
55. 20
Februarv
69. 83
51. 07
51. 59
57. 83
58. 41
54. 74
55. 29
March
50.
12
70. 33
49.
67
54. 29
57. 21
57. 73
53. 80
April
51.02
71.
81
50.41
54.
74
57.
21
57.
90
54.
08
May
- -- 50.97
51.43
57.82
71. 44
58. 35
54. 51
55.00
June
~ _
-_
52.39
58.24
71. 28
51. 55
55. 52
57.31
54.63
July.
52.04
71.95
51. 31
55.48
57.89
58.71
54. 70
August
4
53.07
52. 59
70.69
58.84
59. 37
55.72
56. 23
September
_ _
53. 36
71. 76
52. 51
58. 97
56. 16
55. 26
58. 03
October 4 4 _ _ _ _ _ _ _
52. 57
51. 78
57. 72
55. 28
56. 85
54. 45
November
(3)
1
For production and related workers.
2
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1948=100. See note 3 to table on page 24.
8
Not available.
4
Preliminary estimates.
Source: Department of Labor.

26



1948
dollars 2
(33)
(3)
()
(3)
$68. 85
69. 62
68. 98
72. 26
71. 02
71. 46
70. 54
70. 97
72. 68
72. 09
72.44
72. 97
71.33
72. 93
(3)

Current
dollars
(33)
(3)
()
$30. 96
33. 31
33. 19
32. 86
34. 46
34. 42
34.01
33. 68
34. 18
34. 85
35. 62
35. 86
35. 75
35. 32
34. 66
(3)

1948
dollars 2
(33)
(3)
()
$33. 25
33.31
32. 73
32. 66
34.43
34.49
34.46
34.02
34.49
35. 27
35. 94
36.44
36. 26
35.64
35.22
3
()

FARM INCOME
Farm income decreased in November as fall crop movements tapered off from their October peak,
In current dollars it was nearly 16 percent lower than in November 1948, in purchasing power
about 13 percent lower.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1939

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

M

A

M

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.

Farm income
(millions of
current
dollars) *

Period

1939 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average _
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1948: October
November
_
December
1 949 : January
February
__
March
April _
May
_
__ _
June
__
_ _
__ _
July
August. _
September
October 4 4
November _ _
____
__
_ _ _ _ _

_

__

724
981
1 340
1 678
1, 765
1, 857
2, 110
2 542
2, 609
3, 714
3, 314
2 740
2, 383
1, 783
1 973
1 850
1 944
2, 053
2 177
2,417
2 608
3 139
2.790

Prices paid by
farmers (incl
Farm income
(millions of
interest arid
1948
dollars) 3
taxes) 1948=
2
100
49 8
53 0
60 2
65 1
67 9
69 1
77. 5
92 8
100 0
100 0
99 2
99 6
99 6
98 4
98 8
98 8
98 4
98 4
98 0
97 7
97 2
96 4
96.0

1 454
1, 851
2 226
2 578
2 599
2 687
2, 723
2 739
2 609
3, 714
3, 341
2 751
2, 393
1, 812
1 997
1 872
1 976
2 086
2 221
2 474
2 683
3 256
2.906

1
2
3
4

Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments.
Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1948 = 100.
Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1948= 100.
Preliminary estimates.
Source: Department of Agriculture.



21

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
According to preliminary estimates, purchases of durable goods and services reached a new high in
4th quarter of 1949. Nondurable goods continued the decline §tarted the first part of this year,
and were 8 percent below 4th quarter of 1948.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
200

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
200

ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

ANNUAL TOTALS

TOTAL
EXPENDITURES

W$&£$. DURABLE GOODS§£$&$p

100

50

PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED).

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
Personal consumption expenditures
Period

Nondurable
goods

Total

1939
1944
1946-.
1947
1948
1949 1

67.5
111.6
147.8
166. 9
178.8
178. 5

35.3
67. 1
86.8
96.2
102.2
97. 7

Durable
goods
6.7
7.1
16.5
22.0
23.5
24.8

Services

25.5
37.4
44. 5
48.8
53. 1
56.0

Annual rates, seasonally adjusted

1948: First quarter
Second quarter.,
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter
Second quarter—
Third quarter !
Fourth quarter _

.
_ .>

.

. .

175.2
178.7
180.3
180.9

101.2
102. 4
101.8
103.3

22.7
23.8
24.8
22.9

51.3
52. 5
53.7
54.8

178.6
178.9
178.5
178.0

100. 1
99.3
96.5
95. 0

23. 1
23.8
25.8
26.5

55.4
55.9
56.2
56. 5

^Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.

28



CONSUMER CREDIT
With a large seasonal rise in instalment credit, chiefly other than automobile, and in charge accounts,
total consumer credit in December increased more than during the corresponding period of 1948,
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2 0

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2 0

A

1948
* PRELIMINARY

S

0

N

D*

1949

END OF MONTH

; BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE : BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

[Millions of dollars]
Total
consumer
credit
outstanding

End of period

1939__
1943
1946
1947
„
1948 2
_>
1949
1948: November
December
1949: January
February
March
April
May
__
June.
July
August
September
October
November 2
December
1
2

__ _

7,969
5,378
10, 191
13, 673
16, 319
18, 700
15, 739
16, 319
15, 748
15, 325
15, 335
15, 595
15, 843
16, 124
16, 198
16, 453
16, 801
17, 220
17, 823
18, 700

Instalment credit
Total
4,424
2,001
4,000
6,434
8,600
10, 900
8,322
8,600
8,424
8,339
8,429
8,630
8,888
9, 123
9,335
9,622
9,897
10, 162
10, 450
10, 900

Automobile
sale
credit

Other sale
credit and
loans

1,267
175
544
1, 151
1,961
3,200
1,922
1,961
1,965
1,996
2, 105
2,241
2,386
2, 499
2,610
2, 761
2,876
2, 986
3, 095
3,200

3,157
1,826
3, 456
5,283
6,639
7,700
6,400
6,639
6,459
6,343
6,324
6,389
6,502
6,624
6,725
6, 861
7,021
7, 176
7,355
7,700

Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit.
Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




Charge
accounts

1,544
1,498
3,054
3,612
3,854
3,800
3,557
3,854
3,457
3, 169
3,121
3,232
3,235
3,274
3, 123
3,064
3, 123
3, 197
3,454
3,800

Other
consumer
credit *

2,001
1,879
3, 137
3, 627
3, 865
4,000
3,860
3,865
3,867
3,817
3,785
3,733
3,720
3,727
3,740
3, 767
3,781
3,861
3,919
4,000

MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS
Since July commercial bank loans have risen steadily, reaching at the end of December a figure about
$700 million larger than at the end of 1948.
B I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S

125

125

100

100

75 .-

50 -

- 25

25

1929 I93S 1945
END OF YEAR

194?

1949

1948
END OF MONTH

[Billions of dollars, all commercial banks]

End of period

1929
1939
1945
1947
*...
1948 1
1949
1948: November
December.1949: January
February
„
March
April
May .
June
„
July

August
September
October
November
December i
1

so

.
_

_._

--~

_
.
_ _ _ _ „ „ _
,
-

.
„

Investments

Total
loans and
investments

Bank loans

49.5
40. 7
124.0
116.3
114.3
121. 0
114.2
114.3
114.5
113.4
112.5
112.5
113.4
113.7
114.7
117.9
118. 8
119.8
120. 2
121. 0

36,0
17. 2
26. 1
38. 1
42.5
43. 2
42.3
42.5
42.4
42. 0
42.4
41.3
40.9
41.2
40.5
41.2
41. 8
41. 9
42. 9
43. 2

Total

Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,




13. 5
23.4
97.9
78.2
71.8
77. 8
71.9
71.8
72.0
71. 4
70. 1
71, 2
72.6
72. 5
74.2
76.7
77.0
77. 9
77. 3
77. 8

U.S.
Government
securities
4.8

16. 3
90.6
69.2
62.6
67. 5
62.8
62.6
63.0
62. 2
60. 9
62.0
63.2
63.0
64.4
66.7
66. 8
67.7
67. 1
67. 5

Other
securities
8.7

7. 1

7.3
9.0
9.2

10. 3
9. 1
9.2

9. 1
9. 1

9.2
9.2

9. 3

9.5
9.8

10.0
10. 2
10. 2
10. 2
10. 3

MONEY SUPPLY
The money supply increased $1.5 billion in December, exceeding the 1948 year-end total by $| billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY
{ EXCLUDING U.S,GOV'T. DEPOSITS)

IADJUSTED DEMAND DEPOSITS

1943
1946 1947
END OF YEAR

J F M

1948

A

M

J

J

A

1948

M

J

J

A

1949

END OF MONTH
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM EXCEPT AS NOTED,

[Billions of dollars]
Total money
supply

End of period

1939
1943
1946 '
_
1947
1948.3
1949
1948: November
December
1949: January
„ ,
,
February „
„..
March
..
April
_
*
Mav
£*J
June__
July .
August
__ _
September
October
November
December 3
_ _

- _
_« -

___
_

63.3
112.4
164.0
170. 0
169. 1
170. 1
168. 1
169. 1
168. 2
166.3
164. 2
165.5
165. 7
165. 6
166. 3
166.9
166. 6
168. 0
168. 6
170. 1

Currency
outside
banks
6.4
18. 8
26. 7
26. 5
26. 1
25, 2
25. 9
26. 1
25. 2
25. 1
25. 1
24.9
25. 0
25. 0
24.9
25. 1
24. 9
24. 9
25. 1
25. 2

Adjusted
demand
deposits l
29. 8
60. 8
83. 3
87. 1
85. 5
86 7
85. 2
85. 5
85. 4
83. 4
81. 1
82.4
82. 6
82. 2
83. 1
83. 4
83. 3
84. 6
85. 5
86. 7

Time
deposits s
27 1
32 7
54. 0
56 4
57. 5
58 2
57 0
57. 5
57.6
57.8
58. 0
58. 1
58. 2
58. 4
58. 4
58. 3
58 4
58 4
58 0
58. 2

1

Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection.
2
Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System.
3
Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.



31

FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM
AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC
The cash deficit of about $1.9 billion for the 4th quarter compares with a deficit of about
$0.9 billion for the same quarter of 1948.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

I

16

1

2

2 ,947 3

1946

4

1948

2 1949 3

1948

1949

4

EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS

m
EXCESS OF CASH

1946

3

*

'

* 1947
CALENDAR

YEARS

# PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES

SOURCE: B U R E A U OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars]
Federal cash
receipts from
the public l

Calendar years

Federal cash
payments to
the public l

Excess of receipts (-f) or
payments (— )

Calendar year total:
+ 54
41, 372
41, 426
1946
44, 279
38, 584
+ 5,695
1947
.__
44, 920
36, 954
+ 7,967
1948 2
. -_
-1,700
41, 400
43, 100
1949
- _
_
Quarterly total, not adjusted for seasonal:
14, 345
9, 163
+ 5, 182
1947: First quarter
9, 847
— 781
Second quarter
10, 628
10, 257
—37
10, 220
Third quarter
8, 536
9, 869
Fourth quarter
+ 1,331
8,637
15, 037
+6, 400
1948: First quarter
9,033
+ 1, 205
10, 238
Second quarter
+ 1,287
10, 085
8, 798
Third quarter
9, 560
— 925
10, 486
Fourth quarter
9, 964
13, 122
+ 3, 158
1949' First quarter
8,814
11,355
—2, 541
Second quarter 10, 143
10, 528
— 385
Third quarter - 2
-1,900
Fourth quarter
_ _
9,300
11, 200
1
Payments of refunds of Government receipts are now reported as deductions from total receipts; previously,
they were reported as expenditures.
2
Preliminary estimates based on incomplete data.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget.

o
32



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