Full text of Economic Indicators : February 1950
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Economic Indicators
FEBRUARY 1950
Prepared for the joint Committee on the Economic "Report
_/
by the Council of Economic Advisers
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1950
JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Coog.)
JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming, 'chairman
EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey, Viet Chairman
FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania
JOHN J. SPARKMAN, Alabama
PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois
ROBERT A, TAFT, Ohio
RALPH E,
Vermont
ARTHUR V. W ATKINS, Utah
WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas
WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio
FRANK BUCHANAN, Pennsylvania
JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan
ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania
CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts
TIIKODORE J. KREPS, Staff Director
GMOVMK W. ENSLBI, Associate Staff Director
JintN W» XJBNMAN, Clerk
[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGIUSS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION |S. J. Ron. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled " Hconomu' Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America /'// Cotivms tijjctMfJ, Tfuf the Joint Commit (cr on the Economic
port be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," ami c h a t a Miflif inn qmujurv t>< primed to furnish one
py to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the ( k t k , N rj-eanf m Ann?.. ;uul Doorkeeper of the
>use of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the CongrcNsicinal 1 . i h i a i y . ;.<- v< ti }nsin!rr»} topics to the Joint
mmittee on the Economic Report; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent o! I >»u n u n - t i t s Im d n a r t l n i f i o n to depository
varies; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale tu die jnihlu
Approved June 23, 1949.
i the Members of Congress:
From the time the Joint Committee on the Economic Report was established its members rcali'/cd that one of its
isic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of current economic trends and developments.
Fortunately, the joint committee found that Economic Indicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiled monthly
f the Council of Economic Advisers, admirably filled this need. While this material was prepared originally for the
>e of the President, the Council, and other officials in the executive offices, the Council made it available to the joint
mimittee.
Other Members of Congress also expressed an interest in being able to obtain a quick picture of current economic
,cts without having to go through voluminous and specialized documents. In addition businessmen, farm leaders,
,bor organizations, and representatives of the press and radio indicated their desire for this information.
Accordingly, the joint committee provided the Congress and the public with a limited number of copies of
conomic Indicators as a committee print pending final action on authorizing the publication on a more permanent basis,
.s is indicated above such legislation has now been passed and the committee will issue the report on a regular monthly
isis.
Comments or suggestions with respect to possible improvements in this presentation will always be welcome.
W.S,S.(
Chairman, Joint Committee on the Economic Report.
Letter o£ Transmittal
Hon. JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Chairman,
Joint Committee on the Economic Report,
United States Congress, Washington, D. C.
DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the
Joint Committee on the Economic Report in making Economic Indicators available to the
Congress as a whole and to the general public, in accordance with Public Law 120, Eightyfirst Congress.
In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has found
it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts showing
current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a better position
to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the improvement
and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services.
In this undertaking the Council has the full cooperation of the several agencies of the
Federal Government that collect statistical material. In many cases these agencies supply
advance estimates for use in Economic Indicators. While the charts are drawn through the
courtesy of the Graphics Unit in the Office of the Secretary of Commerce, the Council takes
complete responsibility for the graphic presentation.
This material has proven useful to the President, the Council, the executive departments, and the Congress. Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and
consumer organizations with whom we regularly consult.
We believe that the Congress is performing a service of real value by making this
material available.
Sincerely yours,
Acting Chairman.
/W
Ill
Contents
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
Page
The Nation's Economic Budget
1
PRICES
Consumers' Prices
Wholesale Prices. .
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
Stock Prices
2
3
4
5
EMPLOYMENT
Labor Force
Nonagricultural Employment—Selected Industries
Average Weekly Hours—Selected Industries
Work Stoppages
6
7
8
9
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production
Weekly Production—Selected Indicators
Production of Selected Durable Manufactures
Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures
New Construction
New Housing Starts
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
New Corporate Security Issues
Inventories and Sales
Merchandise Exports and Imports
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
,
PURCHASING POWER
National Income
Corporate Profits
Personal Income
Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving
Per Capita Income
Average Hourly Earnings—Selected Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries
Farm Income
>
Personal Consumption Expenditures
,
Consumer Credit
..
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
Bank Loans and Investments
Money Supply
Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public
30
31
32
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
The economic decline leveled off in 4th quarter 1949, the total output of goods and services being less
than $1 billion (annual rate) below 3rd quarter, according to preliminary estimates. Allowing for the effects
of industrial disputes, the year's end found the economy moving upward.
1949,4th Quarter
TOTAL
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
EXCESS OF
EXPENDITURES {-), RECEIPTS (+)
(Gross National Product)
CONSUMER
SAVING
BUSINESS
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
EXCESS OF
RECEIPTS
GOVERNMENT
( Federal, state and local)
57.4
CASH
DEFICIT
••Transfer payments
1949, 3rd
TOTAL
Quarter
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
(Gross National Product)
CONSUMER
SAVING
BUSINESS
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
EXCESS OF
RECEIPTS
GOVERNMENT
{ Federal, state and local)
CASH
DEFICIT
•onsfer payments-'
SOURCE:
SEE ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JANUARY 1950, APPENDIX
A.
COUNCil OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
PRICES
CONSUMERS' PRICES
Consumers1 prices decreased 0.7 percent from November to December, reaching the lowest level
since March 1948. Food prices declined significantly; apparel prices continued to drop. Most
other components advanced.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
180
140
120
1940
1941
1944
1943
1942
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
•ALSO INCLUDES HOUSEFURNISHINGS, FUEL, ELECTRICITY, REFRIGERATION, AND MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES, NOT SHOWN ON CHART.
SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
[1936-39=100]
Period
1940 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average 1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average _ _.
1948 monthly average . . - . .
.
.
1949 monthly average
1948: November 15.
December 15 .
1949: January 15
February 15
March 15
April 15
May 15_
_
June 15
July 15.
August 15
-„
September 15
October 15
November 15
December 15__
All items
100. 2
105. 2
116. 5
123. 6
125. 5
128. 4
139. 3
159. 2
171. 2
169. 1
172. 2
171. 4
170. 9
169. 0
169. 5
169.7
169.2
169. 6
168. 5
168. 8
169. 6
168. 5
168. 6
167. 5
Food
96. 6
105. 5
123. 9
138.0
136. 1
139. 1
159. 6
193. 8
210. 2
201. 9
207. 5
205.0
204. 8
199. 7
201. 6
202. 8
202.4
204. 3
201. 7
202. 6
204. 2
200. 6
200. 8
197. 3
NOTE.—Prices are for moderate-income families in large cities.
Source: Department of Labor.
Apparel
101.7
106. 3
124. 2
129. 7
138. 8
145. 9
160.2
185. 8
198.0
190. 1
201.4
200.4
196. 5
195. 1
193.9
192.5
191.3
190. 3
188. 5
187.4
187. 2
186.8
186. 3
185. 8
Rent
104.6
106. 2
ioa 5
108.0
108.2
108. 3
108. 6
111.2
117. 4
120. 8
118. 8
119. 5
119. 7
119. 9
120. 1
120. 3
120.4
120. 6
120.7
120.8
121. 2
121. 5
122.0
122. 2
Fuel, electricity, and
refrigeration
House furnishings
99.7
102. 2
105.4
107. 7
109.8
110. 3
112. 4
121. 1
133. 9
137. 5
137. 9
137.8
138.2
138. 8
138.9
137.4
135.4
135. 6
135. 6
135,8
137. 0
138.4
139. 1
139. 7
100. 5
107. 3
122. 2
125. 6
136.4
145. 8
159. 2
184.4
195. 8
189.0
198. 7
19a 6
196.5
195. 6
193.8
191. 9
189.5
187.3
186.8
184.8
185. 6
185. 2
1 85. 4
185. 4
Miscellaneous
101. 1
104.0
110.9
115. 8
121.3
124. 1
12& 8
139.9
149. 9
154.6
153. 9
154.0
154. 1
154. 1
154.4
154. 6
1545
154. 2
154.3
154.8
155.2
155. 2
154. 9
155. 5
WHOLESALE PRICES
and food prices were lower in January. Industrial prices showed little change.
PERCENT OF I9E6 A V E R A G E
220
200
160
I
I
I
I
I I I
I I I
I I
I
I
I
1949
I
t
i
t
I
I
1
1950
120
OTHER THAN FARM
PRODUCTS AND FOODS
(INDUSTRIAL)
| |
1 I | I | I
I
I
I
0| I | I I I I I 1 1 1 I I I II II I I I I. 1 1 I I 1 II II I|I1 I| lj i l I t I II II II II II II I II It Ii Il II II II II II IM II II II IM IM !I II M iI l II II II.1 II II II II II II I1I| I I II II I> II I I II .II II ]] II I II ) II 1 II I1I) I I II tt I| 1 I |11 1 I I i1 lI l1I1 I1 1 II I) < 0
.
I
1
J
I
LI t
,1
1
I 1
1 i 1
1
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
LATEST DATA PLOTTED ; MONTHLY - JANUARY
W E E K L Y -JANUARY 31
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1926=100]
1942 monthly average
1946 monthly average ..
. .
June
.
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average *
1949: January .. .
.
February
March
April
May
. .
June
July
August
.. September—
October
November
December.
1950: January1
_ _ _ _ _ _
Week ended:
1949- December 27
1950: January 3_
10
98. 8
121. 1
112. 9
152. 1
165. 1
154. 9
160. 6
158. 1
158. 4
156. 9
155. 7
154. 5
153. 5
152.9
153. 6
152. 2
151. 6
151. 3
151. 1
105. 9
148. 9
140. 1
181.2
188.3
165. 5
172. 5
168. 3
171. 5
170. 5
171. 2
168. 8
166.2
162. 3
163. 1
159. 6
156. 8
155.3
155. 0
99. 6
130. 7
112.9
168. 7
179. 1
161.4
165. 8
161. 5
162. 9
162. 9
163. 8
162.4
161.3
160. 6
162.0
159. 6
158. 9
155. 7
154. 5
Other than
farm products and foods
95.5
109.5
105.6
135.2
151.0
147. 3
152. 9
151. 8
150.7
14R9
146.8
145.6
145.0
145.0
145. 3
145.0
145.0
145.4
145. 3
151. 1
150. 6
151. 4
150. 9
150. 7
151. 1
155. 1
153. 9
155. 3
153. 4
153. 2
155. 5
155. 6
154.5
155. 9
155. 0
154. 5
154. 7
145.4
145.1
145. 2
145. 2
145. 1
145. 1
All commodities
Period
. ...
..
.. .
_- _ . -
17
_ _ _ _ _ _
_ _.
24 __
31
1
Estimate based on change in weekly data.
Source: Department of Labor,
Farm products
Foods
PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Both prices received and prices paid by farmers increased from December to January. The parity
ratio, revised in accordance with the Agricultural Act of 1949, stood at 94.
PERCENT OF 1910-14
PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE
350
350
PRICES RECEIVED
300
300
250
250
PRICES PAID
(INCL, INTEREST, TAXES
AND WAGE RATES)
200
200
150
100
PARITY RATIO*
50
I
1939 40
41 42 43 44 45 46
J
47 48 49
F M
I
A
I
M
I
I I
J
J
I
A
I I
S
O
N
D
J
F
1948
SOURCE:
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
N
< J
D
Prices
received
by farmers
Period
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
- „ • „ . .
- -
~ -
1948: December 15
1949: January 15
February 15
March 15
April 15
May 15
June 15
July 15August 15
September 15
October 15
November 15
December 15
1950: January 15
1
2
A S 0
N D
COUNCIL ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1910-14=100]
1939
1942
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
J
1950
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
O
1949
2
2
2
95
158
196
206
234
275
285
249
Prices paid by
farmers (including interest, Parity ratio *
taxes, and
wage rates)
123
152
182
189
207
240
259
250
77
104
108
109
113
115
110
100
266
-•»«
. »_ -
_ „
.
-__
.- ~__
_
257
104
265
255
258
256
253
249
246
244
247
242
237
233
256
252
255
254
253
252
250
249
248
246
245
246
104
101
101
101
100
99
98
98
100
98
97
95
235
249
94
Ratio of index of prices received to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates,
Includes wartime subsidy payments paid on beef cattle, sheep, iambs, milk, and butterfat
between October 1943 and June 1946.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
STOCK PRICES
Stock price fluctuations during January were within a range well above the December level.
PERCENT OF 1935 - 39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
I 75
175 I
WEEKLY AVERA6E
ISO
125
125
A
•
./ /
\\ / A\
V
\
100
75
50
I
1
1
1
1939 40 41 42 43 44
1
1
I
45 46
1
47 48 49
1
M A M J J A S O N D
J F M A M J J A S O N
1948
D J F M A M J J A S O N
1949
1950
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: STANDARD AND POOR'S CORPORATION
f 1935-39=100]
Period
Weekly average:
1939
1942
1946
1948 .
1949
1949: January
February ...
.
March
.- „
April
.. . ..
May
.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
__ _
1950: January
Week ended:
1950: January 4 _
.
_ __
11
18
25
February 1
Combined
index l
Industrials
Railroads
Utilities
94. 2
69. 4
139. 9
124.4
121. 3
121.0
117.2
118. 0
118. 5
117. 7
112.0
117. 8
121. 9
123.8
127. 3
129. 1
132. 6
135. 1
94. 8
71. 3
143. 4
130. 6
127. 5
127.3
122.7
123. 7
124. 2
123. 4
117.0
123.4
128. 2
130. 3
134.4
136. 5
140. 3
142. 6
74.7
66. 1
143. 0
114 7
96. 4
105.9
99.6
97.4
97. 1
95.8
88.4
90.6
94. 6
95. 1
97. 6
96.2
101.0
107. 8
98.6
61. 3
120.2
96.2
97.5
94. 2
94.4
95. 3
96. 1
95.3
93.0
95.4
98. 5
100.0
101.2
102. 6
104. 1
105. 8
135.0
136. 5
134. 9
134. 1
136. 1
142. 7
144. 2
142. 3
141. 3
143. 7
107. 5
109. 5
107. 4
106. 6
106. 8
105.0
106. 1
105. 9
106. 2
107. 2
1
Combined index prior to June 23, 1948. was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials,
20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads,
and 31 utilities.
Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.
61683—50
EMPLOYMENT
LABOR FORCE
Unemployment, due largely to seasonal employment declines in trade, construction, and agriculture
jumped sharply to 4.5 million in January. Total nonagricultural employment was slightly above that
for January 1949.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS
MILLIONS OF PERSONS
70
70
UNEMPLOYMENT
60
50
40
30
20
": 'i;: ,••
*\
I I .1 I J: I
I I .'i.'-O I
0
PERCENT
20
PERCENT
20
UNEMPLOYMENT - PERCENT OF LABOR FORCE
15
15
10
10
5
mi>^^^
I
Sffff^:*^^
0
1939
1944
1947
1948
MONTHLY AVERAGE
I I I I I I I I I I I
1949
1950
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Total labor
force, including
armed
forces
Period
Civilian employment l
Total
In nonagricultural
industries
In agriculture
Armed
forces
Unemployment
Unemployment as
percent of
labor force
Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over
1939 monthly average _
1944 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average _ _
1949 monthly average
1948: December _ _ _
1949: January _
February
March
April
May
June
July __ _
August
September
October _ . ,
November.
December
1950: January
1
_ _
__ _
_ _
55, 600
65, 890
61, 608
62, 748
63, 571
62, 828
61, 546
61, 896
62, 305
62, 327
63, 452
64, 866
65, 278
65, 105
64, 222
64, 021
64, 363
63, 475
62, 835
45, 750
53, 960
58, 027
59, 378
58, 710
59, 434
57, 414
57, 168
57, 647
57, 819
58, 694
59, 619
59, 720
59, 947
59,411
59, 001
59, 518
58, 556
56, 947
36, 140
45, 010
49, 761
51, 405
50, 684
52, 059
50, 651
50, 174
50, 254
49, 999
49, 720
49, 924
50, 073
51, 441
51, 254
51, 290
51, 640
51, 783
50, 749
9,610
8,950
8,266
7,973
8,026
7,375
6,763
6,993
7, 393
7, 820
8, 974
9,696
9, 647
8,507
8, 158
7, 710
7,878
6,773
6, 198
370
11, 260
1,440
1,307
1,466
1,453
1,468
1,508
1,491
1,492
1,469
1,468
1,463
1,468
1, 459
1,445
1,436
1, 430
1,408
9,480
670
2, 142
2,064
3, 395
1,941
2, 664
3,221
3, 167
3,016
3,289
3,778
4,095
3,689
3,351
3,576
3,409
3,489
4,480
17. I
1.0
3.5
3.3
5.3
3. 1
4.3
5.2
5. 1
4. 8
5.2
5.8
6.3
5.7
5.2
5.6
5.3
5. 5
7. 1
Includes part-time workers and those who had jobs but were not at work for such reasons as vacation, illness, bad weather,
temporary lay-off, and industrial disputes.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.,
NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
Pre-holiday seasonal activity increased the December employment in trade and post-offices (part
of Government ). The rise of 290,000 in employment in durable goods industries reflected the
settlement of labor disputes affecting steel and auto workers.
MILLIONS OF. WAGE
AND SALARY WORKERS
8.0
MILLIONS OF WAGE
AND SALARY WORKERS
9.0
NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING
DURABLE MANUFACTURING
1947.
75
1948
1948
7.0
6.5
6.0 —-
7.0
O I
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
I
J
I
F
i
M
I
A
I
I
M
J
J
I
A
I
S
I
O
I
N
O
10.5
TRADE
CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION
A
9.5
9.0
1.5
1948
7-
1947
8.5
I
J
F
I
M
I
A
I
M
J
J
J
A
S
O
I
I
N
D
J
I
F
I
M
I
A
r
I
M
J
J
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
i
A
i
S
O
N
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC
O
ADVISERS
[Thousands of wage and salary workers l]
Manufacturing
Period
1 939 monthly average
1 943 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average 3
1949 monthly average
1948: December
1949: January.
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October 3 3_ _
November
December 3
Total
_
10, 078
17, 381
14, 461
15, 247
15, 286
14, 142
15, 174
14, 782
14, 649
14, 475
14, 177
13, 877
13, 884
13, 757
14, 114
14, 312
13, 888
13, 776
14, 007
Durable
goods
(2)
(2)
(2)
8,373
8,315
7,464
8,258
8,044
7,923
7,819
7,656
7,441
7,392
7,255
7,302
7, 409
6, 984
7,023
7,314
Contract
Nondur- construction
able goods
(2)
(2)
2
()
6,874
6,970
6,678
6,916
6,738
6,726
6,656
6,521
6,436
6,492
6,502
6,812
6,903
6,904
6, 753
6,693
1, 150
1,567
1,661
1,982
2, 165
2, 160
2,200
2,016
1,926
1,947
2,036
2, 137
2,205
2,277
2,340
2,341
2,313
2, 246
2, 135
Trade
6,705
7,322
8,815
9, 196
9,491
9,432
10, 273
9,388
9,292
9,310
9,478
9,342
9,336
9,220
9,213
9,409
9,496
9,579
10, 118
Finance
and
service
4,610
5,187
5,994
6,427
6,515
6,544
6,481
6,454
6,447
6,469
6,525
6,567
6,608
6,631
6,616
6,604
6, 562
6, 534
6,512
Government Transportation and
(Federal,
public
State, local)
utilities
3,987
6, 049
5,607
5,454
5,613
5,813
5, 994
5,764
5,737
5, 761
5,775
5,813
5,803
5, 738
5,763
5,893
5,866
5,783
6,061
2,912
3, 619
4,023
4, 122
4, 151
3,977
4, 158
4,054
4,024
3,975
3, 991
4,021
4,031
4,007
3,992
3, 959
3,872
3,893
3,907
Mining
845
917
852
943
981
930
1, 002
991
986
981
984
974
968
943
956
948
593
914
927
Includes all full- and part-time wage an>d salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending
nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this
table not comparable with estimates of nonag/icultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 6) which include
proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and
which are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
3
Not available.
1
Preliminary estimate.
Bource: Department of Labor.
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
The workweek in both durable and nondurable manufacturing in December equaled the peaks for the
/ear with durable goods increasing almost a full hour over the November level.
HOUF*S PER WEEK
HOURS PER WEEK
DURABLE MANUFACTURING
NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING
42
42
.
—vXK/SA/-V
40
40
Vv/V
38
/N/
36
34
Y\S
V
38
36
-v^.
^
N
34
1 1 M
0
! 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 M
1947
1 1i 1 1 1I
1948
LJ M 1 1 I I 1 M
I 1 M
1949
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 I1 1 1 1 1 11
1 I M I I I I 1 ! 1
0
1947
1950
MM. hi...
1948
M M I I I M M
1949
I960
RETAIL TRADE
BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
42
42
40
40
>•/
38
38
*
36
v/^flV~x
34
0
_S\~^/\ /v^/V
hii
",,,1
1947
1948
36
34
_
i i i ii 1 i i i ii
0.
1 1 1 I 1 I 1I 1 t I
MM. I , M M
1947
!,,,,?
1948
1949
1950
1949
M f i 1 11 M
M
I960
i
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC
[Hours per week, selected industries !]
Manufacturing
Period
1939 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average 3_ _ _ _ _
1 948 : December
1949: January
February
March
..
April
...
May
June
July
August- September
October 8 3
November
.
December 3
1
2
3
For production and related workers.
Not available.
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.
Total
37. 7
44. 9
40. 4
40. 4
40. 1
39. 2
40. 1
39.5
39.4
39. 1
38.4
38.6
38. 8
38.8
39. 1
39. 6
39. 7
39. 2
39.8
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
2
(2 )
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
40. 6
40. 5
39. 5
40.7
40. 1
39. 9
39. 5
39.0
39.0
39.2
38.8
39.3
39.6
39. 9
39.2
40. 1
40. 1
39.6
38. 8
39.3
38. 7
38.8
38.6
37.6
38. 1
38.5
38.7
38.9
39.6
39.6
39.2
39. 6
T>_- "1 J;_» _
jDUiiaing
construction
Retail trade
(2)
2
(2 )
2
(2)
(2)
()
(2)
2
37.3
()
37.8
37.0
36. 5
36. 1
36.4
37.2
37. 1
37. 1
37.2
36. 5
36.9
36. 1
(2)
2
40. 3
40. 3
()
(2)
40.4
40. 2
40. 2
40. 1
40.2
40. 3
40. 5
40. 9
40. 9
40. 5
40. 4
40. 1
ADVISERS
WORK STOPPAGES
With the ending of the coal and steel stoppages, man-days of idleness dropped sharply in November and
December from the high level in October
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE
15
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE
I5
' 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 194? 1948
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
Man-days idle during
period
Period
1939
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948 1
1949
1948: November
December
1949: January l J . „ ..
February
..
March L.
..
April l *
_
May
June *
July i.
August *. l
September
October * 1
November l
December
1
Beginning
Monthly
Percent of
in
estimated
average
period
(thousands) working time (thousands)
1,484
1,921
349
1, 125
727
3, 169
9,667
2,883
2,842
4,417
1,910
713
725
675
3,500
1,900
3,450
4,500
2,400
2, 100
6,550
19, 000
7,500
1,200
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.
Workers involved in
stoppages
0.28
.32
.05
.15
.09
.47
1.43
.41
.37
.60
.26
.09
.10
. 10
.46
.27
.49
.61
.36
.27
.91
2.70
1.00
.15
1, 171
2,363
840
1, 981
2, 116
3,467
4,600
2,170
1,960
3, 100
111
41
77
77
500
160
235
575
110
140
475
600
70
40
In effect
during
month
(thousands)
189
93
100
105
530
210
310
675
250
240
565
1,000
875
400
Number of stoppages
Beginning
in
period
2,613
4,288
2,968
3,752
4,956
4,750
4,985
3,693
3,419
3,600
216
144
275
240
290
365
455
385
350
380
290
250
200
120
In effect
during
month
388
283
385
370
440
535
680
635
600
625
525
425
360
225
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
ndustrial production continued its sharp increase in December, rising to its highest point since April 1949.
The increase in output of durable goods accounted for the December rise. Preliminary data for January
ndicate a continuation of this trend.
PERCE NT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 A\fERAGE
400
400
ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION
• **••„
*
•
300
300
/
•
/
'*
:
;
/
DURABLE
MANUFACTURES
•
r\
*|
?+•
200
^^J^^
•
j
f
••* .
^
J^ <•'"*
X
-^
\
p^^
^-^—^.
NONDURABLE f>
••
•
-\x/"\ /
'^^vf><2*
""
y
200
lit
N
^"""^
*V\
K
Vy/^
MINERALS
t>
100
100
—
i
0
1939
t
40
i
41
i
42
i
43
t
44
i
45
i
46
i
47
t
48
I
I
1
l 1 I
1
1
1 1 1
,ff
"•
—
I
1
I
1
1
i
1
1
t
1
t
1
1
1
1
1948
1949
Total
industrial
production
Period
1943 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1 948 monthly average,
1949 monthly average 1 ..
_
Manufactures
Minerals
Total
Durable
goods
NondUfa*
ble goods
239
170
187
192
176
258
177
194
198
183
360
192
220
225
201
176
165
172
177
168
132
134
149
155
135
1948: December
192
199
231
173
156
1949: January
February
March
April
May. .
June. _ .
July
August
September _ _
October
November 1
December
191
189
184
179
174
169
161
170
174
166
173
179
198
196
193
184
179
176
168
177
184
176
178
187
227
225
223
212
201
194
185
193
199
175
180
202
175
173
168
162
161
161
154
165
172
177
177
175
149
149
136
148
145
133
123
129
119
112
141
131
182
192
210
177
127
1
I
1
1
1
1
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
1950: January
1
1950
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
J
1
49
_ _
_„
_
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
0
WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORS
< Steel
ingot production was scheduled at 94 percent of t he neu/ rated capacity during January. Electric
production continued to exceed levels of a year c go. 0\jtput of coal declined with decreased
(activity in the mines. Assembly of automobiles proceede d at p>eak rates until interrupted at the end of
1he month by a labor dispute.
[ 3ower
BILL ONS OF KILOWATT HOURS
7.0
Mil.LIONS OF TONS
3
ELECTRIC POWER
STEEL
2 JlsMtV f
6.0
s\ s
X*-*-**""""""""11"'' "*!
\
I948^\/
y
\ F*
1949^
Px "*X^
(\
/^^y\ /p^-*Cl/^y -^
/ '^^^^vlO^vPH//^^^^ ^
/
V
\J
/
\
I
1
5.0
1
0
I
J
F
1
M
A
1
M
1
J
1
J
I
1
A
S
U
1
1
O
I
0
N
J
O
MILL ONS OF SHORT TONS
3.0
1948^
«
^ n ^^Ti — A -A
1
0
J
If
'\J
1
M
K'I
1 M
111/ -
\
1
F
I
A
I
M
I
J
I
J
I
A
I
I
S
O
I
N
D
A
1
M
1
J
1
L-~'
I
J
'
/
1
A
I
S
120
N
f -A Al^ •
/ u 1948
80
-
1
1
0
N
O
A
• " -nfvw"^n^
rv^-i n \! A f "~*~ ' ^
/
U
r
I
M
CARS AND TRUCKS
i949
1,0
I
F
THOU SANDS
160
BITUMINOUS COAL
2.0
1949
/
1
/
D
\AVr
y
v
1 ir
i
L____=i
i
J
i
F
i
M
i
A
i
M
i
J
i
J
i
A
i
i
S
O
t
N
D
SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, DEPA RTMENT 0
St sel
Period
Thousands of
net tons
Weekly average:
1947
1948
1949.
Week ended:
1949: January
15___
22
29
February 5
1950: January
7
14
21
28
February 4__
___ _
Bituminous
_ _ _i
coal
(thousands of
short tons) 2
Cars and
trucks
(number)
93 0
94 1
81. 0
4 821
5 300
5, 500
2 058
1 948
1, 206
90 860
100, 670
120, 800
754
803
831
845
864
860
97. 3
97. 8
99. 3
100. 1
101. 1
100. 9
5, 562
5, 742
5, 729
5, 769
5, 810
5,778
1,770
1, 931
1,963
1, 910
1, 747
1.898
79, 377
96, 101
108, 281
108, 941
113,042
98, 972
1,772
1, 792
1, 810
1, 790
1, 775
92.9
94 0
95 0
93. 9
93. 1
5,695
6 029
6, 041
5, 972
1, 130
1, 237
1, 210
1,250
110,326
146, 956
150, 800
133, 466
(3) 120, 223
1 628
1 695
1, 493
1
8
Percent of
capacityl
Electric power,
by utilities
(millions of
kilowatt-hours)
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
1 Based on weekly net ton capacity of 1,749,928 for 1947, 1,802,476 for 1948, 1,843,516 for 1949,and 1, 906,268 for 1950.
Daily average for week,
Data became available after chart was prepared.
Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Automotive Reports.
2
8
u
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE
MANUFACTURES
Output of iron and steel rebounded again in December. Heavy demand for lumber increased the production to
record levels for winter output. The index for machinery recovered to the October rate; nonferrous metals also
advanced.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
25,0
250
LUMBER AND PRODUCTS
100 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I'l I
4O 42 44- 46 48
1947
1948
1949
MONTHLY AVERAGE
100 L I I I I I II
t
SEASONALLY
I I
t I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I i I 1 I
40 42 44 46 48
MACHINERY
ADJUSTED
1948
NONFERROUS METALS AND PRODUCTS
250
200
200
I 00
i i i i i i i i i
40 42 44 46 48
40 42 44 46 48
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
[1935-39= 100, seasonally adjusted]
Iron and
steel
1943 monthly average
1946 monthly average .
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average 1
. ..
1948: November
December. .
1949: Januarv
February
March
April
*
May_
June..
July
August
September
October
November
December 1
1
..
« ..
._ .
Machinery
208
150
195
208
187
129
131
143
145
130
443
240
276
277
234
267
157
187
193
160
145
143
276
277
187
184
228
232
233
219
204
177
156
178
179
102
144
198
129
123
129
126
126
123
115
126
133
133
147
152
268
262
252
240
232
225
217
215
224
226
217
226
183
185
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Nonferrous
metals and
products
Lumber and
products
224
223
Period
lw
145
133
127
141
157
164
163
171
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE
MANUFACTURES
In December the manufacture of textiles and products declined somewhat from the high November rate. Output
of petroleum and coal products increased sharply- chemicals slightly. Production of manufactured foods
continued to decline.
PERCE NT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS
PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS
300
300
200
200
%y
100
0
—v-.
100
0
J
1
f
"
I
40
|
|
|
|
v
A/
Sf
MONTHLY AVERAGE
| |
42 44 46 48
ll l t i 1 1 1 1 I 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 M ! II
1 1 ii 1 1 1 1 M i
1947
1948
1949
y
f
|
42
44
46
48
MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS
1 1 1 11 1 1 1 t 11
1
1 I 1t M t M I1
1947
1948
1949
CHEMICAL PRODUCTS
400
400
MONTHLY AVERAGE
SEASONALLY
MONTHLY Ik
AVERAGE 1
%
ADJUSTED
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
300
300
*"
20O
200
s*
•
•
-»—•*• '»" -
\^-
/
/
100
»OO
0
^~*
p*^/"
-^r~
1 I 1I ! 1 I 11 1 1
! 1 1 1 1 1 1
40
s
\
}
\
\
40 42
\
\
44
1
1
1
46 48
1 , 1 ,
M
1 I111I 1 1 1 1 I
1 11 I 1 11! 1 1 I
1948
1949
1947
o
I
|
40
I
I
42
I
I
44
t
1
46
1
48
M M 11 11 I 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II 1
i i i i L!J i i i i
1947
1948
1949
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
[1935-39—100, seasonally adjusted]
Textiles and
products
Period
1949: January
February
March.
April.«j
...
..
Mav
June
July
August
September
October
November
December *_ _ _ _ _ _
Manufactured food
products
Chemical
products
153
162
163
169
147
1943 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average l
1949 monthly average
1948: November
. __
December., _ ,
,__.„
Petroleum
and coal
products
_„„
,_ _
.
_ ..
__
185
173
193
218
209
145
150
157
159
162
384
236
251
254
240
164
156
227
231
159
158
257
257
160
157
142
129
123
126
120
140
155
169
174
171
228
221
213
209
207
202
198
203
208
198
204
213
160
162
162
162
162
165
161
166
167
165
159
156
257
250
245
237
234
231
226
230
236
240
243
245
1
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
13
NEW CONSTRUCTION
Total new construction in January was 16 percent higher than a year ago.
MILLIONS
OF DOLLARS
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2,OOO
2,000
1,500
1,500
1
1,000
1,000
I
i
i
j 11
j Ii 1
500
^
I
1939
1942
1944 1946
1947
A
1948
S
0
N
D
J
F
M
A M
J
J
A
S
O
N
O
J
F
M A
M
J
J
A
S
0
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars]
Private construction
Total new
construction
Period
1939 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average.
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average
1948: December
1949: January
February
March- ..
April
May
•
June
Julv
August
SeptemberOctober
November
December—
_
1950: Januarv 2
__
_ _ _«
_ _ _ _ _ _
526
1, 118
345
871
1, 194
1,565
1,611
1, 447
1,293
1, 172
1,267
1,370
1,576
1,735
1,833
1,903
1,922
1,879
1,767
1,612
1,500
Total
private
317
251
152
688
932
1,214
1, 172
1, 129
1,002
905
951
989
1,108
1,229
1,301
1,343
1,368
1,343
1,295
1,225
1, 140
1
Includes public residential construction.
* Preliminary estimate.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.
J
Residential
(nonfarm)
176
110
45
265
438
602
585
547
475
400
420
445
530
600
650
675
710
715
715
690
650
Other
141
141
107
422
493
612
586
582
527
505
531
544
578
629
651
668
658
628
580
535
490
Federal,
State, and
local *
208
867
193
184
262
351
439
318
291
267
316
381
468
506
532
560
554
536
472
387
360
NEW HOUSING STARTS
Housing starts maintained their high levels to the end of 1949. The total for the year was 1,019,000
compared with 931,300 in 1948.
THOUSANDS OF UNITS
THOUSANDS OF UNITS
125
125
50
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
New nonfarm units started
Month
1947
January
February
March
April
May
June
-
._
July
August
September
October
N ovember
December
_ _
.. .
Total
Monthly average
1949
1948
39, 300
42, 800
56, 000
67, 100
72, 900
77, 200
81, 100
86, 300
93, 800
94, 000
79, 700
58, 800
53, 500
50, 100
76, 400
99, 500
100, 300
97, 800
95, 000
86, 600
82, 200
73, 400
63, 600
52, 900
849, 000
931, 300
70, 750
77, 600
50, 000
50, 400
69, 400
88, 300
95, 400
95, 500
96, 100
99, 000
1 102, 900
1 1100, 000
93, 000
1
79, 000
1
1,019, 000
1
84, 900
1
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.
15
EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT
AND EQUIPMENT
Plant and equipment expenditures by nonagricultural business firms in 2nd half of 1949 were estimated
at 14 percent less than those of 2nd half of 1948. Anticipated expenditures for 1st quarter of I960
are likewise reported as 14 percent below those of 1st quarter 1949. Electric and gas utilities are
the only major business group anticipating higher expenditures this quarter than a year ago.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25
ANN UAL TOTALS
TRANSPORTATION AND
ELECTRIC AND GAS
S^UTILITIES
1939
1941
* NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL
1948
VARIATION.
SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal]
Total »
Period
Manufacturing
Mining
Transportation
Railroad
1939
1941
- _
__
1945
„
1947
1948 3
1949
1948* First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter 3
1950: First quarter 3
_
_
1
Excludes agriculture.
3
Commercial and miscellaneous
8
5,200
8, 190
6,630
16, 180
19, 230
17, 910
16, 680
19, 280
19, 320
21, 640
17, 840
18, 640
17, 440
17, 720
15, 280
1,930
3,400
3,210
7,460
8,340
7, 130
7,200
8,560
8,360
9,280
7,400
7,520
6,760
6,840
6,080
380
680
440
690
800
730
720
800
800
880
760
760
720
680
640
280
560
550
910
1,320
1,340
1,080
1,240
1,320
1,640
1,440
1,520
1,240
1, 160
880
Other
280
340
320
800
700
510
720
760
680
680
520
560
520
440
320
Electric and Commercial
gas utilities and miscellaneous *
480
710
630
1,900
2,680
3, 160
2,000
2,560
2,760
3,400
2,720
3, 120
3,160
3,600
2,960
1,850
2,490
1,480
4,430
5,390
5,040
4,960
5,360
5,440
5,760
5,040
5, 160
5,040
5, 000
4,440
composed of trade, service, finance, and communication.
Figures for fourth quarter of 1949 and first quarter of 1950 are based on anticipated capital expenditures.
NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultuial investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to
current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and
other data.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted).
NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES
New corporate issues showed a seasonal rise in the 4th quarter of the year but were far below the total
for the 4th quarter of 1948.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
3-0
3.0
2.5
2 0
1939
1946
1943
SOURCE: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION.
[Millions of dollars]
]3roposed uses of net proceed 3
Estimated
net proceeds
Period
New money
Total
1939 quarterly average
1943 quarterly average
1946 quarterly average
1947 quarterly average
1948 quarterly average
1949 quarterly average 2
1947: Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
1948* First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter
Second quarter—
Third quarter.
Fourth Quarter ^
.
_
_
81
77
820
43
35
529
852
Working
capital
39
42
291
296
431
194
448
210
869
469
257
261
_
_
-
--
-
1,689
1,617
1,748
1,330
1, 148
1,491
1,069
1,060
1,374
2,311
.
529
287
-
Plant and
equipment
Retirement
of debt and
stock »
884
2,000
692
1,654
192
347
490
310
1,769
1,817
1,352
2,054
1,511
1,493
1,087
1,874
1,091
918
593
402
314
415
260
325
265
180
1,056
2,311
1,968
152
353
89
183
206
343
119
377
807
1, 148
850
688
771
875
774
1,459
699
1,615
599
588
1
8
Includes small amount for other purposes.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission,
17
INVENTORIES AND SALES
Department store sales showed substantially more than the usual seasonal rise in December. Manufacturers'
inventories, after allowance for seasonal variation, rose slightly after 10 successive months of decline.
BILL IONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
RETAIL
WHOLESALE
20
20
MONTHLY AVERAGE
/; 7
INVEh T( >RIES
1 0
V*
0
S/!
^2^fg#*
. .
1 1 I I l I I I 1
40
42
44
46
L
1 0
r^~
i i i ni ii i i t
48
1947
II
0
I I I I 1 1 I II
1948
1 11 111111 11
1 l i i JL l J J 1
40
1949
42
44
46
48
—
•"•
'
i- -
.
*
L
1 M 11 1 1 1 1 1 1
1947
1948
i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i ii
1949
PERCE IT OF 1935-1939 AVERAGE
BILL IONS OF DOLLAR'S
DEPARTMENT STORES
MANUFACTURERS
4O
.»••••••*•
**
..
.i
INVE Ml ORIES
400
MONTHLY AVERAGE
INVE NT ORIES
V
30
\
\
>•
i
,.--
*'-".....
/f L "S
300
.••*
/
20
1 0
0
. /r* /
x^N
^-XV^-N^S
~wv
/
^^JL
'••~s
jfi
1 OO
t i i | | j \ }|
42
.....
<?" •••..„...••"•.
il\ TC)RIES
200
L ES
/
40
«^^^^«i^
J /•••'••'
-
44
46
1 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
48
1947
M , M I , . . ..
1948
! 1 M
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0
I
40
1949
1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 11
1 I I 1 1 I L_l
42
44
46
48
i i11 111 i 11i
1947
1948
r
;
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FE DERAL RES R V E SYSTEM
Inventories
l
Sales 2
Inventories
1
Manufacturers
Sales
a
Inventories
Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
)
$
_
3
5
?
35
. _
3
5: November
December
3: January
February
March... _
April.-. .
May
June
July
..
August
September
October 5
November
December 5
.
._
_ ._
.
3, 175
3,684
4,638
6,665
8,653
9,511
9,205
9,714
9,511
9,464
9,479
9,293
9,330
9, 153
9,002
9,091
9,061
9,186
9,137
9, 113
9, 149
2,505
4,273
4,983
6,601
7,754
8,355
7,502
8,236
8, 158
7,723
7,680
7,890
7,422
7,539
7,718
7,158
7,522
7,518
7, 120
7,515
7,216
5,532
7,361
7,543
11,226
13, 221
14, 969
14, 285
15, 027
14, 969
14, 659
14, 479
14, 700
14, 458
14, 139
14, 182
13, 862
13, 932
14, 355
14, 475
14, 339
13, 839
3,504
5,277
6,315
8,358
9,909
10, 837
10, 682
10, 763
10, 987
10, 611
10, 706
10, 724
10, 814
10, 759
10, 684
10, 549
10, 669
10, 856
10, 678
10, 630
10, 503
1
Sales 3
4
11,465
20, 098
18, 390
24, 818
29, 818
34, 066
32, 574
33, 810
34, 066
34, 409
34, 408
34, 223
34, 018
33, 565
33, 250
32, 367
31, 638
31, 060
30, 754
30, 500
30, 700
1
Book value, end of period.
2
Monthly average for year and total for month.
1
Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for month and retail book value of inventories, end
4
All dollar figures, except for retail sales, have been revised and do not agree with data published prior to
1
Preliminary estimates.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal^Reserve System,
1949
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Retail
Wholesale
Period
1 I1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M
5, 100
12, 822
12, 883
12, 841
17, 076
18, 998
17, 792
19, 288
19, 065
17, 880
18,175
18, 451
17, 643
17, 741
17, 990
17, 114
18, 945
18, 866
16, 805
17, 300
16, 600
of period.
October 1949.
Department stores
Inventories 3 j
Sales 3
1935-39=100, seasonally
adjusted
102
106
155
168
166
207
213
264
255
286
291
302
270
285
295
290
288
303
278
295
276
281
283
277
280
294
273
292
265
285
256
280
253
283
264
289
270
276
273
276
271
294
MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
Exports rose sharply in December, breaking the almost continuous decline of previous months, but remained
lower than in any month during the first half of the year. Imports continued to rise, but at a slower rate than
any of the preceding four months.
M I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS
M I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS
1,600
1,400
1,600
-
-
L400
1,200
1,200
1,000 -
- 1,000
800
800
600 -
600
400
400
200 -
200
1936-38
1943
1946
1947
1948
*
RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, AND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AREAS.
** RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars]
Exports i
Period
1949 1 January
February
March
April . .
M ay -----June July
August .
September
October . _.
November
December
247
1,080
849
1,278
1,051
994
--
-
.
-
_
-_.
Excess of
exports
-
_---
«
-
__
207
282
410
478
594
552
40
798
439
801
457
442
820
1,285
1936—38 monthly average
1943 monthly average 1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average.
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average
1948: November.
December. - .
Imports s
554
720
266
565
1,094
1,032
1, 159
1,148
1,077
1, 104
897
881
904
849
836
943
590
568
632
534
539
527
456
491
530
559
593
605
504
464
527
614
538
578
441
390
374
290
243
338
1
1
Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas.
Recorded general merchandise imports.
Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy,
19
PURCHASING POWER
NATIONAL INCOME
The drop In national income from 3rd to 4th quarter of 1949 was due largely to a fall in corporate
profits plus inventory valuation adjustment, although proprietors' income also fell somewhat.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
250
CORPORATE PROFITS AND
:• INVENTORY VALUATION :
:;:;:;x: ADJUSTMENTS :•.:;:
200
1947
1948
1949
1947
I960
PREUMINftRY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (except as noted).
[Billions of dollars]
Total
national
income
Period
1939
1944
1946
1947_
1948 ...
1949 l
72.5
183.8
179.6
201.7
226.2
223.2
Compensation of
employees
47.8
121.2
117.0
127.6
140.3
142. 2
Corporate profits and inventory
valuation adjustment
Proprietors'
and rental
income
Net interest
14.7
35.5
41.3
45. 1
49.5
45. 7
4.2
3. 1
3.0
3.4
3.8
4.3
Total
5.8
24.0
18.3
25. 6
32. 6
30.9
Profits
before
taxes
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
6.5
243
23.6
31.6
34.8
28.2
-0.7
-.3
-5.3
-6.0
-2.2
-2.7
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter..l
Fourth quarter
1
215. 1
224. 9
230.4
234.3
... .
135. 1
137.7
143.3
144.9
48. 0
50.4
49.9
49.7
3.6
3.7
3.9
4. 1
28.5
33.0
33.3
35.7
33.0
35.0
36.6
34.5
-4.5
-2.0
-3.3
+ 1.2
226.3
223.5
223. 5
219.3
142. 5
141.8
142.2
142. 3
47.8
46.5
44.5
44.0
4.2
4.3
4.3
4.4
31.8
30.9
32. 4
28.6
29.4
26.4
28.9
28.0
+ 2.3
+4.5
+ 3. 5
+.6
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).
CORPORATE PROFITS
Corporate profits during 3rd quarter of 1949 rose substantially from 2nd quarter levels. The rebound
in manufacturing activity and the peak output of automobiles were largely responsible. The 4th
quarter level was affected by the work stoppages in steel and coal.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
40
40
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
PROFITS BEFORE TAXES
V
1947
1948
I960
1949
SOURCE! DEPARTMENT OF C O M M E R C E {EXCEPT AS NOTED)
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Corporate
profits
before taxes
Period
1929
1939
1944
1946
1947
1948
1949 *
-
_
_
9.8
6.5
24. 3
23.6
31.6
34.8
28. 2
Corporate
tax
liability
1.4
1.5
13. 5
9.6
12.5
13. 6
11.2
Corporate profits after taxes
Total
8.4
5.0
10.8
13.9
19. 1
21.2
17.0
Dividend
payments
5.8
3.8
4.7
5.8
7.0
7.9
8. 4
Undistributed
profits
2.6
1.2
6. 1
8.1
12. 1
13.2
8.6
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
33.0
35.0
36.6
34.5
12.8
13. 7
14.4
13. 6
20.2
21.3
22.2
20.9
7.6
7.7
7.9
8.3
12.6
13.6
14.3
12.6
9.5
11.5
17.9
8.4
29.4
1949: First quarter
7.4
8.4
10.6
15.8
26.4
Second quarter
9. 1
8.4
11. 4
17.5
28.9
Third quarter l
11.2
8.3
16.8
8. 5
28.0
Fourth quarter
1
Estimates by Council of Economic Advisers; based on incomplete data.
NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment, See p. 20 for profits before
taxes and inventory valuation adjustment.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).
01
PERSONAL INCOME
According to revised estimates for the entire year 1949, personal income was higher in December than any
other month except January. Salaries and wages and dividends increased from November to December so
that there was a net increase of $2 billion (annual rate) in total personal income.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
250
200
A
>V x > * VVVvV.'V^» /'*'yV">YKWW>'>^)f jOOaV
/.-m PROPRIETORS AND RENTAL
150
J
F
M A M
J
I960
SOURCE:
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Period
1939
1944
1947
1948.
1949 l
Total
personal
income
72. 6
165. 9
193.5
211.9
209.8
Salaries, wages, Proprietors' Dividends
and other
and rental and personal
labor income
income
interest
45.7
116.2
122.0
135. 1
135. 6
14.7
35.5
45. 1
49.5
44.8
9.2
10.6
14.8
16.2
17.4
Transfer
payments
3.0
3.6
11.7
11. 1
12.2
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: November
December
1949: January
February
March
April
May
JuneJuly
August September
October .
November l
December
1
216.6
217.0
214.6
211. 3
210. 2
210. 5
210. 2
209.4
207. 2
209. 1
208. 3
207. 0
209. 4
211.5
139.5
139. 1
137.9
136. 1
134. 4
136.0
135. 8
135.0
135. 1
135. 5
135.8
134.8
134.7
136. 3
49.8
50.3
48.5
46.6
46.2
45.0
45. 2
45. 1
42.8
43.9
42.7
42.9
44.9
43.4
16.9
16.9
17.0
17.0
17.0
17. 1
17.0
17. 0
16. 9
17. 1
17. 2
17. 3
17.4
19. 1
10.4
10.7
11.2
11. 6
12.6
12.4
12.2
12.3
12.4
12.6
12.6
12.0
12.4
12.7
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Data for all of 1949 have been revised in this issue of the Economic Indicators and do not agree
with present estimates included in national income. Revised estimates of national income and all of its components will appear in the March issue of the Indicators. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because
of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING
Consumer expenditures in 4th quarter of 1949 were $ 178 billion (annual rate), a drop of only
$ 3 billion from the 4th quarter of 1948. During the same period, personal disposable income
dropped $5 billion and saving $2 billion.
B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
250
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY
ADJUSTED
200
200
150
1 50
DISPOSABLE
PERSONAL INCOME*
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
I
2
I960
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED).
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Disposable
personal
income *
Period
1939.
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948 2
1949
_
...
.
..
..
_
........
-_
• _
70.2
75. 7
92. 0
116.2
131. 6
147.0
151. 1
158. 1
172. 0
190.8
192. 9
Less: Personal
consumption
expenditures
Equals: Personal saving
67.5
72. 1
82.3
90. 8
101. 6
111. 6
123. 1
147.8
166. 9
178. 8
178. 5
2.7
3. 7
9.8
25. 4
30. 0
35. 4
28.0
10. 3
5. 1
12. 0
14. 4
Annual J"ates, seasonally adjusted
1948" First quarter . . . .. . . . _.Second quarter
.
..
Third quarter. ..
.
Fourth quarter
1949* First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter 2
181. 9
189. 6
195. 2
196. 2
194. 9
193. 8
191. 9
191. 1
175.2
178. 7
180. 3
180. 9
178. 6
178. 9
178. 5
178.0
6. 7
10. 8
15.0
15. 3
16.3
14. 8
13.3
13. 1
1
2
Income less taxes.
Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce,
23
PER CAPITA INCOME*
Per capita disposable income, in terms of real purchasing power, has declined very slowly but steadily
since the first quarter of 1949.
400
940
1941
1942
PERSONAL INCOME LESS TfiXES
1943
1944
1945
1946
194?
1948
1949**
"PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR (EXCEPT AS NOTED).
Per capita disposable personal
income *
Current
1948 dollars *
dollars
$536
$923
574
981
691
1,125
867
1,262
970
1,314
1,065
1,405
1,082
1,389
1, 119
1,342
1,282
1, 194
1,302
1,302
1,293
1,309
Period
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948 4
1949
_.
_
_
_
Annual rates, seasonally
adjusted
1948: First quarter . . ...
Second quarter
_.
Third quarter _ .
_.
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter
Second quarter - _
Third quarter
Fourth quarter 4
.
1
8
-
1,248
1,296
1,328
1,328
1,314
1,301
1,283
1.271
1,273
1,301
1,305
1,319
1,325
1,314
1,300
1,294
Consumers*
price index1
1948=100
58. 1
58.5
61.4
68.7
73.8
75.8
77.9
83.4
93.1
100.0
98.8
Not adjusted
for seasonal
variation
98.0
99.6
101.8
100.7
99.2
99.0
98.7
98.2
a
Income less taxes.
Current dollars divided by the consumers' price index on the base 1948=100.
The consumers' price index has been roughly adjusted to take account of the understatement from
December 1941-February 1947. This adjustment is4 in line with the report of the Mitchell Committee. The
unadjusted index will be found on page 2.
Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.
AVERAGE HOURLY EAEINW
G8 - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
Gross hourly earnings increased significantly in both durable and nondurable manufacturing in December.
Nondurable manufacturing at $1.34 set a new pecik.
OOLLA RS
1.60
PER HOUR
DOLL/\RS PER HOUR
1.50
DURA'BLE MANUFACTURING
NONDURABLE
MANUFACTURING
1.40
1.50
\/
1948
1.40
J
^^"
1.30
f
CURRENT
1.20
DOLLARS*
^
1
1.30
-J^
'
«
^
^ \
DOLLARS
S^
CURRENT
DOLLARS
1.10
1.20
i i | \ i 1 i i ii i
1 t I 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 t
1I 1 I 111 I 1I 1
1947
0
1948
1949
| 1 I 1I I 1 1 1 l l
0
1950
1.30
2.10
1949
1 1 I1t 11 M 1 1
1950
1.20
j^z>
1.90
1 1 1 1 l 1 1 11 1 1
1948
RETAIL TRADE
BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
2.00
I l i 1 | 1| | | | |
1947
1 1 1 I ! 1 I 1 1 I 1
1948 DOLLARS*
^^^^S-
\
1.00
_r-,|MA j*^
1948 DOLLARS*/"]/
^•••^
I.OO
1.80
* * / ^ X CURRENT
CURRENT DOLLAF S
S****''^
DOLLARS
^
.90
1.70
ol
1 I I 1 1 I !!
1 1 I
11 LJJ.J 1 1 1 1 J_
1 t I 11 11I 1 I 1
I 1 l I 11I i ( i 1
1948
1949
1950
1947
0
1 ! t 1 1 i t 1 1 ! 1
I 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 I
1947
II
I 1l 1 11 l 1 M 1
1948
1949
I i I I 1 1 I Ii I 1
1950
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
[Selected industries
All manufacturing
Durable goods manufacturing
Nondurable goods
manufacturing
Building construction
Retail trade
Period
Current
dollars
1939 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average - - -~
1948 monthly average 4
1949 monthly average
__
1948" November
December
>
1949 1 January
• 'February.
March ...
April
May
June
July
August
September
- - _
October * 4
November 4
December
1
2
8
4
$0. 633
.961
1.084
1.237
1.350
1.402
1.397
1.400
1.405
1.401
1.400
1.401
1.401
1.405
1.408
1.399
1.407
1.392
1.391
1.412
1948
dollars 2
$1. 090
1.302
1.300
1.329
1.350
1. 419
1.389
1.399
1.408
1.419
1.414
1.414
1.418
1.418
1.431
1.419
1. 420
1.415
1.412
1.444
Current
dollars
1948
dollars 2
(3)
(3)
(3)
$1. 292
1.410
1. 469
1. 463
1.466
1.467
1.466
1.464
1.467
1.467
1.475
1.477
1.473
1.482
1.458
1.454
1. 479
Production and related workers.
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on base 1948= 100.
Not available.
Preliminary estimates.
Source: Department of Labor.
(3)
(3)
(3)
$1. 388
1.410
1. 487
1.454
1.465
1.470
1.485
1.480
1. 480
1. 485
1.488
1. 501
1.494
1.495
1.482
1. 476
1. 512
Current
dollars
3
(3)
(3)
()
$1. 171
1.278
1. 326
1. 317
1.319
1.327
1.323
1.323
1.321
1.323
1. 324
1. 332
1. 319
1. 328
1.327
1. 327
1.339
1948
dollars 2
(3)
(3)
(3)
$1. 258
1.278
1. 343
1.309
1.318
1.330
1.340
1.336
1.333
1. 339
1.336
1.354
1.338
1.340
1.349
1. 347
1.369
Current
dollars
(3)
(3)
3
(3)
()
$1. 848
(3)
1.906
1.915
1.918
1. 930
1. 933
1. 934
1. 930
1.924
1.922
1.932
1.938
1. 944
1. 948
(3)
1948
dollars 2
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
$1. 848
(3)
1.895
1.913
1.922
1.955
1.953
1.952
1.953
1.941
1.953
1.959
1.956
1.976
1.978
(3)
Current
dollars
3
(3)
(8)
()
$1. 009
1.088
(3)
1. 108
1.098
1. 132
1. 123
1. 121
1. 127
1. 141
1. 147
1. 148
1. 146
1. 150
1. 142
1. 140
(3)
1948
dollars 2
P)
8
$1. 084
1.088
(8)
1. 101
1.097
1. 134
1. 138
1. 132
1. 137
1. 155
1. 157
1. 169
1.162
1. 160
1. 161
1. 157
(3)
See note 8 to table on page 24.
25
AVERAGE WEEKLY EAFiNINfGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
Average weekly earnings in December reached an a 11 time tiigh for manufacturing as a whole. Durable
manufacturing earnings of $59.31 showed the grea Jest incr ease.
DOLLARS PER WEEK
DOLL ARS
65
60
55
1948
DOLLARS
7*^^ CURRENT
55
/*^
/o^r
WEEK
NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING
DURABLE MANUFACTURING
60
PER
<\*^f
!948
DOLLARS*
<^A
^J
^ ^
50
DOLLARS
50
45
45
«^-X/%* CURRENT
DOLLARS
40
0
i 1 1 1 1 1 i i t i i i 1 1 1 L 1 LU_I i I
1947
1948
1 1 LI I 1 1 1 1 i
0
i I I 1 1 1i I I I I
| f | |I1 I j i |i
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ) 1 1
i . . i . 1 1. 1 ,7
1947
1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 i i .!
1949
1948
1949
1950
1950
50
80
RETAIL TRADE
BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
. f^
75
70
1948
DOLLARS*
^ 1948 DOLLARS*
^ ^^"^^i
45
-^^^"^
'
40
/""'"'^f
"•""""^^CURRENT DOLLARS
65
35
"^CURRENT
[ OLLARS
60
30
0 ^n i i 1 i . i . I
'947
SOURCE
i i i i i 1 i i i i i
DEPARTMENT
1948
I
i iI i I 1 Ii ti i
1949
I
""""""
i i i i i 1 i i i tt
0
i
1 1 1 L i 1 1 1 1 1
1950
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1947
1 1 1 1 i.J.JJj 1 1 1
1948
1949
OF LABOR
COUNCIL
1 I I I i 1 I I I t ii
1950
OF
ECONOMIC
ADVISORS
[Selected industries J]
All manufacturing
Durable goods manufacturing
Nondurable goods
manufacturing
Building construction
Retail trade
Period
Current
dollars
1948
dollars 2
Current
dollars
1948
dollars a
Current
dollars
1948
dollars 2
Current
dollars
3
1 939 monthly average
$23. 86
$41. 07
(3)
(3)
(8)
(3)
8
3
1943 monthly average
43. 14
58.46
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
1946 monthly average
43. 74
52.45
(3)
(3)
()
()
1947 monthly average .
$50.44
49. 97
53. 67
$52. 46
$56. 35
$46. 96
()
1948 monthly average 4 „.
$68. 85
54, 14
54. 14
50.61
50. 61
57. 11
57. 11
(3)
1949 monthly average .
52. 13
54. 91
51.49
55. 59
57.98
58. 70
1948: November
__
69.39
51. 32
55.60
55.27
58.76
51.63
59. 11
72.33
December
51.79
56. 14
51. 84
56.08
59.67
59. 61
70.88
1949: January
51.45
55. 50
55. 61
58.83
58.95
51.35
70.53
February
52.01
55. 20
55. 93
58.49
59,26
51. 33
March
69. 83
54. 74
51.59
58.41
55. 29
57. 83
51.07
70.33
April
50. 12
53.80
54. 29
57. 21
49. 67
57.73
51.02
May_ .
„„
71.81
54.08
54. 74
57. 21
50.41
57.90
71.44
51.43
June.
55.00
50.97
54.51
57. 82
58.35
July
52.39
54.63
71. 28
55. 52
57.31
58.24
51.55
.52. 04
71.95
54.70
55.48
57.89
August
51.31
58.71
53.07
55.72
70.69
September
52, 59
59.22
58.69
56.23
53. 40
71. 80
October 4 4
55. 26
56. 16
58.17
52. 55
59. 12
52, 81
70. 27
November4
__
„_ _ _
54. 53
52. 02
55. 36
57. 00
57.87
53.02
54. 21
December
56. 20
57.46
60. 64
-59. 31
(3)
1
For production and related workers.
3
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1948= = 100. See note 3 to table on page 24.
8
Not available.
4
Preliminary estimates.
Source: Department of Labor.
1948
dollars2
3
(3 ).
(3)
(3)
()
$68. 85
(3)
68. 98
72.26
71.02
71.46
70.54
70.97
72.68
72.09
72.44
72.97
71.33
72. 97
71.34
(3)
Current
dollars
1948
dollars 2
(3)
$40. 66
43. 85
(3)
43. 99
44.36
45.51
45. 14
44.95
45.31
45.98
46.45
46. 95
46. 87
46.58
46. 14
45.71
(3)
8.
$43. 67
43. 85
(3),
43. 73
44. 32
45.60
45.73
45. 40
45.72
46.54
46. 87
47.81
47.54
47.00
46.89
46.41
(3)
FARM INCOME
Farmers' cash receipts decreased from November to December reflecting some reduction in prices
received as well as the seasonal decrease in volume of marketings.
IILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4
1939 40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47-
48
INCLUDES CASH FARM INCOME FROM MARKETING AND GOVERNMENT PAYMENTS.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Period
Farm income Prices paid by Farm income
farmers (incl.
(millions of
(millions of
interest, taxes,
currentl
and wage rates) 1948 dollars) 3
dollars)
1948=1002
1939 monthly average
724
47
1941 monthly average
981
51
1942 monthly average
1, 340
59
1944 monthly average
1, 765
70
1945 monthly average
1 857
73
1946 monthly average
2 110
80
1947 monthly average
..
-_
2 542
93
1948 monthly average 4 _~
2 609
100
1949 monthly average
2 309
97
1948: November
. .
3 314
100
December
-«
2 740
99
1949: January
;
2 383
99
February
•
97
1, 783
March
98
1 973
April
1, 850
98
May .
. .
1 944
98
' June
_
2,053
97
July
_
2 177
97
August-*
.
96
2,417
September
96
2 608
October 4
__
3 139
95
November
3 050
95
December 4
__
95
2,326
1
Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments.
* Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1948=100.
3
Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, taxes, and wage
1948=100.
4
Preliminary estimates.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
1 540
1 924
2, 271
2,521
2 544
2 638
2, 733
2, 609
2, 380
3 314
2 768
2, 407
1, 838
2, 013
1,888
1, 984
2, 116
2, 244
2, 518
2,717
3,304
3,211
2,448
rates,
27
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
According to preliminary estimates, purchases of durable goods and services reached a new high in
4 t h quarter of 1949. Nondurable goods continued the decline started the first part of this year,
and were 8 percent below 4th quarter of 1948.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2OO
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
200
I 50
100
I 00
•PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.
SOURCE:
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED).
[Billions of dollars]
Personal consumption expenditures
Period
Nondurable
goods
Total
1939..
1944..
1946..
1947..
1948^.
19491
67.5
111. 6
147.8
166. 9
178. 8
178.5
35.3
67. 1
86.8
96.2
102. 2
97.7
Durable
goods
6.7
7.1
16.5
22.0
23.5
24.8
Services
25.5
37.4
44.5
48.8
53.1
56.0
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1948: First quarter
Second quarter.,
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1949: First quarter .
Second quarter Third quarter. .
Fourth quarter *
1
.
175.2
178. 7
180.3
180.9
„
_
__ _ _ _ _ « __
101.2
102.4
101.8
103.3
22.7
23. 8
24.8
22.9
51.3
52.5
53.7
54.8
178.6
178.9
178. 5
178.0
100. 1
99.3
96.5
95. 0
23. 1
23.8
25.8
26.5
55.4
55.9
56.2
56.5
Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
CONSUMER CREDIT
With a large seasonal rise in instalment credit, chiefly other than automobile, and in charge accounts,
total consumer credit in December increased more than during the corresponding period of 1948.
B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS
2 0
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2 0
NSTALMENT CREDIT
1939
1943
1946
1947
1948
END OF YEAR
1947
1948
END OF MONTH
PRELIMINARr ESTIMATE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE : BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
[Millions of dollars]
Total
consumer
credit
outstanding
End of period
1939
1943
1946
1947
_
1948 2
1949
1948 1 November _
December
1949: January
February
March - »_
April «..
May
June
July
August September
October. _
November 2
December
_
__
-
_
__
7,969
5,378
10, 191
13, 673
16, 319
18, 788
15, 739
16, 319
15, 748
15, 325
15, 335
15, 595
15, 843
16, 124
16, 198
16, 453
16, 801
17, 221
17, 810
18, 788
Instalment credit
Total
4,424
2,001
4,000
6,434
8,600
10, 912
8,322
8, 600
8,424
8,339
8,429
8,630
8,888
9, 123
9,335
9,622
9,897
10, 164
10, 439
10, 912
Automobile
sale
credit
Other sale
credit and
loans
1,267
175
544
1, 151
1, 961
3, 149
1, 922
1,961
1,965
1,996
2, 105
2,241
2,386
2, 499
2,610
2,761
2,876
2,986
3,085
3, 149
3,157
1,826
3,456
5,283
6,639
7,763
6,400
6,639
6,459
6,343
6,324
6,389
6,502
6,624
6,725
6,861
7,021
7, 178
7,354
7, 763
Charge
accounts
1,544
1,498
3,054
3,612
3, 854'
3,909
3,557
3,854
3,457
3,169
3, 121
3,232
3,235
3,274
3, 123
3,064
3, 123
3, 197
3,454
3, 909
Other
consumer
credit l
2,001
1,879
3, 137
3,627
3,865
3,967
3,860
3,865
3,867
3,817
3,785
3,733
3,720
3,727
3,740
3,767
3,781
3,860
3,917
3,967
1
Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit.
* Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Boar4 of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
29
MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS
Since July commercial bank loans have risen steadily, reaching at the end of December a figure about
$800 million larger than at the end of 1948.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
125
125
100
100
50
25
1929
1939
1945
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
v
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
Q
N
D
END OF YEAR
*PREUM.NARY
SOURCE: Boi
[Billions of dollars, all commercial banks]
"!?•»•» A f^f
•v^n-H.lf^A
Jbna of period
1929 ..
_
1939
^
1945
_
._1947
_
_
—
1948
-.
19491
1948: November
December..
.
1949: January
.
February
„.
March
April -«.«.
May
June
.
.».«-»..
July
August
.
..
.
September _,
,
,.
October
'November1
December
1
Investments
Total
loans and
investments
Bank loans
49.5
40.7
124.0
116.3
114.3
120.8
114.2
114.3
114.5
113.4
112.5
112.5
113.4
113. 7
114. 7
117. 9
118.8
119. 8
120. 2
120.8
36.0
17.2
26. 1
38.1
42.5
43.3
42.3
42.5
42.4
42. 0
42.4
41.3
40.9
41.2
40.5
41.2
41. 8
41. 9
42. 9
43.3
Total
Preliminary estimates,
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
13.5
23.4
97.9
78.2
71.8
77. 5
71.9
71.8
72.0
71.4
70. 1
71.2
72.6
72. 5
74.2
76.7
77.0
77.9
77. 3
77.5
U.S.
Government
securities
4.8
16.3
90.6
69.2
62.6
67.3
62.8
62.6
63.0
62. 2
60.9
62.0
63.2
63. 0
64. 4
66. 7
66. 8
67. 7
67. 1
67.3
Other
securities
8. 7
7. 1
7.3
9. 0
9.2
10. 2
9. 1
9.2
9. 1
9. 1
9.2
9,2
9,3
9, 5
9.8
10,0
10, 2
10.2
10. 2
10.2
MONEY SUPPLY
The money supply increased $1.5 billion in December, exceeding the 1948 year-end total by $| billion.
B I L L I O N S OF DO.LLARS
200
B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS
200
TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY
( EXCLUDING U.S.GOVT. DEPOSITS)
I 75
100
25
25
1939
1943
M
1946 1947
J
J
A
S 0
ft M
N
1947
END OF YEAR
J
J
A
S
0
N
D
J
F
M A
1948
M
J
J
A
S
0
1949
END OF MONTH
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Total money
supply
End of period
1939
1943
1946
1947
1948-3
.
1949
1948: November
.
December 1949: January.
February
March
April «
*-i«,j
May
JuneJuly .
August
September
October
November 3
December
__
.
-
---
.
-
.
-
...
63.3
112.4
164.0
170.0
169. 1
170. 1
168. 1
169. 1
168.2
166. 3
164.2
165.5
165.7
165.6
166. 3
166.9
166. 6
168.0
168. 6
170. 1
Currency
outside
banks
6.4
18.8
26.7
26.5
26. 1
25.0
25.9
26. 1
25.2
25. 1
25.1
24.9
25.0
25.0
24.9
25. 1
24. 9
24. 9
25. 1
25.0
Adjusted
demand
deposits *
29.8
60.8
83.3
87. 1
85.5
86. 7
85.2
85.5
85.4
83.4
81.1
82.4
82.6
82.2
83.1
83.4
83.3
84. 6
85. 5
86. 7
Time
deposits a
27. 1
32.7
54.0
56.4
57.5
58.4
57.0
57.5
57.6
57.8
58.0
58. 1
58.2
58.4
58.4
58.3
58.4
58.4
58.0
58.4
1
Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection.
2
Includes deposits in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System.
3
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
31
FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM
AMD PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC
The cash deficit of about $1.5 billion for the 4th quarter compares with a deficit of about
$0.9 billion for the same quarter of 1948.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
I6
16
1 2
1946
2
1947
2
1948 3
1949 3
EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS
EXCESS OF CASH PAYMENTS
1947
1946
3
*
* 1948
'
CALENDAR
1949
YEARS
SOURCE: BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars]
Federal cash
receipts from
the public *
Calendar years
Federal cash
payments to
the public -1
Excess of receipts (+) or
payments (— )
Calendar year total:
+ 54
41, 372
41, 426
1946
38, 584
+ 5,695
1947
_
_. .
44, 279
36, 954
44, 920
+ 7,967
1948
.
-1,290
42, 636
41, 346
1949 2
Quarterly total, not adjusted for seasonal:
14, 345
9, 163
+ 5, 182
1947: First quarter «
_
_
-781
9, 847
10, 628
Second quarter
. __
10, 257
—37
Third quarter
10, 220
+ 1,331
8, 536
Fourth quarter
9, 869
+ 6,400
8,637
15, 037
1948: First quarter
+ 1,205
9,033
Second quarter
10, 238
+ 1, 287
Third quarter
__.
8,798
10, 085
-925
9, 560
10, 486
Fourth quarter
_ ... .
9, 964
13, 122
+ 3, 158
1949: First quarter
.
8,814
11, 389
Second quarter
—2, 575
2
-384
10, 527
Third quarter
...
10, 143
2
- 1, 489
10, 756
Fourth quarter.
___
_ „
9,267
1
Payments of refunds of Government receipts are now reported as deductions from total receipts; pre*
viously, they were reported as expenditures.
a Preliminary estimates based on incomplete data.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding,
Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget.
o
32
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