Full text of Economic Indicators : December 1993
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103d Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators DECEMBER 1993 (Includes data available as of December 27, 1993) Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1993 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) DAVID R. OBEY, Wisconsin, Chairman PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana) FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California) KWEISI MFUME (Maryland) RON WYDEN (Oregon) MICHAEL A. ANDREWS (Texas) RICHARD K. ARMEY (Texas) JIM SAXTON (New Jersey) CHRISTOPHER C. COX (California) JIM RAMSTAD (Minnesota) SENATE EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico) CHARLES S. ROBB (Virginia) BYRON L. DORGAN (North Dakota) BARBARA BOXER (California) WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) CONNIE MACK (Florida) LARRY E. CRAIG (Idaho) ROBERT F. BENNETT (Utah) RICK MC.GAHEY, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS LAURA D. TYSON, Chair ALAN S. BLINDER, Member JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts prepared by the Art Production Section, Design and Graphics Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.75 a single copy ($3.44 foreign), or by subscription at $30.00 per year ($37.50 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 For sale by the U.S. Government Printing Office Superintendent of Documents, Mail Stop: SSOP, Washington, DC 20402-9328 ISBN 0-16-043365-7 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT In the third quarter of 1993, according to revised estimates, current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) rose 4.4 percent (annual rate), real GDP (GDP in 1987 dollars) rose 2.9 percent, and the implicit price deflator rose 1.6 percent. BILLION S OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE] BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE] 6,800 6,800 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 6,400 6,400 6,000 S 6,000 ^ ' 5,600 GDP IN CURRENT DOLLARS \ 5,200 5,600 ^^ j -^ f 5,200 , —• "" \^ r-c 4,800 4,400 x x--' 4,000 rx „-•-' ^ f 4,800 — 4,400 GDP IN 1987 DOLLARS "^ 4,000 X X 3,600 3,600 ^ / 3,200 2,800 3,200 1 I I 1982 i I I 1983 I I i 1984 111 1 1985 1 1 1986 I I I 1987 I I I 1988 i I I 1989 I I I 1990 I I i 1991 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE i I I 1992 I I I 1993 2,800 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1989: 1990: 1991- IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV I II ra IV 1992- I II III IV 1993: I II III ' 1 Gross domestic product 4,038.7 4,268.6 4,539.9 4,900.4 5,250.8 5,546.1 5,722.9 6,038.5 3,195.1 3,547.3 3,869.1 4,140.5 4,336.6 4,683.0 5,044.6 5,344.8 5,597.9 5,631.7 5,697.7 5,758.6 5,803.7 5,908.7 5,991.4 6,059.5 6,194.4 6,261.6 6,327.6 6,395.9 Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment 2,667.4 2,850.6 3,052.2 3,296.1 3,523.1 3,761.2 3,906.4 4,139.9 2,128.7 2,346.8 2,526.4 2,739.8 2,923.1 3,124.6 3,398.2 3,599.1 3,836.6 3,843.6 3,887.8 3,929.8 3,964.1 4,046.5 4,099.9 4,157.1 4,256.2 4,296.2 4,359.9 4,419.1 714.5 717.6 749.3 793.6 832.3 808.9 736.9 796.5 464.2 614.8 722.8 737.0 697.1 800.2 814.8 825.2 756.4 729.1 721.5 744.5 752.4 750.8 799.7 802.2 833.3 874.1 874.1 884.0 Federal Net exports 1156 -132.5 143 1 - 108.0 -79.7 71 4 -19.6 -29.6 — 29.5 -71.8 -107.1 -135.5 -133.2 - 143.2 -106.0 -73.9 -71.6 340 -11.5 -19.8 -13.0 -7.0 -33.9 -38.8 -38.8 -48.3 65 1 -71.9 Exports Imports 302.1 319.2 364.0 444.2 508.0 557.1 601.5 640.5 265.6 286.2 308.7 304.7 333.9 392.4 467.0 523.8 577.6 576.5 600.7 603.0 625.7 633.7 632.4 641.1 654.7 651.3 660.0 653.2 417.6 451.7 507.1 552.2 587.7 628.5 621.1 670.1 295.1 358.0 415.7 440.2 467.1 535.6 573.1 597.7 649.2 610.6 612.2 622.8 638.8 640.7 666.3 679.9 693.5 699.6 725.0 725.1 GDP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services. Government purchases Exports and imports of goods and services Total Total 772.3 833.0 881.5 918.7 975.2 1,047.4 1,099.3 1,131.8 631.6 657.6 727.0 799.2 849.7 901.4 937.6 994.5 1,076.5 1,093.0 1,099.9 1,104.0 1,100.2 1,118.5 1,125.8 1,139.1 1,143.8 1,139.7 1,158.6 1,164.8 344.3 367.8 384.9 387.0 401.6 426.5 445.9 448.8 281.4 289.7 324.7 356.9 373.1 392.5 392.0 405.1 436.5 450.2 449.4 446.8 437.4 445.5 444.6 452.8 452.4 442.7 447.5 443.6 National defense 258.6 276.7 292.1 295.6 299.9 314.0 322.5 313.8 205.5 222.8 242.9 268.6 278.6 295.8 296.8 302.5 322.5 331.4 326.3 321.2 311.2 312.3 310.4 316.7 315.7 304.8 307.6 301.9 Nondefense 85.7 91.1 92.9 91.4 101.7 112.5 123.4 135.0 75.9 66.9 81.9 88.3 94.5 96.7 95.2 102.6 114.0 118.7 123.0 125.6 126.2 133.1 134.2 136.1 136.7 137.9 140.0 141.7 State and local 428.1 465.3 496.6 531.7 573.6 620.9 653.4 683.0 350.3 367.9 402.2 442.4 476.6 509.0 545.7 589.3 640.0 642.9 650.5 657.3 662.8 673.0 681.2 686.2 691.4 697.0 711.1 721.2 Final sales of domestic product Gross domestic purchases * 4,014.1 4,260.0 4,513.7 4,884.2 5,217.5 5,539.3 5,731.6 6,031.2 3,241.4 3,527.1 3,818.1 4,107.9 4,355.4 4,623.7 5,027.3 5,314.6 5,621.8 5,651.6 5,720.8 5,759.1 5,794.8 5,913.9 5,978.6 6,049.9 6,182.5 6,227.1 6,314.5 6,388.2 4,154.3 4,401.2 4,683.0 5,008.4 5,330.5 5,617.5 5,742.5 6,068.2 3,224.6 3,619.1 3,976.2 4,276.0 4,469.8 4,826.2 5,150.7 5,418.7 5,669.5 5,665.8 5,709.2 5,778.4 5,816.7 5,915.8 6,025.3 6,098.3 6,233.2 6,309.9 6,392.7 6,467.8 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Addendum: Gross national product 4,053.6 4,277.7 4,544.5 4,908.2 5,266.8 5,567.8 5,737.1 6,045.8 3,222.6 3,578.4 3,890.2 4,156.2 4,340.5 4,690.5 5,054.3 5,365.0 5,630.0 5,656.1 5,710.6 5,766.2 5,815.5 5,927.6 5,996.3 6,067.3 6,191.9 6,262.1 6,327.1 6,402.3 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT IN 1987 DOLLARS [Billions of 1987 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross private domestic investment Period 1985 Gross domestic product Personal consumption expenditures Exports and imports of goods and services Government purchases State and local Final sales of domestic product Gross domestic purchases 1 Addendum: Gross national product Federal Nonresidentia! fixed investment Residential fixed investment Change in business inventories Net exports Exports Imports Total Total National defense Nondefense 4,279.8 4,404.5 4,539.9 4,718.6 4,838.0 4,897.3 4,861.4 4,986.3 2,865.8 2,969.1 3,052.2 3,162.4 3,223.3 3,272.6 3,258.6 3,341.8 521.8 500.3 497.8 530.8 540.0 546.5 514.5 529.2 202.0 226.2 225.2 222.7 214.2 194.5 169.5 197.1 145 3 22.1 8.5 -155.1 143 1 26.3 19.9 -104.0 29.8 -73.7 5.7 -54.7 -8.4 -19.1 6.5 -33.6 309.2 329.6 364.0 421.6 471.8 510.5 543.4 578.0 454.6 484.7 507.1 525.7 545.4 565.1 562.5 611.6 813.4 855.4 881.5 886.8 904.4 932.6 946.3 945.2 355.2 373.0 384.9 377.3 376.1 384.1 386.5 373.0 265.6 280.6 292.1 287.0 281.4 283.6 281.3 261.2 89.5 92.4 92.9 90.2 94.8 100.4 105.3 111.8 458.2 482.4 496.6 509.6 528.3 548.5 559.7 572.2 4,257.6 4,395.9 4,513.7 4,698.6 4,808.3 4,891.6 4,869.8 4,979.8 4,425.1 4,559.6 4,683.0 4,822.6 4,911.7 4,951.9 4,880.5 5,019.9 4,295.0 4,413.5 4,544.5 4,726.3 4,852.7 4,916.5 4,874.5 4,994.0 3,759.6 4,012.1 4,194.2 4,333.5 4,427.1 4,625.5 4,779.7 4,856.7 2,539.3 2,678.2 2,784.8 2,895.3 3,012.5 3,074.7 3,202.9 3,242.0 417.2 449.6 509.6 525.5 495.5 510.6 538.8 536.7 131.2 -44.9 -19.0 190.6 29.3 -83.7 198.8 131 4 47.9 207.4 30.2 -155.4 230.5 -20.1 156 0 223.3 59.9 -136.0 225.3 20.9 -102.7 208.0 674 24.9 280.4 291.5 312.8 312.0 342.9 386.1 438.2 487.7 299.4 375.1 444.2 467.4 498.9 522.1 540.9 555.0 735.9 748.1 784.3 830.5 864.8 893.0 894.5 912.6 316.0 322.2 341.7 363.7 377.5 391.6 378.4 376.1 229.4 242.9 254.3 272.1 282.2 295.0 285.7 281.5 86.6 79.3 87.4 91.6 95.3 96.6 92.7 94.7 419.9 425.9 442.6 466.7 487.3 501.4 516.1 536.5 3,804.5 3,982.8 4,146.2 4,303.3 4,447.2 4,565.6 4,758.7 4,831.8 3,778.6 4,095.8 4,325.5 4,488.9 4,583.1 4,761.5 4,882.4 4,924.1 3,791.7 4,046.6 4,216.4 4,349.5 4,430.8 4,633.0 4,789.0 4,875.1 1990: III IV 4,906.5 4,867.2 3,288.4 3,265.9 551.2 540.2 189.0 176.3 10.9 209 -62.2 -36.8 508.6 520.4 570.7 557.2 929.2 942.4 379.6 386.5 278.5 285.7 101.1 100.8 549.6 555.8 4,895.6 4,888.0 4,968.6 4,904.0 4,920.9 4,895.4 1991- I II III IV 4,837.8 4,855.6 4,872.6 4,879.6 3,242.7 3,256.9 3,267.1 3,267.5 521.4 517.8 512.8 506.1 163.8 174 164.3 -22.3 9 171.0 179.1 7.1 -21.6 -13.3 -25.0 -16.4 519.4 542.9 546.9 564.2 541.0 556.2 571.9 580.7 948.9 952.3 947.6 936.2 393.8 393.6 386.6 372.1 292.0 288.7 279.4 264.9 101.8 104.9 107.2 107.2 555.1 558.7 561.0 564.1 4,855.2 4,878.0 4,873.5 4,872.5 4,859.4 4,869.0 4,897.6 4,896.0 4,859.3 4,867.5 4,880.3 4,890.9 1992- I 4,922.0 4,956.5 4,998.2 5,068.3 3,302.3 3,316.8 3,350.9 3,397.2 510.5 528.8 533.8 543.7 186.2 195.6 196.2 210.6 50 12.6 9.6 8.7 -15.2 -38.0 -42.5 -38.8 571.0 570.2 579.3 591.6 586.2 608.2 621.8 630.3 943.1 940.7 950.2 946.9 372.1 369.2 377.0 373.7 261.2 257.9 264.4 261.3 110.9 111.3 112.5 112.4 571.0 571.5 573.2 573.2 4,926.9 4,943.8 4,988.6 5,059.6 4,937.1 4,994.5 5,040.7 5,107.1 4,939.0 4,962.2 5,006.4 5,068.4 5,078.2 3,403.8 5,102.1 3,432.7 5,138.3 3,469.6 562.3 584.3 594.8 211.4 206.2 212.1 29.3 13.0 6.5 -59.9 -75.2 86 3 588.0 593.2 591.9 647.9 668.4 678.2 931.3 941.1 941.7 357.6 359.4 353.7 246.0 246.4 240.1 111.5 113.0 113.7 573.7 581.6 588.0 5,048.9 5,089.1 5,131.8 5,138.1 5,177.4 5,224.6 5,080.7 5,104.1 5,145.8 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1982: 198319841985198619871988: 1989- IV IV IV IV IV IV . IV IV .. n ni .... IV 1993- I n r in 1 GDP less exports of goods and services plus import of goods and services Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis- IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT [1987 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Period Gross domestic product Gross private domestic investment Personal consumption expenditures Exports and imports of goods and services Government purchases Federal Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Services dential fixed Residential fixed Exports Imports Total National defense Nondefense State and local 94.4 96.9 100.0 103.9 108.5 113.3 117.7 121.1 93.1 96.0 100.0 104.2 109.3 114.9 119.9 123.9 95.4 96.9 100.0 102.0 104.2 105.7 107.3 108.9 95.9 96.1 100.0 103.7 109.3 115.9 120.0 122.4 90.8 95.7 100.0 105.1 110.6 116.7 122.8 128.5 96.6 98.4 100.0 102.8 105.2 107.3 108.0 106.9 92,0 95.8 100.0 104.2 107.8 110.7 111.8 113.4 97.7 96.9 100.0 105.3 107.7 109.1 110.7 110.8 91.9 93.2 100.0 105.1 107.8 111.2 110.4 109.6 96.9 98.6 100.0 102.6 106.8 111.0 115.4 120.3 97.3 98.6 100.0 103.0 106.6 110.7 114.7 120.1 95.7 98.6 100.0 101.4 107.3 112.0 117.2 120.8 93.4 96.4 100.0 104.3 108.6 113.2 116.7 119.4 IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV 85.0 88.4 92.3 95.5 98.0 101.2 105:5 110.1 115.0 83.8 87.6 90.7 94.6 97.0 101.6 106.1 111.0 117.5 90.6 93.3 94.4 95.9 97.8 101.0 103.1 104.9 106.1 89.4 91.8 94.2 97.0 96.3 101.5 105.6 110.8 119.2 79.0 83.7 87.7 92.9 97.3 101.9 107.1 112.7 119.2 95.3 95.0 96.4 97.3 99.2 100.7 104.0 106.0 108.2 86.0 88.0 90.7 93.1 97.3 101.5 105.3 108.8 111.1 94.7 98.2 98.7 97.7 97.4 101.6 106.6 107.4 111.0 98.5 95.4 93.6 94.2 93.6 102.6 106.0 107.7 116.5 89.0 89.9 95.0 98.1 98.8 100.2 103.6 107.7 112.9 89.6 91.7 95.5 98.7 98.7 100.3 103.9 107.5 112.9 87.7 84.3 93.7 96.4 99.2 100.1 102.6 108.4 113.1 83.4 86.4 90.9 94.8 97.8 101.5 105.7 109.9 115.2 1991: I II Ill IV 116.4 117.3 118.2 118.9 118.5 119.4 120.3 121.3 106,8 107.1 107.5 107.8 119.5 119.8 120.1 120.7 120.8 122.0 123.5 124.9 108.7 108.3 107.8 107.3 111.3 111.7 112.5 111.8 111.0 110.6 110.2 110.9 112.9 110.1 108.9 110.0 114.3 114.2 115.6 117.5 113.5 113.0 114.9 117.5 116.7 117.3 117.2 117.8 115.8 116.4 117.2 117.5 1992: 120.0 120.9 121.2 122.2 122.5 123.6 124.1 125.3 108.4 109.0 109.1 109.1 121.5 122.1 122.8 123.1 126.6 128.1 128.5 130.7 107.1 107.1 106.6 106.6 112.2 112.8 113.8 114.9 111.0 110.9 110.7 110.7 109.3 109.6 109.3 110.0 119.7 120.4 120.1 121.1 119.6 120.3 119.8 120.8 120.0 120.6 121.0 121.6 117.9 119.2 119.7 120.6 123.3 124.0 124.5 126.2 127.0 127.4 109.2 109.8 109.9 124.1 124.2 123.7 131.8 133.1 134.0 105.7 106.0 105.1 115.8 117.3 118.5 110.8 111.3 110.4 108.0 108.5 106.9 123.8 124.5 125.4 123.9 124.8 125.7 123.6 123.9 124.6 121.5 122.3 122.7 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1982198319841985: 19861987: 198819891990- I II Ill IV 1993- I II Ill * Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. CHANGES IN GDP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND RELATED IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS AND PRICE INDEXES [Percent change from preceding year or quarter; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Persona] consumption expenditures Gross domestic product Period Current dollars 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 ... . 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 . 1989: m IV 1990: I n m 1991: IV I II m 1992: IV I .... n in . IV 1993- I n r m Constant (1987) dollars Implicit price deflator 1.8 -2.2 3.9 6.2 3.2 2.9 3.1 3.9 2.5 1.2 7 10.0 6.2 4.1 4.4 11.9 3.9 8.1 10.9 6.9 5.7 6.4 7.9 7.2 5.6 3.2 5.5 3.8 5.1 9.1 5.9 3.1 1.0 2.4 4.8 4.3 3.2 7.4 5.7 4.6 9.2 2.6 0 1.5 3.5 1.5 .9 -3.2 24 1.5 1.4 .6 3.5 2.8 3.4 5.7 3.7 2.6 3.2 3.9 4.4 4.4 3.9 2.9 3.8 3.7 5.2 4.4 4.0 4.3 5.0 3.1 3.1 2.4 3.8 3.0 1.0 3.3 4.4 4.3 4.4 .8 1.9 2.9 3.6 2.3 1.6 Fixed-weighted price index (1987 weights) Fixed-weighted price index (1987 weights) Constant (1987) dollars Implicit price deflator 3.9 3.4 3.5 2.8 3.1 4.0 4.5 4.6 4.1 3.3 3.8 3.7 5.8 4.4 4.7 3.8 5.1 3.4 3.4 2.7 4.2 3.4 2.5 3.1 10.2 6.9 9.6 9.0 8.4 6.9 7.1 8.0 6.9 6.8 3.9 6.0 6.3 5.3 9.2 5.3 8.3 3.7 .7 4.7 4.4 3.5 8.6 5.4 5.7 9.9 1.2 1.1 4.6 4.8 4.4 3.6 2.8 3.6 1.9 1.5 4 2.6 2.9 .8 2.8 .9 2.1 -2.7 -2.8 1.8 1.3 .0 4.3 1.8 4.2 5.6 9.0 5.7 4.9 3.9 3.9 3.1 4.2 4.2 4.9 5.1 4.4 3.3 3.3 4.4 6.3 4.3 6.1 6.7 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.4 4.0 3.6 1.6 3.9 8.6 5.4 4.3 3.7 3.8 3.0 4.1 4.3 5.0 5.3 4.5 3.7 3.5 4.4 6.6 4.2 6.3 7.0 3.9 3.2 3.4 3.5 4.5 3.6 3.4 3.1 4.3 2.8 2.1 3.8 6.1 5.5 .8 3.4 4.4 2.9 2.6 1.3 3.4 2.9 1.4 Current dollars Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS-OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars) Period 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 198219831984198519861987198819891990- IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV i99i- in IV 1992- I n m IV 1993- I n in ' Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollars) ' Total cost and profit 2 Consumption of fixed capital Compensation of employees Net interest Profits tax liability Profits after4 Current dollars 1987 dollars 2,293.6 2,386.3 2,547.3 2,764.8 2,913.5 3,045.5 3,082.1 3,243.4 2,364.3 2,439.3 2,547.3 2,684.8 2,718.9 2,747.4 2,710.0 2,822.3 0.970 0.109 .111 .110 .111 .117 .120 .126 .125 0.093 .095 .095 .096 .101 .106 .115 .116 0.636 0.038 0.064 .648 .658 .676 .706 .736 .758 .762 .040 .042 .045 .054 .054 .052 .048 0.094 .084 .096 .102 .094 .093 .086 .099 0.030 .978 1.000 1.030 1.072 1.109 1.137 1.149 .031 .037 .038 .037 .034 .031 .035 .053 .059 .064 .057 .059 .056 .064 1,806.3 2,037.2 2,228.2 2,338.8 2,422.8 2,627.6 2,843.2 2,951.5 3,052.5 3,086.8 3,129.5 3,159.8 3,218.1 3,264.2 3,331.6 3,331.7 3,395.9 3,432.2 1,999.6 2,204.2 2,328.4 2,396.9 2,463.3 2,604.0 2,719.0 2,722.7 2,725.0 2,708.5 2,745.0 2,759.5 2,802.6 2,839.8 2,887.4 2,867.5 2,916.6 2,948.9 .903 .924 .957 .976 .984 1.009 1.046 1.084 1.120 1.140 1.140 1.145 1.148 1.149 1.154 1.162 1.164 1.164 .119 .119 .111 .110 .112 .110 .112 .120 .123 .126 .125 .125 .124 .129 .122 .124 .123 .124 .086 .088 .091 .093 .095 .094 .097 .102 .109 .116 .116 .117 .116 .116 .116 .116 .118 .118 .607 .602 .623 .643 .654 .664 .687 .718 .748 .761 .760 .762 .762 .762 .761 .772 .770 .769 .040 .036 .041 .038 .042 .042 .047 .055 .054 .052 .051 .050 .049 .047 .046 .047 .046 .045 .051 .079 .091 .092 .081 .099 .102 .088 .085 .084 .088 .091 .098 .096 .109 .102 .108 .108 .020 .029 .027 .030 .035 .038 .040 .033 .034 .031 .031 .033 .036 .034 .037 .037 .040 .038 .030 .050 .064 .063 .045 .060 .063 .055 .052 .053 .056 .059 .062 .062 .072 .065 .068 .070 1 Output is measured by GDP of nonfinancial corporate business in 1987 dollars. 2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business the3decimal point shifted two places to the left. Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. Indirect business taxes 3 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Total 4 Output per hour of all employees (1987 dollars) Compensation per hour of all employees (dollars) tax T 22. 150 ' 22.735 r 23.129 23.572 23.189 23.446 23.865 24.836 r r 2 1.070 21.893 22.054 r 22.347 r 22.892 ' 23.358 23.524 23.147 23.549 23.889 24.246 24.394 24.678 25.031 25.310 25.053 25.296 25.512 ' 14.083 ' 14.741 15.208 15.833 16.377 17.246 18.087 18.915 12.791 !3.187 ' 13.732 14.359 ' 14.975 15.518 16.071 16.618 17.623 18.183 18.419 18.597 18.803 19.062 19.249 19.353 19.468 19.629 r With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] National income Period Compensation of employees1 Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Farm 1985 1986 ... 1987 1988 . . 1989 1990 .. . 1991 1992 . . 1982: IV 1983- IV 1984: IV 1985- IV 1986: IV 1987: IV 1988: IV 1989: IV 1990: IV 1991: III IV 1992: I II Ill IV 1993: I II III T. 1 3,268.4 3,437.9 3,692.3 4,002.6 4,249.5 4,491.0 4,598.3 4,836.6 2,551.5 2,834.3 3,134.4 3,341.9 3,486.0 3,828.8 4,127.6 4,305.2 4,539.2 4,596.9 4,662.6 4,755.4 4,814.6 4,800.8 4,975.8 5,038.9 5,104.0 5,143.2 2,382.8 2,523.8 2,698.7 2,921.3 3,100.2 3,297.6 3,402.4 3,582.0 1,940.4 2,101.2 2,288.1 2,442.5 2,582.5 2,785.1 3,004.9 3,162.8 3,344.2 3,415.8 3,455.4 3,507.8 3,558.1 3,603.6 3,658.6 3,705.1 3,750.6 3,793.9 Kental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Nonfarm 21.5 22.3 31.3 30.9 40.2 41.9 36.8 43.7 10.2 6.3 21.9 17.8 23.6 42.4 30.9 38.4 43.8 29.8 37.6 45.6 44.9 36.8 47.6 55.7 47.0 24.8 18.7 8.7 3.2 4.3 13 5 -14.2 -12.8 -8.9 24.1 22.2 24.3 14.0 4.7 6.8 2.8 -21.6 — 11.1 -16.3 -11.2 -8.7 -7.2 -18.5 -1.2 7.5 12.7 13.7 238.4 261.5 279.0 293.4 307.0 321.4 339.5 370.6 169.6 193.8 217.7 250.9 260.9 282.6 302.5 311.4 325.1 344.4 350.1 361.2 366.2 371.3 383.6 388.4 392.4 397.6 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Total Total 280.8 271.6 319.8 365.0 362.8 380.6 369.5 407.2 150.3 229.1 261.3 284.9 264.6 343.3 378.3 354.5 362.8 359.0 378.8 409.9 411.7 367.5 439.5 432.1 458.1 468.5 225.3 227.6 273.4 320.3 325.4 354.7 367.3 390.1 160.0 216.2 223.6 228.0 225.0 293.4 340.5 320.6 349.3 359.0 375.4 399.7 395.7 350.1 414.8 407.0 433.4 444.8 Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment 225.0 217.8 287.9 347.5 342.9 365.7 362.3 395.4 168.6 223.8 220.1 231.8 235.7 311.2 372.2 334.1 368.9 362.0 373.5 404.3 409.5 357.9 409.9 419.8 445.6 443.8 0.2 9.7 -14.5 -27.3 17 5 -11.0 4.9 -5.3 -8.6 -7.6 3.5 38 -10.7 178 -31.7 -13.5 -19.5 -3.0 1.9 -4.6 -13.7 -7.8 4.9 -12.7 -12.2 1.0 Capital consumption adjustment Net interest 55.5 44.1 46.4 44.7 37.4 25.9 2.2 17.1 -9.6 12.9 37.7 56.9 39.6 49.9 37.9 33.9 13.5 .0 3.5 10.2 16.0 17.4 24.7 25.1 24.7 23.8 326.2 350.2 360.4 387.7 452.7 463.7 462.8 442.0 256.8 281.8 321.1 331.9 349.7 368.6 408.1 459.8 474.4 464.2 451.9 439.5 440.8 440.1 447.7 450.1 443.2 444.6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN 1987 DOLLARS [Billions of 1987 dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Durable goods Period 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1989: 1990: 1991: 1992: IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV I II Ill IV I II Ill IV 1993: I II r Ill .... 1 Total persona! consumption expenditures 2,865.8 2,969.1 3,052.2 3,162.4 3,223.3 3,272.6 3,258.6 3,341.8 2,539.3 2,678.2 2,784.8 2,895.3 3,012.5 3,074.7 3,202.9 3,242.0 3,265.9 3,242.7 3,256.9 3,267.1 3,267.5 3,302.3 3,316.8 3,350.9 3,397.2 3,403.8 3,432.7 3,469.6 Total durable goods 370.1 402.0 403.7 428.7 440.7 443.1 426.6 456.6 272.3 319.1 347.7 369.6 415.7 404.7 439.2 436.8 433.2 420.3 422.0 432.6 431.5 446.6 447.5 459.0 473.4 471.9 484.2 493.1 Motor vehicles and parts 180.2 193.3 183.5 194.8 196.4 192.7 170.5 182.3 123.7 151.6 164.3 173.9 193.6 183.6 197.7 188.3 182.1 169.4 165.9 173.7 173.0 180.6 179.5 180.6 188.6 185.7 191.3 189.9 Includes other items, not shown separately. Furniture and household equipment 123.8 136.3 144.0 155.4 165.8 171.6 180.0 194.8 96.4 109.3 118.7 128.6 141.4 145.9 160.3 167.9 172.3 174.3 180.0 182.7 182.9 188.2 189.8 197.1 204.2 206.5 212.4 219.4 Services Nondurable goods Other 66.1 72.4 76.2 78.5 78.5 78.7 76.1 79.5 52.3 58.1 64.8 67.1 80.7 75.2 81.2 80.5 78.8 76.6 76.0 76.2 75.6 77.8 78.2 81.3 80.6 79.7 80.6 83.7 Total nondurable goods 958.7 991.0 1,011.1 1,035.1 1,051.6 1,060.7 1,048.2 1,062.9 880.7 915.2 942.9 968.7 1,000.9 1,014.6 1,046.8 1,058.9 1,057.5 1,048.2 1,051.1 1,049.3 1,044.0 1,052.0 1,055.0 1,062.9 1,081.8 1,076.0 1,083.1 1,093.0 Food 483.0 494.1 500.7 513.4 515.0 523.9 518.7 520.5 458.3 467.1 475.1 488.2 496.9 502.4 518.0 515.6 525.8 518.7 519.0 518.8 518.2 518.8 515.7 518.2 529.3 526.7 528.6 532.6 Clothing and shoes 158.8 170.3 174.5 178.9 187.8 186.2 184.7 193.7 135.7 147.7 154.7 161.7 171.9 174.5 182.8 190.9 184.5 182.9 187.0 185.9 183.1 188.3 191.1 195.4 200.0 194.8 197.8 200.6 Gasoline and oil 79.2 82.9 84.7 86.1 87.3 86.4 83.1 83.9 73.4 76.9 79.0 79.5 84.6 85.4 87.5 88.6 84.6 82.7 83.7 83.4 82.5 82.7 83.7 84.7 84.4 83.9 84.1 86.2 Fuel oil and coal 11.5 12.1 12.0 12.0 11.4 10.5 10.7 11.9 10.5 11.4 11.1 11.4 12.4 11.9 12.0 12.0 9.5 10.3 10.6 11.4 10.6 11.1 12.8 11.7 11.9 12.9 12.6 13.2 Other 226.2 231.7 239.1 244.7 250.2 253.8 250.9 252.9 202.8 212.2 222.9 228.0 235.2 240.4 246.4 251.8 253.1 253.5 250.9 249.8 249.6 251.1 251.7 252.7 256.2 257.7 259.9 260.4 Total services ] 1,537.0 1,576.1 1,637.4 1,698.5 1,731.0 1,768.8 1,783.8 1,822.3 1,386.2 1,443.9 1,494.2 1,557.1 1,595.8 1,655.5 1,716.9 1,746.3 1,775.2 1,774.2 1,783.8 1,785.2 1,792.0 1,803.7 1,814.3 1,829.0 1,842.0 1,855.9 1,865.4 1,883.5 Housing 435.9 442.1 452.5 461.8 469.2 474.6 478.6 484.2 411.0 419.7 431.3 438.1 444.8 457.0 465.6 471.3 475.9 476.3 478.1 479.4 480.6 481.7 483.2 485.1 486.7 488.8 490.7 493.3 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Retail sales of new passenger cars (millions of units) Medical care 353.0 366.2 384.7 399.4 408.6 424.6 437.6 449.2 327.8 334.8 344.9 359.1 372.0 390.7 403.0 411.8 429.4 432.6 435.3 438.8 443.6 445.3 447.9 450.4 453.2 458.0 461.1 465.1 Domestics 8.2 8.2 7.1 7.5 7.1 6.9 6.1 6.3 6.0 7.4 7.7 7.0 7.7 6.6 7.5 6.2 6.6 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.4 6.4 6.9 6.6 Imports 2.8 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income increased $34.2 billion (annual rate) in November following a rise of $38.9 billion in October. Wages and salaries rose $11.7 billion in November following an increase of $16.3 billion in October. BIUJONS OF DOUARS* (RATIO SCALE) 6,000 BILLIONS OF DOUARS* (RATIO SCALE) 6,000 5,000 5,000 4,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS . 2,000 2,000 1,400 1,400 \ OTHER INCOME 800 800 TRANSFER PAYMENTS \ * , • 400 400 1985 1986 1988 1987 1989 1990 1992 1991 1993 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISEIS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Total personal income Period 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1992- Nov Dec 1993- Jan Feb Mar . ... May July ' Aug r Sent r Oct ' Nov ' .... 3,154.6 3,379.8 3,590.4 3,802.0 4,075.9 4,380.3 4,673.8 4,850.9 5,144.9 5,238.5 5,507.3 5,225.7 5,249.1 5,289.2 5,365.6 5,380.4 5,373.6 5,365.1 5,432.3 5,440.6 5,479.5 5,513.7 Wage and salary disbursements * 1,849.8 1,986.5 2,105.4 2,261.2 2,443.0 2,586.4 2,745.0 2,815.0 2,973.1 3,021.1 3,263.9 2,970.9 2,976.3 2,975.8 3,068.3 3,093.8 3,086.0 3,101.6 3,124.3 3,120.4 3,136.7 3,148.4 Proprietors' income 3 Other labor income ' 2 184.7 191.8 200.7 210.4 230.5 251.9 274.3 296.9 322.7 331.5 333.1 335.8 338.5 341.2 343.9 346.6 349.3 352.0 354.7 357.4 360.1 362.9 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. * Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Nonfarm Farm 21.3 21.5 22.3 31.3 30.9 40.2 41.9 36.8 43.7 38.6 46.2 36.9 48.2 82.0 59.7 45.2 36.0 10.6 31.1 32.7 41.2 54.3 4 214.7 238.4 261.5 279.0 293.4 307.0 321.4 339.5 370.6 382.4 387.8 388.4 388.7 388.2 389.7 392.7 394.8 393.1 399.4 400.4 405.7 408.1 Rental income of persons 4 23.3 18.7 8.7 3.2 4.3 -13.5 — 14.2 -12.8 -8.9 — 1.4 -.4 4.9 9.5 8.1 14.3 12.0 11.9 7.1 16.1 17.9 19.2 20.5 Personal dividend income 78.8 87.9 104.7 100.4 108.4 126.5 144.4 127.9 140.4 152.0 155.3 156.7 157.1 157.2 157.5 157.8 158.2 158.6 159.0 159.3 159.4 159.4 Personal interest income 461.9 498.1 531.7 548.1 583.2 668.2 698.2 715.6 694.3 694.8 696.6 695.7 695.3 695.2 694.1 693.1 692.0 693.6 695.7 697.8 700.3 702.8 Transfer payments * 452.9 485.9 517.8 542.2 576.7 625.0 687.6 769.9 858.4 872.4 880.2 892.4 892.6 898.3 901.7 904.5 910.2 914.3 919.4 921.8 925.0 926.3 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance 132.8 149.1 162.1 173.6 194.5 211.4 224.9 237.8 249.3 252.9 255.4 256.1 256.9 256.9 263.5 265.3 264.9 265.9 267.4 267.0 268.2 269.0 Nonfarm personal income 8 3,106.1 3,333.2 3,545.6 3,749.4 4,023.9 4,318.0 4,608.6 4,792.0 5,080.1 5,178.9 5,440.2 5,167.4 5,179.0 5,185.1 5,283.7 5,312.8 5,315.0 5,332.2 5,378.7 5,385.4 5,415.6 5,436.8 With capital consumption adjustment. Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 5 6 DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME According to revised estimates, per capita disposable personal income in 1987 dollars rose in the third quarter of 1993. BILUONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE) 5,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE] 2,500 2,000 I T I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I DOLLARS' (RATIOSCALE) I I I I 2,000 DOLLARS- (RATIOSCALE) PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 18,000 18,000 •MT DOLLAR —• 1 1, \ 16,000 " 16,000 •— 14,000 ._ 12,000 14,000 ^- r^-H ^-——•" ^ \ 12,000 1 987 DOLLARS """ ' 10,000 8,000 1 1 \ \ 1 1 1983 1982 10,000 1 1 1 1984 111 1985 1 1 1 1986 1 1 1 1987 1 1 1 1988 1 1 1 1 1989 1 1 1 1990 1 I 1991 1 1 1 1992 1 1 1 8,000 1993 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Period Personal income Less: Personal tax and nontax payments Kquals: Disposable personal income Less: Persona! outlays * Equals: Personal saving Per capita disposable personal income Disposable personal income in 1987 Current dollars dollars (billions) 3,379.8 3,590.4 3,802.0 4,075.9 4,380.3 4,673.8 4,850.9 5,144.9 436.8 459.0 512.5 527.7 593.3 623.3 620.4 644.8 2,943.0 3,131.5 3,289.5 3,548.2 3,787.0 4,050.5 4,230.5 4,500.2 Current dollars 1987 dollars 2,753.7 2,944.0 3,147.5 3,392.5 3,634.9 3,880.6 4,029.0 4,261.5 189.3 187.5 142.0 155.7 152.1 170.0 201.5 238.7 3,162.1 3,261.9 3,289.5 3,404.3 3,464.9 3,524.5 3,529.0 3,632.5 12,339 13,010 13,545 14,477 15,307 16,205 16,741 17,615 Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population, including Armed overseas (thousands) 2 Percent Dollars Billions of dollars 1985 1986 1987. 1988 1989 1990 1991 . . 1992 1987 dollars Per capita personal consumption expenditures 13,258 13,552 13,545 13,890 14,005 14,101 13,965 14,219 11,843 12,568 13,448 14,241 15,048 15,459 16,205 12,015 12,336 12,568 12,903 13,029 13,093 12,895 13,081 1.8 2.2 — .1 2.5 .8 .7 -1.0 1.8 6.4 6.0 4.3 4.4 4.0 4.2 4.8 5.3 238,510 240,691 242,860 245,093 247,397 249,951 252,699 255,472 12,154 12,591 13,145 13,278 13,522 13.685 13,996 14,015 14,018 13,971 14,000 13,927 13,963 14,073 14,142 14,169 14,490 14,163 14,326 14,341 9,134 9,980 10,649 11,445 12,101 12,819 13,814 14,491 15,283 15,273 15,409 15,530 15,621 15,906 16,072 16,249 16,589 16,704 16,907 17,088 10,895 11,390 11,739 12,095 12,472 12,615 13,020 13,053 13,010 12,885 12,908 12,911 12,876 12,981 13,002 13,098 13,241 13,234 13,312 13,416 -0.5 7.2 1.0 1.8 -1.7 5.2 3.2 1.8 -1.7 -1.3 .8 — 2.1 1.0 3.2 2.0 .8 9.4 -8.7 4.7 .4 7.7 6.8 7.9 6.0 4.8 5.0 4.3 3.9 4.3 4.8 4.9 4.4 4.9 5.0 5.3 4.9 6.0 3.9 4.4 3.8 233,060 235,146 237,231 239,387 241,550 243,745 246,004 248,372 251,035 251,659 252,312 253,048 253,776 254,392 255,090 255,836 256,569 257,197 257,872 258,612 11,184 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1989: 1990: 1991: 2,746.8 2,965.8 3,242.5 3,456.7 3,647.8 3,918.5 4,195.2 4,469.4 4,759.1 4,783.9 4,833.4 m ... 4,858.8 IV .... 4,927.5 1992: I 5,017.8 II 5,093.8 m ... 5,139.8 IV .... 5,328.3 5,254.7 1993: I II r 5,373.2 Ill .. 5,412.7 IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV .... I II 372.1 371.6 413.4 448.8 478.5 528.6 542.0 605.1 625.2 616.4 616.6 619.7 628.8 630.9 634.6 642.8 670.7 657.1 681.0 689.0 2,374.7 2,594.3 2,829.1 3,007.9 3,169.3 3,389.9 3,653.2 3,864.3 4,133.9 4,167.5 4,216.8 4,239.1 4,298.8 4,386.9 4,459.2 4,497.0 4,657.6 4,597.5 4,692.2 4,723.7 2,190.9 2,417.9 2,606.5 2,828.7 3,018.2 3,220.1 3,496.7 3,715.5 3,957.7 3,966.0 4,010.7 4,052.3 4,087.0 4,169.4 4,221.3 4,277.3 4,377.9 4,419.7 4,483.6 4,544.0 183.8 176.3 222.6 179.2 151.1 169.8 156.4 148.8 176.2 201.5 206.0 186.8 211.7 217.5 237.9 219.6 279.7 177.9 208.7 179.7 2,832.6 2,960.6 3,118.5 3,178.7 3,266.2 3,335.8 3,443.1 3,480.9 3,519.0 3,515.9 3,532.5 3,524.2 3,543.4 3,580.1 3,607.5 3,624.8 3,717.6 3,642.6 3,694.4 3,708.7 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by persons, and personal transfer payments to rest of the world (net). 10,189 11,033 11,925 12,565 13,121 13,907 14,850 15,558 16,467 16,560 16,712 16,752 16,939 17,245 17,481 17,577 18,153 17,876 18,196 18,265 z Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the second quarter of 1993, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income rose $15.1 billion (annual rate) and net farm income rose $12.8 billion. BILUC NS OF DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' (RATIOS CALE) 240 200 160 f ^ 1 ^ ^ ~~~ ^ ^ ! • • •"" " '— " 240 200 " 160 \^\ \ 1 120 120 GRO:>S FARM INCOME 80 80 An 40 40 20 20 10 10 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from farming Net farm income Gross farm income Period Cash marketing receipts Total ' Total 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1991: . .. I II III rv 1992: I . ... 168.0 161.2 156.1 168.5 175.8 190.9 196.4 190.3 197.7 190.5 191.2 186.8 192.7 199.6 II 202.8 III 197.3 191.3 193.2 IV 1993- I p n 1 208.3 142.8 144.1 135.4 141.8 151.2 161.2 170.0 168.7 171.2 166.5 166.8 172.2 169.4 167.1 174.2 178.9 164.5 166.1 185.1 Livestock and products 69.9 74.3 63.8 65.9 71.7 77.0 80.1 81.9 84.8 76.9 79.2 87.3 84.4 82.9 88.1 93.6 74.6 76.2 95.9 72.9 69.8 71.6 76.0 79.4 84.1 89.8 86.8 86.4 89.6 87.6 84.9 85.0 84.2 86.0 85.3 89.9 89.9 89.1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. Crops 3 Value of inventory changes 2 6.0 -2.3 2.2 -2.3 3.4 4.8 3.4 -.3 3.8 1.2 .6 .1 -3.1 4.7 4.3 3.5 2.5 -3.6 -3.4 Production expenses Current dollars 141.9 132.4 125.1 128.8 137.0 144.0 149.9 150.3 149.1 147.5 149.8 151.7 152.2 146.3 148.6 150.4 151.0 148.2 150.5 1987 dollars 26.1 28.8 31.1 39.7 38.8 46.9 46.5 40.0 48.6 43.0 41.4 35.2 40.5 53.3 54.2 46.8 40.3 45.0 57.8 Income in current dollars divided by the GDP implicit price deflator. NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Credit Corporation loans and operator households. Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce. 3 28.7 30.5 32.0 39.7 37.3 43.2 41.0 34.0 40.2 37.0 35.3 29.8 34.1 44.4 44.8 38.6 33.0 36.5 46.6 CORPORATE PROFITS In the third quarter of 1993, according to revised estimates, corporate profits before tax fell $1.8 billion (annual rate) and profits after tax rose $2.0 billion. BILLIONS OF DOUARS 450 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 350 200 100 50 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adju=t-'d annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment 1 Profits after tax Domestic industries Period Nonfinancial Total 2 Total 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985198619871988: 1989: 1990: 1991: ... IV. . IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV I II m IV . 1992: I II Ill IV 1993- I II r in 1 2 225.3 227.6 273.4 320.3 325.4 354.7 367.3 390.1 160.0 216.2 223.6 228.0 225.0 293.4 340.5 320.6 349.3 364.6 370.1 359.0 375.4 399.7 395.7 350.1 414.8 407.0 433.4 444.8 194.5 194.6 233.9 271.2 266.0 286.7 300.4 327.8 130.8 182.6 192.9 193.5 192.5 246.3 285.9 254.8 273.8 291.9 303.6 299.3 306.8 328.5 334.2 288.6 360.1 348.0 375.3 382.1 Financial 28.7 35.8 36.4 41.8 50.6 65.7 80.7 78.1 23.0 22.1 20.3 29.0 34.7 39.4 46.1 52.5 66.6 75.9 81.0 84.2 81.6 97.9 87.7 44.6 82.0 92.3 96.4 99.3 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. Total 3 165.8 158.9 197.5 229.4 215.3 221.1 219.7 249.8 107.8 160.5 172.6 164.5 157.8 207.0 239.7 202.3 207.2 216.0 222.6 215.1 225.2 230.5 246.5 244.0 278.1 255.7 278.9 282,8 Manufacturing Wholesale and retail trade 80.1 59.0 87.0 117.5 108.0 109.1 89.8 115.5 50.1 90.5 79.2 83.3 63.9 98.7 129.3 94.5 98.5 91.5 89.6 89.3 88.9 98.9 115.7 119.3 128.0 118.9 132.5 126.7 43.1 46.3 39.9 37.1 39.7 37.2 47.4 46.3 33.8 40.7 50.8 39.0 43.1 39.3 39.3 39.2 36.2 46.5 49.6 45.6 47.8 40.0 46.0 41.3 57.7 46.0 55.4 55.1 3 Profits before tax 225.0 217.8 287.9 347.5 342.9 365.7 362.3 395.4 168.6 223.8 220.1 231.8 235.7 311.2 372.2 334.1 368.9 356.5 357.4 362.0 373.5 404.3 409.5 357.9 409.9 419.8 445.6 443.8 Tax liability 96.5 106.5 127.1 137.0 141.3 138.7 129.8 146.3 58.7 82.2 83.8 97.6 116.6 135.2 146.2 134.2 137.0 125.4 128.0 132.5 133.4 147.0 153.0 130.1 155.0 160.9 173.3 169.5 Total 128.5 111.3 160.8 210.5 201.6 227.1 232.5 249.1 109.9 141.6 136.3 134.2 119.2 176.0 226.0 200.0 231.8 231.1 229.4 229.5 240.1 257.3 256.5 227.8 254.9 258.9 272.3 274.3 Dividends 92.4 109.8 106.2 115.3 134.6 153.5 137.4 150.5 72.5 84.2 83.4 97.4 111.0 106.3 121.0 141.3 153.7 145.9 136.2 133.4 133.9 138.0 146.1 155.2 162.9 167.5 168.5 169.7 Includes industries not shown separately. Sourre: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Undistributed profits 36.1 1.6 54.6 95.2 67.1 73.6 95.2 98.6 37.5 57.4 52.9 36.9 8.2 69.7 105.0 58.7 78.1 85.2 93.2 96.1 106.1 119.3 110.4 72.7 92.0 91.4 103.9 104.6 Inventory valuation adjustment 0.2 9.7 -14.5 27.3 -17.5 -11.0 4.9 -5.3 -8.6 -7.6 3.5 -3.8 10.7 -17.8 -31.7 -13.5 -19.5 8.2 12.7 -3.0 1.9 -4.6 -13.7 -7.8 4.9 -12.7 -12.2 1.0 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN 1987 DOLLARS According to revised estimates for the third quarter of 1993, nonresidential fixed investment in 1987 dollars rose $10.5 billion (annual rate) and residential investment rose $5.9 billion. There was a $6.5 billion increase in inventories, following an increase of $13.0 billion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF 1987 DOLLARS BILLIONS OF 1987 DOLLARS 900 900 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 800 800 700 700 600 500 500 400 RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT 300 200 200 CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES 100 AT I -100 L 1982 100 1984 1985 1988 1989 1990 1992 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1993 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of 1987 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Change in business inventories Fixed investment Gross private domestic investment Period 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 198219831984198519861987198819891990- . IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV 1991- I II Ill IV 1992- I II . . . Ill IV 1993- I II HI r . Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Nonresidential Total Total Structures Producers' durable equipment Residential Total Nonfarm 197.4 176.6 171.3 174.0 177.6 179.5 160.2 150.6 324.4 323.7 326.5 356.8 362.5 367.0 354.3 378.6 202.0 226.2 225.2 222.7 214.2 194.5 169.5 197.1 22.1 8.5 26.3 19.9 29.8 5.7 8.4 6.5 19.8 10.6 32.7 26.9 29.9 3.2 8.6 2.7 538.8 536.7 540.2 173.2 162.6 189.5 198.3 170.4 177.9 175.7 179.8 172.8 244.0 287.0 320.1 327.2 325.0 332.7 363.1 356.9 367.4 131.2 190.6 198.8 207.4 230.5 223.3 225.3 208.0 176.3 44.9 29.3 47.9 30.2 -20.1 59.9 20.9 24.9 -20.9 — 46.2 32.3 50.8 28.0 18.6 62.1 30.5 31.2 -18.7 521.4 517.8 512.8 506.1 169.0 165.2 155.6 151.0 352.5 352.6 357.2 355.2 163.8 164.3 171.0 179.1 -17.4 — 22.3 -.9 7.1 -18.7 -26.2 .0 10.3 696.7 724.4 730.0 754.3 510.5 528.8 533.8 543.7 152.8 152.9 148.8 148.0 357.7 375.9 385.1 395.7 186.2 195.6 196.2 210.6 -5.0 12.6 9.6 8.7 9.6 7.0 5.8 7.5 773.7 790.6 806.9 562.3 584.3 594.8 148.2 151.1 151.2 414.1 433.2 443.6 211.4 206.2 212.1 29.3 13.0 6.5 29.3 17.1 19.4 745.9 735.1 749.3 773.4 784.0 746.8 675.7 732.9 723.8 726.5 723.0 753.4 754.2 726.4 529.2 503.5 669.5 756.4 763.1 705.9 793.8 785.0 769.5 695.7 548.4 640.2 708.4 732.9 725.9 733.9 417.2 764.1 667.8 659.8 682.8 692.3 685.2 691.7 737.0 739.6 763.0 803.0 803.6 813.4 741.1 684.1 744.6 716.6 682.1 683.8 685.2 521.8 500.3 497.8 530.8 540.0 546.5 514.5 449.6 509.6 525.5 495.5 510.6 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT According to the Commerce Department October-November 1993 survey, business spending for new plant and equipment is expected to rise 5.4 percent in 1994, following an estimated rise of 7.0 percent in 1993. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE] BILLIONS Of DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 700 700 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL HATES 600 500 500 ALL INDUSTRIES 400' 400 \ NONMANUFACTURING^ \ MANUFACTURING I I I I 1985 I I I I I 1990 1987 I I I I I I/SURVEYED QUARTERLY 2/SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE I I I I COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Addenda Industries surveyed quarterly Nonmanufacturing Manufacturing Period All industries Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total ' Mining Transportation Public utilities Commercial and other Total nonfarm business 2 Nonmanufacturing Manufacturing Total Surveyed quarterly 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 4 1994" 326.19 321.16 373.83 410.12 399.36 410.52 455.49 507.40 532.61 528.39 546.60 584.64 616.50 123.97 117.35 139.61 152.88 137.95 141.06 163.45 183.80 192.61 182.81 174.02 179.46 186.27 54.58 51.61 64.57 70.87 65.68 68.03 77.04 82.56 82.58 77.64 73.32 81.49 84.93 69.39 65.74 75.04 82.01 72.28 73.03 86.41 101.24 110.04 105.17 100.69 97.97 101.34 202.22 203.82 234.22 257.24 261.40 269.46 292.04 323.60 339.99 345.58 372.58 405.18 430.22 14.11 10.64 11.86 12.00 8.15 8.28 9.29 9.21 9.88 10.02 8.88 10.13 10.84 11.75 10.81 13.44 14.57 15.05 15.07 16.63 18.84 21.47 22.66 22.64 22.37 20.91 53.58 52.95 57.53 59.58 56.61 56.26 60.37 66.28 67.21 66.57 72.21 75.00 81.42 122.79 129.41 151.39 171.09 181.59 189.84 205.76 229.28 241.43 246.32 268.84 297.69 317.05 1992- I II 534.85 541.41 547.40 559.24 173.82 171.98 172.86 176.86 73.98 74.07 72.09 73.30 99.85 97.91 100.77 103.56 361.03 369.44 374.54 382.38 8.92 9.20 8.98 8.47 21.83 23.15 23.91 21.60 69.00 72.63 72.18 74.07 261.27 264.46 269.46 278.24 173 82 171.98 172 86 176.86 361.03 369.44 374 54 382.38 564.13 579.79 594.11 600.53 175.05 177.09 182.17 183.52 79.11 80.88 81.99 83.99 95.94 96.21 100.18 99.53 389.08 402.70 411.94 417.01 8.89 9.10 11.14 11.37 22.47 21.58 21.70 23.73 73.51 74.55 75.62 76.30 284.21 297.46 303.47 305.61 175.05 177.09 182.17 183.52 389.08 402.70 411 94 417.01 616.38 624.33 186.22 183.44 87.50 83.92 98.72 99.52 430.16 440.89 10.83 11.14 21.49 21.61 77.78 80.80 320.06 327.33 186 22 183.44 430 16 440.89 Ill IV 1993- I II Ill r IV 1994: I " II •> 1 Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May 1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See iast column ("nonmanufacturing surveyed annually") for data for these industries. 2 "All industries" plus the part of nonmanufacturing that is surveyed annually. 10 363.08 359.73 418.38 454.93 447.11 461.51 508.22 563.93 591.96 587.93 607.71 123.97 117.35 139.61 152.88 137.95 141.06 163.45 183.80 192.61 182.81 174.02 179 46 186 27 239.11 242.38 278.77 302.05 309.16 320.45 344.77 380.13 399.34 405.12 433.69 202.22 203.82 234.22 257.24 261.40 269.46 292.04 323.60 339.99 345.58 372.58 405.18 430 22 Surveyed annual- ly 3 36.89 38.56 44.55 44.81 47.75 50.99 52.73 56.53 59.35 59.54 61.11 3 Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate. 4 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in October-November 1993, corrected for biases. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES In November, civilian employment rose by 453,000 and unemployment fell by 534,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 12 UNEMPLOYMENT 8 / 4 0 1985 1987 1986 1988 1990 1989 1991 1993 1992 *)6 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Period 1983 1984 1985 1986* 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 . 1992: Nov Dec Civilian employment Unemployment Civilian Noninstitutional population including resident Armed Forces NSA Resident Armed Forces NSA Labor force including resident Armed Forces 175,891 178,080 179,912 182,293 184,490 186,322 188,081 189,686 191,329 193,142 1,676 1,697 1,706 1,706 1,737 1,709 1,688 1,637 1,564 1,566 113,226 115,241 117,167 119,540 121,602 123,378 125,557 126,424 126,867 128,548 102,510 106,702 108,856 111,303 114,177 116,677 119,030 119,550 118,440 119,164 111,550 113,544 115,461 117,834 119,865 121,669 123,869 124,787 125,303 126,982 100,834 105,005 107,150 109,597 112,440 114,968 117,342 117,914 116,877 117,598 3,383 3,321 3,179 3,163 3,208 3,169 3,199 3,186 3,233 3,207 97,450 101,685 103,971 106,434 109,232 111,800 114,142 114,728 113,644 114,391 5,997 5,512 5,334 5,345 5,122 4,965 4,657 4,860 5,767 6,116 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,237 7,425 6,701 6,528 6,874 8,426 9,384 4,210 2,737 2,305 2,232 1,983 1,610 1,375 1,504 2,323 3,354 64.0 64.4 64.8 65.3 65.6 65.9 66.5 66.4 66.0 66.3 57.9 59.5 60.1 60.7 61.5 62.3 63.0 62.7 61.6 61.4 193,847 194,026 1,531 1,517 128,896 129,108 119,595 119,828 127,365 127,591 118,064 118,311 3,209 3,262 114,855 115,049 6,230 6,063 9,301 9,280 3,446 3,605 66.2 66.3 61.4 61.5 194,159 194,298 194,456 194,618 194,767 194,933 195,104 195,275 195,453 195,626 195,791 1,515 1,512 1,497 1,492 1,484 1,477 1,471 1,482 1,482 1,475 1,470 128,598 128,839 128,926 128,833 129,615 129,604 129,541 129,852 129,457 130,189 130,103 119,586 1 19,963 120,062 119,908 120,757 120,696 120,772 121,192 120,939 121,403 121,851 127,083 127,327 127,429 127,341 128,131 128,127 128,070 128,370 127,975 128,714 128,633 118,071 118,451 118,565 118,416 119,273 119,219 119,301 119,710 119,457 119,928 120,381 3,191 3,116 3,082 3,060 3,070 3,024 3,039 2,980 3,095 2,991 3,138 114,879 115,335 115,483 115,356 116,203 116,195 116,262 116,729 116,362 116,936 117,243 5,887 6,242 5,965 6,238 6,268 6,176 6,255 6,287 6,251 5,931 5,813 9,013 8,876 8,864 8,925 8,858 8,908 8,769 8,661 8,517 8,786 8,252 3,317 3,143 3,073 2,926 3,004 2,849 3,037 3,032 3,113 3,105 3,018 66.0 66.0 66.0 65.9 66.3 66.2 66.1 66.2 66.0 66.3 66.2 61.3 61.4 61.4 61.3 61.7 61.6 61.6 61.8 61.6 61.8 61.9 Employment including resident Armed Forces Nonagricultural Civilian labor force Total Agricultural Total Part time for economic reasons 1 15 Total weeks and over Labor force participation rate (percent) 2 Employment/ population ratio (percent) 2 1993: Feb Mar July . ... Sept Oct Nov 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc. 2 Civilian labor force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population. "Data beginning January 1986 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of change in estimation procedures. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In November, the civilian unemployment rate fell to 6.4 percent from 6.8 percent in October. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 25 15 BLACK 10 10 ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS \ WHITE 1991 1989 1992 1993 * UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CiVIUAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) Period 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Unemployment rate, all workers l All civilian workers Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over Both sexes 16-19 years 9.6 8.9 7.5 7.2 7.0 6.2 5.5 5.3 5.5 6.7 7.4 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.4 4.8 4.5 4.9 6.3 7.0 8.1 6.8 22.4 18.9 .... 9.5 7.4 7.1 6.9 6.1 5.4 5.2 5.4 6.6 7.3 6.6 6.2 5.4 4.9 4.7 4.8 5.7 6.3 1992: Nov .... Dec 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 6.9 6.8 1993: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June ... July Aug Sept Oct Nov .... 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.3 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.9 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 5.8 1 2 White Black and other Black Experienced wage and salary workers 9.2 7.1 • 6.8 11.6 10.4 10.0 10.1 11.1 12.7 19.5 15.9 15.1 14.5 13.0 11.7 11.4 11.3 12.4 14.1 6.4 6.3 12.6 12.8 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.8 6.2 5.6 12.9 12.0 12.0 12.5 11.7 12.0 11.7 11.6 11.5 10.7 11.3 18.6 18.3 16.9 15.3 15.0 15.5 18.6 20.0 8.4 6.5 6.2 6.0 17.8 14.4 13.7 13.1 5.3 4.7 4.5 4.7 6.0 6.5 6.2 6.4 20.2 19.2 6.4 6.0 5.7 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.8 19.7 19.6 19.5 20.7 19.7 19.8 18.2 18.2 17.4 19.4 18.1 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces. Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as per- 12 By selected groups By race By sex and age Married men, spouse present Women who maintain families Fulltime workers Parttime workers 10.4 9.3 9.3 9.1 8.4 7.6 7.3 7.4 8.3 9.2 10.9 8.6 8.1 7.9 7.1 6.3 5.9 6.2 7.6 8.3 7.0 6.9 9.2 9.7 8.3 8.1 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.0 9.3 9.1 8.9 9.7 8.4 8.9 8.3 8.4 8.6 9.1 8.7 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.2 12.2 6.6 5.8 5.2 5.0 5.3 6.5 7.1 6.5 4.6 4.3 4.4 3.9 3.3 3.0 3.4 4.4 5.0 10.3 10.4 9.8 9.2 8.1 8.1 8.2 9.1 9.9 9.5 7.2 6.8 6.6 5.8 5,2 4.9 5.2 6.5 7.1 14.0 14.2 7.0 7.0 4.9 4.8 10.4 10.3 14.2 13.1 13.5 13.8 12.9 13.3 12.9 12.5 12.6 11.7 12.5 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.4 6.1 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.0 10.6 10.2 9.0 9.6 9.9 9.8 9.8 8.7 8.7 9.3 8.9 cent of potentially available labor force hours. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor force time lost (percent) 2 SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In November, there were decreases in the percentages of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 15-26 weeks; there were increases in the percentages for 5-14 weeks and for 27 weeks and over. The mean duration of unemployment rose to 19.3 weeks and the median duration rose to 8.7 weeks. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 70 REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT JOB LOSERS REENTRANTS I/ 10 _ ^ _ — , ' 1990 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Reason for unemployment: percent distribution Duration of unemployment Unemployment (thousands) Period State programs Number of weeks Percent distribution Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Median 36.4 33.3 39.2 42.1 41.9 43.7 46.0 48.6 46.1 40.1 34.9 33.2 32.6 36.1 36.5 35.5 38.2 37.7 36.8 37.0 34.5 35.2 36.1 34.8 31.0 27.4 28.7 30.2 31.0 29.6 30.0 30.3 32.0 32.3 29.4 30.2 28.8 27.4 28.1 29.4 28.4 28.2 31.3 28.7 30.6 28.5 28.8 29.0 16.0 15.4 12.9 12.3 12.7 12.7 12.0 11.2 11.8 14.5 15.2 15.3 16.5 15.5 13.9 14.4 14.5 14.3 12.9 14.6 14.9 15.9 15.5 14.6 16.6 23.9 19.1 15.4 14.4 14.0 12.1 9.9 10.1 13.0 20.6 21.4 22.1 21.1 21.5 20.7 18.8 19.8 19.1 19.7 20.0 20.3 19.7 21.7 15.6 20.0 18.2 15.6 15.0 14.5 13.5 11.9 12.1 13.8 17.9 18.4 19.2 18.7 18.3 17.5 17.4 17.6 17.6 17.9 18.3 18.5 18.6 19.3 8.7 10.1 7.9 6.8 6.9 6.5 5.9 4.8 5.4 6.9 8.8 9.4 9.4 8.5 8.2 8.3 8.5 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.4 9.1 8.3 8.7 Job losers Job leavers Reentrants New entrants 22.3 22.5 25.6 27.1 26.2 26.6 27.0 28.2 27.4 24.8 23.7 23.6 24.1 26.1 25.9 23.0 24.3 25.9 25.0 23.9 23.8 24.1 23.7 25.1 11.1 11.3 13.0 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.2 10.4 9.5 8.9 9.5 10.0 10.0 10.7 10.0 10.5 10.5 10.2 9.7 9.8 9.5 9.8 9.7 10.0 Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) 1 Weekly average, thousands 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1992- Nov Dec 1993' Jan Feb Mar May July Sept Oct Nov .. . . . 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 8,237 7,425 6,701 6,528 6,874 8,426 9,384 9,301 9,280 9,013 8,876 8,864 8,925 8,858 8,908 8,769 8,661 8,517 8,786 8,252 1 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), and Federal (UCFE). Railroad (RR) programs included through 1991. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program. 58.7 58.4 51.8 49.8 48.9 48.0 46.1 45.7 48.3 54.7 56.4 55.9 55.4 54.0 52.3 54.2 53.9 52.9 54.6 56.1 57.0 55.3 55.4 53.2 7.9 7.7 9.6 10.6 12.3 13.0 14.7 15.7 14.8 11.6 10.4 10.5 10.5 9.1 11.8 12.3 11.3 10.9 10.6 10.2 9.6 10.8 11.3 11.7 4,061 3,396 2,476 2,611 2,650 2,332 2,081 2,158 2,522 3,342 3,245 2,937 2,783 2,715 2,640 2,701 2,764 2,770 2,813 2,832 2,796 2,810 2,806 "2,780 583 438 377 396 378 328 310 330 388 447 408 359 341 353 343 362 347 341 343 352 327 328 344 339 4,594 3,775 2,561 2,693 2,746 2,401 2,135 2,205 2,575 3,406 3,339 2,670 3,064 3,390 3,344 3,394 2,929 2,597 2,806 2,655 2,721 2,421 r 2,316 2,555 Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 208,000 in November. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) 32 110 30 ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 100 90 80 SERVICE-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 22 RETAIL TRADE -V 20 60 20 50 40 GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES t! 20 r~/~~~ CONST iucrioN I III 1991 n n ill mi I Mil II I ' 1993 1989 1990 MM1I 11111 1991 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR i H 1 1 1 1 n ii 1992 1 1 1 1 1i 1 1 M 1993 h ^ COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers; l seasonally adjusted] Goods-producing industries Period 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1992: Nov.... Deo 1993: Jan Feb Mar Apr May.... June ... July.... Aug ... Sept ... Total nonagricultural employment 90,152 94,408 97,387 99,344 101,958 105,210 107,895 109,419 108,256 108,519 108,921 109,079 109,235 109,539 109,565 109,820 110,058 110,101 110,338 110,305 110,502 Oct "... 1 10,649 Nov ".. 110,857 Service-producing industries Manufacturing Total 2 Con- Total 23,330 24,718 24,842 24,533 24,674 25,125 25,254 24,905 23,745 23,142 22,995 22,985 23,001 23,069 23,016 22,980 23,006 22,941 22,948 22,903 22,886 22,930 22,986 3,946 4,380 4,668 4,810 4,958 5,098 5,171 5,120 4,650 4,471 4,462 4,459 4,454 4,515 4,481 4,517 4,577 4,574 4,593 4,593 4,592 4,625 4,652 18,432 19,372 19,248 18,947 18,999 19,314 19,391 19,076 18,406 18,040 17,917 17,913 17,936 17,954 17,935 17,863 17,827 17,771 17,760 17,718 17,698 17,710 17,740 D hi goods 10,707 11,476 11,458 11,195 11,154 11,363 11,394 11,109 10,569 10,237 10,142 10,136 10,152 10,163 10,144 10,090 10,047 10,011 9,996 9,974 9,974 9,988 10,012 Nondurable goods 7,725 7,896 7,790 7,752 7,845 7,951 7,997 7,968 7,837 7,804 7,775 7,777 7,784 7,791 7,791 7,773 7,780 7,760 7,764 7,744 7,724 7,722 7,728 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they arc not at work because of industrial disputes, bad 14 Total Transportation and public utilities 66,821 69,690 72,544 74,811 4,952 5,156 5,233 5,247 77,284 80,086 82,642 84,514 84,511 85,377 85,926 86,094 86,234 86,470 86,549 86,840 87,052 87,160 87,390 87,402 87,616 87,719 87,871 5,362 5,514 5,625 5,793 5,762 5,709 5,699 5,707 5,719 5,725 5,724 5,720 5,719 5,711 5,709 5,690 5,692 5,693 5,705 Government Finance, Wholesale trade 5,283 5,568 5,727 5,761 5,848 6,030 6,187 6,173 6,081 6,045 6,061 6,062 6,086 6,097 6,103 6,110 6,125 6,110 6,126 6,107 6,117 6,119 6,130 Retail 15,587 16,512 17,315 17,880 18,422 19,023 19,475 19,601 19,284 19,346 19,405 19,460 19,523 19,629 19,604 19,648 19,702 19,751 19,790 19,795 19,836 19,840 19,823 insurance, and real estate 5,466 5,684 5,948 6,273 6,533 6,630 6,668 6,709 6,646 6,571 6,569 6,575 6,578 6,577 6,574 6,585 6,588 6,590 6,604 6,602 6,616 6,634 6,661 Services Total 19,664 20,746 21,927 22,957 24,110 25,504 26,907 27,934 28,336 29,053 29,430 29,524 29,573 29,665 29,756 29,977 30,099 30,175 30,320 30,381 30,433 30,529 30,634 15,869 16,024 16,394 16,693 17,010 17,386 17,779 18,304 18,402 18,653 18,762 18,766 18,755 18,777 18,788 18,800 18,819 18,823 18,841 18,827 18,922 18,904 18,918 Federal 2,774 2,807 2,875 2,899 2,943 2,971 2,988 3,085 2,966 2,969 2,943 2,968 2,945 2,944 2,938 2,923 2,912 2,901 2,896 2,906 2,901 2,910 2,909 weather, etc., even if they arc not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. 2 Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average weekly hours Total private nonagricutturai * Period 1983 1984.. 1985 1986.. 1987 1988.. 1989 1990.. 1991 1992.. 1992: Nov Dec 1993: Jan Feb Mar .. May , } July " •> Sept Oct * Nov f Total Average gross weekly earnings Average gross hourly earnings Manufacturing Overtime Current dollars Current dollars Total private nonagricultural 1 Total private nonagricultural * 1982 dollars z Manufacturing Current dollars 1982 dollars 2 Manufacturing Construction Retail trade Percent change from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural 3 Current dollars 1982 dollars 35.0 35.2 34.9 34.8 34.8 34.7 34.6 34.5 34.3 34.4 40.1 40.7 40.5 40.7 41.0 41.1 41.0 40.8 40.7 41.0 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.8 $8.02 8.32 8.57 8.76 8.98 9.28 9.66 10.01 10.32 10.58 $7.79 7.80 7.77 7.81 7.73 7.69 7.64 7.52 7.45 7.42 $8.83 9.19 9.54 9.73 9.91 10.19 10.48 10.83 11.18 11.46 $280.70 292.86 299.09 304.85 312.50 322.02 334.24 345.35 353.98 363.95 $272.52 274.73 271.16 271.94 269.16 266.79 264.22 259.47 255.40 255.22 $354.08 374.03 386.37 396.01 406.31 418.81 429.68 441.86 455.03 469.86 $442.97 458.51 464.46 466.75 480.44 495.73 513.17 526.01 533.40 537.70 $171.05 174.33 174.64 176.08 178.70 183.62 188.72 194.40 198.48 205.34 5.0 4.3 2.1 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.8 3.3 2.5 2.8 2.0 .8 1.3 .3 10 -.9 10 -1.8 -1.6 34.6 34.3 41.2 41.2 3.9 3.9 10.69 10.68 7.41 7.40 11.55 11.58 369.87 366.32 256.50 253.68 475.86 477.10 537.89 535.72 207.79 207.65 3.3 1.9 .3 -1.0 34.5 34.4 34.2 34.4 34.7 34.4 34.5 34.7 34.3 34.5 34.6 41.4 41.4 41.2 41.5 41.4 41.2 41.4 41.4 41.5 41.6 41.7 4.0 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.4 10.73 10.74 10.78 10.77 10.82 10.81 10.81 10.86 10.86 10.92 10.94 7.40 7.38 7.39 7.36 7.39 7.38 7.37 7.39 7.39 7.40 7.40 11.61 11.64 11.66 11.71 11.71 11.72 11.72 11.77 11.84 11.83 11.88 370.19 369.46 368.68 370.49 375.45 371.86 372.95 376.84 372.50 376.74 378.52 255.30 253.92 252.87 253.24 256.28 253.83 254.40 256.53 253.57 255.24 256.10 480.65 481.90 480.39 485.97 484.79 482.86 485.21 487.28 491.36 492.13 495.40 534.96 538.94 544.07 541.21 556.39 551.32 559.77 558.33 551.14 551.90 562.77 208.22 208.08 205.01 208.80 211.41 209.66 209.66 210.97 209.95 212.13 211.68 3.4 2.2 2.0 2.8 3.4 2.6 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.5 .2 -.9 -1.0 -.3 .2 -.2 .2 .1 .5 .4 -.0 1 2 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (on a 1982=100 base). J 3 Based on seasonally unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY Percent change from Index (June 1989 = 100) 3 months earlier Period Total compensation Wages and salaries 80.1 84.0 87.3 90.1 93.1 97.6 102.3 107.0 111.7 115.6 81.4 84.8 88.3 91.1 94.1 98.0 102.0 106.1 110.0 112.9 106.2 107.2 108.4 109.7 110.9 111.9 113.0 113.8 114.7 115.7 116.9 117.9 118.9 105.4 106.2 107.3 108.4 109.2 110.1 110.9 111.5 112.2 113.0 113.9 114.6 115.6 Benefits ' Total compensation Wages and salaries 12 months earlier Benefits ' Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits ' Not seasonally adjusted 1983198419851986198719881989' 1990' 19911992: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec . .. . ... 76.7 81.7 84.6 87.5 90.5 96.7 102.6 109.4 116.2 122.2 1.3 1.1 1.3 .6 .7 .6 1.0 1.1 .8 .6 .7 1.2 .6 .6 .6 1.0 .8 .7 .6 .6 1.3 1.4 .5 .6 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 .9 .8 1.0 .8 1.0 1.0 .7 .8 .7 .5 .6 .7 .8 .6 .9 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.7 1.4 .8 Seasonally adjusted 1990- Sept Dee 1991: Mar Sept Dec 1992- Mar Sept Dec 1993- Mar Sept 1 ... .... . ... . Employer costs for employee benefits. NOTE.—The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries. 108.3 109.9 111.3 113.3 115.1 116.7 118.2 119.6 121.2 122.7 124.8 126.6 127.6 1.0 .9 1.1 1.2 1.1 .9 1.0 .7 .8 .9 1.0 .9 .8 5.7 4.9 3.9 3.2 3.3 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.4 3.5 4.9 4.2 4.1 3.2 3.3 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.7 2.6 7.4 6.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 6.9 6.1 6.6 6.2 5.2 Not seasonally adjusted 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.2 3.7 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.7 3.1 6.8 6.6 5.8 6.2 6.4 6.2 6.3 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.6 5.8 5.4 Data exclude farm and household workers. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output per hour of all persons Period Output * Hours of all persons 2 Compensation per hour 3 Real compensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector 102.3 104.8 106.3 108.5 109.6 110.7 109.9 110.7 111.8 115.5 102.5 104.7 105.6 107.7 108.6 109.6 108.6 109.1 110.3 113.7 104.1 112.6 116.7 119.9 124.8 130.1 132.3 133.3 131.6 135.4 104.4 113.0 116.8 120.1 125.0 130.6 132.7 133.5 131.8 135.4 101.8 107.4 109.8 110.5 113.8 117.5 120.4 120.5 117.7 117.3 101.9 107.9 110.7 111.5 115.1 119.1 122.2 122.4 119.5 119.1 103.8 108.3 113.2 118.9 123.1 128.5 133.0 140.6 147.4 154.9 104.0 108.3 112.8 118.4 122.5 127.7 131.9 139.2 146.2 153.7 100.6 100.6 101.5 r 104.7 104.6 104.8 103.5 103.8 104.5 106.5 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Unit labor costs Implicit price deflator 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 100.8 100.6 101.2 104.3 104.1 104.2 102.7 102.8 103.6 105.7 101.5 103.4 106.5 109.5 112.3 116.0 121.0 127.1 131.9 134.1 101.5 103.4 106.8 110.0 112.8 116.5 121.5 127.6 132.6 135.1 103.4 107.7 111.2 113.6 116.6 120.8 126.1 131.2 136.1 139.2 104.0 107.6 111.6 114.2 117.2 121.4 126.5 131.8 137.0 140.3 Nonfarm business sector 1982 = 100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988....: 1989 1990 1991 1992 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1989: IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV 101.1 103.1 105.4 107.0 108.3 110.6 110.9 109.7 101.1 103.3 105.3 106.0 107.4 109.5 110.0 108.5 100.0 107.5 114.4 118.0 120.6 127.4 131.7 132.3 100.0 108.1 114.8 118.2 120.8 127.6 132.5 132.7 98.9 104.3 108.5 110.2 111.3 115.1 118.8 120.6 99.0 104.7 109.0 111.4 112.5 116.5 120.5 122.3 102.1 105.3 109.9 115.6 120.9 125.8 130.6 134.9 102.1 105.2 109.9 115.0 120.4 125.1 129.8 133.9 100.6 100.5 100.7 102.4 105.6 105.1 104.7 103.4 100.6 100.4 100.7 101.8 105.2 104.6 104.1 102.6 101.0 102.1 104.3 108.0 111.6 113.7 117.9 123.0 101.0 101.9 104.4 108.5 112.2 114.3 118.0 123.4 101.1 104.8 109.0 112.4 114.6 117.9 122.8 127.8 101.4 105.2 109.0 112.9 115.2 118.5 123.4 128.2 1990: III .... IV 110.8 110.5 109.1 108.9 133.3 132.1 133.5 132.2 120.3 119.6 122.4 121.4 141.7 143.5 140.3 142.1 104.0 103.5 102.9 102.5 127.9 129.8 128.6 130.5 131.8 133.2 132.4 134.0 n ni .... I 110.9 111.6 111.8 112.8 109.4 110.2 110.4 111.3 131.0 131.5 131.5 132.4 131.2 131.7 131.8 132.6 118.1 117.8 117.6 117.3 119.9 119.5 119.4 119.2 144.9 146.6 148.2 150.1 143.7 145.4 147.1 148.8 103.6 104.2 104.7 105.2 102.7 103.4 103.9 104.3 130.6 131.4 132.6 133.1 131.3 132.0 133.2 133.7 134.8 135.8 136.6 137.2 135.7 136.6 137.5 138.2 m .... 114.1 114.8 116.0 117.1 112.4 113.1 114.1 115.3 133.3 134.5 136.0 137.9 133.3 134.4 135.9 137.9 116.8 117.1 117.2 117.7 118.7 118.8 119.0 119.6 152.2 153.7 156.1 157.8 150.9 152.6 154.8 156.6 105.8 106.0 106.9 107.3 104.8 105.2 106.0 106.4 133.4 133.9 134.5 134.8 134.3 134.9 135.6 135.8 138.3 139.1 138.7 140.6 139.3 140.2 139.8 141.8 116.6 116.6 117.6 114.8 114.7 115.9 138.0 139.3 140.5 138.1 139.5 141.0 118.3 119.5 119.4 120.3 121.6 121.7 159.1 160.1 161.6 157.7 158.4 159.9 107.1 107.0 107.7 106.2 105.9 106.6 136.4 137.3 137.4 137.4 138.2 138.0 141.6 142.5 142.9 142.7 143.5 144.0 2.5 2.2 .8 2.0 .8 .9 -.9 .4 1.1 3.1 4.1 8.2 3.6 2.8 4.1 4.3 1.7 .7 -1.3 2.9 4.4 8.2 3.4 2.8 4.1 4.4 1.7 .6 13 2.7 -1.4 -.6 -3.0 -3.6 1.5 / 2.5 .6 3.7 1.9 2.7 .8 3.4 4.7 2.5 4.2 3.8 -1.6 -.0 3.6 1991: IV 1992: I II IV 1993: I n HI". Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1990: 2.3 2.4 1.4 2.1 1.0 1.0 -.7 .7 1.0 3.3 III IV 1991: I n m .... IV 1992: I n in .... IV 1993: I n in •*. -1.1 -1.1 1 1.8 5.6 2.1 .6 3.0 3.3 2.5 .1 23 — .4 1.9 5.9 2.5 .8 3.2 3.5 2.6 .2 -2.4 -.4 3.8 4.3 4.5 5.0 3.6 4.4 3.5 5.7 4.9 5.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 5.0 3.5 4.2 3.3 5.5 5.0 5.1 0.6 .0 .9 3.1 -.1 .2 -1.3 .3 .6 2.0 0.8 -.2 .6 3.1 -.2 .1 -1.4 .1 .8 2.0 1.5 1.9 3.0 2.8 2.5 3.4 4.3 5.0 3.8 1.7 1.5 1.9 3.3 2.9 2.6 3.2 4.3 5.1 3.9 2.0 3.4 4.1 3.3 2.2 2.6 3.6 4.4 4.1 3.7 2.3 4.0 3.5 3.7 2.4 2.6 3.6 4.2 4.2 3.9 2.4 -3.1 -3.8 -1.9 -2.5 -1.7 -3.2 5.5 4.9 5.6 5.4 -1.1 -1.8 -1.1 -1.4 6.7 6.1 7.1 6.1 3.7 4.5 4.0 5.0 -3.3 1.4 .1 2.7 -3.1 1.5 .3 2.7 -4.7 -1.1 -.5 -1.0 -4.9 -1.1 -.6 — .7 4.1 4.8 4.5 5.2 4.4 4.9 4.6 4.9 A 2.5 1.8 1.9 .6 2.7 1.9 1.6 2.5 2.2 3.8 1.4 2.5 2.2 3.7 1.5 4.8 3.1 2.4 1.7 4.9 2.7 2.6 2.2 3.8 2.8 3.6 4.2 2.9 3.4 4.6 5.6 2.1 3.3 4.4 6.0 -1.8 1.0 .4 1.8 -1.6 .5 .8 1.8 5.7 4.1 6.2 4.6 5.6 4.7 5.9 4.6 2.3 .9 3.4 1.4 2.2 1.5 3.1 1.4 .9 1.6 1.9 .7 1.7 1.8 2.2 .4 3.3 2.4 -1.2 5.6 3.2 2.7 -1.1 5.6 -1.8 — .4 4.3 .5 3.8 3.5 .6 4.0 4.4 2.1 3.8 2.5 4.4 .1 3.3 2.5 3.9 2.9 1.9 3.7 5 -.4 2.7 g -1.0 2.5 5.0 2.5 .3 4.8 2.3 -.6 2.7 2.6 1.2 2.5 2.4 1.2 ^ Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1987 dollars. 2 Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid (amity workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed. 4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U). 5 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. 16 NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. 'Third quarter 1993 data are based on GDP release of December I , 1993. The GDP data shown elsewhere in this issue of Economic Indicators were released on December 22, 1993. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production and capacity utilization rose in November. INDE <, 1 987 = 1 00 * (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1 987 = 1 00" (RATIO SCALE) 150 130 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FINAL PRODUCTS J 120 130 ^ 110 ^ "~1 _^-~^V~/" V_ rO . —— \ ^S"T ~^\~^ 100 130 MANUFACTURING ~" ^.' 120 90 , — — — -" r^~s" f^,—-'' . CONSlJMER \ GOC DS % N *X *x 80 / 100 7" J~ /iND SPACE E QUIPMENT ^~' ^ ""^-1 >*~>...— tZ^^^Zp- w^-^ -'~V 1 M 1 ll 1 1 1 1 1 1M 1 1 1 t l 1 11 V^ 120 T^ It 1 1 1 II 1 1 1 1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ll 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 ! 110 s^ BUSINESS NONDURABLE 90 1 ! 1 1 1 1 I M 1 1 1 1 1 1 l! M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ll 1 1 1 1 ! f 1 11 i h|< 1 1 1 1 i til 1 1 1 1 1 70 UTILITIES AND MINING 120 110 100 90 i / r^."'' i 1 11 1 1 1 11 1 11 1989 / ~s\ A /v^-'y-. ' 1 84 ^^_^ 82 78 . MINING , n 1 1 1 i t I u 1 1 1 ill 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i H ill ill 1 1 M 1 1 1 n 1 1 76 / \j —y'^ ^ 1 1 1 1 1 In i n 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 11 1989 1992 1993 " /| \ 80 ^^^T-S^^A— V/N/~ 1991 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 11 ^^CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE (TOTAL INDUSTRY) A'"- UTILITIES 1990 1 mill inn l||ll|lllll ll 1 1 ll 1 1 H 1 PER :ENT* 86 130 I M 1 ll 1 1 | |l| ] | j | 1 1| 11 111 1| t1 l1 1990 1991 ' * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 1992 11 n 1993 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Total industrial production Period Index, 1987 = 100 Industry production indexes, 1987=100 Capacity utilization rate, percent J Manufacturing Percent change from year earlier Mining Durable Total Utilities Nondurable Total industry Manufacturing 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 84.9 92.8 94.4 95.3 100.0 104.4 106.0 106.0 104.1 106.5 3.7 9.3 1.7 .9 4.9 4.4 1.5 .0 -1.8 2.3 80.9 89.3 91.6 94.3 100.0 104.7 106.4 106.1 103.7 106.9 76.8 88.4 91.8 93.9 100.0 106.6 108.6 107.4 103.8 108.1 87.0 90.8 91.5 94.9 100.0 102.3 103.7 104.4 103.5 105.4 104.8 111.9 109.0 101.0 100.0 101.3 100.0 102.0 100.4 97.6 93.6 97.0 99.5 96.3 100.0 105.0 108.7 109.9 112.2 112.0 75.8 81.1 80.3 79.2 81.5 83.7 83.6 82.1 79.2 79.8 74.9 80.4 79.5 79.1 81.6 83.6 83.1 81.1 77.8 78.8 1992- Nov Dec 108.4 108.9 3.2 4.0 108.9 109.2 110.9 111.8 106.4 106.0 97.8 98.2 114.7 116.8 80.8 81.0 79.7 79.8 1993: Jan Feb Mar Apr May 109.3 109.9 110.1 110.4 110.2 110.5 110.8 111.0 111.4 112.2 113.2 4.6 4.4 4.3 3.9 3.3 4.2 3.7 4.1 4.9 4.4 4.4 109.9 110.5 110.8 111.4 111.3 111.3 111.6 111.9 112.4 113.2 114.4 112.9 113.8 114.1 115.0 114.9 114.6 115.4 115.7 116.9 118.2 119.8 106.4 106.4 106.6 106.9 106.9 107.2 107.0 107.3 106.9 107.1 107.7 98.3 95.9 95.3 96.4 97.3 98.0 96.4 95.5 97.5 98.0 97.7 112.8 117.5 117.8 114.4 112.1 114.9 116.9 117.7 115.3 115.6 116.0 81.2 81.5 81.6 81.7 81.5 81.5 81.7 81.7 81.9 82.4 83.0 80.3 80.5 80.6 80.9 80.7 80.6 80.7 80.8 81.1 81.5 82.2 1983 1984 July Aug r .. . Sept r Oct r .... Nov" 1 Output as percent of capacity. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1987=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Materials Products Intermediate products Final products Equipment Consumer goods Period Total Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total ' Business Defense and space equipment Total Construction supplies Business supplies Total Energy 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 . 1992 83.0 91.0 94.2 95.7 100.0 104.8 106.8 107.0 105.3 108.2 88.8 92.8 93.7 96.8 100.0 102.9 104.0 103.4 102.8 105.2 79.7 91.0 91.6 94.5 100.0 104.6 106.6 102.3 95.2 102.5 91.9 93.4 94.4 97.6 100.0 102.4 103.2 103.8 105.0 105.9 76.8 89.2 94.8 94.5 100.0 107.6 110.9 112.1 108.9 112.7 71.9 85.4 91.1 93.1 100.0 110.7 115.5 116.9 115.7 123.2 71.8 78.9 89.4 96.0 100.0 99.7 100.1 98.8 91.7 85.9 80.3 86.2 88.3 91.9 100.0 101.8 102.0 101.2 96.5 97.6 80.2 86.2 89.1 93.8 100.0 101.5 100.5 98.2 90.7 93.8 80.3 86.2 87.7 90.7 100.0 102.0 103.0 103.2 100.4 100.1 88.3 96.6 96.6 95.9 100.0 105.0 106.7 106.8 105.5 107.9 98.9 103.8 103.4 99.5 100.0 102.2 103.1 104.2 104.6 103.4 1992- Nov Dec 111.0 111.5 107.1 107.5 105.7 107.9 107.5 107.4 116.7 117.2 129.0 129.6 83.2 82.5 98.1 98.3 95.1 94.5 100.0 100.8 109.3 110.0 103.9 105.1 1993: Jan Feb Mar 111.9 112.4 112.7 112.8 112.5 112.7 113.2 113 5 114.0 115.0 116.0 107.6 108.5 108.6 108.1 107.3 107.3 107.7 107.8 107.9 109.1 110.0 110.9 111.3 111.5 112.2 110.8 107.9 108.6 107.9 109.3 113.6 116.9 106.7 107.7 107.7 106.9 106.3 107.2 107.4 107.8 107.5 107.8 108.0 118.1 118.0 118.7 119.7 119.9 120.4 121.2 121.6 122.8 123.5 124.8 131.2 131.7 133.4 134.8 135.4 136.1 137.1 137.6 139.3 140.4 142.3 82.0 81.5 80.7 80.5 79.5 78.6 78.6 78.0 77.5 76.9 76.7 98.2 99.3 99.6 100.0 99.7 99.4 100.4 100.6 100.4 100.4 101.2 94.8 97.5 96.4 96.4 97.7 96.8 98.4 98.7 99.3 99.6 100.8 100.5 100.5 101.8 102.5 101.0 101.1 101.7 101.8 101.2 101.0 101.5 110.4 110.9 110.9 111.5 111.6 112.1 112.0 112.2 112.6 113.4 114.3 103.4 103.8 103.5 103.4 103.4 104.6 103.7 102.8 103.3 104.0 103.8 May July Sept * Oct '. Nov" 1 Includes oil and gas well drilling and manufactured homes, not shown separately. [1987 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Nondurable manufactures Durable manufactures Period Total Iron and steel Transportation equipment Fabricated metal products Industrial and commercial machinery and computer equipment 1 Electrical machinery Primary metals Total Motor vehicles and parts Lumber and products Apparel products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products Foods 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 . . 1990 1991 1992 91.0 102.4 101.8 93.7 100.0 108.7 107.2 106.5 98.4 101.1 96.1 105.9 104.5 90.8 100.0 112.7 111.2 111.5 100.6 104.7 85.5 93.3 94.5 93.8 100.0 104.2 102.8 99.5 94.9 96.7 64.3 80.8 86.8 90.3 100.0 113.0 117.3 117.6 113.7 124.8 80.3 94.1 93.1 94.3 100.0 108.5 111.0 111.4 112.8 119.8 72.7 83.1 91.8 96.9 100.0 105.2 109.6 107.0 101.8 102.6 74.5 90.6 99.0 98.5 100.0 105.7 106.9 101.0 94.3 104.8 79.9 86.0 88.0 95.1 100.0 100.1 99.4 97.1 90.5 96.4 93.8 95.7 92.6 96.3 100.0 98.1 95,0 92.2 91.9 92.3 79.0 84.5 87.6 90.6 100.0 100.9 101.1 100.8 96.8 95.0 87.5 91.4 91.4 94.6 100.0 106.0 109.2 111.8 111.3 115.0 90.1 92.1 94.9 97.4 100.0 101.5 102.5 103.7 105.3 106.0 1992- Nov Dec 101.6 102.4 103.6 107.4 97.6 97.8 132.8 133.8 124.4 124.8 103.6 106.3 109.9 116.2 99.8 98.0 92.9 92.7 94.2 94.7 117.7 116.7 106.4 106.2 1993- Jan Feb Mar 102.8 108.0 104.2 104.4 104.2 105.7 105.3 106.2 105.8 106.1 106 3 107.0 112.9 107.6 108.4 108.1 110.9 111.9 112.1 111.1 112.3 112.3 99.8 99.7 100.3 101.4 100.6 100.1 101.2 101.0 101.1 101.6 102.2 135.0 136.7 139.6 142.8 144.2 145.4 148.5 149.9 151.8 153.1 155.2 125.8 127.1 128.5 129.0 129.7 130.1 132.3 133.5 135.4 136.9 138.7 108.4 107.8 106.9 106.9 105.5 102.6 100.8 100.4 102.1 106.1 109.5 120.9 120.7 120.1 120.4 118.1 114.3 110.1 110.0 114.3 123.7 132.0 99.3 101.8 98.0 98.1 97.4 96.5 99.1 99.9 100.9 102.4 103.7 93.1 92.5 92.1 92.0 91.2 91.1 90.7 90.6 89.5 89.1 88.9 94.7 94.0 94.7 95.6 94.7 94.5 93.8 93.4 93.7 93.6 93.9 116.8 116.2 117.6 117.8 118.1 119.1 118.7 119.1 118.5 118.4 118.6 105.9 106.9 106.7 106.7 106.7 107.1 107.2 107.8 107.7 108.3 108.6 May July Sept r Oct ' Nov " 1 Formerly nonelectrical machinery. 18 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Construction contracts 3 Private Period Total new construction expenditures Residential Total New housing units Total ' Commercial and industrial 2 Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1987 = 100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) Billions of dollars 1983 1984 294.9 348.8 377.4 407.7 419.4 432.3 443.6 442.1 403.4 436.0 .... 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989. 1990 1991 1992 231.5 278.6 299.5 323.1 328.7 337.5 345.5 334.7 293.5 317.3 125.5 153.8 158.5 187.1 194.7 198.1 196.6 182.9 157.8 187.8 94.6 113.8 114.7 133.2 139.9 138.9 139.2 128.0 110.6 129.6 57.7 74.0 89.8 84.4 84.0 88.0 94.3 96.4 77.0 65.8 48.2 50.8 51.3 51.6 50.1 51.5 54.6 55.4 58.7 63.7 75 83 91 96 100 101 105 95 89 97 63.5 70.2 77.8 84.6 90.6 94.8 98.1 107.5 109.9 118.8 756 955 1,097 1,016 1,019 973 961 783 577 544 Annual rates Annual rates 1992: Oct Nov Dec 442.6 449.3 455.2 324.8 328.2 335.4 194.6 199.3 206.4 132.1 135.4 138.9 65.0 64.0 63.6 65.3 64.8 65.3 117.7 121.1 119.9 106 98 96 546 510 511 1993: 451.3 453.8 454.5 449.1 453.3 460.7 465.3 467.1 474.1 485.8 335.5 334.8 337.0 328.1 332.2 335.0 336.7 339.8 343.4 350.3 207.2 205.7 205.5 197.3 198.4 200.5 203.9 205.7 208.1 214.6 141.8 142.9 141.8 137.7 138.3 139.3 141.0 142.9 145.4 150.5 64.4 66.4 67.4 65.6 67.4 67.1 65.7 66.9 68.0 67.9 63.9 62.7 64.0 65.2 66.4 67.4 67.1 67.2 67.2 67.9 115.8 119.0 117.5 120.9 121.0 125.7 128.6 127.3 130.7 135.5 103 99 96 100 94 105 103 102 103 103 443 479 524 548 489 520 587 534 522 567 Jan Feb Mar May July Sept Oct " 1 2 3 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. Includes residential improvements, not shown separately. Includes hotels and motels. F.W. Dodge series. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New private homes New private housing units Units started, by type of structure Period Total 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 . 1992 . 1 unit 2-4 units 113.5 121.4 93.4 84.0 65.3 58.8 55.2 37.5 35.6 30.7 5 or more units 522.0 544.0 576.1 542.0 408.7 348.0 317.6 260.4 137.9 139.0 1,703.0 1,749.5 1,741.8 1,805.4 1,620.5 1,488.1 1,376.1 1,192.7 1,013.9 1,199.7 1,067.6 1,084.2 1,072.4 1,179.4 1,146.4 1,081.3 1,003.3 894.8 840.4 1,029.9 1,226 1,226 1,286 1,079 1,089 1,133 18 28 32 129 109 121 1,171 1,180 1,124 1,206 1,248 1,248 1,232 1,328 1,371 1,378 1,432 1,051 1,036 987 1,059 1,107 1,079 1,064 1,183 1,166 1,214 1,269 26 24 32 26 26 31 54 17 33 32 38 94 120 105 121 115 138 114 128 172 132 125 Units authorized Units completed Homes sold Homes for sale at end of period ' Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 2 1,390.3 1,652.2 1,703.3 1,756.4 1,668.8 1,529.8 1,422.8 1,308.0 1,090.8 1,157.5 623 639 688 750 671 676 650 534 509 610 301 353 346 357 366 368 365 321 284 265 5.7 5.9 6.5 7.3 7.7 7.7 7.4 7.2 7.4 7.4 1,141 1,136 1,196 1,137 1,229 1,227 637 615 662 264 262 265 7.1 1,157 1,141 1,034 1,101 1,121 1,115 1,162 1,242 1,271 1,304 1,374 1,136 1,241 1,108 1,222 1,129 1,158 1,088 1,256 1,167 1,239 603 597 602 689 629 641 647 632 726 679 266 268 270 271 274 274 276 288 290 297 1,605.2 1,681.8 1,733.3 1,769.4 1,534.8 1,455.6 1,338.4 1,110.8 948.8 1,094.9 Seasonally adjusted annu a! rates 1992- Oct Nov Dec Feb Mar May July Sept r Oct r Nov " 1 2 Seasonally adjusted. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1989 not comparable with earlier data. 7.9 7.6 7.1 NOTE.—Beginning 1984, units authorized are for 17,000 permit-issuing places; for 1978-83 data are for 16,000 places. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade In October, manufacturing and trade sales rose 0.5 percent and inventories rose $0.3 billion. In November, according to advance data, retail sales rose 0.4 percent, following a rise of 1.8 percent in October. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS • (RATIO SCALE) 300 900 =,- 800 _* —T-t 1 ' 1 ~ 250 M/ .NUFACTURIf <IG AND T JADE INVEN UklbS 700 RETAIL INVENTORIES. 200 600 —' 500 --'—»~'- V \ 150 M, VNUFACTURIh4G Ah D TRADE SA ES RETAIL SALES 400 100 1 1 1 1 1 1 h1 1 1 1 I l l l ill II 300 RATIO INVENTORY-SALES RATIO 1.70 RETAIL 1.60 /"^ y\ 200 1 II M i l l III 1989 II Illl 1 Illl 1990 1 1 tl 1M 1 111 Minium 1992 1991 V ^*\ MANUFACTURING ANDTf AUt 1.40 imilm ii kCT>"i/ -s ~\ --—-—* *\ x^\Y \ 1.50 1 1 1 1 il 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II I l l l l l l l 1 1.30 1989 1993 1990 1 1 1 1 1 1 M M 1 1 1 ! 1 1 11 1 1 11 1991 1992 1993 COUNCIt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturing and trade ' Period Sales 2 Inventories 3 Inventory-sales ratio 4 Retail Wholesale Inventories 3 Sales 2 Sales 2 Inventories 3 Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Total Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Manufacturing and trade l Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1992- Oct ' Nov Dec 1993- Jan Feb Mar May July Sept r. Oct* Nov p 1 2 r 370,501 411,427 423,940 431,786 459,107 497,031 523,729 543,097 538,609 560,383 591,875 651,551 665,835 664,624 711,725 767,538 813,793 837,445 833,518 849,117 100,440 113,502 114,816 116,326 124,340 135,357 144,158 149,489 147,635 152,337 131,663 144,223 149,155 155,445 165,814 180,519 188,539 196,901 201,285 209,232 97,514 107,243 114,586 120,803 128,442 138,133 146,847 154,149 155,456 163,535 566,536 569,674 581,061 845,196 846,374 849,117 154,211 154,032 155,297 206,655 208,424 209,232 581,584 584,903 583,575 584,943 587,930 589,990 585,626 592,598 595,804 598,766 851,190 854,715 859,094 862,478 864,198 864,227 863,612 865,939 867,395 867,733 159,507 158,987 157,206 159,291 162,187 159,095 160,531 161,459 160,710 159,902 210,139 169,232 209,765 169,116 210,503 167,390 211,860 170,538 212,190 171,736 212,058 172,596 213,244 173,415 215,199 174,583 215,103 175,006 214,128 ' 178,198 178,926 r 166,866 167,117 169,155 See page 21 for manufacturing. Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. 20 64,943 69,369 73,075 75,746 80,453 85,664 91,974 98,230 100,965 104,777 147,833 167,812 181,881 186,510 207,836 219,597 238,343 241,476 245,885 260,647 68,856 79,074 88,315 89,983 105,481 112,505 121,448 121,338 119,828 131,549 78,977 88,738 93,566 96,527 102,355 107,092 116,895 120,138 126,057 129,098 1.56 1.53 1.55 1.55 1.50 1.49 1.53 1.53 1.54 1.50 1.44 1.49 1.52 1.56 1.56 1.54 1.59 1.56 1.55 1.55 60,704 106,162 ' 60,503 r 106,614 61,873 107,282 255,446 256,895 260,647 127,544 128,884 131,549 127,902 128,011 129,098 1.49 1.49 1.46 1.53 1.54 1.54 62,216 60,978 60,723 62,804 63,771 64,527 65,232 66,277 65,798 r 68,117 68,764 262,427 265,718 269,052 270,311 270,417 270,843 268,807 269,348 271,603 273,255 132,861 135,599 137,803 138,784 138,097 138,483 136,559 136,774 137,978 139,737 129,566 130,119 131,249 131,527 132,320 132,360 132,248 132,574 133,625 133,518 1.46 1.46 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.46 1.47 1.46 1.46 1.45 1.55 1.57 1.61 1.59 1.57 1.57 1.55 1.54 1.55 1.53 32,571 37,873 41,510 45,057 47,989 52,469 54,873 55,919 54,492 58,758 3 4 107,016 108,138 106,667 107,734 107,965 108,069 108,183 108,306 109,208 r 110,081 110,162 Seasonally adjusted, end of period. Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In October, manufacturers' shipments and new orders rose; inventories were virtually unchanged; and unfilled orders fell. In November, according to advance data, durable goods shipments and new orders rose. BllilONS OF DOUARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 480 440 400 360 320 INVENTORIES -. , "I | v 280 240 \ DURABLE G -v->p5 200 160 _ \\ . 80 120 BILLIONS OF DOUARS* (RATIO SCALE) 320 NOI-^DURABLE GC3ODS NEW ORDERS TOTAL 280 80 240 RATIO * 2.20 200 INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO f 2.00 . DURABLE GOODS - 160 1.80 120 1.60 NONDURABLE GOODS 1.40 80 1.20 1990 1989 1993 1991 1993 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturers' shipments 1 Manufacturers' inventories 2 Manufacturers' new orders l Durable goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, non-defense Nondurable goods Manufacturers' unfilled orders 2 Manufacturers' inventory — shipments ratio 3 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1992- Oct Nov Dec 1993- Jan Feb Mar , May July . . Sept Oct ' Nov ' 172,547 190,682 194,538 194,657 206,326 223,541 232,724 239,459 235,518 244,511 245,459 248,525 256,609 252,845 256,800 258,979 255,114 254,007 258,299 251,680 256,556 260,088 260,666 85,481 97,940 101,279 103,238 108,128 117,993 121,703 122,387 119,151 125,553 126,425 128,720 134,228 130,805 134,133 135,537 132,763 132,307 135,042 129,257 134,521 137,521 138,166 141,870 87,066 92,742 93,259 91,419 98,198 105,549 111,022 117,072 116,367 118,958 119,034 119,805 122,381 122,040 122,667 123,442 122,351 121,700 123,257 122,423 122,035 122,567 122,500 312,379 339,516 334,799 322,669 338,075 367,422 386,911 399,068 386,348 379,238 383,095 381,055 379,238 378,624 379,232 379,539 380,307 381,591 381,326 381,561 381,392 380,689 380,350 199,854 221,330 218,212 212,006 220,776 241,402 256,065 259,988 249,117 237,717 240,909 239,407 237,717 236,332 237,034 236,849 237,043 237,734 237,514 237,937 237,688 237,571 237,566 1 Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. Shipments are the same as sales. 2 Seasonally adjusted, end of period. 112,525 118,186 116,587 110,663 117,299 126,020 130,846 139,080 137,231 141,521 142,186 141,648 141,521 142,292 142,198 142,690 143,264 143,857 143,812 143,624 143,704 143,118 142,784 3 175,451 192,879 195,706 195,204 209,389 227,026 235,932 240,646 234,354 241,545 244,882 243,106 256,727 253,626 257,250 253,007 252,369 248,335 255,462 250,566 253,461 255,309 258,447 88,140 100,164 102,356 103,647 110,809 121,445 124,933 123,556 117,878 122,614 125,656 123,096 134,348 131,266 134,533 129,903 129,838 126,783 132,252 128,520 131,752 133,176 136,591 139,356 19,624 23,669 24,545 23,983 26,095 30,729 32,725 32,254 29,468 29,653 30,129 26,804 32,275 28,645 32,748 29,122 30,453 29,931 33,850 30,093 31,992 30,992 32,816 34,550 87,311 92,715 93,351 91,557 98,579 105,581 110,999 117,090 116,476 118,932 119,226 120,010 122,379 122,360 122,717 123,104 122,531 121,552 123,210 122,046 121,709 122,133 121,856 347,273 373,529 387,095 393,412 430,288 471,951 510,459 524,846 511,122 475,304 480,605 475,186 475,304 476,085 476,535 470,563 467,818 462,146 459,309 458,195 455,100 450,321 448,102 1.78 1.73 1.73 1.68 1.59 1.58 1.64 1.65 1.67 1.57 1.56 1.53 1.48 1.50 1.48 1.47 1.49 1.50 1.48 1.52 1.49 1.46 1.46 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In November, the producer price index for all finished goods was unchanged. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 0.8 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods fell 0.4 percent. Capital equipment prices rose 0.2 percent. INDEX, 1982 - 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1982 - 100 (RATIO SCALE) SEASONAUY ADJUSTED FINISHED GOODS PRICES 130 130 CONSUMER FOODS 120 120 CAPITAL EQUIPMENT v 110 110 CONSUMER GOODS EXCLUDING FOODS TOTAL 100 100 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 90 1985 1986 1989 1988 1987 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 11 1991 1990 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LAICtt 90 1992 1993 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1982 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Intermediate materials Finished goods Finished goods excluding consumer foods Period Total finished goods Consumer foods Nondurable Capital equipment Consumer goods Total Total Durable Total finished consumer goods Crude materials Total Foods and feeds ' Other Total Foodstuffs and feedstuffs Other 101.6 103.7 104.7 103.2 105.4 108.0 113.6 119.2 121.7 123.2 101.0 105.4 104.6 107.3 109.5 112.6 118.7 124.4 124.1 123.3 101.8 103.2 104.6 101.9 104.0 106.5 111.8 117.4 120.9 123.1 101.2 102.2 103.3 98.5 100.7 103.1 108.9 115.3 118.7 120.8 102.8 104.5 106.5 108.9 111.5 113.8 117.6 120.4 123.9 125.7 100.5 101.1 101.7 93.3 94.9 97.3 103.8 111.5 115.0 117.3 102.8 105.2 107.5 109.7 111.7 114.3 118.8 122.9 126.7 129.1 101.3 103.3 103.8 101.4 103.6 106.2 112.1 118.2 120.5 121.7 100.6 103.1 102.7 99.1 101.5 107.1 112.0 114.5 114.4 114.7 103.6 105.7 97.3 96.2 99.2 109.5 113.8 113.3 111.1 110.7 100.5 103.0 103.0 99.3 101.7 106.9 111.9 114.5 114.6 114.9 101.3 103.5 95.8 87.7 93.7 96.0 103.1 108.9 101.2 100.4 101.8 104.7 94.8 93.2 96.2 106.1 111.2 113.1 105.5 105.1 100.7 102.2 96.9 81.6 87.9 85.5 93.4 101.5 94.6 93.5 1992: Nov Dec 123.8 123.8 123.5 125.1 123.7 123.3 121.6 120.9 125.9 126.0 118.4 117.4 129.5 129.7 122.3 122.3 114.9 114.9 110.2 111.1 115.2 115.1 102.6 101.5 104.7 105.9 97.4 94.8 1993- Jan Feb Mar 124.2 124.7 125.1 125.8 125.8 125.1 125.1 124.3 124.5 124.2 124.2 124.4 124.4 124.6 126.3 126.3 125.1 124.9 125.5 126.4 125.8 126.8 124.1 124.7 125.1 125.6 125.6 125.1 125.1 123.9 123.9 123.7 123.4 121.6 122.3 122.9 123.4 123.4 122.7 122.6 120.8 120.8 120.7 120.2 126.7 127.2 127.5 128.2 128.0 128.0 128.5 129.3 129.1 127.4 128.4 118.1 118.9 119.5 120.0 120.0 119.1 118.7 115.8 115.8 116.5 115.3 130.4 130.8 131.1 131.3 131.4 131.2 131.7 131.9 131.9 131.4 131.7 122.6 123.1 123.6 124 .4 124.4 123.6 123.5 122.4 122.6 122.4 122.3 115.3 115.9 116.3 116.6 116.3 116.5 116.4 116.4 116.5 116.4 116.2 111.5 111.0 110.3 111.8 111.4 110.4 112.9 113.8 113.2 113.8 115.7 115.5 116.2 116.7 116.8 116.5 116.8 116.6 116.6 116.7 116.6 116.3 101.8 101.6 101.8 103.3 105.4 103.7 101.4 102.0 101.6 103.0 103.4 106.4 106.4 106.4 109.1 109.6 105.9 107.1 109.0 109.1 107.5 111.6 95.0 94.7 94.9 95.6 98.7 98.3 93.9 93.6 92.9 96.1 94.2 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 . . May July r. Sept Oct Nov 1 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 22 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In November, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted (it rose 0.1 percent not seasonally adjusted). The index was 2.7 percent above its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1982-84 = 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1982-84 - 100 (RATIO SCALE) 150 150 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED CONSUMER PRICES—ALL ITEMS I I I I I I I I I II 1 I I I I I I I II M M I I I I I II ! I I i I I I i [I 1989 1988 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1982-84=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] All items * Transportation Housing Shelter Period Rel. imp.^ .... 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1992: Nov Dec 1993: Feb Mar Apr May July Sept Get Nov Not seasonally adjusted (NSA) Seasonally adjusted 100.0 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 118 3 124.0 130 7 136.2 1403 Total Renters' costs (Dec. 1982 = 100) Homeowners' costs CDec. 1982 = 100) Maintenance and repairs (NSA) Food Total ! Fuel and other utilities Apparel and upkeep Total i New cars Motor fuel Medical care Energy 2 All items less food and energy 15.8 99.4 103.2 105.6 109.0 113.5 118.2 125.1 132.4 136.3 137.9 41.4 99.5 103.6 107.7 110.9 114.2 118.5 123.0 128.5 133.6 137.5 27.9 99.1 104.0 109.8 115.8 121.3 127.1 132.8 140.0 146.3 151.2 8.0 103.0 108.6 115.4 121.9 128.1 133.6 138.9 146.7 155.6 160.9 19.7 102.5 107.3 113.1 119.4 124.8 131.1 137.3 144.6 150.2 155.3 0.2 99.9 103.7 106.5 107.9 111.8 114.7 118.0 122.2 126.3 128.6 7.3 100.2 104.8 106.5 104.1 103.0 104.4 107.8 111.6 115.3 117.8 6.0 100.2 102.1 105.0 105.9 110.6 115.4 118.6 124.1 128.7 131.9 17.0 99.3 103.7 106.4 102.3 105.4 108.7 114.1 120.5 123.8 126.5 4.0 99.9 102.8 106.1 110.6 114.6 116.9 119.2 121.0 125.3 128.4 3.3 99.4 97.9 98.7 77.1 80.2 80.9 88.5 101.2 99.4 99.0 6.9 100.6 106.8 113.5 122.0 130.1 138.6 149.3 162.8 177.0 190.1 7.3 99.9 100.9 101.6 88.2 88.6 89.3 94.3 102.1 102.5 103.0 76.9 99.6 104.6 109.1 113.5 118.2 123.4 129.0 135.5 142.1 147.3 142.0 141.9 142.0 142.2 138.8 139.2 138.8 138.9 152.6 152.9 162.1 161.9 156.8 157.4 129.5 129.3 119.2 119.3 132.3 131.9 128.4 128.5 129.4 129.5 100.3 99.8 194.7 195.5 104.1 103.9 149.3 149.6 142.6 143.1 143.6 144.0 144.2 144.4 144.4 144.8 145.1 145.7 145.8 142.9 143.4 143.6 144.2 144.4 144.4 144.5 144.9 144.9 145.5 145.8 139.7 139.9 140.1 140.6 141.2 140.6 140.6 141.0 141.2 142.0 142.5 139.3 139.6 140.0 140.7 140.8 141.2 141.2 141.6 141.9 142.2 142.3 153.5 154.0 154.2 155.0 155.1 155.6 155.5 155.9 156.2 156.5 156.8 161.9 162.5 162.8 163.8 164.3 164.4 164.2 164.3 164.8 165.6 165.9 158.2 158.7 158.9 159.6 159.7 160.3 160.3 160.8 161.0 161.1 161.5 129.7 130.5 131.5 131.8 131.6 131.2 131.3 131.6 131.3 130.8 127.9 119.4 118.8 120.2 120.7 120.9 121.4 121.8 122.4 122.7 122.8 122.2 133.0 135.0 134.3 134.3 133.6 132.9 132.9 134.1 133.3 133.5 134.0 129.3 129.9 130.0 130.2 130.1 129.9 130.2 130.3 130.2 131.5 131.8 129.8 129.8 130.1 130.7 131.0 131.2 131.6 132.1 132.5 133.0 133.0 101.2 101.8 101.4 100.8 98.4 97.3 96.8 95.2 94.0 98.3 96.5 196.7 197.7 198.2 199.3 200.8 201.6 202.4 202.9 203.7 204.8 205.3 104.4 104.0 104.7 104.9 103.9 103.7 103.7 103.2 102.8 104.8 103.4 150.3 151.0 151.2 151.8 152.1 152.3 152.5 152.9 153.0 153.4 153.9 1 Includes items not shown separately. Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc. also included through 1982. 3 Relative importance, December 1992. 2 NOTE.—Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods. Data beginning 1987 and 1988 calculated on a revised basis. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Change from preceding period Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate Consumer goods Consumer goods Consumer goods Period Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Total finished goods Excluding foods Foods Capital equipment Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA 1985 1986 1987 . . . 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 0.6 1.7 1.8 -2.3 2.2 4.0 4.9 5.7 1 1.6 1992- Nov Dec -0.2 0 1983 1984 -0.9 .8 2.1 66 4.1 3.1 5.3 8.7 -.7 1.6 2.3 3.5 .6 2.8 2 5.7 5.2 2.6 -1.5 1.6 1.6 2.1 1.0 -1.4 2.1 2.5 5.2 4.9 2.1 1.2 2.0 1.8 2.7 2.1 1.3 3.6 3.8 3.4 2.5 1.7 Change, month to month 1993: Jan Feb Mar .3 .4 .3 .6 0 -.6 0 -.6 .2 -.2 0 May July Sept Oct Nov 02 -.6 .6 .6 .5 .4 0 -.6 1 -1.5 0 -.1 -.4 -0.6 1.3 -.6 0 .2 1.4 0 -1.0 2 .5 .7 5 .8 0.2 .2 0.6 -.3 -0.3 3.3 1.3 -2.0 0 .6 1.0 .5 .3 .2 .2 .1 2 'A .2 0 4 .2 .6 2.9 4.3 5.3 3.6 0 22 .6 2.9 -1.6 6.3 6.3 1.6 -4.4 25 4.2 2.9 4.2 -.7 2.3 6.8 6.1 3.6 -.6 -2.6 -8.2 -6.1 61 -2.0 3.4 4.1 4.4 2.8 1.8 .3 '1.2 1.5 2.2 r -.9 -.6 1.1 -4.7 19 -2.8 3 .5 1.8 1.9 2.9 3.3 2.1 1.5 -.6 -1.0 -2.5 -2.5 1.6 3.8 1.0 -1.0 0.5 .9 1.4 1.6 2.8 1.3 .8 3.4 4.6 0 .8 1.8 2.9 -.8 .8 0 1.8 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.0 1.7 -2.4 -3.4 -4.3 -5.1 1.9 2.0 2.5 3.1 3.0 2.3 r 2.0 1.7 1.2 .2 .5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.1 1.3 1.3 .6 .5 .2 .3 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Transportation Housing Ap- Shelter Period All items l Food Total ' Total ' Renters' costs Homeowners' costs Fuel and other utilities parel and upkeep Total New cars L Motor fuel Medical care Energy2 All items less food and energy Addendum: All items, percent change (annual rate) From previous quarter 3 From 3 months earlier From 6 months earlier From year earlier NSA Change, December to December, NSA 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 3.8 3.9 3.8 1.1 4.4 4.4 4.6 6.1 3.1 2.9 2.7 3.8 2.6 3.8 3.5 5.2 5.6 5.3 1.9 1.5 3.5 4.3 4.3 1.7 3.7 4.0 3.9 4.5 3.4 2.6 4.7 5.2 6.0 4.6 4.8 4.5 4.9 5.2 3.9 2.9 5.1 5.9 6.3 5.0 3.9 3.9 4.5 6.7 4.2 2.8 4.5 5.1 5.9 4.6 5.3 4.7 5.1 4.7 3.7 2.9 1992: Nov Dec 0.2 .1 0.1 .3 0.2 .1 0.3 .2 0.2 0.3 .4 0.3 .1 -0.1 -.3 0.5 .1 1993: Jan Feb Mar .5 .3 .1 .4 .1 0 .1 .3 0 .4 .2 .4 .1 .1 .4 .4 -.4 0 .3 .1 .6 .4 .3 .2 .3 .5 .1 .3 0 .3 2 .2 .1 .4 .3 .1 .5 .1 .3 -.1 .3 .2 .2 .2 0 .4 .2 .6 .3 .1 — .1 .1 .3 .5 .2 .5 .3 .1 .4 .1 .4 0 .3 .1 .1 .2 .1 -.5 1.2 .4 .2 .4 .3 .5 .2 .1 -.5 .8 1.5 -.5 0 .6 .5 .1 .2 -.1 -.2 .2 .1 — .1 1.0 .2 1983 1984 1.8 4.2 1.8 -5.6 1.6 2.9 3.2 4.0 2.9 2.3 2.9 2.0 2.8 .9 4.8 4.7 1.0 5.1 3.4 1.4 3.9 3.1 2.6 -5.9 6.1 3.0 4.0 10.4 -1.5 3.0 -1.7 -2.4 3.1 -30.7 18.7 -2.1 6.8 36.5 -16.0 1.8 6.4 6.1 6.8 7.7 5.8 6.9 8.5 9.6 7.9 6.6 -0.5 .2 1.8 -19.7 8.2 .5 5.1 18.1 -7.4 2.0 4.8 4.7 4.3 3.8 4.2 4.7 4.4 5.2 4.4 3.3 0.1 -.5 1.4 .2 .6 0 .2 -.4 -.6 .5 .2 24 .2 -1.1 5 .3 .4 -1.7 .3 -1.3 4.6 .4 -1.8 0 0.5 .4 0.2 -.2 0.3 .2 .6 .5 .3 .6 .8 .4 .4 .2 .4 .5 .2 .5 -.4 .7 .2 -1.0 -.2 0 5 4 1.9 -1.3 .5 .5 .1 .4 .2 .1 .1 .3 .1 .3 .3 3.4 2.5 3.4 5.9 1.8 2.1 2.3 1.4 3.3 2.3 3.2 43 3.6 19 3.6 4.1 4.8 5.4 4.2 3.0 Change, month to month May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov 1 -.5 0 .9 -.6 .2 .4 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc., also included through 1982. 24 0.2 .1 3 3.2 3.7 2.8 1.4 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.4 4.0 4.0 3.7 2.8 2.2 .8 1.4 1.4 2.8 2.5 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.9 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.7 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS In November, prices received by farmers were 1.4 percent below their October level. Prices paid by farmers in October were 1.0 percent above their July level. (Data are not seasonally adjusted). INDEX, 1977 = 100 {RATIO SCALE) 200 INDEX, 1977 . 100 (RATIO SCALE) 200 180 180 -V 160 160 PRICES PAID 140 \ . PRICES RECEIVED - 120 120 100 l I I I l l l l i I i i i i i I i i n I Iln nIl I l I I I I I l l l l l l I I l l ll l 80 RATI 3J; 140 80 RA TIOJ/ 140 120 120 RATIO - 100 100 / 80 ii iii1iilil 1985 1 1 I'l 1 1 1986 r I 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1987 i 1 1 1111111 M 1 1 M r—•— 1 11 1 11 1 80 -i| 1 1 111111 1111111 1 11 1 11 11 i i ll11l ll l i 1990 1989 1988 i ^r 1991 | 1992 60 1993 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1977 = 100; not seasonally adjusted] Prices paid by farmers Prices received by farmers Period All farm products Livestock and products Crops All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates 1 Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates Ratio z Production items 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 135 142 128 123 127 138 147 149 145 140 128 138 120 107 106 126 134 127 129 121 141 146 136 138 146 150 160 170 161 157 161 164 162 159 162 170 178 184 189 191 159 161 156 150 152 160 167 172 175 176 152 155 151 144 148 157 165 171 174 174 84 87 79 77 78 81 83 81 77 73 1992- Nov Dec.. 136 137 115 118 156 156 (3) (3) (3) (3) (3) (3) 71 71 1993: Jan Peb Mar 139 140 142 146 144 140 140 142 145 145 143 117 118 116 126 120 112 118 123 128 130 129 159 162 166 167 168 166 161 162 160 159 157 194 (3) (3) 197 (3) (3) 197 (s) (3) 199 (3) 178 (3) (3) 181 (3) (3) 180 (3) (3) 182 (3) 176 (3) (3) 179 (3) (3) 178 (3) (3) 181 (3) 72 72 73 74 73 71 71 72 74 73 72 1983 1984 1985 1986 May July Sept Oct Nov 1 2 Includes items not shown separately. Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and3 wage rates. See also footnote 3. Beginning March 1986, prices paid by farmers are available only for first month in quarter, and for each month the received/paid ratio is based on latest data available. NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1977 = 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES Growth in M2 and M3 accelerated in November. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 4,800 COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISEIS [Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Ml Ma M3 Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCDs) Ml plus overnight RPs and Eurodollars, MMMF balances (general purpose and broker/dealer), MMDAs, and savings and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, term RPs, term Eurodollars, and institution-only MMMF balances 521.2 552.4 620.1 724.5 750.0 787.1 794.6 827.2 899.3 1,026.6 2,186.5 2,376.0 2,572.4 2,816.1 2,917.2 3,078.2 3,233.3 3,345.5 3,445.8 3,494.8 2,693.1 2,988.2 3,203.6 3,491.7 3,674.8 3,915.4 4,056.1 4,116.8 4,168.1 4,162.5 3,529.5 3,830.9 4,131.9 4,333.5 4,669.4 4,886.1 4,966.6 4,982.3 5,039.5 5,257.5 6,006.1 6,901.1 7,778.6 8,543.3 9,306.1 10,030.7 10,670.1 '11, 145.5 '11,721.1 9.9 6.0 12.3 16.8 3.5 4.9 1.0 4.1 8.7 14.2 12.0 8.7 8.3 9.5 3.6 5.5 5.0 3.5 3.0 1.4 10.3 11.0 7.2 9.0 5.2 6.5 3.6 1.5 1.2 .1 12.1 14.2 14.9 12.7 9.8 8.9 7.8 6.4 '4.5 5.2 1992- Oct Nov Dec 1,006.0 1,019.1 1,026.6 3,490.0 3,496.2 3,494.8 4,178.1 4,175.6 4,162.5 5,038.7 5,048.1 5,039.5 * 11,625.7 r \ 1,665.6 '11,721.1 13.8 14.1 15.6 1.5 1.7 1.9 .0 2 — .4 5.1 5.0 5.0 1993: Jan Feb Mar 1,033.2 1,033.0 1,035.2 1,043.0 1,066.7 1,073.1 1,085.0 1,094.1 1,106.5 1,116.1 1,125.8 3,485.6 3,474.0 3,471.5 3,473.2 '3,503.5 '3,510.8 3,516.3 3,521.1 3,533.1 3,535.2 3,547.7 4,137.3 4,131.3 4,126.5 4,136.8 r 4,165.7 r 4,165.0 4,162.4 4,165.6 4,178.9 4,186.3 4,200.9 5,015.0 5,011.3 5,010.4 5,026.2 ' 5,065.4 '5,067.7 '5,064.3 5,077.0 5,066.5 "5,078.7 r ll,757.8 '11,781.6 '11,821.3 '11, 867.4 '11,912.7 '11,976.1 12,033.4 12,088.3 12,141.6 ''12,178.9 14.5 11.8 9.1 7.4 9.3 9.1 10.0 11.8 13.8 14.0 11.1 1.3 .1 -1.5 -2.2 26 -2.0 -.5 .1 1.2 1.7 2.5 2.4 1.7 '4.6 '4.0 3.9 '4.2 4.2 '4.4 4.7 5.2 5.4 5.2 Period 19831984: 1985: 19861987: 1988: 19891990: 19911992: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec . .. ....: May July Sept r Get ' Nov * 1 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfinaneiai sectors; data from flow of funds accounts, 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a simple annual rate. 26 L M3 plus other liquid assets 3,154;4 Debt Debt of domestic nonfinanciaf sectors (monthly average) 1 Percent change from year or 6 months earlier 2 Ml NOTE.—See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. M3 M2 A -1.0 .4 .9 1.8 2.7 3.5 3.6 2.5 Debt COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Overnight repur- Period Other checkable deposits (OCDs) Demand deposits Currency agreements (RPs), net, plus overnight Eurodollars 1 Money market mutua fund balan ^es 2 General purpose and broker/ dealer Institution only deposits, including money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) Small denomination time deposits 3 Large denomination time deposits 3 NSA 1983: 19841985: 1986: 1987: 19881989: 19901991: 19921992: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Oct Nov Dec 1993- Jan Feb Mar May June July Sept Oct ' Nov" 146.2 156 1 167 9 180.8 196 9 212 3 222 7 246 7 267 2 292 3 2880 289 8 292 3 294 8 2969 299 0 301 4 3040 306.8 309 6 312 6 3164 318 2 319 9 238.5 244 0 2669 302.3 287 1 287 1 279 8 278 2 2905 3408 3360 3395 340 8 341 9 341 8 341 9 347 2 359 1 360.5 r 365 6 370 7 3764 3799 385 3 131.9 147 3 179 7 235.3 259 3 280 7 2853 294 5 333 8 385 2 373 7 381 6 385 2 388 6 3864 386 3 386 2 395 5 397.8 401 9 403 1 4060 410 2 412 7 55.6 60 6 73 5 82.3 84 1 83 2 77 6 74 7 763 74 7 75 6 75 8 74 7 73 3 740 74 4 726 700 73.5 75 7 78 3 r 81 5 840 85 3 139.1 168 0 177 2 209.0 222 6 242 9 317 4 350 5 363 9 342 3 346 3 343 7 342 3 340 0 333 2 332 7 331 5 3364 336.2 3359 r 334 2 3324 332 9 3364 41.9 63 2 65 5 86.1 99 7 92 0 108 8 135 9 182 1 202 3 2109 209 2 202 3 197 7 201 9 200 9 2004 202 8 198.1 1950 193 3 194 1 1966 196 7 1 Includes continuing contract RPs. Data prior to 1983 are not seasonally adjusted. Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. 2 3 685.0 704 7 815 1 940.9 937 6 926 6 891 0 920 8 1 042 5 1 1860 1 1705 1 180 4 1 1860 1 184 4 1 182 4 1 1788 1 181 6 1 193 7 1,198.8 1 200 1 1 205 1 1 208 7 1 209 6 1 2145 784.1 888 9 885 5 858.9 922 8 1 038 3 1 152 7 1 179 3 1 064 7 867 3 8944 879 3 867 3 858 3 853 1 848 1 841 1 r 834 2 r 826.6 817 6 ""810 1 r 8034 795 8 7882 327.6 4165 434 1 431.3 4754 5254 5488 4896 424 7 355 7 3666 360 2 355 7 3485 3440 338 1 3432 343 1 339.8 3352 335 4 333 8 3344 332.6 Term repurchase agreements (RPs) Term Eurodollars (net) NSA NSA 49.9 57 6 624 80.6 1060 121 8 990 89 6 72 5 806 79 7 81 4 806 79 8 82 1 85 7 88 8 89 8 92.8 96 4 963 96 2 950 945 91.5 82 9 765 83.8 91 0 105 7 79 5 68 7 57 6 45 6 48 1 47 2 45 6 43 5 46 7 49 8 48 7 48 7 45.5 41 9 r r 44 1 453 460 51 1 Savings bonds Shortterm Treasury securities 71.1 74 2 795 91.8 100 6 109 4 117 6 126 1 1380 156 8 151 9 154 7 156 8 158 9 161 1 162 7 163 9 1648 165.7 166 8 167 8 168 8 P 169 8 211.9 260 9 298 2 280.0 253 1 269 2 3249 331 1 3150 331 4 3202 325 1 331 4 337 5 342 9 341 6 340 7 347 1 r 349.1 r 348 5 r 345 7 r 323 5 "318 9 Bankers' acceptances Commercial paper 45.0 133.2 454 1608 420 207 6 231.4 37.0 443 2607 399 335 5 347 3 40 2 356 357 1 23 4 337 7 204 3684 205 3680 203 372 4 204 3684 206 360 7 202 3559 19 3 360 3 19.3 3655 19 4 3684 18.7 369.1 17 5 369 1 164 381 4 r !59 3795 "15 5 "388 1 NOTE.—Travelers checks of nonbank issuers are a component of money stock but are not shown here. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstem. AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE [Averages of daily figures l; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements Borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal Reserve (NSA) Reserves of depository institutions Period Total 198319841985198619871988: 19891990199119921992- Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Nov Dec 1993- Jan Feb Mar May July Oct Nov" 1 . .. 25,367 26,845 31,448 38,943 38,862 40,398 40,492 41,767 45,533 54,351 53,815 54,351 54,665 54,922 55,166 55,197 56,877 57,119 57,567 58,033 58,837 59,819 60,459 Data are prorated averages of biweekly (maintenance period) averages of daily figures. Nonborrowed 24,593 23,659 30,129 38,116 38,085 38,683 40,227 41,441 45,341 54,228 53,711 54,228 54,500 54,876 55,074 55,124 56,756 56,938 57,323 57,680 58,410 59,534 60,369 Nonborrowed plus extended credit 24,595 26,263 30,628 38,419 38,568 39,927 40,247 41,464 45,342 54,228 53,711 54,228 54,501 54,877 55,074 55,124 56,756 56,938 57,323 57,680 58,410 59,534 60,369 Required 24,806 25,990 30,411 37,573 37,816 39,351 39,570 40,102 44,555 53,196 52,772 53,196 53,405 53,818 53,953 54,101 55,881 56,209 56,478 57,080 57,747 58,730 59,359 Monetarv base Total 175,467 187,237 203,585 223,667 239,872 256,932 267,734 293,185 317,169 350,798 347,832 350,798 353,224 355,734 358,374 360,634 364,769 368,069 370,978 374,532 379,260 381,766 384,566 774 3,186 1,318 827 777 1,716 265 326 192 124 104 124 165 45 91 73 121 181 244 352 428 285 89 Seasonal 96 113 56 38 93 130 84 76 38 18 40 18 11 18 26 41 84 142 210 234 236 192 75 Extended credit 2 2,604 499 303 483 1,244 20 23 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES Total commercial bank loans and leases rose 0.7 percent in November; commercial and industrial loans were unchanged. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 3,200 ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 2,800 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 3,200 2,800 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 1,600 1,600 " LOANS AND LEASES 1,200 1,200 800 800 U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 400 400 OTHER SECURITIES -V 200 200 160 160 120 120 I I I i I I I I MI 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1991 1990 1993 1992 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted * AH commercial banks Loans and leases Period Total loans and securities 2 U.S. Government securities Other securities Total 2 Commercial and industri- Real estate Individual Security 331.0 376.3 425.9 494.1 587.2 212.9 254.2 295.0 315.4 328.2 354.8 375.2 380.3 363.9 355.5 355.4 355.5 358.4 361.9 362.3 364.4 367.5 368.8 372.5 374.7 375.9 380.3 383.2 28.0 35.0 43.3 40.3 34.5 40.9 41.3 44.7 54.3 64.8 64.2 64.8 63.5 62.8 64.2 62.3 68.6 71.4 81.5 79.6 82.5 79.5 86.9 al 1983: 1984: 1985: 1986: 1987: 1988: 1989: 1990: 1991: 1992: 1992: 1993: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June r... July r.... Aug r.... Sept r... Oct r Nov 1,552.2 1,722.9 1,910.4 2,093.7 2,241.2 2,422.9 2,590.8 2,732.4 2,836.9 2,937.6 2,932.4 2,937.6 2,935.3 2,943.9 2,960.2 2,970.9 2,991.2 3,014.3 3,037.7 3,046.2 3,056.9 3,056.3 3,072.3 259.2 259.8 270.8 310.1 335.8 362.7 397.0 452.1 559.3 657.1 651.4 657.1 656.5 666.2 680.2 691.0 693.5 704.4 708.2 714.4 719.8 717.6 719.2 169.1 140.9 179.0 193.9 195.8 193.7 182.4 178.8 179.9 176.0 177.3 176.0 174.5 176.4 179.0 181.0 181.2 179.5 181.3 182.1 182.5 180.5 180.7 1,123.9 1,322.2 1,460.6 1,589.7 1,709.6 1,866.5 2,011.4 2,101.4 2,097.8 2,104.6 2,103.8 2,104.6 2,104.4 2,101.3 2,101.0 2,098.9 2,116.5 2,130.4 2,148.2 2,149.6 2,154.6 2,158.2 2,172.4 414.2 473.2 500.2 536.7 566.4 605.3 638.4 642.6 617.0 597.6 600.5 597.6 598.0 596.7 593.1 587.5 589.9 591.0 590.8 590.1 586.8 586.5 586.3 670.1 760.1 843.4 871.8 892.4 892.5 892.4 890.8 890.1 891.9 892.2 898.0 904.0 907.8 910.8 914.5 917.9 921.5 1 Data are prorated averages of Wednesday figures for domestically chartered banks and averages of month-end data for foreign-related institutions. Data beginning January 1984 are not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods, largely because beginning January 1984 certain obligations of States and political subdivisions are included in loans rather than in other securities. 28 Nonbank financial institutions 30.4 31.6 32.8 35.3 32.1 32.5 34.4 35.9 41.4 43.6 44.7 43.6 45.1 44.6 44.2 45.0 45.9 46.0 46.4 46.7 46.0 45.0 44.1 Agricultural State and political subdivisions 39.2 40.1 36.1 31.6 29.4 29.0 30.1 32.3 34.2 35.0 35.2 35.0 34.5 34.3 34.0 34.1 34.3 34.3 34.7 34.8 34.8 35.0 35.5 0.0 46.1 56.8 58.4 52.5 45.3 40.0 34.0 29.0 24.8 25.1 24.8 24.2 23.8 23.6 23.1 23.0 22.8 22.8 22.7 22.4 22.3 21.8 eign banks Foreign official institutions 13.4 11.4 9.4 8.4 9.7 6.3 6.3 5.1 5.0 3.5 2.9 2.4 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.3 For- 10.1 7.7 7.6 8.2 7.7 7.3 7.7 7.5 7.7 7.7 8.8 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.6 9.1 9.5 8.7 8.9 8.2 2 Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Lease financing receivables 13.7 16.1 19.1 22.5 24.7 29.4 31.9 32.9 31.7 30.9 30.9 30.9 30.4 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.9 31.3 31.6 31.7 31.8 32.2 32.5 Other 31.8 29.9 35.5 39.0 41.7 46.5 48.1 44.9 44.7 49.5 45.0 49.5 48.8 44.5 45.3 48.0 46.8 49.0 47.9 46.0 47.7 47.3 49.0 SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Uses Sources External Period Total Credit market funds Internal : Total Total 1983 1984 1985 .. 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 '. 1991: I. n in IV 1992- I r r n r m. IV '. . 1993- I " r H III" Securities and mortgages Loans and short-term paper Other z Total Capital expenditures 3 Increase in financia! assets Discrepancy (sources less uses) 439.8 501.0 486.3 531.9 540.5 610.9 562.2 522.8 473.2 586.7 292.3 336.3 351.9 336.7 375.9 404.3 399.6 409.4 437.8 462.7 147.5 164.7 134.4 195.2 164.6 206.6 162.6 113.4 35.4 124.0 96.2 108.6 76.1 140.3 65.2 71.8 62.4 37.7 6.9 68.6 56.2 -5.4 13.0 65.6 27.8 -14.6 32 8 -18.8 95.9 68.3 40.0 114.0 63.1 74.7 37.4 86.4 95.2 56.5 89 0 .3 51.4 56.1 58.2 54.9 99.5 134.9 100.2 75.7 28.5 55.3 416.5 515.3 465.9 503.4 489.9 558.2 523.6 502.0 451.2 537.8 300.1 398.5 374.9 351.9 365.0 394.4 403.8 407.3 381.6 397.2 116.4 116.8 91.0 151.5 124.9 163.8 119.8 94.7 69.6 140.6 23.3 -14.3 20.4 28.5 50.7 52.7 38.7 20.8 22.0 48.8 450.9 473.4 480.9 487.4 560.4 600.8 588.2 597.1 468.3 593.6 611.3 433.0 440.9 426.9 450.4 454.6 452.2 468.5 475.4 460.6 471.4 485.8 17.9 32.5 54.0 37.0 105.8 148.6 119.7 121.7 7.7 122.2 125.5 4.0 32.9 9.4 18 5 81.7 69.7 68.9 53.9 9.3 88.5 76.0 92.5 123.7 72.2 95.4 95.6 96.9 37.8 42.8 69.9 76.9 83.5 -88.5 90 8 -62.8 113 9 -13.9 27 2 31.1 11.1 -60.6 11.6 -7.5 13.9 403.4 455.1 461.3 484.8 520.8 567.3 520.0 543.0 456.7 563.6 585.7 377.2 367.4 388.3 393.6 369.9 401.2 402.7 415.2 446.4 449.2 457.7 26.2 87.7 73.0 91.2 150.9 166.1 117.3 127.8 10.3 114.4 128.0 47.4 18.3 19.5 2.6 39.6 33.4 68.2 54.0 11.6 29.9 25.6 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained abroad. " Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, pension fund liabilities, and direct foreign investment in 4 44.6 55.6 24.1 78.9 50.9 67.8 16 33.7 49.6 the U.S. 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Installment credit outstanding (end of period) Period Total 1983: 19841985: 19861987: 19881989: 199019911992- Dec Dec Dec Dec Dee Dec 3 Dec Dec Dec Dec 1992- Oct Nov Dec 1993- Jan Feb Mar July Sept r Oct p r .. .. Automobile Revolving Net change in installment credit outstanding * Total Automobile Revolving Other 2 368,966 442,602 517,659 572,006 608,675 662,553 724,353 738,765 733,510 741,093 143,560 173,564 210,238 247,772 266,295 285,364 292,536 284,739 260,898 259,627 79,088 100,280 121,758 135,825 153,064 174,269 198,544 222,552 243,564 254,299 146,318 168,758 185,664 188,408 189,316 202,921 233,273 231,474 229,048 227,167 43,161 73,636 75,057 54,347 36,669 53,878 (4) 14,412 5 255 7,583 17,615 30,004 36,674 37,534 18,523 19,069 (4) -7,797 23 841 -1,271 12,634 21,192 21,478 14,067 17,239 21,205 (4) 24,008 21,012 10,735 12,912 22,440 16,906 2,744 908 13,605 (4) -1,799 -2,426 1,881 734,195 736,023 741,093 258,208 258,860 259,627 251,806 252,086 254,299 224,181 225,077 227,167 1,171 1,829 5,070 1 225 653 767 1,350 280 2,213 1,046 896 2,090 743,584 747,228 750,131 752,193 750,293 752,428 757,465 762,503 768,599 776,707 258,737 261,434 262,313 262,463 264,007 265,388 267,468 268,784 270,676 274,616 255,984 258,384 259,661 261,450 262,690 263,338 266,938 270,753 273,703 276,854 228,863 227,410 228,157 228,280 223,596 223,701 223,058 222,967 224,220 225,238 2,490 3,645 2,903 2,062 1 900 2,135 5,037 5,039 6,096 8,108 890 2,697 879 150 1,544 1,381 2,080 1,316 1,892 3,940 1,685 2,400 1,277 1,789 1,240 648 3,600 3,815 2,950 3,151 1,695 1,452 747 123 4684 105 -643 92 1,254 1,017 1 For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding month. 2 Outstanding loans for mobile homes, education, boats, trailers, vacations, etc. 3 Data newlv available in January 1989 result in breaks in many series between December 1988 Other 2 r and subsequent months. 4 Because of breaks in series, net change not available. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Svstem. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Short-term interest rates fell a little in December, and longer-term rates rose slightly. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM 14 14 12 .A\ \\ 12 I v \ \ CORPORATE A era BONDS (MC>OD Y'S) \A \ \ / \ 10 /- \ ~-"v \--,._./ \. / /. •' .• \ \| \ TREASURY BIllS .•"«•••"••.. x. i v^ / /\ __ ,.-...v..-/ ':... ^x_ X '"r— ^ "'-",....,. '""""""-\ /' Ny ..." \] *-x /\ —' DISCOUNT RATE \J ^ 1 ^U, •1 FEDERAL •••-./ N t BANK OF K NEW YORK 4 1.. 2 •ll 1 1 1 i l i 1 1 1 1 1 1 ij 1 1 1 1 ! M i l l 1985 Mill 1988 1987 1986 M i l l 111 1111 1111 1989 1990 1 11 111 11 1 11 ! l l l | f. 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1^ 1992 1991 2 1993 COUNOL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW [Percent per annum] U.S. Treasury security yields Period 3-month bills (new issues) l 1983. 1984 1985. 1986 1987. 1988 1989. 1990 1991 1992 1992: Dec 1993: Jan Feb Mar May July Sept Oct Nov Dec p Week ended: 1993: Dee 4 11 18 25 31 1 Constant maturities 2 3-year 10-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor's) 3 30 Prime commercial paper, 6 months l Discount rate (N.Y. F.K. Bank) 4 Prime rate charged by banks 4 New-home mortgage yields (FHFB) 5 8.63 9.58 7.48 5.98 5.82 6.69 8.12 7.51 5.42 3.45 10.45 11.89 9.64 7.06 7.68 8.26 8.55 8.26 6.82 5.30 11.10 12.44 10.62 7.68 8.39 8.85 8.49 8.55 7.86 7.01 9.47 10.15 9.18 7.38 7.73 7.76 7.24 7.25 6.89 6.41 12.04 12.71 11.37 9.02 9.38 9.71 9.26 9.32 8.77 8.14 8.89 10.16 8.01 6.39 6.85 7.68 8.80 7.95 5.85 3.80 8.50 8.80 7.69 6.33 5.66 6.20 6.93 6.98 5.45 3.25 10.79 12.04 9.93 8.33 8.21 9.32 10.87 10.01 8.46 6.25 12.57 12.38 11.55 10.17 9.31 9.19 10.13 10.05 9.32 8.24 3.25 3.06 2.95 2.97 2.89 2.96 3.10 3.05 3.05 2.96 3.04 3.12 3.08 5.21 4.93 4.58 4.40 4.30 4.40 4.53 4.43 4.36 4.17 4.18 4.50 4.54 6.77 6.60 6.26 5.98 5.97 6.04 5.96 5.81 5.68 5.36 5.33 5.72 5.77 6.24 6.18 5.87 5.65 5.78 5.81 5.73 5.60 5.50 5.31 5.29 5.47 5.36 7.98 7.91 7.71 7.58 7.46 7.43 7.33 7.17 6.85 6.66 6.67 6.93 6.93 3.70 3.35 3.27 3.24 3.19 3.20 3.38 3.35 3.33 3.25 3.27 3.43 3.40 3.00-3.00 3.00-3.00 3.00-3.00 3.00-3.00 3.00-3.00 3.00-3.00 3.00-3.00 3.00-3.00 3.00-3.00 3.00-3.00 3.00-3.00 3.00-3.00 3.00- 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00- 7.88 7.82 7.77 7.46 7.46 7.37 7.23 7.20 7.05 6.95 6.80 6.80 3.12 3.11 3.06 3.06 3.06 4.54 4.51 4.57 4.54 5.80 5.71 5.82 5.79 5.44 5.33 5.36 5.30 6.95 6.86 6.97 6.97 3.46 3.42 3.38 3.36 3.00-3.00 3.00-3.00 3.00-3.00 3.00-3.00 3.00- 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00-6.00 6.00- r Bank-discount basis. Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 2 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) 5 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Housing Finance Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices rose in December. INDE X, DEC. 31,1 965=50 (RATIO SCALE) 260 240 ALE) INDEX, DEC. 3 1 , 1 965=50 (RATIO SC 260 ~^"~ 200 y—»-*|\^^\ ^/\ 160 ( 140 200 f 180 \s ,-A I VI \v. /-<r*^'OSITE STOCK "RICE INDEX ' / 120 100 ' S—* 180 240 220 r-~-^*~-*/ 220 160 140 1_UM (NYSE) 120 r^ 100 80 60 80 1 1111 11111 1 1 11 1 11111 11111 11 111 1 1 11 1 11 1 11 1985 1986 1987 1988 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M i l l 1 1 II 1 11111 1989 1991 1990 1992 PERCENT 20 PERC ENT 20 EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) 15 15 \ 10 r ^ 5 0 1 1 1985 ^ 1 1 1 1986 1 "H i i i 1987 10 ^ _- 1 1 1 1 1988 1 1 1 ~~1f* "* 1 1 1 5 1 1990 1989 1 1 1 1991 1 1 1992 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION Period Industrial Transportation Utility 3 196.87 3,303.15 435.64 2.90 4.38 211.04 218.89 225.06 227.56 222.41 226.53 232.55 237.44 244.21 240.97 230.12 229.50 203.38 209.93 217.01 216.02 209.40 209.75 218.94 224.96 229.35 228.18 214.08 215.72 3,277.72 3,367.26 3,440.74 3,423.63 3,478.17 3,513.81 . 3,529.43 3,597.01 3,592.29 3,625.81 3,674.70 3,736.23 435.23 441.70 450.16 443.08 445.25 448.06 447.29 454.13 459.24 463.90 462.89 465.23 2.88 2.81 2.76 2.82 2.80 2.81 2.81 2.76 2.73 2.72 2.72 2.73 228.52 229.29 228.70 230.92 213.93 216.90 214.44 216.17 3,693.00 3,726.81 3,740.34 3,755.07 462.72 465.52 464.06 466.46 273 2.71 2.74 2.72 239.47 294.86 212.35 1993- Jan Feb Mar 239.67 243.41 248.12 244.72 246.02 247.16 247.85 251.93 254.86 257.53 255.93 257.22 292.11 294.40 298.75 292.19 297.83 298.78 295.34 298.83 300.92 306.61 310.84 312.56 221.00 226.96 229.42 237.97 237.80 234.30 238.30 250.82 248.15 254.04 262.96 267.49 255.54 257.51 256.63 257.84 310.48 312.77 312.12 313.12 266.63 266.50 268.17 267.82 Average of daily closing prices. Includes all the stocks (more than 2,000 in 1992) listed on the NYSE. Dec. 31, 1965=100. Effective April 27, 1993 the NYSE doubled the value of the utility index to facilitate trading of options and futures on the index. All indexes shown here reflect the doubting. 4 Includes SO stocks. 5 Includes 500 stocks. Earningsprice ratio 207.70 1992: Dec 1 Dividendprice ratio 8.03 10.02 8.12 6.09 5.48 8.01 7.41 6.47 4.81 4.22 94.00 92.88 113.50 142.72 148.60 143.54 174.86 181.20 185.32 198.92 3 Finance Dow-Jones industrial average 4 4.40 4.64 4.25 3.49 3.08 3.64 3.45 3.61 3.24 2.99 89.36 85.63 104.11 119.87 140.39 134.12 175.28 158.62 173.99 201.09 2 Common stock yields (percent) e Standard & Poor's composite index (194143=10) 5 160.41 160.46 186.84 236.34 286.83 265.79 322.84 334.59 376.18 415.74 107.45 108.01 123.79 155.85 195.31 180.95 216.23 225.78 258.14 284.62 Week ended: 1993- Dec 4 11 18 25 0 1,190.34 1,178.48 1,328.23 1,792.76 2,275.99 2,060.82 2,508.91 2,678.94 2,929.33 3,284.29 92.63 92.46 108.09 136.00 161.70 149.91 180.02 183.46 206.33 229.01 Sent Oct Nov Dec ' 1 95.34 89.28 114.21 147.20 146.48 127.26 151.88 133.26 150.82 179.26 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 May 1 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS New York Stock Exchange indexes (Dec 31, 1965 = 50 , except as noted) 2 Composite 1 1993 Common stock prices l July 60 1993 4.39 4.29 4.46 6 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earningsprice ratios based on prices at end of quarter. NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first 2 months of fiscal 1994, there was a deficit of $83.8 billion, compared with a deficit of $81.5 billion a year earlier. BIWONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 700 700 400 600 5URPLU5 OR DEFICIT (-) -^ -100 -100 -^•**^ -200 ^""~""~^ -200 ^~"-~--- _ -300 -300 -400 A Vl985 i i 1984 i 1987 i 1988 i 1989 i 1990 i 1991 /s i 1992 1993 -400 1994 V FISCAl YEARS IONOUDCS GN-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Total Fiscal year or period Receipts 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 . .. 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 * 1994 (estimates) Cumulative total, first 2 months: * Fiscal year 1993 .... Fiscal year 1994 Outlays On-budget Surplus or deficit (-) Outlays Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) Total Held by the public 298.1 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 371.8 409.2 458.7 503.5 590.9 678.2 745.8 808.4 851.8 -73.7 -53.7 -59.2 -40.2 -73.8 -79.0 -128.0 -207.8 1854 231.7 278.7 314.2 365.3 403.9 469.1 474.3 453.2 500.4 302.2 328.5 369.1 403.5 476.6 543.1 594.4 661.3 686.0 -70.5 -49.8 -54.9 -38.2 72.7 -74.0 — 120 1 -208.0 1857 66.4 76.8 85.4 98.0 113.2 130.2 143.5 147.3 166.1 69.6 80.7 89.7 100.0 114.3 135.2 151.4 147.1 165.8 3.2 -3.9 4.3 -2.0 1.1 -5.0 -7.9 .2 .3 629.0 706.4 776.6 828.9 908.5 994.3 1,136.8 1,371.2 1,564.1 477.4 549.1 607.1 639.8 709.3 784.8 919.2 1,131.0 1,300.0 734.1 769.1 854.1 909.0 990.7 1,031.3 1,054.3 1,090.5 1,153.2 1,241.3 946.4 990.3 1,003.9 1,064.1 1,143.2 1,252.7 1,323.8 1,380.9 1,408.1 1,500.1 -212.3 -221.2 - 149.8 -155.2 152.5 -221.4 -269.5 -290.4 -254.9 -258.7 547.9 568.9 640.7 667.5 727.0 749.7 760.4 788.0 841.2 903.4 769.6 806.8 810.1 861.4 932.3 1,027.6 1,082.1 1,128.6 1,142.1 1,219.4 -221.7 -238.0 -169.3 - 194.0 -205.2 -278.0 -321.7 340.5 -300.9 -316.0 186.2 200.2 213.4 241.5 263.7 281.7 293.9 302.4 311.9 337.9 176.8 183.5 193.8 202.7 210.9 225.1 241.7 252.3 266.0 280.7 9.4 16.7 19.6 38.8 52.8 56.6 52.2 50.1 45.9 57.2 1,817.0 2,120.1 2,345.6 2,600.8 2,867.5 3,206.3 3,599.0 4,002.7 4,351.1 4,734.7 1,499.4 1,736.2 1,888.1 2,050.3 2,189.3 2,410.4 2,687.9 2,998.6 3,247.2 3,528.2 233.0 245.6 -81.5 -83.8 106.3 114.6 187.2 197.3 -80.9 -82.7 45.2 47.2 45.8 48.3 -.6 -1.1 4,071.5 4,436.4 3,059.2 3,322.4 151.4 161.8 1 Data from Monthly Treasury Statement. NOTE.—Data for fiscal 1992 and 1994 are from Mid-Session Review of the 1994 32 Receipts Gross Federal debt (end of period) Off-budget Surplus or deficit (-) September 1, 1993. Other data (except as noted) are from Budget Baselines, Historical Data, and Alternatives for the Future, January 1993. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget, FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 2 months of fiscal 1994, receipts were $10.4 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $12.6 billion higher. BILUC>NS OF DOLLARS 600 RECEIPTS1' BILLIONS Of DCULARS 600 _ INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES 500 \ 500 400 400 " \ 300 300 200 CORPORATION INfOMF TAXFS \ OTHER RECEIPTS SOCIAL INSURANCE TAXFS AMn TOMTBIRI IT1ONS 200 100 100 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1,300 1,300 OUTLAYS -^ 1,200 1,200 •'"" 1,100 1,100 ^ ^^ 1,000 NONDEFENSE \ 900 1,000 ** •* --- 900 -.-^-"" 800 800 _---•"" 700 700 600 600 500 500 NATIONAL DEFENSE 400 400 \ 300 200 /] 1 l/ 1985 1 1 1986 1987 1 1988 1 300 ! 1989 1990 1 1991 1 1992 1 [\ 200 1994XI 1993 FISCAL YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] On-budget and off-budget outlays On-budget and off-budget receipts Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes 298.1 355.6 399.6 463 3 517.1 5993 617.8 600.6 666.5 131.6 157.6 181.0 217.8 244.1 285.9 297.7 288.9 298.4 41.4 54.9 60.0 65.7 64.6 61.1 49.2 37.0 56.9 90.8 106.5 121.0 138.9 157.8 182.7 201.5 209.0 239.4 34.3 36.6 37.7 40.8 50.6 69.5 69.3 65.6 71.8 371.8 409.2 458.7 503.5 590.9 678.2 745.8 808.4 851.8 89.6 97.2 104.5 116.3 134.0 157.5 185.3 209.9 227.4 734.1 769.1 854.1 909.0 990.7 1,031.3 1,054.3 1,090.5 1,153.2 1,241.3 334.5 349.0 392.6 401.2 445.7 466.9 467.8 476.0 509.7 548.2 61.3 63.1 83.9 94.5 103.3 93.5 98.1 100.3 117.5 120.8 265.2 283.9 303.3 334.3 359.4 380.0 396.0 413.7 428.3 464.6 73.0 73.1 74.3 78.9 82.3 90.9 92.3 100.5 97.7 107.7 946.4 990.3 1,003.9 1,064.1 1,143.2 1,252.7 1,323.8 1,380.9 1,408.1 1,500.1 151.4 161.8 70.4 75.3 3.6 4.4 62.5 65.5 15.0 16.6 233.0 245.6 Fiscal year Total 1976 1977 1978 . 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 ... . 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 ' 1994 (estimates) Cumulative total, first 2 months: 1 Fiscal year 1993 Fiscal year 1994 1 National defense Social insurance taxes and contributions Other Data from Monthly Treasury Statement. Social security Net interest Other 15.8 19.3 22.8 26.5 32.1 39.1 46.6 52.6 57.5 60.8 61.0 61.5 66.4 86.5 99.7 107.7 122.6 112.7 73.9 85.1 93.9 104.1 118.5 139.6 156.0 170.7 178.2 26.7 29.9 35.5 42.6 52.5 68.8 85.0 89.8 111.1 82.8 93.0 114.7 119.6 131.4 133.5 125.4 122.3 118.6 33.5 35.9 40.0 44.5 48.4 57.7 71.2 89.5 99.2 113.5 65.8 70.2 75.1 78.9 85.0 98.1 104.5 119.0 130.6 146.5 128.2 119.8 123.3 129.3 136.0 147.0 170.3 197.0 207.9 213.1 188.6 198.8 207.4 219.3 232.5 248.6 269.0 287.6 304.6 321.5 129.5 136.0 138.7 151.8 169.3 184.2 194.5 199.4 198.9 206.4 131.8 142.1 125.9 139.4 158.8 203.9 225.1 173.9 159.2 203.1 15.4 18.0 20.2 22.2 32.4 34.1 48.4 51.1 32.6 33.3 29.7 32.9 Health 87.9 95.1 102.3 113.6 130.9 153.9 180.7 204.4 220.9 6.4 6.4 7.5 7.5 12.7 13.1 12.3 11.8 15.9 15.7 17.3 18.5 20.5 23.2 26.9 27.4 28.6 30.4 252.7 273.4 282.0 290.4 303.6 299.3 273.3 298.4 290.6 276.7 245.2 265.5 274.0 281.9 294.9 289.8 262.4 286.9 278.6 264.1 16.2 14.2 11.6 10.5 9.6 13.8 15.9 16.1 17.2 19.3 48.0 47.3 45.9 44.9 6.2 6.7 Total NOTE.—Data for fiscal 1992 and 1994 are from Mid-Session Review of the 1994 Budget issued September 1, 1993. Other data (except as noted) are from Budget Baselines, Historical Data, and Income security Internationa) affairs Total Department of Defense, military Medicare Alternatives for the Future, January 1993. Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the third quarter of 1993, according to revised estimates, Federal receipts rose $7.9 billion (annual rate) and Federal expenditures fell $2.1 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,600 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 1,600 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUM RATES 1,400 1,400 . EXPENDITURES - 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 RECEIPTS 600 600 400 200 200 SURPLUS OR DEFICrr(-) -200 -200 -400 1982 1983 1987 1984 1988 1993 1992 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE COUNCIl Of ECONOMY ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Government expenditures Federal Government receipts Period Fiscal year: 1990 1991 1992 Calendar year: 1990 1991 1992 1982- IV 1983: IV 1984- IV 1985- IV 1986- IV 1987: IV 1988- IV 1989- IV 1990- IV 1991- TTT IV 1992- I n m rv 1993- I n r m Total Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Contributions for social insurance Total Purchases Transfer payments Grantsin-aid to State and local governments Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Surplus or deficit (-), national income and product accounts 1,091.9 1,121.3 1,165.4 475.2 475.7 484.1 115.4 108.4 116.1 63.1 76.7 80.8 438.4 460.6 484.6 1,250.0 1,309.2 1,436.0 418.2 446.0 444.9 505.6 509.8 607.2 128.3 147.0 167.3 175.1 183.2 189.8 22.7 23.3 26.8 0.0 -.1 .0 -158.0 -187.9 -270.4 1,111.4 1,127.8 1,183.0 632.3 671.1 739.8 803.6 856.8 943.5 1,000.6 1,068.3 1,115.8 1,132.6 1,142.5 1,165.9 1,176.1 1,169.1 1,221.1 1,218.4 1,268.0 1,275.9 484.3 474.9 490.8 301.6 290.5 323.5 351.8 371.7 414.8 420.0 470.1 483.9 474.5 478.5 479.7 482.0 489.5 511.8 502.1 520.7 527.1 116.4 107.1 120.2 45.5 65.4 67.0 77.0 91.4 109.7 118.5 111.3 115.1 109.2 109.8 121.1 125.8 107.0 127.1 132.4 142.4 139.3 65.8 79.1 81.3 49.2 55.4 58.2 56.8 54.8 59.5 61.4 62.2 67.1 79.5 81.3 80.4" 80.2 81.1 83.5 81.5 86.2 86.7 444.8 1,274.9 466.7 1,331.2 490.7 1,459.3 815.7 235.9 855.7 259.8 926.6 291.1 990.8 318.0 338.8 1,034.3 359.4 1,096.3 400.7 1,135.5 424.7 1,209.8 449.7 1,306.9 469.4 1,350.2 472.8 1,387.2 484.7 1,436.1 488.1 1,456.0 491.4 1,459.8 498.7 1,485.3 502.3 1,481.9 518.7 1,490.6 522.8 1,488.5 426.5 445.9 448.8 281.4 289.7 324.7 356.9 373.1 392.5 392.0 405.1 436.5 446.8 437.4 445.5 444.6 452.8 452.4 442.7 447.5 443.6 514.1 522.0 624.5 346.0 351.1 360.1 383.8 404.2 419.7 444.5 488.8 526.6 546.2 567.7 611.0 620.8 624.4 641.7 642.0 645.6 652.8 132.3 153.0 171.4 84.3 86.9 97.7 104.5 103.8 102.9 113.0 121.9 137.6 154.6 162.3 163.4 171.8 173.7 176.7 176.1 182.8 188.6 176.5 187.6 187.1 86.8 99.2 122.3 129.2 131.1 143.1 151.2 168.9 174.4 187.6 191.9 189.3 190.4 187.4 181.3 178.3 182.5 182.2 25.6 22.6 27.5 17.3 28.8 22.2 16.4 22.1 37.8 34.9 25.0 32.0 15.1 27.9 27.0 28.5 21.4 33.2 42.9 32.3 21.4 .1 -.1 -163.5 -203.4 -276.3 -183.4 -184.6 -186.8 -187.2 -177.5 -152.7 -134.9 -141.5 -191.0 -217.7 -244.7 -270.2 -279.9 -290.7 -264.2 -263.5 -222.6 -212.7 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 34 .0 .0 .0 .6 .0 .0 -.2 .0 .0 .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Consumer prices (1982-84=100; NSA1 Industrial production (1987=100; seasonally adjusted) Period United States 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 * 1992: July Sept Oct Nov Dec 1993: Jan Feb.. . Mar Canada July United States ' Canada Japan France Germany 100.4 Italy United Kingdom 90.9 93.5 97.7 99.6 100.0 103.9 108.8 114.1 117.4 116.0 88.9 91.8 92.9 96.2 100.0 105.9 109.2 109.4 107.1 106.5 88.9 89.0 93.9 96.2 100.0 104.8 107.0 106.7 102.5 102.0 99.6 103.9 107.6 109.6 113.6 118.3 124.0 130.7 136.2 140.3 104.8 108.9 113.4 118.4 123.2 129.3 135.5 143.1 146.4 99.8 102.1 104.1 104.8 104.9 105.7 108.0 111.4 115.0 116.9 100.5 107.9 114.2 117.2 120.9 124.2 128.6 133.0 137.2 140.6 100.3 102.7 104.8 104.7 104.9 106.3 109.2 112.1 116.0 120.6 100.8 111.5 121.1 128.5 134.4 141.1 150.4 159.6 169.8 178.9 99.8 104.8 111.1 114.9 119.7 125.6 135.4 148.2 156.9 162.7 106.8 106.6 106.2 107.5 108.4 108.9 97.4 99.0 99.2 99.4 100.0 100.5 117.3 113.9 118.2 114.6 113.1 112.7 ' 110.0 ' 110.0 115.9 115.5 115.6 112.8 110.5 107.5 108.0 102.8 103.4 105.6 106.4 99.9 101.7 102.6 103.1 104.2 102.9 102.2 140.5 140.9 141.3 141.8 142.0 141.9 145.6 145.6 145.5 145.7 146.4 146.4 116.6 116.9 117.5 117.6 117.4 117.4 140.6 140.4 140.8 141.2 141.4 141.4 120.7 120.9 121.2 121.7 122.3 122.4 179.1 179.2 179.8 180.9 182.0 182.3 163.1 163.2 163.8 164.4 164.1 163.6 107.2 105.9 107.8 106.4 107.3 107.0 106.2 108.5 ' 108.5 108.2 105.3 105.9 104.4 99.9 104.3 101.9 103.4 102.7 103.9 ' 103.1 103.4 105.1 ' 104.2 r 105.4 r 105.3 105.3 106.1 142.6 143.1 143.6 144.0 144.2 144.4 144.4 144.8 145.1 145.7 145.8 147.0 147.4 147.3 147.3 147.6 147.6 148.0 148.1 148.2 148.4 149.1 117.3 117.4 117.7 118.5 118.6 118.5 118.8 119.2 119.3 119.2 141.9 142.4 143.1 143.2 143.5 143.4 143.5 143.5 144.0 144.3 123.8 124.3 124.7 125.1 125.5 125.7 126.0 126.0 126.1 126.4 126.8 182.9 183.6 184.0 184.7 185.4 186.4 187.1 187.2 187.5 188.6 189.5 162.0 163.1 163.7 165.2 165.8 165.7 165.3 166.0 166.7 166.6 166.4 100.7 112.3 113.5 ' 103.0 116.5 ' 102.2 113.4 ' 102.0 110.7 ' 103.8 112.5 r 102.8 111.9 r 103.7 111.0 104.2 rl!3.3 107.8 r !01.7 111.4 112.2 113.2 Nov".. 1 Italy United Kingdom 85.5 96.5 93.4 97.1 96.8 97.2 96.6 98.0 100.0 100.0 109.3 104.6 115.9 ' 108.9 r 121.4 l!1.0 123.7 ' 110.9 116.5 ' 109.8 l!1.0 Oct Germany 91.0 96.1 95.4 100.0 105.3 105.2 101.8 98.1 98.5 81.2 r Sept France 84.9 92.8 94.4 95.3 100.0 104.4 106.0 106.0 104.1 106.5 109.3 109.9 110.1 110.4 110.2 110.5 110.8 May Japan r l!0.1 ' 110.9 r 107.0 * 105.8 r 105.4 ' 107.5 ' 106.7 ' 105.8 r 106.1 105.9 ' 106.5 ' 106.5 106.2 Data relate to all urban cons Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Trade Administration, Office of Trade and Economic Analysis). U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] General merchandise imports (customs value) 3 Merchandise exports (f.a.s. value) * Principal end-use commodity category Foods, feeds, and beverages Industrial supplies and materials Capital goods except automotive Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines Consumer goods (nonfood) except automotive Other " 448.2 30.9 31.5 24.0 22.3 24.3 32.3 37.2 35.1 35.7 40.2 56.7 61.7 58.5 57.3 66.7 85.1 99.3 104.4 109.7 109.3 67.2 72.0 73.9 75.8 86.2 109.2 138.8 152.7 166.7 176.7 16.8 20.6 22.9 21.7 24.6 29.3 34.8 37.4 40.0 47.1 13.4 13.3 12.6 14.2 17.7 23.1 36.4 43.3 45.9 50.4 20.5 24.0 27.3 35.9 34.6 43.4 17.2 20.7 23.7 24.5 1992- Oct Nov Dec 38.9 37.8 39.2 3.6 3.4 3.4 9.6 9.0 9.2 15.3 14.5 15.8 3.8 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.3 1993: Jan Feb Mar Apr May 37.5 36.9 38.9 38.5 38.9 37.6 37.1 38.1 38.9 40.1 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.4 3.5 9.4 8.7 9.2 9.1 9.7 8.8 9.3 9.0 9.6 9.9 14.5 14.3 15.6 15.2 15.3 15.3 14.3 15.3 15.0 15.6 4.1 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.1 3.8 4.2 4.1 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.2 4.5 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 . Period Total 1983 1984 5 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 5 2 205.6 224.0 218.8 227.2 254.1 322.4 363.8 393.6 421.7 July Sept r. Oct 1 3 4 General merchandise imports (c.i.f. value) Foods feeds, and beverages Industrial supplies and materials Capital goods except automotive Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines sumer goods (nonfood) except automotive 473.2 495.3 488.5 532.7 18.2 21.0 21.9 24.4 24.8 24.8 25.1 26.6 26.5 27.9 107.0 123.7 113.9 101.3 111.0 118.3 132.3 143.2 131.6 138.3 40.9 59.8 65.1 71.8 84.5 101.4 113.3 116.4 120.7 134.2 40.8 53.5 66.8 78.2 85.2 87.7 86.1 87.3 85.7 91.8 44.9 60.0 68.3 79.4 88.7 95.9 102.9 105.7 108.0 123.0 6.3 7.8 9.4 10.4 12.1 12.8 13.6 16.1 15.9 17.6 269.9 346.4 352.5 382.3 424.4 459.5 493.2 508.4 554.0 -66.7 -84.5 -86.6 - 105.9 2.1 2.0 1.9 46.1 45.6 46.1 2.3 2.2 2.3 12.5 11.8 11.5 11.8 11.6 11.9 7.5 8.0 8.2 10.5 10.3 10.7 1.5 1.7 1.5 47.9 47.4 47.9 -7.2 -7.8 -7.0 -9.1 -9.6 -8.8 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.1 45.2 44.8 49.3 48.7 47.3 49.7 47.5 48.1 49.5 50.6 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.6 11.6 11.1 12.6 12.6 12.3 12.8 12.1 11.7 12.2 12.5 11.7 11.7 12.4 12.4 12.3 13.1 12.8 12.5 13.0 13.2 7.9 8.3 8.8 8.8 8.2 8.6 7.8 8.5 8.7 9.0 10.3 10.3 11.5 11.1 10.7 11.3 11.0 11.7 11.6 11.7 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 47.0 46.6 51.3 50.6 49.1 51.6 49.4 50.0 51.5 52.6 — 7.7 -7.9 — 10.5 -10.2 -8.4 -12.1 -10.4 — 10.0 -10.6 -10.5 -9.5 -9.6 -12.4 -12.1 -10.2 — 14.0 -12.3 -11.9 -12.6 -12.5 Total Includes Department of Defense Military Assistance Program grant-aid shipments. Includes undocumented exports to Canada through 1988. Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. Total includes revisions not reflected in detail. 5 Total exports are on a revised statistical month basis; end-use categories are on a statistical 2 Trade balance Principal end-use commodity category 4 4 258.0 330.7 336.5 365.4 406.2 441.0 Other 517.0 Exports (f.a.s) less imports (customs value) Exports (f.a.s) less imports (c.i.f.) -52.4 — 64.2 -106.7 -122.4 -117.7 -133.6 -138.3 ^-155.1 -152.-T' -170.3 -118.5 — 137.1 - 109.4 -129.4 -101.7 — 123.4 month basis. NOTE.—Data shown include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the third quarter of 1993, the current account deficit rose to $28.0 billion, from $27.2 billion in the second quarter (revised). The merchandise trade deficit rose to $36.3 billion, from $34.4 billion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 15 15 BALANCE ON GOODS, SERVICES, AND INCOME ' \ 1993 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted. Credits (+), debits (—)] Merchandise l 2 Period 1981 1982.. 1983 1984 1985 1986.. 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991.. 1992 1991- I . . ri in rv 1992: I n m IV 1993: I r n p. m .... 1 2 3 Exports Imports 237,044 211,157 201,799 219,926 215,915 223,344 250,208 320,230 362,116 389,303 416,937 440,138 101,333 104,206 103,764 107,634 108,347 108,306 109,493 113,992 111,530 113,118 111,912 -265,067 -247,642 -268,901 -332,418 -338,088 -368,425 -409,765 -447,189 477 365 -498,336 -490,739 -536,276 -120,123 -120,525 - 123,404 -126,687 -126,110 -133,107 -137,105 - 139,954 -140,839 - 147,502 -148,191 Services Net balance — 28,023 -36,485 -67,102 -112,492 122 173 -145,081 159 557 — 126,959 115 249 - 109,033 — 73,802 -96,138 18 790 -16,319 -19,640 - 19,053 -17,763 -24,801 -27,612 -25,962 -29,309 -34,384 -36,279 Excludes military. Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. 36 Net military transactions 3 * 844 112 -563 -2,547 -4,390 -5,181 -3,844 6315 -6,726 7 833 -5,851 2 751 -2,532 -1,402 -1,164 -755 -571 -727 -617 -836 -145 -226 -341 Net travel and transportation receipts 144 992 -4,227 8 438 -9,798 7 382 -6,481 -1,511 5,071 8,979 17,933 19,718 2,926 4,299 5,228 5,481 5,011 5,201 4,882 4,624 5,014 5,372 5,279 Investment income Other services, net Receipts on U.S. assets abroad Payments on foreign assets in U.S. 12,552 13,209 14,095 14,277 14,266 18,855 17,900 19,961 26,558 29,505 33,799 39,444 7,935 8,397 8,660 8,809 9,608 9,177 11,016 9,641 9,755 9,313 9,169 86,529 86,200 84,778 99,056 89,489 87,497 95,129 122,275 144,904 151,201 127,292 110,612 36,018 32,057 30,074 29,144 29,028 28,641 27,195 25,749 26,078 27,876 28,695 -53,626 -56,412 -53,700 -69,572 -68,314 -74,736 87 403 - 109,653 -130,091 - 130,853 -114,272 - 104,391 -30,247 -29,147 -28,447 -26,431 -24,609 -27,734 -25,492 -26,555 -26,115 -27,829 -26,947 4 Net Balance on goods, services, and income Unilateral transfers, net 4 Balance on current account 32,903 29,788 31,078 29,483 21,175 12,761 7,726 12,621 14,813 20,348 13,021 6,222 5,771 2,910 1,627 2,713 4,419 907 1,703 -806 -37 47 1,748 16,732 5,632 -26,719 -79,716 -100,920 - 126,028 - 144,256 - 102,203 -75,532 -58,034 - 14,899 -33,505 -4,690 -2,115 -5,289 -2,805 704 - 10,243 - 10,628 -13,339 -14,722 -19,878 -20,424 -11,702 -17,075 -17,741 -20,612 -22,950 -24,176 -23,052 -24,965 -26,092 -33,827 6,575 -32,895 14,096 3,884 -6,564 -4,839 -7,389 -8,010 -7,147 -10,348 -7,586 -7,294 -7,562 5,030 -11,443 —44,460 - 100,328 -123,870 - 150,203 -167,308 -127,168 -101,624 -91,861 -8,324 -66,400 9,406 1,769 -11,853 -7,644 -6,685 -18,253 -17,775 -23,687 -22,308 -27,172 -27,986 Includes transfers of goods and services under U.S. military grant programs. See p. 37 for continuation of table. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, U.S. claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks decreased $7.5 billion in the third quarter of 1993, following a decrease of $5.3 billion in the second quarter. U.S. liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $23.5 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $1.4 billion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS' CHANGE IN FOREIGN ASSETS IN THE U.S., NET/ X •40 -60 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] U.S. assets abroad, net [increase /capit il outflow ( — ) ] Period Total 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1991: 1992: 1993: -114,147 -122,335 -58,735 -29,654 -34,687 -91,260 -61,254 — 91,423 -129,331 — 44,132 -59,974 -50,961 I -5,555 II -875 Ill -15,672 IV -37,870 I -1,029 II -8,695 Ill - 10,798 IV — 30,438 I -12,358 -29,341 II r Ill "... -43,961 U.S. official reserve 5 175 -4,965 1 196 -3,131 3 858 312 9,149 3 912 -25,293 2 158 5,763 3,901 -353 1,014 3,877 1,225 -1,057 1,464 1,952 1,542 -983 822 -545 Other U.S. Government assets Foreign assets in the U.S., net [increase/capital inflow ( + )] U.S. private assets -5,097 - 103,875 6 131 111 239 -5,006 -52,533 5489 -21,035 -2,821 -28,009 — 2,022 -89,551 1,006 -71,408 2,967 -90,477 1,259 - 105,297 2,307 -44,280 2,905 -68,643 -1,609 -53,253 559 -5,761 —419 -1,470 3,224 -22,774 -459 -38,637 -275 303 -293 9 866 -305 -12,445 -737 -31,243 535 — 11,910 275 -29,888 -86 -43,331 5 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), foreign currencies, and the U.S. tion in the IMF. Total 83,032 92,418 83,380 102,010 130,966 223,191 229,972 219,489 213,571 105,173 83,439 129,579 -20 7,120 23,514 52,826 19,834 44,450 26,450 38,845 25,718 42,380 66,452 Foreign official assets 3 Other foreign assets 4,960 3,593 5,845 3,140 -1,119 35,648 45,387 39,758 8,503 34,198 17,564 40,684 5,604 -4,924 3,855 13,029 21,124 21,008 -7,378 5,931 10,929 17,699 19,646 78,072 88,826 77,534 98,870 132,084 187,543 184,585 179,731 205,068 70,975 65,875 88,895 -5,624 12,044 19,659 39,798 -1,290 23,442 33,828 32,914 14,789 24,681 46,806 Statistical discrepancy Allocations of special drawing rights (SDKs) 1,093 Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) 24,992 41,359 19,815 27,972 27,592 18,272 -1,410 -899 17,384 30,820 -15,140 -12,218 -3,831 -8,014 4,011 -7,312 — 12,120 -17,502 2,123 15,280 8,948 14,133 5,495 Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy 4,710 -120 -6,506 1,911 4,878 653 -6,754 1,222 5,814 681 -7,605 U.S. official reserve assets, net5 {unadjusted, end of period) 30,074 33,958 33,747 34,934 43,186 48,511 45,798 47,802 74,609 83,316 77,721 71,323 78,002 74,940 74,731 77,721 74,657 77,092 78,527 71,323 74,378 73,968 75,835 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING p,«e Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product in 1987 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross Domestic Product Changes in GDP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Implicit Price Deflators and Price Indexes Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures in 1987 Dollars Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment in 1987 Dollars Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 , EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Employment Cost Index—Private Industry Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 ,16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders « 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base Bank Loans and Securities Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Consumer Installment Credit Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: p Preliminary. r Revised. c Corrected. ... Not available (also, not applicable). NSA not seasonally adjusted. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, B.C. 20402. Price $2.75 (single copy) ($3.44 foreign). Subscription price: $30.00 per year; $37.50 for foreign mailing. 38 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1993 0 - 75-193