Full text of Economic Indicators : December 1983
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98th Congress, 1st Session Economic Indicators DECEMBER 1983 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1983 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) ROGER W. JEPSEN, Iowa, Chairman LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Vice Chairman SENATE WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) JAMES ABDNOR (South Dakota) STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho) MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia) ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York) LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland) HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana) PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland) AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California) DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin) JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) MARJORIE S. HOLT (Maryland) DAN LUNGREN (California) OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine) BRUCE R. BARTLETT, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS MARTIN FELDSTEIN, Chairman WILLIAM A. NISKANEN, Member WILLIAM POOLE, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—SlsT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $4.25 a single copy ($5.35 foreign), or by subscription at $25.00 per year ($31.25 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to revised estimates for the third quarter, gross national product rose $90.2 billion or 11.5 percent, both at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 7.6 percent (annual rate) and the implicit price deflator rose at a 3.6 percent annual rate. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 3,600 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 3,600 SEASON/ULY ADJUSTED ANNUAl RATES — ^E 3,200 ^^ _• ^1 -^ GNP 2,800 IN aJRRENT DOLLA RS S 3,200 * 2,800 — — 2,400 2,400 / — 2,000 E 2,000 : — 1,600 r ^ GNP *»**""*** i i i IN 1972 DOl LARS ^ »**""*"""""* 1,200 1 1 1 1 1 1 1977 1976 1975 1 i 1 i 1 i 1979 1978 1 1 i 1980 1 1 1 1981 1 1 i i i 1 1982 SOURCf DFPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures 1971 1972 1,077.6 1,185.9 672.2 737.1 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1981: III IV 1982: I II Ill IV 1983: I II III r 1,326.4 1,434.2 1,549.2 1,718.0 1,918.3 2,163.9 2,417.8 2,631.7 2,954.1 3,073.0 3,004.9 3,032.2 3,021.4 3,070.2 3,090.7 3,109.6 3,171.5 3,272.0 3,362.2 812.0 888.1 976.4 1,084.3 ,204.4 ,346.5 1,507.2 1,668.1 ,857.2 ,991.9 1,886.1 1,904.1 1,938.9 1,972.8 2,008.8 2,046.9 2,073.0 2,147.0 2,181.1 Gross private domestic investment 166.4 195.0 229.8 228.7 206.1 257.9 324.1 386.6 423.0 401.9 474.9 414.5 495.8 476.2 422.9 432.5 425.3 377.4 404.1 450.1 501.1 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Goveniment pureh*tses of goo ds and services Exports arid imports of goods and services Pin « 1 Federal Net exports 4.1 .7 14.2 13.4 26.8 13.8 -4.0 -1.1 13.2 23.9 26.3 17.4 22.8 29.2 29.9 33.3 .9 5.6 17.0 -8.5 -18.3 Exports Imports Total Tntal 68.8 77.5 109.6 146.2 154.9 170.9 182.7 218.7 281.4 338.8 368.8 347.6 367.5 371.0 358.4 364.5 346.0 321.6 326.9 327.1 341.1 64.7 76.7 95.4 132.8 128.1 157.1 186.7 219.8 268.1 314.8 342.5 330.2 344.7 341.7 328.5 331.2 345.0 316.1 309.9 335.6 359.4 234.9 253.1 270.4 304.1 339.9 362.1 393.8 431.9 474.4 537.8 595.7 649.2 600.3 622.8 629.8 631.6 655.7 679.7 677.4 683.4 698.3 96.2 101.7 102.0 111.0 122.7 129.2 143.4 153.6 168.3 197.0 229.2 258.7 232.4 248.5 249.7 244.1 261.7 279.2 273.5 273.7 278.1 National defense 70.2 73.1 72.8 77.0 83.0 86.0 92.8 100.3 111.8 131.2 154.0 179.4 154.9 166.7 168.1 175.2 183.6 190.8 194.4 199.4 201.2 Nondefense 26.0 28.5 29.1 33.9 39.7 43.2 50.6 53.3 56.5 65.9 75.2 79.3 77.5 81.8 81.7 68.9 78.1 88.5 79.1 74.3 76.9 State and local 138.7 151.4 168.5 193.1 217.2 232.9 250.4 278.3 306.0 340.8 366.5 390.5 367.9 374.3 380.0 387.5 394.0 400.5 404.0 409.7 420.2 1,070.0 1,175.7 1,307.9 1,420.1 1,556.1 1,706.2 1,895.3 2,137.4 2,403.5 2,641.5 2,935.6 3,097.5 2,971.4 3,017.9 3,047.1 3,081.4 3,095.6 3,165.9 3,210.9 3,286.6 3,353.7 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS [Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] • Period Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed ,185.9 ,254.3 ,246.3 ,231.6 ,298.2 ,369.7 ,438.6 ,479.4 ,475.0 ,513.8 ,485.4 696.8 737.1 767.9 762.8 779.4 823.1 864.3 903.2 927.6 931.8 956.8 970.2 112.2 121.0 138.1 135.7 119.3 125.6 140.3 158.3 169.9 165.8 174.4 166.1 53.7 63.8 62.3 48.2 42.2 51.2 60.7 62.4 59.1 47.1 44.7 37.8 1981: III IV 1,525.8 1,506.9 962.9 955.7 177.0 176.3 43.1 39.4 1982: I II Ill IV 1,485.8 1,489.3 1,485.7 1,480.7 961.4 968.8 971.0 979.6 173.6 167.1 163.3 160.5 36.3 37.8 36.5 40.6 1983: I II r 1,490.1 1,525.1 1,553.4 986.7 1,010.6 1,016.0 159.9 163.0 170.1 45.5 52.6 56.8 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 ,122.4 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 ni Exj)orts of go ods G ross privat e dome stic investiiient Governinent purch ases of good s and services a nd services Federal Change in business inventories Net exports 8.1 10.2 17.2 Exports Total Imports Total National defense Nondefense 73.1 28.5 167.8 168.4 168.8 174.3 176.2 177.9 176.1 175.2 37.4 38.7 175.0 175.1 1,509.7 1,500.9 75.5 77.8 80.4 81.4 39.1 32.5 36.5 43.0 174.9 175.4 175.3 175.2 1,495.9 1,492.7 1,487.0 1,503.4 82.7 84.2 84.2 35.7 33.4 34.7 174.5 174.5 176.3 1,505.5 1,530.5 1,549.7 81.8 80.7 71.4 84.7 90.9 102.7 109.0 108.8 116.7 118.4 103.7 101.7 95.9 96.6 97.4 96.8 100.4 100.3 102.1 106.4 110.4 116.6 68.3 66.9 66.4 64.9 65.4 65.7 67.4 70.0 73.6 78.8 27.6 29.7 31.0 31.8 35.0 34.7 34.8 36.4 36.8 37.8 159.0 158.7 119.1 118.8 286.8 289.6 111.8 114.5 74.4 75.7 35.2 33.4 24.0 23.0 151.8 154.5 146.4 136.5 116.6 121.1 122.4 113.5 289.4 285.8 292.2 299.7 114.5 110.3 116.9 124.4 20.5 12.3 11.4 137.3 136.2 140.7 116.8 123.9 129.2 292.9 292.1 295.2 118.4 117.6 118.9 11.6 6.7 7.8 13.3 16.0 7.3 -4.4 8.5 -9.4 .7 15.5 27.8 32.2 25.4 22.0 24.0 37.2 50.3 43.0 28.9 108.5 103.5 110.1 112.9 126.7 146.2 159.1 159.7 147.3 16.1 6.0 39.8 39.9 -10.2 -3.4 -1.3 -22.7 -15.4 -5.4 3.8 69.3 76.7 Final sales ,114.3 ,175.7 ,237.1 ,234.7 ,238.4 1,290.4 1,356.4 1,422.6 1,472.2 1,479.4 1,505.3 1,494.8 250.1 253.1 253.3 260.3 265.2 265.2 269.2 274.6 278.3 284.3 286.5 291.8 71.0 77.5 97.3 1.6 State and local 146.4 151.4 157.4 163.6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1972 = 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Period Gross national product Gross private domestic i nvestment Personal c onsumption expenditures Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Residential fixed Exports 97.0 100.0 112.7 134.8 149.6 155.3 96.01 100.00 105.75 115.08 125.79 132.34 140.05 150.42 163.42 178.42 195.14 206.88 96.5 100.0 105.7 116.4 125.3 131.7 139.3 149.1 162.5 179.0 194.1 205.3 99.0 100.0 101.7 108.2 117.3 123.9 129.2 136.4 145.0 156.2 167.3 174.8 96.6 100.0 108.5 123.4 132.5 137.2 143.6 153.4 169.9 188.1 202.5 209.0 95.6 100.0 104.7 113.0 121.6 129.6 139.3 150.0 162.3 178.8 195.8 211.6 96.2 100.0 103.8 115.4 132.2 138.6 146.3 157.2 170.8 186.2 201.9 209.7 94.8 100.0 109.1 120.3 131.0 140.7 158.0 178.3 200.5 218.5 233.5 240.2 1981: III IV 196.94 201.22 195.9 199.2 169.3 171.2 203.8 205.5 197.9 202.5 203.7 208.5 1982: I II Ill IV 203.36 206.15 208.03 210.00 201.7 203.6 206.9 209.0 172.9 174.2 176.1 176.1 206.8 207.6 210.2 211.2 206.3 209.4 213.4 217.2 1983: I II Ill r 212.83 214.55 216.44 210.1 212.5 214.7 177.3 177.5 179.1 210.6 213.4 215.5 219.8 223.1 225.7 Gove rnment pure lases of goo ds and sernces Federal Nonresidential fixed 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Exports ant [ imports of goods an(i services Imports Total National defense Nondefense State and local 126.0 133.5 142.8 153.1 164.8 185.2 207.7 222.0 106.6 115.1 124.9 132.4 141.9 152.7 166.0 187.5 209.3 227.7 100.0 105.6 114.2 128.2 135.7 144.6 153.8 162.5 180.8 204.5 210.0 94.7 100.0 107.0 118.0 129.4 138.3 148.4 159.7 173.7 191.5 208.1 222.9 289.4 287.7 207.9 217.0 208.3 220.0 207.0 211.2 210.2 213.8 236.1 236.0 236.3 235.6 281.8 273.6 281.8 278.5 218.0 221.3 223.8 224.4 222.7 225.1 228.3 234.3 209.1 212.3 213.9 205.7 217.3 220.9 224.7 228.5 238.0 240.2 242.5 265.4 270.7 278.1 230.9 232.7 233.8 234.9 236.7 238.8 221.7 222.6 221.7 231.6 234.8 238.3 93.3 100.0 116.7 164.6 92.7 100.0 106.3 114.9 161.9 172.6 192.5 212.9 230.8 236.0 179.6 185.6 205.5 214.1 246.1 289.4 293.4 278.9 235.7 239.2 231.2 233.8 208.1 211.1 209.6 209.9 240.8 240.9 240.9 238.4 207.7 206.3 206.3 244.9 243.9 249.0 100.0 CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Personal 3onsumption eitpenditures Gro ss national pr(>duct Period 8.6 10.1 11.8 8.1 8.0 10.9 11.7 12.8 11.7 8.8 12.2 4.0 13.3 3.7 -1.4 6.6 2.7 2.5 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1981: 1982: m IV I n ni IV 1983: Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars . I 8.2 13.3 11.5 n nr. Implicit price deflator Chain price index Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars Implicit price deflator 4.2 5.1 5.8 7.0 9.0 10.2 8.4 5.8 3.6 6.1 10.4 7.7 5.3 6.0 7.3 9.3 10.7 9.0 5.9 3.5 6.1 10.4 7.8 5.3 6.2 7.4 9.7 11.1 9.2 5.7 2.4 3.1 .9 3.6 7.7 7.0 5.0 4.0 6.5 4.1 7.8 7.0 5.2 3.9 6.4 5.1 7.5 6.8 4.8 3.5 6.7 5.1 2.9 10.0 2.2 2.2 4.6 4.2 2.3 4.7 4.2 1.6 4.9 4.4 8.1 3.7 7.6 8.9 8.9 9.4 6.5 4.0 6.0 9.4 9.1 5.8 6.3 7.8 9.5 9.8 9.5 6.4 5.8 4.2 -.7 2.2 5.6 5.0 4.5 2.7 .5 2.7 1.4 9.0 8.2 8.9 8.4 4.3 5.6 3.7 3.8 5.6 5.2 5.9 5.0 5.3 4.7 5.9 4.7 9.6 10.2 9.4 9.9 11.0 11.1 11.8 11.9 10.7 11.3 7.3 11.4 3.9 7.5 7.2 7.5 7.8 5.5 3.3 3.6 3.6 4.3 4.5 3.4 4.3 4.7 5.2 15.1 6.5 5.0 4.2 5.8 -.6 -1.2 5.4 5.5 5.0 2.8 -.3 2.6 1.9 3.6 -4.9 5.8 8.8 9.3 5.2 5.8 7.4 8.6 9.2 9.4 6.0 9.4 9.0 -5.5 1.0 -1.0 -1.3 2.6 9.7 7.6 4.9 4.1 6.0 9.1 9.2 5.7 6.1 NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) 4.3 4.8 3.4 5.7 Chain price . index 4.3 3.7 5.7 10.1 7.6 3.5 3.0 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Cunrent-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollairs) 1 Gross c omestic product of ilonfinancial corporate business (billions c f dollars) Period Current dollars 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 626.8 678.0 818.9 708.2 694.2 745.5 795.8 846.3 0.973 0.091 1.000 1.038 1.156 1.282 1.343 1.418 1.508 1.617 1.793 1.960 890.0 1,001.3 1,128.4 1,276.2 1,416.8 1,540.7 1,739.9 1,776.7 859.5 887.5 857.7 2.072 1,778.6 1,778.9 898.6 878.9 2.024 Ill IV 1,764.9 1,780.2 1,786.8 1,775.0 864.3 860.5 859.5 846.4 2.042 2.069 2.079 2.097 I II IIP 1,817.6 1,892.4 1,957.8 856.0 885.8 909.4 2.123 2.136 2.153 .252 .245 .241 HI IV.. 1982: I n 1 609.9 678.0 759.4 .092 .093 .112 .137 .141 .145 .155 .171 .198 .217 .245 .217 .229 .236 .242 .247 .254 1980 1981 1982 1981: 1983: 1972 dollars Total cost and profit 2 Capital consumption allowances with capital consumption adjustment 731.9 876.1 1.979 Indirect business taxes 3 0.641 .659 .692 0.029 .028 .031 .204 .207 .209 .215 .786 .837 .878 .928 .998 1.094 1.218 1.302 1.397 1.306 1.342 1.374 1.394 1.403 1.419 .042 .044 .040 .040 .044 .050 .065 .074 .076 .081 .080 .080 .079 .072 .073 .218 .223 .221 1.428 1.416 1.412 .070 .066 .065 0.113 .113 .114 .127 .140 .141 .141 .144 .149 .172 .199 .209 .199 .204 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1972 dol- This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. Net interest Total lars. 2 Compensation of employ- Corporate profits with inventory valuation imd capital cc nsumption adjustments 3 4 0.099 .107 .107 .090 .124 .144 .163 .168 .154 .140 Profits tax liability 0.047 .169 .145 .177 .169 .148 .147 .148 .135 .049 .055 .059 .059 .071 .075 .079 .079 .078 .074 .048 .075 .068 .053 .051 .049 .040 .156 .187 .214 .049 .062 .070 Profits after tax 4 0.052 .058 .053 .030 .065 .073 .088 .089 .075 .062 .095 .097 .102 .101 .095 .096 .099 .095 .108 .125 .144 Output per hour of all employees (1972 dollars) Compensation per hour of all employees (dollars) 7.450 7.664 7.849 7.555 7.774 8.002 4.778 5.052 5.429 5.937 6.507 7.024 7.558 8.144 8.216 8.201 8.126 8.198 8.332 8.373 8.969 9.894 10.850 11.700 8.392 8.323 10.957 11.171 8.342 8.330 8.409 8.421 11.463 11.614 11.795 11.952 8.492 8.627 8.738 12.126 12.213 12.331 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] National income Period Compensation of employees * Proprietors' income with inventory v iluation and capital co nsumption adjust ments Farm Corporate p rofits with inv 3ntory valuatio n and capital consumption adjustments Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Nonfarm Profits •%ith inventory valuation adjustmc nt and withou t capital consiimption adjust ment Total -4.6 108.3 94.9 110.5 138.1 167.3 192.4 194.8 175.4 192.3 164.8 -6.6 -20.0 -40.0 -11.6 -14.7 -16.2 -24.0 -43.1 -42.9 -23.6 -8.4 -1.8 -10.1 13.5 -11.3 -12.7 -14.8 -16.3 -11.0 -1.1 46.5 51.2 60.2 76.1 84.5 87.2 102.5 121.7 153.8 192.6 249.9 261.1 42.7 45.6 197.6 192.0 208.3 201.5 227.7 217.2 -19.4 -15.7 -10.7 -9.5 268.0 265.3 83.7 88.1 87.8 90.2 47.4 49.0 50.9 52.3 162.0 166.8 168.5 161.9 167.7 170.3 168.3 157.2 173.2 178.8 177.3 167.5 -5.5 -8.5 -9.0 -10.3 -5.6 -3.5 .1 4.7 265.0 268.3 256.4 254.7 98.4 106.2 111.2 54.1 54.8 53.9 181.8 218.2 248.4 168.0 192.7 210.8 169.7 203.3 229.1 -1.7 -10.6 -18.3 13.9 25.6 37.6 248.3 243.8 246.1 20.2 21.0 83.2 96.6 22.6 23.5 23.0 23.5 24.8 26.6 27.9 31.5 41.4 49.9 1981: HI IV 2,423.4 2,435.6 1,791.7 1,815.6 35.0 31.3 88.5 85.8 1982: 2,419.7 2,448.9 2,458.9 2,474.0 1,834.2 1,859.9 1,879.5 1,889.0 27.4 16.8 15.8 26.0 2,528.5 2,612.8 2,686.9 1,923.7 1,968.7 2,011.8 22.2 21.0 15.5 I IV 1983: I n 111 1 1.3 2.7 2.7 86.6 100.6 125.6 136.7 132.1 166.3 194.7 229.1 252.7 234.6 227.0 174.2 54.4 58.1 61.0 62.2 65.4 75.0 84.8 92.2 100.2 95.6 89.7 87.4 n in adjustment 94.0 105.6 96.7 120.6 151.6 178.5 205.1 209.6 191.7 203.3 165.9 15.0 18.7 32.8 26.5 24.6 19.1 19.1 26.3 31.9 21.8 30.5 21.5 , Net interest 82.0 652.2 718.0 801.3 877.5 931.4 1,036.3 1,152.1 1,301.1 1,458.1 1,599.6 1,769.2 1,865.7 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Inventory valuation adjustment Profits Total 871.5 963.6 ,086.2 ,160.7 ,239.4 ,379.2 ,550.5 ,760.3 1,966.7 2,116.6 2,373.0 2,450.4 1971 1972 Capital consump- Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] No adurable goods Durabh3 goods Period Total personal consumption expenditures Total durable goods Motor vehicles and parts Furniture and household equipment 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 672.2 737.1 812.0 888.1 976.4 1,084.3 1,204.4 1,346.5 1,507.2 1,668.1 1,857.2 1,991.9 97.2 111.1 123.3 121.5 132.2 156.8 178.2 200.2 213.4 214.7 236.1 244.5 45.4 52.4 57.1 50.4 55.8 72.6 84.8 95.7 96.6 90.7 101.6 109.9 37.2 41.7 47.1 1981: III IV 1,886.1 1,904.1 243.5 230.8 1982: I II Ill IV 1,938.9 1,972.8 2,008.8 2,046.9 1983: I II Ill r 2,073.0 2,147.0 2,181.1 Total nondurable goods Food Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil 50.6 23.9 25.4 28.6 Services Other Domestics Imports 1.6 1.6 36.6 40.4 44.0 48.1 51.2 66.6 84.8 94.6 91.5 60.1 64.9 71.2 78.2 83.7 91.9 98.2 108.8 122.8 134.3 148.1 153.5 296.2 325.3 355.2 393.2 437.0 485.7 547.4 618.0 693.7 784.5 887.1 986.4 8.7 9.3 9.6 7.4 7.0 8.5 9.0 9.2 8.2 6.6 6.2 5.8 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.2 116.8 117.2 95.1 95.6 150.2 151.7 901.5 925.6 6.8 5.1 2.2 2.2 388.1 394.7 400.4 404.5 118.4 119.0 119.2 119.6 94.0 89.6 91.3 91.1 149.2 151.5 155.6 157.9 949.7 975.2 998.9 1,021.8 5.8 5.7 5.6 6.0 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.5 411.7 419.6 426.4 120.0 126.4 125.1 87.3 90.3 93.1 158.1 163.3 170.2 1,037.4 1,069.7 1,083.5 6.1 6.9 7.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 50.6 53.5 59.1 65.7 72.8 81.8 86.3 93.3 93.5 14.6 16.9 19.2 20.5 22.9 25.2 27.7 31.7 35.1 37.7 41.2 41.1 278.8 300.6 333.4 373.4 407.3 441.7 478.8 528.2 600.0 668.8 733.9 761.0 144.2 154.9 172.1 193.7 213.6 230.6 249.8 275.9 311.6 345.1 375.9 396.9 55.4 61.4 64.8 69.6 75.3 82.6 92.4 99.1 104.6 115.3 119.0 107.7 96.5 93.8 93.4 42.0 40.9 741.1 747.7 378.9 383.2 239.4 242.9 243.4 252.1 106.4 107.6 109.4 116.1 91.7 93.9 93.5 94.9 41.3 41.4 40.5 41.0 749.7 754.7 766.6 773.0 258.5 277.7 282.8 118.4 133.9 135.6 97.3 100.8 102.9 42.9 43.1 44.3 777.1 799.6 814.8 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Other Retail sal es of new passeng er cars (millions of units) SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income increased $20.4 billion (annual rate) in November following a rise of $30.3 billion in October. Wages and salaries rose $4.2 billion in November compared to a rise of $18.5 billion in October. The larger increase in October was partly due to the telephone strike, which had reduced payrolls by about $5 billion in both August and September. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,200 2,800 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,200 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Proprietors ' income 3 Period 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Total personal income salary Other labor Farm ments * Nonfarm 1,065.2 1,168.6 1,265.0 1,391.2 1,540.4 1,732.7 1,951.2 2,165.3 2,435.0 2,578.6 702.7 765.7 806.4 889.9 983.2 1,106.3 1,237.6 1,356.7 1,493.2 1,568.1 48.8 55.8 64.5 75.9 89.4 102.5 114.9 128.0 143.5 156.6 32.8 26.5 24.6 19.1 19.1 26.3 31.9 21.8 30.5 21.5 61.0 62.2 65.4 75.0 84.8 92.2 100.2 95.6 89.7 87.4 Rental income of persons 4 Personal dividend income Personal interest income Transfer payments 5 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance Nonfarm personal income 6 23.0 23.5 24.8 26.6 27.9 31.5 41.4 49.9 26.5 29.1 29.9 36.5 39.6 45.3 50.8 56.8 62.8 66.4 93.9 112.4 123.2 132.5 152.8 179.4 218.7 266.0 341.3 366.2 119.5 141.2 178.3 194.3 207.9 223.8 250.3 297.6 337.2 374.5 55.5 61.1 69.8 81.1 88.7 104.6 112.0 1,023.7 1,131.8 1,229.1 1,359.3 1,506.5 1,689.7 1,899.3 2,119.5 2,377.0 2,527.6 22.6 23.5 42.6 47.9 50.4 1982: Nov Dec 2,633.1 2,645.0 1,583.1 1,591.8 160.4 161.2 28.1 26.1 89.0 92.5 52.9 51.0 68.0 68.3 363.3 364.3 401.0 403.0 112.7 113.1 2,575.5 2,589.4 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July r. Aug r Sept r Oct r Nov* 2,652.6 2,650.5 2,670.1 2,689.0 2,719.3 2,732.6 2,747.6 2,756.4 2,781.6 2,811.9 2,832.3 1,608.9 1,606.3 1,616.8 1,632.1 1,652.2 1,660.9 1,673,5 1,680.5 1,691.8 1,710.3 1,714.5 162.6 164.2 166.0 168.1 170.1 172.2 174.3 176.3 178.4 180.6 182.6 22.9 21.3 22.3 22.1 21.4 19.4 16.6 14.9 15.0 21.2 29.4 96.7 97.8 100.8 103.1 106.6 109.0 109.9 110.9 113.0 113.3 114.1 53.8 54.1 54.3 54.6 54.8 55.0 55.3 50.8 55.8 56.0 56.2 68.7 68.9 68.9 69.0 69.4 69.5 70.2 70.9 71.6 72.3 72.9 360.0 356.0 355.7 355.0 356.9 359.4 364.4 370.2 375.2 378.1 380.4 395.4 398.1 402.0 402.7 406.7 406.7 403.5 402.2 401.9 402.2 404.6 116.6 116.2 116.8 117.6 118.8 119.5 120.1 120.3 121.1 122.1 122.4 2,600.2 2,599.7 2,618.4 2,637.5 2,668.5 2,683.8 2,701.4 2,711.8 2,736.7 2,760.7 2,772.8 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. 2 Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workmen's compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 4 With capital consumption adjustment. Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. 5 6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable income rose again in the third quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,600 FT BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,400 2,000 1,800 1,600 ,400 1,200 1,000 800 DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 1975 1983 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Personal income Less: Personal tax and nontax payments COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Equals: Disposable personal income Less: Personal outlays * Equals: Personal saving Per c apita disposable personal incc me Per capitai personal consurnption expent iitures Current dollars Current dollars 1972 dollars Billions of dol ars 1972 dollars Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population (thousands) 2 Per cent Do lars 3,237 3,511 3,831 4,152 4,521 4,972 5,468 6,048 6,695 7,326 8,078 8,581 3,355 3,511 3,623 3,566 3,609 3,774 3,924 4,057 4,121 4,092 4,162 4,180 2.4 2.9 5.7 -1.7 1.0 2.6 2.9 3.8 1.6 -.6 2.2 -.4 4,640 4,612 8,194 8,250 4,183 4,141 7.8 -2.4 7.2 7.5 230,187 230,797 9,199 9,315 9,430 9,562 4,562 4,574 4,558 4,576 8,382 8,511 8,644 8,785 4,156 4,180 4,178 4,204 -4.3 1.1 -1.4 1.6 6.1 5.9 5.6 5.4 231,304 231,790 232,387 232,990 9,661 9,834 10,069 4,599 4,629 4,690 8,878 9,176 9,299 4,226 4,319 4,331 2.0 2.6 5.4 5.4 4.0 4.9 233,501 233,984 234,564 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 868.4 951.4 1,065.2 1,168.6 1,265.0 1,391.2 1,540.4 1,732.7 1,951.2 2,165.3 2,435.0 2,578.6 116.7 141.0 150.7 170.2 168.9 196.8 226.4 258.7 301.0 336.5 387.4 402.1 751.8 810.3 914.5 998.3 1,096.1 1,194.4 1,314.0 1,474.0 1,650.2 1,828.9 2,047.6 2,176.5 691.1 757.7 835.5 913.2 1,001.8 1,111.9 1,236.0 1,384.6 1,553.5 1,718.7 1,912.4 2,051.1 1981: III IV 2,490.9 2,516.6 398.9 396.1 2,092.0 2,120.5 1,942.3 1,961.5 149.7 159.0 9,088 9,188 1982: 2,528.1 2,563.2 2,591.3 2,632.0 400.2 404.2 399.8 404.1 2,127.9 2,159.0 2,191.5 2,227.8 1,997.0 2,031.9 2,068.4 2,107.0 130.8 127.1 123.0 120.8 2,657.7 2,713.6 2,761.9 401.8 412.6 400.1 2,255.9 2,301.0 2,361.7 2,134.2 2,209.5 2,245.9 121.7 91.5 115.8 60.7 52.6 79.0 85.1 94.3 82.5 78.0 89.4 96.7 110.2 135.3 125.4 Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income 3,620 3,860 4,315 4,667 5,075 5,477 5,965 6,621 7,331 8,032 8,906 9,377 3,752 3,860 4,080 4,009 4,051 4,158 4,280 4,441 4,512 4,487 4,587 4,567 8.1 6.5 8.6 8.5 8.6 6.9 5.9 6.1 5.9 6.0 6.6 5.8 207,692 209,924 211,939 213,898 215,981 218,086 220,289 222,629 225,106 227,694 229,916 232,118 Seas(mally adju sted annual rates I II Ill IV 1983: I II III'.... 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). 2 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the third quarter, according to current estimates, gross farm income fell $0.9 billion (annual rate) and net farm income fell $1.1 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* [RATIO SCALE) 200 160 160 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 NET FARM INCOME- 40 40 20 20 I V 10 J 1975 1976 1977 1979 1978 1980 1981 1982 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE I I 10 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] In come of farm operators (xross Net farai income Gas h marketing rece ipts Total 1 Total 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Livestock and products .8 4.9 -5.3 7.6 -1.9 72.7 69.0 75.6 75.0 3.1 10.1 9.5 7.9 135.1 136.5 137.8 138.6 26.1 28.6 34.4 31.1 9.9 10.7 12.5 11.0 70.7 71.0 70.2 68.9 76.9 71.0 72.1 77.4 2.0 -1.7 3.5 -4.2 141.0 141.5 140.3 137.6 27.4 17.0 15.6 28.2 9.7 5.9 5.3 9.6 71.5 70.8 70.1 72.5 70.5 75.6 136.6 135.1 135.3 24.4 21.6 20.5 8.3 7.3 6.8 68.6 67.8 69.2 70.2 141.9 138.5 145.7 143.0 69.2 69.5 70.1 68.0 168.4 158.5 155.9 165.8 147.6 142.0 142.3 146.3 161.0 156.7 155.8 144.0 141.3 145.7 m IV 1982: I II Ill IV 1983: I II Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. 1967 dollars 3 15.9 11.8 10.9 14.2 161.2 165.1 172.2 169.7 111 P Current dollars 25.6 20.1 19.8 27.7 32.3 21.5 30.1 22.1 43.1 46.3 47.6 59.2 1 Production expenses 75.0 82.7 88.9 99.5 118.1 128.6 137.0 140.1 3.4 -1.5 1.1 88.9 95.4 96.2 112.9 131.8 140.5 142.3 144.6 I II Crops Value of inventory changes 2 45.8 49.0 48.6 53.7 63.2 72.7 73.1 74.4 100.6 102.9 108.7 127.2 150.4 150.1 167.1 162.2 1981: from farmi ng farm inconw 3 -3.5 -6.3 -12.3 Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index (Department of Labor). Source: Department of Agriculture, except as noted. 14.8 8.7 11.0 7.6 CORPORATE PROFITS In the third quarter, according to revised estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $25.8 billion (annual rate) from their second quarter level and after-tax profits rose $16.9 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3201 320 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 280 280 PROFITS BEFORE TAX 240 240 200 200 PROFITS AFTER TAX \ 160 160 120 120 TAX LIABILITY 80 80 —M .L 40 40 UNDISTRIBUTED PROFITS I I I I 1975 1976 1977 I I I 1980 1979 1978 I I 1981 1982 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual ratesl Pn)fits (before t ax) with inventory valuati on adjustment 1 Profits after ta X Doinestic industi-ies Nonfinancial Period Total 2 Total 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977.... 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1981: HI IV 1982: I II Ill IV 1983: I II III 1 2 r Financial Tax liability 86.6 100.6 125.6 136.7 132.1 166.3 194.7 229.1 252.7 234.6 227.0 174.2 49.0 58.9 76.6 85.1 81.5 102.5 122.0 145.9 165.1 149.8 144.1 115.1 22.9 24.4 27.0 29.9 30.8 37.4 40.8 47.0 52.7 58.6. 64.7 68.7 144.0 141.7 66.4 67.3 173,2 178.8 177.3 167.5 37.5 41.6 49.0 51.6 50.6 63.8 72.7 83.2 87.6 84.8 82.8 59.2 83.7 75.6 60.3 61.4 60.8 54.0 112.9 117.4 116.5 113.5 169.7 203.3 229.1 61.5 76.0 84.9 108.2 127.2 144.1 WKrkla Total 3 Manufacturing 131.5 128.1 125.4 107.6 13.4 13.9 12.5 21.3 22.4 26.6 26.9 27.1 23.6 32.8 27.6 33.3 37.8 30.2 27.4 25.2 27.5 118.0 138.4 155.5 53.7 68.1 78.2 27.8 33.9 36.7 74.9 85.3 92.0 80.4 107.6 137.4 163.4 185.4 179.0 161.9 179.7 144.1 14.1 15.3 15.9 15.0 11.8 17.1 23.1 31.0 30.3 26.9 20.3 20.9 60.8 70.0 76.0 65.4 95.8 120.3 140.3 154.4 148.6 134.9 159.4 123.2 208.3 201.5 186.5 174.7 18.8 18.1 167.7 156.5 167.7 170.3 168.3 157.2 147.0 148.5 147.6 133.1 15.5 20.4 22.2 25.5 168.0 192.7 210.8 147.8 172.2 187.4 29.8 33.8 31.9 Total Dividends sale and retail trade 34.1 40.7 45.5 39.0 52.6 69.2 78.3 86.9 85.6 72.9 86.7 59.0 93.3 76.9 60.9 61.4 65.5 48.3 82.0 94.0 105.6 96.7 120.6 151.6 178.5 205.1 209.6 191.7 203.3 165.9 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. Profits before tax 11.7 3 227.7 217.2 Undistributed profits 26.1 34.5 49.6 Inventory valuation adjustment -4.6 67.7 67.8 68.8 70.4 55.2 50.7 65.1 81.2 98.9 112.4 91.2 79.5 46.4 77.6 74.4 45.2 49.5 47.7 43.1 -6.6 -20.0 -40.0 -11.6 -14.7 -16.2 -24.0 -43.1 -42.9 -23.6 -8.4 -19.4 -15.7 -5.5 -8.5 -9.0 -10.3 71.4 72.0 73.7 36.7 55.2 70.4 -1.7 -10.6 -18.3 Includes industries not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to revised estimates for the third quarter, business fixed investment rose $14.7 billion (annual rate) and residential investment outlays rose $13.1 billion. There was an $8.5 billion increase in inventories following a decrease of $14.5 billion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 600 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 600 SEASON/ULY ADJUSTED ANNU At RATES _ K.r\r\ CAA GR(DSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMEh41 _ /- V,^ —-r^ A AOD S~~^ s^ NONRESIDEtN l T I A L ^ FIXED INVEST MENT \\ /~^ Qfjfl **** 9ftfi ^-"""~ •» *-»^ 400 ^ * — — ** ~~~* OAA ^** , — o/vj _^ RE 5IDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT •»•»»*" •«• «.«••"""*"*' inn • — — ""* ^ ^^ \ ^ ^ „ I 1 1975 1 1 1 1 1 1 1977 1976 1 1 1 1978 1 1 1 ^ — r-~-'""N \ ****** -^^ 1 i /•»/-) CHAN GE IN BUSINESS IN VENTORIES .„ «.,,— m — —^ -100 h-A VI ^|****•«* ' 0 l l l l l I 1 1 1 1980 1981 1982 1979 1 1 1 -100 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS OURCE: DEPARTMEN OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 vjross private domestic investment Total Structures Producers' durable equipment 67.4 76.9 92.3 100.7 102.3 115.3 140.8 170.2 191.9 197.9 218.8 414.5 205.2 248.9 290.2 308.8 352.2 348.3 40.5 44.1 51.0 55.9 55.4 58.8 64.4 78.7 98.3 110.9 133.4 141.9 1981: III IV 495.8 476.2 360.6 367.6 137.0 145.5 223.6 1982: I II 422.9 432.5 425.3 377.4 361.3 144.7 144.2 140.0 138.6 216.5 404.1 450.1 501.1 332.1 166.4 195.0 229.8 228.7 206.1 257.9 324.1 386.6 423.0 401.9 474.9 Ill IV 1983: I II 111 " 107.9 121.0 143.3 156.6 157.7 174.1 352.7 342.3 337.0 336.3 351.0 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 132.9 127.4 130.9 206.4 222.1 208.5 202.2 198.4 199.3 208.8 220.2 Change iii business mven ;ones Eesidential fixed investment Nonresic ential fixed imvestment Total Nonfarm structures Farm structures Producers durable equipment Total 7.7 Nonfarm 6.4 9.6 15.2 50.9 63.8 68.0 57.9 55.3 72.0 95.8 111.2 118.6 102.9 104.3 90.8 48.9 61.5 65.6 54.8 52.4 68.8 92.0 107.0 114.0 98.1 99.8 86.0 0.7 101.7 94.3 97.0 89.5 1.5 1.6 3.2 3.3 33.6 14.3 24.1 87.3 91.0 87.9 96.8 83.2 86.1 83.4 91.2 .9 1.6 1.3 2.3 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 25.7 -11.2 -27.6 4.9 -2.3 -53.7 111.3 128.4 141.5 106.7 123.3 136.3 1.3 1.5 1.6 3.4 3.5 3.6 -39.4 14.5 .7 .7 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.2 10.2 18.5 14.1 -6.9 11.8 23.0 26.5 14.3 9.8 18.5 24.5 -56.4 8.5 16.0 -10.5 13.9 21.9 25.4 8.6 -4.5 10.9 -23.1 6.2 8.8 -39.0 -10.3 18.4 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT—NONFARM BUSINESS According to the Commerce Department October-November survey, nonfarm business spending for new plant and equipment for the year 1983 is expected to be 4.2 percent below the 1982 level. Spending in 1982 was 1.6 percent below the 1981 level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 500 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 400 400 TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT \ 300 300 200 200 ^**^"^ NONMANUI NONMANUFACTUR1NG —7' MANUFACTURING 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 -L/ I I I 1976 I 1977 1978 I I 1979 1 I I 1981 I I 1980 i 1982 I I' 1983 I I I 1984 _!/ SEE FOOTNOTE BELOW SOURCE.- DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Plant and equip]ment Period Total Plant M anufacturin g Equipment Total 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1982: 1983: 4 HI IV I n r III ..... IV 1984: 4 I4 II 4 Durable goods Nonmanufacturing Nondurable goods Mining Transportation Public utilities Trade and services * Communication and other 2 157.71 171.45 198.08 231.24 270.46 295.63 321.49 316.43 303.20 65.23 71.12 80.19 92.63 105.75 117.57 133.35 134.58 92.48 100.33 117.89 138.60 164.68 178.06 188.14 181.86 54.92 59.95 69.22 79.72 98.68 115.81 126.79 119.68 111.18 26.33 28.47 34.04 40.48 51.07 58.91 61.84 56.44 51.45 28.59 31.47 35.18 39.29 47.61 56.90 64.95 63.23 59.74 102.79 111.50 128.87 151.52 171.77 179.81 194.70 196.75 192.01 6.10 7.44 9.24 10.21 11.38 13.51 16.86 15.45 12.00 8.68 8.89 9.40 10.68 12.35 12.09 12.05 11.95 11.25 19.98 22.37 26.79 29.95 33.96 35.44 38.40 41.95 42.62 46.23 49.30 56.54 68.66 79.26 81.79 86.33 86.95 88.02 21.80 23.51 26.90 32.02 34.83 36.99 41.06 40.46 38.11 313.76 303.18 134.43 127.32 179.33 175.86 118.26 110.23 56.61 50.51 61.65 59.72 195.51 192.95 14.57 13.41 11.29 12.33 43.02 43.00 86.88 84.36 39.75 39.84 25.31 293.03 293.46 304.70 321.60 125.40 125.60 130.59 167.62 167.86 174.12 109.86 108.79 111.12 114.97 50.74 48.48 53.06 53.52 59.12 60.31 58.06 61.45 183.17 184.67 193.59 206.62 12.03 10.91 11.93 13.14 11.04 10.88 11.00 12.10 41.61 41.48 42.22 45.17 82.38 85.85 91.06 92.79 36.11 35.54 37.38 43.42 23.35 119.00 120.96 57.18 58.09 61.81 62.86 204.08 204.47 12.25 13.68 10.78 11.42 41.82 42.30 96.98 95.03 42.25 42.03 323.07 325.42 1 Wholesale and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and personal, business, and professional services. 2 "Other" consists of construction; social services and membership organizations; and forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services. 10 Total Starts of plant and equipment projects, manufacturing 3 3 4 56.59 59.39 77.73 88.41 113.50 123.58 135.61 104.35 23.62 27.71 29.98 Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during given period. Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late October and November 1983, corrected for biases. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE Seasonally adjusted civilian employment rose 743,000 in November and unemployment fell 522,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* *16 Y E A R S OF AGE AND OVEk SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted] Period J Resident Armed Forces Total labor force including resident Armed Forces 160,689 163,541 166,460 169,349 171,775 173,939 ,656 ,631 ,597 ,604 ,645 ,668 100,665 103,882 106,559 108,544 110,315 111,872 93,673 97,679 100,421 100,907 102,042 101,194 99,009 102,251 104,962 106,940 108,670 110,204 92,017 96,048 98,824 99,303 100,397 99,526 1977 1978 4 1979 1980 1981 1982 Total employment including resident Armed Forces Unempk)yment Civilian ernployment Noninstitutional population including resident Armed Forces Nonagricultural Civilian labor force Total Agricultural 3,283 3,387 3,347 3,364 3,368 3,401 Total 88,734 92,661 95,477 95,938 97,030 96,125 Labor force particijmtion rate (pe rcent) Total 15 weeks and over Total 2 Civilian 3 3,369 3,298 3,373 4,064 4,499 5,852 6,991 6,202 6,137 7,637 8,273 10,678 1,942 1,414 1,241 1,871 2,285 3,485 62.6 63.5 64.0 64.1 64.2 64.3 62.3 63.2 63.7 63.8 63.9 64.0 Part-time for economic reasons l SeasonallyY adjusted Unadju sted 1982: Nov Dec 174,718 174,864 1,660 1,665 112,702 112,794 100,796 100,758 111,042 111,129 99,136 99,093 3,466 3,411 95,670 95,682 6,411 6,425 11,906 12,036 4,524 4,732 64.5 64.5 64.2 64.2 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept...r. Oct Nov 175,021 175,169 175,320 175,465 175,622 175,793 175,970 176,122 176,297 176,474 176,636 1,667 1,664 1,664 1,671 1,669 1,668 1,664 1,682 1,695 1,695 1,685 112,215 112,217 112,148 112,457 112,418 113,600 113,539 113,943 114,063 113,510 113,721 100,770 100,727 100,767 101,129 101,226 102,454 102,949 103,245 103,640 103,623 104,356 110,548 110,553 110,484 110,786 110,749 111,932 111,875 112,261 112,368 111,815 112,036 99,103 99,063 99,103 99,458 99,557 100,786 101,285 101,563 101,945 101,928 102,671 3,412 3,393 3,375 3,371 3,367 3,522 3,527 3,489 3,290 3,202 3,232 95,691 95,670 95,729 96,088 96,190 97,264 97,758 98,074 98,655 98,726 99,440 6,845 6,481 6,202 6,082 5,928 5,729 5,636 5,789 6,106 5,670 5,893 11,446 11,490 11,381 11,328 11,192 11,146 10,590 10,699 10,423 9,886 9,364 4,634 4,618 4,615 4,356 4,517 4,589 4,417 4,020 3,850 3,613 3,527 64.1 64.1 64.0 64.1 64.0 64.6 64.5 64.7 64.7 64.3 64.4 63.8 63.7 63.6 63.7 63.7 64.3 64.2 64.4 64.4 64.0 64.0 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc. 2 Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population (both including resident Armed ForeesK 3 Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population. 28-861 0 - 8 3 - 2 4 Data beginning 1978 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of revisions in the household survey, which added about 250,000 to labor force and to employment. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES The seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate, which includes resident Armed Forces in the labor force, fell toi 8.2 percent in November from 8.7 percent in October. The unemployment rate for all civilian workers fell to 8.4 percent in November from 8.8 percent in October. PERCENT* (SEASO NALLY ADJUS TED) PER CENT* (SEASO NALLY ADJUS TED) 25 25 i%/%A«i *1 ^ t / ^— 20 20 +s BLACK Ah4D OTh ER \ i * ,' 'VV A ~WV * 15 ^*l ALL C IVILIAN WORK t R s X , J /^•^-^ "^"^L/"*"" ^X""",,,,,'*••«...«"»„ / / Vfrt* 0^ <?** 5 '"•"'•.fiiin^' r/"'-' WOMEh 20 YEARS AN D OVER \ mi—i »_,,_lAr^r WHIT E " ^& 10 '"•••••xX '«„ 5 '««!« i 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 I I l I M i l l I I 1 I ! I 1 I I I iI I I I I I ! I I I I 1983 1982 19 81 1979 1980 0 TEENAGERS (16-19) 1 '*V¥ ^*% ^ •+9 10 f'Vu t«% t ***' *s***\ t 1 1 r».A/ - \ % % V" <•'! 15 si /* 0 I I I 1 st^vF"'' j- _^^ */ , ,,!«*'* 1 1 i 1979 1 | 1 1 11 1 11 1 1111 1980 ^ ^/^ MEN 20 >fEARS AND O VER I 111 I I I 1I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1982 1981 * UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIA M LABOR F ORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. SOURCE: DEPARTMEN T OF LABOR 1 111 111 1111 1983 COUNCIL OF E CONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemp] oyment ra te (percen t of civilia n labor force in group) Period Unemployment rate, all workers 1 6.9 6.0 5.87.0 7.5 9.5 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 By sex and a ge civilian workers Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over 5.8 7.1 7.6 9.7 5.2 4.3 4.2 5.9 6.3 8.8 7.0 6.0 5.7 6.4 7.1 6.1 By s elected grou] )S By race All Both sexes 16-19 years Black aiid other White Black Total Married men, spouse present Women who maintain families Fulltime workers Parttime workers 9.9 9.0 13.1 14.2 17.3 12.3 14.3 15.6 18.9 6.6 5.6 5.5 6.9 7.3 9.3 3.6 2.8 2.8 4.2 4.3 6.5 8.5 8.3 9.2 10.4 11.7 6.6 5.6 5.3 6.9 7.3 9.6 8.8 8.8 9.4 10.5 6.5 6.3 7.9 8.5 11.0 6.2 5.2 5.1 6.3 6.7 8.6 13.1 11.9 11.3 6.8 8.3 16.4 16.1 17.8 19.6 23.2 17.8 Experienced wage and salary workers Labor force time lost (percent) 2 14.0 12.8 9.4 7.6 1982: Nov... Dec... 10.6 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.0 10.1 9.0 9.2 24.2 24.5 9.6 9.7 18.5 18.8 20.2 20.8 10.5 10.7 7.6 7.8 12.5 13.2 10.6 10.8 11.3 11.1 12.4 12.7 1983: Jan... 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.0 9.8 9.3 9.4 9.1 8.7 8.2 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.5 9.5 9.3 8.8 8.4 9.6 9.9 9.6 9.8 9.6 9.0 8.8 8.8 8.7 8.2 7.8 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.4 8.5 8.6 7.9 8.0 7.8 7.4 7.1 22.7 22.2 23.5 23.4 23.0 23.6 22.8 23.0 21.8 21.6 19.9 9.1 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.9 8.6 8.2 8.2 8.1 7.7 7.3 19.0 18.0 18.5 18.8 18.6 18.9 17.9 18.1 17.2 16.6 15.8 20.8 19.7 19.9 20.8 20.6 20.6 19.5 20.0 19.0 18.1 17.3 10.1 10.1 10.1 9.9 9.8 9.4 9.0 9.1 8.8 8.5 8.0 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.6 6.1 6.3 6.1 5.8 5.5 13.2 13.0 13.5 13.2 12.9 12.8 11.6 11.6 12.2 11.1 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.3 10.2 9.9 9.7 9.4 9.4 9.2 8.7 8.2 10.6 10.1 10.5 10.6 11.0 12.1 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.8 9.6 11.7 12.0 11.8 11.4 11.5 10.8 10.4 10.6 10.6 10.0 9.8 Feb ... Mar... Apr ... May... June.. July .. Aug... Sept .. Oct.... Nov... 1 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces. Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. 2 12 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS m November, the percentage of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks fell, the percentage out of work for 5-14 weeks was unchanged, and the percentages out of work for 15-26 weeks and for more than 27 weeks rose. Both measures of average duration of unemployment—the mean and the median— were again about unchanged at 20.2 and 9.4 weeks, respectively. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 70 REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT 60 \ 50 40 REENTRANTS 30 \S- • >*%•*.. \s 20 20 NEW ENTRANTS 10 - JOB LEAVERS i iiiiIiiii 1982 1981 1980 1979 1983 1979 1983 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Re ason for \inemployment: percent distributio n 1 Dur ation of imemployiment Unemployment (thousands) Period P srcent dis tribution i Stat e prograims Numbe r of Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks 6,202 6,137 7,637 8,273 10,678 46.2 48.1 43.1 41.7 36.4 31.0 31.7 32.3 30.7 31.0 12.4 11.5 13.8 13.6 16.0 10.4 8.7 10.7 14.0 16.6 11.9 10.8 11.9 13.7 15.6 5.9 5.4 6.5 6.9 8.7 41.7 42.9 51.7 51.6 58.7 1982: Nov Dec 11,906 12,036 32.9 32.9 29.5 28.3 18.2 17.4 19.4 21.3 17.3 18.0 10.0 10.1 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr.. May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov 11,446 11,490 11,381 11,328 11,192 11,146 10,590 10,699 10,423 9,886 9,364 30.8 32.6 30.7 32.1 31.9 32.8 32.7 34.2 36.2 35.6 34.8 28.9 27.1 28.1 28.5 27.0 26.1 26.1 28.3 26.9 27.8 27.8 16.8 16.8 16.7 15.0 15.7 14.7 17.1 14.7 12.9 13.8 14.5 23.5 23.5 24.5 24.4 25.3 26.4 24.2 22.9 24.0 22.8 22.9 19.4 19.0 19.1 19.0 20.4 22.0 21.7 19.9 20.2 20.1 20.2 11.5 9.6 10.3 11.3 12.3 11.8 9.9 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.4 27 ' weeks Averand age over (mean) Median Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) 2 opecia ployment benefit claims (unadjusted) 3 Reentrants New entrants Insured unemployment 14.1 14.3 11.7 11.2 7.9 29.9 29.4 25.2 25.4 22.3 14.3 13.3 11.4 11.9 11.1 2,359 2,434 3,350 3,047 4,057 346 388 488 460 583 2,645 2,592 3,837 3,410 4,590 61.6 60.6 6.6 6.9 21.3 21.8 10.4 10.7 4,635 4,428 618 546 4,635 5,074 897 708 59.1 60.2 60.4 59.7 60.5 58.4 58.5 57.9 57.3 55.9 54.9 7.4 7.5 8.0 7.2 7.2 7.0 7.0 7.2 8.3 9.0 9.4 23.1 22.0 21.5 22.0 21.1 21.7 22.9 23.6 22.5 24.0 23.6 10.4 10.3 10.2 11.0 11.2 12.9 11.6 11.3 11.9 11.1 12.1 3,941 3,907 3,894 3,832 3,586 3,329 3,110 2,991 2,896 r 2,848 2,799 509 485 493 484 458 411 384 414 393 403 405 5,459 5,437 5,134 4,642 3,947 3,481 3,275 2,917 2,580 2,478 936 953 691 1,117 1,445 1,086 849 737 655 522 901 Job losers Job leavers Initial claims W eekly av«jrage, thousa nds 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 ..... 1 Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding. 2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program. 3 Federal supplemental compensation program. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 370,000 in November. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 90 :?=*-—• MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) 22 WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE 1—ir-hr^i ——*^" 20 ALLN ONAGRICUl TURAL ESJABLISHMEhJTS 80 SERVICES - 18 GOVERNMENT 70 60 SERVICE-PF ODUCING INDUSJRIES 14 - Illllllllll lllltlllHI I l l l l l l l l l l iiiiiliini 22 MANUFACTURING 20 50 40 .A. 16 18 - CONSTRUCTION GOODS- PRODUCING IND USTRIES 30 iiiiiliuii 20 "^ 'IA..-.J Illllllllll M l l l l l H I l Illllllllll Illllllllll 1979 1980 1981 1982 M l l l l l H I l IlllillUII 1979 1983 1980 1981 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1982 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers; * seasonally adjusted] Period employment 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: Nov Dec 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July...... Aug Sept r.... Get r Nov ".... Goods- jroducing in< ustries rrilotai f Oi nonagri- Service-p roducing ind ustries IV! anufacturing Total 2 Construction Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Transportation and public utilities Wholesale and retail trade Government Finance, insurance, and real estate Services Federal State and local 82,471 86,697 89,823 90,406 91,156 89,596 24,346 25,585 26,461 25,658 25,497 23,907 3,851 4,229 4,463 4,346 4,188 3,911 19,682 20,505 21,040 20,285 20,170 18,853 11,597 12,274 12,760 12,187 12,109 11,100 8,086 8,231 8,280 8,098 8,061 7,753 58,125 61,113 63,363 64,748 65,659 65,689 4,713 4,923 5,136 5,146 5,165 5,081 18,516 19,542 20,192 20,310 20,547 20,401 4,467 4,724 4,975 5,160 5,298 5,340 15,303 16,252 17,112 17,890 18,619 19,064 2,727 2,753 2,773 2,866 2,772 2,739 12,399 12,919 13,174 13,375 13,259 13,064 88,785 88,665 23,131 23,061 3,843 3,815 18,222 18,193 10,577 10,559 7,645 7,634 65,654 65,604 5,019 5,008 20,320 20,256 5,356 5,367 19,187 19,215 2,746 2,747 13,026 13,011 88,885 88,746 88,814 89,090 89,421 89,844 90,152 r 89,748 90,851 91,055 91,425 23,186 23,049 23,030 23,159 23,347 23,518 23,724 23,830 23,935 24,164 24,309 3,905 3,790 3,757 3,786 3,860 3,933 3,974 4,014 4,038 4,061 4,099 18,244 18,245 18,267 18,376 18,493 18,582 18,733 18,793 18,871 19,060 19,174 10,594 10,608 10,617 10,689 10,788 10,844 10,961 11,022 11,081 11,231 11,312 7,650 7,637 7,650 7,687 7,705 7,738 7,772 7,771 7,790 7,829 7,862 65,699 65,697 65,784 65,931 66,074 66,326 66,428 r 65,918 66,916 66,891 67,116 4,979 4,966 4,963 4,988 4,993 4,992 4,984 4,341 5,031 5,020 5,018 20,355 20,343 20,350 20,329 20,356 20,494 20,529 20,580 20,612 20,656 20,665 5,374 5,384 5,391 5,423 5,435 5,451 5,465 5,488 5,499 5,504 5,522 19,238 19,262 19,356 19,478 19,546 19,668 19,770 19,835 19,913 19,972 20,121 2,748 2,742 2,742 2,738 2,756 2,742 2,738 r 2,746 2,778 2,768 2,771 13,005 13,000 12,982 12,975 12,988 12,979 12,942 12,928 13,083 12,971 13,019 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial dis- 14 Total putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. « Includ ides mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average gi oss hourly earn ings \verage weekly hours Period Manufa cturing Total private nonagricultural l Total Total private nonagricultural l Overtime Manufacturing 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 36.5 36.1 36.1 36.0 35.8 35.7 35.3 35.2 34.8 40.0 39.5 40.1 40.3 40.4 40.2 39.7 39.8 38.9 3.3 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.3 $4.24 4.53 4.86 5.25 5.69 6.16 6.66 7.25 7.67 $4.42 4.83 5.22 5.68 6.17 6.70 7.27 7.99 8.50 1982: Nov Dec 34.7 34.8 39.0 39.0 2.3 2.3 7.78 7.82 8.61 8.63 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct r Nov p 35.1 34.5 34.8 34.9 35.1 35.1 35.0 35.0 35.2 35.3 35.2 39.7 39.2 39.5 40.1 40.0 40.1 40.2 40.3 40.8 40.6 40.5 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.3 7.88 7.91 7.91 7.95 7.97 8.00 8.03 7.98 8.08 8.12 8.11 8.68 8.76 8.75 8.78 8.79 8.82 8.85 8.84 8.87 8.93 8.98 Adjuste d hourly earnin ys index2 — total private nonagric ultural Percent chang e from a year earlie r 4 5 Ind ex, 1977 == 100 1977 dollars 3 Current dollars 80.0 86.7 92.9 100.0 108.2 116.8 127.3 138.9 148.3 151.1 151.9 152.7 153.4 153.4 154.0 154.6 154.8 155.2 155.0 155.9 156.7 156.7 Current dollars 1977 dollars 98.3 97.6 99.0 100.0 100.5 97.4 93.5 92.6 93.3 8.0 8.4 7.2 7.6 8.2 7.9 9.0 9.1 6.8 -2.8 .7 1.4 1.0 .5 -3.1 -4.0 -1.0 .8 93.4 94.1 5.7 6.0 1.1 2.0 94.7 95.3 95.0 94.8 94.7 94.8 94.7 94.0 94.2 94.4 94.1 5.4 5.7 5.4 5.2 4.8 4.6 4.3 3.6 3.9 4.0 3.7 1.8 2.4 1.6 1.2 1.4 2.1 2.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 .8 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Percent ch ange from a year earlier, total private n<magricultural 5 Avera £e gross weekly ea rmngs Period Total ]private nonagricultural 1 Current dollars 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: , Oct Nov Dec 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept r Oct r Nov" , Manufacturing 1977 dollars 3 Current dollars 1977 dollars $154.76 163.53 175.45 189.00 203.70 219.91 235.10 255.20 266.92 $190.12 184.16 186.85 189.00 189.31 183.41 172.74 170.13 167.87 $176.80 190.79 209.32 228.90 249.27 269.34 288.62 318.00 330.65 $249.25 266.08 283.73 295.65 318.69 342.99 367.78 399.26 426.45 $119.02 126.45 133.79 142.52 153.64 164.96 176.46 190.62 198.10 6.4 5.7 7.3 7.7 7.8 8.0 6.9 8.5 4.6 -4.1 3.1 1.5 1.2 .2 -3.1 5.8 -1.5 1.3 269.27 269.97 272.14 166.32 166.96 168.61 333.76 335.79 336.57 427.25 426.24 437.18 200.65 200.98 203.19 3.4 3.4 4.4 -1.6 -1.1 .5 276.59 272.90 275.27 277.46 279.75 280.80 281.05 279.30 284.42 286.64 285.47 .171.48 169.61 170.45 170.85 171.42 171.85 171.37 169.48 171.85 172.57 171.56 344.60 343.39 345.63 352.08 351.60 353.68 355.77 356.25 361.90 362.56 363.69 461.35 439.20 438.00 443.54 441.19 440.82 440.89 440.08 448.50 433.16 431.34 202.57 200.65 202.88 203.83 205.76 207.68 207.67 207.34 207.97 211.54 211.54 6.8 3.1 4.3 4.7 4.6 4.9 4.8 3.7 6.0 6.4 5.7 3.1 .2 .6 .7 1.2 2.4 2.5 1.3 3.2 3.7 2.8 1 4 5 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing. Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index on a 1977 = 100 base. Revised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978. Wholesale and retail trade Current dollars 2 3 Construction Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places. Based on unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output pc r hour of allpe rsons Period Business sector Nonfarm business sector Outj ut l Business sector Compensation per hou r 3 Hours of all persems 2 Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Impliei t price defla tor 5 Unit labor CO st Real com pensation per h our 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector 19'f7 = 100; (quarterly c ata seasoitally adjus ted 1969 85.5 86.5 79.0 78.8 92.5 91.1 54.2 54.8 89.6 90.6 63.4 63.4 63.2 63.3 1970 86.2 89.2 78.4 80.7 86.1 91.7 89.9 78.0 80.3 85.8 91.7 89.8 91.0 89.8 89.5 92.3 96.2 96.7 58.2 62.0 66.1 71.3 78.0 58.7 62.5 66.7 71.7 78.5 90.8 92.8 95.7 97.3 95.9 91.5 93.5 96.6 97.8 96.4 67.5 69.5 71.5 75.3 84.4 67.6 69.7 71.7 75.3 84.5 66.0 90.5 93.2 96.8 97.3 69.0 71.3 75.3 82.4 66.3 69.3 71.3 74.0 81.6 1971 1972 1973 1974 92.4 94.7 92.5 86.8 89.7 93.0 95.3 92.9 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 94.5 97.6 100.0 100.6 99.4 94.7 97.8 100.0 100.6 99.1 88.2 93.8 100.0 105.5 107.8 87.8 93.7 100.0 105.7 108.0 93.3 96.0 100.0 104.9 108.5 92.7 95.8 100.0 105.0 109.0 85.5 92.9 100.0 108.6 118.7 86.0 93.0 100.0 108.6 118.4 96.3 98.9 100.0 100.9 99.1 96.8 99.0 100.0 100.9 98.9 90.5 95.1 100.0 108.0 119.5 90.8 95.1 100.0 108.0 119.5 90.4 94.7 100.0 107.5 117.2 90.0 94.6 100.0 107.1 116.5 1980 1981 1982 98.9 101.3 101.2 98.4 100.3 100.2 106.5 109.8 106.7 106.5 109.3 106.3 107.6 108.4 105.4 108.2 109.0 106.0 131.2 143.9 155.1 130.7 143.5 154.7 96.5 95.9 97.4 96.1 95.6 97.1 132.7 142.1 153.3 132.8 143.0 154.4 128.1 140.1 147.7 128.1 140.4 148.6 1981: III IV 102.3 101.2 101.1 99.9 111.2 108.9 110.5 108.2 108.7 107.7 109.4 108.2 145.5 148.2 145.1 147.7 95.6 95.6 95.3 95.4 142.3 146.4 143.5 147.8 141.5 144.3 141.8 145.0 1982: I II Ill IV 101.1 100.7 101.1 101.9 100.0 99.9 100.4 100.8 107.2 106.9 106.6 106.0 106.5 106.7 106.5 105.4 106.0 106.2 105.4 104.0 106.5 106.8 106.0 104.6 151.6 153.9 156.5 158.7 151.3 153.5 156.1 158.3 97.1 97.4 97.1 98.0 96.9 97.1 96.9 97.8 149.9 152.9 154.7 155.6 151.3 153.6 155.4 157.1 145.5 147.5 148.5 149.4 146.4 148.3 149.1 150.5 1983: I II Ill 102.5 103.8 104.7 101.7 103.3 104.1 107.1 110.2 112.6 106.7 110.0 112.6 104.5 106.2 107.6 104.9 106.5 108.2 160.7 162.1 164.2 161.0 162.7 164.4 99.4 99.2 99.4 99.5 99.6 99.4 156.9 156.2 156.9 158.3 157.4 157.9 151.5 152.7 153.6 152.4 153.6 154.6 Peircent chan ge; quarte rly data al seasoiiall y adjusted annual rates 1969 0.2 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 .8 3.6 3.5 2.6 -2.4 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 2.2 3.3 2.4 .6 -1.2 1980 1981 1982 -.5 2.4 -.1 1981: III IV 4.7 -4.1 1982: I II Ill IV -.4 -1.6 1.7 3.3 1983: I II Ill 2.0 5.4 3.5 3.2 7.0 6.5 1.5 1.1 6.7 6.8 4.9 4.7 5 3.0 3.9 .4 -1.3 .4 3.1 4.3 .5 7.3 6.6 6.5 8.0 9.4 7.0 6.6 6.7 7.6 9.4 1.3 2.2 3.1 1.6 -1.4 1.0 2.2 3.3 1.3 -1.4 6.4 2.9 2.9 5.3 12.1 6.6 3.1 2.8 5.0 12.2 4.5 4.4 3.4 5.5 9.5 4.8 4.5 3.0 3.8 10.2 -2.2 6.7 6.7 5.7 2.2 —4.1 3.0 4.1 4.9 3.5 4.1 3.4 4.4 5.0 3.7 9.6 8.6 7.7 8.6 9.4 9.6 8.1 7.5 8.6 9.0 .5 2.6 1.2 .9 -1.7 .4 2.2 . 1.0 .9 -2.0 7.3 5.1 5.1 8.0 10.7 7.5 4.8 5.2 8.0 10.7 9.8 4.7 5.6 7.5 9.0 10.3 5.1 5.7 7.1 8.8 -1.3 3.1 -2.8 1.4 2.7 -2.8 -.8 .7 -2.7 .7 .7 2.7 10.5 9.7 7.7 10.4 9.8 7.8 -2.6 -.6 1.5 -2.8 -.6 1.6 11.1 7.1 7.9 11.1 7.7 7.9 9.2 9.4 5.4 10.0 9.6 5.8 5.2 -7.8 4.3 -8.3 .5 -3.9 .5 -4.0 9.6 7.5 9.6 7.6 -2.2 .3 -2.1 .3 4.7 12.2 5.6 12.6 9.9 8.2 10.0 9.5 2.3 1.3 6.3 -1.0 -1.1 -2.3 -6.2 .8 -.6 -4.1 -6.0 .6 -2.7 -5.4 -6.2 1.2 -2.9 -5.3 9.4 6.4 6.7 5.7 10.0 5.8 7.2 5.8 6.3 1.1 -1.0 3.7 6.8 .5 -.6 3.7 9.8 8.1 5.0 2.3 9.9 6.2 4.7 4.4 3.4 5.5 2.7 2.6 3.7 5.4 2.2 3.7 3.7 6.6 3.1 4.2 12.2 9.0 4.9 13.2 9.8 2.1 6.5 5.3 1.2 6.2 6.5 5.4 3.5 5.3 6.8 4.3 4.2 5.8 7.2 .1 -.5 3.3 -1.8 1.8 3.0 -2.1 1.1 5.5 3.3 2.5 5.3 3.2 2.5 -0.3 .3 3.3 3.7 2.4 -2.5 2.0 3.2 2.2 .6 -1.5 -.7 1.9 — .1 3.8 -4.4 .1 — .4 2.6 2.9 2.9 -.8 3.0 6.6 6.6 -2.0 -1.0 2.9 6.9 6.8 -2.0 -1.6 -2.0 6.4 6.6 5.5 2.3 1 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars. 2 Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed. 4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index. 16 5 !J .5 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose 0.8 percent in November, the same as the revised October increase. The index for November was 15.9 percent above its year earlier level. INDEX, 1967 = 100* (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967 = 100* (RATIO SCALE) 180 ..TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 180 -UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION 160 160 140 140 120 1979 180 160 1981 1980 1982 1983 _MANUFA CTURING F>RODUCTIC >N .*•--""*"- \ r** 1983 ^** NONDtJRABLE *""~***\/ V s /•*«*^~-«. MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE 90 * % -Vx— -' V -\ 140 ^ . A DURABLE ^^"-N^. y \^ 120 |1M1 | 1979 u ml ii 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 11 1980 80 /^ 1 f i l l ll U 1 I 1982 1981 70 r 60 | 1 1 II 1 1 1 1 1 | 1979 1983 1982 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE i 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Seasonally adjusted] Industry prod uction indexes 1967 = 100 To tal indus trial produ ction Period Index, 1967 = 100 1967 proportion 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: Nov Dec 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug r Sept r Oct r Nov" 1 2 Output as percent of capacity. Annual data are averages of the four monthly indexes. Manufa eturing Manufacturing Percent change from year earlier 100.00 129.8 129.3 117.8 130.5 138.2 146.1 152.5 147.0 151.0 138.6 134.9 135.2 137.4 138.1 140.0 142.6 144.4 146.4 149.7 151.8 153.9 155.1 156.3 Capacity u tilization rate , percent * Mining Total 87.95 8.4 -.4 8.9 10.8 5.9 5.7 4.4 -3.6 2.7 -8.2 -7.8 -5.7 -2.3 3.4 -1.2 1.7 3.7 5.6 7.9 9.7 12.1 14.3 15.9 129.8 129.4 116.3 130.3 138.4 146.8 153.6 146.7 150.4 137.6 134.0 134.5 136.7 138.2 140.4 143.1 145.1 147.4 150.6 152.8 155.1 156.3 157.5 Durable 51.98 127.1 125.7 109.3 122.3 130.0 139.7 146.4 136.7 140.5 124.7 119.3 119.9 122.5 123.9 126.3 129.1 131.0 133.2 136.8 138.8 141.5 142.8 144.1 Utilities Nondurable 35. £7 133.8 134.6 126.4 141.8 150.5 156.9 164.0 161.2 164.8 156.2 155.3 155.6 157.4 159.0 160.7 163.3 165.4 167.8 170.6 172.9 174.8 175.9 176.7 6.36 114.7 115.3 112.8 114.2 118.2 124.0 125.5 132.7 142.2 126.1 116.8 118.4 121.9 115.6 112.6 111.6 112.8 112.6 115.0 116.1 116.8 118.7 120.5 5.69 145.4 143.7 146.0 151.7 156.5 161.4 166.0 168.3 169.1 168.7 166.7 164.2 163.1 162.0 165.8 169.3 169.7 169.8 176.0 179.3 179.3 177.9 178.9 Federal Reserve series 87.6 83.7 72.9 79.6 82.2 84.7 86.0 79.6 79.4 71.1 68.8 68.9 70.0 70.6 71.6 72.9 73.8 74.9 76.4 77.3 78.4 78.9 79.4 Commerce series 2 86.0 83.0 77.0 81.0 83.0 84.0 83.0 78.0 76.0 70.0 67.5 69.8 73.3 75.5 Industrial materials (Federal Reserve series) 91.7 87.0 73.3 81.1 82.6 85.6 87.6 80.4 80.7 70.1 67.0 66.6 68.7 70.1 71.5 72.5 73.5 74.4 76.5 77.4 78.7 79.4 80.0 Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis). 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted] Prod ucts Final produc ts Interimediate pro ducts Cc nsumer goo.ds Equipment Materials Period Total 1967 proportion 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: Nov Dec 1983: Jan Peb Mar Apr May June July Aug r Sepf. Oet r Nov" 47.82 124.4 125.1 118.2 127.6 135.9 142.2 147.2 145.3 149.5 141.5 138.3 139.5 140.1 138.9 139.9 142.8 144.5 146.4 149.0 150.7 152.1 153.3 154.2 Total 27.68 131.5 128.9 124.0 137.1 145.3 149.1 150.8 145.4 147.9 142.6 141.3 142.0 143.6 143.4 144.3 147.7 150.4 152.4 154.8 156.3 157.4 158.0 158.3 Durable goods Nondurable goods 7.89 146.2 135.3 121.4 141.9 154.0 159.2 155.8 136.7 140.5 129.2 124.6 125.9 131.6 134.4 136.3 140.5 145.5 149.2 152.9 154.2 157.4 156.7 156.4 Total Business 19.79 20.14 12.63 125.6 126.3 125.1 135.2 141.9 145.1 148.8 148.9 150.9 148.0 147.9 148.4 148.3 147.0 147.5 150.5 152.3 153.6 155.6 157.1 157.5 158.5 159.0 114.5 120.0 110.2 114.6 123.0 132.8 142.2 145.2 151.8 139.8 134.2 136.1 135.3 132.7 133.8 136.2 136.5 138.2 141.0 143.1 144.9 146.9 148.7 134.2 142.4 128.2 135.4 147.8 160.3 171.3 173.2 181.1 157.9 146.4 148.1 146.6 142.7 143.7 146.9 147.7 150.2 153.3 156.6 158.6 161.1 163.2 Defense and space equipment 7.51 81.4 82.4 80.0 79.8 81.3 86.5 93.4 98.2 102.7 109.4 113.6 115.9 116.4 116.1 117.0 118.2 117.6 118.0 120.4 120.2 121.8 123.1 124.3 Total 12.89 137.2 135.3 123.1 137.2 145.1 154.1 160.5 151.9 154.4 143.3 141.8 141.5 143.7 145.3 147.8 150.8 152.2 154.5 158.1 162.2 165.3 165.7 166.7 Construction supplies n • supplies 6.42 6.47 139.8 134.5 116.3 132.6 140.6 151.7 158.0 140.9 141.9 124.3 123.4 123.0 127.0 129.7 133.1 136.4 138.4 142.1 145.8 149.0 151.1 151.9 152.4 134.6 136.0 129.7 141.7 149.5 156.5 163.1 162.8 166.7 162.1 160.1 159.8 160.3 160.9 162.3 165.2 166.0 166.8 170.4 175.3 179.3 179.4 39.29 133.9 132.4 115.5 131.7 138.6 148.3 156.4 147.6 151.6 133.7 128.4 127.8 132.0 134.9 137.6 139.7 141.7 143.7 147.8 149.7 152.3 153.8 155.3 Supplementary group: Energy total 12.23 128.3 125.5 125.5 129.1 132.9 135.4 137.9 137.7 137.4 135.7 133.3 132.2 132.4 131.0 131.9 133.9 133.8 133.6 138.5 139.4 139.0 138.6 139.3 [1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted] 1* iondurable imanufacture s Durable mimufactures Transp<>rtation Primary metals Period Total 1967 proportion 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: Nov Dec 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr. May June July Aug r Sept r Oct r Nov P 6.57 126.7 123.1 96.4 109.7 111.1 119.9 121.3 102.3 107.9 75.3 63.6 63.5 73.1 77.9 81.2 83.1 84.9 84.8 85.5 87.5 90.5 94.7 96.6 Iron and steel 4.21 122.3 119.8 95.8 104.8 103.8 113.2 113.2 92.4 99.8 61.7 47.5 46.6 59.0 64.3 66.9 68.5 69.5 69.7 71.8 75.1 78.2 84.1 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System. 18 Fabricated metal products 5.93 124.7 124.2 109.9 123.9 131.0 141.6 148.5 134.1 136.4 114.8 107.0 107.3 107.6 110.3 113.9 115.3 115.5 118.5 122.7 126.0 127.4 128.4 129.3 Nonelectrical machinery 9.15 133.7 140.1 125.1 134.5 143.6 153.6 163.7 162.8 171.2 149.0 139.6 139.2 138.0 136.2 138.6 143.1 146.1 149.5 154.2 157.3 158.2 158.9 160.8 equipment Electrical machinery Total 8.05 143.1 143.8 116.5 134.8 145.4 159.4 175.0 172.8 178.4 169.3 165.5 165.5 169.5 168.9 173.8 177.2 180.1 182.4 188.3 189.2 195.6 197.9 199.8 9.27 118.3 108.7 97.4 111.1 122.2 132.5 135.4 116.9 116.1 104.9 100.2 103.7 106.3 109.6 110.1 111.4 113.8 116.6 119.7 121.1 124.7 125.5 126.3 Motor vehicles and parts 4.50 148.8 128.2 111.1 142.0 161.1 169.9 159.9 119.0 122.3 109.8 101.7 108.8 113.9 123.0 123.2 125.5 130.4 136.2 142.3 144.3 150.9 150.9 152.2 Lumber and products 1.64 126.0 116.2 107.6 123.2 131.2 136.3 136.9 119.3 119.1 112.6 119.1 121.4 130.0 130.2 128.7 132.1 135.8 137.4 141.3 141.6 142.3 141.0 Apparel products 3.31 117.3 114.3 107.6 125.7 134.2 134.2 134.4 127.0 120.4 Printing and publishing 4.72 118.2 118.2 113.3 122.5 127.6 131.5 136.9 139.6 144.2 144.1 141.7 142.8 141.3 144.0 145.9 145.7 145.2 147.4 152.0 157.8 161.2 162.1 164.0 Chemicals and products 7.74 154.5 159.4 147.2 170.9 185.7 197.4 211.8 207.1 215.6 196.1 192.8 195.9 197.6 202.3 205.7 208.5 211.0 214.7 218.3 220.3 224.2 227.3 Foods 8.75 120.9 124.0 123.4 133.0 138.8 142.7 147.5 149.6 152.1 151.1 152.0 152.8 154.4 153.0 152.0 153.7 155.6 157.7 159.9 159.3 158.2 NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Construction contracts 2 Private Total new construction expenditures Period Resitiential Total Commercial and industrial New housing Total1 Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1977 = 100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) Ilillions of dollars 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 95.1 112.0 135.7 159.7 181.6 175.7 186.1 181.0 46.5 60.5 81.0 93.4 99.0 87.3 86.6 74.8 234.1 243.7 240.2 181.9 190.5 190.8 76.4 81.2 86.0 247.9 243.0 241.9 247.4 254.8 264.3 269.6 r 274.7 276.4 269.5 195.0 194.3 194.9 199.5 206.0 214.7 218.5 221.4 224.0 218.1 89.7 93.6 96.1 102.0 107.5 113.5 118.2 120.2 120.8 117.1 135.9 151.1 173.8 205.6 230.4 230.7 239.4 232.0 34.4 47.3 65.7 75.8 78.6 63.1 62.7 51.9 20.8 19.9 22.5 29.6 39.9 43.8 51.3 54.6 31.5 32.2 36.7 42.7 44.7 48.2 51.5 53.6 55.8 58.6 54.1 54.6 52.6 51.4 54.7 52.2 52.2 53.2 49.4 105 122 131 656 608 595 63.4 68.8 72.3 77.3 82.2 87.9 92.7 94.8 95.0 91.0 53.3 51.0 49.7 46.8 46.3 49.0 48.1 50.5 50.1 47.2 52.0 49.8 49.0 50.7 52.2 52.2 52.2 50.7 53.2 53.7 52.9 48.7 47.0 47.9 48.7 49.6 51.1 r 53.3 52.4 51.4 127 119 131 129 148 151 137 146 143 139 145 803 693 632 652 734 785 741 783 830 856 884 27.8 66.0 40.9 39.1 79.0 100.0 114.0 122.0 107.0 r 110.0 111.0 38.2 45.9 48.8 55.0 53.3 51.1 Annual rates 1982: Get Nov..... Dee 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept r Get" Nov* , 1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. 2 F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971 for floor space. 555 592 739 977 1,059 904 906 685 Annual rates Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New pri\rate homes New private housing units Period Units started, bjf type of structun 3 Total 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1,160.4 1,537.5 1,987.1 2,020.3 1,745.1 1,292.2 1,084.2 1,062.2 1 unit 892.2 1,162.4 1,450.9 1,433.3 1,194.1 852.2 705.4 662.6 2-4 units 5 or more units 64.0 204.3 289.2 414.4 462.0 429.0 330.5 287.7 85.9 121.7 125.0 122.0 109.5 91.1 80.0 319.6 Units authorized 939.2 1,296.2 1,690.0 1,800.5 1,551.8 1,190.6 985.5 1,000.5 Units completed Homes sold 1,317.2 ,377.2 ,657.1 ,867.5 ,870.8 549 646 819 817 709 545 436 412 ,501.6 ,265.7 1,005.5 Vacancy rate Homes for sale at end of period * 3 313 353 402 414 housing units (percent) 2 336 272 251 6.0 5.6 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.3 246 251 5.5 398 Seasonal ly adjusted annu al rates 1982: Nov Dec 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept r. Oet r Nov* 1,361 1,280 1,694 1,784 1,605 1,506 1,807 1,736 1,804 1,904 1,664 1,650 1,756 868 842 1,126 1,103 1,008 1,001 1,183 1,127 1,032 1,135 1,031 1,010 1,065 79 79 100 117 100 117 96 123 135 110 117 93 161 414 359 468 564 497 388 528 486 637 659 516 547 530 1 Seasonally adjusted. * Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable with earlier data. 8 New series beginning March 1979. 1,227 1,326 1,447 1,479 1,467 1,536 1,635 1,761 1,782 1,652 1,506 1,630 1,642 ,053 ,035 ,195 ,138 ,147 ,164 ,353 ,386 1,432 r 1,729 1,470 1,588 NOTE.—Units authorized 1973-77 are for 14,000 places. 545 529 611 593 611 635 665 658 r 594 r 551 610 660 259 262 262 266 273 284 r 289 r 296 299 299 5.7 5.5 5.8 1978 relate to 16,000 permit-issuing places; data for Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturing and trade sales rose 0.5 percent in October and inventories rose $2.6 billion. According to the advance survey, total retail sales rose 1.9 percent in November following an increase of 1.4 percent in October. BILLI ONS OF DOL LARS* (RATKD BULK DNS OF DOL LARS* (RATK5 SCALE) SCALE) 160 150 _ 140 130 >- 600 550 «^ rp=^ ^-"•"l•*V -"- 500 S~~^ ^—^** 450 ~ ^* MANUF/ACTURING A ND TRADE INVENTORIE S 120 110 — ^^r^^- ^X^ ^^m ^^^ *~ r ***^ 400' ^^ 100 S 350 300 — RET AIL INVENTC)RIES \ ^ ^^-^ p,,, ^^ ^+~* ** -^ T- /** +•' 80 MANUF ACTURING ANDTR ADE SALES -'^ Jwf^- 90 - t^ ""'r ,~'+~~'' '+ _ RETAIL SALE S *"' 70 — 250 ~~ ' 60 _ _ 50 200 Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 1979 Illllllllll 1982 1981 1980 1983 RATICD* _ 150 — 1.80 INVENTOF*Y-SALES R.ATIO MANUF ACTURING ANL) TRADE 1.60 \ 1.40 -V^Ar^ij 100 illllllllll Illllllllll I I M l i l l l l ! Illllllllll Illllllllll 1982 1981 1980 1979 ^\sO /I S *^ *^L RETAIL I l l l l l l l l l l M l l l l t l M I Illllllllll Illllllllll 1.20 1983 1979 1980 1 1982 1981 *~X7*-* Illllllllll 1983 'SEASONALLY ADJ USTED COUNCIL OF ECC3NOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTM ENT OF COMMERC E Manufacti iring and tra( e l Sales Period Q 1 2 Inventories 3 Sales 2 Inventories 3 Inventory-s ales ratio 4 Re tail Whol esale Total 2 Durable goods stores Inventories Nondurable goods stores Total 3 Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Manufacturingj andj ,trade i Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally iidjusted 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: Oct Nov Dec 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept r Oct p Nov" 182,230 204,277 229,624 260,307 297,663 327,284 356,099 344,179 288,375 318,544 351,036 398,890 450,736 492,885 526,152 511,942 46,623 50,694 55,987 66,117 78,680 92,658 100,673 95,363 56,697 64,078 72,311 85,685 98,394 112,341 116,986 118,790 49,012 54,781 60,435 67,286 75,047 80,235 87,298 89,640 15,247 18,150 20,724 23,218 25,196 24,401 26,335 26,739 33,765 36,631 39,711 44,067 49,850 55,834 60,963 62,901 71,744 79,273 89,530 102,790 111,229 116,430 126,833 128,250 33,356 37,841 43,135 49,987 53,717 54,400 59,095 59,597 38,388 41,432 46,395 52,803 57,512 62,030 67,738 68,653 336,905 338,722 338,391 519,797 513,888 511,942 91,806 91,912 91,389 120,162 118,349 118,790 90,905 92,492 92,459 27,154 28,721 28,723 63,751 63,771 63,736 128,849 127,619 128,250 60,581 59,417 59,597 68,268 68,202 68,653 345,337 341,490 348,009 351,100 363,925 373,572 372,434 374,434 380,583 382,407 507,550 507,665 503,222 504,796 505,658 505,521 505,826 510,430 513,883 516,465 94,790 92,245 92,943 92,586 97,529 100,479 100,315 100,644 102,791 105,044 117,564 116,417 116,591 117,498 115,855 115,630 115,745 116,813 118,410 120,476 92,308 91,164 93,263 95,449 98,431 99,173 99,521 97,801 r 99,202 r !00,573 102,457 28,307 27,490 29,160 30,668 32,124 32,663 32,539 30,893 r 32,125 *B3,092 34,401 64,001 63,674 64,103 64,781 66,307 66,510 66,982 66,908 67,077 r 67,481 68,056 127,869 130,392 129,327 129,901 131,654 132,501 131,905 133,783 135,452 135,173 59,735 61,517 60,412 60,640 61,401 62,019 61,284 62,313 64,021 63,680 68,134 68,875 68,915 69,261 70,253 70,482 70,621 71,470 71,431 71,493 1 See page 21 for manufacturing. Monthly average for year and total for month. • 3 Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. 2 20 .57 .48 .46 .44 .43 .45 .44 .51 .54 .52 .51 .47 .49 .45 1.44 1.39 1.35 1.36 1.36 1.35 1.35 1.44 1.38 1.40 1.43 1.44 1.42 1.40 1.41 1.42 1.38 1.39 1.39 1.43 1.39 1.36 1.34 1.34 1.33 1.37 1.37 1.34 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In October, manufacturers' shipments fell while inventories and orders rose. In November, according to advance data, durable goods shipments fell and new orders rose. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 360 320 H-INVENTORIES- 280 240 200 160 DURABLE GOODS 120 100 80 NONDURABLE GOODS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 240 ^NEW ORDERS- 200 180 160 TOTAL 140 INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO 120 100 DURABLE GOODS ffgi-^ 80 p*""....,. NONDURABLE GOODS DDS 1981 1980 / *""»> 1983 1983 1982 *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COM Manufa cturers' shipinents 1 M anufaeturers new orders i Manufac3turers' inven tones 2 Durable3 goods Period Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Durable goods Total Nondurable goods Total Total Capital goods industries, Nondurable goods Manufacturers' unfilled orders 3 non- Manufacturers' inventoryshipments ratio 4 defense Millions of do Hars, seasoilally adjust*3d 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 86,595 98,802 113,202 126,905 143,936 154,391 168,129 159,177 43,656 50,689 59,267 67,848 76,060 77,550 83,872 76,843 42,939 48,113 53,935 59,057 67,876 76,841 84,257 82,334 159,934 175,193 189,195 210,415 241,113 264,114 282,333 264,902 102,874 112,581 121,575 137,834 160,554 174,547 186,222 175,200 57,060 62,612 67,620 72,581 80,559 89,567 96,111 89,702 85,149 99,543 115,061 131,616 147,466 156,142 167,924 157,371 42,019 51,398 61,111 72,409 79,513 79,341 83,725 75,103 11,011 12,799 15,291 19,458 23,231 23,259 24,059 20,687 43,130 48,145 53,950 59,207 67,953 76,801 84,199 82,268 173,829 182,499 205,675 262,671 305,453 325,908 323,346 300,971 1982: Oct Nov Dec 154,194 154,318 154,543 72,478 73,005 73,495 81,716 81,313 81,048 270,786 267,920 264,902 179,675 177,061 175,200 91,111 90,859 89,702 152,362 152,604 157,382 70,735 71,067 76,180 20,127 19,983 19,679 81,627 81,537 81,202 299,846 298,132 300,971 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept r Oet p Nov p 158,239 158,081 161,803 163,065 167,965 173,920 172,598 175,989 178,590 176,790 77,744 77,769 79,595 80,241 82,669 86,582 85,646 87,918 88,970 r 88,228 92,478 80,495 80,312 82,208 82,824 85,296 87,338 86,952 88,071 89,620 88,562 262,117 260,856 257,304 257,397 258,149 257,390 258,176 259,834 260,021 260,816 172,506 171,572 169,377 169,814 170,734 169,840 169,693 170,576 170,385 170,628 89,611 89,284 87,927 87,583 87,415 87,550 88,483 89,258 89,636 90,188 162,871 157,757 162,587 166,025 169,874 178,489 175,455 178,302 180,961 181,802 82,355 77,449 79,951 83,101 84,456 90,905 88,234 89,978 90,996 r 93,366 97,080 20,507 19,175 20,032 22,592 22,228 24,289 21,580 23,028 25,213 r 26,003 24,854 80,516 80,308 82,636 82,924 85,418 87,584 87,221 88,324 89,965 88,436 305,599 305,268 306,053 309,015 310,922 315,488 318,348 320,664 323,032 328,041 1 2 3 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales. Book value, end of period. End of period. 1.84 1.69 1.61 1.57 1.57 1.66 1.64 1.73 1.76 1.74 1.71 1.66 1.65 1.59 1.58 1.54 1.48 1.50 1.48 1.46 1.48 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In November, the producer price index for all finished goods fell 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished consumer foods fell 1.0 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0.1 percent. Prices of capital equipment were unchanged. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 320 INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 320 I — FINISHED GOODS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 300 300 280 TOTAL FINISHED GOODS- 260 240 260 240 CONSUMER FOODS \ 220 -CAPITAL EQUIPMENT-—^ 220 200 CONSUMER GOODS EXCLUDING FOODS 180 180 160 160 140 140 120 120 1975 1976 1977 1979 1978 1980 1982 1981 1933 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Fin shed goods Period Total finished goods 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: Nov Dec 1983: Jan Feb. Mar Apr May June July r. Aug Sept Get Nov 1 163.4 170.6 181.7 195.9 217.7 247.0 269.8 280.7 285.5 286.4 283.3 283.8 283.0 283.0 283.7 285.1 285.3 286.4 286.9 287.8 287.3 Consumer foods 181.0 180.4 189.9 207.2 226.2 239.5 253.6 259.3 258.2 258.8 258.3 260.9 261.4 264.2 262.9 261.4 259.5 260.7 262.4 265.3 262.7 22 Onide materials Foods and feeds 1 Foodstuffs and feedstuffs Finished go()ds excluding consumer foo<Is Total Consumer gc)ods finished Total 163.6 180.0 189.1 201.5 215.6 242.2 280.3 306.0 310.4 311.7 311.8 310.1 309.8 308.6 307.2 308.6 311.1 312.0 314.0 316.1 317.0 317.4 Total 156.2 166.1 177.7 190.7 213.3 247.8 273.3 285.8 292.5 293.5 289.5 289.2 288.1 287.1 288.4 290.8 291.8 292.9 293.0 293.1 293.4 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. Intenr ediate ma terials Total Durable 153.1 138.2 144.5 162.6 174.3 186.7 211.5 250.8 276.5 287.8 295.8 296.7 290.8 290.0 288.0 286.7 288.3 291.4 292.5 293.2 293.7 293.6 293.9 152.8 166.9 183.2 206.2 218.6 226.7 229.8 230.4 229.6 232.2 232.6 232.4 232.9 234.0 234.1 234.7 233.8 232.8 233.9 Nondurable 163.0 174.8 189.3 200.0 231.3 283.9 319.6 333.6 345.3 346.4 337.3 333.7 329.7 327.4 330.0 334.7 336.7 337.4 338.9 339.6 339.3 Capital equipment 162.5 173.4 184.6 199.2 216.5 239.8 264.3 279.4 283.1 284.4 283.9 285.0 285.8 285.6 286.2 287.0 287.5 289.6 288.8 289.6 289.6 169.7 180.7 194.9 217.9 248.9 271.3 281.0 286.2 287.0 283.1 283.4 282.2 282.3 282.9 284.5 284.7 285.5 286.4 287.3 286.6 195.3 185.3 190.5 203.1 226.1 252.6 250.3 239.4 233.7 234.0 236.0 239.4 239.8 246.3 245.3 243.2 242.4 250.5 260.9 258.0 256.2 Other Total 178.6 189.4 202.3 216.5 244.4 282.3 310.1 315.7 317.4 317.5 315.6 315.0 313.7 311.9 313.3 316.2 317.2 318.8 320.3 321.5 322.0 196.9 202.7 209.2 234.4 274.3 304.6 329.0 319.5 317.3 316.6 315.8 316.8 318.9 323.9 324.1 323.6 319.7 326.5 328.0 327.2 328.3 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 191.8 190.2 192.1 216.2 247.9 259.2 257.4 247.8 239.4 240.3 243.0 248.8 250.5 258.0 255.0 251.0 244.4 254.2 254.6 255.2 255.1 Other 206.9 228.5 245.0 272.3 330.0 401.0 482.3 473.9 484.8 480.6 472.6 463.3 466.4 466.5 472.9 479.9 481.9 482.3 486.1 482.3 485.9 CONSUMER PRICES In November, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.3 percent seasonally adjusted (0.2 percent not seasonally adjusted). The index was 3.2 percent above its level in November 1982. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE} 320 1320 300 300 280 280 260 260 240 240 220 220 /ALL ALL IT ITEMS 200 200 180 180 160 160 140 120 120 1977 1976 1975 1979 1978 1980 1981 1982 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967 = 100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Ti•ansportati an Hou sing She Iter Period All items * Food Total l Total Renters' costs 2 NSA Rel. imp.5 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: Nov Dee 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept. Oct Nov 100.0 161.2 170.5 181.5 195.4 217.4 246.8 272.4 289.1 293.6 292.4 293.1 293.2 293.4 295.5 297.1 298.1 299.3 300.3 301.8 302.6 303.1 19.0 175.4 180.8 192.2 211.4 234.5 254.6 274.6 285.7 288.2 288.1 288.3 288.3 290.1 291.3 292.2 291.3 291.0 291.6 292.5 293.9 294.3 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 December 1982=100. 3 Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol 4 37.7 164.5 174.6 186.5 202.8 227.6 263.3 293.5 314.7 319.9 317.4 318.9 318.9 318.7 320.4 321.5 322.1 323.4 324.2 325.8 326.6 328.1 21.3 169.7 179.0 191.1 210.4 239.7 281.7 314.7 337.0 340.7 336.0 338.3 339.1 339.2 341.6 342.7 343.6 345.3 346.6 348.4 349.8 351.2 Homeowners' costs 2 Mainte- NSA NSA 6.9 13.9 100.2 100.8 101.1 101.3 101.7 102.2 102.5 103.1 103.6 104.3 104.7 105.1 100.0 100.7 100.9 100.9 101.7 102.0 102.2 102.7 103.0 103.5 103.9 104.3 repairs 0.5 187.6 199.6 214.7 233.0 256.4 285.7 314.4 334.1 339.0 337.8 342.9 339.4 339.9 343.6 344.3 345.1 346.1 347.9 346.6 351.1 353.4 beginning September 1981. Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant, etc. 5 Relative importance, December 1982. Fuel and other utilities nance and 8.4 167.8 182.7 202.2 216.0 239.3 278.6 319.2 350.8 367.1 369.6 368.9 366.9 365.1 365.8 368.8 368.9 370.1 371.1 373.6 373.1 375.9 Apparel and upkeep Total1 New cars Motor fuel 3 5.2 142.3 147.6 154.2 159.6 166.6 178.4 186.9 191.8 193.2 192.7 193.2 194.2 194.1 194.5 195.8 196.5 197.7 198.4 198.4 198.4 198.5 21.8 150.6 165.5 177.2 185.5 212.0 249.7 280.0 291.5 296.0 295.8 293.9 289.1 289.0 292.1 295.8 297.1 298.6 301.6 304.1 305.9 306.4 3.5 127.6 135.7 142.9 153.8 166.0 179.3 190.2 197.6 198.7 199.3 199.4 201.1 202.6 201.3 200.6 200.8 200.8 202.5 204.5 205.9 206.0 6.2 170.8 177.9 188.2 196.3 265.6 369.1 410.9 389.4 394.2 391.2 378.3 353.0 349.5 363.2 378.1 380.9 382.5 387.1 388.9 387.1 384.1 Medical care 6.0 168.6 184.7 202.4 219.4 239.7 265.9 294.5 328.7 341.8 344.4 347.2 350.1 351.7 353.3 354.8 356.4 358.4 360.3 361.7 363.0 364.4 Ener- .gy 4 12.4 176.6 189.3 207.3 220.4 275.9 361.1 410.0 416.1 430.2 431.3 6 420.5 404.9 401.3 409.3 419.5 420.9 422.3 425.4 428.2 426.6 426.6 All items less food, energy, and shelter 47.3 149.4 159.9 169.5 179.1 191.5 208.3 228.1 245.6 250.7 251.9 253.1 254.2 254.9 255.5 256.1 257.0 258.5 259.7 260.9 262.4 263.5 6 Energy excludes motor oil, coolant, etc. beginning January 1983. NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers. Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Period Change from pi eceding per od Change from 3 month s earlier, ann ml rate Change from 6 month s earlier, ann ial rate Consumt r goods Consume r goods Consunw;r goods Total finished goods Excluding foods Foods Total Capital equipment finished Excluding foods Foods goods " Capital equipment * Total finished Excluding foods Foods goods Capital equipment Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Chtinge, Dec. to Dec., N SA 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 . 18.3 13.0 20.5 6.6 3.7 6.9 9.2 5.5 6.7 6.0 6.7 8.5 -2.5 6.9 11.7 7.4 7.5 1.4 2.1 12.8 11.8 7.1 3.7 15.3 10.8 22.6 8.2 6.4 7.3 7.9 8.8 4.4 6.5 7.8 17.5 14.2 11.4 11.1 13.5 8.5 4.2 9.2 3.9 9.2 4.0 0 lange, morith to mon th 0.6 .3 0 .2 0.9 .3 0.4 .5 — 1.1 -.2 1.0 .2 1.1 -.5 -.6 2.0 -.3 .2 .4 .3 -.1 .2 .3 .2 .7 -.3 .3 0 1982: Nov Dec 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov .2 -.3 0 .2 .5 .1 .4 .2 .3 -.2 Y -.5 .6 1.1 .4 .2 .2 -.0 .1 __.7 r .5 .7 1.1 -1.0 -1.8 4.3 5.2 8.1 7.8 .8 .7 -2.4 -4.7 — .4 .1 3.0 3.3 3.9 2.5 3.6 1.3 r .2 4.2 4.1 9.5 3.1 0 2.7 2.7 2.0 2.4 1.7 1.7 -3.2 -7.6 -11.2 -5.5 -2.3 4.8 8.3 7.0 3.2 1.5 1.0 -6.9 -3.3 1.5 r 9.2 3.1 6.2 4.7 1.1 3.6 r 2.7 r 4.8 2.5 3.0 0 -3.1 11.0 3.9 -3.5 8.7 3.5 7 1.6 1.2 2.4 4.7 3.7 2.0 r .9 -.2 .8 .8 -.2 — .1 -2.2 —4.4 -5.0 -3.5 2.4 1.9 2.8 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.5 .9 .1 -.6 -1.3 -.9 1.4 1.8 2.8 3.4 2.6 1.2 2.2 4.0 4.9 3.9 r 2.6 3.3 2.1 2.8 2.4 3.7 3.7 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 .7 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES [Percent change from preceding period; montbJy data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Tninsportati on Hoiising Period All items l Food Total 1 Total 1 Renters' costs Addendurn: All items, percent chan ge (annual nite) All Sh elter Homeowners' costs NSA Maintenance and Apparel and upkeep Fuel and other utilities Total » New cars Motor fuel 2 Medical care Energy 3 items less food, energy, and shelter From 3 months earlier From 6 months earlier From year earlier NSA NSA Changre, Decem ber to I)ecembe r.NSA 1974 12.2 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 7.0 4.8 6.8 9.0 12.2 6.5 .6 8.0 13.3 12.4 11.8 10.2 10.2 8.9 3.9 4.3 3.1 13.4 7.5 5.4 7.6 11.4 7.3 4.2 8.7 5.5 7.1 7.2 9.9 11.5 17.4 15.1 10.1 10.3 10.6 9.9 2.4 9.2 4.2 15.2 13.7 10.2 3.6 16.2 8.7 2.3 4.5 4.2 3.2 5.5 6.8 3.6 1.6 16.6 11.2 9.0 8.1 5.9 16.0 13.6 14.5 9.7 13.3 11.5 9.8 8.8 4.3 7.7 7.3 4.8 7.2 6.2 7.4 7.5 6.8 1.6 18.2 14.7 11.0 1.7 20.6 11.0 2.6 4.9 8.5 52.2 18.9 9.4 -6.5 21.6 11.6 12.4 9.9 10.1 11.3 11.0 9.1 5.8 6.5 7.7 10.1 10.0 12.5 11.0 37.4 18.1 11.9 1.3 6.4 7.0 5.2 6.5 7.2 9.9 9.4 6.1 0.9 .8 0.8 .3 0.2 .5 -2.5 -3.7 .5 .4 .3 .2 .2 .4 .6 .5 .5 .6 .4 6.9 7.2 8.0 8.8 8.8 11.3 13.5 10.4 6.1 Change, month t o month 1982: Nov Dec.. 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov 0 -.3 0.0 -.0 .2 -.2 .1 .6 .5 .2 .4 .4 .5 .4 .3 .1 0 .6 .4 .3 -.3 -.1 .2 .3 .5 .1 -0.2 -.8 .5 0 — .1 .5 .3 .2 .4 .2 .5 .2 .5 -0.6 -1.4 .7 .2 .0 .7 .3 .3 .5 .4 .5 .4 .4 1 2 -0.1 -.4 0.6 .3 .2 .4 .5 .3 .6 .& .7 .4 .4 0.7 .2 .0 .8 .3 .2 .5 .3 .5 .4 .4 1.5 -1.0 .1 1.1 .2 .2 .3 .5 — .4 1.3 .7 1.2 .7 -0.1 -.2 -.5 -.5 .2 .8 .0 .3 .3 .7 — .1 .8 Includes items not shown separately. Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981. 3 Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant, etc. 4 Energy excludes motor oil, coolant, etc. beginning January 1983. NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. 24 -0.1 -.3 .3 .5 — .1 .2 .7 .4 .6 .4 0 0 .1 -j -.6 -1.6 -.0 1.1 1.3 .4 .5 1.0 .8 .6 .2 -0.3 .3 .1 .9 .7 -.6 -.3 .1 0 .8 1.0 .7 .0 -0.3 -.8 -3.3 -6.7 -1.0 3.9 4.1 .7 .4 1.2 .5 — .5 -.8 .8 .8 .5 .5 .4 .5 .6 .5 .4 .4 .4 4 -.9 2.0 2.5 .3 .3 .7 .7 — .4 0 2.1 .5 5.1 2.3 4.6 3.9 -.4 1.4 .4 .5 3.8 3.5 3.6 3.9 3.5 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.9 2.9 3.2 -1.2 .4 2.1 5.1 5.4 4.7 4.2 5.3 5.5 4.9 .8 1.9 2.9 3.4 4.7 5.4 5.1 4.6 Data beginning January 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers. Data beginning January 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers rose 0.7 percent in November and prices paid by farmers rose 0.6 percent in the month ended November 15. INDEX, 1977=100 INDEX, 1977=100 (RATIO SCALE) (RATIO SCALE) 60 I II II I I I I I II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I l I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I l I I I I I M I i I 60 1983 J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1977 = 100] Frices Pri 3es received by farm ers Period 1975 All farm products Livestock and products Crops 156 139 139 156 156 154 153 148 148 82 81 142 146 146 145 144 141 137 139 137 135 135 157 158 159 159 160 160 160 160 161 161 162 156 157 157 158 159 159 158 159 159 158 159 150 151 152 153 154 154 152 153 154 153 154 82 84 84 86 86 84 82 87 84 83 83 98 101 100 124 147 144 143 145 1982: Nov Dec 128 127 117 114 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov 128 132 134 136 137 134 131 114 1 Includes items not shown separately. Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. Ratio 2 100 109 125 139 151 154 105 102 100 105 116 125 134 121 2 Production items 113 107 100 106 107 97 93 86 101 102 100 115 132 134 139 133 139 136 134 135 paid by farmer s Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates 91 97 100 108 125 138 148 149 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 118 121 127 129 126 125 139 134 137 136 All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates * 89 95 100 108 123 138 150 89 95 NOTE. — The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1977 = 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS Growth in M3 accelerated in November, while growth in the narrower aggregates slowed a little. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS'(RATIO SCALE) 2,600 2,400 2,200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 2,000 M3 1,800 1,800 1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400 M2 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 600 400 400 I I I I I I I I II 200 1975 1977 1976 1980 1979 1978 I I III 1981 200 1982 1983 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE, SYSTEM [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period 1975: 1976: 1977: 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: 1982: 1982: Dec..... Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Nov Dec 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov'1 1 Ml M2 M3 L Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCD) ! Ml plus overnight RPs and Eurodollars, MMMF balances (general purpose and broker/dealer), MMDAs, and savings and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, term RPs, and institution-only MMMV balances M3 plus other liquid assets 291.1 310.4 335.5 363.2 389.0 414.1 440.6 478.2 474.0 478.2 482.1 491.1 497.6 496.5 507.4 511.7 515.5 516.7 517.1 517.9 518.2 1,023.0 1,163.5 1,286.4 1,388.5 1,497.5 1,630.3 1,794.9 1,959.5 1,945.0 1,959.5 2,010.0 2,050.8 2,069.9 2,074.8 2,096.2 2,114.4 2,126.3 2,136.9 r 2, 145.4 r 2,162.0 2,176.2 Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions. Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at an annual rate. 2 26 1,161.7 1,296.3 1,451.8 1,613.5 1,758.4 1,936.7 2,167.9 2,377.6 2,370.2 2,377.6 2,403.3 r 2,430.7 2,447.1 2,453.9 2,476.2 2,498.8 r 2,510.3 2,528.3 r 2,543.9 r 2,562.0 2,588.9 Percent cjhange from year or 6 m onths earlier 2 1,371.9 1,522.4 1,711.0 1,922.9 2,131.8 2,343.6 2,622.0 r 2,896.7 r 2,882.5 r 2,896.7 2,930.6 2,960.2 r 2,987.5 r 3,005.8 r 3,031.3 r 3,058.6 3,087.8 NOTE.—See page 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. M2 Ml 4.9 6.6 8.1 8.3 7.1 6.5 6.4 8.5 9.8 11.2 12.6 14.8 15.4 12.2 14.6 14.5 14.3 10.7 8.0 8.8 4.3 12.6 13.7 10.6 7.9 M3 9.4 11.6 12.0 11.1 7.9 8.9 10.1 9.2 10.1 11.9 10.5 10.5 14.2 16.1 16.6 15.6 16.2 16.4 11.9 8.6 7.4 r 8.6 7.8 11.9 10.7 10.8 10.0 9.9 8.9 9.1 10.5 9.1 8.2 r 8.1 r 9.0 9.3 9.0 9.7 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] DePeriod Currency mand deposits * Overnight repurchase agreements (RPs), net, plus overnight Eurodollars Other checkable deposits (OCD) NSA Dec: 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: Nov Dec.. 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov '..... Money market mutua 1 fund bala nces Gener- al purpose and broker/ dealer Institution only NSA NSA 2.7 2.4 2.4 6.4 33.4 61.4 150.9 182.2 0.4 .6 .9 3.1 9.5 14.9 36.0 47.6 Money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) Small Savings deposits denomination time deposits 2 Large denomination time deposits 2 NSA Term repurchase agreements (RPs) Term Eurodollars (net) NSA NSA 43.2 388.8 453.0 491.6 481.2 423.1 400.7 344.4 359.3 391.0 446.0 521.8 635.9 731.7 828.6 859.1 194.9 222.2 258.9 302.6 333.8 19.5 27.1 30.1 34.8 37.2 40.3 88.6 97.5 106.3 116.2 123.2 132.8 253.8 262.0 266.8 236.4 239.8 17.0 26.9 76.6 101.3 5.8 10.6 14.7 20.3 21.2 28.4 36.1 44.3 131.9 132.8 237.6 239.8 100.1 101.3 45.2 44.3 191.1 182J 49.9 47.6 43.2 366.4 359.3 874.9 859.1 340.4 333.8 39.4 40.3 134.2 135.6 137.0 138.0 139.3 140.3 140.9 141.8 143.0 144.2 145.3 239.4 238.7 240.1 238.9 242.5 244.0 245.8 244.5 243.4 242.9 241.6 104.5 112.5 116.0 115.0 120.9 122.7 124.2 125.8 126.0 126.0 126.5 47.3 48.9 48.8 50.6 55.1 56.0 52.7 52.1 r 53.0 r 56.7 55.7 166.7 159.6 154.0 146.7 141.1 139.7 r 138.8 r 139.1 r 137.6 137.8 138.7 46.1 45.2 43.5 41.0 40.4 39.2 38.6 38.4 39.1 39.9 40.6 189.1 277.7 320.5 341.2 356.8 367.3 368.4 366.3 366.9 367.4 369.1 335.1 325.7 322.7 321.5 323.1 325.0 323.5 322.1 320.6 318.8 316.4 797.4 310.7 755.1 297.9 733.8 296.2 725.7 300.2 720.1 299.2 722.1 304.1 735.1 305.6 748.0 311.6 757.7 r317.7 771.0 r319.9 785.7 325.4 40.6 40.8 41.7 42.7 45.3 44.5 42.8 44.8 r 45.1 r 43.9 49.4 73.9 80.6 0.9 2.7 4.2 8.4 214.1 224.4 239.7 r r 1 Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions. 2 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. 338.1 129.9 118.2 145.2 Shortterm Treasury securities Bankers' acceptances 67.2 71.7 76.4 80.2 79.5 72.3 67.7 67.9 76.8 80.8 89.7 99.3 128.7 156.9 176.3 217.6 8.4 8.8 11.8 21.6 26.7 31.6 40.6 44.9 51.7 62.9 79.2 97.0 98.1 104.2 108.8 r 79.6 80.0 67.8 67.9 214.5 217.6 43.1 44.9 107.3 108.8 81.1 83.5 85.9 r 88.4 r 89.9 r 89.8 89.6 68.1 68.5 68.8 69.2 69.6 69.8 70.0 219.3 219.3 224.5 230.5 231.4 237.2 252.1 45.3 43.2 42.0 41.2 40.8 40.2 41.4 113.5 115.1 119.2 122.5 123.4 122.9 124.4 8.4 9.7 14.2 13.1 18.4 29.0 41.5 48.0 65.3 r 80.0 r r ov Sav- bonds r m~ paper 48.0 Travelers checks are a component of money stock but are not shown here. NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. NOTE.—See p. 26 for overall measures. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Installrnent credit e>ctended Installnrlent credit liq uidated Net change in aml ount Amount ou tstanding, en i of period, sea sonally adjus ted outstanding Period 1975 1976.* 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: Oct Nov Dec 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Total 2 Automobile 180,083 52,420 63,743 210,740 257,600 297,668 324,777 306,076 334,508 344,901 28,650 31,691 30,777 75,641 87,981 93,901 83,454 93,240 95,997 8,041 10,177 9,716 Revolving Total 2 Automobile 36,956 43,934 87,596 105,125 120,174 128,068 139,829 150,061 12,614 12,778 12,491 172,675 189,179 49,444 222,138 254,589 286,396 304,628 316,291 331,805 28,781 29,676 28,359 53,278 60,437 69,245 79,186 82,977 84,745 91,099 8,111 8,643 8,225 1 Through 1982 calculated as the difference between credit extensions and credit liquidations. Beginning 1983, calculated as change in amount outstanding. 2 Includes "mobile home" and "other," not shown separately. Revolving 35,616 41,764 81,348 96,090 111,546 126,653 135,362 145,696 12,533 12,739 11,990 Total 2 Automobile ^,408 21,561 35,462 43,079 38,381 1,448 18,217 13,096 -131 2,015 2,418 2,725 735 2,582 2,271 2,696 4,406 4,840 3,388 2,375 4,885 2,976 10,465 15,204 18,736 14,715 477 8,495 4,898 -70 1,534 1,491 625 -233 1,221 689 1,313 1,973 2,421 2,521 285 1,772 Revolving 1,340 2,170 6,248 9,035 8,628 1,415 4,467 4,365 81 39 501 68 -135 1,177 917 514 1,210 821 313 479 1,145 Total 2 Automobile 169,387 57,279 67,798 82,890 101,863 116,523 116,808 125,323 130,235 127,694 128,824 130,235 130,860 130,627 131,848 132,537 133,850 135,823 138,244 140,765 141,050 142,822 190,725 226,646 269,392 307,115 308,137 326,274 339,316 335,593 336,897 339,316 342,041 342,776 345,358 347,629 350,325 354,731 359,571 362,959 365,334 370,219 Revolving 14,467 16,505 36,427 45,004 53,174 54,650 58,722 62,830 62,302 62,326 62,830 62,898 62,763 63,940 64,857 65,371 66,581 67,402 67,715 68,194 69,339 Note.—Extensions and liquidations not available after December 1982. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 27 BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES Commercial and industrial loans rose again in November. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 1,800 1,600 -ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 1,400 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 600 LOANS AND LEASES 400 400 INVESTMENT IN OTHER SECURITIES 200 200 160 160 120 120 80 80 INVESTMENT IN U.S. TREASURY SECURITIES 111 40 mil UNI I l l l l l l l l l l Mill 1975 1977 1976 nn IIIH I l l l l l l l i l l 1981 1982 1980 1979 1978 I l l l 40 1983 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AVERAGES OF WEDNESDAY FIGURES COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Al commercial ban b 1 Loans and leases Period Total loans and investments Total 1975: 1976: 1977: 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: 1982: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 804.6 891.5 1,013.5 1,135.9 1,239.6 1,316.3 1,412.0 1982: Nov Dec. 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct r Nov" 1 2 3 2 R eserves adjust 3d U.S. Treasury securities Other securities Total 915.1 973.9 1,042.0 245.9 291.2 326.8 358.0 392.3 148.8 159.3 172.8 191.5 214.4 231.4 239.2 26.38 26.80 28.00 29.44 30.71 32.46 33.75 36.23 1,398.5 1,412.0 1,036.4 1,042.0 392.0 392.3 126.4 130.9 235.8 239.2 ,428.2 ,436.3 ,450.1 ,460.6 ,474.4 ,488.0 ,499.9 ,513.2 ,520.3 ,532.9 1,548.6 1,045.0 1,048.7 1,056.3 1,059.5 1,063.3 1,070.6 1,080.9 1,091.0 1,096.3 1,104.1 1,115.6 395.1 394.9 396.2 392.9 392.9 395.0 399.2 402.5 402.6 404.7 407.8 139.8 144.5 151.0 157.8 166.1 171.2 172.9 174.4 176.9 182.3 186.2 243.3 243.1 242.8 243.4 245.0 246.2 246.1 247.8 247.1 246.5 246.8 517.4 555.0 632.5 747.0 849.9 189.6 190.9 210.9 145.6 Nonborrowed 26.25 26.74 3 Bom) wings (millions of dollars, unad usted) for changes iii res erve requirem ents Investinents 82.2 100.8 99.8 93.8 94.5 110.0 111.0 130.9 745.2 Data are averages of Wednesday figures. Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. Data are averages of daily figures. 28 Commercial and industrial loans Depos itory institutions Required 26.11 Total 127 62 Seasonal 13 12 54 134 27.43 28.57 29.24 30.77 33.11 35.60 26.52 27.81 29.21 30.38 31.94 33.43 35.73 558 874 1,473 1,617 636 697 35.83 36.23 35.21 35.60 35.43 35.73 579 697 47 33 35.63 36.10 36.80 37.15 37.13 37.61 37.80 37.69 37.72 37.62 37.41 35.10 35.52 36.01 36.14 36.18 35.98 36.35 36.15 36.28 36.78 36.50 35.09 35.66 36.37 36.68 36.68 37,13 37.29 37.25 37.22 37.12 36.88 500 557 852 993 902 1,714 1,382 1,573 1,441 837 913 33 39 53 82 98 121 172 198 191 142 119 82 116 53 33 NOTE.—Beginning Dec. 1981, bank loans and investments and reserves aggregates have been •educed because of shifts from U.S. banking offices to International Banking Facilities (IBFs). Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Uses Sources External Period Total Internal l Ci edit market funds Total Total 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: I n m IV 1983: I rr np m. Securities and mortgages Loans and short-term paper 36.0 43.6 Increase in financial assets Discrepancy (sources less uses) -8.0 16.3 36.6 47.7 67.3 38.5 69.7 38.9 191.9 190.1 150.9 201.8 237.6 293.6 346.7 320.1 324.3 250.9 121.5 137.9 109.7 148.3 175.1 201.6 219.4 221.2 261.6 231.2 53.5 62.5 92.0 127.3 98.9 62.7 19.7 0.5 .0 6.0 9.0 16.5 23.8 -1.0 13.1 41.6 57.7 24.8 38.6 39.6 77.8 78.0 51.3 49.4 -23.2 -33.4 -.2 5.6 -24.4 232.1 279.3 270.4 222.0 242.4 242.2 240.1 200.2 -10.3 37.1 30.3 21.8 70.8 50.5 56.9 52.5 64.7 84.0 33.4 4.5 -6.9 46.7 3.5 48.8 16.4 276.2 338.7 338.4 202.4 252.9 281.5 73.8 85.8 56.9 47.2 57.6 49.3 85.6 119.7 134.2 157.4 175.7 188.8 189.5 230.6 240.5 100.7 104.4 37.2 76.6 96.7 141.8 156.9 143.7 135.2 68.1 56.7 69.9 30.7 20.7 26.3 38.7 54.5 72.4 80.5 88.2 90.9 92.2 84.1 38.2 35.8 32.8 20.9 52.4 22.5 45.2 302.8 329.9 327.4 274.5 233.5 240.2 244.0 244.3 69.3 89.7 83.4 30.2 102.8 89.9 89.0 54.6 323.4 396.3 387.7 250.7 270.3 291.1 72.7 126.0 96.6 69.2 77.1 80.1 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained abr °?f . . .. .... . . ,, ... , . . • , TT0 2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. Other 2 Capital expenditures 3 44.0 34.5 6.5 22.1 24.3 61.3 68.8 52.8 43.0 -16.0 192.4 190.1 156.9 210.8 254.1 317.5 345.7 333.2 365.8 308.6 91.7 Total 70.5 52.2 41.2 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars, except as noted] Current liabilitie s Current assets End of period Total SIC series: 2 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 Cash U.S. Government securities Notes and accounts receivable Other current assets Inventories Total Notes and accounts payable Other current liabilities Net working capital Current ratio * 492.3 529.6 599.3 697.8 790.7 50.2 53.3 59.0 66.3 71.1 7.7 11.0 10.6 12.8 12.3 206.1 221.1 248.2 288.5 322.1 193.3 200.4 225.7 263.9 313.6 35.0 43.8 55.8 66.4 71.7 304.9 326.0 375.6 450.9 530.4 211.3 220.5 282.9 340.3 402.3 93.6 105.5 92.7 110.7 128.1 187.4 203.6 223.7 246.9 260.3 1.615 1.625 1.595 1.548 1.491 735.4 759.0 827.4 912.7 1,043.7 1,214.8 1,327.0 1,419.3 1,425.4 73.2 82.1 88.2 97.2 105.5 118.0 126.9 131.8 144.0 11.1 19.0 23.5 18.2 17.2 16.7 18.7 17.4 22.4 265.8 272.1 292.9 330.3 388.0 459.0 506.8 530.3 511.0 319.5 315.9 342.5 376.9 431.8 505.1 542.8 585.1 575.2 65.9 69.9 80.3 90.1 101.1 116.0 131.8 154.6 172.6 453.4 451.6 495.1 557.1 669.5 807.3 889.3 976.3 977.8 269.8 264.2 282.1 317.6 383.0 460.8 513.6 558.8 552.8 183.6 187.4 213.0 239.6 286.5 346.5 375.7 417.5 425.0 282.0 307.4 332.4 355.5 374.3 407.5 437.8 442.9 447.6 1.622 1.681 1.671 1.638 1.559 1.505 1.492 1.454 1.458 1982: I II Ill IV 1,418.0 1,417.2 1,441.8 1,425.4 121.8 124.1 126.9 144.0 16.5 16.5 18.9 22.4 533.4 531.2 534.2 511.0 591.6 587.6 596.5 575.2 154.7 157.9 165.3 172.6 987.0 988.7 1,007.6 977.8 552.9 554.9 562.7 552.8 434.0 433.8 444.9 425.0 431.0 428.5 434.2 447.6 1.437 1.433 1.431 1.458 1983: I II" 1,436.5 1,464.2 139.7 145.7 25.8 27.5 517.9 534.3 573.2 570.5 179.9 186.2 986.3 997.7 543.2 551.6 443.1 446.1 450.2 466.5 1.456 1.468 FTC-FRB series:3 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1 2 3 Total current assets divided by total current liabilities. Based on data from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury. Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations, Federal Trade Commission and Department of Commerce. NOTE.—SEC series not available after 1974. See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce, Federal Trade Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates rose in December. PERCENT PER ANNUM 16 1982 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] U.S. T reasury security yields Period 3-month bills l Constant nlaturities 2 3-year 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 10-year High-grade municipal bonds (Standard3 & Poor's) Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) Prime commercial paper, 4 6 months 4 Discount rate (N.Y. F.E. Bank)5 5.265 7.221 10.041 11.506 14.077 10.686 6.69 8.29 9.72 11.55 14.44 12.92 7.42 8.41 9.44 11.46 13.91 13.00 8.51 11.23 11.57 9.63 11.94 14.17 13.79 5.61 7.99 10.91 12.29 14.76 11.89 8.013 7.810 8.130 8.304 8.252 8.19 8.82 9.12 9.39 9.05 8.71 8.71 8.96 9.88 9.64 9.91 9.84 9.76 9.66 10.32 10.90 11.30 11.07 10.87 10.96 11.13 10.54 10.46 10.72 10.51 10.40 10.38 10.85 11.38 11.85 11.65 11.54 11.69 11.83 9.91 9.45 9.48 9.16 8.96 9.03 9.51 9.46 9.72 9.57 9.64 9.79 9.90 11.83 11.79 12.01 11.73 11.51 11.46 11.74 12.15 12.51 12.37 12.25 r 12.41 12.57 8.50 8.15 8.39 8.48 8.48 8.31 9.03 9.36 9.68 9.28 8.98 9.09 9.50 9.00-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 11.50-11.50 11.50-11.00 11.00-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 10.50-10.50 11.00-10.50 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 10.98 11.10 11.21 11.13 11.64 11.82 11.93 11.82 9.85 9.85 10.01 9.92 9.80 12.39 12.51 12.66 12.61 9.11 9.35 9.68 9.64 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 8.50-8.50 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 11.00-11.00 5.56 5.90 6.39 8.02 8.73 4 5.46 7.46 10.28 11.77 13.41 11.02 High-low 1982: Dec 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dee ' Week ended: 1983: Dee 3 10 17 24 31 1 8.90 9.00 8.93 9.04 8.94 Rate on new issues within period; bank-discount basis. Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Bank-discount basis. Prior to November 1, 1979, data are for 4-6 months paper. 5 Average effective rate for year; high and low rate for month and week. 2 30 Prime rate charged 5by banks 6.83 9.06 12.67 15.27 18.87 14.86 New-home mortgage yields (FHLBB)6 9.02 9.56 10.78 12.66 14.70 15.14 High-low 13.69 13.49 13.16 13.41 12.42 12.67 12.36 12.50 12.38 12.54 12.25 12.27 6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Rates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Most stock price indexes fell in December. INDEX, DEC. 31 1965=50 100 INDEX, DEC. 31,1965=50 100 60 - 50 - 40 - 50 40 /^ 1983 PERCENT PERCENT 20 20 EARNINGS- PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) 10 1975 I 1982 1976 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD 8. POOR'S CORPORATION 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982: Dec 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec p Week ended: 1983: Dee 3 10 17 24 1 Industrial Transportation Utility 3 Finance Dow-Jones industrial average 3 Standard & Poor's composite index (194143 = 10)4 Dividendprice ratio 53.69 53.70 58.32 68.10 74.02 68.93 80.30 83.25 84.74 87.50 90.61 94.61 96.43 96.74 93.96 96.70 96.78 95.36 94.91 57.86 41.09 58.23 64.76 78.70 85.44 78.18 92.00 95.37 97.26 100.61 104.46 109.43 112.52 113.21 109.50 112.76 112.87 110.77 110.62 43.50 47.34 60.61 72.61 60.41 73.40 75.65 79.44 83.28 85.26 89.07 92.22 92.91 88.06 94.56 95.41 97.68 98.83 40.92 39.22 38.20 37.35 38.91 39.75 42.93 45.59 45.92 45.89 46.22 47.62 46.76 46.61 46.94 48.16 48.73 48.50 47.04 55.25 56.65 61.42 64.25 73.52 71.99 86.22 85.66 86.57 93.22 99.07 102.45 101.22 99.60 95.76 97.00 94.79 94.48 94.25 844.40 891.41 932.92 884.36 1,033.08 1,064.29 1,087.43 1,129.58 1,168.43 1,212.86 1,221.47 1,213.93 1,189.21 1,237.04 1,252.20 1,250.01 1,257.59 118.78 128.05 119.71 139.37 144.27 146.80 151.88 157.71 164.10 166.39 166.96 162.42 167.16 167.65 165.23 164.33 5.28 5.47 5.26 5.20 5.81 4.93 4.79 4.74 4.59 4.44 4.27 4.26 4.21 4.35 4.24 4.25 4.31 4.32 96.23 95.62 94.54 94.06 111.83 111.33 110.09 109.67 100.03 100.20 99.10 97.73 48.41 47.56 47.15 46.56 96.25 95.19 93.60 93.37 1,274.68 1,267.11 1,248.62 1,249.15 166.56 165.49 163.59 162.87 4.27 4.29 4.35 4.35 Average of daily closing prices. Includes all the* stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. Includes 30 stocks. 4 Includes 500 stocks. 5 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings2 Common st ock yields (perce nt) 5 Ne^v York Stock Ex(;hange indexes (E ec. 31, 1965—5 O) 2 Composite 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS CoiTimon stock price s 1 Period I 894.63 820.23 98.20 96.02 103.01 4.62 Earningsprice ratio 10.79 12.03 13.46 12.66 11.96 11.60 8.99 8.12 r 7.49 price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first two months of fiscal year 1984, there was a budget deficit of $46.7 billion, compared to a budget deficit of $50.3 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 900 BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS 800 800 700 700 600 600 BUDGET OUTLAYS 500 500 400 300 300 BUDGET SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-) -100 -100 -200 -200 1975 1976 1977 1979 1978 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 FISCAL YEARS COUNCIt OF ECONOMIC SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Budget receipts Period Fiscal year or period: 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Transition quarter 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983" 1984 (estimates): First Concurrent Resolution, June 23, 1983 1.... Mid-Session Review, July 1983 2 Cumulative total first 2 months: Fiscal year 1983 Fiscal year 1984 1 32 Budget surplus or deficit (— ) 207.3 230.8 263.2 279.1 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 230.7 245.6 267.9 324.2 364.5 94.2 400.5 448.4 491.0 576.7 657.2 728.4 795.9 -45.2 66.4 -13.0 44.9 -48.8 27.7 -59.6 57.9 -110.6 195.4 679.6 668.4 849.5 848.1 169.9 -179.7 82.5 91.4 132.9 138.0 50.3 -46.7 Off-budget surplus or deficit (-) Total surplus or deficit (-) Federal debt (end of period) Gross Held by the public -8.7 10.4 -12.5 14.2 -21.0 17.3 -12.4 -23.4 14.9 -6.1 53.2 -73.7 14.7 -53.6 59.2 -40.2 -73.8 -78.9 127.9 -207.7 437.3 468.4 486.2 544.1 631.9 646.4 709.1 780.4 833.8 914.3 1,003.9 1,147.0 1,381.9 323.8 343.0 346.1 396.9 480.3 498.3 551.8 610.9 644.6 715.1 794.4 929.4 1,141.8 14.0 193.7 1,614.6 1,611.9 1,339.4 -1.0 -51.3 45.9 1,166.6 1,393.8 961.5 1,162.4 23.4 -14.8 0.1 4.7 — 1.4 8.1 -7.3 1.8 ' First Concurrent Resolution, .June 23, 1983; figures exclude reserve fund items. Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1984 Budget, Office of Management and Budge July 25, 1983. 2 Budget outlays .8 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget, except as noted. FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first two months of fiscal year 1984, budget receipts were $8.9 billion higher than a year earlier and budget outlays were $5.1 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 100 100 BUDGET OUTLAYS 600 600 500 500 NONDEFENSE ^<*«** \~'+~ 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 FISCAL YEARS 1982 1981 1984 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Budget outlays Budget njeeipts Nation al defense Period Total Fiscal year or period: 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Transition quarter 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 p 1984 (estimates) l Cumulative total first 2 months: Fiscal year 1983 Fiscal year 1984 Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes Other Total 207.3 230.8 263.2 279.1 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 668.4 94.7 103.2 119.0 122.4 131.6 38.8 157.6 181.0 217.8 244.1 285.9 297.7 288.9 296.0 32.2 36.2 38.6 40.6 41.4 8.5 54.9 60.0 65.7 64.6 61.1 49.2 37.0 64.1 91.4 105.7 116.1 125.0 34.0 143.0 158.6 179.8 208.4 252.2 270.8 274.6 308.3 230.7 245.6 267.9 324.2 364.5 94.2 400.5 448.4 491.0 576.7 657.2 728.4 795.9 848.1 76.6 74.5 77.8 85.6 89.4 22.3 97.5 105.2 117.7 135.9 159.8 187.4 210.5 242.3 82.5 91.4 43.3 45.9 -1.1 .9 40.4 44.5 132.9 138.0 33.2 35.4 80.4 1 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1984 Budget, Office of Management and Budget, July 25, 1983. Total Department of Defense, military International affairs Health and income security Net interest Other 4.7 80.0 77.6 84.9 87.9 21.9 95.6 103.0 115.0 132.8 156.1 182.9 205.0 235.7 4.1 5.7 6.9 5.6 2.2 4.8 5.9 6.1 10.7 11.1 10.0 8.9 13.5 90.4 104.8 134.3 158.9 41.0 174.5 187.4 207.1 248.3 291.1 322.4 361.4 365.7 15.5 17.3 21.4 23.2 26.7 6.9 29.9 35.4 42.6 52.5 68.7 84.7 87.0 103.5 59.3 58.2 74.2 83.9 21.8 93.8 114.4 117.5 129.3 126.5 123.9 128.2 123.1 32.4 34.4 1.1 1.4 58.2 58.7 16.0 17.0 24.4 25.5 75.1 73.2 53.9 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the third quarter, according to revised estimates, Federal receipts fell $7.4 billion (annual rate) and expenditures rose $13.8 billion, yielding a deficit of $187.3 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 900 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 800 600 600 EXPENDITURES 500 RECEIPTS 400 300 \ 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 I 1 1 \ \ 1 1 1 NT SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (- -200 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 SOURCE.- DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1983 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Period Total Fiscal year: 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Calendar year: 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1981: III IV 1982: I II Ill IV 1983: I II Ill r Personal tax and nontax receipts Goverameiit receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Federal (jovernment expenditur es Contributions for social insurance Total Transfer payments Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises 414.3 480.8 525.9 610.3 627.8 186.5 222.6 250.4 289.3 310.4 67.3 76.1 69.9 70.5 51.3 27.2 29.1 35.5 53.6 50.3 153.1 170.0 196.9 215.7 450.4 495.6 576.5 668.1 740.0 150.4 164.1 189.3 218.5 251.0 182.2 201.8 239.4 279.3 310.2 74.7 79.1 86.7 90.1 83.4 33.5 40.6 50.7 67.7 82.2 13.2 431.6 493.6 540.9 627.0 617.4 638.8 629.2 619.5 622.2 615.2 612.6 194.9 230.6 257.7 298.6 304.7 308.6 303.8 306.5 308.5 300.6 303.0 71.3 74.2 70.3 67.5 46.5 68.2 61.4 47.6 48.4 47.8 42.1 28.1 29.4 39.0 56.4 48.3 55.8 55.0 49.5 47.7 47.9 48.3 137.2 159.5 173.9 204.5 217.9 206.2 209.1 215.8 217.6 218.9 219.3 461.0 509.7 602.1 689.2 764.4 701.2 725.0 728.0 735.4 773.5 820.9 153.6 168.3 197.0 229.2 258.7 232.4 248.5 249.7 244.1 261.7 279.2 185.6 209.2 251.5 286.6 321.1 295.3 300.1 302.5 311.2 325.9 344.8 77.3 80.5 88.7 87.9 83.9 86.4 84.2 82.5 85.1 83.0 85.0 35.2 42.4 53.4 73.2 84.9 75.2 79.0 79.7 82.3 88.6 89.1 9.5 9.2 11.5 12.4 15.8 12.3 13.2 13.4 12.7 14.2 22.8 623.3 652.6 645.2 297.7 304.2 286.9 48.6 59.8 66.6 48.6 56.0 55.5 228.5 232.6 236.2 806.6 818.7 832.5 273.5 273.7 278.1 340.3 347.0 343.5 85.8 86.7 87.2 88.4 91.8 101.0 18.6 18.2 22.3 133.3 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget. 34 Purchases of goods and services Grantsin-aid to State and local governments 9.7 9.9 10.4 12.5 Less: Wage accruals less disbursements Surplus or deficit (— ), national income and product accounts 0.0 -.0 .0 .1 -.0 -36.1 .0 -.0 .0 -29.5 -16.1 -61.2 -62.2 -147.1 62.4 -95.8 - 108.5 -113.2 -158.3 -208.2 .1 -.0 .3 .0 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 -1.3 ^ -14.8 50.7 -57.8 112.2 -183.3 -166.1 -187.3 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES * [1967 = 100] Indu strial prod action (seaisonally adju sted) Period 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 p 1982: Dec 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov* 1 United States 117.8 130.5 138.2 146.1 152.5 147.0 151.0 138.6 135.2 137.4 138.1 140.0 142.6 144.4 146.4 149.7 r !51.8 r 153.9 r 155.1 156.3 Consume r prices (iunadjusted) Canada Japan France Germany Italy 140.3 163.9 139 182.0 189.7 201.1 215.3 225.2 227.5 228.4 226.6 227.3 225.9 231.5 230.6 231.1 233.3 234.0 241.2 241.9 149 152 154 161 160 157 154 155 156 156 155 156 r !60 157 160 160 157 137.1 149.1 152.0 127.6 149.0 152.7 157.8 167.6 165.1 166.6 148.8 141.8 149.3 149.2 149.9 151.6 153.3 156.7 r 158.6 r 160.4 163.3 154.1 161.8 162.3 159.9 156.2 151 154 154 157 155 157 160 157 157 158 143.5 145.1 147.9 157.6 166.5 162.7 159.1 150.0 150.0 148.9 148.2 141.5 148.5 145.1 146.9 134.9 150.4 148.4 United Kingdom United States l 114.3 117.4 124.2 r 127.8 r r 132.8 124.1 r 119.2 r !21.7 r 123.0 r 123.6 r 124.2 r 122.8 r 123.0 r 123.9 r !21.8 r 125.4 125.2 125.3 r Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, International Trade Adminis- Canada Japan France Germany 160.1 172.1 185.9 202.5 221.0 243.5 273.9 303.4 313.4 312.5 313.9 317.1 317.1 317.9 321.5 322.9 324.5 324.5 326.5 205.8 224.9 243.0 252.3 178.9 196.1 214.5 144.2 150.4 155.9 160.2 161.2 170.5 181.5 195.4 217.4 246.8 272.4 289.1 292.4 293.1 293.2 293.4 295.5 297.1 298.1 299.3 300.3 301.8 302.6 303.1 261.3 282.2 296.2 304.1 306.0 306.6 305.5 307.5 308.6 312.0 309.7 308.3 307.4 311.4 233.9 259.1 294.2 332.7 373.1 386.4 390.1 392.9 396.5 401.8 404.5 406.9 410.4 412.8 416.0 419.2 166.8 175.9 186.3 196.2 199.4 199.8 200.0 199.8 200.3 201.1 201.8 202.6 203.2 203.6 203.6 Italy 186.8 218.1 255.2 286.2 328.5 398.0 472.4 549.4 594.4 602.7 610.5 616.0 622.2 628.2 632.2 638.5 641.1 649.4 660.4 United Kingdom 216.5 252.4 292.4 316.6 359.0 423.6 473.9 514.7 522.9 523.5 525.8 526.7 534.1 536.4 537.7 540.6 543.0 545.4 547.3 549.2 tration, Office of Trade Investment and Analysis, Trade Performance Division, in International Economic Indicators. U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Men handise expo rts Period and Merchandise trade balance Merc handise imp orts Gericral import s 3 Domestic exports Total domestic foreign exports 1 Exports (fas) Total 2 Food, beverages, and tobacco Crude materials and fuels Manufactured goods Total 2 Food, beverages, and tobacco Crude materi- 827 Total less imports (customs value) Exports (f.a.s.) less imports (f.a.s.) Exports (f.a.s.) less imports fuels Manufactured goods value) 2,716 3,457 4,463 4,325 5,949 7,831 4,257 5,398 6,379 8,360 9,352 10,427 8,823 11,042 13,368 15,504 18,519 21,415 7,739 6,200 6,727 5,785 6,158 11,873 12,002 11,903 10,978 10,988 22,779 21,240 21,932 19,737 20,002 -2,275 -2,647 -4,335 -3,041 -2,808 -3,306 -3,558 -5,261 -3,885 -3,655 5,911 4,413 4,655 4,511 5,845 5,562 6,014 6,577 6,445 6,889 11,981 12,561 12,672 12,856 13,351 13,249 13,842 13,913 13,377 15,528 20,962 19,906 20,381 20,675 22,473 21,964 22,988 23,817 23,194 25,917 24,248 -2,628 -2,689 -2,774 -3,697 -5,948 -4,016 -5,321 -6,152 -4,788 -7,812 -3,569 -3,580 -3,630 -4,601 -6,907 -4,956 -6,359 -7,187 -5,807 -8,966 -7,401 als and ]<\a.s. valu e Monthly average: 1975* 1976* 1977* 1978* 1979* 1980. 9,602 10,103 11,973 15,155 18,386 8,847 9,462 9,919 11,762 14,886 18,043 1,399 1,436 1,330 1,717 2,049 2,534 1,266 1,341 1,548 1,746 2,352 2,810 5,913 6,437 6,679 7,873 9,716 11,991 8,209 10,290 12,533 14,563 17,455 20,406 19,473 17,683 16,671 15,852 16,347 19,075 17,256 16,284 15,476 15,913 2,767 2,248 2,128 2,051 1,966 2,752 2,793 2,688 2,440 2,420 12,857 11,643 10,942 10,484 10,648 21,748 20,329 21,006 18,892 19,154 17,393 16,326 16,752 16,074 15,566 17,008 16,629 16,630 17,387 16,951 16,848 17,007 15,984 16,335 15,722 15,186 16,652 16,300 16,243 17,022 16,499 16,449 2,312 2,224 2,307 2,079 2,010 2,194 2,114 2,086 2,337 2,418 2,504 2,760 2,443 2,375 2,549 2,279 2,377 2,382 2,781 2,756 2,289 2,234 11,263 10,743 11,062 10,545 10,331 11,560 11,125 10,855 11,189 11,249 11,198 20,021 19,015 19,525 19,771 21,514 21,024 21,950 22,782 22,175 24,763 8,971 991 1,186 1,312 1,478 1,546 762 148 -688 -2,430 -2,590 -2,300 -2,020 -1,440 -3,265 -3,530 -3,364 -3,030 Customs value 1981 1982 1982: Get Nov Dee 1983: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov 1 Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginning January 1978. 2 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. 3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. NOTE.—Imports on c.i.f. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods. 1,529 1,485 1,686 1,499 1,414 1,582 1,530 1,479 1,612 ,652 ,456 ,560 ,551 ,587 1,722 Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Islands exports are reflected in the figures for domestic and foreign exports combined and trade balance. "Data for 1975-79 for domestic and foreign exports combined, total general imports, and trade balance include trade of the Virgin Islands. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the third quarter, the current account deficit was a record $12.0 billion, up from $9.7 billion in the second quarter. The increase was more than accounted for by the rise in the merchandise trade deficit to $18.2 billion, also a record, from $14.7 billion in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1983* COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits (—)] Merchandise 1 In vestment inconae 3 2 Period 1981: ffl IV 1982: I n m IV 1983: I r n ra '. 1 2 3 r Receipts Payments Net Net travel and transportation receipts -98,185 -124,228 -151,907 -176,020 -212,028 -249,781 -265,086 -247,606 -5,505 8,903 -9,483 -31,091 -33,966 -27,555 -25,544 -28,067 -36,389 27,587 25,351 29,286 32,179 42,245 64,132 72,445 86,243 84,146 -12,084 -12,564 -13,311 14,217 -21,680 -32,914 -42,875 52,760 -56,842 15,503 12,787 15,975 17,962 20,565 31,218 29,570 33,483 27,304 -1,653 -746 559 1,528 621 -1,778 -2,286 -1,355 179 -3,184 -2,792 -2,558 -3,565 -3,573 -2,935 -1,434 -598 -2,095 57,812 58,383 -66,214 -66,224 -8,402 7,841 22,043 21,801 -13,888 -12,892 8,155 8,909 179 -515 55,636 54,996 52,241 48,344 -61,739 -60,850 65,319 -59,698 -6,103 -5,854 13,078 -11,354 20,761 22,316 21,569 19,499 -13,824 -14,779 -14,748 -13,491 6,937 7,537 6,821 6,008 -8,810 - 14,661 - 18,169 17,697 19,027 20,622 -12,608 -13,326 -13,694 5,089 5,701 6,928 98,306 107,088 114,745 120,816 142,054 184,473 224,237 237,019 211,217 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Net balance Imports Exports Net military transactions 49,506 48,913 50,585 -103,811 r -58,316 -63,574 - 68,754 r Excludes military grants. Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the 36 Remit- Other services, net 3 Balance on goods and services * tances, pensions, and other unilateral transfers 1 Balance on current account 9,147 3,986 22,749 4,598 9,205 4,711 5,272 -9,894 6,013 -10,340 4,686 5,735 7,477 7,172 8,060 11,523 7,822 -3,177 1,962 -7,186 -4,613 18,136 4,207 -4,998 -4,617 -14,511 -5,106 -15,446 -964 -5,649 421 -7,056 4,592 -6,931 -8,034 -11,211 -184 -30 2,053 1,988 1,801 2,571 -1,884 -1,986 -83 585 -51 201 54 -26 -208 -561 -557 -769 2,050 1,914 1,906 1,951 2,625 3,236 -4,854 -4,190 -2,061 -1,802 -1,742 -2,431 564 1,434 -6,596 -6,621 516 117 -21 -935 -1,222 -745 2,114 2,234 2,092 -2,026 -7,832 -9,915 -1,561 -3,587 -1,823 -9,655 -2,061 -11,976 United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $0.5 billion in the third quarter compared to a decrease of $5.2 billion in the second quarter. Liabilities to foreigners and international financial institutions reported by U.S. banks increased $17.4 billion compared to a $4.0 billion increase in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 160 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 40 40 CHANGE IN FOREIGN ASSETS IN THE U.S., NET /, \ 20 -20 -20 -40 -40 -60 -60 1975 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Foreign assets in the II.S., net [increase /capital inflovsr ( + )] 2 U.S. assets abroad, net [increase /capitad outflow ( — ) Period U.S. Total 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 official reserve assets 1 2 Other U.S. Government assets U.S. private assets Total Foreign official assets Other foreign assets Statistical discrepancy Allocations of special drawing rights (SDKs) Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy U S official assets, netl (unadjusted, end of period) 15,883 16,226 18,747 19,312 18,650 18,956 26,756 30,074 33,958 -1,458 5,897 10,544 -2,023 12,540 25,404 29,556 24,238 41,390 366 -33,643 3,474 35,380 -4,214 -44,498 30,717 3,693 -4,660 -57,202 59,453 3,746 -5,140 -72,757 5,078 100,348 -5,732 -107,348 34,241 15,670 36,518 51,319 64,036 38,752 54,922 80,678 87,866 10,546 7,027 17,693 36,816 33,678 13,665 15,566 5,430 3,172 23,696 8,643 18,826 14,503 30,358 52,416 39,356 75,248 84,694 __4 262 -1,274 973 - 16,001 47,106 16,731 41,551 -5,880 8,792 22,611 32,760 632 5,680 -1,145 -31,456 -40,934 -26,099 -19,553 -1,089 -1,132 -794 -1,950 807 -1,489 2,502 -934 29,560 -38,313 22,803 -16,670 27,124 31,612 17,613 11,517 -3,061 1,930 2,642 1,661 30,185 29,682 14,972 9,855 3,768 7,887 15,082 14,657 -729 881 -1,190 1,042 29,944 30,671 30,993 33,958 1983: I -21,699 II r -658 IIP.... -6,429 -787 -1,053 -1,162 -1,188 -19,859 488 -5,770 16,452 10,956 18,487 49 1,973 -3,235 16,403 8,983 21,722 8,833 -644 -82 -212 792 -1,355 34,261 33,876 33,066 34,745 -39,703 51,269 -34,785 61,130 -64,331 -86,052 -110,601 -118,045 -1,467 -849 -2,558 -375 732 -1,133 -8,155 -5,175 -4,965 1981: III IV -17,279 -47,817 1982: I II Ill IV 16 529 1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the IMF. 2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. 1,139 1,152 1,093 1,350 29,715 30,074 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income '. Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment—Nonfarm Business..... 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets Components of Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets Consumer Installment Credit Bank Loans and Investments, and Reserves Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields « 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: p Preliminary. r Revised. c Corrected. ... Not available (also, not applicable). For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Price $4.25 (single copy) ($5.35 foreign). Subscription price: $25.00 per year; $31.25 for foreign mailing. 38 O U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1983 0—28-861
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