Full text of Economic Indicators : December 1982

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97th Congress, 2d Session

Economic Indicators
DECEMBER 1982
Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the




Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1982

St.
JAN

St.

/U93
Mo.

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
HENRY S. REUSS, Wisconsin, Chairman
ROGER W. JEPSEN, Iowa, Vice Chairman
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
RICHARD BOLLING (Missouri)
LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana)
GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana)
PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland)
AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California)
CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio)
MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts)
JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California)
CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio)

SENATE
WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)
JAMES ABDNOR (South Dakota)
STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho)
PAULA HAWKINS (Florida)
MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia)
LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas)
WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin)
EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)
PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland)

JAMES K. GALBRAITH, Executive Director

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
MARTIN S. FELDSTEIN, Chairman
WILLIAM A. NISKANEN, Member
WILLIAM POOLE, Member
[PUBLIC LAW 120—81ST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the
Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that
a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant
at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two
copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the
Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for
distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies
printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.

Economic Indicators, published monthly, is for sale by the Superintendent
of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402.




TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
According to revised estimates for the third quarter of 1982, gross national product rose $43.0 billion or 5.8
percent, both at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 0.7 percent (annual rate) and the
implicit price deflator rose at a 5.0 percent annual rate.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
3,200

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

(RATIO SCALE)

3,200

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

3,000

3,000

2,800

2,800

2,600

2,600
GNP
. IN CURRENT DOLLARS _

2,400

2,400

2,200

2,200

2,000

2,000

1,800

1,800

1,600

1,600

1,400
GNP
IN 1972 DOLLARS

1,200

1,200

1975

1974

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

Gross
national
product

Imports

Total

National
defense

Nondefense

812.0
888.1
976.4
1,084.3
1,204.4
1,346.5
1,507.2
1,667.2
1,843.2

234.9
253.1
270.4
304.1
339.9
362.1
393.8
431.9
474.4
538.4
596.9

96.2
101.7
102.0
111.0
122.7
129.2
USA
153,6
168.3
197.2
228.9

70.2
73.1
72.8
77.0
83.0
86.0
92.8
100.3
111.8
131.4
153.7

26.0
28.5
29.1
33.9
39.7
43.2
50.6
53.3
56.5
65.8
75.2

138.7
151.4
168.5
193.1
217.2
232.9
250.4
278.3
306.0
341.2
368.0

1,070.0
1,175.7
1,307.9
1,420.1
1,556.1
1,706.2
1,895.3
2,137.4
2,403.5
2,643.1
2,917.3

2,643.7
2,739.4

1,682.0
1,745.8

384.1
410.3

39.0
23.5

337.2
346.7

298.2
323.2

538.5
559.8

193.3
207.0

130.5
138.1

62.8
68.9

345.2
352.8

2,664.8
2,757.1

2,864.9
2,901.8
2,980.9
3,003.2

1,799.9
1,819.4
1,868.8
1,884.5

455.7
475.5
486.0
468.9

31.2
23.7
25.9
23.5

365.4
368.9
367.2
367.9

334.2
345.1
341.3
344.4

578.1
583.2
600.2
626.3

217.0
218.2
230.0
250.5

143.1
150.5
154.4
166.9

73.9
67.7
75.7
83.6

361.1
365.0
370.1
375.7

2,852.7
2,877.2
2,949.1
2,989.9

2,995.5
3,045.2
3,088.2

1,919.4
1,947.8
1,986.3

414.8
431.5
443.3

31.3
34.9
6.9

359.9
365.8
349.5

328.6
330.9
342.5

630.1
630.9
651.7

249.7
244.3
259.0

166.2
176.2
182.7

83.5
68.2
76.3

380.4
386.6
392.7

3,031.1
3,061.4
3,083.5

672.2
737.1

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




Exports

State and
local

64.7
76.7
95.4
132.8
128.1
157.1
186.7
219.8
268.1
314.0
341.3

1981: I

nr
m

Final

Federal

Net
exports

68.8
77.5
109.6
146.2
154.9
170.9
182.7
218.7
281.4
339.2
367.3

1980: IH
IV

1982: I

Goveniment purchsises of
goo ds and services

Exports an d imports of goods and
services

4.1
.7
14.2
13.4
26.8
13.8
4.0
-1.1
13.2
25.2
26.1

1,077.6
1,185.9
1,326.4
1,434.2
1,549.2
1,718.0
1,918.3
2,163.9
2,417.8
2,633.1
2,937.7

IV

Gross
private
domestic
investment

166.4
195.0
229.8
228.7
206.1
257.9
324.1
386.6
423.0
402.3
471.5

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

n
m

Personal
consumption
expenditures

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS
[Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

E; ports of goo ds
and services

jrross private
Gross
national
product

Period

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Total

97.3
108.5
103.5
110.1
112.9
126.7
146.2
159.2
158.5

53.1
45.6

155.9
155.1

2.4
12.1
16.5
4.8

48.2
44.2
39.2
36.5

-15.4
-4.4
3.4

36.9
35.7
27.5

-8.5
-6.2

1,507.8
1,502.2
1,510.4
1,490.1

951.1
944.6
951.4
943.4

169.7
170.1
173.9
174.2

49.6
47.3
42.9
39.9

1,470.7
1,478.4
1,481.1

949.1
955.0
956.3

172.0
166.7
163.4

38.9
40.1
39.5

53.7
63.8

Imports

250.1
253.1
253.3
260.3
265.2
265.2
269.2
274.6
278.3
284.6

44.0
49.5

112.2
121.0
138.1
135.7

Exports

69.3
76.7
81.8
80.7
71.4
84.7
90.9
102.7
109.0
108.6
116.4

163.8
166.4

1981: I
II

n
nr

exports

928.0
941.0

1,463.8
1,479.4

1982: I

Final
Net

119.3
125.6
140.3
158.3
169.9
166.1
172.0

1980: in
IV

IV

business
inventories

62.3
48.2
42.2
51.2
60.7
62.4
59.1
47.2
44.9

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

m

Residential fixed

.7
15.5
27.8
32.2
25.4
22.0
24.0
37.2
50.6
42.0

696.8
737.1
767.9
762.8
779.4
823.1
864.3
903.2
927.6
930.5
947.6

Governm ent purchases of goods
and services

Change
dential
fixed

8.1
10.2
17.2
11.6
6.7
7.8
13.3
16.0
7.3
-5.0
9.0

1,122.4
1,185.9
1,254.3
1,246.3
1,231.6
1,298.2
1,369.7
1,438.6
1,479.4
1,474.0
1,502.6

1971
1972
1973

dom estic mvestnlent

1.6

Federal

State and
local

287.1

96.6
97.4
96.8
100.4
100.3
102.1
106.5
110.4

146.4
151.4
157.4
163.6
167.8
168.4
168.8
174.3
176.2
178.1
176.7

1,114.3
1,175.3
1,237.1
1,234.7
1,238.4
1,290.4
1,356.4
1,422.6
1,472.2
1,479.0
1,493.7

102.8
109.6

283.4
283.2

105.5
104.8

177.9
178.4

1,472.4
1,485.7

159.3
159.7
157.8
156.9

111.1
115.5
118.7
120.4

286.8
283.9
286.4
291.3

107.9
107.0
110.7
116.0

179.0
176.9
175.7
175.3

1,505.4
1,490.1
1,493.9
1,485.3

151.7
154.4
147.5

114.7
118.7
120.0

289.2
285.3
291.1

114.4
110.3
116.2

174.9
175.0
174.9

1,486.1
1,482.7
1,477.8

71.0
77.5

103.7
101.7
95.9

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
[1972—100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]

Period

Gross
national
product

Gross priva te domestic
mves ment

Personal c ansumption
expen iitures
Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable goods

Services

dential
fixed

109.1
120.3
131.0
140.7
158.0
178.3
200.5
218.5
233.6

187.9
190.8

221.8
223.4

216.3
223.5

290.1
294.9

183.3
197.5

194.0
197.8

189.6
193.4
198.6
203.6

194.5
200.7
203.0
206.8

229.0
231.7
235.8
239.2

229.3
230.9
232.6
234.5

300.7
298.7
287.7
286.1

201.2
204.0
207.8
216.0

201.7
206.3
210.7
214.3

207.4
210.6
215.3

207.6
211.3
210.7

240.5
238.6
238.8

237.3
236.8
236.9

286.4
278.8
285.4

218.3
221.6
223.0

217.5
220.9
224.5

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

95.6
100.0
104.7
113.0
121.6
129.6
139.3
150.0
162.3
178.8
196.3

96.2
100.0
103.8
115.4
132.2
138.6
146.3
157.2
170.8
186.1
201.3

1980: m
IV

180.60
185.16

181.2
185.5

158.0
161.1

190.5
195.1

180.9
185.4

1981: I

190.01
193.17
197.36
201.55

189.2
192.6
196.4
199.8

163.0
166.2
169.7
171.3

199.3
201.7
204.2
205.6

1982: I

203.68
205.98
208.51

202.2
204.0
207.7

173.0
174.0
176.1

206.8
207.1
210.0

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




State and
local
94.7
100.0
107.0
118.0
129.4
138.3
148.4
159.7
173.7
191.6
208.2

96.6
100.0
108.5
123.4
132.5
137.2
143.6
153.4
169.9
188.4
202.7

n
nr

Federal
92.7
100.0
106.3
114.9
126.0
133.5
142.8
153.1
164.8
185.2
207.4

99.0
100.0
101.7
108.2
117.3
123.9
129.2
136.4
145.0
156.3
167.5

n
m
rv

Imports

93.3
100.0
116.7
164.6
179.6
185.6
205.5
214.1
246.1
289.3
293.1

96.5
100.0
105.7
116.4
125.3
131.7
139.3
149.1
162.5
179.2
194.5

96.01

Exports

Governmen t purchases
of goods a ad services

97.0
100.0
112.7
134.8
149.6
155.3
161.9
172.6
192.5
213.1
231.8

100.00
105.75
115.08
125.79
132.34
140.05
150.42
163.42
178.64
195.51

1971
1972

Residential fixed

Exports a nd imports
of goods a id services

94.8
100.0

CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES
[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Gro ss national pr jduct
Period

Current
dollars

1970

5.2

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1980: III
IV

8.6

10.9
11.7
12.8
11.7

1981:

19.6

10.1
11.8

8.1
8.0

8.9

I
II
Ill
IV

3.4
5.7
5.8
-.6
-1.2

5.4
5.5
5.0
2.8
4

1.9

11.4
15.3

1.6
4.3
7.9
-1.5
2.2
-5.3
-5.1
2.1
.7

11.4

3.0
-1.0

6.8
5.8

nr

-0.2

11.6

5.3

1982: I
II

Implicit
price
deflator

Constant
(1972)
dollars

Persona! consumption 63cpenditures

Chain price
index

Fixedweighted
price index
(1972
weights)

Constant
(1972)
dollars

Current
dollars

Implicit
price
deflator

5.2
4.8
4.0
6.0
9.4
9.1
5.8
6.3
7.8
9.5
9.9
9.6

9.6

5.3
4.9
4.1
6.0
9.1
9.2
5.7
6.1
7.6
8.9
9.0
9.4
9.7

10.5

11.0

11.2

15.6
16.1

10.9

9.3
8.2
9.2
8.4

10.0

13.0

4.4

4.4

-2.7

11.3

2.9

5.4
5.0
4.2
5.8
8.8
9.3
5.2
5.8
7.4
8.6
9.3
9.4

6.8
9.0
8.8
4.3
4.6
5.0

NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter-

10.2

9.4
9.9
11.0
11.1
11.8
11.9
10.6
10.6

9.4

8.4
8.9
8.5
4.8
4.1
5.9

5.0
4.6
6.0

2.2
3.7
5.8
4.2
-.7
2.2
5.6
5.0
4.5
2.7
.3
1.8
5.4
5.7

6.9
8.1
9.6

3.4

2.5
2.5
.6

Fixedweighted
price index
(1972
weights)
4.5

3.7
5.7

4.6
4.3
3.6
6.1

10.1

10.4

10.4

7.6
5.1
5.8
7.0
9.0

7.7
5.3
6.0
7.3
9.3

7.8
5.3
6.2
7.4
9.7

10.3

10.7

11.2

8.6
9.6
9.8

9.1
9.8

9.3

10.0

10.1

10.3

10.9

7.4
8.0
7.2
5.2
3.6
7.1

7.7
7.6
7.1

4.6
4.3

8.3
7.3
8.2
7.0

-3.3

7.6
6.1
8.1

Chain price
index

5.0
3.5
7.5

4.2
3.5
6.1

9.8

4.8
3.2
7.3

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND
PROFITS
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Cur rent-dollar cc st and profit per unit of output (dolla rs)'

Gross c omestic
product of lonfinancial
corporate business
(billions c f dollars)
Period
Current
dollars

1972
dollars

Total
cost and
profit 2

Capital
consumption
allowances
with
capital
consumption
adjustment

Indirect
business
taxes 3

Compensation of
employees

Corporate profits with inventory
valuation imd capital cc nsumption
adjustments
Net
interest

Total

Profits
tax
liability

Profits
after tax 4

of all
employees (1972
dollars)

Compensation per
hour of
all
employees
(dollars)

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

563.7
609.9
678.0
759.4
818.9
890.0
1,001.3
1,128.4
1,276.2
1,416.8
1,537.7
1,732.3

599.6
626.8
678.0
731.9
708.2
694.2
745.5
795.8
846.3
876.1
860.3
881.3

0.940
.973
1.000
1.038
1.156
1.282
1.343
1.418
1.508
1.617
1.787
1.966

0.087
.091
.092
.093
.112
.137
.141
.145
.155
.171
.200
.222

0.106
.113
.113
.114
.127
.140
.141
.141
.144
.149
.173
.202

0.631
.641
.659
.692
.786
.837
.878
.928
.998
1.094
1.211
1.305

0.028
.029
.028
.031
.042
.044
.040
.040
.044
.050
.061
.071

0.088
.099
.107
.107
.090
.124
.144
.163
.168
.154
.143
.165

0.045
.047
.049
.055
.059
.059
.071
.075
.079
.079
.075
.072

0.043
.052
.058
.053
.030
.065
.073
.088
.089
.075
.068
.093

8.144
8.217
8.202
8.169
8.311

8.199
8.970
9.891
10.846

1980: HI
IV

1,543.6
1,606.5

852.5
867.4

1.811
1,852

.206
.208

.178
.186

1.224
1.245

.061
.066

.143
.147

.075
.078

.068
.069

8.192
8.235

10.024
10.249

1981: I

1,683.3
1,715.0
1,763.6
1,767.2

883.0
884.2
887.5
870.4

1.906
1.940
1.987
2.030

.211
.218
.224
.236

.196
.202
.203
.208

1.267
1.289
1.315
1.349

.062
.069
.074
.078

.170
.161
.171
.159

.081
.069
.074
.063

.089
.091
.097
.096

8.328
8.320
8.324
8.273

10.551
10.727
10.947
11.163

1,756.6
1,771.0
1,794.4

858.8
857.9
859.3

2.045
2.064
2.088

.242
.247
.251

.205
.211
.214

1.376
1.388
1.392

.082
.085
.085

.140
.134
.146

.045
.043
.049

.095
.091
.097

8.279
8.334
8.429

11.391
11.564
11.730

n
m
IV

1982:

I

n
nr

"Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1972 do!lars.
'S.
2
This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with
the decimal point shifted two places to the left.
3
Indirect business tax and nontax liability plits business transfer payments Jess subsidies,
4
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.




7.115
7.450
7.664
7.849
7.555
7.774
8.002

4.491
4.778
5.052
5.429
5.937
6.507
7.024
7.558

NOTE.—Series for output per hour and compensation per hour of all employees are as revised in
November Economic Indicators.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor
(Bureau of Labor Statistics).

NATIONAL INCOME
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

National
income

Compensation of
employees *

Proprietors' income with
inventory viiluation and
capital co isumption
adjust ments

Nonfarm

Farm

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1980:

m
IV

1981: I
II

m
IV

1982: I

n r
rri

1

Corporate p rofits with inv sntory valuatio n and capital consumption
adjustments

Rental
income of
persons
with
capital
consumption
adjustment

Profits wath inventory valuation
adjustmt nt and withou t capital
consiimption adjust ment

Capital
consump-

Total
Inventory
valuation
adjustment

Profits

Total

Net
interest

adjustment

871.5
963.6
1,086.2
1,160.7
1,239.4
1,379.2
1,550.5
1,760.3
1,966.7
2,117.1
2,352.5

652.2
718.0
801.3
877.5
931.4
1,036.3
1,152.1
1,301.1
1,458.1
1,598.6
1,767.6

15.0
18.7
32.8
26.5
24.6
19.1
19.1
26.3
31.9
19.4
24.0

54.4
58.1
61.0
62.2
65.4
75.0
84.8
92.2
100.2
96.9
100.7

20.2
21.0
22.6
23.5
23.0
23.5
24.8
26.6
27.9
32.9
33.9

83.2
96.6
108.3
94.9
110.5
138.1
167.3
192.4
194.8
181.6
190.6

82.0
94.0
105.6
96.7
120.6
151.6
178.5
205.1
209.6
199.4
207.5

86.6
100.6
125.6
136.7
132.1
166.3
194.7
229.1
252.7
242.4
232.1

-4.6
-6.6
-20.0
-40.0
-11.6
-14.7
-16.2
-24.0
43.1
—43.0
-24.6

1.3
2.7
2.7
-1.8
-10.1
-13.5
-11.3
-12.7
-14.8
-17.8
-16.8

46.5
51.2
60.2
76.1
84.5
87.2
102.5
121.7
153.8
187.7
235.7

2,122.3
2,199.2

1,604.9
1,662.8

20.3
19.2

95.1
98.8

33.8
34.2

177.8
181.2

197.0
200.4

238.1
245.9

-41.1
-45.5

-19.3
-19.2

190.4
203.0

2,293.7
2,324.4
2,387.3
2,404.5

1,718.0
1,750.0
1,789.1
1,813.4

21.6
22.5
27.1
24.6

101.8
101.2
100.4
99.5

34.4
34.0
33.6
33.6

200.3
185.1
193.1
183.9

217.6
202.6
210.3
199.4

253.1
225.4
233.3
216.5

-35.5
-22.8
-23.0
-17.1

-17.3
-17.5
-17.1

-15.5

217.6
231.6
244.0
249.5

2,396.9
2,425.2
2,455.6

1,830.8
1,850.7
1,868.3

17.8
17.4
16.6

98.6
99.9
101.7

33.9
34.2
34.6

157.1
155.4
166.2

167.2
162.2
170.0

171.6
171.7
180.3

-4.4
-9.4
-10.3

-10.1
-6.9
-3.8

258.7
267.5
268.1

Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.)

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Durable goods
Period

Total
personal
consumption
expenditures

Nondura tie goods
]

Total
durable
goodsl

Motor
vehicles
and parts

Furniture
and
household
equipment

Total
nondurable
goods1

Food

Clothing
and shoes

Gasoline
and oil

Services

Retail sa es of new
passenj?er cars
(millions of units)
Domestics

Imports

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

672.2
737.1
812.0
888.1
976.4
1,084.3
1,204.4
1,346.5
1,507.2
1,667.2
1,843.2

97.2
111.1
123.3
121.5
132.2
156.8
178.2
200.2
213.4
214.3
234.6

45.4
52.4
57.1
50.4
55.8
72.6
84.8
95.7
96.6
89.7
98.6

37.2
41.7
47.1
50.6
53.5
59.1
65.7
72.8
81.8
86.3
93.4

278.8
300.6
333.4
373.4
407.3
441.7
478.8
528.2
600.0
670.4
734.5

154.9
172.1
193.7
213.6
230.6
249.8
275.9
311.6
343.7
375.3

50.6
55.4
61.4
64.8
69.6
75.3
82.6
92.4
99.1
104.7
114.6

23.9
25.4
28.6
36.6
40.4
44.0
48.1
51.2
66.6
87.0
96.8

296.2
325.3
355.2
393.2
437.0
485.7
547.4
618.0
693.7
782.5
874.1

8.7
9.3
9.6
7.4
7.0
8.5
9.0
9.2
8.2
6.6
6.2

1.6
1.6
1.8
1.4
1.6
1.5
2.1
2.0
2.3
2.4
2.3

1980: ffl
IV

1,682.0
1,745.8

212.7
224.7

88.1
93.7

86.0
90.4

673.7
700.5

346.4
358.0

104.8
108.9

87.0
92.8

795.6
820.6

6.4
6.7

2.3
2.5

1981: I

1,799.9
1,819.4
1,868.8
1,884.5

236.9
230.4
241.2
229.6

102.1
94.2
104.0
93.9

93.1
93.3
93.8
93.3

720.6
729.6
741.3
746.5

368.8
372.1
378.0
382.3

112.3
114.0
115.9
116.0

95.2
96.7
97.7
97.5

842.4
859.4
886.3
908.3

7.2
5.7
6.8
5.2

2.6
2.3
2.2
2.2

1,919.4
1,947.8
1,986.3

237.9
240.7
240.3

103.2
103.3
104.3

91.0
93.2
92.7

749.1
755.0
768.4

387.9
395.0
401.3

117.5
118.4
119.1

95.3
91.3
94.2

932.4
952.1
977.6

5.8
5.5
5.5

2.2
2.0
2.2

n
m

IV

1982: I

n r
m

1

Total includes other items not shown separately.




144.2

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income rose $9.8 billion (annual rate) in November, following a rise of $14.1 billion in October. Transfer
payments were up $7.2 billion in November compared with an $8.7 billion increase in October. Wages and
salaries fell $1.0 billion in November, compared with an increase of $1.0 billion in October.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*|RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO !

120

120
1982
*SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Proprietor ' income 3
Period

1974

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981: Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
Julylr
Aug
Septr '
Get
Nov"

Total
personal
income

1,168.6
1,265.0
1,391.2
1,540.4
1,732.7
1,951.2
2,160.4
2,415.8
2,499.0
2,497.6
2,499.1
2,513.8
2,518.6
2,535.5
2,556.2
2,566.3
2,588.3
2,592.0
2,597.2
2,611.3
2,621.1

disburse-

765.7
806.4
889.9
983.2
1,106.3
1,237,6
1,356.1
1,493.9
1,534.2
1,530.5
1,535.7
1,546.6
1,542.6
1,546.6
1,560.4
1,562.9
1,569.5
1,570.3
1,570.1
1,571.1
1,570.1

income *

2

55.8
64.5
75.9
89.4
102.5
114.9
127.2
140.4
145.8
146.9
148.0
149.1
150.2
151.3
152.5

153.6
154.6
155.5
156.5
157.2
157.9

Farm

26.5
24.6
19.1
19.1
26.3
31.9
19.4
24.0
24.7
22.8
19.9
17.3
16.3
16.9
17.3
18.0
17.3
16.6
16.0
17.3
19.0

1
The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of
employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of
wage accruals over wage disbursements,
^Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workmen's
compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items.
3
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.




Nonfarm

62.2
65.4
75.0
84.8
92.2
100.2
96.9
100.7
100.1
99.5

98.6
98.4
98.8
99.3
100.3
100.2
100.9
101.7
102.5
103.7
104.2

Rental
income of4
persons

23.5
23.0
23.5
24.8
26.6
27.9
32.9
33.9
33.6
33.6
33.7
33.9
34.0
34.1
34.2
34.3
34.5
34.6
34.7
34.8
34.3

Personal
dividend
income

29.1
29.9
36.5
39.6
45.3

50.8
55.9
62.5
65.2
65.4
65.6
65.9
65.9
66.1
66.2
66.1
66.6
67.3
67.7
68.4
68.9

Personal
interest
income

112.4
123.2
132.5
152.8

179.4
218.7
263.4
329.0
351.1
352.1
355.5
359.8
363.8
368.0
372.0
376.0
377.6
378.3
378.8
379.4
379.6

Transfer
payments 5

141.2
178.3
194.3
207.9
223.8

250.3
297.2
336.3
351.5
353.6
352.4
353.8
357.5
363.9
364.8
366.9
379.7
380.2
383.3
392.0
399.2

4

Less:
Personal
contributions
for social
insurance

47.9
50.4
55.5
61.1
69.8
81.1
88.7
104.9
107.2
106.8
110.3
110.9
110.6
110.8
111.6
111.7
112.4
112.5
112.4
112.4
112.2

Nonfarm
personal
income 6

1,131.8
1,229.1
1,359.3
1,506.5

1,689.7
1,899.3
2,117.3
2,364.1
2,444.6
2,444.6
2,448.6
2,465.5
2,470.8
2,486.8
2,506.9
2,516.0
2,538.5
2,542.8
2,548.5
2,561.2
2,569.1

With capital consumption adjustment.
Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments.
Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income,
and agricultural net interest.
5

6

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME
Real per capita disposable income rose slight)/ in the third quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

2,400 C

2,400

5,000

4,000

3,000

3,000
1974

1982

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Personal
income

Period

Less:
Personal
tax and
nontax
payments

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Equals:
Disposable
personal
income

Less:
Personal
outlays:

Equals:
Personal
saving

Per c apita
disposabk personal
inet>me
Current
dollars

1972
dollars

Per capit i personal
consu nption
expert 3itures
Current
dollars

1972
dollars

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

1,065.2
1,168.6
1,265.0
1,391.2
1,540.4
1,732.7
1,951.2
2,160.4
2,415.8

150.7
170.2
168.9
196.8
226.4
258.7
301.0
336.3
386.7

914.5
998.3
1,096.1
1,194.4
1,314.0
1,474.0
1,650.2
1,824.1
2,029.1

835.5
913.2
1,001.8
1,111.9
1,236.0
1,384.6
1,553.5
1,717.9
1,898.9

1980: LH
IV

2,185.3
2,260.0

339.7
357.1

1,845.5
1,902.9

1,732.5
1,797.6

113.1
105.3

8,095
8,325

1981: I

2,330.0
2,380.6
2,458.2
2,494.6

371.2
384.2
398.1
393.2

1,958.7
1,996.5
2,060.0
2,101.4

1,852.8
1,874.5
1,925.7
1,942.7

105.9
122.0
134.4
158.6

2,510.5
2,552.7
2,592.5

393.4
401.2
394.4

2,117.1
2,151.5
2,198.1

1,977.9
2,007.2
2,046.1

139.1
144.3
152.0

79.0

85.1
94.3
82.5
78.0
89.4
96.7
106.2
130.2

3,831
4,152
4,521
4,972
5,468
6,048
6,695
7,323
8,018

3,623
3,566
3,609
3,774
3,924
4,057
4,121
4,087
4,123

5.7
-1.7
1.0
2.6
2.9
3.8
1.6

4,466
4,487

7,378
7,638

8,551
8,698
8,951
9,107

4,519
4,516
4,557
4,559

9,155
9,285
9,461

4,527
4,552
4,555

4,315
4,667
5,075
5,477
5,965
6,621
7,331
8,012
8,827

4,080
4,009
4,051
4,158
4,280
4,441
4,512
4,472
4,538

Saving as
percent of
disposable
personal
income

Population
(thou-2
sands)

Per cent

Do lars

Billions of dol ars

Percent
change in
real per
capita
disposable
personal

1.5

8.6
8.5
8.6
6.9
5.9
6.1
5.9
5.8
6.4

211,939
213,898
215,981
218,086
220,289
222,629
225,106
227,654
229,872

4,071
4,117

3.9
1.9

6.1
5.5

227,978
228,579

7,858
7,926
8,120
8,167

4,152
4,115
4,134
4,088

2.9
-.3
3.7
.2

5.4
6.1
6.5
7.5

229,053
229,539
230,145
230,751

8,300
8,406
8,550

4,104
4,121
4,116

-2.8
2.2
.3

6.6
6.7
6.9

231,246
231,724
232,320

n

Seas anally adju sted annual rates

n
m
rv

1982: I

n

r

HI ....

1
Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net).
2
Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages
for the period.




Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).

FARM INCOME
In the third quarter, gross farm income fell $1.4 billion (annual rate) and net farm income fell $1.6 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
200

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
200

10

1982
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Income of farm ope rators from farmi"g

(Jross farm incom
P

" H

Cas h marketing rece pts

Total '
Total

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

98.0
101.0
101.9
108.6
127.3
151.3
150.6

1980: I

n
m

IV
1981:

I

n
m

IV

1982: Irr

n
nr.

Livestock and
products

Crops

Value of
inventory
changes 2

Production
expenses

Current
dollars

1967 dollars 3

166.8

92.4
88.9
95.4
96.2
112.5
131.7
139.5
143,5

41.3
43.1
46.3
47.6
58.8
68.6
67.8
68.5

51.1
45.8
49.0
48.6
53.7
63.1
71.7
75.0

-1.6
3.4
-2.4
1.0
1.1
5.6
-4.3
5.5

72.0
75.8
83.3
90.2
100.6
119.0
130.5
141.6

26.0
25.2
18.7
18.4
26.7
32.4
20.1
25.1

17.6
15.6
11.0
10.2
13.6
14.9
8.2
9.2

148.6
145.2
153.2
155 .4

135.3
134.3
143.6
144.8

66.7
64.4
69.3
70.8

68.6
69,9
74.3
74.0

-1.4
-4.2
6.0
-5.6

125.7
128.7
132.0
135.4

22.9
16.5
21.2
20.0

9.5
6.8
8.5
7.8

161.8
164.7
171.5
168.8

142.5
142.3
146.7
142.5

67.9
69.4
71.0
65.7

74.6
72.9
75.7
76.8

2.5
5.3
7.2
7.0

139.0
141.0
143.2
143.2

22.8
23.7
28.3
25.6

8.6
8.8
10.2
9.1

163.5
163.0
161.6

143.4
144.4
143.2

67.4
70.1
70.4

76.0
74.3
72.8

.5
— .5
.0

143.6
144.0
144.2

19.9
19.0
17.4

6.6
5.9

J
Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash
income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms.
2
Phvsical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average
prices during the year.




Net farni income

3

Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index (Department of Labor).

Source: Department of Agriculture, except as noted.

7.0

CORPORATE PROFITS
In the third quarter of 1982, according to revised estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $8.6 billion (annual
rate) from their second quarter level and after-tax profits rose $3.1 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
320 [

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
320

120

80

80

40

40

1974

1982

SOURCE-- DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Profits after ta X

Pr ofits (before 1 ax) with inve ntory valuation adjustmen t '
Do nestic indust ries

Nonfmancial

Period
Total

1971
1972
1973
1974

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1980: m
IV
1981: I

n
ra
IV

1982:

I

n r
m

1
2

2

82.0
94.0
105.6
96.7
120.6
151.6
178.5
205.1
209.6
199.4
207.5
197.0
200.4
217.6
202.6
210.3
199.4
167.2
162.2
170.0

Total

Financial

Total 3

sale and
retail
trade
11.7
13.4
13.9
12.5
21.3
22.4

74.9
85.3
92.0
80.4
107.6
137.4
163.4
185.4
179.0
169.1
184.6

14.1
15.3
15.9
15.0
11.8
17.1
23.1
31.0
30.3
29.2
22.7

60.8
70.0'
76.0
65.4
95.8
120.3
140.3
154.4
148.6
140.0
162.0

34.1
40.7
45.5
39.0
52.6
69.2
78.3
86.9
85.6
74.5
86.3

167.5
175.5

27.2
29.4

140.3
146.1

70.0
78.1

193.8

26.8
22.7
20.8
20.4

167.0
159.0

90.3
88.9

168.5
153.3
130.4
121.9
129.5

92.2
73.7
57.7
56.6
62.7

181.7
189.3
173.7
150.3
144.1
153.7

20.0
22.2
24.2

See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.




Manufacturing

26.6
26.9
27.1
24.6
33.4
24.4
27.3
33.0
32.1
33.0
35.7
31.9
26.8
27.4
3

Profits
before tax

Tax
liability

86.6
100.6
125.6
136.7
132.1
166.3
194.7
229.1
252.7
242.4
232.1
238.1
245.9
253.1
225.4
233.3
216.5
171.6
171.7
180.3

37.5
41.6
49.0
51.6
50.6
63.8
72.7
83.2
87.6
84.7
81.2

49.0
58.9
76.6
85.1
81.5
102.5
122.0
145.9
165.1
157.8
150.9

22.9
24.4
27.0
29.9
30.8
37.4
40.8
47.0
52.7
58.1
65.1

82.2
87.8

155.9
158.1

58.7
59.6

91.5
79.2
82.4
71.6

161.6
146.2
150.8
144.9

61.5
64.0
66.8
68.1

56.7
55.3
60.9

115.0
116.3
119.4

68.8
69.3
70.5

Total

Dividends

Includes industries not shown separately.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Undistributed
profits

26.1
34.5
49.6
55.2
50.7
65.1
81.2

98.9
112.4
99.7
85.8
97.3
98.5
100.1
82.2
84.0
76.9
46.1
47.0
48.8

Inventory
valuation
adjustment

-4.6
-6.6
-20.0
-40.0
-11.6
-14.7
-16.2
-24.0
-43.1
-43.0
-24.6
-41.1
-45.5
-35.5
-22.8
-23.0
-17.1

-4.4
-9.4
-10.3

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
According to revised estimates for the third quarter, business fixed investment declined $8.0 billion (annual rate)
from its second quarter level and residential investment outlays fell $1.2 billion. There was a $4.7 billion increase
in inventories following a $16.2 billion decrease in the second quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

550

-50
1974
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

private
domestic
investment

67.4
76.9
92.3
100.7
102.3
115.3
140.8
170.2
191.9
198.6
216.4

50.9
63.8
68.0
57.9
55.3
72.0
95.8
111.2
118.6
103.2
104.9

384.1
410.3

307.8

317.5

109.5
112.6

198.2
204.9

455.7
475.5
486.0
468.9

330.0
341.3
353.0
360.2

119.6
127.0
132.7
139.6

414.8
431.5
443.3

357.0
352.2
344.2

141.4
143.6
141.3

1980: HI
IV
1981: I

1982: I

n
mr.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analj




Total

40.5
44.1
51.0
55.9
55.4
58.8
64.4
78.7
98.3
110.5
129.7

195.0
229.8
228.7
206.1
257.9
324.1
386.6
423.0
402.3
471.5

166.4

IV

Structures

107.9
121.0
143.3
156.6
157.7
174.1
205.2
248.9
290.2
309.2
346.1

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

n
m

Total

Producers'
durable
equipment

Change ii business
mven tones

Residential fix ed investment

Nonresit ential fixed IIP/estment
Period

Nonfarm
structures

Farm
structures

Producers'
durable

Total

Nonfarm

65.6
54.8
52.4
68.8
92.0
107.0
114.0
98.3
99.7

0.7
.7
.7
1.3
1.0
1.1
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.9
2.1

1.3
1.5
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.9
3.0
3.2

7.7
10.2
18.5
14.1
-6.9
11.8
23.0
26.5
14.3
-10.0
20.5

9.6
15.2
16.0
-10.5
13.9
21.9
25.4
8.6
-5.7
15.0

97.6
110.5

93.5
105.4

1.0
2.0

3.0
3.1

— 21.2
17.7

-15.4
-12.3

210.4
214.3
220.2
220.6

113.6
109.5
101.2
95.5

109.1
104.7
95.6
89.4

1.3
1.6
2.4
2.9

3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2

12.2
24.6

31.8
13.2

10.0
19.3
24.6
6.0

215.6
208.6
203.0

93.4
95.5
94.3

87.9
89.6
88.7

2.4
2.8
2.4

3.1
3.2
3.2

35.6
-16.2
4.7

-36.0
15.0
3.7

48.9
61.5

6.4

EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT—NONFARM
BUSINESS
According to the Commerce Department October-November survey, nonfarm business spending for new plant and
equipment for the year 1982 is expected to be 0.5 percent below 1981. Spending in 1981 was 8.7 percent above
1980. Small increases in spending are planned for the first 2 quarters of 1983.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
500

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

400
TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT

40

30

30
1975

1976

1979

1978

1980

1981

1982

1983

J/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Plan t and equip ment
Period

Total

Plant

Equipment
Total

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982 4
1981: HI

IV

1982: I

n
m. 4
IV

1983: I 44

n.

Starts of
plant and

Nonraanu[facturmg

V anufacturin g
Durable
goods

Nondurable

Total

Mining

Transportation

Public
utilities

19.83
19.98
22.37
26.79
29.95
33.96
35.44
38.40
41.62

Communication
and
other 2

ment
projects,
manufacturing 3

47.79
46.23
49.30
56.54
68.66
79.26
81.79
86.33
86.42

23.30
21.80
23.51
26.90
32.02
34.83
36.99
41.06
41.43

61.24
56.51
59.38
77.40
88.16
112.98
123.32
135.19

Trade
and
services 1

156.98
157.71
171.45
198.08
231.24
270.46
295.63
321.49
319.99

64.29
65.21
71.20
80.31
92.70
105.73
117.55
133.46

92.69
92.50
100.25
117.77
138.54
164.73
178.08
188.04

53.21
54.92
59.95
69.22
79.72
98.68
115.81
126.79
122.67

27.44
26.33
28.47
34.04
40.43
51.07
58.91
61.84
57.95

25.76
28.59
31.47
35.18
39.29
47.61
56.90
64.95
64.72

103.78
102.79
111.50
128.87
151.52
171.77
179.81
194.70
197.32

4.62
6.10
7.44
9.24
10.21

11.38
13.51
16.86
16.05

8.23
8.68
8.89
9.40
10.68
12.35
12.09
12.05
11.80

328.25
327.83

136.40
136.67

191.85
191.17

130.11
126.91

62.58
60.78

67.53
66.14

198.13
200.92

17.55
16.81

11.61
13.12

39.55
39.74

87.55
88.33

41.89
42.92

33.33
33.68

327.72
323.22
315.79
315.21

139.49
137.95
135.14

188.23
185.28
180.65

128.32
123.77
119.46
120.50

60.84
59.03
57.14
55.80

67.48
64.74
62.32
64.70

199.40
199.46
196.33
194.71

17.60
16.56
14.63
15.56

11.99
12.32
11.28
11.82

40.12
41.40
43.38
41.66

87.80

88.85
87.31
82.01

41.89
40.33
39.73
43.65

27.73
29.03
25.61

121.43
123.42

57.90
58.30

63.54
65.12

194.97
196.58

16.18
17.33

10.63
11.66

40.76
40.30

85.87
85.87

41.53
41.43

316.40
320.00

'Wholesale and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and personal, business, and professional services.
2
"Other" consists of construction; social services and membership organizations; and forestry,
fisheries, and agricultural services.

10



3
4

Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during given period.
Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late October and November 1982, cor-

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE
Seasonally adjusted employment fell 61,000 in November and unemployment rose 436,000.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

1974

1982

*lfi YEARS OF AGE AND OVER.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADViSERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted]

Civilian € mployment
Period

1976
1977
1978'
1979
1980
1981

Noninstitutional
population

158,294
161,166
164,027
166,951
169,848
172,272

Civilian
employment

88,752
92,017
96,048
98,824
99,303
100,397

ployment

7,406
6,991
6,202
6,137
7,637
8,273

Total labor
force
(including
Armed
Forces)

labor force

98,302
101,142
104,368
107,050
109,042
110,812

96,158
99,009
102,251
104,962
106,940
108,670

Unemp oyment

15 weeks

Labor
force
participation rate2
(percent)

7,406
6,991
6,202
6,137
7,637
8,273

2,366
1,942
1,414
1,241
1,871
2,285

62.1
62.8
63.6
64.1
64.2
64.3

Nonagri
Total

88,752
92,017
96,048
98,824
99,303
100,397

U nadjusted

AgriculTotal

3,331
3,283
3,387
3,347
3,364
3,368

Part-time
for
economic1
reasons

85,421
88,734
92,661
95,477
95,938
97,030

Seasonally adjus ted

3,334
3,369
3,298
3,373
4,064
4,499

Total

•

1981: Nov
Dec

173,155
173,330

100,502
99,562

8,676
9,013

111,430
111,348

109,272
109,184

100,172
99,613

3,372
3,209

96,800
96,404

5,026
5,288

9,100
9,571

2,364
2,372

64.4
64.2

1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Get
Nov

173,495
173,657
173,843
174,020
174,201
174,364
174,544
174,707
174,889
175,069
175,238

97,831
97,946
98,471
98,858
99,957
100,683
101,490
101,177
99,851
99,825
99,379

10,183
10,378
10,290
9,957
9,957
10,886
11,036
10,710
10,695
10,942
11,476

111,038
111,333
111,521
111,824
112,841
112,364
112,702
112,840
113,178
112,832
113,199

108,879
109,165
109,346
109,648
110,666
110,191
110,522
110,644
110,980
110,644
111,019

99,581
99,590
99,492
99,340
100,117
99,764
99,732
99,839
99,720'
99,093
99,032

3,411
3,373
3,349
3,309
3,488
3,357
3,460
3,435
3,368
3,426
3,470

96,170
96,217
96,144
96,032
96,629
96,406
96,272
96,404
96,352
95,667
95,563

5,071
5,563
5,717
5,834
5,763
5,444
5,492
5,648
6,600
6,574
6,484

9,298
9,575
9,854
10,307
10,549
10,427
10,790
10,805
11,260
11,551
11,987

2,399
2,724
2,954
3,015
3,286
3,673
3,580
3,631
3,870
4,153
4,547

64.0
64.1
64.2
64.3
64.8
64.4
64.6
64.6
64.7
64.5
64.6

1
Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc.
2
Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over.




"Data beginning 1978 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of revisions in the household
told survey, which added about 250,000 to labor force and to employment.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

11

SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
In November, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 10.8 percent from 10.4 percent in October.
PERCENT' (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

25

25

10

1978

1982

•UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Unemployment rate (pf rcent of civi ian labor for ?e in group)

I y sex and ag e
Period

(all
civilian
workers)

Men
20 years
and over

Women
20 years
and over

6.0
5.7
6.4
6.8

5.1
6.3
6.7

7.1
7.9

7.2
7.4

21.4
21.5

7,5
7.6
7.9
8.2
8.4
8.7
8.8
8.9
9.6
9.8
10.1

7.2
7.6
7.9
8.3
8.3
8.1
8.4
8.2
8.3
8.6
9.1

21.7
22.3
21.9
23.0
23.1
22.3
24.1
24.0
23.7
24.0
24.2

7.4
7.0

Nov
Dec

8.3
8.8

1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May

8.5
8.8
9.0
9.4
9.5
9.5
9.8
9.8
10.1
10.4
10.8

June
July

Aug
Sept

Oct
Nov

White

7.0
6.2
5.2

5.9
5.2
4.3
4.2
5.9
6.3

1981:

Both
sexes
16-19
years

19.0
17.8
16.4
16.1
17.8
19.6

7.7
7.1
6.1
5.8
7.1
7.6

1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

By

1
Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons i
cent of potentially available labor force hours.

12



By selected

race

Black and
other

Experienced
wage and
salary
workers

Married
men,
spouse
present

gro Lips

Women

who

maintain
families

Pull-time
workers

Part-time
workers

Labor
force
time lost
(percent) '

3.6
2.8
2.8
4.2
4.3

10.1
9.4
8.5
8.3
9.2
10.4

7.3
6.6
5.6
5.3
6.9
7.3

10.1
9.9
9.0
8.8
8.8
9.4

8.3

13.1
14.2

7.3
6.6
5.6
5.5
6.9
7.3

7.4
7.7

15.2
15.7

8.0
8.5

5.2
5.7

10.8
10.5

8.1
8.7

10.2
9.2

9.5
10.1

7.5
7.7
7.9
8.4
8.5
8.4
8.7
8.6
9.0
9.3
9.7

15.1
15.9
16.6
16.9
17.2
17.1
17.3
17.5
18.2
18.5
18.6

8.2
8.4
8.8
9.2
9.3
9.2
9.4
9.3
9.8
10.1
10.5

5.3
5.3
5.5
6.0
6.1
6.5
6.6
6.7
7.3
7.6
7.7

10.4
10.2
10.6
11.5
11.8
12.4
12.0
11.6
12.4
11.2
12.5

8.4
8.5
8.9
9.2
9.2
9.4
9.5
9.6
10.1
10.5
10.7

9.6
10.8
10.0
10.9
10.5
9.8
11.4
10.3
10.5
10.1
11.4

10.0
9.8
10.4
10.4
11.1
10.2
10.7
10.7
11.7
12.1
12.4

13.1
13.1
11.9
11.3

4.2

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

7.6
6.5
6.3
7.9
8.5

SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE PROGRAMS
In November, the percentage of unemployed persons who had been out of work for more than 15 weeks continued
to rise, and the percentage out of work for less than 15 weeks fell again.
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION"
70

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION
70

40

30

-

20

10

-

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Percent distribution of unemplo pment by
l
dura ion

Yj
,

Period

(thousands)

Less
than 5
weeks

5-14
weeks

15-26
weeks

27
weeks
and
over

Percent distribution of unemployment by
rea on *
Job
losers

Job
leavers

Reentrants

New
entrants

State
programs
i

Insured
unemployment

Initial
claims

Insured
unemployment, all
regular
programs
(unadjusted) 2

Special
unemployment
benefit
claims
(unadjusted) 3

1Weekly avei•age, thousar ds

13.1
12.4
11.5
13.8
13.6

14.7
10.4
8.7
10.7
14.0

45.3
41.7
42.9
51.7
51.6

13.0
14.1
14.3
11.7
11.2

28.1
29.9
29.4
25.2
25.4

13.6
14.3
13.3
11.4
11.9

2,655
2,359
2,434
3,350
3,048

375
346
388
488
460

3,308
2,645
2,592
3,837
3,410

31.7
32.0

13.5
12.6

12.5
12.6

53.6
56.1

10.0
9.7

25.5
23.5

10.9
10.7

3,428
3,583

541
567

3,228
3,935

32.9
31.9
31.2
32.1
31.7
32.4
29.5
30.4
31.3
30.3
29.7

13.0
15.1
16.3
14.7
15.6
17.1
16.7
16.7
16.1
16.6
18.3

12.8
13.4
13.7
14.7
15.8
17.3
16.7
16.8
17.5
19.2
19.2

56.7
54.3
57.4
57.4
56.9
59.6
57.4
58.1
61.1
63.4
62.0

9.1
10.2
9.0
9.1
8.4
7.7
7.5
7.4
6.6
6.7
6.5

22.7
24.0
22.9
23.0
23.5
22.4
23.5
22.3
20.8
18.8
21.3

11.5
11.6
10.7
10.5
11.1
10.3
11.6
12.2
11.4
11.1
10.2

3,546
3,484
3,736
4,022
4,032
4,140
3,938
4,101
4,420
4,672
4,680

562
517
594
579
595
555
516
611
670
676
617

4,681
4,723
4,892
4,760
4,387
4,328
4,495
4,398
4,282
4,391
4,635

1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

6,991
6,202
6,137
7,637
8,273

41.8
46.2
48.1
43.1
41.7

30.5
31.0
31.7
32.3
30.7

1981: Nov
Dec

9,100
9,571

42.3
42.8

1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May

9,298
9,575
9,854
10,307
10,549
10,427
10,790
10,805
11,260
11,551
11,987

41.3

June ....
July

Aug
Sept

Oct
Nov
1
Detail
2

39.6
38.8
38.5
37.0
33.2
37.2
36.1
35.1
33.8
32.8

may not add to 100 percent because of rounding.
Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen
(UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RK) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended
benefit programs. Does not include FSB (Federal supplemental benefits) and SUA (special unemployment assistance).




572

3

FSB and SUA. These programs started January 1975 and regular reporting began March J975.

Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration).

13

NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
In November, total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey fell 163,000 from its October
level.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE]

22
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE

90
20

ALL NONAGRICULTURAL
ESTABLISHMENTS

SERVICES

80

70
GOVERNMENT

60

„..--••"""

SERVICE-PRODUCING
SERVICE-PI
iKini i
INDUSTRIES

***

22
MANUFACTURING

50
20

CONSTRUCTION
GOODS-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES

30

.^1

20
1979

1978

1981

1980

1978

1982

1979

1980

1981

'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOUfiCEi DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1982

COUNCiL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of wage and salary workers;1 seasonally adjusted]

Period

employraent

Service-] rodueing ind ustries

Goods- producing im ustries

Total
nonagri-

y anufaeturing
Total 2

Construction

Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable
goods

Total

Transportation and
public
utilities

Wholesale and
retail
trade

Gover nment

Finance,
insurance,
and real
estate

Services
Federal

State
and
local

1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

82,471
86,697
89,823
90,406
91,105

24,346
25,585
26,461
25,658
25,481

3,851
4,229
4,463
4,346
4,176

19,682
20,505
21,040
20,285
20,173

11,597
12,274
12,760
12,187
12,117

8,086
8,231
8,280
8,098
8,056

58,125
61,113
63,363
64,748
65,625

4,713
4,923
5,136
5,146
5,157

18,516
19,542
20,192
20,310
20,551

4,467
4,724
4,975
5,160
5,301

15,303
16,252
17,112
17,890
18,592

2,727
2,753
2,773
2,866
2,772

12,399
12,919
13,174
13,375
13,253

1981: Nov
Dec

90,996
90,642

25,176
24,908

4,071
4,026

19,903
19,676

11,901
11,724

8,002
7,952

65,820
65,734

5,150
5,128

20,623
20,524

5,324
5,331

18,815
18,834

2,749
2,756

13,159
13,161

1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Septr....
Oof

90,460
90,459
90,304
90,083
90,166
89,839
89,535
89,312
89,267
88,878
88,715

24,684
24,631
24,450
24,289
24,255
23,994
23,840
23,657
23,530
23,242
23,086

3,966
3,974
3,934
3,938
3,988
3,940
3,927
3,899
3,883
3,854
3,850

19,517
19,454
19,319
19,169
19,115
18,930
18,813
18,672
18,572
18,323
18,185

11,622
11,575
11,490
11,375
11,332
11,203
11,133
10,993
10,900
10,663
10,563

7,895
7,879
7,829
7,794
7,783
7,727
7,680
7,679
7,672
7,660
7,622

65,776
65,828
65,854
65,794
65,911
65,845
65,695
65,655
65,737
65,636
65,629

5,125
5,115
5,100
5,094
5,101
5,078
5,044
5,025
5,031
5,009
5,009

20,630
20,670
20,655
20,584
20,652
20,595
20,615
20,550
20,492
20,437
20,388

5,326
5,326
5,336
5,335
5,342
5,352
5,359
5,360
5,367
5,358
5,364

18,831
18,867
18,904
18,929
18,963
18,988
19,042
19,048
19,084
19,087
19,127

2,741
2,737
2,736
2,730
2,728
2,739
2,737
2,739
2,734
2,723
2,726

13,123
13,113
13,123
13,122
13,125
13,093
12,898
12,933
13,029
13,022
13,015

Nov".....

putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample
of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
Includes mining, not shown separately.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

14



AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Average gi oss hourlv
earn ings

Average weekly
hours
Period

Manufa cturing

Total
private
nonagrieultural '

Total

Total
private
nonagrieultural '

Overtime

Adjusts d hourly earnin gs index — total private
nonagnc ultural 2
Ind ex,

Manufacturing

Percent chang e from a year
earli r 4 s

-100
Current
dollars

1977
dollars 3

Current
dollars

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

36.5
36.1
36.1
36.0
35.8
35.7
35.3
35.2

40.7
40.0
39.5
40.1
40.3
40.4
40.2
39.7
39.8

3.8
3.3
2.6
3.1
3.5
3.6
3.3
2.8
2.8

$3.94
4.24
4.53
4.86
5.25
5.69
6.16
6.66
7.25

$4.09
4.42
4.83
5.22
5.68
6.17
6.70
7.27
7.99

86.7
92.9
100.0
108.1
116.8
127.3
138.9

101.1
98.3
97.6
99.0
100.0
100.5
97.4
93.5
92.6

1981: Nov
Dec

35.1
35.0

39.3
39.1

2.5
2.4

7.45
7.46

8.20
8.20

143.0
143.5

92.3
92.3

6.2
8.0
8.4
7.2
7.6
8.1
8.0
9.0
9.1
8.4
8.2

1982:

34.4
35.0
34.9
34.9
35.0
34.9
34.9
34.8
34.8
34.7
34.6

37.6
39.4
39.0
39.0
39.1
39.2
39.2
39.0
38.8
38.8
38.9

2.3
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3

7.52
7.53
7.54
7.59
7.65
7.67
7.71
7.74
7.72
7.76
7.78

8.38
8.34
8.37
8.44
8.48
8.52
8.56
8.57
8.56
8.56
8.62

144.9
145.0
145.4
146.3
147.7
148.1
148.9
149.9
150.1
150.8
151.0

92.9
92.8
93.3
93.7
93.7
93.1
93.0
93.2
93.2
93.1
93.2

8.3
7.5
7.2
7.2
7.3
7.1
7.1
6.6
6.1
6.2
5.5

36.9

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July

Aug

Sepf
Ocf
Nov"

74.1
80.0

1977 dollars

-0.1
-2.8

-.7
1.4
1.0
.5
-3.1

4.0
-1.0

-.9
.4
.1
.1
.6
.8
.8
.2
.8
.8
1.2
1.1
1.0

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Percent el ange from
a year earlier,
total private nonagricultural 5

Averaj?e gross weekly ea rnmgs
Period

Total private
nonagnc ultural l
Current dollars

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981: Kov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sepf.
Ocf
Nov"

Manufacturing

1977 dollars 3

Wholesale and
retail trade

Current dollars

1977 dollars

Current dollars

$145.39
154.76
163.53
175.45
189.00
203.70
219.91
235.10
255.20

$198.35
190.12
184.16
186.85
189.00
189.31
183.41
172.74
170.13

$166.46
176.80
190.79
209.32
228.90
249.27
269.34
288.62
318.00

$235.89
249.25
266.08
283.73
295.65
318.69
342.99
367.78
398.52

$111.76
119.02
126.45
133.79
142.52
153.64
164.96
176.46
190.95

6.2
6.4
5.7
7.3
7.7
7.8
8.0
6.9
8.5

0.0
-4.1

261.50
261.10

168.82
167.91

322.26
320.62

416.64
415.14

194.53
194.56

-1.8
-2.4

258.69
263.55
263.15
264.89
267.75
267.68
269.08
269.35
268.66
269.27
269.19

165.93
168.62
168.90
169.69
169.89
168.14
167.97
167.61
166.87
166.32
166.27

315.09
328.60
326.43
329.16
331.57
333.98
335.55
334.23
332.13
332.13
335.32

405.50
420.71
420.29
421.77
432.75
423.57
430.03
428.46
420.78
425.88
424.86

193.05
195.20
195.23
195.89
198.40
198.42
198.74
199.69
200.63
201.61
201.29

7.3
6.1
3.7
6.2
4.8
4.5
5.2
4.9
4.7
4.3
4.0
3.5
2.9

'Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.
Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing.
'Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index on a 1977=100 hase.
Revised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978.
3

Construction

3.1
1.5
1.2
.2
3.1
-5.8

1.5

4.1
-1.1

1.6
-1.7

1.2
-1.9
-1.4
-1.4

-.9
-1.4

1.5

* Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places.
Based on unadjusted data.

5

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

15
13-372 0 - 8 2 - 2




PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR
Output p ?r hour of
all p« rsons

Period

Hours of 2all
pers cms

Out jut '

Compens ation per
hoiir 3

Unit labor
CO st

Real compensation
per h our 4

Implie t price
5
defla tor

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

89.6
90.6

59.4
63.4

59.3
63.4

63.2

60.4
63.3

95.9

91.5
93.5
96.6
97.8
96.4

67.5
69.5
71.5
75.3
84.4

67.6
69.7
71.7
75.3
84.5

66.0
69.0
71.3
75.3
82.4

66.3
69.3
71.3
74.0
81.6

86.0
93.0
100.0
108.6
118.8

96.3
98.9
100.0
100.9
99.4

96.8
99.0
100.0
100.9
99.2

90.5
95.1
100.0
108.0
119.5

90.8
95.1
100.0
108.0
119.6

90.5
94.7
100.0
107.5
117.2

90.0
94.6
100.0
107.1
116.5

131.4
144.1

130.9
143.6

96.7
96.0

96.3
95.7

132.9
143.1

133.0
143.8

128.3
140.4

128.3
140.8

107.0
108.2

133.1
136.1

132.6
135.7

96.9
96.2

96.5
95.9

134.7
137.0

134.7
136.8

129.9
132.8

129.9
132.7

108.3
108.3
108.5
107.5

108.8
109.0
109.1
108.1

140.0
142.5
145.6
148.2

139.5
142.0
145.1
147.7

96.2
96.4
95.7
95.6

96.0
96.0
95.4
95.3

139.0
141.5
144.2
147.9

139.0
141.9
145.1
149.0

136.5
138.8
141.9
144.6

136.5
138.9
142.3
145.5

106.3
106.1
105.4

106.8
106.7

150.9
153.4
155.7

150.4
152.7
155.1

96.5
97.1
96.8

96.3
96.6
96.4

150.9
152.9
153.6

151.6
153.5
154.5

146.0
147.5
149.0

146.6
148.1
149.8

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

1968
1969

85.3
85.5

86.8
86.5

76.8
79.0

76.6
78.8

90.1
92.5

88.2
91.1

50.7
54.2

51.5
54.8

88.3
89.6

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

86.2
89.2
92.4
94.7
92.5

86.8
89.7
93.0
95.3
92.9

78.4
80.7
86.1
91.8

91.0
90.5
93.2
96.8
97.3

89.8
89.5
92.3
96.2
96.7

58.2
62.0
66.1
71.3
78.0

58.7
62.5
66.7
71.7
78.5

90.8
92.8
95.7
97.3

89.9

78.0
80.3
85.8
91.7
89.8

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

94.5
97.6
100.0
100.6
99.6

94.7
97.8
100.0
100.6
99.3

88.2
93.8
100.0
105.5
107.8

87.8
93.7
100.0
105.7
108.0

93.3

96.0
100.0
104.9
108.2

92.7
95.8
100.0
105.0
108.7

85.5
92.9
100.0
108.6
119.1

1980
1981

98.9
100.7

98.5
99.9

106.2
108.9

106.3
108.6

107.4
108.2

108.0
108.7

98.9
99.3

98.4
99.2

105.3
107.0

105.3
107.3

106.5
107.7

100.7
100.7
101.0
100.2

100.4
100.0
100.0
99.1

109.1
109.1
109.6
107.8

109.2
109.0
109.1
107.1

100.0
100.3
101.4

99.2
99.4
100.4

106.3
106.4
106.9

106.0
106.1
106.4

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

19 77 = 100; juarterly c ata seasoirally adjus ted

1980:
1981:

HI
IV
I

n
m

IV

1982: I

n
m

106.0

60.2

Pe 'cent change; quarte rly data at seasonal] y adjusted annual rates

1968
1969

3.3
.2

3.3
q

5.1
2.9

5.3
2.9

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

.8
3.6
3.5
2.6
-2.4

.3
3.3
3.7
2.4
-2.5

-.8
3.0
6.6
6.6
-2.0

-1.0
2.9
6.9
6.8
-2.1

-1.6

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

2.2
3.3
2.4
.6
-.9

2.0
3.2
2.2
.6
-1.3

-2.0
6.4
6.6
5.5
2.3

1980
1981

-.7
1.8

-.9
1.4

2.6
2.0

1980: m
IV
1981: I

n
m
IV

1982: I

n
m

7.8
7.0

7.5
6.5

3.5
1.5

3.2
1.1

4.4
6.7

4.1
6.8

4.0
4.9

4.0
4.7

3.0
3.9
.4

-.4
3.1
4.3
.5

7.3
6.6
6.5
8.0
9.4

7.0
6.6
6.7
7.6
9.4

1.3
2.2
3.1
1.6
-1.4

1.0
2.2
3.3
1.3
— 1.4

6.4
2.9
2.9
5.3
12.1

6.6
3.2
2.9
5.0
12.2

4.5
4.4
3.4
5.5
9.5

4.8
4.5
3.0
3.8
10.2

-2.2
6.7
6.7
5.7
2.2

-4.1
3.0
4.1
4.9
3.2

—4.1
3.4
4.4
5.0
3.5

9.6
8.6
7.7
8.6
9.7

9.6
8.1
7.5
8.6
9.3

.5
2.6
1.2
.9
1.4

.4
2.2
1.0
.9
-1.7

7.3
5.1
5.1
8.0
10.7

7.5
4.7
5.2
8.0
10.7

9.8
4.7
5.6
7.5
9.0

10.3
5.0
5.7
7.1
8.8

-1.5
2.5

-1.5
2.2

-.7
.7

-.7
.7

10.4
9.6

10.2
9.7

-2.8
-.7

-2.9
-.7

11.2
7.7

11.2
8.1

9.4
9.5

10.2
9.7

3.4
3.1

2.1
6.8

2.7
7.8

K

4.7

-.7
4.6

10.1
9.4

10.4
9.8

2.2
-3.1

2.5
-2.8

7.3
7.2

6.8
6.5

10.0
9.3

8.6
8.9

5.6
.0
1.1
-2.9

4.9
-1.3
-.3
gg

7.9
— .1
1.9
-6.4

7.2
-.8
.3
-7.1

.8
-3.6

2.2
.5
.6
-3.7

11.7
7.5
9.0
7.4

11.8
7.1
9.0
7.3

.2
.5
-2.6
4

.4
.1
-2.6
-.5

5.7
7.5
7.8
10.6

6.6
8.6
9.3
11.2

11.6
6.6
9.3
8.0

12.1
7.1
10.2
9.2

-1.0
1.4
4.2

.6
.8
4.0

-5.5
.6
1.7

-4.2
.6
1.2

-4.5
-.8
-2.4

7.3
6.9
6.1

7.7
6.1
6.6

3.9
2.2

4.3
1.4
-.9

8.4
5.5
1.8

7.1
5.2
2.6

3.8
4.3
4.1

3.3
4.0
4.7

1.7
2.6

2.0
3.2

-1.3
Fj

2.1
1

-4.7
1

-2.7

1
Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars.
2
Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and
unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data.
3
Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private
benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed.
Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index.

16



5

-1.4

Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.

NOTS.—Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore
may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Industrial production fell 0.4 percent in November following a 0.8 percent decline in October. The index for
November was 7.3 percent below its year earlier level.
INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE)
180

INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE)

TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

180

UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION

160

'UTILITIES

140

\
\
MINING
120

120

I I l IJJJJJJJ
1978

1980

1979

1981

1982

100
180

1978

MANUFACTUR NG PRODUCTION

1979

1980

1981

1982

PERCENT* (RATIO SCALE)
100

MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE

120

1978

1982

1978

1981

1982

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

COUNCd OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Seasonally adjusted]

Industry pro( .uetion indexes , 1967 = 100

To tal

indu s trial
prodi ction
Period
Index,
1967 = 100

1967 proportion
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981: Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug r
Sepf.
Ocf
NOT"
1
Output
3

'.

100.00
117.8
130.5
138.2
146.1
152.5
147.0
151.0
146.3
143.4
140.7
142.9
141.7
140.2
139.2
138.7
138.8
138.4
137.3
136.2
135.6

as percent of capacity.
Annual data are averages of four monthly indexes.




Capacity u tilization ratt , percent *

Manufacturing

Percent
change
from year
earlier

-8.9
10.8

5.9
5.7
4.4
-3.6
2.7
-1.9
-4.7
-7.1
-5.9
-6.8
-7.7
-8.8
-9.3
-9.8
-9.9
-9.4
-8.7
-7.3

Manufa £turing
Mining

Total

87.95
116.3
130.3
138.4
146.8
153.6
146.7
150.4
145.0
142.0
138.5
140.9
140.1
138.7
137.9
137.7
138.1
138.0
137.1
135.6
134.9

Durable

Utilities

Nondurable

51.98

35.97

109.3
122.3
130.0
139.7
146.4
136.7
140.5
134.4
131.3
127.1
129.3
128.2
126.7
126.1
125.5
125.9
124.9
123.4
121.3
120.3

126.4
141.8
150.5
156.9
164.0
161.2
164.8
160.3
157.4
155.1
157.8
157.3
156.1
155.0
155.3
155.7
156.9
156.9
156.3
156.0

6.36
112.8
114.2
118.2
124.0
125.5
132.7
142.2
143.3
142.6
144.5
142.4
138.1
134.1
128.9
123.5
120.1
116.9
115.0
116.6
116.2

Federal
Reserve
series

Commerce
series 2

Materials
(Federal
Reserve
series)

5.69
146.0
151.7
156.5
161.4
166.0
168.3
169.1
168.9
168.2
171.8
170.4
170.0
171.0
170.9
169.4
167.7
168.5
167.6
168.2
167.2

72.9
79.5
81.9
84.4
85.7
79.1
78.5
74.8
73.1
71.1
72.2
71.6
70.8
70.2
70.0
70.0
69.8
69.2

68.3
67.8

77
81
83
84
83
78
76
72
72
71
69

73.4
81.1
82.7
85.6
87.4
80.0
79.9
75.5
72.4
71.4
72.9
71.8
70.5
69.4
68.8
68.5
68.2
67.8
67.2
66.7

Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Department of Commerce
(Bureau of Economic Analysis).

1?

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND
SELECTED MANUFACTURES
[1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted]
Prod ucts
Intermedia be products

Final p roducts
Period

C onsumer good s
Total
Total

1967 proportion

47.82

27.68

1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981: Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May

115.7
124.4
125.1
118.2
127.6
135.9
142.2
147.2
145.3
149.5
147.2
146.3
142.8
144.1
143.3
142.6
142.2
142.1
142.5
141.2
139.8
138.6
138.1

124.4
131.5
128.9
124.0
137.1
145.3
149.1
150.8
145.4
147.9
144.0
142.0
139.6
141.8
141.5
142.1
143.6
144.8
145.8
144.1
143.3
142.3
141.6

June
July

Aug r
Sept '

Ocf
Nov"

Durable
goods

7.89
133.8
146.2
135.3
121.4
141.9
154.0
159.2
155.8
136.7
140.5
129.7
123.2
120.1
125.9
128.1
130.7
132.6
134.6
137.3
132.9
131.3
127.0
126.0

Materials

Equip ment
Nondurable
goods

Construction
supplies

Total
Total

Business

19.79

20.14

12.63

12.89

120.6
125.6
126.3
125.1
135.2
141.9
145.1
148.8
148.9
150.9
149.7
149.5
147.4
148.1
146.8
146.6
147.9
148.8
149.1
148.6
148.1
148.3
147.8

103.8
114.5
120.0
110.2
114.6
123.0
132.8
142.2
145.2
151.8
151.5
152.1
147.2
147.3
145.9
143.4
140.4
138.4
138.0
137.3
135.0
133.6
133.4

118.0
134.2
142.4
128.2
135.4
147.8
160.3
171.3
173.2
181.1
179.0
179.0
172.2
171.6
169.0
164.9
159.9
156.7
154.9
153.9
150.2
146.9
146.1

126.5
137.2
135.3
123.1
137.2
145.1
154.1
160.5
151.9
154.4
148.7
145.9
143.4
146.3
145.2
143.7
142.6
141.9
142.8
144.7
143.4
142.1
141.8

6.42
128.4
139.8
134.5
116.3
132.6
140.6
151.7
158.0
140.9
141.9
130.1
127.0
124.2
127.5
125.6
123.6
122.2
123.1
124.1
127.1
125.4
124.2
124.1

Supplementary
group:
Energy
total

39.29

12.23

122.3
133.9
132.4
115.5
131.7
138.6
148.3
156.4
147.6
151.6
144.6
139.0
137.2
140.4
138.5
136.2
134.3
133.5
133.0
132.8
132.2
131.2
130.4

125.2
128.3
125.5
125.5
129.1
132.9
135.4
137.9
137.7
137.4
137.2
136.7
139.5
138.9
137.6
136.7
136.5
136.2
136.4
134.8
133.3
134.7
133.4

[1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted]

}i endurable Tianufaeture s

Durable m inufactures
Transp >rtation
equipment

Primary metals
Period
Total

1967 proportion

1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981: Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July

Aug '
Sepf

Oct '
Nov '

6.57
112.1
126.7
123.1
96.4
109.7
111.1
119.9
121.3
102.3
107.9
96.6
89.6
89.7
88.5
83.0
76.4
75.2
72.8
72.9
72.9
73.3
72.4
70.1

Iron and
steel

4.21
107.1
122.3
119.8
95.8
104.8
103.8
113.2
113.2
92.4
99.8
87.2
79.2
79.6
78.5
73.0
65.1
62.4
58.0
58.1
57.4
56.5
55.2

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

18



Fabricated metal
products

5.93
112.1
124.7
124.2
109.9
123.9
131.0
141.6
148.5
134.1
136.4
130.2
126.1
120.7
121.4
121.1
119.1
115.8
115.0
115.5
114.3
112.2
109.9
109.3

Nonelectrical
machinery

9.15
116.0
133.7
140.1
125.1
134.5
143.6
153.6
163.7
162.8
171.2
167.9
167.4
160.9
160.0
157.3
153.7
150.0
147.4
147.1
147.2
144.1
141.1
138.6

Electrical
machinery
Total

8.05
122.2
143.1
143.8
116.5
134.8
145.4
159.4
175.0
172.8
178.4
175.7
170.7
168.2
172.9
172.6
172.2
170.9
170.8
170.3
169.7
167.0
166.1
165.6

9.37
108.2
118.3
108.7
97.4
111.1
122.2
132.5
135.4
116.9
116.1
106.1
103.7
96.6
102.0
104.4
105.9
110.0
111.6
112.7
107.0
105.3
100.6
99.7

Motor
vehicles
and parts

Lumber
and
products

4.50

1.64

135.8
148.8
128.2
111.1
142.0
161.1
169.9
159.9
119.0
122.3
105.5
100.4
90.4
98.6
105.6
110.7
119.8
124.0
127.2
116.7
113.5
103.0
101.2

120.8
126.0
116.2
107.6
123.2
131.2
136.3
136.9
119.3
119.1
104.7
104.8
99.2
104.9
103.5
106.2
110.6
112.2
116.9
120.3
120.2
118.4

Printing
Apparel
products

3.31
109.4
117.3
114.3
107.6
125.7
134.2
134.2
134.4
127.0
120.4
113.8
114.1
105.7

and

publish-

ing

4.72
112.7
118.2
118.2
113.3
122.5
127.6
131.5
136.9
139.6
144.2
143.4
145.3
145.6
146.4
145.9
144.2
143.8
142.6
143.9
145.3
144.3
142.4
142.8

Chemicals and
products

7.74
143.6
154.5
159.4
147.2
170.9
185.7
197.4
211.8
207.1
215.6
204.6

199.8
196.7
201.3
200.3

198.6
193.6
193.2
194.1
195.6
196.0
195.5

Foods

8.75
116.8
120.9
124.0
123.4
133.0
138.8
142.7
147.5
149.6
152.1
153.0
152.8
151.1
151.7
150.8
149.7
150.5
151.0
151.0
150.7
149.8

NEW CONSTRUCTION
Constraction contracts

Private
Period

Total new
construction
expenditures

Resiclential
Total

C
'1
and industrial

New housing
units

Total '

Federal,
State, and
local

Other

Total value
index
(1977=100)

2

Commercial
and industrial
floor space
(millions of
square feet)

E illions of dollars
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

135.9
151.1
173.8
205.6
230.4
230.7
238.2

95.1
112.0
135.7
159.7
181.6
175.7
185.2

46.5
60.5
81.0
93.4
99.0
87.3
86.6

34.4
47.3
65.7
75.8
78.6
63.1
62.7

20.8
19.9
22.5
29.6
39.9
43.8
51.3

27.8
31.5
32.2
36.7
42.7
44.7
47.4

66.0
79.0
100.0
114.0
122.0
107.0
107.0

40.9
39.1
38.2
45.9
48.8
55.1
53.0

Seasonally
adjusted

Seasonal 'y adjusted annual rates

555
592
739
977
1,059
904
906

Seasonally
adjusted
annual rates

1981:

Oct
Nov
Dec

230.8
230.0
228.8

180.0
178.1
176.6

78.2
76.2
75.8

53.4
50.4
49.4

53.2
54.0
53.0

48.6
47.9
47.7

50.8
51.9
52.2

101
92
112

891
849
848

1982:

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July

225.1
222.6
224.6
226.1
228.7
231.6
228.8
230.4
232.4
234.9

175.5
173.0
173.6
175.1
179.9
182.7
180.3
179.6
182.0
182.9

73.7
69.2
70.0
72.3
75.5
75.3
76.2
76.9
77.3
77.7

51.0
49.2
51.0
49.6
51.0
49.8
51.5
52.3
53.0
52.9

53.3
54.1
55.0
54.3
53.9
56.5
53.9
52.8
54.9
54.3

48.5
49.8
48.6
48.5
50.6
50.9
50.2
49.9
49.8
50.8

49.6
49.6
51.0
51.0
48.8
48.9
48.4
50.8
50.3
52.0

118
115
105
88
94
111
98
112
117
105
122

675
781
758
688
620
816
677
733
640
657
602

Aug
Sept
Oct "
Nov"

1
Includes nonhousebeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separateiy.
2
R W, Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971
for floor apace.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information
Company, F. W. Dodge Division.

NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES
[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]
New prh ate homes

New private housing units
Units started, by type of structure

Period
Total
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

1 unit

1,337.7
1,160.4
1,537.5
1,987.1
2,020.3
1,745.1
1,292.2
1,084.2

888.1
892.2
1,162.4
1,450.9
1,433.3
1,194.1
852.2
705.4

2-1 units

5 or more units

68.1
64.0
85.9
121.7
125.0
122.0
109.5
91.1

381.6
204.3
289.2
414.4
462.0
429.0
330.5
287.7

Units
authorized
1,074.4
939.2
1,296.2
1,690.0
1,800.5
1,551.8
1,190.6
985.5

Units
completed

Homes sold

Homes for
sale at end of
period *

1,728.5
1,317.2
1,377.2
1,657.1
1,867.5
1,870.8
1,501.6
1,265.7

519
549
646
819
817
709
545
436

346
313
353
402
414
3
398

1,067
1,114

388
456
399
376
380
335
395
369
352
382
489
487

282
272
275
274
269
264
259
254
250
248
248
243

336
272

Vacancy rate
for rental
housing units
(percent) 2
6.2
6.0
5.6
5.2
5.0
5.4
5.4
5.0

Seasonal y adjusted annu al rates
1981:

Nov

Dec
1982:

Jan
Peb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July r
Aug T

Septr T.
Oct
Nov "

860
882
885
945
931
882
1,066

908
1,193
1,033
1,129
1,129
1,428

554
550
592
568
621
566
631
621
628
645
677
705
872

81
74
70
84
67
64
86
83
102
88
92
62
97

225
258
223
293
243
252
349
204
463
300
360
362
459

1
Seasonally adjusted.
'Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable
with earlier data.
9
New aeries beginning March 1979.




743
797
803
792
851
879
944
929
1,062

888
1,003
1,172
1,243

1,063

920
926
962
1,138

939
1,007
1,002

925
1,117

5.0

5.3
5.1
5.3

NOTE.—Units authorized beginning 1978 relate to 16,000 permit-issuing places; data for
1973-77 are for 14,000 places.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

19

BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Total and Trade
Business sales fell 2 percent in October and inventories fell slightly. According to the advance survey, retail sales
rose 2 percent in November following a rise of % percent in October.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
600

BILLIONS Of DOLLARS'(RATIO SCALE)
140 f

550

130

:h

500
450
400
350

300

250 -

200

150 -

100
1979

1978

1980

1981

1982

1982

1978

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Total bi siness 1

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Inventory-s ales ratio 4

Be aft

Wholesale

Inventories 3

Sales 2
Period
Sales

2

inyen

Sales

2

Total

Durable
goods
stores

Nondurable goods
stores

Total

Durable
goods
stores

Retail

Nondurable goods
stores

Millions of dollars, seasonally iidjusted

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

177,625
182,230
204,277
229,623
259,046
294,573
321,504
350,622

285,807
288,375
318,544
351,176
397,090
444,132
482,570
519,394

47,748
46,623
50,694
55,987
65,036
76,109
87,931
97,839

56,948
56,697
64,078
72,311
83,891
93,870
104,441
110,549

45,082
49,012
54,781
60,435
67,057
74,529
79,325
86,566

14,118
15,247
18,150
20,724
23,313
25,401
24,716
27,216

30,964
33,765
36,631
39,711
43,744
49,128
54,609
59,350

71,067
71,744
79,273
89,530
102,520
109,228
114,114
125,693

32,861
33,356
37,841
43,135
49,914
53,265
53,747
58,835

1981: Oct
Nov
Dec

346,605
344,943
341,330

518,241
521,574
519,394

96,235
96,768
95,144

108,491
110,173
110,549

86,413
86,733
86,572

26,354
26,436
26,206

60,059
60,297
60,366

125,364
125,618
125,693

59,014
58,907
58,835

1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept r
Oct r
Nov"

334,579
340,571
342,121
339,835
349,096
346,126
344,603
339,464
339,470
331,844

516,256
513,906
513,054
515,074
510,517
512,981
513,387
514,554
515,399
515,021

94,236
95,010
97,361
95,427
97,427
96,565
93,776
92,343
90,866
89,513

110,971
108,823
109,657
112,913
111,701
113,515
113,534
113,101
113,852
114,043

85,320
87,418
87,242
88,294
90,841
88,042
89,445
88,502
89,326
89,858
91,911

25,316
26,696
26,958
27,984
29,416
27,175
27,403
26,668
27,498
27,761
29,587

60,004
60,722
60,284
60,310
61,425
60,867
62,042
61,834
61,828
62,097
62,324

124,131
123,395
123,332
123,175
122,367
124,351
124,939
127,151
129,073
128,719

57,807
56,957
56,803
56,663
55,984
57,346
58,246
60,075
61,628
60,601

J
2

The term "business" also includes manufacturing (see page 21).
Monthly average for year and total for month.
Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted.

3

20




38,206
38,388
41,432
46,395
52,606
55,963
60,367
66,858
66,350
66,711
66,858
66,324
66,438
66,529
66,512
66,383
67,005
66,693
67,076
67,445
68,118

1.45
1.57
1.48

1.46
1.44
1.43
1.45
1.43
1.50
1.51
1.52
1.54
1.51
1.50
1.52
1.46
1.48
1.49
1.52
1.52
1.55

1.48
1.44

1.38
1.40
1.43
1.44
1.41
1.39
1.45
1.45
1.45
1.45
1.41
1.41
1.40
1.35
1.41
1.40
1.44
1.44
1.43

4
For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly
data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month.

Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).

MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
In October, manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders fell. In November, according to advance estimates,
durable goods shipments and new orders rose.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
AAJ
180 — SHIPME NTS
TOTAL

—

160

_ ——-

r
rj*s* ~~~"

^

,-.-••"

J^'l

•"^ly*

L~-'"

TOTAL

200

„........— •"""
160

DURABLE GOODS
•"•'V ""

280 [^INVENTORIES—
240

-

RO

320

GOODS

—•£=»*
•' '
\

"v.

NC NDURABLE GC ODS

120.
100

-

NONDURABLE GOODS

1 1 M i i 1 1 1 1 i H j M ! 1 ! 1 1 I m,,|
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS'(RATIO SCALE)
200 CT

1 11 M 1i 1 i 1 i

1 i I1 1 1 M 1 1[

60

2.2

INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO
_

2.0

40
I H I I I I IM

1978

1979

1982

1980

*5EA5ONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1981

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

5 [anufaeturers ' new orders i

Manufa eturers' inveiitories 2

Manufa cturers' ship Tients *

Durabl 5 goods
Period
Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable goods

Durable
goods

M llions
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981: Oct

Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Ocf
Nov"
1
3
3

Total

industries,
nondefense

Nondurable goods

Manufacturers'
inventory —
shipments

of do liars, seaso lally adjust 3d

42,939
48,113
53,934
59,104
67,875
76,708
82,800

102,874
112,581
121,737
138,045
160,601
174,674
188,429

57,060
62,612
67,598
72,634
80,433
89,341
94,723

85,149
99,543
115,027
131,664
147,354
155,738
166,015

42,019
51,398
61,076
72,410
79,394
79,060
83,272

11,011
12,799
15,276
19,444
23,203
23,449
24,061

43,130
48,145
53,951
59,254
67,960
76,678
82,743

173,829
182,499
204,880
261,941
303,178
320,977
318,621

1.84

81,265
80,279
79,133

82,692
81,163
80,481

284,386
285,784
283,152

189,461
190,222
188,429

94,925
95,561
94,723

159,558
159,460
156,660

77,193
78,592
76,421

22,528
24,369
22,130

82,365
80,868
80,239

323,556
321,574
318,621

1.73
1.77
1.77

75,551
77,976
78,124
77,136
79,518
78,888
79,036
77,248
76,562
72,342
72,674

79,472
80,167
79,394
78,978

281,155
281,688
280,065
278,985
276,449
275,115
274,914
274,302
272,474
272,259

187,054
187,121
186,063
185,916
184,870
184,289
183,798
183,550
182,793
182,392

94,100
94,567
94,002
93,070
91,579
90,826
91,116
90,752
89,681
89,867

154,519
155,984
157,198
154,995
156,791
157,058
158,588
154,380
156,166
149,696

75,061
76,309
77,859
76,194
75,710
74,550
76,446
72,982
73,266
69,598
70,887

21,717
21,560
22,174
22,608
20,332
19,278
20,322
18,893
20,273
20,183
20,397

79,458
79,676
79,339
78,803
81,081
82,508
82,142
81,398
82,900
80,098

318,114
315,957
315,639
314,521
310,482
306,032
303,235
299,001
295,883
293,107

1.81
1.78
1.78
1.79
1.72
1.70
1.70
1.73
1.71
1.79

86,395
98,802
113,201
126,953
143,935
154,249
166,217
163,957
161,442

81,310
82,631
82,346
81,371
82,716
80,131

Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same a
Book value, end of period.
End of period.




Capital

Nondurable goods

Manufacturers'
unfilled
orders 3

159,934
175,193
189,334
210,679
241,034
264,016
283,152

43,656
50,689
59,267
67,848
76,060
77,540
83,417

159,614
155,023
158,142
157,517
156,114
160,828
161,519
161,382
158,619
159,278
152,473

1982

1.69
1.61
1.57
1.57
1.66
1.66

4
For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for
monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census-

21

PRICES
PRODUCER PRICES
In November, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.6 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of
finished consumer foods fell 0.2 percent, and prices of other finished consumer goods increased 1.1 percent. Prices
of capital equipment rose 0.3 percent.
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)
320

160

INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)

£

160

140

140

120

120
1974

1982

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISEHS

[1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Internlediate ma terials

Fin shed goods

Period

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

1980
1981
1981: Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June

July '.
Aug
Sept
Oct

Nov
1

Total
finished
goods

Consumer
foods

P.nished go jds excluding consumer foo is

Total
Total




Durable

Nondurable

Capital
equipment

Total

Foods
and
feeds l

147.5
163.4
170.6
181.7
195.9
217.7
247.0
269.8

166.9
181.0
180.4
189.9
207.2
226.2
239.5
253.6

139.3
156.2
166.1
177.7
190.7
213.3
247.8
273.3

138.6
153.1
162.6
174.3
186.7
211.5
250.8
276.5

125.9
138.2
144.5
152.8
166.9
183.2
206.2
218.6

146.8
163.0
174.8
189.3
200.0
231.3
283.9
319.6

141.0
162.5
173.4
184.6
199.2
216.5
239.8
264.3

149.3
163.6
169.7
180.7
194.9
217.9
248.9
271.3

162.9
180.0
189.1
201.5
215.6
242.2
280.3
306.0

200.2
195.3
185.3
190.5
203.1
226.1
252.6
250.3

275.5
276.3

253.2
253.0

280.9
281.9

283.8
284.6

224.5
224.7

328.0
329.3

272.5
274.1

276.3
276.9

310.6
311.1

233.6
233.2

277.8
277.3
276.9
277.1
276.9
279.7
281.2
283.0
282.6
283.9
285.7

255.9
257.1
256.8
261.1
262.7
263.9
259.8
260.3
258.9
258.5
258.1

283.0
282.0
281.6
280.5
279.8
283.0
286.4
288.5
288.4
290.3
292.8

285.6
284.7
283.6
281.7
280.4
284.1
288.2
290.3
290.6
293.0
296.1

224.4
223.1
224.3
223.7
224.6
226.6
227.2
229.1
227.1
229.0
230.6

331.3
330.6
327.8
325.0
322.0
327.1
334.0
336.0
338.1
340.7
345.2

275.4
274.3
275.7
276.5
277.5
279.5
280.5
283.1
282.1
282.7
283.5

278.5
278.2
277.3
277.3
276.8
279.8
281.4
283.0
282.7
284.2
286.4

312.0
311.1
310.1
308.3
308.8
309.6
310.7
310.7
310.8
310.3
311.7

237.8
238.9
237.4
243.4
247.3
246.9
243.6
241.8
237.4
233.8
233.1

Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds.

22

Consumer gc>oAs

Cnide maten als

Other

Total

Foodstuffs
and
feedstuffs

Other

159.5

196.1
196.9
202.7
209.2
234.4
274.3
304.6
329.0

189.4
191.8
190.2
192.1
216.2
247.9
259.2
257.4

208.9
206.9
228.5
245.0
272.3
330.0
401.0
482.3

318.1
313.6

240.8
234.1

483.9
484.6

319.3
317.3
314.7
320.1
327.4
327.0
323.7
321.9
317.0
314.7
317.4

244.5
246.1
246.7
255.4
262.5
260.5
253.4
250.8
241.3
236.6
238.9

480.3
470.6
461.2
459.8
467.8
470.5
475.1
475.0
479.8
482.5
486.1

178.6
189.4
202.3
216.5
244.4
282.3
310.1
316.3
316.9
317.6
316.5
315.5
313.1
313.4
314.3
315.7
315.8
316.2
315.9
317.5

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

CONSUMER PRICES
In November, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.1 percent, seasonally adjusted (declined 0.2
percent, unadjusted). Food and beverages prices rose 0.1 percent, seasonally adjusted, and energy prices fell 0.6
percent, unadjusted.
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)
320

INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE]
320

300

300

280

280

260

260

240

240

220

220

200

ALL ITEMS

i ii i Ii iM
1974

1975

i il l Iliili

Mill
1979

1976

1980

1981

SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW
SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OP LABOR

1982

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Transportatic n

Housing
Period

All
items l

Food
and
beverages

Total '

Home
purchase

NSA

NSA

Rel. imp.6.

100.0

17.5

46.0

9.6

1974

147.7
161.2
170.5
181.5
195.4
217.4
246.8
272.4
280.7
281.5
282.5
283.4
283.1
284.3
287.1
290.6
292.2
292.8
293.3
294.1
293.6

158.7
172.1
177.4
188.0
206.3
228.5
248.0
267.3
271.9
272.1
274.1
275.8
274.9
275.7
277.8
279.6
279.5
278.8
280.2
280.7
280.9

148.8
164.5
174.6
186.5
202.8
227.6
263.3
293.5
304.8
305.9
306.7
307.9
306.9
309.5
313.7
316.8
318.4
319.7
319.1
320.3
319.6

142.7
160.3
168.4
179.5
196.7
223.1
254.3
267.7
270.2
270.5
269.3
270.4
269.2
272.3
279.3
285.6
287.7
287.9
286.8
289.9
290.4

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981: Nov
Dee
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
1

Home
financing,
taxes,
and
insurance
NSA

Apparel
and
upkeep

12.9
181.1
201.9
212.8
227.2
257.8
308.9
396.0
472.5
505.6
506.3
506.0
507.2
500.9
508.4
516.2
521.8
524.3
527.3
519.9
514.3
504.8

4.6
136.2
142.3
147.6
154.2
159.6
166.6
178.4
186.9
189.3
189.4
189.3
190.1
190.9
191.1
191.0
191.2
192.1
192.8
193.2
193.6
193.3

Includes items not shown separately.
Includes direct pricing of diesei and gasohol beginning September 1981.
3
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant, etc.
4
Estimated series- Finance includes financing, taxes, and insurance.
5
An experimental measure using a rental equivalence approach for homeownership costs. Effective with data for January 1983, the consumer price index for all urban consumers will incorporate
a rental equivalence measure.
3




Total »

6

19.3
137.7
150.6
165.5
177.2
185.5
212.0
249.7
280.0
290.8
292.5
291.9
289.9
287.1
282.6
283.8
289.7
293.1
293.9
294.8
296.5
297.4

New
cars

Motor
fuel2

Medical
care

3.1

6.0

4.9

117.5
127.6
135.7
142.9
153.8
166.0
179.3
190.2
194.6
196.1
196.0
194.5
194.6
196.0
196.5
197.9
198.8
199.7
200.1
199.3
198.4

159.9
170.8
177.9
188.2
196.3
265.6
369.1
410.9
418.1
420.3
413.1
403.6
387.6
361.8
365.1
384.7
392.0
391.7
391.5
395.0
396.2

150.5
168.6
184.7
202.4
219.4
239.7
265.9
294.5
308.3
310.5
312.9
315.0
318.1
321.3
324.2
327.1
330.5
333.4
336.3
338.9
342.4

Energy 3

All items
less food,
energy,
and home
purchase

NSA

finance

11.1
159.7
176.6
189.3
207.3
220.4
275.9
361.1
410.0
414.1
414.6
416.4
413.0
406.1
395.7
402.1
418.6
424.5
424.5
424.2
425.0
422.6

4

49.8
138.5
150.5
160.8
170.6
180,9
194.1
211.6
231.6
239.8
241.4
242.5
243.4
244.6
246.1
247.0
248.7
250.3
251.3
252.4
254.2
254.7

All
items
X-l s
NSA

142.9
154.7
163.5
173.9
185.8
203.6
226.4
248.0
254.9
255.8
257.2
258.0
258.4
258.8
260.6
263.2
265.0
265.5
266.8
268.0
268.4

Relative importance, December 1981.

NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and
clerical workers.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

23

CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

„

Change from p receding pen od

Change from 3 mont is earlier, aim ial rate

Change from 6 mont s earlier, annual rate

CoHSum r goods

Consum sr goods

Consum 3r goods

Total
finished

goods

Capital
equipment

Excluding foods

Foods

Total
finished

goods

Excluding
foods

Foods

Total

Capital
equipment

finished

goods

Excluding
foods

Foods

Capital
equipment

Change
from
year
earlier,
total
finished
goods

NSA
Ch!inge, Dee, to Dec., I SA

1973
1974

11.8

18.3
6.6
3.7
6.9
9.2
12.8
11.8
7.1

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

7.4
20.5
6.7
6.0
6.7
8.5
17.5
14.2
8.5

22.5
13.0
5.5
-2.5
6.9
11.7
7.4
7.5
1.4

5.3
22.6
8.2
6.4
7.3
7.9
8.8
11.4
9.2

9.1
15.3
10.8
4.4
6.5
7.8
11.1
13.5
9.2

C lange, moiith to mon th

1981: Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
Julyr
Aug'
Sept
Ocf
Nov

0.5
.3
.5
-.2
— .1
.1
— .1
1.0
,5
.6
-1

.5
.6

-0.7

0.7
.6
.5
— .4
.5
.3
.4
.7
.4
.9
-.4
.2
.3

0.9
.3
.4
-.3
.4
-.7
.5
1.3
1.4
.7
.1
.8
1.1

1
1.1
.5
-.1
1.7
.6
.5
-1.6
.2
-.5
-.2
2

8.8
7.8
6.1
1.8
— 1.4
5.4
-5.9
.7
9.6
14.9
9.5
6.8
8.2

5.5
-3.9
1.4

5.1

5.5
5.4
2.6
.9
-1.0
.6
4.1
6.1
9.1
4.2
3.9
3.9

6.3
6.1
8.4
9.0
11.5
-2.0
3.6
-7.4
2.0
-3.3

7.8
9.7
7.4
2.7
2.4
1.6
4.7
5.6
5.9
8.3
3.8
3.2
.6

-0.1
-1.2

5.0
4.5
4.8

-.5
.2
1.0
4.8
7.6
8.8
3.1
2.5
1.6
-2.0
3.5

3.9
3.2
2.1
1.0
2.5
2.5
4.2
4.2
5.0
6.5

6.0

8.2

5.5
6.0
5.0
3.1
.2
-2.4
— .4
1.8
4.0
5.0
8.2
11.5

7.7
7.5
5.2
6.0
4.5
3.7
4.0
3.7
6.5
4.7
4.5
4.4

7.2
7.1
6.5
5.5
4.2
3.3
3.0
3.5
3.6
4.0
3.6
3.6
3.7

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.

CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Tr ansportat on

Housing

Addendum: All items percent
cha ige (annual r ate)

Home
financ-

Period

items 1

beverages

Total

1

Ap-

Home

mg,

parel

pur-

taxes,

chase

and
insurance

and
upkeep

NSA

Total'

New
cars

Motor
fuel 2

Medi-

Ener-

cal

gy3

care

All items
less food,
energy,
and home
purchase

and
finance

NSA

All
items

4

From

From

3

6

months
earlier

months
earlier

From
year
earlier

NSA

NSA

Chan ge, Dec smber to Decem jer, NSJi.
1974
1975

12.2
7.0

12.0
6.2

1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

4.8
6.8
9.0
13.3
12.4
8.9

.8
7.6
11.6
10.0
10.1
4.3

13.4

7.5
5.4
7.6
9.9
15.2
13.7
10.2

10.1
10.0
4.3
8.4
11.2
15.8
11.4
1.2

14.6
7.6
1.6
11.2
14.7
27.5
23.3
17.9

8.7
2.3
4.5
4.2
3.2
5.5
6.8
3.6

13.3
9.8
8.8
4.3
7.7
18.2
14.7
11.0

11.5
7.3
4.8
7.2
6.2
7.4
7.5
6.8

20.6
11.0
2.6
4.9
8.5
52.2
18.9
9.4

12.4
9.9

0.8
.5
— 1.7
2.3
-4.0
-6.7
.9
5.4
1.9
-.1
-.1
.9
.3

1.1
.7
.8
.7
1.0
1.0
.9
.9
1.0
.9
.9
.8
1.0

10.1
8.8
8.8
10.1
10.0
12.5

21.6
11.6
6.9
7.2
8.0
37.4
18.1
11.9

11.1
6.3
6.8
5.5

11.0
9.1
5.8
6.5
7.7
11.3
13.5
10.4

11.1

6.9
7.5
9.9
9.4

6.6
5.1
6.3
7.9
10.8
10.8
8.5

0.6
.7
.5
.4
.5
.6
.4
.7
.6
.4
.4
.7
.2

0.6
.5
.4
.1
.2
-.2
.6
1.0
.8
.3
.5
.6
.4

Change, mont! to mon th

1981:

Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
1

0.5
.4
.3
.2
-.3
.2
1.0
1.0
.6
.3
.2
.5
.1

0.1
.1
.7
.6
.3
.3
.8
.6
-.0
-.3
.5
.2
.1

0.5
.4
.3

-0.8 '
.1
-.4

.4

.4

-.3
.8
1.4
1.0
.5
.4
-.2
.4
— .2

-.4
1.2
2.6
2.3
.7
.1
-.4
1.1
.2

0.8
.1
— .1
.2
-1.2
1.5
1.5
1.1
.5
.6
— 1.4
— 1.1
1.8

0.1
.1
.1
.4
.4
.1
— .1
.1
.5
.4
.2
.2
-.2

0.9
.6
-.2
— .7
-1.0
1.6
.4
2.1
1.2
.3
.3
.6
.3

Includes items not shown separately.
Includes direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981.
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel, motor oil, coolant, etc.
4
Estimated series. Finance includes financing, taxes, and insurance.
s
An experimental measure using a rental equivalence approach for homownership costs. Effective
with data for January 1983, the consumer price index for all urban consumers will incorporate a
rental equivalence measure,
2

3

24




0.3
.8
1

-.8
.1
.7
.3
.7
.5
.5
.2
A

-.5

-0.2 r
.1
.4
.8
-1.7
2.6
1.6
4.1
1.4
0
— .1
,2
.6

8.4
5.4

4.8
3.7
1.0
.8
3.7
9.3
10.8
7.9
4.2
3.8
2.9

9.8
9.1
7.2
6.0
3.2
2.8
3.7
5.1
5.7
5.8
6.7
7.2
5.4

9.6
8.9
8.4
7.7
6.8
6.6
6.7
7.1
6.5
5.9
5.0
5.1
4.6

NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data beginning January 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical workers.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received by farmers rose 0.8 percent in November and prices paid by farmers rose 0.6 percent in the month
ended November 15.
INDEX, 1977=100

INDEX, 1977=100

(RATIO SCALE)

(RATIO SCALE)

100

80

80

RATIO I/
160

RATIO
160
140

140

120

120

100

100

80

I IIIIIIIIIIIIIIii IIIIIi
1974
1975

i i i i iI
1976

Ii ii i IIi ii
1977

80
I

I I I I I I I I I I I I I

1978

I I I I I I I

1979

1980

| I I I I I I

1981

! I il I I I I I

1982

.!/ RATIO Or INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICUUURE

[1977 = 100]

F rices paid by farmer s

Pri ses received by farm ers
Period

All farm
products

Livestock and
products

All commodities,
services,
interest, taxes,1
and wage rates

Production
items, interest,
taxes, and wage
rates

Production
items

•

132
134
138

117
105
102
100
105
116
125
134

94
98
101
100
124
147
144
143

81
89
95
100
108
123
138
150

81
89
95
100
109
125
139
150

83
91
97
100
108
125

138
148

130
•113
107
100
106
107
97
92

1981: Nov
Dec

130
128

121
122

138
133

150
150

149
148

147
145

87
85

1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov

132
133
133
135
139
137
136
133
136
128
129

126
123
120
123
125
125
124
119
125
114
118

137
142
145
147
151
149
148
147
146
142
139

154
154
155
155
155
156
156
156
156
155
156

153
153
154
154

148
151
150
150
150
151
151
151
150
149
149

86
86
86
87
90
88
87
85
87
83
83

1974

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

105
101
102
100
115

1
Includes items not shown separately.
2
Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes,
and wage rates.




155
155
155
154
154
153
153

NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes
lave been converted to a 1977 = 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.

25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS
In November, growth slowed in Ml and accelerated in the broader aggregates.
BILLIONS Of DOLLARS' /RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS "(RATIO SCALE)

400

200

1974
"SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE, BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]

M2

Ml

M3

L

M2 plus large time
deposits, term KPs, and
institution-only MMMF

M3 plus other liquid
assets

Percent change from year or 6
n onths earlier

Ml plus overnight EPs
Period

1974:
1975:
1976:
1977:
1978:
1979:
1980:
1981:
1981:

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dee
Dec
Dec
Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb r
Mar r
Apr r
May r.
June T.
July r
Aug r.
Sept r
Oct r.
NOT"

Sum of currency,
demand deposits,
travelers' checks, and
other checkable deposits
(OCD) '

277.4
291.0
310.4

335.5
363.2
389.0
414.5
440.9
436.4
440.9
448.6
447.3
448.3
452.4
451.5
451.4
451.3
455.2
460.5
468.4
474.9

and Eurodollars,
MMMF balances
(general purpose and
broker /dealer), and
savings and small time
deposits
911.2
1,026.9
1,171.2
1,297.7

1,403.9
1,518.9
1,656.2
1,822.7
1,809.9
1,822.7
1,841.3
1,848.1
1,865.3
1,880.9
1,897.7
1,908.2
1,923.8
1,946.8
1,955.1
1,968.2
1,987.4

1
Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial bants and official institutions.
2
Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months
earlier at an annual rate.

26




1,064.3
1,166.2
1,305.0
1,464.6
1,629.0
1,779.4
1,963.1
2,188.1
2,174.7
2,188.1
2,204.3
2,215.1
2,235.9
2,258.3
2,279.5
2,296.2
2,320.6
2,356.4
2,364.2
2,380.7
2,397.9

1,249.8
1,376.6
1,531.4
1,724.3
1,938.9
2,153.9
2,370.4
2,642.8
2,629.3
2,642.8
2,667.9
2,690.5
2,717.2
2,744.2
2,774.4
2,799.5
2,831.9
2,858.2

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Ml

4.4
4.9
6.7
8.1
8.3
7.1
6.6
6.4
3.4
5.9
9.1
7.7
8.1
9.2
7.0
4.8
1.2
3.6
5.5
7.2
10.6

M2

5.6
12.7
14.1
10.8
8.2
8.2
9.0
10.1
9.1
9.6
10.2
8.7
10.0
10.5
9.9
9.6
9.2
11.0
9.9
9.5
9.7

M3

8.4
9.6
11.9
12.2
11.2
9.2
10.3
11.5
10.9
10.4
9.9
8.6
9.4
10.2
9.9
10.1
10.8
13.2
11.8
11.1
10.7

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Period

Currency

Demand
deposits l

Other
checkable
deposits
(OCD)

Overnight
repurchase
agreements
(RPs),
net, plus
overnight
Eurodollars

Money market
mutua Hund
bala aces
General
purpose
and
broker/
dealer

Institution
only

NSA

NSA

NSA

Savings
deposits

Small
denomination time2
deposits

Large
denomination time2
deposits

Term
repurchase
agreements
(RPs)

Term
Eurodollars
(net)

NSA

NSA

Shortterm

Bank-

ings
bonds

Treasury
securities

ers'
acceptances

mercial
paper

10.6
8.4

8.8
11.8
21.4
26.5
31.8
39.7

50.1
48.0
51.7
62.9
79.2
97.0
98.1
104.2

Dec:
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

73.8
80.6
88.6
97.4
106.1
116.2
123.1

207.4
214.1
224.4
239.6
253.9
262.2
267.2
236.4

0.4
.9
2.7
4.2
8.4
16.9
26.9
77.0

7.2
7.5
13.7
18.8
24.1
26.3
35.0
38.1

2.1
3.2
2.8
2.9
7.1
34.4
61.9
151.2

0.2
.4
.6
.9
3.1
9.3
13.9
33.7

337.6
387.7
451.7
490.4
479.9
421.7
398.9
343.6

290.0
340.9
396.5
454.1
533.9
652.6
751.7
854.7

144.4
129.8
118.2
145.2
194.6
221.8
257.9
300.3

9.0
15.0
21.0
27.5
30.2
37.8
35.4

8.0
9.7
13.1
18.7
29.9
42.9
48.4
66.7

63.2
67.2

71.7
76.4
80.3
79.6
72.3
67.7

53.6
77.1
81.1
89.9
99.3
128.5
156.7
176.5

1981:
Nov
Dec

121.8
123.1

235.7
236.4

74.7
77.0

36.9
38.1

144.9
151.2

32.0
33.7

340.9
343.6

856.8
854.7

300.6
300.3

35.6
35.4

65.5
66.7

67.7
67.7

179.9
176.5

38.1
39.7

103.7
104.2

1982:
Jan
Feb r.
Mar r
Apr r
May r
June r
July r.
Aug r
Sept r
Get r
Nov*

123.8
124.6
125.1
126.3
127.4
128.4
128.8
129.5
130.5
131.2
131.6

239.3
234.5
233.0
233.0
232.7
231.0
230.6
231.1
232.6
236.2
238.3

81.1
83.8
85.8
88.6
87.0
87.5
87.4
90.2
93.0
96.5
100.7

43.2
42.9
43.0
40.4
42.8
43.0
43.4
44.5
43.3
46.0
47.4

154.9
156.1
159.4
162.1
164.6
168.9
171.7
180.6
182.5
184.1
186.6

32.5
30.5
31.5
31.5
32.8
33.7
36.7
43.1
43.9
44.8
45.3

348.8
348.6
350.7
350.5
350.9
349.9
344.0
342.0
342.4
352.6
362.3

852.3
859.4
869.9
881.6
894.1
900.9
919.7
930.6
932.6
923.8
923.0

302.6
308.0
312.6
317.2
321.6
328.3
335.8
339.6
339.3
341.2
337.0

32.5
32.5
31.5
34.2
32.6
31.2
29.3
32.1
30.5
31.3
33.4

69.9
73.8
74.4
78.5
83.3
84.8
84.2
81.5

67.8
67.8
67.7
67.7
67.7
67.8
67.7
67.6

180.3
186.4
191.0
191.7
191.9
194.8
199.9
200.5

40.2
39.1
37.9
38.3
39.9
40.3
40.8
40.2

105.5
108.4
110.3
109.7
112.1
115.7
118.7
112.0

67.8

J

Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions.
Small denomination arid large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than
$100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively.

8.4

NOTE.—See p. 26 for overall measures.
NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.

2

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Insta Iment credit exte nded
Total

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

1

Automobile

Revolving

Total »

Automobile

172,765
180,083
210,740
257,600
297,668
324,777
306,076
336,341

46,514
52,420

33,213
36,956

163,276
172,675

46,019
49,444

63,743
75,641
87,981
93,901
83,454
94,404

43,934
87,596
105,125
120,174
128,068
140,135

189,179
222,138
254,589
286,396
304,628
316,447

1981: Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

29,406
26,836
27,370
26,656

9,000
7,490
8,073
7,352

12,263
11,753
11,379
11,592

1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct

26,888
27,150
27,462
28,684
29,197
29,737
27,514
27,579
28,268
28,062

7,474
7,283
7,183
7,871
8,429
8,182
7,332
7,112
7,546
7,970

11,070
11,730
12,143
12,416
12,528
13,361
12,551
12,497
12,464
12,340

1

Includes "mobile home" and "other," not shown separately.




Net char ge in amount ou standing

Insta Iment credit liquidated
Revolving
31,243

Total '
9,489
7,408
21,561

Automobile
495

Revolving
1,970

35,462
43,079
38,381
1,448
19,894

2,976
10,465
15,204
18,736
14,715
477
9,595

1,340
2,170
6,248
9,035
8,628
1,415
4,697

11,692
11,429
11,358
11,533

2,975
1,002
600
-33

2,079
1,024
564
68

571
324
21
59

11,266
11,885
11,836
11,917
11,991
12,854
11,939
12,354
12,254
12,232

443
75
990
1,175
1,399
1,349
570
66
1,092
-324

-121
-56
-28
233
959
655
61
-402
505
-78

-196
-155
307
499
537
507
612
143
210
108

53,278
60,437
69,245
79,186
82,977
84,809

35,616
41,764
81,348
96,090
111,546
126,653
135,438

26,431
25,834
26,770
26,689

6,921
6,466
7,509
7,284

26,445
27,075
26,472
27,509
27,798
28,388
26,944
27,513
27,176
28,386

7,595
7,339
7,211
7,638
7,470
7,527
7,271
7,514
7,041
8,048

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System-

27

BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES
Commercial and industrial loans declined in November.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS'(RATIO SCALE)
1,800

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS'(RATIO SCALE)

40

40
1982

1974
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AVERAGES OF WEDNESDAY FIGURES

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE- BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Depo sitory institutic ns 3

Al 1 commercial banks '
Loans a nd leases
Period

1975:
1976:
1977:
1978:
1979:
1980:
1981:

Total loans
and
investments

Total 2

Commercial
and industrial
loans

U.S. Treasury
securities

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec

745.2
804.6
891.5
1,013.5
1,135.9
1,239.6
1,316.3

517.4
555.0
632.5
747.0
849.9
915.1
973.9

189.6
190.9
210.9
245.9
291.2
326.8
358.0

82.2
100.8

1981: Nov

1,327.5

Dec

1,316.3

986.1
973.9

1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct r
Nov*
1
2
3

1,320.0
1,332.4
1,342.5
1,352.5
1,362.0
1,368.8
1,376.1
1,383.1
1,389.4
1,397.5
1,398.6

974.5
985.2

995.0
1,002.0
1,010.8
1,017.1
1,023.7
1,028.3
1,033.5
1,038.1
1,036.4

Data are averages of Wednesday figures.
Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States.
Data are averages of daily figures.

28



E eserves adjust sd
for changes m
re serve requirertients

Invest!nents
Other
securities

Total

Nonborrowed

Required

Total

Seasonal

37.67

62
558
874
1,473
1,617
636

13
12
54
134
82
116
53

36.95
37.35

37.27
37.67

661
636

79
53

37.20
36.47
36.80
36.87
37.39
37.37
37.83
38.29
38.63
39.40
39.84

38.30
37.96
37.99
38.16
38.15
38.27
38.21
38.49
39.18
39.47
40.06

1,526
1,713
1,611
1,581
1,105
1,205
669
510
976
455
579

75
132
174
167
237
239
225
119
102
86
47

99.8
93.8
94.5
110.0
111.0

145.6
148.8
159.3
172.8
191.5
214.4
231.4

29.29
29.86
31.17
32.82
34.26
36.46
37.99

30.60
31.95
32.79
34.77
37.35

363.4
358.0

110.3
111.0

231.2
231.4

37.62
37.99

360.3

114.1
115.1
114.4
116.6
116.3
115.8
116.5
117.8
118.2
122.3
126.4

231.5
232.0
233.1
234.0
234.9
235.9
235.9
237.1
237.6
237.2
235.8

38.71
38.26
38.36
38.43
38.50
38.58
38.52
38.80
39.57
39.88
40.46

365.5
370.0
373.1
378.9
383.4
386.7
387.9
392.5
394.8
391.9

Born)wings
(millions of dollars,
unadj listed)

29.16
29.81

29.02
29.59
30.98
32.59
33.93
35.95

127

NOTE.—Beginning Dee. 1981, banks loans and investments and reserves aggregates have been
reduced because of shifts from U.S. banking offices to International Banking Facilities (IBFs).
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL
CORPORATE BUSINESS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Uses

Sources
External
Period
Total

Internal

0 edit market fa nds

l

Total
Total

1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981: I

n
m

IV
1982: I

n
mp

Securities
and
mortgages

Loans and
short-term
paper

40.7

Total

Other 2

Capital
expenditures 3

Increase in
financial
assets

Discrepancy
(sources less
uses)

165.8
208.7
202.9
167.9
223.4
252.3
315.4
346.3
333.7
352.2

85.0
91.7
85.6
119.7
134.2
157.4
175.7
188.8
197.5
231.1

80.8
117.0
117.3
48.3
89.2
94.9
139.7
157.5
136.2
121.1

57.6
72.9
82.8
41.7
64.3
70.4
79.3
91.2
95.7
92.6

36.9
39.1
49.7
48.0
33.9
31.9
25.9
57.5
23.0

16.9
36.0
43.6
-8.0
16.3
36.5
47.4
65.3
38.2
69.6

23.2
44.0
34.5
6.5
24.9
24.5
60.4
66.3
40.6
28.4

149.1
191.9
190.1
150.9
201.4
237.6
294.2
347.1
317.9
314.8

99.0
121.5
137.9
109.7
148.3
175.1
202.2
219.8
220.5
260.9

50.1
70.5
52.2
41.2
53.0
62.5'
92.0
127.3
97.4
53.9

16.7
12.9
17.0
22.0
14.7
21.2
-.8
15.8
37.4

333.7
381.2
348.9
345.0

222.4
225.4
235.2
241.4

111.3
155.8
113.7
103.6

68.7
119.1
100.2
82.5

41.6
34.8
3.2
12.6

27.1
84.3
97.0
69.9

42.6
36.8
13.5
21.0

318.2
352.2
304.6
284.0

233.5
260.0
284.6
265.5

84.7
92.2
20.0
18.5

15.4
29.0
44.2
61.0

297.6
348.2
371.6

232.6
234.3
240.3

65.0
113.9
131.3

110.2
93.3
98.0

30.5
33.0
59.3

79.7
60.3
38.7

-45.2
20.6
33.3

225.3
304.9

241.9
248.5
264.2

-16.6
56.4
64.3

72.3
43.3
43.1

Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital
consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained

328.5

16.7

3

Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S.
Government.
Source: Board of Governors of

Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S.

&e Pederal Reserve System.

CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL
CORPORATIONS
[Billions of dollars, except as noted]
Curren , assets
End of period
Total

Cash

Goverasecurities

SEC series: 2
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

Notes and
accounts
receivable

Current liabilitie s
Other
current
assets

Inven-

Total

Notes and
accounts
payable

Other
current
liabilities

Net
working
capital

ratio l

492.3
529.6
599.3
697.8
790.7

50.2
53.3
59.0
66.3
71.1

7.7
11.0
10.6
12.8
12.3

206.1
221.1
248.2
288.5
322.1

193.3
200.4
225.7
263.9
313.6

35.0
43.8
55.8
66.4
71.7

304.9
326.0
375.6
450.9
530.4

211.3
220.5
282.9
340.3
402.3

93.6
105.5
92.7
110.7
128.1

187.4
203.6
223.7
246.9
260.3

1.615
1.625
1.595
1.548
1.491

735.4
759.0
827.4
912.7
1,043.7
1,218.2
1,333.5
1,427.1

73.2
82.1
88.2
97.2
105.5
118.0
127.1
131.7

11.1
19.0
23.5
18.2
17.3
17.0
19.3
17.9

265.8
272.1
292.9
330.3
388.0
461.1
510.6
536.7

319.5
315.9
342.5
376.9
431.6
505.5
543.7
587.1

65.9
69.9
80.3
90.1
101.3
116.7
132.7
153.6

453.4
451.6
495.1
557.1
669.3
807.8
890.9
980.0

269.8
264.2
282.1
317.6
382.9
461.2
515.2
562.9

183.6
187.4
213.0
239.6
286.4
346.6
375.7
417.1

282.0
307.4
332.4
355.5
374.4
410.5
442.6
447.1

1.622
1.681
1.671
1.638
1.559
1.508
1.497
1.456

nr
m

1,374.5
1,388.3
1,410.9
1,427.1

126.6
126.2
125.1
131.7

19.2
19.9
18.0
17.9

528.0
533.1
542.4
536.7

560.2
565.3
577.0
587.1

140.5
143.8
148.3
153.6

923.2
931.5
967.2
980.0

520.3
525.9
549.5
562.9

402.9
405.5
417.7
417.1

451.3
456.8
443.7
447.1

1.489
1.490
1.459
1.456

n

1,423.6
1,419.4

121.3
123.4

17.1
17.4

537.8
534.4

593.8
589.2

153.6
155.0

985.7
982.6

555.0
554.9

430.8
427.8

437.9
436.8

1.444
1.445

FTC-FRB series: 3
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980 r
1981 r

1981: I r.r

IV '
1982: I *
1

Total current assets divided by total current liabilities.
Based on data from Statistics of Income, Department ol the Treasury.
Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations, Federal Trade Commission.
2

3




NOTE.—SEC series not available after 1974.
See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Trade Commission, and
Securities and Exchange Commission.

29

INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS

On average, short-term interest rates fell slightly in December and long-term rates rose a little.
PERCENT PER ANNUM

CORPORATE Aaa BONDS
(MOODY'S)

6 -

1974

1981

SOURCE; SEE TABLE BELOW

1982

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC

ADVISERS

[Percent per annum]

U.S. 1Yeasury security yields
Period

1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1981: Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Atig
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec "
Week ended:
1982: Nov 6
13
20
27
Dec 4
11
18
25
1983: Jan 1
1

3-month
bills '
4.989
5.265
7.221
10.041
11.506
14.077
10.926
12.412
13.780
12.493
12.821
12.148
12.108
11.914
9.006
8.196
7.750
8.042
8.013

7.813
7.964
8.446
7.944
8.280
7.956
7.995
7.857
7.975

Constant nnaturities 2
3-year
6.77

6.69
8.29
9.72
11.55
14.44
13.66
14.64
14.73
14.13
14.18
13.77
14.48
14.00
12.62
12.03
10.62
9.98
9.89
9.96
9.96
10.01
9.92
10.04
9.95
9.84
9.88

10-year

7.61
7.42
8.41
9.44
11.46
13.91
13.72
14.59
14.43
13.86
13.87
13.62
14.30
13.95
13.06
12.34
10.91

10.55
10.55
10.48
10.53
10.56
10.52
10.69
10.56
10.56
10.56

High-grade
municipal
bonds
(Standard &
Poor's) 3
6.49
5.56

5.90
6.39
8.51
11.23
12.77
13.16
12.81
12.72
12.45
11.99
12.42
12.11
11.12
10.61
9.59
9.97
9.88
9.83
10.11
10.05
10.06
10.05
10.02
9.91

Rate on new issues within period; bank-discount basis.
2
Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department.
3
Weekly data are Wednesday figures.
4
Prior to November 1, 1979, data are for 4-6 months paper,
s
Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week.

30




Corporate
Aaa bonds
(Moody's)

8.43
8.02
8.73
9.63
11.94
14.17
14.23
15.18
15.27
14.58
14.46
14.26
14.81
14.61
13.71
12.94
12.12
11.68
11.84
11.68
11.62
11.70
11.67
11.83
11.79
11.82
11.91

Prime
commercial
paper,
6 months 4

Discount rate
(N.Y. P.R.
Bank) 5

Prime rate
charged by
banks 5

5.34
"5.61
4
7.99
10.91
12.29
14.76
12.14
13.35
14.27
13.47
13.64
13.02
13.79
13.00
10.80
10.86
9.21
8.72
8.50

5.50
5.46
7.46
10.28
11.77
13.41
13.00-12.00
12.00-12.00
12.00-12.00
12.00-12.00
12.00-12.00
12.00-12.00
12.00-12.00
12.00-11.50
11.50-10.00
10.00-10.00
10.00- 9.50
9.50- 9.00
9.00-

6.84
6.83
9.06
12.67
15.27
18.87
15.75-15.75
15.75-15.75
15.75-16.50
16.50-16.50
16.50-16.50
16.50-16.50
16.50-16.50
16.50-15.50
15.50-13.50
13.50-13.50
13.50-12.00
12.00-11.50
11.50-

8.71
8.76
8.89
8.50
8.69
8.50
8.50
8.41

9.50- 9.50
9.50- 9.50
9.50- 9.50
9.50- 9.00
9.00-9.00
9.00-9.00
9.00-8.50
8.50-8.50
8.50-

12.00-12.00
12.00-12.00
12.00-12.00
12.00-11.50
11.50-11.50
11.50-11.50
11.50-11.50
11.50-11.50
11.50-

4

New-home
mortgage
yields
(FHLBB)6

9.00
9.02
9.56
10.78
12.66
14.70
15.87
15.25
15.12
15.67
15.84
15.89
15.40
15.70
15.68
14.98
14.41
13.83

"Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as
well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Rates beginning
January 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates.
Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS
Stock prices, on average, were slightly higher in December than in November.
INDEX, DEC 31,1965=50

INDEX, DEC 31, 1965=50

80

30

30
1982

PERCENT

PERCENT

20

20
EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS

(S&P)

10

1974

1975

I

1976

1979

1978

1977

1980

1981

Common stock price s l

Composite

1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

Industrial

54.46
53.69
53.70
58.32
68.10
74.02

60.44
57.86
58.23
64.76
78.70
85.44

1981: Dec

71.81

1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec"
Week ended:
1982: Nov 13
20
27
Dec 4
11
18
25

67.91
66.16
63.86
66.97
67.07
63.10
62.82
62.91
70.21
76.10
79.75
80.23
81.44
79.32
77.68
79.60
81.35
79.06
79.64

1

Transportation




Finance

Utility

Dow-Jones
industrial
average 3

Standard &
Poor's
composite
index (194143 = 10)4

Dividendprice ratio

Earningsprice ratio

39.57
41.09
43.50
47.34
60.61
72.61

36.97
40.92
39.22
38.20
37.35
38.91

52.94
55.25
56.65
61.42
64.25
73.52

974.92
894.63
820.23
844.40
891.41
932.92

102.01
98.20
96.02
103.01
118.78
128.05

3.77
4.62
5.28
5.47
5.26
5.20

8.90
10.79
12.03
13.46
12.66
11.96

81.70

68.27

40.22

74.74

878.28

123.79

5.57

12.53

76.85
74.78
71.51
75.59
75.97
71.59
71.37
70.98
80.08
86.67
90.76
91.91

62.04
59.09
55.19
57.91
56.84
53.07
53.40
53.98
61.39
66.64
71.92
73.39

39.30
38.32
38.57
39.20
39.40
37.34
37.20
38.19
40.36
42.67
43.46
42.87

70.99
70.50
69.08
71.44
69.16
63.19
61.59
62.84
69.66
80.59
88.66
86.35

853.41
833.15
812.33
844.96
846.72
804.37
818.41
832.11
917.27
988.71
1,027.76
1,031.70

117.28
114.50
110.84
116.31
116.35
109.70
109.38
109.65
122.43
132.66
138.10
139.25

5.95
6.06
6.28
5.99
5.97
6.28
6.31
6.32
5.63
5.12
4.92

92.74
90.10
88.19
90.82
93.26
90.44
91.35

73.09
71.30
70.08
73.90
75.12
71.69
72.07

44.29
43.37
42.59
42.53
42.88
42.88
42.63

90.55
89.32
87.44
88.64
88.71
84.25
84.56

1,047.37
1,022.06
999.59
1,027.54
1,041.28
1,005.61
1,028.72

141.18
137.15
133.98
137.79
141.17
137.07
138.36

4.84
4.94
5.10
4.92
4.82
5.09
4.96

Average of daily closing prices.
Includes all the'stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NTSB.
Includes 30 stocks.
4
Includes 500 stocks.
5
Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earningsprice ratios based on prices at end of quarter.
3

3

Common st ock yields
(perce nt) s

Ne x York Stock Ex change indexes 0 )ec. 31, 1965 — 5O ) 2

Period

1982

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION

13.23
13.00

NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

31

FEDERAL FINANCE
FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT
In the first 2 months of fiscal year 1983, there was a budget deficit of $50.3 billion, compared to a budget deficit
of $28.7 billion a year earlier.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
800

800

700

700

600

500

400

BUDGET SURPLUS (*) OR DEFICIT (-

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

FISCAL YEARS
COUNCH OF ECONOMtC ADVISEBS

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

[Billions of dollars]

Period

Fiscal year or period:
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
Transition quarter
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982*
1983 (estimates):
Mid-Session Review, July 1982 *
Second Concurrent Resolution, October 1,
1982 2
Cumulative total first 2 months:
Fiscal year 1982
Fiscal year 1983

Budget
receipts




Budget
surplus or
deficit (— )

Off-budget
outlays

Total
surplus or
deficit (-)

Federal debt end of period)
Gross

Held by the
public

45.2
-66.4
-13.0
-44.9
-48.8
27.7
-59.6
57.9
-110.7

.1
1.4
8.1
7.3
1.8
8.7
10.4
12.5
14.2
21.0
17.3

-23.4
-14.9
-6.1
-53.2
-73.7
-14.7
-53.6
-59.2
-40.2
-73.8
-78.9
-128.0

437.3
468.4
486.2
544.1
631.9
646.4
709.1
780.4
833.8
914.3
1,003.9
1,147.0

323.8
343.0
346.1
396.9
480.3
498.3
551.8
610.9
644.6
715.1
794.4
929.3

761.5

-115.0

14.9

-129.9

1,273.5

1,048.4

665.9

769.8

-103.9

89.2
82.5

117.9
132.9

-28.7
-50.3

2.5
1.0

-31.3
-51.3

1,019.3
1,166.6

815.8
961.5

279.1
298.1
81.2
355.6
399.6
463.3
517.1
599.3
617.8

230.7
245.6
267.9
324.2
364.5
94.2
400.5
448.4
491.0
576.7
657.2
728.4

646.5

207.3
230.8
263.2

1
Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1983 Bttdget, Office of Management and Budget,
Julv 30, 1982.
*In May, Congress voted to make its first budget resolution automatically serve as a second reso-

32

Budget
outlays

-23.4
14.8
-4.7

lution if no further action was taken. Since no action was taken, the first Concurrent Resolution of
June 23, 1982 automatically became the Second Concurrent Resolution on October 1, 1982.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget, except as noted.

FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND
OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
In the first 2 months of fiscal year 1983, budget receipts were $6.7
outlays were $15.0 billion higher.

billion lower than a year earlier and budget

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
400

BILLIONS Of DOLLARS
400
BUDGET RECEIPTS

300

200

200
OTHER RECEIPTS

100

100

CORPORATION INCOME TAXES

J

L_

I

600

600
BUDGET OUTLAYS

500

500

400

400
NONDEFENSE

\

300

300

200

200

100

100
1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1982

1981

1983

FISCAL YEARS
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

[Billions of dollars]
Budget outlays

Budget r ;ceipts
Nation al defense
Period
Total

Fiscal year or period:
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
Transition quarter
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982"
1983 '
Cumulative total first 2 months:
Fiscal year 1982
Fiscal year 1983

207.3
230.8
263.2
279.1
298.1
81.2
355.6
399.6
463.3
517.1
599.3
617.8
646.5

89.2
82.5

Individual
income
taxes

Corporation

Other

Total

taxes

Defense,
military

International
affairs

122.4
131.6
38.8
157.6
181.0
217.8
244.1
285.6
298.1
293.8

32.2
36.2
38.6
40.6
41.4
8.5
54.9
60.0
65.7
64.6
61.1
49.2
58.3

80.4
91.4
105.7
116.1
125.0
34.0
143.0
158.6
179.8
208.4
252.6
270.4
294.4

230.7
245.6
267.9
324.2
364.5
94.2
400.5
448.4
491.0
576.7
657.2
728.4
761.5

76.6
74.5
77.8
85.6
89.4
22.3
97.5
105.2
117.7
135.9
159.7
187.4
221.5

75.1
73.2
77.6
84.9
87.9
21.9
95.6
103.0
115.0
132.8
156.0
182.9
215.9

4.7
4.1
5.7
6.9
5.6
2.2
4.8
5.9
6.1
10.7
11.1
10.0
12.1

44.3
43.3

2.0
-1.1

42.8
40.4

117.9
132.9

28.9
33.2

28.2
32.4

1.7
1.1

94.7
103.2
119.0

1
Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1983 Budget, Office of Management and Budget,
July 30, 1982.




Total

Health and
income
security

Interest

Other

158.9
41.0
174.5
187.4
207.1
248.3
291.6
322.8
337.8

20.6
22.8
28.0
30.9
34.5
7.2
38.0
44.0
52.6
64.5
82.6
100.8
111.1

48.8
53.9
51.6
66.5
76.1
21.5
85.7
105.9
107.5
117.3
112.2
107.4
79.0

50.3
58.2

14.7
16.4

22.3
24.0

80.0
90.4
104.8
134.3

Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

33

FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS
In the third quarter of 1982, according to revised estimates, Federal receipts decreased $3.3 billion (annual rate)
and expenditures rose $33.1 billion, yielding a deficit of $156.0 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
800

500

400

300

50

SURPLUS
DEFICIT

-50 -

-100
-150
1974

1975

1977

1976

1978

1981

1980

1979

1982

CAIENDAR YEARS
SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Federal <jovemment expenditur BS

Federal Governme it receipts

Period

Total

Personal
tax and
nontax
receipts

Fiscal year:
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

365.9
414.3
480.8
525.1
614.7

166.3
186.5
222.6
250.1
291.7

Calendar year:
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

375.2
431.6
493.6
540.7
628.2

170.1
194.9
230.6
257.5
298.1

1980: HI
IV

542.4
574.6

260.1
274.4

1981: I

n
m

620.0
627.0
640.2
625.7

286.4
297.0
307.9
300.9

n
nr.

609.9
617.0
613.7

299.9
305.8
295.6

IV
1982: I

Corporate
profits
tax
accruals

58.9

67.3
76.1
70.0
70.9
61.6
71.3
74.2
70.3
67.3
68.0
72.8
76.1
65.6
68.4
59.1
46.5
45.2
49.8

Indirect
business
tax and
nontax
accruals

Contributions for
social
insurance

Total




Transfer
payments

Surplus
or deficit

Subsidies
Net
interest
paid

current
surplus of
Government
enter-

Wage
accruals
less
disbursements

.0

24.5
27.2
29.1
34.7
55.7

116.2
133.3
153.1
170.3
196.3

411.2
450.4
495.6
577.0
666.5

139.8
150.4
164.1
189.8
218.1

169.8
182.2
201.8
239.4
279.2

66.3
74.7
79.1
86.7
90.1

28.4
33.5
40.6
50.6
66.2

6.9
9.7
9.9
10.5
13.1

25.0
28.1
29.4
38.9
58.5

118.5
137.2
159.5
174.1
204.3

421.1
461.0
509.7
602.1
688.2

172.8
185.6
209.2
251.4
286.6

67.5
77.3
80.5
88.7
87.7

29.1
35.2
42.4
53.1
71.9

8.2
9.5
9.2
11.7
13.1

40.2
47.7

174.0
179.8

615.4
639.9

266.3
271.9

88.9
92.7

53.3
56.0

13.6
12.3

57.5
61.5
57.8
57.2
48.7
49.8
50.8

199.9
202.8
206.1
208.4

659.7
667.5
698.2
727.4

274.0
276.7
295.1
300.7

90.2
90.6
86.3
83.6

66.3
68.3
74.0
79.0

12.2
13.7
13.0
13.6

-.1

214.9
216.2
217.5

728.3
736.6
769.7

143.4
153.6
168.3
197.2
228.9
193.3
207.0
217.0
218.2
230.0
250.5
'249.7
244.3
259.0

303.2
312.8
327.4

83.0
85.0
82.0

79.6
82.8
88.7

12.7
11.6
12.6

-.2
.0
.0

Sources: Department of Commerce Bureau of Eec nomic AnaSy is), Departmerj t of the Treast V,
and Office of Management and Budget

34

Purchases
of goods
and
services

Grantsin-aid to
State
and
local
governments

.0
-.0
.0

.1

.0
.0
.0
-.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.2

national
income
and
product
accounts

-45.3
-36.1
-14.8
-51.9
-51.9
-45.9
-29.5
-16.1
-61.4
-60.0
-73.1
-65.2
-39.7
-40.5
-58.0
-101.7
-118.4
-119.6
-156.0

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
[1967 = 100]

Consume r prices (imadjusted)

Indu strial proc uction (sestsonally adju sted)
Period

United
States *

Canada

Japan

France

Germany

114.3
117.4
123.0

127.0
132.2
123.6
118.8

161.2
170.5
181.5
195.4
217.4
246.8
272.4

160.1
172.1
185.9
202.5
221.0
243.5
273.9

205.8
224.9
243.0
252.3
261.3
282.2
296.2

178.9
196.1
214.5
233.9
259.1
294.2
332.7

144.2
150.4
155.9
160.2
166.8
175.9
186.3

186.8
218.1
255.2
286.2
328.5
398.0
472.4

216.5
252.4
292.4
316.6
359.0
423.6
473.9

159.2

118.9

281.5

286.7

299.8

352.4

190.7

511.1

496.1

156.7
164.1
161.4
161.3
160.4
154.0
158.6
127.5
153.6
147.4

118.5
119.4
119.8
120.0
120.8
118.5
119.8
119.9
119.9

282.5
283.4
283.1
284.3
287.1
290.6
292.2
292.8
293.3
294.1
293.6

288.7
292.1
295.8
297.5
301.5
304.5
306.1
307.6
309.2
311.2
313.3

300.7
299.8
300.4
302.9
303.8
303.8
301.5
303.8
309.1
310.0

356.0
359.6
363.8
368.2
371.1
373.7
374.7
375.9
377.5
379.5

192.3
192.8
193.1
194.0
195.2
197.1
197.6
197.3
197.9

517.7
524.4
529.1
533.9
539.8
545.2
553.4
563.4
571.3
582.7
590.3

499.0
499.1
503.5
513.6
517.3
518.9
518.9
519.0
518.7
521.3
523.9

Canada

Japan

France

Germany

140.3
148.5
152.2
157.8
167.4
164.6
167.3

163.9
182.0
189.7
201.1
217.7
232.5
239.3

139
149
152
154
161
160
157

137.1
149.1
152.0
154.1
161.8
162.3
160.0

127.6

1977
1978r
1979 r
1980 r
1981 r

117.8
130.5
138.2
146.1
152.5
147.0
151.0

143.5
145.1
147.9
157.6
166.5
162.7

1981: Decr

143.4

158.9

245.1

140.7
142.9
141.7
140.2
139.2
138.7
138.8
138.4
137.3
136.2
135.6

157.8
156.5

243.8
242.0
245.1
240.7
236.4
241.8
243.0
242.3
245.1
239.3

162
156
156
157
156
157
157
152
152
154

158

1982: Jan '
Peb r
Mar '.
Apr '.
May r
June r
July r
Aug r
Sept r
Oct r
Nov"

160
163
163
161
160
157
151
157
152

1975
1976

1

154.1
152.4
153.6
149.7
145.4
151.3
145.9

United
Kingdom

United
Kingdom

United
States

Italy

198.5

Italy

Source; National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, Internationa! Trade Administration, Office of Trade Investment and Analysis, Trade Performance Division, in International
Economic Indicators.

Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers.

U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period

foreign
exports

Geileral imporl s

Domestic exports

Total
domestic
Total 2

Food,
beverages, and
tobacco

Crude
materials and
fuels

Merchandise trade jalance

Merc mndise imp orts

Her shandise expc rts *

factured
goods

Total 2

Food,
beverages, and
tobacco

Crude
materials and
fuels

3

Exports

faetured
goods

Total
(c.i.f.
value)

4,602
4,257
5,398
6,379
8,360
9,352
10,427

9,240
8,823
11,042
13,368
15,504
18,519
21,415

11,873
13,127
12,826
11,414
12,584
11,527
12,402
10,337
13,219
12,899
10,982
14,111
12,434
12,028

22,779
24,194
23,568
20,699
23,870
19,900
21,237
18,165
21,509
22,259
20,449
24,578
21,580
22,024
19,783

less
imports
(customs
value)

Exports
(f.a.s.)

Exports
(f.a.s.)

imports
(f.a.s.)

imports
(c.i.f.)

]^.a.s. valu

Monthly average:
1974*
1975*
1976*
1977*
1978*
1979*
1980

8,174

8,971
9,602
10,103
11,973
15,155
18,386

8,053
8,842
9,456
9,912
11,753
14,869
18,036

1,269

1,399
1,436
1,330
1,717
2,049
2,534

1,317
1,266
1,341
1,548
1,746
2,352
2,810

5,294
5,913
6,437
6,679
7,873
9,716
11,991

8,547
8,209
10,290
12,533
14,563
17,455
20,406

892
827
991
1,186
1,312
1,478
1,546

2,672
2,716
3,457
4,463
4,325
5,949
7,831

-372
762

-688
-2,430
-2,590
-2,300
-2,020

- 1,065
148
-1,440
-3,265
-3,530
-3,364
-3,030

Customs value

1981
1981:

Oct
Nov
Dec
1982: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov

19,473
19,163
19,153
18,885
18,737
18,704
18,602
17,843
18,218
18,822
18,027
17,498
17,387
16,698
15,693

19,075
18,733
18,751
18,377
18,350
18,341
18,127
17,441
17,807
18,386
17,638
17,177
16,651
16,310
15,317

2,767
2,920
2,675
2,515
2,279
2,482
2,673
2,506
2,478
2,421
1,896
2,162
1,909
2,132
2,086

2,752
2,863
2,872
2,934
3,076
3,434
3,151
2,898
2,912
2,797
2,617
2,642
2,832
2,665
2,361

12,857
12,458
12,590
12,318
12,463
11,876
11,822
11,428
11,837
12,563
12,590
11,882
11,334
10,987
10,369

21,748
23,077
22,508
19,746
22,829
19,090
20,349
17,387
20,558
21,310
19,559
23,494
20,644
21,096

1
Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginning
January 1978.
2
Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.
3
Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.
NOTE.—Imports on c.i.f. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods.




1,529
1,583
1,413
1,542
1,340
1,154
1,529
1,435
1,569
1,567
1,389
1,617
1,581
1,667

7,739
7,642
7,468
6,174
8,269
5,845
5,717
5,033
4,906
6,198
6,645
7,168
5,968
6,711

-2,275
-3,914
-3,356
-861
4,092
-387
1,747
-456
-2,340
-2,488
1,532
-5,996
-3,257
-4,398

-3,306
-5,031
-4,415
-1,814
-5,134
-1,197
-2,635
-322
-3,291
-3,437
-2,422
-7,080
-4,192
-5,326
-4,090

Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Islands exports are reflected only in the figures for total domestic and foreign exports and trade balance.
* Data for 1974-79 for total domestic and foreign exports, total general imports, and trade balance include trade of the Virgin Islands.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

35

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
In the third quarter, there was a current account deficit of $4.2 billion compared to a surplus of $2.2 billion in the
second quarter. The merchandise trade deficit rose sharply to $12.5 billion from $5.7 billion in the second quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
10

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
10

-15

1982

SOURCE;

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits (—)]
Merchandise '
Period

In vestment incorne 3

2

Net
military
transactions

transportation

services,
net 3

Balance
on goods
and

Bemittances,
pensions,
and other
unilateral
transfers 1

Balance
on

current
account

Exports

Imports

balance

Net

Receipts

Payments

71,410
98,306
107,088
114,745
120,816
142,054
184,473
224,237
236,254

-70,499
-103,649
-98,041
-124,051
-151,689
-175,813
-211,819
-249,575
-264,143

911
-5,343
9,047
-9,306
-30,873
-33,759
-27,346
-25,338
-27,889

21,808
27,587
25,351
29,286
32,179
42,245
64,129
72,686
85,945

-9,655
-12,084
-12,564
-13,311
-14,217
-21,680
-32,914
-42,776
-52,908

12,153
15,503
12,787
15,975
17,962
20,565
31,215
29,910
33,037

-2,070
-1,653
-746
559
1,528
621
2,035
-2,471
-1,541

3,158
-3,184
2,792
-2,558
3,293
-3,125
-2,429
-940
231

3,184
3,986
4,598
4,711
5,224
5,955
5,690
7,144
7,702

1980: m
IV

55,786
57,856

-59,735
-63,046

-3,949
-5,190

17,848
18,877

-10,485
-11,518

7,363
7,359

-286
-742

-114
-174

1,810

1,879

4,824
3,131

-1,444
-2,195

3,380
936

1981: I

60,683
60,284
57,694
57,593

-64,995
-66,831
-65,539
-66,778

-4,312
-6,547
-7,845
-9,185

20,528
21,642
22,048
21,727

- 12,405
-13,441
-13,865
13,198

8,123
8,201
8,183
8,529

-487
-587
61
-528

-495
139
200
203

1,838
1,981
1,960
1,924

4,667
2,909
2,559
943

-1,422
-1,510
-1,808
-1,870

3,245
1,399
751
-927

55,780
55,174
52,480

-61,653
-60,869
-64,938

5,873
-5,695
- 12,458

20,890
22,562
21,880

- 14,029
-14,874
-14,462

6,861
7,688
7,418

167
247
527

-66
-319
-201

2,034
2,050
2,140

3,123
3,971
-2,574

-2,048
-1,740
- 1,653

1,075
2,231
-4,227

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977

1978
1979
1980
1981

n
ra
IV

1982: I 'r

n
m
"-

1

Excludes military grants.
Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage.
Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments
inves
in the
United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net.
a

3

36



Net

services l
11,021
9,309
22,893
9,382
-9,451
-9,743
5,095
8,303
11,079

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis-

7,140
-3,881
2,124
-7,186
18,280
-4,613
4,384
-4,998
-4,617 -14,068
-5,030 -14,773
-5,561
466
-6,783
1,520
-6,608
4,471

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $21.0 billion in the third quarter,
compared with an increase of $36.9 billion in the second quarter. Liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S.
banks increased $11.5 billion in the third quarter, following an increase of $24.6 billion in the second quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
60

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
60

-20

-20

-40

-40

J

-60

1-60

1982

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCft OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
U.S. assets abroad, net

Foreign assets in the 1 J.S., net
[increas i/ capital inflo\v (+)] 2

[increase /capit a.1 outflow (— )
Period
Total

U.S.
private
assets

Total

Foreign
official
assets

Other
foreign
assets

158
1,467
-849
2,558
-375
732
-1,133
8,155
-5,175

-2,644
366
-3,474
4,214
-3,693
4,660
-3,743
-5,126
-5,137

-20,388
-33,643
-35,380
-44,498
-30,717
-57,202
-59,469
-72,746
98,982

18,388
34,241
15,670
36,518
51,319
64,036
38,460
54,484
77,921

6,026
10,546
7,027
17,693
36,816
33,678
-13,697
15,442
4,785

12,362
23,696
8,643
18,826
14,503
30,358
52,157
39,042
73,136

m
IV

- 19,635
-28,512

-1,109
-4,279

-1,390
1,154

-17,136
-23,079

12,647
25,356

7,541
7,678

5,106
17,677

I

-22,796
-21,566
-17,257
-47,677

-4,529
-905
-4
262

-1,375
-1,518
1,257
-987

- 16,892
-19,143
- 15,996
-46,952

8,470
13,464
16,880
39,107

5,361
-2,861
-5,835
8,119

3,109
16,324
22,715
30,988

-31,201
-37,790
-26,364

-1,089
-1,132
-794

-904
- 1,547
-2,418

29,208
-35,111
23,152

25,080
29,619
16,054

-3,122
1,998
2,102

28,202
27,621
13,952

1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

1981:

Other U.S.
Government
assets

-22,874
-34,745
-39,703
-51,269
-34,785
-61,130
-64,344
-86,026
- 109,294

1973
1974
1975

1980:

U.S.
official
reserve
assets 1 z

n
m
IV

1982: I rr

n
mp

1
Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve
position in the IMF.
3
Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.




Statistical d screpancy
Allocations
drawing
rights
(SDRs)

1,139
1,152
1,093

1,093

Total (sum
of the items
with sign
reversed)

Of which:
Seasonal
adjustment
discrepancy

TJ g Officiai
reserve
assets, net '
(unadjusted,
end of
period)
14,378
15,883
16,226
18,747
19,312
18,650
18,956
26,756
30,074

-2,654
-1,620
5,753
10,367
-2,465
11,866
25,212
28,870
25,809
3,608
2,219

-2,754
2,605

22,994
26,756

9,988
6,703
-374
9,497

-829
503
-2,144
2,474

30,410
29,582
29,715
30,074

5,045
5,940
14,537

-899
574
-1,973

29,944
30,671
30,993

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the
Treasury.

37

Contents
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING

page

Gross National Product
Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product
Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures
Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits
National Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Sources of Personal Income
Disposition of Personal Income
Farm Income
Corporate Profits
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment—Nonfarm Business

1
2
2
3
3
4.
4
5
6
1
8
9
10

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
Status of the Labor Force
Selected Unemployment Rates
Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours arid Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector

11
12
13
14
15
15
16

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures
New Construction
New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates
Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

17
18
19
19
20
21

PRICES
Producer Prices
Consumer Prices
Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods
Changes in Consumer Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers

22
23
24
24
25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets
Components of Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets
Consumer Installment Credit
Bank Loans and Investments, and Reserves
Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarrn Nonfinancial Corporate Business
Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations
Interest Rates and Bond Yields
Common Stock Prices and Yields

26
27
27
28
29
29
30
31

FEDERAL FINANCE
Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt
Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function
Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis

32
33
34

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries
U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports
U.S. International Transactions

35
35
36

General Notes
Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.
Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.
Symbols used:
" Preliminary.
r
Revised.
... Not available (also, not applicable).
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Washington, D.C. 20402. Price $2.75 (single copy) ($3.45 foreign).
Subscription price: $21.00 per year; $26.25 for foreign mailing.

38




O

U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1982

0—13-372