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97th Congress, 1st Session

Economic Indicators
DECEMBER 1981

Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the




Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1981

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
HENRY S. REUSS, Wisconsin, Chairman
ROGER W. JEPSEN, Iowa, Vice Chairman
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
RICHARD BOLLING (Missouri)
LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana)
GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana)
PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland)
FREDERICK W. RICHMOND (New York)
CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio)
MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts)
JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California)
CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio)

SENATE
WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)
JAMES ABDNOR (South Dakota)
STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho)
PAULA HAWKINS (Florida)
MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia)
LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas)
WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin)
EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)
PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland)

JAMES K. GALBRAITH, Executive Director

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
MURRAY L. WEIDENBAUM, Chairman
WILLIAM A. NISKANEN
JERRY L. JORDAN

[PUBLIC LAW 120—Slsx CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint
Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a
sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at
Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to
the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the joint Economic
Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository
libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.

Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.75 a single copy
($3.45 foreign), or by subscription at $21.00 per year ($26.25 for foreign
mailing) from:
SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402
The 1980 Supplement to Economic Indicators, which describes each series and gives annual data
for years not shown in the monthly issues, is available at $5.00 a copy from the Superintendent of
Documents, Government Printing Office. It should be noted that many of the series have undergone
major revisions since the Supplement was published in the fall of 1980.

11




TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
According to revised estimates for the third quarter, gross national product rose $79.2 billion or 11.4 percent, both
at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 1.4 percent from the second quarter level and the
implicit price deflator rose at a 9.9 percent annual rate.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
3,000

(RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
3,000

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

2,800

2,800

2,600

2,600

2,400

2,400

2,200

2,200

2,000

2,000

GNP
IN CURRENT DOLLARS

\

1,800

1,800

1,600

1,600

1,400

1,400
GNP
IN 1972 DOLLARS

1,200

1,200

J

L
1973

J
1974

1975

1976

1977

I

L

1979

1978

I

I

I

1980

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

I

I

I

1981

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

Gross
national
product

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Gross
private
domestic
investment

Export s and imp»orts of
gooc is and services

Go^/eminent purchases of goods and
services

Federal
Net
exports

State
and
local

Final
sales

Total

National
defense

220. 1
234.9
253. 1
270. 4
304. 1
339.9
362. 1
394.5
432.6
473.8
534.7

95.7
96.2
101.7
102.0
111.0
122. 7
129.2
143.9
153.4
167.9
198.9

73.6
70.2
73. 1
72.8
77.0
83.0
86.0
93.3
100.0
111.2
131.7

22.2
26.0
28.5
29. 1
33.9
39.7
43.2
50.6
53. 4
56. 7
67.2

124.4
138.7
151.4
168.5
193. 1
217.2
232.9
250.6
279.2
305.9
335.8

989.5
1, 070. 0
1, 175. 7
1, 307. 9
1, 420. 1
1, 556. 1
1, 706. 2
1, 897. 0
2, 133. 9
2, 396. 4
2, 632. 0

Exports

Imports

Total

59.0
64.7
76.7
95.4
132.8
128. 1
157. 1
187.5
220. 4
267.9
316.5

Nondefense

992.7 621. 7
1, 077. 6 672.2
1, 185. 9 737. 1
1, 326, 4 812.0
1, 434. 2 888. 1
1, 549. 2 976.4
1, 718. 0 1, 084. 3
1, 918. 0 1, 205. 5
2, 156. 1 1, 348. 7
2, 413. 9 1, 510. 9
2, 626. 1 1, 672. 8

144.2
166.4
195.0
229. 8
228.7
206. 1
257.9
322. 3
375. 3
415.8
395.3

14.2
13.4
26.8
13.8
—4.2
-.6
13.4
23.3

65.7
68.8
77.5
109.6
146.2
154.9
170. 9
183.3
219.8
281. 3
339.8

2, 571. 7 1, 631. 0
1980: I
II___ 2, 564. 8 1, 626. 8
III_. 2, 637. 3 1, 682. 2
IV___ 2, 730. 6 1, 751. 0

415.6
390. 9
377. 1
397.7

8.2
17.1
44.5
23.3

337.3
333.3
342. 4
346. 1

329. 1
316.2
297.9
322. 7

516.8
530.0
533.5
558. 6

190. 0
198.7
194. 9
212.0

125.0
128.7
131.4
141. 6

64.9
70.0
63.5
70.4

326.8
331.3
338. 6
346.6

2,
2,
2,
2,

1981: !__-_ 2, 853. 0 1, 810. 1
II— _ 2, 885. 8 1, 829. 1
III... 2, 965. 0 1, 883. 9

437. 1
458. 6
463.0

29.2
20.8
29.3

367.4
368.2
368.0

338.2
347.5
338. 7

576.5
577.4
588. 9

221.6
219. 5
226.4

145.2
148.2
154. 1

76.4
71.3
72.2

354.9
357.9
362. 5

2, 848. 5
2, 862. 5
2, 937. 6

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

6.7
4. 1

.7

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




569.
557.
653.
748.

1
4
4
0

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS
[Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

Personal
conGross
national sumption
product
expenditures

Gross private dc>mestie
i] ivestment

Nonresidential
fixed

Residential
fixed

Ex]sorts of gcsods
and service3S

Change
in busiMa*
IN CD
ness in- exports
ventories

Governiaient pure bases of
gooc is and ser vices

Exports Imports

Total

Federal

State
and
local

Final
sales

1, 085. 6
1, 122. 4
1, 185. 9
1, 255. 0
1, 248. 0
1, 233. 9
1, 300. 4
1, 371. 7
1, 436. 9
1, 483. 0
1, 480. 7

672. 1
696.8
737. 1
768.5
763. 6
780.2
823.7
863.9
904.8
930.9
935.1

113. 8
112.2
121. 0
138. 1
135.7
119.3
125. 6
140.6
153.4
163.3
158.4

41.0
53.7
63.8
62.3
48.2
42.2
51.2
60.6
62.4
59. 1
48.1

3.8
8. 1
10.2
17.2
11.6
-6.7
7.8
12.3
14.0
10.2
-2.9

3.9
1.6
.7
15.5
27.8
32.2
25.4
21.9
24. 6
37.7
52.0

70. 5
71.0
77.5
97.3
108. 5
103.6
110. 1
113.2
127. 5
146.9
161. 1

66.6
69. 3
76.7
81. 8
80.7
71. 4
84.7
91. 3
103.0
109. 2
109. 1

251. 1
250. 1
253. 1
253.5
261. 2
266.7
266. 8
272.3
277.8
281.8
290.0

110.6
103.7
101.7
95. 9
96.6
97.4
96.8
100. 7
99.8
101.7
108.1

140.5
146.4
151. 4
157.6
164.5
169.3
170.0
171.6
178.0
180. 1
181.9

1, 081. 8
1, 114. 3
1, 175. 7
1, 237. 8
1, 236. 4
1, 240. 6
1, 292. 7
1, 359. 3
1, 422. 9
1, 472. 9
1, 483. 6

1980: I— , 1, 501. 9
II... 1, 463. 3
III.. 1, 471. 9
IV... 1, 485. 6

943.4
919.3
930.8
946.8

165.0
156. 1
155.5
157.0

54.2
43. 1
44.7
50.6

-.9
1.3
-5.0
-7.2

50. 1
51.7
57.6
48.5

165.9
160.5
160. 5
157.4

115. 8
108.9
102.8
108.9

290. 1
291.9
288.2
289.8

107.6
110.7
106.9
107.4

182. 5
181.2
181.3
182.4

1, 502. 8
1, 462. 0
1, 476. 9
1, 492. 7

1981: I.... 1, 516. 4

960.2
955. 1
962.8

162.0
161.1
163.9

51.0
47.8
42.7

-1.4
10.8
14.9

50.9
46.2
43.2

162.5
161.5
160. 1

111.6
115.4
116.9

293.6
289. 5
288.3

111.2
108.7
109. 6

182.5
180.7
178.8

1, 517. 8
1, 499. 6
1, 500. 9

1970
1971.
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

II— 1, 510. 4
Ill- 1, 515. 8

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
[1972=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]

Gross
national
product

Period

PersonaI consump>tion expe nditures

Total

NonDurable durable
goods

Gross private
dom estic
invesifcment

NonresServices idential

fixed

Residential
fixed

Expor ts and
imports of goods
and scjrvices

Governnnent purchases of goods
and s<srvices

Exports Imports Federal

State
and
local

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

91.45
96.01
100. 00
105. 69
114. 92
125. 56
132. 11
139. 83
150. 05
162. 77
177. 36

92.5
96.5
100.0
105. 7
116.3
125.2
131.6
139. 5
149. 1
162. 3
178.9

95.7
99.0
100.0
101.7
108.2
117. 3
123.9
129.2
136.2
144.8
156.0

93.6
96.6
100.0
108.3
123. 1
132. 1
137.0
143.4
153.2
169. 8
188.6

90.5
95.6
100.0
104.7
113.0
121.6
129. 6
139.9
150. 1
162. 1
178. 1

91.3
96.2
100.0
103.8
115. 4
132.2
138. 6
146.2
157.7
171.3
186.8

90.5
94.8
100.0
109. 1
120. 3
131.0
140.7
158. 0
178.3
200. 5
218.6

93.2
97.0
100.0
112. 7
134.7
149. 6
155.2
161. 9
172.4
191. 5
211.0

88.6
93.3
100.0
116. 7
164.6
179.5
185.5
205. 4
214.0
245.4
290. 1

86.6
92.7
100.0
106.3
114.9
126.0
133.5
142. 9
153.7
165. 1
183.9

88.
94.
100.
106.
117.
128.
137.
146.
156.
169.
184.

1980: I
II
III
IV

171. 23
175. 28
179. 18
183. 81

172.9
177.0
180.7
184.9

151.9
154. 1
157.5
160.5

182.9
186.2
190.0
195.2

171.6
176.0
180.3
184.3

180.5
185.7
189. 1
192.4

212.6
217.4
221.9
223.3

203.4
207. 6
213.4
219.9

284.2
290.4
289.7
296.4

176.5
179.5
182.4
197.4

179. 1
182.8
186.7
190.0

1981: I
II
III

188. 14
191. 06
__ 195. 61

188.5
191.5
195. 7

162.3
165.4
168.3

200.4
203.7

199.2

188.4
192.2
197.6

195.0
201.4

228.7
231.8
235.4

226. 1
228.0
229.8

303. 1
301.2
289.8

199.4
201.9
206.6

194.5
198.0
202.8

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




204.5

6
7
0
9
4
3
0
0
9
8
7

CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES
[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gross iaational p roduct

Constant
(1972)
dollars

Current
dollars

Period

Implicit
price
deflator

Fixedweighted
price
index
(1972
weights)

Chain
price
index

Constant
(1972)
dollars

Current
dollars

Implicit
price
deflator

Chain
price
index

Fixedweighted
price
index
(1972
weights)

5.0
5.3
4.9
4. 1
5.9
9.1
9.2
5.7
6.2
7.5
8.7
8.6

5.0
5.2
4.8
4.0
5.9
9.4
9.0
5.8
6.4
7.6
9.4
9.6

8.4
6.9
8.1
9.6
10.2
9.4
9.9
11.0
11.2
11.9
12.0
10.7

3.7
2.2
3.7
5.8
43
-.6
2.2
5. 6
49
4.7
2.9
.5

45
46
43
3.7
5.7
10. 1
7.6
5.2
6.0
6.8
8.9
10.2

4.5
4.6
4.3
3.6
6.0
10.3
7.7
5.3
6.3
7.1
9.3
10.6

44
45
42
3.5
6.0
10.4
7.8
5. 3
6.3
7.2
9.6
11.0

9.3
9.8
9.2
10.7

8.7
8.8
9.3
10.5

9.7
9.3
9.0
10.4

12.9
-1.0
14.3
17.4

.8
-9.8
5. 1
7.0

12.0
9.8
8.8
9.7

12.5
9.7
9.5
10. 1

13.2
9.9
9. 5
10.1

9.8
6.4
9.9

9.8
7.7
10.0

10.2
7.9
9.5

14.2
43
12.5

5.8
-2.1
3.3

8.0
6.5
9.0

10.3
6.5
8.7

10.9
6.5
8.2

8.1
5.2
8.6
10. 1
11.8
8. 1
8.0
10.9
11.6
12.4
12.0

as

2.8
-.2
3.4
5.7
5.8
-.6
-1.1
5.4
5.5
4.8
3.2
-.2

5. 1
5.4
5.0
4.2
5.7
8.7
9.3
5.2
5.8
7.3
8.5
9.0

1980: 1
II
III
IV

12.6
-1. 1
11.8
149

3. 1
-9.9
2.4
3.8

1981: 1
II
III

19.2
4.7
11.4

8.6
— 1. 6
1.4

1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

Per sonal conssumption expenditures

,

NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are
from previous quarter.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

Gross d omestic
produlet of
nonfin ancial
corpc>rate
busi ness
(billic ns of
doll Etrs)
Current
dollars

1972
dollars

544 1
1969
1970
563.7
609.9
1971
1972
678.0
759.4
1973
1974
818.9
1975
890.0
1976
1, 001. 3
1977
1, 129. 5
1978
1, 270. 7
1979
1, 417. 0
1980
1, 535. 2
1979:111.. 1, 432. 1
IV__. 1, 457. 7
1980: I
1, 502. 1
II. __ 1, 496. 3
III — 1, 537. 7
IV
1, 604 7
1981: I
1, 690. 1
II
1, 716. 3
Ill- 1, 760. 3

604.0
599. 6
626.8
678.0
731.9
708.2
6942
745. 5
799.0
845. 1
873.3
867.2
8743
873.4
878.2
853.2
860.4
876. 9
901.0
901.2
901. 1

Current-dol lar cost a nd profit per unit of outpu t (dollars) i

Total
cost
and
profit 2

0.901
. 940
. 973
1.000
1. 038
1. 156
1.282
1.343
1.414
1.504
1.623
1.770
1.638
1.669
1.710
1.754
1.787
1.830
1.876
1. 904
1.954

Capital
consumption
Comallowpenances Indirect
sation
business
with
3
of
capital taxes
employconees
sumption
adjustment
0.078
. 087
.091
.092
.093
. 112
.137
. 141
. 146
. 153
. 169
. 191
. 172
. 175
. 180
. 192
. 196
. 197
. 197
.204
. 211

0.096
. 106
. 113
. 113
. 114
.127
. 140
. 141
. 144
. 148
.153
.176
. 154
.157
.161
. 173
. 181
. 188
. 199
.202
.206

1 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonflnancial corporate
business
in 1972 dollars.
2
This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonflnancial corporate
business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left.
1
Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments
less subsidies.




Net
interest

Corpc>rate profi ts with
invent ory valualbion and
capil,al consun iption
iidjustmen ts

Total

0. 594 0.022 0. 112
.028
.088
.631
. 641 . 029 .099
.028
.107
.659
.031
. 107
.692
. 042 .090
.786
.044
.124
.837
. 040
. 144
.878
. 158
. 924 .042
.044
. 163
.996
.052
1.092
.157
.065
.143
1. 196
. 154
.053
1. 104
. 146
.056
1. 135
.151
.060
1.158
.064
. 132
1. 193
. 141
1.203
.067
. 146
1.230
.068
. 169
1.244
. 067
. 163
. 070
1.266
. 073 . 169
1.295

Profits
tax
liability
0. 055
.045
.047
.049
.055
.059
.059
.071
.074
.080
. 080
.073
.081
.078
.085
.061
.070
.075
.076
.064
.066

Profits
after4
tax
0.057
.043
.052
.058
.053
.030
.065
.073
.084
.083
.077
.070
.074
.067
.066
.071
.071
.071
.093
.098
. 103

ComOutput
pener
sation
P
hour
per
of all
hour
employof all
ees
employ(1972
ees
dollars) (dollars)

7.098
7. 126
7.467
7.688
7.891
7.622
7. 881
8. 132
8.348
8.384
8.384
8.432
8.388
8.338
8.369
8.359
8.496
8.496
8.628
8.674
8.660

4213
4.498
4788
5.068
5.458
5.989
6.596
7. 138
7.713
8.347
9.159
10. 085
9.260
9.462
9.694
9.973
10. 218
10. 450
10. 737
10. 978
11.216

* With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics).

NATIONAL INCOME
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

ConaNational
income

Period

tion of
employees1

Propri etors'
inconn3 with
inventor y valuation anc capital
consuiiaption
adjust ments

Farm

Corpor ate profits3 with inv entory va luation
and capital consumptioia adjustm ents
Profits with inv<3ntory
valual"Aon adjus bment
and ^without ca pital
consum ption adjiistment

of per-

with
capital
consumption
adjustment

Total
Total

Profits
before
tax

Inventory
valua-

Capital
consumption
adjustment

Net
Interest

adjustment

14. 3
15.0
18.7
32.8
26. 5
24.6
19. 1
18. 4
26. 1
30.8
23.4

51.9
54.4
58. 1
61.0
62.2
65.4
75.0
85. 1
91. 0
100.7
107.2

19.7
20. 2
21.0
22. 6
23.5
23.0
23. 5
25. 1
27.4
30.5
31.8

71.4
83.2
96.6
108.3
94. 9
110. 5
138. 1
164.7
185.5
196.8
182.7

68.9
82. 0
94. 0
105.6
96.7
120.6
151. 6
176.7
199.0
212.7
199.8

75.4
86.6
100.6
125.6
136.7
132. 1
166.3
192. 6
223.3
255.4
245.5

-6.6
-4.6
6.6
-20. 0
40.0
-11.6
-14.7
-15.8
-24. 3
-42.6
-45.7

2.5
1.3
2.7
2.7
-1.8
-10. 1
-13.5
-12.0
-13.5
-15.9
-17.2

41.4
46.5
51. 2
60.2
76.1
84.5
87.2
100.9
115.8
143.4
179.8

0
0
4
8

25.7
23.3
22. 1
22.5

107.9
101. 6
107.6
111.6

31.2
31. 5
32.0
32.4

200.2
169.3
177.9
183.3

215.6
186.9
195.9
201.0

277.1
217.9
237.6
249.5

-61.4
-31. 1
-41.7
-48.4

-15.4
-17.6
-17.9
-17.8

165.4
175.3
185.3
193.3

2, 291. 1 1, 722. 4
2, 320. 9 1, 752. 0
._ 2, 377. 6 1, 790. 7

18.9
21.7
24.7

113.2
112.5
112.4

32.7
33.3
33.9

203.0
190.3
195.7

217.7
205. 1
209.1

257.0
229. 0
234.4

-39.2
-24.0
-25.3

-14.7
-14.7
-13.4

200.8
211.0
220.2

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

810.7
871.5
963.6
1, 086. 2
1, 160. 7
1, 239. 4
1, 379. 2
1, 546. 5
1, 745. 4
1, 963. 3
2, 121. 4

612.0
652.2
718.0
801. 3
877.5
931.4
1, 036. 3
1, 152. 3
1, 299. 7
1, 460. 9
1, 596. 5

1980: I
II
III
IV

2, osa 5

1, 558.
2, 070. 0 1, 569.
2, 122. 4 1, 597.
2, 204. 8 1, 661.

1981: I
II
III-

Nonfarm

Rental

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

»Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.)

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Nondura ble goods

Durable goo(is

Total
personal
consumption
expenditures

Total
durable1
goods

Motor
vehicles
and
parts

621.7
672.2
737. 1
...
812.0
888. 1
976.4
1, 084. 3
1, 205. 5
1, 348. 7
1, 510. 9
1, 672. 8

85.2
97.2
111. 1
123.3
121.5
132.2
156.8
178.8
199.3
212.3
211.9

36.2
45.4
52. 4
57. 1
50.4
55.8
72.6
85.0
94.3
95. 5
89.9

Furniture
and
household
equipment
35.2
37.2
41.7
47. 1
50.6
53.5
59. 1
65.8
72.9
81. 1
84.6

1, 631. 0
1, 626. 8
1, 682. 2
1, 751. 0

220.9
1944
208.8
223.3

100.6
77.5
87.0
94.6

1, 810. 1
1981: I
1, 829. 1
II
III.— 1, 883. 9

238.3
227.3
236.2

105.4
93.4
101.6

Period

1970
1971
1972_
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

_

1980: I
II
III__IV._

i Total includes other items not shown separately.

4



Total
nondurable1
goods

Food

Retail isales of
new pa ssenger
cars(niillions
of uilits)

Clothing
and
shoes

Gasoline
and oil

Services
Do- Immes- ports
tics

265.7
278.8
300.6
333.4
373.4
407.3
441. 7
479.0
529.8
602.2
675.7

138.9
144.2
154.9
172. 1
193.7
213. 6
230.6
250. 3
276.4
312. 1
345.7

46.8
50. 6
55.4
61.4
64.8
69.6
75.3
82. 1
91.9
98.9
104.8

22.4
23.9
25.4
28.6
36.6
40.4
44.0
48.2
52. 7
68.4
89.0

270.8
296.2
325. 3
355.2
393.2
437.0
485 7
547.7
619.6
696.3
785.2

7.1
8.7
9.3
9.6
7.4
7.0
8.5
9.0
9.2
8.2
6.6

83.6
81.3
84.6
88.9

661. 1
664.0
674.2
703.5

336.2
338.4
347.7
360.4

102.2
102.3
105.3
109.4

89.4
90.9
85.3
90.5

749.0
768.4
799.2
824.2

7.9
5.4
6.4
6.6

2.7

92.3
92.4
93.2

726.0
735.3
751.3

372.5
377.8
386.5

113.4
115.8
117.5

93.5
92.4
95.1

845.8
866.5
896.4

7.4
5.6
6.9

2.7
2.2
2.2

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

1.3

1. 6

1.6
1.8
1.4
1.6
1.5

2. 1

2.0
2.3
2.4

2. J

2.3
2.5

SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income rose $14.4 billion (annual rate) in November following a rise of $11.9 billion in October. Wages
and salaries rose $10.4 billion in November, compared with increases of $6.2 billion in October and $10.0 billion
in September.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
2,800
2,400
2,000

1,600
1,400
1,200
WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS

1,000

800

800

,„...

600

*""

-j 600

OTHER INCOME

400

400

\ .,„••»*«'

....••••••"•w"

TRANSFER
PAYMENTS

\
200

200

160

160

120

120
100

100

I I I I I I I I I I I II I II

80
1973

1974

1975

1976

LLLL
1977

1978

1979

1980

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Period

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

!

80

1981

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC

[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted
Wage
3
Rental Persona]
Total
and
Other Propriet 3rs' income income
personal salary
labor 12
dividend
of
income disburseincome
Farm
Nonfarm persons 4 income
l
ments

annual rates]
Less: PerNonPersona] Transfer sonal confarm
interest
pay- 5 tributions personal
income ments
for social income 6
insurance

1, 065. 2
702.7
765. 7
1, 168. 6
806.4
1, 265. 0
1, 391. 2
889.9
983. 8
1, 538. 0
1, 721. 8 1, 105. 2
1, 943. 8 1, 236. 1
2, 160. 2 1, 343. 7

48.8
55. 8
64.5
75.9
89. 0
102.2
118.6
137. 1

32.8
26. 5
24. 6
19. 1
18.4
26. 1
30.8
23.4

61.0
62. 2
65. 4
75.0
85. 1
91. 0
100. 7
107.2

22.6
23. 5
23.0
23.5
25. 1
27.4
30.5
31.8

26. 5
29. 1
29.9
36. 5
38.7
43. 1
48.6
54.4

93.9
112.4
123.2
132. 5
151.6
173. 2
209. 6
256.3

119.5
141.2
178.3
194. 3
207.5
223. 3
249.4
294.2

42.6
47.9
50. 4
55.5
61. 1
69. 6
80.6
87. 9

1, 023. 7
1, 131. 8
1? 229. 1
1, 359. 3
1, 505. 0
1, 679. 2
1, 892. 9
2, 112. 6

1980: N o v _ _ _ 2, 257. 6 1, 400. 4
Dec
2, 276. 6 1, 411. 2

143.5
145. 0

22. 6
22. 6

111.5
111. 6

32.4
32. 5

55.9
56.7

269. 4
274. 1

313.2
314.7

91. 4
91.9

2, 209. 7
2, 228, 5

1981: Jan
2, 300. 7
Feb
2, 318. 2
Mar
2, 340. 4
Apr
2, 353. 8
May
2, 367. 4
June
2, 384. 3
July_.._ 2, 419. 2
2, 443. 4
Aug
Sept__._ 2, 462. 6
Oct *____ 2, 474. 5
Nov "-_- 2, 488. 9

146.6
148. 0
149. 5
150.9
151.6
153. 0
154.8
156.3
157. 8
159.2
160. 5

19.9
18. 7
18.2
20.2
21.7
23. 2
24.4
25.2
24. 4
22.8
21.4

112. 8
112. 6
114. 2
113.0
112. 2
112. 2
112. 2
112. 4
112. 5
112. 2
111.9

32.5
32. 7
32.9
33. 1
33.3
33. 5
33.7
33.9
34. 1
34. 3
34.5

57.4
58.2
58. 3
59. 4
60. 2
61. 1
62. 4
63. 0
63.5
63.9
64. 1

281. 8
289. 1
295.2
297. 9
300. 6
304. 1
309.2
315. 7
322.3
328. 1
331. 0

318. 4
318.4
321.9
322. 5
323. 5
326. 5
341. 9
341.7
343. 0
343.8
345.3

101.9
102. 3
102,6
102.9
103. 1
103. 3
104.3
105.2
105. 5
106.3
106.8

2, 254. 8
2, 273. 2
2, 295. 4
2, 306. 4
2, 318. 1
2, 333. 1
2, 366. 4
2, 389. 3
2, 409. 0
2, 422. 0
2? 437. 2

1, 433. 1
1, 442. 8
1, 452. 8
1, 459. 6
1, 467. 3
1, 473. 9
1, 484. 9
1, 500. 3
1, 510. 3
1,516.5
1, 526. 9

1
The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs
from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions
for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements.
2
Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare
funds;
workmen's compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items.
s
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.




* With capital consumption adjustment.
s Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans
payments.
6
Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other
labor income, and agricultural net interest.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME
Real per capita disposable income rose again in the third quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

2,200

2,200
2,000

PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME

3,000

3,000
1973
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Less:

Period

Personal
income

sonal
tax
and
nontax
payments

Equals :
Disposable
personal
income

Less:
Personal
outlays 1

Per c apita
dispo sable
persona]I income

Equals :
Personal
saving Current
dollars

951.4
1, 065. 2
1, 168. 6
1, 265. 0
1, 391. 2
1, 538. 0
1, 721. 8
1, 943. 8
2, 160. 2

141. 0
150.7
170. 2
168. 9
196.8
226. 5
258.8
302. 0
33&5

Current
dollars

1972
dollars

Dol lars

Bil lions of d ollars

1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

1972
dollars

Per cap ita personal cc>nsumption exp snditures

810. 3
757.7
835.5
914.5
913.2
998.3
1, 096. 1 1, 001. 8
1, 194. 4 1, 111. 9
1, 311. 5 1, 237. 5
1, 462. 9 1, 386. 6
1, 641. 7 1, 555. 5
1, 821. 7 1, 720. 4

52.6
79.0
85. 1
94.3
82. 5
74. 1
76.3
86.2
101.3

3,860
4,315
4,667
5,075
5,477
5,954
6,571
7,293
8,002

3,860
4,083
4,013
4,055
4,161
4,266
4,409
4,493
4,473

Percent
change Saving
in real as percent of
per
disposcapita
able
disposperable
perincome
sonal
income
Per sent

Population
(thou-2
sands)

3,511
3,831
4,152
4,521
4,972
5,472
6,058
6,712
7,348

3,511
3,626
3,570
3,612
3,777
3,922
4,064
4,135
4,108

2.9
5.8
— 1. 7
1.0
2.6
2.5
3.4
1. 9
-.4

6.5
8.6
8. 5
8.6
6. 9
5.6
5.2
5.2
5.6

209, 924
211, 939
213, 898
215, 981
218, 086
220, 289
222, 629
225, 106
227, 654

Seas onaUy ad; usted ann ual rates
1, 678. 7
1, 674. 1
1, 729. 2
1, 799. 4

86.4
110. 0
111. 4
97.6

7,785
7,848
8,074
8,299

4,503
4,435
4,468
4,488

7,194
7,156
7,379
7,660

4,161
4,044
4,083
4,142

0.2
-5.9
3.0
1.8

4.9
6.2
6. 1
5. 1

226, 727
227, 332
227, 977
228, 578

1981: ! _ _ _ 2, 319. 8 372.0 1, 947. 8 1, 858. 9
II— 2, 368. 5 382.9 1, 985. 6 1, 879. 0
III- 2, 441. 7 399.8 2, 042. 0 1, 935. 1

88.9
106.6
106.9

8,504
8,651
8,873

4,511
4,517
4,535

7,903
7,969
8, 186

4,192
4, 161
4, 184

2. 1
.5
1.6

46
5.4
5.2

229, 051
229, 537
230, 142

1980: I
II
III__
IV. _

2, 088. 2
2, 114. 5
2, 182. 1
2, 256. 2

323. 1
330.3
341.5
359.2

1, 765. 1
1, 784. 1
1, 840. 6
1, 897. 0

1
Includes pe rsonal cons amption ex penditures, i merest paid by consume rs to
business,
and p ersonal trarisfer payme nts to foreiplers (net).
2
Includes Armed Forces abroad. A nnual data iire averages of quarterly <lata,
which are averages for the Ijeriod.

6



So urce: Depart ment of Con;imeree (Bureau of Econonlie Analysis and Bureau
ofth e Census).

FARM INCOME
In the third quarter, according to revised estimates, gross farm income rose $2.5 billion (annual rate) and net farm
income rose $1.4 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
200

[200

100

100

GROSS FARM INCOME

80

80

60

60

40

40
NET FARM INCOME .

20

20

V

v,^,^

J

10

1973

L

1974

J
1975

1976

L

J
1978

1977

1979

L
1980

1981

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Income of farm operators from farming
Grc>ss farm incc>me

Total i

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979 _
1980

_

1980:1
!!____
III___
IV_

_

1981:1
II
III

Total

Livestock
and
products




Crops

Value of
inventory2
changes

Production
expenses

Current
dollars

1967
dollars 8

98.9
98.3
100.3
101.8
108. 7
127.5
151. 9
150.5

87. 1
92.4
88.2
94.8
96.3
112.9
131. 9
136.4

45. 9
41. 4
43.0
46. 1
47. 6
59.2
68. 5
67.4

41. 1
51. 1
45. 1
48.7
48.7
53.7
63.4
69.0

3.4
-1.6
3.4
-2.4
1.0
.6
5. 3
-2. 0

65.6
72.2
75.9
83. 1
90. 3
101. 1
119. 2
130.7

33.3
26. 1
24.5
18.7
18.4
26.5
32. 7
19.9

25. 1
17.7
15.2
11. 0
10. 2
13. 5
15. 1
8. 1

149.3
145. 8
151. 9
155. 1

133.0
131.9
139. 2
141.5

66.3
64.0
68. 9
70.4

66.7
67. 9
70.3
71. 1

.9
-1. 9
3.7
-3. 3

125. 9
128. 9
132. 2
135. 6

23. 4
16.9
19.7
19.5

9. 9
6.9
7. 9
7. 6

158.4
164.8
167.3

142. 5
144. 1
143.7

69.8
68.9
69.3

72. 7
75.2
74.4

-1. 2
3.4
5.9

139.3
141.8
142.9

19. 1
23.0
24.4

7. 2
8.6
8.8

1
Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments,
other
farm cash income, and nonmqney income furnished by farms.
2
Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities
valued at average prices during the year.

8-037 0 - 8 1 - 2

Net farni income

Cash]marketing re3ceipts

Period

* Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index (Department
of Labor).
Note.—Date revised beginning 1981.
Source: Department of Agriculture, except as noted.

CORPORATE PROFITS
In the third quarter, according to revised estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $5.4 billion (annual rate) while
after-tax profits rose $3.6 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

320

320
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

280

280

240

240

200

200

PROFITS BEFORE

160

160

PROFITS AFTER TAX

•>=

120

A.

120

UNDISTRIBUTED PROFITS

*^N

80

80

.-'
TAX LIABILITY

40

40

!

i

1973

I

1974

1

1

!

1975

I

i i

i
1976

1977

1978

1979

i

i

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Period

1970. _ _._
1971 _ _ _
_ .
1972
_.
1973
..__
1974___
1975_ _
. __
1976
1977
. __
1978
1979
1980
.
1980: I
_ _
II .
III___
IV

1981: I
II
III

__

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Pro fits after
)ry valua tion
Profli bs (before tax) wit! i invent(
adjustn lent l
Domesstie indu stries
Tax
Profits
>lonfinanc ;ial
liabefore
Divi2
bility Total dends
Wholetax
Total
Manu- sale
Total Financial
and
Total3 factur- retail
mg
trade
22. 5
34.2
62.4
41.3
12. 1
68.9
75. 4
9.5
50. 2
26. 6
22. 9
82. 0
37.5
34. 1
14. 1
49. 0
74.9
86.6
11.7
60.8
24. 4
41. 6
94.0
85. 3
58. 9
40. 7
13. 4
100.6
70.0
15. 3
27. 0
105. 6
76.6
45.5
49. 0
92.0
125.6
13.9
15.9
76. 0
29.9
51. 6
85. 1
96.7
12. 5
80. 4
39.0
15. 0
65.4
136.7
30. 8
50.6
81.5
132. 1
52. 6
21.3
11.8
120.6
107.6
95. 8
37.4
63.8 102. 5
69.2
22. 4
137. 4
151.6
166.3
17. 1 120.3
39. 9
72.6 120.0
176. 7
161.2
192. 6
27.0
23.5 137. 7
76. 2
44. 6
83. 0 140. 3
199.0
24. 5
85.3
223. 3
179. 3
29.3 150.0
50.2
212. 7
87.6 167.8
182.4
255. 4
23.0
88. 9
31. 6 150.8
56.0
82. 3 163.2
199.8
245.5
20.9
74.5
30.6 138. 1
168.7
53.9
182.
9
94.
2
215.6
179.0
277. 1
92. 1
14.8
33.3 145.7
55.7
71.5 146.5
186.9
157.5
25. 9
217. 9
30. 1 127. 5
61. 3
56.7
195. 9
78. 5 159. 1
165. 0
20. 4
237.6
68.5
28.7 136. 2
57.7
85.2 164.3
201.0
173.4
76.2
249. 5
22.6
30. 5 142. 9

217. 7
205. 1
209. 1

i
1981

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

192. 3
182. 3
184. 6

28.6
24. 3
22. 7

163.7
158.0
161. 9

90.4
84.4
85. 1

1 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption
adjustments.
2
Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.




i

1980

27.5
28.4
30. 1

257.0
229. 0
234.4

87.7
76.4
78. 1

169.2
152. 7
156. 3

59.6
62. 0
64. 8

tax

Undistributed
profits

Inventory
tion
adjustment

18.8
26. 1
34. 5
49.6
55. 2
50.7
65. 1
80. 1
95. 7
117.6
107.2
128. 9
90.7
102. 4
106.6

-6.6
-4.6
-6. 6
-20.0
-40. 0
-11.6
-14. 7
-15.8
-24. 3
-42. 6
-45. 7
-61. 4
-31. 1
-41.7
-48. 4

109. 6
90.6
91.5

-39.2
-24.0
-25.3

* Includes industries not shown separately.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
According to revised estimates for the third quarter, business fixed investment rose $10.5 billion (annual rate) as
nonresidential construction outlays rose $5.2 billion and producers' durable equipment purchases increased $5.3
billion. Residential investment outlays fell $10.2 billion. There was a $27.5 billion increase in inventories following
a $23.3 billion increase in the second quarter.
MILLIONS OF DO .LARS

BILLIC)NS OF DOLLARS

500

500
SEA 5ONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

>*****

A*Z> A

r^-^1

/

Pv

GROSS PRIVATE DOMES TIC
,^r^r
INVESTMENT
f

\

•yen

^

_X-^

*

s

NONRES IDENTIAL
,
FIXED IN VESTMENT ++

OrtA

250

\X"
+ - «*'

S***

k

X***""

s

(

—^-*^

Aftf)

^r
^**^S

onn

T^

A

/

\

250

450

Jr

***

200

i en

^RESIDENTIA
FIXED INVESTM ENT-^ ..,..-'

100

^

i*

\^^

100

CHANGE IN BUSINEss
INVENTORIES

50

\

%%

X**

i
I
1973

-50

" '•*.«•••"*»*

i

0-*""1"**"..,,.,....,..

»„.„..«,.,.
"*

I I

«au».(r»i>*{ *

\

1

1974

i

1

i

1975

I

I

X

1
******* 111 .i.***" ***

******««»**

I

1976

1

I
!
1977

1
I
1978

i

1

50

„....*'

...«»""%v

1

1

i

1979

1

1

1980

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT C F COMMERCE

Q

I

I

I

-50

1981

COUNCIL O F ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Gross
private
domestic
investment

T>_

•_ J
Jreriou

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980.
1980: I
II
III
IV
1981: I
II
III

__

144.2
166. 4
195. 0
229. 8
228.7
206. 1
257. 9
322. 3
375.3
415. 8
395. 3
415.6
390. 9
377. 1
397.7
437. 1
458. 6
463.0

Nonresidential fixed
investmeni

Total

103.9
107. 9
121.0
143. 3
156.6
157. 7
174. 1
205. 5
242. 0
279.7
296. 0
297.8
289. 8
294. 0
302. 1
315.9
324.6
335. 1

Structures

38.7
40. 5
44. 1
51. 0
55.9
55. 4
58.8
64. 6
78.7
96.3
108.8
108.2
108. 4
107.3
111. 5
117.2
123. 1
128.3

Producers'
durable
equipment
65.2
67.4
76.9
92. 3
100.7
102. 3
115.3
140.9
163. 3
183.4
187. 1
189.7
181. 4
186.8
190. 7
198.7
201. 5
206. 8

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




Re sidential fh:ed investrrlent

Total

37. 1
50.9
63.8
68.0
57.9
55. 3
72.0
95. 8
111.2
118. 6
105.3
115. 2
93. 6
99. 2
113. 0
116.7
110. 7
100. 5

Nonfarm
structures
35.4
48.9
61.5
65.6
54. 8
52.4
68.8
91. 9
106.9
113. 9
100.3
110. 1
88.9
94. 5
107.6
111.4
105.4
94.9

r arm
structures
TTofTv*

0. 6
.7
.7
.7
1.3
1. 0
1. 1
1. 5
1.8
1. 8
2.0
2. 2
1.8
1. 7
2.2
2. 2
2. 1
2.3

Producers'
durable
equipment
1. 1
1.3
1. 5
1.7
1. 8
1.9
2. 1
2.3
2, 6
2. 9
3.0
3. 0
2.9
3. 0
3. 1
3.2
3.2
3.3

Change in business in\rentories

Total

Nonfarm

3.2
7.7
10. 2
18.5
14. 1
-6.9
11.8
21.0
22. 2
17.5
-5. 9
2. 5
7.4
-16.0
-17.4
4.5
23. 3
27.5

3. 1
6. 4
9. 6
15. 2
16. 0
-10. 5
13. 0
20. 2
21.8
13. 4
-4.7
1. 5
6. 1
-12.3
-14.0
6.8
21. 5
23. 1

EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT—NONFARM BUSINESS
According to the Commerce Department October-November survey, nonfarm business spending for new plant and
equipment for the year 1981 is expected to be 9.1 percent above 1980. Expenditures in 1980 were 9.3 percent higher
than in 1979.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
500

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
500
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

400

400

300

TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT

300

200

200

+—"
100

100

80

80

""MANUFACTURING
\
60

60

40

40

i

30

i

i

i

1974

30
1975

1977

1976

1979

1978

1980

1981

1982

_]/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Plant ,and equi Dment

I ^onmanu facturin DC

Ma nufactur mg

Period

Total

Plant

Equipment
Total

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981 : 4
1980: III..

iv_.

1981: !___
II__
III.
IV4.
1982: 1 44 .
II _

137. 70
156. 98
157. 71
171. 45
198. 08
231. 24
270. 46
295. 63
322. 61
296. 23
299. 58
312. 24
316. 73
328. 25
332. 06
345. 46
354. 83

56.66
64.29
65.21
71.20
80. 31
92. 70
105. 73
117. 55

117. 59
120. 27
128. 57
131. 05
136. 40

81.04 42.37
92.69 53.21
92.50 54. 92
100. 25 59.95
117. 77 69. 22
138. 54 79.72
164. 73 98. 68
178. 08 115. 81
128. 26
178. 64 116. 40
179. 32 118. 63
183. 67 124. 50
185. 68 125. 49
191. 85 130. 11
132. 22

136. 47
140. 58

Durable
goods
22. 75
27.44
26.33
28.47
34. 04
40. 43
51. 07
58. 91
62.94
58. 19
59. 77
61.24
63. 10
62.58
64.73
66.26
68. 34

Nondurable
goods
19. 62
25.76
28.59
31.47
35. 18
39.29
47.61
56. 90
65.32

95.33
103. 78
102. 79
111.50
128. 87
151. 52
171. 77
179. 81
194. 35

58.21
58.86
63.27
62. 40
67. 53
67.50
70. 21
72. 24

179. 83
180. 95
187. 74
191. 24
198. 13
199. 84
208. 98
214. 25

1 Wholesale and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and personal,
business,
and professional services.
2
"Other" consists of construction; social services and membership organizations; and forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services.

10



Trans- Public
Total Mining porta- utilities
tion

3.31
4.62
6. 10
7. 44
9.24
10.21
11.38
13. 51
16.80
13.86
15.28
16. 20
16.80
17. 55
16.59
17.23
17.81

7.41
8.23
8.68
8. 89
9.40
10. 68
12.35
12. 09
12.07
12.23
11. 70
11. 74
11.70
11. 61
13. 20
11. 79
13.89

17.97
19. 83
19.98
22.37
26.79
29.95
33.96
35.44
37. 94
35. 58
34.96
36. 05
37.84
39.55
38. 09
40. 14
40.29

Starts of
plant and
equipment
projects,
manufacturing 3

Trade
and
services *

Communication
and
other 2

45.53
47. 79
46.23
49.30
56. 54
68. 66
79. 26
81.79
86.27

21. 12
23.30
21.80
23. 51
26.90
32. 02
34.83
36.99
41. 27

53.21
61.24
56.51
59. 38
77.40
88. 16
112. 98
123. 32

81. 19
82.91
83.43
85. 88
87.55
88.27
95. 12
96. 29

36. 97
36. 11
40. 32
39. 02
41.89
43.69
44. 71
45.97

27.74
33. 53
35. 41
32. 90
33. 33

3
Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during
given
period.
4
Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late October and November 1981, corrected for biases.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES

STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE

Seasonally adjusted employment fell 190,000 in November, while unemployment rose 485,000.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS
110

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*
110

1973
*16 Y E A R S OF AGE AND OVER.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

Noninstitutional
population

Period

1975
1976
1977
1978*___
1979
1980

153, 449
156, 048
158, 559
_ 161, 058
163, 620
166, 246

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted]
Unemph>yment
C ivilian einploymen t
Total
labor
N onagri cultural
15
Civilian
Civilian Unemforce
Part-time Total weeks
Agriemploy- ploy- (includ- labor
Total
ecoand
culment
ment
ing
force
Total for
nomic 1
over
tural
Armed
reasons
Forces)
3,490
7,830 2,483
84, 783 7,830 94, 793 92, 613 84, 783 3,380 81, 403
3,272
7,288 2,340
87, 485 7,288 96, 917 94, 773 87, 485 3,297 84, 188
3,297
6, 855 1,911
90, 546 6, 855 99, 534 97, 401 90, 546 3,244 87, 302
3,216
6,047 1,379
94, 373 6,047 102, 537 100, 420 94, 373 3,342 91, 031
3,281
5,963 1,202
96, 945 5,963 104, 996 102, 908 96, 945 3,297 93, 648
3,965
7,448 1,829
97, 270 7,448 106, 821 104, 719 97, 270 3, 310 93, 960

1981: Jan_.
Feb.__
Mar._
Apr__
May__
June-July..
Aug..
Sept.
Oct___
Nov__

97, 801
97, 545

167, 585 96, 128
167, 747 96, 383
167, 902 97, 318
168, 071 98, 282
168, 272 98, 803
168, 480 99, 341
168, 685 100, 474
168, 855 100, 013
169, 049 98, 277
169, 252 98, 902
169, 435 98, 393

61.8
62. 1
62.8
63. 7
64.2
64.3

7,486 107, 404 105, 285
7,233 107, 191 105, 067

97, 339
97, 282

3,340
3,394

93, 999
93, 888

4,176
4,218

7,946
7,785

2,329
2,378

64.2
64.0

105, 543
105, 681
106, 177
106, 722
107, 406
106, 176
106, 464
106, 602
106, 236
106, 736
107, 029

97, 696
97, 927
98, 412
98, 976
99, 235
98, 392
98, 962
98, 944
98, 270
98, 217
98, 025

3,403
3,281
3,276
3,463
3,353
3,265
3, 258
3,370
3,310
3,337
3, 363

94, 294
94, 646
95, 136
95, 513
95, 882
95, 127
95, 704
95, 574
94, 959
94, 880
94, 662

4,474
4, 145
4,227
4, 044
4, 143
3,798
4,225
4, 187
4,537
5, 026
4,988

7,847
7,754
7, 764
7,746
8, 171
7,784
7,502
7,657
7,966
8, 520
9,004

2, 358
2,250
2, 192
2, 105
2, 168
2,315
2, 100
2, 194
2,212
2,251
2,330

64.2
64.3
64.5
64.8
65. 1
64.3
64.4
64.4
64. 1
64. 3
64.4

8, 543
8,425
8,087
7,396
7,545
8,279
7,934
7,758
7,687
8,024
8,470

107, 668
107, 802
108, 305
108, 851
109, 533
108, 307
108, 603
108, 762
108, 401
108, 894
109, 187

1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include siacK work, material shortages, inability to find full-time work, etc.
2 Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of age and
over.
*Data beginning 1978 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of




( T\(*Y~
VJJCI -

cent) 2

Seascmally adj usted

UiQ ad justed

1980: Nov.. 167, 201
Dec_. 167, 396

Labor
force
participation
rate

revisions in the household survey, which added about 250,000 to labor force and
to employment.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

11

SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
In November the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 8.4 percent from 8.0 percent in October.
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
25

25

20

V
I
>\J

\I
TEENAGERS
(16-19)

10

WOMEN 20 YEARS
AND OVER

/

'"\

MEN
M 20
20 YEARS
AND OVER

1 11
1977

1981

1978

1979

1980

1981

* UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
1Jnemployment nite (pere<?nt of chrilisLU lab
or force in group )
By scsleeted g roups

By race

By s ex and a ge

Total
(all
civilian
workers)

Men
20
years
and
over

8.5
7.7
7.0
6.0
5.8
7. 1

6.7
5.9
5.2
4.2
4. 1
5.9

8.0
7.4
7.0
6.0
5.7
6.3

19. 9
19. 0
17.7
16.3
16. 1
17.7

7.8
7.0
6.2
5.2
5. 1
6.3

13. 9
13. 1
13.1
11. 9
11.3
13.2

8.2
7.3
6.6
5.6
5. 4
6.8

1980: Nov
Dee

7.5
7.4

6.4
6.2

6.7
6.8

18.6
17.8

6.6
6.5

14. 0
14. 0

1981: Jan
.
Feb
Mar
Apr.._
May
June .
July
Aug_. r
„___
Sept
Oct
_
Nov
_

7.4
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.6
7.3
7.0
7.2
7.5
8.0
8.4

6.0
6.0
5.9
5. i
6.3
6. 1
5.6
5.9
6.2
6.7
7.2

6.7
6.5
6.6
6. 6
6.8
6.5
6.7
6.5
6.8
7.0
7.3

19.0
19,3
19.1
19. 1
19.5
19.0
18. 1
18.8
19. 3
20.6
21.8

6.7
6.6
6.5
6.5
6.8
6.4
6.2
6. 1
6.5
6.9
7.4

12. 9
13. 1
13.7
13. 2
13.6
14.2
13.6
15.0
15. 1
15.5
15.5

Period

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980.

„___

Women Both
20
sexes
years 16-19
and
years
over

White

1
Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours.

12



Labor
force
time
lost
(per-l
cent)

Women
who
maintain
families

Fulltime
workers

Parttime
workers

5. 1
4.2
3.6
2.8
2.7
4.2

10.0
10.0
9.3
8.5
8.3
9. 1

8. 1
7.3
6.5
5. 5
5.3
6.8

10.3
10. 1
9.8
9.0
8.7
8.7

9. 1
8.3
7.6
6.5
6.3
7.9

7.2
7.1

4.4
4.3

9.9
10.4

7.4
7.3

8.6
8.2

8.3
8.2

7.1
7.0
7.0
6.8
7.4
7.0
6.8
6.9
7.2
7.6
8.0

4.2
4. 1
4. 1
3.8
4. 1
4.2
3.9
3.9
4.3
4.7
5. 1

10.5
9.6
9.4
9.8
10.3
10.6
11.5
9.8
10.6
10.7
10.9

7. 1
7. 1
7. 1
6.9
7.3
7.0
6.7
6.7
7.2
7.7
8. 1

9.2
9. 1
9.0
9.0
9.7
9.2
9.3
9.7
9.6
9.5
10. 2

8.2
8. 1
8. 1
8.2
8.6
8.0
7.9
7.9
8.5
9. 1
9.4

Expe-

MarBlack rienced
ried
wage
men,
and
and
other salary spouse
workers present

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS
In November, the percentage of unemployed persons who had been out of work for 5-14 weeks rose, and the percentage out of work for shorter and longer periods fell.
"

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*

REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT

DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT
60

60

50

50

40

40
REENTRANTS

30

30

20

20

NEW ENTRANTS

15-26
WEEKS

\

10

JOB LEAVERS
27 WEEKS
AND OVER

1977

1978

1980

1979

1977

1981

1978

1979

1980

1981

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Percen t distrib ution of unemplo yment b.y duraticm 1
Unemployrnent
Less
(thou- than 5
sands) weeks
„!

Period

5-14
weeks

15-26
weeks

27
weeks
and
over

State pi*ograms Insured
unem- Special
unemployment,
ployall
ment
Insured
New unem- Initial regular benefit
enproclaims
claims
trants ploygrams
(unadmerit
(unad-2 justed) 8
justed)

Percen t distrib ution of unempl oyment ' jy reasoii i

Job
losers

Job
Reenleavers trants

Wee*kly avei age, thoussands

1976_____
19771978...
1979..-. ....
1980_«
1980: Nov..
Dee__
1981: Jan..
Feb..
Mar._
Apr__
MayJune-.
July._
Aug —
Sept..
Oct__
Nov..

7,288
6,855
6,047
5,963
7,448
7,946
7,785
7,847
7,754
7,764
7,746
8,171
7,784
7,502
7,657
7,966
8,520
9,004

38.3
41.7
46.2
48. 1
43* 1
39.0
40.4
41.3
41.2
41.4
40.2
41.5
40.4
42. 6
41.0
41.8
42.9
42. 4

29.6
30. 5
31.0
31.7
32.4
3L7

2as

28.7
29.9
30.4
32.2
31. 8
30. 1
29.3
30.5
30.8
30. 6
31.8

13.8
13. 1
12.3
11.5
13.8
15.2
16.0
13.7
12.8
13. 1
13. 1
12. 6
15.4
14.3
13.8
14.2
13. 6
13.5

18.3
14.8
10.5
8.7
10.8
14.0
14.9
16.2
16.2
15.2
14.5
14. 1
14.1
13.8
14.7
13. 1
12.9
12.4

49.7
45.3
41. 6
42.8
51.9
53.5
54. 3
49.4
50. 7
49.7
49.7
50. 1
52.8
49.3
51.4
53.4
51. 8
53.4

12.2
13.0
14. 1
14. 3
11.6
11.3
10.5
11.6
11.5
11.2
11. 1
12.4
10.8
12. 0
11.0
10.9
11. 3
9.9

26.0
28. 1
30.0
29.5
25.2
24. 0
24.0
26.2
25.7
26. 4
26.3
26. 1
24.5
27. 0
25. 4
24.0
25. 4
25.8

12.1
13.7
14.3
13.4
11.4
11.2
11.2
12.8
12. 1
12.7
12.9
11.5
12. 0
11. 7
12. 3
11.7
11.6
10.9

2,991
2,655
2,359
2,434
3,350
3,367
3,083
2,982
2,825
2,906
2,923
2,945
2,972
2,821
2,938
3,055
3,215
3,432

386
375
346
388
489
424
415
417
410
433
415
414
418
401
433
490
528
533

3,846
3,308
2,645
2,592
3,837
3,726
4,085
4,621
4,264
3, 948
3,453
3, 111
2,949
3, 012
2,874
2,680
2,753
3, 152

1,152
572

> Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding.
3 FSB and SUA. These programs started January 19T5 and regular reporting
2 Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Eico, and Virgin
began March 1975.
Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (TJCFE), and railroad (RE) proSource: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment
grams. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not
and Training Administration).
include FSB (Federal supplemental benefits) and SUA (special unemployment assistance).




13

NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
In November, total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey fell by 235,000.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

22
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE

90
20
ALL NONAGRICULTURAL
ESTABLISHMENTS

80 *

SERVICES

^-==

„.*''•""•"

70

GOV
60 -

RNMENT

SERVICE-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES

22

MANUFACTURING

50
20

40

CONSTRUCTION

GOODS-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES

30

\

.,..,..,„„.,..,.,..""'""
20
1977

1978

1979

1977

1981

1980

1978

1979

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1980

1981

N

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of wage and salary workers;1 seasonally adjusted]

S(*rvice-pr oducing i ndustrie s

Cloods-prc ducing i ndustries
Total
nonagricultural
employ- Total 2
ment

Construction

_ 76, 945
79, 382
82, 471
86, 697
89, 823
90, 564

22, 600
23, 352
24, 346
25, 585
26, 461
25, 718

3,525
3, 576
3,851
4, 229
4,463
4,399

1980: Nov__ 90, 844
Dec... 90, 949

25, 629
25, 631

4,389 20, 188 12, 090
4,387 20, 175 12, 077

8,098 65, 215
8,098 65, 318

1981: Jan___ 91, 091
Feb___ 91, 258
Mar__ 91, 347
Apr
91, 458
May— 91, 564
June__ 91, 615
July__ 91, 880
Aug.— 91, 901
Sept__ 92, 033
Oct *>_p 91, 798
Nov
91, 561

25, 647
25, 657
25, 705
25, 700
25, 705
25, 818
25, 939
25, 931
25, 930
25, 651
25, 459

4,390
4,389
4,416
4, 418
4,334
4,284
4,272
4, 275
4,272
4, 260
4,242

8,090
8,103
8,092
8, 125
8, 160
8, 146
8,202
8, 173
8, 185
8, 119
8,085

t

Period

1975
1976
1977...
1978___
1979
1980

Trans- Whole- Finance,
Gover nment
insurportasale
ance, Services
tion
and
Total
State
Nonand
and
retail
Federal and
durable
Total Durable
real
public trade
goods goods
local
estate
utilities

Ma nufactui ing

18,
18,
19,
20,
21,
20,

323
997
682
505
040
300

20, 174
20, 177
20, 191
20, 332
20, 414
20, 424
20, 535
20, 505
20, 496
20, 227
20, 038

105 688
11, 077
11,597
12,274
12, 760
12, 181

12, 084
12, 074
12, 099
12, 207
12, 254
12, 278
12, 333
12, 332
12, 311
12, 108
11, 953

7,635
7,920
8,086
8,231
8,280
8,118

1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and ?alary workers in nonagricultural
establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period
which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed person?, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from
this table not comparable with estimates of nonaoicultural employment of the
civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed
persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they

14




54,
56,
58,
61,
63,
64,

345
030
125
113
363
847

65, 444
65, 601
65, 642
65, 758
65, 859
65, 797
65, 941
65, 970
66, 103
66, 147
66, 102

13,892
14,551
15, 303
16,252
17, 112
17, 901

2,748
2, 733
2,727
2, 753
2,773
2,866

11,937
12, 138
12, 399
12,919
13, 174
13, 383

5,114 20, 464
5,118 20, 470

5,235 18, 160
5,254 18, 240

2,796
2,800

13, 446
13, 436

5,124
5,135
5,139
5, 161
5, 148
5, 149
5, 167
5, 170
5, 186
5, 164
5, 161

5,268
5,283
5, 293
5,316
5, 326
5,331
5,344
5, 354
5, 366
5,359
5,355

18, 300
18, 343
18, 371
18, 475
18, 540
18, 560
18, 642
18, 667
18, 774
18, 782
18, 828

2,799
2, 795
2,781
2,767
2,779
2,781
2,777
2, 770
2,765
2, 756
2,757

13, 424
13, 445
13, 423
13, 403
13, 352
13, 259
13, 215
13, 147
13, 140
13, 176
13, 175

4,542
4, 582
4,713
4, 923
5,136
5,143

17,
17,
18,
19,
20,
20,

060
755
516
542
192
386

20, 529
20, 600
20, 635
20, 636
20, 714
20, 717
20, 796
20, 862
20, 872
20, 910
20, 826

4, 165
4,271
4,467
4,724
4,975
5,168

are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad weather, etc., even if they
are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the workingage population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from
employing establishments.
2 Includes mining, not shown separately.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Average gross
hourly e>arnings

Avenige weekly I lours

Overtime

Total
private
nonagricultural 1

Manufacturing

Manufa cturing

Total
private
non agricultural 1

Period

Total

Adjusted h surly earnin gs index2 —tc>tal private

nonagric ultural

Percent cha nge from
a year eaiiier 4 5

Index, 19 77 = 100

1977
dollars 3

Current
dollars

Current
dollars

1977
dollars

116.8
127.3

101.2
101.1
98.3
97.6
99.0
100. 0
100.5
97.4
93.5

6.4
6.2
8.0
8.4
7.2
7.6
8.1
8.0
9.0

7.59
7.63

132. 1
132.6

93.3
92.7

9.9
9.3

-2.5
-2.8

7. 69
7.74
7.80
7.90
7.95
7.99
8. 02
8.08
8. 14
8. 14
8. 16

133.8
135.0
135. 8
136.7
137.7
138.4
139. 0
140.7
141. 5
141. 8
143. 1

92.8
92.7
92.8
93.0
93.1
92.9
92.2
92.7
92. 1
92. 0
92.3

10. 0

-1.6
-1.3

1972
1973
1974 ...
1975
1976
.
1977
1978
1979
1980

37. 0
36. 9
36. 5
36. 1
36. 1
36. 0
35. 8
35.7
35. 3

40. 5
40. 7
40. 0
39.5
40. 1
40. 3
40. 4
40.2
39.7

3. 5
3.8
3.3
2. 6
3. 1
3.5
3.6
3.3
2.8

$3. 70
3. 94
4.24
4.53
4. 86
o. 25
5. 69
6. 16
6, 66

$3.82
4. 09
4.42
4.83
5.22
5. 68
6. 17
6.70
7.27

69.8
74. 1
80.0
86.7
92.9
100.0
108. 1

1980: Nov_
Dec

35.3
35.3

39.8
39.9

3.0
3.0

6.90
6. 94

1981: Jan
- _
Feb
Mar
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug
Sept__ _ _
Oct v _
Nov *>_

35.3
35.2
35.3
35.4
35. 3
35.2
35. 3
35.2
34. 9
35.0
35. 1

40. 1
39.8
39.9
40. 2
40. 3
40. 1
40.0
40.0
39.3
39. 5
39. 3

3.0
2.8
2.8
2.9
3. 2
3.0
3. 0
3.0
2. 7
2.7
2. 5

6. 99
7.04
7.09
7. 14
7. 18
7.23
7.26
7. 34
7.37
7. 39
7. 44

9.9
9.5
9.6
9.5
9.0
8.9
9.3
9.3

8. 6

8.3

3.1

-. 1
-2.8
-.7
1.4
1.0
.5

-3. 1

-40

-.9
-.3
—.3
-.5

-1.7
-1.3
-1.3
-1.4
-1.0

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS—PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Average gross weekly <earnings
Period

Total pri vate nonagiicu Itural 1
Current
dollars

1972_
_
1973.
_ _ _
1974
1975_
_ _
1976.
.
_
1977
._
1978
1979
1980
1980: Nov
Dec
1981: Jan
_ ...
Feb..
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
_
Sept _ _
Oct »v ___
Nov

$136. 90
145. 39
154. 76
163. 53
175. 45
189.00
203. 70
219. 91
235. 10
243. 57
244 98
246. 75
247. 81
250. 28
252. 76
253. 45
254. 50
256. 28
258. 37
257. 21
258. 65
261. 14

Manufacturing

1977
dollars 3
$198. 41
198. 35
190. 12
184 16
186. 85
189. 00
189. 31
183. 41
172. 74
171. 89
171. 19
171. 12
170. 20
170. 96
172. 06
171. 37
170. 92
170. 06
170. 20
167. 45
167. 74
168. 48

$154 71
166.46
176. 80
190. 79
209. 32
228. 90
249. 27
269. 34
288. 62
302. 08
304 44
308. 37
308. 05
311. 22
317. 58
320. 39
320. 40
320. 80
323. 20
319. 90
321. 53
320. 69




$221. 19
235. 89
249. 25
266. 08
283. 73
295. 65
318. 69
342. 99
367. 04
379. 81
382. 13
397. 94
380. 02
392. 33
390. 29
388. 98
388. 05
397. 41
397. 11
380. 80
401. 14
409. 94

Percent clnmge from a
year e aiiier,
total prb/ate nonagricu Ltural 5
Current
dollars

<Durrent dollars3

1 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.
2 Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing.
3
Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index on a
1977=100 base. Revised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used
beginning 1978.

8-037 0 - 8 1 - 3

Construction

Wholesale
and retail
trade

$106. 45
111. 76
119. 02
126. 45
133. 79
142. 52
153. 64
164. 96
176. 46
182. 25
182. 65
184 18
186. 12
187. 08
188. 63
189. 07
189. 71
190. 95
192. 28
194. 21
192. 04
194. 24

7.5
6.2
6.4
5.7
7.3
7.7
7.8
8.0
6.9
8.2
7.9
9.5
9. 1
9.2
9.5
9.9
9.2
10.0
9.8
8. 1
7.7
7. 2

1977
dollars
4. 1
— .0
-4. 1
— 3. 1
1.5
1.2
.2
-3. 1
-5. 8
-3. 9
-4 1
-2. 0
-2. 1
— 1. 2
__. 4
.1
—. 3
-.7
-.9
-2.5
-2. 1
-2.0

4
Monthly
5

changes based on indexes to two decimal places.
Based on unadjusted data.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

15

PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, PRIVATE BUSINESS SECTOR
Hours of 2all
perst3ns

Outf 5Utl

Output Der hour
of all p>ersons

Compe nsation
per 1 iour 3

Unit labor
CO

sts

Implicilt price
deflat ,or 4

PriNonPriNonNonNonPriNonNonPrivate
Private
Private
vate
farm
farm
farm
vate
farm
farm
vate
farm
business business
business business
business business
business business business business business business
sector
sector
sector
sector sector
sector
sector
sector sector sector sector
sector

Period

1977 == 100; qua rterly dat a season.illy adjuslted

1968
1969

76.9
79.2

76.7
78.9

90.3
92.7

88. 5
91.3

85.2
85.4

86.7
86.4

50.6
54.2

51.4
54.8

59. 5
63. 5

59.3
63.4

60.3
63.3

60.5
63.4

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

78.5
80.9
86.2
92. 0
90.2

78. 1
80.4
85. 9
91.9
90. 1

91.2
90. 7
93.4
97.0
97.4

90. 0
89.7
92.5
96.4
96.8

86. 1
89.2
92.4
94. 8
92.7

86. 7
89.6
93. 0
95.3
93. 1

58.2
62.0
66. 0
71.3
78.0

58.6
62.5
66.6
71.7
78.4

67.6
69. 5
71.5
75. 2
84.2

67.6
69. 7
71. 7
75.2
84. 3

66.2
69. 1
71.5
75.3
82.4

66.4
69.4
71.4
74. 1
81. 6

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

88.5
94. 1
100. 0
104.7
107.7

88. 1
94. 0
100.0
104. 9
107.7

93.4
96. 1
100.0
104. 9
108.2

92. 7
95.9
100. 0
105. 1
108.7

94.8
97.9
100.0
99.8
99.5

95.0
98. 1
100.0
99.8
99. 1

85.5
92. 9
100.0
108.4
119. 3

86.0
93.0
100.0
108. 5
119.0

90.2
94.8
100. 0
108.6
119.9

90.5
94.8
100.0
108. 7
120.0

90.4
94. 7
100.0
107.4
116.9

89.9
94.5
100.0
107.0
116.2

1980

106.8

106. 8

107.5

108. 1

99.3

98.8

131. 5

130.8

132.4

132.4

127.6

127.4

1979: III
IV

107.7
108.2

107.8
108.2

108. 4
109. 1

109.0
109.4

99.4
99. 1

98.9
98.8

120.7
123. 2

120.2
123.0

121.4
124.3

121.5
124.4

118. 1
120.2

117.4
119.7

1980: I
II
III
IV

108.7
105.4
105. 7
107.5

108.5
105. 1
105.8
107.7

109. 2
106.4
106.3
108. 4

109.8
107. 1
106. 9
108.8

99.5
99. 1
99. 4
99. 1

98.9
98.2
99. 0
99.0

126.4
130. 1
133. 1
135.9

126.0
129.4
132. 3
135.4

127 0
131.3
133. 9
137.0

127.4
131.8
133. 6
136.8

123.0
126. 1
129. 1
132.2

122.9
126.3
128. 8
131.9

1981: I
II
III *___

109.5
109.5
109.4

109.7
109.4
109. 1

109.2
108.3
108.5

109.7
109. 0
109. 1

100. 3
101. 1
100.9

100.0
100.4
99. 9

139. 7
143.2
146.4

139. 1
142.4
145.6

139.4
141.6
145. 1

139. 1
141.9
145.7

135.4
137. 5
140.8

135.3
137.5
141. 1

Pereeint change ; quarterly7 data at seasonal 1y adjustec1 animal rates

1968
1969

5. 1
2.9

5.3
2.9

1.7
2.6

2.0
3.2

3.3
.2

3.3
-.3

7.8
7.0

7.5
6.5

4.4
6.7

4. 1

4.0
4.9

4.0
4.7

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

-.8
3.0
6.6
6.6
-1.9

-1.0
2.9
6.9
6.9
-1.9

-1.7
-. 5
3.0
3.9
.4

-1.4
-.4
3. 1
4.2
.4

.9
3.6
3.5
2.7
-2.3

.3
3.3
3.7
2. 5
-2.4

7.4
6.6
6.5
8. 0
9.4

7.0
6.6
6.7
7.6
9.4

6.4
2.9
2.9
5.2

3. 1

6.6

4.8
4.5
3.0

11.9

2.8
4.9

12. 1

4.5
4.4
3.4
5.4
9.4

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

-1.9
6.3
6.3
4.7
2.8

-2.2
6.7
6.4
4.9
2.7

-4. 1
2.9
4.0
4. 9
3. 1

-4.2
3.4
4.3
5. 1
3.4

2.3
3.3
2. 1
-.2
-. 3

2. 1
3.2
2.0
-.2
-.7

9.6
8.6
7. 7
8.4
10. 1

9. 6
8. 1
7.6
8.5
9.7

7.2

10.4

9.7
4.7
5.6
7.4
8.8

10.3
5. 1

8. 6
10.4

7.4
4.7
5.5
8.7

1980

-.8

-.9

-.6

-.6

-. 2

-.3

10.2

9.9

10.4

10.3

9.2

9.7

1979: III
IV

2.4
1.7

2.6
1.5

3.6
2.8

3.7
1.8

-1.2
-1.0

-1. 1
-.2

8.9
8.6

8.6
9.7

10. 2

9.7
9.9

8.2
7.4

8.5
7.8

1980: I
II
III
IV

1.8
-11.5
1. 1
_
6.9

1.4
-12. 1
2.9
7. 1

.2
-9.9
-.2
8. 1

1. 1
-9.5
-.7
7.3

1.6
-1.8
1.3
-1. 1

.3
-2.9
3.6
-.2

10.7
12.3
9.5
8. 6

10.2
11.3
9.0
9.8

14.4
8. 1

9.7

11.3
11.3

7.9
—. 1
-.3

7.9
-1. 1
-1.3

3. 1
-3.5
.8

3.5
-2.5
.3

4.6
3.5
-1.0

4.3
-1.4
-1.6

11.8
10.4
9.2

11.6
9.6
9.3

6.9
6.6

1981: I
II

III *>_

1
2

Output refers to gross domesl ic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars.
Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in the sector, including
hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on
establishment
data.
3
Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social
insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries,
and supplemental payments for the self-employed.

16



5. 1

5.5

9.8

9.0
9.8

10.3

6.8

9.9

14.6

5.3

10. 5

3. 7
10. 1
5.8
7.0
8.6

8.2

10. 1

9.8
9.9

10.0

7.0

10.0

11.0

10.0

10.9

8. 1
11. 1

6.2

6.5

4
Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.
NOTE.—Percent changes a~e from preceding period and are based on 9riginal
data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes
shown here.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

Industrial production fell 2.1 percent in November following decreases of 1.4 percent in October and 1.2 percent in
September. The index for November was 1.8 percent below the year earlier level.
INDEX, 1967=100*

180

(RATIO SCALE)

INDEX, 1967=100*

TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

180

160

160

140

140

120

120

(RATIO SCALE)

UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION

UTILITIES

MINING

1977

1978

iiiiiIiiiii
1979

1980

1981
100
1977

MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION

1978

1979

1980

1981

PERCENT* (RATIO SCALE)
100

MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE

90

80

120

70

1977

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

Total in dustrial
produ<stion
Percent
Index,
1967= change
from
100
year
earlier
100. 00
—. 4
129.3
117.8
-8. 9
10.8
130. 5
138.2
5.9
5.7
146 1
4.4
152.5
-3.6
147.0

Period

1967 proportion
1974
1975
1976_ _
1977
1978___
1979
1980

1980: Nov
Dec
1981: Jan__
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept__
Oct »
Nov *

_._
___
...
_. _

_ _

[Seasonally adjusted]
Indusstry prodtiction indcjxes, 1967 = 100
Mimufacturi ng
Total

Dur-

able

Nondur-




Utilities

able

Mi mufacturi ng
Materials
(Federal
WharComReserve Federal
ton
series) Reserve merce 2
series
series 3
series

51. 98
125.7
109.3
122. 3
130.0
139. 7
146. 4
136.7

85.97

129.4
116.3
130. 3
138.4
146. 8
153. 6
146.7

134. 6
126.4
141.8
150.5
156. 9
164.0
161.2

6.36
115. 3
112.8
114.2
118. 2
124.0
125.5
132.7

5. 69
143. 7
146. 0
151.7
156.5
161.4
166.0
168.3

87. 1
73.4
81. 1
82.7
85.6
87.4
80.0

83.8
72.9
79.5
81. 9
84. 4
85.7
79. 1

83
77
81
83
84
83
78

89.8
78.9
84. 9
87.4
90. 1
91. 7
85. 8

78

86. 1

78

87. 1

78

86. 6

76

86. 5

87. 95

149.2
150.4

2.0
-1.4

148.9
150.4

139.2
140.3

163.0
165.0

135. 1
138. 6

169. 9
167.9

80.5
81.4

79.3
79.8

151.4
151. 8
152. 1
151.9
152.7
152.9
153.9
153. 6
151.7
149. 6
146. 5

1.0
-.7
.0
2. 5
6.2
8. 1
9.7
8.0
5. 1
2.0
-1. 8

151. 1
151. 2
151.6
152. 0
152.8
152.4
153.2
153.2
151.2
148. 7
145. 2

141. 0
140.8
142. 1
142. 5
143.5
143.2
143. 6
143. 4
140.9
138. 1
134.0

165.6
166. 2
165.3
165.9
166. 4
165.8
167. 1
167.3
166.2
164. 0
161.5

140.4
143. 1
143. 2
135.2
135.4
141.7
146. 5
146. 0
145.4
145. 1
144.4

167.6
166.4
167.8
167.6
170.7
172. 7
173. 1
171. 9
169. 1
168. 5
166. 6

82. 1
82.3
82. 1
81. 1
81.2
81.3
81. 9
81. 7
80.0
78.0
75.8

80.0
79.8
79.8
79.8
80. 0
79.6
79.8
79. 6
78.4
76. 9
74.9

1 umpui as percent of capacity.
Annual data are averages of four monthly indexes.
Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Annual data are averages of
quarterly data. Series revised.
2
3

Mining

l
Capacit y utilizatic>n rate, p ereent

Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of
Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), and Wharton School of Finance.

17

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND
SELECTED MANUFACTURES
[1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted]
Prod ucts
3

Final I roduets

Total

NonDurable durable
goods
goods

Total
1967 proportion
1971
1972
1973
1974.
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1980: Nov
Dec
1981: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct 9
Nov p

Equip ment

Coiisumer go ods

Period

47.82
106. 3
115.7
124.4
125. 1
118.2
127. 6
135.9
142. 2
147.2
145.3
147.4
147.8
147.8
148.2
149. 0
149. 9
151.3
151.4
152. 1
151. 5
150. 3
149.6
147.3

_

7.89
118.8
133. 8
146. 2
135. 3
121.4
141.9
154. 0
159.2
155.8
136.7
143.4
141.3
140. 1
141. 2
143.6
144.3
147.3
147.9
146. 5
142.5
140.3
136.6
128.4

$7.68
114. 7
124.4
131.5
128.9
124.0
137. 1
145. 3
149. 1
150.8
145.4
148. 1
147. 1
146. 9
147.8
148. 3
148. 9
150.7
150. 3
150.7
149. 6
148.2
147.5
144.7

Interm ediate
prod ucts

19. 79
113. 1
120. 6
125.6
126. 3
125. 1
135.2
141. 9
145. 1
148.8
148. 9
150. 0
149.3
149.6
150. 5
150. 1
150.7
152. 1
151.2
152. 3
152.5
151.3
151. 9
151.3

Total

Business

Total

so. 14

12.63
104. 1
118.0
134. 2
142.4
128. 2
135.4
147. 8
160.3
171.3
173.2
173.9
177. 1
177.7
177.5
179. 3
181.0
182. 0
183.6
184.8
184.4
182.6
181. 1
178.2

12.89
116. 7
126.5
137.2
135. 3
123. 1
137. 2
145. 1
154. 1
160. 5
151.9
153.4
155.4
157.5
157.7
157. 1
156. 3
156. 1
154.9
156. 2
156.8
154.5
151. 6
149.0

94.7
103.8
114. 5
120. 0
110.2
114.6
123. 0
132. 8
142.2
145.2
146.5
148.8
149. 1
148.7
150.0
151.4
152. 1
153.0
154. 1
154. 0
153. 1
152. 3
150.8

Materials

Construction
supplies
6. 42
116. 8
128.4
139. 8
134.5
116. 3
132. 6
140.6
151. 7
158. 0
140.9
142.6
145. 2
148.4
148.9
149.0
147.9
146.5
143.4
144. 3
144.0
139. 6
134.3
131.5

39. 29
111.3
122. 3
133.9
132.4
115. 5
131.7
138. 6
148. 3
156. 4
147.6
150. 1
152. 2
153. 8
154.3
154.4
152. 9
153.4
154. 0
155.3
155.2
152.4
148.9
144. 9

Supplementary
group:
lOnergy
total
12.23
119. 5
125. 2
128. 3
125. 5
125. 5
129. 1
132. 9
135. 4
137.9
137.7
137.0
137.7
138.5
138. 5
137.7
132. 6
133. 5
138.0
141. 2
140.5
137.5
137. 0
136.4

[1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted]
D urable m anufactu res

Primar]7 metals
Period
Total

1967 proportion
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1980: Nov
Dec
1981: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct "p
Nov _

6.57
100. 2
112. 1
126. 7
123. 1
96.4
109.7
111. 1
119. 9
121.3
102.3
113.2
111. 5
114. 1
„ 114.5
_ __ 114. 9
__ 110.6
111. 9
107.4
109.4
113. 1
108.5
102. 6
96.8

Iron
and
steel

4.21
96. 1
107. 1
122. 3
119.8
95.8
104.8
103. 8
113.2
113. 2
92.4
107.6
103.0
108.7
108.4
108.0
103.4
105. 6
98.5
99.7
105. 1
99.2
93. 0

trical
machinery

Electrical
machinery

5.93
103.5
112. 1
124. 7
124. 2
109. 9
123.9
131. 0
141. 6
148.5
134. 1
132. 3
135.7
135.8
137.6
139. 2
139.5
138.4
139.3
140. 1
140.0
137. 1
133.5
128.5

9. 15
100.2
116.0
133. 7
140. 1
125. 1
134.5
143. 6
153. 6
163.7
162.8
162.9
166.9
167.3
168.3
169.2
169.7
172. 1
174. 1
176.7
176.4
173.9
171.5
168. 0

8.05
107.7
122. 2
143. 1
143. 8
116. 5
134.8
145. 4
159.4
175.0
172.8
173.0
175. 1
177.6
174.9
177. 4
178.8
179.9
180. 1
180.9
182. 6
180. 0
179.0
173.2

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

18




Non-

Fabricated
metal
products

Nonedurable n lanulact ures

TranspcDrtation
equip ment

Total

Motor
vehicles
and
parts

9.27
97. 9
108.2
118. 3
108.7
97.4
111. 1
122.2
132. 5
135. 4
116.9
121.8
120.4
117.4
116. 1
119. 5
121. 3
123.7
123.4
119.8
115.4
114. 1
111. 0
106.3

4.50
118. 6
135. 8
148. 8
128.2
111. 1
142.0
161. 1
169. 9
159. 9
119.0
129.2
125. 7
120. 0
119.9
127. 1
130. 7
136.4
137. 5
130.5
123. 1
120. 2
113.8
104. 6

Lumber
and
products

np
ADparel
products

Print- Cheming
icals
and
and
pubprodlishing ucts

1.64
113. 8
120. 8
126. 0
116. 2
107. 6
123.2
131. 2
136. 3
136. 9
119.3
123.7
123.6
127.4
126. 2
125. 6
126. 3
126.2
122. 5
122.9
119. 1
113. 2
107. 1

3.31
104. 7
109.4
117. 3
114. 3
107.6
125.7
134. 2
134. 2
134. 4
127.0
125.7
122. 7
123. 8
121.6
120.2
121. 6
122. 6
121. 1
122. 6
122. 6
122. 5

4. 72
107. 1
112.7
118. 2
118.2
113. 3
122.5
127.6
131.5
136.9
139.6
142. 1
143.0
143. 9
144. 8
142.7
141. 6
141.3
143. 1
144.4
146. 1
145. 9
146.0
146. 1

7.74
125. 9
143. 6
154.5
159.4
147.2
170. 9
185.7
197. 4
211.8
207. 1
211.7
220.5
218. 9
219. 8
218.5
219. 8
220.6
218.4
221.5
219.2
217.9
213.8

Foods

8. 75
112. 8
116. 8
120. 9
124. 0
123. 4
133. 0
138. 8
142. 7
147. 5
149. 6
151. 6
151. 0
151. 9
152. 5
152. 4
151.9
152. 2
151.3
151. 6
151.9
151. 1
151.2

NEW CONSTRUCTION
Private
Period

Total new
construction
expenditures

Constructio n contracts2

Resiclential
Total

Total i

Commercial and
industrial

New
housing
units

Other

Federal,
State,
and
local

Total value
index
(1972=
100)

Commercial and
industrial
floor space
(millions of
square feet)

Bil lions of doll ars

139.2
135. 9
151. 1
173.8
205.6
230.8
230.3

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

100.9
95. 1
112.0
135.7
159.7
181.7
174.9

50.4
46.5
60.5
81.0
93.4
99.0
87.3

40.6
34.4
47.3
65.7
75.8
78.6
63.1

23.8
20.8
19.9
22.5
29.6
39.9
43.8

26.7
27.8
31.5
32.2
36.7
42.8
43.9

38.3
40.9
39. 1
38.2
45.9
49. 1
55.4

103.0
101.9
121. 0
153.6
174 1
185.6
161. 8
Seasonally
adjusted

Season all]j adjusted ai mual rates

1980: Oct .. _ _
Nov
Dec.- _ - .
1981: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept 9

Oct 9 ___
Nov *

228.9
234.3
245.4
259.0
254.5
250.3
246.5
235.9
234.0
234.7
232.7
234.7
230.8

174.9
180.9
187.9
193.9
193.2
189.6
189.9
184.1
181.8
183.4
183.3
182. 5
179. 1

89.8
95. 6
98.9
100.7
99.7
96.3
95.2
89.7
86.0
85.3
84.7
83.8
80.8

642

68. 1
70.4
742

75. 1
73.0
72.9
67.7^
643

60.5
58.1
55. 9
52.4

i Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately.
* F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and
beginning 1971 for floor space.

41.5
42.5
45.1
48.3
48.5
48.7
48.9
47.9
48.7
51.2
52.0
51.8
51.0

43.6
42.8
43.9
449

45.0

447

45.8
46.5
47.2
46.8
46.6
46.9
47.2

167
205
193
192
177
183
172
160
170
153
156
159
157
142

540

53.4
57.6
65.2
61.3
60.6
56.6
51.8
52.2
51.4
49.4
52.2
51.7

840
555
592
739
977
1,059
898
Seasonally
adjusted
annual
rates
865
1,034
1, 169
944
1,013
1,080
930
994
1,015
852
924
823
868
863

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.

NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES
[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]

New priv ate homes

KFew private lousing unit s
Period

Units started, by type of stri icture
Total

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

2, 045. 3
1, 337. 7
1, 100. 4
1, 537. 5
1, 987. 1
2, 020. 3
1, 745. 1
1, 292. 2

1 unit

1, 132. 0
888. 1
892.2
1, 162. 4
1, 450. 9
1, 433. 3
1, 194 1
852.2

5 or more
units
118.3
795.0
68. 1
381. 6
2043
640
289.2
85.9
4144
121.7
462.0
125.0
122.0
429.0
109.5
330.5

2-4
units

Homes for
sale at
end of 1
period

Units
authorized

Units
completed

1, 819. 5
1, 074 4
939.2
1, 296. 2
1, 690. 0
1, 800. 5
1, 551. 8
1, 190. 6

2, 100. 5
1, 728. 5
1, 317. 2
1, 377. 2
1, 657. 1
1, 867. 5
1, 870. 8
1, 501. 6

634
519
549
646
819
817
709
530

418
346
313
353
402
414
3
398
336

1,274
1,373
1,252
1, 389
1,362
1,519
1,273
1,377
1,324
1,226
1, 180
1,261

560
514
523
500
507
451
478
402
408
350
313
360

337
336
329
334
325
327
322
310
303
300
295
284

Homes
sold

Vacancy
rate for
rental
housing
units
(percent)2

5.8
6.2
6.0
5.6
5.2
5.0
5.4
5.4

Seasonally adjusted armual rates
1980: Nov
Dec
1981: Jan
Feh
Mar
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug
Sept*
Oct *»
Nov 9

1, 550
1,535
1,660
1,215
1,297
1,332
1, 158
1,039
1,047
941
916
864
871

1,019
974
993
791
838
897
764
688
704
606
645
508
560

143
131
149
112
105
92
106
88
86
76
60
82
92

1
Seasonally adjusted.
2 Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not
strictly comparable with earlier data.
* New series beginning March 1979.




388
430
518
312
354
343
288
263
257
259
211
274
219

1,366
1,249
1,214
1,165
1,153
1, 186
1, 167

963
913
865
850
722
718

5.0
5.2
5.0
5.0

NOTE.—Units authorized beginning 1978 relate to 16,000 permit-issuing places ;
data for 1973-77 are for 14,000 places.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

19

BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—TOTAL AND TRADE
Business sales fell 2% percent in October, while inventories rose $5 billion. According to the advance survey, retail
sales rose % percent in November following a 2 percent decline in October.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
600

BILLIONS
---------------- OF DOLLARS*
......... (RATIO SCALE)
____

550 -

130
120

500
450

100

V

400

RETAIL INVENTORIES

110

TOTAL BUSINESS
INVENTORIES

90

350
*««."

^v

,
<
RETAIL SALES

70

300

X*
\
TOTAL BUSINESS

60

SALES

250

50

200
40
1977

150

1.70

100

1979

1978

1980

1981

RATIO*
1.80

MI I i i

I ii i i II i i i
1977

1978

1979

1980

ill ill i l ii
1981

.INVENTORY-SALES RATIO

1977

1981

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Total b usiness1

Restail

Who .esale
2

Iiiventoriess

Sales
Period

Sales 2

Inventories3

Inven-3
Sales2 tories

Tnf n 1

DurNonable durable
goods goods
stores stores

Tntnl

Inventoi•y-4sales
ratio

NonDurTotal
able durable busigoods goods ness1
stores stores

Retail

Mill ons of d ollars, seasonally adjusted

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1980: Oct_
Nov
Dec
1981: Jan
Feb
Mar_
Apr
May
June
July___ _
Aug..
Sept
Oct *>__ „
Nov »

153, 412
177, 625
_ 182, 230
204, 277
229, 623
258, 724
294, 733
320, 540
335, 873
339, 049
343, 752
349, 018
350, 334
349, 898
350, 923
349, 245
354, 442
354, 759
352, 783
353, 717
345, 064

233, 327
285, 807
288, 375
318, 544
350, 678
395, 252
444, 224
475, 202
473, 617
474, 884
475, 202
478, 451
481, 069
485, 467
487, 060
490, 254
494, 226
498, 098
502, 458
508, 132
513, 037

38, 014
47, 748
46, 623
50, 694
55, 987
64, 715
76, 264
86, 991
93, 282
93, 901
96, 591
98, 967
98, 016
96, 486
97, 577
96, 217
95, 564
97, 085
94, 674
96, 437
94, 176

45, 372 42, 462
56, 948 45, 082
56, 697 49, 012
64, 078 54, 781
72, 311 60, 435
83, 492 67, 057
93, 817 74, 529
105, 529 79, 721
104, 293 81, 552
105, 203 82, 764
105, 529 83, 443
104, 909 85, 463
106, 066 86, 810
105, 539 87, 608
105, 591 85, 855
105, 568 85, 501
107, 210 87, 384
106, 402 87, 350
107, 820 88, 591
109, 297 88, 699
111, 193 86, 803
87, 465

1
The lerni "business" also includes manufacturing (see page 21).
28 Monthly average for year and total for month.
Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted.
* For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly

20



14, 409
14, 118
15, 247
18, 150
20, 724
23, 313
25, 401
24, 827
25, 293
26, 007
25, 983
27, 075
28, 328
28, 429
26, 356
26, 536
27, 532
27, 753
28, 439
28, 380
26, 321
26, 695

28, 052
30, 964
33, 765
33, 631
39, 711
43, 744
49, 128
54, 894
56, 259
56, 757
57, 460
58, 388
58, 482
59, 179
59, 499
58, 965
59, 852
59, 597
60, 152
60, 319
60, 482
60, 770

63, 237 28, 418
71, 067 32, 861
71, 744 33, 356
79, 273 37, 841
89, 210 42, 970
101, 681 49, 898
108, 835 53, 274
111, 694 51,853
113, 106 52, 066
112, 639 52, 209
111, 694 51, 853
111, 790 52, 234
113, 507 52, 374
113, 404 51, 791
113, 963 52, 306
115,426 53, 529
117, 307 54, 880
119, 824 56, 199
121, 277 57, 121
122, 219 57, 124
123, 404 57, 468

34, 819
38, 206
38, 388
41, 432
46, 240
51, 783
55, 561
59, 841
61, 040
60, 430
59, 841
59, 556
61, 133
61,613
61, 657
61, 897
62, 427
63, 625
64, 156
65; 095
65, 936

1.41
1.45
1.57
1.48
1.46
1.44
1.43
1.45
1.41
1.40
1.38
1.37
1. 38
1.39
1.39
1.40
1. 39
1. 40
1.42
1. 44
1.49

1.40
1.48
1.44
1.38
1.39
1.42
1.43
1.38
1.39
1. 36
1.34
1.31
1.31
1. 29
1.33
1. 35
1.34
1.37
1.37
1.38
1.42

sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau
of the Census).

MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
Manufacturers* inventories rose in October, while orders and shipments fell. According to advance data, durable
goods new orders rose in November and shipments fell.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
320
_
280 -INVENTC)RIES

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
200
180
160

-SHIPMENTS-

^-

240

140
200

120

-~

=*—

100

_—-—-"~~

r^^

f

,-—•—' ' """"

-

TOTAL

_—--i

1 AH

DURABLE GOODS

80

_-—•*"*""

1OA!

GOODS

DURABLE

60
NONDURABLE GOODS

___

^ —"""**"

_

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
200
180 ENEW OR DERS
i AH
140'

_

'

f

~^\^rr

Ad

,—^\

_

-

r

DURABLE GO ODS
\

_
60

^

n 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

x

^•^"* ^
.— -

— *.

,,,,,|

i i i 1 i 1 i i I iI 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

RAT 0*

TOTAL

^
or»

-

—

^x\x—r
\

._s'~~~''^

19D

\

INVENTC)RY-SHiPM ENTS RAT 10
2.0

** "*,^ ~~_^~^"^
_

*•— --*""

1,8

-

**»• -^ "^
1.6

NONDURA 3LE GOODS

^V^ ^

1.4

40
I l l l l l 1 I I II

i iiii1 ii1 1i

1977

1978

1 | 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 M

1979

11111 11111
1980

i iii111111i
! 1981

1.2

11111i 11111 11111111111 11111111111
1977

1978

NonDurable durable
goods
goods

Durab ie goods
ManufacCapital
NonNonturers'
goods
Total Durable
durable
Total
durable
unfilled
indusgoods
Total
goods
goods orders *
tries.
nondefense
Millions of dolkirs, season ally adjusted

44, 228
43, 656
50, 689
59, 267
67, 848
75, 803
78, 003

40, 567
42, 939
48, 113
53, 934
59, 104
68, 138
75, 826

1980: Oct__. 161, 038
Nov__ 162, 384
Dee_. 163, 719

82, 518
83, 229
83, 482

78, 521 256, 218 169, 781
79, 155 257, 042 170, 275
80, 236 257, 979 171, 603

86, 437 161, 924 83, 364
86, 767 163, 020 83, 971
86, 376 166, 900 86, 577

1981: Jan__. 164, 588
Feb___ 165, 508
Mar__ 165, 804
Apr___ 167, 491
May._ 167, 527
June-- 171, 494
July.. 170, 324
Aug__ 169, 518
Sept.. 168, 581
Oct _ _ 164, 085
Nov *

83, 329
84, 215
85, 058
86, 327
86, 664
88, 770
87, 319
86, 841
86, 179
82, 583
80, 875

81, 259
81, 293
80, 746
81, 164
80, 863
82, 724
83, 005
82, 677
82, 402
81, 502

87, 529
88, 876
90, 295
90, 383
91, 625
91, 033
91, 017
91, 140
91, 476
91, 722

157, 792
159, 934
175, 193
189, 157
210, 079
241, 572
257, 979

261, 752
264, 496
266, 524
267, 506
269, 260
269, 709
271, 872
273, 361
276, 616
278, 440

101, 739
102, 874
112, 581
121, 646
137, 712
161, 390
171, 603

174, 223
175, 620
176, 229
177, 123
177, 635
178, 676
180, 855
182, 221
185, 140
186, 718

1 Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales.
2 Book value, end of period.
End of period.
* For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly
8




1 111 1 111111
1981

1980

Mamifacturer s new ore ers1

84, 794
86, 595
98, 802
113,201
126, 953
143, 941
153, 828

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

I i i i i Ii i i il

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Manufa(Jturers' sh ipments 1 Manufac turers'* im"entories2

Total

y

^

1979

*SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Period

_

\
NONEJURABLE GOO US

40

56, 053
57, 060
62, 612
67, 511
72, 367
80, 182
86, 376

87, 268
85, 149
99, 543
115, 027
131, 612
147, 576
155, 059

165, 423
166, 987
167, 361
168, 584
169, 340
170, 913
172, 611
170, 063
168, 444
159, 005

46, 853
42, 019
51, 398
61, 076
72, 358
79, 353
79, 264

84, 208
85, 446
86, 729
87, 180
88, 164
88, 303
89, 696
87, 350
86, 278
77, 804
78, 652

12, 673
11, Oil
12, 799
15, 276
19, 450
22, 510
22, 548

40, 415
43, 130
48, 145
53, 951
59, 254
68, 223
75, 795

Manufacturers'
inventory —
shipments
ratio4

191, 102
173, 829
182, 499
204, 814
261, 082
304, 963
319, 729

1.65
1.84
1.69
1. 61
1.57
1. 57
1.65

21, 625 78, 560 315, 912
23, 350 79, 049 316, 547
24, 664 80, 323 319, 729

1.59
1.58
1.58

24, 823
21, 185
24, 460
24, 723
23, 865
23, 230
24, 226
24, 700
23, 026
20, 996
23, 197

1.59
1.60
1.61
1.60
1.61
1.57
1.60
1. 61
1. 64
1.70

81, 216
81, 541
80, 632
81, 404
81, 176
82, 610
82, 915
82, 713
82, 166
81, 201

320, 566
322, 045
323, 602
324, 694
326, 508
325, 918
328, 206
328, 757
328, 613
323, 538

shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments
for month.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

01

PRODUCER PRICES

PRICES

In November, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.5 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished
consumer foods fell 0.5 percent, and prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0.8 percent. Prices of capital equipment rose 0.8 percent from their October level.
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)

INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)

300

140 -

140

120

120

1981
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[1967 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
j ?inishec1 goods
In ;ermedi ate
Crud e matei ials
rnaterial s
Total
finFoodished
stuffs
Foods
Capiconsumer Total and l Other Total and Other
tal
feedfeeds
equip- goods
stuffs
ment
123. 5 129.2 131.6 168.4 128. 1 174. 0 180. 0 162.5
141. 0 149. 3 162.9 200.2 159. 5 196. 1 189. 4 208. 9
162.5 163. 6 180. 0 195. 3 178.6 196.9 191.8 206.9
173.4 169.7 189. 1 185.3 189.4 202. 7 190.2 228.5
184.6 180.7 201.5 190.5 202. 3 209.2 192. 1 245.0
199.2 194. 9 215. 6 203. 1 216.5 234. 4 216.2 272. 3
216.5 217.9 242.2 226. 1 244. 4 274.3 247.9 330.0
239. 8 248. 9 280. 3 252. 6 282.3 304.6 259.2 401. 0
249. 7 258.9 290.2 286. 1 290.5 330.7 283. 3 431.2
250.8 259. 7 293.5 270. 1 295.2 328. 1 275.9 438.9
253.7 262.7 297.4 270.6 299.4 328.8 272.9 447.8
256. 1 264. 6 298.5 260.1 301.3 332.4 263.8 479. 0
258.0 268. 1 301.6 253.4 305. 2 328. 1 258.4 477. 2
260.4 270.2 3046 254.4 308. 4 332.8 262.4 483.5
262.3 270.9 306. 1 253.5 310.0 331.3 256.7 491. 3
264. 1 272. 1 306. 8 252. 1 310.9 335.2 263.8 488. 1
265.9 273.0 307. 8 250.6 312.0 336.9 264. 7 491. 5
267.7 272.9 309.2 253.2 313.4 333.9 262.0 487.9
267.8 273.5 309.4 245.5 314.2 330.2 255.4 490.6
270.2 274.7 309. 3 i 242. 0 314. 3 324. 6 248.9 486. 9
272. 4 276.0 310. 2 237.4 315. 7 i 320.0 243.6 483.8

Finished goods e xcludin g
cons umer fc>ods

Period

1973
__
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980.
1980: Nov
Dec
1981: Jan
Feb
Mar__
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov _ _ _

Total
Confinished sumer
goods foods Total

127.9
147. 5
163.4
170.6
181.7
195. 9
217.7
247. 0
256.9
257.8
260.8
262.8
266.0
268. 1
269. 1
270.4
271.5
271.8
272.3
273.8
275.2

146.4
166.9
181. 0
180. 4
189.9
207. 2
226.2
239.5
250.8
250.9
251. 1
249.5
251. 9
251. 6
251.8
253. 0
256.5
256.4
256.5
255.9
254.6

120. 1
139. 3
156. 2
166. 1
177.7
190. 7
213. 3
247.8
257.3
258.4
262.3
265.4
268.8
271. 7
272. 9
274.3
274. 6
275.0
275.6
277.7
280.0

Conssumer goods
Total

Unable

Nondurable

118.6
138.6
153. 1
162.6
174.3
186. 7
211.5
250.8
260. 1
261.2
265.3
268.7
272.6
275.7
276.6
277. 8
277.6
277. 5
278. 3
280.3
282. 6

115.4
125.9
138. 2
144. 5
152.8
166. 9
183.2
206. 2
213.3
212.9
213.6
214.7
214.0
215.7
217.9
218. 9
218. 3
219.4
218.7
222. 5
224.5

120. 5
146.8
163. 0
174.8
189.3
200. 0
231.3
283.9
294.8
297.4
303.9
309.0
316. 3
320.4
320. 4
321.7
321.9
320.8
322.9
323. 5
326.0

> Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds.

22



NOTE.—Data revised for July 1981.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

CONSUMER PRICES
In November, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.5 percent, seasonally adjusted (0.3 percent
unadjusted). Food and beverage prices were up 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted, and energy prices were down 0.2
percent, unadjusted.
INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE)
320

INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)
320
UNADJUSTED

300

300

280

280

260

260

240

240

220

220

200

200

ALL ITEMS
180

180

160

140

1975

1973

1976

120

i Ii i i
1978

1977

1981

SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[1967=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Tr£insportat ion

Housing
Food
All 1 and
items beverages

Period

NSA
5

Rel. imp. ,. 100.0

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979— _
1980
1980: Nov.
Dec__
1981: Jan_.
Feb__
Mar.
Apr._
May.
JuneJuly..
Aug_.
Sept_
Oct__
Nov__
1
Includes
2
Includes
3

133. 1
147. 7
161.2
170.5
181.5
195.4
217.4
246.8
256.2
258.4
260.5
263.2
265. 1
266.8
269. 0
271.3
274.4
276. 5
279.3
279. 9
280. 7

Financ- Apparel
ing,
Home taxes,
and
Total i purupkeep
and
Total i
chase insurance
NSA
NSA

Motor
fuel 2

Medical En- 3
ergy
care

NSA

18. 3

45. 5

10.8

12.0

4.9

19.0

3.6

5.9

4.7

10.8

41.6

49.6

139.5
158.7
172. 1
177.4
188. 0
206.3
228.5
248.0
260.2
262.6
262. 6
263. 4
2645
264.5
263.9
264.5
266. 7
268.7
271.3
271. 9
272.5

133.7
148.8
164.5
174.6
186.5
202.8
227.6
263. 3
274. 1
277.4
279.5
281.3
282.8
284.8
288.4
291.7
296. 5
299.4
303.3
303.3
304. 6

132.7
142. 7
160.3
168.4
179.5
196.7
223. 1
254. 3
267.3
267.2
266.2
263.0
261. 1
260.7
263. 0
266. 6
271.4
272. 6
274. 5
272.5
270. 2

160.6
181. 1
201.9
212.8
227. 2
257.8
308.9
396. 0
416.9
429.4
435.2
437. 1
441. 1
447. 1
458. 3
467.2
480.0
488. 3
501.8
501. 8
505.6

126.8
136.2
142. 3
147.6
154.2
159. 6
166.6
178.4
182.8
182.8
182.5
184. 0
185. 8
186. 1
185.7
185.8
186. 8
188.3
189.4
189. 7
189.3

123.8
137.7
150. 6
165.5
177.2
185.5
212.0
249.7
259. 9
262.4
267.0
273.4
275.9
275. 7
276.5
277.2
279.4
281. 1
284.4
287.8
290.2

111. 1
117.5
127.6
135.7
142. 9
153.8
166.0
179. 3
183.5
183.3
183.5
183. 3
182.5
185.7
190. 1
192.2
193. 3
193.4
194.6
194. 1
194. 5

118. 1
159.9
170.8
177.9
188.2
196.3
265. 6
369. 1
373.6
377.3
391.5
417.5
427. 1
421. 0
414.8
408.7
404.8
403.6
2
405. 8
410. 7
412. 8

137.7
150.5
168. 6
184.7
202.4
219.4
239. 7
265.9
274.6
276.2
279.2
281.7
284. 1
286. 6
289. 1
292. 1
295.9
299.6
302. 2
305. 1
308. 3

123. 5
159. 7
176.6
189. 3
207.3
220.4
275.9
361. 1
366. 1
370.4
381.7
401. 1
409.3
409.8
411. 3
414.0
415.7
416. 1
417. 1
414. 9
414. 1

139. 1
152. 1
166. 6
180.4
194. 3
210.9
234. 2
270.3
281.5
285.5
288.0
290.3
292.6
295.4
299.6
303. 1
308. 5
312. 1
316.9
318. 3
321.0

128.5
138. 5
150.5
160. 8
170.6
180.9
194. 1
211.6
219. 1
220.8
221.9
223. 7
225. 1
226. 9
228.3
229. 9
232. 6
234. 3
236. 7
238.4
239. 7

items not shown separately.
direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981.
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel,
motcr
oil, coolant, etc.
4
Estimated series. Finance includes financing, taxes, and insurance.




New
cars

All items
less food,
energy,
Serv- and home
ices
purchase
and
finance 4

* Relative importance, December 1980.
NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban
wage earners and clerical workers.
QQ
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
«%3

CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS

Period

Percent change from pre ceding
period ; seasomilly adju stedi

Percent* change from 3 naonths
earlie r; season ally adjiisted
annual rates

Percen t change from 6 rnonths
earlie r; seasonlally adjiisted
annua I rates

Consume;r goods

Consumejr goods

Consum »r goods

Total
finished
goods

Foods

..

3.8
11.8
18.3
6.6
3.7
6.9
9.2
12.8
11.8

8.0
22.5
13.0
5.5
2.5
6.9
11.7
7.4
7.5

2.0
7.4
20.5
6.7
6.0
6.7
8.5
17.5
14.2

2.0
5.3
22.6
8.2
6.4
7.3
7.9
8.8
11.4

1980: Nov...........
Dee
.....

.7
.4

.3
.0

.9
.4

.6
.4

1981: Jan......
Feb
..
Mar
Apr
May
June...
July.
Aug
Sept
Oct....
Nov
.

1.2
.8
1.2
.8
.4
.5
.4
.1
.2
.6
.5

.1
— ,6
1.0
-.1
.1
.5
1.4
-.0
.0
—.2
-.5

1.6
1.3
1.5
1. 1
.3
.4
— .1

1.2
.9
.7
.9
.7
.7
.7
.7
.0
.9
.8

1972..
1973
1974..
1975
1976....
1977
1978..
1979
1980

„

......
..
.

Capital Total
equipfinExclud- ment
ished
ing
Foods
goods
foods

Capital Total
finequipished
Exclud- ment
goods
ing
foods

__ o

.3
.7
.8

8.0
8.3
9.2
9.5
13.3
11.7
9.9
6.8
5.2
4. 1
2.8
3.4
5.1

i Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted).
NofE.—Based on revised data for July 1981.

Capital
equipExclud- ment
Foods
ing
foods

6.3
4.3

7.9
8.9

10.4
11.8

12.0
10.9

18. 1
16.9

9.5
8.2

11.4
10.9

1.8
-2.1
1.6
.8
3.7
1.8
8.0
7.5
5.6
9
-2.8

12.2
13.9
18.6
16.6
12.3
7.9
2.8
1.3
.7
3.9
7.6

9.3
10.7
12.0
11.0
10.0
9.8
8.7
8.5
5.7
6.6
7.2

9.7
8.8
10.8
10.5
9.7
10.0
8.4
7.0
48
4.3
4.6

8.9
2.0
2.9
1.3
.8
1.7
4. 3
5.6
3.7
3.4
2.2

9.4
10.9
13.7
144
13. 1
13. 1
9.5
6.7
42
3.4
44

10.7
10.5
11.9
10.2
10.3
10.9
9.8
9.3
7.7
7.7
7.8

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES

[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted l]
Tra nsporta tion

]Housing

FiAr\
PFood
nanc- parel
Med- En-4
All 2 and
Home ing,
ical ergy
New Motor
and
3
2
beveritems
pur- taxes, up- Total cars fuel
care
ages Total * chase and keep
insurance
NSA
NSA NSA
A

Period

1973. _ _ - 8.8
1974
12.2
1975.. > ... 7.0
1976...... 4,8
1977....— 6.8
9.0
1978
1979
. 13.3
12.4
1980
1980: Nov.. 1.1
Dec._ 1.0
.7
1981: Jan—
Feb_ 1.0
Mar..
.6
.4
Apr..
May.
.7
June.
,7
July.. 1.2
Aug...
.8
Sept.. 1.2
Oct_.
.4
.5
Nov-

18. 5
12.0
6.2
.8
7.6
11.6
10.0
10.1
1.2
.9
0
.3
,4
0
-.2
.2
.8
.7
1.0
.2
,2

3.4
6,9
13.4 10. 1
7.5 10.0
5.4
4.3
8.4
7.6
9.9 11.2
15.2 15.8
13.7 1L4
1.2
.7
1.2 -.0
.8 -.4
.6 -1.2
.5 ~ 7
2
.7
1.3
.9
1.4
1. 1
1.8
1.6
1.0
.4
.7
1.3
>j
0
o
.4
.o

11. 1
14.6
7.6
1.6
11.2
14.7
27.5
23.3
3.0
3.0
1.4
.4
.9
1.4
2.5
1.9
2.7
1.7
2.8
0
.8

4.4
8.7
2.3
4.5
4.2
3.2
5. 5
6.8
.4
0
o

.8
1.0
.2
-.2
.1
S5
.8
.6
.2

2

4.5
13.3
9.8
8.8
4.3
7.7
18.2
14.7
1.3
LO
L8
2.4
,9
— .1
.3
.3
,8
.6
1.2
1.2
,8

1
Annual changes are from December to December, not seasonally adjusted.
2
3 Include? items not shown separately.
Includes
direct pricing of diesel and gasohol beginning September 1981.
4

Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel,
motor
oil, coolant, etc.
8
Estimated series. Finance includes financing, taxes, and insurance.

24



1.3 19.7
11.5 20. 6
7.3 11.0
4.8
2.6
7.2
4.9
6.2
8.5
7.4 52.2
7.5 ia9
.6
.1
«_ j
1.0
,1
3.8
j
6.6
-.4
2.3
1.8 -1.4
2.4 -1.5
1. 1 -1.5
.6 -1.0
. 1 —8 . 3
.5
.6
g
1.2
.2
.5

5.2
12.4
9.9
10.1
8.8
8.8
10. 1
10.0
.6
.6
1.1
.9
,9
.9
.9
1.0
1.3
1.3
.9
1.0
1.0

All
Adden<lum:
items
All it ems
less percent change
food,
Serv- energy, (annual rate)
ices
and
From From
home
3
6
3urehase
and 5months months
finance earlier earlier

6.2
16.8
21. 6 11.3
8. 1
11.6
7.3
6.9
7.2
7.9
8.0
9.3
37.4 13.7
18. 1 14.2
L3
-.5
1.2
1.4
3.1
.9
5. 1
.8
.8
2.0
.1
1.0
1.4
.4
.7
1.2
,4
1.8
1.2
.1
.2
1.5
.4
-.5
-.2
.8

4.0
11. 1
6. 3
6.8
5, 5
6.9
7,5
9.9
.8
,8
.5
.8
.6
.8
.6

,7

1.2
.7
1.0
.7
.5

NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data beginning 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier
wage earners and clerical workers.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

13.5
13.2
11.8
11.2
9.6
8.2
7.0
7.4
10.8
11.5
13.5
9.9
8.4

10.5
10.5
11.9
12.3
11. 4
10.0
9. 1
8.5
9.5
9.2
10.4
10.3
9.9

are for urban

PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received by farmers fell 0.8 percent in November and prices paid by farmers were unchanged in the month
ended November 15.
INDEX, 1977=100

INDEX, 1977=100

(RATIO SCALE)

1973

(RATIO SCALE)

1981

j/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED 10 WDEX OF PRICES PAID.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

[1977=100]
Prices received by fa rmers
Period

All farm
products

1973
1974__
.___-__ _.
1975
1976
___
1977_____________
1978
_»
1979
.
.
.
.
1980
.
.
1980: Nov
.
Dec
_^
..
1981: Jan
.
.
.
.
Feb
.
Mar
Apr
May
.
,__
June
July
Aug
.
Sept

Dct

Nov
1
2

„

.

98
105
101
102
100
115
132
134
144
145
144
144
143
143
142
142
141
137
134
130
129

Crops

Livestock
and
products

91
117
105
102
100
106
116
125
140
142
144
144
146
143
143
137
136
129
120
119
120

Includes items not shown separately.
Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid,
interest, taxes, and wage rates.
NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by




104
94
98
101
100
124
147
144
149
148
145
144
141
143
141
146
146
145
146
140
138

Pric es paid by farrners
All commodi- Production
items,
ties, services, interest,
Production
interest,
items
taxes,
taxes, andl
and wage
wage rates
rates

71
81
89
95
100
108
123
139
144
144
147
148
149
150
150
151
150
151
151
151
151

72
81
89
95
100
109
125
140
145
145
149
149
150
151
151
152
151
150
150
149
149

73
83
91
97
100
108
125
138
144
145
146
147
148
150
150
150
149
149
149
147
147

Ratio2

138
130
113
107
100
106
107
96
100
101
98
97
96
95
95
94
94
91
89
86
85

law. The indexes have been converted to a 1977=100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.

25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS

MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS
Growth in the monetary aggregates accelerated in November.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIOSCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

Zl 2,400

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Ml- A

Currency
plus
demand
deposits
plus
travelers'
checks l

Period

1974:
1975:
1976:
1977:
1978:
1979:
1980:
1980:

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Nov
Dec
1981: Jan
Feb
Mar .
Apr
May_.
June
July
Aug.-.
Sept
Oct
Nov »

_
_

277. 1
290. 2
307.7
331. 4
354. 8
372.7
387. 7
391. 3
387.7
375. 1
367. 2
365.6
366.3
364. 7
361.9
361.4
362. 3
359.9
360.6
362.6

Ml-B

Ml- A plus
other
checkable
deposits
(OCD) at
banks and
thrift
institutions
278.0
291.8
311. 1
336.4
364. 2
390.5
415. 6
419. 1
415.6
419. 2
421. 2
425. 7
433.3
431.3
428.8
430. 1
432.8
431.8
433. 0
437.9

M2

Ml-B plus
overnight
RPs and
Eurodollars,
MMMF
shares, and
savings and
small time
deposits at
commercial
banks and
thrift
institutions 2
908.0
1, 024. 4
1, 169. 4
1, 296. 4
1, 404. 2
1, 525. 2
1, 669. 4
1, 668. 5
1, 669. 4
1, 680. 8
1, 695. 7
1, 718. 4
1, 737. 7
1, 743. 2
1, 749. 3
1, 760. 1
1, 777. 2
1, 786. 8
1, 798. 9
1, 824. 6

1
Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official
institutions.
3
Total M2 excludes demand deposits held by thrift institutions at commercial
banks,
not shown separately in components.
5
Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are
from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.

26



M3

L

M2 plus
large time
deposits
and term
RPs at
commercial
banks and
thrift
institutions

M3 plus
other liquid
assets

1, 060. 4
1, 163. 0
1, 302. 3
1, 462. 5
1, 625. 9
1, 775. 6
1, 965. 1
1, 951. 0
1, 965. 1
1, 989. 3
2, 009. 1
2, 027. 0
2, 045. 7
2, 060. 7
2, 079. 0
2, 094. 0
2, 117. 5
2, 133. 7
2, 144. 2
2, 168. 3

1, 246. 0
1, 373. 5
1, 528. 9
1, 722. 7
1, 936. 8
2, 151. 7
2, 378. 4
2, 355. 6
2, 378. 4
2, 408. 7
2, 433. 6
2, 445. 1
2, 457. 4
2, 479. 9
2, 502. 8
2, 519. 4
2, 550. 8
2, 574. 4

Percent chan ge frorri year
or 6 mont is earli<3r 3

Ml- A Ml-B

4.3 4.4
4.7 5.0
6.0 6.6
7.7 8. 1
7. 1 8.3
5. 0 7. 2
4.0 6.4
11.6 14.7
7. 7 10. 8

M2

5. 6
12.8
14.2
10.9
8. 3
8.6
9.5

13. 2
10. 3

10.2
8.4
-8. 0 7.2
7. 8
-10. 5 6. 9
9. 1
-11.8 8.3 10. 4
9.2
-13. 1 5.9
-12. 9 6.5 9.8
-7. 2 5.3 9.7
9.8
-2.7 5.6
-3. 1 2.9
8. 1
-3. 1 -. 1 7. 2
-1. 1 3. 1 9.6
0
. o

M3

8.4
9.7

12.0
12.3
11.2
9. 2
10.7
13. 2
12.5
12.7
12. 1
12.3
12.5
11.6
11.9
10.8
11. 1
10.8
9.9

10.7

NOTE.—See p. 27 for components except travelers' checks, which can be computed from data shown on these two pages.
Data revised beginning March 1981.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Overnight
Small
Money
Over- market
SavdeDe- Other repurnight
chase
checkmutual ings nomiCur- mand
Euroagreeable
de- nation
fund
Period rency de- l
dollars shares
posits time
posits deposits ments
(00 D) (RPs)
de/Vnvf\
(net)
posits 2
NSA
Dec:
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978_
1979.
1980.

2. 0

3.6
4.5

3. 8
10. 3
43.6
75. 8

486. 5
475. 5
416. 5
393. 0

28. 1
27.9

4.7
4.5

77.0 406. 1
75. 8 393. 0

738.0
756.8

27.5
27. 0
28.7
29. 3
31. 8
33.3
32.3
32.4
29. 8
26.9
27. 1

5. 2
4. 9

376.9
370.8
368.3
367. 0
361. 1
354.0
349. 1
340.7
334. 5
329. 6
330.8

775.7
783.3
789. 4
790.0
798.4
807. 7
811.3
821. 9
830. 7
841. 1
849. 7

17.8
28. 1

1980:
Nov_ 115. 7 271.6
Dee__ 116. 1 267.4

27.9
28. 1

1981:
Jan.. 116.6
Feb__ 117. 2
Mar_ 117.9
Apr__ 118. 9
May- 119. 8
June_ 119.9
July. 120.8
Aug__ 121. 2
Sept.. 121. 1
Oct.. 121. 4
Nov *> 122. 1

44. 3
54.3
60. 2
67.3
66.9
67.1
69. 0
70. 8
72.2
72.8
75. 6

254.4
245.8
243.5
243. 1
240.7
237.9
236.4
236.7
234. 4
234.7
235. 9

5. 0

9.4

2.3 333.9
3.6 383.9
3.4 447. 8

0.0
.0
.0
1.0

4.6
5.0
6.5
6.4
6.9
7.8
6.9
5.9

6. 5

80.7
92. 4
105. 6
117. 1
118. 1
122.8
134. 3
145. 4
157.0
166. 4
176.6

Term
Shortrepur- Term
term
chase Euro- Sav- TreasBank- Comagree- dollars ings
ury
ers' merments (net) bonds secuaccept- cial
(RPs)
rities ances paper
NSA

144.0
129. 6
117.9
145. 1
194.0
219. 7
256. 8

13.6
17.6
21. 9
21.8
27.9

0.9
1.6
3.4

NSA

NSA

288.9
340. 1
396.2
453. 8
533.3
652. 7
756. 8

7.2
7.5

207.4
214. 1
224. 4
239. 7
253. 9
262.8
267. 4

67.8
73.8
80.6
88.6
97. 4
106. 1
116. 1

Large
denomination
time
deposits 2

1
Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions.
2 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in
amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively.

8.4
9.0

NSA

15. 0
21. 0
27.7
30.7
38.9

9. 7
13. 1
18.7
29.9
42. 9
48.4

63.2
67. 2
71.8
76. 4
80.3
79. 6
72.3

53. 6
77. 1
81. 1
90. 1
99. 6
129. 3
159.9

11.9
21.7
27. 0
32.5

245. 4
256.8

37. 1
38.9

46. 3
48. 4

72.6
72. 3

154.6
159.9

31.3 99. 8
32.5 100. 2

268. 0
273.9
271. 0
269. 5
277. 2
287. 3
290.3
296.6
299. 9
298.9
295.9

40. 4
39. 5
37.6
38. 5
40.2
42.4
43. 5
43.7
47. 1
46.4
47. 8

50.2
52. 2
52.2
52.6
57.0
57.9
58.7
61.0
61. 2

71.9
71. 1
70. 7
70. 4
69.9
69. 7
69.3
68. 8
68.4

165. 1
169. 9
164. 6
157. 6
157. 5
160.3
160. 7
161.8
167.8

33.0 99. 2
32.0 99. 4
33. 0 97. 6
34.6 96.5
35.7 99. 1
36. 5 99.3
37.2 99.6
36.9 104. 8
37.0 106. 2

8.0

10.6

8.4
8.8

50. 1
48. 1
51.8
63. 1
79. 4
97. 3
100. 2

NOTE.—See p. 26 for overall measures.
NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Installm ent credit e ^tended

Installm ent credit li quidated

Period
Total 1

1973
1974_._
1975
1976—
1977—
1978 _ _
1979_._
1980

__

1980: Oct
Nov
Dec
1981: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct...

__

.

Automobile

Revolving

Automobile

Revolving

Total *

702
213
956
934
596
125
174
580

152, 817
163,276
172, 675
189, 179
222, 138
254, 589
286, 396
304, 477

43, 696
46, 019
49, 444
53, 278
60. 437
69, 245
79, 186
83, 037

26, 699
31, 243
35, 616
41, 764
81, 348
96, 090
111, 546
126, 655

20, 218
9,489
7,408
21, 561
35, 462
43, 079
38, 381
1,410

7,544
7, 117
7,234

11, 124
10, 953
11, 614

26, 663
25, 152
25, 530

7,343
6, 872
6,932

10, 851
10, 688
10, 998

702
839
1,619

7, 237
8,333
8,700
7,205
7,320
7,442
8, 178
8,573
9, 176
7,139

11,483
11,867
12, 071
12, 352
11, 904
12, 668
12, 190
11,964
12, 335
12, 208

26,
26,
26,
26,
26,
27,
26,
26,
26,
25,

7,300
7,354
7,018
6,777
7,515
7, 385
6,970
6, 458
6,894
6, 177

10 926
11, 426
11,484
11, 514
11, 554
11, 650
11,713
11,473
12,042
11,818

1, 996
3, 108
2,331
1,346
1, 930
1, 954
2,859
2, 819
1, 014

173, 035
172, 765
180,083
210, 740
257, 600
297, 668
324, 777
305, 887

49, 606
46, 514
52, 420
63, 743
75, 641
87, 981
93, 901
83, 002

27, 365
25, 991
27, 149
27, 059
28, 706
29, 822
28, 878
28, 149
29, 005
28, 750
28, 899
29, 428
26, 952

28,
33,
36,
43,
87,
105,
120,
129,

i Includes "mobile home" and "other," not shown separately.




Total *

Net changek in amount outstanding

190
710
714
547
803
075
796
040
609
938

869

Automobile

Revolving

2,976
10, 465
15, 204
18, 736
14,715
— 35

2, 003
1,970
1,340
2, 170
6,248
9, 035
8, 628
2,925

201
245
302

273
265
616

-63
979

557
441
587
838
350

5,910

495

1,682

428
-195

57

1,208
2, 115
2, 282

962

1,018

477
491
293
390

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Eeserve System.

27

BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES
Growth in commercial bank loans and investments decelerated in November. Total adjusted reserves were unchanged
as a deadline in borrowings offset a rise in nonborrowed reserves.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS'(RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)

-ALL

COMMERCIAL BANKS

-60

60

40

40
1973

1974

1981

1975

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AVERAGES OF WEDNESDAY FIGURES
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

Total
loans
and
investments

Period

1974:
1975:
1976:
1977:
1978:
1979:
1980:

Dec
Dec... _
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec__

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
All c ommercial k)anks l
Depositc ry institu tions 3
igs (milReserves a djusted for changes Borrowii
lions of dollars,
Loans <a,nd leases
Investnlents
in resei ve requirem ents
unadji jsted)
CommerU.£5.
Other
cial and
NonSeaReTotal 2 industrial
Treasury
secuTotal
Total
borrowed quired
sonal
securities
rities
loans

713.9
745. 1
804.6
891.3
_ 1, 013. 4
1, 134. 6
1, 237. 0

520. 1
517.2
555. 0
632.3
746.9
848. 9
912.5

197.4
189. 9
191.3
211. 2
246. 1
291. 1
324. 9

53. 7
82.2
100.6
99. 5
93.3
93.8
110.6

140.0
145. 7
149.0
159.5
173.2
191.8
213. 9

31. 22
31. 28
31.82
33. 27
35.21
36. 58
39. 19

30.49
31. 15
31.77
32. 70
34.34
35. 11
37.50

30.96
31. 02
31.55
33. 08
34.98
36. 25
38.72

703
127
62
558
874

1,473
1, 617

32
13
12
54
134
82
116

1980: Nov
Dec_ _

1, 224. 0
_ _ 1, 237. 0

901.5
912. 5

320. 7
324.9

110.5
110.6

212. 1
213.9

39. 19
39. 19

37. 13
37.50

38.67
38. 72

2, 156
1,617

99
116

1981: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
JuJv
Aug__
Sept
Oct
.-. Nov

1, 253. 2
1, 262. 5
.
1, 262. 2
1, 267. 5
1, 280. 8
1, 288. 2
1, 294. 8
_ 1, 306. 0
___ 1, 317. 6
1, 326. 9
1, 330. 4

923.4
930. 1
929.2
934.7
944. 6
949.8
954. 8
964. 5
976.0
982.7
986. 8

329.3
330.8
330.6
331.8
336. 0
340. 2
345.8
352. 3
357. 7
361.7
362.4

113.5
115.2
114. 8
115.1
117.5
119.3
120.4
119.4
117.6
117. 1
113.3

216.2
217. 2
218.2
217.7
218.8
219. 1
219. 7
222. 0
224. 1
227. 1
230.3

39. 18
38.95
39.07
39. 27
39.54
39. 35
39.61
39. 88
40.62
40.27
40.27

37. 79
37. 65
38. 07
37.93
37. 31
37. 31
37.93
38.46
39. 16
39. 09
39. 61

38.87
38. 67
38.82
39. 14
39. 37
39. 10
39. 36
39. 68
40.29
40. 08
40.00

1,405
1,278
1,004
1,343
2,154
2,038
1, 751
1,408
1,473
1, 149

120
148
197
161
259
291
248
220
222
594
79

_

1
2
3

Data are averages of Wednesday figures.
Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States.
Data are averages of daily figures. Prior to November 13, 1980, the date of
implementation of the Monetary Control Act, data relate only to member banks.

28




685

Note.—Latest month's data for loans and investments are estima tes.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE
BUSINESS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Sources

Uses

External
Credit, market f unds

Period

Total

Internal 1

Total
Total

133.7
165. 8
208.7
202.9
167.9
223.4
264.2
320.4
366. 7
336.2
359.6
265. 4
325. 4
394.3
340.7
396.6
393. 1

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1980: I
II
III
IV
1981: I
II
III

9

73.5
85.0
91.7
85.6
119. 7
134.2
156. 1
171.9
190. 6
196.8
194.9
192.9
199.2
200.3
222.0
228.2
233.0

60.2
80.8
117.0
117. 3
48.3
89.2
108. 1
148.5
176. 1
139.3
164.7
72.5
126.3
194.0
118. 8
168.4
160. 1

45.6
57.6
72. 9
82.8
41.7
64.3
84. 6
93.2
104.8
106. 1
126.7
70. 1
93.3
134.3
78. 1
123.5
112.0

Securities
and

mortgages
41. 2
40. 7
36.9
39. 1
49. 7
48.0
48. 1
45.8
39.5
66. 5
65.9
62.3
63.5
74. 1
62. 1
29. 0
-4. 1

1

Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption
adjustments), capital consumption allowances and foreign branch profits,
dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained abroad.
2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S.

Loans
and
shortterm
paper

Other

2

14.6
23.2
44.0
34.5
6. 5
24.9
23.5
55. 3
71.4
33.2
37.9
2. 4
33.0
59.6
40.7
44.9
48. 1

4.4

16. 9
36.0
43.6
-8.0
16. 3
36.5
47. 4
65. 3
39.7
60.8
7.8

29.8
60.2
16. 0
94.5
116. 1

Total

122.7
149. 1
191.9
190. 1
150.9
201. 4
228.5
290. 9
340.6
291.7
310.6
224.8
289. 1
342.4
319.4
356. 3
362.9

In-

Capital
expenditures 3

crease
in
financial
assets

86. 0
99.0
121. 5
137.9
109.7
148.3
174. 1
199.2
220. 9
216.9
224. 1
212.0
207. 1
224. 3
231.6
265.4
276. 1

36.7
50. 1
70.5
52.2
41.2
53. 0
54.4
91.7
119.7
74.9
86.5
12. 8
82.0
118.2
87.8
90.9
86.8

Discrepancy
( sources
less
uses)

11.0
16.7
16.7
12.9
17.0
22. 0
35.7
29.5
26.2
44. 5
49.0
40.7
36.3
51. 9
21.4
40. 3
30. 1

8
Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS
[Billions of dollars, except as noted]
Curreiat assets
End of period
Total
SEC series:2
492. 3
1970__.
529. 6
1971
1972
599. 3
1973
697. 8
1974
790.7
FTC-FRB series:3
735.4
1974
1975
759. 0
1976
826.8
902. 1
1977
1978
1, 030. 0
1, 200. 9
1979
1980
1, 281. 6

1980: I.
II
III
IV

Cash

Curi •ent liabil ties

U.S.
Notes
governand
Invenment
acsecuri- counts tories
ties receivable

Other
current
assets

working
capital

Current
ratio l

50.2
53. 3
59. 0
66.3
71. 1

11.0
10. 6
12.8
12. 3

7.7

206. 1
221. 1
248.2
288. 5
322. 1

193. 3
200.4
225.7
263. 9
313.6

35. 0
43. 8
55. 8
66.4
71.7

304. 9
326. 0
375. 6
450. 9
530.4

211. 3
220. 5
282. 9
340. 3
402.3

93. 6
105. 5
92. 7
110.7
128. 1

187. 4
203. 6
223.7
246. 9
260. 3

1. 615
1.625
1. 595
1. 548
1 491

73.2
82. 1
88.2
95.8
104.5
116. 1
121.0

11. 1
19.0
23.4
17.6
16.3
15. 6
17. 3

265.8
272. 1
292.8
324.7
383.8
456. 8
491. 2

319.5
315. 9
342.4
374.8
426. 9
501.7
525. 4

65.9
69.9
80. 1
89.2
98. 5
110.8
126. 7

453. 4
451. 6
494.7
549. 4
665.5
809. 1
877.2

269.8
264. 2
281.9
313.2
373.7
456. 3
498. 3

183.6
187.4
212. 8
236. 2
291.7
352. 8
378. 9

282. 0
307. 4
332.2
352. 7
364. 6
391.8
404.4

1.622
1.681
1.672
1.642
1.548
1.484
1.461

__ 1, 234. 0
1, 232. 2
1, 254 9
1, 281. 6

110.5
111.5
113.4
121. 0

15.2
14.0
16.4
17. 3

470.3
463. 4
478.7
491.2

518.9
525.0
524. 5
525.4

119.2
118.3
121.9
126.7

836.5
826. 0
850.5
877.2

467.7
462.8
477.0
498.3

368.8
363.2
373.5
378.9

397.5
406.2
404.3
404. 4

1.475
1. 492
1.475
1.461

1, 321. 2
1, 317. 7

120.5
118. 5

17.0
18.3

507. 3
507. 1

542. 8
540.0

133.6
133.7

910.9
908. 1

504.0
500.8

406. 9
407.2

410. 3
409. 6

1.450
1.451

1981: I
II
1
Total current assets
1
Based on data from
3

divided by total current liabilities.
Statistics of Income. Department of the Treasury.
Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and
Trade Corporations, Federal Trade Commission.




Total

Net

Notes
Other
and
current
accounts liabilities
payable

NOTE.—SEC series not available after 1974.
See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978. for details regarding the series.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Trade
Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission.

29

INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS
Interest rates rose in December.
PERCENT PER ANNUM

DISCOUNT
RATE
FEDERAL
RESERVE
BANK OF
NEW YORK

I- /
\! /

1973
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW

Period

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1980: Nov
Dec
1981: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Week ended:
1981: Nov 14
21
28
Dec 5
12
19
26
1982: Jan 2

[Percent per annum)
High-grade Corporate Prime com- Discount
U.S. Treeisury securit y yields
municipal
mercial
rate
2
Aaa
Constant nlaturities
(N.Y.
bonds
paper,
3-month
(Standard
F.R.
6
bills »
10-year & Poor's) 3 (Moody's) months * Bank) «
3-year
7.99
7.49
*6.
33
6.25
5.838
6.89
8.83
4
7.61
6.77
4.989
6.49
8.43
5. 35
5.50
4
7.42
6.69
8.02
5.265
5.56
5. 60
5.46
4
8.41
8.29
7.221
5.90
a 73
7. 99
7.46
9.44
9.71
10.28
10. 041
6.39
9.63
10.91
11.55
11.46
8.51
11.94
11. 506
12.29
11.77
12.68
13.
31
11-12
9.55
14.73
13. 888
12.97
13.65
12.84
13.21
10.09
12-13
15. 661
16.49
12.57
13. 01
14. 724
9.65
15. 10
13-13
12.81
13.65
13.
19
13-13
10.03
14. 905
13. 35
14.87
13.
12
13.51
10.12
13.59
13-13
13. 478
13.33
13.68
14. 09
13-13
10.55
13.88
14 17
13. 635
15.08
14.
10
14.32
10.73
13-14
16.66
16. 295
14.29
13.47
15.22
10.56
14-14
13.75
14 557
14.28
15.15
11.03
16.09
14-14
14.38
14. 699
14.94
16.00
12. 13
16.62
14-14
15. 612
14.89
16.22
15.32
14-14
14. 951
15.93
_
12.86
15.49
15.50
15. 15
14-14
12.67
14 72
15.40
13. 873
._
13.11
13.39
11.71
14.22
14-13
11. 269
11.96
1310. 926

1
2

11. 128
10. 693
10. 560
10. 400
10. 404
11. 101
11. 037
11. 690

13.07
12. 72
12. 67
13.06
13.46
13.56
14.15

13.29
13.09
13. 12
13. 32
13. 66
13.58
14. 00

10.98
11.60
11.81
12. 01
12.85
12. 88
13.03

Rate on new issues within period; bank-discount basis.
Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities
by the Treasury Department.
8 Weekly data are Wednesday figures.
* Prior to November 1,1979, data are for 4-6 months paper.
2 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week.

30



14. 18
13.92
13.92
13. 99
14. 16
14. 11
14.36

12. 19
11.45
11.04
11. 30
11. 60
12.34
12.71

13-13
13-13
13-13
13-12
12-12
12-12
12-12
12-

Prime
rate
charged
by
banks 5

7.86
6.84
6.83
9.06
12.67
15.27
14/2-17%
17%-21/2
21H-20
20-19
19-17/2
17/2-18
18-20K
20/9-20
20-20H
20/2-20/2
20/2-19/2
19/2-18
18-16
15%-

Newhome
mortgage
vields
(FHLBB)«
9. 01
8.99
9.01
9. 54
10.77
12. 65
13.04
13.28
13.26
13.54
14.02
14.15
14.10
1467
14.72
15.27
15.29
15.65
16.36

17/2-17
17-16J4
16^-16
16-15%
153/4-15%
15%-15%
15%-15%
15%-

1
Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting
fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment
at end of 10 years. Rates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable with
prior rates.
Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service,
and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS
Stock prices rose in December.
INDEX, DEC 31, 1965=50

INDEX, DEC 31,1965=50

COMPOSITE PRICE INDEX STOCK
(NYSE)

- 5

5 -

1973

1981

SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Common s tock 5 yields
( perc ent)

Cominon stock pirices 1
Period

New York Stock Exch ange indexes3 (Dec. 31, 1 965 = 50) *
Composite Industrial Transportation

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1980: Nov
__
Dec
1981: Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May.June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Week ended:
1981: Nov 14
21
28
Dec 5
12
19
26

45.73
54.46
53. 69
53.70
58.32
68. 10
78.15
76.69
76.24
73. 52
76.46
77. 60
76.28
76.80
74.98
75.24
68. 37
69.40
71.49

50. 52
60.44
57.86
58.23
64.76
78.70
92.32
90. 37
89.23
85. 74
89.39
90.57
88.78
88.63
86.64
86.72
78.07
78.93
80.86

31. 10
39. 57
41.09
43.50
47. 34
60.61
77.23
75.74
74.43
72.76
77.09
80.63
76.78
76.71
74.42
73.27
63.67
65.65
67.68

31.50
36.97
40.92
39.22
38. 21
37.35
38.35
37.84
38.53
37.59
37.82
38.34
38.27
39. 23
38.90
40.22
38. 17
38.87
40.73

47. 14
52. 94
55. 25
56.65
61.42
64.25
67.21
67.46
70. 04
68.48
72.82
74.59
74.65
79.79
74.97
73.76
69.38
72.56
76.47

802. 49
974. 92
894.63
820. 23
844. 40
891. 41
971. 08
945. 96
962. 13
945. 50
987. 18
1, 004. 86
979. 52
996. 27
947. 94
926. 25
853. 38
853. 25
860. 44

86. 16
102. 01
98.20
96.02
103. 01
118. 78
135. 65
133. 48
132. 97
128. 40
133. 19
134. 43
131.73
132. 28
129. 13
129. 63
118. 27
119.80
122. 92

4.31
3.77
4.62
5.28
5.47
5.26
4. 63
4.74
4.80
5.00
4.88
4.86
4.98
5.03
5. 18
5. 16
5.69
5.65
5.54

71.43
70.35
71.91
72. 97
72.59
71.38
71.22

80.66
79. 14
81.35
82. 97
82.58
81.24
81. 06

68.24
65.81
67.88
69.78
69. 41
68.02
67.43

40.84
41. 03
40.92
40.68
40.60
39.95
39.96

76.88
76. 14
76.91
76.94
75. 68
74.09
73.68

856. 55
847. 39
871. 53
887. 67
887. 10
872. 49
872. 03

122. 75
120. 81
123. 56
125. 70
125. 23
123. 06
122. 77

5. 54
5.66
5.50
5.47
5. 45
5.62
5.64

i Average of daily closing prices.
a Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE.
s Includes 30 stocks.
* Includes 500 stocks.
s Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing
prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.




Finance

Utility

Standard
& Poor's
DowEarningscomposite DividendJones
price
price
index
industrial3
ratio
ratio
average (1941-43=
10) 4

9. 15
8.90
10.79
12.03
13.46
12. 66

10.92
10.72
11.48

XOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange
(NYSE).
Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

31

FEDERAL FINANCE
FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBT
In the first 2 months of fiscal year 1982, there was a budget deficit of $28.7 billion, compared to a deficit of $25.8
billion a year earlier.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
800

700

500

400

300

300

200

200

50

50

SURPLUS (+) OR DEFICIT (-)

0

0
-50

-50
-100

-100

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

FISCAL YEARS
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

[Billions of dollars]
Receipts

Period
Fiscal year or period :
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976

_ _

Transition quarter
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

_.
„
_,

1982 (estimates):
First Concurrent Resolution, May
21, 1981.
Mid-Session Review, July 1981 l
Cumulative total, first 2 months:
Fiscal year 1981 _ _
__
Fiscal year 1982

_.

1
Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 198® Budget, Office of Management
and Budget, July 15,1981.

32



Outlays

Surplus or
deficit (-)

Federal debt ( end of period)
Gross

Held by
the public

188.4
208.6
232. 2
264.9
281. 0
300.0
81.8
357.8
402. 0
465.9
520. 1
602.6

211.4
232. 0
247. 1
269.6
326. 2
366.4
94.7
402.7
450.8
493.6
579. 6
660.5

-23.0
-23.4
-14.8
-4.7
-45. 2
-66. 4
-13.0
-45.0
-48.8
-27.7
-59. 5
-57.9

409. 5
437.3
468.4
486. 2
544 1
631.9
646.4
709. 1
780.4
833.8
914 3
1, 003. 9

304.3
323. 8
343.0
346. 1
396.9
480.3
498. 3
551.8
610. 9
644.6
715. 1
794.4

657.8
662.4

695. 5
7048

-37.7
-42.5

1, 079. 8
1, 079. 2

845.1

78. 1
89.8

103.9
118. 5

-25. 8
-28.7

920. 3
1, 019. 3

729. 1
815.8

Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget,
except as noted.

FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND
OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
In the first 2 months of fiscal 1982, budget receipts were $11.7 billion higher than a year earlier and budget outlays
were $14.6 billion higher.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

400

400

100

100

600

600
OUTLAYS

500

500

400

400
NONDEFENSE

300

300

200

200
NATIONAL DEFENSE

100

100
1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1982

1981

1980

FISCAL YEARS
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

[Billions of dollars]

(Dutlays

Receipts
Nationa L defense
Period
Total

Fiscal year or period:
1971
1972
.
1973
1974
1975
1976
Transition quarter
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982 (estimate) »

Indi- Corpovidual ration
income income
taxes
taxes

Other

Total

Department of
Defense,
military

Total

Interna- Health
Inand
tional
income terest Other
affairs security

188.4
208. 6
232.2
264. 9
281.0
300.0
81.8
357.8
402. 0
465. 9
520. 1
602. 6
662.4

86.2
94. 7
103.2
119. 0
122.4
131.6
38.8
157.6
181.0
217. 8
244. 1
285.6
302. 9

26.8
32.2
36. 2
38.6
40. 6
41.4
8.5
54. 9
60. 0
65.7
64. 6
61. 1
66.8

75.4
81. 7
92. 8
107. 4
118.0
127.0
34.5
145. 2
161. 1
182. 4
211.4
255.9
292.7

211.4
232.0
247. 1
269.6
326. 2
366.4
94.7
402. 7
450.8
493. 6
579.6
660.5
704.8

75.8
76. 6
74.5
77. 8
85.6
89.4
22. 3
97.5
105.2
117.7
135.9
159.7
188. 1

74.5
75. 1
73.2
77. 6
84. 9
87.9
21. 9
95.6
103. 0
115.0
132. 8
156. 0
183.8

4. 1
4.7
4. 1
5.7
6.9
5.6
2.2
4.8
5.9
6. 1
10. 5
11. 1
11.4

70. 1
81.4
91.8
106.5
136.2
160.8
41.5
176.7
189. 9
209. 8
250.3
294.9
312.3

19.6
20.6
22.8
28.0
30.9
34.5
7.2
38.0
44.0
52.6
64.6
82.6
92.3

41.8
48.8
53.9
51. 6
66.5
76. 1
21.5
85.7
105. 9
107.5
118.4
112. 3
100.7

Cumulative total ,first2 months :
Fiscal year 1981 ^
78. 1
Fiscal year 1982
89. 8

42. 0
44.3

2.3
2.0

33.8
43.4

103.9
118.5

24. 9
28. 9

24. 3
28.2

1.7
1.7

45.9
51.0

10.7
14.7

20.8
22. 3

i Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 198% Budget, Office of Management
and Budget, July 15,1981.




Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office ot Management and Budget.

33

FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS
In the third quarter, according to revised estimates, Federal receipts rose $17.3 billion (annual rate) and expenditures
rose $25.8 billion, yielding a deficit of $55.7 billion, $8.5 billion larger than the deficit in the second quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

700

700

400

300

200

50

50
SURPLUS

0
DEFICIT

-50

-50

-100

-100
1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1979

1978

1981

1980

CALENDAR YEARS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

Indirect ContriPurPersonal Corporate business butions
chases Transtax
and
Total nontax profits tax and
Total of goods fer payfor
tax
ments
nontax .social inand
receipts accruals
services
accruals surance

Subsidies Less:
Grants( }
less
Wage
in-aid
current accruals national
to State Net
income
and interest surplus of Jess
and
paid Govern- dislocal
ment en- burse- product
governterprises ments accounts
ments

-' ,

Fiscal year:
365.9
1977
414. 2
1978
1979
480. 7
1980
527.3

166.4
- 186.4
223. 1
249.7

58.8
67.2
75. 8
70.6

24. 5
27. 2
29. 1
35.7

116. 2
133.4
152. 7
171.3

411. 7
450. 5
494. 7
578.2

140.3
150.7
163. 4
190.2

169.8
182. 2
201.8
239.3

66.3
74. 7
79. 1
86. 7

28. 4
33. 5
40.6
51. 2

Calendar
year:
375. 1
1977
1978
431.5
494. 4
1979
1980
540.8
1980: 1
528.4
II... 520. 9
III.. 540. 8
IV___ 573. 2
1981: I
617. 4
II__- 621.0
III __ 638.3

170. 1
194. 9
231. 4
257. 8
246.9
252. 0
259. 4
272.9
283.3
293. 2
306.4

61. 6
71. 2
74.6
70.2
80.5
60. 9
66. 7
72.6
74.6
64. 8
66. 4

25. 0
28. 1
29. 4
40. 6
31.9
38.7
42. 9
49. 1
60.6
62.6
61.8

118. 5
137.2
159. 0
172. 2
169.2
169. 3
171. 8
178.6
198.9
200. 4
203.7

421. 5
460.7
509.2
602.0
564.7
587.3
615. 0
641. 1
664.0
668. 2
694. 0

143.9
153. 4
167.9
198. 9
190.0
198. 7
194. 9
212. 0
221.6
219. 5
226.4

172.8
185. 6
209. 1
249.8
228. 9
236. 0
265. 3
269.0
271. 9
274. 8
293.6

67.5
77.3
80.4
88.0
85. 5
87.2
87.7
91. 8
90.2
89.6
85. 4

29. 1
35.2
42. 3
53.3
50. 3
54. 4
53, 5
55.2
67.7
70. 4
75. 6

9.6
9.8

0.0

10.8

-. 0
.0
.0

-45.8
-36. 3
-14. 0
-50. 9

8. 2

.0

-46. 4
-29. 2
-14. 8
-61.2
-36. 3
-66. 5
-74.2
-67. 9
-46.6
-47.2
-55. 7

7. 0

9.3
9.4

12. 0
10. 1
11. 0
13.7
13. 1
12. 6
13. 9
13.3

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureauof Economic Analysis); Department of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget.

34




Surplus
or
deficit

Fe deral Gc)vernmeiit expem litures

Federal (jovernm ent receip ts

.0
-. 0
.0

.0
.0

.0

.0
.0
.0
.2

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
[1967=100]
adjustet
isonally
.
In*iustrial produc tion (ses
1)
Period

United CanStates ada

1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980 *
1980: Dec
1981: Jan
Feb
Mar....
Apr
May
June
July..—
Aug*_—
Sept *.. _
Oct*__Nov v

129.3
117.8
130. 5
138.2
146. 1
152.5
147.0
150.4
151.4
151.8
152. 1
151.9
152.7
152.9
153. 9
153.6
151. 7
149.6
146. 5

149.2
140.3
148. 5
152.2
157. 7
166.0
162.7
1649
163.4
165.9
168.9
168.5
171. 0
171.8
167.9
165.2
163. 2
161.4

Japan

183. 1
163. 9
182.0
189. 7
201. 1
217.7
232.5
234.4
236.4
237.9
235.9
237.0
232. 6
238.4
241. 1
234. 1
240.3

France
148
139
149
152
155
163
160
162
151
149
156
151
150
152
155
155
156
157

Conssumer p rices (untadjustec I)

Germany

United
Can- Japan France
1
Italy King- United
dom States ada

145. 1
137. 1
149. 1
152.0
154.1
161.8
162.3
157
158
166
161
163
163
158
161
160
158

140.6 120.0
127.6 114.3
143.5 117.4
145. 1 122.9
147.9 126.9
157.6 131.7
166.5 122.6
160. 5 117.2
158.7 116.2
170.6 117.5
169.1 117.4
168.2 116.9
158.5 116. 0
158.7 118. 1
162.9 118.2
138.0 118. 0
163.2 118.5
159.2

i Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers.
Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, Inter-

147.7 144. 5 184.0 160. 0
161.2 160. 1 205.8 178.9
170. 5 172. 1 224. 9 196. 1
181.5 185.9 243.0 214.5
195.4 202. 5 252.3 233.9
217.4 221.0 261. 3 259. 1
246.8 243.5 282.2 294.2
258.4 255.8 288.3 309. 1
260.5 259. 1 291. 1 312.7
263.2 261.7 290.8 315.6
265. 1 265.2 292.2 318.8
266.8 267.2 294.5 323. 1
269. 0 269.6 297.0 326. 0
271.3 273.8 297.3 329.2
274.4 276.2 296.4 334.9
276.5 278.2 294.7 339.0
279. 3 280.2 299.5 342.9
279.9 283.0 300.7 347. 1
280.7 285.4

Germany

United
Kingdom

Italy

136.1
144.2
150.4
155.9
160. 2
166.8
175.9
179.4
180.9
182.3
183.5
184.7
185.4
186.3
187. 1
187.7
188.6
189.2

159. 7
186. 8
218. 1
255. 2
286.2
328.5
398. 0
432.5
440.7
449. 1
455.4
461. 3
468.7
473.9
477.7
481.0
487.7
497.5

174.3
216.5
252. 4
292.4
316. 6
359.0
423. 6
442. 7
445.5
449. 5
456.2
469.4
472.4
475.2
477. 3
480.8
483.5
487.9
492.4

national Trade Administration, Office of Planning and Eesearch, in International
Economic Indicators.

U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
[Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Merc iandise i mports
Mercllandise exports 1
Gcjneral im ports

Domesti c exports
Period

Monthly
average:
1973
1974

Total
domestic and
foreign Total
exports

5,902
8,167

1974*
8,170
1975*
8,971
1976*
9,602
1977*
10, 103
1978*
11, 973
1979*
15, 155
1980
18, 386
1980: Oet___ 19, 214
Nov___ 18,715
Dec.__ 19, 251
1981: Jan
18, 825
Feb___ 19, 764
Mar 21, 434
Apr
19, 818
May... 18, 869
June.__ 19, 870
July.... 19, 264
Aug.... 19, 050
Sept.. 19, 655
Oct._. .9, 044
Nov
19, 118

2

Food, Crude
Food, Crude
bever- mate- Manubever- mate2
facrials
ages,
rials
ages,
tured Total and
and to- and
to- and
goods
bacco
fuels
bacco
fuels

F.a.s. value 1
5,811 1,078
895
8,053 1,269 1,317

8,053
8,842
9,456
9,912
11, 753
14, 869
18, 036
18, 770
18, 344
18, 918
18, 459
19, 441
21, 000
19, 408
18, 499
19, 461
18, 894
18, 740
19, 212
18, 614
18, 716

1,269
1,399
1,436
1,330
1, 717
2,049
2,534
2,886
2,909
3,099
2,926
2,938
3,334
2,879
2,680
2,582
2,534
2,455
2,783
2,908
2,684

1,317
1,266
1,341
1,548
1,746
2,352
2,810
2,554
2,447
2,746
2,896
2, 936
3,245
2,458
2, 541
2,328
2,434
2,637
2,805
2,877
2,838

3,728
5,294

5,790
8,450

5,294
5,913
6,437
6,679
7,873
9,716
11,991
12, 473
12, 241
12, 368
11,913
12, 816
13, 658
13, 392
12, 562
13, 581
13, 046
13, 051
13, 030
12, 338
12, 580

8,548
8,209
10, 290
12, 533
14, 564
17, 455
20, 406
20, 347
19, 860
21, 436
23, 194
21, 922
20, 949
223 289
21, 310
21, 975
19, 807
23, 528
21, 229
23, 234

1
Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all
periods
and from monthly detail beginning January 1978.
1
Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.
•1 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.
C.i.f. (cost, insurance, and freight) import value at first port of entry in the
United
States. Data for 1973 are estimates.
5
F.a.s. (free alongside ship) value basis: at U.S. port of exportation for exports
and at foreign port of exportation for imports.




Custon is value
770 1,120
892 2,653
F.a.s. value 5
892 2,672
827 2,716
991 3,457
1,186 4,463
1,312 4,325
1,478 5,949
1,546 7,831
1,583 7,506
1, 680 7,059
1,583 8,331
1,748 9,041
1,588 9, 141
1,609 7,478
,477 8,947
,676 7,206
1,467 8,270
,385 6,598
,500 7,768
,396 7,400
,602 7,646

3

Manufactured
goods

Mei chandise
balance
Exports
Ex(f.a.s.) ports
less
(f.a.s.)
Total
imless
(c.i.f.
imvalue) * ports
(cusports
toms (f.a.s.)
value)

3,750
4,684

6, 131
9,033

4,602
4,257
5,398
6, 379
8,360
9, 357
10, 427
10, 520
10, 572
10, 897
11, 777
10, 714
11, 294
11, 291
11,822
11, 597
11, 296
13, 636
11,932
13, 261

9,207
8,828
11, 047
13, 371
15, 504
18, 519
21, 415
21, 244
20, 751
22, 364
24, 265
22, 910
21, 886
23, 283
22, 314
22, 993
20, 728
24, 665
22, 231
24, 312
23, 530

112
-283

-221

trade

Exports
(f.a.s.)
less
imports
(c.U.)

-229
-866

-378 -1,037
762
143
-688 -1,445
-2, 430 -3, 268
-2, 590 -3, 530
-2, 300 -3, 364
-2, 020 -3,030
-1, 134 -2, 031
-1,145 -2, 036
-2, 185 -3, 113
-4, 370 -5,440
-2, 158 -3, 146
485
-451
-2, 471 -3, 465
-2,441 -3,445
-2, 105 -3, 123
— 542 -1,463
-4,478 -5, 614
-1,574 -2, 576
-4, 191 -5,268
-4, 412

NOTE.—Data beginning 1975 not strictly comparable with earlier data.
Data for 1980 and 1981 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for
1980 Virgin Islands exports are reflected only in the figures for total domestic
and foreign exports and trade balance.
* Data for 1974-79 for total domestic and foreign exports, total general imports,
and trade balance include trade of the Virgin Islands.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

35

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
in the third quarter, the merchandise trade deficit increased slightly to $7.0 billion from $6.9 billion in the second
quarter. The current account registered a surplus of $2.1 billion, up from $1.1 billion in the second quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
10

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
10

1973

1981

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+), debits (—)]
M erchandise

Invejstment in come 3

12

Net

Period

Ex-

ports

Im-

ports

"NT
iN of
clholU«.l

ance

Re-

ceipts

Payments

71,410 -70,499
911 21, 808 -9, 655
98, 306 -103, 649 -5,343 27, 587 -12,084
9,047 25, 351 -12, 564
107, 088 -98,041
114, 745 -124,051 -9, 306 29, 286 -13,311
120, 816 -151,689 -30, 873 32, 179 -14,217
142, 054 -175,813 -33,759 43, 265 -21,865
184, 473 -211,819 -27,346 66, 699 -33,236
223, 966 -249,308 -25,342 75, 936 -43, 174
47, 236 -54, 210 -6,974 18, 055 -8,734
51, 367 -59, 726 -8,359 18, 952 -9,203
54, 898 -65,024 -10, 126 20, 465 -10,629
55, 667 -62,411 -6, 744 16, 860 - 10, 342
56, 252 -59, 154 -2,902 18, 850 -10,697
IV- 57, 149 -62, 719 -5,570 19, 764 -11,507
61, 098 -65,775 -4, 677 21, 566 -12,513
1981:1
II__. 60, 477 -67,387 -6,910 22, 399 -13,666
III*. 58, 037 -65,079 -7,042 23, 610 -14, 120

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1979: IIIIV_.
1980: !.__
II_III_.

1

Excludes military grants.
• Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage.
3
Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct
investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and
included in other services, net.

36



Net

12, 153
15, 503
12, 787
15, 975
17, 962
21, 400
33, 463
32, 762
9,321
9,749
9,836
6,518
8, 153
8,257
9, 053
8,733
9,490

military
transactions

Nettravel
and

transportation
receipts

-2,070 -3, 158
- 1, 653 -3, 184
-746 -2, 792
559 -2,558
1,528 -3,293
738 -3, 178
- 1, 947 -2,622
-2, 515
-798
-722
-565
-923
-545
-532
-918
-152
-427
-455
-38
-715
-76
-568
-668
__698
-245
-72

-66

Other
services,
net 3

Balance
on

goods
and

serv-1
ices

RemittanceSj
pensions,
and
other
unilateral
trans-1
fers

Balance
on

current
ac-

count

7, 140
3, 184 11, 021 -3,881
2, 124
9,309 -7, 186
3,986
4,598 22, 893 -4, 613 18, 280
4,384
9, 382 -4, 998
4,711
5,182 -9,493 -4,617 -14, 110
5,792 -9,008 -5, 067-14,075
1,414
7,008 -5, 593
5,460
3,723
6,674 10, 779 -7,056
1,052
1,393
2,453 -1,401
-189
1,312 -1,501
1,390
-217 -1,878 -2, 095
1,523
-545
1,592
787 -1,332
4,975
6,478 -1,503
1,719
1,390
3,734 -2,344
1,838
3,263
4,790 -1,527
1,650
1, 142
2, 660 -1, 518
1,780
2, 100
3, 994 -1,894
1, 684

NOTE.—Data revised for first and second quarters of 1981.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

U S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
In the capital accounts, U.S. official reserve assets abroad were unchanged in the third quarter following an increase
of $0.9 billion in the second quarter. Foreign official assets in the U.S. decreased 15.8 billion, following a *2.8
billion decrease in the second quarter.
_^••••••••_——•
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1 40

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
40

SEASONALLY

ADJUSTED

30

30

II

20

CHANGE IN
FOREIGN ASSETS

/

IN THE U.S., NET ,»•*

1
1
t
1

I
I
t

I I
I 1
I 1
I
1
I
1

I

"

20

i
10

-10

-10

-20
-20

-30
-30

-40

-40

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted. Credits (+), debits (—)1
Foreigii assets in the U.S.,
net [increase/G< apital inflow (4~)j 2

U.S. assets abroad, net
[inc rease/capit al outflow (
Period
Total

1973___ __
1974___ _„
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1979: III,__

-22, 874
-34, 745
-39, 703
-51,269
-34,785
-61,070
-62,639
-84, 776
-24, 942
IV— - 14, 003
1980: I
-12, 639
II
-24, 837
III -19,302
rv— -27, 995
1981: I
-22,397
!!___ -21, 971
Ill P. -18,004

U.S.
official
reserve
assets l 2

Other
U.S.
Government
assets

U.S.
private
assets

158 -2, 644 -20,388
-1, 467
366 -33, 643
-849 -3, 474 -35, 380
-2, 558 -4, 214 -44, 498
-375 -3,693 -30, 717
732 -4, 644 -57, 159
-1, 133 -3, 767 -57,739
-8, 155 -5, 165 -71,456
2,779
-778 -26, 943
-649
-925 -12,429
-3,268 -1,456 -7,915
502 -1, 187 -24, 152
-1, 109 - 1, 427 -16,766
-4, 279 -1,094 -22, 622
-4, 529 -1,395 -16,473
-905 - 1, 485 -19, 581
-4 - 1, 242 -16,758

Total

18, 388
6, 026
34, 241
10, 546
15, 670
7, 027
17,693
36, 518
51,218
36, 816
63, 748
33, 561
38, 946 -13, 757
15, 492
50, 261
24, 345
6,011
5,335 -1,295
7,509 -7,462
7,232
7,557
11, 651
7,686
23, 870
7,711
7, 140
5,503
12, 888 -2, 779
15; 056 -5, 847

1
Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), convertible currencies, and
the2 U.S. reserve position in the IMF.
Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.




Foreign
official
assets

Other
foreign
assets

12, 362
23, 696
8,643
18, 826
14, 403
30, 187
52, 703
34, 769
18, 334
6,630
14, 971
-326
3, 965
16, 158
1,637
15, 667
20, 903

Statis tical
discrej>ancy

U.S.
official
reserve
assets,
of
Tntnl
Of
net 1
special
which:
(sum
of
(unaddrawing
the
Seasonal justed,
rights
adjust- end of
items
(SDRs) with
sign ment
reversed) discrep- period)
ancy
Allocations

1, 139
1, 152
1, 152

1, 093

-2,654
-1, 620
5,753
10, 367
-2, 323
11, 398
21, 140
29, 640
-455 -3, 122
2,000
8,857
-206
6,073
1,355
18, 151
2,676 -3,291
2, 139
2,736
-340
10, 901
7,941
1,222
2,592
848

14, 378
15, 883
16, 226
18, 747
19, 312
18, 650
18, 956
26, 756
18, 557
18, 956
21, 491
21, 943
22, 994
26, 756
30,410
29, 582
29, 716

NOTE.—Data revised for first and second quarters of 1981.
Sources: Department 01 Commerce (Bureau 01 Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury.

37

Contents
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
Gross National Product
Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product
Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures
Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits
National Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Sources of Personal Income
Disposition of Personal Income
Farm Income
Corporate Profits
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment—Nonfarm Business

Page
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
Status of the Labor Force
Selected Unemployment Rates
Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Productivity and Related Data, Private Business Sector

11
12
13
14
15
15
16

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures
New Construction
New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates
Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

17
18
19
19
20
21

PRICES
Producer Prices
Consumer Prices
Changes in Producer Prices
Changes in Consumer Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers

22
23
24
24
25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets
Components of Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets
Consumer Installment Credit
Bank Loans and I nvestments, and Reserves
Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business
Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations
Interest Rates and Bond Yields
Common Stock Prices and Yields

26
27
27
28
29
29
30
31

FEDERAL FINANCE
Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt
Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function
Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis

32
33
34

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries
U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports
U.S. International Transactions
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