Full text of Economic Indicators : December 1980
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96th Congress, 2d Session Economic Indicators DECEMBER 1980 m Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers The 1980 Supplement to Economic Indicators, which describes each series and gives annual data for years not shown in the monthly issues, is now available at $5.00 a copy from the Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing Office. UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1980 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec, 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) LLOYD BENTSEN, Texas, Chairman RICHARD BOLLING, Missouri, Vice Chairman SENATE WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) ABRAHAM RIBICOFF (Connecticut) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) GEORGE McGOVERN (South Dakota) PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland) JACOB K. JAVITS (New York) WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) JAMES A. McCLURE (Idaho) ROGER W. JEPSEN (Iowa) HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES HENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin) WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania) LEE H HAMILTON (Indiana) GILLIS W. LONG (Louisiana) PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland) CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio) MARGARET M. HECKLER (Massachusetts) JOHN H. ROUSSELOT (California) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) JOHN M. ALBERTINE, Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS CHARLES L. SCHULTZE, Chairman GEORGE C. EADS STEPHEN M. GOLDFELD § [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—1st SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION fSJ. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23,1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.00 a single copy or by subscription at $17.00 per year ($21.25 for foreigp mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, B.C. 20402 ii TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING bROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to current estimates for the third quarter, gross national product rose $65.2 billion or 10.8 percent, both at annual rates. Real output (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 0.9 percent from the second quarter level and the implicit price deflator rose at a 9.8 percent annual rate. (See note below.) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 2,600 2,600 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 2,400 2,400 2,200 2,200 2,000 2,000 GNP IN CURRENT DOLLARS 1,800 1,800 v 1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 GNP IN 1972 DOLLARS 1,000 1,000 1972 1974 1975 1977 1976 1978 1979 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1980 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic inventment Government purchases of goods and services Exports and imports of goods and services Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total Total National defense Nondefense State and local Final sales 935. 5 579. 7 982. 4 618. 8 1, 063. 4 668. 2 1, 171. 1 733. 0 1, 306. 6 809. 9 1, 412. 9 889. 6 1, 528. 8 979. 1 1, 702. 2 1 089. 9 1, 899. 5 1, 210. 0 2, 127. 6 1, 350. 8 2, 368. 8 1, 509. 8 146. 2 140. 8 160. 0 188. 3 220. 0 214. 6 190. 9 243. 0 303. 3 351. 5 387. 2 1. 8 3. 9 1. 6 — 3. 3 7. 1 6. 0 20. 4 8. 0 — 9. 9 — 10. 3 —4. 6 54. 7 62. 5 65. 6 72. 7 101. 6 137. 9 147. 3 163. 3 175. 9 207. 2 257. 5 52 9 58. 5 64. 0 75 9 94. 4 131 9 126. 9 155 4 185. 8 217. 5 262. 1 207. 9 218. 9 233. 7 253 1 269.5 302 7 338. 4 361. 3 396. 2 435. 6 476. 4 97 5 95. 6 96. 2 102 1 102. 2 111 1 123. 1 129 7 144 4 152. 6 166. 6 76. 3 73. 5 70. 2 73. 5 73. 5 77. 0 83. 7 86. 4 93. 7 99. 0 108. 3 21.2 22. 1 26. 0 28. 6 28. 7 34. 1 39.4 43. 3 50. 6 53. 6 58.4 110. 4 123.2 137.5 151. 0 167. 3 191. 5 215.4 231. 6 251. 8 283. 0 309. 8 926. 2 978.6 , 057. 1 , 161. 7 , 288. 6 , 404. 0 , 539. 6 , 692. 1 1, 877. 6 2, 105. 2 2, 350. 6 1979:1 2, 292. 1 1, 454. 2 II-.. 2, 329. 8 1, 475. 9 III.. 2, 396. 5 1, 528. 6 IV... 2,456.9 1, 580. 4 373.8 395.4 392.3 387.2 4.0 -8. 1 -2.3 -11.9 238.5 243.7 267.3 280.4 234.4 251.9 269.5 292.4 460.1 466.6 477.8 501.2 163.6 161.7 162.9 178.4 103. 4 106.0 109.0 114.6 60.2 55. 7 53.9 63.8 296. 5 304.9 314.9 322.8 2, 272. 9 2, 296. 4 2, 381. 9 2, 451. 4 387.7 368.5 348.4 -13.6 -2.2 21.3 308. 1 307.0 313.2 321.7 309.2 291.9 517.2 528.3 533.6 186.2 193.3 191. 4 119.6 124. 1 129. 1 66.6 69.2 62.3 331.0 335. 0 342.2 2, 516. 1 2, 509. 9 2, 603. 3 1969 1970.. 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975_. 1976 1977 1978 1979 0 80: I 2, 520. 8 1, 629. 5 II— .2, 521. 3 1, 626. 6 III*. 2, 586. 5 1, 683. 3 NOTE.—Benchmark revisions will appear in the January 1981 issue of Economic Indicators. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS (Billions of 1972 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross private domestic Exports of goods investment and services Personal conGross Change national sumpNonResi- in busition product NA* JL>(Cli resiExports Imports dential ness in- exports expend- dential ventofixed itures fixed ries Period 1, 078. 8 1, 075. 3 1, 107. 5 1, 171. 1 1, 235. 0 1,217. 8 1, 202. 3 1, 273. 0 1, 340. 5 1, 399. 2 1, 431. 6 655.4 668.9 691. 9 733.0 767.7 760. 7 774. 6 820.6 861.7 900. 8 924.5 114. 3 110. 0 108. 0 116. 8 131. 0 130. 6 113. 6 119. 0 129. 3 140. 1 148. 8 43.2 40.4 52.2 62.0 59.7 45.0 38.8 47.8 57.7 60. 1 56. 7 1979: I—. 1, 430. 6 II— 1, 422. 3 III- 1, 433. 3 IV- 1, 440. 3 921.8 915.0 925.9 935.4 147.2 146.9 150.7 150.5 57.7 56.7 56.5 55.8 1, 444. 7 1980:1 II___ 1, 408. 6 m>_ 1,411.7 936.5 910.8 921.9 151.2 145.3 143.5 51.7 40.7 42. 2 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977-- — -_ 1978 1979 Government purchases of goods and services Total Federal State and local Final sales 9.4 -3. 3 8.0 15.9 22.6 15.8 10.3 11.0 17.6 62.2 67.1 67.9 72.7 87.4 93.0 90.0 96. 1 98.4 108.9 119.9 12.3 18.1 7. 1 17.0 13.2 20. 1 20. 1 117.0 116.0 122. 2 124.3 100.0 102. 9 102. 1 104. 1 274.7 272.4 273. 1 277. 1 101. 1 98. 1 97.4 101. 1 173.6 174.3 175.6 176.0 1, 418. 4 1, 404. 1 1, 426. 2 1, 439. 0 .3 2.6 25.0 28.3 32.2 131.7 128.3 127.6 106.7 99.9 95.4 280.0 280.9 278.0 104.3 106.7 103.9 175.7 174.3 174. 1 1, 444. 4 1, 406. 0 1, 417. 8 -1.3 10.6 1.4 -.6 4.3 6. 6 16.5 7.6 -9.8 6.6 13. 1 14. 1 9.7 1.4 -6.2 63.5 65.7 68.5 75.9 79.9 77. 1 67.5 80.4 88.2 97. 9 102.3 256.7 250.2 249.4 253. 1 252.5 257.7 262.6 263.3 268.5 273.2 274.3 121. 8 110.7 103.9 102. 1 96. 6 95. 8 96. 5 96.4 100. 6 98. 6 99.4 134. 9 139. 5 145. 5 151. 0 155.9 161. 8 166. 1 166. 9 167. 9 174. 6 174. 9 1, 068. 2 1, 071. 0 1, 100. 9 1, 161. 7 1, 218. 5 1, 209. 9 1, 212. 1 1, 266. 4 1, 327. 4 1, 385. 1 1, 421. 9 IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1972=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Gross national product Period Personal consumption expenditures Total Gross private domestic investment Exports and imports of goods and services Government purchases of goods and services Nonres- ResiNonDurable durable Services idential dential Exports Imports Federal goods goods fixed fixed State and local 86.72 91.36 96.02 100. 00 105. 80 116. 02 127. 15 133. 71 141. 70 152. 05 165. 46 88.5 92.5 96.6 100.0 105. 5 116.9 126. 4 132.8 140.4 150.0 163.3 93. 1 95.5 99.0 100.0 101. 6 108.4 117.7 124.3 129. 4 136. 5 144. 8 89. 4 93.6 96.6 100. 0 107.9 123.8 133.4 138. 1 144.7 154.6 171. 0 86. 1 90.5 95.8 100.0 104.7 113. 6 123.2 131.2 140.7 150.9 163.4 86.6 91.3 96.4 100.0 103.8 115.3 132.2 138.5 146. 6 157.8 171.3 87.7 90.6 94.9 100.0 110.8 122.3 132.8 142.5 159.3 179.7 201.4 87.9 93. 1 96.6 100.0 116.2 148.3 163.6 169.9 178.7 190.3 214.8 83.3 89. 1 93.5 100. 0 118.2 171.0 188.0 193.3 210.7 222. 1 256.2 80.0 86.4 92.6 100.0 105.8 115.9 127.5 134.6 143.6 154.8 167.6 81.9 88.3 94.5 100.0 107.3 118.4 129.7 138.8 150.0 162. 1 177. 1 . 160. 22 163. 81 167. 20 170. 58 157.8 161.3 165. 1 169.0 142.4 144. 1 145.3 147.4 164. 1 168.9 173.2 177.6 158.0 161.0 165.3 169.2 165.4 169.6 173.8 176.2 192.6 199.2 205. 5 208.7 203.9 210. 1 218.7 225.7 234.5 244.9 264.0 280.8 161.9 164.8 167.2 176.4 170.8 174.9 179.3 183.5 1980: I _ . .— II III* 174. 48 178. 99 183. 23 174.0 178.6 182.6 151.5 153. 6 156.9 184. 1 188. 1 191.8 173.3 178.3 183.0 180.3 184.6 188.8 213.4 218.8 223.3 234.0 239.4 245.4 301.5 309.5 306.0 178.5 181.2 184.2 188.4 192.3 196.6 1969 19701971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 — 1978 1979 — 1979: I— II__ III IV NOTE.—Benchmark revisions will appear in the January 1981 issue of Economic Indicators. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross national p>roduct Period 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 ^ 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 . 1979:1 II III. IV Constant (1972) dollars Current dollars 9.1 7.7 5.0 8.2 10.1 11. 6 8. 1 8.2 11.3 11,6 12.0 11.3 10.6 6. 7 11.9 10.5 10.8 .1 10. 8 . 1980: 1 II . III » 4.4 2.6 -.3 3.0 5.7 5.5 — 1.4 -1.3 5.9 5.3 4.4 2.3 1. 1 -2.3 3. 1 2.0 1.2 — 9. 6 .9 Implicit price deflator Chain price index 4.5 5.0 5.4 5. 1 4.1 5.8 9.7 9.6 5.2 6.0 7.3 8.8 9.3 9.3 8.5 8.4 9.5 10.7 9.8 NOTE.—Annual changes from previous year and quarterly changes from previous quarter. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Gross <iomestic iproduct Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) 4.4 5.0 5.3 5.0 4.1 6.0 9.9 9.4 5.6 6.3 7.4 8.9 9.7 8.8 8.9 8.5 9.6 9. 1 9. 8 4.3 5.0 5.2 4.9 4.0 6.0 10.2 9.3 5.6 6.4 7.5 9.3 9.9 9.5 10.0 9.4 10.9 9.7 9.5 Current dollars 9.1 7.8 5.0 8. 1 10.1 11.5 7.9 8.5 11.2 11.5 12.0 11.2 10. 1 6.9 11.5 10.7 10.5 — .1 10.9 Constant (1972) dollars 4.4 2.6 -.3 2.8 5.8 5.4 -1.3 -1.1 5.7 5.3 4.4 2.3 .9 -2. 1 3.2 2.4 1.4 — 9. 7 .8 Implicit price deflator 4.5 5. 1 5.3 5. 1 4.1 5. 7 9.3 9.7 5. 1 5.9 7.3 8.7 9. 1 9.2 8.0 8. 1 9.0 10. 7 10. 0 Chain price index Fixedweighted price index (1972 weights) 4.4 5.0 5.3 5.0 4. 1 5.9 9.6 9.4 5.6 6.2 7.4 8.8 9.6 8. 7 8.4 8. 1 9.2 9. 1 9. 8 4. 4 5. 0 5.2 4. 9 4. 0 5. 9 9. 9 9. 3 5. 6 6. 4 7. 5 9. 3 9.9 9. 4 9. 6 9. 1 10.6 9. 7 9. 5 Benchmark revisions wiE appear in the January 1981 issue of Economic Indicators. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS Period Gross domestic product of n on financial corporate business (billions of dollars) Current dollars 1972 dollars 498.4 1968 541.8 1969 560.6 1970 602.5 1971 671.0 1972 752.0 1973. 808.8 1974 874.1 1975 988.0 1976 1, 106. 3 1977 1,246.9 1978 . 1979— _„ 1, 387. 7 1, 346. 4 1979: I II.— 1, 370. 4 III... 1, 401. 3 1, 432. 9 IV 1980: I .— 1, 470. 1 II... 1,467.4 III*_ 1, 503. 5 581.6 607.3 600.6 619.3 671.0 720.4 695. 0 680.0 730.4 770.7 818.7 844.1 846.6 841.0 842. 4 846.3 848.0 822.5 823.7 [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Current-dollar cost and profit per -unit of output (dollars) } Total cost and profit 2 0.857 .892 .933 .973 1.000 1.044 1.164 1.285 1.353 1.436 1.523 1.644 1.590 1.629 1.664 1.693 1. 734 1.784 1.825 Capital consumption ComallowpenNet ances Indirect sation business of inwith 3 employ- terest capital taxes ees consumption adjustment 0.553 0.089 0.074 .094 .589 .079 .628 . 103 .088 .094 . 110 .645 .661 . 110 .093 . 112 .095 .699 . 123 .796 .116 .848 . 142 . 136 .890 .137 . 146 .951 . 140 .151 1.020 . 155 .143 . 150 1.115 .167 . 145 1.075 .158 . 165 . 148 1. 104 . 151 .170 1. 127 . 154 1. 152 . 175 . 159 1. 182 . 179 1.220 . 190 . 173 .182 1.234 . 196 * Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate lousiness in 1972 dollars. 2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfmaneial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. 3 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. 0.017 .022 .028 .029 .028 .032 .043 .045 .042 .043 .048 .056 .052 .054 .057 .060 .064 .068 .072 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Total Profits tax liability 0. 124 0.058 .055 . 109 .086 . 045 .095 .048 . 107 .050 .105 .055 .086 .061 . 113 .060 .072 . 138 . 151 .077 . 157 .084 .089 .157 . 161 .088 . 159 .085 .091 . 157 .092 .153 .148 .098 . 133 .071 .082 . 142 Profits after4 tax 0.066 .055 .041 .046 .057 .050 .024 .053 .066 .074 .073 .068 .072 .074 .066 .061 .051 .062 .060 Com• Output penper sation hour per of all hour employ- of all ees employ(1972 ees dollars) (dollars) 7.110 7. 137 7. 139 7.377 7.608 7.767 7.480 7.720 7.967 8.052 8. 122 8.088 8. 125 8.071 8.065 8.056 8.055 8.017 8. 110 3.931 4.197 4.482 4.758 5.032 5.431 5.951 6.549 7.092 7.654 8.281 9. 014 8.734 8.909 9.093 9.279 9.524 9.778 10. 005 * With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. NOTE.—Benchmark revisions will appear in the January 1981 issue of Economic Indicators. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] National income Period Compensation of employees1 Proprietors1 income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Farm Nonfarm Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Profits with inventory valuation adjustment and without capital consumption adjustment Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment Total Total Capital Net coninterest sumption adjustment 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978. 1979 767.9 798.4 858.1 951.9 1, 064. 6 1, 136. 0 1, 215. 0 1, 359. 8 1, 525. 8 1, 724. 3 1, 924. 8 571.4 609.2 650.3 715. 1 799.2 875.8 931.1 1, 037. 8 1, 156. 9 1, 304. 5 1, 459. 2 13.9 13.9 14.3 18.0 32.0 25.4 23.5 18.3 19.6 27.7 32.8 52.3 51.2 53.4 58. 1 60.4 60.9 63.5 71.0 80.5 89. 1 98.0 18.1 18.6 20. 1 21.5 21.6 21.4 22.4 22. 1 24.7 25.9 26.9 81.4 67.9 77.2 92.1 99. 1 83.6 95.9 126.8 150.0 167.7 178.2 77.9 66.4 76.9 89.6 97.2 86.5 107.9 141.3 162.0 180.8 1949 83.4 71.5 82.0 96.2 115. 8 126.9 120.4 156.0 177. 1 206.0 236.6 -5.5 -5. 1 -5.0 -6.6 -18.6 -40. 4 -12.4 -14.6 15. 2 -25.2 -41.8 3.5 1.5 .3 2.5 1.9 -2.9 -12.0 — 14. 5 -12.0 -13. 1 -16.7 30.8 37.5 42.8 47.0 52.3 69.0 78.6 83.8 94.0 109.5 129.7 1979: 1 II... III IV 1, 869. 0 1, 897. 9 1, 941. 9 1, 990. 4 1, 411. 2 1, 439. 7 1, 472. 8 1, 513. 2 34.2 33.7 30.9 32.5 94.8 95.5 99.4 102. 1 27.3 26.8 26.6 27.0 178.9 176.6 180.8 176.4 193.3 191.3 198.3 196.5 233. 3 227.9 242.3 243.0 -39.9 -36.6 -44. 0 -46.5 -14.5 -14.7 -17.6 -20. 1 122. 6 125.6 131.5 139.2 1980: 1 II 2, 035. 4 1, 555. 2 2, 024 6 1, 567. 2 2, 068. 6 1, 591. 5 27.7 23. 1 24. 1 102. 3 97.4 101.5 27.0 27.3 27.8 175.0 152.8 158. 3 197. 2 177.4 186.6 260.4 204.8 222.4 -63.2 -27.4 -35.9 -22.2 -24.6 -28.2 148.1 156.8 165.3 III 9 * Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) NOTE.—Benchmark revisions will appear in the January 1981 issue of Economic Indicators. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Durable goods Nondurable goods Total personal consumption expenditures Total durablel goods Motor vehicles and parts 579.7 618.8 668.2 733.0 809.9 889.6 979. 1 1, 089. 9 1, 210. 0 1, 350. 8 1, 509. 8 85.5 849 97.1 111.2 123.7 122.0 132.6 157.4 178.8 200.3 213.0 1, 454 2 1, 475. 9 1, 528. 6 1, 580. 4 213.8 208.7 213.4 216.2 37.7 349 43.8 50.6 55.2 48.0 53.4 70.0 81. 6 91.2 91.5 97.7 89. 1 89.8 89.4 Furniture and household equipment 35.0 36.7 39.4 448 50.7 549 58.0 64.0 70.9 77.6 85.6 82. 1 84.2 87.3 88.9 1980: I 1, 629. 5 II 1, 626. 6 I I I * _ _ 1, 683. 3 220.2 195.7 208.5 92.9 71.8 79.7 88.2 86.0 89.9 Period 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 ... _ 1979 -1979: I II III .... IV .... 1 Total nondurablel goods Services Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil 45. 1 46.6 50.5 55. 1 61.3 65.3 70.1 75.9 82.4 91.2 99.2 247.2 269. 1 293.4 322. 4 352.3 391.3 437.5 488.5 549.8 619.8 699.8 669.3 686.0 710.6 733.5 8.5 7.1 8.7 9.3 9.7 7.5 7. 1 8.6 9.1 9.3 8.3 9.3 8.0 8. 6 7.5 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.5 2. 1 2.0 2.3 2.3 2. 5 2.2 2.4 757.3 776.9 808.9 7.9 5.5 6. 5 2.8 2.2 2.2 247.0 2647 277.7 299.3 333.8 376.3 408.9 443.9 481.3 530.6 596.9 571. 1 581. 2 6047 630.7 126. 1 136.3 140.6 150.4 168. 1 189.8 209.6 227. 1 246.7 271. 7 302.0 292.9 296.7 303. 1 315.6 95.5 96.9 101.0 103.6 20.4 22.0 23.4 249 27.8 36.4 39.5 42.9 46. 7 50.9 65. 1 58.4 60.2 68.3 73.4 652.0 654 1 665.8 322.6 325.8 334.9 103.9 104. 1 107.3 83.6 83.6 79.2 Total includes other items not shown separately. NOTE.—Benchmark revisions will appear in the January 1981 issue of Economic Indicators. Food Retail sales of new passenger cars (millions of units) Domestics Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Imports SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $23.4 billion (annual rate) in October, following a rise of $23.5 billion in September. Wages and salaries were up $18.5 billion in October/ of this very large increase, about $5.2 billion was due to a pay raise for Federal government employees and about $1.6 billion was due to a retroactive pay increase to communication workers. Excluding these special factors, wages and salaries were up $11.7 billion in October, compared with an increase of $12.8 billion in September. (See note below.) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 2,400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 2,400 2,000 1,800 1,60) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 600 „.„..««""" OTHER INCOME 400 400 TRANSFER PAYMENTS 200 200 160 160 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 I I I i i II i i i i i i i 1972 1973 60 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period 1980 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Wage Rental Transfer and Other Proprietors' income s income Total Divi- Personal pay- 5 interest personal salary labor 1 2 dends income ments of income disburseincome Nonfarm Farm persons * ments l 1972 942.5 633.8 1973 1, 052. 4 701.3 7646 1974 1, 154. 9 1975 ._ .. _ 1, 255. 5 805.9 890.0 1976 1, 381. 6 1977 1, 531. 6 984.0 1978 . 1, 717. 4 1, 103. 3 1, 924. 2 1, 227. 6 1979 1979: Oct.... 1, 981. 2 1, 257. 4 Nov 2, 005. 5 1, 271. 3 Dec 2, 028. 3 1, 282. 9 1980: Jan.- . 2, 046. 5 1, 293. 0 Feb 2, 055. 7 1, 304. 2 Mar 2, 070. 0 1, 314. 0 2, 072. 0 1, 309. 0 Apr 2, 079. 0 1, 309. 7 May June 2, 090. 4 1, 312. 5 July.... 2, 124. 2 1, 314 9 2, 143. 0 1, 329. 9 Aug Sept*... 2, 166. 5 1, 342. 7 Oct * 2, 189. 9 1, 361. 2 42.0 48.7 55.6 65. 1 77.4 91.8 106.5 122.7 128.0 129.6 131.2 132.8 134.4 136.0 137.4 138.7 139.9 141.0 142.2 143.4 144.6 iao 32.0 25.4 23.5 18.3 19.6 27.7 32.8 31.0 33.0 33.4 31.3 27.9 24.0 23.2 22.8 23.4 24.3 24 1 23.8 23.9 21.5 21.6 21.4 22.4 22. 1 247 25.9 26.9 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.2 26.6 27.2 27.4 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.2 58. 1 60.4 60.9 63. 5 71.0 80.5 89.1 98.0 101.1 102. 1 103.0 103.9 102.3 100.8 98.9 96.7 96.5 99.3 101.0 104.2 105. 1 * The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. * Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workmen's compensation; directors' fees and a few other minor items. 1 4 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. With capital consumption adjustment. 1979 246 27.8 31.0 31.9 37.5 42.1 47.2 52.7 53.6 542 55.2 55.8 56.6 57.5 58.1 58.5 59.2 59.3 59.8 59.9 60.2 746 841 103.0 115. 5 127.0 141.7 163,3 192. 1 200.7 205. 4 210.3 214 1 217.2 220.3 225.1 229. 1 232.2 2345 236.2 238.5 241.2 104 1 118.9 140.8 178.2 193.8 208. 4 224 1 252.0 2648 265.9 268.8 275.0 273.5 276.1 278.0 283.2 286.2 311.0 310.5 315. 1 315. 7 Less: PerNonsonal confarm tributions personal for social income 6 insurance 342 42.2 47.7 50.5 55.6 61.3 69.6 80.7 82.2 83.0 83.6 86.7 87.1 85.9 85.1 86.8 87.0 87.5 88.5 89. 1 90.2 917.3 1,011.9 1, 119. 3 1, 220. 8 1, 350. 6 1, 498. 1 1, 674 2 1, 873. 4 1, 931. 8 1, 953. 9 1, 976. 1 1, 995. 9 2, 008. 3 2, 026. 2 2, 028. 8 2, 036. 0 2, 046. 6 2, 079. 5 2, 098. 1 2, 121. 6 2, 144 7 «Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. NOTE.—Benchmark revisions will appear in the January 1981 issue of Economic Indicators. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. g 8 DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME per capita disposable income rose In the third quarter. (See note below.) ' BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 2,000 3,000 3,000 1980 1972 * SEASONALLY .ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period •Less: Personal Pertax sonal and income nontax payments Equals : Disposable personal income COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Less: Personal outlays l Per capita disposable personal income Equals : Personal saving Current dollars Billions of dollars 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977. 1978 1979. 859. 1 116.3 942.5 141.2 1, 052. 4 150.8 1, 154. 9 170.3 1, 255. 5 168.8 1, 381. 6 197.1 ... 1, 531. 6 226.4 1, 717. 4 259.0 - 1, 924 2 299.9 1972 dollars Per capita personal consumption expenditures Current dollars 1972 dollars Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income i Saving as percent of Population dispos(thouable sands) * personal income Dollars 685.5 742.8 801.3 751.9 831.3 901.7 984.6 913.0 1, 086. 7 1, 003. 0 1, 184. 5 1, 115. 9 1, 305. 1 1, 240. 2 1, 458. 4 1, 386. 4 1, 624. 3 1, 550. 5 57.3 49.4 70.3 71.7 83.6 68.6 65.0 72.0 7& 8 3,588 3,837 4,285 4,646 5,088 5,504 6,017 6,672 7,367 3,714 3,837 4,062 3,973 4,025 4,144 4,285 4,449 4,512 3,227 3,510 3,849 4, 197 4,584 5,064 5,579 6,179 6,848 3,342 3,510 3,648 3,589 3,627 3,813 3,973 4,121 4,193 2.6 3.3 5.9 -2.2 1.3 3.0 3.4 3.8 1.4 7.7 6.2 7.8 7.3 7.7 5.8 5.0 4.9 4.5 207, 053 208, 846 210, 410 211,945 213,566 215,203 216,898 218, 594 220, 464 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1979: !.._. 1, 852. 6 280.4 IL__ 1, 892. 5 290.7 III... 1, 946. 6 306.6 IV... 2, 005. 0 321.9 1, 572. 2 1, 493. 0 1, 601. 7 1, 515. 8 1, 640. 0 1, 569. 7 1, 683. 1 1, 623. 4 1980: L.__ 2, 057. 4 320.0 1, 737. 4 1, 672. 9 II.... 2, 080. 5 324.6 1, 755. 9 1, 669. 5 III»_ 2, 144. 6 334.0 1, 810. 7 1, 725. 7 79.2 85.9 70.3 59.7 7,157 7,275 7,430 7,606 4,536 4,510 4,501 4,502 6,619 6,704 6,926 7,142 4, 196 4,156 4, 195 4,227 1.2 -2.3 -.8 .1 5.0 5.4 4.3 3.5 219, 220, 220, 221, 64.4 86. 3 84. 9 7,834 7,900 8,121 4,502 4,423 4,448 7,348 7, 318 7,550 4,223 4,098 4,135 0 -6.8 2.3 3.7 4.9 4.7 221, 768 222, 277 222, 948 690 166 715 285 l Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to NOTE.—Benchmark revisions will appear in the January 1981 issue of Economic business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net). Indicators. ! Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are for July l through 1973 and are averages of quarterly data beginning 1974. Quarterly data are average for the Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau penod. of the Census). 6 FARM INCOME In the third quarter, gross farm income rose $2.8 billion (annual rate) while net farm income was virtually unchanged from its second quarter level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) H200 100 100 GROSS FARM INCOME 80 80 60 60 40 40 NET FARM INCOME 20 20 10 10 1973 1974 1975 1976 1978 1977 1979 1980 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 1981 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from, farming Gross farm income Period Net farm income Cash marketing receipts Total l Total Livestock and products Crops Value of inventory2 changes Production expenses Current dollars 1967 dollars 3 1972 1973-_. 1974.. 1975 19761977 1978 1979 71.0 98.9 98.3 100.3 101.8 108. 1 126.9 149.6 61.2 87. 1 92. 4 88. 2 94. 8 95.8 112.5 131. 5 35.7 45.9 41.4 43.0 46. 1 47. 4 59.0 68.6 25. 5 41. 1 51. 1 45. 1 48.7 48.3 53.5 62.8 0. 9 3.4 -1.6 3.4 -2. 4 .6 .4 4. 1 52. 3 65.6 72.2 . 75.9 83. 1 90.3 100.8 118.6 18.7 33.3 26. 1 24.5 18.7 17.8 26. 1 31.0 14. 9 25. 1 17.7 15.2 11. 0 9.8 13.3 14. 2 1979: I 145.5 149. 1 149.9 154. 1 128.9 130.9 130. 6 135.4 69.7 68.2 66.9 69.7 59.2 62.7 63. 7 65. 7 3.2 3.9 5. 4 3.9 114.2 116. 3 119. 6 124. 2 31.3 32.8 30.3 29.9 15. 1 15.3 13.7 13. 1 152. 0 152.4 155.2 135.9 134. 5 142.7 69. 1 63.4 70.9 66.8 71. 1 71.8 1. 0 2.0 -3.5 127.4 129.6 132.5 24.6 22.8 22.7 10. 4 9.3 9. 1 II_ III_ _ IV 1980: I . II III 1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. 70-735 0 - 8 0 - 2 3 Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index (Department of Labor). „ ^ _,. j. * . • ix *. *. * Source: Department of Agriculture, except as noted. CORPORATE PROFITS In the third quarter, according to current estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $17.6 billion (annual rate) while after-tax profits rose $10.1 billion. (See note below.) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 280 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 280 240 240 40 1972 1979 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1980 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment l Domestic industries Nonfinancial Period 1969 1970 1971 .. 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 -_ 1977 1978 -1979 1979:1 -II III IV 1980: I II III »_ Total 2 __ 77.9 66.4 76.9 89.6 97.2 86.5 107.9 141.3 162.0 180.8 194.9 193.3 191.3 198.3 196.5 197. 2 177.4 186.6 Total 74. 2 62.6 72. 4 84.7 90.4 76.9 101. 8 133. 1 152. 1 170.6 181.6 181.4 179.6 182. 5 183.0 181.1 164. 1 173.8 Financial 11. 3 12.6 14. 1 15.4 16.2 14.4 13.0 17.8 23.8 29.7 33.2 31.9 32.0 33.8 35.0 34.7 31.6 30.9 Total1 Manufacturing Wholesale and retail trade 62.9 50. 1 58.2 69.3 74. 1 62.5 88.9 115.3 128. 3 140.9 148.5 149.6 147.7 148.7 148. 0 146. 5 132.6 142.9 36.8 27. 1 32.4 40.6 44. 1 36.6 48.3 65.7 73.5 81.7 88.8 94. 1 90.6 86.4 84.0 93.0 73.4 10. 1 9.4 11.7 13. 3 14.7 12.9 20.7 23.3 24. 1 23.0 23.7 18.6 22.4 26.5 27.1 16.5 21.7 * See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. * Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. > Includes industries not shown separately. 8 Profits after tax Profits before tax Tax liability Total 83.4 71.5 82.0 96.2 115.8 126.9 120.4 156. 0 177. 1 206.0 236.6 233. 3 227.9 242.3 243.0 260. 4 204. 8 222.4 39.7 34. 5 37.7 41.5 48.7 52. 4 49.8 63.8 72.6 84.5 92.5 91.3 88.7 94.0 96. 1 102.4 77.6 85.2 43.8 37.0 44.3 54.6 67. 1 74.5 70.6 92.2 104. 5 121.5 144.1 142.0 139.3 148.3 146.9 158.0 127. 1 137.2 Dividends 22. 6 22.9 23.0 24.6 27.8 31.0 31.9 37.5 42. 1 47.2 52.7 51.5 52.3 52. 8 54.4 56.7 58.6 59. 7 Undistributed profits 21.2 14. 1 21.3 30.0 39.3 43.6 38.7 54. 7 62.4 74.3 91.4 90.5 87.0 95.5 92.5 101.3 68.5 77.6 Inventory valuation adjustment -5.5 — 5. 1 -5.0 -6.6 — 18.6 -40.4 -12.4 -14.6 -15.2 -25.2 -41.8 -39.9 -36.6 -44.0 -46.5 -63.2 -27.4 -35.9 NOTE.—Benchmark revisions will appear in the January 1981 issue of Economi Indicators. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to current estimates for the third quarter, business fixed investment rose $2.7 billion (annual rate) as nonresidential construction outlays fell $1.7 billion and producers' durable equipment purchases rose $4.4 billion. Residential investment outlays rose $5.3 billion. There was a $16.8 billion reduction of inventories following an $11.4 billion increase in the second quarter. (See note below.) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 450 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 450 400 350 300, 250 200 100 50 -50 -50 1980 1972 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nonresidential fixed investment Period 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978. 1979 1979: !__... II. Ill IV 1980: I II.. Hip Gross private domestic investment . . 146. 2 140.8 160.0 188.3 220.0 214. 6 190.9 243. 0 303.3 351.5 387.2 373.8 395.4 392.3 387.2 387.7 368.5 348. 4 Structures Total 98.9 100. 5 104. 1 116.8 136. 0 150.6 150.2 164.9 189.4 221. 1 254.9 243.4 249. 1 261.8 265.2 272.6 268.2 270.9 Producers' durable equipment Total Nonfarm Total Nonfarm 35.7 37.7 39.3 42.5 49.0 54.5 53.8 57.3 62.6 76.5 92.6 849 90.5 95.0 100.2 103.3 103.7 102. 0 34.3 36. 1 37.8 41. 1 46.9 51. 8 51.3 54.7 59.8 73.3 88.9 81.2 86.8 91. 4 96.3 99.6 100.0 98. 3 63.3 62.8 64.7 74.3 87.0 96.2 96.4 107.6 126.8 144.6 162.2 158.5 158.6 166.7 165. 1 169.4 164.5 168.9 58.9 58. 1 59.9 69. 1 80. 1 88.2 87.4 97. 4 116.3 132.6 147.8 146. 1 144.5 150.0 150.4 155.9 151.3 155.4 Nor E.—Benchmark revisions will appear in the January 1981 issue of Economic indicators. Residential fixed investment Total 37.9 36.6 49.6 62.0 66. 1 55. 1 51.5 68. 1 91.9 108.0 114. 1 111.2 112.9 116.0 116.4 110.4 88.9 94.2 Nonfarm structures 36.3 35. 1 47.9 60.3 64. 3 52.7 49.5 65.7 88.8 1044 110.2 107.8 109. 1 112.0 112.1 105.9 85.3 90.8 Farm structures Producers1 durable equipment 0.7 .6 .7 .7 .6 1.2 .9 1.1 1. 5 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.3 1.8 1.6 0.9 .9 1.0 1. 1 1.2 1.2 1. 1 1.3 1. 6 1. 9 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.9 Change in business inventories Total Nonfarm 9.4 3.8 6.4 9.4 17.9 8. 9 -10.7 10.0 21.9 22.3 18.2 19. 1 33.4 145 5.6 47 11.4 -16.8 9.2 3.7 5.1 8.8 147 10.8 -14.3 12.1 20. 7 21.3 16. 5 18.8 32.6 12.6 2.1 4.4 12.3 -10.7 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 9 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT—NONFARM BUSINESS Nonfarm business spending for new plant and equipment for the year 1980 is expected to be 8.8 percent above 1979, according to the Commerce Department October-November survey. The revised and expanded series also shows that spending is expected to increase 5.3 percent in the first quarter of 1981 and 4.3 percent in the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS _OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 500 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 400 400 300 300 200 200 TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT 100 100 80 80 MANUFACTURING 60 60 """*..„„,.., 40 40 I 30 I I I 1973 I 1974 1 J 1 i 1975 J I L 1976 I I J 1977 I L 1978 J 1 I i 1979 i i 1980 j/ y i i 30 1981 J/ SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW. SOURCE! DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Plant and equipment Period Total Plant Manufacturing Equipment Total 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977-..1978 1979_4 _ _ 1980 ____ 1979: III.. IV_. 1980: I. __ II.. III.. IV 4 _ 1981: I «__ II 4 . 137. 70 156. 98 157. 71 171. 45 198. 08 231. 24 270. 46 294. 30 273. 15 284. 30 291. 89 294. 36 296. 23 294. 95 310. 59 323. 84 56.66 64.29 65.21 71.20 80.31 92.70 105. 73 81.04 92.69 92.50 100. 25 117. 77 138. 54 164. 73 108. 60 115. 96 116. 50 117. 59 175. 70 175. 93 177. 86 178. 64 42.37 53.21 54.92 59.95 69.22 79.72 98.68 114. 90 100. 11 106. 57 111; 77 115. 116. 115. 122. 130. 69 40 37 69 57 Durable goods Nondurable goods 22. 75 27.44 26.33 28.47 34.04 40.43 51.07 58.25 52.13 55.03 58.28 59.38 58. 19 57.42 60.23 65.36 19.62 25. 76 28. 59 31.47 35. 18 39.29 47.61 56.65 47.97 51.55 53.49 56. 32 58.21 57.96 62.46 65.21 1 Wholesale and retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and personal, business, and professional services. 2 "Other" consists of construction; social services and membership organizations; and forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services. 3 Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during given period. 10 Nonmanufacturing Trans- Public Total Mining porta- utilities tion 95.33 103. 78 102. 79 111. 50 128. 87 151. 52 171. 77 179. 40 173. 04 177. 73 180. 13 178. 66 179. 83 179. 58 187. 90 193. 27 3.31 4.62 6. 10 7.44 9.24 10.21 11.38 13.50 11.40 11.86 11.89 12.81 13.86 15.25 16. 07 18.02 7.41 8.23 8.68 8.89 9.40 10.68 12.35 11.98 12.67 13.20 12.47 12.09 12.23 11.25 11.50 11.60 17.97 19.83 19.98 22.37 26.79 29.95 33.96 34.62 35. 05 34.08 36.26 35.03 35.58 31.95 36.78 36.21 Trade and services * Communication and other 2 45.53 47.79 46.23 49.30 56. 54 68.66 79.26 82.28 78.86 82.69 82. 17 81.07 81. 19 84.87 84.09 87.43 21. 12 23.30 21.80 23.51 26.90 32.02 34.83 37.02 35.05 35.90 37.34 37.66 36.97 36.26 39.48 40.01 Starts of plant and equipment projects, manufacturing 3 53.21 61.24 56.51 59.38 77.40 88.16 112. 98 26.82 32.53 32.43 29.41 27.74 Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late October and November 1980, corrected for biases. NOTE.—Revised and expanded series; for details, see Survey of Current Business, October 1980. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE Seasonally adjusted employment rose 220,000 in November while unemployment fell 81,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 110 110 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 100 100 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE 90 90 EMPLOYMENT „,.,., UNEMPLOYMENT 1972 1973 1974 1976 1975 1977 1979 1978 *16 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Noninctitn Period 1974 1975 1976 . 1977 1978* 1979 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS n. [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted] Civilian employment Total labor N onagricultural tional employ- ploypopulament ment tion 150, 153 156, 158, 161, 163 827 449 048 559 058 620 85, 935 84 783 87 485 90, 546 94, 373 96 945 5,076 7 830 7, 288 6, 855 6,047 5 963 (including Armed Forces) 93, 240 94 793 96 917 99, 534 102, 537 104 996 labor force Total Agricultural Total 91, Oil 92 613 94 773 97 401 100, 420 102 908 85, 935 84, 783 87, 485 90, 546 94, 373 96, 945 3, 492 3, 380 3,297 3,244 3, 342 3, 297 82, 443 81, 403 84, 188 87, 302 91, 031 93, 648 1979: Nov_ 164, 682 Dec. 164, 898 97, 943 98, 047 5,776 105,744 103, 652 5,836 106, 088 103, 999 1980: Jan__ Feb._ Mar.. Apr__ May _ June. Julv_ Aug__ Sept.. Oct__ Nov.. 96, 145 96, 264 96, 546 96, 566 96. 709 97, 776 98, 587 98, 115 97, 256 97, 933 97, 801 7,043 6,993 6,805 6,846 7,318 8,291 8,410 8,011 7,464 7,482 7,486 106, 310 106, 346 106, 184 106,511 107, 230 106, 634 107, 302 107, 139 107, 155 107, 301 107, 439 104, 104, 104, 104, 105, 104, 105, 105, 105, 105, 105, 229 260 094 419 142 542 203 025 034 180 320 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find full-time work, etc. 2 Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over. *Data beginning 1978 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of Unemployment Part-tim* Total for economic reasons 1 2, 709 i 5, 076 3, 490 7,830 3, 272 7,288 3,297 6, 855 3,216 6,047 3, 281 5, 963 15 weeks and over Labor force participation rate (per-2 cent) 2,483 2,339 1,911 1,379 1,202 937 61. 8 61. 8 62. 1 62. 8 63. 7 64. 2 Seasonally adjusted Unadjusted 165, 101 165, 298 165, 506 165, 693 165, 886 166, 105 166, 391 166, 578 166, 789 167, 005 167, 201 1980 97, 608 97, 912 3, 385 3,359 94, 223 94, 553 3,392 3,519 6,044 6,087 1, 191 1,230 64.2 64.3 97, 804 97, 953 97, 656 97, 154 96, 988 96, 537 96, 996 97, 006 97, 207 97, 176 97, 396 3,270 3,326 3,358 3,242 3,379 3, 191 3,257 3, 180 3,442 3,324 3, 342 94, 534 94, 626 94, 298 93, 912 93, 609 93, 346 93, 739 93, 826 93, 765 93, 851 94, 054 3,513 3,406 3,418 3,816 4,349 3, 999 4, 113 4, 148 4,204 4,261 4, 168 6,425 6, 307 6,438 7,265 8,154 8,006 8, 207 8,019 7,827 8,005 7,924 1,334 1, 286 1,363 1,629 1,722 1,766 1,915 2, 184 2,326 2,318 2,308 64.4 64.3 64.2 64.3 64.6 64.2 64. 5 64.3 64.2 64.3 64.3 revisions in the household survey, which added about 250,000 to labor force and to employment. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In November the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell slightly to 7.5 percent from 7.6 percent in October. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 1976 1977 1978 1980 1979 * UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Period 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 _. 1979: Nov Dec .. 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Total (all civilian workers) Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) By selected groups By sex and age By race Men Women Both 20 20 sexes years years 16-19 and and over over years White 5.6 8.5 7.7 7.0 6.0 5.8 3.8 6.7 5.9 5.2 4.2 4.1 5.5 8.0 7.4 7.0 6.0 5.7 16.0 19.9 19.0 17.7 16.3 16.1 5.0 7.8 7.0 6.2 5.2 5. 1 5.8 5.9 4.3 4.2 5.6 5.7 15.9 16.0 5.1 5.1 10.9 11.3 5.5 5.5 3.8 3.7 6.2 6.0 6.2 7.0 7.8 7.7 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.6 7.5 4.7 4.6 4.9 5.9 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.4 6.3 5.8 5.7 5.7 6.3 6.6 6.5 6.7 6.5 6. 1 6.8 6.7 16.3 16.5 15.9 16.2 19.2 18.5 19.0 19. 1 17.5 18.4 18.7 5.4 5.3 5.4 6.2 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.5 6.7 6.6 11.8 11.5 11.8 12.6 13.9 13.6 14.2 13.6 14.2 14.3 14.0 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.7 7.6 7.4 7.5 7.4 7.2 7.4 7.2 4.2 4.0 4.3 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.2 i Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. 12 ExpeFullBlack rienced time wage Household and and heads workother salary ers workers 3.3 5.1 9.9 5.3 8.1 8.2 5.8 13.9 7.3 5. 1 7.3 13.1 6.5 4.5 13.1 6.6 5.5 5.6 3.7 11.9 5.4 5.3 3.6 11.3 Labor force time lost Part(per-! time work- cent) ers 8.6 10.3 10.1 9.8 9.0 8.7 6.1 9.1 8.3 7.6 6.5 6.3 5.4 5.4 8.3 8.5 6.4 6.4 5.7 5.6 5.8 6.6 7.5 7.4 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.3 8.7 8.9 8.3 8.9 9.3 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.6 9.4 8.6 6.7 6.6 6.8 7.5 8.8 8.3 8.5 8.3 8.2 8.4 8.3 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In November the percentage of unemployed persons who were job losers, job leavers, and new entrants rose, while the percentage who were reentrants fell. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT 60 60 40 40 REENTRANTS 20 - 15-26 WEEKS 20 NEW ENTRANTS v %4«*w^ JOB LEAVERS 27 WEEKS AND OVER 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Percent distribution of unemPercent distribution of unem- State programs Insured unem- Special ployment by reason 1 ployment by duration * unemployUnemployment, ployall ment Period Insured 27 ment Less regular benefit8 Job Reen- New Initial 5-14 unemweeks 15-26 (thou- Job enthan 5 pro- 2 claims ploy- claims grams sands) losers leavers trants trants weeks weeks weeks and (unadover ment (unad- justed) justed) Weekly average, thousands 1975 7,830 10.4 55.4 23.8 10.4 15.2 3,986 31.3 37.0 16.5 478 4,937 1,173 1976 7,288 12.2 26. 0 49. 8 12. 1 38.3 18.3 2,991 13.8 29. 6 386 1,152 3,846 1977 .. . 6,855 13.0 45.2 28. 1 13.7 41.7 30.5 14.8 2,655 13. 1 375 3,308 572 1978 6,047 14.1 30.0 41.5 14.3 46.2 31.0 10.5 2,359 346 12.3 2, 645 1979 5,963 42.8 14.3 29.5 13.4 48. 1 31.7 11.5 8.7 2,434 388 2,592 1979: Nov.. 6,044 14.1 28.3 45.4 12.3 48.8 8.9 2,643 31.3 11.0 405 2,559 Dec... 6,087 13.0 44.3 28.8 32.2 13.9 8.5 2,631 47.7 11.6 416 3,047 46.9 1980: Jan.__ 6,425 12.2 28.2 12.7 8.4 2,729 49.6 12.4 29.7 414 3,740 45.9 Feb... 6,307 12.8 28.2 13. 1 47.1 12.4 32.7 7.8 2, 685 389 3,730 Mar.. 6,438 47.3 12.2 28.0 33.2 9.0 2,857 12.5 45.9 11.9 455 3,652 Apr... 7,265 49.8 12.8 27.1 9.2 3,204 10.3 45. 1 32.6 574 3,629 13.0 May.. 8,154 52.5 12.1 24.6 10.8 46.7 12.2 8.5 3,717 32.5 642 3,680 June. _ 8,006 56.3 10.9 22.2 10.5 36.4 9.2 4,009 41.6 12.8 617 3,790 July.. 8,207 55.5 10.4 42.2 33.8 10.8 3,880 22.7 13.2 11.3 530 4,140 54.4 Aug.. 8,019 11.2 23.6 10.8 41.2 31.3 15.9 506 11.6 3,778 3,908 Sept.. 7,827 56.0 10.5 22.7 37.4 10.7 33. 1 17.7 11.8 3,802 494 3,961 Oet__. 8,005 52.7 10.8 25. 5 11.0 31.2 13.2 3,589 39.8 15.8 3,662 446 Nov_. 7,924 52.8 11.6 24.2 11.5 38.8 32.0 15.0 14.2 3,329 403 i Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding. * Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (EB) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include FSB (Federal supplemental benefits) and SU A (special unemployment assistance). a FSB and SUA. These programs started January 1975 and regular reporting began March 1975. Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 268,000 in November. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 90 80 ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 70 SERVICE-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 60 50 40 GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 30 ...,.2i*»« 20 MI l i i 1 1 1 I I I | 1 1 1 1 l h i i i i i 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 i 1 1 i 1 1 i 1 1 i i i i i 1 1 i 1 1 I i i i i 1976 1977 1979 1978 1980 1976 1977 1978 * SEASON ALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1979 1980 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers;1 seasonally adjusted] Service-producing industries Goods-producing industries Total nonagricultural employ- Total * ment xt Uonstruction 78, 265 76, 945 79, 382 82, 471 86, 697 89, 886 24, 794 22, 600 23, 352 24, 346 25, 585 26, 504 4, 020 3,525 3, 576 3, 851 4, 229 4,483 1979 : Nov. _ 90, 552 Dee... 90, 678 26, 504 26, 590 4,553 20, 966 12, 693 4,615 20, 983 12, 706 1980: Jan... Feb.__ Mar_. Apr___ May__ June.. July.. Aug_. Sept.. Oct *„ Nov *_ 26, 715 26, 623 26, 476 26, 121 25, 745 25, 422 25, 163 25, 312 25, 476 25, 613 25, 766 4,745 4,659 4,529 4,467 4,436 4,379 4,322 4,359 4,404 4,437 4,472 Period 1974. 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979. . 91, 031 91, 186 91, 144 90, 951 90, 468 90, 047 89, 867 90, 142 90, 384 90, 612 90, 880 Trans- Whole- Finance, Government insurportaonlA sale ance, Services tion and State Non- Total ATlrf and £kUU retail Federal and Total Durable durable real public trade goods goods local estate utilities Manufacturing 20, 077 18, 323 18, 997 19, 682 20, 505 21, 062 20, 971 20, 957 20, 938 20, 642 20, 286 20, 014 19, 828 19, 940 20, 044 20, 138 20, 243 11, 925 10, 688 11, 077 11, 597 12, 274 12, 772 12, 681 12, 715 12, 707 12, 442 12, 140 11, 947 11, 819 11,860 11, 955 12, 031 12, 100 8, 152 7,635 7,920 8,086 8, 231 8,290 4,725 4,542 4,582 4,713 4, 923 5, 141 16, 987 17, 060 17, 755 18, 516 19, 542 20, 269 4,148 4,165 4,271 4,467 4,724 4, 974 13, 441 13, 892 14, 551 15, 303 16, 252 17, 078 2,724 2,748 2, 733 2,727 2,753 2,773 11, 446 11, 937 12, 138 12, 399 12, 919 13, 147 8,273 64, 048 8,277 64, 088 5,216 20, 479 5,212 20, 448 5,049 17, 308 5,064 17, 362 2,773 2,773 13, 223 13, 229 8,290 8,242 8,231 8,200 8, 146 8,067 8,009 8,080 8,089 8, 107 8,143 5,202 5, 198 5, 202 5, 178 5, 167 5,134 5,114 5, 129 5,124 5,142 5,145 5,091 5,101 5, 115 5, 119 5, 137 5, 150 5,167 5, 180 5, 194 5,206 5,214 17, 462 17, 540 17, 580 17, 618 17, 659 17, 652 17, 760 17, 788 17, 861 17, 906 17, 981 2, 791 2,826 2,886 3, 115 2,960 2,951 2,893 2,828 2,765 2,770 2,776 13, 241 13, 261 13, 275 13, 269 13, 313 13, 279 13, 264 13, 316 13, 344 13, 338 13, 335 i Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they 14 53, 471 54, 345 56, 030 58, 125 61, 113 63, 382 64, 316 64, 563 64, 668 64, 830 64, 723 64, 625 64, 704 64, 830 64, 908 64, 999 65, 114 20, 529 20, 637 20, 610 20, 531 20, 487 20, 459 20, 506 20, 589 20, 620 20, 637 20, 663 are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments, a Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Average gross hourly earnings Average weekly hours Period Total private nonagricultural 1 Manufacturing Total Overtime 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 . 1978— 1979. 36.9 37.0 36.9 36.5 36. 1 36.1 36.0 35.8 35.6 39.9 40.5 40.7 40.0 39.5 40.1 40.3 40.4 40.2 2.9 3.5 3.8 3.3 2.6 3. 1 3.5 3.6 3.3 1979: Nov Dec 35.6 35.7 40.1 40.2 3.3 3.2 1980: Jan Feb ., Mar . .Apr Mav - -June July 35.6 35.5 35.4 35.3 35.1 35.0 34.9 35. 1 35.2 35.2 35.3 40.3 40.1 39.8 39.8 39.3 39.1 39.0 39.4 39.6 39.6 39.7 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 W«AJ . Aug. Sept Oct* Nov* Adjusted hourly earnings index—total private nonagricultural * Total private nonagricultural * Manufacturing $3.45 $3.57 1967 Current dollars Current dollars dollars s 129.2 137.5 146.0 157.5 170.6 183.0 196.8 212. 9 229.8 106.5 109.7 109.7 106.7 105.9 107.3 108.4 109.0 105.6 6.87 6.91 237.3 239.4 104.1 103.8 6.93 6.99 7.06 7.11 7. 15 7.22 7.30 7.36 7.42 7.49 7.55 240.3 242.4 245.2 246.2 248.3 250.9 102.7 102.2 102.0 101.4 101.4 101.5 102.0 102.0 101.5 101.4 3.82 4.09 4.42 4.83 5.22 5.68 6.17 6.69 3.70 3.94 4.24 4.53 4.86 5.25 5.69 6.16 6.34 6.39 6.41 6.45 6.51 6.54 6.57 6.62 6.67 6.71 6.77 6.82 6.90 Percent change from a year earlier 4 Index, 1967=100 252. 1 254.0 255.4 257.7 260.3 7.0 6.4 6.2 7.9 8.3 7.3 7.5 8.2 7.9 8.2 8.3 7.9 8.2 8.9 8.6 9.1 9.4 9.2 9.3 9.0 9.7 9.7 1967 dollars 2.6 3.0 0 -2.7 -.7 1.3 1.0 .6 -3.1 -4.1 -4.5 -5.3 -5.2 -5.0 -5.2 -4.6 -4.2 -3.4 -3.0 -3.2 -2.6 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS—PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Average gross weekly earnings Total private nonagricultural l Period Current dollars 1971... 1972 . 1973 1974 1975 . 1976 1977.— 1978 1979 1979: Nov Dec 1980: Jan.. Feb.. Mar Apr May.. June July Aug Sept Get*.v Nov .. ... $127. 31 136. 90 145. 39 154. 76 163. 53 175. 45 189. 00 203. 70 219. 30 225. 70 228. 12 228. 20 228. 98 230. 45 230. 86 230. 61 231. 70 232. 78 235. 52 238. 30 240. 06 243. 57 Manufacturing 1967 dollars 8 $104. 95 109. 26 109. 23 104.78 101. 45 102. 90 104. 13 104.30 100.73 99.03 98.88 97.52 96.53 95.82 95.08 . 94.16 93.77 94. 17 94.62 94.75 94.51 $142. 44 154. 71 166. 46 176.80 190. 79 209. 32 228. 90 249. 27 268. 94 275. 49 277. 78 279. 28 280. 30 280. 99 282.98 281. 00 282. 30 284. 70 289. 98 293. 83 296. 60 299. 74 $211. 67 221. 19 235. 89 249. 25 266. 08 283. 73 295. 65 318. 69 342.99 350. 76 355. 26 352. 86 357. 64 356. 85 359. 29 361. 74 366. 92 365. 79 366. 46 375. 87 373. 80 378. 70 Percent change from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural 5 Current dollars Current dollars * Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. * Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing. 1 Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index. Revised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978. 70-735 0 - 8 0 - 3 Construction Wholesale and retail trade $101. 09 106. 45 111. 76 119. 02 126. 45 133. 79 142. 52 153. 64 16496 169. 52 170. 50 172. 13 172. 04 173. 45 172. 16 173. 98 173. 86 174.90 176.96 178. 48 179. 68 181. 93 6.2 7.5 6.2 6.4 5.7 7.3 7.7 7.8 7.7 7.2 7.4 6.9 6.8 6'6 8.2 6.5 6.4 5.7 6.6 6.4 7.5 8.1 1967 dollars 1.9 4.1 -. 0 -4.1 3.2 1.4 1.2 .2 34 -4.9 -5.3 -6.2 -6.5 -7.0 -5.6 -6.9 -6.9 -6.5 -5.4 -5.5 -4.6 « Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places. * Based on unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, PRIVATE BUSINESS SECTOR Hours of 2all persons Output i Output per hour of ail persons Compensation per hour 3 Unit labor costs Implicit price deflator 4 PriPriNonNonNonPriNonNonPrivate Private Private Nonvate vate farm farm farm farm vate farm farm business business business business business business business business business business business business sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector Period 1967=100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted 1967 1968 1969 100.0 105. 1 108.3 100. 0 105.3 108.5 100.0 101.7 104.5 100.0 102.0 105.4 100.0 103.3 103.6 100. 0 103.2 103.0 100.0 107.6 115.0 100.0 107.4 114.2 100.0 104. 1 111.0 100.0 104.0 110.9 100. 0 103.9 108.8 100.0 1040 108.7 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 107.3 110.3 117.5 124. 4 121.4 107.4 110.2 117.8 124.9 121.8 102.8 102. 3 105.4 109.5 110.2 104.0 103.6 107.0 111.5 112.2 104.4 107.8 111.5 113.6 110.2 103.2 106.4 110. 1 112.0 108. 6 123.3 131.6 139.8 151,3 165.2 121.9 130.1 138. 4 149,2 163.0 118.2 122.0 125.4 133.2 149.8 118. 1 122. 3 125.7 133.2 150. 1 113.9 118.9 123.2 130.3 143. 1 1140 119.2 122.9 127.9 141.4 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 118.7 126.4 133.8 140.7 144.1 118.8 126.9 134.3 141.5 144.9 105.4 108.4 112.7 118.0 121.8 107.2 110.8 115.4 121.0 125.3 112.6 116.6 118.7 119.3 118.3 110.7 114.6 116.4 116.9 115.7 181. 7 197.6 213.3 231. 4 253. 1 179.3 194.2 209.6 227.5 247.9 161.3 169.5 179.7 194.0 214.0 161.9 169.5 180. 1 194.6 214.4 157.5 165.5 174.8 187.2 203.8 156.4 164.8 1745 186. 1 202.1 1979: I II III IV 144.4 143.4 143.8 144.8 145.5 144.2 144.6 145.5 121. 5 121.3 122.0 123. 0 124.8 124.9 125.7 126.2 118.9 118.3 117. 8 117.7 116.6 115.4 115.0 115.2 244. 8 250.4 255.7 260.3 240.2 244.9 249.9 255. 6 205.9 211.7 217.0 221. 1 206.0 212. 1 217,3 221.8 197.2 202.0 206. 1 209.7 195.1 200.3 2047 208.4 1980: I II.. Ill »_„ 144.8 140.3 140.0 145.6 140. 9 140.9 123. 1 120. 0 119. 7 126.7 123.8 123.3 117. 7 116.8 116.9 114.9 113. 8 114. 3 267.6 275.3 281. 1 262. 2 269. 0 274.7 227.5 235.6 240.4 228.2 236.3 240.5 214.5 220. 6 226.4 213.7 220.4 225.8 Percent change ; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates 2.0 5. 1 3.0 1.9 5.3 3.0 -0.0 1.7 2.7 0.3 2.0 3.3 2.0 3.3 .2 1.6 3.2 .2 5.3 7.6 6.9 5.4 7.4 6.4 3,3 4.1 6.6 3.8 40 6.7 2.9 3.9 4.7 3.3 40 45 -.9 2.8 6.6 5.9 -2.4 -1. 1 2.6 6.9 6.0 -2.5 -1.6 -.5 3. 1 3.9 .6 -1.3 4. 3." 2 4.2 .6 .7 3.3 3.4 1.9 -3.0 .2 3.0 3.6 1.7 -3.1 7.2 6.7 6.2 8.2 9.2 6.8 6.7 6.4 7.8 9.2 6.4 3.3 2.8 6.2 12.5 6.5 3.5 2.7 6.0 12.7 4.7 4.4 3.6 5.8 9.8 49 45 3. 1 41 10.5 1975 1976 1977 1978— 1979 -2.3 6.5 5.8 5.2 2.4 -2.5 6.9 5.8 5.4 2.4 -4.3 2.9 3.9 4.7 3.3 -4.4 3.3 4.2 4.9 3.5 2.1 3.5 1.8 .5 -.8 2.0 3.5 1.5 .5 -1.1 10. 0 8.8 8.0 8.5 9.4 10.0 8.3 7.9 8.6 9.0 7.7 5.0 6.0 8.0 10.3 7.9 4.7 6.3 8.0 10.2 10.1 5.0 5.6 7.1 8.9 10.6 5.4 5.9 6.6 8.6 1979: I II III IV 1.2 -2.9 1. 1 2.8 1.2 -3.6 1.2 2.5 4.5 -.9 2.5 3. 1 4.7 .4 2.7 1.7 -3. 1 —2.0 — 1.4 -.3 -3.3 -3.9 -1.5 .8 11.0 9.5 8.7 7.5 10. 2 8.1 8.5 9.5 14.6 11.8 10.3 7.8 14.0 12.5 10.1 8.6 9.3 10. 1 8.3 7.2 8. 1 11.0 9.0 7.4 .2 1980: I II -12.0 -.8 III "._- .2 -12.3 .1 .5 -9.6 -1.0 1.3 -8. 9 -1.4 -.3 -2.7 .3 — 1. 1 -3.7 1.5 11.7 12.0 8.7 10.7 10.8 8.8 12. 1 15.1 8.4 12.0 15.0 7.2 9.4 11.9 11.0 10.6 13.2 10.0 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973.. _ 1974 __ i Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars. ' Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. * Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the self-employed. « Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. 16 NOTE.—Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose 1.4 percent in November, following revised increases of 1.8 percent in October and 1.5 percent in September. INDEX, 1967=100* (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967=100* 160 -TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (RATIO SCALE) 180 -UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION - 160 140 UTILITIES 140 120 120 MINING MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION 100 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 NONDURABLE PERCENT* (RATIO SCALE) 100 MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE 90 80 120 70 1976 1976 1111111 iii 1977 1978 1111111111i 1979 1980 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period 1967 "DTODOTtiofi 1973. 1974 1975. 1976... _ 1977 1978 1979.. Total industrial production Percent Index, 1967= change from 100 year earlier 100 00 8.4 129.8 —.4 129.3 117.8 — 8.9 130.5 10.8 138.2 5.9 5.7 146. 1 4.4 152.5 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Seasonally adjusted] Industry production indexes, 1967=100 Manufacturing Capacity utilization rate, percent * Manufacturing Materials (Federal WharReserve Federal Comton series) Reserve merce2 series series 3 series Total Durable Nondurable Mining Utilities 87. 95 129.8 129.4 116.3 130.3 138.4 146.8 153.6 51. 98 127. 1 125.7 109.3 122.3 130.0 139.7 146. 4 85.97 133.8 134. 6 126.4 141.8 150.5 156.9 164.0 6.86 1147 115.3 112. 8 114.2 118.2 124.0 125.5 5. 69 145.4 143.7 146. 0 151.7 156.5 161.4 166. 0 91.8 87.1 73.4 81.1 82.7 85.6 87.4 87.6 83.8 72.9 79.5 81.9 844 85.7 86 83 77 81 83 84 83 92.9 90.2 79.4 85.5 88.1 90.9 92.7 81 91.8 80 91.3 76 85.7 76 83.5 1979- Nov Dec 152.3 152.5 1. 1 .5 153.3 153.2 145.2 144.8 165.0 165.3 129.9 . 167.2 166.9 131. 4 86.2 86. 1 844 84 1 1980* Jan Feb Mar Apr TMTfl v June July Aiiff Sept5 Oct Novp 152.7 152.6 152. 1 148.3 144.0 141.5 140.4 141.8 143.9 146.5 148.5 .5 .1 -.9 -1.9 -5.7 -7.5 -8.2 -6.8 -5.8 -4. 1 -2.5 153.4 153.0 152. 1 147.9 143.4 140.3 139.1 140.6 143.2 146.0 148. 0 144.7 144. 1 143.4 138.4 133.3 129.9 128.3 129.4 131.7 135.3 137.8 166.0 165.9 1647 161.6 158. 0 155.3 154.7 156.9 159.8 161.4 162.7 133.5 132. 9 133.0 133. 1 133.4 132.9 130.6 129.6 130.5 131.8 134.2 1648 167. 1 172. 0 169. 1 167. 7 169.3 171.8 173.8 171.6 170.8 171.4 86. 1 85.6 847 82. 1 78.3 75.7 73.7 746 76.3 78.3 79.6 83.9 83.5 82.8 80.3 77.6 75.7 74.9 75.5 76.6 77.9 78.8 » Output as percent of capacity. Annual data are averages of four monthly indexes. > Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Annual data are averages of quarterly data. 1 Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), and Wharton School of Finance. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1967=100, seasonally adjusted] Products Final Products Consumer goods Period Total 1967 proportion 1970 , 1971 _ 1972 _ 1973 . 1974. 1975 _ _ 1976,...-., 1977 . 1978 — — 1979 . 1979- Nov Dec 1980* Jan Feb Mar _Apr May_ „ _ '_ June July, . -_ _ u iujr. _ Aug Sept Oct p. Nov 9 47.82 105.3 106.3 115.7 124.4 125. 1 118.2 127.6 135. 9 142. 2 147. 2 147. 1 147.2 147. 0 147.7 147.7 145.4 143. 1 142.3 142.4 142.8 143.8 145.6 146.8 Equipment NonDurable durable goods goods Total 7.89 27. 68 109.0 114. 7 124. 4 131.5 128.9 124. 0 137. 1 145.3 149. 1 150.8 149. 1 148.6 147.9 148.4 148.6 145. 3 142.4 142. 1 142.0 142. 7 144. 1 146. 4 147.6 106. 1 118.8 133.8 146.2 135. 3 121.4 141.9 154.0 159.2 155.8 149.6 146.7 142.3 144.5 144. 1 136.3 128.8 128.2 128.3 128. 6 132.9 139.5 141.6 Intermediate products 19. 79 110. 1 113. 1 120. 6 125. 6 126. 3 125. 1 135. 2 141. 9 145. 1 148.8 149. 0 149.3 150. 1 150.0 150.3 148.8 147.7 147.6 147.4 148.3 148.6 149. 1 150.0 Total Business Total £0.14 100. 1 94.7 103.8 114.5 120.0 110.2 114. 6 123.0 132.8 142.2 144.2 145.2 145. 8 146.6 146.6 145. 6 144.0 142.6 142.9 142.9 143.3 144.5 145.8 12. 63 107.0 104. 1 118.0 134.2 142.4 128.2 135.4 147,8 160. 3 171. 3 172. 6 174. 1 174.9 176.0 176. 1 174.2 171.9 169. 8 170. 1 170.3 170.7 171.9 173.4 12.89 Materials Construction supplies 6.42 111.0 116.8 128.4 139.8 134. 5 116.3 132.6 140.6 151.7 158. 0 157.4 155.7 156.4 153. 8 152.3 139.4 133. 0 128.5 128.6 133. 1 137.5 140. 1 142.9 112.9 116.7 126.5 137.2 135.3 123. 1 137.2 145. 1 154. 1 160.5 160.2 159.6 160.8 159.2 158.3 150.8 146. 2 143.5 144.5 147.6 150. 1 151.3 152. 8 89. 29 109.2 111.3 122. 3 133. 9 132.4 115.5 131. 7 138.6 148.3 156.4 156.2 156.6 157.0 156.5 155.3 151.0 144.3 140.0 136.5 138.6 142. 1 146. 1 149.0 Supplementary group: Energy total 12. 2S 117.0 119. 5 125.2 128.3 125.5 125.5 129. 1 132.9 135. 4 137.9 138.3 138.4 138.6 139.4 139.6 139. 1 137.9 138.4 139.2 139.2 137.8 136.8 137.6 [1967=100, seasonally adjusted] Durable manufactures Primary metals Period Total 1967 proportion 1970 .. 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 . 1977 1978 1979 1979: Nov. Dec 1980: Jan Feb Mar_> . Apr.. __ __ _ May June July . «"*j _ _ Aug Sept Oct v. Nov * Iron and steel Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery 9. 15 104.4 100. 2 116. 0 133.7 140. 1 125. 1 134. 5 143.6 153.6 163.7 162.9 163. 0 167. 1 167.0 166.5 163.2 162. 1 158.3 158.5 158.8 159. 1 160. 5 161.5 6.57 4.21 5.93 106.6 100.2 112. 1 126.7 123. 1 96.4 109.7 111. 1 119.9 121. 3 117. 1 115.3 116.4 111. 9 113.7 106.4 96. 1 90.4 81.7 86.0 89.9 100.0 107. 7 104.7 96. 1 107. 1 122.3 119.8 95.8 104.8 103.8 113. 2 113.2 108. 1 106. 6 107.2 103.4 105.9 97.4 84.4 75.4 68. 1 75.3 79.8 93.8 102.4 103.5 112. 1 124.7 124.2 109. 9 123.9 131. 0 141. 6 148.5 146.9 146.2 145. 0 145.7 145.5 141.4 133.2 126. 1 123.8 125.8 129.0 132.4 134.6 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System. 18 Nondurable manufactures Transportation equipment Total Motor vehicles and parts 8.05 9.27 4.50 108. 1 107.7 122.2 143. 1 143.8 116.5 134.8 145.4 159.4 175.0 179.5 181.6 181.7 179.2 179.2 177.0 171.4 166.6 165. 0 166.7 167.8 169.9 171.9 89.5 97.9 108.2 118.3 108.7 97.4 111. 1 122. 2 132.5 135.4 128.3 127.3 122. 1 125.7 123. 8 115. 1 109.8 110.0 110.7 108. 3 112.9 118.9 120.9 92.3 118.6 135.8 148. 8 128.2 111. 1 142.0 161. 1 169.9 159. 9 139. 3 137. 1 126.2 133.9 130. 1 114. 7 105.9 106.7 107.9 104.4 113.4 124. 7 128.3 Lumber and products Apparel products Print- Cheming icals and and pubprodlishing ucts 1.64 105.6 113.8 120.8 126. 0 116.2 107. 6 123.2 131.2 136.3 136. 9 135. 9 132.4 131.6 130.2 125.3 105.2 104. 5 109.7 112.8 121. 7 122. 7 121.4 8. SI 101.4 104.7 109.4 117.3 114.3 107.6 125. 7 134.2 134.2 134.4 133.5 131. 1 131.5 133.8 136. 1 131.3 128.6 127.2 121.5 123.8 4. 72 107.0 107. 1 112.7 118.2 118.2 113.3 122.5 127.6 131. 5 136.9 136. 2 137.8 138.9 139.9 139.2 136.5 135.5 135. 4 138.6 140.3 140. 1 141.5 142. 4 7. 74 120.4 125. 9 143. 6 154.5 159.4 147.2 170.9 185.7 197.4 211.8 215.3 216.8 218.0 217. 4 213.6 209. 1 199.2 191. 1 190.3 197.8 206.0 210.4 Foods 8.76 108.9 112.8 116.8 120. 9 124.0 123.4 133. 0 138.8 142. 7 147.5 147.9 148.4 148. 5 149.0 149.3 147.8 149.5 149.0 148.9 148.3 148.7 149. 2 NEW CONSTRUCTION Construction contracts8 Private Period Total new construction expenditures Residential Total Total1 Commercial and industrial New housing units Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1972= 100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) Billions of dollars 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 . 137.9 138.5 134.5 151. 1 174.0 205.5 229.0 105.4 100.2 93.7 111.9 135.8 159.6 179.9 59.7 50.4 46.5 60.5 81.0 93.4 99.0 50.1 40.6 34.4 47.3 65.7 75.8 78.6 21.7 23.8 20.8 19.9 22.5 29.6 39.9 24.0 25.9 26.4 31.5 32.4 36.6 41.0 32.5 38.3 40.9 39. 1 38.2 45.9 49.0 Seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1979: Oct Nov Dec 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June.* July . J Aug Sept 9 Oct *.. 239.9 239.4 244.0 259.6 248.8 237. 1 225.8 218.9 215.0 214.2 215. 1 224. 1 225.0 187.3 187.4 191.2 198. 1 191.7 180.6 171.5 164.8 161.3 158.9 162.6 168.6 169.9 101.5 101.8 102. 1 105.8 101.5 94.0 83.5 77.0 73.4 75.0 79.8 85.9 87.5 79.9 79.0 78.5 80.7 75.1 68.4 60.7 55.2 51.9 52.2 56.1 60.8 62.8 i Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. » F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971 for floor space. 42.9 43.5 45.3 47.4 46.4 43.8 44.5 44.3 44.6 41.3 41. 0 40.5 39.7 109.2 103.0 101.9 121.0 153. 6 174.1 185.6 42.9 42.0 43.8 449 43.8 42.8 43.5 43.5 43.4 42.6 41.7 42.2 42.7 52.6 52.0 52.9 61.5 57.0 56.5 54.3 54.1 53.7 55.3 52.5 55.4 55. 1 171 172 183 190 171 155 130 125 145 148 192 163 167 1,010 840 555 592 739 977 1,050 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1,118 1,010 969 1,253 1,026 994 875 753 854 867 792 797 857 NOTE.—New construction expenditures data prior to 1973 not comparable with later data. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New private homes New private housing units Period Units started, by type of structure Total 1972 1973 1974 1975 .. 1976 1977 ... .. 1978 . .. .. 1979 1 unit 2, 356. 6 2, 045. 3 1, 337. 7 1, 160. 4 1, 537. 5 1, 987. 1 2, 020. 3 1, 745. 1 1, 309. 2 1, 132. 0 888. 1 892.2 1, 162. 4 1, 450. 9 1, 433. 3 1, 194. 1 1,522 1,548 1,419 1,330 1,041 1,030 906 1,223 1,265 1,429 1,541 1,561 1,555 980 1,055 1,002 786 617 628 628 757 869 1,003 1,059 1,037 987 2-4 units 141.3 118.3 68. 1 640 85.9 121.7 125.0 122.0 5 or more units 906.2 795.0 381.6 204.3 289.2 414.4 462.0 429.0 Homes for sale at end of period * Units authorized Units completed 2, 218. 9 1, 819. 5 1, 074. 4 939.2 1, 296. 2 1, 690. 0 1, 800. 5 1, 551. 8 2, 003. 9 2, 100. 5 1, 728. 5 1, 317. 2 1, 377. 2 1, 657. 1 1, 867. 5 1, 870. 8 718 634 519 549 646 819 817 709 409 418 346 313 353 402 414 3 398 1,831 1,880 1,787 1,832 1,669 1,897 1,536 1, 469 1,502 1,405 1,251 1,274 617 571 584 548 458 345 458 544 646 638 573 548 399 398 396 384 377 364 351 340 333 330 336 335 Homes sold Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent)2 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.0 5.6 5.2 5.0 5.3 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1979: Nov. .. Dec 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July.. Aug Sept 9 Oct 9 Nov 9 * Seasonally adjusted. a Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. * New series beginning March 1979. 114 110 127 101 91 100 80 75 80 136 142 120 160 428 383 290 443 333 302 198 391 316 290 340 404 408 1,287 1,247 1,271 1, 168 968 789 825 1,078 1,236 1,361 1,564 1,333 1,371 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.5 NOTE.—Units authorized beginning 1978 relate to 16,000 permit-issuing places; data for 1972-77 are for 14,000 places and for 1971, for 13,000 places. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSIHESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—TOTAL AND TRADE Business sales rose 2 percent in October while inventories rose $2H billion. According to the advance survey, retail sales rose 1^ percent in November following increases of K percent in October and 1K percent in September. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 140 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) (RATIO SCALE) 130 120 110 RETAIL INVENTORIES \- 100 90 80 RETAIL SALES 70 60 50 40 1976 1977 150 — 1979 1978 RATIO* 1.80 1980 100 1980 1980 1976 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCEi DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCI COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total business 1 Wholesale Retail Sales Period Sales * Inventories 8 Inven-8 Sales 2 tories Total 2 Inventories DurNonable durable Total goods goods stores stores 3 Dur- Nonable durable goods goods stores stores Inventory-4sales ratio Total business l Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979. 1979: Get Nov Dec 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July___ Aug Sept Oct»— Nov* . 130, 049 152, 237 175, 741 180, 263 202, 001 224, 786 254, 297 288, 388 298, 452 298, 949 302, 117 312, 458 310, 181 305, 165 294, 998 292, 478 294, 203 304, 154 308, 019 318, 321 325, 296 203, 161 234, 162 285, 518 285, 035 310, 736 337, 432 380, 643 426, 796 422, 710 425, 952 426, 796 431, 420 435, 155 439, 114 445, 170 445, 801 447, 031 449, 510 451, 951 454, 566 456, 911 8i The term "business" also includes manufacturing Monthly average for year and total for month. 3 Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. 4 29, 584 36, 822 45, 836 44, 633 48, 408 53, 509 62, 842 73, 551 77, 322 78, 203 78, 678 80, 906 79, 299 78, 550 76, 391 76, 376 76, 629 80, 189 82, 606 85, 470 88, 080 39, 786 46, 254 56, 537 55, 113 61, 307 67, 998 80, 771 89, 676 88, 819 89, 086 89, 676 90, 690 91, 342 91, 497 92, 378 92, 562 93, 633 94, 619 97, 111 98, 111 99, 661 37, 422 42, 461 45, 083 49, 013 54, 784 60, 435 66, 741 73, 837 75, 583 76, 421 77, 150 79, 464 77, 993 76, 534 75, Oil 74, 587 76, 001 78, 287 78, 770 80, 087 80, 519 81, 826 (see page 21). For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month. 20 12, 369 14. 409 14, 118 15, 247 18, 150 20, 724 23, 458 25, 680 25, 656 25, 679 25, 943 27, 268 26, 369 24, 296 22, 821 22, 537 23, 212 25, 076 24, 821 25, 868 25, 460 26, 055 25, 054 28, 052 30, 965 33, 766 36, 633 39, 711 43, 283 48, 158 49, 927 50, 742 51, 207 52, 196 51, 624 52, 238 52, 190 52, 050 52, 789 53, 211 53, 949 54, 219 55, 059 55, 771 55, 079 24, 238 63, 237 28, 418 71, 067 32, 861 71, 744 33, 356 79, 273 37, 841 89, 210 42, 970 101, 538 50, 100 108, 862 53, 087 110,415 54, 523 110,383 54, 415 108,862 53, 087 108, 436 52, 130 108, 717 52, 232 109, 095 52, 276 110, 252 52, 490 109, 837 51, 792 109, 768 51, 645 110, 786 51, 531 111, 323 52, 383 112, 840 52, 238 114,374 52, 453 30, 841 34, 819 38, 206 38, 388 41, 432 46, 240 51, 438 55, 775 55,892 55,968 55,775 56, 306 56, 485 56, 819 57, 762 58, 045 58, 123 59, 255 58, 940 60, 602 61, 921 1.50 1.43 1.47 1.58 1.48 1.44 1.41 1.41 1.42 1.43 1.41 1.38 1.40 1.44 1.51 1.52 1.52 1.48 1.47 1.43 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.48 1.44 1.38 1.39 1.43 1.45 1.46 1.44 1.41 1.36 1.39 1.43 1.47 1.47 1.44 1.42 1.41 1.41 1.42 Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS Manufacturers' orders and shipments rose in October while inventories fell. According to advance data, durable goods new orders and shipments rose further in November. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 180 160 140 2»U 240 =-SHIPME NTS 2^~\•~*^ 120 100 r-X_^X - r—~H^ _r " V 60 .-£.~—„.-"•*>«,/'' •—.*""•*"' - -v;:;;;>^^^_ ^ '^ ^^~~~^ H^-^ — ^~~~~" —I - •—'— - - ,-*"""* 120 . 100 >•*———""" --- - DURABLE GC>ODS --—" - NONDURA M GOODS - 80 mmm.^,.m~m 40 \" -..- "*" - 60 I i i t ii 1 I 1 i I 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 MIt *<^^'~~" —^ " - v - / * - TOTAL 140 _ ^ \^s^ 120 - ^-^^-^1 S DURABLE C OODS \ 80 - -^ */ 60 .-^ ""*•""*" -/^:^ RAT 0* 2.2 - 1.6 1.4 i 1977 • ,,,,!,.,,, ,,,,,! 1979 1978 r^/ - .. ' ^~v ^ 1.2 1 II i 1 I I M 11 1976 1980 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 NonDurable durable goods goods 72, 954 39, 703 84, 821 44, 253 86, 617 43, 678 98, 810 50, 697 110, 842 58, 010 124, 714 66, 505 141, 000 73, 981 Mill 1977 •^-^-J*^ 1 1 | 1 I I I M II M ! M ! 1 1 1 M .1978 1979 r\ 1 M I1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1980 33, 251 40, 568 42, 939 48, 113 52, 832 58, 210 67, 019 Manufacturers' new orders1 Durable goods ManufacCapital NonNon- turers' goods Durable Total Total indus- durable unfilled goods durable Total goods goods orders3 tries, nondefense Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 124, 672 157, 915 158, 178 170, 156 180, 224 198, 334 228, 258 43, 245 76, 183 42, 853 56, 048 87, 157 46, 740 56, 412 85, 082 41, 957 61, 061 99, 184 51, 047 64, 472 112, 451 59, 562 68, 878 128, 488 70, 145 76, 569 144, 335 77, 215 11, 089 12, 737 10, 772 12, 501 15, 084 18, 308 21, 643 159, 468 187, 574 169, 126 173, 646 193, 561 239, 321 279, 710 1.58 1.65 1.83 1. 66 1.59 1.52 1.52 75, 340 146, 610 76, 521 76, 007 146, 996 75, 903 76, 569 149, 232 77, 199 21, 073 70, 089 274, 097 21, 754 71, 092 276, 767 22, 285 72, 033 279, 710 1.54 1.57 1.56 155, 588 154, 603 152, 065 143, 313 138, 920 138, 582 147, 104 147, 180 155, 262 158, 054 74, 121 73, 582 74, 519 70, 897 71, 592 72, 128 72, 876 74, 951 76, 302 77, 361 283, 211 284, 924 286, 907 286, 629 284, 033 281, 044 282, 463 282, 997 285, 497 286, 849 1.53 1.54 1.59 1.69 1.72 1. 72 1.68 1.66 1.59 1.55 75, 544 73, 751 74, 191 70, 003 223, 476 148, 136 70, 574 226, 483 150, 476 72, 098 228, 258 151, 689 1980: Jan... 152, 088 Feb... 152, 889 Mar.. L50, 081 Apr... L43, 596 May.. 141, 515 June.. 141, 573 July.. 145, 678 Aug... 146, 643 Sept.. 152, 764 Oct... 156, 697 Nov5. 77, 948 79, 159 75, 925 72, 207 69, 443 69, 056 72, 544 72, 057 76, 571 79, 497 80, 168 74, 140 73, 730 74, 156 71, 389 72, 072 72, 517 73, 134 74, 586 76, 193 77, 200 232, 294 235, 096 238, 522 242,540 243, 402 243, 630 244, 105 243, 517 243, 615 242, 876 Manufacturers* inventory— shipments ratio * 81, 426 101, 866 101, 766 109, 095 115, 751 129, 456 151, 689 1979: Oct... 145, 547 Nov.. 144, 326 Dec... 146, 289 154, 043 155, 314 157, 127 159, 877 160, 607 160, 404 160, 875 161, 081 160, 691 160, 137 i Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales. * Book value, end of period. * End of period. * For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly 1 I 1 1 1 1980 1979 COUNCIL OF ICONOMIC ADVISERS Manufacturers' shipments l Manufacturers' inventories2 Total 1 11 1 1I1 M 11 INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO *SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period - 2.0 1.8 NONDURABl E GOODS 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i i i i i i i i ii 1978 1977 1976 -V- 40 1976 NONDURA ^BLE GOODS - IIIii 40 180 160 ~ NFW ORHFR^ 100 200 160 DURABLE GO DDS x - TOTAL _ ^.-i 80 ~ INVENTORIES 78, 251 79, 782 81, 395 82, 663 82, 795 83, 226 83, 230 82, 436 82, 924 82, 739 81, 467 23, 859 81, 021 21, 480 77, 546 22, 590 72, 416 22, 162 67, 328 19, 589 66, 454 19, 954 74, 228 21, 608 72, 229 19, 371 78, 960 20, 860 80, 693 20, 618 81, 455 21, 723 33, 330 40, 417 43, 125 48, 137 52, 889 58, 344 67, 120 shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. * Preliminary; not charted. Source: Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In November the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.6 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 0.5 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods were up 0.7 percent. Prices of capital equipment rose 0.6 percent. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 260 INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 260 120 120 100 100 1980 1972 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967=100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Finished goods Intermediate Crude materials materials Total finFoodished Consumer goods Capistuffs conFoods tal Nonsumer Total and Other Total and Other DurfeedTotal able dur- equip- goods feeds * stuffs able ment 113.4 113.2 113.6 119.5 116.6 118.7 118. 5 118. 9 127.6 127.5 128.0 118. 5 115.8 120.5 123.5 129.2 131.6 168.4 128. 1 174. 0 180. 0 162.5 138.6 126.3 146.8 141. 0 149.3 162. 9 200.2 159.5 196. 1 189.4 208.9 153.1 138.2 163.0 162. 5 163.6 180.0 195.3 178.6 196.9 191. 8 206.9 161. 8 144.4 173.3 173.2 169. 0 189.3 186. 6 189.5 205. 1 190. 1 233.6 172. 1 152.2 185. 4 184.5 178.9 201.7 191.0 202.4 214.3 190.9 258.4 183.7 165.8 195.4 199. 1 192.6 215. 5 201.0 216.4 240. 1 215.3 286.7 208.2 181.9 225.9 216.7 215.7 242.8 223.2 244.0 282.2 247.2 348.3 222.9 189.4 245.5 222.9 227.9 257.3 230. 5 258.9 298.4 255.2 380.2 225. 5 191. 6 248.4 224.8 229.9 260.2 231. 1 262.0 301.7 255.8 388.5 232.0 198. 1 255.0 228.4 233.6 267.3 225. 1 269.9 299.5 246.0 400. 9 238.6 202. 1 263.2 230.0 237. 6 272. 6 237.6 274.7 307.5 251.3 414.2 243. 0 200. 5 272.0 232. 0 241.4 273.9 230.2 276.5 300.9 244.4 408.2 246. 7 201.2 277. 7 236.2 241. 7 274.3 223.9 277.4 290.4 229.5 406. 2 248. 0 201. 0 280.2 236. 6 242. 6 275.4 237.6 277. 7 294. 1 235. 1 406.2 249.6 203. 7 281. 0 238.3 244.3 277.6 237.7 280.0 295. 2 237.7 404.2 251.7 207.0 282. 4 241.6 248.7 280. 0 247.6 282.0 313.9 259.2 417.5 252. 6 207. 3 283.4 243. 5 252. 7 282. 1 269.2 282. 9 331. 6 282.4 424.8 252.3 207. 0 283. 3 243.2 252. 3 283.7 271.6 284. 4 335.8 281.4 439.0 253.9 209. 5 284.0 246.6 253.8 286.3 288.0 286.2 342. 3 285.5 449.9 255.7 210.0 287.0 248. 0 255. 5 289. 1 292.8 288.9 346.2 287. 1 458.2 Finished goods excluding consumer foods Period 1972 1973. .. 1974 1975 1976. 1977 1978 1979 1979: Nov Dec 1980: Jan _ Feb Mar Apr. _ May June. July Aug_ Sept Oct Nov Total finConished sumer goods foods Total 117.2 127.9 147.5 163.4 170.3 180.6 194. 6 216. 1 226.6 228. 5 232.2 235. 5 238.8 240.3 241. 0 242. 7 246.8 250.2 249.8 251.9 253.5 121.7 146.4 166.9 181.0 180.2 189. 1 206.7 226. 3 233.5 234. 1 232. 0 231.0 233.4 226. 9 227. 0 228. 7 237.6 247.9 247. 4 248. 7 250.0 115.4 120.1 139.3 156. 2 165. 5 176.2 188.9 210.8 222.2 224. 6 230.0 234. 6 238.2 242. 0 243. 0 244. 6 247.2 248.4 248. 1 250.4 252. 1 1 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and manufactured animal feeds. 22 NOTE.—Data revised for July 1980. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CONSUMER PRICES In October, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 1.0 percent seasonally adjusted (0.9 percent unadjusted). Food prices rose 0.8 percent (0.5 percent unadjusted) and nonfood commodity prices were up 0.8 percent (also 0.8 percent unadjusted). Services prices were up 1.2 percent (1.1 percent unadjusted). INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 300 INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 300 140 140 120 120 110 110 1972 1980 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [1967=100] i Period 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 .:.. _ _ ... All items 125. 3 133. 1 147. 7 161. 2 170. 5 181. 5 195. 4 217. 4 Food 123. 5 14L 4 161. 7 175. 4 180. 8 192. 2 211. 4 234. 5 Commodities less food Services 119. 4 123. 5 136. 6 149. 1 156. 6 165. 1 174. 7 195. 1 133. 3 139. 1 152. 1 166. 6 180. 4 194. 3 210. 9 234. 2 1 M " commodi- home Food away iroiii home 121. 6 141. 4 162.4 175. 8 179. 5 190. 2 210.2 232. 9 131. 1 141. 4 159. 4 174. 3 186. 1 200. 3 218.4 242. 9 Food of clt laco 120. 9 129. 9 145. 5 158. 4 165. 2 174. 7 187. 1 208. 4 123. 5 141. 4 161. 7 175. 4 180. 8 192. 2 211. 4 234. 5 225.4 227.5 229.9 233.2 236.4 239.8 242.5 244.9 247. 6 247.8 249.4 251.7 253.9 238.2 239. 1 241.7 243.8 244.9 247.3 249. 1 250.4 252. 0 254.8 258.7 261. 1 262.4 203.4 205. 4 207.2 243.6 246.2 249.3 210.4 213.8 216.7 218. 6 220. 2 221.4 222.2 224.2 226. 6 228.3 253. 1 256.8 261.3 265.3 269. 2 274.2 272.4 272.5 274.8 277.9 215. 8 217.9 220.4 223.5 226. 1 228. 8 230.0 230.8 231.6 233. 0 235.8 238.7 240.7 NOTE.—Data beginning January 1978 relate to all urban consumers. Earlier data relate to urban wage earners and clerical workers. 119.4 123. 5 136. 6 149. 1 156. 6 165. 1 174. 7 195. 1 Services Durable Nondurable 118. 9 121.9 130.6 145.5 154. 3 163.2 173.9 191.1 119.8 124.8 140.9 151. 7 158.3 166.5 174.3 198.7 133. 3 139. 1 152. 1 166.6 180.4 194.3 210. 9 234.2 195.7 198.4 200.3 202.5 203.5 204.0 205. 1 206. 3 207.4 208.5 211.8 215. 1 217.7 210.3 212. 0 215.0 221.8 228.4 233.8 235. 1 235.5 235. 8 236.6 237. 6 238. 1 238.4 243.5 246. 1 249.5 252.9 256.8 261.6 265. 6 269.8 274. 7 272. 5 272. 3 274. 3 277. 6 Seasonally adjusted Unadjusted 1979: Oct Nov Dec 1980: Jan Feb.__ Mar Apr May June July.__ Aug Sept.__ Oct Commodities less food Food 239. 8 241. 4 244.8 244.8 244.7 247. 1 248. 4 249. 2 250. 5 252.9 257. 5 261.6 263.6 237. 1 238.5 242.3 241.8 240.9 243.5 244.5 245. 1 246.0 248.9 254. 7 259.6 261.7 249.9 252.0 254.4 202.9 205. 1 207.3 256.9 258.6 260.6 262. 5 263.8 266. 1 267.3 269. 0 271. 4 273.4 211. 5 215.2 217.9 219. 0 219.8 220. 4 221.4 223. 5 226.0 227.8 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS Period 1971 1972 1973_ 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 Percent change from preceding period; seasonally adjusted * Percent change from 3 months earlier; seasonally adjusted annual rates Percent change from 6 months earlier; seasonally adjusted annual rates Consumer goods Consumer goods Consumer goods Total finished goods Capital Total finequipExclud- ment ished goods Foods ing foods Capital Total equipfinExclud- ment ished ing Foods goods foods Capital equipExclud- ment Foods ing foods 3.2 3.8 11.8 18.3 6.6 3.3 6.6 9.2 12.5 5.9 8.0 22.5 13.0 5.5 -2.5 6.6 11.9 7.5 2.0 2.0 7.4 20.5 6.7 4.9 6.1 8.4 17.8 2.4 2.0 5.3 22.6 8.2 6.4 7.2 8.0 8.7 1979: Nov Dee 1.2 .8 1.9 .3 1.1 1.2 .7 .9 16.1 13.3 13.5 8.6 21.5 17.9 9.5 10.0 14.1 .147 9.1 11.9 21.3 20.6 7.5 7.9 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July AUS Sept Oct Nov. 1.6 1.4 1.4 .6 .3 .7 1.7 1.4 -.2 .8 .6 -.9 -.4 1.0 -2.8 .0 .7 3.9 4.3 -.2 .5 .5 2.9 2.8 1.8 1.5 .5 .6 .8 .4 —.1 .6 .7 1.6 .7 .9 1.8 .2 .7 1.4 .8 .1 1.4 .6 15.7 16.7 19.3 147 9.7 6.7 11.3 16.2 12.2 8.5 5.4 5.2 -4.2 1.2 8. 5 -6.7 7 8 20.2 42.2 36.9 20.0 3.4 22.8 31.3 34.8 27.9 16.7 11.3 8.4 7.6 4.4 3.5 5.0 13.3 13.4 13.4 144 12.0 11.3 9.5 12.2 8.5 8.5 7.6 15.7 16.4 16.2 15.2 13. 1 12.8 13.0 12.9 9.4 9.9 10.6 8.4 4.3 3.6 -1.9 -5.5 -4.6 49 15.2 12.4 20. 1 21.3 23.6 26.3 26.1 25.3 23.8 22.5 17.7 12. 1 7.8 5.9 6.3 9.6 11.4 11.7 13.8 12.7 12.4 11.9 12.1 9.9 9.0 9.9 - WV**J _ Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. i Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted). NOTE.—Based on revised data for July 1980. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES Percent change from preceding period; seasonally adjusted l Percent change from 3 months earlier; Percent change from 6 months earlier ; seasonally adjusted annual rates seasonally adjusted annual rates Commodities less food 3.4 3.4 8.8 12.2 7. 0 4.8 6.8 9. 0 13. 3 4,3 4. 7 20. 1 12.2 6. 5 .6 8.0 11.8 10. 2 Commodities less food 2.3 2.5 5.0 13.2 6.2 5. 1 4. 9 7. 7 14 3 1979: Oct Nov.. Dee— 1.0 1.0 1.2 .8 .7 1.4 .8 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.4 13.4 13.5 13.7 7.9 10.4 12.1 144 13.5 12.7 15.1 149 15.8 13.4 13.3 13.8 6.8 6.9 9.3 15.1 15.2 145 146 143 15.1 1980: Jan.— Feb.Mar— Apr— May — June— July.. Aug... Sept... Oct.- 1.4 1.4 1.4 .9 .9 1.0 0 .7 1.0 1.0 0 -.0 1.0 .5 .3 .5 1.0 1.8 1.6 .8 2.0 1.7 1.3 .5 .4 .3 .5 .9 1. 1 .8 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.8 -.8 —. i .7 1.2 15.6 17.2 18.1 15.9 13.6 11.6 7.6 6.9 7.0 11.3 8.6 5.6 3.8 6.0 7.6 5.6 7.4 140 18.9 18. 0 18.1 21.2 22.1 15.0 8.8 47 45 6.9 10.6 12.1 16.4 18.6 20.9 21.7 21.8 21.6 10.8 3.8 -.6 7.7 145 15.3 15.9 15.7 15.4 148 11.7 10.2 9.3 9.4 8.2 8.0 7.9 7.3 6.6 47 6.7 10.7 12. 1 12.6 16.2 17.3 17.3 16.5 148 13.0 9.6 7.9 7.6 8.2 15.7 16.7 18.3 19.0 20.2 21.2 16.1 12.4 9.9 9.2 Period 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 . 1977 1978 1979 . 1 All items Food Services All items Services All items Food Services 4. 1 3.6 6.2 11.3 8. 1 7. 3 7.9 9. 3 13. 7 Annual changes are from December to December (unadjusted). NOTE.—Data beginning January 1978 relate to all urban consumers. Earlier data relate to urban wage earners and clerical workers. 24 Food Commodities less food Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers rose 1.9 percent in November and prices paid by farmers rose 0.7 percent in the month ended November 15. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) i i i i I i i i i i I i i i | i I i i i i i I i i i i | | i i i |i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i i i I i i i |i | i i I |il I I I I I I I i i i i I i i i i i 100 i i i i i I i i i i i 100 140 140 120 120 100 100 80 80 1980 1972 J/ RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967=100] Prices received by farmers Period 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977.. 1978 1979 All farm products ._ Crops Livestock and products Prices paid by farmers All commodi- Production items, ties, services, Production interest, interest, items taxes, taxes, andl and wage wage rates rates Ratio 2 125 179 192 185 186 183 210 241 114 175 224 201 197 192 203 223 136 183 165 172 177 175 217 257 125 144 164 180 192 202 219 250 125 149 169 186 198 208 227 261 121 146 166 182 193 200 217 248 101 124 117 103 97 91 96 97 1979: Nov Dec 238 239 226 222 251 255 258 260 267 270 256 258 92 92 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July... Aug Sept Oct Nov 236 238 234 224 227 232 247 256 261 260 265 220 220 220 217 223 226 242 250 259 259 273 252 255 247 232 232 237 252 262 263 263 259 269 271 274 274 275 278 280 283 286 288 290 281 283 287 285 285 287 290 294 297 299 301 263 266 270 268 268 270 273 278 282 284 287 88 88 85 82 83 83 88 90 91 90 91 _ . . 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes have been converted to a 1967=100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS The narrow measures of money slowed further in November, but M-2 and M-3 continued to accelerate. M-1A remained within the FOMCs longer run ranges. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALi) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Ml-A Period Currency plus demand1 deposits 1973: 1974: 1975: 1976: 1977: 1978: 1979: 1979: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Nov Dec Jan 1980: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov* _ _ 264. 1 275.3 287.9 305.0 328.4 351.6 369.7 368.0 369. 7 370.8 373.7 373.1 367.6 367.8 371.3 373.7 379.7 383.7 386.7 388.9 Ml-B M2 Ml-B plus overnight RPs and Ml-A plus Eurodollars, MMMF other shares, and checkable deposits at savings and banks and small time thrift deposits at institutions commercial banks and thrift institutions 2 264.4 275.7 289.0 307.7 332.5 359.9 386.4 384.2 386.4 388. 1 391.3 391.2 386.6 386.2 390. 9 394.5 401.6 406.9 410.8 414.0 858.1 906.2 1, 022. 4 1, 166. 7 1, 294. 1 1, 401. 5 1, 525. 5 1, 516. 4 1, 525. 5 1, 534. 5 1, 546. 7 1, 553. 1 1, 549. 9 1, 562. 1 1, 585. 7 1, 609. 7 1, 629. 2 1, 640. 9 1, 653. 6 1, 668. 8 i Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions. * Total M2 excludes demand deposits held by thrift institutions at commerical banks, not shown separately in components. 3 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. 26 M3 M2 plus large time deposits and term RPs at commercial banks and thrift institutions 976.1 1, 058. 6 1, 161. 0 1, 299. 7 1, 460. 3 1, 623. 6 1, 775. 5 1, 765. 4 1, 775. 5 1, 786. 9 1, 804. 5 1,811. 1 1, 811. 1 1, 824. 2 1, 844. 5 1, 865. 2 1, 886. 3 1, 900. 8 1, 918. 2 1, 943. 5 L Percent change 3 M3 plus other liquid Ml-A Ml-B assets 1, 137. 2 1, 242. 8 1, 369. 6 1, 523. 5 1, 715. 5 1, 927. 7 2, 141. 1 2, 126. 4 2, 141. 1 2, 155. 2 2, 175. 9 2, 190. 1 2, 200. 7 2, 216. 6 2, 229. 1 2, 243. 4 2, 268. 2 2, 295. 1 5.4 4.2 4.6 5.9 7.7 7. 1 5. 1 7.2 5.8 4.9 5.4 4.0 .5 -.1 .9 1.6 3.2 5.8 10.7 11.8 5.5 4.3 4.8 6.5 8. 1 8.2 7.4 8.3 6.8 5.8 6.1 48 1.9 1.0 2.3 3.3 5.3 8.2 12.9 14.9 M2 M3 7.0 5.6 12.8 14. 1 10.9 8.3 8.8 9.4 8.3 7.7 7.5 6.8 5.3 6.1 8.0 10. 0 11.0 11.6 13.8 14. 1 11.2 8.5 9.7 11.9 12.4 11.2 9.4 10.5 9.7 9.3 9.3 7.7 6.2 6.8 7.9 9.0 9.3 10.2 12.2 13.5 Nof E.—See page 27 for components. See Federal Reserve Bulletin, February 1980, for details on series. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Beserve System. COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK MEASURES AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Overnight Money Over- market SavDe- Other repurnight chase checkmutual ings Cur- mand Euroagreeable defund Period rency de- 1 dollars shares posits posits deposits ments (RPs) /_ J.\ (net) Q NSA Dec: 1973. 1974. 1975. 1976. 1977. 1978. 1979. Small denomination time deposits 2 Large denomination time deposits 2 NSA NSA NSA NSA 6.8 7.2 7.5 0.0 .0 .0 .0 1.0 2.0 3.6 0. 1 322.2 333.9 383.9 447.7 486.5 10. 3 476. 1 43.6 416.7 266.4 288.9 340.4 396.6 454.9 533.8 656.5 110.9 144.0 129.6 118.0 145.2 194.7 219.4 15.0 21.0 27. 3 30.5 8.4 16.7 13.6 17.6 21.9 21.7 1979: Nov. 105. 9 262. 1 Dec.. 106.3 263.4 16.2 16.7 22.5 21.7 3.2 3.6 40.4 421. 3 43.6 416.7 647.8 656.5 218.5 219.4 1980: Jan.. 107.3 Feb.. 108. 1 Mar. 108.9 Apr__ 109. 0 May. 110. 1 June. 111. 0 July. 112.0 Aug.. 113.4 Sept. 113. 9 Oct__ 115. 1 Nov*. 115. 9 17.3 17.6 18.0 19.0 18.4 19.6 20.8 21. 9 23.2 24. 1 25. 0 22.6 23.0 21.0 17.6 18. 5 19.6 23.0 25. 2 26.4 26. 0 26. 8 4. 1 4. 1 49.1 56.7 60.9 60. 4 66.8 74. 2 80.6 80.7 78.2 77.4 77. 0 661.8 671. 4 687.6 708.3 718.0 719. 6 717. 2 717. 1 720.9 727.9 743. 8 222. 5 228.6 230.7 234. 2 235. 0 230. 7 226.2 225.3 229. 0 232. 2 242. 1 263.5 265.6 264.2 258.6 257.7 260. 3 261.6 266.3 269. 8 271. 6 273. 1 0.3 .4 1.1 2.7 4. 1 3.6 2.7 2. 8 2.9 3.6 3.7 3.7 4.4 4.7 2.3 3.6 3.4 3.8 411.8 403. 1 391.9 377. 3 372.7 381.4 393.8 403.9 407.9 410.4 405. 6 * Net of demand deposits due to foreign commercial banks and official institutions. 2 Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively. NSA 10.3 13.7 22.8 31.9 60.4 63.2 67.3 71.8 76.6 80.6 80.0 49.8 53.4 76.8 80.7 89.5 98.7 127.5 8.5 9.0 12.3 22. 6 28.9 41.9 50. 1 48.1 51.8 63. 1 79,4 97.3 30.5 30.5 34.0 31.9 80.3 80.0 122.1 127.5 28.6 28.9 96.0 97.3 29.9 29.2 27.2 27. 1 27. 1 28. 1 29.3 31.7 30.9 32. 3 32. 6 34. 1 37.5 37.4 37.9 37.8 36.0 35.4 36.0 34. 1 79.2 78.1 76.8 75.2 74.0 73.3 72.8 72.6 73.2 127.6 128.8 136.3 146.3 151.8 148. 6 144. 2 147.2 157.3 28.4 99.0 27.6 99.3 28.8 99.8 29.5 100.6 29.4 99.5 30.2 96.5 30. 1 95.8 29. 6 96.6 31.3 98.5 7.1 8.4 9.0 202.5 207.4 214. 1 2244 239.7 253.9 263.4 61.6 67.8 73.8 80.7 88.7 97.6 106.3 Term Shortrepur- Term term chase Euro- Sav- Treas- Bank- Comagree- dollars ings ury ers' ments (net) bonds secu- accept- mercial (RPs) rities ances paper 4.4 6.7 7.9 4.7 10.7 NOTE.—NSA indicates data are not seasonally adjusted. See also page 26. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of doDars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Installment credit extended Period Total * 1972— 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978_ 1979 „ 1979: Oct Nov Dec 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July_._ w" J Aug SeptA Oct Automobile Revolving Total » Automobile Revolving Net change in amount outstanding Total * Automobile Revolving 152, 275 173, 035 172, 765 180, 441 211, 046 254, 057 298, 351 322, 558 43, 702 49, 606 46, 514 52, 420 63, 743 75, 641 88, 987 91, 847 24, 671 28, 714 33, 225 36, 968 43, 94686, 756 104, 587 120, 728 136, 787 152, 817 163, 276 172, 676 189, 384 218, 794 253, 541 287, 067 38, 081 43, 696 46, 019 49, 444 53, 278 60, 437 69, 430 79, 293 23, 497 26, 711 31, 255 35, 628 41, 776 80, 508 96, 811 112, 449 15, 488 20, 218 9,489 7,765 21, 662 35, 263 44, 810 35, 491 5,621 5,910 495 2,976 10, 465 15, 204 19, 557 12, 554 1,174 2,003 1,970 1, 340 2,170 6,248 7,776 8,279 27, 695 26, 464 25, 671 7,676 7,066 7,131 10, 424 10, 613 10, 196 25, 509 24, 057 24, 322 7,189 6,533 6,449 9,760 9,814 9,764 2,186 2,407 1,349 487 533 682 664 799 432 26, 702 27, 076 26, 620 22, 548 21, 239 20, 698 24, 497 25, 601 27, 308 27, 548 7,780 7,659 7,240 5,725 5,192 4,770 6,609 6,964 7,718 7,632 10, 475 10, 458 11, 038 10, 293 10, 089 9,635 10, 522 10, 652 10, 897 11, 118 25, 330 24, 781 25, 183 24, 533 24, 673 24, 161 25, 106 25, 586 25, 858 26, 083 6,808 6,778 6, 845 6,370 6,535 6,508 6,702 6,790 7,275 7, 142 10, 186 9,883 10,427 10, 681 10, 577 10, 383 10, 508 10, 510 10, 551 10, 651 1,372 2,295 1,437 -1,985 -3,434 -3, 463 -609 15 1,450 1,465 i Includes "mobile home" and "other," not shown separately. Installment credit liquidated 972 881 395 -645 - 1, 343 -1,738 -93 174 443 490 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 289 575 611 -388 -488 -748 14 142 346 467 27 BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS, AND RESERVES Bank credit growth in November was again bolstered by the rapid rise in business lending. Total reserves declined even as borrowings picked up. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 1,400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 1,400 ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 600 AND LEASES 400 400 200 180 160 140 200 180 160 140 INVESTMENT IN OTHER SECURITIES _\ 120 120 INVESTMENT IN -U.S. TREASURY SECURITIE 100 100 \ 80 60 60 40 40 1972 1973 1974 1976 1975 1977 1978 1979 1980 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AVERAGES Of WEDNESDAY FIGURES SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Total loans and investments Period COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Depository institutions 3 All commercial banks l Borrowings (millions of dollars, Reserves Investments Loans and leases unadjusted) CommerU.S. Other SeaReNoncial and Total Total Total 2 industrial secuTreasury sonal borrowed quired securities rities loans 1973: Dec. . 1974: Dec 1975: Dec . 1976: Dec 1977: Dec 1978: Dec 1979: Dec 647. 8 713.6 744.6 8043 891. 1 1, 014. 3 1, 132. 5 460.3 519.9 516.9 554.8 632. 1 747.8 847.2 165.6 197.3 189.8 191.2 211.2 246.5 290.5 58.7 53.7 82.1 100.6 99.5 93.4 93.8 128.8 140.0 145.7 149.0 159.6 173.1 191.5 3498 36.66 3467 3490 36.00 41.16 43.57 33.68 35.94 3454 3485 35.43 40.29 42.10 3468 36.41 3440 3463 35.81 40.93 43. 13 1,298 703 127 62 558 874 1,473 41 32 13 12 54 134 82 1979: Nov Dec 1, 128. 6 1, 132. 5 843.8 847.2 288.3 290.5 943 93.8 190.5 191.5 43.06 43.57 41.15 42.10 42.81 43.13 1,906 1,473 146 82 1, 144. 8 1, 162. 7 1, 165. 2 1, 161. 0 1, 154. 9 1, 152. 0 1, 160. 0 1, 177. 2 „_ 1, 191. 0 1, 204. 5 1, 221. 2 858.5 872.7 874.7 871.6 860.6 853.5 855.0 865.8 876.4 886.2 899.4 295.6 301.1 302.8 301.2 297.7 295.4 296.2 301.4 306.0 312.0 318.4 93.2 948 945 93.2 946 97.0 100.9 1044 106.6 107.9 109.3 193. 1 195.2 196.0 196.2 199.7 201.5 204.2 207.0 208.0 210.3 212.5 43.44 43.35 43.67 4485 4445 43.96 42.78 40.75 41.52 41.73 41.23 42.20 41.70 40.85 42.39 43.43 43.58 42.39 40.09 40.21 40.42 39. 17 43.19 43.14 43.48 4465 4427 43.76 42.50 40.45 41.26 41.52 40.73 1,241 1,655 2,824 2, 455 1,018 380 395 659 1,311 1,335 2,156 75 96 150 155 63 12 7 10 26 67 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June ' .» July Aue Sept Oct 4 Nov V***J » Data are averages of Wednesday figures. loans to commercial banks in the United States. Data are averages of daily figures. Reserves series reflects actual reserve requirement percentages with no adjustment to eliminate the effect of changes in Regulations D and M. Prior to November 13,1980, the date of implementation of the Monetary Control Act, data relate only to member banks, 1 Excludes 3 28 «Data for loans and investments are estimates. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources External *- Credit market funds Total Internal 1 Total Total 1970 1971 1972 1973___ 1974 1975 1976-. 1977 1978 19791979: I II III IV 1980: I II _ Hip Uses ___ __ _ _ 104.4 127. 8 161. 6 200.0 191.3 150.0 209.7 242.3 295.7 341. 3 350.2 323. 3 377. 3 314. 9 315. 4 204.9 258.7 58.9 68.6 80.8 83.8 75.7 106.8 125.3 139.9 148.8 158. 3 154.4 159. 0 161. 6 158. 2 153.7 160. 1 165.7 45.5 59.3 80.8 116.2 115. 6 43.2 84.4 102.3 146.9 183.0 195. 8 164.3 215. 7 156. 7 161.7 44. 9 93. 1 Securities and mortgages 32. 1 41. 1 40. 6 37.0 39. 1 49. 3 48.8 46. 1 49.2 52. 4 48.955. 2 56.2 49.2 56.2 59. 1 61. 8 40.7 45.2 58.2 73.0 82. 1 37.9 60.7 79.9 94.7 114. 3 113.4 123. 9 126. 7 93.0 123.8 64.3 102. 0 1 Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits. 2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and miscellaneous liabilities. Loans and shortterm paper 8.5 4. 1 17. 6 36. 1 43. 0 11 4 11. 9 33.8 45. 6 61.9 64. 5 68.7 70. 5 43. 8 67.7 5.2 40. 3 Other 2 4.9 14. 1 22.6 43. 1 33.4 5. 3 23.8 22.4 52.2 68. 7 82.4 40.4 89.0 63.7 37.9 -19.4 -9.0 Total 95.9 119.6 145.8 185.6 179.0 133.0 183.3 216.8 274. 3 319.4 324.8 294.6 360. 5 298. 3 294.9 109.0 240. 7 Purchase of physical assets 3 Increase in financial assets 80.3 86.0 100.3 123.3 134.7 99.9 139.0 169.9 195.9 221. 3 213. 0 228. 6 226. 6 216. 9 226.0 220.0 209. 1 15.6 33.5 45.6 62.3 44.4 33.2 44.3 46.9 78.3 98.2 111. 8 66. 1 133.9 81.4 68.9 -30.0 31.6 Discrepancy (sources less uses) 8.5 8.2 15.8 14.4 12.2 16.9 26.4 25.5 21.4 21.9 25.5 28.7 16.8 16.6 20.6 14. 9 18.0 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars, except as noted] Current liabilities Current assets End of period Total SEC series:2 492. 3 1970 1971 529. 6 1972 599.3 697.8 1973 1974__ 790. 7 3 FTC-FRB series: 1974 735. 4 1975 759.0 826.8 1976 902. 1 1977_ 1, 030. 0 1978_ 1, 200. 9 1979- Cash Notes U.S. governand Invenment actories securi- counts ties receivable Other current assets Total Notes and accounts payable Other current liabilities Net working capital Current ratio l 50.2 53.3 59.0 66.3 71. 1 7.7 11. 0 10.6 12. 8 12.3 206. 1 221. 1 248.2 288.5 322. 1 193.3 200. 4 225.7 263. 9 313.6 35.0 43.8 55. 8 66.4 71.7 304. 9 326.0 375.6 450. 9 530. 4 211.3 220. 5 282. 9 340. 3 402.3 93. 6 105. 5 92.7 110. 7 128. 1 187. 4 203. 6 223.7 246.9 260. 3 1.615 1.625 1.595 1. 548 1.491 73.2 82. 1 88. 2 95.8 104.5 116. 1 11. 1 19.0 23. 4 17. 6 16.3 15.6 265.8 272. 1 292. 8 324.7 383.8 456.8 319.5 315. 9 342.4 374.8 426.9 501. 7 65.9 69.9 80. 1 89.2 98.5 110. 8 453.4 451. 6 494. 7 549.4 665.5 809. 1 269.8 264. 2 281.9 313.2 373.7 456. 3 183.6 187.4 212. 8 236. 2 291. 7 352.8 282.0 307.4 332. 2 352.7 364.6 391.8 1. 622 1.681 1.672 1. 642 1.548 1.484 1979: I II III IV 1, 081. 0 1, 108. 2 1, 169. 5 1, 200. 9 102.7 100. 1 103.7 116. 1 17. 4 18. 6 15.8 15. 6 408. 1 421. 1 453. 0 456.8 451.4 465.2 489.4 501.7 101.4 103. 2 107. 7 110.8 705.4 724.7 777.8 809. 1 391.3 406. 4 438.8 456.3 314. 1 318.3 339.0 352. 8 375.6 383.5 391.7 391.8 1.532 1.529 1.504 1.484 1980: I II 1, 235. 2 1, 233. 8 110.2 111. 4 15. 1 13. 9 471. 2 464.2 519.5 525. 7 119.3 118.7 838.3 828. 1 467.9 463. 1 370. 4 364.9 397.0 405.7 1.474 1. 490 * Total current assets divided by total current liabilities. * Based on data from Statistics of Income, Department of the Treasury. Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations, Federal Trade Commission. NOTE.—SEC series not available after 1974. 1 See Federal Reserve Bulletin, July 1978, for details regarding the series. Data revised beginning 1976. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Tradt Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission. 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS In December market interest rates moved above their March/April peaks. PERCENT PER ANNUM 14 14 *MARGH 15.526 12 12 10 DISCOUNT RATE FEDERAL RESERVE ^BANK OF _ NEW YORK f TREASURY BILLS I Iii IiIiii I I I I I I I I II .LI I I I I I I I I I 1972 1973 1974 10 v-W CORPORATE Aaa BONDS (MOODY'S) 1977 1976 1975 1978 1979 1980 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW [Percent per annum] U.S. Treasury security yields Period 1974_ 1975 1976 > 1977 1978 1979 1979: Nov Dec 1980: Jan Feb _ Mar Apr May June . July* Aug_ Sept__ _ Oct Nov Week ended: 1980: Nov 15 22 29 Dec 6 13 20 3-month bills1 Constant maturities 2 3-year 10-year High-grade Corporate Prime com- Discount municipal rate mercial Aaa (N.Y. paper, bonds bonds (Standard F.R. 4-6 Bank) 5 & Poor's) 3 (Moody's) months 4 7.886 5.838 4.989 5.265 7.221 10. 041 11. 868 12. 071 12. 036 12. 814 15. 526 14. 003 9. 150 6.995 8. 126 9.259 10. 321 11. 580 13. 888 7.82 7.49 6.77 6.69 8.29 9.71 11.18 10.71 10.88 12.84 14.05 12. 02 9.44 8.91 9.27 10.63 11.57 12.01 13.31 7.56 7.99 7.61 7.42 8.41 9.44 10.65 10.39 10.80 12.41 12.75 11.47 10. 18 9.78 10.25 11. 10 11.51 11.75 12.68 6. 09 6.89 6.49 5.56 5.90 6.39 7.19 7.09 7.21 8. 04 9.09 8.40 7.37 7.60 8.08 8.62 8.95 9. 11 9.55 8.57 8.83 8.43 8.02 8.73 9.63 10.76 10.74 11.09 12.38 12.96 12. 04 10.99 10.58 11.07 11. 64 12. 02 12. 31 12.97 9.87 6.33 5.35 5.60 7.99 4 10. 91 4 13. 26 12.80 12.66 13.60 16.50 14.93 9.29 8.03 8.29 9.61 11. 04 12.32 14.73 13. 514 14. 309 14. 384 14. 649 16. 335 16. 667 12.99 13.33 13. 62 13.77 14. 10 14. 17 12.63 12.69 12.72 12.91 13. 19 13. 18 9.51 9.44 9.61 9.87 10.33 10.46 12.93 12.96 13.03 13. 15 13.47 13.49 14. 12 14.91 15.48 16.05 17.57 17. 49 1 Rate on new issues within period; bank-discount basis. * Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. * Weekly data are Wednesday figures. * Beginning November 1,1979, data are for 6 months paper. *Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 30 Prime rate charged by banks 5 10.81 7.83 7.86 6.25 6.84 5.50 6. 83 5.46 9.06 7.46 12.67 10.28 15^-15/2 12-12 l 15 /^15^ 12-12 12-12 15#-15Ji 12-13 15Ji-16» 13-13 16J4-19X 13-13 19^-19K l 13-12 *18 /r-14 14-12 12-11 12-11 11-10 10-10 11-1 IK 10-11 11/2-13 13/2-14/2 11-11 11-12 14/2-17% 11-11 11-12 12-12 12-13 13-13 13-13 Newhome mortgage yields (FHLBB)« 8.92 9.01 8.99 9.01 9.54 10.77 11.37 11.64 11.87 11.93 12.62 13.03 13.68 12.66 12.48 12.25 12.35 12.61 13.08 15K-15H 15/2-17 17-17% 17^-19 19-20 20-21^ * Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Rates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable witp prior rates. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices generally came down in December from the historical highs registered in the previous month. INDEX, DEC 31, 1965=50 80 INDEX, DEC 31,1965=50 80 70 - 60 50 - 40 10 10 5 - 1980 SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Common stock 5yields (percent) Common stock prices * Period New York Stock Exchange indexes (Dec. 31, 1965=50) » Composite Industrial Transportation 1974. 1975 _. „ 1976—..._ 1977. 1978 1979 1979: Nov. Dec . 1980: JanFeb. Mar AprMay . June July Aue Sept Oct Nov. - _. Week ended: Nov 15 22 29 Dec 6 13 20"___ A J Utility 43.84 45.73 54,46 53.69 53.70 58.32 59.02 61.75 63.74 66.06 59.52 58.47 61.38 65.43 68.56 70.87 73. 12 75.17 78. 15 48.08 50. 52 60.44 57.86 58.23 64.76 66. 45 69.82 72.67 76.42 68.71 66.31 69.39 74.47 78.67 82. 15 84.92 88.00 92.32 31.89 31. 10 39.57 41.09 43.50 47.34 47.61 50.59 52.61 57.92 51.77 48.62 51.07 54.04 59.14 62.48 65.89 70.76 77.23 29.79 31.50 36.97 40.92 39.22 38.21 36.55 37.29 37.08 36.22 33.38 35.29 37.31 38.53 38.77 38. 18 38.77 38.44 38.35 49.67 47. 14 52.94 55.25 56.65 61.42 60.64 63.21 64.22 61.84 54.71 57.32 61.47 65. 16 66.76 67.22 69.33 68.29 67.21 77.03 80.21 80.45 78.53 74.24 75. 71 90.77 95. 10 95.40 93.04 87.58 89. 18 75.01 79.99 81.56 78.90 73.43 74.70 38.26 38.70 38.79 38.00 36.57 37.42 67.36 67.89 67.47 66.51 6470 66.86 * Average of daily closing prices. *8 Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. Includes 30 stocks. «Includes 500 stocks. 5 Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings-price ratios based on prices at end of quarter. Finance Standard & Poor's DowEarningsJones composite Dividendprice price index industrial3 ratio ratio average (1941-43= 10) 4 11.59 4.47 82. 85 759. 37 431 9. 15 802. 49 86.16 8.90 3.77 974.92 102. 01 462 10.79 894.63 98.20 12.03 5.28 96.02 820. 23 13.46 5.47 844. 40 103. 01 5.71 815. 78 103. 6$ 13.77 5.53 836. 14 107.78 5.41 860. 74 116. 87 5.24 115. 34 878. 22 1498 5.87 104.69 803. 56 6.05 102. 97 786. 33 5.77 107. 69 828. 19 13.08 5.39 114. 55 869. 86 5.20 119. 83 909. 79 5.06 123. 50 947. 33 490 126. 51 946. 67 4.80 130. 22 949. 17 463 135. 65 971. 08 962. 30 993. 07 986. 11 968. 57 921. 91 925. 12 133. 79 139. 20 139. 58 136. 28 129. 19 131. 93 4.68 4.54 451 4.63 494 478 NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBT in the first month of fiscal 1981, there was a budget deficit of $17.4 billion, compared to a deficit of $14.6 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 50 50 SURPLUS (+) OR DEFICIT (-) -50 -50 -100 -100 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1978 1977 1979 1980 1981 FISCAL YEARS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OIFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Period Receipts Fiscal year or period: 1970 1971 _ 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Transition quarter . 1977 1978 1979 1980 9 1981 (estimates) : Mid-Session Review, July 1980 * Second Concurrent Resolution, November 20, 1980_ First month: Fiscal year 1980 Fiscal year 1981 1 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1981 Budget, Office of Management and Budget, July 21,1980. 32 Outlays Surplus or deficit ( — ) 193.7 188.4 208.6 232.2 264.9 281.0 300.0 81.8 357.8 402.0 466.0 520.0 196. 6 211.4 232.0 247. 1 269.6 326.2 366.4 94.7 402.7 450. 8 493.6 579.0 -2.8 -23. 0 -23.4 -14.8 -4.7 -45.2 -66.4 -13.0 -45.0 -48.8 -27.7 -59.0 604.0 633.8 -29.8 605. 0 632.4 -27.4 33. 1 38.9 47.7 56. 3 14 6 -17.4 Federal debt ( end of period) Gross Held by the public 382. 6 409. 5 437.3 468.4 486.2 544. 1 631.9 646.4 709.1 780.4 833.8 914.3 284.9 304.3 323.8 343.0 346. 1 396. 9 480.3 498.3 551.8 610. 9 644.6 715. 1 834.0 914.8 646.8 716.9 Sources: Department, of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget except as noted. FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first month of fiscal 1981, budget receipts were $5.8 billion higher than a year earlier and budget outlays were $8.6 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 300 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 300 500 500 OUTLAYS 400 400 300 300 NONDEFENSE 200 200 100 100 _L 1972 _L 1973 1974 1975 _L JL 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 v FISCAL YEARS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND Off ICE OF /MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Outlays Receipts National defense Period Fiscal year or period : 1970 1971. 1972 1973 1974. 1975 1976. _ _ _ Transition quarter 1977. 1978._ 1979. _ _ 1980 T> 1981 (estimates) 1 First month: Fiscal year 1980_ Fiscal year 1981 Total IndiCorpovidual ration income income taxes taxes Other Total 193.7 188. 4 208.6 232. 2 264. 9 281.0 300. 0 81.8 357.8 402.0 466. 0 52Q. 0 604. 0 90.4 86. 2 94.7 103.2 119. 0 122.4 131.6 38.8 157. 6 181.0 217. 8 244. 1 278.2 32.8 26.8 32. 2 36.2 38.6 40. 6 41. 4 8.5 54.9 60. 0 65. 7 64. 6 66.4 70.5 75.4 81.7 92.8 107. 4 118. 0 127.0 34.5 145. 2 161. 1 182.4 211. 4 259.4 196.6 211. 4 232.0 247. 1 269. 6 326.2 366.4 94.7 402.7 450. 8 493.6 579. 0 633.8 78.6 75.8 76.6 74.5 77.8 85.6 89.4 22.3 97. 5 105.2 115. 8 135.9 157.5 77. 1 74.5 75. 1 73.2 77.6 84. 9 87.9 21.9 95.6 103.0 115. 0 132.8 153.9 4.3 4. 1 4.7 4. 1 5.7 6.9 5. 6 2.2 4.8 5.9 5.9 10. 5 10. 3 56. 1 70. 1 81.4 91.8 106.5 136.3 160.9 41.5 176.7 189.9 210. 1 250.3 293.8 18.3 19.6 20.6 22.8 28.0 30.9 34.5 7.2 38.0 44.0 52. 6 64.6 67.6 39.3 41.8 48. 8 53.9 51.6 66.5 76. 1 21.5 85.7 105. 9 109.2 117.8 104. 6 33. 1 38. 9 18. 7 21.2 1. 5 1.3 12.9 16. 5 47.7 56.3 10.4 13. 0 10.2 12.7 1.2 1.0 19. 1 23.8 4. 1 5.3 12.9 13.1 1 Estimates from Mid-Session Review of the 1981 Budget, Office of Management and Budget, July 21,1980. Total Interna- Health Inand Depart- tional terest Othei income ment of affairs security Defense, military Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office oi' Management and Budget. 33 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the third quarter, according to current estimates, Federal receipts rose $20.1 billion (annual rate) and expenditures rose $29.3 billion, yielding a deficit of $58.4 billion, $9.2 billion higher than in the second quarter. (See note below.) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 600 550 - 200 200 150 50 50 SURPLUS £22 ^ £22 ^ I DEFICIT -50 - -100 1972 i! i IHI 1974 1973 \y& \MA Y&$ j^j "l| . m III*M* 1975 ~l - -50 -100 1977 1976 1979 1978 1980 CALENDAR YEARS COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Government receipts Period Federal Government expenditures Subsidies Less: GrantsWage Indirect ContriPurless in-aid Personal Corpocurrent accruals rate business butions chases Trans- to State Net tax and surplus of Total nontax profits tax and less Total of goods fer pay- and interest for tax nontax social inand ments local paid Govern- disreceipts accruals services ment en- burseaccruals surance governterprises ments ments Surplus or deficit (-), national income and product accounts Fiscal year: 1976 313.9 1977 366.0 1978.. . _ 414. 7 483. 7 1979 137. 0 166. 0 186. 3 223. 5 51. 7 59. 1 67. 7 78. 4 24. 3 24. 5 27. 2 29. 4 100. 9 116. 4 133. 5 152. 4 371. 1 411.4 450. 1 493. 6 125. 7 140. 3 150. 7 162. 4 156. 5 169. 6 182. 0 201. 7 57. 6 66. 3 74. 7 79. 3 25. 2 28. 4 33. 1 40. 4 6.2 6. 9 9. 6 9.8 0.0 .0 .0 .0 -57.3 —45. 5 — 35.4 -9. 9 Calendar year: 1976 . 331. 4 1977- « ... 375.4 432. 1 1978 1979 497. 6 475.0 1979: I II — 485. 8 III_. 504. 8 rv... 524.7 1980: I 538. 4 11... 529.9 III*.. 55t>. 0 147. 2 169. 6 194. 9 230. 0 213. 0 223.4 235.2 248.5 246. 1 249.5 256. 2 54. 6 61. 8 72. 0 78. 2 77.2 74.9 79.4 81.4 86.8 65.6 71. 9 23. 4 25. 1 28. 1 30. 0 29. 4 29 9 30.0 30.7 33.8 43.0 48.4 106. 3 118. 9 137. 0 159. 3 155.5 157. 5 160.2 164. 1 171.7 171.8 173. 5 385. 0 421. 7 459. 8 509. 0 486.8 492. 9 516. 1 540.4 561.3 579. 1 608.4 129. 7 144. 4 152. 6 166. 6 163. 6 161. 7 162.9 178.4 186.2 193.3 191.4 161. 7 172. 7 185. 4 209. 8 196.8 201.9 217.6 222.7 230.0 235.7 264. 1 61. 1 67. 5 77. 3 80. 4 77.8 77.7 81.8 84.3 86.0 86.0 87.0 26. 8 29. 0 34. 8 43. 1 40.0 42.6 43.5 46. 2 50.2 54.3 53.8 5. 8 8. 1 9. 7 9. 1 8.3 9.0 10.2 8.8 8.9 9.8 12. 2 .0 .0 .0 .0 -. 2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 — 53. 6 -46. 3 -27. 7 — 11. 4 -11.7 -7.0 -11.3 -15.7 -22.9 -49.2 -58.4 NOTE.—Benchmark revisions will appear in the January 1981 issue of Economic Indicators. 34 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis), Department of the Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget. INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES [1967=100] Industrial production (seasonally adjusted) Period 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 ._ __ 1980: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June __. July.___ Aug *.Sept*__ Oct » Nov * 1 129.8 129. 3 117. 8 130. 5 138.2 146. 1 152.5 152.7 152.6 152. 1 148. 3 144.0 141. 5 140.4 141. 8 143.9 146 5 148. 5 GerFrance many Japan United CanStates ada 143. 0 147.5 139. 6 147. 3 150.5 156. 7 164.0 162.7 162.9 166.0 162.3 158. 9 157.7 157.8 159.2 190.5 183. 1 163. 9 182.0 189. 7 201. 1 217.7 229.0 241. 3 233. 1 236. 9 234.4 232. 1 233. 1 222. 1 231. 1 145 148 139 149 152 154 161 165 166 166 166 160 160 165 165 157 147.7 145. 1 137. 1 149. 1 152.7 155.3 163.2 168 169 169 168 164 163 166 164 Italy 134.6 140.6 127.6 143.5 145. 1 147.9 157.6 167. 8 174.9 174.2 176.6 162.5 167. 1 165. 2 142.7 160. 6 Consumer prices (unadjusted) United United CanGerKing- States l ada Japan France many dom 123.0 120.0 114. 3 117.4 123.0 126.8 131.4 130. 1 128. 4 126.5 123. 7 123.0 124.0 122. 8 118.5 116. 1 Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers. 133. 1 147. 7 161.2 170.5 181.5 195. 4 217.4 233.2 236. 4 239. 8 242.5 244. 9 247. 6 247.8 249. 4 251. 7 253.9 130.3 144.5 160. 1 172. 1 185.9 202.4 221.0 231.3 233. 3 235.8 237.2 240.0 242.7 244.5 246.8 249.0 251.2 147.9 184.0 205. 8 224.9 243.0 252.3 261.3 270.8 273.3 275. 5 280.2 282.7 283.5 284.2 283.7 288. 1 140.7 160.0 178.9 196. 1 214.5 233.9 259. 1 277.2 280. 2 283.4 286.7 289. 3 291. 1 295.5 298.4 301.0 127.2 136. 1 144.2 150.4 155.9 160.2 166.6 171.0 172.8 173.8 174.9 175.6 176.5 176.8 177.0 177.0 177. 3 United Kingdom Italy 134.0 159. 7 186. 8 218. 1 255.2 286.2 328.5 367.9 374.3 378.2 384.3 388.2 391.7 398. 4 402.4 410. 9 417.9 150.2 174.3 216.5 252.4 292.4 316.6 359. 0 394. 1 399.7 405.1 419. 0 422.8 426.8 430. 4 431.3 434. 1 436.8 Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce, Bureau of International Economic Policy and Research, Office of International Economic Research, in International Economic Indicators. U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS (Millions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Merchandise exports 1 Period 2 Food, Crude bever- mate- Manufacages, rials tured Total 2 and to- and bacco fuels goods F.a.s. value 5 Monthly average: 1973 1974 5,902 8, 167 1974 8,167 1975 8,966 1976 9,596 1977. ... 10, 096 19781 1, 965 1979 15, 136 1979: Oct____ 16, 680 Nov 16,928 Dec___ 16, 742 1980: Jan 17, 348 Feb.__ 17, 233 Mar 18, 534 Apr 18, 468 May 17, 678 June 18,642 July. .. 18, 075 Aug 19, 103 Sept. _ . 18, 701 Oct 19, 089 5,811 8,053 1,078 1,269 895 1,317 3,728 5,294 5,790 8,450 8,053 1,269 8,842 1,399 9,456 1,436 9,912 1,330 11,753 1,717 14, 868 2,049 16, 396 2,374 16, 575 2,299 16, 419 2,413 17, 018 2,331 16, 950 2,296 18, 165 2, 538 18, 137 2,410 17, 303 2, 190 18, 267 2,366 17, 765 2,471 18, 788 2,489 18, 400 2, 779 18, 660 2,690 1,317 1,266 1,341 1,548 1,746 2,351 2,534 2,686 2,732 2,854 2,826 2,991 2,867 2,816 2,921 2,821 3, 181 2, 782 2, 506 5, 294 5,913 6,437 6, 679 7,873 9,715 10, 444 10, 418 10, 719 11, 173 11, 373 11, 802 11, 745 11, 612 12, 277 12, 015 12, 477 12, 277 12, 609 8,387 8, 048 10, 084 12, 307 14, 332 17, 194 19, 037 18, 548 19; 665 20, 938 21, 640 20, 589 19, 257 20, 439 19, 893 18, 995 19, 236 19, 465 20, 061 1 Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginning January 1978. t T0ot& l includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. 1 1 arnv als of imported goods other than intransit shipments. 4 I . ? C.i.f. (cost, insurance, and freight) import value at first port of entry in tht L lined States. Data for 1973 are estimates. trade 3 Domestic exports Total domestic and foreign Total exports Merchandise balance General imports ExExports ports (f.a.8.) Food, Crude less (f.a.8.) Total bever- mate- Manuimfacless rials (c.i.f. ages, imtured value) * ports and to- and goods ports (cusbacco fuels toms (f.a,s.) value) Customs value Merchandise imports 770 892 F.a.s. 892 827 991 1, 186 1,312 1,478 1, 404 1, 689 1,712 1,652 1,406 1,544 1,503 1, 531 1,584 1,600 1,468 1,402 1, 592 1, 120 2,653 value 5 2,672 2,716 3,457 4,463 4,325 5,954 7,479 6,379 7,775 7,590 8,788 8,421 7,284 7,774 7,834 6,655 7,043 6,667 7, 120 3,750 4,684 6, 131 9,033 112 -283 -221 Exports (f.a.8.)less imports (e.i.f.) -229 -866 —866 4,602 9, 033 -283 —221 312 918 8,654 4, 257 853 5, 398 10, 825 —581 —488 —1, 229 6,379 13, 130 —2, 297 —2,211 —3, 034 8,360 15, 258 -2, 473-2, 367 -3,293 9,353 18, 244 -2, 125 -2, 057 -3, 108 -2, 357 -3,469 9,663 20, 149 -1,620 -2, 732 9,950 19, 660 -2, 923 -4, 068 9,632 20, 809 -3, 590 -4, 752 11, 183 22, 100 -4,407 -5,573 10, 829 22, 806 -2, 054 -3, 138 10, 176 21, 673 -788 -1,816 9,969 20, 284 -2, 762 -3,852 10, 628 21, 530 -1,251 -2, 280 9,951 20, 922 -920 -1,852 10, 187 19, 927 -132 -1,061 10, 192 20, 165 -764 -1,644 10, 485 20, 345 -972 -1,861 10, 611 20, 949 * F.a.s. (free alongside ship) value basis: at U.S. port of exportation for exports and at foreign port of exportation for imports. NOTE.—Data beginning 1975 not strictly comparable with earlier data. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS The current account was in surplus by $4.9 billion in the third quarter, after a $2.4 billion deficit in the second quarter. BjLUONS OF DOLLARS 10 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 10 BALANCE ON CURRENT ACCOUNT -15 ; SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted] Merchandise Period Exports 1972— 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 Imports Investment income8 12 Net Vial. UcwL— n n AA cvi-ll/c Receipts Payments 49, 381 — 55, 797 — 6,416 14, 764 — 6, 572 71,410 -70,499 911 98, 306 — 103, 649 — 5, 343 -98, 041 9, 047 107, 088 114, 745 — 124 051 9 306 151, 689 — 30*873 120, 816 142, 054 — 175, 813 33 759 182, 055 — 211, 524 — 29^ 469 21, 808 -9, 655 27, 587 — 12, 084 25, 351 — 12, 564 29 286 — 13, 311 32, 587 — 14, 598 42, 972 — 22, 073 65, 970 — 33,460 "Mot li tJU Net military transactions Nettravel and transportation receipts Other services, net 8 Balance on goods and serv-l ices Remittances, pensions, __ j and other uni— la t-oi+01*4)1 i/ci «*i transfers 1 Balance on current account — 1, 275 — 3, 063 — 3, 158 — 3, 18 — 2, 792 — 2 558 — 3*293 — 3 188 — 2, 695 2, 766 — 1, 941 — 3, 854 -5,795 7, 140 3, 184 11, 021 -3,881 2, 124 9, 309 — 7, 186 3, 986 4, 598 22, 893 —4, 613 18, 280 4, 384 9, 382 —4, 998 4, 711 5, 086 — 9*, 464 —4! 605 -14,068 — 14 259 5 959 — 9, 204 — 5, 055 _788 5| 806 4,' 878 — 5| 666 8, 192 12, 153 15, 503 12, 787 15, 975 17^ 989 20, 899 32, 510 — 3, 420 — 2, 070 — 1 653 -746 559 1, 628 886 1978: IIIIV-- 36, 828 -44, 336 -7, 508 10, 557 -5,717 38, 900 -45, 715 -6,815 12, 851 -6,343 4,840 6,508 139 3 -910 -774 1,506 -1,933 -1,233 -3, 166 -820 493 -1,313 1,571 1979:I-_II— 41, 805 42, 815 47, 198 50, 237 7,038 7,270 9,319 8,883 -29 -102 -443 -700 -611 -637 -834 -613 1,448 1,428 1,524 1,405 , 1980: I_— 54, 708 -65, 558 -10,850 20, 846 -10,752 54, 710 -62,215 -7,505 16, 641 -10,508 56, 288 -59, 116 -2, 828 19, 113 -10,646 10, 094 6,133 8,467 -922 -944 -632 -690 -296 -248 -798 -1,812 -2, 610 1,570 1,557 -1, 105 -1,326 -2, 431 4,900 6,377 -1,477 1,618 IIIIV.- II— III". 1 Excludes 3 -46, 919 -5, 114 14, 263 -7,225 -50,885 -8, 070 15, 250 -7,980 -54,258 -7, 060 18, 050 -8, 731 -59,462 -9,225 18, 407 -9, 524 military grants. Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. * Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. 36 2,732 -110 2,506 -250 1,408 -1,324 -1,383 -1,493 1,099 -1,407 -1,552 -1,802 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued the third quarter, capital outflows fell by $5.5 billion dollars, to a rate of $20.2 billion. Recorded capital inflows Kcreased by $3.1 billion, to a rate of $11.0 billion. The statistical discrepancy, which had soared to over $20 billion in the second quarter, was sharply reduced. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 -10 -20 -30 -40 1972 1980 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] U.S. assets abroad, net [increase/capital outflow ( — )] Period Total 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 _4 - 14, 497 22 874 158 -34,745 -1,467 -39,703 849 -51,269 -2,558 35 793 -375 732 61 191 -61,774 1 133 -9,977 1978- III IV___ -30,418 1979: I !!___ III___ IV U.S. official reserve assets l 2 115 182 Other U.S. Government assets U.S. private assets 1 568 -2,644 366 -3,474 4 214 -3,693 -4, 644 3 783 12 925 20 388 -33,643 -35, 380 44 498 -31,725 -57, 279 -56,858 Foreign assets in the U.S., net [increase/capital inflow ( + )P Total Foreign official - assets 21, 461 10, 475 6,026 18, 388 34, 241 10, 546 7,027 15, 670 17, 693 36, 518 36, 575 50, 741 33, 293 64, 096 37, 575 -14,271 1 386 -8, 706 17, 069 991 -29,609 28, 048 4,777 18, 368 -7, 768 -3, 585 -1, 102 -3, 081 2, 201 -8, 744 991 322 -15, 300 14 631 6,407 -10,095 -25,215 2,779 5,789 -766 -27, 228 24, 941 -13,492 649 -925 -11, 918 4,025 -1,221 A980: I -12,711 P II.... -25, 712 W III *>_ -20, 196 -3,268 502 -1, 109 -1,467 -7, 976 7, 194 1 191 25 023 7,949 -1^320 -17,767 11, 003 » Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDK), convertible currencies, and the2 U.S. reserve position in the IMF. Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. -7, 215 7,775 8, 025 Other foreign assets 10, 986 12, 362 23, 696 8, 643 18, 826 14, 167 30, 804 51, 845 Statistical discrepancy Allocations of special drawing rights (SDR) 710 1, 139 12, 292 9? 680 10, 945 16, 502 19, 152 5,246 1, 139 14, 409 174 2,978 1, 152 U.S. official reserve assets, Of Total net 1 which : (unad(sum of Seasonal justed, the adjust- end of items with sign ment period) reversed) discrepancy -1,879 -2, 654 -1,620 5,753 10, 367 -880 11, 354 23, 848 13, 151 14, 378 15, 883 16, 226 18, 747 19, 312 18, 650 18, 956 -3, 926 -2, 850 1, 998 3, 190 74 3,020 1, 167 10, 385 —825 -3,641 2,400 11, 269 18, 850 18, 650 21, 655 21, 268 18, 557 18, 956 -99 6,975 1,460 20, 194 4,293 -4, 022 21, 491 21, 943 22, 994 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury. Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING Page Gross National Product ...................................................................................... Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars ......................................................................... Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product .............................................................. Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures ...... ......... . ..................................................... Nonfinancial Corporate Business— Output, Costs, and Profits ...................................................... National Income ...................................................................... . ..................... Personal Consumption Expenditures .................................................................. . ........ Sources of Personal Income ........................ ........................................................... Disposition of Personal Income ........................... . .................................................... Farm Income .............. ..... ............................ .... ...... ..... ..... . .......... . . ............... Corporate Profits ............................... ............................................................. Gross Private Domestic Investment ......................................................... . .................. Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment—Nonfarm Business ................................................... 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force ............................ ........................................................ Selected Unemployment Rates . ............................................................................... Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs ....................................... Nonagricultural Employment ................................................................................. Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries ........................ ............ Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries ..................................................... Productivity and Related Data, Private Business Sector .......................................................... 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization .......... ........................................................ Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures .............................. * ...... ...... New Construction .............................................. ............................................. New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates ....................................................................... Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade ................................................................ Manufacturers* Shipments, Inventories, and Orders ................................................. . ............ 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices ............................................................................................. Consumer Prices ........... . .............................................................................. Changes in Producer Prices .......................................................................... ...... Changes in Consumer Prices ............................................ . .......... . ....................... Prices Received and Paid by Farmers ..... ........................................................... _____ . 22 il IN i4 25 *. * .. ... ..... MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stocks Measures and Liquid Assets ....... . .............................................................. Components of Money Stock Measures and Liquid Assets ........................................................ Consumer Installment Credit ................................................................................. Bank Loans and Investments, and Reserves ..................................................................... Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business .............................................. Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations ....................................................... Interest Rates and Bond Yields ................................................................................ Common Stock Prices and Yields .......................................................................... 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 .... FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt .................................................................. Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlavs by Function ..... ........................................ Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis ................................................................. . Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries ............................................ U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports ........................................................................ U.S. International Transactions ..................................................... ... ....... . ...... . 32 33 34 ........ ........ 35 35 36 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, B.C. 20402 Price $2.00 (single copy). Subscription price: $17.00 per year; $21.25 for foreign mailing. OQ ^° U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1980 O—70-735