Full text of Economic Indicators : December 1966
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89th Congress, 2nd Session 6 4 Economic Indicators December 1966 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1966 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas, Chairman PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES RICHARD BOLLING (Missouri) HALE BOGGS (Louisiana) HENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin) MARTHA W. GRIFFITHS (Michigan) THOMAS B. CURTIS (Missouri) WILLIAM B. WIDNALL (New Jersey) ROBERT F. ELLSWORTH (Kansas) SENATE JOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama) J. W. FULBRIGHT (Arkansas) WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) HERMAN E. TALMADGE (Georgia) JACOB K. JAVITS (New York) JACK MILLER (Iowa) LEN B. JORDAN (Idaho) JAMES W. KNOWLES, Executive Director JOHN R. STARK, Deputy Director , Financial Clerk HAMILTON D. GEWEHR, Administrative Clerk COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS GARDNER ACKLEY, Chairman JAMES S. DUESENBERRY ARTHUR M. OKUN Economic Indicators prepared under supervision of FRANCES M. JAMES [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [SJ. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators/' and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts draum by Graphics Unit, Office of the Secretary^ Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at 2 5 cents a single copy or by subscription at $2.50 per year (foreign, $3.50) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 Subscribers who wish to receive it at an earlier date after release may take advantage of provisions for airmail subscriptions. The domestic airmail subscription price is $5.40 per year. The 1964 Supplement to Economic Indicators, which describes each series and gives annual data for years not shown in the monthly issues, is available at 65 cents a copy. TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING THE NATION'S INCOME, EXPENDITURE, AND SAVING Gross national product rose by $12.3 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter, according to current estimates. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Government Persons Period Total J 1958 _______ 1959 _______ 1960 ______ 1961 ______ 1962 ______ 1963 ______ 1964 ______ 1965 ______ 1964: IV_. 1965: !_._ 1966: !___ II.. III. 318.8 337. 3 350. 0 364. 4 385.3 404 6 436. 6 469. 1 446. 6 453. 2 461. 0 476. 2 486. 1 495. 1 499. 9 507.8 Less: Equals: Personal Interest Total consumption paid and excludexpending transfer interest itures payand ments to fortransfers eigners 6.5 7. 1 7.8 8. 1 8. 6 9.7 10. 7 11.9 11. 2 11.4 11.8 12. 1 12.4 12. 7 13. 2 13.5 312. 3 330.3 342.3 356. 3 376. 6 394.9 425.8 457.2 435.4 441.8 449. 2 464. 1 473. 7 482.4 486.7 494.3 290. 1 311. 2 325.2 335. 2 355. 1 375. 0 401. 4 431.5 408.8 418.9 426.8 435.0 445. 2 455. 6 460. 1 469.9 PerLess: sonal Less: Tax saving Trans- Equals: Transand Purfers, Total Equals: fers, (+) or nontax interest, Net expend- interest, chases disand receipts itures saving receipts and of goods sub- 2 or sub- 2 and accruals sidies services sidies 114. 7 128. 9 139.8 144. 6 157. 0 168. 8 174. 2 189. 0 178.2 186.4 188.5 188. 6 192. 6 203. 1 209. 6 215.9 22. 3 19. 1 17. 0 21. 2 21. 6 19. 9 24. 5 25.7 26.6 22.8 22. 4 29. 0 28. 5 26. 7 26. 6 24.5 33.0 34.0 36.5 41.3 42.8 44. 4 46. 7 49. 6 46.7 48. 5 48.0 51.9 50. 0 53.4 53. 2 56.3 81. 6 95.0 103.3 103. 3 114. 2 124. 3 127. 5 139.4 131.5 137.9 140.5 136.7 142. 6 149. 7 156.4 159.6 127. 2 131. 0 136. 1 149. 0 159. 9 166. 9 175. 6 185. 8 176. 2 180. 1 182.4 189. 6 191. 1 198. 4 202. 2 211.9 33.0 34.0 36.5 41.3 42.8 44. 4 46. 7 49.6 46.7 48.5 48.0 51.9 50. 0 53.4 53. 2 56.3 94. 2 97.0 99.6 107.6 117. 1 122. 5 128.9 136.2 129. 4 131.6 1343 137.7 141. 2 145. 0 I 149. 0 155.5 Surplus (+) or deficit (-) on income and product account — 12.5 -2. 1 3.7 -4.3 -2.9 1.8 — 1.4 3. 2 2. 1 6. 4 6. 1 -1.0 1. 4 47 7.3 4.0 International Business Period Expenditures Net receipts Disposable personal income Total Net Net exports of goods StatisGross Gross Gross Excess transfers and services Excess of income tical national retained private of to foror discrep- product transfers earn-j domestic invest- eigners or (+) or receipts ancy by permgs invest-4 ment of net expendment sons and Less: Equals: exports iture Net Govern- Exports Imports exports ment 1958 _____ 1959 _____ 1960 _____ 1961 _____ 1962 _____ 1963 _____ 1964 _____ 1965 _____ 1964: IV_ 1965: !__ 1966: III. 49.4 56.8 56.8 58.7 66.3 68.8 76.9 83.4 77.9 82. 6 82. 3 83. 8 85. 1 86.6 87.4 88.0 60. 9 75.3 74 8 71.7 83.0 87. 1 93.0 106. 6 97.4 103.8 103. 7 106. 7 111. 9 1145 118. 5 115.0 -11. 5 -18.5 -18.0 -13.0 -16. 8 -18.4 -16. 0 -23. 1 -19. 5 -21. 2 -21. 4 -22. 9 -26.8 -27.9 -31. 1 -27.0 2. 4 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2. 7 2. 6 3. 1 2.8 2.5 3.4 2.9 3.1 23. 1 23.5 27. 2 28.6 30.3 32.3 37.0 39.0 38. 1 35. 1 40. 5 40. 1 40.3 41.7 41. 9 43.4 * Personal income (p. 5) less personal taxes and nontax payments (fines, penalties, etc.). 2 Government transfer payments to persons, foreign net transfers by Government, net interest paid By government, and subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises. s Undistributed corporate profits, corporate inventory valuation adjustment, capital consumption allowances, and wage accruals less disbursements. Does not include retained earnings of unincorporated business, which are included in disposable personal income. 20. 9 23.3 23. 2 23. 0 25. 1 26. 4 28. 5 32. 0 29. 6 28.7 32.3 33.0 34.2 35. 6 37. 3 39.2 4 2.2 .1 40 5. 6 5. 1 5.9 8. 5 7. 0 8.6 6.4 8.2 7. 1 6. 1 6.0 47 4.2 0. 2 2. 3 -1.7 -3.0 -2.5 -3. 1 -5. 7 -4 2 -5.9 -3.8 -5. 1 -42 -3.5 -2.6 -1. 8 -1. 1 445. 8 484 5 504 8 520.8 559. 8 590. 8 633. 1 682.8 647.5 664 9 675. 0 687.3 704 0 722. 0 733. 2 745. 0 1.6 -.8 -1. 0 -. 8 .5 -.3 -1. 4 -1.6 -3.3 -4 1 -2, 1 -. 8 .4 -.3 447.3 483.7 503.7 520. 1 560. 3 590. 5 631.7 681. 2 644 2 660.8 672.9 686.5 704 4 721.2 732. 3 744.6 Private business investment, purchases of capital goods by private nonprofit institutions, and residential housing. fi Net foreign investment with sign changed. NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning I960. Source: Department of Commerce. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OR EXPENDITURE According to current estimates, gross national product on a seasonally adjusted basis increased 1% percent in the third quarter. After adjustment for price changes, the increase was about 1 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF' DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 700 700 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT 600 600 500 500 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES^ 400 400 300 300 GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES I 100 1__ 100 „„„.„„„„„ J „„„„„„••..••••«•»""""" GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT NET EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES-. 1960 1961 1962 1963 1965 1964 SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1964: IV 1965: I II III IV 1966: I II__.III COUNCIL Or eCONQMtC ADVW«S Total Personal Gross congross Total private sump- domestic national gross tion product national investin 1958 product expend- ment prices itures Billions <sf dollars; quarterly Period _ 438. 0 446.1 452.5 447.3 475.9 487.7 497. 2 529.8 551.0 580. 0 614.4 587.2 600. 3 607.8 618. 2 631.2 640.5 643. 5 649.3 398. 0 419.2 441.1 447.3 483.7 503.7 520. 1 560. 3 590. 5 631. 7 681. 2 644 2 660.8 672. 9 686. 5 704. 4 721. 2 732.3 744.6 254. 4 266.7 281.4 290. 1 311. 2 325. 2 335.2 355. 1 375.0 401. 4 431. 5 408. 8 418. 9 426. 8 435.0 445. 2 455. 6 460. 1 469.9 67. 4 70. 0 67.8 60. 9 75. 3 748 71.7 83. 0 87. 1 93.0 106. 6 97.4 103. 8 103. 7 106.7 111. 9 114 5 118.5 115.0 iThis category corresponds closely with budget expenditures for national defense, shown on p. 35. 2 Gross national product in current prices divided by gross national product in 1958 prices. 1966 Government jpurchases of good s and Implicit services price Federal deflator State for total Total and GNP, Total National defense1 Other local 1958= 1002 data at £>easonall y ad justeid annual rates Net exports of goods and services 74 2 78.6 86.1 94 2 . 1 97. 0 40 99.6 5. 6 107. 6 5. 1 117. 1 5. 9 122. 5 8. 5 128.9 7.0 136.2 8.6 129.4 6.4 131.6 8.2 134 3 7. 1 137. 7 6. 1 141. 2 6. 0 145.0 4 7 149. 0 4.2 155.5 2.0 40 5.7 2.2 44 1 45. 6 49.5 53. 6 53.7 53. 5 57.4 63. 4 642 65.2 66.8 64 1 64 4 65.6 67. 5 69. 8 71.9 74 0 78.3 38. 6 40.3 442 45. 9 46. 0 44 9 47. 8 51. 6 50. 8 50.0 50. 1 48.5 48.2 49. 1 50. 7 52. 5 54 6 57. 1 61.3 5.5 5.3 5.3 7.7 7.6 8.6 9.6 11. 8 13. 5 15.2 16. 7 15. 6 16.2 16. 5 16.8 17.3 17.4 16. 9 17.0 30. 1 33. 0 36.6 40. 6 43. 3 46. 1 50. 2 53.7 58. 2 63. 7 69. 4 65.3 67.3 68.7 70.2 71.4 73. 1 75.0 77.2 NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. Source: Department of Commerce. 90. 9 94 0 97.5 100. 0 101. 6 103.3 104 6 105.8 107.2 108. 9 110. 9 109. 7 110. 1 110.7 111. 0 111. 6 112. 6 113.8 114.7 NATIONAL INCOME National income rose $10 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter, according to revised estimates. Employee compensation rose more than $10 billion and net interest another $% billion. Other forms of noncorporate income edged upward except farm proprietors' income which dropped almost $1 billion. Corporate profits before taxes and inventory valuation adjustment dropped about $1 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 600 600 TOTAL NATIONAL INCOME 500 500 400 400 COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES 300 300 PROPRIETORS' AND RENTAL INCOME • CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT 100 100 iiHitiiMMiiiiiuiMti * v i NET INTEREST 1960 1962 1961 SOURC& DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1964 1963 1965 1966 *SEE NOTE, PAGE 7. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1964: IV 1965: I II III IV 1966: I II III Total national income 331. 0 350. 8 366. 1 367. 8 400. 0 414.5 427. 3 457.7 481.9 517.3 559.0 528. 5 543. 3 552.2 562.7 577.8 595. 7 604. 1 613.8 Compen- Proprieto rsj income of employees 1 Farm2 224. 5 243. 1 256. 0 257.8 279. 1 294. 2 302.6 323.6 341.0 365. 7 392. 9 375. 3 381.7 387.8 395.6 406. 5 419.6 427.9 438.3 11. 4 11.4 11. 3 13.4 11.4 12.0 12.8 13.0 13. 1 12.0 15.1 11.9 12.9 15.5 16.0 16.0 17.0 16.3 15.4 2* Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 4.) Excludes farm profits of corporations engaged in farming and therefore differs from net farm income (including net inventory change) on p. 6 which includes such profits. Business and professional 30. 3 31.3 32.8 33. 2 35. 1 34. 2 35. 6 37. 1 37.9 39.9 40. 7 40.3 40.5 40.4 40.7 41. 1 41.4 41.6 41.9 Rental income of per- 13.9 14.3 14. 8 15. 4 15. 6 15.8 16. 0 16.7 17. 1 17. 7 18.3 17.9 18. 1 18. 3 18.4 18. 5 18.7 18.8 18.9 Net interest 4. 1 4. 6 5. 6 6. 8 7. 1 8.4 10.0 11.6 13.8 15.5 17.8 16.3 16.9 17.5 18. 1 18.7 19. 1 19. 6 20.2 Corporalbe profits and inventory va] uation ad justment * Total 46.9 46. 1 45. 6 41. 1 51.7 49.9 50.3 55.7 58.9 66.6 74.2 66.8 73.2 72. 7 74. 0 76.9 80.0 79. 9 79. 1 Profits Inventory before valuation taxes 3 adjustment 48. 6 48. 8 47. 2 41.4 52. 1 49.7 50.3 55. 4 59. 4 67.0 75.7 67.7 74 5 74.5 75.0 78.7 82.7 82.8 81.9 «See Note, p. 7. NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. Source: Department of Commerce. -1.7 -2.7 -1.5 —.3 ""~~ . O .2 —.i .3 — .5 —.4 -1.5 —.9 -1.3 -1.8 -1.0 -1.8 -2.8 -2.9 -2.8 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $3% billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in November. Wage and salary disbursements, up $2 billion, and interest income and transfer payments, each up $Vk billion, were the primary sources of the rise. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 600 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS .600 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 500 500 400 400 WAGE AND SAURY DISBURSEMQ^TS \j... »—•-»••**• ' —— 300 OTHER INCOME \ . 30d .„.««'" milHMMHM""'"1*" 100 100 TRANSFER PAYMENTS L 0. I960 1961 1962 1963 SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Total personal income 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1965: Oct Nov Dec 1966: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July__. Aug Sept Oct .p_ _ Nov 351. 1 361.2 383.5 401.0 416.8 442.6 465.5 496.0 535. 1 547. 2 553.2 558. 2 560. 2 564. 7 569. 0 570. 5 573. 0 577. 2 580. 0 585.4 590.0 594.4 597. 6 '1965 1966 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Wage Rental Other Propriet<3rs' income income and Transfer Divi- Persona] salary labor 2 Business interest payof dends disburseincome Farm and pro- persons income ments ments l fessional 238.7 11.3 9.5 32.8 14.8 11.7 21.4 17.6 239.9 9.9 13.4 33.2 15.4 11.6 18.9 25.7 258.2 11.3 11.4 35. 1 15.6 12.6 20.7 26.6 12.0 12.0 34.2 270.8 13.4 15.8 23.4 28.5 12.7 278. 1 12.8 35.6 16.0 13.8 25.0 32.4 13.9 296. 1 13.0 15.2 37. 1 16.7 27.7 33.3 311. 1 149 13. 1 37. 9 17. 1 16. 5 31.4 35.3 12. 0 333. 6 16. 6 39. 9 17.3 17.7 34 6 36. 8 358. 4 18. 5 15. 1 18. 3 19. 2 40. 7 38. 4 39. 7 19. 2 366. 9 15. 8 40. 8 18. 5 39.4 20.0 39.8 371.4 19.4 16. 0 41. 1 18. 6 20. 2 39.7 40.3 374 1 19. 6 16. 2 41.3 18. 6 41. 4 20. 5 40. 0 19.8 16.8 376.8 41. 3 18. 6 42. 3 20. 8 40. 5 20. 0 380. 1 41. 3 17. 0 18.7 21. 0 42. 6 41. 0 382. 9 20.2 17. 3 41.5 18.7 20. 9 41. 4 42. 9 384 7 20. 4 16.7 21. 0 42. 6 41.5 18.7 41.8 387. 0 20. 6 41. 6 16. 3 21. 2 18.8 42. 1 42.5 390. 5 20. 7 15. 9 41. 7 21. 1 18.8 42. 3 43. 2 393. 7 20. 9 41. 8 15. 5 21. 1 18. 9 42. 6 43. 5 15.4 21. 1 397.0 41.9 18.9 21.0 43. 1 45. 1 21.3 15.3 399.5 42.0 19.0 21.2 46.0 43.8 21.5 42. 1 15.1 19.0 21.2 402.3 47.2 44.3 21. 7 404 4 42. 2 21. 2 149 19. 1 44 8 47. 8 1 Compensation of employees (see p. 3) excluding employer contributions for social insurance and wage accruals less disbursements. 2 Employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; compensatii msation for injuries; directors' fees; military reserve pay; and a few other minor items. 1964 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance Nonagricultural personal income 3 6.7 6.9 7.9 9.3 9.6 336.6 344.3 368.5 385.2 400.0 425.5 448. 1 479. 7 515. 6 526. 9 532. 6 537. 2 538. 8 543. 0 547. 0 549. 1 551. 9 556. 5 559. 8 565.4 570. 1 574.6 578.0 10.3 11. 8 12. 5 13. 2 13.3 13. 5 13. 6 16.8 16. 9 16. 9 17. 0 17. 1 17. 2 17. 9 18.1 18.2 18.3 18. 4 3 Personal income exclusive of net income of unincorporated farm enterprises, farm wages, agricultural net interest, and net dividends paid by agricultural corporations. NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. Source: Department of Commerce. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income in the third quarter maintained its strong pace of the last year by adding $11.7 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate). Another sharp rise in personal tax payments moderated the increase in disposable income/ hence, the gain in personal outlays led to a significantly lower saving rate of 4.8 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 550 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 550 500 500 450 450 400 400 DOLLARS 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1960 j 1961 SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Per cap ita disL ^ss: Perse nal outlawts posable personal Equals: Persoilal consul nption Equals: incc>me Disex penditure s 2 Personal Total posable saving Current personal personall Durable Non1958 income outlays durable Services prices prices goods Personal income Less : Personal taxes 333.0 351.1 361.2 383.5 401.0 416.8 442.6 465. 5 496. 0 535. 1 39.8 42.6 42.3 46.2 50.9 52.4 57.4 60. 9 59. 4 66. 0 293.2 308.5 318.8 337.3 350.0 364.4 385. 3 404. 6 436. 6 469. 1 1964: IV.. 507. 5 1965: I... 518. 0 527.6 II... III.. 541. 9 IV.. 552. 8 1966: ! _ _ _ 564.6 II— 573. 5 III.. 585.2 60. 9 64. 9 66. 6 65. 7 66. 7 69. 5 73.6 77.4 446. 6 453.2 461. 0 476. 2 486. 1 495. 1 499. 9 507.8 Period 1956 1957 1958 1959 I960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 Billions of dollars 272. 6 129. 3 38.9 98.5 40.8 287.8 135.6 105.0 296.6 37.9 140.2 112.0 44.3 318.3 146.6 120.3 45.3 333.0 151.3 128.7 44.2 343.3 155.9 135. 1 162. 6 363.7 49.5 143.0 53. 9 152. 4 384. 7 168.6 412. 1 59. 4 178. 9 163. 1 190. 6 443.4 66. 1 174. 8 Seaso nally adjiisted annilal rates 182. 4 58.9 420. 0 167. 5 430.3 65. 1 184.5 169. 3 64. 4 189. 4 438. 6 173. 0 66.7 447. 1 176. 9 191. 4 68.0 197. 0 457. 6 180. 2 70.3 201. 9 468. 4 183. 4 67. 1 205. 6 473. 3 187. 4 70.2 483.3 208. 1 191.5 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers, and personal transfer payments to foreigners. 2 See p. 2 for total personal consumption expenditures. Saving as percent of Population disposable (thoupersonal sands) income (percent) 20.6 20.7 22.3 19.1 17.0 21.2 21.6 19. 9 24.5 25.7 Dol lars 1,839 1,743 1,844 1,801 1,831 1,831 1,905 1,881 1,937 1,883 1,983 1,909 2,064 1,968 2,136 2,013 2,272 2,116 2,411 2,214 7.0 6.7 7.0 5.6 4.9 5.8 5.6 4.9 5. 6 5.5 168, 221 171,274 174, 141 177, 073 180, 684 183,756 186, 656 189,417 192,120 194,572 26.6 22. 8 22. 4 29.0 28. 5 26. 7 26.6 24.5 2,312 2,339 2,373 2,443 2,486 2,525 2,543 2,576 6.0 5. 0 4. 9 6. 1 5. 9 5.4 5. 3 4.8 193,196 193,731 194,268 194,898 195,543 196,082 196, 585 197, 124 2,140 2,162 2,181 2,241 2,270 2,287 2,278 2,294 NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. Sources: Department of Commerce and Council of Economic Advisers. FARM INCOME Farm income, including inventory change, fell $1 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter. ever, excluding inventory change, there was little change from the high level of the second quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS How- BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 50 50 REALIZED GROSS FARM INCOME 40 40 30 30 NET FARM INCOME INCLUDING NET INVENTORY CHANGE 20 20 10 1960 1963 1962 1961 1964 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Personal income re ceived by total i'arm popu lation ]ncome re ceived fro m farmingT Realize d gross Period From all sources 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965.-1964: IV 1965: I II III IV 1966: I II III 17.7 19. 5 18.1 18.7 19.0 19.2 18. 7 17.9 20.6 From From farm nonfarm sources sources 11.0 12.8 11. 0 11.4 12. 1 12. 2 12. 0 11. 1 13.7 6.6 6.7 7.0 7.2 6.9 7.0 6. 7 6.7 6.8 Cash receipts l from Total marketings Billions <jf dollars 34. 0 29.7 37.9 33. 5 37. 5 33. 5 37. 9 34. 0 39. 6 34. 0 41. 0 36.2 37.2 42. 1 42.3 36. 9 44.9 39. 2 Seas omilly ad 42. 2 30. 7 37. 3 42. 9 45. 4 39. 7 45. 5 39. 7 45.9 40.0 42.2 48.4 42. 2 48. 7 43.0 49.8 1 Gash receipts from marketings, Government payments, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year. Also, see footnote 2, p. 3. s Based on 1959 Census of Agriculture definition of a farm. The number of farms Is held constant within a year. 1966 1965 Net t<3 farm oper ators Net inc ome per farm incl ruding net inventory change 3 Production ex- Exclud- Includpenses ing net in- ing net in- Current 1965 ventory ventory2 prices prices 4 change change Dol lars 10.7 23.3 25.2 12.7 11.4 26. 1 26.2 11. 7 27. 0 12. 6 12. 5 28. 5 29. 6 12. 5 29. 4 12. 9 14.2 30.7 usted aminal rates 13.0 29. 2 30. 0 12.9 30.8 14.6 30. 9 14.6 31.2 14.7 31.9 16. 5 32.5 16. 2 33.8 16.0 11.3 13. 5 11. 5 12. 0 12.9 13. 1 13. 1 12. 1 15. 2 2,590 3, 189 2,795 3,043 3,389 3, 562 3,671 3,479 4,493 2,786 3,429 2,973 3,203 3,567 3,710 3,785 3, 550 4,493 12.0 12. 9 15. 5 16. 1 16. 1 17. 1 16. 4 15.5 3,460 3, 820 4, 590 4,770 4,770 5, 210 5,000 4,730 3, 530 3, 860 4, 590 4,770 4,770 5, 110 4,850 4,550 * Income in current prices divided by the indei of prices paid by farmers for family living items on a 1965 base. Source: Department of Agricultura CORPORATE PROFITS Corporate profits before taxes and inventory valuation adjustment declined slightly in the third quarter to billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) but were 7 percent above a year earlier. $79.1 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BtLLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 30 20 10 10 1960 I 1961 1963 1966 J/EXCLUDING INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT. SOUtCI. OffAJtTMCNT Of COMMERCE Period 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1964: IV__ 1965: !_._ II__ III. IV.. 1966: !___ II__ III.. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally Corj3orate pr ofits (bef(3re taxes) and inveritory valuation adjustmei at TransCorpoM ianufactui -ing portation rate comAll profits All NonDurable muniother before indusgoods durable indus- taxes tries Total indusgoods cations, and tries tries public tries utilities 45. 6 41. 1 51.7 49.9 50. 3 55. 7 58. 9 66. 6 74. 2 66.8 73.2 72.7 74 0 76. 9 80. 0 79. 9 79. 1 24. 0 19. 3 26.3 24. 4 23. 3 26. 6 28.8 32. 4 37. 8 32. 2 37.4 36.7 37.4 39. 6 41. 9 40. 6 39.5 13.3 9.3 13. 6 12. 0 11. 4 14. 1 15.8 17.9 22. 1 17.5 21.9 21.2 21. 9 23. 2 24.7 23.4 22.5 10. 7 10. 0 12. 7 12. 4 11.9 12.5 13.0 14.5 15.7 14.7 15. 5 15.5 15.5 16. 4 17.2 17.2 17.0 5.8 5.9 7.0 7. 5 7.9 8. 5 9.5 10.4 11. 1 10. 5 10. 7 10. 9 11. 2 11.5 11.3 12. 0 12.2 15. 8 15.9 18.4 17.9 19. 1 20. 5 20.7 23.8 25. 3 24. 1 25. 0 25. 1 25. 3 25.9 26.8 27.2 27. 3 1 Includes depreciation, capital outlays charged to current account, and accidental damages. 2 Corporate profits after taxes plus corporate capital consumption allowances. 71-996°—66 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS * SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW. 47. 2 41. 4 52. 1 49.7 50.3 55. 4 59.4 67.0 75.7 67.7 74.5 74.5 75. 0 78.7 82. 7 82. 8 81.9 adjusted annual rates] Cor] porate pi ofits aifter tax€JS Corpo- Profits plus rate Corpocapital capital rate conconDiviUntax sumpliabil- Total dend distrib- sumption tion uted payity ments profits allow-1 allow-2 ances an ces 21. 2 19. 0 23.7 23.0 23. 1 24.2 26.3 28.4 31.2 28.6 30.7 30.7 30.9 32.4 34. 1 34 1 33.7 26. 0 22. 3 28. 5 26.7 27.2 31.2 33.1 38.7 445 39.0 43.8 43.8 44 1 46. 3 48.7 48. 7 48.2 11.7 11. 6 12. 6 13.4 13.8 15. 2 16. 5 17.3 19.2 17.7 18. 1 18.8 19.5 20.2 20.9 21. 1 21.1 14 2 10.8 15. 9 13.2 13. 5 16. 0 16.6 21.3 25. 3 21.4 25.7 25.0 246 26. 1 27.8 27. 6 27. 1 20.8 22.0 23. 5 249 26. 2 30. 1 31.8 33.9 36. 3 34 8 35. 2 36.0 36.8 37.2 37.7 38. 5 39.1 46. 8 44 3 52. 0 51.6 53.5 61. 3 648 72.5 80.8 73.8 79.0 79.8 80.9 83.5 86.4 87. 2 87.3 NOTE.—Data beginning 1962 adjusted for effects of new depreciation guidelines ($2^£ billion for 1962) and therefore not comparable with preceding data. Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. Source: Department of Commerce. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT Gross private domestic investment declined $3% billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter. A $31/s billion decline in structures, nearly all in residential,and a $2% billion drop in inventory accumulation more than offset a $21A billion gain in producers1 durable equipment. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 120 20 20 1960 1966 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Fixed imvestment Total gross private domestic investment Period Total Struc tures Total Total 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1964: IV 1965: I II III IV 1966: I II III - 67. 4 70. 0 67.8 60.9 75. 3 74.8 71. 7 83. 0 87.1 93.0 106. 6 97. 4 103. 8 103.7 106.7 111. 9 114. 5 118. 5 115.0 61. 4 65.3 66. 5 62. 4 70. 5 71.3 69. 7 77. 0 81.3 88. 3 97. 5 90. 0 94. 4 96. 0 98. 0 101.5 105.6 106. 2 105. 1 38. 1 43.7 46. 4 41. 6 45. 1 48. 4 47. 0 51. 7 54. 3 60. 7 69. 7 63. 3 66. 7 67.9 70.2 73. 9 77.0 78. 2 80.3 NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. 8 Resid ential structures N<mresident ial 14. 3 17.2 18.0 16. 6 16. 7 18. 1 18. 4 19. 2 19. 5 21. 0 24. 9 21.8 23. 6 24. 6 24.4 26.8 28.5 27. 9 27.7 Nonfarm 13. 6 16. 5 17. 2 15. 8 15. 9 17. 4 17. 7 18. 5 18.8 20. 3 24. 2 21. 2 22.9 24. 0 23. 8 26. 1 27.8 27. 2 27. 0 Produce rsj durable equ ipment Total 23.8 26. 5 28.4 25. 0 28. 4 30. 3 28. 6 32. 5 34. 8 39. 7 44. 8 41. 4 43. 1 43.3 45. 8 47. 1 48. 5 50. 3 52.6 Nonfarm 21. 2 24. 2 25. 9 22. 0 25.4 27.7 25. 8 29. 4 31. 2 35.9 40.6 37. 7 39.3 39.4 41.3 42.3 43.7 45.4 47.5 Total 23.3 21. 6 20. 2 20. 8 25. 5 22. 8 22. 6 25. 3 27. 0 27. 6 27. 8 26. 7 27.7 28. 1 27.8 27. 6 28. 6 28. 0 24.8 Nonfarm 22. 7 20. 9 19. 5 20. 1 24. 8 22. 2 22. 0 24. 8 26.4 27. 0 27. 2 26. 2 27. 2 27. 5 27. 3 27. 0 28. 0 27. 4 24.3 Source: Department of Commerce. Change in business mv entories Total 6. 0 4. 7 1. 3 -1. 5 4. 8 3. 6 2. 0 6. 0 5.9 Nonfarm 5. 5 5. 1 .8 -2.3 4. 8 3.3 1. 7 5.3 5. 1 4. 7 9. 1 7. 4 8. 1 9.5 9. 4 7. 6 8. 7 10. 4 8.9 12. 3 9.9 5.3 7.9 6.7 7. 2 9.0 8.5 12. 1 10.4 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Business expenditures for new plant and equipment in 1966 are now expected to rise 16% percent above 1965, to $60.6 billion. This is 1/2 percentage point less than estimated in August. Outlays in the first half of 1967 are expected to continue their advance but at a considerably slower pace. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 70 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 70 I SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 60 60 TOTAL 50 50 40 40 NONMANUFACTURING 30 30 20 20 \ MANUFACTURING 10 10 I I 1961 I | I I 1 -I/ -l/,JL/t I 1962 1964 1963 1965 1966 1967 -I/SEE NOTE 3 ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS (Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] M anufacturi ng Period 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 3 1966 1965: III IV 1966: I II III IV 3 1967: I 33 II Total i 28. 32 26.83 28. 70 35. 08 36.96 30. 53 32. 54 35. 68 34. 37 37.31 39. 22 44. 90 51.96 60. 56 52. 75 55.35 58.00 60. 10 61. 25 62.60 63.45 64. 05 Total 11. 91 11. 04 11. 44 14.95 15.96 11.43 12.07 14. 48 13. 68 14. 68 15. 69 18.58 22.45 27. 01 23. 00 24.15 25.60 26. 80 27. 55 27.80 27.85 28.45 Transpo rtation Durable Nonduragoods ble goods 5. 65 5. 09 5. 44 7. 62 8.02 5.47 5. 77 7. 18 6.27 7. 03 7. 85 9. 43 11.40 14. 04 11. 75 12.45 13. 15 13.85 14. 35 14.65 14. 70 15. 10 6. 26 5. 95 6.00 7.33 7. 94 5. 96 6.29 7. 30 7. 40 7. 65 7. 84 9. 16 11.05 12. 97 11.25 11.70 12.45 12. 95 13. 20 13. 15 13. 15 13.35 Mining Railroads Other 0.99 1.31 . 85 1.24 1.24 . 94 . 99 . 99 . 98 1. 08 1. 04 1. 19 1.30 1. 47 1. 25 1.35 1.40 1.55 1. 45 1. 45 1. 50 1.23 1.40 . 75 . 92 1. 03 1. 56 1. 51 1. 60 1.71 1.77 1. 50 2. 02 1. 94 1. 85 2. 07 1. 92 2.38 2.81 3. 48 3.00 3.00 3.30 3. 50 3.40 3. 70 3. 65 35. 60 .98 .96 .92 .67 .85 1.10 1.41 1.73 1. 94 1.70 1.95 1.75 2. 00 1. 85 2. 15 2.00 Public Commerand utilities cial other 2 4.55 4. 22 4.31 4.90 6. 20 6.09 5. 67 5. 68 5. 52 5.48 5.65 6.22 6.94 8.31 6.75 7.30 8.25 8.30 8. 55 8. 15 9.30 8. 00 8. 23 9.47 11.05 10.40 9. 81 10.88 11.57 11.68 13.15 13. 82 15. 13 16.73 18. 36 17. 00 17.55 17.70 17. 95 18.45 19.25 19. 15 1 Excludes agriculture. Annual total is the sum of unadjusted expenditures; it does not necessarily 2 Commercial and other includes trade, service, finance, communications, and coincide with the average of seasonally adjusted figures. construction. These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product s Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures as reported by business estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover in late October and November 1966. Includes adjustments when necessary for agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays systematic tendencies in anticipatory data. charged to current expense. NOTE.—Beginning 1959 all quarterly data are rounded to nearest $50 million. Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce. EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE In November, seasonally adjusted, employment increased by 913,000 and exceeded the civilian labor force growth of 792,000. Unemployment decreased by 121,000. Both agricultural and nonagricultural employment increased, the latter by 776,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 90 MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 90 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 85 85 80 80 -TOTAL LABOR FORCE- \ 75 75 70 70 65 65 10 10 0 i i i i i I PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IJN e^ PL 0YAAENT T RA're ** 1 > SE ASO MA LL f AC>Jl SIrEt r- - -! r- n n n - rr TT Fl1 = f I :• ] 9 6C> 1961 1962 9 9 6-4; 6CJ 96^5 196< > * 14 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Total labor force Period (including armed forces) 1961... 19622.. 1963... 1964___ 1965... 1965: Oct.. Nov. Dec. 1966: Jan.. Feb.. MarApr. Mav. June July. Aug. Sept. Oct_. Nov_ 74, 175 74, 681 75, 712 76, 971 78, 357 Ci villam employiment NonagriTotal cultural Total labor force Unem(includploying ment armed forces) Thousands of Ijersons 14 66, 796 61, 333 4,806 74, 175 67, 846 62, 657 4,007 74, 681 68, 809 63, 863 4, 166 75, 712 70, 357 65, 596 3,876 76, 971 72, 179 67, 594 3,456 78, 357 Unadji listed Civilisin employment Civilian labor force Agricultural Nonagricultural years of age and over 71, 603 66, 796 5,463 61, 333 71, 854 67, 846 5, 190 62, 657 72, 975 68, 809 4, 946 63, 863 74, 233 70, 357 4,761 65, 596 75, 635 72, 179 4, 585 67, 594 Seasonally adjustec 1 78, 713 78, 598 78, 477 73, 196 72, 837 72, 749 68, 242 68, 709 69, 103 2,757 2,966 2,888 78, 606 78, 906 79, 408 75, 846 76, 111 76, 567 72, 561 72, 914 73, 441 4,551 4, 273 4, 486 77, 409 77, 632 78, 034 78, 914 79, 751 82, 700 82, 771 82, 468 80, 052 80, 530 80, 968 71, 229 71,551 72, 023 73, 105 73, 764 75, 731 76, 411 76, 369 74, 251 74, 730 75, 006 67, 652 67, 939 68, 244 68, 900 69, 472 70, 543 71, 402 71, 662 69, 878 70, 430 71, 036 3,290 3, 158 3,037 2,802 2, 942 3,870 3, 225 2, 921 2,573 2,521 2, 640 79, 644 79, 279 79, S15 79, 674 79, 813 80, 185 80, 233 80, 549 80, 342 80, 414 81, 249 76, 754 76, 355 76, 841 76, 666 76, 268 77, 086 77, 098 77, 371 77, 113 77, 135 77, 927 73, 715 73, 521 73, 485 73, 799 73, 281 73, 997 74, 072 74, 338 74, 165 74, 163 75, 076 4,429 69, 286 4,442 69, 079 4,363 69, 072 4,482 69,817 1 a Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population. Not strictly comparable with preceding data. See Employment and Earnings, May 1962, p. XIV. 10 Total 4, 076 4, 238 4,144 4,158 4,049 3,971 4, 108 68, 010 68, 641 68, 955 69, 155 69, 759 69, 928 70, 180 70, 116 70, 192 70, 968 Unemp oyment rate (pe rcent of Unem- civilia Q labor for oe) ployment Unad- Seasonadjusted ally justed Percent 4,806 6.7 5.6 4,007 4, 166 5.7 3,876 5.2 3,456 4.6 8 285 3 197 3 126 3.6 3.9 3.8 8 2 2 2 S 3 3 3 2 2 2 4.4 4.2 089 834 906 867 037 089 026 033 948 972 851 \ 4. 0 3.7 3.8 4.9 4.8 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.7 8.8 3.7 4.0 4*0 4. 0 3. 7 8.9 3.3 3.3 3.4 8.8 NOTE.—Beginning 1960, data include Alaska and Hawaii. Source: Department of Labor. 3. 9 8.9 ( 8. 7 Labor force participation rate, unadjusted * 58.0 57.4 57.3 57.4 57.5 57.5 57.4 57.2 56.3 56.4 56.7 57. 2 57.7 59.8 59.8 59. 5 57.7 57.9 58. 2 SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND PART-TIME EMPLOYMENT In November, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 3.7 percent, matching the low points of February and April. The rates for experienced wage and salary workers and married men also declined. LABOR FORCE TIME LOST THROUGH UNEMPLOYMENT AND PART-TIME WORK UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, EXPERIENCED WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS 4.0 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE MARRIED MEN ^ 2.0" 2.0 1966 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Unen iploymen t rate (percen t of eivilian labor for ce in groi P) Labor force time lost through Experi- Married unemenced All ployment Over 40 and men workers wage (wife and part- hours salary present) time workers work * Period Per cent 1961 1962 1963 1964— 1965 _ 6.7 _ 1965: Oct Nov Dec— 1966: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov 5. 6 5.7 5.2 4.6 4.3 4, 2 41 4.0 3.7 3.8 3.7 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.7 as 5. 5 5. 5 5.0 4.2 4. 6 3. 6 3.4 2.8 2.4 Season all y adjustec 4. 0 2.1 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.5 3.4 3. 7 3. 7 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.4 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.7 ao 6.7 '6. 4 5.8 5.0 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.0 4. 1 4.1 4.4 4.8 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.9 18, 210 19, 025 19, 257 19, 294 20, 808 21, 900 21, 006 22, 477 20, 851 20, 690 21, 288 20, 926 21, 440 21, 656 20, 873 21, 141 22, 343 22,331 20, 390 1 Man-hours lost by the unemployed and those on part-time for economic reasons as a percent of total man-hours potentially available to the civilian labor force. Beginning 1963, series reflects whether unemployed persons sought fullor 2part-time jobs. Differs from total nonagricultural employment (p. 13), which includes persons with jobs but not at work for such reasons as vacation, illness, bad weather, and industrial disputes. Persons at work i n nonagri cultural 2iiidustries by hours worked i>er week Uiider 35 ho urs Part-ti me for Part-ti me for economi c reasons economi c reasons 35-40 hours Total Usually Usually Usually Usually fullpartfullparttime 3 time 4 time 8 time 4 Thousan ds of pers ons 14 ye ars of age and over 29, 047 11, 132 1,297 1,516 28, 853 11, 675 1,049 1,288 29, 422 11, 856 1,219 1,070 29, 127 13, 850 985 1,151 30, 802 12, 618 897 1,031 IJnadjuste< i Seasonal^? adjusted 30, 846 13, 052 829 853 848 973 28, 341 17, 195 830 916 817 1,002 32, 330 12, 447 761 866 766 979 32, 125 12, 408 972 794 902 917 32, 389 12, 555 732 871 899 782 32, 543 12, 156 826 743 820 802 32, 263 12, 825 711 796 776 795 32, 951 12, 772 829 716 839 768 33, 258 11,420 1,036 1,203 1,040 964 31, 678 10, 925 886 1,303 975 1,002 32, 218 10, 741 881 1, 125 856 860 32, 361 12, 284 732 832 840 804 32,018 13,565 811 640 829 730 5 28, 592 19, 688 773 5661 761 723 3 Includes persons who worked part-time because of slack work, material shortages or repairs, new job started,, or ' or jo' job *terminated. 4 Primarily includes persons who could find only part-time work. * Average hours worked: usually full-time, 23.3; usually part-time, 17.7. NOTE.—Beginning 1960, data include Alaska and Hawaii. Source: Department of Labor. 11 UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In November, insured unemployment under State programs averaged 1 37,000 less than in November 1965. The insured unemployment rate on a seasonally adjusted basis rose from 2.1 percent to 2.2 percent. MILLIONS OF PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS WEEKLY INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT , (STATE PROGRAMS) 1963 J JAN. FEB. MAR, APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. NOV. OCT. DEC J/ SEE NOTE I ON TABLE BELOW. •SOURC& DB»ARTMENT OF IABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS A 11 progranas Period 1962 1963 1964 1965__ 1965: Oct Nov___ Dec 1966: Jan Feb.._ Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov * Week ended: 1966: Nov. 5 12 19 26.Dec. 3-» 10* Steite progra ms Insured Total unem- benefits Insured Covered ploypaid unememploy- ment (milployment (weekly lions ment averof dolage) lars) Thou sands 47, 776 1 1,946 48, 434 1, 973 49, 635 1,753 »51, 580 1,450 »52, 702 1,030 *52, 709 1,133 "53,411 1,396 1,739 '51,935 1,679 * 52, 127 "52,894 1,381 1, 112 916 841 1,001 980 802 799 955 3, 160. 0 3, 025. 9 2, 749. 2 2, 434. 7 128.2 143.0 184.7 226.5 230.2 240. 0 166.4 136.1 123.4 121.0 152.0 114.3 100.4 123.0 Weekly iiverage, t lousands 302 32 1, 783 1 1, 806 *298 30 1, 605 268 26 1, 328 232 21 933 1,042 1,308 1,644 1,590 1,301 1, 044 862 793 947 928 754 752 905 826 908 930 ._ 1,043 1,093 2 778 857 880 989 1, 038 Programs Include Puerto Riean sugarcane workers for initial claims and insured unemployment beginning July 1963. 2 Not charted. 12 Initial claims InsurecI unemploymen t as perExhaus- cent of covered emplo yment tions Unad- Seasonadjusted ally justed 189 225 290 329 238 171 166 152 156 249 173 145 166 208 190 194 217 206 244 303 16 15 17 19 19 18 19 17 15 14 12 11 12 12 Per<sent 4. 4 4. 3 3. 8 3.0 2.0 2.3 3.0 3.7 3.6 2.9 2.3 1.9 1. 8 2. 1 2.0 1.6 1. 6 1. 9 2. 7 2.7 2. 7 2.7 2. 6 2.3 2. 1 2.1 2. 1 2.4 2.4 2.2 2. 1 2. 2 Benefi bs paid Total Average (milweekly lions of check dollars) (dollars) 2, 675. 4 2, 774. 7 2, 522. 1 2, 166. 0 117. 8 132.2 172. 1 212.7 217. 2 225.5 155.5 126.1 114. 4 113.8 143.1 106.5 93.7 116.0 34. 56 35. 28 35.96 37.19 37.32 38.08 38. 81 39.36 39.66 39. 83 39.38 38. 86 38.72 39. 05 40.65 39.68 39.84 40. 25 1.6 1. 8 1. 9 2. 1 2.2 NOTE.—For definitions and coverage, see the 1964 Supplement to Economic Indicators. Data for Alaska and Hawaii included for all periods and for Puerto Rico since January 1961. Source: Department of Labor. NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Nonagricultural payroll employment (seasonally adjusted) increased by 271,000 in November to 64.7 million, a new high. Largest employment gains were in manufacturing (93,000), in services (64,000), and in State and local government (63,000). Small decreases occurred in contract construction and mining. MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA) 22 MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA) 66 MANUFACTURING ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 64 .20 62 18 60 16 58 10 TOTAL GOODSINDUSTRIES NONDURABLE GOODS 'INDUSTRIES 56 54 4.5 13.5 WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE (ENLARGED SCALE) CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION. (ENLARGED SCALE) 4.0 13.0 3.5 12.5 3.0 12.0 11.5 2.5 1966 1963 1963 1964 SOURCE DEPARTMENT Of lABOt 1965 1966 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers;1 seasonally adjusted] Manufac turing (jprivate) Period 1959 1960__ _. 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1965: Oct.. Nov. Dec.. 1966: Jan.. Feb_. Mar. Apr__ May. June. July. Aug. Sept . Oct p _ Nov » Total 53, 313 54, 234 54, 042 55, 596 56, 702 58, 332 60, 770 61, 437 61, 864 62, 241 62, 469 62,811 63, 247 63, 350 63, 517 63, 983 64, 072 64, 199 64, 168 64, 428 64, 699 Total 16, 675 16, 796 16, 326 16, 853 16, 995 17, 274 18, 032 18, 242 18, 392 18, 492 18, 566 18, 722 18, 840 18, 923 19, 002 19, 167 19, 128 19, 262 19, 204 19, 315 19, 4 r 8 NonDurable durable goods goods Total 9,373 9,459 9,070 9,480 9,616 9,816 10, 386 10, 550 10, 641 10, 725 10, 805 10,911 11, 007 11, 065 11, 122 11, 220 11,210 11, 324 11,322 11, 386 11, 423 7,303 28, 555 7,336 29, 085 7,256 29, 122 7,373 29, 853 7,380 30, 481 7,458 31, 461 7,645 32, 647 7,692 32, 960 7,751 33, 152 7,767 33, 369 7,761 33, 468 7,811 33, 568 7,833 33, 777 7,858 33, 722 7,880 33, 753 7,947 33, 931 7,918 34, 015 7,938 34, 003 7,882 34, 041 7,929 34, 130 7,985 34, 226 N onmanu facturin§I (private ) Con- TransWhole- Finance, insur- Service tract portasale tion ance, and Mining conand and and miscelstruc- public retail real laneous tion utilities trade estate 732 2,960 4,011 11, 127 2,594 7,130 712 2,885 4,004 11, 391 2,669 7,423 672 2,816 3,903 11, 337 2,731 7,664 650 2,902 3,906 11, 566 2,800 8,028 635 2,963 3,903 11, 778 2,877 8,325 634 3,050 3,951 12, 160 2,957 8,709 632 3, 181 4,033 12, 683 3,019 9,098 627 3,186 4,071 12, 809 3,041 9,226 631 3,234 4,080 12, 880 3,045 9,282 633 3,334 4,083 12, 941 3,049 9,329 635 3,318 4, 091 13, 009 3,052 9,363 634 3,323 4,105 13, 045 3,051 9,410 637 3,419 4,109 13, 085 3,064 9,463 595 3,333 4,114 13, 128 3,068 9,484 628 3,238 4,132 13, 164 3,076 9,515 632 3,300 4,143 13, 217 3,090 9,549 636 3,297 4,122 13, 256 3,095 9,609 636 3,251 4,105 13, 264 3,100 9,647 628 3,228 4, 168 13, 268 3,100 9,649 625 3,203 4,163 13, 331 3,102 9,706 623 3, 191 4,180 13, 355 3,107 9,770 1 Includes ail full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor forces, shown on p. 10, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they Gover nment Federal 2,233 2,270 2,279 2,340 2,358 2,348 2,378 2,386 2,400 2,397 2,423 2,451 2,477 2,501 2,523 2,571 2,601 2,610 2,594 2,589 2,608 State and local 5,850 6,083 6,315 6,550 6,868 7,249 7,713 7,849 7,920 7,983 8,012 8,070 8, 153 8,204 8,239 8,314 8,328 8,324 8,329 8,394 8,457 are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. NOTE.—Beginning 1959, data include Alaska and Hawaii. Source: Department of Labor. 13 WEEKLY HOURS OF WORK - SELECTED INDUSTRIES The seasonally adjusted average workweek in manufacturing was 41.3 hours in November, unchanged from its October level. Weekly hours in durable goods and contract construction decreased slightly. HOURS PER WEEK (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) HOURS PER WEEK (SEASONALLY-ADJUSTED) 46 46 DURABLE MANUFACTURIh4G NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING AA 42 ***^^" ^^ ' p^^-*V—•/•- *N/—» AC\ «1Q 1A 34 A, , , , , 1 , , , . , 1964 1963 1965 N 1966 34 ^ 1964 1965 1966 1964 1965 1966 1963 44 CONTRAQ CONSTRUCTION RETAIL TRADE 42 40 38 36 34 34 32 32 1963 1964 1963 SEE TABLE BELOW. SOURCEi DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Average hours per week; * seasonally adjusted] Marlufacturing Industries Period 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1965: Oct Nov Dec 1966: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct" Nov* Durable goods All __ 40.7 40. 4 39.8 39. 2 40. 3 39. 7 39.8 40. 4 40.5 40. 7 41.2 41.2 41.4 41.3 41.4 41. 5 41. 5 41. 5 41. 5 41.3 41. 0 41.4 41.5 41.3 41.3 1 Data relate to production workers or nonsupervisory employees. Data for Alaska and Hawaii Included beginning 1959. 14 41. 3 41.0 40. 3 39. 5 40.7 40. 1 40.3 40. 9 41. 1 41.4 42. 0 42. 1 42. 2 42.2 42. 4 42. 4 42. 3 42. 3 42. 2 42. 0 41. 8 42.1 42.3 42.2 42.1 Nondurable goods 39.9 39. 6 39. 2 38. 8 39. 7 39.2 39. 3 39.6 39. 6 39. 7 40. 1 40.1 40. 3 40.2 40.2 40. 5 40. 4 40.3 40. 3 40.3 40. 1 40.2 40.2 40. 1 40.1 Contract construction 37.1 37. 5 37.0 36.8 37. 0 36.7 36.9 37.0 37.3 37.2 37.4 37.1 37.2 38.6 37.8 38. 1 38.5 37.2 36. 1 37.4 37. 8 36.9 37.7 37.3 37.1 * Beginning 1964, includes eating and drinking places. Source: Department of Labor. Retail trade 39.6 39.1 38.7 38.7 38.7 38.5 38. 1 37.9 37.8 *37. 0 36. 6 36.4 36. 3 36.3 36.2 36. 1 36. 0 35.9 35.9 36. 0 36. 1 36.1 35.8 35.7 35.7 AVERAGE HOURLY AND WEEKLY EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES Average weekly earnings in manufacturing rose again slightly in November to almost $114. construction experienced a seasonal decrease. Earnings in contract DOLLARS 130 DOLLARS 3.00 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS „,*v.««'»'V 2.80 DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES . 120 .^«^" /** DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES 2.60 110 2.40 100 2.20 90 -A/ 2.00 "NONDURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES 80 1963 1966 1963 1964 SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1965 1966 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [For production workers or nonsupervisory employees] r Period Avenige hourlj earnings-— current prices Aver age weekl y earnings3— current/ prices Manufi acturing i ndustries Contract Retail conNonDurable durable trade strucAll goods tion goods Manufi icturing iiadustries Contract Retail conNonDurable durable trade strucAll goods tion goods $1.95 1956 2.05 1957 2. 11 1958 2. 19 1959 2. 26 1960 2. 32 1961--2.39 1962 2.46 1963 2. 53 1964 2. 61 1965 1965: Oct__ 2. 64 Nov__ 2. 65 Dec.. 2. 66 1966: Jan__ 2.67 2. 67 Feb__ 2. 68 Mar__ Apr__ 2. 70 Mav_ 2.70 June. 2.71 July. 2.71 Aug_ 2.70 Sept__ 2.74 Oet*_ 2.75 Nov * 2.76 $2.08 2. 19 2.26 2.36 2.43 2. 49 2.56 2. 63 2. 71 2.79 2.82 2. 83 2.84 2.85 2. 86 2. 86 2. 88 2. 88 2. 88 2.88 2.87 2.93 2.93 2.94 $1.77 1. 85 1. 91 1.98 2.05 2. 11 2. 17 2. 22 2. 29 2. 36 2.38 2. 39 2.40 2. 40 2. 41 2. 41 2. 43 2.44 2. 45 2.46 2.45 2.47 2.48 2.49 $2. 57 2.71 2. 82 2.93 3.08 3. 20 3.31 3. 41 3. 55 3. 69 3.77 3. 75 3.77 3.79 3. 82 3. 80 3. 81 3. 83 3. 83 3.85 3.89 3.96 3.96 3.95 $1. 40 1.47 1. 52 1.57 1. 62 1.68 1.74 1. 80 *1. 75 1. 82 1. 86 1. 86 1. 85 1.88 1. 88 1. 88 1. 89 1. 90 1. 91 1.91 1.90 1.93 1.94 1.94 $78. 78 81. 59 82. 71 88.26 89.72 92. 34 96. 56 99. 63 102. 97 107. 53 109. 03 109. 71 110. 92 110.00 110. 27 110. 95 111. 24 112. 05 112. 74 111. 11 111.78 113.71 .13. 85 113.99 i Earnings in current prices, adjusted to exeludeovertmieandinterindustry shifts. 'Earnings in current prices divided by the consumer price index. 71-996°—66- $85. 28 88.26 89. 27 96.05 97.44 100. 35 104. 70 108. 09 112. 19 117. 18 118. 72 119. 43 120. 98 119.99 120. 69 120. 69 121. 54 121. 82 121. 82 119.81 120. 54 123. 94 123. 65 123. 77 $70. 09 72.52 74. 11 78.61 80.36 82.92 85.93 87.91 90.91 94. 64 95. 68 96.32 96. 96 95.52 96. 88 96. 88 96. 96 98. 33 99. 23 99. 14 99.23 99.54 99.70 99.85 $96. 38 100. 27 103. 78 108. 41 113. 04 118. 08 122. 47 127. 19 132. 06 138. 01 144.39 136. 50 139. 87 138. 34 139. 05 143. 26 140. 59 141. 71 146. 69 150. 15 149. 38 151. 67 152. 46 143. 39 $54. 74 56. 89 58.82 60. 76 62. 37 64. 01 65. 95 68.04 *6475 66. 61 67.33 66.77 67.71 67.49 67.30 67. 12 67.47 67.64 69. 14 70. 48 70.11 69.09 68.87 68.48 Manufac Jturing indust,ries Adjusted Average weekly earnings, earnings, 1957-59= 1957-59 100 i prices * 91. 5 $83. 19 96. 2 83.26 100. 2 82.14 103. 5 86.96 87.02 106. 6 88.62 109. 6 112. 3 91. 61 115.2 93.37 118. 0 95.25 97.84 121. 1 121.9 98. 76 122.3 99.20 122.8 99.93 123.2 99.10 123. 4 98.81 123.6 99. 06 124.2 98.88 1244 99.51 124.7 99.86 124.8 98.07 98.22 124.8 125.9 99.66 126.3 99.43 *Beginning 1964, includes eating and drinking places. NOTE.—Beginning 1959, data include Alaska and Hawaii. Source: Department of Labor. 15 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION The industrial production index, seasonally adjusted, declined siishtly in November but was 8 percent higher than a year earlier. An increase in equipment was more than offset by declines in materials and consumer goods. Index, 1957-59=100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) Index, 1957-59 = 100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 180 200 160 140 120 120 100 1966 1963 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Total industrial production Period 1956 1957 1958___ 1959 1960 1961 1962__. 1963 1964 1965 1965: Oct. Nov Dec 1966: Jan Feb Mar Apr May___ June July Aug Sept Oct v Nov „ __ _. _ ..._ _ 99.9 100.7 93.7 105. 6 108. 7 109. 7 118. 3 124 3 132.3 143.4 145.5 146.7 149.0 150.6 152.4 153.7 153.9 155.3 156.5 157.2 158.0 157.8 158.6 158.3 [1957-59 = 100, seasonally adjusted] Industry ' M anufaetur ing Mining Utilities NonTotal Durable durable Total Consumer goods Equipment 100. 2 100.8 93.2 106. 0 108. 9 109. 6 118. 7 124. 9 133. 1 145.0 147.0 148.6 151.0 152.9 154.7 155.9 156.6 157.6 158.9 159.4 160. 1 160. 1 161.1 160.8 98. 1 99. 4 94 8 105. 7 109. 9 111. 2 119. 7 1249 131.8 142.5 145.7 148.0 148.9 150.3 152. 1 152.5 152.9 153.7 154. 9 155.3 156.4 156.4 157.9 158.2 95. 5 97.0 96. 4 106. 6 111. 0 112. 6 119. 7 125. 2 131.7 140.3 141.9 143.7 144.2 144.6 146. 1 146.2 146.4 146.2 147. 1 146.5 147. 1 146.6 148.5 148.1 103.7 104 6 91. 3 104 1 107. 6 108. 3 119. 6 124 2 132.0 147.0 153.9 157.3 159.0 162.6 164.8 166.2 166.9 169.8 171.4 174.4 176.4 177.4 178.2 180.0 104.0 104 0 90. 3 105. 6 108. 5 107. 0 117. 9 124 5 133.5 148.4 150.8 151.8 155.2 158.1 160.7 161.9 162.9 164.2 165.4 166.1 167. 1 167.2 168.9 167.6 95. 4 96. 7 96. 8 106. 5 109. 5 112.9 119. 8 125. 3 132.6 140.8 142.3 144.5 145.7 146.4 147.3 148.5 148.7 149.4 150.7 151.3 151.3 151.1 151.4 152.3 NOTE.—Beginning 1964, series revised. See Federal Reserve Bulletin, Novem- 16 1048 1046 95. 6 99. 7 101. 6 102. 6 105. 0 107. 9 111.5 114.8 116.4 116.4 118.3 117.3 117.7 120.0 115.6 120.7 122.0 122.0 122. 1 121.0 121.5 120.2 87.9 93.9 98. 1 108. 0 115. 6 122. 3 131. 4 140. 0 151.3 160.9 164.7 164.1 164.9 164.7 168.7 168.8 169.1 170.2 171.7 175.7 179.0 177.4 175.5 175.5 Ma rket Fi nal produ cts Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. T V / f _ J. _ iviaterials 101. 6 101.9 92.7 105.4 107.6 108.4 117. 0 123. 7 132.8 144.2 145.3 146.1 148.8 150.9 152.6 154.4 154.5 157.1 158.0 158.8 159.6 159.2 159.5 158.5 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURES Production of transportation equipment and primary metals declined about 2 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis. Paper and printing and food groups gained about 1 percent. Other major manufactures recorded small changes. Index, 1957-59=100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 200 Index, 1957-59 = 100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 180 180 TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT \ 160 MACHINERY \ 140 120 »- LUMBER AND PRODUCTS 100 120 80 100 \ V 1963 1966 1963 1964 1966 1965 160 180 CHEMICALS, PETROLEUM, AND RUBBER \ TEXTILES, APPAREL, AND LEATHER 140 160 120 FOODS, BEVERAGES, AND TOBACCO 140 100 PAPER AND PRINTING 120 i . i i.l i i i i ! 1963 1965 1964 1966 1964 1963 1965 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 1966 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1957-59=100, seasonally adjusted] Ncmdurable manufactu res Durab le manufsictures Period 1956 1957 1958 > 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1965: Oct Nov Dec 1966: Jan Feb Mar Apr May _ June July Aug Sept Oct_ Nov » Primary metals _ _ _ 116. 4 112. 2 87. 5 100. 4 101. 3 98. 9 104. (') 113. 3 129. 1 137.6 125.0 120.6 126.5 131.9 138.3 141.8 142. 4 146. 5 148. 0 148.6 148.7 146.3 144. 2 142 FabriTranspor- Lumber Textiles, Paper Chemicals, Foods, cated and apparel, Machinand petrotation bevermetal and ery prodprint- leum, and ages, and equipleather ing rubber products ment ucts tobacco 98. 8 101. 5 92. 9 105. 5 107. 6 106. 5 117. 1 123. 4 132. 7 147. 8 150.9 153. 6 156. 3 157.7 161. 6 161.7 161.4 162. 9 161.8 162. 1 161.4 163.0 164.2 165 107. 1 104. 2 88. 8 107. 1 110. 8 110. 4 123. 5 129. 2 141.4 160. 5 166.4 168. 3 171.0 174. 5 176.4 176. 1 178. 6 180.6 182.8 186.6 189.6 188.9 190. 6 190 NOTE.—Beginning 1964. series revised. See Federal Reserve Bulletin, Novem- ber 1966. 97. 4 106. 4 89. 5 104. 0 108. 2 103. 6 118. 3 127. 0 130.7 149.2 154.9 157. 2 160.4 163. 0 164. 1 166. 1 165.9 165.8 167. 1 166. 0 166.0 168.3 174.5 171 105.4 95.9 95. 6 108. 5 102. 1 101. 3 106. 1 108. 9 112.6 117.4 118.3 119. 1 125. 4 125.6 126.5 129. 3 130.7 122.7 122.9 119.9 111.3 110.0 112. 0 98.0 96.9 95.0 108. 1 107.5 108. 4 115. 1 118. 5 125.2 135.8 137.3 138.7 140.2 138.6 139.8 141. 1 142.6 142.0 143.4 141.6 140. 1 140.5 140. 7 141 97. 1 97.8 97.0 105.2 109. 0 112.4 116. 7 120. 1 127.5 135.3 136.4 139.2 140.6 142. 1 142.7 144.2 143.5 146.6 148.3 149.6 148.6 147.2 148. 1 150 91. 4 95. 6 95. 5 108.9 113.9 118. 9 131. 2 141. 8 152.5 164.6 167.9 170.6 172. 8 174.6 175. 1 176.6 177.3 179.3 180.1 182.0 182.4 182.8 184.7 185 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System. 96. 6 96.7 99.4 103.9 106. 6 110.2 113.3 116. 8 120.8 123.4 123.3 125. 1 124.8 125.7 126.8 127.4 126.9 125.5 126.8 127.2 128.5 128.1 126.5 127 17 WEEKLY INDICATORS OF PRODUCTION Most weekly indicators of production declined in November on a seasonally unadjusted basis. MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS (DAILY AVERAGE) MILLIONS OF TONS STEEL 3.5 196 1964 2.5 \ 1.5 U i n 1 1 1 1 .i I i i i..l n i i i i 1 1 1 t i 1 1 i i i i J i i 1 1 1 1 11 i i i 1 1 i 1 1 I i i i^ " K J F M A M J J A S O N D BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS 18 4 , , , , i , , , l ,, , 1 , , , I ,, , ,| , , , I, , , , | , , , | , , , | , , i , 1 , , ,1 , , , h F M A M J J A S O N J • F A M SOURCES! AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, AND WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS 1 N D COUNCH. OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS _ __ 1,792 1,899 1,880 1,886 2,096 2,431 2,521 2,098 2,056 2,178 2,388 2,562 2,728 2,697 2,752 2,658 2,441 2, 505 2, 636 2, 598 2,538 96.2 101. 9 100.9 101. 2 112. 5 130. 5 135.3 112. 6 110.4 116.9 128.2 137.5 146. 4 144, 8 147.7 142. 7 131. 1 134. 5 141. 5 139.5 136.2 13, 297 14, 424 15, 139 16, 325 17, 490 18, 728 20, 169 19, 741 20, 027 21, 010 22, 138 21, 969 21, 051 20, 542 20, 826 22,078 23, 719 23, 257 21, 639 21, 434 21, 982 1,380 1,390 1,353 1, 414 1, 535 1,630 1,735 1,799 1,907 1,909 1,677 1,675 1,785 1,196 1,830 1,922 1,910 1,874 1,887 1,872 1,891 596 585 550 552 555 550 563 620 580 524 526 524 558 557 609 593 544 594 593 631 581 307 306 322 343 358 384 410 441 443 401 421 446 453 450 466 459 396 455 434 463 459 129. 5 151.8 127.8 157.5 175.0 178.8 213.7 240. 1 242.3 224.0 233.8 228.7 234. 6 230. 7 229. 7 215. 3 139. 0 52.4 182. 6 233. 0 227. 7 107. 6 128.8 106. 1 133.4 146. 9 148.8 179.4 203. 6 207.6 189.0 196.0 190.2 197. 5 192. 8 190.2 177. 2 107. 4 37.3 153. 4 196. 6 191. 9 21.9 23. 0 21.7 24. 1 28. 1 30. 0 34.3 36.6 34.7 35.0 37.7 38.5 37. 2 37.9 39.4 38.0 31. 6 15. 1 29. 3 36.4 35. 8 2,546 2,560 2, 565 2,528 2,436 2,383 136.7 137.4 137. 7 135. 7 130.8 127. 9 22, 089 21, 952 22, 033 21, 119 22, 715 22, 906 1,888 1,865 1,854 1,961 1,833 2 1, 853 614 586 609 524 572 563 468 464 464 453 444 458 237. 5 233. 5 239. 9 184. 7 243. 0 236. 7 202. 1 194.2 203. 0 155.6 204.5 198. 8 35.4 39.3 36. 9 29. 1 38. 5 37. 9 Dally average. Includes data for Alaska. 2Not charted. 18 O Electric Bituminous Freight Paperboard Steel pi•oduced Car s and triicks power coal mined loaded produced assemb led (thoiisands) Thousands Index distributed (thousands (thousands (thousands of net of short (1957-59= (millions of Total Cars Trucks of tons) of cars) tons 100) kilowatt-hours) tons) i Period Weekly average: 1959 . 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1965: Oct Nov Dec 1966: Jan Feb._. Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov * Week ended: 1966: Nov 5_ 12 19 26 Dec 3*> 10" S Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, Association of American Railroads, American Paper Institute, and Ward's Automotive Reports. NEW CONSTRUCTION New construction expenditures, seasonally adjusted, declined nearly 2 percent in November. Expenditures for residential construction, down 6 percent, accounted for almost all of the decline. Revised estimates for October now indicate a sharper drop, with construction in that month down 3% percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 80 80 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 70 70 TOTAL NEW CONSTRUCTION 60 60 50 50 PRIVATE 40 40 30 30 PUBLIC 10 1966 1960 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 Total new construction expenditures 53. 9 55.4 59. 7 63. 0 66.2 71.9 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total 38. 1 38. 3 41. 8 43. 6 45. 9 50. 0 Private Eesidentia il nonfarm CommerNew cial and Total i housing industrial units Bil lions of doll ars 16.4 21.7 7.0 16.2 21.7 7.5 24. 3 18. 6 8. 0 25. 8 7.9 20. 1 26. 5 20. 6 9.0 26.7 20.8 11.8 Federal State Other 9.3 9.2 9.5 9.9 10.4 11.5 and local 15.9 17.1 1 17.9 19.3 1 20.3 1 21.9 3 72. 7 74. 0 76.4 77.6 78. 9 79.5 78.6 76. 1 75.9 73. 8 73.5 73.6 71. 1 69.9 50. 1 51.2 53.4 53. 3 54.3 55. 1 54.3 52. 3 52. 1 50. 1 49.7 49.7 47.4 46. 2 26.3 26.2 26.7 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.4 27.0 26. 2 25. 1 23.9 23. 1 22.4 21. 1 20.4 20.3 20.8 21. 6 21.6 21.4 21.6 21. 1 20. 2 19. 2 18.0 17.3 16.6 15. 3 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. 2 Compiled by F. \V. Dodge Corporation and relates to 48 States. 12. 1 13.0 14.3 13.8 13. 9 14.7 14.3 13. 0 13.9 13. 4 13.6 14.0 12.8 25 1 105. 2 107. 6 119. 7 132. 0 137. 0 142. 8 Seasonally adjusted Seasonally r adjusted an nual rates 1965: Oct Nov Dec 1966: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov p IConstructioii contracts2 CommerTotal value cial and (index, industrial 1957-59 = floor space | 100) (millions of square feet) 11.6 12.0 12.5 12.0 12. 9 13. 0 12. 6 12.3 12. 1 11. 5 12. 1 12.7 12. 3 22. 6 22.8 23.0 24.3 24.6 24. 4 24 2 23.9 23.8 23.8 23.8 23.9 23.6 23. 7 461 443 500 534 599 680 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 147 141 153 152 157 158 161 156 147 147 139 146 139 726 724 772 720 810 829 860 744 791 757 741 797 637 NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning January 1959. Sources: Department of Commerce and F. W. Dodge Corporation. 19 NEW HOUSING STARTS AND APPLICATIONS FOR FINANCING In November, total private housing starts partially recovered from their record low in October, rising 19 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1 million units—but they remained considerably below the rates of months prior to October. Permits rose slightly—their first gain in 8 months—but are sill 42 percent below their 1965 average. MILLIONS OF UNITS 2.5 MILLIONS OF UNITS 2.5 PRIVATE NONFARM HOUSING STARTS 1.0 1960 1966 SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, FEDERAL HOUSING ADMINISTRATION (FHA), AND VETERANS ADMINISTRATION (VA) Tntal Period 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 » 1965: Oct__ Nov.. Dec.. 1966: Jan._ Feb__ Mar.. Apr__ May. June. July.. •Aug... Sept" Oct p _v Nov private and public (including farm) 1, 296. 0 1, 365. 0 1, 492. 4 1, 641. 0 1, 590. 7 1, 542. 7 1, 252. 1 1, 313. 0 1, 462. 7 1, 609. 2 1, 557. 4 1, 505. 0 135.7 118.3 103.2 87.3 81.0 130.9 149.2 139.3 130.7 104.8 107.3 95.2 82.0 76.5 133. 6 116.1 102.3 84. 6 78.2 126.3 147. 1 135.4 127.5 104.0 105.4 92.4 79.5 74.2 Total private (including farm) [Thousands of units] Houising star ts Prhrate nonfa rm Priv ate nonfiirm Total private Two or (includGover nment Onemore ing Total home pirograms Total family famifarm) FHA VA lies 257.4 972.7 1, 252. 1 1, 230. 1 225. 7 1, 230. 1 74. 6 946.2 338.6 1, 313. 0 1, 284. 8 198. 8 1, 284. 8 83.3 1, 439. 0 967. 8 471.2 1, 462. 7 1, 439. 0 197. 3 77. 8 993.2 588. 5 1, 609. 2 1, 581. 7 166. 2 1, 581. 7 71. 0 1, 530. 4 944.5 585.9 1, 557. 4 1, 530. 4 154.0 59.2 940.0 542.7 1, 505. 0 1, 482. 7 159.9 1, 482. 7 52.5 Se asonally ad j usted 84.4 1,411 46.5 130. 9 1, 380 167 49 70.2 114.9 44.7 1,547 54 1,531 173 58.3 100.8 42.5 1,769 189 48 1,735 47.2 83.7 36.5 1,611 1, 585 181 53 31.4 45.3 1,374 76.7 1, 349 177 40 78.7 124. 1 45.4 1,569 45 1,538 187 93.0 51.8 1,502 144.8 1,481 151 37 132.2 47.4 84.8 1,318 128 1,287 38 81.4 121 125. 1 44 43.7 1,285 1,261 69.7 102.3 32.6 42 1,088 1,068 117 34.2 69. 1 103. 3 1,107 113 35 1,084 90.2 1,075 1,050 96 37 77.4 841 819 94 38 1,000 72.9 981 107 40 1 Authorized by issuance of local building permit; in 10,000 permit-issuing places prior to 1963, and 12,000 or more thereafter. 3 Units represented by mortgage applications for new home construction. 20 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Propost3d home consti uction New private housing Applica- Requests units tions for for VA FHA appraisauthorized 1 commitals 2 ments 2 142. 9 242. 4 998. 0 243. 8 1, 064. 2 177. 8 221. 1 171. 2 1, 186. 6 1, 334. 7 190. 2 139. 3 182.1 113.6 1, 285. 8 188.9 102.1 1, 240. 6 annual ra tes 1, 244 192 94 222 1,280 100 1,292 219 105 214 1,255 89 72 1,197 179 92 160 1,268 168 111 1, 185 133 98 1,098 954 127 90 921 124 99 844 119 106 102 733 151 122 714 119 717 135 103 NOTE.—Data include Alaska and Hawaii. Sources: Department of Commerce, Federal Housing Administration (FHA), and Veterans Administration (VA). BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES - TOTAL AND TRADE According to preliminary estimates, seaonally adjusted retail sales declined nearly 1 percent in November, business sales in October gained 1/2 percent and inventories rose $1.3 billion. Total BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 20 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 130 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES RETAIL TRADE (ENLARGED SCALE) 18 120 DURABLE GOODS STORES INVENTORIES 16 110 INVENTORIES 14 100 12 90 10 80 SALES 8 SALES . ,....—-K/ 6 70 22 NONDURABLE GOODS STORES 20 WHOLESALE TRADE (ENLARGED SCALE) 18 16 14 'SALES 12 1963 1966 1964 1963 1965 SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total tmsiness Period Sales 1966 2 1 Inventories 3 Whol esale Sales 2 4 ReJtail 5 Sales 2 Inventories 3 Total Inventories 3 NonDurable durable goods goods stores stores Total Durable goods stores 24, 113 25, 305 26, 813 26, 238 27, 938 29, 383 31, 130 34, 607 33, 585 33, 667 33, 916 34, 607 34, 745 34, 922 35, 101 35, 346 35, 927 36, 325 36, 312 36, 191 36, 355 36, 680 10, 526 11, 029 11, 923 10, 965 11, 656 12, 386 13, 136 15, 194 14, 971 14, 927 14, 979 15, 194 15, 323 15, 424 15, 551 15, 690 16, 213 16,411 16, 330 16, 079 16, 241 16, 496 Nondurable goods stores 1vlillions of dollars, seasonally a djusted 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1965: Sept Oct Nov Dec 1966: Jan___ Feb Mar Apr May June__ July Aug Sept v Oct 9 Nov v __ 54, 233 59, 661 60, 746 61, 106 65, 594 68, 692 73, 459 79, 536 79, 610 80, 655 82, 214 83, 591 84, 669 84, 744 86, 991 85, 455 85, 426 86, 957 86, 678 86, 995 86, 786 87, 179 86, 922 91, 891 94, 747 95, 813 100, 627 105, 578 111, 051 120, 896 117, 907 118, 432 119, 279 120, 896 121, 570 122, 542 123, 630 124, 700 126, 179 127, 584 128, 714 130, 043 130, 860 132, 205 10, 257 11, 491 11, 656 11, 988 12, 674 13, 382 14, 527 15, 595 15, 684 15, 777 16, 164 16, 153 16, 981 16, 779 17, 334 16, 966 16, 880 17, 438 16, 989 17, 217 16, 992 17, 061 21 The term "business" also includes manufacturing (see page 22). Monthly average for year and total for month. s4 Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. Beginning 1961, data include Alaska and Hawaii. s Beginning 1960, data include Alaska and Hawaii. 12, 739 13, 879 14, 120 14, 488 14, 936 16, 048 16, 977 18, 274 18, 055 18, 123 18, 171 18, 274 18, 231 18, 580 18, 881 19, 008 19, 149 19, 310 19, 444 19, 742 19, 621 19, 819 16, 696 17, 951 18, 294 18, 234 19, 613 20, 536 21, 802 23, 662 23, 753 24, 330 24, 647 24, 816 25, 023 25, 263 25, 536 24, 949 24, 475 25, 394 25, 362 25, 572 25, 703 25, 640 25, 413 5,284 5,967 5,880 5,581 6,210 6,627 7,014 7,810 7,768 8,001 8,092 8,252 8,324 8,399 8,649 7, 939 7,506 8,056 8, 106 8, 358 8,394 8, 265 8,019 11, 412 11, 984 12, 414 12, 654 13, 402 13, 909 14, 788 15, 853 15, 985 16, 329 16, 555 16, 564 16, 699 16, 864 16, 887 17, 010 16, 969 17, 338 17, 256 17, 214 17, 309 17, 375 17, 394 13, 587 14, 276 14, 890 15, 273 16, 282 16, 997 17, 994 19, 413 18, 614 18, 740 18, 937 19, 413 19, 422 19, 498 19, 550 19, 656 19, 714 19, 914 19, 982 20, 112 20, 114 20, 184 NOTE.—Series revised beginning 1959 for total business and wholesale and beginning 1965 for retail inventories. Source: Department of Commerce. 21 MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND NEW ORDERS Manufacturers1 inventories rose more than $800 million (seasonally adjusted) in October. million and the inventory-shipments ratio was unchanged at 1.70. Shipments gained $400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) MANUFACTURERS7 SHIPMENTS MANUFACTURERS' INVENTORIES '50 40 30 50 DURABLE GOODS \ 20 NONDURABLE GOODS 40 10 30 30 MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS. DURABLE GOODS '20 20 ,n.o«-"r" NONDURABLE GOODS 10 1963 1964 1965 1966 1963 1966 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufac turers' shi pments 1 Manufact urers' inv entories 2 Ma nufaeture rs j new orde rs 1 . Total NonDurable durable goods goods Total NonDurable durable goods goods Durab le goods Total Total : NonMachinery durable and goods equipment Manufacturers' inventoryshipratio 3 Millions of dollars seasonal y adjuste d 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1965: Sept Oct Nov Dec 1966: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct » 27, 280 30, 219 30, 796 30, 884 33, 308 34, 774 37, 129 40, 279 40, 173 40, 548 41, 403 42, 622 42, 665 42, 702 44, 121 43,540 44, 071 44, 125 44, 327 44, 206 44, 091 44, 478 13, 572 15, 544 15, 817 15, 532 17, 184 18, 071 19, 231 21, 020 20, 924 21, 146 21, 606 22, 316 22, 307 22, 433 23, 238 22,708 22, 915 22, 898 23, 031 22, 874 22, 971 23, 445 13, 708 14, 675 14, 979 15, 352 16, 124 16, 704 17, 898 19, 258 19, 249 19, 402 19, 797 20, 306 20, 358 20, 269 20, 883 20,832 21, 156 21, 227 21, 296 21, 332 21, 120 21, 033 1 2 Monthly average for year and total for month. Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. 3 50, 070 52, 707 53, 814 55, 087 57, 753 60, 147 62, 944 68, 015 66, 267 66, 642 67, 192 68, 015 68, 594 69, 040 69, 648 70,346 71, 103 71, 949 72, 958 74, 110 74, 884 75, 706 30, 095 31, 839 32, 360 32, 646 34, 326 36, 028 38, 412 42, 324 41, 300 41, 523 41, 869 42, 324 42, 589 42, 884 43, 273 43,779 44, 275 45, 003 45, 790 46, 814 47, 568 48, 297 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. 22 19, 975 20, 868 21, 454 22, 441 23, 427 24, 119 24, 532 25, 691 24, 967 25,119 25, 323 25, 691 26, 005 26, 156 26, 375 26,567 26, 828 26, 946 27, 168 27, 296 27, 316 27, 409 26, 901 13, 170 30, 679 15, 951 30, 115 15, 223 31, 061 15, 664 33, 167 17, 085 35, 036 18, 300 37, 697 19, 803 41, 023 21, 728 41, 483 22, 163 41,843 22, 425 42, 234 22, 389 43, 868 23, 403 43, 986 23, 578 44, 129 23, 741 45, 833 24, 888 45,064 24,197 45, 321 24, 276 45, 833 24, 593 45, 625 24, 371 44, 842 23, 512 46, 318 25, 274 45, 106 24, 089 Source: Department of Commerce. 2,354 2,878 2,791 2,854 3, 090 3, 326 3,706 4, 140 4, 153 4, 249 4,325 4, 583 4, 450 4, 584 4, 587 4,788 4,845 4,753 5, 092 4,813 4,906 4,761 13, 731 14, 728 14, 892 15, 397 16, 082 16, 736 17, 895 19, 295 19, 320 19,418 19, 845 20, 465 20, 408 20, 388 20, 945 20,867 21, 045 21,240 21, 254 21,330 21, 044 21, 017 1.84 1.70 1.76 1.74 1. 70 1. 69 1.64 1.61 1. 65 1.64 1.62 1.60 1. 61 I. 62 1. 58 1. 62 1. 61 1. 63 1. 65 1.68 1.70 1.70 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS The U.S. export surplus (seasonally adjusted) widened in October as a 1% percent expansion in exports combined with a 2 percent fall in imports. The surplus was above the average monthly rate during the first 9 months of 1966, but still below the rate prevailing in recent years. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3.0 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3.0 1.0 I960 1966 J/SEE NOTE 1 BELOW. SOURCE, DEPARTMENT Of Period COMMERCE [Millions of dollars] M erehandi 36 expoi•ts M«jrchandis e impoirts MerchanI)omestic expor ts Total ( mcludGener al 2imImpo rts for <jonsum]ption 3 dise ing reexports) * por ts trade Food, Crude ManuFood, Crude Manusurplus, matebever- mateSeasonSeason- Unad- Total » 4 bever4 facfacseasonages, rials ally ad- Unad- Total ages, rials ally ad- justed tured tured ally adand to- and and to- and justed justed justed goods goods justed bacco fuel bacco fuel Monthly average : 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1965: Oct Nov Dec 1966: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 1,364 1,367 1,634 1,679 1,745 1,869 2,139 2,214 2,842 2,408 2,S56 2,249 2,885 2,594 2, SSI 2,864 2,486 2,460 2,460 2,580 2,621 2,420 2,440 2,551 2, 133 2,210 2,747 2,465 2,506 2,468 2,329 2,278 2,431 2,626 224 1,351 254 1,352 250 238 324 1,617 263 1,659 286 318 1,723 307 277 342 1,846 311 362 2, 110 387 377 356 2,185 U nadjust ed 2,387 431 383 2,407 459 403 444 2,520 416 2, 105 374 324 332 2,177 396 486 2,707 366 2,422 437 339 372 2,457 405 412 379 2,430 2,298 396 328 2,244 354 448 2,389 469 349 2, 586 467 400 962 931 1,072 1,083 1,157 1,218 1,364 1,438 1,530 1,525 1,614 1,359 1,468 1,822 1,624 1,650 1,617 1,558 1,434 1,543 1,711 J Total excludes Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program. 2 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments, s Imported merchandise released from Customs custody for entry into U.S. 1,105 1,302 1,251 1,226 1,366 1,429 1,557 1, 781 1,885 1,952 1,892 1,986 1,993 2,078 2,188 2,054 2, 115 2, 207 2,148 2,810 2,260 1,876 2,017 2,009 1,829 1,822 2,246 2,071 2,077 2, 194 2,072 2, 180 2,294 2,278 342 1,101 296 382 1,285 296 283 1,251 379 1,221 286 361 1,354 306 381 1,417 320 386 332 1,550 413 1,773 335 448 U aadjust ed 2,004 462 409 1,953 424 417 494 429 2,130 1,801 461 325 352 1,806 419 414 523 2,225 378 2,004 446 2,050 359 456 2,176 500 388 348 2,051 445 344 2,216 523 2,287 428 468 2,312 426 449 433 575 556 539 630 666 756 933 259 65 383 453 379 440 582 433 1,061 1,034 1, 140 974 956 1,225 1, 111 1,181 1,207 1, 182 1,286 1,319 1, 339 457 456 468 SIS 842 522 198 810 871 254 812 269 861 consumption channels, entries into bonded manufacturing warehouses, and ores and crude metals (after smelting and refining) in bonded warehouses. * Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. Source: Department of Commerce. 23 U.S. EXPORTS AND IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES According to revised data, the U.S. surplus on goods and services declined again in the third quarter, falling almost $700 million to $4.7 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate). This deterioration was due largely to a continued rapid rise in merchandise imports, up $1.6 billion over the second quarter, and only partially offset by a $1.3 billion increase in merchandise exports/ the net effect of other items was also unfavorable. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 50 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 50 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 40 40 EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES 30 30 •—1—/ IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES 20 20 10 J 1960 L. J 1961 J L 1965 1964 1963 1962 L 1966 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars] Period 1959 1960 1961 1962.. _ 1963.. _ 1964 1965 _ 1965: I. II Ill IV 1966: I_ II... m> 1 Total Exports of good s and sei'vices Incoirle on investinents MerMilichan-1 tary GovPridise sales vate ernment Balance on Other services Total 23, 489 27, 244 28, 575 30, 278 32, 339 36, 958 38, 993 16, 295 19, 489 19, 954 20, 604 22, 071 25, 297 26, 276 302 335 402 656 657 747 844 2,694 349 3,849 3,001 349 4,070 3,561 380 4,278 3,954 471 4,593 4, 156 498 4,957 4,932 460 5, 522 512 5,972 5,389 Seasjonally adjusted 35, 104 40, 544 40, 064 40, 260 22, 500 27, 192 27, 304 28, 108 800 916 796 864 5,688 5,880 5,284 4,704 556 584 596 312 5,560 5,972 6,084 6,272 28, 656 32, 348 32, 980 34, 160 41, 980 42, 288 43, 792 28, 684 792 28, 444 1, 040 29, 756 5,524 5,720 596 596 6,384 6,488 35, 704 36, 848 39, 048 Adjusted from customs data for differences in timing and coverage. 24 Impor ts of good s and ser\dees Merchan-l dise 23, 342 15, 310 23, 198 14, 732 22, 954 14, 510 25, 148 16, 187 26, 442 16, 992 28, 468 18, 621 32, 036 21, 488 annual ra tes Source: Department of Commerce. Mili- Other goods tary and expend- servservices itures ices 3, 107 3,069 2,981 3,083 2, 936 2,834 2,881 4,925 5,397 5,463 5,878 6,514 7,013 7,667 147 4,046 5,621 5, 130 5,897 8,490 6, 957 18, 624 21, 924 22, 380 23, 024 2,656 2,804 2,980 3,084 7 7 7 8 376 620 620 052 6,448 8, 196 7,084 6,100 24,016 25, 048 26, 636 3,416 8 272 3,596 8 204 6,276 5,440 4,744 U.S. BALANCE OF INTERNATIONAL PAYMENTS In the third quarter, according to revised estimates, the U.S. deficit on the liquidity basis was $872 million (seasonally adjusted annual rate), up from the second quarter rate of $564 million. During the same period the balance on official reserve transactions showed a surplus approaching an annual rate of $3.8 billion, by far the largest quarterly surplus since data on this measure became available in 1960. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BALANCE, OFFICIAL RESERVE TRANSACTIONS BASIS -10 -10 I960 1966 SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Changes in gold, convertiErrors ble currenOfficial To foreigrn official Foreign and uncies and 5 Short- capital, Other hold ers recorded Liquid- reserve To other IMF gold l term longnet transtransforeign tranche ity term actions basis 2 actions holders 6 position NonLiquid basis 3 (increase liquid (-)) — 926 -77 736 423 -3,870 1,035 7 -863 -1, 348 -941 -3,881 -3,402 366 1,7 449 289 2, 143 -2, 370 -1,347 -1, 556 681 — 1, 025 707 -1,006 1,083 606 7 - 1, 227 -544 1, 021 -1, 159 -2, 203 - 2, 706 457 254 213 1,533 _7 -1,695 -785 -352 -2, 670 -2, 044 1,673 689 619 378 -1,961 - 2, 146 302 685 -1, Oil -2,798 -1, 546 1,073 1,554 171 761 - 1, 080 -17 — 429 -1,337 - 1, 305 194 100 1, 222 132 Season ally ad jus ted annusil rates Quai"terly tota Is, unadjiisted U.S. pr ivate capital, net Period 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 U.S. Government Direct grants investand capital, ment net l -1,986 — 1, 372 - 2, 769 — 1, 674 — 2, 780 — 1, 599 -3, 013 - 1, 654 -3, 581 -1,976 -3, 560 -2,416 -3,375 -3, 371 1965: I -3,208 II -3,796 III.... -2,972 IV -3,524 1966: TT II -4,848 -2, 656 404 -3,436 -2,276 -1,452 -2,924 -616 -3,792 -2,748 -3,856 -3,904 III*__ 1 Includes 2 -876 — 320 BaUince 1, 300 1, 084 — 524 1, 648 420 - 1, 004 1, 004 -108 -88 -152 0 -2,788 -2,472 904 -436 956 — 960 -2, 136 928 — 320 -1,328 -4,632 -860 -107 253 697 -23 -16 -18 157 203 — 150 712 -633 -964 -856 3,784 -851 58 -614 25 254 105 475 26 1, 243 1, 156 — 1, 188 -2, 204 -564 3,840 — 668 -872 certain special Government transactions. Equals changes in liquid liabilities to foreign official holders, other foreign holders, and changes in official reserve assets consisting of gold, convertible currencies, and the U.S. gold tranche position in the IMF. 3 Equals changes in liquid and nonliquid liabilities to foreign official holders and changes in official reserve assets consisting of gold, convertible currencies, and the U.S. gold tranche position in the IMF. * Includes short-term official and banking liabilities and foreign holdings of U.S. 5 Government bonds and notes. Central banks, governments, and U.S. liabilities to the IMF arising from reversible gold sales to, and gold deposits with, the U.S. Chan ges in sel scted liabilitie s (decreag56 (-))« 842 68 41 271 424 68 82 8 6 Private holders; includes banks and international and regional organizations; excludes IMF. 7 Includes change in Treasury liabilities to certain foreign military agencies; excluding these changes, data ($ millions) are 1,259 (1960), 741 (1961), and 919 (1962). 8 On Sept. 30, U.S. reserve assets consisted of gold stock, $13,356 million (down $173 million from June 30); IMF position including gold portion of increased U.S. subscription, $372 million; convertible currencies, $1,148 million. NOTE.—Data exclude military grant-aid and U.S. subscriptions to IMF. Source: Department of Commerce. OR PRICES CONSUMER PRICES The consumer price index increased 0.4 percent in October. Food showed no change. All other components of the index increased, with durable goods up 0.8 percent, services up 0.5 percent, and nondurable goods, other than food, up 0.4 percent. Index, 1957-59= 100 Index, 1957-59=100 105 100 100 1960 1966 J/SEE NOTE PELOW. •SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS All items Period [1957-59=100] Services Co mmodities3 Comm odities leg5s food Services All comAll Food Rent less modities Nonservices All Durable durable rent 89.4 94.0 946 94.9 95.3 90. 5 94. 4 94.8 91.9 95.4 95.5 94.7 92.8 96.5 95. 9 96.5 98. 5 97.8 98.8 98. 5 96.6 98.3 96. 1 99. 1 100.8 101.9 100.0 100.3 100. 2 99. 9 99.8 100. 1 100.9 100. 3 101. 5 103.6 101. 2 101.0 103. 2 101. 6 101.7 101.4 107.4 101.7 102. 6 106.6 100. 9 103. 1 102. 3 102. 6 102. 0 110.0 108.8 100.8 103. 2 1044 103.2 103. 6 102. 8 112. 1 101.8 103.8 110.9 105.7 104. 1 102. 1 103. 5 104.8 114. 5 105. 1 113.0 106.8 105. 2 106.4 104.4 103. 0 117.0 105.7 115. 2 107.8 106.4 107.2 108.8 105.1 102.6 120.0 117.8 108.9 106.9 105.3 102. 1 121. 0 109.7 108.0 118.7 109.2 107.1 109.7 105.6 102.4 119.0 108.3 109.3 121.3 107.4 102.4 110.6 105.7 108.4 119.3 121.6 109.5 107.4 111.4 101.9 105.3 108.0 119.5 109.7 121.8 108.0 113. 1 105.4 108.3 119.7 122.0 101. 8 109.8 108. 4 113. 9 102. 0 105. 6 122. 5 109. 9 108. 6 120. 1 114.0 106.0 102.3 110. 1 108.8 121. 1 123.6 109. 0 108. 8 113.5 106.3 102.5 121. 5 110. 2 109.3 124 1 109. 0 113.9 106.4 102.6 110.2 109.5 122.0 124.8 114. 3 109. 3 103.0 122. 6 110. 3 106.7 109.7 125.5 109. 8 115. 8 123.0 106. 6 103. 0 109.6 125.9 110.6 110.0 115. 6 107.0 102.7 126. 5 110.5 123.5 110.7 110.3 115.6 107.6 103.5 127. 1 110.9 124. 1 111.0 BeiBinning with January 19C 4, new indea: with revise1 weights, ccverage, and J 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960... 1961. 1962 _ 1963 1 1964 1965 1965: Oet_ Nov Dec. _ 1966: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June.July Aug Sept Oct _. .. 93. 3 94.7 98.0 100.7 101. 5 103. 1 104. 2 105.4 106. 7 108. 1 109.9 110.4 110.6 111.0 111.0 111. 6 112. 0 112.5 112.6 112. 9 113.3 113. 8 114. 1 114. 5 'See Note. NOTE.— Prior to January 1964. indexes revised to reflect transfer of ho meownership from services to durable commodities 26 L.1 _ samp lias proceduires. For d<stalls, see D epartment of Labor rel aase, Major Changes in the C(Wisumer Price Index, March 3, 1964. Sottree: Depart!ment of Lalx>r. WHOLESALE PRICES The wholesale price index fell 0.3 percent in November. prices dropped 1.8 percent, processed foods 1.3 percent. This was the second consecutive month of decline. Farm Industrial commodity prices increased by 0.1 percent. Index, 1957-59=100 Index, 1957-59=100 115 115 /x../ 110 COMMODITIES OTHER THAN FARM PRODUCTS AND FOODS 105 110 105 (INDUSTRIALS) 100 100 95 95 90 90 1960 1966 SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 1 100.4 100.6 100.7 100.3 100. 6 100.3 100.5 102.5 103. 1 103. 5 104.1 104.6 105.4 105. 4 105. 5 105. 6 105. 7 106. 4 106. 8 106.8 106.2 105.9 105.8 105.8 102.3 101.6 All commodities Period 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1965: Oct Nov Dec 1966: Jan_« Feb Mar Apr__ May__ _ _ June__ July Aug Sept Oct Nov p 3 Week ended : 1966: Dec 6 13" [1957-59=100] Commodil/ies other thanfarm M-oducts aicidfoods(i]idustrials) Consulner finIndus- Indus- ProducFarm Procished g oods exAll intrial in- er fintrial essed prodcludin g food dustricrude termedi- ished ucts foods als 1 mate- ate maDurNon3 goods terials rials durable able 102.9 103. 6 99. 5 96. 9 99. 4 100. 2 100.1 99.3 99.2 97. 2 102. 3 101. 3 102. 1 101. 0 100.8 101.3 96.9 100.0 101. 3 102. 3 9a 3 101. 4 101.5 100.9 96.0 100.7 100. 8 97. 2 102. 5 100. 1 100.5 101.5 97.7 101.2 100. 8 95. 6 99.9 102.9 100.0 101. 6 101. 1 95. 7 100.7 94 3 103. 1 99.6 99. 5 101.9 94. 3 101.0 101.2 97. 1 100.2 104 1 99. 9 101.6 98.4 105.1 102.5 100.9 105.4 101.5 99.6 102.8 99.4 102. 8 106.9 102.0 101.9 105.6 99.5 103. 3 107.6 100. 3 103. 2 102.1 102.7 105.9 103. 6 99.6 103.0 109.4 103.2 102.2 102.6 106.0 99.6 103.7 104.5 110.3 103.5 102.4 106.2 104.0 99.7 103.9 107. 4 111. 8 103. 8 102. 6 105.7 106. 6 99.7 104 0 106. 8 104. 0 111.5 102. 9 106.8 106.6 99.7 1041 106. 4 110. 6 104 3 106. 1 103.4 107.0 104 3 99. 8 104.5 110.5 1047 105. 9 103.8 107.6 100.2 104 5 104. 2 110. 6 104 9 106. 5 103.9 107.9 100. 1 1049 111. 7 107. 8 105. 2 106. 4 1040 108. 1 100.2 105.0 108. 1 113. 8 105. 2 103.3 104 2 108. 3 100. 1 105. 2 108. 7 113. 8 105. 2 102.8 104 1 108. 4 100.0 105. 4 104, 4 112. 4 102. 8 105. 3 104 1 109. 1 100.9 105. 5 102.5 110.9 105.4 102.7 104.1 109.6 101.1 105.7 ___ __ _ 110.4 110.7 Coverage of the subgroups does not correspond exactly to coverage of this index. 2 Excludes intermediate materials for food manufacturing and manufactured animal feeds; includes, in part, grain products for further processing. 3 105.3 105.3 Weekly series based on smaller sample than monthly series. Source: Department of Labor. 27 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS In the month ended November 15, the parity ratio fell by 2 points. This was the third consecutive month of decline. Prices received by farmers fell about 3 percent and prices paid were unchanged. Index, 1957-59 = 100 Index, 1957-59 = 100 120 PRICES PAID, INTEREST, T>\XES, AND WAGE RATES \ 110 1AA -<*""%„« — ^^V^ ^^"^^ 90 —• \X~ /^y 1 ! t ! I t f 1 I?1 f I ! f 1 f t f I I f ^^S»«« 1^^^ ,, <-& *""* % "/v. ^•^"^^^ J ^^** +m>mm+^">"m ^£ ^^^^^^^^ f 7/ y^y^ / jw^ ^\. J ' 110 \ ^ 100 rS PRICES RECEIVED (ALL FAR/v\ PRODUCTS] t i i ii 1 t i i it i i i i i 1 i i f if i i ifiIiii ? f 1 ?I I I 111 1 1 I t t 1 1 t f f 1 f f 1 RAT oi/ 100 90 RATIO 100 on 90 PARITY RATIO 1 1 X "" *OX"", 80 V ,..,,. ^u • %* 70 t . . . . 1 .... i , . i , . ! , , , , , 1960 1961 . , ! 11 ! , I , I , 1962 i t t . i I, . . < . 1963 N^ ^ .^""S,,,,, , , , ,,1, ,. .i , , , , , 1 , , , , , 1965 1964 ^^^^- *I1I»«M»» 80 '* , , . , . ! , , , . , 1966 70 U RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES, ON 1910-14=100 BASE. SOURCE. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Prices i-eceived by farmers Period All farm products Crops 95 105 97 101 104 100 99 99 99 99 99 102 104 101 100 107 98 107 102 104 103 99 103 98 107 100 108 101 112 104 111 _ 104 110 106 109 107 109 June 15 108 110 July 15 110 113 Aug 15 108 112 Sept 15 106 110 Oct 15 104 107 Nov 15 103 1 Percentage ratio of index of prices received l)j farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates on 1910-14=100 base. 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1965: Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 1966: Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 28 Livestock and products Prices3 paid by farmers All items, interest, taxes, and wage rates Family living items Index, 1957-59 = 100 95 88 96 94 98 99 106 100 100 102 100 101 102 98 102 103 102 98 105 99 103 95 104 107 91 107 105 110 101 107 110 106 107 110 107 107 112 111 108 112 114 108 112 118 109 113 118 110 114 113 110 114 110 110 114 110 110 114 111 110 114 116 111 116 115 111 114 115 111 110 115 111 Source: Department of Agriculture. Production items 95 98 100 102 101 101 103 104 103 105 105 105 106 107 108 108 108 108 108 109 109 110 109 109 Parity ratio * 83 82 85 81 80 79 80 78 76 77 77 77 80 80 82 81 SO 79 79 80 81 80 79 77 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY SUPPLY The money supply, seasonally adjusted, showed a small decline in November. level this year. Demand deposits fell to their lowest BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 180 180 MONEY SUPPLY 140 140 TIME DEPOSITS AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS \ Y^ 100 100 60 60 t t t t i I^ I960 1961 1963 1962 1964 1966 1965 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE) BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Averages of daily figures, millions of dollars] M oney supp>iy M oney supp>iy Period 1960: 1961: 1962: 1963: 1964: 1965: 1965: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Oct Nov Dec 1966: Jan Feb . Mar Apr_ Mav June July Aug Sept__ Oct p Nov , 1 Deposits 2 Total 141. 1 145. 5 147. 5 153. 1 159. 7 167.2 165.2 165. 6 167.2 168.0 168.2 169.3 170. 9 170. 2 171. 1 169.6 169. 6 170.5 169.6 169.2 Currency outside banks Seasonally7 28. 9 29. 6 30. 6 32. 5 34. 2 36.3 36.0 36. 1 36.3 36.6 36.8 36. 9 37. 2 37.3 37.4 37.7 37. 8 37.9 37.9 38.0 Demand deposits adjustec 112. 1 116. 0 116. 9 120. 6 125. 4 130.9 129.3 129. 5 130.9 131.4 131.4 132. 3 133.7 132. 9 133.7 132. 0 131. 8 132. 6 131. 7 131. 2 at all commercial banks. Effective June 9, balances accumulated for pajTnent of pers onal loans (a bout $1.1 billion) are excluded from time deposits and from loans at all comm(jrcial Time deposits 1 Total Currency outside banks U.S. Time deposits l Demand deposits Government demand deposits 1 1Jnad justed 2 72. 9 82. 7 97. 8 112. 2 126. 6 146. 9 143.7 145. 5 146.9 147.8 148.5 149. 5 151. 4 153.0 153. 7 155. 3 156. 6 157. 1 156. 8 156. 9 144. 7 149. 4 151. 6 157. 3 164. 0 172.0 165.7 167.3 172.0 173.0 167.8 167.8 171. 6 166.9 168.8 167.9 166. 9 169.5 170. 1 171.0 29. 6 30. 2 31. 2 33. 1 35.0 37.1 36.0 36.5 37.1 36.5 36.4 36.6 36. 8 37. 0 37. 3 37.8 37. 8 37.9 38.0 38.5 115. 2 119. 2 120.3 124. 1 129. 1 134.9 129. 7 130.8 134.9 136.5 131.4 131. 3 134. 8 129. 9 131. 5 130. 1 129. 0 131. 5 132. 1 132. 5 2 72. 1 81.8 96.7 111.0 125. 2 145.2 143. 5 144.3 145.2 147.3 148.7 150. 2 152. 2 153. 9 154. 1 155. 8 157.0 156. 9 156. 6 155. 6 4. 7 4. 9 5. 6 5. 1 5. 5 4.6 5.0 4. 1 4.6 3.8 5.2 4.6 3. 1 7.2 6.3 8. 1 5. 2 4. 5 4. 8 3.7 N OTE.— See N ote, p. 31. Q S( )urce: Board of Governor 3 of tbe Fede ral Reserve £ ystem. 29 SELECTED LIQUID ASSETS HELD BY THE PUBLIC The public's holding of liquid assets rose by $4 billion (seasonally adjusted) in November. banks and currency accounted for most of the gain. Deposits at commercial BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, END OF MONTH 600 600 500 500 400 400 SAVING TYPE ASSETS I/ 300 300 .DEMAND DEPOSITS AND_ CURRENCY 200 200 100 1960 1961 1962 1965 1964 1963 JL/ASSETS OTHER THAN iEMAHD DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY. SOURCE IOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 1966 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Total selected liquid assets End of period 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1965: Oct Nov. Dec 1966: Jan Feb Mar Apr* May June* July"___ Aug* Sept* Oct" Nov* _. _ _ _ 393.9 399. 2 424. 6 459.0 495.4 530. 5 572.9 565.1 568.3 572.9 578. 5 577.5 585.5 587. 0 585. 8 3 588. 6 587.8 592.3 593. 6 595.4 599.5 Demand deposits and currency l 139.7 138.4 142. 6 144.8 149.6 156. 7 164.0 161. 1 160.4 164. 0 164.8 162.8 167.0 166. 6 164. 1 166. 4 164. 3 166. 9 166. 0 165. 9 167.7 Time c eposits Commercial banks 67.4 73. 1 82.5 98. 1 112. 9 127. 1 147. 1 144. 0 146.5 147. 1 149.2 149.4 151. 1 152. 3 153.2 3 153. 4 155. 6 156. 1 156.2 156. 1 157.7 * Agrees in concept with money supply, p. 29, except for deduction of demand deposits held by mutual savings banks and savings and loan associations. Data for2 last Wednesday of month. Excludes holdings of Government agencies and trust funds, domestic commercial and mutual savings banks, Federal Reserve Banks, and beginning February 1960, savings and loan associations. 30 Mutual savings banks 34.9 36. 2 3as 41.4 44.5 49. 0 52.6 52.0 52.3 52.6 52.8 53.0 53.1 53. 1 53.3 53.4 53.7 53.9 54.2 54. 6 54.8 3 Postal Savings System 0.9 .8 .6 .5 .5 .4 .3 .3 .3 .3 .3 .3 .3 .3 .3 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .11 Savings and loan shares 54.3 61. 8 70.5 79.8 90. 9 101.4 109.7 108.4 109.3 109.7 109.8 110.6 111.4 111. 0 111. 2 111.4 110.7 111. 3 112.2 112. 1 112.6 U.S. Government U.S. Gov- securities ernment maturing savings3 within bonds year 2 47.9 47.0 47.4 47.6 49.0 49. 9 50.5 50.1 50.1 50.5 50.5 50.3 50.3 50.4 50.4 50.4 50. 6 50.6 50.5 50. 6 50.6 See footnote 3, page 29. NOTE.-—See Note, p. 31. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 48.8 41.9 42.6 46.8 48.1 46.1 48.6 49. 1 49.4 48.6 51.2 51.0 52. 1 53.3 53.3 53.4 52.7 53.3 54.4 56.0 55.9 BANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, DEBITS, AND RESERVES Net borrowed reserves fell to $228 million in November, a decline of over $200 million from October and the lowest level since February. Loans and investments (seasonally adjusted) remained at nearly the same levels as in October. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 350 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 350 ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 300 300 250 250 200 50 INVESTMENTS IN OTHER SECURITIES 1966 1960 SOURCE, BOARD OF GOVERNORS Of THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCR. OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS All comnlercial bank s (s easonally adjusted daita) Total Investi nents Loans, loans excluding and U.S. Gov- Other invest- intersecuribank ernment ments securities ties End of period 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1965: Oct Nov Dec 1966: Jan Feb Mar Apr * May v June*-. July" Aug p Sept" Oct" Nov * _ 4 185. 9 194. 5 209.6 227.9 246.2 267. 2 294. 4 289.9 291. 5 294.4 297.4 297.5 300. 3 302. 7 304.3 305. 4 308.2 309.8 307.6 307. 1 307.4 4 5 107. 5 113. 8 120. 5 134. 1 149. 7 167. 4 192.0 188.6 189.8 192.0 194.5 196.2 198. 6 200. 7 202. 0 203. 7 205. 9 206. 1 205. 5 206. 8 206.8 Billions of dollars 20. 5 57. 9 20. 8 59. 8 05. 2 23. 9 29. 2 64. 5 35. 0 61. 5 61. 1 38.7 44.8 57. 7 43.9 57. 4 44,2 57. 5 57.7 44.8 58.0 44.9 55.9 45.4 45.7 56. 0 46. 2 55. 8 47.2 55. 0 54. 5 47. 1 5 54. 1 48. 2 47. 8 55. 9 54. 0 48.0 52. 2 48. 1 52.7 47.9 *2 Commercial and industrial loans. Debits during period to demand deposit accounts except interbank and U.S. Government. 3 Averages of daily figures. Annual data are for December. * See footnote 3, page 29. Bank Weekly debits reporting outside large commercial New York City (224 banks centers) , seasonally Business adjusted loans l annual2 rates 6 30. 7 32. 2 32.9 35. 2 38.8 42. 1 50.6 48. 2 49. 0 50.6 50.3 51.1 52. 6 52. 5 53. 5 55. 8 58. 7 58.3 59.4 59. 5 59. 9 1, 666 1, 736 1,882 2,021 2,199 2,696 2,997 8,069 3,179 3,250 S, 198 3,264 3,397 3,390 3,348 3,377 3,609 S,4?4 3,617 3,487 3 Aill member banks Total reserves 18, 932 19, 283 20, 118 20, 040 20, 746 21,609 22, 719 21, 958 21, 958 22, 719 22, 750 22, 233 22, 160 22, 528 22, 487 22, 534 23, 090 22, 655 23, 240 23, 333 23, 247 Borrowings at Free Excess Federal reserves Reserve reserves Banks Millions of dollars 482 906 87 756 149 568 572 304 327 536 411 243 452 454 344 490 369 452 452 454 358 402 371 478 551 305 626 358 722 370 322 674 408 766 728 338 398 766 302 733 611 390 -424 669 419 268 209 168 -2 -146 -83 2 -44 -107 — 246 -268 -352 -352 -358 -390 -368 -431 -221 5 Beginning July 1966, certain certificates of CCC and Export-Import Bank totaling about $1 billion are included in other securities rather than in loans. 6 New series; see Federal Reserve Bulletin, August 1966. NOTE.—Data include Alaska and Hawaii. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 31 CONSUMER AND REAL ESTATE CREDIT All major types of consumer credit increased during October. On a seasonally adjusted basis, instalment credit extended exceeded repayments by $380 million—a relatively modest net increase. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 100 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 100 TOTAL CONSUMER CREDIT OUTSTANDING NON1NSTALMENT CREDIT 1966 COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 Sept Get Nov Dec 1966: Jan Feb Mar Apr Mav june_ July Aug Sept Oct I Millions of dollars] Consulaaer credit outstandin g (end of period ; u nad justed) 1instalment NonAutomoTotal Total * Personal instal-2 bile ment paper loans 42, 334 44,970 45, 129 51, 542 56, 028 57, 678 63, 164 70, 461 78, 442 87, 884 S3, 801 84, 465 85, 291 87, 884 87, 027 86, 565 87, 059 88, 184 89,092 90, 070 90, 650 91, 483 91, 639 91, 899 31, 720 33, 867 33, 642 39, 245 42, 832 43, 527 48, 034 54, 158 60, 548 68, 565 65, 979 66,511 67, 168 68, 565 68, 314 68, 279 68, 827 69, 543 70,209 71, 194 71, 862 72, 640 72, 829 73, 073 14, 420 15, 340 14, 152 16, 420 17, 688 17, 223 19, 540 22, 433 25, 195 28, 843 28, 175 28, 393 28, 612 28, 843 28, 789 28, 894 29, 248 29, 597 29,908 30, 402 30, 680 30, 918 30, 793 30, 852 6,789 7,582 8, 116 9, 386 10, 480 11, 256 12, 643 14, 464 16, 228 IS, 354 17,911 17, 950 18, 070 18, 354 18, 325 18, 396 18, 532 18, 747 18,927 19, 156 19, 306 19, 577 19, 701 19, 737 lAlso includes other consumer goods paper, and repair and modernization loans, not shown separately. 2 Consists of single-payment loans, charge accounts, and service credit. s End of period, unadjusted. 32 10, 614 11, 103 11, 487 12, 297 13, 196 14, 151 15, 130 16, 303 17, 894 19,319 17, 822 17, 954 18, 123 19,319 18, 713 IS, 286 18, 232 18, 641 18,883 18, 876 18, 788 18, 843 18, 810 18, 826 Consum er instalme nt credit e \tended and n^paid (seas onally adju sted) To bal Automob ile paper Extended 39, 868 42, 016 40, 119 48, 052 49, 560 48, 396 55, 126 61, 295 67, 505 75, 508 6,434 6,425 6,530 6,489 6,544 6,492 6,673 6,505 6,472 6, 675 6,732 6,689 6,578 6,522 Repaid 37, 054 39, 868 40, 344 42, 603 45, 972 47, 700 50, 620 55, 171 61, 121 67, 495 5, 748 5, 805 5,831 5,855 5,947 5, 954 6,024 5,974 5,979 6, 126 6, 168 6,087 6, 103 6, 142 Extended 15, 515 16, 465 14, 226 17, 779 17, 654 16, 007 19, 796 22, 292 24, 435 27, 914 2,385 2,338 2,480 2,443 2,340 2,340 2,479 2,302 2,298 2,419 2,383 2,431 2,387 2,378 Repaid 14, 555 15, 545 15, 415 15, 579 16, 384 16, 472 17, 478 19, 400 21, 676 24, 267 2,056 2,080 2, 148 2,107 2, 115 2, 135 2,216 2, 145 2,159 2,211 2,238 2,223 2,213 2,244 Mortgage debt outstanding, nonfann 1- to 4family houses 3 99, 000 107, 600 117, 700 130, 900 141, 300 153, 100 166, 500 182, 200 197,600 213, 500 209, 500 213, 500 216, 700 220, 400 223, 100 NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning January and Aueust 1959, respectively. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Home Loan Bank Board. BOND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES Interest rates in November showed little change from the October levels. The Treasury bill rate began to move down in late November and by mid-December was almost 30 basis points below the November average. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM CORPORATE Aaa BONDS (MOODY'S) TAXABLE GOVERNMENT BONDS 1965 1960 SOURCE& SEE TABLE B&OW Period 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1965: Oct Nov Dec 1966: Jan Feb Mar Apr__ May June Julv Aiis Sept Oct Nov _ Week ended: 1966: N o v l 2 _ _ 19.. 26- _ Dec 3__ 10__ 17__ COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] High-grade U.S. Gove rnment seeur ity yields municipal 3-month bonds 3-5 year Taxable Treasury 2 3 (Standard4 & issues bonds bills i Poor's) 3.405 4. 33 4.08 3. 95 2.928 4. 02 3.99 3. 73 3.90 2. 378 3. 60 3.46 2. 778 3. 57 3.95 3. 18 3. 72 3. 157 4.00 3.23 3.549 4. 06 4. 15 3.22 4.21 3.954 4. 22 3.27 4.032 4. 33 4. 28 3.42 4.082 4. 46 4.34 3.47 4.362 4.77 4.43 3.56 4.596 4.89 4.43 3.52 5.02 4.670 4.61 3.63 4. 626 4. 94 4.63 3.72 4.611 4. 86 4. 55 3.59 4.642 4.94 4. 57 3.68 4.539 5. 01 4. 63 3. 77 5. 22 4.855 4.75 3.94 4. 932 5. 58 4. 80 4. 17 5. 356 5. 62 4. 79 4. 11 5. 387 5.38 4. 70 3. 97 5. 344 4. 74 5. 43 3. 93 5.432 5.459 5. 252 5. 202 5. 198 5.048 1 Eate on new issues within period. 2 3 4 April 1953 to date, bonds due or callable Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 6 5.45 5.47 5.43 5.34 5. 30 5. 09 4.73 4.77 4.76 4. 74 4. 76 *4. 65 Selected note and bond issues. 10 years and after. * Not charted. Data for first of the month, based on the maximum permissible interest rate (6 percent beginning October 1966) and 30-year mortgages paid in 15 years. 1966 3. 84 3.96 4. 03 4. 03 3. 91 3.84 Corporal ie bonds (Moo dy's) 4. 38 4.41 4.35 4.33 4 26 4.40 4.49 4. 56 4. 60 4.68 4.74 4.78 4. 92 4.96 4.98 5.07 5. 16 5. 31 5. 49 5.41 5. 35 5.05 5.19 5.08 5.02 4.86 4.83 4.87 4.93 4,95 5. 02 5.06 5. 12 5. 32 5.41 5.48 5. 58 5. 68 5. 83 6. 09 6. 10 6. 13 Prime commercial paper, 4-6 months 3. 97 3.85 2. 97 3. 26 3. 55 3. 97 4.38 4.38 4,38 4.65 4.82 4.88 5.21 5.38 5.39 5. 51 5. 63 5.85 5.89 6.00 6.00 5.35 5. 36 5.36 5. 37 5.38 *5.38 6. 11 6. 12 6. 16 6. 18 6. 17 6. 19 6.00 6.00 6.00 6. 00 6. 00 *6. 00 Aaa Baa FHA new home mortgage yields 3 5.77 6. 16 5. 78 5. 60 5.46 5.45 5.46 5.46 5. 49 5. 51 5.62 5.70 6.00 6. 32 6. 45 6.51 6. 58 6.63 Sources: Treasury Department, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Housing Administration, Standard & Poor's Corporation, and Moody's Investors Service. 33 COMMON STOCK PRICES, YIELD, AND EARNINGS Stock prices averaged higher in November than in October. Since early November prices have moved in a very narrow range. The dividend yield showed a moderate decline in November. Index, 1941-43 = 10 Index, 1941-43=10 WEEKLY 90 90 COMPOSITE PRICE INDEX FOR 500 COMMON STOCKS 80 80 RATIO RATIO PRICE/EARNINGS RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS 1960 1963 SOURCE: STANDARD AND POOR'S CORPORATION Period 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1965: Nov Dec 1966: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Week ended: 1966: Nov 11 18 25 Dec 2 _ _ _ 9 16 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total _ 1966 1965 1964 Total 55. 85 66. 27 62. 38 69.87 81.37 88.17 92. 15 91.73 93.32 92.69 88. 88 91. 60 86.78 86. 06 85. 84 80. 65 77. 81 77. 13 80. 99 59. 43 69. 99 65.54 73.39 86. 19 93.48 98. 02 97.66 99.56 99. 11 95. 04 98.17 92.85 92. 14 91. 95 86. 40 83. 11 82.01 86. 10 81.49 81.70 80.21 80.36 81.40 « 82. 32 86.66 86.88 85. 22 85.46 86. 67 87. 65 Price i ndex * Industrials Capital Consumers' goods goods 1941-4:3=10 47. 21 59.75 67.33 57.01 54.96 58.15 63.30 62.28 73.84 76. 34 85. 26 81.94 83. 75 91. 62 91.42 83.31 84.28 93.35 93.69 83.48 90. 28 78.96 93.54 79.28 75. 12 88.78 87.34 73.75 86. 38 73.87 79. 81 69. 91 74 74 67.89 72. 67 66. 67 77. 89 68. 25 77.64 79.29 77.27 78.70 80. 19 81. 51 68.86 69.38 67. 18 66. 92 67.46 69. 00 Railroads Dividend yield 2 (percent) 46.86 60.20 59.16 64.99 69. 91 76.08 76.72 75.39 74.50 71.87 69.21 70.06 68.49 67.51 67. 30 63. 41 63. 11 65. 41 68. 82 30. 31 32.83 30.56 37. 58 45.46 46.78 50. 23 51.03 53.68 54.78 51. 52 52. 33 47. 00 46. 35 45. 50 42. 12 40. 31 39. 44 41. 57 3. 47 2.98 3.37 3. 17 3. 01 3.00 2.96 3.05 3.02 3.06 3. 23 3. 15 3.30 3. 36 3. 37 3. 60 3. 75 3.76 3.66 69.15 69. 15 68. 35 68. 05 68. 28 69. 08 41.29 42.03 41.43 41. 21 41.46 41.74 3.63 3.60 3. 70 3.69 3.58 4 3. 54 Public utilities Price/ earnings ratio 3 17.09 21.06 16. 68 17. 62 18.08 17.08 17.61 16.31 14.71 13.92 1 3 Includes 500 common stocks: 425 are industrials: 50 are public utilities; and 25 Ratio of price index for last day in quarter to quarterly earnings (seasonally are railroads. Weekly indexes for capital and consumer goods are Wednesday adjusted annual rate). Annual ratios are averages of quarterly data. figures; all other weekly indexes are averages of daily figures. <Not charted. 5 Aggregate cash dividends (based on latest known annual rate) divided by Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation. the aggregate monthly market value of the stocks in the group. Annual yields are averages of monthly data. Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 34 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL ADMINISTRATIVE BUDGET RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES The budget deficit for trie first 5 months of fiscal 1967 was $16 billion. the deficit was $10 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF 125 125 In the corresponding period of fiscal 1966 DOLLARS NET BUDGET RECEIPTS NET BUDGET .EXPENDITURES 100 100 75 FIRST 5 MONTHS - 75 50 50 25 25 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1962 1967 1964 1963 1965 1966 1967 + 10 100 BUDGET SURPLUS (+) OR DEFICIT (ENLARGED SCALE) NATIONAL DEFENSE (-) 5 - 75 50 25 -15 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1962 1967 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 FISCAL YEARS 'fcOUKCtS'llfASURY DtPAftfMINT AND lUftiAU Of THt IUOOIT COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Net budg et expenditu res N ational defeiase l Period Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal Fiscal 1965: year 1960 year 1961 year 1962_ year \ 963 year 1964 _„„ year 1965 ..._...... year 1966 Oct __. __Nov Dec 1966: Jan Feb Mar Apr _ Mav _ _ June _ July Aug _ _ _ Sept -_ _ Oct Nov __ Cumulative totals, first 5 months: Fiscal year 1966 Fiscal year 1967 Net budget receipts Total 11.3 9.9 8.5 17.2 5. 7 7. 2 12.5 5.8 7.4 76. 6 81. 5 87. 8 92. 6 97.7 96.5 107.0 8. 8 9. 1 9.4 8.8 8.2 10.2 8.4 9. 1 9.4 10. 3 11.0 11.9 11.0 10.4 45. 7 47.5 51. 1 52. 8 54.2 50.2 57.7 4. 5 4. 5 5.1 4.6 4.5 5.6 5.0 4. 9 6. 3 49 5. 6 6. 0 5. 5 5. 5 41.2 43. 2 46. 8 48. 3 49.8 46.2 54.4 4.3 4.2 4.8 4. 4 4. 2 5.2 4.8 4.6 5. 9 4, 7 5.4 5.7 5.3 5.3 33.6 38.6 43. 5 54. 6 21.8 27. 5 20.5 26. 3 77.8 77.7 81. 4 86. 4 89.5 93. 1 104.7 3. 3 8. 1 9.6 6. 5 as 1 In addition to items shown, also includes atomic energy and defense related services. 2 Includes guaranteed securities held outside the Treasury. Not all of total is subject to statutory debt limitation. Digitized forshown FRASER Total Department of Defense, military Military assistance (3) 3 () (3) (3) (3) Budget surplus or deficit ( — ) Public debt (end of2 period) .1 .1 1. 2 -3.9 -6.4 -6.3 -8.2 -3.4 -2.3 — 5. 5 -1.0 .1 -2.4 .2 1. 1 1.6 — .6 7.7 —4 6 -3.8 .6 -5.2 -3.0 286. 5 289. 2 298. 6 306. 5 312.5 317.9 320.4 319. 4 322.2 321.4 322.4 323.7 321. 5 320. 1 322. 8 320.4 319.8 324 9 325. 3 327.4 329. 9 .3 .2 -10.0 -16. 0 322. 2 329. 9 1. 6 1. 4 1. 4 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.0 .1 .1 .1 .2 .1 .2 .1 s Less than $50 million. • NOTE.—Total budget receipts and expenditures exclude certain intragovernmental transactions. Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget. 35 FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC On a seasonally adjusted basis, cash receipts declined $3.3 billion in the third quarter/ while cash payments increased $4.0 billion, resultins in a cash deficit of $3.7 billion. BIUIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 •f5 Q *ffi *, i i a • 1 •• mn^n | " " | —5 ! EXCESS OF 0\SH PAYMENTS ! 1 I ' l 1960 -1-5 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED EXCESS OF C \SH RECEIPTS r | i \ I r ! 1963 1962 1961 1 ij * • ^ \ 1964 ! ! 1 1 \ 1 1 1 I ; 196<S 1965 -5 CALENDAR YEARS sOURCES-. TREASURY DEPARTM ENT AND BUREAU OF THE BUC GET cou»4CILOF ECONO*AIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Cash receipts from the public Period Fiscal year: 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 Calendar year: 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 ___ 1965 _ Quarterly total (calendar years) : 1964: IV__ 1965: I.... II III IV 1966: I_ II III . Cash payments to the public 97. 2 101. 9 109.7 115.5 119.7 134.5 99. 5 107. 7 113.8 120. 3 122.4 137.8 -2.3 -5.8 -4.0 -4.8 -2.7 -3.3 98. 3 97.9 106.2 112.6 115.0 123.4 94.7 104.7 111. 9 117. 2 120.3 127.9 Unadjusted 3.6 -6. 8 -5.7 -4.6 -5.2 -4.5 30. 6 28. 3 32.6 33. 1 34.0 34. 6 36.2 41.3 -6.3 2.4 5.1 -3.9 -8. 1 -1.3 10. 0 -6.7 24.3 30.7 37.7 29.2 25.8 33.3 46.2 34.6 1 Seasonally adjusted data Include accelerated corporate tax payments of about $0.9 billion in 1965, and $2.9 billion in 1966; data for 1966 also include adjust- 36 Excess of receipts or payments (-) Cash receipts from the public Cash payments to the public Excess of receipts or payments (-) Se£isonally adjus ted 28.8 29.7 132.6 30.6 30.7 33.7 *39. 6 36. 3 29.8 30. 2 32.4 32. 1 33.1 36.9 36.0 40.0 -1.0 4 .3 -1.5 — 2.4 -3.2 3.7 -3.7 ments for initiation of graduated withholding of personal income taxes and change in schedule for depositing withheld and OASI taxes. Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget. FEDERAL BUDGET, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the third quarter, Federal receipts rose $4% billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) and expenditures increased $8 billion, yielding a small surplus. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 140 100 J I L_\I80 +20 SEASC NALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SURPLUS 1 i «, • ••- -I-- I I " mm m m _ - .DEFICIT 1 1 1960 I I 1 1961 1 1 I \ 1 ! \ 1 1963 1962 I \ 1964 \ ! 1965 i i i ! -20 1966 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal Cjovernmeiit receipt j3 Period Fiscal year: 1962 1963 1964 1965 J 1966 Calendar year: 1962 1963 1964 1965 1964: IV. 1965: I - _ II III. IV. 1966: I._ II _ III. Indirect Personal Corporate business tax and Total profits tax and tax nontaxreceipts accruals accruals Fed era 1 Governrjnent expeiciditures GrantsSubsidies Surplus ContriPurin-aid less or butions chases Trans- to State Net current deficit for Total of goods fer payand interest surplus " social inand ments local paid of Govt. services s u ran ce entergovernments prises 104. 2 110. 2 115. 5 120. 6 131. 9 47. 3 49. 6 50. 7 51. 3 56. 6 22. 9 23! 5 25. 6 27. 8 30. S 14. 2 15. 0 15. 6 16. 9 16. 1 19. 9 22. 1 23. 6 24. 6 28. 4 106. 4 111. 4 116. 9 118. 3 131. 0 60.9 63. 4 65. 7 64. 3 70. 8 27.2 28.5 29. 6 30. 4 34. 4 7.6 8.4 9. 8 10. 9 12.6 6.84 7.5^ 8.1 106. 4 114. 5 115. 1 124. 9 117. 2 124. 0 125. 0 123. 8 126. 9 136. 0 141. 0 145. 3 48. 6 51. 5 48.6 54. 2 49.6 53.4 54.9 53.8 54. 7 57. 1 60. 7 63.9 22.7 24. 6 26. 5 29. 1 26. 7 28.7 28.7 28.9 30. 3 31. 9 31. 9 31. 6 14.6 15. 3 16. 2 16.8 16. 5 17.5 16. 8 16. 3 16. 7 15.2 16. 1 16. 2 20. 5 23. 1 23.9 24. 8 24. 4 24. 5 24. 6 24. 7 25. 2 31.7 32.2 33. 6 110. 3 113.9 118. 1 123.4 117.7 119.6 120. 6 126. 3 127. 0 133.7 137. 1 145. 1 63. 4 64. 2 65.2 66. 8 64. 1 64. 4 65. 6 67. 5 69. 8 71. 9 74.0 78. 3 27. 7 29. 1 29.9 32.4 29.8 31. 3 30. 9 34. 8 32. 8 35.4 34.8 36. 9 9. 1 10. 4 11. 2 11. 0 11. 0 11. 1 11. 1 11.6 13. 0 14.6 15. 3 8.0 7.2 Ij rj * Preliminary, based on seasonally adjusted data; not strictly comparable with previous data. 8.5 9. 1 S. 3 8. 7 8.4 8.6 8.7 8.8 8. 8 9. 3 9. 5 9.7 3." 9 4. 1 4. 1 -2. 1 — 1. 2 -1. 4 2.3 .9 4.0 3. 6 4.2 4. 2 4. 4 4.3 4.2 4. 1 4. 1 4. 1 4. 2 4.8 -3.8 .7 -3. 0 1. 6 - -.5 4.5 4. 4 -2. 5 —.2 2. 3 3.8 2 NOTE.—Data for Alaska and Hawaii included beginning 1960. Source: Department of Commerce. 37 UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE POSTAGE AND FEES PAID U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS WASHINGTON, D.C. 2O4O2 OFFICIAL BUSINESS First-Class Mail Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING The Nation's Income, Expenditure, and Saving Gross National Product or Expenditure National Income Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment page 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Measures of Unemployment and Part-Time Employment Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Weekly Hours of Work—Selected Industries Average Hourly and Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries 10 11 12 13 14 15 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production Production of Selected Manufactures Weekly Indicators of Production New Construction New Housing Starts and Applications for Financing Business Sales and Inventories—Total and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and New Orders Merchandise Exports and Imports . U.S. Exports and Imports of Goods and Services U.S. Balance of International Payments 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 PRICES Consumer Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers _ 26 27 28 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Supply Selected Liquid Assets Held by the Public Bank Loans, Investments, Debits, and Reserves Consumer and Real Estate Credit Bond Yields and Interest Rates Common Stock Prices, Yield, and Earnings 29 30 31 32 33 34 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Administrative Budget Receipts and Expenditures Federal Cash Receipts from and Payments to the Public Federal Budget, National Income Accounts Basis NOTE.—Detail in these tables will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Data for Alaska and Hawaii are not included unless specifically noted. Unless otherwise stated, all dollar figures are in current prices. P Indicates preliminary and . . . . not available. 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