Full text of Economic Indicators : December 1953
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5d Congress, 1st Session
Economic Indicators
DECEMBER 1953
Prepared for the joint Committee on the Economic Report
by the Council of Economic Advisers
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1953
JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Publk Law 304, 79th Cong.)
JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan, -Chairman
RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont, Vice Chairman
RICHARD M. SIMPSON (Pennsylvania)
HENRY O. TALLE (Iowa)
GEORGE H. BENDER (Ohio)
EDWARD J. HART (New Jersey)
WRIGHT PATMAN (Texas)
RICHARD ROLLING (Missouri)
ARTHUR V. WATKINS (Utah)
BARRY GOLDWATER (Arizona)
FRANK CARLSON, (Kansas)
JOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama)
PAUL H. DOUGLAS (Illinois)
J. WILLIAM FULBRIGHT (Arkansas)
GROVER W. ENSLEY, StaJJ Director
JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
ARTHUR F. BURNS, Chairman
NEIL H. JACOBY
WALTER W. STEWART
[PUBLIC L.AW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
;
JOINT RESOLUTION [S. J. Res. 55]
~,
'~ ,\
^To print the mpnthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
*"
•&
Resolved by the Senate and House; of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled* That the Joint
Committee on the Economic Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators,"
and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the
Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two
copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint
Committee on the Economic Report; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for
distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed
for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
Charts drawn by Graphics Unit, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce
Contents
THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY
The Nation's Economic Accounts
Gross National Product
Page
1
2
,
PRICES
Consumer Prices
Wholesale Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
Stock Prices
3
4
5
6
Civilian Labor Force
Nonagricultural Employment—Selected Industries
Average Weekly Hours—Selected Industries
Average Hourly Earnings—Selected Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries
7
8
9
10
11
ACTIVITY
Industrial Production
Weekly Production—Selected Indicators
Production of Selected Manufactures
Gro^s Private Domestic Investment
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
New Construction
New Housing Starts
Inventories and Sales
Merchandise Exports and Imports
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
PURCHASING
National Income
Corporate Profits
Personal Income
Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving
Per Capita Disposable Income
Farm Income
CREDIT,
FINANCE
Bank Loans and Investments
Consumer Credit
«....,,.*.
Bond Yields and Interest Rates
Money Supply
Federal Budget Receipts and Expenditures
Federal Cash Receipts From and Paymeats to the Public.
21
22
23
24
25
26
,
27
28
29
30
31
32
THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS
Economic activity as measured by over-all expenditures and incomes continued at a high level in the third quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
ANNUAL TOTALS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
CONSUMERS
300
250
200
DISPOSABLE INCOME
150
100
50
i
I
I
I
I
I
t
I
I
I
I
J
I
I
I
I
J
I
I
t
BUSINESS
100
INVESTMENT"
50
EXCESS OF GROSS
RETAINED EARNINGS
CROSS RETAINED
EARNINGS I/
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
GOVERNMENT- FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL
100
EXPENDITURES FOR GOODS
AND SERVICES
50
EXCESS OF RECEIPTS
RECEIPTS
{LESS TRANSFER PAYMENTS)
1941
43
45
47
49
51
53
1951
1952
1953
1954
I/ INCLUDES NET FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN ADDITION TO GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT.
t/ INCLUDES UNDISTRIBUTED CORPORATE PROFITS AND CORPORATE INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT, AND CAPITAL CONSUMPTION ALLOWANCES.
3/ PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES.
NOTE: THE SUM OF THE THREE INCOME AND RECEIPT ITEMS SHOWN IN THIS CHART IS NOT EQUAL TO THE SUM OF THE EXPENDITURES, OR GROSS NATIONAL PHOOUCT,
BECAUSE OF STATISTICAL DISCREPANCIES. FOR EXPLANATION AND USE OF THIS ARRANGEMENT, SEE SENATE REPORT NO. 1295, JOINT ECONOMIC REPORT,
PP. 92-93, 99-105, AND THE ANNUAL ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JANUARY 1953, APPENDIX A.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.
COUNCIt Of fCONOMJC AP
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Total output of goods and services declined nearly 1 percent in the third quarter, according to current estimates. A
lower rate of business inventory accumulation accounted for most of the decline. Total government and consumer
expenditures were fully maintained at their second quarter levels.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
400
"
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
ANNUAL TOTALS
400
GROSS NATIONAL
PRODUCT
350
350
300
300
250
250
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION
> EXPENDITURES
EXPENDITURES
200
200
150
150
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF
GOODS AND _
* SERVICES
100
100
50
50
J
-50
1941
1945
1947
1949
1951
1953
J_
-50
1953
1952
1951
1954
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE•• DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
[Billions of dollars]
Government purchases of goods and services
Personal Gross
Federal
Total
conNet
private foreign
gross
sump- domestic
State
Less
national
tion
investNational1 Other Governand
Total
investTotal
product expend- ment
ment
local
ment
security
itures
sales
7.9
5.2
3.9
0.9
1.3
67.5
9.9
13. 1
91. 3
89. 0
1.2
7.5
88.6
1.6
213.7
-2. 1
111.6
96.5
7.7
20.9
21.2
2.5
2.7
10. 0
4.6
30. 9
211. 1
146.9
28.7
12. 8
15. 8
13.3
3.8
8.9
28. 6
30.2
1.3
233.3
165. 6
.6
15. 6
16. 1
5. 6
259. 0
21.0
36. 6
177.9
1.9
42.7
18.2
.4
25.4
6.6
258.2
19.3
180.6
.5
33.5
43. 6
22. 1
3.9
.2
19.9
286.8
18.5
42. 0
-2.3
194.6
52.5
21. 8
41.1
37.4
.4
4. 1
329.8
.3
62.9
208. 1
58. 6
23.4
54.2
48.9
-.2
5.8
.5
348.0
218. 1
77.5
52.5
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
Period
1939
1944
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1952: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1953: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter. _
.
340.4
345. 1
345.3
361. 1
213.7
217.2
217.2
224.4
50.4
49.6
52.3
57.9
2.1
.5
- 2. 0
-1.6
74. 1
77.7
77.8
80.4
51.0
54.7
54.6
56.4
46.2
49.8
49.2
50.5
5.4
5.4
6.0
6.3
.5
.5
.6
.5
23. 1
23. 0
23.2
24. 0
362.0
372. 4
369. 0
227.7
230. 4
231. 0
54.0
61. 0
56. 5
2 1
-2.5
-2. 1
82.4
83.5
83. 6
57.4
58. 9
58.4
51.6
53. 5
52. 1
6.5
6.0
6. 8
.7
.7
.5
24.9
24.6
25.2
i Includes expenditures for military services, international security and foreign relations (except foreign loans^, development and control of atomic energy, promotion of the merchant marine,,promotion of defense production and economic stabilization, and civil defense. For further details, see Annual Economic Report of the
President, January 1953 (p. 165), and Survey of Current Business, July 1953 (p. 10).
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce,
PRICES
CONSUMER PRICES
The consumer price index rose 0.2 percent between mid-September and mid-October. A decline of 0.2 percent In
food prices was more than offset by higher prices for other major groups of consumer goods and services.
INDEX, 1947-49 = 100
140
INDEX, I 947-49 MOO
140
1948
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
11947-49=100]3
All
items
Period
1939
1942
1945
1946
1948
1949
1950
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
June
1951 monthly average
1952 monthly average
1952; September
October November
December 1953: January
FebruaryMarch—..
April
May --»
June
July
August
September
October
- -- --
«
59.4
69.7
76.9
83.4
102.8
101.8
102.8
101.8
111.0
113.5
114. 1
114.2
114. 3
114. 1
113.9
113. 4
113.6
113.7
114.0
114.5
114.7
115.0
115. 2
115.4
Housing
Food
Apparel
Total
47. 1
61.3
68.9
79.0
104. 1
100. 0
101.2
100. 5
112.6
114.6
115. 4
115.0
115. 0
113.8
113. 1
111.5
111.7
111.5
112. 1
113.7
113. 8
114. 1
113. 8
113. 6
1
C)
(')
(•)
0)
101. 7
103.3
106. 1
104.9
112.4
114. 6
114.8
115. 2
115. 7
116.4
116.4
116.6
116.8
117. 0
117.1
117.4
117.8
118.0
118.4
118.7
Rent
86. 6
90.4
90.9
91.4
100. 7
105.0
108.8
108.7
113. 1
117.9
118.3
118.8
119.5
120.7
121. 1
121.5
121.7
122. 1
123.0
123. 3
123.8
125. 1
126.0
126.8
52.5
64.9
76.3
83. 7
103.5
99.4
98. 1
96.5
106.9
105. 8
105.8
105.6
105.2
105. 1
104. 6
104.6
104. 7
104.6
104.7
104.6
104.4
104.3
105. 3
105.5
Transportation
(>)
«
«
(«)
100. 9
108.5
111.3
109.9
118.4
126.2
127.7
128.4
128.9
128.9
129.3
129. 1
129.3
129.4
129.4
129.4
129.7
130.6
130. 7
130.7
Reading
and
Medical Personal
care
recreacare
«
(«)
(»)
(»)
100.9
104. 1
106.0
105.4
111. 1
117.2
118.8
118. 9
118. 9
119.3
119.4
119.3
119.5
120.2
120.7
121. 1
121. 5
121.8
122.6
122.8
w«
((>)J)
101.3
101. 1
101. 1
99. 2
110.5
111.8
112. 1
112.3
112. 4
112.5
112.4
112.5
112.4
112.5
112.8
112.6
112.6
112.7
112.9
113.2
tion
(*)
(')
(•)
(«)
100.4
104.1
103.4
102.5
106.5
107.0
107.3
107.6
107.4
108.0
107.8
107.5
107.7
107.9
108.0
107.8
107.4
107.6
107.8
108.6
Utber
goods
and
services
«
(')
(>)
(•)100.5
103.4
105.2
103.7
109.7
115.4
115.9
115.8
115.8
115.9
115.6
115.8
117.5
117.9
118.0
118.2
118.3
118.4
118.5
119.7
i The new base 1947-49=100 is in compliance with
2 1recommendations of the U.S. Bureau of the Budget. Beginning with January 1953 the index structure has been
changed.
Is, ot available.
Source: Department of Labor.
"~n
WHOLESALE PRICES
Average wholesale prices, which had been drifting downward for 2 months, rose during the last of November and
early December. The rise reflected mainly an increase in farm prices. Food prices regained by the end of November
a large part of the drop of ihe earlier weeks of the month. Industrial prices continued stable.
INDEX, 1947-49*100
INDEX, 1947-49 = 100
120
1953
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1947-49=100]
Period
1942 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average
1950 monthly average.._
June
1951 monthly average
1952 monthly average
1952: September _ _
October
November
December
1953: January
February
March
April
May
June
July
.
August
September
October
Week ended: 1
1953: November 3.
10_
17_
24_
December 1_
1
64.2
78.7
104.4
99.2
103. 1
100.2
114.8
111. 6
111.8
111. 1
110.7
109.6
109. 9
109.6
110.0
109.4
109. 8
109.5
110.9
110.6
111.0
110.2
92.8
97.5
94.5
113.4
107.0
106.6
104.9
103. 6
99.2
99.6
97.9
99.8
97.3
97.8
95.4
97.9
96.4
98. 1
95.2
107.7
104.3
105.5
105.2
104. 1
103.2
104. 3
103.3
105. 5
104. 8
106.6
104.7
Other than
farm products
and foods
(industrial)
68.3
78.3
103.4
101.3
105.0
102.2
115.9
113.2
113.2
113.0
112.8
112.9
113. 1
113. 1
113.4
113.2
113.6
113.9
114.8
114.9
114.7
114.5
109.9
109. 9
109.8
110.0
110.2
93.5
93.7
93.2
95.0
95.1
104.8
104. 1
103.9
103.8
104.3
114.5
114.5
114. 6
114.6
114.6
All commodities
Data for week nearest middle of month plotted^as estimate for month.
Farm
products
59.2
83.2
107.3
Processed
foods
59. 1
77.6
106. 1
95.7
99.8
96.8
111.4
108.8
110.3
108.5
Source: Department of Labor.
PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received by farmers dropped between October 1 5 and November 1 5. Lower prices for hogs, eggs, and cotton
were only partially offset by higher prices for milk, wheat, and some commercial vegetables. Prices paid by farmers
for production items increased. The parity ratio, continuing to decline, was 8 percent lower 'hem in November 1952.
INDEX, 1910-14 « 100
350
INDEX, 1910-14 «IOO
350
300
300
250
250
PARITY INDEX
(PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES,
AND WAGE R A T E S )
200
200
150
150
PARITY RATIO
50
50
• M A M J J A S O N O
1948
If
1949
1950
1952
1951
1953
RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO PARITY I N D E X ,
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.
[1910-14=100]
Prices pai<i for items
use d in
Period
Living
1939 monthly average
1 942 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1948 monthly average.
1949 monthly average
1950 monthlv averageJune 151951 monthly average
1952 monthly average.
1952: October 15
November 15
December 15
1953: January 15
February 15 .
March 15
April 15
May 15 _
__
June 15
July 15
August 15
September 15
October 15
November 15_
_
_
~ .
.
.
120
149
175
202
251
243
246
243
268
271
269
269
269
268
266
269
269
270
271
271
273
270
270
270
Parity index
(prices paid,
Prices
received
by farmers
Production and wage rates)
121
148
173
191
250
238
246
247
273
274
269
266
264
265
261
261
257
257
248
250
249
247
246
248
123
152
182
208
260
251
256
255
282
287
284
282
281
284
281
282
280
280
277
279
279
277
276
277
Parity ratio l
95
158
2 196
2234
285
249
256
247
302
288
282
277
269
267
263
264
259
261
259
259
258
256
250
249
1 Ratio of index of prices received by farmers to parity index.
2 Includes wartime subsidy payments paid on beef cattle, sheep, lambs, milk, and butterfat between October 1943 and June 1946.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
40349—53-
2
77
104
108
112
110
99
100
97
107
100
99
98
96
94
94
94
92
93
94
93
92
92
91
90
STOCK PRICES
Stock prices dropped during the middle weeks of November and then resumed the upward movement be$un in
September.
INDEX, 1939*100
300
INDEX, 1939s 100
300
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION,
Composite
index *
Period
Weekly average:
1940
1946
._
1949
.. _
1950
_-- . .
June
1951
1952
1952: November.,
December
1953: January
.
February
.
March
April
May
,
June
.
July
August
„._
September
October
November
Week ended:
J953; November 6
13
20
27
December 4 2.
[1939=100]
Manufacturing
Total
Durable
goods
Nondurable
goods
Transportation
Utilities
Trade,
finance,
and
service
Mining
94.2
149.4
127.7
154. 1
156.1
184.9
195.0
196. 8
203.4
204. 7
201.9
203.9
193.7
194. 1
187.3
190.4
190.2
181.0
187.1
191.2
93.4
146.6
132. 1
165.7
168.7
206.8
220. 2
222. 6
230. 8
232.4
228.6
232.2
220. 2
220. 9
212.7
216.7
216. 6
205.0
213.5
218.7
92. 5
138.6
116.0
150.2
153.7
178.5
188.8
196. 3
204. 6
207.7
203.6
206. 8
193.8
195.9
186.8
188.0
185.9
175.2
184.4
190.4
94.2
154. 5
147.2
180.2
182.6
233. 1
249.3
247.0
254.9
255.3
251.7
255.6
244.5
243.8
236.4
242. 9
244. 7
232.2
240, 2
244. 8
99.2
202.4
136.0
160.0
147.3
199.0
220.6
225. 1
237.7
239.2
234.8
238. 1
223.2
225.7
219. 2
223.2
217.2
198.9
202.4
203.8
99.9
121.0
98. 1
108.9
113.3
112.6
117.9
121.2
123.2
124. 1
124.3
124.3
120.4
120.0
116.6
118.9
120.7
118.8
121.4
123. 2
90.4
204.3
160.7
183.8
180.4
207.7
205.8
205.2
212.2
211.9
210.4
212.4
207.0
208. 8
203.8
205.5
205.8
197.5
200. 8
206.5
75.6
125.5
129.4
143.5
140.5
204.9
275.7
259.9
266.8
261.2
255.8
262.7
252.0
247.0
237.4
236.8
236.3
219.2
218. 8
231.4
191. 4
190.8
190.2
192.5
194.8
219.5
218.2
217.0
220. 2
223.0
190.7
189. 9
188.8
192. 1
194.3
245.9
244.2
242. 9
246. 0
249.3
206.0
203.2
201.9
204. 1
205.4
122. 3
123. 0
123.4
124.3
125.2
204.9
206. 1
207.6
207.5
212.0
227.3
234.3
230.9
233.3
234.5
» Includes 20,5 common stocks, distributed as follows: 14 for mining, 98 for durable goods manufacturing, 72 for nondurable goods manufacturing, 21 for
transportation,
2H for utilities, and .H2 for trade, finance, and service. Indexes are for weekly closing prices.
2
Data became available after chart was prepared.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.
EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE
Total employment of 61.9 million in November was just below the level of October of this year and of November a
year ago. Agricultural employment declined seasonally/ nonagricultural employment was little changed from earlier
months. Although unemployment rose over the month to 1.4 million, or 2.3 percent of the civilian labor force, it
was about the same as in November of last year and as low as in any November since World War II.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS
70
"MILLIONS OF PERSONS
'" - NONA6RICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
-•
PERCENT
20
I
JNI IMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE
m
1939
_m
1944
1947
%:$:;;:
wm
psq
1950
1951
1952
1953
"* 14 YEARS OF A6E AND OVER.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Period
1939 monthly average
1944 monthly average --1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average
June
1951 monthly average
1952 monthly average
1952: October
November
December
1953: January.
February
March • .
.
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
..
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISfRS
Total labor
force (including
armed
forces)
55, 600
65, 890
61, 608
62, 748
63, 571
64, 599
66, 177
65, 832
66, 426
66, 566
67, 047
66, 508
65, 959
66,255
66, 679
66, 338
66, 497
(2)
(22)
()
(2)
(2)
(2)
Civilian labor force
UnemEmployment l
ployTotal
A ricul
NonagriTotal
1
S
lotal
ment
cultural
1 tural
Thousands of persons, 14 years of age and over
9,480
36, 140
9,610
45, 750
55, 230
670
45, 010
8,950
53, 960
54, 630
2,142
49, 761
8,266
58, 027
60, 168
2,064
51, 405
7,973
59, 378
61, 442
3,395
50, 684
8,026
58, 710
62, 105
3,142
52, 450
7,507
59, 957
63, 099
3,384
52, 436
9,046
61, 482
64, 866
1,879
53, 951
7,054
61, 005
62, 884
1,673
54, 488
6,805
61, 293
62, 966
1,284
54, 588
7,274
61, 862
63, 146
1,418
55, 454
6,774
62, 228
63, 646
1,412
55, 812
5,697
62, 921
61, 509
1, 892
55, 072
5,452
60, 524
62, 416
1,788
55, 558
60, 924
5,366
62, 712
1, 674
55, 740
61, 460
5,720
63, 134
1, 582
55, 158
6,070
62, 810
61, 228
1,306
55, 268
6, 390
61, 658
62, 964
1, 562
55, 246
7,926
63, 172
64, 734
1,548
55, 492
7,628
63, 120
64, 668
1,240
56, 134
7,274
63, 408
64, 648
1,246
55, 044
7,262
62, 306
63, 552
1,162
55, 083
7,159
62, 242
63, 404
1,428
55, 274
6,651
61, 925
63, 353
Unemployment as percent of total
civilian
labor force
17.2
1.2
3.6
3.4
5.5
5.0
5.2
3.0
2.7
2.0
2.2
2.2
3. 0
2.9
2.7
2.5
2. 1
2.4
2.4
1.9
2.0
1.8
2.3
i Includes part-time workers and those who had jobs but were not at work for such reasons as vacation, illness, bad weather, temporary lay-off,
and industrial disputes.
A . ~.
Source:
* Not available.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Rn«r«o- Department
rn>™rtmimt of Commerce.
Oommereft.
7
*
NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
Manufacturing employment dropped somewhat more than seasonally in November, but it was above any postwar
November level except 1952. Trade, with a less than seasonal rise, was the only major industry group to report
higher employment in November than in the preceding month.
MILLIONS OF WAGE
AND SALARY WORKERS
MILLIONS OF WAGE
AND SALARY WORKERS
II.0 I
8.5
DURABLE MANUFACTURING
NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING
ETTn
i
J
F
M
A
»
.
i
i
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION
F
M
i
A
i
M
I
J
J
J
A
. D
I
S
WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE
1951-^
SHU
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Thousands of wage and salary workers *]
Manufacturing
Period
Total
1939 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average
1950 monthly average
June . „
._
1951 monthly average
1952 monthlv average
1952: November
December
1953: January
»
February
M arch
April
May
June
Julv
August
2
September
_ _ __
October 2 _ 2
November
10, 078
17, 381
15, 321
14, 178
14, 967
14, 733
16,082
16, 209
16, 874
16, 952
16, 884
17,013
17, 135
17, 077
17,040
17, 162
17,069
17, 258
17, 208
17, 008
16, 711
Durable Nondugoods rable goods
4,683
11,077
8,312
7,473
8,085
8,035
9,071
9,262
9,750
9,856
9, 880
9, 989
10, 103
10, 117
10, 096
10, 121
10, 007
10, 006
9,939
9,865
9, 694
5,394
6,304
7,010
6, 705
6, 882
6, 698
7,011
6,946
7, 124
7,096
7,004
7, 024
7,032
6, 960
6,944
7, 041
7,062
7,252
7,269
7, 143
7,017
Contract Wholesale Finance,
construc- and retail service,
etc.
trade
tion
1,150
1,567
2,169
2, 165
2,333
2,430
2,588
2,572
2,648
2,497
2, 303
2, 280
2,301
2,416
2, 509
2,608
2,662
2, 715
2,712
2,723
2, 611
6,612
7,189
9,519
9,513
9,645
9,534
10,013
10, 251
10, 650
11,218
10,283
10, 214
10, 284
10, 314
10, 348
10,415
10, 355
10, 334
10, 452
10, 603
10, 735
4,703
5,320
6,636
6,736
6,894
6,992
7,068
7,237
7,239
7,215
7,161
7, 171
7,218
7,321
7,382
7,443
7,488
7,485
7,442
7,373
7,342
Government
(Federal,
State,
local)
3,987
6,049
5,614
5,837
5,992
5,908
6,378
6,633
6,742
7,095
6,675
6,625
6, 666
6,653
6,669
6, 638
6,478
6,449
6,663
6, 749
6,719
Transportation
and
public
utilities
2, 912
3, 619
4,141
3, 949
3,977
3,984
4, 166
4,220
4,286
4,293
4,210
4,210
4, 235
4,244
4,279
4, 315
4,340
4,337
4, 324
4,310
4,276
Mining
845
917
982
918
889
929
913
872
871
870
866
856
846
835
831
835
823
831
828
812
812
1
Includes all full- and part-time waee and salary workers in nonasrieultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period
ending nearest the 15th pf the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this
table not comj arable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Dei artment of Commerce (p. 7) which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are
based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
2 Preliminary estimates.
Source: Department of Labor,
8
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
The decline of almost % hour in the average workweek of factory production workers in November to 39.9 hours
resulted mainly from Armistice Day shutdowns. However, this was the first November since 1949 in which the workweek was not well above 40 hours.
HOURS PER WEEK
HOURS PER WEEK
NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING
DURABLE MANUFACTURING
i i i I I I i i i i i
I I I i I I 1 I II
i i I i t I I i i I iI
1 I I I I 1 1 ! I 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 I 1 1 1
I 1 1 ! I
1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 ! 1 11 1 1I 1
T]
RETAIL TRADE
BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
npr/^\.vt^
_^_
111 1 1
1 1 11 11
0 I I I I I 1I I I I I I
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR,
,,,,i
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISEftS
[Hours per week, for production workers or nonsupervisory employees]
Manufacturing I
Period
Total
1939 monthly average
1 943 monthly average
1946 monthlv average
1 947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average
1950 monthly average
June
1951 monthlv average
1952 monthlv average
1952: October
November
December
1 953 : Jan uarv
February
March
April
May
June.
Julv
August
September 2
October 2 2
November _ _ _ _ _
_
_
_ _
.
_
_
_ _
_
37. 7
44 9
40 4
40 4
40 1
39. 2
40 5
40 5
40. 7
40 7
41 4
41 1
41 7
41 0
40 9
41 1
40 8
40 7
40 7
40 3
40 5
39 9
40 3
39 9
Nondurable
goods
Durable
goods
38
46
40
40
40
39
41
41
41
41
42
41
42
41
41
41
41
41
41
40
41
40
41
40
0
6
2
6
5
5
2
3
6
5
2
9
5
8
7
9
6
5
4
8
1
6
0
6
37
42
40
40
39
38
39
39
39
39
40
40
40
39
39
40
39
39
39
39
39
38
39
39
4
5
5
1
6
8
7
5
5
6
3
1
5
8
8
0
5
5
7
6
6
9
2
0
Building
construction
32. 6
38 4
38. 1
37. 6
137. 3
36. 7
36 3
37. 0
37. 2
38 1
38. 7
37. 1
38.2
36. 9
37. 1
36 8
36. 9
37. 3
37. 7
37. 1
37. 6
36. 3
37. 5
(3)
i Data beginning with January 1948 are not strictly comparable with those for earlier periods.
2 Preliminary estimates;
s Not available.
Source: Department of kabor.
Retail trade
(3)
42.7
40 3
40. 7
40.3
40.3
40. 4
40 5
40. 9
40. 2
39. 9
39.4
39.0
39.8
39.2
39.2
39. 2
39. 1
39. 0
39. 4
39. 9
39.8
39. 1
39. 0
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
Average hourly earnings in manufacturing industries in November were unchanged from the September-October rate
of $1.78 but were 7 cents higher than in November 1952.
DOLUiRS PER HOUR
DOLL ftRS PER HOUR
2.00
2.50
j
BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
DURABLE MANUFACTURING
f
^-^T^^"
/
^\/-
2.30
1.80
1952 PRICES
1.70
,...-/
1.60
/
1.50
/£.-•'
2.40
'j.90
X
-Ntf ^r^/
..-**
******
2.20
/
2.10
**
<
CURRENT PRICES
CURRENT PRICES
2.00
""*^
1.40
0
"YI i M 1 1 1 1 iiT i M 1 1 1 M M i
1
1950
1951
1.90
F
| ^ | | | i 1 M 1 lT 1 II
1952
1 1 1 1 1 | 1 I
0
1 1953
r?l 1 II
1 II
1950
I 1 lT. I 1 M 1 , 1 1 1 i f l 1 • II
I
NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING
1 I Ml
ifl 1 I 1 I 1 M ,
1
1952
,71
1953
RETAIL TRADE
.......
1.40
1.60
1952 PRICES
(. ^f&~ex=S
1.50
952PRICEsl/
... ,*r**^
-. ./'
f**m+r
CURRENT PRICI s
^_sS
i \ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 iTi i M 1 1 i i ii r
i960
V
^S~^
1
1.30
0
1
1.50
1.70
1.40
1951
i
195!
CURRENT PRICES
i
1.10
F
i 1 1 1 1 1 1 | 1 1 1T ! 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 I
1952
I
0
1953
r?l I l l l . M Mt, M M l l l M l f l l . . . 1 . 1 1 1 1 f . M , , l M , , T
1950
I
1951
I
1952 1
1953
^EARNINGS IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ON BASE Ii 52»IOO.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LSBCR.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISfRS
[For production workers or nonsupervisory employees]
All manufacturing
Period
1939 monthly average . _
1943 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1 947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average..
1950 monthly average
June
1951 monthly average..
1952 monthly average
1952: October
November..
..
December
1953: January
.
February
March.
April
May
'.
June__
July.
August
3
September
October 3 3
November
__ __
Current
1952
prices
prices *
$1.21
$0.63
1.47
.96
1.09
1.48
1.24
1.47
1. 35
1.49
1.40
1. 56
1.46
1.62
1.45
1. 62
1.59
1.63
1.67
1.67
1.70
1.69
1.71
1.70
1.72
1.73
1. 73
1.74
1.74
1.74
1.75
1.75
1.75
1.75
1.76
1.75
1.74
1. 76
1.77
1.75
1.77
1. 75
1.75
1.78
1.78
1.75
1. 78
(4)
Building
Durable goods Nondurable goods
Retail trade
construction
manufacturing
manufacturing
1952
Current
1952
Current
1952
Current
1952
Current
prices J
prices * prices
prices
prices l
prices prices 1 prices
$1.04
$0.54
$1.78
$0.93
$1.11
$0.70
$1.34
$0.58
1.04
.68
1.92
1.25
1.23
.80
1.06
1.62
1.21
.89
2.01
1.48
1.38
1.02
1.16
1.57
1.20
1.01
2.00
1.68
1.39
1.17
1.29
1.53
2
1.20
1.09
22.04
1.85
1.41
1.41
1.28
1.56
1.27
1.14
2.16
1. 94
1.48
1.32
1.64
1.47
1.30
1.18
2.24
1.52
2.03
1.38
1. 54
1.70
1.32
1.18
2.23
2.00
1.52
1.36
1. 52
1.69
1.29
1.26
2.24
2.19
1.51
1.67
1.71
1.48
1.32
1.32
2.31
2.31
1.54
1.54
1.76
1.76
1.34
1.35
2.37
2.38
1.53
1.54
1.80
1.81
1.34
1.35
2.37
2.39
1.55
1.56
1. 82
1.81
1.31
1.32
2.39
2.40
1.56
1. 82
1.57
1.83
1.35
1.36
2.40
2.41
1.57
1.84
1.58
1.83
1.37
1.37
2.42
2.42
1.58
1. 58
1.85
1.85
1.37
1.37
2.44
2.44
1.59
1.85
1.59
1.85
1.38
2.44
1.38
2.44
1.59
1.59
1.86
1.86
1.38
1.39
2.43
2.44
1.59
1.60
1.86
1.85
1.39
1.40
2.42
2.44
1. 59
1.60
1.87
1.85
1.39
1.41
2.44
2.47
1.59
1.61
1.88
1.86
1.39
1.41
2.46
2.49
1.59
1.61
1.88
1.86
1.40
1.42
2.46
2.50
1.61
1.63
1.89
1.86
1. 40
1.42
2.48
2.52
1. 59
1. 89
1.62
1.4 86
4
()
(4)
1. 63
1. 89
(4)
()
(4)
» Earnings in current prices divided by consumer price index on base 1952=100.
J
Data beginning with January 1948 are not strictly comparable with those for earlier periods.
10
w
2 Preliminary estimates.
4
Not available.
Source: Department of Labor.
AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
Average weekly earnings in manufacturing industries decreased slightly in November to $71.02, reflecting a shorter
workweek Over the year, the gain has been 74 cents, with increased wage rates more than compensating for the
reduction in the workweek.
DOLLARS PER WEEK
DOLLARS PER WEEK
DURABLE MANUFACTURING
BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
^CURRENT PRICES
55
t t I t I I I I I I I I I t I I t I I I I 1I I
0
Q1! 11 ] ! I I I \ \ A
NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING
CURRENT PRICES
50
I ( I t I II
0
t i l M I t I
..n
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
[For production workers or nonsupervisory employees]
All manufacturing
Period
1939 monthly average
1943 monthly average1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average
1950 monthly average- June „1951 monthly average
1952 monthly average1952: October
November
December.. . . . .
1953: January
February
March
.
April
Mav
June
July
~ August _ 3
. _September
3
October 3
November
Durable goods
manufacturing
Building
construction
1952
Current
prices prices l
Current
prices
1952
prices l
Current
prices
1952
prices 1
Current 1952 l
prices prices
$23. 86
43. 14
43.82
49.97
54. 14
54. 92
59.33
58.85
64.71
67.97
70. 38
70.28
72. 14
71.34
71. 17
71.93
71.40
71. 63
71.63
71.33
71. 69
71. 02
71.73
71.02
$45. 62
66. 17
59.62
59.42
59.76
61.23
65. 49
65. 61
66. 17
67.97
69.96
69. 79
71.78
71.06
71.24
71.86
71.26
71.34
70.99
70.55
70. 77
69.97
70.4 53
()
$26. 50
49.30
46.49
52.46
57. 11
58.03
63.32
62.86
69.47
73.04
76.38
76.26
77.78
76.91
77. 15
77.52
77.38
77. 19
77.42
76.70
77.27
76.73
77. 49
76.73
$50. 67
75.61
63.25
62.38
63.04
64. 69
69.89
70.08
71.03
73.04
75.92
75. 73
77.39
76.60
77.23
77.44
77.23
76.88
76.73
75.87
76.28
75.60
76. 19
$21. 78
34. 12
41. 14
46. 96
50.61
51.41
54.71
53.92
58.46
60.98
62.06
62.56
63.59
62.88
62.88
63.60
62. 81
63.20
63.52
63.76
63.76
63.41
63.50
63.57
(4)
1 Earnings in current prices divided by consumer price index on base 1952=100.
2 Data beginning with January 1948 are not strictly with those for earlier periods.
»Preliminary estimates.
Nondurable goods
manufacturing
$41. 64
52.33
55.97
55.84
55. 86
57.31
60.39
60.11
59.78
60.98
61.69
62. 13
63.27
62.63
62.94
63.54
62.68
62.95
62. 95
63.07
62.94
62.47
62.4 44
()
$30. 39
48. 13
56.24
63. 30
2
68. 85
70.95
73.73
73.82
81.47
88.01
92. 11
88.67
91.68
88.93
89.78
89.79
90.04
91.08
92.63
91.64
93. 62
90.75
94.50
(4)
.
$58. 11
73.82
76.52
75.27
2
75. 99
79.10
81.38
82.30
83.30
88.01
91.56
88.05
91.22
88.58
89.87
89. 70
89.86
90.72
91.80
90. 64
92. 42
89. 41
92.92
(4)
< Not available.
Source: Department of Labor.
Retail tradeCurrent 1952
prices prices *
$23. 14
27.36
36.35
40.66
43.85
45.93
47.63
48.06
50.65
52.67
53. 19
52.65
52. 54
53.45
53.70
53. 70
53.96
54.21
55. 16
56.26
56. 12
55. 52
55.38
(4)
$44. 24
41.96
49.46
48.35
48.40
51.20
52.57
53.58
51.79
52.67
52.87
52.28
52.28
53.24
53.75
53.65
53.85
53.99
54.67
55. 65
55.40
54.70
54.45
(4)
11
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
The index of industrial production declined again in November, according to preliminary estimates. Model changeovers in the automobile industry and reduced activity in the steel mills were primarily responsible for the drop in the
durable goods sector. .Minerals production also was lower, while production of nondurable goods continued at the
October level.
INDEX, 1935-39 = IOO
I N D E X , 1935-39 = 100
400
400
DURABLE MANUFACTURES
1941 42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J ' A S O N*D
PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
11935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Period
1943 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average _
. .
1950 monthly average
..
June
-.
1951 monthly average
1952 monthly average
1952: October
November ...
December.1953: January
February .
». .
March
April
Mav
June
Julv
August
September
October l 1 . . .
November
12
i Preliminary estimates.
Total
industrial
production
239
170
187
192
176
200
199
220
219
230
234
235
236
240
243
241
240
240
232
236
232
231
228
*Manufacture s
Total
258
177
194
198
183
209
208
229
230
242
245
247
249
254
258
255
254
253
245
248
243
243
241
Durable
goods
360
192
220
225
202
237
237
273
280
300
304
313
316
322
328
325
321
320
310
309
301
304
299
Nondurable goods
176
165
172
177
168
187
184
194
189
195
197
194
195
199
201
198
199
199
191
198
196
194
194
Minerals
132
134
149
155
135
148
151
164
160
164
171
168
164
163
162
164
164
168
164
167
169
161
159
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Beserve System.
WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORS
mills operated at about 90 percent of capacity in November, and dropped below this figure in early December.
Model changeovers accounted for the sharp drop in the number of automobiles being assembled. There was a further
decline in coal mining but a small rise in electric power distribution.
MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS (DAILY AVERAGE)
3
MILLIONS OF TONS
3
SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR, EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, AND WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS.
St eel
Period
Weekly average:
1950
June . „ ,
1951
1952
1952: October
November.
December
Thousands of
net tons
,
- -
1953: January
February
March
April
..
May. - .
June
Julv..
August
September
October
November 3 _ _
Week ended:
1953: November 7 _ _
14
21
283
December 5 3
12
..
.
Percent of
theoretical
capacity *
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Electric power, Bituminous
by utilities
coali
(thousands of
(millions of
kilowatt-hours) short tons) 2
Oars and
trucks
(number)
1, 857
1,898
2,018
1, 782
2,214
2,200
2, 193
96. 9
99. 6
100. 9
85. 8
106. 6
105.9
105.6
6, 183
6, 038
6,958
7, 451
7, 707
7, 841
7,970
1, 687
1,777
1,772
1, 542
1, 213
1,762
1,643
154, 212
192, 825
129, 828
106, 765
135, 447
126,618
113, 122
2, 234
2,233
2,295
2,225
2,257
2, 192
2,099
2, 123
2,076
2, 135
2,044
99. 1
99. 1
101. 8
98.7
100. 1
97.2
93. 1
94.2
92. 1
94.7
90. 7
8, 156
8, 136
8, 116
8,018
7,956
8,279
8,238
8,488
8, 352
8, 331
8,352
1, 510
1, 413
1,387
1,463
1,466
1, 623
1,536
1, 549
1, 644
1, 506
1,497
137, 890
146, 188
158, 658
166, 322
149, 709
150, 252
154, 274
147, 542
128, 375
140, 317
103, 576
2,096
2,081
2,044
1, 956
1, 972
1,934
93.0
92. 3
90. 7
86.8
87. 5
85.8
8,398
8, 457
8,416
8, 138
1 470
1, 546
1, 493
1,480
129
111
104
69
118
269
578
231
224
585
i Percent of capacity based on weekly net ton capacity of 1,906,268 for the first half of 1950,1,928,721
beginning July 1, 1950,1,999,034 beginning Jimuary 1,1951,
2
2,077,040 beginning January 1,1952, and 2,254,459 beginning January 1,1953.
Daily average for week.
» Preliminary estimates.
Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Automotive Reports.
40349—53
13
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURES
In October most durable goods industries equaled or exceeded the September output.
sector, there were further curtailments in textile, fuel, and chemical industries.
X, 1935-39MOO, ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION
In the nondurable goods
INDEX, 1935-39« 100, ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION
300
1941 43 45 47 49 51 53
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: BOAR
[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Nondurable manufactures
Durable manufactures
Period
1943 monthly average
1946 monthly average...1947 monthly average.......
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average .
.
.
.
.
.
.
1950 monthly average.
....
June
1951 monthly average
1952 monthly average
. ..
1952; September
October
November.
December
1953: January
February
.
March
April...
May
t
June
July
August.
September
October l
• Preliminary eatimates.
14
I
Iron and
steel
208
150
195
208
188
229
231
259
243
270
281
283
286
287
290
297
292
291
288
278
277
264
264
Lumber
and
products
129
131
143
145
130
160
155
157
154
155
155
161
165
171
175
172
168
151
154
149
153
155
158
Nonferrous Textiles
and
Machinery metals and
products products
443
240
276
277
234
270
262
336
356
354
363
371
385
393
398
406
402
400
398
385
387
385
386
267
157
187
193
160
206
207
207
222
225
237
240
246
249
259
259
263
262
259
247
237
231
232
153
162
163
170
147
182
173
174
161
177
172
176
169
169
173
173
169
173
174
157
166
160
157
Petroleum Manufacand coal tured food
products products
185
173
193
218
209
229
222
267
270
282
279
290
291
293
293
289
286
288
295
294
297
295
290
145
149
157
159
163
164
164
165
164
168
165
161
164
165
165
168
165
164
164
162
162
164
163
Chemical
products
384
236
251
254
241
264
261
299
302
302
304
308
309
310
310
314
319
321
325
327
326
321
316
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System.
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
Gross private domestic investment decreased $4M billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate), according to current
estimates. A lower inventory accumulation rate accounted for most of the drop. Residential construction was slightly
lower, while both nonresidential construction and investment in producers' durable equipment were maintained at the
high levels of the second quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
70
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
I
70
ANNUAL TOTALS
60
50
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
-10
1941
1943
1945
1947
1949
1951
1953
1954
1951
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVI51RS
[Billions of dollars]
Period
1939
1944
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
....
Total gross
private
domestic
investment
9.9
7.7
28.7
30.2
42.7
33. 5
52.5
58. 6
52.5
New construction
Residential
nonfarm
Total
4.9
2.8
10.3
13.9
17.7
17.2
22. 7
23. 1
23.4
2.7
.8
4. 0
6.3
8.6
8.3
12.6
11.0
11. 1
Other
Producers'
durable
equipment
2.2
2.0
6.3
7.6
9. 1
9. 0
10. 1
12.2
12. 3
Change in
business
Inventories
4.6
5. 7
12. 8
17. 1
19. 9
18. 7
22.8
24. 6
25. 4
0.4
-.8
6. 1
-.8
5.0
-2.5
7.5
10. 9
3.7
Seasonally adjusted annual raton
1952: First quarter . . .
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
50.4
49.6
52.3
57.9
23.3
23.4
23. 1
23.9
11.0
11.0
10. 8
11.6
12,4
12. 4
12, 8
12. 3
25. 6
25.6
24.9
25.5
1.5
.7
4. 2
8. 5
1953: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
54.0
61. 0
56.5
25.0
25.3
24.9
12. 2
12.0
11. ft
12, 8
18. 4
13.4
26.2
26.9
27.1
2.9
8.8
4.5
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
15
EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
Despite a slight drop in new plant and equipment expenditures in the (ourth quarter, as indicated in a recent
survey, outlays for the full year 1953 are expected to reach a record $27,8 billion. Expenditures (or the first quarter
of 1954 are expected to run above the first quarter of 1953 but to be slightly below the level of recent month*..
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
35
BILUONS Of
DOLLARS
— m— 10-
1939
1948
1950
1951
1952
1
1952
1951
1953
** SEE NOTE 4 ON TABLE BELOW.
SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Transportation
Mining
Durable NonduraRailroads Other
goods ble goods
Public
utilities
Commercial and
other a
0.36
.57
1.28
.89
1.21
1.49
1.36
1.36
0.52
.50
2.54
3. 12
3.31
3.66
3.84
4.48
2.08
2.70
5.98
6.78
7.24
6.99
7.34
1.27
1.38
1.27
1.28
1. 46
1.44
1.32
3.71
4.04
4.20
4.59
4.70
4.30
4.52
6.80
7.12
6. 98
7.37
7.69
7. 90
7. 98
Manufacturing
Total1
Period
1939
1945
1948
1949
.. . '
1950
_
1951
1952 s
1953 *
-
.
5.51
8.69
22.06
19.28
20.60
25.64
26. 46
27.83
Total
1.94
3.98
9. 13
7.15
7.49
10.85
11.99
12.42
0.76
1.59
3.48
2.59
3. 14
5.17
5.78
5.86
11. 64
12.23
12. 48
12. 66
12. 71
12.44
12.08
(55)
1. 19
2.39
5.65
4.56
4.36
5. 68
6.21
6.56
0.33
.38
.88
.79
.71
.93
.88
.89
0.28
.55
1.32
1.35
1. 11
1.47
1.39
1.32
a 90
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1952: Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1953: First quarter.
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter 3
1 954 : First quarter 3
1
2
25. 49
26.96
27. 18
28.06
28. 82
28.28
27.96
()
(55)
()
(55)
()
(fi)
(55)
()
(5}
(5)
(5)
(5)
(5)
.83
.87
.86
.84
.95
.91
.88
1. 24
1.32
1.38
1.32
1. 30
1.28
1. 18
Excludes agriculture.
Commercial and other includes trade, service, finance, communications, and construction.
a Estimates for fourth quarter of 1953 and first quarter of 1954 based on anticipated capital expenditures reported by business in a November survey.
* Annual total is sum of seasonally unadjusted quarterly expenditures; it does not necessarily coincide with average of seasonally adjusted figures, in part
because of adjustments when necessary for systematic tendencies in anticipatory data. 6 Not available.
NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the
latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce.
16
NEW CONSTRUCTION
Both public
construction increased in November, on a seasonally adjusted basis, bringing the JanuaryNovember total to 7 percent
the corresponding period of 1952.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
3.5
p
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
3.5
ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION
PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL
(NONFARM)
-FEDERAL, STATE,AND LOCAL
I
J
I
F
I
M
I
A
I
M
I
J
I
J
I
A
I
S
I
O
I
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
195I
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
1952
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
1953
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Period
1939 monthly average .
1942 monthly average
1 944 monthly average
- 1946 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average
1950 monthly average
June
- - - - - 1951 monthly average
1952 monthly average
1952- October
- November
_ _
December
1953* January
February
- M arch
April
M av
_ _
June
Julv
August
September
October
November a
J Includes public residential construction.
2 Preliminary estimates.
Total new
construction
683
1,173
438
1,000
1,806
1, 899
2,371
2, 366
2, 575
2,720
2, 744
2, 781
2,774
2, 829
2, 985
3, 050
3,007
2, 910
2,923
2,854
2,825
2, 828
2, 851
2,916
Private construction
Residential
Total
Other
(nonfarm)
private
142
223
366
142
143
285
114
182
68
469
803
335
689
1, 404
715
676
689
, 365
738
1, 050
, 788
721
1,072
,793
914
883
, 797
925
893
,818
886
,832
946
965
891
, 856
891
980
1,871
916
949
1,865
1, 959
1,011
948
1,092
965
2, 057
1,061
2,038
977
991
1,978
987
1, 979
979
1,000
1, 953
975
978
1, 940
953
987
1, 921
984
937
987
1,937
950
962
1,003
1, 965
Federal,
State, and
local *
317
888
256
197
402
534
583
573
778
902
912
925
903
964
1,026
993
969
932
944
901
885
907
914
951
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.
NEW HOUSING STARTS
The number of housing units started in October was 88,000, a drop of 4,000 from September. On a seasonally
adjusted basis, private starts at an annual rate of 1,006,000 units exceeded the rates of the previous 2 months.
THOUSANDS of UNITS
THOUSANDS OF UNITS
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE = DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
All new nonfarm housing units started
Period
Total
Annual totals* 1949
1950
1951
1952
Monthly average! 1949
1950
1951
1952
1952: September
October.
November
December
1953: January.
February
.
March
April
'
May June
:
July !
August
l
September
October J _
* Preliminary estimates.
18
_
_
„_
___
2 Less than 50.
1, 025, 100
1, 396, 000
1, 091, 300
1, 127, 000
85, 400
116, 300
90, 900
93, 900
100, 800
101, 100
86, 100
71, 500
72, 100
79, 200
105, 800
111,400
108, 300
104, 600
96, 700
94, 000
92, 000
88, 000
Public
36, 300
43, 800
71,200
58, 500
3,000
3,600
5,900
4,900
1,600
1,900
3,800
3,900
3, 900
5,400
9,700
4,000
2,700
2,600
300
1,000
3,000
(2)
Private
988, 800
1, 352, 200
1, 020, 100
1, 068, 500
82, 400
112, 700
85, 000
89, 000
99, 200
99, 200
82, 300
67, 600
68, 200
73, 800
96, 100
107, 400
105, 600
102, 000
96, 400
93, 000
89, 000
88, 000
Source: Department of Labor.
Seasonally adjusted annual
rates: private
1, 102, 000
1, 134,000
1, 122, 000
1, 127, 000
1, 137, 000
1, 213, 000
1, 165, 000
1, 141, 000
1, 039, 000
1, 037, 000
1, 006, 000
970, 000
989, 000
3, 006,000
INVENTORIES AND SALES
Total business sales, seasonally adjusted, increased slightly in October. The increase reflected higher wholesale
and retail sales. However,, sales of retailers dipped below the level of a year ago, while their inventories were higher.
Total business inventories declined for the first time since January of this year.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
TOTALS AND MANUFACTURING
x\
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
TOTAL INVENTORIES*
INDEX, 1947-49= 100
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Period
Total business *
InvenSales *
tories %
Retail
InvenSales *
tories *
Manufacturing
Inventories *
Sales »
New
orders1
Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
1939
1946
1947 . . 1948
1949
1950
June
1951
„
1952
._
1 952 : September .
October
November
December
1953: January
February
March
April
May
June.
July
August
September
October 6
November 6
C* J
1
20, 051
42, 942
_ 50, 605
55, 647
52, 264
62, 423
54, 191
8
74, 059
74, 757
73, 437
74, 189
74, 682
74, 757
74, 619
74, 941
75, 335
76, 466
76, 836
.
77,511
78, 310
78, 748
79, 380
79, 035
10, 802
27, 150
33, 156
36, 438
34, 664
39, 425
39, 548
1
44, 454
45,554
46, 288
48, 344
46, 229
48, 023
47, 383
48, 827
49, 104
49, 988
49, 406
49, 250
49, 614
48, 195
47, 431
47, 563
5,534
11,852
14, 060
15, 828
15,311
18, 652
16, 139
1
20, 754
20, 804
20, 281
20, 652
20, 895
20, 804
20, 814
20, 973
21, 096
21, 656
21, 543
21, 572
22, 088
22, 115
22, 280
22, 061
3,503
8,541
9,967
10, 877
10, 893
11, 974
12, 069
8
13, 185
13, 674
13, 570
14, 202
14, 026
14, 410
14, 140
14, 514
14, 437
14, 280
14, 467
14, 412
14, 469
14, 073
13, 982
14. 024
14, 270
11,465
24, 498
28, 920
31, 734
28, 972
34, 118
29, 603
43, 039
43, 824
43, 224
43, 415
43, 596
43, 824
43, 766
43, 848
44, 056
44, 565
44, 970
45, 525
45, 792
46, 195
46, 515
46, 294
5,112
12, 617
15, 917
17, 630
16, 416
19, 312
19, 502
22, 334
23, 043
23, 663
24, 753
23, 430
24, 276
24, 292
25, 170
25, 469
26, 850
26, 226
26, 172
26, 514
25, 398
24, 882
24, 774
5,354
13, 694
15, 622
17, 350
15, 903
20, 967
20, 506
24, 431
23, 603
24, 516
24, 152
23, 061
24, 466
24, 270
25, 530
24, 591
25, 721
25, 306
25, 553
24, 417
22, 419
22, 449
22, 369
Department stores
InvenSales *
tories *
Index 1947-49=100,
seasonally adjusted
35
35
90
77
98
93
107
104
100
98
109
105
104
103
129
109
110
118
120
108
121
lift
122
11
120
15
11
123
123
12
122
15
125
10
j^
127
1 ,
128
1 *
130
1 *
131
0
128
128
N
Also includes wholesale, not shown separately in this table.
*Kevised series beginning with 1951; not comparable with prrvloita <i*«u
*1 Book value, end of period.
See Survey of Current Business, September and November J962, for tlH*j;
Monthly average for year and total for month.
• Preliminary estimates.
« Book value, end of period, except annual data, which are monthly averages.
Source: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System.
MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
An increase in grant-aid shipments in October accounted for the rise in total exports.
there was a widening of the gap between commercial exports and imports.
With a decline in imports,
ONS OF DOLLARS
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
,600
1,200
MERCHANDISE EXPORTS
EXCLUDING GRANT-AID
SHIPMENTS'/
1953
J/ SEE FOOTNOTES I AND 2 ON TABLE BELOW.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE.
[Millions of dollars]
Merchandise exports
Period
1936—38 monthly average 1946 monthly average
.
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average
1950 monthly average
June
1951 monthly average.
1952 monthly average
1952: September
..
October
November _
December
1953: January
February
March
«.
April .
May
....
June
July
Au gu st
September
October
1
2
Total
l
247
812
1,054
1,003
856
877
1,253
1,265
1,228
1,216
1, 190
1,391
1,292
1,197
1,389
1, 397
1,448
1,378
1,349
1, 183
1,235
1,256
Grant-aid
shipments 3
Excluding
grant-aid
shipments
54
757
24
833
89
166
248
173
195
283
277
272
337
340
367
371
398
274
204
234
1, 164
1,099
980
1,042
996
1, 108
1,015
924
1,051
1,057
1,081
1,006
951
908
1,031
1,022
Merchandise
imports
207
412
594
552
738
687
914
893
877
918
804
1,052
922
856
1,004
1,013
902
934
908
842
926
822
Excess of e xports
i (/ )\ (+)
or impc rts
Total
+ 40
+ 400
+460
+ 452
+ 118
+ 190
+ 339
+ 372
+ 351
+ 297
+ 386
+ 338
+ 370
+ 341
+ 384
+ 384
+ 546
+444
+ 441
+ 341
+ 309
+ 434
Excluding
grant-aid
shipments
+ 345
+ 95
+ 250
+ 206
+ 103
+ 124
+ 191
+ 55
+ 92
+ 68
+ 47
+ 44
+ 180
+ 73
+ 44
+ 67
+ 105
+ 200
Includes shipments under the various grant-aid programs; for some of these programs separate data are not available.
Beginning with 1950, figures include only Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Mutual Security Program. Shipments for the first 6 months of the prop-am (July-December 1950) amounted to 282 million dollars,
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Defense.
20
PURCHASING POWER
NATIONAL INCOME
High employment and increased wage rates in private industries accounted for the third quarter rise in compensation
of employees, according to recent estimates. There was also a small rise in net interest receipts and in rental
income, and little change in independent business and professional incomes. The income of farm proprietors was
lower.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
350
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
350
300
300
^S':CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY
•^:::::::::^^
200
200
100
1939
1949
1950
1951
1952
1954
1953
y PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED}.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
(Billions of dollars]
Total
national
income
Period
1939
1944
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
.
.
72.5
183. 8
180.3
198.7
223.5
216. 3
240. 6
278.4
291.6
Corporate profits and inventory
valuation adjustment
Compensation of
employees
Proprietors'
(business,
professional,
farm)
and rental
income
Net interest
47.8
121.2
117. 1
128. 0
140. 2
139. 9
153.4
178. 9
193.2
14.7
35.5
42.0
42. 4
47.3
42. 1
45. 4
50.7
51.2
4.2
3. 1
2.9
3.5
4.3
5.0
5.7
6.4
7.0
Total
5.8
24. 0
18.3
24.7
31. 7
29. 2
36. 0
42. 4
40. 2
Profits
before
taxes
Inventory
valuation
adjustment
6. 5
24. 3
23. 5
30. 5
33. 8
27. 1
41. 0
43. 7
39. 2
-0.7
-.3
-5.2
— 5. 8
2. 1
+ 2.1
-5.0
-1.3
+ 1.0
41.5
38. 2
37.0
40. 3
44. 6
45. 9
0) 46. 0
+.2
+ 1.7
+.7
+ 1.4
-.8
-.6
-2.6
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1952: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
1953: First quarter
Second quarter
Third Quarter
286.8
287. 9
290.4
301.4
306.7
310.7
1
f ) 310. 8
187.9
189. 5
194. 1
201.3
204.5
208. 0
210. 4
i Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
50.5
51. 5
51.5
51. 1
50.8
49.7
49. 1
6.7
6.9
7. 1
7.4
7.6
7.7
7.9
41. 7
39. 9
37. 7
41. 7
43.8
45. 2
0) 43. 4
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).
21
CORPORATE PROFITS
Third quarter aggregate corporate profits, both before and after taxes / are estimated to be about the same as in the
second quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
60
60
20
10
10
1954
ALLOWANCE FOR INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT.
^PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL .OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED).
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
(Billions of dollars]
Corporate
profits
before taxes
Period
1939
1944
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
..«.
6.5
24.3
23.5
30.5
33.8
27. 1
41.0
43.7
39. 2
...
Corporate
tax
liability
1.5
13.5
9.6
11.9
13.0
10.8
18.2
23.6
20.6
Corporate profits after taxes
Total
5.0
10.8
13.9
18.5
20.7
16.3
22.7
20. 1
18.6
Dividend
payments
3.8
4.7
5.8
6.6
72
7.5
9. 1
9.2
9.1
Undistributed
profits
1.2
6.1
8.1
12.0
13.5
8.8
13.6
10.9
9.5
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1952: First quarter .
Second quarter.. ..
Third quarter . .
Fourth quarter »
1953: First quarter
Second quarterThird quarter 1
. .
41.5
38.2
37.0
40.3
21.8
20. 1
19.4
21.2
19.7
18.0
17.5
19.1
9.1
9.1
9.1
9.1
10.6
8.9
8.4
10.0
44.6
45.9
46.0
24.4
25.0
25. 1
20.3
20.8
20.9
9.2
9.4
9.6
11. 1
11.4
11.3
i Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers.
NOTE.—See p. 21 for profits before taxes and inventory valuation adjustment. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).
22
PERSONAL INCOME
The rise of $1 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in personal income in October resulted mainly from the payment of a special dividend from the Government life insurance fund to certain World War I veterans. There was little
or no charge otherwise.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
300
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
300
250
250
200
150
150
100
1939
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1951
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
Total personal Income
Period
1939
1944
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
—
72.6
165.9
209.5
205.9
226.7
254.3
269.7
1950: June
1952: October
November
December
1953: January
February
March
- -.
April
May
June
July
August
September
_ ._
October 3
221.3
277.3
277. 2
280.6
280. 5
281.0
283.6
282.7
284.7
286.3
287.5
287.0
286.3
287.3
[Billions of dollars]
Proprietors' income
Labor income
Dividends
(salaries,
Business,
wages, and
professional, and personal
Farm
interest
other labor
and rental
income)1
income l
10.2
9.2
45.7
4.5
10.6
116.2
23.7
11.8
16.0
29.6
134.9
17.7
17.1
29.3
134.2
12.8
19.6
32. 1
13. 3
146.5
35.2
20.5
170.7
15.5
36. 1
21.0
14,8
184.9
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
32.1
12.2
36.7
14.4
36.4
13.4
37.4
14.3
37.2
14.3
37.2
12.8
13.2
37.3
37.1
12.1
37.3
12. 5
37.2
12.6
37.3
11.9
37.3
11.4
37.4
11.4
37.5
11.4
144. 7
191.6
192.9
193.8
193.9
196.0
197.5
197.9
199.3
200.7
202. 4
202.2
201. 1
201.0
18.7
21.3
21.4
21.5
21.6
21.7
21. 9
22.0
22.1
22.3
22.4
22.5
22.7
22.8
es social insurance contributions of employees and, beginning January 1952, of self-employed persons.
2 Includes $2.7 billion National Service Life Insurance dividend, most of which was paid in the first half of the year.
«Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
Transfer
payments
3
3.0
3.6
11.3
12.4
15. 1
12.5
12.9
13.6
13.3
13.1
13.6
13.5
13.3
13.7
13.6
13.5
13.5
13.5
13.6
13. 6
14,6
23
CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING
Disposable personal Income rose more than consumer spending in the third quarter, according to current estimates.
Personal saving during the quarter was 7K percent of disposable income.
BILLIONS OF. DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
300
300
250
250
200
200
50
1941
1943
1945
1947
1949
1951
1953
1954
•^PERSONAL INCOME LESS TAXES.
SOURCE-' DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Disposable personal
income 1
Period
Less: Personal consumption expenditures
Total
NonduDurable
goods rable goods
Equals:
Personal
net
saving
Net saving
as percent
of disposable
income
25.5
28.5
31.2
37.4
445
49. 1
54. 1
57.5
62.7
67.4
72.7
2.7
9.8
25.6
35.4
12.0
3.9
10. 5
6.7
11.3
16. 9
16.9
3.8
10. 6
21.9
24.1
7.6
2.3
5.6
3.6
5.5
7.5
7.2
70.5
71. 8
73.3
75. 1
76.3
77.6
79.2
15. 0
14.5
19.4
18.6
17. 7
17.2
18.8
6.6
6.3
8.2
7.7
7.2
6.9
7. 5
Services
Billions of dollars
1939
1941
1942
1944
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951..
1952..
..
_
70.2
92.0
116.7
147.0
158.9
169.5
188.4
187.2
205. 8
225.0
235.0
_
67.5
82.3
91.2
111.6
146.9
165.6
177.9
180.6
194. 6
208. 1
218. 1
6.7
9.8
7. 1
7.1
16.6
21.4
22.9
23.8
29.2
27.3
26. 7
35.3
44.0
52.9
67.1
85.8
95. 1
100.9
99.2
102. 6
113.4
118.8
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1952: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1953: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter..
_
___
228.7
231.7
236. 6
243.0
245.4
247.7
249. 8
i Income less taxes.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
24
213. 7
217. 2
217.2
224.4
227. 7
230. 4
231.0
26.0
27.4
25. 1
28.2
30.2
30. 7
30.4
117.2
118.0
118.7
121. 1
121. 2
122. 1
121.3
Source: Department of Commerce.
PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE INCOME
Per capita disposable income (in current dollars) increased to a new record high in the third quarter, according to
current estimates. It was nearly 4 percent above the third quarter of last year/ adjusted for price changes it was
2 percent higher.
DOLLARS
2,000
DOLLARS
2,000
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
ANNUAL AVERAGES
1952 PRICES^
1,500
1,500
CURRENT PRICES
1,000
1,000
500
I
1943
I
I
I
t
i
l
J
l
1945
1952
1951
I
1953
1954
-'SEE NOTE 2 ON TABLE BELOW.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Total disposable personal Per capita disposable perincome (billions of dollars)1
sonal income (dollars)1
Period
Current
prices
1939 . . . . . . .
1941
1942...
_
1944
1946
1947 ..
1948
1949
1950
1951
..
1952
_.
...
70. 2
92.0
116. 7
147.0
158.9
169. 5
188.4
187.2
205. 8
225. 0
235.0
1952
prices 2
138.2
169. 4
191. 3
210.3
204.2
198. 2
208. 6
209. 9
225.7
229. 6
235.0
Current
prices
536
690
865
1,062
1, 124
1,176
1,285
1, 255
1,357
1,458
1,497
1952
prices *
1,055
1,271
1,418
1,519
1,445
1,375
1,423
1,407
1,488
1,488
1,497
Population
(thousands)1
131, 028
133, 402
134, 860
138, 397
141, 389
144, 126
146, 631
149, 188
151, 677
154, 360
156, 981
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1952: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1953: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
.
...
228.7
231.7
236.6
243.0
230.2
231.7
236. 1
241.8
1,465
1,479
1,503
1,537
1,475
1,479
1,500
1,529
156, 064
156, 669
157,370
158, 122
245.4
247.7
249.8
244. 4
245. 5
245. 1
1, 546
1, 554
1,560
1,540
1,539
1,531
158,752
159, 366
160, 094
»Income less taxes.
* Dollar estimates in current prices divided by an over-all implicit price index for personal consumption expenditures. This price index is based on Department
of Commerce data, shifted from a 1939 base.
»Including armed forces overseas. Annual data as of July l; quarterly data centered in the middle of the period, interpolated from monthly figures.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Council of Economic Advisers,
25
FARM INCOME
Although farm income rose in October, reflecting the seasonal increase in marketings, it was 9 percent below the
corresponding month of last year. For the first 10 months of this year farmers have received $24.9 billion from marketings and Government payments, or about 5/2 percent less than in the corresponding period of 1952.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
5
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
5
1940 4! 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52
1951
y FARM INCOME IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY PARITY INDEX ON BASE 1952*100.
NOTE: FARM INCOME INCLUDES CASH RECEIPTS FROM MARKETINGS AND GOVERNMENT PAYMENTS.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.
Period
1939
1942
1944
1946
1948
1949
1950
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
June
_
-»
1951 monthly average
1952 monthly average
1952: September
October
November „
December. »
1953*. January
February. .
March. ».
-April
May .
June
July
August
September
8
October -
«
-
-
-- -- - '
_
.
-
- -
l--~
Parity index
Farm income
Farm income
(prices paid,
(millions of
(millions of
interest, taxes,
current
and wage rates) 1952 dollars) *
dollars)
1952 = 100^
1,663
715
43
2,538
1,345
53
2, 798
1, 763
63
2, 932
2, 111
72
2, 790
91
-2, 539
2,694
2, 344
87
2, 679
89
2,384
2, 122
89
1, 889
2,813
2,757
98
2,721
2,721
100
3,467
100
3, 467
4, 049
4,009
99
3,393
98
3, 325
3,019
2,959
98
2,863
99
2,834
1,989
1, 949
98
2, 143
2, 100
98
2,042
98
2,001
2,051
2,010
98
2,261
97
2, 193
2,532
97
2, 456
2,571
2,494
97
3, 296
97
3, 197
3,817
96
3, 664 »
> ('on verted from the reported base, 1910-14 = 100, to the base 1952=100.
* 1-jtnn income in eurrent dollars divided by parity index on base 1952=100.
3
I'rHimimiry estimates.
N m i,.- Farm income includes cash receipts from marketings and Government payments.
t-utiriu-; Jk'jmrtLueiit of Agriculture.
COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
CREDIT, MONEY, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS
Bank loans and investments increased somewhat in October after registering very small decreases in the two preceding
months. The loan expansion, which occurred in Agriculture (CCC) and interbank loans, totaled $800 million for the
month. Investments in Government securities were fractionally higher.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
175
BILLIONS" OF DOLLARS
175
1952
1945
1950
END OF YEAR
1952
END OF MONTH
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
All commercial banks
End of period
1939
1945
1947
1949
1950
.
-
June
.
-
.
1951
1952
1952* October
November.
December
1953* January
February March
April
May
June- «
_
_-
---
._«»-
July
August
September.
October 3
November ^
-
.
-
.
Investments
Total
loans and
investments
Bank loans
40.7
124. 0
116.3
120.2
126.7
121. 8
132.6
141.6
139.4
141. 7
141.6
140.8
140. 1
140. 0
138.5
138. 1
138, 0
143.2
143. 1
143.0
143.9
17.2
26. 1
38. 1
43. 0
52.2
44. 8
57.7
64.2
62. 4
63.4
64.2
63.9
64. 1
65.2
65.3
65.4
65.0
65.6
66.0
66. 3
67. 1
Total
23.4
97.9
78.2
77.2
74.4
77.0
74.9
77.5
77.0
78.3
77.5
76.9
76.0
74.8
73.2
72.7
72.9
77.6
77.1
76.7
76.8
U.S.
Government
securities
16.3
90.6
69. 2
67.0
62.0
65.8
61.5
63.3
62.9
64. 1
63.3
62.8
61.9
60.5
58.9
58.3
58.6
63.2
62.6
62. 2
62.3
Other
securities
7.1
7.3
9.0
10.2
12.4
11 2
13.3
14. 1
14.2
14.2
14. 1
14.2
14. 1
14.3
14.4
14.4
14.3
14.3
14.5
14. 5
14.4
2
J Commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans; revised series beginning January 1952.
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Beserve System.
Weekly
reporting
member
banks —
business
loans *
4.7
7.2
14.7
13. ft
17.9
13. 6
21.6
23.4
22.5
23. 1
23.4
22.8
22.7
23.3
23. 1
22.8
22. 8
22.6
22.9
23. 1
23. ;•;
23.1'
CONSUMER CREDIT
Consumer credit outstanding at the end of October amounted to $28.2 billion, $187 million above the previous
month-end and $4.0 billion above a year earlier. Instalment credit, primarily for automobiles, accounted for most
of the expansion. In the noninstalment credit area, a seasonal rise in charge accounts offset in part a decrease in
service accounts.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
30
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
30
1945
I95O
END OF YEAR
1951
I95E
1952
END OF MONTH
1953
COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
SOURCE: iOARO OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
[Millions of dollars]
Total
consumer
credit
outstanding
End of period
1939
1945
1950
.
June
1951
..
1952
1952: September
October
November
December
1953: January
February
March
April
Mav
June
_
July
August
September
October 4
_
7,222
5,665
20, 813
18,417
21,468
25, 827
23, 520
24, 147
24, 611
25, 827
25, 674
25, 504
25, 946
26, 455
27, 056
27,411
27, 581
27, 810
27, 979
28, 166
Instalment credit
Total
Automobile
paper *
4,503
2,462
14, 490
12, 931
14, 837
18, 684
17, 090
17, 611
17, 961
18, 684
18, 851
18, 982
19, 391
19, 767
20, 213
20, 635
21, 004
21,218
21, 347
21, 486
1,497
455
6,342
5,724
6,242
8, 099
7,380
7,630
7,856
8, 099
8, 273
8,480
8,799
9, 111
9,432
9, 692
9,973
10, 136
10, 232
10, 337
Noninstalment credit
Other Repair and
8
Charge
consumer moderni- Personal
Total
accounts Other
zation2
loans
goods
loans
paper *
1,414
1,305
2,719
1,088
298
1,620
1,591
1,612
3,203
1,009
182
816
3,317
3,006
6,323
2,805
1,006
4,337
3, 136
2,350
5,486
2,616
912
3,679
3,535
3,096
6,631
3,235
1,090
4,270
3,801
3,342
7,143
3,851
1,406
5,328
3,780
2,650
6,430
3,699
1,312
4,699
3,747
2,789
6, 536
1,362
3, 724
4,895
2,839
3,811
6, 650
3,750
4,962
1, 393
3,801
3,342
7, 143
3,851
1, 406
5,328
3,848
2, 975
6,823
3,887
1,403
5,288
3,844
2, 678
6, 522
3,890
1, 404
5,208
3, 942
2,613
6,555
3,959
1,416
5, 217
4,006
2, 682
6,688
4,004
1,435
5,217
4,080
2,763
6,843
1,462
4,047
5,272
3,995
2,781
6,776
4, 117
1,493
5,333
3,872
2,705
6,577
4, 164
1, 516
5,351
3,924
2,668
6,592
1,534
4, 186
5,362
3, 916
2, 716
1, 562 . 4, 201 6,632
5, 352
3,869
2,811
6,680
4,198
1, 585
5,366
1
Includes all consumer credit extended for the purpose of purchasing automobiles and other consumer goods and secured by the items purchased.
2 Includes only such loans held by financial institutions; those held by retail outlets are included in "other consumer goods paper."
3 Single-payment loans and service credit.
* Preliminary estimates.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
NOTE.—Series revised back to January 1952; see Federal Reserve Bulletin, November 1953. Detail will not necessarily add to totals.because ofgrounding.
28
BOND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES
Yields on 3-month Treasury bills, high grade corporate bonds, and Treasury bonds ceased declining in November.
However, the rate on prime commercial paper fell again.
PERCENT PER A N N U M
PERCENT PER A N N U M
3.5
3.5
1353
1948
SOURCE: BOARD OP GOVERNORS OF THE
FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Percent per annum]
U. S. Government security yields
Period
1939
1946
194g
1950
1951
1952
1952* November
December
1953* January
February
March
April
**j.a,j
Mav
_
_
.
__
_
_.
..
.
«
- --«
June
July
._
August
September
October
-November
Week ended:
1953" November 7
14 _
21
28
December 5
--
_
-
--
3-month
Treasury
bills J
0.023
.375
1. 040
1.218
1.552
1.766
1.862
2. 126
2.042
2.018
2.082
2. 177
2.200
2.231
2. 101
2.088
1.876
1. 402
1.427
1.306
1.482
1.433
1.488
1.589
Taxable bonds 2
Old series3
New series4
Corporate
Aaa bonds
(Moody's)
Prime
commercial
paper,
4-6 months
0.59
.81
1.44
1.45
2. 17
2.33
2. 31
2.31
2.31
2.31
2.36
2.44
2.68
2.75
2.75
2.75
2.75
2.55
2.32
2.375
2.375
2.25
2. 25
3.25
2. 19
2. 44
2.32
2. 57
2.68
2.71
2.75
2.80
2.83
2.89
2.97
3. 09
3.09
2. 99
3.00
2.97
2. 83
2.85
3.26
3.29
3.25
3.22
3. 19
3. 06
3.04
3.01
2.53
2. 82
2.62
2.86
2.96
2.98
2.97
3.02
3.07
3. 12
3.23
3.34
3.40
3.28
3. 24
3.29
3. 16
3. 11
2.82
2.85
2. 86
2.88
2.85
3. 04
3. 06
3.03
3.04
3.01
3.09
3. 10
3. 13
3. 13
3. 14
i Rate on new issues within period.
* Bonds in this classification were first issued in March 1941.
s 2H-Percent bonds, 15 years and over prior to April 1952 and 12 years and over beginning in April 1952.
4 si^-pereent bonds of 1978-83, issued May 1,1953.
Source: Board uf Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
29
MONEY SUPPLY
The privately held money supply expanded by $3 billion in October to reach an all-time high of $197.3 billion.
The expansion reflected a shift of U. S. Government deposits to private deposits and a continued rise in time deposits.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
225
225
TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY
TOTAL EXCLUDING U. S. GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS
(PRIVATELY HELD MONEY SUPPLY)
DEMAND DEPOSITS ADJUSTED
TIME DEPOSITS
CURRENCY OUTSIDE BANKS
X
U.S. GOVERNMENT
,
1940
41
42 43
44 45 46 47
48 49 50
51
DEPOSITS
IV
52
1951
END OF YEAR
1952
END OF MONTH
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
Total deposits and
currency
End of period
1939
1945
1946
1948
1949
1950
..
June
1951
1952
1952: September
Oct ober
November
December
1953: January _
February
March April
May
,1 une
July
August _
September
October 4 _ _ _
*jr
__
64.7
176.4
167.5
172. 7
173. 9
180. 6
174.7
189.8
200. 4
194.2
196. 1
198.9
200.4
198.2
197.4
196.9
195. 4
195.3
196.6
201.3
201. 1
201. 1
201. 7
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars"!
Total excluding U. S. Government deposits
U.S.
(privately held money supply)
Government
Demand
Currency
Time
deposits *
deposits 2
Total
outside
deposits
*
adjusted
banks
27. 1
29 8
6.4
63.3
1.5
48. 5
75. 9
25.6
150. 8
26.5
54. 0
83 3
164,0
26.7
3.5
57.5
85.5
26. 1
3.6
169. 1
58. 6
85.8
4. 1
169.8
25. 4
59.2
92.3
176.9
3.7
25. 4
59.7
85. 0
25.2
4.8
170.0
61.4
98.2
3.9
186.0
26. 3
65.8
194. 8
5.6
101. 5
27.5
64. 5
96.4
187.4
6.8
26.6
64.9
98.6
5.9
190.2
26.7
64.8
99.4
27.4
7.3
191. 6
65.8
101.5
27.5
5.6
194.8
66. 1
100. 5
4.9
193.3
26.8
66.4
98.3
26. 9
191.6
5.8
66.8
97.4
26.9
5. 8
191. 0
67.2
98.0
192. 2
3. 2
27.0
67.6
97.5
192. 1
27.0
3.3
68.3
96.9
192.6
27. 4
4. 1
68. 4
97. 4
27.2
8.3
193.0
68. 7
97.5
193.4
27. 3
7.7
69. 1
97. 7
6.8
27.6
194.3
69. 6
100.3
197. 3
27*4
4. 4
!
•s l . S. (Jovorniiioiit deposits at Federal Reserve banks and commercial and savings banks, and U. S. Treasurer's time deposits,
i.
•s demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection.
'.«: iJi-|ii)sii.s in commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System, but excludes interbank deposits.
30
I >«'!uil u ill not nocoyjsurily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES
Budget expenditures declined slightly in November. The cumulative budget deficit for the fiscal year starting
July was $7.9 billion at the end of the month, or $300 million lower than at the same time last year.
BILlJONS OF DOLLARS
75
BILLJONS OF DOLLARS
//
.^>,'',*••""
TOTAL BUDGET EXPENDITURES
50
S
./
1954
J
?5
A
25
1
"" _^«^.«***
***£.•''''
FISCAL YEAR
^^r-'*
S
1954
!
O
I
N
!
D
!
J
I
F
\
M
I
A
J
J
+ 10
MAJOR NATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAMS
"
^ts^f"
0 ^**f^* I
I
M
^
^
XV'** ^^F|SCAL YEAR 1952
FISCAL YEAR 1953*--^ X^-******
^f^?'"''
1
0 -Xn
50
I952
^•""
FISCAL YEAR
NET BUDGET RECEIPTS
.•**
FISCAL YEAR 1953 ^X^..-'*<^.F!SCAL YEAR
25
75
A
!
S
!
O
i
N
D
|
i
|
J
F
M
|
i
A
|
M
v
l
BUDGET SURPLUS (+) OR DEFICIT (-)
(MAGNIFIED SCALE)
+5
_**^
50
x-O
^^
.«•*"
FISCAL YEAR 1953 **^
x*
^"'
>*
25
FISCAL YEAR
1954
f
O
V
"*"
.^
^§£......"*"*\ ***ISCAL YEAR
****". .••*******
^ST^'^i
J***^
^^FISCAL YEAR 1952
-5
l952
«.
/
^-e.% •..
FISCAL YEAR 1954 ^ *••..
/
F.SCAL YEAR 1953-^^
1
0 -*** *!
J
!
A
f
S
I
O
1
N
i
O
I
J
!
F
1
M
1
A
!
M
I
-10
J
J
!
A
!
S
I
O
-
D
J
I/
F
M
^
**••*
/ /\
1 ^>«^J
N
X
*
1
A
»•**
*"*"
V
!
s
jjv^j
FISCAL YEARS-CUMULATIVE TOTALS
SOURCES : TREASURY DEPARTMENT AN.D BUREAU .OF THE BUDGET.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ACVISWS
I Millions of dollars!
Period
Fiscsl
Fiscal
Fiscal
Fiscal
Fiscal
Fiscal
Fiscal
Fiscal
1952"
year 1 944
vear 1947
year 1948
year 1949
vear 1950
year 1951
year 1952
year 1953
November
December
1953* January ..
February
March
April
IVIay
June
July
Au gu st
September
October
November
_ - -
surplus ( + )
Net budget receipts Budget
Budget expenditures
or deficit ( — )
Major national
Total
Cumulasecurity programs l
Cumula- Total for tive
Total
for
fiscal
Cumula- Total for Cumula- period tive fiscal period
year
Total for tive
year
totals
tive
fiscal
fiscal
totals
period year totals period year totals
-51.4
43.9
88. 2
95.3
40.0
+ .8
20.9
39.3
-1-8.4
42. 2
16. 4
33. 8
38.2
19. 1
40. 1
-1.8
-3. 1
37.0
17.8
40. 2
+ 3.5
48. 1
26. 4
44. 6
62. 1
47.2
-4.0
66. 1
8
-9. 4
65. 2
52. 8
74.6
-8.2
21.2
-1.0
21.2
4. 2
29. 4
5.2
3.9
i i
-9.3
27. 2
4. 6
25. 9
6.0
36. 5
7. 1
-10.0
32. 3
42.2
-.7
4.2
30. 1
5. 1
5.7
-10. 1
37. 7
34. 2
47. 8
4. 2
—.1
5. 5
5.6
-5.8
+ 4.3
48. 2
38.9
54.0
4.7
10.5
6.2
-9. 3
-3.5
51. 1
60.4
43.5
2. 8
4. 6
6.4
— 11. 1
4. 4
55. 5
6.2
47. 9
— 1. 9
66. 6
4.5
-9.4
+ 1.8
65. 2
74.6
9.7
52.7
8.0
4.8
-2.8
-2.8
3. 3
3.3
4.6
6. 1
4.6
6. 1
-4.2
-1.5
12. 1
4.2
4. 6
7. 9
6.0
8.8
j
-4.3
6. 0
13. 9
4. 4
13. 2
6. 1
18. 2
-7. 1
2. 7
16. 6
—9
&. oo
4.2
17.4
23. 7
5. 5
4
4
-7.9
21. 4
4. 0
4. 7
21. 3
5.4
29. 1
Public
debt
(end of3
period)
202.6
258.4
252. 4
252. 8
257. 4
255. 3
259.2
266. 1
267.5
267.4
267.5
267. 6
264. 5
264. 6
266.6
266. 1
272.7
273. 3
273.0
273. 5
275, 3
1
Includes expenditures for military services, international security and foreign relations, development and control of atomic energy, promotion of the merchuui
marine, promotion of defense production and economic stabilization, and civil defense.
a3 Includes guaranteed securities, except those held by the Treasury. Not all of total shown
is subject to statutory debt limitation.
4
Data for fiscal year not strictly comparable with monthly figures.
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget.
FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM
AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC
Cash payments in the third quarter exceeded cash receipts by $3.5 billion, compared with a cash deficit of $2.6 billion
in the correspondins quarter of 1952. Cash payments were 6 percent higher than last year while cash receipts were
1 percent higher.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25
1953
I960
- EXCESS OF CASHTRECE1PTS -
m
LJ
-EXCESS OF CASH PAYMENTS -
2
3
1952
1953
CALENDAR YEARS
SOURCES: BUREAU OF THE BUDGET AND TREASURY DEPARTMENT.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
fMillions of dollars!
Calendar year
Calendar year total:
1946
1947
1948
_
1949.....
1950
_
1951
1952
Quarterly totals, not adjusted for seasonal variation:
1951: Third quarter
Fourth quarter
. . . .
1952: First quarter
..
Second quarter
Third quarter.
..
Fourth quarter
1953: First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Excess of receipts (-f ) or
payments ( — )
Federal cash
receipts from
the public
Federal cash
payments to
the public
41,441
44, 282
44, 922
41, 346
42, 419
59, 278
71, 339
41, 399
38, 616
36, 897
42, 642
41, 969
58, 034
72, 980
+ 5, 666
+ 8,027
— 1,295
+ 450
+ 1,244
-1,641
13, 993
125 770
21, 874
19, 389
15, 354
14, 722
15, 270
17, 064
16, 921
18, 701
17, 921
19, 436
-1,277
-4,295
+ 4,953
+ 688
-2,567
-4, 715
22, 539
18, 674
15, 502
18, 166
21, 049
19, 015
+ 4,373
-2,375
-3, 513
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Bouzeaa; Bureau of the Budget and Treasury Department
32
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