Full text of Economic Indicators : December 1948
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Joint Committee Print
80th Congress, 2d Session
Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report
by the Council of Economic Advisers
and printed for the use of
the joint Committee on the Economic Report
UNITED [STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1848
82782
JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
ROBERT A. TAFT, Ohio, Chairman
JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan, Vice Chairman
JOSEPH H. BALL, Minnesota
RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont
ARTHUR V. WATKINS, Utah
JOSEPH C. O'MAHONEY, Wyoming
FRANCIS J. MYERS, Pennsylvania
JOHN SPARKMAN, Alabama
GEORGE H. BENDER, Ohio
CHRISTIAN A. HERTER, Massachusetts
ROBERT F. RICH, Pennsylvania
EDWARD J. HART, New Jersey
WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas
WALTER B. HUBER, Ohio
FRED E. BERQUIST, Assistant Staff Director
JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk
WILLIAM H. MOORE, Economist
To the Members of Congress:
From the time the Joint Committee on the Economic
Report was established, its members realized that one of
its basic needs was a concise and meaningful picture of
current economic trends and developments.
Fortunately, the Joint Committee finds that Economic
Indicators, a set of basic charts and tables compiled
monthly by the Council of Economic Advisers, admirably
fills this need. While this material was prepared primarily for the use of the President, the Council and other
officials in the executive offices, the Council has made it
available to the Joint Committee.
Other Members of Congress have also expressed an
interest in being able to obtain a quick picture of current
economic facts without having to go through voluminous and specialized documents. In addition,
businessmen, farm leaders, labor organizations, and representatives of the press and radio have indicated their
desire for this information. Since nothing contained
11
in these charts and tables is of a confidential nature they
have urged that the material be made available to the
general public.
Accordingly, the Joint Committee has for the past
several months provided the Congress and the public
with a limited number of copies of Economic Indicators.
The response to these issues has indicated such widespread interest that the Committee has arranged to
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print until action can be taken on authorizing the publication on a more permanent basis.
Comments or suggestions with respect to possible
improvements in this presentation will always be
welcome.
Chairman^ Joint Committee on the Economic Report.
Letter o£ Transmittal
Hon. ROBERT A. TAFT, Chairman,
Joint Committee on the Economic Report,
United States Congress, Washington, D. C.
DEAR SENATOR: The Council of Economic Advisers is happy to cooperate with the
Joint Committee on the Economic Report in your plans to make Economic Indicators
available to the Congress as a whole and to the general public.
In carrying out its mandate under the Employment Act of 1946, the Council has
found it desirable to bring together in concise and graphic form the most important facts
showing current trends in the Nation's economy. Thus the Executive Office is in a better
position to point up the key problems of national economic policy and to promote the
improvement and coordination of the Federal Government's widespread statistical services.
We have realized, of course, that this material has a potential usefulness not only to
the President, the Council and the executive departments, but also to the Congress.
Furthermore, its usefulness to the general public has been impressed upon us, particularly
by the representatives of business, labor, agriculture, and consumer organizations with
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We believe the Joint Committee will perform a service of real value by giving wide
circulation to this material.
Sincerely yours,
Chairman.
Vice Chairman.
/
/
j
u
111
Contents
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
The Nation's Economic Budget
Page
1
PRICES
Consumers' Prices
Wholesale Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
Stock Prices
2
3
4
5
EMPLOYMENT
Labor Force
Employment in Business and Government
Average Weekly Hours
Work Stoppages
6
7
8
9
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production
Production of Selected Durable Manufactures
Production of Selected Nondurable Manufactures
New Construction
New Housing Starts
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
New Corporate Security Issues
Inventories and Sales
Exports and Imports
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
PURCHASING POWER
National Income
Corporate Profits
Personal Income
Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving
Per Capita Income
Average Hourly Earnings
Average Weekly Earnings
Farm Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Consumer Credit
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
Bank Loans and Investments
Money Supply
Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public
29
30
31
av
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC BUDGET
The total gross national product in 3rd quarter was more than 3 percent above the level of 1st half of
this year, chiefly as a result of price rises. The government surplus was greatly reduced as Federal
receipts from personal income taxes declined.
TOTAL (GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT*}
1948, FIRST HALF
1948, THIRD QUARTER
EXCESS OF
EXPENDITURES (-), RECElPTS(-f)
0
+
^ CONSUMER
VTA
SAVING
1948, FIRST HALF
CONSUMERS
BUSINESS
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
INTERNATIONAL
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL,STATE AND LOCAL)
CASH
SURPLUS
1948, THIRD QUARTER
CONSUMERS
jCONSUMER
\ SAVING
BUSINESS
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
INTERNATIONAL
EXCESS OF
INVESTMENT
GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL.STATE AND LOCAL)
CASH
SURPLUS
60.0
SEE MIDYEAR ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JULY 1948, APPENDIX A.
SOURCE:
DEPARTMENT
OF COMMERCE AND BUREAU OF THE
BUDGET.
PRICES
CONSUMERS' PRICES
In October consumers1 prices showed a slight decline for the first time since March. The drop in
food prices was partially offset by a rise in other prices.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
225
200
200
175
150
125
125
100
100
1939
1940
1941
1943
1942
*.ALSO INCLUDES HOUSEFURNlSHINGS, FUEL, ELECTRICITY, ICE,
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
AND MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES, NOT SHOWN ON CHART.
[1935-39 = 100]
All items *
Period
Food
Clothing
Rent
99.4
100. 2
105. 2
116. 5
123. 6
125. 5
128. 4
139. 3
159. 2
95. 2
96. 6
105. 5
123. 9
138. 0
136. 1
139. 1
159. 6
193. 8
100. 5
101. 7
106. 3
124.2
129. 7
138. 8
145. 9
160. 2
185. 8
104. 3
104. 6
106. 2
108. 5
108.0
108. 2
108. 3
108. 6
111.2
1947: September
October
November
December
163. 8
163. 8
164. 9
167. 0
203. 5
201. 6
202. 7
206. 9
187. 6
189.0
190. 2
191.2
113.6
114.9
115. 2
115.4
1948: January
February _
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
168. 8
167. 5
166. 9
169. 3
170. 5
171. 7
173. 7
174. 5
174. 5
173. 6
209. 7
204. 7
202. 3
207. 9
210.9
214. 1
216. 8
216. 6
215.2
211. 5
192. 1
195. 1
196.3
196.4
197. 5
196.9
197. 1
199. 7
201.0
201.6
115.9
116. 0
116.3
116.3
116.7
117.0
117. 3
117. 7
118.5
118.7
1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average __
1947 monthly average
< >c|ol)(>r_
.
_
_.
„_
_ _
_ _ _ _ _
• includes housefurnishings, fuel, electricity, ice, and miscellaneous goods and services.
Prims are for moderate-income families in large cities.
•»: I'upartiiicnt of Labor.
WHOLESALE PRICES
Farm and food prices were fairly stable in November, after dropping substantially during the previous
months. Other than farm and food prices have shown little change since August.
PERCENT OF 1926 A V E R A G E
PERCENT OF 1926 AVERAGE
220
220
200
160
1940
1939
1941
1942
1946
1947
1948
1949
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
SEPT
OCT
COUNCIL
OF
[1926=100]
Period
1939
1940
1941
1942
1946
monthly average
monthly average
_
_
monthly average
monthly average
monthly average
June
1947 monthly average _
_
_ _
1948: January
February _ _
March
_
_ _
April
Mav
- _ _ _ _ _ _
June
July
_
_ _
August
_
_ _ _
September
October
_
___
Week ended: 1
Nov. 2 1
9 -_
16 ll
23
30 *___
_
_
Weekly average
_ _
iX
jr
All commodities
Farm products
Foods
Other than
farm and
foods
77. 1
78. 6
87. 3
98/8
121. 1
112. 9
152. 1
165. 7
160. 9
161.4
162. 8
163. 9
166. 2
168. 7
169. 5
168. 6
165.0
65. 3
67.7
82.4
105. 9
148. 9
140. 1
181.2
199. 2
185.3
186.0
186.7
189. 1
196. 0
195.2
191.0
189. 1
182.2
70.4
71.3
82. 7
99. 6
130. 7
112. 9
168. 7
179.9
172.4
173. 8
176. 7
177.4
181. 4
188. 3
189. 5
186. 3
177. 3
81.3
83.0
89.0
95. 5
109. 5
105. 6
135.2
148.3
147.6
147. 7
148.7
149. 1
149. 5
151. 1
153. 1
153.3
153. 1
164.2
164. 2
164. 3
164. 9
165. 1
164. 5
176. 5
176. 3
175. 2
177.6
179.4
177.0
175. 9
176. 1
177. 5
177. 1
177.0
176.7
153. 1
153. 2
153. 2
153. 5
153.4
153.3
1
The weekly index presented here is a revised index which permits direct comparison with the monthly
index. It is not comparable with the old weekly index which did not permit such a comparison.
Source: Department of Labor.
PRICES RECEIVED AMD PAID BY FARMERS
A 2 percent drop in prices received by formers in November, and a I percent drop in prices paid
reduced the parity ratio I percent.
PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE
350
PERCENT OF 1910-14 AVERAGE
350
MONTHLY AVERAGE
300
250
250
200
PRICES PAID
(INCL. INTEREST, TAXES)
150
100
PARITY RATIO
50
1939
40
41
42
43
44
45
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J ' A S O N D
1946
1947
1948
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF A G R I C U L T U R E .
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[1910-14=100]
Prices paid by
Prices
received l farmers (includ- Parity ratio a
ing interest
by farmers
and taxes)
Period
1939 monthly average _
1 940 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average _ _ _
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
95
100
124
159
192
195
202
233
278
124
125
132
150
162
170
174
194
231
77
80
94
106
119
115
116
120
120
1947: October
November
December
289
287
301
239
241
245
121
119
123
1948: January
February
_,
March
April
_ _
May
j
June
July
August
September. _
October
_ _ _ _
November
307
279
283
291
289
295
301
293
290
277
271
251
248
247
249
250
251
251
251
250
249
247
122
112
115
117
116
118
120
117
116
111
110
1
2
_ _ __
.
_
August 1909-July 1914=100.
Ratio of prices received to prices paid, interest, and taxes.
Source: Department of Agriculture,
STOCK PRICES
November stock prices dropped sharply from the October level and were near the level of January 1948PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
175
PERCENT OF 1 9 3 5 - 3 9 AVERAGE
MONTHLY AVERAGE
1939
40
41
42
43
44
J F
45
M
A M J
J
A S O N D . J F M A M J j A S O N D J F M A M J j A S O N D
1946
SOURCE :
STANDARD
1947
1948
AND P O O R S C O R P O R A T I O N ,
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[1935-39 = 100]
Combined
index 1
Period
1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average
1941 monthly average _
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1 947 monthly average
1947: October
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April _ __
May
June
July _ __
August
September
October
November
_
__
__ _ _ __
_
_ .
94. 2
88. 1
80.0
69. 4
91.9
99. 8
121. 5
139. 9
123.0
125. 1
123. 6
122.4
120. 1
114. 2
116.4
124. 6
130. 2
135. 1
131.9
127. 1
125. 7
127.8
120. 4
Industrials *
94.8
87. 9
80.4
71. 3
94. 1
101. 7
123.3
143.4
128.0
131. 1
130.3
129. 2
126.0
119. 2
121.8
130. 8
136.9
142. 7
138.9
133. 5
131. 7
134. 3
126. 4
Railroads *
74. 7
71. 1
70. 6
66. 1
88.7
101.0
136.9
143.0
105. 3
104.2
100. 1
103.9
106.5
101. 9
105.2
115.2
122.6
125. 6
124.7
119.7
120.4
120.9
108. 8
Utilities *
98. 6
95.8
81.0
61.3
82. 1
89.9
106. 1
120.2
102.9
101.0
97. 2
94.0
95. 1
92. 6
93.0
96.2
99.2
100. 6
99.5
97.3
97.3
97.4
94.2
1
Combined index prior to June 23, 1948, was based on 402 common stocks, and included 354 industrials,
20 railroads, and 28 utilities; thereafter, 416 common stocks are represented, with 365 industrials, 20 railroads,
and 31 utilities.
Source: Standard & Poor's Corp.
•S1I7S2—48
2
EMPLOYMENT
LABOR FORCE
Civilian employment in November was slightly below 60 million, A seasonal decline in agricultural employment was partly
offset by a seasonal increase in other employment, Unemployment, still under 2 million, was up a little,
75
25 -
J
1941
1944
1945
1946
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
1947
1946
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
Period
[Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over]
Civilians employed
Total labor
force, inIn noncluding
In agriagricultural
Total
armed
culture
industries
forces
Armed
forces
Unemployed
1941 monthly average
1944 monthly average...
1945 monthly average..-.
1946 monthly average...
1947 monthly average
57, 380
65, 890
65, 140
60, 820
61, 608
50, 350
53, 960
52, 820
55, 250
58, 027
41, 250
45, 010
44, 240
46, 930
49, 761
9, 100
8,950
8,580
8, 320
8,266
1,470
11, 260
11,280
3,300
1,440
5,560
670
1,040
2,270
2, 141
1947: September _
October
November
December
62, 130
62, 219
61, 510
60, 870
58, 872
59, 204
58, 595
57, 947
50, 145
50, 583
50, 609
50, 985
8,727
8, 622
7,985
6,962
1,346
1,327
1,294
1,280
1, 912
1, 687
1,621
1, 643
1948: January
February. _. ._
March
April
.
May
June
July
AugustSeptember
October 1
November
60, 455
61, 004
61, 005
61, 760
61, 660
64, 740
65, 135
64, 511
63, 578
63, 166
63, 138
57, 149
57, 139
57, 329
58, 330
58, 660
61, 296
61, 615
61, 245
60, 312
60, 134
59, 910
50, 089
50, 368
50, 482
50, 883
50, 800
51, 899
52, 452
52, 801
51, 590
51,506
51, 940
7,060
6,771
6,847
7,448
7,861
9,396
9, 163
8,444
8,723
8,627
7,971
1,241
1, 226
1,236
1,236
1,238
1,261
1,293
1,325
1,366
1,391
1,414
2,065
2,639
2,440
2, 193
1,761
2,184
2,227
1,941
1,899
1,642
1,814
D
1948
S O U R C E : DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
1
N
Data became available after chart was prepared.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
EMPLOYMENT IN BUSINESS AND GOVERNMENT
The fall pick-up in employment in retail trade was largely o f f s e t by declines in nondurable manufacturing groups.
Employment decreases in food processing were seasonal while decreases in the shoe, leather, and textile groups were
contraseasonal.
MILLIONS OF WAGE
AND S A L A R Y WORKERS
MILLIONS OF WAGE
AND SALARY WORKERS
12
12
/
/
DURABLE
MANUFACTURING
NONDURABLE
MANUFACTURING'
7
FINANCE AND SERVICED
\ I \~7
TRANSPORTATION AND
PUBLIC UTILITIES
• CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION-
V
^""^MINING'
I
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
/
I
I
I
I
I
I I
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
1947
SOURCE:
Department
1948
1949
of L o b o
[Thousands of wage and salary workers ]
Durable
manufacturing
Period
1939
1943
1946
1947
monthly
monthly
monthly
monthly
1948: January
February. _
March. _
April _
May _
June
_
July
August
September
October 2
....___
. .. ..
_
__
_
_ _
Trade
Transportation and
Finance and Government
(Federal,
public
service
State, local)
utilities
Contract
construction
Mining
4
10
7
8
average-average
average - ... _
average
1947: September-October
November
December
Nondurable
manufacturing
_ __ _
_
357
297
180
055
5, 720
7, 084
7,335
7,846
6,705
7, 322
8,820
9,450
4,610
5, 187
6,016
6,278
3,987
6, 049
5, 607
5, 450
2,912
3, 619
4,023
4,059
1, 150
1,567
1,661
1,921
845
917
852
911
8
8
8
8
070
126
194
274
8, 105
8, 083
8,062
8, 080
9,471
9, 684
9,886
10, 288
6,302
6, 333
6, 343
6, 364
5,
5,
5,
5,
403
414
387
638
4, 134
4,097
4,077
4,071
'2, 107
2,099
2, 046
1,978
921
922
923
925
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
256
167
258
164
114
122
165
187
292
314
8, Oil
8,016
8, Oil
7, 786
7, 778
7, 993
8, 007
8,256
8, 412
8 281
9, 622
9,520
9, 598
9, 576
9, 617
9, 670
9, 646
9,660
9, 733
9 902
6,403
6,420
6,426
6,472
6, 454
6, 389
6,399
6,383
6, 379
6, 413
5, 498
5,492
5, 546
5, 577
5, 624
5, 607
5, 604
5, 650
5, 801
5 789
4,020
4,019
4,032
3, 974
4, 042
4, 105
4, 136
4, 139
4,093
4,096
1,871
1,731
1,805
1,933
2,052
2, 173
2,219
2,253
2,240
2,217
922
914
924
817
935
950
922
952
948
949
1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in n on agricultural establishments who worked or received pay during the pay period ending
nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. Total derived from this
table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Departme at of Commerce (p. 6) which include
proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes; and
which are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
2
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Department of Labor.
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS
Weekly hours of work for manufacturing industries averaged 40 hours during October, a slight increase over
the September average, according to preliminary data.
HOURS PER WEEK
HOURS PER WEEK
ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
50
MONTHLY
AVERAGE
^
30 —
:-
:—
20 —
-
1 0
— : - . — : -
—
.. M , 1 . . . . .
1939 41
44
!,,,,,
,
i939 4|
45
44
45
PRIVATE BUILDiNG CONSTRUCTION
RETAIL TRADE
20
1939 4|
44
45
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
[Hours per week, selected industries]
All manufacturing
industries
Period
Bi luminous
eoaJ mining
Private
building
construction
1
Retail trade
37. 7
40. 6
45. 2
43. 4
40. 4
40. 3
27. 1
31. 1
43. 4
42. 3
41. 6
40. 7
32. 6
34. 8
39. 6
39. 0
38. 1
37. 8
43.0
42. 5
40. 3
40. 3
40. 5
40. 2
1947: September
October
November
December
40. 4
40. 6
40. 4
41. 2
39. 1
39. 9
38. 5
41.2
37. 9
38. 1
36. 6
37. 9
40.0
40.0
39. 5
39. 7
1948: January
February. _ _
_
__ _ _ _ _ _
March
April
May
_ __ _ _
June_
_
_
July
August
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
September 3 _
3
October
40 5
40. 2
40. 4
40. 1
39. 9
40. 2
39. 8
40. 1
39. 8
40 0
40. 9
38. 7
40. 6
2 27.0
40.3
39. 9
34. 2
39. 3
37. 7
37. 2
36. 7
37. 1
37. 0
37. 1
37. 9
37. 8
37. 8
37. 6
39. 8
40. 0
39. 8
39. 8
39. 9
40. 3
40. 8
41. 0
40. 2
1939
1941
1944
1945
1946
1947
monthly
monthly
monthly
monthly
monthly
monthly
1
1
1
average
average
average
average
average
average
_
('overs only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
HUHIM! on pay period during coal stoppage.
I *i Hi in i nary estimate.
H-m»n'»<: Department of Labor.
WORK STOPPAGES
Despite a number of major work stoppages in October, the number of man-days lost was less than in September
and substantially below levels for the spring.
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS IDLE
25
MILLIONS OF MAN-DAYS
20
15
PEAK MONTH
\
1939 40
41
42
43
44'
45
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O * N D
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
Man-days
idle
(thousands)
Period
1939: Monthly average. _ _ ~
April—peak month
1940: Monthly average
1941: Monthly average
April—peak month
1942; Monthly average
1943: Monthly average
June—peak month
1944: Monthly average
_ _
1 945 : Monthly average
October—peak month
1 946 : Monthly average __
.. _
February —peak month
1947: Monthly average
April—peak month
_
1948: March 1
April 1
*
May1 .
June1
July !
August _
September 1
October1
.
.
1
Preliminary estimate.
Man-days idle
as percent of
estimated available working
time
-
1,484
4, 902
0. 28
559
.. _ _._
. 10
. 32
1. 13
1,921
7, 113
349
_
_
_
_ _
_ _ _ _ _ _
__
_ _
_
Source- Department of Labor.
1, 125
4,699
. 727
3, 168
8, 610
9,672
22, 900
2,993
8,540
6,000
8,000
4, 100
2,000
2, 200
1, 750
2,400
2,000
.05
. 15
.62
.09
.47
1. 39
1.43
4. 19
.41
1. 19
.8
1. 1
.6
.3
.3
.2
.3
.3
IDLE
25
PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Industrial production increased somewhat in October as activity in durable goods industries reached a
new postwar peak. Preliminary data for November indicate that production was maintained at about
the October rate.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
Points in Total Index
250
250
200
200
:
150
100
50
A
S
0
A M
N
1946
1947
J
J A
S O N * D
1948
* PREL IMINAR Y ES TlMA TE
[1935-39 = 100, seasonally adjusted]
Points in total index,
1935-39 average for total =100
Indexes, 1935-39=100
Period
Manufactures
Total
industrial
production Total Durable Nonduragoods ble goods
1935-39 monthly average.
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average. '_.
1947: September
October _
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April
May _
June
July
August
September
_
October L_
November *
1
,o
Preliminary estimate.
100
239
203
170
187
186
191
192
192
193
194
191
188
192
192
186
191
192
195
194
100
258
214
177
194
192
197
199
198
201
201
200
195
197
198
191
197
199
202
200
100
360
274
192
220
216
223
224
230
229
226
229
217
221
222
219
222
224
230
228
100
176
166
165
172
172
176
179
173
178
180
177
177
178
179
169
176
178
179
177
Manufactures
Mining
100
132
137
134
149
153
155
155
156
154
155
142
147
162
159
153
159
156
159
160
Durable
goods
38
136
104
73
83
82
84
85
87
87
86
87
82
84
84
83
84
85
87
87
Nondurable goods
47
83
78
77
81
80
83
84
81
83
84
83
83
83
84
79
82
83
84
83
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Mining
15
20
21
21
23
23
24
24
24
23
24
22
22
25
24
23
24
24
24
24
,50
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED DURABLE
MANUFACTURES
Iron and steel production reached a new all-time high in October, about 3 percent above tho wartime peak
of October 1943. Production ot transportation equipment was up 5 percent after being curtailed by the
auto-suppliers' strike in September.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 A V E R A G E
PERCENT OF 1935-39 A V E R A G E
TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT
LUMBER AND PRODUCTS
400
200
50O
1935-39 1943 1945
3OO
800
1935-39 1943 1945
1948
1946
1935-39 1943 1945
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
COUNCIL OF
ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Transportation
equipment
Period
1935-39 monthly average
1943 monthly average.
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: September
October
November
December
_
_
_
1948i January ..
__
February
March
« _
_ __.
April
May .
_
June
July
. —_ _ _
August
September
October l
_ _ _
Lumber and
products
Iron and steel
100
734
487
232
230
_ ~
_
_
.
_ -_
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
100
130
110
130
144
100
208
183
150
195
227
232
234
244
140
143
150
153
195
204
202
205
244
232
240
237
218
223
235
231
226
237
155
150
151
145
142
140
142
149
143
145
203
203
207
177
207
207
200
207
213
222
1
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
11
PRODUCTION OF SELECTED NONDURABLE
MANUFACTURES
Textile production, after recovering part of its summer drop, decreased again in October. Petroleum output
increased about 9 percent, following settlement of the west coast strike. Food products and chemicals showed
no change.
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
PERCENT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
TEXTILES AND PRODUCTS
1935-39
43
PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS
1935-39
45
43
45
MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS
CHEMICAL PRODUCTS
I I I I I 1 I i11
1935-39
43
45
1935-39
43
45
SOURCE: B O A R D OF G O V E R N O R S OF THE FEDERAL R E S E R V E S Y S T E M .
[1935-39=100, seasonally adjusted]
Period
1935-39 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1
12
Manufactured food
products
Chemical
products
_ _
.
100
153
146
162
163
100
185
235
173
193
100
145
151
150
157
100
384
284
236
251
203
204
205
208
158
156
158
158
248
248
251
254
179
179
175
174
176
174
154
166
169
166
214
215
211
213
220
221
217
222
207
225
158
160
158
157
159
163
160
154
163
163
255
252
250
249
249
256
251
259
256
256
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Petroleum
and coal
products
160
164
172
163
_
1947: September
October
November. _ _
December
1948: January
February
March
April
May
June
July.
AugustSeptember
October 1 _
Textiles and
products
NEW CONSTRUCTION
The continued decline in the volume of construction activity in November was more than seasonal.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2,000
2,000'
MONTHLY AVERAGE
1,500
I,50O
^FEDERAL;;;;1
!: STATE, AND!
ijijlj LOCAL*:i;;;i;i
1,000
o
1,000
>sS>
\^x
\x\
N&
S>S
\^S
^8^S888I8 1
^K^^^JJfe>N^^
1946
1947
1948
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
,.«.,«-,,
.
0
ECONOMIC
ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars]
Private construction
Total new
construction
Period
1939 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
1947: October
November
December
1 948 : January
February. _
March
April _
__
_ _ _ _ _
May
June__
July
August _ _
September
October 2
November _
1
2
__ _
526
1, 118
345
401
871
1, 165
1,497
1,432
1,320
1, 157
1,009
1, 166
1,311
1,461
1,616
1,715
1,799
1,782
1,705
1,559
Total
private
Residential
(nonfarm)
317
251
152
226
688
908
1, 129
1, 141
1,097
948
837
940
1,024
1, 120
1,235
1,318
1,354
1,332
1,263
1, 176
176
110
45
57
265
438
590
630
610
500
400
475
525
585
635
680
695
685
650
600
Other
141
141
107
169
422
469
539
511
487
448
437
466
499
535
600
638
659
647
613
576
Federal,
State, and
local *
208
867
193
174
184
257
368
291
223
209
172
226
287
341
381
397
445
450
442
383
Includes public residential construction.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.
82782—48-
13
NEW HOUSING STARTS
Housing starts dropped sharply in October to 72,000, about 22,000 under the total for October of last
year, the peak month of 1947
THOUSANDS OF UNITS
iOO
THOUSANDS
OF UNITS
100
80
60
RURAL NONFARM
40
URBAN
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
1947
1946
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
1948
# NEW NONFARM FAMILY DWELLING UNITS.
SOURCE:
DEPARTMENT
OF
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
LABOR.
New nonfarm units (conventional and
prefabricated) l
Period
Total
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
_ _
May
1
2
_
___
41, 164
40, 125
23, 520
31, 000
73, 100
79, 400
81, 100
86, 800
93, 800
94, 000
79, 800
58, 800
1948: January.
February
March __ _
April
June2
July . 2
August
_
September 2
2
October
Rural nonfarm
64, 683
71, 125
__
1947: May
June
July
August
September
October _
November
December
Urban
39, 300
43, 000
44, 500
47, 400
50, 300
53, 200
48, 000
36, 300
33, 800
36, 400
36, 600
39, 400
43, 500
40, 800
31, 800
22, 500
52, 600
49, 600
75, 100
98, 800
99, 400
97, 500
94, 000
83,000
81, 000
72, 900
30, 400
28, 800
42, 000
54, 400
56, 700
54, 400
49, 700
22, 200
20, 800
33, 100
44, 400
42, 700
43, 100
44, 300
New nonfarm family dwelling units. Temporary units are excluded after 1947 when the program ended.
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Labor.
14
EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT
AND EQUIPMENT
Nonagricultural business expenditures on plant and equipment this year will probably be 15 percent more
than in 1947. Business plans for 4th quarter show a decline of about $1 billion (annual rate) from 3rd
quarter, with most of the decrease in expenditures for manufacturing construction.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
25
ANN UAL TOTALS
20
TRANSPORTATION AND
ELECTRIC AND GAS
^UTILITIES
1939
1941
* NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL
r-
10
1945
VARIATION.
SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE C O M M I S S I O N AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[Millions of dollars, annual rates, not adjusted for seasonal]
Transportati on
Total i
Period
Manufacturing
Electric and
gas utilities
Mining
Railroad
1939
1941
1945
1946
1947
1948 3
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter 4
Fourth quarter 4
-__
_
_
_
- -
.
_ __
_
Other
Commercial
and miscellaneous 2
5,200
8, 190
6,630
12, 040
16, 180
18, 630
1,930
3,400
3,210
5,910
7,460
8,030
380
680
440
560
690
770
280
560
550
570
910
1,320
280
340
320
660
800
680
480
710
630
1,040
1,900
2,540
1,850
2,490
1,480
3,300
4,430
5,280
12, 640
15, 760
16, 560
19, 760
5,800
7,400
7,480
9, 160
600
640
720
840
640
880
920
1,200
720
920
800
760
1,320
1,800
2,000
2,480
3,600
4, 120
4,640
5,360
16,
19,
19,
18,
7,200
8,560
8,640
7,760
720
800
800
720
1,080
1,200
1,440
1,520
720
760
680
600
2,000
2,560
2,760
2,800
4,960
5,360
5,440
5,320
680
240
800
760
1
Excludes agriculture.
2
Includes trade, service, finance, and communication.
3
Based on actual expenditures for first half and estimates
4
for second half.
Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures of business.
NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to
current expense. Figures for 1939-44 are Federal Reserve Board estimates based on Securities and Exchange Commission and other
data.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because annual rates are based on quarterly figures rounded to the nearest 10,000,000.
Sources: Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce (except as noted).
15
NEW CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES
New
rate
BILLIONS
issues in 3rd quarter of 1948 were below those of the previous
as a year ago. Three-fifths of the proceeds were earmarked for
quarter but at the same
plant and equipment.
OF D O L L A R S
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
3 .0
3.0
QUARTERLY A V E R A G E
2.5
2.0
2.0
1939
1943
1
1945
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
SOURCE: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION.
COUNCIL OF E C O N O M I C A D V I S E R S
[Millions of dollars]
Proposed uses of net proceeds
Estimated
net proceeds
Period
New money
Total
1939
1943
1945
1946
1947
quarterly average
quarterly average
quarterly average
quarterly average
quarterly average
_
_
_
-
1947* First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948" First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
1
_-
--
-
-
-
_
-
_ _
_ _
_
-
_ _
-
16
Working
capital
529
287
1,476
1,689
1, 528
81
77
270
820
1,068
43
35
159
529
806
39
42
111
291
261
448
210
1,206
869
460
1,018
1,605
1,266
2,221
673
932
797
1,867
396
636
649
1,542
278
296
148
325
344
672
469
354
1,614
1,663
1,266
1,400
1,353
1,046
845
1,080
765
555
274
280
214
309
221
Includes small amount for other purposes.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.
Plant and
equipment
Retirement
of debt and
stock 1
INVENTORIES AND SALES
Detail sales through October failed to show the usual fall seasonal rise.
BILL ONS OF DOLLARS
B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS
WHOLESALE
MANUFACTURING
30
30
NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEAS DNAL VARIATION
NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL V A R I A T I O N
•,#*•*
INVENTORIES*
X^^
20
>»~»jrj*-~+**r
20
y^ ^s
SALES*
1 0
1 0
SALES -s,
INVENTORIES
0
j
|
1
| 1 [
[
|
1 1 i l l 1 l i i i i
l
i i i l i 1i i i i j
1947
| [
1948
1946
1 1 1 1 1
0
j 1 1 I i
i l l I l 1 l l 1l I
1946
DEPARTMENT STORES
RETAIL
40O
30
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SALES**
300
20
/ *>•*"*""""
/
*&«S~^*^
INVENTORIES^
^
200
~-~*Z^*
x
>— **
——s
v
~'
'
^_
/
0
J
_L J 1 1 I
1948
PERCE NT OF 1935-39 AVERAGE
BILL IONS OF DOLLARS
1 0
J_J J J
1947
INVENTORIES**
XLES*
, 1 ,1 , 1 1 ,1 ,1
l j j l l 1 l l i i i
1946
i i l i i 1I i l iJ
1947
1
00
1 j
1 I
1948
1
1 J L 1 1
1 i i 1I 1 ] j j i 1
1946
1947
1 i
1
1
1
1 1 1
1
1 1
1948
END OF MONTH
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.
Manufacturing l
Period
Inventories
3
Sales
Retail 2
Wholesale l
4
Inventories *
Sales
4
Inventories *
Department stores
Sales *
1
2
. . _ _ _ _
_
_
_
_
_ _
__
-
--- --
18, 773
19, 468
21, 500
23, 432
26, 846
27, 051
27, 055
27, 397
27, 627
28, 020
28, 501
28, 768
29, 064
29, 161
29, 437
29, 726
30, 218
30, 434
30, 500
4,309
4,337
5, 172
5,823
6,699
7,068
7,233
7,342
7,467
7,545
7,850
7,885
7,869
7,777
7,801
7,984
8,044
8, 112
8,245
5, 338
5,575
6,321
7, 118
7,096
7,072
7,763
8,716
8,013
8,262
7,692
7, 121
7,726
7,652
7,389
7,766
7,796
8, 161
8,288
8,023
8,917
9,995
11, 049
11,925
11,944
12, 073
12, 435
12, 621
12, 953
13, 384
13, 751
14, 040
13, 907
13, 951
14, 065
14, 080
14, 130
14, 484
7,796
8, 164
8,876
9, 258
9,822
9,786
10, 264
10, 292
1.0, 426
10, 620
10, 464
10,463
10, 658
10, 891
10, 620
10, 862
10, 857
10, 893
10, 971
10, 900
177
210
226
274
231
228
232
252
273
285
289
306
313
309
297
284
273
268
276
255
275
272
276
287
284
294
279
302
303
286
286
285
306
310
312
316
311
312
307
5
Indexes computed from data on retail value of sales for
month and retail book value of inventories, end of month.
6
Preliminary estimate.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Not adjusted for seasonal variation.
Adjusted for seasonal variation.
3
4
10, 712
11, 132
13, 055
14, 634
14, 361
15, 257
16, 597
18, 082
16, 554
17, 523
16, 552
16, 225
18, 117
17, 229
16, 777
17, 871
16, 387
18, 100
18, 700
Sales
1935-39 = 100, seasonally
adjusted 6
Millions of dollars
1946: March _ _
June
September
December
1947- July
August
September
October
November
December
1948* January
February
March
April
Mav
J.V-LOJ
June
July
August 6 6
September
October 6
Inventories
Book value, end of month.
Total for month.
17
EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
Exports in October recovered to the July level while imports also rose, though by a smaller amount,
MILLIONS
OF
DOLLARS
MILLIONS
OF
DOLLARS
1,600
1,600
MONTHLY AVERAGES
1,400
—
1,400
1,200
1,200
1,000
— 1,000
800
800
—
600
600
400
400
200
- 200
W,
1943
1936-38
1945
* RECORDED MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, INCLUDING REEXPORTS, AND CIVILIAN SUPPLIES FOR OCCUPIED AREAS
** RECORDED GENERAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY, AND DEPARTMENT OF THE
NAVY
OF
ECONOMIC A D V I S E R S
[Millions of dollars]
Period
Exports l
Imports *
Excess of
exports
1936-38 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average
247
1,080
877
849
1, 278
207
282
346
410
478
40
798
531
439
801
1947: July
August.
September
October
November
December
1, 265
1,265
1, 185
1,304
1, 189
1, 172
450
400
473
492
455
603
815
865
712
812
734
569
1948: January
February
March..
April
May
June
July
August
September
October 3
1, 092
1,086
1, 138
1, 120
1, 103
1,013
1,020
986
926
1,021
545
582
666
528
550
616
558
598
558
597
546
504
473
592
553
398
461
387
368
424
1
1
_.
._
Recorded merchandise exports, including reexports, and civilian supplies for occupied areas.
Recorded general merchandise imports.
* Data became available after chart was prepared.
Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of the Army, and Department of the Navy.
18
PURCHASING POWER
NATIONAL INCOME
Compensation of employees rose $6.4 billion (annual rate), and farm income (part of proprietors' and
rental income on chart) dropped $1 billion during the 3rd quarter, according to revised estimates.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
ANNUAL TOTALS
;;• CORPORATE PROFITS AND vX-X-X-X-XX INVENTORY VALUATION
ADJUSTMENT.
1939
!944
1945
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
COUNCIL
O F ECONOMIC
ADVISERS
[BillioDs of dollars]
Period
1939
1944
1945
1946
1947
_
---
.
Total
National
Income
72.5
182.4
181.7
179.3
202.5
Compensation of
employees
Proprietors'
and rental
income
47.8
121. 1
122.9
117.3
127.5
14.7
34. 1
36.0
41.8
46.0
Corporate profits and invenNet interest tory valuation
adjustment
4.2
3. 1
3.0
3.4
4.3
5.8
24.0
19.8
16.8
24.7
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1 947 : Firsif quarter
Second quarter _ _
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
197.3
199.3
200.6
212.8
125.0
125. 3
127.6
132.2
46.4
44.6
44. 4
48.6
4.1
4.2
4.4
4.5
21.8
25.2
24.3
27.5
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
215. 1
221.7
226. 7
133. 7
134.2
140. 6
50.6
51.8
50.2
4.6
4.7
4.8
26.2
30.9
31. 1
MOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment for
third quarter, 1948).
19
CORPORATE PROFITS
Corporate profits so far this year are running above the !947 levels.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4O
40
ANNUAL TOTALS
1929
1939
1943
** Preliminary estimate.
SOURCE:
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, (e
[Billions of dollars]
Corporate profits after taxes
Corporate
profits
before taxes
Period
1929
1939
1943
1946
1947
9.8
6.5
24. 5
21. 8
29.8
_
Corporate
tax
liability
1.4
L5
14.2
9.0
11.7
Total
8.4
5.0
10. 4
12.8
18.1
Dividend
payments
5.8
3.8
4.5
5.6
6.9
Undistributed
profits
2.6
1.2
5.9
7.2
11.2
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter _
Third quarter
Fourth quarter..
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter l
._
28.9
28.8
29. 1
32. 4
11.4
11.3
11.4
12.7
17.5
17.5
17.7
19.7
6.4
6.7
6.9
7. 1
11. 1
10.8
10. 8
12.6
31.4
33.4
35. 0
12.2
13. 0
13.6
19.2
20.4
21. 4
7.3
7.3
7.7
11.9
13. 1
13.7
1
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—No allowance has been made for inventory valuation adjustment.
taxes and inventory valuation adjustment.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of .Commerce (except '1948,,.third quarter).
20
See p. 19 for profits before
PERSONAL INCOME
Higher personal income in October reflects a greater v o l u m e of marketing of farm products and longer working hours
per week in durable goods industries.
BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S
BILLIONS OF D O L L A R S
250
250
I 00
(939
1944
J F M A M J
1945
J A S O N D J
F M A M J
J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S
O N D
TERMINAL LEAVE BO^C' CASHING STARTED IN SEPTEMBER,
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
[Billions of dollars]
Total
personal
income
Period
1939
1944
1945
1946
1947
Salaries, wages, Proprietors'
and other
and rental
labor income
income
72. 6
164. 5
170. 3
178. 1
195. 2
-__ _
_ _ __
45.7
116. 1
136. 8
111. 4
121. 9
14. 7
34. I
36. 0
41. 8
46.0
security
Dividends SocialGI payand interest andments
9. 2
10.6
11. 4
13. 5
15. 6
3.0
3. 6
6.2
11. 4
11.7
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: September
October
November
December
_
1948: January__
February
March
April
May__
June_
July
August September. _ _
October 1 __ _ _ _
206
200.
201.
207.
._
___
__
2
0
4
7
123.8
124. 6
127. 4
129. 3
45. 0
47. 5
47. I
51. 3
16. 2
15. 9
16. 1
16.2
21.2
12.0
10.8
10.9
209. 4
206. 8
205. 6
207.4
207.2
212.3
212. 9
214. 6
214.9
215. 6
129. 4
128. 9
127. 6
127. 0
128. 8
131. 7
133. 9
136. 4
136.8
137. 0
52. 4
50. 0
49. 3
51.9
50. 7
52. 8
51. 0
50. 0
-19. 8
50. 7
16. 5
16. 6
16. 6
16.7
16. 8
16.8
17.0
17.3
17. 6
17. 7
11. 1
11.3
12. 1
11.8
10.9
11.0
11.0
10. 9
10.6
10. 2
1
Preliminary estimate. Data became available after chart was prepared.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
21
CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING
Consumer income in the 3rd quarter increased more than expenditures. The proportion of income saved
appears to be substantially above a year ago.
B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
1939
SOURCE:
1940
1941
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
[Billions of dollars]
Disposable
personal
income l
Period
70.2
75. 7
92.0
116. 2
131. 6
145.6
149. 4
159.2
173.6
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
Less: Personal
consumption
expenditures
Equals: Personal saving
67. 5
72. 1
82.3
90.8
101. 6
111. 4
122.8
147.4
164.8
2. 7
3. 7
9.8
25.4
30.0
34.2
26. 6
11.8
8.8
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
_
1947: First quarter. _
Second quarter
Third quarter _ _ _ _ _
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter .
Second quarter
Third quarter
1
_
169.7
168.2
175. 0
180.9
_ „
»
_
158. 1
164. 2
165.6
171. 1
11.6
4. 1
9.4
9.7
184 1
188. 2
193.7
172. 1
176.5
178.5
12.0
11.7
15.2
Income less taxes.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
22
PER CAPITA INCOME
Real purchasing power per capita for the 3rd quarter changed little from the average for the
first half of 1948.
DOLLARS
DOLLARS
1,600
1,600
SEASONALLY
ADJUSTED ANNUAL
RATES
1947 DOLLARS**
800
CURRENT DOLLARS
400
J
1939
1940
1942
1941
1943
1944
1945
I
2
3
2
1946
3
1947
I
2
3
1948
*#" CURRENT DOLLARS DlVintO BY THE CONSUMERS' PRICE INDEX ON THE BASE 1947 =
SOURCES:
D E P A R T M E N T OF
COMMERCE
AND DEPARTMENT OF
C O U N C I L OF
LABOR
Per capita disposable personal
income 1
Period
1939 ...
1940_
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
Current
dollars
.
_
.
_
1947 dollars *
$536
574
691
863
964
1, 054
1, 070
1, 127
1,205
$859
913
1,045
1, 179
1,242
1,338
1,326
1,288
1,205
Annual rates, seasonally
adjusted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter.
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
.. _ _
_.
Consumers1
price index,
1947=100
62.4
62.9
66. 1
73.2
77.6
78.8
80.7
87.5
100.0
Not adjusted
for seasonal
variation
$1, 186
1, 170
1,212
1,246
$1, 224
1, 191
1,200
1,200
96. 9
98.2
101.0
103.8
1,263
1,286
1,318
1, 199
1,201
1,205
105.3
107. 1
109.4
1
3
Income less taxes.
Current dollars divided by the consumers1 price index on the base 1947=100.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.
23
AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS
/\verage
hourly earnings continued to creep up in most industries in September. Preliminary October data
indicate little change in manufacturing earnings.
DOLLA RS PER HOUR
D O L L A R S PER HOUR
MANUFACTURING
RETAIL TRADE
1.50
1.50
•—
1947 DOLLARS*
—-
N._*^
1947 DOLLARS*
„
..-——
1.00
1.00
N
CUR RENT DOLLARS
CDF RENT DOLLARS
.50
.50
i i l i i 1i i i i i
i i i i i 1i i i i i
0
1946
1947
0
i i i i i I i | i i i
1948
1948
2.00
DOLLARS* _r-t-*+**'f^ -i- —r-'
1947
.
1947 DOLLARS*
—* — '"~
r..A--,C
^/^W
+-
,
/
^-~
^^^^^\
1.50
CUF RENT DOLLARS
^
RENT DOLLARS
1.00
1.00
.50
.50
0
1947
PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
2.00
1.50
i I i i i 1 i i i i i
i i i i i 1 i i i I i
1946
I
1 1 1
1 1
1
1
1 1 I
i i i i i 1 i i i i i
1946
SOURCE:
1947
0
i i i i i I i i i i i
i i i i i
1946
1948
i i i i i 1i i i i i
1 1 1 : 1
1947
1948
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISEHS
DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.
[Selected industries]
Manufacturing
Period
1939 monthly average-. ...
__
1941 monthly average
_ _
1944 monthlv average
1945 monthly average. _ _
_ _ _
1946 monthlv average
1947 monthly average.. __ ...
1947: August _
_
September
October _
...
November
December
_
1948: Januarv
_
February
March. __
April
May
_
_
June
July
_August
September 4
October 4
1
2
Current
dollars
$0. 633
.729
1.019
1.023
1. 084
1.221
1.236
1. 249
1.258
1. 268
1.278
1.285
1.287
1.289
1. 292
1.301
1. 316
1. 332
1.349
1.362
L 366
1947
dollars 2
$1. 014
1. 103
1. 293
1.268
1. 239
1.221
1.227
1.214
1.223
1.224
1.218
1.212
1. 223
1.230
1.215
]. 215
1.220
1. 221
1.231
1. 243
1. 253
Retail trade
Current
dollars
$0. 536
.568
.724
.773
.878
.991
1.003
1. 012
1. 013
1.025
1.016
1.044
1.050
1. 044
1.055
1.064
1. 070
1.077
1.080
1.086
Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1947=100.
Source: Department of Labor.
24
1947
dollars 2
$0 859
859
919
958
1 003
991
996
983
984
989
969
985
998
996
992
993
992
987
985
991
Bituminous coal mining
Current
dollars
$0. 886
.993
1. 186
1.240
1.401
1.644
1.787
1.819
1.798
1. 851
1.826
1.847
1. 826
1.842
* 1. 821
1.841
1.850
1.936
1.971
1.976
8
1947
dollars *
$1. 420
1.502
1.505
1.537
1. 601
1.644
1.775
1.768
1.747
1.787
1.741
1.742
1.736
1.758
3
1.713
1.719
1.715
1.775
1.798
1.803
Private building construction 1
Current
dollars
$0. 932
1. 010
1.319
1.379
1.478
1. 676
1. 694
1. 723
1. 743
1.765
1.774
1.781
1. 806
1.805
1.818
1. 835
1. 858
1. 890
1. 901
1.917
1947
dollars 2
$1. 494
1.528
1. 674
1.709
1. 689
1. 676
1. 682
1. 674
1. 694
1.704
1. 691
1. 680
1.717
1. 722
1. 710
1. 713
1. 722
1. 732
1.734
1.749
Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
* Preliminary estimate.
AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS
The shorter work week in September affected average weekly earnings. Preliminary October data show a
considerable increase in manufacturing earnings.
DOLLARS PER WEEK
DOLLARS PER WEEK
MANUFACTURING
RETAIL TRADE
CURRENT DOLLARS,
CURRENT DOLLARS
1947 DOLLARS
1947 DOLLARS
1947
1946
1948
1946
BITUMINOUS COAL MINING
1948
1947
PRIVATE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION
CURRENT DOLLARS
CURRENT DOLLARS
1947 DOLLARS
1947 DOLLARS *
40
1 I 1 1 ! I I 1 1 1
1947
1946
*
1948
1946
EARNINGS DATA DISTORTED DURING THESE MOUTHS BECAUSE OF WORK STOPPAGES
SOURCE:
DEPARTMENT
OR VACATIONS.
OF LABOR.
1947
!948
RENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY CONSUMER S PRICE INDEX ON BASE OF 1947 = IOO
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Selected industries]
Manufacturing
Period
1939 monthly average..
1941 monthly average..
1944 monthly average
1945 monthly average..
1946 monthly average
1947 monthly average ._
1947: August
September
October . _ _
November
December _
1948: January _ _ _ _
February
March
_ _
April _._
May
June
_
July
. .
August- 4
September
October 4
1
2
Current
dollars
$23. 86
29. 58
46. 08
44. 39
43.74
49.25
49. 17
50.47
51.05
51.29
52. 69
52.07
51.75
52.07
51. 79
51.86
52. 85
52. 95
54.07
54. 18
54. 64
1947 dollars 2
$38. 24
44.75
58.48
55.01
49.99
49.25
48.83
49.05
49.61
49.51
50.23
49. 12
49. 19
49. 69
48. 72
48.42
48.98
48. 53
49.33
49. 43
50. 12
Bituminous coal mining
Retail trade
Current
dollars
$21. 17
21. 94
26. 58
28. 31
32. 55
36. 67
38. 14
37. 06
36. 74
37. 14
37. 51
37. 62
38. 33
38.89
39. 27
39. 84
40. 52
41. 19
41. 19
40. 48
1947 dollars *
$33. 93
33. 19
33.73
35.08
37. 20
36. 67
37.87
36.02
35.70
35.85
35. 76
35.49
36. 44
37. 11
36. 94
37.20
37. 55
37. 75
37. 58
36. 93
Covers only employees at the site of privately financed building projects.
Current dollars divided by consumers' price index on the base 1947 = 100.
Source: Department of Labor.
Current
dollars
1947 dollars2
$23. 88
30. 86
51.27
52.25
58.03
66.86
70.23
71. 19
71. 91
71.77
75.22
75.78
70.54
74.84
3
49. 53
74.08
73.87
67. 62
77. 87
74.98
1
4
$38. 27
46. 69
65.06
64.75
66.32
66.86
69.74
69. 18
69.88
69. 28
71.71
71.49
67. 05
71.41
3
46. 59
69. 17
68. 46
61. 98
71.05
68.41
Private building construction *
Current
dollars
$30. 39
35. 14
52. 18
53.73
56.24
63.30
64.71
65.36
66.36
64.55
67.31
66. 28
66.31
66.89
67.31
68. 13
70.49
71. 38
71.89
72.09
1947 dollars a
$48. 70
53. 16
66.22
66. 58
64.27
63 30
64.26
63.52
64.49
62. 31
64. 17
62. 53
63.03
63. 83
63. 32
63. 61
65.33
65. 43
65. 59
65. 77
Based on pay period during coal stoppage.
Preliminary estimate
25
FARM INCOME
Although farm income increased in October, reflecting seasonal movement of crops to market, it was
considerably below a year ago because of lower prices.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4
1939
40
* CASH RECEIPTS
** FARM INCOME
SOURCE:
41
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
4
42
FROM MARKETING AND GOVERNMENT PAYMENTS.
IN CURRENT DOLLARS DIVIDED BY THE INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, AND TAXES ON THE BASE 1939= IOO.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
DEPARTMENT OF A G R I C U L T U R E .
Farm income
(millions of
current
dollars) »
723
761
981
Period
1939 monthly average
1940 monthly average
1941 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1943 monthly average
1944 monthly average
_ _
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average_
1947 monthly average
1947: September
October
_. November
.
December
. _ . _ _ * _ „..
1948: January
_.
February
March
_
April
.
May
June
July
_
_ _ __
August—
September
October 4
1
2
8
4
_
. __
.
_ _ _ _
Prices paid by
farmers (incl.
interest and
taxes) 1939 =
100 2
100 0
100 8
106 5
121 0
130 6
136 3
138 7
155 6
186 3
191. 9
192 7
194 4
197 6
202 4
200 0
199 2
200. 8
201 6
202 4
202 4
202. 4
201. 6
200.8
1 340
1, 678
1 753
1 857
2 136
2 542
3, 113
3 818
3, 276
2 843
2 571
1 862
1 932
2, 075
2 119
2 437
2 693
2, 722
3, 132
3. 550
Farm income
(millions of
1939 dollars) 3
Includes cash farm income from marketings and Government payments.
Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1939=100.
Farm income in current dollars divided by prices paid by farmers, interest, and taxes, 1939= 100.
Preliminary.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
26
723
755
921
1 107
1 285
1 286
1 339
1 373
1 364
1 625
1 981
1 685
1 439
1 270
' 931
970
1 033
1 051
1 204
1 331
1, 345
1 554
1.768
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Personal consumption expenditures increased $2 billion (annual rate) in the 3rd quarter, according to
revised estimates. The increase resulted trom more expenditures for durable goods and services.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
200
200
ANNUAL RATES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
ANNUAL TOTALS
150
50
1944
1939
1945
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.
C O U N C I L O F ECONOMIC
ADVISERS
[Billions of dollars]
Personal consumption expenditures
Period
Nondurable
goods
Total
1939
1944
1945.
1946
1947.
67. 5
111.4
122.8
147.4
164. 8
35.3
67.5
75.4
87.5
96. 5
Durable
goods
6. 7
6.9
8.3
16.2
21.0
Services
25.5
37.0
39.2
43.6
47.3
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
_ _
>
_ __
_ _ __
158.1
164.2
165. 6
171.1
92.5
96.3
96.8
100.2
19.6
21.1
21. 1
22. 1
46.0
46.7
47.7
48.8
172. 1
176.5
178.5
101. 2
103.2
102.9
21.2
22. 6
23.6
49.7
50.6
51.9
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.
27
The increase in consumer credit from the end of September to the end of October was attributable
to the seasonal increase in charge accounts.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
16
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
16
1.4
12
10
- 6
-2
1929
1939
1941
M J
1943
J A S 0 N D J F
A M J
1946
END OF YEAR
J A S O N D J
F M A
M J J A S 0 N D
1948
1947
END OF MONTH
^SINGLE PAYMENT LOANS AND SERVICE CREDIT
Council of Economic
[Billions of dollars]
Total
consumer
credit
outstanding
End of period
1929
1939
1941
1943
1945
1946
1947
1947- September
October
November
December
1948: January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October 3
1
_
_
_ _
-
_ _ _ _ _
_ __
_ _ _
__
Instalment
credit l
7. 6
8. 0
9.9
5. 3
6.6
10. 1
13.4
11. 7
12. 1
12.7
13. 4
13. 1
13.0
13. 5
13. 7
14. 0
14. 3
14. 3
14. 5
14. 8
15. 0
3.2
4. 4
5.9
1.9
2.3
3.9
6.2
5.3
5.5
5.8
6.2
6.2
6. 3
6. 5
6. 7
7.0
7. 1
7. 3
7.5
7.7
7.7
Charge
accounts
1. 7
1. 5
1.8
1. 5
2.0
3. 1
3.6
2. 9
3.0
3. 3
3. 6
3.2
3. 1
3.3
3. 3
3.3
3. 4
3.2
3. 1
3. 2
3. 5
Other
consumer
credit 2
2.7
2.0
2.2
1.9
2.3
3. 1
3.6
3.5
3.6
3. 6
3.6
3.6
3. 6
3. 7
3.7
3.7
3. 8
3. 8
3.8
3. 8
3.8
Includes automobile and other sale credit and repair and modernization loans insured by Federal Housng Administration.
2
Includes single-payment loans of commercial banks and pawnbrokers and service credit.
3
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Preserve System.
28
Adviser;
MONEY, BANKING, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS
Since the middle of the year bonk loans have been rising at a significantly lower rate than last year.
In October there was even a slight decline below the September level.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
125
125
100
100
75
50
25
25
1929
1939
1945
1949
SS48
END OF MONTH
END OF YEAR
" PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
C o u n c i l of E c o n o m i c A d v i
[Billions of dollars]
1929 _
1939
1945 _ _
1946
1947- _
_
_
1947: September _ _ _ _ _
October
November.
__
December
1948: January-February
March
April
May
_ _ _ _ __
_ . _ _
_
_
Total
Other
securities
8. 7
7. 1
7. 3
8. 1
__
36. 0
17. 2
26. 1
31. 1
38. 1
13. 5
23. 4
97. 9
82. 9
78.3
16. 3
90. 6
74.8
69. 3
9.0
115. 2
116. 3
116.6
116. 3
35. 5
36. 8
37. 6
38. 1
79. 7
79. 5
79. 0
78. 2
70.8
70. 5
70. 1
69. 2
8.9
9.0
8.9
9.0
116. 6
115. 5
113. 6
114. 3
114 5
113. 9
1.14. 8
115. 1
113. 6
114.2
38.2
38. 7
38. 9
38. 8
39. 4
39. 9
40. 1
40. 6
41.7
41. 6
78. 4
76. 9
74. 7
75. 5
75. 1
74.0
74. 6
74. 5
71. 9
72. 5
69.4
67. 9
65. 5
66. 3
65.9
64. 8
65. 3
65. 1
62. 5
63.3
June
_
July
August
September
_
_ _
October l
1
Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Ileserve System.
U. S.
Government
securities
49. 5
40. 7
124. 0
114. 0
116. 4
_ _
_
Investments
Total
loans and
investments
lidid of period
4.8
9.0
9. 0
9.3
9. 2
9.2
9. 2
9.3
9.4
9.4
9. 2
29
MONEY SUPPLY
In October the volume of demand deposits and outstanding currency continued below the
level of a year before.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
150
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
150
125 -
1
1929
1939 1941 1943
END OF Y E A R
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N O J F M A M J J A S 0*N D
1945
1946
1947
1948
* PRELIMINARY ESTlMATi
END OF MONTH
[Billions of dollars]
Total money
supply
End of period
1929
1939
1941_
1943
1945_
1946
1947_
1947: September
October
November
December.
1948: January
February
March
April
May
June ,
July
.
August
September
October 3 ___
1
„
.
_
_.__„
_ „_
.._
„
„
_ _ _
.
,
._ _
,
. _-.
,~_
_
__„_
26. 5
37. 0
50. 5
90, 1
126. 9
113. 1
115. 1
112. 3
113. 4
114.3
115. 1
113. 7
112. 1
109. 5
110. 6
110. 6
110. 5
111. 3
111.8
112. 4
113. 1
Currency
outside
banks
3.6
6. 4
9. 6
18. 8
26. 5
26. 7
26. 5
26.3
26. 2
26.5
26.5
25. 8
25. 7
25.6
25.4
25.4
25.6
25. 5
25.6
25.7
25. 7
Adjusted
demand
deposits l
22. 8
29. 8
39.0
60. 8
75.9
83. 3
87. 1
84. 1
85. 4
85.9
87. 1
86,6
84. 6
81. 5
82.7
82.8
82.7
83.4
83.8
83.9
85.0
U. S.
Government
deposits a
0. 2
,8
1. 9
10. 4
24. 6
3. 1
1. 5
1. 9
1. 8
1, 9
1. 5
1. 3
1. 8
2.4
2.5
2. 4
2.2
2. 4
2.4
2. 8
2.3
Includes demand deposits, other than interbank and U. S. Government, less cash items in process of collection.
2
Beginning December 1938, includes U. S. Treasurer's time deposits, open account.
* Preliminary estimate.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
30
FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND
PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC
The $1.3 billion excess of Federal cash receipts over cash payments for the 3rd
quarter of the calendar year 1948 was just above the End quarter e x c e s s .
B I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S
20
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
20
QUARTERLY TOTALS, NOT ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL
2
2
3
J946
3
1948
1947
SOURCE: TREASURY. DEPARTMENT
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
[Millions of dollars]
Federal cash
receipts from
the public
Calendar year by quarters
1946: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter _
Fourth quarter
_
153
089
375
868
13, 648
13 590
9, 104
8,907
+ 505
2 501
+ 1 271
+ 961
14
ll'
10
10
1947: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . „
1
Excess of receipts (-f ) or
payments (— )
14
11
10
9,
_ „
1948: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter *
Federal cash
payments to
the public
962
429
494
022
9, 772
12, 197
10, 527
8,677
+ 5 190
— 768
— 33
+ 1, 345
9,346
10, 176
9, 045
+ 6, 412
+ 1,232
+ 1, 299
15 758
11, 408
10, 344
Preliminary estimate.
Source: Treasury Department.
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Price 15 cents
31
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