View original document

The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.

83d Congress, 2d Session

Economic Indicators
AUGUST 1954

Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report




by the Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES
G O V E R N M E N T PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1954

JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan, Chairman
RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont, Vice Chairman
RICHARD M. SIMPSON (Pennsylvania)
HENRY O. TALLE (Iowa)
GEORGE H. BENDER (Ohio)
EDWARD J. HART (New Jersey)
WRIGHT PATMAN (Texas)
RICHARD BOLLING (Missouri)

ARTHUR V. WATKINS (Utah)
BARRY GOLDWATER (Arizona)
FRANK CARLSON, (Kansas)
JOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama)
PAUL H. DOUGLAS (Illinois)
J. WILLIAM FULBRIGHT (Arkansas)

GROVER W. ENSLEY, Staff Director
JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
ARTHUR F. BURNS, Chairman

NEIL H. JACOBY
WALTER W. STEWART

[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [S. L Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives oj the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint
Committee on the Economic Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators,"
and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the
Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two
copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint
Committee on the Economic Report; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for
distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed
for sale to the public.
Approved June 23. 1949.




Charts drawn by Graphics Unit, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce

Contents
THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY

Page

The Nation's Economic Accounts
Gross National Product

1
2

PRICES
Consumer Prices
Wholesale Prices
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers
Stock Prices

3
4
5
6

EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
Labor Force
Nonagricultural Employment—Selected Industries
Average Weekly Hours—Selected Industries
Average Hourly Earnings—Selected Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries

PRODUCTION

7
8
9
10
11

ACTIVITY

Industrial Production
Weekly Production—Selected Indicators
Production of Selected Manufactures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment
New Construction
New Housing Starts
Inventories and Sales
Merchandise Exports and Imports

12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

PURCHASING POWER
National Income
Corporate Profits
Personal Income
Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving
Per Capita Disposable Income
Farm Income

21
22
23
24
25
26

CREDIT, MONEY, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
Bank Loans and Investments
Consumer Credit
Bond Yields and Interest Rates
Money Supply
Federal Buaget Receipts and Expenditures
Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public




«

27
28
29
30
31
32
ui

THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY
THE NATION'S ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS
Economic activity as measured by over-all expenditures and incomes showed very little change during the second
quarter ol 1954, according to current estimates.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

ANNUAL TOTALS

CONSUMERS
300

250 . .

,

_ SAVING

*—'

200

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

BUSINESS
100

INVESTMENT-

EXCESS OF GROSS
"RETAINED EARNINGS
GROSS RETAINED
EARNINGS!/

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

GOVERNMENT-FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL

EXCESS OF RECEIPTS

RECEIPTS
(LESS TRANSFER PAYMENTS)

I
1942

I

1944

I !
1946

I
1948

I I
I960

I I
1952

I
1954

I

1951

I95E

1953

2, I

1954

lJ NET FOREIGN !NVESTM£NT AND GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT.
I/ INCLUDES UNDISTRIBUTED CORPORATE PROFITS AND CORPORATE INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT, AND CAPITAL CONSUMPTION ALLOWANCES.
I/ PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES.
NOTE: THE SUM OF THE THREE INCOME AND RECEIPT ITEMS SHOWN IN THIS CHART IS NOT EQUAL TO THE SUM OF THE EXPENDITURES, OR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT,
BECAUSE OF STATISTICAL DISCREPANCIES. FOR EXPLANATION AND USE OF THIS ARRANGEMENT, SEE SENATE REPORT NO. 1295, JOINT ECONOMIC REPORT,
PP. 92-93, 9S-I05, AND THE ANNUAL ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JANUARY 1953, APPENDIX A.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS




The decline in g^oss national product, which extended over the preceding 3 quarters, seems to have come to a halt
in the second quarter of this year. A decline in Federal expenditures of $3.7 billion (seasonally adjusted annual
rate) wcs offset by increases in consumption expenditures and private investment.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

400
ANNUAL TOTALS

SEASONALLY

ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

S_

350

-GROSS NATIONAL
PRODUCT

300

250

250

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION.,
EXPENDITURES

150

7
•GOVERNMENT PURCHASES
-OF GOODS AND SERVICES-

100

GROSS PRIVATE —-^
DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
NET FOREIGN INVESTMENT

1
1944

i

i
1950

1946

1952

1954

1953

1952

195!

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
Personal
Gross
Total
Net
conprivate
foreign
sumpgross
domestic
national
tion
investinvestment
product expendment
itures

Period

1939
1944
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953

_-

._ _
...

_
.

91. 1
211. 4
209 2
232. 2
257. 3
257. 3
285. 1
.328 9
346. 1
364. 9

67.6
109. 8
146. 6
165. 0
177. 6
180. 6
194. 0
208. 3
218. 4
230. 1

9. 3
7. 1
27. 1
29. 7
41. 2
32. 5
51. 2
56. 9
50. 7
51. 4

0. 9
-2. 1
4. 6
8. 9
2, 0
.5
-2. 2
.2
-. 2
-1. 9

361.
369.
367.
360.
355.
356.

228.
230.
231.
229.
230.
233.

51. 9
55. 9
52. 4
45. 5
44. 5
45. 6

-1. 8
-3. 3
-1. 8
-. 6
— 1. 1

Government purchases of goods and services
Federal
Less:
State
National
Total
Governand
Other
Total
1
security
local
ment
sales

13. 3
96. 5
30. 9
28. 6
36. 6
43. 6
42. 0
62. 8
77. 2
85. 2

5.2
89. 0
20. 9
15. 8
21. 0
25.4
22. 1
41. 0
54. 0
60. 1

1.3
88.6
21.2
13.3
16. 0
19. 3
18. 5
37. 3
48. 5
52. 0

3.9
1. 6
2. 5
3.8
5. 6
6. 6
3. 9
4. 2
5. 8
8. 5

0.0
1. 2
2.7
1.3
.5
.4
.3
.4
.4
.4

8.2
7.5
10.0
12.8
15. 6
18. 2
19.9
21. 8
23. 2
25. 1

7. 7
8.3
8. 4
9. 6
8.4
6.9

.5
.4
.4
.3
.3
.3

24. 9
24. 4
25. 1
26.2
26. 9
27. 0

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1953: First Quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1954: First quarter
Second quarter _ __. .

8
9
2
5
8
0

6
8
2
7
5
1

-I. 0

83. 0
86. 6
85. 4
86. 0
81. 9
78. 3

58. 1
62. 2
60. 3
59. 8
55. 0
51. 3

51. 0
54. 3
52. 3
50. 6
46. 9
44. 7

i Includes expenditures for military services, international security and foreign relations (except foreign loans), development and control of atomic energy, promotion of the merchant marine, promotion of defense production and economic stabilization, and civil defense. For further details, see Annual Economic Report of the
President, January 1954 (p. 167), and Survey of Current Business, July 1953 (p. 10). These expenditures are not comparable with the "national security" category in
The Budget oftht 17. S. Government for the Fiscal Year Ending June SO, 1955, and shown on p. 33 of Economic Indicators.
NOTE.—The national income and expenditure series have been revised by the Department of Commerce. For details see Survey of Current Business, July 1954.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.




CONSUMER PRICES
Consumer prices rose 0.1 percent between May and June. The tiny rise resulted mainly from an increase of 0.4 percent in food prices. For the first time in years, average rents were unchanged.
INDEX, 1947-49*100
140

NDEX, 1947-49

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1947-49=100]

Period
1939 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1945 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average
1950 monthly average
1951 monthly average
1952 monthly average
1953 monthly average _
1953: May..
J n ne
July.. _ _ _
August
September
October
November
Decem ber
1954: January
February
.
March
_ _.
April
May
.June
.......
» Not available.




All
items

Food

59.4
69.7
76.9
83. 4
102. 8
101.8
102.8
111.0
113. 5
114. 4
114.0
114. 5
114. 7
115. 0
115.2
115.4
115.0
114. 9
115. 2
115. 0
] ] 4. 8
114. 6
115. 0
] ] 5. 1

47. 1
61.3
68.9
79. 0
104. 1
100. 0
101.2
112. 6
114. 6
112. 8
112. 1
113.7
113. 8
114. 1
113.8
113.6
112.0
112. 3
113. 1
112. 6
112. 1
112. 4
113.3
1 1 3. 8

Housing
Total

Rent

C11)
C1)
C1)
C)
101. 7
103.3
106. 1
112.4
114. 6
117.7

86.6
90.4
90.9
91.4
100.7
105.0
108.8
113. 1
117.9
124. 1
123.0
123.3
123. 8
125. 1
126.0
126. 8
127. 3
127. 6
127. 8
127. 9
128. 0
128. 2
128. 3
1 28. 3

117. 1
117.4
117. 8
118.0
118.4
118. 7
118.9
118. 9
118. 8
118. 9
119. 0
118. 5
118.9
1 ] 8. 9

Apparel

Transportation

52.5
64.9
76.3
83.7
103.5
99.4
98. 1
106.9
105.8
104. 8
104. 7
104.6
104.4
104.3
105.3
105. 5
105. 5
105.3
104. 9
104.7
104. 3
104. 1
104.2
104. 2

W
C11)
C1)
C)
100.9
108.5
111.3
118.4
126.2
129.7
129.4
129.4
129.7
130. 6
130.7
130.7
130. 1
128.9
130.5
129.4
129. 0
129. 1
129. 1
128.9

Source: Department of Labor.

Reading Other
and
Medical Personal
goods
and
care
recreacare
tion
services
C1)
C11)
C)
(')
100. 9
104. 1
106. 0
111. 1
117.2
121. 3
120. 7
121.1
121.5
121.8
122. 6
122.8
123.3
123. 6
123.7
124. 1
124. 4
124.9
125. 1
125. 1

0)
0)1
C)
C1)
101.3
101. 1
101. 1
110.5
111.8
112. 8
112.8
112.6
112.6
112.7
112. 9
113.2
113.4
113. 6
113. 7
113.9
114. 1
112.9
113.0
112. 7

C1)
C1)
0)
«
100.4
104. 1
103.4
106.5
107.0
108.0
108.0
107.8
107.4
107.6
107. 8
108.6
108.9
108.9
108. 7
108.0
108. 2
106.5
106.4
106. 4

C1)
0)
(')1
C)
100.5
103.4
105.2
109.7
115.4
118.2
118.0
118. 2
118.3
118.4
118. 5
119.7
120.2
120.3
120.3
120.2
120. 1
120.2
120. 1
120. 1

Increases in the prices of farm products and processed foods in July raised the wholesale price index slightly above
the June level.
INDEX, 1947-49* 100
120

INDEX, I 9 « ? - 4 9 « I O O
120

I960

1952

195!

1953

1954

(1947-49=1001

1942 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average
1950 monthly average
1951 monthly average
1952 monthly average
1953 monthlv average
1953: June
July
August
Se pte mber
October
November
December
1954: Januarv
February
March
April
May
.
June
Julv
Week ended:
1954: August 3 „

_. .

..
.„

.

Source: Department of Labor.




.
.

.
_

64 2
104 4
99. 2
103 1
114. 8
111 6
110 1
109 5
110 9
110 6
111 0
110 2
109. 8
110 1
110 9
110. 5
110 5
111 0
110. 9
110. 0
110 4

59.2
107.3
92.8
97.5
113.4
107. 0
97. 0
95 4
97. 9
96. 4
98. 1
95. 3
93.7
94. 4
97.8
97.7
98. 4
99. 4
97. 9
94. 8
96. 2

59.1
106.1
95.7
99.8
111.4
108.8
104. 6
103.3
105.5
104.8
106.6
104. 7
103.8
104.3
106. 2
104.8
105. 3
105. 9
106.8
105. 0
106.4

Other than
'arm products
and foods
(industrial)
68.3
103.4
101.3
105.0
115.9
113.2
114.0
113.9
114.8
114.9
114.7
114.6
114.5
114.6
114. 6
114.4
114. 2
114.5
114. 5
114.2
114.3

109. 8

94. 9

104. 1

114.2

All commodities

Period

Farm
products

Processed
foods

PRICES RECEIVED AJMD FAIU JSX
Prices received by farmers declined slightly during the month ended July 15. Decreases in the prices of beef
cattle,, hogs, and deciduous fruits were largely offset by higher prices for commercial vegetables, milk, wheat, and
eggs. Prices paid also declined slightly and the parity ratio remained at 88.
INDEX, 1910-14 = 100

INDEX, 1910-14 «

325

500

275

—^
S

/|
-"PARITY INDEX
{PRICES PAID, INTEREST, T A X E S ,
AND W&GE RATES)

250

225
125

_L

75

1949

1952

1951

i960

1953

- R A T I O OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO PARITY INDEX.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

75

1954

I

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

(1910-14=1001

Period
1939 monthlv average
1942 monthlv average _
1944 monthlv average
__ __
1946 monthly average1948 monthlv average _ _
1949 monthlv average
1950 monthlv average. _
1 951 monthlv average, . _ _ .
1952 monthlv average...
1953 monthlv averago
1953: June 1 5 _ _
J u l v 15
August, 1 5
September 15
October 15
November 15
December 15
1954: January 15
l*Vbruarv 1 5
March 1 5
_ _ _ _
April 15__ _ __
Mav 15
June 15
Julv 15

J Vices paid for items
used in

Parity index
(prices paid,

Prices
received
Family living I Production and wage rates) by farmers
120
149
175
202
251
243
2-1 C»
268
271
270
271
271
273
270
270
270
270
271
271
272
273
276
276
277

'

12]
148
173
191
250
238
24 6
273
274
253
247
250
249
247
246
248
250
254
255
255
256
256
252
247

Parity ratio J

287
250
258
302
288
258
257
260
255
257
249
249
254

77
105
108
113
110
100
101
107
100
92
93
94
91
93
90
90
91

282
282

259
258

92
91

283
283
284
282
280

256
257
258
248
247

123
152
182
208
260
251
256
282
287
279
277
278
279
277
276
277
278

2

95
159

197
2236

i Ratio of index of prices received by farmers to parity index.
»Includes wartime subsidy payments paid on beef cattle, sheep, lambs, milt, and butterfat between October 1943 and June 1946.
Source: Department of Agriculture.
51035—54
2




90
91
91
88
88

Stock prices continued upward in July.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

= 100!

Composite
index *

Period
Weekly average:
1940 .
1946—
1949
1950
_
1951
1952
... .
1953
_

_

1953: June
July
August .
.
September
October
November
December
..
1954: January. ..
February
March
April
May
June
Julv
Week ended:
1954: Julv
2
9
16
23
30

August 6 2 _ _

Manufacturing
Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable
goods

Transportation Utilities

Trade,
finance,
and
service

Mining

94.2
149. 4
127.7
154. 1
184.9
195.0
193.3

93.4
146.6
132. 1
165. 7
206.8
220.2
220. 1

92.5
138.6
116.0
150.2
178.5
188.8
192.6

94.2
154.5
147. 2
180.2
233. 1
249.3
245. 2

99.2
202.4
136.0
160.0
199.0
220.6
218. 7

99.9
121.0
98. 1
108.9
112.6
117.9
121. 5

90.4
204.3
160.7
183. 8
207.7
206.0
207.1

75.6
125.5
129.4
143. 5
204.9
275.7
240.5

187.3
190. 4
190.2
181.0
187.1
191.2
193. 4
198.4
203. 1
207. 1
215. 8
223.2
223.9
233.0

212.7
216. 7
216.6
205.0
213.5
218.7
221. 8
228. 4
233. 9
239. 8
252. 9
262. 9
263.4
275. 3

186.8
188.0
185.9
175. 2
184.4
190.4
192. 1
198.8
204. 2
209. 6
223. 2
•232. 5
236.6
254.3

236.4
242. 9
244. 7
232.2
240.2
244.8
249. 1
255.5
261. 2
267. 5
280. 3
290.8
288.0
294.4

219.2
223.2
217.2
198.9
202.4
203. 8
200.0
206.2
214.6
212.3
211. 6
220. 6
225.4
233. 5

116.6
118.9
120.7
118.8
121.4
123.2
124. 5
126. 1
128.4
130.4
131. 8
134.2
134.3
138.6

204.3
206.0
206.3
198.0
201.2
207.0
209. 2
213. 0
216.0
214. 6
219.8
225.6
228.3
236. 0

237.4
236.8
236.3
219.2
218.8
231.4
229. 6
238. 6
250.3
259.2
265. 9
269.6
266.3
257. 2

229. 2
232. 3
231. 7
234. 4
237. 5
234.8

271.4
275. 2
273. 0
276. 3
280. 8
276. 9

249. 1
254. 4
253. 1
256. 0
259. 1
255.7

291. 7
294. 1
291. 2
294. 7
300. 5
. 296. 2

226. 2
230. 7
234.4
236.8
239. 2
236.0

135. 3
137. 1
138.9
141. 0
140. 9
140.2

233. 5
235.3
235.9
235.8
239. 5
240.4

256. 0
257. 3
252. 6
258. 8
261. 3
255.9

i Includes 265 common stocks: 98 for durable goods manufacturing, 72 for nondurable goods manufacturing, 21 for transportation, 29 for utilities, 31
for trade, finance, and service, and 14 for mining. Indexes are for weekly closing prices.
* Data became available after chart was prepared.
"
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.




EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
LABOR FORCE
Unemployment was practically the same in early July as in early June and employment moved up a bit.
Both developments conformed to the usual seasonal behavior.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS

MILLIONS OF PERSONS

70

70

65

1954
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Period

68-area sample : 8
1939 monthly average..
1944 monthly average..
1949 monthly average..
1950 monthly average..
1953 monthlv average..
1953: June/
July
August .
Septe mber
October
November
December
1954: January
February . _ .
230-area sample: 5
1 954 : January
February
March
_ ..
April
M ay
June
July
1
3

Total
labor
force (including
armed
forces)

Employment l

55, 600
66, 040
63, 721
64, 749
67, 001
68, 290
68, 258
68, 238
67, 127
66, 954
66, 874
66, 106
65, 589
66, 905

Unemployment 3
Insured
unemployTempo%of
ment
rary 3
Agricul- Nonagri- layoffs
^thousands4
Number civilian
Total
labor of
cultural
tural
persons)
force
Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over
9,480
9,610
45, 750
17.2
36, 140
55, 230
670
1.2
8,950
54, 630
53, 960
45, 010
2,470
8,026
62, 105
3,395
5.5
185
50, 684
58, 710
1,599
3, 142
92
5.0
52, 450
59, 957
7,507
63, 099
1, 524
2.4
1,058
142
61, 929
6, 683
63, 453
55, 245
878
122
64, 734
2.4
63, 172
1, 562
55, 046
8, 126
913
144
2.4
63, 120
1,548
55, 292
7,828
64, 668
868
7,474
1,240
1.9
55, 934
170
63, 408
64, 648
830
7,262
141
62, 306
1,246
2.0
55, 044
63, 552
897
1, 162
62, 242
63, 404
133
7, 159
1.8
55, 083
1, 198
6,651
183
1, 428
2.3
55, 274
63, 353
61, 925
1,632
1, 850
60, 764
62, 614
3.0
55, 326
195
5,438
2, 205
2,359
273
54,433
5,345
59, 778
62, 137
3.8
2,362
5,626
60, 106
5.3
177
3,385
54, 480
63, 491

66, 292
67, 139
67,218
67, 438
67, 786
68, 788
68. 824

62, 840
63, 725
63, 825
64, 063
64, 425
65, 445
65, 494

Civilian
labor
force

59,
60,
60,
60,
61,
62,
62,

753
055
100
598
119
098
148

5,284
5,704
5,875
6,076
6,822
7,628
7, 486

54, 469
54, 351
54, 225
54, 522
54, 297
54, 470
54, 661

427
216
236
216
294
229
298

3,087
3, 671
3,725
3,465
3,305
3,347
3,346

4.9
5. 8
5.8
5.4
5. 1
5. 1
5. 1

2,205
2,362
2,389
2, 383
2,247
2,082
6
2, 037

Includes part-time workers and those with jobs but not at work for such reasons as vacation, illness, bad weather, temporary layoff, and industrial disputes.
The number of temporary layoffs, which the Census Bureau includes in the employment figure (see footnote
1), is shown separately so as to afford a basis for fur8
ther 4analysis of employment and unemployment,
See footnote 2.
All programs. Weekly average for period. For description of series, see Labor Market and Employment Security, April 1954.
1
Pertains to labor force data only. Data prior to 1053 not compaiable with subsequent data.
• Preliminary estimate,
«j
Sources: Department of Commerce (labor force) and Department of Labor (insured unemployment).
«*




EMPLOYMENT - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
in July, employment fell seasonally in government and trade and somewhat more than seasonally in durable goods
manufacturing. It continued to rise in finance, services, and construction.
MILLIONS OF WAGE
AND SALARY WORKERS

MILLIONS OF WAGE
AND SALARY WORKERS

DURABLE MANUFACTURING

NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING

P9541

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

J

CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION

F

M

A

M

J

J

M

A

tf,

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

S

O

N

D

WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE

I
J

F

A

S

O

I 1
N

J

D

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of wage and salary workers
Manufacturing
Total

Period

Total

1939
1948
1949
1950
1951
. .__
1952__
1953
1953: June
Julv
August
September,
October- _ _
NovemberDecember1954: January
February __
March
April
May
June22
Julv

30, 287
44, 382
43, 295
44, 696
47, 289
48, 306
49, 660
49, 904
49, 716
49, 962
50, 200
50, 180
49, 851
50, 197
48, 147
47, 880
47, 848
48, 068
47, 935
48, 150
47, 861

10, 078
15, 321
14, 178
14, 967
16, 104
16, 334
17, 259
17,416
17, 336
17, 537
17, 510
17,301
16, 988
16, 765
16, 434
16, 322
16, 234
16, 000
15, 836
15, 888
15; 661

Durable Nondugoods rable goods
4,683
5,394
8,312
7,010
7,473
6, 705
8,085
6,882
7, 024
9,080
9, 340
6,994
10, 129
7,131
10, 301
7, 115
10, 190
7,146
10, 192
7,345
10, 145
7,365
10, 072
7, 229
9,897
7,091
9,773
6, 992
9, 591
6, 843
9,480
6,842
9,389
6,845
9, 260
6, 740
9, 152
6,684
9, 121
6, 767
8, 878
6, 783

Contract Wholesale Finance,
construc- and retail service,
tion
trade
etc.

1,150
2, 169
2, 165
2, 333
2,603
2, 634
2, 644
2, 711
2,768
2,825
2, 866
2,889
2, 789
2,632
2,349
2, 356
2,415
2,535
2, 634
2, 730
2,819

6,612
9, 519
9,513
9, 645
10,012
10, 281
10, 533
10, 473
10,414
10, 392
10, 523
10, 669
10, 828
11, 361
10, 421
10; 310
10, 305
10, 496
10, 375
10, 424
10, 381

4,703
6, 636
6,736
6,894
7, 140
7,380
7, 511
7,613
7,674
7,668
7,607
7,546
7,501
7,475
7,410
7,424
7,463
7,581
7, 644
7, 706
7; 771

Government
(Federal,
State,
local)
3,987
5, 614
5,837
5,992
6,348
6,609
6, 645
6, 585
6,405
6,422
6, 590
6,692
6, 700
6,955
6,659
6,639
6,667
6, 699
6,701
6, 625
6, 469

Transportation
and
public
utilities

2,912
4, 141
3,949
3,977
4, 166
4,185
4,224
4,260
4,283
4,274
4.265
< 257
4,216
4, 187
4,069
4,039
3,992
4,008
4.008
i 029
4,033

Mining

845
982
918
889
916
885
844
846
836
844
839
826
829
822
805
790
772
749
737
748
727

i Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonapricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period
ending nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. 'Total derived from this
table not comparable with estimates of nonapricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 7) which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes- and which are
based
3 on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
Preliminarv estimates
NOTE.—Beginning with 1951, data have been adjusted to first quarter 1953 benchmark levels.
Source: Department of Labor

8



AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS - BBUWTISU IWUUBTKIHS
The average workweek of factory production workers in July was 39.4 hours/ 0.2 hours less than in June.
crease was less than usually occurs between June and July.

The de-

HOURS PER WEEK

HOURS PER WEEK

DURABLE MANUFACTURING

NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING

i^_
0

<-«-_,

l _! I ! I I I

1 !

I I

I I 1 !

RETAIL TRADE

BUILDING CONSTRUCTION

I I I I I I I I I

COUNCIL O^ ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Hours per week, for production workers or nonsupervisory employees]
Manufacturing
Period
Total
3939
___ _
1943
MMC>
1948
1949
] 950
1951
] 952
1953
1953: June
Julv
A ugust
September
October
November
December
.
1954: Januarv
February
M arch
A priJ
MAY .
.lune 3"'
.July

___

.

.

.
.

37. 7
44. 9
40. 4
40. 1
39. 2
40. 5
40. 7
40. 7
40. 5
40. 7
40. 3
40.5
39. 9
40.3
40. 0
40. 2
39.4
39. 6
39.5
39.0
39. 3
39. 6
39. 4

Durable
goods

38.0
46. 6
40. 2
40.5
39. 5
41. 2
41. 6
41.5
41.3
41.4
40.8
41. 1
40. 6
41.0
40. 6
40.8
40. 1
40. 2
40.0
39. 7
39.9
40. 0
39. 8

Nondurable
goods

37.4
42. 5
40.5
39.6
38.8
39.7
39.5
39.6
39.5
39.7
39.6
39.6
39.0
39.3
39. 1
39.3
38. 5
38.8
38.8
38.0
38.5
39. 0
38. 9

Building
construction Retail trade

32.6

as. 4

38. 1
'37. 3
36. 7
36.3
37.2
38. 1
37.0
37.8
37. 1
37.6
36. 1
37.7
36.7
36.3
33.9
36.0
36.4
36.5
2
36. 7
237.0

M

s Preliminary estimates.
'• Data bepinninp with Jannarv 104R are DOT. strictly comparable with those for earlier periods,
2 Data became available after chart was prepared.
« N o t available.
NOTE.—Bojnrminp with 195], data have beeD revised as the result of adjusting employment series to a more recent benchmark.
Source: Department of Labor.




(4)

42.7
40.3
40. 7
40.3
40.4
40. 5
40.2
39.9
39.3
39. 4
39.9
39.8
39. 1
38.9
38.8
39.2
39.0
39. 1
39. 1
39. 1
38. 9
39.4

nwuxxui £*/uxiM,Lni?iS • SELECTED INDUSTRIES
Average hourly earnings in manufacturing in July were practically the same as in June.
DOLLARS PER HOUR

DOLLARS PER HOUR

2.00

2.60

1954

1953
•"EARNINGS IN CURRENT PRICES

DIVIDED BY

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

ON BASE 1953*100.

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of LABOR.

COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

|

[For production workers or nonsupervisory employees]
All manufacturing
Period

1939
1943
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1953: June
July
August
September
October
November .
December
1 954 : January
February
March
April
Mav
June 4
Julv*
_

Current
prices
$0. 633
.961
1.086
1.237
1.350
1. 401
1.465
1.59
1.67
1.77
1.77
1. 77
1. 77
1. 79
1.79
1.79
1.80
„
1. 80
1.80
1. 79
1. 80
1. 81
1. 81
1. 80

1953
prices l
$1. 220
1. 485
1. 490
1.481
1.502
1.574
1. 630
1.64
1. 68
1.77
1.77
1. 76
1.76
1.78
1. 77
1.78
1.79
1.79
1. 79
1. 78
1.80
1. 80
1. 80
(5)

Durable goods
manufacturing
Current
prices
$0. 698
1. 059
1. 156
1. 292
1. 410
1. 469
1. 537
1.67
1.77
1.87
1. 87
1. 88
1.88
1. 90
1.90
1. 89
1. 90
1.91
1. 90
1. 90
1. 90
1. 91
1. 91
1. 91

1953
prices l
$1. 345
1. 637
1. 586
1. 547
1. 568
1. 651
1. 710
1.72
1. 78
1.87
1.87
1.87
1. 87
1. 89
1.88
1.88
1.89
1.90
1. 89
1.89
1.90
1. 90
1. 90
W

Nondurable goods
manufacturing
Current
prices
$0. 582
.803
1.015
1. 171
1.278
1.325
1.378
1.48
1. 54
1.61
1.60
.61
. 61
.63
.62
.63
1.64
1. 65
1.65
1. 65
1. 65
1. 66
1. 66
1. 66

Building
construction

Current
1953
prices
prices l
$1. 121 $0. 932
1.252
1.241
1. 392
1. 478
1.402 2 1.681
1. 422
1. 848
1. 935
1.489
2. 031
1.533
2. 19
1. 53
2.31
J. 55
2. 48
1.61
1.60
2. 44
1. 61
2.47
1. 60
2. 49
1. 62
2. 52
1.61
2. 54
1. 62
2.55
2,57
1.63
1. 64
2.58
1. 64
2.59
1. 65
2.59
2. 58
1. 65
3
2. 58
1. 65
3
2. 58
1. 65
5
(s)
()

Retail trade

Current
1953
prices
prices l
$1. 796 $0. 542
.679
1.935
2. 027
.893
2. 013
1.009
2
2. 056
1. 088
2. 174
1. 137
1. 176
2. 259
1.26
2.26
1. 32
2.33
1.40
2. 48
1.40
2. 44
1. 41
2.46
1.41
2. 48
1.42
2. 50
1.42
2. 52
1.42
2.54
1.39
2.56
2.56
1.43
1.43
2.58
1.43
2. 58
2.57
1.43
3
2. 57
1.45
3
2. 56
1. 546
5
()
()

1953
prices 1
$1. 044
1.049
1.225
1. 208
1.210
1.278
1.308
1. 30
1.33
1.40
1. 40
1. 41
1. 40
1. 41
1.41
1. 41
1.38
1.42
1.42
1.43
1.43
1. 44
1. 45
(5)

Earnings in current prices divided by consumer price index on base 3953=100.
s4 Data became available after chart was prepared.
2
Date, beginning with January 1948 are not strictly comparable with those lor
Preliminary estimates.
5
earlier periods.
Not available.
NOTE.—Beginning with 1951, data have been revised as the result of adjusting employment series to a more recent benchmark. Source: Department of Labor.

10



AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES
Average weekly earnings of factory production workers dropped 76 cents in July to $70.92, or 41 cents under the
earnings of a year earlier.
DOLLARS PER WEEK

DOLLARS PER WEEK

85

100 I

NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING

RETAIL TRADE
J953 PRICES

[For production workers or nonsupervisory employees]
All manufacturing
Period

1939 _ _ .
1943. _ „
..
1946...
1947
... _
J948
1949
1 950
1951
1952 _ . _ .
1 953
1953: June
Julv
August
Sept -Pin her
Octobor
November
December.
1954: January
February
March
April.
M»v...
June *
July*

Current
prices

_„

Durable goods
manufacturing

.Nondurable goods
manufacturing

Building
construction

Retail trade

1953
prices 1

Current
prices

1953
prices *

Current
prices

1953
prices 1

Current
prices

1953
prices1

Current
prices

$23. 86 $45. 97
43. 14
66.68
43.82
60. 11
59. 84
49.97
60.22
54. 14
54. 92
61.71
66.00
59.33
66. 71
64. 71
68.52
67.97
71. 69
71. 69
72.04
71.97
71. 33
71. 12
71.69
71.33
71.42
70.92
72. 14
71. 50
71.24
71. 60
72. 07
72. 36
70. 92
70. 43
70. 93
71. 28
70. 50
70. 71
70.20
70.06
70. 78
73. 13
71. 68 i 71. 25
R
70. 92 <

$26. 50
49.30
46. 49
52. 46
57. 11
58.03
63. 32
69.47
73. 46
77.23
77.42
76. 70
77.27
77. 14
77.90
76. 73
77.52
76. 59
76.38
76. 00
75. 43
76. 21
76. 40
76. 02

$51. 06
76.20
63. 77
62. 83
63. 53
65.20
70. 43
71.62
74. 05
77.23
77.34
76.47
76.89
76.60
77.21
76.35
77.21
76. 06
76. 00
75.77
75. 28
75. 83
75. 94
C5)

$21. 78
34. 12
41. 14
46.96
50. 61
51. 41
54.71
58.46
60.98
63.60
63.52
63. 76
63.76
63.57
63.67
63.73
64. 45
63. 53
64.02
64.02
62.87
63. 91
64. 74
64. 57

$41. 97
52. 74
56. 43
56.24
56. 30
57. 76
60. 86
60. 27
61. 47
63. 60
63.46
63.57
63. 44
63. 13
63. 10
63.41
64. 19
63. 09
63. 70
63. 83
62. 74
63. 59
64. 35
( 5 'f

$30. 39
48. 13
56.24
63. 30
2 68. 85
70.95
73. 73
81. 47
88.01
91. 76
92.23
91. 64
93. 62
90.97
95.76
93.59
93.29
87.46
93. 24
94.28
94. 17
3
94. 69
3
95. 46
(5)

$58. 55
74.39
77. 15
75.81
2
76. 59
79.72
82.01
83.99
88.72
91. 76
92. 14
91.37
93. 15
90.34
94. 91
93. 12
92.92
86. 85
92. 78
94.00
93.98
3
94. 22
8
94. 89
(5)

$23. 14
27. 36
36. 35
40. 66
43. 85
45. 93
47. 63
50.65
52. 67
55.02
55. 16
56.26
56. 12
55. 52
55.24
55. 10
54. 49
55.77
55.91
55.91
55.91
56. 41
57. 52
(5)

1953
prices *
$44. 59
42.29
49.86
48. 69
48.78
51. 61
52.98
52. 22
53.09
55.02
55. 10
56. 09
55. 84
55. 13
54. 75
54.83
54.27
55. 38
55. 63
55.74
55.80
56. 13
57. 18
(5)

1
Karniuf,'.- in rurrrn! j u h v s divide] by consumer price index on base 1953=100.
s Data became available after chart was prepared.
' JJuta biTHtnini' w i l l ) January 19-18 are not striclJy comparable with those for
<6 Preliminary estimates.
earlier period:-.
Not available.
NOIL.- Jiej'lnninj 1 w j j h jy»M, data have been revised as the result of adjusting employment series to a- more recent benchmark.
Source: Department of Labor.




11

ritUUUUTlUlM

ACTIVITY

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
The industrial production index in June remained at the May levei of 124 (1947-49=100). indications are that
the index continued steady in July/ as most industries showed about the usual seasonal declines.
I N D E X , 1S47- 49 * I 00
175

INDEX, 1 9 4 7 - 4 9 = 100

175

100

IOO

1942

44

46

48

5 4

50

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J

1952
* PRELIMINARY
SOURCE:

J A S O N D J

F M A M J * J A S O N D

1953

1954

ESTIMATES.

BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE

FEDERAL

RESERVE SYSTEM.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS:

[1947-49=100, seasonally adjusted]
Total
industrial
production

Period
1939
1943
_._ ..
1946
_.
1947
__
1948
1949
1950
_
1951
..
1952
1953
..
1953: May
June
. July
August
September
October
November
December
.
1954: January
.
February
_
March
April
May 1
June
i Preliminary estimates.

12



.... .

.

_

58
127
90
100
104
97
112
120
124
134
137
136
137
136
133
132
129
126
125
125
123
123
124
124

Manufactures
Minerals
Durable

Total
57
133
90
100
103
97
113
121
125
136
139
138
139
138
135
134
131
127
127
126
124
125
126
126

49
162
86
101
104
95
116
128
136
153
156
154
157
157
152
151
146
142
140
139
135
134
135
135

Nondurable
66
103
95
99
102
99
111
114
114
118
123
121
121
119
117
117
115
112
113
113
114
115
116
116

68
87
91
100
106
94
105
115
114
116
117
119
120
119
118
114
111
113
113
113
112
109
111
111

Source: Board of Governors of tlae Federal Reserve System.

WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORS
The cutback in steel production and auto assemblies in July reflected the holiday and vacations,
distribution continued to exceed the levels of a year earlier.

Electric power

MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS (DAILY AVERAGE)

MILLIONS OF TONS
3

3

ONOMIC ADVISERS

St<sel

Period

Thousands of
net tons

Weekly average:
1950
1951
1952 .
1953
1953: June
Julv
August.
September .
October . .
No vem ber
December
1954: Januarv7
February
March
April
Mav
June3
Julv _
Week ended :
1954: Julv
3
10
17.
24
31
August 7 :i
1A 3

.

.

.

Percent of
theoreticall
capacity

Electric power, Bituminous
by utilities
coal
(thousands of
(millions of
kilowatt-hours) short tons) a

Cars and
trucks
(number)

1,857
2,018
1,782
2, 141
2 192
2, 099
2, 123
2, 076
2, 136
2,026
1, 798
1, 795
1, 771
1, 646
] 625
1, 687
1,716
1, 501

96. 9
100. 9
85 8
94. 9
97. 2
93. 1
94. 2
92. 1
94. 7
89.9
79 7
75. 3
74. 3
69 0
68 1
70. 7
72.0
63 0

6, 183
6, 958
7 451
8,244
8 279
8,238
8,488
8 352
8 331
8, 352
8, 502
8, 918
8 576
8 526
8 347
8 406
8,684
8 841

1, 687
1, 772
1, 548
1, 507
1 603
1, 540
1, 549
1 640
1, 503
1,496
1 466
1, 346
1, 226
1, 146
1 109
1 142
1, 314
1 182

154, 212
129, 828
106, 834
140, 551
150, 449
154, 329
147, 542
128, 375
140,317
103, 576
103, 511
138, 387
132, 416
136, 951
144 140
144, 496
128, 209
119, 768

] 568
1, 430
] , 534
1 557
1, 532
1 , 527
], 519

65 8
00 0

8 825
$ 185
8, 951
9 103
9, ] 39
9, 059

1 455
i 068
1 2007
] IS'
1,250

128
99
125,
122
123,
120,

)4. 3
>5 3
V1. 2
H. 0

>3. 7

396
089
091
789
482
392

1
Percent of capacity based on weekly net ion capacity 011,900,268 for the first half of 195U, 1.928.721 beginning July ], ]'J!»50, 1,999,034 beginning January 1,1951,
2 ,077,040
bepimiinp January 1, 1952, 2,254,459 nepinniiif! January ], 1953, and 2,384,549 beginning January 3,1954."
2
Daily average for week.
* Preliminary estimates.
Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Automotive Reports.
51035—5-1
3




13

In June production of most durable and nondurable goods industries was about the same as in May.
exceptions were an increase in steel output and a decrease in auto production.

Important

INDEX, 1947-49 = 100, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

INDEX, 1947-49=100, SEASONALLY-ADJUSTED

i i i i I I I I t M i t f i i i i i I i n 1 1 I i i i i i 1 1 i i i l l n 1 1 i I 50 I i I 1 i t

t

i I I i i i 1 1 I i i ii i I 1 1 i i I I 1 1 i 1 1 I i i 1 1 1 I i i 1 1 i

150

1954

1952

.'COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISIRS

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.

[1947-49=100, seasonally adjusted]
Durable manufactures
Primary
metals

Period
1939
1947
1948
1949___
1950
1951
1952._
1953

_.

1953: May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1954: January
February
March.
April
Mav l
. __
June

. .

.

Lumber
and
products

53
103
107
90
115
126
116
132

80
101
106
93
113
113
111
118

139
137
136
137
130
128
122
113
111
109
103
103
106
109

119
114
119
116
114
117
115
110
115
120
116
114
121

1
Preliminary estimates.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

14



Transportation
Machinery equipment
38
48
103
96
104
102
93
102
114
120
130
135
147
154
189
160
162
161
164
165
161
159
152
146
143
141
138
138
137
139

192
188
196
191
186
189
180
182
183
178
171
172
175
170

Nondurable manufactures
and
Textiles Petroleum Food
beverage Chemicals
and coal
and
and allied
manuproducts
apparel
products
factures
80
45
63
66
99
97
97
101
104
103
103
99
101
99
97
100
121
110
110
103
122
106
136
105
137
105
123
105
147
107
130
107
115
113
111
106
102
102
98
95
96
95
97
100
99
98

131
131
132
132
131
129
129
128
124
126
122
124
122
122

109
106
108
108
109
108
108
103
105
106
106
107
110
109

151
150
152
148
147
146
145
145
143
146
146
146
147
148

JT AXJ. V^IL J. JLi JL^VJ'J.YJ.l^O J. J.V/ ±1^1 V J-*O 1

The gross private domestic investment increased about $1 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) between the
first and second quarters of 1954. New construction increased. The rate of inventory disinvestment was reduceds
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

70

70
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

60

50
ACROSS PRIVATE
DOMESTIC INVESTMENT

40

30

30
NEW CONSTRUCTION

20

20

10

CHANGE IN BUSINESS*
INVENTORIES

I

1942

I

I

1944

I

I

1946

I

I

1948

!

I

1

1950

I

1952

I

I

1954

J

I

I

1952

1951

J

-_
\.

I

I

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

I

I

-10

1954

1953

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
Total gross
private
domestic
investment

Period

1939
1 944
1946
_ _ _ 1947
1948
1949 _ _ _
1950
1951
1952
1953
-_ _

-

_ ___

9.3
7. 1
27. 1
29.7
41.2
32. 5
51.2
56. 9
50.7
51.4

New construction
Residential
nonfarm

Total
4.8
2.7
10.3
14. 0
17.9
17.5
22.7
23.3
23.7
25.5

2.7
.8
4. 0
6.3
8. 6
8.3
12. 6
11.0
11. 1
11. 9

Other

Producers'
durable
equipment

2. 1
1.9
6.3
7.7
9.3
9.2
10. 1
12.4
12.6
13. 6

Change in
business
inventories

4.2
5.4
10. 7
16. 7
19. 1
17. 8
21. 1
23. 2
23.3
24. 4

0.4
-1.0
6. 1
-1.0
4. 2
-2.7
7.4
10.4
3.6
1. 5

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1953: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1954: First quarter
Second quarter

_

__

51. 9
55.9
52.4
45. 5

25. 0
25. 9
25. 6
25. 7

11. 7
12.2
12. 1
11. 7

13.3
13.7
13. 5
13.9

24. 1
24. 4
24. 6
24.0

2.8
5.4
2.0
-4.2

44.5
45. 6

26. 0
27.0

11. 7
12.8

14.3
14.2

22.7
22.4

-4.2
-3.8

NOTE.—The national income and expenditure series have been revised by the Department of Commerce. For details see Survey of Current Business, July 1954.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.




15

EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
Business expenditures for new plant and equipment totaled $27.5 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the
first quarter of this year and were scheduled at a rate of almost $27 billion in the second and third quarters, according
to a survey made in April and May.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

ANNUAL TOTALS

30

1945

1947

1949

1951

1953

1950

1954

I/ SEE NOTE 4 ON TABLE BELOW.
SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
Manufacturing
Total J

Period

1939
1945
1948
1949_
I960
1951
1952 3
1953

....
.

5. 51
a 69
22.06
19.28
20.60
25.64
26. 49
28. 39

Total

1.94
3.98
9. 13
7. 15
7.49
10.85
11. 63
12. 28

Transportation
Mining
Durable NonduraRailroads Other
goods ble goods

0.76
1.59
3.48
2.59
3. 14
5.17
5. 61
5.82

1. 19
2.39
5.65
4.56
4.36
5.68
6.02
6. 46

0.33
.38
.88
.79
.71
.93
.98
1. 01

0.28
.55
1.32
1.35
1. 11
1.47
1. 40
1.31

Public
utilities

Commercial and
other 3

0.52
.50
2.54

0.36
.57
1.28
.89
1.21
1.49
1. 50
1.46

3.31
3.66
3. 89
4.55

2.08
2.70
6.90
5.98
6.78
7.24
7. 09
7.78

1.38
1.38
1. 59
1.52
1. 47
1.27
1. 30

4. 40
4. 64
4.72
4. 46
4.29
4. 44
4. 53

7.4;
7.9!
7.9^
8. Oi
7.87. 9i
8.21

a 12

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1953: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1954: First quarter 4
Second quarter4
Third quarter

27.84
28.48
28. 92
28. 56
27.48
26. 94
26.79

12.35
12.26
12. 30
12. 22
11.87
11.42
11. 02

5.98
5. 88
5. 76
5. 69
5. 50
5. 54
5.09

6.36
6.38
6. 54
6.53
6. 37
5.87
5.94

.96
.93
1.06
1. 10
.95
.98
1. 04

1.34
1.34
1.30
1. 26
1.06
.86
.70

1 Excludes agriculture.
Commercial and other inclcdes trade, service, finance, communications, and construction.
3 Annual total is sum of seasonally unadjusted quarterly expenditures; it does not necessarily coincide with average of seasonally adjusted figures, in part
because of adjustments when necessary for systematic tendencies in anticipatory data.
* Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures as reported by business in April and May 1954.
NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the
latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources; Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce.
2

16



ISf&W UUJNSTKUUTIUB1
New construction expenditures, seasonally adjusted, remained at a monthly rate of above $3 billion during July.
The total for the first 7 months of this year reached a new high and was about 3 percent above the corresponding period
of 1953. The increase occurred almost entirely in private building.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

ilLLlONS OF DOLLARS

1 3.5
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

^TOTAL CONSTRUCTION

3.0

3.0

•TOTAL PRIVATE

2.0

2.0

1.5
PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL
(NONFARM)

OTHER PRIVATE

FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL

I

I

!

I

I

I

I

1952

I

I

!

I

I

I

1954

1953

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Period
1939 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1946 monthlv average
1 948 monthly average
1949 monthlv average
1950 monthly average. . _» . _
1951 monthlv average
1952 monthly average
1953 monthlv average _ _
_ _
1953: June___ .
Julv
August
September
October
November
December
1954: Januarv
February
March
_.
April
>
Mav
June
_ _
Julv 2

Total new
construction
683
1,173
438
1,000
1,806
1 , 899
2, 371
2, 598
2. 751
2,938
2, 961
2; 916
2, 883
2, 925
2,880
2, 936
2, 955
2,956
3, 050
3, 001
3. 025
3, 066
3, 069
3. 085

i Includes public residential construction.

Private construction
Total
Residential
Other
(nonfarm)
private
142
223
366
142
143
285
114
182
68
469
803
335
689
1, 404
715
676
689
1 , 365
1, 788
738
1,050
1, 814
914
899
1, 842
917
925
996
994
1, 990
1,001
2, 032
1,031
993
2, 008
1, 015
995
2? 000
1, 005
999
995
1, 994
], 982
1,003
979
1, 026
2, 002
976
1, Oil
1, 992
981
1,021
1. 992
971
1. 032
972
2, 004
2, 017
981
1,031
1,032
2, 063
1, 035
2, 1 ] 6
1. 081
1, 027
2, 112
1,085
2. 152
1. 114
1. 038

liose

Federal,
State, and
local l
317
888
256
197
402
534
583
785
908
948
929
908
883
931
898
934
963
964
1,046
984
962
950
957
933

* Preliminary estimates.

Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor.




17

NEW HOUSING STARTS
Nonfarm housing starts rose 12 percent in June to a total of 120,000, the peak month thus far this year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, private starts were at an annual rate of 1,206,000 units, well above the rate for any June since
1950, and greater than any month since January 1951.
THOUSANDS OF UNITS
150 I

THOUSANDS OF UNITS
1150

NEW NONFARM DWELLING UNITS

50

I

L

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF L A B O R .

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

All new nonfarm housing units started
Period
Total
Annual totals: 1949
>
1950
1951_
1952.
1953
MonthJv average: 1949
1950
1951 .
1952
1953
1953: May
.
June
July
August
.
September
October
November
December
1954: January
February
March
April 22
Mav
_.
June2

._

_

1, 025, 100
1, 396, 000
1, 091, 300
1, 127, 000
1, 103, 800
85, 400
116,300
90, 900
93, 900
92, 000
108, 300
104, 600
96, 700
93, 200
95, 100
90, 100
81, 500
65, 800
66, 400
75, 200
95, 200
111, 000
107,000

120; ooo

Public
36, 300
43, 800
71, 200
58, 500
35, 500
3,000
3,600
5,900
4, 900
3,000
2,700
2,600
300
1,000
3,000
C1)
1,600
1,300
1,300
liSOO
2, 000
1,200
500
4,400

Private

988, 800
1, 352, 200
1, 020, 100
1, 068, 500
1, 068, 300
82, 400
112,700
85, 000
89, 000
89, 000
105, 600
102, 000
9ft, 400
92, 200
92, 100
90, 100
79, 900
64, 500
65, 100
73, 900
93, 200
109, 800
106, 500
115, 600

Seasonally adjusted annual
rates: private

1, 065, 000
1, 064, 000
1, 015, 000
988, 000
1, 014, 000
1, 050, 000
1, 077, 000
1, 060, 000
1, 056, 000
1, 152, 000
1, 130, 000
1, 136; 000
1, 074, 000
1, 206, 000

i Less than 50.
2 Preliminary estimates.
18
-^ OTE.—Data beginning with January ]954 are based upon a revised method of estimating housing stflrts. In addition, revised seasormHndexes have j^een
Source: Department of Labor.
applied in computing seasonally adjusted annual rates of private housing starts from January 1946 forward.




INVENTORIES AND SALES
Total June sales were about $800 million (seasonally adjusted) higher than a month earlier, with increases occurring
at both the manufacturers' and distributors' levels. Manufacturers' new orders rose slightly. A decline of $400
million in total manufacturing and trade inventories during June brought the total decline for the first 6 months of this
year to $2.1 billion. Most of the decrease during the half year occurred in stocks of durable goods manufacturers.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, SEASONALLY

ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, SEASONALLY

TOTAL* AND MANUFACTURING

ADJUSTED

RETAIL

i INVENTORIES •

1S5I

I952

INDEX, IS-47-4S- 100, SEASONALLY

I953
ADJUSTED

140

IS54

1953

1954

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.

Period

Manufacturing
and trade ]
InvenSales 3
tories 2

Retail
Inventories 2

Department, stores

Manufacturing
Inventories 2

Sales 8

Sales s

New
orders3

Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
1939 _
1946
1948
1949 .
1950
1951
1952
1953
1953: Mav
June
Julv
August
September
October
November
December
1954: January - . .
February.
March
April
Mav
June 66 . _ _
Julv

20, 051
42, 892
55,612
52, 111
64, 721
5
75, 268
77, 109
81, 072
79, 678
80, 167
81, 116
81, 586
82, 000
81, 805
81, 276
81, 072
80, 688
80, 390
80, 093
79,516
79, 372
78, 957

5, 534
11,852
15, 828
15.311
IS. 652
6
2I,239
21, 592
22, 661
22,455
22, 294
22, 743
22, 775
22, 924
22, 720
22, 437
22, 663
22, 521
22,421
22, 563
22, 690
22, 804
22, 600

10, 802
27, 150
36, 438
34, 664
39, 917
6
44, 821
46, 080
48, 817
49, 395
50, 003
50, 398
48, 138
48, 652
48,284
47, 518
47, 209
46, 450
46, 714
47, 094
47, 636
46, 914
47, 700
i

11,465
24,457
31, 693
28, 800
34,314
42, 904
44. 190
46,722
45, 673
46, 160
46,485
46, 888
47, 087
47, 044
46, 909
46; 722
46, 382
46, 115
45, 774
45, 183
44, 798
44; 504

3,503
8, 541
10, 877
10, 893
11, 974
5
13, 185
13, 674
14, 234
14, 424
14,412
14,469
14, 073
13, 082
14,040
14, 104
13, 932
13,622
13, 972
13,900
14,242
14, 044
14, 439
!

5, 112
12, 617
17, 630
16,416
19, 285
22, 205
23, 046
25, 271
25, 816
25, 882
26, 366
25, 067
25, 379
25,010
24, 256
24, 126
23, 902
23, 620
24, 064
24,418
23, 978
24, 176

5,354
13, 694
17, 350
15, 903
20, 980
24, 391
23, 710
23, 846
25, 883
25, 152
24, 525
22,339
22, 661
22, 163
21,594
22, 026
20, 749
22,016
22, 859
23, 017
22, 819
22, 877

InvenSales 3
tories *
Index 1947-49=100,
seasonally adjusted
35
77
107
100
109
129
118
126
127
128
130
131
128
128
127
123
120
119
121
120
121
122

35
90
104
98
105
109
110
112
117
115
113
112
107
110
113
112
107
109
105
111
108
112
115

5
New series on retail trade beginning with 1951; not comparable with previous
Also includes wholesale, not shown separately in this table.
data.
See Survey of Current Business, September and November 1952. for detail.
Book value, end of period.
fi
Preliminary estimates.
i4 Monthly average for year and total for month.
Book value, end of period, except annual data, which are monthly averages.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System.

1
8




19

MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
Commercial exports declined in June for the second consecutive month/ whiie imports rose substantially. However,
for the first 6 months of this year, commercial exports were 3 percent above, and imports were 7 percent below, their
levels in the corresponding period last year. The export surplus decreased in June.
j

MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,600

M I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS

1,600

MONTHLY AVERAGES

TOTAL MERCHANDISE
EXPORTS

1,200

1

TOTAL MERCHANDISE
IMPORTS

I/ SEE FOOTNOTES I AND 2 ON TABLE BELOW.
SOURCES : DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF D E F E N S E .

COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars]
Merchandise exports
Period

Total

1936—38 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1948 monthly average
.
1949 monthly average
1950 monthly average 1951 monthly average
_
1952 monthly average
1 953 monthly average „
1953: May
June
July
August
.
September
October
November
December
1 95-1 • .1 ,»i rnifirv
February
Miirch '
A t > i il
\\\\\
Jinn

20

!-.•«!»*




_ __

J

247
812
1,054
1,003
856
1,253
1,266
1, 314
1,453
1,384
1 5 358
1, 186
1,256
1,253
1, 247
1,353
1,092
1, 182
1, 124
1,425
], 399
1. 474

Grant-aid
shipments 2

Excluding
grant-aid
shipments

54

757

24
89
166
293
368
372
398
275
205
234
216
215
169
184
203
167
264
359

833
1, 164
1, 100
1,021
1,085
1,013
960
911
1, 051
1, 019
1, 030
3, 337
922
997
920
1. 258
1. 134
3, 114

Merchandise
imports

Excess of e xports
i (/ )\( + )
or impc rts
Total

207
412
594
552
738
914
893
906
902
933
908
840
926
814
849
907
833
809
858
958
829
947

4-40
-1-400
4-460
4-452
4-118
4-339
4-373
4-408
4-551
+ 451
4-450
4-346
4-330
4-440
4-398
+ 446
+ 259
+ 372
+ 266
+ 468
+ 570
+ 527

Excluding
grant-aid
shipment*

+ 345
+ 95
+ 250
+ 207
+ 115
+ 183
+ 80
+ 52
+ 71
+ 126
+ 206
+ 182
+ 231
+ 90
+ 188
+ 63
+ 301
+ 306
+ 167

it-rud projrrarnF: for some of these programs separate data are not available.
Uopartnu'Di of D«'f»'nsp shipmonts of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Mutual Security
he p j n r r j i n j (Ju)y-])t'ccmlH!r ]050) amounted to 282 million collars.
j=*tiuHh H<1<1 tu
of rounding.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Defense.

PURCHASING POWER
NATIONAL INCOME
National income rose slightly between the first and second quarters of this year, according to current estimates. Proprietors' income declined slightly due to a fall in farmers' income. Other major components moved up a trifle.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

350

350
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

300

NATIONAL
INCOME

250

250

-COMPENSATION
OF EMPLOYEES

150

PROPRIETORS'AND
RENTAL INCOME

50
CORPORATE PROFITS AND
INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT

1942

1944

1946

1946

I960

1952

1954

195!

<

=F

1952

J/

1953

-'PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED).

1954
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
Total
national
income

Period

1939
1944 . _ _ _ _ _
1946_
3947 .
1948
1949
1950
1951
___
1952
1953

__

72. 8
182. 6
179. 6
197. 2
221. 6
216. 2
240. 0
277. 0
291. 0
305. 0

Compensation of
employees
48. 1
121. 3
117. 7
128. 8
140. 9
140. 9
154. 3
180.4
195. 4
209. 1

Corporate profits and inventory
valuation adjustment

Proprietors'
(business,
professional,
farm)
and rental
income

Net interest

14. 4
35. 0
41. 5
40. 9
45. 6
42, 0
44. 6
49. 9
49. 9
49. 0

4. 6
3. 3
3. 1
3. 8
4. 5
5. 2
5. 9
6. 8
7. 4
8.4

Total
5. 7
23. 0
17. 3
23. G
30. 6
28. 1
35. 1
39. 9
38. 2
38. 5

Profits
before
taxes
6. 4
23. 3
22. 6
29. 5
32. 8
26. 2
40.0
41. 2
37. 2
39.4

Inventory
valuation
adjustment
-0. 7
o

~5". 3
-5. 9
2. 2
1. 9
4 9
-1.3
1.0
-1. 0

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1953: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1954: First quarter _
Second quarter

305. 9
308. 2
306. 2
299. 9
298.
9
1
299. 6

206. 2
210. 0
211. 4
208. 8
206. 4
206. 6

50. 3
48. 9
47. 8
49. 1
49. 4
49. 0 ;

7. 9
8. 3
8. 6
8. 9
9. 0
9. 1

41. 4
41. 0
38.3
33. 1
34. 1
'34. 9

42. 4
41. 9
40. 9
32. 5
34. 5
134.5

g

— '. 9
-2. 6
.6
—. 4
.4

1

Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers.
NOTE.— The national income and expenditure series have been revised by the Department of Commerce. For details see Survey of Current Business, July 1954.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted).




21

CORPORATE PROFITS
Corporate profits, both before end after taxes, in the first half of this year were well below a year ago.
of the excess profits tax contributed to the relatively favorable showing of profits after taxes.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
60

Abolition

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
60

^1954
ALLOWANCE FOR INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT.
^PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ( E X C E P T AS NOTED).

COUNCH Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
Corporate
profits
before taxes

Period

Corporate
tax
liability

Corporate profits after taxee
Total
5.0
10. 4
13. 4
18. 2
20.3
15. 8
22. 1
18. 7
17.2
18. 3

Dii'idend
payments
3. 8
4. 7
5.8
6. 5
7. 2
7. 5
9.2
9. 1
9. 1
9. 4

Undistributed
profits
1.2
5. 7
7. 7
11. 7
13. 0
8.3
12. 9
9. 6
8. 1
8.9

6. 4
23.3
22. 6
29. 5
32. 8
26.2
40. 0
41. 2
37.2
39. 4

1. 4
12. 9
9. 1
11. 3
12. 5
10. 4
17. 8
22. 5
20.0
21. 1

1953: First quarter
Second quarter _
Third quarter _ _ _
Fourth quarter

42. 4
41. 9
40. 9
32. 5

22. 7
22. 5
21. 9
17. 4

19. 7
19. 5
19.0
15. 1

9. 1
9.3
9. 5
9. 6

10. 6
10. 2
9. 5
5. 5

1954: First quarter l
Second quarter

34. 5
34.5

17. 0
17.0

17. 5
17.5

9. 6
9.6

7. 9
7.9

1939
1944
1946___
1947
1948- -_
1949
1950_._
1951
1952__
1953

_

Seasonally adjusted annual rates

1

Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers.
NOTE.—See p. 21 for profits before taxes and inventory valuation adjustment.
The national income and expenditure series have been revised by the Department of Commerce. For details see Survey of Current BtisinesSj
July ]954.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Scarce; Department of Commerce (except as noted).

22



Personal income is estimated at an annual rate of $286.4 billion (seasonally adjusted) in June, which mark as very
slight advance over May.
None of the major components changed significantly. The total for the first half of
this year was at an annual rate of $285.3 billion, compared with $284.8 in the corresponding period of 1953.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

250

LABOR INCOME*

150

100
BUSINESS, PROFESSIONAL,
AND RENTAL INCOME
FARM PROPRIETORS'
INCOME

1942

1944

1946

1948

1950

1952

1954

Period

_

72. 9
165. 7
208. 7
206. 8
227. 1
271. 2
286. 1

1953: Mav
June
July
.
August
September
October
November
December
1954: January
__ _
February
March__
April
Mav .
June 8. . . . . _

286.3
287.3
288. 2
286.4
287. 7
287.8
287. 2
287. 0
284. 9
285. 0
285. 0
284. 4
286. 2
286. 4

1939
1944 _
1948
1949
1950
1952
1953

1954

1952

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE.

Total
personal
income

195!

[Billions of dollars]
Proprietors' income
Labor income
Dividends
(wage and
Business,
salary disand
professional,
personal
bursements
Farm
and
rental
and other
interest
income
labor income)
9.6
10. 0
4.3
46. 6
10.8
118. 5
23.5
11. 5
28.8
16. 2
16. 7
137.9
17.2
12. 7
29.3
137. 4
19. 8
13. 3
31.3
150. 3
14.2
35.7
21. 4
190. 6
22. 8
12. 2
36.8
204. 4
Seasonally adjusted annual rates
22.6
12. 0
36.8
205. 3
22. 8
206.2
36.8
12.0
23.0
36. 7
207.8
11.2
36.6
23. 2
10. 1
207. 1
23. 4
12. 1
36.8
205. 7
23.5
36.7
205. 7
11. 3
23. 7
12.2
36.9
204. 5
23.8
36.8
202. 7
13.4
23. 9
36.4
201. 3
13. 2
23. 9
201.3
13.2
36. 4
23.9
36.4
201. 1
12. 5
24. 0
36. 7
200. 9
11. 5
24.0
36. 8
201. 6
12.6
24. 1
201. 8
12. 4
36. 9

Transfer
pay men ts

2

Less: Personal contributions
for social
insurance l

3.0
3. 6
11. 3
12.4
15. 1
13. 1
13. 8

0. 6
2.2
2. 2
2.2
2.9
3.8
4. 0

13. 6
13. 6
13. 6
13. 6
13. 7
14. 6
13. 9
14. 4
14.8
15. 0
15. 8
15. 9
15. 8
15. 8

4.0
4. 1
4. 1
4. 1
4. 0
4.0
4.0
4. 1
4.7
4.8
4. 7
4. 6
4.6
4. 7

1
Social insurance contributions of employees arid, begin nip? January
J
Includes $2.7 billion National Service Life Insurance dividend, most
1

1952, of self-employed persons.
of which was paid in the first half of the year.
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.— The national income and expenditure scries have been revised by the Department of Commerce. For details see Survey of Cunent Business, July 1954.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.




23

CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING
Disposable persona! income rose somewhat during the second quarter, according to current estimates. Consumer
spending for both goods and services rose rather substantially. As a result the rate of personal saving fell to 7.8
percent.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

250

— £50

100

50

'1942

1944

1946

1948

1950

1954

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC-ADVISERS

Less :

Personal Personal
and Disposincome tax
able
nontax personal
payments income

Period

...

72, 9
165. 7
178. 0
190. 5
208. 7
206. 8
227. 1
255. 3
271. 2
286. 1

2.4
18. 9
18.8
21. 5
21. 1
18. 7
20. 9
29. 3
34. 4
36. 0
Billions

1953: First quarter
_ __
Second quarter
Third quarter _
_ _
Fourth quarter _ _ _
1954" First quarter
Second quarter .

283.3
286.4
287. 5
287. 3
285. 1
285. 7

35. 5
35. 9
36. 3
36. 1
32. 8
32. 9

1939
1944
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953

_

._
_

Equals :

_

-

Less: Personal consumption
expenditures
Total

Net saving
as percent
of disPersonal
net
posable
NonDurable durable
Services saving
income
goods
goods

Billions of dollars
25.8
35. 1
67. 6
6.7
70. 4
37. 7
65. 4
6. 8
109. 8
146. 8
84. 5
46. 2
146. 6
15. 9
159.2
93. 1
51. 3
20. 6
165. 0
169. 0
98.7
56. 7
22.2
177. 6
187. 6
96. 9
60. 1
180. 6
23. 6
188. 2
100. 4
65. 0
194. 0
28. 6
206. 1
70. 1
111. 1
208. 3
27. 1
226. 1
116.0
75.6
26. 8
218. 4
236. 9
118. 9
230. 1
29. 7
81. 4
250. 1
of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rates
79.4
30. 4
118. 8
228. 6
247. 8
80.9
119. 6
230. 8
30. 3
250.4
82. 3
118. 6
30. 3
231. 2
251. 2
83.0
28.0
118. 7
229. 7
251.2
118. 8
28.0
83. 6
230. 5
252. 3
120.0
84. 3
28. 8
233. 1
252.9

Equals:

2, 9
36. 9
12. 6
4.0
10. 0
7. 6
12. 1
17. 7
18.4
20. 0

4. 1
25. 2
7.9
2. 4
5.3
4. 0
5. 9
7. 8
7. 8
8.0

19.2
19. 6
20. 0
21. 5
21. 8
19. 7 !

7. 7
7. 8
8. 0
8. 6
8. 6
7. 8

NOTE.—The national income and expenditure scries have been revised by the Department of Commerce. For details see Survey of Current Business, July 1954.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Department of Commerce.

24



1JMUOME

UAF1TA

Per capita disposable income in the second quarter of this year remained at the same level as in the two preceding
quarters, accordins to current estimates.
DOLLARS

DOLLARS

2,000

£,000
ANNUAL

AVERAGES

SEASONALLY

ADJUSTED ANNUAL

RATES

1,500

1,500

CURRENT

PRICES

1,000

1,000

500

500

1942

1946

1944

1948

lj SEE NOTE 2 ON TABLE
SOURCES:

1950

195!

1952

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

AND

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

ADVISERS.

Total disposable personal Per capita disposable personal income (dollars)1
income (billions of dollars)1

Period

1953
prices 2

Current
prices

1939
1944 - _ __
1946 -_
_
1947
1948
1949 ._
_
1950
1951
1952
1953

_

_

__
-_

...
...

1954

1953

BELOW.

.

_ ___ _ _

70. 4
146. 8
159.2
169.0
187. 6
188.2
206. 1
226. 1
236. 9
250. 1

135. 6
223. 4
218.4
202. 4
208. 7
211. 5
229. 3
233. ]
238. 8
250. 1

Current
prices

537
1,061
1, 126
1, 173
I! 279
1, 261
1, 359
], 465
1, 509
1, 567

1953
prices 8

Population
(thousands) 3

1,035
1, 615
1,545
1,405
1,423
1,417
1, 512
1. 510
1, 521
1^567

131, 028
138, 397
141, 389
144, 126
146, 631
149, 188
151, 683
154, 360
157, 022
159, 629

Seasonally adjusted annual rates
1953: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter _
Fourth quarter _
1954: First quarter
Second quarter.

. _
_.

.

247, 8
250. 4
251. 2
251. 2

249. 5
251. 2
250. 0
249. 7

1,561
1, 572
1, 570
1,563

1,572
1, 577
1,562
1, 554

158, 714
159, 306
160, 022
160, 764

252. 3
252. 9

251. 0
251.9

1, 563
1, 560

1, 555
1, 554

161,436
162. 078

1
Income less taxes.
28 Dollar estimates in current prices divided by consumer price index on base 1953=100.
Includes armed forces overseas. Annual data as of July 1; Quarterly data centered in the middle of the period, interpolated from monthly figures.
NOTE.—The national income and expenditure series have been revised by the Department of Commerce. For details see Survey of Current Business, July 1954.
Sources: Department of Commerce and Council of Economic Advisers,




25

FARM INCOME
During the first 6 months of 1954, farmers received on the average $2.1 billion per month from cash marketings and
Government payments, about 2 percent below the same period of 1953. Livestock receipts were down about 1
percent. Crop receipts were about 4 percent lower.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
5

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
5

1954
"COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

1939 monthly average
1942 monthly average
1944 monthly average
1946 monthly average
1948 monthly average
1949 monthly average
1950 monthly average,
1951 monthly average
1952 monthly average
1953 monthly average
1953; May.
.
June
July
August
_.
September.
October
November
December
1954 1 January .
February
March
April
May.
June 3

26

Parity index
Farm income
Farm income
(prices paid,
(millions
of
Period
interest, taxes, (millions of 3
current
and wace rates) 1953 dollars)
dollars)
1953 = 100!
1, 625
715
44
1,345
2, 491
54
. . . . .
1,763
2,712
65
2, 111
2, 815
75
2,539
2,730
93
..
2,344
2, 604
90
2,591
2,384
92
2, 757
2,730
101
.... ..
..
.
2,721
2, 642
103
2,599
2,599
100
2,009
...
2, 009
100
2, 156
2, 178
99
2,404
2, 404
100
2,461
2,461
100
3, 201
3, 169
99
3, 737
3, 700
99
3, 443
3, 478
99
2,986
2,986
100
2, 629
101
2,603
1,941
1, 960
101
. . _. . _
1,994
2, 014
101
1,914
I, 895
101
..
. . .
2,022
2,062
102
.
_ _ _ 2, U6
101
2, 178

» Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1953=100.
• Farm income to current dollars divided by parity index on base 1953=100.
• Preliminary estimate.
Nom—Farm income Includes cash receipts from marketings and Government payments.




Source; Department of Agriculture.

CREDIT, MONEY, AND FEDERAL FINANCE
BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS
Total loans and investments of commercial banks rose $600 million in June. Investments accounted for
practically all of the increase. Loans, on the average, changed very little, with a sharp rise during the first half of the
month being offset by a decline in the last half.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
175

175

1939

1945

1950

1951

1952

1952

END OF YEAR

1953

END OF MONTH
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

End of period

1939
.
1945
1947 ..
1949
1950
1952
1953 _ _
1953: May

June. .
July
August
September.
October
November
December.
1954: January. .
February
March
April
M av

June 2
Jnlvz

Total
loans and
investments

->

- __

40.7
124. 0
116. 3
120.2
126.7
141.6
146.4
138. 1
138.0
143.2
143. 1
143. 0
144. 0
145.5
145.7
145.3
144.9
142. 8
144. 1
145. 7
146. 3

[Billions of dollars]
A1J commercial banks
Investments
Loans

17.2
26. 1
38. 1
43. 0
52. 2
64. 2
68.3
65.4
65.0
65.6
66.0
66.3
67. 1
67.2
67.6
66.5
66. 9
67.0
66.8
67. 1
67.2

Total

23.4
97.9
78.2
77.2
74.4
77.5
78. 1
72.7
72.9
77.6
77. 1
76. 7
76. 8
78.3
78. 1
78. 9
78.0
75.7
- 77.4
78.6
79. 1

U.S.
Government
securities
16.3
90.6
69.2
67.0
62.0
63. 3
63.6
58.3
58.6
63.2
62.6
62.2
62. 3
63.7
63.4
64. 2
63.0
60.6
62. 1
63.3
63.6

Other
securities

Weekly
reporting
member
banks—
business
loans J

7. 1
7.3
9.0
10. 2
12.4
14. 1
14. 6
14.4
14.3
14.3
14.5
14 5
14.5
14. 6
14. 7
14.7
15.0
15. 1
15.2
15. 3
15.5

J
» Commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans; revised series beginning January 1952.
Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.




4.7
7.2
14.7
13.9
17.9
23.4
23.4
22.8
22.8
22.6
22.9
23. 1
23.3
23.2
23.4
22.5
22.4
22. 8
22.2
21.9
21. 9
21.5

27

CONSUMER CREDIT
Consumer credit outstanding, increasing for the third consecutive month, totaled $27.8 billion at the end of June, or
a quarter billion dollars more than a month earlier. The rise in instalment credit, largely seasonal, resulted from
increases in automobile credit and personal loans. All types of noninstalment credit also rose.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
30

30

1939

1945

»950
1951
END OF YEAR

1952

1953

1952

1953
END OF MONTH
COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.

End of period

1939
1945
1950___
195U.
1952
1953
1953: May
June
July
August
September .
October
November
December
__
1954: January
.. _
February -- March
April
May
._ _ _
June

Total
consumer
credit
outstanding
7,222
5,665
20,813
21,468
25, 827
28, 896
27, 056
27,411
27, 581
27, 810
27, 979
28. 166
28, 252
28, 896
28, 125
27, 478
27, 151
27, 330
27, 520
27, 779

[Millions of dollars)
Instalment credit
Total

Automobile
paper *

4,503
2,462
14,490
14,837
18, 684
21, 807
20, 213
20, 635
21, 004
21,218
21, 347
21, 486
21, 586
21, 807
21, 444
21, 151
20, 900
20, 909
20, 932
21, 110

1,497
455
6,342
6,242
8, 099
10,289
9,432
9, 692
9,973
10, 136
10, 232
10, 337
10, 358
10, 289
10, 084
9,915
9, 800
9,798
9, 838
-9, 980

Other Repair and
consumer moderni- Personal
zation
loans
goods
loans 3
paper J
1,088
1,620
298
1,009
182
816
2, 805
4, 337
1,006
4,270
3,235
1,090
1, 406
3,851
5, 328
4,307
1, 606
5, 605
5, 272
1,462
4, 047
4, 117
5, 333
1, 493
4, 164
5, 351
1, 516
4, 186
1,534
5, 362
5,352
4,201
1,562
4, 198
5,366
1,585
1, 604
5, 406
4, 218
1,606
4,307
5,605
4,278
1,587
5,495
5,377
4,289
1, 570
4,326
5, 220
1, 554
1,554
4,369
5, 188
5, 142
4, 387
1, 565
1,563
4, 445
5i 122

Noninstalment credit
Total
2, 719
3,203
6,323
6,631
7, 143
7,089
6,843
6, 776
6,577
6, 592
6,632
6, 680
6,666
7,089
6,681
6,327
6,251
6,421
6,588
6,669

Charge
accounts
1,414
1,612
3,006
3,096
3,342
3,249
2,763
2,781
2,705
2,668
2,716
2,811
2,840
3,249
2,893
2,550
2,438
2,566
2,639
2,679

J
Includes all consumer credit extended for the purpose of purchasing automobiles and other consumer goods and secured by the items purchased.
* Includes only such loans held by financial institutions; those held by retail outlets are included in "other consumer goods paper."
* Single-payment loans and service credit.
NOTE.—DetaD will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Source: Board of Governors pjf the Federal Reserve System.

28



Other •
1, 305
1,591
3,317
3,535
3,801
3,840
4,080
3, 995
3,872
3,924
3,916
3, 869
3,826
3,840
3,788
3,777
3,813
3,855
3,949
3,990

S AND 1NTEKEST KATES
During July, yields on both long-term public and private securities declined. On the other hand, the yield on
3-month Treasury bills continued the increase started in mid-June. The prime commercial paper rate dropped to a
new low for the year.
PERCENT PER ANNUM
3.5

PERCENT PER ANNUM
3.5

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

per annum]
U. S. Government security yields
Period

1939 .
... . .
1946..
1950
1951
1952
1953
1953: June
July
August
September
October
.. .
November
December
1954* January
February
- March
April
May
June
_
Julv
Week ended:
1954: Julv
3
.
10
17 _ _ _ _ _ _
24
31

August 7_

3-month
Treasury
bills J
0.023
.375
1.218
1.552
1. 766
1.931
2.231
2. 101
2.088
1.876
1.402
1.427
1. 630
1.214
. 984
..
1. 053
1. Oil
_ .„
. 782
.650
.710

.646
.671
.701
.731
. 800
. 797

Taxable bonds 2
Old series1
2. 19
2.32
2.57
2.68
2.93
3.09
2.99
3.00
2.97
2.83
2. 85
2. 79
2.68
2.60
2.51
2. 47
2.52
2. 54
2. 47
2. 51
2.49
2.46
2. 46
2.45
2.44

New series4

Corporate
Aaa bonds
(Moody's)

3. 16
3.29
3.25
3.22
3. 19
3.06
3.04
2. 96
2.90
2.85
2. 73
2. 70
2.72
2.70
2. 62

3.01
2.53
2.62
2.86
2.96
3.20
3.40
3.28
3.24
3.29
3. 16
3. 11
3. 13
3.06
2. 95
2.86
2.85
2.88
2.90
2. 89

0.59
.81
1. 45
2. 17
2.33
2.52
2.75
2. 75
2.75
2.74
2.55
2.32
2.25
2. 13
2.00
2.00
1.77
1.59
1.56
1.43

2. 67
2.64
2.62
2. 61
2. 60
2.59

2.90
2.90
2.89
2.88
2.88
2.87

1.56
1.56
1.38
1.38
1.38
1.38

on ni»w I.WUPS within period
» Bonds in thi? classification were first issued in March 1941.
Hircent bonds first callable after 12 years. Prior to April 1952, only bonds due or callable after 15 years were included.
»w«ni bonds of 1978-83, issued May 1,1953.
Source: Board of Governors of tbe Federal Reserve System.




Prime
commercial
paper,
4—6 months

29

MONEY SUPPLY
The increase of $1.7 billion in total deposits and currency during June brought the total increase since mid-1953 to
$8.7 billion. Most of the growth over the year occurred in time deposits. U. S. Government deposits were $2.6
billion above their level of a year earlier.
B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

225

225
TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY

TOTAL EXCLUDING U.S. GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS

DEMAND DEPOSITS ADJUSTED

TIME DEPOSITS

1941 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 5« 52 53

•>

f

1952

END OF YEAR

1953
END OF MONTH
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Total deposits and
currency

End of period
1939
1945
1946
.
1948
1949
,
...
1950
--1951
1952
. ..........
1%3
1953: Mav ....
June.. . . . . . . . .
Julv . . . . . . . . . . .
AUJ.MIH!
_.
S'-ph-mU'i
< MoU't
. , , . „ .
NiiVrmlM't
]W.riuht<l .

.

.

U»<V1 . . I n n u n n .
J'Vihnjfit v
Miirrh

Apiil
M*n
.I.IF,. *

. .J
. ..'

64.7
176.4
167.5
172.7
173. 9
180.6
189. 8
200.4
205. 8
195.3
196.6
201.3
201.1
201.1
201. 7
203.7
205.7
203.5
202.5
201.3
202.3
203.6
205. 3

[Billions of dollars]
Total excluding U. S. Government deposits
U.S.
(privately held money supply)
Government
Currency
Demand
Time
deposits *
Total
outside
deposits
deposits *
banks
adjusted s
6. 4
63. 3
1. 5
29. 8
27. 1
150.8
26.5
25.6
75. 9
48. 5
164. 0
26. 7
3. 5
83. 3
54 0
26. 1
169. 1
3.6
85. 5
57.5
169. 8
4. 1
25. 4
85, 8
58 6
176.9
3.7
25 4
92. 3
59 2
186. 0
3.9
26. 3
98 2
61 4
27. 5
194. 8
6ft R
5. 6
101. 5
27. 8
201. 3
103 3 1
7n i
4. 5
192. 1
27. 0
3.3
97. 5
67.6
27. 4
4.1
192.6
90. 9
68.3
193.0
27. 2 !
07. 4
8.3
68.4
193.4
27. 3
97. f,
7.7
68.7
:
27. 5
1)7. 7
194.3
6.8
69. 1
j
27. -1
100 : ,
4.4
197.3
69. 6
197. 4
27. 9
KM), l? ,
69. 3
6.2
r
200.9
28. 1
102 , » j
70. 4
4.8
199.8
3.7
20. 9
102. :*
70. 6
2<; 9
«.»•». r,
7i,o
197.4
5.0
20. '.»
«H» V
71. 7
195.2
6. 1
197.3
5.0
'0 V
us «.
72. 0
198.0
5.6
'0 *
UK V
72. 5
198. 7
6.7
''. 1
•'.*• .".
7,'i. 3

' ( i i i \ 4 - i t i ) i M - n i deposits at Federal Reserve banks aod commercial aud savii
ii»«l .ji p.ifliiK, oilier than interbank and U. S. GoTernment, less cash items in
.|.i!». in roinnuTcial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System,

i I*,
» \t:

30

K t a i l w in not Doccuarily add to totals because of rounding.




Source: Board uf U M V W I J « * » » t»l |J»*. I t

Hytlom.

FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES
Total budget expenditures increased in June, largely due to heavy interest payments at the end of the fiscal year.
Budget receipts also rose/ reflecting the quarterly income tax payments. The budget deficit for the fiscal year 1954
was $3.0 billion, compared to a deficit of $9.4 billion for fiscal 1953.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

TOTAL BUDGET EXPENDITURES

NET BUDGET RECEIPTS

75

50

25

25

1950

1951

1952

1953

1954

1955

1950

NATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAMS
75

1951

1952

1955

1953

BUDGET SURPLUS (+) OR DEFICIT (-)
(MAGNIFIED SCALE)

4.5

25 -

1950

1955

1950

1951

1952

1953

1954

1955

FISCAL YEARS

* ESTIMATED

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
surplus (+)
Net budget receipts Budget
or deficit ( — )

Budget expenditures
Period

Actual:
Fiscal year 1944» .. ..
Fiscal year 1947
Fiscal year 1948 . _
Fiscal year 1950
Fiscal year 1951
Fiscal year 1952 3
Fiscal year 1953s
Fiscal year 1954
_
Estimated:
Fiscal year 1955
Actual: *
1953: February
March
April
May
_ _ _ __
June
1954: February
_ -.
March
..
April _ _ _ _.
May
June.

Public
National security *
debt
CumulaCumulaTotal for tive fiscal Total for tive fiscal (end of8
CumulaCumulaperiod)
Total for tive fiscal Total for
year
tive fiscal period year totals period
period year totals period year
totals
totals
Total

95. 1
39.0
33. 1
39.6
44. 1
65.4
74.3
67.6

75.8
14.4
11.7
13.0
22.3
43.8
50. 1
45. 6

43.6
39.8
41.5
36.5
47.6
61.4
64.8
64.5

-51.4
+ .8
+ 8.4
-3. 1
+ 3. 5
4. 0
-9.4
— 3. 0

202.6
258.4
252.4
257.4
255.3
259.2
266.1
271.3

65.6

44.9

62.6

— 2. 9

273.1

5.4
6. 1
6.5
6.5
9.0
4.7
5.6
5.3
5.2
7. 1

46.3
52. 3
58.8
65.3
74.3
44.4
50.0
55.3
60.5
67.6

3.6
4.6
4,6
4.6
5.5
3.6
3.8
3.6
3.3
4.0

30.8
35.5
40. 1
44. 6
50. 1
30.9
34.7
38.3
41. 6
45. 6

4.9
10. 5
2.8
4.2
9.8
5.4
11. 4
2.8
3.6
10. 5

37.6
48. 1
50.9
55. 1
64.8
36.2
47.7
50.4
54.0
64. 5

-.5
+ 4.4
-3.7
-2.3
+ .8
+ .7
+ 5. 9
-2.5
-1.6
+ 3.4

-8.7
-4.2
-7.9
— 10. 3
-9.4
-8.2
-2.3
-4.8
-6.5
-3.0

267.6
264.5
2646
266.6
266. 1
274.9
270.3
271. 1
273.6
271.3

* Revised to include the items classified as "national security" in The Budget of The United States Government for the Fiscal Year Ending June SO, 1966. These
expenditure items are: Military services, foreign military assistance, development and control of atomic energy, and allocation of critical and strategic materials.
»Includes guaranteed securities, except those held by the Treasury. Not all of total shown is subject to statutory debt limitation.
* Beginning with February 1954, the reporting of budget receipts and expenditures has been changed to a basis consistent with that used in preparing budget
estimates. For comparative purposes, figures for fiscal 1953 are shown on a like basis.
NOTE.—Data for earlier months have not been published by the Treasury Department.
Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget.




31

FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM
AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC
The cosh deficit for the fiscal year ending in June was one-half billion dollars.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

25

25

CASH RECEIPTS
/
CASH PAYMENTS

u

-m — EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS-

113

1

I

EXCESS OF CASH PAYMENTS-

1952

1953

CALENDAR YEARS
COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars i

Federal cash
payments to
the public

41,441
44, 282
44, 922
41,346
42, 419
59, 278
71,339
70, 382

41, 399
38, 616
36, 897
42, 642
41, 969
58, 034
72, 980
76, 541

+42
4-5, 666
-f 8, 027
-1,295
+ 450
-hl,*244
-1, 641
-6, 159

21, 874
19, 389
15, 354
14, 722

16, 921
18.701
17, 921
19, 436

+ 4, 953
-f-688
—2, 567
—4, 715

..

22, 539
18, 674
15, 502
13, 667

18, 166
21,049
19,015
18,311

+ 4, 373
-2,375
-3, 513
-4,644

- -

23, 353
18, 987

16, 358
18, 342

-f6, 995
+ 645

Calendar year total;
1946
-._
3947
-._
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
.
Quarterly totals, not adjusted for seasonal variation:
1952: First quarter
Second Quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
-_ _ -.
1953: First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter _
Fourth quarter
1954: First quarter l 1
Second quarter

_ - --

- -

Excess of receipts (-f) or
payments ( — )

Federal cash
receipts from
the public

Calendar year

i Preliminary estimates.
NOTE.—"Detail ^iH not n»(WBRri)v «dd to totals because of roundinp.
Sources: Bureau of the Budget and Treasury Department.
For sale by tibe Superintendent of Document!. U. 8. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D. C.
Price 20 cents per copy : $2.00 per year; S2.50 foreign.

32



U. S. G O V E R N M E N T P R I N T I N G OFFICE: 1954