Full text of Economic Indicators : August 1954
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83d Congress, 2d Session Economic Indicators AUGUST 1954 Prepared for the Joint Committee on the Economic Report by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES G O V E R N M E N T PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1954 JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE ECONOMIC REPORT (Created pursuant to Sec. 5 (a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) JESSE P. WOLCOTT, Michigan, Chairman RALPH E. FLANDERS, Vermont, Vice Chairman RICHARD M. SIMPSON (Pennsylvania) HENRY O. TALLE (Iowa) GEORGE H. BENDER (Ohio) EDWARD J. HART (New Jersey) WRIGHT PATMAN (Texas) RICHARD BOLLING (Missouri) ARTHUR V. WATKINS (Utah) BARRY GOLDWATER (Arizona) FRANK CARLSON, (Kansas) JOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama) PAUL H. DOUGLAS (Illinois) J. WILLIAM FULBRIGHT (Arkansas) GROVER W. ENSLEY, Staff Director JOHN W. LEHMAN, Clerk COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS ARTHUR F. BURNS, Chairman NEIL H. JACOBY WALTER W. STEWART [PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S. L Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives oj the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Committee on the Economic Report be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Committee on the Economic Report; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23. 1949. Charts drawn by Graphics Unit, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce Contents THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY Page The Nation's Economic Accounts Gross National Product 1 2 PRICES Consumer Prices Wholesale Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers Stock Prices 3 4 5 6 EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES Labor Force Nonagricultural Employment—Selected Industries Average Weekly Hours—Selected Industries Average Hourly Earnings—Selected Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries PRODUCTION 7 8 9 10 11 ACTIVITY Industrial Production Weekly Production—Selected Indicators Production of Selected Manufactures Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment New Construction New Housing Starts Inventories and Sales Merchandise Exports and Imports 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 PURCHASING POWER National Income Corporate Profits Personal Income Consumer Income, Spending, and Saving Per Capita Disposable Income Farm Income 21 22 23 24 25 26 CREDIT, MONEY, AND FEDERAL FINANCE Bank Loans and Investments Consumer Credit Bond Yields and Interest Rates Money Supply Federal Buaget Receipts and Expenditures Federal Cash Receipts From and Payments to the Public « 27 28 29 30 31 32 ui THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF THE ECONOMY THE NATION'S ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS Economic activity as measured by over-all expenditures and incomes showed very little change during the second quarter ol 1954, according to current estimates. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES ANNUAL TOTALS CONSUMERS 300 250 . . , _ SAVING *—' 200 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I BUSINESS 100 INVESTMENT- EXCESS OF GROSS "RETAINED EARNINGS GROSS RETAINED EARNINGS!/ I I I I I I I GOVERNMENT-FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL EXCESS OF RECEIPTS RECEIPTS (LESS TRANSFER PAYMENTS) I 1942 I 1944 I ! 1946 I 1948 I I I960 I I 1952 I 1954 I 1951 I95E 1953 2, I 1954 lJ NET FOREIGN !NVESTM£NT AND GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT. I/ INCLUDES UNDISTRIBUTED CORPORATE PROFITS AND CORPORATE INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT, AND CAPITAL CONSUMPTION ALLOWANCES. I/ PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES. NOTE: THE SUM OF THE THREE INCOME AND RECEIPT ITEMS SHOWN IN THIS CHART IS NOT EQUAL TO THE SUM OF THE EXPENDITURES, OR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT, BECAUSE OF STATISTICAL DISCREPANCIES. FOR EXPLANATION AND USE OF THIS ARRANGEMENT, SEE SENATE REPORT NO. 1295, JOINT ECONOMIC REPORT, PP. 92-93, 9S-I05, AND THE ANNUAL ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JANUARY 1953, APPENDIX A. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS The decline in g^oss national product, which extended over the preceding 3 quarters, seems to have come to a halt in the second quarter of this year. A decline in Federal expenditures of $3.7 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) wcs offset by increases in consumption expenditures and private investment. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 400 ANNUAL TOTALS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES S_ 350 -GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT 300 250 250 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION., EXPENDITURES 150 7 •GOVERNMENT PURCHASES -OF GOODS AND SERVICES- 100 GROSS PRIVATE —-^ DOMESTIC INVESTMENT NET FOREIGN INVESTMENT 1 1944 i i 1950 1946 1952 1954 1953 1952 195! SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIt OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Personal Gross Total Net conprivate foreign sumpgross domestic national tion investinvestment product expendment itures Period 1939 1944 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 _- ._ _ ... _ . 91. 1 211. 4 209 2 232. 2 257. 3 257. 3 285. 1 .328 9 346. 1 364. 9 67.6 109. 8 146. 6 165. 0 177. 6 180. 6 194. 0 208. 3 218. 4 230. 1 9. 3 7. 1 27. 1 29. 7 41. 2 32. 5 51. 2 56. 9 50. 7 51. 4 0. 9 -2. 1 4. 6 8. 9 2, 0 .5 -2. 2 .2 -. 2 -1. 9 361. 369. 367. 360. 355. 356. 228. 230. 231. 229. 230. 233. 51. 9 55. 9 52. 4 45. 5 44. 5 45. 6 -1. 8 -3. 3 -1. 8 -. 6 — 1. 1 Government purchases of goods and services Federal Less: State National Total Governand Other Total 1 security local ment sales 13. 3 96. 5 30. 9 28. 6 36. 6 43. 6 42. 0 62. 8 77. 2 85. 2 5.2 89. 0 20. 9 15. 8 21. 0 25.4 22. 1 41. 0 54. 0 60. 1 1.3 88.6 21.2 13.3 16. 0 19. 3 18. 5 37. 3 48. 5 52. 0 3.9 1. 6 2. 5 3.8 5. 6 6. 6 3. 9 4. 2 5. 8 8. 5 0.0 1. 2 2.7 1.3 .5 .4 .3 .4 .4 .4 8.2 7.5 10.0 12.8 15. 6 18. 2 19.9 21. 8 23. 2 25. 1 7. 7 8.3 8. 4 9. 6 8.4 6.9 .5 .4 .4 .3 .3 .3 24. 9 24. 4 25. 1 26.2 26. 9 27. 0 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1953: First Quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1954: First quarter Second quarter _ __. . 8 9 2 5 8 0 6 8 2 7 5 1 -I. 0 83. 0 86. 6 85. 4 86. 0 81. 9 78. 3 58. 1 62. 2 60. 3 59. 8 55. 0 51. 3 51. 0 54. 3 52. 3 50. 6 46. 9 44. 7 i Includes expenditures for military services, international security and foreign relations (except foreign loans), development and control of atomic energy, promotion of the merchant marine, promotion of defense production and economic stabilization, and civil defense. For further details, see Annual Economic Report of the President, January 1954 (p. 167), and Survey of Current Business, July 1953 (p. 10). These expenditures are not comparable with the "national security" category in The Budget oftht 17. S. Government for the Fiscal Year Ending June SO, 1955, and shown on p. 33 of Economic Indicators. NOTE.—The national income and expenditure series have been revised by the Department of Commerce. For details see Survey of Current Business, July 1954. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. CONSUMER PRICES Consumer prices rose 0.1 percent between May and June. The tiny rise resulted mainly from an increase of 0.4 percent in food prices. For the first time in years, average rents were unchanged. INDEX, 1947-49*100 140 NDEX, 1947-49 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1947-49=100] Period 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1945 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average 1951 monthly average 1952 monthly average 1953 monthly average _ 1953: May.. J n ne July.. _ _ _ August September October November Decem ber 1954: January February . March _ _. April May .June ....... » Not available. All items Food 59.4 69.7 76.9 83. 4 102. 8 101.8 102.8 111.0 113. 5 114. 4 114.0 114. 5 114. 7 115. 0 115.2 115.4 115.0 114. 9 115. 2 115. 0 ] ] 4. 8 114. 6 115. 0 ] ] 5. 1 47. 1 61.3 68.9 79. 0 104. 1 100. 0 101.2 112. 6 114. 6 112. 8 112. 1 113.7 113. 8 114. 1 113.8 113.6 112.0 112. 3 113. 1 112. 6 112. 1 112. 4 113.3 1 1 3. 8 Housing Total Rent C11) C1) C1) C) 101. 7 103.3 106. 1 112.4 114. 6 117.7 86.6 90.4 90.9 91.4 100.7 105.0 108.8 113. 1 117.9 124. 1 123.0 123.3 123. 8 125. 1 126.0 126. 8 127. 3 127. 6 127. 8 127. 9 128. 0 128. 2 128. 3 1 28. 3 117. 1 117.4 117. 8 118.0 118.4 118. 7 118.9 118. 9 118. 8 118. 9 119. 0 118. 5 118.9 1 ] 8. 9 Apparel Transportation 52.5 64.9 76.3 83.7 103.5 99.4 98. 1 106.9 105.8 104. 8 104. 7 104.6 104.4 104.3 105.3 105. 5 105. 5 105.3 104. 9 104.7 104. 3 104. 1 104.2 104. 2 W C11) C1) C) 100.9 108.5 111.3 118.4 126.2 129.7 129.4 129.4 129.7 130. 6 130.7 130.7 130. 1 128.9 130.5 129.4 129. 0 129. 1 129. 1 128.9 Source: Department of Labor. Reading Other and Medical Personal goods and care recreacare tion services C1) C11) C) (') 100. 9 104. 1 106. 0 111. 1 117.2 121. 3 120. 7 121.1 121.5 121.8 122. 6 122.8 123.3 123. 6 123.7 124. 1 124. 4 124.9 125. 1 125. 1 0) 0)1 C) C1) 101.3 101. 1 101. 1 110.5 111.8 112. 8 112.8 112.6 112.6 112.7 112. 9 113.2 113.4 113. 6 113. 7 113.9 114. 1 112.9 113.0 112. 7 C1) C1) 0) « 100.4 104. 1 103.4 106.5 107.0 108.0 108.0 107.8 107.4 107.6 107. 8 108.6 108.9 108.9 108. 7 108.0 108. 2 106.5 106.4 106. 4 C1) 0) (')1 C) 100.5 103.4 105.2 109.7 115.4 118.2 118.0 118. 2 118.3 118.4 118. 5 119.7 120.2 120.3 120.3 120.2 120. 1 120.2 120. 1 120. 1 Increases in the prices of farm products and processed foods in July raised the wholesale price index slightly above the June level. INDEX, 1947-49* 100 120 INDEX, I 9 « ? - 4 9 « I O O 120 I960 1952 195! 1953 1954 (1947-49=1001 1942 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average 1951 monthly average 1952 monthly average 1953 monthlv average 1953: June July August Se pte mber October November December 1954: Januarv February March April May . June Julv Week ended: 1954: August 3 „ _. . .. .„ . Source: Department of Labor. . . . _ 64 2 104 4 99. 2 103 1 114. 8 111 6 110 1 109 5 110 9 110 6 111 0 110 2 109. 8 110 1 110 9 110. 5 110 5 111 0 110. 9 110. 0 110 4 59.2 107.3 92.8 97.5 113.4 107. 0 97. 0 95 4 97. 9 96. 4 98. 1 95. 3 93.7 94. 4 97.8 97.7 98. 4 99. 4 97. 9 94. 8 96. 2 59.1 106.1 95.7 99.8 111.4 108.8 104. 6 103.3 105.5 104.8 106.6 104. 7 103.8 104.3 106. 2 104.8 105. 3 105. 9 106.8 105. 0 106.4 Other than 'arm products and foods (industrial) 68.3 103.4 101.3 105.0 115.9 113.2 114.0 113.9 114.8 114.9 114.7 114.6 114.5 114.6 114. 6 114.4 114. 2 114.5 114. 5 114.2 114.3 109. 8 94. 9 104. 1 114.2 All commodities Period Farm products Processed foods PRICES RECEIVED AJMD FAIU JSX Prices received by farmers declined slightly during the month ended July 15. Decreases in the prices of beef cattle,, hogs, and deciduous fruits were largely offset by higher prices for commercial vegetables, milk, wheat, and eggs. Prices paid also declined slightly and the parity ratio remained at 88. INDEX, 1910-14 = 100 INDEX, 1910-14 « 325 500 275 —^ S /| -"PARITY INDEX {PRICES PAID, INTEREST, T A X E S , AND W&GE RATES) 250 225 125 _L 75 1949 1952 1951 i960 1953 - R A T I O OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO PARITY INDEX. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 75 1954 I COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS (1910-14=1001 Period 1939 monthlv average 1942 monthlv average _ 1944 monthlv average __ __ 1946 monthly average1948 monthlv average _ _ 1949 monthlv average 1950 monthlv average. _ 1 951 monthlv average, . _ _ . 1952 monthlv average... 1953 monthlv averago 1953: June 1 5 _ _ J u l v 15 August, 1 5 September 15 October 15 November 15 December 15 1954: January 15 l*Vbruarv 1 5 March 1 5 _ _ _ _ April 15__ _ __ Mav 15 June 15 Julv 15 J Vices paid for items used in Parity index (prices paid, Prices received Family living I Production and wage rates) by farmers 120 149 175 202 251 243 2-1 C» 268 271 270 271 271 273 270 270 270 270 271 271 272 273 276 276 277 ' 12] 148 173 191 250 238 24 6 273 274 253 247 250 249 247 246 248 250 254 255 255 256 256 252 247 Parity ratio J 287 250 258 302 288 258 257 260 255 257 249 249 254 77 105 108 113 110 100 101 107 100 92 93 94 91 93 90 90 91 282 282 259 258 92 91 283 283 284 282 280 256 257 258 248 247 123 152 182 208 260 251 256 282 287 279 277 278 279 277 276 277 278 2 95 159 197 2236 i Ratio of index of prices received by farmers to parity index. »Includes wartime subsidy payments paid on beef cattle, sheep, lambs, milt, and butterfat between October 1943 and June 1946. Source: Department of Agriculture. 51035—54 2 90 91 91 88 88 Stock prices continued upward in July. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS = 100! Composite index * Period Weekly average: 1940 . 1946— 1949 1950 _ 1951 1952 ... . 1953 _ _ 1953: June July August . . September October November December .. 1954: January. .. February March April May June Julv Week ended: 1954: Julv 2 9 16 23 30 August 6 2 _ _ Manufacturing Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Transportation Utilities Trade, finance, and service Mining 94.2 149. 4 127.7 154. 1 184.9 195.0 193.3 93.4 146.6 132. 1 165. 7 206.8 220.2 220. 1 92.5 138.6 116.0 150.2 178.5 188.8 192.6 94.2 154.5 147. 2 180.2 233. 1 249.3 245. 2 99.2 202.4 136.0 160.0 199.0 220.6 218. 7 99.9 121.0 98. 1 108.9 112.6 117.9 121. 5 90.4 204.3 160.7 183. 8 207.7 206.0 207.1 75.6 125.5 129.4 143. 5 204.9 275.7 240.5 187.3 190. 4 190.2 181.0 187.1 191.2 193. 4 198.4 203. 1 207. 1 215. 8 223.2 223.9 233.0 212.7 216. 7 216.6 205.0 213.5 218.7 221. 8 228. 4 233. 9 239. 8 252. 9 262. 9 263.4 275. 3 186.8 188.0 185.9 175. 2 184.4 190.4 192. 1 198.8 204. 2 209. 6 223. 2 •232. 5 236.6 254.3 236.4 242. 9 244. 7 232.2 240.2 244.8 249. 1 255.5 261. 2 267. 5 280. 3 290.8 288.0 294.4 219.2 223.2 217.2 198.9 202.4 203. 8 200.0 206.2 214.6 212.3 211. 6 220. 6 225.4 233. 5 116.6 118.9 120.7 118.8 121.4 123.2 124. 5 126. 1 128.4 130.4 131. 8 134.2 134.3 138.6 204.3 206.0 206.3 198.0 201.2 207.0 209. 2 213. 0 216.0 214. 6 219.8 225.6 228.3 236. 0 237.4 236.8 236.3 219.2 218.8 231.4 229. 6 238. 6 250.3 259.2 265. 9 269.6 266.3 257. 2 229. 2 232. 3 231. 7 234. 4 237. 5 234.8 271.4 275. 2 273. 0 276. 3 280. 8 276. 9 249. 1 254. 4 253. 1 256. 0 259. 1 255.7 291. 7 294. 1 291. 2 294. 7 300. 5 . 296. 2 226. 2 230. 7 234.4 236.8 239. 2 236.0 135. 3 137. 1 138.9 141. 0 140. 9 140.2 233. 5 235.3 235.9 235.8 239. 5 240.4 256. 0 257. 3 252. 6 258. 8 261. 3 255.9 i Includes 265 common stocks: 98 for durable goods manufacturing, 72 for nondurable goods manufacturing, 21 for transportation, 29 for utilities, 31 for trade, finance, and service, and 14 for mining. Indexes are for weekly closing prices. * Data became available after chart was prepared. " Source: Securities and Exchange Commission. EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES LABOR FORCE Unemployment was practically the same in early July as in early June and employment moved up a bit. Both developments conformed to the usual seasonal behavior. MILLIONS OF PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS 70 70 65 1954 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period 68-area sample : 8 1939 monthly average.. 1944 monthly average.. 1949 monthly average.. 1950 monthly average.. 1953 monthlv average.. 1953: June/ July August . Septe mber October November December 1954: January February . _ . 230-area sample: 5 1 954 : January February March _ .. April M ay June July 1 3 Total labor force (including armed forces) Employment l 55, 600 66, 040 63, 721 64, 749 67, 001 68, 290 68, 258 68, 238 67, 127 66, 954 66, 874 66, 106 65, 589 66, 905 Unemployment 3 Insured unemployTempo%of ment rary 3 Agricul- Nonagri- layoffs ^thousands4 Number civilian Total labor of cultural tural persons) force Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over 9,480 9,610 45, 750 17.2 36, 140 55, 230 670 1.2 8,950 54, 630 53, 960 45, 010 2,470 8,026 62, 105 3,395 5.5 185 50, 684 58, 710 1,599 3, 142 92 5.0 52, 450 59, 957 7,507 63, 099 1, 524 2.4 1,058 142 61, 929 6, 683 63, 453 55, 245 878 122 64, 734 2.4 63, 172 1, 562 55, 046 8, 126 913 144 2.4 63, 120 1,548 55, 292 7,828 64, 668 868 7,474 1,240 1.9 55, 934 170 63, 408 64, 648 830 7,262 141 62, 306 1,246 2.0 55, 044 63, 552 897 1, 162 62, 242 63, 404 133 7, 159 1.8 55, 083 1, 198 6,651 183 1, 428 2.3 55, 274 63, 353 61, 925 1,632 1, 850 60, 764 62, 614 3.0 55, 326 195 5,438 2, 205 2,359 273 54,433 5,345 59, 778 62, 137 3.8 2,362 5,626 60, 106 5.3 177 3,385 54, 480 63, 491 66, 292 67, 139 67,218 67, 438 67, 786 68, 788 68. 824 62, 840 63, 725 63, 825 64, 063 64, 425 65, 445 65, 494 Civilian labor force 59, 60, 60, 60, 61, 62, 62, 753 055 100 598 119 098 148 5,284 5,704 5,875 6,076 6,822 7,628 7, 486 54, 469 54, 351 54, 225 54, 522 54, 297 54, 470 54, 661 427 216 236 216 294 229 298 3,087 3, 671 3,725 3,465 3,305 3,347 3,346 4.9 5. 8 5.8 5.4 5. 1 5. 1 5. 1 2,205 2,362 2,389 2, 383 2,247 2,082 6 2, 037 Includes part-time workers and those with jobs but not at work for such reasons as vacation, illness, bad weather, temporary layoff, and industrial disputes. The number of temporary layoffs, which the Census Bureau includes in the employment figure (see footnote 1), is shown separately so as to afford a basis for fur8 ther 4analysis of employment and unemployment, See footnote 2. All programs. Weekly average for period. For description of series, see Labor Market and Employment Security, April 1954. 1 Pertains to labor force data only. Data prior to 1053 not compaiable with subsequent data. • Preliminary estimate, «j Sources: Department of Commerce (labor force) and Department of Labor (insured unemployment). «* EMPLOYMENT - SELECTED INDUSTRIES in July, employment fell seasonally in government and trade and somewhat more than seasonally in durable goods manufacturing. It continued to rise in finance, services, and construction. MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS DURABLE MANUFACTURING NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING P9541 J F M A M J J A S O N D J CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION F M A M J J M A tf, J J A S O N D S O N D WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE I J F A S O I 1 N J D F M A M J J A COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers Manufacturing Total Period Total 1939 1948 1949 1950 1951 . .__ 1952__ 1953 1953: June Julv August September, October- _ _ NovemberDecember1954: January February __ March April May June22 Julv 30, 287 44, 382 43, 295 44, 696 47, 289 48, 306 49, 660 49, 904 49, 716 49, 962 50, 200 50, 180 49, 851 50, 197 48, 147 47, 880 47, 848 48, 068 47, 935 48, 150 47, 861 10, 078 15, 321 14, 178 14, 967 16, 104 16, 334 17, 259 17,416 17, 336 17, 537 17, 510 17,301 16, 988 16, 765 16, 434 16, 322 16, 234 16, 000 15, 836 15, 888 15; 661 Durable Nondugoods rable goods 4,683 5,394 8,312 7,010 7,473 6, 705 8,085 6,882 7, 024 9,080 9, 340 6,994 10, 129 7,131 10, 301 7, 115 10, 190 7,146 10, 192 7,345 10, 145 7,365 10, 072 7, 229 9,897 7,091 9,773 6, 992 9, 591 6, 843 9,480 6,842 9,389 6,845 9, 260 6, 740 9, 152 6,684 9, 121 6, 767 8, 878 6, 783 Contract Wholesale Finance, construc- and retail service, tion trade etc. 1,150 2, 169 2, 165 2, 333 2,603 2, 634 2, 644 2, 711 2,768 2,825 2, 866 2,889 2, 789 2,632 2,349 2, 356 2,415 2,535 2, 634 2, 730 2,819 6,612 9, 519 9,513 9, 645 10,012 10, 281 10, 533 10, 473 10,414 10, 392 10, 523 10, 669 10, 828 11, 361 10, 421 10; 310 10, 305 10, 496 10, 375 10, 424 10, 381 4,703 6, 636 6,736 6,894 7, 140 7,380 7, 511 7,613 7,674 7,668 7,607 7,546 7,501 7,475 7,410 7,424 7,463 7,581 7, 644 7, 706 7; 771 Government (Federal, State, local) 3,987 5, 614 5,837 5,992 6,348 6,609 6, 645 6, 585 6,405 6,422 6, 590 6,692 6, 700 6,955 6,659 6,639 6,667 6, 699 6,701 6, 625 6, 469 Transportation and public utilities 2,912 4, 141 3,949 3,977 4, 166 4,185 4,224 4,260 4,283 4,274 4.265 < 257 4,216 4, 187 4,069 4,039 3,992 4,008 4.008 i 029 4,033 Mining 845 982 918 889 916 885 844 846 836 844 839 826 829 822 805 790 772 749 737 748 727 i Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonapricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the armed forces. 'Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonapricultural employment of the civilian labor force reported by the Department of Commerce (p. 7) which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes- and which are based 3 on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. Preliminarv estimates NOTE.—Beginning with 1951, data have been adjusted to first quarter 1953 benchmark levels. Source: Department of Labor 8 AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS - BBUWTISU IWUUBTKIHS The average workweek of factory production workers in July was 39.4 hours/ 0.2 hours less than in June. crease was less than usually occurs between June and July. The de- HOURS PER WEEK HOURS PER WEEK DURABLE MANUFACTURING NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING i^_ 0 <-«-_, l _! I ! I I I 1 ! I I I I 1 ! RETAIL TRADE BUILDING CONSTRUCTION I I I I I I I I I COUNCIL O^ ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Hours per week, for production workers or nonsupervisory employees] Manufacturing Period Total 3939 ___ _ 1943 MMC> 1948 1949 ] 950 1951 ] 952 1953 1953: June Julv A ugust September October November December . 1954: Januarv February M arch A priJ MAY . .lune 3"' .July ___ . . . . 37. 7 44. 9 40. 4 40. 1 39. 2 40. 5 40. 7 40. 7 40. 5 40. 7 40. 3 40.5 39. 9 40.3 40. 0 40. 2 39.4 39. 6 39.5 39.0 39. 3 39. 6 39. 4 Durable goods 38.0 46. 6 40. 2 40.5 39. 5 41. 2 41. 6 41.5 41.3 41.4 40.8 41. 1 40. 6 41.0 40. 6 40.8 40. 1 40. 2 40.0 39. 7 39.9 40. 0 39. 8 Nondurable goods 37.4 42. 5 40.5 39.6 38.8 39.7 39.5 39.6 39.5 39.7 39.6 39.6 39.0 39.3 39. 1 39.3 38. 5 38.8 38.8 38.0 38.5 39. 0 38. 9 Building construction Retail trade 32.6 as. 4 38. 1 '37. 3 36. 7 36.3 37.2 38. 1 37.0 37.8 37. 1 37.6 36. 1 37.7 36.7 36.3 33.9 36.0 36.4 36.5 2 36. 7 237.0 M s Preliminary estimates. '• Data bepinninp with Jannarv 104R are DOT. strictly comparable with those for earlier periods, 2 Data became available after chart was prepared. « N o t available. NOTE.—Bojnrminp with 195], data have beeD revised as the result of adjusting employment series to a more recent benchmark. Source: Department of Labor. (4) 42.7 40.3 40. 7 40.3 40.4 40. 5 40.2 39.9 39.3 39. 4 39.9 39.8 39. 1 38.9 38.8 39.2 39.0 39. 1 39. 1 39. 1 38. 9 39.4 nwuxxui £*/uxiM,Lni?iS • SELECTED INDUSTRIES Average hourly earnings in manufacturing in July were practically the same as in June. DOLLARS PER HOUR DOLLARS PER HOUR 2.00 2.60 1954 1953 •"EARNINGS IN CURRENT PRICES DIVIDED BY CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ON BASE 1953*100. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT Of LABOR. COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS | [For production workers or nonsupervisory employees] All manufacturing Period 1939 1943 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1953: June July August September October November . December 1 954 : January February March April Mav June 4 Julv* _ Current prices $0. 633 .961 1.086 1.237 1.350 1. 401 1.465 1.59 1.67 1.77 1.77 1. 77 1. 77 1. 79 1.79 1.79 1.80 „ 1. 80 1.80 1. 79 1. 80 1. 81 1. 81 1. 80 1953 prices l $1. 220 1. 485 1. 490 1.481 1.502 1.574 1. 630 1.64 1. 68 1.77 1.77 1. 76 1.76 1.78 1. 77 1.78 1.79 1.79 1. 79 1. 78 1.80 1. 80 1. 80 (5) Durable goods manufacturing Current prices $0. 698 1. 059 1. 156 1. 292 1. 410 1. 469 1. 537 1.67 1.77 1.87 1. 87 1. 88 1.88 1. 90 1.90 1. 89 1. 90 1.91 1. 90 1. 90 1. 90 1. 91 1. 91 1. 91 1953 prices l $1. 345 1. 637 1. 586 1. 547 1. 568 1. 651 1. 710 1.72 1. 78 1.87 1.87 1.87 1. 87 1. 89 1.88 1.88 1.89 1.90 1. 89 1.89 1.90 1. 90 1. 90 W Nondurable goods manufacturing Current prices $0. 582 .803 1.015 1. 171 1.278 1.325 1.378 1.48 1. 54 1.61 1.60 .61 . 61 .63 .62 .63 1.64 1. 65 1.65 1. 65 1. 65 1. 66 1. 66 1. 66 Building construction Current 1953 prices prices l $1. 121 $0. 932 1.252 1.241 1. 392 1. 478 1.402 2 1.681 1. 422 1. 848 1. 935 1.489 2. 031 1.533 2. 19 1. 53 2.31 J. 55 2. 48 1.61 1.60 2. 44 1. 61 2.47 1. 60 2. 49 1. 62 2. 52 1.61 2. 54 1. 62 2.55 2,57 1.63 1. 64 2.58 1. 64 2.59 1. 65 2.59 2. 58 1. 65 3 2. 58 1. 65 3 2. 58 1. 65 5 (s) () Retail trade Current 1953 prices prices l $1. 796 $0. 542 .679 1.935 2. 027 .893 2. 013 1.009 2 2. 056 1. 088 2. 174 1. 137 1. 176 2. 259 1.26 2.26 1. 32 2.33 1.40 2. 48 1.40 2. 44 1. 41 2.46 1.41 2. 48 1.42 2. 50 1.42 2. 52 1.42 2.54 1.39 2.56 2.56 1.43 1.43 2.58 1.43 2. 58 2.57 1.43 3 2. 57 1.45 3 2. 56 1. 546 5 () () 1953 prices 1 $1. 044 1.049 1.225 1. 208 1.210 1.278 1.308 1. 30 1.33 1.40 1. 40 1. 41 1. 40 1. 41 1.41 1. 41 1.38 1.42 1.42 1.43 1.43 1. 44 1. 45 (5) Earnings in current prices divided by consumer price index on base 3953=100. s4 Data became available after chart was prepared. 2 Date, beginning with January 1948 are not strictly comparable with those lor Preliminary estimates. 5 earlier periods. Not available. NOTE.—Beginning with 1951, data have been revised as the result of adjusting employment series to a more recent benchmark. Source: Department of Labor. 10 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES Average weekly earnings of factory production workers dropped 76 cents in July to $70.92, or 41 cents under the earnings of a year earlier. DOLLARS PER WEEK DOLLARS PER WEEK 85 100 I NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING RETAIL TRADE J953 PRICES [For production workers or nonsupervisory employees] All manufacturing Period 1939 _ _ . 1943. _ „ .. 1946... 1947 ... _ J948 1949 1 950 1951 1952 _ . _ . 1 953 1953: June Julv August Sept -Pin her Octobor November December. 1954: January February March April. M»v... June * July* Current prices _„ Durable goods manufacturing .Nondurable goods manufacturing Building construction Retail trade 1953 prices 1 Current prices 1953 prices * Current prices 1953 prices 1 Current prices 1953 prices1 Current prices $23. 86 $45. 97 43. 14 66.68 43.82 60. 11 59. 84 49.97 60.22 54. 14 54. 92 61.71 66.00 59.33 66. 71 64. 71 68.52 67.97 71. 69 71. 69 72.04 71.97 71. 33 71. 12 71.69 71.33 71.42 70.92 72. 14 71. 50 71.24 71. 60 72. 07 72. 36 70. 92 70. 43 70. 93 71. 28 70. 50 70. 71 70.20 70.06 70. 78 73. 13 71. 68 i 71. 25 R 70. 92 < $26. 50 49.30 46. 49 52. 46 57. 11 58.03 63. 32 69.47 73. 46 77.23 77.42 76. 70 77.27 77. 14 77.90 76. 73 77.52 76. 59 76.38 76. 00 75. 43 76. 21 76. 40 76. 02 $51. 06 76.20 63. 77 62. 83 63. 53 65.20 70. 43 71.62 74. 05 77.23 77.34 76.47 76.89 76.60 77.21 76.35 77.21 76. 06 76. 00 75.77 75. 28 75. 83 75. 94 C5) $21. 78 34. 12 41. 14 46.96 50. 61 51. 41 54.71 58.46 60.98 63.60 63.52 63. 76 63.76 63.57 63.67 63.73 64. 45 63. 53 64.02 64.02 62.87 63. 91 64. 74 64. 57 $41. 97 52. 74 56. 43 56.24 56. 30 57. 76 60. 86 60. 27 61. 47 63. 60 63.46 63.57 63. 44 63. 13 63. 10 63.41 64. 19 63. 09 63. 70 63. 83 62. 74 63. 59 64. 35 ( 5 'f $30. 39 48. 13 56.24 63. 30 2 68. 85 70.95 73. 73 81. 47 88.01 91. 76 92.23 91. 64 93. 62 90.97 95.76 93.59 93.29 87.46 93. 24 94.28 94. 17 3 94. 69 3 95. 46 (5) $58. 55 74.39 77. 15 75.81 2 76. 59 79.72 82.01 83.99 88.72 91. 76 92. 14 91.37 93. 15 90.34 94. 91 93. 12 92.92 86. 85 92. 78 94.00 93.98 3 94. 22 8 94. 89 (5) $23. 14 27. 36 36. 35 40. 66 43. 85 45. 93 47. 63 50.65 52. 67 55.02 55. 16 56.26 56. 12 55. 52 55.24 55. 10 54. 49 55.77 55.91 55.91 55.91 56. 41 57. 52 (5) 1953 prices * $44. 59 42.29 49.86 48. 69 48.78 51. 61 52.98 52. 22 53.09 55.02 55. 10 56. 09 55. 84 55. 13 54. 75 54.83 54.27 55. 38 55. 63 55.74 55.80 56. 13 57. 18 (5) 1 Karniuf,'.- in rurrrn! j u h v s divide] by consumer price index on base 1953=100. s Data became available after chart was prepared. ' JJuta biTHtnini' w i l l ) January 19-18 are not striclJy comparable with those for <6 Preliminary estimates. earlier period:-. Not available. NOIL.- Jiej'lnninj 1 w j j h jy»M, data have been revised as the result of adjusting employment series to a- more recent benchmark. Source: Department of Labor. 11 ritUUUUTlUlM ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION The industrial production index in June remained at the May levei of 124 (1947-49=100). indications are that the index continued steady in July/ as most industries showed about the usual seasonal declines. I N D E X , 1S47- 49 * I 00 175 INDEX, 1 9 4 7 - 4 9 = 100 175 100 IOO 1942 44 46 48 5 4 50 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J 1952 * PRELIMINARY SOURCE: J A S O N D J F M A M J * J A S O N D 1953 1954 ESTIMATES. BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS: [1947-49=100, seasonally adjusted] Total industrial production Period 1939 1943 _._ .. 1946 _. 1947 __ 1948 1949 1950 _ 1951 .. 1952 1953 .. 1953: May June . July August September October November December . 1954: January . February _ March April May 1 June i Preliminary estimates. 12 .... . . _ 58 127 90 100 104 97 112 120 124 134 137 136 137 136 133 132 129 126 125 125 123 123 124 124 Manufactures Minerals Durable Total 57 133 90 100 103 97 113 121 125 136 139 138 139 138 135 134 131 127 127 126 124 125 126 126 49 162 86 101 104 95 116 128 136 153 156 154 157 157 152 151 146 142 140 139 135 134 135 135 Nondurable 66 103 95 99 102 99 111 114 114 118 123 121 121 119 117 117 115 112 113 113 114 115 116 116 68 87 91 100 106 94 105 115 114 116 117 119 120 119 118 114 111 113 113 113 112 109 111 111 Source: Board of Governors of tlae Federal Reserve System. WEEKLY PRODUCTION - SELECTED INDICATORS The cutback in steel production and auto assemblies in July reflected the holiday and vacations, distribution continued to exceed the levels of a year earlier. Electric power MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS (DAILY AVERAGE) MILLIONS OF TONS 3 3 ONOMIC ADVISERS St<sel Period Thousands of net tons Weekly average: 1950 1951 1952 . 1953 1953: June Julv August. September . October . . No vem ber December 1954: Januarv7 February March April Mav June3 Julv _ Week ended : 1954: Julv 3 10 17. 24 31 August 7 :i 1A 3 . . . Percent of theoreticall capacity Electric power, Bituminous by utilities coal (thousands of (millions of kilowatt-hours) short tons) a Cars and trucks (number) 1,857 2,018 1,782 2, 141 2 192 2, 099 2, 123 2, 076 2, 136 2,026 1, 798 1, 795 1, 771 1, 646 ] 625 1, 687 1,716 1, 501 96. 9 100. 9 85 8 94. 9 97. 2 93. 1 94. 2 92. 1 94. 7 89.9 79 7 75. 3 74. 3 69 0 68 1 70. 7 72.0 63 0 6, 183 6, 958 7 451 8,244 8 279 8,238 8,488 8 352 8 331 8, 352 8, 502 8, 918 8 576 8 526 8 347 8 406 8,684 8 841 1, 687 1, 772 1, 548 1, 507 1 603 1, 540 1, 549 1 640 1, 503 1,496 1 466 1, 346 1, 226 1, 146 1 109 1 142 1, 314 1 182 154, 212 129, 828 106, 834 140, 551 150, 449 154, 329 147, 542 128, 375 140,317 103, 576 103, 511 138, 387 132, 416 136, 951 144 140 144, 496 128, 209 119, 768 ] 568 1, 430 ] , 534 1 557 1, 532 1 , 527 ], 519 65 8 00 0 8 825 $ 185 8, 951 9 103 9, ] 39 9, 059 1 455 i 068 1 2007 ] IS' 1,250 128 99 125, 122 123, 120, )4. 3 >5 3 V1. 2 H. 0 >3. 7 396 089 091 789 482 392 1 Percent of capacity based on weekly net ion capacity 011,900,268 for the first half of 195U, 1.928.721 beginning July ], ]'J!»50, 1,999,034 beginning January 1,1951, 2 ,077,040 bepimiinp January 1, 1952, 2,254,459 nepinniiif! January ], 1953, and 2,384,549 beginning January 3,1954." 2 Daily average for week. * Preliminary estimates. Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, and Ward's Automotive Reports. 51035—5-1 3 13 In June production of most durable and nondurable goods industries was about the same as in May. exceptions were an increase in steel output and a decrease in auto production. Important INDEX, 1947-49 = 100, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INDEX, 1947-49=100, SEASONALLY-ADJUSTED i i i i I I I I t M i t f i i i i i I i n 1 1 I i i i i i 1 1 i i i l l n 1 1 i I 50 I i I 1 i t t i I I i i i 1 1 I i i ii i I 1 1 i i I I 1 1 i 1 1 I i i 1 1 1 I i i 1 1 i 150 1954 1952 .'COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISIRS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. [1947-49=100, seasonally adjusted] Durable manufactures Primary metals Period 1939 1947 1948 1949___ 1950 1951 1952._ 1953 _. 1953: May June July August September October November December 1954: January February March. April Mav l . __ June . . . Lumber and products 53 103 107 90 115 126 116 132 80 101 106 93 113 113 111 118 139 137 136 137 130 128 122 113 111 109 103 103 106 109 119 114 119 116 114 117 115 110 115 120 116 114 121 1 Preliminary estimates. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 14 Transportation Machinery equipment 38 48 103 96 104 102 93 102 114 120 130 135 147 154 189 160 162 161 164 165 161 159 152 146 143 141 138 138 137 139 192 188 196 191 186 189 180 182 183 178 171 172 175 170 Nondurable manufactures and Textiles Petroleum Food beverage Chemicals and coal and and allied manuproducts apparel products factures 80 45 63 66 99 97 97 101 104 103 103 99 101 99 97 100 121 110 110 103 122 106 136 105 137 105 123 105 147 107 130 107 115 113 111 106 102 102 98 95 96 95 97 100 99 98 131 131 132 132 131 129 129 128 124 126 122 124 122 122 109 106 108 108 109 108 108 103 105 106 106 107 110 109 151 150 152 148 147 146 145 145 143 146 146 146 147 148 JT AXJ. V^IL J. JLi JL^VJ'J.YJ.l^O J. J.V/ ±1^1 V J-*O 1 The gross private domestic investment increased about $1 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) between the first and second quarters of 1954. New construction increased. The rate of inventory disinvestment was reduceds BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 70 70 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 60 50 ACROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 40 30 30 NEW CONSTRUCTION 20 20 10 CHANGE IN BUSINESS* INVENTORIES I 1942 I I 1944 I I 1946 I I 1948 ! I 1 1950 I 1952 I I 1954 J I I 1952 1951 J -_ \. I I SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE I I -10 1954 1953 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Total gross private domestic investment Period 1939 1 944 1946 _ _ _ 1947 1948 1949 _ _ _ 1950 1951 1952 1953 -_ _ - _ ___ 9.3 7. 1 27. 1 29.7 41.2 32. 5 51.2 56. 9 50.7 51.4 New construction Residential nonfarm Total 4.8 2.7 10.3 14. 0 17.9 17.5 22.7 23.3 23.7 25.5 2.7 .8 4. 0 6.3 8. 6 8.3 12. 6 11.0 11. 1 11. 9 Other Producers' durable equipment 2. 1 1.9 6.3 7.7 9.3 9.2 10. 1 12.4 12.6 13. 6 Change in business inventories 4.2 5.4 10. 7 16. 7 19. 1 17. 8 21. 1 23. 2 23.3 24. 4 0.4 -1.0 6. 1 -1.0 4. 2 -2.7 7.4 10.4 3.6 1. 5 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1953: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1954: First quarter Second quarter _ __ 51. 9 55.9 52.4 45. 5 25. 0 25. 9 25. 6 25. 7 11. 7 12.2 12. 1 11. 7 13.3 13.7 13. 5 13.9 24. 1 24. 4 24. 6 24.0 2.8 5.4 2.0 -4.2 44.5 45. 6 26. 0 27.0 11. 7 12.8 14.3 14.2 22.7 22.4 -4.2 -3.8 NOTE.—The national income and expenditure series have been revised by the Department of Commerce. For details see Survey of Current Business, July 1954. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. 15 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Business expenditures for new plant and equipment totaled $27.5 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of this year and were scheduled at a rate of almost $27 billion in the second and third quarters, according to a survey made in April and May. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL TOTALS 30 1945 1947 1949 1951 1953 1950 1954 I/ SEE NOTE 4 ON TABLE BELOW. SOURCES: SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Manufacturing Total J Period 1939 1945 1948 1949_ I960 1951 1952 3 1953 .... . 5. 51 a 69 22.06 19.28 20.60 25.64 26. 49 28. 39 Total 1.94 3.98 9. 13 7. 15 7.49 10.85 11. 63 12. 28 Transportation Mining Durable NonduraRailroads Other goods ble goods 0.76 1.59 3.48 2.59 3. 14 5.17 5. 61 5.82 1. 19 2.39 5.65 4.56 4.36 5.68 6.02 6. 46 0.33 .38 .88 .79 .71 .93 .98 1. 01 0.28 .55 1.32 1.35 1. 11 1.47 1. 40 1.31 Public utilities Commercial and other 3 0.52 .50 2.54 0.36 .57 1.28 .89 1.21 1.49 1. 50 1.46 3.31 3.66 3. 89 4.55 2.08 2.70 6.90 5.98 6.78 7.24 7. 09 7.78 1.38 1.38 1. 59 1.52 1. 47 1.27 1. 30 4. 40 4. 64 4.72 4. 46 4.29 4. 44 4. 53 7.4; 7.9! 7.9^ 8. Oi 7.87. 9i 8.21 a 12 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1953: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1954: First quarter 4 Second quarter4 Third quarter 27.84 28.48 28. 92 28. 56 27.48 26. 94 26.79 12.35 12.26 12. 30 12. 22 11.87 11.42 11. 02 5.98 5. 88 5. 76 5. 69 5. 50 5. 54 5.09 6.36 6.38 6. 54 6.53 6. 37 5.87 5.94 .96 .93 1.06 1. 10 .95 .98 1. 04 1.34 1.34 1.30 1. 26 1.06 .86 .70 1 Excludes agriculture. Commercial and other inclcdes trade, service, finance, communications, and construction. 3 Annual total is sum of seasonally unadjusted quarterly expenditures; it does not necessarily coincide with average of seasonally adjusted figures, in part because of adjustments when necessary for systematic tendencies in anticipatory data. * Estimates based on anticipated capital expenditures as reported by business in April and May 1954. NOTE.—These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources; Securities and Exchange Commission and Department of Commerce. 2 16 ISf&W UUJNSTKUUTIUB1 New construction expenditures, seasonally adjusted, remained at a monthly rate of above $3 billion during July. The total for the first 7 months of this year reached a new high and was about 3 percent above the corresponding period of 1953. The increase occurred almost entirely in private building. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ilLLlONS OF DOLLARS 1 3.5 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ^TOTAL CONSTRUCTION 3.0 3.0 •TOTAL PRIVATE 2.0 2.0 1.5 PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL (NONFARM) OTHER PRIVATE FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL I I ! I I I I 1952 I I ! I I I 1954 1953 SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF LABOR. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthlv average 1 948 monthly average 1949 monthlv average 1950 monthly average. . _» . _ 1951 monthlv average 1952 monthly average 1953 monthlv average _ _ _ _ 1953: June___ . Julv August September October November December 1954: Januarv February March _. April > Mav June _ _ Julv 2 Total new construction 683 1,173 438 1,000 1,806 1 , 899 2, 371 2, 598 2. 751 2,938 2, 961 2; 916 2, 883 2, 925 2,880 2, 936 2, 955 2,956 3, 050 3, 001 3. 025 3, 066 3, 069 3. 085 i Includes public residential construction. Private construction Total Residential Other (nonfarm) private 142 223 366 142 143 285 114 182 68 469 803 335 689 1, 404 715 676 689 1 , 365 1, 788 738 1,050 1, 814 914 899 1, 842 917 925 996 994 1, 990 1,001 2, 032 1,031 993 2, 008 1, 015 995 2? 000 1, 005 999 995 1, 994 ], 982 1,003 979 1, 026 2, 002 976 1, Oil 1, 992 981 1,021 1. 992 971 1. 032 972 2, 004 2, 017 981 1,031 1,032 2, 063 1, 035 2, 1 ] 6 1. 081 1, 027 2, 112 1,085 2. 152 1. 114 1. 038 liose Federal, State, and local l 317 888 256 197 402 534 583 785 908 948 929 908 883 931 898 934 963 964 1,046 984 962 950 957 933 * Preliminary estimates. Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Labor. 17 NEW HOUSING STARTS Nonfarm housing starts rose 12 percent in June to a total of 120,000, the peak month thus far this year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, private starts were at an annual rate of 1,206,000 units, well above the rate for any June since 1950, and greater than any month since January 1951. THOUSANDS OF UNITS 150 I THOUSANDS OF UNITS 1150 NEW NONFARM DWELLING UNITS 50 I L SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF L A B O R . COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS All new nonfarm housing units started Period Total Annual totals: 1949 > 1950 1951_ 1952. 1953 MonthJv average: 1949 1950 1951 . 1952 1953 1953: May . June July August . September October November December 1954: January February March April 22 Mav _. June2 ._ _ 1, 025, 100 1, 396, 000 1, 091, 300 1, 127, 000 1, 103, 800 85, 400 116,300 90, 900 93, 900 92, 000 108, 300 104, 600 96, 700 93, 200 95, 100 90, 100 81, 500 65, 800 66, 400 75, 200 95, 200 111, 000 107,000 120; ooo Public 36, 300 43, 800 71, 200 58, 500 35, 500 3,000 3,600 5,900 4, 900 3,000 2,700 2,600 300 1,000 3,000 C1) 1,600 1,300 1,300 liSOO 2, 000 1,200 500 4,400 Private 988, 800 1, 352, 200 1, 020, 100 1, 068, 500 1, 068, 300 82, 400 112,700 85, 000 89, 000 89, 000 105, 600 102, 000 9ft, 400 92, 200 92, 100 90, 100 79, 900 64, 500 65, 100 73, 900 93, 200 109, 800 106, 500 115, 600 Seasonally adjusted annual rates: private 1, 065, 000 1, 064, 000 1, 015, 000 988, 000 1, 014, 000 1, 050, 000 1, 077, 000 1, 060, 000 1, 056, 000 1, 152, 000 1, 130, 000 1, 136; 000 1, 074, 000 1, 206, 000 i Less than 50. 2 Preliminary estimates. 18 -^ OTE.—Data beginning with January ]954 are based upon a revised method of estimating housing stflrts. In addition, revised seasormHndexes have j^een Source: Department of Labor. applied in computing seasonally adjusted annual rates of private housing starts from January 1946 forward. INVENTORIES AND SALES Total June sales were about $800 million (seasonally adjusted) higher than a month earlier, with increases occurring at both the manufacturers' and distributors' levels. Manufacturers' new orders rose slightly. A decline of $400 million in total manufacturing and trade inventories during June brought the total decline for the first 6 months of this year to $2.1 billion. Most of the decrease during the half year occurred in stocks of durable goods manufacturers. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, SEASONALLY TOTAL* AND MANUFACTURING ADJUSTED RETAIL i INVENTORIES • 1S5I I952 INDEX, IS-47-4S- 100, SEASONALLY I953 ADJUSTED 140 IS54 1953 1954 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS. Period Manufacturing and trade ] InvenSales 3 tories 2 Retail Inventories 2 Department, stores Manufacturing Inventories 2 Sales 8 Sales s New orders3 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted 1939 _ 1946 1948 1949 . 1950 1951 1952 1953 1953: Mav June Julv August September October November December 1954: January - . . February. March April Mav June 66 . _ _ Julv 20, 051 42, 892 55,612 52, 111 64, 721 5 75, 268 77, 109 81, 072 79, 678 80, 167 81, 116 81, 586 82, 000 81, 805 81, 276 81, 072 80, 688 80, 390 80, 093 79,516 79, 372 78, 957 5, 534 11,852 15, 828 15.311 IS. 652 6 2I,239 21, 592 22, 661 22,455 22, 294 22, 743 22, 775 22, 924 22, 720 22, 437 22, 663 22, 521 22,421 22, 563 22, 690 22, 804 22, 600 10, 802 27, 150 36, 438 34, 664 39, 917 6 44, 821 46, 080 48, 817 49, 395 50, 003 50, 398 48, 138 48, 652 48,284 47, 518 47, 209 46, 450 46, 714 47, 094 47, 636 46, 914 47, 700 i 11,465 24,457 31, 693 28, 800 34,314 42, 904 44. 190 46,722 45, 673 46, 160 46,485 46, 888 47, 087 47, 044 46, 909 46; 722 46, 382 46, 115 45, 774 45, 183 44, 798 44; 504 3,503 8, 541 10, 877 10, 893 11, 974 5 13, 185 13, 674 14, 234 14, 424 14,412 14,469 14, 073 13, 082 14,040 14, 104 13, 932 13,622 13, 972 13,900 14,242 14, 044 14, 439 ! 5, 112 12, 617 17, 630 16,416 19, 285 22, 205 23, 046 25, 271 25, 816 25, 882 26, 366 25, 067 25, 379 25,010 24, 256 24, 126 23, 902 23, 620 24, 064 24,418 23, 978 24, 176 5,354 13, 694 17, 350 15, 903 20, 980 24, 391 23, 710 23, 846 25, 883 25, 152 24, 525 22,339 22, 661 22, 163 21,594 22, 026 20, 749 22,016 22, 859 23, 017 22, 819 22, 877 InvenSales 3 tories * Index 1947-49=100, seasonally adjusted 35 77 107 100 109 129 118 126 127 128 130 131 128 128 127 123 120 119 121 120 121 122 35 90 104 98 105 109 110 112 117 115 113 112 107 110 113 112 107 109 105 111 108 112 115 5 New series on retail trade beginning with 1951; not comparable with previous Also includes wholesale, not shown separately in this table. data. See Survey of Current Business, September and November 1952. for detail. Book value, end of period. fi Preliminary estimates. i4 Monthly average for year and total for month. Book value, end of period, except annual data, which are monthly averages. Sources: Department of Commerce and Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System. 1 8 19 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS Commercial exports declined in June for the second consecutive month/ whiie imports rose substantially. However, for the first 6 months of this year, commercial exports were 3 percent above, and imports were 7 percent below, their levels in the corresponding period last year. The export surplus decreased in June. j MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,600 M I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS 1,600 MONTHLY AVERAGES TOTAL MERCHANDISE EXPORTS 1,200 1 TOTAL MERCHANDISE IMPORTS I/ SEE FOOTNOTES I AND 2 ON TABLE BELOW. SOURCES : DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND DEPARTMENT OF D E F E N S E . COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Merchandise exports Period Total 1936—38 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1948 monthly average . 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average 1951 monthly average _ 1952 monthly average 1 953 monthly average „ 1953: May June July August . September October November December 1 95-1 • .1 ,»i rnifirv February Miirch ' A t > i il \\\\\ Jinn 20 !-.•«!»* _ __ J 247 812 1,054 1,003 856 1,253 1,266 1, 314 1,453 1,384 1 5 358 1, 186 1,256 1,253 1, 247 1,353 1,092 1, 182 1, 124 1,425 ], 399 1. 474 Grant-aid shipments 2 Excluding grant-aid shipments 54 757 24 89 166 293 368 372 398 275 205 234 216 215 169 184 203 167 264 359 833 1, 164 1, 100 1,021 1,085 1,013 960 911 1, 051 1, 019 1, 030 3, 337 922 997 920 1. 258 1. 134 3, 114 Merchandise imports Excess of e xports i (/ )\( + ) or impc rts Total 207 412 594 552 738 914 893 906 902 933 908 840 926 814 849 907 833 809 858 958 829 947 4-40 -1-400 4-460 4-452 4-118 4-339 4-373 4-408 4-551 + 451 4-450 4-346 4-330 4-440 4-398 + 446 + 259 + 372 + 266 + 468 + 570 + 527 Excluding grant-aid shipment* + 345 + 95 + 250 + 207 + 115 + 183 + 80 + 52 + 71 + 126 + 206 + 182 + 231 + 90 + 188 + 63 + 301 + 306 + 167 it-rud projrrarnF: for some of these programs separate data are not available. Uopartnu'Di of D«'f»'nsp shipmonts of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Mutual Security he p j n r r j i n j (Ju)y-])t'ccmlH!r ]050) amounted to 282 million collars. j=*tiuHh H<1<1 tu of rounding. Sources: Department of Commerce and Department of Defense. PURCHASING POWER NATIONAL INCOME National income rose slightly between the first and second quarters of this year, according to current estimates. Proprietors' income declined slightly due to a fall in farmers' income. Other major components moved up a trifle. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 350 350 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 300 NATIONAL INCOME 250 250 -COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES 150 PROPRIETORS'AND RENTAL INCOME 50 CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT 1942 1944 1946 1946 I960 1952 1954 195! < =F 1952 J/ 1953 -'PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (EXCEPT AS NOTED). 1954 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Total national income Period 1939 1944 . _ _ _ _ _ 1946_ 3947 . 1948 1949 1950 1951 ___ 1952 1953 __ 72. 8 182. 6 179. 6 197. 2 221. 6 216. 2 240. 0 277. 0 291. 0 305. 0 Compensation of employees 48. 1 121. 3 117. 7 128. 8 140. 9 140. 9 154. 3 180.4 195. 4 209. 1 Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Proprietors' (business, professional, farm) and rental income Net interest 14. 4 35. 0 41. 5 40. 9 45. 6 42, 0 44. 6 49. 9 49. 9 49. 0 4. 6 3. 3 3. 1 3. 8 4. 5 5. 2 5. 9 6. 8 7. 4 8.4 Total 5. 7 23. 0 17. 3 23. G 30. 6 28. 1 35. 1 39. 9 38. 2 38. 5 Profits before taxes 6. 4 23. 3 22. 6 29. 5 32. 8 26. 2 40.0 41. 2 37. 2 39.4 Inventory valuation adjustment -0. 7 o ~5". 3 -5. 9 2. 2 1. 9 4 9 -1.3 1.0 -1. 0 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1953: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1954: First quarter _ Second quarter 305. 9 308. 2 306. 2 299. 9 298. 9 1 299. 6 206. 2 210. 0 211. 4 208. 8 206. 4 206. 6 50. 3 48. 9 47. 8 49. 1 49. 4 49. 0 ; 7. 9 8. 3 8. 6 8. 9 9. 0 9. 1 41. 4 41. 0 38.3 33. 1 34. 1 '34. 9 42. 4 41. 9 40. 9 32. 5 34. 5 134.5 g — '. 9 -2. 6 .6 —. 4 .4 1 Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers. NOTE.— The national income and expenditure series have been revised by the Department of Commerce. For details see Survey of Current Business, July 1954. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce (except as noted). 21 CORPORATE PROFITS Corporate profits, both before end after taxes, in the first half of this year were well below a year ago. of the excess profits tax contributed to the relatively favorable showing of profits after taxes. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 Abolition BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 60 ^1954 ALLOWANCE FOR INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT. ^PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ( E X C E P T AS NOTED). COUNCH Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Corporate profits before taxes Period Corporate tax liability Corporate profits after taxee Total 5.0 10. 4 13. 4 18. 2 20.3 15. 8 22. 1 18. 7 17.2 18. 3 Dii'idend payments 3. 8 4. 7 5.8 6. 5 7. 2 7. 5 9.2 9. 1 9. 1 9. 4 Undistributed profits 1.2 5. 7 7. 7 11. 7 13. 0 8.3 12. 9 9. 6 8. 1 8.9 6. 4 23.3 22. 6 29. 5 32. 8 26.2 40. 0 41. 2 37.2 39. 4 1. 4 12. 9 9. 1 11. 3 12. 5 10. 4 17. 8 22. 5 20.0 21. 1 1953: First quarter Second quarter _ Third quarter _ _ _ Fourth quarter 42. 4 41. 9 40. 9 32. 5 22. 7 22. 5 21. 9 17. 4 19. 7 19. 5 19.0 15. 1 9. 1 9.3 9. 5 9. 6 10. 6 10. 2 9. 5 5. 5 1954: First quarter l Second quarter 34. 5 34.5 17. 0 17.0 17. 5 17.5 9. 6 9.6 7. 9 7.9 1939 1944 1946___ 1947 1948- -_ 1949 1950_._ 1951 1952__ 1953 _ Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1 Preliminary estimates by Council of Economic Advisers. NOTE.—See p. 21 for profits before taxes and inventory valuation adjustment. The national income and expenditure series have been revised by the Department of Commerce. For details see Survey of Current BtisinesSj July ]954. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Scarce; Department of Commerce (except as noted). 22 Personal income is estimated at an annual rate of $286.4 billion (seasonally adjusted) in June, which mark as very slight advance over May. None of the major components changed significantly. The total for the first half of this year was at an annual rate of $285.3 billion, compared with $284.8 in the corresponding period of 1953. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 250 LABOR INCOME* 150 100 BUSINESS, PROFESSIONAL, AND RENTAL INCOME FARM PROPRIETORS' INCOME 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 Period _ 72. 9 165. 7 208. 7 206. 8 227. 1 271. 2 286. 1 1953: Mav June July . August September October November December 1954: January __ _ February March__ April Mav . June 8. . . . . _ 286.3 287.3 288. 2 286.4 287. 7 287.8 287. 2 287. 0 284. 9 285. 0 285. 0 284. 4 286. 2 286. 4 1939 1944 _ 1948 1949 1950 1952 1953 1954 1952 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. Total personal income 195! [Billions of dollars] Proprietors' income Labor income Dividends (wage and Business, salary disand professional, personal bursements Farm and rental and other interest income labor income) 9.6 10. 0 4.3 46. 6 10.8 118. 5 23.5 11. 5 28.8 16. 2 16. 7 137.9 17.2 12. 7 29.3 137. 4 19. 8 13. 3 31.3 150. 3 14.2 35.7 21. 4 190. 6 22. 8 12. 2 36.8 204. 4 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 22.6 12. 0 36.8 205. 3 22. 8 206.2 36.8 12.0 23.0 36. 7 207.8 11.2 36.6 23. 2 10. 1 207. 1 23. 4 12. 1 36.8 205. 7 23.5 36.7 205. 7 11. 3 23. 7 12.2 36.9 204. 5 23.8 36.8 202. 7 13.4 23. 9 36.4 201. 3 13. 2 23. 9 201.3 13.2 36. 4 23.9 36.4 201. 1 12. 5 24. 0 36. 7 200. 9 11. 5 24.0 36. 8 201. 6 12.6 24. 1 201. 8 12. 4 36. 9 Transfer pay men ts 2 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance l 3.0 3. 6 11. 3 12.4 15. 1 13. 1 13. 8 0. 6 2.2 2. 2 2.2 2.9 3.8 4. 0 13. 6 13. 6 13. 6 13. 6 13. 7 14. 6 13. 9 14. 4 14.8 15. 0 15. 8 15. 9 15. 8 15. 8 4.0 4. 1 4. 1 4. 1 4. 0 4.0 4.0 4. 1 4.7 4.8 4. 7 4. 6 4.6 4. 7 1 Social insurance contributions of employees arid, begin nip? January J Includes $2.7 billion National Service Life Insurance dividend, most 1 1952, of self-employed persons. of which was paid in the first half of the year. Preliminary estimates. NOTE.— The national income and expenditure scries have been revised by the Department of Commerce. For details see Survey of Cunent Business, July 1954. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. 23 CONSUMER INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVING Disposable persona! income rose somewhat during the second quarter, according to current estimates. Consumer spending for both goods and services rose rather substantially. As a result the rate of personal saving fell to 7.8 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 — £50 100 50 '1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1954 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC-ADVISERS Less : Personal Personal and Disposincome tax able nontax personal payments income Period ... 72, 9 165. 7 178. 0 190. 5 208. 7 206. 8 227. 1 255. 3 271. 2 286. 1 2.4 18. 9 18.8 21. 5 21. 1 18. 7 20. 9 29. 3 34. 4 36. 0 Billions 1953: First quarter _ __ Second quarter Third quarter _ _ _ Fourth quarter _ _ _ 1954" First quarter Second quarter . 283.3 286.4 287. 5 287. 3 285. 1 285. 7 35. 5 35. 9 36. 3 36. 1 32. 8 32. 9 1939 1944 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 _ ._ _ Equals : _ - Less: Personal consumption expenditures Total Net saving as percent of disPersonal net posable NonDurable durable Services saving income goods goods Billions of dollars 25.8 35. 1 67. 6 6.7 70. 4 37. 7 65. 4 6. 8 109. 8 146. 8 84. 5 46. 2 146. 6 15. 9 159.2 93. 1 51. 3 20. 6 165. 0 169. 0 98.7 56. 7 22.2 177. 6 187. 6 96. 9 60. 1 180. 6 23. 6 188. 2 100. 4 65. 0 194. 0 28. 6 206. 1 70. 1 111. 1 208. 3 27. 1 226. 1 116.0 75.6 26. 8 218. 4 236. 9 118. 9 230. 1 29. 7 81. 4 250. 1 of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rates 79.4 30. 4 118. 8 228. 6 247. 8 80.9 119. 6 230. 8 30. 3 250.4 82. 3 118. 6 30. 3 231. 2 251. 2 83.0 28.0 118. 7 229. 7 251.2 118. 8 28.0 83. 6 230. 5 252. 3 120.0 84. 3 28. 8 233. 1 252.9 Equals: 2, 9 36. 9 12. 6 4.0 10. 0 7. 6 12. 1 17. 7 18.4 20. 0 4. 1 25. 2 7.9 2. 4 5.3 4. 0 5. 9 7. 8 7. 8 8.0 19.2 19. 6 20. 0 21. 5 21. 8 19. 7 ! 7. 7 7. 8 8. 0 8. 6 8. 6 7. 8 NOTE.—The national income and expenditure scries have been revised by the Department of Commerce. For details see Survey of Current Business, July 1954. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Department of Commerce. 24 1JMUOME UAF1TA Per capita disposable income in the second quarter of this year remained at the same level as in the two preceding quarters, accordins to current estimates. DOLLARS DOLLARS 2,000 £,000 ANNUAL AVERAGES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1,500 1,500 CURRENT PRICES 1,000 1,000 500 500 1942 1946 1944 1948 lj SEE NOTE 2 ON TABLE SOURCES: 1950 195! 1952 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS ADVISERS. Total disposable personal Per capita disposable personal income (dollars)1 income (billions of dollars)1 Period 1953 prices 2 Current prices 1939 1944 - _ __ 1946 -_ _ 1947 1948 1949 ._ _ 1950 1951 1952 1953 _ _ __ -_ ... ... 1954 1953 BELOW. . _ ___ _ _ 70. 4 146. 8 159.2 169.0 187. 6 188.2 206. 1 226. 1 236. 9 250. 1 135. 6 223. 4 218.4 202. 4 208. 7 211. 5 229. 3 233. ] 238. 8 250. 1 Current prices 537 1,061 1, 126 1, 173 I! 279 1, 261 1, 359 ], 465 1, 509 1, 567 1953 prices 8 Population (thousands) 3 1,035 1, 615 1,545 1,405 1,423 1,417 1, 512 1. 510 1, 521 1^567 131, 028 138, 397 141, 389 144, 126 146, 631 149, 188 151, 683 154, 360 157, 022 159, 629 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 1953: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter _ Fourth quarter _ 1954: First quarter Second quarter. . _ _. . 247, 8 250. 4 251. 2 251. 2 249. 5 251. 2 250. 0 249. 7 1,561 1, 572 1, 570 1,563 1,572 1, 577 1,562 1, 554 158, 714 159, 306 160, 022 160, 764 252. 3 252. 9 251. 0 251.9 1, 563 1, 560 1, 555 1, 554 161,436 162. 078 1 Income less taxes. 28 Dollar estimates in current prices divided by consumer price index on base 1953=100. Includes armed forces overseas. Annual data as of July 1; Quarterly data centered in the middle of the period, interpolated from monthly figures. NOTE.—The national income and expenditure series have been revised by the Department of Commerce. For details see Survey of Current Business, July 1954. Sources: Department of Commerce and Council of Economic Advisers, 25 FARM INCOME During the first 6 months of 1954, farmers received on the average $2.1 billion per month from cash marketings and Government payments, about 2 percent below the same period of 1953. Livestock receipts were down about 1 percent. Crop receipts were about 4 percent lower. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 5 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 5 1954 "COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 1939 monthly average 1942 monthly average 1944 monthly average 1946 monthly average 1948 monthly average 1949 monthly average 1950 monthly average, 1951 monthly average 1952 monthly average 1953 monthly average 1953; May. . June July August _. September. October November December 1954 1 January . February March April May. June 3 26 Parity index Farm income Farm income (prices paid, (millions of Period interest, taxes, (millions of 3 current and wace rates) 1953 dollars) dollars) 1953 = 100! 1, 625 715 44 1,345 2, 491 54 . . . . . 1,763 2,712 65 2, 111 2, 815 75 2,539 2,730 93 .. 2,344 2, 604 90 2,591 2,384 92 2, 757 2,730 101 .... .. .. . 2,721 2, 642 103 2,599 2,599 100 2,009 ... 2, 009 100 2, 156 2, 178 99 2,404 2, 404 100 2,461 2,461 100 3, 201 3, 169 99 3, 737 3, 700 99 3, 443 3, 478 99 2,986 2,986 100 2, 629 101 2,603 1,941 1, 960 101 . . _. . _ 1,994 2, 014 101 1,914 I, 895 101 .. . . . 2,022 2,062 102 . _ _ _ 2, U6 101 2, 178 » Converted from the reported base, 1910-14=100, to the base 1953=100. • Farm income to current dollars divided by parity index on base 1953=100. • Preliminary estimate. Nom—Farm income Includes cash receipts from marketings and Government payments. Source; Department of Agriculture. CREDIT, MONEY, AND FEDERAL FINANCE BANK LOANS AND INVESTMENTS Total loans and investments of commercial banks rose $600 million in June. Investments accounted for practically all of the increase. Loans, on the average, changed very little, with a sharp rise during the first half of the month being offset by a decline in the last half. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 175 175 1939 1945 1950 1951 1952 1952 END OF YEAR 1953 END OF MONTH COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS End of period 1939 . 1945 1947 .. 1949 1950 1952 1953 _ _ 1953: May June. . July August September. October November December. 1954: January. . February March April M av June 2 Jnlvz Total loans and investments -> - __ 40.7 124. 0 116. 3 120.2 126.7 141.6 146.4 138. 1 138.0 143.2 143. 1 143. 0 144. 0 145.5 145.7 145.3 144.9 142. 8 144. 1 145. 7 146. 3 [Billions of dollars] A1J commercial banks Investments Loans 17.2 26. 1 38. 1 43. 0 52. 2 64. 2 68.3 65.4 65.0 65.6 66.0 66.3 67. 1 67.2 67.6 66.5 66. 9 67.0 66.8 67. 1 67.2 Total 23.4 97.9 78.2 77.2 74.4 77.5 78. 1 72.7 72.9 77.6 77. 1 76. 7 76. 8 78.3 78. 1 78. 9 78.0 75.7 - 77.4 78.6 79. 1 U.S. Government securities 16.3 90.6 69.2 67.0 62.0 63. 3 63.6 58.3 58.6 63.2 62.6 62.2 62. 3 63.7 63.4 64. 2 63.0 60.6 62. 1 63.3 63.6 Other securities Weekly reporting member banks— business loans J 7. 1 7.3 9.0 10. 2 12.4 14. 1 14. 6 14.4 14.3 14.3 14.5 14 5 14.5 14. 6 14. 7 14.7 15.0 15. 1 15.2 15. 3 15.5 J » Commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans; revised series beginning January 1952. Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 4.7 7.2 14.7 13.9 17.9 23.4 23.4 22.8 22.8 22.6 22.9 23. 1 23.3 23.2 23.4 22.5 22.4 22. 8 22.2 21.9 21. 9 21.5 27 CONSUMER CREDIT Consumer credit outstanding, increasing for the third consecutive month, totaled $27.8 billion at the end of June, or a quarter billion dollars more than a month earlier. The rise in instalment credit, largely seasonal, resulted from increases in automobile credit and personal loans. All types of noninstalment credit also rose. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 30 30 1939 1945 »950 1951 END OF YEAR 1952 1953 1952 1953 END OF MONTH COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM. End of period 1939 1945 1950___ 195U. 1952 1953 1953: May June July August September . October November December __ 1954: January .. _ February -- March April May ._ _ _ June Total consumer credit outstanding 7,222 5,665 20,813 21,468 25, 827 28, 896 27, 056 27,411 27, 581 27, 810 27, 979 28. 166 28, 252 28, 896 28, 125 27, 478 27, 151 27, 330 27, 520 27, 779 [Millions of dollars) Instalment credit Total Automobile paper * 4,503 2,462 14,490 14,837 18, 684 21, 807 20, 213 20, 635 21, 004 21,218 21, 347 21, 486 21, 586 21, 807 21, 444 21, 151 20, 900 20, 909 20, 932 21, 110 1,497 455 6,342 6,242 8, 099 10,289 9,432 9, 692 9,973 10, 136 10, 232 10, 337 10, 358 10, 289 10, 084 9,915 9, 800 9,798 9, 838 -9, 980 Other Repair and consumer moderni- Personal zation loans goods loans 3 paper J 1,088 1,620 298 1,009 182 816 2, 805 4, 337 1,006 4,270 3,235 1,090 1, 406 3,851 5, 328 4,307 1, 606 5, 605 5, 272 1,462 4, 047 4, 117 5, 333 1, 493 4, 164 5, 351 1, 516 4, 186 1,534 5, 362 5,352 4,201 1,562 4, 198 5,366 1,585 1, 604 5, 406 4, 218 1,606 4,307 5,605 4,278 1,587 5,495 5,377 4,289 1, 570 4,326 5, 220 1, 554 1,554 4,369 5, 188 5, 142 4, 387 1, 565 1,563 4, 445 5i 122 Noninstalment credit Total 2, 719 3,203 6,323 6,631 7, 143 7,089 6,843 6, 776 6,577 6, 592 6,632 6, 680 6,666 7,089 6,681 6,327 6,251 6,421 6,588 6,669 Charge accounts 1,414 1,612 3,006 3,096 3,342 3,249 2,763 2,781 2,705 2,668 2,716 2,811 2,840 3,249 2,893 2,550 2,438 2,566 2,639 2,679 J Includes all consumer credit extended for the purpose of purchasing automobiles and other consumer goods and secured by the items purchased. * Includes only such loans held by financial institutions; those held by retail outlets are included in "other consumer goods paper." * Single-payment loans and service credit. NOTE.—DetaD will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board of Governors pjf the Federal Reserve System. 28 Other • 1, 305 1,591 3,317 3,535 3,801 3,840 4,080 3, 995 3,872 3,924 3,916 3, 869 3,826 3,840 3,788 3,777 3,813 3,855 3,949 3,990 S AND 1NTEKEST KATES During July, yields on both long-term public and private securities declined. On the other hand, the yield on 3-month Treasury bills continued the increase started in mid-June. The prime commercial paper rate dropped to a new low for the year. PERCENT PER ANNUM 3.5 PERCENT PER ANNUM 3.5 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS per annum] U. S. Government security yields Period 1939 . ... . . 1946.. 1950 1951 1952 1953 1953: June July August September October .. . November December 1954* January February - March April May June _ Julv Week ended: 1954: Julv 3 . 10 17 _ _ _ _ _ _ 24 31 August 7_ 3-month Treasury bills J 0.023 .375 1.218 1.552 1. 766 1.931 2.231 2. 101 2.088 1.876 1.402 1.427 1. 630 1.214 . 984 .. 1. 053 1. Oil _ .„ . 782 .650 .710 .646 .671 .701 .731 . 800 . 797 Taxable bonds 2 Old series1 2. 19 2.32 2.57 2.68 2.93 3.09 2.99 3.00 2.97 2.83 2. 85 2. 79 2.68 2.60 2.51 2. 47 2.52 2. 54 2. 47 2. 51 2.49 2.46 2. 46 2.45 2.44 New series4 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) 3. 16 3.29 3.25 3.22 3. 19 3.06 3.04 2. 96 2.90 2.85 2. 73 2. 70 2.72 2.70 2. 62 3.01 2.53 2.62 2.86 2.96 3.20 3.40 3.28 3.24 3.29 3. 16 3. 11 3. 13 3.06 2. 95 2.86 2.85 2.88 2.90 2. 89 0.59 .81 1. 45 2. 17 2.33 2.52 2.75 2. 75 2.75 2.74 2.55 2.32 2.25 2. 13 2.00 2.00 1.77 1.59 1.56 1.43 2. 67 2.64 2.62 2. 61 2. 60 2.59 2.90 2.90 2.89 2.88 2.88 2.87 1.56 1.56 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38 on ni»w I.WUPS within period » Bonds in thi? classification were first issued in March 1941. Hircent bonds first callable after 12 years. Prior to April 1952, only bonds due or callable after 15 years were included. »w«ni bonds of 1978-83, issued May 1,1953. Source: Board of Governors of tbe Federal Reserve System. Prime commercial paper, 4—6 months 29 MONEY SUPPLY The increase of $1.7 billion in total deposits and currency during June brought the total increase since mid-1953 to $8.7 billion. Most of the growth over the year occurred in time deposits. U. S. Government deposits were $2.6 billion above their level of a year earlier. B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 225 225 TOTAL DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY TOTAL EXCLUDING U.S. GOVERNMENT DEPOSITS DEMAND DEPOSITS ADJUSTED TIME DEPOSITS 1941 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 5« 52 53 •> f 1952 END OF YEAR 1953 END OF MONTH COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total deposits and currency End of period 1939 1945 1946 . 1948 1949 , ... 1950 --1951 1952 . .......... 1%3 1953: Mav .... June.. . . . . . . . . Julv . . . . . . . . . . . AUJ.MIH! _. S'-ph-mU'i < MoU't . , , . „ . NiiVrmlM't ]W.riuht<l . . . U»<V1 . . I n n u n n . J'Vihnjfit v Miirrh Apiil M*n .I.IF,. * . .J . ..' 64.7 176.4 167.5 172.7 173. 9 180.6 189. 8 200.4 205. 8 195.3 196.6 201.3 201.1 201.1 201. 7 203.7 205.7 203.5 202.5 201.3 202.3 203.6 205. 3 [Billions of dollars] Total excluding U. S. Government deposits U.S. (privately held money supply) Government Currency Demand Time deposits * Total outside deposits deposits * banks adjusted s 6. 4 63. 3 1. 5 29. 8 27. 1 150.8 26.5 25.6 75. 9 48. 5 164. 0 26. 7 3. 5 83. 3 54 0 26. 1 169. 1 3.6 85. 5 57.5 169. 8 4. 1 25. 4 85, 8 58 6 176.9 3.7 25 4 92. 3 59 2 186. 0 3.9 26. 3 98 2 61 4 27. 5 194. 8 6ft R 5. 6 101. 5 27. 8 201. 3 103 3 1 7n i 4. 5 192. 1 27. 0 3.3 97. 5 67.6 27. 4 4.1 192.6 90. 9 68.3 193.0 27. 2 ! 07. 4 8.3 68.4 193.4 27. 3 97. f, 7.7 68.7 : 27. 5 1)7. 7 194.3 6.8 69. 1 j 27. -1 100 : , 4.4 197.3 69. 6 197. 4 27. 9 KM), l? , 69. 3 6.2 r 200.9 28. 1 102 , » j 70. 4 4.8 199.8 3.7 20. 9 102. :* 70. 6 2<; 9 «.»•». r, 7i,o 197.4 5.0 20. '.» «H» V 71. 7 195.2 6. 1 197.3 5.0 '0 V us «. 72. 0 198.0 5.6 '0 * UK V 72. 5 198. 7 6.7 ''. 1 •'.*• .". 7,'i. 3 ' ( i i i \ 4 - i t i ) i M - n i deposits at Federal Reserve banks aod commercial aud savii ii»«l .ji p.ifliiK, oilier than interbank and U. S. GoTernment, less cash items in .|.i!». in roinnuTcial banks, mutual savings banks, and Postal Savings System, i I*, » \t: 30 K t a i l w in not Doccuarily add to totals because of rounding. Source: Board uf U M V W I J « * » » t»l |J»*. I t Hytlom. FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES Total budget expenditures increased in June, largely due to heavy interest payments at the end of the fiscal year. Budget receipts also rose/ reflecting the quarterly income tax payments. The budget deficit for the fiscal year 1954 was $3.0 billion, compared to a deficit of $9.4 billion for fiscal 1953. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TOTAL BUDGET EXPENDITURES NET BUDGET RECEIPTS 75 50 25 25 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1950 NATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAMS 75 1951 1952 1955 1953 BUDGET SURPLUS (+) OR DEFICIT (-) (MAGNIFIED SCALE) 4.5 25 - 1950 1955 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 FISCAL YEARS * ESTIMATED COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] surplus (+) Net budget receipts Budget or deficit ( — ) Budget expenditures Period Actual: Fiscal year 1944» .. .. Fiscal year 1947 Fiscal year 1948 . _ Fiscal year 1950 Fiscal year 1951 Fiscal year 1952 3 Fiscal year 1953s Fiscal year 1954 _ Estimated: Fiscal year 1955 Actual: * 1953: February March April May _ _ _ __ June 1954: February _ -. March .. April _ _ _ _. May June. Public National security * debt CumulaCumulaTotal for tive fiscal Total for tive fiscal (end of8 CumulaCumulaperiod) Total for tive fiscal Total for year tive fiscal period year totals period period year totals period year totals totals Total 95. 1 39.0 33. 1 39.6 44. 1 65.4 74.3 67.6 75.8 14.4 11.7 13.0 22.3 43.8 50. 1 45. 6 43.6 39.8 41.5 36.5 47.6 61.4 64.8 64.5 -51.4 + .8 + 8.4 -3. 1 + 3. 5 4. 0 -9.4 — 3. 0 202.6 258.4 252.4 257.4 255.3 259.2 266.1 271.3 65.6 44.9 62.6 — 2. 9 273.1 5.4 6. 1 6.5 6.5 9.0 4.7 5.6 5.3 5.2 7. 1 46.3 52. 3 58.8 65.3 74.3 44.4 50.0 55.3 60.5 67.6 3.6 4.6 4,6 4.6 5.5 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.3 4.0 30.8 35.5 40. 1 44. 6 50. 1 30.9 34.7 38.3 41. 6 45. 6 4.9 10. 5 2.8 4.2 9.8 5.4 11. 4 2.8 3.6 10. 5 37.6 48. 1 50.9 55. 1 64.8 36.2 47.7 50.4 54.0 64. 5 -.5 + 4.4 -3.7 -2.3 + .8 + .7 + 5. 9 -2.5 -1.6 + 3.4 -8.7 -4.2 -7.9 — 10. 3 -9.4 -8.2 -2.3 -4.8 -6.5 -3.0 267.6 264.5 2646 266.6 266. 1 274.9 270.3 271. 1 273.6 271.3 * Revised to include the items classified as "national security" in The Budget of The United States Government for the Fiscal Year Ending June SO, 1966. These expenditure items are: Military services, foreign military assistance, development and control of atomic energy, and allocation of critical and strategic materials. »Includes guaranteed securities, except those held by the Treasury. Not all of total shown is subject to statutory debt limitation. * Beginning with February 1954, the reporting of budget receipts and expenditures has been changed to a basis consistent with that used in preparing budget estimates. For comparative purposes, figures for fiscal 1953 are shown on a like basis. NOTE.—Data for earlier months have not been published by the Treasury Department. Detail will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Sources: Treasury Department and Bureau of the Budget. 31 FEDERAL CASH RECEIPTS FROM AND PAYMENTS TO THE PUBLIC The cosh deficit for the fiscal year ending in June was one-half billion dollars. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 25 25 CASH RECEIPTS / CASH PAYMENTS u -m — EXCESS OF CASH RECEIPTS- 113 1 I EXCESS OF CASH PAYMENTS- 1952 1953 CALENDAR YEARS COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars i Federal cash payments to the public 41,441 44, 282 44, 922 41,346 42, 419 59, 278 71,339 70, 382 41, 399 38, 616 36, 897 42, 642 41, 969 58, 034 72, 980 76, 541 +42 4-5, 666 -f 8, 027 -1,295 + 450 -hl,*244 -1, 641 -6, 159 21, 874 19, 389 15, 354 14, 722 16, 921 18.701 17, 921 19, 436 + 4, 953 -f-688 —2, 567 —4, 715 .. 22, 539 18, 674 15, 502 13, 667 18, 166 21,049 19,015 18,311 + 4, 373 -2,375 -3, 513 -4,644 - - 23, 353 18, 987 16, 358 18, 342 -f6, 995 + 645 Calendar year total; 1946 -._ 3947 -._ 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 . Quarterly totals, not adjusted for seasonal variation: 1952: First quarter Second Quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter -_ _ -. 1953: First quarter Second quarter Third quarter _ Fourth quarter 1954: First quarter l 1 Second quarter _ - -- - - Excess of receipts (-f) or payments ( — ) Federal cash receipts from the public Calendar year i Preliminary estimates. NOTE.—"Detail ^iH not n»(WBRri)v «dd to totals because of roundinp. Sources: Bureau of the Budget and Treasury Department. For sale by tibe Superintendent of Document!. U. 8. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D. C. Price 20 cents per copy : $2.00 per year; S2.50 foreign. 32 U. S. G O V E R N M E N T P R I N T I N G OFFICE: 1954