Full text of Economic Indicators : April 1989

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101st Congress, 1st Session

Economic Indicators
APRIL

1989

(Includes data available as of May 3, 1989)

Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the




Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1989

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Chairman
PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland, Vice Chairman
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California)
DAVID R. OBEY (Wisconsin)
JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York)
FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California)
STEPHEN J. SOLARZ (New York)
CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio)
OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine)
HAMILTON FISH, JR. (New York)
FREDERICK S. UPTON (Michigan)

SENATE
LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas)
EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)
JEFF BINGAMAN (New Mexico)
ALBERT GORE, JR. (Tennessee)
RICHARD H. BRYAN (Nevada)
WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)
STEVE SYMMS (Idaho)
PETE WILSON (California)
CONNIE MACK (Florida)

JOSEPH J. MINARIK, Executive Director

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
MICHAEL J. BOSKIN, Chairman
JOHN B. TAYLOR, Member-Designate
[PUBLIC LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the
Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that
a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant
at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two
copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the
Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for
distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies
printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.

Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.25 a single copy
($2.81 foreign), or by subscription at $24.00 per year ($30.00 for foreign
mailing) from:
SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402

11




TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
In the first quarter of 1989, according to advance estimates, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 9.7
percent (annual rate) or $117.1 billion. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 5.5 percent and the
implicit price deflator rose 3.9 percent.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

3,^UU

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

4 800
—

4,400

5,200

,s

GNP
INC JRRENT DOLLA R S _ ^ - —-*

4,800

^^

—
4,400

—

V^i

4,000

4,000

_

—

,,--''''

3,600

^^
—

- \"

3,600

—

GNP

\ N 1982 DOLLA RS

r*-***"

3 200

3,200

—

^"2,800

2,800

—

—
2,400

2,400

1

2,000

1

1

1 1 1

1

1981

1982

1

1

1

1

1984

1983

1

1

1985

1

1

1

1986

1

1

1

1

1

1988

1987

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

2,000
1989

COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Exports and imports of goods
and services

Government purchases of
goods and services

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Gross
private
domestic
investment

2,732.0
3,052.6
3,166.0
3,405.7
3,772.2
4,014.9
4,240.3
4,526.7
4,864.3

1,732.6
1,915.1
2,050.7
2,234.5
2,430.5
2,629.0
2,807.5
3,012.1
c
3,227.5

437.0
515.5
447.3
502.3
664.8
643.1
665.9
712.9
766.5

32.1
33.9
26.3
-6.1
589
-78.0
104 4
-123.0
946

351.0
382.8
361.9
352.5
383.5
370.9
378.4
428.0
519.7

318.9
348.9
335.6
358.7
442.4
448.9
482.8
551.1
614.4

530.3
588.1
641.7
675.0
735.9
820.8
871.2
924.7
964.9

208.1
242.2
272.7
283.5
310.5
355.2
366.2
382.0
381.0

142.7
167.5
193.8
214.4
234.3
259.1
277.5
295.3
298.4

65.4
74.8
78.9
69.1
76.2
96.0
88.7
86.7
82.6

IV
IV
IV
IV
IV

3,212.5
3,545.8
3,851.8
4,107.9
4,304.6

2,117.0
2,315.8
2,493.4
2,700.4
2,876.0

409.6
579.8
661.8
654.1
656.4

14.1
258
-67.9
103 2
-114.3

335.9
364.7
385.7
369.2
385.2

321.9
390.5
453.6
472.4
499.4

671.8
676.1
764.5
856.7
886.5

293.2
276.1
326.0
376.6
366.7

205.4
221.5
244.1
268.6
278.1

1987: TH

4,568.0
4,662.8

3,058.2
3,076.3

702.8
764.9

-125.2
-125.7

440.4
459.7

565.6
585.4

932.2
947.3

386.3
391.4

4,724.5
4,823.8
4,909.0
4,999.7

3,128.1
3,194.6
3,261.2
3,326.4

763.4
758.1
772.5
772.0

-112.1
904
-80.0
96 1

487.8
507.1
536.1
548.0

599.9
597.5
616.0
644.0

945.2
961.6
955.3
997.5

5,116.8

3,380.4

815.9

-90.5

570.3

660.8

1,010.9

Period

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
19821983198419851986-

. . ..

IV
1988- I

. ...

n
TTT

..

IV
1989- I
1

p

Gross
national
product

Net
exports

GNP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services.




Final
sales

Gross
domestic
purchases l

322.2
345.9
369.0
391.5
425.3
465.6
505.0
542.8
583.9

2,740.3
3,028.6
3,190.5
3,412.8
3,704.5
4,003.6
4,224.7
4,487.5
4,815.9

2,699.8
3,018.7
3,139.7
3,411.8
3,831.1
4,092.8
4,344.7
4,649.7
4,958.9

87.7
54.6
81.9
108.0
88.7

378.7
400.0
438.5
480.1
519.7

3,272.4
3,514.8
3,806.8
4,100.7
4,306.6

3,198.5
3,571.6
3,919.7
4,211.2
4,418.9

299.8
299.2

86.4
92.2

546.0
555.9

4,553.5
4,590.7

4,693.2
4,788.4

377.7
382.2
367.7
396.3

298.4
298.8
294.3
301.9

79.3
83.4
73.4
94.3

567.5
579.4
587.6
601.2

4,659.2
4,780.1
4,859.3
4,965.0

4,836.6
4,914.2
4,989.0
5,095.8

394.8

298.7

96.1

616.1

5,055.0

5,207.3

Federal
Exports

Imports

Total
Total

National
defense

Nondefense

State
and
local

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS
[Billions of 1982 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Exports and imports of
goods and services

Gross private
domestic investment
Personal
consumption
expenditures

Nonresidential
fixed

3,187.1
3,248.8
3,166.0
3,279.1
3,501.4
3,618.7
3,721.7
3,847.0
3,996.1

2,000.4
2,024.2
2,050.7
2,146.0
2,249.3
2,354.8
2,455.2
2,521.0
2,592.2

379.2
395.2
366.7
361.2
425.2
453.5
433.1
445.1
487.5

IV
IV
IV
IV
TV

3,159.3
3,365.1
3,535.2
3,662.4
3,734.7

2,078.7
2,191.9
2,281.1
2,386.9
2,486.2

1987: m
IV

3,865.3
3,923.0

1988: I
II

m

Gross
national
product

Government purchases of
goods and services
Federal

Change
in
business
inventories

Net
exports

Exports

137.0
126.5
105.1
149.3
170.9
174.4
195.0
195.2
191.8

-6.9
23.9
-24.5
-6.4
62.3
9.1
15.4
34.4
42.5

57.0
49.4
26.3
-19.9
-84.0
-104.3
-137.5
-128.9
-100.2

388.9
392.7
361.9
348.1
371.8
367.2
378.4
427.8
504.8

332.0
343.4
335.6
368.1
455.8
471.4
515.9
556.7
605.0

620.5
629.7
641.7
649.0
677.7
731.2
760.5
780.2
782.3

352.3
390.4
444.4
460.9
427.3

115.8
159.9
169.6
179.4
199.7

-59.3
11.7
27.0 —46.2
41.7 -94.8
7.7 -125.3
-10.5 -142.4

336.0
355.5
376.6
367.4
387.8

324.3
401.6
471.4
492.6
530.2

2,545.2
2,531.7

462.8
464.8

192.1
192.7

13.0 -130.7
67.1 — 126.0

440.9
459.2

IV

3,956.1
3,985.2
4,009.4
4,033.4

2,559.8
2,579.0
2,603.8
2,626.2

473.4
490.2
495.0
491.4

189.5
189.6
191.6
196.6

66.0 - 109.0
35.3 -92.6
39.5 -93.9
29.1 — 105.4

486.2
496.9
514.0
522.1

1989: I ?

4,088.2

2,634.8

502.8

194.8

53.8

-95.6

535.4

Period

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
1986-

1

Residential
fixed

GMP less exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services.

Imports

Total

State
and
local

Final
sales

Gross
domestic
purchases l

National
defense

Nondefense

246.9
259.6
272.7
275.1
290.8
326.0
333.4
339.0
328.7

171.2
180.3
193.8
206.9
218.5
237.2
251.4
264.9
261.8

75.7
79.3
78.9
68.2
72.3
88.8
82.0
74.1
66.9

373.6
370.1
369.0
373.9
387.0
405.2
427.1
441.2
453.6

3,194.0
3,225.0
3,190.5
3,285.5
3,439.1
3,609.6
3,706.3
3,812.6
3,953.6

3,130.1
3,199.4
3,139.7
3,299.1
3,585.4
3,723.0
3,859.3
3,975.9
4,096.3

660.1
642.2
693.2
752.7
774.5

289.5
266.0
300.5
340.6
340.5

201.4
211.6
225.3
241.4
253.1

88.2
54.4
75.2
99.2
87.4

370.6
376.2
392.7
412.1
434.0

3,218.6
3,338.1
3,493.5
3,654.7
3,745.2

3,147.6
3,411.3
3,630.0
3,787.6
3,877.2

571.6
585.2

782.9
792.6

342.1
347.7

269.5
268.2

72.6
79.5

440.8
444.9

3,852.2
3,855.9

3,996.0
4,049.0

595.1
589.5
607.9
627.4

776.4
783.8
773.5
795.5

327.8
331.6
320.1
335.5

264.6
263.6
256.4
262.5

63.2
67.9
63.7
72.9

448.7
452.2
453.4
460.0

3,890.1
3,949.9
3,969.9
4,004.4

4,065.1
4,077.9
4,103.4
4,138.8

631.0

797.7

333.2

255.9

77.3

464.5

4,034.5

4,183.9

Total

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
[1982=100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]
Gross private
domestic investment

Personal consumption
expenditures
Period

Gross
national
product

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988

Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable goods

Services

Nonresidential
fixed

Exports and imports of
goods and services

Government purchases of goods and
services
Federal

Residential fixed

Exports

Imports
Total

National
defense

Nondefense

State
and local

85.7
94.0
100.0
103.9
107.7
110.9
113.9
117.7
121.7

86.6
94.6
100.0
104.1
108.1
111.6
114.3
119.5
124.5

89.2
95.7
100.0
102.1
103.8
104.8
105.6
107.9
110.1

89.4
96.9
100.0
102.1
105.0
107.5
107.3
112.1
116.4

83.9
92.6
100.0
106.2
111.6
116.8
122.4
128.5
134.8

85.1
93.4
100.0
98.8
97.9
97.7
100.2
100.4
100.2

89.4
96.6
100.0
102.2
106.0
108.3
111.1
116.2
119.7

90.2
97.5
100.0
101.3
103.2
101.0
100.0
100.0
102.9

96.0
101.6
100.0
97.4
97.1
95.2
93.6
99.0
101.5

84.3
93.3
100.0
103.1
106.8
109.0
109.8
112.7
115.9

83.4
92.9
100.0
103.6
107.2
109.2
110.4
111.5
114.0

86.4
94.3
100.0
101.4
105.5
108.2
108.2
117.0
123.4

86.2
93.4
100.0
104.7
109.9
114.9
118.2
123.0
128.7

IV
IV
IV
IV
IV

101.7
105.4
109.0
112.2
115.3

101.8
105.7
109.3
113.1
115.7

100.7
103.1
104.1
104.7
106.2

101.0
103.1
105.8
108.7
107.8

102.7
108.3
113.5
119.0
124.6

100.7
98.3
97.9
97.9
101.6

99.1
103.1
107.2
109.0
112.4

100.0
102.6
102.4
100.5
99.3

99.3
97.2
96.2
95.9
94.2

101.3
103.8
108.5
110.6
107.7

102.0
104.7
108.3
111.3
109.9

99.5
100.3
108.9
108.8
101.5

102.2
106.3
111.7
116.5
119.7

1987: IH

118.2
118.9

120.2
121.5

108.6
108.9

112.9
113.7

129.1
131.0

99.9
99.8

117.7
118.7

99.9
100.1

98.9
100.0

112.9
112.6

111.3
111.6

119.0
116.0

123.9
124.9

IV

119.4
121.0
122.4
124.0

122.2
123.9
125.2
126.7

109.1
109.6
110.4
111.4

113.8
116.0
117.3
118.3

132.2
134.0
135.6
137.3

99.6
99.5
99.7
101.9

119.5
119.5
119.6
120.4

100.3
102.1
104.3
105.0

100.8
101.4
101.3
102.6

115.2
115.3
114.9
118.1

112.8
113.4
114.8
115.0

125.5
122.7
115.2
129.3

126.5
128.1
129.6
130.7

1989: I P

125.2

128.3

111.7

120.0

139.3

102.7

122.0

106.5

104.7

118.5

116.7

124.4

132.6

1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
1986:

IV
1988: I

n
m

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND
RELATED PRICE MEASURES
[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Gross national product
Period

Constant
(1982)
dollars

Current
dollars

8.9
11.7
3.7
7.6
10.8
6.4
5.6
6.8
7.5
4.2
12.4
4.7
6.2
3.4
7.7
8.6
5.4
8.7
7.3
7.6
9.7

1980
1981

1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
198219831984198519861987-

IV
IV
IV
IV
IV
m
IV
1988- I
H

m
rv

1989- I "

-0.2

1.9
-2.5
3.6
6.8
3.4
2.8
3.4
3.9
.6
7.3
1.7
3.0
1.4
4.5
6.1
3.4
3.0
2.5
2.4
5.5

Implicit
price
deflator

Personal consumption expenditures

Chain price
index

9.0
9.4
6.3
4.1
3.9
3.3
2.5
3.4
3.8
4.1
3.9
3.1
3.2
2.4
3.6
3.4
3.0
4.8
4.7
4.2
4.8

9.0
9.7
6.4
3.9
3.7
3.0
2.7
3.3
3.4
3.6
4.7
3.0
3.3
2.1
3.1
2.4
1.7
5.5
4.7
5.3
3.9

NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter.

Fixedweighted
price index
(1982
weights)

Constant
(1982)
dollars

Current
dollars

9.3
9.3
6.2
4.1
4.0
3.4
2.8
3.6
4.2
4.0
4.0
3.2
3.3
2.8
3.7
3.8
3.5
5.0
5.3
4.2
5.0

10.6
10.5
7.1
9.0

8.8
8.2
6.8
7.3
7.2
10.3
9.7
7.2
6.0
4.8
9.1
2.4
6.9
8.8
8.6
8.2
6.7

-0.2
1.2
1.3
4.6
4.8
4.7
4.3
2.7
2.8
5.3
5.5
4.3
1.9
1.2
4.6
-2.1
4.5
3.0
3.9
3.5
1.3

Implicit
price
deflator

10.7
9.2
5.7
4.1
3.8
3.2
2.4
4.5
4.2
4.4
4.3
3.0
4.0
3.5
4.4
4.4
2.3
5.7
4.3
4.9
5.1

Chain price
index

10.9
9.2
5.7
4.2
3.9
3.5
2.7
4.5
4.2
4.8
4.1
3.1
4.2
3.5
4.3
4.4
2.5
5.6
4.6
4.7
4.9

Fixedweighted
price index
(1982
weights)

10.5
9.0

5.6
4.2
4.0

3.5
2.7
4.5
4.3
4.8
4.1
3.2
4.3
3.5
4.2
4.6
2.4
5.7
4.9
4.8
5.0

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS-OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Current-dollar cost and profit per unit of output (dollars) 1

Gross domestic
product of
nonfinancial
corporate business
(billions of dollars)
Period
Current
dollars

1980
1981.
1982
1983.
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
19821983:
19841985:
198619871988:

IV
IV
IV
IV
IV
TTTT.
IV
I

n
m
IV

1

1982
dollars

1,807.9
1,540.8
1,837.2
1,738.4
1,782.2
1,782.2
1,866.0
1,914.2
2,036.5
2,146.7
2,117.4
2,267.1
2,177.2
2,371.6
2,513.5 2,270.4
r
2,711.3 ' 2,390.4
1,760.2
1,779.4
1,940.5
2,012.5
2,069.5
2,201.8
2,137.7
2,309.2
2,409.3 2,199.0
2,546.9 2,296.1
2,322.5
2,585.6
2,363.5
2,633.2
2,380.9
2,684.0
2,395.5
2,732.1
r
2,796.1 r 2,421.7

Capital
consumption
Total
cost
and
profit 2

0.852
.946
1.000
1.026
1.054
1.071
1.089
1.107
1.134
1.011
1.037
1.064
1.080
1.096
1.109
1.113
1.114
1.127
1.140
1.155

Corporate profits with
inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments

ances
with
capital
consumption
adjustment

Indirect
business
taxes 3

0.095
.109
.125
.123
.118
.119
.121
.122
.122
.131
.120
.118
.120
.122
.121
.121
.121
.122
.122
.123

0.077
.090
.094
.098
.100
.103
.105
.106
.107
.096
.098
.102
.104
.105
.106
.105
.105
.106
.108
.108

Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1982 dol-

4

Compensation of
employees

Net
interest

0.581
.632
.676
.679
.687
.704
.719
.732
.752
.685
.680
.694
.713
.725
.729
.738
.736
.747
.758
r
.766

0.031
.037
.043
.037
.039
.038
.039
.043
.048
.042
.037
.042
.037
.040
.044
.046
.045
.047
.048
.050

Total

0.068
.078
.063
.089
.109
.106
.106
.105
.106
.057
.103
.107
.106
.104
.109
.103
.106
.106
.104
.107

Profits
tax
liability

0.037
.035
.026
.032
.036
.033
.035
.044
.045
.023
.036
.032
.033
.039
.046
.044
.044
.046
.046
.046

Profits
after
tax 4

0.031
.044
.037
.057
.073
.073
.071
.061
.060
.034
.066
.075
.072
.065
.063
.059
.062
.060
.058
.061

Output
per hour
of all
employees
(1982
dollars)

Compensation
per hour
of all
employees
(dollars)

17.096
17.194
17.318
17.865
18.287
18.584
18.927
19.216
r
19.471
17.383
18.029
18.359
18.639
19.043
19.362
19.357
19.560
19.481
19.443
19.454

9.939
10.861
11.699
12.122
12.569
13.075
13.605
14.062
r
14.640
11.914
12.261
12.746
13.288
13.815
14.110
14.291
14.397
14.546
14.743
14.908

With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.

lars.
2

This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with
the decimal point shifted two places to the left.
3
Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies.




Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor
(Bureau of Labor Statistics).

NATIONAL INCOME
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

National
income

Period

Compensation of
employees1

Proprietors' income
with inventory
valuation and capita]
consumption
adjustments

Farm

1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 r
198219831984198519861987-

IV
IV
IV
IV
IV
TTT
IV

:

1988- I
H

m

IV '

Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments
Profits with inventory valuation
adjustment and without capital
consumption adjustment
Total
Total

Profits
before tax

2,518.4
2,719.5
3,028.6
3,234.0
3,437.1
3,678.7
3,968.4
2,548.2
2,851.5
3,096.1
3,312.8
3,496.6
3,708.0
3,802.0

1,907.0
2,020.7
2,213.9
2,367.5
2,507.1
2,683.4
2,904.7
1,931.1
2,092.7
2,272.7
2,426.7
2,565.8
2,702.8
2,769.9

24.6
12.4
30.5
30.2
36.4
43.0
36.3
28.5
19.3
28.1
29.2
38.4
35.2
47.0

150.9
178.4
204.0
225.6
250.3
270.0
288.2
159.8
188.6
209.7
235.0
255.8
271.5
279.0

13.6
13.2
8.5
9.2
12.4
18.4
19.3
15.8
12.4
5.6
7.8
13.4
18.1
20.5

150.0
213.7
266.9
282.3
298.9
310.4
328.4
146.1
248.5
266.9
291.4
293.9
322.0
316.1

159.2
196.7
234.2
222.6
244.7
258.7
282.8
150.7
223.4
224.6
228.4
244.1
269.9
263.7

169.6
207.6
240.0
224.3
236.4
276.7
306.6
164.1
231.5
226.2
235.0
252.1
289.4
281.9

3,850.8
3,928.8
4,000.7
4,093.4

2,816.4
2,874.0
2,933.2
2,995.3

44.7
43.4
30.9
26.0

279.2
285.3
290.7
297.7

20.5
19.1
19.7
18.1

316.2
326.5
330.0
340.9

266.8
278.5
284.6
301.3

286.2
305.9
313.9
320.6

3,060.3

56.9

300.9

13.3

1989- I "
1

Nonfarm

Rental
income o[
persons
with
capital
consumption
adjustment

Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.)

Inventory
valuation
adjustment

Capital
consumption
adjustment

-10.4
109
-5.8
17
8.3
180
-23.8
134
81

Net
interest

-8.1
19 5
-18.2

17.0
32.7
59.7
54.2
51.7
45.6
-4.5
25.1
42.3
63.0
49.8
52.1
52.4

272.3
281.0
304.8
319.0
331.9
353.6
391.5
266.9
290.2
313.1
322.7
329.3
358.3
369.5

-19.4
27 4
-29.3
19 2

49.4
48.0
45.4
39.6

373.9
380.6
396.2
415.4

-33.6

33.3

435.5

-1.6
66

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Durable goods

Nondurable goods

Total
personal
consumption
expenditures

Total
durable
goods

2,050.7
2,234.5
2,430.5
2,629.0
2,807.5
3,012.1
3,227.5
2,117.0
2,315.8
2,493.4
2,700.4
2,876.0
3,058.2
3,076.3

252.7
289.1
335.5
372.2
406.5
421.9
451.1
263.8
310.0
346.7
373.2
421.8
441.4
422.0

108.9
130.4
157.4
179.1
196.4
195.8
208.6
115.7
144.4
162.3
173.8
201.0
212.9
194.0

95.7
107.1
118.8
129.9
140.0
148.3
159.0
99.1
112.4
122.7
134.7
143.3
150.2
149.4

771.0
48.1
816.7
51.6
59.3
867,3
63.2
911.2
70.1
943.6
77.8
997.9
83.6 1,046.9
786.6
49.0
837.9
53.2
61.8
879.6
64.7
932.7
954.1
77.5
78.3 1,006.6
78.6 1,012.4

TJI
IV

3,128.1
3,194.6
3,261.2
3,326.4

437.8
449.8
452.9
464.0

202.2
208.7
210.2
213.2

154.7
159.5
159.5
162.3

81.0
81.5
83.2
88.5

1989- Ip

3,380.4

461.5

208.2

167.8

85.5

Period

1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
198219831984198519861987-

.

IV
IV
IV
IV
IV
TTT
IV

1988- I

n

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




Motor
vehicles
and
parts

Furniture
and
household
equipment

Other

Total
nondurable
goods

Services

Retail sales of
new passenger
cars (millions of
units)

Clothing and
shoes

Gasoline
and oil

398.8
421.9
448.5
471.6
501.0
526.4
551.5
407.0
430.8
456.1
482.5
512.6
528.4
530.9

124.4
135.1
146.7
156.4
167.0
178.2
186.4
126.5
141.1
149.8
160.6
169.4
180.4
181.2

89.1
90.2
90.0
90.6
73.3
77.0
78.8
89.8
91.9
89.0
91.0
66.3
79.3
79.3

158.7
169.5
182.1
192.6
202.2
216.3
230.2
163.4
174.0
184.7
198.5
205.8
218.5
220.9

1,027.0
1,128.7
1,227.6
1,345.6
1,457.3
1,592.3
1,729.6
1,066.5
1,167.9
1,267.1
1,394.5
1,500.1
1,610.2
1,641.9

5.8
6.8
8.0
8.2
8.2
7.1
7.5
6.0
7.4
7.7
7.0
7.7
8.0
6.6

2.2
2.4
2.4
2.8
3.2
3.2
3.1
2.5
2.6
2.6
3.1
3.4
3.5
3.3

1,016.2
1,036.6
1,060.8
1,073.9

535.9
546.3
558.9
564.9

180.5
183.2
188.4
193.6

76.3
78.8
80.5
79.5

223.5
228.2
233.0
235.9

1,674.1
1,708.2
1,747.5
1,788.5

7.6
7.5
7.6
7.5

3.2
3.1
3.1
3.0

1,093.7

579.4

193.3

78.3

242.7

1,825.3

6.9

2.9

Food

Other

Domestics

Imports

SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income rose $34.1 billion (annual rate) in March, following an increase of $43.7 billion in February. The
increases were affected by several special factors: Profit-sharing payments to employees in the motor vehicle
industry and a large increase in retroactive social security benefits affected the March increase; subsidy payments
to farm proprietors affected both the March and February increases. Excluding these special factors, personal
income increased $27.9 billion in March and $31.4 billion in February.

5,000

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
5,000

4,000

4,000

3,000

3,000

2,000

2,000

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)

WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS

1,400

1,400

OTHER INCOME

800

800

"

\

TRANSFER
PAYMENTS

400

1981

1982

1983

1985

1984

400

1986

1987

1988

1989

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

personal
income

1980

2
2
2
2

1981
1982
1983
1984 .
1985
1986
1987
1988
1988: Mar
Apr
MayJ

T
June
July

Aus:

Sept
Oct.
Nov
Dec
1989: Jan '.
Feb r
Mar"
1

. ...

Wage and
salary
disbursements l

258 4
5209
670 8
8386

1 372 0

3 108 7
3 325 3
3 531 1
3 7800
4062 1
3 985 9
4001 0
4021 4
40449
4075 3
4091 8
4 114 7
4 175 5
4,165.2
4 2008
4,271.9
4 315 6
4 349 7

1 8386

1 510 3
1 586 1
1 676 6
1 975 4
2 094 0
2 248 4
2 436 9
2 374 7
2 394 0

Proprietor, ' income 3
Other labor
income * 2

138 4
150 3

163 6
173 6
182 9
187 6
196 1
207 9
218 3

2 427 5
2 451 9
2 459 1

215 2
215 8
2164
217 4
218 5
219 5

2 4750

2205

2 506 9
2 514 1
2 529 5

221 5
222 5
223 5
224 5

24084

2559 2
2 570 8
2 591 8

2254
226 4

Farm

20 5
30 7
24 6

160 1
156 1
150 9

12 4
30 5
30 2
36 4
43 0
36 3

178 4
204 0
225 6
250 3
270 0
288 2
279 9
283 3
285 2
287 5
289 4

56 8
44 8
45 2
40 3
34 1
31 4
27 2
41 5
13 5
23 1
47 0
64 4
59 2

The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of
employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of
wage accruals over wage disbursements.
2
Consists primarily of employer contributions to private pension and private welfare funds.
3
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
4
With capital consumption adjustment.




Nonfarm

2902
292 6
296 1
297 5
299 5
300 7
301 2

3009

Less:
income of
persons 4

66

13 3
13 6
13 2
85
92
12 4
18 4
19 3
20 2
19 3
18 9
19 0
19 3
19 7
200
190
180
17 2
15 3
12 8
11 9

dividend
income

interest
income

52 9
61 3

271 9
335 4

63 9
68 7
75 5
78 7
82 8
88 6
96 3
94 0
94 7
95 0
95 4
96 3
97 5
98 0
98 9
99 4
99 8

369 7
393 1
444 7
478 0
499 1
527 0
575 9
554 1
558 8
563 7
568 7
574 9
581 8
589 1
596 4
603 7
611 1

101 2
102 1
103 0

6209
632 9
645 0

pay-

ments 5
324 7
368 1
410 6
442 6
456 6
489 8
521 1
548 8
586 0

contributions
for social
insurance

88 6
104 5
112 3
120 1

582 2
582 8
582 0
583 6
587 0
589 2
589 7
594 7

132 7
149 3
161 1
172 0
195 1
191 2
192 4
193 4
194 6
196 2
196 5
197 4
199 5

5965

2000

597 9
612 4
615 9
622 6

200 9

5

2094
210 0
211 2

personal
income 6
2 215 8
2 465 6
2 618 7
2 799 0
3 052 1
3 271 3
3 472 5
3 716 0
4 004 8
3 908 7
3 935 4
3 955 1
3 983 3

4020 2
4039 3
4066 3
4 112 8
4 1304
4 156 4
4 203 5
4 229 8
4 269 0

Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments.
6
Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income,
and agricultural net interest.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME
Real per capita disposable personal income rose again in the first quarter of 1989.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
4,000

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
4,000

,800

1,800

DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
1 6,000

DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
16^000
PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME
14,000

14,000
CURRENT DOLLARS

3 -'

12,000

12,000
10,000

10,000
1982 DOLLARS

8,000

8,000

I

6,000
1981

I I
1982

I

I

I I
1984

1983

1985

I

I
1987

1986

I

1988

6,000
1989

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

• SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Persona!
income

Less:
Personal
nontax
payments

F

Disposable
personal
income

Less:

Equals:

outlays l

saving

Per capita
disposable personal
income

Disposable
personal
1982
dollars
(billions)

Current
dollars

Billions of dollars

1980
1981
1982.
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988

2 2584
2,520.9
26708
2,838.6
3 108 7
3 3253
3 531 1
3 7800
4 062 1

3405
393 3
409 3
410 5
440 2
486 6
511 4
5703
590 3

1 917 9
2 127 6
2 261 4
2 428 1
2 668 6
2 838 7
3 019 6
3 209 7
3 471 8

1982
dollars

Per capita personal
consumption
expenditures

Percent
change in
real per

Saving as
percent of

1982
dollars

disposable
personal
income

personal
income

Current
dollars

3105 5
3 327 5

136 8
1594
153 9
1306
164 1
1254
121 7
104 2
144 3

8 421
9 243
9 724
10 340
11 257
11 g6i
12 496
13 157
14 103

2 214 3

2 248 6
2 261 5
2 331 9
2 469 8
2 542 8
2 640 9
2 686 3
2 788 3

abroad
(thousands) 2

Percent

Dollars
1 781 1
1 968 1
2 107 5
2 297 4
2 504 5
2 713 3
2 8980

Population,
including
Armed

9 722
9 769
9 724
9 930
10 419
10 625
10 929
11 012
11 326

7 607
8 320
8 818
9 515
10 253
10985
11 618
12 348
13 110

8 794
8 818
9 139
9 489
9 839
10 160
10 334
10530

1i
5
5
21
49
20
29
8
29

68
54
61
44
40
32
42

227 754
230 182
232 549
234 829
237 051
239 322
241 650
243 944
246 179

8 783

71
75

Seasonally adjusted annual rates

1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
1986:

IV
IV
IV
IV
IV

2,729.2
2,941.8
3,188.3
3,399.1
3,599.6

411.1
413.9
459.7
499.6
534.9

2,318.1
2,527.9
2,728.6
2,899.5
3,064.7

2,174.9
2,382.5
2,571.3
2,787.7
2,967.9

143.1
USA
157.3
111.7
96.8

2,276.1
2,392.7
2,496.3
2,562.8
2,649.4

9,929
10,725
11,467
12,068
12,635

9,749
10,151
10,491
10,667
10,923

9,068
9,825
10,479
11,240
11,857

8,904
9,299
9,587
9,935
10,250

1.2
9.1
1.7
3.3
-.2

6.2
5.8
5.8
3.9
3.2

233,466
235,707
237,946
240,257
242,557

1987:

HI....
IV

3,801.0
3,906.8

576.2
591.0

3,224.9
3,315.8

3,152.3
3,171.8

72.6
144.0

2,683.9
2,728.9

13,204
13,543

10,989
11,145

12,521
12,564

10,421
10,340

3.7
5.8

2.3
4.3

244,236
244,845

1988: I
II
III....
IV

3,951.4
4,022.4
4,094.0
4,180.5

575.8
601.0
586.5
598.0

3,375.6
3,421.5
3,507.5
3,582.5

3,225.7
3,293.6
3,361.8
3,428.7

149.9
127.8
145.7
153.8

2,762.3
2,762.2
2,800.4
2,828.4

13,760
13,919
14,231
14,497

11,260
11,237
11,362
11,445

12,751
12,996
13,232
13,461

10,435
10,492
10,564
10,627

4.2
-.8
4.5
3.0

4.4
3.7
4.2
4.3

245,318
245,806
246,469
247,123

1989: I"

4,312.4

616.0

3,696.4

3,484.5

211.9

2,881.1

14,925

11,633

13,649

10,639

6.7

5.7

247,663

1

Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net).




2

Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).

FARM INCOME
In the fourth quarter of 1988, according to current estimates, gross farm income fell $16.4 billion (annual rate) and
net farm income fell $18.4 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)

240
200

—^

s

.—.
~-

^^

^__

_

240
200

_^^^

—"

'

>=.-

160

--/

80
60

60
' ^
40

,"•/
1

20

.

/^ *•- ~\
v
;
\
\

'

\

>
i\

r

v

/

/\
\

/

I
1

/
1
\ I
\t

/

^

"•'"

40

\

\

Mb T FARM INCOMt

\

/

1

20

i
n /
i
i\ i
i ' v
\ •'
'
\'
u

• ;
t ;
\ ;
\
i\ i•

10

.-'- %

/v-'
/ ••

••*.

10

\iu

1 1 [

2

1980

i i i

1

1

1

1

1982

1981

1 1
1983

1

1

1

1984

1

1
1985

1

1

1

1

1986

' SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

1

1
1987

1

1

1

1

2

1988

COUNCIL Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Income of farm operators from farming
Gross farm income
Period
Total '
Total

1980
1981
1982
1983

1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1986- I
II

m

IV
1987- I

n
m

IV
1988- I
II

in
rv




Net farm income

Cash marketing receipts

149.3
166.4
163.5
153.0
174.9
166.2
159.8
169.8
173.1
150.4
168.0
158.1
162.6
173.6
162.5
168.9
173.7
166.5
181.8
180.3
163.9

Livestock and
products

Crops

Value of
inventory
changes 2

Production
expenses

Current
dollars

1982 dollars 3

139.7
141.7
142.6
136.6
142.4
144.0
135.1
138.1
151.7

68.0
69.2
70.3
69.4
73.0
69.8
71.5
76.2
80.2

71.7
72.5
72.3
67.1
69.5
74.2
63.6
61.9
71.5

—6 3
6.5
-1.4
-10.9
6.3
-2.4
— 2.8
-.6
-8.0

133.1
139.4
140.0
140.4
142.7
134.0
122.3
123.5
132.1

16.1
26.9
23.5
12.7
32.2
32.3
37.5
46.3
41.0

18.8
28.6
23.5
12.2
29.9
29.1
32.9
39.3
33.8

134.9
129.9
137.8
137.7

68.0
67.8
77.3
73.0

66.9
62.1
60.5
64.7

-3.8
-3.3
-2.3
-1.9

125.4
122.2
121.1
120.7

25.0
45.9
37.0
41.9

22.2
40.4
32.3
36.3

134.9
134.4
146.5
136.6
142.6
156.7
170.7
136.8

73.3
77.0
79.6
75.1
78.3
76.7
85.1
80.7

61.6
57.4
66.9
61.5
64.3
80.0
85.6
56.1

— .3
.1
-.4
-1.9
— 7.2
-8.0
-8.6
-8.2

120.3
124.1
125.0
124.6
126.1
129.1
135.6
137.7

53.4
38.4
43.9
49.0

45.9
32.8
37.2
41.2

40.4
52.7
44.6
26.2

33.9
43.6
36.5
21.1

CORPORATE PROFITS
In the fourth quarter of 1988, according to revised estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $6.7 billion (annual
rate) and after-tax profits rose $5.4 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
360

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

360

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

320

320

/^

280

280

/
/

240i

200

^

PROFITS BEFORE TAX

""

~"\

200

^
^.f**

/

\

120

240

r ^

^
\

/

3

/-

160

.---.^
s

s

PR OFITS AFTER T/\X.

\ ,_>,

*•""*""

160

__**

. — — ^**..—

-*—

*-**

*""*

120

s

\

_//-^

80

\

\uir'*%
\
\

s

s

•.

--"'<''

-"

80

\..*"\

J**

\

40,

-";

UNDISTRIBUTED PRO ITS

0

1

1

1

1

1

1

1982

1981

[

1 1
1983

1 1 1

1

1

1

1

1

1986

1985

1984

I

1

1

\

1

\ \
1988

1987

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1

1

1

1989

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Profits (Wore tax) with inventory valuation adjustment i

Profits after tax

Domestic industries
Nonfinancial

Period
Total

2

Total

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 r

Financial

Total 3

Manufacturing

Profits
before tax

Tax
liability

Wholesale and
retail
trade

Total

Dividends

Undistributed
profits

Inventory
valuation
adjustment

194.0
202.3
159.2
196.7
234.2
222.6
244.7
258.7
282.8

159.6
173.8
131.2
166.6
203.3
191.4
212.8
222.3
245.7

21.0
16.5
11.8
18.1
13.0
22.8
31.8
30.1
30.5

138.6
157.3
119.4
148.5
190.3
168.6
180.9
192.1
215.1

77.1
88.5
58.0
70.1
88.8
79.7
79.4
96.8
114.1

21.6
32.5
34.6
38.9
51.2
44.1
46.1
42.8
39.7

237.1
226.5
169.6
207.6
240.0
224.3
236.4
276.7
306.6

84.8
81.1
63.1
77.2
93.9
96.4
106.6
133.8
142.7

152.3
145.4
106.5
130.4
146.1
127.8
129.8
142.9
163.9

54.7
63.6
66.9
71.5
79.0
83.3
88.2
95.5
104.5

97.6
81.8
39.6
58.9
67.0
44.6
41.6
47.4
59.4

-43.1
-24.2
-10.4
-10.9
-5.8
-1.7
8.3
-18.0
-23.8

19821983:
1984:
1985:
1986:

IV
IV
IV .
IV
IV

150.7
223.4
224.6
228.4
244.1

121.6
190.7
193.9
193.6
211.9

18.7
15.5
13.6
26.0
28.9

102.9
175.2
180.3
167.6
183.0

46.8
88.6
79.8
83.8
87.7

33.6
43.1
51.8
38.5
42.5

164.1
231.5
226.1
235.0
252.1

59.8
88.1
87.0
99.8
114.3

104.3
143.4
139.2
135.2
137.9

68.5
73.9
80.8
84.0
89.8

35.8
69.5
58.4
51.2
48.1

-13.4
-8.1
-1.6
-6.6
-8.1

1987:

III
IV

269.9
263.7

234.6
222.2

29.5
28.8

205.1
193.4

107.0
101.7

44.1
43.0

289.4
281.9

140.0
136.2

149.5
145.7

97.0
99.3

52.4
46.4

-19.5
-18.2

1988: I .

266.8
278.5
284.6
301.3

236.6
243.1
243.8
259.2

27.6
30.0
32.7
31.8

209.0
213.1
211.1
227.4

110.6
114.5
111.4
120.1

43.9
37.0
36.6
41.3

286.2
305.9
313.9
320.6

136.9
143.2
144.8
146.1

149.4
162.7
169.1
174.5

101.3
103.1
105.7
108.0

48.1
59.6
63.4
66.4

-19.4
-27.4
-29.3
-19.2

n
m
IV

1989- I p
1
2

See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.




111.1
3

Includes industries not shown separately.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

-33.6

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
According to advance estimates for the first quarter of 1989, nonresidential fixed investment rose $15.9 billion
(annual rate) and residential investment rose $1.1 billion. There was a $61.8 billion increase in inventories,
following an increase of $34.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 1988.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

900

900

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

800

800
/~ —
—/

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC
INVESTMENT

700
f

.

—*~

\

'

—

700

>X
-

"*"-—'

I

600

600
-

MONRESIDENT IAL

500

~^\

/

r~N
"— ~

f IXED INVESTM FNT

500
-*"

—

/

400
--~~

400
-

300

300

RESIDENT IAL
FIXED INVES 'MENT

-

-

\

200

200

.'

-

— •— .

r HANGE IN BUS IK|F<;<;
INVENTOR IE S

100
-

'

1

inn

1

1

1981

1

1982

1

I

1 ( 1

[

1

f

1985

%

-

~~ -

"~,\.
1984

1983

100
/*"

~-xs

/

\.

0

^

0

1

I 1

f

1

1

1987

1986

1

1

1

1988

1

1

1

-100

1989

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMEN OF COMMERCE

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Change in business
inventories

Fixed investment
Period

Gross
private
domestic
investment

1980
1981
1982
1983

1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
19821983:
1984:
1985:
1986:
1987:
1988:

1989:

437.0
515.5
447.3
502.3
664.8
643.1
665.9
712.9
766.5

IV
IV
IV
IV
IV

409.6
579.8
661.8
654.1
656.4

HI
IV.

702.8
764.9

n..
m

I

IV.

763.4
758.1
772.5
772.0

1"

815.9

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




Nonresidential
Total
Total
445.3
491.5
471.8
509.4
597.1
631.8
650.4
673.7
718.1
469.5
548.8
616.8
646.8
658.4
688.3
692.9
698.1
714.4
722.8
737.2
754.2

322.8
369.2
366.7
356.9
416.0
442.9
433.9
446.8
488.4
354.9
383.9
435.0
451.3
434.1

462.1
464.1
471.5
487.8
493.7
500.6
516.5

Structures

113.9
138.5
143.3
124.0
141.1
153.2
138.5
139.5
142.8
137.6
127.4
146.6
155.9
134.6
143.0
147.7
140.1
142.3
143.8
145.0
149.4

Producers'
durable
equipment
208.9
230.7
223.4
232.8
274.9
289.7
295.4
307.3
345.6

217.3
256.5
288.4
295.5
299.4
319.1
316.3
331.3
345.5
349.9
355.6
367.0

Residential

122.5
122.3
105.1
152.5
181.1
188.8
216.6
226.9
229.7
114.7
164.9
181.8
195.5
224.4
226.2
228.8
226.6
226.5
229.1
236.6
237.7

Total

-8.3
24.0
-24.5
-7.1
67.7
11.3
15.5
39.2
48.4
59 9
31.0
45.0
7.2
20
14.5
72.0
65.3
43.7
49.7
34.7
61.8

Nonfarm

24

18.3
-23.1
.4
60.5
14.6
17.4
40.7
42.2

-51.1
21.3
41.3
23.7
3.0
17.8
72.8
49.4
33.1
41.9
44.6
43.3

EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
According to the Commerce Department January-March survey, business spending for new plant and equipment is
expected to rise 9.1 percent in 1989, following a rise of 10.3 percent in 1988.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
500

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
500

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

400

400

300

300

200

200

NONMANUFACTU ING

MANUFACTURING
100

100

80

80

601

60

40

40
I
1981

I I

I

JA.SURVEYED QUARTERLY
_£/'SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW
SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

I

I

I I

I
1985

1984

1983

1982

1986

I I
1987

1988

1989

' SECOND HALF
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVSSERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Addenda

Industries surveyed quarterly
Nonmanufacturing

Manufacturing
Period

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985...
1986
1987
1988 '
1989"
1H87- TTT

IV
1988:

I

II

in.

IV '.

1989- I 44

n ..
2nd half

4

All
industries

Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable
goods

Total 1




Public
utilities

Commercial
and
other

314.47
349.26
347.47
343.35
398.99
431.94
427.23
440.66
482.40
525.79

Nonmanufacturing
Manufacturing

112.33
126.54
120.68
116.20
138.82
153.48
142.69
145.90
165.70
178.66

Total

202.15
222.72
226.79
227.15
260.16
278.46
284.54
294.77
316.70
347.12

Surveyed
quarterly
170.47
188.68
189.89
188.58
215.61
233.65
236.78
243.78
263.97
290.12

282.80
315.22
310.58
304.78
354.44
387.13
379.47
389.67
429.67
468.78

112.33
126.54
120.68
116.20
138.82
153.48
142.69
145.90
165.70
178.66

55.36
59.81
55.35
53.08
66.24
73.27
69.14
71.01
78.12
82.65

56.96
66.73
65.33
63.12
72.58
80.21
73.56
74.88
87.58
96.01

170.47
188.68
189.89
188.58
215.61
233.65
236.78
243.78
263.97
290.12

15.99
21.39
20.05
15.19
16.86
15.88
11.22
11.39
12.67
11.79

16.60
15.84
14.79
13.97
16.52
18.02
18.80
18.85
21.35
25.17

37.74
41.21
45.43
44.96
47.48
48.81
46.38
44.88
46.51
49.56

100.14
110.24
109.63
114.45
134.75
150.94
160.38
168.65
183.44
203.60

394.54
406.82

148.20
152.21

71.96
72.28

76.24
79.92

246.34
254.61

11.81
12.32

19.19
19.34

45.29
46.38

170.05
176.56

148 20
152.21

24634
254.61

412.02
426.94
436.01
443.71

158.60
161.69
168.91
173.61

75.70
76.87
79.48
80.42

82.90
84.82
89.43
93.18

253.43
265.25
267.10
270.11

12.59
13.26
12.47
12.35

20.43
20.72
22.17
22.10

44.61
45.43
46.70
49.27

175.79
185.83
185.76
186.38

158.60
161.69
168.91
173.61

253.43
265.25
267.10
270.11

465.51
471.35
469.13

179.88
177.33
178.72

83.12
81.54
82.98

96.77
95.79
95.74

285.63
294.03
290.41

11.89
12.16
11.55

25.43
25.86
24.70

49.61
50.58
49.03

198.70
205.44
205.14

179.88
177.33
178 72

285.63
294.03
29041

1
Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services;
social services and membership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May
1984 survey, are no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nonmanufacturing surveyed annually") for data for these industries.
2
"All industries" plus the part of nonmanufaeturing that is surveyed annually.

10

Transportation

Mining

Total
nonfarm
business 2

Surveyed
annualIy3

31.68
34.04
36.89
38.56
44.55
44.81
47.75
50.99
52.73
57.01

3
Consists of forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services;
social services and membership organizations; and real estate.
4
Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in Januray-March 1989, corrected for
biases.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
In March, civilian employment rose 283,000 and unemployment fell 200,000.
MILLKDNS OF PERSONS*
124

MILLIONS OF PERSC3NS*
124

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

120

^
1

120

"~~"^
r\\LILIAN LABOR F ORPF

116

-^-—"

,...-

__^—-

116

•.-.. '*'*"""'

~-~*~
112

^^-x-^—

108

'

f^^

112

..•••'"'
r^-f-"

108

s — "--T" '
^

104

s"-'"

100

104

CIVILIAN "
EMPLOYMENT

y

100

~-+~~

96

96
^v

^-*

\

^
^

•>*.

-

12

12

^^

8

'

^

4
0

8

.—

\
u ^EMPLOYMEN •

iiinliiiii

1 1 11 1 i 1 1 1M 1 1 1 11 i 1 11 11

1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 11

1 1 11 1 1 1 1 111

1 1 11111 1 1! 1

1984

1985

1986

1983

1982

1981

4
1 111111111 1
1987

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11

him

0

1989

1988

*16 YEARS OF AGE A ND OVER
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE; DEPARTMEN T OF LABOR

[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA]

Period

Noninstitutional
population
including
resident
Armed
Forces
NSA

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986*

1987
1988
1988:
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1989:
Jan
Feb
Mar




Civilian employment

Resident
Armed
Forces
NSA

Labor force
including
resident
Armed
Forces

Employment
including
resident
Armed
Forces

Civilian
labor force

Agricultural

Total

Total

Part time
for
economic
reasons l

95,938
97,030
96,125
97,450
101,685
103,971
106,434
109,232
111,800

4,064
4,499

99,526
100,834
105,005
107,150
109,597
112,440
114,968

3,364
3,368
3,401
3,383
3,321
3,179
3,163
3,208
3,169

120,936
121,328
121,203
121,524
121,658
122,000
121,984
122,091
122,510
122,563

114,129
114,660
114,403
115,001
115,034
115,203
115,370
115,573
115,947
116,009

3,181
3,187
3,110
3,121
3,060
3,142
3,176
3,238
3,238
3,193

123,428
123,181
123,264

116,711
116,853
117,136

108,544

173,939
175,891
178,080
179,912
182,293
184,490
186,322

1,604
1,645
1,668
1,676
1,697
1,706
1,706
1,737
1,709

110,315
111,872
113,226
115,241
117,167
119,540
121,602
123,378

100,907
102,042
101,194
102,510
106,702
108,856
111,303
114,177
116,677

111,550
113,544
115,461
117,834
119,865
121,669

185,847
185,964
186,088
186,247
186,402
186,522
186,666
186,801
186,949
187,098

1,736
1,732
1,714
1,685
1,673
1,692
1,704
1,687
1,705
1,696

122,672
123,060
122,917
123,209
123,331
123,692
123,688
123,778
124,215
124,259

115,865
116,392
116,117
116,686
116,707
116,895
117,074
117,260
117,652
117,705

187,340
187,461
187,581

1,696
1,684
1,684

125,124
124,865
124,948

118,407
118,537
118,820

169,349
171,775

Unemployment

Nonagricultural

106,940
108,670
110,204

99,303
100,397

Total

15
weeks
and
over

5,852
5,997
5,512
5,334
5,345
5,122
4,965

7,637
8,273
10,678
10,717
8,539
8,312
8,237
7,425
6,701

3,485
4,210
2,737
2,305
2,232
1,983
1,610

110,948
111,473
111,293
111,880
111,974
112,061
112,194
112,335
112,709
112,816

5,087
4,953
4,676
5,073
5,102
4,972
4,862
4,727
4,819
5,033

6,807
6,668
6,800
6,523
6,624
6,797
6,614
6,518
6,563
6,554

3,300 113,411
3,223 113,630
3,206 113,930

4,837
4,697
4,709

6,716
6,328
6,128

Civilian
Labor
force
participation
rate
(percent) 2

Employment/
population
ratio
(percent) 2

65.3
65.6
65.9

59.2
59.0
57.8
57.9
59.5
60.1
60.7
61.5
62.3

1,693
1,582
1,614
1,543
1,619
1,636
1,568
1,554
1,502
1,495

65.7
65.9
65.7
65.8
65.9
66.0
66.0
66.0
66.1
66.1

62.0
62.2
62.0
62.3
62.3
62.3
62.4
62.4
62.6
62.6

1,512
1,304
1,310

66.5
66.3
66.3

62.9
62.9
63.0

1,871
2,285

63.8
63.9
64.0
64.0
64.4
64.8

* Data beginning January 1986 not strictly comparable with earlier data because of change in
estimation procedures.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

11

SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
In March, the overall unemployment rate fell to 4.9 percent and the civilian unemployment rate fell to 5.0 percent.
Both rates were 5.1 percent in February.
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

15

10

1989

1985
•UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED..
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group)

Period

7.0
7.5

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

7.1
7.6
9.7
9.6
7.5
7.2

Men
20 years
and over

5.9
6.3

Women
20 years
and
over

Both
sexes
16-19
years

White

By selected groups

Black
and
other

Black

Experienced
wage and
salary
workers

Married
men,
spouse
present

Women
who
maintain
families

8.1
6.8
6.6
6.2
5.4
4.9

19.6
23.2
22.4
18.9
18.6
18.3
16.9
15.3

6.3
6.7
8.6
8.4
6.5
6.2
6.0
5.3
4.7

13.1
14.2
17.3
17.8
14.4
13.7
13.1
11.6
10.4

14.3
15.6
18.9
19.5
15.9
15.1
14.5
13.0
11.7

6.9
7.3
9.3
9.2
7.1
6.8
6.6
5.8
5.2

4.2
4.3
6.5
6.5
4.6
4.3
4.4
3.9

9.2
10.4
11.7
12.2
10.3
10.4
9.8
9.2

3.3

6.4
6.8
8.3

17.8

Fulltime
workers

Parttime
workers

6.9
7.3
9.6
9.5

8.8
9.4

8.1

7.2
6.8
6.6
5.8
5.2

10.5
10.4
9.3
9.3
9.1
8.4
7.6

Labor
force
time lost
(percent) 2

7.9
8.5
11.0
10.9
8.6

7.0
6.2
5.5

July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

5.5
5.4
5.5
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3

5.6
5.5
5.6
5.4
5.4
5.6
5.4
5.3
5.4
5.3

4.9
4.7
4.9
4.6
4.5
4.9
4.6
4.6
4.8
4.7

4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
5.0
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.7

16.4
15.8
15.6
14.1
15.1
15.4
15.5
15.0
14.1
14.8

4.7
4.6
4.7
4.6
4.7
4.9
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.6

11.3
10.6
10.9
10.3
10.1
10.0
9.5
9.8
10.0
10.0

12.5
12.0
12.1
11.7
11.5
11.4
10.9
11.2
11.2
11.6

5.3
5.1
5.3
5.1
5.1
5.3
5.1
5.0
5.1
5.0

3.4
3.1
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.4
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.1

7.5
8.5
8.4
7.9
8.5
7.5
8.1
7.9
7.7
8.2

5.3
5.1
5.2
5.0
5.0
5.3
5.1
5.0
5.0
5.1

7.8
7.5
7.7
7.7
8.0
7.4
7.4
7.4
7.1
7.0

6.5
6.2
6.4
6.3
6.4
6.4
6.3
6.1
6.2
6.3

Jan
Feb
Mar

5.4
5.1
4.9

5.4
5.1
5.0

4.6
4.5
4.2

4.7
4.5
4.6

16.4
14.8
13.7

4.6
4.3
4.2

10.6
10.6
9.8

12.0
11.9
10.9

5.2
4.8
4.7

3.1
3.1
2.9

8.0
8.0
7.9

5.0
4.8
4.8

7.9
7.3
6.2

6.2
5.9
5.8

Mar
Apr
May
June....

1989:

By race

By sex and age
All
civilian
workers

8.8
8.9
6.6
6.2
6.1
5.4
4.8

9.5
9.5
7.4
7.1
6.9
6.1
5.4

1985
1986
1987
1988
1988:

Unemployment
rate,
all
workers l

1

Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces.
A-ggregat"e nours 'ost hy ^e unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours.
2

12



Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

8.1
7.9
7.1
6.3

SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE PROGRAMS
In March, the percentage of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks fell, while the
percentages for 5-14 weeks, for 15-26 weeks, and for 27 weeks and over rose. Both the mean and the median
duration of unemployment rose.
PERCENT DISTRIBUTION

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*

70

70

DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT

REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
60

—

50
JOB LOSERS!

40

40

-

30

20

REENTRANTS

30

20
JOB LEAVERS

\
10 —

-

10
NEW ENTRANTS

0

iiii ill n ii
1985

1989

1986

1987

1988

1989

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Duration of unemployment

Period

Unemployment
(thousands)

Percent distribution

Reason for unemployment:
percent distribution

Number of
weeks

Less
than
5
weeks

5-14
weeks

15-26
weeks

27
weeks
and
over

Average
(mean)

Median

7,637
8,273
10,678
10,717
8,539
8,312
8,237
7,425
6,701

43.1
41.7
36.4
33.3
39.2
42.1
41.9
43.7
46.0

32.3
30.7
31.0
27.4
28.7
30.2
31.0
29.6
30.0

13.8
13.6
16.0
15.4
12.9
12.3
12.7
12.7
12.0

10.7
14.0
16.6
23.9
19.1
15.4
14.4
14.0
12.1

11.9
13.7
15.6
20.0
18.2
15.6
15.0
14.5
13.5

6.5
6.9
8.7
10.1
7.9
6.8
6.9
6.5
5.9

51.7
51.6
58.7
58.4
51.8
49.8
48.9
48.0
46.1

Dec

6,807
6,668
6,800
6,523
6,624
6,797
6,614
6,518
6,563
6,554

44.9
46.6
45.5
47.3
44.9
46.8
47.4
47.4
47.6
46.2

30.2
29.6
30.6
29.2
30.7
29.0
28.8
28.5
29.5
31.1

12.5
11.4
11.7
11.4
12.4
12.3
11.8
12.2
12.0
11.5

12.4
12.4
12.2
12.1
11.9
11.9
12.1
11.9
10.9
11.2

13.8
13.5
13.8
13.2
13.5
13.5
13.5
13.4
12.6
12.8

6.4
5.8
5.9
5.9
6.2
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.6
5.8

Feb
Mar

6,716
6,328
6,128

47.0
50.6
49.4

30.7
29.1
29.4

11.2
10.4
10.5

11.1
10.0
10.7

12.7
12.1
12.4

5.7
5.3
5.4

Job
leavers

State
programs
Insured
unemployment

Insured
unemployment,
all
regular
programs
(unadjusted) 1

Reentrants

New
entrants

11.7
11.2
7.9
7.7
9.6
10.6
12.3
13.0
14.7

25.2
25.4
22.3
22.5
25.6
27.1
26.2
26.6
27.0

11.4
11.9
11.1
11.3
13.0
12.5
12.5
12.4
12.2

3,350
3,047
4,061
3,396
2,476
2,611
2,650
2,332
2,056

488
460
583
438
377
396
378
328
306

3,837
3,410
4,594
3,775
2,561
2,693
2,746
2,401
2,111

45.7
44.7
47.4
46.7
46.1
46.2
46.7
45.9
46.2
46.5

15.5
14.8
13.9
14.5
13.8
14.6
14.9
15.3
14.7
15.1

26.1
27.2
26.7
26.6
28.1
27.3
26.8
27.2
26.9
26.2

12.7
13.3
12.0
12.2
11.9
11.9
11.5
11.6
12.2
12.1

2,114
2,087
2,051
2,050
2,082
2,069
2,025
1,972
1,989
2,032

308
305
311
304
327
305
293
296
301
309

2,536
2,208
1,949
1,877
2,044
1,905
1,722
1,667
1,856
'2,201

46.4
45.2
46.0

14.7
15.5
14.4

27.3
27.3
28.1

11.6
12.0
11.6

2,061
2,105
2,143

293
309
323

'2,685
2,689

Job
losers

Initial
claims

Weekly average, thousands

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1988- Mar
May

July
Sept
Oct

Nov

1
Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands), ex-servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroad (RR) programs. Also includes Federal and State extended benefit programs. Does not include Federal supplemental compensation program.




Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employrr
tration).

13

NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 180,000 in March.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)

26

^

SERVICES

v---

100
ALL NONAGRICULTURAL
ESTABLISHMENTS

24

—

90

'"'"""

-

—

"•"'"

22

—

80

-

20
RETAIL TRAD :

—

SERVICE-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES

70

18

^—-

60

7

— --—

( 3OVERNMEN T

•

,

\

—-1

18

40

„,,,!,,,,, 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

{I 1 1 1 I 1 I I I I t

GOODS-PRODUCING
INDUSTRIES

20 Lmliuii
1985

111M
1986

1987

1988

1985

1989

1987

1

Service-producing industries

Manufacturing
Construction

Total

Durable
goo s

Nondurable
goods

Total

Transportation
and
public
utilities

Wholesale
trade

90,406
91,156
89,566
90,200
94,496
97,519
99,525
102,310
106,039

25,658
25,497
23,813
23,334
24,727
24,859
24,558
24,784
25,565

4,346
4,188
3,905
3,948
4,383
4,673
4,816
4,998
5,293

20,285
20,170
18,181
18,434
19,378
19,260
18,965
19,065
19,539

12,187
12,109
11^039
10,732
11^505
11,490
11,230
11,218
11,516

8,098
8,061
7J741
7,702
7373
7,770
7^734
7,847
8,023

64,748
65,659
65^753
66,866
69J69
72,660
74^967
77,525
80^475

5,146
5,165
5,082
4,954
5,159
5,238
5,255
5,385
5,584

5,275
5,358
5,278
5,268
5,555

1988: Mar.... 105,020
Apr
105,281
May.... 105,489
June . . . 106,057
July.... 106,271
Aug.... 106,425
Sept.... 106,737
Get
106,973
Nov.... 107,419
107,641
Dec

25,330
25,435
25,466
25,592
25,663
25,639
25,648
25,743
25,849
25,889

5,192
5,238
5,237
5,308
5,330
5,340
5,365
5,366
5,413
5,430

19,405
19,460
19,490
19,544
19,593
19,560
19,549
19,648
19,714
19,740

11,411
11,459
11,477
11,515
11,566
11,547
11,537
11,595
11,637
11,651

7,994
8,001
8,013
8,029
8,027
8,013
8,012
8,053
8,077
8,089

79,690
79,846
80,023
80,465
80,608
80,786
81,089
81,230
81,570
81,752

5,530
5,543
5,556
5,582
5,598
5,605

6,061

Jan '... 108,065
Feb r... 108,345
Mar ".. 108,525

26,048
26,014
25,988

5,537
5,515
5,466

19,793
19,782
19,800

11,686
11,667
11,670

8,107
8,115
8,130

82,017
82,331
82,537

5,692
5,706
5,697

1989:

1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who
received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived
from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricuitural employment of the civilian labor
force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants;
which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad

14



1989

seasonally adjusted]

Goods-producing industries

Total

1988

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of wage and salary workers;

2

!,,,,,.

1 1 1 1 T 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1t

1986

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

Total
nonagricultural
employment

1 t t t 11 1 M 1 1

CONSTRUCTION

_v

30

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988

Illlllllill Illlllllill
<

MANUFACTURING
~^^_^

Period

--W

Tnfiniiii Illlllllill

20

50

~* —

^

5,618
5,631
5,658
5,670

5,717
5,753
5,872

6,156

Retail
trade

15,035
15,189
15,179
15,613
16,545
17,356
17,930
18,509
19,206

Finance,
insurance,
and real
estate

5,160
5,298

5,341
5,468
5,689
5,955
6,283
6,549
6,679

6,651

Government
Services
Total

17,890
18,619
19,036
19,694
20,797
22,000
23,053
24,196
25,464

16,241
16,031
15,837
15,869
16,024
16,394
16,693
17,015
17,387

2,866
2,772
2,739
2,774
2,807
2,875
2,899
2,943
2,971

17,320
17,308
17,350
17,379
17,330
17,359
17,532
17,492
17,564
17,541

2,970
2,963
2,957
2,951
2,951
2,956
2,989
2,989
2,989
2,990

17,559
17,627
17,630

2,981
2,987
2,984

6,650
6,656
6,679
6,684
6,689
6,692
6,708
6,725

6,301

19,050
19,093
19,130
19,205
19,261
19,279
19,291
19,327
19,401
19,429

6,741

25,078
25,163
25,216
25,472
25,561
25,662
25,737
25,826
25,947
26,070

6,332
6,360
6,385

19,556
19,615
19,691

6,733
6,755
6,758

26,145
26,268
26,376

6,089

6,115
6,148
6,174
6,192
6,219
6,246
6,275

Federal

weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the
working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing
establishments,
2
Includes mining, not shown separately.
Source: ]

lartment of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLY
EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Manufacturing
Total
private
nonagricultural l

Period

1980
1981

1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1988- Mar
May
July
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

1989' Jan T
Feb r
Mar"

Total

Average gross weekly earnings

Average gross hourly
earnings

Average weekly hours

Current dollars

Total private
nonagricultural 1
Total
private
nonagricultural *

Overtime

Manufacturing

Current
dollars

1977
dollars 2

Manufacturing

Construction

Retail
trade

Percent change from a
year earlier, total
private
nonagriculttirai 3
Current
dollars

1977
dollars

35.3
35.2
34.8
35.0
35.2
34.9
34.8
34.8
34.8

39.7
39.8
38.9
40.1
40.7
40.5
40.7
41.0
41.1

2.8
2.8
2.3
3.0
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.7
3.9

$6.66
7.25
7.68
8.02
8.32
8.57
8.76
8.98
9.29

$7.27
7.99
8.49
8.83
9.19
9.54
9.73
9.91
10.17

$235.10
255.20
267.26
280.70
292.86
299.09
304.85
312.50
323.29

$172.74
170.13
168.09
171.26
172.78
170.42
171.07
169.28
168.29

$288.62
318.00
330.26
354.08
374.03
386.37
396.01
406.31
417.99

$367.78

399.26
426.82
442.97
458.51
464.46
466.75
479.68
491.56

$147.38
158.03
163.85
171.05
174.33
174.64
176.08
178.41
183.62

6.9
8.5
4.7
5.0
4.3
2.1
1.9
2.5
3.5

-5.8
-1.5
-1.2
1.9
.9
-1.4
.4
-1.0
-.6

34.6
34.9
34.7
34.7
34.9
34.6
34.7
34.9
34.8
34.7

40.9
41.2
41.0
41.1
41.1
41.0
41.2
41.2
41.2
40.8

3.7
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
4.0
3.9
3.9

9.16
9.23
9.27
9.27
9.32
9.32
9.37
9.43
9.42
9.45

10.05
10.11
10.15
10.18
10.17
10.20
10.26
10.28
10.29
10.31

316.94
322.13
321.67
321.67
325.27
322.47
325.14
329.11
327.82
327.92

167.25
169.36
168.41
167.89
169.06
166.82
167.68
169.03
167.77
167.39

411.05
416.53
416.15
418.40
417.99
418.20
422.71
423.54
423.95
420.65

487.62
491.34
485.42
495.22
491.23
489.72
492.91
499.05
500.89
492.18

180.38
182.50
182.12
183.04
185.47
183.28
183.23
186.00
186.18
187.46

2.4
4.2
3.1
3.3
4.2
2.8
4.2
4.1
3.3
3.9

-1.3
.4
-.7

34.8
34.6
34.6

41.1
41.1
40.9

3.9
3.9
3.9

9.49
9.50
9.54

10.32
10.35
10.38

330.25
328.70
330.08

167.55
166.09
165.95

424.15
425.39
424.54

490.12
491.61
502.36

187.11
185.83
185.47

4.2
3.4
4.1

-.3
-1.3
-.8

1

Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.
Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban i .ge earners and clerical
workers (on a 1977= 100 base).
2

3

.2
-1.2
-.0
-.1
-.9
-.5

Based on seasonally unadjusted data.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX—PRIVATE INDUSTRY
[Not seasonally adjusted]
Percent change from

Index (June 1981 = 100)

12 months earlier

3 months earlier
Period

1980- Dec
1981- Dec

1982:
1983198419851986198719881986-

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Mar
June
Sept
Dec

...

1987' Mar
June
Sept
Dec
1988: Mar
Sept
Dec
1989: Mar
1

. ..

Total
compensation

Wages and
salaries

94.7
104.0
110.7
117.0
122.7
127.5
131.6
136.0
142.6
128.9
129.0
130.8
131.6
132.9
133.8
135.1
136.0
138.1
139.8
141.2
142.6
144.4

95.4
103.8
110.3
115.8
120.6
125.6
129.5
133.8
139.3
126.8
129.9
128.8
129.5
130.8
131.7
133.0
133.8
135.1
136.6
137.9
139.3
140.8

Benefits l

93.0
104.3
111.7
120.0
127.9
132.4
136.9
141.7
151.3
134.2
134.8
136.1
136.9
138.1
139.3
140.3
141.7
146.1
148.2
149.7
151.3
154.0

Employer costs for employee benefits.
NOTE.—The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free from the
influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries.

Total
compensation

2.1
2.0
1.3
1.2
1.3
.6
.6
.7
1.0

1.1
.8
.7
.6
1.0
.7
1.0
.7
1.5
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.3

Wages and
salaries

Benefits '

2.0
1.8
1.2
1.1
1.2
.6
.5
.6
1.0
1.0
.9
.7
.5

2.2
2.3
1.5
1.3
1.4
.5
.6
1.0
1.1
1.4
.4
1.0
.6

1.0
.7
1.0
.6
1.0
1.1
1.0
1.0

.9
.9
.7
1.0

1.1

3.1
1.4
1.0
1.1
1.8

Total
compensation

Wages and
salaries

9.0
8.8
6.3
5.0
4.1
4.1
3.1
3.3
4.1
3.9
3.7
3.1
3.1

9.8
9.8
6.4
5.7
4.9
3.9
3.2
3.3
4.9
• 3.8
3.8
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.3
3.3
3.9
4.5
4.5
4.9

3.2
3.0
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.7
3.7
4.1

4.6

4.2

Benefits l

11.8
12.2
7.1
7.4
6.6
3.5
3.4
3.5
6.8
3.2
3.5
3.3
3.4
2.9
3.3
3.1
3.5
5.8
6.4
6.7
6.8
5.4

Data exclude farm and household workers.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,

15
97-472 O - 89 - 2



PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR
Output per hour of
all persons

Period
Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Output J
Business
sector

Compensation per
hour 3

Hours of all
persons 2

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Unit labor costs

Real compensation
per hour 4
Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Implicit price
deflator 5

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

1977 = 100; quarterly data seasonally adjusted

1983
1984

99.3
100.7
100.3
103.0
105.5

98.8
99.8
99.2
102.5
104.6

106.7
108,9
105.5
109.9
119.2

106.7
108.5
104.9
110.1
119.2

107.5
108.2
105.2
106.8
112.9

108.0
108.7
105.7
107.5
114.0

131.5
143.7
154.9
161.4
167.9

131.3
143.6
154.8
161.5
167.8

96.7
95.8
97.3
98.2
97.9

96.6
95.8
97.2
98.3
97.9

132.5
142.7
154.5
156.7
159.1

132.9
144.0
156.0
157.6
160.4

127.6
139.8
148.1
153.0
158.2

127.8
140.3
149.2
154.3
159.0

1985
1986
1987
1988 r

107.7
110.1
111.0
112.2

106.1
108.2
109.0
110.6

124.2
128.6
133.3
139.4

123.9
128.2
133.0
139.9

115.3
116.8
120.1
124.3

116.8
118.5
122.1
126.6

175.5
183.1
190.4
199.4

174.9
182.3
189.4
198.0

98.8
101.2
101.5
102.1

98.5
100.8
101.0
101.4

162.9
166.3
171.5
177.8

164.9
168.6
173.8
179.1

162.2
165.8
170.5
175.7

163.8
167.8
172.5
177.3

IV
IV
IV
IV

101.0
103.8
105.9
108.5

99.7
103.3
104.9
106.5

105.0
113.6
120.8
125.9

104.2
114.1
120.7
125.5

103.9
109.4
114.0
116.1

104.5
110.4
115.1
117.9

158.3
163.6
170.3
178.8

158.2
163.4
170.2
177.9

98.0
98.1
98.0
99.4

97.9
97.9
98.0
98.9

156.8
157.6
160.7
164.8

158.7
158.2
162.3
167.1

150.2
155.2
159.8
163.7

151.4
156.2
161.0
165.5

1986: HI
IV

110.0
109.8

108.0
107.8

128.5
129.3

128.1
128.8

116.8
117.8

118.6
119.5

184.0
186.2

183.1
185.4

101.6
102.1

101.2
101.7

167.3
169.6

169.5
172.1

167.0
167.5

169.0
169.5

1987- I
II

109.9
110.6
111.7
111.8

107.8
108.6
109.6
109.9

130.5
132.2
134.3
136.2

130.1
131.9
134.1
136.0

118.8
119.5
120.3
121.8

120.7
121.5
122.3
123.8

187.3
189.0
191.1
194.0

186.4
187.9
190.0
192.9

101.4
101.1
101.3
101.9

100.9
100.5
100.7
101.4

170.5
170.8
171.1
173.5

172.9
173.0
173.3
175.6

168.7
170.1
171.2
171.9

170.9
171.9
173.2
174.0

112.8
111.8
112.3
112.0

110.8
110.1
110.7
110.9

138.0
138.8
139.8
140.9

137.9
139.2
140.5
142.1

122.3
124.1
124.5
125.8

124.4
126.4
126.9
128.1

195.8
198.1
201.1
203.2

194.6
196.6
199.4
201.9

101.9
102.0
102.4
102.3

101.3
101.3
101.5
101.7

173.5
177.1
179.0
181.4

175.7
178.6
180.2
182.0

172.3
174.7
176.8
179.0

174.2
176.2
178.0
180.6

113.0

111.1

143.2

143.4

126.8

129.1

206.0

204.8

102.4

101.8

182.3

184.3

180.4

182.0

1980
1981
1982

1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:

m
IV

1988: I
II

mr

IV ....

1989: I"

Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates

-0.3
1.4
-.4
2.7
2.5

-0.4
1.0
-.6
3.3
2.1

11
2.1
31
4.2
8.4

-1.2
1.7
-3.3
5.0
8.3

-0.8
.7
-2.8
1.5
5.7

-0.7
.7
27
1.6
6.0

10.5
9.2
7.8
4.2
4.1

10.5
9.4
7.8
4.3
3.9

-2.7
-1.0
1.6
.9
2

-2.7
-.8
1.5
1.1
— .4

10.9
7.7
8.3
1.4
1.5

11.0
8.3
8.4
1.0
1.8

9.0
9.6
5.9
3.3
3.3

9.7
9.7
6.3
3.5
3.0

1985
1986
1987
... .
1988 r.

2.1
2.2
.8
1.1

1.4
2.0
.8
1.5

3.9
3.5
3.8
5.2

2.1
1.3
2.8
3.5

2.5
1.5
3.0
3.7

4.5
4.3
4.0
4.8

4.2
4.2
3.8
4.6

.9
2.4
.3
.6

.6
2.3
.2
.4

2.4
2.1
3.1
3.7

2.8
2.2
3.1
3.1

2.5
2.3
2.8
3.1

3.0
2.4
2.8
2.8

1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:

IV
IV
IV
IV

3.0
3.1
1.7
.7

2.4
1.4
1.2
.2

4.2
3.5
3.6
4.6
5
10.4
3.5
3.6

-1.2
9.8
3.1
3.5

-3.4
7.1
1.8
2.9

-3.5
8.2
1.9
3.4

4.5
5.5
3.8
5.4

5.0
4.3
3.9
5.1

3.2
1.4
.3
1.2

3.8
.2
.4
.9

1.5
2.3
2.1
4.7

2.6
2.8
2.7
4.9

2.4
4.8
2.7
2.6

3.0
3.1
3.3
2.1

1986: HI
IV

-1.4
-.8

-1.5
-.9

.9
2.5

.8
2.4

2.3
3.4

2.4
3.3

4.4
4.8

4.3
5.1

2.0
2.0

1.9
2.2

5.8
5.7

5.9
6.1

5.0
1.1

5.1
1.2

.3
2.7
3.9
.6

.0
3.2
3.7
.9

3.7
5.3
6.6
5.7

4.0
5.7
6.8
5.9

3.4
2.5
2.6
5.1

4.0
2.5
2.9
4.9

2.5
3.6
4.6
6.2

2.1
3.4
4.5
6.4

-2.8
-1.2
.9
2.4

-3.2
— 1.4
.7
2.6

2.2
.8
.7
5.6

2.1
.2
.7
5.4

3.0
3.2
2.8
1.4

3.3
2.3
3.1
1.8

n
m

3.5
-3.4
1.7
-1.0

3.4
-2.4
2.0
1.0

5.5
2.4
2.8
3.3

5.6
4.0
3.5
4.8

1.9
6.0
1.1
4.3

2.1
6.6
1.5
3.7

3.7
4.8
6.2
4.3

3.5
4.2
5.7
5.2

.0
.3
1.4
2

-.1
-.3
.9
.7

.2
8.5
4.4
5.4

.1
6.8
3.7
4.1

1.0
5.8
4.7
5.1

.6
4.7
4.1
6.0

1989: I"

3.5

.5

6.7

3.6

3.1

3.1

5.7

5.7

.3

.3

2.1

5.2

3.3

3.1

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

.

1987- I

n
m
IV

1988: I

IV * ....

1

Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1982 dollars.
2
Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family
workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data.
3
Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private
benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed.

16




4

Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
5
Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.
NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector.
Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may
differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Industrial production was unchanged in March, for the second month in a row. The index for March was 4.6
percent above its year-earlier level.
INDEX, 1977 = 100* (RATIO SCALE)
160
140

120

INDEX, 1977= TOO*/(RATIO SCALE)
240
FINAL PRODUCTS
220

TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
_— -^*r

-1•>

.

200
180

r- ^-S_
\

_•»-""

^—

BUSINESS
EQUIPMENT

140

MANUF ACTURING PRODUCTION

=s

«•**""

140 ~ DURABLE

••,'-•"*•""

120

•" *• "* "r^V-""^^

~~T"
CONSUMER
GOODS

NONDURABLE

120

EFENSE AND
SPACE
EQUIPMENT

•^

160

.^-.X-,

_,..'-•

160

Minimi) Minium

100

n

100 Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll
100

iimliim iimlimi iiiiilinii

140

UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION

120

A

uTILITIES
V

••_,*

V

100

PERCENT*
100
CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE
(TOTAL INDUSTRY)
90

Illllllllll Illllllllll

PC]
mulmii iiniliiiii
1985

1986

** w **^

-X-A"T'~

80 •"-ii i

^—
TN
MININ G

70

i .

'

/"
Illllllllll

1987

Illllllllll Illllllllll
1988
1989

"~^~i
iiiiiiiiin

_.

,

*K-——-|

Illllllllll Illllllllll
1985
1986

1987

-

-

Illllllllll Illllllllll
1989
1988

'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period
Index,
1977 = 100

1977 proportion
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988

100.0
108.6
111.0
103.1
109.2
121.4
123.7
125.1
129.8
137.2

1988: Mar

Capacity utilization
rate, percent *

Industry production indexes, 1977 = 100

Total
industrial
production

Manufacturing

Percent
change
from year
earlier

Mining

Durable

Total

Utilities

Nondurable

Total
industry

Manufacturing

5.9
11.2
1.9
1.1
3.8
5.7

84.31
108.2
110.5
102.2
110.2
123.4
126.4
129.1
134.7
142.7

49.10
109.1
111.1
99.9
107.7
124.2
127.6
128.4
133.1
141.9

35.11
107.0
109.7
105.5
113.7
122.3
124.6
130.1
136.8
143.9

9.83
112.4
117.5
109.3
102.9
111.1
108.9
100.4
100.7
r
103.4

5.96
107.3
107.1
104.8
105.2
110.7
111.1
108.5
110.3
114.3

80.9
79.9
72.1
74.6
81.0
80.4
79.4
80.7
83.3

79.3
78.2
70.3
73.9
80.5
80.1
79.7
81.1
r
83.5

Dec r

134.7
135.4
136.1
136.5
138.0
138.5
138.6
139.4
139.9
140.4

5.7
6.3
6.2
5.7
5.7
5.5
5.7
5.2
5.1
4.9

140.0
140.8
141.8
142.1
143.6
144.0
144.4
145.3
145.8
146.3

138.8
139.7
141.5
141.7
142.9
143.2
143.8
144.6
145.2
145.7

141.7
142.3
142.1
142.6
144.6
145.1
145.3
146.3
146.7
147.1

102.7
104.7
102.6
103.0
104.3
103.8
103.7
103.1
104.7
104.9

113.3
111.0
111.6
113.2
114.4
117.8
113.0
113.9
113.7
115.4

82.4
82.7
82.9
83.0
83.7
83.8
83.7
84.0
84.1
84.3

82.7
82.9
83.3
83.3
84.0
84.0
84.0
84.3
84.4
84.4

1989: Jan r
Feb r
Mar p

141.0
141.0
141.0

4.9
4.9
4.6

147.4
147.5
147.4

146.6
146.8
146.6

148.6
148.6
148.6

103.2
101.6
102.1

113.5
116.1
115.5

84.4
84.2
84.0

84.9
84.7
84.4

May

July
Sept
Oct
Nov

1

Output as percent of capacity.




19
2.2
71

Source; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

17

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND
SELECTED MANUFACTURES
[1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Materials

Products
Intermediate products

Final products
Equipment

Consumer goods
Period
Total
Total

1977 proportion

44.77

25.52

1980
1981
1982
1983 ..
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 ....
1988- Mar ..
Apr
May.

112.2
115.2
109.5
114.7
127.3
131.0
132.5
136.8
144.3
141.8
142.5
143.5
144.0
145.0
145.8
145.8
146.4
146.8
147.7
148.5
148.9
148.7

102.7
104.1
101.4
109.3
118.0
119.8
124.0
127.8
133.9
131.2
131.9
132.7
133.0
134.2
135.0
134.8
136.4
136.8
138.2
138.6
139.0
138.4

June
July

Aug
Sept
Oct...

Nov
Dec r

1989- Jan r
Feb r
Mar p
1

Durable
goods

Nondurable goods

6.89
88.4
89.7
82.9
98.5
112.2
112.5
115.6
120.2
125.3
120.4
123.3
125.6
125.3
125.3
125.7
126.3
129.3
129.2
131.9
131.8
132.4
131.3

18.63
108.1
109.3
108.3
113.3
120.1
122.5
127.1
130.6
137.1
135.1
135.1
135.4
135.8
137.5
138.5
138.0
139.0
139.7
140.5

141.1
141.5
141.1

Total '

19.25
124.7
129.9
120.2
121.7
139.6
145.8
143.6
148.9
158.2

155.9
156.5
157.7
158.5
159.4
160.1
160.4
159.7
159.9
160.4
161.6
162.0
162.3

Business

14.34
125.1
127.6
113.6
115.4
134.2
140.2
139.5
144.5
157.6
153.3
154.6
156.9
158.1
159.3
160.2
160.8
160.2
161.2
162.6

164.4
165.4
165.5

Defense
and
space
equipment

3.67
115.4
119.8
133.0
. 143.1
156.4
171.4
182.0
188.9
r
185.8
189.9
187.9
185.5
184.6
184.9
184.9
184.5
184.0
182.2
180.5
180.4
179.5
178.8

Total

12.94
106.9
107.3
101.7
111.2
124.7
129.3
136.2
143.4
151.5

149.9
149.6
150.4
150.0
151.6
152.3
152.9
154.0
154.2
155.0
156.5
156.1
156.6

Construction
supplies

5.95
100.6
98.6
88.3
100.6
114.0
119.2
126.4
131.5
138.6
137.3
137.6
138.8
137.6
138.4
138.1
138.4
140.0
140.7
141.4
143.3
141.5
142.0

Business
supplies

Total

6.99
112.3
114.7
113.1
120.3
133.8
137.9
144.6
153.5
162.5
160.7
159.9
160.3
160.6
162.8
164.4
165.2
165.9
165.7
166.7
168.7
168.6

42.28

105.3
107.7
96.7
102.8
114.2
114.3
113.8
118.2
125.2
122.5
123.6
123.9
124.5
126.4
126.5
126.5
127.5
128.3
128.3
128.3
127.9
128.0

Energy

11.69
105.5
104.7
101.2
98.4
103.9
103.3
99.7
99.8
101.5

100.6
101.0
99.5
101.3
102.7
103.2
101.5
101.3
102.3
102.6
100.3
100.4
100.9

Includes oil and gas well drilling and manufactured homes, not shown separately.

[1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Nondurable manufactures

Durable manufactures
Transportation
equipment

Primary metals
Period
Total

1977 proportion

1980
1981

.

1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 .
1988- Mar ..
May..
June
July
Sept

Oct
Nov
Dec r
1989: Jan '.
Feb r
Mar p

5.33
90.4
95.0
65.8
73.0
82.3
80.4
75.1
81.3
89.2
85.1
85.3
89.2
87.5
91.5
90.8
93.1
94.2
92.7
90.0
93.5
91.7
91.8

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

18




Iron and
steel

3.49
86.3
92.5
57.5
66.1
73.4
70.4
63.4
70.6
78.1
74.2
74.5
78.6
74.2
80.2
78.9
81.4
83.1
80.8
77.6
82.8
80.2

Fabricated
metal
products

6.46
101.8
101.6
86.6
89.1
102.6
107.1
108.0
111.0
120.9
118.8
118.8
119.8
120.4
121.7
122.1
122.5
122.6
124.6
125.1
124.9
124.9
124.8

Nonelectrical
machinery

9.54
123.3
129.8
115.6
118.3
141.8
146.2
145.0
152.7
170.8
164.6
167.2
170.3
171.2
173.1
174.1
174.8
173.8
175.4
177.8
179.5
180.8
181.3

Electrical
machinery

7.15
130.3
134.1
128.4
143.8
170.5
168.3
165.7
172.3
180.1
176.6
178.7
179.1
179.5
181.5
182.2
181.8
183.0
182.2
180.9
180.9
181.8
181.9

Total

9.13
96.9
95.1
87.6
99.2
112.2
122.8
127.5
129.2
132.1
130.0
130.4
133.1
132.8
131.9
131.8
132.7
134.8
135.2
136.8
136.8
136.6
134.8

Motor
vehicles
and
parts

5.55
71.1
71.6
66.8
85.8
104.4
111.9
111.5
111.8
117.2
113.0
114.8
119.6
119.1
116.6
117.5
118.5
121.7
122.9
125.5
124.9
123.3
119.1

Lumber
and
products

2.30
92.9
90.1
82.8
100.2
109.1
114.3
124.1
130.3
137.3
137.8
138.0
139.8
136.4
136.6
133.8
133.5
137.5
139.4
143.0
140.8
139.1

Apparel
products

2.79
97.3
96.1
87.3
95.3
102.7
100.4
103.1
107.4
109.1
108.7
109.2
108.6
109.3
109.4
108.9
109.9
109.5
110.1
108.8
110.2

Printing
and
publishing

4.54
115.1
118.6
120.2
129.8
146.5
151.4
160.9
172.1
184.2
180.4
181.8
180.7
182.3
184.9
186.7
188.0
188.1
188.5
188.0
192.2
193.5
194 2

cals

and

Foods

products

8.05
106.4
112.6
103.8
114.0
121.6
126.4
132.0
140.2
r

!51.9

146.4
148.9
149.1
150.5
153.4
154.8
155.3
156.7
157.5
158.1
158.9
159.0

7.96
111.4
113.7
114.9
120.4
126.9
130.5
134.4
137.8
r
142.7
141.1
140.3
141.0
141.3
143.3
143.3
143.2
144.0
145.7
145.8
146.7
146.7

NEW CONSTRUCTION
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Construction contracts 3

Private
Total new
construction
expenditures

Period

Residential
Total

New housing
units

Total '

Commercial
and
industrial 2

Other

Federal,
State, and
local

Total value
index
(1982 = 100)

Commercial
and industrial
floor space
(millions of
square feet)

Billions of dollars
1979

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987 .
1988 '

252.4
251.7
260.2
246.6
281.3
328.6
355.7
386.1
398.9
403.1

200.7
193.3
203.6
192.9
227.5
271.0
291.7
314.7
323.8
325.1

116.4
100.4
99.2
84.7
125.5
153.8
158.5
187.1
194.8
195.3

403.6
396.2
398.5
395.7
404.2
403.2
406.9
407.7
411.5
421.0

324.3
318.5
320.2
317.7
324.7
326.8
327.2
330.7
332.3
335.6

195.6
192.0
190.4
188.1
194.2
195.4
196.9
200.0
200.6
201.7

418.0
414.8
413.5

336.5
333.3
339.4

201.4
199.6
200.7

42.0
46.7
55.0
58.7
53.8
68.6
82.7
78.0
76.5
76.4

42.3
46.2
49.4
49.5
48.1
48.5
50.5
49.5
52.5
53.4

51.7
58.5
56.5
53.7
53.8
57.7
64.1
71.4
75.0
78.0

109

139.2
138.5
137.7
136.8
136.4
137.1
138.7
140.5
142.7
144.2

76.4
76.8
78.1
77.5
77.1
76.7
75.1
76.0
76.3
77.5

52.3
49.7
51.8
52.2
53.3
54.7
55.1
54.8
55.3
56.4

79.3
77.7
78.3
78.0
79.5
76.4
79.7
77.0
79.2
85.4

156
158
166
169
160
162
157
164
158
163

910
852
860
904
954
905
880
841
839
942

145.4
145.3
143.3

80.4
80.4
84.1

54.6
53.3
54.6

81.4
81.5
74.1

155
148
150

943
850
856

89.3
69.6
69.4
57.0
94.6
113.8
114.7
133.2
139.9
139.2

97
100
100
124
136
150
158
164
161

Annual rates

Annual rates

1988- Mar
May
July
Sept
Oct T
Nov '
Dec r

1989- Jan r
Feb p .
Marp
1
2
3

1,059
904
919
690
756
955
1,097
1,016
1,019
942

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company, F.W. Dodge Division.

Includes residential improvements, not shown separately.
Includes hotels and motels.
F.W. Dodge series.

NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES
[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]
New private homes

New private housing units
Period

Units started, by type of structure
Total

1,745.1
1,292.2
1,084.2
1,062.2
1,703.0
1,749.5
1,741.8
1,805.4
1,620.5
1,488.1

1979..
1980

1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988

1 unit

1,194.1
852.2
705.4
662.6
1,067.6
1,084.2
1,072.4
1,179.4
1,146.4
1,081.3

2^t units

122.0
109.5
91.1
80.0
113.5
121.4
93.4
84.0
65.3
58.8

5 or more units

429.0
330.5
287.7
319.6
522.0
544.0
576.1
542.0
408.7
348.0

Units
authorized

1,551.8
1,190.6
985.5
1,000.5
1,605.2
1,681.8
1,733.3
1,769.4
1,534.8
1,463.0

Units
completed

Homes sold

Homes for
sale at end of
period 1

Vacancy rate
for rental
housing units
(percent) 2

1,870.8
1,501.6
1,265.7
1,005.5
1,390.3
1,652.2
1,703.3
1,756.4
1,668.8
r
1,529.8

436
412
623
639
688
750
671
676

= 397
337
275
253
301
353
346
357
365
366

5.4
5.4
5.0
5.3
5.7
5.9
6.5
7.3
7.7
7.7

8.0

709
545

Seasonally adjusted annu al rates

1988: Mar
May
July
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
r

1989- Jan
Feb r
Mar *
1
2
3

1,528
1,576
1,392
1,463
1,478
1,459
1,463
1,532
1,567
1,577

1,169
1,087
1,001
1,088
1,067
1,076
1,039
1,136
1,138
1,141

57
58
53
62
50
59
62
63
68
65

302
431
338
313
361
324
362
333
361
371

1,476
1,449
1,436
1,493
1,420
1,464
1,394
1,516
1,516
1,566

1,602
1,661
1,461
1,517
1,528
1,539
1,536
1,516
1,429
r
1,539

665
677
679
716
701
712
691
718
650
r
669

372
367
370
367
365
363
361
353
364
366

1,678
1,476
1,397

1,199
1,034
994

66
56
48

413
386
355

1,507
1,415
1,230

1,540
1,584

694
621
587

370
375
376

Seasonally adjusted.
Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable
New series beginning March 1979.




7.7
7.8
7.3

7.3

NOTE. — Beginning 1984, units authorized are for 17,000 permit-issuing places; for 1978-83 data
are for 16,000 places.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

19

BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade
In February, manufacturing and trade sales fell 0.8 percent and inventories rose $3.8 billion. (Series revised; see
note below.) In March, according to advance data, retail sales rose 0.1 percent, following a decline of 0.6 percent
in February.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

HUU

240

—

220

^-j

700

200

\
MANU FACTURING AND
TRAD)E INVENTOFilES

600

180

RETAIL INVENTORIES"

—
160
500

^.x ^

» *

M \NUFACTUR

400'

140

—

r"\"
NG

r\

120

Ah<D TRADE S/> LES

RETAIL SALES

—
100

Illllllllll Illllllllll

300

Illllllllll

RATIO*
I.BO

—

-

_

INVENTORY-SALES RATIO

RETAIL

X
l.iSO,

krc^C-

?^T200

"».-«'' '-'"

1.40

MANUFACTURING

-

-

AND TRADE

1.20

/m/lm/i Mfiilmn mnlmii iimlimi
,1985

1986

1987

1988

lllltllllll

1 1 1 1 ill 1 1 n n in li nn

1.OO

1989

1986

1985

1988

1987

'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Manufacturing and
trade '

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Wholesale

Sales 2

Sales

2

Inventories 3

Inventory-sales ratio 4

Retail
Sales

Period
Inventories 3

1989

Total

2

Durable
goods
stores

Inventories

3

Manufacturing
and
trade '

Retail

Total

Durable
goods
stores

Nondurable goods
stores

61, 093
64,754
68,985
72,434
74,802
79,077
83,384

134,468
147,377
167,159
180,825
185,224
206,981
221,242

61,469
68,984
79,257
88,608
90,477
106,271
114,994

72,999
78,393
87,902
92,217
94,747
100,710
106,248

1.67
1.56
1.53
1.55
1.55
'1.51
'1.50

1.49
1.44
1.49
1.53
1.56
1.56
1.57

Nondurable goods
stores

Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
c

c

1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988

348,747
368,813
r
407,869
r
418,151
r
423,700
' 449,536
' 485,756

574,491
'590,358
'644,306
'655,066
'653,853
'700,761
'753,718

96,290
' 100,244
'113,195
'114,315
'115,677
'123,581
'132,361

128,196
'130,334
'142,380
' 146,745
'152,447
'162,648
'178,313

89,107
97,328
106,805
113,821
119,663
126,785
135,763

1988- Feb '
Mar '.

466,052
474,239
474,986
r
478,697
' 486,208
'486,193
'492,491
'492,478
r
498,846
'501,400
'506,186

707,886
710,582
'714,465
'718,995
'724,966
'729,903
'737,562
'744,054
'743,544
'746,756
'753,718

127,274
128,655
'128,701
'128,790
'132,317
'133,833
'134,726
'135,332
'138,087
'137,239
'136,170

166,857
168,071
'169,965
'170,346
'172,179
'174,581
'176,368
'176,972
'177,408
'177,060
'178,313

131,846
133,806
133,249
134,130
135,010
135,662
136,050
135,751
137,842
139,529
139,189

51,453
52,260
52,018
52,002
52,320
52,284
51,931
51,427
52,725
53,930
54,154

80,393
81,546
81,231
82,128
82,690
83,378
84,119
84,324
85,117
85,599
85,035

205,613
205,816
206,564
208,575
210,824
211,534
215,396
219,297
216,724
218,093
221,242

103,983
103,254
103,895
105,860
107,064
107,443
110,146
114,303
111,689
112,904
114,994

101,630
102,562
102,669
102,715
103,760
104,091
105,250
104,994
105,035
105,189
106,248

1.52
1.50
1.50
'1.50
1.49
'1.50
'1.50
'1.51
'1.49
'1.49
'1.49

1.56
1.54
1.55
1.56
1.56
1.56
1.58
1.62
1.57
1.56
1.59

511,881
508,034

759,803
763,592

140,356
140,423

179,761 140,040
180,265 '139,258
139,419

53,815
'52,885
52,794

86,225
'86,373
86,625

222,584
224,271

115,704
116,001

106,880
108,270

1.48
1.50

1.59
1.61

r

r

May
July
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

1989- Jan '
Feb"
Mar"
1
2

3

See page 21 for manufacturing.
Monthly average for year and total for montli

End of period.
4

Annual data are averages of monthly ratios.

20



28,013
32,574
37,819
41,387
44,861
47,707
52,379

NOTE.—Wholesale series revised (therefore total manufacturing and trade also revised) beginning
1983.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
In March, manufacturers' inventories and orders rose, while shipments fell.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

280
240

440 — INVENT
400
360

SHIPMENTS

200

\

r~"~^~1

-—|

120

DIIR ABLE GOOD

L.-U— 1--"—

['— r

TOTAL

200

\

--

•.mi

•

_. .—.—
1

DL RABLE GOO DS

160

6

NCJNDURABLE DOOD !

80

•

\

280

TOTAL

160

,

^~^—————

120
— t —\

60

miilum Illllllllll

Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll

BILLIONS OF DOLLARSi*'(RATIO SCALE)
280
240

••^

~-"r| TOTAL
^

160
120
.-

--_
• —-

Rft
60

NEW ^PDEPS

200

miilmii iimlmi! Minium

r-^

IIIIlllllII

niiiliini

RATIO *
2.20
INVENTORY-SHIPMENTS RATIO

1
DURABLE GOODS
, ...
\
*.-*.-•
\^.^-.... mS*
^—
-t— ^

2.00
1.80

-

-~_ r

1.60

'"\

80

Nor•JDURABLE G OODS

NONDURABLE C7OODS

1.40

60

IIIIlllllII Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll

1986

1985

1987

1988

HllllUU!

1.20

innliiiii

1985

1989

1986

innliiiii

>U"I'MH
1987

'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1988

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Manufacturers' shipments l

Manufacturers' inventories 2

Manufacturers' new orders *
Durable goods

Period
Total

Durable
goods

1989

Nondurable goods

Durable
goods

Total

Nondurable goods

Total
Total

Capital
goods
industries,
nondefense

Nondurable goods

Manufacturers'
unfilled
orders 2

Manufacturers'
inventory —
shipments
ratio 3

Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted

1982
1983
1984.
1985
1986
1987
1988
1988: Mar
Apr
June
July
.i
Aue
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

1989: Jan
Feb r
Mar"
1
2

163,350
171,242
187,869
190,016
188,360
199,170
217,632
211,778
213,036
215,777
218,881
216,698
221,715
221,395
222,917
224,632
230,827

79,352
84,956
96,623
99,019
99,989
105,291
115,684
112,744
112,521
114,751
116,522
113,122
117,866
118,030
118,439
119,874
124,175

231,485
228,353
228,069

123,578
120 924
120,366

200,825
200,406
218,771
214,066
208,313
216,598
233,666

111,002
112,241
115,996
113,430
107,869
114,534
120,497

162,273
174,122
189,791
190,918
188,663
201,966
221,627

99,034
100,515
101,026
102,359
103,576
103,849
103,365
104,478
104,758
106,652

311,827
312,647
334,767
327,496
316,182
331,132
354,163
336,695
337,936
340,074
341,963
343,788
345,798
347,785
349,412
351,603
354,163

220,523
221,405
222,948
224,000
225,467
226,600
228,214
229,735
231,766
233,666

116,172
116,531
117,126
117,963
118,321
119,198
119,571
119,677
119,837
120,497

107,907
107,429
107,703

357,458
359,056
360,914

236,810
238,165
239,142

120,648
120,891
121,772

211,799
217,029
216,398
228,090
219,877
227,009
222,669
227,095
228,153
238,886
236,075
231,306
232,915

83,998
86,286
91,246
90,996
88,371
93,879
101,948

Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales.
End of period.




3

78,338
87,600
98,581
99,843
100,166
107,770
119,634
113,063
116,836
115,369
125,442
116,112
122,806
119,321
122,791
123,035
132,149

21,661
22,098
26,243
27,067
26,551
29,707
35,028

83,935
86,522
91,209
91,075
88,497
94,197
101,993

31,924
33,746
31,522
35,458
36,213
38,808
34,858
34,623
35,825
39,432

98,736
100,193
101,029
102,648
103,765
104,203
103,348
104,304
105,118
106,737

314,270
349,419
372,586
383,181
387,065
421,243
468,860
429,534
433,527
434,148
443,357
446,536
451,830
453,103
457,281
460,802
468,860

128,479
124,107
125,209

40,352
37,189
38,089

107,596
107,199
107,706

473,450
476,403
481,249

1.95
1.80
1.74
1.74
1.70
1.62
1.58
.59
.59
.58
.56
.59
.56
.57
1.57
1.57
1.53
1.54
1.57
1.58

Annual data are averages of monthly ratios.

Source; Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

21

PRICES
PRODUCER PRICES
In March, the producer price index for all finished goods rose 0.4 percent. Prices of finished consumer foods rose
0.8 percent while prices of other finished consumer goods rose 0.5 percent. Capital equipment prices rose 0.2
percent.
INDEX, 1982 = 100 (RATIO SCALE)

INDEX, 1982= 100 (RATIO SCALE)

120

120

110

100

80

1981

1982
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[1982—100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Intermediate materials

Finished goods
Period

Total
finished
goods

Consumer
foods

Finished goods excluding consumer foods

Total
finished

Consumer goods

con-

Total
Total

1980
1981
1982
1983

1984
1985
1986
1987
1988

p

1988- Mar
Apr
May
July
All?
Sept
Oct
Novr
Dec

1989- Jan
Feb.
1




Nondurable

Total

Foods
and
feeds l

Other

Total

Foodstuffs
and
feedstuffs

Other

sumer
goods

88.0
96.1
100.0
101.6
103.7
104.7
103.2
105.4
108.0

92.4
97.8
100.0
101.0
105.4
104.6
107.3
109.5
112.6

86.7
95.6
100.0
101.8
103.2
104.6
101.9
104.0
106.5

87.1
96.1
100.0
101.2
102.2
103.3
98.5
100.7
103.1

91.0
96.4
100.0
102.8
104.5
106.5
108.9
111.5
113.7

85.1
95.8
100.0
100.5
101.1
101.7
93.3
94.9
97.3

85.8
94.6
100.0
102.8
105.2
107.5
109.7
111.7
114.3

88.6
96.6
100.0
101.3
103.3
103.8
101.4
103.6
106.2

90.3
98.6
100.0
100.6
103.1
102.7
99.1
101.5
107.1

105.5
104.6
100.0
103.6
105.7
97.3
96.2
99.2
109.5

89.4
98.2
100.0
100.5
103.0
103.0
99.3
101.7
107.0

95.3
103.0
100.0
101.3
103.5
95.8
87.7
93.7
95.9

304.6
103.9
100.0
101.8
104.7
94.8
93.2
96.2
106.0

84.6
101.8
100.0
100.7
102.2
96.9
81.6
87.9
85.5

106.8
107.1
107.4
107.6
108.2
108.5
109.1
109.2
109.5
109.9

110.6
110.6
111.2
112.1
112.9
113.6
114.6
114.7
115.1
115.2

105.5
105.9
106.1
106.1
106.6
106.9
107.3
107.4
107.7
108.2

102.2
102.7
102.9
102.7
103.3
103.5
103.7
103.8
104.1
104.7

112.9
112.7
113.2
113.4
113.9
114.5
115.1
115.0
115.0
115.3

96.4
97.1
97.2
96.8
97.6
97.6
97.6
97.8
98.3
99.0

113.2
113.4
113.7
114.0
114.3
114.7
115.7
115.6
115.8
116.1

105.0
105.3
105.6
105.8
106.5
106.8
107.3
107.4
107.8
108.2

105.0
105.7
106.3
107.1
107.9
108.2
108.6
108.6
109.0
109.6

103.3
104.5
104.2
110.7
115.9
114.9
115.3
115.1
113.2
112.1

105.1
105.8
106.4
107.0
107.4
107.8
108.2
108.3
108.8
109.4

94.6
95.6
96.0
96.9
96.6
97.2
97.1
96.6
94.8
97.6

101.1
101.4
102.0
106.1
108.3
110.9
113.1
113.4
108.8
110.8

86.3
87.8
88.0
86.9
85.2
84.4
83.1
82.0
82.1
85.2

111.0
112.1
112.6

116.5
117.9
118.9

109.2
110.1
110.6

106.0
107.1
107.6

116.3
116.6
117.2

100.3
101.7
102.2

116.8
117.3
117.5

109.4
110.7
111.3

110.6
111.2
112.0

114.8
114.6
116.7

110.4
111.1
111.8

101.4
101.3
103.6

113.2
111.7
115.1

89.6
90.3
91.8

Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds.

22

Durable

Capital
equipment

Crude materials

CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
In March, the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 0.5 percent, seasonally adjusted (0.6

percent not

seasonally adjusted). The index was 5.0 percent above its year-earlier level.
INDEX, 1082-84 =100 (RATIO SCALE)

INDEX, 1982-84=100 (RATIO SCALE)
130

130

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

120

120

. CONSUMER PRICES—ALL ITEMS .

110

110

100

100

90

90

80

80

70

70

Illlll

60
1981

1983

1982

1984

1985

60

1988

1987

1986

1989

SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[1982-84—100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Transportation

Housing

All items *

Fuel
and
other
utilities

Apparel and
upkeep

New
cars

Motor
fuel

Enerz

Total '

care

gy

All
items
less
food,
shelter,
and
energy

7.6
75.4
86.4
94.9
100.2
104.8
106.5
104.1
103.0
104.4

6.4
90.9
95.3
97.8
100.2
102.1
105.0
105.9
110.6
115.4

17.2
83.1
93.2
97.0
99.3
103.7
106.4
102.3
105.4
108.7

4.3
88.4
93.7
97.4
99.9
102.8
106.1
110.6
114.6
116.9

3.1
97.4
108.5
102.8
99.4
97.9
98.7
77.1
80.2
80.9

6.0
74.9
82.9
92.5
100.6
106.8
113.5
122.0
130.1
138.6

7.3
86.0
97.7
99.2
99.9
100.9
101.6
88.2
88.6
89.3

48.7
80.6
88.3
95.1
100.0
105.0
109.0
112.7
117.0
121.9

Shelter
Period

Rel. imp.3....

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1988:
Mar

July

Get
Nov
Dec .
1989:
Feb
Mar

Not
seasonally
adjusted
(NSA)

Season-

Rent-

Food

ally
adjust-

ers'

Total '
Total

ed

100.0
824
90.9
965

99.6
103.9
107.6
1096
113.6
118 3

costs

(Dec.
1982 =
100)

Homeowners'
costs
(Dec.
1982 =
100)

Maintenance
and
repairs
(NSA)

16.2
86.8
93.6
97.4
99.4
103.2
105.6
109.0
113.5
118.2

42.3
81.1
90.4
96.9
99.5
103.6
107.7
110.9
114.2
118.5

27.8
81.0
90.5
96.9
99.1
104.0
109.8
115.8
121.3
127.1

103.0
108.6
115.4
121.9
128.1
133.6

102.5
107.3
113.1
119.4
124.8
131.1

0.2
82.4
90.7
96.4
99.9
103.7
106.5
107.9
111.8
114.7

7.9

19.7

'

Medi-

cal

116.5
117.1
117.5
118.0
118.5
119.0
119.8
120.2
120.3
120.5

116.7
117.2
117.7
118.1
118.6
119.0
119.5
120.0
120.3
120.7

116.0
116.6
117.1
117.8
118.9
119.5
120.3
120.6
120.8
121.2

117.2
117.6
117.9
118.2
118.5
118.9
119.3
119.6
120.1
120.6

125.5
125.8
126.2
126.7
127.0
127.6
128.1
128.3
128.9
129.4

132.6
132.3
132.6
133.0
133.4
133.8
133.8
134.1
134.2
134.9

129.3
129.8
130.3
130.8
131.2
131.9
132.5
132.7
133.5
133.9

113.3
115.3
114.3
114.7
114.5
115.0
115.3
115.0
115.4
115.8

103.6
104.0
104.0
103.9
104.0
104.0
104.4
105.1
105.5
106.3

114.1
115.5
116.3
115.9
115.7
113.9
116.0
117.4
117.4
117.7

107.2
107.5
108.2
108.4
108.7
109.6
109.7
110.1
110.4
110.4

116.1
116.2
116.5
116.6
116.7
117.0
117.7
117.8
117.9
118.1

79.5
80.1
81.4
80.9
81.3
82.8
82.0
81.3
81.1
79.7

136.1
136.8
137.6
138.4
139.4
140.0
140.7
141.6
142.2
142.9

87.9
88.4
88.9
88.7
88.9
89.5
89.3
89.2
89.5
89.2

120.4
121.0
121.5
121.8
122.2
122.4
123.0
123.8
124.2
124.6

121.1
121.6
122.3

121.4
121.9
122.5

122.1
122.6
123.6

120.9
121.3
121.7

129.7
130.3
131.1

135.2
136.4
138.2

134.2
134.7
135.1

116.1
117.1
117.1

106.9
106.7
106.9

117.7
117.5
119.1

111.2
111.9
112.6

118.9
119.3
119.7

80.5
81.8
83.6

144.0
145.2
145.9

89.9
90.4
91.4

125.4
125.8
126.3

1
Includes items not shown separately.
2
Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc.
also included through 1982.
3
Relative importance, December 1988.




Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,

23

CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]

Period

Change from preceding period

Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate

Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate

Consumer goods

Consumer goods

Consumer goods

Total
finished
goods

Total
finished
goods

Capital
equipment

Excluding foods

Foods

Excluding
foods

Foods

Capital
equipment

Total
finished
goods

Excluding
foods

Foods

Capital
equipment

Change
from
year
earlier,
total
finished
goods
NSA

Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA

11.8
7.1
3.6
.6
1.7
1.8
-2.3
2.2
4.0

1980
1981

1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988"

11.4
9.2
3.9
2.0
1.8
2.7
2.1
1.3
3.5

14.1
8.6
4.2
9
.8
2.1
-6.6
4.1
3.1

7.5
1.5
2.0
2.3
3.5
.6
2.8
-.2
5.7

13.4
9.2
4.1
1.6
2.1
1.0
— 1.4
2.1
2.5

Change, month to month

1988- Mar

0.4
.3
.3
.2
.6
.3
.6
.1
.3
.4
1.0
1.0
.4

May
,*
July
3

.

Sept
Oct

Dec '
1989- Jan r
Feb
Mar

0.5
0
.5
.8
.7
.6
.9
.1
.3
.1

0.3
.5
.2
2
.6
.2
.2
.1
.3
.6
1.2
1.0
.5

1.1
1.2
.8

0.1
.2
.3
.3
.3
.3
.9
-.1
.2
.3
.6
.4
.2

6.8
.7
4.4
5.5
8.6
8.9
9.2
6.5
5.4
2.1
6.4
10.1
13.5

4.2
2.7
3.8
3.0
4.2
4.2
5.7
3.7
3.7
3.0
6.8
9.8
10.2

2.8
4.0
4.0
2.0
2.4
2.4
4.0
2.0
2.3
3.9

8.8
12.0
11.5

3.6
2.1
2.1
2.9
3.2
3.6
6.1
4.6
3.9
1.4
4.2
5.3
4.9

1.3
1.5
2.2
6.2
4.6
6.7
7.4
7.6
7.1
5.6
6.5
7.7
7.6

1.1
2.1
2.7
3.6
3.4
4.0
4.4
4.0
3.9
4.3
5.2
6.7
6.5

0.8
2.2
3.0
2.4
3.2
3.2
3.0
2.2
2.3
3.9
5.3
7.1
7.7

1.4
2.5
2.9
3.2
2.7
2.8
4.5
3.9
3.7
3.7
4.4
4.6
3.1

1.9
1.8
2.0
2.1
2.5
2.6
2.7
3.0
3.3
4.0
4.4
5.3
5.6

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]
Transportation

Housing
Shelter
Period

All
items *

Food
Total i
Total

1

Homeowners'
costs

Renters'
costs

Fuel
and
other
utilities

Apparel
and
upkeep

New
cars

Total '

Motor
fuel

Medical
care

Energy2

All
items
less
food,
shelter,
and
energy

Addendum: All items, percent change
(annual rate)
From
previous
quarter 3

From
3
months
earlier

From
6
months
earlier

From
year
earlier
NSA

Change, December to December, NSA
12.5

1980
1981

8.9
3.8
3.8
3.9
3.8
1.1
4.4
4.4

1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988

10.2
4.3
3.1
2.7
3.8
2.6
3.8
3.5
5.2

13.7
10.2
3.6
3.5
4.3
4.3
1.7
3.7
4.0

15.0
99

2.4
4.7
5.2
6.0
4.6
4.8
4.5

5.1
5.9
6.3
5.0
3.9
3.9

4.5
5.1
5.9
4.6
5.3
4.7

13.8
14.4
9.7
1.8
4.2
1.8
-5.6
1.6
2.9

6.8
3.5
1.6
2.9
2.0
2.8
.9
4.8
4.7

14.6
10.9
1.8
3.9
3.1
2.6
-5.9
6.1
3.0

7.4
18.8
6.8
9.4
1.5 -6.5
.
-t n
3.4
2.5 -2.4
3.4
3.1
5.9 -30.7
1.8 18.7
2.1
2.1

9.9
12.5
11.0
6.4
6.1
6.8
7.7
5.8
6.9

0.2 -0.4
.1
.8
.3
1.6
.1
-.6
.1
.5
.3
1.8
.6 -1.0
.1 -.9
2
.1
.2 -1.7

18.0
11.9
1.3

9.8
9.4
6.1
5.0
4.3
3.7
3.3
3.8
4.7

0.5
.5
.6
.6
.7
.4
.5
.6
.4
.5

-0.2
.6
.6
-.2
.2
.7
-.2
.3
-.3

0.5
.5
.4
.2
.3
.2
.5
.7
.3
.3

.8
.8
.5

.8
.6
1.1

.6
.3
.4

5
.2
1.8
-19.7
8.2
.5

13.5
10.3
6.2
3.2
4.3
3.6
1.9
3.6
4.1

Change, month to month

1988:

1989:

Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

0.3
.4
.4
.3
.4
.3
.4
.4
.3
.3

0.4
.5
.4
.6
.9
.5
.7
.2
.2
.3

0.3
.3
.3
.3
.3
.3
.3
.3
.4
.4

0.4
.2
.3
.4
.2
.5
.4
.2
.5
.4

0.9
-.2
.2
.3
.3
.3
0
.2
.1
.5

0.2
.4
.4
.4
.3
.5
.5
.2
.6
.3

0
.4
0
-.1
.1
0
.4
.7
.4
.8

1.6
1.2
.7
-.3
16
1.8
1.2
0
.3

0.1
.3
.7
.2
.3
.8
.1
.4
.3
0

Jan
Feb
Mar

.6
.4
.5

.7
.4
.8

.2
.3
.3

.2
.5
.6

.2
.9
1.3

.2
.4
.3

.6
-.2
.2

0
-.2
1.4

.7
.6
.6

1

o

Includes items not shown separately.
Household fuels—gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc.-—and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc.,
also included tlirough 1982.
2

24



.7
.3
.3
3

1.0
1.6
2.2

-1

3.9

4.4

3.9
3.8
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.5
4.8
4.8
4.4
4.1

3.7
3.9
4.0
4.4
4.4
4.7
4.9
4.8
4.5
4.5

3.9
3.9
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.0
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.4

5.4

4.7
5.4
6.1

4.8
4.9
5.1

4.7
4.8
5.0

4.5
4.5

Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received by farmers in April fell 2.0 percent from their March level. Prices paid by farmers in April were 1.1
percent above their January level. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.)
INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE)

INDEX, 1977 = 100 (RATIO SCALE)
180

180

160

160
PRICES PAID

140

140

120

120
PRICES RECEIVED

100

100

80

80

60
RATIC3-W
140
120
100

mnlimi

imilmn

II ( 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ( 1 1 1 1 1 ( ( I I I I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I I 1 1 1 H 11111111 60
RA

140
120

,_

piTin

100

80

^———^_——^——1f

"~"~~~~l

60

II 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 1 1 { 1 1 1 M U M M I M
1981
1983
1982

1 1 i 1!' M 11 1

- -

-*

80

'-' '-

"
^=1
1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 ] 11 f 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 11 1 11

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

60

1989

U RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

[1977 = 100; not seasonally adjusted]
Prices paid by farmers

Prices received by farmers
Period

1981

1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1988- Apr
May
July
Auff
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1989' Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
1

All farm
products

Livestock and
products

Crops

134
121
128
138
120
107
106
125
112
117
129
136
136
135
133
136
136

139
133
135
142
128
123
127
138
130
134
138
142
144
144
143
144
145
149
148
149
146

140
138
!36
138

r

Includes items not shown separately.
Percentage ratio of index of prices received by fanners to index of prices paid, interest, taxes,
and wage rates. See also footnote 3.
3
Beginning March 1986, prices paid by fanners are available only for first month in quarter, and
for each month the received/paid ratio is based on latest data available.
2




143
145
141
146
136
138
146
150
148
151
147
147
152
153
152
151
154
158
158
!61
154

r

All commodities,
services,
interest, taxes,
and wage rates 1

Production
items, interest,
taxes, and wage
rates

150
159
161
164
162
159
161
170
168
(3)
(3)
172
(3)
(3)
173
(3)
(3)
175
(3)
(3)
177

151
159
159
161
156
150
151
160
158
(3)
(3)
162
(3)
(3)
163
(3)
(3)
r
!66
(3)
(3)
167

Production
items

148
153
152
155
151
147
147
157
155
(3)
(3)
159
(3)
(3)
162
(3)
(3)
163
(3)
<3)
165

Ratio 2

92

84
84
87
79
77
79
81
77
80
82
83
84
84
83
83
84
85
85
85
82

NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by law. The indexes
have been converted to a 1977 = 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.

25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES
Ml fell in March, while growth in the broader aggregates accelerated.
BILLIONS Of DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
4,000
3,600

4,000
3,600

3,200

3,200

2,800

2,800

2,400

2,400

M2
2,000

2,000

1,600

1,600

1,200

1,200

1800

600

1985

1982

1988

1989

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

• AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

[Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]

Period

19801981:
1982:
19831984:
1985:
1986:
1987:
1988:

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec '.

1988:

Mar
May

July

Aue

Sept
Oct
Dec

1989: Jan r
Feb r
Mar"

Debt

M2

MS

Sum of currency,
demand deposits,
travelers' checks,
and other
checkable
deposits (OCDs)

Ml plus overnight
RPs and
Eurodollars,
MMMF balances
(general purpose
and broker/dealer),
MMDAs, and
savings and small
time deposits

M2 plus large
time deposits,
term RPs, term
Eurodollars, and
institution-only
MMMF balances

412.2
439.1
476.4
522.1
551.9
620.5
725.9
752.3
790.3

1,633.3
1,795.9
1,954.5
2,186.0
2,367.2
2,567.4
2,811.2
2,909.9
3,069.3

1,991.1
1,236.9
2,443.8
2,694.3
2,982.3
3,201.7
3,494.9
3,677.6
3,919.0

2,327.8
2,599.4
2,853.5
3,155.5
3,523.4
3,830.6
4,137.1
4,340.5
4,685.2

3,868.2
4,244.3
4,627.9
5,161.1
5,910.1
6,719.9
7,576.8
8,283.9
8,994.5

6.8
6.5
8.5
9.6
5.7
12.4
17.0
3.6
5.1

8.9
10.0
8.8
11.8
8.3
8.5
9.5
3.5
5.5

10.2
12.3
9.2
10.3
10.7
7.4
9.2
5.2
6.6

9.7
9.7
9.0
11.5
14.5
13.7
12.8
9.3
8.6

763.8
771.2
771.1
776.5
782.5
782.4
783.7
785.4
786.6
' 790.3

2,969.3
2,990.3
2,999.8
3,013.1
3,023.9
3,029.7
3,035.0
3,042.2
'3,059.3
' 3,069.3

3,755.9
3,779.6
3,794.6
3,815.6
3,838.2
3,852.6
3,864.0
3,881.0
r
3,901.7
' 3,919.0

4,436.3
4,475.3
4,503.8
4,521.0
4,565.3
r
4,586.9
r
4,597.8
r
4,619.9
r
4,647.5
'4,685.2

8,449.3
8,509.7
8,567.1
8,624.7
r
8,682.8
'8,747.5
r
8,811.5
'8,868.6
T
8, 935.2
r
8,994.5

4.3
3.7
4.4
6.5
6.5
6.0
5.3
3.7
4.1
3.6

5.9
6.1
6.7
7.2
6.5
5.4
4.5
3.5
4.0
3.8

7.0
6.9
6.9
7.6
7.5
6.6
5.8
5.4
5.7
5.5

9.2
8.9
8.4
8.4
8.7
'8.9
'8.8
'8.6
'8.8
'8.8

786.3
787.4
786.2

3,065.8
3,069.7
3,079.4

3,924.2
3,933.7
3,955.7

4,688.7
4,701.9

9,054.8
9,135.5

1.0
1.3
.6

2.8
2.7
2.9

4.5
4.3
4.8

8.8
9.1

L

M3 plus
other liquid
assets

Debt of
domestic
nonfinancial
sectors
(monthly
average) '

er at an annual rate.
NOTE.—See p. 27 for components.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reservi

26




Percent change from year or 6
months earlier 2

Ml

Ml

M2

M3

Debt

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]

Period

Currency

Demand
deposits

Other
checkable
deposits
(OCDs)

Overnight
repurchase
agreements
(BPs),
net,
plus
overnight
Eurodollars
NSA

Money market
mutual fund
balances
General
purpose
and
broker/
dealer
NSA

Institution
only

Money
market
deposit
accounts
(MMDAs)

NSA

Savings
deposits

Small
denomination
time
deposits '

Large
denomination
time
deposits 1

NSA

Term
repurchase
agreements
(BPs)

Term
Eurodollars
(net)

NSA

NSA

Savings
bonds

Shortterm
Treasury
securities

Bankers'
acceptances

Commercial
paper

1980- Dec
1981- Dec
1982- Dec
1983' Dec
1984- Dec
1985- Dec
1986: Dec
1987- Dec
1988: Dec

115.2 261.5
122.5 231.5
132.6 234.2
146.3 238.7
156.1 244.2
167.8 267.3
180.5 303.2
196.4 288.3
211.8 288.6

31.3
80.8
105.3
132.2
146.4
179.5
235.8
260.4
282.3

28.3
35.9
38.8
53.8
56.3
70.2
78.3
78.3
78.2

61.6
150.6
185.2
138.2
167.5
176.5
208.0
221.1
' 239.4

15.2
38.0
51.1
43.2
62.7
64.5
84.4
89.6
87.6

0.0
.0
43.2
379.2
416.9
513.5
572.5
526.3
502.7

400.2
728.6
344.0
823.2
356.9
851.0
305.6
784.0
285.4
886.3
301.6
882.6
371.0
853.9
416.4
914.1
431.3 1,025.3

260.1
302.5
326.8
327.4
417.2
436.6
439.0
487.4
537.7

34.0
36.0
34.5
51.8
61.9
65.6
84.0
109.1
125.3

50.3
67.5
81.7
91.5
82.9
76.1
84.9
90.8
108.5

72.3 133.5
67.8
149.4
68.0 183.6
71.1 211.9
74.2
260.7
79.4
300.1
91.7 282.3
100.4
257.5
109.1 ' 280.7

32.1
40.0
44.5
45.0
45.4
42.0
37.2
44.7
40.6

98.8
105.3
113.6
133.2
160.7
207.4
231.0
260.3
335.8

1988- Mar

200.7
202.4
203.4
204.7
206.4
207.0
208.6
209.7
210.5
211.8

288.4
290.3
288.1
289.8
290.4
289.9
288.8
288.9
287.7
288.6

267.5
271.2
272.2
274.7
278.5
278.3
279.0
279.4
281.0
282.3

74.5
75.6
80.4
80.8
77.6
79.9
77.3
76.0
75.5
78.2

234.8
235.8
231.8
228.9
229.6
230.8
231.0
231.3
237.4
r
239.4

97.4
91.9
90.0
86.3
84.8
84.0
83.7
84.6
87.4
87.6

525.5
524.2
520.5
523.2
522.0
517.7
511.4
507.5
506.7
502.7

421.5
952.8
423.3
963.4
425.2
971.0
427.6
975.7
429.7
981.0
430.9
988.3
430.5
998.7
429.2 1,009.7
431.8 1,017.8
431.3 1,025.3

496.3
499.2
502.4
507.8
514.0
519.4
526.7
532.0
534.4
537.7

112.0
114.7
121.0
124.3
125.6
123.8
122.4
125.2
128.9
125.3

90.0
89.1
91.8
93.1
96.2
104.3
106.2
103.5
104.8
108.5

103.4 255.6
104.4 262.3
105.3 265.1
106.0 258.3
106.8 ' 269.7
107.4 r274.5
107.9 ' 275.4
108.4 277.0
108.7 r273.1
109.1 ' 280.7

41.1
41.4
41.1
40.7
40.7
41.2
41.7
41.3
40.5
40.6

280.3
287.6
297.8
300.4
309.8
311.3
308,8
312.3
323.7
335.8

213.4 284.0
214.3 284.8
215.6 284.2

281.3
280.9
279.1

81.7
79.1
77.5

241.6
247.4
256.5

89.3
89.6
87.6

495.1
485.2
480.1

427.8 1,036.0
424.7 1,048.5
420.9 1,061.1

544.3
551.5
558.6

126.8
129.9
132.5

103.3
102.6
107.7

109.7
110.6

40.2
39.0

334.9
344.2

May

July
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1989: Jan r
Feb r
Mar p

1
Small denomination and large denomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than
$100,000 and more than $100,000, respectively.
NOTE.—Travelers checks of nonbank issuers are a component of money stock but are not shown

279.7
274.3

here.
Source: Board of Govemors of the Federal

Reserve System.

AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE
[Averages of daily figures; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements

Borrowings of depository
institutions from the Federal
Reserve (NSA)

Reserves of depository institutions
Period
Total

19801981:
19821983:
19841985:
198619871988-

Dec
Dec
Dec ..
Dec
Dec .
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec

1988: Mar
May
July

Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1989: Jan
Feb
Mar"
NOTE.—Aggregate rest
vet available.




Nonborrowed

Nonborrowed plus
extended
credit

Required

Monetary
base

Total

Seasonal

Extended
credit

60,979

59,264

60,508

59,939

275,811

1,690
636
634
774
3,186
1,318
827
777
1,716

59,760
60,374
60,365
60,637
61,238
61,090
60,995
60,956
61,055
60,979

58,009
57,380
57,787
57,555
57,798
57,849
58,156
58,657
58,194
59,264

59,487
60,004
59,894
60,108
60,336
60,502
60,215
60,438
60,516
60,508

58,832
59,515
59,325
59,750
60,231
60,137
60,024
59,894
59,936
59,939

263,301
265,606
266,816
268,267
270,503
271,144
272,467
273,772
274,658
275,811

1,752
2,993
2,578
3,083
3,440
3,241
2,839
2,299
2,861
1,716

119
146
246
311
376
423
421
332
186
130

1,478
2,624
2,107
2,554
2,538
2,653
2,059
1,781
2,322
1,244

58,883
59,001
58,297

59,929
60,050
59,631

59,401
59,333
59,150

276,739
277,757
278,716

1,662
1,487
1,813

76
97
139

1,046
1,050
1,334

60,545
60,487
60,109
5 and monetary base revised beginning 1959. Data prior to 1988 not

r

r

116
54
33
96
113
56
38
93
130

3
148
186
2
2,604
499
303
483
1,244

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

27

BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES
Total commercial bank loans and leases rose 0.4 percent in March. Commercial and industrial loans fell 0.3
percent.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
2,800

2,800
ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS

2,400

2,400

2,000

2,000

1,600

1,600

1,200

1,200
LOANS AND LEASES

800

800

400

400
U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES

200

200

T

160

160

OTHER SECURITIES •

imilniii

120
1981

1984

1983

1982

1988

1987

1986

1985

- SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

120

1989

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted l]

All commercial banks
Loans and leases
Period

Total
securities 2

1981:
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
1986:
1987:
1988:
1988:

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
NOT
Dec
1989: Jan
Feb
Mar "....

1,307.7
1,401.5
1,553.6
1,723.6
1,910.1
2,092.8
2,237.4
2,408.0
2,284.3
2,303.5
2,325.5
2,343.5
2,358.5
2,371.4
2,373.5
2,392.6
2,400.6
2,408.0
2,412.8
2,441.8
2,454.9

1

U.S.
Government
securities

179.3
201.7
259.2
260.2
270.7
309.5
335.5
362.4
341.3
343.9
346.4
348.8
349.3
350.9
353.2
356.0
358.5
362.4
361.8
363.4
370.3

Other
securities

160.9
165.7
170.6
142.6
181.3
196.4
195.2
192.9
196.2
196.5
196.4
196.7
196.9
196.7
195.4
196.6
195.3
192.9
188.0
188.5
187.7

Total

2

967.5
1,034.1
1,123.9
1,320.9
1,458.1
1,586.8
1,706.8
1,852.7
1,746.8
1,763.1
1,782.7
1,797.9
1,812.3
1,823.9
1,825.0
1,839.9
1,846.8
1,852.7
1,863.0
1,889.9
1,896.8

Commercial
and
industrial

Real
estate

Individual

Security

Nonbank
financial
institutions

Agricultural

political
subdivisions

355.4
392.6
414.1
472.9
499.7
536.1
562.6
599.7
570.4
577.4
584.5
589.3
594.9
595.3
594.3
597.8
598.9
599.7
604.5
r
616.5
614.7

284.1
299.8
330.8
376.3
425.5
493.5
588.2
664.8
606.2
613.1
620.5
626.9
633.3
640.3
646.9
654.7
659.3
664.8
671.2
678.3
685.2

182.5
188.2
212.9
253.8
294.0
314.9
328.4
355.1
336.9
339.9
341.9
343.4
344.6
346.5
348.9
350.8
352.3
355.1
357.0
357.9
359.9

21.5
25.4
28.1
34.3
42.7
40.1
34.4
37.9
40.2
39.5
39.7
39.5
38.9
39.7
36.7
38.4
37.9
37.9
37.0
44.0
42.9

29.9
31.3
30.5
31.4
32.5
35.0
31.9
29.9
31.0
30.5
30.6
30.6
31.0
31.0
30.5
30.2
30.0
29.9
r
30.1
r
30.5
29.6

33.1
36.2
39.2
40.1
36.1
31.6
29.4
30.7
29.4
29.4
29.5
29.6
29.6
29.6
29.6
29.8
30.3
30.7
30.7
30.7
30.7

0.0
.0
3.3
46.0
56.7
58.4
52.5
47.1
50.3
49.7
49.4
49.2
48.8
48.2
48.0
48.7
47.9
47.1
44.7
44.9
45.0

Data are prorated averages of Wednesday figures for domestically chartered banks and averages
of month-end data for foreign-related institutions. Data beginning January 1984 are not strictly
comparable with data for earlier periods, largely because beginning January 1984 certain obligations
of States and political subdivisions are included in loans rather than in other securities.

28



2

State
Foreign
banks

18.1
14.8
13.4
11.1
9.7
9.6
7.5
7.5
7.9
8.3
8.0
8.1
8.2
8.2
7.5
7.8
8.2
7.5
7.6
8.2
7.9

Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Foreign
official
institutions
7.2
5.9
9.4
7.9
6.0
5.9
5.3
5.6
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.0
5.0
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.4
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.5

Lease
financing
receivables

Other

12.7
13.3
13.7
16.0
18.9
22.3
24.4
28.1
25.6
25.9
26.2
26.8
27.5
27.6
27.8
27.9
28.0
28.1
28.3
28.4
28.6

23.1
26.6
31.8
31.2
36.2
39.4
42.1
46.4
44.0
44.4
47.2
49.6
50.4
52.4
49.4
48.7
48.7
46.4
r
46.2
r
44.8
46.7

SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL
CORPORATE BUSINESS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Sources

Uses

External
Period

Total

Internal

Capital

Credit market funds

1

Total
Total

Securities
and
mortgages

Loans and
short-term
paper

Other 2

Total

tares

3

Increase in
financial
assets

Discrepancy
(sources less
uses)

326.0
324.8
375.8
298.5
420.3
492.6
459.2
519.8
483.2
468.0

197.6
200.1
239.5
242.3
285.7
336.3
352.3
357.5
352.8
364.5

128.4
124.7
136.4
56.2
134.6
156.3
106.9
162.3
130.4
103.5

60.1
70.7
90.7
49.8
77.9
95.8
50.9
121.3
68.9
62.4

9.0
34.5
29.4
10.3
52.6
-5.1
5.0
59.0
38.6
199

51.1
36.2
61.2
39.5
25.3
100.9
46.0
62.3
30.3
82.3

68.2
54.0
45.7
6.4
56.8
60.5
55.9
41.0
61.6
41.1

368.1
342.1
383.6
303.5
385.8
502.7
435.3
456.7
437.3
436.7

238.3
243.7
286.5
256.5
270.7
370.6
342.3
333.9
361.7
395.8

129.8
98.4
97.0
47.0
115.1
132.1
93.0
122.8
75.6
40.9

-42.1
-17.3
-7.7
-4.9
34.5
-10.1
23.9
63.0
45.9
31.3

1987- TTT

484.7
531.7

358.3
358.1

126.4
173.6

68.6
95.8

36.4
9.4

32.2
86.4

57.8
77.8

446.4
476.0

350.9
406.3

95.4
69.7

38.4
55.8

1988: I

461.8
469.4
474.7
465.7

359.9
363.6
365.3
369.1

101.9
105.8
109.4
96.6

97.9
57.6
66.0
27.7

17.8
183
8.3
87 7

80.1
75.9
57.7
115.4

4.0
48.2
43.4
68.9

403.9
463.3
444.8
434.5

387.8
386.7
398.6
409.9

16.1
76.6
46.2
24.6

57.9
6.0
29.9
31.2

1979
1980

1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988 "

rv

n
TTT p
rv

1
Undistributed profits (after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capital
consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained
abroad.
2
Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S.

3
Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S.
Government.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT
[Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted]
Net change in installment credit outstanding 1

Installment credit outstanding {end of period)
Period
Total

1979:
19801981:
19821983:
1984:
1985:
1986:
1987:
1988:
1988-

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Feb
Mar
May

July
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1989: Jan r
Feb p

296,483
297,566
310,682
323,536
367,868
442,538
517,755
571,833
613,022
c
666, 191
624,294
629,485
633,336
636,318
644,372
647,993
653,317
653,319
657,226
661,889
c
666, 191
670,566
674,781

Automobile

Revolving

53,357
112,475
54,894
111,936
60,838
118,956
124,218 ' 66,243
78,667
143,799
173,704 100,212
209,636 122,013
246,109 136,381
267,180 159,307
289,823 185,755
273,133 163,462
276,762 165,643
278,567 167,356
279,418 169,154
282,254 172,809
283,359 174,927
285,560 177,568
284,782 178,675
286,107 181,277
287,474 184,468
289,823 185,755
291,952 186,779
294,053 188,383

1
For year-end data, change from preceding year-end; for monthly data, change from preceding
month.




Mobile
home

18,207
18,621
20,302
22,833
23,704
25,795
26,834
26,883
25,957
25,552
25,857
25,732
25,764
25,703
25,852
25,882
25,915
25,746
25,776
25,831
25,552
25,602
25,543

Other

112,444
112,115
110,586
110,242
121,698
142,827
159,272
162,460
160,578
165,061
161,842
161,348
161,649
162,043
163,456
163,825
164,274
164,116
164,065
164,117
165,061
166,233
166,802

Total

34,507
1,083
13,116
12,854
44,332
74,670
75,217
54,078
41,189
53,169
5,036
5,191
3,851
2,982
8,054
3,621
5,324
2
3,906
4,663
4,302
4,374
4,215

Automobile

Revolving

13,736
539
7,020
5,262
19,581
29,905
35,932
36,473
21,071
22,643
3,250
3,629
1,805
851
2,836
1,106
2,201
-779
1,325
1,366
2,350
2,129
2,101

8,155
1,537
5,944
5,405
12,424
21,545
21,801
14,368
22,926
26,448
1,397
2,181
1,713
1,798
3,655
2,118
2,641
1,107
2,602
3,190
1,288
1,023
1,604

Mobile
home

1,286
414
1,681
2,531
871
2,091
1,039
49
926
-405
-69
125
32
61
149
29
33
169
30
54
-278
50
59

Other
11,330
329
-1,529
344
11,456
21,129
16,445
3,188
1 882
4,483
458
-494
301
394
1,413
368
449
158
-50
52
944
1,172
569

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

29

INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS
Interest rates fell in April.
PERCENT PER ANNUM

PERCENT PER ANNUM

COUNCIL OF ECONOi

E. SEE TABLE BELOW

[Percent per annum]
U.S. Treasury security yields
Period

3-month bills
(new issues) *

1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1988- Apr

May
July
Sept

Oct
Nov

Dec
1989- Jan
Feb

. .

Mar
Week ended:
1989: Apr 1 r.
8
15
22
29
May 6
1

Constant maturities 2
3-year

10-year

High-grade
municipal
bonds
(Standard &
Poor's) 3

30



Prime
commercial
paper,
6 months l

Discount rate
(N.Y. F.R.
Bank) 5

Prime rate
charged by
banks 5

New-home
mortgage
yields
(FHLBB)6

14.029
10.686
8.63
9.58
7.48
5.98
5.82
6.69

14.44
12.92
10.45
11.89
9.64
7.06
7.68
8.26

13.91
13.00
11.10
12.44
10.62
7.68
8.39
8.85

11.23
11.57
9.47
10.15
9.18
7.38
7.73
7.76

14.17
13.79
12.04
12.71
11.37
9.02
9.38
9.71

14.76
11.89
8.89
10.16
8.01
6.39
6.85
7.68

13.41
11.02
8.50
8.80
7.69
6.33
5.66
6.20

18.87
14.86
10.79
12.04
9.93
8.33
8.22
9.32

14.70
15.14
12.57
12.38
11.55
10.17
9.31
9.19

5.92
6.27
6.50
6.73
7.02
7.23
7.34
7.68
8.09

7.83
8.24
8.22
8.44
8.77
8.57
8.43
8.72
9.11

8.72
9.09
8.92
9.06
9.26
8.98
8.80
8.96
9.11

7.91
8.01
7.86
7.87
7.86
7.71
7.54
7.58
7.66

9.67
9.90
9.86
9.96
10.11
9.82
9.51
9.45
9.57

6.92
7.31
7.53
7.90
8.36
8.23
8.24
8.55
8.97

6.00-6.00
6.00-6.00
6 00 6 00
6.00-6.00
6.00-6.50
6.50-6.50
6.50-6.50
6.50-6.50
6.50-6.50

8.50-8.50
8 50 9 00
9.00-9.00
9.00-9.50
9.50-10.00
10.00-10.00
10.00-10.00
10.00-10.50
10.50-10.50

9.13
8.95
9.26
9.17
9.06
9.26
9.10
9.43
9.39

8.29
8.48
8.83
8.70

9.20
9.32
9.61
9.40

9.09
9.17
9.36
9.18

7.41
7.47
7.61
7.49

9.62
9.64
9.80
9.79

r

9.02
9.35
9.97
9.78

6 50 6 50
6.50-7.00
7 00 7 00
7.00-7.00

10.50-10.50
10.50-11.50
11.50-11.50
11.50-11.50

9.10
8.87
8.71
8.57
8.66
8.64

9.74
9.47
9,53
9.35
9.26

9.37
9.20
9.27
9.14
9.09

7.64
7.56
7.54
7.42
7.42

9.88
9.81
9.80
9.80
9.75

10.07
9.90
9.87
9.69
9.65

7.00-7.00
7.00-7.00
7.00-7.00
7.00-7.00
7.00-7.00
7.00-

11.50-11.50
11.50-11.50
11.50-11.50
11.50-11.50
11.50-11.50
11.50-

Bank-discount basis.
Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department.
3
Weekly data are Wednesday figures.
4
Series excludes public utility issues for January 17, 1984 through October 11, 1984 due to lack
of appropriate issues.
2

Corporate
Aaa bonds
(Moody's) 4

9.52
9.82
10.03

r

5

Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week.
6
Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as
well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years.
Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS
Stock prices rose in April.
INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 (RATIOS CALE)
240
220
200
180
/ \
^
160

INDEX DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 (RATIO SCALE)
240
220
200
180
160
COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX

140

(NYSE)
\

120

^

f
/

/

\ S~^~^^
V,

—

140
120

J-/

100

100

^y—'

80

80

^s—^

v-n^J

60

^

60

I M ' ' ' 1 1 1 11 \\ i 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1
1982
1981
PERC ENT
20
40

1

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II

I1

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11

1983

1 I 1 1 1 i I t 1 1 1 1 1 I ! 1 I I 1 I |1 ! 1 t ! 1 1 1 t 1 t

1984

1986

1985

1987

r it 1 1 ( 1 1 i 11
M 1 I? \ I l1 l l

1988

PERC :ENT

20
15

15
10

^

v.
\.

1

EARNINGS-PRICE RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS
(S&P1

--

\^r^_-

5

^

1

0

1

1

1

1981

1 1
1982

SOURCES, NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE A

1

1

1

1983

I

1

1

1

1

1985

1984

ND STANDARD & POC

^

1

1

1

1

1986

10

/n__-—'
i i i ! 1
1987

5

1

1988
COUNCIL OF

R'S CORPORATION

Common stock prices 1
Period

1981
1982
1983
1984

1985.
1986
1987
1988
1988: Apr
May
June
July

Auer
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dee

1989: Jan
Feb
Mar r
Apr
Week ended:
1989: Apr I r.
8
15
22
29
1

Industrial

Transportation

Utility




1

1

0

1989
ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Finance

Dow-Jones
industrial
average 3

Standard &
Poor's
composite
index (194143=10) 4

Dividendprice ratio

74.02
68.93
92.63
92.46
108.09
136.00
161.70
149.91

85.44
78.18
107.45
108.01
123.79
155.85
195.31
180.95

72.61
60.41
89.36
85.63
104.11
119.87
140.39
134.12

38.91
39.75
47.00
46.44
56.75
71.36
74.30
71.77

73.52
71.99
95.34
89.28
114.21
147.20
146.48
127.26

932.92
884.36
1,190.34
1,178.48
1,328.23
1,792.76
2,275.99
2,060.82

128.05
119.71
160.41
160.46
186.84
236.34
286.83
265.79

148.46
144.99
152.72
152.12
149.25
151.47
156.36
152.67
155.35

180.88
176.02
184.92
184.09
179.72
182.18
188.58
183.79
187.75

133.43
127.63
136.02
136.49
132.53
136.27
141.93
138.60
144.07

69.40
68.65
72.25
71.50
70.67
71.83
74.19
73.83
74.81

121.67
120.35
129.04
129.99
130.77
133.15
134.66
129.61
128.83

2,036.13
1,988.91
2,104.94
2,104.22
2,051.29
2,080.06
2,144.31
2,099.04
2,148.58

262.61
256.12
270.68
269.05
263.73
267.97
277.40
271.02
276.51

160.40
165.08
164.60
169.38

194.62
200.00
199.20
204.81

153.09
162.66
160.14
164.32

75.87
77.84
77.66
79.69

132.26
137.19
137.91
143.26

2,234.68
2,304.30
2,283.11
2,348.91

285.41
294.01
292.71
302.25

5.20
5.81
4.40
4.64
4.25
3.49
3.08
3.64
3.57
3.80
3.58
3.65
3.75
3.69
3.61
3.70
3.68
3.64
3.59
3.68
3.59

164.29
166.36
167.54
171.22
172.41

198.53
200.89
202.66
207.20
208.49

157.88
161.48
162.54
165.93
167.32

77.67
78.31
78.47
80.41
81.60

138.84
141.70
142.27
144.46
144.62

2,277.98
2,300.91
2,313.23
2,378.19
2,403.30

292.38
296.08
298.47
306.14
308.32

3.70
3.65
3.62
3.53
3.56

Average of daily closing prices.
Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE.
Includes 30 stocks.
4
Includes 500 stocks.
5
Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earnings3

1

Common stock5yields
(percent)

O) 2

New York Stock Exchange indexes (]
Composite

2

40

1989

Earningsprice ratio

11.96
11.60
8.03
10.02
8.12
6.09
5.48
8.00

7.92
8.36
8.55

price ratios based on prices at end of quarter.
NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

31

FEDERAL FINANCE
FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT
In the first 6 months of fiscal 1989, there was a deficit of $128.4 billion, compared with a deficit of $119.6 billion
a year earlier.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,200.1
RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS-!-'

1,200

1,100

1,100
OUTLAYS^

1,000

1,000

\
900

900

800

800

700

700

600

600

\i
SURPLUS OR DEFICIT Mi/

0

-100

^^

\

-200

XI
^1981

1

^^^

I
1982

1
1983

1
1984

1
1985

|
1986

-200

1
1987

1
1988

1
1989

|\
1990^

FISCAl YEARS
I/ INCLUDES ON-8UDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]

Receipts
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989 (estimates) l
1990 (estimates) 1

Cumulative total, first 6
months: 2
Fiscal year 1988
Fiscal year 1989

Outlays

Surplus
or deficit
(-)

Receipts




Outlays

Surplus
or deficit
(-)

Receipts

Outlays

Gross Federal debt
(end of period)
Surplus
or deficit
(-)

Total

Held by
the public

298.1
81.2
355.6
399.6
463.3
517.1
599.3
617.8
600.6
666.5

371.8
96.0
409.2
458.7
503.5
590.9
678.2
745.7
808.3
851.8

73 7
-14.7
-53.6
-59.2
-40.2
-73.8
-78.9
127.9
-207.8
1853

231.7
63.2
278.7
314.2
365.3
403.9
469.1
474.3
453.2
500.4

302.2
76.6
328.5
369.1
403.5
476.6
543.0
594.3
661.2
686.0

-70.5
-13.3
-49.7
54 9
-38.2
72 7
-73.9
1200
-208.0
-185.6

66.4
18.0
76.8
85.4
98.0
113.2
130.2
143.5
147.3
166.1

69.6
19.4
80.7
89.7
100.0
114.3
135.2
151.4
147.1
165.8

-3.2
— 1.4
-3.9
43
-2.0
11
-5.0
-7.9
.2
.3

629.0
643.6
706.4
776.6
828.9
908.5
994.3
1,136.8
1,371.2
1,564.1

477.4
495.5
549.1
607.1
639.8
709.3
784.8
919.2
1,131.0
1,300.0

734.1
769.1
854.1
909.0
979.3
1,065.6

946.3
990.3
1,003.8
1,064.0
1,143.0
1,160.4

2123
-221.2
-149.7
-155.1
-163.7
-94.8

547.9
568.9
640.7
667.5
711.8
776.4

769.5
806.8
810.0
861.4
932.1
939.5

-221.6
-237.9
-169.3
193 9
-220.4
163 1

186.2
200.2
213.4
241.5
267.5
289.2

176.8
183.5
193.8
202.7
210.9
220.9

9.4
16.7
19.6
38.8
56.7
68.3

1,817.0
2,120.1
2,345.6
2,600.8
2,868.8
3,107.2

1,499.4
1,736.2
1,888.1
2,050.2
2,193.8
2,285.0

412.7
441.5

532.4
569.9

-119.6
-128.4

300.5
316.0

432.5
466.2

1320
-150.2

112.3
125.5

99.8
103.7

12.4
21.8

2,480.9
2,748.7

1,990.9
2,140.9

1
Estimates of February 9, 1989. Asset sales are included in 1989 data. Data for 1990 exclude
proposed loan asset sales { — $3.6 billion) and the impact of credit reform, which is proposed to start
that year. The Administration endorses credit reform and loan asset sales.
2
Data from Monthly Treasury Statement for March 1989, issued April 1989.

32

Off-budget

On-budget

Total
Fiscal year or period

NOTE.—Data are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1990, January
1989, except as noted.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND
OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
In the first 6 months of fiscal 1989, receipts were $28.8 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $37.5
billion higher.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
500

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
500
RECEIPTS!/

.—- —

INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES

400

A

400

-~~ ____

300

300

.„,

200

SOCIAL INSURANCE
TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS
OTHER RECEIPTS
/

100

"

0

I

'

~i

,,

T

i

i

|

CORPORATION
INCOME TAXES

200

.„ . -

100

1

i

1

0
900

900
OUTLAYS^/

800

-NONDEFENSE

800

—3

700

700

600

600

500

500

400

400
NATIONAL DEFENSE

300

300
200

200

198)

1982

1983

1984

1985

1987

1986

1988

1989

1990

FISCAL YEARS
J/'INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]
On-budget and off-budget outlays

On-budget and off-budget receipts

Fiscal year
Total

1976
1977.
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989 (estimates) l
1990 (estimates)1
Cumulative total, first 6
months: 2
Fiscal year 1988
Fiscal year 1989
1
2

298,1
355.6
399.6
463.3
517.1
599.3
617.8
600.6
666.5
734.1
769.1
854.1
909.0
979.3
1,065.6
412.7
441.5

Individual
income
taxes

Corporation
income
taxes

Social
insurance
taxes
and
contributions

131.6
157.6
181.0
217.8
244.1
285.9
297.7
288.9
298.4

41.4
54.9
60.0
65.7
64.6
61.1
49.2
37.0
56.9

90.8
106.5
121.0
138.9
157.8
182.7
201.5
209.0
239.4

34.3
36.6
37.7
40.8
50.6
69.5
69.3
65.6
71.8

371.8
409.2
458.7
503.5
590.9
678.2
745.7
808.3
851.8

61.3
334.5
63.1
349.0
83.9
392.6
94.5
401.2
53 1.5
58 3.9

265.2
283.9
303.3
334.3
364.7
391.9

73.0
73.1
74.3
78.9
80.1
83.8

38.6
42.0

151.6
167.6

38.2
41.3

184.3
190.6

See footnote 1, page 32.
Data from Monthly Treasury Statement for March 1989, issued April 1989.




National defense

Other

Income
security

Social
securi'y

Net
interest

Other

15.8
19.3
22.8
26.5
32.1
39.1
46.6
52.6
57.5

60.8
61.0
61.5
66.4
86.5
99.7
107.7
122.6
112.7

73.9
85.1
93.9
104.1
118.5
139.6
156.0
170.7
178.2

26.7
29.9
35.4
42.6
52.5
68.7
85.0
89.8
111.1

82.8
93.0
114.7
119.6
131.4
133.5
125.4
122.3
118.6

33.5
35.9
40.0
44.5
49.8
53.7

65.8
70.2
75.1
78.9
86.8
94.8

128.2
119.8
123.3
129.3
137.0
138.3

188.6
198.8
207.4
219.3
232.3
246.6

129.4
136.0
138.6
151.7
168.8
173.3

131.8
142.1
125.9
139.4
160.8
136.1

21.5
23.4

39.0
40.4

66.0
69.7

106.8
113.1

76.6
83.6

71.3
83.6

Department of
Defense,
military

International
affairs

Health

89.6
97.2
104.5
116.3
134.0
157.5
185.3
209.9
227.4

87.9
95.1
102.3
113.6
130.9
153.9
180.7
204.4
220.9

6.4
6.4
7.5
7.5
12.7
13.1
12.3
11.8
15.9

15.7
17.3
18.5
20.5
23.2
26.9
27.4
28.6
30.4

946.3
990.3
1,003.8
1,064.0
1,143.0
1,160.4

252.7
273.4
282.0
290.4
298.3
300.4

245.2
265.5
274.0
281.9
289.8
291.2

16.2
14.2
11.6
10.5
16.3
17.2

532.4
569.9

146.4
152.4

142.3
148.0

4.7
3.9

Total
Total

Medicare

NOTE.—Data are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1990, January
1989, except as noted.
Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

33

FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS
In the first quarter of 1989, according to advance estimates, Federal expenditures rose $26.9 billion; receipts data
are incomplete.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,200

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1,200

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

1,000

- EXPENDITURES

1,000

800

800
RECEIPTS

600

600

400

400

200

200

SURPLUS OR DEFICIT (-)

-200

-200

1
1981

1982

I

J

I
1984

1983

I

J I L

L

1987

1986

1985

I
1988

I ...1
1989

CALENDAR YEARS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Federal Government expenditures

Federal Government receipts

Personal

Period
Total

tax and

nontax
receipts

Corporate
profits

Indirect
business

tax

accruals

nontax
accruals

74.6
80.7
101.7
109.9

55.9
51.2
53.2
57.0

305.8
326.0
345.2
384.8

tax and

Contributions for
social
insurance

Purchases
of goods
and
services

Transfer
payments

962.3
1,027.8
1,058.9
1,106.3

341.5
368.4
375.4
378.3

374.0
394.6
411.1
434.2

Total

Net
interest
paid

Subsidies
less
current
surplus of
Government
enterprises

97.8
107.4
103.1
108.5

128.3
134.4
139.7
150.4

20.7
22.9
29.6
34.8

Grantsin-aid to
State
and

local
governments

Surplus
or deficit
Less:
Wage
accruals
less
disbursements

(-),

national
income
and

product
accounts

Fiscal year:
1985
1986
1987
1988

776.8
815.0
901.7
964.8

401.6
413.1

Calendar year:
1985
1986
1987
1988

788.7
828.3
916.5
975.2

346.4
361.5
405.6
413.4

76.3
83.9
105.8
r
l!1.4

55.1
50.8
54.0
56.7

310.9
332.2
351.0
393.7

985.6
1,033.9
1,074.2
1,117.6

355.2
366.2
382.0
381.0

380.1
399.8
414.2
440.1

99.7
106.8
102.7
111.5

130.1
135.4
143.0
153.9

20.3
25.7
32.4
31.1

1982:
1983:
1984:
19851986:

IV
IV
IV
TV .
IV

633.1
675.5
742.7
805.3
856.8

303.0
291.9
326.0
355.3
378.3

46.4
70.2
69.7
78.8
89.7

47.6
53.6
56.2
53.5
51.0

236.1
259.8
290.7
317.7
337.8

835.7
844.7
930.2
1,017.5
1,040.1

293.2
276.1
326.0
376.6
366.7

347.4
352.5
362.1
385.8
405.4

84.5
86.0
96.3
103.5
102.3

87.2
101.0
125.3
132.7
136.5

23.4
29.1
21.0
19.0
29.1

.0
.0
.6
.0
.0

-202.6
-169.2
-187.5
212 2
-183.3

1987:

HI
IV

930.1
944.4

413.3
422.3

110.5
107.7

53.9
55.0

352.4
359.4

1,068.4
1,104.9

386.3
391.4

414.2
422.5

101.9
101.4

143.8
149.5

22.6
39.7

.2
2

-138.3
160 4

951.0
983.0
975.5
r
991.5

404.6
425.0
408.3
415.8

107.2
111.7
113.1
r
l!3.8

55.9
55.9
57.1
57.9

383.4
390.3
397.0
404.0

1,106.1
1,116.3
1,099.0
1,149.0

377.7
382.2
367.7
396.3

434.4
437.6
440.7
447.5

111.1
110.4
111.5
113.0

149.9
152.1
154.9
158.9

33.0
34.0
24.1
33.3

.0 -155.1
.0 -133.3
.0 -123.5
.0 r 157 5

58.2

418.2

1,175.9

394.8

460.5

115.5

168.9

36.2

.0

1988: I

n
m
IV

1989: I p

340.4
357.0

430.0

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

34




-0.1
.0
.1
1

-185.5
-212.8
-157.2
141 5

-196.9
-.2
.0
205 6
-157.8
.0
.0 r 142 3

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
Consumer prices (1982-84= 100)

Industrial production (1977 = 100; seasonally adjusted)
Period

United
States

108.6
111.0
103.1
109.2
121.4
123.7
125.1
129.8
137.2

1980

1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1988: Feb
Mar

134.4
134.7
135.4
136.1
136.5
138.0
138.5
138.6
139.4
139 9
' 140.4

Mav
July
Sept

Oct
Nov
Dee

r

1989- Jan
Feb
Mar "
1

!41.0

r

France

Germany

!07.2

108.0
106.2
103.1
104.1
107.6
112.9
114.9
115.6
119.6

114.4
112.6
108.5
105.8
109.2
110.4
113.5
118.0
123.9

l!6.0

•"117.6
r
l!7.6
r
l!7.8
r
l!8.1
'120.4
r
l!8.2
'123.3

M17.2

' 122.0

121.1
121.4
123.7
120.5
122.3
125.9
118.5
122.5
126.3

Canada

Japan

r

119.0
120.3
120.7
124.5
136.1
141.0
140.8
145.7
159.1

r

157.4
158.3
157.0
153.3
158.4
156.4
160.8
161.6
160.2
165.0
' 166.1

r

104.8
' 106.9
r

96.5

* 102.7
r

l!5.2
!21.4
r
!23.2
r

' 129.6
r

!37.2

' 135.2
r
135.9
' 136.1
r

!37.3
!37.9
M37.4
r
!38.7
r
!38.8
r
!37.8
r

' 137.4
r

!38.1

137.9

!41 0
141 0

' 106.1
* 105.0
""105.0

' 106.1
' 106.1
r

!07.2

' 109.4
l!2.0
r
l!3.0
r
l!2.2
r
l!2.9
r
l!4.9

r
r

116.0

r

l!3.2
l!7.9
r
l!7.1

r

!21.6

r

' 167.3
164 9

Italy

121.4
r

!23.3

r

Data relate to all urban consumers.

r

United
States '

99.8

96.7
98.5
'102.2
r

' 102.4
107.9
r

l!0.2
'114.1

118.2
r
r

115.1

!28.1

l!6.9
l!7.2
r
l!7.9
r
l!8.6
r
l!9.2
r
119.1
r
l!9.7
r
l!9.2
r
l!9.7

128.8

119.2

123.4

117.7

United
Kingdom

r

117.9
117.6

Canada

Japan

France

Germany

Italy

United
Kingdom

82.4
90.9
96.5
99.6
103.9
107.6
109.6
113.6
118.3

76.1
85.6
94.8
100.4
104.7
108.9
113.4
118.4
123.1

90.9
95.4
98.0
99.8
102.1
104.2
104.8
104.9
105.7

72.2
81.9
91.7
100.3
108.0
114.3
117.2
121.1
124.8

86.7
92.2
97.1
100.3
102.7
104.9
104.6
105.0
106.2

63.2
75.4
87.7
100.8
111.5
121.0
128.5
134.4
141.0

78.5
87.9
95.4
99.8
104.8
111.2
114.9
119.7
125.6

116.0
116.5
117.1
117.5
118.0
118.5
119.0
119.8
120.2
120.3
120.5

121.0
121.6
122.0
122.8
122.9
123.7
124.1
124.1
124.7
125.1
125.1

104.6
105.0
105.5
105.6
105.4
105.2
105.5
106.4
106.9
106.5
106.1

122.7
123.0
123.6
123.9
124.3
124.7
125.1
125.3
125.6
125.8
126.0

105.6
105.7
106.0
106.2
106.3
106.2
106.3
106.3
106.4
106.7
106.9

138.5
139.1
139.6
140.0
140.4
140.8
141.4
142.1
143.2
144.4
144.9

121.9
122.3
124.3
124.8
125.3
125.4
126.8
127.4
128.7
129.3
129.6

121.1
121.6
122.3

125.7
126.5
127.1

105.9
105.6

126.5
126.9

108.1
108.4

146.0
147.2
147 9

129.3
131.4
132.0

Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis
and International Trade Administration).

U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
[Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
General merchandise imports (customs value) 3

Merchandise exports (f.a.s. yaiue !

Period
Total

2

1982

216.4

1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988

205.6
224.0

4
4

227.2

254.1
321.8

1988- Feb
Mar
May
July
Sept

Oct
Nov
Dec

1989: Jan r
Feb ..
1
2

218.8

Capital
goods
except
automotive

Automotive
vehicles,
parts,
and
engines

Consumer
goods
(nonfood)
except
automotive

Other

General
merchandise
imports
(c.i.f.
value)

441.6

17.1
18.2
21.0
21.9
24.4
24.8
24.9

112.0
107.0
123.7
113.9
101.3
111.0
118.5

35.4
40.9
59.8
65.1
71.8
84.5
101.3

33.3
40.8
53.5
66.8
78.2
85.2
87.9

39.7
44.9
60.0
68.3
79.4
88.7
96.1

6.5
6.3
7.8
9.4
10.4
12.1
12.8

254.9
269.9
346.4
352.5
382.3
424.4
460.2

2.6
3.4
3.2
3.8
4.0
3.4
3.4
3.6
4.5
4.1
3.9

37.7
36.6
34.8
35.7
37.9
34.5
38.1
37.2
36.6
38.2
40.1

22
2.2
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.9
2.2
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1

10.0
9.6
9.5
10.5
10.2
9.7
10.2
9.4
9.8
9.8
10.1

8.6
8.4
7.9
8.1
9.0
7.8
8.9
8.7
8.1
9.1
9.2

7.6
7.5
7.2
6.5
7.4
6.6
7.3
7.9
7.7
7.5
8.2

8.4
7.8
7.3
7.6
8.3
7.5
8.5
8.1
7.7
8.4
9.1

.9
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2

38.9
38.6
36.3
37.2
39.5
36.0
39.8
38.7
38.1
39.8
41.7

-13.2
-9.8
-8.8
-8.3
-11.7
-8.0
-10.6
-9.2
-8.8
-10.7
-11.0

— 14.4
-11.7
-10.3
-9.8
-13.2
-9.5
-12.3
-10.7
-10.3
— 12.2
-12.7

4.7
4.2

37.4
39.4

22
2.1

10.7
10.2

8.8
9.8

7.0
7.8

7.8
8.5

.9
1.0

39.0
41.0

-8.7
-10.5

-10.2
-12.1

Industrial
supplies
and
matenals

Capital
goods
except
automotive

Automotive
vehicles,
parts,
and
engines

Consumer
goods
(nonfood)
except
automotive

Other 2

31.3
30.9
31.5
24.0
22.3
24.3
32.2

61.7
56.7
61.7
58.5
57.3
66.7
84.9

72.7
67.2
72.0
73.9
75.8
86.2
109.1

15.7
16.8
20.6
22.9
21.7
24.6
29.4

14.3
13.4
13.3
12.6
14.2
17.7
23.1

20.7
20.5
24.0
27.3
35.9
34.6
43.1

244.0
258.0
325.7
345.3
365.4
406.2

2.5
2.6
2.6
2.9
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.0
2.8
25
2.6

6.6
7.7
7.3
7.1
7.0
7.1
6.9
7.3
6.6
6.9
7.3

8.6
8.7
8.8
9.3
8.5
9.1
9.4
9.4
9.4
9.4
10.2

2.4
2.7
2.3
2.4
2.2
2.0
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.8

1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.2

28.7
28.9

3.0
2.8

7.0
7.7

9.3
9.3

2.3
2.4

2.5
2.5

Includes Department of Defense Military Assistance Program grant-aid ship
Includes undocumented exports to Canada
ported goods other than intraiisit shipments




Foods
feeds,
and
beverages

Industrial
supplies
and
materials

Foods,
feeds,
and
beverages

24.5
26.9
26.0
27.5
26.3
26.5
27.5
28.0
27.8
27 5
29.1

Trade balance

Principal end-use commodity category

Principal end-use commodity category

Total

Exports
(f.a.s)
less
imports
(customs
value)

Exports
(f.a.s)
less
imports
(c.i.f.)

-27.5
-52.4

-38.4
-64.2
-122.4
- 133.6
-155.1
-170.3
— 119.8 -138.4

-101.7
-126.5
-138.3
-152.1

NOTE.—Data shown include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands.
See Bureau of the Census release FT900, June 1988 for information on the seasonally adjusted
series.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

35

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
In the fourth quarter of 1988, the current account deficit decreased to $31.9 billion and the merchandise trade
deficit rose to $32.0 billion.
BILL ONS OF DOLLARS*

BILLIONS OF DOLL ARS*

10

10

5

0

5

f-

/^Fv-v^rA
B>UANLt UN | •
CURR ENT ACCOUNT

-•7
X^

0

U
V\

r\ ^

-5

MERC HANDISE TRAD E
BALANCE

~r

\

'\

5

\

Y\

\\]\

-15

15

*

x

-20
-25

BALANCE ON GOODS
''
AND SERVICES

1

^v;?v\v

X

'

'"

-40

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1981

1980

1

1

1982

1 1 1

1 1 1

1 1 1

1983

1984

1985

I \

"*^

v-

-45

20

y
i ii
\/^

k

^^J/,
1

1 1
1986

1

1 1
1987

-30
-35

-40
-45

1988

• SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMEN T OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits ( + ), debits (-—)]
Merchandise

12

Investment income 3

Period
Exports

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

224 269

237 085
211 198
201 820
219 900
215,935
1986
223 969
1987
249 570
p
1988 ...
319 905
1986: I
54,113
II
56,946
Ill
56,268
IV
56,642
1987: I
56,791
II
59,864
Ill
64,902
IV
68,013
1988: I
75,140
II
79,443
Ill
81,674
IV.... 83,648
1
2
3

Imports

249 749
265 063

247 642
— 268 900
332 422
— 338,083
368 516
—409,850
—446 430
-89,546
-90,807
-92,989
-95,174
-96,662
-99,416
-104,567
-109,205
-110,327
-109,595
— 110,844
-115,664

Net balance

Receipts

25 480
27 978
36 444

72 506
86 411
83 549
77 251

Payments

42 120
52 329
54 883

67 080
52 376
112 522 85 908
67 419
— 122 148 88837 — 62901
144 547 90 110
66 968
— 160280 103 756 — 83 381
— 126 525 108 190 — 105 589
-35,433 24,352 -17,357
-33,861 22,248 -17,533
-36,721 21,845
-15,729
-38,532 21,667 -16,350
-39,871 24,791 -19,715
-39,552 22,429 -20,737
-39,665 23,289 -22,222
-41,192 33,248 -20,709
-35,187 26,523 -25,395
-30,152 23,380 -25,366
-29,170 25,751 -26,985
-32,016 32,537 -27,843

Excludes military.
Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage.
Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the

36




Net

30 386
34 082
28 666
24 875
18 489
25936
23 142
20375
2 601
6,995
4,715
6,116
5,317
5,076
1,692
1,067
12,539
1,128
-1,986
-1,234
4,694

Net
military
transactions

2 237
1 183

Net
travel and
transportation
receipts

997
144
992
4 227
8 604

274
243
2 099
— 3 431 — 10 049
9 344
4 372
— 2 368 — 10,281
4 229 — 6980
-1,408 -2,456
-1,283 -2,070
-1,076 -2,407
-2,410
-605
-78 -2,597
-2,516
-179
-2,521
-851
-1,261 -2,648
— 1,033 -2,119
-914
-1,674
-1,562
-857
-1,623
-1,425

Other
services,
net3

Balance on
goods and
services

Remittances,
pensions,
and other
unilateral
transfers '

Balance
on current
account

1 873
7 593
9 466
7 793
6884
— 7460
14 344
9 278
— 8 679
278 — 8 956
9 320
36 766 — 9480 —46 246
9 908
12 102 — 107 077
9 760
94 975
9,600 — 100,093 -15,010 — 115,103
15 308
138 828
123 520
11 600
12,035 — 140,519 -13,445 -153,964
13 385 — 121 748 — 13,584 — 135,332
2,817 -29,485 -2,972 -32,457
2,870 -29,629 -4,085 -33,714
-4,249 -35,537
2,800 -31,288
3,112 -33,118 -4,003 -37,121
2,813 -34,657 -2,967 -37,624
2,828 -37,727 -3,125 -40,852
2,983 -38,987 -2,980 -41,967
3,412 -29,150 -4,373 -33,523
3,360 -33,851 -3,147 -36,998
-31,037 -2,777 -33,814
3,689
3,431 -29,392 -3,215 -32,607
2,902 -27,468 — 4,444 -31,912

United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

U.S.

INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued

In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $33.5 billion in the fourth quarter of
1988, compared with an increase of $27.8 billion in the third quarter. Liabilities to private foreigners reported by
J.S. banks, excluding Treasury securities, increased $35.8 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase
}f $29.2 billion in the third quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*

30

80

l\
I \
-

60

60

CHANGE IN
FOREIGN ASSETS
IN THE U.S..NET

40

40

20

20

-20

-20

-40

-40

-60

-60

1980
•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
U.S. assets abroad, net
[increase/capital outflow (— )]
Period
Total

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988"

U.S.
official
reserve
assets 1 z

Other U.S.
Government
assets

39,050
50,128
69,884
62,192

2,719
15,838
15,779
1,171

36,331
34,291
54,104
61,020

9,033
8,100
-8,133
6,565

3,006
2,786
-3,876
3,655

44,919
46,595
48,087
48,511

67
-170
252
1,012

9,049
-26,127
-25,576
-43,645

33,100
50,660
71,658
56,072

13,977
10,332
611
20,047

19,122
40,327
71,047
36,025

-6,547
13,071
-4,399
16,342

4,141
2 615
-4,658
3,138

48,824
45,140
45,070
45,798

814
-801
1,990
3,266

5,817
-18,295
33833
-45,718

26,066
65,495
48,097
71,080

24,670
5,946
-2,534
10,930

1,395
59,549
50,631
60,150

4,428
-12,624
23,733
1,013

3,893
-3,425
-5,119
4,653

43,186
41,028
47,788
47,802

-206
-211
-1,592
10

n
m

11,072
-22,878
-25,292
-38,891

1,956
3,419
32
3,741

6,505
-19,057
-39,223
IV"... -40,181

1,503
39
-7,380
2,272

n
m

1
Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDRs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve
position in the IMF.
2
Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.




U.S. official
reserve
assets, net *
(unadjusted,
end of
period)

-15,305
-24,320
-24,901
31 777

-115
16
280
132

IV
I

Other
foreign
assets

Of which:
Seasonal
adjustment
discrepancy

42,615
78,072
90,154
79,023
99,481
131,096
185,746
166,522
171,726

-15,626
-24,515
-26,213
-31,635

1988:

Foreign
official
assets

Total (sum
of the items
with sign
reversed)

15,497
4,960
3,593
5,845
3,140
1 196
35,507
44,968
39,012

n
m
IV
I

Total

Statistical discrepancy
Allocations
of special
drawing
rights
(SDRs)

58,112
83,032
93,746
84,869
102,621
129,900
221,253
211,490
210,738

-8,155
5 175
-4,965
-1,196
-3,131
-3,858
312
9,149
-3,566

1987:

U.S.
private
assets

-5,162
72 802
5097 - 100,679
110058
-6,131
-5,006
-43,576
-5,489
13685
2 829 -25,950
96303
-2,000
1,162
-86,297
92029
3,641

-86,118
110,951
-121,153
49,777
-22,304
-32,636
-97,991
75987
-91,954

1986: I

Foreign assets in the U.S., netz
[increase /capital inflow ( + )]

1,152
1,093

24,982
19,942
36,085
11,154
26,760
17,839
15,566
18,461
16,548

26,756
30,074
33,958
33,747
34,934
43,186
48,511
45,798
47,802

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Anal) is) and Department of the
Treasury.

37

Contents
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING

page

Gross National Product
Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product
Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures
Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits
National Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Sources of Personal Income
Disposition of Personal Income
Farm Income
Corporate Profits
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment

1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
Status of the Labor Force
Selected Unemployment Rates
Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Employment Cost Index—Private Industry
Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector

11
12
13
14
15
15
16

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures
New Construction
New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates
Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

17
18
19
19
20
21

PRICES
Producer Prices
Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers
Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods
Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers

22
23
24
24
25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures
Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets
Aggregate Reserves and Monetary Base
Bank Loans and Securities
Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business
Consumer Installment Credit
Interest Rates and Bond Yields
Common Stock Prices and Yields

26
27
27
28
29
29
30
31

FEDERAL FINANCE
Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt
Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function
Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis

32
33
34

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries
U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports
U.S. International Transactions

35
35
36

General Notes
Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.
Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.
Symbols used:
* Preliminary.
' Revised.
c
Corrected.
... Not available (also, not applicable).
NSA not seasonally adjusted.
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, B.C. 20402. Price $2.25 (single copy) ($2.81 foreign).
Subscription price: $24.00 per year; $30.00 for foreign mailing.

38




U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1989

0—97-472