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99th Congress, 2d Session

Economic Indicators
APRIL 1986
Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the




Council of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1986

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
DAVID R. OBEY, Wisconsin, Chairman
JAMES ABDNOR, South Dakota, Vice Chairman
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana)
PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland)
AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California)
JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York)
FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California)
CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio)
DAN LUNGREN (California)
OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine)
BOBBI FIEDLER (California)

SENATE
WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware)
STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho)
MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia)
ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York)
PETE WILSON (California)
LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas)
WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin)
EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts)
PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland)

SCOTT LILLY, Executive Director
ROBERT J. TOSTERUD, Deputy Director

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
BERYL W. SPRINKEL, Chairman
THOMAS G. MOORE, Member
[PUBLIC LAW 120—SlsT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION]
JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55]
To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"
Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the
Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that
a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant
at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two
copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the
Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for
distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies
printed for sale to the public.
Approved June 23, 1949.
Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce,
Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.50 a single copy
($3.13 foreign), or by subscription at $27.00 per year ($33.75 for foreign
mailing) from:
SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402




TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
According to preliminary estimtes for the first quarter, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 5.8 percent
(annual rate) or $57.4 billion. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 3.2 percent and the implicit price
deflator rose 2.5 percent.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
4,400

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)
4,400

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

4,000

4,000

GNP
IN CURRENT DOLLARS

3,600

3,600

\
3,200

3,200

GNP
IN 1982 DOLLARS
2,800

2,800

2,400

2,400

2,000

2,000

I

1,600

I

1978

I

I

1

I

1979

I
1980

I
1981

I

I

I

I

I

1983

1982

I
1984

I

I

1985

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1,600
1986

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Gross
private
domestic
investment

2,249.7
2,508.2
2,732.0
3,052.6
3,166.0
3,401.6
3,774.7
3,988.5

1,403.5
1,566.8
1,732.6
1,915.1
2,050.7
2,229.3
2,423.0
2,582.3

416.8
454.8
437.0
515.5
447.3
501.9
674.0
669.3

1982: m

3,179.4
3,212.5

2,065.6
2,117.0

1983: I

3,268.7
3,365.1
3,437.5
3,535.0

1984: I

Period

Gross
national
product

Exports iuid imports of goods
tmd services

Government purch ases of
goocIs and senices
Federal

Net
exports

Total

~
and

Exports

Imports

18.8
32.1
33.9
26.3
-5.3
-59.2
-78.5

227.5
291.2
351.0
382.8
361.9
354.1
384.6
369.9

223.4
272.5
318.9
348.9
335.6
359.4
443.8
448.4

425.2
467.8
530.3
588.1
641.7
675.7
736.8
815.4

161.8
178.0
208.1
242.2
272.7
284.8
312.9
355.4

108.9
121.9
142.7
167.5
193.8
215.7
237.0
261.9

52.9
56.1
65.4
74.8
78.9
69.2
76.0
93.6

263.4
289.9
322.2
345.9
369.0
390.9
423.9
460.0

2,221.0
2,495.2
2,740.3
3,028.6
3,190.5
3,408.0
3,707.6
3,981.1

452.2
409.6

14.5
14.1

359.9
335.9

345.4
321.9

647.1
671.8

275.3
293.2

197.3
205.4

78.0
87.7

371.8
378.7

3,188.4
3,272.4

2,146.0
2,210.1
2,254.9
2,306.3

425.0
483.7
521.2
577.6

28.4
-2.6
-19.7
-27 .4

344.6
345.0
358.0
368.8

316.2
347.5
377.6
396.2

669.3
673.8
681.1
678.6

287.1
287.0
286.0
279.2

209.4
214.5
215.8
222.9

77.8
72.5
70.2
56.2

382.2
386.9
395.1
399.4

3,311.4
3,370.6
3,440.3
3,509.5

3,676.5
3,757.5
3,812.2
3,852.5

2,358.6
2,414.4
2,439.0
2,480.1

658.8
673.3
687.9
676.2

-37.4
65.3
-61.9
72.2

375.4
382.3
391.4
389.5

412.8
447.6
453.3
461.7

696.5
735.1
747.3
768.4

285.6
314.8
318.5
332.9

228.3
235.8
236.2
247.5

57.3
79.0
82.2
85.4

410.9
420.3
428.8
435.5

3,584.4
3,688.7
3,743.9
3,813.5

1985: I

n
in
rv

3,917.5
3,960.6
4,016.9
4,059.3

2,525.0
2,563.3
2,606.1
2,634.8

657.6
672.8
666.1
680.7

-42.3
-70.3
-87.8
-113.4

379.6
369.2
363.2
367.8

421.9
439.5
451.0
481.2

777.2
794.8
832.5
857.2

334.4
337.8
364.8
384.7

249.5
256.0
269.9
272.1

84.9
81.7
95.0
112.6

442.8
457.1
467.7
472.5

3,899.0
3,945.0
4,016.7
4,063.6

1986: I *

4,116.7

2,670.6

708.0

-95.1

378.4

473.6

833.1

354.3

266.6

87.7

478.8

4,086.9

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

rv

n
ni
IV

n
ni
rv

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




4.1

National
defense

Nondefense

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS
[Billions of 1982 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

Gross
national
product

Personal
consumption
expenditures

Gross privat e
dome stic invest nent

Goverm[nent purcb ases of
gooc s and senaces

Ex]>orts of go ods
a nd service $

Nonresidential
fixed

Residential
fixed

Change
in
business
invento-

Federal
Net
exports

Exports

Imports

Total
Total

National

Nondefense

State
and
local

Final
sales

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

3,115.2
3,192.4
3,187.1
3,248.8
3,166.0
3,277.7
3,492.0
3,570.0

1,961.0
2,004.4
2,000.4
2,024.2
2,050.7
2,145.9
2,239.9
2,313.0

362.1
389.4
379.2
395.2
366.7
360.1
430.3
472.0

178.0
170.8
137.0
126.5
105.1
148.7
168.3
171.2

36.8
15.0
-6.9
23.9
-24.5
-5.5
62.7
5.7

-26.8
3.6
57.0
49.4
26.3
-19.4
85.0
-108.4

312.6
356.8
388.9
392.7
361.9
349.4
370.9
359.9

339.4
353.2
332.0
343.4
335.6
368.8
455.9
468.3

604.1
609.1
620.5
629.7
641.7
647.8
675.9
716.4

233.7
236.2
246.9
259.6
272.7
275.5
292.5
322.6

160.7
164.3
171.2
180.3
193.8
207.3
220.3
235.7

73.0
71.9
75.7
79.3
78.9
68.3
72.3
86.9

370.4
373.0
373.6
370.1
369.0
372.2
383.3
393.8

3,078.4
3,177.4
3,194.0
3,225.0
3,190.5
3,283.1
3,429.3
3,564.3

1982: HI
IV

3,154.5
3,159.3

2,051.8
2,078.7

358.0
352.3

100.1
115.8

-9.4
-59.3

11.7
11.7

359.5
336.0

347.8
324.3

642.5
660.1

273.8
289.5

197.0
201.4

76.9
88.2

368.6
370.6

3,164.0
3,218.6

1983: I

3,190.6
3,259.3
3,303.4
3,357.2

2,096.4
2,137.2
2,161.8
2,188.1

337.5
346.9
363.4
392.9

127.2
145.8
161.6
160.4

42.2
-3.7
1.4
22.6

22.5
-15.0
-36.2
-48.9

342.8
342.4
353.1
359.1

320.3
357.4
389.3
408.0

649.1
648.2
651.5
642.2

279.2
277.6
277.4
267.9

203.8
206.9
206.5
211.8

75.4
70.6
70.9
56.1

369.9
370.6
374.1
374.3

3,232.8
3,263.0
3,302.1
3,334.6

1984: I

3,449.4
3,492.6
3,510.4
3,515.6

2,210.9
2,243.0
2,243.4
2,262.0

398.8
426.8
437.6
457.8

166.6
170.0
170.8
166.0

83.6
66.0
64.9
36.1

-60.6
-90.4
-88.7
-100.2

362.7
366.6
376.9
377.3

423.3
457.0
465.6
477.5

650.1
677.1
682.4
693.9

271.4
294.8
296.7
307.3

214.1
219.6
219.6
227.9

57.3
75.2
77.1
79.5

378.6
382.4
385.7
386.6

3,365.7
3,426.6
3,445.5
3,479.5

1985: I

n
m
rv

3,547.8
3,557.4
3,584.1
3,590.8

2,288.6
2,303.5
2,329.6
2,330.4

457.2
470.9
473.7
486.5

166.7
169.6
173.1
175.5

15.8
15.1
-1.8
6.3 .

-71.8
-101.1
-119.8
-140.8

368.7
358.2
353.5
359.2

440.5
459.3
473.3
500.0

691.4
699.4
729.2
745.5

304.3
305.9
331.1
349.0

226.7
231.5
243.3
241.3

77.6
74.3
87.9
107.7

387.1
393.6
398.1
396.5

3,532.0
3,542.3
3,585.8
3,597.1

1986: I "

3,619.2

2,354.8

469.1

179.6

26.0

-126.0

369.4

495.4

715.6

316.7

237.0

79.7

398.9

3,593.2

n
m
rv
n
m
rv

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
[1982 — 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted]
Gross j rivate
domestic iiivestment

Personal c onsumption
expen ditures
Period

national
product

Total

Durable
goods

Nondurable goods

Services

Nonresidential

Exports an . imports of
goods am1 services

Gove •nment pure lases of goo ds and
sennces
Federal

Residential fixed

Exports

Imports
Total

National
defense

Nondefense

State
and local

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

72.2
78.6
85.7
94.0
100.0
103.8
108.1
111.7

71.6
78.2
86.6
94.6
100.0
103.9
108.2
111.6

76.9
82.1
89.2
95.7
100.0
102.1
103.9
104.7

71.9
80.0
89.4
96.9
100.0
102.0
105.4
107.7

69.8
75.6
83.9
92.6
100.0
105.7
111.5
116.8

71.5
77.8
85.1
93.4
100.0
98.9
99.4
100.9

72.6
81.4
89.4
96.6
100.0
102.2
106.4
108.4

72.8
81.6
90.2
97.5
100.0
101.4
103.7
102.8

65.8
77.1
96.0
101.6
100.0
97.5
97.4
95.8

69.2
75.4
84.3
93.3
100.0
103.4
107.0
110.2

67.8
74.2
83.4
92.9
100.0
104.0
107.6
111.1

72.4
78.0
86.4
94.3
100.0
101.3
105.1
107.7

71.1
77.7
86.2
93.4
100.0
105.0
110.6
116.8

1982: III
IV

100.8
101.7

100.7
101.8

100.4
100.7

100.5
101.0

100.9
102.7

100.8
100.7

100.4
99.1

100.1
100.0

99.3
99.3

100.5
101.3

100.2
102.0

101.5
99.5

100.9
102.2

1983: I

102.4
103.2
104.1
105.3

102.4
103.4
104.3
105.4

101.3
101.6
102.4
103.1

100.7
101.9
102.4
103.1

103.9
105.0
106.2
107.8

100.1
98.9
98.3
98.4

102.0
100.3
103.2
103.1

100.5
100.8
101.4
102.7

98.7
97.2
97.0
97.1

102.8
103.4
103.1
104.2

102.7
103.7
104.5
105.3

103.1
102.6
99.0
100.1

103.3
104.4
105.6
106.7

1984: I

106.6
107.6
108.6
109.6

106.7
107.6
108.7
109.6

103.4
103.9
104.1
104.2

104.5
104.8
105.5
106.6

109.2
110.8
112.5
113.5

98.8
99.2
99.6
100.1

103.6
106.5
107.6
107.9

103.5
104.3
103.8
103.2

97.5
98.0
97.3
96.7

105.2
106.8
107.3
108.3

106.6
107.4
107.6
108.6

99.9
105.0
106.7
107.5

108.5
109.9
111.2
112.7

1985: I

n
m
rv

110.4
111.3
112.1
113.0

110.3
111.3
111.9
113.1

104.9
104.8
104.6
104.4

106.7
107.5
107.6
109.1

114.7
116.1
117.4
118.7

100.5
100.7
101.0
101.2

107.7
107.9
108.2
109.7

102.9
103.1
102.7
102.4

95.8
95.7
95.3
96.2

109.9
110.4
110.2
110.2

110.1
110.6
110.9
112.8

109.4
110.0
108.1
104.5

114.4
116.1
117.5
119.2

1986: I"

113.7

113.4

104.9

108.3

119.9

102.2

110.6

102.4

95.6

111.9

112.5

110.0

120.0

n
m
rv

n
m
IV

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND
RELATED PRICE MEASURES
[Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Ore ss national pro duct
Period

Constant
(1982)
dollars

Current
dollars

1979

11.5

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1982:

8.9
11.7
3.7
7.4
11.0
5.7
2.5
4.2
7.2
12.3
8.9
11.8
17.0
9.1
6.0
4.3
6.9
4.5
5.8
4.3
5.8

1983:

III
IV
I

1984:

IV
I

n
m
n
m
rv

1985:

I

1986:

IV
I"

n
m

2.5

2
1.9
-2.5
3.5
6.5
2.2
-3.2
.6
4.0
8.9
5.5
6.7
11.4
5.1
2.1
.6
3.7
1.1
3.0
.7
3.2

Implicit
price
deflator

8.9
9.0
9.7
6.4
3.8
4.1

3.3
5.8
3.6
2.8
3.2
3.5
4.7
5.0
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.0
3.3
2.9
3.3
2.5

NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter.

Personal consumption ej penditures

Chain price
index

Fixedweighted
price index
(1982
W3ights)

C

8.7
9.0
9.4
C
6.3
C

H.O
"4.3
3.5
C

C

5.6

4.1
3.3
3.5
C
4.0
C
4.1
C
5.2
C
4.4
3.8
C
3.4
3.5
C

C

C

C
C

3.5

2.6
3.7
2.0

2.2
.2
1.2
1.3
4.6
4.4
3.3
2.1
5.3
3.4
8.0
4.7
5.0
4.2
5.9
.1
3.4
4.8
2.6
4.6
.1
4.3

11.6
10.6
10.S
7.1

8.5
9.3

C

9.3
6.2
4.0
4.3
3.6
5.5
4.0
3.2
3.8
4.0
4.3
5.1
4.3
3.7
3.5
3.5
3.6
2.7
3.9
2.2

Implicit
price
deflator

Constant
(1982)
dollars

Current
dollars

8.7
8.7
6.6
8.5
10.3
5.6
12.5
8.4
9.4
9.4
9.8
4.1
6.9
7.4
6.2
6.8
4.5
5.5

Chain price
index

9.2
10.7
9.2

5.7
3.9
4.1
3.1
6.2
4.4

2.4
4.0
3.5
4.3
5.0
3.4
4,2
3.4
2.6
3.7
2.2
4.4
1.1

Fixedweighted
price index
(1982
weights)

9.2

8.8

10.9
9.2
5.7
4.0
C
4.3
3.4
6.3
4.8
2.2
4.2
3.7
4.4
5.1
3.7
C
4.0
3.6
2.7
3.7
2.4
C
4.6
1.5

10.5
9.0
5.6
4.0
4.3
3.4
6.3
4.8
2.3
4.2
3.8
4.4
5.2
3.8
4.2
3.6
2.7
3.8
2.6
4.6
1.5

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND
PROFITS
[Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Curren i-dollar cos and profit per unit o ' output (do liars) '

Gross c omestic
produ ct of
nonfin ancial
corporate business
(billions o f dollars)
Period
Current
dollars

1982
dollars

Total
cost
and
profit 2

Capital
consumption
allowances
with
capital
consump-

Corpt rate profits with
inventory valuation and capital
consultiption adjus tments
Indirect
business
taxes 3

Compensation of
employees

Net
interest
Total

Profits
tax

Profits
after

Output
per hour
of all
employees
(1982
dollars)

Compensation
per hour
of all
employees
(dollars)

adjustment

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
984
985 '.

1,274.1
1,417.4
1,540.8
1,738.4
1,782.2
1,915.9
2,153.1
2,280.4

982: HI
IV
383: I

n
m
rv

984: I
II
Ill
IV
1985: I

n
mr
TV

1

1,789.8
1,840.4
1,807.9
1,837.2
1,782.2
1,866.9
2,039.3
2,095.8

0.712
.770
.852
.946
1.000
1.026
1.056
1.088

0.073
.082
.095
.109
.125
.124
.119
.121

0.064
.066
.077
.090
.094
.098
.099
.102

0.473
.523
.581
.632
.676
.679
.687
.710

0.020
.024
.031
.037
.043
.039
.042
.041

0.082
.076
.068
.078
.063
.086
.108
.114

0.037
.038
.037
.035
.026
.031
.035
.029

0.044
.038
.031
.044
.037
.055
.073
.085

17.358
17.221
17.096
17.194
17.318
17.940
18.323
r
18.283

8.219
9.002
9.939
10.861
11.699
12.179
12.593
r
12.985

1,789.0
1,779.4

1,777.8
1,760.2
1,793.1
1,842.5
1,891.2
1,940.8

.127
.131
.128
.125
.124
.121
.119
.118
.119
.120
.120
.121
.121
.123

.094
.096
.096
.099
.099
.098
.098
.099
.100
.100
.100
.103
.102
.102

.679
.685
.682
.678
.676
.680
.679
.682
.691
.697
.703
.709
.709
.719

.041
.042
.040
.039
.039
.039
.039
.041
.043
.044
.043
.042
.040
.039

.065
.057
.070
.082
.092
.099
.106
.111
.107
.109
.111
.111
.120
.114

.026
.023
.023
.030
.035
.034
.038
.038
.032
.032
.029
.028
.030
.029

.038
.034
.047
.053
.057
.065
.068
.073
.075
.077
.081
.083
.090
.085

17.375
17.402

1,820.0
1,884.9
1,946.5
2,012.2
2,088.0
2,147.0
2,172.5
2,205.2

1.006
1.011
1.015
1.023
1.029
1.037
1.041
1.051
1.061
1.070
1.077
1.086
1.092
1.097

11.804
11.928
12.069
12.138
12.191
12.315

2,237.0
2,265.8
2,301.6
2,317.1

2,005.0
2,043.0
2,048.2
2,061.0
2,077.3
2,087.2
2,106.9
2,111.7

Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1982 dol-

lars.
2

This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with
the decimal point shifted two places to the left.




3
4

17.699
17.899
18.046
18.113
18.321
18.416
18.308
18.260
18.266
18.255
18.382
18.272

12.448
12.552
12.645
12.733
12.839
12.950
13.040
13.138

Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies.
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor
(Bureau of Labor Statistics).

NATIONAL INCOME
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

National
income

Compensation of
employ-

Proprietor s' income
with in ventory
valuation tind capital
consurnption
adjust ments

Farm

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 '
1982: m
IV
1983: I
HI
IV
1984: I

n
m
IV
I

n
in r
rv

1986: I "
1

Corpora e profits wit i inventory valuation anc capital
consunnption adjust ments
Profits wi th inventory valuation
adjustmer t and witho it capital
consu oiption adjus tment

tion
adjustment

Nonfarm

1,638.2
1,807.4
1,907.0
2,025.9
2,221.3
2,372.5
1,918.4
1,931.1
1,962.4
2,001.5
2,041.8
2,097.6
2,160.9
2,204.8
2,241.2
2,278.5
2,320.4
2,356.9
2,385.2
2,427.5

20.5
30.7
24.6
14.3
32.1
21.2
22.9
28.5
18.7
11.8
6.6
20.0
44.4
29.4
27.8
26.6
26.5
22.8
12.2
23.3

160.1
156.1
150.9
178.0
201.6
221.0
151.7
159.8
167.2
175.5
182.3
187.1
195.9
199.7
204.5
206.3
212.9
218.1
225.3
227.6

6.6
13.3
13.6
12.8
10.8
13.8
12.0
15.8
13.3
14.8
11.9
11.0
11.6
11.9
10.0
9.7
11.0
13.8
14.5
15.9

2,462.4

2,203.5
2,443.5
2,518.4
2,718.3
3,039.3
3,211.3
2,528.4
2,548.2
2,603.6
2,678.9
2,747.4
2,843.5
2,967.7
3,021.1
3,064.2
3,104.4
3,155.3
3,192.2
3,228.0
3,269.9

n

1985:

Rental
income of
persons
with
capital

16.0

236.4

Net
interest

Profits
before tax

Inventory
valuation
adjustment

237.1
226.5
169.6
205.0
237.6
225.3
171.6
164.1
167.1
199.8
225.4
227.6
247.4
247.4
227.7
228.0
220.0
218.7
228.6
233.8

-43.1
-24.2
-10.4
-10.0
-5.4
-.6
-10.0
-13.4
-3.4
-9.3
-18.1
-8.9
-13.0
-5.6
-1.3
-1.6
.7
2.2
4.7
-10.1

-16.8
-14.4
-9.2
18.8
41.0
70.9
-7.3
-4.5
9.7
15.5
21.0
28.9
33.5
36.0
44.8
49.8
61.1
67.2
75.9
79.4

200.9
248.1
272.3
273.6
300.2
287.4
269.1
266.9
268.5
269.4
276.4
280.3
286.9
297.6
309.5
307.0
302.9
292.4
281.8
272.6

14.2

81.7

268.9

17.8

Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.)

Capital
consumption

177.2
188.0
150.0
213.8
273.3
295.5
154.3
146.1
173.4
205.9
228.4
247.6
268.0
277.8
271.2
276.2
281.7
288.1
309.1
303.1

194.0
202.3
159.2
195.0
232.3
224.6
161.6
150.7
163.7
190.5
207.3
218.7
234.4
241.8
226.5
226.3
220.6
220.9
233.2
223.7

men

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
[Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Ketail ales of
new pa ssenger
cars (mi lions of
un ts)

Non durable gc ods

Durable goods
rp i 1

personal

Motor

Furniture
and
household
equipment

sumption
expendi-

Total
durable
goods

Ill
IV
1985: I
II
Ill
IV

1,732.6
1,915.1
2,050.7
2,229.3
2,423.0
2,582.3
2,065.6
2,117.0
2,146.0
2,210.1
2,254.9
2,306.3
2,358.6
2,414.4
2,439.0
2,480.1
2,525.0
2,563.3
2,606.1
2,634.8

219.3
239.9
252.7
289.6
331.1
361.5
252.8
263.8
268.5
285.3
295.3
309.4
321.6
330.2
331.1
341.5
351.5
356.5
376.0
362.0

90.3
100.5
108.9
130.6
153.8
168.4
108.3
115.7
115.9
129.2
134.0
143.1
150.1
154.1
153.6
157.4
163.1
165.4
183.0
162.2

86.2
92.7
95.7
107.4
119.4
129.0
96.4
99.1
102.1
105.4
109.0
113.0
116.1
118.8
119.3
123.5
125.7
127.6
128.6
134.1

42.8
46.6
48.1
51.7
57.9
64.1
48.1
49.0
50.4
50.7
52.2
53.3
55.4
57.3
58.2
60.6
62.7
63.4
64.4
65.7

681.4
740.6
771.0
817.0
872.4
912.2
776.7
786.6
792.4
811.7
826.5
837.2
856.6
873.2
876.6
883.1
895.7
910.2
914.5
928.3

1986: I p

2,670.6

362.4

162.8

134.2

65.4

939.2

Period

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1982: III
IV
1983: I

n

Ill
IV
1984: I

n

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




cles
and
parts

Other

nondurable

Clothing and
shoes

Gasoline
and oil

349.1
376.5
398.8
422.0
451.7
474.0
402.7
407.0
413.1
419.0
426.0
430.0
440.0
449.9
457.1
459.6
465.5
472.1
475.9
482.5

109.0
119.9
124.4
135.2
147.4
156.0
125.0
126.5
129.4
135.0
135.5
140.9
144.4
149.1
149.7
152.8
156.3
155.7
159.4

83.7
92.7
89.1
90.1
90.7
91.8
88.6
89.8
86.5
89.4
92.5
92.1
92.0
91.9
89.1
89.8
89.3
92.9
92.2
93.0

139.5
151.6
158.7
169.6
182.6
190.3
160.4
163.4
163.3
168.3
172.6
174.1
180.2
182.3
184.0
184.1
188.2
188.9
190.7
193.4

831.9
934.7
1,027.0
1,122.7
1,219.6
1,308.6
1,036.1
1,066.5
1,085.2
1,113.0
1,133.1
1,159.6
1,180.4
1,211.1
1,231.3
1,255.4
1,277.8
1,296.6
1,315.6
1,344.6

6.6
6.2
5.8
6.8
8.0
8.2
5.6
6.0
6.0
6.9
6.9
7.4
8.1
8.2
7.9
7.6
8.5
8.2
9.4
7.0

2.4
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.4
2.8
2.2
2.5
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.6
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.7
2.4
2.7
3.0
3.3

491.5

161.3

89.2

197.1

1,369.1

7.9

2.8

Food

146.4

Other
Domestics

Imports

SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME
Personal income rose $5.9. billion (annual rate) in March, following a rise of $14.1 billion in February. The
slowdown in March was due to subsidy payments to farmers, which declined in March following an increase in
February. Excluding these subsidy payments, personal income rose $11.8 billion in March and $7.8 billion in
February.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
3,800
3,200

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
3,800
3,200

1,600

1,600

WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS

800

800

— ,. .* »• —
.„. * . •
•

OTHER INCOME

400

400

'f

Illllilllll
1982

200

1978

1979

1981

1980

\

TRANSFER
PAYMENTS

200
1983

1985

1984

" SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1986

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

Total
personal
income

age and
disbursements

Proprietors income 3

„
income

l z

Farm

Nonfarm

Rental
income of
persons 4

Personal
dividend
income

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

1,812.4
2,033.9
2,258.4
2,520.9
2,670.8
2,836.4
3,111.9
3,293.5

1,119.3
1,252.1
1,372.0
1,510.3
1,586.1
1,675.8
1,834.9
1,960.5

107.7
122.7
138.4
150.3
163.6
179.5
193.4
206.4

27.0
31.7
20.5
30.7
24.6
14.3
32.1
21.2

149.2
160.1
160.1
156.1
150.9
178.0
201.6
221.0

9.3
5.6
6.6
13.3
13.6
12.8
10.8
13.8

43.0
48.1

1985: Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

3,258.2
3,288.6
3,271.2
3,280.5
3,290.0
3,295.5
3,309.9
3,330.8
3,347.9
3,384.3

1,930.9
1,940.5
1.946.8
1,958.5
1,959.8
1,969.3
1,981.2
1,991.5
2,003.6
2,022.2

202.2
203.5
204.8
206.1
207.3
208.5
209.5
210.5
211.5
212.4

23.8
40.4
14.4
13.8
12.2
11.6
12.9
17.5
21.0
31.4

215.2
216.9
218.6
218.8
222.1
224.8
228.9
227.2
226.9
228.7

3,386.5
3,400.6
3,406.5

2,027.0
2,033.9
2,043.5

213.3
214.3
215.3

16.2
19.6
12.1

233.9
236.4
238.9

1986:

Jan r.
Feb '.
Mar"

1
The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of
employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of
wage accruals over wage disbursements.
^ Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workers' injury
compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items.
3
With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.




Personal
interest
income

Transfer
payments 5

Less:
Personal
contributions
for social
insurance

Nonfarm
personal
income 6

52.9
61.3
63.9
68.0
74.6
78.9

182.5
221.4
271.9
335.4
369.7
385.7
442.2
456.3

244.0
273.1
324.7
368.1
410.6
442.2
454.7
484.5

69.8
81.0
88.6
104.5
112.3

119.8
132.4
149.1

1,769.3
1,983.1
2,215.8
2,465.6
2,618.7
2,795.3
3,053.3
3,246.1

11.7
12.8
13.9
14.9
15.5
16.2
11.7
16.0
13.9
17.8

78.3
78.6
78.7
78.8
78.9
79.1
79.2
79.4
79.9
80.1

463.8
462.7
461.0
457.9
453.3
449.8
448.6
450.1
451.7
452.4

479.5
480.9
481.2
480.9
490.0
486.0
488.4
489.8
491.4
492.5

147.2
147.6
148.1
149.1
149.1
149.7
150.4
151.1
151.9
153.1

3,208.2
3,221.9
3,230.5
3,240.5
3,251.9
3,258.1
3,271.2
3,287.5
3,301.0
3,326.9

17.8
17.8
17.9

80.9
82.3
83.1

452.5
451.7
450.7

501.8
502.0
502.9

157.0
157.4
157.9

3,344.1
3,354.8
3,368.2

4

With capital consumption adjustment.
Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments.
Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income,
and agricultural net interest.
5
6

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME
Real per capita disposable personal income rose again in the first quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)

6,000

4,000

4,000

1986

1978
* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Period

Personal
income

Less:
Personal
tax and
nontax

Equals:
Disposable
personal
income

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Less:
Personal
outlays *

Equals:
Personal
saving

Pere apita
disposable personal
inc( me
Current
dollars

1982
dollars

Billions of dol ars
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

1,812.4
2,033.9
2,258.4
2,520.9
2,670.8
2,836.4
3,111.9
3,293.5

261.1
304.7
340.5
393.3
409.3
411.1
441.8
492.7

1,551.2
1,729.3
1,917.9
2,127.6
2,261.4
2,425.4
2,670.2
2,800.8

Per capitii personal
consulnption
expen iitures
Current
dollars

1982
dollars

Do lars
1,441.1
1,611.3
1,781.1
1,968.1
2,107.5
2,292.2
2,497.7
2,671.8

110.2
118.0
136.8
159.4
153.9
133.2
172.5
129.0

6,968
7,682
8,421
9,243
9,724
10,328
11,263
11,703

9,735
9,829
9,722
9,769
9,725
9,942
10,412
10,483

change in
real per
capita
disposable

Saving as
percent of
disposable
personal

income

Population,
including
Armed
Forces
abroad
(thousands) z

Per cent

6,304
6,960
7,607
8,320
8,818
9,493
10,221
10,790

8,808
8,904
8,783
8,794
8,818
9,138
9,448
9,665

3.8
1.0
-1.1
.5
-.5
2.2
4.7
.7

7.1
6.8
7.1
7.5
6.8
5.5
6.5
4.6

222,629
225,106
227,754
230,182
232,549
234,829
237,067
239,317

Seas jnally adju sted annual rates

1982: m
IV

2,683.6
2,729.2

405.0
411.1

2,278.6
2,318.1

2,122.6
2,174.9

156.0
143.1

9,786
9,929

9,720
9,749

8,871
9,068

8,812
8,904

-0.7
1.2

6.8
6.2

232,851
233,466

1983: I

2,752.8
2,805.7
2,852.4
2,934.8

407.4
418.0
404.4
414.4

2,345.5
2,387.7
2,447.9
2,520.4

2,205.2
2,271.3
2,319.0
2,373.3

140.3
116.4
129.0
147.1

10,024
10,182
10,412
10,693

9,793
9,846
9,982
10,145

9,172
9,424
9,591
9,785

8,960
9,114
9,195
9,283

1.8
2.2
5.6
6.7

6.0
4.9
5.3
5.8

233,981
234,509
235,117
235,707

3,033.8
3,083.5
3,144.2
3,186.2

423.6
433.6
447.5
462.4

2,610.2
2,649.9
2,696.7
2,723.8

2,428.7
2,487.4
2,515.2
2,559.4

181.6
162.6
181.5
164.5

11,050
11,193
11,362
11,447

10,358
10,399
10,451
10,441

9,985
10,198
10,276
10,423

9,359
9,474
9,452
9,506

8.7
1.6
2.0
-.4

7.0
6.1
6.7
6.0

236,222
236,742
237,349
237,953

n
m
IV

3,240.9
3,280.1
3,298.5
3,354.3

501.7
462.4
498.2
508.5

2,739.2
2,817.7
2,800.2
2,845.9

2,608.4
2,650.6
2,697.6
2,730.6

130.9
167.2
102.6
115.2

11,487
11,790
11,687
11,847

10,411
10,595
10,447
10,479

10,588
10,726
10,877
10,969

9,597
9,639
9,723
9,702

-1.1
7.3
-5.5
1.2

4.8
5.9
3.7
4.0

238,469
238,985
239,605
240,207

1986: I"

3,397.9

503.8

2,894.1

2,769.6

124.4

12,023

10,601

11,095

9,783

4.7

4.3

240,701

n
m
IV

1984: I

n
m
IV

1985: I

1

Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business and personai transfer payments to foreigners (net).




2

Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period.
Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census).

FARM INCOME
In the fourth quarter of 1985, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income rose $27.8 billion (annual
rate) and net farm income rose $30.0 billion.
BILLIC)NS

OF DOLLA *S * (RATIO SC ALE)

BILL ONS OF DOLL/VRS * (RATIO S CALE)

240

240
200

9 (VI

160

/
^ ^ .

.
/
^"--/ GRO SS FARM INCOME

-*|
'

_

/

120

^^

^~**^

x^

160

fin

80
60

f
f

N ET FARM INCC ME

40

*

J
*>

/"*

/ "-. ' "\

X

s

X\

*•""""**

/

v

S

1
1

'

-'

,\
'

\

1
I

\

/

\

N
V

f

40

I
i

|
'
\

N '
"
\

--- /

/ \

\

f\

/

/

1

\

'

f

20
\
I

/
/

» ;

\

f

\;

I /
\ /

t

\ 1
\J

/
,^'

M

M

10

1 1 I

1 1 1

1 I1

I 1I

1977

1978

1979

1980

1

1

1

1

1
1982

1981

1

I'l

1

1983

1

1

1

1

1984

i

1

1985

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

* SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES
SOURCE: DEPARTMEN T OF AGRICULTURE

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

In come of farm ope rators from farmi "S
(jross farm ineom

Net farrr income

Cas h marketing rece pts

Total 1
Total

1984:

71.0
68.9
67.9
70.0

72.2
64.1
73.3
57.6

-10.6
-13.9
-12.9
-4.9

135.1
134.9
135.5
136.9

17.8
8.7
16.2
17.3

17.4
8.5

139.3
139.0
341.5
147.6

75.5
70.8
71.2
73.5

63.8
68.2
70.3
74.2

2.0
8.7
10.3
10.2

139.2
140.2
140.0
138.5

36.5
27.0
33.6
41.2

34.2
25.1
30.9
37.6

140.1
134.1
134.3
164.1

71.7
66.8
68.0
72.1

68.4
67.2
66.2
92.0

2.4
-1.7
-4.0
-4.8

137.0
134.9
132.8
130.6

32.5
26.9
16.2
46.2

29.4
24.2
14.4
40.8

143.2
133.0
141.2
127.6

175.7
167.3
173.7
179.8

r

HI
IV "

169.5
161.9
149.0
176.8

1
Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash
income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms.
2
Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average
prices during the year.




1982 dollars 3

66.8
69.1

136.3
141.8

I

1985: I r r

Current
dollars

5.8
-1.4
-10.6
7.8

I
II
Ill
IV

Ill
IV

Production
expenses

27.4
31.7
20.2
29.8
24.6
15.0

53.0
62.3
71.8
72.9
72.7

112.2
131.5
139.8
142.1
142.9

n

Value of
inventory
changes 2

101.0
119.0
129.4
136.1
136.9
135.6
139.5

59.2
69,2
68.0
69.2
70.3
69.4
72.7

128.4
150.7
149.6
166.0
161.6
150.6
174.0

n

Crops

152.9
143.6
151.7
154.3

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1983:

Livestock and
products

2.1
5.0
-5.9

34.5

Income in current dollars divided by the GNP implicit price deflator (1982—100),
NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Corporation loans and operator households.
Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce.

38.0
40.3
23.6
31.8
24.6
14.5
31.9

15.5
16.4

CORPORATE PROFITS
In the fourth quarter of 1985, according to revised estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $5.2 billion (annual
rate) and after-tax profits rose $5.6 billion.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
3201

1320

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

280

280

240

240

200

200

160

160

120'

120

.

80

./'

TAX LIABILITY

80

40

!40

UNDISTRIBUTED PROFITS

1 1 1

I

1977

1978

1979

I

I

I

1981

1980

I

I

I

1982

I

I

I

1

I

1

1

1984

1983

1985

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Pr )fits

Profits after ta X

(before t ax) with inve ntory valuati on adjustmen t '
Doinestic indust ies

Total

2

Total

1979
1980
1981
1982

1983
1984
1985 r
1982: III
IV

214.1
194.0
202.3
159.2
195.0
232.3
224.6

161.6
150.7
163.7
190.5

1983: I

n
in
IV

1984: I
II

m
IV

1985: I

n
mT

1986:
1
2

IV
I".

i
Profits
before tax

Nonfinaneial

Period

207.3

218.7
234.4

241.8
226.5
226.3
220.6
220.9
233.2
223.7

180.4
159.6
173.8
131.2
164.2

200.1
192.7
133.0
121.6
136.2
161.1
174.4
185.1
201.0
212.3
193.3
193.7
189.4
189.3
203.0

189.1

Financial

Total 3

27.8
21.0
16.5
11.8
22.7
19.2
22.5

152.6
138.6
157.3
119.4
141.6
180.9
170.1

12.4
18.7

120.6
102.9

22.0
25.0
22.4
21.2

114.2
136.1

20.8
20.4
17.2
18.4
19.2
22.5
23.8
24.7

152.0
163.9
180.2
191.9
176.1
175.3
170.2
166.7
179.2
164.5

See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.
Includes rest of the world, not shown separately.




turing

87.5
77.1
88.5

58.0
71.3
88.5
76.6
64.3
46.8
52.3
64.6
78.9
89.2
94.2
94.9
82.2
82.7
77.3
73.4
79.7
76.1

Tax
liability

257.2
237.1
226.5
169.6
205.0
237.6
225.3

88.0
84.8

Total

Dividends

Undistributed
profits

valuation
adjustment

retail
trade

28.7
21.6
32.5
34.6
39.1
50.7
49.4
32.9
33.6
32.6
40.8
39.9
43.1
46.8
52.7
51.5
51.8
48.7
50.6
53.6
44.6
3

171.6
164.1
167.1
199.8
225.4
227.6
247.4
247.4
227.7
228.0
220.0
218.7
228.6
233.8

81.1
63.1
75.2
93.6
85.0
64.3
59.8
58.9
73.8
84.1
84.0
99.1
100.6
87.4
87.4
83.4
82.3
87.4
87.1

169.2
152.3
145.4
106.5
129.8
144.0
140.2
107.3
104.3
108.2
126.0
141.3
143.6
148.3
146.7
140.3
140.6
136.6
136.4
141.1
146.7

Includes industries not shown separately.

Source: DeDartment of Commerce. Bureau of Eeonoi

50.1
54.7
63.6
66.9
70.8
78.1

83.5
66.6
68.5
69.3
69.6
71.1
73.1
75.3
77.5
78.9
80.7
82.0
83.1
83.9
85.0
87.6

119.1
97.6
81.8
39.6
59.0
65.9
56.7
40.7
35.8
38.9
56.4
70.3
70.6
73.1
69.2
61.3
60.0
54.6
53.3
57.3
61.7

-43.2
-43.1
-24.2
-10.4
-10.0
-5.4
-.6
-10.0
-13.4

-3.4
gg
-18.1
-8.9
-13.0
-5.6
-1.3
-1.6
.7
2.2
4.7
-10.1
14.2

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
According to preliminary estimates for the first quarter, business fixed investment fell $12.9 billion (annual rate)
from its fourth quarter level while residential investment outlays rose $6.2 billion. There was a $29.7 billion
increase in inventories following a decrease of $4.3 billion in the fourth quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
800

800

700

700

-100

-100
1985

1978
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1986

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

1
^ixed investmen t
private
investment

1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

Change iii business
mven ;ones

Nonresidential
Total
Total

Structures

Producers'
durable
equipment

Residential

Total

Nonfarm

454.8
437.0
515.5
447.3
501.9
674.0
669.3

441.9
445.3
491.5
471.8
508.3
607.0
661.8

302.8
322.8
369.2
366.7
356.3
427.9
476.2

99.5
113.9
138.5
143.3
126.1
147.6
170.2

203.3
208.9
230.7
223.4
230.2
280.2
306.0

139.1
122.5
122.3
105.1
152.0
179.1
185.6

13.0
-8.3
24.0
-24.5

452.2
409.6

461.2
469.5

360.7
354.9

140.2
137.6

220.5
217.3

100.5
114.7

-9.0
59.9

-12 A

425.0
483.7
521.2
577.6

467.7
489.2
524.0
552.1

338.0
343.0
357.3
386.8

127.6
121.5
124.7
130.5

210.4
221.5
232.6
256.3

129.7
146.2
166.7
165.4

-42.7
-5.5
2.8
25.5

-33.7
1.8
15.5
19.4

658.8
673.3
687.9
676.2

566.7
604.5
619.5
637.2

394.1
423.4
435.9
458.1

135.0
147.0
151.3
157.2

259.1
276.5
284.5
300.9

172.6
181.0
183.7
179.1

92.1
68.9
68.3
39.0

71.6
61.2
62.8
36.4

UI
IV

657.6
672.8
666.1
680.7

639.1
657.3
665.9
685.0

459.6
474.2
478.5
492.5

166.1
169.7
170.4
174.5

293.5
304.5
308.1
318.0

179.4
183.1
187.4
192.5

18.5
15.5
2
-4.3

14.2
10.8
3.1
19.0

1986: I *

708.0

678.3

479.6

174.2

305.4

198.7

29.7

30.4

1982:

m
IV

1983: I

n
m
IV

1984: I

n
m

IV

1985: I

n

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.




-6.4
67.1
7.5

7.9
-2.4
18.3
-23.1
.8
58.0
11.8

51.1

EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
According to the Commerce Department January-March 1986 survey, business spending for new plant and
equipment for the year 1986 is expected to be 2.3 percent above the 1985 level. Spending in 1985 was 9.0
percent above the 1984 level.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE)

500

500

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

400

400

ALL INDUSTRIES

300

300

200

200

r

NONMANUFACTURING -1

-MANUFACTURING

100

100

80

80

60

60

40

40
I
1978

1979

I

I I
1980

1982

1981

I

I

1983

1984

1985

_!/ PURVEYED QUARTERLY
_i/SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1986

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Industries surveyed quarterly

All
industries

Total

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 '
1986"

217.78
254.96
282.80
315.22
310.58
304.78
354.44
386.41
395.13

78.58
95.92
112.33
126.54
120.68
116.20
138.82
153.15
151.84

1984: I
II
Ill
IV

337.95
349.97
361.48
368.29

1985: I
II
Ill
IV.
1986: I 4
II4
2nd h a l f 4

Period




Total
nonfarm
business 2

Non manufactu ring

Surveyed
quarterly

Nondurable
goods

Total >

Mining

Transportation

Public
utilities

Commercial
and
other

39.46
48.50
55.36
59.81
55.35
53.08
66.24
73.14
70.99

39.13
47.42
56.96
66.73
65.33
63.12
72.58
80.01
80.86

139.18
159.04
170.47
188.68
189.89
188.58
215.61
233.26
243.28

11.22

12.81
15.99
21.39
20.05
15.19
16.86
15.88
13.89

13.36
16.05
16.60
15.84
14.79
13.97
16.52
17.97
19.02

31.50
35.63
37.74
41.21
45.43
44.96
47.48
48.74
48.50

83.09
94.56
100.14
110.24
109.63
114.45
134.75
150.67
161.88

129.91
135.96
142.44
146.96

61.23
64.03
68.26
71.43

68.68
71.93
74.18
75.53

208.04
214.01
219.04
221.33

17.24
16.38
16.82
17.00

15.29
17.01
17.49
16.28

47.08
47.94
47.92
46.92

128.42
132.67
136.80
141.13

129.91
135.96
142.44
146.96

208.04
214.01
219.04
221.33

371.16
387.83
388.90
397.74

145.65
154.33
154.04
158.57

69.87
73.96
72.85
75.87

75.78
80.36
81.19
82.70

225.51
233.51
234.86
239.16

15.66
16.51
15.94
15.40

16.22
17.50
19.09
19.06

48.46
48.47
48.14
49.89

145.17
151.02
151.69
.154.81

145.65
154.33
154.04
158.57

225.51
233.51
234.86
239.16

390.66
400.68
394.58

150.28
153.76
151.67

71.11
72.71
70.06

79.17
81.04
81.61

240.38
246.93
242.92

14.11
14.30
13.57

18.90
18.95
19.11

48.62
48.80
48.29

158.74
164.88
161.94

150.28
153.76
151.67

240.38
246.93
242.92

Durable
goods

1
Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services;
social services and membership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May
1984 survey, arc no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nomanufacturing surveyed annually") for data for these industries.
'2 "All industries" plus the part of noiunaiiufacturing that is surveyed annually.

10

Addenda

Nor manufaotui ing

M mufacturh >g

245 .34
284.94
314.47
349.26
347.47
343.35
398.99

Manufacturing

78.58
95.92
112.33
126.54
120.68
116.20
138.82
153.15
151.84

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Total

166.76
189.02
202.15
222.72
226.79
227.15
260.16

139.18
159.04
170.47
188.68
189.89
188.58
215.61
233.26
243.28

Surveyed
annually s
27.58
29.98
31.68
34.04
36.89
38.56
44.55

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE
In March, seasonally adjusted civilian employment rose 227,000 and unemployment fell 108,000.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

120

120

SfASONAUY ADJUS EC

—

_^_

—
112

—

r~—*~

^^^-^x~lf^\^

3x^^

-^~^

—

—

^---'"'

/•"*•"'"

—

X-v

100

—

r"

CIV ILIAN LABOR FORCE

XI
-^
^r~^S^

104

^

**«-— •*

--— '"""

—

CIVILIAN
EMPLOYMENT

96

96
—

92
/

x

\
^

12

—

.

__/

8

-

4

iniilnm

—

"

~-

^— "

L NEMPLOYMEN T.

.

—- <r-

8
—

Illllllllll

1978

i i i n h n i i i i i l l l l l H ! I l l l l l l l l l l Illllllllll Illllllllll

1979

1980

1982

1981

12

^
.

—

0

X- -^-r^"
^ A

1983

4

1 1|| ||| 1 1 (I ||||||||||| 0
1985

1984

1986

*16 YEARS OF AGE A ND OVER
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA]

Period

Noninstitutional
population
including
resident
Armed
Forces

Civilian ernployment
Resi-

1 h

Armed

. or Iprce
including
resident

NSA

Forces

1,597
1,604
1,645
1,668
1,676
1,697
1,706
1,701
1,702
1,705
1,702
1,704
1,726
1,732
1,700
1,702
1,698
1,691
1,691
1,693

106,559
108,544
110,315
111,872
113,226
115,241
117,167
117,036
116,958
117,044
116,726
116,976
117,069
117,522
117,814
117,832
117,927
118,477
118,779
118,900

Q

U

Employment
including
resident
Armed
Forces

Civilian
labor force

1983
1984
1985
1985: Mar
Apr
May
June....
July ....
Aug
Sept....
Oct
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan *...
Feb
Mar

166,460
169,349
171,775
173,939
175,891
178,080
179,912
179,368
179,501
179,649
179,798
179,967
180,131
180,304
180,470
180,642
180,810
181,361
181,512
181,678

100,421
100,907
102,042
101,194
102,510
106,702
108,856
108,652
108,574
108,644
108,303
108,575
108,936
109,251
109,513
109,671
109,904
110,646
110,252
110,481

104,962
106,940
108,670
110,204
111,550
113,544
115,461
115,335
115,256
115,339
115,024
115,272
115,343
115,790
116,114
116,130
116,229
116,786
117,088
117,207

1
Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc.
2
Labor force as percent of noninstitiitional population (both including resident Armed forces).
3
Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population.




Labor force
partici ation
rate (pe rcent)

15

Total

Agricultural

Part-time
Total

NSA

1979
1980
1981
1982

Unempk>yment

Nonagricultural

98,824
99,303
100,397
99,526
100,834
105,005
107,150
106,951
106,872
106,939
106,601
106,871
107,210
107,519
107,813
107,969
108,206
108,955
108,561
108,788

3,347
3,364
3,368
3,401
3,383
3,321
3,179
3,314
3,353
3,284
3,140
3,120
3,095
3,017
3,058
3,070
3,151
3,299
3,096
3,285

95,477
95,938
97,030
96,125
97,450
101,685
103,971
103,637
103,519
103,655
103,461
103,751
104,115
104,502
104,755
104,899
105,055
105,655
105,465
105,503

for

Total

6,137

5,512

7,637
8,273
10,678
10,717
8,539

5,334

8,312

5,421

8,384
8,384
8,400
8,423

5,402
5,550
5,278
5,328
5,413

5,299
5,241

5,295
5,294
5,275
5,158
5,301

and

over

economic
reasons 1
3,373
4,064
4,499
5,852
5,997

weeks

1,241
1,871

2,285
3,485
4,210

8,401
8,133
8,271
8,301
8,161

2,737
2,305
2,400
2,374
2,274
2,328
2,329
2,274
2,307
2,277
2,205

8,023

2,188

7,831

2,056
2,340
2,258

8,527
8,419

Total 2

Civil3

64.0
64.1
64.2
64.3
64.4
64.7

63.7
63.8
63.9
64.0
64.0
64.4
64.8
64.9
64.8
64.8
64.6
64.7
64.7
64.8
65.0
64.9
64.9
65.0
65.1
65.1

65.1
65.2
65.2
65.2
64.9
65.0
65.0
65.2
65.3
65.2
65.2
65.3
65.4
65.4

ian

* Data beginning January 1986 not strictly comparable with i irlier data because of change in
estimation procedures.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

11

SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
In March, the seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate fell slightly to 7.1 percent and the civilian
unemployment rate fell to 7.2 percent.
PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

25

/V

TEENAGERS
(16-19)

20

15

15

10

10

WOME N 20 YEARS
AND OVER

MEN 20 YEARS
AND OVER

Illllllllll
1982

1982

1986

1983

Illllllllll I l l l l l l l l l l Illllllllll
1984
1985
1986

'UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED.
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Unemp] oyment ra te (percen t of civilian labor force in group)

1979
1980

1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985:

Mar
Apr
May
June ....
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

1986: Jan
Feb
Mar

All
civilian
workers

5.8
7.0
7.5
9.5
9.5
7.4
7.1

Period

Unemployment
rate,
all
workers 1

5.8
7.1
7.6
9.7
9.6
7.5
7.2

4.2
5.9
6.3
8.8
8.9
6.6
6.2

5.7
6.4
6.8

7.2
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.2
6.9
7.0
7.0
6.9
6.8

7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.0
6.9

6.6
7.2
7.1

6.7
7.3
7.2

By sex and age
Men
20 years
and over

Women
20 years
and
over

Both
sexes
16-19
years

White

8.3
8.1
6.8
6.6

16.1
17.8
19.6
23.2
22.4
18.9
18.6

5.1
6.3
6.7
8.6
8.4

6.2
6.3
6.1
6.4
6.2
6.0
6.1
6.1
6.0
5.9

6.7
6.7.
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.6
6.7
6.4
6.4
6.2

5.7
6.2
6.2

6.1
6.7
6.6




Black
and
other

Black

Experienced
wage and
salary
workers

Married
men,
spouse
present

6.5
6.2

11.3
13.1
14.2
17.3
17.8
14.4
13.7

12.3
14.3
15.6
18.9
19.5
15.9
15.1

5.5
6.9
7.3
9.3
9.2
7.1
6.8

2.8
4.2
4.3
6.5
6.5
4.6
4.3

18.2
17.9
18.8
18.6
19.3
17.5
18.1
19.8
18.4
18.8

6.3
6.3
6.2
6.4
6.3
6.1
6.1
6.1
5.9
5.9

13.8
13.8
13.9
13.2
13.5
12.8
13.7
13.5
14.1
13.4

15.2
15.2
15.4

14.4
15.0
14.1
15.2
14.9
15.6
14.9

6.8
6.8
6.8
6.9
6.9
6.7
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.5

4.3
4.3
4.0
4.6
4.4
4.1
4.3
4.2
4.3
4.3

18.4
19.0
18.2

5.7
6.4
6.2

12.8
13.3
13.3

14.4
14.8
14.7

6.3
6.8
6.7

4.3
4.5
4.5

1
Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces.
2
Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours.

12

By selected grou )S

By race

Women
who
maintain
families

8.3
9.2
10.4
11.7
12.2
10.3
10.4

Fulltime
workers

5.3
6.9
7.3
9.6
9.5
7.2
6.8

Parttime
workers

8.8
8.8
9.4
10.5
10.4

9.3
9.3

Labor
force
time lost
(percent) 2

6.3

7.9
8.5
11.0
10.9
8.6
8.1

6.9
6.9

9.5
9.7

10.3
10.8
11.3
10.4
10.0
9.4

6.9
6.9
7.0
6.8
6.8
6.8
6.7
6.6

10.0
9.5
9.4
9.0
9.3
9.6
8.8
9.0

8.2
8.2
8.3
8.2
8.2
8.1
8.1
7.9
7.9
7.8

9.9
9.9
10.1

6.4
6.9
6.9

8.4
9.4
9.1

7.6
8.1
8.1

10.3
10.7
10.8

9.9

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE PROGRAMS
In March, the percentages of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for
5-14 weeks rose, while the percentages out of work for 15-26 weeks and for 27 weeks and over fell. The mean
and the median duration of unemployment fell.

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*

PERCENT DISTRIBUTION*

70

70

DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT

REASO M FOR UNEMPLOYMEI^JT
/ \

60

60

—A

v_

A/

\'

\
"X~

50

50

\

—

*"»*»
.X1'*
• t
V^

VA

' "

V

JOB LOSERS

/

—

LESS THAN
. 5 WEEKS —^

40

:v

5-14
WEEKS

*_N

REENTRANTS

30

30

—

—
*

27 WEEKS
AND OVER'

20

W

70

••^ /"""'""

~'Sv'

h EW ENTRAN s
\

10

10 2—v^v

1982

Illllllllll

1983

Illllllllll

Illllllllll

1984

1985

'

0

1982

—

JOB LEAVER!

Illllllllll Illllllllll

1986

±x^c

_^/^X ~—4^.

•x--..."

,
— ^
15-26
WEEKS

Illllllllll

*

Illllllllll

1984

1983

Illllllllll Illllllllll
1985

1986

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
He ison for anemployment:
percent distributi m

Dur ation of i nemplo}onent

Period

Unemployment
(thousands)

I'ercent

d stributioii

Stat e
progra ms

Numb er of
ks

Less
than
5
weeks

5-14
weeks

15-26
weeks

27
weeks
and
over

Average
(mean)

Medi-

Job
losers

7,637
8,273
10,678
10,717
8,539
8,312

43.1
41.7
36.4
33.3
39.2
42.1

32.3
30.7
31.0
27.4
28.7
30.2

13.8
13.6
16.0
15.4
12.9
12.3

10.7
14.0
16.6
23.9
19.1
15.4

11.9
13.7
15.6
20.0
18.2
15.6

6.5
6.9
8.7
10.1
7.9
6.8

51.7
51.6
58.7
58.4
51.8
49.8

1985: Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Get
Nov
Dec

8,384
8,384
8,400
8,423
8,401
8,133
8,271
8,301
8,161
8,023

42.1
41.9
42.6
41.6
42.1
41.7
42.0
41.6
42.7
42.1

29.5
29.9
30.6
30.4
30.0
30.6
30.2
30.8
30.2
30.7

12.6
12.2
12.5
12.4
12.9
12.8
12.5
12.8
11.0
12.1

15.9
16.0
14.3
15.5
14.9
15.0
15.3
14.8
16.1
15.1

15.9
16.1
15.0
15.5
15.5
15.5
15.5
15.4
15.7
15.4

7.0
6.8
6.7
6.8
7.1
7.2
6.9
7.0
6.9
6.9

1986: Jan
Feb
Mar

7,831
8,527
8,419

42.4
41.8
42.3

31.3
30.8
31.1

12.4
13.5
13.0

13.9
14.0
13.7

14.9
15.3
14.4

6.8
6.9
6.8

Job
leavers

Insured
unemployment

Initial
claims

Insured
unemployment,
all
regular
programs
(unadjusted)>

Reentrants

New
entrants

11.7
11.2
7.9
7.7
9.6
10.6

25.2
25.4
22.3
22.5
25.6
27.1

11.4
11.9
11.1
11.3
13.0
12.5

3,350
3,047
4,061
3,396
' 2,476
2,616

488
460
583
438
'311
397

49.6
50.3
47.6
49.6
50.2
50.8
50.2
49.1
50.0
48.8

10.2
10.1
10.4
11.7
10.7
10.7
10.3
11.1
9.9
10.9

27.4
27.1
28.4
26.6
26.1
26.9
28.3
27.2
27.2
27.6

12.8
12.5
13.6
12.1
13.1
11.5
11.1
12.7
12.9
12.8

2,620
2,575
2,562
2,581
2,609
2,585
2,560
2,535
2,560
2,564

394
390
389
398
391
386
384
380
382
391

3,113
2,766
2,455
2,337
2,523
2,361
2,212
2,227
2,468
2,884

48.0
48.7
50.3

12.7
11.7
11.9

26.3
26.8
26.0

13.0
12.8
11.8

2,591
2,610
2,654

370
392
393

3,370
3,295

Weekly average, th ousands
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

1
Includes State (50 States, District of C olumbia, Puerto Eico, am Virgin Is lands), ex- servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroac (RR) programs. Also inc udes Fede ral and S ate extended benefit programs. Does not include F ederal supplemen a) comper sation pro jram.




3,837
3,410
4,594
3,775
' 2,54:5

3,671

Source : Departn ent of Lafc or (Bureai of Labor Statistics an d Employmen and Trailling Administration).

13

NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 192,000 in March.
MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE)

MILLIONS OF PERSONS

n

—

100

90

24

—

^—~_

rd

-y-1
1

—

"" A L L f•4ONAGRICU LTURAL
ESTABLISHME NTS

—

80

—

16

70

^^f~ '

1
SERV ICE-PRODUC ING

INDUSTRIES

—

60

\"\

—

14

20
50
18
_

—

40

Li 111 lii ii il ii ml ii mlii ml ii ii ill mi li ii ii 1111 nh ii i|i
CONSTRUCTION

GO(DDS-PRODUC ING

30

INDUSTRIES
\

kiiiiiim'iT liTfiliim

20

1982

1983

Illllllllll Illllllllll

Illllllllll l||llllllll Illlllllllh
1985

1984

1982

1986

1983

1984

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
"SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1985

1986

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 seasonally adjusted]

Se rvice-produ( ing industn es

Goods-] roducing in dustries
Period

1979
1980
1981
1982

Total
nonagricultural
employment

11 anufacturin g
Total 2

Prtn
Construction

Total

Durable
goo s

Nondurable
goods

Total

Transportation
and
public
utilities

Wholesale
trade

trade

Gover nment

Finance,
insurance,
and real
estate

Services
Total

Federal

89,823
90,406
91,156
89,566
90,196
94,461
97,699

26,461
25,658
25,497
23,813
23,334
24,730
25,057

4,463
4,346
4,188
3,905
3,948
4,345
4,662

21,040
20,285
20,170
18,781
18,434
19,412
19,426

12,760
12,187
12,109
11,039
10,732
11,522
11,566

8,280
8,098
8,061
7,741
7,702
7,890
7,860

63,363
64,748
65,659
65,753
66,862
69,731
72,643

5,136
5,146
5,165
5,082
4,954
5,171
5,300

5,204
5,275
5,358
5,278
5,268
5,550
5,769

14,989
15,035
15,189
15,179
15,613
16,584
17,425

4,975
5,160
5,298
5,341
5,468
5,682
5,924

17,112
17,890
18,619
19,036
19,694
20,761
21,930

15,947
16,241
16,031
15,837
15,869
15,984
16,295

2,773
2,866
2,772
2,739
2,774
2,807
2,875

96,910
97,120
97,421
97,473
97,707
97,977
98,217
98,559
98,801
99,086

25,056
25,090
25,066
25,010
24,980
25,015
24,962
25,051
25,089
25,155

4,553
4,641
4,658
4,638
4,660
4,688
4,721
4,753
4,754
4,770

19,526
19,467
19,426
19,398
19,351
19,362
19,279
19,338
19,381
19,433

11,651
11,608
11,586
11,560
11,509
11,519
11,449
11,493
11,512
11,534

7,875
7,859
7,840
7,838
7,842
7,843
7,830
7,845
7,869
7,899

71,854
72,030
72,355
72,463
72,727
72,962
73,255
73,508
73,712
73,931

5,269
5,278
5,301
5,295
5,302
5,282
5,317
5,327
5,342
5,350

5,714
5,733
5,748
5,768
5,773
5,791
5,805
5,830
5,833
5,848

17,249
17,280
17,392
17,425
17,453
17,514
17,539
17,610
17,640
17,702

5,835
5,858
5,888
5,906
5,932
5,959
5,987
6,011
6,048
6,068

21,644
21,723
21,813
21,856
21,926
22,073
22,155
22,244
22,365
22,450

16,143
16,158
16,213
16,213
16,341
16,343
16,452
16,486
16,484
16,513

2,850
2,859
2,873
2,872
2,878
2,886
2,904
2,892
2,904
2,914

1986: Jan r... 99,496
Feb r... 99,649
Mar ".. 99,841

25,300
25,237
25,158

4,906
4,875
4,867

19,447
19,434
19,392

11,541
11,523
11,483

7,906
7,911
7,909

74,196
74,412
74,683

5,357
5,342
5,352

5,872
5,887
5,900

17,825
17,905
17,982

6,098
6,130
6,151

22,540
22,600
22,749

16,504
16,548
16,549

2,918
2,914
2,917

1983
1984
1985
1985:

Mar....
Apr
May ....
June...
July....
Aug....
Sept....
Oct
Nov....
Dec

1
Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers In nonagricultural establishments who
worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month.
Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces.
Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the
civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic
servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial dis-




putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample
of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments.
* Includes mining, not shown separately.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAIj INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

iVverage weekly

Average gi oss hourly
earnings

hours
Period

Manufa cturing

Total
private
nonagricultural '

Total

Total
private
nonagricultural *

Overtime

Manufacturing

9.43
9.48
9.49
9.51
9.53
9.56
9.56
9.58
9.61
9.66

164.4
164.8
164.9
165.7
165.4
165.7
166.7
166.4
167.1
168.4

94.5
94.4
94.3
94.5
94.2
94.2
94.6
94.1
94.1
94.4

3.2
2.9
3.1
3.2
2.7
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.1

-.7
-1.2
-.9
-.8
-1.0
.0
.4
.1
-.4
-.5

9.62
9.66
9.69

167.4
168.4
168.8

93.5
94.5
95.3

2.7
2.7
2.7

-1.0

8.67
8.71
8.74

41.0
40.6
40.7

1986: Jan r
Feb r
Mar'1

1977 dollars

138.9
148.5
155.4
160.7
r
165.6

3.6
3.4
3.5

35.2
34.9
35.0

1985: Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

Current
dollars

0.5
-3.1
4.0
-1.0
.9
1.6
-.1
.5

8.52
8.54
8.55
8.59
8.57
8.60
8.65
8.64
8.67
8.74

40.4
40.2
40.4
40.4
40.3
40.6
40.7
40.7
40.7
41.0

35.3
35.2
34.8
35.0
35.3
35.1

1977
dollars 3

Current
dollars

8.2
7.9
9.0
9.1
6.9
4.6
3.4
3.0

3.2
3.4
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.6

35.2
35.0
35.1
35.1
35.0
35.1
35.1
35.1
35.0
35.1

40.4
40.2

Percent chang e from a year
earlie r 4 5

=
1977 = 100

100.5
97.4
93.5
92.6
93.4
94.9
94.8
94.3

7.25
7.68
8.02
8.33
8.58

39.7
39.8
38.9
40.1
40.7
40.5

$5.69
6.16
6.66

35.8
35.7

nonagric iltural

Ind ex,

$6.17
6.70
7.27
7.99
8.49
8.83
9.18
9.52

3.6
3.3
2.8
2.8
2.3
3.0
3.4
3.3

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

Adjuste d hourly earnin rs index — total private
2

108.2
116.8
127.3

3
.7

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS
PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES
[For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted!
Percent change from
a year earlier,
total private n<magricultural 5

Avera 2;e gross weekly ea rmngs
Period

Current dollars

1978
1979
1980
1981

1982
1983
1984
1985
1985: Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan '
Feb r
Mar"

$203.70
219.91
235.10

$189.31
183.41
172.74

255.20
267.26
280.70
294.05
301.16
299.90
298.90
300.11
301.51
299.95
301.86
303.62
303.26
303.45
306.77
305.18
303.98
305.90

170.13
168.09
171.26
173.48
171.60
172.46
171.19
171.69
172.00
170.81
171.61
172.32
171.62
170.86
171.96
170.49
170.58
172.63

$249.27
269.34

$318.69
342.99

$130.20
138.62

288.62
318.00
330.26
354.08
373.63
385.56
380.97
381.10
383.40
384.20
384.06
388.14
389.09
389.91
391.13
396.06
394.42
392.20
394.38

367.78
399.26
426.82
442.97
456.92
462.20
465.58
465.88
460.60
454.96
459.85
459.75
466.17
464.65
459.27
458.56
469.32
444.31
448.96

147.38
158.03
163.85
171.05
176.40
177.31
177.31
176.42
178.20
177.61
176.72
176.42
177.60
176.71
177.00
177.56
177.00
176.69
177.28

4
5

Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14.
Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing.
Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index for urban waj
and clerical workers (on a 1977 — 100 base).

1977 dollars

Current dollars

1




Retail trade
Current dollars

1977 dollars 3

2

3

Construction

Manufacturing

Total i rivate
nonagnc altural 1

7.8
8.0
6.9
8.5
4.7
5.0
4.8
2.4

0.2
-3.1
5.8
-1.5
1.2
1.9
1.3
— 1.1

3.3
2.1
2.4
2.8
1.8
2.6
2.4
3.0
2.4
2.6

-.6
-2.0
1.5
-1.2
1.9
-.4
.3
.1
-1.0
-1.0

3.0
2.3
2.0

-.7
.0

<y

Monthlv changes based on indexes to two decimal places,
Based on seasonally unadjusted data.

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

15

PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR
Output pe r hour of
allpe rsons
Period
Business
sector

Outp u t 1

Nonfarm
business

Business
sector

100.8
99.2

105.8
107.8
106.6
108.9
105.5
110.1
119.0
122.1
105.1
105.0
106.6
109.3
111.3
113.4
117.1
119.2
119.6
120.1
121.2
121.9
122.6
122.8
123.9

Hours of all
2
perse ns

Nonfarm
business
sector

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Compens ation per

hou r 3

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Real com pensation
per hour 4
Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Unit lab or costs

Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

Implic t price
defla tor 5
Business
sector

Nonfarm
business
sector

132.6
142.7
154.5
157.0
159.9
166.2
156.2
156.7
156.6
156.0
156.6
158.4
158.4
158.7
160.6
162.3
163.8
165.2
166.3
169.3
169.1

119.8
132.9
144.0
156.0
158.0
161.4
167.7
157.6
158.6
158.3
157.2
157.1
159.1
159.6
160.1
162.0
163.9
165.3
166.8
167.8
170.9
170.5

107.3
117.0
127.6
139.8
148.1
152.8
158.7
163.1
149.3
150.2
151.1
152.0
153.1
154.9
156.6
158.0
159.4
160.8
161.6
162.7
163.5
164.6
165.4

107.0
116.5
127.8
140.3
149.2
154.1
159.6
164.8
150.3
151.4
152.3
153.6
154.2
156.1
157.1
158.8
160.5
161.9
163.0
164.5
165.5
166.3
167.4

7.7
11.1
10.8
7.7
8.2
1.6
1.9
3.9
7.2
1.5
-.3
-1.4
1.5
4.7
-•2
.8
4.9
4.5
3.7
3.5
2.5
7.5
-.6

7.7
11.2
11.0
8.3
8.4
1.2
2.2
3.9
7.6
2.6
-.9
-2.8
-.2
5.2
1.2
1.3
4.8
4.6
3.6
3.6
2.4
7.6
-1.0

7.3
9.1
9.0
9.6
5.9
3.2
3.9
2.8
5.6
2.4
2.3
2.6
2.8
4.9
4.4
3.7
3.6
3.5
2.1
2.8
2.0
2.7
2.0

7.0
8.9
9.7
9.7
6.3
3.3
3.6
3.3
5.7
3.0
2.4
3.3
1.7
5.1
2.4
4.4
4.4
3.6
2.7
3.7
2.6
1.8
2.8

19" 7 = 100; ( uarterly ( ata seasor ally adjus ted
1978

1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 r.
1984 r
1985 .
1982: m
IV
1983: I

n
m

IV
1984: I

n
m

IV
1985: I

n
mr
rv ....

1986: I"

100.8
99.6
99.2
100.7
100.3
103.2
105.2

105.3
100.3
101.0
102.3
103.5
103.5
103.6
104.9
105.5
105.3
105.0
105.3
105.5
105.9
104.9
105.5

98.8
99.8
99.2
102.6
104.1
103.9
99.1
99.7
101.3
102.8
103.3
103.0
104.0
104.5
104.2
103.8
104.1
104.2
104.3
103.2
104.1

105.9
107.9

106.7
108.5
104.9
110.3
118.9
122.0
104.5
104.2
106.2
109.3
111.8
113.8
117.1
119.2
119.5
120.0
121.1
121.8
122.6
122.7
123.9

104.9
108.3
107.5
108.2
105.2
106.8
113.1
115.9
104.8
103.9
104.2
105.6
107.5
109.5
111.6
113.0
113.6
114.4
115.1
115.6
115.8
117.1
117.5

105.1
108.7
108.0
108.7
105.8

107.5
114.2
117.5
105.5
104.5
104.8
106.3
108.2
110.5
112.6
114.0
114.7
115.6
116.3
116.9
117.5
118.9
119.1

108.5
119.1
131.5
143.7
154.9
161.9
168.2
175.0
156.6
158.3
160.1
161.5
162.1
164.1
166.1
167.5
169.1
170.4
172.4
174.3
176.1
177.6
178.3

108.6
118.9
131.3
143.6
154.8
162.1
168.0
174.2
156.3
158.2
160.4
161.6
162.3
164.0
165.9
167.4
168.8
170.1
172.1
173.7
175.0
176.4
177.4

100.8
99.4
96.7
95.7
97.3
98.5
98.2
98.6
97.2
97.9
99.0
98.7
98.1
98.3
98.3
98.2
98.2
98.1
98.5
98.5
98.9
98.7
98.8

100.9
99.2
96.6
95.7
97.2
98.6
98.0
98.1
97.0
97.8
99.1
98.8
98.2
98.2
98.1
98.1
98.0
97.9
98.3
98.2
98.3
98.0
98.3

107.7
119.6

107.7

Pe rcent chan je; quarte rly data at seasonal] y adjusted annual rates

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982 r
1983 r.
1984 .
1985 '.
1982: m
IV
1983: I

n
m '....

IV '....
1984: I

n
m

IV
1985: I

n
m

IV '....
1986: I"

0.8
-1.2
-.3
1.5
— .4
2.9
2.0
.1
.3
3.0
5.1
4.9
.0
.4
5.1
2.5
-.8
-1.3
1.0
.8
1.6
-3.9
2.3

1

0.8
-1.6
-.4
1.0
-.6
3.4
1.5
-.3
.0
2.4
6.5
6.1
2.0
-1.1
3.6
2.2
-1.3
-1.3
1.0
.2
.4
-4.1
3.4

5.8
1.9
-1.1
2.1
3.1
4.4
8.1
2.6
-3.1
-.4
6.3
10.5
7.4
7.9
13.6
7.5
1.3
1.7
3.6
2.3
2.5
.4
3.8

5.9
1.8
-1.1
1.7
-3.3
5.1
7.9
2.6
-3.4
-1.2
7.6
12.2
9.6
7.3
12.1
7.2
1.2
1.8
3.6
2.3
2.6
.6
4.0

4.9
3.2
-.8
.7
2.7
1.5
6.0
2.5
-3.4
-3.3
1.1
5.3
7.4
7.5
8.1
4.9
2.1
3.1
2.5
1.5
.9
4.5
1.4

5.1
3.5
-.7
.7
-2.7
1.6
6.3
2.9
-3.4
-3.5
1.1
5.8
7.5
8.6
8.2
4.9
2.5
3.1
2.6
2.1
2.1
4.8
.6

Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1982 dollars.
2
Hours of all persona engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family
workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data.
3
Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private
benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed.

16



8.5
9.7
10.5
9.2
7.8
4.5
3.9
4.0
7.5
4.5
4.7
3.4
1.5
5.1
4.9
3.3
4.1
3.1
4.8
4.4
4.2
3.4
1.7
4

8.6
9.5
10.5
9.4
7.7
4.7
3.7
3.7
7.5
5.0
5.6
3.1
1.8
4.0
4.9
3.6
3.4
3.2
4.7
3.8
2.8
3.2
2.4

0.8
-1.4
-2.7
1.0
1.6
1.3
-.3
.4
.1
2.9
4.4
-.9
-2.6
.8
-.2
-.3
.2
-.6
1.5
.4
1.6
-.9
.2

0.9
1.6
-2.7
-.9
1.5
1.5
-.6
.1
.2
3.4
5.3
-1.1
-2.3
-.2
-.2
.0
— .4
-.4
1.4
-.2
.3
-1.0

.9

Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product.
NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector.
Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may
differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
5

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Industrial production fell 0.5 percent in March, following a decline of 0.7 percent in February. The index for March
was 0.9 percent above its year-earlier level.

INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE)
140
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE)
MU
200 _ FINAL P RODUCTS

120
180

r

)EFENSE ANC)
SPACE
EQUIPMENT

160

100

\.

Illllllllll Illllllllll lllllllllll Illllllllll

140

140 — MANUFACTURING• PRODUCT ION

—

DUR ABLE

120

''/*

"

BUSINESS
EQUIPMENT
-*°^*~*v~l

^^

' \

CONSUMER
GOODS

-<X""

N(DNDURABLE

^-' — fs/

100

,^---"
^V-

\

X"

r^-'

x^

/

120

, _ «M-—M--fl
^tl™^1**

\^^

^.W

Illllllllll

Illllllllll Illllllllll Hll|llllll Illllllllll

PERCENT*

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 111 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Illllllllll Illllllllll „
1

90

_MANUF/\CTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATIO N RATE _

80

,-*

«

• - •^

70

100

60 Illllllllll I l l l l l l l l l l Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll
1982

1982

1986

1983

1984

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

1985

1986

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Period
Index,
1977 = 100

1977 proportion

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985: Mar
Apr
May
June
July

Aug
Sept

Oct
Nov
Dee r

1986: Jan r
Feb r

Mar"
1

Output as percent of capacity.




100.0
106.5
110.7
108.6
111.0
103.1
109.2
121.8
124.5
124.0
124.1
124.1
124.3
124.1
125.2
125.1
124.4
125.4
126.4
126.6
125.7
125.1

Capacity itilization
rate, pe rcent *

Industry prod uction indexes , 1977 = 100

To tal
Indus trial
produ ction

Manufacturing

Percent
change
from year
earlier

6.5
3.9
-1.9
2.2
-7.1
5.9
11.5
2.2
3.3
2.8
2.3
1.6
.7
1.3
1.5
1.4
1.6
2.5
2.4
1.6
.9

Mining
Total

84.21
107.1
111.5
108.2
110.5
102.2
110.2
123.9
127.1
126.3
126.6
126.6
126.7
126.9
128.2
127.7
127.2
128.4
129.1
129.9
128.9
128.3

Durable

49.10
108.2
113.9
109.1
111.1
99.9
107.7
124.8
128.2
128.0
128.2
127.9
127.6
127.9
129.4
128.3
127.7
129.2
129.9
130.6
129.0
127.8

Utilities

Nondurable

35.11
105.5
108.2
107.0
109.7
105.5
113.7
122.5
125.6
123.9
124.3
124.7
125.5
125.6
126.6
126.9
126.4
127.3
128.0
129.0
128.7
128.9

9.83
103.6
106.4
112.4
117.5
109.3
102.9
110.9
109.0
110.5
109.6
109.8
110.6
108.7
108.3
108.4
108.4
106.9
107.4
107.4
104.2
103.0

5.96
103.1
105.9
107.3
107.1
104.8
105.2
110.9
113.4
113.9
113.6
113.7
113.4
110.7
110.3
113.2
112.4
112.2
116.5
113.3
115.3
115.1

Manufacturing

Industrial
materials

84.2
84.6
79.3
78.3

86.3
87.1

70.3
74.0
80.8
80.3
80.5
80.5
80.3
80.1
80.1
80.7
80.1
79.6
80.2
80.4
80.7
79.9
79.3

81.1
81.1
71.7
75.3
82.3
80.2
81.4
80.9
80.1
80.1
79.5
79.9
79.5
79.3
79.2
80.1
80.0
79.6
79.2

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

17

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND
SELECTED MANUFACTURES
[1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Produ ts

Mate rials

^inal produc s

Intern lediate pro [ucts
Equipment

C ansumer go ods

Period
Total

Durable
goods

Total

Nondurable goods

Total '

Business

Defense
and
space
equipment

Total

Construction
supplies

Busi-

Total

Energy

supplies

1977 proportion
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

44.77
106.9
111.0
112.2
115.2
109.5
114.7
127.8
132.0

25.52
104.3
103.9
102.7
104.1
101.4
109.3
118.2
120.7

6.89
103.7
99.9
88.4
89.7
82.9
98.5
112.6
112.9

18.63
104.5
105.4
108.1
109.3
108.3
113.3
120.2
123.6

19.25
110.3
120.4
124.7
129.9
120.2
121.7
140.5
147.0

14.34
112.2
124.7
125.1
127.6
113.6
115.4
134.9
141.2

3.67
101.2
105.6
115.4
119.8
133.0
143.1
157.9
173.6

12.94
106.9
110.8
106.9
107.3
101.7
111.2
124.9
130.6

5.95
106.9
108.7
100.6
98.6
88.3
100.6
114.0
118.9

6.99
106.9
112.7
112.3
114.7
113.1
120.3
134.2
' 140.5

42.28
105.9
110.3
105.3
107.7
96.7
102.8
114.6
114.7

11.69
101.1
104.1
105.5
104.7
101.2
98.4
104.0
104.4

1985:

Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec r

130.8
131.3
131.7
131.6
131.8
133.3
133.3
131.9
133.7
134.4

119.8
119.5
120.0
120.4
120.1
121.5
121.8
120.8
122.7
124.2

113.5
111.5
111.8
112.0
111.3
114.0
112.9
111.4
115.5
116.8

122.1
122.5
123.1
123.5
123.4
124.2
125.1
124.3
125.4
127.0

145.4
146.9
147.1
146.6
147.3
149.0
148.6
146.6
148.3
147.9

140.2
142.0
141.9
140.7
141.3
143.0
142.2
139.6
141.7
141.4

169.0
170.1
171.2
173.4
173.9
175.5
177.5
178.7
180.7
180.7

128.6
129.3
130.3
131.4
130.7
132.0
132.3
131.5
132.7
132.9

116.9
117.4
118.1
119.2
119.4
121.5
121.3
120.0
120.9
120.7

138.6
139.4
140.7
141.7
140.3
140.9
141.7
141.2
142.7
143.3

115.5
115.0
114.2
114.3
113.8
114.5
114.2
114.2
114.3
115.9

106.2
105.3
105.3
105.1
103.5
102.7
103.4
104.2
102.5
105.8

1986:

Jan '.
Feb r .
Mar' 1

134.5
133.1
131.9

123.8
123.5
122.7

116.6
116.4
113.0

126.4
126.2
126.3

148.7
145.7
144.2

143.3
141.5
140.2

179.3
176.3
177.4

134.4
133.7
134.4

123.9
122.8
123.5

143.3
143.0

115.9
115.4
115.0

103.2
103.8
103.4

1

Includes rigs and prefabs, not shown separately.

[1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]
No ndurable Inanufactui es

Durable me nufactures
Transp >rtation
equipment

Primary metals

Lumber
and
products

Apparel
products

Printing and
publishing

Chemicals
and
products

5.25
104.6
95.9
71.1
71.6
66.8
85.8
105.6
112.8

2. 30
1024
102.0
92.9
90.1
82.8
100.2
109.1
112.9

2.79
103.1
98.3
97.3
96.1
87.3
95.3
102.8
'101.8

4.54
107.8
112.7
115.1
118.6
120.2
129.8
147.9
' 155.2

8.05
106.8
111.4
106.4
112.6
103.8
114.0
121.7
127.1

7.96
104.3
106.7
111.4
113.7
114.9
120.4
127.1
131.0

120.8
120.7
120.9
121.8
123.7
126.8
126.2
124.5
126.5
126.8

111.3
110.9
110.5
110.5
112.8
116.8
115.3
111.7
114.5
115.4

109.5
110.9
112.2
113.5
113.0
114.8
115.9
116.5
115.6
116.5

101.3
100.2
100.3
99.2
100.6
100.4
101.8
102.6
103.9
105.0

152.6
154.2
155.4
156.7
154.3
156.3
156.2
157.0
159.0
158.4

126.5
125.8
126.7
126.4
126.4
128.2
129.0
127.9
128.0
128.5

128.5
130.8
131.4
131.8
132.2
132.6
132.5
130.7
131.4
132.6

128.9
127.8
122.9

117.9
117.9
109.3

119.7

105.8
104.0

158.7
158.2
158.7

130.6
131.7

133.2
133.0

Iron and
steel

Fabricated
metal
products

Nonelectrical
machinery

5.3,9
107.0
108.5
90.4
95.0
65.8
73.0
82.4
80.6

3.49
107.5
108.0
86.3
92.5
57.5
66.1
73.5
r
70.6

6.46
105.7
109.4
101.8
101.6
86.6
89.1
102.8
107.9

9.54
111.7
122.6
123.3
129.8
115.6
118.3
142.0
146.4

7.15
112.9
125.7
130.3
134.1
128.4
143.8
172.4
169.3

9.13
106.3
108.3
96.9
95.1
87.6
99.2
113.6
123.2

Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Noy
Dec r .

81.8
81.4
76.4
78.3
79.0
82.0
80.3
83.1
83.6
81.7

73.2
71.9
65.4
67.6
68.7
71.6
69.7
74.4
75.3
72.0

108.6
109.1
108.3
107.4
107.3
107.8
107.5
108.4
107.9
108.8

146.5
148.9
149.1
145.6
147.5
149.2
146.5
143.0
145.6
146.0

173.1
168.9
169.3
169.5
165.7
166.1
165.1
165.1
168.9
171.9

1986: Jan r
Feb r
Mar"

84.7
82.8
79.9

75.5
72.6

109.3
108.3
107.7

146.2
145.0
145.0

168.3
165.0
165.0

Period
Total

1977 proportion
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985:

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

18



Electrical
machinery

Total

Motor
vehicles
and
parts

Foods

NEW CONSTRUCTION
[Monthly data seasonally adjusted]
Constructio n contracts 2

Private
Period

Total new
construction
expenditures

Eesi lential
Total

Commercial
and industrial

New housing
units

Total '

Other

Federal,
State, and
local

Total value
index
(1977=100)

Commercial
and industrial
floor space
(millions of
square feet)

I illions of dollars

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 *

215.9
241.9
238.0
246.7
236.9
268.7
313.0
342.4

170.0
193.1
183.0
193.3
186.1
218.0
257.8
280.0

103.8
110.5
94.5
94.1
80.6
121.3
145.1
148.2

86.2
90.1
70.4
70.2
57.7
95.7
114.6
113.4

29.6
39.9
43.8

51.3
54.6
48.7
61.9
75.8

36.7
42.7
44.7
47.9
50.9
48.1
50.9
56.0

45.9
48.8
55.0
53.3
50.8
50.7
55.2
62.3

114.0
121.0
108.0
112.0
111.0
138.0
150.0

161.0

Annual rates

1985:

1986:

Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct r
Nov r
Dec r.
Jan r
Feb "
Mar"

334.3
333.7
341.9
339.9
343.8
344.2
343.2
346.1
344.5
343.8
351.7

276.5
274.6
282.0
276.4
278.9
279.5
279.4
282.5
282.1
281.3
286.9

356.1
360.5

288.0
293.6

146.0
146.2
146.5
142.3
147.2
148.7
146.9
148.9
150.9
149.7
150.7
152.6
155.8

Annual rates

74.7
74.0
78.5
76.5
73.5
73.3
75.0
76.8
76.4
77.4
81.9
80.5
82.4

110.3
110.8
112.6
112.0
112.2
112.8
113.4
113.8
115.6
115.2
116.6
119.1
122.3

1
Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separateiy.
2
F. W. Dodge series.

977

1,059
904
919
690
756
955
1,064

55.7
54.4
56.9
57.7
58.3
57.5
57.5
56.8
54.9
54.2
54.4
54.9
55.4

57.8
59.1
59.9
63.5
64.9
64.7
63.9
63.6
62.4
62.6
64.8
68.1
66.9

152
167
163
161
154
164
164
167
168
162
162
146
162
149

990
1,049
1,104
1,008
836
1,103
1,097
1,118
1,104
1,111
951
848
941
840

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company, F. W. Dodge Division.

NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES
[Thousands of units or homes, except as noted]
New priv ate homes

New private housing units
Units started, by type of structun

Period
Total
2,020.3
1,745.1
1,292.2
1,084.2
1,062.2
1,703.0
1,749.5
1,741.8

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

1 unit
1,433.3
1,194.1
852.2
705.4
662.6
1,067.6
1,084.2
1,072.4

2-4 units
125.0
122.0
109.5
91.1
80.0
113.5
121.4
93.4

5 or more units
462.0
429.0
330.5
287.7
319.6
522.0
544.0
576.1

Units
authorized
1,800.5
1,551.8
1,190.6
985.5
1,000.5
1,605.2
1,681.8
1,740.8

Units
completed

Homes sold

Homes for
sale at end of
period 1

1,867.5
1,870.8
1,501.6
1,265.7
1,005.5
1,390.3
1,652.2
T
1,703.3

817
709
545
436
412
623
639
r
688

1,771
1,691
1,659
1,635
1,758
1,722
1,720
1,778
1,541
1,721
r
1,762
1,774
1,725

676
698
648
684
710
745
708
681
637
r
722
r
729

359
356
355
355
354
351
348
350
353
r
353
r
349

736
709
903

353
356
339

3

414

398
336
272
251
300
356
r
349

Vacancy rate
for rental
housing units
(percent) 2
5.0
5.4
5.4
5.0
5.3
5.7

5.9
6.5

Seasonal ly adjusted annu al rates

1985:

1986:

Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan r
Feb T
Mar"

1
2

1,632
1,849
1,851
1,684
1,693
1,673
1,737
1,653
1,784
1,654
1,882
2,034
1,997
1,949

1,111
1,147
1,129
1,041
1,036
1,068
1,071
1,006
1,118
1,006
1,098
1,335
1,204
1,212

96
103
106
105
95
86
97
85
80
76
83
107
115
88

425
599
616
538
562
519
569
562
586
572
701
592
678
649

Seasonally adjusted.
Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable
with earlier data.
3
New series beginning March 1979.




1,624
1,741
1,704
1,778
1,712
1,694
1,784
1,808
1,688
1,661
1,873
1,907
1,803
1,856

6.3
6.2
6.8
6.7

6.9

NOTE. — Beginning 1984, units authorized are for 17,000 permit-issuing places and for 1978-83
data are for 16,000 places.
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

19

BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade
Manufacturing and trade sales fell 1.1 percent in February and inventories were about unchanged. According to
advance data, retail sales fell 0.8 percent in March following a rise of 0.1 percent in February.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
650

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE)
200
190 —
—

550

^.
=

500

=^
MANUF/iCTURING A ND
TRADE INVENTORY S

450

170 —
160
150

*

y—•«•->...

'

RETAI

A

—

110 —
100

^~

300

250

r~n

120

AN D TRADE SA LES

--

—

^—
A ^
\
s^ L INVENTOR ES

130

--"V"~

350

^-

—

,'
,"' M/kNUFACTUR NG

—

^-•'"'

\
RETAIL SA LES
—

90 "•T^x*"**^

—

—

70 Illllllllll l|lllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll

RATIO*
1.80
1.60

—

150

—

1.40

_ INVEN1FORY-SALEJ5 RATIO

—

v^n

—

*

RE TAIL
\

V*

Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll
1984

1983

1982

1985

1.00

Illllllllll

Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll
1983

1982

1986

1984

1985

•SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Manufact oring and
tra< e '
Sales

2

Inventories 3

^

^T"

MAt•JUFACTURIh G
tUMD TRADE

1.20

iiiiiliiin

..
..

1986

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Wholesale

Inventory-s ales ratio 4

He tail
Sales *•

Sales 2

InventoTotal

Durable
goods
stores

Inventories

Nondurable goods
stores

Total

3

Durable
goods
stores

Nondurable goods
stores

Manufacturing
and

Retail

Millions of dollars, seasonally iidjusted
r

1978
1979 r
1980 T
1981 r
1982 T
1983 r
1984 '
1985 T

260,805

399,608
451,460
494,105
528,105
509,555
520,328
575,098
583,148

66,669
79,472
93,704
102,013
96,290
100,424
113,404
114,494

86,405
99,262
113,478
118,259
118,149
120,265
131,544
135,940

67,231
74,926
79,963
86,777
89,339
97,858
107,755
114,495

23,368
25,529
24,914
27,089
28,059
33,041
38,817
42,851

43,863
49,397
55,049
59,688
61,279
64,817
68,939
71,645

102,694
111,098
116,346
127,201
126,497
139,381
157,845
165,324

50,136
54,108
55,117
60,327
58,952
66,928
77,142
82,875

52,558
56,990
61,229
66,874
67,545
72,453
80,703
82,449

1.44

1.43

298,334
328,058
356,919
344,656
368,724
410,737
424,091

1.43
1.45
1.44
1.51
1.38
1.34
1.37

1.44
1.42
1.41
1.41
1.34
1.39
1.40

1985: Peb r
Mar r.
Apr r.
May r
June r
July '
Aug r
Sept r.
Oct rr

418,218
420,003
424,616
425,582
418,543
421,524
428,015
427,691
425,689
431,326
432,797

578,541
579,123
579,256
578,037
580,137
580,318
578,635
578,742
581,516
582,381
583,148

114,022
113,759
116,588
116,712
111,073
113,301
115,146
114,344
113,675
115,762
116,852

132,917
133,267
133,203
133,667
134,931
134,949
134,869
134,410
134,810
134,831
135,940

111,935
111,941
114,519
114,232
113,599
114,430
116,276
119,118
114,785
115,433
116,861

41,341
41,400
42,980
42,787
42,444
42,768
44,209
46,748
42,355
42,631
43,882

70,594
70,541
71,539
71,445
71,155
71,662
72,067
72,370
72,430
72,802
72,979

159,478
159,685
160,004
159,470
159,528
160,333
159,078
160,302
164,262
165,557
165,324

78,275
79,033
79,071
78,679
79,143
79,205
78,042
78,425
81,668
83,056
82,875

81,203
80,652
80,933
80,791
80,385
81,128
81,036
81,877
82,594
82,501
82,449

1.38
1.38
1.36
1.36
1.39
1.38
1.35
1.35
1.37
1.35
1.35

1.42
1.43
1.40
1.40
1.40
1.40
1.37
1.35
1.43
1.43
1.41

431,957
427,261

584,968
584,853

115,648
113,235

136,624
136,551

73,162
73,574
73,461

167,987
169,066

84,755
85,508

83,232
83,558

1.35
1.37

1.43
1.44

Nov

Dec r
1986: Jan r
Febp
Mar"
1

r

117,349
117,454
116,556

See page 21 for manufacturing.
Monthly average for year and total for month.
Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted.
4
For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly
data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month.
2

44,187
43,880
43,095

r

r

Note.—Wholesale trade data revised beginning 1976; therefore, total manufacturing and tra<
data revised beginning 1976.

3

20



Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
In February, manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and new orders fell, and unfilled orders rose. In March,
according to advance data, durable goods shipments and new orders fell.
BILLK3NS OF DOL LARS* (RATIC) SCALE)

BULK )NS OF DOL ARS* (RATIC) SCALE)
200j — SHIPME NTS
160 •

""«=ar— ••*

360 — INVEN1
FORIES
320
280
•
,—
24ft

~^~ 1

n
1
5
- TOTAL -

DURABLE GOC)DS

120

?

" \"~

•«
—

TOTAL

200

•-..—._.

3
,*—•-*"'*'*
~
d**^""^
80 '"""**-»^ -*"'
NONC URABLE GO DOS
—f

r~r^

160

-7 .....

D JRABLE GOC)DS

120

60
80

NOI- DURABLE GCDODS

Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll

40

60
BILLIC3NS OF DOL LARS* (RATIC) SCALE)
240

_ N E W O ?DERS

200

i _i

160 H

40

.^.«

Illllllllll

DU RABLE GOOC)S

INVEN1"ORY-SHIPA^ENTS RAT O
2.0

X>~~'
«

—r—\ —

,

*

80 ~^^

1.8
^""^^^J*^

NOhJDURABLE G OODS

•x--'

llllllll|l| Illllllllll lllllllllH

RATI O*
2.2

TOTAL"

120

iiiiiliiiu

1.6

•x

60

^^v

1.4 —

lllllilllll Illllllllll

40

1982

Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll

1983

1984

1.2

||lll||||ll

1986

1985

•^riiiiiiiiiM
~~

_-ie~'*~^JL

>
f

Illllllllll

1982

Illllllllll

1983

iimliini

1984

SEASONALLY ADJ STED
s OURCE: DEPARTM NT OF COMMERC

1985

COUNCIL OF ECCJNOMIC ADVISERS

Manufa cturers' shiprnents 1

Manufa< turers'

M anufacturers new orders i

inven tones 2

Durable goods
Period

Durable
goods

1986

Durable
goods

Nondurable goods

Nondurable goods

Total

Capital
goods
industries,
nondefense

Nondurable goods

Manufacturers'
unfilled
orders 3

Manufacturers'
inventory —
shipments
ratio 4

M.Jlions of do lars, seasoirally adjust)3d
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982

67,848
76,060
77,550
83,872
76,693
84,951
98,502
103,649

59,057
67,876
76,841
84,257
82,334
85,491
91,076
91,452

210,509
241,100
264,281
282,645
264,909
260,682
285,709
281,884

137,891
160,533
174,620
186,347
175,103
171,629
191,109
189,164

72,618
80,567
89,661
96,298
89,806
89,053
94,600
92,720

131,546
147,403
156,161
167,752
157,255
173,259
191,634
195,803

72,339
79,451
79,360
83,553
74,996
87,631
100,611
104,305

19,458
23,231
23,259
24,050
20,681
22,764
27,017
27,215

59,207
67,953
76,801
84,199
82,260
85,627
91,024
91,499

259,770
302,145
323,393
319,094
296,918
330,924
355,640
363,809

1.57
1.57
1.66
1.64

1983
1984
1985

126,905
143,936
154,391
168,129
159,027
170,441
189,578
195,102

1985: Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dee

192,261
194,303
193,509
194,638
193,871
193,793
196,593
194,229
197,229
200,131
199,084

101,724
102,116
102,068
102,718
102,657
102,478
105,311
103,656
106,479
107,007
105,777

90,537
92,187
91,441
91,920
91,214
91,315
91,282
90,573
90,750
93,124
93,307

286,146
286,171
286,049
284,900
285,678
285,036
284,688
284,030
282,444
281,993
281,884

192,030
192,355
192,475
191,546
192,239
192,163
192,037
191,930
190,508
190,284
189,164

94,116
93,816
93,574
93,354
93,439
92,873
92,651
92,100
91,936
91,709
92,720

193,057
191,532
191,081
195,019
198,261
195,793
198,782
197,332
195,381
196,865
201,213

102,467
99,544
99,839
102,971
106,780
104,370
107,661
106,641
104,495
103,796
107,531

29,493
27,206
25,461
25,594
27,984
26,685
27,554
29,240
27,092
25,788
30,566

90,590
91,988
91,242
92,048
91,481
91,423
91,121
90,691
90,886
93,069
93,682

359,926
357,151
354,731
355,112
359,502
361,502
363,691
366,794
364,946
361,680
363,809

1.49
1.47
1.48
1.46
1.47
1.47
1.45
1.46
1.43
1.41
1.42

1986:

198,960
196,572

105,874
105,843
103,656

93,086
90,729

280,357
279,236

188,518
187,644

91,839
91,592

201,399
198,833

24,553
28,911
27,020

92,940
91,014

366,248
368,509

1.41
1.42

1
2
3

Jan
Feb"
Mar"

r

Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales.
Book value, end of period.
End of period.




r

108,459
107,819
105,073

r

1.73
1.52
1.45
1.46

4
For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for
monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month.

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

21

PRICES
PRODUCER PRICES
In March, the producer price index for all finished goods fell 1.1 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished
consumer foods rose 0.3 percent, while prices of other finished consumer goods fell 2.3 percent. Prices of capital
equipment rose 0.3 percent.
INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)

INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE)

340

340

sEASONALLY ADJUSTE )
FINISHED GOODS

320

320

cc)NSUMER

GOC)DS
FY CLUDING FOO n<;

300
FAL FINISHED
T01
GOODS
^ •—

280

. -^*f
/

/" V~*"^*x L^fU* ^

260

s'/S

"

X>>

^

\.

/

"' \

'%' CONSUMER F OODS

»'*

''' x\~-

280
_

/ s"^~'s'
>'/

300

\

"

^
^
5

f

4

— '"""1

,g»iHS£££S

*

260

r—f

'

CAPITAL EQL IPMENT

•ft?

240
*

240

£c?

220

220

200

180

/"'''-;'//
i M"fi 1 1 1 1 11
1978

200

llillllllll

liinli mi

1979

1980

llillllllll llillllllll llillllllll llillllllll llillllllll llillllllll
1983

1982

1981

1985

1984

180

1986

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

[1967 — 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted]

Fin shed goods

Internicdiate ma terials

P nished go ids excluding consumer foo Is
Period

Total
finished
goods

Consumer
foods

Consumer gc ods

Total
Total

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

1984
1985"
1985: Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov r
Dec
1986: Jan
Feb
Mar
1

195.9
217.7
247.0
269.8
280.7
285.2
291.1
293.8
292.0
293.5
294.2
293.6
294.3
293.4
291.8
294.4
296.4
298.3
296.3
291.7
288.6

207.2
226.2
239.5
253.6
259.3

261.8
273.3
271.2
272.4
270.8
268.6
268.4
270.9
269.0
266.4
270.8
273.7
275.9
274.8
270.5
271.2

190.7
213.3
247.8
273.3
285.8
290.8
294.8
299.1
296.3
298.9
300.6
299.7
299.8
299.3
298.0
300.1
301.7
303.4
301.2
296.5
292.1

Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds.

22



186.7
211.5
250.8
276.5
287.8
291.4
294.1
297.4
294.0
297.5
299.7
298.4
298.4
297.5
296.3
298.0
300.0
302.3
299.2
292.4
285.8

Durable

166.9
183.2
206.2
218.6
226.7
233.1
236.8
241.5
240.4
240.9
241.4
242.1
242.1
242.3
239.8
243.0
243.8
243.7
242.4
242.6
243.9

Nondurable
200.0
231.3
283.9
319.6

333.6
335.3
337.3
339.4
334.1
340.1
343.8
340.7
340.7
339.0
338.9
339.3
342.3
346.5
342.0
330.0
317.5

Cr jde mater als

Foods
and
feeds *

Foodstuffs
and
feedstuffs

Total

Capital
equipment

finished
consumer
goods

199.2
216.5
239.8
264.3
279.4
287.2
294.0

194.9
217.9
248.9
271.3
281.0
284.6
290.3

300.5
299.3
299.6
300.0
300.4
300.7
301.3
299.7
302.7
303.4
303.6
303.3
303.5
304.3

291.9
289.9
291.9
292.6
291.6
292.5
291.2
289.6
292.1
294.5
296.7
294.3
288.3
284.1

Total

215.6
242.2
280.3
306.0
310.4

312.3
320.0
318.7
318.6
319.3
320.0
318.5
317.8
317.4
317.2
317.5
318.6
319.7
318.3
313.8
310.0

203.1
226.1
252.6
250.3
239.4
247.9
253.1
232.7

238.4
235.4
231.5
230.7
229.7
226.5
224.9
229.4
232.3
232.9
232.6
229.2
228.8

Other

Total

216.5
244.4
282.3
310.1
315.7
317.1

234.4
274.3
304.6
329.0
319.5
323.6
330.8
306.2
311.0
307.3
305.6
303.8
303.0
296.1
293.1
302.2
308.0
307.4
303.2
288.1
279.9

325.0
325.0
324.5
325.4
326.5
325.0
324.3
324.1
323.9
324.0
325.0
326.1
324.6
320.0
316.0

jartment of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

216.2
247.9
259.2
257.4

247.8
252.2
259.5
235.0
241.4
235.1
231.6
230.6
229.5
221.6
217.7
231.0
240.8
239.7
233.5
225.1
222.9

Other

272.3

330.0
401.0
482.3
473.9
477.4
484.5
459.7
461.0
462.9
464.9
461.2
461.1
456.1
454.9
455.4
453.1
453.7
453.4
424.1
403.3

CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
In March, the consumer price index for all urban consumers fell 0.4 percent, seasonally adjusted (it fell 0.5 percent
not seasonally adjusted). The index was 2.3 percent above its year-earlier level.
INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE)

INDEX, 1967 =100 (RATIO SCALE)

220

200

180

1986
SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW
SOURCE^ DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

COUNCiL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[1967=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]

Tr ansportati on

Hou sing
She Her
All
items

1

Total '

Renters'
1982=100)

Homeowners'
costs (Dec.

1

wo.o
195.4
217.4
246.8
272.4
289.1
298.4
311.1
322.2
318.8
320.1
321.3
322.3
322.8
323.5
324.5
325.5
326.6
327.4
328.4
327.5
326.0




utilities

upkeep

Total '

Newcars

Motor
fuel

Medical
care

Ener-

gy 2

All items
less
food,
energy,

and
shelter

NSA

18.5
211.4
234.5
254.6
274.6
285.7
291.7
302.9
309.8
308.6
308.7
308.4
309.1
309.2
309.6
310.7
311.1
313.2
315.2
315.9
313.8
314.1

37,9
202.8
227.6
263.3
293.5
314.7
323.1
336.5
349.9
345.3
346.5
348.4
349.4
350.3
351.7
352.2
353.3
355.2
356.2
357.1
356.8
357.5

22.3
210.4
239.7
281.7
314.7
337.0
344.8
361.7
382.0
374.7
376.4
379.7
381.1
383.1
385.3
386.1
387.9
390.5
391.9
393.3
394.8
397.3

7.3

103.0
108.6
115.4
113.2
113.7
114.7
115.3
115.8
116.3
116.7
117.5
118.2
118.5
118.8
119.2
119.8

14.4

102.5
107.3
113.1
111.0
111.5
112.6
112.9
113.6
114.3
114.5
114.9
115.7
116.2
116.6
117.0
118.0

Includes items not shown separately.
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant,
etc. also included through 1982.
3
Relative importance, December 1985.
2

repairs

Appar-

1982 = 100)

NSA

Rel. imp.3
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985: Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan
Feb
Mar

and

Fuel
and
other

Maintenance

0.5
233.0
256.4
285.7
314.4
334.1
346.3
359.2
368.9
370.0
368.0
366.2
367.6
367.8
370.6
368.7
368.5
372.7
373.7
379.1
379.6
367.5

8.1
216.0
239.3
278.6
319.2
350.8
370.3
387.3
393.6
391.2
392.8
392.8
394.7
394.2
393.6
394.4
393.7
395.4
396.5
397.2
392.4
388.4

5.0

159.6
166.6
178.4
186.9
191.8
196.5
200.2
206.0
205.1
205.4
205.3
205.9
205.6
205.9
206.8
207.7
208.4
208.3
207.7
206.6
206.3

21.4
185.5
212.0
249.7
280.0
291.5
298.4
311.7
319.9
319.0
320.9
320.2
320.2
320.3
319.8
319.3
320.5
322.6
323.9
325.5
320.9
311.8

3.4
153.8
166.0
179.3
190.2
197.6
202.6
208.5
215.2
213.7
214.1
214.5
215.0
215.2
215.7
216.2
217.0
217.7
218.4
218.6
219.5
219.9

5.5

6.5

11.3

196.3
265.6
369.1
410.9
389.4
376.4
370.7
373.8
367.9
374.3
377.7
378.8
379.1
377.4
375.2
374.3
377.4
379.4
380.1
357.2
314.8

219.4
239.7
265.9
294.5
328.7
357.3
379.5
403.1
395.4
397.5
399.8
402.6
404.3
406.6
409.0
410.9
413.0
415.7
417.5
420.4
424.5

220.4
275.9
361.1
410.0
416.1
419.3
423.6
426.5
423.2
428.0
429.7
430.3
429.4
427.6
426.8
425.8
428.4
430.3
430.8
414.3
387.5

48.0
179.1
191.5
208.3
228.1
245.6
258.4
271.2
281.6
279.6
280.3
280.2
280.9
281.4
282.1
282.6
284.1
285.4
286.2
287.5
288.0
288.6

NOTE.—Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs
and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]
Cha nge from pr eceding peru d

Change from 3 month s earlier, aim ial rate

Change from 6 mont] s earlier, aim ual rate

Consum r goods

Consum r goods

Consum r goods
Period

Total
finished

goods

Capitol
equipment

Excluding foods

Foods

Total
finished

goods

Capital
equipment

Excluding
foods

Foods

Total
finished

Capital
equipment

Excluding
foods

Foods

goods

Change
from
year
earlier,
total
finished

goods
NSA

Change, Dec. o Dec., N 3A

9.2

1978

1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985"

8.5

7.1
3.7
.6
1.7
1.8

7.8

8.8

11.1

11.4

13.5

8.5
4.2
-.8
.8
2.1

7.4
7.5
1.4
2.1
2.3
3.5
.3

7.9

17.5
14.2

11.7

12.8
11.8

9.2
3.9
1.9
1.8
2.7

9.2
4.0
1.6
2.1
.9

Cl ange, month to mont h
0.0

1985: Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov '
Dec r

-.2
.2
-.3

1.2
.7

.4
0
.3
-.4
.6
.7
.8

.9
-.7
-1.0

— .5

.9
.7
.6

1.7
1.1
.8

-.7

1986: Jan
Feb '.
Mar

0.2

-0.4
-.6
-.8
— .1

.5
.2

-.4

2.3

.3

-2.3

0.8

2.2
3.2
2.2
1.1

-2.4

.1
7.2
15.0

2.6

1.0
1.7
1.0

1.6

6.0

-6.2
12.4

1.5
1.5
1.7
-.9
2.7
2.8
5.3

2.8
-.5
3.4
8.3

-2.9

.1
4.2
9.2

1.7
1.6

-2.9

-9.8
20.1

-4.6
-6.6

.8
.1
.9

0.5

— .1

.6
1.5
3.2
1.4

.7
1.0

3.3
2.6
1.8
.3
2.1
2.3
2.1

1.1
.9
.8
.2
1.1
1.4
1.8

.5

2.9
1.1
3.6

-1.2
-2.2

.2

3.1
2.8

2.6
2.9
2.8
1.6
.3
.2
2.6

0
3.8
5.7

2.4

2.8
3.6

-1.2
-2.1
-3.8
-4.5
-2.0
-3.3
-4.4

0.5

3.8
1.9

6.1
1.2

.1
.6

-1.1

5.1

4.7
8.9

-3.3
-4.2
-7.1
-5.7

0.1

_!
.1
.3

-1.0

-1.6

— 1.6
-1.1

0.2
.1
.1
.1
.1
.2
-.5
1.0
.2
.1

1.7
1.5
3.1

-3.4
-7.0

1.4
-.1
-1.4

Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
[Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]
Housing

Tr msportati on

Period

All
items *

Food

Total1

Rent-

Home-

costs

costs

Total'

Fuel
and
other
utilities

parel
and
upkeep

Total '

New
cars

Adden dum: All ite us, percent hange

All

Ap-

Shelter

Motor
fuel

Medical
care

Energy2

(annul Irate)

items
less
food,
energy,
and
shelter

From
previous

From
3
months
earlier

From
6
months
earlier

From
year
earlier
NSA

0 lange, December to Dec ?mber, ft SA
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

9.0
13.3
12.4

11.8
10.2
10.2

8.9
3.9
3.8
4.0
3.8

4.3
3.1
2.6
3.8
2.7

0.5
.3
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.4
.6
.4

0.1
.0

.3

9.9
15.2
13.7
10.2

5.9

3.2 n

16.0
13.6
14.5

11.5
17.4
15.1

5.5
6.8
3.6
1.6
2.9
2.0
2.9

4.3

9.9
2.4
4.7
5.2
6.0

5.1
5.9
6.3

4.5
5.1
5.9

.2
.0
.1
.4
.1
.7
.6

0.4
.3
.5
.3
.3
.4
.1
.3
.5
.3

0.4
.5
.9
.4
.5
.6
.2
.5
.7
.4

0.5
.4
.9
.5
.4
.4
.3
.7
.6
.3

0.3
.5
1.0
.3
.6
.6
.2
.3
.7
.4

0.6
.4
0
.5
-.1
.2
.2
-.2
.4
.3

.2

.3

.4
.4
.6

.3
.3
.5

.3
.3
.9

.2

3.6
3.5
4.2

9.7
1.8
4.2
1.9

6.4
6.1
6.7

1.3
-.5
.2
1.8

6.5
7.2
9.9
9.4
6.1
5.0
4.4
3.7

-.6
-.2
.8
.5

0.8
.5
.6
.7
.4
.6
.6
.5
.5
.7

1.5
1.1
.4
.1
.2
-.4
-.2
-.2
.6
.4

0.4
.3
-.0
.2
.2
.2
.2
.5
.5
.3

.2
.1
.4 -6.0
.2 -11.9

.4
.7
1.0

.1

.5
.2
.2

7.7

6.2

8.5

8.8

8.0

18.2
14.7
11.0

7.4
7.5
6.8
1.6
3.4
2.4
3.5

52.2

10.1
10.0
12.5
11.0

37.4

1.7
3.9
3.1
2.6

18.9

9.4
6.5
-1.7

2.4
3.0

18.1
11.9

7.7

11.3

13.5
10.4

6.1
3.2
4.3
3.6

Cha nge, mo nth to nlonth
1985: Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1886: Jan
Peb
Mar

1

— .4

Y

— .1

-.4

.1

.2

1
2

-1.2
-1.0

0.4
.1
.0
.3
.1
.4
.4
.3
-.0

0.9
.6
-.2
0
.0
.2
-.2
.4
.7
.4

.3
-.5

.5
1.4

— .1

— .1

Includes items not shown separately.
Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant,
etc., also included through 1982.
3
Quarterly changes are shown in the last month o! the quarter.

24



-2.8

0.3
.2
.2
.2
.1
.2
.2
.4
.3
.3

2.7
1.7
.9
.3
.1
— .4

-3.8
-6.5

3.2

4.0

2.6

4.3

4.0
4.6
4.2
3.3

2.6
2.6
2.4
3.1
4.5
5.3
5.1
1.2

1.5

-1.9

3.5
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.4
2.8
2.9
3.6
3.8

3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.6
3.8

4.1
2.9
1.6

3.9
3.2
2.3

NOTE.—Data beginning January 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs and therefore are not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS
Prices received by farmers fell 0.8 percent in March. Prices paid by farmers were unchanged in February (the latest
month for which data are available).
INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE)

INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE)

180

180

PRICES PAID

160

160

140

140

120

120

PRICES RECEIVED -

100

100

80

80

Illllllllll

60

Illllllllll

Illllllllll

60

60

60

1986

1978
i/RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID.

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

[1977 = 100]

r rices paid by farmer s

Pri ses received by farm ers
Period

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985:

Mar
Apr
May
Aug
Sept

Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Febr

Mar

Livestock and
products

ps

115

June
July

1986:

All farm
products

132
134
139
133
135
142
129
134
132
130
128
127
122
121
123
127
128
124
122
121

105
116
125
134
121
128
139
121
128
126
126
123
123
115
112
111
116
118
113
111
111

1
Includes items not shown separately.
2
Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes,
and wage rates.
3
Not available.




124
147
144

143
145
141
146
136
141
136
134
134
130
128
128
134
138
137
135
133
131
4

All commodities,
services,
interest, taxes,
and wage rates '

Production
items, interest,
taxes, and wage
rates

108
123
138
150
157
160
164
163
164
164
164
164
163
162
162
162
162
162
163
163

(a)

109
125
139
151
155
159
161
157
159
159
159
158
156
156
155
154
155
155
156
155
(3)

Production
items

108
125
138
148
150
153
155
151
153
153
152
151
150
149
148
148
149
149
150
149
(3)

Ratio 2

106
107
97
93
85
84
86
79
82
80
79
78
78
75
75
76
78
79
76
75
"74

Derived using prices paid index for February.

NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by taw. The indexes
have been converted to a 1977= 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes.
Source: Department of Agriculture.

25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES
Growth in Ml accelerated in March, while growth in M2 and M3 was little changed.
BILLIONS Of DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
3,400

BILUONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE)
3,400

300

300
1985

1986

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

• AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE; BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

[Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]
Ml

Period

1978:
1979:
1980:
1981:
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
1985:

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec '
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Ocf
Nov r
Dec'
1986: Jan '
Feb r
Mar"

M2

Sum of currency,
demand deposits,
travelers' checks,
and other
checkable
deposits (OCDs)

Ml plus overnight
HPs and
Eurodollars,
MMMF balances
(general purpose
and broker/dealer),
MMDAs, and
savings and small
time deposits

M2 plus large
time deposits,
term RPs, term
Eurodollars, and
institution-only
MMMF balances

363.0
388.7
414.2
441.1
479.9
527.1
558.5
626.6
572.2
575.7
582.5
590.9
596.2
604.8
611.5
614.2
620.1
626.6
627.2
631.0
638.4

1,388.9
1,497.5
1,630.3
1,792.8
1,952.6
2,186.0
2,373.8
2,565.8
2,429.4
2,434.4
2,451.9
2,479.0
2,496.1
2,515.4
2,529.5
2,538.3
2,550.7
2,565.8
2,569.0
2,576.6
2,590.3

Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfmancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts.
2
Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.

26



Debt of
domestic
nonfinancial
sectors
(montnly
average) l

M3 plus
other liquid
assets

1,646.4
1,803.2
1,987.4
2,233.6
2,443.5
2,697.3
2,986.6
3,200.9
3,046.6
3,052.0
3,069.9
3,098.0
3,113.3
3,131.4
3,151.5
3,166.2
3,181.3
3,200.9
3,224.7
3,240.8
3,258.6

1,909.0
2,114.8
2,323.3
2,593.7
2,850.1
3,163.5
3,532.3
3,837.6
r
3,611.9
r
3,617.4
r
3,636.4
r
3,665.7
r
3,683.8
r
3,711.7
r
3,740.5
3,762.4
3,799.3
3,837.6
3,860.6
3,879.4
I

1

Debt

L

M3

3,169.5
3,554.5
3,894.6
4,269.6
4,661.1
5,191.9
5,951.9
6,802.1
6,131.7
6,194.5
6,259.0
6,323.5
6,392.5
r
6,461.9
'6,526.8
6,594.0
6,680.7
6,802.1
6,905.9
6,965.0

Perce nt change from year or 6
months earlier 2

Ml

8.3
7.1
6.6
6.5
8.8
9.8
6.0
12.2
8.0
9.7
10.5
11.9
12.2
12.9
14.2
13.8
13.3
12.4
10.7
8.9
9.0

M_

NOTE.—See p. 27 for components.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

M2

8.0
7.8
8.9
10.0
8.9
12.0
8.6
8.1
10.6
9.8
9.0
9.1
8.2
7.9
8.4
8.7
8.2
7.1
5.9
4.9
4.9

M3

11.8
9.5
10.2
12.4
9.4
10.4
10.7
7.2
10.2
8.8
7.9
7.6
6.7
6.5
7.0
7.6
7.4
6.8
7.3
7.1
6.9

Debt

13.3
12.1
9.6
9.6
9.2
11.4
14.6
14.3
14.4
14.2
13.5
12.9
12.8
13.1
13.3
13.3
13.9
15.7
16.7
16.2

COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS
[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA]

Other
Period

Demand
deposits

Currcncv

checkable
deposits
(OCDs)

Overnight
repurchase
agreements
(RI's),
net, plus
overnight
Eurodollars

NSA

1978: Dec
1979: Dec
1980: Dec
1981: Dec
1982: Dec
1983: Dec
1984: Dec
1985: Dec
1985:
Mar
Apr
Mav
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

1986:
Jan *
Feb r.
Mar "

97.6
106.4
116.7
124.1
134.3
148.3
158.5
170.6

253.5
261.1
265.3
234.6
237.9
242.7
248.4
271.5

8.5
17.4
28.0
78.0
103.4
131.3
146.3
178.6

161.3
161.9
163.2
164.4
165.3
166.9
167.7
168.7
169.8
170.6

251.4
251.8
255.4
259.0

20.3
21.2
28.3
35.9

Money market
mutua 1 fund
baia aces
General

purpose
and

broker/
dealer

NSA

Institution
only

NSA

3.1
9.5

Money
market
deposit
accounts
(MMDAs)

Large
denomination
time
depositS '

NSA

Term
repurchase
agreements
(RPs)

Term
Eurodollars
(net)

SSA

Small
denomination
time
deposits'

Savings
deposits

NSA

Shortterm
Treasury
securities

Bankers'
acceptances

r omC
mercial
paper

80.3
79.6
72.3
67.8
68.0
71.2
74.3
79.5

81.1
107.8
133.4
149.6
184.4
214.9
266.0
306.7

22.0
27.2
32.1
39.9
44.3
44.5
43.6
41.1

79.2
97.0
98.1
102.8
109.9
135.6
161.8

Savings
oonds

482.0
423.9
401.4
344.8
357.9
306.6
289.7
303.6

521.5
635.3
730.2
825.1
852.8
785.2
887.5
880.3

195.1
222.1
259.0
301.8
327.8
329.9
413.9
436.5

26.6
29.5
34.0
36.0
34.5
51.8
62.2
65.7

31.8
44.7
50.3
67.5
81.7
91.5

460.2
462.5
466.4
478.1
487.2
495.2
499.8
r
504.1
r
509.5
r
512.0

289.7
289.0
290.8
293.6
296.7

299.7
300.3
302.3
303.7
303.6

885.0
887.6
889.5
890.3
888.0
880.9
878.3
875.7
876.0
880.3

421.0
425.9
425.0
422.7
418.3
421.0
425.6
429.7
432.9
r
436.5

58.7
59.8
57.7
57.1
55.7
57.1
58.5
59.5
63.0
65.7

84.7
80.9
81.4
79.2
78.8
80.0
80.2
79.4
r
79.5
r
77.6

75.3
75.7
76.1
76.5
76.7
77.2

78.0
78.5
79.0
79.5

274.8
276.0
277.4
282.6
279.9
278.1
281.3
281.4
299.5
r
306.7

515.7
516.3
520.4

304.0
304.9
306.9

886.0
890.9
895.1

447.8
451.1
450.3

68.5
70.3
71.4

77.5
80.0
81.4

79.9
80.5

303.9
307.1

0.0
.0
.0
.0

38.8
53.8
56.3
69.4

6.4
33.4
61.6
150.6
185.2
138.2
167.5
176.5

15.2
38.0
51.1
43.2
62.7
64.6

43.2
379.2
417.0
512.0

260.4
263.1
266.4
266.0
267.8
271.5

154.1
156.5
158.4
161.8
164.8
169.0
171.5
r
!73.7
r
176.7
r
178.6

63.3
57.8
61.3
60.8
60.7
63.6
64.1
64.6
r
65.8
r
69.4

177.6
176.2
172.2
175.4
175.8
176.8
176.7
177.0
176.8
176.5

59.5
59.6
63.5
67.1
65.0
63.6
62.3
63.3
64.5
64.6

171.9 268.9
172.9 269.1
173.9 273.1

180.5
183.1
185.2

67.9
67.7
65.6

177.7
180.9
185.8

67.3
67.7
70.3

83.1
77.6

209.5
r

46.3
169.0
r
45.9
167.7
168.6
44.5
r
165.7
42.8
r
42.2 !71.6
42.2 ' 182.9
r
42.5
187.2
43.9 ' 192.5
r
196.4
43.1
41.1 r 209.5

210.6
208.9

41.5
42.1

CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT
[Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted]

Net change in in stallment ere dit outstandir g1

Ins tallment credit outstanding (end of perio d)
Period
Total

1976:Dec r
1977:Dec '
1978:Dec r
1979:Dec r
1980:Dec r
1981:Dec r
1982:Dec r
1983:Decr
1984:Dec r
1985:Dec r
1985: Jan r
Feb r
Mar T
Aprr
Mavr
June r
July r
Aug r
Sept r
Oct r
Nov r
Dec r
1986: Jan '
Feb"«
1

187,782
221,475
261,976

296,483
297,667
314,321
327,173
376,239
453,580
535,098
459,843
466,690
474,989
482,532
488,862
403,253
500,039
506,090
516,420
522,978
528,621
535,098
542,753
547,727

Automobile

Revolving

66,821
80,948
98,739
112,475
112,255
120,020
125,369
145,908
173,122
206,482

16,595
36,689
45,202
53,357
54,894
60,750

175,845
178,251

181,514
184,526
187,533
189,459
191,201
192,923
198,656
201,994
203,766
206,482
210,661
213,196

66,007
78,369
98,514
118,296
100,263
102,373
105,297
107,417
108,372
109,260
110,904
112,373
113,850
115,218
117,050
118,296
119,682
120,722

For year-end data, change from preceding year-( id; for monthly data, change from preceding




Mobile
home
15,738
16,362
16,921
18,207

19,119
20,382
20,998
22,194
24,184
25,461
24,139
24,360
24,468
24,570
24,670
24,768
25,015
25,173
25,341
25,320
25,315
25,461
25,371
25,564

Other

88,628
87,476
101,114
112,444
111,399
113,169
114,799
129,768
157,760
184,859
159,596
161,706
163,710
166,019
168,287
169,766
172,919
175,621
178,573
180,446
182,490
184,859
187,039
188,245

Total
20,739
33,693
40,501
34,507
1,184

16,654
12,852
49,066
77,341
81,518
6,263
6,847
8,299
7,543
6,330
4,391
6,786
6,051
10,330
6,558
5,643
6,477
7,655
4,974

Automobile
9,832
14,127
17,791
13,736
-220
7,765
5,349
20,539
27,214

33,360
2,723
2,406
3,263
3,012
3,007
1,926
1,742
1,722
5,733
3,338
1,772
2,716
4,179
2,535

Revolving

2,088
20,094
8,513
8,155
1,537

5,856
5,257
12,362
20,145
19,782
1,749
2,110
2,924
2,120
955
888

1,644
1,469
1,477
1,368
1,832
1,246
1,386
1,040

Mobile
home

Other

350
624
559

8,469
-1,152
13,638

1,286

11,330
-1,045
1,770
1,630
14,969
27,992
27,099
1,836
2,110
2,004
2,309
2,268
1,479
3,153
2,702
2,952
1,873
2,044
2,369
2,180
1,206

912

1,263
616

1,196
1,990
1,277
-45
221
108
102
100
98
247
158
168
-21
-5
146
-90
193

BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES, AND RESERVES
Commercial and industrial loans rose 1.4 percent in March.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
2,000
1,800 — ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS
1,600
1,400

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE)
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400

1,200

1,200

1,000

1,000

800

800

-LOANS AND LEASES

600

600

400

400

U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES

200

200

160

160

OTHER SECURITIES
120

120

80
60

60
1979

1978

1981

1980

1982

1984

1983

1986

1985

' SEASONALLY ADJUSTED.
SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted]
Al commercial ban L S

Depo itory institutio n s 3

1

Borrc wings
(millions of dollars,
unad usted)

R jserves adjust 3d

Period

Total loans

U.S.
Government

and

securities

1978:
1979:
1980:
1981:
1982:
1983:
1984:
1985:
1985:

Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dee
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan
Feb"
Mar"

1,013.8
1,135.4
1,239.7
1,307.4
1,400.5
1,553.0
1,716.8
1,895.5
1,761.6
1,768.8
1,788.5
1,802.7
1,819.0
1,828.8
1,841.3
1,844.4
1,869.6
1,895.5
1,919.6
1,926.2
1,941.5

Total 2

746.9
849.1
914.5
967;4
1,032.8
1,122.7
1,316.5
1,450.3
1,355.6
1,367.1
1,380.0
1,391.0
1,402.1
1,409.2
1,416.9
1,419.7
1,433.9
1,450.3
r
1,465.4
1,470.5
1,493.0

Commercial
and industrial
loans
246.1

291.1
326.9
355.1
391.5
412.8
469.0
493.9
481.2
481.9
484.3
484.3
484.1
485.7
487.2
487.0
490.6
493.9
r
494.2
495.3
502.1

securities

Total

137.6
144.4
170.9
179.6
202.7
260.8
260.3
270.7
267.1
261.4
266.3
267.1
271.6
271.4
273.1
270.0
275.0
270.7
264.6
270.8
268.0

1
Data are prorated averages of Wednesday figures for domestically chartered banks and averag>
of month-end data for foreign-related institutions.
2
Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States.
3
Data are averages of daily figures.

28



for changes i i
res erve reqmrem ents

Loans a nd leases

129.2
141.9
154.4
160.4
165.0
169.6
140.0
174.5
138.9
140.2
142.2
144.5
145.4
148.2
151.3
154.8
160.7
174.5
189.6
184.9
180.5

27.91
29.20
31.04
32.10
34.28
36.14
39.08
45.19
40.47
40.71
41.32
42.18
42.61
43.19
43.51
43.65
44.38
45.19
45.37
45.82
46.33

borrowed

27.04
27.73
29.35
31.46
33.65
35.36
35.90
43.87
38.88
39.39
39.99
40.97
41.50
42.12
42.22
42.46
42.64
43.87
44.59
44.93
45.57

Required

27.67
28.76
30.52
31.78
33.78
35.58
38.23
44.13
39.71
39.97
40.52
41.27
41.75
42.37
42.84
42.90
43.45
44.13
44.25
44.72
45.43

Total

868
1,473
1,690
636
634
774
3,186
1,318
1,593
1,323
1,334
1,205
1,107
1,073
1,289
1,187
1,741
1,318
770
884
761

Seasonal

135
81
116
54
33
96
113
56
88
135
165
151
167
221
203
172
107
56
36
56
68

NOTE.—Data beginning January 1984 are not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods,
rgely because beginning January 1984 certain obligations of States and political subdivisions are
cluded in loans rather than in other securities.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL
CORPORATE BUSINESS
[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Sources

Uses
External

Period
Total

Cr edit market fu nds

Internal l
Total
Total

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1S85"

Securities
and
mortgages

Loans and
short-term
paper

Other 2

Total

Capital
expenditures 3

Increase in
financial
assets

Discrepancy
(sources less
uses)

324.5
354.0
348.6
380.8
329.4
435.1
511.3
473.5

IV

1985: I

n
m

IV

81.0
88.2
93.0
92.2
83.5
84.7
115.4
75.3

33.3
21.0
52.1
21.8
44.0
57.3
-11.2
11.7

47.7
67.3
40.9
70.4
39.5
27.4
126.5
63.6

61.3
68.2
55.5
49.2
3.6
62.3
57.8
27.8

309.0
362.5
341.6
349.6
283.6
395.1
457.6
430.9

216.9
238.3
244.1
286.3
256.3
271.4
376.3
367.2

92.0
124.3
97.5
63.3
27.3
123.8
81.4
63.7

15.5
-8.5
7.0
31.2
45.8
40.0
53.6
42.6

324.8
334.4
343.9
349.6

207.8
186.7
118.8
179.1

113.9
92.5
85.2
169.8

-27.8
-57.6
.5
40.3

141.7
150.1
84.7
129.5

93.8
94.3
33.6
9.4

491.9
468.1
394.5
476.0

356.6
381.8
385.5
381.1

135.3
86.3
9.0
94.9

40.7
53.0
68.2
52.6

423.9
462.9
481.5
525.5

n
m

142.2
156.5
148.5
141.3
87.1
147.0
173.1
103.1

532.6
521.1
462.7
528.7

1984: I

182.3
197.6
200.1
239.5
242.3
288.1
338.1
370.4

358.3
364.6
382.7
376.1

65.6
98.3
98.8
149.4

64.8
74.2
56.0
106.3

-13.4
31.6
11.2
17.5

78.2
42.6
44.8
88.8

.7
24.0
42.9
43.1

390.5
418.8
441.8
472.2

356.7
366.0
365.5
380.8

33.8
52.8
76.3
91.4

33.5
44.0
39.7
53.3

1

Undistributed profits {after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capita!
consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained
abroad.
2
Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S.

3
Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S.
Government.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL
CORPORATIONS
[Billions of dollars, except as noted]
C urrent liabilitie s

Curren assets
End of period
Total

Cash

Governsecurities

QFR-FRB series:

Notes and
accounts
receivable

Invento-

Other
current
assets

Total

Notes and
accounts
payable

Other
current
liabilities

Net
working
capital

ratio l

2

1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1983: m
IV
1984: I

n
m

IV
1985: I

n
m"

1

1,043.7
1,214.8
1,328.3
1,419.6
1,437.1
1,575.9
1,703.0
1,537.3
1,575.9
1,619.5
1,650.0
1,685.9
1,703.0
1,715.9
1,725.2
1,750.5

105.5
118.0
127.0
135.6
147.8
171.8
173.6
155.0
171.8
167.6
164.9
161.3
173.6
167.9
170.6
178.6

17.2
16.7
18.7
17.7
23.0
31.0
36.2
27.5
31.0
35.4
37.2
33.0
36.2
34.7
34.1
31.1

388.0
459.0
507.5
532.5

517.4
583.0

633.1
567.5
583.0
606.4
622.6

639.1
633.1
647.4
648.5
653.2

Total current assets divided by total current liabilities.
2
Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corpo•ations, Effective mid-1982, responsibility for the Quarterly financial Report was transferred to




431.8
505.1
543.0
584.0
579.0
603.4
656.9
600.8
603.4
622.2
632.5
659.3
656.9
664.7
663.7

670.1

101.1
116.0
132.1
149.7
169.8
186.7
203.2
186.6
186.7
187.9
192.9
193.2
203.2
201.1
208.3
217.4

669.5
807.3
890.6

971.3
986.0
1,059.6
1,163.6
1,040.2
1,059.6
1,093.1
1,126.3
1,155.0
1,163.6
1,171.5
1,176.0
1,203.8

383.0
460.8

514.4
547.1

286.5
346.5
376.2

424.1

550.7
595.7
647.8

435.3
463.9

571.0
595.7

469.2
463.9

601.9

491.2

623.4
642.2
647.8
635.3
647.3
664.2

502.9

515.8

512.9
515.8
536.2
528.7
539.5

374.3
407.5
437.8
448.3
451.1
516.3
539.5
497.1
516.3
526.5
523.7
530.8
539.5
544.4
549.3
546.7

1.559
1.505
1.492
1.462
1,458
1.487
1.464
1.478
1.487
1.482
1.465
1.460
1.464
1.465
1,467
1.454

the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census from the Federal Trade Commission.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau
of the Census), and Federal Trade Commission.

INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS
Interest rates fell in April.
PERCENT PER ANNUM

PERCENT PER ANNUM

SOURCE' SEE TABLE BELOW

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Percent per annum]

U.S. T reasury security yields
Period

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

1985
1985: Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1986: Jan
Feb
Mar r
Apr"
Week ended:
1986: Apr 5
12
19
26
May 3
1

3-month bills
(new issues) l

Constant ir aturities 2
3-year

10-year

11.506
14.029
10.686
8.63
9.58
7.48

11.55
14.44
12.92
10.45
11.89
9.64

11.46
13.91
13.00

8.57
8.00
7.56
7.01
7.05
7.18
7.08
7.17
7.20
7.07
7.04
7.03
6.59
6.06
6.35
6.19
5.84
5.86
6.08

High-grade
municipal
bonds
(Standard &
Poor's) 3




Prime
commercial
paper,
6 months 1

Discount rate
(N.Y. F.K.
Bank) 5

12.29
14.76
11.89

11.77
13.41
11.02

8.89
10.16
8.01

8.50
8.80
7.69

Prime rate
charged by
hanks 5

15.27

8.51
11.23

11.94
14.17

11.10
12.44
10.62

11.57
9.47
10.15
8.18

13.79
12.04
12.71
11.37

11.05
10.49
9.75
9.05
9.18
9.31
9.37
9.25
8.88
8.40
8.41
8.10
7.30
6.86

11.86
11.43
10.85
10.16
10.31
10.33
10.37
10.24
9.78
9.26
9.19
8.70
7.78
7.30

9.79
9.48
9.08
8.78
8.90
9.18
9.37
9.24
8.64
8.51
8.06
7.44
7.07

12.56
12.23
11.72
10.94
10.97
11.05
11.07
11.02
10.55
10.16
10.05
9.67
9.00
8.77

9.23
8.47
7.88
7.38
7.57
7.74
7.86
7.79
7.69
7.62
7.62
7.54
7.08
6.47

8.00-8.00 10.50-10.50
8.00-8.00 10.50-10.50
8.00-7.50 10.50-10.00
7.50-7.50 10.00- 9.50
7.50 7.50 9.50- 9.50
7.50-7.50 9.50- 9.50
7.50-7.50 9.50- 9.50
7.50-7.50 9.50- 9.50
7.50-7.50 9.50 9.50
9.50- 9.50
7.50-7.50
7.50-7.50 9.50- 9.50
7.50 7.50 9.50- 9.50
7.50-7.00 9.50- 9.00
7.00-6.50 9.00 8.50

7.03
6.82
6.59
6.94

7.39
7.31
7.10
7.35

7.21
7.33
7.28
7.34

8.74
8.75
8.66
8.90

6.82
6.53
6.30
6.34

7.00-7.00
7.00 7.00
7.00-7.00
7.00-6.50
6.50-

Bank-discount basis.
Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department.
3
Weekly data are Wednesday figures.
4
Series excludes public utility issues for January 17, 1984 through October 11, 1984 due to lack
of appropriate issues.
2

Corporate
Aaa bonds
(Moody's) 4

18.87
14.86
10.79
12.04
9.93

New-home
mortgage
yields
(FHLBB) «

12.66
14.70
15.14

12.57
12.38
11.92
12.05
12.01
11.75
11.34
11.24
11.17
11.09
11.01
10.94
10.89
r
10.68
10.48

9.00- 9.00
9.00- 9.00
9.00- 9.00
9.00- 8.50
8.50-

5

Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week.
6
Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as
well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years.
Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS
Stock prices rose in April.
INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965=50

INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50
140
130

I—

—

70
60

—

50
40

1978

PERCENT

PERCENT

20

20
EARNINC3S-PRICE RATIC) ON COMMON STOCKS

(S&P)

15

"'V_^

—/•r

10

15

K
'V

~
^
1

1 1 1

i ' i

1978

1979

1 1 '

1

1980

'

1

1981

1

1

^~
•^^

^^»

^
|

1

1

1982

'

1983

'

10

~-

"
| |

1984

I I I
1985

Co nmon stock prices 1
NCTp York Stock EM hange indexes (TJ ec. 31, 1965 = 5 O)
Composite

Industrial

tion

1986

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE A ^D STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION

Period

1 1 1

Common stijck yields
(perce at) 5

2

Finance

Utility

Dow-Jones
industrial
average 3

Standard &
Poor's
composite
index (194143 = 10)4

Dividendprice ratio

Earningsprice ratio

68.10
74.02
68.93
92.63
92.46
108.09

78.70
85.44
78.18
107.45
108.01
123.79

60.61
72.61
60.41
89.36
85.63
104.11

37.35
38.91
39.75
47.00
46.44
56.75

64.25
73.52
71.99
95.34
89.28
114.21

891.41
932.92
884.36
1,190.34
1,178.48
1,328.23

118.78
128.05
119.71
160.41
160.46
186.84

5.26
5.20
5.81
4.40
4.64
4.25

12.66

119.64
119.93
121.88
124.11
126.94
124.92
122.35
123.65
130.53
136.77

98.30
96.47
99.66
105.79
111.67
109.92
104.96
103.72
108.61
113.52

53.91
55.51
57.32
59.61
59.68
56.99
55.93
55.84
59.07
61.69

107.59
109.39
115.31
118.47
119.85
114.68
110.21
112.36
122.83
128.86

1,268.83
1,266.36
1,279.40
1,314.00
1,343.17
1,326.18
1,317.95
1,351.58
1,432.88
1,517.02

179.42
180.62
184.90
188.89
192.54
188.31
184.06
186.18
197.45
207.26

4.37
4.37
4.31
4.21
4.14
4.23
4.32
4.28
4.06
3.88

9.07

Oct
Nov
Dec

103.92
104.66
107.00
109.52
111.64
109.09
106.62
107.57
113.93
119.33

Jan
Feb
Mar *
Apr"

120.16
126.43
133.97
137.34

137.13
144.03
152.75
157.34

115.72
124.18
128.66
126.30

62.46
65.18
68.06
69.48

132.36
142.13
153.94
155.30

1,534.86
1,652.73
1,757.35
1,808.15

208.19
219.37
232.33
238.05

3.90
3.72
3.50

135.45
136.29
135.27
134.90
138.72
139.85

154.76
155.93
154.38
154.27
158.91
160.59

129.26
130.52
127.72
124.98
126.49
127.19

68.11
68.39
68.98
68.44
70.20
70.31

156.02
155.82
154.30
153.56
157.37
156.89

1,785.49
1,798.46
1,781.92
1,773.67
1,831.67
1,836.76

235.19
236.58
234.18
233.67
240.53
242.64

3.45
3.43
3.46
3.49
3.37
3.38

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1985: Mar

Apr
May
June
July

Aug
Sept

1986:

11.96
11.60
8.03
10.02

8.12
8.03

Week ended:

1986: Mar 22
29
Apr 5
12
19
26
1
2

Average of daily closing prices.
Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE.
Includes 30 stocks.
Includes 500 stocks.
Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earningsprice ratios based on prices at end of quarter.
3
4
6




NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

31

FEDERAL FINANCE
FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT
In the first 6 months of fiscal 1986, there was a deficit of $136.3 billion compared with a deficit of $130.0 billion
a year earlier.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,000
RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS y

1,000
900

900
800

800

" OUTLAYS

700

700

600

600
RECEIPTS

500

500

400

400

-100

-200

-200
1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1986

1985

1987

FISCAL YEARS
! INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS.
/
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

[Billions of dollars]

Total
Fiscal year or period
Receipts

Outlays

Receipts

Outlays

Gross Fee eral debt
(end of period)

Off-budget

On-budget
Surplus
or deficit
(-)

Surplus
of deficit
(-)

Receipts

Outlays

Surplus
or deficit
(-)

Total

Held by
the public

1975
1976
Transition quarter
1977
1978
1979

279.1
298.1
81.2
355.6
399.6
463.3

332.3
371.8
96.0
409.2
458.7
503.5

-53.2
-73.7
14.7
-53.6
59.2
-40.2

216.6
231.7
63.2
278.7
314.2
365.3

271.9
302.2
76.6
328.5
369.1
403.5

-55.3
-70.5
13.3
-49.7
54.9
-38.2

62.5
66.4
18.0
76.8
85.4
98.0

60.4
69.6
19.4
80.7
89.7
100.0

2.0
-3.2
-1.4
-3.9
-4.3
-2.0

544.1
631.9
646.4
709.1
780.4
833.8

396.9
480.3
498.3
551.8
610.9
644.6

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

517.1
599.3
617.8
600.6
666.5

590.9
678.2
745.7
808.3
851.8

-73.8
-78.9
-127.9
-207.8
-185.3

403.9
469.1
474.3
453.2
500.4

476.6
543.0
594.3
661.2
686.0

-72.7
-73.9
120.0
-208.0
185.6

113.2
130.2
143.5
147.3
166.1

114.3
135.2
151.4
147.1
165.8

-1.1
5.0
-7.9
.2
.3

914.3
1,003.9
1,147.0
1,381.9
1,576.7

715.1
794.4
929.4
1,141.8
1,312.6

734.1
777.1
850.4

946.3
979.9
994.0

-212.3
-202.8
-143.6

547.9
579.2
636.1

769.5
795.2
795.4

-221.6
-216.0
-159.3

186.2
197.9
214.3

176.8
184.7
198.6

9.4
13.2
15.7

1,827.5
2,112.0
2,320.6

1,509.9
1,714.0
1,855.7

340.3
356.9

470.3
493.2

-130.0
-136.3

252.1
262.4

382.2
405.1

-130.1
- 142.7

88.1
94.5

88.1
88.1

.1
6.4

1,715.1
1,991.1

1,418.6
1,637.5

1985
1986
1987

1

1

Cumulative total, first 6
months:
Fiscal year 1985
Fiscal year 1986
1

Estimates.

NOTE.—Data from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1987, Office of Management and Budget, except cumulative monthly totals from Monthly Treasury Statement.

32



Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND
OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
In the first 6 months of fiscal 1986, receipts were $16.6 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $22.9
billion higher.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

400
_

INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES

RECEIPTS!/

400

„.-•—•

300

300
SOCIAL INSURANCE
TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS

200

200

CORPORATION INCOME TAXES_

100

100

0

0

-OUTLAYS^ -

700

700
NONDEFENSE

600

600

500

500

400

400

300

300
NATIONAL DEFENSE

200

200

A'

100

100

1978

1979

1981

1980

1982

1984

1983

1985

1986

1987

FISCAL YEARS
J/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS.
SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]

0 n-budget a nd off-bud *et receip s
Fiscal year
Total

Individual
taxes

Corporation
taxes

On-bud *et and of -budget 01 tlays
Nationa defense

Social
insurance
an

Other

Depart-

Total

90.8
106.5
121.0
138.9

34.3
36.6
37.7
40.8

371.8

64.6
61.1
49.2
37.0
56.9

157.8
182.7
201.5
209.0
239.4

50.6
69.5
69.3
65.6
71.8

590.9
678.2
745.7
808.3

850.4

334.5
353.7
386.0

61.3
70.9
86.7

265.2
280.4
302.8

340.3
356.9

156.1
163.3

26.5
26.4

122.0
130.2

298.1
355.6
399.6
463.3

131.6
157.6
181.0
217.8

41.4

1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

517.1

244.1

599.3

285.9
297.7
288.9
298.4

1985
1986 '
1987 '
Cumulative total, first 6 months:
Fiscal year 1985
Fiscal year 1986
1

617.8
600.6
666.5

734.1
777.1

54.9
60.0
65.7

Net
inter-

Other

22.8
26.5

60.8
61.0
61.5
66.4

73.9
85.1
93.9
104.1

26.7
29.9
35.4
42.6

82.8
93.0
114.7
119.6

23.2
26.9
27.4
28.6
30.4

32.1
39.1
46.6
52.6
57.5

86.5
99.7
107.7
122.6
112.7

118.5
139.6
156.0
170.7
178.2

52.5
68.7
85.0
89.8
111.1

131.4
133.5
125.4
122.3
118.6

6.4
6.4

15.7
17.3

15.8
19.3

7.5
7.5

18.5
20.5

Medi-

89.6
97.2
104.5
116.3

95.3
102.3
113.7

134.0
157.5
185.3

131.0
153.8
180.7

851.8

209.9
227.4

204.4
220.8

12.7
13.1
12.3
11.8
15.9

73.0
72.1
74.9

946.3
979.9
994.0

252.7
265.8
282.2

245.4
258.4
274.3

16.2
17.1
18.6

33.5
35.7
35.0

65.8
68.7
70.2

128.2
118.1
118.4

188.6
200.1
212.2

129.4
142.7
148.0

131.8
131.7
109.3

35.6
37.0

470.3
493.2

122.1
134.2

118.4
130.3

8.8
6.8

16.4
17.1

32.3
34.2

67.8
62.3

92.0
96.5

64.4
70.7

66.6
71.3

Estimates.

NOTE.—Data shown here exclude the transition quarter.
All data from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1987, Office of Management
and Budget.




Social
securi-

Health

Defense,
military

butions
1976

Income
securi-

International

409.2
458.7
503.5

88.1

Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget.

FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS
In the fourth quarter of 1985, according to revised estimates, Federal receipts rose $12.8 billion (annual rate) and
expenditures rose $38.4 billion, yielding a deficit of $226.9 billion. In the first quarter of 1986, expenditures fell
$21.8 billion; receipts data are incomplete.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1,200

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1 1,200

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

1,000

1,000
EXPENDITURES

800

800

600

600
RECEIPTS

400

400

200

200

-200

-200
1978

1979

1980

1981

1985

1984

1982

1986

CALENDAR YEARS
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
Federal G overnment expenditure s

Federal Governmeiit receipts

Period

Total

Fiscal year:
1983
1984
1985
Calendar year:
1983
1984
1985 r.
1982: HI
IV
1983: I

n
in
IV

1984: I

n
m
IV

1985: I

n
ni

IV '

1986: 1"

Personal
tax and
nontax
receipts

Corporate
profits
tax
accruals




Contributions for
social
insurance

Total

Purchases
of goods
and
services

Transfer
payments

Grantsin-aid to
State
and
local
govern-

Net
interest
paid

current
surplus of
Government
enterprises

292.9
304.0
345.2

54.5
73.6
67.6

50.2

247.0
277.6
304.0

833.5
875.6
963.2

288.2
299.5
342.2

347.4

21.2

352.2
373.0

85.7
90.7
97.8

90.6

54.9
56.4

109.7
128.7

23.5
21.4

658.1
725.1
784.7
630.3
633.1

295.0
311.3
350.7
298.1
303.0
297.1
304.2
286.2
292.5
297.8
303.9
315.7
327.8
363.9
321.3
355.4
362.1
355.9

59.3
74.4
67.1
50.1
46.4
46.5
58.2
66.4
66.1
78.9
80.1
69.4
69.2
65.9
65.0
68.9
68.5

51.6
55.8
57.0
47.1
47.6
46.3
52.8
53.7
53.6
54.6
55.8
56.7
56.2
55.5
60.2
55.4
56.9
61.8

252.2
283.6
309.9
235.0
236.1
246.5
250.1
253.4
258.8
278.1
282.0
285.4
288.9
304.4
308.4
311.0
315.9
323.4

837.5
898.0
984.7
789.1
835.7
824.2
835.8
839.4
850.6
867.2
884.9
905.2
934.7
952.4
964.0
992.0
1,030.4
1,008.6

284.8
312.9
355.4
275.3
293.2
287.1
287.0
286.0
279.2
285.6
314.8
318.5
332.9
334.4
337.8
364.8
384.7
354.3

348.5
355.1
379.8
329.1
347.4
344.4
350.8
346.6
352.3
350.5
351.9
356.2
361.9
374.1
376.7
383.5
384.8
388.4

86.2
93.6
99.0
83.3
84.5
85.8
85.8
87.1
86.2
91.3
93.0
93.0
97.3
95.7
97.6
100.6
102.0
109.6

94.3
115.5
129.2
87.1
87.2
88.0
91.1
96.8
101.2
107.2
110.4
119.5
124.8
126.4
130.1
127.1
133.0
134.7

23.2
21.1
21.1
14.3
23.4
18.8
19.8
22.5
31.6
32.7
15.1
18.0
18.5
21.9
20.9
15.9
25.9
21.5

636.3
665.2
659.7
671.1
709.4
721.8
727.1
742.1
789.7
754.9
790.7
803.5

or deficit

Subsidies

644.6
710.1
773.1

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysi

34

Indirect
business
tax and
nontax
accruals

Wage
accruals
less
disbursements

national
income
and
product
accounts

0.4
-.1
.1

-188.9
-165.5
-190.1

-.4
.2
-.2
.0
.0
.0
-1.3
-.4
.0

-179.4
-172.9
-200.0
- 158.8
-202.6
-187.9
-170.6
-179.7
-179.5
-157.8
-163.0
-178.1
-192.7
-162.6
-209.1
-201.3
-226.9

.2
.2
.0
.6
.1
-1.0
.0
.0
.0

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR
INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
Industrial reduction (1977 = 1 X); seasonal f adjusted
Period

United
States

Germany

Italy

107

107

108.7

107

106
103
101
102
105
106

107
105
102
103
106
112

114.7
112.1
109.6
103.9
107.1
108.4

100
96
98
101
103
108

217.4
246.8
272.4
289.1
298.4
311.1
322.2

140.8
144.5
148.2
145.1
147.8
146.0
144.6
145.7
144.1
r
145.1

107
104
105
104
108
108
105
107
109
104

110
110
111
113
116
112
112
116
r 117

no

112.0
107.2
108.3
111.3
107.2
107.6
110.1
106.5
110.4
* 106.4

108
109
109
108
108
108
110
109
110
108

144.4

103

113

108.5

109

France

113.7

103.1
109.2
121.8
124.5

109.8
108.1
109.0
97.4
102.9
112.0
116.8

118.9
120.1
120.6
124.7
138.4
144.8

1985: Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

124.0
124.1
124.1
124.3
124.1
125.2
125.1
124.4
125.4
' 126.4

114.2
115.0
115.0
116.4
118.1
118.1
118.0
119.1
' 119.9
' 120.0

1986: Jan
Peb
Mar*

' 126.6
125.7
125.1

120.1

1979

110.7
108.6
111.0

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985"

1

Canada

Consume r prices (1 967=100)
United
Kingdom

Japan

Data relate to all urban consumers.

United
States '

Canada

United
Kingdom

Japan

France

Germany

221.0
243.5
273.9
303.5
321.0
335.0
348.3

261.3
282.3
296.2
304.1
309.7
316.6
323.0

259.1

294.2
332.7
373.1
407.9
439.5
465.1

166.9
175.8
186.9
196.8
203.3
208.2
212.7

328.5
398.0
472.4
549.4
631.8
698.8
764.7

359.0
423.6
473.9
514.7
538.3
565.1
599.4

318.8
320.1
321.3
322.3
322.8
323.5
324.5
325.5
326.6
327.4

344.3
345.7
346.5
348.3
349.5
350.1
350.5
351.7
353.1
354.7

320.2
321.9
323.3
323.5
323.8
320.7
323.8
328.4
325.0
325.2

459.0
462.2
464.5
466.4
468.2
468.7
469.2
470.6
471.5
472.1

212.6
212.9
213.1
213.3
212.9
212.2
212.6
212.9
213.3
213.5

749.4
756.1
760.6
764.4
766.7
768.2
771.3
780.6
786.1
791.6

588.1
600.6
603.4
604.7
603.5
605.1
604.8
605.8
607.9
608.7

328.4
327.5
326.0

356.3
357.7
358.5

325.8
324.4

472.6
471.7

213.8
213.3

795.6

610.0
612.2
613.0

Italy

Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis
and International Trade Administration).

U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
[Millions of dollars; monthly data for statistical month, not seasonally adjusted']
Merc handise expo ts J
Total
foreign
exports

Total 2

Food,
beverages, and
tobacco

Crude
materials and
fuels

Mercha ndise trade balance

Merc randise im] orts
Ger eral import s 3

Domestic exports
Manu
factured
goods

Total 2

Exports

Exports

Exports

Crude
materials and
fuels

less
imports
{customs
value)

less
imports
(f.a.s.)

less
imports
(c.i.f.)

-2,430
-2,590
-2,300
-2,020

-3,265
-3,530
-3,364
-3,030

Food,
beverages, and
tobacco

factured
goods

Total
(c.i.f.
value)

I .a.s. valu e

Monthly average:
1977
1978
1979
1980

10,103

11,973
15,155
18,386

9,919
11,762
14,886
18,043

1,330
1,717
2,049

2,534

1,548
1,746
2,352
2,810

6,679
7,873
9,716
11,991

12,533
14,563
17,455
20,406

1,186
1,312

1,478
1,546

4,463

6,379

4,325
5,949
7,831

8,360
9,352
10,427

13,368
15,504
18,519
21,415

Customs value

1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

19,473
17,683
16,707
18,155
17,762

19,075
17,256
16,326
17,670
17,244

2,767
2,248
2,248
2,276
1,852

2,752
2,793
2,463
2,624
2,362

12,857
11,643
11,034
11,929
12,115

21,748
20,329
21,504
27,144
28,773

1,529
1,485
1,568
1,802
1,865

7,739
6,200
5,670
6,063
5,415

11,873
12,002
13,621
18,460
20,565

22,779 -2,275
21,240 -2,647
22,490 -4,797
28,431 -8,988
30,136 -11,011

-3,306
-3,558
-5,783
-10,276
12,373

1985: Jan'
Peb'
Mar'
Apr*
May'
June*
July*
Aug*
Sept*
Oct*
Nov*
Dec*

18,673
17,143
20,330
17,973
18,337
18,012
16,727
16,584
17,034
17,618
17,721
16,994

18,124
16,648
19,765
17,492
17,816
17,433
16,172
16,106
16,543
17,122
17,227
16,479

2,161
1,995
1,973
1,913
1,603
1,614
1,604
1,783
1,709
1,836
2,128
1,907

2,671
2,580
2,562
2,441
2,261
2,122
2,033
2,258
2,115
2,285
2,559
2,459

12,445
11,218
14,245
12,228
12,992
12,759
11,556
11,233
11,700
12,102
11,688
11,221

28,836
25,941
28,725
28,572
29,302
30,136
27,000
26,247
31,349
28,429
30,010
30,728

1,932
1,817
2,128
1,804
1,919
1,912
1,641
1,719
1,903
1,598
1,865
2,138

5,344
4,906
4,383
5,772
5,700
6,054
5,085
4,851
5,562
5,656
5,657
6,011

20,448
18,385
21,301
20,080
20,725
21,268
19,286
18,916
22,887
20,271
21,557
21,654

30,245
27,169
30,107
29,907
30,712
31,596
28,312
27,512
32,860
29,695
31,371
32,141

-10,163
8,798
-8,395
10,599
-10,965
— 12,124
-10,274
9,663
-14,315
— 10,811
-12,290
-13,734

11,572
- 10,026
9,777
-11,935
12,375
-13,584
11,585
-10,927
-15,826
-12,077
-13,651
-15,146

1986: Jan*
Feb*

17,006
17,735

16,501
17,164

1,797
1,689

2,467
2,367

11,393
12,182

32,005
28,895

2,215
1,908

6,234
4,741

22,477
21,289

14,999
33,465
30,225 -11,161

16,459
-12,491

1
Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginning
January 1978.
2
Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind.
3
Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.
NOTE.—Imports on c.i.f. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods.
Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Is-




lands exports are reflected in the figures for domestic and foreign exports combined and trade balance.
'Beginning with data for January 1986, the Bureau of the Census no longer publishes these data
on a seasonally adjusted basis. For further information and for details regarding revised statistical
month and monthly carryover data, see Bureau of the Census release FT 900,
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

35

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
In the fourth quarter of 1985 the current account deficit rose to $36.6 billion from $29.3 billion in the third
quarter. The merchandise trade deficit rose to $39.5 billion from $33.0 billion in the third quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*

10

10

BALANCE ON GOODS
AND SERVICES

BALANCE ON
CURRENT ACCOUNT

.
V1-- /

-5

.r

-10

MERCHANDISE TRADE
BALANCE

H.

-5

-10

\

\\\

-15

-15

-20

-20

-25

-25

-30

-30

-35

-35

-40

-40

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1985

• SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+}, debits (—).
1

Im/estment inconie 3

Merchandise '

Net
travel and
transportation
receipts

Period
Exports

1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985"

184,473
224,269
237,085
211,198
201,712
219,916
213,990

1983: I

n
m
IV

1984: I

n
rn
IV

1985: I

n
m
IV....

1
2
3

Imports

Net

Receipts

-27,536
-212,009
-249.749
25,480
-265,063 -27,978
-247,642
-36,444
-268,928 -67,216
-334,023 -114,107
-338,279 -124,289

Payments

64,132
72,506
86,411
84,768
78,023
87,609
90,456

-32,960
-42,120
-52,329
-55,273
-52,621
-68,500
-65,772

31,172
30,386
34,082
29,495
25,402
19,109
24,684

-1,778 -2,935
-997
-2,237
144
-1,183
-992
-318
-4,721
-162
-1,765 -8,974
-2,045 — 11,741

Other
services,
net 3

Balance on
goods and
services 1

Remittances,
pensions,
and other
unilateral
transfers '

Balance
on current
account

-991
-5,649
4,659
5,735
1,873
-7,077
8,950
7,277
6,339
13,186
-6,847
8,121
-8,051
84 -8,135
8,345
-45,994
-37,141 -8,852
9,557
-95,945 — 11,413 -107,358
9,791
10,512 - 102,880 -14,784 -117,664

49,535
49,048
49,992
53,137

-58,418
-64,928
-70,689
-74,893

-8,883
-15,880
-20,697
-21,756

17,935
19,172
20,985
19,932

-12,283
-12,856
-13,588
-13,893

5,652
6,316
7,397
6,039

703
-71
-126
-669

—448
-1,116
-1,422
-1,735

2,260
2,462
2,290
2,544

-716
-8,289
-12,558
-15,577

-1,606
-1,875
-2,204
-3,166

-2,322
-10,164
-14,762
-18,743

53,469
54,556
55,649
56,242

-78,091
-84,181
-84.626
-87,127

-24,622
-29,625
-28,977
-30,885

23,502
20,895
21,769
21,445

-15,268
-17,277
-18,513
— 17,442

8,234
3,618
3,256
4,003

-346
-593
-250
-575

-1,753
-2,050
-2,574
-2,597

2,582
2,412
2,452
2,344

-15,905
-26,238
-26,093
-27,710

-2,212
-2,232
-2,876
-4,095

-18,117
-28,470
-28,969
-31,805

55,198
53,530
52,276
52,986

-78,563
-82,017
-85,231
-92,468

-23,365
-28,487
-32,955
-39,482

18,861
22,270
24,896
24,428

-16,331
-16,892
-16,245
- 16,304

2,530
5,378
8,651
8,124

-212
-586
-429
-818

-2,389
-3,090
-3,112
-3,150

2,425
2,587
2,541
2,956

-21,011
-24,198
-25,304
-32,370

-3,172
-3,428
-3,996
-4,189

-24,183
-27,626
-29,300
-36,559

Excludes military grants,
Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage.
Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the

36



United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net.
Source; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $8.6 billion in the fourth quarter of
1985 compared with an increase of $1.5 billion in the third quarter. Liabilities to private foreigners reported by
U.S. banks increased $20.5 billion, compared to an increase of $6.5 billion in the third quarter.
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*
60

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*
60
CHANGE IN
FOREIGN ASSETS
IN THE U.S..NET

40

40

I \
/\
I \
20

20

\ I
\I
M

-20

V

CHANGE IN
U.S. ASSETS
ABROAD, NET

r\

-20

V

-40

-40

i i i

-60

1977

1978

1980

1979

1982

1981

-60

1983

1984

1985

'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted]

Foreign assets in the 1 J.S., net
[increast /capital inflovo (+)] 2

U.S. assets abroad, net

i increase /capit il outflow (— ]
Period

Total

1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985 "

U.S.
official
reserve
assets 1 2

Other U.S.
Government
assets

-64,331
-86,118
-111,031
-119,218
-55,045
-20,447
-38,183

-1,133
-8,155
-5,175
-4,965
-1,196
3,131
-3,858

-26,127
-1,128
-9,814
-17,976

-787
16
529
-953

1,135
-1,263
-1,171
-1,436

-4,976
-18,988
18,364
-14,846

-657
-566
-799
-1,110

-462
-2,551
-12,748
-22,421

-233
-356
-121
-3,148

1983: I

n
m
IV

1984: I

n
m

IV
1985: I

n
m
rv"...

U.S.
private
assets

Total

Other
foreign
assets

of special
drawing
rights
(SDfis)

1,139
1,152
1,093

Statistical discrepancy
Total (sum
of the items
with sign
reversed)

Of which:
Seasonal
adjustment
discrepancy

U S official
assets, net 1
(unadjusted,
end of
period)
18,956
26,756
30,074
33,958
33,747
34,934
43,186

38,752
58,112
83,322
94,447
84,322
97,319
123,108

-13,665
15,497
4,960
3,672
5,795
3,424
1,908

52,416
42,615
78,362
90,775
78,526
93,895
125,016

-24,205
119
-9,172
-15,587

15,158
15,608
19,539
34,017

161
1,706
-2,666
6,916

15,319
13,902
22,205
27,101

13,291
-4,316
5,037
2,702

680
83
-2,953
3,547

34,261
33,876
33,066
33,747

-2,059
-1,353
-1,369
-734

2,260
-17,070
20,532
- 13,003

19,277
41,592
3,140
33,310

-2,786
-224
-686
7,119

22,063
41,816
3,825
26,191

3,816
5,866
7,466
13,341

-455
-573
3,274
4,305

34,975
34,547
34,306
34,934

-850
853
-392
532

621
-1,342
-12,235
-18,742

13,711
26,313
34,548
48,536

-11,204
8,465
2,435
-1,604

24,915
17,849
32,113
50,140

10,934
3,863
7,500
10,444

-425
597
-3,650
4,674

35,493
36,088
38,295
43,186

-3,746 -59,453
-5,162 -72,802
100,758
-5,097
-6,131 -108,122
48,843
-5,006
-5,516 -11,800
-2,628
31,697

1
Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve
position in the IMF.
2
Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted.




Foreign
official
assets

Allocations

25,431

24,982
20,276
32,821
16,717
30,486
32,739

Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the
Treasury,

37

Contents
TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING

page

Gross National Product
Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product
Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures
Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits
National Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Sources of Personal Income
Disposition of Personal Income
Farm Income
Corporate Profits
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment

1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES
Status of the Labor Force
Selected Unemployment Rates
Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs
Nonagricultural Employment
Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries
Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector

11
12
13
14
15
15
16

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures
New Construction
New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates
Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

17
18
19
19
20
21

PRICES
Producer Prices
Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers
Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods
Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers
Prices Received and Paid by Farmers

22
23
24
24
25

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS
Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures
Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets
Consumer Installment Credit
Bank Loans and Securities, and Reserves
Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business
Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations
Interest Rates and Bond Yields
Common Stock Prices and Yields

26
27
27
28
29
29
30
31

FEDERAL FINANCE
Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt
Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function
Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis

32
33
34

INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS
Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries
U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports
U.S. International Transactions

35
35
36

General Notes
Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding.
Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars.
Symbols used:
p
Preliminary.
r
Revised.
c
Corrected.
... Not available (also, not applicable).
NSA not seasonally adjusted.
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402. Price $2.50 (single copy) ($8.13 foreign).
Subscription price: $27.00 per year; $33.75 for foreign mailing.
38




U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

;

1986 0—59-700


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102