Full text of Economic Indicators : April 1986
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99th Congress, 2d Session Economic Indicators APRIL 1986 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1986 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) DAVID R. OBEY, Wisconsin, Chairman JAMES ABDNOR, South Dakota, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES LEE H. HAMILTON (Indiana) PARREN J. MITCHELL (Maryland) AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS (California) JAMES H. SCHEUER (New York) FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK (California) CHALMERS P. WYLIE (Ohio) DAN LUNGREN (California) OLYMPIA J. SNOWE (Maine) BOBBI FIEDLER (California) SENATE WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR. (Delaware) STEVEN D. SYMMS (Idaho) MACK MATTINGLY (Georgia) ALFONSE M. D'AMATO (New York) PETE WILSON (California) LLOYD BENTSEN (Texas) WILLIAM PROXMIRE (Wisconsin) EDWARD M. KENNEDY (Massachusetts) PAUL S. SARBANES (Maryland) SCOTT LILLY, Executive Director ROBERT J. TOSTERUD, Deputy Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS BERYL W. SPRINKEL, Chairman THOMAS G. MOORE, Member [PUBLIC LAW 120—SlsT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237—IST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 23, 1949. Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce, Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $2.50 a single copy ($3.13 foreign), or by subscription at $27.00 per year ($33.75 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to preliminary estimtes for the first quarter, current-dollar gross national product (GNP) rose 5.8 percent (annual rate) or $57.4 billion. Real GNP (GNP adjusted for price changes) rose 3.2 percent and the implicit price deflator rose 2.5 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 4,400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 4,400 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 4,000 4,000 GNP IN CURRENT DOLLARS 3,600 3,600 \ 3,200 3,200 GNP IN 1982 DOLLARS 2,800 2,800 2,400 2,400 2,000 2,000 I 1,600 I 1978 I I 1 I 1979 I 1980 I 1981 I I I I I 1983 1982 I 1984 I I 1985 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1,600 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of current dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment 2,249.7 2,508.2 2,732.0 3,052.6 3,166.0 3,401.6 3,774.7 3,988.5 1,403.5 1,566.8 1,732.6 1,915.1 2,050.7 2,229.3 2,423.0 2,582.3 416.8 454.8 437.0 515.5 447.3 501.9 674.0 669.3 1982: m 3,179.4 3,212.5 2,065.6 2,117.0 1983: I 3,268.7 3,365.1 3,437.5 3,535.0 1984: I Period Gross national product Exports iuid imports of goods tmd services Government purch ases of goocIs and senices Federal Net exports Total ~ and Exports Imports 18.8 32.1 33.9 26.3 -5.3 -59.2 -78.5 227.5 291.2 351.0 382.8 361.9 354.1 384.6 369.9 223.4 272.5 318.9 348.9 335.6 359.4 443.8 448.4 425.2 467.8 530.3 588.1 641.7 675.7 736.8 815.4 161.8 178.0 208.1 242.2 272.7 284.8 312.9 355.4 108.9 121.9 142.7 167.5 193.8 215.7 237.0 261.9 52.9 56.1 65.4 74.8 78.9 69.2 76.0 93.6 263.4 289.9 322.2 345.9 369.0 390.9 423.9 460.0 2,221.0 2,495.2 2,740.3 3,028.6 3,190.5 3,408.0 3,707.6 3,981.1 452.2 409.6 14.5 14.1 359.9 335.9 345.4 321.9 647.1 671.8 275.3 293.2 197.3 205.4 78.0 87.7 371.8 378.7 3,188.4 3,272.4 2,146.0 2,210.1 2,254.9 2,306.3 425.0 483.7 521.2 577.6 28.4 -2.6 -19.7 -27 .4 344.6 345.0 358.0 368.8 316.2 347.5 377.6 396.2 669.3 673.8 681.1 678.6 287.1 287.0 286.0 279.2 209.4 214.5 215.8 222.9 77.8 72.5 70.2 56.2 382.2 386.9 395.1 399.4 3,311.4 3,370.6 3,440.3 3,509.5 3,676.5 3,757.5 3,812.2 3,852.5 2,358.6 2,414.4 2,439.0 2,480.1 658.8 673.3 687.9 676.2 -37.4 65.3 -61.9 72.2 375.4 382.3 391.4 389.5 412.8 447.6 453.3 461.7 696.5 735.1 747.3 768.4 285.6 314.8 318.5 332.9 228.3 235.8 236.2 247.5 57.3 79.0 82.2 85.4 410.9 420.3 428.8 435.5 3,584.4 3,688.7 3,743.9 3,813.5 1985: I n in rv 3,917.5 3,960.6 4,016.9 4,059.3 2,525.0 2,563.3 2,606.1 2,634.8 657.6 672.8 666.1 680.7 -42.3 -70.3 -87.8 -113.4 379.6 369.2 363.2 367.8 421.9 439.5 451.0 481.2 777.2 794.8 832.5 857.2 334.4 337.8 364.8 384.7 249.5 256.0 269.9 272.1 84.9 81.7 95.0 112.6 442.8 457.1 467.7 472.5 3,899.0 3,945.0 4,016.7 4,063.6 1986: I * 4,116.7 2,670.6 708.0 -95.1 378.4 473.6 833.1 354.3 266.6 87.7 478.8 4,086.9 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 rv n ni IV n ni rv Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4.1 National defense Nondefense GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS [Billions of 1982 dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Gross privat e dome stic invest nent Goverm[nent purcb ases of gooc s and senaces Ex]>orts of go ods a nd service $ Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed Change in business invento- Federal Net exports Exports Imports Total Total National Nondefense State and local Final sales 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 3,115.2 3,192.4 3,187.1 3,248.8 3,166.0 3,277.7 3,492.0 3,570.0 1,961.0 2,004.4 2,000.4 2,024.2 2,050.7 2,145.9 2,239.9 2,313.0 362.1 389.4 379.2 395.2 366.7 360.1 430.3 472.0 178.0 170.8 137.0 126.5 105.1 148.7 168.3 171.2 36.8 15.0 -6.9 23.9 -24.5 -5.5 62.7 5.7 -26.8 3.6 57.0 49.4 26.3 -19.4 85.0 -108.4 312.6 356.8 388.9 392.7 361.9 349.4 370.9 359.9 339.4 353.2 332.0 343.4 335.6 368.8 455.9 468.3 604.1 609.1 620.5 629.7 641.7 647.8 675.9 716.4 233.7 236.2 246.9 259.6 272.7 275.5 292.5 322.6 160.7 164.3 171.2 180.3 193.8 207.3 220.3 235.7 73.0 71.9 75.7 79.3 78.9 68.3 72.3 86.9 370.4 373.0 373.6 370.1 369.0 372.2 383.3 393.8 3,078.4 3,177.4 3,194.0 3,225.0 3,190.5 3,283.1 3,429.3 3,564.3 1982: HI IV 3,154.5 3,159.3 2,051.8 2,078.7 358.0 352.3 100.1 115.8 -9.4 -59.3 11.7 11.7 359.5 336.0 347.8 324.3 642.5 660.1 273.8 289.5 197.0 201.4 76.9 88.2 368.6 370.6 3,164.0 3,218.6 1983: I 3,190.6 3,259.3 3,303.4 3,357.2 2,096.4 2,137.2 2,161.8 2,188.1 337.5 346.9 363.4 392.9 127.2 145.8 161.6 160.4 42.2 -3.7 1.4 22.6 22.5 -15.0 -36.2 -48.9 342.8 342.4 353.1 359.1 320.3 357.4 389.3 408.0 649.1 648.2 651.5 642.2 279.2 277.6 277.4 267.9 203.8 206.9 206.5 211.8 75.4 70.6 70.9 56.1 369.9 370.6 374.1 374.3 3,232.8 3,263.0 3,302.1 3,334.6 1984: I 3,449.4 3,492.6 3,510.4 3,515.6 2,210.9 2,243.0 2,243.4 2,262.0 398.8 426.8 437.6 457.8 166.6 170.0 170.8 166.0 83.6 66.0 64.9 36.1 -60.6 -90.4 -88.7 -100.2 362.7 366.6 376.9 377.3 423.3 457.0 465.6 477.5 650.1 677.1 682.4 693.9 271.4 294.8 296.7 307.3 214.1 219.6 219.6 227.9 57.3 75.2 77.1 79.5 378.6 382.4 385.7 386.6 3,365.7 3,426.6 3,445.5 3,479.5 1985: I n m rv 3,547.8 3,557.4 3,584.1 3,590.8 2,288.6 2,303.5 2,329.6 2,330.4 457.2 470.9 473.7 486.5 166.7 169.6 173.1 175.5 15.8 15.1 -1.8 6.3 . -71.8 -101.1 -119.8 -140.8 368.7 358.2 353.5 359.2 440.5 459.3 473.3 500.0 691.4 699.4 729.2 745.5 304.3 305.9 331.1 349.0 226.7 231.5 243.3 241.3 77.6 74.3 87.9 107.7 387.1 393.6 398.1 396.5 3,532.0 3,542.3 3,585.8 3,597.1 1986: I " 3,619.2 2,354.8 469.1 179.6 26.0 -126.0 369.4 495.4 715.6 316.7 237.0 79.7 398.9 3,593.2 n m rv n m rv Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT [1982 — 100; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Gross j rivate domestic iiivestment Personal c onsumption expen ditures Period national product Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Nonresidential Exports an . imports of goods am1 services Gove •nment pure lases of goo ds and sennces Federal Residential fixed Exports Imports Total National defense Nondefense State and local 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 72.2 78.6 85.7 94.0 100.0 103.8 108.1 111.7 71.6 78.2 86.6 94.6 100.0 103.9 108.2 111.6 76.9 82.1 89.2 95.7 100.0 102.1 103.9 104.7 71.9 80.0 89.4 96.9 100.0 102.0 105.4 107.7 69.8 75.6 83.9 92.6 100.0 105.7 111.5 116.8 71.5 77.8 85.1 93.4 100.0 98.9 99.4 100.9 72.6 81.4 89.4 96.6 100.0 102.2 106.4 108.4 72.8 81.6 90.2 97.5 100.0 101.4 103.7 102.8 65.8 77.1 96.0 101.6 100.0 97.5 97.4 95.8 69.2 75.4 84.3 93.3 100.0 103.4 107.0 110.2 67.8 74.2 83.4 92.9 100.0 104.0 107.6 111.1 72.4 78.0 86.4 94.3 100.0 101.3 105.1 107.7 71.1 77.7 86.2 93.4 100.0 105.0 110.6 116.8 1982: III IV 100.8 101.7 100.7 101.8 100.4 100.7 100.5 101.0 100.9 102.7 100.8 100.7 100.4 99.1 100.1 100.0 99.3 99.3 100.5 101.3 100.2 102.0 101.5 99.5 100.9 102.2 1983: I 102.4 103.2 104.1 105.3 102.4 103.4 104.3 105.4 101.3 101.6 102.4 103.1 100.7 101.9 102.4 103.1 103.9 105.0 106.2 107.8 100.1 98.9 98.3 98.4 102.0 100.3 103.2 103.1 100.5 100.8 101.4 102.7 98.7 97.2 97.0 97.1 102.8 103.4 103.1 104.2 102.7 103.7 104.5 105.3 103.1 102.6 99.0 100.1 103.3 104.4 105.6 106.7 1984: I 106.6 107.6 108.6 109.6 106.7 107.6 108.7 109.6 103.4 103.9 104.1 104.2 104.5 104.8 105.5 106.6 109.2 110.8 112.5 113.5 98.8 99.2 99.6 100.1 103.6 106.5 107.6 107.9 103.5 104.3 103.8 103.2 97.5 98.0 97.3 96.7 105.2 106.8 107.3 108.3 106.6 107.4 107.6 108.6 99.9 105.0 106.7 107.5 108.5 109.9 111.2 112.7 1985: I n m rv 110.4 111.3 112.1 113.0 110.3 111.3 111.9 113.1 104.9 104.8 104.6 104.4 106.7 107.5 107.6 109.1 114.7 116.1 117.4 118.7 100.5 100.7 101.0 101.2 107.7 107.9 108.2 109.7 102.9 103.1 102.7 102.4 95.8 95.7 95.3 96.2 109.9 110.4 110.2 110.2 110.1 110.6 110.9 112.8 109.4 110.0 108.1 104.5 114.4 116.1 117.5 119.2 1986: I" 113.7 113.4 104.9 108.3 119.9 102.2 110.6 102.4 95.6 111.9 112.5 110.0 120.0 n m rv n m IV Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. CHANGES IN GNP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES [Percent change from previous period; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Ore ss national pro duct Period 1979 11.5 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982: 8.9 11.7 3.7 7.4 11.0 5.7 2.5 4.2 7.2 12.3 8.9 11.8 17.0 9.1 6.0 4.3 6.9 4.5 5.8 4.3 5.8 1983: III IV I 1984: IV I n m n m rv 1985: I 1986: IV I" Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars n m 2.5 2 1.9 -2.5 3.5 6.5 2.2 -3.2 .6 4.0 8.9 5.5 6.7 11.4 5.1 2.1 .6 3.7 1.1 3.0 .7 3.2 Implicit price deflator 8.9 9.0 9.7 6.4 3.8 4.1 3.3 5.8 3.6 2.8 3.2 3.5 4.7 5.0 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.0 3.3 2.9 3.3 2.5 NOTE.—Annual changes are from previous year and quarterly changes are from previous quarter. Personal consumption ej penditures Chain price index Fixedweighted price index (1982 W3ights) C 8.7 9.0 9.4 C 6.3 C H.O "4.3 3.5 C C 5.6 4.1 3.3 3.5 C 4.0 C 4.1 C 5.2 C 4.4 3.8 C 3.4 3.5 C C C C C 3.5 2.6 3.7 2.0 2.2 .2 1.2 1.3 4.6 4.4 3.3 2.1 5.3 3.4 8.0 4.7 5.0 4.2 5.9 .1 3.4 4.8 2.6 4.6 .1 4.3 11.6 10.6 10.S 7.1 8.5 9.3 C 9.3 6.2 4.0 4.3 3.6 5.5 4.0 3.2 3.8 4.0 4.3 5.1 4.3 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.6 2.7 3.9 2.2 Implicit price deflator Constant (1982) dollars Current dollars 8.7 8.7 6.6 8.5 10.3 5.6 12.5 8.4 9.4 9.4 9.8 4.1 6.9 7.4 6.2 6.8 4.5 5.5 Chain price index 9.2 10.7 9.2 5.7 3.9 4.1 3.1 6.2 4.4 2.4 4.0 3.5 4.3 5.0 3.4 4,2 3.4 2.6 3.7 2.2 4.4 1.1 Fixedweighted price index (1982 weights) 9.2 8.8 10.9 9.2 5.7 4.0 C 4.3 3.4 6.3 4.8 2.2 4.2 3.7 4.4 5.1 3.7 C 4.0 3.6 2.7 3.7 2.4 C 4.6 1.5 10.5 9.0 5.6 4.0 4.3 3.4 6.3 4.8 2.3 4.2 3.8 4.4 5.2 3.8 4.2 3.6 2.7 3.8 2.6 4.6 1.5 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS—OUTPUT, COSTS, AND PROFITS [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Curren i-dollar cos and profit per unit o ' output (do liars) ' Gross c omestic produ ct of nonfin ancial corporate business (billions o f dollars) Period Current dollars 1982 dollars Total cost and profit 2 Capital consumption allowances with capital consump- Corpt rate profits with inventory valuation and capital consultiption adjus tments Indirect business taxes 3 Compensation of employees Net interest Total Profits tax Profits after Output per hour of all employees (1982 dollars) Compensation per hour of all employees (dollars) adjustment 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 984 985 '. 982: HI IV 383: I n m rv 984: I II Ill IV 1985: I n mr TV 1 1,274.1 1,417.4 1,540.8 1,738.4 1,782.2 1,915.9 2,153.1 2,280.4 1,789.8 1,840.4 1,807.9 1,837.2 1,782.2 1,866.9 2,039.3 2,095.8 0.712 .770 .852 .946 1.000 1.026 1.056 1.088 0.073 .082 .095 .109 .125 .124 .119 .121 0.064 .066 .077 .090 .094 .098 .099 .102 0.473 .523 .581 .632 .676 .679 .687 .710 0.020 .024 .031 .037 .043 .039 .042 .041 0.082 .076 .068 .078 .063 .086 .108 .114 0.037 .038 .037 .035 .026 .031 .035 .029 0.044 .038 .031 .044 .037 .055 .073 .085 17.358 17.221 17.096 17.194 17.318 17.940 18.323 r 18.283 8.219 9.002 9.939 10.861 11.699 12.179 12.593 r 12.985 1,789.0 1,779.4 1,777.8 1,760.2 1,793.1 1,842.5 1,891.2 1,940.8 .127 .131 .128 .125 .124 .121 .119 .118 .119 .120 .120 .121 .121 .123 .094 .096 .096 .099 .099 .098 .098 .099 .100 .100 .100 .103 .102 .102 .679 .685 .682 .678 .676 .680 .679 .682 .691 .697 .703 .709 .709 .719 .041 .042 .040 .039 .039 .039 .039 .041 .043 .044 .043 .042 .040 .039 .065 .057 .070 .082 .092 .099 .106 .111 .107 .109 .111 .111 .120 .114 .026 .023 .023 .030 .035 .034 .038 .038 .032 .032 .029 .028 .030 .029 .038 .034 .047 .053 .057 .065 .068 .073 .075 .077 .081 .083 .090 .085 17.375 17.402 1,820.0 1,884.9 1,946.5 2,012.2 2,088.0 2,147.0 2,172.5 2,205.2 1.006 1.011 1.015 1.023 1.029 1.037 1.041 1.051 1.061 1.070 1.077 1.086 1.092 1.097 11.804 11.928 12.069 12.138 12.191 12.315 2,237.0 2,265.8 2,301.6 2,317.1 2,005.0 2,043.0 2,048.2 2,061.0 2,077.3 2,087.2 2,106.9 2,111.7 Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1982 dol- lars. 2 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left. 3 4 17.699 17.899 18.046 18.113 18.321 18.416 18.308 18.260 18.266 18.255 18.382 18.272 12.448 12.552 12.645 12.733 12.839 12.950 13.040 13.138 Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies. With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period National income Compensation of employ- Proprietor s' income with in ventory valuation tind capital consurnption adjust ments Farm 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 ' 1982: m IV 1983: I 2,203.5 2,443.5 2,518.4 2,718.3 3,039.3 3,211.3 2,528.4 2,548.2 2,603.6 2,678.9 2,747.4 2,843.5 2,967.7 3,021.1 3,064.2 3,104.4 3,155.3 3,192.2 3,228.0 3,269.9 n HI IV 1984: I n m 1985: IV I n in r rv 1986: I " 1 Rental income of persons with capital Profits wi th inventory valuation adjustmer t and witho it capital consu oiption adjus tment tion adjustment Nonfarm 1,638.2 1,807.4 1,907.0 2,025.9 2,221.3 2,372.5 1,918.4 1,931.1 1,962.4 2,001.5 2,041.8 2,097.6 2,160.9 2,204.8 2,241.2 2,278.5 2,320.4 2,356.9 2,385.2 2,427.5 20.5 30.7 24.6 14.3 32.1 21.2 22.9 28.5 18.7 11.8 6.6 20.0 44.4 29.4 27.8 26.6 26.5 22.8 12.2 23.3 160.1 156.1 150.9 178.0 201.6 221.0 151.7 159.8 167.2 175.5 182.3 187.1 195.9 199.7 204.5 206.3 212.9 218.1 225.3 227.6 6.6 13.3 13.6 12.8 10.8 13.8 12.0 15.8 13.3 14.8 11.9 11.0 11.6 11.9 10.0 9.7 11.0 13.8 14.5 15.9 2,462.4 16.0 236.4 17.8 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 5.) Corpora e profits wit i inventory valuation anc capital consunnption adjust ments 177.2 188.0 150.0 213.8 273.3 295.5 154.3 146.1 173.4 205.9 228.4 247.6 268.0 277.8 271.2 276.2 281.7 288.1 309.1 303.1 Capital consumption Net interest Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment 237.1 226.5 169.6 205.0 237.6 225.3 171.6 164.1 167.1 199.8 225.4 227.6 247.4 247.4 227.7 228.0 220.0 218.7 228.6 233.8 -43.1 -24.2 -10.4 -10.0 -5.4 -.6 -10.0 -13.4 -3.4 -9.3 -18.1 -8.9 -13.0 -5.6 -1.3 -1.6 .7 2.2 4.7 -10.1 -16.8 -14.4 -9.2 18.8 41.0 70.9 -7.3 -4.5 9.7 15.5 21.0 28.9 33.5 36.0 44.8 49.8 61.1 67.2 75.9 79.4 200.9 248.1 272.3 273.6 300.2 287.4 269.1 266.9 268.5 269.4 276.4 280.3 286.9 297.6 309.5 307.0 302.9 292.4 281.8 272.6 14.2 81.7 268.9 194.0 202.3 159.2 195.0 232.3 224.6 161.6 150.7 163.7 190.5 207.3 218.7 234.4 241.8 226.5 226.3 220.6 220.9 233.2 223.7 men Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Ketail ales of new pa ssenger cars (mi lions of un ts) Non durable gc ods Durable goods rp i 1 personal Motor Furniture and household equipment sumption expendi- Total durable goods Ill IV 1985: I II Ill IV 1,732.6 1,915.1 2,050.7 2,229.3 2,423.0 2,582.3 2,065.6 2,117.0 2,146.0 2,210.1 2,254.9 2,306.3 2,358.6 2,414.4 2,439.0 2,480.1 2,525.0 2,563.3 2,606.1 2,634.8 219.3 239.9 252.7 289.6 331.1 361.5 252.8 263.8 268.5 285.3 295.3 309.4 321.6 330.2 331.1 341.5 351.5 356.5 376.0 362.0 90.3 100.5 108.9 130.6 153.8 168.4 108.3 115.7 115.9 129.2 134.0 143.1 150.1 154.1 153.6 157.4 163.1 165.4 183.0 162.2 86.2 92.7 95.7 107.4 119.4 129.0 96.4 99.1 102.1 105.4 109.0 113.0 116.1 118.8 119.3 123.5 125.7 127.6 128.6 134.1 42.8 46.6 48.1 51.7 57.9 64.1 48.1 49.0 50.4 50.7 52.2 53.3 55.4 57.3 58.2 60.6 62.7 63.4 64.4 65.7 681.4 740.6 771.0 817.0 872.4 912.2 776.7 786.6 792.4 811.7 826.5 837.2 856.6 873.2 876.6 883.1 895.7 910.2 914.5 928.3 1986: I p 2,670.6 362.4 162.8 134.2 65.4 939.2 Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1982: III IV 1983: I n Ill IV 1984: I n Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. cles and parts Other nondurable Clothing and shoes Gasoline and oil 349.1 376.5 398.8 422.0 451.7 474.0 402.7 407.0 413.1 419.0 426.0 430.0 440.0 449.9 457.1 459.6 465.5 472.1 475.9 482.5 109.0 119.9 124.4 135.2 147.4 156.0 125.0 126.5 129.4 135.0 135.5 140.9 144.4 149.1 149.7 152.8 156.3 155.7 159.4 83.7 92.7 89.1 90.1 90.7 91.8 88.6 89.8 86.5 89.4 92.5 92.1 92.0 91.9 89.1 89.8 89.3 92.9 92.2 93.0 139.5 151.6 158.7 169.6 182.6 190.3 160.4 163.4 163.3 168.3 172.6 174.1 180.2 182.3 184.0 184.1 188.2 188.9 190.7 193.4 831.9 934.7 1,027.0 1,122.7 1,219.6 1,308.6 1,036.1 1,066.5 1,085.2 1,113.0 1,133.1 1,159.6 1,180.4 1,211.1 1,231.3 1,255.4 1,277.8 1,296.6 1,315.6 1,344.6 6.6 6.2 5.8 6.8 8.0 8.2 5.6 6.0 6.0 6.9 6.9 7.4 8.1 8.2 7.9 7.6 8.5 8.2 9.4 7.0 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.3 491.5 161.3 89.2 197.1 1,369.1 7.9 2.8 Food 146.4 Other Domestics Imports SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $5.9. billion (annual rate) in March, following a rise of $14.1 billion in February. The slowdown in March was due to subsidy payments to farmers, which declined in March following an increase in February. Excluding these subsidy payments, personal income rose $11.8 billion in March and $7.8 billion in February. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,800 3,200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,800 3,200 1,600 1,600 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS 800 800 — ,..„..**».••—• OTHER INCOME 400 400 'f Illllilllll 1982 200 1978 1979 1981 1980 \ TRANSFER PAYMENTS 200 1983 1985 1984 " SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period Total personal income age and disbursements Proprietors income 3 „ income l z Farm Nonfarm Rental income of persons 4 Personal dividend income 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1,812.4 2,033.9 2,258.4 2,520.9 2,670.8 2,836.4 3,111.9 3,293.5 1,119.3 1,252.1 1,372.0 1,510.3 1,586.1 1,675.8 1,834.9 1,960.5 107.7 122.7 138.4 150.3 163.6 179.5 193.4 206.4 27.0 31.7 20.5 30.7 24.6 14.3 32.1 21.2 149.2 160.1 160.1 156.1 150.9 178.0 201.6 221.0 9.3 5.6 6.6 13.3 13.6 12.8 10.8 13.8 43.0 48.1 1985: Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 3,258.2 3,288.6 3,271.2 3,280.5 3,290.0 3,295.5 3,309.9 3,330.8 3,347.9 3,384.3 1,930.9 1,940.5 1.946.8 1,958.5 1,959.8 1,969.3 1,981.2 1,991.5 2,003.6 2,022.2 202.2 203.5 204.8 206.1 207.3 208.5 209.5 210.5 211.5 212.4 23.8 40.4 14.4 13.8 12.2 11.6 12.9 17.5 21.0 31.4 215.2 216.9 218.6 218.8 222.1 224.8 228.9 227.2 226.9 228.7 3,386.5 3,400.6 3,406.5 2,027.0 2,033.9 2,043.5 213.3 214.3 215.3 16.2 19.6 12.1 233.9 236.4 238.9 1986: Jan r. Feb '. Mar" 1 The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees (see p. 4) in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements. ^ Consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, and welfare funds; workers' injury compensation; directors' fees; and a few other minor items. 3 With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Personal interest income Transfer payments 5 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance Nonfarm personal income 6 52.9 61.3 63.9 68.0 74.6 78.9 182.5 221.4 271.9 335.4 369.7 385.7 442.2 456.3 244.0 273.1 324.7 368.1 410.6 442.2 454.7 484.5 69.8 81.0 88.6 104.5 112.3 119.8 132.4 149.1 1,769.3 1,983.1 2,215.8 2,465.6 2,618.7 2,795.3 3,053.3 3,246.1 11.7 12.8 13.9 14.9 15.5 16.2 11.7 16.0 13.9 17.8 78.3 78.6 78.7 78.8 78.9 79.1 79.2 79.4 79.9 80.1 463.8 462.7 461.0 457.9 453.3 449.8 448.6 450.1 451.7 452.4 479.5 480.9 481.2 480.9 490.0 486.0 488.4 489.8 491.4 492.5 147.2 147.6 148.1 149.1 149.1 149.7 150.4 151.1 151.9 153.1 3,208.2 3,221.9 3,230.5 3,240.5 3,251.9 3,258.1 3,271.2 3,287.5 3,301.0 3,326.9 17.8 17.8 17.9 80.9 82.3 83.1 452.5 451.7 450.7 501.8 502.0 502.9 157.0 157.4 157.9 3,344.1 3,354.8 3,368.2 4 With capital consumption adjustment. Consists mainly of social insurance benefits, direct relief, and veterans payments. Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors' income, farm wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. 5 6 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable personal income rose again in the first quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 6,000 4,000 4,000 1986 1978 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Personal income Less: Personal tax and nontax Equals: Disposable personal income COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Less: Personal outlays * Equals: Personal saving Pere apita disposable personal inc( me Current dollars 1982 dollars Billions of dol ars 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1,812.4 2,033.9 2,258.4 2,520.9 2,670.8 2,836.4 3,111.9 3,293.5 261.1 304.7 340.5 393.3 409.3 411.1 441.8 492.7 1,551.2 1,729.3 1,917.9 2,127.6 2,261.4 2,425.4 2,670.2 2,800.8 Per capitii personal consulnption expen iitures Current dollars 1982 dollars Do lars 1,441.1 1,611.3 1,781.1 1,968.1 2,107.5 2,292.2 2,497.7 2,671.8 110.2 118.0 136.8 159.4 153.9 133.2 172.5 129.0 6,968 7,682 8,421 9,243 9,724 10,328 11,263 11,703 9,735 9,829 9,722 9,769 9,725 9,942 10,412 10,483 change in real per capita disposable Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population, including Armed Forces abroad (thousands) z Per cent 6,304 6,960 7,607 8,320 8,818 9,493 10,221 10,790 8,808 8,904 8,783 8,794 8,818 9,138 9,448 9,665 3.8 1.0 -1.1 .5 -.5 2.2 4.7 .7 7.1 6.8 7.1 7.5 6.8 5.5 6.5 4.6 222,629 225,106 227,754 230,182 232,549 234,829 237,067 239,317 Seas jnally adju sted annual rates 1982: m IV 2,683.6 2,729.2 405.0 411.1 2,278.6 2,318.1 2,122.6 2,174.9 156.0 143.1 9,786 9,929 9,720 9,749 8,871 9,068 8,812 8,904 -0.7 1.2 6.8 6.2 232,851 233,466 1983: I 2,752.8 2,805.7 2,852.4 2,934.8 407.4 418.0 404.4 414.4 2,345.5 2,387.7 2,447.9 2,520.4 2,205.2 2,271.3 2,319.0 2,373.3 140.3 116.4 129.0 147.1 10,024 10,182 10,412 10,693 9,793 9,846 9,982 10,145 9,172 9,424 9,591 9,785 8,960 9,114 9,195 9,283 1.8 2.2 5.6 6.7 6.0 4.9 5.3 5.8 233,981 234,509 235,117 235,707 3,033.8 3,083.5 3,144.2 3,186.2 423.6 433.6 447.5 462.4 2,610.2 2,649.9 2,696.7 2,723.8 2,428.7 2,487.4 2,515.2 2,559.4 181.6 162.6 181.5 164.5 11,050 11,193 11,362 11,447 10,358 10,399 10,451 10,441 9,985 10,198 10,276 10,423 9,359 9,474 9,452 9,506 8.7 1.6 2.0 -.4 7.0 6.1 6.7 6.0 236,222 236,742 237,349 237,953 n m IV 3,240.9 3,280.1 3,298.5 3,354.3 501.7 462.4 498.2 508.5 2,739.2 2,817.7 2,800.2 2,845.9 2,608.4 2,650.6 2,697.6 2,730.6 130.9 167.2 102.6 115.2 11,487 11,790 11,687 11,847 10,411 10,595 10,447 10,479 10,588 10,726 10,877 10,969 9,597 9,639 9,723 9,702 -1.1 7.3 -5.5 1.2 4.8 5.9 3.7 4.0 238,469 238,985 239,605 240,207 1986: I" 3,397.9 503.8 2,894.1 2,769.6 124.4 12,023 10,601 11,095 9,783 4.7 4.3 240,701 n m IV 1984: I n m IV 1985: I 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers to business and personai transfer payments to foreigners (net). 2 Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census). FARM INCOME In the fourth quarter of 1985, according to preliminary estimates, gross farm income rose $27.8 billion (annual rate) and net farm income rose $30.0 billion. BILLIC)NS OF DOLLA *S * (RATIO SC ALE) BILL ONS OF DOLL/VRS * (RATIO S CALE) 240 240 200 9 (VI 160 / ^ ^ . . / ^"--/ GRO SS FARM INCOME -*|' _ / 120 ^^ ^~**^ x^ 160 fin 80 60 f f N ET FARM INCC ME 40 * J *> /"* / "-. ' "\ X s X\ *•""""** / v S 1 1 ' -' ,'\ \ 1 I \ / \ N V f 40 I i | ' \ N ' " \ --- / / \ \ f\ / / 1 \ ' f 20 \ I / / » ; \ f \; I / \ / t M M \ 1 \J / ,^' 10 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 I1 I 1I 1977 1978 1979 1980 1 1 1 1 1 1982 1981 1 I'l 1 1983 1 1 1 1 1984 i 1 1985 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMEN T OF AGRICULTURE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] In come of farm ope rators from farmi "S (jross farm ineom Net farrr income Cas h marketing rece pts Total 1 Total 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1983: 1984: r HI IV " 1982 dollars 3 66.8 69.1 71.0 68.9 67.9 70.0 72.2 64.1 73.3 57.6 -10.6 -13.9 -12.9 -4.9 135.1 134.9 135.5 136.9 17.8 8.7 16.2 17.3 17.4 8.5 139.3 139.0 341.5 147.6 75.5 70.8 71.2 73.5 63.8 68.2 70.3 74.2 2.0 8.7 10.3 10.2 139.2 140.2 140.0 138.5 36.5 27.0 33.6 41.2 34.2 25.1 30.9 37.6 140.1 134.1 134.3 164.1 71.7 66.8 68.0 72.1 68.4 67.2 66.2 92.0 2.4 -1.7 -4.0 -4.8 137.0 134.9 132.8 130.6 32.5 26.9 16.2 46.2 29.4 24.2 14.4 40.8 136.3 141.8 152.9 143.6 151.7 154.3 143.2 133.0 141.2 127.6 175.7 167.3 173.7 179.8 169.5 161.9 149.0 176.8 1 Cash marketing receipts and inventory changes plus Government payments, other farm cash income, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Physical changes in end-of-year inventory of crop and livestock commodities valued at average prices during the year. Current dollars 5.8 -1.4 -10.6 7.8 I n Production expenses 27.4 31.7 20.2 29.8 24.6 15.0 I II Ill IV 1985: I r r Value of inventory changes 2 101.0 119.0 129.4 136.1 136.9 135.6 139.5 53.0 62.3 71.8 72.9 72.7 112.2 131.5 139.8 142.1 142.9 Ill IV Crops 59.2 69,2 68.0 69.2 70.3 69.4 72.7 128.4 150.7 149.6 166.0 161.6 150.6 174.0 n Livestock and products 2.1 5.0 -5.9 34.5 Income in current dollars divided by the GNP implicit price deflator (1982—100), NOTE.—Data include net Commodity Corporation loans and operator households. Sources: Department of Agriculture and Department of Commerce. 38.0 40.3 23.6 31.8 24.6 14.5 31.9 15.5 16.4 CORPORATE PROFITS In the fourth quarter of 1985, according to revised estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $5.2 billion (annual rate) and after-tax profits rose $5.6 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3201 1320 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 280 280 240 240 200 200 160 160 120' 120 . 80 ./' TAX LIABILITY 80 40 !40 UNDISTRIBUTED PROFITS 1 1 1 I 1977 1978 1979 I I I 1981 1980 I I I 1982 I I I 1 I 1 1 1984 1983 1985 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Pr )fits Profits after ta X (before t ax) with inve ntory valuati on adjustmen t ' Doinestic indust ies Total 2 Total 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 r 1982: III IV 214.1 194.0 202.3 159.2 195.0 232.3 224.6 161.6 150.7 163.7 190.5 1983: I n in IV 1984: I II m IV 1985: I n mT 1986: 1 2 IV I". i Nonfinaneial Period 207.3 218.7 234.4 241.8 226.5 226.3 220.6 220.9 233.2 223.7 180.4 159.6 173.8 131.2 164.2 200.1 192.7 133.0 121.6 136.2 161.1 174.4 185.1 201.0 212.3 193.3 193.7 189.4 189.3 203.0 189.1 Financial Total 3 27.8 21.0 16.5 11.8 22.7 19.2 22.5 152.6 138.6 157.3 119.4 141.6 180.9 170.1 12.4 18.7 120.6 102.9 22.0 25.0 22.4 21.2 114.2 136.1 20.8 20.4 17.2 18.4 19.2 22.5 23.8 24.7 152.0 163.9 180.2 191.9 176.1 175.3 170.2 166.7 179.2 164.5 See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. turing 87.5 77.1 88.5 58.0 71.3 88.5 76.6 64.3 46.8 52.3 64.6 78.9 89.2 94.2 94.9 82.2 82.7 77.3 73.4 79.7 76.1 Profits before tax Tax liability 257.2 237.1 226.5 169.6 205.0 237.6 225.3 88.0 84.8 Total Dividends Undistributed profits valuation adjustment retail trade 28.7 21.6 32.5 34.6 39.1 50.7 49.4 32.9 33.6 32.6 40.8 39.9 43.1 46.8 52.7 51.5 51.8 48.7 50.6 53.6 44.6 3 171.6 164.1 167.1 199.8 225.4 227.6 247.4 247.4 227.7 228.0 220.0 218.7 228.6 233.8 81.1 63.1 75.2 93.6 85.0 64.3 59.8 58.9 73.8 84.1 84.0 99.1 100.6 87.4 87.4 83.4 82.3 87.4 87.1 169.2 152.3 145.4 106.5 129.8 144.0 140.2 107.3 104.3 108.2 126.0 141.3 143.6 148.3 146.7 140.3 140.6 136.6 136.4 141.1 146.7 Includes industries not shown separately. Source: DeDartment of Commerce. Bureau of Eeonoi 50.1 54.7 63.6 66.9 70.8 78.1 83.5 66.6 68.5 69.3 69.6 71.1 73.1 75.3 77.5 78.9 80.7 82.0 83.1 83.9 85.0 87.6 119.1 97.6 81.8 39.6 59.0 65.9 56.7 40.7 35.8 38.9 56.4 70.3 70.6 73.1 69.2 61.3 60.0 54.6 53.3 57.3 61.7 -43.2 -43.1 -24.2 -10.4 -10.0 -5.4 -.6 -10.0 -13.4 -3.4 gg -18.1 -8.9 -13.0 -5.6 -1.3 -1.6 .7 2.2 4.7 -10.1 14.2 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to preliminary estimates for the first quarter, business fixed investment fell $12.9 billion (annual rate) from its fourth quarter level while residential investment outlays rose $6.2 billion. There was a $29.7 billion increase in inventories following a decrease of $4.3 billion in the fourth quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 800 800 700 700 -100 -100 1985 1978 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] 1^ixed investmen t private investment 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Change iii business mven ;ones Nonresidential Total Total Structures Producers' durable equipment Residential Total Nonfarm 454.8 437.0 515.5 447.3 501.9 674.0 669.3 441.9 445.3 491.5 471.8 508.3 607.0 661.8 302.8 322.8 369.2 366.7 356.3 427.9 476.2 99.5 113.9 138.5 143.3 126.1 147.6 170.2 203.3 208.9 230.7 223.4 230.2 280.2 306.0 139.1 122.5 122.3 105.1 152.0 179.1 185.6 13.0 -8.3 24.0 -24.5 452.2 409.6 461.2 469.5 360.7 354.9 140.2 137.6 220.5 217.3 100.5 114.7 -9.0 59.9 -12 A 425.0 483.7 521.2 577.6 467.7 489.2 524.0 552.1 338.0 343.0 357.3 386.8 127.6 121.5 124.7 130.5 210.4 221.5 232.6 256.3 129.7 146.2 166.7 165.4 -42.7 -5.5 2.8 25.5 -33.7 1.8 15.5 19.4 658.8 673.3 687.9 676.2 566.7 604.5 619.5 637.2 394.1 423.4 435.9 458.1 135.0 147.0 151.3 157.2 259.1 276.5 284.5 300.9 172.6 181.0 183.7 179.1 92.1 68.9 68.3 39.0 71.6 61.2 62.8 36.4 UI IV 657.6 672.8 666.1 680.7 639.1 657.3 665.9 685.0 459.6 474.2 478.5 492.5 166.1 169.7 170.4 174.5 293.5 304.5 308.1 318.0 179.4 183.1 187.4 192.5 18.5 15.5 2 -4.3 14.2 10.8 3.1 19.0 1986: I * 708.0 678.3 479.6 174.2 305.4 198.7 29.7 30.4 1982: m IV 1983: I n m IV 1984: I n m IV 1985: I n Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. -6.4 67.1 7.5 7.9 -2.4 18.3 -23.1 .8 58.0 11.8 51.1 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT According to the Commerce Department January-March 1986 survey, business spending for new plant and equipment for the year 1986 is expected to be 2.3 percent above the 1985 level. Spending in 1985 was 9.0 percent above the 1984 level. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 500 500 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 400 400 ALL INDUSTRIES 300 300 200 200 r NONMANUFACTURING -1 -MANUFACTURING 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 I 1978 1979 I I I 1980 1982 1981 I I 1983 1984 1985 _!/ PURVEYED QUARTERLY _i/SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Industries surveyed quarterly All industries Total 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 ' 1986" 217.78 254.96 282.80 315.22 310.58 304.78 354.44 386.41 395.13 78.58 95.92 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.15 151.84 1984: I II Ill IV 337.95 349.97 361.48 368.29 1985: I II Ill IV. 1986: I 4 II4 2nd h a l f 4 Period Total nonfarm business 2 Non manufactu ring Surveyed quarterly Nondurable goods Total > Mining Transportation Public utilities Commercial and other 39.46 48.50 55.36 59.81 55.35 53.08 66.24 73.14 70.99 39.13 47.42 56.96 66.73 65.33 63.12 72.58 80.01 80.86 139.18 159.04 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.26 243.28 11.22 12.81 15.99 21.39 20.05 15.19 16.86 15.88 13.89 13.36 16.05 16.60 15.84 14.79 13.97 16.52 17.97 19.02 31.50 35.63 37.74 41.21 45.43 44.96 47.48 48.74 48.50 83.09 94.56 100.14 110.24 109.63 114.45 134.75 150.67 161.88 129.91 135.96 142.44 146.96 61.23 64.03 68.26 71.43 68.68 71.93 74.18 75.53 208.04 214.01 219.04 221.33 17.24 16.38 16.82 17.00 15.29 17.01 17.49 16.28 47.08 47.94 47.92 46.92 128.42 132.67 136.80 141.13 129.91 135.96 142.44 146.96 208.04 214.01 219.04 221.33 371.16 387.83 388.90 397.74 145.65 154.33 154.04 158.57 69.87 73.96 72.85 75.87 75.78 80.36 81.19 82.70 225.51 233.51 234.86 239.16 15.66 16.51 15.94 15.40 16.22 17.50 19.09 19.06 48.46 48.47 48.14 49.89 145.17 151.02 151.69 .154.81 145.65 154.33 154.04 158.57 225.51 233.51 234.86 239.16 390.66 400.68 394.58 150.28 153.76 151.67 71.11 72.71 70.06 79.17 81.04 81.61 240.38 246.93 242.92 14.11 14.30 13.57 18.90 18.95 19.11 48.62 48.80 48.29 158.74 164.88 161.94 150.28 153.76 151.67 240.38 246.93 242.92 Durable goods 1 Excludes forestry, fisheries, and agricultural services; medical services; professional services; social services and membership organizations; and real estate, which, effective with the April-May 1984 survey, arc no longer surveyed quarterly. See last column ("nomanufacturing surveyed annually") for data for these industries. '2 "All industries" plus the part of noiunaiiufacturing that is surveyed annually. 10 Addenda Nor manufaotui ing M mufacturh >g 245 .34 284.94 314.47 349.26 347.47 343.35 398.99 Manufacturing 78.58 95.92 112.33 126.54 120.68 116.20 138.82 153.15 151.84 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Total 166.76 189.02 202.15 222.72 226.79 227.15 260.16 139.18 159.04 170.47 188.68 189.89 188.58 215.61 233.26 243.28 Surveyed annually s 27.58 29.98 31.68 34.04 36.89 38.56 44.55 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE In March, seasonally adjusted civilian employment rose 227,000 and unemployment fell 108,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 120 120 SfASONAUY ADJUS EC — _^_ — 112 — r~—*~ ^^^-^x~lf^\^ 3x^^ -^~^ — — ^---'"' /•"*•"'" — X-v 100 — r" CIV ILIAN LABOR FORCE XI -^ ^r~^S^ 104 ^ **«-— •* --— '""" — CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT 96 96 — 92 / x \ ^ 12 — . __/ 8 - 4 — 0 iniilnm X- -^-r^" ^ A — " ~- ^— " L NEMPLOYMEN T. . —- <r- 8 — Illllllllll 1978 i i i n h n i i i i i l l l l l H ! I l l l l l l l l l l Illllllllll Illllllllll 1979 1980 1982 1981 12 ^. 1983 4 1 1|| ||| 1 1 (I ||||||||||| 0 1985 1984 1986 *16 YEARS OF AGE A ND OVER SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Period Noninstitutional population including resident Armed Forces Civilian ernployment Resi- 1 h Armed . or Iprce including resident NSA Forces 1,597 1,604 1,645 1,668 1,676 1,697 1,706 1,701 1,702 1,705 1,702 1,704 1,726 1,732 1,700 1,702 1,698 1,691 1,691 1,693 106,559 108,544 110,315 111,872 113,226 115,241 117,167 117,036 116,958 117,044 116,726 116,976 117,069 117,522 117,814 117,832 117,927 118,477 118,779 118,900 Q U Employment including resident Armed Forces Civilian labor force 1983 1984 1985 1985: Mar Apr May June.... July .... Aug Sept.... Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan *... Feb Mar 166,460 169,349 171,775 173,939 175,891 178,080 179,912 179,368 179,501 179,649 179,798 179,967 180,131 180,304 180,470 180,642 180,810 181,361 181,512 181,678 100,421 100,907 102,042 101,194 102,510 106,702 108,856 108,652 108,574 108,644 108,303 108,575 108,936 109,251 109,513 109,671 109,904 110,646 110,252 110,481 104,962 106,940 108,670 110,204 111,550 113,544 115,461 115,335 115,256 115,339 115,024 115,272 115,343 115,790 116,114 116,130 116,229 116,786 117,088 117,207 1 Persons at work. Economic reasons include slack work, material shortages, inability to find fulltime work, etc. 2 Labor force as percent of noninstitiitional population (both including resident Armed forces). 3 Civilian labor force as percent of civilian noninstitutional population. Labor force partici ation rate (pe rcent) 15 Total Agricultural Part-time Total NSA 1979 1980 1981 1982 Unempk>yment Nonagricultural 98,824 99,303 100,397 99,526 100,834 105,005 107,150 106,951 106,872 106,939 106,601 106,871 107,210 107,519 107,813 107,969 108,206 108,955 108,561 108,788 3,347 3,364 3,368 3,401 3,383 3,321 3,179 3,314 3,353 3,284 3,140 3,120 3,095 3,017 3,058 3,070 3,151 3,299 3,096 3,285 95,477 95,938 97,030 96,125 97,450 101,685 103,971 103,637 103,519 103,655 103,461 103,751 104,115 104,502 104,755 104,899 105,055 105,655 105,465 105,503 for Total 6,137 5,512 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 5,334 8,312 5,421 8,384 8,384 8,400 8,423 5,402 5,550 5,278 5,328 5,413 5,299 5,241 5,295 5,294 5,275 5,158 5,301 and over economic reasons 1 3,373 4,064 4,499 5,852 5,997 weeks 1,241 1,871 2,285 3,485 4,210 8,401 8,133 8,271 8,301 8,161 2,737 2,305 2,400 2,374 2,274 2,328 2,329 2,274 2,307 2,277 2,205 8,023 2,188 7,831 2,056 2,340 2,258 8,527 8,419 Total 2 Civil3 64.0 64.1 64.2 64.3 64.4 64.7 63.7 63.8 63.9 64.0 64.0 64.4 64.8 64.9 64.8 64.8 64.6 64.7 64.7 64.8 65.0 64.9 64.9 65.0 65.1 65.1 65.1 65.2 65.2 65.2 64.9 65.0 65.0 65.2 65.3 65.2 65.2 65.3 65.4 65.4 ian * Data beginning January 1986 not strictly comparable with i irlier data because of change in estimation procedures. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In March, the seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate fell slightly to 7.1 percent and the civilian unemployment rate fell to 7.2 percent. PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) PERCENT* (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 25 /V TEENAGERS (16-19) 20 15 15 10 10 WOME N 20 YEARS AND OVER MEN 20 YEARS AND OVER Illllllllll 1982 1982 1986 1983 Illllllllll I l l l l l l l l l l Illllllllll 1984 1985 1986 'UNEMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Unemp] oyment ra te (percen t of civilian labor force in group) Period 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: Mar Apr May June .... July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar Unemployment rate, all workers 1 All civilian workers 5.8 7.0 7.5 9.5 9.5 7.4 7.1 5.8 7.1 7.6 9.7 9.6 7.5 7.2 4.2 5.9 6.3 8.8 8.9 6.6 6.2 5.7 6.4 6.8 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 6.9 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.8 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.6 7.2 7.1 6.7 7.3 7.2 By sex and age Men 20 years and over Women 20 years and over Both sexes 16-19 years White 8.3 8.1 6.8 6.6 16.1 17.8 19.6 23.2 22.4 18.9 18.6 5.1 6.3 6.7 8.6 8.4 6.2 6.3 6.1 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 6.7 6.7. 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.4 6.4 6.2 5.7 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.7 6.6 Black and other Black Experienced wage and salary workers Married men, spouse present 6.5 6.2 11.3 13.1 14.2 17.3 17.8 14.4 13.7 12.3 14.3 15.6 18.9 19.5 15.9 15.1 5.5 6.9 7.3 9.3 9.2 7.1 6.8 2.8 4.2 4.3 6.5 6.5 4.6 4.3 18.2 17.9 18.8 18.6 19.3 17.5 18.1 19.8 18.4 18.8 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.4 6.3 6.1 6.1 6.1 5.9 5.9 13.8 13.8 13.9 13.2 13.5 12.8 13.7 13.5 14.1 13.4 15.2 15.2 15.4 14.4 15.0 14.1 15.2 14.9 15.6 14.9 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 4.3 4.3 4.0 4.6 4.4 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 18.4 19.0 18.2 5.7 6.4 6.2 12.8 13.3 13.3 14.4 14.8 14.7 6.3 6.8 6.7 4.3 4.5 4.5 1 Unemployed as percent of total labor force including resident Armed Forces. 2 Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time for economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours. 12 By selected grou )S By race Women who maintain families 8.3 9.2 10.4 11.7 12.2 10.3 10.4 Fulltime workers 5.3 6.9 7.3 9.6 9.5 7.2 6.8 Parttime workers 8.8 8.8 9.4 10.5 10.4 9.3 9.3 Labor force time lost (percent) 2 6.3 7.9 8.5 11.0 10.9 8.6 8.1 6.9 6.9 9.5 9.7 10.3 10.8 11.3 10.4 10.0 9.4 6.9 6.9 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 10.0 9.5 9.4 9.0 9.3 9.6 8.8 9.0 8.2 8.2 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.1 7.9 7.9 7.8 9.9 9.9 10.1 6.4 6.9 6.9 8.4 9.4 9.1 7.6 8.1 8.1 10.3 10.7 10.8 9.9 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In March, the percentages of unemployed persons who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 5-14 weeks rose, while the percentages out of work for 15-26 weeks and for 27 weeks and over fell. The mean and the median duration of unemployment fell. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* PERCENT DISTRIBUTION* 70 70 DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT REASO M FOR UNEMPLOYMEI^JT / \ 60 60 —A v_ A/ \' \ "X~ 50 50 \ — *"»*» .X1'* • t V^ VA ' " V JOB LOSERS / — LESS THAN . 5 WEEKS —^ 40 :v 5-14 WEEKS *_N REENTRANTS 30 30 — — * 27 WEEKS AND OVER' 20 W 70 ••^ /"""'"" ~'Sv' h EW ENTRAN s \ 10 10 2—v^v 1982 1983 Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 1984 1985 1986 ' 1982 — JOB LEAVER! Illllllllll Illllllllll 0 ±x^c _^/^X ~—4^. •x--..." ,— ^ 15-26 WEEKS Illllllllll * Illllllllll 1984 1983 Illllllllll Illllllllll 1985 1986 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] He ison for anemployment: percent distributi m Dur ation of i nemplo}onent Period Unemployment (thousands) I'ercent d stributioii Stat e progra ms Numb er of ks Less than 5 weeks 5-14 weeks 15-26 weeks 27 weeks and over Average (mean) Medi- Job losers 7,637 8,273 10,678 10,717 8,539 8,312 43.1 41.7 36.4 33.3 39.2 42.1 32.3 30.7 31.0 27.4 28.7 30.2 13.8 13.6 16.0 15.4 12.9 12.3 10.7 14.0 16.6 23.9 19.1 15.4 11.9 13.7 15.6 20.0 18.2 15.6 6.5 6.9 8.7 10.1 7.9 6.8 51.7 51.6 58.7 58.4 51.8 49.8 1985: Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Get Nov Dec 8,384 8,384 8,400 8,423 8,401 8,133 8,271 8,301 8,161 8,023 42.1 41.9 42.6 41.6 42.1 41.7 42.0 41.6 42.7 42.1 29.5 29.9 30.6 30.4 30.0 30.6 30.2 30.8 30.2 30.7 12.6 12.2 12.5 12.4 12.9 12.8 12.5 12.8 11.0 12.1 15.9 16.0 14.3 15.5 14.9 15.0 15.3 14.8 16.1 15.1 15.9 16.1 15.0 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.7 15.4 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.8 7.1 7.2 6.9 7.0 6.9 6.9 1986: Jan Feb Mar 7,831 8,527 8,419 42.4 41.8 42.3 31.3 30.8 31.1 12.4 13.5 13.0 13.9 14.0 13.7 14.9 15.3 14.4 6.8 6.9 6.8 Job leavers Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted)> Reentrants New entrants 11.7 11.2 7.9 7.7 9.6 10.6 25.2 25.4 22.3 22.5 25.6 27.1 11.4 11.9 11.1 11.3 13.0 12.5 3,350 3,047 4,061 3,396 ' 2,476 2,616 488 460 583 438 '311 397 49.6 50.3 47.6 49.6 50.2 50.8 50.2 49.1 50.0 48.8 10.2 10.1 10.4 11.7 10.7 10.7 10.3 11.1 9.9 10.9 27.4 27.1 28.4 26.6 26.1 26.9 28.3 27.2 27.2 27.6 12.8 12.5 13.6 12.1 13.1 11.5 11.1 12.7 12.9 12.8 2,620 2,575 2,562 2,581 2,609 2,585 2,560 2,535 2,560 2,564 394 390 389 398 391 386 384 380 382 391 3,113 2,766 2,455 2,337 2,523 2,361 2,212 2,227 2,468 2,884 48.0 48.7 50.3 12.7 11.7 11.9 26.3 26.8 26.0 13.0 12.8 11.8 2,591 2,610 2,654 370 392 393 3,370 3,295 Weekly average, th ousands 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1 Includes State (50 States, District of C olumbia, Puerto Eico, am Virgin Is lands), ex- servicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE), and railroac (RR) programs. Also inc udes Fede ral and S ate extended benefit programs. Does not include F ederal supplemen a) comper sation pro jram. 3,837 3,410 4,594 3,775 ' 2,54:5 3,671 Source : Departn ent of Lafc or (Bureai of Labor Statistics an d Employmen and Trailling Administration). 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey rose 192,000 in March. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* (ENLARGED SCALE) MILLIONS OF PERSONS n — 100 90 24 — ^—~_ rd -y-1 1 — "" A L L f•4ONAGRICU LTURAL ESTABLISHME NTS — 80 — 16 70 ^^f~ ' 1 SERV ICE-PRODUC ING INDUSTRIES — 60 \"\ — 14 20 50 18 _ — 40 Li 111 lii ii il ii ml ii mlii ml ii ii ill mi li ii ii 1111 nh ii i|i CONSTRUCTION GO(DDS-PRODUC ING 30 INDUSTRIES \ kiiiiiim'iT liTfiliim 20 1982 Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll l||llllllll Illlllllllh 1983 1985 1984 1982 1986 1983 1984 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED "SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1985 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Thousands of wage and salary workers; 1 seasonally adjusted] Se rvice-produ( ing industn es Goods-] roducing in dustries Period 1979 1980 1981 1982 Total nonagricultural employment 11 anufacturin g Total 2 Construction Prtn Total Durable goo s Nondurable goods Total Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade trade Gover nment Finance, insurance, and real estate Services Total Federal 89,823 90,406 91,156 89,566 90,196 94,461 97,699 26,461 25,658 25,497 23,813 23,334 24,730 25,057 4,463 4,346 4,188 3,905 3,948 4,345 4,662 21,040 20,285 20,170 18,781 18,434 19,412 19,426 12,760 12,187 12,109 11,039 10,732 11,522 11,566 8,280 8,098 8,061 7,741 7,702 7,890 7,860 63,363 64,748 65,659 65,753 66,862 69,731 72,643 5,136 5,146 5,165 5,082 4,954 5,171 5,300 5,204 5,275 5,358 5,278 5,268 5,550 5,769 14,989 15,035 15,189 15,179 15,613 16,584 17,425 4,975 5,160 5,298 5,341 5,468 5,682 5,924 17,112 17,890 18,619 19,036 19,694 20,761 21,930 15,947 16,241 16,031 15,837 15,869 15,984 16,295 2,773 2,866 2,772 2,739 2,774 2,807 2,875 96,910 97,120 97,421 97,473 97,707 97,977 98,217 98,559 98,801 99,086 25,056 25,090 25,066 25,010 24,980 25,015 24,962 25,051 25,089 25,155 4,553 4,641 4,658 4,638 4,660 4,688 4,721 4,753 4,754 4,770 19,526 19,467 19,426 19,398 19,351 19,362 19,279 19,338 19,381 19,433 11,651 11,608 11,586 11,560 11,509 11,519 11,449 11,493 11,512 11,534 7,875 7,859 7,840 7,838 7,842 7,843 7,830 7,845 7,869 7,899 71,854 72,030 72,355 72,463 72,727 72,962 73,255 73,508 73,712 73,931 5,269 5,278 5,301 5,295 5,302 5,282 5,317 5,327 5,342 5,350 5,714 5,733 5,748 5,768 5,773 5,791 5,805 5,830 5,833 5,848 17,249 17,280 17,392 17,425 17,453 17,514 17,539 17,610 17,640 17,702 5,835 5,858 5,888 5,906 5,932 5,959 5,987 6,011 6,048 6,068 21,644 21,723 21,813 21,856 21,926 22,073 22,155 22,244 22,365 22,450 16,143 16,158 16,213 16,213 16,341 16,343 16,452 16,486 16,484 16,513 2,850 2,859 2,873 2,872 2,878 2,886 2,904 2,892 2,904 2,914 1986: Jan r... 99,496 Feb r... 99,649 Mar ".. 99,841 25,300 25,237 25,158 4,906 4,875 4,867 19,447 19,434 19,392 11,541 11,523 11,483 7,906 7,911 7,909 74,196 74,412 74,683 5,357 5,342 5,352 5,872 5,887 5,900 17,825 17,905 17,982 6,098 6,130 6,151 22,540 22,600 22,749 16,504 16,548 16,549 2,918 2,914 2,917 1983 1984 1985 1985: Mar.... Apr May .... June... July.... Aug.... Sept.... Oct Nov.... Dec 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers In nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed persons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 11, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial dis- putes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off; and which are based on a sample of the working-age population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. * Includes mining, not shown separately. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAIj INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] iVverage weekly Average gi oss hourly earnings hours Period Manufa cturing Total private nonagricultural ' Total Total private nonagricultural * Overtime 1977 dollars 138.9 148.5 155.4 160.7 r 165.6 9.43 9.48 9.49 9.51 9.53 9.56 9.56 9.58 9.61 9.66 164.4 164.8 164.9 165.7 165.4 165.7 166.7 166.4 167.1 168.4 94.5 94.4 94.3 94.5 94.2 94.2 94.6 94.1 94.1 94.4 3.2 2.9 3.1 3.2 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 -.7 -1.2 -.9 -.8 -1.0 .0 .4 .1 -.4 -.5 9.62 9.66 9.69 167.4 168.4 168.8 93.5 94.5 95.3 2.7 2.7 2.7 -1.0 8.67 8.71 8.74 41.0 40.6 40.7 1986: Jan r Feb r Mar'1 Current dollars 0.5 -3.1 4.0 -1.0 .9 1.6 -.1 .5 3.6 3.4 3.5 35.2 34.9 35.0 1985: Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1977 dollars 3 Current dollars 8.2 7.9 9.0 9.1 6.9 4.6 3.4 3.0 8.52 8.54 8.55 8.59 8.57 8.60 8.65 8.64 8.67 8.74 40.4 40.2 40.4 40.4 40.3 40.6 40.7 40.7 40.7 41.0 35.3 35.2 34.8 35.0 35.3 35.1 Percent chang e from a year earlie r 4 5 1977 == 100 100.5 97.4 93.5 92.6 93.4 94.9 94.8 94.3 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.6 35.2 35.0 35.1 35.1 35.0 35.1 35.1 35.1 35.0 35.1 40.4 40.2 Manufacturing 7.25 7.68 8.02 8.33 8.58 39.7 39.8 38.9 40.1 40.7 40.5 $5.69 6.16 6.66 35.8 35.7 nonagric iltural Ind ex, $6.17 6.70 7.27 7.99 8.49 8.83 9.18 9.52 3.6 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.3 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Adjuste d hourly earnin rs index2 — total private 108.2 116.8 127.3 3 .7 AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted! Percent change from a year earlier, total private n<magricultural 5 Avera 2;e gross weekly ea rmngs Period Current dollars 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan ' Feb r Mar" $203.70 219.91 235.10 $189.31 183.41 172.74 255.20 267.26 280.70 294.05 301.16 299.90 298.90 300.11 301.51 299.95 301.86 303.62 303.26 303.45 306.77 305.18 303.98 305.90 170.13 168.09 171.26 173.48 171.60 172.46 171.19 171.69 172.00 170.81 171.61 172.32 171.62 170.86 171.96 170.49 170.58 172.63 $249.27 269.34 $318.69 342.99 $130.20 138.62 288.62 318.00 330.26 354.08 373.63 385.56 380.97 381.10 383.40 384.20 384.06 388.14 389.09 389.91 391.13 396.06 394.42 392.20 394.38 367.78 399.26 426.82 442.97 456.92 462.20 465.58 465.88 460.60 454.96 459.85 459.75 466.17 464.65 459.27 458.56 469.32 444.31 448.96 147.38 158.03 163.85 171.05 176.40 177.31 177.31 176.42 178.20 177.61 176.72 176.42 177.60 176.71 177.00 177.56 177.00 176.69 177.28 4 5 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 14. Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing. Current dollar index (or earnings) divided by the consumer price index for urban waj and clerical workers (on a 1977 — 100 base). 1977 dollars Current dollars 1 Retail trade Current dollars 1977 dollars 3 2 3 Construction Manufacturing Total i rivate nonagnc altural 1 7.8 8.0 6.9 8.5 4.7 5.0 4.8 2.4 0.2 -3.1 5.8 -1.5 1.2 1.9 1.3 — 1.1 3.3 2.1 2.4 2.8 1.8 2.6 2.4 3.0 2.4 2.6 -.6 -2.0 1.5 -1.2 1.9 -.4 .3 .1 -1.0 -1.0 3.0 2.3 2.0 -.7 .0 <y Monthlv changes based on indexes to two decimal places, Based on seasonally unadjusted data. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output pe r hour of allpe rsons Period Business sector Outp u t 1 Nonfarm business Business sector 100.8 99.2 105.8 107.8 106.6 108.9 105.5 110.1 119.0 122.1 105.1 105.0 106.6 109.3 111.3 113.4 117.1 119.2 119.6 120.1 121.2 121.9 122.6 122.8 123.9 Hours of all 2 perse ns Nonfarm business sector Business sector Nonfarm business sector Compens ation per hou r 3 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real com pensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Unit lab or costs Business sector Nonfarm business sector Implic t price defla tor 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector 132.6 142.7 154.5 157.0 159.9 166.2 156.2 156.7 156.6 156.0 156.6 158.4 158.4 158.7 160.6 162.3 163.8 165.2 166.3 169.3 169.1 119.8 132.9 144.0 156.0 158.0 161.4 167.7 157.6 158.6 158.3 157.2 157.1 159.1 159.6 160.1 162.0 163.9 165.3 166.8 167.8 170.9 170.5 107.3 117.0 127.6 139.8 148.1 152.8 158.7 163.1 149.3 150.2 151.1 152.0 153.1 154.9 156.6 158.0 159.4 160.8 161.6 162.7 163.5 164.6 165.4 107.0 116.5 127.8 140.3 149.2 154.1 159.6 164.8 150.3 151.4 152.3 153.6 154.2 156.1 157.1 158.8 160.5 161.9 163.0 164.5 165.5 166.3 167.4 7.7 11.1 10.8 7.7 8.2 1.6 1.9 3.9 7.2 1.5 -.3 -1.4 1.5 4.7 -•2 .8 4.9 4.5 3.7 3.5 2.5 7.5 -.6 7.7 11.2 11.0 8.3 8.4 1.2 2.2 3.9 7.6 2.6 -.9 -2.8 -.2 5.2 1.2 1.3 4.8 4.6 3.6 3.6 2.4 7.6 -1.0 7.3 9.1 9.0 9.6 5.9 3.2 3.9 2.8 5.6 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.8 4.9 4.4 3.7 3.6 3.5 2.1 2.8 2.0 2.7 2.0 7.0 8.9 9.7 9.7 6.3 3.3 3.6 3.3 5.7 3.0 2.4 3.3 1.7 5.1 2.4 4.4 4.4 3.6 2.7 3.7 2.6 1.8 2.8 19" 7 = 100; ( uarterly ( ata seasor ally adjus ted 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 r. 1984 r 1985 . 1982: m IV 1983: I n m IV 1984: I n m IV 1985: I n mr rv .... 1986: I" 100.8 99.6 99.2 100.7 100.3 103.2 105.2 105.3 100.3 101.0 102.3 103.5 103.5 103.6 104.9 105.5 105.3 105.0 105.3 105.5 105.9 104.9 105.5 98.8 99.8 99.2 102.6 104.1 103.9 99.1 99.7 101.3 102.8 103.3 103.0 104.0 104.5 104.2 103.8 104.1 104.2 104.3 103.2 104.1 105.9 107.9 106.7 108.5 104.9 110.3 118.9 122.0 104.5 104.2 106.2 109.3 111.8 113.8 117.1 119.2 119.5 120.0 121.1 121.8 122.6 122.7 123.9 104.9 108.3 107.5 108.2 105.2 106.8 113.1 115.9 104.8 103.9 104.2 105.6 107.5 109.5 111.6 113.0 113.6 114.4 115.1 115.6 115.8 117.1 117.5 105.1 108.7 108.0 108.7 105.8 107.5 114.2 117.5 105.5 104.5 104.8 106.3 108.2 110.5 112.6 114.0 114.7 115.6 116.3 116.9 117.5 118.9 119.1 108.5 119.1 131.5 143.7 154.9 161.9 168.2 175.0 156.6 158.3 160.1 161.5 162.1 164.1 166.1 167.5 169.1 170.4 172.4 174.3 176.1 177.6 178.3 108.6 118.9 131.3 143.6 154.8 162.1 168.0 174.2 156.3 158.2 160.4 161.6 162.3 164.0 165.9 167.4 168.8 170.1 172.1 173.7 175.0 176.4 177.4 100.8 99.4 96.7 95.7 97.3 98.5 98.2 98.6 97.2 97.9 99.0 98.7 98.1 98.3 98.3 98.2 98.2 98.1 98.5 98.5 98.9 98.7 98.8 100.9 99.2 96.6 95.7 97.2 98.6 98.0 98.1 97.0 97.8 99.1 98.8 98.2 98.2 98.1 98.1 98.0 97.9 98.3 98.2 98.3 98.0 98.3 107.7 119.6 107.7 Pe rcent chan je; quarte rly data at seasonal] y adjusted annual rates 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 r 1983 r. 1984 . 1985 '. 1982: m IV 1983: I n m '.... IV '.... 1984: I n m IV 1985: I n m IV '.... 1986: I" 0.8 -1.2 -.3 1.5 — .4 2.9 2.0 .1 .3 3.0 5.1 4.9 .0 .4 5.1 2.5 -.8 -1.3 1.0 .8 1.6 -3.9 2.3 1 0.8 -1.6 -.4 1.0 -.6 3.4 1.5 -.3 .0 2.4 6.5 6.1 2.0 -1.1 3.6 2.2 -1.3 -1.3 1.0 .2 .4 -4.1 3.4 5.8 1.9 -1.1 2.1 3.1 4.4 8.1 2.6 -3.1 -.4 6.3 10.5 7.4 7.9 13.6 7.5 1.3 1.7 3.6 2.3 2.5 .4 3.8 5.9 1.8 -1.1 1.7 -3.3 5.1 7.9 2.6 -3.4 -1.2 7.6 12.2 9.6 7.3 12.1 7.2 1.2 1.8 3.6 2.3 2.6 .6 4.0 4.9 3.2 -.8 .7 2.7 1.5 6.0 2.5 -3.4 -3.3 1.1 5.3 7.4 7.5 8.1 4.9 2.1 3.1 2.5 1.5 .9 4.5 1.4 5.1 3.5 -.7 .7 -2.7 1.6 6.3 2.9 -3.4 -3.5 1.1 5.8 7.5 8.6 8.2 4.9 2.5 3.1 2.6 2.1 2.1 4.8 .6 Output refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1982 dollars. 2 Hours of all persona engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, and supplemental payments for the selfemployed. 16 8.5 9.7 10.5 9.2 7.8 4.5 3.9 4.0 7.5 4.5 4.7 3.4 1.5 5.1 4.9 3.3 4.1 3.1 4.8 4.4 4.2 3.4 1.7 4 8.6 9.5 10.5 9.4 7.7 4.7 3.7 3.7 7.5 5.0 5.6 3.1 1.8 4.0 4.9 3.6 3.4 3.2 4.7 3.8 2.8 3.2 2.4 0.8 -1.4 -2.7 1.0 1.6 1.3 -.3 .4 .1 2.9 4.4 -.9 -2.6 .8 -.2 -.3 .2 -.6 1.5 .4 1.6 -.9 .2 0.9 1.6 -2.7 -.9 1.5 1.5 -.6 .1 .2 3.4 5.3 -1.1 -2.3 -.2 -.2 .0 — .4 -.4 1.4 -.2 .3 -1.0 .9 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers. Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product. NOTE.—Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production fell 0.5 percent in March, following a decline of 0.7 percent in February. The index for March was 0.9 percent above its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) 140 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX, 1977=100* (RATIO SCALE) MU 200 _ FINAL P RODUCTS 120 180 r )EFENSE ANC) SPACE EQUIPMENT 160 100 \. Illllllllll Illllllllll lllllllllll Illllllllll 140 140 — MANUFACTURING• PRODUCT ION — DUR ABLE 120 ''/* " BUSINESS EQUIPMENT -*°^*~*v~l ^^ ' \ CONSUMER GOODS -<X"" N(DNDURABLE ^-' — fs/ 100 ,^---" ^V- \ X" r^-' x^ / 120 , _ «M-—1M--fl ^tl™^ ** \^^ ^.W Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Hll|llllll Illllllllll PERCENT* 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 111 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Illllllllll 1 Illllllllll „ 90 _MANUF/\CTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATIO N RATE _ 80 ,-* « • - •^ 70 100 60 Illllllllll I l l l l l l l l l l Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 1982 1982 1986 1983 1984 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 1985 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Period Index, 1977 = 100 1977 proportion 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dee r 1986: Jan r Feb r Mar" 1 Output as percent of capacity. 100.0 106.5 110.7 108.6 111.0 103.1 109.2 121.8 124.5 124.0 124.1 124.1 124.3 124.1 125.2 125.1 124.4 125.4 126.4 126.6 125.7 125.1 Capacity itilization rate, pe rcent * Industry prod uction indexes , 1977 = 100 To tal Indus trial produ ction Manufacturing Percent change from year earlier 6.5 3.9 -1.9 2.2 -7.1 5.9 11.5 2.2 3.3 2.8 2.3 1.6 .7 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.6 2.5 2.4 1.6 .9 Mining Total 84.21 107.1 111.5 108.2 110.5 102.2 110.2 123.9 127.1 126.3 126.6 126.6 126.7 126.9 128.2 127.7 127.2 128.4 129.1 129.9 128.9 128.3 Durable 49.10 108.2 113.9 109.1 111.1 99.9 107.7 124.8 128.2 128.0 128.2 127.9 127.6 127.9 129.4 128.3 127.7 129.2 129.9 130.6 129.0 127.8 Utilities Nondurable 35.11 105.5 108.2 107.0 109.7 105.5 113.7 122.5 125.6 123.9 124.3 124.7 125.5 125.6 126.6 126.9 126.4 127.3 128.0 129.0 128.7 128.9 9.83 103.6 106.4 112.4 117.5 109.3 102.9 110.9 109.0 110.5 109.6 109.8 110.6 108.7 108.3 108.4 108.4 106.9 107.4 107.4 104.2 103.0 5.96 103.1 105.9 107.3 107.1 104.8 105.2 110.9 113.4 113.9 113.6 113.7 113.4 110.7 110.3 113.2 112.4 112.2 116.5 113.3 115.3 115.1 Manufacturing Industrial materials 84.2 84.6 79.3 78.3 86.3 87.1 70.3 74.0 80.8 80.3 80.5 80.5 80.3 80.1 80.1 80.7 80.1 79.6 80.2 80.4 80.7 79.9 79.3 81.1 81.1 71.7 75.3 82.3 80.2 81.4 80.9 80.1 80.1 79.5 79.9 79.5 79.3 79.2 80.1 80.0 79.6 79.2 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Produ ts Mate rials ^inal produc s Intern lediate pro [ucts Equipment C ansumer go ods Period Total Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Total ' Business Defense and space equipment Total Construction supplies Busi- Total Energy supplies 1977 proportion 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 44.77 106.9 111.0 112.2 115.2 109.5 114.7 127.8 132.0 25.52 104.3 103.9 102.7 104.1 101.4 109.3 118.2 120.7 6.89 103.7 99.9 88.4 89.7 82.9 98.5 112.6 112.9 18.63 104.5 105.4 108.1 109.3 108.3 113.3 120.2 123.6 19.25 110.3 120.4 124.7 129.9 120.2 121.7 140.5 147.0 14.34 112.2 124.7 125.1 127.6 113.6 115.4 134.9 141.2 3.67 101.2 105.6 115.4 119.8 133.0 143.1 157.9 173.6 12.94 106.9 110.8 106.9 107.3 101.7 111.2 124.9 130.6 5.95 106.9 108.7 100.6 98.6 88.3 100.6 114.0 118.9 6.99 106.9 112.7 112.3 114.7 113.1 120.3 134.2 ' 140.5 42.28 105.9 110.3 105.3 107.7 96.7 102.8 114.6 114.7 11.69 101.1 104.1 105.5 104.7 101.2 98.4 104.0 104.4 1985: Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec r 130.8 131.3 131.7 131.6 131.8 133.3 133.3 131.9 133.7 134.4 119.8 119.5 120.0 120.4 120.1 121.5 121.8 120.8 122.7 124.2 113.5 111.5 111.8 112.0 111.3 114.0 112.9 111.4 115.5 116.8 122.1 122.5 123.1 123.5 123.4 124.2 125.1 124.3 125.4 127.0 145.4 146.9 147.1 146.6 147.3 149.0 148.6 146.6 148.3 147.9 140.2 142.0 141.9 140.7 141.3 143.0 142.2 139.6 141.7 141.4 169.0 170.1 171.2 173.4 173.9 175.5 177.5 178.7 180.7 180.7 128.6 129.3 130.3 131.4 130.7 132.0 132.3 131.5 132.7 132.9 116.9 117.4 118.1 119.2 119.4 121.5 121.3 120.0 120.9 120.7 138.6 139.4 140.7 141.7 140.3 140.9 141.7 141.2 142.7 143.3 115.5 115.0 114.2 114.3 113.8 114.5 114.2 114.2 114.3 115.9 106.2 105.3 105.3 105.1 103.5 102.7 103.4 104.2 102.5 105.8 1986: Jan '. Feb r . Mar' 1 134.5 133.1 131.9 123.8 123.5 122.7 116.6 116.4 113.0 126.4 126.2 126.3 148.7 145.7 144.2 143.3 141.5 140.2 179.3 176.3 177.4 134.4 133.7 134.4 123.9 122.8 123.5 143.3 143.0 115.9 115.4 115.0 103.2 103.8 103.4 1 Includes rigs and prefabs, not shown separately. [1977 = 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] No ndurable Inanufactui es Durable me nufactures Transp >rtation equipment Primary metals Lumber and products Apparel products Printing and publishing Chemicals and products 5.25 104.6 95.9 71.1 71.6 66.8 85.8 105.6 112.8 2. 30 1024 102.0 92.9 90.1 82.8 100.2 109.1 112.9 2.79 103.1 98.3 97.3 96.1 87.3 95.3 102.8 '101.8 4.54 107.8 112.7 115.1 118.6 120.2 129.8 147.9 ' 155.2 8.05 106.8 111.4 106.4 112.6 103.8 114.0 121.7 127.1 7.96 104.3 106.7 111.4 113.7 114.9 120.4 127.1 131.0 120.8 120.7 120.9 121.8 123.7 126.8 126.2 124.5 126.5 126.8 111.3 110.9 110.5 110.5 112.8 116.8 115.3 111.7 114.5 115.4 109.5 110.9 112.2 113.5 113.0 114.8 115.9 116.5 115.6 116.5 101.3 100.2 100.3 99.2 100.6 100.4 101.8 102.6 103.9 105.0 152.6 154.2 155.4 156.7 154.3 156.3 156.2 157.0 159.0 158.4 126.5 125.8 126.7 126.4 126.4 128.2 129.0 127.9 128.0 128.5 128.5 130.8 131.4 131.8 132.2 132.6 132.5 130.7 131.4 132.6 128.9 127.8 122.9 117.9 117.9 109.3 119.7 105.8 104.0 158.7 158.2 158.7 130.6 131.7 133.2 133.0 Iron and steel Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery 5.3,9 107.0 108.5 90.4 95.0 65.8 73.0 82.4 80.6 3.49 107.5 108.0 86.3 92.5 57.5 66.1 73.5 r 70.6 6.46 105.7 109.4 101.8 101.6 86.6 89.1 102.8 107.9 9.54 111.7 122.6 123.3 129.8 115.6 118.3 142.0 146.4 7.15 112.9 125.7 130.3 134.1 128.4 143.8 172.4 169.3 9.13 106.3 108.3 96.9 95.1 87.6 99.2 113.6 123.2 Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Noy Dec r . 81.8 81.4 76.4 78.3 79.0 82.0 80.3 83.1 83.6 81.7 73.2 71.9 65.4 67.6 68.7 71.6 69.7 74.4 75.3 72.0 108.6 109.1 108.3 107.4 107.3 107.8 107.5 108.4 107.9 108.8 146.5 148.9 149.1 145.6 147.5 149.2 146.5 143.0 145.6 146.0 173.1 168.9 169.3 169.5 165.7 166.1 165.1 165.1 168.9 171.9 1986: Jan r Feb r Mar" 84.7 82.8 79.9 75.5 72.6 109.3 108.3 107.7 146.2 145.0 145.0 168.3 165.0 165.0 Period Total 1977 proportion 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 18 Electrical machinery Total Motor vehicles and parts Foods NEW CONSTRUCTION [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] Constructio n contracts 2 Private Period Total new construction expenditures Eesi lential Total Commercial and industrial New housing units Total ' Other Federal, State, and local Total value index (1977=100) Commercial and industrial floor space (millions of square feet) I illions of dollars 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 * 215.9 241.9 238.0 246.7 236.9 268.7 313.0 342.4 170.0 193.1 183.0 193.3 186.1 218.0 257.8 280.0 103.8 110.5 94.5 94.1 80.6 121.3 145.1 148.2 86.2 90.1 70.4 70.2 57.7 95.7 114.6 113.4 29.6 39.9 43.8 51.3 54.6 48.7 61.9 75.8 36.7 42.7 44.7 47.9 50.9 48.1 50.9 56.0 45.9 48.8 55.0 53.3 50.8 50.7 55.2 62.3 114.0 121.0 108.0 112.0 111.0 138.0 150.0 161.0 Annual rates 1985: 1986: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct r Nov r Dec r. Jan r Feb " Mar" 334.3 333.7 341.9 339.9 343.8 344.2 343.2 346.1 344.5 343.8 351.7 276.5 274.6 282.0 276.4 278.9 279.5 279.4 282.5 282.1 281.3 286.9 356.1 360.5 288.0 293.6 146.0 146.2 146.5 142.3 147.2 148.7 146.9 148.9 150.9 149.7 150.7 152.6 155.8 Annual rates 74.7 74.0 78.5 76.5 73.5 73.3 75.0 76.8 76.4 77.4 81.9 80.5 82.4 110.3 110.8 112.6 112.0 112.2 112.8 113.4 113.8 115.6 115.2 116.6 119.1 122.3 1 Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separateiy. 2 F. W. Dodge series. 977 1,059 904 919 690 756 955 1,064 55.7 54.4 56.9 57.7 58.3 57.5 57.5 56.8 54.9 54.2 54.4 54.9 55.4 57.8 59.1 59.9 63.5 64.9 64.7 63.9 63.6 62.4 62.6 64.8 68.1 66.9 152 167 163 161 154 164 164 167 168 162 162 146 162 149 990 1,049 1,104 1,008 836 1,103 1,097 1,118 1,104 1,111 951 848 941 840 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census) and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thousands of units or homes, except as noted] New priv ate homes New private housing units Units started, by type of structun Period Total 2,020.3 1,745.1 1,292.2 1,084.2 1,062.2 1,703.0 1,749.5 1,741.8 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1 unit 1,433.3 1,194.1 852.2 705.4 662.6 1,067.6 1,084.2 1,072.4 2-4 units 125.0 122.0 109.5 91.1 80.0 113.5 121.4 93.4 5 or more units 462.0 429.0 330.5 287.7 319.6 522.0 544.0 576.1 Units authorized 1,800.5 1,551.8 1,190.6 985.5 1,000.5 1,605.2 1,681.8 1,740.8 Units completed Homes sold Homes for sale at end1 of period 1,867.5 1,870.8 1,501.6 1,265.7 1,005.5 1,390.3 1,652.2 T 1,703.3 817 709 545 436 412 623 639 r 688 1,771 1,691 1,659 1,635 1,758 1,722 1,720 1,778 1,541 1,721 r 1,762 1,774 1,725 676 698 648 684 710 745 708 681 637 r 722 r 729 359 356 355 355 354 351 348 350 353 r 353 r 349 736 709 903 353 356 339 3 414 398 336 272 251 300 356 r 349 Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 2 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.3 5.7 5.9 6.5 Seasonal ly adjusted annu al rates 1985: 1986: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan r Feb T Mar" 1 2 1,632 1,849 1,851 1,684 1,693 1,673 1,737 1,653 1,784 1,654 1,882 2,034 1,997 1,949 1,111 1,147 1,129 1,041 1,036 1,068 1,071 1,006 1,118 1,006 1,098 1,335 1,204 1,212 96 103 106 105 95 86 97 85 80 76 83 107 115 88 425 599 616 538 562 519 569 562 586 572 701 592 678 649 Seasonally adjusted. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. Series beginning 1979 not strictly comparable with earlier data. 3 New series beginning March 1979. 1,624 1,741 1,704 1,778 1,712 1,694 1,784 1,808 1,688 1,661 1,873 1,907 1,803 1,856 6.3 6.2 6.8 6.7 6.9 NOTE. — Beginning 1984, units authorized are for 17,000 permit-issuing places and for 1978-83 data are for 16,000 places. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturing and trade sales fell 1.1 percent in February and inventories were about unchanged. According to advance data, retail sales fell 0.8 percent in March following a rise of 0.1 percent in February. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 650 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* (RATIO SCALE) 200 190 — — 550 ^. = 500 =^ MANUF/iCTURING A ND TRADE INVENTORY S 450 170 — 160 150 * y—•«•->... ' RETAI A — 110 — 100 ^~ 300 250 r~n 120 AN D TRADE SA LES -- — ^ A^— \ s^ L INVENTOR ES 130 --"V"~ 350 ^- — ,' ,"' M/kNUFACTUR NG — ^-•'"' \ RETAIL SA LES — 90 "•T^x*"**^ — — 70 Illllllllll l|lllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll RATIO* 1.80 1.60 — 150 — 1.40 _ INVEN1FORY-SALEJ5 RATIO — v^n — * RE TAIL \ V* Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 1984 1983 1982 1985 1.00 Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 1983 1982 1986 1984 1985 •SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Manufact oring and tra< e ' Sales 2 Invento-3 ries ^ ^T" MAt•JUFACTURIh G tUMD TRADE 1.20 iiiiiliiin . . . . 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Wholesale Inventory-s ales ratio 4 He tail Sales *• Sales 2 InventoTotal Durable goods stores Inventories Nondurable goods stores Total 3 Durable goods stores Nondurable goods stores Manufacturing and Retail Millions of dollars, seasonally iidjusted r 1978 1979 r 1980 T 1981 r 1982 T 1983 r 1984 ' 1985 T 260,805 399,608 451,460 494,105 528,105 509,555 520,328 575,098 583,148 66,669 79,472 93,704 102,013 96,290 100,424 113,404 114,494 86,405 99,262 113,478 118,259 118,149 120,265 131,544 135,940 67,231 74,926 79,963 86,777 89,339 97,858 107,755 114,495 23,368 25,529 24,914 27,089 28,059 33,041 38,817 42,851 43,863 49,397 55,049 59,688 61,279 64,817 68,939 71,645 102,694 111,098 116,346 127,201 126,497 139,381 157,845 165,324 50,136 54,108 55,117 60,327 58,952 66,928 77,142 82,875 52,558 56,990 61,229 66,874 67,545 72,453 80,703 82,449 1.44 1.43 298,334 328,058 356,919 344,656 368,724 410,737 424,091 1.43 1.45 1.44 1.51 1.38 1.34 1.37 1.44 1.42 1.41 1.41 1.34 1.39 1.40 1985: Peb r Mar r. Apr r. May r June r July ' Aug r Sept r. Oct rr 418,218 420,003 424,616 425,582 418,543 421,524 428,015 427,691 425,689 431,326 432,797 578,541 579,123 579,256 578,037 580,137 580,318 578,635 578,742 581,516 582,381 583,148 114,022 113,759 116,588 116,712 111,073 113,301 115,146 114,344 113,675 115,762 116,852 132,917 133,267 133,203 133,667 134,931 134,949 134,869 134,410 134,810 134,831 135,940 111,935 111,941 114,519 114,232 113,599 114,430 116,276 119,118 114,785 115,433 116,861 41,341 41,400 42,980 42,787 42,444 42,768 44,209 46,748 42,355 42,631 43,882 70,594 70,541 71,539 71,445 71,155 71,662 72,067 72,370 72,430 72,802 72,979 159,478 159,685 160,004 159,470 159,528 160,333 159,078 160,302 164,262 165,557 165,324 78,275 79,033 79,071 78,679 79,143 79,205 78,042 78,425 81,668 83,056 82,875 81,203 80,652 80,933 80,791 80,385 81,128 81,036 81,877 82,594 82,501 82,449 1.38 1.38 1.36 1.36 1.39 1.38 1.35 1.35 1.37 1.35 1.35 1.42 1.43 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.37 1.35 1.43 1.43 1.41 431,957 427,261 584,968 584,853 115,648 113,235 136,624 136,551 73,162 73,574 73,461 167,987 169,066 84,755 85,508 83,232 83,558 1.35 1.37 1.43 1.44 Nov Dec r 1986: Jan r Febp Mar" 1 r 117,349 117,454 116,556 See page 21 for manufacturing. Monthly average for year and total for month. Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month. 2 44,187 43,880 43,095 r r Note.—Wholesale trade data revised beginning 1976; therefore, total manufacturing and tra< data revised beginning 1976. 3 20 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In February, manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and new orders fell, and unfilled orders rose. In March, according to advance data, durable goods shipments and new orders fell. BILLK3NS OF DOL LARS* (RATIC) SCALE) BULK )NS OF DOL ARS* (RATIC) SCALE) 200j — SHIPME NTS 160 • ""«=ar— ••* 360 — INVEN1FORIES 320 280 • ,— 24ft ~^~ 1 n 1 5 - TOTAL - DURABLE GOC)DS 120 ? " \"~ •« — TOTAL 200 •-..—._. 3 ,*—•-*"'*'* ~ d**^""^ 80 '"""**-»^ -*"' NONC URABLE GO DOS —f r~r^ 160 -7 ..... D JRABLE GOC)DS 120 60 80 NOI- DURABLE GCDODS Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 40 60 BILLIC3NS OF DOL LARS* (RATIC) SCALE) 240 _ N E W O ?DERS 200 i _i 160 H 40 .^.« Illllllllll DU RABLE GOOC)S INVEN1"ORY-SHIPA^ENTS RAT O 2.0 X>~~' « —r— \— , * 80 ~^^ 1.8 ^""^^^J*^ NOhJDURABLE G OODS •x--' llllllll|l| Illllllllll lllllllllH RATI O* 2.2 TOTAL" 120 iiiiiliiiu 1.6 •x 60 ^^v 1.4 — lllllilllll Illllllllll 40 1982 Illllllllll Illllllllll Illllllllll 1983 1984 1.2 ||lll||||ll 1986 1985 •^riiiiiiiiiM~~ _-ie~'*~^JL > f Illllllllll 1982 Illllllllll 1983 iimliini 1984 SEASONALLY ADJ STED s OURCE: DEPARTM NT OF COMMERC 1985 COUNCIL OF ECCJNOMIC ADVISERS Manufa cturers' shiprnents 1 Manufa< turers' M anufacturers new orders i inven tones 2 Durable goods Period Durable goods 1986 Durable goods Nondurable goods Nondurable goods Total Capital goods industries, nondefense Nondurable goods Manufacturers' unfilled orders 3 Manufacturers' inventory — shipments ratio 4 M.Jlions of do lars, seasoirally adjust)3d 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 67,848 76,060 77,550 83,872 76,693 84,951 98,502 103,649 59,057 67,876 76,841 84,257 82,334 85,491 91,076 91,452 210,509 241,100 264,281 282,645 264,909 260,682 285,709 281,884 137,891 160,533 174,620 186,347 175,103 171,629 191,109 189,164 72,618 80,567 89,661 96,298 89,806 89,053 94,600 92,720 131,546 147,403 156,161 167,752 157,255 173,259 191,634 195,803 72,339 79,451 79,360 83,553 74,996 87,631 100,611 104,305 19,458 23,231 23,259 24,050 20,681 22,764 27,017 27,215 59,207 67,953 76,801 84,199 82,260 85,627 91,024 91,499 259,770 302,145 323,393 319,094 296,918 330,924 355,640 363,809 1.57 1.57 1.66 1.64 1983 1984 1985 126,905 143,936 154,391 168,129 159,027 170,441 189,578 195,102 1985: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dee 192,261 194,303 193,509 194,638 193,871 193,793 196,593 194,229 197,229 200,131 199,084 101,724 102,116 102,068 102,718 102,657 102,478 105,311 103,656 106,479 107,007 105,777 90,537 92,187 91,441 91,920 91,214 91,315 91,282 90,573 90,750 93,124 93,307 286,146 286,171 286,049 284,900 285,678 285,036 284,688 284,030 282,444 281,993 281,884 192,030 192,355 192,475 191,546 192,239 192,163 192,037 191,930 190,508 190,284 189,164 94,116 93,816 93,574 93,354 93,439 92,873 92,651 92,100 91,936 91,709 92,720 193,057 191,532 191,081 195,019 198,261 195,793 198,782 197,332 195,381 196,865 201,213 102,467 99,544 99,839 102,971 106,780 104,370 107,661 106,641 104,495 103,796 107,531 29,493 27,206 25,461 25,594 27,984 26,685 27,554 29,240 27,092 25,788 30,566 90,590 91,988 91,242 92,048 91,481 91,423 91,121 90,691 90,886 93,069 93,682 359,926 357,151 354,731 355,112 359,502 361,502 363,691 366,794 364,946 361,680 363,809 1.49 1.47 1.48 1.46 1.47 1.47 1.45 1.46 1.43 1.41 1.42 1986: 198,960 196,572 105,874 105,843 103,656 93,086 90,729 280,357 279,236 188,518 187,644 91,839 91,592 201,399 198,833 24,553 28,911 27,020 92,940 91,014 366,248 368,509 1.41 1.42 1 2 3 Jan Feb" Mar" r Monthly average for year and total for month. Shipments are the same as sales. Book value, end of period. End of period. r 108,459 107,819 105,073 r 1.73 1.52 1.45 1.46 4 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 21 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES In March, the producer price index for all finished goods fell 1.1 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prices of finished consumer foods rose 0.3 percent, while prices of other finished consumer goods fell 2.3 percent. Prices of capital equipment rose 0.3 percent. INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967=100 (RATIO SCALE) 340 340 sEASONALLY ADJUSTE ) FINISHED GOODS 320 320 cc)NSUMER GOC)DS FY CLUDING FOO n<; 300 T01FAL FINISHED GOODS ^ •— 280 ./ -^*f /" V~*"^*x L^fU* ^ 260 s'/S " X>> ^ \. / "' \ '%' CONSUMER F OODS »'* ''' x\~- 280 _ / s"^~'s' >'/ 300 \ " ^^5 f 4 — '"""1 ,g»iHS£££S * 260 r—f ' CAPITAL EQL IPMENT •ft? 240 * 240 £c? 220 220 200 180 /"'''-;'// i M"fi 1 1 1 1 11 1978 200 llillllllll liinli mi 1979 1980 llillllllll llillllllll llillllllll llillllllll llillllllll llillllllll 1983 1982 1981 1985 1984 180 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [1967 — 100; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Fin shed goods P nished go ids excluding consumer foo Is Period Total finished goods Consumer foods Consumer gc ods Total Total 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985" 1985: Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov r Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar 1 195.9 217.7 247.0 269.8 280.7 285.2 291.1 293.8 292.0 293.5 294.2 293.6 294.3 293.4 291.8 294.4 296.4 298.3 296.3 291.7 288.6 207.2 226.2 239.5 253.6 259.3 261.8 273.3 271.2 272.4 270.8 268.6 268.4 270.9 269.0 266.4 270.8 273.7 275.9 274.8 270.5 271.2 190.7 213.3 247.8 273.3 285.8 290.8 294.8 299.1 296.3 298.9 300.6 299.7 299.8 299.3 298.0 300.1 301.7 303.4 301.2 296.5 292.1 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and feeds. 22 186.7 211.5 250.8 276.5 287.8 291.4 294.1 297.4 294.0 297.5 299.7 298.4 298.4 297.5 296.3 298.0 300.0 302.3 299.2 292.4 285.8 Durable 166.9 183.2 206.2 218.6 226.7 233.1 236.8 241.5 240.4 240.9 241.4 242.1 242.1 242.3 239.8 243.0 243.8 243.7 242.4 242.6 243.9 Nondurable 200.0 231.3 283.9 319.6 333.6 335.3 337.3 339.4 334.1 340.1 343.8 340.7 340.7 339.0 338.9 339.3 342.3 346.5 342.0 330.0 317.5 Internicdiate ma terials Cr jde mater als Foods and feeds * Foodstuffs and feedstuffs Total Capital equipment finished consumer goods 199.2 216.5 239.8 264.3 279.4 287.2 294.0 194.9 217.9 248.9 271.3 281.0 284.6 290.3 300.5 299.3 299.6 300.0 300.4 300.7 301.3 299.7 302.7 303.4 303.6 303.3 303.5 304.3 291.9 289.9 291.9 292.6 291.6 292.5 291.2 289.6 292.1 294.5 296.7 294.3 288.3 284.1 Total 215.6 242.2 280.3 306.0 310.4 312.3 320.0 318.7 318.6 319.3 320.0 318.5 317.8 317.4 317.2 317.5 318.6 319.7 318.3 313.8 310.0 203.1 226.1 252.6 250.3 239.4 247.9 253.1 232.7 238.4 235.4 231.5 230.7 229.7 226.5 224.9 229.4 232.3 232.9 232.6 229.2 228.8 Other Total 216.5 244.4 282.3 310.1 315.7 317.1 234.4 274.3 304.6 329.0 319.5 323.6 330.8 306.2 311.0 307.3 305.6 303.8 303.0 296.1 293.1 302.2 308.0 307.4 303.2 288.1 279.9 325.0 325.0 324.5 325.4 326.5 325.0 324.3 324.1 323.9 324.0 325.0 326.1 324.6 320.0 316.0 jartment of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 216.2 247.9 259.2 257.4 247.8 252.2 259.5 235.0 241.4 235.1 231.6 230.6 229.5 221.6 217.7 231.0 240.8 239.7 233.5 225.1 222.9 Other 272.3 330.0 401.0 482.3 473.9 477.4 484.5 459.7 461.0 462.9 464.9 461.2 461.1 456.1 454.9 455.4 453.1 453.7 453.4 424.1 403.3 CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In March, the consumer price index for all urban consumers fell 0.4 percent, seasonally adjusted (it fell 0.5 percent not seasonally adjusted). The index was 2.3 percent above its year-earlier level. INDEX, 1967= 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1967 =100 (RATIO SCALE) 220 200 180 1986 SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE^ DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCiL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967=100, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Tr ansportati on Hou sing She Her All items 1 Total ' Renters' 1982=100) Homeowners' costs (Dec. 1 wo.o 195.4 217.4 246.8 272.4 289.1 298.4 311.1 322.2 318.8 320.1 321.3 322.3 322.8 323.5 324.5 325.5 326.6 327.4 328.4 327.5 326.0 utilities upkeep Total ' Newcars Motor fuel Medical care Ener- gy 2 All items less food, energy, and shelter NSA 18.5 211.4 234.5 254.6 274.6 285.7 291.7 302.9 309.8 308.6 308.7 308.4 309.1 309.2 309.6 310.7 311.1 313.2 315.2 315.9 313.8 314.1 37,9 202.8 227.6 263.3 293.5 314.7 323.1 336.5 349.9 345.3 346.5 348.4 349.4 350.3 351.7 352.2 353.3 355.2 356.2 357.1 356.8 357.5 22.3 210.4 239.7 281.7 314.7 337.0 344.8 361.7 382.0 374.7 376.4 379.7 381.1 383.1 385.3 386.1 387.9 390.5 391.9 393.3 394.8 397.3 7.3 103.0 108.6 115.4 113.2 113.7 114.7 115.3 115.8 116.3 116.7 117.5 118.2 118.5 118.8 119.2 119.8 14.4 102.5 107.3 113.1 111.0 111.5 112.6 112.9 113.6 114.3 114.5 114.9 115.7 116.2 116.6 117.0 118.0 Includes items not shown separately. Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc. also included through 1982. 3 Relative importance, December 1985. 2 repairs Appar- 1982 = 100) NSA Rel. imp.3 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar and Fuel and other Maintenance 0.5 233.0 256.4 285.7 314.4 334.1 346.3 359.2 368.9 370.0 368.0 366.2 367.6 367.8 370.6 368.7 368.5 372.7 373.7 379.1 379.6 367.5 8.1 216.0 239.3 278.6 319.2 350.8 370.3 387.3 393.6 391.2 392.8 392.8 394.7 394.2 393.6 394.4 393.7 395.4 396.5 397.2 392.4 388.4 5.0 159.6 166.6 178.4 186.9 191.8 196.5 200.2 206.0 205.1 205.4 205.3 205.9 205.6 205.9 206.8 207.7 208.4 208.3 207.7 206.6 206.3 21.4 185.5 212.0 249.7 280.0 291.5 298.4 311.7 319.9 319.0 320.9 320.2 320.2 320.3 319.8 319.3 320.5 322.6 323.9 325.5 320.9 311.8 3.4 153.8 166.0 179.3 190.2 197.6 202.6 208.5 215.2 213.7 214.1 214.5 215.0 215.2 215.7 216.2 217.0 217.7 218.4 218.6 219.5 219.9 5.5 6.5 11.3 196.3 265.6 369.1 410.9 389.4 376.4 370.7 373.8 367.9 374.3 377.7 378.8 379.1 377.4 375.2 374.3 377.4 379.4 380.1 357.2 314.8 219.4 239.7 265.9 294.5 328.7 357.3 379.5 403.1 395.4 397.5 399.8 402.6 404.3 406.6 409.0 410.9 413.0 415.7 417.5 420.4 424.5 220.4 275.9 361.1 410.0 416.1 419.3 423.6 426.5 423.2 428.0 429.7 430.3 429.4 427.6 426.8 425.8 428.4 430.3 430.8 414.3 387.5 48.0 179.1 191.5 208.3 228.1 245.6 258.4 271.2 281.6 279.6 280.3 280.2 280.9 281.4 282.1 282.6 284.1 285.4 286.2 287.5 288.0 288.6 NOTE.—Data beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs and therefore are not strictly comparable with figures for earlier periods. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Cha nge from pr eceding peru d Change from 3 month s earlier, aim ial rate Change from 6 mont] s earlier, aim ual rate Consum r goods Consum r goods Consum r goods Period Total finished goods Capitol equipment Excluding foods Foods Total finished goods Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods Total finished Capital equipment Excluding foods Foods goods Change from year earlier, total finished goods NSA Change, Dec. o Dec., N 3A 9.2 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985" 11.7 7.4 7.5 1.4 2.1 2.3 3.5 .3 12.8 11.8 7.1 3.7 .6 1.7 1.8 8.5 7.9 7.8 17.5 14.2 8.8 11.1 11.4 13.5 8.5 4.2 -.8 .8 2.1 9.2 3.9 1.9 1.8 2.7 9.2 4.0 1.6 2.1 .9 Cl ange, month to mont h 0.0 1985: Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov ' Dec r -.2 .2 -.3 1.2 .7 .4 0 .3 -.4 .6 .7 .8 .9 -.7 -1.0 — .5 .9 .7 .6 1.7 1.1 .8 -.7 1986: Jan Feb '. Mar 0.2 -0.4 -.6 -.8 — .1 .5 .2 -.4 2.3 .3 -2.3 -3.3 -4.2 -7.1 -5.7 0.1 2.2 3.2 2.2 1.1 .1 .6 -1.1 -2.4 15.0 2.6 5.1 0.5 4.7 8.9 3.8 1.9 1.7 1.6 6.1 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.7 -.9 2.7 2.8 5.3 1.0 1.7 1.0 2.8 -.5 3.4 8.3 .1 7.2 1.6 6.0 -6.2 12.4 0.8 -2.9 -2.9 .1 4.2 9.2 _! .1 .3 -1.0 -1.6 — 1.6 -1.1 0.2 .1 .1 .1 .1 .2 -.5 1.0 .2 .1 -9.8 20.1 -4.6 -6.6 .8 .1 .9 -1.2 -2.1 -3.8 -4.5 -2.0 -3.3 -4.4 — .1 .6 1.5 3.2 0 3.8 5.7 1.4 2.9 1.1 3.6 -1.2 -2.2 0.5 2.4 .2 2.8 3.6 3.1 2.8 .7 1.0 2.6 2.9 2.8 1.6 .3 .2 2.6 3.3 2.6 1.8 .3 2.1 2.3 2.1 1.1 .9 .8 .2 1.1 1.4 1.8 .5 1.7 1.5 3.1 -3.4 -7.0 1.4 -.1 -1.4 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES—ALL URBAN CONSUMERS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Housing Tr msportati on Period All items * Food Total1 Rent- Home- costs costs Total' Fuel and other utilities parel and upkeep Total ' New cars Adden dum: All ite us, percent hange All Ap- Shelter Motor fuel Medical care Energy2 (annul Irate) items less food, energy, and shelter From previous From 3 months earlier From 6 months earlier From year earlier NSA 0 lange, December to Dec ?mber, ft SA 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 9.0 13.3 12.4 11.8 10.2 10.2 8.9 3.9 3.8 4.0 3.8 4.3 3.1 2.6 3.8 2.7 0.5 .3 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .4 .6 .4 0.1 .0 .3 9.9 15.2 13.7 10.2 11.5 17.4 15.1 5.9 3.2 n 16.0 13.6 14.5 5.5 6.8 3.6 1.6 2.9 2.0 2.9 4.3 9.9 2.4 4.7 5.2 6.0 5.1 5.9 6.3 4.5 5.1 5.9 .2 .0 .1 .4 .1 .7 .6 0.4 .3 .5 .3 .3 .4 .1 .3 .5 .3 0.4 .5 .9 .4 .5 .6 .2 .5 .7 .4 0.5 .4 .9 .5 .4 .4 .3 .7 .6 .3 0.3 .5 1.0 .3 .6 .6 .2 .3 .7 .4 0.6 .4 0 .5 -.1 .2 .2 -.2 .4 .3 .2 .3 .4 .4 .6 .3 .3 .5 .3 .3 .9 .2 3.6 3.5 4.2 9.7 1.8 4.2 1.9 6.4 6.1 6.7 1.3 -.5 .2 1.8 6.5 7.2 9.9 9.4 6.1 5.0 4.4 3.7 -.6 -.2 .8 .5 0.8 .5 .6 .7 .4 .6 .6 .5 .5 .7 1.5 1.1 .4 .1 .2 -.4 -.2 -.2 .6 .4 0.4 .3 -.0 .2 .2 .2 .2 .5 .5 .3 .2 .1 .4 -6.0 .2 -11.9 .4 .7 1.0 .1 .5 .2 .2 7.7 6.2 8.5 8.8 8.0 18.2 14.7 11.0 7.4 7.5 6.8 1.6 3.4 2.4 3.5 52.2 10.1 10.0 12.5 11.0 37.4 1.7 3.9 3.1 2.6 18.9 9.4 6.5 -1.7 2.4 3.0 18.1 11.9 7.7 11.3 13.5 10.4 6.1 3.2 4.3 3.6 Cha nge, mo nth to nlonth 1985: Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1886: Jan Peb Mar 1 — .4 Y — .1 -.4 .1 .2 1 2 -1.2 -1.0 0.4 .1 .0 .3 .1 .4 .4 .3 -.0 0.9 .6 -.2 0 .0 .2 -.2 .4 .7 .4 .3 -.5 .5 1.4 — .1 — .1 Includes items not shown separately. Fuel oil, coal, and bottled gas; gas (piped) and electricity; and motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc., also included through 1982. 3 Quarterly changes are shown in the last month o! the quarter. 24 -2.8 0.3 .2 .2 .2 .1 .2 .2 .4 .3 .3 2.7 1.7 .9 .3 .1 — .4 -3.8 -6.5 3.2 4.0 2.6 4.3 4.0 4.6 4.2 3.3 2.6 2.6 2.4 3.1 4.5 5.3 5.1 1.2 1.5 -1.9 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.4 2.8 2.9 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.8 4.1 2.9 1.6 3.9 3.2 2.3 NOTE.—Data beginning January 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeownership costs and therefore are not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers fell 0.8 percent in March. Prices paid by farmers were unchanged in February (the latest month for which data are available). INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE) INDEX, 1977= 100 (RATIO SCALE) 180 180 PRICES PAID 160 160 140 140 120 120 PRICES RECEIVED - 100 100 80 80 Illllllllll 60 Illllllllll Illllllllll 60 60 60 1986 1978 i/RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE [1977 = 100] r rices paid by farmer s Pri ses received by farm ers Period 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: Mar Apr May Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Febr Mar Livestock and products ps 115 June July 1986: All farm products 132 134 139 133 135 142 129 134 132 130 128 127 122 121 123 127 128 124 122 121 105 116 125 134 121 128 139 121 128 126 126 123 123 115 112 111 116 118 113 111 111 1 Includes items not shown separately. 2 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices paid, interest, taxes, and wage rates. 3 Not available. 124 147 144 143 145 141 146 136 141 136 134 134 130 128 128 134 138 137 135 133 131 4 All commodities, services, interest, taxes, and wage rates ' Production items, interest, taxes, and wage rates 108 123 138 150 157 160 164 163 164 164 164 164 163 162 162 162 162 162 163 163 (a) 109 125 139 151 155 159 161 157 159 159 159 158 156 156 155 154 155 155 156 155 (3) Production items 108 125 138 148 150 153 155 151 153 153 152 151 150 149 148 148 149 149 150 149 (3) Ratio 2 106 107 97 93 85 84 86 79 82 80 79 78 78 75 75 76 78 79 76 75 "74 Derived using prices paid index for February. NOTE.—The official indexes are published on a 1910-14 base as required by taw. The indexes have been converted to a 1977= 100 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK, LIQUID ASSETS, AND DEBT MEASURES Growth in Ml accelerated in March, while growth in M2 and M3 was little changed. BILLIONS Of DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,400 BILUONS OF DOLLARS*(RATIO SCALE) 3,400 300 300 1985 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS • AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES; SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE; BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Averages of daily figures, except as noted; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Period 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1985: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec ' Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Ocf Nov r Dec' 1986: Jan ' Feb r Mar" Ml M2 M3 Sum of currency, demand deposits, travelers' checks, and other checkable deposits (OCDs) Ml plus overnight HPs and Eurodollars, MMMF balances (general purpose and broker/dealer), MMDAs, and savings and small time deposits M2 plus large time deposits, term RPs, term Eurodollars, and institution-only MMMF balances 363.0 388.7 414.2 441.1 479.9 527.1 558.5 626.6 572.2 575.7 582.5 590.9 596.2 604.8 611.5 614.2 620.1 626.6 627.2 631.0 638.4 1,388.9 1,497.5 1,630.3 1,792.8 1,952.6 2,186.0 2,373.8 2,565.8 2,429.4 2,434.4 2,451.9 2,479.0 2,496.1 2,515.4 2,529.5 2,538.3 2,550.7 2,565.8 2,569.0 2,576.6 2,590.3 Consists of outstanding credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State and local governments, and private nonfmancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. 2 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. 26 Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors (montnly average) l M3 plus other liquid assets 1,646.4 1,803.2 1,987.4 2,233.6 2,443.5 2,697.3 2,986.6 3,200.9 3,046.6 3,052.0 3,069.9 3,098.0 3,113.3 3,131.4 3,151.5 3,166.2 3,181.3 3,200.9 3,224.7 3,240.8 3,258.6 1,909.0 2,114.8 2,323.3 2,593.7 2,850.1 3,163.5 3,532.3 3,837.6 r 3,611.9 r 3,617.4 r 3,636.4 r 3,665.7 r 3,683.8 r 3,711.7 r 3,740.5 3,762.4 3,799.3 3,837.6 3,860.6 3,879.4 I 1 Debt L 3,169.5 3,554.5 3,894.6 4,269.6 4,661.1 5,191.9 5,951.9 6,802.1 6,131.7 6,194.5 6,259.0 6,323.5 6,392.5 r 6,461.9 '6,526.8 6,594.0 6,680.7 6,802.1 6,905.9 6,965.0 Perce nt change from year or 6 months earlier 2 Ml 8.3 7.1 6.6 6.5 8.8 9.8 6.0 12.2 8.0 9.7 10.5 11.9 12.2 12.9 14.2 13.8 13.3 12.4 10.7 8.9 9.0 M_ NOTE.—See p. 27 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System M2 8.0 7.8 8.9 10.0 8.9 12.0 8.6 8.1 10.6 9.8 9.0 9.1 8.2 7.9 8.4 8.7 8.2 7.1 5.9 4.9 4.9 M3 11.8 9.5 10.2 12.4 9.4 10.4 10.7 7.2 10.2 8.8 7.9 7.6 6.7 6.5 7.0 7.6 7.4 6.8 7.3 7.1 6.9 Debt 13.3 12.1 9.6 9.6 9.2 11.4 14.6 14.3 14.4 14.2 13.5 12.9 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.3 13.9 15.7 16.7 16.2 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK AND LIQUID ASSETS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Other Period Demand deposits Currcncv checkable deposits (OCDs) Overnight repurchase agreements (RI's), net, plus overnight Eurodollars NSA 1978: Dec 1979: Dec 1980: Dec 1981: Dec 1982: Dec 1983: Dec 1984: Dec 1985: Dec 1985: Mar Apr Mav June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan * Feb r. Mar " 97.6 106.4 116.7 124.1 134.3 148.3 158.5 170.6 253.5 261.1 265.3 234.6 237.9 242.7 248.4 271.5 8.5 17.4 28.0 78.0 103.4 131.3 146.3 178.6 161.3 161.9 163.2 164.4 165.3 166.9 167.7 168.7 169.8 170.6 251.4 251.8 255.4 259.0 20.3 21.2 28.3 35.9 Money market mutua 1 fund baia aces General purpose and broker/ dealer NSA Institution only NSA 3.1 9.5 Money market deposit accounts (MMDAs) Savings deposits Small denomination time depos- Large denomination time depos- its' itS ' NSA Term repurchase agreements (RPs) Term Eurodollars (net) SSA NSA Shortterm Treasury securities Bankers' acceptances rCommercial paper 80.3 79.6 72.3 67.8 68.0 71.2 74.3 79.5 81.1 107.8 133.4 149.6 184.4 214.9 266.0 306.7 22.0 27.2 32.1 39.9 44.3 44.5 43.6 41.1 79.2 97.0 98.1 102.8 109.9 135.6 161.8 Savings oonds 482.0 423.9 401.4 344.8 357.9 306.6 289.7 303.6 521.5 635.3 730.2 825.1 852.8 785.2 887.5 880.3 195.1 222.1 259.0 301.8 327.8 329.9 413.9 436.5 26.6 29.5 34.0 36.0 34.5 51.8 62.2 65.7 31.8 44.7 50.3 67.5 81.7 91.5 460.2 462.5 466.4 478.1 487.2 495.2 499.8 r 504.1 r 509.5 r 512.0 289.7 289.0 290.8 293.6 296.7 299.7 300.3 302.3 303.7 303.6 885.0 887.6 889.5 890.3 888.0 880.9 878.3 875.7 876.0 880.3 421.0 425.9 425.0 422.7 418.3 421.0 425.6 429.7 432.9 r 436.5 58.7 59.8 57.7 57.1 55.7 57.1 58.5 59.5 63.0 65.7 84.7 80.9 81.4 79.2 78.8 80.0 80.2 79.4 r 79.5 r 77.6 75.3 75.7 76.1 76.5 76.7 77.2 78.0 78.5 79.0 79.5 274.8 276.0 277.4 282.6 279.9 278.1 281.3 281.4 299.5 r 306.7 515.7 516.3 520.4 304.0 304.9 306.9 886.0 890.9 895.1 447.8 451.1 450.3 68.5 70.3 71.4 77.5 80.0 81.4 79.9 80.5 303.9 307.1 0.0 .0 .0 .0 38.8 53.8 56.3 69.4 6.4 33.4 61.6 150.6 185.2 138.2 167.5 176.5 15.2 38.0 51.1 43.2 62.7 64.6 43.2 379.2 417.0 512.0 260.4 263.1 266.4 266.0 267.8 271.5 154.1 156.5 158.4 161.8 164.8 169.0 171.5 r !73.7 r 176.7 r 178.6 63.3 57.8 61.3 60.8 60.7 63.6 64.1 64.6 r 65.8 r 69.4 177.6 176.2 172.2 175.4 175.8 176.8 176.7 177.0 176.8 176.5 59.5 59.6 63.5 67.1 65.0 63.6 62.3 63.3 64.5 64.6 171.9 268.9 172.9 269.1 173.9 273.1 180.5 183.1 185.2 67.9 67.7 65.6 177.7 180.9 185.8 67.3 67.7 70.3 83.1 77.6 209.5 r 46.3 169.0 r 45.9 167.7 168.6 44.5 r 165.7 42.8 r 42.2 !71.6 42.2 ' 182.9 r 42.5 187.2 43.9 ' 192.5 r 196.4 43.1 41.1 r 209.5 210.6 208.9 41.5 42.1 CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT [Millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Net change in in stallment ere dit outstandir g1 Ins tallment credit outstanding (end of perio d) Period Total 1976:Dec r 1977:Dec ' 1978:Dec r 1979:Dec r 1980:Dec r 1981:Dec r 1982:Dec r 1983:Decr 1984:Dec r 1985:Dec r 1985: Jan r Feb r Mar T Aprr Mavr June r July r Aug r Sept r Oct r Nov r Dec r 1986: Jan ' Feb"« 1 187,782 221,475 261,976 296,483 297,667 314,321 327,173 376,239 453,580 535,098 459,843 466,690 474,989 482,532 488,862 403,253 500,039 506,090 516,420 522,978 528,621 535,098 542,753 547,727 Automobile Revolving 66,821 80,948 98,739 112,475 112,255 120,020 125,369 145,908 173,122 206,482 16,595 36,689 45,202 53,357 54,894 60,750 175,845 178,251 181,514 184,526 187,533 189,459 191,201 192,923 198,656 201,994 203,766 206,482 210,661 213,196 66,007 78,369 98,514 118,296 100,263 102,373 105,297 107,417 108,372 109,260 110,904 112,373 113,850 115,218 117,050 118,296 119,682 120,722 For year-end data, change from preceding year-( id; for monthly data, change from preceding Mobile home 15,738 16,362 16,921 18,207 19,119 20,382 20,998 22,194 24,184 25,461 24,139 24,360 24,468 24,570 24,670 24,768 25,015 25,173 25,341 25,320 25,315 25,461 25,371 25,564 Other 88,628 87,476 101,114 112,444 111,399 113,169 114,799 129,768 157,760 184,859 159,596 161,706 163,710 166,019 168,287 169,766 172,919 175,621 178,573 180,446 182,490 184,859 187,039 188,245 Total 20,739 33,693 40,501 34,507 1,184 16,654 12,852 49,066 77,341 81,518 6,263 6,847 8,299 7,543 6,330 4,391 6,786 6,051 10,330 6,558 5,643 6,477 7,655 4,974 Automobile 9,832 14,127 17,791 13,736 -220 7,765 5,349 20,539 27,214 33,360 2,723 2,406 3,263 3,012 3,007 1,926 1,742 1,722 5,733 3,338 1,772 2,716 4,179 2,535 Revolving 2,088 20,094 8,513 8,155 1,537 5,856 5,257 12,362 20,145 19,782 1,749 2,110 2,924 2,120 955 888 1,644 1,469 1,477 1,368 1,832 1,246 1,386 1,040 Mobile home Other 350 624 559 8,469 -1,152 13,638 1,286 11,330 -1,045 1,770 1,630 14,969 27,992 27,099 1,836 2,110 2,004 2,309 2,268 1,479 3,153 2,702 2,952 1,873 2,044 2,369 2,180 1,206 912 1,263 616 1,196 1,990 1,277 -45 221 108 102 100 98 247 158 168 -21 -5 146 -90 193 BANK LOANS AND SECURITIES, AND RESERVES Commercial and industrial loans rose 1.4 percent in March. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 2,000 1,800 — ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 1,600 1,400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS * (RATIO SCALE) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 -LOANS AND LEASES 600 600 400 400 U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 200 200 160 160 OTHER SECURITIES 120 120 80 60 60 1979 1978 1981 1980 1982 1984 1983 1986 1985 ' SEASONALLY ADJUSTED. SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Al commercial ban L S Depo itory institutio n s 3 1 Borrc wings (millions of dollars, unad usted) R jserves adjust 3d Period Total loans U.S. Government and securities 1978: 1979: 1980: 1981: 1982: 1983: 1984: 1985: 1985: Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dee Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb" Mar" 1,013.8 1,135.4 1,239.7 1,307.4 1,400.5 1,553.0 1,716.8 1,895.5 1,761.6 1,768.8 1,788.5 1,802.7 1,819.0 1,828.8 1,841.3 1,844.4 1,869.6 1,895.5 1,919.6 1,926.2 1,941.5 Total 2 746.9 849.1 914.5 967;4 1,032.8 1,122.7 1,316.5 1,450.3 1,355.6 1,367.1 1,380.0 1,391.0 1,402.1 1,409.2 1,416.9 1,419.7 1,433.9 1,450.3 r 1,465.4 1,470.5 1,493.0 Commercial and industrial loans 246.1 291.1 326.9 355.1 391.5 412.8 469.0 493.9 481.2 481.9 484.3 484.3 484.1 485.7 487.2 487.0 490.6 493.9 r 494.2 495.3 502.1 securities Total 137.6 144.4 170.9 179.6 202.7 260.8 260.3 270.7 267.1 261.4 266.3 267.1 271.6 271.4 273.1 270.0 275.0 270.7 264.6 270.8 268.0 1 Data are prorated averages of Wednesday figures for domestically chartered banks and averag> of month-end data for foreign-related institutions. 2 Excludes loans to commercial banks in the United States. 3 Data are averages of daily figures. 28 for changes i i res erve reqmrem ents Loans a nd leases 129.2 141.9 154.4 160.4 165.0 169.6 140.0 174.5 138.9 140.2 142.2 144.5 145.4 148.2 151.3 154.8 160.7 174.5 189.6 184.9 180.5 27.91 29.20 31.04 32.10 34.28 36.14 39.08 45.19 40.47 40.71 41.32 42.18 42.61 43.19 43.51 43.65 44.38 45.19 45.37 45.82 46.33 borrowed 27.04 27.73 29.35 31.46 33.65 35.36 35.90 43.87 38.88 39.39 39.99 40.97 41.50 42.12 42.22 42.46 42.64 43.87 44.59 44.93 45.57 Required 27.67 28.76 30.52 31.78 33.78 35.58 38.23 44.13 39.71 39.97 40.52 41.27 41.75 42.37 42.84 42.90 43.45 44.13 44.25 44.72 45.43 Total 868 1,473 1,690 636 634 774 3,186 1,318 1,593 1,323 1,334 1,205 1,107 1,073 1,289 1,187 1,741 1,318 770 884 761 Seasonal 135 81 116 54 33 96 113 56 88 135 165 151 167 221 203 172 107 56 36 56 68 NOTE.—Data beginning January 1984 are not strictly comparable with data for earlier periods, rgely because beginning January 1984 certain obligations of States and political subdivisions are cluded in loans rather than in other securities. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External Period Total Cr edit market fu nds Internal l Total Total 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1S85" 1984: I n m IV 1985: I n m IV Securities and mortgages Loans and short-term paper Other 2 Total Capital expenditures 3 Increase in financial assets Discrepancy (sources less uses) 324.5 354.0 348.6 380.8 329.4 435.1 511.3 473.5 182.3 197.6 200.1 239.5 242.3 288.1 338.1 370.4 142.2 156.5 148.5 141.3 87.1 147.0 173.1 103.1 81.0 88.2 93.0 92.2 83.5 84.7 115.4 75.3 33.3 21.0 52.1 21.8 44.0 57.3 -11.2 11.7 47.7 67.3 40.9 70.4 39.5 27.4 126.5 63.6 61.3 68.2 55.5 49.2 3.6 62.3 57.8 27.8 309.0 362.5 341.6 349.6 283.6 395.1 457.6 430.9 216.9 238.3 244.1 286.3 256.3 271.4 376.3 367.2 92.0 124.3 97.5 63.3 27.3 123.8 81.4 63.7 15.5 -8.5 7.0 31.2 45.8 40.0 53.6 42.6 532.6 521.1 462.7 528.7 324.8 334.4 343.9 349.6 207.8 186.7 118.8 179.1 113.9 92.5 85.2 169.8 -27.8 -57.6 .5 40.3 141.7 150.1 84.7 129.5 93.8 94.3 33.6 9.4 491.9 468.1 394.5 476.0 356.6 381.8 385.5 381.1 135.3 86.3 9.0 94.9 40.7 53.0 68.2 52.6 423.9 462.9 481.5 525.5 358.3 364.6 382.7 376.1 65.6 98.3 98.8 149.4 64.8 74.2 56.0 106.3 -13.4 31.6 11.2 17.5 78.2 42.6 44.8 88.8 .7 24.0 42.9 43.1 390.5 418.8 441.8 472.2 356.7 366.0 365.5 380.8 33.8 52.8 76.3 91.4 33.5 44.0 39.7 53.3 1 Undistributed profits {after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments), capita! consumption allowances, and foreign branch profits, dividends, and subsidiaries' earnings retained abroad. 2 Consists of tax liabilities, trade debt, and direct foreign investment in the U.S. 3 Plant and equipment, residential structures, inventory investment, and mineral rights from U.S. Government. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS [Billions of dollars, except as noted] C urrent liabilitie s Curren assets End of period Total Cash Governsecurities QFR-FRB series: Notes and accounts receivable Invento- Other current assets Total Notes and accounts payable Other current liabilities Net working capital ratio l 2 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1983: m IV 1984: I n m IV 1985: I n m" 1 1,043.7 1,214.8 1,328.3 1,419.6 1,437.1 1,575.9 1,703.0 1,537.3 1,575.9 1,619.5 1,650.0 1,685.9 1,703.0 1,715.9 1,725.2 1,750.5 105.5 118.0 127.0 135.6 147.8 171.8 173.6 155.0 171.8 167.6 164.9 161.3 173.6 167.9 170.6 178.6 17.2 16.7 18.7 17.7 23.0 31.0 36.2 27.5 31.0 35.4 37.2 33.0 36.2 34.7 34.1 31.1 388.0 459.0 507.5 532.5 517.4 583.0 633.1 567.5 583.0 606.4 622.6 639.1 633.1 647.4 648.5 653.2 Total current assets divided by total current liabilities. 2 Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corpo•ations, Effective mid-1982, responsibility for the Quarterly financial Report was transferred to 431.8 505.1 543.0 584.0 579.0 603.4 656.9 600.8 603.4 622.2 632.5 659.3 656.9 664.7 663.7 670.1 101.1 116.0 132.1 149.7 169.8 186.7 203.2 186.6 186.7 187.9 192.9 193.2 203.2 201.1 208.3 217.4 669.5 807.3 890.6 971.3 986.0 1,059.6 1,163.6 1,040.2 1,059.6 1,093.1 1,126.3 1,155.0 1,163.6 1,171.5 1,176.0 1,203.8 383.0 460.8 514.4 547.1 286.5 346.5 376.2 424.1 550.7 595.7 647.8 435.3 463.9 571.0 595.7 469.2 463.9 601.9 491.2 623.4 642.2 647.8 635.3 647.3 664.2 502.9 515.8 512.9 515.8 536.2 528.7 539.5 374.3 407.5 437.8 448.3 451.1 516.3 539.5 497.1 516.3 526.5 523.7 530.8 539.5 544.4 549.3 546.7 1.559 1.505 1.492 1.462 1,458 1.487 1.464 1.478 1.487 1.482 1.465 1.460 1.464 1.465 1,467 1.454 the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census from the Federal Trade Commission. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census), and Federal Trade Commission. INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates fell in April. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM SOURCE' SEE TABLE BELOW COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum] U.S. T reasury security yields Period 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1986: Jan Feb Mar r Apr" Week ended: 1986: Apr 5 12 19 26 May 3 1 3-month bills (new issues) l Constant ir aturities 2 3-year 10-year 11.506 14.029 10.686 8.63 9.58 7.48 11.55 14.44 12.92 10.45 11.89 9.64 11.46 13.91 13.00 8.57 8.00 7.56 7.01 7.05 7.18 7.08 7.17 7.20 7.07 7.04 7.03 6.59 6.06 6.35 6.19 5.84 5.86 6.08 High-grade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor's) 3 Prime commercial paper, 6 months 1 Discount rate (N.Y. F.K. Bank) 5 12.29 14.76 11.89 11.77 13.41 11.02 8.89 10.16 8.01 8.50 8.80 7.69 Prime rate charged by hanks 5 15.27 8.51 11.23 11.94 14.17 11.10 12.44 10.62 11.57 9.47 10.15 8.18 13.79 12.04 12.71 11.37 11.05 10.49 9.75 9.05 9.18 9.31 9.37 9.25 8.88 8.40 8.41 8.10 7.30 6.86 11.86 11.43 10.85 10.16 10.31 10.33 10.37 10.24 9.78 9.26 9.19 8.70 7.78 7.30 9.79 9.48 9.08 8.78 8.90 9.18 9.37 9.24 8.64 8.51 8.06 7.44 7.07 12.56 12.23 11.72 10.94 10.97 11.05 11.07 11.02 10.55 10.16 10.05 9.67 9.00 8.77 9.23 8.47 7.88 7.38 7.57 7.74 7.86 7.79 7.69 7.62 7.62 7.54 7.08 6.47 8.00-8.00 10.50-10.50 8.00-8.00 10.50-10.50 8.00-7.50 10.50-10.00 7.50-7.50 10.00- 9.50 7.50 7.50 9.50- 9.50 7.50-7.50 9.50- 9.50 7.50-7.50 9.50- 9.50 7.50-7.50 9.50- 9.50 7.50-7.50 9.50 9.50 9.50- 9.50 7.50-7.50 7.50-7.50 9.50- 9.50 7.50 7.50 9.50- 9.50 7.50-7.00 9.50- 9.00 7.00-6.50 9.00 8.50 7.03 6.82 6.59 6.94 7.39 7.31 7.10 7.35 7.21 7.33 7.28 7.34 8.74 8.75 8.66 8.90 6.82 6.53 6.30 6.34 7.00-7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00-7.00 7.00-6.50 6.50- Bank-discount basis. Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department. 3 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Series excludes public utility issues for January 17, 1984 through October 11, 1984 due to lack of appropriate issues. 2 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody's) 4 18.87 14.86 10.79 12.04 9.93 New-home mortgage yields (FHLBB) « 12.66 14.70 15.14 12.57 12.38 11.92 12.05 12.01 11.75 11.34 11.24 11.17 11.09 11.01 10.94 10.89 r 10.68 10.48 9.00- 9.00 9.00- 9.00 9.00- 9.00 9.00- 8.50 8.50- 5 Average effective rate for year; opening and closing rate for month and week. 6 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 10 years. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices rose in April. INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965=50 INDEX, DEC. 31, 1965 = 50 140 130 I— — 70 60 — 50 40 1978 PERCENT PERCENT 20 20 EARNINC3S-PRICE RATIC) ON COMMON STOCKS (S&P) 15 "'V_^ —/•r 10 15 K'V ~^1 1 1 1 i ' i 1978 1979 1 1 ' 1 1980 ' 1 1981 1 1 ^~ •^^ ^^» ^ | 1 1 1982 ' 1983 ' 10 ~- " | | 1984 I I I 1985 Co nmon stock prices 1 NCTp York Stock EM hange indexes (TJ ec. 31, 1965 = 5 O) Composite tion Common stijck yields (perce at) 5 2 Finance Utility Dow-Jones industrial average 3 Standard & Poor's composite index (194143 = 10)4 Dividendprice ratio Earningsprice ratio 68.10 74.02 68.93 92.63 92.46 108.09 78.70 85.44 78.18 107.45 108.01 123.79 60.61 72.61 60.41 89.36 85.63 104.11 37.35 38.91 39.75 47.00 46.44 56.75 64.25 73.52 71.99 95.34 89.28 114.21 891.41 932.92 884.36 1,190.34 1,178.48 1,328.23 118.78 128.05 119.71 160.41 160.46 186.84 5.26 5.20 5.81 4.40 4.64 4.25 12.66 119.64 119.93 121.88 124.11 126.94 124.92 122.35 123.65 130.53 136.77 98.30 96.47 99.66 105.79 111.67 109.92 104.96 103.72 108.61 113.52 53.91 55.51 57.32 59.61 59.68 56.99 55.93 55.84 59.07 61.69 107.59 109.39 115.31 118.47 119.85 114.68 110.21 112.36 122.83 128.86 1,268.83 1,266.36 1,279.40 1,314.00 1,343.17 1,326.18 1,317.95 1,351.58 1,432.88 1,517.02 179.42 180.62 184.90 188.89 192.54 188.31 184.06 186.18 197.45 207.26 4.37 4.37 4.31 4.21 4.14 4.23 4.32 4.28 4.06 3.88 9.07 Oct Nov Dec 103.92 104.66 107.00 109.52 111.64 109.09 106.62 107.57 113.93 119.33 Jan Feb Mar * Apr" 120.16 126.43 133.97 137.34 137.13 144.03 152.75 157.34 115.72 124.18 128.66 126.30 62.46 65.18 68.06 69.48 132.36 142.13 153.94 155.30 1,534.86 1,652.73 1,757.35 1,808.15 208.19 219.37 232.33 238.05 3.90 3.72 3.50 135.45 136.29 135.27 134.90 138.72 139.85 154.76 155.93 154.38 154.27 158.91 160.59 129.26 130.52 127.72 124.98 126.49 127.19 68.11 68.39 68.98 68.44 70.20 70.31 156.02 155.82 154.30 153.56 157.37 156.89 1,785.49 1,798.46 1,781.92 1,773.67 1,831.67 1,836.76 235.19 236.58 234.18 233.67 240.53 242.64 3.45 3.43 3.46 3.49 3.37 3.38 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1985: Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept 1986: Industrial 1986 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE A ^D STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION Period 1 1 1 11.96 11.60 8.03 10.02 8.12 8.03 Week ended: 1986: Mar 22 29 Apr 5 12 19 26 1 2 Average of daily closing prices. Includes all the stocks (more than 1,500) listed on the NYSE. Includes 30 stocks. Includes 500 stocks. Standard & Poor's series. Dividend-price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earningsprice ratios based on prices at end of quarter. 3 4 6 NOTE.—All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow-Jones & Company, Inc., and Standard & Poor's Corporation. 31 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the first 6 months of fiscal 1986, there was a deficit of $136.3 billion compared with a deficit of $130.0 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,000 RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS y 1,000 900 900 800 800 " OUTLAYS 700 700 600 600 RECEIPTS 500 500 400 400 -100 -200 -200 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1986 1985 1987 FISCAL YEARS !/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET [Billions of dollars] Total Fiscal year or period Receipts Outlays Receipts Outlays Gross Fee eral debt (end of period) Off-budget On-budget Surplus or deficit (-) Surplus of deficit (-) Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit (-) Total Held by the public 1975 1976 Transition quarter 1977 1978 1979 279.1 298.1 81.2 355.6 399.6 463.3 332.3 371.8 96.0 409.2 458.7 503.5 -53.2 -73.7 14.7 -53.6 59.2 -40.2 216.6 231.7 63.2 278.7 314.2 365.3 271.9 302.2 76.6 328.5 369.1 403.5 -55.3 -70.5 13.3 -49.7 54.9 -38.2 62.5 66.4 18.0 76.8 85.4 98.0 60.4 69.6 19.4 80.7 89.7 100.0 2.0 -3.2 -1.4 -3.9 -4.3 -2.0 544.1 631.9 646.4 709.1 780.4 833.8 396.9 480.3 498.3 551.8 610.9 644.6 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 517.1 599.3 617.8 600.6 666.5 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 851.8 -73.8 -78.9 -127.9 -207.8 -185.3 403.9 469.1 474.3 453.2 500.4 476.6 543.0 594.3 661.2 686.0 -72.7 -73.9 120.0 -208.0 185.6 113.2 130.2 143.5 147.3 166.1 114.3 135.2 151.4 147.1 165.8 -1.1 5.0 -7.9 .2 .3 914.3 1,003.9 1,147.0 1,381.9 1,576.7 715.1 794.4 929.4 1,141.8 1,312.6 734.1 777.1 850.4 946.3 979.9 994.0 -212.3 -202.8 -143.6 547.9 579.2 636.1 769.5 795.2 795.4 -221.6 -216.0 -159.3 186.2 197.9 214.3 176.8 184.7 198.6 9.4 13.2 15.7 1,827.5 2,112.0 2,320.6 1,509.9 1,714.0 1,855.7 340.3 356.9 470.3 493.2 -130.0 -136.3 252.1 262.4 382.2 405.1 -130.1 - 142.7 88.1 94.5 88.1 88.1 .1 6.4 1,715.1 1,991.1 1,418.6 1,637.5 1985 1986 1987 1 1 Cumulative total, first 6 months: Fiscal year 1985 Fiscal year 1986 1 Estimates. NOTE.—Data from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1987, Office of Management and Budget, except cumulative monthly totals from Monthly Treasury Statement. 32 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 6 months of fiscal 1986, receipts were $16.6 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were $22.9 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 400 _ INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES RECEIPTS!/ 400 „.-•—• 300 300 SOCIAL INSURANCE TAXES AND CONTRIBUTIONS 200 200 CORPORATION INCOME TAXES_ 100 100 0 0 -OUTLAYS^ - 700 700 NONDEFENSE 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 NATIONAL DEFENSE 200 200 A' 100 100 1978 1979 1981 1980 1982 1984 1983 1985 1986 1987 FISCAL YEARS J/ INCLUDES ON-BUDGET AND OFF-BUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] 0 n-budget a nd off-bud *et receip s Fiscal year Total Individual taxes Corporation Social insurance taxes an On-bud *et and of -budget 01 tlays Nationa defense Other Depart- Total 90.8 106.5 121.0 138.9 34.3 36.6 37.7 40.8 371.8 64.6 61.1 49.2 37.0 56.9 157.8 182.7 201.5 209.0 239.4 50.6 69.5 69.3 65.6 71.8 590.9 678.2 745.7 808.3 850.4 334.5 353.7 386.0 61.3 70.9 86.7 265.2 280.4 302.8 340.3 356.9 156.1 163.3 26.5 26.4 122.0 130.2 298.1 355.6 399.6 463.3 131.6 157.6 181.0 217.8 41.4 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 517.1 244.1 599.3 285.9 297.7 288.9 298.4 1985 1986 ' 1987 ' Cumulative total, first 6 months: Fiscal year 1985 Fiscal year 1986 1 617.8 600.6 666.5 734.1 777.1 54.9 60.0 65.7 Net inter- Other 22.8 26.5 60.8 61.0 61.5 66.4 73.9 85.1 93.9 104.1 26.7 29.9 35.4 42.6 82.8 93.0 114.7 119.6 23.2 26.9 27.4 28.6 30.4 32.1 39.1 46.6 52.6 57.5 86.5 99.7 107.7 122.6 112.7 118.5 139.6 156.0 170.7 178.2 52.5 68.7 85.0 89.8 111.1 131.4 133.5 125.4 122.3 118.6 6.4 6.4 15.7 17.3 15.8 19.3 7.5 7.5 18.5 20.5 Medi- 89.6 97.2 104.5 116.3 95.3 102.3 113.7 134.0 157.5 185.3 131.0 153.8 180.7 851.8 209.9 227.4 204.4 220.8 12.7 13.1 12.3 11.8 15.9 73.0 72.1 74.9 946.3 979.9 994.0 252.7 265.8 282.2 245.4 258.4 274.3 16.2 17.1 18.6 33.5 35.7 35.0 65.8 68.7 70.2 128.2 118.1 118.4 188.6 200.1 212.2 129.4 142.7 148.0 131.8 131.7 109.3 35.6 37.0 470.3 493.2 122.1 134.2 118.4 130.3 8.8 6.8 16.4 17.1 32.3 34.2 67.8 62.3 92.0 96.5 64.4 70.7 66.6 71.3 Estimates. NOTE.—Data shown here exclude the transition quarter. All data from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1987, Office of Management and Budget. Social securi- Health Defense, military butions 1976 Income securi- International 409.2 458.7 503.5 88.1 Sources: Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget. FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the fourth quarter of 1985, according to revised estimates, Federal receipts rose $12.8 billion (annual rate) and expenditures rose $38.4 billion, yielding a deficit of $226.9 billion. In the first quarter of 1986, expenditures fell $21.8 billion; receipts data are incomplete. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 1,200 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1,000 1,000 EXPENDITURES 800 800 600 600 RECEIPTS 400 400 200 200 -200 -200 1978 1979 1980 1981 1985 1984 1982 1986 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Federal G overnment expenditure s Federal Governmeiit receipts Period Total Fiscal year: 1983 1984 1985 Calendar year: 1983 1984 1985 r. 1982: HI IV 1983: I n in IV 1984: I n m IV 1985: I n ni IV ' 1986: 1" Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Contributions for social insurance Total Purchases of goods and services Transfer payments Grantsin-aid to State and local govern- Net interest paid current surplus of Government enterprises 292.9 304.0 345.2 54.5 73.6 67.6 50.2 247.0 277.6 304.0 833.5 875.6 963.2 288.2 299.5 342.2 347.4 21.2 352.2 373.0 85.7 90.7 97.8 90.6 54.9 56.4 109.7 128.7 23.5 21.4 658.1 725.1 784.7 630.3 633.1 295.0 311.3 350.7 298.1 303.0 297.1 304.2 286.2 292.5 297.8 303.9 315.7 327.8 363.9 321.3 355.4 362.1 355.9 59.3 74.4 67.1 50.1 46.4 46.5 58.2 66.4 66.1 78.9 80.1 69.4 69.2 65.9 65.0 68.9 68.5 51.6 55.8 57.0 47.1 47.6 46.3 52.8 53.7 53.6 54.6 55.8 56.7 56.2 55.5 60.2 55.4 56.9 61.8 252.2 283.6 309.9 235.0 236.1 246.5 250.1 253.4 258.8 278.1 282.0 285.4 288.9 304.4 308.4 311.0 315.9 323.4 837.5 898.0 984.7 789.1 835.7 824.2 835.8 839.4 850.6 867.2 884.9 905.2 934.7 952.4 964.0 992.0 1,030.4 1,008.6 284.8 312.9 355.4 275.3 293.2 287.1 287.0 286.0 279.2 285.6 314.8 318.5 332.9 334.4 337.8 364.8 384.7 354.3 348.5 355.1 379.8 329.1 347.4 344.4 350.8 346.6 352.3 350.5 351.9 356.2 361.9 374.1 376.7 383.5 384.8 388.4 86.2 93.6 99.0 83.3 84.5 85.8 85.8 87.1 86.2 91.3 93.0 93.0 97.3 95.7 97.6 100.6 102.0 109.6 94.3 115.5 129.2 87.1 87.2 88.0 91.1 96.8 101.2 107.2 110.4 119.5 124.8 126.4 130.1 127.1 133.0 134.7 23.2 21.1 21.1 14.3 23.4 18.8 19.8 22.5 31.6 32.7 15.1 18.0 18.5 21.9 20.9 15.9 25.9 21.5 636.3 665.2 659.7 671.1 709.4 721.8 727.1 742.1 789.7 754.9 790.7 803.5 or deficit Subsidies 644.6 710.1 773.1 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysi 34 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Wage accruals less disbursements national income and product accounts 0.4 -.1 .1 -188.9 -165.5 -190.1 -.4 .2 -.2 .0 .0 .0 -1.3 -.4 .0 -179.4 -172.9 -200.0 - 158.8 -202.6 -187.9 -170.6 -179.7 -179.5 -157.8 -163.0 -178.1 -192.7 -162.6 -209.1 -201.3 -226.9 .2 .2 .0 .6 .1 -1.0 .0 .0 .0 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES—MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Industrial reduction (1977 = 1 X); seasonal f adjusted Period United States Germany Italy 107 107 108.7 107 106 103 101 102 105 106 107 105 102 103 106 112 114.7 112.1 109.6 103.9 107.1 108.4 100 96 98 101 103 108 217.4 246.8 272.4 289.1 298.4 311.1 322.2 140.8 144.5 148.2 145.1 147.8 146.0 144.6 145.7 144.1 r 145.1 107 104 105 104 108 108 105 107 109 104 110 110 111 113 116 112 112 116 r 117 no 112.0 107.2 108.3 111.3 107.2 107.6 110.1 106.5 110.4 * 106.4 108 109 109 108 108 108 110 109 110 108 144.4 103 113 108.5 109 France 113.7 103.1 109.2 121.8 124.5 109.8 108.1 109.0 97.4 102.9 112.0 116.8 118.9 120.1 120.6 124.7 138.4 144.8 1985: Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 124.0 124.1 124.1 124.3 124.1 125.2 125.1 124.4 125.4 ' 126.4 114.2 115.0 115.0 116.4 118.1 118.1 118.0 119.1 ' 119.9 ' 120.0 1986: Jan Peb Mar* ' 126.6 125.7 125.1 120.1 1979 110.7 108.6 111.0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985" 1 Canada Consume r prices (1 967=100) United Kingdom Japan Data relate to all urban consumers. United States ' Canada United Kingdom Japan France Germany 221.0 243.5 273.9 303.5 321.0 335.0 348.3 261.3 282.3 296.2 304.1 309.7 316.6 323.0 259.1 294.2 332.7 373.1 407.9 439.5 465.1 166.9 175.8 186.9 196.8 203.3 208.2 212.7 328.5 398.0 472.4 549.4 631.8 698.8 764.7 359.0 423.6 473.9 514.7 538.3 565.1 599.4 318.8 320.1 321.3 322.3 322.8 323.5 324.5 325.5 326.6 327.4 344.3 345.7 346.5 348.3 349.5 350.1 350.5 351.7 353.1 354.7 320.2 321.9 323.3 323.5 323.8 320.7 323.8 328.4 325.0 325.2 459.0 462.2 464.5 466.4 468.2 468.7 469.2 470.6 471.5 472.1 212.6 212.9 213.1 213.3 212.9 212.2 212.6 212.9 213.3 213.5 749.4 756.1 760.6 764.4 766.7 768.2 771.3 780.6 786.1 791.6 588.1 600.6 603.4 604.7 603.5 605.1 604.8 605.8 607.9 608.7 328.4 327.5 326.0 356.3 357.7 358.5 325.8 324.4 472.6 471.7 213.8 213.3 795.6 610.0 612.2 613.0 Italy Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Trade Administration). U.S. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS [Millions of dollars; monthly data for statistical month, not seasonally adjusted'] Merc handise expo ts J Total foreign exports Total 2 Food, beverages, and tobacco Crude materials and fuels Mercha ndise trade balance Merc randise im] orts Domestic exports Manu factured goods Total 2 Ger eral import s 3 Exports Exports Exports Crude materials and fuels less imports {customs value) less imports (f.a.s.) less imports (c.i.f.) -2,430 -2,590 -2,300 -2,020 -3,265 -3,530 -3,364 -3,030 Food, beverages, and tobacco factured goods Total (c.i.f. value) I .a.s. valu e Monthly average: 1977 1978 1979 1980 10,103 11,973 15,155 18,386 9,919 11,762 14,886 18,043 1,330 1,717 2,049 2,534 1,548 1,746 2,352 2,810 6,679 7,873 9,716 11,991 12,533 14,563 17,455 20,406 1,186 1,312 1,478 1,546 4,463 6,379 4,325 5,949 7,831 8,360 9,352 10,427 13,368 15,504 18,519 21,415 Customs value 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 19,473 17,683 16,707 18,155 17,762 19,075 17,256 16,326 17,670 17,244 2,767 2,248 2,248 2,276 1,852 2,752 2,793 2,463 2,624 2,362 12,857 11,643 11,034 11,929 12,115 21,748 20,329 21,504 27,144 28,773 1,529 1,485 1,568 1,802 1,865 7,739 6,200 5,670 6,063 5,415 11,873 12,002 13,621 18,460 20,565 22,779 -2,275 21,240 -2,647 22,490 -4,797 28,431 -8,988 30,136 -11,011 -3,306 -3,558 -5,783 -10,276 12,373 1985: Jan' Peb' Mar' Apr* May' June* July* Aug* Sept* Oct* Nov* Dec* 18,673 17,143 20,330 17,973 18,337 18,012 16,727 16,584 17,034 17,618 17,721 16,994 18,124 16,648 19,765 17,492 17,816 17,433 16,172 16,106 16,543 17,122 17,227 16,479 2,161 1,995 1,973 1,913 1,603 1,614 1,604 1,783 1,709 1,836 2,128 1,907 2,671 2,580 2,562 2,441 2,261 2,122 2,033 2,258 2,115 2,285 2,559 2,459 12,445 11,218 14,245 12,228 12,992 12,759 11,556 11,233 11,700 12,102 11,688 11,221 28,836 25,941 28,725 28,572 29,302 30,136 27,000 26,247 31,349 28,429 30,010 30,728 1,932 1,817 2,128 1,804 1,919 1,912 1,641 1,719 1,903 1,598 1,865 2,138 5,344 4,906 4,383 5,772 5,700 6,054 5,085 4,851 5,562 5,656 5,657 6,011 20,448 18,385 21,301 20,080 20,725 21,268 19,286 18,916 22,887 20,271 21,557 21,654 30,245 27,169 30,107 29,907 30,712 31,596 28,312 27,512 32,860 29,695 31,371 32,141 -10,163 8,798 -8,395 10,599 -10,965 — 12,124 -10,274 9,663 -14,315 — 10,811 -12,290 -13,734 11,572 - 10,026 9,777 -11,935 12,375 -13,584 11,585 -10,927 -15,826 -12,077 -13,651 -15,146 1986: Jan* Feb* 17,006 17,735 16,501 17,164 1,797 1,689 2,467 2,367 11,393 12,182 32,005 28,895 2,215 1,908 6,234 4,741 22,477 21,289 14,999 33,465 30,225 -11,161 16,459 -12,491 1 Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginning January 1978. 2 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind. 3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. NOTE.—Imports on c.i.f. basis beginning 1982 not strictly comparable with earlier periods. Data beginning 1980 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands, except that for 1980 Virgin Is- lands exports are reflected in the figures for domestic and foreign exports combined and trade balance. 'Beginning with data for January 1986, the Bureau of the Census no longer publishes these data on a seasonally adjusted basis. For further information and for details regarding revised statistical month and monthly carryover data, see Bureau of the Census release FT 900, Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 35 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the fourth quarter of 1985 the current account deficit rose to $36.6 billion from $29.3 billion in the third quarter. The merchandise trade deficit rose to $39.5 billion from $33.0 billion in the third quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 10 10 BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES BALANCE ON CURRENT ACCOUNT . V1-- / -5 .r -10 MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE H. -5 -10 \ \\\ -15 -15 -20 -20 -25 -25 -30 -30 -35 -35 -40 -40 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1985 • SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Credits (+}, debits (—). 1 Im/estment inconie 3 Merchandise ' Net travel and transportation receipts Period Exports 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985" 184,473 224,269 237,085 211,198 201,712 219,916 213,990 1983: I n m IV 1984: I n rn IV 1985: I n m IV.... 1 2 3 Imports -27,536 -212,009 -249.749 25,480 -265,063 -27,978 -247,642 -36,444 -268,928 -67,216 -334,023 -114,107 -338,279 -124,289 Net Receipts Payments 64,132 72,506 86,411 84,768 78,023 87,609 90,456 -32,960 -42,120 -52,329 -55,273 -52,621 -68,500 -65,772 31,172 30,386 34,082 29,495 25,402 19,109 24,684 -1,778 -2,935 -997 -2,237 144 -1,183 -992 -318 -4,721 -162 -1,765 -8,974 -2,045 — 11,741 Other services, net 3 Balance on goods and services 1 Remittances, pensions, and other unilateral transfers ' Balance on current account -991 -5,649 4,659 5,735 1,873 -7,077 8,950 7,277 6,339 13,186 -6,847 8,121 -8,051 84 -8,135 8,345 -45,994 -37,141 -8,852 9,557 -95,945 — 11,413 -107,358 9,791 10,512 - 102,880 -14,784 -117,664 49,535 49,048 49,992 53,137 -58,418 -64,928 -70,689 -74,893 -8,883 -15,880 -20,697 -21,756 17,935 19,172 20,985 19,932 -12,283 -12,856 -13,588 -13,893 5,652 6,316 7,397 6,039 703 -71 -126 -669 —448 -1,116 -1,422 -1,735 2,260 2,462 2,290 2,544 -716 -8,289 -12,558 -15,577 -1,606 -1,875 -2,204 -3,166 -2,322 -10,164 -14,762 -18,743 53,469 54,556 55,649 56,242 -78,091 -84,181 -84.626 -87,127 -24,622 -29,625 -28,977 -30,885 23,502 20,895 21,769 21,445 -15,268 -17,277 -18,513 — 17,442 8,234 3,618 3,256 4,003 -346 -593 -250 -575 -1,753 -2,050 -2,574 -2,597 2,582 2,412 2,452 2,344 -15,905 -26,238 -26,093 -27,710 -2,212 -2,232 -2,876 -4,095 -18,117 -28,470 -28,969 -31,805 55,198 53,530 52,276 52,986 -78,563 -82,017 -85,231 -92,468 -23,365 -28,487 -32,955 -39,482 18,861 22,270 24,896 24,428 -16,331 -16,892 -16,245 - 16,304 2,530 5,378 8,651 8,124 -212 -586 -429 -818 -2,389 -3,090 -3,112 -3,150 2,425 2,587 2,541 2,956 -21,011 -24,198 -25,304 -32,370 -3,172 -3,428 -3,996 -4,189 -24,183 -27,626 -29,300 -36,559 Excludes military grants, Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. Fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the 36 United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services, net. Source; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued In the capital accounts, claims on foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $8.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 1985 compared with an increase of $1.5 billion in the third quarter. Liabilities to private foreigners reported by U.S. banks increased $20.5 billion, compared to an increase of $6.5 billion in the third quarter. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 60 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS* 60 CHANGE IN FOREIGN ASSETS IN THE U.S..NET 40 40 I \ /\ I \ 20 20 \ I \I M -20 V CHANGE IN U.S. ASSETS ABROAD, NET r\ -20 V -40 -40 i i i -60 1977 1978 1980 1979 1982 1981 -60 1983 1984 1985 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars; quarterly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Foreign assets in the 1 J.S., net [increast /capital inflovo (+)] 2 U.S. assets abroad, net i increase /capit il outflow (— ] Period Total 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 " U.S. official reserve assets 1 2 Other U.S. Government assets -64,331 -86,118 -111,031 -119,218 -55,045 -20,447 -38,183 -1,133 -8,155 -5,175 -4,965 -1,196 3,131 -3,858 -26,127 -1,128 -9,814 -17,976 -787 16 529 -953 1,135 -1,263 -1,171 -1,436 -4,976 -18,988 18,364 -14,846 -657 -566 -799 -1,110 -462 -2,551 -12,748 -22,421 -233 -356 -121 -3,148 1983: I n m IV 1984: I n m IV 1985: I n m rv"... U.S. private assets Total Other foreign assets of special drawing rights (SDfis) 1,139 1,152 1,093 Statistical discrepancy Total (sum of the items with sign reversed) Of which: Seasonal adjustment discrepancy U S official assets, net 1 (unadjusted, end of period) 18,956 26,756 30,074 33,958 33,747 34,934 43,186 38,752 58,112 83,322 94,447 84,322 97,319 123,108 -13,665 15,497 4,960 3,672 5,795 3,424 1,908 52,416 42,615 78,362 90,775 78,526 93,895 125,016 -24,205 119 -9,172 -15,587 15,158 15,608 19,539 34,017 161 1,706 -2,666 6,916 15,319 13,902 22,205 27,101 13,291 -4,316 5,037 2,702 680 83 -2,953 3,547 34,261 33,876 33,066 33,747 -2,059 -1,353 -1,369 -734 2,260 -17,070 20,532 - 13,003 19,277 41,592 3,140 33,310 -2,786 -224 -686 7,119 22,063 41,816 3,825 26,191 3,816 5,866 7,466 13,341 -455 -573 3,274 4,305 34,975 34,547 34,306 34,934 -850 853 -392 532 621 -1,342 -12,235 -18,742 13,711 26,313 34,548 48,536 -11,204 8,465 2,435 -1,604 24,915 17,849 32,113 50,140 10,934 3,863 7,500 10,444 -425 597 -3,650 4,674 35,493 36,088 38,295 43,186 -3,746 -59,453 -5,162 -72,802 100,758 -5,097 -6,131 -108,122 48,843 -5,006 -5,516 -11,800 -2,628 31,697 1 Consists of gold, special drawing rights (SDKs), convertible currencies, and the U.S. reserve position in the IMF. 2 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted. Foreign official assets Allocations 25,431 24,982 20,276 32,821 16,717 30,486 32,739 Sources: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of the Treasury, 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1982 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Related Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business—Output, Costs, and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings—Private Nonagricultural Industries Productivity and Related Data, Business Sector 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production—Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories—Manufacturing and Trade Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 17 18 19 19 20 21 PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Changes in Producer Prices for Finished Goods Changes in Consumer Prices—All Urban Consumers Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 22 23 24 24 25 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures Components of Money Stock and Liquid Assets Consumer Installment Credit Bank Loans and Securities, and Reserves Sources and Uses of Funds, Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Receipts, Outlays, and Debt Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 32 33 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices—Major Industrial Countries U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports U.S. International Transactions 35 35 36 General Notes Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar figures are in current dollars. Symbols used: p Preliminary. r Revised. c Corrected. ... Not available (also, not applicable). NSA not seasonally adjusted. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Price $2.50 (single copy) ($8.13 foreign). Subscription price: $27.00 per year; $33.75 for foreign mailing. 38 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE ; 1986 0—59-700