Full text of Economic Indicators : April 1973
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Congress, 1st Session Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON : 1913 (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas, Chairman PR0XMIRE, Wisconsin, Vice Chairman SENATE JOHN SPARKMAN (Alabama) J. W9 FULBRIGHT (Arkansas) ABRAHAM RIBICOFF (Connecticut) HUBERT H. HUMPHREY (Minnesota) LLOYD M. BENTSEN, Jr. (Texas) JACOB K. JAVITS (New York) CHILES H. PERCY (Illinois) JAMES B. PEARSON (Kansas) RICHARD S. SCHWEIKER (Pennsylvania) HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES RICHARD BOLLING (Missouri) HENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin) MARTHA W. GRIFFITHS (Michigan) WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania) HUGH L. CAREY (New York) WILLIAM B. WIDNALL (New Jersey) B. CONABLE, Jr. (New York) CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio) B, BLACKBURN (Georgia) JOHN R. STARK, Executive Director LOUGHLIN F0 McHuGH, Senior Economist OF HERBERT STEIN, Chairman MARINA v. N. WHITMAN Eo©nomic Indicators -prepared under super-vision of FRANCES M. LAW 120—81sT CONGRESS; 237—Isr IS J. Res. 55] To the monthly publication entitled *'Economic Indicators" Resolved by the Senate and House of of the United States of America in Congress assembled. That the Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators/' and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk5 Sergeant at Armss and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate and Houses and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved 235 1949. drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary^ Department of Commerce* Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at 55 or by at $6.50 year ($1*75 additional for foreign OF D.C 20402 Subscribers who to receive It at an earlier date after of provisions for airmail The Is $3.60 per year. H a single copy from: advan- TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING 'THE NATION'S INCOME, EXPENDITURE, AND SAVING Gross national product rose by an extraordinary $40% billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) to $1,236 billion in the first quarter, according to preliminary estimates. There was a huge rise of $28 billion in consumer expenditures. The excess of imports over exports deteriorated while business investment and government expenditures at all levels increased. [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] (jrovernme Dt Persons E xpenditur es N et receipts Per.Less: Less: Less: sonal Tax Interest Total " Personal Trans- Equals: saving TransPurand paid and exclud- consumpfers, Equals: Total fers, or tion nontax interest, ing chases expendNet expendinterest, disTotal ! transfer of goods interest itures saving receipts and receipts itures payand or and and ments sub— sub2 2 accruals sidies services to for- transsidies fers eigners Disposafc le personsil income _ Period Surplus or deficit income and product accounts 1970 1971 1972 511. 9 546. 3 591. 0 634. 4 689. 5 744.4 795. 1 13. 0 13. 9 15. 1 16. 7 17. 9 18. 5 19. 3 498. 9 532. 4 575. 9 617.7 671. 6 725. 8 775. 9 466. 3 492. 1 536. 2 579. 5 616. 8 664. 9 721.0 32.5 40.4 39. 8 38.2 54. 9 60. 9 54. 8 213.3 228. 9 263. 5 296.7 302. 0 321. 6 366. 1 55. 5 62. 8 70. 7 77.9 93. 0 105. 7 117. 1 157. 9 166. 2 192. 7 218. 8 209.0 215. 9 249.0 212. 3 242. 9 270. 3 287. 9 312. 1 338.5 371.6 55. 5 62. 8 70. 7 77.9 93. 0 105. 7 117. 1 156. 8 180. 1 199. 6 210. 0 219. 0 232.8 254.6 1. 1 -13. 9 -6. 8 8. 8 -10. 1 -16. 9 -5.4 1971: III... IV 750. 4 758. 5 18.7 18. 8 731. 7 739.7 670. 7 680. 5 61. 0 59.3 323. 3 330.7 106. 5 108.4 216. 8 222. 3 340. 2 349.4 106. 5 108.4 233. 6 240. 9 -16. 9 -18.7 1972: I II __ III... IV.. _ 770. 5 782.6 798. 8 828. 2 18. 8 19. 1 19. 4 19. 8 751. 7 763.5 779.4 808.4 696. 1 713. 4 728.6 745.7 55. 7 50. 1 50.8 62.8 353. 8 361.4 368.8 380.7 112. 1 114. 1 115.7 126.2 241. 7 247. 3 253. 1 254.5 361. 6 368. 3 371.2 385.5 112. 1 114. 1 115. 7 126.2 249.4 254. 1 255.6 259. 3 -7.7 -6. 9 -2. 4 -4.8 1973: !»___ 850. 9 20. 2 830.7 773. 7 56. 9 392. 7 125. 9 266. 8 1966 1967 1968 125. 9 Business Net Netexports of goods Gross transfers and service s Excess of m Total Statis- national Gross Excess to forGross private transfers income tical product of retained domestic eigners or or discrepor investearn-3 by perEquals: of net receipts ancy expendment investLess: ings sons and Exports Imports Net exports iture ment 4 (-) (_)5 Governexports ment Period 91. 3 93.0 95. 4 97.0 97. 3 109.9 124. 1 121.4 116. 6 126. 0 139. 0 137. 1 152. 0 180.4 -30. 1 -23. 5 -30. 6 -42. 0 -39.7 -42. 1 -56.3 2. 8 3. 0 2. 9 2. 9 3. 2 3.6 3.7 43.4 4a 2 50. 6 55.5 62.9 66.1 73.7 38. 1 41. 0 48. 1 53.6 59. 3 65.4 77.9 5. 3 5. 2 2. 5 1.9 3.6 .7 -4. 2 -2. 4 750. 9 — 2. 2 794. 6 .4 866. 9 936. 3 1. 0 —.4 981. 1 2.8 1, 055. 2 7.8 1, 152. 7 -1. 0 -.7 -2.7 -6. 1 — 4. 7 -4. 8 -.8 1, 050. 4 1, 151. 8 110. 5 | 117.2 152. 2 158. 8 -41.7 -41. 6 3.8 4. 0 68. 5 63. 0 68. 2 65. 1 .4 -2. 1 3.4 1, 062. 8 6. 1 1, 083. 2 -5. 9 -5. 2 1, 056. 9 1, 078. 1 115. 9 124.8 125. 1 130.1 168. 1 177.0 183.2 193.4 — 52. 2 -52.2 — 58. 1 -63. 3 3. 8 3. 8 3.8 3.3 70. 7 70.0 74.4 79.6 75. 3 75.2 77.8 83. 1 -4.6 -5. 2 -3. 4 -3.5 8. 4 9. 0 7.2 6.8 -4. 1 —.1 2.3 — 1. 5 1, 1, 1, 1, 3. 4 86. 6 91. 0 1966. 1967. 1968_ 1969_ 1970_ 1971. 1972_ 1971: III IV 1972: I II III IY Iiiternation al „_! 1 ! ! 1973:1 » 1 l 199. 4 Personal income (p. 5) less personal tax and nontax payments (fines, penalties, etc.). 2 Government transfer payments to persons, foreign net transfers by Government, net interest paid by government, subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises, and disbursements less wage accruals. 3 Capital consumption allowances, corporate inventory valuation adjustment, undistributed corporate profits, and private wage accruals less disbursements. Does not include retained earnings of unincorporated business, which are included 7. 8 1, 113. 1, 139. 1, 161. 1, 196. 1 4 6 3 749. 9 793.9 864. 2 930. 3 976.4 109. 139. 164. 194. 1 4 0 9 1, 235. 5 in4 disposable personal income. Private business investment, purchases of capital goods by private nonprofit institutions, and residential housing. 5 Net foreign investment less capital grants received by United States, with sign changed. Source: Department of Commerce, "3 JL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OR EXPENDITURE Gross national product (seasonally adjusted) rose at an annual rate of 14.3 percent in the first quarter. Real GNy rose at a 7.9 percent rate while prices increased at a 6.0 percent rate. BILUONS OF DOLLARS 1,400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 1 400 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1,200 1,200 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT 1,000 1,000 800 800 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES \ 600 600 GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES -I- 200 200 MIW.MI.itil""""1"""" NET EXPORTS OF GOODS GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT AND SERVICES \ I I I } 1967 I ! 1970 1969 1968 1972 1973 I/ PRELIMINARY COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Total Personal Gross conTotal gross private sump- domestic national gross tion product national investin 1958 product expend- ment itures dollars Billions (yf dollars; quarterly Period 1963 1964 1965.. _ _ 1966. 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1971: III IV 1972: I II III IV 1973: I» •__ 551.0 581. 1 617. 8 658. 1 675.2 706. 6 725. 6 722. 1 741. 7 789.5 742. 5 754.5 766.5 783.9 796.1 811. 6 827, 1 590.5 632.4 684. 9 749. 9 793. 9 864. 2 930. 3 976.4 1, 050. 4 1, 151. 8 1, 056. 9 1, 078. 1 1, 109. 1 1, 139. 4 1, 164. 0 1, 194. 9 1, 235. 5 375. 0 401.2 432.8 466. 3 492. 1 536. 2 579. 5 616. 8 664.9 721. 0 670. 7 680.5 696. 1 713.4 728. 6 745.7 773. 7 87. 1 94.0 108. 1 121.4 116. 6 126. 0 139. 0 137. 1 152. 0 180.4 152. 2 158.8 168. 1 177.0 183.2 193.4 199. 4 J This category corresponds closely with budget outlays for national defense, shown on p. 36. Gove rnment p>urchases of good s and Net services exports Federal of goods State Total and and National services Total defense1 Other local Implicit price deflator for total GNP, 1958- 1002 data at s easonalby ad juste d annual rates 122. 5 128.7 137.0 5. 3 156. 8 180. 1 5. 2 2. 5 199. 6 1.9 210.0 3. 6 219. 0 . 7 232. 8 A O 254. 6 tt. z> . 4 233. 6 -2. 1 240. 9 -4. 6 249. 4 -5.2 254. 1 -3. 4 255. 6 -3.5 259. 3 -4. 4 266. 8 5.9 8.5 6.9 64. 2 65.2 66.9 77.8 90. 7 98. 8 98.8 96.5 97. 8 105.8 97. 9 100. 7 105. 7 108, 1 105.4 104.0 107.0 50.8 13. 5 50.0 15.2 50.1 16. 8 60.7 17. 1 72.4 18.4 7a 3 20. 5 78.4 20. 4 75. 1 21. 5 71.4 26. 3 75. 9 29. 9 70. 1 27. 8 71. 9 28. 7 76. 7 28. 9 78. 6 29. 6 75. 1 30.2 73. 2 30. 8 75.0 32. 1 58. 2 63. 5 70. 1 79.0 89.4 100. 8 111. 2 122.5 135. 0 148.8 135. 7 140. 2 143. 7 146.0 150.2 155.2 159.8 107. 17 108. 85 110. 86 113. 95 117. 59 122. 30 128. 20 135. 23 141. 61 145. 89 142. 35 142. 88 144. 68 145. 34 146. 21 147. 23 149. 38 *Gross national product in current dollars divided by gross national product in 1958 dollars. Source: Department of Commerce. NATIONAL INCOME Employee compensation rose $27 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter. The increase was very large even after allowing for the $5 billion increase in employers' share ol social security taxes (which is included in the compensation total) and the &2 billion increase in Federal pay scales. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 1,000 1,000 900 900 TOTAL NATIONAL INCOME 800 800 - 700 700 COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES 600 60® 500 500 PROPRIETORS' AND RENTAL INCOME CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT ,1, 100 100 NET INTEREST 1 J_ J_ 1967 1968 1969 1970 L I 1971 f _ t I I 1973 1972 J/PRELIMINARY SOURCEs DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS (Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Total national income Period 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1971: III IV 1972: I II__ III IV 1973: I» „ Compensation of em- l ployees Proprieto rsj income Farm 2 of per- Net Corpora ;e profits and inventory va luation acIjust men t interest Total Profits Inventory before valuation taxes adjustment 481. 9 518. 1 564.3 620. 6 653. 6 711. 1 766.0 798.6 855.7 935. 6 341. 0 365.7 393.8 435. 5 467. 2 514. 6 566. 0 603.8 644. 1 705.3 13. 1 12. 1 14.8 16. 1 14.8 14 7 16. 7 16. 9 17. 3 19. 6 37, 9 40.2 42.4 45. 2 47.3 49. 5 50.5 49. 9 52. 6 55.6 17. 1 18.0 19.0 20. 0 21. 1 21. 2 22. 6 23. 3 24. 5 25. 6 13. 8 15.8 18.2 21. 4 24. 4 26. 9 30.5 34. 8 38. 5 41. 3 58. 9 66.3 76.1 82. 4 78. 7 84 3 79. 8 69.9 78.6 88.2 59. 4 66.8 77.8 84. 2 79.8 87. 6 84.9 74.3 83.3 94. 3 — .5 — 1.7 - 1. 8 — 1.1 -3. 3 — 5. 1 -4. 4 -4. 7 -6.0 860. 8 876. 2 648. 0 660. 4 17.6 18. 1 53. 1 53. 8 24.8 25. 0 39. 1 39. 7 78. 3 79. 4 84.1 83. 2 -5. 8 -3.9 903. 1 922. 1 943. 0 974.2 682. 7 697. 8 710. 2 730. 3 757. 3 19. 1 18. 7 19. 1 21. 6 22.5 54. 3 54. 4 56. 2 57.4 58.7 25. 2 24. 2 26. 2 26. 9 26.5 40. 1 40. 9 41.7 42. 5 43. 4 81.8 86. 1 89. 6 95.6 88.2 91.6 95. 7 101.5 -6. 5 -5. 5 -6. 1 -5. 9 -13. 3 1 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 4.) 2 Excludes farm profits of corporations engaged in farming and therefore differs from net farm income (including net inventory change) on p. 6 which includes such profits. Business and professional Rental income Source: Department of Commerce. -0.5 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $6% billion in March. Wages and salaries^ chiefli because of rising employment and hourly earnings, accounted for $5.7 billion of the increase. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,200 1,200 1,000 1/)00 400 - 200 200 1967 SOURCE: 1973 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period 1965 1966 1967 1968___ 1969 1970 1971. 1972 1972: F e b _ _ _ _ Mar____ Apr May___ June July.... Aug Sept Oct. COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] ! Wage I j Total and Other Propriet ors income Rental Divi- Personal Transfer labor 12 personal salary Business income payof dends interest income disburseincome and proFarm income ments l persons ments fessional 538.9 587. 2 629. 3 688. 9 750. 9 806. 3 861. 4 935.9 908. 5 913. 6 919. 4 924. 0 922. 9 932. 9 940. 0 946. 8 964. 8 Nov 976.2 Dec 982. 9 1973: Jan_ 986. 0 Feb 994. 5 Mar p _ _ 1, 001. 2 358.9 394. 5 423. 1 464. 9 509. 7 541. 9 572. 9 627. 0 609. 0 612. 4 617. 6 619. 9 624. 0 625. 7 630. 6 636.0 643. 0 648. 5 654. 9 662. 7 668. 4 674. 1 18.7 20. 7 22. 3 25. 4 28.4 32. 1 36. 5 40. 3 38. 8 39. 1 39. 5 39. 8 40. 1 40. 5 40. 8 41. 1 41. 4 41.8 42. 1 42. 4 42. 7 43. 0 14.8 16. 1 14. 8 14. 7 16. 7 16. 9 17. 3 19. 6 19. 1 19. 5 19. 1 18. 7 18. 4 18.6 19. 1 19. 5 20.7 22. 1 22.0 22. 2 22'. 5 22. 8 42.4 45. 2 47. 3 ' 49. 5 50. 5 49. 9 52. 6 55. 6 54. 1 54. 7 54. 9 55. 3 53. 2 55. 7 56. 3 56. 7 57. 0 57.4 57.8 58.2 58. 7 59. 1 1 The total of wagre and salary disbursemeiits and other labor income diners from compensation of employee s (see p. 3) in that it excl udes empk>3?er contributtons for social irtsurance and the excess oi wage accrue s over wage disburseinents. 19.0 20. 0 21. 1 21. 2 22. 6 23. 3 24. 5 25. 6 25. 2 25. 3 25. 5 25. 6 21. 5 25. 8 26. 3 26. 5 27. 0 26.7 26. 9 26. 6 26. 6 26. 3 19.8 20. 8 21. 4 23. 6 24. 3 24. 8 25. 4 26. 4 26. 1 26. 0 26. 1 26. 3 26. 3 26. 4 26. 6 26. 5 26. 7 26. 6 26. 8 27. 1 27. 3 27. 1 38.7 43. 6 48. 0 52. 9 59. 3 65. 8 69. 6 72. 9 71. 0 71. 3 72. 0 72.7 73.4 73. 5 73. 4 73. 3 73. 7 74. 5 75.4 75. 9 76. 2 76. 5 39.9 44. 1 51. 8 59. 6 65. 8 79. 5 93. 6 104. 0 100. 0 100. 1 99. 7 100. 9 101. 3 102. 2 102. 8 103.2 111. 6 115. 2 113. 6 113. 3 114. 8 115. 2 Less: Personal con- Nonagritributions cultural for social personal3 insurance income 13.4 17.7 20. 5 22. 8 26. 3 28. 0 31. 2 35.5 34. 7 34. 8 35. 0 35. 1 35. 3 35. 5 35. 8 36. 0 36.4 36. 5 36. 6 42. 4 42. 7 43. 0 519. 5 566. 3 609. 4 668. 8 728. 3 782. 8 837. 2 909. 3 882. 4 887. 1 893.4 898. 3 897. 5 907. 3 914. 0 920. 3 937. 1 947. 2 953.9 956. 6 964. 6 971. 1 2 Consists oi employer e ontributions to private f >ension, health, and welfare ftinds; comperisation for in juries; direct ors' fees; military reserve pa y; and a few o ifaer minor it ems. 3 Personal iricome excliis ve of net imsome of limn corpora ted farm enterprises, fa rm wages, a gricultural rlet interest, and net div idends paid by agricultural cc>rporations. Source: Department of Commerce. DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Disposable income rose more than personal income in the first quarter because tax refunds caused net taxes to fall. Despite the $23 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) increase in disposable income, consumer spending rose even more and personal saving fell. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,000 900 900 800 700 1973 1967 J/PRELIMINARY SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period Less: PerPersonal sonal tax and income nontax payments COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Per car.)ita disLess : Perse nal outlayfS posable personal Equals: Persoilal consurnption Equals: incc)me Disexpenditure 3 2 Personal Total posable saving Current 1958 personal personalx Durable Nondurable Services dollars dollars income outlays goods izoods Billions of dollars 1965 1966 1967 19681969 1970 1971 1972 Population (thou-3 sands) Dol lars 538.9 587. 2 629.3 __ 688. 9 750. 9 806. 3 861. 4 935.9 65.7 75.4 83. 0 97. 9 116.5 116. 7 117. 0 140. 8 473.2 511. 9 546.3 591. 0 634. 4 689. 5 744. 4 795. 1 444.8 479. 3 506. 0 551. 2 596. 2 634.7 683. 4 740.2 66.3 70.8 73. 1 84.0 90. 8 90.5 103. 5 116. 1 191. 1 206.9 215. 0 230. 8 245. 9 264. 4 278. 1 299.5 175.5 188. 6 204. 0 221. 3 242. 7 261. 8 283.3 305.4 1971: III. 867. 9 IV__ 881. 5 117. 5 123. 0 750. 4 758.5 689. 4 699. 2 106. 1 106. 1 278. 5 283. 4 1972: ! _ _ _ 907. 0 922. 1 II IIL. 939.9 IV__ 974.6 136. 5 139. 5 141. 1 146.4 770. 5 782. 6 798. 8 828.2 714. 9 732. 5 748.0 765.5 111. 0 113. 9 118.6 120.8 1973:1'.. 993.9 143. 0 850. 9 793. 9 130. 1 28.4 32. 5 40. 4 39. 8 38. 2 54.9 60.9 54.8 2,436 2,604 2,749 2,945 3,130 3,366 3, 595 3,807 2,239 2,335 2,403 2,486 2,534 2,603 2, 679 2,770 286. 1 290. 9 61.0 59. 3 3,620 3,649 2,684 2, 698 8. 1 288. 3 297. 2 302.0 310. 4 296. 7 302. 4 308.0 314. 5 55. 7 50. 1 50.8 62.8 3, 700 3,751 3,821 3, 953 2, 716 2, 739 1 2,773 2, 851 7.2 6.4 7.6 322. 9 320. 7 56. 9 4,054 2,887 6. 7 1 Seaso nally adji isted annu al rates 1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers, and personal transfer payments to foreigners. 2 See p. 2 for total personal consumption expenditures. Saving as percent of disposable personal income (percent) 194, 303 196, 560 198, 712 200, 706 202, 677 204, 879 207, 049 208, 837 6.0 6.4 7.4 6,7 6. 0 8. 0 8. 2 6.9 207, 312 207? 856 7.8 208, 208, 209, 209, 6.4 1 255 628 053 509 209, 866 8 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1; quarterly data are for middle of period, interpolated from monthly data. Source: Department of Commerce. _ FARM INCOME In the first quarter/ net farm (seasonally adjusted) rose by about 4 percent. Net income dollars per farm was 10 percent above a year earlier. farming in constatr BILLIONS OF DOLL ARS BILL IONS OF DOLLARS SEASO NALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 80 80 70 REALIZED> GROSS FARM if "JCOME sB !s! 70 ^*«* * *^* **^ ^^ \ \ 60 yjf 8 ^-.•a****^^ ***^ xn ^^""""""faaxXSOeaaaa^t^ _~—-^^—^ C:A 50 An Afl 1A 1f\ NET FARM Ih COME INCLUDING NET 1 MVENTORY CHANGE / 20 ----—--' t—-—/.- « us**** fit** 20 —.—_^_— 10 i 0 I I f 1967 1 1 1968 f f I 1 1969 f 1970 ! [ _ ! _ ! ! .___j_^_j_j^_ 1972 1971 SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 10 ! ! 1973 ! 0 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Ss^^^-^^&LJS. Personal income re ceived by total 1"arm poptilation income re ceived fro m farmingT Net fo3 farm oper ators Realizejd gross Period 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 From all sources 23.6 24. 9 24.0 25. 1 27. 6 28. 2 29. 5 33. 2 From From nonfarm farm sources 1 sources 13. 5 14 4 13. 1 13. 2 14. 9 15. 0 15. 6 17. 7 ProducCash tion ex- Exclud- Includreceipts penses ing net in- ing net in- Current 1967 from Total 1 ventory ventory2 dollars dollars 4 marketchange change ings Billions (31" dollars i Dol lars 10. 0 10. 5 10. 9 11. 9 12. 7 13. 2 13. 9 15.5 1971: III IV 1972: I II III IV 1973: I 1 Cash receipts from, marketings, Government payments, and nonmoney income furnished by farms. 2 Inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year. Also, see iootnote 2, p. 3. 3 Based on Census of Agriculture definition of a farm. The number of farms te held constant within a year. Net inc ome per net farm inci uding inventor}7 change 3 44.9 49. 7 49. 0 50. 9 55. 6 57. 9 60. 1 66.4 39.3 43. 3 42. 7 44. 1 48. 1 50. 5 53. 1 58.5 30.9 33. 4 34. 8 36. 2 38. 8 41. 1 44. 0 47. 2 Seaso naily adj'h,fted annu a^ 60. 4 53. 4 44. 3 54. 9 44. 9 61. 8 64. 1 56. 5 45. 6 64. 8 56. 9 46. 5 58. 1 66. 1 47. 3 62. 5 70. 6 49. 4 68. 5 75.6 53. 5 14.0 16. 3 14. 2 14. 7 16.8 16. 8 16. 1 19. 2 15.0 16. 3 14. 9 14. 8 16. 9 16. 8 17. 4 19.8 4 487 5, 019 4, 730 4, 854 5, 674 5, 754 6, 049 7, 000 4,723 5, 121 4, 730 4, 667 5, 206 5, 047 5, 083 5,645 17. 7 18. 2 19. 3 18. 9 19. 2 21.7 22. 6 6, 150 6, 330 6, 820 6,680 6, 780 7, 660 8,070 5, 130 5, 280 5,590 5, 390 5,420 6, 080 6, 160 rates 16. 1 16. 9 18. 5 18, 3 18. 8 21. 2 22. 1 < Income in current dollars divided by the index of prices paid by farmers for family living items on a 1967 base. Source: Department of Agriculture. CORPORATE PROFITS pecause of the investment tax credit, the 1971-72 percentage rise in profits after taxes exceeded the rise before taxes. Vtost of the after-tax rise showed up in undistributed profits. Cash flow was up $14.5 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 40 20 20 1966 1972 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1 Period 196,x 1967 19681969. 1970_ 1971 1972 __„_ ___ COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions o ' dollars; quarterly data at s easonalbr adjuste d annua . rates] Cor]3orate pi•ofits Cor]jorate pi ofits (bef<>re taxes) and inveiitory I pi,fter taxciS valuation adjustme nt TransCorpo| CorpoM .anufactui -ing portation, rate rate DiviUncomtax profits NonAll Durable durable muniAll l before liabil- Total dend distribinduspayuted goods other ity taxes Total indusgoods ! cations, tries ments profits and tries public tries utilities 46. 5 39. 3 22. 8 26. 7 16. 6 19. 8 76. 1 25. 6 77.8 31. 3 11. 1 42. 6 24. 0 49. 9 29. 1 20.8 82. 4 18. 6 84. 2 34.3 27. 9 11.9 38. 7 46. 6 20. 7 18. 0 21. 4 25. 3 29. 1 33. 2 78. 7 10. 8 79. 8 23. 6 22. 4 41. 7 19. 3 47. 8 24. 2 32. 0 I 87. 6 84. 3 39. 9 10. 6 18.8 44.8 36. 6 17. 7 24.3 84. 9 40. 1 20. 5 , 79. 8 33. 1 10. 1 27. 7 24. 8 16.7 40. 2 15.4 34. 1 11. 0 34. 6 74. 3 69.9 7.6 30.9 14. 1 16. 8 4-5. 9 20. 5 37. 3 25. 4 83. 3 78, 6 8. 2 39.5 37.9 26.4 18.9 53.0 94. 3 26.6 19.0 41. 3 41.3 88.2 9.0 Corporate capital consumption allow-2 ances Profits plus capital consumption allow-8 ances 36. 4 39, 5 43. 0 46. 8 51. 9 55. 2 60. 3 67. 7 82.9 89. 5 89. 6 94. 6 96.8 95. 3 106. 2 120.7 1971 :IIL.- jy___ 78. 3 79. 4 30. 1 31.2 13. 3 14. 3 16. 9 16. 9 8. 5 7.6 39. 6 40.6 84. 1 83. 2 37.5 35.3 46. 6 48. 0 25. 5 25.2 21. 0 22. 7 61. 2 63. 0 107.8 110.9 1972: I IL_ III— IV.. 81. 8 86. 1 89.6 95.6 35.4 37. 0 37.9 41.3 17.7 19. 4 18.4 19. 9 17. 7 17. 6 19.5 21.3 7. 8 8. 8 9.6 9. 9 38. 5 40. 3 42. 1 44.4 88. 2 91. 6 95. 7 101. 5 38. 8 40. 1 41.8 44. 3 49. 5 51. 5 53. 9 57.2 26. 0 26. 2 26.5 26. 7 23. 5 25. 3 27. 3 30.5 64. 8 68. 0 68.4 69. 5 114. 3 119.5 122.2 126.7 1973: I*— 12 Includes ail other industries and financial institutions. Includes depreciation and accidental damages. § Corporate profits after taxes plus corporate capital consumption allowances. 04-003°—73- 27. 2 1 Source: Department of Commerce. 70. 6 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT Gross private domestic investment rose $6 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter. Increases In fixed investment were partly offset by a decline in the rate of inventory accumulation, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 200 J/ PRELIMINARY SOURCES, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Fixed in^/estment Period Total gross private domestic investment Resid ential struc tures N<president ial Total Struc tures Total Total Nonfarm Produce rsj durable equ iprnent Total Nonfarm Total x-r Nonfarm 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 87. 1 94. 0 108. 1 121.4 116.6 126. 0 139.0 137. 1 152. 0 180.4 81.3 88. 2 98. 5 106. 6 108.4 118. 9 131. 1 132. 2 148. 3 174.5 54.3 61. 1 71.3 81. 6 83. 3 88. 8 98. 5 100. 9 105. 8 120. 6 19. 5 21.2 25. 5 28, 5 28. 0 30. 3 34. 2 36. 0 38. 4 42. 2 18. 8 20.5 24. 9 27. 8 27. 3 29. 6 33. 5 35. 2 37. 5 41.4 34.8 39. 9 45. 8 53. 1 55. 3 58.5 64.3 64.9 67.4 78.3 31.2 36.3 41. 6 48.4 50.0 53. 6 59.2 59.2 60. 9 70.5 27.0 27. 1 27. 2 25. 0 25. 1 30. 1 32. 6 31. 2 42. 6 54.0 26. 4 26. 6 26. 7 24.5 24. 5 29. 5 32. 0 30.7 42. 0 53. 2 1971:111 IV 152.2 158.8 150.9 157.2 106. 3 109. 8 38.7 38.8 37.9 38. 0 67. 6 71.0 60.8 64. 2 44. 5 47. 3 1972: I II III IV 168. 1 177.0 183.2 193.4 167.7 172.0 175.2 183. 1 116. 1 119.2 120.7 126.1 41. 3 42. 0 41.8 43.7 40. 5 41.2 40.9 42.9 74.8 77. 2 79.0 82.3 67.7 69.6 71.0 73.5 1973: I» 199. 4 191. 5 132. 3 46. 3 45. 3 86. 0 78.0 Source: Department of Commerce. 8 Change in business inv entories Total ,9 5.8 9. 6 14.8 8.2 7. 1 Nonfarm 5. 1 6.4 8. 6 15.0 7. 5 6. 9 7.7 7.8 4.9 3.6 5.9 4. 8 43. 9 46. 7 1. 3 L7 -.2 .8 51.6 52. 8 54.4 57.0 51.0 52. 1 53.7 56. 1 5. 0 .4 .1 4. 3 10.3 10. 1 59.2 58. 3 7.9 7.5 8.0 2.4 5. 6 7.9 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Businessmen expect to Increase their expenditures for new plant and equipment by 14 percent from 1972 to 1973, Manufacturers expect a rise of 1 8 percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF DOLLARS TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT 60 40 20 1967 I 1968 1973 J/ SEE FOOTNOTE 3 BELOW. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Period 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973s 1972: I__ 11 III IV 1973: I 3 Iis 2dhalf 3 Total MLanufactu ring I J 40. 77 46. 97 54. 42 63. 51 65.47 67. 76 75. 56 79. 71 81.21 88.44 100. 62 86. 79 87. 12 87. 67 91. 94 96. 74 100. 13 102. 63 Tra nsportat ion Durable goods Nondurable goods Mining Total Railroad 16. 22 19. 34 23. 44 28. 20 28.51 28. 37 31. 68 31. 95 29. 99 31. 35 37.01 30. 09 30. 37 30. 98 33. 64 35. 98 37. 13 37. 43 7. 53 9. 28 11. 50 14. 06 14. 06 14. 12 15. 96 15. 80 14. 15 15.64 18. 70 15. 06 14. 77 15. 67 16. 86 17. 88 18. 70 19. 07 8. 70 10. 07 11. 94 14. 14 14. 45 14. 25 15. 72 16. 15 15. 84 15. 72 18. 31 15. 02 15. 60 15. 31 16. 78 18. 10 18. 43 18. 36 1. 27 1. 34 1. 46 1. 62 1. 65 1. 63 1. 86 1. 89 2. 16 2. 42 2. 64 2.42 2. 38 2. 40 2. 46 2. 54 2. 62 2.69 1. 26 1. 66 1. 99 2.37 1. 86 1.45 1. 86 1.78 1. 67 1. 80 1. 68 2. 10 1. 88 1.50 1. 71 2. 08 1. 79 1.45 1 Excludes agricultural business; real estate operators; medical, legal, educational, and cultural service; and nonprofit organizations. 2 Includes trade, service, construction, finance, and insurance. 3 Estimates based on expected capital expenditures as reported by business in late January and February 1973. Includes adjustments when necessary for systematic tendencies in expectations data. NOTE.—Annual total is the sum of unadjusted expenditures; it does not Air 0. 40 1. 02 1. 22 1.74 2. 29 2. 56 2. 51 3. 03 1. 88 2.46 2.38 1. 96 2. 89 2. 67 2. 33 2. 12 2. 94 2. 22 1 _ , ,. Public Other utilities Communication 4.98 5. 49 6. 13 7.43 8. 74 10. 20 11. 61 13. 14 15. 30 17.00 19. 82 16. 92 16. 60 17. 01 17. 53 18. 36 18.56 21. 06 4.06 4. 61 5. 30 6. 02 6. 34 6. 83 8. 30 10. 10 10. 77 11.89 13. 40 11.71 11. 59 11. 56 12. 63 1. 58 1. 50 1. 68 1. 64 1. 48 1. 59 1. 68 1. 23 1. 38 1. 46 1. 52 1.48 1. 53 1.41 1. 42 1. 66 1. 70 1. 38 Commercial and other 2 10. 99 12. 02 13. 19 14.48 14.59 15. 14 16. 05 16. 59 18. 05 20.07 22. 16 20. 10 19. 88 20. 16 20. 21 33. 98 35. 38 36. 39 necessarily coincide with the average of seasonally adjusted figures. These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter cover agricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlays charged to current expense. Source: Department of Commerce, OF ^ In March, there were exceptionally large increases in the civilian labor force (640,000) and employment (700,000) on a seasonally adjusted basis. During the month, the total labor force, which includes the Armed Forces, surpassed the 90 million mark for the first time. Over the past year, civilian employment has increased by 2.6 million while unemployment has declined by 700,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS* 90 190 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 85 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE 80 75 istwjt****8***9 EMPLOYMENT 70 65 UNEMPLOYMENT ...I 0 I i i i PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE 1972 1967 *16 YEARS OF AGE AMD OVER. SOURCE- DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Civiliai,n emTotal ployicnent labor force Non- Unemploy- (includagriTotal ment ing culArmed tural Forces) Thousands of i>ersons 16 77, 902 74, 296 2,832 84, 240 78, 627 75, 165 4, 088 85, 903 79, 120 75, 732 4,993 86, 929 81, 702 78, 230 4,840 88, 991 Unadji j,sted o ver years of age 80, 734 77, 902 3, 606 82, 715 78, 627 3,462 84, 113 79, 120 3, 387 86, 542 81, 702 3,472 (.seasonally adjusted 74, 296 75, 165 75, 732 78, 230 2,832 4,088 4,993 4, 840 3. 5 4. 9 5. 9 5. 6 Unadjusted 87, 318 87, 914 87, 787 87, 986 90, 448 91, 005 90, 758 89, 098 89, 591 89, 400 89, 437 79, 366 80, 195 80, 627 81, 223 82, 629 83, 443 83, 505 82, 034 82, 707 82, 703 82, 881 76, 458 77, 101 77, 339 77, 692 78, 653 79, 383 79, 475 78, 376 78, 986 79, 340 79, 719 5,412 5, 215 4, 697 4,344 5,426 5,173 4, 857 4, 658 4,470 4, 266 4,116 88, 058 88, 768 88} 64? 88, 850 88, 947 88, 985 89, S37 89, 471 89, 651 89, 454 89, 707 85, 518 86, 264 86, 184 86, 431 86, 554 86, 697 86, 941 87, 066 87, 236 87, 023 87, 267 80, 594 81, 216 81, 209 81, 458 81, 752 81, 782 82, 061 82, 256 82, 397 82, 525 82, 780 77, 225 77, 756 77, 896 78, 120 78, 421 78, 339 78, 451 78, 677 78, 739 78, 969 79, 130 4,924 5, 048 4, 975 4, 973 4, 802 4, 815 4, 880 4,810 4,839 4,498 4,487 6.4 88, 122 89, 075 89, 686 81, 043 81,838 82, 814 78, 088 78, 882 79, 683 4,675 4,845 4,512 89, 325 89, 961 90, 629 86, 921 87, 569 88, 268 82, 555 83,127 83, 889 79, 054 79, 703 80, 409 4, 366 4,442 4, 379 Period Total labor force (including Armed Forces) 1969— 1970___ 1971___ 1972*__ 84, 240 85, 903 86, 929 88, 991 1972: Feb*_ MarApr. MayJune. July. Aug_ Sept. Oct_. Nov_ Dec__ 1973: Jan__ Feb_. Mar*. 1973 1 Total labor force as percent of noninstltutional population. Source: Department of Labor. 10 CiviMim einplc yment Civilian labor force Total Agricultural 3, 369 3, 460 0 &1 & O, OJLO 3,338 3, 331 3,443 3, 610 3,579 3, 658 3, 556 3, 650 3,501 8,4®4 5, 480 Nonagricultural Unemployment Labor Unem- rate force (percent of participloycivilia D labor pation1 ment for ce) rate Percent :: _ 61. 1 61. 3 61. 0 | 61. 0 Seasc natty adju ,sted 1 5.8 5. 9 6. 1 5. 5 5. 1 6. 2 5. 8 5. 5 5. 8 5. 5 5. 6 5. 6 5. 1 4. 9 4. 7 5.2 5.1 5.4 5.5 5. 6 5.2 5.8 5.5 5. 5 5. 0 5.1 5. 0 60. 8 61. 2 61. 0 61. 1 61. 1 61. 0 61. 2 61. 2 61. 2 61.0 61. 1 60. 7 61. 1 61. 4 *Data beginning January 1972 not strictly comparable with prior data becausel of adjustment to 1970 Census data, which added 333,000 to the civilian labor force and 301,000 to civilian employment. A further adjustment in March 1973 added 60,000 to the labor force and to employment. SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND PART-TIME EMPLOYMENT The unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) edged back down to 5.0 percent in March from February's 5.1 percent level and was well below the 5.9 percent of a year earlier. PERCENT 10 PERCENT 10 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED LABOR FORCE TIME LOST / " \ ^^, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, EXPERIENCED WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS .-"•*•» UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS 1967 1973 1968 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Persons at work 3in nonagri cultural ir idustries by hourg worked ]3er week 2 Uiider 35 he>urs Uneraploymen t rate (percen t of civilijan labor for ce in gimip) Experi- Married Labor force enced All time lost l Over 40 and men hours workers wage (wife salary workers present) Period Per cent 1969 1970 1971 1972 3. 5 4. 9 1972: Feb Mar Apr_ May_ June July Aug Sept Oct Nov_ Dec 1973: Jan 5. 8 5. 9 5. 8 5. 8 5. 6 5.9 5.6 Feb Mar 1 _ 5.6 3. 3 4. 8 5. 7 5.5 5. 5 5.3 5.4 5. 1 5.3 5.5 5.0 4.8 4.6 4- 7 4.6 5. 5 5. 2 5. 1 5. 1 5. 0 3. 2 2. 8 5.3 Seasonall ?/ adjusted 5. S 5. 2 5. 2 5. 6 1. 5 2.6 4-9 3.9 5. 3 6. 4 6.0 2. 9 2. 8 2. 9 2. 8 2. 9 2. 7 2. 6 2. 8 2. 8 2. 5 6. 1 6. 2 6. 1 6. 2 5. 9 6. 0 6. 1 5. 8 5. 8 2.4 2. 5 5.4 2.4 2.4 5.4 5. 3 5. 3 5. 2 20, 608 18, 925 19, 095 20, 320 19, 362 21, 876 20, 239 20, 478 19, 989 18, 824 19, 626 21, 881 20, 735 21, 404 21, 740 19, 527 20, 311 21, 485 Alan-hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part-time for economic reasons as a percent of potentially available labor force man-hours. 2 Differs from total nonagricultural employment (p. 10), which includes perbons with jobs but not at work for such reasons as vacation, illness, bad weather, fand industrial disputes. 3 Includes persons who worked part-time because of slack work, material shortages or repairs, new job started, or job terminated. 35-40 hours Part-ti me for economi c reasons Total Part-ti me for economi c reasons Usually Usually Usually fullpartfulltime 3 time 3 time 4 Thousan ds of pers ons 16 ye ars of age and over 34, 201 15, 210 955 855 1,201 995 33, 537 18, 222 1, 184 35, 752 16, 298 1,256 36, 794 16, 549 1, 327 1,081 1Jnadjustec 1 Seasonall y 1, 147 1,087 36, 460 17, 360 1,146 1,172 37, 517 17, 774 1, 140 1, 138 37, 592 16, 571 1,081 1, 103 1,170 1,093 996 1, 117 37, 468 16,700 1, 177 1, 878 1, 066 37, 608 15, 169 1, 034 2, 140 1}091 36, 143 14, 046 1, 190 1,927 1,076 36, 103 13, 869 1,070 1, 107 37, 409 15, 176 1, 136 1,027 980 1, 086 33, 864 20, 979 1,025 946 1, 065 37, 566 17, 379 1,073 917 968 37, 483 17, 543 893 951 35, 819 18, 557 948 1,6 020 1, 020 1,068 35, 844 19, 305 967 s 1, 096 940 37, 537 17, 378 Usually parttime 4 adjusted 1,275 1,308 1, 396 1, 316 1, 503 1,385 1,363 1, 277 1, 237 1, 192 1, 213 1, 130 1,254 1,258 * Primarily includes persons who could find ©nly part-time work. «Average hours worked: usually full-time, 24.1; usually part-time, 19.1. Source: Department ©f Lab@r. 11 UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In March, insured unemployment under State programs averaged 379/000 lower than a year earlier. The seasonal! adjusted insured unemployment rate rose slightly to 2.8 percent. MILLIONS OF PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS WEEKLY INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT (STATE PROGRAMS) 3h 1971 x. N 1972 f JAN. FEB. MAR. APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR I960 1970_ 1971 * 1972* 1972: Feb* Mar*v __ Apr May pv June _ July p __ Aug P _ _ Septp *___ _ ___ Oct Nov* Dec25 1973: Jan » _ Feb* Mar v_ Week ended: 1973: Mar 10 17 24 31 p Apr 7 14 » Source: Department of Labor, 12 I ! DEC COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS A 11 progranis Period NOV. OCT. Stiate progra ms Insured Total unem- benefits Insured ployCovered paid unem(milemploy- ment ploy(weekly ment lions ment averof dolage) lars) Thou sands __ 59, 999 1, 177 59, 526 2,070 2, 313 59, 375 2, 185 3, 122 2,922 2,430 2, 105 1, 951 2, 087 1, 763 1, 554 1, 511 1, 691 1, 993 2, 332 2,250 2, 077 2, 159 2, 103 2,030 1,960 1,910 1 Not charted. 2, 298. 6 4, 179. 1 5, 498. 2 5, 000. 0 638.3 683. 2 516. 4 472.7 423. 0 402.0 405. 3 313. 5 311.4 338.7 372. 1 425. 3 432. 9 481. 6 Initial claims Insurec unemploymen t as perExhaus- cent of covered emplo yment tions Unad- Seasonadjusted ally justed Weekly jiverage, t iiousands 1, 101 16 200 296 25 1, 805 2, 150 295 38 1, 850 265 37 2,492 293 40 242 2, 279 40 2,005 237 43 1, 740 216 39 1, 636 250 36 321 1, 823 35 1, 564 213 33 29 1, 388 190 1,357 214 26 1,507 253 28 1, 801 324 29 2, 124 331 31 2,069 247 29 1,900 213 31 1,978 1,924 1,856 1, 791 1 1, 745 228 212 209 194 244 213 Benefi ts paid Total Average weekly lions of check dollars) (dollars) (mil- Per sent 2. 1 3. 4 4. 1 3.5 4. 7 4.3 as 3.3 3. 1 3.4 2. 9 2.6 2.5 2.7 3.3 3. 8 3.7 3.4 2, 127. 9 3, 848. 5 4, 957. 0 4, 550. 0 S.5 589. 5 3.5 628. 9 3.6 S. 7 8. 6 S. 7 472.9 429.2 o. 4 363.0 G> f 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.0 2. 7 2. 7 2. 8 382. 1 364. 3 280. 1 280.3 307. 2 342.2 392. 7 399,1 438. 9 46. 17 50. 34 54.02 57.00 56.71 57. 21 56.90 56.32 55.23 55. 75 55. 53 60. 16 56.95 57.59 58. 10 57. 09 57. 13 57. 16 3.5 3.4 3. 3 3.2 3.0 NOTE.—For definitions and coverage, see the 1967 Supplement to Econorr, Indicators. NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 190,000 (seasonally adjusted) in March, bringios the climb over the past year to 2.8 million jobs. MILLIONS OF WAGE MILLIONS OF WAGE AND SALARY WORKERS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) AND SALARY WORKERS {SEASONALLY ADJUSTEDJ 76 16 (ENLARGED SCALE) s* *^\ 72 ."""""^'^-'-v^ _-~--- #0^ - 14 WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE ALL NONAGRICULTU RAL ESTABLISHMENTS 68 44 - 12 SERVICES NDNMANUFACTUFJNG (PRIVATE) „-»« W 40 DURABLE MANUFACTURING -1""1 m— . ^ ^ 10 NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING AMANUFACTURING \ 20 ,ai.iMH ,....„._--- \ CGOVERNMENT ^ CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION ,.- 12 _ _ /|i i i i i 1 i i | i t 1970 I.I 1 ! 1 I ! 1 I ! I 1 | J 1 | ! 1 I ! 1 I 1972 1971 1 I ! I f I I 1 1 1 IK 1973 H 1970 1971 COUNCil Of ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thousands of wage and salary workers;1 seasonally adjusted] N onmanu faeturing I (private) Manufac during (]private) Period Total 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1972:Feb~_ Mar__ Apr— May__ June-_ July.. Aug.Sept__ Get— Nov.. Dec__ 1973: Jan__ Feb*_ Mar p _ 65, 857 67, 915 70, 284 70, 593 70, 645 72, 764 71, 744 72, Oil 72, 246 72, 592 72, 699 72, 661 72, 984 73, 176 73, 589 73, 899 74, 026 74, 245 74, 713 74, 901 NonTotal Total JJurable goods durable goods -I-X 19, 447 19, 781 20, 167 19, 349 18, 529 18, 933 18, 612 18, 685 18, 790 18, 892 18, 931 18, 861 18, 930 19, 029 19, 219 19, 324 19, 419 19, 469 19, 577 19, 620 1 -I i Gover nment Con- Trans- Whole- Finance, insursale tract portation ance, Services Federal Mining conand and and retail strue- public real tion utilities trade estate 11, 439 8,008 35, 012 11, 626 8, 155 36, 288 11, 895 8, 272 37, 915 11, 195 8, 154 38, 709 10, 565 7,964 39, 261 10, 884 8,049 40, 541 10, 621 7,991 39, 987 10, 673 8, 012 40, 145 10, 755 8, 035 40, 238 10, 837 8,055 40, 426 10, 857 8,074 40, 544 10, 843 8,018 40, 521 10, 897 8,033 40, 737 10, 970 8,059 40, 782 11, 127 8,092 40, 973 11, 203 8, 121 41, 114 11, 281 8, 138 41, 103 11, 326 8, 143 41, 295 11,406 8, 171 41, 603 11,441 8, 179 41, 727 1 Includes all full- and part-time wage and salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who worked during or received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Excludes proprietors, self-employed per>sons, domestic servants, and personnel of the Armed Forces. Total derived from [this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force, shown on p. 10, which include proprietors, self-employed persons, and domestic servants; which count persons as employed when they 1973 1972 613 606 619 623 602 607 613 614 605 604 600 599 602 606 610 609 607 610 612 612 3, 208 4, 261 3,285 4,310 3, 435 4, 429 3,381 4,493 3,411 4,442 3, 521 4,495 3,494 4,438 3, 512 4,487 3, 493 4,481 3, 535 4,490 3, 550 4,491 3,489 4,473 3,544 4,478 3, 551 4,499 3, 568 4, 540 3,524 4, 549 3,452 4, 558 3,502 4, 574 3,589 4,582 3, 601 4, 576 | 13, 606 14, 084 14, 639 14, 914 15, 142 15, 683 15, 456 15, 508 15, 561 15, 632 15, 682 15, 692 15, 758 15, 794 15, 835 15, 954 15, 946 15, 989 16, 121 16, 212 3, 225 3,382 3,564 3,688 3,796 3, 927 3,874 3, 885 3,802 3, 913 3,931 3,927 3,936 3, 953 3,969 3, 981 3, 991 3,999 4, 012 4, 031 10, 099 2, 719 10, 623 2,737 11, 229 2,758 11, 612 2,705 11, 869 2,664 12, 309 2,650 12, 112 2,669 12, 139 2,667 12, 206 2,664 12, 252 2, 665 12, 290 2, 646 12, 341 2,621 12, 419 2,618 12, 379 2, 624 12, 451 2,630 12, 497 2, 642 12, 549 2, 652 12, 621 2,637 12, 687 2, 632 12, 695 2,619 State and local 8, 679 9, 109 9, 444 9, 830 10, 191 10, 640 10, 476 10, 514 10, 554 10, 609 10, 578 10, 658 10, 699 10, 741 10, 767 10, 819 10, 852 10, 844 10, 901 10, 935 are not at work because of industrial disputes; and which are based on an enumeration of population, whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments. Source: Department of Labor. 13 WEEKLY HOURS OF WORK - SELECTED INDUSTRIES The average workweek (seasonally adjusted) for production workers in the private nonfarm sector as a whole one in the manufacturing subsector were unchanged in March on a seasonally adjusted basis. HOURS PER WEEK (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED} 461 HOURS PER WEEK (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 46 MANUFACTURING TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL PRIVATE 44 42 40 38 36 34 1970 1971 1972 1970 1973 1971 1972 1973 1971 T972 1973 42 RETAIL TRADE CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION 40 36 32 30 1970 1973 SOURCE, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Average hours per week Total nonagrieulturai private 2 Period Manufacturing Contract construction 1 Retail trade s Total nonagrieultura! private 2 Unad iusted 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 _ 1970__ 1971 1972_ 1972: Feb Mar__ _. Apr May June July Aug __ __ Sept Oct Nov Dec 1973: Jan Peb*33 Mar .. l Data 2 __ 38.8 38.7 38.8 38.6 38. 0 37. 8 37. 7 37. 1 37.0 37.2 36. 8 36. 9 37. 0 36. 9 37. 4 37.6 37.6 37.4 37.3 37. 1 37.2 36. 6 36.8 37.0 40. 5 40. 7 41. 2 41. 3 40. 6 40. 7 40. 6 39. 8 39.9 40.6 40. 1 40. 3 40. 5 40. 5 40. 9 40. 4 40. 6 41. 0 40.8 41. 0 41.2 40. 0 40. 6 40.8 relate to production workers or nonsupervisory employees. Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. IS. 14 Manufacturing Contract construction Retail trade :i Seasonal!]7 adjusted 37. 3 37. 2 37. 4 37. 6 37. 7 37.4 37.9 37. 4 37.3 37.0 36.0 36. 8 36. 6 36. 8 37.6 37. 9 38. 2 38. 2 38.2 36.0 35. 2 34. 8 34.8 36.6 37. 3 37. 0 36. 6 35. 9 35. 3 34. 7 34. 2 33.8 33. 7 33.6 33.0 33. 2 33.3 33. 3 34. 1 34.7 34. 7 33. 6 33. 3 33.2 33. 9 32. 9 32.9 33. 1 _ 87. 2 37. 1 87. 3 37. 0 37. 1 o/. & 37. 1 87. 3 87. S 87. 2 37. 0 86. 9 37. 2 37.2 3 Includes eating and drlnk'in^ places. Source: Department of Labor. 40.4 40. 4 40. 8 40. 5 40. 7 40. 6 40. 6 40. 8 40. 7 40. 9 40. 7 40. S 40. 9 40. 9 37. S 37. 2 36. 7 36. 7 36. 9 37.0 37. 1 37. 1 37. 6 37. 0 35. 6 86. 1 36. 0 37.0 88.6 33.6 33. 7 S3. 7 33. 8 33. 7 38. 6 38. 5 38.5 83.5 S3. 7 S3. 4 83. 5 33.5 AVERAGE HOURLY AND WEEKLY EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIES Average hourly earnings of private nonfarm production workers increased 1 cent in March to $3.79 (not seasonally adjusted) and were 5.9 percent above a year earlier In manufacturing, the increase in hourly earnings over the past 12 months amounted to 6.4 percent, but after adjusting for overtime and interindustry employment shifts, the increase was 5.4 percent. Average private nonfarm weekly earnings increased by $1.13 to $140.23 and were 6.2 percent above a year earlier. DOLLARS DOLLARS AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS 240 6.00 A CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION V 200 5.00 4.00 CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION y 160 MANUFACTURING TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL PRIVATE 120 3.00 -TOTAL NONAGRICULTURALPRIVATE H^ RETAIL TRADE 80 2.00 RETAIL TRADE 1970 1972 1971 1970 1973 1971 1972 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR 1973 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC A'DVISERS [For production workers or nonsupervisory employees] Average h ouriy earni ngs— curre nt dollars Average ?weekly earn ings— curr ent dollars Period 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1972: Feb Mar Apr May_ June July Aug Sept Oct Nov « Dec 1973: Jan_ _„ Feb*> Mar*> 1 2 Also includes other Includes eating and 3 Total nonagricultural private * $2. 36 2. 45 2. 56 2. 68 2. 85 3. 04 3.22 3. 43 3.65 3. 56 3. 58 3. 61 3. 62 3.63 3. 64 3.66 3.72 3. 74 3. 74 3.74 3.77 3.78 3. 79 Manufacturing $2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 53 61 72 83 01 19 36 56 3.81 3. 72 3.74 3. 76 3.78 3.79 3. 78 3. 80 3. 86 3.86 3. 89 3. 95 3.98 3.97 3.98 Contract con- struction $3. 55 3.70 3. 89 4. 11 4. 41 4.79 5. 24 5. 69 6.06 5. 95 5. 94 5.96 6.01 5. 94 5.96 6.03 6. 15 6.22 6. 23 6.32 6.42 6.31 6. 29 Retail trade 2 $1. 75 1. 82 1.91 2. 01 2. 16 2. 30 2. 44 2. 57 2.70 2. 66 2. 67 2.68 2.69 2.69 2.70 2. 70 2. 73 2. 74 2.75 2. 75 2.78 2.80 2. 80 private industry groups shown on p. 13, drinking places. Adjusted to exclude the effects of overtime and interindustry shifts. Total nonagricultural private 1 Manufactur- $91. 33 95. 06 $102. 97 107. 53 112. 34 114. 90 122. 51 129. 51 133. 73 142. 04 154. 69 149. 17 150. 72 152. 28 153. 09 155. 01 152. 71 154. 28 158. 26 157. 49 159. 49 162. 74 159. 20 161. 18 162. 38 98.82 101. 84 107. 73 114. 61 119. 46 126. 91 135. 78 131. 01 132. 10 133. 57 133. 58 135. 76 136. 86 137. 62 139. 13 139. 50 138. 75 139. 13 137. 98 139. 10 140. 23 ing Contract con- struction $132. 06 138. 38 146. 26 154. 95 164. 93 181. 54 195. 98 212. 24 224. 22 214. 20 218. 59 218. 14 221. 17 223. 34 225. 88 230. 35 234. 93 237. 60 224. 28 222. 46 223. 42 219. 59 230. 21 Retail trade 2 Manufc icturing indu stries Adjusted Average weekly hourly earnearnings. ings, 1967= 100 3 $64. 75 66. 61 68.57 70. 95 74.95 78.66 82. 47 86. 61 90.72 87. 78 88.64 89.24 89. 58 91.73 93. 69 93. 69 91.73 91.24 91. 30 93.23 91.46 92. 12 92. 68 1967 dollars 4 90. 3 92.6 95.7 100. 0 106. 2 112. 6 119. 6 127. 5 135.4 133. 1 133. 5 134. 1 134. 6 134. 7 135. 0 135. 5 136. 7 137.0 137.8 139.2 140. 1 140. 1 140. 7 4 Earnings in current dollars divided by the consumer price index. Source: Department of Labor. $110. 84 113. 79 115. 58 114. 90 117. 57 117. 95 114. 99 117. 10 123. 46 120. 49 121. 55 122. 51 122. 77 124. 01 121. 68 122. 74 125. 40 124. 40 125. 68 127. 84 124. 67 125. 33 125. 10 15 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION In March, industrial production (seasonally adjusted) showed another sizable increase of 0.7 percent, The increase since March of last year was 9% percent. Production gains in March were widespread among consumer goods/ business equipment and materials. Index, 1967=100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 160 1970 1973 SOURC& BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Period 1964 .__ 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 _ 1970 1971 1972* 1972: Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept __ Oct Nov Dec 1973: Jan Feb >„ Mar p Total industrial production 81.7 89. 2 97.9 100.0 105.7 110. 7 106.6 106.8 114.4 110.0 111. 2 112.8 113. 2 113.4 113.9 115. 1 116. 1 117.5 118. 5 119. 2 119.9 120.9 121.7 [1967= 100, seasonally adjusted] Industry Market MJinufacturi ^g Fiaal produ cts Inter"R/T 4ConMining Utilities mediate EquipNonrials Total Durable durable Total sumer products ment goods 81. 2 89. 1 98.3 100.0 105. 7 110. 5 105. 2 105.2 113.2 108.5 109.7 111.8 112.3 112. 5 113.2 114. 1 115.2 116.6 117. 4 118. 5 119.2 120,2 121.0 79. 0 sa 5 99. 0 100.0 105. 5 110. 0 101.4 99.4 107.4 102. 1 103.4 105. 8 106. 3 106.8 107.7 108.4 109.7 111.4 112. 4 114. 1 114.9 116. 1 117.2 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Beserve System. 16 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 84. 4 90. 0 97. 3 100.0 106. 0 111. 1 110.6 113. 5 121.5 117. 8 118.8 120.3 120.8 121.3 121.0 122.6 123.3 124.3 124. 7 125. 0 125. 3 126.2 126.6 91. 1 93.9 98.4 100.0 103. 9 107. 2 109. 7 107.0 108.2 107.2 108.5 109. 0 107. 9 108.2 107.9 107.7 110.2 110.0 110. 1 108. 3 108.5 ioae 108.6 81. 9 86. 9 93. 6 100.0 109. 4 119. 5 128. 3 133. 9 143. 5 139. 7 139.7 140. 2 141. 1 141.0 142. 5 144. 1 145. 6 146. 6 148. 7 148. 6 150. 8 151.6 153.6 79.6 86. 8 96. 1 100. 0 105. 8 109. 0 104. 5 104. 7 111.2 107. 6 108.2 109.8 110.2 110. 1 110.2 111. 3 112.4 113. 9 115. 0 115. 3 116. 4 117.0 117.8 86. 8 93. 0 98. 6 100.0 106. 6 111. 1 110. 3 115. 7 123. 1 119.6 119. 6 122.0 122. 2 122. 1 122.0 123. 1 124. 4 125.5 126. 8 126. 7 127. 8 127.9 129.0 70. 1 78. 7 93. 0 100. 0 104.7 106. 1 96. 3 89.4 94.6 90.9 92.4 92.7 93.4 93.3 93.4 94. 8 95.8 97.3 98. 5 99. 4 100. 6 101.7 102. 3 87.3 93.0 99.2 100. 0 105. 7 112. 0 111. 7 112.5 120.4 117.0 117. 3 117. 3 119. 3 119. 1 120.5 121.2 121. 7 123.4 125.9 125. 7 126. 1 127. 2 127.0 82. 6 91. 0 99.8 100.0 105.7 112. 4 107.7 107.4 116.5 110.8 113. 1 115. 0 115.6 116. 1 116.8 117. 4 119. 1 120.3 120. 6 122.0 122. 1 123. 9 125.0 PRODUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURES Output of most manufactures (seasonally adjusted) Increased in March. An exception was the % percent decline in primary metals from the sharply upward revised February level. Index, 1967=100 [SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 160 Index, 1967=100 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 140 fcr» ^* •JJA CHEM ICALS, PETROLEU M. AND RUBBER \ TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT 100 I I I 1 » I M 1I 1 I I I I M i I 1I I I ^^/ ~~ vr •JO A 1Ofl ^A ^^ / ^^^^ ^,«*^ f PAPER AND PRINTING \ -.s *%^«*«<^% *\ ^ >"^ % *»%l ^f^^ ! ! I I I I | ! I-! I I Ii il1 IIl1I 1971 1970 1 1 ! ! ! 1?I f ' ' I F1 1 f I ! I t ? t 1972 1973 130 FOODS AND TOBACCO 110 100 TEXTILES, APPAREL, AND LEATHER 90 80 1970 1973 1971 1972 SOURCE! BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 1973 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967 = 100, seasonally adjusted] Durat le manufcictures Period Primary metals Nc ndurable manufactu res FabriTranspor- Lumber Textiles, cated Machin- tation and apparel, ery equipprodand metal products ment leather ucts Paper Chemicals, Foods and petroprint- leum, and tobacco ing rubber 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972^ 95. 7 104. 0 108. 8 100.0 103. 2 114. 1 106. 9 100. 9 113.1 83. 3 92. 6 100. 5 100. 0 106. 3 113. 6 109. 4 107. 4 113.4 74 3 84. 1 98. 6 100. 0 101. 9 106. 8 100. 3 96. 2 105.3 79. 6 91.3 101. 2 100. 0 109. 7 107. 6 90.4 92. 9 98.8 98. 4 100. 0 104 8 108. 6 106. 3 113. 9 122. 2 91. 9 97. 8 101. 7 100. 0 104. 9 105.9 100. 2 100.7 106.4 84 5 90. 5 98.9 100.0 1042 109. 1 107. 8 107. 8 115.4 124. 7 137. 6 90. 6 92. 6 97.0 100. 0 103. 6 107. 5 110. 8 113. 7 117. 4 1972: Feb Mar Apr _ May_ June._ July Aug Sept__ Oct.. Nov.. Dec 102. 6 105. 1 110. 2 113.5 111. 9 114. 9 113. 6 117. 4 119.3 120.2 126.6 108. 6 110. 1 110.8 111. 9 112. 3 114. 1 114. 4 115. 2 117. 5 118. 8 118. 6 99. 5 100. 3 102. 6 103. 0 104.8 104. 8 107. 1 108.3 109.6 110.4 113. 1 94. 7 95.9 100.4 98.9 97.4 98.2 98.4 99.8 102. 1 105. 0 105.9 119. 7 119. 6 119. 9 119. 1 121.8 121.5 121. 1 122. 8 128, 1 128,2 124 3 101. 1 103. 7 106. 1 104. 9 105. 9 104 8 106. 8 108.0 109. 1 109. 1 110. 7 112. 6 112. 6 112. 3 114. 1 115. 1 115. 2 116. 4 115. 3 118.6 120. 9 120. 6 132.6 133. 4 136. 1 137. 5 137. 1 137.4 139. 9 141. 1 141.6 140.8 141. 5 115. 9 116. 3 117. 6 117. 1 117. 6 116. 8 117. 6 118. 8 117. 8 118.9 118.3 1973: Jan Feb » _ Mar " 126. 7 126. 7 126. 0 119. 8 121. 9 123.9 113, 2 113. 7 115. 9 106. 6 109, 9 109.9 126. 8 127.3 110.0 109. 9 110. 6 144 8 145. 5 146. 6 118. 2 119. 4 119.6 91. 0 947 75. 9 83. 8 94 1 100. 0 109. 6 118.4 na 2 Source: Board of Governors oi the Federal Reserve System. 11 WEEKLY INDICATORS OF PRODUCTION Most weekly indicators of production increased again in March. MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS MILLIONS OF TONS 1 |AI i i I i i i ! I i t i I i i i ! i I i I I I i 1 1 I I I III I I I t i I I I I I I ! I I ! 1 > I I yj J F M A M J J A S O N . D BILLIONS OF KILOWATT HOURS 40 6 jy ! I I I I I I M I I I I 1 I I I ' \ 1 I I I I Pi I I I I t I 1 I I I I I I I I I I ill f ( t I J F M A M J J A S O N D THOUSANDS 35 30 25 tli f ' L J t t i 1 ? j ; i f f f i I t ! t I t f t t'l i i i I i f i I i i i t f !M 1 I t r I i f t IA J F M A M J J A S O N D ft LiJ f I f f f t f f ft t f M I > M f r i ? ! I t i t I ! . t I . M , I M , I , . . I f M j J F M A M J J SOURCES: AMERICAN IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR. fDiSOM ELECTRIC INSTITUTE, AND WARD'S AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS Period Weekly average: 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 ^ 1972: Feb Mar Apr _ _ _ May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1973: Jan Feb.. Mar » Week ended: 1973: Mar 3 10 17 24. 31 Apr 7* 14* includes data for Alaska. Not charted. 2 IS Steel p roduced Index Thousands (1967= of net tons 100) A S O N D COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Electric Bituminous Freight Paperboard Car s arid triicks power coal mined loaded produced assemb led (thoiisands) distributed (thousands (thousands (thousands (millions of of short of cars) Total Cars Trucks of tons) kilowatt-hours) tons) l 2, 572 2, 440 2,515 2,709 2,522 2,310 2,549 2,411 2, 616 2,701 2,694 2,559 2,340 2,447 2,550 2, 631 2,657 2, 687 2,793 2,906 2,950 105. 4 100.0 103. 1 111. 0 103. 4 94. 7 1045 98.8 107.2 110.7 110.4 104.9 95.9 100.3 104.5 107.9 108.9 110.2 114.5 119. 1 120. 9 21, 971 23, 169 25, 244 27, 588 29, 317 30, 923 33, 540 33, 323 31, 692 31, 372 31, 402 34, 174 35, 905 36, 374 34, 360 32, 547 33, 674 35, 264 35, 861 35, 800 33, 643 10, 267 10, 627 10, 485 10, 779 11, 595 10, 619 11, 346 10, 879 11, 546 11, 651 11, 961 10, 878 9,428 11, 582 11, 404 11, 498 11,211 9,964 10, 598 11, 059 11, 116 570 540 543 543 522 486 501 464 495 507 515 514 459 521 524 551 524 471 491 509 515 446 439 479 507 489 501 548 536 558 549 569 558 517 566 529 576 564 498 512 583 593 199. 3 165.4 172.9 142. 4 207.6 170.1 195. 8 158. 1 158. 9 125. 9 204 8 165.0 217.2 169.6 226. 1 176. 5 225. 1 175.4 249. 5 194. 3 238.4 185. 5 230. 7 180. 9 120. 5 93. 1 152. 8 116. 9 225. 5 180.9 257.6 203. 1 257. 1 200. 9 202. 5 157.7 261. 3 201. 5 277. 6 213. 3 276. 1 212. 1 33. 9 30.5 37.5 37. 8 33. 0 39. 8 47.5 49.6 49. 7 55. 1 52. 9 49. 8 27. 4 35. 9 44. 6 54. 5 56. 3 44. 7 59.8 64. 3 64. 1 2,919 2, 923 2,977 2,984 2,963 2,967 3,002 119. 6 119. 8 122. 0 122. 3 121. 4 121. 6 123. 0 34, 639 33, 452 33, 552 34, 171 33, 398 33, 479 33, 957 11, 725 11, 350 10, 680 10, 685 11, 750 10, 050 2 11, 150 529 514 509 512 524 511 521 592 594 611 574 593 584 273. 0 275. 0 273. 8 275. 9 279. 8 274. 8 279. 7 61. 9 64. 2 63.6 62.7 65. 8 63. 9 64. 5 211. 1 210. 7 210. 2 213. 2 214. 1 210. 8 215. 1 Sources: American Iron and Steel Institute, Edison Electric Institute, Department of the Interior, Association of American Railroads, American Paper Institute, and Ward's Automotive Reports. NEW CONSTRUCTION According to preliminary estimates, expenditures for new construction (seasonally adjusted) dipped slightly in February. A decline in public construction was partially offset by a rise in private construction. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 160 160 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 140 140 120 120 TOTAL NEW CONSTRUCTION 100 100 80 — PRIVATE 80 60 60 40 40 PUBLIC 1 '•••Miiii.iii**** *'" I I i t I i 20 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I "m,«.«,,»^"""4 ••«« I I I I I 1 I I 20 1 I 1 40 20 20 1967 1973 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Total new construction expenditures Period 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972* _- 77. 5 86. 6 93.4 94. 0 109.4 123.6 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Private Total 52. 0 59. 0 65.4 65. 9 79.5 93. 4 Resid ential CommerNew cial and Other Total ! housing industrial units Bi llions of doll ars 25. 6 19. 0 2C . 4 30. 6 24. 0 13. 8 14. 7 33.2 25. 9 16. 2 16. 0 24. 3 16. 3 31. 9 17.8 43. 1 34.9 17.0 19. 4 54.0 18. 1 21. 2 44.6 Federal, State, and local 25. 5 27. 6 28. 0 28. 1 29. 9 30.2 Dec 1973: Jan *_ _ _ _ Feb * _ _ _ 115. 6 120. 8 121. 8 122. 9 120.4 122. 1 121. 0 119. 8 122. 9 124. 8 128.9 126.3 132.0 135. 7 135. 3 85.2 88.6 90. 9 92.5 91. 5 92. 3 92. 4 91. 6 93. 7 94.2 96.0 97.1 97. 9 101. 1 102. 4 47. 9 49. 6 51. 9 53. 1 52.7 52. 3 52. 9 53.5 54. 3 55.5 56.3 57. 1 57. 4 58.0 59. 6 38. 7 40. 4 42. 8 44. 0 43. 6 43. 3 43. 7 44. 0 44. 7 45. 9 46.7 47.5 47. 6 48. 2 49. 6 'Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations, not shown separately. 2 F. W. Dodge series. Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971 for floor space. 17. 3 18. 2 17. 9 18.0 18. 1 18. 9 18.4 17. 6 18.2 17.9 18.1 17.9 18. 5 20.4 20. 0 100. 113. 123. 123. 145. 165. 0 2 7 1 4 3 Seasonally adjusted Seasonall y adjusted at inual rates 1971: Dec 1972: Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct... _ _ _ Nov I Constructio n contracts 2 CommerTotal value cial and index, industrial (1967 = floor space 100) (millions of square feet) 20.0 20. 8 21. 0 21. 4 20.7 21. 1 21. 1 20.5 21. 1 20. 8 21.6 22.0 22. 0 22, 6 22. 9 30.3 32. 2 30.9 30. 4 28. 9 29.8 28.6 28. 3 29. 2 30. 6 32.8 29. 3 34. 1 34.6 33. 0 160 160 155 159 167 165 154 155 180 187 171 177 163 181 191 694 779 883 743 727 858 Seasonally adjusted annual rates 800 716 801 800 786 983 846 813 908 896 895 992 946 1,031 1,037 Sources: Department of Commerce and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. 19 NEW HOUSING STARTS AND APPLICATIONS FOR FINANCING Private housing starts fell from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.46 million units in February to 2.26 millic units in March. The first quarter rate of 2.40 million units was the same as in the fourth quarter of last year. Permits for future housing declined 4 percent in March. MILLIONS OF UNITS 3.0 MILLIONS OF UNITS 3.0 25 1967 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT, AND VETERANS ADMINISTRATION [Thousands of units] Hou sing star ts ' Total private Total and private public (including (including farm) farm) Period 1967 . 1968 1969 1970 1971. __ __ 1972 ^_ _ _ 1972: Feb Mar Apr. _ _ May ___ ___ June July Aug... _ _ _ _ Sept _ _„ Oct.. _ Nov Dec 1973: Jan Feb » Mar * 1 2 1, 321. 9 1, 545. 4 1, 499. 5 1, 469. 0 2, 084. 5 2, 378. 5 153. 6 205. 8 213. 2 227. 9 226. 2 207. 5 231. 0 204. 4 218. 2 187. 1 152. 7 147. 3 139.5 201. 2 Total (includiniI farm) Total 1, 291. 6 1, 291. 6 1, 507. 6 1, 507. 6 1, 466. 8 1, 466. 8 1, 433. 6 1, 433. 6 2, 052. 2 2, 052. 2 2, 356. 6 2, 356. 6 152. 2 203. 9 211. 6 225. 8 223. 1 206. 5 228. 6 203. 0 216. 5 185. 7 150. 5 146. 6 138. 0 199. 7 2,540 2, 313 2,204 2, 318 2, 315 2, 244 2,424 2,426 2,446 2,395 2, 369 2,497 2, 457 2, 259 Gover nment home p rograms (noni arm) Two or more FHA* VA units 843.9 447. 7 141. 9 52. 5 899.4 608. 2 147. 7 56. 1 810. 6 656. 2 153. 6 51. 2 812. 9 620. 7 233. 5 61. 0 1, 151. 0 901. 2 301. 2 94. 0 1, 309. 2 1, 047. 2 198.4 104. 0 Seasona lly ad jus }ed annu al 1,281 1, 260 285 118 | 1, 310 1,003 260 123 1, 215 989 221 104 1,308 197 100 1,011 1,283 1,032 182 99 1, 319 925 107 176 1,373 1, 051 179 103 1,382 1,045 175 106 1,315 1, 131 149 98 1,324 1,071 92 125 1,207 1, 162 106 86 1, 450 1,047 87 96 1,080 111 1, 377 105 92 1,239 1,020 101 One unit Units are for 1- to 4-family housing. Authorized by issuance of local building permit: in 13,000 lennit-issuing places beginning 1967; 12,000 for 1683-66, and 10,000 prior to 1963. 20 Propos 3d home constriiction s Private New private housing units authorized 2 1, 141. 0 1, 353. 4 1, 323. 7 1, 351. 5 1, 924. 6 2, 129. 0 rates 2, 056 2,007 1, 991 1, 955 2, 121 2, 108 2, 237 2, 265 2, 216 2, 139 2, 377 2,218 2, 191 2, 093 Applica- Requests tions for f o r V A FHA appraiscommitals ments 1 167. 2 168. 9 187. 6 315. 0 366. 8 225. 2 124. 3 131. 7 138.2 143. 7 217. 9 209. 4 323 264 227 222 221 224 207 166 147 162 131 124 100 4 93 226 209 243 198 219 200 202 192 189 207 194 222 217 201 3 Units represented by inc 'age applications or appraisal requests for home construction. 4 Not charted. Sources: Department of Commerce, Department of Housing and Urba Development, and Veterans Administration. BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—TOTAL AND TRADE Business sales (seasonally adjusted) rose about 1% percent in February while inventories were up $1.8 billion. AccordIng to advance reports, retail sales rose 2 percent in March following a revised 1% percent increase in February. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED? RETAIL TRADE (ENLARGED SCALE) 25 — DURABLE GOODS STORES 20 INVENTORIES 15 SALES 10 35 30 25 20 20 1973 1970 1973 1970 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total tmsiness l ReJtaii Wholesale Sales 2 Period 1965 1966 1967 1968___ 1969 1970 1971 1972 1972: Jan Feb Mar Apr Mav June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1973: Jan Feb* Mar * Sales 2 80, 276 87, 178 89, 698 97, 100 103, 104 104, 407 111, 931 124, 571 118, 426 118, 077 _ _ 120, 669 121, 685 122, 814 122, 283 123, 371 126, 458 127, 056 129, 610 131, 478 132, 766 136, 761 138, 782 _. Inventories 3 Sales2 120, 136, 145, 155, 166, 174, 182, 193, 183, 183, 184, 184, 185, 186, 186, 188, 189, 190, 192, 193, 195, 197, 15, 595 16, 979 17, 099 18, 329 19, 726 20, 554 22, 280 24, 850 24, 351 23, 533 23, 884 24, 170 24, 260 24, 230 24, 394 25, 137 25, 407 25, 779 26, 212 26, 962 27, 755 28, 354 900 729 108 336 694 942 842 479 303 826 263 816 953 439 884 409 759 974 318 479 657 414 1 The term "business" also Includes manufacturing 3 Monthly average for year and total for month. * Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. Inventories 3 IMillions of 18, 274 20, 691 21, 557 22, 528 24, 363 26, 604 28, 916 31, 732 29, 049 29, 181 29, 174 29, 574 29, 729 29, 641 30, 056 30, 164 30, 657 31, 032 31, 289 31, 732 32, 582 32, 961 NonDurable durable goods Total goods stores stores dollars, seasonally aAdjusted 23, 677 7, 849 15, 828 8, 192 17, 138 25, 330 26, 151 8,348 17, 803 9,268 19, 222 28, 490 29, 824 9,626 20, 197 31, 294 9, 524 21, 770 34, 071 10, 985 23, 086 37, 365 12, 472 24, 893 34, 886 11, 475 23, 411 35, 345 11, 457 23, 888 36, 450 12, 087 24, 363 36, 296 11, 976 24, 320 37, 141 12, 280 24, 861 36, 822 12, 253 24, 569 37, 342 12, 468 24, 874 37, 969 12, 842 25, 127 37, 746 12, 614 25, 132 39, 106 13, 168 25, 938 38, 713 13, 173 25, 540 39, 417 13, 640 25, 777 40, 707 14, 234 26, 473 41, 305 14, 392 26, 913 42, 274 14, 871 27, 403 Inventories Total Durable goods stores 34, 405 38, 073 38, 952 41, 973 45, 376 46, 626 52, 261 54, 700 52, 458 52, 484 52, 639 52, 814 53, 402 53, 293 52, 940 53, 107 53, 661 53, 934 54, 658 54, 700 55, 526 56, 039 15, 253 17, 258 17, 277 19, 167 20, 647 20, 345 23, 808 24, 442 23, 790 23, 679 23, 674 23, 740 23, 915 23, 665 23, 194 23, 037 23, 608 23, 675 24, 235 24, 442 24, 472 24, 638 3 Nondurable goods stores 19, 152 20, 815 21, 675 22, 806 24, 729 26, 281 28, 453 30, 258 28, 668 28, 805 28, 965 29, 074 29, 487 29, 628 29, 746 30, 070 30, 053 30, 259 30, 423 30, 258 31, 054 31, 401 Source: Department of Commerce. 21 MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND NEW ORDERS Manufacturers* sales, orders, and Inventories (seasonally adjusted) rose in February. The ratio of inventories to sa!es| remained low gauged by the experience of recent years. Advance reports for March indicate a further rise in new orders for durable goods. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) MANUFACTlJRERS' 1NVEN1["OR1ES _^ X 100 \ \ ^^'^^^ TOTAL 90 80 iDURABLE 40 \ ^-~- 20 MANUFACTtJRERS' NEW CORDERS [HJRABLE GOODS \ 70 ^* -—•""" 50 GOODS vs/"" r^^X^i^^ ~~~~ 30 """**„•.•»""»«•««»!,.„,»* "B"""m" Bk NO sIDURABLE GOO 3S L .*»* V \ NONDURAB JE GOODS 20 /I ! I I ! I I I I 1 ! 1 1970 ! 1 1 ! ! 1 I 1 1 ! 1 ! 1 1 1 1 1 1 I t ! I 1971 1972 30 I 1 1 I ! 1 I ! L LI K 1973 /[l I 1 ! 1 1 I I | 1 1 V ! ! 1 ! 1 I ! 1 ! I! 1 1 I 1 1 1 ! 1 ! 1 I 1971 1972 1970 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Total I 1 ! ! ! 1 ! 1 ! 1 IN M 1973 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manufac }urers' shi pments l Manufacl urers' inv entories 2 Period "*" NonDurable durable goods goods Total NonDurable durable goods goods Ma nufacture rsj new orders l Total Durafc le goods NonCapital durable goods Total industries. goods nondefense Manufacturers' mventoryshipments3 ratio Millions of dollars seasonal] y ad juste d 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1972: Jan Feb Mar__ _ _ Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1973: Jan Feb *v Mar 1 2 Monthly 44, 869 46, 449 50, 282 53, 555 52, 560 55, 580 62, 356 59, 189 59, 199 60, 335 61, 219 61, 413 61, 231 61, 635 63, 352 63, 903 64, 725 66, 553 66, 387 68, 299 69, 123 24, 633 25, 212 27, 694 29, 459 28, 061 29, 886 34, 106 31, 965 32, 041 32, 683 33, 581 33, 705 33, 129 33, 825 34, 710 35, 037 36, 086 36, 750 36, 378 38, 056 38, 336 38, 148 20, 236 21, 236 22, 588 24, 096 24, 499 25, 694 28, 250 27, 224 27, 158 27, 652 27, 638 27, 708 28, 102 27, 810 28, 642 28, 866 28, 639 29, 803 30, 009 30, 243 30, 787 77, 965 84, 599 90, 835 96, 955 101, 712 101, 665 107, 047 101, 796 102, 161 102, 450 102, 428 102, 822 103, 505 103, 888 105, 138 105, 441 106, 008 106, 371 107, 047 107, 549 108, 414 49, 818 54, 893 59, 053 63, 254 66, 829 65, 874 70, 144 66, 187 66, 422 66, 604 66, 575 67, 035 67, 427 67, 645 68, 542 68, 834 69, 330 69, 641 70, 144 70, 632 71, 117 average for year and total for month. Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted. 3 For annual periods, ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly 22 28, 147 29, 706 31, 782 33, 701 34, 883 35, 791 36, 903 35, 609 35, 739 35, 846 35, 853 35, 787 36, 078 36, 243 36, 596 36, 607 36, 678 36, 730 36, 903 36, 917 37, 297 45, 944 46, 763 50, 267 53, 645 51, 663 55, 473 63, 368 59, 871 59, 792 61, 097 61, 685 62, 012 63, 734 62, 270 64, 409 65, 776 65, 454 67, 587 67, 668 69, 838 71, 042 25, 720 25, 526 27, 690 29, 548 27, 162 29, 768 35, 044 32, 554 32, 466 33, 328 34, 005 34, 302 35, 613 34, 430 35, 727 36, 851 36, 759 37, 619 37, 562 39,414 40, 087 40, 986 6,971 7,694 6, 822 7,398 9, 096 8, 166 8, 196 8,528 8, 785 9,036 9,228 9, 100 9, 211 9,519 9,694 9, 762 10, 072 10, 433 10, 036 10, 144 20, 224 21, 238 22, 577 24, 097 24, 500 25, 705 28, 324 27, 317 27, 326 27, 769 27, 680 27, 710 28, 121 27, 840 28, 682 28, 925 28, 695 29, 968 30, 106 30, 424 30, 955 1.62 1.76 1.74 1.76 1.90 1.83 1.67 1. 72 1. 73 1.70 1. 67 1.67 1. 69 1. 69 1.66 1. 65 1. 64 1. 60 1. 61 1. 57 1. 57 shipments; for monthly data, ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for -^ month. —~~v~. Source. Department of Commerce MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS Reported merchandise imports rose more than exports in March on a seasonally adjusted basis. Both were at record high levels. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 2.0 1967 1973 I ]/ SEE NOTE BELOW. SOURCE: DSPARTMeN-T OF COMMERCE Period COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total (including reexports) l Season- Unadally ad- justed justed Monthly average: 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 197t)___ 1971 _ _ 1972_ [Millions of dollars] I ^erchandi se expor ts MerctLandise iiuports Domesti c exports5 Gen eral imp 3rts* Food, Crude Food, Crude To tal 2 bever- mate- Manubever- mate, 2 Total i i ages, rials facSeasonrials ages, 1 and to- and tured ally ad- Unad- and to- and goods bacco 1 fuels justed justed bacco fuels 2, 153 2, 229 2,458 2,586 2, 839 3, 111 3,555 3,629 4, 101 2, 123 2, 201 2, 421 2,554 2, 802 3, 066 3,502 3,576 4, 034 3,807 3, 778 4, 306 3, 885 4, 141 4, 015 3, 657 3,937 3,964 4,443 4, 583 4, 693 4, 747 4,864 3, 758 3, 721 4, 247 3, 810 4, 075 3, 942 3, 599 3,867 3,894 4, 381 4,497 4, 620 4, 678 4, 795 386 377 432 392 383 370 422 423 548 361 356 367 394 405 417 558 537 591 1, 377 1, 453 1, 602 1, 737 1, 985 2,232 2, 445 2,537 2,812 567 527 610 567 565 557 509 548 478 672 760 731 736 815 2,593 2, 630 3, 116 2, 753 2, 917 2,762 2, 540 2, 710 2, 745 3, 009 2, 928 3,040 3, 114 3, 140 1, 562 1,786 2, 135 2, 241 2, 769 3, 004 3,329 3,797 4, 630 May June Julv_ Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1973: Jan _ _ Feb 4,074 8,824 3,869 3,817 3,885 8,971 4,052 4,200 4,177 4,318 4,473 4,561 4,977 5,065 506 485 426 396 508 528 496 539 594 637 710 750 752 744 \ Total excludes Department of Defense shipments oi grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program. 2 Total includes eommoditias and transactions not classified according to kind. 8 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments. 419 453 476 447 503 533 545 606 737 759 937 1,204 1, 313 1, 719 1, 918 2, 159 2,535 3, 146 590 444 323 345 70 107 226 168 -529 2,820 2, 765 3,401 2, 918 3, 254 3,305 2, 928 3, 232 2,969 3, 393 3, 574 3, 190 3,604 3, 318 — 361 -649 -646 -596 — 597 — 497 — 51-3 — 527 -428 Unad Busted U nadjuste d 1972: Jan__ _ Feb Mar Apr _ __ 335 334 382 392 447 442 519 534 614 Grossmerchandise trade Manu- surplus, seasonfacally adtured justed goods 4,4$5 4,4^3 4,515 4,413 4,482 4,468 4,565 4,726 4,606 4,736 5,136 5,002 5,281 5,541 4,278 4, 180 4, 844 4, 248 4, 722 4, 766 4, 314 4, 727 4,485 5, 007 5, 190 4, 795 5, 423 4, 94-5 630 626 554 544 604 614 548 632 628 692 662 639 726 645 702 673 756, 659 731 715 712 72-8 756 775 810 822 930 853 NOTE.—Data adjusted to include silver ore amcl bu.ll.io« reported se' prior to 1969. Source: Department of Commerce. -418 -664 -441 -304 — 476 23 U.S. BALANCES ON GOODS, SERVICES, AND TRANSFERS In 1972, the deficit for merchandise trade was $6.8 billion/ compared to $2.7 billion in 1971. This was the largest trade deficit in U.S. history. The deficit on current account was $8.0 billion, compared to a deficit of $2.8 billion in 1971. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1966 1972 SOUICE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] M erchandis 5 12 Period Exports Imports Net balance Netiiavestment i ncome MilitJiry trans actions Direct expenditures Sales Net balance -3, 138 -3, 143 -3, 344 -3, 374 -2, 894 -3,541 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 * 30, 638 -26,821 3,817 -4, 378 33, 576 -32, 964 612 -4, 535 36, 417 -35, 796 621 -4, 856 41, 963 -39,799 2,164 -4, 852 42, 787 -45,453 -2,666 -4,816 48, 840 -55, 656 -6,816 -4, 707 1,240 1, 392 1, 512 1,478 1 ? 922 1,166 1971: I II III _ _ IV___ 1972: I II III.. IV *__ 10, 872 -10, 727 145 -1, 175 10, 805 -11,695 -890 — 1, 214 11, 527 -11,914 -387 -1, 198 9,583 -11,117 -1,534 — 1, 230 11, 659 -13, 490 -1,831 -1, 218 11, 561 -13, 338 -1, 777- 1, 239 12, 380 — 13, 905 - 1, 525 — 1, 101 13, 240 -14, 923 — 1, 683 — 1, 149 510 516 474 423 334 281 251 299 Private 3 U.S. Government Ilemittances, pensions, and other unilateral transfers 1 5, 136 -3, 081 2,425 -2, 909 1, 911 — 2, 946 3,563 -3, 208 750 -3, 574 -4, 219 -3, 764 Net Baltravel Other ance and on trans- servporta- ices, goods and tion net servexpendices 1 4 itures 5,847 40 -1,763 6, 157 63 -1, 565 5,820 155 - 1, 784 6,376 -115 -2,061 8,952 -957 -2, 432 9,779 -1,878 -2, 583 334 302 442 574 748 819 Balance on current account 2, 055 484 -1,035 356 -2,824 -7, 983 Seaso nally ad; usted -665 -698 -724 -807 -884 -958 -850 -850 J Excludes military grants. from Census data for differences in timing and coverage. Includes fees and royalties from U.S. direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States. 2 Adjusted 3 24 1,899 2,352 2,038 2,663 2,249 2,214 2,477 2,838 -101 -161 -327 -368 -370 -426 — 556-525 -498 -625 -606 -703 -667 -645 -613 -660 212 992 158 180 182 176 172 -577 200 -1,303 192 - 1, 400 -864 203 224 -656 -791 -846 — 946 -992 -990 -918 -906 -950 201 -688 -770 - 1, 569 - 2, 293 -2, 318 -1, 770 -1,606 4 Equal to net exports of goods and services in the national income and product accounts of the United States when converted to an annual rates basis. Source: Department of Commerce. U.S. OVERALL BALANCES ON INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In 1972, the U.S. balance of payments on an official reserve transactions basis was in deficit by $10 billion, compared to a deficit of $30 biHion in 1971. The smaller deficit was the result of a sharp reduction in short-term capital flows. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 5 B1UJONS OF DOLLARS 5 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED OFFICIAL RESERVE ' TRANSACTIONS BALANCE" BALANCE ON CURRENT ACCOUNT AND LONG-TERM CAPITAL -5 -to -15 -15 1966 I 1967 1972 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Millions of dollars] Period 1967 1968 1969 1970_ 1971 1972 T> Long-ter m capital Balance NonAlloflows , net liquid , shortnf term special account private U.S. GovernPrivate 2 and long- capital drawing ment 1 flows2 capital rights net -2,424 -2, 912 -2, 159 1, 198 — 1, 926 -50 -2,018 — 1,398 -2,378 -4, 079 -1,367 107 -3,280 — 522 - 1, 444 230 — 3, Oil — 640 — 3, 059 -482 -9, 281 -2, 386 -9,243 -1,634 Changes in lia- Changes bilities in U.S. official to foreign reserve official assets, agencies, net 4 3 net U.S. official reserve assets, net (end of period) 52 -881 -4,683 1,265 3,418 3,366 -399 -1,610 1, 641 3, 251 -761 -880 8,824 -2,470 -6, 122 2, 702 — 1, 515 — 1, 187 867 - 1, 174 -3,851 -5,988 -9,839 7,362 2,477 717 -11,054 -22,002 -7, 763-29,765 27, 417 2,348 710 -3,806 - 13, 974 3,677 - 10, 297 10, 265 32 14, 830 15, 710 16, 964 14, 487 6 12, 167 13, 151 Errors and omissions, net Net liquidity balance Liquid private capital flows, net 2 Official reserve transactions balance Unadjusted Seas>onally ad justed 1971: I II III __ IV___ 1972: I II III — 9 IV -. 1 — 702 — 922 -1,423 -534 — 584 -1,605 -2,877 -315 -558 -1,883 -3,211 -883 -533 330 - 1, 772 -654 -343 -1,081 -3, 717 — 508 -95 592 750 - 1, 663 -322 -254 -2, 346 -507 -607 690 — 1, 523 -1,211 180 179 179 179 178 178 177 177 -800 -2,708 -5,465 -2,082 942 — 1, 314 -1,825 -1,608 Excludes liabilities to foreign official reserve agencies. -Private foreigners exclude the IMF, but include other international and regional organizations. s Includes liabilities to foreign official agencies reported by U.S. Government and U.S. banks and U.S. liabilities to the IMF arising from reversible gold sales to,4 and gold deposits with, the United States. Official reserve assets include gold, special drawing rights, convertible currencies, and the U.S. gold tranche position in the IMF. -2, 577 -2,848 -5, 425 4,743 -5, 721 -745 -6,466 5,807 -9, 380 -2, 551 — 11, 931 10, 737 -4, 329 — 1, 619 -5, 948 6, 135 -3, 105 -119 -3, 224 2,795 -821 -2,207 1, 052 1, 386 -173 — 4, 674 4, 729 -4,501 1, 693 -4, 165 2,583 — 1, 582 5 682 659 1, 194 -187 429 -231 -55 -111 14, 342 13, 504 12, 131 •12, 167 12, 270 7 13, 339 13, 217 13, 151 5 Includes gain of $6? million resulting from revaluation of the German mark in 6October 1969. Includes $28 million increase in dollar value of foreign currencies revalued to reflect market exchange rates as of Dec. 31,1971. 7 Includes increase of $1,016 million resulting from change in par value of the U.S. dollar on May 8. Sources: Department of Commerce and Treasury Department. 25 PRICES CONSUMER PRICES The consumer price index increased 0.9 percent in March, the largest unadjusted rise in 22 years (after seasonal adjustment the index was up 0.8 percent). Food prices, up 2.6 percent (2.5 percent adjusted), were the biggest element in the March rise. Nonfood commodities increased 0.5 percent (0.3 percent adjusted) and services were up 0.3 percent. Index, 1967=100 Index, 1967=100 140 110 100 100 1973 1967 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS All items Period 1964 1965_-_ 1966 1967__ 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1972: Feb Mar_ AprMav June July Aug Sept_ Oct_ Nov Dec. 1973: Jan Feb Mar _ _ ___ _ _ Source: Bepartmeot of Labor. 26 __ _ 92. 9 94.5 97.2 100. 0 104. 2 109. 8 116. 3 121. 3 125. 3 123. 8 124. 0 124. 3 124.7 125. 0 125. 5 125. 7 126. 2 126. 6 126. 9 127. 3 127. 7 128. 6 129.8 [1967 = 100] Services Co mmodities3 Conim odities leg38 food Services All comAll Food Rent less Nonmodities services All Durable durable rent 94.6 95. 7 98. 2 100. 0 103. 7 108.4 113. 5 117. 4 120. 9 119. 4 119. 7 119. 9 120.3 120. 7 121. 2 121. 4 122. 0 122. 3 122. 7 122. 9 123.4 124. 5 126. 1 92.4 94.4 99. 1 100. 0 103.6 108.9 114. 9 118. 4 123. 5 122. 2 122. 4 122.4 122. 3 123. 0 124. 2 124. 6 124.8 124. 9 125.4 126.0 128.6 131. 1 134.5 95.6 96. 2 97. 5 100. 0 103. 7 108. 1 112. 5 116. 8 119.4 117. 8 118. 2 118. 5 119.2 119. 4 119. 4 119. 5 120. 3 120.8 121. 0 121. 1 120. 5 120. 9 121.5 98. 8 98. 4 98. 5 100. 0 103. 1 107. 0 111.8 116. 5 118.9 117. 1 117. 3 117. 7 118. 4 119. 2 119. 6 119. 7 119.8 120. 1 120. 3 120. 3 119. 9 119. 9 120.2 93. 5 94. 8 97. 0 100. 0 104. 1 108. 8 113. 1 117. 0 119. 8 118. 4 118. 9 119. 1 119. 7 119. 5 119. 3 119. 4 120. 8 121. 3 121. 7 121. 7 120. 9 121.6 122. 4 90. 2 92. 2 95. 8 100. 0 105. 2 112. 5 121. 6 128. 4 133. 3 131. 8 132. 1 132.4 132.7 133. 1 133. 5 133. 8 134. 1 134. 6 134.9 135. 4 135. 7 136. 2 136.6 95. 9 96. 9 98. 2 100. 0 102. 4 105. 7 110. 1 115. 2 119. 2 117. 8 118. 0 118. 4 118. 6 119. 0 119. 2 119. 6 119. 9 120. 3 120. 5 121. 0 121. 5 122. 1 122.6 89. 2 91. 5 95. 3 100. 0 105. 7 113. 8 123. 7 130. 8 135. 9 134. 4 134. 6 135. 0 135. 3 135. 7 136. 1 136. 4 136. 7 137. 2 137. 6 138. 0 138. 3 138. 7 139. 2 WHOLESALE PRICES [he wholesale price index rose 2.2 percent in March both before and after allowance for seasonal factors. This sharp ise mainly reflected further strong increases in farm products; up 6.6 percent (6.1 percent adjusted), and processed foods and feeds, which were 3.2 percent higher (3.5 percent seasonally adjusted). Industrial commodities prices increased 1.2 percent both unadjusted and adjusted. index, 1967=100 180 f Index, 1967=100 180 170 - 110 100 90 90 1967 1973 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [1967=100] • - "• - -'"• Period 1964 _ 1965 1966_____. 1967 19681969 _ _ 1970 1971 1972 1972: Feb Mar Apr _ May - _ June__ _ _ July Aug___ Sept Oct Nov Dec 1973: Jan Feb Mar. _ _ _ _ _ Ail commodities 94.7 96. 6 99. 8 100. 0 102.5 106. 5 110. 4 113. 9 119. 1 117. 3 117. 4 117. 5 118. 2 118. 8 119. 7 119. 9 120.2 120. 0 120. 7 122. 9 124.5 126. 9 129.7 Farm products All industrials1 Crude mate-2 94. 6 98. 7 105. 9 100. 0 102.5 109. 1 111. 0 112. 9 125. 0 120. 7 119. 7 119. 1 122. 2 124. 0 128. 0 128. 2 128. 6 125. 5 128. 8 137. 5 144. 2 150. 9 160.9 92. 3 95. 5 101. 2 100. 0 102. 2 107. 3 112. 0 114. 3 120. 8 118. 8 118. 6 117. 7 118. 6 119.6 121. 5 121. 0 121. 8 121. 8 123. 1 129.4 132.4 137. 0 141.4 95. 2 96. 4 98. 5 100.0 102. 5 106. 0 110. 0 114. 0 117. 9 116. 5 116. 8 117. 3 117. 6 117. 9 118. 1 118. 5 118. 7 118. 8 119. 1 119.4 120. 0 121. 3 122. 7 97. 1 100.9 104. 5 100. 0 102. 0 110. 6 118. 8 122. 7 131. 1 127. 0 129. 1 129. 3 129. 9 129. 8 130. 2 132. 3 132. 6 133. 8 136. 3 136. 8 139. 1 142. 3 142.5 1 Coverage of the subgroups does not correspond exactly to coverage of this index. leaf!oXScotS CrUde f°°dstufis and feedstuffs> Plant and anlmai flbers»oilsee<is'and Iiidus trial c,ommodit] es Processed foods and feeds Inter- Producmediate er finmate-3 ished rials goods 95.6 96. 9 98. 9 100. 0 102. 6 106. 1 110. 0 114. 3 118.9 117. 2 117. 6 118. 2 118. 6 119. 0 119. 2 119. 5 119.8 120. 1 120. 3 120. 5 121. 2 122. 6 124.8 93. 3 94. 4 96.8 100. 0 103. 5 106. 9 111. 9 116. 6 119. 5 118. 8 119. 0 119. 3 119. 4 119. 6 119. 7 119. 8 119. 9 119. 7 119. 9 120. 3 120. 6 121. 2 121.7 Consur ner finished g Dods excludin g foods DurNondurable able 98. 2 97. 9 98. 5 100. 0 102. 2 104. 0 107. 1 110. 9 113. 2 113. 2 113. 1 113.2 113. 1 113. 2 113. 5 113. 6 113. 7 112. 7 112. 8 113. 7 113. 8 114. 0 114.5 94.8 95. 9 97. 8 100. 0 102. 2 105. 0 108. 2 111. 3 113. 6 112. 1 112. 4 112. 7 113. 1 113. 5 113. 8 114. 2 114. 5 114. 7 115. 0 115. 2 115. 4 117. 4 117.8 3 Excludes intermediate materials for food manufacturing and manufactured animal feeds; includes, in part, grain products for further processing. source: Department of Labor. £1 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS In the month ended March 1 5/ prices received by farmers rose 6% percent while prices paid rose actual and adjusted parity ratios each advanced 4 points. percent. The Index, 1967=100 Index, 1967=100 160 I 150 150 140 140 PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES 130 130 120 110 100 100 ±J 90 RATIO J/ yo RATIO J/ 90: PJ^RITY RATIO (ACTU/a) / on 80 'X^x-x^* -**S~*-s- "\........... .„ 70 . 1_Ssr^_ 60 70 -^.....HUtf,,—-—-gMAHZ. 'v '* ! ! ! I I 11I 1' t ! ! t ! 1 1 ! T ! 1 ! ! ! ! f 1 1 1 ! I 1 ! ! ! ! f i 1 ! ! 1 ! 1 ! J 1 ! 1 I ! f 1! ! 1 1 1 ! 1 I f ! ! I ! ! ! ! ! 1 ! ! t ! 1 1 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 60 J/RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID, INTEREST, TAXES, AND WAGE RATES, ON 19HM4-100 BASE. SOURCE* DEPARTMENT OF AGRICUITURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Prices received by farmers Period 1964. 1965_ 1966_ 1967. 1968. 1969. 1970. 1971. 1972. 1972: Feb 15Mar 15. Apr 15.. May 15 _ June 15. July 15 _ Aug 15.. Sept 15. Oct 15__ Nov 15. Dec 15__ 1973: Jan 15 _ Feb 15 __ Mar 15. All farm products 93 98 105 100 103 108 110 112 126 122 120 119 123 125 127 128 128 129 130 137 144 149 159 Crops 106 103 105 100 101 97 100 107 116 110 108 112 115 116 116 119 117 116 120 127 131 132 140 Prices paid by farmers items, Family Livestock All Producinterest, and living tion taxes, and products wage rates items items Index, 1967=100 92 94 85 93 94 94 96 95 105 98 98 99 100 100 100 100 104 102 104 104 117 106 109 109 114 118 114 110 116 120 119 115 124 122 133 127 131 123 118 123 124 129 123 119 125 125 120 123 129 124 120 125 121 124 131 126 127 122 136 125 127 122 135 125 137 124 128 126 138 129 125 125 130 138 127 126 145 131 127 129 134 132 153 129 134 161 131 136 174 132 138 138 1 Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index oi prices paid, Interest, taxes, and wage rates on 1910-14=100 base. 28 Parity ratio Actual 76 77 80 74 73 74 72 70 74 73 72 71 73 74 75 75 75 75 75 78 80 82 86 J Adjusted 2 80 82 86 79 79 80 77 74 79 78 77 76 78 79 80 80 80 80 80 83 83 85 89 2 The adjusted parity ratio reflects Government payments made directly to farmers. Source: Department of Agriculture. MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK The rate of growth of the seasonally adjusted money stock slowed substantially in March. Money increased at a 0.5 percent annual rate, down from 6.3 percent in February. For the first quarter it grew at a 2.1 percent annual rate. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 350 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 350 AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 300 300 TIME AND SAVINGS DEPOSITS / 250 250 200 200 150 150 1967 1973 SOURCE: BOARD Of GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Averages of daily figures, billions of dollars] j VI one y stoc k Time CurCurand DeDerency rency savings mand mand outoutTotal dededeside side posits l posits1 posits l banks banks SeasonallyT adjusted Unadjustec 1 40. 4 151.4 146. 6 41. 2 192. 7 183. 1 43. 4 158. 2 44. 3 163.4 204. 2 207.7 162. 7 46. 1 194.4 214. 9 46.9 167.9 172.2 49. 1 50. 0 177.8 229. 2 227. 7 52. 6 183.4 53.5 270. 9 242.8 189. 2 56.8 198. 7 312. 8 262. 9 57.8 205. 0 53.2 52. 6 185. 8 184. 0 278. 6 236. 5 187. 7 53. 6 281. 3 53. 1 185. 9 239. 0 53. 9 284. 3 53.5 189. 1 244. 3 190.8 54. 2 189.6 53. 9 185. 6 288.6 239. 5 54.4 190. 7 243.2 291. 7 54. 4 188. 8 54.6 193. 1 55. 1 295. 0 246.6 191.5 54.8 193.8 55. 1 190. 5 298. 9 245. 5 55.3 301. 9 194.8 248.7 55. 2 193. 5 55.7 195.9 304. 8 55. 7 195. 5 251. 2 56.2 196.5 308.4 56.7 197. 7 254.3 56.8 57. 8 198. 7 262. 9 205. 0 312.8 56.7 57.0 198. 4 316. 9 262. 6 205. 9 254. 0 57.5 199. 3 322. 6 56. 7 197. 3 57. 9 254. 3 57. 3 198. 9 330. 9 196. 9 j>klonev stock Period Total 1967: 1968: 1969: 1970: 1971: 1972: 1972: Dec Dec_ Dec Dec Dec Dec__ Feb Mar___ Apr May__ June July Aug__ _ Sept.. _ . _ Oct. Nov _ Dec_._ __ 1973: Jan Feb ^ _ _ Mar » 1 __ __ Deposits at commercial banks. 187.0 201. 6 208. 8 221. 3 236. 0 255. 5 239. 1 241.4 243. 0 243.8 245. 1 247.7 248. 6 250. 1 251. 6 252.7 255. 5 255. 4 256. 7 256. 8 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Time and savings deposits 1 182. 1 203.2 193.2 228. 1 269.8 311. 7 278.4 282.0 284.5 288. 6 291.4 294.0 299.5 302.7 305.9 307.7 311.7 316. 6 322. 5 331. 4 U.S. Government demand deposits l 5.0 5.0 5.6 7.3 6.9 7.3 7.4 7.9 7.7 10. 5 6.9 7.3 5.3 5.9 6.6 6.2 7.3 8.0 9.6 10. 1 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 29 PRIVATE LIQUID HOLDINGS - NONFINANCIAL INVESTORS Liquid asset holdings of private nonfinancial investors (seasonally adjusted) increased by $10 billion in March.1 Negotiable certificates of deposit accounted for more than half of the gain. BILLIONS OF BILLiONS OF DOLLARS AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1100 1,000 1,000 900 900 800 800 700. 700 600 600 ..--p \ CURRENCY AND DEPOSITS 500 500 400 400 300 300 M 1I 1! ! 1I I 1967 1968 1970 1969 1971 1972 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 1973 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] Cum311 cy and deposits Total liquid assets Period Time cieposits Total Currency Demand deposits mercial banks 1966: 1967: 1968: 1969: 1970: 1971: 1972: Dec Dec _ Dec Dec _ _ _ Dec__ Dec__ Dec U.S. Crovernmeiit S€jcurities ShortNonbank term thrift Savings marketinstitubonds able setions curities Negotiable certificates of deposit Commercial paper 590. 6 640. 7 699. 1 730. 9 781. 5 865. 7 976. 1 473.7 520. 4 563. 2 582. 2 630. 7 719. 3 814. 5 38. 3 40. 4 43. 4 46. 1 49. 1 52. 6 56.8 121. 1 129. 4 139. 4 143. 6 151. 5 161. 3 174.7 136. 9 156. 3 174.4 177. 2 198,7 233.4 264.8 177. 3 194. 2 205. 9 215. 4 231.4 272.0 318. 2 50. 1 51. 0 51. 4 51. 1 51. 3 53.7 57.0 43. 6 39. 9 47. 2 65. 3 53. 8 41. 5 43. 8 14. 5 19. 1 22. 4 9. 0 23. 0 29. 8 39. 2 10. 4 14. 9 23. 4 22. 6 21.5 21. 6 1972: Feb _ Mar Apr_ _ May__ June July Aug — Sept _ _ Oct. _ Nov.. Dec__ 883. 1 893. 4 902. 6 910. 4 918. 1 927. 3 935. 9 944. 4 953. 3 963. 8 976. 1 738. 3 747. 7 754. 4 760. 3 767. 1 775. 7 783. 3 790. 9 799. 1 805. 9 814. 5 53. 2 53. 6 53. 9 54. 2 54. 4 54. 6 54. 8 55. 3 55. 7 56.2 56.8 163. 9 166. 1 167. 3 167. 1 167.8 169.5 170. 2 171. 2 172. 1 172. 7 174. 7 240.4 243. 0 244. 4 247.0 249. 4 251. 9 254. 9 257. 0 259. 8 262. 2 264. 8 280. 9 285. 0 288.8 292. 0 295. 6 299. 6 303. 4 307. 4 311. 5 314. 9 318. 2 54. 2 54. 5 54.8 55. 1 55. 3 55. 6 55. 9 56. 1 56. 4 56. 7 57. 0 38. 5 39. 2 39. 7 39.7 39. 4 38. 9 39. 1 39. 4 40. 2 42. 1 43. 8 30. 4 30. 6 32. 1 33. 6 34. 3 35. 2 36. 1 36. 7 36. 6 37. 5 39. 2 21. 6 21.5 21. 6 21.8 21. 9 21. 9 21.5 21. 3 21. 0 21.5 21. 6 1973: Jan Feb Mar "__ 981. 1 988. 9 998. 9 821. 1 827.0 831. 0 57. 0 57. 5 57.9 173. 8 174. 2 173. 3 267. 6 268. 9 271.0 322. 7 326.4 328.8 57. 3 57. 6 57. 7 41. 3 39. 4 39. 9 39.9 44. 0 49. 8 21. 5 21. 0 20. 5 _ Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 30 8.8 BANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, DEBITS, AND RESERVES flommercial bank loans and investments (seasonally adjusted) rose at a 21.3 percent annual rate In March and at a 21.5 percent rate in the first quarter. Net borrowed reserves rose $1 77 million in March. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 600 ALL COMMERCIAL 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 INVESTMENTS IN OTHER SECURITIES INVESTMENTS IN U.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES. 100 10C MM I I t 1M 1 I M I I L L ! l_l. 1967 \ I 1 11I \ I 1 M 1968 I ? l I j | | I I I I t !! 1970 1969 1971 _ _ ! ! 1...LJ.1 M LI 0 SOURCE.- BOARD OF GOVERhJORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL Or ECONOMIC ADVISERS All commercial banks (seaso nally adjust ed data) End of period L oans Investrnents Total loans Total, Comand Gov- Other mercial U.S. invest- excludernment ments ing inter- and indus- securities securities bank trial Bank debits outside New York City (232 centers), seasonally adjusted annual rates l £ill membe r banks ^ Total reserves Billions of dollars 1967 1968 . 1969 1970 1971 _ __ 1972 1972: Mar Apr_ _ _ May _ _ June _ Julv Aug Sept _ _ Oct. Nov__ _ Dec. _ _ 1973: Jan__ Feb »v Mar 1 3 352.0 390. 6 402. 1 435. 9 485. 7 554. 2 505. 0 507.4 516. 1 517. 5 521. 9 529.8 535. 3 540. 4 549.4 554. 2 562. 8 572. 6 581. 9 231. 3 258. 2 279. 4 292. 0 4 320. 6 376. 6 333.8 335. 9 341. 9 343. 7 348.4 356. 2 360. 0 367. 2 373. 6 376. 6 384.3 395.7 404. 7 3 86. 2 95. 9 105. 7 109. 6 115. 5 129. 1 118.4 119. 9 121. 2 6 120. 7 121.4 123. 9 124. 6 126. 7 128. 2 129. 1 133. 0 137. 9 141. 6 3 3 59. 3 61. 0 51. 5 58. 0 60.7 62.0 62.3 62. 6 63. 1 63. 2 62.3 61.4 62. 0 59. 9 60. 6 62. 0 62.0 60. 2 60. 6 Debits during period to demand deposit accounts except interbank and U.S. Government. 2 Averages of daily figures. Annual data are for December. * Beginning June 1969, data include all bank-premises subsidiaries and other significant majority-owned domestic subsidiaries; earlier data include commercial banks only. 1973 1972 Borrowings at Excess Federal Free reserves Reserve reserves Banks Vfillions o f dollars 61. 4 71.4 71. 2 85. 9 4 104. 5 115. 6 108. 9 108. 9 111. 1 110. 6 111. 2 112. 3 113. 3 113. 3 115. 1 115. 6 116. 5 116. 6 116. 6 3 3, 756 4,360 5,150 5,717 6,443 7,580 7,158 7,367 7,460 7,500 7,361 7,817 7, 738 7, 748 8,175 8, 179 8,640 8,797 25, 260 27, 221 28,031 29, 265 31, 329 5 31, 353 31, 921 32, 565 32, 812 32, 539 33, 021 33, 148 33, 003 33, 803 5 31, 774 31, 353 32, 962 31, 742 31,979 345 455 257 272 165 5 238 765 1,086 321 107 219 1,049 233 136 104 204 147 255 162 247 5 99 109 119 94 202 438 514 574 606 314 219 342 205 294 1,049 1, 165 1, 593 1,859 107 -310 -829 -49 58 5 ^830 134 27 — 15 110 -55 -183 -352 -327 5 -292 -830 -823 - 1, 388 -1,565 4 As of June 1971, Farmers Home Administration notes totaling about $0.7 billion are classified as other securities rather than as loans. 5 Beginning November 9, 1972, adjusted to include certain reserve deficiencies on which penalties can be waived for a transition period in connection with adaptation to Kegulation J. 8 Excludes $0.4 billion due to loan reclassification at a large bank. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Beserve System. 31 CONSUMER AND REAL ESTATE CREDIT Seasonally unadjusted consumer credit increased $355 million in February compared with a $485 million drop a| year earlier. Consumer instalment credit (seasonally adjusted) rose by $2.0 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS END OF MONTH 160 160 140 140 TOTAL CONSUMER CREDIT OUTSTANDING 120 120 100 100 INSTALMENT CREDIT 80 NONiNSTALMENT CREDIT 20 20 .14 s**/ SEASON/MLY ADJUSTED (ENLARGED SCALE) 10 INST;\LMENT CREDIT EXTEENDED ! ^^~~L-~—^.^__x^^ =x~—r^^—- — --"" wy^^=^-^"=f:~^ " /I i 1 1 I 1 1 1 ! ! ! 1 \ . xXp^- L 8 i i i i i I r r i i ! 1 1 I 1 ! 1 ! I ! 1 ! I I I ! 1 1 ! 1 1 ! I 1969 1968 1970 ! 1 11 ! I I I 1 1I ! I ! ! I ! ! ! ! ! 1 1971 1972 SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM 1973 62, 692 70, 893 76, 245 79, 428 87, 745 97, 105 102, 064 111, 295 127, 332 110, 757 110, 510 111, 257 112, 439 114, 183 116, 365 117, 702 119, 911 121, 193 122, 505 124, 325 127, 332 127, 368 127, 959 24, 934 28, 437 30, 010 29, 796 32, 948 35, 527 35, 184 38, 664 44, 129 38, 450 38, 516 38, 853 39, 348 40, 063 41, 019 41, 603 42, 323 42, 644 43, 162 43, 674 44, 129 44, 353 44, 817 N COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS 17, 848 20, 237 21, 662 23, 235 25, 932 28, 652 30, 345 32, 865 36, 922 32, 862 33, 012 33, 272 33, 606 34, 077 34, 588 34, 832 35, 450 35, 755 36, 003 36, 413 36, 922 36, 870 37, 108 iAlso includes other consumer goods paper, and repair and modernization loans, not shown separately. 2 Consists of single-payment loans, charge accounts, and service credit. i i ! I t 1r i i i i N4 [Millions of dollars] Consum er instalmcjnt credit e xtended Consu mer credit outstandin g (end of p>eriod; imadjusted, and r epaid (seas onally adjiisted) Instalment To tal Automofc ile paper A , NonTotal instal- Extended Repaid Extended Repaid Total i bile Personal ment 2 paper loans 1964 80, 268 1965 89, 883 1966 96, 239 1967 100, 783 1968 110, 770 1969 121, 146 1970 127, 163 1971 138, 394 1972 157, 564 1972: Jan.. _ _ 137, 426 Feb 136, 941 Mar___ __ 137, 879 Apr 139, 410 May _ __ 141, 450 June__ 143, 812 July 145, 214 Aug 147, 631 Sept_ _ 148, 976 Oct 150, 576 Nov _ 152, 968 Dec 157, 564 1973: Jan, 157, 227 Feb 157, 582 32 10 INSTALMENT CREDIT REPAID 1967 Period — <-- -_^^" X~^ '"' 17, 576 18, 990 19, 994 21, 355 23, 025 24, 041 25, 099 27, 099 30, 232 26, 669 26, 431 26, 622 26, 971 27, 267 27, 447 27, 512 27, 720 27, 783 28, 071 28, 643 30, 232 29, 859 29, 623 3 70, 670 78, 661 82, 832 87, 171 99, 984 109, 146 112, 158 124, 281 142, 951 11, 116 10, 952 11, 741 11, 374 11, 687 12, 057 11, 687 12, 484 11, 953 12, 404 12, 846 12, 627 13, 304 13, 434 63, 470 70, 463 77, 480 83, 988 91, 667 99, 786 107, 199 115, 050 126, 914 10, 015 10, 069 10, 427 10, 384 10, 355 10, 671 10, 593 10, 841 10, 667 10, 908 11, 128 10, 964 11, 355 11, 437 24, 046 27, 208 27, 192 26, 320 31, 083 32, 553 29, 794 34, 873 40, 194 3,089 3,100 3, 176 3, 162 3,274 3,412 3,298 3, 491 3, 368 3,504 3, 620 3,763 4, 006 3,972 Mortgage debt outstanding. nonfarm, 1- to 4family houses 3 197, 600 212, 900 223, 600 236, 100 251, 200 266, 800 280, 200 307, 800 » 345, 200 21, 369 23, 706 25, 619 26, 534 27, 931 29, 974 30, 137 31, 393 34, 729 2,795 2,776 2,831 314, 100 2,867 2,819 2,922 324, 600 2,917 2,896 2,873 335, 100 3,041 3, 023 2, 977 " 345, 200 3, 097 3, 145 | End of period, unadjusted. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. BOND YIELDS AND INTEREST RATES Sfsort-fer i market interest rates continued to rise in early April but declined later in the month. Yields on intermediate and long-term securities declined from their mid-March levels. PERCENT PER ANNUM 10 PERCENT PER ANNUM 10 CORPORATE Aaa BONDS (MOODY'S) 1967 1973 SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW Period 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970__ 1971 1972 1972: Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov__ Dec 1973: Jan __ Feb___ Mar Apr Week ended: 1973: Mar 16___ 23 30___ Apr 6— 13 20___ COUNCn OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Percent per annum ] High-grade U.S. Govc3rnment seen rity yields municipal 3-month bonds 3—5 year Taxable 2 Treasury 3 (Standard4 & issues bonds bills i Poor's) • Aaa Baa 5. 67 6.23 6.94 7.81 9. 11 4. 881 4.321 5.339 6.677 6. 458 4 348 4.071 3.723 3.723 3.648 3.874 4 059 4. 014 4. 651 4. 719 4. 774 5. 061 5. 307 5. 558 6. 054 5. 16 5.07 5.59 6. 85 7. 37 5.77 5.85 5.74 6. 01 5. 69 5. 77 5. 86 5. 92 6. 16 6. 11 6. 03 6. 07 6. 29 6.61 6.85 4. 65 4 85 5.26 6. 12 6. 58 5.74 5. 64 5. 66 5.74 5. 64 5. 59 5. 59 5. 59 5. 70 5. 69 5. 51 5.63 5. 96 6. 14 6.20 3. 82 3.98 4.51 5. 81 6. 51 5. 70 5. 27 5.30 5. 45 5. 26 5.37 5.39 5. 29 5. 36 5. 20 5. 03 5. 03 5. 06 5. 12 5. 30 5. 13 5. 51 6. 18 7.03 8. 04 7. 39 7. 21 7. 24 7. 30 7. 30 7. 23 7. 21 7. 19 7. 22 7.21 7. 12 7.08 7. 15 7. 22 7. 29 8. 16 8.24 8. 24 8. 23 8. 20 8. 23 8. 19 8.09 8. 06 7. 99 7. 93 7. 90 7.97 8. 03 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 90 6.91 6. 79 6. 77 6.67 6. 73 6. 22 6. 24 6. 18 6. 16 6. 09 6 6. 08 5.32 5. 34 5. 26 5. 24 5. 11 5. 13 7. 29 7.31 7. 31 7. 27 7. 25 6 7. 24 8.01 8.05 8.08 8. 11 8. 10 8.10 997 334 251 531 187 187 1 2 Kate on new issues within period. Selected note and s April 1953 to date, bonds due or callable 10 years and after. 4 Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 5 bond issues. Data for first of the month, based on the maximum permissible interest rate (7 percent beginning February 18, 1971) and 30-year mortgages paid in 15 years. Corpora te bonds (Moo dy's) a 56 Prime commercial paper, 4_6 months 5. 55 5. 10 5.90 7.83 7. 72 5. 11 4. 69 4.17 4 58 4.51 4. 64 4. 85 4. 82 5. 14 5. 30 5. 25 5. 45 5. 78 6. 22 6.85 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8 7. FHA new home mortgage yields 5 6. 29 6. 55 7. 13 8. 19 9. 05 7. 78 7.53 7.46 7.45 7. 50 7. 53 7. 54 7.54 7. 55 7. 56 7. 57 7. 57 7. 56 7. 55 7.56 7. 63 85 08 13 18 13 13 s Not charted. Sources: Department of Housing and Urban Development, Treasury Department, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's Corporation. ^_ COMMON STOCK PRICES, YIELD, AND EARNINGS The stock market declined from the middle of March to early April. It moved up slightly in the second week of .Apr and then declined. Index, 1941-43=10 index, 1941-43 = 10 1120 COMPOSITE PRICE INDEX FOR 500 COMMON STOCKS \ 110 A 100 90 70 ! 1 ! 1 1 ! ! 1 ! ! 1 f 1 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! f I I I ? f I I ! 60 I PERCENT PERCENT RATIO RATIO PRICE/EARNINGS RATIO ON COMMON STOCKS 20 20 15 15 10 10 1968 1967 SOURCEs STANDARD & POOR'S 1969 1972 1971 1970 CORPORATION 1973 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS l Period 1967 1968 19691970 _ 1971 1972 1972: Mar Apr May _ June July Aug_ Sept Get Nov _ Dec__ 1973: Jan Feb . Mar. Week ended: 1973: Mar 9 16 23 30 Apr 6_ 13 20 _ Total Total 91. 93 98.69 97. 84 83. 22 98. 29 109. 20 107. 69 108. 81 107. 65 108. 01 107. 21 111. 01 109. 39 109. 56 115. 05 117. 50 118. 42 114. 16 112. 42 99. 18 107. 49 107. 13 91. 29 108. 35 121. 79 119. 73 121. 34 120. 16 120. 84 119. 98 124. 35 122. 33 122. 39 128. 29 131. 08 132. 55 127. 87 126. 05 113. 85 114. 20 110. 47 111. 45 109. 20 112. 08 Mil. 52 127. 70 128. 14 123. 80 124. 96 122. 31 125. 70 124. 99 Price i ndex Industrials Public Capital Consumers7 1 utilities goods goods 1941-'13 = 10 96. 96 79. 18 68. 10 66.42 105. 77 86. 33 103. 75 62. 64 87. 06 87. 87 80. 22 54. 48 102. 80 59. 33 99. 78 119. 39 113. 91 56.90 57. 73 116. 89 113. 20 120. 19 55. 70 115. 05 119. 65 112. 67 54. 94 120. 92 113. 43 53. 73 119. 13 112. 57 53. 47 124. 47 54. 66 116. 17 121. 63 113. 19 55. 36 112. 94 119. 50 56. 66 122. 11 119. 51 61. 16 124. 57 122. 26 61. 73 127. 04 122. 57 60. 01 125. 56 117. 54 57. 52 124. 53 55. 94 116. 41 126. 70 127. 33 121. 53 122. 54 119. 08 122. 93 122. 17 1 Includes 500 common stocks: 425 industrials, 55 public utilities, and 20 railroads. Weekly indexes for capital and consumer goods are Wednesday figures; all2 other weekly indexes are averages of daily figures. Aggregate cash dividends (based on latest known annual rate) divided by the aggregate monthly market value of the stocks in the group. Annual yields 34 119. 20 118. 74 113. 75 113. 94 110. 35 114. 23 111.85 56. 58 56.43 55. 31 55. 29 54. 89 55.58 55.82 Railroads Dividend yield 2 (percent) 46. 72 48.84 45. 95 32. 13 41. 94 44. 11 46. 48 47. 38 45. 06 43. 66 42. 00 43. 28 42.37 41. 20 42.41 44. 62 42. 87 40. 61 39. 29 3. 20 3.07 3. 24 a 83 3. 14 2. 84 2. 86 2. 83 2. 88 2. 87 2. 90 2.80 2. 83 2. 82 2. 73 2.70 2. 69 2. 80 2. 83 39. 31 39. 43 38. 81 39. 78 39. 18 39. 56 39. 26 2. 79 2. 78 2. 89 2.87 2. 94 2. 84 4 2. 84 Price/ earnings ratio 3 17.48 17.66 16.48 15. 69 18.50 18. 18 18.45 17. 95 18. 00 18.30 are3 averages of monthly data. Weekly data are Wednesday figures. Ratio of priee index for last day of quarter to earnings for 12 months ending with that quarter. Annual ratios are averages of quarterly data. «Not charted. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation. FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBT In the first 8 months of fiscal 1973 there was a deficit of $17.2 billion/ a year earlier the deficit was $23.8 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 260 220 •20 -20 -40 -40 1963 1964 1965 1966 1968 1967 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 FISCAL YEARS SOURCES: TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billio ns of dollars] Federal debt ,end of period) Period Receipts Fiscal year: 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 _ _ _ _ 1970 1971 1972 2 1973 2 1974 Cumulative totals for first 8 months: Fiscal year 1972 Fiscal year 1973 _ _ __ _ i Excludes non-interest-bearing public debt securities held by IMF. Estimate. 3 Outlays Surplus or deficit ( — ) Held by the public Total i 99. 7 106. 6 112. 7 106. 8 111. 3 118.6 -7. 1 -4. 8 -5. 9 303. 3 310. 8 316. 8 248.4 254. 5 257. 6 116. 8 130. 9 149. 6 153. 7 187. 8 118.4 134. 7 158. 3 178. 8 184. 5 — 1. 6 -3. 8 -8.7 25. 2 3. 2 323. 329. 341. 369. 367. 2 5 3 8 1 261. 264. 267. 290. 279. 6 7 5 6 5 193. 7 188.4 208. 6 225.0 256.0 196. 6 211. 4 231. 9 249. 8 268. 7 -2.8 -23. 0 -23. 2 -24. 8 -12. 7 382. 6 409. 5 437. 3 473. 3 505.5 284. 304. 323. 348. 365. 9 3 8 8 3 126. 0 145. 3 149. 8 162. 4 — 23. 8 -17. 2 434. 3 465.8 326. 0 346.5 Sources: Treasury Department and Office of Management and Budget. 35 FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 8 months of fiscal 1973 budget receipts were $19.3 billion higher than a year earlier while outlays were, $12.6 billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS &SLLIONS OF DOLLARS 180 1 OUTLAYS 180 x***^ AH ^ 140- +'+*' ion NONDEFENSE 100 140 ******* 1OA ^^**** 100 ^-- — -" """^ ^^^*^ .0 80 NATIONAL DEFENSE 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 FISCAL YEARS SOURCES: TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars] Recei]pts (Outlays Natio Qal defense Period i Fiscal year: 1962 . 19-63 1964 1967 1968__ 1970 1971. 1972 „_ 1973 ! 1 1974 Cumulative totals for first 8 months: Fiscal year 1972_ Fiscal year 1973» 3 Estimate. 36 Total CorpoIndividual _ra-6ion income taxes taxes ! Other I Total UepartTotal Defense, military 99. 7 106.6 112.7 116. 8 130. 9 149. 6 153.7 187. 8 193. 7 18&4 208. 6 225.0 256. 0 45. 6 47.6 48. 7 48.8 55. 4 61. 5 68. 7 87. 2 90. 4 86. 2 94. 7 99.4 111. 6 20.5 21. 6 23. 5 25. 5 30. 1 34.0 28. 7 36. 7 32. 8 26. 8 32.2 33.5 37.0 33. 6 37. 4 40.5 42.6 45. 3 54. 1 56. 3 63.9 70. 5 75. 4 81. 7 92. 1 107.4 106.8 111. 3 118. 6 118, 4 134. 7 158. 3 178. 8 184.5 196.6 211. 4 231. 9 249. 8 26&7 5L 1 52. 3 53. 6 49. 6 56. 8 70. 1 80.5 81. 2 80. 3 77.7 78.3 76.4 81. 1 46.9 48. 1 49. 6 46. 0 54. 2 67. 5 77.4 77.9 77. 2 74.5 75. 2 74.2 78.2 126.0 145. 3 61. 3 72. 1 13.5 15,9 51.2 57,2 149. 8 162. 4 48. 3 48. 2 46. 6 46. 7 tional affairs and finance Health 8.3 3.8 23.7 25.5 26. 8 27. 4 31. 5 37.8 43.7 49. 3 56. 7 70.6 82. 0 93. 9 103.7 9. 2 9. 8 10.4 11. 3 12. 6 13.7 15. 8 18.3 19. 6 20. 6 22. 8 24. 7 19. 2 20.3 24.2 26. 7 30.6 33.2 36. 2 34.4 37.7 40. 5 47.2 53.3 55.4 2. 4 2. 0 51.9 59. 2 13. 5 14. 4 33. 8 38. 6 4. 5 41 4.1 4.3 4. 5 4. 5 4. 6 3. 8 3. 6 3. 1 3. 7 a3 Sources: Treasury Department and Office of Management and Budget. |EDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS According to current estimates for the fourth quarter Federal receipts rose $8% billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) and expenditures rose $21 billion, yielding a deficit of $241/3 billion. Preliminary estimates for the first quarter Indicate expenditures fell $21/3 billion. Receipts data are incomplete. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 300 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 300 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES 280 280 260 ^r EXPENDITURES 220 200 200 180 180 RECEIPTS 160 140 140 ! 120 *20 SURPLUS f^^s jpSSJ W M m mi 0 1111 1i ^ I ^120 ^ i i%L H I ! H §^i H 1 i -20 1 ^ DEFKI1T 1 -40 1 ! 1 1967 1 \ 1968 1_ 1 I 1969 \ \ ! I 1970 CALENDAR YEA J/ PRELIMINARY J ] i 1 f ! 972 1971 RS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE -20 ! ! -40 1973 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS [Billions of dollars, quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Fe<ieral Go vernmen t expend itures Federal (jfOvernm ent reeeip ts Period Fiscal year : 1969 1970 1971 1972* __ 1973 L _ _ 1974 ! _ _ _ Calendar year: Corpo•p jrersonai rate tax and Total nontax profits tax receipts accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Grantsin-aid ContriPurbutions chases Trans- to State Net for Total of goods fer pay- and interest social inand ments local paid services governsurance ments Surplus or Subsidies Less: deficit less Wage current accruals . ^ '> income less surplus of and Governdisment en- burse- product terprises ments 190. 4 195. 0 193. 0 211. 9 233. 3 263.0 90. 0 93. 7 87. 1 100. 1 104. 2 116. 6 37. 4 33. I 32. 0 33. 5 38.7 41.6 18. 6 19. 2 20. 1 20. 1 20. 5 21.6 44. 4 49.0 53. 8 58. 3 69.8 83. 2 185. 7 99.4 196.3 98. 3 212. 8 95. 8 233. 1 103. 1 259. 9 105.8 275. 5 111. 5 50.7 56.8 69. 8 78.6 91.6 101. 9 19. 2 22. 6 27. 0 32. 7 41.6 41.6 12. 3 14. 0 14. 3 13. 5 14. 6 15. 8 4. 1 4. 7 5.8 5. 2 6.3 4. 8 0.0 .1 —.1 .0 .0 o O 4. 7 — 1. 3 -19.7 — 21. 1 -26.6 — 12. 5 197. 3 191. 6 199. 1 228.6 94.8 92.4 89. 6 109.0 36.6 30.4 33. 1 36.2 19.0 19. 3 20. 5 20. 1 46.9 49. 5 55. 9 63.4 189. 2 98.8 204. 5 96. 5 220. 8 97.8 246. 8 105.8 52.4 63.3 75.0 83.4 20. 3 24. 5 29. 3 37.9 13. I 14. 6 13. 6 13.6 4. 6 5.5 5.2 6. 1 .0 .0 (2) :0 8. 1 — 12. 9 -21. 7 -18. 1 1971: III___ 199. 1 IV___ 202. 8 89. 8 93. 8 33. 2 31. 1 20. 0 20. 8 56. I 57. 0 222. 2 97. 9 227. 5 100. 7 76. 3 77. 8 29. 8 30.8 13. 6 13. 3 4. 6 5. 0 .0 .1 -23. 1 -24. 7 105.8 107. 3 109. 1 113.6 34.0 35. 2 36.7 38. 9 19. 9 19. 7 20.2 20. 6 61.7 62. 6 63.8 65.3 236. 3 246. 5 241.6 262. 7 105.7 108. 1 105.4 104.0 79.4 80. 4 82.0 91. 8 32.4 38. 1 34.4 46. 5 13. 1 13. 8 13. 6 13.7 5.6 6.0 6.2 6.7 .0 -14. 8 -21.6 — 11.8 -24. 3 20.8 77, 6 260. 4 107. 0 92. 3 41. 8 14. 1 5.2 1970 1971 1972 1972: T II III" IV___ 221.4 224.9 229.8 238. 4 i 1973: I » 12 Estimate. $39 million. 109.0 Source: Department of Commerce. —.1 .0 .0 .0 37 UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE DIVISION OF PUBLIC U.S. POSTAGE AND FEES PA ID GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE DOCUMENTS WASHINGTON, D.C. 2O4O2 OFFICIAL BUSINESS First-Class Mail The Nation's Income, Expenditure, and Saving Gross National Product or Expenditure National Income Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment page 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 „_ „ Status of the Labor Force Selected Measures of Unemployment and Part-Time Employment Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Weekly Hours of Work—Selected Industries Average Hourly and Weekly Earnings—Selected Industries 10 11 12 13 14 15 Industrial Production Production of Selected Manufactures Weekly Indicators of Production New Construction New Housing Starts and Applications for Financing. _ _ Business Sales 5and Inventories—Total and Trade Manufacturers Shipments, Inventories, and New Orders. Merchandise Exports and Imports ___„ U.S. Balances on Goods, Services, and Transfers U.S. Overall Balances on International Transactions 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 . PRICES Consumer Prices Wholesale Prices . Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 26 27 28 Money Stock Private Liquid Asset Holdings—Nonfinancial Investors Bank Loans, Investments, Debits, and Reserves Consumer and Real Estate Credit Bond Yields and Interest Rates Common Stock Prices, Yield, and Earnings 29 30 31 32 33 34 Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 35 36 37 NOTE.—Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise stated, all dollar figures are current dollars. P Indicates preliminary and not available. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402 Price 55 cents (single copy). 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