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Technical information: (202) 691-5700 USDL 07-1847
http://www.bls.gov/emp/ For release: 10:00 A.M. EST
Media contact: 691-5902 Tuesday, December 4, 2007
EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS: 2006-16
Projections of industry and occupational employment, labor force, and
economic growth covering the 2006-16 decade were released today by the
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor. The 10-year
projections are widely used in career guidance, in education and training
program planning, and in studying long-range employment trends. The pro-
jections, which are updated every 2 years, continue a 60-year tradition
of providing information to individuals who are making education and
training choices, entering the job market, or changing careers.
Over the 2006-16 decade, total employment is projected to increase by
15.6 million jobs, or 10 percent, slightly less than the 15.9 million jobs,
or 12 percent, during the 1996-2006 decade. The labor force filling these
jobs, while becoming more racially and ethnically diverse, is projected to
grow more slowly than in the past. This slowdown in the growth of the
labor force is expected, in part, because of the aging and retiring of baby
boomers. As a result, the need to replace workers who retire or leave the
labor force for other reasons--called replacement needs--is projected to
create a significant number of additional job openings.
Industry Employment
--Employment growth is projected to continue to be concentrated in the
service-providing sector of the economy. Service-providing indus-
tries will generate almost all of the employment gain from 2006 to
2016 and will provide more than three-quarters of all jobs in 2016.
Professional and business services and health care and social assist-
ance, the industry sectors with the largest employment growth, will
add 8.1 million jobs, more than half of the projected increase in
total employment. (See table 1.)
--Within the goods-producing sector, construction is the only sector
projected to grow. Employment in manufacturing will decline by
1.5 million jobs. This decline is half of the 3 million manufac-
turing jobs lost in the previous decade (1996-2006). Employment in
goods-producing industries is expected to decrease from 14.9 to
13.1 percent of total employment. (See table 1.)
--The 10 detailed industries with the largest projected wage and salary
employment growth--led by management, scientific, and technical con-
sulting services; employment services; and general medical and surgical
hospitals--all are in the service-providing sector. (See table 2.)
--Four of the 10 detailed industries with the largest projected wage and
salary employment declines are in the manufacturing sector, including
printing and related support activities and motor vehicle parts
manufacturing. (See table 3.)
- 2 -
Occupational Employment
--Professional and related occupations and service occupations--2 major
occupational groups on opposite ends of the educational and earnings
ranges--are projected to grow the fastest and add the most jobs,
accounting for more than 6 of 10 new jobs created over the 2006-16
decade. (See table 4.)
--A large portion of job gains and losses are projected to be concentrated
in a small number of detailed occupations. The 30 occupations with the
largest numeric increases will account for more than half of all new
jobs. (See table 5.) The 30 occupations with the largest numeric
declines will account for more than two-thirds of all job losses from
declining occupations. (See table 8.)
--Nineteen of the 30 occupations with the largest job growth are in
professional and related occupations and service occupations.
(See table 5.)
--Twenty-eight of the 30 fastest growing occupations are in professional
and related occupations and service occupations. (See table 6.)
--Job openings generally are more numerous in large occupations. Of the
30 occupations with the largest number of total job openings due to
growth and net replacements, 29 are projected to have more than 1 million
jobs in 2016. (See table 7.)
--Production occupations and farming, fishing, and forestry occupations
are the two major occupational groups projected to lose employment over
the decade. (See table 4.)
Education and Training Categories
--For 19 of the 30 occupations with the largest job growth, short- or
moderate-term on-the-job training are the most significant sources of
postsecondary education or training. (See table 5.)
--For 15 of the 30 fastest growing occupations, a bachelor�s or higher
degree is the most significant source of postsecondary education or
training. (See table 6.)
--On-the-job training and work experience are the most significant
source of postsecondary education or training for 24 of the 30 occu-
pations projected to have the most total job openings due to growth
and net replacements. (See table 7.)
--For 28 of the 30 occupations projected to have the largest employment
declines, on-the-job training and work experience are the most signi-
ficant sources of postsecondary education or training. (See table 8.)
--The proportion of jobs in occupations that typically require a college
degree will increase slightly between 2006 and 2016. (See table 9.)
- 3 -
Labor Force
--The civilian labor force is projected to increase by 12.8 million over
the 2006-16 decade, reaching 164.2 million by 2016. This 8.5 percent
increase is less than the 13.1 percent increase over the previous
decade--1996 to 2006--when the labor force grew by 17.5 million.
(See table 10.)
--The number of workers in the 55-and-older group is projected to grow by
46.7 percent, nearly 5.5 times the 8.5 percent growth projected for the
labor force overall. (See table 10.)
--Youths--those between the ages of 16 and 24--will decline in numbers and
will see their share of the labor force fall from 14.8 to 12.7 percent.
The number of prime-age workers--those between the ages of 25 and 54--
will increase by 2.4 percent, but their share of the labor force will
decline from 68.4 to 64.6 percent. (See table 10.)
--The Hispanic labor force is expected to grow by 29.9 percent, reaching
26.9 million by 2016, while the non-Hispanic labor force is projected
to grow by only 5.1 percent. (See table 10.)
--Increases in the labor force will vary by race. Whites will remain
the largest race group despite relatively slow growth of 5.5 percent,
composing 79.6 percent of the labor force by 2016. The number of blacks
will grow by 16.2 percent and will constitute 12.3 percent of the labor
force. Asians will continue to be the fastest growing race group,
increasing by 29.9 percent and will make up 5.3 percent of the labor
force by 2016. (See table 10.)
A Note on Labor Shortages in the Context of Long-Term Economic Projections
Users of these data should not assume that the difference between the
projected increase in the labor force and the projected increase in
employment implies a labor shortage or surplus. The measures upon which
the employment and labor force projections are based are different. Employ-
ment is a count of jobs; labor force is a count of individuals. In
addition, the BLS projections assume a labor market in equilibrium, that
is, one where labor supply meets labor demand except for some degree of
frictional unemployment. For a discussion of the basic projection
methodology, see "An overview of BLS projections to 2016," James Franklin,
November 2007 Monthly Labor Review. For a discussion of labor shortages in
the context of long-term projection models, see "Employment projections to
2012: concepts and context," Michael W. Horrigan, February 2004 Monthly
Labor Review.
Notes
More detailed information on the 2006 to 2016 projections appears in
five articles in the November 2007 issue of the Monthly Labor Review,
published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
The Monthly Labor Review is available online at http://www.bls.gov/opub/
mlr/welcome.htm.
The forthcoming 2008-09 editions of the Occupational Outlook Handbook
and the Career Guide to Industries will feature the 2006-16 projections
in assessing job prospects, work activities, earnings, educational require-
ments, and more for numerous occupations and industries. The Handbook and
Career Guide both will be available online December 18, 2007, at http://www.
bls.gov/oco and http://www.bls.gov/oco/cg, respectively. A graphic pre-
sentation of the highlights of the projections appears in the Fall 2007
Occupational Outlook Quarterly. The Quarterly is available online at
http://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq.
- 4 -
Detailed, comprehensive statistics used in preparing the projections
will be published in the 2008-09 edition of the Occupational Projections
and Training Data (OPTD). The OPTD will be available online May 2008 at
http://www.bls.gov/emp/optd/home.htm.
The Occupational Outlook Handbook, Career Guide to Industries, Occupa-
tional Outlook Quarterly, Occupational Projections and Training Data, and
the Monthly Labor Review are sold by the U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402. To order, visit: http://www.bls.gov/emp/
emppub01.htm. To order Monthly Labor Review, visit: http://www.bls.gov/
opub/mlr/subscrib.htm.
Information in this release will be made available to sensory impaired
individuals upon request. Voice phone: (202) 691-5200; TDD message
referral phone: 1-800-877-8339.
Table 1. Employment by major industry sector, 1996, 2006, and projected 2016
(In thousands)
Average
annual rate
Industry sector Employment Change Percent distribution of change
1996 2006 2016 1996- 2006- 1996 2006 2016 1996- 2006-
2006 2016 2006 2016
Total (1) ........................... 134,690 150,620 166,220 15,930 15,600 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.1 1.0
Nonagriculture wage and salary (2) .. 120,371 136,912 151,962 16,541 15,050 89.4 90.9 91.4 1.3 1.0
Goods-producing, excluding
agriculture ...................... 23,329 22,505 21,773 -824 -732 17.3 14.9 13.1 -.4 -.3
Mining ............................. 556 619 608 62 -10 .4 .4 .4 1.1 -.2
Construction ....................... 5,536 7,689 8,470 2,153 781 4.1 5.1 5.1 3.3 1.0
Manufacturing ...................... 17,237 14,197 12,695 -3,039 -1,503 12.8 9.4 7.6 -1.9 -1.1
Service-providing ................... 97,043 114,407 130,190 17,364 15,782 72.0 76.0 78.3 1.7 1.3
Utilities .......................... 640 549 518 -91 -31 .5 .4 .3 -1.5 -.6
Wholesale trade .................... 5,522 5,898 6,326 376 429 4.1 3.9 3.8 .7 .7
Retail trade ....................... 14,143 15,319 16,006 1,177 687 10.5 10.2 9.6 .8 .4
Transportation and warehousing . ... 3,936 4,466 4,962 530 496 2.9 3.0 3.0 1.3 1.1
Information ........................ 2,940 3,055 3,267 115 212 2.2 2.0 2.0 .4 .7
Financial activities ............... 6,969 8,363 9,570 1,395 1,207 5.2 5.6 5.8 1.8 1.4
Professional and business services . 13,462 17,552 21,644 4,090 4,092 10.0 11.7 13.0 2.7 2.1
Educational services ............... 2,078 2,918 3,527 841 609 1.5 1.9 2.1 3.5 1.9
Health care and social assistance .. 11,605 14,920 18,954 3,315 4,034 8.6 9.9 11.4 2.5 2.4
Leisure and hospitality ............ 10,777 13,143 15,017 2,367 1,873 8.0 8.7 9.0 2.0 1.3
Other services ..................... 5,435 6,235 7,077 800 843 4.0 4.1 4.3 1.4 1.3
Federal government ................. 2,877 2,728 2,626 -149 -103 2.1 1.8 1.6 -.5 -.4
State and local government ......... 16,662 19,262 20,696 2,600 1,434 12.4 12.8 12.5 1.5 .7
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and
hunting (3) ........................ 2,731 2,139 1,965 -592 -173 2.0 1.4 1.2 -2.4 -.8
Agriculture wage and salary ......... 1,390 1,220 1,114 -170 -105 1.0 .8 .7 -1.3 -.9
Agriculture self-employed and unpaid
family workers ..................... 1,341 919 851 -422 -68 1.0 .6 .5 -3.7 -.8
Nonagriculture self-employed and
unpaid family workers .............. 9,368 9,772 10,462 404 690 7.0 6.5 6.3 .4 .7
Secondary wage and salary jobs in
agriculture and private household
industries (4) .................... 177 178 185 2 7 .1 .1 .1 .1 .4
Secondary jobs as self-employed or
unpaid family worker (5) ........... 2,043 1,619 1,646 -425 27 1.5 1.1 1.0 -2.3 .2
1 Employment data for wage and salary workers are from the BLS Current Employment Statistics survey, which counts
jobs, whereas self-employed, unpaid family workers, and agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting are from the
Current Population Survey, which counts workers.
2 Includes wage and salary data from the Current Employment Statistics survey, except private households, which is
from the Current Population Survey. Logging workers are excluded.
3 Includes agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting data from the Current Population Survey, except logging,
which is from the Current Employment Statistics survey. Government wage and salary workers are excluded.
4 Workers who hold a secondary wage and salary job in agricultural production, forestry, fishing, and private
household industries.
5 Wage and salary workers who hold a secondary job as a self-employed or unpaid family worker.
Table 2. The 10 industries with the largest wage and salary employment growth,
2006-2016 (1)
(In thousands)
Industry Employment Change
2006 2016 Number Percent
Management, scientific, and technical
consulting services ........................ 921 1,639 718 77.9
Employment services .......................... 3,657 4,348 692 18.9
General medical and surgical hospitals, public
and private ................................. 4,988 5,679 691 13.9
Elementary and secondary schools, public and
private ..................................... 8,346 8,983 638 7.6
Local government, excluding education and
hospitals ................................... 5,594 6,206 612 10.9
Offices of physicians ........................ 2,154 2,687 534 24.8
Limited-service eating places ................ 4,019 4,548 529 13.2
Colleges, universities, and professional
schools, public and private ................. 3,434 3,933 499 14.5
Computer systems design and related services . 1,278 1,768 489 38.3
Home health care services .................... 867 1,348 481 55.4
1 Data are from the National Employment Matrix.
Table 3. The 10 industries with the largest wage and salary employment declines,
2006-2016 (1)
(In thousands)
Industry Employment Change
2006 2016 Number Percent
Gasoline stations ................................ 861 716 -146 -16.9
Printing and related support activities .......... 636 497 -139 -21.8
Motor vehicle parts manufacturing ................ 654 516 -138 -21.1
Department stores ................................ 1,551 1,438 -113 -7.3
Cut and sew apparel manufacturing ................ 186 77 -108 -58.4
Wired telecommunications carriers ................ 478 379 -99 -20.8
Crop production; primary job ..................... 539 441 -98 -18.2
Federal government, excluding postal service ..... 1,958 1,869 -90 -4.6
Office supplies, stationery, and gift stores ..... 379 300 -79 -20.9
Computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing .. 199 132 -67 -33.5
1 Data are from the National Employment Matrix.
Table 4. Employment by major occupational group, 2006 and projected 2016
(In thousands)
Occupational group Employment Percent distribution Change
2006 2016 2006 2016 Percent Number
Total, all occupations ......................... 150,620 166,220 100.0 100.0 10.4 15,600
Management, business, and financial
occupations (1) ............................... 15,397 16,993 10.2 10.2 10.4 1,596
Professional and related occupations (2) ....... 29,819 34,790 19.8 20.9 16.7 4,970
Service occupations (3) ........................ 28,950 33,780 19.2 20.3 16.7 4,830
Sales and related occupations .................. 15,985 17,203 10.6 10.3 7.6 1,218
Office and administrative support occupations .. 24,344 26,089 16.2 15.7 7.2 1,745
Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations ..... 1,039 1,010 .7 .6 -2.8 -29
Construction and extraction occupations ........ 8,295 9,079 5.5 5.5 9.5 785
Installation, maintenance, and repair
occupations ................................... 5,883 6,433 3.9 3.9 9.3 550
Production occupations ......................... 10,675 10,147 7.1 6.1 -4.9 -528
Transportation and material moving occupations . 10,233 10,695 6.8 6.4 4.5 462
1 Major occupational groups 11-0000 through 13-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).
2 Major occupational groups 15-0000 through 29-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).
3 Major occupational groups 31-0000 through 39-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).
Table 5. The 30 occupations with the largest employment growth, 2006-2016
(In thousands)
Most significant source of
Occupation Occupational group Employment Change postsecondary education
or training (1)
2006 2016 Number Percent
Registered nurses .......................... Professional and related
occupations (2).............. 2,505 3,092 587 23.5 Associate degree
Retail salespersons ........................ Sales and related occupations . 4,477 5,034 557 12.4 Short-term on-the-job
training
Customer service representatives ........... Office and administrative Moderate-term on-the-
support occupations .......... 2,202 2,747 545 24.8 job training
Combined food preparation and serving Short-term on-the-job
workers, including fast food .............. Service occupations (3)........ 2,503 2,955 452 18.1 training
Office clerks, general ..................... Office and administrative Short-term on-the-job
support occupations .......... 3,200 3,604 404 12.6 training
Personal and home care aides ............... Service occupations (3) ....... 767 1,156 389 50.6 Short-term on-the-job
training
Home health aides .......................... Service occupations (3) ....... 787 1,171 384 48.7 Short-term on-the-job
training
Postsecondary teachers ..................... Professional and related
occupations (2) .............. 1,672 2,054 382 22.9 Doctoral degree
Janitors and cleaners, except maids and Short-term on-the-job
housekeeping cleaners ..................... Service occupations (3) ....... 2,387 2,732 345 14.5 training
Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants ... Service occupations (3) ....... 1,447 1,711 264 18.2 Postsecondary vocational
award
Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing Office and administrative Moderate-term on-the-
clerks .................................... support occupations .......... 2,114 2,377 264 12.5 job training
Short-term on-the-job
Waiters and waitresses ..................... Service occupations (3) ....... 2,361 2,615 255 10.8 training
Short-term on-the-job
Child care workers ......................... Service occupations (3) ....... 1,388 1,636 248 17.8 training
Executive secretaries and administrative ... Office and administrative Work experience in a
assistants ................................ support occupations .......... 1,618 1,857 239 14.8 related occupation
Computer software engineers, applications .. Professional and related
occupations (2) .............. 507 733 226 44.6 Bachelor's degree
Accountants and auditors ................... Management, business, and
financial occupations (4) .... 1,274 1,500 226 17.7 Bachelor's degree
Landscaping and groundskeeping workers ..... Service occupations (3) ....... 1,220 1,441 221 18.1 Short-term on-the-job
training
Elementary school teachers, except special Professional and related
education ................................. occupations (2) .............. 1,540 1,749 209 13.6 Bachelor's degree
Receptionists and information clerks ....... Office and administrative Short-term on-the-job
support occupations .......... 1,173 1,375 202 17.2 training
Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer ... Transportation and material Moderate-term on-the-
moving occupations ........... 1,860 2,053 193 10.4 job training
Maids and housekeeping cleaners ............ Service occupations (3) ....... 1,470 1,656 186 12.7 Short-term on-the-job
training
Security guards ............................ Service occupations (3) ....... 1,040 1,216 175 16.9 Short-term on-the-job
training
Carpenters ................................. Construction and extraction Long-term on-the-job
occupations .................. 1,462 1,612 150 10.3 training
Bachelor's or higher
Management analysts ........................ Management, business, and degree, plus work
financial occupations (4) .... 678 827 149 21.9 experience
Medical assistants ......................... Service occupations (3) ....... 417 565 148 35.4 Moderate-term on-the-
job training
Computer systems analysts .................. Professional and related
occupations (2) .............. 504 650 146 29.0 Bachelor's degree
Maintenance and repair workers, general .... Installation, maintenance, and Moderate-term on-the-
repair occupations ............ 1,391 1,531 140 10.1 job training
Network systems and data communications Professional and related
analysts .................................. occupations (2) .............. 262 402 140 53.4 Bachelor's degree
Food preparation workers ................... Service occupations (3) ....... 902 1,040 138 15.3 Short-term on-the-job
training
Teacher assistants ......................... Professional and related Short-term on-the-job
occupations (2) .............. 1,312 1,449 137 10.4 training
1 An occupation is placed into 1 of 11 categories that best describes the postsecondary education or training needed by most workers to
become fully qualified in that occupation. For more information about the categories, see Occupational Projections and Training Data,
2006-07 edition,Bulletin 2602 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2006) and Occupational Projections and Training Data, 2008-09 edition,
Bulletin 2702 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, forthcoming).
2 Major occupational groups 15-0000 through 29-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).
3 Major occupational groups 31-0000 through 39-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).
4 Major occupational groups 11-0000 through 13-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).
Table 6. The 30 fastest-growing occupations, 2006-2016
(In thousands)
Most significant source of
Occupation Occupational group Employment Change postsecondary education
or training (1)
2006 2016 Number Percent
Network systems and data communications Professional and related
analysts .................................. occupations (2) .............. 262 402 140 53.4 Bachelor's degree
Personal and home care aides ............... Service occupations (3) ....... 767 1,156 389 50.6 Short-term on-the-job
training
Home health aides .......................... Service occupations (3) ....... 787 1,171 384 48.7 Short-term on-the-job
training
Computer software engineers, applications .. Professional and related
occupations (2) .............. 507 733 226 44.6 Bachelor's degree
Veterinary technologists and technicians ... Professional and related
occupations (2) .............. 71 100 29 41.0 Associate degree
Personal financial advisors ................ Management, business, and
financial occupations (4) .... 176 248 72 41.0 Bachelor's degree
Makeup artists, theatrical and performance . Service occupations (3) ....... 2 3 1 39.8 Postsecondary vocational
award
Medical assistants ......................... Service occupations (3) ....... 417 565 148 35.4 Moderate-term on-the-
job training
Veterinarians .............................. Professional and related
occupations (2) .............. 62 84 22 35.0 First professional degree
Substance abuse and behavioral disorder Professional and related
counselors ................................ occupations (2) .............. 83 112 29 34.3 Bachelor's degree
Skin care specialists ...................... Service occupations (3) ....... 38 51 13 34.3 Postsecondary vocational
award
Financial analysts ........................ Management, business, and
financial occupations (4) .... 221 295 75 33.8 Bachelor's degree
Social and human service assistants ....... Professional and related Moderate-term on-the-
occupations (2) .............. 339 453 114 33.6 job training
Gaming surveillance officers and gaming Moderate-term on-the-
investigators ............................ Service occupations (3) ....... 9 12 3 33.6 job training
Physical therapist assistants .............. Service occupations (3) ....... 60 80 20 32.4 Associate degree
Pharmacy technicians ....................... Professional and related Moderate-term on-the-
occupations (2) .............. 285 376 91 32.0 job training
Forensic science technicians ................ Professional and related
occupations (2) .............. 13 17 4 30.7 Bachelor's degree
Dental hygienists ........................... Professional and related
occupations (2) .............. 167 217 50 30.1 Associate degree
Mental health counselors .................... Professional and related
occupations (2) .............. 100 130 30 30.0 Master's degree
Mental health and substance abuse social Professional and related
workers .................................... occupations (2) ............. 122 159 37 29.9 Master's degree
Marriage and family therapists .............. Professional and related
occupations (2).............. 25 32 7 29.8 Master's degree
Dental assistants ........................... Service occupations (3) 280 362 82 29.2 Moderate-term on-the-
job training
Computer systems analysts ................... Professional and related
occupations (2) ............. 504 650 146 29.0 Bachelor's degree
Database administrators ..................... Professional and related
occupations (2) ............. 119 154 34 28.6 Bachelor's degree
Computer software engineers, systems Professional and relate
software ................................... occupations (2) ............. 350 449 99 28.2 Bachelor's degree
Gaming and sports book writers and runners .. Service occupations (3) 18 24 5 28.0 Short-term on-the-job
training
Environmental science and protection Professional and related
technicians, including health .............. occupations (2) ............. 36 47 10 28.0 Associate degree
Manicurists and pedicurists ................. Service occupations (3) 78 100 22 27.6 Postsecondary vocational
award
Physical therapists ......................... Professional and related
occupations (2) ............ 173 220 47 27.1 Master's degree
Physician assistants ........................ Professional and related
occupations (2) ........ 66 83 18 27.0 Master's degree
1 An occupation is placed into 1 of 11 categories that best describes the postsecondary education or training needed by most workers to
become fully qualified in that occupation. For more information about the categories, see Occupational Projections and Training Data,
2006-07 edition,Bulletin 2602 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2006) and Occupational Projections and Training Data, 2008-09 edition,
Bulletin 2702 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, forthcoming).
2 Major occupational groups 15-0000 through 29-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).
3 Major occupational groups 31-0000 through 39-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).
4 Major occupational groups 11-0000 through 13-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).
Table 7. The 30 occupations with the largest number of total job openings due to growth and net replacements, 2006-2016
(In thousands)
Total job
Net openings due Most significant source of
Occupation Occupational group Employment Change replacement to growth postsecondary education
needs and net or training (1)
2006 2016 Number replacements(1)
Retail salespersons .............. Sales and related Short-term on-the-job
occupations ............ 4,477 5,034 557 1,378 1,935 training
Cashiers, except gaming .......... Sales and related Short-term on-the-job
occupations ............ 3,500 3,382 -118 1,664 1,664 training
Waiters and waitresses ............. Service occupations (3) . 2,361 2,615 255 1,282 1,537 Short-term on-the-job
training
Customer service representatives .. Office and administrative Moderate-term on-the-
support occupations .... 2,202 2,747 545 613 1,158 training
Registered nurses ................. Professional and related
occupations (2)........ 2,505 3,092 587 413 1,001 Associate degree
Office clerks, general ............ Office and administrative Short-term on-the-job
support occupations .... 3,200 3,604 404 587 991 training
Combined food preparation and
serving workers, including fast Short-term on-the-job
food ............................. Service occupations (3) . 2,503 2,955 452 475 927 training
Transportation and
Laborers and freight, stock, and material moving Short-term on-the-job
material movers, hand ............ occupations ............ 2,416 2,466 50 773 823 training
Janitors and cleaners, except maids Short-term on-the-job
and housekeeping cleaners ......... Service occupations (3) . 2,387 2,732 345 457 802 training
Postsecondary teachers ............. Professional and related
occupations (2) ........ 1,672 2,054 382 280 662 Doctoral degree
Child care workers ................. Service occupations (3) . 1,388 1,636 248 399 646 Short-term on-the-job
training
Bookkeeping, accounting, and Office and administrative Moderate-term on-the-
auditing clerks .................... support occupations .... 2,114 2,377 264 331 594 job training
Elementary school teachers, except Professional and related
special education .................. occupations (2) ........ 1,540 1,749 209 336 545 Bachelor's degree
Truck drivers, heavy and tractor- Transportation and
trailer ........................... material moving Moderate-term on-the-
occupations ............ 1,860 2,053 193 330 523 job training
Personal and home care aides ....... Service occupations (3) . 767 1,156 389 130 519 Short-term on-the-job
training
Executive secretaries and Office and administrative Work experience in a
administrative assistants ......... support occupations .... 1,618 1,857 239 258 497 related occupation
Receptionists and information Office and administrative Short-term on-the-job
clerks............................. support occupations .... 1,173 1,375 202 287 489 training
Sales representatives, wholesale and
manufacturing, except technical and Sales and related Work experience in a
scientific products ............... occupations ............ 1,562 1,693 131 345 476 related occupation
Maids and housekeeping cleaners .... Service occupations (3) . 1,470 1,656 186 277 463 Short-term on-the-job
training
Home health aides .................. Service occupations (3) . 787 1,171 384 70 454 Short-term on-the-job
training
Food preparation workers ............ Service occupations (3) . 902 1,040 138 313 451 Short-term on-the-job
training
Accountants and auditors ............ Management, business,
and financial
occupations (4) ........ 1,274 1,500 226 224 450 Bachelor's degree
General and operations managers ..... Management, business Bachelor's or higher
and financial degree, plus work
occupations (4) ........ 1,720 1,746 26 415 441 experience
Counter attendants, cafeteria, food Short-term on-the-job
concession, and coffee shop ........ Service occupations (3) . 533 587 54 370 424 training
First-line supervisors/managers of Sales and related Work experience in a
retail sales workers ............... occupations ............ 1,676 1,747 71 352 423 related occupation
Stock clerks and order fillers ...... Office and administrative Short-term on-the-job
support occupations .... 1,705 1,574 -131 405 405 training
Nursing aides, orderlies, and Postsecondary vocational
attendants ....................... Service occupations (3) . 1,447 1,711 264 130 393 award
Short-term on-the-job
Security guards ................... Service occupations (3) . 1,040 1,216 175 211 387 training
Landscaping and groundskeeping Short-term on-the-job
workers .......................... Service occupations (3) .. 1,220 1,441 221 161 382 training
First-line supervisors/managers of
office and administrative support Office and administrative Work experience in a
workers .......................... support occupations .... 1,418 1,500 82 293 374 related occupation
1 Major occupational groups 11-0000 through 13-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).
2 Major occupational groups 15-0000 through 29-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).
3 Major occupational groups 31-0000 through 39-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).
4 An occupation is placed into 1 of 11 categories that best describes the postsecondary education or training needed by most workers to become
fully qualified in that occupation. For more information about the categories, see Occupational Projections and Training Data, 2006-07 edition,
Bulletin 2602 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2006) and Occupational Projections and Training Data, 2008-09 edition, Bulletin 2702 (Bureau of
Labor Statistics, forthcoming).
5 Total job openings represent the sum of employment increases and net replacements. If employment change is negative, job openings due to growth
are zero and total job openings equal net replacements. For more information about the occupational replacement needs, see Occupational Projections
and Training Data, 2006-07 edition, Bulletin 2602 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2006) and Occupational Projections and Training Data, 2008-09
edition,
Table 8. The 30 occupations with the largest employment declines, 2006-2016
(In thousands)
Most significant source of
Occupation Occupational group Employment Change postsecondary education
or training (1)
2006 2016 Number Percent
Stock clerks and order fillers ...... Office and administrative Short-term on-the-job
support occupations .......... 1,705 1,574 -131 -7.7 training
Cashiers, except gaming ............. Sales and related occupations . 3,500 3,382 -118 -3.4 Short-term on-the-job
training
Packers and packagers, hand ......... Transportation and material Short-term on-the-job
moving occupations ........... 834 730 -104 -12.4 training
File clerks ......................... Office and administrative Short-term on-the-job
support occupations .......... 234 137 -97 -41.3 training
Farmers and ranchers ................ Management, business, and Long-term on-the-job
financial occupations (2) .... 1,058 969 -90 -8.5 training
Order clerks ........................ Office and administrative Short-term on-the-job
support occupations .......... 271 205 -66 -24.3 training
Sewing machine operators ............ Production occupations ........ 233 170 -63 -27.2 Moderate-term on-the-
job training
Electrical and electronic equipment Short-term on-the-job
assemblers ......................... Production occupations ........ 213 156 -57 -26.8 training
Cutting, punching, and press machine
setters, operators, and tenders, Moderate-term on-the-
metal and plastic .................. Production occupations ........ 272 231 -40 -14.9 job training
Telemarketers ...................... Sales and related occupations . 395 356 -39 -9.9 Short-term on-the-job
training
Inspectors, testers, sorters, Moderate-term on-the-
samplers, and weighers............ Production occupations ........ 491 457 -35 -7.0 job training
First-line supervisors/managers of Work experience in a
production and operating workers . Production occupations ........ 699 665 -34 -4.8 related occupation
Computer operators ................ Office and administrative Moderate-term on-the-
support occupations .......... 130 98 -32 -24.7 job training
Photographic processing machine Short-term on-the-job
operators ....................... Production occupations ........ 49 25 -25 -49.8 training
Driver/sales workers ............. Transportation and material Short-term on-the-job
moving occupations ........... 445 421 -24 -5.3 training
Machine feeders and offbearers ... Transportation and material Short-term on-the-job
moving occupations ........... 148 125 -22 -15.2 training
Packaging and filling machine Short-term on-the-job
operators and tenders ........... Production occupations ........ 386 365 -21 -5.4 training
Word processors and typists ...... Office and administrative Moderate-term on-the-
support occupations .......... 179 158 -21 -11.6 job training
Paper goods machine setters, Moderate-term on-the-
operators, and tenders .......... Production occupations ........ 113 93 -21 -18.2 job training
Farmworkers and laborers, crop, Farming, fishing, and forestry Short-term on-the-job
nursery, and greenhouse ......... occupations .................. 603 583 -20 -3.4 training
Molding, coremaking, and casting
machine setters, operators, and Moderate-term on-the-
tenders, metal and plastic ...... Production occupations ........ 157 137 -20 -12.8 job training
Computer programmers ............. Professional and related
occupations (3) .............. 435 417 -18 -4.1 Bachelor's degree
Mail clerks and mail machine
operators, except postal Office and administrative Short-term on-the-job
service ......................... support occupations .......... 152 134 -18 -11.6 training
Postal service mail sorters,
processors, and processing machine Office and administrative Short-term on-the-job
operators ....................... support occupations .......... 198 181 -17 -8.4 training
Lathe and turning machine tool
setters, operators, and tenders, Moderate-term on-the-
metal and plastic ............... Production occupations ........ 68 52 -16 -23.3 job training
Prepress technicians and workers . Production occupations ........ 71 56 -15 -21.1 Postsecondary vocational
award
Switchboard operators, including Office and administrative Short-term on-the-job
answering service ............... support occupations .......... 177 163 -15 -8.4 training
Data entry keyers ................ Office and administrative Moderate-term on-the-
support occupations .......... 313 299 -15 -4.7 job training
Bindery workers .................. Production occupations ........ 65 51 -14 -21.8 Short-term on-the-job
training
1 An occupation is placed into 1 of 11 categories that best describes the postsecondary education or training needed by most workers to
become fully qualified in that occupation. For more information about the categories, see Occupational Projections and Training Data,
2006-07 edition, Bulletin 2602 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2006) and Occupational Projections and Training Data, 2008-09 edition,
Bulletin 2702 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, forthcoming).
2 Major occupational groups 11-0000 through 13-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).
3 Major occupational groups 15-0000 through 29-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC).
Table 9. Employment and total job openings by postsecondary education and training category
(In thousands)
Most significant source Employment Change
of postsecondary Number Percent distribution 2006-2016
education and training (1) 2006 2016 2006 2016 Number Percent
Total, all occupations ............. 150,620 166,220 100.0 100.0 15,600 10.4
First professional degree ............... 1,970 2,247 1.3 1.4 277 14.0
Doctoral degree ......................... 2,025 2,462 1.3 1.5 437 21.6
Master's degree ......................... 2,167 2,575 1.4 1.5 409 18.9
Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work
experience ..........,.................. 6,524 7,117 4.3 4.3 592 9.1
Bachelor's degree ....................... 18,585 21,659 12.3 13.0 3,074 16.5
Associate degree ........................ 5,812 6,899 3.9 4.2 1,087 18.7
Postsecondary vocational award .......... 7,901 8,973 5.2 5.4 1,072 13.6
Work experience in a related occupation . 14,579 15,889 9.7 9.6 1,310 9.0
Long-term on-the-job training ........... 11,489 12,200 7.6 7.3 711 6.2
Moderate-term on-the-job training ....... 27,230 29,248 18.1 17.6 2,018 7.4
Short-term on-the-job training .......... 52,339 56,951 34.7 34.3 4,613 8.8
1 An occupation is placed into 1 of 11 categories that best describes the postsecondary education
or training needed by most workers to become fully qualified in that occupation. For more informa-
tion about the categories, see Occupational Projections and Training Data, 2006-07 edition, Bul-
letin 2602 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2006) and Occupational Projections and Training
Data, 2008-09 edition, Bulletin 2702 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, forthcoming).
Table 10. Civilian labor force by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin, 1996, 2006, and projected 2016
(In thousands)
Annual growth
Age, sex, race, and Level Change Percent change Percent distribution rate (percent)
ethnicity 1996 2006 2016 1996- 2006- 1996- 2006- 1996- 2006-
2006 2016 2006 2016 1996 2006 2016 2006 2016
Total, 16 years and
older................. 133,943 151,428 164,232 17,485 12,804 13.1 8.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.2 0.8
Age, years:
16 to 24 ............. 21,183 22,394 20,852 1,211 -1,542 5.7 -6.9 15.8 14.8 12.7 .6 -.7
25 to 54 ............. 96,786 103,566 106,026 6,780 2,460 7.0 2.4 72.3 68.4 64.6 .7 .2
55 and older ......... 15,974 25,468 37,354 9,494 11,886 59.4 46.7 11.9 16.8 22.7 4.8 3.9
Sex:
Men .................. 72,087 81,255 87,781 9,168 6,526 12.7 8.0 53.8 53.7 53.4 1.2 .8
Women ................ 61,857 70,173 76,450 8,316 6,277 13.4 8.9 46.2 46.3 46.6 1.3 .9
Race:
White ................ 113,108 123,834 130,665 10,726 6,831 9.5 5.5 84.4 81.8 79.6 .9 .5
Black ................ 15,134 17,314 20,121 2,180 2,807 14.4 16.2 11.3 11.4 12.3 1.4 1.5
Asian ................ 5,701 6,727 8,741 1,026 2,014 18.0 29.9 4.3 4.4 5.3 1.7 2.7
All other groups (1) . - 3,553 4,705 - 1,152 - 32.4 - 2.3 2.9 - 2.8
Ethnicity:
Hispanic origin ...... 12,774 20,694 26,889 7,920 6,195 62.0 29.9 9.5 13.7 16.4 4.9 2.7
Other than Hispanic .. 121,169 30,734 137,343 9,565 6,609 7.9 5.1 90.5 86.3 83.6 .8 .5
White non-Hispanic ... 100,915 104,629 106,133 3,714 1,504 3.7 1.4 75.3 69.1 64.6 .4 .1
1 The "all other groups" category includes (1) those classified as being of multiple racial origin and (2) the race
categories of (2a) American Indian and Alaska Native and (2b) Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders.
NOTE: Dash indicates no data collected for category.