The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
News Bureau of Labor Statistics Technical information: Media contact: (202) 691-5700 http://www.bls.gov/emp/ 691-5902 1 United States Department of Labor Washington, D.C. 20212 USDL 07-1847 For release: 10:00 A.M. EST Tuesday, December 4, 2007 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS: 2006-16 Projections of industry and occupational employment, labor force, and economic growth covering the 2006-16 decade were released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor. The 10-year projections are widely used in career guidance, in education and training program planning, and in studying long-range employment trends. The projections, which are updated every 2 years, continue a 60year tradition of providing information to individuals who are making education and training choices, entering the job market, or changing careers. Over the 2006-16 decade, total employment is projected to increase by 15.6 million jobs, or 10 percent, slightly less than the 15.9 million jobs, or 12 percent, during the 1996-2006 decade. The labor force filling these jobs, while becoming more racially and ethnically diverse, is projected to grow more slowly than in the past. This slowdown in the growth of the labor force is expected, in part, because of the aging and retiring of baby boomers. As a result, the need to replace workers who retire or leave the labor force for other reasons—called replacement needs—is projected to create a significant number of additional job openings. Industry Employment • Employment growth is projected to continue to be concentrated in the service-providing sector of the economy. Service-providing industries will generate almost all of the employment gain from 2006 to 2016 and will provide more than three-quarters of all jobs in 2016. Professional and business services and health care and social assistance, the industry sectors with the largest employment growth, will add 8.1 million jobs, more than half of the projected increase in total employment. (See table 1.) • Within the goods-producing sector, construction is the only sector projected to grow. Employment in manufacturing will decline by 1.5 million jobs. This decline is half of the 3 million manufacturing jobs lost in the previous decade (1996-2006). Employment in goods-producing industries is expected to decrease from 14.9 to 13.1 percent of total employment. (See table 1.) • The 10 detailed industries with the largest projected wage and salary employment growth—led by management, scientific, and technical consulting services; employment services; and general medical and surgical hospitals—all are in the service-providing sector. (See table 2.) • Four of the 10 detailed industries with the largest projected wage and salary employment declines are in the manufacturing sector, including printing and related support activities and motor vehicle parts manufacturing. (See table 3.) 2 Occupational Employment • Professional and related occupations and service occupations—2 major occupational groups on opposite ends of the educational and earnings ranges—are projected to grow the fastest and add the most jobs, accounting for more than 6 of 10 new jobs created over the 2006-16 decade. (See table 4.) • A large portion of job gains and losses are projected to be concentrated in a small number of detailed occupations. The 30 occupations with the largest numeric increases will account for more than half of all new jobs. (See table 5.) The 30 occupations with the largest numeric declines will account for more than two-thirds of all job losses from declining occupations. (See table 8.) • Nineteen of the 30 occupations with the largest job growth are in professional and related occupations and service occupations. (See table 5.) • Twenty-eight of the 30 fastest growing occupations are in professional and related occupations and service occupations. (See table 6.) • Job openings generally are more numerous in large occupations. Of the 30 occupations with the largest number of total job openings due to growth and net replacements, 29 are projected to have more than 1 million jobs in 2016. (See table 7.) • Production occupations and farming, fishing, and forestry occupations are the two major occupational groups projected to lose employment over the decade. (See table 4.) Education and Training Categories • For 19 of the 30 occupations with the largest job growth, short- or moderate-term on-the-job training are the most significant sources of postsecondary education or training. (See table 5.) • For 15 of the 30 fastest growing occupations, a bachelor’s or higher degree is the most significant source of postsecondary education or training. (See table 6.) • On-the-job training and work experience are the most significant source of postsecondary education or training for 24 of the 30 occupations projected to have the most total job openings due to growth and net replacements. (See table 7.) • For 28 of the 30 occupations projected to have the largest employment declines, on-the-job training and work experience are the most significant sources of postsecondary education or training. (See table 8.) • The proportion of jobs in occupations that typically require a college degree will increase slightly between 2006 and 2016. (See table 9.) Labor Force • The civilian labor force is projected to increase by 12.8 million over the 2006-16 decade, reaching 164.2 million by 2016. This 8.5 percent increase is less than the 13.1 percent increase over the previous decade—1996 to 2006—when the labor force grew by 17.5 million. (See table 10.) • The number of workers in the 55-and-older group is projected to grow by 46.7 percent, nearly 5.5 times the 8.5 percent growth projected for the labor force overall. (See table 10.) 3 • Youths—those between the ages of 16 and 24—will decline in numbers and will see their share of the labor force fall from 14.8 to 12.7 percent. The number of prime-age workers—those between the ages of 25 and 54—will increase by 2.4 percent, but their share of the labor force will decline from 68.4 to 64.6 percent. (See table 10.) • The Hispanic labor force is expected to grow by 29.9 percent, reaching 26.9 million by 2016, while the non-Hispanic labor force is projected to grow by only 5.1 percent. (See table 10.) • Increases in the labor force will vary by race. Whites will remain the largest race group despite relatively slow growth of 5.5 percent, composing 79.6 percent of the labor force by 2016. The number of blacks will grow by 16.2 percent and will constitute 12.3 percent of the labor force. Asians will continue to be the fastest growing race group, increasing by 29.9 percent and will make up 5.3 percent of the labor force by 2016. (See table 10.) A Note on Labor Shortages in the Context of Long-Term Economic Projections Users of these data should not assume that the difference between the projected increase in the labor force and the projected increase in employment implies a labor shortage or surplus. The measures upon which the employment and labor force projections are based are different. Employment is a count of jobs; labor force is a count of individuals. In addition, the BLS projections assume a labor market in equilibrium, that is, one where labor supply meets labor demand except for some degree of frictional unemployment. For a discussion of the basic projection methodology, see “An overview of BLS projections to 2016,” James Franklin, November 2007 Monthly Labor Review. For a discussion of labor shortages in the context of long-term projection models, see “Employment projections to 2012: concepts and context,” Michael W. Horrigan, February 2004 Monthly Labor Review. Notes More detailed information on the 2006 to 2016 projections appears in five articles in the November 2007 issue of the Monthly Labor Review, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. The Monthly Labor Review is available online at http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/welcome.htm. The forthcoming 2008-09 editions of the Occupational Outlook Handbook and the Career Guide to Industries will feature the 2006-16 projections in assessing job prospects, work activities, earnings, educational requirements, and more for numerous occupations and industries. The Handbook and Career Guide both will be available online December 18, 2007, at http://www.bls.gov/oco and http://www.bls.gov/ oco/cg, respectively. A graphic presentation of the highlights of the projections appears in the Fall 2007 Occupational Outlook Quarterly. The Quarterly is available online at http://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq. Detailed, comprehensive statistics used in preparing the projections will be published in the 2008-09 edition of the Occupational Projections and Training Data (OPTD). The OPTD will be available online May 2008 at http://www.bls.gov/emp/optd/home.htm. The Occupational Outlook Handbook, Career Guide to Industries, Occupational Outlook Quarterly, Occupational Projections and Training Data, and the Monthly Labor Review are sold by the U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. To order, visit: http://www.bls.gov/emp/emppub01.htm. To order the Monthly Labor Review, visit: http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/subscrib.htm. Information in this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: (202) 691-5200; TDD message referral phone: 1-800-877-8339. Table 1. Employment by major industry sector, 1996, 2006, and projected 2016 (In thousands) Employment Change Percent distribution Industry sector Average annual rate of change 1996- 20062006 2016 2006 2016 19962006 20062016 1996 2006 2016 150,620 166,220 15,930 15,600 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.1 1.0 120,371 136,912 151,962 16,541 15,050 89.4 90.9 91.4 1.3 1.0 Goods-producing, excluding agriculture ……………………..…… 23,329 556 Mining ………………………………… 5,536 Construction ………………………… Manufacturing ……………………… 17,237 22,505 619 7,689 14,197 21,773 608 8,470 12,695 -824 62 2,153 -3,039 -732 -10 781 -1,503 17.3 .4 4.1 12.8 14.9 .4 5.1 9.4 13.1 .4 5.1 7.6 -.4 1.1 3.3 -1.9 -.3 -.2 1.0 -1.1 97,043 640 5,522 14,143 3,936 2,940 6,969 114,407 549 5,898 15,319 4,466 3,055 8,363 130,190 518 6,326 16,006 4,962 3,267 9,570 17,364 -91 376 1,177 530 115 1,395 15,782 -31 429 687 496 212 1,207 72.0 .5 4.1 10.5 2.9 2.2 5.2 76.0 .4 3.9 10.2 3.0 2.0 5.6 78.3 .3 3.8 9.6 3.0 2.0 5.8 1.7 -1.5 .7 .8 1.3 .4 1.8 1.3 -.6 .7 .4 1.1 .7 1.4 13,462 2,078 17,552 2,918 21,644 3,527 4,090 841 4,092 609 10.0 1.5 11.7 1.9 13.0 2.1 2.7 3.5 2.1 1.9 11,605 10,777 5,435 2,877 16,662 14,920 13,143 6,235 2,728 19,262 18,954 15,017 7,077 2,626 20,696 3,315 2,367 800 -149 2,600 4,034 1,873 843 -103 1,434 8.6 8.0 4.0 2.1 12.4 9.9 8.7 4.1 1.8 12.8 11.4 9.0 4.3 1.6 12.5 2.5 2.0 1.4 -.5 1.5 2.4 1.3 1.3 -.4 .7 2,731 1,390 2,139 1,220 1,965 1,114 -592 -170 -173 -105 2.0 1.0 1.4 .8 1.2 .7 -2.4 -1.3 -.8 -.9 1,341 919 851 -422 -68 1.0 .6 .5 -3.7 -.8 9,368 9,772 10,462 404 690 7.0 6.5 6.3 .4 .7 177 178 185 2 7 .1 .1 .1 .1 .4 2,043 1,619 1,646 -425 27 1.5 1.1 1.0 -2.3 .2 1996 Total 1 …………………………………… 134,690 2 Nonagriculture wage and salary …. Service-providing…………...………… Utilities …………………………….. Wholesale trade …………………… Retail trade ………………………… Transportation and warehousing … Information …………………………… Financial activities ………………… Professional and business services …………………………… Educational services ……………… Health care and social assistance ………………………… Leisure and hospitality ……………… Other services ……………………… Federal government ………………… State and local government ……… Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting 3 ………………………… Agriculture wage and salary ………… Agriculture self-employed and unpaid family workers ……………… Nonagriculture self-employed and unpaid family workers ……………… Secondary wage and salary jobs …. in agriculture and private household industries 4 ………………...…. Secondary jobs as self-employed or unpaid family worker 5 …………… 1 Employment data for wage and salary workers are from the BLS Current Employment Statistics survey, which counts jobs, whereas selfemployed, unpaid family workers, and agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting are from the Current Population Survey, which counts 2 Includes wage and salary data from the Current Employment Statistics survey, except private households, which is from the Current Population Survey. Logging workers are excluded. 3 Includes agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting data from the Current Population Survey, except logging, which is from the Current Employment Statistics survey. Government wage and salary workers are excluded. 4 Workers who hold a secondary wage and salary job in agricultural production, forestry, fishing, and private household industries. 5 Wage and salary workers who hold a secondary job as a self-employed or unpaid family worker. Table 2. The 10 industries with the largest wage and salary employment growth, 2006-2016 1 (In thousands) Industry Employment 2006 Change 2016 Number Percent Management, scientific, and technical consulting services ………….… 921 1,639 718 77.9 Employment services ……………………………….……………………… 3,657 4,348 692 18.9 13.9 General medical and surgical hospitals, public and private …………… 4,988 5,679 691 Elementary and secondary schools, public and private ………………. 8,346 8,983 638 7.6 Local government, excluding education and hospitals ………………… 5,594 6,206 612 10.9 Offices of physicians ………………….…………………………………… 2,154 2,687 534 24.8 Limited-service eating places …………………………………………… 4,019 4,548 529 13.2 Colleges, universities, and professional schools, public and private … 3,434 3,933 499 14.5 Computer systems design and related services ………………...…….. 1,278 1,768 489 38.3 Home health care services ………………………..……………………… 867 1,348 481 55.4 1 Data are from the National Employment Matrix. Table 3. The 10 industries with the largest wage and salary employment declines, 2006-2016 1 (In thousands) Industry Employment 2006 Change 2016 Number Percent Gasoline stations …………………………….……………………………… 861 716 -146 -16.9 Printing and related support activities …………….……………………… 636 497 -139 -21.8 Motor vehicle parts manufacturing …………………….………………… 654 516 -138 -21.1 Department stores ………………………………………………………… 1,551 1,438 -113 -7.3 Cut and sew apparel manufacturing ……………………………………… 186 77 -108 -58.4 Wired telecommunications carriers ……………………………………… 478 379 -99 -20.8 Crop production; primary job ……………………………………………… 539 441 -98 -18.2 Federal government, excluding postal service ………………………… 1,958 1,869 -90 -4.6 Office supplies, stationery, and gift stores ……………………………… 379 300 -79 -20.9 Computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing …………………… 199 132 -67 -33.5 1 Data are from the National Employment Matrix. Table 4. Employment by major occupational group, 2006 and projected 2016 (In thousands) Employment Percent distribution Change Occupational group 2006 Total, all occupations ……………………………………………………… 150,620 Management, business, and financial occupations 1 …………………… 15,397 Professional and related occupations 2 ………………………………… 29,819 2016 2006 2016 Percent Number 166,220 100.0 100.0 10.4 16,993 10.2 10.2 10.4 1,596 34,790 19.8 20.9 16.7 4,970 4,830 15,600 Service occupations 3 ……………………………………………………… 28,950 33,780 19.2 20.3 16.7 Sales and related occupations …………..………………………………… 15,985 17,203 10.6 10.3 7.6 1,218 Office and administrative support occupations ………………………… 24,344 26,089 16.2 15.7 7.2 1,745 Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations ……………………………… 1,039 1,010 .7 .6 -2.8 -29 Construction and extraction occupations ……………….……………… 8,295 9,079 5.5 5.5 9.5 785 Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations ……………………… 5,883 6,433 3.9 3.9 9.3 550 Production occupations ……………………….…………………………… 10,675 10,147 7.1 6.1 -4.9 -528 Transportation and material moving occupations ……………………… 10,233 10,695 6.8 6.4 4.5 462 1 Major occupational groups 11-0000 through 13-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). 2 Major occupational groups 15-0000 through 29-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). 3 Major occupational groups 31-0000 through 39-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). 226 733 2,053 1,860 149 827 1,531 402 1,040 1,449 1,391 262 902 Maintenance and repair workers, general …………………………………Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations …… Network systems and data communications analysts ……………………Professional and related occupations ………………… 3 Food preparation workers ……………………………………………………Service occupations …………………………………… 2 Teacher assistants ……………………………………………………………Professional and related occupations ………………… 1,312 137 138 140 140 146 148 10.4 15.3 53.4 10.1 29.0 35.4 21.9 10.3 16.9 12.7 10.4 17.2 13.6 18.1 17.7 44.6 14.8 17.8 10.8 12.5 18.2 14.5 22.9 48.7 50.6 12.6 18.1 24.8 12.4 23.5 Percent Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Bachelor's degree Moderate-term on-the-job training Bachelor's degree Moderate-term on-the-job training work experience Bachelor's or higher degree, plus Long-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Bachelor's degree Short-term on-the-job training Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Short-term on-the-job training Work experience in a related occupation Short-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Postsecondary vocational award Short-term on-the-job training Doctoral degree Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Associate degree Most significant source of postsecondary education or training 1 4 3 2 Major occupational groups 11-0000 through 13-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). Major occupational groups 31-0000 through 39-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). Major occupational groups 15-0000 through 29-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). Bulletin 2702 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, forthcoming). An occupation is placed into 1 of 11 categories that best describes the postsecondary education or training needed by most workers to become fully qualified in that occupation. For more information about categories, see Occupational Projections and Training Data , 2006-07 edition, Bulletin 2602 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2006) and Occupational Projections and Training Data , 2008-09 edition, 1 650 504 2 565 417 3 Medical assistants ……………………………………………………………Service occupations …………………………………… 2 Computer systems analysts …………………………………………………Professional and related occupations ……………… 150 1,612 Carpenters ……………………………………………………………………Construction and extraction occupations ……………… 1,462 4 678 Management analysts ……………………………………………………… Management, business, and financial occupations … 175 1,216 1,040 186 1,656 1,470 3 Maids and housekeeping cleaners …………………………………………Service occupations …………………………………… 3 Security guards ………………………………………………………………Service occupations …………………………………… 193 202 1,375 Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer ……………………………………Transportation and material moving occupations …… 209 221 1,441 1,749 1,220 226 1,500 248 2 Elementary school teachers, except special education …………………Professional and related occupations ………………… 1,540 1,173 Receptionists and information clerks ………………………………………Office and administrative support occupations ……… Accountants and auditors ……………………………………………………Management, business, and financial occupations 3 Landscaping and groundskeeping workers ……………………………… Service occupations …………………………………… 1,274 1,857 1,618 Executive secretaries and administrative assistants …………………… Office and administrative support occupations ……… 2 507 Computer software engineers, applications ………………………………Professional and related occupations ………………… 4… 239 1,636 1,388 255 2,615 264 264 345 382 384 389 2,377 1,711 452 404 2,361 2,732 1,447 2,054 1,672 2,387 1,171 1,156 767 787 2,955 3,604 2,503 3,200 545 2,114 Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks ……………………………Office and administrative support occupations ……… 3 Waiters and waitresses ………………………………………………………Service occupations …………………………………… 3 Child care workers ……………………………………………………………Service occupations …………………………………… Service occupations 3 …………………………………… Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners ……… 3 Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants ………………………………… Service occupations …………………………………… 3 Home health aides ……………………………………………………………Service occupations …………………………………… Professional and related occupations 2 ……………… Postsecondary teachers …………………………………………………… Office clerks, general …………………………………………………………Office and administrative support occupations ……… 3 Personal and home care aides …………………………………………… Service occupations …………………………………… Customer service representatives …………………………………………Office and administrative support occupations ……… 3 Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food …Service occupations …………………………………… Retail salespersons ………………………………………………………… Sales and related occupations ………………………… 2,747 Number 2,202 2016 557 2006 Change 587 2 Employment 5,034 Occupational group 3,092 Occupation Registered nurses ………………………………………………………….. Professional and related occupations ………………… 2,505 4,477 (In thousands) Table 5. The 30 occupations with the largest employment growth, 2006-2016 Occupation Occupational group 2 2 2 2 2 2 ……………… ……………… ……………… ……………… 2 2 ……………… ……………… 66 83 220 100 78 173 47 24 18 36 449 154 119 350 650 504 32 362 25 159 130 217 280 122 100 167 17 376 285 13 80 12 9 60 453 339 51 295 38 221 84 112 62 83 3 565 2 417 100 248 71 733 176 1,171 787 507 402 1,156 767 2016 262 2006 Employment 27.0 27.1 27.6 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.6 29.0 29.2 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.7 32.0 32.4 33.6 33.6 33.8 34.3 34.3 35.0 35.4 39.8 41.0 41.0 44.6 48.7 50.6 53.4 Percent 18 47 22 10 5 99 34 146 82 7 37 30 50 4 91 20 3 114 75 13 29 22 148 1 72 29 226 384 389 140 Number Change Master's degree Master's degree Postsecondary vocational award Associate degree Short-term on-the-job training Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Moderate-term on-the-job training Master's degree Master's degree Master's degree Associate degree Bachelor's degree Moderate-term on-the-job training Associate degree Moderate-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Bachelor's degree Postsecondary vocational award Bachelor's degree First professional degree Moderate-term on-the-job training Postsecondary vocational award Bachelor's degree Associate degree Bachelor's degree Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Bachelor's degree Most significant source of postsecondary education or training 1 4 3 2 Major occupational groups 11-0000 through 13-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). Major occupational groups 31-0000 through 39-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). Major occupational groups 15-0000 through 29-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). Bulletin 2702 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, forthcoming). An occupation is placed into 1 of 11 categories that best describes the postsecondary education or training needed by most workers to become fully qualified in that occupation. For more information about categories, see Occupational Projections and Training Data , 2006-07 edition, Bulletin 2602 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2006) and Occupational Projections and Training Data , 2008-09 edition, 1 Physical therapists …………………………………………………...……Professional and related occupations Physician assistants ……………………………………………………… Professional and related occupations Environmental science and protection technicians, including health …Professional and related occupations ……………… 3 Manicurists and pedicurists …………………………………………….…Service occupations …………………………………… 2 Computer software engineers, systems software ………………………Professional and related occupations ………………… 3 Gaming and sports book writers and runners ……………………………Service occupations …………………………………… 2 Professional and related occupations 2 ……………… Computer systems analysts …………………………………………..…… Professional and related occupations 2 ………………… Database administrators …………………………………………………… Marriage and family therapists ……………………………………………Professional and related occupations ………………… 3 Dental assistants ……………………………………………………………Service occupations …………………………………… Mental health counselors ………………………………………………… Professional and related occupations Mental health and substance abuse social workers ……………………Professional and related occupations Professional and related occupations Forensic science technicians ……………………………………………… Dental hygienists …………………………………………………..………Professional and related occupations Physical therapist assistants …………………………………………….. Service occupations …………………………………… Professional and related occupations 2 ………………… Pharmacy technicians ……………………………………………………… 3 Social and human service assistants ……………………………………Professional and related occupations ………………… 3 Gaming surveillance officers and gaming investigators ……………… Service occupations …………………………………… 2 Skin care specialists ……………………………………………………… Service occupations …………………………………… 4 Financial analysts ………………………………………………………… Management, business, and financial occupations … 3 2 Veterinarians ……………………………………………………………….Professional and related occupations ……………… 2 Substance abuse and behavioral disorder counselors …………………Professional and related occupations ………………… 3 Makeup artists, theatrical and performance …………………………… Service occupations …………………………………… 3 occupations …………………………………… Medical assistants …………………………………………………………Service 2 Veterinary technologists and technicians ……………………………… Professional and related occupations ……………… 4 Personal financial advisors ……………………………….………………Management, business, and financial occupations … Home health aides …………………………….……………………………Service occupations …………………………………… 2 Computer software engineers, applications …………………………… Professional and related occupations ……………… 3 Network systems and data communications analysts …………………Professional and related occupations ………………… Service occupations 3 …………………………………… Personal and home care aides …………….……………………………… (In thousands) Table 6. The 30 fastest-growing occupations, 2006-2016 …………………………………… …………………………………… 1,500 1,441 1,216 82 221 175 293 161 211 130 405 352 370 415 224 313 70 277 345 287 258 130 330 336 331 399 280 457 773 475 587 413 613 1,282 1,664 1,378 Net replacement needs 374 382 387 393 405 423 424 441 450 451 454 463 476 489 497 519 523 545 594 646 662 802 823 927 991 1,001 1,158 1,537 1,664 1,935 Total job openings due to growth and net replacements 1 Work experience in a related occupation Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Postsecondary vocational award Short-term on-the-job training Work experience in a related occupation Short-term on-the-job training Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience Bachelor's degree Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Work experience in a related occupation Short-term on-the-job training Work experience in a related occupation Short-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Bachelor's degree Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Doctoral degree Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Associate degree Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Most significant source of postsecondary education or training 2 Total job openings represent the sum of employment increases and net replacements. If employment change is negative, job openings due to growth are zero and total job openings equal net replacements. For more information about 1,418 1,220 1,040 264 -131 71 54 26 226 138 384 186 131 202 239 389 193 209 264 248 382 345 50 452 404 587 545 255 -118 557 Number Change An occupation is placed into 1 of 11 categories that best describes the postsecondary education or training needed by most workers to become fully qualified in that occupation. For more information about the categories, see 5 4 3 Major occupational groups 11-0000 through 13-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). Major occupational groups 15-0000 through 29-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). Major occupational groups 31-0000 through 39-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). Occupational Projections and Training Data, 2006-07 edition, Bulletin 2602 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2006) and Occupational Projections and Training Data, 2008-09 edition, Bulletin 2702 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, forthcoming). 2 Bulletin 2702 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, forthcoming). the occupational replacement needs, see Occupational Projections and Training Data, 2006-07 edition, Bulletin 2602 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2006) and Occupational Projections and Training Data, 2008-09 edition, 1 support workers …………………………………………………………Office and administrative support occupations ………… First-line supervisors/managers of office and administrative 3 …………………………………… 1,711 1,447 3 1,574 1,705 Security guards ……………………………………………………………Service occupations Landscaping and groundskeeping workers …………………………… Service occupations 1,747 1,676 First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers ………………Sales and related occupations ………………………… 1,746 1,720 Stock clerks and order fillers …………………………………………… Office and administrative support occupations ………… 3 Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants ……………………………… Service occupations …………………………………… …………………………………… 587 3 1,040 1,500 902 1,171 1,656 1,693 1,274 787 1,470 1,562 533 Counter attendants, cafeteria, food concession, and coffee shop ……Service occupations Food preparation workers …………………………………………………Service occupations …………………………………… 5 Accountants and auditors …………………………………………………Management, business, and financial occupations … 5 General and operations managers ………………………………………Management, business, and financial occupations … 3 3 technical and scientific products ………………………………………Sales and related occupations ………………………… 3 …………………………………… Maids and housekeeping cleaners ………………………………………Service occupations Home health aides …………………………………………………………Service occupations 1,375 1,173 Receptionists and information clerks ……………………………………Office and administrative support occupations ………… Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except 1,156 1,857 767 1,618 Executive secretaries and administrative assistants ………………… Office and administrative support occupations ………… 2,053 1,860 1,749 1,540 Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer …………………………………Transportation and material moving occupations …… 3 Personal and home care aides ………………………………………… Service occupations …………………………………… 2,377 2,114 Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks …………………………Office and administrative support occupations ………… 4 Elementary school teachers, except special education ………………Professional and related occupations ………………… 1,636 1,388 Child care workers …………………………………………………………Service occupations …………………………………… 3 1,672 2,054 2,732 2,387 4 Postsecondary teachers ………………………………………………… Professional and related occupations ………………… 2,955 2,466 2,503 2,416 …………………………………… Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand ………………Transportation and material moving occupations …… Service occupations 3 …………………………………… Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners …… fast food …………………………………………………………………Service occupations 3 3,200 Combined food preparation and serving workers, including 3,092 2,505 Office clerks, general ………………………………………………………Office and administrative support occupations ………… 3,604 2,747 2,615 2,202 2,361 Customer service representatives ………………………………………Office and administrative support occupations ………… 4 Registered nurses …………………………………………………………Professional and related occupations ………………… 3,382 5,034 2016 3,500 2006 4,477 Occupational group Cashiers, except gaming …………………………………………………Sales and related occupations ………………………… 3 Waiters and waitresses ……………………………………………………Service occupations …………………………………… Occupation Employment Retail salespersons ………………………………………..………………Sales and related occupations ………………………… (In thousands) Table 7. The 30 occupations with the largest number of total job openings due to growth and net replacements, 2006-2016 1,058 271 233 213 Order clerks ………………………………………………………………………………Office and administrative support occupations ………… Sewing machine operators …………………………………………………………… Production occupations …………………………………… Electrical and electronic equipment assemblers ……………………………………Production occupations …………………………………… 158 93 491 699 130 49 445 148 386 179 113 603 Inspectors, testers, sorters, samplers, and weighers ………………………………Production occupations …………………………………… First-line supervisors/managers of production and operating workers ……………Production occupations …………………………………… Computer operators ……………………………………………………………………Office and administrative support occupations ………… Production occupations …………………………………… Photographic processing machine operators ………………………………………… Driver/sales workers ……………………………………………………………………Transportation and material moving occupations ……… Machine feeders and offbearers ………………………………………………………Transportation and material moving occupations ……… Packaging and filling machine operators and tenders ………………………………Production occupations …………………………………… Word processors and typists ………………………………………………………… Office and administrative support occupations ………… Paper goods machine setters, operators, and tenders …………………………… Production occupations …………………………………… Farmworkers and laborers, crop, nursery, and greenhouse ……………………… Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations …………… 198 Postal service mail sorters, processors, and processing machine operators ……Office and administrative support occupations ………… tenders, metal and plastic ……………………………………………………………Production occupations …………………………………… 177 313 65 Switchboard operators, including answering service ……………………………… Office and administrative support occupations ………… Data entry keyers ……………………………………………………………………… Office and administrative support occupations ………… Bindery workers …………………………………………………………………………Production occupations …………………………………… 51 -14 -15 -15 -15 -16 -16 -17 -18 -18 -20 -20 -21 -21 -21 -22 -24 -25 -32 -34 -35 -39 -40 -57 -63 -66 -90 -97 -104 -21.8 -4.7 -8.4 -21.1 -23.3 -15.7 -8.4 -11.6 -4.1 -12.8 -3.4 -18.2 -11.6 -5.4 -15.2 -5.3 -49.8 -24.7 -4.8 -7.0 -9.9 -14.9 -26.8 -27.2 -24.3 -8.5 -41.3 -12.4 -3.4 -7.7 Short-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Postsecondary vocational award Moderate-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Bachelor's degree Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Work experience in a related occupation Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Long-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Most significant source of postsecondary education or training 1 3 2 Major occupational groups 15-0000 through 29-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). Major occupational groups 11-0000 through 13-0000 in the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). (Bureau of Labor Statistics, forthcoming). An occupation is placed into 1 of 11 categories that best describes the postsecondary education or training needed by most workers to become fully qualified in that occupation. For more information about the categories, see Occupational Projections and Training Data , 2006-07 edition, Bulletin 2602 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2006) and Occupational Projections and Training Data , 2008-09 edition, Bulletin 2702 1 163 71 299 56 68 plastic ………………………………………………………………………………… Production occupations …………………………………… 52 85 181 Prepress technicians and workers ……………………………………………………Production occupations …………………………………… Lathe and turning machine tool setters, operators, and tenders, metal and 101 152 Mail clerks and mail machine operators, except postal service ……………………Office and administrative support occupations ………… Grinding, lapping, polishing, and buffing machine tool setters, operators, and 417 435 134 137 157 583 125 421 25 98 665 457 metal and plastic ………………………………………………………………………Production occupations …………………………………… 3 Computer programmers ……………………………………………………………… Professional and related occupations ………………… Molding, coremaking, and casting machine setters, operators, and tenders, 365 395 356 272 and plastic …………………………………………………………………………… Production occupations …………………………………… 231 156 170 Telemarketers ……………………………………………………………………………Sales and related occupations …………………………… Cutting, punching, and press machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal 969 234 Office and administrative support occupations ………… File clerks ………………………………………………………………………………… 2 Farmers and ranchers ………………………………………………………………… Management, business, and financial occupations … 205 137 834 Packers and packagers, hand …………………………………………………………Transportation and material moving occupations ……… 730 3,382 -118 -131 1,574 Stock clerks and order fillers …………………………………………………………… Office and administrative support occupations ………… Percent Change 1,705 2006 Employment Cashiers, except gaming ………………………………………………………………Sales and related occupations …………………………… 3,500 Occupational group Number Occupation 2016 (In thousands) Table 8. The 30 occupations with the largest employment declines, 2006-2016 Table 9. Employment and total job openings by postsecondary education and training category (In thousands) Most significant source Employment of postsecondary Number education and training 1 Total, all occupations ……………………………………… Change Percent distribution 2006 2016 2006-2016 2006 2016 Number Percent 150,620 166,220 100.0 100.0 15,600 10.4 First professional degree ………………………….…………… 1,970 2,247 1.3 1.4 277 14.0 Doctoral degree ………………………………….……………… 2,025 2,462 1.3 1.5 437 21.6 Master's degree ………………………………………………… 2,167 2,575 1.4 1.5 409 18.9 Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience ………… 6,524 7,117 4.3 4.3 592 9.1 Bachelor's degree ……………………………………………… 18,585 21,659 12.3 13.0 3,074 16.5 Associate degree ………………………….…………………… 5,812 6,899 3.9 4.2 1,087 18.7 Postsecondary vocational award ……………………………… 7,901 8,973 5.2 5.4 1,072 13.6 Work experience in a related occupation …………………… 14,579 15,889 9.7 9.6 1,310 9.0 Long-term on-the-job training ………………………………… 11,489 12,200 7.6 7.3 711 6.2 Moderate-term on-the-job training …………………………… 27,230 29,248 18.1 17.6 2,018 7.4 Short-term on-the-job training ………………………………… 52,339 56,951 34.7 34.3 4,613 8.8 1 An occupation is placed into 1 of 11 categories that best describes the postsecondary education or training needed by most workers to become fully qualified in that occupation. For more information about the categories, see Occupational Projections and Training Data, 2006-07 edition, Bulletin 2602 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2006) and Occupational Projections and Training Data, 2008-09 edition, Bulletin 2702 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, forthcoming). Table 10. Civilian labor force by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin, 1996, 2006, and projected 2016 (In thousands) Level Change Age, sex, race, and ethnicity 1996 Total, 16 years and older ……… 133,943 2006 2016 151,428 164,232 Percent change 1996- 2006- 1996- 2006- 2006 2016 2006 2016 17,485 12,804 13.1 8.5 Annual growth rate (percent) Percent distribution 1996 2006 2016 100.0 100.0 100.0 1996- 2006- 2006 2016 1.2 0.8 Age, years: 16 to 24 ………………………… 21,183 22,394 20,852 1,211 -1,542 5.7 -6.9 15.8 14.8 12.7 .6 25 to 54 ………………………… 96,786 103,566 106,026 6,780 2,460 7.0 2.4 72.3 68.4 64.6 .7 -.7 .2 55 and older …………………… 15,974 25,468 37,354 9,494 11,886 59.4 46.7 11.9 16.8 22.7 4.8 3.9 Sex: Men …………………………… 72,087 81,255 87,781 9,168 6,526 12.7 8.0 53.8 53.7 53.4 1.2 .8 Women ………………………… 61,857 70,173 76,450 8,316 6,277 13.4 8.9 46.2 46.3 46.6 1.3 .9 Race: White …………………………… 113,108 123,834 130,665 10,726 6,831 9.5 5.5 84.4 81.8 79.6 .9 .5 Black …………………………… 15,134 17,314 20,121 2,180 2,807 14.4 16.2 11.3 11.4 12.3 1.4 1.5 5,701 – 6,727 8,741 4.3 – 4.4 5.3 2.3 2.9 1.7 – 2.7 1,152 18.0 – 29.9 4,705 1,026 – 2,014 3,553 Asian …………………………… All other groups 1 ……………… 32.4 2.8 Ethnicity: Hispanic origin ………………… 12,774 20,694 26,889 7,920 6,195 62.0 29.9 9.5 13.7 16.4 4.9 2.7 Other than Hispanic origin …… 121,169 130,734 137,343 9,565 6,609 7.9 5.1 90.5 86.3 83.6 .8 .5 White non-Hispanic………… 100,915 104,629 106,133 3,714 1,504 3.7 1.4 75.3 69.1 64.6 .4 .1 1 The “all other groups" category includes (1) those classified as being of multiple racial origin and (2) the race categories of (2a) American Indian and Alaska Native and (2b) Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders. NOTE: Dash indicates no data collected for category.