The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
Technical Information: (202) 691-5700 USDL 99-339
Media Contact: (202) 691-5902 For release: 10 A.M. EST
Tuesday, November 30, 1999
Internet: http://stats.bls.gov/emphome.htm
BLS RELEASES NEW 1998-2008 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS
New projections for the American work force from 1998 to 2008 were
released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor,
providing information on where future job growth is expected by industry and
occupation and what the makeup of the work force pursuing those jobs is
likely to be.
These 10-year projections of employment by industry and occupation, labor
force, and economic growth are widely used in career guidance, in planning
education and training programs, and in studying long-range employment trends.
Employment
Over the 1998-2008 period, total employment is projected to increase by 14
percent. This growth rate is slower than during the previous 10-year period,
1988-1998, when growth was 17 percent. (The definition of employment used in
these projections differs from those used in other BLS programs. See table 1.)
Industry employment
* Service-producing industries will account for virtually all of the job
growth. Only construction will add jobs in the goods-producing sector,
offsetting declines in manufacturing and mining.
* Manufacturing's share of total jobs is expected to decline, as a decrease of
89,000 manufacturing jobs is projected. Manufacturing is expected to
maintain its share of total output, as productivity in this sector is
projected to increase. Accounting for 13 percent of employment in 1998,
manufacturing is expected to account for just 12 percent in 2008.
* Health services, business services, social services, and engineering,
management, and related services are expected to account for almost one of
every two nonfarm wage and salary jobs added to the economy during the
1998-2008 period. The five fastest-growing industries all belong to one of
these four industry groups. (See table 3a.)
Occupational employment
* Professional specialty occupations are projected to increase the fastest and
to add the most jobs--5.3 million. This group also had the fastest rate of
increase and the largest job growth in the 1988-98 period. Service workers
are expected to add 3.9 million jobs. These two groups--on opposite ends of
the educational attainment and earnings spectrum--are expected to provide 45
percent of total projected job growth over the 1998-2008 period. (See table 2.)
* Other groups that are projected to grow faster than the average are
executive, administrative, and managerial occupations; technicians and
related support occupations; and marketing and sales occupations.
* Administrative support occupations including clerical are projected to grow
slower than the average and slightly slower than in the past, reflecting the
impact of office automation.
* Precision production, craft, and repair occupations and operators,
fabricators, and laborers are projected to grow much more slowly than the
average due to continuing advances in technology, changes in production
methods, and the overall decline in manufacturing employment.
* The five fastest-growing occupations are computer-related occupations,
commonly referred to as information technology occupations. (See table 3b.)
* The 10 occupations adding the most jobs will account for nearly one-fifth of
total employment growth. (See table 3c.)
Education and training
Employment in all education and training categories that generally require
an associate degree or more education is projected to grow faster than the 14
percent average for all occupations. In contrast, all other categories are
expected to grow less than 14 percent. Occupations generally requiring an
associate degree are projected to grow 31 percent, faster than all other
education categories over the 1998-2008 period. (See table 4.)
Labor force
The supply of workers, the labor force, is projected to increase by 12
percent over the 1998-2008 period. This represents a somewhat lower growth
rate than the 13 percent increase over the previous 10-year period, 1988-98.
(See table 5.) The projections indicate that the demographic composition of
the labor force is expected to change because the population itself will change
and because work force participation will change.
* The labor force age 45-64 will grow faster than the labor force of any other
age group as the baby-boom generation (born 1946-64) continues to age. The
labor force 25 to 34 years of age is projected to decline by 2.7 million,
reflecting the decrease in births in the late 1960s and early 1970s.
* The labor force participation rates of women in nearly all age groups are
projected to increase. Men's labor force participation rates for 5-year age
groups are projected to remain relatively constant, but aggregate
participation is projected to continue to decline as the population shifts to
older age groups that have lower participation rates. As a result, the
women's labor force will grow more rapidly than the men's, and the women's
share of the labor force will increase from 46 percent in 1998 to 48 percent
in 2008.
* The Asian and other labor force and the Hispanic labor force are projected to
increase faster than other groups, 40 percent and 37 percent, respectively,
because of high net immigration and higher than average fertility. The black
labor force is expected to grow by 20 percent, twice as fast as the 10
percent growth rate for the white labor force.
* The Asian and other share of the labor force will increase from 5 to 6
percent and the Hispanic share from 10 to 13 percent. White non-Hispanics
accounted for 74 percent of the labor force in 1998. Their share of the labor
force in 2008 will decrease modestly to 71 percent.
* By 2008, the Hispanic labor force will be larger than the black labor force.
Notes
More detailed information on the 1998-2008 projections appears in five
articles in the November 1999 issue of the Monthly Labor Review, published by
the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. A graphic
presentation of the highlights of the projections will appear in the
forthcoming Winter 1999-2000 Occupational Outlook Quarterly.
The Monthly Labor Review and Occupational Outlook Quarterly are sold by
the U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. The Review
costs $27 a year; single copies are $8.50. The Quarterly costs $9.50 a year;
single copies are $3.75. Make checks payable to the Superintendent
of Documents.
Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired
individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-606-7828, Telecommunications
Device for the Deaf (TDD) phone: 202-606-5897, TDD Message Referral Phone
Number: 1-800-326-2577.
Table 1. Employment by major industry division, 1988, 1998, and projected 2008
Thousands of jobs Change Percent Change Percent distribution
Industry 1988 1998 2008 1988-98 1998-2008 1988-98 1998-2008 1988 1998 2008
Total 1/ 120,010 140,514 160,795 20,503 20,281 17 14 100.0 100.0 100.0
Nonfarm wage and salary 2/ 105,723 125,849 145,285 20,125 19,437 19 15 88.1 89.6 90.4
Goods producing 25,125 25,347 25,694 222 347 1 1 20.9 18.0 16.0
Mining 713 590 475 -123 -115 -17 -19 .6 .4 .3
Construction 5,098 5,985 6,535 887 550 17 9 4.2 4.3 4.1
Manufacturing 19,314 18,772 18,684 -542 -89 -3 0 16.1 13.4 11.6
Durable 11,363 11,170 11,277 -193 107 -2 1 9.5 7.9 7.0
Nondurable 7,951 7,602 7,406 -349 -196 -4 -3 6.6 5.4 4.6
Service producing 80,598 100,502 119,591 19,903 19,090 25 19 67.2 71.5 74.4
Transportation,
communications, and
utilities 5,512 6,600 7,541 1,088 941 20 14 4.6 4.7 4.7
Wholesale trade 6,030 6,831 7,330 802 499 13 7 5.0 4.9 4.6
Retail trade 19,023 22,296 25,363 3,273 3,067 17 14 15.9 15.9 15.8
Finance, insurance, and
real estate 6,629 7,408 8,367 778 960 12 13 5.5 5.3 5.2
Services 2/ 26,019 37,548 49,302 11,529 11,754 44 31 21.7 26.7 30.7
Government 17,386 19,819 21,688 2,433 1,869 14 9 14.5 14.1 13.5
Federal government 2,971 2,686 2,550 -285 -136 -10 -5 2.5 1.9 1.6
State and local
government 14,415 17,133 19,138 2,718 2,005 19 12 12.0 12.2 11.9
Agriculture 3/ 3,355 3,576 3,526 287 -51 9 -1 2.8 2.5 2.2
Private household wage
and salary 1,153 962 759 -191 -203 -17 -21 1.0 0.7 0.5
Nonagricultural
self-employed and
unpaid family workers 4/ 8,731 9,029 9,925 298 896 3 10 7.3 6.4 6.2
Secondary wage and salary
jobs in agriculture
(except agricultural
services); forestry,
fishing, hunting, and
trapping; and private
households 5/ 211 163 158 -48 -5 -23 -3 0.2 0.1 0.1
Secondary jobs as a
self-employed or
unpaid family worker 6/ 1,990 1,897 1,901 -94 5 -5 0 1.7 1.3 1.2
1/ Employment data for wage and salary workers are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly, Current
Employment Statistics (payroll survey), which counts jobs, whereas self-employed, unpaid family worker,
agricultural, and private household data are from the Current Population Survey (household survey), which
counts workers.
2/ Excludes SIC 074,5,8 (agricultural services) and 99 (nonclassifiable establishments) and is therefore not
directly comparable with data published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly periodical, Employment
and Earnings.
3/ Excludes government wage and salary workers and includes private sector for SIC 08,09 (forestry, fishing,
hunting, and trapping).
4/ Excludes SIC 08,09 (forestry, fishing, hunting, and trapping).
5/ Workers who hold a secondary wage and salary job in agriculture (except agricultural services); forestry,
fishing, hunting and trapping; and private households.
6/ Wage and salary workers who hold a secondary job as a self-employed or unpaid family worker.
Table 2. Employment by major occupational group, 1988, 1998, and projected 2008
[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
Employment Change
Occupational group Number Percent distribution Number Percent
1988 1998 2008 1988 1998 2008 1988-98 1998-2008 1988-98 1998-2008
Total, all occupations 120,010 140,514 160,795 100.0 100.0 100.0 20,504 20,281 17.1 14.4
Executive, administrative, and managerial 12,330 14,770 17,196 10.3 10.5 10.7 2,440 2,426 19.8 16.4
Professional specialty 15,035 19,802 25,145 12.5 14.1 15.6 4,767 5,343 31.7 27.0
Technicians and related support 3,880 4,949 6,048 3.2 3.5 3.8 1,069 1,098 27.6 22.2
Marketing and sales 12,390 15,341 17,627 10.3 10.9 11.0 2,950 2,287 23.8 14.9
Administrative support, including clerical 22,251 24,461 26,659 18.5 17.4 16.6 2,210 2,198 9.9 9.0
Service 18,554 22,548 26,401 15.5 16.0 16.4 3,993 3,853 21.5 17.1
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and related 4,224 4,435 4,506 3.5 3.2 2.8 212 71 5.0 1.6
Precision production, craft, and repair 14,333 15,619 16,871 11.9 11.1 10.5 1,286 1,252 9.0 8.0
Operators, fabricators, and laborers 17,012 18,588 20,341 14.2 13.2 12.7 1,576 1,753 9.3 9.4
Note: Detail may not equal total or 100 percent due to rounding.
Table 3a. The 10 industries with the fastest wage and salary employment growth, 1998-2008
[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
Industry Employment Change
1998 2008 Number Percent
Computer and data processing services 1,599 3,472 1,872 117
Health services, not elsewhere classified 1,209 2,018 809 67
Residential care 747 1,171 424 57
Management and public relations 1,034 1,500 466 45
Personnel supply services 3,230 4,623 1,393 43
Miscellaneous equipment rental and leasing 258 369 111 43
Museums, botanical and zoological gardens 93 131 39 42
Research and testing services 614 861 247 40
Miscellaneous transportation services 236 329 94 40
Security and commodity brokers 645 900 255 40
Table 3b. The 10 fastest growing occupations, 1998-2008
[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
Occupation Employment Change
1998 2008 Number Percent
Computer engineers 299 622 323 108
Computer support specialists 429 869 439 102
Systems analysts 617 1,194 577 94
Database administrators 87 155 67 77
Desktop publishing specialists 26 44 19 73
Paralegals and legal assistants 136 220 84 62
Personal care and home health aides 746 1,179 433 58
Medical assistants 252 398 146 58
Social and human service assistants 268 410 141 53
Physician assistants 66 98 32 48
Table 3c. The 10 occupations with the largest job growth, 1998-2008
[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
Occupation Employment Change
1998 2008 Number Percent
Systems analysts 617 1,194 577 94
Retail salespersons 4,056 4,620 563 14
Cashiers 3,198 3,754 556 17
General managers and top executives 3,362 3,913 551 16
Truck drivers, light and heavy 2,970 3,463 493 17
Office clerks, general 3,021 3,484 463 15
Registered nurses 2,079 2,530 451 22
Computer support specialists 429 869 439 102
Personal care and home health aides 746 1,179 433 58
Teacher assistants 1,192 1,567 375 31
Table 4. Employment and total job openings, 1998-2008, by education and training category
[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
Employment Change, Total job openings due to
1998-2008 growth and net replacements,
1998-2008 1/
Percent Percent
Education and training category Number distribution Number Percent Number distribution
1998 2008 1998 2008
Total, all occupations 140,514 160,795 100.0 100.0 20,281 14.4 55,008 100.0
First professional degree 1,908 2,215 1.4 1.4 308 16.1 617 1.1
Doctoral degree 996 1,228 .7 .8 232 23.3 502 .9
Master's degree 940 1,115 .7 .7 174 18.6 374 .7
Work experience plus bachelor's
or higher degree 9,595 11,276 6.8 7.0 1,680 17.5 3,372 6.1
Bachelor's degree 17,379 21,596 12.4 13.4 4,217 24.3 7,822 14.2
Associate degree 4,930 6,467 3.5 4.0 1,537 31.2 2,422 4.4
Postsecondary vocational training 4,508 5,151 3.2 3.2 643 14.3 1,680 3.1
Work experience in a related occupation 11,174 12,490 8.0 7.8 1,316 11.8 3,699 6.7
Long-term on-the-job training 13,436 14,604 9.6 9.1 1,168 8.7 4,411 8.0
Moderate-term on-the-job training 20,521 21,952 14.6 13.7 1,430 7.0 6,218 11.3
Short-term on-the-job training 55,125 62,701 39.2 39.0 7,576 13.7 23,890 43.4
1/ Total job openings represent the sum of employment increases and net replacements. If
employment change is negative, job openings due to growth are zero and total job openings equal
net replacements.
Note: Detail may not equal total or 100 percent due to rounding.
Table 5. Civilian labor force 16 years and older by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1988, 1998, and projected 2008
[Numbers in thousands]
Level Change Percent change Percent distribution
Group 1988 1998 2008 1988-98 1998-2008 1988-98 1998-2008 1988 1998 2008
Total 121,669 137,673 154,576 16,004 16,903 13.2 12.3 100.0 100.0 100.0
Men 66,927 73,959 81,132 7,032 7,173 10.5 9.7 55.0 53.7 52.5
Women 54,742 63,714 73,444 8,972 9,729 16.4 15.3 45.0 46.3 47.5
Age 16 to 24 22,536 21,894 25,210 -642 3,316 -2.8 15.1 18.5 15.9 16.3
Age 25 to 54 84,041 98,718 104,133 14,677 5,415 17.5 5.5 69.1 71.7 67.4
Age 55 and older 15,092 17,062 25,233 1,970 8,171 13.1 47.9 12.4 12.4 16.3
White 104,756 115,415 126,665 10,659 11,251 10.2 9.7 86.1 83.8 81.9
Black 13,205 15,982 19,101 2,777 3,119 21.0 19.5 10.9 11.6 12.4
Asian and other 1/ 3,708 6,278 8,809 2,570 2,531 69.3 40.3 3.0 4.6 5.7
Hispanic origin 2/ 8,982 14,317 19,585 5,335 5,268 59.4 36.8 7.4 10.4 12.7
Other than Hispanic origin 2/ 112,687 123,356 134,991 10,669 11,635 9.5 9.4 92.6 89.6 87.3
White non-Hispanic 2/ 96,141 101,767 109,216 5,626 7,449 5.9 7.3 79.0 73.9 70.7
1/ The "Asian and other" group includes (1) Asians and Pacific Islanders and (2) American Indians and Alaska Natives.
The historical data are derived by subtracting "black" from the "black and other" group; projections are made
directly, not by subtraction.
2/ Data by Hispanic origin are not available before 1980.