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Technical Information: (202) 606-5700 USDL 97-429
Media Contact: (202) 606-5902 For release: 10 A.M. EST
Wednesday, December 3, 1997
Internet: http://stats.bls.gov.emphome.htm
BLS RELEASES NEW 1996-2006 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS
New projections for the American work force from 1996 to 2006 were
issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor,
providing information on where future job growth is expected by industry
and occupation and what the demographic makeup of the work force
pursuing those jobs is likely to be.
These 10-year projections of economic growth, the labor force, and
employment by industry and occupation are widely used for studying long-
range economic and employment trends, planning education and training
programs, and developing career information.
Labor force
The supply of workers, the labor force, is projected to increase
by 15 million over the 1996-2006 period, from 134 million to 149
million. This represents an increase of 11 percent, less than the 14
percent increase over the previous 10-year period, 1986-96. (See table
1.) The projections indicate that the demographic composition of the
labor force is expected to change because the population itself will
change and because work force participation will change.
* The labor force age 45-64 will grow faster than the labor force
of any other age group as the baby-boom generation (born 1946-
64) continues to age. The labor force 25 to 34 years of age is
projected to decline by almost 3 million, reflecting the
decrease in births in the late 1960s and early 1970s.
* The labor force participation rates of women in nearly all age
groups are projected to increase, but at a more moderate rate
than in the previous 10 years, particularly among younger
women. Men�s labor force participation rates are projected to
continue to decline for all age groups under 45 years of age.
As a result, the women's labor force will grow more rapidly
than the men�s, and the women�s share of the labor force will
increase from 46 to 47 percent.
* The Asian-and-other labor force and Hispanic labor force are
projected to increase faster than other groups, 41 percent and
36 percent, respectively, because of high net immigration and
higher than average fertility. The black labor force is
expected to grow by 14 percent, faster than the 9 percent
growth rate for the white labor force.
* The Asian-and-other share of the labor force will increase from
4 to 5 percent and Hispanics from 10 to 12 percent. White non-
Hispanics accounted for 75 percent of the labor force in 1996.
Their share of the labor force in 2006 will decrease modestly
to 73 percent.
* By 2006, the black and the Hispanic labor forces will be nearly
equal in size, as more Hispanics than blacks will enter the
labor force over the 1996-2006 period.
Employment
Industry employment
* Over the 1996-2006 period, total employment is projected to
increase by 14 percent or 19 million, from 132 million in 1996
to 151 million in 2006. This growth rate is much slower than
during the previous 10-year period 1986-1996 when growth was
19 percent and the economy gained 21 million additional jobs.
(See table 2.)
* Service-producing industries will account for virtually all of
the job growth. Only construction will add jobs in the goods-
producing sector, offsetting declines in manufacturing and
mining.
* Manufacturing's share of total jobs is expected to decline, as
a decrease of 350,000 manufacturing jobs is projected.
Manufacturing is expected to maintain its share of total
output, as productivity in this sector is projected to
increase. Accounting for 14 percent of employment in 1996,
manufacturing is expected to account for just 12 percent in
2006.
* Health services, business services, social services, and
engineering, management, and related services are expected to
account for almost one of every two wage and salary worker jobs
added to the economy during the 1996-2006 period. Of the 10
fastest growing industries, nine belong to one of these four
industry groups. (See table 4a.)
Occupational employment
* Professional specialty occupations are projected to increase
the fastest and to add the most jobs--4.8 million. This group
also had the fastest rate of increase and the largest job
growth in the 1986-96 period. Service workers are expected to
add 3.9 million jobs. These two groups--on opposite ends of the
educational attainment and earnings spectrum--are expected to
provide 46 percent of total projected job growth over the 1996-
2006 period. (See table 3.)
* Other groups that are projected to grow faster than the average
are executive, administrative, and managerial occupations;
technicians and related support occupations; and marketing and
sales occupations.
* Administrative support occupations including clerical are
projected to grow much slower than the average and slower than
they have in the past, reflecting the increasing impact of
office automation. The projected growth of 1.8 million jobs
for this group is significantly less than the 3.1 million job
growth over the 1986-96 period.
* Precision production, craft, and repair occupations and
operators, fabricators, and laborers are projected to grow much
more slowly than the average due to continuing advances in
technology, changes in production methods, and the overall
decline in manufacturing employment.
* The 10 fastest growing occupations include six health-related
and four computer-related occupations. (See table 4b.)
* The 10 occupations adding the most jobs will account for more
than one-fifth of total employment growth. (See table 4c.)
Education and training
Employment will increase in occupations requiring various amounts
of education and training. Growth rates over the 1996-2006 period will
range from 7 percent for occupations generally requiring postsecondary
vocational training to 25 percent for occupations requiring a bachelor�s
degree. All categories that generally require an associate degree or
more education are projected to grow faster than the 14 percent average
of all occupations. In contrast, all other categories are expected to
grow less than 14 percent. (See table 5.)
Notes
More detailed information on the 1996-2006 projections appears in
five articles in the November 1997 issue of the Monthly Labor Review,
published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
A graphic presentation of the highlights of the projections will appear
in the forthcoming Winter 1997-98 Occupational Outlook Quarterly.
The Monthly Labor Review and Occupational Outlook Quarterly are
sold by the U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 20402.
The Review costs $29 a year; single copies are $7.50. The Quarterly
costs $9.50 a year; single copies are $4.50. Make checks payable to the
Superintendent of Documents.
Information from this release will be made available to sensory
impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-606-7828,
Telecommunications Device for the Deaf (TDD) phone: 202-606-5897, TDD
Message Referral Phone Number: 1-800-326-2577.
Table 1. Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1986, 1996, and projected 2006
[Numbers in thousands]
Level Change Percent change Percent distribution Annual growth
rate (percent)
Group 1986 1996 2006 1986-96 1996-2006 1986-96 1996-20 1986 1996 2006 1986-96 1996-2006
Total, 16 years and 117,834 133,943 148,847 16,109 14,904 13.7 11.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.3 1.1
16 to 19 7,926 7,806 8,924 -120 1,118 -1.5 14.3 6.7 5.8 6.0 -0.2 1.3
20 to 24 15,441 13,377 15,494 -2,064 2,117 -13.4 15.8 13.1 10.0 10.4 -1.4 1.5
25 to 34 34,591 33,833 30,842 -758 -2,992 -2.2 -8.8 29.4 25.3 20.7 -0.2 -0.9
35 to 44 27,232 36,556 35,455 9,324 -1,101 34.2 -3.0 23.1 27.3 23.8 3.0 -0.3
45 to 54 17,739 26,397 35,157 8,658 8,760 48.8 33.2 15.1 19.7 23.6 4.1 2.9
55 to 64 11,894 12,146 18,753 252 6,607 2.1 54.4 10.1 9.1 12.6 0.2 4.4
65 and over 3,010 3,828 4,221 818 393 27.2 10.3 2.6 2.9 2.8 2.4 1.0
Men, 16 years and over 65,422 72,087 78,226 6,665 6,139 10.2 8.5 55.5 53.8 52.6 1.0 0.8
Women, 16 years and over 52,413 61,857 70,620 9,444 8,764 18.0 14.2 44.5 46.2 47.4 1.7 1.3
White 101,801 113,108 123,581 11,307 10,473 11.1 9.3 86.4 84.4 83.0 1.1 0.9
Black, 16 years and over 12,654 15,134 17,225 2,480 2,091 19.6 13.8 10.7 11.3 11.6 1.8 1.3
Asian and other, 16 3,371 5,703 8,041 2,332 2,338 69.2 41.0 2.9 4.3 5.4 5.4 3.5
and over 1/
Hispanic origin, 16 8,076 12,774 17,401 4,698 4,627 58.2 36.2 6.9 9.5 11.7 4.7 3.1
and over
Other than Hispanic 109,758 121,169 131,446 11,411 10,276 10.4 8.5 93.1 90.5 88.3 1.0 0.8
origin, 16 and over
White non-Hispanic, 94,026 100,915 108,166 6,890 7,251 7.3 7.2 79.8 75.3 72.7 0.7 0.7
16 and over
1/ The "Asian and other" group includes (1) Asians and Pacific Islanders and (2) American Indians and Alaska Natives.
The historical data are derived by subtracting "black" from the "black and other" group; projections are made directly,
not by subtraction.
Table 2. Employment by major industry division, 1986, 1996, and projected 2006
Industry Thousands of Jobs Change Percent distribution Average annual
rate of change
1986 1996 2006 1986-96 1996-2006 1986 1996 2006 1986-96 1996-2006
Total 1/ 111,374 132,352 150,927 20,978 18,575 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.7 1.3
Nonfarm wage and salary 2/ 98,727 118,731 136,318 20,004 17,587 88.6 89.7 90.3 1.9 1.4
Goods producing 24,538 24,431 24,451 -107 20 22.0 18.5 16.2 0.0 0.0
Mining 778 574 443 -204 -131 .7 .4 .3 -3.0 -2.5
Construction 4,810 5,400 5,900 590 500 4.3 4.1 3.9 1.2 .9
Manufacturing 18,951 18,457 18,108 -493 -350 17.0 13.9 12.0 -.3 -.2
Durable 11,200 10,766 10,514 -433 -252 10.1 8.1 7.0 -.4 -.2
Nondurable 7,751 7,691 7,593 -60 -98 7.0 5.8 5.0 -.1 -.1
Service producing 74,189 94,300 111,867 20,111 17,567 66.6 71.2 74.1 2.4 1.7
Transportation, communications, 5,247 6,260 7,111 1,014 851 4.7 4.7 4.7 1.8 1.3
utilities
Wholesale trade 5,751 6,483 7,228 732 745 5.2 4.9 4.8 1.2 1.1
Retail trade 17,878 21,625 23,875 3,747 2,250 16.1 16.3 15.8 1.9 1.0
Finance, insurance, and 6,275 6,899 7,651 625 752 5.6 5.2 5.1 1.0 1.0
real estate
Services 2/ 22,346 33,586 44,852 11,240 11,266 20.1 25.4 29.7 4.2 2.9
Federal government 2,899 2,757 2,670 -142 -87 2.6 2.1 1.8 .5 .3
State and local government 13,794 16,690 18,480 2,896 1,790 12.4 12.6 12.2 1.9 1.0
Agriculture 3/ 3,327 3,642 3,618 314 -24 3.0 2.8 2.4 .9 -.1
Private household wage and salary 1,235 928 775 -307 -153 1.1 .7 .5 -2.8 -1.8
Nonagricultural self-employed 8,085 9,051 10,216 966 1,165 7.3 6.8 6.8 1.1 1.2
1/ Employment data for wage and salary workers are from the BLS Current Employment Statistics (payroll) survey, which counts jobs, whereas
self-employed, unpaid family worker, agricultural, and private household data are from the Current PopulationSurvey (household
survey), which counts workers.
2/ Excludes SIC 074,5,8 (agricultural services) and 99 (nonclassifiable establishments), and is therefore not directly comparable with
data published in Employment and Earnings
3/ Excludes government wage and salary workers, and includes private sector SIC 08, 09 (forestry and fisheries).
4/ Excludes SIC 08, 09 (forestry and fisheries).
Table 3. Employment by major occupational group, 1986, 1996, and projected 2006
(Numbers in thousands of jobs)
Employment Change
Occupational group Number Percent distribution Number Percent
1986 1996 2006 1986 1996 2006 1986-96 1996-2001986-96 1996-2006
Total, all occupations 111,375 132,353 150,927 100.0 100.0 100.0 20,978 18,574 18.8 14.0
Executive, administrative, and managerial 10,568 13,542 15,866 9.5 10.2 10.5 2,974 2,324 28.1 17.2
Professional specialty 13,589 18,173 22,998 12.2 13.7 15.2 4,584 4,826 33.7 26.6
Technicians and related support 3,724 4,618 5,558 3.3 3.5 3.7 894 940 24.0 20.4
Marketing and sales 11,496 14,633 16,897 10.3 11.1 11.2 3,137 2,264 27.3 15.5
Administrative support, including 20,871 24,019 25,825 18.7 18.1 17.1 3,147 1,806 15.1 7.5
clerical
Service 17,427 21,294 25,147 15.6 16.1 16.7 3,867 3,853 22.2 18.1
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and 3,661 3,785 3,823 3.3 2.9 2.5 124 37 3.4 1.0
related
Precision production, craft, and repair 13,832 14,446 15,448 12.4 10.9 10.2 614 1,002 4.4 6.9
Operators, fabricators, and laborers 16,206 17,843 19,365 14.6 13.5 12.8 1,637 1,522 10.1 8.5
Table 4a. The 10 Industries with the Fastest Employment Growth, 1996-2006
(Numbers in thousands of jobs)
Employment Change, 1994-2006
Industry description 1996 2006 Number Percent
Computer and data processing services 1,208 2,509 1,301 108
Health services, nec. 1,172 1,968 796 68
Management and public relations 873 1,400 527 60
Miscellaneous transportation services 204 327 123 60
Residential care 672 1,070 398 59
Personnel supply services 2,646 4,039 1,393 53
Water and sanitation 231 349 118 51
Individual and miscellaneous social services 846 1,266 420 50
Offices of health practitioners 2,751 4,046 1,295 47
Amusement and recreation services, nec. 1,109 1,565 457 41
Table 4b. The 10 Occupations with the fastest employment growth, 1996-2006
(Numbers in thousands of jobs)
Employment Change
Occupation
1996 2006 Number Percent
Database administrators, computer support specialists, and all 212 461 249 118
other computer scientists
Computer engineers 216 451 235 109
Systems analysts 506 1,025 520 103
Personal and home care aides 202 374 171 85
Physical and corrective therapy assistants and aides 84 151 66 79
Home health aides 495 873 378 76
Medical assistants 225 391 166 74
Desktop publishing specialists 30 53 22 74
Physical therapists 115 196 81 71
Occupational therapy assistants and aides 16 26 11 69
Table 4c. The 10 occupations with the largest job growth, 1996-2006
(Numbers in thousands of jobs)
Employment Change
Occupation
1996 2006 Number Percent
Cashiers 3,146 3,677 530 17
Systems analysts 506 1,025 520 103
General managers and top executives 3,210 3,677 467 15
Registered nurses 1,971 2,382 411 21
Salespersons, retail 4,072 4,481 408 10
Truck drivers light and heavy 2,719 3,123 404 15
Home health aides 495 873 378 76
Teacher aides and educational assistants 981 1,352 370 38
Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 1,312 1,645 333 25
Receptionists and information clerks 1,074 1,392 318 30
Table 5. Employment and total job openings, 1996-2006, and 1996 median weekly earnings by education and training category
(Numbers in thousands of jobs)
Total job openings 1996
Employment Change due to growth and net median
replacements, 1996-2006 1/ weekly
earnings
Education and training category Number Percent distribution full-time
Number Percent Number Percent workers
1996 2006 1996 2006
Total, all occupations 132,353 150,927 100.0 100.0 18,574 14.0 50,563 100.0 $483
First professional degree 1,707 2,015 1.3 1.3 308 18.0 582 1.2 1,057
Doctoral degree 1,016 1,209 0.8 0.8 193 19.0 460 0.9 847
Master's degree 1,371 1,577 1.0 1.0 206 15.0 430 0.9 682
Work experience plus bachelor's or higher degree 8,971 10,568 6.8 7.0 1,597 17.8 3,481 6.9 786
Bachelor's degree 15,821 19,838 12.0 13.1 4,017 25.4 7,343 14.5 686
Associate's degree 4,122 5,036 3.1 3.3 915 22.2 1,614 3.2 639
Postsecondary vocational training 8,091 8,689 6.1 5.8 598 7.4 2,329 4.6 444
Work experience in a related occupation 9,966 11,177 7.5 7.4 1,211 12.2 3,285 6.5 534
Long-term on-the-job training 12,373 13,497 9.3 8.9 1,125 9.1 3,988 7.9 490
Moderate-term on-the-job training 16,792 18,260 12.7 12.1 1,468 8.7 5,628 11.1 434
Short-term on-the-job training 52,125 59,062 39.4 39.1 6,937 13.3 21,422 42.4 337
1/ Total job openings represent the sum of employment increases and net replacements. If employment change is negative, job openings due to growth
are zero and total job openings equal net replacements.
Changes from past procedures used to develop projections
Projection period. Over the past four decades, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has developed projections in
which the target year always ended in a zero or five and the projection period never was fewer than 10
years or more than 15 years. Two or three projections were made to each target year, because a new set of
projections was developed every other year. This procedure caused some confusion with users about
which set of projections was the proper set to use. In addition, concerns were raised about the validity of
projections that were for a period longer than 10 years. To address these concerns, the BLS has changed its
procedure and will develop 10-year projections beginning with the 1996-2006 projections. The next set of
projections scheduled to be issued in November 1999 will cover the 1998-2008 period.
Alternatives. Since the early 1980s, three alternative scenarios, low-growth, moderate- or base case, and
high-growth, were developed for each major segment of the projections�labor force, aggregate economic
growth, industry employment, and occupational employment. In developing the three scenarios, most of
the analytical effort was devoted to the preparation of the moderate (base case) alternative. The low-
growth and high-growth scenarios were based on modest changes in labor force growth using different
assumptions about immigration and labor force participation rates and modest changes in gross domestic
product growth based on different assumptions for a few economic variables, such as defense expenditures,
exports, or imports. In translating these assumptions into industry employment and occupational
employment projections, no changes were made to significant factors that could affect industry and
occupational employment, such as input-output coefficients and projected occupational staffing patterns of
industries.
In general, users of the projections only considered the moderate (base case) scenario projections of
industry employment and occupational employment. The BLS, itself, in using the occupational
employment projections to develop career guidance information in the widely used Occupational Outlook
Handbook, only used the moderate scenario. However, those who used the low-growth and high-growth
projections often assumed that the difference between those two scenarios represented a range within
which the BLS expected the employment projection to fall. That assumption was not true, as the
procedures used to develop those alternative scenarios were not intended for that purpose. To avoid such
misinterpretations, no alternative projections were developed for the 1996-2006 projections.