The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
Technical Information: (202) 606-5700 Media Contact: (202) 606-5902 USDL 97-429 For release: 10 A.M. EST Wednesday, December 3, 1997 Internet: http://stats.bls.gov.emphome.htm BLS RELEASES NEW 1996-2006 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS New projections for the American work force from 1996 to 2006 were issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, providing information on where future job growth is expected by industry and occupation and what the demographic makeup of the work force pursuing those jobs is likely to be. These 10-year projections of economic growth, the labor force, and employment by industry and occupation are widely used for studying longrange economic and employment trends, planning education and training programs, and developing career information. Labor force The supply of workers, the labor force, is projected to increase by 15 million over the 1996-2006 period, from 134 million to 149 million. This represents an increase of 11 percent, less than the 14 percent increase over the previous 10-year period, 1986-96. 1.) (See table The projections indicate that the demographic composition of the labor force is expected to change because the population itself will change and because work force participation will change. * The labor force age 45-64 will grow faster than the labor force of any other age group as the baby-boom generation (born 194664) continues to age. The labor force 25 to 34 years of age is projected to decline by almost 3 million, reflecting the decrease in births in the late 1960s and early 1970s. * The labor force participation rates of women in nearly all age groups are projected to increase, but at a more moderate rate than in the previous 10 years, particularly among younger women. Men’s labor force participation rates are projected to continue to decline for all age groups under 45 years of age. As a result, the women's labor force will grow more rapidly than the men’s, and the women’s share of the labor force will increase from 46 to 47 percent. * The Asian-and-other labor force and Hispanic labor force are projected to increase faster than other groups, 41 percent and 36 percent, respectively, because of high net immigration and higher than average fertility. The black labor force is expected to grow by 14 percent, faster than the 9 percent growth rate for the white labor force. * The Asian-and-other share of the labor force will increase from 4 to 5 percent and Hispanics from 10 to 12 percent. White non- Hispanics accounted for 75 percent of the labor force in 1996. Their share of the labor force in 2006 will decrease modestly to 73 percent. * By 2006, the black and the Hispanic labor forces will be nearly equal in size, as more Hispanics than blacks will enter the labor force over the 1996-2006 period. Employment Industry employment * Over the 1996-2006 period, total employment is projected to increase by 14 percent or 19 million, from 132 million in 1996 to 151 million in 2006. This growth rate is much slower than during the previous 10-year period 1986-1996 when growth was 19 percent and the economy gained 21 million additional jobs. (See table 2.) * Service-producing industries will account for virtually all of the job growth. Only construction will add jobs in the goods- producing sector, offsetting declines in manufacturing and mining. * Manufacturing's share of total jobs is expected to decline, as a decrease of 350,000 manufacturing jobs is projected. Manufacturing is expected to maintain its share of total output, as productivity in this sector is projected to increase. Accounting for 14 percent of employment in 1996, manufacturing is expected to account for just 12 percent in 2006. * Health services, business services, social services, and engineering, management, and related services are expected to account for almost one of every two wage and salary worker jobs added to the economy during the 1996-2006 period. Of the 10 fastest growing industries, nine belong to one of these four industry groups. (See table 4a.) Occupational employment * Professional specialty occupations are projected to increase the fastest and to add the most jobs--4.8 million. This group also had the fastest rate of increase and the largest job growth in the 1986-96 period. add 3.9 million jobs. Service workers are expected to These two groups--on opposite ends of the educational attainment and earnings spectrum--are expected to provide 46 percent of total projected job growth over the 19962006 period. * (See table 3.) Other groups that are projected to grow faster than the average are executive, administrative, and managerial occupations; technicians and related support occupations; and marketing and sales occupations. * Administrative support occupations including clerical are projected to grow much slower than the average and slower than they have in the past, reflecting the increasing impact of office automation. The projected growth of 1.8 million jobs for this group is significantly less than the 3.1 million job growth over the 1986-96 period. * Precision production, craft, and repair occupations and operators, fabricators, and laborers are projected to grow much more slowly than the average due to continuing advances in technology, changes in production methods, and the overall decline in manufacturing employment. * The 10 fastest growing occupations include six health-related and four computer-related occupations. * (See table 4b.) The 10 occupations adding the most jobs will account for more than one-fifth of total employment growth. (See table 4c.) Education and training Employment will increase in occupations requiring various amounts of education and training. Growth rates over the 1996-2006 period will range from 7 percent for occupations generally requiring postsecondary vocational training to 25 percent for occupations requiring a bachelor’s degree. All categories that generally require an associate degree or more education are projected to grow faster than the 14 percent average of all occupations. In contrast, all other categories are expected to grow less than 14 percent. (See table 5.) Notes More detailed information on the 1996-2006 projections appears in five articles in the November 1997 issue of the Monthly Labor Review, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. A graphic presentation of the highlights of the projections will appear in the forthcoming Winter 1997-98 Occupational Outlook Quarterly. The Monthly Labor Review and Occupational Outlook Quarterly are sold by the U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 20402. The Review costs $29 a year; single copies are $7.50. costs $9.50 a year; single copies are $4.50. The Quarterly Make checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents. Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-606-7828, Telecommunications Device for the Deaf (TDD) phone: 202-606-5897, TDD Message Referral Phone Number: 1-800-326-2577. Table 1. Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1986, 1996, and projected 2006 [Numbers in thousands] Level Change Percent change Percent distribution Annual growth rate (percent) Group 1986 1996 Total, 16 years and 117,834 133,943 2006 1986-96 1996-2006 1986-96 1996-20 148,847 16,109 14,904 13.7 11.1 1986 1996 100.0 100.0 2006 1986-96 1996-2006 100.0 1.3 1.1 16 to 19 7,926 7,806 20 to 24 15,441 25 to 34 -120 1,118 -1.5 14.3 6.7 5.8 6.0 -0.2 1.3 13,377 15,494 -2,064 2,117 -13.4 15.8 13.1 10.0 10.4 -1.4 1.5 34,591 33,833 30,842 -758 -2,992 -2.2 -8.8 29.4 25.3 20.7 -0.2 -0.9 35 to 44 27,232 36,556 35,455 9,324 -1,101 34.2 -3.0 23.1 27.3 23.8 3.0 -0.3 45 to 54 17,739 26,397 35,157 8,658 8,760 48.8 33.2 15.1 19.7 23.6 4.1 2.9 55 to 64 11,894 12,146 18,753 252 6,607 2.1 54.4 10.1 9.1 12.6 0.2 4.4 3,010 3,828 4,221 818 393 27.2 10.3 2.6 2.9 2.8 2.4 1.0 Men, 16 years and over 65,422 72,087 78,226 6,665 6,139 10.2 8.5 55.5 53.8 52.6 1.0 0.8 Women, 16 years and over 52,413 61,857 70,620 9,444 8,764 18.0 14.2 44.5 46.2 47.4 1.7 1.3 101,801 113,108 123,581 11,307 10,473 11.1 9.3 86.4 84.4 83.0 1.1 0.9 12,654 15,134 17,225 2,480 2,091 19.6 13.8 10.7 11.3 11.6 1.8 1.3 3,371 5,703 8,041 2,332 2,338 69.2 41.0 2.9 4.3 5.4 5.4 3.5 8,076 12,774 17,401 4,698 4,627 58.2 36.2 6.9 9.5 11.7 4.7 3.1 109,758 121,169 131,446 11,411 10,276 10.4 8.5 93.1 90.5 88.3 1.0 0.8 94,026 100,915 108,166 7,251 7.3 7.2 79.8 75.3 72.7 0.7 0.7 65 and over White Black, 16 years and over Asian and other, 16 8,924 and over 1/ Hispanic origin, 16 and over Other than Hispanic origin, 16 and over White non-Hispanic, 6,890 16 and over 1/ The "Asian and other" group includes (1) Asians and Pacific Islanders and (2) American Indians and Alaska Natives. The historical data are derived by subtracting "black" from the "black and other" group; projections are made directly, not by subtraction. Table 2. Employment by major industry division, 1986, 1996, and projected 2006 Industry Thousands of Jobs Change Percent distribution Average annual rate of change 1986 1986-96 1996-2006 1986 1996 2006 111,374 132,352 150,927 20,978 18,575 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.7 1.3 98,727 118,731 136,318 20,004 17,587 88.6 89.7 90.3 1.9 1.4 Total 1/ Nonfarm wage and salary 2/ Goods producing 1996 2006 1986-96 1996-2006 24,538 24,431 24,451 -107 20 22.0 18.5 16.2 0.0 0.0 778 574 443 -204 -131 .7 .4 .3 -3.0 -2.5 4,810 5,400 5,900 590 500 4.3 4.1 3.9 1.2 .9 18,951 18,457 18,108 -493 -350 17.0 13.9 12.0 -.3 -.2 Durable 11,200 10,766 10,514 -433 -252 10.1 8.1 7.0 -.4 -.2 Nondurable 7,751 7,691 7,593 -60 -98 7.0 5.8 5.0 -.1 -.1 Service producing 74,189 94,300 111,867 20,111 17,567 66.6 71.2 74.1 2.4 1.7 Mining Construction Manufacturing Transportation, communications, 5,247 6,260 7,111 1,014 851 4.7 4.7 4.7 1.8 1.3 5,751 6,483 7,228 732 745 5.2 4.9 4.8 1.2 1.1 utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade 17,878 21,625 23,875 3,747 2,250 16.1 16.3 15.8 1.9 1.0 6,275 6,899 7,651 625 752 5.6 5.2 5.1 1.0 1.0 22,346 33,586 44,852 11,240 11,266 20.1 25.4 29.7 4.2 2.9 2,899 2,757 2,670 -142 -87 2.6 2.1 1.8 .5 .3 13,794 16,690 18,480 2,896 1,790 12.4 12.6 12.2 1.9 1.0 Agriculture 3/ 3,327 3,642 3,618 314 -24 3.0 2.8 2.4 .9 -.1 Private household wage and salary 1,235 928 775 -307 -153 1.1 .7 .5 -2.8 -1.8 Nonagricultural self-employed 8,085 9,051 10,216 966 1,165 7.3 6.8 6.8 1.1 1.2 Finance, insurance, and real estate Services 2/ Federal government State and local government 1/ Employment data for wage and salary workers are from the BLS Current Employment Statistics (payroll) survey, which counts jobs, whereas self-employed, unpaid family worker, agricultural, and private household data are from the Current PopulationSurvey (household survey), which counts workers. 2/ Excludes SIC 074,5,8 (agricultural services) and 99 (nonclassifiable establishments), and is therefore not directly comparable with data published in Employment and Earnings 3/ Excludes government wage and salary workers, and includes private sector SIC 08, 09 (forestry and fisheries). 4/ Excludes SIC 08, 09 (forestry and fisheries). Table 3. Employment by major occupational group, 1986, 1996, and projected 2006 (Numbers in thousands of jobs) Employment Occupational group Number 1986 Total, all occupations 1996 Change Percent distribution 2006 111,375 132,353 150,927 1986 1996 Number 2006 Percent 1986-96 1996-2001986-96 1996-2006 100.0 100.0 100.0 20,978 18,574 18.8 14.0 Executive, administrative, and managerial 10,568 13,542 15,866 9.5 10.2 10.5 2,974 2,324 28.1 17.2 Professional specialty 13,589 18,173 22,998 12.2 13.7 15.2 4,584 4,826 33.7 26.6 3,724 4,618 5,558 3.3 3.5 3.7 894 940 24.0 20.4 Marketing and sales 11,496 14,633 16,897 10.3 11.1 11.2 3,137 2,264 27.3 15.5 Administrative support, including 20,871 24,019 25,825 18.7 18.1 17.1 3,147 1,806 15.1 7.5 17,427 21,294 25,147 15.6 16.1 16.7 3,867 3,853 22.2 18.1 3,661 3,785 3,823 3.3 2.9 2.5 124 37 3.4 1.0 Precision production, craft, and repair 13,832 14,446 15,448 12.4 10.9 10.2 614 1,002 4.4 6.9 Operators, fabricators, and laborers 16,206 17,843 19,365 14.6 13.5 12.8 1,637 1,522 10.1 8.5 Technicians and related support clerical Service Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and related Table 4a. The 10 Industries with the Fastest Employment Growth, 1996-2006 (Numbers in thousands of jobs) Employment Industry description Change, 1994-2006 1996 2006 Computer and data processing services 1,208 2,509 1,301 108 Health services, nec. 1,172 1,968 796 68 Management and public relations 873 1,400 527 60 Miscellaneous transportation services 204 327 123 60 Residential care 672 1,070 398 59 2,646 4,039 1,393 53 Water and sanitation 231 349 118 51 Individual and miscellaneous social services 846 1,266 420 50 Offices of health practitioners 2,751 4,046 1,295 47 Amusement and recreation services, nec. 1,109 1,565 457 41 Personnel supply services Table 4b. Number Percent The 10 Occupations with the fastest employment growth, 1996-2006 (Numbers in thousands of jobs) Employment Change Occupation Database administrators, computer support specialists, and all other computer scientists 1996 2006 212 461 Number Percent 249 118 Computer engineers 216 451 235 109 Systems analysts 506 1,025 520 103 Personal and home care aides 202 374 171 85 84 151 66 79 Home health aides 495 873 378 76 Medical assistants 225 391 166 74 30 53 22 74 115 196 81 71 16 26 11 69 Physical and corrective therapy assistants and aides Desktop publishing specialists Physical therapists Occupational therapy assistants and aides Table 4c. The 10 occupations with the largest job growth, 1996-2006 (Numbers in thousands of jobs) Employment Change Occupation 1996 2006 3,146 3,677 530 17 506 1,025 520 103 General managers and top executives 3,210 3,677 467 15 Registered nurses 1,971 2,382 411 21 Salespersons, retail 4,072 4,481 408 10 Truck drivers light and heavy 2,719 3,123 404 15 495 873 378 76 Cashiers Systems analysts Home health aides Number Percent Teacher aides and educational assistants 981 1,352 370 38 Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 1,312 1,645 333 25 Receptionists and information clerks 1,074 1,392 318 30 Table 5. Employment and total job openings, 1996-2006, and 1996 median weekly earnings by education and training category (Numbers in thousands of jobs) Total job openings 1996 Employment net Change due to growth and median replacements, 1996-2006 1/ weekly earnings Education and training category Number Percent distribution full-time Number Percent Number Percent workers 1996 2006 1996 2006 132,353 150,927 100.0 100.0 18,574 14.0 50,563 100.0 First professional degree 1,057 1,707 2,015 1.3 1.3 308 18.0 582 1.2 Doctoral degree 847 1,016 1,209 0.8 0.8 193 19.0 460 0.9 Master's degree 1,371 1,577 1.0 1.0 206 15.0 430 0.9 Total, all occupations $483 682 Work experience plus bachelor's or higher degree 786 8,971 10,568 6.8 7.0 1,597 17.8 3,481 6.9 Bachelor's degree 686 15,821 19,838 12.0 13.1 4,017 25.4 7,343 14.5 Associate's degree 639 4,122 5,036 3.1 3.3 915 22.2 1,614 3.2 Postsecondary vocational training 444 8,091 8,689 6.1 5.8 598 7.4 2,329 4.6 Work experience in a related occupation 534 9,966 11,177 7.5 7.4 1,211 12.2 3,285 6.5 Long-term on-the-job training 490 12,373 13,497 9.3 8.9 1,125 9.1 3,988 7.9 Moderate-term on-the-job training 434 16,792 18,260 12.7 12.1 1,468 8.7 5,628 11.1 Short-term on-the-job training 337 52,125 59,062 39.4 39.1 6,937 13.3 21,422 42.4 1/ Total job openings represent the sum of employment increases and net replacements. openings due to growth If employment change is negative, job are zero and total job openings equal net replacements. Changes from past procedures used to develop projections Projection period. Over the past four decades, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has developed projections in which the target year always ended in a zero or five and the projection period never was fewer than 10 years or more than 15 years. Two or three projections were made to each target year, because a new set of projections was developed every other year. This procedure caused some confusion with users about which set of projections was the proper set to use. In addition, concerns were raised about the validity of projections that were for a period longer than 10 years. To address these concerns, the BLS has changed its procedure and will develop 10-year projections beginning with the 1996-2006 projections. The next set of projections scheduled to be issued in November 1999 will cover the 1998-2008 period. Alternatives. Since the early 1980s, three alternative scenarios, low-growth, moderate- or base case, and high-growth, were developed for each major segment of the projections—labor force, aggregate economic growth, industry employment, and occupational employment. In developing the three scenarios, most of the analytical effort was devoted to the preparation of the moderate (base case) alternative. The low- growth and high-growth scenarios were based on modest changes in labor force growth using different assumptions about immigration and labor force participation rates and modest changes in gross domestic product growth based on different assumptions for a few economic variables, such as defense expenditures, exports, or imports. In translating these assumptions into industry employment and occupational employment projections, no changes were made to significant factors that could affect industry and occupational employment, such as input-output coefficients and projected occupational staffing patterns of industries. In general, users of the projections only considered the moderate (base case) scenario projections of industry employment and occupational employment. The BLS, itself, in using the occupational employment projections to develop career guidance information in the widely used Occupational Outlook Handbook, only used the moderate scenario. However, those who used the low-growth and high-growth projections often assumed that the difference between those two scenarios represented a range within which the BLS expected the employment projection to fall. That assumption was not true, as the procedures used to develop those alternative scenarios were not intended for that purpose. To avoid such misinterpretations, no alternative projections were developed for the 1996-2006 projections.