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TEXT Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table 1. 2. 3. 4. 5A. 5B. 5C. 6. Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1982, 1993 and 1994, and moderate alternative Civilian labor force, 1982, 1993, and 1994, and projected 2005, and entrants and leavers, Employment by major industry division, 1983, 1994, and projected to 2005 Employment by major occupational group, 1983, 1994, and projected 2005, moderate alternative projection The 10 industries with fastest projected job growth, 1994-2005, moderate alternative projection The 10 fastest growing occupations, 1994-2005, moderate alternative projection The 10 occupations with the largest job growth, 1994-2005, moderate alternative projection Projected change in employment by education and training category, 1994-2005, moderate alternative projection Technical Information: (202) 606-5700 USDL:95-485 Media Contact: (202) 606-5902 For release: 10 A.M. EST Friday, December 1, 1995 BLS RELEASES NEW 1994-2005 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS New projections for the American work force from 1994 to 2005 were released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, providing information on where future job growth is expected by industry and occupation and what the demographic makeup of the work force pursuing those jobs is likely to be. These projections to 2005 of economic growth, the labor force, and employment by industry and occupation are widely used for studying long-range economic and employment trends, planning education and training programs, and developing career information. BLS develops three alternative sets of projections because of the uncertainty inherent in the future. Changes in the structure of the economy and in the demand for goods and services for a low, a moderate, and a high growth pattern for Gross Domestic Product are included. This release uses the moderate growth projection in which personal consumption expenditures will continue to account for about two-thirds of GDP and in which foreign trade is projected to continue to increase faster than other demand components. Labor force The future supply of workers, the labor force, is projected to increase by 16 million over the 1994-2005 period, from 131 million to 147 million. This represents an increase of 12 percent, less than the 16 percent increase over the previous 11-year period, 1982-93. (See table 1 and its note concerning comparability of 1993 and 1994 labor force data.) 39.3 million workers are expected to enter the labor force over the 1994-2005 period, more than the 37 million that entered over the 1982-93 period (table 2). 23.3 million of the entrants will replace workers who leave the labor force because of death, retirement, and other reasons. 16.0 million will reflect net labor force growth. The demographic composition of the labor force is expected to change because the population itself will change and because work force participation will change. White non-Hispanics, who accounted for 77 percent of the labor force in 1994, are expected to account for two-thirds of the entrants into the work force over the 1994-2005 period; thus, their share of the labor force in 2005 will decrease modestly. By 2005, the black non-Hispanic and the Hispanic labor forces will be nearly equal in size, as more Hispanics than blacks will enter the labor force over the 1994-2005 period. The women's labor force will grow more rapidly than the men's; the women's share of the labor force will increase from 46 to 48 percent. Despite this, men will supply slightly over half of the labor force entrants over the 1994-2005 period. The labor force 55 years of age and older will grow faster than the younger labor force as the baby-boom generation (born 1946-64) continues to age. The labor force 25 to 34 years of age is projected to decline by almost 4 million, reflecting the decrease in births in the late 1960s and early 1970s. The labor force participation rates of women are projected to increase, but at a more moderate rate than in the previous 11 years, particularly among younger women. Men's labor force participation rates are projected to continue to decline across all age groups. Employment Industry Employment Over the 1994-2005 period, total employment is projected to increase by 14 percent or by 17.7 million, from 127.0 million in 1994 to 144.7 million in 2005. This growth rate is much slower than during the previous 11-year period 1983-1994 when growth was 24 percent and the economy gained 24.6 million additional jobs (table 3). Service-producing industries will account for virtually all of the job growth. Only construction will add jobs in the goods-producing sector. Manufacturing's share of total jobs is expected to decline, as of 1.3 million manufacturing jobs is projected. Manufacturing to maintain its share of total output, as productivity in this projected to increase. Accounting for one of every seven jobs manufacturing is expected to account for just less than one of jobs in 2005. a decrease is expected sector is in 1994, every eight Health services, business services, and social services are expected to account for almost one of every two jobs added to the economy during the 1994-2005 period. Of the 10 fastest growing industries, nine belong to one of these three industry groups (table 5a). Occupational employment Professional specialty occupations are projected to increase the fastest and to add the most jobs--over 5 million. This group also had the fastest rate of increase and the largest job growth in the 1983-94 period. Service workers are expected to add 4.6 million jobs. These two groups--on opposite ends of the educational attainment and earnings spectrum--are expected to provide more than half of the total projected job growth in 1994-2005 (table 4). Other groups that are projected to grow faster than the average are executive, administrative, and managerial occupations; technicians and related support occupations; and marketing and sales occupations. Administrative support occupations including clerical are projected to grow much slower than the average and much slower than they have in the past, reflecting the increasing impact of office automation. The projected growth of 994,000 jobs for this group is significantly less than the 4.3 million job growth during 1983-94. Precision production, craft, and repair occupations and operators, fabricators, and laborers are projected to grow much more slowly than the average due to continuing advances in technology, changes in production methods, and the overall decline in manufacturing employment. The 10 fastest growing occupations include workers at all levels of educational attainment; half are health-related occupations (table 5b). The 10 occupations adding the most jobs will account for more than one-fourth of total employment growth (table 5c). Education and Training Employment will increase in occupations requiring various amounts of education and training. Growth rates over the 1994-2005 period will range from 5 percent for occupations generally requiring moderate term on-the-job training to 29 percent for occupations requiring a master's degree. All categories that generally require an associate degree or more education are projected to grow faster than the 14 percent average of all occupations. In contrast, all other categories are expected to grow less than 14 percent. Occupations that generally require moderate term (1 to 12 months) on the job training for a worker to achieve average job performance are projected to grow the slowest, reflecting the concentration of many production occupations in declining manufacturing industries (table 6). More detailed information on the 1994-2005 projections appears in five articles in the November 1995 issue of the Monthly Labor Review, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. A graphic presentation of the highlights of the projections will appear in the forthcoming Fall 1995 Occupational Outlook Quarterly. Data on education and training will be published in "Employment Outlook: 1994-2005, Job Quality and Other Aspects of Projected Employment Growth," BLS Bulletin 2472. The Monthly Labor Review and Occupational Outlook Quarterly are sold by the U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. The Review costs $25 a year, single copies are $7. The Quarterly costs $8 a year; single copies are $2.75. Make checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents. Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-606-7828, Telecommunications Device for the Deaf (TDD) phone: 202-606-5897, TDD Message Referral Phone Number: 1-800-326-2577. Table 1. Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1982, 1993 and 1994, and moderate alternative projection to 2005 [Numbers in thousands] Level Change Percent change Percent distribution Group 1982 1993 1994 2005 1982-93 1994-2005 1982-93 1994-2005 1982 1994 2005 Total, 16 years and older Men, 16 years and older 110,204 128,040 131,056 147,106 17,836 16,050 16.2 12.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 62,450 69,633 70,817 76,842 7,183 6,025 11.5 8.5 56.7 54.0 52.2 Women, 16 years and older 47,755 58,407 60,239 70,263 10,652 10,024 22.3 16.6 43.3 46.0 47.8 16 to 24 25 to 54 55 and older 24,608 70,506 15,092 20,383 92,271 15,386 21,612 93,898 15,547 23,984 101,017 22,105 -4,225 21,765 294 2,372 7,119 6,558 -17.2 30.9 1.9 11.0 7.6 42.2 22.3 64.0 13.7 16.5 71.6 11.9 16.3 68.7 15.0 White, 16 years and older Black, 16 years and older Asian and other, 16 years and older/1 96,143 11,331 109,359 13,943 111,082 14,502 122,867 16,619 13,216 2,612 11,785 2,116 13.7 23.1 10.6 14.6 87.2 10.3 84.8 11.1 83.5 11.3 2,729 4,742 5,474 7,632 2,013 2,158 73.8 39.4 2.5 4.2 5.2 Hispanic, 16 years and older 6,734 10,377 11,975 16,330 3,643 4,355 54.1 36.4 6.1 9.1 11.1 Other than Hispanic, 16 years and older 103,470 117,663 119,081 130,775 14,193 11,694 13.7 9.8 93.9 90.9 88.9 White, non-Hispanic 89,630 99,499 100,462 108,345 9,869 7,883 11.0 7.8 81.3 76.7 73.7 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Note: Data for 1994 are not directly comparable with data for 1993 and 1982 because of the introduction of a major redesign of the Current Population Survey questionaire and collection methodology and the introduction of 1990 census-based population controls, adjusted for the estimated undercount. /1 The "Asian and other" group includes (1) Asians and Pacific Islanders and (2) American Indians and Alaska Natives. The historical data are derived by subtracting "black" from the "black and other" group; projections are made directly, not by subtraction. Table 2. Civilian labor force, 1982, 1993, and 1994, and projected 2005, and entrants and leavers, actual 1982-93 and projected 1994-2005 Labor Entrants Leavers Labor force Entrants Leavers Labor force force Group 1982 1982-93 1982-93 1993 1994 1994-2005 1994-2005 2005 Numbers [thousands] Total 110,215 62,460 47,755 37,309 19,275 18,034 19,485 12,104 7,381 128,039 69,632 58,407 131,051 70,814 60,238 39,343 19,720 19,624 23,289 13,691 9,598 147,106 76,842 70,263 White, non-Hispanic Men Women 89,536 51,086 38,450 26,405 13,447 12,958 16,440 10,288 6,152 99,502 54,246 45,256 100,463 54,306 46,157 26,058 12,937 13,122 18,177 10,814 7,363 108,345 56,429 51,916 Black, non-Hispanic Men Women 11,230 5,744 5,486 4,952 2,403 2,549 1,905 1,079 826 14,277 7,068 7,209 14,304 6,981 7,323 4,871 2,314 2,557 2,783 1,512 1,271 16,392 7,783 8,609 6,734 4,148 2,586 4,437 2,654 1,784 794 545 250 10,377 6,257 4,120 11,974 7,210 4,764 6,085 3,321 2,765 1,729 1,039 690 16,330 9,492 6,838 Men Women Hispanic origin Men Women Asian and other, non-Hispanic/1 Men Women 2,714 1,481 1,233 1,515 772 743 345 192 153 3,883 2,061 1,822 4,310 2,317 1,994 2,329 1,148 1,180 600 326 274 6,039 3,139 2,900 100.0 56.7 43.3 100.0 51.7 48.3 100.0 62.1 37.9 100.0 54.4 45.6 100.0 54.0 46.0 100.0 50.1 49.9 100.0 58.8 41.2 100.0 52.2 47.8 White, non-Hispanic Men Women 81.2 46.4 34.9 70.8 36.0 34.7 84.4 52.8 31.6 77.7 42.4 35.3 76.7 41.4 35.2 66.2 32.9 33.4 78.0 46.4 31.6 73.7 38.4 35.3 Black, non-Hispanic Men Women 10.2 5.2 5.0 13.3 6.4 6.8 9.8 5.5 4.2 11.2 5.5 5.6 10.9 5.3 5.6 12.4 5.9 6.5 12.0 6.5 5.5 11.1 5.3 5.9 4.1 2.8 1.3 8.1 4.9 3.2 9.1 5.5 3.6 15.5 8.4 7.0 7.4 4.5 3.0 11.1 6.5 4.6 Share [percent] Total Men Women Hispanic origin Men Women 6.1 3.8 2.3 11.9 7.1 4.8 Asian and other, non-Hispanic/1 2.5 4.1 1.8 3.0 3.3 5.9 2.6 4.1 Men 1.3 2.1 1.0 1.6 1.8 2.9 1.4 2.1 Women 1.1 2.0 .8 1.4 1.5 3.0 1.2 2.0 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ Note: Data for 1994 are not directly comparable with data for 1993 and 1982 because of the introduction of a major redesign of the Current Population Survey questionaire and collection methodology and the introduction of 1990 census-based population controls. Entrants and leavers are calculated by comparing cohort labor force size at two points in time. The components of this table are mutually exclusive. /1 The "Asian and other" group includes (1) Asians and Pacific Islanders and (2) American Indians and Alaska Natives. Table 3. Employment by major industry division, 1983, 1994, and projected to 2005 Industry Employment (in thousands) 1983 1994 2005 Low Moderate High Nonfarm wage and salary /1 89,734 113,340 125,631 130,185 135,729 Goods producing 23,328 23,914 21,860 22,930 24,475 Mining 952 601 450 439 509 Construction 3,946 5,010 5,193 5,500 5,966 Manufacturing 18,430 18,304 16,218 16,991 18,000 1983-94 23,605 587 -351 1,064 -126 Change 1994-2005 Low Moderate 12,291 16,846 -2,054 -985 -150 -162 183 490 -2,086 -1,313 High 22,390 561 -91 956 -304 Durable Nondurable Service producing Transportation, communications, utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Finance, insurance, and real estate Services /1 Government Agriculture /2 Private household wage and salary Nonagricultural self-employed and unpaid family workers /3 Total /4 Nonfarm wage and salary /1 Goods producing Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Nondurable 10,431 7,873 8,803 7,415 9,290 7,700 10,045 7,955 -275 149 -1,628 -458 -1,141 -172 -386 82 66,407 4,958 5,283 15,587 5,466 19,242 15,870 89,425 6,006 6,140 20,438 6,933 30,792 19,117 103,771 6,145 6,389 22,781 7,076 42,072 19,307 107,256 6,431 6,559 23,094 7,373 42,810 20,990 111,254 6,723 6,765 23,417 7,721 43,678 22,951 23,019 1,048 857 4,850 1,468 11,550 3,247 14,345 139 249 2,343 143 11,280 190 17,830 425 419 2,657 439 12,018 1,873 21,829 717 626 2,979 788 12,886 3,834 3,508 1,247 3,623 966 3,431 818 3,399 800 3,361 779 115 -281 -192 -149 -224 -166 -263 -187 7,914 9,085 10,382 10,324 10,343 1,171 1,297 1,239 1,257 102,403 127,014 140,261 144,708 150,212 24,611 13,247 17,694 23,198 Percent distribution of wage and salary employment 1983 1994 2005 Low Moderate High 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 26.0 21.1 17.4 17.6 18.0 1.1 .5 .4 .3 .4 4.4 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.4 20.5 16.1 12.9 13.1 13.3 11.9 9.2 7.0 7.1 7.4 8.6 6.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 Service producing Transportation, communications, utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Finance, insurance, and real estate Services /1 Government Agriculture /2 Private households Nonagricultural self-employed and unpaid family workers /3 10,707 7,723 74.0 5.5 5.9 17.4 6.1 21.4 17.7 78.9 5.3 5.4 18.0 6.1 27.2 16.9 82.6 4.9 5.1 18.1 5.6 33.5 15.4 82.4 4.9 5.0 17.7 5.7 32.9 16.1 82.0 5.0 5.0 17.3 5.7 32.2 16.9 --- --- --- --- -- -- -- -- 1983-94 2.1 .2 -4.1 2.2 -.1 -.2 .2 Annual rate of change 1994-2005 Low Moderate High .9 1.3 1.7 -.8 -.4 .2 -2.6 -2.8 -1.5 .3 .9 1.6 -1.1 -.7 -.2 -1.5 -1.0 -.3 -.5 -.2 .1 2.7 1.8 1.4 2.5 2.2 4.4 1.7 1.4 .2 .4 1.0 .2 2.9 .1 1.7 .6 .6 1.1 .6 3.0 .9 2.0 1.0 .9 1.2 1.0 3.2 1.7 --- .3 -2.3 -.5 -1.5 -.6 -1.7 -.7 -1.9 -- 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 Total /4 -----2.0 .9 1.2 1.5 __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1/ Excludes SIC 074,5,8 (agricultural services) and 99 (nonclassifiable establishments), and is therefore not directly comparable with data published in Employment and Earnings 2/ Excludes government wage and salary workers, and includes private sector SIC 08, 09 (forestry and fisheries). 3/ Excludes SIC 08, 09 (forestry and fisheries). 4/ Employment data for wage and salary workers are from the BLS Current Employment Statistics (payroll) survey, which counts jobs, whereas self-employed, unpaid family worker, agricultural, and private household data are from the Current Population Survey (household survey), which counts workers. Note: Dash indicates data not available. Table 4. Employment by major occupational group, 1983, 1994, and projected 2005, moderate alternative projection [Numbers in thousands] Employment Change 1983 1994 2005 1983-94 1994-2005 Percent Percent Occupation Number Number Number Number change Number change Total, all occupations Executive, administrative, and managerial occupations Professional specialty occupations Technicians and related support occupations Marketing and sales occupations Administrative support occupations, including clerical Service occupations Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and related occupations Precision production, craft, and repair occupations Operators, fabricators, and laborers 102,404 9,591 12,639 3,409 10,497 18,874 15,577 3,712 12,731 15,374 127,014 12,903 17,314 4,439 13,990 23,178 20,239 3,762 14,047 17,142 144,708 15,071 22,387 5,316 16,502 24,172 24,832 3,650 14,880 17,898 24,610 3,312 4,675 1,030 3,493 4,304 4,662 50 1,316 1,768 Table 5A. 24.0 34.5 37.0 30.2 33.3 22.8 29.9 1.3 10.3 11.5 17,694 2,168 5,073 876 2,512 994 4,593 -112 833 757 The 10 industries with fastest projected job growth, 1994-2005, moderate alternative projection Industry Percent change Health services, n.e.c. 84.1 Residential care 82.7 Computer and data processing services 69.5 Individual and miscellaneous social services 68.8 Miscellaneous business services 68.4 Child day care services 59.4 Personnel supply services 58.1 Services to buildings 58.0 Miscellaneous equipment rental and leasing 50.8 Management and public relations 46.5 Table 5B. The 10 fastest growing occupations, 1994-2005, moderate alternative projection [Numbers in thousands] Employment 1994-2005 Numerical Percent Occupation 1994 2005 change change Personal and home care aides 179 391 212 119 Home health aides 420 848 428 102 13.9 16.8 29.3 19.7 18.0 4.3 22.7 -3.0 5.9 4.4 Systems analysts Computer engineers Physical and corrective therapy assistants and aides Electronic pagination systems workers Occupational therapy assistants and aides Physical therapists Residential counselors Human services workers 483 195 78 18 16 102 165 168 928 372 142 33 29 183 290 293 445 177 64 15 13 81 126 125 92 90 83 83 82 80 76 75 Table 5C. The 10 occupations with the largest job growth, 1994-2005, moderate alternative projection [Numbers in thousands] Employment 1994-2005 Numerical Percent Occupation 1994 2005 change change Cashiers 3,005 3,567 562 19 Janitors and cleaners, including maids and housekeeping cleaners 3,043 3,602 559 18 Salespersons, retail 3,842 4,374 532 14 Waiters and waitresses 1,847 2,326 479 26 Registered nurses 1,906 2,379 473 25 General managers and top executives 3,046 3,512 466 15 Systems analysts 483 928 445 92 Home health aides 420 848 428 102 Guards 867 1,282 415 48 Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 1,265 1,652 387 31 Table 6. Projected change in employment by education and training category, 1994-2005, moderate alternative projection [Numbers in thousands] Education category 1994 2005 Change, 1994-2005 Job openings due to growth and net replacement, 1994-2005 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Total 127,014 100.0 144,708 100.0 17,693 13.9 49,631 100.0 First professional degree 1,702 1.3 2,076 1.4 374 22.0 657 1.3 Doctor's degree 976 .8 1,156 .8 180 18.4 467 .9 Master's degree 1,500 1.2 1,927 1.3 427 28.5 658 1.3 Work experience, plus a bachelor's or higher degree 8,191 6.5 9,494 6.6 1,303 15.9 3,062 6.2 Bachelor's degree 14,007 11.0 17,771 12.3 3,764 26.9 6,684 13.5 Associate degree 3,956 3.1 4,919 3.4 963 24.3 1,594 3.2 Post-secondary vocational training 7,102 5.6 7,845 5.4 743 10.5 2,378 4.8 Work experience 9,994 7.9 11,325 7.8 1,331 13.3 3,554 7.2 Long-term on-the-job training 13,672 10.8 14,901 10.3 1,229 9.0 4,754 9.6 Moderate-term on-the-job training 16,219 12.8 17,083 11.8 864 5.3 5,670 11.4 Short-term on-the-job training 49,695 39.1 56,208 38.8 6,513 13.1 20,152 40.6